*3 Star Play on Over* This total is too low given Toronto's high-caliber offense and Kevin Gausman not being in good form lately. The Blue Jays have the highest batting average in baseball at .265. They entered this week ranked third in runs and on-base percentage. Toronto has scored at least four runs in 13 of its last 16 games.  Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen is decent, but he's a low-innings pitcher. Only twice in his last 10 starts has he gone more than five innings. He has a 3.90 ERA in night games. Rasmussen has to contend with a red-hot Vladimir Guerrero, who has a 12-game hitting streak and is batting .421 during his past 10 games.  The Rays are missing some key batters due to injuries. They did pick up David Peralta from the Diamondbacks to strengthen their outfield depth. This total is low due to Gausman, who has a 3.30 ERA. But Gausman hasn't been sharp with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. Gausman has surrendered four homers during these last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

The Giants are struggling averaging two runs per game during their last five games. Things aren't looking up as they go against Zac Gallen, who has a 3.36 ERA this season when pitching at home. Gallen is in good form with a 2.89 ERA during his last three starts. This is a day game. Gallen has a 1.90 day time ERA. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

Both teams have below average offenses. Tampa Bay starter Corey Kluber has been solid. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts reaching the sixth inning during each of those seven outings. The Rays have a strong bullpen ranking eighth in relief pitching ERA. 

The Rays managed only a combined five runs in their last two games while striking out 19 times against mediocre Kansas City pitching. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

These are two of the coldest offenses in baseball. And now both are running into hot pitchers. Miami is averaging 2.4 runs in its last 15 games. The Marlins have been shut out in three of their last four games. The Pirates are averaging 1.8 runs in their last six games discounting an eight-run game against the Rockies at Coors Field. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. 

 Don't look for the Pirates to break out with a big-scoring game facing Sandy Alcantara, a prime Cy Young Award candidate with a 9-4 record, 1.76 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Alcantara has a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts. He has the lowest ERA in the National League.  Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller has pitched his most consistent ball of his career since rejoining the rotation at the end of May. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts since then. He has a 2.37 ERA during his past three starts. The Marlins are without Jorge Soler, their second-leading home run hitter with 13. He was placed on the injured list because of back spasms on Saturday. Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play Under*The Tigers are the lowest-scoring team in the majors. They've scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games. 

Mariners ML (+106)

 *3 Star Play on Seattle* The Astros are in a tough scheduling spot here. They swept the Yankees in a doubleheader at home on Thursday, but then had to fly out to the West Coast to take on the hottest team in baseball. Seattle has won 14 in a row and 22 of its last 26 games. The Mariners are fresh, too. This is their first game following the All-Star break.  It wouldn't surprise if the Astros rested a starter or two. They may not have their star closer, Ryan Pressly. He was not with Houston against the Yankees after going on paternity leave following the birth of his daughter on Wednesday.  The Astros have lost in six of their last eight visits to Seattle.  The pitching matchup pits Jose Urquidy against Marco Gonzales. Urquidy has a 5.20 road ERA. Gonzales has a 3.21 home ERA.  

Take Seattle

*3 Star Play Under*

Detroit and Cleveland rank last and second-to-last in home runs. So it's not surprising they don't score much. The Tigers have scored eight runs in their last six games if you discount a seven-run performance they had against the Royals. Detroit scores the fewest runs in the league and is second-from-the-bottom in OPS. The Guardians have scored four or fewer runs in 13 of their last 15 games. The pitching matchup is Drew Hutchinson versus Zach Plesac. Neither pitcher generates a lot of respect. But each is good enough to tame these weak offenses. Hutchinson proved that two starts ago when he held the Guardians to one earned run in five innings. He's made two starts since returning to Detroit's starting rotation, giving up three earned runs in 11 innings, allowing 10 hits and one walk. Detroit has the third lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Plesac's ERA is 3.89 on the season. However, his ERA at home is 2.85. Plesac is in good current form, too, with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. There is a slight wind blowing in. 

Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray once were outstanding pitchers. They still are very good. Cueto has a 2.91 ERA on the season. He has a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and a 1.74 road ERA on the season. Gray has a 3.03 ERA. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts. Gray's home ERA is 2.83. Both pitchers can go deep into games, too, so middle relief doesn't have to factor. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tony Gonsolin has been great for the Dodgers all season, leading the majors in ERA at 1.62 and in WHIP at 0.80. The Cardinals scored seven runs against the Dodgers on Tuesday in a 7-6 victory. But previous to that, St. Louis had only managed 11 runs in its past eight games. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies* The Padres held off the Rockies, 6-5, on Monday night. That was just the second time the Rockies didn't win during the past eight times they've been a home underdog. Colorado was 6-1 as a home 'dog entering Monday's game, winning five of those games at a plus price of $1.30 or higher. So a strong look must be given to the underdog Rockies in today's game in a bounce back spot. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rockies are a hitting machine at Coors Field. The Padres are a much stronger offensive club, too, when playing away from their pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Colorado ranks No. 1 at home in runs scored, batting average and OPS. The Rockies are No. 2 in home slugging percentage. The Padres are the second-highest scoring team in the majors when playing on the road. They rank in the top nine in a number of other offensive categories when away from home, including runs, batting average, OPS and OPB.  

Neither starting pitcher, San Diego's Sean Manaea nor Colorado's Jose Urena, has a good track record at Coors Field. Manaea is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts at Coors. Urena has a 5.73 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 11 career innings at Coors. The lefthanded Manaea is not in good form with a 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings.

The Rockies have the second-highest batting average in the league against southpaws at .286. Urena has pitched more than three innings just once all season. So the Rockies' vulnerable middle relievers could see plenty of action.  The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out to left field. The Rockies aren't likely to have Kris Bryant, but could get back C.J. Cron, who leads the team in homers and RBI's.  Take the Over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers will start Brandon Woodruff in this one. Woodruff has been excellent of late. He started the season slowly, but he is in great form coming into this one. Woodruff has a 1.73 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in his last five starts. Woodruff has held this Pirates lineup to a weighted on base average of just .281 in his career as well. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 13 runs in their last six games. The Pirates don't have nearly enough depth in their lineup.

Zach Thompson is a middle of the road starter for the Pirates. The Brewers offense isn't all that good though. They are averaging just 3.17 runs per game in their last six contests. 

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here. The under is 21-9 in his last 30 games behind home plate. Ortiz has had some very high strikeout/walk rates in the last couple years and that should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense clearly doesn't have the upside they did before Bryce Harper went down with an injury. The Phillies have been getting some remarkable performances from Kyle Schwarber, and you have to wonder how long he can keep this up. 

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last eight games. They have scored 3 runs or less in each of their last five games. 

Both of these teams are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handers. The Phillies are 5th in wOBA against lefties and 11th in wOBA against righties (would be much lower without Harper). The Cardinals are 7th in wOBA against lefties and 14th against righties.

Zack Wheeler is a top 6 or 8 right handed pitcher in baseball. Wheeler has a 2.66 ERA and a 2.48 FIP. He is putting together a third straight fantastic season. 

Adam Wainwright isn't the dominant starter he once was, but he is at least an average right handed starter, and his splits at home suggest he is still an above average starting pitcher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals have been without Juan Soto in their last two games. He is questionable for this contest. Washington isn't very good offensively to begin with. Without Soto, this Washington offense becomes a bottom six or eight offense in baseball. 

Philadelphia is without Bryce Harper, and that definitely hurts their offense a lot. They are coming off an excellent offensive showing last game, but I still expect this team to have some struggles at the plate without him. 

Josiah Gray is a very highly touted pitching prospect who has been pretty impressive in his recent outings. Gray has a 2.75 ERA and a 3.25 FIP in his last five starts. 

Aaron Nola has pitched well in general this year, and he has been at his best of late. Nola has just 4 walks and 38 strikeouts in his last 37 innings pitched. In his last five starts, he has a 1.70 ERA and a 2.08 FIP.

Bill Miller is behind home plate here, and Miller has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in baseball. He will give the pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays -1.5* Adrian Martinez had a 5.63 ERA with a 5.63 FIP in his 13 starts in Triple A this year. Martinez had a 5.28 ERA and a 5.29 FIP in his nine starts in Triple A last year. He has consistently struggled with giving up too many home runs, even at the lower levels. This isn't a guy I expect to have long term success in the majors.

Toronto was shut down by Irvin last night. Irvin is just mediocre pitcher, and Martinez is worse. I would expect the Blue Jays bats to bounce back here. Toronto is a top five offense in baseball, and this is a good spot for them.

The Oakland A's are just dreadul. If you have been betting against them in their home games and taking the other team on the -1.5 run line you would be 23-10 in the last 33 games. Oakland's offense at home has an unreal bad .251 wOBA. Not a single player in the regular Oakland A's lineup has an average better than .239. 

While Kikuchi has been very inconsistent this year, and he is capable of getting hit hard, Kikuchi does have a sparkling .206 wOBA allowed against this Oakland lineup in 72 at bats for the A's roster.

Take Toronto -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Miami Marlins have won four straight games including the first three games of this four game series in Washington. 

The Washington Nationals are one of the worst teams in baseball this year. Washington is an ugly 14-29 at home this year. Juan Soto is their superstar and he left Sunday's game and needed an MRI after the game. It is very questionable on whether he will play in this early game on July 4. 

Patrick Corbin starts for the Nationals and he has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.41 FIP on the season. Corbin has a terrible history against this Marlins lineup. The Marlins hitters have a .340 wOBA against Corbin overall. 

Braxton Garrett is a youngster who was a first round draft pick. Garrett has improved this year and in time he should be a solid starter. The Nationals are subpar against lefties.

The Marlins are a top five fielding team. The Nationals are the second worst team in the league in fielding. The Marlins have a top ten bullpen in the majors and the Nationals have a bottom five bullpen in baseball.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees have the best record in baseball. The Yankees don't really have a weakness. The offense is very good and they have all kinds of power. The Yankees pitching staff is plenty good enough. The Yankees bullpen is arguably the best in baseball. 

The Cleveland Guardians have hit right handed pitching well this year. Cleveland has been terrible against left handed pitching though. Cleveland is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against left handed pitching. 

Jordan Montgomery has an impressive 3.27 ERA and a solid 3.74 FIP on the year. Montgomery isn't flashy, but he is a pretty good left handed starter. Cleveland hasn't been able to hit lefties in general, and this looks like a good matchup for him on paper.

Triston McKenzie has a 6.44 ERA in his last five starts and a 6.57 FIP in those starts. McKenzie has gotten hit very hard in his last two outings, and now he faces the powerful Yankees lineup.

Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dallas Keuchel is a really bad left handed starter at this time in his career. Keuchel doesn't have strikeout pitches, and he is no longer elite at inducing soft contact. 

Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Rockies now have Kris Bryant back in the middle of the lineup as well. Bryant and CJ Cron form a tremendous duo that really crushes lefties. 

Austin Gomber has been in bad form this year. Arizona has scored at least 7 runs in three of their last four games. The DBacks have a budding star in Alek Thomas and he has really caught fire of late. 

Both bullpens have had to work a lot of late, and neither bullpen has much in the way of depth. 

I expect plenty of scoring chances for both teams here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies rank second in the majors in weighted on base average over the last two weeks. Colorado has really been seeing the ball well of late. The Rockies have gotten a bit healthier of late, and that certainly helps.

Arizona has the worst batting average on balls in play in the last month of any team in the majors. The Diamondbacks offense isn't great, but they have been unfortunate of late. If you haven't been getting hits to drop in, Coors Field is a great place to travel to in order to get right. 

Merrill Kelly has made three starts at Coors Field, and he has an 8.15 ERA here. Kelly has pitched well this year overall, but I think this will be a real challenge for him. 

Antonio Senzatela has allowed a whopping .349 batting average and a .407 wOBA in 126 at bats against those players currently on the Diamondbacks roster. 

Warm weather and a slight breeze out to center field are helpful here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros offense is starting to wake up. That's dangerous for the rest of the league. Houston's bullpen has the best ERA in baseball, and the starting pitching staff is very solid.

Justin Verlander has thrown the ball really well of late. In his last four starts, he has 4 walks and 23 strikeouts. Verlander has a 2.19 ERA and a 2.93 FIP in those starts. 

Taijuan Walker is a solid starter, but he has been at his best early in the season through his career. Walker has pretty drastic splits from April/May to July/August. The weather is heating up.

Houston is 28-10 in their last 38 vs. a right handed starter. The Astros are 11-4 in their last 15 road games.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd and 6th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Against right handed pitching, both are much more mediocre though. The Braves are 11th and the Phillies are 17th. 

Now, the Phillies are without superstar Bryce Harper. Harper is one of the best overall hitters in the game and this is a huge loss. 

Charlie Morton has thrown his best baseball in the last couple outings.

Zack Wheeler has tremendous splits at home the last two years. Wheeler has a 1.49 ERA and a spectacular .229 wOBA allowed at home this season. He had a 2.38 ERA and a .246 wOBA last year at home.

Both teams are down key hitters in the lineup.

The weather calls for moderate temperatures for summer in Philadelphia, and the slight wind is from center field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Red Sox ML* The Cleveland Guardians are tied for last in the majors in wRC+ against lefties. They are second last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. I won't pretend that Rich Hill is a great lefty, but he is still crafty and has a pretty good 4.04 FIP.

Aaron Civale starts for the Guardians. Civale has really struggled this year. In his career, he has some ugly day/night splits. In day games, Civale has a 5.05 ERA and a 1.317 WHIP. In night games he has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.152 WHIP. Civale pitches in the daytime here against a top six or eight lineup in baseball. 

The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Boston is 26-9 in their last 35 games overall. Cleveland is just 1-5 in their last 6 home meetings with the Red Sox. 

At this price, I have to side with the Red Sox.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has the highest called strike percentage in baseball in the last five years. You won't find a better umpire for an under than Eddings. He got himself in a lot of battles with the Blue Jays and White Sox in his last game behind home plate. To say that he had a massive strike zone in that one is a big understatement. That was a brutal beat on the under in that game, but it certainly wasn't because of Eddings. 

Blake Snell had much better numbers pitching at home last year, and I expect his home numbers to improve a lot the rest of the year. Snell struggles with walks at times, but Eddings should help him at least some here.

Zach Eflin goes against a Padres lineup that is shorthanded because of injury right now. Eflin has been solid this year. 

The Phillies bullpen ranks about middle of the pack this year. The Padres have a top 6 or 8 bullpen in baseball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds are a bottom three team in the majors. Cincinnati had lost 7 straight games before winning last night. I don't think they'll pull off another win here. In 11 of the Reds last 13 losses they have lost by two runs or more. 

Mike Minor is well past his prime and he has been getting crushed so far this year, and that has been against mediocre or worse lineups. Minor has a 6.97 ERA and a 7.34 FIP on the season. Minor has allowed a whopping 7 home runs in just 20 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Giants are above average against lefties and I think they'll get to him here.

Logan Webb is one of the more underrated starting pitchers in the majors. Webb hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a single start this year. He also has a sparkling 3.01 ERA and .288 wOBA allowed at home in his career. 

Take the Giants -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Yankees have elite power against right handers as well and easily rank first in ISO against right handed pitching. New York has some underrated left handed bats in this lineup.

Justin Verlander is still a good pitcher, but he isn't the dominant pitcher on a consistent basis that he was a few years ago. Verlander had a swinging strike rate of 16.1% back in 2019. This year he has a swinging strike rate of 11.0%. 

Luis Severino has allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts. Severino has excellent stuff and he has a 13.6% swinging strike rate, which is the highest of his career. 

The Yankees should have a fresh Clay Holmes available in this one, and he has been as good as anyone in the majors in the bullpen this season.

The Yankees are 30-7 at home this year. The Astros are 5-12 in their last 17 at Yankee Stadium. 

These are two very good teams, but I'll lay the short price with this Yankees team that has been getting it done consistently all season.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees* The Houston Astros are a good team and I respect Framber Valdez as a strong starting pitcher. I still think there is value on the New York Yankees here.

The Yankees have been the best team in baseball all season. New York is 29-7 at home this year. The Yankees are 43-12 in their last 55 games overall. It is going to be very rare to see them as such a short home favorite.

Jameson Taillon is a really good pitcher. Taillon doesn't walk batters and he limits big innings. Taillon is throwing the best baseball of his career right now. 

Houston can't match the bullpen the Yankees have. The Astros are only ok in the bullpen. 

Houston is 1-4 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. They are 5-11 in their last 16 games playing on the road against the Yankees.

I'll back New York laying the short price.

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's offense is terrible. Oakland has scored two runs or fewer in six of their last ten games. Oakland is last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. George Kirby is a highly rated right handed pitcher who has shown the ability to throw multiple pitches well and limit hard contact.

Paul Blackburn is having a breakout season for the Athletics. Blackburn is doing a tremendous job inducing soft contact and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Seattle's offense is very inconsistent.

The A's offense has been bad in general this year, but they are much worse at home. In fact, no other team in the majors has a wOBA lower than .284 at home this year, but the A's have a miserable .255 wOBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this game. Eddings has the highest called strike percentage of any home plate umpire in the majors in the last five years. He consistently rings up batters and is a very good under umpire.

Dylan Cease has one problem and that is his control. Cease is averaging 12 strikeouts per nine innings and he has multiple very good pitches. Eddings should help his control problems at least some here.

Kevin Gausman has a .458 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed in his last three starts. Gausman has a fantastic 16.0% swinging strike rate on the year and a 1.75 FIP. He is still a very good pitcher.

The White Sox are 1st in the majors in wOBA against lefties and 28th against righties. The Blue Jays have a .352 wOBA as a team against lefties, but their wOBA is .323 against righties.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Oakland A's are a team I'll look to fade as often as I can. I think Oakland is the worst team in baseball. Their offense is dreadful, especially against right handed pitching. Oakland ranks second worst in baseball in weighted on base average. They are 26th in wOBA against lefties and 29th in wOBA against right handed pitching.

I think Brady Singer is an underrated young right handed starter. Singer has faired well against below average offenses this year. He has been hit hard by the best lineups in baseball. Oakland is far from that. 

Oakland starts Jared Koenig in this one. The A's lefty wasn't highly touted and I don't think he'll have a long career in the majors. The Royals aren't great offensively, but they have been better against lefties than right handers.

Oakland has won 3 of their last 25 home games. The A's have virtually no home support and this team has clearly played better on the road than at home. 

Kansas City has the better pitcher and the much better lineup here.

Take the Royals. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees have won 15 of their last 16 games. New York has the best record in baseball, and it isn't very close. They have the best team batting average and the best team ERA in baseball. The Yankees are playing excellent baseball.

Toronto is a very good team, and the Blue Jays certainly deserve respect, but they are laying a pretty big number here against the best team in baseball so far this year.

While I do think Alex Manoah is a better starting pitcher than Jameson Taillon, there isn't a world of difference with the way Taillon has pitched this year. He has a slightly worse ERA on the road this year (3.25) but his wOBA allowed is actually lower on the road so he has been unfortunate to give up those runs. Taillon does a great job getting ahead in the count and not walking batters.

Manoah is excellent, but the Toronto bullpen is much worse than the Yankees bullpen. The Yankees have a top two or three bullpen in baseball. Toronto is arguably a bottom 10 or 12 bullpen in baseball.

I think this one should be a coin flip, and we are getting a nice plus money price. I'll take it.

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles start Dean Kremer in this one. Kremer has been hit around hard in his time in the big leagues. He had 7.55 ERA and a 6.99 FIP last season. Kremer walks a lot of guys and gives up a lot of hard contact. Until he proves capable of consistently staying out of big innings, I don't trust him against major league lineups.

Shane Baz is an above average prospect for the Rays, but he doesn't usually pitch very deep into games. The Rays middle relief is weaker this year than it has been in recent seasons.

Baltimore's offense has been much better of late, and their bullpen has been absolutely dreadful in recent weeks. 

The Orioles have played nine straight games that have gotten to at least 9 runs total. Seven of the nine have reached at least 11 runs.

A hot night in Baltimore (nearly 90 degrees) should mean the ball is flying well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies are fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Cleveland Guardians are 29th (second to last) in the majors in wOBA against lefties. 

Cleveland has been good against right handed pitching this year, but they are up against a lefty in Austin Gomber. Gomber has a tremendous track record at Coors Field. In 15 starts, he has a 3.50 ERA at Coors. This is a really tough park for pitchers, but Gomber has a stellar 1.178 WHIP at Coors.

Pilkington starts for the Guardians and this is a really tough spot for the youngster. Pitching at Coors Field for the first time is never easy, and the Rockies really hit left handed pitching well.

I think Colorado should be in the -125 range, so I'll grab this price.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles send Dean Kremer to the mound on Sunday. Kremer has been terrible in the big leagues. Kremer has a career 7.84 ERA and a ridiculously high 1.807 WHIP. 

Brad Keller goes to the mound for the Royals. Keller has been much worse in the first half of the season in his career. Keller has a 6.31 ERA and a 4.96 FIP in his last six starts. He is striking out only 4.54 batters per nine innings during that time.

The Royals bullpen has the single worst SIERA in the majors in the past month. The Orioles rank below average in the bullpen in the last month.

Both offenses have shown some life of late. The temperature for this game is expected to be 91 degrees, so the ball should be flying well in Kansas City.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank dead last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching. Detroit is a terrible offense against right handed pitching, and Ross Stripling is a decent starting pitcher. Stripling has bounced around in the majors, but he has shown the ability to throw strikes consistently and limit big innings.

Tarik Skubal is an excellent young pitcher. Skubal is averaging just 1.37 walks per nine innings. He is also getting hitters to chase at an increased rate. Skubal has a stellar 2.33 ERA and a 2.10 FIP on the season. In his last seven starts, he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any game. He has allowed zero runs in four of those seven starts. 

The Blue Jays lineup is very good and they are capable of scoring here, but Skubal doesn't give up many home runs and he has superb control. They will have to earn it.

The Tigers bullpen has quietly been excellent this year. They have the second best bullpen ERA in baseball. Toronto's bullpen is middle of the road, but they are against a really weak lineup.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays -1.5* The Toronto Blue Jays struggled offensively for quite a while this year, but they have finally really kicked it in offensively in the last few weeks. This offense is too talented to struggle for the entire season. Toronto ranks first in the majors by a landslide in weighted on base average over the last 14 days (.400 wOBA). For the season, they now rank 5th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Detroit starts Brieske here and he is a youngster who is inconsistent. Brieske makes too many mistakes to have success against Toronto on a consistent basis.

The Tigers offense is mediocre against lefties, but they are abysmal against right handed pitching. Detroit ranks second to last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. They rank last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching. 

Kevin Gausman is a really good starting pitcher. Gausman has the highest chase rate in the majors this year, so he is making the opposition swing at a bunch of bad balls. Gausman ranks in the top two percent in the majors in walk rate. Gausman has a 2.19 ERA on the road between last year and this season thus far. Gausman has 7 walks and 73 strikeouts this year.

Toronto should be favored by even more here in this matchup. I'll lay it on the run line.

Take Toronto -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Orioles ML* The Baltimore Orioles aren't a team I'll back very many times this year, but they are in what I believe is a good spot here.

The Kansas City Royals have the least wins in all of baseball. Kansas City has some major problems as a team, and I don't see them turning it around anytime soon. 

The Royals are starting arguably their worst starting pitcher here in Jonathan Heasley. Heasley has 18 walks and only 15 strikeouts in his 25 and 1/3 innings pitched so far this year. To be this far into the season and have more walks than strikeouts is a horrible sign. Heasley has a 4.62 ERA, but his FIP is an even worse 6.38. He has been fortunate to not give up even more runs.

Bruce Zimmermann is a pretty solid prospect for the Orioles. He has been beaten up by the Yankees this year (4 starts against them already), but the Yankees will beat up a lot of pitching this year, and the Royals are certainly not the Yankees.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* The LA Angels have lost 14 games in a row. It isn't often that you'll see a team that has lost this many games in a row favored. They are in this contest.

Shohei Ohtani starts for the Angels and I understand why the oddsmakers still show him a ton of respect. Ohtani is very good, but we've seen that one or two guys can't carry a team and the Angels are a real mess right now.

Nick Pivetta has a 1.32 ERA and a 2.62 FIP in his last six starts. He's going up against an Angels lineup that has scored 1 run or less in six of their last nine games. Mike Trout is questionable for this game with a groin injury. Anthony Rendon is out with an injury. 

Boston is 19-7 in their last 26 games. The Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. 

In its current state, the Red Sox lineup is much better than the Angels lineup. The Angels have a bottom ten bullpen in baseball, while the Red Sox are a top ten bullpen in baseball.

At the plus money price, I'll back Boston.

Take the Red Sox. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The New York Mets were hit hard by the injury bug on Tuesday night. Pete Alonso was injured after getting plunked by a fastball. Alonso was said to not be able to grip a bat on Tuesday night, and he is expected to miss some time. He's clearly a huge loss for this team. Starling Marte exited the game on Tuesday with a quad injury of some sort and he is questionable for this game on Wednesday.

Sean Manaea is a bit inconsistent, but he is a good starting pitcher. Manaea has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.48 FIP on the season. The Mets are elite against right handed pitching, but they are just 15th in the majors against lefties. If Alonso and Marte aren't able to play here, the Mets would be without two of their top four hitters against lefties. 

Chris Bassitt is a pretty good pitcher, but he is streaky. Bassitt has a 6.35 ERA and a 6.40 FIP in his last four starts. The Padres have been swinging the bats better in recent games as well.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Braves -1.5* The Oakland A's are last in baseball in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Oakland has a .261 wOBA against right handed pitching. They are also tied for last with the Tigers in slugging percentage against right handers.

Kyle Wright is having a breakout season thus far. Wright has a 2.41 ERA and a 2.94 FIP on the year. His swinging strike rate has jumped from 9.8% a year ago to 12.1% so far this season.

Atlanta has been inconsistent this year, but one thing the Braves have done very well is hit left handed pitching. The Braves are 4th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Atlanta is first in the majors in ISO against lefties, so they have some serious power against left handers.

Cole Irvin is a below average left handed starter. Irvin has a 5.20 career ERA on the road with a .352 wOBA allowed on the road. Irvin has a 2.96 ERA and a 5.07 xERA on the year. His FIP is 4.12 on the season. Irvin's ERA is impressed, but the advanced metrics suggest he is due for serious regression. 

Take Atlanta -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This is a tremendous lineup with depth and power that is tough to match. The Dodgers offense hasn't been great of late, but I expect them to break out of this mini slump very soon.

The New York Mets lineup is above average as well. Lindor hitting the ball really well has taken pressure off the stars around him this year.

Trevor Williams has had a good season thus far, but his career stats suggest he is likely to regress at any moment now. Williams has a 5.46 ERA, his worst of any month of the season, in the month of June in his career. 

Julio Urias has worse advanced metrics this year than he has had the last couple seasons. He's still a good pitcher, but his whiff rate being way down is a bit concerning for him.

The weather here is warm with a temperature of about 82 degrees and the winds are blowing out at about 10 mph.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Logan Webb and Pablo Lopez are two really underrated starting pitchers. Webb is a strike thrower who isn't going to give up many big innings thanks to his control and suppressing hard contact when it comes to batted balls. 

Pablo Lopez has been tremendous at home in his career. Lopez has a 2.89 career ERA at home and a .277 wOBA allowed. He has been much better in the first half of the season than the second half (3.26 ERA compared to 4.78 in the second half). Lopez has started 10 games this year, and he has allowed 1 run or less in 7 of those 10 starts.

Bill Miller is the umpire behind home plate here, and he is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and has a very high strikes called percentage. He should help both pitchers quite a bit here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Paul Blackburn is a pretty good pitcher, but I don't think he is as good as his stats so far this season look. Blackburn has a 2.15 ERA, but a 3.34 xERA and a 3.50 xFIP. He is up against an offense in the Red Sox that comes into this game with quite a bit of momentum. Boston ranks first in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days. This Red Sox lineup has been very hard to quiet of late.

Nick Pivetta started the year badly, but he has been on a roll of late. Pivetta has a 1.59 ERA and a 2.76 FIP in his last five starts. Pivetta has a career 3.78 ERA in day games and 5.75 in night games. This is a day game in Oakland. 

Oakland's offense easily ranks last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The A's are a team I look to fade whenever I can against right handed pitching. They are up against a much better lineup here and we don't have to lay much juice at all.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers aren't a very good offense to start with and they are without Omar Narvaez and Wily Adames right now. Milwaukee has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 13 games. Joe Musgrove is throwing the ball really well right now. He has a chase rate that ranks in the 94th percentile in the majors which is way up from last year. His consistency this year has been tremendous.

The San Diego Padres offense has been struggling of late. The Padres have scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. San Diego typically walks a lot and relies on walks to get innings started. They rank 4th in the majors in walk percentage. Corbin Burnes is an elite pitcher and he doesn't walk people. Burnes has walked just 11 batters all season thus far. Burnes comes into this game in great form.

Both bullpens are well rested with their top relievers ready to go in this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros start Justin Verlander in this one. Verlander is coming off a bad start in Seattle. Before that start though, Verlander had thrown 19 innings in a row without allowing a single run. He's still been very good this year, and I expect a bounce back outing here.

The A's lineup has been terrible against Verlander. The current Oakland lineup has a .249 weighted on base average against Verlander in 118 plate appearances. Oakland is now dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. This lineup is very weak.

Cole Irvin is a below average left handed pitcher. While Houston looks mediocre against lefties, they have had horrible batted ball luck. Houston has a BABIP of just .231 against left handed pitchers, which is easily the lowest in the majors. This Houston lineup has good results against Irvin in a small sample size (68 at bats) including 4 home runs and only 9 strikeouts.

Oakland is 7-20 on their home field. The A's have no home field advantage now, and they are one of the weakest teams in baseball.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros are one of the best teams in baseball. The Oakland A's are one of the worst teams in baseball. Houston hasn't been playing great of late, but the Astros still have no clear weakness as a team. 

Oakland has the second worst lineup in the majors against righties when it comes to weighted on base average at .264. The A's also rank second to last against right handed pitching in ISO, so they don't have power. 

Cristian Javier has a great 2.43 ERA and a 2.73 FIP on the season. He has allowed only one run in his last 11 and 2/3 innings pitched.

Frankie Montas is a good pitcher, but he has been mediocre against the Astros in the past. The A's bullpen isn't good.

I would guess Houston will be without Jose Altuve here, but if he plays that is just a bonus. Houston's lineup has several underachieving stars who are likely to bounce out of their funk at any point.

I'll lay the price with the Astros here.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians rank last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching (30th). Cleveland has actually been very good against right handed pitching though. The Guardians rank 7th in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Jonathan Heasley isn't a good starting pitcher at this point in his career. The Royals youngster has walked 13 batters in his first three starts this year. He has struck out only 7 batters. His ERA at Triple A in six starts this year was only a mediocre 4.44.

Zach Plesac has really struggled this year for Cleveland. Plesac has a 5.40 ERA and a 5.06 FIP on the season. 

Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games. Whit Merrifield is finally getting going, and Bobby Witt. Jr has been fantastic in his rookie season.

The weather here is important too. The game time temperature is expected to be in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* In 84 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes, this Cardinals lineup hasn't been very good. They have a 33.3% K rate and an expected batting average of just .207. 

Miles Mikolas has shut down the Brewers lineup. The Brewers have a .261 weighted on base average against Mikolas, and an expected batting average of just .247. 

Both Mikolas and Burnes are elite at not walking batters. Batters are likely to need to be swinging away in this one. Dan Bellino is a solid under umpire too and he is behind home plate for this contest. 

The Cardinals are elite against left handed pitching, but only mediocre against right handed pitching, and Burnes is one of the best. The Brewers lineup is a middle of the road lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers are awful against right handed pitching. Detroit is last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching, and they are second to last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Detroit has scored more than 5 runs only once dating back to April 23. Detroit has scored no more than 4 runs in their last ten games. This is a bad offense that is prone to swinging and missing a lot. Triston McKenzie has multiple plus pitches and he is a tough matchup for them.

Elvin Rodriguez is a pretty good prospect for the Tigers. Rodriguez has a good curveball and pitching at Comerica should help him out.

The wind is expected to be blowing in 12 mph for this one.

Bill Miller is behind home plate here and he ranks second in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last five years. He's a very good under umpire with a high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brady Singer was a first round pick and I think Singer's upside is extremely high. Singer has thrown 16 innings in a row without giving up a run. Singer has walked just 3 batters in that period. Singer has a career high 11% swinging strike rate so far this year, and he has one of the best curveballs in baseball.

Chris Archer is an inconsistent pitcher, but Archer has been better of late and the Twins are not allowing him to go through the order a 3rd or 4th time very much since that has been his weakness in his career. 

Kansas City is without Salvador Perez who has been their most consistent hitter in recent years. The Royals lineup is below average. 

Minnesota's lineup was great last night, but had scored just 2 runs in three straight games before that. 

Adam Beck has a 3.42 strikeout/walk ratio so far this year which is extremely high. He's been a pitcher's umpire which boosts the under too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays send Alex Manoah to the mound on Friday night. Manoah is still underrated by many people. He has a 1.62 ERA on the season thus far. Manoah has a career 2.19 ERA in the first half of the season. He is at his best this time of the year, and his best is very good.

Chase Silseth starts for the Angels. He doesn't have the same upside as Manoah. Silseth lacks the control that Manoah has, and he doesn't have as many plus pitches. 

The Blue Jays lineup has underachieved all year, but they have put up 8 and 6 runs in the last two games. Toronto is better offensively than they have shown, and I think their performance will improve. 

Manoah isn't getting much respect with this line, and the Blue Jays bats are finally warming up.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and it isn't close. The Cardinals have a .377 wOBA and the second best team in the majors has a .360 wOBA against lefties. With Goldschmitt and Arenado in the middle of the lineup, this team will continue to be good against left handed pitching.

Eric Lauer is having a good season, and I think he is a pretty good pitcher. I don't think he is as good as his 2.16 ERA this year suggests though. Lauer has faced a weak group of lineups for the year and his FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. He now has to face the best lineup against left handed pitching.

Adam Wainwright has a 2.87 ERA and a 3.85 FIP and 4.11 xFIP. He is due for regression as well. Wainwright is a decent pitcher, but he is no longer an outstanding starter.

Josh Hader is away from the team and is doubtful for this one. That really hurts the Brewers bullpen. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics have had 12 games in which they scored one run or fewer in the last month. Oakland has a very high strikeout rate and Robbie Ray is a tough matchup when you are a team who swings and misses a lot.

The Seattle Mariners offense doesn't have the same upside without Mitch Haniger. Paul Blackburn has been dealing of late, and he goes up against a mediocre Seattle offense here.

Ray has been much better pitching at home. It isn't too surprising since Seattle is clearly a pitcher's park.

Paul Blackburn has a fantastic 1.91 ERA and a 2.30 FIP on the season. He's having a breakout season. He's allowed more than 2 runs only once this year. 

Mike Muchlinski is the home plate umpire here, and he is a strike caller. He should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Chris Bassitt and Logan Webb are two of the more underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Bassitt has allowed one run or fewer in 5 of his 8 starts this season. He has good control and doesn't give up much hard contact. Webb has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.10 FIP on the season. Webb also has great career splits when pitching at home. He has a 3.13 ERA and a .290 wOBA allowed at home.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire for this game. Ortiz has become a really solid under umpire. The under is 26-9 in his last 35 games behind home plate. His strikeout/walk ratio suggests he is calling borderline pitches strikes on the regular especially on strike three. 

The Giants lineup has scored just 5 runs in their last three games overall. They are shorthanded right now. The Mets have been inconsistent on offense this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals absolutely crush left handed pitching. St. Louis is easily first in the majors in both wOBA and wRC+ against left handed pitching. It shouldn't come as a big surprise with Paul Goldschmitt and Nolan Arenado in the middle of the order. 

This Cardinals lineup has also hit Jose Quintana extremely well. Quintana starts for the Pirates in this contest. The Cardinals lineup has a stellar .337 batting average and .409 wOBA against Quintana in 107 plate appearances.

Matthew Liberatore is a top 5 prospect in the Cardinals organization. He's a top 100 prospect overall. He's a lefty with multiple plus pitches. The Pirates rank in the bottom 7 teams in the majors against left handed pitching. This is a good opportunity for Liberatore to break in against a weak lineup.

The Cardinals are 17-5 in their last 22 games against left handed starters. 

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense has finally woke up. Trevor Story is on fire now, and that is fueling this offense to bigger things. Boston has scored 39 runs in their last six games. 

Robbie Ray has been away for personal reasons, but is expected back for this start. Ray hasn't been very good this year. His velocity is down quite a bit, and his swinging strike rate is down from a year ago. 

Michael Wacha starts for the Red Sox. He's coming off the injured list for this one. Wacha hasn't been good in recent seasons, and I don't put too much faith into him being a lot better just because of 5 good starts this year. He has a 1.38 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 4.23 xFIP so he is definitely due for regression.

I think the Seattle offense has some guys who will hit better in the long run. Jesse Winker is a good hitter who hasn't been very good this year. Rodriguez is a really talented youngster who I expect to pick up his level as well.

The wind is blowing out about 10 mph at Fenway which is a nice boost.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Apparently Carlos Hernandez needs some time to get warmed up. In his career, he has a 7.26 ERA with a terrible .388 weighted on base average allowed in the first half of the season. In the second half, he has a solid 3.55 ERA and a .299 wOBA. Hernandez is off to a terrible start this year. He has more walks than strikeouts on the season, and his ERA is above 9.

Vince Velasquez has never been a very good pitcher, but his biggest problem has always been his inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Velasquez is allowing 1.95 home runs per nine innings this year. The advanced metrics show that Velasquez has given up the highest percentage of hard hit batted balls this year that he has at any point in his career. 

The weather here calls for mid 80's with wind blowing out at about 15 mph. The ball will be flying well. With both of these pitchers given up hard contact and having a lot of traffic on the bases consistently, there could be some big innings in this one.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire and in the long run he has been one of the best over umpires in the majors.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets start Max Scherzer here. Scherzer has been really good against everyone in his career, but he has absolutely dominated this St. Louis Cardinals lineup. In 194 plate appearances, the Cardinals lineup has a .156 batting average and a .191 wOBA against Scherzer. They have 9 walks and 66 strikeouts against Scherzer. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and I would expect a strong performance from him here.

Jordan Hicks has the stuff to be a high quality pitcher, and the Mets are without Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo is questionable for this one. The Cardinals have a deep bullpen and the Mets are a streaky offense.

I think the pitching will have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Spenser Watkins gets the start at home against the New York Yankees in this one. Watkins is a guy with a lot of potential, but he is really struggling thus far in his young big league career. 

Watkins has a swinging strike rate of only 7.7%. He has 12 walks and 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. His xERA is in the 6th percentile of all pitchers. His average exit velocity allowed is in the 15th percentile. Watkins is giving up a lot of home runs. He also has a career ERA of 8.36 when pitching at home. Watkins is allowing opposing hitters to have a .449 wOBA at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 

The Yankees offense has woke up in a big way of late. The Yankees have scored 49 runs in their last six games! They should get to Watkins in this one. The Orioles bullpen that was excellent early in the season has really struggled in the last few weeks as well.

Jameson Taillon is a good pitcher, but he is due for a little regression. Taillon has a 2.93 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and 3.65 xFIP. The Orioles do have some power and this is a hitters park.

The umpire here is Torres and he is an over umpire. His strikeout/walk ratio has been extremely low the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed hitters. Colorado have a .362 wOBA against left handers. The Rockies have several guys who really have great career splits against left handed pitchers, so I expect them to continue to be very good against lefties.

Daniel Lynch hasn't proven himself as anything more than a mediocre or slightly worse lefty at this point in his career. Lynch has had some control problems and he gives up too many home runs. That isn't good when you are against this Rockies lineup at Coors Field. 

While the Rockies are great against lefties, Kansas City is a bottom ten offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Austin Gomber has thrown the ball well at Coors Field in his career. Gomber has a tremendous 2.52 ERA in 12 starts at Coors Field.

Gomber has also been much better in the first half of the season than in the second half of the season in his career. Gomber has a 3.87 lifetime ERA in the first half vs. a 5.25 ERA in the second half. 

Take Colorado here. 

*3 Star Play Under* George Kirby has been a top 25 or 30 prospect in all of baseball. Kirby has a fastball that runs up to 98 or 99 mph. He also has some of the best control you will ever see. His ability to put the ball right where he wants it and not walk hardly anyone has impressed scouts for years. Kirby should have a bright future in the majors.

Chris Bassitt is an underrated starting pitcher. He has good command and does a good job limiting hard contact. His highest FIP in the last three years has been 3.59, so he is clearly an above average pitcher.

The Mariners have been really struggling on offense of late. Mitch Haniger is a key cog for this offense, and without him they haven't looked good. Seattle has now scored 2 runs or less in seven of their last ten games.

Adam Hamari is the home plate umpire here and he carries a high strikeout walk ratio consistently, and is a top ten under umpire in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average. Kansas City also ranks second to last in the majors in ISO. The Royals haven't been able to string hits together very often this year.

The Colorado Rockies offense is good at home as they always are, but they are shorthanded without Kris Bryant and this isn't an elite offense like it was a few years ago.

Zack Greinke has a solid ERA of 4.01 at Coors Field in his career. Greinke isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago, but he is still at worst an average starting pitcher. The Royals bullpen has major positive regression signs due to bad batted ball luck so far this season.

Kyle Freeland has been solid all year, and he has learned how to pitch at Coors Field in recent seasons.

Even at Coors, this is a high total for two offenses that are shorthanded and a game with two pretty good starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have been an over machine of late. The over is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games. Their offense has been better, and their pitching staff is absolutely horrendous. 

Vladimir Gutierrez may be the worst pitcher on the Reds roster, and he is the starting pitcher here. Gutierrez has 17 walks and only 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. He has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.53 FIP. Gutierrez has really ugly numbers at Great American Ballpark in his career, and I don't see a reason to think he gets on track here.

Adrian Houser has been decent so far this year, but he does have ugly numbers against this Reds lineup. Houser has allowed a .394 batting average and a .461 wOBA against this Cincinnati lineup. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is a top five over umpire in the majors. Wegner consistently has a low strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 12 of their last 15 games. The Detroit Tigers have been shut out in back to back games, and they haven't scored more than 2 runs in any of their last five games. 

These two teams rank second to last and last in the majors in weighted on base average this year. The A's are slightly better against lefties than righties, but they are still only 24th out of 30 teams in wOBA. Detroit is 29th out of 30 in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Tarik Skubal has tremendous control. Skubal is averaging just 1.01 walks per nine innings so far this year. He has a 3.04 ERA and a fantastic 2.21 FIP. 

Frankie Montas has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.29 FIP on the season. Montas has allowed 2 runs or less in four of his last five starts.

The wind is forecast to be blowing in at about 12 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Baseball is a streaky sport. Offenses can go on streaks or stay in slumps for a good while through the course of the season. In the last 14 days, Detroit ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average. Oakland ranks dead last at 30th. 

The truth is these two offenses aren't good in general though, and that is especially true against right handed pitching. Where do they rank in the majors against right handed pitching so far this year? Detroit once again ranks 28th and Oakland is dead last at 30th. These two offenses are much better against lefties, but there are two right handed starters on the mound for this one.

Paul Blackburn has had a very strong year so far this year. He does a good job throwing strikes and staying ahead of hitters. Blackburn also does a good job limiting home runs.

Michael Pineda still has good stuff. He isn't terribly consistent, but the Oakland bats have scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last ten games. 

In this one- the wind is forecast to be blowing in from center field at about 12-15 mph during this game. A nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Oakland A's offense is really bad. Oakland has a .197 batting average against right handed pitching this year. Oakland has scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last nine games. The A's are up against a solid right handed pitcher here in Chris Paddack. 

Paddack has a good 3.15 ERA this year and an amazing 1.93 FIP in his four starts. He isn't likely to be hit very much by this Oakland offense. He's always had elite control, and he is averaging less than one walk per nine innings this year. 

Daulton Jeffries is a middle of the road pitcher, but he has some upside. Also, the Minnesota Twins lineup is very injured right now. Carlos Correa is doubtful for this game. Byron Buxton left yesterday's game due to a minor injury and he is questionable at best for this game. Minnesota doesn't have much lineup depth overall.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I was hoping to get a 7 on this total, but the string of unders in Major League Baseball this year has led to this one being at 6.5. I'm still going to recommend a smaller (regular 3 star rated play) play on this one. 

The splits here set up very nicely. Sean Manaea is a high quality lefty, and the Marlins have a .198 batting average against lefties so far this year. They are a bottom five offense in baseball against left handed pitching.

San Diego has been really good against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is a quality right handed pitcher. Lopez has a 1.29 ERA and a stellar 2.06 FIP on the season. 

These two offenses are at a disadvantage against the starters, and the bullpens are above average as well. This game is played at a very pitcher-friendly park.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds are 1-19 in their last 20 games. Only one of those 19 losses has been by one run. This Reds team is historically bad. Joey Votto and Jonathan India are out of the lineup now, and those two are their best hitters. 

Hunter Greene has great potential for the Reds, but he is still a project. His command isn't very consistent, and he isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game. The Reds have to be careful with Greene due to his velocity and how young he is.

Adrian Houser has a 3.21 ERA at home in his career, and he will be up against what is the worst lineup in baseball right now. The Brewers extremely good bullpen is well rested and ready to go here as well.

The Reds are an absolute mess now, and I don't think the oddsmakers have quite caught up to how bad things are for Cincinnati.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds are 3-20 on the season. This team is just horrific in every way. They are a whopping 1-18 in their last 19 games. Only one of those losses was by one run. If you had been betting the -1.5 line against the Reds  in the last 19 games, you would have cashed 17 times. 

If things weren't going bad enough for the Reds, they have seen both Jonathan India and Joey Votto, their two best players, go down this week. India has an injury and Votto is one the COVID list. Cincinnati's offense wasn't good to start with, and now it is extremely weak.

Freddy Peralta has been exceptional through his career in the first half of the season. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. 

Vladimir Gutierrez starts for the Reds, and he is a subpar pitcher. He doesn't usually pitch deep into games, and the Reds have a very weak bullpen. The Brewers have what might be the best bullpen in the National League.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay ML* The Tampa Bay Rays came back to win in extra innings on Tuesday night in Oakland. Oakland has now lost five games in a row. They have come back down to earth after a hot start. 

Corey Kluber starts for the Rays in this series finale and he has great numbers against this Oakland lineup. How good? Kluber has held this Oakland lineup to a .122 batting average and a .155 wOBA in 45 plate appearance. That is a small sample size, but Oakland's offense is one of the weakest in the majors, and I like Kluber here against them.

Frankie Montas starts for the A's. He is a quality pitcher, but he is worse pitching in the first half of the season, and he has been worse in his career pitching during day games as well.

Tampa Bay has the better defense and the much better bullpen. They also have the better lineup.

Take the Rays. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays start Alex Manoah in this one and he has been tremendous both so far this year and in his career in the first half of the season. Manoah has allowed just 4 runs in 25 innings pitched this year. He has a career 2.34 ERA in the first half of the season. 

Manoah has also been dominant when pitching at home so far in his young career. He has a 2.14 ERA and an amazing .155 batting average allowed at home. 

Jameson Taillon has been throwing the ball well for the Yankees so far this year. He has a 3.26 ERA and a 3.42 xFIP. Taillon has only walked two batters in his four starts so far this year.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire in this one, and Kulpa has been consistently one of the four or five best under umpires in baseball. He had a stunning 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year which was the second highest in all of baseball. He should help both pitchers in this game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Seattle Mariners offense isn't nearly as good without slugger Mitch Haniger in the middle of the order. Seattle doesn't have the kind of lineup depth to be without Haniger and Lewis and still consistently hit well.

Houston expects to get Jose Altuve back in the lineup for this game. Michael Brantley came back in the lineup yesterday. Alex Bregman was given the day off yesterday to be ready for this series against an AL West foe. The Astros have been very good against lefties in recent seasons. They haven't this year thus far, but they have a .221 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against lefties. That will regress toward the mean.

Houston has easily the best defense in baseball so far this year. There are multiple gold glove type guys on this defense. The Seattle defense is below average. 

Marco Gonzales is a subpar lefty and he's coming off the injury list for this start. I like the Astros to bounce back with a win.

Houston is 98-42 in their last 140 in game one of a series. They are 51-23 in their last 74 home games against a left handed starter.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. Detroit has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. This Tigers offense is struggling in a big way right now. 

Clayton Kershaw hasn't walked a batter so far this year. Kershaw has 23 strikeouts, and he carries an impressive 2.65 ERA with a fantastic 2.07 FIP. Kershaw is throwing a lot more sliders this year, and the results have been fantastic. 

The Dodgers offense is very good. There is no denying that fact. The Dodgers do rank 4th in wOBA against right handed pitching and 19th against lefties. They face a young lefty in Brieske here.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Every single year he ranks near the top or at the top in strikes called percentage as well as strikeouts/walks. He should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland ML* The Oakland Athletics have started the season out better than expected, but I still believe Oakland is a bad team. I think they could still finish with 70 wins or less for the season. When they are laying this kind of price, I'll be looking to go against them when I can.

Cleveland isn't a great team by any means, but the Guardians have a pretty decent bullpen backing up Aaron Civale here. Civale has been hit hard so far this year, but this will be the worst lineup he has faced yet this year and it isn't even close.

Frankie Montas has poor career numbers in the first month of the season. The Oakland bullpen is a problem, and this should be a close game throughout.

We are getting a pretty good plus money price going against a weak Oakland team. I have to take it.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs start Mark Leiter Jr. here. Leiter Jr. doesn't seem to have good enough stuff to be effective in the majors. He has struggled badly in the majors with his command every time he has been called up. Leiter has major problems with the long ball also- and that has been the case in quite a few of his years in the minors as well. He's the type of guy who can really give up big innings in a hurry.

Charlie Morton is nearing the end of his career. Morton has had a great last few years, but there are quite a few signs that he is slowing down. His 6.32 ERA and 5.49 FIP this year are a really bad start. He looked good against the Reds (everyone has), but he has been in trouble early and often in his other two starts.

Alfonso Marquez has some of the lowest called strike percentages of any umpire in the last few seasons. He is clearly an over umpire, and he is at it again this year with a ridiculously low strikeout/walk ratio of 1.79.

The Cubs are first in the majors in wOBA this year and the Braves are 10th. Two good offenses and a total that is set too low.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Under* Both Triston McKenzie and Patrick Sandoval have excellent stuff. They both have multiple strikeout pitches. They both have the same problem- they can struggle with walks sometimes.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this game. Miller is one of the two best under umpires in all of baseball. Year after year his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio show how he is a great strike caller.

Miller should help both of these youngsters by giving them the corners much more than the average umpire would.

The Guardians offense isn't as good as their season numbers would suggest. They are due for regression in batted ball luck.

The Angels do have several guys who are free swingers and McKenzie can take advantage of that.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Philadelphia Phillies have great numbers against left handed pitching so far this year, but they have a batting average on balls in play of a ridiculously high .371. The Phillies are good against lefties, but they aren't as good as they look so far this year. That .371 average on balls in play has to regress toward the mean. 

Eric Lauer is a middle of the road lefty, but he is backed by an elite bullpen in Milwaukee. The Brewers bullpen gives them a huge edge over the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen.

Aaron Nola is often overvalued by the betting markets. Nola has a great curveball, but he isn't consistent. Nola has a 5.52 ERA and a 5.83 FIP on the season this year.

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Phillies. I understand the Phillies lineup is better and Nola is a pretty good pitcher, but this price is too good to pass up. I'll take the big underdog here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Houston Astros still have a good lineup, but Carlos Correa was a pretty big loss. Jose Altuve is injured and out of the lineup now, and he is an even bigger loss. Houston has only scored more than 4 runs in one of their last ten games. Houston has scored 2 runs or less in six of their last nine games.

Toronto starts Alex Manoah in this one, and he is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Manoah's consistency really impresses me. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 games he has pitched six innings or more in.

George Springer is questionable for this game, but even if he doesn't play the middle of this Toronto order is loaded especially with Guerrero Jr. swinging the bat extremely well right now.

Jose Urquidy's worst month has been the first month of the season in his career. He has started the season slowly again this year. 

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have won the first two games of this series. The Cardinals are a quality team, but I believe the Marlins are underrated at this point. Most of the metrics point to the fact that they have been at least somewhat unlucky to have the record they do so far this year. Miami is a better team than they have been in recent years, and I still believe they will show that.

I would never make a bet solely based on this information, but there are some pretty good angles backing teams trying to avoid a three game sweep when they are at home.

Pablo Lopez pitching at home has been amazing throughout his career. Lopez has a 2.89 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP at home. He also has an ERA of more than a full run better in the first half of the season compared to the second half. 

The Cardinals are going with a bullpen game here. That should put pressure on their middle relievers. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox both have top five offenses in baseball. 

Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays and he has been very shaky this year. In his two starts he has an 11.81 ERA and an 11.86 FIP. Berrios has walked five batters in 5.1 innings and he has allowed 3 home runs. 

Nick Pivetta has a 3.91 ERA in day games in his career, but his night game ERA is an ugly 5.93. He has a WHIP of 1.492 in night games. Pivetta has a 5.49 ERA in 17 starts at Fenway Park. He has an ERA of 9.53 and a FIP of 8.53 through two games.

I think both starters have blowup potential here and with the total dropping to 9, I'm on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies lineup is a pretty good lineup, but they aren't exactly the mashing crew that they were a few years ago. The Chicago Cubs are the same way. These are middle of the road lineups with a posted total of 11 runs.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here. Kulpa had an extremely high 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year. He ranks top 8 in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last four seasons overall. He's a solid under umpire.

Austin Gomber has pitched in ten games at Coors Field in his career and he has a sparkling 2.03 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.956. That is likely to regress some, but he has done a great job in this hitter friendly park and seems to have somewhat of an edge.

The weather here calls for a slight breeze blowing in from left field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The gametime temperature for this one at Progressive Field in Cleveland is expected to be 36 degrees with a 10 mph wind blowing straight in from center field. Cleveland is a ballpark that is changed by the winds and weather more than most people realize. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here on Sunday.

Alex Wood is certainly an above average lefty. I don't think the Guardians lineup is very good in general, and I think they will be a little worse against left handed pitching.

Aaron Civale does a good job limiting hard contact, and that should help quite a bit especially in these conditions.

We have two bullpens who are clearly better than the average bullpen in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have an underrated pitching staff. Miami is likely to have quite a few low scoring games this year, especially at home in a park where it is at least somewhat pitcher friendly.

Philadelphia starts Ranger Suarez here, and though he had a disappointing first start to the season, there are a lot of very sharp pitching analysts who think he has a high upside. Suarez has multiple plus pitches and is capable of generating a lot of swings and misses.

Trevor Rogers is a very good young lefty for the Marlins. Rogers had a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 14.0% last year, and he also doesn't allow much hard contact. 

Jeremie Rehak is the umpire at home plate here and his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk numbers show from the last few years show him as a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers start Tarik Skubal in this one. Skubal is a strike thrower who has had problems giving up too many long balls in his first couple big league seasons. Skubal has tremendous stuff though, and his spring training 2.08 ERA is encouraging. 

Skubal has an amazing 21 strikeouts on just 81 at bats against this Royals lineup. Kansas City doesn't have a ton of power, and the wind will be blowing in from center field for this game.

Brad Keller starts for the Royals, and he was terrible last season. His second worst month of the season in his career is April. He is known for slow starts. 

Detroit is better than most people believe and I don't think they should be getting this plus money price with the starting pitcher with the much higher upside.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* I have the Toronto Blue Jays rated higher than the New York Yankees. Both teams are very good, and the AL East in general is loaded. Still, we are getting a plus money price on a good starting pitcher who is healthy. Kevin Gausman's slider is still tremendous and the Yankees offense has been inconsistent so far this year.

The Blue Jays have one of the best offenses in baseball. Toronto's young hitters are coming into their own, and this team has just continued to improve with the addition of Matt Chapman and Raimel Tapia. 

Luis Severino is a really talented starting pitcher, but he is coming off an injury and isn't likely to pitch too deep into the game. 

The Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games in New York. They are 7-1 in their last 8 as an underdog. 

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets start Max Scherzer here. Scherzer is past his prime, but he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. Scherzer had a 2.46 ERA and 2.97 FIP last year. How has he done against this Phillies lineup? He has dominated the guys who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Phillies hitters have a .144 batting average and a .205 wOBA against Scherzer.

Aaron Nola is a good pitcher, but he is clearly a level below Scherzer. Nola is capable of dominating, but he isn't nearly consistent enough. The Mets lineup has a solid .266 batting average and a .334 wOBA against Nola. 

The Phillies still have bullpen issues and Nola sometimes can't work deep into the game. Nola has had slow starts in his career. His first couple games ERA is noticeably worse than his overall ERA.

I'll grab the small plus price here.

Take the Mets. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies aren't a good team, but they aren't bad enough to be this big of an underdog against a bad Texas Rangers team starting Martin Perez here.

Martin Perez and Chad Kuhl are both poor starters at this stage of their careers. Perez as a huge favorite makes very little sense to me, even if it is against a subpar team.

The Rockies are much better against left handed pitching, and Perez doesn't have plus strikeout stuff by any means. Colorado should get plenty of scoring chances here.

Texas is an improved offense, but the Rangers are no better than mediocre on offense. They are still weak in the rotation and have a below average bullpen.

In a game that I believe is a coin flip, we are getting a big plus money price. I'll fade Texas here and back the Rockies.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tanner Houck starts for the Boston Red Sox here. Houck was excellent last year with an 11.35 strikeout per nine inning rate. He has made several mechanical tweaks and has really shown his real potential. Many in the Red Sox organization expect him to have a breakout year this year. He is a former first round draft pick. 

Jordan Montgomery is often underrated. Montgomery does a good job inducing soft contact and that can really help him against quality lineups like Boston. Montgomery has a career 3.72 ERA against Boston. 

The Yankees bullpen is a top 3 bullpen in baseball. The Red Sox bullpen is a top ten bullpen in baseball.

The conditions will be cold for this one and the ball shouldn't be carrying too well. 

Home plate umpire here is Tripp Gibson who is a top five under umpire in baseball. Both pitchers will be helped by his generous strike zone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* The New York Yankees are a good team, but I think this price is just too expensive. 

New York starts Luis Severino who is expected to be on a limited pitch count. Severino is good pitcher who is coming off a major injury. The team will want to be careful with him. The Yankees bullpen is very good, but it isn't terribly deep. They used their top guys heavily in yesterday's extra inning contest. 

Nick Pivetta is an inconsistent pitcher and there is always a chance that he gets shelled here, but he has been much better on the road than at home. Also, Pivetta's best month of the year in his career has been April- and it isn't close. He usually starts the season well.

In games 2 and 3 of the first series in the MLB season the underdogs have had great value in the last 15 years. In fact, dogs of +125 to +175 are actually 73-60 straight up for an ROI of 34% since 2006. This one fits.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Marlins start Pablo Lopez here and he is clearly an above average starter. Lopez has an ERA of 3.53 in the first half of the season compared to 4.97 in the second half of the season. 

The Giants are a good team, but they are banged up and this offense isn't what it was at the end of last season. There's no Buster Posey or Evan Longoria. 

Carlos Rodon is a really good pitcher, but this is a really big price to be laying against a Miami team that I think will be much improved this year. 

The Marlins have an above average bullpen and their lineup is young and will improve from a year ago.

In games 2 and 3 of the first series in the MLB season the underdogs have had great value in the last 15 years. In fact, dogs of +125 to +175 are actually 73-60 straight up for an ROI of 34% since 2006. This one fits.

Take Miami. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have what might be the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Baltimore traded away their one really solid bullpen arm in Cole Sulser recently. I expect Baltimore's bullpen to be terrible this year. 

John Means should be a #3 or #4 starter, but on the Orioles he is the ace. Means is a decent pitcher, but the Rays have hit him hard. Means had a 5.40 ERA in five starts against the Rays last year. The Rays current lineup has a great .377 wOBA against Means. Tampa Bay starts the season with Wander Franco in the lineup and I think they can do damage here.

Baltimore has some solid bats with Mountcastle, Mullins, Santander, and Mancini. The Orioles project as a team that will be much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Shane McClanahan is a pretty good pitcher, but he actually has worse numbers at home than on the road.

The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Tampa Bay.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland ML* The Cleveland Guardians (that's going to take me a long time to get used to) start the season out on the road at Kansas City. 

Zack Greinke comes home to Kansas City and starts the season opener for the Royals. Greinke isn't a bad pitcher now, but he is far from the pitcher he once was. Greinke is 38.5 years old and has had an ERA north of 4 in each of the last two seasons. 

Shane Bieber is a top three pitcher in baseball, and he starts for Cleveland here. Bieber goes against a Kansas City lineup that is no better than mediocre. There are a lot of free swingers in the Royals lineup.

Cleveland is 16-5 in their last 21 games in Kansas City. They have a huge pitching edge here and the price isn't very much to lay.

Take Cleveland.