*3 Star MLB Astros/Yankees Moneyline CASH* The Houston Astros are 54-29 on the road this year. Houston knows how to win away from home. 

Houston's lineup is stacked. Let's take a look at the Astros offensive numbers on the road this year. Houston as a team has a .351 OBP, and the second best team is at .336. The Astros are striking out at a rate of only 17.9%, which is the lowest in the majors.

C.C. Sabathia is a mediocre pitcher at this stage of his career. I waited this line move out because the public clearly wants to take the Yankees, but I have to grab this price now on the underdog. Sabathia isn't likely to get through this Astros lineup without quite a few problems. 

In the past ten years, taking teams that are getting less than 50% of the public bets in the game and are underdogs of +101 to +133 in the postseason against a team with a win percentage of 50% to 62% is an impressive 95-68 for an ROI of 27%.

A price play here. 

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Yankees/Indians Game 5 CASH* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber is coming off a bad start, but before that start he was on a run that no pitcher could match all season. Kluber has been extremely dominant this year. I'm not going to let one start ruin my opinion of him. Kluber had a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate during the season. He allowed less than 1 home run per nine innings. 

Kluber has a great history against the Yankees overall even with this last start being a bad one. The Yankees lineup has combined to hit .184 against him. 

C.C. Sabathia has been pretty good this year. I'm also encouraged by the fact that Sonny Gray could pitch in long relief here, and all of the Yankees bullpen arms are well rested. 

Both teams will use their bullpens at the first signs of trouble here, and these are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's a large reason for this bet. 

The wind will be blowing in from right field here and the temperature will be cool. The conditions favor the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Monday Late Night MONEY* The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet at Chase Field on Monday night. Arizona has to win this one to stay alive. They'll start their ace Zack Greinke here. 

Greinke was amazing at home all year. He had a 2.87 ERA and allowed a batting average of only .207 at home this season. He didn't pitch well in his last couple starts, but he has decent numbers against the Dodgers, and I see him pitching well with his back against the wall in this spot.

Yu Darvish has been great down the stretch this year, and in 63 plate appearances the DBacks hitters have a miserable .190 average against him. That's a small sample size, but Darvish has great stuff and is well rested.

Chase Field's roof status isn't yet available. If it is open here, the wind will be blowing in 15 mph. Expect both teams to use their best relievers in this spot, which certainly helps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland Indians ML* This wasn't a game I expected to pick, but this line is out of control. How can the Yankees be -161 here? 

Luis Severino is a very good pitcher, but he's still a youngster that has to prove he can perform under the bright lights in the playoffs. This is an excellent Indians lineup he has to face.

Trevor Bauer pitched great in game one, and down the stretch of the season he has been very consistently good. I expect the Indians bullpen to be all available here, and the Yankees have a bit of a question mark with Chapman since he threw so many pitches yesterday. 

I think New York should be favored here, but this price is too high to pass on.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros had the top offense in baseball all year long. This Houston offense is the real deal. Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, and the rest of the bunch are so good. 

I certainly don't trust Doug Fister to get this Astros lineup out on a consistent basis. Fister has below average stuff and I think there's a good chance he won't get very deep into this one.

The Boston Red Sox offense has been better at home. Boston faces Brad Peacock here. He was good this year, but he is inconsistent. He is relatively wild, and Boston should make him work.

A big key here is the weather. Winds of 15 mph blowing out to center field and left field are expected here. That brings this system into play: on a total of 9.5 or lower with wind blowing out at 5 mph or greater and a temperature of 50 degrees or warmer the over is 81-50 (62% overs) in the last ten years in the postseason.

I think both teams get a lot of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Playoff Totals SMASHER* The Cleveland Indians host the New York Yankees in what should be a really exciting series. The temperature will be fairly moderate in this one and the wind will be blowing in at about 5 mph from left field. 

Vic Carapazza is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. He rates as one of the top five under umpires in the majors in my umpire ratings. He will both help pitchers in this one.

Trevor Bauer really pitched well this year. He has a 3.88 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. Bauer has only allowed 2 homers against this Yankees lineup in 160 plate appearances. He has allowed a solid .305 wOBA. 

Sonny Gray has great numbers against the Indians lineup. In 196 plate appearances, the Indians have a very low .273 wOBA against him. Gray has great stuff and I think he'll pitch well here.

These are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's very important in the playoffs. Both managers will be quicker to use their top relievers more often and stretch them out.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Super System* Blake Snell has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 7 games. Kevin Gausman is coming off a bad start, but he has been very good overall in the last couple months. I expect both teams to have some key bats out of the lineup or pulled during the game here. 

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Brault is a young prospect for the Pirates who has pitched well in a small sample size. He's a guy with a high upside, and the Pirates are really high on him.

Gio Gonzalez has been very good this year. Gonzalez has given up a lot of soft contact, and he's been good at getting out of jams with ground balls or strikeouts.

The final game of the regular season has been a big under day in the past. How big? Since 2008, the under is 51-25 (67.1%) when the posted total is 8 runs or higher.

The under is 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 Sunday games. The under is 6-0-2 in the Pirates last 8 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0-1 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Washington. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The final day of the regular season has been a great day to play unders in the past several years. It makes sense to me. Players are ready to go home after a long season. That is especially true for bad teams. These are two really bad teams with zero to play for in this one. 

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. 

This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

*4 Star MLB 100% System Play SMASHER*

Luis Perdomo has a 3.55 ERA against the Giants in his career. Johnny Cueto has held the Padres lineup to a miserable .184 batting average. Cueto is at his best in day games, and he faces a very weak lineup in this one.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have a key bat missing in Olson (injury) and Adrian Beltre is expected to be out for the Rangers. Mengden has pitched better late in the season. Cole Hamels is generally at his best in the last month of the year.

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I had to wait for the lineups and the umpire here, but when all that information came out, it confirmed my initial lean.

Tampa Bay is sitting out Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, and Lucas Duda here. The Orioles are without both Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo. There are some very questionable hitters in both of these lineups.

The home plate umpire here is Vic Carrapazza. He is one of the best under umpires in the league. He'll help both of these guys who typically struggle with walks.

Unders do very well in the last weekend of the MLB regular season. Teams under .500 against each other are 60% to the under in the last ten years when the total is 9 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Braves take on the New York Mets here. Sean Newcomb takes the mound for the Braves. Newcomb is a guy with a fairly high upside, and the Mets have struggled of late against lefties. It's no surprise, since the Mets are without almost all of their best hitters from the start of the year.

This game fits a late season totals (under) trend. Both teams are out of the playoff contention and we'll see a lot of new faces in the lineup here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Toronto* The Toronto Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series. Toronto is definitely playing hard to the finish, and the Red Sox have far more pressure on them.

The key to this one for me is Toronto starting Marco Estrada. Estrada was awful early in the year, but he has turned things around nicely of late. Estrada has allowed 5 runs in his last four starts combined. Estrada also has a great track record against Boston. This Red Sox lineup has a miserable .162 average against him in a huge sample size of 202 at bats.

Rick Porcello has been mediocre or worse this year. The Red Sox are 4-12 in Porcello's last 16 starts vs. the AL East. The Red Sox are 2-5 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chase Field is a great place for hitters with the roof open. In the past ten years, the over is 56% at Chase Field when the roof is open and the total is 9.5 or lower. That number is above 60% in the past two years alone.

Matt Moore and Robbie Ray are two lefties who give up a bunch of hard contact. Moore has a 6.51 ERA on the road this year, and he's facing a DBacks team that should have all its regulars back for Tuesday's contest. This team has some tremendous power hitters against lefties. Moore has allowed 26 homers this year.

Robbie Ray is certainly a good pitcher, but his home/road splits are very interesting. Ray has a 4.37 ERA at home this year vs. a road ERA of 1.79. Last year, he had a 5.36 ERA at home. He struggles at Chase Field more often than not.

At a good price on a key number, I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles are going to miss the playoffs this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are out of the playoffs as well. 

I ran some extensive queries on the last week of the regular season in baseball and found that two teams who are out of the playoff race usually equates to value on the under in the last few games of the season.

From game 156 of the season (162 game season), the under is hitting 61.2% in the last ten years when both teams have won 50% of their games or less and the total is at least 7 runs. This one fits that angle.

Williams has pitched great at home all season. He is good at keeping the ball in the yard with his sinker, and the Orioles rely on homers quite a bit. 

The Pirates offense is a mess right now, and Kevin Gausman has been very good late in the season.

The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague road games. The under is 8-0 in Williams last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies battle on Monday Night

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians send Corey Kluber to the hill on Sunday. It's hard to put into words how amazing he has been since June 1. Kluber has allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of his last 21 starts. Most impressive to me is his strikeout/walk ratio of late. Kluber has allowed only 3 walks in his last six games. During that span, he has 56 strikeouts. Amazing stuff. 

Mike Leake has been very good for Seattle since coming over in a trade. Leake has a FIP of 2.45 or lower in each of his four starts with Seattle. Leake has allowed only a .219 wOBA against the Indians lineup in a decent sample size. 

What about Kluber against the Mariners? In a huge sample size, the Mariners has a wOBA of .282 against Kluber.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zack Greinke here. Greinke has been lights out at home this year. Greinke has allowed only a .196 average at home this year. He's been great in general all year, but his best work has come this month. Greinke has a 1.23 ERA this month and opponents are hitting .147 off him this month.

Adam Conley starts for the Marlins and he's been getting torched on a consistent basis of late. Conley has a FIP of 7 or higher in each of his last four starts, so he's been fortunate to not give up more runs. With their acquisitions during the year, the DBacks have gotten much better against left handed pitching.

The DBacks are 22-4 in Greinke's last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. The Dbacks are 13-1 in Greinke's last 14 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. 

The Marlins are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in game one of a series that is vitally important to their playoff hopes. They can still catch the Cubs in the NL Central, but it will take a really hot finish. Otherwise, they'll need to be able to get into position for the NL Wildcard. 

Zach Davies has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. Davies is coming off a poor start, but I think there's a good chance he bounces back with a solid start here.

Jake Arrieta is dealing with a hamstring injury, and his walk rate has crept up in recent outings. Arrieta isn't 100% healthy right now.

This game fits into a late season underdogs system that has a 23.5% ROI in the past ten seasons.

The team has won 45% or more of their games and is an underdog of +101 to +155. The opposition has a winning percentage of 50% or higher. It is game one or game two of a series. This is hitting at a 55% rate in the last 305 games despite it being an underdog system.

The Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Milwaukee.  

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals are right in the middle of a playoff race. St. Louis has to win games like this. Cincinnati doesn't have anything to play for other than pride right now.

I ran a data query to see how teams with a win percentage between 50% and 55% on the year have fared on the run line in the last 15 games of the regular season. Here are the results: when the opposing team has a win percentage of 43% or higher, betting the favorite on the -1.5 line has produced an ROI of 14.7% over the last ten years. The Cardinals fit this system.

In Luke Weaver's last five starts, the Cardinals have won all five by a minimum of three runs. Weaver has allowed a total of 5 runs in those 5 starts. He is dealing right now. He has zero walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts. Weaver was highly touted for a long time, and he seems to have gotten it of late. 

The Reds will be without Billy Hamilton and probably Eugenio Suarez as well here.

Rookie Davis was a subpar pitcher in Triple A this year, and I see no reason for us to expect him to pitch well in his second stint in the majors this season (the first didn't go well).

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star Play Under* By the long term trends, taking the under when two teams are playing that are fighting for a playoff spot late in the season has been a good move. 

From game 147 of the season, when two teams with a win percentage of 50% or higher meet and the total is 8.5 or higher, with the wind blowing in at all, the under is a whopping 64-28 (70% Wins). 

The wind will be howling in from right center field here at 20 to 25 mph. That's a significant wind to where it will be very hard to hit it out of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. It's possible for the big sluggers like Aaron Judge, but there won't be any cheap ones.

Jose Berrios and C.C. Sabathia have both been solid this year, and these two bullpens have been pitching well of late.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 20-7-2 in Sabathia's last 29 home starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB DOG of the Day* The Philadelphia Phillies have won 5 of their last 7 games. Bad teams who are playing well late in the season have been good to bettors over the long run. There are a few angles I like here.

First, let's look at Yu Darvish. Darvish has pitched worse against bad teams in his career. Since the 2013 season, if you have been fading Darvish and going with the underdog who has won less than 50% of their games, you are 21-19 and up $2,009 as a $100 per game bettor. Fading Darvish as a big favorite has been a great strategy.

Second, during game one and two of a series,  underdogs of +165 or less in game 150 or later going against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher have delivered an ROI of 18.4% in the last 10 years. The ugly underdogs have been good bets this time of the year. 

Aaron Nola has definite shutdown potential. He's inconsistent, but we're getting a huge price here, and he's very capable of throwing a shutout. The Phillies offense has been hitting well of late, and the bullpen is much improved. In fact, the Dodgers and Phillies bullpens have the same FIP in the past month.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Orioles have the worst weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. Baltimore has been very streaky this year on offense, and they have been ice cold of late. Boston is dealing with some injuries right now. Hanley Ramirez is questionable for this one. The Red Sox are worse than average in the majors in wOBA in the last couple weeks as well.

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. It also helps a lot to get the wind blowing in from center field at 10-12 mph during this game with moderate temperatures. 

Drew Pomeranz has been solid all year. Kevin Gausman has been very good of late, and he has a stellar track record against AL East opponents, especially at home.

The under is 4-0-1 in Gausman's last 5 starts vs. the Red Sox. The under is 3-0-1 in Pomeranz's last 4 starts vs. the Orioles. A combined 7-0 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Eduardo Rodriguez actually has a better average allowed (.229) on the road than he does at home (.243). Rodriguez has had some bad batted ball luck on the road. Rodriguez is a guy with a high upside and he comes into this game throwing the ball well. The Rays are a team that strikes out a lot and Rodriguez averages 10 strikeouts per nine innings.

Jake Odorizzi has been really bad this year. The Rays are 1-7 in his last 8 home starts. Odorizzi has a 4.52 ERA, but his FIP is much higher at 5.79. He's fortunate to not have done worse on the year. Boston's lineup has a .376 wOBA against him. 

Tampa Bay's bullpen has been absolutely gassed in the last few days, and that could hurt a lot here as well.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here, and it would be hard to overstate how amazing he has been since June. In 16 of his last 20 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less. Kluber is averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings, and only 1.66 walks per nine innings. He should continue his dominance in this one.

Danny Duffy comes off the disabled list here. Duffy is a guy who nibbles on the corners though and home plate umpire Angel Hernandez is one of the better under umpires in baseball. That should be a big help.

Winds blowing in on a moderate temperature day help the under as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Night Fast CASH* The Philadelphia Phillies are a bad team who is red hot of late. There are some strong systems about backing bad teams who get hot late in the season. The thinking here is this is a team who has called up a bunch of youngsters, and guys like Hoskins are really helping this Phillies team win games. They are playing with no pressure and having fun.

Oakland is 22-49 on the road this year. The A's start Daniel Mengden who has never been a highly touted prospect, and his ERA is 7.07 on the year. The A's traded away a lot of their bullpen, and that's an area of weakness now.

Mark Leiter has remarkable splits on the season. He has a 1.87 ERA at home on the season. He faces off against an Oakland offense that is one of the weakest in the American League. In the matchup of two bad teams, I'll take the team playing good baseball with a lot of young talent. 

Take the Phillies. 

*3 Star Play Under* Andrew Cashner has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Cashner has been particularly good at home. Cashner has an ERA under 3 at home on the year. He has allowed only 8 runs in his last 5 starts. 

Cashner has been much better in the second half of the season. He has lowered his walk rate drastically. He allowed a .316 weighted on base average in the first half of the season. He has allowed only a .269 weighted on base average in the second half of the year.

Felix Hernandez will start here and will be on a pitch count. Hernandez threw it well in Triple A starts. Andrew Albers is expected to be first in relief here, and he has been very solid this year. 

The Rangers are badly beaten up right now. Adrian Beltre is playing badly injured and may or may not be in the lineup. Mike Napoli is out with an injury. Carlos Gomez is doubtful with an injury.

This game means a lot to both teams. I think the total is a little too high.

The under is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 home starts. The under is 8-3 in Hernandez's last 11 starts vs. the Rangers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* In a large sample size, the Mariners have absolutely crushed Martin Perez. Seattle's lineup has a .333 average and a .406 wOBA against Perez in 172 plate appearances. 

The Mariners are the much healthier team here. Adrian Beltre is out with an injury for the Rangers. Mike Napoli is questionable with an injury. Carlos Gomez is questionable with an injury.

Mike Leake isn't a great pitcher, but he isn't bad either. He's backed by the better bullpen in this one, and this Mariners bullpen is more rested than the Rangers bullpen.

In a game that should be high scoring, I trust the Mariners offense more than the Rangers offense.

One final thing that helps some as well. Vic Carrapazza is behind the plate here, and in my database of umpires, he ranks in the top five in units won for road teams in the past five seasons.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Angel Hernandez is a good under umpire. He always ranks in the top 10 or 12 umpires in the league in percentage of pitches called a strike. He'll help both pitchers in this one.

Tampa Bay has been ice cold of late. The Rays have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 9 games. Jaime Garcia is a middle of the road lefty, and the Rays have been bad against left-handed pitching this season.

Chris Archer is having the best season of his career if you look at his underlying stats. His FIP is 3.36 and xFIP is 3.30. He has pitched well against the Yankees in the recent past, but hasn't gotten any run support.

In the last 25 games of the regular season, teams with a win percentage of 45% or higher that are playing the final game of a series see the total go under at a 55.5% clip (in the last 5 seasons). 

The under is 6-0 in Archer's last 6 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 10-0 combined angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire for this game. Meals is one of the best over umpires in the game. That is a big boost here especially since we have two starting pitchers very capable of getting hit hard, and two bullpens who are exhausted and limping to the finish.

Dylan Covey is in over his head in the majors. The White Sox called him up too soon. Covey has an 8.08 ERA and a 7.94 FIP. He is allowing more than 3 home runs per nine innings. He is walking almost as many guys as he strikes out. 

Sam Gaviglio isn't as bad as Covey, but he isn't good. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and he is prone to allowing big innings too often.

The White Sox have been the worst bullpen in baseball in the last two months. In the past 30 days, the Royals are in the bottom five bullpens in baseball. There should be scoring chances late.

The White Sox have scored 8 runs or more in each of their last three games. Abreu is on fire and Anderson and Moncada are swinging it well also. 

The Royals have potential to score in bunches and they'll get chances here against Covey and a terrible bullpen.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Ariel Miranda has been getting absolutely blown up on the road. Miranda has a 6.16 ERA on the road this year. He has allowed a mind-boggling 23 home runs on the road in only 73 innings pitched. His weighted on base average allowed is .376 away from home. 

The Texas Rangers are very capable of putting up a big number, and Miranda's extremely high walk rate and high home run rate allowed make this a very dangerous spot for him.

Cole Hamels isn't the same guy he was a few years ago. He averages only 5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a pitch to contact guy now, and his hard contact rate has gone from 28% two years ago to 35.4% this year. 

The Mariners offense is very solid against left handed pitching. The wind is blowing out here on a warm night in Texas.

The over is 8-0 in the Rangers last 8 games following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. A 20-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners start Erasmo Ramirez here. Ramirez has been a streaky pitcher in his time in the majors. Ramirez has made five straight quality starts. 

Ramirez also has been great in the past against this Angels lineup. The Angels lineup has a very bad .287 weighted on base average against him. In 130 plate appearances, they have only 2 homers off him. 

Ramirez has great numbers at home this year. Ramirez has a 2.70 ERA and opponents have a .200 average against him at home this season. 

Parker Bridwell has allowed 13 runs in his last 6 innings pitched. This Seattle lineup is a dangerous one, and I think they can get to him as they have in the past. He's allowed a .387 wOBA to them in a small sample size. 

The Angels bullpen was used up a lot yesterday after Heaney left with an injury. The Mariners bullpen is more rested.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners have to win games right now. Seattle is 70-71 after a win last night. Seattle has gotten healthier in the last week, and the Mariners do have the offense to put together another run to try to win in the American League Wild Card race. 

Andrew Heaney has been absolutely crushed in his four starts for the Angels this year. Heaney has allowed 49.1% of balls hit off him to be hard hit balls. That's higher than anyone you'll ever see in the majors. Heaney is allowing more than 5 home runs per every nine innings. 

Andrew Albers has been a decent starting pitching option in the minors, and he has a solid 3.43 ERA in four starts. The Angels offensive lineup isn't deep. Trout is great, but the lineup around him isn't very good.

The Angels are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. They are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 16-0 angle.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres start Dinelson Lamet here. Lamet has the highest upside of any pitcher in the Padres organization. Lamet has been his best at home. He has allowed opposing hitters to bat only .188 in his starts at home this year. 

The Padres are 38-34 on the year at home. This Padres team has been far more scrappy than I expected them to be this year. They have some young hitters who have helped the team quite a bit in the last couple months.

Jack Flaherty starts for the Cardinals and he isn't considered a high upside guy. In addition, the Cardinals have Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, and Dexter Fowler dealing with injuries and they are questionable. Jedd Gyorko is on the DL as well.

Take the plus money price at home on the Padres.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Diamondbacks ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks have won 5 straight contests against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers have lost three straight series. 

Los Angeles has missed Corey Seager badly of late. He's doubtful to start in this one, and Seager is such an important player in this lineup. 

Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt got good injury news on Tuesday and he is questionable to get back in the lineup here. David Peralta and Jake Lamb had a day off to rest on Tuesday and they'll be back in the lineup here. 

Kenta Maeda has allowed a .403 weighted on base average against the Diamondbacks in his career. 

Taijuan Walker has a 2.71 ERA on the road this year. Walker has allowed only one run in his last three starts combined. 

This fits into a late season system of playing underdogs who with a win percentage of 55% or higher in the last month of the season. Over the past 6 years, this has a 10% ROI system. 

A team that has won 12 straight as a big dog? I have to grab this one at this price.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* We have two starting pitchers in this one who are very capable of getting blown up at any point. 

Bartolo Colon has a 6.25 ERA and a 5.05 SIERA on the season thus far. Colon has a swinging strike rate of just 5.4%. He is allowing 1.68 homers per nine innings. This Tampa Bay Rays team has a ton of power.

Jake Odorizzi's advanced numbers are even worse than Bartolo Colon's. His FIP is 5.97 and his SIERA is 5.19. Odorizzi is giving up a lot of hard contact and a ton of fly balls this year. He is allowing 2.15 homers per nine innings. He's been at his worst in July and August, where he's combined to have an ERA of 6.34. 

I'm not high on either bullpen, and I think they'll have to be in this game for quite a while after subpar starting pitching. 

The over is 7-0 in Odorizzi's last 7 home starts. The over is 8-0 in his last 8 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds start Homer Bailey here. Bailey has been bad at home in his career in general, but he's been awful in the last couple years. Bailey also has notably awful splits in day starts. How bad? In his last 8 starts in day games, he has allowed a mind boggling 46 runs. In 30 and 2/3 innings, he has allowed 46 runs and his WHIP is 2.50. It's hard to ever find numbers worse than that.

Milwaukee's lineup has a combined .413 weighted on base average against Bailey in a pretty large sample size of 112 at bats. 

While I don't think Cincinnati has necessarily given up on the season as some teams do, the Brewers have a lot more to play for than do the Reds. Milwaukee clearly still has a chance to make the postseason, but they have to win games like this. Chase Anderson has a 2.96 ERA and a 3.71 FIP on the year, so he's been very solid.

The Brewers have a clear bullpen advantage as well.

The Reds are 0-7 in Bailey's last 7 home starts. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts following a team loss. A 12-0 angle.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* Chris Flexen isn't good enough for the majors right now. Flexen only made 7 starts in the minors higher than High A ball, and it is showing. 

Flexen has more walks than strikeouts through 7 starts. Flexen has a 6.89 ERA and a 6.90 FIP. He has a 9.77 ERA on the road this year. His OBP against is .488 on the road. 

The Astros are putting a lot into this series. It's hard to tell how a team will respond to such emotional games, but Houston clearly wanted to win badly on Saturday. They should want it bad again Sunday, and they face the Mets worst starting pitcher here.

Mike Fiers isn't a consistent starter either, but the Mets lineup he'll face is awful. The Mets are without Conforto, Cespedes, and all the guys they have traded away. This is the worst lineup in the majors right now in my opinion.

The Astros have a clear bullpen advantage as well.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Max Scherzer starts here for the Nationals and he has allowed one run or less in 9 of his last 15 starts. Scherzer has been absolutely dominant on the season. 

Milwaukee's offense hasn't been nearly as good in the past month or two as they were early in the season. The under is 35-13-4 in their last 52 games overall. A lot of the young hitters have been struggling of late.

Woodruff isn't a great pitcher, but missing Bryce Harper in the middle of the order is definitely hurting the Nationals pretty badly against righties. 

Both teams have well rested bullpens and that is a plus here. 

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here and Cuzzi is a great under umpire because of the amount of times he gives pitchers the corners of the strike zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox offense is miserable against right handed pitching. Two of their best young hitters in Moncada and Delmonico are out for this game with an injury. Jose Abreu is listed as questionable as well after suffering a minor injury on Friday night. 

Chris Archer is putting together the best season in his career by a large margin. Archer is fanning 11.29 batters per nine innings. He has a 3.66 ERA and a very good 3.17 FIP on the season. He should be great in this matchup.

Carlos Rodon has been excellent overall in his last five starts, and he's up against a free swinging Tampa Bay team that has struggled against lefties this year. Rodon can rack up the punchouts, and his upside is unquestionable.

Blaser is a good under umpire and the wind will be blowing in here.

The under is 3-0-1 in Tampa Bay's last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Archer's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in the White Sox last 7 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 vs. the AL East. A 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Fast CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers start Jimmy Nelson here, and he is a guy who has had a brilliant season this year. He has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.10 FIP, so he has actually been unlucky overall. Nelson is striking out 10 batters every nine innings, and he's cut his walk rate in half this year.

Tanner Roark started the season terribly, but he has been much more solid of late. Roark has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his last 7 starts. The other game he allowed 4 runs. 

The Brewers bats have cooled off a lot in recent weeks, and the Nationals aren't nearly as good against right handed pitching without Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup.

Mark Ripperger is the umpire here, and he's one of the top six or eight under umpires in baseball. He consistently calls a high percentage of strikes, and his strikeout/walk ratio is excellent.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in baseball. Combine Doug Eddings being behind the plate and Zack Greinke pitching at home with a total posted this high, and I like the under.

Zack Greinke has a dazzling 2.36 ERA at home this year, and opponents are hitting a miserable .197 against him. Greinke is allowing only a .238 OBP at home. Those are dominating numbers. 

Kenta Maeda has allowed a single run or less in five of his last eight starts. After starting the season poorly he has really come on.

This is a get away day game and I expect a big bat or two to be out of this lineup.

Eddings will help both pitchers and I expect a relatively low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Wednesday MLB Best Bet* The Miami Marlins offense has some real pop in the middle of the order. Stanton is absolutely on fire like no one we've seen in recent years when it comes to hitting home runs. Marcell Ozuna is very underrated and I really like Yelich as well.

The Washington Nationals are amazing against lefties, and that has gotten even better with Trea Turner and Jayson Werth coming back to the lineup. The top six in this order are all really good against lefties. 

Adam Conley is a guy who walks too many guys and is prone to the big inning. In a relatively small sample size, the Nationals have an amazing .477 weighted on base average against Conley. It's a very tough matchup for him.

Stephen Strasburg is very good, but the Marlins have given him trouble in the past, particularly when pitching at home. The Marlins have a very good .347 wOBA against Strasburg. Stanton has 3 homers against him and Ozuna has 2. 

The over is helped a lot by Sam Holbrook being behind the dish. He consistently rates as one of the best over umpires in the business. 

The over is 15-4-2 in Conley's last 21 starts. The over is 37-16-4 in Strasburg's last 57 home starts. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles offense is on fire right now. Baltimore ranks first in the majors by a mile with a team batting average of .300 in the past month. The Orioles are well known for their ability to hit a bunch of homers, but hitting for average has been a nice surprise for the team.

Ariel Miranda starts for the Mariners and he is allowing more than 3 homers per nine innings on the road this year. Miranda has walked nearly a batter an inning in his last few starts, and he is in a very dangerous spot here against a red hot Baltimore team with tons of power.

Ubaldo Jimenez is a really bad pitcher. Jimenez occasionally fires a good game, but his underlying stats show how bad he is. Jimenez has a 6.57 ERA and his FIP is 5.64. He constantly is pitching with people on base and his wOBA at home this year is a brutal .415.

Look for lots of runs in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Over* Chris Smith has been a career minor league pitcher. The A's are giving him a try in the big leagues, but he just isn't good enough. Smith has a 5.56 ERA on the year, and he's been fortunate to have that. His FIP is 6.36 and he is giving up 2.27 homers per nine innings. He also walks more than 3 batters per nine innings and strikes out only 5.15 per nine innings. His hard contact rate has been extremely high. Smith has allowed 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. 

Troy Scribner is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Scribner has been ridiculously lucky so far in the bigs. Scribner has a 4.00 ERA, but his FIP is 6.57 and his xFIP is 5.96. Scribner carries an insane .116 batting average on balls in play so far this year. Basically, everyone is hitting it right at the defenders so far when Scribner is pitching. That won't continue forever.

Both of these pitchers have real blowup potential. Both offenses have been better of late. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 contests. The A's have scored 6 runs or more in four of their last six contests.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Indians ML* Corey Kluber at even money? Sign me up. Kluber has been absolutely dealing for the last couple months. Since June 1st, Kluber has had a strikeout rate of 11.00 batters per nine innings or higher in every game except one. That's tremendous strikeout stuff. At the same time, Kluber has only 19 walks total in his last 16 starts, so he doesn't give away free passes. 

Luis Severino has been very good this year as well, but he has had a couple blow ups. Severino isn't quite as consistent as Kluber, and he's still a youngster that hasn't hit his peak. 

The Yankees strike out at the 10th highest rate of any team in baseball. New York will likely be punched out frequently against Kluber here. 

The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's Best Bet* The Houston Astros blew a big lead last night in Los Angeles and lost 7-6. I think this is a nice bounce back spot for the Astros. Houston is averaging 5.93 runs per game this year against right handed pitching. They are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handers, and it isn't even close. 

Houston gets to go up against Ricky Nolasco in this one. Nolasco is a guy who is way past his prime. Nolasco has a 5.05 ERA and a 5.25 FIP on the season. Houston's lineup has crushed him in the past. The Astros have 12 home runs and a terrific .390 weighted on base average against Nolasco in 199 plate appearances.

Charlie Morton is having the best season of his career. The Angels offense has a superstar in Mike Trout, but their depth is severely lacking. 

The Astros are 41-20 in their last 61 road games. This is a very fair price on the much better team.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings calls strikes at a higher percentage than any other umpire in the majors. Eddings has seen all of his games with a total of 8 or lower go over the total this year, but games higher than that have been solid under plays. More importantly, Eddings has a strikeout/walk ratio of 3.33, which is MUCH higher than the average umpire. He likes punching guys out. 

Tyler Skaggs has a lot of potential and he's been good at home in his career. The Astros offense has definitely been in a funk of late. Houston has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games.

Brad Peacock is striking out 11.85 batters per nine innings. Eddings should help him a good amount. The Angels offense isn't deep at all. The under is 21-7-4 in their last 31 vs. a right handed pitcher. 

The under is 7-1-1 in Skaggs' last 9 home starts. Take the under.

*4 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves rank in the top eight in the majors against left handed pitching. They face a subpar left handed starter in Kyle Freeland here. 

The Rockies were a very fortunate team for a long time this year, and as their luck has turned south they have hit the skids here in August. Colorado could be without Charlie Blackmon here. Blackmon is questionable after being pulled from last night's game with a minor injury. Blackmon is the key to this offense. 

Sean Newcomb is a high upside guy who misses bats at a very high rate. Look for him to pitch well here.

The Rockies are 5-18 in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers are first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Carlos Rodon is a good lefty, but they should at least make him work and Rodon is very prone to high pitch counts and leaving the game early. 

While the Tigers bullpen is definitely bad, the White Sox bullpen has actually been worse in the past month after trading multiple top guys away at the deadline. 

Buck Farmer isn't a good pitcher, but he hasn't been terrible. The White Sox are without Moncada. Davidson and Leury Garcia are questionable with injuries as well. This White Sox offense has struggled badly against right handed pitching this year.

I see this as a tossup game. I'll take the plus money.

Take Detroit. 

*4 Star Play on Texas Rangers ML* There are two reasons for this bet. First, I can't ignore Cole Hamels' success late in the season over the course of his career. Hamels has consistently been at his best in the last month or two of the season. He's been throwing the ball well again lately.

Second, Sean Manaea appears to have something wrong with him. I think Manaea likely has an injury of some sort. His start was pushed back a few days, and his velocity has been down a few ticks in his last couple starts. Manaea has great potential, but he has been getting crushed of late. In his last 12 and 2/3 innings pitched, he has allowed 21 runs. 

The Rangers bullpen has actually been significantly better than the A's bullpen in the past month. Oakland traded away key pieces here.

The Rangers are a whopping 28-5 in Hamels' last 33 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas Rangers rank number one in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. Texas has gotten a big boost from Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus being red hot and guys like Rougned Odor providing power in key spots. 

The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in five of their last six games. The Angels are a completely different lineup with Mike Trout in there, and CJ Cron has been better of late. 

The two pitchers here have major weaknesses. Martin Perez allows a lot of baserunners and doesn't miss bats. Poor control and not being able to miss bats is an ugly combination.

Troy Scribner is an extreme flyball pitcher and the Rangers have plenty of home run hitters. Scribner had a 4.63 ERA in Triple A this year, and he is due for regression in the bigs right now. His FIP sits at 6.13 with an ERA nearly 3 runs lower. I think the Rangers get to him here.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play on Twins -1.5* I have to fade Derek Holland with his form of late. Holland has had a game by game ERA of 31.50, 23.63, and and 81.00 in his last three outings. Look back more and you'll see the problems started earlier. Holland has an eye popping 23 walks allowed in his last five starts. That is something you almost never see. 

The Twins lineup has been red hot of late, and there's no reason to expect Holland to slow them down any. Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco have been on fire and it should continue along with the rest of the Twins.

Jose Berrios has excellent stuff. He went through a brief period of struggling, but he pitched well in his last start. He's up against a White Sox team that has been terrible against right handed pitching all year.

The White Sox are easily the worst bullpen in the majors in the last 30 days with a 5.84 xFIP (second worst is at 4.87). The Twins are actually in the top ten in the last 30 days in this measure.

Take Minnesota -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals are second in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors in the past month. This team is red hot offensively right now. The number of really good young hitters they have is amazing. 

Luis Perdomo has allowed 4 runs or more in six of his last seven starts. The youngster seems to have hit a wall late in the season after starting the year pretty well. He benefits from pitching most of the time in a pitcher friendly park, but this is a negative park shift for him.

Carlos Martinez has been solid this season. He goes against a Padres lineup that is second to last in the majors in wOBA against righties this year. The Padres better hope Martinez doesn't have his good stuff, or he is likely to rip right through this lineup that swings and misses way too often.

The Padres young bullpen has fallen apart of late as well.

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Arizona Diamondbacks have to keep winning games. They went through a slide of late, but have won the first two games against a Mets team that is both short handed and has nothing to play for. 

Arizona is 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with the Mets. They are 5-0 in their last 5 at Citi Field. They have the matchup advantages here again.

Chris Flexen was pitching in High A ball earlier this year. He pitched well there and in Double A and then the Mets moved him up to the majors. He isn't ready. Flexen has 16 walks in 22 innings in the big leagues. He has more walks than strikeouts. He has a 6.55 ERA, and his FIP is even worse at 7.26. 

The Diamondbacks start Zack Godley, who is having a great season. Godley is averaging 9.56 strikeouts per nine innings. He has a 3.13 ERA and a 3.27 FIP. I've been impressed with his usage of his offspeed pitches this year. 

The Mets aren't likely to get many innings out of Flexen, and their bullpen is worn out. Arizona has some big advantages here.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies aren't the same away from Coors Field. Colorado ranks 28th in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. That's behind the weak hitting San Diego Padres. 

Colorado goes up against a quality lefty in Danny Duffy here. Duffy has given up quite a few runs in his last couple starts, but his strikeout rate has been really impressive. Duffy has 16 strikeouts in his last 11 innings pitched. He's missing bats and his FIP has been low the last couple games. He is due for some positive regression.

Jon Gray has a 4.74 ERA and a 3.63 FIP and 3.64 xFIP on the year. He has allowed a .357 BABIP which is unlikely to continue (though they are always higher at Coors Field). Gray has allowed 3 runs or less in his last five straight starts.

The wind is blowing in at almost 10 mph here, which is a significant help. Also, the temperature is moderate for this time of the year in the mid 70's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona DBacks Moneyline* The New York Mets have gotten rid of several of their best hitters. This offense is a shell of its former self. 

Arizona's Taijuan Walker has great upside, and he has pitched much better on the road this year than at home. Chase Field is a hitters park, so that makes sense. Here, he'll be facing a Mets lineup that is very weak at the bottom.

Robert Gsellman isn't a guy who can be trusted in any way right now. Gsellman throws his fastball way too much. It's a pitch that has been crushed all season long. He continues to throw it at a very high rate. Gsellman is 1.55 homers per nine innings and the wind is blowing out here. The DBacks have a lot of pop in the middle of the lineup.

The Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in Gsellman's last 4 starts. 

The Diamondbacks need to stop their recent skid, and I think going against a Mets team that has thrown in the towel for the season is a good way to turn things around.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins take on the New York Mets on Sunday afternoon at Citi Field. 

Miami isn't as deep offensively with Justin Bour out of the lineup. The Marlins are better against left handed pitching, and there they are against a very good right hander in Jacob Degrom. The bottom of the Marlins order is really weak and Degrom should be able to take advantage.

The Mets have traded half the team away and this offense can't keep producing as well as they have been for the course of the season. They've traded away too many key parts. Adam Conley is not a great pitcher, but he has an ERA under 1 in three career starts at Citi Field. 

Jacob Degrom has an ERA of 2.07 at home in his career. His ERA during day games is a superb 1.73 in his career. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Late in the season, playing bad teams who are on a winning streak and are underdogs is a very good strategy. In the past ten years, if you bet on every +125 or larger underdog with a win percentage of 50% or lower that has won at least two straight and is playing a team with a win percentage of 55% or lower, if you are a $100 per game bettor you'd be up $9,852. 

It makes sense to me because you're finding a team that is still fighting hard late in the season, and they are playing another team that is far from spectacular. Momentum means a lot late in the year to these teams that don't have a lot to play for. 

The Braves are 7-23 in Julio Teheran's last 30 home starts, and yet they are a -140 favorite here? I know the Reds are bad, but I have to take them at this price. Robert Stephenson is a big question mark, but he has big upside. 

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* Playing unders in warm weather months when the game is played at a dome that is closed has been a winning strategy the last five years. Closed roof unders with a total of 9 or more in July and August have cashed at 55.5%. It makes sense to me, the totals all get inflated a bit because there is typically more scoring in the summer months. In a game with a dome it obviously doesn't matter much at all what the weather is like outside.

That's certainly not the only reason I like this one. McHugh is a pitcher I'm pretty high on. Over the course of his career he has been pretty good at suppressing homers. Hitting homers is the way Oakland scores. The A's generally can't string together big innings.

Kendall Graveman has allowed the Houston hitters who will play in this one to hit only .216 with an OBP of .271 against him in a fairly large sample size of 88 at bats.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Boston -1.5* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale has been absolutely amazing this year. How about lately? Sale has allowed 1 run or less in five of his last six starts. He has a FIP of 1.14 or lower in 5 of his last six starts as well. This is a guy who is absolutely locked in.

Sale has been great against the Yankees as well. His career FIP against the Yankees is 1.91. This Yankees team crushes right handed pitching, but they are actually worse than the league average against left handed pitching.

C.C. Sabathia returns from the DL and beat writers have said he runs the risk of re-injuring his knee by returning now. Not how I would want to enter a game against a team that is crushing left handed pitching right now.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*4 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers have made it clear that they are on a mission this year. Their record was 22-18 after 40 games. Take a look at the standings now, and you'll see that this team is in the middle of a run like we haven't seen in baseball in a long time.

I don't like laying this much juice, but I do feel it is warranted here. Michael Fulmer is a good pitcher, but this Dodgers offense is elite. Fulmer has struggled in his last few starts. His SIERA on the year is now above 4. The Tigers have the worst bullpen in baseball. The Dodgers have one of the top three bullpens in baseball.

Ryu started the season slowly, but he has allowed a total of 3 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. This is certainly a spot where he could get hit some since the Tigers are solid against lefties, but their production against lefties has dipped a good amount since trading away J.D. Martinez.

The Dodgers are an insane 50-9 in their last 59 games. They have many edges in this game. Detroit has nothing to play for either.

Lay it.

Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* Michael Wacha gives the St. Louis Cardinals a starting pitching edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wacha's velocity is up in the last month, and it has made a big difference in his overall results.

Chad Kuhl is too inconsistent for the Pirates. Kuhl has been torched by this Cardinals lineup. The Cardinals have a .349 average against him and a .419 OBP. 

The Cardinals have scored a whopping 8 runs or more in six of their last ten games. This offense is on fire. The Pirates offense is much less consistent, and I like the Cardinals chances if this is another high scoring contest.

Two teams headed in different directions right now.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Play on Arizona ML* Zack Godley has been tremendous this year. Godley has a sparkling 2.95 ERA and a 3.17 FIP on the season. Godley has allowed a total of five runs in his last four starts. He has a 2.72 ERA on the road this season.

Ervin Santana has allowed four runs or more in four of his last five games. He has slowed down quite a bit after a red hot start to the season. He is due for more regression based on his strand rate. 

The Diamondbacks offense has Peralta back and with J.D. Martinez in the middle of the lineup this team is so much better.

The Twins had to play a double header yesterday, which makes me like the DBacks a bit more here. 

Lay the small price with Arizona.

Take the Dbacks. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers -1.5* I have to fade James Shields here. I'm never excited to back Andrew Cashner, but he has done a nice job limiting hard contact in his last few starts. 

For a long time, Cashner was walking way too many guys, but he has just one walk in his last two starts. He faces a White Sox team that doesn't walk, especially against right handed pitching. This White Sox lineup is one of the five worst in the majors against righties. Cashner has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last six starts.

James Shields is terrible. Shields is fade worthy nearly every time out there. His weighted on base average allowed to lefties this year is a ridiculous .444. Shields has allowed 13 home runs to lefties in just 30 innings pitched against them. Overall, he's allowing 2.36 homers per nine innings. Expect some bombs from Texas here.

The White Sox bullpen is dead last in xFIP in the past month. They traded away key bullpen arms, and this bullpen is struggling in a big way now. The Rangers have a rare bullpen advantage.

Take Texas -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Play on Rockies -1.5* The Colorado Rockies offense can pile up the runs in a hurry at Coors Field. They put up 17 runs last night against the Braves.

While the first thought most would have is to fade a team coming off a huge win, it has actually been a very good angle to back the team coming off a blowout win. In the past 10 years, betting the -1.5 line on a team coming off a 10 run or larger win is +5.1% ROI.

Luke Sims isn't good at all right now. Sims is getting hit hard every game, and now he goes to play a day game at Coors Field. Sims has an ERA of nearly 6 and his FIP is 6.31. He is allowing 2.08 homers per nine innings. He had an ERA over 7 in Triple A last season. He is in above his head right now.

Jeff Hoffman has been inconsistent, so I don't have a ton of faith in him, but his upside is much higher than Sims. Hoffman has had several good games at home, and the Braves are without Matt Kemp still. 

Take Colorado -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks have been amazing on offense at home, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA on the road. The under is 33-22 in their road games. 

Charlie Morton is having a breakout season. His swinging strike rate sits at an impressive 10.5% and his FIP and xFIP are actually slightly below his ERA. He hasn't been lucky this year, he has just been good.

Taijuan Walker has been better on the road than at home this year. Walker is a guy with a high upside and the Astros haven't been quite as hot on offense of late.

David Peralta is expected to miss this game for Arizona. Carlos Correa and Evan Gattis are out for the Astros. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Royals let me down with a late inning collapse last night, but I'm back on them here. Danny Duffy is a quality lefty, and as bad as this Oakland offense is in general, they are much worse against left handed pitching. 

How big is the difference in splits for Oakland? The A's are 18th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching because of their power against that handedness. Oakland is 27th in the majors in wOBA against lefties because they don't have that same power against lefties.

The Royals offense has been streaky all year, and they have been excellent for the past few games. Blackburn is a pitch to contact guy who is due for regression.

Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers offense has tailed off in production drastically in the last few weeks. There are a bunch of youngsters who were red hot earlier in the year, but many of them have cooled off a lot recently. 

The Pirates start Gerrit Cole here. Cole has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. He has allowed 3 or less in his last seven starts in a row. Cole has great career numbers against Milwaukee. The Brewers have a .163 batting average against him in 80 at bats. 

Jimmy Nelson is coming off a terrible outing, but overall this year he has been excellent. Nelson will face a Pirates lineup that has disappointed this year. They are also without Polanco here who got injured. Look for Nelson to get back on track.

The under is 20-4 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's offense is severely weakened right now. They traded away a key guy in Yonder Alonso, and Oakland is running out several guys who are hitting around the .200 mark on the season. 

The Royals offense has been streaky all year long, and they have been on fire the last three games. I don't see any reason to believe that Chris Smith will slow them down here. Chris Smith is a veteran minor leaguer who is getting a shot in the majors. The statistics show he isn't good enough.

Smith has a 5.29 ERA and a 6.52 FIP, so he has actually gotten a little lucky so far this year. Smith is giving up 2.38 homers per nine innings. He's backed by a terrible bullpen as well.

Jason Hammel isn't great, but he has pitched better in the last month. He's backed by a bullpen that is throwing the ball well right now. They are well rested also.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Subway Series continues here as Sonny Gray and Jacob Degrom face off. 

Sonny Gray has been racking up the swinging strikes at an amazing rate of late. Gray has been routinely registering better than 15% swinging strikes in recent outings, and that is about as high as you ever see. 

Jacob Degrom has been spectacular in the last couple months. He's getting more strikeouts per nine than he ever has before, and he's giving up less hard contact in the past month as well.

The weather is fairly moderate here which is helpful. Adam Hamari is a good under umpire with his big strike zone.

The Mets offense isn't what it used to be now that they made so many big trades. I think Degrom can at least slow down the Yankees.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Toronto Blue Jays have heated up a bit, and they still have some chance in the AL Wild Card race. It may not be a good one, but the Blue Jays have a pulse. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have been ice cold of late. They have a .264 wOBA in the last 14 days. That is nearly 10 points worse than the second worst offense in the majors in that same time frame. Tampa Bay's offense has come crashing down to earth.

Marco Estrada has had a bad season, but his last three games has been his best stretch of the year. Estrada has gone 7 innings in each of his last three outings. He has allowed just 4 runs in those 21 innings pitched.

Blake Snell puts a ton of guys on base, and Snell is up against a Blue Jays lineup that is definitely better against lefties than righties. Josh Donaldson is heating up and Snell should be pitching himself into trouble often here. 

Too short of a price on the better offense and better bullpen against a subpar starter.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jakob Junis is allowing nearly 2 homers per nine innings this year. Junis is allowing an extremely high rate of hard contact. More than 40% of batted balls hit off him this year have classified as hard hit balls. That is among the highest in the league. Junis has been good in the minors, but he has some refining of his game to do before I trust him in the majors.

Jharel Cotton has been a big disappointment this year. Cotton has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts. He has allowed 2 home runs or more in 5 of his last 8 starts. Cotton is a guy who is struggling with his command inside the zone right now. He's hanging way too many pitches.

The A's bullpen isn't any good now after trading away many key pieces. The Royals middle relief is a weak area, and Junis isn't known for pitching deep into a game.

The Royals are a really streaky offense, and they have been great the last couple games. I think they keep it going here. 

The A's have plenty of left handed power hitters who should give Junis trouble here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale in this one. Amazingly, Sale has thrown a shutout in 5 of his last 7 starts. The guy is rolling right now. The Yankees are great against right handed pitching, but against lefties they rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average. 

Jordan Montgomery was amazing early in the year, and he went through a brief rough stretch. He has been really good again lately with his strikeout rates being through the roof. He's a very talented youngster who should slow the Red Sox down here. Boston is without Dustin Pedroia. 

These are two of the top five bullpens in baseball. That's a big key when you play a low under like this one. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals have won eight straight games. They are suddenly in the middle of the playoff race. 

The youth of this team has led the way. Tommy Pham ripped the team recently for underperforming on offense. The Cardinals have now scored 64 runs in their last 7 games. That's a pretty amazing feat. 

R.A. Dickey is way past his prime, and he's been uncharacteristically struggling with walks in his last few outings. This Cardinals lineup isn't forgiving right now, and I think they'll get to him.

Michael Wacha has always had drastic home/road splits. This year he has a 2.67 ERA at home. Opponents have a weak .283 weighted on base average against Wacha in St. Louis.

The Braves are without a couple key hitters in their lineup, and they have the weaker bullpen as well.

Take the Cardinals -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been ice cold of late. For the past few weeks, they have gone into a slump. The last two days, they have been shutout on consecutive days. First, Carlos Carrasco shut them down on Friday night. Then, Mike Clevinger shut them out on Saturday. Now, they face arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball in Corey Kluber. 

Kluber has 10 strikeouts or more in 10 of his last 11 games. He has walked more than one batter in only two of those 11 starts. That's amazing stuff, and it is why he now owns an amazing 2.43 FIP for the season despite struggling early in the year.

Austin Pruitt is a good young starter who has a bit of a unique delivery. Seeing him the first time should be tough for most teams. He has had a couple real nice starts of late. 

Mark Ripperger is behind the dish and he's a very good under umpire.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Run Line ROUT* The St. Louis Cardinals are on fire of late. This is a team that badly underachieved on the offensive side for a long time this year. No longer. This team lead by youngsters like DeJong and Pham are absolutely tearing it up right now. 

St. Louis has scored 8 runs or more in six straight games. They have a chance to score a bunch again here. Luke Sims throws for the Braves here. He doesn't look ready for the bigs to me. Sims had a 7.56 ERA in Triple A last year. His ERA was 3.75 in Triple A this year, but his FIP was was 4.27 and he has had major control problems. Sims allowed 1.83 home runs (very high) in Triple A the last two years combined. He's allowed three home runs in his first two big league starts. This doesn't sound like a guy who should slow down an offense like the Cardinals.

Carlos Martinez is solid and the Braves lineup is without Matt Kemp and Johan Camargo. The Cardinals bullpen has improved since putting Rosenthal back in the closer role.

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Friday FAST CASH* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here. Pivetta allowed just one hit and one run in his first start against the Mets this year. Pivetta has a 3.89 ERA at home on the season. He strikes out more than one batter per inning, and his minor league stats show upside. 

Pivetta's downside is he allows a lot of fly balls and can give up homers, but the Mets lineup is much weaker now without Duda or Bruce. The Mets offense has overachieved all year and that has led to some inflated totals in their games now. 

Seth Lugo is nothing better than average, but the Phillies are one of the worst offenses in baseball. 

Surprisingly enough, the Phillies bullpen has been really good in the past month. They rank 7th best in the majors in FIP in the past 30 days. They have some youngsters throwing it well. The Mets rank 14th best in FIP in the past month. 

With an umpire behind the plate who I consider an under umpire, I think this one is a full run too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Play on Cardinals ML* The Cardinals have won the first three games in this interleague series against the Royals. These two are heated rivals and there's no doubt the Cardinals will stay plenty motivated to keep their rivals from KC down. 

Kansas City got some really bad news about Salvador Perez being out at least a couple weeks, and they blew a game they should have won last night. It can be hard to bounce back from those kinds of nights.

St. Louis has always been a team that had a much higher upside than they were showing. The Cardinals offense has come to life behind Pham, DeJong, Martinez, Molina, and Carpenter. This is a scary offense to face right now.

Jason Hammel just isn't good enough, and he's a guy who is giving up 3 runs or more every single start. Hammel's velocity is way down, and I don't see him being a guy who slows down these red hot Cardinals bats.

Lance Lynn has always been much better at home than on the road, and that has been the case again this year. Batters are hitting .199 against him at home this season.

Take St. Louis here.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Two very good young pitchers square off on Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati. I think Dinelson Lamet and Luis Castillo both have a very bright future ahead of them.

Lamet is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he has thrown his best baseball in his last couple outings. 

Castillo has faced a bunch of very good lineups this year, but he goes up against one of the worst in baseball here. Castillo can throw it 99 mph with regularity and he has good movement on his fastball.

This is an early get away day game where the lineups are usually a little softer than the normal game.

We have a bit of an under umpire here, and I think the value is good enough to take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners have a significantly better offense than the Oakland A's. Seattle just traded for Oakland's most consistent hitter a couple days ago (Yonder Alonso). The Mariners have a lot to play for now, and the A's are completely out of it. The youth movement is on, and this team will struggle the rest of the way.

Oakland's bullpen was decent earlier this year, but after trades and injuries this is a terrible bullpen. The Mariners bullpen has gotten healthier, and they rank in the top five in bullpen FIP and xFIP in the past 30 days. 

Yovani Gallardo isn't very good, but Jharel Cotton has struggled with command all year and I see his edge over Gallardo being minimal if anything. 

The Mariners have the value at this price.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Doug Eddings calls strikes at a highest rate of any umpire in the league. His strikeout/walk ratio is always among the highest in the majors as well. Anytime he is behind home plate, I at least take a look to the under. A day game that starts at 12:10 pm EST as the ultimate get away spot makes me like it even more. 

Get away day spots usually lead to a couple key players being out of the lineup. That's pretty likely in this one. 

Additionally, the temperature for this one is set to be 75 degrees with a slight breeze in from center field.

I'm not particularly high on Senzatela as a pitcher, but the Indians offense has been inconsistent this year. 

Trevor Bauer has thrown the ball really well two games in a row, and he definitely has a high upside if he can command his pitches well enough. Bauer has a career ERA a full run lower in day games than night games as well.

At 10 with all the factors mentioned above, I definitely like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The  Los Angeles Dodgers send Kenta Maeda to the mound here. Maeda started the season slowly, but he has been dealing of late. Maeda is a master of soft contact. He is giving up a very low 26.8% hard contact rate on the season. Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 22 innings pitched. 

Zack Godley has been tremendous this year. His swinging strike rate of 14.0% is truly mind boggling. This guy is getting hitters to chase at bad pitches on a consistent basis. Godley has pitched back to back shutouts leading into this game. 

Both of these offenses are good, but these pitchers are in good form. Chase Field isn't a great hitters park when the roof is closed as it will be here. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Chicago Cubs are third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Matt Moore isn't a good lefty at all. Despite playing in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors, Moore has a 5.80 ERA on the year. He has allowed 4 runs or more in five straight outings.

Jake Arrieta certainly isn't what he was a couple years ago, but he has been better of late. Arrieta has allowed only 2 runs in each of his last four starts. He has thrown at least six innings in each of those games as well.

The Cubs have the bullpen advantage here. The Cubs clearly have the lineup advantage. The Giants lineup ranks in the bottom three in the majors in all major offensive categories.

Take the Cubs -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are the better rested team despite being on the road here. Kansas City played a double header yesterday, and now they must turn around and play against their rivals from St. Louis.

Many NL teams struggle to have the depth necessary to use another quality bat. The Cardinals aren't one of those teams. This is a deep lineup, and they have a lot of potential in this spot.

Ian Kennedy is a pure fly ball pitcher, and the Cardinals have plenty of guys who can send it deep. Kennedy has been worse at home than on the road this year, and his velocity isn't what it was a few years ago. 

Carlos Martinez hasn't been quite as good of late, but he is a much better pitcher than Ian Kennedy. Martinez has had a good strikeout rate in his last couple starts, and I think he'll be better in this one.

I believe St. Louis is the better team, and this is a fair price.

Take the Cardinals. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels Angels start Ricky Nolasco here. While I'm not all that high on him overall, Nolasco has thrown the ball much better of late. He has allowed one run or less in 4 of his last 7 starts. He's up against an Oakland offense that is subpar here, and this is clearly a pitcher-friendly park.

Sean Manaea hasn't pitched well in his last few starts, but I'm very high on his upside. Manaea faces an Angels lineup that isn't very deep. I think he has a good chance to turn it around here, and his recent struggles have pushed this total upward.

Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and the under is 225-162 (58.1%) in his career behind the plate. He's one of the best under umpires in the game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this one. Miller is my single favorite umpire to play an under with. Miller has a really high strikes called percentage every year. While other umpires vary from year to year, Miller is consistently a very pitcher-friendly umpire. Sunday is a get away day, and Sunday games have stayed under the total at a higher rate than any other day of the week. The under is 41-20 in Miller's last 61 Sunday games behind the dish.

Both of these starters have had issues with walks in their young careers, but Miller should help that quite a bit. He'll give them the corners far more than the average umpire. The Braves offense is inconsistent, and the Marlins are better against lefties than righties.

The wind is blowing in here and I see this total as inflated a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays have the same record this year. 

The perception is that Chris Archer is a much better pitcher than Jimmy Nelson, but the numbers this year don't show that to be the case. Archer deserves a very slight nod because he pitches in the American League, but Nelson's numbers match him almost across the board.

Nelson has a 3.37 ERA, a 3.11 FIP, and a 3.12 xFIP this year. How consistent has he been? Nelson has a game xFIP of 3.32 or lower in nine straight starts. He's upped his strikeouts in a big way and cut down his walks in half.

I see this as a 50/50 game, so if you give me odds this big, I have to take the dog.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are a really powerful offense at home. It can be hard on any pitcher to find their way through this lineup at Coors Field, but it is particularly daunting for a rookie.

Nick Pivetta has been giving up a ton of hard contact, and a lot of fly balls. That's not a recipe for success at Coors Field. Pivetta has allowed soft contact only 15% of the time this year, and his hard contact rate is 37.7%. Only 40% of batted balls have been grounders against him this year. 

Jon Gray can be hard to figure out, but he certainly has high upside. His strikeout rate is improving in recent games, and he's up against a Phillies offense that is the worst in baseball. 

I'll fade Pivetta in this environment and look for a comfortable win or Colorado.

Take Colorado -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has been tremendous of late. Cole has allowed two runs or less in 8 of his last 9 games. That includes a very good start against San Diego in his last outing. 

The Padres are a team that strikes out a lot, and Cole's strikeout numbers have improved quite a bit in recent weeks. I see him having another strong start here.

Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. Lamet has been inconsistent this year, but at times he can flat out dominate. The Pirates lineup has been disappointing this year, and they do strike out at a pretty high rate. Lamet is averaging a whopping 11.71 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

With temperatures falling into the 60's during the game, the ball shouldn't call as well as normal for an August game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rich Hill has been great of late. Hill has allowed a grand total of five runs in his last five outings. Hill has 5 walks and 40 strikeouts in those games. After struggling earlier in the year, he is back to dealing.

The Mets offense didn't put up anything last night, and I don't think they'll score much here. This is an offense that is due to regress to the mean after a lot of good fortunes so far this season.

Seth Lugo is a decent pitcher, and this is still a pretty good pitcher's park. He certainly has to go against a very good lineup here, but I think he'll hold his own at least.

The two bullpens both rank in the top ten in the past month, and the Dodgers are arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

This total is too high. The under is 5-1 in Hill's last 6 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jharel Cotton is really struggling with his command both in and out of the zone in the last couple months. He's walked four guys or more on three occasions in his last seven starts. Cotton has also allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. 

Mike Trout is on fire right now, and he and the Angels offense should get some chances against Cotton and a terrible Oakland bullpen. After the deadline, this A's pen is significantly worse than it was before.

Troy Scribner starts here for the Angels. Scribner had a 4.16 ERA and a 4.73 FIP in Triple A this year, which makes me highly doubt his staying ability in the majors. He has a history of problems with walks. This Oakland offense has some solid power against right handed pitching. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Yu Darvish was rocked in his last outing, but he has elite stuff. I think he starts out with a good outing against a Mets offense that is due for regression to the mean. The Mets have overachieved offensively and their totals have become a bit inflated based on their ridiculous over run for the season.

Not many pitchers have been as locked in as Jacob Degrom of late. Degrom has allowed more than 2 runs in only one of his last nine starts. He has double digit strikeouts in three of his last six starts. He'll face a tough lineup here, but Degrom has allowed only 11 hits in 63 at bats against this Dodgers lineup so far in his career.

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star TGIF Play of Day* The Baltimore Orioles have always been much better at home than on the road. They have had drastic splits in recent years. Kevin Gausman is a pitcher who has extreme splits in his career. Gausman has a 4.99 ERA in his career on the road. His ERA at home in his career is 3.52.

Gausman started the year pitching terribly, but he has always had tons of potential, and he's dealing of late. Gausman's swinging strike rate has jumped through the roof in recent outings. A great sign. He has allowed a grand total of one run in his last three starts combined. This Detroit lineup isn't nearly as strong as it was before with JD Martinez and Avila gone now.

Justin Verlander has pitched well of late, but Baltimore is rolling right now on offense. Also, the Orioles have a massive advantage in the bullpen here, especially with Britton back in the fold.

The Tigers are 0-7 in Verlander's last 7 road starts. The Tigers are 0-7 in Verlander's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 0-4 in Verlander's last 4 vs. Baltimore. The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 24-0 angle.

Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cardinals have won six of their last nine games. They are sneaking up on the Milwaukee Brewers in the standings. St. Louis has one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and they have some young stars who are crushing the ball right now. Tommy Pham, Paul Dejong, and Jose Martinez are all swinging the bat well of late. They still have the solid veterans in Molina and Gyorko also.

Michael Wacha is in good form right now. He's pitched a shutout in three of his last five outings. The Brewers have a lot of youngsters who are slumping of late. 

Matt Garza isn't a guy I trust at all. Garza was due for regression before his stint on the DL, and now he makes his first start back from the DL. That's always risky, and here he is up against a great lineup.

This is a fair price on the better team at this point, and with the better starting pitcher.

Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense has been very good consistently this year. They are up against a journeyman in Vance Worley. Worley had poor numbers in Triple A this year. He couldn't strike hardly anyone out. Why should I expect him to be better in the majors? I don't. 

A.J. Cole has lost velocity on his fastball from a couple years ago. He has some major control issues, and he'll put a lot of guys on base. This Marlins lineup has been very good in recent weeks, and Ozuna is red hot in the middle of the lineup.

Both bullpens are exhausted after they were used up yesterday. I don't think the starters give them quality starts here. This one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is my favorite under umpire in the majors. Miller's strike percentage has been over 65% in four consecutive seasons, which no other umpire has matched. This is a guy that helps the pitchers a bunch.

Robert Stephenson has a high upside, but throwing strikes is a major issue for him. Having a guy like Miller behind the dish should be a huge help for him. The Pirates aren't a patient team either.

Trevor Williams started the season pitching poorly, but his fastball has good movement and he has been pretty solid of late.

Billy Hamilton is questionable with an injury and Zack Cozart is out with an injury. Those are two key pieces in this Reds lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Padres* The San Diego Padres have been really scrappy this year. I'll admit I thought this team would be far worse than they are. It seems their manager has done a great job with team chemistry here, and while other teams are quitting on the season they are playing hard. 

Ervin Santana is still due for regression. His SIERA is more than a full run worse than his ERA. He has stranded a ton of guys on base.

Luis Perdomo is a sinker baller, and this Twins lineup has been really bad of late. Minnesota traded away Kintzler, and this bullpen was bad before he left. The Padres have a huge bullpen edge in this one.

Take San Diego.