04-28-13 |
Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense was one of the weaker offenses in the National League at the beginning of the year, and it is much weaker now that they are so short-handed. Arizona is without Kubel, Eaton, Hill, and Bloomquist. Jon Garland isn't a dominating pitcher for Colorado, but he should be able to hold this DBacks lineup down. Patrick Corbin is one of the most impressive young pitchers in the game. Corbin has a spectacular 1.71 ERA so far this year, and I expect big things from him moving forward. Chase Field isn't nearly as big of a hitters ballpark with the roof closed (and it will be closed on Sunday). The under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The under is 3-0-1 in Arizona's last 4 games. The under is 3-0-1 in Colorado's last 4 games. Take the under here.
|
04-27-13 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Washington Nationals OVER 8 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Reds should finish the season with some of the best offensive numbers in the National League. Having said that, the Reds have totaled just one hit in each of their last two games in Washington. Dan Haren isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and I fully expect the Reds to be much better against him in this one. Mike Leake has a terrible history against Washington, and Leake lacks that dominating pitch to strike batters out. The over is 5-0-1 in Leake's last 6 starts against Washington. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 against a team with a winning record. Take the over.
|
04-26-13 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees OVER 9 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
102 |
16 h 25 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Ivan Nova and Josh Johnson have both been struggling in a big way this year. Both of them come into this one with an ERA above 6 and a WHIP higher than 1.8. That tells me that these guys are constantly working with runners on base. They are fighting hard to avoid the big inning. Both of these offenses are better than the average MLB offense and big innings in this one shouldn't be a surprise. The Blue Jays hitters have some great career numbers against Nova. Recent unders have given us line value on this play. Take the over.
|
04-25-13 |
Chicago Cubs v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 38 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins may have the two worst offenses in the National League. Miami is averaging just 2.57 runs per game. The Cubs are averaging 3.25 runs per game. Kevin Slowey has been pitching well against quality competition of late, and Edwin Jackson has been good on the road in his career. The under is 4-1 in the Cubs last 5. The under is 12-4-1 in the Marlins last 17 home games. The under is 4-0 in Slowey's last 4 starts. Look for an ugly low scoring game. Take the under.
|
04-24-13 |
Milwaukee: M Estrada v. San Diego: E Volquez OVER 7 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
20 h 41 m |
Show
|
*4 Star MLB Total Domination* Edinson Volquez has been one of baseball's worst pitchers so far this year. Volquez has an ERA of 8.84 so far this year. The Brewers offense is really clicking right now and that is bad news for Volquez. Marco Estrada doesn't have overpowering stuff and he routinely gives up 3 or 4 runs in a game. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here, and the over was a stunning 27-6 in his 33 games behind home plate last season. It should be noted that PetCo Park has moved in the fences this year and Padres' home games will likely be quite a bit higher scoring this year than last. The over is already 5-2-1 their this season. The over is 9-0 in the Brewers last 9 road games against a team with a winning percentage less than 40%. The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 home games against a righty. The over is 6-0 in Estrada's last 6 starts on the road against a team with a losing record. Take the over here.
|
04-24-13 |
Houston Rockets v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 212 |
|
102-105 |
Loss |
-104 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Rockets/Thunder Total Domination* The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder got to 211 points in Game One despite awful shooting numbers from Houston. The Rockets made 8 out of 36 three's and just 36% of their shots overall in that game. You have to think they'll hit more shots than that here. The Thunder should keep scoring against Houston's very poor defense, and both of these teams love to run and gun. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Look for a score near 220 here. Take the over.
|
04-24-13 |
Seattle: J Saunders v. Houston: L Harrell UNDER 8 |
|
3-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros have two of the worst offenses in baseball. These two teams have a really tough time stringing together many hits, so they are reliant on home runs to score. The problem for both of them is they really don't have many home run hitters. Joe Saunders pitched a shutout against the Astros earlier this year. Lucas Harrell has been great at home since the beginning of last year. The under is 8-3 in Harrell's last 11 home starts. The under is 5-2 in the Mariners last 7 road games. Take the under in this one.
|
04-22-13 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-113 |
20 h 12 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the lightest hitting teams in baseball right now. The DBacks didn't have a good offense to start with, and now they are without three of their top hitters due to injuries. At the same time, Arizona's pitching staff is very good. Wade Miley has been great since he arrived in Arizona last year. Miley has been consistently very good. Ryan Vogelsong has been great at home over the past two years and I think he'll be good against this short-handed Arizona offense. The under is 7-0 in the DBacks last 7 games. The under is 8-0 in the DBacks last 8 games as an underdog. The under is 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 road games. Take the under.
|
04-22-13 |
Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 7 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Justin Masterson has been great so far this year for the Cleveland Indians. Masterson has pitched two brilliant games in three outings this year. One of those was a complete game shutout against the White Sox. Masterson has a brilliant 2.60 ERA in 7 career starts at US Cellular Field in Chicago. The White Sox offense has been ice cold of late. Dylan Axelrod has been steadily improving as a starter, and he has the stuff to be a quality pitcher for the Sox. The wind will be blowing in for this one. The under is 6-0-1 in the White Sox last 7 games. Take the under here.
|
04-21-13 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 189.5 |
|
79-91 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Lakers/Spurs Total Domination* The Los Angeles Lakers are a totally different team without Kobe Bryant. They don't just lose his 27 points per game, but they also lose his leadership. If the last two regular season games are any example, the Lakers won't play nearly as fast without Bryant in the lineup. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol will be a much bigger part of the offense which should mean the Lakers will play more in the half court. San Antonio will have all their main guys back, but they aren't all 100 percent healthy. These two teams have a solid history of picking up the defense when they match up against each other. The under is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
|
04-20-13 |
Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 181 |
|
89-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Bulls/Nets Total Domination* The Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets play the same style of basketball. Both teams like to slow the game down and win with their defense. The tempo should be even slower than it was in the regular season, because the defenses pick up their intensity in the playoffs. Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of pace. Chicago can't win a game by outscoring the opponent, and Tom Thibodeau knows that. They'll be short-handed in this one, but they should still play good defense. I made this total 178 points. Take the under.
|
04-20-13 |
Detroit Tigers v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 9 |
|
0-10 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 50 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been slumping all year, and everyone has been waiting for them to break out of it. The Angels piled on the runs late in last night's game to win 8-1 over Detroit. By scoring 5 runs late in the game, you have to wonder if this team didn't just open up the flood gates. This Angels offense is too good to struggle for too terribly long. The Tigers offense has the highest batting average in baseball. Umpire Paul Emmel saw the over go 27-6 in his 33 games behind the dish last year. Rick Porcello and Garrett Richards are both capable of giving up the big inning and these are two strong offenses. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in Porcello's last 5 starts. The over is 6-0 in the Angels last 6 against a team with a winning record. Take the over.
|
04-20-13 |
Washington Nationals v. New York Mets OVER 7.5 |
|
7-6 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Mets are playing like a team with a lot of confidence right now. On paper, Washington may have the best team in baseball. The Mets won last night's big pitching showdown as Matt Harvey pitched a gem. Several New York Mets players have a decent history against Gio Gonzalez who will start Saturday's game for the Nationals. Jeremy Hefner has an ERA of almost 6 against Washington in his young career. The wind is expected to be blowing out at nearly 20 miles per hour during this game, and we have a solid over umpire in Gerry Davis. Take the over.
|
04-18-13 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 |
|
6-2 |
Win
|
103 |
17 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Patrick Corbin might not be a name that very many people know right now, but the young DBacks pitcher has a great future ahead of him. He was one of the top prospects for Arizona for several years, and he looks terrific early this season. The Yankees offense is obviously not the same without guys like ARod, Tex, Granderson, and Jeter. Arizona's lineup is one of the weakest in baseball, and I expect them to play a lot of low scoring games this year. Ron Kulpa is one of the better 'under' umpires in baseball. He has a wide strike zone and both Corbin and Phil Hughes should be able to take advantage of that. Both pitchers have pitched well with Kulpa behind the plate in the past. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in New York. Take the under.
|
04-17-13 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the weakest lineups in baseball right now. Jason Kubel, Adam Eaton, and Aaron Hill are all on the DL. The Yankees have tons of hitting stars on the DL. Wade Miley has continually defied the odds and pitched well in his first two years in the majors. He has an ERA of 1.60 in the month of April in his young career. C.C. Sabathia is in form early this year, and the DBacks have been struggling to score runs of late (3 or less in 3 of their last 4 games). It will be a cool night in the Bronx and the wind is expected to be blowing in. Phil Cuzzi is behind the dish and he has one of the biggest strike zones in the majors. The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Interleague road games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in New York. Take the under.
|
04-16-13 |
LA Anaheim: J Vargas v. Minnesota: M Pelfrey OVER 8.5 |
|
6-8 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 41 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jason Vargas and Mike Pelfrey are both pitchers who are extremely inconsistent. Both of them are capable of giving up a very big inning at any time. Pelfrey should struggle to get through the Angels very strong lineup. At the same time, Vargas has always struggled on the road and in three starts in Minnesota his ERA is above 8. The over is 7-0-1 in the Twins last 8 games after giving up 2 runs or less in the previous game. Basically, the Twins pitching staff is terrible and it is tough for them to string together too many strong outings. The over is 6-0-1 in the Angels last 7 as a road favorite. The over is 4-0-1 in the Angels last 5 Tuesday games. Take the over.
|
04-15-13 |
Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns OVER 209 |
|
112-119 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Houston Rockets have been the fastest paced team in the NBA for the season, but the Phoenix Suns have actually been playing faster than them over the last couple weeks. Lindsay Hunter's team doesn't have anything to play, and they aren't playing any defense right now. The Suns have been giving up points in huge bunches, and Houston can pile up the points. This game definitely means something to the Rockets who are trying to improve their playoff seed in the Western Conference. I had this one pegged at 215 points. Take the over.
|
04-13-13 |
Phoenix Suns v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 198 |
|
93-105 |
Push |
0 |
29 h 36 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Phoenix Suns have a new style of play under Coach Lindsay Hunter. Phoenix is pushing the tempo at every opportunity. The Suns are scoring a lot more points than they were, but they are also terrible on the defensive end. Phoenix has given up more than 110 points six times in the past month. Minnesota is getting some great play from guard Ricky Rubio. Under Rubio's leadership, Minnesota has been much more efficient on offense of late.This is a game between two teams that have nothing to play for at this point. Don't expect any defense. Take the over.
|
04-13-13 |
Detroit: Verlander v. Oakland: B Anderson UNDER 7 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
13 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* This is a matchup of two teams who are likely to be contenders all season long. They played twelve innings last night with Oakland winning 4-3. Both teams will be looking for a lot of innings from their starting pitcher, which shouldn't be a problem for Justin Verlander or Brett Anderson. Verlander has been baseball's most dominant pitcher over the last few years. Anderson has been injured a lot, but when he is healthy, he is an extremely good pitcher. Anderson has been especially dominant at home. Verlander has an ERA of right around 2 in his career against Oakland. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Oakland. The under is 6-1 in Verlander's last 7 starts in Oakland. Take the under.
|
04-12-13 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is better this year, but without Hanley Ramirez healthy they aren't what they will be later in the year. The bottom of the order for the Dodgers is among the worst in baseball, and that is holding them back right now. The Dodgers pitching staff has been the best in the majors so far this year. Clayton Kershaw hasn't given up a run this year, and the Arizona offense isn't going to scare anyone. Patrick Corbin is a budding star for the DBacks, and I expect a quality start from him. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the under.
|
04-12-13 |
New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 200.5 |
|
101-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The New York Knicks offense is absolutely on fire right now. The Knicks are a jump shooting team that can score points as well as anyone in the NBA when they are on, and right now they are on in a big way. Cleveland has quit playing any kind of defense down the stretch, and the Cavs like to play the game fast. Look for lots of open looks for the Knicks here. Kyrie Irving and the Cavs should be able to put up enough for this one to go over. Take the over. *This line has moved up quickly since I picked it Thursday afternoon- I would play this game up to 206, but no higher*
|
04-11-13 |
Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8 |
|
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total Domination* The Oakland A's offense was one of the worst in baseball last year and the team still managed to get into the playoffs by winning the extremely difficult AL West. The offense has been much much better so far this year. How good have they been? Oakland is first in the majors in runs scored per game at 6.44 runs per game. They obviously won't keep up that pace, but this offense is better than last year. Chris Young and Jed Lowrie were very good additions for the lineup. The Angels arguably have the best lineup in baseball with Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, and others. Jason Vargas dominated at home in Seattle, but he struggled on the road. Vargas won't have quite as friendly of a home field now, and he hasn't been good against Oakland in the past. A.J. Griffin dominated last year, but I think he comes back to earth a bit this season.
The over is 8-0 in Oakland's last 8 games overall. The over is 5-0-1 in Griffin's last 6 starts. The over is 9-0-2 in the Angels last 11 games as a favorite. The over is 4-0-1 in the Angels last 5 home games. The over is 5-0-2 in the Angels last 7 games after scoring at least 5 runs in the previous game. In all, a perfect 31-0 angle backs this play. Take the over.
|
04-10-13 |
Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 |
|
11-5 |
Win
|
103 |
20 h 12 m |
Show
|
*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels put a lot of runners on the bases last night, and I think they will again in this one. Tom Milone has been lights out at home in his young career, but he hasn't been very good at all on the road. The Angels offense hasn't clicked perfectly just yet, but they are mighty dangerous. Joe Blanton is absolutely capable of getting lit up by anyone at this point in his career, and the A's bats are looking better this year than they did last season. The over is 7-0 in Oakland's last 7 games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 against the AL West. The over is 3-0-2 in the Angels last 5 home games. Take the over.
|
04-10-13 |
Phoenix Suns v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 202 |
|
102-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 3 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Phoenix Suns have been pushing the tempo more than any other team in the NBA over the past few weeks. Lindsay Hunter has gotten this team to run and gun, but he hasn't gotten them to play any defense just yet. Dallas' offense is great this year with Mayo, Nowitzki, Carter, etc. The Mavericks are absolutely capable of putting up 120 points on a team like the Suns. Phoenix has been absolutely horrendous on the road of late. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the Suns last 5 games playing on zero days of rest. They were beaten last night in Houston. The over is 5-1-1 in the Mavericks last 7 home games. Take the over.
|
04-10-13 |
Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 56 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Here we have a combination of two things working in our favor. The Twins and Royals both have a much better offense than pitching staff and both of these teams are starting guys near the bottom of their rotation in this one. Liam Hendriks was beat around all season last year, and the Royals have several guys who have had lots of success against him. Wade Davis has never been very successful in his attempts to be a starting pitcher in the majors. I think both offenses should be able to quite a bit of damage in this one. Take the over.
|
04-09-13 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Texas Rangers OVER 10.5 |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Tampa Bay Rays lost on a brutal call by home plate umpire Marty Foster in last night's game. I expect Joe Maddon's team to be ready to play in this one. Nick Tepesch will be making his major league debut for the Rangers. Tepesch only had a 4.28 ERA in Double A last year, so I'm not convinced he can consistently get out big league hitters right now. Roberto Hernandez will be pitching for Tampa Bay, and he has an ERA over 5 in his career against Texas. The wind tunnel effect in Texas (wind in from right) has caused a lot of high scoring games in the past and the ball should be flying well in this one. The over is 6-0-1 in the Rangers last 7 home games against a righty. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the over.
|
04-09-13 |
Charlotte Bobcats v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 186.5 |
|
75-94 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 51 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Memphis Grizzlies have been getting back to the basics over the past week. Memphis struggled for a couple weeks and it was their defense that let them down. Now, they are back to playing the kind of defense that has them leading the league in points per game allowed. Charlotte has given up on this season, and the Bobcats are short-handed right now. I don't expect Charlotte to get above 85 points here. Memphis should be content to just win and move on to their next game with fresh legs rather than running this one up. The under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies last 5. The under is 19-9 in the Bobcats last 28 road games. Take the under.
|
04-08-13 |
Michigan v. Louisville UNDER 139 |
|
76-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Michigan/Louisville Total Domination* The Michigan Wolverines and Louisville Cardinals will play for the NCAA Basketball Championship on Monday night. It's no surprise that Louisville is here as they were the top seed overall, but Michigan is a small surprise here as a number four seed. The young Wolverines have really hit their stride in the NCAA Tournament.
Louisville likes to push the tempo, but the Cardinals also have what is arguably the best defense in college basketball. Russ Smith and Peyton Siva are defensive pests on the perimeter, and there isn't a better defensive center in the nation than Gorgui Dieng. Dieng should make it tough for Mitch McGary to score down low in this one, and he'll cut down on Trey Burke's ability to penetrate.
Louisville generally scores a lot of points off of opponents turnovers, but Michigan turns the ball over less than any team in the country. Michigan has plenty of ball handlers, and I expect them to handle the Louisville pressure relatively well.
On a neutral floor like this one and in a game of this magnitude, we often see the game slow down. Louisville likes to push the tempo, but the Cardinals offense isn't all that great in the halfcourt. If Michigan takes care of the ball, Louisville isn't likely to get nearly as many easy looks as they are accustomed to getting.
I had this one projected at 135 points. Take the under here.
|
04-08-13 |
Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
13 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Minnesota Twins have the worst pitching staff in the American League (and probably the majors overall as well). Kansas City has been expected to rise in the AL Central over the past couple years, but it has been their pitching that has held them back each season. Kansas City's offense exploded for 25 runs in their three-game series in Philadelphia, and I do expect the Royals to score a lot of runs this year.
Minnesota's offense isn't great, but when you have Mauer, Willingham, and Morneau in the middle of the order, you are going to put together some good innings. Ervin Santana hasn't been trustworthy over the last couple years, and he was very shaky in his debut for the Royals.
Kevin Correia doesn't have dominating stuff, and I expect the Royals to be able to get to him in this one. It doesn't hurt that the wind is expected to be blowing out on a Spring afternoon in Kansas City. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
|
04-07-13 |
Oakland A's v. Houston Astros UNDER 7.5 |
|
9-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Brett Anderson has the stuff to be one of the best pitcher in the American League. When Anderson is healthy he can dominate almost any lineup. He only gave up two runs in this first start of the season and he looked completely healthy. Houston has arguably the worst offense in all of baseball, and it won't surprise me a bit if Anderson complete shuts down the Astros. Lucas Harrell has quietly put together a nice stretch against Houston over the past year. Harrell had a lot of success last year despite pitching on a terrible team. He had an ERA below 2.5 at home last year. Neither offense is strong and both pitchers are consistently good. Take the under.
|
04-07-13 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 |
|
8-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 45 m |
Show
|
*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The Arizona Diamondbacks got rid of a lot of offense in the offseason. The Diamondbacks are going to win quite a few games this year because of their pitching staff, but I suspect a lot of those games are going to stay under the total. Ian Kennedy has turned into one of the better pitchers in the National League the past couple years. He has consistently put up nice numbers against everyone. Yovani Gallardo is a solid pitcher, and his numbers against Arizona are nothing short of stellar. Gallardo owns a 1.02 ERA against the Diamondbacks in 6 career starts. Ryan Braun may miss this game again and Aramis Ramirez is definitely out, so the Brewers offense is short-handed. The under is 5-0 in Arizona's last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. The under is 4-0 in Gallardo's last 4 starts against the DBacks. The under is 4-1 in Kennedy's last 5 starts against Milwaukee. The under is 7-1-1 in Paul Nauert's (a solid under umpire with a relatively large strike zone) last 9 games behind home plate.
|
04-06-13 |
Michigan v. Syracuse UNDER 131 |
|
61-56 |
Win
|
100 |
73 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Michigan/Syracuse Final 4 Total Domination* The Michigan Wolverines and Syracuse Orange will meet in the late game Saturday night in Atlanta. Michigan pulled off the best comeback of the NCAA Tournament against Kansas, and then dominated Florida. Syracuse took down the number one seeded Indiana Hoosiers and then dismantled Marquette in a really ugly game in the Elite 8 last Saturday.
While it is conventional wisdom to say that Michigan matches up well against Syracuse because the Wolverines have so many three-point shooters, that might not actually be the case. Syracuse has so much length that opposing offenses don't get good three-point opportunities. What they get is contested low percentage three-point shots. In fact, Syracuse allowed opponents to shoot only 28% from beyond the arc this year, which is third best in the nation.
Syracuse and Michigan are both comfortable playing at a slow tempo, and things normally slow down even more for games of this kind of importance. Syracuse is excellent defensively, but their offense isn't all that impressive. The Orange have perfected the matchup zone, which makes transition chances few and far between for their opponents.
None of Syracuse's postseason games have even gotten close to this posted total. I had this one projected at 127. Take the under here.
|
04-05-13 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7 |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
21 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star TGIF MLB Play of Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates have decided to take a chance on Jonathan Sanchez this year. Sanchez was awful last year for both Kansas City and Colorado. Sanchez had a 9.53 ERA in Colorado and a 7.56 ERA in Kansas City. The problem with Sanchez is his control is horrible. He can't locate the zone in crucial parts of the game, and he misses his location inside the zone a lot as well. Zack Greinke had an ERA above 5.5 this Spring. Greinke was beat up pretty good by the Pirates in his only start against them last year. A total of 7 is usually indicative of a couple Aces against light hitting teams. In this one, we get a total of 7 with two pitchers with big question marks. I like the value here on the over. Take the over.
|
04-05-13 |
Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns OVER 198 |
Top |
111-107 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 13 m |
Show
|
*5 Star NBA TOP Play Total Domination* The Phoenix Suns have really started to push the tempo of late, and the oddsmakers haven't been able to catch up to them. Lindsay Hunter's team is putting up shots quickly, and they aren't playing much defense at all. How bad has the Suns defense been? Phoenix has given up at least 112 points in 5 of their last 9 games. That's a ridiculously high number, and a team like Golden State is capable of scoring 115 or 120 on Phoenix. Golden State shoots the three ball as well as anyone in the league, and Phoenix gives up lots of open looks. The over is 9-2 in Golden State's last 11 against the Western Conference. The over is 5-1 in the Suns last 6 games. I made this one 207 points. Take the over big! *Note- This total has moved up steadily since I grabbed it on the open Thursday. I would play this one all the way up to 205 points*
|
04-04-13 |
Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates both have weak lineups. Pittsburgh's PNC Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, especially at this time of the season. It should be in the upper 40's with the wind blowing in during this one according to current weather reports. James McDonald has been an underrated starter for Pittsburgh over the last few years. McDonald struggled down the stretch last year, but his history is that he pitches his best in April. Travis Wood is a decent lefty, and the Pirates have struggled against lefties the past few seasons. The under is 7-0 in Pittsburgh's last 7 games. The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh. The under is 4-0 in the Pirates lats 4 against the NL Central. Take the under.
|
04-03-13 |
Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
21 h 38 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics are two of the lightest hitting teams in the majors. Doug Eddings has the single biggest strike zone of any umpire in the Majors, and he has been an 'under' bettors best friend for many years. Joe Saunders and Tommy Milone are two lefties who try to paint on the corners a lot. That should serve them well in this one with Eddings behind the dish. Milone was dominating at home last year, and the Mariners haven't hit him well at all in the past. Saunders is a fly ball pitcher, and it's very tough to hit it out in this ballpark (especially early in the season). The under is 5-0 in Milone's last 5 starts as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in Milone's last 5 starts against Seattle. Take the under.
|
04-03-13 |
Colorado Rockies v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Colorado Rockies are a team that I expect to be playing a lot of overs with this year. A combination of an impressive offense and a horrendous pitching staff should lead to a lot of high scoring games for Colorado. The Rockies have Juan Nicasio on the hill tonight, and he has yet to prove anything in his short MLB career. Nicasio faces a talented Brewers lineup tonight. Peralta starts for Milwaukee and he is a talented young prospect, but I don't think he is polished just yet. The Rockies aren't an easy lineup to ease into the Majors against. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The over is 5-0 in home plate umpire Tony Randazzo's last 5 games behind home plate. Take the over.
|
04-03-13 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 204 |
|
107-98 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 47 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Milwaukee Bucks have been a very good running team all year, and they have been even faster paced since Jim Boylan took over the team. Boylan is using Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis to really speed up the game for his team. Minnesota has been playing faster of late as well with Ricky Rubio really coming into his own as a point guard. The Timberwolves play virtually no defense, which should mean a big number here for the Bucks. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 against a team with a winning percentage under 40%. The over is 13-3 in the Bucks last 16 games following a win. Take the over.
|
04-02-13 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 45 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jaime Garcia has been a very good pitcher at home, but his road numbers in his career aren't very good at all. In fact, he has a 4.47 ERA in his career on the road. Arizona's lineup isn't all that good this year, but Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open and low humidity early in the year. The ball flies very well in this park with the roof open. Trevor Cahill struggled with the roof open last year, and the Cardinals have one of the best lineups in the National League. The over is 9-2 in Garcia's last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in the Cardinals last 8 as a road underdog. Take the over.
|
04-02-13 |
Colorado Rockies v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 14 m |
Show
|
*4 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Colorado Rockies are going to be one of the worst teams in the National League this year, but it won't be because of a bad offense. With Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the middle of the lineup, this team is going to score runs. The problem is they have an awful starting rotation and very shaky bullpen. Marco Estrada pitched pretty well last year for the Brewers, but I think he comes back to earth a bit this year. At the same time, the Brewers have some a good lineup with Braun, Weeks, Ramirez, and others. Jorge De La Rosa has never been a dominating pitcher, and he doesn't have that put away pitch. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The over is 4-0 in De La Rosa's last 4 starts. The over is 11-1 in Estrada's last 12 starts against a team with a losing record. Take the over.
|
03-31-13 |
Duke v. Louisville OVER 137 |
|
63-85 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Duke/Louisville Total Domination* The Duke Blue Devils and Louisville Cardinals met in an early season tournament in Nassau. Duke won that game 76-71. The Blue Devils made 23 free throws to Louisville's 9 made free throws. The shooting percentages were pretty normal for both teams in that game, and the final total got up to 147. Louisville's defense is very good, but that doesn't always equal low scoring games. The Cardinals full court pressure speeds up the game, and Duke loves to play fast this year. Duke has four or five guys who are capable of lighting it up from deep. Louisville's Russ Smith is playing the best basketball of his career right now. We'll get plenty of pace here, and unless the shooting numbers are terrible this one should go over. I made this one 141 points. The over is 7-0 in Louisville's last 7 games. The over is 7-0 in Duke's last 7 against the Big East. The over is 9-0 in Louisville's last 9 games played at a neutral site. Take the over.
|
03-30-13 |
Wichita State v. Ohio State UNDER 131.5 |
|
70-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Elite 8 Total Domination* The Wichita State Shockers are now the biggest Cinderella left in the NCAA Tournament. The Shockers are a better team than their record indicates, and they aren't afraid of anyone. On the other side, Ohio State has been as clutch as anyone in the tournament with two clutch game winners in their last two games. Both of these teams have been shooting about 50% from three-point range in their first three games in the NCAA Tournament, which has made their games much higher scoring than normal. That hot shooting has propped this total up to a higher number than it truly should be. Both of these teams are very good defensively and open shots should be tough to come by. Neither of these teams really like to run, so this could be a grind it out close game the whole way. The under is 6-0 in Ohio State's last 6 Saturday games. Take the under. *Note- This line has moved down since I played the under on Friday. I would take this one as low as 128.*
|
03-29-13 |
Oregon v. Louisville OVER 127.5 |
|
69-77 |
Win
|
100 |
100 h 7 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Oregon/Louisville Total Domination* The Oregon Ducks and Louisville Cardinals both like to push the tempo. Oregon has drawn two favorable matchups in their first two NCAA Tournament games. The Ducks one primary weakness is taking care of the ball against teams who use pressure defense. Louisville arguably has the best pressure defense in the nation. The Cardinals will full court press and force Artis and Loyd of Oregon into bad decisions. Louisville should get a lot of easy transition buckets in this one. Oregon has plenty of depth, and the Ducks can score in the half court. A number like this one is usually set aside only for games between teams who like to slow it down and/or can't score very well offensively. I don't think that fits in a matchup between these two teams who both rank in the top 1/3 of the nation in terms of pace. The over is 6-0 in Louisville's last 6 games. The over is 8-0 in the Cardinals last 8 neutral site games. Take the over.
|
03-25-13 |
RICHMOND v. WRIGHT STATE UNDER 127.5 |
|
51-57 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 23 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Play of the Day* The Richmond Spiders and Wright State Raiders meet Monday night in the CBI post-season tournament. Wright State has the home court advantage, and the Raiders like to slow the game down and win with their strong defense. Richmond is also more comfortable playing at a slow pace. The smaller post-season tournaments have been trending very high scoring, which gives us some good value on the under here. With two teams who use up the shot clock, I think the oddsmakers have adjusted this number a little too high. The under is 5-1 in Richmond's last 6 Monday games. The under is 4-1 in Wright State's last 5 games overall. Take the under.
|
03-24-13 |
Fla Gulf Coast v. San Diego St OVER 131.5 |
|
81-71 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 59 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* Florida Gulf Coast has been March Madness's biggest Cinderella this year. Gulf Coast dominated the majority of the game against Georgetown, and this team has now won two games against number two seeds in this year's tournament field (their other win was against Miami). San Diego State played a great second half to take down Oklahoma on Friday night. Both Gulf Coast and San Diego State prefer to play at a very quick pace. The oddsmakers have put a number on this game that would require both teams to shoot a low percentage from the floor. I made this one 136 points. Take the over.
|
03-24-13 |
St. Johns v. Virginia Cavaliers UNDER 124 |
|
50-68 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 47 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAABB Early Bird Special* The Virginia Cavaliers has always been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation under coach Tony Bennett. St. Johns likes to speed the game up a bit, but they are very poor on the offensive end. For the season, St. Johns is shooting 27 percent from 3-point range. St. Johns is much better on the defensive end. Even though they like to push the tempo, their games are often low-scoring. The extremely early start time is helpful to an under. These kids virtually never play a game at 11:00 AM Eastern time. The under is 5-0 in St. Johns last 5 against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last five road games. Under is 16-5 in Virginia's last 21 non-conference games. Take the under.
|
03-23-13 |
Eastern Kentucky v. Evansville OVER 137 |
|
72-86 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 8 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* This is a smaller postseason tournament play. I made this line 147 points. *Note-The line is quickly moving up here since I released this play two days ago. I would play this one up to 145 points.* Take the over!
|
03-22-13 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 192 |
|
117-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns met on February 26. In that game, the Suns won 84-83 in overtime. In regulation, the score was just 77 to 77. Phoenix has been giving up a ton of points on the road, but the Suns have been good defensively at home of late. Their home/road splits are pretty amazing for how much lower they are on their home floor. Minnesota is very short-handed right now, and the Timberwolves don't have enough firepower to put up a big number very often. The under is 8-2 in Minnesota's last 10 games overall. The under is 22-4 in the Suns last 26 home games. The under is 6-0 in the Suns last 6 games when their opponent gives up more than 100 points in the previous game. Take the under.
|
03-22-13 |
Villanova v. North Carolina OVER 141.5 |
|
71-78 |
Win
|
100 |
90 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The North Carolina Tar Heels found themselves late in the year by going uptempo and going with a smaller lineup. Marcus Paige really came into his own at the point guard spot. Paige was a liability on offense early in the year, but he is shooting well and leading the fast break very well now. Villanova's young guards are very turnover prone, and North Carolina can force turnovers and score in bunches. The Wildcats don't have it in them to slow the game down, so I expect a lot of fast paced basketball in this matchup. My numbers made this total 147 points. Look for a tight game with free throws late to push it over. The over is 4-0 in UNC's last 4 neutral site games. Take the over.
|
03-22-13 |
Mississippi v. Wisconsin UNDER 129.5 |
|
57-46 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Wisconsin Badgers are one of my favorite 'under' teams in the nation. Bo Ryan's team knows how to get the lead with their strong defense and then take the air out of the ball by running the clock and not turning it over. Mississippi is a high scoring team, but they haven't played against teams like Wisconsin in the SEC. Mississippi was running up high point totals against the likes of Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State. Wisconsin was busy locking down very good Big Ten teams. Look for Wisconsin's defense to frustrate Marshall Henderson and the Rebels. Wisconsin should get the lead and then grab control of the tempo. The under is 5-0 in Mississippi's last 5 following an ATS win. the under is 4-0 in the Rebels last 4. The under is 7-2 in the Badgers last 9 against the SEC. Take the under.
|
03-21-13 |
Akron v. Virginia Commonwealth OVER 134 |
|
42-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
68 h 23 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The VCU Rams are a terrible matchup for the Akron Zips right now. Akron is now without star point guard Alex Abreu. Without Abreu, Akron will have to rely on a freshman point guard and their big men to try to get the ball upcourt through VCU's Havoc full court pressure. It won't be easy. At the same time, Akron will have a massive advantage on the boards here. VCU struggles badly on the defensive glass. Look for the Rams to get easy opportunities off the press and the Zips to get easy opportunities on second chance shots inside the paint. I made this total 139. Take the over.
|
03-21-13 |
California v. UNLV OVER 128.5 |
Top |
64-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
94 h 51 m |
Show
|
*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* My numbers had this game at 135 points. Earlier this year these teams played to a 151 point total. The NCAA Tournament slows things down a bit, but not enough to warrant this extremely low total. UNLV played in a league with a lot of teams who slowed down the pace, but the Rebels are definitely at their best when running the fast break. Cal 's Allen Crabbe is the best pure scorer in this game, and I don't see anyone on the UNLV roster that can slow him down. Transition opportunities for both teams should present themselves early and often in this game. The over is 5-1 Cal's last 6 against the MWC. The over is 6-2 in UNLV's last 8 against the PAC 12. Take the over in a big way here!
|
03-21-13 |
South Dakota St v. Michigan OVER 138.5 |
|
56-71 |
Loss |
-108 |
28 h 37 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Bookie BEATDOWN* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are in the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year. They gave Baylor a scare in the first game last year, and they should be competitive here. South Dakota State shoots 40% from beyond the arc, and Michigan often leaves guys open outside. The Wolverines are an extremely efficient offensive team, and South Dakota State's defense has struggled all year. The Jackrabbits gave up more than 80 points in a game numerous times this year. They allowed more than 85 points in five games. Michigan will put up the points with their well balanced attack. Look for good shooting from both teams. The over is 10-2-1 in Michigan's last 13 neutral site games. The over is 12-3 in South Dakota State's last 15 non-conference games. Take the over.
|
03-21-13 |
Wichita State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 124.5 |
|
73-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
88 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Pittsburgh Panthers are usually known as a defensive minded team, and they are even more that way this season. Jamie Dixon's team plays great defense and slows the game down on the offensive end. Wichita State's defense is very good, and the Shockers should be able to hang with Pitt in this one. This has the feel of a game that stays close all the way, and the winner of this game probably won't get out of the 50's. I made this total 116. *Note- This line has dropped quickly since I released the play on Sunday night- I would play the total down to 118.5 but no lower*
|
03-20-13 |
High Point v. Cal Irvine OVER 129.5 |
|
71-80 |
Win
|
100 |
57 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The UC Irvine Anteaters have a lot of veterans on their team this year, and they almost made the NCAA Tournament. In the end, they fell in the title game to Pacific. I think Irvine will be fighting hard to keep winning in this small postseason tournament. The Anteaters offense is much better at home, and High Point's defense isn't particularly impressive. Both of these teams are comfortable playing a quick pace. I made this line 136. Take the over. *Note- The line has moved up here since I released this play on Monday afternoon. I would play this one up to 134.*
|
03-20-13 |
Oral Roberts v. UT Arlington OVER 127.5 |
|
84-76 |
Win
|
100 |
55 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The smaller postseason tournaments often have a lot of games that go over the posted total. Teams decide to pick up the tempo since there isn't as much left to play for. UT Arlington has been playing pretty fast of late anyways, so I was surprised to see a number this low thrown out on this game. I made this one 135 points. Take the over. *Note- This line has quickly moved up since I released the play on Monday afternoon. I would suggest playing this one up to 133, but not any higher.*
|
03-19-13 |
Louisiana Tech v. Florida State OVER 136 |
|
71-66 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs use full court pressure to force the tempo, and Florida State should be glad to run in this one as well. These NIT games often go higher scoring than a regular scoring game, and I think this one could go well over this total. *Note- This line has moved quickly since I selected it at the open. I would play this total up to 143.* Take the over.
|
03-19-13 |
Eastern Kentucky v. Gardner-Webb UNDER 132 |
|
69-62 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NIT Total Domination* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels and Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs are both very comfortable playing at a slow tempo. These NIT games are typically higher scoring than a regular season game, so we get a nice value on the under. Since both teams have played so slow during the year, I don't see these teams drastically speeding up here. Gardner Webb is a particularly low scoring team, and they will be the home team here. The under is 6-0-1 in Gardner's last 7 non-conference games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. Take the under.
|
03-18-13 |
Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Hornets OVER 196.5 |
|
93-72 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 35 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Golden State Warriors had been struggling in a big way of late, but last night's 108-78 win in Houston was just what the doctor ordered for this team. Golden State shoots the three-ball better than anyone in the NBA, and the Hornets don't guard the perimeter well. New Orleans' offense has been much better in the last few weeks, and they have been a very solid over team of late. The first two meetings between these two this year have finished at 199 and 228 points. The over is 7-1 in the Hornets last 8 home games. The over is 9-1 in the Warriors last 10 against a team with a winning percentage below 40%. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in New Orleans. Take the over.
|
03-17-13 |
Miami Heat v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 196 |
|
108-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Early Bird Special* The Miami Heat's huge winning streak is well documented, but most people don't realize that it is their improved defense that is leading their team to victory. Miami is capable of playing the best defense in the NBA when they are extremely motivated. There is no doubt that this team wants to keep the winning streak alive so I expect to see a strong defensive performance in this one. Toronto is better on the defensive end since they picked up Rudy Gay. The Raptors shouldn't want to get into an up and down game with the Heat. The under is 4-0 in the Heat's last 4 road games. The under is 6-0 in Toronto's last 6 against the Southeast Division. The under is 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 home games. Take the under.
|
03-16-13 |
Phoenix Suns v. Washington Wizards UNDER 189.5 |
|
105-127 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 1 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Phoenix Suns have started playing a little bit more defense for new coach Lindsay Hunter. The Suns aren't playing particularly fast, and their offense is one of the least efficient in the NBA. Washington continues to baffle the oddsmakers by playing so many games that finish under the total this year. The under is 38-23-3 in the Wizards games this year. Washington actually ranks third in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. Their new high intensity defense should keep this one low scoring as well. Look for a lot of missed shots from both teams. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two. The under is 6-1 in the Suns last 7 against a team with a losing record. Take the under.
|
03-16-13 |
Massachusetts v. Virginia Commonwealth OVER 150 |
|
62-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The VCU Rams use their "havoc" defense to force the pace and force more turnovers than any other team in the nation. UMass plays even faster than VCU, and the Minutemen aren't about to slow this game down. Their first meeting this year played to a total of 154 points, and the shooting numbers weren't particularly good. With two full court pressure teams, this will be an all out track meet. Barring some really bad shooting percentages, this should go over. The over is 4-0 in UMass' last 4 neutral site games. The over is 7-1 in VCU's last 8 games. The over is 8-2 in UMass' last 10 games. Take the over. *This is a play for me up to 153 points*
|
03-15-13 |
Chicago Bulls v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 190 |
|
113-95 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star TGIF NBA Total Domination* The Chicago Bulls were absolutely throttled 121-79 in Sacramento two nights ago. The Bulls might not be a great team without Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson, and Richard Hamilton; but I do believe this team will come motivated after a clunker like that game against the Kings was. Tom Thibodeau's team is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and they will be slowing this game down in a big way to try to keep it close. The Bulls don't have the offensive weapons that the Warriors have, and they know that. Golden State hasn't been shooting it quite as well of late, and I think they'll struggle to find open looks against a Bulls team that guards well on a normal night. Interestingly, the under is 7-1 in the Bulls last 8 following a loss by 10 points or more. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
|
03-15-13 |
Arizona v. UCLA OVER 142 |
|
64-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Arizona/UCLA Totals Takedown* The Arizona Wildcats and UCLA Bruins are both very comfortable playing a fast paced game. Their last meeting finished at 143 points, and the shooting numbers weren't particularly great. There were only 26 free throws between the two teams all game, and I would expect more trips to the charity stripe in this game. UCLA has Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams while Arizona has Mark Lyons and Solomon Hill. All of these guys are capable of putting up a ton of points in a short period of time. The posted total was 148 in their last meeting, and I think this has been adjusted down too far. Take the over.
|
03-15-13 |
Iowa State v. Kansas OVER 144 |
|
73-88 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 32 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Iowa State Cyclones are sure to be fired up for this opportunity. Iowa State lost to Kansas in overtime twice during the regular season, and the Cyclones could have easily won both of those games. Iowa State pushes the tempo more than any other team in the Big 12, and they can light it up from long range. Kansas isn't going to slow the game down, and they have the ability to score inside against Iowa State. Both regular season games were well over this posted total before they ever got to overtime. The over is 23-5 in Iowa State's last 28 games overall, so the oddsmakers haven't caught up to this team all year. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over. *Note- This total has moved up- I would play this as high as over 146*
|
03-12-13 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat UNDER 197.5 |
|
81-98 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 40 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Miami Heat are clearly the best team in the NBA right now. They have won 18 straight games and they'll try to make it 19 in this one. When this team is next to unbeatable is when they are playing terrific half court defense. In six straight games, their opponent has scored 96 points or less. Atlanta has been slowing down the pace and playing better defense since the trade deadline. The last five meetings between these teams have all stayed under this posted total. The under is 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 road games. The under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings between these two in Miami. I projected this one at 192 points. Take the under here.
|
03-10-13 |
Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 195 |
|
81-90 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Bulls/Lakers Total Domination* The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing quite a bit better of late, but they still have plenty of room for improvement. Chicago is extremely short-handed right now, and the Bulls will absolutely have to slow the game down here to have a chance to hang around. Without any real scoring threats in the backcourt, Chicago is awfully limited on the offensive end. Dwight Howard's defense has been much better of late, and he should slow down Noah and Boozer. On the other side, Chicago's gritty defense generally makes open shots difficult to come by for their opponent. The Lakers only put up 83 points against Chicago in January. This is a 12:30 pm local time start and that could easily mean some tired legs and poor shooting numbers. The under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in the Lakers last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take the under.
|
03-09-13 |
Cal St-Fullerton v. Cal Poly Slo UNDER 142 |
|
60-62 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal State Fullerton Titans have been one of the highest scoring teams in the nation this year, but two of their top three scorers are doubtful for this game. Without Seeley and Yeager in the lineup, this is a totally different offense. Fullerton has been held in the 50's twice in their last three games. Cal Poly has the best defense in the Big West and they slow the game down in a big way. Even with everyone healthy earlier this year these two played to a 137 final. The under is 5-0 in Fullerton's last 5. The under is 6-0 in Cal Poly's last 6 Saturday games. Take the under.
|
03-09-13 |
South Dakota v. Western Illinois UNDER 127 |
|
53-54 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* The Western Illinois Leathernecks are the single slowest team in the nation in terms of possessions per game. South Dakota is fairly quick, but I don't think they'll be able to speed up this game. It's win or go home for both of these teams and that generally means better defense and a slower pace to the game. I had this one projected at 120 points. The under is 39-19-2 in Western Illinois' last 60 games. Look for a slow paced game that stays well under the total. Take the under here.
|
03-09-13 |
William Mary v. James Madison UNDER 137 |
Top |
67-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 34 m |
Show
|
*5 Star NCAA BB Top Play Total* The William & Mary Tribe and James Madison Dukes meet at Richmond Coliseum to fight for a spot in the CAA semifinals. The CAA Tournament is wide open this year, so both of these teams have a real shot at getting to the finals. This gym is noted for being tough on shooters with its tough rims and spacious interior. The under is 4-0 in James Madison's last 4 neutral site games. The under is 5-0 in William & Mary's last 5 neutral site games. Look for the defenses to win out in a tough battle here. Take the under big! *Note- I would play this one all the way down to 132*
|
03-09-13 |
Hofstra v. Delaware UNDER 130 |
Top |
57-62 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play CRUSHER* The Hofstra Pride are so awful on the offensive end. A total this high in a Hofstra game is almost unheard of. In fact, in Hofstra's last 19 games only two of them have gone above this total and both of them finished at 131 (a single point above this). Delaware does like to run, but the Blue Hens also play very good defense. The first two meetings between these teams this year finished at 123 and 113 points. On a neutral floor I don't expect this one to be any higher. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. Take the under big!
|
03-09-13 |
Drexel v. George Mason UNDER 128.5 |
|
54-60 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Drexel Dragons are one of the best in the CAA at slowing the game down and winning with ball control. George Mason will try to push the pace some, but in a game that means so much to both teams look for the offenses to be tight. This is being played at a neutral court with tough shooting backdrops. I projected this one at 124. Take the under.
|
03-08-13 |
Troy v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 124 |
|
81-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Sun Belt Conference Tournament is played at a neutral site in Hot Springs. This venue has been noted for its tight rims and tough shooting backdrops for many years. Here we have two teams who are better on defense than they are on offense. They are both also much more comfortable playing at a slow tempo than they are pushing the pace. One regular season meeting went under while another went over, but the one that went over saw amazing 3 point shooting numbers from Fla. Atlantic. I had this one projected at 120. The under is 5-1 in Troy's last 6. Take the under.
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03-08-13 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics UNDER 193 |
|
102-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star TGIF NBA Total Domination* The Atlanta Hawks went through a brief period around the trade deadline where they were playing some miserable basketball. During that period they played virtually no defense. The oddsmakers have moved their totals up a lot because of that, but Atlanta is once again playing better over the past week or so, and they have been on a nice under run. Boston is playing much better halfcourt defense of late. Paul Pierce is dinged up right now and him being less than 100 percent definitely hurts the Celtics offense. I had this one projected at 185 points. The under is 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 road games. The under is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 following a win. Take the under. *Note- I played this game at the open and it has since dropped, but I would play this down to 187 points.*
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03-07-13 |
Southern Illinois v. Missouri State UNDER 122 |
|
53-61 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* The Southern Illinois Salukis and Missouri State Bears are both poor offensive teams. At a neutral site in St. Louis, I expect the shooting percentages to be especially low in this one. Arch Madness in the MVC has seen 15 of the past 18 games go under the total in the past two years. I had this one projected at 114 points. I would play this one down to 117. Look for an ugly low scoring game here. Take the under.
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03-07-13 |
Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 122 |
|
43-58 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Wisconsin/Michigan State Total* The Wisconsin Badgers have been one of my favorite 'under' teams for the past few years. Bo Ryan's teams are terrific at slowing the game down and taking care of the ball. Michigan State has lost three straight going into this one and Tom Izzo's team should be focused on the defensive end today. The stakes are high here since both teams still have a chance at the Big Ten title. Look for both defenses to bring their "A Game" and keep this one low scoring. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings at Michigan State. Take the under.
|
03-07-13 |
Liberty Flames v. High Point UNDER 143 |
|
61-60 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* Going under the radar for this play. The Liberty Flames and High Point Panthers met twice in the regular season. The first meeting finished at 149 points in OT (it was 116 before OT). The second finished at 141 points. This game will be played on a neutral site, which generally leads to lower scoring. In addition, this is an elimination game where the pace tends to slow down. I projected this one at 137 points. Both of these teams are solid on the defensive end. Look for the defenses to control this game. Take the under.
|
03-07-13 |
SC Upstate v. Jacksonville UNDER 145 |
|
76-62 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* I had this one projected at 139 points. This is one of those neutral site games that tend to be much lower scoring than regular season meetings where the teams are accustomed to the gyms. Take the under here.
|
03-07-13 |
Drake v. Bradley UNDER 145 |
|
81-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle Total* The Drake Bulldogs and Bradley Braves play in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tonight. "Arch Madness" is the name of this terrific conference tourney. History tells us that the under is the way to go in this tournament. In the past two years, the under is 15-3 in the Arch Madness tournament in St. Louis. The rims are tough here and it is a tough neutral site. Drake and Bradley played two games under the total in regulation this year, and I think this has value written all over it. The under is 7-0 in Drake's last 7 Thursday games. The under is 6-0 in Bradley's last 6 neutral site games. I'd play this one down to 138. Take the under.
|
03-07-13 |
Morehead State v. Tennessee State OVER 142 |
|
75-88 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB OVC Total* The Morehead State Eagles and Tennessee State Tigers just played to a 101-100 final score last week. I certainly don't expect that again, but I also don't think the game will be 60 points lower this time around. I had this one projected at 148 points. Look for a close game here, which should mean a lot of free throws for both teams. The over is 7-0 in Tennessee State's last 7. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the over in this one.
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03-06-13 |
Eastern Illinois v. SE Missouri State UNDER 138 |
|
68-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Eastern Illinois Panthers and Southeast Missouri State Redhawks kick off the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament tonight in Nashville. This conference tournament is played at Municipal Auditorium, where the shooting backdrops are noted to be very difficult. Neutral site games like this usually are lined two or three points lower than a regular season game. Eastern Illinois is terrific at forcing the opponent to play to their slow style. The under is 5-1 in Eastern Illinois' last 6 neutral site games. Take the under.
|
03-06-13 |
Lipscomb v. Mercer UNDER 139.5 |
|
48-82 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle Total* The Mercer Bears have been an absolute under machine at home. They are playing this tournament game on their home floor. Lipscomb likes to push the tempo, but Mercer has been able to slow everyone down this year with their stall ball. Tournament basketball tends to slow down a bit to start with, and this number was 6.5 points higher than I projected it. The under is 11-0-1 in Mercer's last 12 home games. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games against a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Lipscomb's last 4 road games. Take the under.
|
03-06-13 |
Quinnipiac v. Long Island OVER 152 |
|
83-91 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
03-06-13 |
Colgate v. Lehigh Mountain UNDER 142 |
|
64-71 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
03-05-13 |
Boston College v. Clemson UNDER 122.5 |
|
68-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* Clemson likes to slow the game down and rely on ball control and their defense to win games. Boston College isn't the type of team to speed the game up, and their offense isn't good at all. Clemson will be without K.J. McDaniels here, and he averages 11 points per game. That makes it even more likely that the Tigers will struggle to put up points in this one. The pace here should be very slow, so it will take some high shooting percentages to push this over. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two at Clemson. Take the under.
|
03-04-13 |
Orlando Magic v. New Orleans Hornets OVER 188.5 |
Top |
105-102 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 55 m |
Show
|
*5 Star NBA TOP Total Play* The Orlando Magic aren't any good now, but they are still running and gunning. This team is going to give up points about as much as anyone in the NBA over the course of the rest of the season. Orlando has allowed 108 points or more in four of their last five games. Eric Gordon is back in the lineup and that means the Hornets should push the tempo more and be more dynamic offensively. New Orleans has been shooting the ball much better of late. The over is 4-0 in Orlando's last 4 on zero days of rest. The over is 12-2 in their last 14 against the Western Conference. The over is 5-0 in the Hornets last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 against the Eastern Conference. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 games. Take the over! *Note: I played this game when the line was first released on Sunday afternoon. I made this total 198 points, so I would play it all the way up to 195 points for a 5 Star Play and up to 196 as a 3 star Play*
|
03-03-13 |
Virginia Cavaliers v. Boston College UNDER 124.5 |
|
52-53 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Virginia Cavaliers still play at one of the slowest paces in all of basketball. Tony Bennett's team is very good defensively, but they also shoot three-ball very well. Boston College isn't very good this year, but they have given a lot of top teams (Duke, Miami, etc) a very tough time at home. The Eagles defense should hold their own at home and keep this competitive. Boston College isn't comfortable pushing the tempo, so this one should stay slow. The under is 14-6 in Boston College's last 20 home games. Take the under.
|
03-02-13 |
Cal Santa Barbara v. Cal St-Northridge OVER 137 |
|
83-74 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
03-02-13 |
Montana v. Montana State UNDER 140 |
|
71-68 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
03-02-13 |
Arizona v. UCLA OVER 147.5 |
|
69-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Arizona/UCLA Total* The first meeting between these two was an up and down affair, and I don't see anything that would make this game any different. These teams are more comfortable out in the open floor. Both of these offenses are quite a bit better than the defenses. Shabazz Muhammad and the UCLA Bruins offense have gotten much better over the past month or so. UCLA put up 84 on Arizona on the road, and they should get near that number again. Arizona should be able to win the battle on the boards and get second chance points. Take the over.
|
03-02-13 |
San Jose St v. Louisiana Tech OVER 129.5 |
|
61-88 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
|
03-02-13 |
Florida International v. Florida Atlantic OVER 135.5 |
|
60-77 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Florida Atlantic Owls have been a much better team at home all year. Greg Gantt is one of the best three-point shooters in the country, and he'll be going against an FIU team that plays a zone defense. Look for Florida Atlantic to knock down a lot of long range jumpers here. FIU presses and that will bother Florida Atlantic. I expect plenty of easy opportunities in transition for the Golden Panthers. The over is 10-3 in the Owls last 13 home games. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings at Florida Atlantic. Take the over.
|
03-02-13 |
South Carolina v. Texas A&M UNDER 124.5 |
|
56-74 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Here is a matchup between two teams that are more comfortable slowing the game down. South Carolina tried to run earlier this year, but they changed their style midseason after they realized their offense wasn't capable of keeping up with most in the SEC. Texas A&M is one of the slowest paced teams in the league, and they'll definitely want a half court game on their home floor. Look for the slow tempo and poor shooting numbers to turn this into an ugly game. Take the under.
|
03-02-13 |
James Madison v. William Mary UNDER 132 |
|
69-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
|
03-02-13 |
IUPU Ft Wayne v. Oakland OVER 146 |
|
74-72 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are one of my favorite 'over' teams. Oakland loves to push the tempo of the game, and their defense is horrendous. The team struggled a bit offensively earlier this year, but they have been firing on all cylinders again recently. Fort Wayne is a team that plays to the style of the opponent, so we should see a high scoring game. The over is 6-0 in Oakland's last 6 Saturday games. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
|
03-02-13 |
UL - Lafayette v. UL - Monroe OVER 142 |
|
71-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
03-02-13 |
SIU Edwardsville v. Eastern Illinois UNDER 124 |
|
46-61 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
|
03-02-13 |
Colorado v. California UNDER 130 |
|
46-62 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Colorado Buffaloes are heating up just as they did last year when they won the PAC 12 Conference Tournament. Colorado is doing it with tremendous defense this year. Cal has usually been an offensive-minded team, but the Golden Bears are also one of the top defensive teams in the PAC 12 this year. Both teams have been playing a lot of very low scoring games of late. Look for this one to be a defensive battle. The under is 7-0 in Colorado's last 7 road games. The under is 4-0 in Cal's last 4 Saturday games. The under is 5-0 in Colorado's last 5 following a win. The under is 7-1 in Cal's last 8 home games. The under is 21-5 in Colorado's last 26 against the PAC 12. Take the under.
|
03-02-13 |
Idaho v. Texas State OVER 146 |
|
90-81 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
03-02-13 |
Youngstown State v. Wright State UNDER 128 |
|
45-72 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
|