Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-26-24 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 10-0 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have the worst offense in the majors in the last month, and it isn't close. Chicago also has the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching this season. The White Sox have scored 2 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. They have also scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games (the other game they scored just 4 runs). The Seattle Mariners offense has struggled badly of late. Seattle has scored 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. George Kirby is a really good right handed pitcher. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. Kirby has a 3.20 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the season. Drew Thorpe has a lot of upside and he has allowed 2 runs or fewer in five straight starts. The weather in Chicago calls for moderate temperatures and winds blowing in about 7 mph during this game. Take the under. |
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07-24-24 | Tigers v. Guardians UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians offense has cooled off drastically of late. Cleveland started the year on fire offensively, but in both the last 14 days and 30 days the Guardians have been a bottom 8 offense in the majors. Detroit has hit the ball better of late, but it has been helped by a really high batting average on balls in play. This is still a below average Tigers offense on the whole. Jack Flaherty is having a great bounce back season. Flaherty has a 3.13 ERA along with a 3.16 FIP and a 2.48 xFIP on the season. He is racking up the strikeouts. He is striking out 11.35 batters per nine innings on the season. He is walking only 1.52 batters per nine innings. Tanner Bibee starts for the Guardians, and he has great swing and miss stuff. He is striking out 10.25 batters per nine innings. The Tigers have a lot of high strikeout guys in their lineup. Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. Cuzzi has been one of the most consistent high strikeout/walk ratio umpires and a strong under umpire overall for many years. Six of the last eight Cleveland games have stayed under this low total. Take the under here. |
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07-23-24 | White Sox v. Rangers UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Garrett Crochet has been one of the best left handed starting pitchers in baseball this year. Crochet has a 3.02 ERA with a 2.43 expected ERA and a 2.35 FIP. In his last 14 starts, Crochet has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.68 FIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those starts. The Texas Rangers lineup is just 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average. I think Crochet is a really tough matchup for them. Crochet has great swing and miss stuff. Jon Gray has been good this year. Gray has a 3.96 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. In his career, Gray has a fantastic .213 weighted on base average against this White Sox lineup. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and it isn't even close. In their last 9 games, the White Sox have topped 3 runs only once (that time was only 4 runs too), so they come into this one ice cold. Vic Carapazza is 12-8 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio is high. He should help the pitchers as well. Take the under. |
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07-22-24 | Red Sox v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 8-9 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense is the weakest it has been in many years. Coors Field is still absolutely a hitter friendly park, but many of the Rockies games have been low scoring, especially of late. In the Rockies last 9 home games, 8 of the 9 have stayed under this total. The one that went over the total finished at 11 total runs. In fact, 7 of the 9 games finished with 7 runs or fewer. Austin Gomber has better numbers at home this year than he has on the road. While the Red Sox are a good offense, they are far better against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are 3rd in weighted on base average against righties. They are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Tanner Houck has been tremendous this year for the Red Sox. Houck has a superb 2.54 ERA and a 2.67 FIP. The temperature here should be mild in the upper 70's with a wind blowing in from right field at about 8 mph. Take the under. |
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07-21-24 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank last in both weighted on base average against right handed pitching and wOBA in the last 30 days. The White Sox offense is really bad however you look at it. This team gets held to a very low number very often. Seth Lugo has been solid all season. Lugo has a 2.48 ERA and a 3.32 FIP on the season. He has allowed no runs in his last 12 innings pitched at home. Kansas City is 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Royals offense is just 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching too. Drew Thorpe was excellent in the minors. He struck out 182 batters last year and had a 1.35 ERA in AA earlier this year. Thorpe has a very high upside. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 7 or 8 mph during the game. Take the under here. |
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07-20-24 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Brady Singer in this one. Singer has a solid 3.20 ERA and a 4.01 FIP on the season. In Singer's last five starts he has a 2.67 ERA and a 3.23 FIP. Singer has had drastic home/road splits the last couple years too. Singer has an ERA nearly a full run lower at home than on the road in his career. So far this year, Singer has a 2.72 ERA when pitching at home. Singer's weighted on base average allowed in the second half of the season has been .303 compared to .332 in the first half. The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitchers. This is a good matchup for Singer. The Kansas City Royals are 27th in wOBA on offense in the last 30 days. The Royals aren't walking much at all, and they aren't hitting for much power either. Jonathan Cannon has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. The right hander had one ugly start in Detroit in June, but overall he has been better in his last few starts. The slight wind will be blowing in at about 6 or 7 mph during this game. Take the under. |
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07-19-24 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 9 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds tonight to start off the second half of the MLB season. Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals. Corbin was once a very good starting pitcher, but that was a long time ago. Corbin is now one of the worst left handed starters in baseball. Corbin has a 5.57 ERA and a 6.29 expected ERA for the season as a whole. The Cincinnati Reds are much better against lefties than righties too. The Reds lineup has smashed Corbin in the past. They have a whopping .515 weighted on base average against Corbin. Frankie Montas starts for the Reds here. Montas has a 4.38 ERA and a 4.85 expected ERA on the year. The Nationals are bad against lefties, but are league average against right handed pitching. The youngsters in the Nationals lineup have been good of late. The weather here calls for mid 80's and a slight wind blowing out. Take the over. |
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07-13-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers offense has underwhelmed for much of the year, but they have finally woken up of late. In the last 14 days, Texas ranks second in the majors in weighted on base average. They have been hitting for power at a much higher rate of late. The Houston Astros have been a bit banged up, but Yordan Alvarez was back in the lineup on Friday night and that's a big key. Jose Altuve has been mashing of late too. Houston is sixth in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days. Nathan Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he has long had major problems getting the Houston Astros out. Eovaldi has a terrible .439 wOBA allowed against the Astros. Eovaldi has given up a whopping 12 home runs in 137 at bats against this Astros lineup. Yordan Alvarez is 11/17 with 3 doubles and 2 homers against him. Jose Altuve has 7 home runs in just 48 at bats against him. Spencer Arrigheti walks far too many batters. He relies on getting a bunch of strikeouts. The Rangers rank among the six best teams in the majors in lowest strikeout rate. Arrigheti walks 5 batters per nine innings. Take the over in this one. |
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07-12-24 | Rockies v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* There is heavy wind blowing out to center field in this one, and there is rain in the forecast on and off through the night. There is a good chance this game would be delayed at some point and there is some chance it would be canceled. If the game is played, I like the over here. The bullpen is usually seen a whole lot more in rain delayed games. The Rockies bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors by a huge margin. The Mets have the 12th worst bullpen ERA too. The Mets offense has been red hot in the last few weeks. Tanner Gordon had poor numbers in the minors and I doubt he is successful right away in the majors. The Rockies have major splits vs. righty/lefty. Colorado is much better against left handed pitching and they are up against a lefty here. Take the over here. |
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07-11-24 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Shane Baz doesn't have much experience in the big leagues. He has some good stuff, but he is prone to giving up a big inning here and there. Tampa Bay is bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, but they are top ten in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Nestor Cortes has struggled mightily against this Rays lineup. In 126 plate appearances, the Rays lineup has an impressive .382 wOBA against Cortes. Edwin Moscoso is the home plate umpire here. Out of 91 umpires in my umpire database, Moscoso is dead last in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. Moscoso also has the single lowest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire during that time. Not surprisingly, the over is 84-50 in his 134 games behind home plate. Take the over here. |
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07-10-24 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire in recent weeks. Now, they go up against Patrick Corbin. The current Mets lineup has a really impressive .389 weighted on base average against Corbin. Pete Alonso leads the way with 5 career homers against Corbin. Corbin was once a very good pitcher, but that is no longer the case. Corbin is a subpar lefty with an ERA over 5. He gives up very hard contact, and he no longer generates the swings and misses that he did several years ago. The Mets are fourth in the majors in wOBA against lefties this year. This is a good matchup for the Mets offense. Luis Severino is a really streaky pitcher. Severino has been struggling of late. He has a 6.04 ERA and a 5.61 FIP in his last four starts. The Nationals lineup has been very weak against lefties, but they are 15th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire in this game. In my umpire spreadsheet where I track all the umpires, Torres is top three in the majors in lowest percentage of pitches called a strike. He continually has a much lower than average strikeout/walk ratio. The over is 85-65 in his games behind home plate. The wind here is a key as well. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph blowing out toward center field are expected for this game. The ball should be carrying very well. Take the over. |
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07-09-24 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has shown a lot of life lately. Oakland has been giving more of their young prospects a chance of late, and those guys have gone out and produced right away. Oakland has scored 41 runs in their last six games. The A's are top ten in weighted on base in the last 14 days despite having a low batted ball average. Joey Estes starts for Oakland here. Estes has been great when pitching at home, but on the road he has been atrocious. Estes has a 7.00 ERA and a .397 weighted on base average allowed on the road this season. The Boston offense is above average on the whole and the depth of the lineup is solid. Brayan Bello has struggled at home with an ERA over 6 so far this year at Fenway. The weather here calls for winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Fenway is a top 3 hitters park and with warm weather and winds blowing out it is even more that way. Take the over. |
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07-07-24 | Astros v. Twins OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins rank second and first respectively in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Both of these offenses have been on fire of late. The Minnesota Twins have seen their last four games all finish with 11 total runs or more. The Houston Astros have seen six of their last eight games finish with 11 total runs or more. Spencer Arrigheti is walking more than five batters per nine innings. In his last four starts, Arrigheti has an 8.64 ERA and a 6.94 FIP. Simeon Woods-Richardson started the year well, but he has been slipping of late. In his last six starts, he has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.96 FIP. He has allowed six home runs in his last 31 innings. The weather here is a positive for runs as well. The temperature will be around 80 degrees with about 10 mph winds blowing out toward center. Take the over. |
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07-06-24 | White Sox v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily worst in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Miami has a brutal .265 wOBA against lefties and they are dead last in ISO (power), so this Marlins team is bad all around against lefties. The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against righties. The White Sox are a right handed heavy lineup, and they have consistently been dominated even by mediocre right handed pitching. Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the lowly White Sox this year. Crochet has some of the best statistics of any lefty this year. In Crochet's last 12 starts, he has a sparkling 1.63 ERA and a 1.65 FIP. He has 12 walks and 101 strikeouts in those 12 starts. It's a very tough matchup for the Marlins hitters. Yonny Chirinos has a solid 3.77 ERA and 3.92 FIP this year. Chirinos is actually backed by a pretty good bullpen in Miami too. This total is set low, but it is low for good reasons. Take the under here. |
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07-05-24 | Tigers v. Reds UNDER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds are 27th and 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average this year. Against right handed pitching, the Reds are 26th and the Tigers are 25th. The Reds have been held to zero or one run in 6 of their last 16 games. This offense is capable of going very quiet. If you look down the order, the Reds batting averages are very poor. It can be tough for them to string together hits. The Tigers offense rates even a bit worse than the Reds for the season overall. This Tigers offense is young and not very good. Reese Olson is a good young starter for the Tigers. Olson has a 3.32 ERA and an even more impressive 2.90 FIP on the season. He has been terrific in his last three starts. Carson Spiers has a 3.13 ERA and a 2.68 FIP this season. He's not a great pitcher by any means, but he doesn't walk many guys and he doesn't give up many home runs. The Reds bullpen is better than league average and the Tigers bullpen is league average. Take the under here. |
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07-03-24 | Astros -105 v. Blue Jays | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros have finally heated up. The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. Houston clearly has a very high upside. The Astros offense has finally started to click in recent weeks. Ronel Blanco has been solid for the Astros this year. He has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 15 starts on the season. Yusei Kikuchi is a streaky pitcher, and he has been bad of late. Kikuchi has a 7.12 ERA in his last seven starts overall. He has allowed five home runs in his last 11 innings pitched. He has also allowed four runs or more in five of those last seven starts. The current Astros lineup has blasted Kikuchi in the past. They have a .439 weighted on base average against Kikuchi in 101 plate appearances. With Kikuchi in poor form right now, I like this matchup for the Astros. The Blue Jays are below .500 even at home, and they are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. Take Houston. |
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07-02-24 | Mets -133 v. Nationals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets have been on fire offensively in the last month. They are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days at a stunning .373 wOBA. The Nationals are 22nd in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days at just .300. Washington has struggled badly this year against left handed pitching. The Nationals are in the bottom five in the majors in all major offensive categories against lefties. They are bottom three in most. The New York Mets are a top three offense against lefties. They have been smashing lefties in recent weeks. We have a lefty starting for both teams in this one. Sean Manaea is at least a league average lefty and he might be a bit better than that. He has a 3.89 ERA and a 3.81 FIP on the season thus far. D.J. Herz has had one great showing and that was against the Miami Marlins who are hapless against left handed pitching. Herz has a couple big negatives against him. First, he walks far too many batters. Throughout his minor league career he carried very high walk rates. Second, he allows too many home runs. The Mets have been hot of late, and I trust their offense a lot more in this spot. Take New York. |
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06-30-24 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense is slowed considerably by the loss of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Both of these guys had been contributing in a big way of late. They are both on the injured list now. The Miami Marlins have the worst offense in baseball. Miami is bad against right handed pitching, but they are next level bad against left handed pitching. They are historically bad against the lefties. Ranger Suarez is one of the best left handed pitchers in baseball. Suarez has a fantastic .250 weighted on base average allowed against the current Miami Marlins lineup. He has a 2.01 ERA on the season thus far this year. The Phillies offense is no better than mediocre in their current state. Both bullpens are top ten in FIP allowed so far this year. Take the under. |
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06-29-24 | Astros v. Mets OVER 8 | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire of late. The Mets are averaging a whopping 6.65 runs per game over a large 20 game sample size in their last 20 games. The Mets have been elite agianst lefties all season. Framber Valdez is a quality lefty, but he hasn't been as overpowering this year as he has been in some past seasons. Valdez has a 3.68 ERA and his strikeout rate is down to just 7.03 strikeouts per nine innings. Houston's offense has been waking up in recent weeks. The Astros are still a really talented lineup, and most of the team has underachieved for the year overall thus far. Houston is up against Tylor Megill here. Megill has a 4.81 ERA on the season. The wind is a key factor here too. The weather calls for winds blowing out to center field at 17 mph at the start of this game. The wind is expected to continue at 15 or 16 mph on average during the contest. Citi Field is a place where the weather has mattered more than the average stadium. Take the over here. |
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06-28-24 | Twins v. Mariners -124 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Seattle ML* The Seattle Mariners are back home, and they are 27-12 on the season at home. Seattle has one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Mariners also have a very underrated starting pitcher going in this one. Logan Gilbert has a 1.21 ERA in his last four starts. His FIP during that time is an impressive 2.25 as well. Gilbert has only walked one batter in that 4 game span, and he has 28 strikeouts. The Twins do have a good lineup, but Gilbert has been great against them in his career. The Twins roster has just a .246 batting average and a .298 weighted on base average against Gilbert. Bailey Ober starts for the Twins. Ober has a .340 weighted on base average allowed against the Mariners roster in his career. The Twins bullpen is a bit weaker than the Mariners bullpen too. Seattle has struggled against lefties, but they are pretty good against right handed pitching. I like Gilbert and the bullpen to pitch well here. Take Seattle. |
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06-26-24 | Nationals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals in this final game of the series on Wednesday afternoon. San Diego has been on fire offensively of late. The Padres have scored 6 runs or more in five of their last six games. Washington has scored 6 runs or more in four of their last five games. Dylan Cease starts for the Padres. Cease is ultra talented, but he is very streaky. In his last five games, Cease has an ERA above six. D.J. Herz was amazing against Miami a couple starts ago, but they are an abysmal lineup (especially against lefties). The Padres have a deep lineup and should make it tough on him. Edwin Moscoso is one of the best over umpires in the league. Moscoso is 10-5 to the over this year and the over is 73-43 in his last 116 behind the plate. Take the over. |
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06-25-24 | Guardians v. Orioles OVER 9 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Baltimore's offense has had a couple down games in their last three games, but I expect a bounce back soon. This Orioles offense is deep and they have a ton of power. Cleveland's offense has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Steven Kwan has been setting the table and Jose Ramirez and company have been knocking in a ton of runs. The Guardians are fifth in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Guardians have scored five runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Baltimore scored 35 runs in three games right before this very recent minor slump. Logan Allen has been struggling badly this year. Cole Irvin is due for regression and his long term numbers show he is no better than a mediocre lefty. The weather matters here too. The game time temperature will be about 90 degrees and the wind will be blowing out to center at about 10 mph. That's a big boost for the over. Take the over in this one. |
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06-23-24 | Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Taking an under in a game played at Coors Field is never fun, but I'm going under this total. Kyle Freeland has similar splits at home vs. on the road through his career. He is coming back from an injury, and he's up against a Nationals team that is bottom five in the majors against lefties. Jake Irvin has been good this year. His walk rate has plummeted to 1.99 walks per nine innings and he has a 3.24 ERA on the season. The Rockies are a bottom five offense against righties. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the very best under umpires in baseball. Eddings consistently has an extremely high strikes called rate and a high strikeout/walk ratio. For example, the MLB average so far this year is around 2.65 for a strikeout/walk ratio. Eddings has a 4.09 strikeout/walk ratio. Eddings is a very pitcher friendly umpire. Dating back to 2006, the under is 12-6 in Eddings 18 games behind home plate at Coors Field. Take the under. |
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06-22-24 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* The Philadelphia Phillies will start Wheeler in this one. He's one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Wheeler almost never has a blowup game where he gets crushed. He just had that very rare game in his last outing. That was against the red hot Orioles lineup though. Arizona's lineup is excellent against lefties, but only middle of the pack against righties. Wheeler has allowed only a .284 weighted on base average against this Diamondbacks roster in a large sample size of 143 plate appearances. Tommy Henry starts for the Diamondbacks. He's a subpar lefty up against a Phillies lineup that is 5th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. They just added Trea Turner back into the lineup. The Phillies have been a top eight bullpen in baseball. The Diamondbacks are a bottom six or seven bullpen. Take Philadelphia -1.5. |
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06-21-24 | White Sox v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Quietly, Erick Fedde has been pitching extremely well this year. In his last five starts, Fedde has a 3.07 ERA and a really impressive 2.29 FIP. He has allowed only one home run in his last five starts. Jack Flaherty has a 3.01 ERA and a 2.61 FIP on the season. Flaherty hasn't allowed a single run in his last three starts combined. He has two walks and 19 strikeouts in those three starts. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average. The Tigers are 24th. The Tigers have scored a grand total of 3 runs in their last four games. All four of those games have stayed under this low total. The White Sox have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. Take the under. |
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06-19-24 | Mariners v. Guardians UNDER 8 | 0-8 | Push | 0 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball. They have the best bullpen ERA and the best bullpen FIP. It is no fluke. The Guardians have a very deep bullpen. Bibee starts for Cleveland here, and he has great strikeout stuff. He is averaging 10.39 strikeouts per nine innings so far this year. Woo starts for the Mariners. He has a 1.07 ERA and a 2.38 FIP. He is walking only 0.53 batters per nine innings. The Guardians have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last ten games. The Mariners have allowed three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. The home plate umpire for this one is Doug Eddings. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Eddings has a strikeout/walk ratio of higher than 4 this year. He is a very pitcher friendly umpire. Take the under here. |
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06-18-24 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Padres and Phillies both have pretty good pitchers going in this one, but there are several factors pointing to the over here. The weather calls for temperatures in the upper 80's at the beginning of the game. The winds are expected to be blowing out toward center field at about 11-13 mph. The ball should carry very well in Philadelphia today. Long term trends show that this is a stadium where the winds matter a lot. Both of these teams rank in the top eight in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year. The home plate umpire here is a big over umpire. Edwin Moscoso is a newer umpire, but he has consistently had a very low called strikes and strikeout/walk ratio. The over has cashed in better than 60% of his games so far. Take the over in this one. |
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06-16-24 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Washington Nationals are second to last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Both teams start a lefty in this one. Jesus Luzardo is an inconsistent lefty. There is always some risk with him because he is occasionally hit hard, but his stuff is great and this Nationals lineup is very weak against lefties. Mitchell Parker is a youngster who is off to a solid start with the Nationals. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a game all season long. He has a 3.21 ERA on the season. The Marlins have scored three runs in their last three games. Miami is averaging 2.1 runs per game in their last 12 contests. The Marlins bullpen struggled early in the year, but they have been the strength of the team in recent weeks. The Nationals bullpen is middle of the pack, but that gives them an advantage over this Miami offense. Take the under. |
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06-15-24 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
06-12-24 | Nationals v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 7-5 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Washington Nationals rank 23rd in wOBA in the last 14 days. These lineups aren't great to begin with, and they come into this one in poor form. Jake Irvin has made huge improvements this year. What has been the big key? Irvin is walking far less people than he was in previous seasons. Irvin averaged 4.02 walks per nine innings last year, but he is walking only 1.68 batters per nine innings this year. He has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.16 FIP on the season. Reese Olson has excellent stuff and the scouts loved him before he got up to the big leagues. He is coming off one of his worst starts as a big leaguer. I like his chances of bouncing back. Comerica Park is clearly a pitchers park and it is even more so when the wind is blowing in as it is expected to be during this game. The weather here calls for winds blowing in at about 8-10 mph at the start of this game. Take the under. |
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06-11-24 | Angels v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Both the LA Angels and the Arizona Diamondbacks are much stronger against left handed pitching as compared to right handed pitching. They are both up against a left handed starter here. The Angels are second in the majors against lefties. The DBacks are top ten as well. Jose Suarez is getting a rare start here for the Angels. Suarez has been hit around in the bullpen this year, and he has shown no signs of being a good starter in the past. Jordan Montgomery has a 8.46 ERA and a .444 wOBA allowed in his home starts this year. Montgomery comes into this game in poor form. Both of the bullpens are problems and when the starters go out there should be plenty more scoring chances. Take the over. |
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06-09-24 | Guardians v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians offense has really hit left handed pitching well this year. They are tied for fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Guardians are up against Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been a decent amount worse when pitching at home throughout his career. He also has a 7.36 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in his last six starts. He is inconsistent and is capable of being hit hard. Carlos Carrasco was once a good starting pitcher, but he is far past his prime and his numbers this year aren't good. Carrasco has a 6.97 ERA and a 5.88 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 2.32 home runs per nine innings in that six game span. The Marlins offense isn't good, but they are definitely much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching. Nate Tomlinson is the home plate umpire here, and the over is 30-15 in his last 45 games behind home plate. Take the over. |
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06-08-24 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8 | 1-13 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Matt Waldron has been on fire of late. Waldron has a 1.84 ERA and a 1.91 FIP in his last five starts. The knuckleball has been working very well. With a knuckeballer you always worry some about stolen bases from the opposition, but the Diamondbacks are near the bottom of all of baseball in stolen bases. Ryne Nelson has been far better away from Chase Field in his young career. Nelson has very good splits on the road. The Padres offense has been inconsistent this year. The Diamondbacks are fantastic against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching. Tripp Gibson is the home plate umpire for this game. In the last five years, the games he has been under center for have gone 78-61 to the under (56.1% unders). He has a high strikeout/walk ratio and has been consistently a pitcher friendly umpire. Petco Park is still one of the better parks in the majors for pitchers too. Take the under. |
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06-06-24 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's host the Seattle Mariners in the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Both teams start pitchers who are in good form and have a good track record against their opponent in this one. Sears has allowed a .204 batting average against the Mariners, and this Seattle offense has really been slumping of late. Woo has allowed a .125 batting average against the A's in a smaller sample size. Sears has a 4.01 ERA and a 4.12 xERA on the season. Woo has a 1.30 ERA and a 2.08 xERA in his five starts so far this year. It is a get away day game and there could be a key bat or two missing from the lineup here. The home plate umpire here is Mahrley and he is a solid strike caller which is a plus for the under as well. Take the under. |
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06-05-24 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 0-9 | Push | 0 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is better than they have shown in the last few weeks. Yes they are without Acuna, but this is still a very good offense and a deep lineup. There are several very good hitters on this team who have just been ice cold in the past month. I expect them to heat up. Nick Pivetta pitches for the Red Sox. Pivetta has a much worse ERA at home with Boston than he does on the road. Pivetta gives up too many home runs at Fenway. The Braves lineup has torched him in the past too. In a large sample size, he has allowed a .371 wOBA against the Braves. Spencer Schwellenbach is a pretty good prospect, but he has been moved up to the majors very quickly. This is a big test for him. The conditions at Fenway are great for an over. The temperature will be in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Take the over. |
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06-04-24 | Tigers v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Jack Flaherty is having a really impressive season. His ERA is a solid 3.46, but his advanced metrics paint an even better picture. Flaherty has a 2.79 FIP and a 2.03 xFIP. He has pitched into some bad luck or his ERA would be even better. Flaherty has a 2.35 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last six starts. He has just six walks and 54 strikeouts in those six outings. The Rangers offense ranks in the bottom eight in the majors in the last couple weeks. They have been struggling in general and they are striking out a lot. Dane Dunning is a decent right handed pitcher. Dunning has good numbers in a small sample against the Tigers lineup. Detroit's lineup is a slightly below average lineup according to the advanced metrics. I think this total is set too high. Take the under. |
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06-02-24 | Rangers v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Two left handed starters are on the mound in this one. The Miami Marlins are second to last in the majors with a .271 weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Texas Rangers are 26th out of 30 in wOBA against left handed pitching. Andrew Heaney and Trevor Rogers are middle of the pack lefties, but against this lineups that makes for a pretty good matchup. Both Heaney and Rogers have very good numbers against the opposing offense in a small sample size. The Rangers have been involved in a lot of low scoring games of late. The Rangers have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under this total. The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. Take the under here. |
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06-01-24 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have underachieved on offense all season. They fired their hitting coach Friday and switched things up a bit. Now, they take on the LA Angels and Reid Detmers on Saturday. Detmers has been absolutely crushed by the Mariners to the tune of a .431 weighted on base average in 77 plate appearances. Detmers is in terrible form of late too. He has a 9.49 ERA in his last five starts. The Mariners are better against lefties than right handed pitching. The Angels offense has been better than expected without Mike Trout. The Angels also have one of the very worst bullpens in the majors. That has led to a lot of higher scoring games. Miller starts for the Mariners here and he has a poor 5.22 ERA in his last five starts. The home plate umpire here is Mark Wegner. Wegner has one of the five lowest strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the last five years. He is a hitter friendly umpire. Take the over. |
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05-31-24 | Nationals v. Guardians -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Guardians -1.5* Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst left handed starters in baseball for the last couple years. Corbin started a bit better this year, but he has tailed off again of late. Corbin has a 6.12 ERA on the season, and in his last three starts he has 7 walks and 7 strikeouts. The Cleveland Guardians are 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties at .335. The Guardians are second in ISO against lefties, so they have a lot of power. Corbin is well known for giving up a lot of home runs. Tanner Bibee is a good starter and he's backed by the bullpen that has been the best bullpen in baseball so far this year. Washington's bullpen is middle of the pack. Take Cleveland -1.5. |
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05-29-24 | Dodgers v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has cooled off a bit lately. This is still a top two or three offense in the majors at the very worst. They might still be the best. I expect them to bounce back sooner rather than later. David Peterson will come back from the injured list to start this game against the Dodgers. Peterson has allowed a .406 weighted on base average against this Dodgers lineup in his career. It's a very tough ask for him to come back after a long time and have success immediately against this group. James Paxton is due for more regression to the mean. Paxton has 28 walks and 28 strikeouts on the season. He has a 3.49 ERA and a 5.56 FIP. He is 35.5 years old and he can't keep up the 85% strand rate he currently has. The Mets have a .425 wOBA against Paxton in his career. Both bullpens are bottom ten in the league in the last two weeks. Take the over here. |
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05-28-24 | Yankees v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The LA Angels have drastic splits this year on offense. The Angels are 17th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 4th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Yankees are also first in the majors in wOBA in road games. Nestor Cortes is a good lefty, but the Angels have been hitting lefties well and I think their power could make some noise here. Griffin Canning has pitched poorly especially of late for the Angels. In his last five starts, Canning has 14 walks and 16 strikeouts. He has a 2.93 ERA in those games, but his FIP is 5.47. He is stranded nearly ever runner on base. In the long run that isn't sustainable. The Angels bullpen is terrible and the Yankees should get chances against them too. I like the matchups in this one. Take the over. |
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05-26-24 | Phillies v. Rockies UNDER 10 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez is having a special season. Suarez has a 1.36 ERA and his expected ERA is an impressive 2.30. Suarez has had excellent control this year and he has been great at not giving up big innings. The Rockies lineup is much weaker this year than it has been in the past. Colorado's current lineup has really struggled against Suarez too. The Rockies lineup has a very low .241 weighted on base average against Suarez. Cal Quantrill isn't a great pitcher, but he does a nice job mixing up his pitches and keeping batters guessing. Quantrill has a 3.59 ERA and a 3.88 expected ERA. He has a solid 3.91 ERA when pitching at home this year. Coors Field unders are tough, but the weather is better than normal this time of the year. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 15 mph during this game. Take the under. |
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05-25-24 | Yankees v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees have held opponents to two runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. The Yankees have good starting pitching as well as a deep bullpen. The San Diego Padres offense is very streaky. They have struggled in a lot of games of late. The Padres have been held scoreless in 4 of their last 9 contests. Dylan Cease has elite stuff and is capable of shutting down good lineups. He does have some blowup potential, but it is a big plus for him that Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Marcus Stroman has been consistently pitching well this season, and the bullpen is in good shape heading into this one. Doug Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in my umpire database over the last five years. Eddings has a ridiculously high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.96 so far this season. He's a clear positive for the under. Take the under here. |
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05-24-24 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 10 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Great American Ballpark is a top three hitters park in the majors, especially when it is warm in Cincinnati. The game time temperature is set to be 80 degrees. Graham Ashcraft has drastic splits in his career. Ashcraft is far worse when pitching at GABP. He has a 3.93 ERA on the road in his career, but his home ERA is all the way up at 5.46. Ashcraft also has an ERA of 6.10 in May in his career. He has been far worse in the first half of the season than he has in the second half. James Paxton has a 2.84 ERA and a 5.14 FIP. He also has a 5.55 expected ERA. He has a .242 batting average on balls in play allowed. He also has stranded 87% of runners on base. Neither of those are sustainable in the long run. The Dodgers have the best offense in baseball. I expect them to score a lot on Ashcraft and the Reds bullpen. The Reds should do enough here in good hitting conditions at home. Take the over. |
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05-22-24 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox have been dreadful offensively on the season as a whole, but they are up to 19th in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Blue Jays are a better offense than they have shown this year. They have some solid hitters who have underachieved to this point. These two teams are last and second to last in batting average on balls in play so far this year. They are due for some positive regression in the weeks to come. Nastrini starts for the White Sox and he has been hit really hard in both Triple A and his two starts in the majors this year. Nastrini has a 7.88 ERA in two big league starts this year. In Triple A Nastrini has a 5.83 ERA and a 6.39 FIP in six starts. I have always taken the approach that if guys struggle to get outs in Triple A, I can't assume that they will be good right away in the majors. Bassitt starts for the Blue Jays. He has a 5.03 ERA and a 5.00 expected ERA this year. He's 35 years old and is likely past his prime as a starting pitcher. Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom three in the majors in FIP. Take the over. |
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05-21-24 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros lineup has heated up a lot of late. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in four of their last eight games. Houston is now third in the majors in weighted on base average. The Astros go up against Griffin Canning here. Canning has allowed a terrible .408 wOBA against this Astros lineup in his career. I think they'll get to him again here. The Angels bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the league as well. Houston should have scoring opportunities all throughout this game. Cristian Javier has a 3.23 ERA but a 4.29 FIP so far this year. He has allowed a batting average on balls in play of only .226 which should regress to the mean. The Angels are 12th in the majors in wOBA. Take the over here. |
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05-19-24 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 7.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball. They are also first in FIP and SIERA as a bullpen. They are a tremendous bullpen. The Minnesota Twins bullpen is above average in ERA and third in the majors in SIERA. Tanner Bibee is an above average starter who has good swing and miss stuff. The Twins are 18th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Guardians are 24th in wOBA against right handed pitching on the year thus far. Paddack is certainly not an elite pitcher, but he has been pretty solid most of this year. Minnesota is 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Cleveland is 28th in wOBA on offense in the last 14 days. The wind is expected to be blowing in for this one and that matters quite a bit in Cleveland. Take the under. |
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05-17-24 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best offense in the majors. The Dodgers have a .342 weighted on base average on the season. With a trio of Mookie Betts, Shoehei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman leading the way the Dodgers have huge upside as an offense. Frankie Montas pitches for the Reds here. Montas has been shelled by this Dodgers lineup. In 63 plate appearances, the Dodgers have a whopping ..534 wOBA against Montas. Montas is a below average right handed pitcher. James Paxton pitches for the Dodgers here. Paxton has a 2.58 ERA on the year, but he has a FIP of 4.86 and an expected ERA of 5.89. Paxton has stranded 86.3% of runners on base this year, and that number will regress over time. The Reds offense is quite a bit better against left handed pitching, and I think they'll get their scoring chances in this one too. Take the over here. |
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05-15-24 | Cardinals v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cardinals offense disappointed for a very long time, but they have come to life of late. St. Louis is 28th on the year in weighted on base average, but they are 9th in the last week alone. The Cardinals have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series against the Angels. The Angels have seen 4 of their last 6 games get to at least 12 runs. Griffin Canning has a 5.75 ERA on the year and a expected ERA and FIP of about 5. Lance Lynn is well past his prime, and this Angels lineup has a .370 wOBA against him. The Angels bullpen has been terrible. They have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.21. St. Louis is a middle of the pack bullpen. Larry Vanover is a bit of an over umpire through the years so that is a plus as well. Take the over. |
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05-14-24 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 17 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season thus far. They are dead last in the majors in FIP allowed so far this year. Aaron Civale starts this game, and he has struggled badly this season. Civale has failed to complete 5 innings pitched in four straight starts. He has a 5.88 ERA on the season thus far. Nick Pivetta has a career 4.85 ERA pitching at Fenway Park. Pivetta also has a terrible 5.35 ERA in night games in his career (3.84 ERA in day games). This one will be under the lights at Fenway. The wind is expected to be blowing straight out at Fenway at about 12 mph at the time of the first pitch in this one. Overs at Fenway Park with the wind blowing out at least 8 mph have an ROI of 11.1% since 2006. I think both offenses will have a lot of scoring opportunities in this one. Take the over. |
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05-13-24 | Phillies -113 v. Mets | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Phillies* The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball. They are 13-3 in their last 16 games. Philadelphia is second in the majors in weighted on base average. They have a better wOBA against lefties than they do against righties. The Mets are 13th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, but they are only 24th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Christopher Sanchez was solid last year, and he has been great this season. Sanchez has a 3.22 ERA and a 2.88 FIP on the season. Sean Manaea has been crushed in limited time against this Phillies lineup. Nick Castellanos has 5 hits in 8 at bats against him including two home runs. Whit Merrfield has hit him hard too. Manaea has a .469 batting average allowed in 36 plate appearances against the Phillies. I'll lay the very short price with the road teams. Take Philadelphia. |
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05-12-24 | Diamondbacks v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 9-2 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has proven himself as one of the better right handed starting pitchers in the league. Gallen has really good command of multiple pitches, and he has the strikeout pitch that you need in today's baseball. Dean Kremer has consistently started the season terribly in March and April, but he isn't a bad pitcher overall. Kremer has a good career ERA in the month of May. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season throwing six innings of shutout baseball against the Reds. He has a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is consistently a very good under umpire. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio have been excellent for pitchers many years in a row now. Relatively cool temperatures and a slight breeze in help a bit too. Take the under. |
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05-11-24 | Nationals v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox meet at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. It will be a cool and somewhat breezy day in Boston for this one. A temperature of about 54 degrees with winds blowing in at 9 or 10 mph from right field toward home plate. These conditions have been great to under bettors in the long run at Fenway. This is one of the parks where the winds matter the very most. On cool days where the ball doesn't travel as well, this is a particularly strong angle. Irvin and Criswell have both pitched well so far this year. They are backed by bullpens that both rank top seven in the majors in FIP. These two offenses are mediocre at this point. The Red Sox have seen 8 of their last 9 games stay under this total. Take the under. |
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05-10-24 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best offense in the majors. They are first in the majors in weighted on base average by a mile. The Dodgers are first with a wOBA of .355. The Padres are a solid eighth, but are down at a .323 wOBA. Tyler Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in the majors when he is healthy. Glasnow has a 2.70 ERA and a 2.46 FIP on the year. He has a 1.29 ERA and a 0.97 FIP in his last three starts. Glasnow has a fantastic .214 wOBA allowed against this Padres lineup in a small sample size. Michael King has a 4.29 ERA and a 5.71 FIP on the season thus far. He has allowed 10 home runs in just 42 innings pitched. The Dodgers lineup has crushed King in the past. King has a .442 wOBA allowed in 66 plate appearances against this current Dodgers lineup. The Padres are a decent team (20-20 so far), but the Dodgers have the most talented roster in the majors. Take the Dodgers -1.5. |
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05-08-24 | Marlins v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The LA Dodgers underperformed early in the season, but they have been playing great baseball of late. The Dodgers have won four games in a row by at least 3 runs. The Marlins have lost four of their last five by 2 runs or more. The Marlins have lost their four games by a combined 27 runs. I waited to see the Dodgers lineup for this game, and the lineup has Betts and Ohtani both in the lineup. Freddie Freeman is also in the lineup. Having those three as the top three batters in a lineup is scary for opposing pitchers. Weathers is a average or below average lefty for the Marlins. The Dodgers have the number one offense in the majors. Take the Dodgers -1.5. |
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05-07-24 | Blue Jays v. Phillies -116 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Toronto Blue Jays are 16-19 on the season. Toronto starts Jose Berrios who has good overall numbers, but the advanced metrics show he is due for regression to the mean. Berrios has a 1.44 ERA but a 4.87 xERA. He has a 4.01 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP. He has stranded 96.6% of runners that have gotten on base. His career average is stranded 73.3% of runners on base. Berrios has a long history of being far better at home than on the road too. The Phillies lineup has a tremendous .367 weighted on base average against Berrios in his career. Christopher Sanchez has a 3.68 ERA and a 2.94 FIP on the year. Sanchez has been consistently very good, and his career numbers at home are much better than on the road. Sanchez has a career wOBA allowed of just .302 at home. The Phillies have won 10 games in a row at home. At this price, I'm taking Philadelphia. |
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05-05-24 | Rockies v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Colorado Rockies both rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average. These are two weak offenses. Colorado has consistently been one of the worst offenses away from Coors Field in the last few years, and this Rockies lineup has less depth than most of their teams in recent seasons. The Pirates are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Feltner is only a mediocre pitcher, but the Pirates have been struggling badly at the plate. Pittsburgh's pitching staff has been better than expected. The bullpen is a strong point for the Pirates. Falter has been pitching pretty well and I like his chances of pitching well in this matchup. The Pirates have played 8 straight games that have stayed under this total. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He is a top three under umpire in the majors. He consistently has very high strikeout/walk ratios. Take the under. |
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05-04-24 | Tigers v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers in an early Saturday showdown here. Clarke Schmidt has big splits on first/second half of the season. He is much better in the early part of the season. The same is true for Casey Mize. Schmidt has been much better pitching at home. Mize is actually better in his young career on the road. The Tigers have seen only three of their last nine games go above this total. Four of the Yankees last five games have finished with six runs or fewer. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 11 mph from right center field during this game. The wind does play a role in games at this stadium. Ryan Blakeney is a strike caller behind the plate. He has a strikeout/walk ratio this year of an insanely high 4.42. He is a plus for the under. Take the under. |
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05-03-24 | Marlins v. A's UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are last in the majors in weighted on base average on the road at just .263. The A's are bottom five in the majors in wOBA at home, where they have been much worse offensively than on the road. Miami is also significantly worse against lefties than right handed pitchers. J.P. Sears is a bit inconsistent, but he's capable of shutting down some lineups. The Marlins lineup has been shut out many times this year. The A's have a really good bullpen and a great closer. Oakland has seen 7 of its last 9 games finish at 7 total runs or fewer. I think we see another low scoring contest here. Take the under. |
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05-01-24 | Reds v. Padres OVER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres have scored 6 runs in two of their last three games. The Cincinnati Reds have scored 20 runs in their last four contests. I think this total of just 8 is set too low. Graham Ashcraft has drastic splits between the first half of the season and the second half of the season during his career. He has an ERA of 5.35 in the first half of the season. He has an ERA of 3.94 in the second half of the season. Joe Musgrove has a 6.94 ERA and a 6.59 FIP on the season so far. Musgrove is giving up a bunch of hard contact, and his home run rate allowed is through the roof. The Reds have some power hitters and Elly De La Cruz is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball right now. Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here and he is a top three over umpire in baseball. He consistently has low strikes called percentages and low strikeout/walk numbers. Take the over. |
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04-30-24 | Phillies -134 v. Angels | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Los Angeles Angels had a preseason season win total of 72.5. The Angels are 11-18 so far this year and they are 4-9 at home. The Phillies had a season win total of 89.5. The Phillies are 9-5 on the road so far this year. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Tyler Anderson has a sparkling 1.78 ERA, but a high 4.89 FIP and a 5.09 xFIP on the season. Anderson has stranded a whopping 94.9% of runners on base so far this season. He has allowed opponents to have a batting average on balls in play of only .181 on the season. There is regression coming for Anderson. In his career, Anderson has a .490 weighted on base average allowed against this Phillies lineup. Bryce Harper is 6/10 against him with 3 home runs and 3 doubles. The lineup in general has hit him hard. Spencer Turnbull has a 1.33 ERA and a solid 3.14 FIP on the season. He has allowed one run or fewer in four of his five starts this season. The Angels are a below average lineup. The Phillies bullpen is 7th in the majors in FIP. The Angels are 27th. I'll lay the price with the road team. Take Philadelphia. |
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04-28-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Logan Gilbert has a 1.87 ERA so far this year. Gilbert is a guy I feel is quite underrated. He pounds the strike zone and does a pretty good job inducing soft contact. Gilbert has a good track record against the Diamondbacks in a small sample size. He has a 1.049 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. He has been slightly better in day games than night games as well. Brandon Pfaadt is a mediocre right handed pitcher. This is a pitcher's park though, and the Mariners offense hasn't been very good. The Diamondbacks offense is far better against lefties than right handed pitching. Bill Miller is a top two or three under umpire in all of baseball. He consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and his strikes called percentage in general is always high. Take the under here. |
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04-28-24 | Twins v. Angels UNDER 8 | 11-5 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Pablo Lopez has a 4.39 ERA but a solid 3.57 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP on the season thus far. Lopez has a tremendous history against this Angels lineup. The Angels lineup has a .091 average and a .131 weighted on base average against Lopez in 48 plate appearances. Reid Detmers has consistently been much better in the first half of the season than the second half throughout his career. He has been great all year up until a shaky start last time out against the Orioles. Baltimore has been hitting extremely well so I won't make too much of that. Detmers has good swing and miss stuff. Dan Merzel is the umpire here and he has a very high strikeout percentage in his career. The under is 5-1 in his 6 games behind the plate this year. Take the under. |
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04-27-24 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8 | 0-7 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have been red hot on offense of late. They started slow against lefties, but in the last couple weeks no one in the majors has a batter weighted on base average against lefties than Baltimore. The Orioles have a deep lineup, and they can put up runs in bunches. The Athletics aren't good offensively, but they are better against lefties than right handed pitching. Cole Irvin is a below average left handed pitcher, and Oakland should get chances in this one. J.P. Sears isn't a bad pitcher, but he's backed by a thin bullpen, and he is up against a great lineup. The wind is blowing out for this one and we have a low total at just 8. Take the over. |
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04-24-24 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Brewers take on the Pirates Wednesday night in an NL Central clash. Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. Wegner is one of the two or three best over umpires in the majors. The over is 50-31 in his last 81 games behind home plate. In my umpire database, it consistently shows Wegner as having one of the lowest strikes called percentages and the lowest walk/strikeout ratio of long term umpires. Both Wilson and Fleming have plenty of flaws as starters, and these bullpens are only middle of the pack. The Brewers offense has been top 8 in the majors so far this year. The Pirates lineup has a .403 weighted on base average against Wilson in 40 plate appearances. Take the over here. |
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04-23-24 | Mariners -105 v. Rangers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners start Logan Gilbert in this one. Gilbert is a guy I've always been high on because of his elite control and solid consistency. Gilbert has a 2.33 ERA and a 3.40 FIP on the season thus far. He has allowed one run in three of his four starts this season. Dane Dunning has 3.91 ERA and a high 6.18 FIP on the season this year. Opposing hitters have a batting average on balls in play of just .189 so Dunning has been very fortunate so far this year. Gilbert has been stellar against the Rangers in his career. The Rangers lineup has a poor .290 weighted on base average against him in 121 plate appearances. The opposite has been true with Dunning against the Mariners. Dunning has allowed the Mariners lineup to have a very high .360 wOBA in 105 plate appearances. Take Seattle. |
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04-22-24 | Orioles v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 103 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Reid Detmers has a 1.19 ERA and a 1.62 FIP through four starts so far this season. Detmers has also held this Orioles lineup to a .161 batting average in 69 plate appearances. The Orioles are a middle of the road lineup so far this year against left handed pitching. Albert Suarez pitches for the Orioles here, and the Angels lineup lacks depth and is struggling. They have scored one run or fewer in three of their last four games. Mike Trout is excellent, but there are a lot of guys in this lineup that are hard to trust. With Detmers looking elite and the Angels offense struggling, I think this total is a little too high. Take the under. |
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04-20-24 | Orioles v. Royals UNDER 8 | 9-7 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Cole Ragans is an up and coming very good starting pitcher for the Royals. Ragans has a 1.93 ERA and a stellar 2.30 FIP in four starts so far this year. He has pitched a shutout in two of his last three starts. The Orioles are definitely a good offense, but they are just 17th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Ragans should hold his own here against the O's. Corbin Burnes has proven himself as an excellent starter. Burnes throws strikes and gets ahead in the count. He is particularly helped by umpires who give him the corner. Ryan Blakeney is a top six or eight under umpire in the majors. His strikeout rate is top ten in the majors and he carries one of the four lowest OBP's for batters in his games in the last five years. Cool temperatures and winds blowing in help this one too. Take the under. |
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04-17-24 | Cardinals v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Paul Blackburn starts here for the Oakland A's. Blackburn has a history of starting the season very strong. He has done exactly that this season. Blackburn hasn't allowed an earned run so far this season in three starts. Blackburn has been slightly better in day games than night games in his career too. Steven Matz has drastic splits in his day/night starts. Matz has a 1.41 WHIP in his night starts, but an impressive 1.17 WHIP in his day starts. Matz has a 3.40 ERA in his career in day starts. The A's are bottom eight in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals are bottom ten in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Take the under. |
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04-16-24 | Padres -119 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres are one of the best lineups in baseball against left handed pitching. Both Tatis and Machado are elite against left handed pitching, and they have several other smaller names who are surprisingly good against lefties. Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't a really good one by any means. Miley had a 4.65 FIP last year, and he had a .091 BABIP allowed (very lucky) in his first start this year. Dylan Cease is a bit inconsistent, but he has far better stuff and a much higher upside than Miley. The Brewers lineup has an extremely high batting average on balls in play so far this year, and I think they are due for regression. With Devin Williams out, I see these two bullpens as pretty close to the same level. The Padres offense is great in this split and they have the better starter. Take San Diego. |
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04-14-24 | Cubs v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Luis Castillo is off to a slow start, but his advanced metrics suggest he is due for some major positive regression. Castillo has a 6.89 ERA, but he has a 3.38 FIP and 3.19 xFIP on the season thus far. Castillo has pitched tremendously against this Cubs lineup in his career too. The Cubs lineup here has a poor .244 average and .299 weighted on base average against him in 99 plate appearances. Javier Assad has a 1.64 ERA in his first two starts, and he's going up agianst a Seattle lineup that ranks dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He's a strike caller and one of the best under umpires in the majors. He consistently has very high strikeout/walk rate. Take the under here. |
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04-13-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Marlins | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Braves -1.5* The Atlanta Braves have what I believe is the second most talented roster in the majors. They have the best lineup in baseball. Atlanta has been absolutely crushing right handed pitching this year. Atlanta has a .414 wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year. Miami is 2-12 on the year. If you had taken the Marlins opponent on the run line this year you would be a staggering 10-4 despite a lot of plus money prices on those numbers. Miami is dead last by a mile in weighted on base average against lefties. The Marlins have a .216 wOBA against lefties. No other team in the majors is lower than .244. Chris Sale isn't what he once was, but he is still a solid lefty. The Marlins should struggle against him. Max Meyer has a high upside, but he hasn't consistently been able to get out MLB hitters yet. This is a tough assignment for him. Take Atlanta -1.5. |
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04-10-24 | Diamondbacks -133 v. Rockies | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on DBacks ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks had a season win total of 84.5 wins or so for this year. The Colorado Rockies had a season win total of 59.5 wins or so heading into the season. Arizona has a really good lineup against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this year. They are up against Austin Gomber here. Gomber has been smashed by this DBacks lineup in the past. They have a .504 weighted on base average against Gomber in 91 plate appearances. Gomber's worst month of the season historically has been the first month of the year, and it isn't very close. He has an ERA over 6 in the first month of the season. The Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball, and the Dbacks are laying a short enough price here for me to take the road team. Take Arizona. |
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04-05-24 | Rays -1.5 v. Rockies | 7-10 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Rays -1.5* The Tampa Bay Rays are a significantly better team than the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies will have one of the worst records in all of baseball this year. Tampa Bay is a team who has playoff hopes. Austin Gomber had a 7.05 ERA last year in his outings at Coors Field. He had an atrocious 1.593 WHIP. The Rays should hit him hard here in a game where the wind is blowing out significantly toward center field. Zack Littell has potential and he is up against a weak lineup. He'll likely get hit around some, but the bullpen coming in after him is significantly stronger than the bullpen the Rockies bullpen. Take Tampa Bay -1.5. |
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04-03-24 | Rangers +107 v. Rays | 4-1 | Win | 107 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Texas Rangers have Nathan Eovaldi on the mound for this one. Eovaldi has been an underrated starter for much of his career. Eovaldi has a long great history against this Rays lineup too. Eovaldi has a sparkling .167 batting average and .212 weighted on base average allowed against the Rays. The sample size is solid too with 112 plate appearances. Eovaldi has a good history in the first month of the season in general also. Aaron Civale has a 5.83 ERA in six starts in Tampa Bay. This Rangers lineup is still very solid, and I expect them to be especially good against right handed pitching. At a plus money price, I like the Rangers here with a very good starting pitcher on the mound. Take Texas. |
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04-02-24 | Guardians +106 v. Mariners | 5-2 | Win | 106 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Cleveland Guardians start Shane Bieber tonight. Bieber's velocity has been up in spring training and in his opener. Bieber was still good last year, but if he keeps that velocity gain he could bounce back up toward his stats from 2 and 3 years ago which were top notch. In his career, Bieber has shut down the Mariners. The Mariners lineup has a terrible .238 weighted on base average and a 29.7% strikeout rate against Bieber in his career. Luis Castillo hasn't been great in the first couple months of the season in his career. He often takes some time to get into a rhythm. The Guardians have a .328 wOBA against Castillo. At plus money, I'll take Cleveland here. |
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03-30-24 | Twins -118 v. Royals | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Twins ML* Joe Ryan is clearly an above average starting pitcher. Ryan has consistently been a very fast starter too. Ryan has an 8-1 record and a sparkling 2.13 ERA and an amazing 0.764 WHIP in March/April in his career. Ryan has been great against this Kansas City lineup too. He has a .153 batting average allowed and a .223 wOBA allowed in 79 plate appearances against the Royals. I like this matchup for Ryan. Seth Lugo will go up against a Twins lineup that is deep. Minnesota is very good against right handed pitching. The Twins also have a big bullpen advantage against this Royals team. I'll lay the short price. Take Minnesota. |
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03-28-24 | Twins -114 v. Royals | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins have the best and deepest roster in the American League Central. Pablo Lopez has been fantastic in recent seasons, and he is known to get off to fast starts to the season. The Twins are better against right handed pitching which is why this number is as cheap as it is, but I think they are worth the small lay here. Cole Ragans is a good pitcher and I think he'll get quite a few strikeouts. Still, he does give up hard contact, and he is prone to a big inning occasionally. The Royals bullpen is several notches worse than the Twins bullpen (even with the Twins injuries). Favorites have done well on Opening Day in the past decade in Major League Baseball. Here's the best team in the AL Central laying a small price against a Royals team that still has plenty of holes. Take Minnesota. |
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10-20-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been on fire in the postseason. They were quieted for one game yesterday, but I think they'll get going again here. Mantiply is expected to start what is basically a bullpen game. Ryne Nelson or Slade Cecconi will likely see some innings here as well. The DBacks bullpen is one of their biggest weaknesses. Philadelphia should get traffic on the bases and take advantage of those opportunities here. Christopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies. Sanchez was good this year, but he hasn't pitched since September 30th. He is a young pitcher and pitchers are creatures of habit. This is a really tough spot to put him in. Arizona was much better offensively at home this season. Chase Field's roof is expected to be open for this game with the later start. The hot weather with the roof open here really helps the ball carry well. I think this will be a higher scoring contest. Take the over. |
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10-11-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Lance Lynn had a 5.73 ERA and a 5.53 FIP this season. Lynn is 36 years old and is far past his prime. He is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings this year. Lynn has a FIP of 6.16 since pitching as a Dodger. This year Lynn has a wOBA allowed of .368 in road starts. Brandon Pfaadt had a 5.72 ERA and a 5.18 FIP on the season. Pfaadt started the playoff opener in Milwaukee too and pitched just 2.2 innings and allowed 7 hits and 3 runs. Pfaadt has a 6.46 ERA and a .379 wOBA allowed at home this year. The Dodgers lineup has been quiet in the first two games of this series, but this Dodgers lineup is still stacked. They are a top three lineup in baseball. The Dodgers have a stellar .470 wOBA against Pfaadt. Chase Field is a good hitters park. The roof is likely to be open here based on the moderate weather in Arizona for this one. That is a positive for runs to be scored. Take the over. |
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10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8 | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros on Tuesday afternoon. This series is tied up at 1-1. Minnesota's Target Field was slightly below average in run scoring according to MLB Park Factors. Minnesota starts Sonny Gray in this game. Gray has been consistently very good this season. Gray has pitched 26.1 innings this year and has a 2.39 ERA in the postseason. Cristian Javier wasn't very good most of this season, but he pitched his best baseball of the season in the last three starts of the regular season. Javier has a great postseason history too. Javier has thrown 32.2 innings and has a 2.20 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in the postseason. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this game. He is a pitcher's best friend. He had a strikeout/walk ratio of an extremely high 3.66 this season. Take the under here. |
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10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies start Zack Wheeler in this Wild Card contest. Wheeler has a great 2.78 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP in six career postseason starts. He is a very consistent pitcher who has thrown his best late in the season on an annual basis. Miami's offense is much better against lefties than righties, and this is a tough matchup for them. Jesus Luzardo has electric stuff. He can occasionally give up a big inning, but he enters this game in good form. Luzardo has a 2.61 ERA and a 2.34 FIP in his last seven starts of the season. The Marlins lineup has a .246 average and .300 wOBA against Wheeler in 153 plate appearances. The Phillies lineup has only a .211 average and a ..271 wOBA against Luzardo in 83 plate appearances. Stu Scheurwater is the umpire here and the under is 112-89 in his career behind home plate. He had a strikeout/walk ratio of above 3 (very high) this season. He is a net positive for the under. Take the under. |
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09-29-23 | Padres v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox offense has been terrible against right handed pitching all season. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (.292) against right handed pitching this season. Chicago is trotting out a really weak lineup right now, and they are easily last in wOBA for the past 30 days overall as well (.281 wOBA). The San Diego Padres start Nick Martinez here. Martinez is at least an average right handed pitcher. He has been pitching well of late. I like his chances of slowing down the White Sox offense. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox here. Cease still has elite stuff, but he has been inconsistent this year. Cease has been very good in his last three starts. He has a 1.96 ERA and a 2.00 FIP in his last three starts. Cease now faces a Padres team that won't make the playoffs and has been inconsistent all year offensively. The Padres have seen 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. The White Sox have seen 8 of their last 10 games stay under this total. Take the under. |
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09-27-23 | Pirates +125 v. Phillies | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-5 in their last 13 games so they have been battling hard to the finish. They catch the Philadelphia Phillies in a bad spot here. Philadelphia clinched the top NL Wild Card spot last night They will host the first Wild Card game. The Phillies now have nothing to play for in the next few regular season games. The day after clinching we regularly see some very weak lineups put on the card. Some call it the hangover lineup in a spot like this. I think we'll see multiple big names out of the lineup. Johan Oviedo has a 2.23 ERA in his last six starts. He is pitching his best late in the season. I'll take the plus money price on the road team here. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-20-23 | Orioles +105 v. Astros | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Orioles ML* The Baltimore Orioles start Kyle Bradish here. Bradish has been fantastic this year. He is pitching his best baseball late in the season too. Bradish has a 2.92 ERA and a 2.29 FIP in his last six starts. On the season, Bradish has a tremendous 0.98 WHIP. Cristian Javier has been a big disappointment this year, and he has been at his worst of late. Javier has a 6.99 ERA in his last 14 starts and his FIP is just 6.46 so it has been no fluke. He has just been bad. The Orioles are 41-21 since the All Star Break and they have the second best record in baseball. The Astros are clearly a very good team, but they have a big starting pitching disadvantage here. The Astros bullpen is also worn out and the Orioles have a great bullpen. Take Baltimore here. |
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09-18-23 | Guardians -116 v. Royals | 4-6 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cleveland ML* The Kansas City Royals have the second worst record in baseball. Kansas City is 48-102 on the season, and the Royals have been just 28-47 on their home field. Brady Singer has been an extremely streaky pitcher this year. He was terrible early in the year. Singer had a stretch for a while in the middle of the year where he was solid. He has been bad again of late. Singer has a 10.00 ERA and a 7.15 FIP in his last four starts. The Cleveland lineup has hit him hard in the past. He has allowed a very high .400 weighted on base average against this Guardians lineup. Cal Quantrill has come back from injury and thrown the ball very well. Quantrill has thrown 18 innings in three starts and he has allowed just three runs total in those starts since coming back from the injured list. Quantrill has held this Royals lineup to a .286 wOBA in his career. This is an early start time and I like the Guardians to pick up a win here. Take Cleveland. |
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09-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 1-11 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Kelly vs. Senga is a sneaky good pitching matchup here. Senga has a 2.52 ERA at home this year. Senga has a 2.72 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has allowed only 4 home runs in those 10 starts. Senga does a good job keeping traffic off the bases. Kelly has been fantastic in three of his last four starts. He has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.84 FIP in those four starts. Kelly's one poor start during that time was against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers offense makes a lot of pitchers look bad. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller is the most consistent under umpire in the majors. His strikes called percentage this year is at a ridiculously high 66.22%. His strikeout/walk ratio is at an almost unheard of 3.80. Take the under in this one. |
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09-12-23 | Guardians +162 v. Giants | 3-1 | Win | 162 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cleveland ML* The Cleveland Guardians are too large of an underdog for me to pass up here. The San Francisco Giants have not played very well over the last couple months. The Giants still have a pretty weak lineup and rely on winning lower scoring close games often. Sean Manaea has a 4.21 ERA and a 4.17 FIP in the second half of the season. He's at best a mediocre left handed pitcher. Cal Quantrill has pitched great in his two games back from the injured list. Quantrill has allowed just 2 runs in 12 innings pitched in those last two contests. The price has gotten out of hand here. The Giants should be favored, but not by this much. Take Cleveland. |
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09-11-23 | Cubs -1.5 v. Rockies | 5-4 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cubs -1.5* The Chicago Cubs have a lot to play for as they are in the thick of the playoff battle in the National League. The Cubs still have a chance to win the NL Central, and if they don't they still have a good shot at a Wild Card spot. Jordan Wicks is one of the Chicago Cubs top prospects. He has pitched like it in his first three starts too. Wicks has allowed just 4 runs total in 16 and 2/3 innings pitched. He has good control and several plus pitches. Kyle Freeland starts here for the Rockies. Freeland has a 5.83 ERA and a 6.07 FIP in his last 12 starts. The Cubs have crushed Freeland in the past too. This Cubs lineup has a .431 weighted on base average against Freeland in 73 plate appearances. The Rockies have the worst offensive numbers in the majors in the past 30 days. This inexperienced lineup is really struggling. Take Chicago -1.5. |
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09-08-23 | White Sox v. Tigers -124 | 6-0 | Loss | -124 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* Which team has the worst record in baseball since the MLB All Star Break? It's the Chicago White Sox. They are 16-36 since the break, and the White Sox have been awful on the road all year (26-46). This is a team that has struggled badly against right handed pitching all year too. Reese Olson has pitched great in a small sample size against the White Sox. In 39 plate appearances, the White Sox hitters have a very low .131 wOBA. Olson has good swing and miss stuff. Mike Clevinger has been torched by this Tigers lineup. He has allowed a .383 wOBA in 72 plate appearances. He's backed by a weak bullpen that has been used heavily of late. The Tigers haven't been great by any means, but they are 25-26 since the break, and they don't appear to have shut it down for the season. Take Detroit. |
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09-06-23 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are still both good pitchers, but both of them are certainly past their prime. This isn't the pitching matchup that it would have been a few years ago. Justin Verlander has a 3.34 ERA and a 4.04 FIP on the season. Max Scherzer has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.14 FIP. These two offenses are both top five in the majors in all major categories for the year. Houston has been on fire offensively of late. They have scored 27 runs in the first two games of this series. Both bullpens have been shaky of late, and their depth isn't what it was earlier in the season. There is a very real chance for big innings late here even if the starters pitch well. Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best over umpires in baseball. Wegner consistently has a low strikes called percentage and a low strikeout/walk ratio. He can really frustrate pitchers and help the hitter. Take the over here. |
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09-04-23 | Astros +101 v. Rangers | 13-6 | Win | 101 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Houston is much healthier than they were for much of the season, and the Astros offense is deep and dangerous. Houston is coming off a sweep at the hands of the Yankees in a disappointing series. They are tied with the Rangers at one game back of the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. Houston is a veteran team and I trust them to respond well to adversity. Andrew Heaney is an average or slightly below average left handed pitcher. In a large sample size of 174 plate appearances, the Astros lineup has a .355 wOBA against Heaney. They have hit him very well. J.P. France has been solid this year, and the Rangers offense has been inconsistent of late. France has a sparkling 2.04 ERA away from home this year. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Take Houston. |
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09-01-23 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* This is a meeting of the number one and number two offenses in baseball for the season based on weighted on base average (wOBA). This is a low total considering how good both of these offenses are and how consistently they have performed. Max Fried is a good pitcher, but he'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that has been crushing lefties in the last month. Fried has five starts back from injury and his ERA is 3.58. In four of those five games he has faced a weak offense. Julio Urias has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.43 FIP this season. The Braves are easily first in the majors against left handed pitching. Atlanta is very good against righties too, but they are even better against lefties. Both lineups are deep and these pitchers should have to work with a lot of runners on base here. Take the over. |
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08-30-23 | Nationals v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 0-7 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Patrick Corbin here. Corbin isn't a good left handed pitcher anymore. He is prone to both the long ball and being quite wild. The Toronto Blue Jays are 7th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. It is a tough matchup for Corbin. The Blue Jays scoring outputs have been relatively low in the last 14 days, but their batting average on balls in play has been an abysmal .244. That will regress positively toward the mean. Corbin is giving up a ton of hard contact too. Chris Bassitt is a middle of the road type pitcher. Bassitt has allowed 4 runs in three of his last five starts. The Nationals have been a feisty bunch here of late, and Abrams and Thomas are tough at the top of the order. This total is set quite low for a game with a poor lefty against a strong lineup. Washington's bullpen has the single worst FIP in all of baseball for the season too. Take the over. |
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08-28-23 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox meet in Boston on Monday. These two teams just met in Houston this past week. The four game series saw games with combined totals of 13, 10, 12, and 18 runs. Houston and Boston both rank in the top nine in baseball in weighted on base average in the last 14 and last 30 days. These two offenses have been rolling of late. Houston is averaging 7 runs per game in their last 7 contests. The Red Sox have scored six runs or more in six of their last ten games, and they haven't scored less than three runs in any of those games. Cristian Javier has been terrible of late. Javier has a 6.25 ERA and a 6.12 FIP in his last eight starts. The team has provided him huge run support in many of these recent games. Chris Sale has come back from injury and been shaky. Sale isn't pitching deep into games, and I don't trust the Boston bullpen either. Both offenses should get plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over. |
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08-27-23 | Yankees v. Rays -116 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 43-23 at home this year. The New York Yankees are 2-12 in their last 14 games. The Yankees are out of it and they are playing like they know this. New York starts Carlos Rodon in this one. While Rodon is coming off a 6 inning start giving up only one run, a deeper look at that start shows concerning signs still. He had just one strikeout. Rodon is normally a high strikeout guy. He has a 6.27 ERA and a 7.06 FIP this year. Rodon has dealt with a bunch of injuries. Earlier this month, Rodon allowed 4 runs in 4 innings against Tampa Bay. Zach Littell is a middle of the road pitcher. He is a right handed starter though, and the Yankees offense is bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against right handers. They have been silenced by worse pitchers quite a few times recently. A short price on the much better overall team who has been very tough to beat at home. Take Tampa Bay. |
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08-25-23 | Padres v. Brewers -115 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have been playing good baseball. Milwaukee is 7-3 in their last 10 games. Their three losses during that period were against the LA Dodgers. Everyone has been losing to the Dodgers of late, so there is no shame in those three losses. San Diego is 5-5 in their last 10 games, and they have been on a long home stand. They now start a road trip in Milwaukee. Yu Darvish vs. Brandon Woodruff is a good starting pitcher matchup. Darvish has been good for the season overall, but he is capable of laying an egg at any point and has been less consistent than other top starting pitchers. Brandon Woodruff has a great history against this Padres lineup. In 70 plate appearances against him, the Padres hitters have just 3 extra base hits. The Brewers have the best defense in baseball, and they have a clear bullpen advantage here too. Take Milwaukee. |
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08-23-23 | Nationals +124 v. Yankees | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals have a 22-14 record since the All Star Break. This is a young team that is competing hard every game. The New York Yankees are 11-23 since the All Star Break. That is tied for the worst mark in the majors since the break (tied with the Oakland A's and Chicago White Sox). The Yankees have lost 9 straight games. They now start Luis Severino in this game. Severino is 2-8 on the year, and he has been throwing the ball terribly of late. Severino has an 11.08 ERA and a 7.97 FIP in his seven starts since July 1st. The Nationals start Mackenzie Gore. Gore is a young lefty who has had some hiccups along the way, but he is a decent starter. Gore goes up against a Yankees lineup that has scored 3 total runs or fewer in six of their last seven. They have scored 1 run or less in four of their last six. Given this nice plus money price, I have to fade Severino and the Yankees. Take Washington. |
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08-22-23 | Reds +121 v. Angels | 4-3 | Win | 121 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cincinnati Reds* The Cincinnati Reds will start Graham Ashcraft in this game. Ashcraft started the season pitching terribly, but he has pitched well of late. In fact, Ashcraft has given up three runs or less in nine straight starts. He has been pitching deep into the games as well. Ashcraft has a 5.55 ERA in his career in the first half of the season, but a much better 3.95 ERA in the second half. He is also much better away from home. Lucas Giolito has been really bad of late. In his last nine starts, he has a 6.34 ERA and a 5.86 FIP. Giolito has allowed 16 runs in his last 15 and 2/3 innings pitched. He's backed an Angels bullpen that has the worst FIP of any bullpen in baseball since the All Star break. The Reds are 33-27 away from home. Cincinnati is very much still in the thick of the playoff race, but they need this one. I like their chances- and getting the plus money here is a nice bonus. This was the play I liked on Monday, and now I'm getting a bigger plus money price. I'll bet on the Reds again here after the Monday game was ppd. Take Cincinnati. |
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08-20-23 | White Sox v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Chris Flexen is in terrible form this year. Flexen has a 7.74 ERA and a 7.01 FIP. He is walking 4.09 batters per nine innings. He is giving up a ridiculous 2.63 home runs per nine innings on the season thus far. Walking a bunch of guys and giving up hard contact and home runs is a bad combination at Coors Field. Dylan Cease is certainly capable of pitching very well. Cease has been up and down in a big way this year. The Rockies have scored 25 runs in the first two games of this series, and they hit pretty well at home. The weather in this one calls for 98 degrees and winds blowing out to left field at about 12 mph. Overs are 115-82 (58.4%) at Coors Field with the wind blowing out to left field. A temperature near 100 degrees is a positive for run scoring as well. Take the over. |