*3 Star Play Under* Florida Gulf Coast is no longer the fast paced dunk city version from several years ago. This team doesn't have enough offensive firepower so they have drastically slowed down their pace of play. Florida Gulf Coast has stayed under this low total in 9 of their last 10 games against Division I opponents. 

Lipscomb has played a lot of teams who like to run so far this year, but Florida Gulf Coast will do their best to keep this game in the halfcourt. 

I had this game lined in the upper 120's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats have decided to play at a much slower tempo this year. Many teams in the Big Sky will try to push the pace on Weber State, but Northern Arizona is happy to play at a slow tempo. Northern Arizona is 321st in average possession length this year. Weber State is 288th in average possession length this year. 

Both Weber State and Northern Arizona have faced a very tough slate of offenses so far this year. These defenses are far from strong, but they aren't as bad as they look on the stat sheet right now.

Jerrick Harding is questionable with a sprained ankle here, and Harding is the key guy for Weber State on offense. I like this play even if he plays, but it has more value if he sits. Kham Davis who averages 8.8 points per game is out for this game also.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are consistently the same type of team. Georgia Tech struggles on offense, but they play really hard on the defensive end for Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets are 252nd in offensive efficiency, but they are 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

North Carolina was playing somewhat slower this year to begin with, but now that they have serious injury problems this team is way different than it has been in previous seasons. The Tar Heels don't have their star in Cole Anthony. They also lost Anthony Harris to a torn ACL.

North Carolina is 314th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tar Heels are 96th in the same defensive category.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* James Madison has committed to playing much faster this year. The Dukes are 12th in the country in average length of possession, so they are definitely flying up and down the floor.

College of Charleston has the best player in the conference in Grant Riller. Charleston faced a bunch of very good defenses in the non-conference slate, and their offensive numbers are going to get a lot better in the CAA against very weak defenses like James Madison. The Dukes have faced the 7th easiest offenses out of 353 teams in the country. That changes here.

The tempo should be quick and I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Arkansas Bears got DeAndre Jones back last game and he poured in 21 points. Jones is arguably their most important offensive player. Central Arkansas ranks 6th in the nation in overall tempo, and Jones is a guy who helps them push that pace.

McNeese State is 103rd in overall tempo. McNeese State is 18th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 339th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Both of these teams rank in the top five in the country in free throws attempted/field goal attempted. They should make a living at the line here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders offense ranks 89th in the country in offensive efficiency. They have only faced the 325th toughest (out of 353) slate of defenses as well according to KenPom. This Red Raiders offense will go through some long scoring droughts against really good defenses.

Texas Tech is once again excellent on defense. Chris Beard's teams are always tremendous on the defensive end.

Oklahoma State is 22nd in defensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cowboys use a zone defense part of the time, and Texas Tech's offense has really struggled against zone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IUPUI Jaguars defense has become a major weakness. IUPUI has allowed 95, 83, and 82 points in their last three games. All three of those games were against teams who have had significant trouble scoring this year. IUPUI has allowed 80 points or more in 9 of their 13 games against Division I opponents this year.

Milwaukee is playing faster this year than in recent years. The Panthers were 304th in average possession length two years ago. They were 212th last year. They are 120th this year. They are getting quicker by the year, and the Panthers are playing an IUPUI team that wants to run under their new coach.

Milwaukee should be able to generate some quick points off turnovers here, but they will also commit quite a few fouls.

I had this game lined at 148.5.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags have been so consistent at keeping games low scoring this year. Some teams can have occasional extremely low scoring games, but it is rare to see a team that has been low scoring every single game. Fairfield has had 11 games so far this year. How many of those games have gone over this posted total? One! 

Fairfield ranks 350th in average possession length (4th slowest). They are significantly better on defense than offense under new coach Jay Young as well.

Niagara has played four games that have stayed under this total. Niagara has a very weak defense, but Fairfield isn't likely to capitalize on Niagara's inability to grab defensive rebounds nearly as well as most of their other opponents.

This projects as a very slow paced game and unless the shooting numbers are higher than average this one should stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats played in 7 games this year that reached at least 61 points. Ohio is a big play offense, and the Bobcats defense is no longer the strength it was a few years ago. Ohio is 87th in yards per play allowed this year, and that was playing an extremely easy schedule. The MAC has many very bad offensive teams.

Nevada has gotten a bit healthier in the last few weeks. Their offense should be able to break some big plays against Ohio. The Wolf Pack passing attack improved in the last couple weeks with Carson Strong airing it out quite a bit.

Ohio has a star quarterback in Nathan Rourke. The Bobcats averaged 6.7 yards per play (11th in the nation) this year. It would be pretty surprising if Nevada can do much of anything to slow down Ohio's offense. Nevada is 106th in opponent QBR and Rourke should make this Nevada secondary look bad.

The weather looks good for this one and this fits a system of two teams with less than 65% wins straight up going 59% over the posted total in the last 15 years in bowl season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Todd Golden took over as a first year head coach at San Francisco this year. Golden has this San Francisco team pushing the pace much more than Kyle Smith did a year ago. They are playing 5.5 possessions per game faster. Golden worked as an assistant under Bruce Pearl a few years ago before assisting at San Francisco. 

San Francisco was 45th in offensive efficiency last year. They are up to 29th this year. The Dons though were 125th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 205th so far this year. The Dons are allowing opponents to shoot 39.1% from 3 point range so far this year. 

St. Mary's is number one in the country at 42.7% from 3 point range. The Gaels will get open looks here, and they'll likely knock them down. They have 4 guys on their team shooting better than 40% from 3 point range. 

The Gaels are playing a touch quicker than a year ago, and their defense has been worse than last year as well. 

Neither one of these defenses has played a tough slate of offenses so far this year. They both face huge tests here.

The two games between these two last year were 148 and 166 points. With a quicker tempo and more efficient offenses, I like the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers rank sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. Purdue has a good defensive big man in the middle in Haarms. The Boilermakers also have a lot of athleticism on the perimeter. This is a team that does a great job contesting all shots.

Matt Painter's team has slowed the pace a lot from last year. Purdue was 268th in tempo (out of 353) last year. They are all the way down at #340 this year. The Boilermakers have played nine games under this total so far this year. Their two Big Ten games finished at 102 and 126 points. 

Minnesota has been back and forth this year. The Golden Gophers have been tremendous on offense in their last couple games, but that is what has given us value on the under. This number has been bet up by 5 points. That is an overreaction. Minnesota is unlikely to be able to keep shooting the way they have been of late, especially on the road against arguably the best defense they have faced so far this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes completely changed their offense in the postseason. Many coaches talk about wanting to run the floor, but Coach Rowe has been seriously committed to changing from a halfcourt style offense to a team who gets out in transition and shoots a lot of long range jumpers.

James Madison is 9th in the nation in average possession length. The Dukes are averaging 76 possessions per game. Their offense has been solid, but their defense has been dreadful. How bad? James Madison is 317th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. They have faced the 10th easiest slate of offenses (out of 353). 

UNC Wilmington likes to play quickly. The Seahawks have played a bunch of opponents who walk it up the court this year. That definitely won't be the case here. Wilmington has ranked in the bottom 15 teams in the nation in defending the 3 point line in the last two seasons. They'll give James Madison open looks from long range.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans have a very strong defense. Greensboro has the best defense in the SoCon, and it isn't even close. Greensboro's opponents are averaging just 0.917 points per possession. The Spartans are less efficient on offense this year after Alonso and Troy graduated at the end of last season. They are even better on defense this year than they were a year ago though.

UNC Greensboro is the far better team in this matchup, and Greensboro has slowed their pace down dramatically so far this year. They ranked 77th in quickest average possession length last year. They are only 263rd so far this year. 

Mercer started the season trying to play very quickly, but it didn't work well. The Bears have recently played at a much slower pace. I think they'll be happy to play in the halfcourt with UNC Greensboro. I think Mercer will have a lot of turnovers here. They have committed a lot of careless turnovers this year, and UNC Greensboro has been great at forcing turnovers so far this year. 

Five of UNC Greensboro's last six games against Division I opponents have finished at 126 points or less.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Michigan Wolverines offense got quite a bit better late in the season. During the Penn State game it seemed something finally clicked for Shea Patterson and this group. The new faster paced offense is better than their previous pro style slow paced offense. 

The Alabama defense isn't what it has been in previous seasons. The Crimson Tide allowed 48 points against Auburn. They also allowed 23 to South Carolina and 31 to Ole Miss. 

Alabama's offense might be without Tua, but they still have all kinds of playmakers. The Alabama wide receivers will be the best group of receivers Michigan has seen all year. The Crimson Tide excel in getting big plays. 

While the Michigan defense is good, they were moved on easily by the best teams they played this year. Wisconsin rolled to 35 points and Ohio State racked up 56 points. 

Conditions look good here so weather shouldn't be a factor. Look for both teams to get to the end zone pretty often in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Liberty bowl on Tuesday.

Navy looked great in their final regular season game against Army. This Midshipmen team is much improved in every way compared to a year ago. What is most improved? The Navy defense. Navy ranks 14th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They drastically cut down on the explosive plays they gave up.

Kansas State's Chris Klieman saw the triple option a lot in his time in FCS football with North Dakota State. I would expect his coaching staff to do a good preparing his defense for the tough task of slowing down Navy. Navy will get their yards, but I don't think it will come all that easily. 

Kansas State had only 48 plays of 20 yards or more (104th in the nation). That was playing against a bunch of bad defenses in the Big 12. The Wildcats are not a big play offense. 

Kansas State ranks 127th in pace of play and Navy ranks 117th. Navy runs the ball 88% of the time on offense and Kansas State runs it on 64% of their plays. A lot of moving clock here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their pace throughout the course of the season. Philadelphia is 24th in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. Indiana doesn't play very quickly either. The Pacers rank 20th in tempo for the year overall.

The Pacers have consistently been an under team when playing against quality opponents. That has been the case again so far this year. Indiana's games are 17-7 to the under in their last 24 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

The 76ers are averaging 1.159 points per possession in their last five games. For the year overall, this team is barely better than mediocre. I think their offensive production likely regress back toward the mean.

This is a New Year's Eve contest that tips very early in the day. These early starts are a positive for the under since they are outside the normal for these players.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The College of Charleston defense was dominating a few years ago, but it is now worse than an average defense. Charleston is especially weak down low. Synergy Sports numbers show this is a team who ranks in the bottom 1/3 of the country in low post defense. Delaware has a quality forward in Justyn Mutts who should take advantage of that defense.

Delaware is 19th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Blue Hens picked up a huge transfer in Nate Darling and he is shooting 42% from 3 point range. This is a balanced offense for Delaware.

Delaware is a bottom 100 defensive team in the country. The Blue Hens aren't likely to have any answer for Grant Riller and this quality Charleston offense. 

I see both teams getting a lot of open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Drexel Dragons have been awful defensively for three years in a row. There are 10 teams in the CAA. Drexel has finished 9th, 10th, and 9th in defensive efficiency in the last three years. So far this year Drexel's defensive numbers look a bit better, but they have played the 301st toughest slate of offenses (very easy). Their defensive numbers will get much worse.

UNC Wilmington has consistently been one of the fastest paced teams in the league. When Drexel was 9th out of 10 in defensive efficiency last year, it was UNC Wilmington sitting in 10th. The Seahawks play some terrible defense. 

Look for both teams to want to run here, and this is a pretty low total for a preferred fast pace with two poor defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have played 11 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this posted total. Fordham ranks 326th in the nation in tempo. The Rams are 325th in offensive efficiency. They are good at forcing turnovers, but are very poor at shooting the basketball.

Coppin State likes to play fast, but Fordham is generally very good at controlling the pace. Coppin State is 326th in offensive efficiency in the nation. 

Both of these teams are far better defensively than offensively. There should be a lot of wasted possessions on both ends of the floor in this game. 

I had this game lined at 129, so I'm happy to get this under in the mid 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Siena Saints have decided to push the pace under new coach Carm Marciello this year. Siena is 112th in average possession length so far this year. Holy Cross is also playing much quicker this year under Brett Nelson. They are at 144th in average possession length.

Siena has played some good defensive teams this year. Holy Cross is terrible on defense. Holy Cross ranks 345th in defensive efficiency out of 353 teams in the country. The Crusaders have allowed 80 points or more in 8 of their 12 games.

Siena gets to the line at a good rate, and Holy Cross fouls frequently. The Saints should do damage at the line.

Both coaches have had to play several teams who slow the game down and encourage their teams to push the pace. Now, they get to play another team who is speeding things up.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much better than most people realize. In the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense has put up some tremendous numbers. Kansas City's secondary is now one of the best in the NFL. I don't see the Chargers having the running game to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs either. The Chargers are without their top two offensive linemen, and that has hurt them a lot down the stretch.

Phillip Rivers has become a liability for the Chargers. I expect him to struggle against this strong KC pass rush and strong Chiefs secondary.

Kansas City's offense actually ranks among the five slowest in the NFL in the last half of the season in pace of play. The Chiefs have slowed down their tempo drastically. Kansas City is still very good offensively, but the Chargers defense has been good at limiting big plays.

The Chiefs as home favorites under Andy Reid have been great to under bettors. In fact, when Kansas City is a favorite of 8.5 points or more at home the under is 24-6-2 in the last 32 contests. The Chiefs are likely to have the lead here, and I could see them sitting on this game late.

The weather is a question mark here too. Winds of 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast for this game. That is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Northeastern Huskies are very efficient on offense. Northeastern is 4th in effective field goal percentage offense in the country (353 teams). The Huskies scored 73 and 72 points on Towson last year. Towson is a similar defense as they were a year ago.

Towson has improved on offense compared to a year ago. The Tigers were 255th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 147th so far this year. 

Northeastern was 151st in defensive efficiency a year ago. So far this year the Huskies are an ugly 258th in defensive efficiency. That is despite playing the 289th toughest slate (very weak) of offenses.

This total has been set a few points short.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved up some since it was selected Friday evening. I would rate this a 4 star play up to 134.5 and a 3 star play up to 136* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers offense is explosive. No one can deny that the Tigers have big play ability at all times. Memphis isn't accustomed to playing a defense as good as Penn State though. The Tigers played the 71st toughest strength of schedule according to Sagarin. The best defense they went up against this year was Temple. Penn State will now clearly be the best defense Memphis has gone up against. 

Penn State ranks 1st in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Memphis is accustomed to getting some big gainers on the ground, and I don't think they'll get many of them here. Brady White is a good quarterback, but he hasn't been great against the best defenses he has faced in his career. 

The Penn State offense ranks only 58th in yards per play so far this year. They have been very inconsistent this year. Memphis' defense isn't a major strength by any means, but they aren't the weakness they were in past seasons. The Tigers are 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Both of these teams play at about an average pace. This is a high total for a game involving an excellent defense and two teams who play at an average pace.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a team I've backed many times for unders in recent years, but I'll be on the over in this game. USC has been a very good over team, and I think this number is set a little low.

Iowa plays in the Big Ten West. To say that there aren't good quarterbacks in the Big Ten West is an understatement. Truthfully, there aren't any good passing attacks. Iowa's seccondary is good, but they aren't as good as the numbers on the stat sheet will tell you. Let's take a look at some of the opponents they have faced. They faced Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, Purdue (without their QB and Rondale Moore), Northwestern (yikes), MTSU, Illinois, and Nebraska (Martinez isn't good). Even the good teams they played this year aren't that good through the air (Wisconsin and Michigan for example). 

Iowa actually gave up 400 plus yards 3 times (Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota). Their defense is good but not great.

USC has three guys projected to be first round draft picks at wide receiver. Slovis is an excellent quarterback. Graham Harrell is an excellent offensive coordinator and I expect USC to be well prepared offensively. 

Iowa also isn't accustomed to facing defenses as weak as USC's defense. The Trojans are banged up in the secondary, and their run defense is really bad to start with. USC only allowed less than 20 points twice this year. The Trojans don't have the pass rush needed to make Iowa uncomfortable. 

The weather shouldn't play a role here in San Diego. The Hawkeyes have a good quarterback in Stanley and I think he makes some big plays here. Slovis and his wide receivers should connect on some big gainers. 

Iowa isn't likely to end up in a low scoring game like they would against most of their Big Ten West opponents. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their pace of play in recent weeks. In the early going this year, they were one of the top five fastest teams in the NBA. Philadelphia now ranks 21st in tempo in their last ten games. Milwaukee ranks 3rd in tempo.

Milwaukee is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency both for the year and for the last ten games. The Bucks are giving up only 1.014 points per possession on the year. They are giving up an even lower 1.003 points per possession during their last ten contests. 

Philadelphia ranks 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

Christmas Day unders have done extremely well in the NBA, especially games that start early in the day. The under is 27-11 (71.1%) in Christmas Day games that tip off at 4 pm eastern or earlier. 

This is the day after the players get to celebrate Christmas with their families and the games being lower scoring here make a lot of sense to me.

With this high number, I'll look for this to stay under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics host the Toronto Raptors in a game that tips off just after noon on Christmas Day.

Boston ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Toronto is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

While Toronto has been pushing the pace, Boston has really slowed things down of late. The Celtics are 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games.

Christmas Day unders have done extremely well in the NBA, especially games that start early in the day. The under is 27-11 (71.1%) in Christmas Day games that tip off at 4 pm eastern or earlier. 

This is the day after the players get to celebrate Christmas with their families and the games being lower scoring here make a lot of sense to me.

Two good defenses in an early game on Christmas Day.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers push the tempo. Georgia State ranks 39th in overall tempo so far this year. Georgia State is shooting 39.9% from 3 point range as well. The Panthers have a lot of good spot up shooting options.

SMU is much better now that Kendric Davis was cleared to play. Davis is probably the best player on the team. He started at TCU and transferred over here. Davis is 20/20 from the free throw line thus far, and he is both capable of scoring and facilitating for others. 

Georgia State has a glaring weakness on the defensive glass. They rank 330th in defensive rebounding percentage. That is a bad weakness to have against SMU. SMU is 8th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. How bad is Georgia State on the defensive glass? Duke got 30 offensive rebounds against them! Georgetown also racked up 20 offensive boards against Georgia State. SMU ranks almost exactly tied with both of them in offensive rebounding percentage. Look for a lot of second chance opportunities and trips to the line. SMU is shooting 77.8% from the free throw line.

Georgia State should be able to hang in this game, and I could see this one being a foul fest late because of the margin.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks meet in a key divisional battle on Sunday. Milwaukee has been playing some tremendous basketball this year, and they look like a virtual lock to get the top seed in the Eastern Conference barring a major injury.

Indiana has really been impressive this year as well. They are 20-9 on the year, and they haven't even been at full strength for much of the season.

Milwaukee ranks first in defensive efficiency in the NBA for the season. Indiana ranks seventh.

Divisional unders have done better than unders in other games in the NBA over the last 15 or 20 years. These games mean more. 

Milwaukee is averaging 1.144 points per possession and allowing 1.019 points per possession on the season as a whole. Against only Central Division opponents, Milwaukee is averaging 1.136 points per possession and allowing 0.988 points per possession.

Indiana is averaging 1.090 points per possession overall and they are allowing 1.038 points per possession. Against only Central Division opponents, Indiana is averaging only 1.006 points per possession and giving up only 1.030 points per possession.

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets aren't the same team without guard Jose Alvarado. Alvarado is the engine that runs this offense. Without him, Georgia Tech is getting some terrible looks offensively. Georgia Tech has scored 53 and 47 points in their last two games. The Yellow Jackets were embarrassed in their last game at home against Ball State. I think Georgia Tech likely shows up with a strong defensive effort here (they are 24th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation), but this offense is very weak.

Boise State doesn't foul much at all, and they don't give up many second chance opportunities to opponents. The Broncos offense has been very inconsistent this year.

This game is played on a neutral court at the Stan Sherrif Center in Hawaii. This has been a pretty good under gym in the long run.

I had this one a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers rank 342nd in the nation in tempo. Duquesne is 286th in average possession length. This should be a game played at an extremely slow pace. 

UAB ranks 269th in effective field goal percentage, and that is despite playing a weak slate of defenses so far this year. The Blazers rely on offensive rebounds, and Duquesne is 38th in defensive rebounding.

Both of these teams have been excellent at defending without fouling. 

This game is played on a neutral court which is a positive for unders.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game where BYU is a huge favorite. BYU has shown the tendency to be happy to slow down a game with a big lead. They are likely to have a large lead here and that should help us.

Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said he wanted to completely change the style of play for his team this year. They were in the top 20 in tempo last year. He didn't like them playing that fast. Weber State has slowed all the way down to 282nd this year. They are trying to play only in the halfcourt.

Unders with a large spread and a total that isn't low have been strong in the past decade. We'll take one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys rank 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have really played some shutdown defense so far this year. Oklahoma State has played the 46th toughest slate of offenses, so it isn't from them just locking down bad offenses. This Cowboys team is playing some really good defense, and they are mixing up some man and zone defenses.

Minnesota is a solid 68th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 25th toughest slate of offenses in the country so far this year. The Golden Gophers are 261st out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. They are playing quite a bit slower without Amir Coffey in the backcourt pushing the pace this year. Minnesota is looking to win games in the halfcourt more often than not.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under. Both of these defenses have been far more consistent than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama coach Richie Riley has talked about wanting his team to play quicker. Against Coastal Carolina, they'll get their chance to speed up the tempo. Coastal Carolina is averaging playing at a blistering pace of 76 possessions in their last five games. The Chanticleers want to run early and often.

Coastal Carolina has had some trouble with teams who are good at forcing turnovers, but South Alabama ranks in the bottom 1/3 of teams in the country in forced turnover percentage. Coastal Carolina excels at getting second chance points, and South Alabama is weak on the defensive boards. 

Both of these teams have been getting to the line frequently, and both teams shoot the ball well from the free throw line. This should be a tight game, and overtime and a foul fest are both real possibilities.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners push the pace as much as they can. UTSA ranks 35th in the nation in tempo. UTSA is 143rd in offensive efficiency, but they are only 289th in defensive efficiency. UTSA has had 7 of their 11 games finish at 151 points or higher so far this year.

Illinois State is a rare team from the MVC who wants to push the pace. Illinois State does use a zone defense at times, but UTSA has been great against the zone defense.

I have this number at 150 and strongly leaned to the over last night, with the line drop I'm taking the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is being played in Boca Raton (at Florida Atlantic). The weather here should be factor. Winds of 20 mph with higher gusts are forecast for gametime here. 

I wouldn't typically want to play an under with these two teams, but with this high of a number and the weather factor- I'm taking the under.

Both of these teams are more explosive through the air than on the ground. With high winds like this it should limit the downfield passing attacks some. 

I would expect to see some more running of the football than most would expect, and both rushing defenses are pretty strong. With more running plays the clock keeps moving which is clearly a plus for the under.

There are numerous very strong systems for high wind unders with a high posted total. I'll go with the systems here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have been an under machine this year. Only one of their games has gone over the posted total. In fact, San Diego State's last four games have all finished with a total of 30 points or lower. 

San Diego State plays slowly on offense, and they are very inefficient. Juwan Washington is a good running back when he's healthy, but he is banged up now and is questionable for this game. San Diego State has very little passing game.

Central Michigan had a good year offensively, but they were up against some extremely weak defenses in the MAC. Central Michigan scored only 12 points against Miami and 0 points against Wisconsin. 

Though this is certainly a low number, I think this game is likely to stay in the 30's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears slow the game down. Missouri State looks to use the shot clock up and then execute their play in the last 10 or 12 seconds of the shot clock. Part of the reason they play this way is because this team has had so much trouble with turnovers offensively. Even playing slower, they rank 327th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. The Bears play slow and they aren't all that efficient because of their turnovers.

Oral Roberts has tended to try to speed the game up when they are playing against weaker opponents. They have had some very high scores this year, but those have been against the likes of Houston Baptist and Chicago State. Those are two of the very fastest (Houston Baptist is the fastest) paced teams in the country, and they are both bad at defense. 

Missouri State has slowed down the pace against LSU and Buffalo already this year. I think they'll get the pace they want here as well.

I had this game lined at 133, so I'm happy to grab the under at this price.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have completely changed the way they play this year. Give Brad Underwood credit for realizing that their previous aggressive style of trapping teams for the whole shot clock was getting them in too much foul trouble and giving up too many easy looks by the bucket. 

Underwood picked up a huge recruit in 7'0 290 lbs Kofi Cockburn. He is a presence in the lane on defense and the Fighting Illini are relying on him heavily. Illinois ranked 338th (15th worst) in the country in fouls committed last year. They have committed the fewest fouls per field goal attempt this year of anyone in the country. 

Illinois ranked 52nd in tempo last year, but they are all the way down to 198th this year. Missouri always wants to play slow. The Tigers are 280th in tempo.

Missouri has only had one game all season go over this total. The Tigers are excellent on defense, but their shooting percentages are ugly.

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot on offense.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Morehead State has played 11 games so far this year. Only 3 of those have gone past 136 points total. In fact, five of their games have finished at 124 points or lower already this year. Morehead State ranks 297th in offensive efficiency in the country. The Eagles are shooting only 59.4% from the free throw line. Morehead State also plays slowly (272nd in average possession length out of 353). 

Ohio is 303rd in average possession length, so they tend to move even slower than Morehead State. The Bobcats are the better team, and they will likely win this game. Ohio has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year, and they still have above average defensive numbers on the season.

I think this one stays in the low 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are second in the nation (out of 130 teams) in tempo. Kent State is 8th in the nation in tempo. Both teams have struggled at times this year with teams who look to slow the game down and bleed the clock while controlling the ball most of the game. That won't be an issue here. Both teams want to get snaps off as fast as they can, and there should be a bunch of possessions in this contest.

Jordan Love has had a disappointing season. Love was terrific a year ago for Utah State. He is clearly a very talented quarterback, but the cast around him wasn't quite as good this year. They also played some solid pass defenses in the Mountain West. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Kent State's pass defense ranks 128th in the country this year. This is a great chance for Jordan Love to go out with a bang and put up a lot of yards against this Kent State defense.

Crum has done a nice job for Kent State at quarterback. He doesn't make sensational plays too often, but he is efficient with the football. He has good receivers on the outside, and I think Kent State can get some big gainers in this game. 

Bowl games between two teams with middling records have been strong to the over in the past few seasons. 

Look for the extreme tempo to lead to quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star CBB Early Bird Special* The Navy Midshipmen rank as the second slowest paced team in the country so far this year. They have only been faster than the Virginia Cavaliers. In eight games against Division I opponents, Navy has played four games that have finished at 105 points or less in regulation. Mount St. Mary's has been held to 51 points or fewer three times already this year. 

Mt. St. Mary's is 316th in overall tempo, so they aren't likely to try to push the issue here either. While their defensive numbers don't look great, they have faced a schedule of strong offenses thus far and have clearly improved defensively from a year ago.

Navy is 316th in effective field goal percentage offense. Mt. St. Mary's is 318th in that same statistic. I wouldn't expect good shooting numbers here.

With a slow pace and two weak offenses, I expect to see a very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a lot of talent this year. Coastal Carolina's DeVante Jones is a sensational sophomore who can score in bunches. Coastal Carolina has scored 90 points or more in four straight games coming into this one. The Chanticleers are 110th in tempo in the nation. 

Scott Cross is the new coach at Troy, and Cross has always been a guy who wants his teams to play quickly. Troy slowed things down last year, but they are beginning to play a little quicker under Cross this season. 

These defenses are very weak. Coastal Carolina ranks 255th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 273rd toughest slate of offenses (weak schedule). Troy ranks 287th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 282nd toughest slate of offenses.

Two bad defenses and two teams who prefer to play uptempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Toyota Center which is a huge venue and it is has been a great under venue. The under is 10-4 in the last 14 games played here. 

Utah State's defense got a huge boost with Neemas Queta returning to the lineup. The Aggies look amazing on offense so far this year. They are clearly good on offense, but they have played the 46th easiest slate of defenses thus far. They face an excellent USF defense here.

USF is third in the nation in forced turnover percentage. This team is 68th in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are 301st in the nation in overall tempo. USF has had 7 of their 10 games finish at 124 points or lower this season.

On a neutral floor that has been tough for shooters, I like value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* UIC has ranked in the top 68 in the country in tempo in each of the last three seasons. The Flames started the season playing very slow this year, but they have had a couple very fast paced games recently. 

Illinois State is playing fairly quick as well. The Redbirds have also been far more efficient on offense this year, and they have been worse on defense this year than the last few seasons.

Four of UIC's last five games have finished with a tempo of at least 73 possessions. This is an extremely low total considering the pace this game should be played at. The spread here is at a fouling distance and that is helpful as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes play at a very slow pace under Coach John Dunne. Marist was 323rd in overall tempo last year. They are 343rd (out of 353) in overall tempo this year. Marist was solid offensively last year, but they are very weak on the offensive end this season. The Red Foxes went from 102nd last year to 314th this year in effective field goal percentage offense. They very rarely get offensive rebounds. They also draw very few fouls, and when they do get to the line they shoot free throws at a horrible 58.6% clip.

The New Hampshire Wildcats were 353rd out of 353 teams in the nation last year in offensive efficiency. They have improved to a measly 311th this year. New Hampshire though has played the 23rd easiest slate of defenses in the country so far this year. 

Marist and New Hampshire played last year and the final was 58-49. 

Marist has only had 2 of their first 7 games go over this number in regulation. Additionally, 4 of their 7 games have finished at 114 total points or less.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pepperdine Waves are 19th in the nation in average length of possession (least amount of shot clock used). Pepperdine has wanted to go fast all year, and they have done a nice job of forcing teams to play their style.

Portland State wants to play extremely fast under Coach Peery. The Vikings are 81st in average length of possession. Portland State uses a full court press often to try to get steals and quick buckets. 

Both of these teams give up all kinds of second chance points. Look for there to be a lot of extra shots at the hoop from offensive rebounds in this one. These teams rank 300th in defensive rebounding and 322nd.

Pepperdine stands out as the top free throw shooting team in the country. That's important for a couple reasons. First, Portland State fouls a bunch because they press so much. The Vikings fouled about as much as anyone in the country the last two seasons. Second, Pepperdine is favored here by 8 points. If the Waves are up by single digits late, we could see a lot of points late in the game from the foul fest scenario. Pepperdine's 4 best players all shoot at least 83% from the free throw line.

This should be a track meet. Barring some ugly shooting numbers I think this one gets into the upper 160's at a minimum.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I waited for this line to drop and it did. We have seen a two point drop from last night. Stetson has been a good under team and UNC Asheville has been a good over team this year. 

UNC Asheville is favored here, and I do think they are the better team. Asheville does a great job forcing the tempo. They are 37th in the nation in overall pace of play. Asheville has several good scoring options especially at the guard positions. 

UNC Asheville's defense is terrible. They rank 350th in the nation (353 teams) in effective field goal percentage defense. Stetson's defense isn't much better. Stetson ranks 289th in effective field goal percentage defense and an ugly 342nd in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have gotten a lot of offensive rebounds this year, and I would expect a lot of putback opportunities and free throw attempts.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bulls have been much better on defense in recent weeks. The Bulls are actually second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past eight games (behind only Milwaukee). Chicago started the season playing terrible defense and looking to run at every opportunity. They rank 19th in pace in the NBA in the past eight games, so they have slowed down a lot as well.

Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. They rank 9th in defensive efficiency. 

Chicago's games have been going well under the total lately. In fact, 5 of the Bulls last ten games have finished at 198 points or less in regulation. 

Look for both teams to have some trouble getting open looks here. The Bulls leading scorers are playing with minor injuries as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers were 106th in average possession length last year. They are 305th so far this year. A significant slowdown by Pitt. They are now playing in the halfcourt and winning with their strong defense. Coach Capel has done a good job getting this team to buy into his defensive system. Pitt ranks 61st in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Northern Illinois lost Levi Bradley and Dante Thorpe from last year's team, and those were their best play makers on offense. The Huskies were 86th in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 217th in offensive efficiency so far this year. That is despite the fact they have played the 309th toughest slate of defenses (very weak) so far this season. 

Both teams are clearly better on defense than offense. Both teams want to play slowly. Northern Illinois has seen 6 of their 9 games against Division I opponents finish below this posted total. Pitt has seen 6 of their 10 stay under this number.

The number has risen to the point that I have to bet the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes have been pretty impressive so far this year. Kent is clearly much better on the defensive end than they were last year. They also look much better on offense, but I don't think that part will continue. Kent State is 86th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they have faced the 26th easiest schedule of defenses in the country (out of 353). They have only faced one team (Ohio State) in the top 150 in effective field goal percentage defense. 
UC Irvine is 27th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Anteaters always work very hard on defense for coach Russell Turner. UC Irvine tends to prefer to slow the game down a bit as well.
Kent State's defense has given everyone they have played this year quite a bit of trouble. They were actually tied with Ohio State with 10:30 left in the game before Ohio State went on a big run to close the game.
This game is played at a neutral site (El Paso Texas). This is at altitude and neither of these teams are accustomed to playing in these conditions.
Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans offense has really improved drastically under Ryan Tannehill. I don't think anyone could have expected the Titans to get this much better with the quarterback change. Marcus Mariota just wasn't getting it done, and Tannehill has been much more aggressive. The fact that Tannehill is looking downfield more often and is keeping opposing defenses honest has made things easier on the Titans running game as well.

The over is 7-0 in the 7 games Tannehill has started since the quarterback change. Only one of those games fell below this number. 

Houston played terribly in their loss to Denver. The Texans need to put it back together here. I do think Houston has the ability to take advantage of the Titans primary weakness on defense (their secondary). Tennessee hasn't been tested in the secondary many times of late, but they face a great quarterback and some excellent receivers here. 

Both of these teams are willing to take deep shots and both teams have question marks at the safety spots. 

I see both offenses having quite a bit of success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos defense has played well in recent weeks. Denver seems like a team that wants to play hard to the end of the season. Fangio deserves some credit for keeping this team interested after a really poor start to the season. 

The Kansas City defense has played very well of late. They are still susceptible against the run, but this is a much improved secondary.

Patrick Mahomes is clearly not 100% healthy now, and that has hurt the Chiefs ability to get big plays on offense.

The Chiefs have a long history of playing unders when they are big favorites at home. When Kansas City is a home favorite of 6 points or more the under is 39-17 in their last 56 games. When the total is at least 44.5- the under is a whopping 22-5. 

The weather here looks helpful for the under. Winds of about 12 mph with snow are likely during this game. That should make both teams more cautious with their play calling. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames have played an extremely easy schedule so far this year. Liberty hasn't played a single team all year ranked in the top 170 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. That changes here against Vanderbilt. The Commodores rank 11th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Vanderbilt has also done their best to push the tempo. The Commodores rank 120th in the country in pace. This is an extremely low total for a game with one team who plays quickly.

Liberty's offense ranks 45th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Flames have been able to get to the free throw line at the 11th highest rate of any team in the country. Liberty has multiple good shooters on the floor at all times.

Vanderbilt has only had one game finish under 137 points in regulation this year. This total has been bet down to the point where I see value on the over. Last year when these two teams met the final total was 149 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank as the fastest paced team in the country (out of 353 teams) when it comes to average possession length. Green Bay has played a bunch of teams who try to slow the game down so far this year. Green Bay has played only one team who ranks in the top half of teams in the country in tempo this year. That was their game against New Mexico that was played to a ridiculous pace of 87 possessions.

Evansville ranks 62nd in average possession length, and I don't expect them to try to slow the game down. The Purple Aces have been doing a good job spreading the floor and getting open looks for their outside shooters.

Green Bay is much improved offensively, and they are much worse defensively this year. The Phoenix rank 347th in the nation out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. This kind of defense combined with the tempo they play will make for some extremely high scoring games. Six of their last nine games have gone over this total.

Look for an extremely fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks are really buying into Eric Musselman's defensive system so far this year. Musselman wanted to instill a defensive philosophy first with this program and thus far it has worked out nicely. 

Arkansas ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Razorbacks have allowed more than 61 points only once all season! 

Tulsa plays a lot of zone defense and slows down the pace. Tulsa lost their playmakers on offense from last year, and their efficiency on that end of the floor won't be very good this season. 

Tulsa is 34th in effective field goal percentage defense on the season. This is a team that has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 58 points or less.

Look for open shots to be difficult to come by in this one. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are similar teams. Both of them lost their top scoring options from last year. These are two teams led by a coach that is defensive-minded. Last year, both of these teams were better on offense than they have been in any recent year. Neither of them will be as good on offense this year. 

Kansas State isn't even close to the same on offense without Dean Wade, Barry Brown, and Kamau Stokes. The Wildcats have played a very weak schedule this year so far, but they are still only 183rd in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Mississippi State has yet to play a team in the top 75 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Kansas State is 18th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Bulldogs are without their top bucket getters (Weatherspoon and Peters) from last year as well.

I would expect a slow pace when these two meet. This game is also played at a neutral site, and it starts at 11:30 am eastern. Those are positives for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs used 17.0 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 19.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. This team has far less offensive talent this year, especially at the guard positions. Head Coach Justin Hutson uses a full court press quite a bit to try to slow the game down. It is a zone press that controls the tempo. 

Cal is playing much slower under new coach Mark Fox. Fox is definitely a defensive-minded coach. Cal has knocked down a lot of 3's so far this year, but they have played the 205th toughest slate of defenses on the season. Fresno State's defense should give them trouble. 

With neither team looking to run and both teams short on offensive weapons, I think this one stays low scoring. With the move up today, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina State Bulldogs have more offensive ability than they did a year ago. South Carolina State has Tashombe Riley back in the fold this year, and he put up 20 points in their win over Presbyterian last game. They also have a couple good low post scorers in Applewhite and Kinard. 

South Carolina State has ugly offensive numbers thus far, but they have faced three teams in the top 33 in effective field goal percentage offense according to KenPom (Memphis, Liberty, and Tulsa). Now, they face a UNC Asheville team who ranks 351st in effective field goal percentage defense. 

UNC Asheville can't play defense, but they are forcing the issue and they can score. They were 350th in tempo last year, but are 66th in tempo so far this year. Asheville is good at getting to the basket and the SC State defense has ranked 340th or worse in 2 point field goal percentage defense in three straight years! 

Also important is the fact that both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. There should be a lot of second chance points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen take on the Yale Bulldogs here. UMass lost their star scorer from a year ago in Pipkins. This is a UMass offense that I believe will have some trouble scoring against top defenses this year. They just don't have enough scoring options. Yale ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Yale is controlling the tempo this year. They are 274th in tempo overall and 318th in average possession length. They will look to slow this game down. 

Rutgers was able to hold UMass to 57 points, and the Yale defense ranks better than them overall. 

Yale's offensive efficiency has dropped quite a bit from last year. They lost their top two offensive players from last season. UMass has more athleticism and should gradually improve on defense this year. 

I lined this game a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played 10 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. This is a team with a lot of offensive weaknesses, but they are very strong defensively. Little Rock has faced the 97th toughest schedule of offenses this year, and they are still ranked 113th in defensive efficiency. That's excellent for a Sun Belt level team. 

Little Rock is 253rd in offensive efficiency. The Trojans are 341st in turnover percentage. An alarming 24.9% of their offensive possessions end in a turnover. 

Tennessee State ranks 340th in turnover percentage on offense. The Tigers have seen 24.8% of their offensive possessions end in turnovers. The Tigers haven't played good defenses this year, and this is a big test for their offense. 

Little Rock has slowed their pace down drastically this year. The Trojans were 55th in pace of play last year, but they are 260th so far this year. I think they are the better team and I expect them to control the tempo. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have an excellent defense. Louisville has only allowed more than 62 points once in their last eight games. They have held their last two opponents (Michigan and Pittsburgh) to 43 and 46 points. This is a Cardinals team with all kinds of athleticism, and opponents just aren't getting clean looks at the hoop against them. Louisville ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.853 points per possession. 

Texas Tech is always going to be a defense first team as long as Chris Beard is their coach. Beard is a tremendous coach, and he gets his players to buy into this defensive system. If you don't work extremely hard on defense, you won't see the floor on his team. Texas Tech is 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

Texas Tech's offensive numbers aren't very good this year, and they have played one of the 25 easiest slates of defenses on the year. They face an elite defense in this one.

Jahmius Ramsey is questionable with an injury for the Red Raiders, and he is key to their offense. 

This game is played at Madison Square Garden. There isn't a more proven under arena in all of college basketball. The shooting backdrop is tough here, and the under has dominated in games at MSG.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls haven't played a game higher than 145 points all year. In fact, all but one of their games has finished with 135 points or less. Temple's new coach Aaron McKie said from day one this team was going to be all about defense. So far, he has been right. Temple is 19th in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. They were 164th last season. 

St. Joe's is missing Taylor Funk (out with an injury) more than I thought they would. Funk averaged 9.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Ryan Daly has to do too much without Funk in the lineup. Daly has 23, 25, and 32 points in the three games since Funk was injured. Daly is a pretty good scorer, but he isn't a guy you would want carrying your team all the time. There just isn't a good second option for St. Joe's. I think Temple's excellent defense will key in on Daly and make things difficult for him.

St. Joe's has been extremely inefficient in three straight games. Those games were against three teams that rank as average or worse in effective field goal percentage defense. Temple is elite on defense. The Hawks should have a hard time scoring.

Temple's offense ranks 297th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Owls have scored more than 70 points only once this year. They'll likely top 70 here, but they aren't usually efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa State Cyclones rank 12th in the nation in quickest tempo based on their average possession length. Iowa State is averaging 73.6 possessions in their games. Seton Hall is 95th in pace of play. They are averaging 71.3 possessions in their games. 

These two teams just met on a neutral site and the final was 84-76 Seton Hall. That game was played on a floor that is a tough gym for shooters. There were only 24 free throws total in that game. 

This game should be played at a very quick pace again. This is at a normal location and the total is slightly lower than it was before. That makes little sense because they cleared the number before and played to a 74 possession pace. I expect a similar pace and this one should go over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings are playing much slower this year. De'Aaron Fox is the catalyst for this team, and he is out with an injury. The Kings offense has been a little less efficient without him, and their defense has actually been better. Fox is one of the quickest players in the NBA, and without him the Kings don't have a reason to push the pace as much.

The Dallas Mavericks have been really good on defense at home. Dallas is giving up only 1.035 points per possession at home this year. Dallas is playing a back to back here which is a positive for the under as well.

Dallas plays at an average pace and Sacramento rates as the second slowest paced team in the NBA.

Dallas is a clear favorite here which reduces the overtime risk.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have changed up their style in recent weeks. Chicago ranked in the top 8 or 9 in tempo for the first month of the season. For the season overall, they now rank 12th in tempo. Chicago ranks 22nd in tempo in their last five games alone. They have slowed things down and improved their defense of late. The Bulls are giving up just 1.047 points per possession (9th best in NBA) in their last five games.

The Miami Heat have consistently been one of the better defenses in the NBA under Erik Spoelstra. The Heat also have slowed their tempo. Miami is 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. 

I don't see either team pushing the pace here. Sunday unders have done very well in the past 15 years in the NBA. 

I see this total as a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Pittsburgh Steelers have major injury issues on offense. Duck Hodges is now the starter at quarterback. He hasn't necessarily done anything wrong, but he is clearly a below average NFL starting quarterback. He doesn't have much help around him either. Smith-Schuster and Conner are both out for this game and that is a big hit to the Steelers offense. 

Pittsburgh's defense has carried them this year. The Steelers defense in its current state is a top five defense in the NFL. They have been able to force a ton of turnovers and they have a good red zone defense. 

Arizona's offense has been very up and down. The Cardinals have put up some big yardage numbers in the fourth quarter (garbage time) of some losses. Kyler Murray is coming off a really poor game and he is less than 100 percent healthy.

The under is 23-4 in the Steelers last 27 road games where they are a favorite. They have played a lot of tight low scoring games. I think that happens again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies are 340th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They now play an excellent Texas Longhorns defense. Texas is 41st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is a solid 78th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have struggled at times with turnovers on the offensive end. I would expect a pretty sloppy game here.

This game is played on a neutral court which is helpful for the under. I strongly considered playing this one last night, and now the line has risen by 1.5 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons defense has played much better of late. Atlanta has allowed 347 yards or less in four of their last five games. Atlanta is giving up 368 yards per game for the season, but their defense has been trending quickly in the right direction. It's also important to point out that Atlanta has played the toughest slate of opposing offenses in the NFL so far this season. Some more positive regression to the mean is likely. 

The Atlanta offense has been disappointing. Matt Ryan appears to be playing at far less than 100 percent. The Falcons running game is inconsistent as well. Carolina's defense is stronger in the secondary. I'm not sure Atlanta can consistently take advantage of the Carolina weakness against the run.

Carolina's offense has really tailed off in recent weeks. They are too dependent on McCaffrey. He is great, but they don't have enough around him. Opposing teams are scheming to stop him more and more, and the Panthers haven't been able to make them pay.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks want to run whenever they have the chance. South Carolina is 24th quickest out of 353 teams in the country when it comes to average possession length. The Gamecocks can sometimes struggle from the floor, but they excel at getting to the line. Houston fouls a lot because they are so aggressive on defense. 

Houston is 110th in average possession length so they are playing pretty fast as well. The Cougars have played four teams who try to stall in their first six opponents. Against both Rice and Houston Baptist they were happy to turn the game into a track meet. 

Both teams excel at getting second chance opportunities. Both teams are also great at getting to the line. Both defenses foul a lot.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Clemson Tigers are just way too good for everyone in the ACC. Clemson's offense didn't play up to expectations for a while this year, but they have been great in recent weeks. Dabo Swinney made it clear a few days ago that he believes the country doesn't respect them enough. Will Clemson want to prove a point in this game? It seems likely.

Virginia's defense was really good early in the season, but if you look at the recent trends from this Cavs defense it is very concerning. Virginia gave up 25 first downs and 483 yards against a subpar Virginia Tech offense. Liberty threw for 313 yards against this Virginia secondary. Virginia gave up a whopping 28 points to a very weak Georgia Tech offense. The Cavs defense is not finishing the season strongly at all. Virginia is without star cornerback Bryce Hall and that has really hurt this unit. 

Clemson has scored 52 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have rolled up 516 yards of offense or more in seven straight games. I think they'll put up a big number here. 

Virginia has scored 20 points or more in all but one game this year. The Cavs do have a good quarterback in Bryce Perkins. Perkins though can make some bad mistakes with the football or hold the ball too long at times. It could create big plays for either the Virginia offense on a big gainer or a pick six or strip six if he doesn't get rid of the ball quicker.

The weather looks good for this game. I see this number as a little too low considering how consistent both of these teams have been at scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Yale is excellent defensively this year. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They have played in consistently low scoring games this year. Yale hasn't had a game higher than 144 points in regulation, which shows their games totals upside is limited. Yale has played 7 of 10 games so far this year under this total. In fact, 6 of their 10 games have finished with 124 points or less. 

Yale is doing a great job controlling the tempo this year. The Bulldogs rank 315th in average possession length this season. Yale is forcing opponents to play their style of basketball and that is allowing them to win with defense.

Lehigh was a fast paced team the last couple years, but they are playing much slower this year. Lehigh ranks 262nd out of 353 in average possession length. Lehigh lost their two best players from last year and their offense has been really inefficient this year. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass. Neither team has gotten to the line much this season.

I had this game several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs have decided to play a completely different style of play this year. The Bulldogs stalled last year because they didn't have enough depth or talent. Asheville's coach Mike Morrell said before the year they would look to push the pace this year. They have the guard quickness and much improved depth to do it. They have definitely been running. Asheville ranks 64th in overall tempo so far this year. They have only scored less than 79 points in one game (against Tennessee). 

Western Carolina ranks 62nd in overall tempo. The Catamounts ranked 335th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have improved some this year, but they have played a bunch of weak offensive teams. I think Asheville's offense will really test them here.

Asheville's defense is terrible. The Bulldogs are 350th out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. Western Carolina is pretty efficient offensively and they should be able to take advantage.

Both teams get to the line a lot and foul a lot. Both teams also get a lot of second chance opportunities on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped to where I have value on the over. I considered this one last night, and the line has dropped quite a bit. Both of these teams are very efficient on offense. Northeastern's motion offense under Coen is tremendous. Davidson's offense under McKillop is very strong as well. These are two coaches many other coaches try to copy on the offensive end because they have run such good offense for years.

Davidson is mediocre defensively and Northeastern is bad on defense. Both teams should get open looks here. 

The spread is 1.5 and overtime is always possible in a spot like this as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks rank 15th in the nation in overall pace of play. They are moving extremely quickly under first year coach Billy Lange. St. Joe's is extremely bad on the defensive end though. The Hawks allowed 82 points against a weak offense in Old Dominion. They allowed 79 points against St. Francis (PA). They allowed 94 points against Lafayette. They allowed 85 points against Loyola Chicago. They now must take on the best offense they have faced this year. Villanova is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Villanova shoots 40.2% from 3 point range. They should get a lot of open looks against a St. Joe's defense that ranks 343rd out of 353 in the nation in 3 point defense. Villanova is 90th in average possession length this year. They have sped up in a big way. If they want to play fast this is a great opportunity for them to do that. Villanova has scored 97 and 98 points already this year. Expect another big number here.

St. Joe's gets up a lot of 3's, and Nova hasn't been good at guarding beyond the arc. Look for the Hawks to find some open looks from long range.

The tempo here should be extremely quick.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans are definitely capable of putting up a lot of points, and that's why this total is so high. When they met a few days ago, the game didn't come close to this posted total.

This game will tip off at 1 pm local time on a Saturday afternoon. This is an extremely rare Saturday early afternoon game for these two teams. These early start times have been very good to under bettors in the NBA in the past decade. That has especially been the case when it is a divisional matchup.

Dallas has been slightly worse on offense and much better defensively at home this year. The Mavericks are clear favorites here, and that reduces the chances of overtime.

With an extremely high total and a divisional game in the early start time, I'll take the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This Pac 12 title game between Utah and Oregon will be played on Friday night in Santa Clara. Utah has a lot on the line here. If LSU beats Georgia, the Utes have a real chance to sneak into the playoffs this year. Utah would be well served to not only win, but be impressive in winning.

The Oregon offense hasn't been good against quality defenses this year. Oregon has had long droughts against good defenses. The Ducks were only 4th best in the Pac 12 in yards per play on offense. Utah was easily first in the conference in yards per play allowed. In fact, Utah was 4th best out of 130 teams in the nation in yards per play allowed. Utah doesn't give up big plays. The Utes should do a great job keeping Oregon in front of them.

The Utah offense relies on the running game. Utah runs the ball on nearly 66% of their offensive plays. Utah has also played at the single slowest pace of any team in the nation this year. They take a lot of time off the clock even when they do score. Oregon ranks 13th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.

Both of these teams are far stronger on defense than offense. 

The forecast in Santa Clara calls for rain all week. On Friday night, rain and some winds are in the forecast. Levi's Stadium has been good for unders to begin with, and this weather would help the under quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas rank 4th in the nation in tempo so far this year. Central Michigan has consistently wanted to push the tempo over the past few seasons. This team will do the same again this season. The Chippewas have scored over 100 points in four games already this year. It wouldn't be stunning if they scored 100 here either. 

Tennessee Martin ranks 353rd out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. They rank 353rd in effective field goal percentage defense as well. They are consistently terrible too. Martin was 351st in that category last year as well. This is an awful defense. 

UT Martin doesn't turn the ball over much. They are also great on the offensive glass. They'll get second chance points against a Central Michigan team that has been very weak on the defensive boards in recent seasons. Central Michigan also ranks in the top 75 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. UT Martin is weak on the defensive glass. A lot of second chance points for both teams.

I don't normally take overs this high, but my number is several points higher than this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said before this season that he felt he tried to do something he just wasn't comfortable with last year when he had his team push the pace to the extreme. They are going back to slowing things down this year. The oddsmakers are trying to adjust, but I don't think this number is low enough.

Weber State has been unfortunate on defense. Opponents are shooting a whopping 82% from the free throw line against them. Opponents are also shooting 44.1% from long range. They have played some good shooting teams early in the year. These numbers can't be sustained.

Utah Valley has struggled with offensive efficiency under Mark Madsen, but this team is working hard on the defensive end. They have already had four games finish at 130 points or less on the year. 

This is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have changed the way they play this year. Yale was a fast paced team who could score in bunches last year with Miye Oni and Alex Copeland leading the way. Yale lost those top two players from a year ago, and James Jones decided this season the Bulldogs needed to hang their hat on their strong defense. 

Yale ranks 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. The Bulldogs have held Penn State to 58 points. They also held Vermont to 52 points. Yale ranks 274th in overall tempo this year compared to 41st a year ago.

Albany has almost always preferred to play slowly under Coach Will Brown. Albany is again playing slower than average this year. Albany hasn't played a team ranked better than 121st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Yale ranks 6th and is far and away the best defense they have faced. 

Both Albany and Yale are good on the defensive glass and have done a nice job defending without fouling this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are coached by first year coach Jamion Christian. He coached at Siena last year where his team finished 353rd (last in the country) in average possession length. George Washington isn't playing quite that slow, but they are looking to slow things down. 

Boston University has typically played to the pace of their opponent. Boston University's defensive tendencies should help out here. They have been better at guarding the 3 point shot than the inside shots under Joe Jones, and George Washington settles for a lot of 3's. 

Both of these teams have been poor at getting offensive rebounds. There shouldn't be many second chance scoring opportunities here.

I think this one should be around 130.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs aren't the same team they were last year. Asheville had to stall and try to keep games as low scoring as possible last year. Mike Morell is in his second year on the job here, and he made it clear he wanted his team to play much faster this year. Asheville is deeper and has more offensive weapons than they did a year ago. Asheville is still very weak defensively though.

Charlotte generally likes to play slowly, but the 49ers have shot the ball better than a year ago. The 49ers shoot better than 78% from the free throw line, and that could be key here since Asheville ranks in the top 20 in the country in fouling. 

Look for their to be enough pace here to get this one over the number based on Asheville's new style of play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Valparaiso Crusaders were 304th in average possession length last year (out of 353 teams). Valpo was a bottom 50 tempo team thanks in large part due to all kinds of major injuries to their leading scorers a year ago. They had to slow down to stay in games.

Matt Lottich said before the season he wanted the Crusaders to play quicker. They have played much faster so far this year. Valpo is 56th out of 353 in average possession length this year. They played fast two years ago too, so it seems like this is a return to their old normal under Lottich. 

The Crusaders have yet to have a game this year finish under this number. Only one has finished below 143 points.

Eastern Michigan hasn't played against a team who ranks in the top 50% of the country in terms of pace all year thus far. That will change here. Eastern Michigan has been making a living at the free throw line on offense. The Eagles have had major trouble rebounding out of their matchup zone in the past. Valpo has been good on the offensive glass this year. 

With Valpo pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line a lot, I like the over at this low number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks secondary is a major weakness. Even without Thielen, the Vikings have plenty of weapons to take advantage of this weakness. Kirk Cousins has been playing great football of late. He has an elite tight end to throw the ball to, and the group of receivers here are still above average. 

The Vikings secondary which was once seen as a strength is now showing by the numbers as a weakness. Minnesota is likely to give up some big plays here to Russell Wilson and his solid group of receivers.

Minnesota has had 5 of their last 6 games reach at least 49 points. The only one in that stretch that didn't was a win over the lowly Redskins. The Vikings games have been sailing over the posted total.

Seattle has scored at least 27 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Seattle is giving up 24 points per game.

With the move below the key number of 49, I like the value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins were 11th in average possession length last year. They have been a really fast paced team for quite some time until this season. This year UCLA ranks 320th in average possession length. The Bruins have a new coach in Mick Cronin and he is working to install a completely different style of play.

UCLA has consistently played the slow pace this year, even when they are up against weaker opponents. The Bruins didn't even try to push the tempo against Chaminade in their recent trip to the Maui Invitational. 

UCLA has been hurt by teams who shoot the ball really well from outside. San Jose State is their opponent here, and San Jose State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. The Spartans are shooting 23.1% from 3 point range on the season. San Jose State relies heavily on getting second chances from their big men grabbing offensive rebounds. UCLA is a great defensive rebounding team.

San Jose State scored just 39 points against Arizona. The Spartans scored only 48 points against Oregon State.

UCLA should control this game and that should help the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs host the Oakland Raiders in a divisional battle on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is a double digit favorite in this game. 

Oakland is going to do everything they can do to run the football as many times as possible here and keep the ball away from Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs aren't giving up too many big plays in the running game, but they are susceptible to giving up a few yards every time. I think Oakland can take quite a bit of time off the clock here.

Kansas City has been a great under team off a bye with Andy Reid. That's partially because the Chiefs have been winning nearly every game off a bye with Reid. That helps because Reid and the Chiefs do slow the tempo down and get far more conservative later in the game with a lead. 

The under is 37-15 in the last 52 times Kansas City was a home favorite of 5.5 points or more. 

The weather will be a factor in this game too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20-22 mph and gusts of 35 mph or higher. That should lead to a few less big plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT Cash* The Miami Heat are averaging 1.154 points per possession at home. Miami is averaging only 1.045 points per possession on the road. This is a Heat team that plays solid defense regardless of where they are though. Miami is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year thus far.

The Brooklyn Nets were 5th in the NBA in tempo before Kyrie Irving went down with an injury, but in their last eight games without him they rank 15th in tempo. Brooklyn's offensive efficiency has dropped from 15th to 23rd in the last eight games as well. On the other end, Brooklyn has improved a lot defensively. They were 19th in defensive efficiency before, but they are 9th in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games.

Miami ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. This should be a slower paced game than normal. This is also an early start game on Sunday, and these have done well for under bettors in the past.

The under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders have picked up the pace in a big way so far this season. MTSU was 176th in average possession length last year. The Blue Raiders are 19th so far this season. They have yet to have a game played at anything less than 71 possessions. They are forcing the pace in a big way.

Belmont wants to run under new coach Casey Alexander. The Bruins have already played a game at 78 possessions and another at 80 possessions. Alexander is known as a tremendous offensive mind, and the Bruins should get a lot of open looks against a bad MTSU defense. 

MTSU allowed 93 points against Coastal Carolina. They also allowed 86 points against Tulane. Belmont is a better team than those two on the offensive end.

With both teams wanting to run and both offenses holding the advantage here, I expect to see a lot of points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes defense is tremendous. The way they have been dominating games lately has been truly amazing. Utah has allowed 7 points or less in five of their last six games. The Utes have only allowed 20 plays of 20 yards or more all season. That is some excellent work at preventing big plays. Colorado's offense has been disappointing all year, and I would be surprised if they have much success at all here. 

Utah plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country. The Utes also run the ball on 66% of their offensive plays. They have shown they are willing to slow down and run the ball even more when they are ahead by a large margin. That is likely to be the case here. 

Colorado's defense has played much better in their last three games. They have a defensive-minded head coach and their seems to be improvement being made. Colorado has been more conservative on offense of late and slowed the pace some too.

I see Utah winning big here and this one staying under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Iowa State has one of the better defenses in the Big 12. There are so many really high scoring teams in the Big 12 that the oddsmakers have to put a fairly high total on every game. Still, it can create some opportunities in spots where the defenses seem to have an advantage.

Kansas State runs the ball 62.5% of the time on offense. This is an offense that wants to be conservative and move very slowly. Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats are only 79th in yards per play on offense.

Iowa State's strength is stopping the run defensively. The Cyclones are 36th best in the country in ypc allowed. They are giving up only 3.93 yards per carry in conference play.

Iowa State plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Cyclones usually rely on the pass to move the football.

The weather looks very shaky for this contest. Heavy winds of 20-25 mph are forecast according to multiple sources. 

I like the under without the wind, and with the wind this looks very valuable.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes rank first in the nation in average possession length this year. The Dukes were 313th last year. Coach Rowe said before the season they were going to be much faster, and they have followed through with that tempo change in a big way.

East Carolina has yet to play a team that runs even close to as much as James Madison. In fact, East Carolina has played Liberty, Navy, and some other teams who play great defense and play very slowly. That has made their totals look pretty low heading into this game. That gives us some extra value here. The Pirates have typically played to the pace of their opponent.

Look for an up and down game where both teams score a lot. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers are a strong under team. Pitt is playing slightly faster this year, but their offense isn't efficient at all. Pitt is 114th in yards per play this year. The usually strong running game just isn't good this season.

Pitt is excellent defensively. Their strength is stopping the run. Pitt ranks 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Panthers easily rank as the best run defense in the ACC.

Boston College is all about the run. If you can stop the run, you should have a lot of success stopping the Eagles offensively. I expect Pitt to at least slow them down here. 

The weather looks questionable in Pittsburgh on Saturday. If there is wind and rain it would be a plus for the under.

Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Southern Miss is much improved offensively this year. They rank 24th in the nation in yards per play. Their running game hasn't been very good, but they have been very good throwing the football. Southern Miss ranks 10th in the nation in yards per pass attempt.

Florida Atlantic started the season a little slow offensively, but the Owls have gotten things going as one would have expected. The Owls are third in CUSA in yards per play. They are first in total yards. Florida Atlantic is the second fastest paced team in the conference. 

Both of these teams have really had trouble with keeping the play in front of them. Both defenses have given up a lot of big plays this year. Southern Miss has allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more (86th in country). Florida Atlantic has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or more (114th in the country). 

Look for both teams to score quite a few points here. Both offenses have clear advantages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have had a bunch of low scoring games in the Big 12. We all know this is a conference where a good defense and low scoring games are very rare. 

In Baylor's last 9 games, 7 of them have had 44 points or less total in regulation. The Bears have gotten more conservative on offense and they are leaning on their very strong defense. 

Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer is banged up with an ankle injury. He is likely to play through it, but that likely makes them a little more conservative on offense. 

Kansas has relied strongly on big plays this year on offense. They aren't an offense who can consistently put together strong drives. The Jayhawks face a Baylor defense who is great at preventing big plays. Baylor has only allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more (7th in the country). 

An important factor here is the weather. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22-25 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. There are very strong angles for taking unders in that kind of wind. It should make both teams run the ball a lot more often here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange offense has been better the last couple games. Syracuse put up 510 yards last week against Louisville. They had 395 yards and 49 points against Duke the week before. Syracuse always plays quickly. They are 16th in the nation in pace of play this season.

Wake Forest is 12th in pace of play, so they are extremely quick. The Demon Deacons are without a couple receivers on offense, but they still put up 618 yards and 39 points on Duke last weekend. I rate the Syracuse defense as the worst defense in the ACC.

Both teams have given up a bunch of big plays this year, and I would expect quite a few big gainers again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have a fierce rivalry. They play for the Old Oaken Bucket. These two teams always get up for this game, and I would expect a lot of intensity on Saturday in West Lafayette. 

Indiana's defense is much improved this year. The Hoosiers rank 35th in the country in yards per play allowed. Indiana has slowed their tempo offensively to help the defense this year, and it has worked. 

Purdue's offense is a shell of its former self without Rondale Moore and Elijah Sindelar. Purdue is reliant on throwing the football now. They have virtually no ground game. Purdue ranks 127th in the nation in yards per carry at a paltry 2.65 per carry.

Indiana's offense also relies on the pass quite a bit. The Hoosiers are 104th in the nation in yards per carry. 

These teams relying on the pass could hurt quite a bit here based on the weather this weekend as well. Multiple forecasts are calling for rain all throughout the day on Saturday, and the rain could be an inch or more. The wind is expected to pick up and be an issue too. The field at Purdue is a grass field and it can get torn up pretty easily. Those conditions are helpful for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers are two of the better under teams in the Big 12. We see a very low total here for a Big 12 game, but I think it is justified. 

The forecast for Friday calls for heavy rain and 15 mph wind. This is a grass field and that will make it tough for scoring.

In addition, West Virginia has virtually no running game. How will they move the ball here? TCU is excellent in pass coverage and the weather will hurt as well.

TCU relies on the run, but West Virginia is excellent at stopping the run. 

The matchups and the weather make this an under play for me.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes haven't played a game that has gone higher than 46 points in the Big Ten. That is just slightly above this number, but there is another key factor involved.

The weather for Friday's game in Nebraska looks terrible. Freezing rain and rain with winds of 15 mph sustained and gusts to 20-25 mph are expected throughout the game. That is definitely significant enough weather to change the game. 

Iowa is 13th in the Big Ten in yards per carry, and I don't think they can consistently move the ball by being extremely conservatively. It will be hard to do anything other than be very conservative in this weather.

Nebraska plays quickly, but they haven't been efficient on offense.

Both defenses are excellent at preventing big plays. Even if the teams move the ball it should be in small increments and take quite a bit of time off the clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SE Missouri State Redhawks lost several of their top offensive players from last year. The Redhawks rank 276th in offensive efficiency so far this year, and they have played two teams who rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is likely to struggle on offense. 

Cal State Fullerton lost their top two scorers from a year ago. Ahmad and Allman took more than half of the team's shots last year and they ran the offense and led the team. Fullerton always works hard on the defensive end for Coach Taylor, but they have been inconsistent on offense. They should be worse on offense this year now that their stars are gone. In their four games against Division I opponents, Fullerton has yet to top 60 points this season! 

This is a neutral site game which is a plus for the under. 

Look for some sloppy basketball between two teams who turn it over a lot and don't have great scoring options.

Take the under.