*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors at .371. Blackmon has been the hottest hitter in baseball. This Rockies lineup has tremendous numbers against Robbie Ray as well. The Rockies have a .442 wOBA in a pretty large sample size against Ray. They have actually hit him even better at Chase Field than Coors Field. 

Jeff Hoffman was really bad in Triple A earlier this year. He has pitched a bit better of late, but I still don't trust him at all. Hoffman is up against an underrated offense. The emergence of Ketel Marte as a star has really helped the Diamondbacks this season. Hoffman had an ERA of 7.57 in 7 appearances in Triple A earlier this year. He isn't the answer.

John Tumpane is behind home plate and he is one of the better over umpires in baseball.

Trevor Story is likely to miss this game, but that is more than factored in here with a total of only 9.

The over is 30-13-1 in Ray's last 44 home starts.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* This is too good of a price for me to pass up the White Sox with Giolito on the mound. 

Lucas Giolito has allowed a grand total of six runs in his last eight starts. Giolito has been mowing down hitters. He has thrown a lot more of his offspeed pitches this year, and that has led to a lot more success. Hitters were blasting his fastball in past seasons. Giolito has a 2.22 ERA, and his FIP is 2.71.

Jon Lester started the season very well, but he has struggled a lot in recent weeks. Lester is allowing a lot more hard contact this year. Lester faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 13th in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching. 

The White Sox have been competitive this year, and they clearly have the better starting pitcher going here. 

I'll grab the big price.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have the hottest offense in baseball. In the last 14 days, Atlanta has a wOBA of nearly .400. The Braves have a really deep lineup, and they should make Steven Matz work really hard. Atlanta rates 8th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. 

Max Fried started the season out pitching much better than expected, but he has come down to earth in a big way of late. Fried has allowed 17 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Fried has allowed more hard contact and has been working from behind in the count. The Mets rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

The heat should help the ball fly well in Atlanta. The Braves bullpen has been used heavily of late, and the Mets bullpen isn't good at all.

The over is 21-5-1 in the Braves last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Michael Pineda isn't a guy I trust against a really good Boston Red Sox lineup. Boston can struggle against lefties, but they are elite against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are clearly a top 5 offense in the majors against right handed pitching.

Michael Pineda still struggles with giving up the long ball far too often. He is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings pitched. The Red Sox have plenty of power, and they can spoil good pitches and make a pitcher work. Pineda is allowing more than 43% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs. 

The Twins have beaten up on a weak schedule this year. They are now exactly .500 on the season against teams with a record above .500. Minnesota is a good team, but I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate.

David Price is coming off a really bad start, but he has been very good overall this year. Price had three gems in a row before this last poor start. 

The Red Sox are 67-30 in their last 97 road games against a right handed starter. They are 21-7 in Price's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* I don't like to make a habit of betting against Jacob Degrom, but I have to take the Atlanta Braves at plus money here.

The Braves are as hot as anyone in baseball. I underrated this team prior to the season. I knew the offense could be good, but they are far better than I expected. How good have they been of late? Atlanta has a ridiculous .392 weighted on base average (wOBA). Second best in the majors during that time sits at .364 wOBA. 

Atlanta's red hot run also comes as their bullpen has pitched much better of late. They have been a top ten bullpen in the last month, and the Mets have been a bottom ten bullpen.

Jacob Degrom has been very good this year, but he hasn't been on the level he was last year. Degrom has a 3.12 FIP this year compared to 1.99 a year ago.

Julio Teheran has been pitching great of late. Teheran has eight straight starts where he has allowed 1 earned run or less. 

The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter. The Mets are 0-5 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. A combined 22-1 angle. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Cincinnati Reds have talent, but they are a banged up team and they are finding ways to lose games right now. Scooter Gennett has been out all year, and they really miss him. Nick Senzel may miss this game after taking a foul ball to the eye last night and getting stitches. Joey Votto and Yasiel Puig haven't produced the way they were expected to this season so far.

The Texas Rangers come into this game feeling awfully good about themselves. The Rangers are 11-5 in their last 16 games. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games. Ariel Jurado has been better than expected this year, and the bullpen has been much improved in the past few weeks.

Sonny Gray is a solid pitcher, but the Reds have plenty of flaws and this is a huge price for them to be laying. 

Taking average AL teams and backing them in interleague play has been a great angle in the last decade. The Rangers fit that angle here. The Reds are 29-63 in their last 92 interleague games. The Reds are 5-21 in their last 26 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.

Take Texas. 

*4 Star Play Over* The wind is blowing out at about 10 or 11 mph in Washington. This is a park where the wind blowing out makes a big difference. We saw how big of a difference that can make on Saturday when the ball was flying extremely well.

Archie Bradley isn't a guy I trust, and he now starts. Godley will throw behind him, and he has been in bad form. The Nats offense has heated up a lot of late.

Anibal Sanchez has been solid lately, but he has faced some weaker offenses. I don't think he is nearly as good as he has looked recently. 

Favorable conditions and two offenses swinging the bat well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong "opener" going here in Stanek. He fits this role very well. Jalen Beeks has been throwing it really well also and he is the pitcher who will come in after Stanek.

Griffin Canning looks like a good big league pitcher. He has a nice arsenal of pitches at his disposal and he can limit hard contact.

In 10 of the Tampa Bay Rays last 12 games, the total has finished at 8 or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Washington Nationals have Stephen Strasburg on the mound on Saturday. Strasburg has been excellent all year. He has a good 3.36 ERA, but his FIP of 2.77 suggests he is even better than that. Strasburg appears to have some positive regression coming. According to Baseball Savant, Strasburg is allowing the smallest percentage of hard hit batted balls this year that has has in the past five seasons. He is at a career high in swinging strikes as well.

The Diamondbacks offense has been great against left handed pitching and only mediocre against right handed pitching.

Taylor Clarke isn't a good pitcher. He had a 4.03 ERA in Triple A last year, and in Triple A this year he had 7.22 ERA. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and he gives up a lot of hard contact on fly balls.

The weather here calls for warm weather and winds blowing out 10-15 mph. Strasburg has been good at suppressing home runs, and the Nationals have been playing better of late.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 26-7 at home this year. The Dodgers have what I believe is the best roster in the National League. It is going to be rare to see them at a price like this. 

The Chicago Cubs have played well this year, but I don't see them as on the same level as the Dodgers. The Cubs are only 14-19 on the road this year. Chicago has some stars in the lineup, but they aren't as deep as the Dodgers are offensively.

Rich Hill has been tremendous of late. Hill has allowed an average exit velocity of only 83.5 mph this year, which is in the top 2% of all pitchers in the big leagues. Hill has allowed 2 runs or less in five straight starts. 

Kyle Hendricks is a solid pitcher, but the Dodgers have the best on base percentage against right handed pitching of any team in the majors (.350). 

The Dodgers are a whopping 41-13 in their last 54 home games. They are 22-5 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros start Justin Verlander in this one. Verlander has been tremendous yet again this year. Verlander has 14 starts, and he has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of those 14 starts. Verlander has a 2.40 ERA on the season. His swinging strike rate is at the highest of his illustrious career. 

Brandon Woodruff is a good pitcher with a lot of potential, but he has had several blowups this season as well. He is clearly less consistent than is Verlander. 

The Brewers have a solid bullpen, but this is a bullpen with injury concerns and some depth issues. Houston has arguably the best bullpen in baseball, so the clear advantage here goes to Houston.

This price has dropped significantly, and I can't pass up taking such a great team with Verlander on the mound at this number.

Houston is 43-18 in Verlander's last 61 starts. They are 68-28 in their last 96 home games against a right handed starter. The Brewers are 1-8 in their last 9 interleague road games.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brad Peacock is an underrated pitcher. Peacock has started 11 games for the Astros this year. He has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of those 11 starts so far this year. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of those starts. Peacock has been throwing the ball really well of late. He has a FIP of less than 1.00 in four of his last six starts. This is a guy who can miss bats, and I really like his form of late.

Freddy Peralta is far more inconsistent than Peacock. Peralta is capable of throwing an absolute gem. He's also capable of getting hit around. I'll take my chances here largely because of the Astros injury issues. Without Correa, Springer, and Altuve this Astros offense isn't even close to as good. Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 contests.

These are two excellent bullpens. When I see a total of 9 or higher with two very good bullpens I'm typically looking toward the under.

The under is 17-7 in the Astros last 24 games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rays -1.5* The Tampa Bay Rays have been excellent against right handed pitching this year. They rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Athletics are only 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching.

We have a pitching mismatch here. Tanner Anderson starts for Oakland. Anderson has never started a game in the majors. In fact, he hasn't even started a game in the minors since 2017. Anderson has been terrible at Triple A this year. He has a 6.26 ERA and a whopping 7.27 FIP. Anderson doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and the Rays should be able to get to him.

Charlie Morton has a 2.30 ERA and a 2.69 FIP so far this year. Morton is striking out 11.02 batters per nine innings. His average exit velocity allowed is only 86.1 mph too, so he isn't giving up much hard contact.

The A's played a doubleheader on Saturday. Oakland also had major travel troubles last night. The A's weren't able to get to Tampa until very late. This is a very tough spot for the A's.

The Rays have covered the run line in 36 of their 40 wins this year. 

Take Tampa Bay -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Robbie Ray against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. Ray is an interesting pitcher who can really miss bats, but can also get hit hard on some occasions. Overall, he's a good pitcher, and he is up against a Blue Jays lineup that isn't any good. The Blue Jays are a bottom five offense in baseball. Toronto doesn't pick up many walks and they swing at a lot of balls outside the strike zone. That plays into Ray's strengths. 

Clayton Richard has only started three games, but he hasn't been impressive. He has the same amount of walks that he has strikeouts. He is nearly 36 years old and is clearly near the end of his career. Richard has a 3.55 ERA, but a 6.15 FIP and a 6.03 SIERA this year. He has been very fortunate.

The Diamondbacks offense ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Arizona should be able to create quite a few scoring chances here.

The Blue Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball, and I'll fade them in this spot.

Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* In the last 30 days, the Chicago White Sox rank 28th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Kansas City Royals rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA during that time. Neither of these teams are any good offensively.

Lucas Giolito has been lights out of late. Giolito had been a very highly touted pitcher, but he had some pitches that were getting blasted. Giolito has simplified things and is using an improved changeup to get a lot more swings and misses. Giolito had a 8.3% swinging strike rate last year. His swinging strike rate is a whopping 13.3% so far this year.

Brad Keller is a mediocre pitcher, but he is facing a very weak lineup here. Keller has had a lot of success against them in the past. The White Sox have only a .267 wOBA against Keller in 126 AB's. 

Giolito has dominated the Royals too. Kansas City has only a .238 wOBA against Giolito in 92 AB's. 

The wind will be blowing in about 8 mph here which helps too.

The under is 6-0 in Giolito's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in Keller's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Keller's last 4 starts vs. the White Sox. A combined 24-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees meet the Cleveland Indians tonight in Cleveland. The weather can play a pretty big role in how things go at Progressive Field. With the breeze coming in from right field tonight at about 12 mph throughout this game, it is a big help to the pitching staffs.

German is a solid starter for the Yankees. He has a 3.66 ERA and a 3.82 SIERA. German has an impressive 14.3% swinging strike rate. The Indians swing and miss a lot, and I think he matches up pretty well here.

Plesac starts for the Indians, and he has been great in his first two starts. He can't keep pitching as well as he did in those two games, but he has excellent control and the conditions are favorable tonight.

These two bullpens are excellent. The Indians are a top five bullpen in baseball, and the Yankees are a top three bullpen in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* David Hess is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. Hess has a 7.36 ERA so far this year, and his FIP is is 7.10 so this hasn't just been about bad luck. Hess allows all kinds of very hard contact. His average exit velocity allowed is 91.6 mph. Batters have barreled up Hess on 15.3% of batted balls. In this kind of a sample size, I believe this is the worst I've ever seen from a big league starter. Hess isn't fooling anyone.

Ariel Jurado starts here for the Rangers. Jurado has a solid 2.80 ERA, but his FIP is 3.80 and his SIERA is all the way down at 4.23. Jurado is allowing a BABIP of only .272. That won't continue. He will also give up more home runs than he has thus far. 

Both of these bullpens are really bad, and they are both likely to be in the game for quite a while with this matchup of starting pitchers.

The wind is blowing out at about 8 mph and the game time temperature will be about 90 degrees. That is definitely a plus for the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians offense started the season out in terrible fashion, but they have been respectable of late. Cleveland is 26th in wOBA for the year, but they are 17th in the last 30 days. The Twins are first in the majors in wOBA for the year and 1st in the last 30 days as well.
Martin Perez isn't a guy I trust. Perez walks too many guys, and his SIERA of 4.64 this year suggests he has been very fortunate. 

The Indians are going with a bullpen game as far as the pitching lineup. This Twins offense is tremendous and I don't think the Indians have enough bullpen depth to keep them quiet. 

The wind is also forecast to be blowing out at about 8 mph here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Reds ML* The Cincinnati Reds start Luis Castillo here. Castillo had one really bad start in Milwaukee, but overall he has been brilliant this year. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in all of baseball. Castillo has a really impressive 14.6% swinging strike rate on the season. He is the rare combination of a guy who gets a very high swinging strike rate and can also induce soft contact. His average exit velocity allowed is only 85.0 mph, which ranks in the top six percent in the majors.

Genesis Cabrera didn't impress at all in Triple A this year, but he was called up to the big leagues because the Cardinals were banged up in the rotation. Cabrera had a 6.35 ERA and a 6.86 FIP in nine games in Triple A this year. He was hit hard in his first big league start against the Phillies as well.

The Reds season long offensive numbers are bad, but they rank 13th in wOBA in the last 30 days. With Joey Votto hitting the ball much better and Nick Senzel now leading things off, the Reds offense is better than most believe.

The Reds bullpen ranks in the top 5 in baseball in all major categories. With a big starting pitching advantage and a bullpen advantage, I'll take the road team here.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have been better than expected this year. The emergence of Lucas Giolito as a very good starting pitcher has really helped this team. Giolito has always been a very highly touted pitcher. Now, he has backed off on the use of his curveball and it has really helped him a lot. Giolito has a 2.86 ERA and a 2.87 FIP on the season. 

The Indians have a bottom ten offense in the majors. Cleveland is very inconsistent. The Indians aren't getting the production they need from Jose Ramirez, and this lineup lacks depth.

Plesac starts for the Indians here. He is a young pitcher who doesn't walk many people, and he wasn't intimidated by starting against a great Red Sox offense in Fenway in his first start. That was impressive. 

The White Sox offense has scored 4 runs or less in 14 games since May 14. This is one of the 3 or 4 weakest offenses in the majors.

Giolito has allowed a total of 8 runs in his last 7 starts and both offenses have struggled. Sunday has been the best day for unders in MLB by a wide margin.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He isn't as good as his ERA so far this season would indicate. There is some regression coming, but he is still going to be very good. In fact, his swinging strike rate is at 15.3% which is elite. Verlander is still fooling a lot of hitters.

Brett Anderson is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has thrown the ball well of late. Anderson is streaky and he has a chance here against an Astros lineup that is badly banged up. The Astros rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average, but they are only 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. They are without Altuve, Springer, and Correa. 

The A's bullpen is a top 10 bullpen in the majors. The Astros bullpen is probably the best bullpen in all of baseball. 

Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Astros are likely to play in quite a few low scoring games without their offensive stars.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics rank 15th in weighted on base average. They are without Khris Davis which definitely hurts their offense.

The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the majors in wOBA, but their offense is severely shorthanded right now. The Astros are without Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa. That is 3 of their top 4 hitters who are out right now. 

Mike Fiers isn't a great pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home. This is clearly a pitchers park, and he has been able to use that to his advantage. Fiers had a 2.81 ERA last year at home and he has a 2.67 ERA at home so far this season.

Brad Peacock is a guy who has good strikeout stuff. Peacock has multiple plus pitches, and I think he has a lot of upside.

The Astros rank 1st in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Athletics rank 7th. These are two quality bullpens.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dakota Hudson has potential. He has been inconsistent, but as he has thrown his slider more often in recent outings his performance has improved quite a bit. After having a FIP of higher than 10 in three of his first four starts of the season, Hudson has improved drastically of late. Hudson has a FIP of 3.95 or lower in five of his last six starts. 

Jerad Eickhoff has been solid this year. He isn't spectacular, but he can generally hold his own. Eickhoff is much better when pitching from ahead in the count.

Kerwin Danley is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He has called a whopping 65.99% of pitches a strike so far this year. Danley has been an under machine for the last few seasons. He should help both pitchers in this one.

This is a get away day game and that can usually mean a key hitter or two is out of the lineup. 

The under is a whopping 48-22 in the Cardinals last 70 in game 3 of a series. Those are often get away days and the Cardinals sit out regulars pretty often in these spots.

This number has gotten too high for me to pass up.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* This isn't so much a play on the Rangers as it is a fade of the Seattle Mariners as a -133 favorite with Wade LeBlanc on the mound. 

The Seattle Mariners are 6-22 in their last 28 games. This is not a good team. Texas isn't a really good team either, but they are playing pretty well right now. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games.

Wade LeBlanc is near the end of his career, and he has been injured of late. Since his injury, he has looked terrible in two starts. LeBlanc is getting absolutely crashed. So far this year, a ridiculously high 14.1% of batted balls against him have been barreled. The average exit velocity he has allowed is 92.1 mph. That is among the bottom two percent of all pitchers in baseball. LeBlanc isn't fooling anyone.

Leclerc gets the start as the opener and then Smyly should be the primary pitcher for the Rangers here. Smyly has struggled so far this year, but he does have much higher upside potential than LeBlanc. 

A price grab here going against a team that is struggling in a big way.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Their wOBA sits at a terrible .256 during that time. The White Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games. 

Kansas City ranks 24th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Royals offense isn't as good as they looked earlier this year. 

Lucas Giolito has been absolutely dealing for the White Sox this year. Giolito has a 2.77 ERA, and it isn't a fluke. He has a 2.81 FIP. His strikeout rate was 6.49 batters per nine innings last year, but he is striking out 10.21 batters per nine innings this year. Giolito is throwing harder than ever, and his slider and change up have been excellent. The Royals lineup has 9 hits in 73 at bats against Giolito.

Brad Keller isn't tremendous by any means, but he is a steady guy who the White Sox hitters have only a .186 average against. He can have trouble finding the strike zone, but the White Sox haven't been good at all at drawing walks.

The under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games between these teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Colorado Rockies may well be without Charlie Blackmon again here. Manager Bud Black said on Sunday that there is a chance Blackmon might have to go on the 10 day injured list, which makes him seem at least somewhat doubtful for this game. 

Zack Greinke has been dealing of late. Greinke has a 2.89 ERA on the year and his FIP is only 3.24. Greinke has allowed a grand total of 8 runs in his last seven starts. Greinke has had a FIP of 1.79 or lower in 5 of those last 7 starts. His highest FIP in any game in that seven game stretch is 3.96. He has been dialed in. While many other pitchers have horrible numbers at Coors Field, Greinke is 5-1 with a 4.21 ERA at Coors Field in his career.

Jon Gray is less consistent than Greinke. Gray is certainly capable of throwing the ball very well, but he hasn't been in great form of late. Gray has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last five starts. He has allowed much harder contact this year than Greinke as well. Gray's average exit velocity is a whopping 91.1 mph. Greinke's is only 86.3 mph. 

The DBacks are 31-12 in Greinke's last 43 starts vs. a team with a losing record. 

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* Mike Soroka has a sparkling 1.01 ERA on the year. His strand rate is 87.2% so there's no way he'll keep it going at this rate, but Soroka has some very impressive advanced metrics. According to Baseball Savant, he has allowed a hard hit batted ball only 32.2% of the time this year. He has great control and this Cardinals offense has definitely slumped of late. Soroka has started 7 games this year, and he has allowed 1 run or less in six of those seven starts. He has been really consistent

Dakota Hudson has been very inconsistent this year. Hudson has terrible control. He is walking 4.21 batters per nine innings, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact. The Braves lineup is very deep and they have been swinging it very well of late.

The Braves have a big starting pitching edge here, and they are the team playing much better baseball right now. 

I think this price is too short.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Edwin Jackson in this one. Jackson has played on just about every team in the majors at this point, and he is near the end of his big league career. Jackson isn't a good starter anymore. There is nothing in his statistics in the minors or the bigs so far this year to suggest he will have any success. He has very little control and doesn't miss enough bats.

Cal Quantrill does have a high ceiling, and he goes against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that isn't very good. Quantrill is backed by a top five bullpen, while the Blue Jays bullpen is mediocre. 

The Blue Jays have had fortunate batted ball luck in at bats with runners in scoring position so far this year. The Padres are a much better team this year, and the oddsmakers have been underpricing them of late.

I'll fade Jackson at this short price. Toronto is 1-6 in their last 7 home games. 

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Blake Snell was excellent last year, but he was helped by some clear luck. So far this year, Snell has been even better than a year ago, but has had worse luck. Snell is a clear ace who possesses the rare ability to make batters miss at a really high level and induce very soft contact.

Snell is carrying an amazing 19.2% swinging strike rate so far this year. Only 26.9% of batted balls against him have been categorized as hard hit by Fangraphs. He is striking out more than 13 batters per nine innings and his walk rate is down to 2.2 walks per nine innings.

Shane Bieber is a good pitcher, but he is a couple notches below Snell. Bieber is a high strikeout guy, but he gives up a lot of very hard contact. Bieber has allowed 42.4% of batted balls to be hard hit. Batters have barreled 11.9% of hits against Bieber, which is a very high rate compared to the major league average of around 8 or 8.5%. 

The Rays bullpen is well rested, and they are deeper in the bullpen than the Indians. The Indians have had trouble hitting lefties the past few years. The Rays are much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* This isn't a bet I'm excited to make, but I have to do it. The Detroit Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 home games. Detroit has lost 8 straight games overall. They haven't even been close either. The Tigers have been outscored by a combined score of 63-19 in those last eight games. How can this team be a huge favorite over anyone?

Matthew Boyd is a decent pitcher, but his trend is downward of late. In his first seven starts, only one had a FIP of 3.4 or higher. In his last three starts, he has a FIP of 3.75, 10.08, and 4.66. He's giving up more hard contact and he is giving up the long ball too often.

The Marlins bullpen isn't very good, but it is better than the Tigers bullpen. The Tigers have a bottom three or four bullpen in baseball.

The Marlins have played much better of late, and Trevor Richards is capable of throwing a good game. Detroit has a team batting average of .176 in the last 14 days.

A price grab here on a big underdog. Detroit can't lay this number. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Dodgers pitching staff has been amazing of late. The Dodgers pitching staff has a ridiculous 1.74 ERA over the last two weeks. Rich Hill threw the best he has all year in his last outing at Cincinnati. He threw a little harder than he had been, and he located his pitches very well.

The Rays offenses has come back to earth of late. They do have quite a few injuries, so that is part of the problem. Tampa Bay has scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last ten games. 

Tampa Bay starts opener Ryan Stanek here and Chirinos is likely to follow him. Stanek has been great in the opener role. Chirinos has quality stuff and has thrown his best of late.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he has the second highest called strike percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years according to my umpire database. He's clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds offense ranks 26th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 27th against right handed pitching. With Joey Votto struggling right now, the Reds really need a lot of production from Yasiel Puig (injured and questionable/doubtful to start here) or someone like Scooter Gennett who is on the disabled list with an injury. The Reds won 3-0 last night, but they had only 4 hits in that game.

The Brewers offense is a good one, but they are up against a very good young pitcher in Luis Castillo. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA and a 2.62 FIP this year. Castillo won't keep a 1.90 ERA and he is due some regression, but only 28% of batted balls off Castillo have been hard hit this year. That's one of the lowest percentages of any starter in the majors, and he should continue to be a very good pitcher.

Zach Davies also limits hard contact, and he's up against a struggling Reds offense.

These are two strong bullpens and neither of them have been used all that much in recent days. Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate and he is a strike caller who should help the pitchers here.

The under is 7-0 in Castillo's last 7 road starts. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. an NL Central foe. The under is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 vs. an NL Central opponent. The under is 4-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 38-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres send Chris Paddack to the mound here. Paddack has been amazing so far this year. Paddack enters with a 1.99 ERA and a 2.95 FIP. He has fantastic control and has an impressive 11.7% swinging strike rate. 

Luke Weaver starts for the Diamondbacks. Weaver hasn't gotten a ton of publicity this year, but he has been excellent. Weaver has a 3.16 ERA and a 3.11 FIP. Weaver has an 11.1% swinging strike rate. Weaver was an extremely highly touted prospect for the Cardinals. It never worked out in St. Louis for him, but he seems to be putting it all together in Arizona. 

The Padres have a top 5 bullpen in the majors. The Diamondbacks bullpen is a league average bullpen.

We know San Diego plays in a park that is very friendly to pitchers. 

Arizona's offense is elite against lefties (3rd in wOBA in the majors), but they are mediocre against righties (15th in wOBA). San Diego is 15th in wOBA against lefties and 25th in wOBA against righties.

This one sits above the key MLB totals number of 7. I'll take the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have lost the first two games in this series. Atlanta has been a streaky team this year. The Braves have a very good lineup. Atlanta also has a clear weakness in the bullpen.

Milwaukee starts Brandon Woodruff here. Woodruff has a 3.72 ERA and a 2.99 FIP on the season thus far. Woodruff has an impressive 10.9% swinging strike rate, and he has been pitching his best in his last few outings.

Mike Foltynewicz starts for the Braves, and he has been terrible so far this season. He didn't have a Spring Training because of an injury. He threw four games in Triple A and was hit around. He has started four games in the majors and brings an 8.02 ERA and 7.94 FIP into this one. Foltynewicz is giving up a lot of hard contact, and this is a good Brewers lineup he must try to navigate through here. Until he can show something positive, I see him as a fade candidate. His velocity is more than 2 mph slower than last year right now. He's either hurt or something mechanically is off. 

The Brewers have the better bullpen and they are looking to salvage a game in this series.

The Braves are only 3-13 in Foltynewicz's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Milwaukee.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays send Blake Snell to the mound on Saturday afternoon. Snell has been amazing so far this year. Snell has made 8 starts this year. In 4 of the 8 starts he has had a single game FIP of 0.61 or lower. That is absolute domination. Snell has a ridiculous swinging strike rate of 19.2%. His advanced statistics are actually quite a bit better than last season.

Masahiro Tanaka is a good pitcher, but he isn't in Snell's class. Tanaka's advanced numbers actually are the worst this year of his career thus far. Tanaka has had a swinging strike rate of 15.1% and 14.1% the last two years. So far this year it is only 9.7%. He is allowing more hard contact this year, and his SIERA sits at 4.14. 

The Yankees lineup is very shorthanded right now. They have still been good against right handed pitching, but they rank 23rd in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

The Rays rank 7th in the majors in WOBA against right handed pitching. 

I don't like to make too much of this small of a sample size, but Tanaka has pitched 3 times with Kerwin Danley as the home plate umpire. All 3 have been in the last two years. Tanaka has allowed 18 runs in just 14 and 2/3 innings pitched. His WHIP is 1.909 in those games.

The Rays bounce back from a disappointing loss last night.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Seattle ranks 9th in this same statistic. 

Minnesota's lineup is very deep, and I would expect them to get quite a few scoring chances here. Marco Gonzales' fastball velocity is down about 2 mph from last year. Gonzales has been struggling in recent starts, and I'm wondering if he has some kind of injury. I see him as vulnerable here.

Martin Perez has a minor foot injury, but will start here. Perez may be improved, but I don't think he is as good as his numbers so far this year would indicate.

The Mariners rate 5th worst in the majors in bullpen SIERA. This team was strong in the bullpen last year, but they don't have enough depth this season. The Twins are a mediocre bullpen at best as well.

The over is 7-1-1 in the Twins last 9 road games vs. a left handed starter. The over is 14-3 in the Mariners last 17 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals have both struggled against left handed pitching at times, but both have been excellent against right handed pitching. Both starters here are subpar right handed pitchers.

Texas has definite potential to put up a big number. The Rangers have scored 10 runs or more by themselves already seven times this year. That's pretty impressive for only the middle of May. 

The Royals offense has been far better than expected so far this year. Kansas City has scored 8 runs or more nine times this year. Texas is allowing a whopping 5.82 runs per game on the season thus far.

Texas has the single worst bullpen SIERA of any team in the majors. Kansas City is 12th worst.

Lance Lynn is an inconsistent starter who doesn't keep the ball on the ground very well. Homer Bailey has been better this year than last, but more than 50% of batted balls hit against him this year have been hard hit according to Fangraphs. 

The weather here is an important part of the handicap too. A temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out at 15-17 mph sustained with gusts to 25-30 mph is a big plus.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Royals -1.5* The Kansas City Royals aren't a team I'll be backing often, but I'm looking to fade Shelby Miller. He has made seven starts on the season and Miller has 21 walks and only 19 strikeouts. Miller has a ridiculously high 1.88 WHIP on the season. He has a 7.48 ERA. Miller's hard hit contact allowed is an extremely high 46.3% according to Fangraphs. He isn't fooling anyone.

The Texas Rangers have done a lot of damage on offense against right handed pitching, but they struggle against lefties. While Texas is 6th in weighted on base average against righties, they are down at number 20 against lefties. 

Danny Duffy has pitched well so far this year. Duffy has good enough stuff, and seems to be healthy this season.

The Royals bullpen has been a bit better than I expected. The Rangers arguably have the worst bullpen in baseball. Texas ranks 29th out of 30 in bullpen FIP. The Royals are 23rd. Miller isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Rangers bullpen is very weak in long relief.

Take Kansas City -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The price on the Twins has come down enough that I have to take them here. 

Jose Berrios is a very good young pitcher, but he has struggled on the road. Fortunately, the Twins are at home here. Berrios has superb numbers at home the last few seasons. Berrios has a sparkling 0.93 WHIP at home in the past three seasons combined. Berrios has 44 walks at home in 201 innings. He has struck out 217 batters in those innings.

Berrios' numbers are a bit better than last season. He is only 24 years old, and he has electric stuff. Berrios is great at inducing soft contact, and he has great control.

The Twins may be without Nelson Cruz here, but they have an extremely deep lineup and have very good options to fill in for him.

Tyler Skaggs swinging strike rate has gone down this year, and he is allowing more hard contact. Skaggs has a .375 wOBA allowed against this Twins lineup in a small sample size. 

The Angels and Twins bullpens I rate equally, but the Twins definitely have the better lineup and I have to back Berrios at home here.

The Twins are a whopping 24-5 in Berrios' last 29 home starts.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres here, and I'll be backing the road underdog.

San Diego starts Nick Margevicius here. He has been better than expected, but this is unquestionably a very tough test at Coors Field. Margevicius has allowed only a 32.1% hard hit rate this year, and his changeup induces some weak groundouts. 

Colorado starts Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has struggled badly at Coors Field, and he has been particularly bad in day games. Senzatela has a 1.427 WHIP at Coors Field. He has a 1.428 WHIP in day starts. He has good numbers against the Padres, but much of that has been great starts at pitcher friendly Petco Park. 

The Padres rank ninth in wOBA in the majors in the past 14 days. This is an improved offense. The Padres also have a top five bullpen. This is a deep bullpen and that is a big advantage in this game of questionable starters. 

The Rockies bullpen is a bottom six or eight bullpen in the majors. 

The Rockies are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been elite against left handed pitching this year, but they haven't been very good against right handers. The Braves are also better against lefties than right handers. 

Arizona ranks 17th in the majors against right handed pitching in weighted on base average. The Braves ranks 13th.

Both of these offenses have been struggling of late. In the last 14 days, the DBacks rank 18th in the majors in wOBA and the Braves rank 21st. 

Kevin Gausman has quality stuff and his hard contact rate is way down so far this year. Merrill Kelly is inconsistent, but he has typically been pretty good against batters who haven't seen him before. There is some blow up potential with him, but this is a high total so I'll take that chance.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is definitely one of the top two or three under umpires in baseball. The under is 251-204 (55.2% unders) in Miller's games behind home plate in his career. He should help both pitchers here. 

The under is 13-5 in the DBacks last 18 games against a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. 

Chase Field doesn't play the same as it did a few years ago. The humidor installed at Chase Field has slowed down the scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Play of Day* Zack Greinke has been absolutely dealing of late. Greinke has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last 4 starts. Greinke has had a FIP of less than 2 in his last three starts. He has been allowing weaker contact as the season moves along. 

Greinke has a brilliant WHIP of 0.95 in his last three years pitching at Chase Field. He has gone at least six innings in his last seven starts. This Braves lineup has a .268 OBP against Greinke.

Julio Teheran has pitched better of late. Teheran has improved his control and he has been working ahead in the count more often.

Both of these offenses are quite a bit better against left handed pitching. They are both only mediocre against right handed pitching.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he has the highest called strike percentage of any umpire in the majors in the past five years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* Homer Bailey has been a bit better this year than last, but he still isn't a good starting pitcher. He's backed by one of the five worst bullpens in the majors also. 

Bailey is giving up all kinds of hard contact this year. I would expect Bailey to give up quite a few more home runs than the average starter this year, and this Phillies lineup has a lot of power. 

Jake Arrieta starts here for the Phillies. Arrieta doesn't have drastic home/road splits. He has been very solid on the road. He's backed by a Phillies bullpen that ranks 7th in the majors in FIP and 6th best in SIERA. 

This is a little bit bigger favorite than I usually take, but the odds here are implying a less than 59 percent chance of the Phillies winning this one. I think this line should be around -160, so I have to play this one.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fenway Park is highly influenced by wind. The forecast for Friday evening calls for a temperature in the low 60's and wind blowing out at 13 or 14 mph. 

Since 2005- games at Fenway with a temperature of 55 degrees or warmer and wind blowing out at 8 mph or more are 168-118 (58.7%) to the over. The weather is a clear help here.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a solid pitcher, but he has been worse at home in his career. Rodriguez has a 1.351 WHIP at home vs. a WHIP of 1.245 on the road. He's up against a Mariners offense that is second in the majors in OBP against lefties.

Erik Swanson has started four games this year. Two of them have been against the Cleveland Indians. The Indians offense has been ice cold. Swanson isn't as good as he looked in those games. He is still a youngster with questionable stuff. The Red Sox offense is averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games, and they have a history of hitting right handers hard.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is due for some regression. They have a whopping .376 batting average on balls in play with men in scoring position. Toronto has been very fortunate to put up as many runs as they have this year. Kyle Gibson is far from an elite pitcher, but he has improved from a few years ago. 

Trent Thornton has a high upside and he pitched great in his last start. The Twins offense is good, but they also have overachieved so far this year and that has contributed to this total being set at 9 flat.

The Blue Jays bullpen has pitched well this year. Toronto has improved depth in the pen this season.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. He is a strike caller. In his career, 56% of games Cuzzi has been the home plate umpire in have stayed under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers are 6th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) so far this year. They are 3rd in wOBA against right handed pitching. Texas has some young hitters who have been impressive so far this season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been woeful against lefties, but they are middle of the pack against right handed pitching. The Pirates have Starling Marte back from an injury and that's a big boost to this lineup.

Shelby Miller starts for the Rangers, and he has been terrible this year. Miller has managed to walk 20 batters while striking out only 13 so far this season. He has a 7.99 ERA, and his FIP is barely better at 7.03. Miller is having major problems, and there is no sign of improvement.

Nick Kingham has upside potential for the Pirates on the mound, but he is inconsistent and isn't likely to pitch too deep into the game. The Pirates bullpen is gassed right now. Vazquez has pitched on three straight days and he is the anchor of the bullpen. 

The Rangers bullpen has the worst SIERA in the majors. They are clearly a bottom three bullpen in baseball. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros have one of the most complete teams in the majors. Houston has a deep lineup with several guys who can hit for an average and several power hitters. They have a good starting rotation and an elite bullpen. So far this year, Houston has been the best bullpen in all of baseball.

Kansas City's offense is a major weakness. The Royals have a bottom five bullpen in the majors. The Royals are going to lose a lot of games this season.

Danny Duffy is an inconsistent lefty. The Astros hit lefties very well. Duffy can have control issues, and the Astros are good at drawing walks. 

Collin McHugh is better than he has looked so far this year. His ERA is 4.97, but his SIERA is only 3.97. He's allowing soft contact and still getting a lot of swinging strikes. 

The bullpen mismatch is key here. McHugh is a better pitcher than Duffy as well. 

The Royals are 12-44 in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Astros are 18-4 in McHugh's last 22 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals offense is a mess right now. Washington is without Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Matt Adams, Ryan Zimmerman, and Trea Turner. This offense has been decimated by injuries. 

Milwaukee's Lorenzo Cain is expected to miss Monday's game after a minor injury in Sunday's contest. 

Max Scherzer's advanced metrics show he has pitched into some very bad luck so far this year. Scherzer has a a lower FIP and xFIP this year than he had last year. His BABIP allowed is a whopping .377. That won't continue in the long run. Scherzer is still a dominant starting pitcher.

While Chacin isn't a guy I think is all that good, he has faced the Dodgers twice and the Cardinals twice already this year. Those are two of the best offenses in baseball. 

The Nationals have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on DBacks ML* Zack Greinke has really pitched well after a terrible outing in his first start of the year. Greinke has elite control and he mixes up his pitches very well. The DBacks offense has been surprisingly solid all year long. 

Greinke has a history of pitching well at Coors Field. Greinke has a solid 4.18 ERA at Coors Field. He has a 1.15 WHIP at Coors Field in his last four starts there. This Rockies lineup isn't as good as recent Rockies lineups.

German Marquez has pitched much better on the road than at home. He has fallen victim to some big innings allowed on his home field. The bullpen behind him has been used heavily of late, and Marquez will need to pitch deep into this game.

I feel like this is a 50/50 game, so I'll take the plus price.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The New York Mets wasted their bullpen last night in an 18 inning heartbreaking loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. That's never a good thing, but when Jason Vargas is your starting pitcher for the next game that is particularly bad. Vargas isn't good at all at this point in his career, and he is routinely pitching 4 or 5 innings. 

Milwaukee's Zach Davies has thrown the ball a bit better in recent starts. While the Mets offense is elite against lefties, they are only mediocre against right handed pitching. Josh Hader should be fresh and ready to go in the Brewers bullpen here.

The Brewers easily have the highest hard hit percentage of any team in the league against lefties. Even if Yelich misses this game with an injury, this is still a good lineup against lefties. 

A short price to fade Vargas and a bad bullpen.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The price here has gotten too cheap for me to pass up. Atlanta is a quality team with a tremendous lineup. The Marlins are last in the majors in weighted on base average. Miami is in for a very long season. 

Julio Teheran isn't the reason I'm making this play, but he usually does enough to keep his team in the game. He's backed by the far superior offense here.

Pablo Lopez has some decent stuff, but he rarely works deep into the game and this Braves lineup will make him work. 

The bullpen matchup is a wash here. At this short of a price, I'll fade the Marlins.

Miami is 2-10 in Lopez's last 12 starts. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Kyle Freeland has shown that he is a good fit for Coors Field. Freeland's advanced metrics look similar to a year ago. His xFIP and SIERA are almost exactly the same as last year. He hasn't been able to carry the same strand rate. I still see him as a solid left hander who can keep the ball down. The Rockies defense behind him is tremendous.

Luke Weaver has had a really nice season thus far. Weaver was a very highly touted prospect for a long time. He seems to be putting it together. He has upped his swinging strike rate to 10.4%. He is now walking only 2 batters per nine innings.

The under is 27-6 in Kyle Freeland's last 33 home starts. The under is 16-3 in his last 19 home starts against a team with a winning record. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros in an early game to finish off their series on Thursday afternoon. 

Jose Berrios starts for the home team. Many pitchers have numbers that are a decent amount better at home than on the road. Berrios has some of the most drastic home/road splits in the majors. Berrios has a sparkling 1.085 WHIP at home. His road WHIP is 1.422. His WHIP at home was 0.972 last year. It is 0.738 in three starts at home this year. Berrios has great stuff, and he is able to induce a lot of soft contact as well.

I think Brad Peacock is an underrated pitcher. He has several good pitches and is able to command them all. Peacock is coming off a great start against the Indians. He's backed by an elite bullpen. The Astros rank first in the majors in bullpen FIP so far this year.

This is a get away day game and that often means a key player or two are out of the lineup.

Doug Eddings is behind the plate here, and he has the single highest percentage of strikes called of all umpires in the majors in the past five years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Cubs have been hitting the ball very well of late. The Cubs have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Chicago has been very good against lefties in recent seasons and I would expect that to continue this season.

The Mariners rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Seattle's lineup has some very good right handed hitters who specialize in hitting lefties. 

Marco Gonzales is having a good season thus far, but he is due for regression. Gonzales has a 2.80 ERA and a 4.46 SIERA. His swinging strike rate is down to only 7.3% this season.

Jon Lester has given up a ton of hard contact this year. Opposing hitters exit velocity against Lester averages 92.4 mph. That is in the bottom 4% of the majors. Lester isn't going to keep getting away with that kind of hard contact rate in the long run.

The Cubs bullpen rates slightly worse than average so far this year. The Mariners have a bottom five bullpen in the majors.

The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The San Diego Padres start Chris Paddack here. Paddack is one of the highest rated pitching prospects in baseball. In the minors, Paddack was averaging less than one walk per nine innings pitched, so his control is elite. Paddack has allowed an average exit velocity of only 84.6 mph on batted balls so far this year too. Elite control and ability to induce soft contact are two really important tools for a young pitcher to have from the start.

Julio Teheran has been a subpar starter the last two seasons, and he is off to a slow start again this year. Teheran has a 4.57 SIERA and he is allowing an average exit velocity of 90.0 mph. 

The Braves offense is elite against lefties. They are good against right handed pitching too, but they have had some batted ball luck. The Padres offense is certainly weaker than the Braves, but the Padres are due for positive regression offensively.

The Padres bullpen ranks second in the majors in SIERA. The Braves bullpen ranks second worst in the majors in SIERA.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Matt Harvey vs. Homer Bailey in this contest on Sunday afternoon. Both of these starters have major blowup potential. Harvey has an ERA of 8.03 and his FIP is 5.90. Harvey is allowing a very high exit velocity of 91.0 mph so far on the year. His hard hit allowed percentage on batted balls is 45.2%. That is easily the highest of his career. He isn't fooling anyone. 

Homer Bailey has been terrible for the last few years. He actually pitched pretty well for a couple starts, but he was awful in his last outing. He couldn't find the strike zone at all. Bailey is a streaky pitcher, and he is very capable of being knocked out of the game in the first couple innings.

The Royals have a bottom five bullpen in the majors. The Angels bullpen is slightly worse than league average. 

I see plenty of scoring chances in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros meet in a battle of two of the top teams in baseball on Saturday afternoon. Shane Bieber is coming off a really rough outing, but he has quality stuff and I would expect a pretty good performance here. In his career, Bieber has drastic splits that you don't see very often. Bieber has a 6.12 ERA (1.483 WHIP) at home. On the road, Bieber has a 3.12 ERA (1.128 WHIP). 

Brad Peacock is an above average pitcher. The Astros have so much depth that he can get lost in the shuffle sometimes, but he has multiple plus pitches and I like his ability to induce soft contact. 

The Indians rank 9th in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Astros rank 2nd in bullpen FIP. The Indians have an above average bullpen. The Astros have what I believe is the best bullpen in the majors.

The wind is blowing out here, but a look at the data shows me the wind blowing out in Houston has 105 overs and 109 unders in the last 214 contests. 

O'Nora is a bit of an under umpire, and this number has been pushed up a full run.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This Cardinals lineup is really deep, and they can make things very difficult on an opposing pitching staff. 

Tyler Mahle has been good so far this year, but he has faced some easy competition. Other than one game against the Dodgers, who have a very good offense, he has faced subpar lineups. Mahle's ERA looks good, but his exit velocity allowed is a whopping 93.1 mph. He ranks in the bottom two percent in hard hit batted balls in the majors as well. 

Dakota Hudson has control issues, and he has allowed a lot of hard contact. Hudson has been able to work out of jams for the most part, but I see him as a regression candidate. The Cardinals pitching staff has had great luck when it comes to batted balls. On the other side, the Reds offense has the worst BABIP in the league and it isn't even close. The Reds are far better offensively than they have shown so far this year. 

The wind is blowing out at about 15 mph for this one, and with two pitchers allowing a lot of hard contact I see this number as too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* It would be hard to overstate how bad Shelby Miller has been this year. Miller has 13 walks and only 6 strikeouts this year. For any big league pitcher to have more walks than strikeouts is awful, and Miller has more than doubled up his strikeout number. The Mariners have a patient offense (7th in walk rate), and they should make him work here. Miller has a swinging strike rate of a ridiculously low 5.0%. The Mariners lineup is full of quality youngsters. Miller has a 7.63 ERA, but his FIP is 7.81 and xFIP is 8.11. He hasn't been unlucky. He's just been terrible.

Yusei Kikuchi will serve as the opener and pitch an inning or two here for Seattle. The Mariners are expected to turn it over to Justus Sheffield after that. Sheffield is a decent prospect, but he's been having major problems throwing strikes in the minors. Sheffield is averaging more than 7 walks per nine innings. He has a FIP of over 7 in the minors so far this year. He's likely to give this Rangers lineup several free passes.

The Rangers and Mariners both rank in the bottom ten in the majors in bullpen FIP. Both bullpens are likely to give the opposition several scoring chances.

The over is 6-1 in the Rangers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1-1 in Seattle's last 10 following a win.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The LA Dodgers have the most talent in the National League. The Dodgers offense is only decent against lefties, but they are tremendous against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers are tied for first in the majors with a .360 weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

Chris Archer gives up a lot of hard contact, and year after year his ERA has been worse than his FIP and SIERA. Archer is due for regression now, and he takes on a really good lineup here.

Pittsburgh's lineup is a mess right now with injuries to their top two hitters in Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. Pittsburgh already wasn't good against lefties, and now they are much weaker. Pittsburgh is easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties at .255. The Pirates will face a very good lefty in Ryu here.

Ryu has just two walks so far this year. He has struck out 23 batters. His HR rate allowed should come back down to normal, and I think this guy has top 25 or top 30 stuff in the majors.

Pittsburgh has scored 2 runs or less in four of their last five games. They haven't scored more than 4 runs in any of their last eight games.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers* The Chicago Cubs have taken the first two games from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are 3-3 on this road trip, and you know they would really like to have a winning road trip.

Jon Lester starts here for the Cubs. I'll be looking to fade Lester when I can, because I don't see him as a quality pitcher anymore. In his 3 starts so far this year, he has a 2.57 ERA and a 5.19 FIP. 100% of baserunners against Lester have been stranded on base so far this season. That obviously can't continue. He is sitting on average at 89.8 mph on his fastball. That's down from 91.0 last year. His hard hit batted balls percentage is at the highest percentage of his career. Lester is on a pitch count today, and the middle of the Cubs bullpen has been a big problem. They'll likely be in the game for a while here.

Ross Stripling is an underrated pitcher. Stripling has had excellent control through his career and he's pretty good at inducing soft contact as well. 

I give the Dodgers a big edge on the pitching mound here, and the Dodgers lineup is excellent. At this price I have to fade Lester and take the Dodgers.

Take the Dodgers.

*3 Star Play Over* John Means isn't a guy the Orioles can count on going deep into the game. In his two starts he has gone a combined 8 innings. The White Sox are a bit better offensively against left-handed pitching than righties. Means is a subpar lefty. 

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen is awful. Baltimore's bullpen ranks last in the majors by nearly half a run in FIP at 6.30. 

Ervin Santana starts here for the White Sox. Santana was decent a couple years ago for the Twins, but last year he came back from injury with a huge velocity drop. Santana was throwing his average fastball at 93.6 mph a couple years ago. Now, he consistently sits at 89 or 90 mph. That's a big difference. Santana is giving up a lot of hard contact, and he has a swinging strike rate below 5% (very low) last year and this year. 

The White Sox bullpen ranks 21st in the majors, so they aren't very good either.

The over is 12-1 in the Orioles last 13 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Colorado Rockies are laying too big of a number here. I've waited on this line and it kept getting higher and higher. It was time to pull the trigger. Washington doesn't have Bryce Harper in the lineup, but the Nationals offense even without Harper isn't any weaker than the Rockies lineup.

German Marquez is a good pitcher, but he has some drastic home/road splits. Coors Field hasn't been kind to him. 

Anibal Sanchez is far from a great pitcher, but he added some new pitches last year and was pretty good. He has pitched well in his two starts at Coors Field as well.

A big plus money price on the better overall team.

Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Brewers and Cardinals have two of the best offenses in the National League. Jhoulys Chacin and Adam Wainwright have been very shaky so far this year, and neither of these bullpens have been very good either.

Wainwright was a star pitcher at one point, but he is hanging on right now and simply isn't very good. Wainwright has a bad combination of poor control and he ranks bottom 6% in the majors in fastball velocity. So far this year, his hard hit rate is at the worst percentage in his career. 

Chacin is averaging 5.18 walks per nine innings this year. His control has been much worse this season. Chacin has a 5.66 ERA in his career against the Cardinals.

Mark Wegner is behind home plate and he is one of the best over umpires in the business because of his tight strike zone. That hurts both pitchers quite a bit here since both of these guys struggle with their control.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers have the most talented roster in the National League. We won't see them at this price very often this year. The Dodgers lineup is even more dangerous now that Cody Bellinger has taken the next step. There isn't a real break for an opposing pitcher all the way through this Dodgers lineup.

The Cubs started the season off very slowly before putting together a nice run of late. The Cubs have been beating far lesser teams than the Dodgers though. Chicago is still a good team, but I don't think they are in the same class as the Dodgers. 

Jose Quintana has been great in his last couple starts, but his peripherals indicate some question marks. Quintana's exit velocity allowed is the highest of his career so far this year. Quintana's hard hit percentage is 10% higher so far this year than any other year in his career. He hasn't faced a lineup as good as this one. 

Kenta Maeda is a quality pitcher. Maeda's strikeout rate is down, but his swinging strike rate is actually up a lot this year. His stuff is very good. Maeda is excellent at inducing soft contact.

I see Quintana/Maeda as a wash at worst for the Dodgers. There is no doubt the Dodgers have the better lineup and I give them the bullpen edge too.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians won game one of the doubleheader on Saturday against Atlanta. They then led 7-0 in game two before completely falling apart and losing 8-7. What a way to lose a game. 

Despite blowing the big lead on Saturday, Cleveland clearly has the better bullpen than Atlanta when you look at the advanced metrics on the season. Atlanta has a bottom six or eight bullpen in baseball. Cleveland's bullpen is slightly better than league average. 

Shane Bieber has an elite slider and the Braves do have some guys who swing at pitches outside of the strike zone quite a bit. 

Max Fried has pitched well this year, but I see him as due for regression. 

The Braves are 12-30 in their last 42 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 62-26 in their last 88 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

I like the Indians to bounce back here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Total Perfection* The LA Dodgers have a great offense, but their totals have gotten a bit inflated of late. The Dodgers also have a good pitching staff and an underrated bullpen. Dave Roberts has consistently sat out a key starter or two in Sunday day games in his time as manager of the Dodgers. I would expect a key player or two out of the lineup here.

Clayton Kershaw isn't the best pitcher in baseball anymore, but he is still very good. Kershaw unders at this high of a number are definitely intriguing to me. 

Brandon Woodruff's ERA isn't very good this year, but his FIP and xFIP suggest positive regression should be coming.

Josh Hader didn't pitch yesterday, and he should be available to pitch for more than an inning should the situation arise. That is clearly a plus for the under.

The under is 8-0 in the Dodgers last 8 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Brewers last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A combined 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Mariners offense has been really good so far this year. I think they are a quality offense, but they are due for some regression. Their batting average on balls in play with men in scoring position is .343 so far this year. That number can't continue all year. 

Trevor Cahill starts for the Angels, and he has held this Mariners lineup to a subpar .224 batting average in 86 plate appearances. 

Yusei Kikuchi is a quality lefty who the Angels will be seeing for the first time. The Angels are terrible against lefties. This team was in the bottom five against lefties last year, and they are dead last in wOBA against lefties so far this year. Justin Upton is usually good against lefties, but he is injured now. The Angels have Mike Trout, but the rest of the lineup isn't good. The Angels have a .241 wOBA against lefties on the season.

The under is 34-14-3 in the Angels last 51 games against a left handed starter. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cincinnati Reds have won the first two games in this series. Cincinnati has a big starting pitching edge here. Luis Castillo is a guy that many advanced metrics guys have loved because of his strikeout potential, and he has put it all together so far this year.

Castillo has a 1.46 ERA this year. His FIP is 2.33 on the season, so it definitely hasn't been smoke and mirrors. Castillo has an amazing 16.8% swinging strike rate so far this year. Even more impressive to me is the fact that he has allowed an average exit velocity of just 83.0 mph this year (top 5% in the majors). He hasn't allowed a barreled batted ball yet this year. Castillo is making them swing and miss often, and even when they hit it they aren't hitting it hard.

Eric Lauer starts for the Padres. Lauer has struggled early on this year. His hard hit rate allowed on batted balls this year is an awful 46.8%. His average exit velocity allowed is 2 mph faster than a year ago at 88.7 mph. Lauer isn't a strikeout pitcher, and he's giving up a lot of hard hit balls.

The Reds offense isn't all that good, but they are better than they have shown. The Reds have a .228 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That's 16 points lower than anyone else in the majors. That will regress to the mean over time.

We have the much better starting pitcher here and because the Reds started so poorly this year, the price comes cheap.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers have absolutely crushed Jhoulys Chacin in his career. How hard have they hit them? The Dodgers lineup has a stunning .446 wOBA in 123 plate appearances against him. 

Chacin's velocity is down this year, and his batted ball hard hit percentage allowed is the worst of his career. His swinging strike rate is also down to 7.9%.

The Dodgers have what is one of the best lineups in baseball, and I see them having success again here.

Ross Stripling is a quality starter who is underrated by many. Stripling has excellent control and his WHIP has always been far above average. In a small sample size, he has pitched well against the Brewers. 

The Dodgers have heated up again of late, and I like the short price they are laying here.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros offense has been very good of late. Houston was clearly better against lefties last year, and that has been the case again this year thus far.

A total of 9 is high in Oakland. This is a top five pitchers park in the majors. There is a massive amount of foul territory. The ball doesn't carry well here. Fly ball pitchers can have a lot of success in this park.

Houston arguably has the best bullpen in baseball (maybe second behind the Yankees). The Athletics rank in the top five in FIP in the bullpen, so they have pitched into bad luck thus far. 

Wade Miley pitches to contact, but he has a good defense behind him. Oakland's defense has been excellent this year as well. 

Frankie Montas has plenty of upside and his pitches have plenty of movement. 

Gibson has a been a strike caller behind home plate in recent seasons as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Matt Boyd has had an amazing start to the season. In his first three starts, he has a ridiculous swinging strike rate of 16.8%. He had a solid 10.2% swinging strike rate last year. Boyd is striking out 15 batters per nine innings pitched this year. Obviously, this kind of strikeout rate won't continue. Still, there are a couple reasons I like what I see from him. Boyd has upped his slider usage quite a bit this year, and that is clearly his best pitch. The Tigers are top five in the majors in bullpen ERA so far this year. 

Joe Musgrove hasn't allowed an earned run yet this year. His average exit velocity allowed is only 85.5 mph so far this year. He has only allowed one barreled batted ball so far this year. Musgrove is backed by a quality Pirates bullpen.

The Pirates offense isn't nearly as good without Polanco or Dickerson in the lineup. Both of those guys are injured right now. 

Nick Castellanos and Niko Goodrum are both questionable for the Tigers here as well.

Cool temperatures and a slight breeze blowing in are helpful as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* Jhoulys Chacin has struggled badly against the Dodgers in the past. This Dodgers lineup has a stunning .429 weighted on base average against him. In his last 12 and 2/3 innings pitched in LA against the Dodgers, Chacin has allowed a whopping 19 runs. 

The Dodgers have lost six straight games and they are trying to avoid a second straight series sweep. With the lineups already out, I like the Dodgers lineup in this game.

Ross Stripling hasn't pitched very well in his last couple starts, but I still view him as a top 30 starting pitcher in the majors. Chacin isn't even close to that.

The Dodgers have the most talent in the NL on paper, and given this situation with the better starting pitcher and trying to avoid a second straight sweep... I have to back them

Take the Dodgers.

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros smashed three home runs last night and two of them were grand slams. Houston has a deep lineup that is sometimes underappreciated because of their amazing rotation and bullpen. With injuries and some guys underachieving last year, I think the Astros offense can be better this season than they were last year.

Seattle isn't going to keep winning like this. The Mariners have a .328 BABIP on the year. While I do think Seattle has a pretty good offense, they aren't this good. Seattle's starting rotation isn't good, and their bullpen is a bottom 10 bullpen in baseball.

At one time Justin Verlander vs. Felix Hernandez would have been an elite pitching matchup. Verlander is still elite, but Felix Hernandez no longer is even close to that level. Hernandez doesn't have even close to the arsenal he had a few short years ago.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't going to be nearly as good against left handed pitching this year. Paul Goldschmidt was always a big reason this team was great against lefties. A.J. Pollock was good against lefties as well. The DBacks have good numbers against lefties in a small sample size this year though it is important to keep that in context. Zack Greinke's mashing when he has pitched weighs heavily here. 

Without Lamb, Souza, and Avila this DBacks lineup is pretty weak right now. Arizona has scored two runs or less in three of their last five games.

Merrill Kelly pitches for the DBacks here, and I like his ability to locate the curveball. He's a guy who can be hard to hit when he has it working. The Red Sox just found that out. Kelly has been pretty good in the Rays minor league organization the last few years.

Matt Strahm is a guy the DBacks haven't seen much and that should hurt them. Strahm is backed by a good bullpen as well.

Muchlinski is behind the plate here and he's clearly an under umpire based on his strikes called percentages and strikeout/walk ratios.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The weather in Atlanta is very warm for this time of the year. Temperature at first pitch is expected to be around 80 degrees here. The ball flies well in this park when it is warm.

Jason Vargas is near the end of his career, and his stuff just isn't good enough anymore. He had a 5.77 ERA last year, and the early signs from this year are no better. The Braves rank 8th in wOBA against lefties this year, and the Atlanta lineup should get plenty of scoring chances here.

Sean Newcomb is a really inconsistent pitcher. There are nights when he looks great and some nights where he looks awful. Newcomb has been struggling with his control early in the season. 

Neither pitcher is going to get any help from Alfonso Marquez, who will be the home plate umpire here. Marquez has called the lowest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire in the majors in the last five years. 

These two bullpens both rank in the bottom 8 in ERA this year, and they are both in the bottom five in FIP on the season.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The weather should play a big factor here. Sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph blowing out to center field are in the forecast. 

Mike Leake is a mediocre pitcher who has solid control, but can get hit around on a fairly regular basis. The Mariners bullpen went from a major strength last year to a major weakness this year.

Jorge Lopez had an ERA above 5 in both the majors and in Triple A last year. Lopez hasn't typically been a starter, and he can't pitch deep into the game. The Royals bullpen is the worst in baseball.

Both offenses have performed pretty well this year, and with wind howling out to center field I like the value on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers rank second to last and last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA). 

Cleveland's lineup has a strikeout percentage of a whopping 30.3%. No one else is close to that level so far this year. This team is swinging and missing a bunch. Spencer Turnbull has had very good swinging strike rates in the minors throughout his career. 

Bieber is ready for a breakout for the Indians. He has a great strikeout/walk ratio, and I always like to back or play unders with starting pitchers like that. The Tigers lineup doesn't have much pop in it. 

The wind here is forecast to be blowing in between 15 and 20 mph. That could be a big factor in this one. It's a get away day game which means a key bat could be out of the lineup as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here should play a role. With some rain and heavy winds of about 15 mph sustained with gusts to 25 mph blowing in from center field, the conditions won't be great. With temperatures in the upper 30's, it will be nasty outside. There is certainly a chance this game gets rained out, but if it is played I like the under here.

According to my umpire database, Carapazza has called the 12th highest percentage of strikes of all the umpires in the majors (91 umpires) in the past five years. The under is 88-59 in his games behind the plate as well. A very good under umpire.

Tyler Glasnow can struggle with control sometimes, but Carapazza should help out with that. The White Sox rank below average in walks, and this offense has quite a few guys who are free swingers. Glasnow has a really high upside, and this White Sox offense isn't very good.

Reynaldo Lopez has struggled with walks so far this year, but Carapazza helps and the Rays only rank 23rd in the majors in walk rate so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The LA Dodgers have a tremendous lineup. Cody Bellinger is hitting the ball extremely well of late. Justin Turner is always a tough out, and Corey Seager will accomplish big things. A.J. Pollock was a great offseason addition as well.

The Cardinals also have a deep lineup, but the Cardinals are at a big pitching disadvantage here. Dakota Hudson makes the start. Hudson has potential, but control has been a big problem for him in the past. Hudson walks far too many guys, and this Dodgers lineup will work the count. Hudson isn't likely to go very deep in the game, and the Cardinals bullpen has been used heavily of late. 

Ross Stripling is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball in my opinion. Stripling has great control and does a good job minimizing hard contact. Stripling has been very consistent in his time as a starter. 

Take the Dodgers here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The ball doesn't carry well at Citi Field when the temperatures are cool. This ranked as the best pitcher's park in the majors last year. 

Jacob Degrom has been nothing short of amazing both last year and the start of this year. Degrom has thrown 26 straight scoreless innings. Degrom also has struck out 24 of the 48 batters he has faced this year. Degrom also has 26 straight quality starts, and a quality start here would break Bob Gibson's record for most quality starts in a row.

Degrom's has been very good on the road, and nearly unhittable at home the last few years. He comes home now to face a Twins lineup that isn't all that impressive. Miguel Sano is a key cog missing from the lineup.

The Mets offense is without Cespedes and Frazier right now. The Mets will face Kyle Gibson here. Gibson's underlying stats suggest last year's breakout season is likely a sign of more positive things to come for him. His swinging strike rate was up a lot, and he did a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Both bullpens are better than average. The Twins bullpen is fairly deep and a pretty good pen overall. The Mets have an excellent bullpen with Diaz now anchoring things.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Stephen Strasburg has felt right at home pitching in Philadelphia. Strasburg has a phenomenal 1.58 ERA in 10 starts in Philadelphia in his career. Do the Phillies have a better lineup than they had then? Yes. Still, Strasburg has only allowed a .277 OBP against this Philadelphia Phillies roster. 

Aaron Nola has proven himself as a top notch pitcher in the past year. Nola has always had the excellent curveball, but his other pitches have gotten much better. Nola is elite at preventing hard contact, and that's a skill many pitchers can never master.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10-12 mph here which is definitely a bonus.

The under is 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 starts in Philadelphia. The under is 7-2 in Nola's last 9 starts vs. the Nationals.

Two top 15 starting pitchers against each other here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland ML* The market likes to fade Marco Estrada. Estrada is certainly past his prime, but the market coming in pretty big on Baltimore here makes little sense to me. 

Andrew Cashner isn't a good starting pitcher. He has had nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last couple seasons, and in his first two starts this year he has 7 walks compared to 6 strikeouts. His hard contact rate allowed is way up so far this year. Cashner will give up a lot of home runs this year, and the A's have a bunch of power in their lineup. 

Marco Estrada has only allowed a .266 OBP in 94 plate appearances against this Orioles lineup. Estrada is much better at inducing soft contact than Cashner. 

The A's have a massive bullpen advantage here, and they have the better offense as well.

Baltimore will be fortunate if they get to 60 wins. Oakland won't win as many as last year, but they are still a quality team. This price is too cheap.

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* Jon Lester has a 3.32 ERA and a 4.39 FIP last year. He was very fortunate to be 18-6 last year. His stuff isn't nearly as good as it was a few years ago. Lester is now 35 years old, and his velocity is down quite a bit. I see this as a dangerous year to be backing Lester.

Jameson Taillon is a top 20 starting pitcher in the majors. Taillon's control is impressive, and he has several plus pitches. Look for a good season from Taillon. 

The Pirates clearly have the better bullpen here. The Cubs bullpen has been a mess this year. Chicago isn't as good as they have been in recent seasons overall, and the bullpen is a big reason.

Pittsburgh has the better starting pitcher and better bullpen and we're getting a nice plus money price against a Cubs team that is struggling badly right now.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals have a deep lineup, and they will score quite a few runs this year. San Diego's offense is clearly much improved with Ian Kinsler, Eric Hosmer, and then Manny Machado in the order.

The winds are forecast to be blowing straight out at 12-13 mph during this game. The home plate umpire is Wegner and he is one of the better over umpires in the league.

Adam Wainwright used to be a good pitcher, but he isn't anymore. Wainwright has major control problems, and his fastball sits in the 87 mph range. I think it is only a matter of time until Wainwright is out of this rotation. The Padres offense isn't great, but they are much improved from last year, and I think they get to Wainwright here. 

Strahm is a fly ball pitcher and the Cardinals have power. With the wind blowing out, I see plenty of opportunities for them as well.

This total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals have two of the worst offenses in the majors.

We've got one of the best under umpires in the majors behind home plate here in Bill Miller. According to my umpire data from the spreadsheet I keep, Miller ranks third highest in the majors in strikes called percentage. He also has a great strikeout/walk ratio. He's called almost 66% of pitches of pitches a strike in his first two games behind the plate this year. The under is 36-13-2 in Miller's last 51 Sunday games behind home plate. 

Keller has some potential for Kansas City. He has been able to induce weak contact and his slider continues to improve. Detroit has a terrible .168 average against right handed pitching so far this year.

Tyson Ross can sometimes have control problems, but he should be helped by Bill Miller's strike zone, and this Kansas City offense isn't the same without Salvador Perez in the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Houston Astros ML* The Houston Astros are definitely better than they have played so far this year. Houston is one of the top three or four teams in baseball. The Astros hitting with runners in scoring position has been terrible this year, but that should improve. Houston has en elite bullpen, and they have a solid defense as well.

Aaron Brooks may have had a great start in his first start of the season, but I don't trust him. Brooks had a 4.15 FIP in Triple A last year. He had a 5.39 FIP in Triple A the year before. He doesn't miss many bats, so he'll be dependent on stranding runners and getting good fortune on balls in play.

Wade Miley isn't a great pitcher by any means, but he is backed by a really deep bullpen. Miley generally lets the opposing offense put a lot of balls in play, and the Astros have a good defense.

Oakland is 10-22 in their last 32 games in Houston. The Astros are 50-21 in their last 71 home games vs. a right handed starter.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Reds offense is a mess right now. As a team their plate discipline has been poor. The Reds are going after bad pitches and not making the pitcher work deep into the count.

How bad has the Reds offense been? The Reds haven't scored a single run in 4 of their first 7 games this season! They have scored more than 3 only one time (season opener). This lineup definitely misses Scooter Gennett. 

The Pirates offense is worse than league average. Pittsburgh does have a deep bullpen though.

Tanner Roark and Trevor Williams square off here, and both of these guys have been much better in day games than night games. Roark has a 3.13 ERA in day games and 3.90 ERA in night games. Williams has a 2.91 ERA in day games and a 4.12 ERA in night games. This is a day game in Pittsburgh. Both of these starters have pitched well in their career in the first month of the season as well.

Williams has been an under machine on the mound of late. The under is 37-13-1 in his last 51 starts. 

The under is 7-0 in the Reds seven games this year. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 11-0 angle.

Mark Ripperger is behind home plate and he has been a strong under umpire in his career. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers renew their rivalry on Friday night in Milwaukee. Chicago is off to a terrible 1-5 start to the season. Milwaukee is off to a great 6-1 start to the season. These two teams don't like each other a bit, and there have been a bunch of low scoring games between these two in recent years. The under is 24-6 in the last 30 meetings between these two teams.

Brandon Woodruff has good velocity on his fastball, and he has some pretty good secondary pitches. Woodruff has some upside, and this Cubs lineup has really struggled to string together hits this season. 

Jose Quintana has been amazing against Milwaukee in his career. Quintana has a 1.62 ERA in 11 career starts against the Brewers. He has a 1.55 ERA in six starts at Miller Park.

The Cubs bullpen is a concern, and I think putting a portion of this under play on the first five innings under is definitely something to consider. The Milwaukee bullpen is very good though, and Josh Hader is well rested for this one.

I see a close low scoring contest here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Texas Rangers are in for another long season. This Rangers offense isn't very good. The loss of Adrian Beltre hurts them, since they don't have another good option at third base. The Rangers struggled badly to score runs away from home last year. Texas ranked 23rd in the majors in team batting average last season. The Rangers aren't better on offense this year.

Texas' starting rotation is a mess. Edinson Volquez didn't throw a single pitch last year. Volquez turns 36 in three months and he is clearly on the downside of his career. He might have a great game here or there, but Volquez is a guy I'll look to fade. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and he has always had major problems with control. 

Matt Harvey has some of his velocity back, and he looks like a league average starter to me, which is a lot better than Volquez. The Angels offense is better than the Rangers as well, and it isn't very close. 

The price has gotten a little too cheap on the Angels here. I'll fade Volquez and the Rangers. I see Texas losing a lot of games this year.

Take the Angels. 

*4 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios has had some drastic home/road splits, but I would expect his performance on the road to improve in the long run. He clearly has excellent stuff.

Minnesota is clearly better than Kansas City in every way. The Twins lineup is much better than the Royals, and the Twins have improved their bullpen. Kansas City's bullpen is one of the two or three worst in baseball.

Keller had a good ERA last year, but his advanced metrics didn't support that low of an ERA. 

Kansas City is going to lose a lot of games this year, while Minnesota has improved quite a bit. This line is too cheap.

Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams have weak bullpens. Seattle has a bottom five bullpen in baseball. The Angels have a bottom ten bullpen in the majors. 

Felix Hernandez was once a very dominant starter, but he's not a top 100 pitcher in the majors now. Chris Stratton doesn't have elite stuff, and he walks too many batters. That's a bad combination, especially in the American League.

The Angels offense looked really bad against the A's in their last series, but Oakland's bullpen is elite. They won't be up against an elite bullpen here. The Mariners bullpen is already gassed and they aren't good.

I would expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances throughout this game.

The over is 6-0 in Hernandez's last 6 starts vs. an AL West opponent.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians offense is weaker this year, and they are much weaker without Francisco Lindor healthy. There is less pop in this offense right now, and they have quite a few high strikeout batters in the lineup.

Michael Pineda has never realized his full potential, but he has great swing and miss stuff. Pineda should be able to miss quite a few bats with the lineup Cleveland is going to run out there.

Carlos Carrasco is a tremendous starting pitcher. I think he is a top 10 or 12 starter in the majors. Carrasco has become so much more consistent, and his ability to work deep into the game is important since the Indians no longer have a really deep bullpen.

The Twins are without Miguel Sano and that hurts this lineup. Minnesota has plenty of power, but Carrasco has been great at suppressing home runs.

The cold weather is a plus for the under too since the ball doesn't carry well in these temperatures.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Reynaldo Lopez and Jake Junis are both starting pitchers with plenty of potential. They haven't been the most consistent starters, but they have the potential to shut down the opposition. There are a couple key factors working in their advantage on Saturday.

First, Ron Kulpa will be behind the plate, and he has always been an excellent under umpire. That's something I keep a close eye on, and it can definitely make a difference.

Second, cold weather and winds blowing in are a big help here. Early in the season (game 25 or earlier), cold weather and winds blowing in at 10 mph or more have been better than 60% to the under in the past five years. This one fits the system nicely.

The White Sox bullpen has gotten better. The Royals do still have a weak bullpen, but it is slightly better than a year ago.

Both of these offenses have tons of question marks. 

The under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals dropped a heartbreaker in game one against the Brewers. They get a second chance at Milwaukee here, and I like the matchup advantages they have.

Milwaukee's bullpen is shorthanded now. Josh Hader threw two innings in the season opener on Thursday. The Brewers other top options from the bullpen are injured now.

St. Louis starts Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has elite stuff and projects as a very high upside starting pitcher. Freddy Peralta starts for the Brewers. While he has potential, he was far less consistent than Flaherty last year and his secondary pitches aren't as good. Flaherty has better command as well.

The Cardinals added Andrew Miller in the offseason, and the back of this bullpen is very good. Paul Goldschmitt has been inserted into the middle of an already strong lineup.

At this plus money price, I like the road team.

Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals start Miles Mikolas in this one. Mikolas was really dependable a year ago. Mikolas isn't a flashy pitcher, but he has good control and limits hard contact. 

Jhoulys Chacin has some drastic splits in the first/second half of the season in his career. Chacin gets the start here for Milwaukee, and his ERA in his career in the first half of the season is 4.24. His second half ERA is nearly a full run lower at 3.36. 

Chacin hasn't just had problems early in the season. He has been hit hard by the Cardinals. In 11 appearances against St. Louis, he has a 5.72 ERA against them. 

The Cardinals have a much deeper lineup than the average National League team. The Cardinals also have a very good back end of the bullpen. The Brewers bullpen is missing a couple key guys due to injury.

I like the price here on the road team with the more consistent starting pitcher and the healthier bullpen.

The Cardinals are 13-3 in Mikolas' last 16 road starts. 

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen has a clear advantage over the Dodgers. All of the top Milwaukee bullpen pitchers are well-rested for this one, and you better believe Craig Counsell will be quick to use them in this one. There's nothing to save them for.

Ryu is certainly a good pitcher, but he has been much better at home than on the road in his career. The Brewers started slow against lefties this year, but they have been much better against left handed pitching in the last few months.

The Dodgers are elite against right handed pitching, but they ranked 22nd in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Miley starts here and we'll see Josh Hader (probably the best left handed bullpen pitcher in the majors) for an extended period here as well. 

The Brewers are 52-25 in their last 77 home games. I'll take the plus price here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros have been great at bouncing back from adversity. Houston dropped the last game in Boston and the series is now tied at 1-1. 

Dallas Keuchel starts in this one. Keuchel has been much better at home in his career than on the road. He has a career 1.15 wHIP at home and a 1.337 wHIP on the road. 

Boston has struggled against lefties this year. The Red Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 18th against lefties. 

The Houston Astros have the deepest bullpen in the American League. Houston's bullpen is well rested and ready for this one, and at the first sign of trouble they'll be used extensively. Boston's bullpen isn't bad, but they are clearly a couple notches below the Houston bullpen.

Nate Eovaldi has been good this year, but he has been very inconsistent in his career. This is a big spot for him against a very deep lineup.

Houston is 5-0 in their last 5 following a day off. Houston is 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Dodgers/Brewers Game 1 CASH* Clayton Kershaw is an excellent pitcher. There's no denying that. The Dodgers deserve to be favored here, but this short of a price on the +1.5 line is a value on Milwaukee. Why? 

The Dodgers were 14th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this year. Los Angeles was elite against right handed pitching (2nd in wOBA in the majors). 

Gio Gonzalez is a really streaky pitcher, and he enters this game throwing the ball very well. Gonzales is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts for the Brewers. Gonzalez also has a career 1.89 ERA against the Dodgers.

Kershaw has a career 4.08 ERA in the postseason. This Milwaukee lineup really came on late in the season against lefties, and they finished 10th in wOBA against lefties. 

The Brewers have a large advantage in the bullpen. The Dodgers have no depth in the bullpen, while the Brewers have one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. With the long break between series, the Brewers won't be afraid to use their best bullpen guys right away here.

The Brewers are 11-0 in their last 11 games, and this price is too good to pass up on the +1.5 line.

Take Milwaukee +1.5. 

*3 Star Yankees/Red Sox CASH* I'm taking the under in this Yankees/Red Sox clash for Friday night. It's all hands on deck this time of the year. There will be no saving the best bullpen pitchers for another day. Both of these teams have elite bullpens also, so that helps us a lot in this contest.

Chris Sale has worked back from shoulder inflammation. While on the surface his results didn't look great in his last two starts, a closer look shows he was still throwing the ball well. Sale was bitten by bad batted ball luck in those games. He walked only 1 batter and struck out 15 in those games though. Sale has had a FIP of 2.88 or lower in every single start in his last 14 outings. That's tremendous stuff. The Yankees lineup has a career average of .199 against Sale.

J.A. Happ has been good against Boston. Happ has allowed the Red Sox to hit only .224 against him in his career. Happ has thrown the ball really well this season.

Fenway Park has been a good under park when the weather is cooler and the wind is blowing in. The weather calls for 53 degrees and winds blowing in at about 6 mph here. With a temperature of 60 degrees or lower and the wind blowing in, the under is hitting at 59% at Fenway since 2005.

Take the under.