*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Miami Marlins and Houston Astros are going in two completely different directions right now. Houston is 24-8 in their last 32 games. The Astros are playing like one of the best teams in baseball. Miami is 1-9 in their last 10 home games. The Marlins are 7-19 in their last 26 games. 

Lance McCullers is a budding star for the Astros. McCullers is taking that next step this year. He averaged 5.00 walks per nine innings last year. He is averaging only 2.42 walks per nine innings this year. He is averaging 10.61 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Jose Urena has a 1.98 ERA on the year, but that will not continue. His advanced metrics show he has been extremely lucky. Urena is striking out only 4.61 batters per nine innings. He is stranding 94% of runners and his BABIP against is only .259. Urena has a 1.98 ERA, but a 5.02 xFIP.

Houston rested Springer and Bregman last night, so they should be back in the lineup for this early game.

Houston has a big bullpen advantage in this one as well. 

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a good team, but they are much better against right handed pitching than lefties. The Dodgers are batting .274 against righties and .229 against lefties. 

Ty Blach has started two games against the Dodgers in his career. Both were against Clayton Kershaw. The Giants won one of those games 3-0, and lost the other 2-1. Blach is a lefty who pitches to contact and that has worked against the Dodgers in a small sample size.

Rich Hill is slated to start for the Dodgers. He is having blister problems. His walk rate this year is at an all time high. He struggled in both of his rehab starts, and I see no real reason to expect him to be good in this start. The Giants have a combined .375 average against Hill.

The Giants play the Dodgers very tough. They are 19-6 in their last 25 home games against the Dodgers. 

I rarely take the +1.5 line, but here I will. It's a low posted total, and these two play a lot of close games against each other. We don't have to lay much juice at all on this one.

Take the Giants +1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST BET* The Arizona Diamondbacks are better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Last year, Arizona was first in the majors against lefties in weighted on base average.

Tom Milone starts here for the Mets, and he is a subpar lefty. Milone doesn't have overpowering stuff, and he has always been very prone to giving up the home run ball. That's bad news at Chase Field where the roof should be open for this game. The ball flies extremely well with the roof open here.

Zack Greinke is pitching in fine form right now. Greinke has the highest swinging strike rate of his career right now. He is throwing his slider more often, and it is a pitch that most hitters can't touch.

The Mets bullpen is a dumpster fire right now. In the last 30 days, the Mets bullpen has a 5.73 ERA. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 3.28 ERA in the same period.

The Mets offense was really good for a long time, but they are short handed right now. They are up against an elite pitcher. The Diamondbacks should get to Milone here.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox* The Boston Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez. This is a guy who went through some growing pains, but he was always a very highly rated prospect. He's pitching great in his last few starts. In his last three road starts, he has allowed a total of 4 runs. In his last 5 starts, he has a FIP of 3.18 or lower in each of them.

Lance Lynn is due for some major regression. Lynn is giving up a lot more hard hit balls this year, but he has gotten some batted ball luck and he's stranding 86% of his runners.

The American League has dominated the National League in interleague play. The Red Sox are an amazing 121-53 in their last 174 interleague games vs. a right handed pitcher. The Cardinals are weak against lefties overall, and the Cardinals are 8-22 in their last 30 home interleague games vs. a left handed starter.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The under is a whopping 63-30-7 in the Rangers last 100 Sunday games. I hate putting too much stock in day of the week trends, but Sunday is consistently the best "under" day in the majors overall, so it is something to note. 

Both of these pitchers have excellent track records against their opponent on Sunday. Kendall Graveman has held Texas to a .210 average and .264 OBP in his career. A.J. Griffin has held Oakland to a .163 average and a .234 OBP in his career.

Jim Reynolds is behind the plate and he has changed his stripes a good deal in the past couple years. He was a big over umpire in the past, but he now ranks in the top 20% of umpires in most pitches called a strike. He shouldn't hurt the bet.

It's hot in Texas now, and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph. I ran a query on this situation and found that the under is 59-38 in Texas' last 97 home games with a temperature of 86 degrees or warmer and the wind blowing in. 

The under is 10-2 in the Rangers last 12 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers are playing some good baseball of late. They started the season slowly, but this team is too talented to be bad all year long. Texas' bullpen is improved of late, and the starting pitching has been good.

A.J. Griffin has been tremendous in his last few starts. Griffin has walked only four batters while striking out 23 in his last four starts. He has allowed only one earned run in his last three starts combined. 

Oakland is only 2-10 in their last 12 road games. They are 18-39 in their last 57 vs. the AL West. 

Kendall Graveman has a 3.53 ERA at home, but a 4.55 ERA on the road. Graveman is backed by one of the weaker offenses in the majors here. 

The oddsmakers are having trouble adjusting quick enough to the Rangers after their recent run.

Texas is 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 home starts. The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The Rangers are 6-0 in Griffin's last 6 vs. an AL West foe. The Rangers are 7-0 in Griffin's last 7 following a quality start in his last outing. A 23-0 angle. 

Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies start Tyler Anderson here. Anderson was off to a slow start to the season, but I think his long term numbers at Coors Field suggest he is a pretty solid pitcher. He'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that is really bad against left handed pitching. The Dodgers offense is a little bit banged up right now and Adrian Gonzalez is a key part of their lineup missing. 

Alex Wood is throwing the ball better than he has at any point during his career. Wood has a great 2.73 ERA and an even more impressive 1.91 FIP on the season. His strikeouts per nine innings are above 11, and his swinging strike rate is the highest it has been at any point in his career. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller has made me more money than any other umpire in the majors when it comes to betting on unders. He loves to ring people up, and his strikes called percentage is second of all the umpires in the past five years. 

With a high total and Miller behind the dish, I see this as a good value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Dylan Covey is definitely one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. In fact, I'm surprised the White Sox have kept him in the rotation as long as they have. Covey has some atrocious numbers this year. 

Covey has made 5 starts and his ERA is an awful 8.28. His FIP is 7.22, so he hasn't been all that unlucky either. He's just been bad. He's struck out only 11 batters in his five starters. He's also walked 11 batters. I don't know why the White Sox thought he would be successful as a starter though. He has thrown only 29 innings above the Single A level in the minor leagues. 

San Diego isn't a good team, and I really don't want to back them much at all this year. In this spot and at this price, I have to. Trevor Cahill has some really nice advanced metrics this year. He is striking out 11.21 per nine innings, and his offspeed stuff has been awesome this season.

The early sharp money is on the Padres pretty big. The fact that the sharps are on the Padres in a big way made me pay attention.

The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

Take San Diego. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox moved the start time up for this game to 1:05 because of the weather forecast. I initially overlooked this game because I saw it as a likely rainout, but with the moved start time, I see good reasons to take Boston here since the game should be able to be completed based on the current forecast. The rain is expected to start around 4 pm.

Chris Sale starts for Boston. He has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year. Sale has a 1.92 ERA and a 1.45 FIP on the season. He is striking out a ridiculous 12.72 batters per nine innings. The Tampa Bay lineup has combined to hit a miserable .126 against Sale. 

Blake Snell starts for the Rays, and he has had major control problems in his young career. Snell is walking 5.5 batters per nine innings. He has 3.96 ERA, but his FIP is 5.05. Snell puts himself in bad positions very often. Trying to constantly pitch out of jams is rough against a lineup like this Boston one.

The Rays have the much weaker lineup and the much weaker bullpen. They obviously are at a huge disadvantage in the starting pitching area.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Chicago White Sox are better than many expected them to be. They have a strong bullpen and that's a great start for being competitive. The White Sox are coming off a disappointing series against the Minnesota Twins, and I think they get back on track against the lowly San Diego Padres.

San Diego is coming off a really tough loss in Texas late on Thursday night. San Diego led the entire game before losing in the bottom of the ninth when Maurer blew the save. I believe the Padres have the worst team in baseball, and they are in for a very long season. The fact that they are in a difficult spot by losing late last night and traveling late into Chicago makes this a better situation to back the White Sox.

Taking American League teams in Interleague play over the last ten years has been a big money maker. 

The White Sox are 5-0 in Miguel Gonzalez's last 5 home starts. I'll take the short home favorite here.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The Marlins pitching staff has really fallen apart of late, and the bullpen is taxed right now. 

Jose Urena gets the start here, and I don't think he's the answer. Urena had a 6.13 ERA last year. His ERA looks great this year, but that is thanks to stranding 94.3% of runners. He is striking out only 4.22 batters per nine innings. Urena is going to regress to the mean soon. The Braves hitters have a .500 OBP against him, though it is in only 26 plate appearances. 

Mike Foltynewicz had a 4.31 ERA last year and he has a 4.55 ERA so far this year. He puts himself into bad pitch counts far too often, and that leads to mistakes. This is a guy with potential, but so far he has struggled to realize it. The Marlins hitters combine to have a .400 on base percentage against him in 50 plate appearances.

Both bullpens are bad and these offenses are improved. The over is 25-8-2 in the last 35 meetings between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open. The ball flies so well there with the heat and low humidity.

There are some great long-term numbers to prove this is a great over park with the roof open as it is scheduled to be in this one. The over is 150-99 (60.2%) in the last 249 games at Chase Field with the following conditions being met:

-A temperature of 75 degrees or warmer

-The total is 9.5 or lower

-The game is before the All Star Break (roof rarely open later in the season)

Greinke and Cole are both good pitchers, but both of these bullpens are trainwrecks. A total of only 8.5 at Chase Field with the roof open is only warranted if you have a guy like Clayton Kershaw pitching in my opinion, and he isn't pitching here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals collide in a get away day game in Tampa Bay here. These types of games are generally slightly lower scoring. It's the type of game where you see umpires call more strikes and hitters swing at more first pitches in hopes of keeping things moving. 

Mike Everitt is behind the plate here. On a get away day with a game start time of 5 pm eastern or earlier, the under is 40-24 in Everitt's last 64 games behind home plate. That's a nice 62.5% win percentage.

Jason Vargas and Jake Odorizzi have pitched really well this year, and they'll be facing a weak opposing offense here. Look for both guys to pitch fairly deep into the game.

The under is 12-1 in Vargas' last 13 starts. The under is 8-1 in Odorizzi's last 9 starts. The under is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 following a quality start in his last game. A combined 24-2 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Red Sox offense underachieved for a long time this year. Now, they are on fire. It can be pretty amazing how long these kind of offensive streaks can go for good offensive teams. The Red Sox will definitely finish the year as one of the best offenses in baseball. 

Boston has scored 35 runs in their last three games! They sat out a couple key hitters last night, and I would expect a full roster of starters for this one. Chase Anderson started the year red hot, but he has been shaky in his last couple starts. Anderson is a streaky pitcher and he's been missing his spots in his last couple starts. Boston should make him pay.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Kendrick is almost 33 years old, and he was never very good to start with. Kendrick had a 4.73 ERA in Triple A last year, and he had a 6.00 ERA in Triple A this year before being called up. That's not the type of guy that has much success against a good big league lineup very often. The Brewers have a lot of young talent in the order.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Washington Nationals are first in the majors in on base percentage against lefties, and it isn't even close. They won't keep up their current rate, but this team is excellent against lefties.

Wade Miley is due for some serious regression. Miley is stranding 90.2% of runners so far this year, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact. It's just a matter of time! The Nationals seem like as good of a candidate as any to be the team that starts his bad run. Washington hitters have an amazing .405 average against Miley in a pretty large sample size.

Stephen Strasburg keeps getting better. He is doing a great job mixing up his pitches, and I think he can keep the Orioles off balance here.

Getting this kind of price on the run line is too good to pass up.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Francisco Liriano is a very inconsistent pitcher. Liriano is capable of completely shutting anyone down, but he's also capable of struggling badly. Liriano pitches much better at home, and he's up against a Cleveland team that has been really bad against lefties this year.

Cleveland is hitting .213 against lefties on the year, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Danny Salazar is due for some positive regression. Opponents have a ridiculously high batting average on balls in play against him of .385. That will come down over time. Salazar has excellent stuff and he's up against a Toronto offense without Donaldson and Tulowitzki.

Vic Carapazza is the home plate umpire here, and he ranks in the top ten of my best under umpires in baseball. 

The under is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 4-0-1 in Salazar's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hector Santiago and Mike Pelfrey on the mound and the total is only 8.5? The cool temperatures in Chicago have something to do with it, but I can't pass up an over at this number with these two guys on the mound.

Santiago has a 2.78 ERA this year, but he has a 5.19 xFIP and a 4.74 SIERA. Those are sabermetric stats that show Santiago has been extremely lucky so far this year. He'll face a White Sox team that ranks in the top six in the majors against left handed pitching in almost all the major categories. 

Mike Pelfrey had 7.50 ERA in two starts in Triple A this year, and he has a 5.02 ERA in the big leagues thus far. This is a guy who is averaging a pathetic 2.51 strikeouts per nine innings this year. He isn't missing bats, and I don't expect Pelfrey to fool many Twins in this game. The Twins hitters have a lifetime batting average of .367 against him.

The over is 8-1 in the Twins last 9 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is way better than they showed early in the season. The Cardinals have broken out offensively in their last few games. St. Louis has now scored 30 runs in their last four games. I look for this to be one of the best offenses in the National League this year.

Adam Wainwright isn't the pitcher he used to be. Wainwright has an ERA over 6 this year. He isn't as bad as that number would suggest, but his road ERA in the last two years is well over 5. The Marlins offense is good enough with Yelich, Stanton, and Ozuna in the middle of the order to do some damage.

Both bullpens have been bad this year and that means scoring chances late in the game. 

Andy Fletcher is behind the plate here, and he ranks in the bottom ten umps in the majors in strikes called in the past five years.

The over is 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Miami between these teams. A 15-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cleveland Indians went up against the Toronto ace Marcus Stroman in game one of this series. Stroman was on his game and quieted the Indians in that contest. Cleveland gets a much easier test against Mike Bolsinger in this one.

Bolsinger wasn't very good in the minors through the years. He had one good year with the Dodgers in the big leagues, and in all his other stints in the big leagues he was hit hard. Last year, he had a 6.04 ERA in Triple A with the Blue Jays. Now, he's in the big leagues and up against a very good team.

The Indians start Carlos Carrasco, who is one of the top 15 or 20 pitchers in baseball today. Carrasco's stuff continues to get better as the years go by. He has great movement on his pitches. He'll face a Toronto lineup that is without Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson. 

The Indians have the huge edge in the bullpen as well.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEYMAKER* The San Francisco Giants are a mess right now. The Giants are without Denard Span and Brandon Crawford, and the Giants have been awful on offense lately. Scott Feldman just pitched a complete game shutout against them on Sunday. The Giants have lost 4 of their last 8 games by at least 8 runs. They haven't even been competitive.

Jacob Degrom is throwing the ball harder than he has at any time in his career. His swinging strike rate is up and his FIP and XFIP are quite a bit below his ERA. Degrom is a guy I'll look to back at home. In his career, Degrom has a sparkling 1.97 ERA at home. 

Matt Moore is giving up a ton of hard contact this year. 41.3% of balls in play against Moore have been hard hit, and that is an extremely high percentage. Basically, he hasn't been fooling anyone. 

The odds here imply only a 59.5% chance of the Mets winning. I don't like laying this big of a price very often, but I think it is warranted here. 

Take the Mets. 

*4 Star Yankees/Cubs Sunday Night CASH* The New York Yankees have taken the first two games in this series. The Yankees are definitely impressing so far this year, but I still believe they will come back down to earth a bit in the weeks and months to come.

The Chicago Cubs are only a couple games above .500, and the Cubs have been a disappointment so far on the year. I'm not worried about the Cubs, and I fully expect them to get it going soon.

Jon Lester is a good guy to be sending to the mound to be the stopper. Lester has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, and he's a guy that excels on the big stage.

Luis Severino has a bright future, but he'll be up against a hungry Cubs offense that is one of the best in baseball. I won't be surprised if he has a couple bad innings that cost him here.

I'm not usually one to subscribe to the "you can't sweep a team so I'll bet the other side in the last game of the series" theory, but in this case I find this to be a great spot for the Cubs. There's little doubt the Cubs will be the better team this year, and we're getting the defending champs at a very short price at home when they are looking to salvage a game.

The Cubs are 23-6 in Lester's last 29 home starts. The Yankees are 4-13 in Severino's last 17 starts.

Take Chicago.

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Coors Field is obviously the best hitters park in the majors. The weather conditions matter a lot at Coors though, and the weather conditions on Sunday are absolutely perfect for the over.

A warm temperature has meant higher scoring at Coors Field. Wind blowing out is obviously helpful as well, and that's what we'll have here. The average temperature during this game is expected to be 78 degrees. The wind will be blowing out at 10-15 mph.

In the past 75 day games at Coors Field with a temperature of 75 degrees or warmer and wind blowing out at 10 mph or more, the over is 50-25.

Tyler Chatwood has been terrible at home. He has a career 5.04 ERA at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks bullpen isn't any good, so even if Taijuan Walker slows down the Rockies lineup, Colorado should get plenty of scoring chances late.

Take the over.

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners offense has been much better of late. They were quieted by Yu Darvish last night, but lots of teams will be quieted by Darvish and his elite stuff. Seattle has a lineup full of guys who can hit lefties.

Martin Perez is a below average lefty. Seattle's lineup has a combined .425 on base percentage against Perez, so there are a bunch of guys who really hit him well. Nelson Cruz has 3 homers in 12 at bats against Perez. Kyle Seager has 4 homers in 32 at bats against Perez. 

Chase De Jong doesn't appear to be ready for the big leagues yet. De Jong has had serious control problems all through his minor league career, and he can't locate the zone at all in the bigs. His stuff isn't overpowering enough to overcome that.

The bullpens were both used up in a big way last night. The two starters have to go deeper here, and neither starter is good.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Chicago White Sox are one of the best teams in the majors against left handed pitching, but they are awful against right handed pitching. The White Sox have a ridiculously low .270 weighted on base average against right handed pitching. That's easily the worst of any team in baseball. 

Dylan Bundy has good stuff and if he can keep his control he is tough to hit. He'll be helped by an umpire (O'Nora) behind the plate who has a bigger strike zone than the average umpire. 

Dylan Covey is in way over his head right now. Covey has pitched a whopping 6 games above the high A ball level in the minors! How a guy can jump that fast to the majors makes no sense to me. Not surprisingly, Covey has a 7.29 ERA and a 6.95 FIP so far this year. Covey is striking out only 3.43 batters per nine innings, so he isn't fooling anyone.

The Orioles are 51-21 in their last 72 home games vs. a right handed starter. They might not have faced a worse starter in that 72 game span than Dylan Covey. 

The only reason this wasn't a 5 star play is Bundy is still young and inconsistent, but I'm happy to fade Dylan Covey and the White Sox against a right handed starter.

Take Baltimore -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been much better than expected this year. Eugenio Suarez's red hot start has been a big catalyst. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler have been very good as well. Everyone expects Joey Votto to be great, and he has been as per the norm. 

The under is 11-3 in the San Francisco Giants 14 home games this year. The over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games. The Giants and Reds have played a bunch of high scoring games against each other in the last few years. The over is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings. The over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings between them in Cincinnati.

Ty Blach is a pitch to contact guy. He's averaging less than 4 strikeouts per nine innings. That's extremely low. Amir Garrett was awesome in his first few games but the advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate overall and I suspect he'll have plenty of growing pains.

Both teams have been better against lefties than righties on the year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on the Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians are one of the best teams in baseball. They have started slowly, but I trust them to have a very good season again. The Royals are going to be one of the worst teams in the American League. Kansas City isn't even close to the team they were a couple years ago.

Cleveland's Josh Tomlin has pitched into some terrible luck this year. He has an ERA of 8.87 but a FIP and XFIP of a very respectable 3.77 and 3.38. Tomlin is up against a weak Royals offense here. 

The Royals start Jason Vargas here. Vargas has pitched really well this year. This play isn't a fade on him, but the team around him.

The Royals are at a severe disadvantage when it comes to offense, bullpen, and even their defense. Only the starting pitcher do they have an edge. 

Getting one of the best teams in baseball at almost even money is too cheap here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB TGIF Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas Rangers send Yu Darvish to the mound while the Seattle Mariners send Yovani Gallardo to the hill. This is a really big starting pitching mismatch. Darvish has had a couple hiccups, but he has some of the best stuff in the game, and he pitches really well away from home. Gallardo is near the end of his career, and his velocity is terrible now. I don't see things getting better for him.

The Texas Rangers have had some bad bullpen collapses this year, so the public perception would be that the Rangers bullpen is worse than Seattle's. The statistics show that it hasn't been though. Seattle has the worst bullpen ERA in baseball and the Rangers are 4th worst. All three of the FIP, XFIP, and SIERA (sabermetrics gauges) have the Rangers as having the better bullpen as compared to the Mariners.

The Rangers are 4-1 in Darvish's last 5 starts against Seattle. At this price, I'm on the Rangers.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox are too big of an underdog here. Miguel Gonzalez is going back to pitch against his old team. You never know exactly how that will turn out, but Gonzalez has been solid this year with a 3.27 ERA and you know he will be very motivated here.

Wade Miley is badly overpriced right now. Miley is stranding 89.4% of runners on base so far this year. That's completely unsustainable. Miley also has a batting average on balls in play against him of only .254 compared to .328 a year ago. 

The White Sox are top five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The bullpens are pretty even and this is a line that should be around +120, so we are getting too good of a price to pass on.

The Orioles are 2-6 in Miley's last 8 home starts. The White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left handed starter. 

Take the White Sox. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday Early Bird Special* Bill Miller is one of the best under umpires in baseball. No other umpire has made me as much money in the past few years as Miller. The under has value to start with Miller behind the plate. In fact, the under is 219-173 in his games behind the plate (56% under wins). 

The wind here is a major factor as well. The wind is expecting to be blowing in from left center field at 15-20 mph throughout the game with gusts to 25 mph. With a temperature only in the low to mid 60's, the ball won't be carrying well on Thursday afternoon in Kansas City.

The Royals are dead last in weighted on base average in the majors against left handed pitching. The White Sox are dead last in the same category against right handed pitching. Holland is a mediocre lefty, but that should be enough to slow the Royals. Ian Kennedy has been good for the Royals, and his swinging strikes rate and overall strikeout rate has me relatively high on him right now.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 6-0 in the Royals last 6 games overall vs. a team with a winning record. A 17-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners start Hisashi Iwakuma here. Iwakuma's numbers on the year don't look all that bad, but a closer look at him and I think he is in some real trouble going forward.

Iwakuma has a 4.15 ERA, but his FIP is 6.58 on the season. Iwakuma is striking out only 4.15 batters per nine innings. He struck out 7.70 per nine innings two years ago. Iwakuma is allowing more hard contact than he has at any other time in his career. His velocity is down drastically this year, and it suggests either simple aging (he is 36) or an injury of some kind. 

Ricky Nolasco starts for the Angels. Nolasco has a 4.13 ERA but a FIP of 5.26, so he has gotten lucky as well. Nolasco isn't a terrible pitcher, but he isn't good either.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate and he's a very good over umpire. The over is hitting at a 57% clip in his last 5 years of games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* I'm not one to like to back Mike Pelfrey on a regular basis, but this price is ridiculous. The Royals offense has been consistently the worst in the majors. They'll likely get to Pelfrey a decent amount, but Nate Karns isn't a shutdown guy by any means.

Karns and Pelfrey have similar FIP's, and these are two guys who are unreliable. What about the bullpens? The White Sox have a huge advantage here. The Royals have one of the three or four worst bullpens in baseball.

With the White Sox having the better offense and the better bullpen, this price should be around even money. I'll gladly take the big plus money price.

Take the White Sox. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals are absolutely crushing left handed pitching so far this year. Washington has an amazing .439 OBP against lefties this year. That's obviously not going to continue, but the Nationals are going to be one of the top three or four in the majors against lefties.

Arizona ranked as the best team in the majors against lefties according to weighted on base average last year. The Diamondbacks are 11th so far this year. Expect them to be very good in that category again this year.

Robbie Ray is a pretty good starter, but walks are a major problem. Ray is walking 5.04 batters per nine innings. That's bad news when Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire. He is arguably the best over umpire in the business and he won't give Ray any breaks here.

Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 1.62 ERA and a 3.69 FIP and a 4.17 FIP. That suggests he has gotten very fortunate so far this year. He started really fast last year before pitching some subpar baseball the rest of the way.

The over is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL West. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. A 16-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Cincinnati Reds hot start was never going to last. I'm a Reds fan personally, but I don't make bets based on who I like, I bet based on where I see value. 

Jameson Taillon is a really good young pitcher. He has great control and is able to limit the big innings because of that. Rookie Davis is walking 6.52 batters per nine innings this year, so obviously control is a problem for him. Add in the fact that he has a swinging strike rate of only 6.6%, and he is a guy I'll look to fade.

The Pirates have the deeper lineup and the much better starter here. Tom Hallion is the umpire and the road team is 94-64 in Hallion's last 158 games behind home plate. I hate to put too much stock into things like that, but it seems like Hallion likes to send the home fans home ticked off. It's just an extra boost to a bet that already had value.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Kansas City Royals are still being mispriced by the oddsmakers. This isn't the same Kansas City Royals team from a couple years ago. Kansas City has a much weaker offense, a much worse bullpen, and the starting rotation is one of the worst in baseball.

Danny Duffy is probably the most consistent pitcher in the rotation, but he's a 3.75 ERA type of guy. Jose Quintana has proven himself to be even better than Duffy in my opinion. Quintana is off to a bit of a slow start, but his consistency in the last three years with an ERA of 3.36 or lower every year tells me he should get much better in the near future. 

The White Sox lineup is set up to hit well against lefties. Chicago is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year. 

The White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games against a left handed starter.

Take Chicago here. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw in this one. Kershaw is definitely the best pitcher in baseball. He dominates in ways no one else can. Kershaw consistently gets some of the highest swinging strike percentages of anyone in baseball. He is extremely consistent, and he pitches very deep into games.

The Giants start Johnny Cueto here. Cueto is certainly a good pitcher, but he isn't even close to the same caliber as Kershaw. I'm starting to think Cueto isn't quite what he was a year or two ago either. Cueto's velocity isn't what it was a couple years ago, and he is giving up a lot more hard contact.

San Francisco's lineup is a major mess right now. The Giants are without Crawford and Span, and this an offense that doesn't have a big margin for error. 

The Dodgers offense has underperformed in a big way so far this year, but against right handed pitching this team is going to be excellent. Positive regression is coming for this Dodgers offense.

The Giants are at a big bullpen disadvantage here as well.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Monday BEST Bet* The New York Mets were beaten 23-5 yesterday in Washington. Yes, you read that correctly. The Mets have been a mess this year, and it doesn't appear to be getting better in any way right now. 

In some sports, teams who are beaten badly bounce back at a nice clip in the next game. That isn't the case in Major League Baseball. In fact, in the long run it has been a profitable move to continue to go against teams that just got blasted in their last game.

The bigger reason for this play though is Julio Teheran giving the Braves a starting pitching edge, and the Braves offense being so much better than the Mets. The Mets really miss Cespedes (on offense and defense), and the Braves offense is much better this year than they have been in the past couple seasons.

Teheran has a dazzling 2.25 ERA in 104 innings against the Mets in his career. Teheran goes against a short handed Mets lineup here. Gsellman starts for the Mets, and he has been very shaky this year. His control has been a big problem.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are both better on offense than they have shown in the early going this year. Both of these teams have a large amount of proven hitters who are underachieving thus far, and those guys should start producing sooner rather than later. 

Rick Porcello isn't nearly as good as you would think based on the fact that he won the AL Cy Young award last year. Porcello is a pitch to contact guy who has only been mediocre in his career against Baltimore. The Orioles have a .323 OBP against him.

Dylan Bundy has been good this year, but I still don't trust his consistency, especially away from home. Bundy has a career 2.67 ERA at home and a 4.53 ERA on the road. 

The Orioles bullpen is good, but it takes a big hit without Britton. The Red Sox bullpen is only average. 

This one is priced too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Cubs/Red Sox Sunday Night CASH* The Chicago Cubs are defending champs, and they are going to be one of the teams to beat this year once again. Boston has a high ceiling, but the Red Sox haven't played very well this year. 

Kyle Hendricks is better than his early ERA for this season looks. Hendricks has pitched into some bad luck and in the long run his ERA should come back down to 3.5 or so. 

Eduardo Rodriguez pitched a gem in his last start, but it's hard to count on him. Rodriguez has been wildly inconsistent in his young career. He has been much worse at home. His Fenway Park ERA is 4.71 compared to 3.64 on the road. 

The Cubs have the more consistent pitcher, and the Cubs have the much better bullpen here. I'll take the small plus money price.

Boston is 2-8 in Rodriguez's last 10 home starts.

Take the Cubs. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oakland Athletics will be one of the worst teams in the American League this year. Houston will be one of the best in the American League. In fact, I see Houston as a team that could win the World Series this year. 

Dallas Keuchel has been amazing at home in his career. After a bit of a disappointing season last year, Keuchel has been on his game so far this year. He'll face an Oakland lineup that isn't any good against lefties in this contest.

Jesse Hahn has some terrible home/road splits. His home ERA is 2.96 in his career, but his career road ERA is 4.51. Hahn has made three starts against Houston in his career, and he has a 6.75 ERA in those starts. In his two starts in Houston, Hahn has allowed 10 runs in 6 and 2/3 innings. 

The Astros have the much better starting pitcher. Houston has the better offense by a wide margin and the better bullpen by a solid margin as well.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zack Greinke here. Greinke has been much better so far this year than last. Greinke has a swinging strike rate of 12.9% so far this year, which is the highest of his career. That obviously won't stay that high, but still it shows that his stuff has had some good bite this season.

Tyler Anderson is a decent lefty for Colorado, but Arizona is excellent against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against left handed starters. Arizona will probably finish the season in the top five in the majors in OBP against lefties for the second straight season. 

The Rockies offense is good, but they aren't great. Colorado isn't completely healthy, and the Rockies have been winning a lot of games because of their improved pitching. I think Arizona has a big pitching advantage here. 

The Diamondbacks are 19-7 in their last 26 home games. They are 8-3 in Greinke's last 11 home starts. The Rockies are 1-6 in Anderson's last 7 road starts.

Take Arizona. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox Moneyline* The Chicago White Sox shouldn't be this kind of an underdog against the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is without Miguel Cabrera and JD Martinez. That's two of their top three hitters out of the lineup. That's especially important since Cabrera and Martinez are excellent against lefties and Derek Holland starts for the White Sox in this one.

Derek Holland is a mediocre starter, and there is no doubt Detroit has the starting pitching advantage with Michael Fulmer on the mound. That isn't the only factor in the game though. Too many bettors handicap only the starting pitching matchup. 

The Tigers have what is arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. The White Sox bullpen ranks in the top five in the majors in all the advanced statistical categories so far this year. The White Sox defense is also better than the Tigers.

This kind of price is just way too much to overlook. Detroit isn't very good right now, and they can't be laying this number. 

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The San Diego Padres are one of, if not the worst team in baseball this year. San Diego starts Jered Weaver here, and at this stage of his career he is terrible.

Weaver has a 3.91 ERA this year, but don't let that fool you. Weaver has been unbelievably fortunate so far this season. Opponents have a .182 batting average on balls in play against him. That's completely unsustainable since the average is nearly .300. Also, Weaver has stranded 91% of runners so far this year. That is also unsustainable in the long run.

Taijuan Walker is showing signs of improving this year. He has elite stuff and if he can command all of his pitches, his upside is huge. 

The Padres offense is one of the worst in baseball. Arizona's offense is solid. 

The Diamondbacks have won 8 of their 13 home games by at least 2 runs so far this year. Arizona at plus money on the run line is a good value here.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been awful against left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching so far this year. Last year, they were dead last in the majors in that same statistic against lefties. Matt Moore isn't a particularly great lefty, but this is a very good pitchers park, and the Dodgers don't hit those lefties well to start with. 

Julio Urias is going to be a star for the Dodgers. How soon? Likely sooner than you would think. Urias was very good in his rookie year last year despite being 19 years old. His stuff is electric and he'll be up against a Giants lineup that is badly banged up. The Giants lineup as it stands right now is one of the five worst in the majors.

It's a get away day which makes me lean more toward the under with some key players possibly getting the day off. Also, Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and the under is 86-50 in his last 136 games behind home plate.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have a great rivalry. These two teams bring it every time they meet up with each other. While the Giants haven't been good so far this year, we have seen a much better Giants team show up in the first two games of this series.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller ranks second out of more than 80 umpires in the majors in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. The under is cashing at a 56% clip in Miller's last 300 games behind home plate. You won't find a better under umpire than Miller. He has made me a lot of cash in the past few years.

Johnny Cueto has a 2.61 ERA at AT&T Park. Cueto also has a 2.99 ERA in his career in the first half of the season. He starts strong, and I expect a good outing from him against the Dodgers here.

Alex Wood is a solid pitcher, and he goes against a Giants lineup that has all kinds of injury problems right now.

The Dodgers bullpen is elite and the Giants bullpen is no worse than mediocre.

The under is 7-0 in the Dodgers last 7 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in Wood's last 4 starts following a team loss. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Cueto's last 4 starts vs. the Dodgers. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers meet on Wednesday night in Texas.  Both of these offenses are underachieving so far this year, but I expect them to warm up soon.

Texas has the third lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as a team this year. That tells you they are having some really bad luck in general when it comes to batted balls. This is a Rangers team that has typically been good against left-handed pitching.

Hector Santiago and Cole Hamels both carry some ridiculous strand rates and opponents BABIP numbers. Both of these guys are going to regress in a negative way soon.

Hamels' worst month of the year historically is the first month of the season. Santiago has consistently proven himself to not be good enough to be effective as a starter.

We have an over umpire here in David Rackley. The wind will be blowing out at 15-20 mph during this one as well.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play on Arizona Moneyline* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Patrick Corbin on Tuesday night. Corbin has thrown the ball better so far this year, and he certainly has some real potential. He has multiple strikeout pitches, and he'll be up against a bad Padres team here.

Clayton Richard has stranded 85% of runners so far this year. That isn't going to continue. It's something that shows clear regression on its way. I think it is likely to pop up here against an Arizona team that ranks in the top five as far as best lineups against left handed pitching.

Arizona is 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a left handed starting pitcher. 

Arizona is a surprise team this year, and I do think they have some staying power. I think the Padres are the worst team in the majors. A good price here.

Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The St. Louis Cardinals are a better team than they have shown so far this year. I still think the Cardinals have one of the better offenses in the National League. They haven't proven it yet this year, but I think they will in time.

Michael Wacha has a career 2.61 ERA in the first month of the year. He's at his best early in the season. Wacha has good movement on his pitches, and I expect him to continue to be a solid starter for the Cardinals.

Marco Estrada is past the prime of his career, and I think there will be some value in spots to fade him this year. 

The Blue Jays are in a brutal scheduling spot here. They played late Monday night in Anaheim before traveling to St. Louis to play the well-rested Cardinals. Toronto is without Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki here. 

The oddsmakers are underrating this St. Louis team. The spot for Toronto and their injuries make this a really good value.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dylan Covey only pitched six games above the High A ball level of the minor leagues, and yet he is somehow in the White Sox starting rotation. It makes little sense to me. Covey was tatooed for 8 runs in his last start against the Yankees. As long as he is in the rotation, I think we should assume he'll have a lot of bad games. Covey walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in Double A last year, and he's struck out only 1.74 batters per nine innings so far this year. 

The Royals offense isn't good, but I think any big league offense should get a lot of chances to score against Dylan Covey.

Danny Duffy is a quality pitcher, but the White Sox are going to be good against lefties this year. Several guys on this roster are much better against south paws than right handed pitching. 

The over is 4-1-2 in Duffy's last 7 road starts. There is early sharp money on the over, and I'm going to agree with them here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Who is Wade Miley to be laying this kind of price against anyone? Miley has finished with a 4.34 ERA or higher in each of his last 3 seasons. So far this year, Miley has a 1.89 ERA. That will change in the near future. Whether it will be in this game or not is harder to predict, but given this price I'll take the Rays.

Miley has stranded a ridiculous 91.6% of baserunners this year. 70% is a decent long term average, so you can see he is due for regression here. Additionally, batters have a .162 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Miley. The average is close to .300, so batters have been hitting it right where the defense is against Miley so far this year. This is something that has to regress over time.

Erasmo Ramirez has great numbers against this Orioles lineup. Baltimore's hitters have a combined .221 average and .243 OBP against Ramirez. 

Tampa Bay is better against lefties than righties. I'll take the high price here.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox aren't a very good team, but they will hit left handed pitching better than right handed pitching. They have several guys in their lineup that are much better against lefties than righties. 

Jason Vargas has some amazing stats so far this year for the Royals. I don't expect him to be able to keep them going. Vargas has proven himself over the years to be a mediocre pitcher. Not very many guys undergo this kind of transformation when they are 34 years old. Regression is coming for Vargas.

The Royals are a team I'm looking to fade this year. This Royals offense is terrible. Kansas City's bullpen is no longer a strength either. 

The White Sox are 4-0 in Miguel Gonzalez's last 4 starts. The Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 road games. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. A 20-0 angle. 

Take the White Sox. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* Max Scherzer has absolutely dominated the New York Mets in his career. Scherzer has an amazing 1.83 ERA in 69 innings pitched against the Mets in his career. Even more impressive, Scherzer has allowed only three earned runs in his last 35 and 1/3 innings pitched at Citi Field. 

Scherzer is dialed in to start the season. His velocity is excellent and his command has been even better than in previous years.

Zack Wheeler has a lot of potential, but this is a guy who has been hit hard by the Nationals in his career, and he is still working his way back from an injury. His career ERA against Washington is 5.05. 

The Nationals have the better pitcher, bullpen, and the better lineup.

Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. They are 6-0 in Scherzer's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 0-4 in Wheeler's last 4 home starts. The Mets are 0-4 in Wheeler's last 4 home starts against Washington as well. A 25-0 angle. Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers -1.5* The Texas Rangers have Yu Darvish on the mound here. Darvish was really disappointed after his last start, and I think we'll see him pitch much better here. He has elite stuff, and he throws his best at the beginning of the season.

Darvish has a tremendous 2.54 ERA in the first month of the season in his career. The Rangers offense is due to hit much better. There are several guys in this lineup that are way too good to keep struggling the way they have so far. 

Kansas City's Jason Hammel is a mediocre pitcher and he's backed by a bad offense and a bad bullpen. 

Look for the Rangers to run away with this one.

Take Texas -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pittsburgh Pirates are significantly better against left handed pitching than righties. Jordan Montgomery is a decent prospect for the Yankees, but I see this as a tough spot for him. He faces a lineup that makes a lot of hard contact against lefties, and he doesn't have good secondary pitches.

Ivan Nova has been in great form so far this year. Nova has a 2.25 ERA so far this year, and a FIP of 2.90 suggests it hasn't been all about good luck by any means. Nova hasn't walked a single batter so far this year. That kind of control makes a huge difference.

The Pirates are 12-5 in their last 17 games against left handed starters. The Yankees are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star Play on Miami Marlins ML* When I can fade Jered Weaver for just a little more than even money, I'm usually going to do it. I'll take the Marlins here. Straily is a decent pitcher. I rate him at about a big league average starter. Jered Weaver is one of the worst starters in all of baseball.

A guy like Weaver with an 81 mph fastball has to hit his spots perfectly every single time, because no one is worried about him blowing it by them. 

San Diego is also at a disadvantage in the bullpen. The Miami bullpen has some good youngsters who I expect to develop into very good relievers. 

The Padres also have a much weaker offense than the Marlins. I expect the Padres to be the worst team in baseball this year. Miami isn't a good team, but the Marlins should be competitive and be close to .500 on the season.

The Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. the NL East. I'll fade Weaver here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the game today. He'll help both young pitchers in this one. Jharel Cotton has a really high upside, and he is a guy who can be really tough to hit if he gets ahead in the count. Look for him to be ahead in the count more often with a strike caller like Ripperger behind the dish.

Ariel Miranda isn't a special pitcher by any means, but the Oakland A's offense should be one of the worst in the majors this year overall, and they are worse against left-handed pitching than righties. Miranda has enough pitches in his repertoire that he can likely keep the A's to a small amount of runs here. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Cotton's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-1 in Miranda's last 5 starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers are much better against left handed pitching than righties. They'll face a subpar lefty in Adalberto Mejia on Saturday afternoon. 

Mejia has struggled with his control early in the season, and the Tigers should be able to make him work here. The Tigers got Justin Upton back in the lineup on Friday night, and Detroit is loaded with really good right-handed bats. 

Matt Boyd pitched really well in Triple A last year, and he pitched well late in the season in the majors. He has continued that strong performance into this year. Boyd has a solid 3.77 ERA on the year. Boyd has held Twins hitters to a .202 average in 84 career at bats. It's a small sample size, but it is a nice bonus.

This price is too cheap. Detroit is 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left handed starter.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Toronto Moneyline* The Toronto Blue Jays are certainly a weaker team with Josh Donaldson out of the lineup, but they are still definitely better than they have shown. I think it could do them some good to get away from home right now. Sometimes when you are losing on a consistent basis, getting away from the pressures of playing at home can help a team turn things around.

The Angels are a team I have rated a little lower than the Blue Jays. Alex Meyer is a guy who walks a ton of hitters, and that's a guy I can't lay big money with. Mat Latos isn't a pitcher I love either, but this is a nice price grab on the team with the slightly better bullpen and at least equal offense (even without Donaldson). The Angels have stars, but they don't have depth in the lineup.

I'll look to take advantage of the oddsmakers finally getting too low on this Toronto team. Grab this plus money price.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle Moneyline* The Seattle Mariners are a much better team than they have shown so far this year. Seattle is 1-7 on the road so far this year, and that's why we are getting this price. 

Still, Seattle is the much better team. Oakland has one of the worst offenses in the majors. Sean Manaea is definitely a good young starter for the A's, but the Mariners will be one of the best offenses in the majors this year against left handed pitching.

The Mariners are a perfect 5-0 in Hisashi Iwakuma's last 5 starts in Oakland. Iwakuma has a career 3.12 ERA in Oakland.

The bullpens here are pretty similar. The offense of Seattle is so much better though, and I think this game should be at least even money. Grab the nice plus money price on the Mariners.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers Moneyline* The Diamondbacks are in their first game back from a road trip, and this can be a tough spot for teams. Arizona is better than they were last year, but they aren't as good as their record would indicate. At the same time, the Dodgers are definitely better than their record would indicate. 

Alex Wood is more than serviceable and the Dodgers bullpen behind him is one of the best in the majors. Taijuan Walker has potential but he has had issues with the long ball in the past, and Chase Field with the roof open is a hitters paradise.

The Dodgers lineup is excellent against right handed pitching. The price is depressed too much for me to pass on this one.

Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have both been struggling to score runs of late. While Coors Field is obviously a great hitters park, the weather conditions here for Friday night's game aren't conducive to the ball carrying. The temperature will be in the mid 40's and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph.

Johnny Cueto has a dazzling 2.43 ERA in six career starts at Coors Field. That's one of the best marks you'll ever see from a pitcher with a lot of innings at Coors Field. Cueto has allowed only four runs in his last 22 innings pitched at Coors Field.

Tyler Chatwood has an amazing 2.55 ERA against the Giants in 74 career innings. In two of his last three starts against the Giants, the Giants finished the game with zero runs.

This total is high considering the situation and the pitching matchup. Also, Carlos Gonzalez is questionable for this game.

Some big trends pointing to the under here. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 8-0 in the Rockies last 8 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 during game one of a series. The under is 4-0 in Chatwood's last 4 starts. A combined 41-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker MISTAKE* The San Francisco Giants have underachieved so far this year. Colorado has overachieved thus far. This is the time of the year where you can start taking advantage of overreactions to results from the first 15 or 16 games of the season. 

Johnny Cueto is a top 20 pitcher in the majors. Tyler Chatwood isn't even a top 100 pitchers in the majors. This is a pitching mismatch. While Chatwood has been great on the road, he has a 4.93 ERA at Coors Field in his career. 

Cueto has allowed only 4 runs in his last 22 innings pitched at Coors Field. He has a career 2.43 ERA at Coors Field.

Carlos Gonzalez is questionable with an injury here. The Giants have Buster Posey back in the lineup now. The Rockies have a .201 average this year against right handed pitching. 

I think this line should be about 20 points higher. Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star Play on Detroit* The Detroit Tigers start Justin Verlander here, and I think he'll stop their recent losing streak. Verlander was rocked in his last outing in Cleveland, but he has a good track record against the Twins. In 9 career starts at Target Field against the Twins, Verlander has a stellar 2.35 ERA.

Hector Santiago isn't nearly as good as he has pitched so far this year. Santiago has been a below average pitcher through his career.

Santiago has been extremely lucky. That can be seen through opponents .222 batting average on balls in play against him. Compare that with Verlander's .340 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and you can see who has been lucky and unlucky so far this year. They should regress to the mean.

The Tigers are excellent against lefties. Detroit is 7-0 in their last 7 games against left handed starters. The Tigers are 7-2 in Verlander's last 9 road starts against Minnesota. 

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs -1.5* The Chicago Cubs have clearly underachieved so far this year. This team is going to be amazing once again, and their prices have come down slightly. The Cincinnati Reds are overachieving in a big way, and I do not expect that to continue. This Reds team has way too many problems to be an above .500 team. 

Jon Lester is one of the most consistent lefties in the game, and the Reds struggle against lefties. In each of the last four years, the Reds have finished with a lower average against lefties than righties. They are 16-35 in their last 51 against left-handed starters. 

The Cubs are 8-1 in Lester's last 9 starts vs. the Reds. The Cubs are 86-41 in their last 127 against the NL Central. 

The Cubs are better in every facet of the game.

Take the Cubs -1.5. 

*4 Star Play on Arizona Moneyline* The Arizona Diamondbacks are a much better team than the San Diego Padres. Anytime I can get Arizona at this cheap of a price against the Padres, I'll have a hard time passing it up.

In this particular matchup, Clayton Richard toes the rubber for the Padres. Richard has a long track record in the majors, and there's nothing that suggests he'll be able to keep his 3.60 ERA for very long. Richard is a worse than average lefty, and he is facing a Diamondbacks team that excels at hitting left-handed pitching.

Arizona finished in the top three in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties last year. They should finish near the top again this year.

Patrick Corbin definitely has a higher upside than Richard, and he gets to pitch in a park that is kind to fly ball pitchers here. 

Take Arizona at this low price. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Houston Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound on Thursday. McCullers is a guy with a really high upside. I think he has the stuff to be an All Star every year and contend for a Cy Young award. McCullers has a career 2.18 ERA at home. 

The Angels lineup isn't deep. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and Albert Pujols is hitting the ball well, but in general this team isn't very good down the order.

Matt Shoemaker starts here for the Angels. Shoemaker is the Angels best pitcher, at least in my opinion. He has a deceptive delivery and mixes up his pitches well. The Astros offense is missing Carlos Correa right now, and he is considered doubtful for this game. 

Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my umpire spreadsheet says he is a decent under umpire. It's a Wednesday get away day game and that's definitely a positive for the under as well.

Take the under big! 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers are terrible against left handed pitching. This offense is one of the best in the majors against righties, but against lefties they are a bottom six or eight offense in baseball.

Tyler Anderson has a solid track record in the minors and in the majors last year, and I expect him to pitch better than he has shown so far this season. Look for positive regression on the way for Anderson.

Clayton Kershaw dominates the game like no other pitcher. Kershaw is at his best at Dodger Stadium and this Rockies lineup isn't completely healthy right now. They are better against right handed pitching as well.

The under is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 20-9 in the Dodgers last 29 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Zack Greinke has a superb 1.90 ERA in 10 career starts in San Diego. Greinke loves pitching in this park, and the Padres have what I believe is the worst team in baseball this season. 

Jhoulys Chacin starts here for the Padres. Chacin had a 7.71 ERA in spring training, and his ERA in the regular season so far is 7.80. His WHIP has been above 2 consistently through the spring and in the regular season. 

Arizona's offense is much better than the San Diego offense. Greinke gives them a massive advantage at the starting pitcher spot. The Diamondbacks bullpen isn't good, but the Padres pen isn't much better. This is a good value on the moneyline.

Arizona is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. I'll grab the Diamondbacks here as a play on Greinke and a fade of a Padres team that I expect to be awful all year.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on Detroit Moneyline* I like Chris Archer, so this isn't a game I had circled to play Detroit, but this line is too high to pass. 

I rate Detroit as the better team between these two. The Tigers have a much more powerful lineup, and I'll be surprised if they don't finish the year with a better record than Tampa Bay. Jordan Zimmermann had a down year last year due to injuries, but he has a long history of being a quality pitcher. I think we are grabbing the better team at implied odds of 38.5% of winning this game. 

Tampa Bay is 0-7 in their last 7 home games with Archer starting against a team with a winning record. Detroit is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The Rays are 0-4 in Archer's last 4 starts vs. Detroit.

An inflated price here. Take Detroit as a big dog. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have what is arguably the best lineup in baseball. Boston is going to score a ton of runs this year. The Red Sox are without Jackie Bradley Jr, but for the most part they are healthy again now after going through some nasty sicknesses for the first week or two of the season. 

Toronto's lineup isn't healthy. Josh Donaldson is the best player on this team, and he is out of the lineup due to an injury. The Blue Jays have started the season really badly, and it feels like this thing is unraveling really quickly on the Jays. 

Rick Porcello isn't a guy I'm really high on, but he's pitched into some bad luck so far this year. Porcello has good control and that's a lot more than you can say about Francisco Liriano. Liriano has always been shaky with his command and this year he is walking more than 7 batters per nine innings. That's really dangerous against a lineup like this.

The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. They are 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 Wednesday games. Toronto is 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. A 21-0 angle. 

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona* The San Diego Padres should be the worst team in baseball this year. San Diego has issues all over the place. Their starting pitching is just awful. I can't remember the last time I saw a major league team with starting pitching this bad. The Padres aren't good hitters either, and the defense is below average.

Jarred Cosart had a 6.00 ERA in 16 starts last year. Cosart has a 3.86 ERA on the season so far, but that won't continue. Cosart had an ERA of 4.09 and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of an ugly 6.07 in Triple A last year. 

Shelby Miller had some serious problems last year, but he looks like a better pitcher to me this season. Miller is much healthier and his velocity is back up. Miller no longer has the strange follow through that he had last season.

Miller has the potential to be very good this year, while Cosart doesn't.

A good price on the better overall team. Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Texas Rangers should be favored by more than this against the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday night. Yu Darvish takes the hill for the Rangers, and Darvish has some of the best stuff in baseball. If he can stay healthy, expect a really good season out of him this year.

The Rangers are 3-11 in Darvish's last 14 starts against Oakland, which is likely the main reason why this number is so short. I think this gives us an opportunity to take advantage of the low line. A trend like this needs to be taken in the correct context. Texas hasn't hit the ball for Darvish in those games. Darvish has held Oakland hitters to a career .211 batting average, so it hasn't been on him much of the time. A trend like the one listed above isn't likely to be predictive of future results when you find underlying stats like we have in this game.

Andrew Triggs is a soft tosser that relies on weak contact. The Rangers lineup is much better than the A's lineup, and the Rangers obviously have a big starting pitching advantage.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zach Wheeler certainly has potential, but with his kind of injury history and lack of work in the last few years, he is a guy I have to be cautious with.

Zach Eflin just doesn't have good enough stuff to be a good big league pitcher. Eflin struck out only 4.41 batters per nine innings last year. That's an extremely low rate, and his minor league numbers don't show a guy who will strike out many either. Combine that with the fact that Eflin has below average command and you have a guy who isn't very good.

These two teams have a history of scoring a lot of runs against each other. The over is an impressive 70-34-5 in the last 109 games between these two NL East foes.

Given the question marks at pitcher and the lack of a dominant bullpen for either team, I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The Marlins have Koehler slated to pitch this game. In his career, he has a 4.50 ERA on the road. Miranda, who is set to start for the Mariners, is a young pitcher who has been having control problems. His FIP is above 6 this year, which suggests he is fortunate to not have an ever higher ERA this year. I like the over given this combination of subpar starting pitching.

The over is 11-4 in the Marlins last 15 interleague games. The over is 21-7-2 in the Marlins last 30 interleague games. I think this interleague contest will be high scoring as well.

Take the over.

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* St. Louis is off to a really bad start to the season. I think they'll have a tough time turning it around on Sunday night. Michael Pineda is far better than his numbers from last year show. His stuff is good enough to be an ace, but he occasionally can't command his stuff and misses with one in a bad part of the strike zone. The Cardinals haven't been hitting right now, and I think Pineda racks up the strikeouts here.

Even more importantly, I don't trust Adam Wainwright at all here. Wainwright has a 6.35 ERA in his last 18 starts on the road. Wainwright is way past his prime, and he has started giving up the long ball way too often.

The Cardinals bullpen has quite a few question marks, while the Yankees unquestionably have one of the best bullpens in baseball.

This is a good price on the home team.

Take the New York Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians have two of the top offenses in the majors. Cleveland should be even better on offense than they were last year. The Indians have a great young leader in Lindor, and Carlos Santana is great at getting on base from the leadoff spot.

Detroit's lineup is excellent as well. Miguel Cabrera has hit into some bad luck in the early going. He's been ripping the ball all over the field, but hitting it right at people. He'll get it going, and so will Victor Martinez. Detroit will score a lot of runs this year.

Justin Verlander has a career 5.37 ERA at Progressive Field. Corey Kluber has a career 4.05 ERA against the Detroit Tigers. Both Verlander and Kluber have been at their worst from an ERA standpoint in the first month of the season over the course of their careers.

The over is 26-5 in the last 31 meetings between these two in Cleveland. The over is 6-1 in Kluber's last 7 vs. Detroit. The over is 9-4 in Verlander's last 13 starts vs. Cleveland. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two excellent young pitchers going against each other in this one. Lance McCullers and Sean Manaea are both guys I have ranked very highly. I think these guys will both have breakout seasons this year. Perception isn't high enough on them yet to have a really low total, but I think this one deserves to be at no higher than 7.

Manaea just struck out 10 in his last start at Texas, and that's a really tough place to pitch. McCullers has been great this year, and he's up against one of the worst offenses in the American League in the Oakland A's. 

The under is 19-7 in McCullers' last 26 starts. The under is 6-1 in Manaea's last 7 starts vs. an AL West foe. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles are 7-2 on the season thus far. Baltimore certainly has weaknesses, but their bullpen is one of the best in baseball and that's a huge weapon. Toronto's bullpen is below average, and they have very little depth in the pen.

Alec Asher starts for the Orioles here. He is considered a decent prospect. Asher doesn't have elite stuff by any means, but he does limit walks which is very important. Marco Estrada pitches for the Blue Jays. No doubt Estrada gives the Blue Jays an advantage at starter, but I don't think it's a huge one. 

Estrada is nearly 35 years old, and I believe he is past his prime. The Baltimore offense is underrated by many. Against right handed pitching, Baltimore is going to score a bunch of runs this year. This lineup is a deep one, and there is power throughout the order. 

How can a team playing as poorly as Toronto be laying -150 at most books? It makes little sense to me. 

Baltimore is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 on turf. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. They are 0-4 in Estrada's last 4 starts. Baltimore is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 25-0 angle. 

I'm taking the nice plus money price.

Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants are without Buster Posey right now, and there's no question he is the best hitter on this roster. The Giants lineup isn't great even with Posey, and without him this is a subpar lineup. 

Colorado's offense is banged up right now, and the Rockies aren't even close to the same team on the road offensively. 

Tyler Anderson has good stuff, and he has been good in his first couple years with the Rockies. I like his ability to induce weak contact and a lot of ground balls. 

Johnny Cueto has a career 2.22 ERA in 12 starts vs. the Rockies, so he has really dominated this team. Cueto has a great 2.61 ERA in his career when pitching inside AT&T Park.

Mike Everitt is the umpire here and he ranks in the top ten in the majors in strikes called in the last five years. A good under umpire.

The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a divisional opponent. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CRUSHER* I rate the Milwaukee Brewers as a little bit better team than the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds stormed out of the gates and now people are believing in them. I'm not. Cincinnati looks like a team that will come down to earth hard to me. 

The Reds have been working their bullpen hard so far this year. The youngsters in the pen have been good, but they'll hit some rough patches this year, and the Reds pen is very top heavy. 

Cincinnati's offense is a major weakness. They just don't have enough guys that get on base enough outside of Joey Votto. 

Scott Feldman is definitely a below average pitcher and he is known for not working deep into games. Tommy Milone isn't all that good either, but I rate him as slightly better than Feldman.

The Brewers lineup is definitely better than the Reds lineup. Milwaukee has some talented young hitters who should surprise to the upside this year.

At worst, this price should be even money, and instead we are catching a nice plus money price. Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Baltimore* The Toronto Blue Jays have scored 2 runs or less in six of their nine games this year. They are likely to be without star Josh Donaldson for this game. How does a team like that get favored by this much against anyone? 

Baltimore isn't a bad team. The Orioles have a great bullpen, and they can hit. Wade Miley isn't the best of starters, so that's a bit of a concern, but Toronto's offense is ice cold and is expected to be without their best player here.

Baltimore has a big bullpen edge and a better lineup. Aaron Sanchez is clearly the better pitcher, but this line is way too high.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play on Texas Rangers ML* Yu Darvish is one of the best pitchers in the American League. Darvish has some nasty stuff and can dominate at any time. The Angels are off to a hot start,  but I don't think they are a great team. Texas has a bad bullpen, but that is more than factored into this line. 

Yu Darvish has a career ERA of only 2.70 in his 8 starts in Los Angeles. Darvish also has some great day/night splits. Darvish has a solid 3.51 ERA at night, but his day ERA is a stunning 2.74. 

Ricky Nolasco is no ace, and the Rangers lineup is better than the Angels. This price has been changed too much by recent events from the Rangers blowing big leads. 

If you want to try to avoid the Rangers bullpen, a decent way to do that is play part of this bet as Texas Rangers on the first 5 innings instead of all of it on the whole game. 

The Rangers are 6-1 in Darvish's last 7 road starts against the Angels.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is getting healthy, and I expect big things from them this year. Chad Kuhl doesn't have very good stuff. Kuhl is going to get hard by a lot of teams this year, and I think Boston will be one of them. 

Eduardo Rodriguez is very inconsistent, and the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is excellent against lefties. Pittsburgh has some major split differentials against lefties vs. righties, and that is something to keep in mind going forward this year. 

Another key factor here is the conditions at Fenway Park. The weather is helpful for the over. The temperature will be 60 degrees with the wind blowing out at 12 mph during the afternoon. The ball should fly well.

Two way above average offenses and two suspect pitchers. I'll take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox are starting to get healthy on offense. Hanley Ramirez, Xander Boegarts, and Mookie Betts are all back in the lineup. That makes a huge difference, and Boston put up 8 runs last night. 

This Boston lineup is one of the best in baseball, and they are scoring to score a bunch of runs this year. Baltimore starts Ubaldo Jimenez here, and Jimenez puts way too many guys on base for my liking. He has an ERA above 6 at Fenway Park in his career as well. 

Steven Wright has been much worse at home than on the road, and this Baltimore offense is definitely above average.

Adrian Johnson is the umpire here and he rates in the top ten over umpires in baseball in my umpire database. The wind will be blowing out at about 14 or 15 mph during this game as well, which certainly helps.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* The Cleveland Indians are coming off an ugly series in Arizona. They want nothing more than to take care of business in their home opener on Tuesday. I think a day off on Monday was good for them, and I expect them to be in good shape here on Tuesday afternoon.

There are mismatches are all over the place in this game. James Shields skated by in his first start, but his peripherals were bad in that game. He's 35 years old and his stuff has declined rapidly. I expect another bad season from him. Carlos Carrasco has great raw stuff and I was impressed with his first start of the season in Texas. 

The Indians lineup is better than it was last year, and they clearly have the lineup advantage here. The Indians have one of the best bullpens in baseball, while the White Sox bullpen is mediocre.

Good situation here with the Indians coming off an ugly series and facing a very weak starter.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* There has been some serious sharp action on the over, and I think that makes a lot of sense. Detroit is going to be one of the best in the majors against left handed pitching this year. Hector Santiago is one of the weakest left handed pitchers in the majors. 

Matt Boyd is a below average pitcher as well, and the Twins offense should put up a lot of runs this year. 

Both bullpens are way below average, so I expect a lot of scoring chances late in this game. 

I'm tracking over 1,000 bets so far in this game and 70% of the bets are on the over, but a whopping 99% of the money is on the over.

The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the AL Central.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I'm following a long-term system that has been strong for overs in the first month of the season. When the total is 9 or lower and the temperature is 65 degrees or higher with a wind blowing out at least 7 miles per hour, the over is hitting at an amazing 63.4% in the last ten seasons. This game fits with a total of 8 and a forecast of 73 degrees with the wind blowing out at about 12 mph.

Adam Wainwright had a 7.16 ERA in the first month of the season last year. Wainwright also had an awful 6.18 ERA in 17 road starts last season. He isn't a terrible pitcher now, but he isn't even close to the ace he once was. 

Tanner Roark doesn't have dominating stuff, and I expect his numbers to move backward a bit this year. Without a dominating pitch it is hard to sustain the kind of numbers Roark had last year. 

This Cardinals offense is coming off a terrible performance on Sunday and I expect much better from them here. The Nationals are improved on offense from a year ago.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Underdog PERFECTION Play* The Arizona Diamondbacks have started the season red hot. I don't think this team is nearly as good as they are playing right now, but I do think they'll be a good team to back against left handed pitching this year. Arizona was top three in the league in weighted on base average against left handed pitching last year. 

The Diamondbacks face a mediocre lefty in this one. Matt Moore doesn't have good swing and miss stuff, and I expect Arizona to hit the ball hard throughout this one. 

Taijuan Walker walked only one and struck out 7 in his first start of the season. Walker is healthy after being injured badly all year last year and trying to pitch through it. Walker appears ready for a breakout season.

The Giants are at an offensive disadvantage here and the Giants are one of the few teams who might not have a bullpen advantage against Arizona.

Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 against a lefty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. The DBacks are 5-0 in their last 5. They are also 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. A 25-0 angle. 

Take Arizona at this nice plus money price. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the series finale on Sunday afternoon. There haven't been many runs scored in the first two games in this series. No one would have expected 2-1 and 4-2 finals at Coors between these two teams. I don't necessarily expect this game to be that low, but I do think 11 is way too high considering all the factors that go into this one.

The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is MUCH better against right handed pitchers. Tyler Anderson is a good young lefty for Colorado. Anderson had a great 3.54 ERA and a 3.59 FIP last year. That suggests there was no luck involved in his strong season. Anderson had a stellar 2.45 ERA in day games started last year. Anderson also had an amazing 1.83 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers. 

Kenta Maeda starts for the Dodgers. He's great at getting soft contact, and that works to his advantage here. The Rockies have some key offensive pieces banged up now as well. Maeda has only allowed 4 runs in 17 innings pitched at Coors Field. 

The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 starts vs. a team with a 50% or higher win percentage. The under is 4-0 in Maeda's last 4 starts vs. Colorado. The under is 4-0 in Gary Cedarstrom's last 4 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle.

Take the under big. TOP Rated Total of the WEEK 

*3 Star Play Under* Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. I track umpires extensively and Kulpa is a big time strike caller. He loves ringing up batters on questionable pitches, and that definitely helps the under in a big way.The under is 211-157 in his last 368 games behind home plate (57.1% unders).

Sean Manaea is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He is going to have a breakout season soon, and it won't surprise me if it is this season. He'll be dealing with a Rangers offense that is without Adrian Beltre. That's key since Beltre is the team's best hitter against lefties.

Martin Perez isn't all that good, but this Oakland offense isn't very good either. Perez has pitched his best in day games, and he'll be helped a lot by Kulpa behind the dish.

Give me a number this high with Kulpa behind home plate and I almost have to take it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Totals that are set relatively low have been very good over bets in the month of April in the last few years. 

Let's take a look at a situation that fits this game perfectly. Games totaled at 9 or less where the temperature is at least 65 degrees (77 projected for St Louis Sunday) and the wind is blowing out at least 10 miles per hour (the forecast calls for 20 mph wind out here) have gone over the total at a clip of 60-35 (63.2%) in the past ten years. 

It helps that we get Andy Fletcher behind the plate. Fletcher ranks in the bottom ten umpires in the majors in strikes called in the last three seasons. 

Scott Feldman is a way below average pitcher, and this Cardinals lineup will be one of the best in the National League. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rays* The Toronto Blue Jays start Marco Estrada here. I think he is past his prime, and he was never quite as good as his ERA suggested either. Estrada has benefited from some very low batting average on balls in play for his opponents the last couple seasons. 

Jake Odorizzi continues to improve and he has been much better at home than on the road in his career. Odorizzi does a nice job keeping the ball down, and that helps against Toronto's home run hitters. 

The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Estrada's last 4 starts vs. Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is much better than they were a year ago, and the Blue Jays are definitely down from last year.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB DOG of the Day PERFECTION* The Detroit Tigers are home underdogs on Sunday against the Red Sox, and I like the value on Detroit here. 

Detroit starts Daniel Norris in this one. Norris has a really high upside. I like the progress he made last year, and he is a guy I'll look to buy low when I get chances this year. Boston obviously has a good lineup, but they have key guys out. Hanley Ramirez is sick with the flu and will miss this game. Xander Boegarts is on the bereavement list and he'll miss this one. Mookie Betts is probable, but he is still less than 100% with the flu.

Rick Porcello is definitely overvalued right now. His Cy Young award last year has led many to rate him far higher than he should be rated. Porcello is a pitch to contact guy and he isn't even close to one of the top ten pitchers in baseball. Detroit is an above average offense.

The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-7 in their last 7 road games. Boston is 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. Detroit is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The Tigers are 4-0 in Norris' last 4 Sunday starts. A 27-0 angle.

Take Detroit. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play Oddsmaker ERROR* The Houston Astros have been excellent with Dallas Keuchel on the mound at home. Keuchel had a down year last year, but his advanced statistics suggested he was very unlucky last year. I expect him to be much better this year.

Even with Keuchel pitching poorly last year on relative basis, the Astros are 27-8 in his last 35 home starts.

The Kansas City Royals aren't even close to as good as they were a couple years ago. The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball now instead of one of the best. Houston has one of the better bullpens in the majors.

Houston definitely has the better lineup, with power and speed throughout the order. The Royals lineup is very weak at the bottom of the order.

The Royals are 0-4 in Danny Duffy's last 4 road starts.

This price is too cheap. Lay the price with the home team.

Take Houston big. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* R.A. Dickey starts for the Braves in this one. Dickey isn't the worse pitcher you'll find, but he is below average at this stage of his career. The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup should be very good this season. Look for Pittsburgh to have a lot of runners on base against Dickey.

Chad Kuhl starts for the Pirates. Kuhl has below average stuff and relies heavily on limiting walks. This Atlanta lineup is better than most believe. Look for the Braves to score more runs on a consistent basis this year. 

Both of these bullpens are worse than the league average, so runs late in the game should be expected. Tom Hallion is the homeplate umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kevin Gausman has a superb record against the Yankees in his young career. Gausman has an ERA below 2 against the Yankees, and much of that sample was against a much better Yankees offense than this year's version. Gausman has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him. 

Masahiro Tanaka has been very good against the Orioles in his career as well. Tanaka ranked in the top five in the American League in many key pitching statistics last season. 

These are two of the top five bullpens in baseball, so I expect the offenses to have a hard time scoring late in this contest. Gibson is the home plate umpire here and he rates as a solid under umpire. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox are going to be missing some very key pieces on Saturday afternoon. Xander Boegarts is out for sure as he is on the bereavement list. Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez are both listed as questionable with what the team is calling a severe case of the flu. Those are likely 3 of the 4 best Boston hitters, so there are a lot of questions for Boston in this one.

Detroit definitely hits left handed pitching better than right handers. Miguel Cabrera has started the season slow, but you know he's going to get his swing going. Cabrera is one of the best natural hitters in baseball history. Detroit has multiple players who have drastic splits as far as their talent versus right-handed and left-handed pitching.

Edwardo Rodriguez has a lot of questions surrounding him. He has potential but consistency has been a major problem through his young career. Jordan Zimmermann  had a down year last season but he was pitching hurt. He's healthy again this year, and I expect his numbers to improve once again. 

The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 versus a left-handed starter. The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 road games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 against the AL Central. They are 0-5 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. A 20-0 angle.

Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Shelby Miller has a lot of potential, but he also has a great amount of potential to get blown up. Miller has trouble with command both inside and outside the strike zone. While his velocity was up in the spring, he still was hit around. Until he proves he is back, I have to assume he'll get knocked around, especially on his home field.

Cleveland's offense should be even better this year with Encarnacion in the lineup and Brantley back from his injury.

Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open. The ball carries so well here in the thin air with almost no humidity. The roof will be open for this one.

Josh Tomlin pitches here for the Indians, and Tomlin's primary problem has always been the long ball. That would suggest he isn't a good fit for Chase Field with the roof open. Arizona's lineup will score a lot of runs at home this year.

Both pitchers give up a lot of big flies, and the ball will be traveling well in this one.

The over is 43-17-1 in the Diamondbacks last 61 home games. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Dodgers ML* This price is way too good to pass up. The Dodgers will have one of the best teams in the majors this year, and the Rockies are a mediocre team. Ryu is coming off an injury, but appears to be healthy. Kyle Freeland is just starting up in the big leagues, and Freeland is going to have a lot of growing pains this year.

I'm playing this one early because I expect the price to go up. Colorado is banged up badly, so I don't even think the Rockies have their normal offensive advantage in this game. The Dodgers have the better starter and the much better bullpen as well.

The Rockies are 29-61 in their last 90 games vs. a left handed starter.

Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Diego Padres should be the worst team in the majors this year. It all starts with a dreadful starting rotation. How bad is it? They have Jered Weaver starting as their fourth pitcher. 

Weaver was consistently throwing 83 mph last year on his fastballs. There are a good number of high school pitchers who throw harder than that, and most college pitchers throw harder than 83 mph. It's so hard to get big league pitchers out throwing at that kind of speed.

Weaver had a 5.06 ERA last year and a FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 5.62. That suggests he was even worse than his ERA. I don't expect him to be better this year.

The Dodgers have a really good lineup against right handed pitching, and I expect them to get to Weaver in a big way here.

The Dodgers have one of the top three bullpens in baseball, and they should support Brandon McCarthy and suppress runs from this subpar San Diego offense.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both Matt Moore and Taijuan Walker have had a lot of command problems in the past couple years. These are guys who can be wild inside or outside of the strike zone. Those are the type of guys that I want to take game overs with. Walks are far more important to how many runs are scored than most would think, and these guys are capable of walking a bunch.

Chase Field is one of the best parks for hitters in Major League Baseball. The ball flies so well here with the roof open as it will be for this game. The dry heat is excellent for ball flight. 

Both offenses have some pop to them. Arizona was among the top three in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties last year. 

Arizona has what I believe is the worst bullpen in baseball. The Giants bullpen is one of the bottom ten in the league.

The over is 40-17-1 in the Dbacks last 58 home games.

Take the over.