*3 Star MLB Play of Day* I'll start by saying that I don't like to make a habit of taking the under in a game being played at Coors Field. Having said that, I do believe there are plenty of reasons to look at the under here. First, look at the Rockies lineup and how so many of their key players are injured right now. Corey Dickerson is a table setter for this team, and he's one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. Dickerson is unlikely to play here due to a foot injury. Troy Tulowitzki is questionable and he's obviously the main man for this team. Justin Morneau is on the DL with a concussion. Cole Hamels is a very good pitcher, and he'll be dealing with a short-handed roster for Colorado. Jordan Lyles has pitched well at Coors Field this year (2.75 ERA) and his career ERA against the Phillies is 2.74. This Phillies lineup scored 4 runs or less in 8 straight games before breaking out some the last two days. They are awful against right-handed pitching.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Phillies last 4 Monday games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as a favorite. The under is 3-0-2 in Hamels' last 5 starts. The under is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 home games with a total of 9 to 10.5 runs. A 14-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Matt Harvey has some tremendous stuff and he is capable of shutting down any lineup when he is on his game. Harvey toes the rubber tonight against the Cardinals. While St. Louis does have a very good lineup, the Cardinals do not work the count. St. Louis sees the third fewest amount of pitches per at bat of any team in the majors. That means if Harvey is on his game, he could stick around for a long time in this contest. John Lackey has been pretty good this year, and the Mets lineup is a mess right now. The weather is helpful with a cool temperature and a little wind blowing in. A very key part of this bet to me is Bill Miller is the home plate umpire. Miller has been the single best under umpire for me in the past few years. This is a guy that loves to call strikes. Both of these pitchers should be able to take advantage. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* I was burned by the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday, but I'm back on them today. Don Mattingly decided to rest just about everyone on Saturday night and that didn't help things a bit. Colorado is still a bad team with a really bad starting pitcher here and a terrible bullpen. The Dodgers offense has been the best in baseball this year. Expect Gonzalez and Pederson to be back in the lineup on Sunday. Bolsinger has been solid in his first two starts for the Dodgers. Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Morneau are both hurt right now. Kyle Kendrick has a brutal 7.91 ERA in six games at Dodger Stadium in his career. Look for the Dodgers to blow this one wide open. Take Los Angeles -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians have had two very high scoring games on Friday and Saturday. I think there's a good chance this one is high scoring as well. This is a ballpark where the weather matters a lot, and it's warm in Texas this weekend and the wind is whipping which can create a tunnel effect here. The ball was flying out in a big way on Saturday night. Carrasco has had problems with the home run ball in the past. Nick Martinez isn't even close to as good as his ERA would suggest this year. The Cleveland offense is hitting stride in a big way of late also. Neither bullpen is particularly strong. This total is a full run too low.

The over is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 road games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 Sunday games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in the previous game. The over is 5-0 in the Indians last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 4-0 in Carrasco's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in Martinez's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. A 52-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Kyle Gibson has been doing it with smoke and mirrors so far this year. Gibson is stranding 81.4% of his runners this year compared to 66% in 2013 and 66% again in 2014. He is a guy who has a startling 5.31 ERA during day games in his career. Tampa Bay will want to salvage a game here, and Chris Archer is a really nice guy to have on the mound. Archer's peripheral stats are terrific, and this Minnesota Twins lineup isn't as good as they have looked so far this year. I expected to have to pay up more than this for the Rays. Nice value here. Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Edinson Volquez isn't as good as he has pitched so far this year. He's a very inconsistent pitcher, and the Yankees lineup is good at making the opposing pitcher work very hard. Chris Capuano is a subpar lefty, and the Royals are excellent against left-handed pitching. Even without the wind I would have liked this one, but the weather forecast definitely helps here. The wind is expected to be howling out at about 20 miles per hour during this game. Look for plenty of offense here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* Noah Syndergaard is going to be a star. Milwaukee's lineup strikes out quite a bit, and I think that makes for a nice home opener for the rookie. The Mets offense is a mess right now with injuries really taking a toll on this team. They put up 10 runs in a single inning yesterday, but that isn't even close to the norm. In fact, off that kind of a performance, I like their chances of regressing to the mean here. Wily Peralta is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his career against the Mets. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Colorado Rockies start Jorge De La Rosa. He has some splits, because he has actually been better in his career at Coors Field than he has been on the road. He has an ugly 5.89 ERA in his career against the Dodgers. Los Angeles has been the best offense in baseball so far this year. The Dodgers lineup depth is extremely impressive. Everyone in this order is dangerous. Colorado's bullpen was bad to start with, and now they are short-handed with no Adam Ottavino for the rest of the season. The Dodgers bullpen has been tremendous this year. Zack Greinke has been amazing at Dodger Stadium. This one is is a mismatch all around. Take Los Angeles -1.5. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of Week* I still believe the Cleveland Indians are a better team than their record would indicate. Their offense is slowly starting to come around, and they'll have a chance to keep it going in this one against Colby Lewis. Lewis has been alright in his career on the road, but when pitching at home in Texas he gets lit up very often. The Indians have a lot of very good left-handed hitters who should feast on him here. Danny Salazar is a terrific young pitcher who is really coming into his own right now. The Texas Rangers have a history of being a great offensive team, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors against right handed pitching so far this year. I expect this to be a long year for the Rangers, and I'm always looking to fade Lewis at home when the price is right. 

The Indians are 5-0 in Salazar's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They are 0-5 in Lewis' last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-5 in Lewis' last 5 Saturday starts. The Indians are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Texas. A 23-0 angle. Take the Indians big! 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Philadelphia Phillies have the worst offense in the majors. While they have been alright against lefties, they have been terrible against right-handed pitching. They have an on base percentage of just .269 and average only 2.79 runs per game against right handed pitching. Archie Bradley has been one of the best pitching prospects in the minors the last few years. He looked great earlier this year, and he gets to come back from an injury against the perfect lineup to get healthy against. Jerome Williams is a far below average pitcher at this point in his career. The Diamondbacks don't have a great lineup, but it's definitely better than the Phillies lineup. Short price here. Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Chicago White Sox start rookie sensation Carlos Rodon here. Rodon will likely have some growing pains this year at times, but he is going to be tremendous. He is in a good spot here. The A's have a drastic split vs. righties and lefties this year. Oakland ranks third in the majors with a .332 on base percentage against righties this year. They rank 29th out of 30 teams with a .247 on base percentage against lefties. Jesse Hahn is a mediocre starter, but he struggles to pitch deep into the game. The A's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. Chicago's bullpen is much improved. At this price, I really like the value on the road team. Oakland is 7-23 in their last 30 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees offense hasn't been hitting the ball the last couple days, but this is a lineup that has a chance to get going against Chris Young. Young is a guy I'll look to fade when given the opportunity moving forward. His ERA is ridiculously low, but history suggests he won't continue to pitch like this consistently. Michael Pineda is absolutely dealing, and now we are seeing why he was such a prized prospect a few years ago. The Royals generally have a big bullpen advantage and a lineup advantage. That isn't the case here. The Yankees have a huge starting pitching edge. I'll side with the road team. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bruce Chen and Wandy Rodriguez square off here. It's a battle of two left-handers that are well past their prime. This is a game I had circled as soon as I saw these two were both on the mound here. Both of these guys can get lit up in a big way, and 9 runs with plus money is a nice value here. Texas is terrible against right-handed pitching, but their lineup is very good against lefties. Bruce Chen is one of the worst lefties in the majors. Wandy Rodriguez isn't a good fit for the BallPark in Arlington, and the Indians offense has been getting healthy and coming together of late. Neither bullpen is particularly strong and these starters aren't likely to go deep into the game.

The over is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road dog of +110 to +150. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rangers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. A 28-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Baltimore Orioles rank second in the majors in on base percentage against right handed pitching. Jered Weaver pitched a gem in his last outing, but I'm not buying any stock in him. Weaver's velocity is way down and it's really hard to get big league batters out throwing 84 miles per hour fastballs on a consistent basis. Weaver has a 7.09 ERA in 5 starts at Baltimore. Wei Yin Chen has been very fortunate this year with batted balls in play luck as well as stranding a lot of runners on base. That won't continue forever, and the Angels have a lot of guys who are great at hitting left handed pitching. The weather looks good here with winds of 10 to 15 mph blowing out at gametime. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Red Sox starting rotation has been terrible this year. Joe Kelly was actually one of the bright spots early in the year until his control totally left him in his last couple starts. Boston's bullpen's peripheral numbers suggest they are one of the worst in the majors. Seattle's bullpen started slowly, but they are a top five bullpen and they are throwing it really well right now. Boston is far better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching. As a team, Boston is hitting .240 against righties and just .187 against lefties. None of the Red Sox players have seen Roenis Elias before. The Mariners are still a quality team, and at this price at home, I'm backing them. The Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 following a win. They are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. the Mariners. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Kansas City Royals have dropped two of the first three in this series. There's no doubt that Kansas City is the much better team, and I see them working hard to get a split against a Rangers team that is likely going to finish with a really bad record this year. Jeremy Guthrie isn't a guy I like to back very often, but he has solid numbers against Texas. The real reason for this play though isn't Guthrie, but the rest of the advantages for Kansas City. The Royals are second in the majors in on base percentage against lefties, and they face a weak lefty in Ross Detwiler here. Kansas City also has the top bullpen in baseball, while the Rangers bullpen isn't any good. The price here is too good to pass up.

The Royals are 5-0 in Guthrie's last 5 road starts. They are 7-0 in his last 7 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set at 9 runs or higher. They are 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL West. They are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 26-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers have been awful against left-handed pitching this year. They are hitting less than .200 as a team against lefties on the season. Jose Quintana is an underrated lefty. Quintana has pitched much better in his last few starts after a poor start to the season. Jimmy Nelson has been great in his 22 innings this year at Miller Park. He has an ERA just over 2 at home this year. Both of these starters have done a good job working deep into the game this year. The under is 34-16-3 in Quintana's last 53 starts overall. The under is 20-4-2 in his last 26 starts vs.a team with a losing record. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the ball much better at home than on the road this year. Their amazing under streak while they were on the road recently has lowered their totals all around, and I see some value on the over in this one. With Adam Warren and Nate Karns as the two starting pitchers here, we have two guys who walk a lot of batters and pitch themselves into some tough situations. The ball has been flying really well in Tampa Bay this year, and the Yankees offense is one of the best in the majors. Karns' command is a major problem against a team like the Yankees. 

The over is 5-0 in Karns' last 5 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 5-0 in Karns' last 5 home starts. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 between these two in Tampa Bay. A 14-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* I like to fade Eric Stults whenever I get the right price. This one was close to a play last night, but at -137, it was a little too expensive. It has fallen into range for me now. The Cincinnati Reds have a really big advantage offensively here. Cincinnati's offense hasn't clicked yet this year, but they will score plenty of runs this season. The Braves have one of the worst lineups in the league and they also have a bad defense. Stults is a pitch to contact type of guy, and this defense behind him hurts. Iglesias has terrific stuff, and he could end up being a number two or three starter in the future. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Baltimore Orioles rank second in the majors in hitting against right handed pitching. Toronto is first against lefties, but only 8th against right handed pitchers. They'll be up against Miguel Gonzalez in this one. Gonzalez has been amazing against the Jays in the last two years. Gonzalez has a 1.94 ERA in his last 8 starts against Toronto. Aaron Sanchez pitched better in his last game, but he has had major control issues all year, and that's a real concern against an Orioles team that can make him pay for mistakes. The Orioles hit him hard earlier this year. I still believe Baltimore has a pretty good team, and at this short price at home I'm backing them. They are 22-10 in Gonzalez's last 32 home starts. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the best offensive team in the majors so far this year. As a team, the Dodgers have a great .368 on base percentage, and they face a guy who lets a lot of guys on base on Tuesday night. Dan Haren has been getting away with it this year, but it isn't going to last forever. Haren is stranding 90% of runners on base, and the major league average is in the mid 70's. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of just .194 against Haren. That is just silly low. The major league average is right around .300. Basically, Dan Haren is going to come back down to earth, and it's only a matter of time. Mike Bolsinger has been great in the minors, and the Dodgers have a definite edge in the bullpen here. Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oakland Athletics have been an over machine at home this year. The over is 13-1 in their 14 home games this year. Oakland's offense has been much better than expected once again this year, but their pitching staff has been absolutely awful. The starting rotation is having some problems, and the bullpen ranks second worst in the majors. Boston's bullpen has some really ugly peripheral numbers too. Boston's offense is good, and they are better now with Victorino back in the lineup. Drew Pomeranz has struggled in a big way of late, and he rarely gets past the fifth inning. The longer the A's bullpen is around, the better are chances are here. 

The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. the AL West. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 8-0 in their last vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The over is 9-0 in the Athletics last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Pomeranz's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 following a team loss. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 games when the A's allow 5 runs or more last game. A 51-0 angle. 

*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* Chris Sale is far better than his ERA would suggest. I actually like Mike Fiers, but there is no doubt that Sale is the better pitcher here. Sale is going to bounce back from his slow start. It's only a matter of time. The White Sox bullpen is one of the most improved in the majors. It's also notable that the Brewers rank 28th in the majors in on base percentage against lefties, and they'll face an elite one here in Sale. The price here is a strange one. Fiers has been popular with the oddsmakers of late, but the Brewers are at a significant disadvantage in this game. I'll take the cheap price on the road team. Take the White Sox. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Kansas City Royals let me down last night in their loss against Texas, but I'm going with Kansas City again on Tuesday. The Royals have a lineup that doesn't strike out very often, and that makes them a tough matchup for Nick Martinez. Martinez is due for some serious regression, and I think it's coming sooner rather than later. Edinson Volquez isn't a guy I like to back very often, but at this price I have no choice. Volquez will be against his former team here, and the Rangers have been fine against lefties this year, but they have been awful against right-handed pitching. This line is far too cheap on the Royals, and they have some significant advantages all over the place here. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB Total Value* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been a disappointment so far this year. I'm confident that the Reds will get it going offensively, and this is a good opportunity for them. Cincinnati gets to go up against Mike Foltynewicz in this one. He has been very shaky in his first two career starts. He is walking more than 5 batters per nine innings right now. That isn't something he'll get away with for long. Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire in this one, and he has one of the smallest strike zones in the majors. Anthony Desclafani has been walking people in a big way lately too, so I expect to see plenty of free passes in this game. Both bullpens are really bad, especially Cincinnati's, so this over is more than reachable. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play MLB Total DOMINATION* The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays both have tremendous offenses. This total came out at 8.5, which is definitely lower than it should have opened. I expect this line to move up to 9 before the first pitch. Chris Tillman is having a lot of mechanical issues of late, and Mark Buerhle has had a really bad season thus far. Both of these guys allow a lot of base runners, and their should be a bunch of scoring opportunities for both teams. Tillman has a 5.12 ERA in 16 career starts vs. Toronto. Buehrle isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago.

The over is 5-0 in Buehrle's last 5 Tuesday starts. The over is 4-0 in Buehrle's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 4-1 in Buehrle's last 5 starts vs. Baltimore. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals have the best bullpen in the majors. This bullpen was tremendous last year, and they have been great again this year. They also have one of the very best defenses in the majors. These are two factors that are often overlooked by bettors, but they shouldn't be. Kansas City has a starting pitching edge here with Duffy vs. Colby Lewis too. Lewis has been terrible throughout his career when pitching in Texas. This park doesn't suit his pitching style well. We get a cheaper price here because of some recent success by Lewis on the road. Kansas City is too cheap here on the moneyline.

The Royals are 9-0 in Duffy's last 9 starts during game one of a series. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a start where he lasted less than 4 innings. They are 5-0 in his last 5 Monday starts. The Rangers are 0-4 in Lewis' last 4 starts vs. the Royals. A 23-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland Athletics are 1-11 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starting pitcher. Oakland is averaging 2 runs per game less vs. left-handed pitching this year compared to right handed pitching. They rank 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching. J.A. Happ is a middle of the road lefty who has pitched well in all but one of his starts this year. Happ should be helped a lot by Safeco and the large outfield. Jesse Hahn is a decent young pitcher for the A's, but he very often struggles to get past the fifth or sixth inning. Oakland's bullpen ranks 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in ERA and Seattle's is 21st right now, but I believe they will finish as a top ten bullpen in the majors. Oakland is without Zobrist now as well. Seattle hasn't played well this year, but this is too cheap on them. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on Saturday night. The ball was flying out of Chase Field in bunches on Friday night with the roof open and the wind blowing out. The conditions aren't quite as favorable here, but they are still favorable for an over. Tyson Ross hasn't been good in his outings at Chase Field in his career. He's a pitcher that has some drastic home/road splits. Chase Anderson has an ERA a full run higher with the roof open at home than with it closed. Both of these offenses can score and this total is set quite low. 

The over is 5-0-1 in the Diamondbacks last 6 home games. The over is 7-1-1 in the Padres last 9 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 Saturday starts. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams on Saturday. A 22-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Yankees are number two in the majors in hitting left-handed pitching. Wei-Yin Chen is very hittable, and his stats so far this year are misleading. Chen has stranded a bunch of runners and balls in play have ended in outs a much larger percentage of the time than can be expected going forward. While Chase Whitley isn't a terrific pitcher, I do believe he is better than most people give him credit for being. The Orioles offense is good, but it isn't as good as the Yankees offense. The Yankees biggest edge comes in the bullpen, where the Yankees have been tremendous this year. 

The Orioles are 0-7 in their last 7 road games. They are 0-6 in their last 6 as a road underdog. They are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. They are 0-5 in Chen's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog. The Yankees are 4-0 in Whitley's last 4 starts as a favorite. A 33-0 angle. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Sonny Gray has owned the Seattle Mariners in his short career. Gray has a 2.21 ERA in 8 career starts vs. them. Even more impressive, he has a 0.98 ERA at Safeco Field. Taijuan Walker is out of sorts in a big way right now, and the A's bats have been a big surprise this year. The huge pitching advantage goes to the A's here. Oakland is 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts in Seattle. At this price, I like the road team. Take Oakland. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Houston Astros came back to beat the Los Angeles Angels in dramatic fashion last night. The Angels offense has underachieved in a big way so far this year. Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun are hitting, but guys like Pujols, Freese, Ianetta, and others have been bad. Roberto Hernandez is near the end of his career, and he doesn't have very good stuff. I think he gives the Angels a good chance to break out of their slump. Jered Weaver's velocity problems have gotten severe. Weaver is throwing 82 mph fastballs to big league hitters, and those usually don't work out well for the pitcher. Weaver's long-term stats vs. the Astros are good, but most of those came when he was a dominant pitcher a few years ago. Things are very different now.

The over is 7-0 in Houston's last 7 vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a road underdog. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 overall vs. a righty. The over is 4-0-1 in Weaver's last 5 starts when the opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TGIF TOP Play CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks piled up 11 runs on 17 hits in Thursday night's win over San Diego. The Padres couldn't score a run, and they only tallied three hits. The conditions at Chase Field were very favorable for hitters on Thursday night with the wind blowing out in a big way. The same is expected on Friday night. Chase Field is a bigtime hitters park with the roof open, and with this low of a total I'm always going to take a peak at the over. I like this one more because both teams have awful bullpens and starters who at least have question marks. James Shields is a solid pitcher, but he has been known to give up too many home runs. Jeremy Hellickson is a bad fit for Chase Field with the roof open. He has struggled badly in his home starts thus far. The Padres offense should bounce back nicely here.

The over is 6-1-1 in the Padres last 8 road games with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0-1 in the Diamondbacks last 5 home games. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 games between these two in Arizona. The over is 3-0-1 in Jim Joyce's last 4 Friday games behind the plate. A 20-1 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* The Cleveland Indians offense is rolling right now, and facing Mike Pelfrey won't hurt that. Pelfrey isn't even close to as good as he has looked in the early going this year. Trevor Bauer is a pretty good pitcher, but I've liked the way the Twins bats have been swinging it lately. The weather is really warm in Cleveland for this time of the year, and the ball will carry really well on Friday night. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Matt Harvey vs. Cole Hamels on national television on Friday night. I think this has all the makings of a very low scoring game. Harvey has an ERA barely above 1 in his career against the Phillies. This year's Phillies team is dead last in the majors in on base percentage against right handed pitching. They are averaging only 2.6 runs per game against right-handers, and obviously Matt Harvey is no average right handed starter. The Mets bullpen has been terrific this year, and it's one of the reasons this team is where they are right now. Cole Hamels has been up and down this year, but he typically rises to the occasion in a big pitching matchup like this one. Hamels should be highly motivated, and he won't have to face David Wright (who has hit him really well over the years) here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* Michael Wacha has a 1.31 career ERA vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates offense is struggling in a big way right now, and I don't see them breaking out against Wacha. Francisco Liriano has a 1.86 ERA in 9 career starts vs. the Cardinals. St. Louis is sitting out a couple key bats tonight. The price has gotten to a point where I can't pass up the under here. This one should be a nice pitcher's duel. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* When I handicap a game I go very in depth. This game is one that stood out to me for a unique reason when I was looking at this week's schedule. The Miami Marlins have played 28 games this year. Zero of their games have been outside the Eastern time zone. Now, they have to jump all the way to the West coast to take on the San Francisco Giants in a nightcap on Thursday night. The body's circadian rhythm is something that can't be ignored, and the Marlins aren't likely to be getting a good night's rest or have their body clock set well for this game. The Giants have been at home and have been playing very good baseball of late. I was hoping for a cheaper line here, so I've limited this to a three star play, but I like the situation. Dan Haren has been incredibly lucky this year on batted balls in play, and that can't continue forever.

The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. They are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. San Francisco is 4-0 in Tim Hudson's last 4 starts vs. the NL East. A 15-0 angle. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense is slumping in a major way right now. Anthony Desclafani is a talented young pitcher who has looked pretty solid this year, and I don't see him being an easy guy to get it going against. A.J. Burnett has a 2.5 ERA in his last 10 starts vs. the Reds. Cincinnati may be without Joey Votto after he got into a lot of trouble last night by making contact with an umpire. PNC Park is clearly a pitcher's park and I see these two pitchers being guys who can utilize this spacious setup.

The under is 5-0-1 in the Reds last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 3-0-2 in Desclafani's last 5 starts. The under is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0 in his last 3 starts vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0-1 in Burnett's last 6 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on grass. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Detroit Tigers are a better team than the Chicago White Sox, and we're getting them at plus money. Chicago was able to complete a huge comeback last night and win in dramatic fashion over Detroit, but I don't see carry through here. Lobstein has been solid for Detroit this year, and he faces a White Sox team that is hitting .196 against left-handed pitching this year. Detroit is one of the best in the majors at hitting lefties. Yoenis Cespedes has 4 homers in 8 at bats against Jose Quintana, and the Tigers have three other regulars (Martinez, Cabrera, and Davis) who have an on base percentage of at least .400 off him. Too good of a price here. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs have scored a bunch of runs in this series, but I think there will be a lot less scoring in this series finale on Thursday afternoon. Jake Arrieta has been great since joining the Chicago Cubs, and he has pitched brilliantly against the Cardinals. Arrieta has a 0.74 ERA in six starts against the Cardinals. John Lackey is often underrated by the oddsmakers, and he's been very good when pitching at Busch Stadium. This being a get away day game means we could easily have some of the better hitters out of the lineup for a day off. 

The under is 4-0 in Arrieta's last 4 starts on grass. The under is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-2 in his last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the NL Central. The under is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 games as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts overall. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago Cubs send Jon Lester to the mound here. He pitched into a lot of bad luck early this year. Opponents had a batted balls in play average of almost .400 against Lester in his first three starts which is way too high. He looked great in his last outing, and the Cardinals aren't very good against lefties. In fact, they are in the bottom five in baseball in on base percentage against left-handers. Lance Lynn is an underrated pitcher, and he's been superb throughout his career at home. He should take advantage of this free swinging Cubs lineup here. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have a good lineup, but they aren't swinging the bats very well right now. Hanley Ramirez is arguably their best hitter, and he'll likely miss this game with an injury again. Alex Colome is a terrific young pitcher for the Rays. In his young career, he has an ERA of just a little above 1 on the road. This will obviously go up over time, but Colome has proven he isn't scared of pitching away from home. Justin Masterson pitches into trouble a lot, but the Rays offense is scuffling right now. Tampa Bay has one of the weakest lineups in the majors.  Masterson does a nice job working out of jams. The Red Sox bullpen has been great. 

The under is 4-0 in Tampa Bay's last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 as a road underdog. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in Colome's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in Masterson's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts against a team with a winning record. A 70-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The New York Yankees have had Mark Buehrle's number over the years. Buehrle was a good pitcher for many years, but at this point in his career I don't think he is a quality starter. He is 36 years old and his stuff is getting worse and worse. Even when he had good stuff, the Yankees got to him consistently. I have no reason to trust him here. New York ranks third in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching. The Yankees also have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Toronto's bullpen isn't good at all. The Blue Jays lineup isn't as good as the Yankees right now since Reyes is out with an injury. At even money, the Yankees are a great value. 

The Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a lefty. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Blue Jays are 1-8 in Buehrle's last 9 starts vs. the Yankees. A 17-1 angle. Take the Yankees. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of Week* We have a really nice setup for the over here. Mark Buehrle has been absolutely torched by the New York Yankees in his career. His ERA against the Yankees in his career is 6.21 (in 21 starts). Last year, he had an ERA of 6.83 against the Yankees. Also remember, Buehrle is near the end of his career, and he doesn't have the same quality stuff he used to have. C.C. Sabathia is very hittable at this point as well, and Toronto ranks first in the majors in on base percentage against left handed starters. There should be a bunch of base runners in this game. It's also a big boost to this one that we get Toby Basner behind the dish. The over is 21-7-2 in Basner's last 30 games behind home plate. I see a possibility of a very high scoring game here, and with the total at just 8.5, this is a strong play for me. 

The over is 5-0 in Buehrle's last 5 starts vs. the Yankees. The over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 starts vs. the Blue Jays. The over is 10-1 in the Yankees last 11 during game three of a series. The over is 9-1 in Buehrle's last 10 home starts. A 28-2 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst lineups in the American League. The Boston Red Sox have a really strong bullpen. Tampa Bay's bullpen has been throwing the ball really well of late. Boston will probably be without Hanley Ramirez in this one. The Red Sox are hitting just .199 so far this year against lefties and Ramirez is great against lefties. Drew Smyly has been a pretty decent lefty the last few years. Rick Porcello looked much better in his last outing, and the Rays offense isn't very deep. We also draw a very favorable umpire behind the plate here in Brian Gorman. He has one of the biggest strike zones in the majors. 

The under is 8-0 in Tampa Bay's last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on grass. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 as a road underdog. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a righty. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in Smyly's last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on grass. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 53-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Baltimore Orioles have one of the top five offenses in the majors. Bartolo Colon is still a pretty good pitcher, but he's almost 42 years old, and he's no longer dominant. Colon has been hittable of late when pitching at Citi Field, and the Orioles lineup is no walk in the park. The Mets offense isn't particularly good, but Bud Norris is really inconsistent, and he's the type of guy that could give up 6 or 8 runs in a start. The Mets have typically given Bartolo Colon tremendous run support in the past. This total is set too low at only 7 runs. 

The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 interleague games as an underdog of +101 to +150. The over is 4-0 in Norris' last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0-1 in the Mets last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games. The over is 12-0 in Colon's last 12 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 following a team loss. A 43-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* I knew the Houston Astros would be a much better team this year than they have been in the past few years, but I had no idea they would be playing the type of baseball they are right now. They are trying to run away with the AL West right now. One of the biggest reasons why is their pitching staff. This young staff has some guys who are overachieving, but I don't think Dallas Keuchel is one of them. Keuchel has reinvented himself and he does a great job keeping the ball on the ground. Texas' lineup is far weaker now than it has been in the past. The Rangers aren't built for slugfests anymore. Ross Detwiler has an ERA above 8 this year, and he shows no signs of improving. Houston has several guys who hit lefties very well. The Astros bullpen is much better than the Rangers bullpen. The oddsmakers are still a bit slow to believe in Keuchel and the Astros. The Astros have won 10 straight, and they are 11-1 in Keuchel's last 12 starts. The Rangers are 0-4 in Detwiler's last 4 starts. Take Houston -1.5

*3 Star MLB Big Dog* The Milwaukee Brewers aren't a particularly good team, but they aren't as awful as their record either. Carlos Gomez is back in the lineup and Aramis Ramirez is listed as probable for Sunday. Gomez is a huge spark for this lineup offensively and he's awesome defensively. The Chicago Cubs are better this year, but they aren't good enough to be laying -160 with Jason Hammel on the mound. In baseball, sometimes you simply have to bet a price, and that's what I'm doing in this one. Jimmy Nelson has a lot of upside potential and at this price I'm taking Milwaukee here. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Detroit Tigers have a clear pitching advantage here. Anibal Sanchez has proven how good he can be for a very long time. Sanchez has been amazing against the Royals in his career. In 7 career starts vs. the Royals, Sanchez has a 1.07 ERA. On the other side, Jeremy Guthrie starts for the Royals. He has a 4.63 career ERA vs. the Tigers and had a 7.71 ERA vs. Detroit last year. Detroit's offense is one of the best in the majors, and Guthrie's stuff isn't good enough to consistently quiet this lineup. Guthrie has never been particularly good, and his stuff is slowly getting worse over the years. This is the rubber game of this series, and Detroit is a great price here. Take the Tigers. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* John Danks has been absolutely blasted by the Minnesota Twins on a consistent basis throughout his career. How bad has it been? Danks has a 5.59 ERA in 27 career starts against Minnesota. At Target Field, his ERA is a ridiculous 7.74 in eight starts. Mike Pelfrey has been getting fortunate this year and stranding a ton of runners on base. That can't continue constantly, and his career ERA at Target Field is 5.85. Both of these teams are bad defensively, and that could be an extra boost to this total. Look for a bunch of scoring opportunities here. As long as they cash in at a decent rate, I think this one gets past the posted total. I see 10 runs or more here.

The over is 7-0 in Danks' last 7 road starts in Minnesota. The over is 5-0-1 in Danks' last 6 Sunday games. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Wei-Yin Chen has a terrific ERA so far this year. It isn't going to continue all year long. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play so far this year against him of just .177. That's just ridiculously low, and it can't continue. Tampa Bay hits lefties better than righties. Nate Karns looks a bit overmatched right now, and the Orioles ranks third in the majors in on base percentage against right handed pitching. The first time these two pitchers squared off in Tampa Bay the final was 5-4, and I expect something very similar here. A total of 7.5 is just too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Cleveland Indians haven't been good to me so far this year, but I still think they are a much better team than their record would indicate. Cleveland is slowly getting healthy, and as they do it should start to show up in the win/loss column. Drew Hutchison has a 5.15 ERA on the road in his career, and Trevor Bauer has had a terrific year this year. Toronto's offense isn't the same without a healthy Jose Reyes at the top of the order. Ryan Goins is his replacement, and that's a big downgrade. Bauer is a better pitcher than Hutchison and the Indians bullpen is slightly better than the Jays pen. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners offense has been struggling of late. Seattle's bullpen, which started the year surprisingly in terrible form, has gotten back to their dominating form of late. Houston has one of the top five ranked bullpens in the majors right now, and that's one of the big reasons this team is so much improved from last year. Collin McHugh has been tremendous for the Astros too, and his command has been excellent all year. Taijuan Walker started the year with a couple really bad outings, but he has bounced back to pitch well in his last two games (one against Houston where he only allowed one run). Ron Kulpa is behind the dish here, and he's among the best under umpires.

The under is 6-0 in the Mariners last 6 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Walker's last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0-1 in Houston's last 6 home games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 48-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Washington Nationals are far better than they have played so far this year. The New York Mets aren't as good as they have played this year. It will really surprise if the Nationals don't win the NL East. It likely won't end up being very close. The Mets definitely miss David Wright, and that is especially true when they face a good left-handed starter like Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a dazzling 1.88 ERA at Citi Field in his career. Wright is terrific against lefties, and this Mets lineup as a whole has quite a few guys in it who struggle against lefties. Washington is much better offensively against left-handed pitching.

Jon Niese is a decent pitcher, but I don't rate him as high as Gonzalez. The Nationals definitely have a bullpen advantage here too. Washington is 21-10 in their last 31 vs. a lefty. They are 6-1 in Gonzalez's last 7 road starts at Citi Field. The Mets are 0-4 in Niese's last 4 vs. Washington. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Toronto Blue Jays have a good lineup, but it isn't as good as usual right now. Jose Reyes is out of the lineup with an injury and the Blue Jays have no depth behind him. This ends up meaning that the top of the Blue Jays order is very good, but from #5 through #9 this lineup is really weak now. Devon Travis has had a great start to the year, but he's questionable for this one with an injury too. Corey Kluber has had some bad luck in his first few starts this year. His peripherals suggest it's only a matter of time until he starts putting up impressive numbers again. Aaron Sanchez has been bad this year, and he looks like a guy who should be in the bullpen. Cleveland has a much deeper lineup. Sanchez has trouble going late into the game, and the Blue Jays bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. The moneyline is expensive here, so I'll take the run line. Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres are no longer the amazing under team that they have been in the past. San Diego went out and made their offense a whole lot better in the offseason. The other thing they did was make their defense a lot worse. This defense will make a lot of errors this year, and that can really boost the scoring. Colorado starts Eddie Butler here, and he isn't a good starter. He has had some tremendous luck early in the year, and I expect to see him get hit hard soon. Ian Kennedy looked terrible in his season debut against the Dodgers, and I'm not sure he's 100 percent healthy yet. The Rockies bullpen is weak to start with and they are without Adam Ottavino, their closer, for at least the next 15 days. Too low of a total with these two offenses. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Night MONEY* The Cincinnati Reds are .500 on the year. Atlanta is 10-12 after starting the year red hot. The Braves aren't a good team, and I expect it to be a really long year for the Braves. The strength of this Atlanta team in the past was their bullpen, but they rank 28th out of 30 teams in bullpen ERA right now. That's important in this one because Mike Foltynewicz will make the first start of his big league career for Atlanta here. He has been a reliever much of his career, and he likely won't pitch deep into the game. Anthony DeSclafani has been really good so far this year. He has quality stuff and he faces a weak lineup here. There's no doubt the Reds have the much better lineup, and I give them the pitching edge here too. Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Yankees/Red Sox CASH* The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have tremendous lineups. Boston's lineup is a little bit deeper, but there is a lot of star power on both of these teams. Justin Masterson has 4.69 ERA in his career at Fenway, so he can't be too happy to be pitching there against a strong lineup. C.C. Sabathia has been inconsistent this year, and his career ERA at Fenway is a lofty 5.30 in 14 starts. Both of these lineups are more than capable of putting together big innings. 

The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The over is 10-1 in the Yankees last 15 following a loss. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Seattle Mariners have King Felix on the mound here. Felix has had some trouble with Texas in the past, which is likely the reason the line is a bit cheaper than you would expect here. Having said that, Hernandez was great against Texas last year, and he shut them down earlier this year too. This Texas lineup isn't as good as they were a couple years ago, and the Mariners offense has been upgraded in a big way with Cano and Cruz in the middle of the order. As much as I like Hernandez, I really don't like Wandy Rodriguez. Rodriguez isn't a good pitcher, and he wriggled his way out of trouble several times in his last outing. I don't expect him to have success in Texas, and I'll keep fading him. Take Seattle -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a really good team, and they've been beaten soundly by the Chicago Cubs in the first two games of this series. I expect to see the Pirates show resilience in this one. Gerrit Cole is on the mound, and he's one of the best young arms in baseball. Cole is a guy I'm very high on because of his electric stuff as well as his ability to pitch deep into the game. The Cubs offense has a lot of free swingers, and I think Cole will take advantage of that here. The Pirates are 24-9 in Cole's last 33 starts. The Pirates are a perfect 5-0 in Cole's last 5 starts vs. the Cubs. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers have given us too generous of a price on the Toronto Blue Jays here. Toronto has a tremendous lineup, and this Blue Jays team is going to score a lot of runs this year. Boston also has a very good lineup, but Rick Porcello has been struggling with his command so far this year. R.A. Dickey has gotten off to a slow start, but he typically warms up a bit after his first few starts. Also, Dickey had a 2.23 ERA in five starts against Boston last year. Porcello is a streaky pitcher, and when he has been throwing it poorly, I like to look for spots to go against him. Toronto has proven they can win at Fenway. The Blue Jays are 8-3 in their last 11 games at Fenway. Toronto is 4-1 in Dickey's last 5 starts at Fenway. Take Toronto. 

*4 Star MLB Giants/Dogers Totals CASH* It's Clayton Kershaw against Madison Bumgarner here. This is must see television for baseball fans. Kershaw and Bumgarner are two of the best, and both of them have had great success against their rivals. The stats really are eye-popping for this one. In 195 innings in his career, Kershaw has a ridiculous 1.48 ERA against the Giants. Bumgarner has a 2.19 ERA when pitching at Dodger Stadium. Another important point here is Gary Cedarstrom behind home plate. Kershaw has a dazzling 0.52 ERA in 5 career starts with him as home plate umpire. Bumgarner has a nice 2.45 ERA with him as the home plate umpire.

The under is 8-2-1 in Bumgarner's last 11 starts vs. the Dodgers. The under is 18-6-2 in Kershaw's last 26 starts vs. the Giants. I don't like taking unders this low, but there's a good reason for this total to be low. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night Moneyline Play* I typically don't lay this big of a price, but I think it's justified here. My cut off line is -150, and this one has dipped below that price. I considered taking the run line here, but there are a ton of very low scoring games played at Petco Park, and having -1.5 is a scary thing when so many games finish with the home team winning by a single run. Tyson Ross has been amazing when pitching at Petco Park in his career. In 160 innings, he has a 2.03 ERA. The Astros hitters swing and miss a lot, and Ross definitely has the stuff to rack up the strikeouts tonight. Roberto Hernandez isn't a good pitcher, and while the Astros are certainly better than last year, they aren't as good as they have played thus far. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst team in the National League. A quick look at their lineup tells you this team is in some serious trouble. Outside of Chase Utley, there isn't another high quality hitter here. Severino Gonzalez makes his Major League debut here for the Phillies. Gonzalez is a decent prospect, but he'll take time to develop. He's had trouble with the long ball in Triple A, and this Cardinals lineup is a good one. This is no easy first start for Gonzalez. The Phillies bullpen isn't good. St. Louis has the third ranked bullpen so far this year, and Michael Wacha starts here. Wacha has a career 2.24 ERA at home. Mismatch all the way. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* The Detroit Tigers may have the best lineup in baseball. Who would want to face the likes of Cabrera, Martinez, Martinez, and Cespedes right in a row? Mike Pelfrey isn't the type of guy that shuts this lineup down very often at all. Pelfrey has a nice ERA this year, but he has done it with smoke and mirrors. Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all. The opposition hasn't been able to take advantage of run scoring chances against Pelfrey so far this year, but Detroit is very good when hitting with runners in scoring position. Anibal Sanchez has a career ERA of 2.30 against the Twins. This price has dropped to the point that it has become a nice value play. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians have played bad baseball so far this year, but it is still early in the year, and I still think this is a pretty good team. Kansas City is playing a little above their heads right now. Jeremy Guthrie starts in this one, and that's a good reason to go against them. Guthrie hasn't been very good in the past couple years, and he has been worse this year. Guthrie has a career ERA of 6.06 (68 and 1/3 innings) against the Indians. At Cleveland, his ERA is 6.82. Trevor Bauer has dynamic stuff, and he gives the Indians a huge pitching advantage here. Because of their poor play early in the year, the price here is too cheap. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense was terrible in their three game series at home against Pittsburgh. The Pirates do have the best team ERA in the majors though. Arizona should be glad to see Colorado coming to town for a series. This Rockies pitching staff is one of the worst in the majors. Tyler Matzek has been ridiculously lucky this year on batted balls in play. That luck isn't going to continue forever. Chase Anderson is a decent pitcher, but his ERA with the roof open is more than a run higher than with it closed. Chase Field's roof will be open tonight, and I think there will be a lot of scoring. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* I'm convinced that the Pittsburgh Pirates are a better team than the Chicago Cubs. Chicago has clearly gotten more fanfare because of their big improvement from last year and the obvious media attention that always surrounds Wrigley Field, but Pittsburgh has a very solid team. The Pirates lost three straight to start the season in Cincinnati, but they are 11-5 in their last 16 games. Pittsburgh has a much better lineup surrounding Andrew McCutchen this year, and that is a big key. Vance Worley isn't a star, but he isn't a bad pitcher either. Jason Hammel has struggled against the Pirates in his career. I think Pittsburgh should be a small favorite here.

The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. They are 7-0 in Worley's last 7 starts when their opponent has scored 5 runs or more in their last game. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games at Wrigley Field. A 21-0 angle. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals are a better team than their record would indicate. The Atlanta Braves are unlikely to finish at .500. I think the Braves will sink over the course of the season largely because of their poor offense. Washington's offense has been bad this year, but they are much better against left-handed pitching, and here they'll face one of the worst left-handed starters in baseball in Eric Stults. Stults is a pitch to contact type of guy, and I think the Nationals will square up several tonight. Good price here on the road team. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are both playing good baseball coming into this series. Nate Karns and Adam Warren are two young starters who haven't quite settled into their roles just yet. The first meeting between these two this year finished 5-4 in Tampa Bay. This is certainly a more hitter friendly park. Warren has 8 walks on the year and only 6 strikeouts. Too many runners are getting on base against him, and he is pitching to contact. Karns is really inconsistent at this point, and the Yankees lineup is sneaky good. The Rays bullpen has been a big problem this year, and Karns doesn't pitch very deep into the game.

The over is 5-0 in Karns' last 5 starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0-1 in the Yankees last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Warren's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams at Yankee Stadium. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Mets/Yankees CASH* The New York Mets picked up a nice win with Matt Harvey on the mound yesterday. Harvey is throwing the ball so well right now. Jon Niese is a solid pitcher, but he's definitely no Matt Harvey. The Yankees rank second in the majors in on base percentage against lefties. This Yankees lineup can really put people on base against lefties, and Niese has a relatively high WHIP in his career. Nate Eovaldi has an electric fastball, and he's going against a Mets lineup that isn't good right now. Without D'Arnaud and Wright, this team is playing several guys who are very poor hitters. The Mets deserve tons of credit for how they have played thus far, but that impressive record gives us value going against them. The Mets are 3-13 in Niese's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Yankees. 

*5 Star TOP Play Totals MONEY* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates haven't done much scoring in the first two games of this series, but I like their chances of putting up a lot more runs on Sunday. Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open, and that is magnified when it is daytime. The roof will be open during the day here on Sunday afternoon. Jeremy Hellickson is a bad fit for these conditions. He has struggled with giving up the long ball too much in his career. I think the Pirates will tag him for several runs here. Francisco Liriano is a quality lefty, but the Diamondbacks are better against lefties than righties. Take advantage of this low number. Take the over big! 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Milwaukee Brewers have a very banged up lineup right now. Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy are two of the team's three best hitters, and they are on the disabled list right now. Yadier Molina is questionable for this one with an injury for St. Louis. Lance Lynn has been spectacular against Milwaukee in the past. In 40 innings in his career at Miller Park, Lynn has an ERA of only 1.80. Mike Fiers is an underrated starter, and he has an ERA below 2 in his career against the Cardinals. With both offenses banged up, a total set at 8 looks too high with these two on the mound.

The under is 7-0 in Lynn's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in Fiers' last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB Moneyline Game of MONTH* The Washington Nationals have dropped the first two games in this series. There's no question that Washington is the better of these two teams, and over the course of the season that will show. Gio Gonzalez is a good stopper to have going in the series finale here. Gonzalez is from near Miami, and he has pitched extremely well against the Marlins in the past. How good has he been? In 54 innings against the Marlins, he has a sparkling 1.67 ERA. The Marlins offense hasn't been good against lefties, and he is a good one. Miami starts Dan Haren here, and he isn't a reliable pitcher at this stage in his career. His peripherals suggest that regression is coming soon. The Nationals have shown lots of resilience in this position, and I expect to see it again on Sunday.

Washington is 4-0 in their last 4 after losing the first two games of the series. They are 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts against Miami. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games. A 13-0 angle. Take Washington big! 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The San Diego Padres are clearly a much better baseball team than they were last year. Derek Norris is an under the radar pickup that has paid big dividends already. We know Matt Kemp and Justin Upton are going to be great for this lineup as they have already. Yasiel Puig re-injured his hamstring last night, and I think chances are slim that he'll play in this game. Ian Kennedy is an underrated starter who is making his first start of the season. Brandon McCarthy is a little bit overrated in my opinion. McCarthy is a decent pitcher, but for him to be laying money on the road with one of the team's best players likely out doesn't make sense. I'll take the dog. Take San Diego. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Colorado Rockies have won their last five meetings at Coors Field with the San Francisco Giants. There is no doubt that San Francisco has a better pitching staff than Colorado, but the problem for them is their offense. San Francisco's offense has a hard time keeping up with Colorado's offense in Colorado. The Rockies sat out Troy Tulowitzki in game one and still picked up the victory. He'll play here and the Rockies should be at full strength. Tim Hudson has been terrible at Coors Field. In 8 career starts there, he has a 7.29 ERA. I don't think it will go well for him here either. Jorge De La Rosa was bombed last start, but he has a very good history at Coors Field, and the Rockies are 8-2 in his last 10 starts vs. the Giants.

The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 at Coors Field. They are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. The Rockies are 48-10 in De La Rosa's last 58 home starts. Take Colorado. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is one of the best hitters parks in the big leagues when the roof is open. The roof will be open with the game time temperature in the low 80's here. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 15 miles per hour. You couldn't get better conditions for an over here. Rubby De La Rosa was blasted by a bad Giants lineup earlier this year at Chase Field, and the Pirates offense is improving of late. Pittsburgh has some pretty good hitters, and I expect them to do well here. A.J. Burnett is good at PNC Park, but pitching at Chase Field is a whole different animal. The ball will be flying well here. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the majors. They should finish in the top three or four in runs scored this year. Baltimore's offense isn't bad either with Manny Machado heating up and Adam Jones hitting it well. Justin Masterson is always on the edge of giving up a big inning the way he allows base runners to get on. Wei Yin Chen is a decent pitcher, but he doesn't have good out pitches to put away quality hitters like the Red Sox have.  Boston crushes left-handed pitching. I didn't expect to be able to get this total at just 8.5. I think this game gets to at least 10 runs. 

The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 vs. lefties. The over is 7-0-1 in Baltimore's last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a home favorite of -150 or less. A 17-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland Athletics lost a heartbreaker last night in extra innings at home against Houston. The Astros are certainly a much better team than they have been in the past, but they aren't going to keep winning at the pace they are on right now. Houston's bullpen isn't deep, and last night's game going into extras hurts them here. Graveman has a high upside for Oakland, which is something I can't say about Scott Feldman. Feldman has been absolutely awful against Oakland in his career. In 53 and 1/3 innings pitching at Oakland (a pitcher's park) he has an ERA of 7.59. The Astros are 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. Oakland. Lay the short price. Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Angels -1.5* This is a fade of Wandy Rodriguez. The guy was constantly crushed last season, and I don't see things getting better for him as he ages. Los Angeles' lineup has a lot of guys that can crush left-handed pitching (Trout and Freese in particular). Garrett Richards has a pretty decent bullpen backing him up, and the Angels have the potential to put up a very big number here. Since the moneyline is too expensive, I'm playing the run line. Take the Angels -1.5. 

*5 Star Late Night TOP Play CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angels offense is a very good one. The Angels can put up runs in bunches when the opposing pitcher is off his game at all. Wandy Rodriguez was terrible last year, and while he had pretty good numbers this spring, those numbers often don't translate into the games that mean something. The Angels are good against lefties and I see them feasting on Rodriguez here. Garrett Richards is a good pitcher, but he's still working his way back from an injury. He struggled with his command in his minor league rehab start and he did the exact same thing vs. Houston in his start five days ago. The Rangers offense isn't elite, but they still have enough to piece together some scoring chances. This total at just 7.5 is very surprising. I think 8.5 or 9 is where this should be. 

The over is 3-0-1 in Richards' last 4 home starts vs. Texas. The over is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 home games. The over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the over big! 

*4 Star Play on Pirates ML* I'm really high on Cole. He has a tremendous upside as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. Arizona's offense isn't very good outside of Goldschmitt. The Pirates have been up and down so far this year, but I still think the Pirates have the better lineup from top to bottom. Pittsburgh has the huge bullpen advantage as well. I think this line should be more like -140, so I like the value on it. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Washington Nationals are better than their record would indicate. This team isn't going to be below .500 for very long. Washington's pitching staff is just amazing from top to bottom. They slipped up a couple times against the Cardinals, but playing Miami is a large step down. Mat Latos is struggling with his command right now, and the Nationals offense is starting to get healthy. Jordan Zimmerman is an underrated pitcher who is typically very consistent. Zimmerman has an ERA of 2.66 in his career when pitching in Miami. Huge pitching edge for the Nats makes this a good value at such a short price.

The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games in Miami. The Nationals are 8-1 in Zimmerman's last 9 starts vs. the NL East. A 13-1 angle. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Mets are definitely a better team than they were last year, but they aren't even close to as good as they've looked so far this year. They are without David Wright now, and their lineup is really weak on paper. They've found ways to score runs lately, but it should be tougher sledding against the Yankees this weekend. The Mets have benefited from an easy schedule of late, and the Yankees are playing good baseball. I like Jacob Degrom, so this is no fade of him, rather it's just a fade of the Mets at this price. Pineda is a quality pitcher, and I don't see the Mets scoring many. The Yankees lineup is good, and I think this price is too cheap. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The San Francisco Giants offense is a mess right now. The Dodgers have Yasiel Puig back in the lineup. Los Angeles has a big edge offensively here. Bolsinger is a bit of an unknown, but he has pitched pretty well in the minors. Ryan Vogelsong is a guy I don't trust. I think his stuff is getting worse. The Dodgers lost last night in tough fashion, and I think this is a great shot for them to bounce back quickly against their rivals. The Dodgers have proven great at bouncing back in the past. They are 39-18 in their last 57 following a loss. Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets keep finding ways to win games. They won it late last night over Atlanta. The Mets are certainly improved, but I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate. Atlanta isn't a good team either though, and the Braves offense is starting to come back down to earth. The Braves lineup isn't good, and Bartolo Colon has great numbers against nearly everyone in this Atlanta lineup. Teheran is a quality pitcher for Atlanta, and he has pitched well against the Mets in the past. It's a get away day which means we could easily see a couple key bats out of the lineup here. The under is 6-2 in Teheran's last 8 starts vs. the Mets. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners offense is a lot better with Nelson Cruz in the middle of the lineup. Cruz can make a pitcher pay for a mistake in a hurry. Seth Smith was an underrated pickup for this team as well. Smith really hits it well off right-handed pitching. Houston's lineup is gradually improving, and they are much better against left-handed pitching. Springer is a star in the making, and the Astros have several quality right-handed bats. J.A. Happ and Roberto Hernandez aren't good pitchers at all. A total set this low with these guys, and I'm taking the over. Both bullpens have struggled of late as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres have taken the first two games in this series. This is a four game series. San Diego is a much better team than they have been in the past, because now they can score runs. Matt Kemp and Justin Upton in the middle of the order is a big change from what the Padres have had in the past few seasons. James Shields also gives them a big game pitcher who normally doesn't get rattled. Colorado's offense is very good, and this could be a high scoring game, but the Padres have a huge pitching edge and a huge advantage in the bullpen. Kyle Kendrick has a 6.33 ERA in 7 starts at Coors Field. 

The Padres are 4-0 in their last vs. the NL West. Colorado is 0-4 in their last 4 home games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a division foe. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first two games in a series. The Rockies are 0-4 in Jim Joyce's last 4 games behind home plate. He's behind the plate here. A 32-0 angle. Take San Diego. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the MONTH* The Kansas City Royals send their worst starting pitcher out to take on the Minnesota Twins worst starting pitcher here. Jeremy Guthrie has had an ERA well above 4 at Kaufman Stadium the last two seasons despite the fact that he plays in front of one of the best defenses in baseball. Guthrie is past his prime now, and the Twins lineup is better than they were last year. Mike Pelfrey has been even worse than Guthrie. Pelfrey isn't a good starter at all, and his worst month of the year in his big league career has been April (5.28). Pelfrey has a 9.49 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. I don't see how the oddsmakers came up with a total of 8 runs for a game like this. This is a neutral park and we have a neutral home plate umpire. I think a total of 9 or even 9.5 would have made more sense. Take the over big! 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Boston Red Sox have one of the best lineups in the majors this year. Boston is going to pile up the runs in a lot of different locations this year. I won with the Red Sox last night, but it wasn't because of that offense. It was because they blanked the Rays 1-0. Boston's offense should wake up against the youngster Nate Karns. Karns has been allowing far too many baserunners so far this year, and the Red Sox are the type of team that usually makes pitchers pay for that. Joe Kelly has been solid this year, and the Rays offense isn't very impressive.

Boston is 4-0 in Kelly's last 4 road starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. Tampa Bay is 0-4 in their last 4. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. They are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog. A 37-1 angle. Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals are a much better team than they showed early this year. Washington is going to win a lot of games this year. Doug Fister has a brilliant 1.97 ERA in 14 career starts in Washington DC. He does a great job using this spacious park to his benefit. John Lackey is a good pitcher, but he's not elite at this point in his career. St. Louis certainly is a good team, but for Washington to be almost even money against anyone at home with a terrific pitcher on the mound is too much value for me to pass. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* I took the over when these two teams played last night, and I'm taking the over again here. Ubaldo Jimenez can either be brilliant or he can be awful. It's hard to predict how he'll be on any given night. He does face a really good lineup here though. Aaron Sanchez probably has a nice future in the big leagues, but he has a lot of work to do. Sanchez hasn't been good so far this year, and the Orioles offense is underrated as a unit. Both of these pitchers could give up some very big innings. I was surprised to see this total at 8.5. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle Total* The Pittsburgh Pirates blew the game late last night vs. the Chicago Cubs. This Cubs offense is clearly much better than they were a year ago. It helps having a lot more depth in the lineup. Pittsburgh's offense hasn't been very good this year, but I still believe the Pirates offense is at least as good as the league average. Jason Hammel is a mediocre pitcher who will likely have an ERA near 4.00 at the end of the season. Vance Worley should be at a similar mark, and Worley has a history of pitching poorly in the first half of the season. This total is set as if we have two great pitchers, and that isn't the case.

The over is 3-0-2 in the Cubs last 5. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in Hammel's last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-2 in the Pirates last 5. The over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 home games. The over is 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 meetings against each other. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh. A 36-0 angle. Take the over big!

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value* I don't like going against Chris Archer, because I'm high on his potential, but the value is too good here. Boston has one of the best lineups in baseball. The Red Sox are going to score runs in bunches this year. Tampa Bay's offense isn't even close to that level. Wade Miley has always been a good pitcher on the road in his career, and Miley is being underrated right now based on his bad start to the season. Archer has been significantly better on the road than at home, which makes him a slightly better fade in this spot. At plus money, Boston is my play. Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Trevor Cahill should improve on his numbers this year now that he is facing worse offenses and playing in much more pitcher-friendly ballparks. He didn't pitch well in his first start, but he'll face a Mets team without David Wright in the middle of the lineup here. Atlanta's lineup has overperformed in a big way so far this year, but it's still early. I'm convinced this Atlanta lineup is still one of the worst in baseball. They have been terrible against lefties the last couple years. Jon Niese has been lights out at Citi Field the last two seasons. The under is 3-0-1 in Niese's last 4 home starts vs. Atlanta. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Baltimore Orioles have been a great team to back as an underdog the last two seasons. Buck Showalter's team is playing pretty good baseball right now, and they aren't intimidated by anyone. Bud Norris was blasted in his first start, but his numbers against Toronto have been pretty good in the past. Mark Buehrle has had a nice career, but he is aging and he allows a bunch of base runners. The Toronto bullpen should end up being one of the worst bullpens in the majors this year. The Orioles are 4-0 in Norris' last 4 starts as an underdog. Jose Reyes is questionable for this one, and if he misses this one that's another reason to take Baltimore. The price is a good one. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals are definitely a good team, but they are getting a little too much respect here. Washington started the season slowly, but the Nationals are going to win a ton of games this year. Washington has the best rotation in baseball, and they have one of the best bullpens as well. The offense is starting to come around now that they are getting healthy. Gio Gonzalez has a 2.87 ERA in his career in 43 starts at Nationals Park in Washington D.C. Lance Lynn has a 2.78 home ERA, but a 4.08 ERA on the road in his career. 

St. Louis is 0-4 in Lynn's last 4 road starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 as a road underdog. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. They are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. A 25-0 angle. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION Play* The Toronto Blue Jays have one of the best offenses in the major leagues. This is a team that can put together big innings at any time. Baltimore's offense is much better than most people realize. With Manny Machado healthy and swinging it well, this offense is much more dangerous. Mark Buehrle has a 5.19 ERA against the Orioles in the last three seasons. There won't be too many games lined at 8.5 with the Blue Jays involved this year and no elite pitcher on the mound. Bud Norris and Mark Buehrle are both nothing more than average pitchers at this stage of their careers.

The over is 5-0 in Norris' last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 6-0 in Norris' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Buehrle's last 4 Tuesday starts. The over is 7-0 in his last 7 following a quality start. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 during game one of a series. A 27-0 angle. Take the over.  

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies were swept out of Los Angeles. They return home to Coors Field, where they have always been a much better bet. Colorado's offense was blanked yesterday, but they are loaded with talent and they'll pile up the runs this year. Despaigne starts for the Padres, and his home vs. road splits are striking. He has a home ERA of 1.64 in his career and a road ERA of 5.31. He's on the road here, and he's in the most hitter friendly park of them all. Jorge De La Rosa has been lights out at Coors Field the last few years. How good? The Rockies are 48-9 in his last 57 home starts. De La Rosa has done a nice job pitching in this park, and the Padres are a bit banged up right now on offense. 

The Padres are 0-4 in Despaigne's last 4 road starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts as an underdog. Colorado is 9-0 in their last 9 as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 9-0 in their last 9 as a home favorite. The Rockies are 9-0 in De La Rosa's last 9 home starts vs. the Padres. A 35-0 angle. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cleveland Indians haven't played as well early this season as they did last year, but this is a quality team. I'm confident they will get it going. Trevor Bauer has always had really good stuff, and he appears to be breaking out a bit early this year. The White Sox have a free swinging offense, and that works to his advantage. John Danks starts here for the White Sox. Danks has a terrible history against Cleveland. In 23 career starts, Danks has a 5.19 ERA against the Indians. His ERA against the Indians in the last four years is an abysmal 5.59. Huge pitching advantage for Cleveland, and this price is off.

The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less. The Indians are 4-0 in Bauer's last 4 after a quality start. The White Sox are 1-8 in Danks' last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 0-4 in Danks' last 4 starts vs. the Indians. A 21-1 angle. Take Cleveland.