*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Seattle Mariners are dead last in the majors in both weighted on base average and wRC+ against left handed pitching this year. Seymour is a quality lefty for the Rays. He is a soft tosser who has great exit velocity numbers allowed. He has top 20% in baseball numbers on expected batting average allowed and expected ERA. He should be a tough matchup for this Seattle lineup still without star Julio Rodriguez.

Hancock has high potential for the Mariners, but he has been much worse on the road. Tampa Bay has a great top of the order, and this team has been lights out at home this season. The Rays are 35-14 at home.

Seattle is just 20-29 on the road, and they are 4-6 in their last 10 games. The line has moved down here, and I think there is value on the home team.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* Walker Buehler had pitched decent earlier in the season, but the advanced metrics suggested he was due for regression. He has been crushed in his last two starts. Buehler doesn't have the overpowering swing and miss stuff he had a few years ago. 

Trey Yesavage has a 3.31 ERA and a 3.11 expected ERA. Yesavage is in the top 8% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average. The young right hander has excellent stuff.

San Diego is second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Blue Jays have had an extremely low batting average on balls in play of late, and I think positive regression is coming for the Jays offense. 

The Blue Jays have a big pitching advantage here and I'll take the plus money.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Astros* The Houston Astros start Hunter Brown in this one. Brown is coming off a bad start, but for the whole season his advanced numbers look very good. He is in the 93rd percentile in expected batting average allowed. He is in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. 

Cal Quantrill is in the 22nd percentile in expected ERA. Quantrill has been very fortunate when it comes to batting average on balls in play this year, and that is unlikely to continue through the whole season. Quantrill doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and the Astros lineup has been hitting the ball well on the road of late. 

Texas hits lefties well, but the Rangers have struggled badly against right handed pitching. 

Brown had one bad start, but he is a much better pitcher than Quantrill. I think we are getting a discount on the price here.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The New York Yankees are 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. New York isn't the same lineup they were earlier in the season. Shane McClanahan is coming off a good start, and his home splits during his career have been excellent. 

Tampa Bay is sixth in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Gerrit Cole has a 4.01 ERA and a 4.40 FIP on the season. Cole's strikeout rate is down quite a bit, and his average exit velocity allowed is very high. 

Tampa Bay is 32-13 at home, and the Rays have the lineup advantage with the Yankees shorthanded on offense right now. 

I'll back the Rays at this short price.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 31-13 at home this season. They were shut down by Cam Schlittler last night. Schlittler is a dominant starter, but Will Warren starts here for the Yankees and he is inconsistent. Warren has a 5.04 ERA in his last five starts. He also has a 5.82 xERA during those five starts. 

Tampa Bay starts Ian Seymour, who has looked very solid in his time on the mound. Seymour is in the top 25% of all pitchers in expected ERA and top 15% of all pitchers in expected batting average. He doesn't throw hard, but he induces soft contact and has multiple plus pitches.

The Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 games. I think they are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers given their current state.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been atrocious of late. Toronto is struggling to put anything together. They go to one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league here. 

Seattle has been a huge disappointment on offense. They had a big game yesterday, but against Trey Yesavage who I rate very highly, I don't trust Seattle without Rodriguez. 

Yesavage has good command of multiple pitches and usually avoids giving up the big inning. 

Emerson Hancock has good stuff, and I think he is a breakout candidate in the next year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* Casey Mize is an underrated starter. Mize has a 2.38 ERA and a 2.20 FIP in his last six starts. Mize has 3 walks and 33 strikeouts in those six starts. He's rounding into form, and he was always projected as an elite right handed pitcher. 

Kumar Rocker is a couple notches below Mize. The Texas bullpen has performed a great deal behind the Tigers bullpen in the last month too. Rocker struggles with left handed bats, and the Tigers have several above average lefties who have a good matchup against him here.

After a slow start, the Tigers have played much better of late.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Brewers ML* Brandon Woodruff is one of the best right handed pitchers in the National League. Woodruff ranks in the top 8% of all pitchers in expected ERA. Woodruff has thrown 11 and 2/3 innings since coming back from an injury. He has allowed only 2 hits and 0 runs in those two starts. He has 2 walks and 16 strikeouts in those contests.

Merrill Kelly is past his prime, and Kelly has struggled badly this year. Kelly has an ERA over 8 at home this season. Kelly is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average. 

Arizona has been great against lefties this year, but they are really weak against right handed pitching. The Brewers have the deeper lineup.

Milwaukee's bullpen and defense are superior, and they have a huge starting pitching edge here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians did get De Lauter back, but Jose Ramirez is still out and this is still a bottom five offense in the majors. They have hit the ball a bit better of late, but I don't trust this lineup to be consistent. 

The White Sox lineup has the highest batting average on balls in play during the last seven days. They have been very fortunate with those batted balls of late. Gavin Williams is a good starting pitcher who does a good job keeping the ball and inducing soft contact on the ground.

The total of 8.5 is pretty high for a game with one of the offenses being one of the weakest in the majors. Cleveland also has a really good bullpen.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals have a top six offense in baseball when at home, and a lot of that performance has come of late in the hot air in Kansas City. The Royals have seen six of their last seven games finish at 11 runs or more. Three of their last four have finished at 14 runs or more. 

Shane McClanahan has really struggled of late. He has a 4.94 ERA and a 5.71 xERA in his last five starts. McClanahan has allowed a whopping .383 wOBA against this KC lineup.

Seth Lugo has allowed a very high .389 wOBA against this Rays lineup. Lugo isn't the pitcher he was a few seasons ago.

The weather calls for 90 degrees and winds out about 13 mph at game time here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wrigley Field is changed by the winds as much as any park in the majors. That is especially true when the temperature is hot. The forecast here calls for 91 degrees and winds blowing out to center at 16 mph. The ball should be jumping in this one.

Walker Buehler has pitched pretty well of late, but this is the toughest situation he has pitched in for quite a while. The Cubs lineup has a solid .338 wOBA against Buehler. 

Colin Rea has allowed a .381 wOBA against this Padres lineup. Rea is really up against it in this one. The Padres have hit right handed pitching much better than lefties.

Both of these pitchers have much worse ERA's in day baseball games, and the situation here is very tough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mackenzie Gore has pitched well this season. He has also pitched deep into the game on a regular basis. 

The Cleveland Guardians offense is likely the worst in baseball without their top two hitters. Cleveland really struggles to string together hits. 

Joey Cantillo has been excellent in his last three starts. The Rangers are a below average lineup, and they haven't hit lefties very well this season.

It is hot for this one, but the winds are blowing in a bit. The home plate umpire is a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Joe Ryan here. Ryan has been remarkably consistent this year. Ryan is in the top 5% of all pitchers in baseball in walk rate. He is also in top 15% of all pitchers in strikeout rate. His pure stuff is very good, and Ryan is in the top 20% of all pitchers in expected batting average and expected ERA. 

Mike Burrows has a 7.05 ERA at home this season. He is in the bottom 25% of all pitchers in strikeout rate and his WHIP is a very high 1.50. 

Minnesota's offense is as hot as any offense in the majors right now. They have been elite against right handed pitching. The Twins are hitting for power of late.

I'll back Ryan and the Twins at the short price.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wrigley Field is the most weather dependent baseball park in the majors. The weather here calls for a game time temperature in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at about 11 mph. This is a big plus for the over. 

Shota Imanaga starts for the Cubs here, and he has allowed 15 home runs in his last seven starts. Imanaga is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he has struggled badly when pitching at Wrigley with the wind blowing out.

Griffin Canning starts for the Padres. Canning has a 7.38 ERA and a 5.42 FIP. Canning is allowing 1.69 home runs per nine innings. He is giving up loads of hard contact. 

The Cubs offense has come alive in the last couple weeks. I see them getting to Canning in this one.

Both bullpens have been heavily used of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Houston ML* The Houston Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Hunter Brown is back, and he is one of the more underrated pitchers in the majors. Brown has allowed only 3 runs in 19 and 1/3 innings pitched this season. Brown has a great history against this Tigers lineup too. In 115 plate appearances against Brown, the Tigers lineup has a .196 batting average and a .252 weighted on base average.

Jack Flaherty is 1-8 on the season and he is in his first game back from the injured list. Flaherty is giving up all kinds of hard hit baseballs this year. The Astros lineup is finally starting to wake up.

Houston is second in the majors in bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. 

Take Houston. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners have scored 3 runs or less in 12 straight games. Seattle's offense is in a really bad funk. Cleveland is a relatively pitcher friendly park, and the wind is expected to be blowing in at 10-12 mph during this one. 

Slade Cecconi has a 2.91 ERA and a 3.45 FIP in his last eight starts. He has done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark and his walk rate is pretty low.

Logan Gilbert is a really good right handed starter. He has an ERA below 2 in his last six starts. The Guardians are without their top two hitters right now. This Cleveland lineup in its current state is definitely a bottom five lineup in the majors.

Both bullpens are in pretty good shape coming into this one too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are first in the majors by a wide margin in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Washington has played well away from home all season. 

Trevor Rogers has an ERA of 5.52 at home this year. Rogers is below average in just about all advanced metrics. He has been prone to giving up the big innings.

Andrew Alvarez is an above average left handed starter. The knock on him is he doesn't pitching deep into games. The Nationals bullpen is bad, so I do think betting part of this wager on the first five makes sense. 

On the whole though, Rogers has allowed a .397 wOBA against this Nationals lineup. Washington's advantage against lefties makes me grab the plus money price here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Athletics have been better on the road this season. Gage Jump has fantastic numbers so far this year, and he has had to pitch in Sacramento and Las Vegas. Those are extremely hitter friendly parks. Jump shows all the signs of being a future left handed star pitcher. 

Tyler Mahle has missed the last month with an injury. He isn't likely to pitch deep into the game in his current form. Mahle has been a below average pitcher, and he's backed by a bottom five bullpen in the majors. 

The Athletics bullpen is closer to league average. Jump is the better starting pitcher. The Athletics have good depth in the lineup as well. 

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals are easily first in the majors in both wOBA and wRC+ against left handed pitching. These young Nationals hitters have teed off on lefties all season long. Luzardo is a good pitcher, but he is prone to giving up big innings and these Nationals hit for power.

Poulin is the opener here for Littell. Littell is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in both average exit velocity allowed and expected ERA. The Phillies are averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last seven games. The offense is waking up of late. Littell has very poor numbers against this Phillies lineup in his career.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bobby Witt is injured and is doubtful to play in this one. The Royals piled up some runs in their home series against the Cardinals this past weekend, but they were right back to struggling on the road last night. The Royals are 28th in weighted on base average so far this season when playing away from home.

Shane McClanahan was shaky last game, but that was against an elite Dodgers offense. This Kansas City offense especially if they are without Witt is one of the weakest in baseball. 

The Tampa Bay offense is 24th in the majors in wOBA in the last month. Tampa Bay has scored 4 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins are first in the majors in wOBA in the last two weeks. Minnesota has averaged 9.2 runs per game in their last five games. This team is really hitting for power of late. 

The LA Dodgers are first in the majors in wOBA for the season. The Dodgers lineup is deep and loaded with power and versatility. 

Eric Lauer has pitched a bit better of late, but he has faced terrible lineups. This is the toughest test he has had in quite some time. Lauer has allowed the Twins lineup to have a .470 weighted on base average against him. In just 62 at bats, the Twins have 7 home runs against Lauer.

Zebby Matthews has thrown against a lot of weak lineups lately as well. The Dodgers are clearly a huge test. Matthews doesn't walk many hitters, but he also allows hard hit batted balls and doesn't miss many bats.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals have the much better offense in this one. Washington is first in the majors in runs scored per game. This young lineup has been really good this season. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have tailed off pretty badly of late. Tampa Bay is 4-6 in their last 10. The Rays offense has underwhelmed for quite a while now. 

Nick Martinez has advanced numbers much worse than his ERA would suggest. Andrew Alvarez has been racking up the strikeouts. 

I'll take the plus money.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Under* Chris Sale isn't quite as dominant as he once was, but he is still a really good left handed starting pitcher. Sale has a terrific 2.30 ERA and a 2.81 FIP on the season. Sale has done a great job keeping his average exit velocity allowed down. He is in the top 13% of all pitchers in baseball in that area. He is in the top 6% of all pitchers in chase rate. His slider is still one of the best pitches in baseball.

Kyle Harrison had one bad start in Las Vegas against the Athletics. That is a really bad park for pitchers. Harrison has been absolutely superb outside of that start. He has a 2.47 ERA, and Harrison is racking up nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. The Braves offense has slumped badly of late, and that has been especially true against left handed pitching. Atlanta is clearly missing Ronald Acuna Jr. 

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins offense is red hot of late. The Twins have scored 5 runs or more in 5 of their last 6 games. They are averaging 8.33 runs per game in their last three games. Mike Soroka has been good for the DBacks this year, but the advanced metrics believe he is due for some regression and the DBacks bullpen is slightly below average.

Arizona is top six in the majors in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties. The DBacks should get plenty of scoring chances against Prielipp here. The Twins bullpen is a big weakness too, and they will likely need to be used for quite a while in this one.

This total is set a little too low with the question marks for the pitching staffs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Joe Ryan in this one. Ryan has held this Rangers lineup to a .143 batting average and a .166 wOBA in 37 plate appearance. Ryan has a 3.17 ERA and a 2.89 FIP on the season thus far. He has elite command averaging walking just 1.75 batters per nine innings. He is racking up more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings. His fastball has some of the best movement of any pitcher in baseball.

Jack Leiter has a 4.97 ERA and a 4.53 FIP. Despite pitching in what has been the best pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors so far this year, Leiter just hasn't been very good. Minnesota's lineup comes into this game white hot. The Twins have scored 36 runs in their last five games. 

The Twins have a huge pitching edge, and the Minnesota lineup is much better as well.

I'll lay the short price.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane McClanahan has been tremendous in his comeback so far this season. He has allowed 13 runs in his last nine starts. McClanahan has elite stuff and his offspeed pitches move about as much as you'll see from anyone. 

Shohei Ohtani has been spectacular on the mound this season. He has started 11 games. He has allowed one run or fewer in 8 of his 11 games started this season. Ohtani just allowed more than 2 runs for the first time this season. Ohtani is in a good bounce back spot here against a Rays offense that has gone ice cold in recent contests.

This is an awkward start time in LA. The early start on get away day could lead to a couple key bats being out of the lineup. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros are 7th in wOBA and 6th in wRC+ against left handed pitching. The Astros have a lot of guys who match up well against Framber Valdez. Valdez has far worse advanced metrics this year. He ranks in the bottom 30% of all pitchers in almost all the major statistics. His old team has a strong lineup and they should get to him in this one.

Hunter Brown is coming off the injured list for this start. Brown is likely to be on a pitch count and not pitch as deep as normal into the game. The Astros bullpen is 25th in the majors in FIP and 26th in the majors in SIERA this season. It's a clear weakness. 

The Tigers offense has scored 9 runs or more in three of their last six games. 

This total is set extremely low for a game with this many pitching question marks. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers are tied for second in Major League Baseball averaging 5.36 runs per game. Tampa Bay's offense has slumped a bit lately, but they do have some power and some guys who hit lefties very well.

Eric Lauer has really bad advanced numbers. Lauer is in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in expected ERA and in the bottom 19% of all pitchers in expected batting average this season. Lauer has been fortunate in recent games, but he shouldn't be trusted. Lauer has allowed this Rays lineup to hit for a whopping .422 weighted on base average in 60 plate appearances too.

Nick Martinez is in the bottom 8% of all pitchers in expected batting average this year. He is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in strikeout percentage. This Dodgers lineup has great numbers against him, and it should be hard for him to navigate through this lineup without strikeout stuff.

Both bullpens rank in the bottom ten in ERA allowed in the last month as well as FIP. They are below average units.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cristopher Sanchez has pitched like the best pitcher in the majors this year. He is in the top 1% of all pitchers in chase rate. He has allowed three runs in his last seven starts combined. Sanchez should pile up the strikeouts here. 

Kyle Harrison has a 1.50 ERA at home this season. He is coming off a really poor outing against the Athletics on the road, but that is a really tough park for pitchers. He should look a lot better when he is back in Milwaukee.

Both of these offenses have been below average against left handed pitching this year. I think both teams will struggle to string together hits in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez has a 2.61 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last seven starts. The Texas offense is below average against left handed pitching.

Boston is a top 6 offense in baseball against left handed pitching, but they are 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom is still a very solid right handed starter, and I think he can get through this order pretty well.

Both of these bullpens are pretty solid. The weather is warm here and that's why this total has ticked up, but I like the pitching advantages. The wind is expected to be blowing sideways during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics -1.5* The Athletics lineup should like the Las Vegas home game here. The ball is flying in a big way here. The Athletics have the much more powerful lineup as compared to the Rockies. The A's are tied for 7th in the majors in home runs. The Rockies are 24th in the majors in home runs.

The Rockies are easily last in the majors in wRC+ against left handed pitching. Gage Jump is the expected pitcher here for the A's. I think Jump will be a really good starting pitcher in the big leagues. He has pitched extremely well in limited time so far this season. 

The A's have a hot hitting Kurtz and Rooker is starting to put things together again. The Rockies have been miserable away from home. 

Colorado is set to have a bullpen type game here. The A's have the big edge.

Take the A's -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are 23-13 on the road this season. Washington is also second in the majors in OPS against left handed pitching. Washington has several guys who crush lefties. '

San Francisco is 27-41 on the season. The Giants are just 12-18 at home. I think the market is still overpricing the Giants right now.

Robbie Ray is in the bottom 16% of all pitchers in expected ERA. He no longer gets the high chase rates that he did a few years ago. 

Foster Griffin has better overall numbers than Ray. The Giants have been pretty good against lefties, but they aren't as elite as the Nationals in that area.

The Nationals hit the ball well and I think they should be small favorites here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are 22-13 on the road this season. Washington averages the most runs per game of any team in the majors. Adrian Houser starts for the Giants, and he has been really bad this season. Houser has allowed a .354 wOBA against this Nationals lineup in his career too. Houser ranks in the bottom 9% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average and the bottom 12% of all pitchers in expected ERA.

Andrew Alvarez is a high upside lefty for the Nationals. Alvarez has looked pretty good in limited time this season. The Giants offense has been very good of late, but they carry an extremely high batting average on balls in play that time. I still believe the Nationals are the better offense. The Nationals have the better starting pitcher here too.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball. Atlanta is 23-10 on the road this season. While Grant Holmes isn't a great pitcher, he gives them a clear edge over bulk pitcher Erick Fedde for the White Sox in this one.

Fedde has a 4.94 ERA, but his FIP is all the way up at 6.11. Fedde is backed by a White Sox bullpen that is a bottom ten bullpen in baseball. The Braves lineup has a great .358 weighted on base average against Fedde in a large sample size of 124 at bats. Acuna is 6/19 with 3 home runs against Fedde.

The Braves bullpen is a top five bullpen. The Braves have a top three offense in baseball.

Lay the price here.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Phillies bullpen is first in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. They are second in SIERA. This bullpen is throwing it really well. The Toronto bullpen is average or below average in all the major advanced statistics in the last 30 days.

Dylan Cease has pitched well this year, but he is coming off an injury. In his rehab start in AAA he allowed five runs in just four innings. He is likely to be on a slightly smaller pitch count than normal here as well.

Zack Wheeler has a 2.31 ERA and a 3.21 expected ERA. He had one bad start and that was against the LA Dodgers. In 81 plate appearances, this Blue Jays lineup has a poor .275 weighted on base average against Wheeler. The Phillies have a .379 wOBA against Cease in 66 plate appearances.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* Patrick Corbin has held it together this year a bit better than other seasons in recent past, but the advanced metrics show he still isn't very good. He has a 3.98 ERA and a 5.23 expected ERA. Corbin has an expected batting average that is in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in the majors. Corbin's history against this Phillies lineup is awful. The Phillies lineup has a .430 weighted on base average against Corbin. 

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed one run in his last 50 innings pitched. He has a great .263 wOBA allowed against the Blue Jays lineup. Sanchez has been superb, and the Blue Jays have struggled badly against lefties all season. 

In the last 30 days, the Phillies bullpen has the best bullpen SIERA of any team in the majors. The Blue Jays are 17th in that same metric.

The Phillies offense has the lowest BABIP in the majors in the last 30 days. They are due for some positive regression.

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals offense is the real deal. They are first in the majors in runs per game at 5.40 runs per contest this season. Washington is 21-12 on the road so far this season. I think they are a live dog on the road in this one.

Arizona has been great against left handed pitching, but the DBacks are 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Cade Cavalli is a good young right handed starter. He's striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. I think Cavalli can pitch well in this one.

Soroka has thrown it well for the DBacks this year, but the Nationals are elite against right handed pitching. They have a lot of power, and this is park where home runs are very attainable. 

I'll take the plus money on the underdog with the strong lineup here.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas has been the single most pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors in the past year. Runs are suppressed here by the park in a big way.

The Cleveland offense is 24th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 26th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom isn't the pitcher he once was, but he is still definitely a good right handed starter. Degrom should be able to avoid those big innings allowed against this Guardians lineup.

Texas is 28th in wOBA at home. The Rangers are 27th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Cantillo can generate quite a few swings and misses, and this Texas lineup strikes out the second most of anyone against left handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers have woke up on the offensive end. Detroit has scored 32 runs in their last four games. This Tigers offense has a low batting average on balls in play for the year and they have finally broken out of a long slump in recent games.

The Seattle Mariners offense is in the top six in the majors in all the primary categories in the last couple weeks. Seattle has been great on the road in recent seasons. 

Miller has been really good this year, but he doesn't pitch deep into games and I do think will regress over time. Montero is a really inconsistent pitcher. He is likely to struggle here.

The weather is a big plus here too. Comerica is a park where the wind blowing out matters a lot. The weather here calls for sustained winds blowing out about 14 mph during this one. There are multiple 60% plus systems toward the over in this situation. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on A's ML* Can we really trust the Cubs here? The Cubs offense is worst in baseball in recent weeks. J.T. Ginn is an above average pitcher. Ginn is a ground ball pitcher which helps a lot with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field like it is for this game. 

The Athletics are a good offense. This team has been better on the road than they have at home. They have a deep lineup and plenty of power. They are up against Imanaga for the Cubs. He has had major troubles at home with the wind blowing out. Imanaga is a fly ball pitcher and the winds blowing out at Wrigley is a terrible setup for him. 

Imanaga has allowed 20 runs in his last 15 innings pitched. There's no reason to expect him to pitch well here.

The Cubs are overrated here by the oddsmakers, especially given the weather conditions.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* Cristopher Sanchez has pitched like a top two or three pitcher in the majors this year. Sanchez is on an insane run in his last five starts. He hasn't allowed a run in five starts. Sanchez has 39 innings pitched in his last five starts with no runs allowed. He has three walks and 45 strikeouts in those five starts. He has a 1.47 ERA and a sparkling 1.82 FIP this season. 

Walker Buehler is now a below average starting pitcher. He has an expected batting average in the bottom 14% of all pitchers in the majors. Buehler doesn't have overpowering stuff at this point in his career. 

The Padres are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They now face arguably the best lefty in baseball right now.

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Eric Lauer is coming off a good start, but he is a really low level starting pitcher. He has a 5.95 ERA and a 6.55 FIP on the season. Lauer ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in baseball in fastball velocity. He also is in the 11th percentile in expected ERA. He is a soft tosser who gives up a lot of hard contact. Lauer has a terrible .387 wOBA allowed against this DBacks lineup.

Mike Soroka is having a good season. Soroka is a pretty good starting pitcher, but he's up against arguably the best offense in baseball. The Dodgers were silenced last night, and I think they'll get the offense back going here. 

These bullpens aren't very good and both are heavily used of late. There will be some key arms not available in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rays -1.5* The Tampa Bay Rays start Shane McClanahan here. McClanahan is in top form of late. He has allowed 0 runs in five of his last six starts. McClanahan has a long history of being top notch in the first half of the season (2.53 career ERA in the first half compared to 3.98 in the second half of the season). 

Jack Kochanowicz started the season strongly compared to expectations, but he has gotten much worse of late. He has a 6.25 ERA on the road this season. He has an extremely high walk rate, and he has allowed five runs or more in three of this last four starts.

The Rays still are underpriced in general, and I like them in this spot.

Take Tampa Bay -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Parker Messick is an excellent young left handed starter for Cleveland. Boston has been a bottom ten offense in the majors this year. They have hit a bit better of late, but their batting average on balls in play has been very high of late and that should regress.

Sonny Gray has a 3.27 ERA and a 3.66 FIP on the season. Gray has only allowed 5 runs in his last 21 innings pitched. The Cleveland offense is one of the weakest in the majors. The Boston bullpen is top notch.

The weather here matters a bunch as well. The forecast calls for winds blowing in from right field at about 16 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph. Those conditions are extremely favorable for the pitchers especially in this ballpark.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Trey Yesavage here. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Yesavage is in the top 1% of all pitchers in expected ERA and the top 2% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average allowed. He combines the rare ability to give up soft contact with the ability to generate a bunch of swings and misses. He has a 2.25 ERA, but his FIP is even better at 1.91. 

Brandon Young has been winning games because Baltimore has had insane run support for him, but Young isn't that good of a pitcher. He has a 3.47 ERA, but his FIP is all the way up at 4.75. He likely won't get the huge run support now with Baltimore going against an excellent starter.

The lineups are similar in wOBA in the last 30 days. Toronto has a big starting pitcher and bullpen advantage.

Take Toronto. 

AL Central Total of Month- *3 Star Play Over* Fedde will be the bulk pitcher for the White Sox. Fedde is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. He routinely has extremely low swinging strike rates. His fastball is getting crushed on a consistent basis. Fedde's walk rate is worse than the league average. He also allows a bunch of hard contact.

Melton is a quality pitcher, but he doesn't go deep into games very often. The Tigers bullpen can't be trusted.

The White Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. This young lineup is really putting things together and piling up the runs.

The Tigers haven't been hitting very well, but Fedde should give them more opportunities than most pitchers have.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees have been elite against left handed pitching. They are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They are first in the majors in ISO against lefties. 

Noah Cameron has pitched twice against the Yankees in his short career. Cameron has allowed 14 hits and 13 runs in 9 and 2/3 innings pitched in those two starts. I don't see any reason to trust Cameron to pitch well in this one.

Gerrit Cole was excellent in his first start back last time out. Cole has allowed a .167 batting average against this Royals lineup. Cole is backed by a rested bullpen who should do their job well in this one too. 

I'll take the plus money on the run line.

Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star Play DBacks ML* Eduardo Rodriguez has been dialed in nicely of late. He has allowed a total of 4 runs in his last four starts. He hasn't allowed a home run in any of those last four starts. 

The Giants have a weighted on base average of just .298 against left handed pitchers this year and that is with a high batting average on balls in play of .311. San Francisco doesn't have many good hitters against lefties.

Tyler Mahle's velocity is down, and he's not getting many swings and misses.

The DBacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The lineup for Arizona is much more potent than the Giants lineup.

Take Arizona here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sutter Park is a top three hitters park in the majors. Aaron Civale is a pitch to contact type pitcher. Civale is in the bottom 16% of pitchers in expected batting average. His strand rate is high and his profile screams regression toward the mean coming. 

Luis Castillo has been dreadful this year. His average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in baseball. The Athletics lineup has hit him well in the past, and that should continue here. Castillo has a 6.41 ERA on the year. He has been really weak on the road in recent seasons, and this is a really tough test.

The A's have a top 6 or 8 offense in the majors, and the Mariners have been good offensively on the road in recent seasons.

The wind is expected to be blowing out about 14 mph in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs start Imanaga in this one, and there isn't a pitcher in baseball who is more dependent on what the weather forecast is like at his home park. Imanaga has been amazing at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, but he struggles badly with the wind blowing. The winds are expected to be blowing in around 10 mph during this one, and the temperature won't be particularly warm in Chicago either. The weather is helpful to the pitchers here. 

The Chicago Cubs offense has scored a grand total of 7 runs in their last five games. The Cubs have been in a terrible slump. Peter Lambert has been solid all season. He has a 3.57 ERA and a 3.30 FIP. 

The Astros offense ranks bottom five in the majors in the last couple weeks. 

Wrigley Field's weather matters a lot, and I like both starters to have success.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Giants have played in six straight games that have reached at least eight runs. San Francisco's pitching staff has been awful of late, and Adrian Houser has arguably been the worst starting pitcher for them this year.  He gets a turn in the rotation again here.

The Chicago White Sox have been hitting the ball really well in recent weeks. They have seen 8 of their last 10 games reach at least eight runs total. The White Sox offense ranks in the top ten in all major categories in recent weeks. 

Hudson will open here for the White Sox, but Fedde is the bulk pitcher. Fedde is a pitch to contact guy who rates very lowly in the advanced metrics. Houser is in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed.

Both bullpens are below average as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Pirates ML* Patrick Corbin started the year pitching pretty well, but his level has slipped a lot in recent weeks. Corbin is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average allowed this season. He's in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He is in the bottom 9% of all pitchers in whiff percentage. He still gives up hard contact, but he no longer gets the swings and misses he got a few years ago.

Paul Skenes has had two bad starts this year. Skenes has been absolutely dominant in the rest of his starts. Skenes is arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball today. He has an expected ERA in the top 2% of all pitchers in baseball. Skenes has one walk and 45 strikeouts in his last six starts. 

The Pirates are a game above .500 on the road, and this is a massive starting pitching advantage. I think the price is too cheap.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play Athletics ML* The San Diego Padres are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching, and it isn't close. The Padres have a terrible .265 wOBA against left handed pitching this season. Springs is an above average left handed starting pitcher. He has solid numbers this year despite pitching in Sutter Park a bunch. In his road games, Springs has a 3.04 ERA this season. I think he can have success against this San Diego offense.

The Athletics are 16-12 on the road. They are fourth in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Walker Buehler is in the bottom 12% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average allowed. Buehler is at best an average right handed pitcher right now. 

The A's are unquestionably the better offense and they have the better starting pitcher too. The Padres have a great bullpen for sure, but the price here is too good for me to pass up on the underdog.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cam Schlittler and Trey Yesavage are two of the best young pitchers in baseball. Schlittler ranks in the top 6% of all pitchers in walk percentage and in chase percentage. He has a 1.35 ERA and a 1.82 FIP. He has allowed one run or less in seven of ten starts this season.

Yesavage pitched great down the stretch last year, and he has picked up right where he left off. Yesavage has a 1.40 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in his four starts this season. He ranks in the top 10% of all of baseball in whiff percentage and top 1% of all pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed.

The Blue Jays offense is bottom five in the majors in the last 30 days. The Yankees offense is a good one, but they have slumped a bit of late and are middle of the pack in the last two weeks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox have seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with five total runs or fewer. Boston's offense is in a terrible slump, but the pitching staff has been throwing it pretty well.

Ranger Suarez has allowed 0 runs in his last three outings combined. Suarez has great control and induces a lot of soft contact. The Royals offense is a below average offense on the whole.

Kansas City will primarily have a bullpen game here. Their bullpen is pretty fresh so that helps in this spot.

The weather here is a plus for the under. A temperature of around 60 degrees with winds blowing in at about 10 mph from center field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The winds are blowing out at Wrigley Field on Monday night. A temperature around 70 degrees and winds blowing out at 13 mph with gusts up to 20 mph or so will help the hitters.

Brandon Sproat has a 5.75 ERA and a 5.73 FIP on the season. The Cubs have a top three lineup in baseball. This is likely to be a really tough test for Sproat. 

Shota Imanaga has pitched well this year, but he is very dependent on the weather conditions at home. There has been several cases already this year where the wind was blowing in and it helped him immensely. He is a fly ball guy who has struggled with home run issues at home. The Milwaukee lineup has torched him with William Contreras leading the way.

With these conditions and starters, I expect a higher scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes has a 1.98 ERA and a 1.85 expected ERA. He had one bad start at the beginning of the year, and he has been the best pitcher in baseball since then. Skenes has 0 walks and 38 strikeouts in his last five starts. He has allowed just a .081 batting average against the Phillies lineup in his career.

Zack Wheeler is back healthy and dealing. Wheeler has allowed just one home run in his four starts so far this year. Wheeler has a 2.55 ERA and a 2.69 FIP. He has tremendous numbers against this Pirates lineup. In 129 plate appearances, the Pirates have hit .175 against him with a terrible .238 wOBA.

This has the makings of a low scoring great game thanks to two elite starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zack Littell is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. He has thrown 36 and 1/3 innings this year. He has a brutal 6.94 ERA, but his expected ERA is 7.60 and his FIP is 8.25. He has allowed a whopping 14 home runs already this year. He only has 17 strikeouts. 

The Baltimore Orioles lineup has been inconsistent, but they have struggled with strikeouts and Littell is a guy they should be able to get some good at bats against.

The Washington offense has been very good this year. There is some impressive young talent on the Nationals roster. Shane Baz is in the bottom 22% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He is prone to giving up the big inning. 

The Orioles bullpen is mediocre at best and the Nationals are a bottom three bullpen in baseball.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers take on the Mets on Wednesday night. Citi Field has quietly been a park where the weather matters a lot, and the winds here should be a big story. 

The forecast calls for winds of 21 mph at start time with gusts of 30 mph. Those winds are expected to be blowing out toward left center field. The hitters from both teams will be helped significantly by these conditions.

Framber Valdez hasn't been on point this year, and he is rusty. The Mets offense is inconsistent, but they do have some power.

Scott is a good youngster,  but he carried high home run rates allowed through the minors. The Tigers could take advantage of this weather against him.

At this low of a number, I'll go to the high side.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The Rays have the best record in the American League, and they are just half a game off the best record in baseball (Braves). Tampa Bay sends Shane McClanahan to the mound in this one. McClanahan has allowed zero runs in three straight starts. He has a really high upside, and the Blue Jays offense has been inconsistent all year.

Patrick Corbin has decent numbers this year, but the advanced metrics here paint a clear picture of a pitcher due for regression. Corbin is in the bottom 4% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average and bottom 7% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA. His whiff rate is way down, and he is still giving up a lot of hard contact.

The Rays have the better lineup here, and they have a huge starting pitching edge. At this price, I have to take Tampa.

Take the Rays. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Baltimore Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Baltimore has been a big disappointment this season. The Athletics were great on the road late last year, and they are 13-10 on the road so far this season. They are now in first place in the AL West division too.

Luis Severino isn't a good starter, but on the road his numbers have been so much better than at home. He is bad at Sutter Park, but on the road he is a decent pitcher.

Chris Bassitt has nearly as many walks as strikeouts so far this season. He is 37 years old and is clearly past his prime.

The Athletics are 3rd in the majors in wOBA in the last seven days. The Orioles are 19th. The Athletics crush right handed pitching. 

The much better lineup at a good price.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics offense started the season slowly, but they are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They are hitting for power and this group is a patient bunch at the plate. 

The Orioles are 14th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Baltimore is starting to find their power of late as well.

Aaron Civale has a 2.95 ERA with an expected ERA of 4.22 this season. He's giving up much more hard contact this year, but he has been stranding a small army on base. That should regress toward the mean. Civale is in the bottom 12% of all pitchers in the majors in whiff rate and hard hit rate.

Shane Baz is a really inconsistent pitcher. Baz is prone to giving up the big inning. Baz has had poor command this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Minnesota Twins started the season out hot, but they have come crashing back down to earth. Minnesota is 6-12 on the road. The Twins have a bottom three bullpen in the majors. 

Connor Prielipp is a good young lefty, but he hasn't pitched deeper than five innings in any of his three starts. The Twins bullpen is much worse than the Guardians bullpen.

Parker Messick has tremendous stuff, and he has great advanced stats to match his great ERA so far this season. Messick ranks in the top 2% of all pitchers in the majors in pitching run value. He is in the top 11% of all pitchers in average exit velocity. He ranks in the top 6% of all pitchers in chase rate.

There is some rain in the area for this game which would make the bullpens even more important. The Guardians have a clearly above average bullpen with solid depth.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 11-1 in their last 12 games. Shane McClanahan has been finding his form of late. We know he is capable of dominating, and in his last two starts he has 11 innings pitched and no runs allowed. In his career, McClanahan's single best month by a large margin has been the month of May. This is a guy who has a very high upside with his command and his overall stuff. 

Patrick Corbin has seen better than expected results so far this season, but his advanced stats still look poor. Corbin is in the bottom 16 percent of all pitchers in the league in expected ERA and in the bottom 14 percent of all pitchers in the league in expected batting average allowed. 

The Rays pitching staff has been elite of late, and I don't trust Corbin to match their performance in this one. I think this price is too low.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Baltimore Orioles were beaten up by the Yankees in New York last night. They make the long trip to Miami here, and this is another difficult spot for Baltimore.

Sandy Alcantara isn't quite in his vintage form from a few years ago, but he has been pitching pretty well this year. He has electric stuff and has brought his average exit velocity allowed down quite a bit.

Chris Bassitt is 37 years old and appears to be past his prime. He has a 5.46 ERA and a 5.15 FIP. Bassitt isn't missing bats this year.

Baltimore is dead last in the majors in run differential on the road. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees have Cam Schlittler on the mound here. Schlittler is quickly turning into one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has a 1.51 ERA and a 1.54 FIP in his seven starts so far this season. Schlittler has allowed 0 earned runs in 4 of his 7 starts. He's up against a Baltimore lineup that has really struggled with consistency this year. They swing and miss a lot.

Shane Baz has a really rough history against this Yankees lineup. Baz has poor road splits as well.

The Yankees are second in the majors in run differential. The Orioles are 26th in the majors in run differential.

This sets up well for a run line wager.

Take Yankees -1.5. 

*4 Star Play on Guardians ML* Parker Messick is one of my favorite young pitchers. Messick has a 1.73 ERA and a 2.31 FIP this season. Messick has been consistently tremendous this year. While Sutter Park is a home run friendly park, Messick has allowed only 1 home run in 36 and 1/3 innings pitched. Messick is in the top 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. Messick is in the top 5% of all pitchers in chase rate. 

The Athletics are bottom eight in the majors against left handed pitching this year. They are much better against right handed pitching.

Aaron Civale is a subpar starting pitcher. Civale is in the bottom 8% of all pitchers in average exit velocity allowed. Civale is in the bottom 19% of all pitchers in expected batting average allowed.

The Guardians have a clear starting pitching advantage, and they have the deeper bullpen as well. 

I like the price here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* McGreevy has pitched well so far this year for the Cardinals, but there are clear signs of regression. He has a 2.97 ERA and a 6.16 expected ERA. He has an expected batting average in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in baseball. He pitches to contact, and this Dodgers lineup is a stacked lineup full of left handed power hitters. 

Roki Sasaki is in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in expected ERA and the bottom 18% of all pitchers in expected batting average allowed. He is giving up a lot of hard contact, and the Cardinals offense has been good this year led by Jordan Walker's breakout season.

I think this total is set too low given the shaky starters and the strong offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Patrick Corbin has a terrible .425 weighted on base average allowed in 87 plate appearances against this Minnesota Twins offense. The Twins are much better offensively against left handed pitching. Corbin has been a bit better so far this year, but he is in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and batting average allowed. 

Simeon Woods Richardson has an ugly .518 weighted on base average allowed against the Blue Jays lineup in 60 plate appearances. Woods Richardson is in very poor form this year too. He is in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate. The Blue Jays are a bit healthier than they were earlier this year.

Both of these starting pitchers are below average and are capable of giving up quite a few runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Luis Severino has had a terrible time pitching at Sutter Park in Sacramento. Severino has a 6.15 ERA in 93 and 2/3 innings pitched at Sutter Park. He has a very high 1.537 WHIP when pitching at Sutter Park. Severino is walking 6.03 batters per nine innings so far this year. He hasn't been sharp to start the season, and only two of his six starts have been at home.

Michael Wacha appears due for regression. He carries a good ERA, but his expected ERA is in the bottom 37 percent of all pitchers in the majors. He is giving up much harder contact than he did last season.

Wacha and Severino have both been hit pretty hard by the opposing lineup. Both bullpens have been stressed some with extra innings yesterday and not many starters going deep into games before that contest.

The A's lineup is top ten in the majors against right handed pitching. The Royals lineup is 15th in the majors against right handed pitching.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* The Chicago Cubs will go up against Walker Buehler here on Tuesday night. Buehler made one really good start this year and that was at home against the Rockies lineup. Colorado has notoriously been very weak hitting on the road in recent years. Here he is up against a Cubs offense that is top five in the majors.

Buehler is in the bottom 14% of all pitchers in baseball in expected batting average allowed. He doesn't pitch deep into the game either. That's important since both Miller and Morejon have both pitched a lot lately for the Padres bullpen. The Padres bullpen is good, but it is definitely top heavy.

Edward Cabrera is an above average starter and he gives the Cubs a pitching advantage here. Cabrera has a 2.73 ERA and a 3.63 FIP on the season. He has good velocity and chase rates. 

The Padres offense has been inconsistent, while the Cubs have been very good on offense this season.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Athletics start Aaron Civale here. He is a pitch to contact type of guy. Civale has had one start in Sacramento so far this year, and he was shelled by the weak Chicago White Sox offense. The Royals aren't necessarily a great offense, but they come into this one with some momentum, and they are 15th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

While the Athletics have been really good against right handed pitching, they are all the way down at 27th in wOBA against left handed pitching. He has only been average this year, but Bubic has a higher upside than does Civale.

The A's don't have much of a home field advantage in Sacramento. I like the road team here.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are the top two offenses in baseball against left handed pitching, and it isn't very close. 

Imanaga has pitched at home in some very helpful weather conditions this year with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. He's a fly ball pitcher, and he is up against a Dodgers team with great power against lefties. The weather here is calling for winds blowing out about 12 mph at Dodger Stadium, and the power hitters get a boost in these conditions.

Wrobleski is just 22nd percentile in expected batting average and in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in strikeout rate. The Cubs should get traffic on the bases here. 

The bullpens have been worked pretty hard lately as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers start Jacob Misirowski in this one. He has drastic splits in his young career. Misiorowski has a 3.23 ERA at home and a 4.99 ERA on the road. He also has a 2.92 ERA in the first half of the season and a 5.32 ERA in the second half of the season. He is in the 88th percentile of all pitchers in expected batting average allowed so far this season.

The Pirates lineup has an .087 batting average against Misiorowski in a small sample size. Mitch Keller starts for the Pirates, and the Brewers and Milwaukee has a great .376 weighted on base average in 112 plate appearances against Keller.

The Brewers have typically been a good home team, and the Pirates have been dreadful away from home in recent seasons. Skenes shut down the Brewers yesterday, but I like them to get it going enough to win here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes had a really bad opening day start. He has allowed a grand total of three runs in four starts since that opening day dud. Skenes is still an absolute star, and he'll dominate opposing lineups more often than not. Skenes has held this Brewers lineup to a .163 batting average in a small sample size. 

Brandon Woodruff has allowed just a .190 batting average against this Pirates lineup in his career. Woodruff doesn't walk many batters at all, and he has been really consistently strong for Milwaukee.

This has the feel of a low scoring tight game the whole way. 

Pittsburgh carries a high .305 batting average on balls in play and their lineup should regress a bit in the coming weeks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fuentes steps in for Perez here. Fuentes is unlikely to pitch deep into the game, and the bullpen for Atlanta is taxed in a huge way right now.

The Atlanta Braves rank second in the majors in weighted on base average overall. Atlanta is one of the best offenses in the majors thanks in large part to their power and the depth of their lineup. The Washington Nationals are 8th overall in that same statistic, but the Nationals are 2nd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Zack Littell is in the bottom five percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. Littell has allowed 7 home runs in just 19 innings pitched. The current Braves lineup has a .378 wOBA against him. The Nationals bullpen is also one of the worst in the majors.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Patrick Corbin is way past his prime. Corbin has an expected ERA in the bottom 5% of all pitchers this year. Corbin also has a bottom 25% exit velocity allowed despite having a fastball that is much slower than the league average. 

The Angels are a top eight offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Guys like Soler, Adell, and Trout have been excellent against left handed pitching. 

Jack Kochanowicz has been better so far this year, but I still see him as a weak starting pitcher. He has one of the highest walk rates in the majors. He also doesn't induce many swings and misses.

The bullpens here are pretty weak also. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have been a tremendous over team this year. The Nationals young lineup is starting to mature and they have turned in some great performances. Abrams and Wood are crushing the baseball right now. They have some other even younger guys who are hitting the ball well also. The Nationals pitching staff and bullpen are bottom five in the majors. 

Miles Mikolas has a very high walk rate, and his strikeout rate has always been very low. Mikolas is far past his prime. He has a 11.49 ERA on the season thus far.

Robbie Ray has good numbers this year, but he has a very low .180 BABIP allowed this year and that will regress toward the mean in time. He is also past his prime.

The Nationals have seen 17 of their 21 games this year go over this posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Taijuan Walker ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He also ranks in the bottom ten percent in whiff percentage. The Braves have scored 6 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Atlanta's lineup is deep, and they should give Walker a lot of trouble here.

Martin Perez has good numbers this year, but his batting average on  balls in play allowed is a ridiculously low .190. That should regress to the mean. Perez is way past his prime and this Phillies lineup has crushed him in the past. Bohm and Turner have led the charge against him. The team overall has a .356 wOBA against Perez.

I would expect a bunch of baserunners on the base paths in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Guardians ML* Parker Messick is quickly becoming an excellent starting pitcher for the Cleveland Guardians. Messick doesn't allow much hard contact, and he has good command of all of his pitches. Messick has allowed one run in three starts this season. He has a chase rate in the top 10% of all pitchers in the majors.

Shane Baz is extremely inconsistent. He is certainly capable of pitching shut down baseball, but he has struggled with big innings allowed for much of his career.

The Guardians bullpen rested up well yesterday, and their best arms are ready for this one. There is a chance this one gets rain delayed, so having a rested bullpen that is one of the best in baseball is very helpful.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* Luis Gil was in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA last year. He was in the bottom 2% in walk rate. Gil is at best a middle of the road pitcher.

Jack Kochanowicz was in the bottom 3% of the league in expected ERA and expected batting average last year. He was in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in average exit velocity allowed. Kochanowicz has a good ERA in three games this year, but his advanced metrics are still very poor. He walks a bunch of guys and gives up way too much hard contact.

The Yankees offense is going to be very good. They have one of the lowest batting averages on balls in play in the majors. The Yankees are third in ISO against right handed pitching. The Angels have a poor bullpen as well backing up Kochanowicz. 

The Angels offense has been above average on the season thus far.

It is expected to be warm with a little bit of wind blowing out at Yankee Stadium here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Cleveland Guardians are the much better team of these two. I think St. Louis will be pretty far down this season. The Cardinals offense can do some damage at times, but the starting rotation and the bullpen are a mess. The fan base is no longer heavily invested here, and the Cardinals are in for a down period unless something drastic changes. 

Cleveland did use some key bullpen guys today, but they have much more bullpen depth than the average team. The Guardians start Joey Cantillo here. He is a guy who has good command and can induce softer contact. He has taken some nice steps in the past year. 

McGreevy has potential as well, but he is prone to giving up the big inning at times.

The weather here calls for the wind blowing out heavily. I trust the Guardians pitching staff more.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* Gavin Williams is a high quality starting pitcher. Williams has an expected batting average allowed this year that is in the 95th percentile in baseball this season at .152. He has consistently had a very high whiff rate in the last couple years. Williams has a breaking run value in the top 4 percent of all pitchers in baseball. He has excellent stuff.

Liberatore is in the bottom 1 percent of all pitchers in breaking run value. He is in the bottom 12 percent of all pitchers in expected batting average. 

The Cardinals are way down from previous season, and I think they are overvalued in the betting marketplace right now.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins are 20th and 19th in the majors in batting average on balls in play against right handed pitching. They have both been a bit unlucky so far this season offensively.

Taj Bradley has excellent numbers in a small sample so far this year, but his overall body of work shows his inconsistency and blowup potential at any time. He is prone to big innings, and the Blue Jays lineup has a .340 weighted on base average against him. Vlad Jr. is 7/14 with a home run and a double against Bradley. 

Max Scherzer is a shell of his former self. Scherzer has a terrible .435 wOBA against this Twins lineup too. Josh Bell has 3 home runs and 2 doubles on Scherzer in 16 at bats. 

Both lineups have power and I think they can get some runners on and hit a blast in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has seemed pretty good so far this year, but they have had some tremendous luck. Atlanta has allowed just a .226 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is the lowest BABIP allowed in baseball, and the second lowest is all the way up at .241. 

Parker Messick is a very highly rated prospect for Cleveland, and he is showing why right now. Messick looked good late last year, and now he is dealing to start this season. Messick is a strike thrower who has great spin rates and run values. He has great movement on his pitches. The Cleveland bullpen is still one of the best in the majors.

Martin Perez is far past his prime, and the Cleveland lineup has hit him very well in his career. The Braves bullpen is weaker than the Cleveland bullpen.

I'll take the plus money price here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense is averaging only 2.8 runs per game this season. Cincinnati is winning games on the back of their pitching.

Eury Perez has drastic splits (home/away) in his career. Perez has a 2.54 career ERA at home. He has a 5.03 career ERA on the road. Perez induces a lot of swings and misses, and this Reds lineup will strike out a lot this season.

Brady Singer has given the Reds solid innings in his time with the team. The Marlins have a very high batting average on balls in play rate and I think they will regress a bit on offense in the coming weeks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams rank 19th and 25th in the majors in batting average on balls in play. They have been unlucky so far this year. The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball. The Angels have a decent amount of pop, and they have a history of being good offensively at home in recent seasons.

Kikuchi has started the season in poor form. He is a very streaky pitcher. He has walked five batters in just 9 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. Kikuchi has allowed a pretty high .344 weighted on base average against this Braves lineup in his career.

Lopez has a long history against this Angels lineup, and he has been terrible against. In 105 plate appearances against this group, Lopez has allowed a whopping .421 wOBA. Soler has 13 hits in 22 at bats against him. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Washington* Pallante is one of the worst starters in the majors. He also has a low swinging strike rate. Littell gives up a lot of hits, but he doesn't walk hardly anyone. 

The Nationals are a bad team, but they are a home underdog against one of the worst starters in the majors. I have to look toward the plus money price in this one. 

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics are playing their home games at Sutter Park again. This is clearly a very hitter friendly park. It was second in the majors in highest park factor for runs scored last year (behind only Coors Field). 

Cristian Javier is a really inconsistent pitcher. The A's offense hasn't been good this year, but there is a lot of young talent and I expect them to get things going.

Springs is a mediocre starter for the Athletics. The Astros are good against left handed pitching. 

This game has real potential to be very high scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joe Ryan is a clearly above average starter who has been good starting out seasons in his career. He has great breaking stuff and is a high strikeout guy. The Royals have a lot of high strikeout batters in their lineup. Ryan has great career stats vs. this Royals lineup. 

The Twins offense is boom or bust with high strikeout guys, but quite a bit of power.

The weather here should matter with winds flipping around and blowing in pretty hard during this game with some potential rain falling as well. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here.

Take the under. 

(3 Unit Play on Reds ML) The Cincinnati Reds start Brandon Williamson here. Williamson has good stuff and is backed by a bullpen that has some solid depth. The Pirates lineup is one of the weakest in the majors. I think Williamson can navigate his way through this lineup. 

Chandler is a good arm for the Pirates, but the Pirates are likely to struggle to back him with many runs. I don't think the Pirates should be a road favorite against a decent Reds team. 

The Reds aren't being priced as the better team here, and I think they are the better team.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Athletics start Jacob Lopez here. Lopez was one of the most underrated starters in the majors late last season. He does a great job inducing soft contact. 

Bryce Elder has been a subpar starter the last couple seasons. While they haven't really shown it so far, I still think the Athletics lineup is an above average group. I think Lopez is the better starting pitcher of the two here, even if he doesn't have the same name recognition at this point.

This is a game I think is 50/50, and we are getting a pretty nice plus money price.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather is extremely warm for this early in the season in Kansas City. An average temperature of 85 degrees with the wind blowing out here at 18 mph on average during this game. That is very helpful for run production.

Woods Richardson can't pitch deep into games very often, and the Twins bullpen is a mess. They have been used heavily, and they are one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

The Twins do have some power against left handed pitching. I think they can go deep some in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics have a fantastic young lineup. The Athletics have a lot of power and they are excellent against left handed pitching. Look for the A's to have quite a few scoring chances here, and all it takes is one deep shot with guys on base to potentially put up a big number here. 

The Blue Jays lineup is still fantastic too. The Blue Jays should put a lot of pressure on a youngster like Morales. Morales pitched poorly in Spring Training.

Both bullpens have been extremely heavily used in recent games. Some of the key guys won't pitch here.

Two top six or eight offenses here and a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Texas Rangers won't be underdogs very often with Jacob Degrom on the mound. Degrom has been excellent early in the season throughout his career. He also owns an impressive .215 batting average allowed and .269 weighted on base average allowed against the Phillies lineup in his career. 

The Philadelphia Phillies start Aaron Nola here. Nola has a 6.57 ERA in the month of March in his career. He is a good starting pitcher, but his best outings have not come early in the season. He has often struggled with poor control early in the season. 

Texas is an above average team and I'll take the plus money price.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be way down this year. The Cardinals lineup will be one of the worst in the majors. Masyn Winn is their cleanup hitter and they are really lacking in on base percentage type guys at the top of the other as well.

St. Louis starts Liberatore here. While he isn't a bad pitcher, he doesn't have top of the line type stuff either. The Rays do have a couple big bats in the lineup in Caminero and Diaz. 

Drew Rasmussen has been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball the last couple seasons. Rasmussen had a 1.02 WHIP last year and a 2.76 ERA. He gives them the pitching edge in this one.

The Rays are a mediocre team, while the Cardinals could be a bottom three or four team in baseball.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two of the top three offenses in baseball, and Dodger Stadium is a hitter friendly venue on the whole The shadows here will be talked about and it could be an issue for some of the game, but start times at Dodger Stadium near this time have actually trended toward the over.

Max Scherzer isn't even close to the pitcher he once was, and he has a weakness against left handed hitting now. The Dodgers have elite lefties who are going to make things tough on Scherzer in this contest.

Tyler Glasnow is a good starter, but he doesn't usually pitch as deep in the game as most starters. The Blue Jays should work the count and score some runs here. Both Guerrero Jr. and Springer have had a lot of success against Glasnow in their history. 

I don't trust either bullpen all that much, and I think we'll see plenty of both of them.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays had one of the top two or three offenses in baseball this season. Toronto has a bunch of power in the lineup, and they woke up in a big way on Wednesday. George Springer had an excellent season starting things out right for the Jays at the top of the order. He had 3 hits on Wednesday. Vlad Guerrero Jr. went 4 for 4 with a walk on Wednesday. 

Seattle's lineup is better than average, and they have a lot of home run power also. Max Scherzer starts in this one, and Scherzer has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his last six starts. Scherzer hasn't thrown since September 24th, so he is way off his normal schedule. Scherzer was once a dominant starter, but at 41 years old he is far from what he was 5 years ago. 

Luis Castillo has pitched well in recent outings, but he faced a lot of weak lineups during those starts. This is a stacked Toronto lineup.

Hudson is the home plate umpire and he is a hitter friendly umpire. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Mark Wegner has consistently had one of the lowest strikeout/walk ratios in all of baseball. He is one of the most hitter friendly umpires you'll ever find. He is behind home plate for this key game between the Phillies and Dodgers.

Cristopher Sanchez is an excellent starter, but the Dodgers offense has heated up nicely of late. Tyler Glasnow has excellent stuff, but I don't think he goes more than five innings or so in this spot, and that means a lot of the Dodgers bullpen which has been weak all season long.

Dodger Stadium ranked as the fourth most hitter friendly park in baseball this year. The ball carries well here during the daytime and this is a 3:08 local time contest. 

These are two really good offenses with a low total and two worn out bullpens. A really big bonus of an over umpire too.

Take the over.