04-02-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 198 |
|
94-88 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder have met three times already this year. The final score has ended at 193, 195, and 195 points. The posted total on those games was 192, 193, and 193.5. We got a total about five points higher here. Memphis knows they can't just run and gun with Oklahoma City, so I expect them to slow this game down. This is a case where I believe the odds got a little out of control. Since the total here is set so much higher, I think the under is the play. Take the under.
|
04-02-12 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Washington Wizards OVER 203.5 |
|
112-98 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* Milwaukee is one of my favorite 'over' teams. The Bucks can really push the tempo. Brandon Jennings now has Monta Ellis to help him push the pace in the backcourt. Washington has seen 11 straight games go under the posted total. The Wizards have played against a lot of teams that slow the tempo down, but that won't be the case tonight. The over is 22-8 in the Bucks last 30 games. The last time these two teams played the score was 119-118. The total is posted significantly lower here because the Wizards are on an 'under' streak. Look for this one to go well over the posted total. Take the over.
|
04-01-12 |
Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 189.5 |
|
92-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards have changed more than any other team in the NBA since the trade deadline. They still aren't a very good team, but they do at least try on the defensive end now. Washington isn't in quite as much of a hurry on the offensive end either. The under is a perfect 10-0 in Washington's last 10 games overall. Toronto isn't a high-powered offensive team, and I think this game will be a sloppy one. Look for poor shooting and a slow tempo to keep this one under the posted total.
|
04-01-12 |
Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic OVER 201.5 |
|
104-101 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 46 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Denver Nuggets are the worst team in the league at guarding beyond the three-point line. Orlando relies heavily on three-point shooting from guys like Anderson, Redick, Richardson, and Nelson. Look for the Magic to knock down a ton of three-point shots in this game. Denver pushes the pace more than any team in the NBA, and the Nuggets should be able to pile up the points against a mediocre Orlando defense. The over is 4-1 in Orlando's last 5. The over is 5-2 in Denver's last 7. Take the over.
|
03-31-12 |
New Jersey Nets v. Sacramento Kings OVER 209.5 |
|
111-99 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout Total* The New Jersey Nets are a strange team in that they are quite a bit better on the road than they are at home. The Nets are 11-16 on the road and only 7-19 at home. Sacramento is playing at a breakneck pace right now. The Kings are putting up 90 shots or more almost every game. The Nets are poor defensively, and I think they'll keep the tempo quick as well with Deron Williams at the point. Four of the Kings last five home games have finished with at least 214 total points. Take the over here.
|
03-31-12 |
Ohio State v. Kansas OVER 136 |
Top |
62-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
144 h 50 m |
Show
|
*5 Star Final Four Top Total* Ohio State and Kansas will square off in the second Final Four matchup Saturday night. This should be a great game because of the intriguing matchups on the court. Thomas Robinson against Jared Sullinger and Aaron Craft against Tyshawn Taylor are two to watch. Aaron Craft is the best on the ball defender in the nation and he has 13 steals already in the NCAA Tournament. Tyshawn Taylor has 124 turnovers this year and he is careless with the ball. Look for Craft to force Taylor into quite a few turnovers in this one. Ohio State has picked up the tempo a lot over the last few games, and they are playing their best basketball of the year. The over is 10-1 in Ohio State's last 11 games. Look for Ohio State to use their athleticism in the open floor so Kansas can't set up their great half court defense. Both teams have plenty of guys who can score. In addition, this game should be close all the way, and I fully expect a lot of free throws in this game. Take the over big here.
|
03-30-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 191 |
Top |
100-79 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
*5 Star TGIF Top Total* Minnesota isn't able to push the tempo the same way right now, because they have so many injuries. In addition to Rubio being out for the year, they will be without Barea, Beasley, and Pekovic in this game. Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and the Celtics are great at controlling the tempo. The referee crew here makes this a stronger play for me. Lead offical Brent Barnaky is 26-6 to the 'under' this year. The other two officials are a combined 46-28 to the under. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the under big.
|
03-30-12 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 203 |
|
121-84 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks are definitely one of my favorite teams to bet the 'over' with right now. Since adding Monta Ellis this team runs and guns more than ever. Plenty of guys on this team are capable of scoring a lot of points in a small amount of time. Cleveland likes to push the tempo as well, but their offense has struggled of late. I think the Cavs offense will benefit from the quick pace of the Bucks, and Milwaukee isn't very good defensively. The over is 26-9 in the Bucks last 35. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. Take the over.
|
03-30-12 |
New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188.5 |
|
90-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 10 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The New York Knicks are a completely different team under Mike Woodson. Woodson likes the team to run offensive sets in the half court and the team focuses much more on defense. They aren't into simply outscoring teams the way they used to be. Atlanta is one of the better defensive teams in the league and they slow the pace down as well. The first meeting between these two finished at 99-82. The under is 6-1 in the Knicks last 7. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the under here.
|
03-30-12 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards UNDER 187 |
|
76-97 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Philadelphia 76ers are a nice under team because of the way they control the tempo and play solid defense. Washington was one of the fastest paced teams in the league earlier this year, but since the trade deadline they have slowed down in a big way. This has given the under some big value of late. The under is 9-0 in Washington's last 9 games. The under is 7-3 in the Sixers last 10 road games. I projected this one at 183 or 184 points. Look for a half court game that stays under the posted total. Take the under.
|
03-29-12 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 189 |
|
85-106 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Finals Rematch Total* Dallas and Miami met on Christmas Day in the NBA Season Opener and Miami won easily. The Heat have played well overall this year, but their offense has been surprisingly poor of late. Only once in the last ten games have they topped 100 points. That includes two overtime games where the Heat had 94 and 87 points at the end of regulation. The first game of the season had a total half a point lower than this, which seems odd since Miami is struggling badly on offense now. Dallas has been picking up the defense of late. The under is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 home games. Look for both defenses to play well. Take the under.
|
03-29-12 |
Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 194.5 |
|
89-93 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards have been a completely different team of late. Since the trade deadline the team has slowed down their pace quite a bit. No longer do they have Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche jacking up shots. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 games for Washington. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 Thursday games. These two teams played to a 85-83 final last week. Both of these teams have been playing better defense of late. I projected this line at 191. Take the under.
|
03-28-12 |
Orlando Magic v. New York Knicks UNDER 189 |
|
86-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The New York Knicks have been playing much better defense under Mike Woodson. In addition, they have slowed down the game quite a bit. This is now a half court team that runs sets to get the ball to a certain spot on the floor. Orlando is one of the slower teams in the league as far as tempo. The last meeting between these two went over this total, but that was before the Knicks slowed down the pace. In addition, Orlando made 17 3 pointer's in that game. The under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 games. Take the under.
|
03-28-12 |
Denver Nuggets v. Toronto Raptors OVER 202 |
|
96-105 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Raptors are a classic team that plays to the pace of their opponent. Toronto doesn't control the tempo at all, but Denver definitely can. The Nuggets play at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. Denver has scored at least 100 points in four straight games, and the Toronto defense isn't good at all. DeMar Derozan should be back for Toronto in this one, which is good for the over as well. I projected this game at 205 points. The over is 5-0 in the Nuggets last 5 games overall. Take the over.
|
03-27-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 198 |
|
104-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout Total* Golden State is short-handed right now, and they shouldn't be able to pile up too many points against a defensive-minded team like the Lakers. Los Angeles is one of the slower teams in the NBA in terms of pace. Earlier this year the teams met and the final was 187, and that was with Golden State at full strength. It doesn't hurt that we got a nice officiating crew in this one. Mike Callahan is here and the 'under' is 25-9 in his 34 games this season. Take the under in this one.
|
03-27-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trailblazers OVER 198.5 |
|
109-95 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Portland Trail Blazers seem to have picked up the pace a bit under Coach Kanales. Portland doesn't play much defense, and the Thunder should be able to take advantage of that. The first two meetings this year both easily went over the posted total. I expected this line to be 201 or so. The Thunder shoot 80% from the free throw line as a team, and in a game that could be close to the end that could be a major plus in this matchup. In 8 of their last 9 games the Thunder have scored at least 103 points. Take the over here.
|
03-27-12 |
Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 193.5 |
|
81-90 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* I leaned to the 'under' in this one before seeing the referee's and that pushed me to make this a play. The refs in this game have a combined record to the under of a stunning 70-35. Lead official Brent Barnaky is 24-6 to the under. Expect less fouls called than a normal game here. Both teams have played some overs lately, which is giving us a bit of an inflated line. Kevin Martin and Kyle Lowry are two of the Rockets best scorers, but they are out for this one. I projected this one at 190. Take the under.
|
03-27-12 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 201 |
|
86-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* Since Ricky Rubio left the lineup with a season-ending injury, the Timberwolves have gotten much worse, but they are also having higher scoring games. The team plays very little defense and they don't use the shot clock much at all. Six of their last eight games have finished with a total of at least 214 points. The Grizzlies are healthy now and they can put up the points against teams that don't play defense. Look for Memphis to get Randolph going some in this game. The over is 15-5 in the TWolves last 20 road games. Take the over.
|
03-26-12 |
Denver Nuggets v. Chicago Bulls OVER 199 |
|
108-91 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* No one in the NBA plays at a tempo as quick as the Denver Nuggets. The Bulls have had some high scoring games this year with Derrick Rose out of the lineup. Chicago should get plenty of second chance opportunities because of their advantage down low in this one. At the same time, Ty Lawson will have the quickness advantage without Rose in the lineup for the Bulls. The over is 13-5 in the Nuggets last 18 games. I projected this one at 202 points. Look for a quick tempo here. Take the over in this one.
|
03-26-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 184 |
|
102-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 53 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Top Total* The Boston Celtics will be without Ray Allen on Monday night. Boston is playing in a dreaded back-to-back situation, and this Celtics team just finished an eight game road stand. They played one home and now head back on the road for this one right away. Charlotte has been competing harder of late. The Bobcats should have more energy than the Celtics in this game. The under is 4-1 in the Celtics last 5 games. I projected this line at 181 points. Look for a slow paced game where both teams struggle from the floor. Take the under.
|
03-26-12 |
Orlando Magic v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 182.5 |
|
117-101 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Orlando has slowed the pace down quite a bit of late. They are now one of the slowest paced teams in teams of possessions per game in the entire NBA. Toronto will be without DeMar Derozan in this one and he averages 16.5 points per game. The Raptors are a poor team offensively to start with, and without Derozan breaking down the defense it could be a long night for their offense. The under is a perfect 9-0 in the Raptors last 9 Monday games at home. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 against the Eastern Conference. I'll back this 13-0 winning angle here. Take the under.
|
03-25-12 |
Oakland v. Utah State UNDER 153 |
Top |
81-105 |
Loss |
-108 |
64 h 47 m |
Show
|
*5 Star NCAA Hidden Gem Total* The smaller postseason tournaments like this one tend to have very high scoring games early on, but as they go farther along the games slow down a bit. Oakland is the type of team that loves to run and gun no matter what, but I don't think Utah State will play that game with them here. Utah State is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation, and they are great at melting down clock when they have a lead. They have a great homecourt advantage and I expect them to win this game, so I think they'll take the air out of the ball late. I projected this one at 148 or 149. Take the under.
|
03-25-12 |
Kansas v. North Carolina UNDER 143.5 |
|
80-67 |
Loss |
-108 |
15 h 38 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Kansas/UNC Total Domination* I wouldn't think that Kendall Marshall could go in this one, and even if he does it's hard to imagine him being terribly effective. Stilman White isn't a bad player, but the tempo is much slower when he is in the game. Kansas has the single best two-point defense in the nation, which is huge because North Carolina relies heavily on shooting it from inside. The Tar Heels really aren't that great from beyond the arc. Kansas has been struggling shooting the ball, but Bill Self's team plays very good defense. The under is 17-4 in Kansas' last 21 NCAA Tournament games. The under is 4-0 in the Jayhawks last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in UNC's last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Take the under.
|
03-25-12 |
Baylor v. Kentucky OVER 147.5 |
|
70-82 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 59 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Baylor/Kentucky Total* The Baylor Bears have picked up the pace quite a bit in their past couple tournament games. Pierre Jackson is very quick and he looks to push and get it to the athletic frontcourt players as soon as possible. Kentucky has put on two offensive clinic's in a row against Iowa State and then Indiana. Marquis Teague has gained tons of confidence of late and that makes a world of difference for the Wildcats on offense. Don't expect either team to slow this tempo down. The over is 4-1 in the Wildcats last 5. The over is 6-1 in Baylor's last 7. Take the over.
|
03-24-12 |
Sacramento Kings v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 208.5 |
|
108-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout* The Golden State Warriors simply don't have the horses to be pushing the pace right now. They no longer have Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry is out with an ankle injury. The Kings like to run and gun, but their offense isn't nearly as good on the road. Sacramento averages just 93.7 points per game on the road. This won't be a popular play with the public, but I don't mind fading the public in this spot. Look for both offenses to struggle more than expected here. This is a very high number. Take the under.
|
03-24-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 202.5 |
|
125-104 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 13 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* Both teams are on the final leg of a back-to-back-to-back scheduling spot. It's controversial what that means to the total, but I think in this case it will likely mean tired legs that don't play very much defense. The Bucks are pushing the pace in a big way since the trade deadline. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings is a terrific backcourt to push the tempo with. The over is 24-8 in the Bucks last 32 games. It is 15-5-1 in their 21 home games this year. Take the over here.
|
03-24-12 |
Ohio State v. Syracuse OVER 134.5 |
|
77-70 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 40 m |
Show
|
*3 Star OSU/Syracuse Total Takedown* Ohio State turned on the jets in the second half against Cincinnati after squandering a lead earlier in the game. Aaron Craft is the best on the ball defender in the nation, and you can bet he'll make life difficult for Jardine and Waiters. Syracuse has forced quite a few turnovers this year, and I think they'll get some run out opportunities here. The Buckeyes have been pushing the pace much more of late. The over is 9-1 in Ohio State's last 10 (the one loss was by a single point). Take the over in this one.
|
03-24-12 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards UNDER 191.5 |
|
95-92 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards aren't the same team since the trade deadline, but that has actually been a good thing. They got rid of Nick Young and JaVale McGee, and it seems like the team is playing much better defense. They aren't pushing the tempo as much, and the Hawks would definitely prefer a half court game. The under is an impressive 5-0 in the Wizards last 5. The under is 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 games when playing on 0 days rest. The under is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The combined 14-0 under angle should carry on. Take the under.
|
03-24-12 |
Florida v. Louisville UNDER 131.5 |
|
68-72 |
Loss |
-108 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
*3 Star FLA/LOUIS Total Takedown* Rick Pitino and Billy Donovan should be a tremendous chess match in this one. Pitino's Cardinals showed just how tremendous their defense is last game against the Spartans of Michigan State. Michigan State, the top seed in the West, scored just 44 points against Louisville. Louisville should actually use the full court pressure to slow down Florida's guards and keep them out of the lane in this one. The Gators have slowed the tempo down a lot in the tournament thus far. The under is 10-1 in Lousville's last 11. The under is 3-0 in Florida's last 3. Take the under.
|
03-24-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 189.5 |
|
85-101 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* This game tips off at noon PST. The Clippers have been extremely lethargic of late, and I think this is another spot where they won't have much gas at all. The team has had a very rough schedule of late, and the offense just isn't clicking at all. Memphis is having some chemistry issues as well since Zach Randolph came back into the lineup. An early tip time like this makes me lean to the under to start with. The under is 6-0 in the Clippers last 6 home games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the under.
|
03-23-12 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 195.5 |
|
96-103 |
Loss |
-108 |
20 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Portland Trail Blazers showed some fight last night by picking up a home win over the Memphis Grizzlies. Los Angeles picked up a massive win over Dallas on Wednesday night. The over is 8-1 in the Lakers last nine, but in this case I think that is just giving us a nice value. The Blazers appear to be playing a little slower tempo under Canales as their new coach. The Lakers are still one of the slowest paced teams in the league, and as long as shooting percentages aren't astronomical here I think the under is the way to go. Take the under.
|
03-23-12 |
Indiana v. Kentucky UNDER 145.5 |
|
90-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Indiana/Kentucky Total Domination* Indiana bested Kentucky 73-72 earlier this year. Kentucky went on to have a dominating season and become the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Coach Calipari and this Kentucky team certainly haven't forgotten that December loss at the hands of the Hoosiers. Kentucky's major strength is their defense. Opponents shoot just 37% from the floor and only 39% on two-point shots. Anthony Davis is the best shot blocker college basketball has seen in many years. The first game between these two finished at 145. Indiana made 6 out of 9 three-point shots in that one. Kentucky shot 56% from the floor in that game. At a neutral site and with much more on the line, I find it hard to believe the shooting percentages will be that high again. The under is 10-3-1 in Kentucky's last 14 neutral site games. The under is 6-1 in Indiana's last 7 neutral site games. Take the under here.
|
03-23-12 |
Xavier v. Baylor UNDER 142.5 |
|
70-75 |
Loss |
-113 |
18 h 36 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* This game will be played in the Georgia Dome. A massive dome like this is generally not conducive to shooters. Brady Heslip single-handedly killed my Colorado/Baylor under last week. I have a feeling Xavier's Mark Lyons will be in his face all night in this one. Both teams are very good on defense, and the pace of these games tends to slow down a bit as they get more and more important. I projected this line at 138 or 139 points. Look for Baylor's athletic frontcourt to keep Xavier out of the paint in this one. Take the under.
|
03-23-12 |
Phoenix Suns v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 196 |
|
113-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Phoenix Suns aren't the same team they used to be. It's not that the Suns are a bad team now, but they really just can't run the way they used to. Steve Nash and Grant Hill have both aged quite a bit, and the Suns rely more on a half court game. Indiana is a solid defensive team, especially at home. The Pacers allow just 91.2 points per game at home. The Suns average just 93.3 per game on the road. The under is 8-0 so far this year when a team is on the second game of a back-to-back-to-back scheduling spot. Indiana is in that spot today. Take the under.
|
03-23-12 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 202.5 |
|
112-92 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Tempo Total* The Milwaukee Bucks are going to be pushing the tempo like no other team now. Scott Skiles' team has been pushing it pretty well all year, but they really have the backcourt to push the tempo now that they added Monta Ellis. The over is 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 games. Their game last night went under, but that was because Boston contested their shots and hurt their shooting percentage. Charlotte won't play good defense here, and I think the Bobcats will run with the Bucks. Take the over in this one.
|
03-22-12 |
Florida v. Marquette OVER 146 |
|
68-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
82 h 41 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Tournament Top Total* Marquette is a team I have liked to play the 'over' with all season. The Golden Eagles are great in transition and they don't waste many possessions. Florida can shoot it extremely well from deep, and Billy Donovan's team isn't likely to try to slow the game down very much here. I projected this total at 150 points. Both backcourts will get their points here, and Crowder should have a big game against a thin Gators frontcourt. The over is 15-3 in the Gators last 18 non-conference games. The over is 7-1 in Marquette's last 8 games as the favorite. Take the over here.
|
03-22-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 197.5 |
|
100-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 43 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks may become the single fastest paced team in the NBA now. Scott Skiles already had his team pushing the tempo as much as possible, then they added Monta Ellis who can run and fill it up in a hurry. Boston is actually playing a little quicker than they have in the past, and I think this pace will be fast. Milwaukee is averaging 112 points per game in their last five games. The over is 23-7 in the Bucks last 30 games. I would play this over all the way up to 202 points. Take the over.
|
03-22-12 |
Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets UNDER 197 |
|
83-109 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 15 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Golden State Warriors got rid of Monta Ellis, and now Stephen Curry is out of the lineup with an injury. Mark Jackson's team is short-handed right now, and Jackson wants them to slow the tempo down and work hard on the defensive end. Houston has been a solid 'under' team at home this year. I expect the tempo here to be slower than most are projecting. Kevin Martin missing is big for the Rockets. Neither team has their top offensive players. Look for this one to finish under the posted total.
|
03-22-12 |
Louisville v. Michigan State OVER 125 |
|
57-44 |
Loss |
-108 |
20 h 37 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Louisville/Michigan State Total Takedown* This is a matchup of two of the best coaches in the game right now. I believe Tom Izzo is the best coach in the nation. Rick Pitino does a great job getting the most out of his team as well. Louisville will use the full court press here, and Michigan State does turn it over more than usual this year so the Cardinals could get some easy baskets. Tom Izzo is saying in the press this week that he wants the Spartans to run with the Cardinals. I think the pace here will be enough to push this one over a very low total. Take the over here.
|
03-21-12 |
Washington State v. Oregon State OVER 149 |
|
72-55 |
Loss |
-108 |
22 h 40 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total Domination* Washington State and Oregon State met three times during the regular season. Two of the three meetings easily went over this posted total. The only game that didn't was in the PAC 12 Tournament at Staples Center. Oregon State's guards are terrific at pushing the pace, especially on their home floor. Washington State will have to score points if they are going to hang around in this game. The over is 4-0 in Oregon State's last 4 home games. The over is 5-2 in Washington State's last 7 road games. Take the over.
|
03-21-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 197.5 |
|
91-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 46 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* Since Chauncey Billups went down the Los Angeles Clippers offense has taken a hit. The Clippers are averaging just 90.8 points per game in their last five contests. At the same time, the Clippers have picked up their defensive intensity. They are allowing just 89.8 points per game in their last five. The Clippers are in the middle game of a back-to-back-to-back scheduling spot. The middle game of this spot has seen 21 unders and just 7 overs so far this season. Look for a slower pace and an under here.
|
03-21-12 |
New York Knicks v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 192.5 |
|
82-79 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 21 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The New York Knicks aren't the same team they were under Mike D'Antoni. Coach Mike Woodson likes to get the half court game working rather than running the floor and pushing the tempo constantly. I think there is quite a bit of value on the under with the Knicks right now. The 76ers have been an under machine at home. The under is 23-8 in their last 31 home games. In addition, the under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings at Philly between these two teams. Look for a slower game than most expect. Take the under.
|
03-21-12 |
Robert Morris v. Fairfield UNDER 125.5 |
|
61-67 |
Loss |
-103 |
17 h 1 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* Throughout the smaller postseason tournaments the 'over' has been dominant for the most part, but Robert Morris and Fairfield have both stuck to their slower pace. Both teams rely on their strong defense to win them games. Fairfield has allowed 56 and 57 points in their two postseason games. Robert Morris has given up 60 and 51 points. The under is 5-0 in Robert Morris' last 5 non-conference games. The under is 5-1 in Fairfield's last 6 home games. Take the under in this one.
|
03-20-12 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 206 |
|
116-87 |
Loss |
-114 |
20 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks have sped up the tempo in a big way this year, and I think the acquisition of Monta Ellis will make this Bucks team one of the fastest in the NBA. A backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Ellis is certainly one that can push the tempo with the best of them. Ellis doesn't play much defense at all, and I think the Bucks will allow more points now. Portland's defense has been horrendous of late. They are giving up 102.4 per game in their last 5. Milwaukee is scoring 112.8 per game in their last five. The over is 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 road games. The over is 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 as a home favorite of 5 points or less. The over is also 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. Take the over here.
|
03-20-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Sacramento Kings OVER 201.5 |
|
110-119 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Bookie BEATDOWN* The Sacramento Kings have made a concerted effort to push the pace in a big way lately. The Kings have scored 112, 115, and 120 points in their last three games. They have also given up 107.8 points per game in their last five contests. These teams have met twice this year, with the final scores being 113-96 and 128-95. The Grizzlies have tons of offensive weapons with Gay, Randolph, Gasol, Conley, etc. I think both teams will top the 100 point mark in this one. Take the over here.
|
03-20-12 |
Oregon v. Washington OVER 154.5 |
|
86-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Knockout* Oregon has pushing the pace like no other in this postseason tournament. The score in their first two games has been 96-76 and 108-97. While I don't think this game will be that high, we know the Washington Huskies are a team that likes to push the tempo as well. The two regular season meetings finished below the posted total, but these smaller postseason tournaments have been very high scoring this year. Expect both teams to be running and gunning here. I projected this at 158. Take the over.
|
03-20-12 |
Phoenix Suns v. Miami Heat UNDER 199.5 |
|
95-99 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 46 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Phoenix Suns play at a much slower pace than they have in previous years. They actually play a little bit of defense as well. The Heat have really picked up the defense of late, especially on their home floor. It is the Heat's defense that makes them the elite team that they are right now. The under is 13-3 in the Heat's last 16 home games. The under is 13-5 in the Suns last 18 road games. Miami should control this game and slow down the Suns offense. I projected this one at 196. Take the under.
|
03-20-12 |
Rice v. Oakland OVER 159 |
|
70-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Oakland is one of my favorite teams to bet an 'over' with. The Golden Grizzlies push the tempo in a big way and they play almost no defense. The over is 21-6 in their last 27 non-conference games. The over is also 46-21-1 in their last 68 games overall. Rice isn't a team that slows down the tempo, and the Owls have plenty of guys who can hit shots from long range. This is a game where tons of threes should be falling for both teams. I projected this one at 163. Take the over in this game.
|
03-19-12 |
Illinois State v. Stanford OVER 134.5 |
|
88-92 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star ESPN 2 Late Night Total Domination* Illinois State excels from long range and so does Stanford. Expect both teams to bury lots of threes in this one. Both teams have been playing at a much quicker pace than normal over their last few games. The total has reached at least 140 in Stanford's last 4 games. The over is 20-6 in Illinois State's last 26 road games. The over is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 games overall. I projected this one at 138 or 139. Look for both teams to shoot well. A close game should lead to plenty of free throws as well. Take the over.
|
03-19-12 |
Texas Christian v. Oregon State OVER 159.5 |
|
81-101 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* TCU has been one of my favorite 'over' teams all season. The Horned Frogs used to be a team that slowed down the tempo, but this year they are running and gunning. TCU can bury three's, and they don't guard well at all. Oregon State has great guards that push the tempo in a big way. The over is 5-0 in TCU's last 5 games. The over is 10-2 in Oregon State's last 12 home games. This is a high number, but I think these teams will get to 165 or so here. Expect a quick pace. Take the over.
|
03-19-12 |
Minnesota v. Miami (Fla) UNDER 131 |
|
78-60 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Minnesota prefers to play at a slow pace, and so does Miami. Miami is without leading scorer Durand Scott, and that should slow them down even more. They beat Valpo 66-50 in a slow halfcourt battle last time out. Both of these teams play solid defense. I projected this line at 127 points. Miami allows just 64.6 points per game at home. Minnesota averages only 63.3 points per game on the road. Don't expect a pretty game of basketball here. I think the value is with the under on this one.
|
03-18-12 |
Lehigh Mountain v. Xavier OVER 140 |
|
58-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* Lehigh shocked the world by taking down the Duke Blue Devils on Friday night. C.J. McCollum has been a star all year, and I see no reason to believe that he'll slack off in this game. Tu Holloway is also terrific for Xavier, and I think we'll have some great guard play in this game. Both teams are more comfortable playing at a quick pace, which should mean there are plenty of shots taken in this game. The over is 13-6 in Xavier's last 19 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over in this one.
|
03-18-12 |
Ohio v. South Florida UNDER 116 |
|
62-56 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* USF has been a terrific 'under' team for me. The Bulls play defense as well as anyone in the nation, and they are poor offensively. Ohio shouldn't be able to force the tempo in this one against a Bulls squad that is insistent on slowing the game down. The under is 23-7 in the Bulls last 30 games. The under is 4-1 in Ohio's last 5 games. Look for this to turn into a defensive game like just about every game involving USF does. USF hasn't allowed more than 58 points in any of their last 12 games. Take the under.
|
03-18-12 |
Orlando Magic v. Miami Heat UNDER 189 |
|
81-91 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 18 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat have had some great battles with each other over the past couple years. Miami is at their best when they are playing great defense. They started playing much better defense last game against the Sixers, and I think they'll continue it in this one. Orlando isn't a team that gets out in transition very often. The under is 36-15-1 in the Magic's last 52 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in the Heat's last 4 home games. Take the under in this one.
|
03-18-12 |
Norfolk State v. Florida OVER 143 |
|
50-84 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* Norfolk State pulled off the unthinkable upset on Friday over Missouri. The Spartans like to push the pace and I don't see them stalling in this game. Florida is more than happy to run and use their terrific guards to get to the hoop or kick it out for an open three. The Gators offense is terrific, and I see them putting up a big number here. Norfolk State should actually have the advantage on the inside, and O'Quinn should have another big day for them. The over is 15-2 in Florida's last 17 non-conference games. Take the over.
|
03-18-12 |
Manhattan v. Fairfield UNDER 132 |
|
57-69 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* This game won't be getting any coverage Sunday, but I think that is exactly what has gotten us so much value here. Fairfield's best player Derek Needham will miss this game with an injury. The first two games between these teams finished at 104 and 114. I simply don't understand why this line would be set at 132 when one of Fairfield's best offensive players will now be missing for this game. The under is 13-3-1 in Manhattan's last 17 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Take the under.
|
03-18-12 |
Bucknell v. Nevada UNDER 132.5 |
|
67-75 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Bucknell Bison and the Nevada Wolfpack both love to slow the game down and use their strong defense to win games. I see no reason to expect either team to try to turn this into a transition oriented game. Bucknell held Arizona to just 54 points in their first postseason game. Nevada is a very good defensive team on their home floor. I projected this line at 127 points. Look for this one to stay under the posted total.
|
03-18-12 |
Northern Iowa v. Drexel UNDER 121.5 |
|
63-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* This game will tip off at 11 am eastern time. Games that start that early tend to be lower scoring in general. Both of these teams are built around defense and ball control, and I don't see either team looking to push the pace here. Drexel is focused and looking to send a message, and they do that with their defense. I projected this line at 116 points. Look for a half court game where both defenses are strong. Take the under.
|
03-17-12 |
Idaho v. Utah State UNDER 134 |
|
56-76 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* Idaho and Utah State will meet for the third time this season on Saturday. Both of these teams are strong on the defensive end. Neither team likes to get out in transition much at all. The first two meetings between these teams in the regular season finished at 111 points and 117 points. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I projected this line at 129 points. The value here is too much to pass up for me. I like the under in this matchup of familiar foes.
|
03-17-12 |
Colorado v. Baylor UNDER 133 |
|
63-80 |
Loss |
-108 |
18 h 25 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Colorado Buffaloes slowed down the UNLV Runnin' Rebels nicely on Thursday night. Colorado's half court defense is quite impressive. Andre Roberson is a great defensive player and I think he can slow down Perry Jones III and Quincy Acy on the inside. On the other end, Colorado is very inconsistent on offense. The Buffaloes have gone through several long scoreless droughts in their past few games. Baylor is long and athletic on defense. The under is 19-7 in Colorado's last 26 games. Take the under.
|
03-17-12 |
Georgia State v. Mercer UNDER 125.5 |
|
59-64 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* Both Georgia State and Mercer have won with defense this year. Neither team likes to push the pace and I expect a half court battle in this one. I projected this one at just 120 points. This should be a game with plenty of contested tough shots and a slow pace. The under is 45-20-1 in Georgia State's last 66 games. The under is 10-0-1 in Mercer's last 11 games at home. Both defenses should rule in this one. I expect a well-played close game all the way. Take the under.
|
03-17-12 |
Buffalo v. Oakland OVER 164 |
|
76-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* Oakland is a team that can run and gun with the best of them. The Golden Grizzlies play almost no defense though, and I expect Buffalo to score at will here. Buffalo has a strong post presence that Oakland simply cannot match. Both teams like to run, and Buffalo tends to really get out in transition in non-conference games. I projected this one at 168 points. The over is 7-1 in Buffalo's last 8 games. The over is 46-20-1 in Oakland's last 67 games overall. Take the over in this one.
|
03-16-12 |
Detroit v. Kansas OVER 142 |
|
50-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 51 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Bailout Total* Detroit is a very talented team out of the Horizon League. Butler has showed that the Horizon League is better than most realize the last couple years. Detroit loves to push the pace and try to get to the rim. Kansas is a team that would rather play at a quick pace. Tyshawn Taylor and Ray McCallum Jr. should both get their points in this one. I projected this line at 147 points. Look for the pace to be quick here, and both teams should get to the free throw line quite a bit. Take the over.
|
03-16-12 |
South Florida v. Temple UNDER 121.5 |
|
58-44 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 15 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* I have been extremely impressed with USF's defense over the last half of the year. Stan Heath's team is extremely motivated on the defensive end, and they are very tough to beat. USF hasn't allowed more than 57 points in their last 11 games. In fact, none of those 11 games finished over this posted total. The under is 22-7 in USF's last 29 games. I projected this line at 117 points. Temple is a very good defensive team as well, and I don't see either offense getting much going here. Take the under.
|
03-16-12 |
Long Island v. Michigan State OVER 154 |
Top |
67-89 |
Win
|
100 |
100 h 40 m |
Show
|
*5 Star NCAA BB Top Total* Long Island is a team that loves to run and gun. No matter who Long Island plays, they are going to push the pace. This team simply does not how to slow the tempo down. Tom Izzo's Spartans like to run as much as they can, but they don't get the opportunity too much in the Big Ten. They'll get their chance in a big way in this one. Long Island's defense is almost non-existent. North Carolina put up 102 points on Long Island in the NCAA Tournament last year. Michigan State likely won't score that many, but 90 or 95 isn't out of the question. Take the over in a big way here.
|
03-16-12 |
Purdue v. Saint Marys CA UNDER 140.5 |
|
72-69 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 27 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Purdue and St. Mary's are two teams that take care of the basketball very well. Don't expect to see a lot of easy buckets off turnovers in this one. Both coaches preach defense all the time. I expect to see a half court style of game here. Both teams do shoot the three-ball well, but a neutral floor like this usually hurts the shooting percentages quite a bit. I expect the pace here to be too slow for this one to hit unless the shooting percentages are extremely high. Take the under.
|
03-16-12 |
Lehigh Mountain v. Duke OVER 148 |
|
75-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 10 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* Lehigh is a team that loves to push the tempo. They have been able to score a lot of points against some very good teams this year. Lehigh put up 81 points against Michigan State and 77 points against Iowa State. Duke's defense is not that impressive this year. The Blue Devils like to run this year and they can definitely drain it from beyond the three-point line. Look for Lehigh to stay closer than most expect in this one. Both teams shoot free throws extremely well and I think that is worth a few points here. Take the over.
|
03-16-12 |
Virginia Cavaliers v. Florida OVER 121.5 |
|
45-71 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* It's usually not fun betting an 'over' with Virginia, but I think the value is with the over on this game. Florida is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. The Gators backcourt should be far too much for Virginia to handle defensively. At the same time, the Gators aren't very good defensively, especially in the low post. Mike Scott is a dominant player in the low post and I fully expect him to have a huge game here. The over is 11-1 in the Gators last 12 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over.
|
03-15-12 |
Colorado v. UNLV OVER 134 |
Top |
68-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
70 h 11 m |
Show
|
*5 Star NCAA BB Top Total* UNLV is a team that can really get out in transition and do some major damage. Chace Stanback is a terrific shooter, and Bellfield and Marshall start the fast break as well as any point guards in the nation. Colorado won the PAC 12 Tournament to get into this game. The Buffaloes appear to have a pretty good defense, but the PAC 12 is just miserable this year. UNLV plays many better opponents in the Mountain West. UNLV should be able to dictate the pace here, and make Colorado play from behind. I projected this one at 138 or 139 points. I like the over big in this one.
|
03-15-12 |
South Dakota St v. Baylor OVER 139.5 |
|
60-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
43 h 50 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* I see this as a game where both teams have major advantages. South Dakota State is a terrific three-point shooting team. The Jackrabbits have four players on their team who shoot at least 40%. Look for them to knock down quite a few three's in this one. Baylor has a terrific frontcourt, and they should absolutely dominate South Dakota State in the paint. Neither team will fight to slow down the tempo. The Jackrabbits should keep this one close with some three's, and Baylor should get multiple put backs. The over is 13-3 in South Dakota State's last 16 non-conference games. The over is 4-0 in Baylor's last 4 games. Take the over.
|
03-15-12 |
Virginia Commonwealth v. Wichita State OVER 134 |
|
62-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
67 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Knockout* VCU isn't the same team they were a year ago. The Rams are more reliant on forcing turnovers and speeding up the opposition, because they aren't very good in the half court sets. Wichita State has shown that they like to run when given the opportunity. Both teams have tons of quickness in the backcourt and I think that will lead to run out opportunities for both squads. I think this number is set too low given the nature of both teams and the pace at which this will be played. Take the over.
|
03-15-12 |
Kent State v. USC Upstate OVER 142.5 |
|
58-73 |
Loss |
-108 |
18 h 8 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* Kent State and USC Upstate both like to push the pace. If there is one thing we have seen from the smaller postseason tournaments it is that the tempo is much quicker than a regular season game. It seems neither team wants to play a lot of defense in these matchups. This should be another case of very little defense and tons of offense all the way through the game. I projected this line at 146 points. Look for a fast paced game and easy baskets for both teams. Take the over.
|
03-15-12 |
Brigham Young v. Marquette OVER 153.5 |
|
68-88 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* BYU is very fortunate to be still in the NCAA Tournament. If it weren't for Iona's historically bad performance in the second half the other night the Cougars would already be at home. BYU pushes the pace in a big way, and Marquette is one of the best transition teams in the nation. I don't expect either team to slow this game down. The tempo here should lead to quite a few shots being taken by both teams. I projected this one at 157 or 158 points. I like the over in this game.
|
03-14-12 |
Cal Santa Barbara v. Idaho UNDER 136 |
|
83-86 |
Loss |
-108 |
22 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Knockout* UCSB and Idaho are both teams that prefer to play the game in the half court. Idaho only gives up 64.4 points per game at home. UCSB's defense has only given up 57 points per game in their last five games. The total opened at 132. The number has risen to 136, which makes it a nice play by my projected line. I projected this total at 131 points. Look for a slow paced game where both defenses do very well. I like this one to stay several points under the posted total. Take the under.
|
03-14-12 |
Nevada v. Oral Roberts UNDER 137.5 |
|
68-59 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 37 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* Oral Roberts is a team that plays in the Summit League. The Summit League has tons of teams that simply fly up and down the floor. Oral Roberts was able to score bunches of points against teams with almost no defense. Oral Roberts is not a team that pushes the pace, and Nevada doesn't push the tempo either. The Nevada Wolfpack are a very talented team that works hard on the defensive end. The under is a perfect 8-0 in Oral Roberts last 8 non-conference games. The under is also 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Take the under.
|
03-14-12 |
South Florida v. California UNDER 115 |
|
65-54 |
Loss |
-108 |
20 h 23 m |
Show
|
*3 Star USF/Cal Total Domination* South Florida and Cal both snuck into the NCAA Tournament. USF has a clear blueprint for winning. The Bulls slow the game down to a crawl and they play terrific defense. USF hasn't allowed more than 57 points in a game in their last 10 games. Cal has been slowed down in a big way in the past couple years by teams that control the tempo the way USF does. Look for an ugly game where television viewers get frustrated at the lack of points. This one will probably stay under 110 points. The under is 22-6 in the last 28 games. The under is 9-1 in Cal's last 10 games at a neutral site. Take the under.
|
03-14-12 |
North Dakota State v. Wyoming UNDER 123 |
|
75-78 |
Loss |
-108 |
21 h 41 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* North Dakota State has been an interesting team this year. The Bison typically play to the pace of their opponent. Wyoming is a team that loves to slow the game down to a crawl. The Cowboys have a terrific defense, and I think North Dakota State will have a difficult time scoring in this one. Wyoming is giving up only 53.9 points per game at home this year. The under is 14-2 in North Dakota State's last 16 games. The under is 22-10 in Wyoming's last 32 home games. Take the under in this one.
|
03-14-12 |
Portland Trailblazers v. New York Knicks OVER 200.5 |
|
79-121 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Portland Blazers appear to have given up on this season. I expect there will be some pretty big changes coming soon in Portland. The Blazers have continually been blown out in the last few weeks by mediocre to bad teams. The Knicks haven't been playing any defense of late, and neither have the Blazers. I see tons of easy shots coming in this one. The Knicks have given up at least 102 points in 7 of their last 8 games. I projected this one at 204 points. Take the over here.
|
03-14-12 |
Quinnipiac v. Pennsylvania UNDER 131 |
|
63-74 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 11 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Ivy League Total* Pennsylvania is a terrific defensive team. The Quakers have slowed the game down more and more as the season has moved along. The under is an impressive 10-1 in their last 11 games overall. Quinnipiac plays in a league where almost everyone flies up and down the floor. The trouble for them is that they simply don't know how to play the type of game that Penn will make them play here. This number has kept going up, which has made this value even better. I really like the under.
|
03-14-12 |
Central Florida v. Drexel UNDER 123.5 |
|
56-81 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 56 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Drexel was one of the teams that quite a few people thought should get into the NCAA Tournament. In the end it was their poor non-conference schedule that cost them a bid. The Dragons are terrific defensively, and they are great at controlling the tempo. UCF prefers a slow pace as well, and I don't see them trying to speed this game up at all. The under is 13-3 in Drexel's last 16 Wednesday games. Look for a very slow paced half court battle here. This one should stay well under the posted total.
|
03-13-12 |
UT Arlington v. Washington OVER 154 |
|
72-82 |
Push |
0 |
29 h 23 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* Texas-Arlington and Washington both rank in the top 25 in pace in the entire nation. Washington is known for pushing the pace in a big way on their home floor. There is no way this Texas-Arlington team will try to slow the game down, because they honestly don't know how to slow a game down. I expect to see a very high volume of shots in this game. The over is 6-2 in Arlington's last 8 games. The over is 7-1 in Washington's last 8 non-conference games. Take the over in this one.
|
03-13-12 |
Washington State v. San Francisco UNDER 149 |
|
89-75 |
Loss |
-108 |
28 h 18 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total* San Francisco plays in the West Coast Conference, but that is a conference where good defense is hard to find. Washington State plays pretty good defense, and they definitely slow the pace down. San Francisco has seen a lot of overs played on their home floor lately, which has given us a nice value on the under here. Washington State doesn't have the guards to push the pace here, and I think they'll make this a half court battle as much as possible. I like the under here.
|
03-13-12 |
Iona v. Brigham Young OVER 161.5 |
|
72-78 |
Loss |
-108 |
28 h 3 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* From the moment I found out these two teams were playing each other I had my eye on the over. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the nation in terms of pace. Inside their conference both squads were the fastest paced team. Sometimes they had to battle to get the pace to their liking against conference foes, but that won't be the case in this one. The tempo should be very quick and both teams should get plenty of easy shots. I projected this line at 165. The over is 8-2 in Iona's last 10. The over is 7-2 in BYU's last 9 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over.
|
03-13-12 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 196 |
|
117-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Atlanta isn't a team that likes to play at a fast tempo. Denver does like to push the pace, but their offense has been out of sync lately. The Nuggets have been a solid 'under' play at home this year. The under is 14-8 in the Nuggets 22 home games this season. The under is 20-8 in Atlanta's last 28 road games. The Hawks have only given up 100 or more points in regulation twice all year. Denver won't be able to push the pace as much as they'd like here. Take the under in this game.
|
03-13-12 |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee v. Texas Christian OVER 138.5 |
|
73-83 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Knockout* TCU has been one of my favorite teams to play the 'over' with all year. TCU has changed their style of play this year and they really push the tempo. In addition, the Horned Frogs play very poor defense. Wisconsin-Milwaukee plays in a league where most of the teams slow the tempo down. I think they are better offensively than most people realize, and they'll get plenty of open shots against TCU's poor defense. Both teams should hit plenty of three's in this one. Take the over in this game.
|
03-13-12 |
Stony Brook v. Seton Hall UNDER 127 |
|
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
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*3 Star NCAA BB NIT Total* Stony Brook is a veteran team that knows how to slow the pace down. Seton Hall used to be a team that ran quite often, but they have played in quite a few low scoring battles this year. The Pirates defense is very good in the half court and I expect Stony Brook to struggle to score here. At the same time, Stony Brook knows the best way they can stay in this game is by slowing the game down in a big way. Look for a half court game. I projected this one at 124 or 125 points. Take the under here.
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03-13-12 |
Tennessee State v. Mercer UNDER 128.5 |
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60-68 |
Win
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100 |
19 h 38 m |
Show
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*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* Mercer will have the home court advantage in this one, and I think they'll play this game at the tempo that they like. Mercer is a team that plays at a slow tempo. Tennessee State hasn't been great offensively, and they struggle to score on the road at times. Neither team gets to the line all that often. Look for this game to be played in the half court setting almost all the way through. I projected this one at 124 or 125. I think the value is on the under in this one. Take the under.
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03-13-12 |
Mississippi Valley State v. Western Kentucky OVER 137.5 |
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58-59 |
Loss |
-108 |
25 h 19 m |
Show
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*3 Star NCAA Tournament Opener* Mississippi Valley State has pushed the tempo all year. They gave up 80 points or more in 8 of their first 10 games (against non-conference foes). MS Valley State plays in a very weak league, so their defensive stats don't look as bad as they would had they played better teams all year. Western Kentucky changed coaches in the middle of the season and they now like to press and run and gun. The Hilltoppers should be able to push the pace quite well against a team like MS Valley State. The over is 5-1 in Western Kentucky's last 6. Take the over.
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03-12-12 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 197.5 |
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127-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 36 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Phoenix Suns aren't the same team they were a few years ago. The Suns are older and they definitely don't run the way they used to. Phoenix is improved a bit defensively as well. I expect Minnesota's offensive output to go down quite a bit now that Ricky Rubio is out for the season. Losing a play maker like Rubio has to hurt the offense in a big way. The under is 5-0 in Phoenix's last 5 home games. The under is 21-7 in the Suns last 28 against the Western Conference. Take the under.
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03-12-12 |
Washington Wizards v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 205 |
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97-112 |
Win
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100 |
20 h 4 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* Washington has picked up the pace under new head coach Randy Wittman. The Wizards are averaging 104 points per game since the All-Star break. In addition, the Wizards are horrible defensively and I think the Spurs could definitely put up a very big number here. The Spurs have been pushing the pace quite a bit of late too, and I think this one will be a track meet. The over is 6-1 in Washington's last 7 games. The over is 8-3 in the Spurs last 11 games. I think this one gets to 210 or more. Take the over.
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03-12-12 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. New Jersey Nets OVER 198 |
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105-99 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Milwaukee Bucks and New Jersey Nets both like to do the same thing right now. Both teams like to run and gun. I don't think they'll be much defense played at all in this one. We're getting a nice value here since the last time these two played it was a low scoring game. Both teams shot below 40% from the floor in that one, and I don't think we'll see that again here. The over is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 road games. The over is 8-2 in the Nets last 10 home games. Look for this one to get over 200. Take the over.
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03-11-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 187 |
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94-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 13 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Total Value* Orlando will be without both Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson in this one. Indiana is coming off a heart breaking loss to the Heat last night on Dwyane Wade's last second game winner in overtime. This is the type of game where I expect the pace to be slower and the defenses to have control. The under is 36-17-2 in the Pacers last 55 on 0 days rest. The under is 36-14-1 in the Magic's last 51 Sunday games. I projected this one at 183 points. Take the under in this matchup.
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03-11-12 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. New York Knicks UNDER 194.5 |
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106-94 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Early Bird Total* Sunday afternoon early games in the NBA are often some of my favorite 'under' bets. Players are often a little weary and shooting percentages tend to be lower than normal. The Knicks have had some very high scoring games lately, which has made this total be inflated. Philadelphia almost never plays a fast paced game. Doug Collins coaches the defense very hard, and I expect the 76ers to slow down the Knicks some Sunday. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. The under is 5-0 in the 76ers last 5 road games. Take the under.
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03-10-12 |
Louisiana Tech v. New Mexico State OVER 148 |
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57-82 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
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*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Bailout* New Mexico State has been one of my favorite teams to play the 'over' with all year. The Aggies really push the tempo, and they get to the free throw line more than any team in the nation. The two regular season meetings between these teams finished at 155 and 156 points. The over is 5-0 in LA. Tech's last 5 games overall. The Bulldogs like to full court press to push the tempo as well. The over is 12-3 in New Mexico State's last 15 Saturday games. I projected this one at 152 points. Take the over.
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03-10-12 |
Ohio v. Akron OVER 135 |
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64-63 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
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*3 Star NCAA BB MAC Total Takedown* Ohio and Akron both prefer to play an uptempo game. The total has been lowered a bit here because of the neutral venue and the importance of the game, but I expect this one to finish close to 140 points. D.J. Cooper may be the best player in the MAC and he should have a great game. Akron has a nice frontcourt and they should be able to score quite a few points in the paint here. The over is 6-2 in Ohio's last 8 MAC games. The over is 5-1 in Akron's last 6 MAC games. Take the over.
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03-10-12 |
Portland Trailblazers v. Washington Wizards OVER 200.5 |
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110-99 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Blazers were absolutely embarrassed last night in Boston. Portland trailed 81-38 in the third quarter before Boston cleared the bench. The team had a long meeting after last night's game, and I expect a better effort tonight. Washington really pushes the pace right now, especially on their home floor. The over is 4-1 in the Wizards last 5 games. The over is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 games. Expect both teams to get plenty of open looks in transition here. Take the over.
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03-10-12 |
Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 129 |
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53-51 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
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*3 Star NCAA BB Pac 12 Total* Colorado and Arizona will play in the PAC 12 Championship Game tonight. The winner of this game will go to the NCAA Tournament, while the loser is expected to go home. Both teams have been playing at a slower pace throughout the PAC 12 Tournament. I expect to see a half court game where both defenses fare very well. Both regular season meetings finished under this posted total and the importance of this game should make the pace even slower here. The under is 8-2 in Colorado's last 10. The under is 5-0 in Arizona's last 5 neutral site games. Take the under in this one.
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03-10-12 |
Massachusetts v. St Bonaventure OVER 144.5 |
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80-84 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
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*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* I think both teams have a real offensive upside in this one. Andrew Nicholson should absolutely dominate everyone UMass has on the inside. At the same time, UMass has a big edge in the backcourt. UMass will press and push the tempo here, and that should help this one be a very high scoring game. I expect a close game where plenty of free throws are attempted. I projected this one at 147 or 148 points. Look for both teams to get easy shots. Take the over in this one.
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03-09-12 |
Cal Poly SLO v. Cal Santa Barbara UNDER 126 |
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52-64 |
Win
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100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
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*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total* Cal Poly is one of the best teams in the country at controlling the tempo. The Mustangs definitely want a very low scoring game here. UCSB actually prefers a slow pace as well, so I don't really expect a pace battle. The two regular season meetings finished at 128 and 115. The importance of this game should slow both teams down a bit. If either team loses, it's season is over. Look for a half court game that is controlled by the defenses. The under is 16-5 in UCSB's last 21 neutral site games. Take the under.
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03-09-12 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 197 |
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97-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 11 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Late Night Total* Dallas has been the busiest team in the NBA since the All-Star break. The Mavs are playing their sixth game in eight days today. Sacramento likes to push the tempo, but they have trouble scoring on teams that play good defense. I don't expect the Mavericks to want to run in this one, especially since they are tired. Look for Dallas to slow the game down and rely on defense here. The under is 5-2 in the Mavericks last 7 games. Look for a sloppy game here with both teams shooting a poor percentage from the floor. Take the under.
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