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Kyle Hunter MLB Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
08-26-12 Washington Nationals v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7.5 1-4 Win 100 11 h 58 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Cliff Lee continues to be hit by terrible luck this year. It's amazing to think he has only two wins this year. He probably deserves to have 10 or 11 by now, but the bullpen has blown game after game for him. Lee has looked more sharp of late, and I expect him to pitch deep into the game here. Morse and Desmond are both banged up for the Nationals. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He has been a quality start machine for much of the season. Look for a low scoring pitcher's duel here.
08-26-12 New York (A): F Garcia v. Cleveland: U Jimenez +1.5 4-2 Loss -109 10 h 40 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The New York Yankees simply aren't playing very good baseball right now. They won with Sabathia on the hill Friday night, but Freddy Garcia is far from Sabathia's level. In fact, at this point in his career Garcia really isn't a very good pitcher. Ubaldo Jimenez is extremely inconsistent, but he's typically good at home. The Indians aren't much more than even money when getting +1.5 in this one, and that is tough to overlook. I think Cleveland has a good chance to win the game, but I like the insurance here. Take Cleveland +1.5.
08-26-12 LA Anaheim: E Santana v. Detroit: M Scherzer OVER 9.5 2-5 Loss -110 10 h 35 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Angels and Tigers have played two low scoring games in this series so far, but I think this one sets up well for a high scoring contest. Ervin Santana and Max Scherzer are both extremely inconsistent pitchers who are more than capable of giving up 7 or 8 runs by themselves. Both of these lineups are very tough, and the temperature has heated back up in Detroit. Paul Emmel is the umpire here, and the over is 22-2 in his 24 games behind the dish this year. The over is 7-0 in Santana's last 7 starts on 4 days' rest. The over is 7-1 in his last 8 road starts. Take the over.
08-25-12 San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 9-3 Loss -106 17 h 29 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The San Diego Padres have a very weak lineup. San Diego is the worst offense in the National League right now other than the Astros. Ian Kennedy hasn't had his amazing form that he had in 2011, but I expect him to pitch well against the Padres here. Clayton Richard has been dealing of late. Richard has an ERA under 2 in his last 3 starts. The Padres are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against Arizona, so he has had success against them in the past. The under is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 road games. The under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two. Take the under.
08-25-12 St Louis: J Garcia -107 v. Cincinnati: M Leake 2-8 Loss -107 14 h 31 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals are playing great baseball now that they are healthy. The lineup may be the best in the National League now. Jaime Garcia is one of the team's best pitchers, and he pitched a shutout in his first game back from the DL earlier this week. Mike Leake has been getting hard around pretty hard of late. Garcia has had a lot of success in his career against Cincinnati. Joey Votto out of the middle of the lineup certainly makes the Reds offense much weaker. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games. They are 7-2 in Garcia's last 9 starts against the Reds. Take the Cardinals.
08-25-12 Minnesota: B Duensing v. Texas: R Dempster -1.5 3-9 Win 100 13 h 10 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Minnesota Twins start Brian Duensing in this one. Duensing has struggled all season, and he must go up against a red hot Texas offense that crushes left-handers. Duensing is a guy who gives up a ton of hits and pitches to contact, and I don't think that will work well against Texas. Ryan Dempster has been inconsistent since coming to Texas, but I think this is a good spot. Josh Willingham will probably miss this one again, which certainly hurts the Twins middle of the order. The Rangers have a big pitching advantage and an even bigger lineup edge. Take Texas -1.5.
08-24-12 Oakland A's v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7 5-4 Loss -110 19 h 11 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jarrod Parker and Matt Moore are two terrific young pitchers. Parker nearly no-hit the Rangers earlier this year, and Moore has been brilliant of late. Neither of these offenses are particularly strong. Parker has a 3.48 ERA on the year while Moore has a 3.57 ERA. Moore's ERA in his last 3 starts is 1.86. The under is 4-0 in Athletics last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in Parker's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 home games against teams with a winning record. I expect a pitching duel here. Take the under.
08-24-12 Milwaukee: M Fiers -116 v. Pittsburgh: W Rodriguz 6-5 Win 100 16 h 14 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers are playing decent baseball right now. The Brewers have a solid lineup with Braun, Weeks, Hart, and Ramirez in the middle of the order all healthy right now. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been slumping in a big way of late. You had to wonder when it would happen to this team, and it seems to have finally hit. Pittsburgh simply isn't as good as they have played to this point this year. Milwaukee is more well-rounded team, and they have a very good starter on the hill here. Michael Fiers is a great young righty who has deceptively great stuff. The Brewers are 49-16 in their last 65 games against Pittsburgh. Take Milwaukee.
08-24-12 LA Anaheim: Z Greinke v. Detroit: R Porcello OVER 9 2-1 Loss -110 6 h 16 m Show
*3 Star MLB Bookie BEATDOWN* The Los Angeles Angels offense is firing on all cylinders right now (see their stats at Boston during this past series), and I don't think Rick Porcello is the type of pitcher to slow them down. In 6 career starts against the Angels, Porcello has a 6.29 ERA. Zack Greinke has been terrible of late. He has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts. Greinke has been bad on the road all year. Detroit has several guys with good numbers against him. The over is 6-0 in Porcello's last 6 starts against the Angels. The over is 6-0 in the Angels last 6 games as an underdog. The over is 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 starts. Take the over.
08-23-12 Atlanta Braves -111 v. San Francisco Giants 2-5 Loss -111 20 h 5 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Atlanta Braves have been one of my favorite teams to back so far this year. Atlanta has a very deep lineup and a very good bullpen. Tommy Hanson appears to be healthy once again, and he is a solid pitcher. Barry Zito is a streaky pitcher, and he has been pitching poorly of late. Zito shut down the Braves offense earlier this year, but I don't think he'll do it twice. Without Melky Cabrera, the Giants certainly don't have as deep of a lineup as Atlanta. The pitching edge and lineup edge both go to the Braves. Atlanta is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. They are 6-0 in Hanson's last 6 as a -110 to -150 favorite. Atlanta is 4-0 in their last 4 games at San Francisco. Take the Braves.
08-23-12 Minnesota: S Diamond +180 v. Texas: R Oswalt 6-10 Loss -100 18 h 31 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Roy Oswalt has looked like he is out there throwing batting practice so far this year. Oswalt simply doesn't have good stuff, and even when he has won it has been because of the Rangers offense rather than him. Scott Diamond is 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA. Diamond is a tough lefty, and the Rangers haven't seen him at all yet. Minnesota's offense has been much better of late since they are healthy. I like Texas a lot, but they shouldn't be laying nearly -200 with Roy Oswalt on the mound. This is a major value play. Take Minnesota.
08-23-12 Oakland A's v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7.5 0-5 Loss -110 17 h 54 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Bartolo Colon would have been in this spot, but he has been suspended for 50 games after testing positive for prohibited supplements. Tyson Ross will start here instead. Ross is a guy who has poor control. He walks a lot of people and pitches out of the stretch often. Tampa Bay's offense has been much better of late. Alex Cobb is inconsistent and he has an ERA in the high 4's. A total set this low with inconsistent pitchers looks like a nice over play. This should be higher scoring than expected. Take the over.
08-22-12 Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 9 7-3 Loss -120 17 h 18 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Clay Buchholz was one of the worst pitchers in the majors through the first couple months of the season, but he has turned it around in a big way. Buchholz has a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts. He is throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count. Jeff Weaver was lit up last game for the first time this year. Weaver is a candidate for AL CY Young and I expect him to bounce back strong here. Neither of these offenses are clicking particularly well right now. Brian Runge is a great under umpire behind the dish. Take the under here.
08-22-12 Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners -120 1-3 Win 100 14 h 46 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Cleveland Indians are in a ridiculous tailspin right now. The Indians have quite a bit of talent, but it almost looks like the team has quit of late. On the other side, Seattle's lineup is very weak but this team has tons of confidence right now. King Felix got it all started with his perfect game, and now this Mariners team is only five games below .500. Iwakuma has been great for Seattle at home this season. He has a 2.53 ERA at Safeco this year. The Indians are 0-11 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 0-7 in their last 7 against the AL West. The Mariners are 7-0 in their last 7 games. Take Seattle.
08-22-12 Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's OVER 8 1-5 Loss -115 14 h 40 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Tom Milone was virtually unhittable at home through most of the season, but it seems he has hit a wall of late. In his last four starts he has allowed 21 runs. The Twins offense is healthy now, and they are fully capable of putting up several runs here. Liam Hendriks pitches for the Twins, and he has struggled badly on the road. He has a 9.00 ERA away from home this year. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in Milone's last 4 starts. The over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 between these two teams in Oakland. Take the over.
08-21-12 San Francisco: T Lincecum v. Los Angeles: J Blanton OVER 7.5 4-1 Loss -100 20 h 14 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Tim Lincecum has struggled all season against quality lineups. The Dodgers lineup is much better now with Victorino, Kemp, Ethier, and Hanley Ramirez all very dangerous in the lineup. The Giants lineup is pretty good as well, and Joe Blanton simply isn't any better than a mediocre pitcher. Blanton has a horrible 8.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. The over is 7-0 in Lincecum's last 7 as a road underdog. The over is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 against a righty. Take the over here.
08-21-12 Houston Astros v. St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 0-7 Win 100 18 h 29 m Show
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Houston Astros are easily the worst team in baseball. Lucas Harrell has been pitching well for them of late, but he hasn't been facing lineups like the Cardinals. St. Louis has a terrific lineup now that virtually everyone is healthy. Adam Wainwright wasn't himself at the beginning of the season, but he has been superb of late. Wainwright has five straight quality starts, and I don't see that ending against the Astros. Houston is 10-43 in their last 53 road games. The Cardinals are 12-1 in Wainwright's last 13 against the Astros. Take St. Louis -1.5.
08-21-12 New York Yankees v. Chicago White Sox OVER 9 3-7 Win 100 18 h 24 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees may have the best lineup in baseball right now. Ichiro Suzuki gives the team another great hitter at the bottom of the order. Everyone in the lineup is capable of going deep. Francisco Liriano is an inconsistent pitcher, and I don't see him shutting down the Yankees. Ivan Nova has pitched very poorly of late. Nova has 6.38 ERA in his last 3 starts. The White Sox offense has been clicking of late. The over is 6-0 in Nova's last 6 as an underdog. Look for a high scoring game here. Take the over.
08-20-12 Minnesota: B Duensing v. Oakland: B Mccarthy -1.5 7-2 Loss -100 20 h 53 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Brian Duensing really shouldn't be starting in the major leagues, but the Twins just don't have many options right now. Duensing has allowed 5 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. One of those starts was against Oakland, who put up 6 runs in two innings against him in July. Brandon McCarthy is pitching great for the A's. McCarthy has an amazing 1.57 ERA at home this year. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games. They are 0-6 in Duensing's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The A's are 4-0 in their last 4. Take Oakland -1.5.
08-20-12 Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 4-5 Loss -120 18 h 6 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Tim Hudson and Jordan Zimmerman are two very good pitchers. In fact, you could make a good argument that Zimmerman is one of the best pitchers in the majors right now. Zimmerman simply doesn't get the attention he deserves, but that gives us great value on the under in his games. Zimmerman has a great 2.38 ERA this year. Hudson has a spectacular 3.06 ERA on the road this season. The under is 14-3 in the Braves last 17 against a righty. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 in the first game of a series. Take the under.
08-20-12 Kansas City Royals v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 1-5 Win 100 17 h 57 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jeremy Hellickson was on the other side when King Felix threw his perfect game last week. Hellickson was the tough luck loser after giving up just one run in the game. Hellickson has a great history of pitching well in Tampa Bay. The Rays piled up the runs this past weekend, which I believe has given us some extra value on the under here. Tampa Bay's offense is certainly better now that they are healthy, but this still isn't a particularly potent offensive team. The under is 22-5-2 in Hellickson's last 29 home starts. The under is 106-49-8 in the Rays last 163 home games. Take the under.
08-19-12 Miami Marlins -122 v. Colorado Rockies 2-3 Loss -122 12 h 58 m Show
3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* Josh Johnson is one of the best pitchers in the National League. Johnson hasn't been terrific this year, but he seems to be getting healthy now. Colorado will be without Carlos Gonzalez which is a huge hit to their lineup. Drew Pomeranz has had a chest injury and he may be limited in this game. The Rockies bullpen inn't good, and if Pomeranz can't stay in the game long, that should help the Marlins. Miami has the better pitcher and the better lineup in this one. With the Marlins as a short favorite, I like the value. Take Miami.
08-19-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9 8-0 Loss -113 11 h 7 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Kyle Kendrick and Randy Wolf are two pitchers I like to play the 'over' with. Both of these guys are very inconsistent, and they allow a lot of base runners. The Brewers offense has been very good of late, especially at home. The Phillies offense isn't great, but it is better than most realize. The over is 21-5 in Kendrick's last 26 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 games following a loss. Look for both starting pitchers to struggle. Take the over in this one.
08-19-12 Baltimore: W Chen v. Detroit: D Fister UNDER 8.5 7-5 Loss -113 10 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Baltimore Orioles took Game Two last night in Detroit, and this one will be the rubber match. This series has a bit of a playoff atmosphere to it. Both teams are fighting for the wild card spots right now to get into the playoffs. Chen has been the Orioles best pitcher all year. Fister has been excellent of late. Detroit has struggled against lefties this season. The under is 9-0 in Baltimore's last 9 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in Chen's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under.
08-18-12 Minnesota: S Diamond v. Seattle: J Vargas UNDER 7 2-3 Win 100 19 h 53 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners can't hit much at all at home. Seattle has the worst batting average in the majors at home this year. Scott Diamond is the Twins best pitcher by quite a bit right now. Diamond has an ERA under 3 in his rookie season. On the other side, Jason Vargas is terrific at home. He has an ERA just about 2.5 at home this season. This is a pitchers ballpark and neither team seems likely to get much going here. The under is 7-0 in Vargas' last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the under.
08-18-12 San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres OVER 7.5 8-7 Win 100 18 h 28 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The San Francisco Giants have been red hot at the plate of late. Eric Stults has been solid so far this year, but I don't expect him to have the stuff to shut down the Giants. With Panda, Posey, and Pence in the middle of the order the Giants are a real threat on offense now. Barry Zito is pitching poorly of late, and when it goes bad for him it often goes very bad. He has an ERA above 7 in his last 3 starts. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6. The over is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 road games against a lefty. The over is 4-0 in Zito's last 4 starts on 5 days rest. The over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between these teams in San Diego. Take the over.
08-18-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Milwaukee Brewers -105 4-3 Loss -105 17 h 3 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The Philadelphia Phillies don't have much of anything to play for right now. This is a team that had very high expectations that are now a distant memory. Michael Fiers is a terrific young pitcher for Milwaukee. Fiers was blasted at Coors Field in his last outing, but I fully expect a huge bounce back effort here. Fiers has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of his last 10 games. Cole Hamels is very good, but some of the Brewers have decent numbers against him. Milwaukee is 8-0 in their last 8 home games. Take Milwaukee.
08-18-12 New York (N): J Niese v. Washington: E Jackson OVER 8 2-0 Loss -100 17 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total Winner* Don't look now, but the Washington Nationals now have a pretty good offense. The Nationals have won with pitching all year, but now that they are healthy they are scoring runs in bunches. Washington has scored more runs than any other team in the majors since the All-Star break. Edwin Jackson is a streaky pitcher who has been struggling of late, and I expect the Mets to put up some runs here. The over is 7-0 in the Nationals last 7 games overall. The over is 7-0 in the Nationals last 7 against a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in the Mets last 5 Saturday games. Take the over.
08-18-12 Pittsburgh: E Bedard v. St Louis: L Lynn OVER 8 4-5 Win 100 14 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Erik Bedard has some ridiculous home/away splits this year. Bedard has a sparkling 2.63 ERA at home and a horrible 6.75 ERA on the road. He'll face a Cardinals lineup that is very good against lefties in this one. St. Louis averages 5.36 runs per game against lefties this year. Lance Lynn has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 10 starts. He seems to have lost control of his fastball of late. Both of these teams have been hitting the ball well of late, and we get a solid over umpire here too. Take the over.
08-17-12 Pittsburgh Pirates v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 8.5 2-1 Loss -100 18 h 35 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* James McDonald was terrific earlier this year, but the wheels have fallen off for him of late. The Cardinals arguably have the best lineup in the National League now that they are healthy. St. Louis lost in a heartbreaker last night, and I expect the offense to be ready for this one. Jake Westbrook has been good this year, but the Pirates have hit him hard in the past. Neither pitcher seems destined to have a very good game here. I think this total is set too low. I like the value on the over in this contest.
08-17-12 Boston: F Morales v. New York (A): P Hughes OVER 9.5 4-6 Win 100 17 h 56 m Show
*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees MLB Total* The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees may be going in different directions, but they are still major rivals. Both offenses are patient and can score runs in bunches. Phil Hughes has been shaky again of late, and the Red Sox have hit him very well in the past. Morales has pitched well this year, but the Yankees are great against lefties. The over is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 against the Red Sox. The over is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts overall. The total is set relatively low for a Red Sox/Yankees game. Take the over.
08-17-12 Texas: Y Darvish -1.5 v. Toronto: J Happ Top 2-3 Loss -100 17 h 56 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Play Crusher* The Texas Rangers lost 3 of 4 to the Yankees. They did pound out 10 runs on 16 hits to win the final game of the series yesterday though. Texas is a team that can get hot in a hurry and stay red hot. J.A. Happ is the perfect pitcher for this patient Texas offense to put up runs against. Happ allows tons of base runners thanks to poor control. He shouldn't be able to get out of all those jams against this amazing offense. Yu Darvish hasn't been great of late, but the Blue Jays lineup looks like a Triple A lineup at this point. This is a great chance for Darvish to get back his form. The Blue Jays are 3-10 in their last 13 against a righty. I expect this to get ugly. Take Texas -1.5.
08-16-12 Philadelphia Phillies -113 v. Milwaukee Brewers 4-7 Loss -113 18 h 13 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Cliff Lee has been one of the worst luck pitchers in baseball this year. It's hard to imagine Lee being 2-7 this year, but that is the case. Lee has a solid 1.18 WHIP and a 3.85 ERA. He has pitched even better of late. On the other side, Marco Estrada pitches for the Brewers. Estrada isn't really a starting pitcher, but the Brewers need him to fill in since they have injuries. Estrada is 0-5 this year with a 4.36 ERA. The Phillies have played a little better of late, and they have a huge pitching advantage here. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. They are 4-0 in their last 4 against a righty. The Brewers are 0-7 in Estrada's last 7 starts as an underdog. Take the Phillies.
08-16-12 Los Angeles: J Blanton v. Pittsburgh: A Burnett OVER 7.5 6-10 Win 100 14 h 8 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* A.J. Burnett has been terrific all year. Still, Burnett is an inconsistent pitcher who is capable of getting lit up at any point. The Dodgers lineup has quickly become one of the best in the NL. With Kemp, Ethier, Victorino, and Ramirez this team can pile up the runs. On the other side, Joe Blanton starts for the Dodgers and he certainly isn't a guy you can trust. Blanton is a guy who typically ends with an ERA of about 5 every year. Angel Campos is an over umpire, and this one is set too low. Take the over.
08-16-12 Texas: D Holland v. New York (A): I Nova -118 10-6 Loss -118 11 h 10 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Derek Holland simply hasn't had any luck against the Yankees in his career. He has an 0-5 record and a 9.26 ERA in 34 innings against the Yankees. The Yankees lineup is even deeper now with Ichiro Suzuki on the team. The Rangers have had serious trouble at Yankee Stadium, and I don't see Holland ending that trend. The Rangers are 0-8 in their last 8 games at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Yankees.
08-15-12 Arizona Diamondbacks v. St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 2-5 Win 130 19 h 39 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the majors when healthy. It appears he is healthy once again. At the beginning of the season he wasn't himself, but he has been great of late. Wainwright has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last four starts. Joe Saunders has been solid this year, but the Cardinals offense is healthy now, and they crush lefties. The Cardinals have the much better lineup and the much better starting pitcher here. Look for St. Louis to take care of business. Take St. Louis -1.5.
08-15-12 Washington: Strasburg -118 v. San Francisco: T Lincecum 6-4 Win 100 14 h 17 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Tim Lincecum hasn't been himself this year. He has been better in his last three starts, but those starts were against weak lineups. Lincecum has been worse during the daytime in his career, and the Nationals have scored more runs than anyone else in the majors since the All-Star break. Stephen Strasburg had one bad start against Philly, but he has been great on the road this year. Strasburg is 8-2 with a 2.41 ERA on the road this season. The Nationals are 11-0 in Strasburg's last 11 starts during Game 3 of a series. They are also 13-3 in his last 16 road starts. Take the Nationals.
08-15-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7 2-9 Loss -100 11 h 37 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Roy Halladay didn't look healthy when he first came back from the disabled list, but he has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings pitched. The Miami Marlins have been shutout in three straight games. It's hard to imagine them getting too many against Halladay. Mark Buehrle has been great at home all year. Buehrle has a 2.94 ERA at home this year. He also has a 2.50 ERA in day games this year. The Phillies are likely to sit some of their stars here since this is a get away day. The under is 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 as a road favorite. The under is 4-0-2 in Buehrle's last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. Take the under.
08-14-12 Houston: L Harrell v. Chicago (N): C Volstad -115 10-1 Loss -115 18 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* I'll be the first to admit that I don't like betting on the Chicago Cubs at this point. They aren't a good team at all, but they are still much better than the Houston Astros. This is a major value play. Houston is 9-42 in their last 51 road games. The Cubs are 27-25 at home this year. Chris Volstad isn't a good pitcher, but he has looked somewhat better of late and this Astros lineup can make pitchers look great. Harrell has been great at home, but not on the road. The Astros are 0-6 in his last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 at Wrigley. The Cubs are 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning % below 40%. Take the Cubs.
08-14-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 1-0 Loss -105 17 h 3 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Kyle Kendrick isn't a reliable pitcher. The Marlins offense hasn't been good of late, but they should be able to get to Kendrick some in this one. Josh Johnson is still getting huge respect from the oddsmakers, but he is 7-8 with a 3.88 ERA this year. Johnson is still a pretty good pitcher, but he doesn't have the dominating form of the last couple years. The Phillies offense is better than most realize right now, and the Marlins now have Stanton back in the lineup. Look for a higher scoring game here. Take the over.
08-14-12 Texas: M Harrison v. New York (A): H Kuroda -131 0-3 Win 100 16 h 18 m Show
*3 Star Rangers/Yankees Guaranteed Cash* The Yankees and Rangers are duking it out right now for the best record in the American League. With last night's win the Yankees took back the overall top spot. Matt Harrison has been struggling a bit of late, and his career ERA against the Yankees is 4.76. Harrison has been sick and still isn't 100% right now. The Yankees lineup is extremely strong right now, and Ichiro gives them extra depth. Hiroki Kuroda has been lights out at home this season. The Yankees are 5-0 in his last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games at New York. Take the Yankees.
08-13-12 Washington: G Gonzalez v. San Francisco: Vogelsong -122 14-2 Loss -122 21 h 10 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* The Washington Nationals have the best record in baseball, but I believe there's a lot of value on the Giants here. People keep underrating Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong was amazing last year, and his numbers are even better in 2012. He leads the National League in ERA. The Giants lineup is pretty good now with Cabrera, Posey, and Pence in the middle of the order. Gio Gonzalez has been very good this year, but he has thrown a lot of pitches in his last couple starts. The Giants are 9-0 in Vogelsong's last 9 starts as a favorite. They are also 8-1 in his last 9 home starts. Take the Giants.
08-13-12 Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies 6-9 Loss -100 20 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Jeff Francis had a few solid starts in his first several outings with Colorado, but he has a 10.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. Francis simply doesn't have good enough stuff to consistently shut down good lineups. Milwaukee has been hitting the ball much better of late, and I expect them to do some major damage against Francis. Michael Fiers has been a brilliant rookie pitcher for the Brewers this year. Fiers has a 1.80 ERA, and he hasn't given up more than 2 runs in any of his last 10 starts. The Rockies are 17-41 in their last 58 games. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
08-13-12 San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 4-1 Loss -100 19 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Atlanta Braves haven't lost consecutive games in three weeks. Atlanta dropped a 6-5 decision against the Mets last night. I think a matchup against a poor San Diego team is a good chance for Atlanta to get back on track. Eric Stults doesn't have much experience as a starter, and I expect the Braves offense to get to him early. Mike Minor had a horrible stretch earlier this year, but he has been pitching well of late. The Braves are 24-9 in their last 33 games. Look for Atlanta to take care of business. Take Atlanta -1.5.
08-12-12 Atlanta: B Sheets -110 v. New York (N): J Niese 5-6 Loss -110 19 h 45 m Show
*3 Star Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Atlanta Braves are playing about as well as anyone in baseball right now. This is a team I think is very capable of making noise in the postseason. Atlanta has great depth in the lineup, and they are pretty healthy right now. Ben Sheets continues to get very little respect from the oddsmakers. Sheets used to be an Ace for the Brewers, and he has 4 great starts and one mediocre start for Atlanta this year. Jon Niese has struggled against the Braves in the past. Atlanta is 5-0 in their last 5 as a -110 to -150 favorite. The Braves are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with New York. The Mets are 0-8 in their last 8 as a home underdog. A 20-0 winning angle backs this one. Take Atlanta.
08-12-12 Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 4-7 Loss -113 15 h 55 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals are playing some amazing baseball right now. There weren't many who expected them to have the best record in baseball at this point. Washington has done it with tremendous pitching. Ross Detwiler has a 2.99 ERA on the season. He has been very sharp of late. Patrick Corbin is a highly touted prospect for the Diamondbacks, and he has been good in his last three starts. D.J. Reyburn is the umpire here, and he has a wide strike zone. Look for a low scoring contest here. Take the under.
08-12-12 Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 3-5 Loss -105 12 h 26 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Bruce Chen has some ridiculous splits this season. Chen has been decent at home, but he has a horrible 6.29 ERA on the road this year. Tommy Hunter has a 5.55 ERA overall this year, and he just doesn't have the kind of stuff to put away good hitters on a consistent basis. Hunter has a 6.53 ERA during the daytime this year. Chen has an awful 8.10 ERA during the day this year. The over is 7-1-1 in Chen's last 9 starts. Angel Campos is one of the best over umpires in the business and he is behind the dish here. Take the over.
08-11-12 New York (A): I Nova -1.5 v. Toronto: A Laffey 5-2 Win 111 11 h 41 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The New York Yankees may well be the best team in baseball right now. The Yankees pitching staff has gotten much better over the year, which has made them a complete team. Ivan Nova has been great on the road this year, and the Yankees lineup has given him some terrific run support. Nova is 7-2 with a 3.87 ERA on the road. Aaron Laffey is a lefty with only ordinary stuff, and the Yankees hit the ball well against lefties. Toronto is without Lawrie, Arencibia, Bautista, and Lind. The Yankees just have way more firepower than the Blue Jays at this point. The Yankees are 14-3 in Nova's last 17 starts against a team with a losing record. Take New York -1.5.
08-10-12 Boston: C Buchholz -1.5 v. Cleveland: C Seddon 3-2 Loss -100 14 h 54 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Clay Buchholz was one of baseball's worst pitchers through the first two months of the year, but he has been pretty good of late. Buchholz has good stuff, and when he is in a groove he is tough to hit. Cleveland is in a major slump right now, and their lineup is short-handed. On the other side, Chris Seddon starts for Cleveland. It appears Seddon simply isn't a big league pitcher at this stage, but the team doesn't have many other options. The Red Sox have made a habit of crushing lefties this year, and I think they should get to him early and often in this one. Boston in 25-10 in Buchholz's last 35 road starts. They are 11-5 in their last 16 against lefties. Look for this one to get ugly. Take the Red Sox -1.5.
08-09-12 San Francisco: Bumgarner v. St Louis: Wainwright UNDER 7.5 1-3 Win 100 12 h 6 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The San Francisco Giants beat the St. Louis Cardinals 15-0 last night. The Cardinals have Adam Wainwright on the hill for this one, and he has been rounding into form of late. Wainwright has a 2.01 ERA in his last three starts. Madison Bumgarner has been very good all year for the Giants. Bumgarner is 12-6 with a 3.03 ERA in 2012. This is a day game on get away day, and that usually means that lineups may be a bit weaker than normal. Brian Runge is the umpire here, and he has a huge strike zone. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 games behind home plate. Look for a well-pitched game from both sides in this one. Take the under.
08-08-12 Cincinnati Reds -132 v. Milwaukee Brewers 2-3 Loss -132 12 h 32 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Cincinnati Reds have the best record in the National League, but they have lost their first two games in Milwaukee. The matchups look good for them to avoid the sweep here. Mat Latos has been great after starting slowly this year. Latos has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. Randy Wolf isn't a very good pitcher at this point in his career. Wolf has a 5.57 ERA this year. The Reds are great against lefties. The two lineups here may be about equal, but the Reds have the huge starting pitching and bullpen advantage. The Brewers are 0-8 in Wolf's last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 against a lefty. They are also 7-0 in Latos' last 7 against the NL Central. Take the Reds.
08-07-12 Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 1-3 Win 100 19 h 2 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Michael Fiers is flying under the radar so far, but that is fine with me. Fiers is a very good young pitcher who has a deceptive delivery. In 11 starts he has a 1.88 ERA. The Reds lineup has slumped a bit in the last few days and they might be starting to miss Votto. Johnny Cueto has a 2.52 ERA for the year, and he has been consistently very good all season. These two pitchers squared off a few weeks ago in Cincinnati and the final was 2-1 Reds. Look for another low scoring tight contest. Take the under.
08-07-12 Texas Rangers +106 v. Boston Red Sox 6-3 Win 106 18 h 1 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Texas Rangers are arguably the best team in baseball despite a recent bad streak. Texas has the deepest lineup in baseball and a pretty reliable pitching staff. Ryan Dempster has been great this year as a Cub, and you have to think he'll bounce back from his horrible first start with Texas. Jon Lester has been blasted all year and the Rangers are great against lefties. The Red Sox are a .500 team, and getting the Rangers at plus money seems like a great value. Take Texas in this one.
08-07-12 Minnesota: S Deduno +109 v. Cleveland: C Kluber 7-5 Win 109 18 h 47 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Samuel Deduno has been doubted for too long. Deduno has a 2.48 ERA this year, and he has a sparkling 0.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. One of those starts was against the Indians, where he gave up only one run in seven innings. The Twins are actually above .500 since the beginning of May. The Indians have been awful of late. Kluber doesn't look ready for the majors yet for Cleveland, and the Twins lineup is smashing the baseball right now. Minnesota is a dangerous offense when healthy. The Twins are 4-0 in Deduno's last 4 starts. They are also 6-0 in their last 6 games against Cleveland. The Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a righty. Take the Twins here.
08-06-12 Cincinnati Reds +122 v. Milwaukee Brewers 3-6 Loss -100 17 h 22 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Cincinnati Reds have won 14 of their last 16 games. The offense has many guys contributing right now, and the bullpen is the best in all of baseball. Yovani Gallardo is a good pitcher, but he struggles badly against the Reds. He is 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in his 14 starts against the Reds in his career. Bronson Arroyo is better on the road than at home. Arroyo has a 3.39 ERA on the road this season. The Reds have the best record in baseball right now, and they are a much more complete team than the Brewers. Cincinnati is 9-0 in their last 9 road games. The Brewers are 2-8 in Gallardo's last 10 starts against the Reds. The Reds are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the Reds.
08-05-12 Los Angeles Angels v. Chicago White Sox OVER 9.5 2-4 Loss -120 12 h 4 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Dan Haren had a down year by his standards, and he doesn't seem to be completely healthy. The White Sox are seventh in the majors in runs scored, so they definitely can put up some runs. Francisco Liriano has been extremely inconsistent this year. The Angels have scored ten runs on him in his two starts against them this season. The Angels' offense is producing as well as anyone in baseball right now. The over is 6-0 in the Angels last 6 as an underdog. The over is 6-0 in the White Sox last 6 home games. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. Take the over.
08-05-12 Seattle: H Iwakuma v. New York (A): F Garcia OVER 10 2-6 Loss -106 10 h 21 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Freddie Garcia starts here for the Yankees. Garcia has an ERA over 6 at home this year and over 7 in day games this year. Seattle's offense has been decent on the road, and I suspect they should be able to put up several runs against Garcia. The Yankees lineup was shut out yesterday by Felix Hernandez. Expect the Yankees the get back on track against a much less talented pitcher Sunday afternoon. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15-20 mph, and we have an umpire with a small strike zone here. Take the over.
08-05-12 Cleveland: C Seddon v. Detroit: M Scherzer OVER 9.5 8-10 Win 100 10 h 21 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Max Scherzer has a good record this year, but that is primarily because he gets great run support. Scherzer has been inconsistent, and he is fully capable of giving up a bunch of runs in a single inning. Cleveland has several guys who have hit him extremely well in the past. Chris Seddon starts for the Indians. Seddon hasn't pitched in the major leagues in two years. In his short career in the majors, he had an ERA above 7. He has pitched decent in AAA this year, but I don't think he'll fare well against a strong Tigers lineup. Take the over.
08-04-12 Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 4-0 Win 100 17 h 28 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jeremy Hellickson has been great at home through his first few years in the majors. Baltimore's offense has struggled a bit of late. Wei-Yin Chen has pitched extremely well of late. He is a left-hander with good command of all his pitches. Tampa Bay's offense is short-handed right now, and the Rays struggle mightily against lefties. The under is 21-5-2 in Hellickson's last 28 home starts. The under is also 101-48-8 in the Rays last 157 home games. Look for a low scoring contest. Take the under.
08-04-12 Texas Rangers v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 4-2 Loss -110 17 h 14 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Texas Rangers' offense has struggled through the last few weeks, but I'm confident this team will start scoring runs in bunches again soon. This lineup is simply too deep and too good to keep down. Will Smith has had a couple nice starts for the Royals, but I don't think he is ready for a team who hits left-handers as well as Texas does. Scott Feldman is an extremely inconsistent pitcher, and I expect the Royals to score several. Tim McClelland is the home umpire here, and he pinches the strike zone as much as any umpire does in the league. The over is 18-7-1 in Feldman's last 26 starts vs a team with a losing record. Take the over.
08-04-12 Seattle: F Hernandz v. New York (A): H Kuroda UNDER 8 1-0 Win 100 12 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Hiroki Kuroda has started 4 games during the daytime this season. He has pitched 30 innings in those games, and he has yet to give up an earned run. A 0.0 ERA through 30 innings is something that really catches my eye. Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he seems to rise to the occasion when he plays against the Yankees. Both of these pitchers are fully capable of shutting down the opposing offense. The under is 4-0 in Seattle's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record. Take the under.
08-03-12 SF GIANTS -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies 16-4 Win 104 19 h 17 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Jonathan Sanchez has been arguably the worst pitcher in all of baseball this year. He has an ERA of nearly 8 on the season. Sanchez walks far too many batters and seems to constantly work out of trouble. The Giants have a much improved lineup this year. Ryan Vogelsong has been one of baseball's most underrated pitchers for the past two years. This is a guy who consistently goes out and gives his team a quality start and a good chance to win. The Giants are 5-0 in Vogelsong's last 5 against Colorado. They are also 8-0 in his last 8 starts as a favorite. Take the Giants -1.5.
08-03-12 Texas Rangers -1.5 v. Kansas City Royals 5-3 Win 100 18 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Major Mismatch* Other than a couple horrible starts early in the season, Matt Harrison has been great in 2012. He comes into this game with a 12-6 record and an ERA slightly above 3. Kansas City has struggled against left-handed pitching all season. Jeremy Guthrie starts for the Royals, and he has been hit hard by everyone this season. Guthrie has an overall ERA near 7 in 2012. The Rangers still have the deepest lineup in all of baseball, and I expect them to pour it on in this one.
This on should get ugly. Take Texas -1.5.
08-03-12 Houston Astros v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 1-4 Win 100 18 h 58 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* It's extremely rare for me to want to play such a huge favorite, but in this case I feel it is warranted. Armando Galarraga hasn't been in the majors much this season. He has poor control over his pitches, and I think the Braves lineup has plenty of firepower to put up a bunch of runs on him. Tim Hudson starts for the Braves, and he is a very consistent quality starting pitcher. The Braves are making a serious playoff push right now. The Braves are 4-0 in Hudson's last 4 starts against Houston. Houston is 0-5 in their last 5 against Atlanta. The Astros are 9-43 in their last 52 road games. Take Atlanta -1.5.
08-02-12 Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox OVER 10 5-0 Loss -105 18 h 14 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Minnesota Twins offense has gotten healthy over the last few weeks. Minnesota has been piling up the runs of late, especially against left-handed pitching. Jon Lester has been awful this year, and he has been even worse of late. Lester has a 13.50 ERA in his last three starts. Samuel Deduno has been solid this year, but he should struggle against this great Boston lineup. Boston is really swinging it well now that they are healthy. Look for the Red Sox to put up the runs in bunches down the stretch this season. The over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 road games. The over is 4-0 in Lester's last 4 starts. A nice 9-0 angle backs this one, and I like both teams to put up a big number here. Take the over.
08-01-12 Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 4-2 Loss -100 18 h 25 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Miami Marlins are really in trouble right now. They have unloaded some key pieces over the last couple weeks, and Stanton is still out of the lineup. Atlanta is playing some terrific baseball, and the Braves have one of the deepest lineups in all of baseball. Ben Sheets has allowed just one run in his first three starts with the Braves. Sheets has great stuff, and the Marlins offense is struggling in a big way right now. The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 as a favorite. The Marlins are 5-16 in their last 21 road games. Take Atlanta -1.5.
08-01-12 Houston: J Lyles v. Milwaukee: M Fiers -1.5 4-13 Win 100 14 h 36 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Milwaukee Brewers offense has finally gotten red hot of late. Guys like Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart are really starting to hit the ball. Houston is by far the worst team in all of baseball. The Astros are a ridiculous 9-42 in their last 51 road games. Jordan Lyles starts for Houston, and the Astros are 1-15 in his last 16 road starts. They are 4-24 in his last 28 starts overall. Mike Fiers is really flying under the radar right now. Fiers has a stellar 1.77 ERA in 10 starts this season. Houston's offense is the worst in baseball, and he should shut them down. This one should get ugly early. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
08-01-12 Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins +112 3-2 Loss -100 12 h 25 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins are playing much better baseball of late. In fact, since the beginning of May the Twins have played .500 baseball. They have gotten healthy and guys like Mauer, Willingham, and Morneau are very tough in the middle of the order. Scott Diamond is the Twins best pitcher right now. Diamond is 9-4 with a 2.88 ERA this season. Jake Peavy has a 4.95 ERA in his last 3 starts, and he has been showing some signs of slowing down of late. The Twins are 7-1 in Diamond's last 8 home starts. Take the Twins here.
07-31-12 Tampa Bay: J Shields v. Oakland: T Milone -114 8-0 Loss -114 21 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* Tom Milone has flown under the radar much of this season. It's hard to believe that a guy with an ERA of 0.91 at home could be such a small favorite here. Tampa Bay have struggled against lefties all season, and I expect them to struggle mightily against Milone. James Shields haven't been able to find his 2011 form. Shields is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Rays are 1-4 in Shields' last 5 against Oakland. The A's are 23-5 in their last 28 against a right-handed pitcher. Oakland is 7-1 in Milone's last 8 home starts. Take Oakland.
07-31-12 Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 3-8 Win 100 19 h 3 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Derrick Lowe and Luke Hochevar are both guys who allow a ton of base runners and try to work out of jams. Lowe got away with it earlier in the year, but he has been blasted of late. Lowe has an ERA over 9 in his last 3 starts. Hochevar has an ERA of 5.7 in his home starts this season. The Indians have several guys with great career numbers against Hochevar. The over is 8-1 in Hochevar's last 9 starts against the Indians. The over is 20-5-2 in the last 27 meetings between these two in Kansas City. Take the over.
07-31-12 Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves OVER 8 1-7 Push 0 18 h 0 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Kris Medlen hasn't started a game in a couple years, and he isn't expected to throw more than 75 pitches in this one. The Marlins offense isn't great, but I expect them to put up a few runs here. Ricky Nolasco is a streaky pitcher, and he is pitching terrible of late. The Braves have several guys who have hit him extremely well in the past. Nolasco gave up 6 earned runs in his last start against Atlanta. The Braves offense seems to be coming together right now. I like this play largely because I believe 8 is too low of a number considering the circumstances. Take the over.
07-30-12 Tampa Bay: D Price -116 v. Oakland: A Griffin 3-4 Loss -116 20 h 33 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Oakland Athletics have been playing very good baseball of late, but this is a tough spot for them. They are coming off a long East Coast trip and must come back and face one of the best pitchers in the AL. David Price is really dealing right now. Price is 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA in his last 3 starts. Overall, he has six straight quality starts. A.J. Griffin has been terrific so far this year, but I don't value him quite as highly as Price just yet. Oakland is hitting only .225 this year against left-handed pitchers. Tampa Bay just took 2 of 3 from the Angels in LA. The Rays are 17-4 in Price's last starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Take Tampa Bay here.
07-29-12 Chicago (A): G Floyd v. Texas: S Feldman OVER 10.5 Top 0-2 Loss -108 17 h 27 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* Several key factors come together to make this one a 5 Star Top Play. Gavin Floyd and Scott Feldman have both be extremely inconsistent this season. Both of these guys are fully capable of giving up 7 or 8 runs in one game. The Rangers have the deepest line up in baseball, and the White Sox have been great against right handed pitching all season. A temperature of 102 degrees at game time should really help the ball fly well. Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of my favorite over umpires. The over is 34-16-6 in Holbrook's last 56 games behind home plate. Take the over big.
07-29-12 Cincinnati Reds -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies 7-2 Win 100 14 h 42 m Show
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* Johnathan Sanchez has been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball this year. He had an ERA of 7.76 in his stint with the Royals earlier this year. The Rockies recently traded for him, and he disappointed in his first outing with Colorado. It's hard to imagine a move to Coors Field helping a pitcher like Sanchez. The Reds have won 9 straight games, and the main reason has been their tremendous offense. Everyone has been contributing of late, and I think they can put up a big number here. Take Cincinnati -1.5.
07-29-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves -108 2-6 Win 100 12 h 7 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Roy Halladay has been the best pitcher in baseball past few years, but he isn't healthy right now. Halladay has an ERA over 8 in his last three starts. Atlanta has actually hit Halladay fairly well in the past. Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla, and others have very good numbers against Halladay. The Braves have a lot to play for right now, while the Phillies can just pack it in. Tim Hudson is still a solid starter, and the Braves have a much better bullpen. The Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 games. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last five versus Atlanta. Take the Braves.
07-28-12 Chicago (A): P Humber v. Texas: M Harrison -1.5 5-2 Loss -100 16 h 27 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Chicago White Sox haven't done well against left-handed pitching this year. Matt Harrison has quietly put together an amazing season for the Rangers. Harrison had two terrible starts in the first month of the season, but he hasn't given up more than 4 runs in a single game the rest of the year. Phillip Humber notched a no-hitter this year, but he has a horrible 6.25 ERA overall. Humber has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of his last 10 starts. Texas still has the best lineup in baseball, and they are bound to break out soon. Don't be surprised if it is in this game. This is a mismatch all the way around. Texas is 23-6 in Harrison's last 29 starts as a favorite. Take Texas -1.5.
07-28-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves -116 1-2 Win 100 17 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Atlanta Braves are playing very good baseball right now. They have been a very streaky team this year, but I think they are capable of making a big run. Atlanta's lineup is very deep, and they have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball. Philadelphia has been a major disappointment, and they really don't have much to play for right now. Mike Minor was awful for a long stretch earlier this year, but he has been great in his last 3 starts. The Phillies aren't good against lefties, and I think this is a good matchup for Minor. Joe Blanton has an ERA over 5 in his career against Atlanta. The Phillies are 8-22 in their last 30 against teams with a winning record. Take the Braves here.
07-28-12 Washington Nationals -120 v. Milwaukee Brewers 4-1 Win 100 16 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Jordan Zimmerman is one of the best pitchers in the majors, but he rarely gets talked about. That's ok with me, because he tends to have better value because of his underrated qualities. This is a guy who hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a game all season. He absolutely gives his team a chance to win every single time out. Randy Wolf is far past his prime, and he allows far too many base runners. Wolf has a 5.46 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. The Brewers got rid of Zack Greinke yesterday, and it appears this team has given up on the 2012 season. Washington is tied for the best record in the National League. Washington is 6-0 in Zimmerman's last 6 road starts against a team with a losing record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. The Brewers are 0-4 in Wolf's last 4 against the NL East. Take Washington.
07-27-12 Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins -116 0-11 Win 100 18 h 17 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Cleveland Indians just came off an impressive win over Justin Verlander last night. This is a let down spot like we often see in basketball. Cleveland has been awful against lefties all year. In fact, the team is hitting just .220 against lefties in 2012. Scott Diamond is the best pitcher on the Twins staff right now. He is 8-4 with a 3.16 ERA in his rookie season thus far. The Twins are 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. Josh Tomlin has an ERA above 6 on the road this year. Look for Minnesota to win this one.
07-27-12 Pittsburgh: J Karstens -140 v. Houston: J Lyles Top 6-5 Win 100 18 h 57 m Show
*5 Star MLB Moneyline TOP Play* The Houston Astros have lost ten straight games. Obviously there losing streak has to end somewhere, but the Astros are going to do a lot of losing the rest of this season. Houston has gotten rid of some decent pieces in their firesale of late, and this lineup has virtually nothing left. The bullpen is awful, and the starting pitching isn't much better. At this point, Houston is by far the worst team in the majors. I fully expect opposing teams to be laying -200 or more against Houston very often in the coming months. Pittsburgh still isn't getting enough credit from the oddsmakers. Jeff Karstens is pitching for his spot in the rotation here, and he already shut out the Astros once this month. The Pirates are 4-0 in his last 4 against Houston. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. Houston is 4-23 in Lyles' last 27 starts. They are 0-10 in their last 10 games. Take Pittsburgh big!
07-27-12 Boston: A Cook v. New York (A): P Hughes -1.5 3-10 Win 125 18 h 49 m Show
*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees CASH* Aaron Cook has been a nice little success story for the Red Sox, but I expect him to regress very soon. The Yankees lineup is stacked and I just can't see Cook getting through this lineup without a bunch of damage. Phil Hughes has thrown 4 quality starts in his last 5 starts. Boston misses David Ortiz in a big way. It will be Ichiro's first home game as a member of the Yankees, and I think he'll be a great fit for the team. The Yankees are the better team in every aspect of the game here. Take the Yankees -1.5.
07-26-12 Oakland A's v. Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 9 4-10 Loss -108 10 h 33 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Oakland A's are on an amazing run right now. It's hard to imagine this team going on the run they have with such a poor lineup, but they have done it. Oakland has been dead last in team batting average almost all year. The Athletics do it with terrific starting pitching, relief pitching, and defense. Toronto had one of the best offenses in the game at the beginning of the year, but that has changed. Jose Bautista is out and the lineup isn't the same without him. Escobar may miss this game as well, and J.P. Arencibia fractured his hand in last night's game. The A's won last night 16-0. Oakland doesn't have an explosive offense at all, and I think a day game after a night game is a perfect time to expect them to come back down to earth. Look for some regulars to sit in this one on a get away day. Both Tom Milone and Aaron Laffey have been far better than experts predicted. The under is 5-1 in Milone's last 6 games. Take the under.
07-25-12 Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 4-2 Loss -100 20 h 54 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Jeff Francis is a guy I like to fade when the opportunity presents itself. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been absolutely crushing left-handed pitching this year. Arizona is hitting .274 and average 5.58 runs per game against lefties. Francis isn't an average lefty, he is much worse. Francis didn't even have a major league spot at the beginning of the year, and his ERA consistently ends above 5 every year. The Rockies lineup is severely short-handed right now. Look for Arizona to jump on Francis here. This one should get ugly. Take Arizona -1.5.
07-25-12 Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 6-11 Win 100 14 h 59 m Show
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* The Los Angeles Angels have really hit their stride of late. This is a playoff team and I expect them to continue to play well the rest of the season. Mike Trout makes a tremendous difference at the top of the lineup. Jered Weaver is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now. Weaver is 12-1 with a 2.20 ERA. At home, he is 7-0 with a 0.67 ERA. The Royals start Luke Hochevar, who is wildly inconsistent. He has a a brutal 8.68 ERA during the daytime this year. Don't expect the Royals to get more than a run or two off Weaver, and the Angels should get to Hochevar. Take the Angels -1.5.
07-25-12 Washington Nationals -1.5 v. New York Mets 5-2 Win 104 10 h 28 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Stephen Strasburg is an amazing young pitcher, and the Mets are playing some terrible baseball right now. The Mets are 1-11 in their last 12, and they are basically out of the playoff race after starting the season so well. Washington just keeps on ticking at the top of the NL East. Jeremy Hefner hasn't been successful in the bigs, and the pitching mismatch here is huge. The Nationals are 8-1 in their last 9 at New York. The Mets are 0-8 in their last 8 games against a right-handed pitcher. Look for Strasburg and the Nationals to dominate. Take Washington -1.5.
07-24-12 Kansas City: W Smith v. LA Anaheim: G Richards OVER 9 4-1 Loss -100 20 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Los Angeles Angels offense is really clicking right now. You can't say enough about what Mike Trout has done for this lineup. Trout is a hitting machine, and he does major damage on the bases as well. With Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo both hitting well in the middle of the order, this lineup can pile up the runs quickly. Will Smith doesn't appear to be ready for the majors yet, and the Angels have been very good against lefties. Garrett Richards has been wildly inconsistent this season. The over is 7-1 in the Royals last 8 following a loss. The over is 3-0-1 in Richards' last 4. Take the over.
07-24-12 Atlanta Braves -102 v. Miami Marlins 4-3 Win 100 17 h 40 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* I feel like the Atlanta Braves have the ability to make a run at the NL East. Atlanta has a deep lineup and a very good bullpen. Tim Hudson is 8-4 with a 3.7 ERA in 2012. He has an ERA under 2 on the road this season. The Marlins offense has underperformed all season. Hanley Ramirez is questionable for this game, and the Marlins definitely miss Stanton in the middle of the lineup. The starting pitchers are even in my opinion, but the Braves have the better lineup and the better bullpen. Take Atlanta.
07-24-12 Detroit: D Fister -115 v. Cleveland: U Jimenez 2-3 Loss -115 17 h 50 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The Detroit Tigers are finally playing the way everyone expected them to this season. The trade to bring in Omar Infante should help the offense even more. Ubaldo Jimenez has been awful of late. He has a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. On the other side, Doug Fister has a 2.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. Cleveland's lineup hasn't been hitting the ball very well lately, and I expect them to struggle against Fister. The Tigers' offense is rolling and I don't see that stopping here. Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 as a favorite. The Indians are 1-4 in Jimenez's last 5 starts. Take Detroit.
07-23-12 Kansas City: B Chen v. LA Anaheim: C Wilson -1.5 3-6 Win 105 20 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* C.J. Wilson had a poor outing in his last game. He allowed 7 runs in Detroit. That really was his only very bad start of the year. Wilson has been a tremendous pitcher the last 3 seasons, and I fully expect him to bounce back big in this one. The Royals have struggled against lefties all season. Kansas City is 1-5 in their last 6 against a lefty. The Agnels are 13-3 in their last 16 against a lefty. Bruce Chen has a 7.11 ERA on the road this year. This is a major pitching mismatch. Look for the Angels offense to keep on rolling. Take the Angels -1.5.
07-23-12 Washington Nationals -118 v. New York Mets 8-2 Win 100 18 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Jordan Zimmerman is one of the best pitchers in the majors right now, but he doesn't get the same publicity as many of the other top pitchers in baseball. Zimmerman has nine straight quality starts. He also has allowed only one run in his last 19 innings pitched. Chris Young is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA this year. The Nationals have a terrific bullpen, while the Mets have the worst bullpen in the majors. The Mets are in a free fall right now, and I don't see it stopping in this one. The Mets are 0-7 in their last 7 against a right-handed pitcher. The Mets are 0-4 in Young's last 4 home starts. Take the Nationals.
07-23-12 Baltimore: T Hunter v. Cleveland: J Mastersn OVER 9 1-3 Loss -110 18 h 39 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Tommy Hunter and Justin Masterson have both struggled this season. Hunter has a 5.71 ERA and Masterson has a 4.29 ERA this year. The weather forecast in Cleveland calls for upper 80's and the wind blowing out at 15 to 20 mph on Monday night. Both of these offenses are good against right-handed pitching. The over is 16-7-1 in Hunter's last 24 starts overall. The over is 4-1 in Masterson's last 5 starts against the Orioles. Look for a higher scoring than most expect in this one. I like the value on the over.
07-22-12 Texas: M Harrison -102 v. LA Anaheim: D Haren 4-7 Loss -102 19 h 21 m Show
3 Star Sunday Night Baseball Beatdown* The Texas Rangers have the best offense in baseball. Dan Haren has struggled badly in his last few starts. He is making his first start since coming off the disabled list with a back injury. Texas isn't the type of team you want to go up against when you aren't 100 percent. Matt Harrison had two bad games earlier in the season, but he has quietly been dominating throughout the rest of the season. The Rangers are 17-5 in their last 22 against right handed pitching. The Rangers are 14-2 in Harrison's last 16 Sunday starts. The Angels are 2-8 in Haren's last 10 home starts. Take Texas.
07-22-12 Miami Marlins v. Pittsburgh Pirates -108 0-3 Win 100 13 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The oddsmakers continue to believe that Pittsburgh isn't very good, but the Pirates just keep winning. Jeff Karstens has been solid all season, and the Marlins lineup has been a major disappointment. Without Stanton in the middle of the order, the Marlins don't have a lot of power. Andrew McCutchen is the hottest hitter in all of baseball right now. The Pirates are 22-5 in their last 27 as a favorite. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. I like the value on the Pirates at home. Take Pittsburgh.
07-22-12 Chicago (A): P Humber v. Detroit: J Turner OVER 10 4-6 Push 0 13 h 50 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jacob Turner doesn't appear to be ready for the majors just yet. He has an ERA over 10 so far this season. Turner should end up being a good pitcher over time, but it seems the Tigers are rushing him. The White Sox lineup is very good against right handed pitchers. Phillip Humber pitched a no-hitter earlier this year, but he has been horrible since then. Humber's ERA is 5.77 for the season. The over is 7-0 in Humber's last 7 starts against teams with a winning record. The over is also 7-0 in Humber's last 7 against the AL Central. Take the over.
07-21-12 Seattle Mariners +139 v. Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 Win 139 16 h 29 m Show
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* Jason Vargas is a solid young pitcher for the Mariners. Vargas has had a couple horrible outings this year, but for the most part he's been very good. Tampa Bay's offense is still short handed and the Rays have struggled against lefties all year. Alex Cobb has an ERA of almost 5 this season. He struggles to pitch deep into the game. Both bullpens were used heavily in last night's 14 inning game. I expect Tampa Bay to have to go to a tired bullpen early in this one. The Mariners have been hitting well on the road. I like the value on the underdog. Take Seattle.
07-21-12 Chicago (A): C Sale -114 v. Detroit: R Porcello 1-7 Loss -114 13 h 19 m Show
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* Chris Sale has been amazing in the starting rotation this year. He is 11-2 with a 2.01 ERA. Sale is one of the big reasons the White Sox have lead the AL Central all season. Detroit is making a big push right now, but I think the White Sox have the perfect starter on the hill to win this one. Rick Porcello has been inconsistent all year. Look for the White Sox offense to get to Porcello early in this one. This is too big of a pitching mismatch to overlook. I like the White Sox in a close game. Take Chicago.
07-21-12 Texas: Y Darvish -120 v. LA Anaheim: E Santana 9-2 Win 100 13 h 19 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Yu Darvish has struggled a bit of late, but his struggles have been nothing compared to those of Ervin Santana. Santana has been blasted in his last few starts, and it's hard to imagine him turning it around against the best offense in baseball. Darvish is still a confident pitcher, and I think he has the stuff to strike out a lot of Angels batters. The Angels are making a strong run at the Rangers in the AL West, but I think Darvish will get Texas back on track here. Look for the Rangers to jump on Santana early. Take Texas.
07-21-12 San Francisco: M Cain +122 v. Philadelphia: C Hamels 6-5 Win 122 13 h 19 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Matt Cain is one of baseball's best pitchers. It's hard to find a pitcher who is more consistent than Cain. The Giants' offense isn't great, but it is much better than last season. Cole Hamels has been solid this season, but the Phillies offense will likely struggle against Cain. There are a couple very interesting angles on this game. The Giants are 6-0 in Cain's last 6 starts as an underdog. The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 games against right handed pitchers. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Take the Giants.
07-21-12 Atlanta: B Sheets +108 v. Washington: E Jackson 4-0 Win 108 10 h 20 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Ben Sheets pitched brilliantly in his Braves debut. Sheets was an elite pitcher for the Brewers for several years, and I think he still has very good stuff. Edwin Jackson has an ERA above 10 in his last three starts. Jackson has been a streaky pitcher all throughout his career. When he gets on a bad streak, he is a great pitcher to fade. The Braves offense is definitely more dynamic than the Nationals. This season is a good chance for Atlanta to gain ground on the Nationals in the NL East. The Braves are 12-2 in their last 14 against the NL East. Take Atlanta.
07-20-12 New York (A): I Nova v. Oakland: T Milone UNDER 7.5 2-3 Win 100 21 h 27 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night Total Bailout* Tom Milone has been spectacular at home this season. He has really flown under the radar out in Oakland, but his 1.03 ERA at home is extremely impressive. He pitched well early this year at home against the Yankees. Ivan Nova is 7-0 with an ERA below 3.5 on the road this year. Oakland has the worst team batting average in the majors. Bill Miller is the umpire behind the plate in this one. Miller is one of my favorite under umpires because of his large strike zone. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4. The under is 6-0 in Oakland's last 6 as a home underdog. The under is 4-0 in Milone's last 4 home starts. Take the under.
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