*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls offense is better than they have looked so far this season. Rice was 52nd in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They are 289th so far this year. This is a bunch of the same guys playing, they just aren't making the shots they did a year ago. They are shooting only 27.9% from 3 point range and I expect that to improve in a big way.

Rice has played a very tough schedule of defenses this year. They have had to go up against Harvard, Texas, UC Irvine, and Houston to name a few. 

Incarnate Word is arguably the worst defense Rice has played so far this season. They are 347th in defensive efficiency. They are 35th in overall tempo, so they have given up loads of points. UTSA scored 90 points on Incarnate Word. Bethune Cookman scored 96 points on them. 

Rice is below average on defense, and Incarnate Word will put up a lot of shots here. Rice doesn't force many turnovers and that is usually the biggest weakness of the Incarnate Word offense.

A day game where it is "School House Mania" and school children will be in attendance. This should be a fun up and down game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 356th in average possession length. This is a team that is playing extremely slowly. Green Bay has a new coach in Sundance Wicks. He has this team playing much better defense than they did a year ago. Green Bay was a miserable 345th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are at 78th in the country right now. The Phoenix have been mixing up their defenses really well.

UIC is coached by a defensive minded coach in Luke Yaklich. He did a great job leading the Michigan and Texas defenses when he was an assistant. UIC is 11th in effective field goal percentage defense. UIC is 242nd in tempo as well, so they are good with lower tempo games.

Seven of Green Bay's ten games have stayed under this low total. UIC has played some very quick paced teams. That shouldn't be an issue here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills offense is still a top five offense in the NFL. Without Ken Dorsey, this Bills offense has been more aggressive and they have looked to run Josh Allen more often.

The Bills defense is still a bit banged up and this unit is no better than an average NFL unit at best. 

Kansas City's offense has been less explosive in general, but the Chiefs are still top 8 in the NFL in yards per play. The Chiefs have to be aggressive here on offense coming off such a poor performance in Green Bay last week.

The Chiefs defense has quietly really fallen off of late. They have allowed 5.6 YPP in their last three games. 

I think both offenses should play well here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns offense is a mess right now. Regardless of who is the quarterback for this game, it will be a position where the Browns have a clear weakness. Cleveland's offense is third worst in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. They are only ahead of the lowly Panthers and Jets.

The Cleveland defense is one of the best in the NFL and they are holding opponents to an average of just 3.4 yards per play when at home. Cleveland's defense had a subpar performance against the Rams, and I would expect a bounce back here.

The Jaguars offense is middle of the pack in the NFL. The defense is a little worse, but they are against a weak offense here.

The weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast for this one calls for rain and winds of about 25 mph with gusts above 30 mph. Multiple sites are showing similar forecasts here. We know Cleveland is a place where the weather matters a lot with the stadium so close to the lake. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been scoring a lot of points, and their defense has shown to have major problems in recent weeks. In the Lions last four games, there has been an average combined total of 61.5 points. 

Detroit is allowing 5.6 yards per play in their last three games. This is looking like a bottom ten defense or so. The Lions are clearly a top five offense too. Detroit has good balance on offense and they have been able to cash in well in the red zone.

The Chicago Bears offense is improving. The Bears scored 26 points on Detroit a couple weeks ago and they probably should have won the game in Detroit. The Bears defense is still a below average unit.

The total here was pushed down earlier in the week due to potential weather concerns. The forecast here has changed though and the current weather calls for no precipitation and winds of just 12 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* It isn't easy to take a Gonzaga game under, but this total has gotten high enough I have to take this one. I had this number at 158. 

This is played at a neutral site. Gonzaga's offense is clearly very good, but they aren't elite as they were a year ago. Gonzaga was 20th in shot selection last year. They are 222nd so far this year. They have knocked down quite a few tough shots, but that could regress against a long athletic Washington defense.

Washington slowed down last year's meeting between these two and it finished just 77-60. This one should be higher than that, but I'm not convinced this should have a mid 160's total on it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats are 357th out of 362 teams in the country in tempo. Weber State is great at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive rebounds and preventing second chance points. 

Cal Poly toyed with playing quicker earlier in the season, but they are back down to 346th in average possession length. The Mustangs just had a 49-49 game at the end of regulation against Oregon State last time out. They have slowed the pace drastically in recent weeks.

Weber State has held St. Mary's to 56 points and Yale to 59 in regulation. 

I think this will be a defensive game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers are a terrible shooting team. They are shooting only 25.7% from 3 point range. The Beavers do play good defense though. They are 65th in effective field goal percentage defense despite playing a tough schedule of opposing offenses. 

Utah Valley is 62nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Utah Valley will probably be without key player Drake Allen in these games. The Wolverines have significantly slowed down their tempo under new coach Todd Phillips.

Two teams who are better on defense than offense and they both prefer to play slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met a year ago and the final was 59-49 with an extremely slow pace of 55 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the year for Fullerton and the second slowest for Sacramento.

Fullerton has played the 27th toughest slate of offenses this year, so their defensive numbers should improve. The Titans have been dreadful on offense. They are settling for too many mid range jumpers. 

Sacramento State shoots a lot of shots from long range, but Fullerton has been good defending the arc last year and this year so far.

Both teams turn it over a lot and waste possessions. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave are a very fast paced team. They have had a lot of high scoring games this year. Tulane though is about to play against the best defense they have faced so far this year, and it isn't close.

Tulane will probably be without Cross in this game which hurts the offense a lot. Tulane has played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this year, and playing against the grind it out defense of Chris Jans and company should be tough for them.

Mississippi State's offense has clear issues. The Bulldogs scored 59 points against GA Tech two games ago and then scored 59 again last game in a shocking loss to Southern.

I think Miss State will do their best to slow the pace down here. They protect the paint well and should be able to make Tulane work hard.

A neutral site here and an early game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 309th and 333rd in the nation in tempo. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Eastern Illinois is 351st in the nation in shot selection on offense. They are 338th in the nation in spacing on offense.

IUPUI is 313th in shot selection and 350th in spacing on offense.

Last year when these two teams met they both were playing quicker. The final combined total was 129 points and that was with 43 fouls called in the game.

This is a game I projected in the high 120's. After a line move toward the over, I'll go back the other way.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Do I really want to bet a Pacers/Bucks under? No. This number is so high though. It is the highest total in an NBA game this year. This is a strange mid afternoon start time in Las Vegas on a neutral court. It is a semifinal game in the NBA In Season Tournament. 

The players do seem to care at least a decent amount about the In Season Tournament. The Bucks defense has improved a bit in recent weeks and the team has been talking a lot about needing to step up defensively in a game like this. 

Indiana plays quickly and they are a good offense. The Pacers recent games being so high scoring has pushed this total up quite a bit.

Earlier this season these two met and the total was 239.5. This is a huge adjustment for a game being played a little less than a month later. The first game hit 250 points with good shooting numbers. 

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Valparaiso has a new coach this year and they are struggling badly on offense. This team is 348th in shot selection out of 363 teams in the country so far this year. Valpo is much improved on defense though. They are contesting shots very well.

Central Michigan is 232nd in the country in tempo. Valparaiso is 152nd. The pace of the game could be relatively quick, but I think the efficiencies will be poor here. 

C Michigan is 299th in shot selection in the country. This team shoots it poorly and turns it over far too often.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are playing a very slow controlled style under Micah Shrewsberry. They are 336th in average possession length in the country. Notre Dame doesn't yet have the scorers to be ultra efficient on offense like Shrewsberry's Penn State teams, but he is a smart coach and he'll have them playing the right style until they do. 

Western Michigan is a team who turns the ball over at a very high rate. The Broncos also jack up a bunch of three pointers. They are shooting 36.3% from long range on the year, and I fully expect this number to drop. This is a team that shot 33 and 32% the last couple seasons. 

Notre Dame is top 100 in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. They are bottom 100 in offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. 

Western Michigan likes to play slowly too. This should be a game played in the halfcourt.

Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have played quicker in the non-conference portion of their schedule several times in the past, and they have always slowed things back down quite a bit when the Big Ten season gets here. I think they are pretty likely to do the same thing here.

Iowa plays really fast and the Hawkeyes are a great offense. I understand why the total is very high. The Hawkeyes have played a lot of very fast paced opponents with questionable defenses though. The Hawkeyes scored just 67 against an Oklahoma defense that is 10th in defensive efficiency in the country. 

Purdue ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers obviously have the height and interior presence on defense. Iowa isn't as good from long range this year.

I think this will be a high scoring game, but this total is so extreme that I have to side with the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans are 5th in the NFL in yards per play this year. C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense has surprised the NFL in general. Tank Dell has been a great weapon on the outside. Houston would have had bigger numbers on offense last week against Jacksonville if it weren't for a couple questionable penalties called on big gainers. The Texans are unlikely to be slowed down too much by a Denver defense that is still clearly below average. Their recent numbers look better, but their last two games have been against backup quarterbacks. The defense of the Broncos gets a much tougher test here.

The Denver Broncos offense is at least an average unit now. The new coaching staff has really helped them a lot. Denver has scored 21 points or more in four straight games. They now go play in a dome against a Houston defense that is allowing 6.3 YPP in their last three games. 

The fast track here and two offenses with the capability of creating explosive plays at any time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots defense is still pretty good. The Patriots are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. New England's defense is put in bad spots, but they are still a quality unit.

The LA Chargers have shown the ability to move the ball well, but find ways to not score touchdowns. I think the Patriots can slow them down and limit the explosive plays.

New England has a terrible quarterback problem, and they do lack skill position players in general on offense. The Pats offense has progressively gotten worse throughout the year.

The weather here calls for rain throughout the game with wind gusts of 20 mph. This should make for some more conservative play calls during the game.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies are trying their best to get to the basket on offense. It has worked pretty well, but UC Irvine has a long history of defending the paint very well. The Anteaters are coached by a defensive minded coach in Russell Turner. I expect Irvine to contest these Utah State drives into the paint well in this one.

UC Irvine has faced the 34th toughest slate of offenses on the season thus far. They have faced just the 157th toughest slate of defenses on the season thus far. UC Irvine's stats are skewed a bit right now based on the toughness of the offenses they have had to face.

The tempo should be no faster than average here. Both teams have a pretty high turnover rate, so I see plenty of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* FSU put up just 3.9 yards per play on a bad Florida defense last week. I know it is a rivalry game, but that is concerning. Florida had been getting torched weekly until last week. FSU 4th in explosiveness on offense for the year, but likely less explosive with Tate Rodemaker at QB. 

Louisville defense 40th in YPP allowed, but 21st at PFF in overall defense grade. 6th in defensive line yards. FSU is 111th in offensive line yards. I don’t think FSU can just run it down their throats. 

Louisville 91st in OFF Line yards. FSU 13th in DEF Line yards. I think the Cardinals ground game has trouble getting going too. The FSU defense has been underrated throughout the season. Louisville's Plummer has been inconsistent at quarterback this year.

There is some rain and a little wind in the forecast as well.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs toyed with playing a quicker tempo earlier in the season, but they have gone back to slowing it down in a big way of late. They are 344th in the nation in average possession length, and that is after starting out playing pretty quick. They have slowed things to a crawl in recent games.

Idaho has a new coach this year, and they are 280th in overall tempo this year. The Vandals are not likely to be able to take advantage of Cal Poly's biggest weakness on defense (fouling too much). Idaho is 358th in FTA/FGA on the year. Idaho is a very poor shooting team on the whole too.

Idaho's recent games show they have slowed down the typically fast Denver and UC San Diego. 

I think the tempo trends point to the full season data being too quick on the pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Preston Stone is a key loss for SMU at quarterback. Jennings has very little experience at quarterback.

SMU gave up just 4.4 yards per play in the AAC. Amazing! The Mustangs held 4 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. 

Tulane’s offense didn’t really work nearly as well as expected this year. Tulane was 108th in rushing play success rate on offense- very low for a Willie Fritz coached team. SMU 11th in rushing play success rate allowed.

SMU has a great pass rush. 5th in the country in pass rush grade at PFF. 40 sacks!! Pratt is good but I think he’ll be under pressure more than normal here. 

Tulane plays at a slow pace. They run on 60% of offensive plays.

SMU offense should be a bit more conservative with Jennings. If anything I would expect more running. The Tulane run defense has been elite. The way to beat the Tulane defense has been passing.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are playing a new style of basketball under Coach Newman. They are picking up the pace in a big way and attacking the rim hard on offense. They are getting to the basket often and drawing quite a few fouls too. Northridge is now up against a Northern Colorado team who is weak when it comes to interior defense. The Matadors should get good looks inside here.

Northern Colorado likes to shoot the outside jumper. The Bears haven't shot the ball as well as I would expect them to so far this year. I think they'll improve. Northridge likely has a hard time keeping them contained here.

Northridge is 39th in the country in overall tempo. Northern Colorado is 72nd. This one should be a track meet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets won 17-7 last year in the MAC Title game against an Ohio Bobcats team without their star quarterback. Toledo ran the ball over and over again in that game and grinded it out. Now, Toledo goes into the title game in the MAC against a Miami team without star quarterback Brett Gabbert.

Aveon Smith has struggled badly for Miami. Miami is going to want to run the football as much as they can and move very slowly. They don't want a high scoring game, because their offense simply isn't good enough to win shootouts. Toledo does give up successful running plays, but they are excellent in the secondary and they don't give up explosive plays. Miami's drives should take a bunch of time off the clock. 

Toledo had just 4.3 yards per play in their 21-17 win over Miami in the regular season. The Rockets want to run the ball a lot, but Miami has the best run defense in the MAC. Miami has allowed 21 points or fewer in every MAC game they have played this year. 

I don't think we'll see many big plays here. Toledo likely wins, but Miami's defense won't make it easy.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* George Washington has had some very high scoring games this year, but those games were against teams that were nothing like South Carolina. 

George Washington has played some very fast paced opponents this year. They haven't played a team in the bottom 125 teams in the country in tempo all season. That will change here. South Carolina is 306th in tempo out of 362 teams. Lamont Parris' teams have a strong preference for slowing things down.

George Washington is shooting 37% from 3 point range this year. This is a team that shot 33 and 32% from 3 point range the last two seasons. They are 335th in the country in open 3 rate. They should cool off from long range eventually.

South Carolina is also shooting better from 3 than I would expect. The Gamecocks have shot 31 and 32% from 3 point range the last two seasons, but they are at 37% this year.

Neither team has a history of fouling much and they are both excellent on the defensive glass.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos are 292nd in the country in tempo. St. Thomas is 354th out of 362 in the country in tempo. This should be played in the halfcourt.

St. Thomas worked extensively in the offseason on improving on defense. It has helped them improve some on that end this year. Andrew Rohde was their go to guy that the offense ran through last year, and now he is a Virginia Cavalier. This offense isn't nearly as efficient. They almost never get offensive rebounds or get to the line, and they aren't as good shooting from the outside so far this year.

Western Michigan is atrocious from the FT line (58%). The Broncos are shooting 39.4% from 3 point range, but I see no reason to believe they can shoot that well in the long run. They have been 33, 33, and 32% from three point range the last three seasons. 

A slow pace and not many second chances or free throws.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UIC Flames have finally improved a lot on the defensive end this year. Luke Yaklich is a defensive minded coach who has done some great work with defenses in the past (at Michigan and Texas). UIC is 11th in effective field goal percentage allowed. 

Illinois State is 343rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage on offense. The RedBirds have played against only the 305th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. UIC is the best defense that Illinois State has played thus far. Illinois State is above average on defense, and they have been excellent at forcing turnovers. 

UIC is 240th in the nation in average possession length. Illinois State is 224th in average possession length. The tempo should be relatively slow here.

I see this as a sloppy game where the defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Valley Wolverines have a completely new team this year. They returned just 4.4% of their minutes from last year. Utah Valley has a new coach too after Mark Madsen left for Cal. Utah Valley's tempo has slowed down a lot this year. They are using about a second more per possession, and they are an extremely poor shooting team. They are just 55.4% from the free throw line through their first four Division I games. 

Seattle is 49th in the effective field goal percentage defense. They are also playing a good amount slower than a year ago. This is a team that has held opponents to very tough shots. They are 22nd best in the country in shot selection allowed so far this year.

These are two good defensive rebounding teams. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers spoke of playing quicker and playing a different style under Aaron Fearne this year. They haven't done that. Charlotte is once again one of the slowest paced teams in the country. The 49ers highest scoring game this year (regulation) was 130 points. Five of the six games have finished regulation with a combined total of 122 points or less. 

Charlotte is getting worse shots this year than last year. They are 240th in shot selection in the country. They are 311th in spacing on offense. Charlotte is getting almost no offensive rebounds.

Davidson is 311th in tempo, so they prefer to play very slowly too. 

Both teams excel at defending without fouling, so we shouldn't see too many free throws here.

With the line move up today, I have to go to the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores have a great offensive minded coach in Josh Schertz. His style of play is pushing the tempo to the maximum and getting up a bunch of three point jumpers or getting to the hoop. There are virtually no mid range jumpers in his offense. Indiana State's rim and 3 rate is right up there with Alabama.

Indiana State is first in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They are 14th quickest in the nation in average possession length. This Sycamores team brought in a great long range shooter in Isaiah Swope from Southern Indiana. He is 17/35 from 3 point range so far this year. 

The Southern Illinois Salukis are a slower paced team, but the Salukis are improved on offense so far this year. They are top 40 in the country in effective field goal percentage offense.

Southern Illinois lacks a rim protector and I think Indiana State can get to the basket against them.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams are 290th and 312th in the nation in tempo. This game should be played almost exclusively in the halfcourt offensive sets. 

South Carolina is shooting 39% from 3 point range so far this year. The Gamecocks shot 31% and 32% from long range in the last two seasons. I think their numbers will regress to the mean. 

South Carolina's defense has been pretty good this year. The Gamecocks have one big weakness and that is fouling too much. Notre Dame is bottom 50 in the country in getting to the free throw line. 

Notre Dame has a good coach in Shrewsberry, but he doesn't have the talent in place to have a strong offense yet. This is a team that has to play very slow and try to win with solid defense and taking care of the basketball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is still underrated. Kansas City fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA. They have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. 

Las Vegas has changed their style of play for their new coach. They are running the ball more and trying to keep games lower scoring and win with defense. The Raiders defense is 16th in DVOA and they have a strong pass rush.

These two teams are both top eight in the NFL in explosiveness allowed. They don't give up the big plays very often.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo. 

Las Vegas has had nine games in a row stay under this posted total. The Chiefs have had 3 straight games go under this posted total. A combined 12 straight games under this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills are third in the NFL in yards per play and all the advanced stats still show this Buffalo offense as a top five offense. Josh Allen and this offense looked good against a good Jets defense last week in their first week without Dorsey as OC. Buffalo's passing attack has a nice edge over the Eagles secondary. Philadelphia's one weakness as a team is their secondary. I think Buffalo can take advantage of that weakness.

The Philadelphia Eagles offense has been a little inconsistent this year, but I think they can play well against a Buffalo defense that isn't good in its current state. The Bills defense has suffered a ton of key injuries. 

These two teams rank 16th and 17th in yards per play allowed. Both offenses have big play ability.

Rain is the in forecast, but there isn't any wind to speak of in the forecast and that is the big key.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles have a new coach and they are playing completely differently this year. Coppin State was 19th in the nation in tempo last year. The Eagles were running at every single opportunity. Fast forward to this season and Coppin State sits at 304th in tempo in the country. 

Coppin State is also dead last in the country in offensive efficiency. They are taking some terrible shots. Coppin State has been held to 49 points or fewer in four of their six games this season.

La Salle has been about average in terms of tempo this year. The Explorers under Fran Dunphy have typically not run up the score too badly late in games when they have a lead. They should be up throughout in this game. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers defense ranks first in explosiveness allowed. The Maryland defense ranks 8th in explosiveness allowed. These two are very good at not giving up that huge play. 

Rutgers is 127th in the nation in tempo. The Scarlet Knights are going to play slowly, and they are going to run the football as often as possible.

Rutgers is 10th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Schiano's defenses always play very hard and this one is no different. The strength of their defense is their secondary. Maryland likes to throw the ball and Rutgers should have the guys to slow them down.

Maryland's defense is much improved this year. They are 25th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

The Rutgers offense has scored 16 points total in the last two years against Maryland. They will likely struggle again here. Rutgers is much better defensively this year than the last two years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies offense has hit a whole new gear in recent weeks. With Drones at quarterback instead of Wells, this is a much more explosive offense. Drones has been very good running and good enough in the passing game too. VA Tech put up 7.6 yards per play on a very good NC State defense last week. They put up 8.3 YPP two weeks ago on the Boston College defense.

Virginia has a good young quarterback in Colandrea. He is a big play guy either way at this stage in his career. He throws too many picks and a pick six is always a possibility, but he is creating big plays for the Cavs on offense too. Virginia has 6.4 YPP on a good Louisville defense two weeks ago and an impressive 6.3 YPP against Duke last week too.

Virginia has picked up their pace of late. 

These two teams are 114th and 120th in the country in explosiveness allowed. The weather calls for a nice day here. Expect some big plays.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies rank dead last (362nd) in the country in defensive efficiency. The Aggies have allowed 88 points or more in all but one game so far this year. They just allowed 96 points to Merrimack and 88 points to Alabama State in their last two games. Both of those teams are inefficient offenses who usually struggle to score. 

Samford is a very fast paced team (45th in overall tempo) and the Bulldogs like to use full court pressure to speed the game up. They have scored 89 points or more in three of their last four games. I think they put up a big number in this game.

Both of these teams have given up a lot of second chance points on the year. Both teams have been above average from the free throw line as well.

Two teams in the top 60 in tempo and I expect a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders passing attack has been much better in the last few weeks. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has 12 touchdown passes compared to just 4 interceptions in MTSU's last four games. The offense has picked up their pace significantly too, and it has been working. 

Sam Houston State's offense was dreadul early in the season, but they have been much better in the last five games.

Both teams are snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds which is far quicker than the national average. A total set this low for a game played at this pace is pretty rare unless there are elite defenses.

The MTSU defense is 77th in the nation in YPP allowed and Sam Houston is 99th. MTSU is 11th in the nation in explosiveness on offense.

It's the last game for both and I think the offenses will show up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jayden Daniels has impressed me the most of any player in the country this year. He was very good last year in Brian Kelly's system, but this year he has been elite. LSU is clearly putting up as many stats as possible for Daniels to try to get him the Heisman Trophy. Daniels is one of the two favorites (Bo Nix) for the award. Nix is likely to get more games to play while Daniels will not. This is LSU's last chance to feature Daniels and put up a big number.

The Texas A&M secondary is banged up right now, and LSU should be able to hit some explosive plays on them. Texas A&M has a good defense overall, but Miami put up 48 points on them and Ole Miss scored 38. The LSU offense is the best one they have faced all seaosn.

The LSU defense is one of the worst in the SEC. While we don't know if it will be Henderson or Johnson at quarterback for A&M here, I think they can score enough regardless. LSU has allowed 117 plays of 10 yards or more this year.

LSU will score a lot here. I expect A&M to do enough too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Revolutionaries and the Ohio Bobcats meet in a neutral site battle in the Bahamas on Friday night. George Washington has been white shot shooting the basketball so far this year. After shooting either 32 or 33% from three point range the last three years in a row, they are shooting 38.3% from long range so far this year. They haven't even been getting open looks either. George Washington ranks 338th in the nation in open 3 rate so far this year. This team isn't likely to keep shooting the ball so well.

Ohio is an above average defense. The Bobcats are 19th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. I don't think they are that good, but they are a pretty good defense. 

Ohio is an average paced team. George Washington has been playing teams that are absolute burners and this is likely to be a slower paced game. 

This is an early season neutral site game and these have trended under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders have played four games against Division One teams this year. The highest scoring game of those finished at 131 points. One of the games finished at 129 combined points after an overtime. MTSU is consistently playing excellent defense and settling for a lot of poor mid range jumpers on offense. 

UIC is getting better defensively under defensive minded coach Luke Yaklich. UIC has an elite shot blocker down low in Toby Okani. The Flames have been busy playing teams who want to run which has skewed their totals higher in the early going. Now, they play a team who wants to slow things down and turn it into a halfcourt battle.

An early season neutral site game- these have skewed under in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number has been knocked down several points, and I'm going to side with the over.

Jacksonville is playing much faster than they did a year ago. They played a 70 possession game and put up 85 points against GA Southern. 

Robert Morris put up a respectable 68 points in a loss to defensive minded Wisconsin. The Colonials went under this total by one point against Towson, but Towson is among the five slowest teams in the country.

Both teams are bad on the defensive glass. Second chance opportunities could be crucial in this one. They both foul a lot as well. Both teams shoot a high percentage from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SE Louisiana Lions have slowed their pace down drastically this year. SE Louisiana is 328th in the nation in average possession length. Last year they were 79th. SE Louisiana was able to slow down a very fast paced Santa Clara team in their last game.

Western Michigan has to slow the pace down consistently. The Broncos just don't have a good enough offense to win many high scoring contests. W Michigan is 332nd in the nation in average possession length.

This game is being played at Northwest Florida State College Arena as part of a neutral site tournament. This has been a good venue for unders in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats are a good offense, but their offensive numbers are skewed a bit right now because of who they have faced. Arizona has played three teams outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage defense. They have only played one good defense this year and that was Duke. Duke is 73rd in effective field goal percentage defense. Michigan State is much better at 7th. 

The Spartans block a lot of shots and really defend the paint well. Michigan State is 200th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Spartans aren't going to be able to get easy looks against a very tall Arizona team either. Arizona is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Michigan State is likely to want to slow this game down. They are 329th in tempo this year. Arizona will try to run. I think Arizona's transition offense will be less efficient in this one than they have been the rest of the year.

This is a neutral court that is usually a hockey arena. That is long term a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* I see a lot of paths pointing to a lot of points being scored in this game. Tulane is great at forcing the tempo of the game. The Green Wave are 24th quickest in the country in average possession length. Tulane has been great at getting to the free throw line every year under Ron Hunter. Cal just put UTEP on the line 37 times yesterday, and the Golden Bears are likely to commit a lot of fouls in this one.

Cal is an average paced team on offense. They have played several teams who like to stall, but they are up against a very quick paced team today. One of Cal's biggest strengths is getting second chance points off the offensive rebounds. Tulane is a very weak rebounding team.

This line has moved down because it is a neutral floor game, but I think it has moved down too much. Neither defense is all that good, and the offenses have key advantages.

Take the over. 

*Note- I would bet this as high as 155 if it goes up.* 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights are now coached by Jack Castleberry. He promised before the season to keep this program playing at a very fast pace. He has kept his program thus far. The Knights have played at the 7th fastest pace of any team in the country. Castleberry not only coached under Tobin Anderson, but he also was an assistant at The Citadel under the ultra fast paced Duggar Baucom. This team should keep running and gunning. Their big weakness on defense is not being able to grab defensive rebounds. 

Queens always wants to run. They have played four teams in a row who play at an average or slower pace. That has kept their scores down of late. They now face a team who also wants to run and play very quick. Queens is only shooting 29.8% from 3 point range, and they shot 34.8% from 3 last year. I think their shooting numbers will improve in time.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors have slowed down their pace to just 328th in the country in overall tempo. Austin Peay ranks 350th out of 362 teams in shot selection so far this year. They are taking a bunch of bad jump shots. They are living in the mid range contested jumper area so far this season.

Sacramento State is 244th in shot selection. The Hornets are 293rd in overall tempo this year, and Coach Patrick has consistently had his teams play very slowly.

I don't think either team wants to run in this one. Both teams turn it over a bunch so I see a lot of wasted possessions. 

This is a neutral floor game played early in the day. That has been a bonus for under bettors in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix have turned every game into a halfcourt sloppy game this year. Green Bay is stalling to the max right now. Green Bay is 359th out of 362 in average possession length. 

The UC Riverside Highlanders are consistently a slow paced team that is better on the defensive end than the offensive end under Mike Magpayo. They have finished in the bottom 50 in average possession length each season with him as coach.

This is a neutral site game and these early season neutral site games have skewed toward the under in the last decade.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles take on the Buffalo Bulls in Buffalo on Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo are 9th and 10th in the MAC in yards per play on offense. 

Buffalo had high scoring games in the non conference, but in MAC contests they have had a bunch of low scoring games. Buffalo has seen 5 of their 7 games in the MAC finish at 38 total points or lower. Eastern Michigan has had five games finish at 36 points or lower.

These two are the least explosive offenses in the MAC. They rarely get big plays and the defenses should have the edge.

The weather should play a big role here. There is rain in the forecast with sustained winds 17 mph and gusts to 25 mph. That should make the play calling even more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Taking an under with FIU isn't necessarily a comfortable experience, but I think this one is set a little too high given the circumstances.

This is a neutral site game being played in the Cayman Islands. Neutral site games have trended under in the long run, and early tipoff times (11 am eastern here) have trended stronger to the under than the rest of the neutral site games. 

FIU does play quickly, but they don't shoot the ball well. FIU was 213th in offensive efficiency last year and they are 233rd so far this year. 

Loyola Marymount is a slightly slower than average paced team. Loyola has had some high games this year because opponents have been shooting lights out from 3. Loyola's 3 point defense the last few years has been much better than they've started this year. FIU has been very weak from 3 point range the last few years too.

Early start with a really high total. I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company, but their defense has actually been their stronger unit this year. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Chiefs have played nine games this year, and six of the nine have stayed under this total. Their highest final total has been 51 points. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are just 11th in the NFL in yards per play this year. They haven't been as explosive on offense this year as expected. The Eagles defense should be able to get pressure against a mediocre KC offensive line.

The weather here could play a role. The forecast is calling for winds of 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph during this game. There is also a chance of showers. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Commerce Lions are 336th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Stonehill ranks 335th in that same number. 

Stonehill has given up massive points against St. Joe's, UConn, and Kentucky in their last three games. Texas A&M Commerce and their weak offense are unlikely to put up a big number. Stonehill's recent games being so high against very good fast paced teams has inflated this number too much in my opinion. Stonehill played one slower paced team (Army) and it was 57-44 in that game.

Texas A&M Commerce is 307th in average possession length, so they are looking to slow the game down. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals should be a different offense now that Kyler Murray is back. We saw it already last week with Arizona putting up 5.9 YPP and 25 points against a pretty good Atlanta Falcons defense. Murray just gives them far more big play ability than anyone else they had all season. Conner being back is very helpful as well.

C.J. Stroud has been amazing in his rookie season. Stroud has done a remarkable job of hitting a bunch of explosive plays while still not turning the ball over much. He is playing like a top 8 or 10 quarterback already. 

These are both below average defenses. They aren't very good in the secondary, and I think that will be exploited here. 

This is on a fast track in the dome which is helpful.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 332nd in the nation in tempo. Marty Simmons has his teams wanting to slow the pace down year after year. They have to slow things down a ton right now because they just don't have any go to scorers. Eastern Illinois struggled to a 48-46 win over Coppin State yesterday.

Miami Ohio is a medium paced team that has shot the ball better than expected so far this year. The Redhawks do slow the pace when they have the lead and they are clear favorites here.

I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars rank 329th in the country in tempo. The SIU Edwardsville Cougars rank 353rd in the nation in tempo. This game should be played almost entirely in the halfcourt. 

SIU Edwardsville has gradually gotten better on defense every year in the last three seasons. This team is focused on slowing the game down and winning with defense. They were 129th, 102nd, and now 73rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Three of their four games against Division I teams this year have finished 118 points or lower.

South Alabama has played multiple teams that want track meets which has made their games higher scoring. This is the slowest opponent they have played yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Utah Valley has a new coach this year in Todd Phillips. They have slowed their pace quite a bit so far this year. The Wolverines are 228th in effective field goal percentage offense and 30th in defense. 

Southern Miss is a medium paced team. The Golden Eagles do take a lot of bad mid range jumpers though. Southern Miss only put up 64 points on William Carey in a fast paced game. They scored 54 against Akron.

This is an early season neutral site game and those have been good to under bettors in the long haul.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats have been very consistent at slowing the pace of the game down both last year and so far this season. Weber State is 357th in the country in average possession length so far this year. Yale is 335th in average possession length. 

This game is played on a neutral floor in Canada. If these two teams keep playing at their preferred pace, it will take either very high shooting percentages or a ref show to send this one past the posted total.

Both teams were in the top 11 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage last year. I expect second chances to be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NC State Wolfpack have gone full out stall mode on offense of late. In their last three games they are the second slowest paced team in the country. NC State is a run heavy offense that doesn't have much explosiveness at all. NC State is 114th in explosiveness in the country.

The VA Tech defense has given up some big plays, but on a down to down basis they have been good. I don't think NC State is the type of team who can break those big gainers. VA Tech's defense is 23rd in the country in havoc. They are 24th in success rate allowed. 

VA Tech's offense has been much better with Kyron Drones at quarterback. They are running about 60% of the time on offense. NC State's defense has been excellent of late. The Wolfpack are 17th defensive line yards and 22nd in rushing play success rate allowed. 

VA Tech ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo in the last three games alone. Two running teams with very slow paced offenses.

NC State's last four games have finished: 24-3, 24-17, 20-6, and 26-6. Four of their last six games have finished with a total of 32 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*This line has moved since I selected it early this week. I would still take this as long as it is at or above the key number of 41. Thanks and good luck.* 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles are nothing like last year's team. They were ultra fast paced last year and got into some very high scoring games. Coppin State finished last season 19th in overall tempo in the country. They are 257th so far this season. 

Coppin State is also very bad on offense. The Eagles are dead last in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have only topped 55 points one time this season. They have been held to 49 points or fewer in three of their five contests. 

Eastern Illinois plays at a slow pace coached by Marty Simmons. They are 339th in average possession length. The Panthers are 338th in offensive efficiency. This is a team that is involved in a lot of very low scoring contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers had a rare very poor showing on offense last week. Navy slowed that game down and UAB didn't play to their potential on offense. UAB overall for the season though is 25th in success rate on offense and the Blazers have scored 35 points or more four times. On the other side, UAB has allowed 41 points or more six times. UAB's tempo is 19th quickest in the country and that often turns their games into shootouts. 

Temple's offensive stats are skewed because E.J. Warner missed time and the Owls offense could do nothing in his absence. With Warner in the fold, Temple's offense is very good throwing the football. The Owls are 17th in tempo in the country. Temple's defense is 110th in YPP allowed in the country. They are especially terrible against the pass. Jacob Zeno is a good quarterback for UAB and he should have success. Temple has allowed 36 points or more six times this year.

I see a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines didn't throw a single pass in the second half against Penn State. Michigan just edged their way down the field and controlled things with the running game. 

One major reason Michigan running the football so much is important to a total is the Wolverines ranks 132nd (or second slowest) in tempo in the country. They move very methodically. Michigan is 103rd in the country in explosiveness. I have little doubt they'll move the ball well against Maryland, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Maryland is 13th in the country in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays very often.

The Michigan defense is 3rd in the country in success rate allowed. They are second in opposing QBR allowed. Michigan is 19th in YPC allowed, but Maryland is only 93rd in the nation in YPC.

Michigan has Ohio State next week and the Wolverines would be well suited to get a lead and get out of here with a win playing conservatively.

The weather here is a plus too. The blend of four forecasts calls for 16 mph winds with gusts of about 28 mph here. That tends to make teams both more conservative and helps the defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have shot 31 and 32% from three point range in the last two seasons. They are shooting 43.9% from long range so far this year. This will regress to the mean over time. South Carolina is 312th in overall tempo. This is a team that should play quite a few lower scoring games this year once their shooting numbers dip back down.

DePaul was 67th fastest in tempo last year in the country. They have dialed back the pace quite a bit this year. The Blue Demons are 251st on the season so far. 

This is an early season neutral court game in the Bahamas. These can have tricky shooting backdrops and have trended toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Stay Play Under* Coppin State has a new coach and a completely different style of play this year. They were 19th in overall tempo last year. They are sitting at 234th in overall tempo this season so far. Coppin State is 362nd (last) in the country in offensive efficiency.

Miami are an average or slightly slower team in terms of tempo. The Redhawks are terrible on the offensive glass, which helps mitigate Coppin State's biggest weakness on defense (defensive rebounding). 

I have this number several points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans are improving a lot on defense under Tim Miles. They were 79th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. So far this year, they are 39th. They also rank 315th in average possession length. They aren't in any hurry. 

Abilene Christian always has a good aggressive defense that forces a lot of turnovers. The one negative about their defense is they do foul too much. Abilene Christian's offense settles for a lot of poor jump shots.

This game is being played in the Virgin Islands at a gym where the under has done well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The William & Mary Tribe were 352nd and 284th in offensive efficiency in the last two years. They have shot the ball well in their first couple games, but this team is unlikely to be able to keep this up. They haven't played good defenses, and they have played teams who are happy to run. 

Omaha has shown they want to slow the game down even though they have been losing. The Mavericks don't want to get into a track meet here. They are 262nd in average possession length. 

This is played on a neutral court. Both teams are shooting a lot of long distance jumpers. If they are all falling this will go over, but neutral court unders early in the season have done well in the long run. The long jumpers are on average tougher to hit in a neutral site situation.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense has really improved a lot of late with Joe Burrow getting healthy and the unit coming into its own. The Bengals are averaging 26.6 points per game in their last five games. The early season poor results from the offense means little at this point.

On the other side though, the Bengals defense is looking far worse than it did a year ago. Cincinnati is now second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Texans offense torched them on Sunday for 544 yards. This defense has been a problem spot this year for Cincinnati. 

Baltimore is averaging 32.2 points per game in their last five games. They have scored 31 points or more in four straight contests. 

The Ravens defense is very good, but Burrow and the Bengals have scored 24, 24, and 27 points on them in the last three head to head meetings. 

The total earlier this year was 45.5 and it finished 27-24. Since then both offenses have improved quite a bit.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved up some since early in the week, but I still rate this 4 star up to 47 and a 3 star play above that. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Presbyterian Blue Hose are 23rd in average possession length so far this season. Presbyterian has sped up significantly from a year ago. They were #285 last season. Presbyterian played two teams who aren't very  fast paced in their games too so I don't think it was a fluke. 

Presbyterian is 2-0 and it is largely because no one can make a shot against them. Opponents are shooting 21.8% from 3 point range and 41% from two point range this season. Presbyterian has been awful at defending the 3 point line in the last few seasons. In fact, they were bottom 15 in the entire country in both of the last two seasons. They were also bottom half of the country in 2 point defense. 

North Florida is excellent from 3 point range. The Ospreys have been so good from 3 that they have been called "The Birds of Trey" by some. They shoot a bunch of long range jumpers, and I think they'll make their fair share in this one. 

North Florida was 346th in defensive efficiency last year. They struggle badly on the defensive boards and offensive rebounding is a strength of Presbyterian.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Eastern Illinois and Illinois State played last year and the final was 54-49. I certainly don't expect it to be that low this time, but I think this total is quite a bit too high. 

Eastern Illinois has a bottom ten offense in the country. Marty Simmons' team just doesn't have any go to scorers. They also play at a far below average tempo. I'm not going to say their defense is good, but it is definitely better than it looks through two games. Their two opponents have been Illinois and Loyola Chicago. Both of those teams are very quick and are good offensively. 

Illinois State lost a 80-71 game played to 77 possessions against St. Louis. St. Louis is all about running. The RedBirds of Illinois State were 300th in tempo last year, and I think KenPom and others are projecting the pace too quick in this game at 72 possessions. 

Last year's game was 62 possessions. I'll try to take advantage of these two playing fast paced teams and inflating the total here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are playing at a much faster tempo this year under a new coach. Coach Newman has his team getting out in transition as often as possible. Northridge led for much of the game against Stanford and scored 79 points. They then put up 76 at Idaho. They will keep pushing the pace here.

Chicago State hasn't played a team in the top 125 in the nation in tempo so far this year. Northridge is 27th so this is a big tempo jump. I think the Chicago State defense will be bottom 30 or 40 in the country this year. Chicago State has a history of committing a lot of fouls. Northridge is attacking the basket and not settling for long range jumpers.

I think the pace will be enough here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles were beaten down by both Alabama and Purdue. That's more than understandable. A bunch of teams are going to get crushed by those two top teams. Morehead State's defensive numbers look bad right now, but I think they'll be very solid against the mid-major teams again this year. Morehead State historically does a great job on the defensive glass, and they don't foul very often either. 

Morehead State is 338th in average possession length. The Eagles are very good at controlling the pace. Mercer is also a slow paced team. The Bears are 295th in average possession length. 

Mercer lost 71-64 to Clark Atlanta (obviously not a Division One team) in their first game and beat Chicago State 66-61 in game two. Mercer is good defensively, but on offense they have struggled to find an identity.

Last year's game between these two was played to just 60 possessions. I think we see another slow one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Temple Owls should be a better offense under Coach Adam Fisher this year. Temple is going to put up more shots from long range and Fisher thinks they have the guys to shoot the ball pretty well. Temple's pace is about 5 possessions per game quicker than it was a year ago at this time. The two offenses Temple has faced are among the very worst in the country. Maryland Eastern Shore and Navy are bottom 25 offenses in the country. Temple's defense will get a bigger test here.

Drexel does a good job not turning the ball over and the Dragons are just mediocre on the defensive end. Temple has a height disadvantage and Drexel should score in the paint here.

This number has dropped to the point where I have to side with the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early season matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the St. John's Red Storm. 

St. John's made a massive coaching hire in the offseason by bringing in Rick Pitino. Pitino does prefer to play quickly, but St. John's was first in tempo in the entire country last year. They certainly won't play as fast as a year ago. St. John's did score 90 points against Stony Brook in game one, but their exhibition games were pretty low scoring. They beat Rutgers 89-78 in double OT. They lost to Pace College (several guys were out in that game).

Michigan has played two teams who are really bad defensively and like to play fast. The Wolverines high scoring games in the first two contests have pushed this total upward too much. I do think Michigan can be better defensively than they were a year ago.

Madison Square Garden is the venue for this contest and it is a good under arena. Yes, I know St. John's is accustomed to playing here, but the under has hit in 64.5% of St. John's games at MSG in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a great defensive team under Joe Gallo. The zone press they use is actually to slow the game down. They are really good at controlling the style of play. Merrimack takes a lot of poor shots on offense, and if they don't get a bunch of steals and quick scores it can be very tough for them to score in the halfcourt. 

Maine was 259th in tempo last year. The Black Bears do force quite a few turnovers, but they aren't good at turning them into transition points.

These two teams played a couple years ago and it was a 49-47 final. I'm not projecting this one to be that low, but I like it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets have played a string of very high scoring teams in a row of late. The Hornets have taken on the Pacers, Mavericks, and then the Wizards twice in a row in their last four games. They now take on the New York Knicks who play a completely different style of basketball. 

New York is bottom five in the NBA in tempo. The Knicks are also top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Knicks aren't likely to get intro a track meet with the Hornets here.

This is an extra early tipoff at Madison Square Garden. These Sunday early tip times have been good to under bettors in the long run in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins saw Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore both get banged up in their loss to Arizona last Saturday. Neither of them practiced on Monday. Ethan Garbers wasn't even at the practice and Moore watched practice without his helmet on. That leaves UCLA thin at QB and would make them more predictable on offense.

Trenton Bourguet was injured very early in the Arizona State blowout loss to Utah. Because of other injuries, Arizona State was down to Jacob Conover (4th string QB) and he went 5/22 and was a disaster against Utah last week. Conover might be the man again Saturday. Coach Dillingham said if the game were today Bourguet wouldn't be able to play. 

The UCLA defense has been fantastic all year. Arizona State's defense has been better than expected. After a poor effort last week, I think the Sun Devils defense will at least play better here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The pace will help a lot here. Wash State 31st in tempo this year. Cal is 11th. Lots of pace and plenty of possessions here.

The Cal defense is very bad. There are 123rd at PFF in defensive grade. They are also 130th in passing play success rate allowed. We know Washington St will throw it a bunch. 60% of their plays are a pass. Cam Ward is hot and cold, but I like his chances of having a good game against this secondary. Cal’s Dline 122nd in havoc rate. Wash State OLine poor in pass blocking, but they won’t get dominated here like they are some games.

Cal’s strength on offense is clearly in the running game. Ott is a tremendous runner and they have some depth behind him and a fairly mobile QB. Wash St 100th in rush play success rate allowed. Wash State 11th in Pac 12 in YPC allowed. I think Cal gets the ground game going here.

Washington State has had a couple lower scoring games of late which has kept this number down, but I think this sets up as a track meet type game with the offenses having a bunch of success.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing much different under new offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton than they did under Dan Enos. That's a good thing for the team and for the over. Their offense was terrible and the play calling was bad earlier this year. Arkansas played nearly two seconds per play quicker last week than they did on average the rest of the season. 

Arkansas also has Rocket Sanders back and Coach Pittman said he's healthier coming into this game than he was going into last weekend. Sanders had his best game of the year last week against Florida. He makes this offense much better when he is at least pretty healthy. 

Auburn's running game should have some success against a mediocre Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks just allowed 36 points against Florida. Auburn's passing attack has been slightly better of late to give them some balance.

I think this number makes sense for the season as a whole, but it is too low based on the changes for Arkansas. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather is key in this one. Right now the National Weather service says 85% chance of rain during this one. Sustained winds of about 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. If that comes to fruition that absolutely is enough to make a big impact on the game.

6 of Utah’s 9 games have finished with 41 points or fewer total. Whittingham knows they don’t want a shootout against this Huskies team.

Washington has played a lot of high scoring games this year, but the weather and an opponent with a weak offense and very strong defense is coming up in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have played eight games against FBS opponents. The lowest combined score has been 58 points. They have hit 70 points or higher in four of their eight games. They have only stayed in the 50's once. 

UAB's passing attack is very good with Jacob Zeno back in the fold. Zeno was 29/35 for 484 yards and 5 TD's passing last week. Navy has a passing defense that is ranked in the bottom ten in passing play success rate allowed. 

UAB's defense is atrocious against the run. They are 132nd out of 133 in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 130th in YPC allowed. We know Navy will run the football a lot, and they should have success against this UAB defensive front. 

UAB will push the pace in a big way. Both defenses are weak. This total has moved down to the point I have to fire on an over. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes made a offensive coordinator change late last week. I didn't like the move at all. Sean Lewis is a really good offensive coordinator, but the move was made to Shurmur and Lewis was demoted. Shurmur was brought in likely to run the ball more and play at a slower pace. The Colorado offensive line has been so bad that Shedeur Sanders has gotten banged up badly. He clearly isn't himself right now. 

Colorado played 2.5 seconds per play slower last week than they have for the year overall. The Buffaloes were pass heavy, but they playing from pretty far behind and they were unable to get any offense going at all until very late in the game. 

Arizona's defense is flying under the radar. The Wildcats defense is much better of late. Arizona is  25th in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to get big plays on them. They can get in the backfield often too with their talented linebackers. The Colorado OLine is going to be in trouble here.

Colorado's defense has played somewhat better of late. They have at least slowed down UCLA and Oregon State in the last couple weeks. Arizona's offense is a good one, but they are playing at a pretty slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Temple Owls offensive numbers are skewed. E.J. Warner is everything to this offense and he missed a couple games recently and they were absolutely hapless in those games. Temple is a good offense with Warner on the field though. He came back last week and was great against Navy. Now, Temple goes to take on a weaker defense in USF.

USF is 132nd in the nation in explosive plays allowed. The Bulls are 1st in the nation in tempo though. Their games have been absolutely shootouts. They lost 59-50 last week against Memphis. In USF's last six games, five of them have finished at 70 total points or higher. 

Temple had games finish at 74 and 83 points total before Warner was hurt. Temple is a fast paced team as well. 

There should be a lot of possessions and I like this one to be a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves new coach Bryan Hodgson talked all offseason about how fast they were going to play this year. They went out and proved in game one. They did the unthinkable and played a game to 81 possessions against the Wisconsin Badgers. They lost 105-76 in that one, but the fact that they got Wisconsin to play that quickly with them is impressive.

Arkansas State now takes on Bowling Green. The Falcons have a new coach in Todd Simon. Simon's teams have routinely finished in the top 50 or 60 in tempo in the country. His teams are known for attacking the hoop and playing aggressive defense. Their opponents often get to the free throw line quite a bit. 

Look for a very quick pace in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins play strong defense under Kevin Willard. This is a top 30 defense in the country. Maryland ranked 326th in the country in tempo last year. They moved at a slow pace again in their first game earlier this week. 

Davidson is a physical team that slows the pace down as well. The Wildcats were #294 in the country in tempo. Davidson isn't likely to push the issue here against a Big Ten opponent.

This game is played on a neutral site. The Cherokee Center which is 28-17 to the under. Early netural site unders have been good in the long run in CBB.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Georgia was absolutely flying up and down the floor in their season opener against Oregon. That game played to a blistering pace of 83 possessions. Georgia couldn't hit a shot from the floor or the FT line (17/30 from the charity stripe), but I expect their shooting numbers to be better against a weak Wake Forest defense. 

Wake Forest has pushed the pace a lot the last couple seasons. The Demon Deacons put up 101 points in a win over Elon in game one. It was concerning to allow 1.03 points per possession to a bad Elon offense in that one though.

I think this one goes to 76 possessions or so and that means even mediocre shooting should put this over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames and Charlotte 49ers meet late this afternoon in Charlotte at a "neutral" court. This is at the Spectrum Center which has not been an under venue at all.

The money has come in on the under here. I do in general like neutral site unders, but this isn't a bad shooting backdrop and this number has moved too much. 

Charlotte has a new coach in Aaron Fearne. He said in the preseason they were focusing heavily on pushing the pace more this  year (they were very slow a year ago) and getting a lot more second chance points. By crashing the offensive boards more it is a clear positive for the over in that it both  creates second chance points for them and makes them have a worse transition defense.

Liberty is a good team who has several shooters. The Flames can spread you out and move the ball around very well. 

The change in style isn't accounted for here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors have a new coach this year and they are going to play with extreme tempo. The Matadors are 12th in the country in tempo so far this year. The fast pace worked too. They were actually up 76-72 with 4 minutes left against Stanford before falling apart and losing 88-79. That was a nice showing for this Big West team against a Pac 12 big school.

Idaho was beaten 84-59 by Washington State in their first game. The Vandals have been atrocious on defense the last few years, and I expect more of that this season. Washington State plays very slowly so I believe the Idaho tempo stats are a bit skewed right now. Alex Pribble is their new coach, and Pribble said he wanted to pick up the tempo this year. Here is a great chance for them to run with CS Northridge.

Both of these teams have a penchant for fouling a lot so a bunch of free throws wouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are going to play nothing like they did a year ago. Northridge has a new coach in Andy Newman. Newman has preached a faster pace all through the offseason. He wants this team to play a fun brand of basketball and be high octane. They probably won't be very good at first, but I expect them to play very quickly.

The Stanford offense will have some big edges at multiple spots on the floor here. Stanford is a veteran team this year and they have multiple scorers. Spencer Jones will be a matchup problem for the Matadors. 

Stanford's point guards are better this year and I expect them to get to the hoop here.

The pace should be quick.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks were 74th in the nation in tempo last year. This team has been committed to playing quickly under Coach Lange the whole way. This team has good spacing and has been implementing a Rim and 3 strategy on offense. They return several good backcourt players who should be pretty reliable scorers.

Lafayette has a new coach and an entirely different strategy this year. This team ranked 349th in tempo last year. Their new coach came from a smaller school and he was well known for faster tempo and efficient offenses. He even said before the season that they will play faster and be better on offense. Surprisingly, the coach even said he expects them to be worse on defense. 

Lafayette playing completely differently is important to this handicap. I expect a pretty fast pace. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Carolina hosted USC Upstate last year and the final was 68-53 with a very slow pace of 59. 

South Carolina plays very slowly under Lamont Paris. It makes sense because he was under Bo Ryan before becoming a head coach. Paris' teams are good at controlling the pace and winning with a lack of turnovers and with solid defense.

USC Upstate lost their best scorer from a year ago. USC Upstate developed a solid defense last year. The only thing they do too much is foul with their aggressiveness. South Carolina was bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line.

I think this one is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are an over team. Gardner Minshew is a gunslinger. He can move the team up and down the field, but he can also give the other team a pick six with his questionable decision making at times. The Colts defense is bottom five in the NFL. Indianapolis has been playing quicker of late as well.

The Colts last three games have finished 37-20, 39-38, and 38-27. The last two of those were against the Browns and Saints. Both of those teams have suspect offenses and great defenses. If you are able to get very high scoring games against them, I have to look toward the over in your games when they are set this low.

Carolina hasn't been a good offense,  but I think Bryce Young and company can have some success offensively against a weak secondary and a subpar pass rush in Indianapolis. The Panthers have had 3 of their last 5 games get over 60 points total, so they are capable of being in shootouts. 

The weather looks good for this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders have had one strength on defense in the last couple years- they had a good pass rush because of a strong defensive line. They traded away that big strength. Chase Young and Montez Sweat both were traded away this week. Washington has been a bottom five defense in the NFL in yards per play even before these trades, and now they are worse.

The New England Patriots have been slowed by quite a few injuries on the defensive side of the football this year. They are still a decent defense, but they are far from the dominant defense we've seen in past seasons. 

Washington's Sam Howell is willing to take chances and I think he can hit on some deep passes against the Patriots secondary. The Patriots offense should look much better without a pass rush on them.

This total is set very low for a game involving a very weak defense and no weather issues. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia offense is better than people realize. Georgia's Carson Beck is playing good football right now. Even without Brock Bowers, Georgia has solid weapons in the passing game. Georgia put up 486 yards and 7.4 yards per play against Florida last week. The Bulldogs are capable of big things on offense.

Missouri's offense has been much improved this year. The play caller here is doing a good job taking advantage of Missouri having one of the best WR rooms in the country this year. Brady Cook has been excellent and Burden and company are a tough cover for anyone. 

Georgia's defense is clearly very good, but what good offense have they faced this year? This is one of the weakest opposing offenses schedules you could find. Missouri will be the best offense they have seen this year. 

The Missouri defense allowed 21 points to Vandy. They gave up 27 points to Kansas State. LSU put up 8.1 yards per play and 49 points on them. The Tigers defense is worse than they were a year ago.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers won 45-42 over North Texas last weekend. Memphis gained 600 yards of total offense, but they allowed 591 total yards. Both teams averaged better than 8 yards per play. 

Memphis has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. They are solid offensively and are pretty explosive. South Florida has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season as well. What about the defenses? Both defenses have given up loads of explosive plays this year. USF is 130th in explosiveness allowed (out of 133 teams).

USF is second in the nation in tempo. The Bulls are absolutely flying on offense. Alex Golesh and this group want to turn every game into a track meet. USF has seen four of their last five games finish with 70 combined points or more. USF has allowed 56 points twice in their last three games. 

Memphis is allowing 5.47 yards per carry in AAC play. USF is 123rd in yards per play allowed on the season.

The pace here will be very quick and I like this one to be high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats are a run heavy offense. They are running the ball on 61% of their offensive plays in Big 12 play. Texas is first in the Big 12 in run defense, and the Longhorns big defensive front should slow down Kansas State much better than the Wildcats recent foes have. 

Kansas State's secondary was weak early in the season, but they have been amazing of late. In their last two games, Kansas State allowed 3 points against TCU and 0 points against Houston. 

Texas is without Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Maalik Murphy wasn't asked to do very much last week against BYU. I think Ewers will be missed especially because of his ability to throw the ball deep. 

Kansas State likely wants to run the ball and play slowly here. Both teams have looked excellent on defense lately. I expect a tight hard fought battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies meet tonight. Dallas has had two high scoring games this year so far, but the Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Marcus Smart is a great defensive player, but his efficiency numbers on offense aren't likely to be very good especially with the Grizzlies shorthanded right now.

With Smart and Jackson the Grizzlies have two of the very best defensive players in the league. I do think they can matchup better defensively with Dallas than most teams. 

The Mavericks have played fast so far this season, but I think that is at least partially because of who they have played against in those two games. 

Divisional unders early in the season have been great in the past decade.

The referees in this one are a big plus for lower scoring. Two of the three refs here have a large sample size and are 54.4% and 55.7% to the under in their career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NFL has had a lot of low scoring games this year. The under has been cashing at a really high rate. That usually tends to regress at least somewhat toward the mean after extremes. This game is being played on the fast track in Dallas. Both of these quarterbacks have shown to be very good when in these conditions.

The Rams offense is very good now with two great receivers on the outside. Diggs being out for Dallas definitely hurts them against this kind of passing attack. 

The Cowboys offense underachieved the last couple games before their bye week. They put a lot of time and focus into turning things around this week. I expect a sharper performance from their offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The new clock rules have really made a difference in the higher total games. There is only so much time to score with the clock moving even after first downs. There will certainly still be some very high scoring games, but they have become more rare. 

Totals of 62 points or higher are 34-20 to the under this season.

Colorado has allowed 35 sacks. This Buffaloes offensive line is going to be beaten badly here. PFF rates the UCLA pass rush the e highest of anny in the country. Sanders is going to be under a lot of heat here. Colorado does play quickly but they aren’t always efficient.

The Colorado run defense isn't good, but it has been less bad in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.94 YPC in Pac 12 play.

Only one of UCLA’s games against FBS competition has finished higher than 45 points.

Ethan Garbers is a more conservative quarterback and I think that could lead to less pick sixes and short fields for the opposition which Moore had done all too often.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has been atrocious this year. They have given up 126 plays of 10 yards or more on the season thus far. In the SEC, they are allowing 6.85 yards per play. Vanderbilt gives up big plays in bunches, and Ole Miss is the definition of a big play offense.

Ole Miss has 52 plays of 20 yards or more already this season (3rd best in the country). The Rebels can do it through the air or on the ground. I don't think they'll get to 4th down very often in this game at all. 

Vanderbilt's offense isn't great, but through the air they have some explosiveness. That is a good fit here since Ole Miss has been weakest in the secondary. Ole Miss is 84th in total QBR allowed. They are 90th in pass play success rate allowed.

The two teams are 7th and 14th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. 

These two met last year and Ole Miss won 52-28. Ole Miss had 9.9 yards per play. Vanderbilt's defense is worse this year. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are nothing like they were last year. Ohio is excellent defensively this year. They are bottom 10 in the country in tempo. The Bobcats are happy to win low scoring games with strong defense this season. 6 of Ohio’s 8 games have finished with a combined total of 37 points or fewer.

The Miami OH defense has been tremendous especially in MAC play. They are allowing an average of 11.25 points per games in the MAC. Salopek is a star linebacker that leads the way for them.

Miami OH will be without star quarterback Brett Gabbert who had season ending surgery after an injury in the second half of the Toledo game. Aveon Smith is a decent backup, but there is a significant drop off from Gabbert to Smith. Smith is a runner first and he makes the Miami OH offense much more predictable. Gabbert’s big play ability in the passing game is no longer there.

Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. There shouldn't be many big plays here. It's a very low total, but I think it's low for a good reason.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have shown us their game plan pretty clearly at this point. Charlotte wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football and control the time of possession. Charlotte is using 31 seconds between plays in their conference games. The 49ers rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in the country. 

Charlotte is 126th in the nation in rushing play success rate, but they are running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays in the conference. Charlotte's defense is much improved under Biff Poggi who is a defensive minded coach. The 49ers are 32nd in success rate allowed. They are giving up just 4.52 yards per play in conference action so far.

Florida Atlantic has been a big disappointment on offense so far this year. The Owls have been held to 187 points or fewer in four of their seven games. They gained just 2.9 yards per play against a mediocre UTSA defense last week. 

Charlotte has seen 4 of their 7 games (including 3 of their last 4) this year finish with a combined total of 29 points or fewer. This is the type of game Charlotte wants to play with their lack of big playmakers on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies square off in a nice divisional contest in their first game of the new season for both teams. 

Early in the NBA season the under has typically cashed a bit more frequently than the over in the past 20 years. The angle is much stronger when it is a divisional game. The higher the posted total the stronger the angle has been. 

This is a high total because games between these two are typically pretty fast in pace. Both of these teams were top 6 in defensive efficiency last year. 

Marcus Smart is a good add for the Grizzlies team. Without Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are without their offensive star. Smart is an excellent defender though. Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders in the NBA.

Herb Jones is a strong defender for the Pelicans. The Pelicans slowed their pace down last year on the whole to a league average. 

Take the under here.