*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Philadelphia Phillies are without both Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins. Those guys are two massive losses. Philadelphia does pickup Trea Turner, and the top of the lineup still looks great. The Phillies don't have the same lineup depth that they have had in the past. 

The Rangers start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has a tremendous track record in the first month of the season. He is up against Aaron Nola who has been below his average in the first month of the season. 

I think Corey Seager will have a big year for the Rangers and Lowe and Garcia are solid in the middle of the order. 

Favorites and home teams have fared very well on Opening Day in MLB over the last decade. I'll back the Rangers here.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Over* Justin Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA in his career in the World Series. He has the highest ERA of any starting pitcher to throw at least 30 innings in the World Series. Verlander was spotted a lead in game one and couldn't hold it. He hasn't been quite himself since coming back from an injury to his calf late in the season. 

Noah Syndergaard makes the start here for the Phillies. Syndergaard hasn't been that trustworthy this year. He is very capable of giving up that big inning. The Astros have a deep lineup and they can string together hits and keep runners in scoring position throughout. 

Both bullpens have been used quite a bit and that can lead to some issues. They haven't had days off as much here since they had to play Tuesday and Wednesday night after the rain out on Monday. 

Both of these offenses ranked top 8 in the majors in the last 30 days. The Phillies were no hit yesterday, but I think they can bounce back here.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is the best offense in the majors. The Dodgers have a .337 weighted on base average and they are first in the majors in wRC+ as well.

Blake Snell hasn't had a lot of success against this Dodgers lineup. Snell has allowed a .329 wOBA against the lineup he will face here. Snell struggled against the Mets in his first start in the postseason. 

Tony Gonsolin has been really bad (in a fairly small sample size) in the postseason. Gonsolin has a 9.45 ERA in his postseason career. He has a 1.80 WHIP in the playoffs. Gonsolin faces a Padres lineup that is healthy now and with Machado swinging it well and Soto against a right handed pitcher, this is a really dangerous offense.

This is a very low total in a game with a ton of extremely talented hitters. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres certainly improved their lineup during the season. Juan Soto is fantastic and the Padres lineup is pretty deep as well with Cronenworth and Myers toward the bottom of the order proving to be very solid against lefties.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball, and they are particularly good against right handed pitching. The Dodgers have a ridiculously good .340 wOBA against right handed pitching this year. 

Mike Clevinger has been subpar this year. He has had a lot of trouble with injuries, and he has been ill leading up to this start as well. Clevinger faced the Dodgers three times in the regular season this year. He never went more than 5 innings, and he allowed 4 runs or more in every start. The Dodgers should get plenty of scoring opportunities in this one as well.

Julio Urias is a very good pitcher, but he tends to get lifted earlier than most pitchers. The Dodgers bullpen has been inconsistent this season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MLB playoffs get underway with this game in Cleveland. Both of these teams are scrappy teams who have some weaknesses, but they have had successful seasons despite those shortcomings.

Cleveland isn't good against left handed pitching. Cleveland was 27th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitchers this year. Shane McClanahan is a good lefty. 

Tampa Bay was 26th in wOBA overall in the last month of the season. The Rays lack power in their lineup and they have a couple key injuries.

Shane Bieber wasn't quite as dominant this year, but he is an excellent starter who the Rays are likely to have a tough time against.

Both teams have very deep bullpens and they wouldn't be afraid to use them as they come into this one rested.

The weather here calls for a temperature of around 50 degrees with winds blowing in from center field at about 12 mph. The winds do matter quite a bit at this park.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been miserable down the stretch. Cincinnati's lineup is shorthanded and they have scored 3 runs or less in 11 straight games. The Reds have scored 1 run in four of their last six games. 

The Chicago Cubs offense has scored two runs or less in five of their last nine games. The Cubs have a lot of youth in this lineup right now, and it is hard for them to string together big innings.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire for this game. He is one of the best five under umpires in baseball. Cuzzi has a called strike percentage of nearly 66% on the year and a strikeout/walk ratio of higher than 3. He'll help as much as he can here.

The weather in Cincinnati is cool and the ball isn't jumping as it would have a couple months ago.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Corey Kluber comes back to Cleveland to take on his old team. Kluber has been a bit up and down this season. Recently he has had some poor outings, but advanced metrics show it has primarily been poor batted ball luck that is responsible for those poor showings. He actually has a pretty good FIP in recent starts.

Shane Bieber has been throwing it well of late. Bieber is up against a Rays team that isn't a very good offense against right handed pitching.

Both of these teams are really deep and very good in the bullpen. 

The forecast calls for significant wind coming in from Lake Erie during this game. There will be rain as well through some of the day. There is a chance for a delay or even a postponement. If this game is played though, the weather is a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been struggling of late, especially against right handed pitching. The Rays have been held to two runs or fewer in four of their last nine games. 

Cristian Javier has been dealing. Javier has a 2.36 ERA since the All Star Break. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those starts. Javier is striking out 10.29 batters per nine innings. 

Shane McClanahan has been tremendous this year. He has a sparkling 1.50 ERA and a 2.61 FIP in his last four starts. He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Though the Astros do have a very good lineup, McClanahan has done well against them in limited action (.227 wOBA allowed). 

Both teams have very deep and solid bullpens to back up the starters.

Brian O'Nora is the home plate umpire and he ranks in the top ten umpires in the majors in strikes called percentage as well as strikeout/walk ratio. He's a boost to the under's chances here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Orioles ML* I'm very cautious about laying big numbers in baseball, and even this number isn't that big of a number. You'll never see me taking -200 favorites. This is about as high as I'll go in MLB, but I think this number is justified.

The Washington Nationals are 6-22 in Patrick Corbin's starts this year. They are 26-66 in their last 92 vs. a team with a winning record.

Baltimore hasn't been playing particularly well of late, but they did fight back and beat the Nationals last night. The Orioles still have an outside chance at making the playoffs, but they have to get red hot right now. This is a really good opportunity for them to try to get going against both a very weak Nationals team and against a very weak starting pitcher.

Patrick Corbin has an ERA north of 7 since the All Star break. Corbin gives up far too many long balls, and Baltimore has a surprising amount of power.

Tyler Wells is an average starting pitcher, but he is backed by a strong bullpen. The Orioles have the much better offense too.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have scored 10 runs in each of their last two contests. The Yankees offense is back in a big way of late. This is still one of the very best lineups in baseball. Nick Pivetta goes against them here, and Pivetta has been smashed by the Yankees in the past. In 86 plate appearances, the Yankees hitters have a whopping .381 wOBA against Pivetta and 7 home runs.

Gerrit Cole has pitched terribly at Fenway Park, especially the last couple years. Cole has a 6.55 ERA in his last four starts at Fenway (last year and this year). This lineup is full of guys who have bothered Cole in his career.

The weather is a big deal at Fenway, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 10 mph here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cal Quantrill has thrown the ball really well of late. Quantrill has a 1.80 ERA in his last six starts. Quantrill has flown under the radar for the most part, but he has been really solid for the Guardians in the stretch run.

Dylan Bundy starts for the Twins, and he has been stronger late in the season as well. Bundy has a 2.17 ERA in his last six starts. For the season, Bundy has been much better when pitching at home as well, and he pitches on his home field here.

The Guardians bullpen has been the single best bullpen in baseball in the past 30 days. Minnesota ranks in the top ten in bullpen FIP and SIERA in that time as well. The bullpens are a big plus here.

The Guardians have seen only 2 of their last 16 games get past 7 runs total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves -1.5* The Atlanta Braves are in a key pennant race. Atlanta is just one game behind the New York Mets in the NL East. They have been catching the Mets for months now, and this Braves offense has been on fire. 

Atlanta ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Braves also rank third in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days overall. The Braves go against an average lefty in Cole Irvin here. Irvin is likely to struggle against this deep Atlanta lineup.

The Oakland A's are worst in the majors by a huge margin in wOBA at home. Oakland has a .262 wOBA when playing at home this year. Oakland's lineup is a bottom two defense in the majors. 

Kyle Wright comes into this game in great form. I expect Wright to pitch well against this Oakland lineup. The Braves also have the bullpen advantage. 

Take Atlanta -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians lost 6-3 in 11 innings against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. That one was a bad beat on the under. Cleveland has now played in 12 straight games that have been at 7 runs or less in regulation. 

Brady Singer has been in great form for the Kansas City Royals of late. Singer has a 2.34 ERA and a 2.92 FIP since the All Star Break. Singer has been at his best when pitching at home. 

Triston McKenzie has a .290 wOBA against this Kansas City Royals in his career. He is backed by the best bullpen in the majors in the last month. He has a 2.24 ERA and a 2.89 FIP since the start of July. 

There will be a slight breeze blowing in from center field during this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have played 11 straight games that have finished at a total of 7 runs or less. Cleveland's starting pitching has been good of late, and their bullpen has been excellent. In the last 30 days, the Cleveland bullpen has a stellar 1.92 ERA. They also rank first in bullpen FIP and SIERA. 

The Seattle Mariners have seen 8 of their last 10 games finish at 7 runs or less. Seattle's bullpen ranks in the top three in the last 30 days in all of the advanced metrics as well. 

George Kirby is a really good young pitcher who has multiple plus pitches. The Guardians lineup isn't nearly as deep as most of the contenders. 

Cal Quantrill has quietly put together an amazing season. Quantrill has a 1.41 ERA and a 2.75 FIP in his last five starts. 

Both of these teams are still playing hard to the finish as they try to get into the postseason. I expect another low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In their last 11 games, the Baltimore Orioles have not had a single game finish with more than 7 runs. This Orioles young pitching staff has been tremendous of late. Baltimore's bullpen has been good all year, and of late the starting pitching has been tremendous as well.

Dean Kremer was a highly touted pitching prospect who struggled badly early in his time in the big leagues. Kremer has really come into his own of late. Kremer has a 2.25 ERA and a 2.49 FIP in his last five starts. He has walked only four batters in his last 32 innings pitched. He faces a terrible Oakland A's lineup in this one. Oakland is second to last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Baltimore is 23rd in wOBA against lefties. JP Sears is a quality young lefty for the A's. Sears had a 1.67 ERA in Triple A this season. He has a 2.28 ERA in his 43 and 1/3 innings pitched so far in the majors. 

I think both young pitchers have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Dodgers have Andrew Heaney starting in this one. Heaney has been really sharp this year. He has 12 walks and 62 strikeouts in nine starts on the season. He has 20 strikeouts in his last two starts. 

While the New York Mets are elite against right handed pitching, the Mets rank 18th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. I think Heaney can do enough to slow down the Mets offense here.

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. They have a better bullpen than the Mets. They have a slightly better defense than the Mets. 

Taijuan Walker has been dealing with some back problems of late, and he gets the ball for the Mets. He faces the best lineup in the National League. The Dodgers lineup has a good .327 wOBA against Walker in his career. 

We rarely get a chance to take the Dodgers on the moneyline at a price as short as this. I'll take it here.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* I have to fade Patrick Corbin at this price. Corbin has been one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball this year. Corbin has a 6.81 ERA and a 5.02 FIP on the season. He is giving up all kinds of very hard hit baseballs of late. Corbin has one of the highest home run rates allowed so far this year. 

The Cincinnati Reds are much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Cincinnati has a couple guys in the middle of their order now who are crushing lefties in Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano. 

Nick Lodolo's upside is much higher than Corbin's. Lodolo will be an above average starting pitcher in the majors in time. He has already shown flashes. He faces a Nationals offense that is badly shorthanded here. 

The Reds have a big bullpen advantage as well. Cincinnati has brought up some quality young arms in the bullpen including Diaz at the back end.

Corbin has allowed 4 earned runs or more in seven of his last eight games.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* Corey Kluber isn't the dominant starting pitcher he was a few years ago, but he is still a quality starter. Boston only ranks 14th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Nick Pivetta starts here for the Red Sox. Pivetta is a streaky pitcher. He can look tremendous at times and he can get torched at times. He has been in good form of late, and Pivetta faces a Rays offense that is in their much weaker split. Tampa Bay is 22nd in the majors in wOBA. Pivetta has drastic day/night splits in his career. Pivetta has a career 5.63 ERA when pitching at night. He has a career 3.67 ERA when pitching in the daytime. 

Bill Miller is behind home plate for this one. If you just look at data from the last couple years, Miller has the best strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire. He is a strike caller. He's been a good under umpire for many years now.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jeffrey Springs has quietly had a really nice season. Springs has only allowed more than 3 runs in a start once this year (and that was 4). He is averaging just 2.08 walks per nine innings so he pounds the strike zone. The Rays have a pretty good defense behind him, and the Tampa Bay bullpen is deep again this year. Earlier in the season the Red Sox were smashing left handed pitching, but they have cooled off a bit of late. Trevor Story's absence certainly hurts the Boston offense.

Rich Hill starts for Boston here. Tampa Bay is a below average offense. The Rays are without Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe is questionable here with an injury. Hill has pitched much better late in the season in his career.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. Eddings has the highest called strike percentage of any home plate umpire in the last six years. Eddings is a strike caller and that should help both of these guys since they both nibble at the corners.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 8 or 9 mph during this one as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays host the LA Angels on Friday night. The Angels offense has been dreadful of late. They have scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 10 games. On the season, the Angels have the second worst weighted on base average (wOBA) in the majors when playing on the road. They have struggled badly to score away from home. 

Toronto is a good offensive team, but they aren't quite as good against left handed pitching. Detmers is a pretty good lefty. He has a 2.23 ERA since the start of July and his FIP during that time is only 2.55. 

Mitch White starts for the Blue Jays and I see him as a pretty good right handed pitcher. White has allowed just seven runs in his last four starts. 

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen and Brady Singer are two tremendous young starting pitchers. Gallen has been absolutely fantastic since the All Star Break. Gallen has a 0.92 ERA and a 1.52 FIP in six starts since the break. That includes a shutout thrown at Coors Field. He's up against a below average offense in the Kansas City Royals roster.

Brady Singer has a 1.88 ERA and a 2.54 FIP in his six starts since the All Star Break. Singer has multiple plus pitches and I really like his command of all his pitches. The Arizona Diamondbacks are a below average offense as well.

I think we see a lot of quick innings where there aren't many baserunners in this one. Neither pitcher gives many free passes, and they both have quality strikeout pitches. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* Jesus Luzardo is a streaky pitcher. He is capable of shutting anyone down and he is capable of getting hit hard as well. Luzardo has come back on fire since coming back from an injury. In his four starts since coming off the injured list, Luzardo has a 2.70 ERA and a 2.26 FIP. That includes a great start in LA against the Dodgers in his last game. Luzardo's control has been much better lately. He has 5 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last four starts.

Cole Irvin is a middle of the road lefty. The Marlins aren't a good offense, but they are slightly better than the Oakland A's. The A's are an awful 19-41 when playing on their home field. There isn't a home field advantage for the A's. If anything it is a disadvantage. There is virtually no one in the stands.

The Marlins have the better bullpen as well and this price is a good one on the road team.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* Taijuan Walker has a 6.97 ERA and a 6.70 FIP in his last five appearances. Walker has been dealing with some back discomfort, and he is struggling with his command. Walker is a very streaky pitcher, and he comes into this game in really bad form.

Frankie Montas has a 9.00 ERA and a 5.27 FIP in his three starts with the New York Yankees. Montas is striking out just 5.14 batters per nine innings. 

On the season, the New York Mets rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Yankees rank 6th in wOBA against right handed pitching. These are two deep offenses who are more than capable of taking advantage of two pitchers who are in bad form and are putting a lot of traffic on the bases right now.

The weather here calls for winds blowing out toward center field at about 7 mph during this game. Alfonso Marquez is one of the better over umpires in the game and he is behind home plate for this one. He carries a very low strikeout/walk ratio in the long term.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Last night's contest between these two got crazy especially late in the game, but I think this one will be much lower scoring.

Before last night, the Arizona Diamondbacks had seen six of their last seven games stay under 7.5 runs total. The Cardinals have seen four of their last eight stay under this total as well.

The Diamondbacks are 23rd in wOBA against lefties this year, and Jose Quintana is really pitching well. Quintana has a 1.52 ERA and a 2.85 FIP in his last five starts. I expect him to pitch well here against the DBacks. 

Merrill Kelly has been tremendous this season. Kelly has allowed 2 runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. Kelly has done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark this year, and he is a strike thrower in general. 

CB Bucknor has great strikeout/walk rates in the last couple years, and I rate him as a decent under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* The Milwaukee Brewers sold at the trade deadline in shocking fashion by getting rid of Josh Hader. The bullpen hasn't been the same since. Williams just blew yesterday's save and has pitched in two of the last three games. 

Milwaukee ranks 25th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. They face a solid lefty here in Justin Steele. Steele has a 1.66 ERA and a 2.76 FIP since the start of July. He also has a fantastic wOBA of .262 against this current Brewers lineup. Milwaukee has struggled mightily against lefties in general, and their offense has been weak of late. 

Brandon Woodruff is a very good pitcher, but the price tag here is too high given the Brewers issues right now. The Cubs have won 8 of their last 10 games. Chicago continues to battle. Milwaukee deserves to be favored, but I have to take the Cubs at this big plus money price.

Take the Cubs. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles topped the Boston Red Sox 15-10 last night in an epic scoring fest. I'm not expecting like that in this one, but I do think 8.5 is too short in this situation. 

Both teams rank in the top ten in the majors in wOBA in the last two weeks. The Orioles have a lot of youngsters who have been heating up of late. Guys like Mountcastle, Rutschman, Hays, and the rest are tough outs. 

Michael Wacha has a great ERA on the year, but the advanced metrics suggest he has been very lucky. He has left 82% of runners on base, which is just unheard of. He has a SIERA of 4.27 and is going to regress at some point. The Orioles lineup has a whopping .491 wOBA against Wacha in 53 at bats. 

Kyle Bradish may be a good pitcher in the majors in time, but right now he isn't very good. Bradish is allowing nealry 2 home runs per nine innings and he walks nearly 4 batters per nine innings. 

A temperature in the upper 80's and a wind blowing out about 8 mph to center and left center field helps here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Simply put, the Yankees can't be mid-sized favorites against the Rays with how poorly they are performing. New York is 2-11 in its last 13 games and 8-17 going back to the All-Star break. The Yankees' hitting has dried up. New York has managed only nine runs in its last seven games. The Yankees have been without injured Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu and Matt Carpenter. 

*3 Star Play on Rays +1.5* The Yankees are at their lowest point of the season. They are 8-16 since the All-Star break, including 2-10 in their last 12 games. If they were laying 1 1/2 runs during this time frame, the Yankees would be 1-11 during their past dozen games. Tampa Bay, by contrast, is 3-0 in its last three games outscoring its opponents by a 16-3 margin during this span. This game has the makings of a 4-3 type score in a pitching matchup of Jeffrey Springs versus Nestor Cortes. Each pitcher has been impressive. Springs has a 2.56 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Cortes has a 2.67 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Both bullpens rank in the top-seven although Yankees closer Clay Holmes has been struggling having given up 11 earned runs in his last 11 innings. The Yankees haven't been scoring, managing only eight runs in their last six games.  Take the Rays on the run line. 

*4 Star Play Over* Not only are Kyle Bradish and Yusei Kikuchi enduring rough seasons, but they have bad recent histories against these respective opponents. Bradish is 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Bradish went up against the Blue Jays on June 13. He gave up five earned runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss. Kikuchi, who is 4-6 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, faced Baltimore a week ago. He surrendered five earned in five innings on six hits and three walks. The Orioles slugged three homers against him. Overall, Kikuchi has a .361 wOBA allowed against Baltimore in his career. Kikuchi is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts versus Baltimore this season. 

The Orioles were held in check by Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen yesterday. But they still have scored six or more runs in seven of their last 12 games. Toronto ranks in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. 

 The past seven meetings between these two teams in Toronto have resulted in six Overs and one push.  Take the Over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Tigers and White Sox managed a combined 10 runs on Saturday. But make no mistake these are struggling offenses. The Tigers average a major league-low 3.1 runs per game. If you discount a rare 9-run performance against the Rays and Detroit is averaging 1.8 runs in its last nine games. The White Sox are averaging 3.1 runs in their past six games while missing two of their key bats with Tim Anderson and Luis Robert both injured. 

Yet the total is fairly high because of a starting pitching matchup of Tyler Alexander versus Lance Lynn. Alexander has a 3.83 ERA. However, he's coming off an excellent performance against the Guardians this past Tuesday where he pitched a season-high seven innings while giving up two runs on seven hits. Alexander has a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts. The Under has cashed during each of his last six road starts. Alexander normally doesn't pitch deep into games. But Detroit relievers have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

Lynn came off the injured list too early and paid the price. He's 2-5 with a 5.88 ERA on the season. Lynn, though, has started to get back to speed. He's been respectable during his last four starts. During this span, he blanked the Guardians for six innings and held the Royals to one earned run in six innings. Lynn can hold his own against bad offenses. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dominant starting pitching isn't required for an Under to play out when the teams are the Tigers and White Sox.  The Tigers have the worst offense in baseball ranking last in runs, homers and OPS. They have scored four or fewer runs in 17 of their last 20 games and are averaging 1.7 runs in their last four games. Detroit just struck out 14 times to the Guardians in a 4-3 extra inning loss Thursday. Cleveland starter Zach Plesac had seven strikeouts. Plesac is not a high strikeout pitcher with 90 in 114 innings. The Tigers have struck out the second-highest number of times in the American League.  Now Detroit draws White Sox righty Michael Kopech, who has a 3.14 home ERA. The Under is 43-19-5 (69%) the last 67 times the Tigers have gone against a righty starter. The White Sox are in a scoring slump, too. They've produced fewer than four runs a game in seven of their last eight games. Chicago is averaging 2.7 runs in its last four games.

The Under has cashed in nine of the White Sox's last 12 games.  Lefty Daniel Norris is slated to start for the Tigers. He has a 4.59 career ERA with the Tigers. The White Sox have the second- highest batting average in the majors against southpaws, but rank 11th in slugging percentage.

Overall, the White Sox rank 18th in runs and 25th in homers through Wednesday. This is likely to be a bullpen game for the Tigers, which is fine since Detroit has the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.20. The Tigers won't have to face star shortstop Tim Anderson, out with a broken finger. There's a slight breeze in the forecast and that's for the wind to be blowing in at 5-6 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Orioles ML* The Orioles have won 23 of 31 games since July 3. They've gone 18-6 as underdogs or pick in 24 of those games during this span. Just another reason why the Orioles have easily been the most profitable team in the majors for bettors.  Once again, Baltimore has opened as an underdog. This time to the struggling Red Sox, who are 1-6 in their last seven games and 3-9 during their past dozen home contests. The Red Sox have surrendered 56 runs in their last seven games for an average of eight runs allowed per game.  

Dean Kremer pitches here for the Orioles. The Orioles have the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Baltimore also enters this matchup fresh since its Wednesday game against the Blue Jays was postponed.  Josh Winchowki will oppose Kremer. He has a 4.68 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Red Sox's bullpen entered Wednesday ranked 26th in ERA. The Orioles are swinging hot bats scoring six or more runs in six of their last eight games. 

 Take the Orioles.

*3 Star Play Under* Shane McClanahan is firmly in the American Cy Young Award discussion. He might even be the favorite with a 10-4 record, 2.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, which is the lowest in baseball. McClanahan has the fourth-lowest ERA in the majors and is tied for the fourth-most strikeouts.  McClanahan is in good position to turn in another dominant performance facing Detroit, which has the worst offense in the league ranking last in runs, homers and OPS. The Tigers are averaging a puny 2.7 runs in their last nine games.  

Garrett Hill gets the start for Detroit. He's been better at home where he's 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA. McClanahan's road ERA is 1.62. Hill goes against a Rays offense that is bottom-10. Hill is backed by a strong Detroit relief corps that has the fourth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Tampa Bay has scored fewer than four runs in nine of its last 13 games.  Both hurlers will be aided pitching at spacious, pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. The forecast also is calling for winds to be blowing in at 7-to-8 mph.  

Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* This total is too low given Toronto's high-caliber offense and Kevin Gausman not being in good form lately. The Blue Jays have the highest batting average in baseball at .265. They entered this week ranked third in runs and on-base percentage. Toronto has scored at least four runs in 13 of its last 16 games.  Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen is decent, but he's a low-innings pitcher. Only twice in his last 10 starts has he gone more than five innings. He has a 3.90 ERA in night games. Rasmussen has to contend with a red-hot Vladimir Guerrero, who has a 12-game hitting streak and is batting .421 during his past 10 games.  The Rays are missing some key batters due to injuries. They did pick up David Peralta from the Diamondbacks to strengthen their outfield depth. This total is low due to Gausman, who has a 3.30 ERA. But Gausman hasn't been sharp with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. Gausman has surrendered four homers during these last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

The Giants are struggling averaging two runs per game during their last five games. Things aren't looking up as they go against Zac Gallen, who has a 3.36 ERA this season when pitching at home. Gallen is in good form with a 2.89 ERA during his last three starts. This is a day game. Gallen has a 1.90 day time ERA. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

Both teams have below average offenses. Tampa Bay starter Corey Kluber has been solid. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts reaching the sixth inning during each of those seven outings. The Rays have a strong bullpen ranking eighth in relief pitching ERA. 

The Rays managed only a combined five runs in their last two games while striking out 19 times against mediocre Kansas City pitching. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

These are two of the coldest offenses in baseball. And now both are running into hot pitchers. Miami is averaging 2.4 runs in its last 15 games. The Marlins have been shut out in three of their last four games. The Pirates are averaging 1.8 runs in their last six games discounting an eight-run game against the Rockies at Coors Field. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. 

 Don't look for the Pirates to break out with a big-scoring game facing Sandy Alcantara, a prime Cy Young Award candidate with a 9-4 record, 1.76 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Alcantara has a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts. He has the lowest ERA in the National League.  Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller has pitched his most consistent ball of his career since rejoining the rotation at the end of May. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts since then. He has a 2.37 ERA during his past three starts. The Marlins are without Jorge Soler, their second-leading home run hitter with 13. He was placed on the injured list because of back spasms on Saturday. Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play Under*The Tigers are the lowest-scoring team in the majors. They've scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games. 

Mariners ML (+106)

 *3 Star Play on Seattle* The Astros are in a tough scheduling spot here. They swept the Yankees in a doubleheader at home on Thursday, but then had to fly out to the West Coast to take on the hottest team in baseball. Seattle has won 14 in a row and 22 of its last 26 games. The Mariners are fresh, too. This is their first game following the All-Star break.  It wouldn't surprise if the Astros rested a starter or two. They may not have their star closer, Ryan Pressly. He was not with Houston against the Yankees after going on paternity leave following the birth of his daughter on Wednesday.  The Astros have lost in six of their last eight visits to Seattle.  The pitching matchup pits Jose Urquidy against Marco Gonzales. Urquidy has a 5.20 road ERA. Gonzales has a 3.21 home ERA.  

Take Seattle

*3 Star Play Under*

Detroit and Cleveland rank last and second-to-last in home runs. So it's not surprising they don't score much. The Tigers have scored eight runs in their last six games if you discount a seven-run performance they had against the Royals. Detroit scores the fewest runs in the league and is second-from-the-bottom in OPS. The Guardians have scored four or fewer runs in 13 of their last 15 games. The pitching matchup is Drew Hutchinson versus Zach Plesac. Neither pitcher generates a lot of respect. But each is good enough to tame these weak offenses. Hutchinson proved that two starts ago when he held the Guardians to one earned run in five innings. He's made two starts since returning to Detroit's starting rotation, giving up three earned runs in 11 innings, allowing 10 hits and one walk. Detroit has the third lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Plesac's ERA is 3.89 on the season. However, his ERA at home is 2.85. Plesac is in good current form, too, with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. There is a slight wind blowing in. 

Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray once were outstanding pitchers. They still are very good. Cueto has a 2.91 ERA on the season. He has a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and a 1.74 road ERA on the season. Gray has a 3.03 ERA. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts. Gray's home ERA is 2.83. Both pitchers can go deep into games, too, so middle relief doesn't have to factor. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tony Gonsolin has been great for the Dodgers all season, leading the majors in ERA at 1.62 and in WHIP at 0.80. The Cardinals scored seven runs against the Dodgers on Tuesday in a 7-6 victory. But previous to that, St. Louis had only managed 11 runs in its past eight games. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies* The Padres held off the Rockies, 6-5, on Monday night. That was just the second time the Rockies didn't win during the past eight times they've been a home underdog. Colorado was 6-1 as a home 'dog entering Monday's game, winning five of those games at a plus price of $1.30 or higher. So a strong look must be given to the underdog Rockies in today's game in a bounce back spot. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rockies are a hitting machine at Coors Field. The Padres are a much stronger offensive club, too, when playing away from their pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Colorado ranks No. 1 at home in runs scored, batting average and OPS. The Rockies are No. 2 in home slugging percentage. The Padres are the second-highest scoring team in the majors when playing on the road. They rank in the top nine in a number of other offensive categories when away from home, including runs, batting average, OPS and OPB.  

Neither starting pitcher, San Diego's Sean Manaea nor Colorado's Jose Urena, has a good track record at Coors Field. Manaea is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts at Coors. Urena has a 5.73 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 11 career innings at Coors. The lefthanded Manaea is not in good form with a 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings.

The Rockies have the second-highest batting average in the league against southpaws at .286. Urena has pitched more than three innings just once all season. So the Rockies' vulnerable middle relievers could see plenty of action.  The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out to left field. The Rockies aren't likely to have Kris Bryant, but could get back C.J. Cron, who leads the team in homers and RBI's.  Take the Over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers will start Brandon Woodruff in this one. Woodruff has been excellent of late. He started the season slowly, but he is in great form coming into this one. Woodruff has a 1.73 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in his last five starts. Woodruff has held this Pirates lineup to a weighted on base average of just .281 in his career as well. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 13 runs in their last six games. The Pirates don't have nearly enough depth in their lineup.

Zach Thompson is a middle of the road starter for the Pirates. The Brewers offense isn't all that good though. They are averaging just 3.17 runs per game in their last six contests. 

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here. The under is 21-9 in his last 30 games behind home plate. Ortiz has had some very high strikeout/walk rates in the last couple years and that should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense clearly doesn't have the upside they did before Bryce Harper went down with an injury. The Phillies have been getting some remarkable performances from Kyle Schwarber, and you have to wonder how long he can keep this up. 

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last eight games. They have scored 3 runs or less in each of their last five games. 

Both of these teams are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handers. The Phillies are 5th in wOBA against lefties and 11th in wOBA against righties (would be much lower without Harper). The Cardinals are 7th in wOBA against lefties and 14th against righties.

Zack Wheeler is a top 6 or 8 right handed pitcher in baseball. Wheeler has a 2.66 ERA and a 2.48 FIP. He is putting together a third straight fantastic season. 

Adam Wainwright isn't the dominant starter he once was, but he is at least an average right handed starter, and his splits at home suggest he is still an above average starting pitcher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals have been without Juan Soto in their last two games. He is questionable for this contest. Washington isn't very good offensively to begin with. Without Soto, this Washington offense becomes a bottom six or eight offense in baseball. 

Philadelphia is without Bryce Harper, and that definitely hurts their offense a lot. They are coming off an excellent offensive showing last game, but I still expect this team to have some struggles at the plate without him. 

Josiah Gray is a very highly touted pitching prospect who has been pretty impressive in his recent outings. Gray has a 2.75 ERA and a 3.25 FIP in his last five starts. 

Aaron Nola has pitched well in general this year, and he has been at his best of late. Nola has just 4 walks and 38 strikeouts in his last 37 innings pitched. In his last five starts, he has a 1.70 ERA and a 2.08 FIP.

Bill Miller is behind home plate here, and Miller has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in baseball. He will give the pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays -1.5* Adrian Martinez had a 5.63 ERA with a 5.63 FIP in his 13 starts in Triple A this year. Martinez had a 5.28 ERA and a 5.29 FIP in his nine starts in Triple A last year. He has consistently struggled with giving up too many home runs, even at the lower levels. This isn't a guy I expect to have long term success in the majors.

Toronto was shut down by Irvin last night. Irvin is just mediocre pitcher, and Martinez is worse. I would expect the Blue Jays bats to bounce back here. Toronto is a top five offense in baseball, and this is a good spot for them.

The Oakland A's are just dreadul. If you have been betting against them in their home games and taking the other team on the -1.5 run line you would be 23-10 in the last 33 games. Oakland's offense at home has an unreal bad .251 wOBA. Not a single player in the regular Oakland A's lineup has an average better than .239. 

While Kikuchi has been very inconsistent this year, and he is capable of getting hit hard, Kikuchi does have a sparkling .206 wOBA allowed against this Oakland lineup in 72 at bats for the A's roster.

Take Toronto -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Miami Marlins have won four straight games including the first three games of this four game series in Washington. 

The Washington Nationals are one of the worst teams in baseball this year. Washington is an ugly 14-29 at home this year. Juan Soto is their superstar and he left Sunday's game and needed an MRI after the game. It is very questionable on whether he will play in this early game on July 4. 

Patrick Corbin starts for the Nationals and he has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.41 FIP on the season. Corbin has a terrible history against this Marlins lineup. The Marlins hitters have a .340 wOBA against Corbin overall. 

Braxton Garrett is a youngster who was a first round draft pick. Garrett has improved this year and in time he should be a solid starter. The Nationals are subpar against lefties.

The Marlins are a top five fielding team. The Nationals are the second worst team in the league in fielding. The Marlins have a top ten bullpen in the majors and the Nationals have a bottom five bullpen in baseball.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees have the best record in baseball. The Yankees don't really have a weakness. The offense is very good and they have all kinds of power. The Yankees pitching staff is plenty good enough. The Yankees bullpen is arguably the best in baseball. 

The Cleveland Guardians have hit right handed pitching well this year. Cleveland has been terrible against left handed pitching though. Cleveland is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against left handed pitching. 

Jordan Montgomery has an impressive 3.27 ERA and a solid 3.74 FIP on the year. Montgomery isn't flashy, but he is a pretty good left handed starter. Cleveland hasn't been able to hit lefties in general, and this looks like a good matchup for him on paper.

Triston McKenzie has a 6.44 ERA in his last five starts and a 6.57 FIP in those starts. McKenzie has gotten hit very hard in his last two outings, and now he faces the powerful Yankees lineup.

Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dallas Keuchel is a really bad left handed starter at this time in his career. Keuchel doesn't have strikeout pitches, and he is no longer elite at inducing soft contact. 

Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Rockies now have Kris Bryant back in the middle of the lineup as well. Bryant and CJ Cron form a tremendous duo that really crushes lefties. 

Austin Gomber has been in bad form this year. Arizona has scored at least 7 runs in three of their last four games. The DBacks have a budding star in Alek Thomas and he has really caught fire of late. 

Both bullpens have had to work a lot of late, and neither bullpen has much in the way of depth. 

I expect plenty of scoring chances for both teams here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies rank second in the majors in weighted on base average over the last two weeks. Colorado has really been seeing the ball well of late. The Rockies have gotten a bit healthier of late, and that certainly helps.

Arizona has the worst batting average on balls in play in the last month of any team in the majors. The Diamondbacks offense isn't great, but they have been unfortunate of late. If you haven't been getting hits to drop in, Coors Field is a great place to travel to in order to get right. 

Merrill Kelly has made three starts at Coors Field, and he has an 8.15 ERA here. Kelly has pitched well this year overall, but I think this will be a real challenge for him. 

Antonio Senzatela has allowed a whopping .349 batting average and a .407 wOBA in 126 at bats against those players currently on the Diamondbacks roster. 

Warm weather and a slight breeze out to center field are helpful here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros offense is starting to wake up. That's dangerous for the rest of the league. Houston's bullpen has the best ERA in baseball, and the starting pitching staff is very solid.

Justin Verlander has thrown the ball really well of late. In his last four starts, he has 4 walks and 23 strikeouts. Verlander has a 2.19 ERA and a 2.93 FIP in those starts. 

Taijuan Walker is a solid starter, but he has been at his best early in the season through his career. Walker has pretty drastic splits from April/May to July/August. The weather is heating up.

Houston is 28-10 in their last 38 vs. a right handed starter. The Astros are 11-4 in their last 15 road games.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd and 6th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Against right handed pitching, both are much more mediocre though. The Braves are 11th and the Phillies are 17th. 

Now, the Phillies are without superstar Bryce Harper. Harper is one of the best overall hitters in the game and this is a huge loss. 

Charlie Morton has thrown his best baseball in the last couple outings.

Zack Wheeler has tremendous splits at home the last two years. Wheeler has a 1.49 ERA and a spectacular .229 wOBA allowed at home this season. He had a 2.38 ERA and a .246 wOBA last year at home.

Both teams are down key hitters in the lineup.

The weather calls for moderate temperatures for summer in Philadelphia, and the slight wind is from center field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Red Sox ML* The Cleveland Guardians are tied for last in the majors in wRC+ against lefties. They are second last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. I won't pretend that Rich Hill is a great lefty, but he is still crafty and has a pretty good 4.04 FIP.

Aaron Civale starts for the Guardians. Civale has really struggled this year. In his career, he has some ugly day/night splits. In day games, Civale has a 5.05 ERA and a 1.317 WHIP. In night games he has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.152 WHIP. Civale pitches in the daytime here against a top six or eight lineup in baseball. 

The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Boston is 26-9 in their last 35 games overall. Cleveland is just 1-5 in their last 6 home meetings with the Red Sox. 

At this price, I have to side with the Red Sox.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has the highest called strike percentage in baseball in the last five years. You won't find a better umpire for an under than Eddings. He got himself in a lot of battles with the Blue Jays and White Sox in his last game behind home plate. To say that he had a massive strike zone in that one is a big understatement. That was a brutal beat on the under in that game, but it certainly wasn't because of Eddings. 

Blake Snell had much better numbers pitching at home last year, and I expect his home numbers to improve a lot the rest of the year. Snell struggles with walks at times, but Eddings should help him at least some here.

Zach Eflin goes against a Padres lineup that is shorthanded because of injury right now. Eflin has been solid this year. 

The Phillies bullpen ranks about middle of the pack this year. The Padres have a top 6 or 8 bullpen in baseball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds are a bottom three team in the majors. Cincinnati had lost 7 straight games before winning last night. I don't think they'll pull off another win here. In 11 of the Reds last 13 losses they have lost by two runs or more. 

Mike Minor is well past his prime and he has been getting crushed so far this year, and that has been against mediocre or worse lineups. Minor has a 6.97 ERA and a 7.34 FIP on the season. Minor has allowed a whopping 7 home runs in just 20 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Giants are above average against lefties and I think they'll get to him here.

Logan Webb is one of the more underrated starting pitchers in the majors. Webb hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a single start this year. He also has a sparkling 3.01 ERA and .288 wOBA allowed at home in his career. 

Take the Giants -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Yankees have elite power against right handers as well and easily rank first in ISO against right handed pitching. New York has some underrated left handed bats in this lineup.

Justin Verlander is still a good pitcher, but he isn't the dominant pitcher on a consistent basis that he was a few years ago. Verlander had a swinging strike rate of 16.1% back in 2019. This year he has a swinging strike rate of 11.0%. 

Luis Severino has allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts. Severino has excellent stuff and he has a 13.6% swinging strike rate, which is the highest of his career. 

The Yankees should have a fresh Clay Holmes available in this one, and he has been as good as anyone in the majors in the bullpen this season.

The Yankees are 30-7 at home this year. The Astros are 5-12 in their last 17 at Yankee Stadium. 

These are two very good teams, but I'll lay the short price with this Yankees team that has been getting it done consistently all season.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees* The Houston Astros are a good team and I respect Framber Valdez as a strong starting pitcher. I still think there is value on the New York Yankees here.

The Yankees have been the best team in baseball all season. New York is 29-7 at home this year. The Yankees are 43-12 in their last 55 games overall. It is going to be very rare to see them as such a short home favorite.

Jameson Taillon is a really good pitcher. Taillon doesn't walk batters and he limits big innings. Taillon is throwing the best baseball of his career right now. 

Houston can't match the bullpen the Yankees have. The Astros are only ok in the bullpen. 

Houston is 1-4 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. They are 5-11 in their last 16 games playing on the road against the Yankees.

I'll back New York laying the short price.

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's offense is terrible. Oakland has scored two runs or fewer in six of their last ten games. Oakland is last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. George Kirby is a highly rated right handed pitcher who has shown the ability to throw multiple pitches well and limit hard contact.

Paul Blackburn is having a breakout season for the Athletics. Blackburn is doing a tremendous job inducing soft contact and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Seattle's offense is very inconsistent.

The A's offense has been bad in general this year, but they are much worse at home. In fact, no other team in the majors has a wOBA lower than .284 at home this year, but the A's have a miserable .255 wOBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this game. Eddings has the highest called strike percentage of any home plate umpire in the majors in the last five years. He consistently rings up batters and is a very good under umpire.

Dylan Cease has one problem and that is his control. Cease is averaging 12 strikeouts per nine innings and he has multiple very good pitches. Eddings should help his control problems at least some here.

Kevin Gausman has a .458 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed in his last three starts. Gausman has a fantastic 16.0% swinging strike rate on the year and a 1.75 FIP. He is still a very good pitcher.

The White Sox are 1st in the majors in wOBA against lefties and 28th against righties. The Blue Jays have a .352 wOBA as a team against lefties, but their wOBA is .323 against righties.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Oakland A's are a team I'll look to fade as often as I can. I think Oakland is the worst team in baseball. Their offense is dreadful, especially against right handed pitching. Oakland ranks second worst in baseball in weighted on base average. They are 26th in wOBA against lefties and 29th in wOBA against right handed pitching.

I think Brady Singer is an underrated young right handed starter. Singer has faired well against below average offenses this year. He has been hit hard by the best lineups in baseball. Oakland is far from that. 

Oakland starts Jared Koenig in this one. The A's lefty wasn't highly touted and I don't think he'll have a long career in the majors. The Royals aren't great offensively, but they have been better against lefties than right handers.

Oakland has won 3 of their last 25 home games. The A's have virtually no home support and this team has clearly played better on the road than at home. 

Kansas City has the better pitcher and the much better lineup here.

Take the Royals. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees have won 15 of their last 16 games. New York has the best record in baseball, and it isn't very close. They have the best team batting average and the best team ERA in baseball. The Yankees are playing excellent baseball.

Toronto is a very good team, and the Blue Jays certainly deserve respect, but they are laying a pretty big number here against the best team in baseball so far this year.

While I do think Alex Manoah is a better starting pitcher than Jameson Taillon, there isn't a world of difference with the way Taillon has pitched this year. He has a slightly worse ERA on the road this year (3.25) but his wOBA allowed is actually lower on the road so he has been unfortunate to give up those runs. Taillon does a great job getting ahead in the count and not walking batters.

Manoah is excellent, but the Toronto bullpen is much worse than the Yankees bullpen. The Yankees have a top two or three bullpen in baseball. Toronto is arguably a bottom 10 or 12 bullpen in baseball.

I think this one should be a coin flip, and we are getting a nice plus money price. I'll take it.

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles start Dean Kremer in this one. Kremer has been hit around hard in his time in the big leagues. He had 7.55 ERA and a 6.99 FIP last season. Kremer walks a lot of guys and gives up a lot of hard contact. Until he proves capable of consistently staying out of big innings, I don't trust him against major league lineups.

Shane Baz is an above average prospect for the Rays, but he doesn't usually pitch very deep into games. The Rays middle relief is weaker this year than it has been in recent seasons.

Baltimore's offense has been much better of late, and their bullpen has been absolutely dreadful in recent weeks. 

The Orioles have played nine straight games that have gotten to at least 9 runs total. Seven of the nine have reached at least 11 runs.

A hot night in Baltimore (nearly 90 degrees) should mean the ball is flying well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies are fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Cleveland Guardians are 29th (second to last) in the majors in wOBA against lefties. 

Cleveland has been good against right handed pitching this year, but they are up against a lefty in Austin Gomber. Gomber has a tremendous track record at Coors Field. In 15 starts, he has a 3.50 ERA at Coors. This is a really tough park for pitchers, but Gomber has a stellar 1.178 WHIP at Coors.

Pilkington starts for the Guardians and this is a really tough spot for the youngster. Pitching at Coors Field for the first time is never easy, and the Rockies really hit left handed pitching well.

I think Colorado should be in the -125 range, so I'll grab this price.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles send Dean Kremer to the mound on Sunday. Kremer has been terrible in the big leagues. Kremer has a career 7.84 ERA and a ridiculously high 1.807 WHIP. 

Brad Keller goes to the mound for the Royals. Keller has been much worse in the first half of the season in his career. Keller has a 6.31 ERA and a 4.96 FIP in his last six starts. He is striking out only 4.54 batters per nine innings during that time.

The Royals bullpen has the single worst SIERA in the majors in the past month. The Orioles rank below average in the bullpen in the last month.

Both offenses have shown some life of late. The temperature for this game is expected to be 91 degrees, so the ball should be flying well in Kansas City.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank dead last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching. Detroit is a terrible offense against right handed pitching, and Ross Stripling is a decent starting pitcher. Stripling has bounced around in the majors, but he has shown the ability to throw strikes consistently and limit big innings.

Tarik Skubal is an excellent young pitcher. Skubal is averaging just 1.37 walks per nine innings. He is also getting hitters to chase at an increased rate. Skubal has a stellar 2.33 ERA and a 2.10 FIP on the season. In his last seven starts, he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any game. He has allowed zero runs in four of those seven starts. 

The Blue Jays lineup is very good and they are capable of scoring here, but Skubal doesn't give up many home runs and he has superb control. They will have to earn it.

The Tigers bullpen has quietly been excellent this year. They have the second best bullpen ERA in baseball. Toronto's bullpen is middle of the road, but they are against a really weak lineup.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays -1.5* The Toronto Blue Jays struggled offensively for quite a while this year, but they have finally really kicked it in offensively in the last few weeks. This offense is too talented to struggle for the entire season. Toronto ranks first in the majors by a landslide in weighted on base average over the last 14 days (.400 wOBA). For the season, they now rank 5th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Detroit starts Brieske here and he is a youngster who is inconsistent. Brieske makes too many mistakes to have success against Toronto on a consistent basis.

The Tigers offense is mediocre against lefties, but they are abysmal against right handed pitching. Detroit ranks second to last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. They rank last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching. 

Kevin Gausman is a really good starting pitcher. Gausman has the highest chase rate in the majors this year, so he is making the opposition swing at a bunch of bad balls. Gausman ranks in the top two percent in the majors in walk rate. Gausman has a 2.19 ERA on the road between last year and this season thus far. Gausman has 7 walks and 73 strikeouts this year.

Toronto should be favored by even more here in this matchup. I'll lay it on the run line.

Take Toronto -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Orioles ML* The Baltimore Orioles aren't a team I'll back very many times this year, but they are in what I believe is a good spot here.

The Kansas City Royals have the least wins in all of baseball. Kansas City has some major problems as a team, and I don't see them turning it around anytime soon. 

The Royals are starting arguably their worst starting pitcher here in Jonathan Heasley. Heasley has 18 walks and only 15 strikeouts in his 25 and 1/3 innings pitched so far this year. To be this far into the season and have more walks than strikeouts is a horrible sign. Heasley has a 4.62 ERA, but his FIP is an even worse 6.38. He has been fortunate to not give up even more runs.

Bruce Zimmermann is a pretty solid prospect for the Orioles. He has been beaten up by the Yankees this year (4 starts against them already), but the Yankees will beat up a lot of pitching this year, and the Royals are certainly not the Yankees.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* The LA Angels have lost 14 games in a row. It isn't often that you'll see a team that has lost this many games in a row favored. They are in this contest.

Shohei Ohtani starts for the Angels and I understand why the oddsmakers still show him a ton of respect. Ohtani is very good, but we've seen that one or two guys can't carry a team and the Angels are a real mess right now.

Nick Pivetta has a 1.32 ERA and a 2.62 FIP in his last six starts. He's going up against an Angels lineup that has scored 1 run or less in six of their last nine games. Mike Trout is questionable for this game with a groin injury. Anthony Rendon is out with an injury. 

Boston is 19-7 in their last 26 games. The Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. 

In its current state, the Red Sox lineup is much better than the Angels lineup. The Angels have a bottom ten bullpen in baseball, while the Red Sox are a top ten bullpen in baseball.

At the plus money price, I'll back Boston.

Take the Red Sox. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The New York Mets were hit hard by the injury bug on Tuesday night. Pete Alonso was injured after getting plunked by a fastball. Alonso was said to not be able to grip a bat on Tuesday night, and he is expected to miss some time. He's clearly a huge loss for this team. Starling Marte exited the game on Tuesday with a quad injury of some sort and he is questionable for this game on Wednesday.

Sean Manaea is a bit inconsistent, but he is a good starting pitcher. Manaea has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.48 FIP on the season. The Mets are elite against right handed pitching, but they are just 15th in the majors against lefties. If Alonso and Marte aren't able to play here, the Mets would be without two of their top four hitters against lefties. 

Chris Bassitt is a pretty good pitcher, but he is streaky. Bassitt has a 6.35 ERA and a 6.40 FIP in his last four starts. The Padres have been swinging the bats better in recent games as well.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Braves -1.5* The Oakland A's are last in baseball in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Oakland has a .261 wOBA against right handed pitching. They are also tied for last with the Tigers in slugging percentage against right handers.

Kyle Wright is having a breakout season thus far. Wright has a 2.41 ERA and a 2.94 FIP on the year. His swinging strike rate has jumped from 9.8% a year ago to 12.1% so far this season.

Atlanta has been inconsistent this year, but one thing the Braves have done very well is hit left handed pitching. The Braves are 4th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Atlanta is first in the majors in ISO against lefties, so they have some serious power against left handers.

Cole Irvin is a below average left handed starter. Irvin has a 5.20 career ERA on the road with a .352 wOBA allowed on the road. Irvin has a 2.96 ERA and a 5.07 xERA on the year. His FIP is 4.12 on the season. Irvin's ERA is impressed, but the advanced metrics suggest he is due for serious regression. 

Take Atlanta -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This is a tremendous lineup with depth and power that is tough to match. The Dodgers offense hasn't been great of late, but I expect them to break out of this mini slump very soon.

The New York Mets lineup is above average as well. Lindor hitting the ball really well has taken pressure off the stars around him this year.

Trevor Williams has had a good season thus far, but his career stats suggest he is likely to regress at any moment now. Williams has a 5.46 ERA, his worst of any month of the season, in the month of June in his career. 

Julio Urias has worse advanced metrics this year than he has had the last couple seasons. He's still a good pitcher, but his whiff rate being way down is a bit concerning for him.

The weather here is warm with a temperature of about 82 degrees and the winds are blowing out at about 10 mph.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Logan Webb and Pablo Lopez are two really underrated starting pitchers. Webb is a strike thrower who isn't going to give up many big innings thanks to his control and suppressing hard contact when it comes to batted balls. 

Pablo Lopez has been tremendous at home in his career. Lopez has a 2.89 career ERA at home and a .277 wOBA allowed. He has been much better in the first half of the season than the second half (3.26 ERA compared to 4.78 in the second half). Lopez has started 10 games this year, and he has allowed 1 run or less in 7 of those 10 starts.

Bill Miller is the umpire behind home plate here, and he is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and has a very high strikes called percentage. He should help both pitchers quite a bit here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Paul Blackburn is a pretty good pitcher, but I don't think he is as good as his stats so far this season look. Blackburn has a 2.15 ERA, but a 3.34 xERA and a 3.50 xFIP. He is up against an offense in the Red Sox that comes into this game with quite a bit of momentum. Boston ranks first in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days. This Red Sox lineup has been very hard to quiet of late.

Nick Pivetta started the year badly, but he has been on a roll of late. Pivetta has a 1.59 ERA and a 2.76 FIP in his last five starts. Pivetta has a career 3.78 ERA in day games and 5.75 in night games. This is a day game in Oakland. 

Oakland's offense easily ranks last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The A's are a team I look to fade whenever I can against right handed pitching. They are up against a much better lineup here and we don't have to lay much juice at all.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers aren't a very good offense to start with and they are without Omar Narvaez and Wily Adames right now. Milwaukee has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 13 games. Joe Musgrove is throwing the ball really well right now. He has a chase rate that ranks in the 94th percentile in the majors which is way up from last year. His consistency this year has been tremendous.

The San Diego Padres offense has been struggling of late. The Padres have scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. San Diego typically walks a lot and relies on walks to get innings started. They rank 4th in the majors in walk percentage. Corbin Burnes is an elite pitcher and he doesn't walk people. Burnes has walked just 11 batters all season thus far. Burnes comes into this game in great form.

Both bullpens are well rested with their top relievers ready to go in this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros start Justin Verlander in this one. Verlander is coming off a bad start in Seattle. Before that start though, Verlander had thrown 19 innings in a row without allowing a single run. He's still been very good this year, and I expect a bounce back outing here.

The A's lineup has been terrible against Verlander. The current Oakland lineup has a .249 weighted on base average against Verlander in 118 plate appearances. Oakland is now dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. This lineup is very weak.

Cole Irvin is a below average left handed pitcher. While Houston looks mediocre against lefties, they have had horrible batted ball luck. Houston has a BABIP of just .231 against left handed pitchers, which is easily the lowest in the majors. This Houston lineup has good results against Irvin in a small sample size (68 at bats) including 4 home runs and only 9 strikeouts.

Oakland is 7-20 on their home field. The A's have no home field advantage now, and they are one of the weakest teams in baseball.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros are one of the best teams in baseball. The Oakland A's are one of the worst teams in baseball. Houston hasn't been playing great of late, but the Astros still have no clear weakness as a team. 

Oakland has the second worst lineup in the majors against righties when it comes to weighted on base average at .264. The A's also rank second to last against right handed pitching in ISO, so they don't have power. 

Cristian Javier has a great 2.43 ERA and a 2.73 FIP on the season. He has allowed only one run in his last 11 and 2/3 innings pitched.

Frankie Montas is a good pitcher, but he has been mediocre against the Astros in the past. The A's bullpen isn't good.

I would guess Houston will be without Jose Altuve here, but if he plays that is just a bonus. Houston's lineup has several underachieving stars who are likely to bounce out of their funk at any point.

I'll lay the price with the Astros here.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians rank last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching (30th). Cleveland has actually been very good against right handed pitching though. The Guardians rank 7th in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Jonathan Heasley isn't a good starting pitcher at this point in his career. The Royals youngster has walked 13 batters in his first three starts this year. He has struck out only 7 batters. His ERA at Triple A in six starts this year was only a mediocre 4.44.

Zach Plesac has really struggled this year for Cleveland. Plesac has a 5.40 ERA and a 5.06 FIP on the season. 

Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games. Whit Merrifield is finally getting going, and Bobby Witt. Jr has been fantastic in his rookie season.

The weather here is important too. The game time temperature is expected to be in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* In 84 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes, this Cardinals lineup hasn't been very good. They have a 33.3% K rate and an expected batting average of just .207. 

Miles Mikolas has shut down the Brewers lineup. The Brewers have a .261 weighted on base average against Mikolas, and an expected batting average of just .247. 

Both Mikolas and Burnes are elite at not walking batters. Batters are likely to need to be swinging away in this one. Dan Bellino is a solid under umpire too and he is behind home plate for this contest. 

The Cardinals are elite against left handed pitching, but only mediocre against right handed pitching, and Burnes is one of the best. The Brewers lineup is a middle of the road lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers are awful against right handed pitching. Detroit is last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching, and they are second to last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Detroit has scored more than 5 runs only once dating back to April 23. Detroit has scored no more than 4 runs in their last ten games. This is a bad offense that is prone to swinging and missing a lot. Triston McKenzie has multiple plus pitches and he is a tough matchup for them.

Elvin Rodriguez is a pretty good prospect for the Tigers. Rodriguez has a good curveball and pitching at Comerica should help him out.

The wind is expected to be blowing in 12 mph for this one.

Bill Miller is behind home plate here and he ranks second in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last five years. He's a very good under umpire with a high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brady Singer was a first round pick and I think Singer's upside is extremely high. Singer has thrown 16 innings in a row without giving up a run. Singer has walked just 3 batters in that period. Singer has a career high 11% swinging strike rate so far this year, and he has one of the best curveballs in baseball.

Chris Archer is an inconsistent pitcher, but Archer has been better of late and the Twins are not allowing him to go through the order a 3rd or 4th time very much since that has been his weakness in his career. 

Kansas City is without Salvador Perez who has been their most consistent hitter in recent years. The Royals lineup is below average. 

Minnesota's lineup was great last night, but had scored just 2 runs in three straight games before that. 

Adam Beck has a 3.42 strikeout/walk ratio so far this year which is extremely high. He's been a pitcher's umpire which boosts the under too.

Take the under.