*3 Star Play Under* Anthony Kay is set to start for the White Sox. Sean Burke will follow and pitch plenty here too. Kay has a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings pitched against the Guardians this season. Burke has a 1.04 ERA in 17 innings pitched against the Guardians this year. They are backed by a pretty good bullpen as well.

Cleveland starts Gavin Williams. Williams has been elite at home this year, and he finished with the second most strikeouts in baseball in the regular season. Williams occasionally can give up the home run ball at too high of a rate, but the weather here should help with that. The Guardians bullpen is deep and in good shape here to pitch several innings if needed.

A temperature in the upper 50's with a wind blowing in at about 12 mph is very pitcher friendly at Progressive Field here. Postseason totals with the wind blowing in 8 mph or more have been 43-25 to the under in the last 68. The angle gets stronger with cooler weather too. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies* I like the Phillies combination of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler here. Nola will start the game, but it is expected that Wheeler will come in as well. Jesus Luzardo is even being considered to throw an inning or two.

Aaron Nola threw 13 and 1/3 innings against the Braves this September and allowed just 3 runs in those two starts combined. Nola has a 2.77 ERA in his last ten starts overall. Wheeler has a 1.67 ERA in his last six starts. 

Kerr is expected to open for the Braves and Holmes will be a bulk pitcher. Holmes pitched far worse at home this year than on the road. He allowed a very high .350 weighted on base average at home. He allowed 13 home runs at home.

The Phillies came from behind yesterday, and I like their chances of stealing this series away from Atlanta.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Under* Payton Tolle and Cam Schlittler is a fantastic starting pitching matchup. This should be a fun one.

Tolle is in the top 5% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA. Tolle is in the top 4% of all pitchers in baseball in chase rate. He has elite control and when you combine that with great swing and miss stuff outside the zone it is tough to hit. 

Schlittler is a favorite for the Cy Young for good reason. He's been awesome all year. Schlittler ranks in the top 7% of all pitchers in expected ERA, strikeout rate, and average fastball velocity.

Schlittler has dominated this Boston Red Sox lineup. In 85 plate appearances against Schittler, the Red Sox lineup has a .196 weighted on base average. He has 4 walks and 25 strikeouts against them.

Tolle has allowed only a .164 wOBA against the Yankees in 33 plate appearances. 

Both bullpens are elite. The weather here is relatively cool.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Angels ML* The Seattle Mariners were eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. Seattle lost at home last night to this Angels team, and I do question how much the Mariners care now the rest of the way.

Bryce Miller has been terrible down the stretch. Miller has a 6.15 ERA and a 6.04 xERA in his last seven starts. Miller has a career .328 wOBA allowed against this Angels offense as well.

Reid Detmers has had a fantastic season. Detmers ranks in the top 20% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA. He is in the top 15% of all pitchers in baseball in walk rate and strikeout rate. It's rare to find that combination. 

This is a price grab more than anything else. I'll grab the dog with Seattle pitching Miller and having just been eliminated.

Take the Angels. 

*3 Star Play Under* Espino is expected to open for Cleveland with Cantillo coming in as the bulk pitcher. Espino is a highly touted prospect and Cantillo has been throwing the ball really well of late. Cantillo has served as the bulk pitcher after an opener in his last two outings. He has allowed just three hits and no runs in 10 innings pitched in those games. 

Ranger Suarez is getting back into a groove of late. Suarez is a really good left handed starter, and he should make it tough for the Guardians here. Suarez is up against a Guardians team that is bottom six in baseball in all of the major offensive stats against left handed pitching.

The weather is very helpful for an under here. The temperature will drop into the mid 50's during this game. The wind will be blowing straight in from center field at about 10 mph throughout as well.

These are two elite bullpens who can shut down the opposition on a regular basis.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sean Manaea has a 6.62 ERA and a 6.15 expected ERA in his last six starts. The Texas Rangers aren't very good against right handed pitching, but they have mashing left handed pitching. I don't see any reason to expect Manaea to slow down the Rangers in this one. The Rangers have scored six runs or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

The Mets offense has really come on late in the season. This offense has been really good on the road. Gore is a middle of the road lefty with middling advanced numbers across the board. He hasn't been in good form lately either.

I understand this is a pitcher friendly park, but these are two average or below average starters. The bullpens aren't good either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* The San Diego Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 games. Nick Pivetta is on the mound for the Padres here. Pivetta has a 3.60 ERA and a 1.60 FIP on the season. He has thrown 13 scoreless innings in a row at home. He doesn't pitch too deep into games now, but the Padres bullpen is elite. 

Tyler Phillips has a 2.49 ERA at home this year, but the Marlins pitcher has a 5.21 ERA at home. Phillips is walking nearly 5 batters per nine innings in his last four starts. He is having major control issues. The Padres offense is red hot right now, and they can make him pay for putting free runners on base.

The Padres are in the third Wild Card spot, while the Marlins have no realistic chance of catching up and making the playoffs. 

San Diego should be highly motivated here and they have all the momentum coming into this one.

Take San Diego -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Dodgers -1.5* Two pitchers going in two completely different directions. The Cincinnati Reds start Andrew Abbott. Abbott has a 9.12 ERA and a 6.19 expected ERA in his last six starts. He has allowed six home runs in his last three starts! Abbott now faces a Dodgers lineup that is starting to heat up. 

Blake Snell has a 1.04 ERA and a 1.75 FIP in his last six starts (since he came back from an injury). He hasn't allowed a single home run during that time. 

The Reds lineup has scored one run or fewer in four of their last six games. I don't expect things to get better against Snell, who is throwing as well as anyone in baseball. 

The Reds bullpen has been struggling badly of late as well. 

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. This Mets offense has been hot of late. Shane Baz has been pretty good this season, but he struggles against left handed batters. The Mets are now able to put together a nice lineup of left handed hitters to make things difficult for Baz. I think they can do some damage here.

Baltimore is 7th in the majors in runs scored per game on the road. Baltimore is also much better against left handed pitching than they are against right handers. The Orioles are 12th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handers compared to just 23rd against right handed pitching.

Sean Manaea is in really poor form coming into this game. Manaea has a 7.22 ERA and a 6.96 expected ERA in his last five starts overall. He has allowed 7 home runs in those starts. His swinging strikes rate is way down as well.

Both teams should have success here.

Take the over. 

AL West Total of the Year *4 Star Play Under* Reid Detmers has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last few weeks. Detmers has allowed a grand total of 3 runs in his last six starts. He has a 0.69 ERA during that time and a sparkling 1.54 FIP. He has walked just nine batters and struck out 41 hitters during that time. Detmers has just one total walk in his last three outings. He is coming off arguably his best start of the season.

Kade Anderson is an extremely highly touted left handed pitching prospect for Seattle. Anderson has a 4.29 ERA in his first four starts in the majors, and he is coming off his best start.

The Mariners are dead last in the majors in wOBA against lefties this year. The Angels are just 22nd in wOBA against left handed pitching this season.

It is surprising but the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball so far this season has been Angel Stadium. 

The under is 46-28 in the Angels home games so far this year. Here we have a dominant lefty and a solid lefty against two offenses who have been very weak against left handed pitching. We also have a fair total of 8 runs. I'm going to the low side here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Parker Messick is one of my favorite young pitchers in baseball. He is in the top 12% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA this season. He has a 2.37 ERA and a 2.73 FIP in his last five starts. Messick is in really good form coming into this one. In 51 plate appearances against him, the Twins lineup has just a .285 wOBA against Messick.

Taj Bradley is a solid young starter as well. Bradley has been much better when pitching at home. He has allowed a .281 wOBA at home compared to .325 on the road. In 84 plate appearances against Bradley, the Guardians have a low .269 weighted on base average. 

The two bullpens are in good shape coming into this one as far as rest. I'll look for this one to be a lower scoring tight game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been red hot of late. They have scored 7.5 runs per game in their last six games. This Mets team is battling until the end, and some of the youngsters they have brought up have been great for this offense. The Marlins offense also ranks top ten in the majors in the last week. Both of these offenses have a low batting average on balls in play in the last week, so it hasn't been lucky offensive outputs. They have been hitting the ball really hard.

Robert Stock carries a very high walk rate, and that leads to a bunch of base runners. The Marlins will get their chances here.

Janson Junk has worse numbers throughout his career late in the season. He has faded many times late in the season, and the Mets are a tough matchup right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Angels have scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their last 11 games. The Angels have been weak against left handed pitching during this streak. Patrick Sandoval is inconsistent, but he is up against a weak lineup. He's backed a strong bullpen that is well rested.

Reid Detmers has only allowed a grand total of three earned runs in his last five starts. Detmers has a 0.82 ERA in that time and a 1.61 FIP. Detmers is throwing the ball as well as anyone in the majors of late. The Boston offense has slumped of late.

These two bullpens both rank in the top five in the majors in SIERA and FIP in the last four weeks. The Angels bullpen has improved a lot of late. 

Fenway is a place where the weather matters and the temperature here will be dropping into the 60's during the game. The slight breeze here will be blowing in from right field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather can be a factor in Cleveland home games. When the wind is blowing in from right field the under has been a very good wager in the last 15 years. The times when the temperature isn't hot are even stronger to the under. In this one we have an average temperature of just 73 degrees and sustained winds blowing in at about 15 mph from right field.

Gavin Williams is more than capable of shutting down any lineup. He's been much better pitching at home. He ranks in the top 3% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout percentage. The Tigers have a lot of guys who swing at a bunch of bad pitches. The Guardians best bullpen arms are well rested here too.

Cleveland has been poor offensively overall this year. Jackson Jobe is inconsistent and he can struggle with the home run ball, but the weather is helpful here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Daniel Lynch had done a nice job coming out of the bullpen, but he has been overmatched when starting this year. Lynch has an ERA over 6 when starting this season. The Blue Jays lineup has just started hitting of late. They have 25 runs in their last four games. 

Jameson Taillon is in the bottom three percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. 

The Kansas City Royals offense is top five in the majors in all major offensive categories in the last two weeks. Kansas City has been red hot at home offensively. 

It helps that the weather has been really beneficial to run scoring in KC, and that is the case once again on Friday night. A temperature in the 90's and the slight breeze blowing out helps.

The two bullpens here are in terrible shape, and I think there could be a lot of runs late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bryce Miller has been terrible in the last couple months after starting the season strong. Miller has a 7.19 ERA and a 6.30 FIP in his last eight starts. He has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of those 8 starts. I don't trust Miller to quiet the Boston bats in this one. 

Pablo Sandoval is an inconsistent starter. He has allowed a .372 weighted on base average at Fenway Park. Sandoval has an ERA above 5 in his last four starts. 

The Mariners offense has broken out in the last two games. They were carrying the lowest batting average on balls in play in the majors in the last 10 games before this streak. They are starting to see the ball better and the better luck has shown up here in Boston.

Both starters have blow up potential and the price is low enough where I'm going to side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The weather matters a lot at Wrigley Field. Warm temperatures and winds blowing out have led to some really high scoring games the last few days. We have similar conditions on Tuesday night. A temperature near 90 degrees at first pitch and winds blowing out at about 6-8 mph. 

The last four games have seen an average of 18 runs scored per game at Wrigley. There has been at least 12 runs scored in each of those games.

Matt Boyd has a 2.83 ERA on the road, but he has been hit hard at home. Boyd's ERA at Wrigley is 5.44. The Brewers lineup has an impressive .350 weighted on base average against Boyd too. 

The Chicago Cubs lineup is first in baseball by a wide margin against left handed pitching. They are also first in baseball in total offense in the last two weeks. 

Robert Gasser is a below average lefty pitching in tough conditions in Wrigley. I think he'll give up quite a few here.

Both teams should contribute well to this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Philadelphia Phillies start Aaron Nola here. Nola started the season poorly, but he has quietly been throwing the ball quite well of late. Nola has a 2.79 ERA and a 3.48 expected ERA in his last five starts. Nola is backed by a bullpen that has been top eight in the majors all season. They have thrown it very well lately. Nola has a great .282 wOBA allowed against this DBacks lineup in 126 plate appearances in his career. 

Arizona has been terrible against right handed pitching this year. They are second worst in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching for the season. 

The Diamondbacks start Brandon Pfaadt here. Pfaadt has had two poor outings in a row. Pfaadt has drastic splits this season. He is great against right handed hitters (1.91 ERA) but has struggled badly against lefties (4.88 ERA). Lefties have hit for really good power off of Pfaadt. The Phillies are a very lefty heavy lineup. This is a tough test for Pfaadt. 

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball. Milwaukee is 45-24 at home as well. Texas is just 30-39 on the road. 

Bradford starts for the Rangers here. Bradford's ERA is very good, but I see a couple really concerning signs for him. He has a 3.05 ERA and an expected ERA of 5.24. Second, he has faced the Giants, Angels, Athletics, and Angels in his four starts. Those lineups can certainly make pitchers look good.

Logan Henderson has been excellent this season. Henderson has a 2.72 expected ERA, which is in the top 6% of all pitchers in baseball. He has a rare combination of great control and excellent ability to generate swings and misses. 

Milwaukee's bullpen has a big edge here too.

Take the Brewers -1.5. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are second. These two teams have mashed lefties all season, but they have been particularly good of late. Both teams have been hanging big numbers against some pretty good left handed pitchers.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a good ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest he has been quite fortunate. Rodriguez has pitched against a bunch of weaker offenses of late, and now he faces a Cubs offense that is crushing lefties. This is a tough task.

Matthew Boyd has a 6.12 ERA and a 7.69 FIP in his last four starts. Boyd isn't missing bats, and his normally good control has really fallen off badly. Boyd has allowed eight home runs in his last four starts. 

I think both teams will have a lot of scoring opportunities in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Walbert Urena has been the best LA Angels starting pitcher for most of this season. Urena has been throwing the ball really well of late. In his last eight starts, he has thrown 41 innings and allowed only 22 hits and 10 runs. Urena has a 2.20 ERA in that time. He has only allowed two home runs in that time. Urena has been at his best when pitching at home. Urena has a 2.27 ERA for the season at home. He has allowed opponents to have only a .176 batting average at home. 

Gavin Williams is in the top 3% of all pitchers in K rate. Williams has a 2.80 ERA and a 2.69 FIP in his last six starts. Williams has great swing and miss stuff, and the Angels have a bunch of guys who strike out a lot. Williams should have success here.

It is surprising, but Angel Stadium actually ranks as the most pitcher friendly stadium so far this season according to Baseball Savant's park factor. 

Both bullpens are better than average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Parker Messick here. Messick is their ace, and he is a tremendous young left hander. Messick has an expected ERA which is in the 90th percentile in all of baseball. He has a 1.88 ERA in his last eight starts. He has a 2.42 expected ERA in those outings. 

The Angels offense has really been struggling of late. The Angels have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. Messick is a tough guy to go against in this spot.

Klassen is a top ten prospect for the Angels. He's been inconsistent, but the Guardians lineup is certainly a below average lineup.

The Angels have been a top five bullpen in all the major statistics and advanced metrics since the break. The Guardians have an above average pen too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres offense has been on fire of late. San Diego is third in the last 14 days in wOBA. They are fourth in the last 30 days in wOBA. Bailey Ober has a 6.75 ERA on the road this season. Ober ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in chase rate, and his velocity on his fastball is way down.

Walker Buehler has been inconsistent this year. Buehler ranks in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in nearly all of the advanced stats, and I don't trust him to get a pretty decent Twins lineup out throughout this start.

The Padres bullpen is a bit taxed, and the Twins bullpen has been weak of late.

Both teams should have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dylan Cease is a serious contender for American League Cy Young this season. Cease has done his best work on the road. He has a 1.71 ERA on the road this season. Opponents are hitting a miserable .155 against Cease away from home. 

This Yankees lineup has struggled badly with Cease in the past too. Cease has allowed just a .168 batting average and a .233 wOBA against the current Yankees lineup.

Ryan Weathers has been very solid this season. Weathers has a 1.98 ERA in the second half of the season. The Blue Jays lineup has been awful against left handed pitching all season.

Cease has an ERA that is more than a full run lower in day games than in night games in his career. 

The wind is blowing in for this game too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Troy Melton and Noah Cameron are two impressive young starting pitchers. Melton has a 1.71 ERA on the season, and he is in the 88th percentile of all pitchers in expected ERA. Melton is that rare pitcher who generates a bunch of swings and misses and also has great control. 

Noah Cameron started the year a little slowly, but he has been lights out of late. Cameron has allowed 0 runs in three of his last five starts, and his only poor start recently was against the Dodgers in LA. Cameron goes up against a Tigers lineup that has been struggling and is dealing with some key injuries. 

I think both of these pitchers are underrated by the market. The Tigers bullpen is strong. The Royals bullpen is a weakness, but Cameron has been going very deep into the game on a consistent basis.

The little bit of wind that there is here is blowing in and the temperature has cooled down a bit in KC compared to earlier in the month.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Gavin Williams here. While he was shaky in his last start against the Padres, he has been very good overall and has had great strikeout stuff working in recent outings. In his last 8 outings, Williams is striking out 13.88 batters per nine innings pitched. He has a 2.67 expected ERA during that eight game stretch. His ERA is nearly a full run better at home too.

Landen Roupp has been pretty good for the Giants this season. Chase DeLauter has been out for the Guardians and is questionable for this one with an injury. He's a key bat in the middle of this order. 

The Guardians bullpen is above average, and the Giants bullpen has been improved of late.

The Giants have scored 1 run or less in 6 of their last 12 games overall. The offense has been struggling in a big way.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10-12 mph in Cleveland for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The New York Mets are 10th. In the last 14 days, the Mets are third and the Padres are 6th. These two offenses have been good of late.

Last night's game was 5-2, but Tatis robbed what would have been a grand slam for the Mets as well. 

Michael King gets the start here for the Padres. King is a decent pitcher,  but he has slightly worse numbers late in the season. King can also give up the home run a little too much. The wind is blowing out here with a high of 87 degrees. It is good weather for the ball to fly well at Citi.

Robert Stock has a ridiculously high walk rate. He's had that in the past in his career as well at previous stops. The Padres are 7th in the majors in walk percentage against right handed pitching. San Diego should have a lot of traffic on the bases here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have started to hit slightly better of late. They are averaging 5.25 runs per game in their last five games. Seattle's offense has been significantly better away from their home field (a very pitcher friendly park). 

Bryce Miller was amazing early in the season, but something has broken of late. Miller has a 6.12 ERA and a 5.65 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 7 home runs in his last 32.1 innings pitched. The Brewers offense has been really good at home this season, and I think Milwaukee does some damage on Miller here.

Kyle Harrison has been very good this year, but his career splits are much worse late in the season. His level has dipped a bit of late. I don't think Seattle will crush him, but I do think they can put some on the board. 

This is a really low total and I'm going with the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* Cristopher Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Sanchez has a 2.54 ERA and a 2.61 FIP. He has been even better at home. Sanchez has a sparkling 1.41 ERA at home. 

The Marlins offense has been inconsistent this year. They also have some terrible numbers against Sanchez. Sanchez has held this Marlins lineup to a horrible .183 weighted on base average. 

The Phillies just swept the Twins in Minnesota. This Phillies lineup has really come alive in the last few games. Bohm has been a great spark the last couple days. 

Janson Junk is a middle of the road starting pitcher. Junk has a career 5.35 ERA away from home with a wOBA allowed of .363. 

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres start Casey Mize here. Mize was a good pickup at the trade deadline. He is in the top 25% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He has great control, and he has good movement on multiple pitches. 

Tanner Bibee starts for the Guardians. Bibee is in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in expected ERA. He has a 4.71 ERA and a 4.46 FIP in his last seven starts. He has allowed 10 runs in his last two starts. Bibee is a streaky pitcher, and he is struggling a lot right now.

The Padres are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. San Diego has been hitting the ball really well. The Padres bullpen is very well rested, and they have an elite bullpen that is clearly better than the Cleveland bullpen.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the last 30 days, the Toronto Blue Jays offense ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average. The New York Yankees are 29th. These two offenses have been struggling mightily. 

Dylan Cease is a co-favorite for the AL Cy Young. Cease has a 1.31 ERA and a 2.22 expected ERA since the start of July. He should pitch deep into this game.

Ryan Weathers has been good overall, and he has been even better on the road. Weathers has a 3.35 ERA on the road this season. The Toronto Blue Jays are last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

I see a tight low scoring game in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers start Troy Melton here. Melton has a sparkling 0.88 ERA in the second half of the season. He's been consistently awesome for Detroit. He has allowed 1 run or less in eight of his last nine starts. In the other start, he allowed two runs. Melton has been fantastic, and I see no reason to doubt him in this one.

Anthony Kay has been much better at home. He's on the road here against a Tigers lineup that has really heated up in the last few weeks. Kay has a 5.07 expected ERA. He has been allowing a bunch of baserunners and getting out of trouble most of the time. That is dangerous and he is likely to get bitten some here.

The Tigers bullpen is very well rested. Detroit has the better starting pitcher and the hotter offense. Detroit is 7-0 in Melton's last 7 starts. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* Michael King has a 2.93 ERA in his last 7 starts (since the start of July). King has allowed just one run in 4 of those 7 starts. King has allowed this Guardians lineup to hit just .175 in 47 plate appearances.

Gavin Williams is throwing the ball about as well as any pitcher in the majors right now. Williams has a 1.42 ERA and a 1.32 expected ERA in his last four starts. He has 4 walks and a whopping 40 strikeouts in those four starts. He is getting all kinds of swings and misses. 

The wind is blowing in from right field at about 7-9 mph during this one, and that can make a difference close to the lake. 

Both bullpens are well rested, and they both have some high quality late innings arms. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* Bryan Woo is 1-8 with a 6.71 ERA on the road this season. Woo has allowed a .352 weighted on base average away from home. He can't be trusted away from home until proven otherwise.

Ryan Weathers is a lefty, and the Mariners are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Weathers is throwing the ball really well of late, and the Mariners have scored a grand total of 4 runs in their last 4 games overall. 

The Mariners are 23-34 away from home this year. Woo has been awful on the road. The Yankees are far from a perfect team right now, but I'll lay the short price given the matchups here.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* Troy Melton is a star starter. Melton has allowed a grand total of five earned runs in his last eight starts. Melton ranks in the top 15% of all pitchers in expected ERA. He has thrown the ball really well on the road. The Tigers bullpen is a strong one backing him, and they are pretty well rested too.

Logan Webb is a quality pitcher, but he has been less consistent than Melton. The Giants bullpen is clearly much worse than the Tigers bullpen too. 

The Tigers have several good left handed bats, and Webb has struggled much more against lefties. 

This is a short price for a Tigers team playing good baseball right now.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Cleveland Guardians start Gavin Williams here. Williams is throwing the ball really well right now. Williams has 3 walks and 55 strikeouts in his last five starts. He is striking out 15.15 batters per nine innings in those last five starts. He has a 2.48 ERA and a 2.08 FIP during those five starts.

Anthony Kay is just in the 17th percentile of all pitchers in expected ERA this year. He isn't striking out many batters. The White Sox bullpen is extremely taxed right now. 

Cleveland's lineup has gotten a bit of a boost from Lowe coming over from Cincinnati, and Jose Ramirez is back and healthy which helps a ton. The Guardians have a bullpen edge here too.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Under* Baltimore has been struggling badly on offense since trading away Taylor Ward. The Orioles are weaker against right handed pitching. Nate Eovaldi isn't as dominant as he was a few years ago, but he is still a quality pitcher. The Rangers bullpen is in good shape heading into this one as well.

Shane Baz has rounded into form of late. Baz has a 2.63 ERA in his last five starts. He has a 2.00 FIP in those starts. Baz has historically been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season. The Rangers offense is much weaker against right handed pitching than lefties.

This is the second most pitcher friendly park in the majors so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dylan Cease is a deserving American League Cy Young co-favorite right now. Cease has a 1.92 ERA and a .230 weighted on base average allowed on the road. Cease has a 1.00 ERA and a 2.18 FIP in his last five starts overall. He is in the top 4% of all pitchers in expected batting average, and he's in the top 1% of all pitchers in K rate. 

The Cubs are elite against lefties. They are above average against righties, but not nearly as good as they are against lefties.

David Peterson isn't a great pitcher, but he is in good form of late. The Toronto Blue Jays are also dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

The wind at Wrigley Field isn't really a factor in this one, and the temperature is expected to be cooler here with cloudy skies and a high of just 79 degrees.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sean Burke has a 1.42 ERA and a 2.19 FIP in his last seven starts. Burke has a .118 batting average allowed in a very small sample against this Red Sox lineup. Burke is pitching deep into games of late.

Sonny Gray has been solid all season long. Gray has a 2.93 ERA on the season. He has a 2.72 ERA at home this year. Gray is up against a White Sox offense that has scored 2 runs or less in 4 of their last 7 games.

These bullpens are in pretty good shape heading into this one too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers are 13-3 to the over in their last 16 road games vs. a left handed starter. The Dodgers offense hasn't been up to par of late, but this is an elite lineup that should get it going soon. 

Shota Imanaga struggles badly with the home run ball, especially at Wrigley with the wind blowing out. There are warm temperatures and winds of 8-10 mph expected to be blowing out in this one. Imanaga has a .341 wOBA against the Dodgers with a .384 expected wOBA. 

Eric Lauer is a below average left hander, and the Cubs crush left handed pitching. Lauer has a .350 wOBA allowed against his lineup with a .347 expected wOBA.

I think both lineups do damage here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* The Washington Nationals team looks a whole lot different today than it did a few days ago. They traded away Luis Garcia, Casey Mead, and Foster Griffin. That is a sign that front office didn't think these guys could get back in the playoff race. They decided to sell. 

James Wood was injured in Monday's game and will get an MRI Tuesday. He is questionable at best for this one. The Nationals lineup that had been so good all year doesn't have the same pop now.

Jesus Luzardo is in the top 11% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA, expected batting average, and whiff rate. Zack Littell is the pitcher for Washington here and he is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA.

Take Phillies -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Yankees have been the worst and second worst offenses in baseball in the last two weeks. Both of them have some good bullpen arms and a quality starter going here. 

Cam Schlittler is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He's been locking down opponents of late. He has 1 walk and 28 strikeouts in his last three starts. I think he pitches very well here.

McGreevy certainly isn't on that level, but he does have a 3.57 ERA this season. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play on Boston* The LA Dodgers are a great team, but this price is disrespectful to the Boston Red Sox. Boston is 22-4 in their last 26 games. They are a massive underdog in this game with a really good young starting pitcher on the mound. 

Jake Bennett is in the 86th percentile in the majors in expected ERA. He is 97th percentile in chase percentage. He is in the 98th percentile in walk percentage. Bennett has been consistently very good.

Emmett Sheehan has a 4.95 ERA and a 4.40 ERA. Sheehan has been poor in recent starts.

The Red Sox have the better bullpen here. They are catching a big price.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense just isn't the same without Bobby Witt Jr. He'll be back soon, but he will miss this contest. The Royals are averaging just 3 runs per contest in their last 12 games. They haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of those games. 

Ryan Feltner isn't a good starting pitcher, but I do think he is better than the market rates him. He has been decent at Coors Field for most of the season.

Avila starts for the Royals, and the Rockies lineup has been struggling of late as well. 

A total of 12 is really high even for Coors Field. Both of these offenses are clearly worse than league average, and I just can't support a total being this high with these offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays are in the bottom five in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 14 days. The St. Louis Cardinals are last. These two offenses come into this one really struggling swinging the bat.

Leahy has been excellent the last few games. The Blue Jays lineup could be without Vlad Jr here (questionable) due to an injury. 

Dylan Cease has an ERA under 2 since June and Cease also has a FIP just as low. It hasn't been a fluke. Cease is dominating. The Blue Jays bullpen is throwing the ball well also.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* Cam Schlittler is one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball. He ranks in the top 1% of all pitchers in fastball run percentage, so he has great movement on his pitches. He doesn't walk many batters at all. He has 0 walks and 20 strikeouts in his last two starts. Schlittler has been amazing on the road this season. He has a 1.08 ERA away from home.

Davis Martin is inconsistent on the mound. He can be very good, but Martin has had several meltdowns this season. The White Sox bullpen is much weaker than the Yankees bullpen as well.

A huge starting pitching edge and a big bullpen edge for the road team. The Yankees have been great on the road all year.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have had some bad losses of late, and they are in must win territory if they want management to be buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline.

Troy Melton has a 1.95 ERA on the season. Melton ranks in the top 22% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average. The Orioles are 1/18 against Melton as a team. 

Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles. Kremer has a .389 weighted on base average allowed against lefties this year. While the Tigers don't have a great lineup, they do have some solid lefties and I think they can do some damage here. 

The wind is expected to be blowing out, and Kremer has struggled with giving up the home run ball all season long.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* Yean will be the opener for Andrew Alvarez here. Alvarez has a 4.22 ERA and a 3.05 FIP this season. He has had poor batted ball luck, and I believe he is better than his ERA would indicate. 

Max Scherzer starts for Toronto after a long stay on the injured list. Scherzer had a 10.23 ERA and a 8.79 FIP in his six starts earlier this year. Scherzer turns 42 years old today, and he is far from the pitcher he was six or eight years ago. 

The Washington Nationals lineup is the hottest in all of baseball. CJ Abrams is on fire since the break. James Wood continues to hit the ball well. Luis Garcia is 6/11 with 2 home runs in his career against Scherzer.

I think this price is too cheap.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs offense is on fire of late. The Cubs have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last six games. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates still rate first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the season. Jameson Taillon is back from an injury and he has been hit hard this season. He isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago.

Ashcraft has fallen off badly in his last four starts, and the Cubs will make him work in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. This offense has cooled off in a big way. They have hit left handed pitching well all season, but they have really struggled against right handed pitching. 

Hunter Greene is one of the best pitchers in the National League when he is healthy, and he has looked great in his last couple games after coming back from an injury. Greene was dealing against the Cubs and then pitched well at Coors Field. 

Andre Pallante started out the season pitching well, but Pallante has faltered of late. The Reds offense has heated up some with Suarez swinging it better and De La Cruz healthy once again.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* Nolan Mclean has been dealing of late. Mclean has allowed 2 earned runs in his last four starts combined. The Dodgers are a really good offense, but they haven't been at their best of late. Mclean will give them a tough challenge here. 

Yamamoto is one of the best pitchers in the majors. The Mets have scored 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 10 games. This offense has a really hard time stringing together hits. Yamamoto has been far better when pitching on the road compared to at home.

The bullpens are in pretty good shape rest wise heading into this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Eury Perez is a streaky pitcher, and he has been throwing the ball extremely well of late. Perez has a 1.24 ERA in his last five starts and his expected ERA is 2.12. Perez has seen his velocity on his fastball go up lately, and his strikeout rate has been high as well. 

While the Padres have hit better of late, this is still a bottom five offense for the season as a whole. The Marlins bullpen is a solid unit too.

Miami has scored 2 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 10 games. The Marlins have regressed toward the mean on offense. Randy Vasquez now starts for the Padres. He is no star, but the Padres bullpen is excellent as well. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eduardo Rodriguez has outperformed his underlying metrics all season long. I think Rodriguez is due for some regression the rest of the way. He has a 2.62 ERA and a 5.12 expected ERA. Rodriguez has an extremely high strand rate. He's up against a Nationals offense that is tied for first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Washington is crushing the baseball.

Washington starts Palmquist as an opener, and Littell is expected to enter afterward. Littell is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed. Arizona's offense is above average.

These two bullpens are a mess. The Nationals might have the worst bullpen in the majors. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers are much better against left handed pitching. They are third in wRC+ in the majors against lefties. Anthony Kay has been struggling of late, and I think they can put up a good number against Kay and the White Sox bullpen. 

Tyler Alexander will open for Cal Quantrill here for the Rangers. Quantrill's advanced metrics are far worse than his ERA. I think he is due for regression and is being overrated by the marketplace right now.

The White Sox are an above average lineup, and the Rangers are elite against left handed pitching.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Washington has been the second best offense overall in the majors in the last 30 days in wRC+. The Nationals have a young lineup that produces at a high level.

Kyle Freeland starts for the Rockies, and he is one of the worst left handed starters in the majors. The Rockies are 6-12 in Freeland's starts this year. Colorado is 2-6 in their last 8 games overall. 

Andrew Alvarez has good stuff and his FIP is 2.94 for the season.  The Nationals bullpen is a concern and I would put at least part of this wager on the first 5 price. Still, I think at this short price the Nationals are worth backing here. They clearly have the better offense and they have the better starter as well.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays start Shane McClanahan here. He has shut down ability, and he has been a streaky pitcher this season. He has two straight shutouts in his last two starts, and he has walked no batters in those two games. Boston has been red hot on offense, but I do think they will regress to the mean at some point, and McClanahan is the best lefty they have seen in a long time.

Sonny Gray has consistently been great this season. Gray has a 1.60 ERA and a 2.34 expected ERA in his last six starts. His strikeout rate has gradually gone up throughout the season.

McClanahan has been throwing harder of late, and he appears to be fully healthy again.

The temperature should stay in the 70's at Fenway for this one which helps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The LA Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games. This team isn't good, and they are up against a Detroit Tigers team that has turned things around a bit in recent weeks. The Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Detroit's offense is much better against left handed pitching. The Tigers go against Reid Detmers here. Riley Greene has a good history against him. Detmers has also allowed 17 runs in his last four starts. He has walked 11 batters in those four starts. That matters here since Detroit has the highest walk rate in the majors against left handed pitching.

Troy Melton is in the top 11% of all pitchers in expected ERA and top 19% of all pitchers in expected batting average. Melton has allowed a grand total of three runs in his last four starts. 

Detroit is the much better team.

Take the Tigers. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Seattle Mariners are dead last in the majors in both weighted on base average and wRC+ against left handed pitching this year. Seymour is a quality lefty for the Rays. He is a soft tosser who has great exit velocity numbers allowed. He has top 20% in baseball numbers on expected batting average allowed and expected ERA. He should be a tough matchup for this Seattle lineup still without star Julio Rodriguez.

Hancock has high potential for the Mariners, but he has been much worse on the road. Tampa Bay has a great top of the order, and this team has been lights out at home this season. The Rays are 35-14 at home.

Seattle is just 20-29 on the road, and they are 4-6 in their last 10 games. The line has moved down here, and I think there is value on the home team.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* Walker Buehler had pitched decent earlier in the season, but the advanced metrics suggested he was due for regression. He has been crushed in his last two starts. Buehler doesn't have the overpowering swing and miss stuff he had a few years ago. 

Trey Yesavage has a 3.31 ERA and a 3.11 expected ERA. Yesavage is in the top 8% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average. The young right hander has excellent stuff.

San Diego is second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Blue Jays have had an extremely low batting average on balls in play of late, and I think positive regression is coming for the Jays offense. 

The Blue Jays have a big pitching advantage here and I'll take the plus money.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Astros* The Houston Astros start Hunter Brown in this one. Brown is coming off a bad start, but for the whole season his advanced numbers look very good. He is in the 93rd percentile in expected batting average allowed. He is in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. 

Cal Quantrill is in the 22nd percentile in expected ERA. Quantrill has been very fortunate when it comes to batting average on balls in play this year, and that is unlikely to continue through the whole season. Quantrill doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and the Astros lineup has been hitting the ball well on the road of late. 

Texas hits lefties well, but the Rangers have struggled badly against right handed pitching. 

Brown had one bad start, but he is a much better pitcher than Quantrill. I think we are getting a discount on the price here.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The New York Yankees are 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. New York isn't the same lineup they were earlier in the season. Shane McClanahan is coming off a good start, and his home splits during his career have been excellent. 

Tampa Bay is sixth in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Gerrit Cole has a 4.01 ERA and a 4.40 FIP on the season. Cole's strikeout rate is down quite a bit, and his average exit velocity allowed is very high. 

Tampa Bay is 32-13 at home, and the Rays have the lineup advantage with the Yankees shorthanded on offense right now. 

I'll back the Rays at this short price.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 31-13 at home this season. They were shut down by Cam Schlittler last night. Schlittler is a dominant starter, but Will Warren starts here for the Yankees and he is inconsistent. Warren has a 5.04 ERA in his last five starts. He also has a 5.82 xERA during those five starts. 

Tampa Bay starts Ian Seymour, who has looked very solid in his time on the mound. Seymour is in the top 25% of all pitchers in expected ERA and top 15% of all pitchers in expected batting average. He doesn't throw hard, but he induces soft contact and has multiple plus pitches.

The Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 games. I think they are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers given their current state.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been atrocious of late. Toronto is struggling to put anything together. They go to one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league here. 

Seattle has been a huge disappointment on offense. They had a big game yesterday, but against Trey Yesavage who I rate very highly, I don't trust Seattle without Rodriguez. 

Yesavage has good command of multiple pitches and usually avoids giving up the big inning. 

Emerson Hancock has good stuff, and I think he is a breakout candidate in the next year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* Casey Mize is an underrated starter. Mize has a 2.38 ERA and a 2.20 FIP in his last six starts. Mize has 3 walks and 33 strikeouts in those six starts. He's rounding into form, and he was always projected as an elite right handed pitcher. 

Kumar Rocker is a couple notches below Mize. The Texas bullpen has performed a great deal behind the Tigers bullpen in the last month too. Rocker struggles with left handed bats, and the Tigers have several above average lefties who have a good matchup against him here.

After a slow start, the Tigers have played much better of late.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Brewers ML* Brandon Woodruff is one of the best right handed pitchers in the National League. Woodruff ranks in the top 8% of all pitchers in expected ERA. Woodruff has thrown 11 and 2/3 innings since coming back from an injury. He has allowed only 2 hits and 0 runs in those two starts. He has 2 walks and 16 strikeouts in those contests.

Merrill Kelly is past his prime, and Kelly has struggled badly this year. Kelly has an ERA over 8 at home this season. Kelly is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average. 

Arizona has been great against lefties this year, but they are really weak against right handed pitching. The Brewers have the deeper lineup.

Milwaukee's bullpen and defense are superior, and they have a huge starting pitching edge here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians did get De Lauter back, but Jose Ramirez is still out and this is still a bottom five offense in the majors. They have hit the ball a bit better of late, but I don't trust this lineup to be consistent. 

The White Sox lineup has the highest batting average on balls in play during the last seven days. They have been very fortunate with those batted balls of late. Gavin Williams is a good starting pitcher who does a good job keeping the ball and inducing soft contact on the ground.

The total of 8.5 is pretty high for a game with one of the offenses being one of the weakest in the majors. Cleveland also has a really good bullpen.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals have a top six offense in baseball when at home, and a lot of that performance has come of late in the hot air in Kansas City. The Royals have seen six of their last seven games finish at 11 runs or more. Three of their last four have finished at 14 runs or more. 

Shane McClanahan has really struggled of late. He has a 4.94 ERA and a 5.71 xERA in his last five starts. McClanahan has allowed a whopping .383 wOBA against this KC lineup.

Seth Lugo has allowed a very high .389 wOBA against this Rays lineup. Lugo isn't the pitcher he was a few seasons ago.

The weather calls for 90 degrees and winds out about 13 mph at game time here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wrigley Field is changed by the winds as much as any park in the majors. That is especially true when the temperature is hot. The forecast here calls for 91 degrees and winds blowing out to center at 16 mph. The ball should be jumping in this one.

Walker Buehler has pitched pretty well of late, but this is the toughest situation he has pitched in for quite a while. The Cubs lineup has a solid .338 wOBA against Buehler. 

Colin Rea has allowed a .381 wOBA against this Padres lineup. Rea is really up against it in this one. The Padres have hit right handed pitching much better than lefties.

Both of these pitchers have much worse ERA's in day baseball games, and the situation here is very tough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mackenzie Gore has pitched well this season. He has also pitched deep into the game on a regular basis. 

The Cleveland Guardians offense is likely the worst in baseball without their top two hitters. Cleveland really struggles to string together hits. 

Joey Cantillo has been excellent in his last three starts. The Rangers are a below average lineup, and they haven't hit lefties very well this season.

It is hot for this one, but the winds are blowing in a bit. The home plate umpire is a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Joe Ryan here. Ryan has been remarkably consistent this year. Ryan is in the top 5% of all pitchers in baseball in walk rate. He is also in top 15% of all pitchers in strikeout rate. His pure stuff is very good, and Ryan is in the top 20% of all pitchers in expected batting average and expected ERA. 

Mike Burrows has a 7.05 ERA at home this season. He is in the bottom 25% of all pitchers in strikeout rate and his WHIP is a very high 1.50. 

Minnesota's offense is as hot as any offense in the majors right now. They have been elite against right handed pitching. The Twins are hitting for power of late.

I'll back Ryan and the Twins at the short price.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wrigley Field is the most weather dependent baseball park in the majors. The weather here calls for a game time temperature in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at about 11 mph. This is a big plus for the over. 

Shota Imanaga starts for the Cubs here, and he has allowed 15 home runs in his last seven starts. Imanaga is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he has struggled badly when pitching at Wrigley with the wind blowing out.

Griffin Canning starts for the Padres. Canning has a 7.38 ERA and a 5.42 FIP. Canning is allowing 1.69 home runs per nine innings. He is giving up loads of hard contact. 

The Cubs offense has come alive in the last couple weeks. I see them getting to Canning in this one.

Both bullpens have been heavily used of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Houston ML* The Houston Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Hunter Brown is back, and he is one of the more underrated pitchers in the majors. Brown has allowed only 3 runs in 19 and 1/3 innings pitched this season. Brown has a great history against this Tigers lineup too. In 115 plate appearances against Brown, the Tigers lineup has a .196 batting average and a .252 weighted on base average.

Jack Flaherty is 1-8 on the season and he is in his first game back from the injured list. Flaherty is giving up all kinds of hard hit baseballs this year. The Astros lineup is finally starting to wake up.

Houston is second in the majors in bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. 

Take Houston. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners have scored 3 runs or less in 12 straight games. Seattle's offense is in a really bad funk. Cleveland is a relatively pitcher friendly park, and the wind is expected to be blowing in at 10-12 mph during this one. 

Slade Cecconi has a 2.91 ERA and a 3.45 FIP in his last eight starts. He has done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark and his walk rate is pretty low.

Logan Gilbert is a really good right handed starter. He has an ERA below 2 in his last six starts. The Guardians are without their top two hitters right now. This Cleveland lineup in its current state is definitely a bottom five lineup in the majors.

Both bullpens are in pretty good shape coming into this one too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are first in the majors by a wide margin in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Washington has played well away from home all season. 

Trevor Rogers has an ERA of 5.52 at home this year. Rogers is below average in just about all advanced metrics. He has been prone to giving up the big innings.

Andrew Alvarez is an above average left handed starter. The knock on him is he doesn't pitching deep into games. The Nationals bullpen is bad, so I do think betting part of this wager on the first five makes sense. 

On the whole though, Rogers has allowed a .397 wOBA against this Nationals lineup. Washington's advantage against lefties makes me grab the plus money price here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Athletics have been better on the road this season. Gage Jump has fantastic numbers so far this year, and he has had to pitch in Sacramento and Las Vegas. Those are extremely hitter friendly parks. Jump shows all the signs of being a future left handed star pitcher. 

Tyler Mahle has missed the last month with an injury. He isn't likely to pitch deep into the game in his current form. Mahle has been a below average pitcher, and he's backed by a bottom five bullpen in the majors. 

The Athletics bullpen is closer to league average. Jump is the better starting pitcher. The Athletics have good depth in the lineup as well. 

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals are easily first in the majors in both wOBA and wRC+ against left handed pitching. These young Nationals hitters have teed off on lefties all season long. Luzardo is a good pitcher, but he is prone to giving up big innings and these Nationals hit for power.

Poulin is the opener here for Littell. Littell is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in both average exit velocity allowed and expected ERA. The Phillies are averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last seven games. The offense is waking up of late. Littell has very poor numbers against this Phillies lineup in his career.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bobby Witt is injured and is doubtful to play in this one. The Royals piled up some runs in their home series against the Cardinals this past weekend, but they were right back to struggling on the road last night. The Royals are 28th in weighted on base average so far this season when playing away from home.

Shane McClanahan was shaky last game, but that was against an elite Dodgers offense. This Kansas City offense especially if they are without Witt is one of the weakest in baseball. 

The Tampa Bay offense is 24th in the majors in wOBA in the last month. Tampa Bay has scored 4 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins are first in the majors in wOBA in the last two weeks. Minnesota has averaged 9.2 runs per game in their last five games. This team is really hitting for power of late. 

The LA Dodgers are first in the majors in wOBA for the season. The Dodgers lineup is deep and loaded with power and versatility. 

Eric Lauer has pitched a bit better of late, but he has faced terrible lineups. This is the toughest test he has had in quite some time. Lauer has allowed the Twins lineup to have a .470 weighted on base average against him. In just 62 at bats, the Twins have 7 home runs against Lauer.

Zebby Matthews has thrown against a lot of weak lineups lately as well. The Dodgers are clearly a huge test. Matthews doesn't walk many hitters, but he also allows hard hit batted balls and doesn't miss many bats.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals have the much better offense in this one. Washington is first in the majors in runs scored per game. This young lineup has been really good this season. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have tailed off pretty badly of late. Tampa Bay is 4-6 in their last 10. The Rays offense has underwhelmed for quite a while now. 

Nick Martinez has advanced numbers much worse than his ERA would suggest. Andrew Alvarez has been racking up the strikeouts. 

I'll take the plus money.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Under* Chris Sale isn't quite as dominant as he once was, but he is still a really good left handed starting pitcher. Sale has a terrific 2.30 ERA and a 2.81 FIP on the season. Sale has done a great job keeping his average exit velocity allowed down. He is in the top 13% of all pitchers in baseball in that area. He is in the top 6% of all pitchers in chase rate. His slider is still one of the best pitches in baseball.

Kyle Harrison had one bad start in Las Vegas against the Athletics. That is a really bad park for pitchers. Harrison has been absolutely superb outside of that start. He has a 2.47 ERA, and Harrison is racking up nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. The Braves offense has slumped badly of late, and that has been especially true against left handed pitching. Atlanta is clearly missing Ronald Acuna Jr. 

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins offense is red hot of late. The Twins have scored 5 runs or more in 5 of their last 6 games. They are averaging 8.33 runs per game in their last three games. Mike Soroka has been good for the DBacks this year, but the advanced metrics believe he is due for some regression and the DBacks bullpen is slightly below average.

Arizona is top six in the majors in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties. The DBacks should get plenty of scoring chances against Prielipp here. The Twins bullpen is a big weakness too, and they will likely need to be used for quite a while in this one.

This total is set a little too low with the question marks for the pitching staffs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Joe Ryan in this one. Ryan has held this Rangers lineup to a .143 batting average and a .166 wOBA in 37 plate appearance. Ryan has a 3.17 ERA and a 2.89 FIP on the season thus far. He has elite command averaging walking just 1.75 batters per nine innings. He is racking up more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings. His fastball has some of the best movement of any pitcher in baseball.

Jack Leiter has a 4.97 ERA and a 4.53 FIP. Despite pitching in what has been the best pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors so far this year, Leiter just hasn't been very good. Minnesota's lineup comes into this game white hot. The Twins have scored 36 runs in their last five games. 

The Twins have a huge pitching edge, and the Minnesota lineup is much better as well.

I'll lay the short price.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane McClanahan has been tremendous in his comeback so far this season. He has allowed 13 runs in his last nine starts. McClanahan has elite stuff and his offspeed pitches move about as much as you'll see from anyone. 

Shohei Ohtani has been spectacular on the mound this season. He has started 11 games. He has allowed one run or fewer in 8 of his 11 games started this season. Ohtani just allowed more than 2 runs for the first time this season. Ohtani is in a good bounce back spot here against a Rays offense that has gone ice cold in recent contests.

This is an awkward start time in LA. The early start on get away day could lead to a couple key bats being out of the lineup. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros are 7th in wOBA and 6th in wRC+ against left handed pitching. The Astros have a lot of guys who match up well against Framber Valdez. Valdez has far worse advanced metrics this year. He ranks in the bottom 30% of all pitchers in almost all the major statistics. His old team has a strong lineup and they should get to him in this one.

Hunter Brown is coming off the injured list for this start. Brown is likely to be on a pitch count and not pitch as deep as normal into the game. The Astros bullpen is 25th in the majors in FIP and 26th in the majors in SIERA this season. It's a clear weakness. 

The Tigers offense has scored 9 runs or more in three of their last six games. 

This total is set extremely low for a game with this many pitching question marks. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers are tied for second in Major League Baseball averaging 5.36 runs per game. Tampa Bay's offense has slumped a bit lately, but they do have some power and some guys who hit lefties very well.

Eric Lauer has really bad advanced numbers. Lauer is in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in expected ERA and in the bottom 19% of all pitchers in expected batting average this season. Lauer has been fortunate in recent games, but he shouldn't be trusted. Lauer has allowed this Rays lineup to hit for a whopping .422 weighted on base average in 60 plate appearances too.

Nick Martinez is in the bottom 8% of all pitchers in expected batting average this year. He is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in strikeout percentage. This Dodgers lineup has great numbers against him, and it should be hard for him to navigate through this lineup without strikeout stuff.

Both bullpens rank in the bottom ten in ERA allowed in the last month as well as FIP. They are below average units.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cristopher Sanchez has pitched like the best pitcher in the majors this year. He is in the top 1% of all pitchers in chase rate. He has allowed three runs in his last seven starts combined. Sanchez should pile up the strikeouts here. 

Kyle Harrison has a 1.50 ERA at home this season. He is coming off a really poor outing against the Athletics on the road, but that is a really tough park for pitchers. He should look a lot better when he is back in Milwaukee.

Both of these offenses have been below average against left handed pitching this year. I think both teams will struggle to string together hits in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez has a 2.61 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last seven starts. The Texas offense is below average against left handed pitching.

Boston is a top 6 offense in baseball against left handed pitching, but they are 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom is still a very solid right handed starter, and I think he can get through this order pretty well.

Both of these bullpens are pretty solid. The weather is warm here and that's why this total has ticked up, but I like the pitching advantages. The wind is expected to be blowing sideways during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics -1.5* The Athletics lineup should like the Las Vegas home game here. The ball is flying in a big way here. The Athletics have the much more powerful lineup as compared to the Rockies. The A's are tied for 7th in the majors in home runs. The Rockies are 24th in the majors in home runs.

The Rockies are easily last in the majors in wRC+ against left handed pitching. Gage Jump is the expected pitcher here for the A's. I think Jump will be a really good starting pitcher in the big leagues. He has pitched extremely well in limited time so far this season. 

The A's have a hot hitting Kurtz and Rooker is starting to put things together again. The Rockies have been miserable away from home. 

Colorado is set to have a bullpen type game here. The A's have the big edge.

Take the A's -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are 23-13 on the road this season. Washington is also second in the majors in OPS against left handed pitching. Washington has several guys who crush lefties. '

San Francisco is 27-41 on the season. The Giants are just 12-18 at home. I think the market is still overpricing the Giants right now.

Robbie Ray is in the bottom 16% of all pitchers in expected ERA. He no longer gets the high chase rates that he did a few years ago. 

Foster Griffin has better overall numbers than Ray. The Giants have been pretty good against lefties, but they aren't as elite as the Nationals in that area.

The Nationals hit the ball well and I think they should be small favorites here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are 22-13 on the road this season. Washington averages the most runs per game of any team in the majors. Adrian Houser starts for the Giants, and he has been really bad this season. Houser has allowed a .354 wOBA against this Nationals lineup in his career too. Houser ranks in the bottom 9% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average and the bottom 12% of all pitchers in expected ERA.

Andrew Alvarez is a high upside lefty for the Nationals. Alvarez has looked pretty good in limited time this season. The Giants offense has been very good of late, but they carry an extremely high batting average on balls in play that time. I still believe the Nationals are the better offense. The Nationals have the better starting pitcher here too.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball. Atlanta is 23-10 on the road this season. While Grant Holmes isn't a great pitcher, he gives them a clear edge over bulk pitcher Erick Fedde for the White Sox in this one.

Fedde has a 4.94 ERA, but his FIP is all the way up at 6.11. Fedde is backed by a White Sox bullpen that is a bottom ten bullpen in baseball. The Braves lineup has a great .358 weighted on base average against Fedde in a large sample size of 124 at bats. Acuna is 6/19 with 3 home runs against Fedde.

The Braves bullpen is a top five bullpen. The Braves have a top three offense in baseball.

Lay the price here.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Phillies bullpen is first in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. They are second in SIERA. This bullpen is throwing it really well. The Toronto bullpen is average or below average in all the major advanced statistics in the last 30 days.

Dylan Cease has pitched well this year, but he is coming off an injury. In his rehab start in AAA he allowed five runs in just four innings. He is likely to be on a slightly smaller pitch count than normal here as well.

Zack Wheeler has a 2.31 ERA and a 3.21 expected ERA. He had one bad start and that was against the LA Dodgers. In 81 plate appearances, this Blue Jays lineup has a poor .275 weighted on base average against Wheeler. The Phillies have a .379 wOBA against Cease in 66 plate appearances.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* Patrick Corbin has held it together this year a bit better than other seasons in recent past, but the advanced metrics show he still isn't very good. He has a 3.98 ERA and a 5.23 expected ERA. Corbin has an expected batting average that is in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in the majors. Corbin's history against this Phillies lineup is awful. The Phillies lineup has a .430 weighted on base average against Corbin. 

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed one run in his last 50 innings pitched. He has a great .263 wOBA allowed against the Blue Jays lineup. Sanchez has been superb, and the Blue Jays have struggled badly against lefties all season. 

In the last 30 days, the Phillies bullpen has the best bullpen SIERA of any team in the majors. The Blue Jays are 17th in that same metric.

The Phillies offense has the lowest BABIP in the majors in the last 30 days. They are due for some positive regression.

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals offense is the real deal. They are first in the majors in runs per game at 5.40 runs per contest this season. Washington is 21-12 on the road so far this season. I think they are a live dog on the road in this one.

Arizona has been great against left handed pitching, but the DBacks are 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Cade Cavalli is a good young right handed starter. He's striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. I think Cavalli can pitch well in this one.

Soroka has thrown it well for the DBacks this year, but the Nationals are elite against right handed pitching. They have a lot of power, and this is park where home runs are very attainable. 

I'll take the plus money on the underdog with the strong lineup here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas has been the single most pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors in the past year. Runs are suppressed here by the park in a big way.

The Cleveland offense is 24th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 26th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom isn't the pitcher he once was, but he is still definitely a good right handed starter. Degrom should be able to avoid those big innings allowed against this Guardians lineup.

Texas is 28th in wOBA at home. The Rangers are 27th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Cantillo can generate quite a few swings and misses, and this Texas lineup strikes out the second most of anyone against left handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers have woke up on the offensive end. Detroit has scored 32 runs in their last four games. This Tigers offense has a low batting average on balls in play for the year and they have finally broken out of a long slump in recent games.

The Seattle Mariners offense is in the top six in the majors in all the primary categories in the last couple weeks. Seattle has been great on the road in recent seasons. 

Miller has been really good this year, but he doesn't pitch deep into games and I do think will regress over time. Montero is a really inconsistent pitcher. He is likely to struggle here.

The weather is a big plus here too. Comerica is a park where the wind blowing out matters a lot. The weather here calls for sustained winds blowing out about 14 mph during this one. There are multiple 60% plus systems toward the over in this situation. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on A's ML* Can we really trust the Cubs here? The Cubs offense is worst in baseball in recent weeks. J.T. Ginn is an above average pitcher. Ginn is a ground ball pitcher which helps a lot with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field like it is for this game. 

The Athletics are a good offense. This team has been better on the road than they have at home. They have a deep lineup and plenty of power. They are up against Imanaga for the Cubs. He has had major troubles at home with the wind blowing out. Imanaga is a fly ball pitcher and the winds blowing out at Wrigley is a terrible setup for him. 

Imanaga has allowed 20 runs in his last 15 innings pitched. There's no reason to expect him to pitch well here.

The Cubs are overrated here by the oddsmakers, especially given the weather conditions.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* Cristopher Sanchez has pitched like a top two or three pitcher in the majors this year. Sanchez is on an insane run in his last five starts. He hasn't allowed a run in five starts. Sanchez has 39 innings pitched in his last five starts with no runs allowed. He has three walks and 45 strikeouts in those five starts. He has a 1.47 ERA and a sparkling 1.82 FIP this season. 

Walker Buehler is now a below average starting pitcher. He has an expected batting average in the bottom 14% of all pitchers in the majors. Buehler doesn't have overpowering stuff at this point in his career. 

The Padres are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They now face arguably the best lefty in baseball right now.

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Eric Lauer is coming off a good start, but he is a really low level starting pitcher. He has a 5.95 ERA and a 6.55 FIP on the season. Lauer ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in baseball in fastball velocity. He also is in the 11th percentile in expected ERA. He is a soft tosser who gives up a lot of hard contact. Lauer has a terrible .387 wOBA allowed against this DBacks lineup.

Mike Soroka is having a good season. Soroka is a pretty good starting pitcher, but he's up against arguably the best offense in baseball. The Dodgers were silenced last night, and I think they'll get the offense back going here. 

These bullpens aren't very good and both are heavily used of late. There will be some key arms not available in this contest.

Take the over.