*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Felix Hernandez struggled earlier this year, but he has been throwing the ball significantly better since coming off the disabled list. Hernandez has improved his control quite a bit in his last few outings. The White Sox offense has been decent against lefties this year, but they are poor against right handed pitching.

Chris Sale has pitched into some bad luck in recent outings. If you look at his FIP from his last few outings, it has been 2.65 or lower in his last four straight outings. Sale has a great strikeout/walk rate of late, and that is very important to me. He'll face a Seattle team that is relatively weak against lefties. Kyle Seager is questionable for this one, and Nelson Cruz is less than 100 percent. While the White Sox pen is really bad, I'm counting on Sale to go deep into this one.

Vic Carapazza is behind the plate here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the game, so that is a big boost. 

The under is 16-7 in Sale's last 23 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Minnesota Twins appear to have packed it up for the season. Minnesota played some pretty good baseball for a stretch of time right around the All Star break, but they have been mailing it in of late. Now, they go to take on a Blue Jays team who has to be upset with losing a couple games to the Angels in their most recent series. 

Pat Dean is on the mound for the Twins here. Dean had a 5.56 ERA in 16 starts at Triple A this year. Dean has a 5.48 ERA in the majors so far. Dean only struck out 5 batters per nine innings in Triple A, and that's a big red flag. This Toronto offense is very good against lefties, and they will be even better now with Jose Bautista back in the lineup.

Francisco Liriano is a streaky pitcher and he pitched extremely well in his last start. The Blue Jays have a big bullpen advantage over the Twins, and they definitely have a big offensive edge. At plus money, I'm on Toronto -1.5 here. 

*5 Star MLB Moneyline TOP Play of the MONTH* The Cleveland Indians are coming off a really disappointing series in Oakland. Things don't get any easier for them here. They go to take on a Texas Rangers team that has been amazing at home this year.

Texas starts Cole Hamels in this game. Hamels is a guy who has consistently gotten much better late in the season. He pitches his best baseball this time of the year. The statistics definitely prove this one. Hamels has a career 3.52 ERA in the first half of the season and a 2.95 ERA in the second half of the season. August has been his single best month of the year in his career. 

Josh Tomlin starts for the Indians, and to say he has been bad this month is a major understatement. He has been getting rocked of late. In the month of August alone, 47.5% of the balls hit off Tomlin have been hard hits. Hitters are squaring up the ball really well against him, and that has meant a ton of home runs. Tomlin has allowed five home runs in his last two starts, and now he faces a power hitting team in a very hitter-friendly park. It's hard to see him slowing down this Rangers offense here.

The Rangers are 14-3 in Hamels last 17 home starts. They are 29-8 in his last 37 starts. I'm not one to lay this kind of price often at all, but I think it is still cheap in this spot. Take Texas big. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Miami Marlins start Tom Koehler in this one. Koehler has been pitching about as well as ever in his last several games. Koehler has always been much better at home. So far this year, Koehler has a solid 3.36 ERA at home (it was 3.29 last year as well). In his last six starts, he hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those games. In 4 of the 6, he has allowed one run or less.

Edinson Volquez is on the mound for the Royals. Volquez has been awful of late. He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in each of his last 5 starts. He has given up 6 home runs during this span as well. Volquez has allowed double the home run rate on the road as he has at home. He also walks more guys on the road than he does at home.

The Royals had a nice run, but the streak was broken last night, and the Royals are still getting too much love from the oddsmakers based on their recent run. The Marlins have a solid lineup even without Stanton.

50% of the tickets so far are on the Marlins, but 79% of the money, so this looks like a sharp play to me. I'll take the value price on the home team. Take Miami. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers are only 3 games back in the AL Wildcard race. They actually still have some chance in the AL Central at 5.5 back as well. Detroit's lineup is so good, and they are hitting the cover off the ball in Minnesota in this series.

I'm always cautious to take a play like this one that almost looks too good to be true, but I believe Minnesota looks like a team that is packing it in for the season. The Twins fought for a while, but now it is getting later in the season and the team appears ready for the offseason as much as anyone in baseball.

Daniel Norris and Jose Berrios are two youngsters who have a high upside, but they both have struggled in the majors thus far. In Berrios' only career start against Detroit, he allowed 7 runs in only 2/3 of an inning of work. That can't give him much confidence coming into this game. Norris has been somewhat better of late, and he knows he has a great offense supporting him.

The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 games in Minnesota. The Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 13-0 trend. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* James Shields has been absolutely abysmal of late. Shields has allowed a ridiculous 28 runs in just 14 innings pitched in his last four starts. Shields has walked 8 guys and struck out only five in those games. His game by game FIP has been 49.65, 12.81, and 12.15 in his last three starts. Those numbers look like numbers from a video game. 

While I don't count the Phillies as a good offense at all, they have certainly been better of late. The Athletics lit up Shields in his last outing, and the Phillies offense is about par with Oakland's offense. 

Jared Eickhoff is inconsistent for the Phillies, and the White Sox bats have woken up in the last few games. This is a hitters park as well.

Both bullpens rank among the worst in baseball this year, and I see runs coming late in this one as well. 

The over is 7-0 in the Phillies last 7 road games. The over is 6-0-1 in the Phillies last 7 after scoring 2 or less last game. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Texas Rangers have lost three games in a row. Texas needs to bounce back, and they have the right guy on the mound to do it in this contest. Yu Darvish has been tremendous on the year. Darvish has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in a single game this year. Darvish has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts on the year. 

While the Reds offense has been pretty good of late, I'm not confident this Cincinnati team can keep up their recent hitting. Outside of Joey Votto, I don't trust anyone in this lineup very much. Darvish is a big strikeout guy, and the Reds have a lot of free swingers in the lineup. 

Tim Adleman has left 88.4% of runners on base so far this year. That number isn't even close to sustainable. Adleman walks way too many batters, and this Rangers lineup should make him pay. Texas has gotten much better offensively over the course of the year.

The Rangers own a big starting pitching edge, a bullpen edge, and a big offensive edge as well. Take Texas on the run line to bounce back here. Texas -1.5 is the play. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Doug Eddings is the umpire behind home plate in this one, and that is great news for under bettors. Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than any other umpire in the majors in the past five years. He'll be helping both Tanaka and Iwakuma, who are guys who are already good at painting the corners.

Hisashi Iwakuma has thrown 15 innings with Eddings behind home plate in his career. In those 15 innings he has allowed only 7 hits and one run. He has fanned 14. Iwakuma has four straight quality starts, and he has only allowed 6 runs combined in those four starts. I expect another good outing from him.

Masahiro Tanaka has 0 walks and 29 strikeouts in his last four starts. Tanaka should benefit greatly from Eddings being behind home plate, because the statistics definitely say that Eddings like to ring guys up. Tanaka has held Seattle batters to a miserable .155 average in 71 plate appearances. 

The under is 4-0 in Tanaka's last 4 starts vs. the Mariners. The under is 5-1 in Iwakuma's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night. Madison Bumgarner will toe the rubber for the Giants. Kenta Maeda is on the mound for the Dodgers. 

Madison Bumgarner has a fantastic track record at Dodger Stadium. How good? Bumgarner has a 2.40 ERA in 90 innings pitched in his career at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers lineup has been good of late, but they are much worse against lefties than righties. In fact, the Dodgers have a .221 batting average against lefties and a .258 average against righties on the year.

The Giants offense has been really inconsistent this year. They are hitting .254 against right handed pitching. They are hitting .261 against lefties. Maeda has been very solid for the Dodgers in his first year.

There are a few good trends for this play. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is also 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers. The under is 4-1 in his last 5 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the MONTH* The Atlanta Braves offense was one of the worst in baseball through the All Star break, but they have been much better so far in the second half. The Braves offense actually ranks in the top half of the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. 

Arizona's offense has been solid this year. The reason this team is where they are is a pathetic rotation and an even worse bullpen. The over is 39-21-2 in the Diamondbacks home games so far this year.

In this game we have two of the worst bullpens in the game. The Diamondbacks have an unbelievably bad 7.25 ERA in the last month. That's nearly two runs worse than the second worst bullpen in the majors during that time span. The Braves bullpen ranks in the bottom ten in the majors in all key categories.

Rob Whalen has had a lot of trouble in the majors thus far, and he has been especially bad on the road. He has trouble with the home run ball, and Arizona can hit it deep at home. 

Archie Bradley has allowed 22 runs in his last four starts. Bradley has a career ERA of 5.43 at home. 

The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 road games. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more the previous game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in Bradley's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Arizona. A 54-0 angle. Take the over big! TOP Play of the MONTH

*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a great come from behind victory in Seattle, but this is still a bad team that knows they have nothing to play for the rest of the year. They had a long trip late last night back home from Seattle, so I don't think there is much in the way of home field advantage in this game.

Jimmy Nelson has been throwing the ball about as bad as anyone in baseball of late. Nelson has allowed 30 runs in his last 5 starts. He is walking a ton of guys of late. In fact, he hasn't allowed less than two walks in a game since June 21st. Nelson has a 4.31 ERA, but his FIP is 5.06. Nelson's swinging strike rate is a ridiculously low 6.9%. He isn't missing any bats right now.

Chad Bettis has a career ERA of 4.46 on the road. That's certainly not good, but it is much better than his overall ERA. Bettis allowed only one run in his lone start against the Brewers in his career (the start was last year). Bettis has a FIP more than a run lower than his ERA, so he has gotten some rotten luck this year.

The Rockies offense is rolling right now, and facing Nelson I believe they grab another win here.

Milwaukee is 2-12 in Nelson's last 14 starts. The Rockies are 7-1 in Bettis' last 8 starts. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Jason Hammel hasn't allowed a run so far in the month of August. In fact, he has only allowed 10 hits in his last 20 innings pitched. Hammel has been tremendous of late. He isn't going to shut down the Rockies at Coors, but his current form and the fact that he previously pitched at Coors Field regularly are both clear positives.

Jorge De La Rosa is 35 years old and his stuff has gotten much worse in the last couple years. De La Rosa has a 5.29 ERA and a 5.19 FIP on the year. While the Cubs are a good offense against both righties and lefties, they are definitely at their best against left handed pitching. Chicago has a .352 OBP against lefties and they are averaging 5.54 runs per game against lefties.

The Cubs have the much better bullpen and the better defense as well. At plus money, I like the Cubs on the run line. Take Chicago -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Kansas City Royals send Danny Duffy to the mound against the Minnesota Twins with Ervin Santana. Both guys come into this game throwing the ball really well. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. His strike zone is as big as you will find, and that will help both pitchers here.

How good has Duffy been? He has allowed 3 runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts! In the other start, he only allowed four runs. Duffy's control has been tremendous, and when you aren't putting anyone on base for free it certainly makes life easier.

Ervin Santana has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Santana has only 4 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last four starts. Santana has been better late in the season in his career, and his day ERA this year is much better than his night games ERA. 

The under is 36-14-1 in Miller's last 51 Sunday games behind home plate. The under is 5-0 in Duffy's last 5 home starts vs. the Twins. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The San Diego Padres rank seventh in the majors in the same category. Both of these teams are far better against lefties than righties. The DBacks average 5.53 runs per game against lefties, and the Padres average 5.56 runs per game against lefties. 

Petco is no longer the tremendous pitching park that it was in the past. In fact, this year alone it ranks in the top ten parks for hitters when it comes to park factors. 

We have two subpar lefties going in this game. Robbie Ray has a 6.00 ERA in four starts vs. the Padres in his career. Clayton Richard has a 4.16 ERA against the DBacks in his career.

Richard has a 5.75 ERA this year despite having been in the bullpen almost the entire time. The Padres lefty has lost some velocity, and I see him as one of the weaker lefties in the majors now.

Both bullpens are worn out after last night, and the DBacks bullpen has a 7.01 ERA in the past month.

The over is 35-17-2 in the DBacks last 54 vs. a lefty. The over is 6-0 in the Padres last 6 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB TGIF MONEYMAKER* The Pittsburgh Pirates were written off too soon by some people. The Pirates are coming off a terrific road trip where they won a series in LA and swept the Giants in San Francisco. They are now only one game behind in the NL Wildcard race. 

Pittsburgh has a good lineup. Starling Marte is an extremely good player who doesn't get enough respect. Andrew McCutchen has been quietly stepping up his game some in recent weeks. The Pirates best starting pitcher is Gerrit Cole and he makes the start on Friday night. Cole was hit around in Los Angeles on Saturday, but a closer inspection of his start tells an interesting story.

Cole gave up 6 runs in less than five innings, but his FIP in that game was 2.45. Why the huge discrepancy? Cole allowed opponents to hit an unbelievable .522 on batted balls in play. That's just an absurd number when you consider .300 or a little lower is average. Cole has now had a FIP of 2.74 or lower in six straight games. I'll consider last game a blip on the radar screen.

Tom Koehler has an ERA almost a full run worse on the road in his career. Koehler has a 5.73 ERA in two starts at Pittsburgh. Ironically, in his four overall career starts against Pittsburgh, his ERA is 5.73 there as well.

These two teams are headed in different directions right now. The moneyline is too expensive, so I'll grab the run line here. Take Pittsburgh -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets offense has been really bad in recent weeks. They were able to get the offense going a bit against the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff, but everyone hits well against the Diamondbacks. New York now has to go to a pitcher's park and take on one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Madison Bumgarner. 

Bumgarner is the ultimate stopper, and his team needs a big effort from him here. Bumgarner has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings pitched despite having to pitch against Washington and Baltimore in those games. 

Bumgarner has started 5 games in his career against the Mets, and he has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in those games. He hasn't allowed a single run in his last 15 innings pitched against the Mets (6 of them were this year). 

Jacob Degrom has been excellent of late also. Degrom has allowed 1 run or less in 7 of his last 9 starts. That's remarkable consistency from Degrom, and he has simply gotten stronger as the year has gone along. 

Degrom has started 3 games against the Giants in his career and he has allowed only 2 earned runs (a 0.84 ERA). He hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 14 innings pitched against the Giants.

Everything points to a very low scoring game in this one. The under is 6-1 in Degrom's last 7 road starts. The under is 6-2 in Bumgarner's last 8 home starts. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Baltimore Orioles are 39-18 at home this year, and we are getting them at just a little more than even money on the moneyline. This is just too cheap. Yes, the Orioles offense has slumped of late. They are still a very good offense against right handed pitchers though, and that is especially true when they are at home. 

Joe Musgrove has made a couple nice starts for the Astros, but I'm not totally convinced that everything will be smooth sailing for him. He was only mediocre in Triple A according to the advanced metrics, and Musgrove is very susceptible to the long ball. That's a big problem here since the Orioles have all kinds of power throughout their lineup.

Kevin Gausman is a totally different pitcher at home, and I expect him to pitch well in this one.

The Astros have been streaky all year, and they are under .500 on the road. Baltimore needs to bounce back after having been beaten by Boston in two straight. Look for them to get back on track here.

Baltimore is 4-0 in Kevin Gausman's last 4 home starts. The Astros are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter. An 11-1 angle. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Someone doesn't like the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox had to play on Monday afternoon in Cleveland for a one game makeup. They then traveled to Baltimore and won both games over the Orioles. Tonight's game was rain delayed and eventually called after six innings. Now, they travel to Detroit and have to play at 1:10 pm eastern. That's just a brutal schedule.

Clay Buchholz starts for the Red Sox here, and he hasn't been right all year. Buchholz has a 5.66 ERA and a 5.57 FIP. He is striking out only 5.57 batters per nine innings, which is easily a career low. Buchholz continues to put a bunch of guys on base with walks and hit batters as well. When you aren't striking people out, you really can't afford to be putting a lot of guys on base for free. Buchholz has an ERA of 7.08 in four starts at Detroit. 

Matt Boyd has pitched much better for the Tigers in recent outings. Boyd pitched very well (2.25 ERA) in Triple A for Detroit, and he has been inducing a lot more swings and misses lately. The Red Sox have to be worn out, and a couple key players could certainly sit this game out for Boston.

As of this writeup, the number of bets on the Tigers is around 50% of the overall bets on this game, but the Tigers have taken 87% of the money. This is a great situational play and I have to side with the sharp money.

Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Yu Darvish has been very good this year. Darvish has had a shortened season thanks to an injury, but he has been pitching as good as ever since he has been back. Darvish is striking out 11.60 batters per nine innings and his swinging strike rate is excellent at 12.8%. 

Oakland has been a team that has been difficult on Darvish in the past, but that means less to me now that the Athletics lineup is so much different than it was a year or two ago. Darvish has a 2.77 ERA and his advanced metrics are all excellent so far this year.

Sean Manaea has allowed 3 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has a really high upside, and I like to see his swinging strike rate up at 11.6% like it currently is on the season. 

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and the under is a massive 72-35-5 in his last 112 games behind the plate.

The under is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the A's last 5 road games vs. a home win percentage of 60% or higher. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates have won the first two games of this series. The Pirates now go for the sweep, and we are getting a better price than we should because of the "avoid the sweep" theory. I don't necessarily make a habit out of betting teams who are looking to sweep on the road, but when the price is this good I can't pass it up. The Pirates are in much better form than the Giants right now.

Buster Posey played last night, but was noticeably limping when running, and a day off here for him wouldn't surprise me a bit in this day game. The Giants start Matt Cain in this game, and he has been really bad this year. Cain has a 5.47 ERA and a 5.29 FIP. The Pirates lineup is a good one, and I expect Cain to struggle here. Cain is walking too many guys and giving up the long ball way too often.

Ivan Nova isn't a bet on pitcher for me normally, but he has held the Giants hitters to a .138 average in 45 career at bats, and he's actually been more consistent than Cain this season. He's backed by the better offense right now, and at this underdog price, I'm on the Pirates.

The Giants are 7-17 in their last 24 vs. a righty. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games in San Francisco. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Pittsburgh Pirates have been playing some good baseball of late. They took 2 of 3 at home against the Reds. They then went to Los Angeles and took 2 of 3 against the Dodgers, who have been playing well also. 

Pittsburgh isn't out of the playoff race. The Pirates have a real shot at the Wild Card, and they are facing a San Francisco team that is playing poorly right now. Jameson Taillon starts for the Pirates here, and I like him quite a bit. Taillon has tremendous control. He has walked only 3 batters in his last six starts combined. He has struck out 32 during that same time. 

Jeff Samardzija has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts. He has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of his last 9 starts. The Pirates offense has been hot of late, and I don't see him cooling them down.

San Francisco is 7-19 in their last 26 games vs. a right handed pitcher. They are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a right handed starter. The Pirates are 6-1 in Taillon's last 7 starts. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Los Angeles Angels are tanking. The Angels have lost 11 straight games. Many of their top players have started to show discontent of late, and I wonder about the team chemistry in that dugout. Seattle is going the opposite direction. The Mariners have won 9 of their last 10 games.

I'm very surprised by the line the oddsmakers put out here. Ariel Miranda has been a pretty good pitcher in the minors. Miranda isn't likely to shut down the Angels, but I think he'll hold his own.

Jhoulys Chacin is one of my lowest rated starters in all of baseball. Chacin has been downright awful this year, and of late he has been even worse. Chacin has allowed 31 runs in his last 6 starts. Two starts ago he managed to give up 12 hits in 4 and 2/3 innings. Last game he allowed 7 runs in 1 and 1/3 innings. 

The Mariners have a big bullpen edge over the Angels, so I like our chances if it is close late as well.

The Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The Angels are 0-11 in their last 11. They are 0-4 in Chacin's last 4 starts. The Mariners are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 28-1 angle. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians will start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber has pitched really well of late. After a slow start, he is once again commanding his pitches really well. Kluber has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Kluber's strikeout rate has gone up in the past month, and he faces a White Sox team here that strikes out a lot against right handed pitching. 

The White Sox have really struggled offensively against righties this year. They are 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and they face one of the best right handed pitchers in baseball on Tuesday night. 

Jose Quintana is second to last in the American League in run support. The White Sox are averaging 3.2 runs per game in his starts. Quintana is a very underrated pitcher, and he has been amazing in Cleveland in the past. In 46 and 1/3 innings pitched in Cleveland, Quintana has a brilliant 1.17 ERA. 

The under is 6-0 in Quintana's last 6 starts vs. Cleveland. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. Cleveland. The under is 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the White Sox. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Oakland A's are 4-12 in their last 16 games vs. a left handed starter. Wade LeBlanc certainly isn't a top notch lefty, but he shouldn't have to be against the A's here. While I expect the A's to score some runs, I think the Mariners should be able to get to Zachary Neal in this game. Neal has struck out only 11 batters in 29 and 1/3 innings on the year. I don't think Neal is a big league pitcher long-term. He had mediocre numbers in the minors, and I look for Seattle to get to him in this one.

The Mariners also certainly have the better bullpen, so if the game is close late, I like my chances. At this price, I'm going to side with the much better team. Seattle is 8-1 in their last 9 games in Oakland. Take Seattle here. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oakland A's start Zachary Neal here and he hasn't been able to put anyone away all year. He has 11 strikeouts in 29 and 1/3 innings pitched. He had a FIP of well over 4 in Triple A, and I think his days in the majors are likely short lived, at least as a starter. 

Wade LeBlanc has a 4.74 ERA and a 5.64 FIP on the year. This is a guy who has never had much success in the past in the majors, and I don't really expect that to change in the long run either. LeBlanc faces an Oakland lineup that has been better against lefties than righties this year. 

The ball flies significantly better during the day in Oakland, and the wind is blowing out on Sunday. Mark Wegner is the umpire here, and he is a big over umpire. He has a small strike zone and the over is 20-7-2 in his last 29 games behind home plate. Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* I waited for the San Francisco lineup to be posted before making this selection. I wanted to make sure Posey and Pence were in the lineup, and they are so this is a play for me. San Francisco has Johnny Cueto on the mound here. The Giants are 18-5 in Cueto's last 23 starts. Cueto has been a little bit off of late, but he faces an Orioles offense that has been scuffling of late. 

Wade Miley is on the mound for the Orioles. Miley has struggled all season long, and he is definitely a much weaker starter than Cueto. While the Orioles are a very good team at home, they are just 26-34 on the road this year.

San Francisco is 19-7 in their last 26 games vs a left handed starter. They are 49-24 in their last 73 interleague home games. Take San Francisco here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jered Weaver is a really bad pitcher at this stage of his career. Weaver has no velocity and is striking out a measly 4.70 batters per nine innings this year. That's easily the lowest of his career.

The Indians offense ranks third in the majors in wOBA at home this year. They have really been putting up the offensive numbers on their home field. Jered Weaver has an ugly 5.22 ERA on the road this year. He has a 5.19 ERA overall this year, but his XFIP is 5.78, so if anything he has gotten some good luck this year. I think Cleveland puts up a big number here.

Trevor Bauer is really inconsistent. The Angels offense has been good over the last couple months, and Bauer is fully capable of getting shelled. In his career, Bauer has a 3.78 ERA before the All Star Break and a 5.30 ERA after the break. Bauer allowed 25 runs in 5 starts before shutting down Washington last start. I don't think his issues are fixed yet, and I see the Angels scoring several here.

Clint Fagan ranks 82nd out of 89 umpires in my database in strikes called in the past five years, so he is a good over guy. 

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles have been in a major offensive slump of late. They have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Add in the fact that they are much worse against left handed pitching compared to right handed pitching, and this looks like a good spot for Madison Bumgarner. The Orioles have a .269 average against righties and only a .234 average against lefties. 

Kevin Gausman has 4 very good starts in his last 5 outings. Gausman gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing at AT&T Park. The Giants offense has been inconsistent the whole year. 

The Orioles lose a hitter here in the NL park, and that's a positive for the under as well.

Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire because of his strikes called percentage long-term. He'll help both pitchers. 

The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 8-0 in Gausman's last 8 starts when the Orioles score 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins have been a tremendous over team all year. Minnesota is hitting the ball really well of late, and their pitching staff has been awful. What has that meant? Loads of overs. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 games. Why? Because one team has scored 6 runs or more in 9 of their 10 games. In fact, in 3 of the Twins last 10 games there has been a 10 spot put up by one side alone. The Twins bullpen has been used very heavily of late, and they are worn down.

Tyler Duffey has a miserable 7.22 ERA at home on the year. He threw a good game last time out against the Astros, but this guy has been as inconsistent as anyone in the majors, and expecting two straight strong games from him is a lot to ask.

Dillon Gee doesn't pitch deep into the game, and the Royals bullpen is a mess of late. Their middle relief isn't any good, and they have a ton of injuries in the bullpen. 

The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 6-0 in Duffey's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Gerrit Cole has been much better of late. Cole has very good high end stuff, and now that he is healthy again he is showing it very nicely. Cole has had a FIP of 3.14 or lower in nine straight starts. His strikeout and swinging strike rate has drastically increased since returning from the disabled list in July.

Brandon McCarthy is coming off Tommy John surgery. He looked pretty good in his first few games back, but something has been wrong of late. McCarthy hasn't pitched more than 4 innings in any of his last three starts. In his last two starts, he has walked five batters in each of those starts. I'm wondering if something is wrong with him since he is recovering from something so major. 

The Pirates are still in the Wild Card race, and Pittsburgh is 8-3 in Cole's last 11 road starts. The Pirates are also 4-0 in Cole's last 4 starts vs. the Dodgers. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Houston Astros are playing good baseball again. This has been a very streaky team all year. When they get hot, they can be really tough to slow down. Aaron Sanchez has pitched well this year, but he is getting too much respect here. He is due for some regression, and the Astros offense is hot once again. Collin McHugh is due for some positive regression. The Blue Jays offense is definitely good, but that is more than baked into this price.

The Astros have a clear advantage in the bullpen, and that is something that can't be overlooked here. This is a game where I believe the true odds should be something like -115 or -120 on the Blue Jays, which makes this price on the underdog a steal. 

Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Texas Rangers start Yu Darvish in this one, and when he is healthy he is absolutely one of the best pitchers in baseball. Darvish has made 8 starts this year and none of them has he allowed more than 3 runs. He has allowed more than 2 runs only twice. This Detroit offense is good, but they are a bit banged up right now. The Tigers are without Nick Castellanos and Cameron Maybin right now. 

Anibal Sanchez has been terrible on the road this year. His road ERA for the season is a miserable 7.38. Sanchez has declining stuff, and his decline has shown up the most on the road. Tonight, he pitches in Arlington where he has a brutal 12.34 ERA in three career starts. This Texas lineup is very deep, and I think they hit Sanchez hard tonight.

The Rangers bullpen actually ranks in the top five in the majors in the past month, while the Tigers bullpen is right at the league average.

The Rangers have all the advantages here. The Tigers are 0-8 in Sanchez's last 8 road starts. The Rangers are 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts vs. Detroit. The Tigers are 2-14 in Sanchez's last 16 starts overall. Take Texas -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees are coming off a series win at Boston. What's important to note though is that Boston series meant a lot more to the Yankees than this series at home against the lowly Rays. The Yankees aren't likely to make the playoffs after all the moves they made, and they know it, and they will get up for certain series' more than others right now.

Why would I look to back the Rays? I really like what I've seen out of Chris Archer lately. This looks like a guy who is getting his stuff back together again. Archer has 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. He also has allowed 3 runs or less in each of those starts. He has a FIP of 3.67 or lower in each of his last four starts. He has great raw stuff, and is getting things going again.

Archer also has a brilliant 2.18 ERA in six career starts at Yankee Stadium, so he loves pitching here.

C.C. Sabathia is going the opposite direction. Sabathia has allowed 5 runs or more in 6 of his last 9 starts overall. Sabathia has been giving up home run balls like crazy of late (6 in his last 3 starts alone). 

The Rays hit lefties very well, and they have a huge pitching advantage here. The Yankees are 0-4 in Sabathia's last 4 home starts. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies come into this game without Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds. This is a wounded team that came to Philadelphia on Thursday night after a long game. 

Philadelphia's offense has been one of the worst in baseball all year. They are hitting just .235 against right handed pitching this year. They are up against a very good righty in Jon Gray on Friday night. Gray has been inconsistent at Coors Field, but on the road he has been great. He has terrific stuff, and I expect him to pitch well against the Phillies for the second time this year.

Jake Thompson starts for the Phillies. Thompson is making just his second major league start. While the Rockies can be a tough matchup at times, he is catching them without a couple of their best hitters. The Rockies have once again been relatively weak offensively on the road this year as well.

The under is 6-1 in Gray's last 7 starts. The under is 8-3 in the Rockies last 11 road games. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Pittsburgh Pirates were shutout by Edwin Jackson last night. Edwin Jackson certainly isn't a guy the Pirates should be getting shut out by, and I think we see a nice bounceback here. 

The Pirates have been much better all year against lefties than righties. Pittsburgh has a .343 OBP against lefties and only a .323 OBP against righties. In this matchup on Thursday afternoon they will face Christian Friedrich, who is a subpar left handed starter. Friedrich has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts! 

The Pirates counter with Jameson Taillon, who has been great in his rookie season. Taillon's superb control is amazing for a rookie. Taillon has walked one batter total in his last five starts. During that time, he has struck out 28 batters. That is getting the job done. He's up against a weak Padres lineup here, and he should pitch very well.

The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a lefty. The Padres are 0-8 in their last 8 games following a win. I'm certainly not laying -185 or anything like that, so we'll take the run line here. Take Pittsburgh -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jaime Garcia is a totally different pitcher when pitching at home. Garcia has a career 2.79 ERA at home. The Reds have hit him around at Great American Ballpark, but he has consistently been very good against Cincinnati at home. 

While Cincinnati has been more competitive lately, it is primarily due to improved pitching. With Jay Bruce gone, there is no doubt that this lineup is weakened. Anthony Desclafani has a ton of talent and he has been remarkably consistent. In 8 of his last 9 starts he has a quality start. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of those 9 starts. 

Angel Hernandez is a good umpire to have behind the plate for this one, because he is a strike caller. He'll help both pitchers. Garcia has a 1.40 ERA in 3 starts with him behind the dish.

The under is 6-1-1 in Desclafani's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 18-6-2 in Garcia's last 26 home starts. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Tampa Bay Rays have a .332 OBP against left handed pitching this year. The Toronto Blue Jays have a .330 OBP against lefties on the season. Tampa Bay has been miserable against right handed pitching, but in this one they are against lefty J.A. Happ. 

The Rays have given J.A. Happ fits over his career. He has a 5.37 ERA against them. The current Rays lineup has a .322 average against Happ. Happ has a great win/loss record this year, but the advanced data suggests he is due for some regression.

Blake Snell has been tremendous of late for Tampa Bay. Snell has struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings pitched in four of his last five outings. The Jays have been striking out at a high rate of late.

There is no way the Jays should be a nearly -200 favorite here. I understand why they are favored, but this price is just too high. I'll take a chance on a big underdog here. Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Wily Peralta had a 6.68 ERA in 13 starts with the Brewers this year. He actually started the team's season opener, but then pitched so poorly he was sent down to the minors. Peralta proceeded to make 10 starts in Triple A. He has a 6.31 ERA in Triple A. Peralta can't get guys out at any level right now.

Tyrell Jenkins is a mid level prospect for the Braves. He might end up being a serviceable starter, but he should have a lot of growing pains. He has a 4.33 ERA and a 6.50 FIP so far this year. 

The Braves lineup has come alive somewhat in the last few games. They have scored 5 runs or more five times in that span. They also have an 8 and 13 run performance thrown in there. Against Peralta, they should score several.

The Brewers offense has been hitting the ball well of late, and the Braves have a subpar starter and a poor bullpen as well.

I look for plenty of runs here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins have a really good offense. Dee Gordon is now back and he's the table setter for a great group of young hitters. Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Derek Dietrich are having great seasons. Giancarlo Stanton is coming on a bit and hits left handed pitching really well. The Marlins have always been better against lefties, and Matt Moore is a vulnerable lefty.

Matt Moore has walked 10 guys in his last two starts. Putting guys on base like that will usually hurt you a lot against a deep lineup like the Marlins lineup. Moore is allowing 1.32 HR's per nine innings, and the Marlins have plenty of pop as well.

Tom Koehler is another guy that puts a bunch of runners on base. Koehler has the highest walk rate of his career this season. He has a SIERA of 4.89, and all the advanced metrics are low on him. Koehler is coming off a couple nice starts, which gives us a lower number here on the over.

The Giants lineup is getting healthier, and this offense is very capable of going on a tear.

The over is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 home games. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in the Marlins last 8 after allowing more than 5 runs last game. A 22-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Washington Nationals have value on the run line here. Max Scherzer has allowed 1 run or less in 8 of his last 12 starts. He has only allowed more than 3 one time in that span. He has been locked in of late, and I don't see any reason for that to change here. The Indians offense has been amazing at home this year, but they are 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. 

Trevor Bauer has always been an inconsistent pitcher. He had been throwing the ball well earlier this year, but of late he has struggled badly. Bauer has allowed 20 runs in his last 4 starts. Though he had been getting away with it before, there were signs of problems. In his last 7 starts, Bauer has a FIP of 4.07 or higher. I don't trust him right now.

The Indians bullpen is improved, but the Nationals still have the better bullpen. Big pitching edge here to Washington.

The Indians are 1-4 in Bauer's last 5 starts. The Nationals are 4-1 in Scherzer's last 5 starts. The Indians are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Run Line Play of the Week* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Julio Urias in this one. Urias has pitched into some bad luck this year. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of .378 against him so far this year. That should regress to the mean (around .300) over time. Urias has a FIP of 4.13 or lower in 7 of his last 8 starts. His last start was the lone bad one there, but that was at Coors Field so it is pretty understandable.

The Phillies offense hasn't been very good this year, and Urias has dynamite stuff. Also, this Dodgers bullpen is better than most believe. They've had a few blowups, but over the course of the season they have been good.

Zach Eflin has struggled badly this year. Eflin is striking out only 4.62 batters per nine innings. He also is giving up 1.34 home runs per nine innings. The Dodgers offense has been hitting the ball much better in recent weeks, and Eflin and this Phillies bullpen are unlikely to be able to quiet them here.

The Dodgers are 26-9 in their last 35 home games. Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Michael Fulmer has been excellent this year. I've made good money backing him and the Tigers, but I do believe he is due for some regression soon. Fulmer has been shaky in his last few starts. He has a FIP of 4.78 or higher in his last 3 outings. He has a 2.42 ERA for the year, but his FIP is 3.76 and his SIERA is 3.98. He is stranding 84% of runners on base, which has to come back to normal at some point.

Hisashi Iwakuma has terrible career numbers against this Detroit lineup. The Tigers have a .361 batting average and a .415 OBP against him. Iwakuma isn't the pitcher he was a couple years ago, and I see the Tigers getting to him here.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom six in the majors in FIP in the past month. 

Seattle averages more than 5 runs per game against right handed pitching. The Tigers average more than 5 runs per game against right handed pitching as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins have certainly played better baseball of late, but I believe they are getting a little too much respect here. Tyler Duffey has a 7.96 ERA at home this year. Duffey has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last four starts. Duffey has allowed 5 runs or more in 9 of his last 14 starts. The Twins bullpen isn't very good either.

Collin McHugh has a career ERA of 1.93 in the month of August. That is easily his best month in his career. That's not something I put a ton of stock into, but it is interesting and adds to my conviction here. McHugh has thrown the ball well lately in general, and he's backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball.

The Astros are 7-0 in McHugh's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The Astros are 4-0 in McHugh's last 4 starts vs. the Twins. A 16-0 angle. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers aren't giving Jon Gray enough credit here. Gray is turning into a very good starting pitcher. Gray has had a FIP of 2.56 or lower in four of his last five starts. Gray has only allowed one run in his last 12 innings pitched at Coors Field. This is a guy with a very high upside. 

Colorado has always been a good team at home. The Rockies have gotten hot at home of late. Colorado has won 7 of their last 9 home games. They have also won 5 of Gray's last 7 home starts. 

Adam Conley is the starter for the Marlins here. He's never made a start in Coors Field before. Starting in Coors Field is always tough, but the hot afternoon games are even tougher. This is a very tough spot for him.

Miami is 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 2-5 in Conley's last 7 road starts.

Colorado has the big starting pitching edge, and I'll lay the short price here. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers are way out of the running this year, and it will be a long last couple months for them. Matt Garza is coming off a pretty good start against Pittsburgh, but this is a guy who has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Garza's strikeout rate is at a career low.

Patrick Corbin has been a big disappointment this year. Corbin has a 5.30 ERA overall and a 6.91 ERA in 10 starts at home this year. Milwaukee is much better against left handed pitching. The Brewers have a .339 OBP vs. lefties compared to only .314 against righties. 

Both lineups have a good history against the opposing starter here, though Milwaukee hasn't faced Corbin often. 

John Tumpane is a bit of an over umpire and that helps as well. Another big help is the bullpens here. Milwaukee's bullpen is a subpar bullpen. The Arizona bullpen is now the worst bullpen in the majors.

The over is 13-3 in the DBacks last 16 home games. The over is 15-5-1 in Corbin's last 21 starts. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The St. Louis Cardinals got both Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss back in the lineup. Those are really key additions. Matt Carpenter is the team's most consistent and best overall hitter, and he sets the table for this offense. St. Louis is right in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, and they need every game at this point.

Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) pitches for the Braves in this one. Hernandez is almost 36 years old, and I see no reason to expect success from him. Hernandez had a 4.42 ERA in Triple A with the Blue Jays this year. With Atlanta's Triple A team he has a 5.52 ERA in three starts. Why should I believe he will get out big league hitters? With a healthy lineup again, the Cardinals have one of the best lineups in baseball.

Carlos Martinez faces what is one of the weakest lineups in baseball in the Atlanta Braves today. Martinez has a 2.99 ERA on the year, and he has been very good. Martinez has been best at night (2.77 ERA), and this one is a night game.

This is a mismatch all around. Lay the -1.5 with the Cardinals here. Take St. Louis on the run line. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Stephen Strasburg has started 20 games this year. The Washington Nationals have won 18 of those games. Of those 18 wins when Strasburg pitches, 14 of them have been by 2 runs or more. 

Matt Cain is the opposing starter here, and Cain has some serious problems. He was a very good pitcher a few years ago, but now he is nothing but a shell of his old self. Cain has a 7.48 ERA on the road this year. Last year, his road ERA was 6.27. Cain is occasionally able to throw a very good game at home, but it almost never happens on the road. 

Stephen Strasburg has taken the next step this year. He has been very good all year long. In the past, Strasburg was too inconsistent. Even in those inconsistent years (2010-2015), Strasburg had a very good 2.79 ERA against the Giants in seven starts. I expect another good start from him here.

The Giants are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a right handed starter. They are 5-16 in Cain's last 21 road starts. The Nationals are 39-14 in Strasburg's last 53 starts. Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star TGIF Red HOT CASH* It's a showdown between Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander here. Syndergaard is arguably baseball's best young pitcher, and Verlander dominated baseball for a long time himself. 

Verlander has turned back the clock in his last few outings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last six starts. There is little reason to believe the injury-plagued Mets lineup will be the ones to stop that streak. Verlander has a FIP of 1.71 or lower in 3 of his last 6 starts, so it hasn't been good luck, it has been great pitching.

Syndergaard hasn't quite bit at the top of his game the last few starts, but in his short career so far Thor has brought his best for the big games. This is a big game in that it is a much anticipated showdown for him vs. a great Detroit lineup and a Cy Young winner in Verlander.

The Mets offense is a mess now. The Tigers offense is very good, but Syndergaard has the dominant stuff to slow down any offense.

The under is 6-1-1 in Verlander's last 8 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been thumped in the first two games of this series. I like their chances of getting the third game in this series. Colorado has certainly been playing good baseball of late, but the Rockies have some injury concerns. Trevor Story is now out for the year and that is a significant loss. Carlos Gonzalez left yesterday's game with a minor ankle injury and he is questionable for this game also. 

The Dodgers offense has been much better in the past month, and they have a favorable matchup here. Colorado's Tyler Chatwood has been lights out on the road (1.30 ERA), but he has been terrible at home (5.69 ERA). Chatwood hasn't figured out Coors Field yet, and until he does I'll look to find value on the other side.

Kenta Maeda didn't give up a run in his first start at Coors Field this year. Maeda has been very good in his first season with the Dodgers, and he's backed by a pretty good bullpen.

The Dodgers are 9-4 in Maeda's last 13 starts. They are 5-2 in his last 7 road starts. The Dodgers are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. the NL West.

The price here is too short on Los Angeles. Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Marco Estrada has pitched very well this year. Estrada has a 3.02 ERA on the season. In his career, the Astros lineup has only hit .242 against Estrada. Houston's lineup has been very streaky this year, and of late they have been slumping.

Collin McHugh starts this one for the Astros. McHugh is a quality pitcher who is coming off a really bad start at Detroit. Before that start, he had a tremendous stretch of good starts. He pitches better at home and Toronto has several guys banged up right now.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire and he ranks second in my umpire database in strikes called percentage in the past five years. He loves giving pitchers the edge and that should help both of these guys a great deal.

Houston's bullpen has been tremendous and that is another reason I like this play. 

The under is 31-15-1 in the Astros last 47 games. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers are playing some really good baseball right now. Detroit is quietly within 3 games of Cleveland in the AL Central. The Tigers are now 30-19 at home this year, and they have won 7 straight games. 

Detroit's offense is one of the best in baseball when they are healthy, and they get JD Martinez back from the DL on Wednesday. That's a huge pickup, since Martinez is great power hitter who can really take it to lefties. Detroit has the personnel to stack up the righties and make things very difficult on the opposing starter. 

Chris Sale is obviously a very good starter, but he hasn't been as good of late. Sale had the much talked about problems with the jersey where he got suspended, and it appears he'd rather be somewhere else. Sale has had an XFIP of 4.92 or higher in each of his last three outings. 

Detroit's lineup has a very good .342 on base percentage against Sale in 240 plate appearances, so they have had plenty of success against him.

Michael Fulmer has been tremendous for the Tigers this year, and the White Sox are awful against right handed pitching.

Also, the Tigers have a big bullpen advantage in this one, and that could be key late in the game.

The Tigers are 14-2 in Fulmer's last 16 starts. The White Sox are 5-21 in their last 26 road games vs. a right handed starter. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's offense wasn't good to start with, and now they traded away Josh Reddick. Reddick was by far their best hitter, and he will be badly missed. When he went down with an injury earlier this year, the offense was a mess. I expect Oakland to be one of the worst offenses in the majors the rest of the season.

Matt Shoemaker's line from last outing against KC is misleading. He pitched very well for much of the game and was undone by some questionable calls and one big inning. Shoemaker has been amazing at home in his career (2.79 ERA). He has walked only 2 guys and struck out 19 in his last three outings.

Sean Manaea has been amazing in his last few starts. Manaea has huge upside potential, and he is starting to show it. He hasn't walked a single batter in his last four starts! He has a 4.57 ERA, but a FIP of 3.98.

The under is 3-0-1 in the A's last 4 following a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after giving up 5 runs or more. The under is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 following an off day. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in Shoemaker's last 4 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL West. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The Washington Nationals hit left handed pitching significantly better than righties. Washington averages 5.12 runs per game against lefties vs. only 4.53 against righties. 

Robbie Ray starts this game for the Arizona Diamondbacks. I don't necessarily think Ray is a bad pitcher, but he has struggled quite a bit at home. Ray has a 5.33 ERA at home in his career vs. 3.94 on the road. That's definitely an odd split, but he's thrown enough innings now to where it makes a difference to me. Ray is giving up a lot of hard contact of late. He isn't likely to pitch really deep into the game, and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the worst bullpen in the majors right now in my ratings. 

Tanner Roark is an underrated starting pitcher. Roark has a solid 3.29 ERA on the road in his career, and his 2nd half of the season career ERA is only 2.76. Roark will be facing a Diamondbacks team that struggles against right handed pitching. 

Arizona is 17-36 at home this year, so fading them at home against a good team like Washington is the way I'll go here. Arizona is also 16-37 in their last 53 games vs. a right handed starter. Washington is 6-1 in Roark's last 7 road starts. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dylan Bundy has an extremely high upside, and he has flashed his potential in his last two starts. Bundy has one walk and 13 strikeouts in his last two games. He has excellent stuff and I like his potential.

Yu Darvish has elite stuff as well. He hasn't been getting wins lately, but it isn't because he has pitched poorly. The Rangers haven't given him run support. Darvish has a 3.09 ERA, but his FIP is a really impressive 2.57. He is striking out 12.66 batters per nine innings, which is the highest of his career.

The Orioles offense is good, but they have been slumping of late. Until they come out of it, I'll look to find spots for unders on them. With the wind blowing in and two pitchers with great upside, I like this as one of them.

The under is 3-0-1 in Darvish's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in the Orioles last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 home games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Red Sox start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez in this game. Rodriguez was highly touted prospect who struggled early this year, but he recently went down to Triple A and changed up some flaws in his mechanics. Rodriguez has pitched better in his last three outings.

Seattle played the late game at Wrigley Field and lost a heartbreaker in extra innings on Sunday night. They might be a little sluggish in this game, and if anything I think that leads to a lower scoring game. The Mariners rank 20th in wOBA vs. lefties. 

James Paxton has had a bunch of bad luck this year. Paxton has a 4.76 ERA thanks to a very unlucky .376 batting average on balls in play. This is a guy who has a great swinging strike rate of 11.9%. Boston unquestionably has a very good offense, but I think Paxton can at least slow them down.

There has only been one game all year in Seattle with a total this high. Safeco is a great pitchers park and I think this number is just too high to pass up.

The under is 8-0 in the Red Sox last 8 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. The under is 6-0 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Seattle. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Washington Nationals have gotten a great season out of Stephen Strasburg so far this year. Strasburg has taken the next step that everyone was waiting on him to take. He has turned into a true ace. Strasburg has induced much more weak contact this year. He is still striking out about 11 guys per nine innings pitched as well.

Strasburg goes up against an Arizona team that is absolutely flailing right now. The Diamondbacks have nothing much to play for between now and season's end. Arizona is very good against left handed pitching, but they are poor against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are 17-35 at home this year. They are 7-22 in their last 29 games overall.

Archie Bradley is a subpar starter at this stage in his career and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen is currently the worst bullpen in the majors. Washington is a top 5 bullpen. 

Washington is 10-1 in Strasburg's last 11 road starts. They are 38-14 in his last 52 starts overall.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie BLASTER* The Boston Red Sox have scored 3 runs or less in 3 of their last 4 games. They'll face very talented youngster Tyler Skaggs in this one. Skaggs is a lefty who shutout the Royals in his first start back from an injury last outing.

Skaggs was a highly touted guy, and he appears to be realizing his promise now. Skaggs had 1.67 ERA in 7 starts in Triple A before shutting out Kansas City. 

Steven Wright has had a nice season, but he has been very fortunate with batted balls and runners left on base. He is due for some regression, and he faces an Angels team that has hit him well in the past. In 3 career starts vs. the Angels, Wright has a 6.61 ERA. 

The Red Sox are 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a left handed starter. The Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 home games. They are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. Boston. Take Los Angeles here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers have badly needed a starting pitcher. They traded for Lucas Harrell. Harrell isn't necessarily a bad starter, but he also isn't a fix to their problem. Harrell has been pitching in Atlanta and pitching better than expected, but things get much tougher pitching in Texas in the scorching heat and against better lineups. I don't expect Harrell to pitch as well moving forward.

Dillon Gee hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of his starts this year. Gee 4.54 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. Gee has always been a guy who struggles with the long ball, and that's dangerous in this park.

The weather forecast is ridiculous here. The game time temperature is expected to be 98 degrees. Home plate umpire Pat Hoberg is in my database as a small over umpire, and that helps also. 

Both bullpens struggle in the middle relief, and I think both starters will be out early. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here. He has five very good starts in his last six outings. Kluber was hit hard by the Toronto Blue Jays in his one bad start, but the Oakland Athletics offense will never be confused with the Blue Jays offense. 

Sonny Gray has been struggling a lot more this year, but his career numbers against the Indians are tremendous. Gray has pitched 28 innings against Cleveland and allowed only 2 runs. That's a 0.64 ERA. Gray also has a career 2.82 ERA in day games (3.60 at night), so this is a good spot for him. 

Helping both pitchers is home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt. He has become a good under umpire in the last few years. His strikeout/walk ratio is near the top, and the under is 9-1-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.

A relatively mild temperature and wind blowing in should benefit this play also. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a tremendous comeback win over the Arizona Diamondbacks last night. The Dodgers were down 7-2 in the 7th and came back to win 9-7. Manager Dave Roberts said after the game he believed that was probably the best win of the season for his team.

The Dodgers offense underachieved badly for the first few months of the season. Finally, the Dodgers offense has been very good in the past month. Los Angeles ranks fifth in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. 

Braden Shipley starts this one for Arizona. Scouting reports on him are mixed. The thing that makes me think he has limited upside, at least for the time being, is his strikeout rate in the minors. Shipley only struck out 5.81 batters per nine innings in Triple A.

Scott Kazmir is 11th in the majors in most run support this year at 5.55 runs per game. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 games and they have covered the run line in all four games. Take Los Angeles -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB RED HOT Cash* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani in this one. DeSclafani is a good young pitcher who has really put it together in the last couple months. He had a poor outing last time out against San Francisco, but before that game he had allowed 3 runs or less in six straight games. He'll be up against a Padres lineup that is an absolute mess right now. Melvin Upton Jr. was traded away. Solarte has been the most consistent hitter on the team, but he is away from the team right now. The Padres offense has been awful against righties all year (.226 batting average and .287 OBP), and here they are facing a good righty.

Christian Friedrich has some ugly minor league numbers in the last couple years, so it was a surprise when he started this year off nicely in the majors. He has come back down to earth quickly though. Friedrich has serious control problems. He has an ERA above 5 in each of his last 7 starts. It hasn't been just bad luck either. His FIP is above 4 in every single one of those starts. 

The Reds offense has been hot of late, and their bullpen is improved with Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, and Tony Cingrani stepping up of late. 

The Reds are 4-0 in DeSclafani's last 4 starts. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have the two worst offenses in the National League. They played to a 2-1 game on Friday night, and I'm looking for a second straight low scoring game in this one. 

Jeremy Hellickson isn't a great pitcher, but he does have a history of quieting weak offenses. Hellickson gives up a lot of fly balls, which isn't a terrible thing when you are pitching in Atlanta against an offense that doesn't have very much power.

Julio Teheran has been really good for the Braves this year. Teheran has a 2.84 ERA at home in his career, and a nice 3.13 ERA in the 2nd half of the season in his career. In 78 and 2/3 innings, Teheran has a 2.29 ERA against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Teheran has received the lowest amount of run support of any pitcher in the big leagues this year at a miserable 2.50 runs per game. Hellickson has received a paltry 3.24 runs per game, which is the 8th lowest of any pitcher in the majors. 

The under is 7-0 in Hellickson's last 7 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 after a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 7-0 in Teheran's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Friday MLB MONEYMAKER* The Toronto Blue Jays offense got a big boost when Jose Bautista came back into the fold recently. Toronto now has what is probably the deepest lineup in the majors. 

Baltimore's offense has been good this year, but they are slumping in a big way of late. The Orioles have scored 3 runs or less in 10 of their last 16 games. They haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 17 games. That's a pretty crazy statistic considering this is a team that is averaging 4.75 runs per game for the entire season (even after this recent slump). 

Marco Estrada has a good 3.38 ERA against Baltimore in 37 and 1/3 innings. Estrada is a second half pitcher, as he has a very nice 3.12 ERA in 2nd half of the season in his career.

This is also a good situational spot. Baltimore had to fly to Minnesota for a game on Thursday for a makeup game. Toronto had the day off. Baltimore had a virus go through their dugout a week or so ago, and I think this Orioles team is a little worn out right now. 

Kevin Gausman is actually a pitcher I'm high on, so this isn't a fade of him. Still, Gausman has a 5.11 road ERA in his career. The Orioles are also 5-17 in his last 22 road starts. 

Toronto is 43-18 in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Toronto here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants have gotten a lot of good starts out of Johnny Cueto this year. Cueto has been lights out at home. In his career, Cueto has a 2.26 ERA when pitching at AT&T Park. Washington's offense is very good against lefties, but only mediocre against right handed pitching. The Nationals hit .239 against righties vs. .261 against lefties. 

The San Francisco Giants have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 games. The Giants offense hasn't been stringing together hits. Tanner Roark is an underrated starter for the Nationals. Roark has had a FIP below 3 in 5 of his last 6 starts. Roark has been good in his career at suppressing home runs. 

Cueto generally pitches deep into the game which gives the Giants bullpen a break. The Nationals have one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The under is 5-1 in Roark's last 6 starts. The under is 5-2 in Cueto's last 7 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Danny Duffy takes on Matt Shoemaker on Wednesday night in KC. Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Duffy has been the Royals best starter so far this year. He has been consistent and his walks are way down from last year.

Matt Shoemaker started the season out slowly, but he has been awesome of late. Shoemaker has a 3.99 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, so he is still due some positive regression. The Royals offense has been struggling of late.

Kansas City's bullpen is healthy again, and Shoemaker has been pitching deep into games for the Angels. I see a close low scoring game in this one. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Doug Eddings is the umpire in this one, and that is great news for under bettors. In the past five years, no one has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than Eddings. He has a very high strikeout to walk ratio. He'll do everything he can to help these two pitchers.

The weather conditions favor the under. The wind will be blowing in from center field at about 10 mph and the temperature will only be in the low 70's for this one.

Both Foltynewicz and Duffey are inconsistent, but they are both young starters with some potential. The Braves have a miserable OBP of .299 against righties and the Twins are a weak .310 in the same category. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dylan Bundy was the number one rated prospect in the Baltimore organization coming into this year. Bundy has an extremely high upside. He flashed that potential last outing against Cleveland. He faces a free swinging Rockies team that isn't very good offensively on the road in this contest.

Jon Gray is a good pitcher who has a bunch of potential for the Rockies moving forward as well. Gray has allowed 3 runs or less in his last four games. Baltimore's offense is absolutely capable of scoring a bunch, but they have been in a funk of late. The Orioles haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games. 

D.J. Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a very solid under guy. He'll give both pitchers the corners throughout in this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 14-0 in the Orioles last 14 games overall. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 home games. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 vs. a right handed pitcher. The under is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 following a loss. A 55-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates still have a chance to make the playoffs, but they have do some great work in this portion of their schedule. 

Francisco Liriano goes to the mound for the Pirates, and he has been showing signs of turning it around of late. Liriano struck out 13 and walked no one in his last outing. For someone who has walked over 5 batters per nine innings this year, that was huge. Liriano has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last four starts. Liriano has a 3.56 ERA at home this compared to a 6.52 ERA on the road. 

Felix Hernandez hasn't been himself this year. Hernandez has actually had a lot of batted ball luck this year, or his numbers would be even worse. His ERA is 3.23, but he has a 4.25 FIP and a 4.28 XFIP. 

The Pirates have the better lineup here. Pittsburgh is healthy and they have a very deep lineup. Seattle misses Ketel Marte (mono). The Mariners have been bad against lefties all year as well. Seattle is hitting .266 against right handed pitching and only .240 against left handed pitching. 

Pittsburgh is 20-8 in their last 28 following a day off. The Mariners are 4-12 in their last 16 road games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a lefty. The Pirates are 16-5 in Liriano's last 21 home starts.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony Desclafani in this one. Desclafani has very good stuff, and he's in great form coming into this one. Desclafani has been the picture of consistency this year as well. He has gone at least 6 innings in all of his starts except for one. He has also allowed 3 runs or less in all but one of his starts. Desclafani hasn't walked a single batter in his last three outings.

The San Francisco Giants offense is ice cold right now. The Giants miss Hunter Pence and Joe Panik. How bad has this offense been of late? They have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their 8 games after the All Star break. 

Cincinnati's offense has been inconsistent this year. Jake Peavy starts for the Giants, and he has a solid 3.98 ERA at home this year. This is a great pitchers park and the temperature here is supposed to be only 57 degrees for this game.

The under is 6-0-3 in Desclafani's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series. The under is 3-0-3 in his last 6 starts. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 following 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Boston Red Sox are getting too much love from the oddsmakers here. Drew Pomeranz is a guy I've backed several times this year, but I see some issues coming for him. Pomeranz is a fly ball pitcher, and that was a good thing at Petco Park, but Fenway is a much different story. Also, he is now playing in the American League where the DH will hurt him. It could be a difficult adjustment.

Justin Verlander has been throwing the ball really well of late. Verlander has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last four starts. His strikeouts and swinging strikes are way up in recent games as well, which is a great sign. 

Mookie Betts is questionable for the Red Sox, and the Red Sox bullpen is hurting without Kimbrel and Uehara. 

Detroit has plenty of right handed sluggers to put up against Pomeranz, and this number is certainly inflated. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball MONEY* The St. Louis Cardinals hit .240 against left handed pitching (they are .261 against right handed pitching). The Cardinals are without Matt Carpenter and he's probably their most consistent hitter. 

Scott Kazmir is a very streaky pitcher, and he's been dealing of late. Kazmir has only 3 walks and 23 strikeouts in his last three starts. 

The Cardinals have called up Mike Mayers to make his big league debut in this one. He isn't a highly rated prospect, and this is definitely a tough game for him to make his debut in. While the Dodgers offense was bad early in the year, they have been red hot of late. The Dodgers have scored 44 runs in their last 8 games. Mayers has poor advanced metrics in the minors, and I don't think he is a long-term answer for the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a lefty. Take Los Angeles here. 

*4 Star MLB RED Hot CASH* The Texas Rangers aren't nearly as good as their record would indicate. This is a team that is going to continue to lose ground. Don't be surprised if the Astros win the AL West over the Rangers. Texas has no starting pitching depth now, and their bullpen is terrible. 

To make matters even worse, the starting pitchers they are running out there now don't pitch deep enough into the game, and the bullpen is overworked in a big way. The Rangers were able to win with Cole Hamels on the mound yesterday, but there's a big difference between Cole Hamels and A.J. Griffin. Griffin has a FIP of higher than 7 in his last three starts. He has had major control problems of late.

Edinson Volquez is a decent pitcher, and this Texas Rangers lineup is badly beaten up right now. Volquez has better day game numbers in his career, while Griffin has been better at night. This is a day game in KC, and the Royals are great at home. In fact, they are 38-16 in their last 54 home games.

Kansas City is getting healthy in the bullpen, and they have a huge advantage over Texas in that area.

This line is too short to pass up. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The weather in Cincinnati is perfect for the over. The heat index is expected to be 102 degrees during the middle of this game. Great American Ballpark is a good hitters park all the time, but it is a great hitters park when the weather is like this. 

Sam Holbrook is the umpire for this game. He ranks 84th out of 88 umpires in called strikes in the past five years according to my umpire database. Holbrook is a very good over umpire. The over is 34-16-3 in his last 53 Sunday games behind the dish.

Zack Godley starts here for Arizona, and I don't think he has the stuff to be a starter. Godley doesn't have enough plus pitches. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and that's a problem for Arizona too. The Diamondbacks bullpen has the single worst ERA in baseball since the All Star break. 

Brandon Finnegan is a lefty with some potential for the Reds, but he has been a mess of late. Finnegan is walking 4.57 batters per 9 innings, so Holbrook is a bad umpire for him to draw. Finnegan doesn't have a FIP below 4 in any of his last five starts. The Diamondbacks rate fourth in the majors in offensive production against lefties.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Houston Astros start Collin McHugh in this one. McHugh has pitched very well of late. In fact, he has allowed 2 runs or less in five of his last six games. McHugh will be backed by what is arguably the best bullpen in baseball as far as depth. The Astros bullpen doesn't get nearly enough credit.

Jered Weaver starts for the Angels, and Weaver is a long ways from the pitcher he used to be. Weaver had a 5.02 ERA and a 5.44 FIP on the year. He has been much worse on the road than at home the last couple years.

Twice so far this year Weaver has faced the Astros, and the Astros won by 2 and 6 runs in thisoe games. There's no reason to expect him to fare any better in this one.

Houston is 6-0 in McHugh's last 6 starts vs. the Angels. The Astros are 9-0 in their last 9 games overall vs. the Angels.

Take Houston -1.5.  

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Robbie Ray in this one. The Cincinnati Reds start Keyvius Sampson. The starting pitcher matchup is the primary reason I'm taking the road team in this one. Robbie Ray has a 4.49 ERA, but he has a 3.81 FIP and a 3.67 XFIP. He has had a FIP of 2.87 or lower in 3 of his last 4 starts, so he has been getting stronger of late. 

Sampson hasn't started a game yet this year. Dating back to last year, the Reds are 0-6 in his last 6 starts. Sampson had a 6.54 ERA as a starter last year, and he just doesn't seem to be able to get guys out when they multiple looks at him. Sampson's single biggest problem is the home run ball. That isn't a good combination for the conditions at Great American Ballpark on Saturday. The hot temperatures should mean the ball will fly very well.

Arizona has been cold of late, but they have been a moneymaker on the road this year. The Reds are a poor team and they have a significant pitching disadvantage. Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The Washington Nationals are in a bit of a slump right now, but I think Max Scherzer is the right guy to help them snap out of it on Saturday night. Scherzer has been getting much better as the year has gone on. He has a FIP of 2.01 or lower in 6 of his last 8 starts, and he has started keeping the ball in the park much better in recent outings. Scherzer is starting to look like his dominant self again.

Edwin Jackson isn't any good. He has a 4.76 ERA this year and a 6.09 FIP. That's extremely bad when you consider that he has only started one game. Even more evidence of how bad he is: Jackson had a 7.11 ERA in three starts at Triple A this year. The Nationals lineup has a great chance to wake up on Saturday. 

Washington has a big edge in the bullpen as well. The Padres rank in the bottom ten in most bullpen categories this year, and Washington has one of the top five bullpens in baseball. 

I don't like to lay money on the -1.5 runline very often, but in this case there are plenty of reasons to do it. Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* I had the under on Sunday when these two teams met with this same pitching matchup. The final score was 1-0 as Atlanta scored in the bottom of the 9th to win. I certainly don't expect anything like that at Coors Field, but I do think 11 is too high for these pitchers.

Julio Teheran has been the picture of consistency this year. He has very good numbers against this Rockies lineup as well. Teheran generally pitches pretty deep into the game. 

Jon Gray has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 14 starts. He has been great on the road all year, and of late he has pitched very well at home. Gray has the stuff to be the number one starter for Colorado for a long time.

The weather isn't as hot here as it was a week ago, and that helps as well.

The under is 8-0 in the Braves last 8 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The under is 7-0-1 in the Braves last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in Gray's last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 Friday starts. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros start Lance McCullers here. McCullers has been great at home throughout his career. He has a career 2.16 ERA at home. In 104 and 1/3 innings pitched at home in his career, he has 119 strikeouts. McCullers has dominating stuff, and I expect him to perform well here. McCullers has held Angels batters to a .200 average in 60 career plate appearances.

Matt Shoemaker started the year miserably and yet his season long numbers are looking pretty good right now. Shoemaker has a 4.08 ERA and a 3.35 FIP. His control has been amazing in the last couple months, and he's been using his splitter far more often. 

The Astros bullpen doesn't get enough credit. From top to bottom, this is probably the deepest bullpen in baseball. Houston has been a good under team this year in big part because their bullpen is great at shutting down opponents late in the game. 

Both of these two teams rank in the top ten in the majors in defensive runs saved also.

The under is 4-0 in McCullers last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 overall. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 vs. the AL West. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Toronto Blue Jays start Marco Estrada here. Estrada is definitely due for regression. The average pitcher has a batting average on batted balls in play of about .300. Estrada's opponents have hit .193 on balls in play. That can't continue forever. 

Seattle is 21-7 so far this year on the +1.5 runline on the road. Seattle plays a lot of close games, and when I am given a standard -110 on the +1.5 here, I have to take it. 

James Paxton has had a FIP below 3.50 in 7 of his last 8 starts. Paxton is a good pitcher who has had some rotten luck. I think the market is undervaluing him and overvaluing Estrada right now.

This is one where we are getting too good of a price based on the public betting the home team heavily. Toronto is getting about 87% of the public bets here. Take Seattle +1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The New York Yankees beat the Baltimore Orioles 5-0 last night. Clients of mine cashed on that one with the Yankees -1.5. I'm taking the Yankees again here. 

Baltimore has real problems right now. There is a bad illness going through the dugout right now. Manager Buck Showalter missed the game yesterday, and the lineup the Orioles put out against Michael Pineda looked very rough. Baltimore was without Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Matt Wieters on Tuesday night. Machado came down with the virus on Tuesday, and there's a good chance he'll miss this early game on Wednesday. There's no doubt Machado is the Orioles best hitter, so that is significant. 

Chris Tillman is due for regression. He has a 3.29 ERA and a 4.20 FIP and a 4.52 XFIP. Tillman has been very fortunate this year, and that luck can't continue through the whole season. Tillman has a horrible 7.30 ERA in eight career starts at Yankee Stadium, so this is a bad matchup for him.

C.C. Sabathia isn't great, but he has shut out the Orioles twice this year. Sabathia pitches much better in day games in his career, while Tillman is much worse in day games.

The Yankees have the much better bullpen as well, and their bullpen is well rested. This is a good price on the home team.

The Yankees are 7-2 in Sabathia's last 9 home starts vs. Baltimore.

Take New York here. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Michael Pineda is better than his numbers look. Pineda has 40 strikeouts and 8 walks in his last 5 outings, and this is a guy who has a bright future still. His issue has been big innings. If he can be a little more consistent, he'll be very good. Pineda's swinging strike rate is among the highest in the majors, which is a great sign.

Yovani Gallardo walks plenty of guys, and doesn't get swings and misses. He just doesn't have enough in the tank anymore, and he's on my fade list. I don't trust the Yankees offense a lot, but I can't lay the huge moneyline price here, so I'll go with the run line. 

The Yankees do have a massive bullpen edge, so if they can get off to an early lead, that bodes very well for them. Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Rays have a miserable .302 weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they have a very good .342 wOBA against lefties. Tampa Bay will face Jorge De La Rosa on Wednesday afternoon at Coors Field. De La Rosa has struggled this year, and this is a difficult spot for him.

Chris Archer hasn't been himself this year. Archer is giving up a bunch of home runs, and he is walking too many people. That's a bad combination for Coors Field. Colorado hits right handed pitching very well.

Coors Field is always a hitters park, but in the afternoon with a 91 degree temperature at gametime, these are perfect conditions for an over.

Paul Emmel is the umpire here, and the over is 86-55 in his last 141 games behind home plate. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Atlanta Braves start Lucas Harrell here. Harrell has been pretty good so far this year. He has a nice 3.63 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. Harrell pitched well in Triple A before getting called up to the big leagues.

The Reds start Anthony Desclafani, and he is a very talented youngster. Desclafani has a 2.55 ERA on the year and a 3.48 FIP. He is due for some regression, but I do expect Desclafani to be a good pitcher through the rest of the season.

These two offenses are weak. The Braves have the worst offense in the majors. The Reds offense ranks near the bottom in most categories as well. 

Angel Hernandez is calling the balls and strikes here and he's a solid under umpire. He has a big strike zone, and he'll help both starters in this one. It is an early get away day game, which means there may be some big names out of the lineup as well. This total is too high given the situation.

The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 games vs a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-2 in Desclafani's last 5 starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start last outing. A 12-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox have scored a grand total of 4 runs in their last five games. This White Sox offense has really been in a severe funk. Jose Quintana has gotten terrible run support for the last three years, and this year is no different.

Quintana is one of the most underrated pitchers in the majors, but he can't pick up the wins because the run support severely lacks in his games. Wade Miley isn't a great pitcher, but he is better than his numbers so far this year suggest. Expect a better second half from him.

Seattle's offense has been much worse against lefties this year, and they are up against a very good one. 

Kerwin Danley is behind home plate here and that's a very good thing for the under.

The under is 4-0-1 in the White Sox last 5 games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game two of a series. The under is 4-0 in Danley's last 4 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels offense is red hot right now. They put up 9 runs last night after being held scoreless through the first 3 innings. It would be a big surprise if the Angels are quieted down here by Kyle Lohse. Lohse has a 5.06 ERA in 10 Triple A starts this year. Simply put, he isn't the answer for Texas as a starting pitcher. I expect this to go badly for him.

Tim Lincecum had one decent outing against Oakland, and it has been all downhill since then. The Rangers have been very good on the road, and they should have a lot of scoring chances.

Both of these bullpens rank in the worst five pens in the majors.

Mark Wegner is the umpire here, and he rates in my top 5 over umpires according to my spreadsheet. This is a guy who doesn't like to call strikes, and he can create some ump shows with his unwillingness to call strike three even on good pitches.

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play Oddsmaker ERROR* The Pittsburgh Pirates should be a much bigger favorite than this. Pittsburgh starts Jameson Taillon, and he has a bright future ahead of him. Taillon has tremendous control and that is what sets him apart from most young starters. He doesn't pitch himself into trouble.

Junior Guerra has pitched pretty well this year, but his advanced metrics suggest he is due for some regression. The Pirates lineup hasn't always shown it this year, but I still believe this is a very good offense. Pittsburgh has far more depth than the average lineup. 

The Pirates bullpen was terrible early in the year, but they have been much better in recent weeks. The Brewers bullpen is a clear weakness.

Milwaukee is 19-41 in their last 60 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 16-35 in their last 51 vs. the NL Central. They are 1-5 in their last 6 at Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are playing with confidence right now, and they still have plenty to play for through the rest of the year. The Brewers are definitely sellers at the deadline, and this line is too short. 

Take Pittsburgh big. Top Rated Play. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Texas Rangers have been great as an underdog this year. The Rangers are a team that I believe will regress some in the second half, but at this price, I like them on Monday night. Texas starts A.J. Griffin in this one. Griffin has clearly pitched poorly in his last couple starts, but he is a guy who is more than capable of pitching well here. In 5 career starts in Los Angeles against the Angels, he has a solid 3.09 ERA. 

Nick Tropeano has a 3.12 ERA, but his FIP if 4.74. Tropeano has stranded 90.8% of runners so far this year. That isn't even close to sustainable. Tropeano has pitched almost a full run worse at home in his career than he has on the road.

The Angels are 19-26 on the year at home, and the Rangers are 26-23 on the road. This game is mispriced in my opinion. We'll back the underdog here. Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees square off in a big Sunday night showdown. The Red Sox have won the first two in this series, and look to finish off a sweep here.

David Price has been throwing the ball really well lately. Price pitched into some terrible luck early in the year, and it was only a matter of time until his results improved. The Yankees have struggled all year against left handed pitching, and I think Price can pitch deep into this one.

Masahiro Tanaka has held this Red Sox lineup to a .240 average and a .258 OBP all-time. If Tanaka can pitch well here and turn it over to the best bullpen in the majors, that bodes well for this under play.

The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4. The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 after a win. The under is 5-0 in the Red Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Price's last 5 starts vs. the AL East. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline SMASHER* The Houston Astros are red hot right now. Houston's offense has been inconsistent this year, but not enough people are paying attention to the amazing work of their bullpen. The Astros bullpen consistently ranks in the top 3 bullpens in the majors in every category. 

Collin McHugh is pitching in decent form right now, and this Mariners offense has struggled at home this year. The Astros bullpen is significantly better than the Mariners bullpen, so that is a big advantage. 

Mike Montgomery has never really proven himself as a starter. I don't expect him to get deep into this game, and the Astros should create scoring chances on this bullpen.

The Astros are 21-5 in McHugh's last 26 starts vs. the AL West. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves haven't given Julio Teheran any run support this year. They are averaging only 2.00 runs per game in his home starts this year. Teheran has been very solid, and he faces a Rockies lineup that generally struggles to score on the road. 

Jon Gray is a very good young pitcher, and I expect him to be the ace of this Colorado staff for the next few years. Gray hasn't totally figured out pitching at home, but he has been great on the road. His raw stuff is excellent, and the Braves offense is among the worst in all of baseball.

The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in the Braves last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 after a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right hander. The under is 5-0 in Teheran's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 starts following a Braves loss. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts vs. the NL West. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* Sonny Gray appears to be righting the ship. In his last 4 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in three of those games. Gray's FIP has been considerably better in recent outings, which suggests that it hasn't been just good luck.

Gray has been much better in day games in his career (2.77 ERA vs. a 3.47 ERA at night). He also has a 2.67 ERA in four career starts vs. the Blue Jays. Gray has a fantastic 2.05 ERA on 6 plus days of rest in his career. Gray also has a great 1.88 ERA in 4 starts with Mike Muchlinski behind home plate.

R.A. Dickey has a 3.93 ERA on the year, but a 5.06 FIP. Dickey is likely to regress, and he has been bad at Oakland in the past. 

Gray isn't being respected by the oddsmakers like he used to be in the past. The Blue Jays are good, but the A's have the better starting pitcher on the mound here. At this nice plus money price, I'm taking the home team. Take Oakland. 

*3 Star MLB First Half Finale CASH* The Houston Astros have struggled against left handed pitching this year. Houston ranks 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitchers. Sean Manaea has been a little shaky in his first few outings in the big leagues, but he has great stuff and has a ton of potential.

Dallas Keuchel has been pitching better in recent games. Keuchel has always been much better at home, and he gets the home start here. His day game ERA in his career is 3.57 (3.91 at night), so that's another positive for him. This A's lineup is weaker than the average as well.  The Astros have a shutdown bullpen also.

Vic Carapazza is calling the balls and strikes here, and he is a big under guy. He ranks in the top 8 umpires in the big leagues in strikes called both this year and in the past five years overall. His strikeout/walk ratio is much higher than the league average. His presence here is a big positive for the under. 

The under is 21-8 in the Astros last 29 games. The under is 4-0 in Carapazza's last 4 Sunday games behind the plate. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians start Danny Salazar in this one, and he has been great this year. Salazar does sometimes struggle with issuing too many free passes, but with Phil Cuzzi behind the home plate, he gets a massive strike zone to work with. Salazar has great strikeout stuff, and this Yankees lineup has been a disappointment this year. 

C.C. Sabathia has been pretty solid this year. Sabathia has a 3.48 ERA and a 3.80 FIP. Sabathia isn't going to wow anyone, but he is better than many realize as well. 

The Indians bullpen has been much better of late, and everyone knows how good this Yankees bullpen can be. 

The wind is blowing is forecasted to be blowing in at about 15 mph for this one.

The under is 7-0 in Sabathia's last 7 starts on four days of rest. The under is 3-0-1 in Salazar's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in Cuzzi's last 6 games behind home plate. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Houston Astros have the edge in every facet of the game here. Lance McCullers is a much better pitcher than Kendall Graveman. The Astros offense is better than the Oakland offense. The Astros bullpen is far better than the Oakland bullpen. The Houston defense is also much better than the Oakland defense (Oakland is last in the majors here). 

Lance McCullers has an amazing 1.97 ERA in his career when pitching at home. He'll be at home here against a subpar Oakland offense. McCullers has a swinging strike rate of 13.1%, which is among the best you'll ever see. Basically, this guy is great at missing bats. 

Kendall Graveman has a swinging strike rate of only 8.4%. He's been getting fortunate in some recent games, and I think now is a good time to fade him. He has been torched by Houston in limited action. 

The Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 games vs. a right handed starter. The A's are 17-47 in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Houston -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Colorado Rockies start Jon Gray in this one. Gray has had some trouble with the home run ball, but the Phillies have less power than most teams. Philadelphia's lineup is one of the weakest in the majors. 

On the whole, Gray is a very good pitcher with a bright future ahead of him. He has struggled in his career at Coors Field, but he has shown signs of coming around of late in his home games. I also believe that facing a team like the Phillies helps quite a bit in his case. 

Vincent Velasquez is coming back from an injury, and I don't see the Phillies pushing him deep into this game. Velasquez needs a bigger arsenal in the long term (he throws a fastball 65% of the time), and his inability to throw his "other" pitches well enough should hurt him in Colorado. 

The Phillies have played better of late, but the Rockies have the better pitcher and the much better offense here. This is a good price on the Rockies at home. Take Colorado. 

*4 Star TGIF BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins start Jose Fernandez at home, and that's a great thing for them. The Marlins are 28-3 in Fernandez's last 31 home starts. Here, he is facing a Reds team that just isn't any good. Cincinnati is 25-64 in their last 89 road games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Fernandez was roughed up by the Braves in Atlanta in his last start. This is the perfect spot for him to bounce back at home, where he has a career 1.48 ERA. He'll face a Reds lineup that strikes out a lot. Fernandez is striking out 13.1 batters per nine innings this year. 

Miami's offense has been very good this year. The emergence of Ozuna as a star and Christian Yelich as a very good hitter have been big for the. Stanton had been bad all year until the last few days, and now he is breaking out. 

Miami has a very good .332 OBP against right handed pitching and they'll face Dan Straily, who has a road ERA above 5. The Reds bullpen is also the worst in baseball.

I like Fernandez to bounce back and the Marlins to win comfortably. Take Miami -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Mike Pelfrey is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Pelfrey constantly puts a bunch of guys on base, and is able to get out of trouble more often than you'd think, but when he faces the best offenses that generally doesn't work. The Blue Jays didn't look like one of the best offenses early this year, but the potential was always there. They are finally hitting the ball extremely well right now. 

Toronto has scored 44 runs in their last five games. Pelfrey should have a lot of trouble quieting this offense.

J.A. Happ has outpitched his peripheral stats all year. Happ isn't a terrible pitcher, but he also isn't that good. Happ has a tough matchup here in that he faces a Detroit offense that can stack up all kinds of right handed power bats against him. Happ has an ERA of 5.6 in his career against the Tigers. He allowed 6 runs in 5 innings earlier this year against the Tigers.

Joe West is a good over umpire, and both pitchers have struggled with him behind the dish in the past. The over is also 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Pittsburgh Pirates still remember when Jake Arrieta shut them down and ended their season in the one-game playoff last year in Pittsburgh. There is all kinds of motivation for the Pirates in this game, and this time Arrieta enters the game skidding. 

Arrieta has had a lot of control issues of late. The Cubs right hander has walked 14 batters in his last 4 starts. That's a recipe for trouble against a Pirates lineup that has been hitting the ball really well of late. 

Francisco Liriano is the one worry here. Liriano has been pretty bad this year. He has a track record of pitching much better at home though, and the Cubs are in a terrible spot here. Chicago played a late game that went into extra innings last night and then arrived late for this one. 

The Cubs haven't been as good lately, and the Pirates are red hot. This line on a +1.5 is too good for me to pass on. Take Pittsburgh +1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Super Value Play* The St. Louis Cardinals are 18-26 at home this year. Things are heading in the wrong direction for the Cardinals as well. Matt Carpenter is arguably the team's best players, and he went down with what looked like a fairly serious oblique injury. Carpenter will likely be on the DL after this injury. Brandon Moss has been solid this year as well, and he's out with an injury. 

Adam Wainwright has been better of late, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have always given him trouble. Wainwright has a 4.30 ERA against the Pirates in his career, and this has been a team that has given him fits. 

Pittsburgh and St. Louis are going in different directions right now. The Pirates are red hot, and the Cardinals are reeling. 

The Pirates bullpen was a major problem early in the year, but they have been great of late. Pittsburgh's bullpen has been significantly better than the Cardinals bullpen in the past month.

Tyler Glasnow starts this game for Pittsburgh and this is his MLB debut. Glasnow is the Pirates top pitching prospect, and he has elite stuff. Glasnow had a 2.20 ERA in Triple A last year, and his ERA in Triple A this year is only 1.78. 

There is obviously some risk with backing a pitcher in their first start of the year, but at this price I do like this selection quite a bit. The healthier team with all the momentum catching a big price. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres offense has been bad for the year as a whole, but they have been much better in the past month. The Padres have gotten much improved hitting from Upton as well as Matt Kemp in recent weeks. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has improved as Yasmany Tomas and Jean Segura have produced very well in the last month. 

Chase Field is a great hitters park when the roof is open, and it is proving to still be a pretty good park for hitters when the roof is closed. 

Shelby Miller starts for the Diamondbacks and his numbers this year are just awful. Miller allowed only 26.7% hard contact last year, but this year it is up to 35%. That's a very telling number. He is walking 4.62 batters per nine innings, and that has hurt him badly.

Colin Rea isn't very good, and on the road his ERA is north of 5. Rea doesn't have enough plus pitches.

Both bullpens are taxed and have pitched poorly of late.

The over is 6-0 in Rea's last 6 following a quality start. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 7-0 in Rea's last 7 games after the Padres gave up 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a righty. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games overall. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 5 runs or more. The over is 5-0-1 in Miller's last 6 starts when the DBacks opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. A 56-0 angle. 

Take the over.