05-15-11 |
New York Mets v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both of these have terrible bullpens, and I don't either of the starting pitchers will make it very deep into this game. Aneury Rodriguez has been pulled after about 80 pitches in both of his first two starts. Chris Capuano was solid in his first start against Houston, but I think the Astros will get to him in this start. Capuano simply doesn't have overpowering stuff at this point. I think both pitchers are capable of giving up big innings here, and the bullpens will contribute to the total. Take the over.
|
05-15-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 |
|
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* The Tampa Bay Rays were held to four hits and no runs by Brad Bergesen on Saturday. With a healthy Evan Longoria in the middle of the lineup, the Rays don't have a bad offense. I think they'll bounce back against Jake Arrieta in this one. Andy Sonnanstine is pitching for the Rays, and he has never proven to be a very effective starter. The over is 4-0 in Sonnanstine's last 4 starts against Baltimore. Derryl Cousins is a nice 'over' umpire as well. The over is 9-3-2 in his last 14 games behind the dish. Expect a higher scoring affair here. Take the over.
|
05-15-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 6.5 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* It's Roy Halladay vs. Tim Hudson is this amazing pitching matchup. I will come right out and say I generally hate to play an 'under' on a total set at 6.5. In this case I believe it is a solid value. Roy Halladay has amazing numbers just about everywhere, and he is the best pitcher in the game, but his numbers against Atlanta are amazing. In 16 innings at Turner Field he hasn't allowed a run. In 35 and 2/3 against the Braves overall he has allowed a total of five earned runs. Tim Hudson is a better pitcher during the daytime, and he has been great at home. Shane Victorino and Jason Heyward are both expected to miss this game, which is big for this bet as well. Take the under.
|
05-14-11 |
Florida Marlins v. Washington Nationals UNDER 8 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 18 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Doug Eddings is one of the best 'under' umpires in baseball. Eddings has a very wide strike zone and he has been a solid umpire for several years. Anibal Sanchez has been pitching brilliantly of late, and he has dominated the Nationals in the past couple years. Livan Hernandez has been solid the past couple years because of his ability to keep the ball down in the zone. How about a couple big trends? The under is 27-12-2 in Sanchez's last 41 road starts. The under is 17-5-1 in Hernandez's last 23 home starts. Take the under here.
|
05-13-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 195.5 |
|
83-95 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 25 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* I find that the later in the series you get, the lower scoring the games become. The tempo of the game slows down as both teams realize just how important every possession is. The Memphis Grizzlies have done a very good job defending Kevin Durant in this series, especially in their own building. Memphis will want to keep the pace fairly slow. Oklahoma City is better defensively than most people realize with Perkins, Ibaka, and Collison down low. I think this one has a solid chance at staying well under the number. Take the under.
|
05-13-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* Jeremy Guthrie has typically been tremendous against Tampa Bay. In his start against the Rays last weekend he was terrible, but I don't think that will happen twice in a row. The under is 6-2 in Guthrie's last 8 starts against Tampa, including 4-0 in his last 4 at Tampa Bay. Jeremy Hellickson is a very good young pitcher, and he typically pitches much better at home. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The under is 37-13-1 in the Rays last 51 home games. I think this one stays low scoring. Take the under.
|
05-13-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 9.5 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-101 |
17 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees Total DOMINATION* Both offenses have been struggling of late, so we actually get a bit of a bargain on the over in this case. Clay Buchholz has been terrible against the Yankees in the past. In his career he has started six games against them and his ERA is 6.26. Bartolo Colon has an ERA of just over 4 against the Red Sox. Colon was shelled in his last start, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the start of a slump for him. Both of these teams are stacked offensively. The trend has been strongly toward the over in recent meetings. The over is 18-7-2 in their last 27 meetings. Take the over.
|
05-12-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 40 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Matt Cain and Daniel Hudson are both very good pitchers and neither of these offenses is particularly strong. Bill Miller is a great umpire to have behind the plate if you are looking for an under. The under is 57-26-6 in Miller's last 89 games behind home plate! The under is 10-2 in Hudson's last 12 starts as oddsmakers continue to underestimate him as a pitcher. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. The under is 8-2-1 in Arizona's last 11. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4. I really like the under in this one.
|
05-12-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-120 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* B.J. Upton has been hitting the ball well of late, but he will start serving a two-game suspension in this one. Grady Sizemore may well miss his second straight game with a minor knee injury. Justin Masterson has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this year. Masterson has been brilliant in day games in his career. In 40 games pitched during the day he has a 2.99 ERA. James Shields has an ERA of under one in his last three games, and he has also been terrific in day games in his career. The high humidity in Cleveland won't help the ball travel very much on Thursday afternoon. Take the under.
|
05-11-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Johnathan Sanchez has been struggling in a big way of late to find the strike zone, but I think he gets the perfect umpire here to help his cause. Phil Cuzzi has one of the biggest strike zones of any umpire, and he'll likely give Sanchez the corners. Galarraga is another pitcher who struggles with walks and he should benefit from having Cuzzi behind the plate. The under is 15-6-5 in Cuzzi's last 26 games behind the plate. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. Take the under.
|
05-11-11 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197.5 |
|
72-99 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Memphis Grizzlies appear to have found a way to slow down the Oklahoma City offense. Tony Allen is doing a great job denying the basketball from Kevin Durant, which forces Russell Westbrook to have to do much more offensively. On the other end, Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka give the Thunder a couple very good defensive big men. Nick Collison also does a very good job against Zach Randolph. With the series tied at 2, I think the pace of this game will be slowed down a bit as everyone understands there is a whole lot at stake. Take the under.
|
05-11-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 |
|
3-9 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox appear to be finally putting it together on offense. This team is simply too good to be struggling at the plate all year long. On the other hand, John Lackey has been bad this year, and he struggled mightily against Toronto last year as well. Litsch isn't an overpowering pitcher and Boston should be able to get to him. Lackey will likely give up some long balls against a Toronto team that has some power hitters. The over is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts against Toronto. Take the over.
|
05-11-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 |
|
13-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* John Hirschbeck is one of the best 'under' umpires in the business. Hirschbeck consistently has a very wide strike zone, and I think both pitchers will benefit nicely in this one. Stauffer has been solid all year and Wolf is a pitcher who relies on getting the corners. Both teams exploded for 8 and 6 runs last night, but neither of these offenses have been very good at all this year. San Diego has the worst offense in the league. I think on a get away day with some players resting this total is set too high. Take the under.
|
05-10-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 |
|
6-8 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres have an absolutely terrible offense. They rank last in all of baseball in runs per game at just 3.09. The team is also last in batting average at .216. The Milwaukee Brewers have struggled hitting lefties this year. Milwaukee averages just 2.4 runs per game against left-handed starters. Clayton Richard is a solid lefty, and Shawn Marcum is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. Both offenses have been struggling and I think these two pitchers will both pitch well tonight. Take the under.
|
05-09-11 |
Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers UNDER 8.5 |
|
7-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
19 h 43 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Trevor Cahill is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.Cahill has a great sinker and he keeps the ball down well. The Rangers are missing Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, and Cahill has pitched extremely well against Texas in the past. A couple of weeks ago Cahill blanked the Rangers over seven innings. C.J. Wilson is turning into a legitimate ace, and I don't like this Oakland offense much at all. Expect both starting pitchers to put forth a solid effort here. Take the under.
|
05-09-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Florida Marlins OVER 9 |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
104 |
18 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Javier Vazquez just hasn't had his "A Game" at all this year. Vazquez has an ERA of 6.39 for the year. The Phillies may be without Utley, but they still have Rollins, Victorino, Howard, Polanco, Ibanez, and plenty of pop in the lineup. Joe Blanton is pitching for the Phillies. Blanton has a 5.92 ERA this year overall, and he is nursing a minor elbow injury as well. The over is 21-7 in Blanton's last 28 starts. The over is also 7-2-2 in the Marlins last 11 games overall. I expect a high scoring affair. Take the over.
|
05-08-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
15 h 0 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I was very surprised to see this number come out at 7.5. Dan Haren is one of baseball's best pitchers, especially in the first half of the year. Fausto Carmona has been a little inconsistent, but he has pitched well against the Angels in the past. Paul Nauert is the umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. How about some impressive trends? The under is 9-1-1 in Haren's last 11 home starts. The under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two in LA. The under is 4-0 in Carmona's last 4 against the Angels. This is my play of the day. Take the under.
|
05-08-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Florida Marlins UNDER 8 |
|
0-8 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Livan Hernandez has quietly been a very solid pitcher the last couple years. He has been an 'under' bettors best friend. The under is 34-15-2 in his last 51 starts overall. The under is 15-5-1 in his last 21 road starts. Anibal Sanchez has been in great form of late as well. The under is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 5-1 in Hernandez's last 6 against the Marlins. The under is 5-1 in Sanchez's last 6 against the Nationals. I like the under a lot in this one!
|
05-07-11 |
New York Yankees v. Texas Rangers OVER 10 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 21 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* The under is 9-1-3 in the Yankees last 13 games, and I actually think that is why we are getting this line at 10 instead of 11. Derek Holland has a 8.10 ERA in his four games against the Yankees. Bartolo Colon has pitched well so far this year, but the Texas heat and this ballpark should be tough on him. This park is notorius for a wind tunnel that pushes the ball out toward center with a south wind, and that is what is expected on Saturday night. Both pitchers are very capable of giving up the long ball, and I think the over is the way to go here.
|
05-07-11 |
Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics have one of the weakest offenses in all of baseball. Oakland does have a very good pitching staff though. Brandon McCarthy is largely flying under the radar, but he has been very good this year. Luke Hochevar hasn't been good so far this year, but history tells us he is generally solid at home. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one, and he is a huge under umpire. Miller has a large strike zone and both of these pitchers should use that to their advantage. I expect a low scoring affair here. Take the under.
|
05-07-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 |
|
8-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeremy Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in the game right now in my opinion. He has good command and high quality stuff. The Rays are a great 'under' team, partially because they play terrific defense. Tampa Bay has committed the least errors in baseball. Jeremy Guthrie is on the mound for Baltimore, and he has been solid all year. Guthrie has a great track record against the Rays. The under is 6-1 in his last 7 starts against the Rays. The under is 5-2 in his last 7 starts. The under is 20-7-1 the last 28 meetings between these two. Take the under.
|
05-07-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Boston Red Sox continue to struggle, but I do believe their bats will wake up very soon. Boston is hitting left-handers better than righties so far this year, and I think Brian Duensing is the type of guy that Boston can hit. Clay Buchholz doesn't pitch well during the day (4.68 ERA in his career) and he hasn't fared well against the Twins (6.57 ERA). The over is 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 games at home. I think the Red Sox are due for a breakout game, and the Twins offense is playing with some confidence in the last three contests. Paul Schrieber is behind the dish, and he has a very small strike zone. Take the over.
|
05-06-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 |
|
6-2 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* James Shields has been pitching as well as anyone in baseball over the last few games. Britton is a tremendous young lefty for the Orioles. Both teams have proven to be nice 'under' teams thus far this year. The under is 38-15-1 in the Rays last 54. The under is 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts against the Orioles. The under is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings between these two. Mark Carlson is an under umpire behind the dish as well. Take the under here.
|
05-05-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Brandon Beachy is a very good young pitcher for the Braves, and he has pitched well in three straight games. The Brewers offense has been scuffling a bit of late. Marcum is pitching for the Brewers, and I think he is one of the most underrates pitchers in baseball today. Marcum has allowed 0 earned runs in three of his last four starts. Marcum allowed just one run earlier this year against the Braves. I think this one has the makings of a 3-2 type game. Take the under.
|
05-05-11 |
New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9 |
|
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* A.J. Burnett has an ERA of over 9 in his starts at Comerica. The Tigers offense got a much needed boost when Victor Martinez returned to the lineup on Wednesday night. The Yankees were shutout by Scherzer on Wednesday, but they should have much better luck against Rick Porcello. The Yankees have hit Porcello hard in the past. The over is 6-2-1 in Burnett's last 9 starts. The over is 6-1 in Porcello's last 7 home starts. The over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings. Tschida is behind the dish here, and he is a solid over umpire. I like the over in this Thursday afternoon game.
|
05-05-11 |
Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8.5 |
|
4-10 |
Loss |
-111 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Early Bird Special* Homer Bailey will make his first start of the season on Thursday afternoon. In his three rehab starts he was tremendous. Bailey had an ERA of 0.54 in his three starts in AAA. Brett Myers has historically pithched well on the road and he has pitched well against the Reds as well. In his last two starts against the Reds he has allowed a total of two runs. Tom Hallion is behind the dish here and I consider him a bit of an under umpire. The cool temperatures in Cincinnati should keep the ball from flying out of GABP too often. I like the under.
|
05-04-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 186.5 |
|
93-81 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout* The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers have a history of playing high scoring games when they get together. The last seven times these teams have played the total has gone over this posted total of 186.5 points. A 7-0 winning angle is nothing to sneeze at, and if you look at stats from Game One, it looks like a very solid play. The first game saw 190 points scored. There were only 31 free throws in that game, and the Lakers wer just 5 of 19 from three-point range. I like the over in this game.
|
05-04-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Late Night Totals Winner* Josh Tomlin has been very good so far this year, and the Oakland offense is not very impressive. Trevor Cahill has been absolutely dominant at home over the last couple years. The under is 16-5-1 in his last 22 home starts. While the Indians do have the best record in baseball, I don't think this Cleveland offense is all that terrific either. Ron Kulpa is behind the dish here and he is a solid under umpire. I think both pitchers will pitch well here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2-1 type of game. Take the under.
|
05-04-11 |
Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
104 |
20 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* The Colorado Rockies are a very good offensive team and Carlos Gonzalez is getting it going now. The Diamondbacks are solid offensively as well. Chase Field is expected to be open tonight and the temperature will be around 94 degrees. The humidity level is expected to be extremely low, which should mean the ball will be jumping off the bats tonight. Enright is pitching for the DBacks and the over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 home starts. I expect a high scoring affair. Take the over.
|
05-04-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 27 m |
Show
|
*5 Star Top Play Total* Kyle Davies is one of my favorite pitchers to fade or play an 'over' with, and Jake Arrieta hasn't been good on the road either. Arrieta has some hip pain that could give him some trouble during this game. The weather conditions should help a lot in this one. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at about 20 mph during this game. Davies has given up five runs in three of his six starts, and he gave up eight earned runs in his last outing. The Orioles bats are slowly coming to life of late. The over is 4-1 in Arrieta's last 5 starts. The over is 4-1 in Davies' last 5 home starts. The over is 31-13 in the last 44 meetings in Kansas City between these two. I'm making this my first five star top play of the MLB season. Take the over in a big way.
|
05-04-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 179.5 |
|
73-86 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Bookie SMASHER* The Chicago Bulls pride themselves on playing great defense. They didn't even come close to playing great defense in Game One against the Hawks. I expect Coach Thibodeau to stress defense like crazy in this one, and I think the Bulls will come out with a lot of passion here. Atlanta likes to slow the pace of the game down, and the Hawks generally aren't very good at all offensively. The Hawks shot 51% in Game One, but I wouldn't be surprised if they shoot 40% or lower in Game Two. I think the defenses will control this one. I like the under.
|
05-04-11 |
New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 9 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* I don't normally like to bet the 'under' with the Yankees, but I think this is a good spot. Freddy Garcia has been surprisingly good this year, and the Tigers offense isn't that great. Max Scherzer is terrific at Comerica in his career. Scherzer has an ERA of 2.7 in Detroit. Garcia also has a solid 3.7 ERA in his starts at Detroit. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams at Detroit. I think the line gives us a solid value on the under.
|
05-04-11 |
Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Travis Wood has an ERA of 6.00 at home. Rodriguez will be making the first start of his career for Houston in this game. Both teams have been hitting the ball very well of late. The wind is expected to be pushing out at about 10 to 15 mph in this game. The over is 3-0-1 in the Reds last 4 home games. The over is 9-4 in the Astros last 13 road games. The pitching matchup points to an over and I think this number is a solid value on the over. Expect both starting pitchers to get knocked out fairly early in this one. Take the over.
|
05-03-11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I'm no fan of taking an 'over' at PetCo Park in San Diego, but this number is definitely set too low based on the trends and data. Mat Latos was terrific last year, but he has been bad this year. Latos has an ERA of 4.98 this year, and he has allowed at least three runs in every outing this year. Jeff Karstens is pitching for the Pirates, and the over is 5-1 in his last 6 starts. Karstens doesn't have overpowering stuff, and I think the Padres will be able to score some runs off him. With a number set this low, a 3-3 game will result in a win. I like the value on the over.
|
05-03-11 |
Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Terrific Total* I've written about it before, and I've not changed my mind about Chase Field when the roof is open. Chase Field with the roof open is a hitters paradise, especially when the weather is hot and dry like it is expected to be today. A temperature of around 90 with almost no humidity should mean the ball will be coming off the bat extremely quickly tonight. Joe Saunders has struggled in the past with the roof open, and De La Rosa gives up too many fly balls to be good in these conditions. Take the over in this one.
|
05-03-11 |
Florida Marlins v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8 |
|
5-7 |
Loss |
-102 |
18 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATIION* The Florida Marlins have Anibal Sanchez on the hill in this one. Sanchez has been brilliant of late, and historically he has been very good on the road. The under is 27-11-2 in Sanchez's last 40 starts on the road. Kyle McClellan has been solid this year for the Cardinals, and I think he'll fare well in this one. Jerry Layne is the home plate umpire, and the under is 17-8-1 in his last 26 games behind the plate. I think this total is set a little too high. I like the value on the under in this one.
|
05-03-11 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 182.5 |
|
91-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 10 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Celtics/Heat Bookie BEATDOWN* I unsuccessfully played the under in Game One of this series. The two teams combined to make 21 three-pointers and shoot 50 free throws in that game. I highly doubt they'll make 21 three's again. Boston knows if they wish to win this series they must play better defense than they did in the first game. Neither team really wants to push the pace here, so I expect a slow grind it out type of game. During the season, the under was 3-1. Playoff action generally lowers the scoring even more. I think this one stays below 180. Take the under.
|
05-03-11 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 7 |
|
3-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 7 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* John Hirschbeck is the umpire in this game, and he is one of the best 'under' umpires in the business. Hirschbeck has a wide strike zone, and that should be perfect for both Dan Haren and Jon Lester. Dan Haren has allowed a total of six earned runs in his seven starts this year. Jon Lester allowed five earned runs in his first start of the year, but he has allowed just six earned runs in his last five starts overall. I think both starting pitchers will pitch deep into the game here. Take the under.
|
05-02-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 179 |
|
103-95 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* Both of these teams are at their best when they are controlling the tempo and playing solid defense. Two of the three meetings between these teams stayed well under this posted total. The three referrees for this game had a combined record of 115-93 to the 'under' during the year. The under is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 games. The under is 8-3 in the Bulls last 11 games. The playoffs overall have been very low scoring this year, and I think this game is likely to stay in the 80's. Take the under.
|
05-01-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
7-0 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TAKEDOWN* The San Diego Padres may have the worst offense in all of baseball. They managed to score five runs last night, but I don't think they'll be able to repeat that against a solid sinker-ball pitcher in Jon Garland. On the other side, Dustin Mosely has been terrific for the Padres. The Dodgers are short-handed without Furcal and Blake right now. The under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings between these two. I expect both starters to pitch well in this one. Take under 7.5 here.
|
05-01-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-7 |
Loss |
-120 |
15 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one and he is probably the single biggest 'under' umpire in all of baseball. Eddings has a big strike zone, and historically he has been an under bettors dream. The under is 12-4-2 in Eddings last 18 games. The under is also 38-16-5 in his last 59 Sunday games. Gio Gonzalez is a very good lefty who can work the corners, and I think the Rangers will have a difficult time against him. Matt Harrison has been much improved this year, and this Oakland offense is very bad. Take the under.
|
05-01-11 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 182 |
|
90-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Celtics/Heat Total DOMINATION* This has all the makings of a very hard fought series. These teams don't like each other one bit, and I think it will be evident. Three of the four regular season meetings stayed under this posted total, and I tend to think the playoff games will be even lower. In general, this postseason has shown that the game slows down quite a bit in a playoff series. The Celtics defense will pack in the paint and force LeBron and Wade to hit outside shots. I don't think either team will force the pace. I like the under in this one.
|
05-01-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Over Play of the Day* Chris Narveson hasn't looked good in his last couple outings, and the Houston Astros are scoring about 5 runs per game on lefties this year. Bud Norris is solid at home, but this Brewers lineup is very good now with Weeks, Braun, Fielder, McGhee, and Hart back and healthy. The wind is projected to be blowing out at about 15 mph. The home plate umpire is Adrian Johnson who tends to have a small strike zone. This one sets up nicely for an 'over' play. Take over 8.5 in this matchup.
|
04-30-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
18 h 25 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Tasty Total* Chase Field is a hitter's paradise when the roof is open, and the roof should be open for this one. Last night I lost on the 'over' play, but there were still four home runs. In two games in this series there have been eight home runs. I expect several more in this game. Matt Garza hasn't pitched in Arizona before, and Ian Kennedy has a 5.24 ERA in April in his career. The line has been adjusted slightly lower than yesterday's total, which is plenty for me to jump on the over again here. The over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two in Arizona. Take the over.
|
04-30-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
11-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, and Colby Lewis is a much better pitcher on the road. The under is 21-6 in Lewis' last 27 road starts. Brett Anderson is one of my favorite pitchers in the American League. He has tremendous stuff and he is absolutely dominant at home. Anderson has a tremendous ERA of 0.64 in two starts at home so far this year. Paul Nauert is behind the dish here and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 5-1 in Lewis' last 6 road starts against Oakland. I expect a well pitched game on both sides. Take the under.
|
04-29-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-119 |
20 h 35 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a completely different park when the roof is open, and it is expected to be open tonight. The ball carries in a huge way, especially when it is hot with low humidity. Today's weather report shows a lot of heat and almost no humidity. Carlos Zambrano certainly allows plenty of home runs, and I think Arizona will get to him tonight. The Cubs should have no problem scoring quite a few on Armando Galarraga, who is a fly ball pitcher in what will be a hitter's paradise. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Arizona. Take the over.
|
04-29-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves OVER 7 |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 59 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals Takedown* It would be easy to look at the pitching matchup in this one and think the 'under' should be an automatic play. A longer look at the statistics tells me that the 'over' is the better way to go. Chris Carpenter and Tim Hudson are both very good pitchers, but their opponent in this game have hit them very well in the past. The over is 7-0 in Carpenter's last 7 starts against the Braves. The over is 5-1-2 in Hudson's last 8 starts against the Cardinals. Both teams have seen their offense come to life over the last few days. I think the over is a solid play here.
|
04-28-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 183 |
|
103-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Mavericks and Blazers have been playing some hard fought games over the last week. Dallas is up 3-2, and I think Portland will come out playing with desparation in this one. Nate McMillan's team can lock you down defensively, and I think they'll do that tonight. Portland's leading scorer during the year, LaMarcus Aldridge, is slumping at the wrong time for the Blazers offense. The pace has slowed down as the series moves farther along, and I think that will continue in tonight's game. This should be halfcourt battle between two of the better defensive teams in the league. Take the under.
|
04-28-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 |
|
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Seattle Mariners have scored 17 runs in the last two days. I have played against Seattle in both of those games, and they have definitely hurt me. I still am going to stick with the fact that this Seattle offense is absolutely terrible. Ichiro is very good, but after that no one on this team is scary. Miguel Olivo is hitting cleanup for them right now. Pineda is a great young pitcher for the Mariners, and the Tigers lineup is struggling quite a bit without Victor Martinez. I think the best way to play this one is the under. This is an instance where I believe recent trends (the Mariners hitting very well) give us a very generous line on the under. Take the under here.
|
04-27-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Blue Jays have been smashing the baseball in a big way in this series so far, and I expect them to keep it going on Wednesday. At the same time, Texas should be able to put up several runs with JoJo Reyes on the hill for the Blue Jays. Reyes is a not dominant pitcher, and I don't think he'll fare well in a hitter's park like Texas. Derek Holland is on the mound for Texas, and his career ERA at home is 5.68. Holland gives up too many fly balls, and I think the Blue Jays will take him deep a couple times. The over is 6-2 in Holland's last 8 home starts. The over is 4-1 in Toronto's last five games. Take the over.
|
04-27-11 |
New York Mets v. Washington Nationals OVER 8 |
|
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Mets offense has been much better since Jason Bay came back into the lineup. The Washington Nationals are a decent hitting team now with Jayson Werth in the middle of the lineup. R.A. Dickey and Tom Gorzelanny are two pitchers that I fade fairly often. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 15 mph during the game tonight. The over is 4-1 in the Mets last 5. The over is 5-2 in the Nationals last 7. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. I think the 'over' is a good value here.
|
04-26-11 |
Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-8 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's have a very good pitching staff, but they don't have a good lineup at all this year. The Angels lineup has been scuffling badly of late, and I think that is likely to continue against Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy was a top prospect a few years ago, and he is finally realizing his potential after years of arm problems. Chatwood has a solid start to his career as well. Chatwood sometimes has trouble with walks, but Carlson is the umpire behind the dish here and he has a large strike zone. Two bad offenses and a nice 'under' umpire equals a play on the under for me.
|
04-26-11 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-107 |
19 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Mike Leake has struggled in his short major league career on the road, and I think the Brewers are the type of team that can make him pay for his mistakes. The Brewers are hungry to payback the Reds for Cincinnati's 4-0 record against them already this year. At the same time, the Reds have a solid lineup and Estrada is not a proven pitcher at this point. Tim Tschida is behind the dish and he has typically been a decent 'over' umpire. I think the total is set too low here. Take the over!
|
04-26-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic OVER 178 |
|
76-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The last three games between these two have all gone under the posted total, but the shooting percentages have been atrocious. For example, last game the total finished at 173. The Magic shot 2 for 23 on three-pointers in that game. If Orlando had made 4 out of 23 three-pointers, the game would have gone over the posted total. Orlando has several guys (Redick, Anderson, Richardson) capable of getting hot from beyond the arc. I think the Hawks are playing with a lot of confidence right now as well. The referee crew here has some pretty good 'over' stats as well. Take the over at this low level.
|
04-25-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 205.5 |
|
101-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Thunder are up 3-0 in this series, but I do expect the Nuggets to fight hard in Game Four. Arron Afflalo is back in the Denver lineup, and he is the Nuggets best defender. In Game Three, the total finished at 191 despite a ridiculous 88 free throw attempts. These two teams are both much better on the defensive end than most people give them credit for. Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka are strong on the frontline for Oklahoma City, and the Nuggets play pretty good team defense. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. I like the under.
|
04-25-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* It might seem strange to play an 'over' with Cliff Lee on the mound, but I feel this is a strong play. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open, and the roof is expected to be open tonight. Hot weather with low humidity makes the ball fly much farther, and multiple home runs are likely tonight. Ian Kennedy is a solid pitcher, but he has struggled mightily when the roof is open in Arizona. In his last outing with the roof open in Arizona he allowed nine runs in three innings against St. Louis. Both of these offenses are good, and I think this is a great value on the over.
|
04-25-11 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189 |
|
86-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs are down 2-1 to the Memphis Grizzlies and it hasn't just been a fluke. These Grizzlies are very athletic and their defense has been impressive in this series. The single biggest key on defense has been Mike Conley's ability to keep Tony Parker out of the paint. The Spurs are heavily reliant on Parker getting to the paint, and it just isn't happening. Memphis has seen that they are at their best against the Spurs when they control the tempo and play a halfcourt game. I expect the Grizzlies to keep this game in the halfcourt. The under is 5-1 in the Grizzlies last 6 home games. Take the under.
|
04-25-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Texas Rangers are without Josh Hamilton, but they can definitely still hit the baseball. Kyle Drabek has solid numbers this year, but Texas is no pitchers ballpark, and I think he'll struggle there. The weather conditions are good for an 'over' tonight, with a wind tunnel effect pushing the ball out. The over is 46-22-3 in Toronto's last 71 opening games of a series. The over is 5-2-2 in Colby Lewis' last 9 home starts. I expect both teams to put up several runs in this one. I like the value on the over.
|
04-25-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 10 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total KNOCKOUT* The New York Yankees come home to host an ice cold White Sox team. Humber is the starter for Chicago, and though his numbers look decent this year, I'm not convinced it will stay that way. Humber has three starts this year, two against the Rays and one against the Angels. Obviously the Rays and the Angels don't have the lineup that the Yankees have. I think New York will hit him hard in this one. Burnett is on the hill for New York, and in his last two games against the White Sox, Chicago has teed off on him. The over is 6-1 in Burnett's last 7 home games. Take the over here.
|
04-24-11 |
New York Yankees v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Freddy Garcia has pitched well so far this year, but I still don't think he can be trusted too much. Jake Arrieta has the potential to be very good in the future, but right now he is definitely hittable. Angel Campos is the home plate umpire in this one, and he is one of the biggest 'over' umpires in the league. The over is 8-3-1 in his last 12 games behind the plate. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at about 10 miles per hour in this one. The over is 7-3 in the Orioles last 10. The over is 20-9-1 in the Yankees last 30. Take the over in this one.
|
04-24-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Knockout* I think John Danks is an underrated pitcher. Danks is one of those rare pitchers who actually has a better ERA (3.64) on the road in his career. On the other side, Max Scherzer has been tremendous in Detroit. At home, Scherzer has an ERA of just 2.92 as a Tiger. The under is 9-3 in Scherzer's last 12 home starts. The under is 7-3 in Danks' last 10 starts against Detroit. Detroit's lineup isn't nearly as good without Victor Martinez in the middle of the lineup. I think both pitchers will fare well in this one. Take the under.
|
04-23-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. San Diego Padres OVER 7 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-102 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Top Total* Anytime I see a game that Joe Blanton is pitching in lined at seven runs for the over/under, I'm going to take a long look at the over. I know the Padres are terrible offensively, but Blanton is a much different pitcher than Oswalt or Hamels. The Phillies are very good offensively, and I expect them to get to Tim Stauffer some as well. We've got the best 'over' umpire in the business behind the plate here. The over is 11-5-1 in Jim Reynolds' last 17 behind the dish, and he has a nice track record of overs in past years. The over is 21-6 in Blanton's last 27 starts. Take the over.
|
04-23-11 |
Colorado Rockies v. Florida Marlins OVER 8.5 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
17 h 8 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jason Hammel has an ERA of above 6 in Florida, and Javier Vazquez has an ERA above 8 this year. The Rockies should be fired up to get back on track offensively after getting one hit by Sanchez on Friday. At the same time, Hammel doesn't have the kind of stuff to shut down the Marlins on the road. This is the type of game where I think both bullpens will be used for quite a while. I expect this one to be a high scoring affair. Take the over in this game.
|
04-23-11 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 187 |
|
82-84 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Dallas Mavericks played a solid game in Game Three, but the Portland fans carried the Blazers to a victory. Expect another great atmosphere in Game Four on Saturday. In Game Two and Game Three the total finished at 190 and 189, but both teams have been shooting a higher percentage from the floor than they did for the year. I expect both teams to show up with a stronger defensive effort. Also, last game there were 53 free throws, and I think there will probably be less today. Portland is a good defensive team, and Andre Miller is good at keeping the tempo slow. The Blazers know they must win this game to have a real shot in the series, and I expect their best defensive effort of the series. Take the under.
|
04-22-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 |
|
4-3 |
Push |
0 |
21 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Jon Lester vs. Dan Haren is a terrific pitching matchup. I think both pitchers will pitch extremely well on Friday night. Lester has shut down the Angels in the past. Vernon Wells is just 5 for 28 against Lester, and Bobby Abreu is just 4 for 17. Dan Haren has consistently been one of the best pitchers in the league before the All-Star break. Haren rarely gets run support from the Angels, but he generally eats up innings and shuts down the opposition. How about some impressive 100% winning angles here? The under is 5-0 in Lester's last 5 starts against the Angels. The under is 7-0 in Haren's last 7 games with a total set between 7 and 8.5. Overall, the under is 13-2-2 in Haren's last 17 outings. I like the under in this one.
|
04-22-11 |
Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 180 |
|
84-88 |
Loss |
-101 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
*3 Star TGIF NBA Total Takedown* The Magic and Hawks finished at 170 points in Game Two, which dropped the total by 3.5 points on this line. At 180, I like the value on the over. Dwight Howard is going to get fouled a lot, and take a lot of free throws in this one. The Magic won Game Two despite shooting 5 for 23 from beyond the arc. Orlando is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league, and I think they'll knock down more threes tonight. The Hawks should be playing inpsired basketball in front of their home crowd in this one. Though the total only reached 170 last time, the teams shot 34% and 39% from the floor. An average shooting night should put this game over the posted total quite easily. These are two teams I usually play the 'under' on, but at just 180 I think the value goes to the over. Take the over in this one!
|
04-22-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Mets OVER 8.5 |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-104 |
18 h 13 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Mike Pelfrey has gotten off to a very rocky start this year. I don't think it will help him to pitch against the Diamondbacks. Pelfrey has an ERA of 7.09 in his career against Arizona. Last year in Pelfrey's two starts against Arizona, the Mets lost 9-6 and 13-2. Joe Saunders is the type of pitcher who pitches to contact, and I think this Mets lineup can get to him. With Wright, Beltran, and now Bay in the middle of the lineup, the Mets should improve offensively. Both teams have a bad bullpen, so if it gets to the pen early that is a great sign for the over. I like the over in this one.
|
04-21-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
111 |
17 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Minnesota Twins offense has been terrible this year. Minnesota has yet to put up more than 5 runs in a single game all year. It looks as if they'll be without Morneau and Young again on Thursday and Mauer is still on the DL. Jeremy Guthrie is a solid pitcher, especially at home. Scott Baker has been great against the Orioles in his career. Baker is 5-0 with an ERA under 3 against Baltimore. The under is 10-3 in the Twins last 13 games. The under is 7-3 in Guthrie's last 10 home starts. I expect a good performance from both pitchers here. Take the under.
|
04-21-11 |
Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers OVER 189 |
|
88-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Bulls have had a rough time in the first couple games against the Pacers, but they did end up winning both games. Now the Pacers go home and they should have a great home crowd advantage here. Indiana is at their best when they are pushing the tempo, and I think they will do that even more at home. Derrick Rose is a matchup nightmare for the Pacers, as he has proven all year. Rose has 55 free throw attempts in the last three games against Indiana. I expect Rose to keep getting to the basket and getting to the line. Last game the total stayed under, and finished at 186. The two teams both shot about 40% in that game, and I would expect those numbers to be higher tonight. I think the value is on the over in this one.
|
04-20-11 |
Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 |
|
1-6 |
Push |
0 |
21 h 19 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* It's no secret that Dodger Stadium isn't exactly a hitter's park, especially at night. Derek Lowe is a solid sinker ball pitcher, and he should keep the ball in the park against an ordinary Dodgers lineup. Jon Garland was poor in his first start this year, but I think he should have a pretty good year in a pitcher's ballpark like Dodger Stadium. John Hirschbeck is the umpire behind the dish in this one, and he is one of the best 'under' umpires in the game today. The under 18-7-1 in Lowe's last 26 starts. Take the under here.
|
04-20-11 |
Denver Nuggets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 207 |
|
89-106 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 38 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Bookie SMASHER* The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder both have plenty of offensive firepower, but a big reason both teams have improved at the end of the season has been their defense. Kendrick Perkins has made the Thunder defense much better, and the Nuggets have improved defensively since Carmelo was traded. In Game One the total finished at 210, but that was with both teams shooting 50% and a total of 61 free throws. I expect fewer trips to the line and a little lower shooting numbers here. Go against the public and take the under.
|
04-20-11 |
Houston Astros v. New York Mets OVER 7.5 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 56 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* R.A. Dickey hasn't been pitching very well so far this year. Knuckleballers tend to run in streaks, and I think he is having trouble locating his pitches right now. On the other side, Bud Norris has been terrible on the road over his career. Norris has an ERA of 5.42 on the road in his career. Norris also usually doesn't get very deep into the game and this Astros bullpen is bad. The Mets bullpen is equally bad. If the bullpens are in this game much at all, I like the chances for the over here. Take the over.
|
04-19-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 |
|
0-11 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 25 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals Takedown* Neither of these team's is hitting the baseball well at all right now, and I think the value is on the under in this game once again. The under is 16-5 in the Twins last 21 games. The under is 7-3 in the Orioles last 10 home games. Carl Pavano has been solid in his last couple outings, and Jake Arrieta is a solid young pitcher. Justin Morneau is questionable for this game with the flu, and Mauer is still out of the lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 15 mph, which should help. Take the under here.
|
04-19-11 |
New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 192.5 |
|
93-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The fact that Game One was such a low scoring game has made the books adjust this total lower by 4.5 points. I think this adjustment gives us a solid value on the over. Chauncey Billups is likely out tonight, but that might actually help the over. The Knicks will probably push the tempo more without Billups in the lineup. Carmelo Anthony is unlikely to go 5/18 again, and I think we'll see far more free throw attempts than we did in the first game. Three of the four regular season meetings went over 200, and I think getting the over at just 192.5 is a great value. Take the over.
|
04-19-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 0 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays don't have a good lineup at all this year, and their key hitter, Johnny Damon, is out right now. John Danks is a pretty good pitcher, and I don't expect the Rays to be able to put up many runs against Danks. James Shields is on the hill for the Rays, and he is a much better pitcher at home. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0-1 in Danks' last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in Vic Carapazza's last 4 games as the umpire as well, so that doesn't hurt. Take the under.
|
04-18-11 |
Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls OVER 191 |
|
90-96 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Bulls fell behind early in Game One, but they pulled it out thanks to a great effort from Derrick Rose. Chicago also has a big advantage on the boards in this matchup. The Pacers like to push the tempo, and the Bulls seem to be ok with that. The Pacers have made it clear they are looking to knock down Rose at every opportunity, but he has been knocking down free throws and making them pay. Rose has 21 free throw attempts in both of the last two games (42 total) against the Pacers. I think we'll see plenty of free throws again Monday. I like the over.
|
04-18-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals will actually be battling for first place in the AL Central in this series. Both teams are certainly exceeding expectations by a huge margin. I expect both to come down to earth over the season, but they do seem to be improving. Kyle Davies is one of my favorite pitchers to fade, but Carlos Carrasco hasn't been good on the road either. I think this total is too low. Davies has an ERA of 5.80 against Cleveland in his career, and his ERA at home as a Royal is 5.87. Carrasco and Davies squared off last year and the final was 11-4. While I'm not sure the total will reach 15 this time, I do think the over is the play here.
|
04-18-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9 |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 36 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Francisco Lirano actually pitched well most of the game in his last outing. He had one bad inning where the Royals strung together a bunch of bloop hits, but overall he looked better. The Orioles aren't hitting well right now, but they are definitely playing some very good defense. Justin Morneau missed Sunday's game with the flu, and he may well miss Monday's game as well. The Twins lineup is already without Joe Mauer. The under is 14-3 in the Twins last 17 games overall. The under is 34-16-1 in the Orioles last 51 against a left-handed pitcher. Take the under in this one.
|
04-17-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 10 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Over Play of the Day* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open, especially when the weather is hot with low humidity. The roof is expected to be open tomorrow with 90 degree heat and almost no humidity. Expect the ball to travel extremely well in this game. Bumgarner is struggling badly with his control this year and he can give up the long ball. Enright has struggled at home, especially with the roof open. While Saturday's game stayed under the total, I think this game will be a very high scoring game. Take the over.
|
04-17-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Seattle Mariners are a terrible hitting team. Other than Ichiro, they really don't have anyone on their team who scares the opposition much at all. Kansas City isn't better than average at the plate, and Michael Pineda has shown to be a very good young pitcher for the Mariners. Pineda should have the upper hand facing the Mariners for the first time. Jeff Francis has his command working very well so far this year, and the Royals may have gotten a good value when they picked him up. The under is 35-17-5 in Brian Runge's last 47 games behind the plate, and he is the umpire in this one. Take the under.
|
04-17-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Twins lineup simply isn't the same without Mauer in the middle of it. Jeremy Hellickson is a very good young pitcher for the Rays. Hellickson has an ERA of just 3.00 at home in his young career. Brian Duensing is a decent pitcher, and we all know the Rays offense has been terrible this year without Longoria. The under is 22-4 in the Rays last 26 games overall. Both teams are missing their best hitter, and I think this is the type of game where both starter's take control early. Take the under here.
|
04-17-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 |
|
1-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 18 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Totals Early Bird* Doug Eddings is behind the dish in this one, and there isn't a better umpire to have behind the plate if you want an 'under'. The Red Sox are still struggling to hit the ball well, and Eddings will have a wide strike zone. The under is 15-5-1 in Eddings last 21 games behind the plate. Jon Lester is pitching the Sox, and he has looked much better in his last couple outings. Lester is great at home, and the under is 4-1 in his last 5 starts against Toronto. I expect this one to stay under the total.
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04-16-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 10 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
20 h 34 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field becomes a hitter's paradise with the roof open. The Chase Field website says the roof is expected to be open in this one. We have two pitchers who are extremely capable of getting hit around in this matchup as well. Barry Zito is struggling in a big way with his control right now, and I think he'll get punished by this DBack offense if that continues on Saturday. Joe Saunders was lit up by the Cincinnati Reds in his last start with the roof open at home, and I think that is likely again here. The over is 4-1-1 in Zito's last 6 starts against Arizona. I expect a high scoring affair here. Take the over.
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04-16-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 180 |
|
103-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 55 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Playoff Total Domination* The Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic are very familiar with each other. They met in first round of the playoffs last year, when the Magic swept away the Hawks in four straight games. Then this year they met four times in the regular season, with the Hawks winning three of the four games. Both teams have improved defensively from a year ago. The Hawks have decided to slow down the game quite a bit this year. Atlanta's inefficiency on offense has been their undoing in their losses this year. The Hawks are averaging just 95 points per game. The trends here strongly support a play on the under. The under is 20-6 in Orlando's last 26 home games. The under is 11-4 in Atlanta's last 15 road games. The under is also 6-0 in their last six meetings against each other. I like the under in this game.
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04-16-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
13 h 35 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox are slumping in a big way right now, but JoJo Reyes is the type of pitcher that they should be able to hit. Reyes is a youngster who doesn't have any overpowering pitch to put away hitters. Josh Beckett has pitched well so far this year, but the Jays have been a thorn in his side in the past. Beckett's ERA against the Jays in his career is 7.03. This is a day game and Reyes has a terribly 7.07 ERA in his day starts. These Boston bats are too good to stay silenced forever, and I think they'll bust out here. At the same time, the Jays should score quite a few as well. I like the over.
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04-15-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 |
|
2-8 |
Loss |
-113 |
17 h 28 m |
Show
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*3 Star TGIF Bookie SMASHER* Zach Britton is the top pitching prospect in the Orioles organization, and he is one of the best in the majors. In his first two starts in the major leagues he has given up a total of just one run. He shut down the mighty Texas Rangers lineup in his last start. Justin Masterson has been very good at home over the years. His ERA at home is 3.83 in his career. The Indians don't have a very good lineup, but they are playing great defense. The Orioles defense has been tremendous this year. The under is 13-5 in the Orioles last 18 games overall. The under is 6-1 in Masterson's last 7 starts overall. The under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two. I like this one to stay under the posted total.
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04-14-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. New York Yankees OVER 10 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 33 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Phil Hughes has not been good at all this year. Hughes hasn't been able to put anyone away. In fact, Hughes has just one strikeout through two starts. This Baltimore lineup has struggled a bit so far this year, but they have a ton of talent and I think they could bust out at any point. On the other side, Arrieta is a pretty decent young pitcher, but I don't expect him to shut down this very good Yankees lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. Phil Hughes has trouble with the long ball, and he hasn't fared well at Yankee Stadium. The over is 14-5 in his last 19 starts at home. The over is also 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts against Baltimore. Take the over.
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04-13-11 |
St.Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
15-5 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 1 m |
Show
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*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* Chase Field once again showed how friendly it is to hitters when the roof is open last night. The DBacks won 13-8 in a game with Chris Carpenter as the starter for the Cardinals. I've cashed in twice with the over in this series, and I'm going to try for a sweep here. The dry heat causes the ball to carry in the desert air and it is a huge boost to the over. Jake Westbrook hasn't pitched well on the road. The over is 4-1 in his lats 5 road starts. The over is 5-2-1 in Kennedy's last 8 home starts. Take the over.
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04-13-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Houston Astros UNDER 7.5 |
|
9-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 35 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Wandy Rodriguez is absolutely terrific at home, and Carlos Zambrano is a much better pitcher on the road. The umpire in this one, Paul Emmel, has a wide strike zone, and typically calls quite a few 'under' games. The trends in this one are extremely impressive. The under is 6-0 in Rodriguez's last 6 home starts against the Cubs. The under is 12-2 in Zambrano's last 14 road starts against the Astros. The under is 32-14-2 in the last 48 meetings between these two teams in Houston. I expect a pitcher's duel in this one. Take the under.
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04-13-11 |
Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz OVER 207 |
|
103-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* This is a game that means very little to either team. What does a meaningless game in the NBA usually mean? I think it means very little defense and a lot of points. Denver has been piling up the points in their last couple games. They scored 130 against Minnesota and 134 against Golden State. The Jazz defense won't scare anyone. I think the pace to this game will be quick. The referee crew here is a nice crew for the over, especially Pat Fraher (41 games over 26 games under this year). Look for a high scoring affair in this regular season finale.
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04-13-11 |
Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7.5 |
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7-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
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*3 Star Early Bird Total* I unsuccessfully played the under in this matchup last night, but I think Thursday afternoon's game is likely to be lower scoring. Both teams have struggled against left-handers, and both pitchers in this game are high quality left-handed starters. The Athletics are hitting less than .200 against lefties this year, and the White Sox are only scoring 3 runs per game against lefties. The under is 4-1 in Danks' last 5 starts against Oakland. The under is 9-4 in Anderson's last 13 road starts. The under is 25-10-1 in these two teams last 36 meetings in Chicago. Take the under.
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04-12-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
104 |
21 h 36 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* The Los Angeles Angels have a very poor offense this year. Fausto Carmona has fared extremely well in the past against the Angels. Torii Hunter is just 5 for 28 in his career against Carmona. Dan Haren has been one of the best first-half starters in the league for the last few years. The Angels have made it a habit to not give Haren much run support at all. The under is 8-0-1 in Haren's last 9 starts overall. The under is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings between these two. Barrett is the umpire in this one, and he leans slightly toward the under. I like the under in this game.
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04-12-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
8-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
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*3 Star Weather Factors Over Play* Chase Field is a whole different ballpark when the roof is open. On a warm day with low humidity the ball travels extremely well in the desert. Last night it was a little cooler than it will be tonight, and there were three home runs last night. Don't be surprised if there are three or more home runs in this one. Chris Carpenter is a very good pitcher, but he has the tendency to get frustrated easily, and I could see these young DBacks getting to him a bit. On the other side, Galarraga makes his first home start, and I don't think he will be well-suited to this park. He was in a pitcher's park in Detroit the last few years, and he will find this ballpark a whole different story. I like the over in this one.
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04-12-11 |
Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 42 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Trevor Cahill is one of the better pitchers in the American League. Cahill has great command and he is a bulldog on the mound. Edwin Jackson is a streaky pitcher, and he has started the season red hot. Neither of these teams has a terrific lineup. The under is 5-0 in Oakland's last 5 games overall. The under is 4-1 in Cahill's last 5 starts against the White Sox. The under is also 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings between these teams. I expect a game with some very good starting pitching here. Take the under.
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04-11-11 |
Cincinnati Reds v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
21 h 24 m |
Show
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*3 Star Late Night Bailout* The Cincinnati Reds have one of the better offenses in all of baseball. With Phillips, Votto, Rolen, Gomes, and Bruce they have plenty of guys in the middle of the order who can make you pay with one swing of the bat. Mat Latos has been injured and will make his first start in this one. Latos is very good, but he could be a little rusty in his first start back. Edinson Volquez is on the hill for Cincinnati, and he has been very erratic this year. Volquez often struggles to find the strike zone. Petco is definitely a pitcher's park, but with two starting pitcher's who have significant question marks in this one I am taking the over.
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04-11-11 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings OVER 208 |
|
120-112 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Oklahoma City Thunder put on an offensive clinic on Sunday night in Los Angeles. The Thunder have a fighter's chance at taking either the #2 or #3 seed in the Western Conference, but they need to win both of their last two games. The Kings have been playing hard of late, but they don't play much defense. Sacramento is allowing 105.2 points per game in their last five. Oklahoma City is averaging 105.8 points per game in their last five. The Thunder put up 126 points againts the Kings in their last meeting. I think this game will be closer, but the pace will be quick. Both teams shoot it very well from the free throw line, which should help the 'over' quite a bit. The over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 meetings in Sacramento. Take the over.
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04-11-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 20 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field becomes a hitter's dream when the roof is open. The low humidity helps the ball carry extremely well. One would think the roof will be on Monday night with a forecast of 75 degrees and sunny. Kyle McClellan and Barry Enright are both inconsistent pitchers, and I think they will get hit around pretty good in this one. It is quite normal for games to finish 10-8 like the DBacks game against the Reds did on Sunday when the roof is open. The Cardinals hitters have struggled this year, but with Matt Holiday back in the lineup they should improve quite a bit. Take the over.
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04-10-11 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 192 |
|
120-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
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*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't far from catching the Lakers for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, and you can bet they would love to steal that spot. The biggest change in this Oklahoma City team since they acquired Kendrick Perkins is their ability to play much better defense. The Lakers have been horrible offensive of late. In fact, the Lakers are averaging just 88.8 points per game in their last five contests. At the same time, the Lakers defense is much improved this year. The defensive intensity of the Lakers has been on display for much of the season. The under is 46-22 in the Lakers last 68 games overall. The under is 6-1 in the Thunder's last 7 road games. The under is 38-11-2 in the Lakers last 51 Sunday games. I like the under in what should be a hotly contested game.
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04-10-11 |
Oakland A's v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 8 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland A's have a poor offense that struggles to manufacture runs. They also lack a real power hitter. Minnesota can score some runs at times, but Brandon McCarthy has the stuff to shut them down. A big reason I like this play so much is the home plate umpire in this one. Bill Miller is behind the dish here and he has been an under machine in the last couple years. The under is 54-24-6 in his last 84 games behind home plate. Both pitchers should be getting the corners in this one. I expect this one to stay under the posted total.
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04-10-11 |
Washington Nationals v. New York Mets UNDER 8 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-109 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
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*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals don't have a lineup that will be able to put up a ton of runs all that often. New York is a decent offense, but I think Jason Marquis has a solid chance to shut them down. Marquis is a very streaky pitcher, and he looked good in Spring Training and in his first start. He is keeping the ball down and getting a lot of ground balls. Brian Gorman is the umpire in this one and he generally has a pretty large strike zone. Chris Young has pretty good stuff and I think he could do well in New York this year. I like the under in this one.
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