*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals meet in Kansas City on Friday night. 

Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in six straight games. The Royals have scored 42 runs in that time (7 runs per game). They now go up against a pitcher in bad form in Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker has 5.90 ERA and a 5.66 FIP on the season. He has been bad. 

Brad Keller has a 5.68 ERA. He has a 6.55 xERA and a 4.77 FIP. No matter how you look at it, Keller has been bad this year as well.

Both bullpens are below average so there chances for runs late too.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here. The over is 137-107 in his games behind home plate. 

The weather is a help here too. The wind is blowing out about 10 mph and this stadium has shown strong over trends with the wind blowing out like this. A warm temperature in the low 80's is a positive as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Texas Rangers have been finding ways to lose baseball games. Texas has lost 13 road games in a row. They have lost 7 straight overall.

Colorado isn't a good team. The Rockies always are much better at home than on the road though. Colorado is 17-12 at home on the year. The Rangers are 9-21 on the road. Texas is an ugly 12-40 in their last 52 road games.

With a Rangers team that is this bad, if you are giving me just about anyone against them at this price range on the road it is going to be hard not to look to back them.

Antonio Senzatela has thrown the ball well of late, and his career numbers are actually quite a bit better at Coors Field than on the road. Jordan Lyles had very little success in his time pitching at Coors Field. 

Texas is 27th in the majors in defensive runs saved. Colorado is an impressive second.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The San Francisco Giants continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. The Giants offense has outperformed all expectations. Buster Posey has been fantastic this year. Mike Yastrzemski is back and hitting the ball well. Brandon Crawford has heated up of late as well. 

One thing that has gone overlooked this year is how good the Giants are defensively. San Francisco ranks 2nd in the majors in defensive runs saved. Where are the Angels? They are second worst behind only the Tigers. The Angels have major defensive liabilities. 

Dylan Bundy is a streaky pitcher. He is capable of dominating, but he is also capable of getting crushed. Bundy has allowed 17 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. 

Johnny Cueto is no longer a great pitcher, but Cueto is inducing soft contact and has excellent control. He doesn't allow free passes much at all.

The Giants are 24-6 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 in San Francisco. The Angels are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. 

Hyeon-Jong Yang starts for the Rangers here. He is a unique lefty who can give some hitters trouble if they haven't seen him. The Mariners haven't seen him. Seattle is a bottom three offense in baseball. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 12 games. The Mariners have scored more than 4 runs only once during that time. 

Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners here. He has looked like an improved pitcher this year. His walk rate is better and he is getting hitters to chase at more bad balls. The Texas offense is worse against left handed pitching. 

Mahrley is an under umpire behind the plate and this is still a pitchers park in Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners are a bottom three offense in baseball. In fact, you could argue they are the worst offense in the majors in their current state. Texas is no better than an average offense, and I would say they are slightly worse than the average offense.

Justin Dunn has been a lot better when pitching at home than on the road. Dunn has had some promising starts of late as well. 

Mike Foltynewicz is certainly an up and down pitcher, but he gets to face a team that swings and misses a ton.

Texas has scored 0 runs in 3 of their last 9 games. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. They have only scored more than 4 runs once in that 11 game span.

Tripp Gibson has proven to be a solid under umpire in his time behind the plate. The under is 9-0 in his 9 games behind home plate this year. His strikeout/walk ratio has been much higher than the league average in recent seasons as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians host the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night in Cleveland.

The weather should play a big factor in this game. Winds of 20-25 mph blowing in off Lake Erie make the under a very good look here. There is a chance of rain that could be a factor here as well so I'm keeping this play smaller than I would have if it would have been dry. Still, if the game is played this under holds value.

Ryu has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball over the last few years. He has great control and induces soft contact at a good rate. The Cleveland offense is one of the worst in baseball.

The Indians are going with a bullpen game here. That isn't a bad thing either since the Indians bullpen has been elite this year. 

The Blue Jays bullpen is an underrated group so if there are rain delays and Ryu gets pulled early the bullpen should hold their own as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Muchlinski is a solid under umpire. He has called more strikes in the long run than the average umpire by a solid amount. This is a very early get away day game. These kinds of games have been lower scoring on the average in the long run. 

Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius are out of the lineup for the Phillies. That is a big hit to this Phillies offense. 

The Marlins offense is one of the weakest in the majors. This is still a favorable park for pitchers as well.

Spencer Howard has a ton of upside and this is a real opportunity for him. 

Pablo Lopez has been amazing at home in his career, and he is having his best year of his career this season. Only one of Lopez's last five starts has gone over this very low total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jose Urena has a 4.62 ERA and a 5.12 xERA on the year. His xBA ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate is in the 7th percentile of all pitchers.

Triston McKenzie has a 6.89 ERA and a 5.68 xERA. McKenzie ranks in the bottom 1 percent of all pitchers in baseball in walk rate. How bad has his control been? McKenzie has walked 4 batters or more in all but one start this year. 

Both pitchers come into this game in bad form. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 12-15 mph during this game. Comerica Park has strong over trends with winds blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 or higher and wind out at least 10 mph the over is 49-23-2 in the last 74 at Comerica.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox -1.5* The Chicago White Sox are 23-3 in their last 26 games against left handed pitching. Chicago has the best weighted on base average against left handed pitching in the majors, and it isn't even close. They'll face Kwang Hyun Kim here. Kim has been good this year, but there are some major regression signs in his profile. Kim has an xBA that is in just the 24th percentile of pitchers. He also has a 2.73 ERA and a 4.59 xERA. Kim will be up against some excellent hitters in this one. 

Lance Lynn has been really solid again this year for the White Sox. Lynn has an xERA in the 89th percentile of all pitchers and an xBA in the 87th percentile of all pitchers. It isn't a fluke that Lynn has such great numbers.

While the Cardinals rank 3rd in the majors in wOBA against lefties, they are only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against righties. Lynn is a dominant righty and I think they could struggle here.

Also, the White Sox bullpen is a top five bullpen in the majors. The Cardinals rank dead last in the majors in bullpen xFIP and bullpen SIERA. A big mismatch here.

With the moneyline price so expensive, I'm on the run line here. 

Take the White Sox -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* Justin Dunn's single biggest problem is his walks far too many batters. Dunn is averaging 5.71 walks per nine innings. He ranks in the 9th percentile in the majors when it comes to BB percentage. 

The San Diego Padres draw the third highest percentage of walks of any team in the majors. San Diego has a lot of patient hitters who will make him work here. Dunn also has a career .312 OBP allowed at home and a .343 OBP allowed on the road. 

Yu Darvish starts for San Diego. Darvish has a stellar 1.81 ERA and a very good 2.62 xERA so far this year. He's up against a Seattle lineup that is one of the worst in the majors. Seattle strikes out at the fifth highest rate of any team in the majors. Darvish has a great called plus swinging strike rate of 32.6%. 

The Padres bullpen ranks first in the majors in ERA and they are first in xFIP and SIERA as well. It isn't a fluke. Seattle's bullpen is middle of the road.

This one is a mismatch.

Take San Diego -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have Jorge Lopez on the mound here. Lopez has a 6.35 ERA and a 5.69 FIP. He gives up a ton of home runs. Lopez has allowed: 1.96 home runs per 9 innings in 2019, 1.62 HR per nine last year, and 2.12 HR's per nine this year. His career swinging strike rate is only 9.1%. He doesn't fool enough people and the Nationals do have some power in their lineup now that they have gotten healthier.

Stephen Strasburg will be on a pitch count here. Exactly how many he will throw we don't know, but he hasn't thrown any more than 75 in his rehab starts working up to this game. Strasburg has much better numbers in the second half of the season than the first half in his career, and he struggled badly in his first two starts earlier this year. 

With neither of these pitchers expected to pitch deep into the game, the middle relief should show up here. Both of these teams are middle of the road or worse when it comes to their bullpen overall. The weakness for both teams is middle relief where they are lacking depth. 

The game time temperature is a balmy 80 degrees in mid May and the ball should be carrying well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller has had a strike percentage higher than the major league average every single season dating back to 2010. He is as consistent as they come at being a strike caller. That alone can't make a game go under the total, but it is a great bonus. 

Dane Dunning is an underrated pitcher. Dunning is due for some positive regression. He has a 4.34 ERA, but all his advanced metrics suggest he has been better than that. His xERA is 3.74 and his FIP is a stunning 2.63. He has an xFIP of 3.18. Dunning has a solid 10.9% swinging strike rate and he has good control.

The Rangers have been no hit twice this year, and this is clearly one of the weakest lineups in baseball. German is a solid pitcher for the Yankees. New York also has a top three bullpen in all of baseball. 

It's an early get away day game and that means there could be a star or two missing from the lineups here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins start Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been fantastic this year. He has a 1.84 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 2.42 FIP. He is averaging 11.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Rogers has multiple strikeout pitches. He faces a Phillies lineup that is without Gregorius and Realmuto is questionable with an injury as well. 

Zach Eflin faces the Marlins lineup that ranks third from last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Eflin has a career ERA of 3.98 at home compared to 5.12 on the road. Eflin has a 3.86 ERA this year, but his xERA is 3.24 and his FIP is 3.95. Eflin is a positive regression candidate. 

Jeremie Rehak is the home plate umpire here and his strikes called percentage have consistently shown to be one of the highest of any umpire in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have John Gant on the mound here. Gant has a tremendous 1.83 ERA, but his xERA is 5.16 and his advanced metrics all scream that he is a major regression candidate. Gant has been hit hard on a consistent basis, but he has had batted ball luck and he's been able to strand a lot of runners this season.

J.T. Brubaker is turning into a very solid starter. Brubaker has a very low walk rate. He also gets a lot of guys to swing at bad pitches consistently. Brubaker has a good ERA of 2.58 and his xERA is a solid 3.59. 

The Pirates bullpen is a top six or eight bullpen in baseball. The Cardinals bullpen is a bottom six or eight bullpen in baseball. 

I'm getting the better starter and the better bullpen at a nice plus money price.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The Cincinnati Reds start Luis Castillo. Castillo isn't right this year. He is either hurt or his release point is off. Castillo looks nothing like his old self. He has an ugly ERA. Even his FIP and expected ERA are near 5, so it hasn't been all bad luck. Castillo isn't getting people to chase like he has in the past. He has struggled badly in the first couple innings of the game. Castillo's first half numbers in his career are far worse than his second half numbers (his ERA is nearly a full run worse in the first half). 

Anthony DeSclafani faces his old team here. The Reds offense is without Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas is questionable again here. Eugenio Suarez is in a season long slump as well. DeSclafani has had great command this year. He has been a much better pitcher in the first half of the season in his career. 

The Giants have been underrated by the betting markets. The Reds are far from full strength and even at full strength the Reds are likely a .500 type team. 

Take San Francisco at plus money here. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Cincinnati Reds are without Joey Votto right now due to a wrist injury. Votto was having a nice season and he is definitely missed in the middle of the lineup. The Reds also have Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel banged up. Both of those guys were out of the starting lineup on Saturday and are questionable here. Cincinnati's lineup is far weaker now than it was at the start of the season.

Jeff Hoffman returns to Coors Field where he struggled terribly in a large sample size. Hoffman has an awful 7.58 ERA (and a 1.73 WHIP) in 130 and 2/3 innings in his career at Coors Field. 

Antonio Senzatela starts for the Rockies. He has actually been slightly better at Coors Field than on the road in his career. 

The Rockies are 13-11 at home this year. Colorado is 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. Cincinnati. 

The Reds aren't good at all at following a win with another win. The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 following a win. This is an inconsistent team that has struggled on the road. They are shorthanded right now.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians have a team batting average on balls in play of .240 this year. The Seattle Mariners have a team batting average on balls in play of .244. No one else in baseball has a BABIP below .261. Neither of these offenses are great, but they are definitely better than they have looked so far this year. Positive regression is on the way in the long term. 

We have two pitchers with command issues here. Triston McKenzie has walked 4 guys or more in all but one of his starts this year. Justus Sheffield has had significant control problems in his career as well.

Stu Scheurwater is behind home plate and he has a smaller strike zone than the average MLB umpire. That could be a key here with these two starters.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play on Angels ML* The LA Angels start Dylan Bundy here. Bundy has fantastic raw stuff and he has the ability to dominate a game. He can also struggle at times because he gives up quite a few home runs. 

Martin Perez starts for the Red Sox. He is a subpar pitcher who relies on inducing weak contact to cover up the fact that he doesn't have good control and he can't miss bats. 

The Angels have Anthony Rendon back in the lineup and that should be big for this offense. A first four in the lineup of: Fletcher, Ohtani, Trout, and Rendon is about as good as they come.

Boston is a solid team, but they carry a high batting average on balls in play and look like a team that is due for some regression to the mean in the long run.

Take the Angels. 

*4 Star Play on Cubs ML* This isn't a play on the Cubs as much as it is a fade of the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is now a miserable 33-78 in their last 111 home games. They are 21-64 in their last 85 home games vs. a right handed starter. 

Detroit is arguably the worst team in baseball. Jose Urena is a guy who lets a lot of guys on base with his poor control. The Cubs offense has been much better of late, and Kris Bryant returned last night. 

Trevor Williams and Jose Urena is close to a wash.

The Cubs offense is far better than the Tigers offense.

The Cubs bullpen is a middle of the road bullpen, while Detroit's bullpen looks like the worst in the majors so far this season. 

Take Chicago. 

*4 Star Play Over* Steven Matz has been a wildly inconsistent pitcher through his career. He has allowed far too many home runs on a consistent basis though. That isn't a good fit for TD Ballpark in Dunedin, where the Blue Jays are playing their home games right now. Matz has only pitched at home twice this year and one of those starts (against Washington) was one where he allowed 8 hits and 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Phillies have plenty of power, and I think they'll get to Matz here.

Vince Velasquez has even more trouble with hard hit fly balls than Matz. Velasquez has a terrible 2.28 homers allowed per nine innings rate so far this year. The Blue Jays have scored at a very high rate at home so far this year.

Both starting pitchers have blowup potential here and these are two quality offenses. 

This is the second best ballpark for hitters according to Park Factors so far this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Usually I begin by talking about the starting pitchers, but in this one I think the bullpens deserve the first spot. The Yankees have what many believe is the best bullpen in baseball. They have shutdown relievers who have elite swing and miss stuff. They rank first in the majors in bullpen xFIP and SIERA on the year. Tampa Bay has a very deep bullpen. That allows them to use a guy like Rich Hill and not take him deep into the game because they have multiple good options to bring in right after him.

The Yankees offense hasn't really gotten going all that much this year, and this is a pitcher friendly park. Tampa Bay has historically been better offensively on the road. 

Jameson Taillon has great control and his xERA is only 2.97 compared to his ERA of 5.02. He has had some very tough luck so far this year. 

Rich Hill has a 5.17 ERA and a xERA of only 3.57. His curveball is still excellent and he has above average control.

The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 road games. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 vs. an AL East opponent. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox have been the most consistent team in the majors when it comes to crushing left handed pitching in the last two years. They rank second in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year. The Minnesota Twins rank a solid 11th.

J.A. Happ is 38 years old. He has had a very nice season, but he is due for regression to the mean. Happ has a 1.91 ERA and a 4.22 xERA. He also has a 3.84 FIP and a 5.39 xFIP. He has allowed a ridiculously low .179 batting average on balls in play. That can't continue in the long run. The White Sox should get a lot of good swings here. The White Sox lineup has a .347 wOBA against him. 

Dallas Keuchel has a 3.79 ERA and a 5.29 xERA. Keuchel is still a quality pitcher, but he is no longer dominant. The Twins have a nice .324 wOBA against him. 

This is a low total for two offenses who hit lefties very well. These pitchers aren't good enough to have this low of a total against strong offenses. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros lineup is one of the deeper lineups in baseball. All of their top six guys in the order are elite. Jason Castro has slumped early this year, but he is a solid long term hitter in the nine spot. There are a lot of professional hitters in this lineup. They make pitchers work. 

Shohei Ohtani has been good on the mound, but he walks far too many batters. Ohtani is walking 9.16 batters per nine innings so far this year. He struggled mightily with command last year in his two starts as well. The Astros are likely to have key guys come up with some runners in scoring position here.

Lance McCullers Jr. is an inconsistent pitcher. He is capable of shutting teams out. He is also capable of getting hit hard. The Angels lineup has a stellar .367 career weighted on base average against him. 

Both of these pitchers struggle with control, and Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He has one of the smallest strike zones of any umpire in baseball. He is a clear over umpire.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Texas ML* Dane Dunning is one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He hasn't gotten much run support this year, but his statistics are very impressive if you take a deep look. Dunning has a 3.81 ERA and a 3.50 xERA. His FIP is an impressive 2.23. He has excellent control and has multiple plus pitches. 

Justus Sheffield's control is a problem. He is capable of being very good, but his lack of control makes him less consistent than Dunning. Seattle's bullpen is also a little worse than the Texas bullpen.

The home plate umpire here is Phil Cuzzi, and home teams have done better in his games behind the plate than any other umpire in baseball in the last five years. 

I'll lay the short price.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays start Tyler Glasnow here. Glasnow's advanced metrics actually look better now than they did a year ago. His spin rates are even better than he had in his amazing 2019 season. Glasnow also has a whiff rate in the 94th percentile (Baseball Savant) compared to 71 percent in 2019 and 83 percent last year. 

Frankie Montas is a more inconsistent pitcher, but the Rays offense isn't particularly strong either. Montas has held Tampa Bay to a .278 wOBA in limited action against them. 

Glasnow has held Oakland to a .240 wOBA in his limited action against them.

It's important to note that Doug Eddings will be the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage in baseball in the last five years. For two pitchers who have very high strikeout rates, but can sometimes struggle with walks, Eddings should help a lot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers offense has looked a little better the last couple games (though they did only have 3 until extra innings on Wednesday), but this is arguably the worst offense in baseball. Detroit has scored 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games. 

Nate Eovaldi is the Red Sox ace, and with Boston coming off a tough loss last night I expect Eovaldi to pitch well here against this overmatched Detroit lineup. Eovaldi has multiple plus pitches with solid command of each. The Tigers have a hard time stringing together hits.

Boston's offense continues to carry a high BABIP which suggests regression to the mean is likely in the long run. Spencer Turnbull does a good job keeping the ball down and he has been consistently solid the last few seasons for Detroit. 

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff continues to be one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Woodruff has consistently been absolutely blowing away lineup after lineup. It hasn't been an easy slate of offenses he has faced, but he has made it look easy.

Zack Wheeler is clearly an above average starter. He's against a Brewers lineup that is badly shorthanded right now. The Phillies offense will likely be without Bryce Harper again here as well. 

The wind here calls for 10 mph in from center field. This is a get away day game where both teams are likely to sit out a player or two from their recent normal rosters.

The under is 8-0 in the Brewers last 8 as a road favorite. The under is 5-0 in Woodruff's last 5 as a road favorite.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland* The Oakland A's are a ridiculous 98-42 in their last 140 as a home favorite. They are also 47-16 in their last 63 vs. a left handed starter. Oakland's lineup is built to hit left handed pitching very well.

Robbie Ray still has control issues, and he allows a lot of home runs. Oakland ranks third in the majors in ISO against left handed pitching, so they certainly have a lot of power. 

Chris Bassitt isn't a spectacular pitcher, but he's clearly above average and he has been very consistent. The Blue Jays are a banged up team, and they have been swinging at far too many bad pitches of late. 

Oakland is laying a very short price here considering their great home record in recent years. Ray isn't a trustworthy starter (though he does have upside potential). The A's are the play for me.

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Baltimore ML* John Means has been money in the bank early in the season throughout his career. Means is a crafty left hander who is really a tough guy to hit until you get a lot of looks at him. This Seattle team hasn't had many looks at him (Combined 33 at bats against him). 

Means has a career 2.90 ERA in the first half of the season. His second half ERA is 4.47. Means hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a game all year this year. He has only allowed more than 1 run twice in his six starts. 

Kikuchi is a wildly inconsistent starter for Seattle. He is certainly capable of throwing a shutout, but he also allowed 5 runs in two of his last three starts. His career ERA at home is 5.57. 

Baltimore is better against left handed pitching, and the Orioles are plus money here with a very solid starter on the mound.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play Under* To say that this Detroit offense is bad is an understatement. The Tigers have been shut out in 3 of their last 4 games. Detroit has scored 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. This a terrible lineup from top to bottom.

Nick Pivetta has been very solid this year. Pivetta still walks too many guys, but Detroit is 28th in the majors in walk rate. Pivetta does have good stuff to rack up strikeouts, and Detroit is first in the majors in strikeouts this year. 

Michael Fulmer has been serviceable this season. He's done a good job limiting the big innings. The Red Sox offense is due for some regression over time. Their batting average on balls in play is the second highest in the majors.

Fenway Park plays as an under venue with wind blowing in and cool temperatures. The temperature will be in the upper 40's with wind blowing in at 5 or 6 mph here. The under is 31-19 in the last 50 at Fenway with any wind blowing in and a temperature of 50 or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Texas Rangers ML* The Minnesota Twins are a team I believe will play better in the long run, but I think they are overpriced here. Something is wrong with Kenta Maeda. Maeda has some terrible numbers on the year overall, and his last two outings have been his worst.

Maeda's Baseball Savant numbers from 2020 compared to 2021 thus far (100th percentile being the best and 0% the worst)

Average Exit Velocity allowed- 2020- 93% 2021- 22%

Hard Hit Percentage- 2020- 98th percentile 2021- 20th percentile

xERA- 2020- 93% (excellent) 2021- 22nd percentile (terrible)

K Percentage- 2020- 88th percentile 2021- 16th percentile

Texas isn't a good lineup, but they have been scrapping and clawing and staying in games. They are 13-16 overall and 6-7 on the road. 

Minnesota is 10-16 and 5-8 at home. 

Dane Dunning is a highly touted youngster who has impressive numbers on the whole. Dunning has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.31 xERA. His FIP is a tremendous 2.21. 

The Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. 

I understand the Twins being favored here, but this price is far too big for me to pass up.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chi Chi Gonzalez and Merill Kelly both have major blowup potential. These are two guys who let a lot of runners on base on a consistent basis. Gonzalez has been fortunate this year with his ERA. According to Baseball Savant, Gonzalez has an xERA that ranks in the 16th percentile. His K percentage is in the 7th percentile. This is a guy who is capable of getting hit around in a big way at any point.

Merrill Kelly's xERA is 10th percentile and his K percentage is only 9th percentile. Kelly has been knocked around by this Rockies lineup in the past. 

These are two weak bullpens who have been overworked in the last few games. Now, they have starters going who are unlikely to work deep into the game. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jose Berrios has been dealing of late. Berrios has a 3.04 ERA on the year and a stellar 2.21 FIP. Berrios has always been much better when pitching at home. His career wOBA allowed at home is just .286. 

Brad Keller has pitched poorly much of this year, but it will help him to have one of the best under umpires in the majors behind home plate here. 

Phil Cuzzi has a 55.6% under rate in his games behind home plate in his career (459 games). Cuzzi has a very high K/BB ratio. 

The wind here should be factor. Winds of 12-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast to be blowing in from center and left field during this game.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have now played 13 games at home this year. Only two of those games have gone under this total. 

Luis Castillo hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Every metric you look at he simply hasn't been the same as in recent years. There is something wrong with Castillo. I don't know if it is an injury or a bad release point or what, but the differences are drastic. 

Here is a look at a few select stats from Castillo in the last 3 years according to Baseball Savant. On these they are ranked by percentile with 100 percent being the best and 0 the worst.

K Rate- 2019- 81% 2020- 83% 2021- 13%

Average Exit Velocity- 2019- 83% 2020- 87% 2021- 35%

xERA- 2019- 85% 2020- 88% 2021- 33%

The Cubs have been very unfortunate in batted ball luck and their offense should improve with time this season.

Zach Davies has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. Davies has more walks than strikeouts in his first five starts. Davies has gone 4 innings or less in four of his five starts (the last 4). He has a 9.47 ERA and a xERA of 6.20. This Reds offense has been great at home.

Both bullpens are weak and they were used a lot last night. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Target Field is a place where you want to know the weather report. When the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph during the game the over is 74-49 in the last 123 contests. That will be the case for this game. 

Tom Hallion is the umpire behind the plate here, and he has called a far lower percentage of pitches a strike than most umpires so he helps the over here.

Danny Duffy has been good so far this year, but he is clearly due for regression. This is a guy who is past the peak of his career and he has a 0.39 ERA and a xERA of 3.98 this year.

Minnesota's lineup is getting healthier and this team is clearly going to be better offensively than they have been on the season as a whole thus far.

Shoemaker has been a good pitcher late in the season in his career, but in the early going he often struggles. He does have some trouble with the long ball and the wind blowing out here is an issue for him.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have played 12 games at home this year. They have only had two of those games finish under this posted total. 

The weather in this game calls for winds of 13 or 14 mph blowing out during this game. That certainly is a help. 

The Chicago Cubs got Bryant and Baez back in the lineup yesterday, and they put up a big number against Atlanta. Chicago is last in the majors in batting average on balls in play, which means they are clearly due for positive regression as an offense. 

Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't great either. The Cubs do have quite a few guys who are noted for being good against left handed pitching.

Jake Arrieta is expected to start for the Cubs, and he is a clear negative regression candidate. Arrieta has a 2.57 ERA and a xERA of 4.08. His strand rate of runners is too high now, and he isn't generating many swings and misses. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Game of the Week* The Colorado Rockies are now 1-7 away from home on the season. That one win was an extra innings win over the Giants last night. Colorado actually led at one point in that game despite having only one hit vs. six hits for the Giants. 

Colorado did show power in the late innings, but the Rockies were the worst road offense in baseball with Arenado last year and they are even worse this season. Colorado is going to have a lot of games where their offense struggles badly on the road.

German Marquez is a pretty good pitcher, but his numbers against the Giants aren't good. San Francisco's lineup has an impressive .402 weighted on base average against him. Marquez has an ERA of 4.50 at San Francisco too, so it hasn't just been damage done at Coors Field.

Alex Wood is in great form to start the season. Wood has been a streaky pitcher his whole career. He now faces the worst road offense in baseball.

I think the Giants bounce back and win at home here against the lowly Rockies.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros started red hot and then fell apart. They have since started putting things back together again. I still think this is a team that will be very successful on the season overall. Remember, they had a lot of injury and COVID 19 disruptions during their really poor stretch.

Zack Greinke starts here and he has been as solid as ever so far this year. Greinke's advanced metrics look excellent. He has been doing a great job with his command using multiple plus pitches. 

Justin Dunn starts for the Mariners and his walk rate is a major problem. Dunn's control is really poor and the Astros have some high quality hitters in this lineup. I would expect a lot of Astros on the bases here. Dunn has been especially bad in his career in the first half of the season and on the road. 

Greinke has allowed this Mariners lineup to have only a .246 weighted on base average. In 87 at bats, they have only 4 extra base hits (all doubles) against him.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dane Dunning is a good young pitcher. Dunning had a 3.97 ERA and 3.67 xERA last year for the White Sox. He has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.31 xERA this year (a 2.46 FIP). Dunning has a career swinging strike rate of a solid 10.7%. 

Alex Cobb isn't a great pitcher by any means at this stage of his career, but he isn't bad. His advanced metrics show he has been unlucky this season so far. Cobb has a 6.28 ERA and a 3.81 xERA and a 2.53 FIP. 

Dunning is up against a good Angels lineup, but he'll be helped by this ballpark being a really good pitchers park. This stadium is now one of the five best pitcher parks in the majors. It has really suppressed runs last year and so far this season.

Cobb is up against a weak Texas lineup. The Rangers often struggle to string together hits because they just don't have any lineup depth.

Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire and he is behind the dish here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are one of the worst teams in the majors. They haven't won on the road so far this year. They are 0-7 on the road. Six of those seven losses have been by two runs or more. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez has the terrible combination of no swing and miss stuff and some terrible control. He is constantly working with a lot of guys on base. The Giants offense has been better than expected thanks in part to a great start to the season from Buster Posey this year. 

Aaron Sanchez has a stellar 1.83 ERA and a very good xERA of 3.18 on the season. Sanchez has been pitching from ahead in the count much more. The Rockies lineup is very weak and on the road this team is going to have major trouble scoring this year.

Take San Francisco -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals is a mess without Juan Soto. Soto is out for this game. Trea Turner was injured last game as well and he is questionable. If he's out the Nationals are arguably out their top two offensive players. 

Toronto is going with a bullpen game here. The Blue Jays have a deep bullpen. They rank in the top six or eight in the majors in advanced metrics across the board. 

Washington has been shut out in two of their last three games. They have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. 

Max Scherzer starts for the Nationals here. He has been very solid in the early going this season. Scherzer still has elite stuff and the Blue Jays are a team that strikes out quite a bit because they go after a lot of bad pitches. Scherzer should be able to strike out a lot of hitters here.

The under has hit at a little better than 55% in interleague games with a total of 8.5 or higher in the past ten years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* Brandon Woodruff is a top 10 or 12 starting pitcher in the majors. Woodruff has a 1.96 ERA and a 2.03 xERA on the season thus far. His fastball velocity is up from last year, and Woodruff has great control. 

How has Woodruff done against this Cubs lineup? The Cubs lineup has an ugly .147 batting average and a .210 weighted on base average against him. That is in a pretty decent sample size of 125 plate appearances. 

Jake Arrieta has pitched pretty well so far this season, but I don't trust him. Arrieta is 35 years old and is clearly not the pitcher he was a few years ago. Arrieta has a 2.86 ERA this year, but his xERA is a much higher 5.21. 

The Brewers have Wong back in the lineup and though Milwaukee is not great offensively, the Cubs offense isn't very good either. Milwaukee has a big starting pitching edge, and the Brewers have the two best relief pitchers of the two teams as well.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Over* Brady Singer and Matt Boyd both pitched great on Saturday and the final was just 2-1 when these teams met. I think this one will be higher scoring. 

The winds have switched around in a big way for this contest. Comerica Park is one where the weather plays a large role. With winds blowing out, this has been a really good over ballpark. The wind is expected to average about 13 mph out toward left and center field during this game. 

Danny Duffy has a 0.50 ERA this year, but his xERA is 4.33 and his xFIP is 4.04. Duffy has given up a bunch of home runs in recent seasons, and the ball should be flying pretty well here. The Tigers lineup has a .316 batting average and a .380 OBP against him.

Michael Fulmer has looked better this year, but I still don't see him as better than a mediocre pitcher. The Tigers bullpen might be the worst in the majors. The Kansas City lineup is certainly improved, and they should have plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Kansas City Royals have absolutely crushed Matt Boyd in his career. This Royals lineup .360 batting average and a .427 weighted on base average against Boyd. Whit Merrifield is a whopping 25 for 48 against Boyd. Hunter Dozier is 10 for 21. 

Brady Singer is a guy I believe has a pretty high upside. Singer threw the ball really well in his last start. He was the Royals first round draft pick in 2018, and he has very good command of all of his pitches. Singer has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.10 FIP so far this year. 

The Tigers have what is absolutely one of the worst teams in baseball. Kansas City is clearly improved this year. Matt Boyd gets respect from the oddsmakers, but he has struggled mightily against this Royals team in the past. Kansas City has the better bullpen as well.

Detroit is an awful 29-73 in their last 102 home games.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Over* Keeping an eye on batting average on balls in play is important at this stage of the season. This can be a really good measure of which offenses are getting fortunate or unfortunate. 

Which two teams rank as the most unfortunate in batting average on balls in play so far this year? The Yankees and the Indians. Here these two teams are matched up against each other. 

We have two lefties on the mound here. Jordan Montgomery has a career 5.03 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average allowed on the road is an ugly .334. 

Logan Allen has questionable control and that is something that makes me want to bet lower overs with. Allen works himself into too many jams. 

These two have good bullpens, but the starters are subpar. The offenses have been unlucky so far this year. This total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona DBacks ML* The Cincinnati Reds have started the season pretty well, but there are signs of regression for this team. They have the 4th highest batting average on balls in play in the majors. They have a ridiculously high .401 BABIP with men in scoring position. The offense isn't as good as they have looked so far this year. 

The Reds will be without Nick Castellanos as he serves a suspension here. He's a key piece to this lineup.

Merrill Kelly isn't a good pitcher, and it is possible the Reds knock him around. Still, this is a price that I simply can't get to. I think this is a wager that wins 44 or 45% of the time and we are getting a big plus money price.

Tyler Mahle has been much better away from home than at Great American Ballpark in the past. The Reds used their top three relievers late in last night's game that was suspended and that might have them a bit limited here.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have taken the first two games of this series. The public is going to be all over San Diego to avoid the sweep here. San Diego deserves to be the favorite here, but this line is out of control. 

Houser is a decent starter for the Brewers and this Padres lineup is expected to be missing a starter or two on Wednesday as the manager rests some guys during a period where they are getting no days off. 

Lamet starts for the Padres and this is his first start of the season. He struggled in limited action in Spring Training and is recovering from an injury. Lamet has a really high upside, but the books are giving him a ton of respect in this tricky first spot back. He'll be on a pitch count here too.

The Brewers will have their top two bullpen arms ready here since they saved them in a blowout last night. Expect to see Williams and Hader in a tight game. 

I have to grab this big price.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins offense isn't the same without Kepler, Garlick, and Simmons in the lineup. They are on the COVID 19 list right now. Minnesota has scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 7 seven games. In the other two games in that span they scored 3 and 4 runs. This lineup is struggling badly right now.

Frankie Montas has allowed only a .309 weighted on base average at home in his career compared to .344 on the road. Montas has a 3.92 ERA in the first half of the season in his career compared to a 5.29 ERA in the second half. 

Kenta Maeda is a consistent pitcher, and he has been good when his teams are struggling in the past. Maeda has a 3.40 ERA in the 1st half of the second and a 4.29 ERA in the 2nd half. Maeda has been very good so far this year. His command is excellent.

These two played a doubleheader yesterday and I think some starters will get a day off here on get away day. 

The under is 6-0 in Maeda's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 following a loss by his team in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in Montas' last 4 vs. a team from the AL Central.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Hyun Jin Ryu in this one. He has been an underrated starting pitcher for several years in a row. Ryu is very solid. He has excellent control and he does a great job limiting hard contact even on pitches inside the strike zone. 

The Boston Red Sox are first in the majors in batting average on balls in play this year. They are at .333 which is unsustainable on BABIP. They have clearly had some good fortune. Boston is a good offense, but they aren't this good. Their recent hot stretch has this price out of whack in my opinion.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher, but he has been much better in the second half of the season in his career, and he has been far less consistent than Ryu. 

This is a nice buy price on the Blue Jays.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Harvey looked terrible in 2019 and 2020. He's looked slightly better in 2021 in the early going, but he still has a terrible 6.9% swinging strike rate. Harvey has gotten a lot of swings out of the zone in the early going, but I think that will come back to earth going forward. Harvey isn't a good pitcher at this stage of his career.

Nick Neidert might be good in the future, but he hasn't been good so far. He has serious control problems. He also has a whiff rate in the 7th percentage of pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. His xERA is 8.62 this season. Neidert can't be trusted either.

These two offenses have been inconsistent, but this is a low total for these two pitchers. Remember, both of these bullpens behind the starters are weak as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox travel to Cleveland for a big divisional game on Tuesday evening. 

Carlos Rodon pitched a no hitter the last time out against the Indians. I'm certainly not expecting him to be as dominant here, but I think he will pitch well again. Rodon didn't throw a ridiculous amount of pitches in his no hitter (114). Many of the pitchers who have struggled in their next start threw 125 pitches or more in that no hitter. Additionally, Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball (bottom 5). They have struggled with left handed pitching for several years in a row. Rodon has better road numbers in his career vs. at home. 

Zach Plesac was blasted last time out by the White Sox, but I expect better from him here. Plesac has allowed only a .272 OBP at home in his career. Plesac gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't a terrible thing given the weather conditions for this game.

The temperature is expected to drop into the upper 30's during this game. The winds are expected to be blowing in from center field at 10-15 mph. The wind does matter quite a bit in Cleveland.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres start Joe Musgrove here. Musgrove has thrown 19 innings and allowed only 7 hits and one run so far this year. He has 2 walks and 24 strikeouts. Musgrove has been better in March/April than any other month of the season in his career, and it isn't even close. 

The Milwaukee lineup isn't great to begin with, but with Christian Yelich injured they are even weaker. The Padres have the best bullpen in the National League to back up Musgrove as well. It should be tough for Milwaukee's offense in this one.

The Padres lineup isn't totally healthy either. They are up against a top 10 pitcher in the big leagues here in Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff has elite strikeout stuff and has very solid control as well. San Diego has scored 3 runs or less in half of their games so far this season.

Two good bullpens and two excellent starters.

The under is 9-0 in Woodruff's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in San Diego's last 6 as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under*  The Cleveland Indians have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Cleveland does still have a very good pitching staff. In fact, 11 of Cleveland’s first 15 games have stayed under this low total. 

Cincinnati has scored a bunch of runs this year. However, the Reds have unsustainable numbers when it comes to batting average on balls in play, and offensive production with runners in scoring position. The Reds will face one of the top three pitchers in all of baseball here. Shane Bieber is a strikeout machine, and he still has amazing control. Mike Moustakas has missed the last two games and is considered doubtful for this game due to an illness. 

Wade Miley will pitch for the Reds. In 2021, Miley has allowed only 4 hits in 11 innings pitched and has yet to allow a run this season. The Indians have struggled against left handed pitching for several years and now they are without Francisco Lindor. 

Ben May is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently called more strikes than the league average.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The St. Louis Cardinals start Carlos Martinez here and he has been terrible both last year and in his first two starts of this season. Martinez had a swinging strike rate of just 8.0% last year and only 9.4% so far this year. He had a 9.90 ERA last year and an xERA of 5.97. He has an ERA of 6.30 so far this year with an ugly xERA of 8.97. He hasn't faced great lineups in his first two starts of the year either.

The Phillies have been slumping lately, but Philadelphia clearly has a good lineup. They have a strong middle of the order and the bottom of the order is much stronger than it was a couple years ago as well.

Zach Eflin has been very solid so far this year. Eflin also has drastic splits in his career. He is much better early in the year. Eflin has a stellar 2.96 ERA and .265 OBP allowed in March/April in his career. He has also been much better when pitching at home. He has had an ERA and an xERA under 4 both last year and so far this season. Eflin has a solid 11.2% Swinging strike rate.

Take the Phillies here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have a top five offense in the majors. They started the year slowly, but they have been rounding into form of late. Atlanta has a very low .241 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is 27th in the majors and there is positive regression coming for Atlanta in the batted balls area.

Miami ranks 19th in batting average on balls in play. The Marlins don't have a great offense by any means, but it is good enough. They looked great on Tuesday and I think they'll have some chances in this one too.

Atlanta's bullpen is way down from where it was a year ago. They lost their top two relievers from last year and that is going to hurt quite a bit. It will force them to win more high scoring games.

Neidert starts for the Marlins and his minor league numbers are very mediocre. He has control problems and I don't trust guys who enter the big leagues with control problems, especially against really good lineups.

Alfonso Marquez is the umpire here. The over is a whopping 36-13 in his last 49 games behind the plate. It isn't just a fluke either, his strikes called percentage is the lowest in the majors during that time.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense may be better this year, but they aren't nearly as improved as they have looked so far this year. The Reds have a ridiculous .449 OBP with men in scoring position so far this year. The team in third in OBP with men in scoring position is at .388 so far this year. Regression is coming for the Reds. They are also in a pitcher friendly park here. 

Luis Castillo had a bad start in game one of the season, but he bounced back with a great start in game two. He is still a very good pitcher, and I expect a nice season from him. 

Kevin Gausman has really reinvented himself with the Giants. Gausman has always had a great splitter, but his secondary pitches have been much better of late. His swinging strike rate is excellent and this Reds team has several guys who are going to strike out a lot.

There were only 7 hits in their game last night. This one should be another low scoring contest.

The under is 8-0 in the Giants last 8 games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane Bieber is a top five pitcher in the majors. Lucas Giolito is a top six or seven pitcher in the majors. These are two guys with multiple elite pitches and excellent command.

The Indians have a bottom five offense in baseball. While the White Sox do have a good offense, it isn't as good now with Jimenez out of the lineup. Both of these pitchers are great at missing bats, and the ball isn't flying as well in Chicago now with temperatures in the upper 40's during this game. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this game. Miller has been one of the two or three best under umpires in the majors in his career. He has consistently rung up batters at a much higher rate than average. If Bieber and Giolito are consistently getting the edges called more than normal here, we could see a very high strikeout total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs offense has been terrible this year. They won't be this bad all year, but they have some awful numbers against Brandon Woodruff and I think it will be hard for them to turn it around here. 

Kyle Hendricks has been a steady strong performer for the Cubs for many years and I expect the same from him again this year. Hendricks doesn't give up many free passes and he limits hard contact.

While sometimes too much can be made of batter vs. pitcher numbers, I do pay attention when there is a large sample size. Both of these pitchers have shut down the opposition. 

Hendricks has allowed a .192 batting average and a .228 weighted on base average against this Brewers lineup in 172 at bats. Woodruff has allowed a .158 batting average and a .240 wOBA against this Cubs lineup in 95 at bats. 

Mike Estabrook is the home plate umpire here and he is a top ten under umpire in the majors.

The under is 45-17-1 in the last 63 meetings between the Cubs and the Brewers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies start German Marquez here. Marquez has really struggled at Coors Field in the past few seasons, but he has been great away from home. Marquez has a stellar 0.99 WHIP and a 3.42 ERA on the road since the start of the 2019 season. In 3 starts at Oracle Park in San Francisco (20 innings pitched) he has a 1.35 ERA. Marquez has fantastic control, and he should pitch well here.

Anthony DeSclafani starts here for the Giants. The Rockies offense is far weaker than it has been in recent season. Colorado perennially finishes in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They might finish in the bottom three this year. This is a weak offense. DeSclafani looked good in his first start and pitching in Oracle Park should help him.

The under is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 as an underdog. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* If you are looking for an over in Major League Baseball, you won't find a better umpire to have behind the home plate than Alfonso Marquez. Marquez is behind the dish for this game. 

The over went 25-8 in Marquez's games behind the plate in 2019. The over was 9-5 in his games last year. The over is 1-0 in his games this year. It isn't just that the games are going over though. Marquez has the lowest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the league in the last three seasons. 

Ian Anderson and Zach Eflin are both young pitchers with a lot of potential, but they face very good lineups here. I think both the Phillies and Braves are top eight offenses in the majors. The Braves haven't looked like it so far this year, but they will turn things around. 

Both Philly and Atlanta have very deep lineups. The guys at the bottom of the order are very capable of hurting you.

The Phillies bullpen is some better this year, but it is definitely still a relative weakness. The Braves bullpen is worse after they lost Greene and Melancon. 

The Braves offensive struggles out of the gate have this number set too low. Marquez being behind the plate is a nice bonus.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff. He gives up a lot of hard contact. He also puts a lot of baserunners on via the walk. 

The Giants had a very good offense at home last year, and I think they'll be solid again this year. Gonzalez is unlikely to be able to navigate through this lineup without trouble.

The Colorado Rockies have been a terrible offense away from home in recent seasons, and now their roster is much worse. I see no reason to expect this offense to be good away from Coors this year.

The Rockies also lack bullpen depth, and Gonzalez usually doesn't work deep into the game.

Logan Webb is a decent starter who should be able to slow down this Rockies lineup.

Take the Giants -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mets start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has been dominant everywhere, but he has been especially amazing when pitching at home and in day games. How good has he been?

Degrom has an ERA of 1.94 in his last 40 starts at Citi Field. He has a WHIP of 0.889 or lower in each of his last three seasons at home. He has an ERA of 1.63 or lower in day games in all but three of his seasons in the majors. He has an ERA of 2.25 or lower in all but one year in the majors in day games.

He is at Citi Field here with cool conditions against a weak Marlins offense. I would expect a great showing from Degrom.

Trevor Rogers has very good stuff and he is a lefty with potential for the Marlins. The Mets have a lineup that should hit right handers better than lefties this year, as they did a year ago. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics no longer have a dominant bullpen. Oakland starts Cole Irvin here, and I don't think he is a big league level starting pitcher. Irvin was hit hard by Houston in his first start and I think Houston has a lot of success again here. 

Houston scored 8 runs or more in each of the four games in Oakland in their 4-0 sweep. All four of those games went over the total. This Astros lineup is better than they showed last year, and I think they'll be one of the best in baseball this year.

Javier is only a mediocre pitcher for the Astros. Oakland's lineup is at least league average. The Athletics have a brutal .224 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is bound to positively regress toward the mean.

If they do leave the roof open here (probable) the wind is blowing out 11 mph at gametime. That is a nice bonus.

The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the best players in all of baseball. The Padres lineup is still pretty good without him, but there is a significant drop off. He is the real catalyst for this lineup.

Kevin Gausman pitched very well last year for the Giants. Gausman has improved his command and sequencing. While he isn't a top pitcher by any means, he is a solid option.

Blake Snell is capable of dominating at any time. Snell moved from the AL to the NL and being in a pitcher's park he should have some very nice numbers this year. This Giants lineup is weaker than league average. Snell is backed up by an amazing Padres bullpen that has great depth.

I would have thought the under was a decent play with Tatis Jr in the lineup, and without him I think this number is too high. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Phillies are a team I felt was underrated before the season. They are off to a great start. It's a long season, but I think Philadelphia really upgraded their bullpen which was a huge problem last year. They have a top five or six offense in the National League as well. Their starting pitching is good at the top, but it is questionable at the bottom of the rotation. 

Chase Anderson gets a chance here on the mound for Philadelphia. The Mets just played their first game yesterday after the COVID outbreak in Washington canceled their first series. The Mets had some poor at bats in that game. Anderson has historically been a guy who starts fast and struggles later in the season. He has a great changeup and I think he can have some success in this game.

Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, but he was out all of 2020 and I think there is a lot of unknown surrounding how he'll do right off the bat in this season. Stroman has been far better later in the season. The first couple months have been his weakest historically. 

This is a game that I feel should priced at about -105 both ways on a dime line. I'll gladly take the plus money price.

The Mets are 4-12 in their last 16 games in Philadelphia.

Take the Phillies. 

*3 Star Play on Royals -1.5* The Texas Rangers have what I believe is the worst roster in the American League. Jordan Lyles had a 7.02 ERA last year. His FIP was 5.95 so he was very bad all the way around. Lyles doesn't pitch very deep into the game. The Texas bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. 

Lyles is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Kansas City has improved power this year in their lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing out 17 mph during this game.

Brady Singer is a young pitcher I'm pretty high on. Singer is an extreme ground ball pitcher and the Royals have a solid defense. With the winds blowing out on a warm day in Kansas City, I would certainly prefer to side with a good ground ball pitcher.

I think Kansas City is a team with some upside this year, and I think Texas could have an extremely ugly season.

Getting plus money on the run line here is a good price.

Take Kansas City -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians offense is one of the bottom five in the majors. Tarik Skubal has a lot of promise for the Tigers. He has multiple plus pitchers where he'll be able to generate a lot of swings and misses. The Indians are likely to struggle against left handers even more than right handers this year as well.

Aaron Civale is a guy I really like. Civale limits hard contact and has elite control. Civale averaged less than 2 walks per nine innings a year ago. He has raised his velocity in the Spring this year, and I think he has some nice upside. 

Detroit's offense is one of the worst in baseball as well. This is a lineup full of guys who swing and miss a lot. It is tough for them to string together big innings.

The weather is still cool and there is little wind in the forecast for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros offense has been great in the first couple games of the season. They had quite a few guys who underachieved last year, and I do expect a bounce back for this Astros offense. This lineup still has a lot of depth and they are really dangerous.

Cole Irvin pitched well in Spring Training for the Athletics, but I don't like to make too much of those results. Irvin has thrown 45 and 1/3 innings in the majors in the regular season. He has a 6.75 ERA and a terrible 1.54 WHIP. Oakland took a flier on him, and while he was good in the Spring, I certainly don't trust him very much. 

The A's no longer have a dominant bullpen as they have had in past seasons. They don't even have a bullpen advantage over the Astros anymore. Hendriks was a big loss for the A's.

Sean Murphy is banged up for the A's and he may miss another game here.

Lance McCullers can be inconsistent, but he is a much better pitcher than Irvin, and the Astros have the better lineup.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zack Wheeler had a really solid season for the Phillies last year. Wheeler induced a lot of soft contact on the season. He doesn't give up many free passes either. 

Charlie Morton's velocity was up a lot in Spring Training. That's a great sign for a guy who was really good for several years in Tampa Bay. He had a down year last year, but I think he should bounce back this year.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here and he is the best under umpire in the majors. His called strike percentages are consistently the highest in the majors. 

Take the under here on a chilly day in Philly. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros are the team to beat in the American League West in my opinion. Oakland isn't a bad team, but I do think the A's are overvalued by the marketplace right now.

Houston still has a tremendous lineup. In fact, I see a bounce back as likely for many of the Astros hitters in the middle of the order. Bregman certainly got off to a great start in game one. 

Lazardo has high upside for the A's, but he has been wildly inconsistent in his young career. This isn't a guy I'd want to be laying -145 with against a team as good as the Astros.

Oakland has had a dominant bullpen in recent years, but they are only mediocre now. Hendriks is a key loss for them. 

In a game that I feel should be lined right around -110 for the A's, I'll gladly take the Astros at this big of a plus money number.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Angels ML* The White Sox are a team that I believe is a little bit overvalued as we start off the season. Chicago is a good team, but they have to prove they are elite. 

Heaney is a good starter, and the Angels are clearly much better offensively now than they were a couple years ago. Anthony Rendon is great support in the lineup for Mike Trout. David Fletcher is a good leadoff hitter. This might be the best lineup in baseball from #1 through #4 in the order. 

The White Sox are without star hitter Eloy Jimenez. I would argue he has about as much upside as any youngster in baseball. His power in the middle of the lineup will be missed. 

Dallas Keuchel is a good pitcher, but he isn't the dominant pitcher he was a few years ago.

The White Sox have made a habit out of losing on the West Coast in recent years. Chicago is 6-23 in their last 29 games in Los Angeles. They have failed on the left coast in general.

Take the Angels. 

*3 Star Play Under* The word from Spring Training is this year the baseball is a bit more "dead" than it was a year ago. Many are expecting a bit less in the way of scoring. 

Kenta Maeda broke out last year in a big way. Maeda had a 2.70 ERA and a 2.63 xFIP on the season. The Twins pitching coaches helped him with his sequencing a lot. 

Brandon Woodruff might be a top ten starter in the majors at this point. He is at least a top 15 guy. Woodruff has a great swinging strike rate, and he still has a low walk rate. 

The Twins have an above average bullpen. The Brewers have a top four bullpen in baseball. 

I see a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw here. Kershaw has a 4.31 ERA in the postseason in his career, and it isn't a small sample size anymore. Kershaw is still a good pitcher, but he isn't what he once was. He's backed by a Dodgers bullpen that clearly isn't as deep as the Tampa Bay bullpen. 

Tampa Bay was 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Tampa Bay is a much better team against lefties than righties. The Rays have been overlooked most of the season. They have several things going for them. Tampa Bay is amazing on defense (easily the best in the majors). They have the deepest bullpen in baseball. They have who I believe is the best manager in baseball in Kevin Cash.

Tyler Glasnow has elite stuff. As long as he can keep his control and not walk too many guys here, I think he has a decent chance of slowing down the Dodgers.

This is a price play as well. I think this is a 50/50 game, but we are getting a huge plus money price.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Houston Astros have found ways to lose the first two games in this series despite the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays haven't hit the baseball well at all yet. 

Both Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. were tremendous for the Astros. I don't think Jose Urquidy will be that good. Urquidy had a 2.73 ERA this year, but a whopping 5.41 SIERA. All of his advanced metrics scream that he is due for regression. Urquidy isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't particularly good either. He didn't pitch well against Oakland in his first playoff appearance. 

Urquidy doesn't pitch deep into games either, and the Astros have had a multitude of bullpen injuries this year. Houston now has a middle of the road bullpen.

Tampa Bay starts Ryan Yarbrough here. It is a small sample size (49 plate appearances), but he has held the Astros to a .245 OBP. Yarbrough is 6'5 and his high release point can be tough to figure out. The Rays have arguably the deepest bullpen in baseball. They rank third in bullpen ERA this year. This is their big advantage over the Astros in this series.

Houston ranked 22nd in wOBA against lefties this year. The Astros have hit better in the playoffs thus far, but they have the much worse defense and much worse bullpen.

This is a short price here on the better team.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees lineup got healthy at the right time of the year. With everyone ready to go, this is a scary good lineup. New York is averaging 9 runs per game through their first four games in the playoffs. Stanton is absolutely crushing the baseball, and there isn't an easy out in this lineup.

Charlie Morton was a little shaky this season. He certainly has good stuff, but he isn't consistent and he'll have to be consistently tremendous to slow down this Yankees lineup. Morton has allowed the Yankees lineup a .349 weighted on base average in his career. 

The Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka who was really bad in his first playoff outing. Tanaka has allowed a .309 wOBA against this Rays lineup. Tampa Bay's offense is better than most realize, and the Rays should get plenty of scoring chances here.

Mark Carlson is a clear over umpire based on his strikes called percentages in recent years, and he is behind home plate for this one.

The ball has really been flying well in the playoffs, and I'll take the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Trevor Bauer has been one of the top two or three pitchers in baseball this year. If you are going to give me one of the best pitchers in baseball at a nice plus money price, I have to at least consider it.

Max Fried starts for the Braves, and Fried has actually been dealing with an ankle injury. He's off his normal rest time, and he still isn't 100 percent healthy. 

Bauer has a 1.73 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, and a 3.26 xFIP. Fried has a 2.25 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, and a mediocre 4.05 xFIP. Fried is definitely a quality pitcher, but he isn't on Bauer's level.

The Braves have a clear advantage offensively, but it isn't big enough to have them favored by this kind of number against an elite starting pitcher.

Additionally, the Reds come into this game with a lot of momentum. Cincinnati underachieved for much of the season, but finished the year playing very well. Atlanta is more banged up than is Cincinnati.

I'll take the plus price.

Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Oakland Athletics aren't the same team without Matt Chapman at third base. Chapman is the team's best hitter and he is their best fielder as well. Their upside is clearly much lower without him healthy. 

The Chicago White Sox absolutely crushed left handed pitching this year. They had the second highest weighted on base average in the majors against lefties. They had easily the highest ISO against lefties, so they hit for power really well against lefties. 

Jesus Luzardo starts here for the Oakland A's. He's a quality lefty who has excellent stuff, but doesn't have much experience. Luzardo's numbers for the season overall are mediocre. I don't like this matchup for him.

Lucas Giolito had an ugly first start to the season, but from the second start of the year forward he really threw the ball well. Excluding his first start, he had a 2.75 ERA and a 2.77 FIP. 

The White Sox clearly have the much stronger lineup here, and Giolito has been the better starting pitcher as well. 

I'll lay the short price.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd starts here against the Kansas City Royals. He shut them out last time against them, but this lineup has crushed him in his career overall. The Royals have a whopping .402 weighted on base average in 190 plate appearances against Boyd.

Boyd's numbers this year are far worse across the board than last year. He has given up a lot more hard hit batted balls. He is giving up home runs in bunches. That doesn't bode well for him here with the weather forecast of temperatures in the 80's and wind blowing out 15-20 mph. The ball will carry well in KC on Saturday.

Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals, and he hasn't pitched above Single A until this month. He has a 3.46 ERA, but his FIP is 7.03 so he has been very fortunate.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play on Oakland* The Los Angeles Dodgers just clinched the best record in the National League last night and the NL West title. The day after clinching and especially when they have the best record in the league wrapped up, many teams will sit out several key starters. I think the Dodgers will do the same here.

Oakland has more to play for than the Dodgers do right now. The A's also have a very good lefty in Sean Manaea starting in this one. Manaea has a 2.45 ERA and a 2.64 FIP in his last six starts. 

The Dodgers are elite against right handed pitching, but they have been no better than mediocre against lefties this season. 

Julio Urias is a quality lefty for the Dodgers as well, but he hasn't pitched very deep into games. I'm not sure the Dodgers will be looking to use their top bullpen options in this one.

The price is far too big considering the situation in this one.

Take Oakland. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox are 24-9 in their last 33 games overall. This team is playing some of the best baseball in the majors. They are coming off a loss last night, and I think we get a better effort from them here. They are 17-8 in their last 25 road games. They are 4-1 in their last 5 following a loss.

The Indians will have a bullpen game here with Cal Quantrill set to start this one. The Indians bullpen actually ranks 19th in the majors in ERA in the last month, and they have struggled quite a bit against top offenses. The White Sox are certainly a top offense.

Reynaldo Lopez is admittedly tough to trust all that much, but at this price it makes it much easier to take a chance. Additionally, the White Sox bullpen has been one of the top five in the majors in the last month. 

Take Chicago here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox start Reynaldo Lopez here. Reynaldo Lopez has been extremely shaky this year (and last for that matter). He has poor control and can really work himself into trouble and big innings for the opposition. 

In Lopez's last 10 starts, only one game hasn't gotten to a total of 8 runs (and that one was 7 runs). Five of the ten games have gotten to at least 11 runs. 

Cal Quantrill is slated to start this bullpen game for the Indians, and he's up against a very good White Sox offense. The White Sox should create plenty of scoring chances here against an Indians bullpen that has been in poor form of late. 

This total is set too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres start Mike Clevinger here. Clevinger is coming off an outing where he pitched 7 innings and allowed no runs against the Giants. Clevinger now faces a below average Seattle Mariners offense in Petco Park, which is still a very good pitchers park. 

Clevinger is backed by a great Padres bullpen. They have the best FIP of any bullpen in the last month. This is a deep bullpen that has been throwing the ball extremely well.

Justus Sheffield gets the start for the Mariners. Sheffield is a talented lefty who struggles at times to find the strike zone, but he has electric stuff and has a good swinging strike rate. 

The Padres are a very good offense, but they have been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Eric Hosmer is also out with an injury right now. 

Additionally, Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this one. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years in Major League Baseball. He's a guy I want behind the plate if I'm betting an under.

The Padres have held their opponent to one run or less in five of their last ten games. The Mariners are averaging just 2 runs per game in their last four contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees are absolutely on fire on offense right now. New York has scored 20 runs, 13 runs, and 10 runs in their last three games. The Yankees have only scored less than 6 runs twice in their last eight games.

Now the Yankees take on Martin Perez, who they have absolutely crushed. The Yankees lineup has a whopping .513 weighted on base average against Perez. Perez is a guy who walks too many batters and doesn't get enough swinging strikes. It's hard to see him having success here. 

Jordan Montgomery is a middle of the road lefty, and the Red Sox lineup still hits lefties well. Boston ranks in the top 8 offenses in the majors in the past two weeks overall.

The Yankees and Red Sox bullpens have both been bottom ten bullpens in the last 14 days. Even if the runs aren't there early on, there should be scoring chances later in the game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds have underachieved all season long until their last few contests. Cincinnati is finally starting to hit a little bit. The Reds bullpen is pitching much better as well.

Luis Castillo is on the hill for the Reds here. Castillo has been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season than the first half in his career thus far. He has allowed a .305 weighted on base average in the first half of the season in his career. He has allowed a .278 wOBA in the second half of the season. In September/October specifically, Castillo has a spectacular 2.48 ERA and has allowed only a .239 wOBA in his career.

Castillo has allowed only 9 hits and 3 runs in his last 15 innings pitched. He is rounding into form of late. He faces the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching this year. In fact, the Pirates have the worst wOBA against righties by more than 20 points this year. 

The Pirates bullpen has a ton of injuries now and Brubaker hasn't gone 6 innings in a start all year thus far. 

The Pirates have lost 7 straight games and they have lost 6 of those 7 by two runs or more.

Take Cincinnati -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers offenses aren't good against right handed pitching. Fortunately, they will be up against left handed pitchers here

Kansas City ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. The Royals rank 13th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Detroit ranks 27th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Tigers rank 5th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

The Royals offense has been on fire of late. Kansas City has scored an average of 7.33 runs per game in their last six games. 

The Tigers have allowed 12 runs or more in three of their last six games. Their bullpen has been the worst in baseball in the last couple weeks.

Boyd has gotten much worse this year and the Royals have a .413 wOBA against him. The Tigers have a .311 wOBA against Duffy.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners won big last night as a big underdog for us, and I'll back them again in a similar spot here. 

This is far more a fade of Arizona than me wanting to back Seattle. Arizona is 4-19 in their last 23 games. They are laying -150? Come on. Luke Weaver is a little more talented than Justin Dunn, but Weaver has been extremely shaky this year. I feel like you could only justify this price if the starting pitcher for Arizona was Jacob Degrom or someone of that level. 

Arizona appears to have totally mailed it in. They have nothing to play for at all. While Seattle's chances of making the playoffs aren't good, they have played well enough lately to have a chance. 

The DBacks offense is without Ketel Marte (it's best hitter in my opinion) due to an injury. 

This is a 50/50 type game for me, and we are getting a price that is far bigger than +100. We'll back Seattle as a big dog again on Sunday.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle ML* I like Zac Gallen a lot, but this price is out of control. I have to back the Mariners here. Justus Sheffield has been excellent in 4 of his last 5 starts. 

Sheffield walks a lot of batters, but the DBacks get the third fewest walks against lefties of any team in the majors. Arizona ranks dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year.

Gallen is likely to throw a good game as he usually does here, but the DBacks bullpen isn't any good. Additionally, Ketel Marte is on the injured list now, and he is the DBacks most consistent hitter.

Arizona is 4-18 in their last 22 games. Do we really think Arizona should be laying this kind of ridiculous price? Seattle has been playing quality baseball, and at this price they are more than worth the chance.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Erick Fedde here. There aren't many starting pitchers in baseball that I rate lower than Fedde right now. Fedde has a 5.29 ERA, and he has been very fortunate. Fedde has a 5.88 SIERA and a whopping 7.14 FIP. This guy has more walks than strikeouts through 32 and 1/3 innings. That's difficult to do. More than 40% of his batted balls have been classified as hard hit by Fangraphs. 

Fedde goes up against an Atlanta Braves offense that is first in the majors in every offensive category in the last couple weeks. The Braves have scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last ten games, and a couple of those games were double headers (7 innings). This lineup is on fire and Fedde isn't likely to slow them down.

Josh Tomlin has pitched ok for the Nationals, but he is aging and his stuff is mediocre at best. The Nationals actually rank 10th in wOBA in the last 14 days, and they have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians start Aaron Civale here. Civale has great control. He walks only 1.5 batters per nine innings pitched. He also has more than 10% swinging strikes so far this year, which is a solid number. The Kansas City Royals haven't faced Civale yet, and I think that gives him the advantage against the light hitting Royals offense.

Kansas City ranks 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This team has been decent against lefties, but they really struggle against right handed pitching. 

Cleveland ranks 22nd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Brady Singer is a highly touted right handed prospect for the Royals. Singer has had some difficulty in his last couple starts, but those were against the great White Sox lineup. The Indians haven't been very good offensively this season.

The weather here is a plus as well. Cool temperatures in Cleveland with a wind blowing in at 12 or 13 mph through this game definitely is helpful to an under.

Mike Estabrook is the umpire here and he ranks in the top ten umpires in baseball in percentage of pitches called a strike. A solid under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has heated up of late. The Rockies have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games. The San Diego Padres have been one of the best offenses in baseball all season. San Diego is more than capable of putting up a huge number on their own. The Padres have scored 10 runs or more in seven games since August 17. 

Antonio Senzatela isn't a guy I trust. Senzatela allows far too much hard contact. The Rockies bullpen is running on fumes now after Chi Chi Gonzalez was torched and the bullpen had to be in for the whole game yesterday. 

Zach Davies doesn't get many swings and misses, and the Rockies offense has seen a lot of him. The Padres bullpen hasn't been nearly as good as it was expected to be this season.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire here. He has called the smallest percentage of pitches a strikes of any umpire in the majors in the last few seasons. The over is 33-11 in his last 44 games behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has thrown at least 6 innings in each of his last seven starts. He hasn't allowed any more than 2 runs in any of those starts. In his last four starts combined, he has allowed a grand total of three runs. Gallen is an elite young pitcher and his stuff is tremendous.

Kevin Gausman's slider is a tough pitch to hit and this Diamondbacks offense has really been scuffling of late. They are struggling to string together hits and they have been playing a lot of youngsters who are unproven in their lineup.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. Miller's strikeout/walk ratio is the second highest in the majors in the last five years. He consistently is a strike caller.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Colorado Rockies upset the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-2 on Saturday night. I think the Dodgers are in a great spot to get back on the winning side in a big way here.

Ryan Castellani was terrible in Triple A last year. He was fortunate in his first couple big league starts this year, but his advanced metrics suggest it can't keep going like this. Castellani has 6.23 FIP and more than 58% of his batted balls have been classified as hard hit according to Fangraphs. He'll be used as an opener here and he'll be followed up by Chi Chi Gonzalez. Gonzalez is worse than Castellani.

Gonzalez is a guy I've made a lot of money fading in the past, and I'm not stopping here. Gonzalez has terrible control and he puts himself in a jam seemingly constantly. Simply put his stuff isn't very good (not big league quality) and he doesn't even control it well.

The Dodgers are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching and they face two weak right handed pitchers in this one.

Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers and he has above average stuff and he's facing a Rockies team that ranks in the bottom five offenses in the majors when on the road.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The San Francisco Giants have outperformed my expectations in a big way this year. The Giants lineup has been way better than I expected. They have been particularly good against left handed pitching. 

The Giants are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. San Francisco has hit for power against lefties as well (6th in ISO). Alex Young is a middle of the road lefty at best and I expect the Giants to create plenty of scoring opportunities here.

The Diamondbacks bullpen was never a strength this year, but they traded away multiple guys who were key to this bullpen in the last few years. Arizona has a 5.74 ERA in the last 14 days from their bullpen pitchers. The Giants bullpen has been much improved of late (2.75 ERA in the last 14 days).

The DBacks have nothing to play for at all. Arizona is 2-14 in their last 16 games. They are 0-9 in their last 9 vs. a right handed starter. 

Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star MLB Top Total of the Week* The Colorado Rockies start German Marquez here. Marquez has allowed a .343 weighted on base average to the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Marquez has a 10.13 ERA and a 5.57 FIP in his last three starts, so he enters this game in bad form as well.

The Dodgers lineup is a great one. They have been particularly good at home offensively. The depth of this lineup is tough for many pitchers to handle. 

Colorado's bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen in baseball, and the Dodgers could easily add on against this Rockies bullpen.

Tony Gonsolin is due for some regression. He has a 0.51 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 4.11 and his SIERA is 4.08. Gonsolin is a good pitcher, but he isn't this good. 

The weather is a big factor here too. The game time temperature is expected to be 105 degrees. That's one of the hottest temperatures you will ever see in Los Angeles. The ball was carrying very well on Friday night at Dodger Stadium, and it will be even hotter for this one. 

Finally, Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire for this game. Marquez is a great over umpire. He has called the fewest strikes of any umpire in the majors in the last three years. The over is a whopping 33-10 in his last 43 games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* The line has moved in a big way toward the Marlins, and that makes me take the much better team here.

Pablo Lopez has been terrific for the Marlins. This is certainly not a fade on him. It's a fade on the Marlins bullpen (which has been a bottom 5 bullpen in baseball) and the Miami hitters. Miami ranks 4th worst in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitchers.

Josh Fleming has good control and allows a lot of soft contact. Fleming is backed by an excellent bullpen for Tampa Bay. 

Tampa Bay is 38-14 in their last 52 vs. a right handed starter. Miami is 18-42 in their last 60 game against a team with a winning record. 

I'll lay the short price here.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* Austin Voth enters this game with a ridiculous 14.90 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 7.79 FIP in those starts. Voth has allowed 16 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. He goes up against an Atlanta offense today that is 3rd in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. In his last start against Atlanta he allowed 9 hits and 5 runs in only 4 innings pitched.

Tommy Milone starts here for the Atlanta Braves. Milone has a 7.90 ERA and a 7.09 FIP in his last three starts. He clearly comes into this one in very bad form as well. Washington hasn't hit right handers well this year, but they have torched lefties like Milone. Washington is second in the majors with a .374 wOBA against left handed pitching.

This is a 7 inning contest which is why the total is lower than you would expect with these pitchers and lineups. 

The weather here is 90 degrees and wind blowing out 8-10 mph. That helps the over as well.

Look for both starters to struggle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Toronto* The Toronto Blue Jays start Taijuan Walker in this one. Walker has been trending in the right direction of late. His exit velocity and hard hit rate on batted balls allowed is easily the best of his career thus far this season. He is now pitching for a contender and that has him excited about the rest of the year.

The Boston Red Sox are already talking about next year. Who can blame them? This is a short season and the Red Sox have dug too deep of a hole to contend in any way. Martin Perez starts in this one and he has had a blister issue of late. Even when he is completely healthy, Perez isn't very good. All of his advanced metrics are worse this year than last year. His velocity and his spin rates are down a lot and that is a troubling sign for him.

The Blue Jays have a good young lineup, and they also have a very underrated bullpen. Toronto ranks 4th in the majors in bullpen ERA. The Boston bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen in the majors. 

This is a fair price for a team with plenty to play for and the better starter and far better bullpen.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals have Max Scherzer on the mound here. With Scherzer on the mound, and laying such a short price, I have to back the road team here.

Washington is first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Nationals are coming off getting shut out by Aaron Nola yesterday. While Zack Wheeler is a solid pitcher, he doesn't have the stuff Nola does.

Scherzer went through a bad stretch a couple games ago, but he was at his best in his last game with his control and his velocity. He threw 6 innings and allowed one run against Boston in his last start. He walked none and struck out 11 in that game. 

The Nationals bullpen isn't a great one, but it is better than the Phillies. Philadelphia has the worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball. Even if the Phillies do have the lead earlier in the game, it isn't safe at all.

Take Washington here. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox have been absolutely mashing left handed pitching. Chicago has a .406 wOBA against lefties, and the second best team in the majors has a .382 wOBA against lefties. This lineup is built to hit southpaws. 

Rich Hill is a pretty good pitcher, but he is above 40 years old now and his skills are in decline. Against a loaded lineup like this he will likely have a tough time.

Lucas Giolito is coming off a no hitter. Some like to fade pitchers off no hitters, and that is exactly why the price is as low as it is here. Giolito had a bad start against the Twins in his first outing too. Still, Giolito is a very good pitcher, and he's backed by a red hot offense and a solid bullpen.

The Twins rank 29th in the majors (ahead of only the Pirates) in wOBA in the last 7 days. The White Sox rank 2nd. 

Chicago is 10-0 against left handed starters in their last 10. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall. A 15-0 angle.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 12-1 in their last 13 road games. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 25-8 in their last 33 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Yankees are badly banged up right now. Their lineup isn't even close to what it was at the beginning of the season. New York ranks 25th in weighted on base average in the last 7 days. Tampa Bay ranks 10th in that category. 

The Rays have the better bullpen and the better offense now. 

Tyler Glasnow has pitched really well in his last two starts, and this is a good plus money price on him. Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher, but he has been shaky of late.

This is a 50/50 game and I'm getting a nice plus money price.

Take Tampa Bay.