|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-06-17||Red Sox -1.5 v. Rays||1-4||Loss||-100||15 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Boston -1.5* The Boston Red Sox let me down last night in Texas with a poor effort against Texas and Andrew Cashner, but this is a very good offense. Boston had been crushing the baseball for many games in a row before last night. This is a deep lineup that will give most pitchers trouble.
Faria is a good young pitcher for the Rays, but this will be the best lineup he has gone against. The Rays bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen and I see Boston having a real chance to add some runs late in this game.
Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. Sale is averaging 12.38 strikeouts per nine innings. Tampa Bay is averaging the second highest strikeout percentage of any team in the majors against lefties this year. Sale has dominated this lineup in the past and he should again here.
Take Boston -1.5.
|07-06-17||Astros -1.5 v. Blue Jays||4-7||Loss||-100||16 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB MAJOR Mismatch* The Houston Astros start Lance McCullers here. McCullers is a tremendous young pitcher with a very high upside. The key to his improvement this year has been his improved control. He's cut his walk rate almost in half from last year.
McCullers has an elite curveball. It is one of the three or four best curveballs in the majors. Toronto rates as the second worst team in the majors against the curveball (the Padres are the worst). McCullers matches up favorably against this team.
Houston ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Astros are averaging a ridiculous 6.91 runs per game on the road this year. Yes, you read that right. No wonder they are 31-9 on the road.
Francisco Liriano isn't getting as many swinging strikes as in the past, and Houston strikes out less than any other team against lefties. I think Houston gets to Liriano in a big way here.
Take Houston -1.5.
|07-06-17||MIAMI v. ST. LOUIS -1.5||3-4||Loss||-100||11 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Run Line Value* The St. Louis Cardinals have a good offense. This is a team that should punish really bad pitchers. Tom Koehler is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. Koehler has been atrocious on the road in his career, and the Cardinals have a .431 OBP against him in 51 plate appearances.
Michael Wacha has held the Marlins to a .262 OBP in his career. Wacha is much better at home, and he's backed by a solid bullpen. The Marlins bullpen has been a major weakness throughout the course of the season.
The Marlins are a miserable 3-14 in Koehler's last 17 starts. The Cardinals are 22-8 in Wacha's last 30 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Take St. Louis -1.5.
|07-05-17||Red Sox +101 v. Rangers||2-8||Loss||-100||18 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox are on fire right now. Boston has scored 6 runs or more in all of their last six games. They have scored 7 runs or more in each of their last five games.
The Red Sox are healthy now, and this is one of the deepest lineups in all of baseball. Boston has a couple really streaky hitters in Hanley Ramirez and Jackie Bradley Jr. and both of them are on fire right now. Seeing Andrew Benintendi join the party last night was encouraging for Boston fans as well.
Andrew Cashner is coming off an injury and he isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. Cashner has a SIERA of nearly 6 on the season, and he has walked almost as many guys as he has struck out. He isn't likely to slow this Boston offense, and the Rangers bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.
Doug Fister isn't a strong pitcher at this stage of his career either, but the Boston offense has an advantage over the Texas offense, and the Red Sox bullpen is one of the top five in the majors.
Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall. Texas is 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two. A 25-0 angle.
|07-05-17||Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 11||Top||2-8||Loss||-115||18 h 53 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston has scored 7 runs or more in each of their last five games. This is a scary lineup when healthy, and they are healthy now.
The Texas Rangers have scored 31 runs in their last five games, so the Rangers offense has been very good of late as well.
This is the time of the year where the ball flies very well in Texas. The heat is really helpful and this is a great hitter-friendly park in July and August.
Both of these pitchers are guys I would expect to get hit hard here. Andrew Cashner has a SIERA of almost 6, and this Boston offense is likely to torch him. Doug Fister has a career ERA of 8.59 when pitching at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
In the Rangers last 9 home games, 7 of those games have finished at 12 runs or higher. Not many of them have had worse pitching matchups.
We draw a guy who is a decent over umpire here in Bruce Dreckman as well. He rates in the top 30% of over umpires according to my umpire spreadsheet.
The over is 5-0 in the Rangers last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 22-0 angle.
Take the over big.
|07-04-17||Padres v. Indians UNDER 8.5||1-0||Win||100||16 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Corey Kluber has been absolutely dominating hitters of late. Kluber's domination has been mind boggling. He has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last four starts. In that span, he has 46 strikeouts and only 4 walks. You don't get much better than that.
In this one, Kluber faces a Padres lineup that is worse than any lineup he has faced this year. He should make quick work of this lineup. San Diego strikes out a bunch, and Kluber is clearly on his strikeout game of late.
Trevor Cahill starts for San Diego and he's been good this year. His advanced statistics suggest his low ERA is no fluke. He does a good job getting soft contact and getting batters to hit the ball on the ground.
The wind is blowing in at 10 mph here, and that's a nice bonus.
Take the under.
|07-04-17||White Sox v. A's -1.5||6-7||Loss||-100||13 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Oakland -1.5* The Oakland A's have been cold lately, but I see this as a great chance for them to bust out of their slump. The A's are always a good team at home because no one can get very excited to go to Oakland to take on a team that isn't very good. This leads to undervalued spots for an Oakland team that isn't good, but they are now more competitive than they were in the past (increased power hitting).
Oakland hits for some good power against right handed pitching. That's good news for this one as James Shields starts against them. Shields has been downright awful the last two years. He has a 3.98 ERA, but his FIP is an astounding 6.27. Shields has a completely unsustainable 86.4% strand rate. Shields is allowing 1.99 homers per nine innings, and these Oakland lefties are in a good spot to go deep here. The A's lineup has a tremendous .401 weighted on base average against Shields. In just 96 plate appearances, they have 8 homers off Shields.
Daniel Gossett starts here for the A's, and he's a youngster with a pretty high upside. The White Sox are 28th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching and Avisail Garcia is questionable here. He's been the Sox best hitter this year.
Take Oakland -1.5.
|07-04-17||Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5||4-11||Loss||-110||8 h 22 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* This is a very early start time. These two teams aren't accustomed to this kind of start time, and I think that helps the under. Why? Anything that throws off the body clock is generally good for the under in every sport. I don't think baseball is any different. The players go through the motions in these spots more often than normal and we see quick at bats.
The other main reason for the under here is the lineups are going to look a lot different than normal. Yoenis Cespedes is out with an injury here. Michael Conforto is out with an injury. Granderson is questionable.
Trea Turner is a big loss for the Nats and I think other Nats may sit here. The Nationals played Sunday night baseball and then traveled late. They played last night and now play an 11 am eastern game. This is a classic sit some starters spot.
Seth Lugo has been pretty good this year and Joe Ross has added a decent changeup to his arsenal in his last few outings.
Given what the lineups will look like, I think this total is at least a full run too high.
Take the under.
|07-03-17||Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 9||3-6||Push||0||17 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Monday Night MONEY* The New York Yankees offense is very good, but they are pretty hobbled right now. Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird are all out of the lineup.
The Toronto Blue Jays lineup has lots of potential, but they have struggled to put it together in key situations this year.
Masahiro Tanaka is an inconsistent pitcher, but he is showing some very positive signs in recent outings. After allowing a rash of homers for a while, Tanaka hasn't allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. He has 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. He has a 5.56 ERA, but his xFIP is 3.90 and Tanaka seems to have improved command inside the zone in his last few starts.
Marcus Stroman has been very good this year. Stroman has an impressive 10.4% swinging strike rate.
Stroman and Tanaka have both been great against their opponent in this one. The Yankees hitters have a miserable .238 OBP and a .245 weighted on base average against Stroman. The Blue Jays hitters have an even worse .218 OBP and a .233 wOBA against Tanaka.
The wind is blowing in a little here, and we have two very good bullpens.
The under is 9-1 in Tanaka's last 10 vs. Toronto. The under is 5-1 in Stroman's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees.
Take the under.
|07-02-17||Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5||7-2||Loss||-110||17 h 10 m||Show|
*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball Red Hot CASH* Max Scherzer has been absolutely amazing of late. How good? Scherzer has allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 in any of those starts.
Scherzer has only 8 walks in his last seven starts. In that same span, Scherzer has 75 strikeouts. He is just blowing people away on a consistent basis.
Carlos Martinez has gotten much better as a starter in the last year. Martinez has developed his secondary pitches nicely, and he is turning into a viable ace for this Cardinals team.
Both of these offenses are good, but they are both inconsistent. The Nationals will miss Trea Turner at the top of the lineup as well.
St. Louis has struggled with runners in scoring position most of the year, and Scherzer has been able to buckle down in those spots throughout his career.
Take the under here.
|07-02-17||Rays -101 v. Orioles||1-7||Loss||-101||11 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Alex Cobb has been much better in his last few outings. Cobb has allowed only 5 earned runs in his last four starts combined. Cobb has a FIP of 3.59 or lower in each of those individual games.
He has induced more soft contact of late, and Cobb is working from ahead in the count. Cobb has been good at limiting homers throughout his career, and that is key to this handicap.
Kevin Gausman has potential, and it won't surprise me if he turns it around in the future, but he has been really bad this year. Gausman has a mind boggling 19 walks in his last six outings. To say he's been putting himself in bad positions frequently is a major understatement.
Gausman allowed a relatively high 1.4 homers per nine innings last year and is allowing an even higher 1.47 homers per nine innings this year.
Cobb has a stellar 2.00 ERA in nine outings against Baltimore in his career. Cobb also has a 2.93 ERA in day games in his career.
Take Tampa Bay.
|07-02-17||Phillies +146 v. Mets||7-1||Win||146||10 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The Philadelphia Phillies aren't a good team, but they are playing much better in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. Philadelphia has won four of their last nine games, and three of their losses in that span were one run losses.
The New York Mets aren't a very good team, and for them to be laying this kind of price here with Rafael Montero on the mound is too much. Montero had a 7.20 ERA in Triple A last year and a 8.05 ERA in the majors. He's been somewhat better this year, but his walk rate is still extremely high, and that's a major concern for the Mets.
Nick Pivetta dazzled in Triple A earlier this year and he has shown flashes of brilliance at times in the bigs this year. He has been inconsistent, but this Mets offense is overrated right now, and Pivetta certainly stands a chance here.
These odds imply a 40% chance of a Phillies win, and that's too low given the Mets pitching here and the Phillies improved play of late.
|07-02-17||Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5||6-2||Loss||-100||10 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Tim Adleman hasn't been sharp at all of late. Adleman has walked 13 batters in his last four starts. He has also allowed 7 home runs in those last four starts. He's been fortunate to not allow even more runs than he has of late. The bottom line though: if you continually walk guys and give up hard contact and the long ball at a high rate, you won't have much success in this league.
While the Cubs haven't been consistent on offense this year, they do have a lot of power and that could be a problem for Adleman on Sunday.
Jake Arrieta has been disappointing this year. Arrieta is struggling to locate his pitches right now. The Reds lineup isn't tremendous, but they are much better than expected and Joey Votto is on fire in the middle of the order right now.
John Tumpane is a tremendous over umpire and he's behind the dish here. Winds out at about 10 mph and 87 degrees in Cincinnati means the ball will fly very well.
Take the over.
|07-01-17||Rays +117 v. Orioles||10-3||Win||117||15 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB UNDERDOG Special* The Tampa Bay Rays are fourth in the majors with 123 home runs this year. Tampa Bay is also fifth in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.
Dylan Bundy is a guy I'm not high on right now. Bundy's hard contact percentage is 34.9% this year versus only 28% last year. He's groundball/fly ball rate is only 0.70. Bundy is giving up hard contact and a bunch of fly balls. After allowing zero homers in his first four starts, he's allowed 15 home runs in his last 12 starts.
The conditions will make home runs much more likely here. It is expected to be 90 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10-12 mph for this game. Tampa Bay is a dangerous opponent for Bundy in these conditions.
I'm not necessarily all that high on Jake Odorizzi, but the Orioles offense is 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Orioles also rank third in the majors in BABIP with RISP, so the Orioles have been very lucky on offense this year. Baltimore is without Chris Davis and J.J. Hardy.
I like the plus money price here.
Take Tampa Bay.
|06-30-17||Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres||10-4||Win||100||18 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Alex Wood in this one, and it would be hard to overstate how good he has been this year. Wood has more dominant numbers than Clayton Kershaw this year. Is he better? Of course not. Still, Wood's advanced metrics all suggest his breakout is no fluke.
Wood has a 1.86 ERA and a 2.12 FIP this season. He has a ridiculous swinging strike rate of 12.9%. Only 23.6% of batted balls have been hit hard against him.
There's no reason to expect San Diego to have success here. They are easily the worst team in the majors against lefties with a .218 average and a wOBA that is 13 points lower than the second worst team in the majors.
Clayton Richard has been bombed by the Dodgers in the past. The Dodgers hitters have a .412 OBP in a 68 plate appearances.
I'm hesitant to lay this kind of juice on the run line in most spots, but the Dodgers are way better in every aspect of the game. I think this one is a comfortable Dodgers win.
Take Los Angeles -1.5.
|06-30-17||Rays -122 v. Orioles||6-4||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Chris Tillman has been awful of late. How bad? He's allowed five runs or more in six straight starts. If your starter is allowing that many runs, you are in some serious trouble.
Couple that with the fact that the Orioles bullpen has the single worst FIP in the majors in the past 30 days, and you have a dangerous game for Baltimore. Tillman's velocity is down and his mechanics have been terrible so far this year. He has to prove something to me before I can stop wanting to go against him.
Jacob Faria starts for the Rays. He has had a great strikeout/walk ratio through the minors and he now has 29 strikeouts and 5 walks in the majors. He has allowed only 2 homers in four starts. He's a pretty good young pitcher.
The Rays are 5th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Orioles are 19th. The Rays are 7th in overall wOBA in the past month. The Orioles are 22nd.
I'll back the team with the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much deeper lineup.
Take Tampa Bay.
|06-29-17||Braves v. Padres UNDER 8.5||0-6||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres are hitting a miserable .213 against lefties this year. That's easily the worst mark in the league. The Padres have a weighted on base average against lefties of only .277. The second worst mark in the majors is .291.
Jaime Garcia isn't a great lefty, but he shouldn't have to be great against San Diego to have a good outing here. Garcia has a 4.03 ERA on the year, and he's coming off a bad start, but his soft contact percentage is up this year and overall he's had a decent season.
Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. This is a guy with multiple plus pitches, and he's going to strike out a bunch of batters in his career. Lamet is a perfect fit for this park too. He gives up a lot of fly balls, but that's a big plus at a park like this one.
The Braves rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching, so this is a favorable matchup for Lamet.
Take the under here.
|06-29-17||Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10||3-6||Loss||-105||16 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins start Kyle Gibson here. Gibson has an awful 6.23 ERA on the year. His FIP is 5.60 and his SIERA is 5.39. Gibson is giving up a ton of hard contact (38.2%). He's walking 4.57 batters per nine innings, and he's allowing 1.52 homers per nine. He's capable of once in a while throwing a gem, but he is usually really bad.
David Price has had a finger injury. Price is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings this year, which is easily the highest of his career. Price has a 4.76 ERA and a 5.70 FIP so far this year. He hasn't been himself, and this Twins lineup has several very good hitters in the middle of the order.
The weather is a big factor in this play for me. The temperature will be 75 degrees and the winds are blowing out toward left field at 15 mph or higher through this game. When the temperature is 72 degrees or higher and winds are blowing out to center or left at Fenway, the over is 72-41 in the last 113 contests (64% over).
The over is 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts vs. the AL East. The over is a whopping 11-0 in Price's last 11 starts following a quality start in his last outing. A 15-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-28-17||Rays v. Pirates OVER 8.5||2-6||Loss||-100||17 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have been amazing against right handed pitching this year. The Rays are fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching and they are first in the majors in ISO against righties. Tampa Bay faces an average right handed starter here in Ivan Nova. Nova doesn't walk anyone, but he also doesn't strike hardly anyone out (less than six per nine innings this year).
John Tumpane is the umpire here, and he's one of the better over umpires in baseball. Tumpane has a small strike zone and I think that hurts Tampa Bay's Blake Snell a good amount here. Snell has always had trouble finding the strike zone, and Tumpane won't make it easy on him. Snell has walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in his big league career, and his minor league walk numbers aren't much better.
The over is 5-0 in Snell's last 5 starts. The over is 59-29-2 in the Rays last 90 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 11-2-1 in the Pirates last 14 interleague home games.
Take the over.
|06-27-17||Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 9||3-4||Win||100||21 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox are hitting a miserable .245 against right handed pitching this year. The Yankees have been tremendous against righties, but they are hitting an ugly .242 against lefties.
Luis Severino is a good young right hander for the Yankees. Severino has a 3.30 ERA and a 3.17 xFIP. He's backed by a Yankees bullpen that is back intact with Chapman healthy once again. This is clearly one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Jose Quintana pitched into some really bad luck early this year, but he has four good starts in a row. Quintana has proven himself as a good pitcher in the last few seasons, and right now the oddsmakers are still too low on him. The White Sox have one of the top ten bullpens in baseball as well.
The early sharp money is clearly on the under here. I agree and we have a decent umpire in Wolf and moderate weather with light wind here.
Take the under.
|06-27-17||Yankees v. White Sox +1.5||3-4||Win||100||18 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The New York Yankees aren't playing well right now. They've been especially bad on the road, and against left handed pitching. They are on the road here, and they are against a good lefty in Jose Quintana.
The Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 15th against left handed pitching.
New York is 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 road games.
The White Sox start Jose Quintana, and 8 of his last 11 starts have been very good. He was the sharpest he has been all year in his last start. He shut out the Twins and walked none while striking out 9.
Luis Severino is a good right hander for the Yankees, but he has pitched worse in recent games than he did early in the season. The Yankees are 1-8 in Severino's last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
I generally don't take the +1.5 line, but in a game I think should be low scoring and laying minimal juice, I think it has value here. If you want to bet half on the +1.5 and half on the ML, I think that's a good plan as well.
Take the White Sox +1.5.
|06-27-17||A's v. Astros UNDER 9||6-4||Loss||-100||7 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros start Mike Fiers here. Fiers was terrible at the start of the season, but he has been amazing of late. In Fiers' last three starts, he has thrown just over 20 innings, and he has given up only 10 hits during that span. In his last five starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in each outing.
What's behind Fiers improvement? He is getting more ground balls (giving up less homers obviously) and getting soft contact. His hard contact rate is only 27.9% compared to 35.3% a year ago.
The A's offense is hitting only .246 against Fiers as a unit. Oakland strikes out a lot and Fiers strikes 7.73 batters per nine innings.
Sean Manaea is a young guy I'm very high on. Manaea has excellent stuff, and as long as he has his control I like his chances of slowing down Houston here. The Astros are hitting only .171 against him in a career 122 plate appearances.
The under got a reverse line movement trigger at Pinnacle earlier today, and there has been some clear sharp support for the under at the key level of 9.
Take the under.
|06-26-17||Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5||1-4||Win||100||21 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox offense has been really streaky so far this year. Boston has scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 10 games. The Red Sox are struggling to string together hits on a consistent basis.
Jose Berrios has a magnificent curveball, and I think he can keep the Red Sox bats honest here if he stays in his current form. Berrios is giving up hard contact on only 22.8% of batted balls, and that's a tremendous figure. He hasn't given up more than 4 runs in a game this year, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his 8 starts.
Chris Sale has been the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball this year. The Twins have a good offense, but it isn't elite. Sale has a 2.85 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 2.63 and his FIP is only 1.97. If anything, he's been unlucky.
The temperature won't be very hot at Fenway here, which means less carry for the ball.
The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in Berrios' last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. A 30-0 angle.
Take the under.
|06-25-17||Mets +131 v. Giants||8-2||Win||131||15 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The New York Mets won the first two games in this series. I was on them in each of those games, and at this price I have to go back to the Mets again here.
Rafael Montero hasn't proven himself in the majors, and there's certainly a chance he'll get hit hard here, but the Giants have been very good at making mediocre pitchers look great this year. Montero walks a bunch of guys, but the Giants are 24th in the majors in walk rate.
Matt Moore is allowing 39% of batted balls to be hit hard. That's a really high hard hit rate, and Moore hasn't been very good regardless of where he pitches this year.
This is a pure price play for me. Why should the Giants be laying this much against anyone right now? The Giants are 5-20 in their last 25 games. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter.
Take the Mets.
|06-25-17||Orioles v. Rays OVER 9.5||8-5||Win||105||11 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been tremendous against right handed pitching this year. This Rays team has a ton of power, and they can rack up the homers in a hurry.
Chris Tillman is throwing the ball as bad as any pitcher in the majors coming into this game. Tillman has allowed a minimum of 5 runs in each of his last 5 starts. His velocity is down and Tillman isn't fooling anyone right now. He has changed his arm slot around and it appears he may still be having shoulder problems.
Jake Odorizzi has an ERA of 3.78, but a FIP of 5.34 so far this year. He has a low BABIP of .238, which should regress to the mean. Odorizzi has a home run problem this year, and the Orioles are another team that can smash a bunch of homers.
These are two of the five worst bullpens in the majors right now, and I expect scoring chances late here.
The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in Tillman's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 9-0 in the Rays last 9 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 11-0 in the Rays last 11 games played on turf. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 51-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-24-17||Tigers v. Padres +101||3-7||Win||101||23 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Detroit Tigers have been pure fade material of late. Detroit has arguably the worst bullpen in baseball, and now they are starting one of the very worst starting pitchers in baseball for this one in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has been in the bullpen getting bashed most of the year. His hard contact allowed percentage is a ridiculously high 42.7%. If that isn't bad enough, Sanchez's control has become a major problem (and that poor control in and out of the zone leads to those hard hit balls obviously).
Dinelson Lamet is a guy with a high upside for San Diego. He has great strikeout potential. Lamet has punched out more than 10 batters per nine innings at a consistent rate throughout multiple levels of baseball. This Tigers lineup will be without a key hitter in Victor Martinez. Detroit loses a bat also from the NL rules, and Detroit is a team playing with no confidence right now.
The Padres are 18-18 at home this year, and while they aren't a good team, they play hard. They're up against a terrible pitching combination of Sanchez and the Tigers pen here.
Take San Diego.
|06-24-17||Mets +100 v. Giants||5-2||Win||100||17 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Mets won big as an underdog on Friday night. I see value on them again Saturday.
San Francisco arrived in the middle of the night after their game against Atlanta on Thursday night. The Giants flew home to San Francisco, and they got a short night of sleep. That was following a long road trip of eight games. Often former players say the second game back from a long trip in a different time zone is even tougher than the first as they try to adjust. This still isn't a good spot for the Giants.
Johnny Cueto is giving up way more hard contact this year, and he's paying for it. Cueto has a 4.42 ERA and a 4.44 FIP on the season. He's giving up the long ball far more often than he has in the past.
Jacob Degrom has had some bad luck this year. Degrom has an amazing swinging strike rate of 14.4%, so he's fooling a lot of batters. He has been spectacular in his last couple games. Degrom has allowed one run in his last 17 innings pitched.
Degrom is 16-4 in his career in day games. He has a spectacular 1.71 ERA in those games.
Take the New York Mets.
|06-24-17||Reds v. Nationals OVER 9.5||3-18||Win||100||16 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* I have to play the over here. Homer Bailey is making his first big league start after a major injury, and I don't think he'll pitch deep into the game. The Reds bullpen is gassed right now, and they have 5.47 FIP in the last two weeks.
Joe Ross starts for the Nationals. He's really inconsistent and he usually doesn't pitch deep into the game either. The Nationals have a 5.34 FIP in the last two week.
These are definitely two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and they should be in the game for quite a few innings.
The Reds offense has been underrated this year, and the Nationals offense has been the most consistent in the NL.
Paul Emmel is the umpire behind the plate. The over is 8-5 in his games this year. The over was 14-13 in his games last year. The over was 18-14 in his games in 2015. The over was 18-10 in his games behind the plate in 2014. Some impressive consistency to the over from him.
A 91 degree temperature at gametime is helpful here as well.
The over is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in the Nationals last 4 home games. The over is 7-0-1 in Ross' last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Ross' last 4 starts following a quality start. A 20-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-23-17||Mets +121 v. Giants||11-4||Win||121||9 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The San Francisco Giants don't deserve to be this big of a favorite over anyone right now. The Giants played past midnight in Atlanta last night. They lost that game 12-11 and then took a red eye flight home to San Francisco. No doubt it was a long night for the Giants.
This Giants team isn't accustomed to losing so many games, and they aren't going to have anything to play for down the stretch this year. That could create opportunities going against them when they are favored.
The Mets were in Los Angeles playing the Dodgers, and they are the much more rested team going into this game.
Ty Blach is a pitch to contact guy. He's striking out only 4 batters per nine innings. Seth Lugo has a higher upside than Blach. I do worry about the Mets bullpen here, but this price is too good to pass up.
The Giants are 2-6 in their last 8 home games after a road trip of 7 days or more. The Giants are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 8-1 in Lugo's last 9 starts.
Take the Mets.
|06-23-17||Blue Jays -121 v. Royals||4-5||Loss||-121||26 h 59 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB TGIF Bookie CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays go to Kansas City on Friday night. I like the matchup for Toronto here.
Jakob Junis has been really shaky so far this year for the Royals. Junis is a fly ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of hard contact. His hard contact rate is 46.7% which is about as bad as you'll ever see. Batters are really barreling up against him.
J.A. Happ has been much better in his last couple starts. After having some control issues when he came back from the DL, Happ has a combined 1 walk and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. His ERA is 4.26, but his xFIP is 3.12.
The Blue Jays have the better bullpen here as well. No doubt they have the better lineup also.
Kansas City is 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a left handed starter. The Blue Jays are 21-8 in Happ's last 29 starts.
|06-22-17||Cubs -122 v. Marlins||Top||11-1||Win||100||16 h 9 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB Moneyline GAME of the MONTH* The Chicago Cubs have certainly been a disappointment this year. I still believe the Cubs will hit their stride, and I think they are finally starting to be underpriced.
This was a game I had circled for the last couple days. It was always going to be a play, but the price made this a five star top play. This is a terrific price on the Cubs against a pitcher like Jeff Locke.
Locke has been a subpar lefty his whole career, and though his numbers are a bit better so far this year, I consider him a good fade until he proves it for a length of time. Locke walked 4 Cubs in 4 and 2/3 innings earlier this year. He allowed 4 runs in that game.
Locke faces a Cubs lineup that has struggled against right handed pitching, but they have been very good against lefties. The Cubs are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They are first in the majors in ISO against lefties. They walk more than any other team in the majors against lefties, and Locke has had command issues in his career.
Jake Arrieta hasn't been very good this year, but he has shown signs of turning the corner of late. He hasn't allowed more than 5 hits in any of his last six starts. His velocity is starting to come back up.
The Marlins are elite against lefties, but they are only mediocre against right handed pitching. Miami has a .318 OBP against right handed pitching and a .343 OBP against lefties.
Finally, in a large sample size, the Cubs have absolutely beaten up Jeff Locke in the past. In 142 plate appearances, the Cubs have a .453 weighted on base average and a .349 average.
This price is too cheap for a team with the upside of the Cubs against a pitcher like Jeff Locke.
Take the Chicago Cubs big.
|06-22-17||Angels v. Yankees -1.5||10-5||Loss||-115||16 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees start Luis Severino here. I don't think Severino has gotten enough credit for how well he has pitched this year. Severino has been consistent and tremendous.
Severino has a 2.99 ERA and a 3.14 xFIP. He ranks in the top 10 or 15 starting pitchers in many key categories including both of these. He is sporting an amazing 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Most hard throwers who miss bats allow a lot of hard contact, but only 28% of batted balls off Severino have been of the hard contact variety. Severino has allowed more than 2 runs in only four of his 13 starts this year.
The Angels rank dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching when Mike Trout is out of the lineup. This isn't a good offense.
Jesse Chavez starts here and he's giving up more hard contact than he ever has before in his career. Chavez has an ERA over 6 on the road, and he's prone to the long ball. The ball is carrying well at Yankee Stadium now, and I think Chavez has a real chance of getting lit up in this one.
Take New York -1.5.
|06-22-17||Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 9||2-4||Win||100||11 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates battle on Thursday afternoon.
Chase Anderson has been really good of late for Milwaukee. Anderson is a streaky pitcher, and right now he is in the zone. Anderson has a 2.92 ERA and a 3.38 FIP. He has been getting a lot of pop ups of late, so hitters aren't squaring up on his pitches very often.
Anderson is at his best at home, and during the daytime. Anderson has a 2.03 ERA at home this year (3.61 in his career). He has a 3.36 career ERA in day games, and this year that number is 2.68. He's made nine starts this year under a retractable roof being closed (Miller Park's roof will likely be closed due to hot temperatures and rain chances here), and in those 9 games he has a 1.73 ERA.
Ivan Nova pitches to contact, but I love the fact that he virtually never walks anyone. That generally helps him limit damage.
Dan Bellino is the umpire here, and only one game he has called has gone over the total this year. In his career 55.5% of his games have stayed under.
It's a get away day game and some of the better hitters might sit this one out.
Take the under.
|06-21-17||Tigers v. Mariners -125||5-7||Win||100||28 h 56 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander on Wednesday night.
Verlander has been really bad this year. His 4.50 ERA doesn't even tell the whole picture of how bad he has been. His hard contact percentage is 10% higher than last year and is the highest of his career. Batters are barreling up on him very often. His SIERA is 5.02. Verlander has had issues with control in recent starts as well.
The Mariners start James Paxton. Paxton was amazing early in the season, but he has been shaky of late. If he was in better form, this would have been a 5 star play, but I do still like it a good amount. Paxton goes back home to a pitcher-friendly park and faces a Tigers team without a key contributor in Victor Martinez.
The Tigers bullpen is one of the two or three worst in the majors. Seattle's bullpen is at least as good as the league average and some stats make them a little better than average.
The Mariners have a lot of value at this price.
|06-21-17||Mets v. Dodgers -1.5||2-8||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on LA Dodgers -1.5* Tyler Pill makes a start here against the red hot Dodgers bats. I don't think it will go well for him. Just last year, Pill was in Double A and wasn't even considered much of a prospect. He struck out only 4.22 batters per nine innings at Triple A this season. He had a 4.13 FIP and a 5.09 xFIP at Triple A.
The Dodgers are hottest lineup in the National League, and they have been the best lineup against right handed pitching in the NL so far this season. The Dodgers have scored 40 runs in their last 4 games. I don't think a guy with limited stuff like Pill is a good fit to slow them down. The Mets bullpen is overworked of late, and they aren't very good anyways.
The Mets aren't good against lefties, and while Rich Hill has been mediocre this year I think he'll be decent enough here. The Dodgers bullpen is excellent, and that's a major advantage for them here.
Take the LA Dodgers -1.5.
|06-21-17||Pirates +113 v. Brewers||3-4||Loss||-100||26 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pirates start Trevor Williams here. He is a decent prospect who has pitched better in recent outings. Williams started out very poorly in the bigs, but improved control has made a big difference for him of late.
Junior Guerra starts for the Brewers here. He has had awful control of late. Guerra has a 2.84 ERA and a 6.06 FIP. He is in line for some serious regression. In his last five starts, he has at least 3 walks in each of them. He has walked four guys in each of his last two outings. That isn't a recipe for success in the long run.
The Brewers offense is still pretty good, but they do miss Ryan Braun. The Pirates are finally getting healthy and with Polanco contributing on offense now I do expect improved numbers from Pittsburgh moving forward.
Fading a pitcher favored who has major control problems is a strategy I've used successfully in the past. I'm taking the Pirates here plus the money.
|06-21-17||Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 11||7-5||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Tyson Ross and Joe Biagini are the starters in this one Wednesday night in Texas.
Ross is a guy who walks a ton of batters, and that usually comes back to bite you in a park like this, especially against a good offense. Ross walked 5.30 batters per nine innings in four Triple A starts this year. He had a 7.71 ERA and 6.71 FIP in the minors. He pitched well in his first big league start, but I think he'll have a tough time against this deep Blue Jays lineup. He doesn't pitch deep in the game and the Rangers bullpen isn't good at all.
Biagini has had declining velocity in his last few starts, and he's been prone to blowups on occasion. Pitching in Texas in 90 degree heat and against a lineup that is very good against right handed pitching is a tough matchup for him.
Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and over umpires don't come much better than Holbrook. The over has hit 55.6% of the time in his games behind home plate in his career.
Take the over.
|06-20-17||Astros v. A's +108||8-4||Loss||-100||20 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's are a sneaky good home team. The A's are 22-14 at home this year. They just swept the Yankees in a 4 game series this past weekend.
Houston is a team I do not want to fade often this year. They are the one team I have a preseason World Series future on for this year, so I obviously like them a lot. Still, the Astros are in a flat spot here. They had a very late night on Sunday night after their tough loss to the Red Sox and got into Oakland in the early morning. They won in the first game of this series, but it is often said by former players that the second game is tougher in this kind of a situation.
Sonny Gray has been fantastic of late. He's had bad batted ball luck, but Gray's swinging strike rate and velocity are at their highest points of his career.
Martes has walked tons of batters in the minors and he has a high walk rate in a small sample size in the majors as well. I like to fade favorites with a starting pitcher who walks a lot of guys.
|06-20-17||White Sox +152 v. Twins||7-9||Loss||-100||17 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* This isn't a game I had circled to play, but this is a price grab I can't pass up. The line here is implying the White Sox have a 39.68% chance of winning this game. In MLB, the worst teams win at least 40% of their games, and that's important to remember when looking to play bad teams.
The White Sox aren't good, but I'm not convinced the Twins are very good either. Minnesota is likely to continue to regress in the coming weeks. Also, the Twins have been worse at home than on the road.
Ervin Santana has been a terrible big favorite in his career. When starting as a -130 to -190 favorite in his career, Santana's teams are 57-53. He's barely winning 50% of the games. Santana is due for some serious regression due to batted ball luck.
The White Sox have a clear bullpen advantage here as well. If Derek Holland can pitch a decent game, I like our chances.
Take the White Sox.
|06-20-17||Blue Jays -119 v. Rangers||1-6||Loss||-119||25 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Toronto* The Toronto Blue Jays face Nick Martinez on Tuesday night. Martinez is a guy I've done well fading throughout his career. Martinez doesn't miss enough bats, and this Toronto lineup is in a great hitter's park at Texas. I think Martinez will have a lot of trouble with this deep lineup.
Francisco Liriano has shown improvement since coming back from the disabled list. Liriano still has trouble finding the strike zone at times, but DJ Reyburn is behind the plate for this one and he has a bigger strike zone than most umpires.
Texas ranks 27th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Rangers are also at a severe disadvantage in the bullpen. Martinez doesn't pitch deep in the game often, so I think we'll see a lot of the Rangers pen here.
The Rangers are 2-8 in Martinez's last 10 starts following a quality start in his last outing. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 starts.
|06-20-17||Giants v. Braves OVER 9||6-3||Push||0||17 h 9 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves have a very good .272 batting average and a .339 OBP against lefties this year. Matt Moore isn't a good left handed pitcher. Moore gives up a ton of hard contact. How much? An amazing 41% of batted balls against him are hit hard. That's one of the three worst marks in the majors. No wonder this guy has an ERA above 6.
Julio Teheran has an ERA over 7 at home this year. Teheran has a 4.86 ERA, but his FIP is 5.67 and his xFIP is 5.43. Teheran's walk rate has doubled from last year. He's allowing nearly 2 home runs per every nine innings pitched. The Giants offense has been much better on the road than at home.
Both of these bullpens rank among the ten worst in baseball. Rain is possible here, and if we do get rain it won't be a terrible thing to see a lot of the bullpens.
The over is 8-0-1 in Matt Moore's last 9 road starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-1 in Moore's last 7 starts following a Giants loss in the previous game. The over is 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 following a quality start in his last outing. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 with five days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts after the Braves score 5 runs or more. Paul Emmel is a great over umpire long term and the over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 behind the plate. A 42-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-20-17||Nationals v. Marlins OVER 9||12-3||Win||100||16 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* Gio Gonzalez isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Gonzalez doesn't quite have the same dominant curveball he once did, and his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are at the worst point they have been since his rookie season. The Marlins smash left handed pitching. Miami ranks in the top 5 in the majors in almost all categories against lefties. The Marlins have a solid .350 OBP as a team against Gio Gonzalez in his career.
Edinson Volquez had a real nice couple game stretch with the no hitter included, but this isn't a guy I trust at all. Volquez is giving up more hard contact this year, and his SIERA is 4.81. He'll be up against a Washington lineup that has been the most consistent lineup in the National League this year.
Neither of these bullpens are any good. In the late innings, there should be plenty more chances to score.
Take the over.
|06-20-17||Cardinals v. Phillies OVER 9||8-1||Push||0||17 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is really streaky, and they have been hot of late. I think the Cardinals are one of the best offenses in the NL, and I expect them to keep hitting the ball well.
Jeremy Hellickson has been awful this year. Hellickson is striking out only 3.97 batters per nine innings. That's awful. He has an xFIP of 6.09 and he has been in terrible form of late. St. Louis should get to him and then the Phillies terrible bullpen is in.
Mike Leake started the season hot, but he's been hit hard of late. Leake has allowed 18 runs in his last 4 starts.
The wind will be blowing out at 10 mph with a temperature of 80 at the start of this game. Those are certainly favorable conditions.
The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 2-0-2 in Hellickson's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-19-17||Nationals -108 v. Marlins||7-8||Loss||-108||18 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins have played better of late, and they have made sharp bettors some solid money in recent weeks, but I am going to fade them here.
Miami is much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching, while they have been in the top six all year in wOBA against lefties.
The Marlins have been money burners against right handed pitching for the last few seasons. Since the start of 2015, $100 bettors who bet on Miami in every game that they faced a right hander would be down $3,048 right now.
Tanner Roark is nothing special, and he isn't the reason I'm making this bet. The primary reason is fading Justin Nicolino. Anytime I can get one of the five or six best teams in baseball at nearly even money against Justin Nicolino, I'm taking them.
Nicolino had a 4.77 ERA and a terrible 6.43 FIP in Triple A this year. He doesn't miss any bats. His career swinging strike rate is an abysmal 5.1%. The Nationals are excellent against lefties (top 5 in the majors) and they should make a lot of hard contact here.
The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Marlins are 1-11 in Nicolino's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games that Nicolino starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-1 angle.
|06-18-17||Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9||5-4||Push||0||10 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Robbie Ray has started six games on the road this year. He has allowed a grand total of four runs in those six road starts. Ray has thrown a shutout in his last three straight road contests. He has allowed 4, 2, and 2 hits in those three starts. Simply put, Ray has been absolutely dominating on the road. Ray has an ERA almost 2 full runs lower on the road in his career than at home, so his outperformance on the road is nothing new.
Ray will be up against a bad offense in the Philadelphia Phillies in this one. Philadelphia has a terrible .224 batting average against lefties on the season.
Ben Lively has been solid in his first three starts for the Phillies. Lively was pretty good in the minors, and he suppresses home runs about as well as anyone.
The Diamondbacks offense has great numbers overall for the year, but they aren't even close to as good away from home. Arizona has only a .288 weighted on base average on the road. At home, their wOBA is .372.
The under is 31-14 in the DBacks last 45 road games.
Take the under.
|06-18-17||Nationals v. Mets UNDER 8.5||1-5||Win||110||11 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* In his career as an umpire, Ron Kulpa has been one of the best under umpires in baseball. Kulpa has seen 57.5% of games stay under the posted total when he is behind home plate.
Jacob Degrom has pitched into some bad luck this year. I'm confident he'll have a good year again by the time the season is through. His strikeout rate is actually up this year, but he's been victimized by bad batted ball luck.
Degrom has excelled in two areas in his career. He has been great at home. Degrom has a 2.14 ERA at Citi Field. Also, Degrom has been superb when pitching in day games. Degrom has an amazing 1.78 ERA in 31 starts during the daytime in his career.
Joe Ross is inconsistent, but he has good stuff. Kulpa should help him quite a bit, and I see this Mets offense as a little overvalued right now.
Take the under.
|06-18-17||White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5||3-7||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The White Sox have been great at making lefties work hard, and they've been able to string together a lot of big innings against lefties (something they rarely do against righties).
J.A. Happ has been inconsistent in his first few starts back from an injury. He'll be tested by the White Sox here.
James Shields is a guy I'm really low on. Shields is way past his prime. He doesn't have the control he did in the past. Shields isn't getting swings at pitches outside the zone like he did in the past either. He is coming off a shoulder injury and gets thrown into the fire against a good Blue Jays lineup.
Mark Wegner is a good over umpire. He's consistent among the bottom 10 umpires in the majors in percentage of pitches called a strike.
I think both teams put up several runs here.
Take the over.
|06-17-17||Mariners +118 v. Rangers||4-10||Loss||-100||3 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Mariners are the team I believe has the higher upside here. Texas' bullpen holds them back quite a bit, and the Rangers offense is less consistent than Seattle.
Only 30% of the tickets are on Seattle here, but a whopping 75% of the money is on the Mariners. That's a serious sharp move on the underdog, and that's something you have to respect.
Martin Perez is giving up the highest hard contact rate of his career, and the Rangers don't deserve to be favored by this much over a quality team when he's on the mound.
Delino DeShields has been key to this Texas lineup at the top of the order lately, and he's sitting this game out.
Take Seattle plus the money.
|06-17-17||Cardinals v. Orioles OVER 9.5||7-15||Win||100||13 h 55 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Adam Wainwright isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Wainwright has a swinging strike rate of only 7.9%. He has a SIERA of almost 5. Wainwright has been able to be good at home, but his road ERA this year is a miserable 7.28.
Wade Miley has finally come back down to earth hard of late. Miley is having major control problems this year, and he's been wild both inside and outside of the zone. That has led to increased hard contact and some major problems in general for Miley.
The weather will be a big help here. It is expected to be 85 degrees with 12-14 mph winds blowing out during this game.
The Orioles bullpen is one of my lowest ranked bullpens in the majors without Zach Britton. They have some long guys who are simply overmatched right now. Miley isn't likely to stay in the game long. The Cardinals offense is much deeper than the average NL offense, and that helps a lot in an interleague game.
The over is 7-0 in the Cardinals last 7 interleague games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in Wainwright's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A combined 41-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-17-17||Yankees v. A's +116||2-5||Win||116||2 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Oakland* The New York Yankees are sitting a bunch of key players today. The Yankees don't have Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, and Aaron Hicks. Jacoby Ellsbury is still on the DL.
Jesse Hahn has typically been very good when pitching at home. His style of pitching fits this park very nicely. The A's are a tricky team at home. Oakland isn't very good, but year after year they pull a lot of upsets on their home field.
The Yankees are in a tailspin right now. The bullpen has been overused, and Tanaka has been very shaky of late.
The A's do have a lot of power against right handed pitching, and Tanaka is more than capable of giving up multiple home runs here.
Take the plus money price.
|06-17-17||White Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5||5-2||Loss||-115||10 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays start Marcus Stroman on Saturday afternoon. Stroman is their ace and he has allowed 2 runs or less in all but three of his starts so far this year.
Stroman will be up against a White Sox team that ranks third from the bottom in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Chicago had an out of body experience when smashing Joe Biagini on Friday night. I don't think they'll do the same to the much more talented Marcus Stroman.
Mike Pelfrey isn't any good, and he is even worse during the daytime in his career. Day/night splits have been important for me over the years, and Pelfrey has a terrible 5.04 ERA in day games in his career. His night ERA is 4.34.
The Blue Jays bullpen is an underrated group, and I think they'll be working to protect a nice lead in this one.
The early weekend games have been good to home teams in the long term as well. Look for Toronto to win comfortably here.
Take Toronto -1.5.
|06-16-17||Yankees v. A's UNDER 8||6-7||Loss||-100||7 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The over has been on a big run in Oakland games of late, and I think that is creating some nice value for us on the under here. The A's are a team that strikes out a bunch. Luis Severino is averaging 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Severino hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last five starts. With young pitchers, recent form matters quite a bit to me.
Sean Manaea is a guy I like quite a bit. Manaea is good at getting guys to chase bad pitches. He has excellent movement on all of his stuff.
The Yankees are first in the majors in wOBA against righties, but they are only 13th against lefties, and Manea is a good lefty.
This is clearly still a park that is pitcher-friendly as well.
I'll take the under here.
|06-16-17||Mariners -131 v. Rangers||4-10||Loss||-131||5 h 0 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* The Seattle Mariners start James Paxton here. He is striking out more than 10 guys per nine innings of work, and Paxton has an excellent mix of pitches in his arsenal.
Texas is a hitters park, and the weather is very hot today, but Paxton is generally good at suppressing homers. The Mariners bullpen is definitely better than the Rangers pen as well.
Tyson Ross hasn't proven worthy of trusting at all. In Triple A in four starts this year, Ross had a 7.71 ERA and his FIP was 6.70. He wasn't fooling anyone. He's had a lengthy injury history, and I don't think this is the same guy we saw a few years ago.
The Rangers rank dead last in the majors in wOBA against lefties. This Mariners lineup is hitting the ball really well right now.
Only 53% of the bets are on Seattle, but 81% of the money is on the Mariners. I'll side with the sharps on Seattle.
Take the Mariners.
|06-16-17||Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds||3-1||Win||100||16 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Los Angeles Dodgers are an excellent team. The Dodgers have lineup depth that very few National League teams ever have. They also have the best bullpen in the National League.
Alex Wood is averaging 11.24 strikeouts per nine innings. Wood has a tremendous 2.01 ERA and a 1.88 FIP on the year. Wood has been very consistent this year, and the Reds lineup is no better than average.
Tim Adleman is a subpar right handed pitcher. The Dodgers are excellent against right handed pitching. There are so many very good lefties in this lineup, and Adleman is a guy who usually struggles after multiple times through the lineup.
The Reds rank as one of the worst bullpens in the majors and the Dodgers are one of the two or three best. A mismatch all around.
Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|06-16-17||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||11-4||Loss||-119||15 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Totals Trends SMASHER* The Chicago White Sox consistently rank among the worst teams in the majors against right handed pitching. The White Sox strike out at a high rate, and their hard contact rate is one of the worst in the majors against righties.
Joe Biagini has impressed me a lot this year. Biagini has a 3.38 ERA and a 2.83 FIP. He is walking only 1.93 batters per nine innings, so his control is excellent. He should be able to avoid big innings against this weak White Sox lineup.
Jose Quintana has been subpar this year, but he has superb numbers in Toronto in his career, and Quintana is a guy who I believe will improve from now through the end of the year. Quintana has allowed a grant total of zero runs in his last 19 and 2/3 innings pitched in Toronto. He has 7 walks and 24 strikeouts in that span.
The White Sox bullpen is slightly above average and the Blue Jays bullpen has been excellent in the past month (top six in the majors).
The under is 23-4-1 in Quintana's last 28 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. Toronto. The under is 4-0 in Biagini's last 4 starts.
Take the under.
|06-15-17||Rays v. Tigers OVER 9.5||3-5||Loss||-100||17 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Justin Verlander hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Verlander has a 4.68 ERA and a 4.92 SIERA. Verlander is giving up way more hard contact this year (38% vs. only 28% last year). He no longer suppresses home runs as he did in the past.
Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rays are third in the majors with 103 homers on the year.
Alex Cobb is giving up a bunch of hard contact as well (38.3%) and the Tigers offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Miguel Cabrera is way better than his numbers would suggest, and I think the Tigers offense is going to regress to the mean by scoring a lot of runs in the coming weeks.
These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball. Both are clearly in the bottom five in baseball.
The over is 7-0 in the Rays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 7-0 in Cobb's last 7 during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 26-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-15-17||Orioles v. White Sox OVER 10.5||2-5||Loss||-110||12 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Chris Tillman is an absolute mess right now. It seems very likely that Tillman is still injured.
Tillman has lost 1.6 miles per hour off his fastball from last year. He is throwing a fastball on only 43% of pitches vs. 56% of pitches last year (injury?). Most interesting to me is Tillman's vertical release point changes from last year. Tillman is dropping down his arm significantly, and it isn't working at all. The most common reason for dropping your arm angle is a shoulder injury, and Tillman is coming off a shoulder injury.
David Holmberg isn't a guy I trust at all. Holmberg has never been all that good in the minors, and he is too wild. The Orioles have plenty of pop in their bats and I think they'll put up several on him here.
Both bullpens are no better than mediocre in the past month. The temperature for this one is expected to be 91 degrees with winds out at about 10 mph for this game. The ball should carry really well.
Take the over.
|06-15-17||Mariners v. Twins OVER 9.5||2-6||Loss||-110||11 h 14 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* First things first, the weather here is a big reason why I like this play. The temperature is expected to be 84 degrees with the wind blowing out to center at 16 mph. Target Field has seen 47 overs and 32 unders in the last 79 games when the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph.
Ariel Miranda has been pretty good at home, but on the road he has been a mess. He has a 5.68 ERA on the road this year. Miranda is a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls and the Twins have plenty of guys who can take him deep.
Jose Berrios will be up against a red hot Mariners lineup here. Seattle benefits a lot from Haniger being back in the lineup. Berrios has a BABIP against of only .231 and he's stranding 83% of runners on base. Those are numbers that suggest regression is coming. The Twins bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball right now, and I don't expect Berrios to go any more than 6 innings here.
This has been a high scoring series. I think we see another high scoring affair.
Take the over.
|06-14-17||Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5||2-13||Win||100||19 h 6 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros offense is one of the best in the league. Houston is capable of putting up a big number at any time.
Andrew Cashner has a 5.85 SIERA this year. Cashner still has more walks than strikeouts on the year. Anytime you go this far into the season and have more walks than strikeouts, you aren't very good. Cashner's velocity is the lowest it has been at any point in his career.
Francis Martes starts here for the Astros. Martes hasn't proven anything at any level above Double A. Martes walked nearly 8 batters per every nine innings in Triple A this year. He had a 5.29 ERA and a 5.95 FIP. I don't expect a guy like that to come up and have success quickly in the majors.
Manny Gonzalez is the umpire here and he's one of the best over umpires in the business. The over is 35-15-1 in his last 51 games behind the plate.
Take the over.
|06-14-17||Cubs -108 v. Mets||4-9||Loss||-108||22 h 44 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Chicago Cubs ML* The Chicago Cubs have badly underachieved this season. I think we have reached a point where so many public bettors have been burned by them that the Cubs lines are going to have too much value now.
This is a Cubs team that has flaws right now, but they are fully capable of making a deep playoff run again. I expect them to get hot.
Matt Harvey has been terrible this year. Harvey has a 5.02 ERA and his FIP is 5.87, so it isn't bad luck that has gotten him this year. Harvey's walk rate is the highest of his career and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.
Mike Montgomery isn't great, but he's a lefty who could give the Mets trouble. The Mets have a miserable .298 OBP against lefties this year.
The Cubs have the big bullpen edge. Michael Conforto is doubtful here with a back injury.
Take the Cubs.
|06-14-17||Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||6-7||Loss||-110||18 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Ron Kulpa has been an under machine in his career as an umpire. The under is a whopping 218-160 in his career. That's 58% of games finishing under the posted total when he's behind the dish. That's way too big of a number to ignore.
Whenever Kulpa is behind the dish, if I lean to the under at all, I go ahead and take the under. Jake Odorizzi has some very good career numbers against Toronto's hitters. Francisco Liriano has looked better to me in his last couple starts after coming back from an injury.
The Rays offense has been terrible against lefties this year. The Blue Jays bullpen has quietly been one of the best in baseball in the last month or so.
Take the under here.
|06-14-17||Reds v. Padres -122||2-4||Win||100||14 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Diego Padres aren't a team I'm high on this year, but I have to play them in this one. The Reds are a team I follow closely as I've been a lifelong Reds fan. I've watched Amir Garrett pitch in his last few starts and something is definitely wrong with him. Garrett is having major mechanical issues at a minimum, and I think he has nagging injuries that are a problem. Hitters have been smoking the ball off Garrett of late, and I expect him to be sent back down to Triple A soon.
Jhoulys Chacin has been tremendous at home this year. Chacin has a 1.58 ERA at home on the year, and he has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his 6 home starts this year.
The Reds are an awful 5-19 in their last 24 road games. Cincinnati's bullpen has fallen off badly in the past month.
Take San Diego here.
|06-13-17||Royals v. Giants -112||8-1||Loss||-112||21 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The San Francisco Giants start Ty Blach in this one. Blach has a 1.76 ERA at home this year. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts at home.
Jason Vargas has had a lot of good fortune this year. Vargas is stranding 86.2% of runners on base. That kind of number isn't going to continue for the season. Vargas has been much better at home than on the road in the last couple years.
Blach doesn't rely on strikeouts, rather he relies on inducing weak contact and I think that makes him a tougher matchup for the Royals offense. The Giants have a better bullpen than do the Royals.
Salvador Perez is questionable for Kansas City in this one.
The Giants are better than their record would indicate. I'm low on the Royals.
Take San Francisco.
|06-11-17||White Sox v. Indians UNDER 9||2-4||Win||100||15 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under on Indians/White Sox.*
I am currently traveling and unable provide a full writeup as I normally do. This selection has been researched and analyzed as all of my plays are. Full writeups will be back in a few days. Thanks for understanding and good luck on this selection and all of your plays today.
Start the week off right with a winner! Guaranteed!
|06-10-17||Reds v. Dodgers -1.5||4-5||Loss||-110||21 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5*
Asher Wojciechowski is a guy I'll look to fade for the Reds. He has never had much success in the minors, and now the Reds expect him to have success in the bigs right away. The Dodgers are one of the best in the majors at hitting righties.
Alex Wood has been tremendous all year. The Dodgers also have a big bullpen advantage.
|06-10-17||Oakland Athletics - Game #2 v. Tampa Bay Rays - Game #2 UNDER 8||7-2||Loss||-100||18 h 52 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under on A's/Rays under in 2nd game of Doubleheader*
This is a doubleheader and in many of these we see some of the top players sit. With weaker lineups and one of the top under umpires in the game, Doug Eddings behind the plate, this is a good value on the under.
Take note that this play is on game two with Manaea and Andriese as the starters
|06-09-17||Blue Jays -114 v. Mariners||2-4||Loss||-114||23 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play* on Blue Jays Moneyline. Seattle has dealt with a ton of injuries lately. Toronto started the season injured but they have gotten healthy of late. Toronto has the better starting pitcher here and this is a cheap price.
I am currently traveling and unable provide a full writeup as I normally do. This selection has been researched and analyzed as all of my plays are. Full writeups will be back in a few days. Thanks for understanding and good luck on this selection and all of your plays today.
|06-08-17||Marlins v. Pirates -133||7-1||Loss||-133||24 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pittsburgh Pirates take on Edinson Volquez here. Volquez is coming off that magical no-hitter in his last outing. There's nothing in his profile that suggests he can keep that level up though, and the Marlins have been really bad on the road all year.
The Marlins have lost 6 straight times when Volquez starts for them on the road.
Gerrit Cole has pitched into some bad luck this year, and I see him as a pretty high upside guy. The Pirates have the much better bullpen here as well.
|06-08-17||Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8||1-9||Loss||-105||17 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees Total* The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox square off on Thursday night. The Yankees start Michael Pineda here and the Red Sox start David Price.
Both of these pitchers are somewhat inconsistent, but they have huge strikeout potential. They both have a tendency to give up more home runs than normal, but with cool temperatures and winds blowing in at about 8 to 10 mph at gametime.
In the past five years, the under has cashed at a 59% clip at Yankee Stadium with a temperature of 70 degrees or lower and wind in of 5 mph or more.
Vic Carapazza is one of the best under umpires in baseball, and he's behind the plate here.
Take the under.
|06-08-17||Padres v. Diamondbacks -130||3-15||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Diego Padres are awful against left handed pitching. How bad? The Padres have a miserable .191 batting average against lefties.
Patrick Corbin hasn't been pitching very well, but I think facing this Padres lineup with the roof closed at Chase Field will help him.
The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a left handed starter. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Corbin's last 6 home starts.
I expected a price quite a bit higher than this. Take Arizona.
|06-07-17||Giants v. Brewers OVER 9||3-6||Push||0||22 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson and San Francisco's Ty Blach have both pitched well in recent outings, but long term looks at their stats suggest these guys are no better than mediocre.
Tom Woodring is the umpire here, and he is a very good over umpire. He'll pinch the zone and make things more difficult on the starters here.
The over is 19-10-3 in the Giants road games so far this year. The over is 21-12 in the Brewers 33 home games this year.
Take the over.
|06-06-17||Indians -112 v. Rockies||3-11||Loss||-112||19 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline SMASHER* The Cleveland Indians start Mike Clevinger here, and he has impressed me this year. His fastball has more movement than I expected, and Clevinger is clearly better now than he was last year.
Antonio Senzatela only threw 7 starts above the high single A level, and I think he is a guy who will come back down to earth in the long run. Senzatela isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he isn't as good as he has looked this year. His strikeout rate is very low.
The Rockies are improved, but they aren't as good as their record. The Indians are better than their record.
Cleveland has a big bullpen edge, especially with Ottavino out with an injury for the Rockies.
Taking the AL over the NL in an interleague game is a strong long term angle too.
|06-05-17||Cardinals -128 v. Reds||2-4||Loss||-128||18 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Monday Night MONEY* The St. Louis Cardinals were swept away by the Chicago Cubs, but now they go to take on a struggling Reds team. Cincinnati was in first place for a while, but now they are 25-30 and playing some bad baseball.
The Reds bullpen once ranked as one of the best in the league for a while this year, but they have come back down to earth. Both Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler are questionable for Monday's game as well. Cincinnati is banged up, and the Reds were never as good as their early record.
The Cardinals offense is one of the best in the NL against right handed pitching. Asher Wojciechowski has never fulfillled his potential, and I don't see him as the answer for the Reds. This Cardinals lineup will make him work hard to get outs.
Carlos Martinez is a much improved pitcher, and he gives the Cardinals a clear advantage. The Cardinals are 24-8 in his last 32 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Take St. Louis.
|06-04-17||Pirates +109 v. Mets||11-1||Win||109||12 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Trevor Williams here. Williams is considered a decent prospect. He was bad in his first few starts in the majors, but he has been much better in his last couple starts. He has no walks and nine strikeouts in his last two starts.
Tyler Pill pitched himself into trouble and got out of it nicely in his first start, but everything about his past suggests that Pill isn't very good. In his time in Triple A, Pill was routinely hit very hard. He isn't considered a high end prospect by any means. Pill had a 7.45 ERA in Triple A two years ago. Last year, he had a mediocre 4.02 ERA after being sent down to Double A.
The Pirates own a pretty clear bullpen advantage. In the past 30 days, the Pirates bullpen has been much better. They own a FIP that ranks 7th best in the majors during that time.
The Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 12-5 in their last 17 meetings with the Mets.
Take the Pirates at this plus money price.
|06-03-17||Astros -1.5 v. Rangers||6-5||Loss||-100||17 h 12 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB MAJOR MISMATCH* The Texas Rangers dominated the Houston Astros last year, and Houston's players have talked about how bad they want to exact revenge on them this year. Houston is the much better team this year, and they have several huge advantages in this one.
Lance McCullers Jr. is going to be in the conversation for the AL Cy Young award if he keeps pitching like he has this year. The big key for him has been improving his control. McCullers has elite strikeout stuff, and without putting so many men on base he can be dominant.
Andrew Cashner has walked more guys than he has struck out. Don't let his low ERA fool you. Cashner isn't good. His SIERA is 6.00 and Cashner is going to be rocked in starts to come.
Houston is white hot on offense right now, and I expect them to get to Cashner in a big way. The Astros have a huge bullpen advantage as well.
Houston is a hungry team in this series and they have a lot of momentum (which can be important in baseball with it being such a long season).
Take Houston -1.5.
|06-03-17||Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 9||5-2||Win||100||17 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years. Eddings has been on an over run of late, but this guy is unquestionably a good under umpire. In fact, he is one of the best. Anytime you are getting 2% or more of a difference in called strikes from the average umpire, this is a good under umpire.
David Price wasn't extremely sharp in his first start back, but he wasn't bad either. A key thing I noticed was his velocity was up a good amount from last year. Price has a 2.25 ERA in three starts with Eddings behind home plate. He also has a solid 3.14 ERA in 10 career starts in Baltimore.
Dylan Bundy has changed the way he is pitching this year. Bundy has been getting good results out of his slider. The Red Sox lineup has been really inconsistent this year, and they are without Dustin Pedroia right now.
The wind is set to be blowing in at about 6 mph at gametime for this one. With the wind blowing in and a total of 7.5 or higher, the under is a whopping 126-70 in the last 196 games at Camden Yards.
Take the under.
|06-03-17||Braves v. Reds OVER 9.5||6-5||Win||100||14 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Great American Ballpark has the nickname "Great American Smallpark." While the park doesn't always play extremely small, when the weather heats up, the park is definitely very tough on pitchers.
In the past ten years, when the temperature is 77 degrees or warmer during a game played in Cincinnati, the over is 193-141 (57.7%).
R.A. Dickey has been awful this year. He appears to have stayed around too long in the majors. He isn't fooling anyone right now, and his advanced metrics don't show many signs of things getting better.
Scott Feldman is giving up a lot of line drives, and I suspect he'll give up a lot of homers in the warm weather in Cincinnati this summer.
The Braves have some red hot hitters in their lineup, and the Braves bullpen is bad. The Reds have been better than expected on offense, and the Reds bullpen has fallen off pretty dramatically in recent weeks.
Mark Wegner is one of the better over umpires in baseball and he's behind the plate here.
Take the over.
|06-03-17||Yankees v. Blue Jays -126||7-0||Loss||-126||11 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* In the long run, home teams have done very well in early games on the weekend in Major League Baseball. In a large sample size of more than 2,000 games, betting the home team to win in game played between noon and 3 pm local time brought an ROI of 4.9% and made just over $10,000 for $100 per game bettors.
The Blue Jays are rolling now that they have gotten healthy again. This is a team that was predicted by many to finish ahead of the Yankees before the season started, and I think they do have a higher upside than New York.
Jordan Montgomery is a mediocre lefty at this stage of his career, and the Blue Jays middle of the order has a reputation for bashing left handed pitching.
|06-02-17||Nationals -138 v. A's||13-3||Win||100||20 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals lead the majors in runs scored per game at 5.50. Washington's offense is very capable of going off at any time. Andrew Triggs started the year nicely, but his last couple starts have had some real glaring issues show up. I'm starting to wonder if Triggs is injured in some way. Triggs has lost nearly 3 mph off his fastball in his most recent starts.
Triggs isn't necessarily a hard thrower to start with, but when you start throwing 88 mph fastballs instead of 91 mph fastballs, big leaguers usually make you pay. Triggs has allowed 6 runs in each of his last two starts. He has a 2.64 ERA on the year, but a 4.20 SIERA.
Stephen Strasburg has been locked in of late. Last game, he blew away 15 Padres in 7 innings pitched. Strasburg's velocity is the highest it has been in the past four years, which suggests to me that he is completely healthy this time around.
I hadn't circled this game before the lines came out, but I made this line -155, so I see solid value here. Additionally, a closer look at Triggs make me like the Nationals chances of getting to him.
The Nationals are 22-8 in Strasburg's last 30 road starts.
|06-02-17||Indians +100 v. Royals||0-4||Loss||-100||18 h 22 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Cleveland Indians are much better than their record would indicate. I expect this Indians team to hit their stride soon and take over in a big way atop the American League Central.
The Indians have had some really bad batted ball luck on offense and when on the mound in high leverage situations. This kind of thing evens out over time. The Tribe are getting some much better contributions from Edwin Encarnacion in recent games, and Francisco Lindor is a star. Michael Brantley is looking healthy once again as well, and that's a big help.
Jason Vargas started the season pitching brilliantly, but of late he has slowed down quite a bit. Vargas has a 2.39 ERA on the year, but a 4.42 xFIP and a 4.20 SIERA. Vargas had a game xFIP's of less than 4 in each of his first starts this year. In each of his last 6 starts, his game by game xFIP was 4.54 or worse every single game. He's stranded 84% of runners this year and that isn't sustainable.
Josh Tomlin has held KC batters to a .296 OBP in his career. Vargas has allowed Tribe hitters an OBP of .364. The Indians are 17-4 in Tomlin's last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Even money for the much better team with a huge bullpen advantage? I'll take it.
|06-01-17||Red Sox -117 v. Orioles||5-7||Loss||-117||17 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Eduardo Rodriguez has really impressed me this year. Rodriguez had a 4.71 ERA last year and his ERA is down to 2.77 so far this year. He has been a prized prospect for a long time, and now he is taking that next step.
Two years ago, Rodriguez had a swinging strike rate against of 7.9%. Last year it went up to 10.6% and this year it is 12.0%. The movement on his fastball is much better this year
Rodriguez has a great history against the Orioles. While I don't see pitcher/hitter past matchup results as a good sole reason to make a bet, when they align with my original lean it is very helpful. Rodriguez has held Orioles hitters to a .229 average in a fairly large sample size. Even better is his ERA at Camden Yards is only 1.34. That's in six starts.
Wade Miley is a regression candidate and his hard contact rate is the highest of his career. Opponents haven't been fooled very often by him this year. The Red Sox are without Pedroia, but they still have a very good offense.
The Red Sox have a big bullpen advantage, especially with Britton out for the Orioles.
Boston is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts overall. The Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts at Baltimore. A 20-0 angle.
|05-31-17||A's v. Indians UNDER 9||3-1||Win||100||16 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians are hitting only .236 against lefties so far this year. The Indians are better than that average against lefties, but they have been consistently better against right handed pitching than lefties over the last few years.
Sean Manaea has some excellent stuff, and I expect him to have a lot of success in the majors. Manaea has improved his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA from last year. A horrible strand rate of just 59% means he is due for some positive regression as far as his ERA. Manaea is a young pitcher who has multiple go to swing and miss pitches. His swinging strikes rate is an awesome 13.6%. That's a guy with a high upside. His one problem has been his control, but he'll be helped by a bigger strike zone than normal with Mark Ripperger behind home plate for this one.
Mike Clevinger has developed into a better pitcher than many people expected him to be. Clevinger should have enough weapons to slow down this poor Oakland offense. He has been getting batters to swing at more bad balls this year, and that has brought his swinging strike rate up.
Ripperger is a very good under umpire, and the weather should be good for an under here. The forecast calls for 65 degrees and winds in from center field at about 10 mph.
Take the under.
|05-30-17||Astros v. Twins OVER 9||7-2||Push||0||5 h 39 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The weather and the home plate umpire are two major reasons I'm taking the over in this game. The wind is blowing out to left center field in this game at about 12 mph. The home plate umpire is Sam Holbrook. You won't find a better over umpire than Holbrook.
Holbrook has called the lowest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire so far this year. The over has hit in 56.3% of games called by Holbrook in his career.
Mike Fiers has been awful this year. Fiers has an ERA over 6 on the road this year (it was 4.99 last year too). He has allowed a mind boggling 11 home runs in 24 innings on the road this year. The Twins have enough power with Holbrook squeezing the zone and the wind blowing out to knock a couple out here.
Jose Berrios is looking very good of late, but Houston's offense is as hot as anyone in baseball. The Twins bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, and even if Berrios pitches well the Astros are liable to torch the bullpen like they did yesterday.
Take the over.
|05-30-17||Rays v. Rangers OVER 10||5-9||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* These bullpens both rank in the five worst bullpens in baseball. Tampa Bay's SIERA is actually the single worst of any team. Tampa Bay has spent up their bullpen the last couple nights and they had to call up a guy from the minors to be an extra reliever for this game.
Matt Andriese is a serviceable pitcher, but this Rangers lineup is very good. Adrian Beltre is back in the lineup and that's a big key. Andriese isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game.
I've never been a fan of Nick Martinez. He may be slightly improved this year, but he is still giving up long balls at a high rate. This Tampa Bay team is second in the majors in home runs. They should give him trouble here.
Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire, and he's an excellent over umpire.
The weather is heating up in Texas and the ball will be flying better in this park now.
The over is 24-7-1 in Texas' last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Take the over.
|05-30-17||Brewers v. Mets OVER 9||4-5||Push||0||15 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Manny Gonzalez is one of the very best over umpires in the game. The over is 6-1 in his 7 games behind the plate this year. The over is 84-64 (57% wins) in his career.
Zach Davies is walking too many guys this year, and he is giving up more fly balls and home runs. Davies isn't a bad pitcher, but I do think this Mets offense that has been hot will put several across here.
Tyler Pill starts for the Mets here. Pill is making his big league starting debut. Pill had a 7.60 ERA two years ago in Triple A and a 5.60 ERA last year in Triple A. In five starts this year, he was successful there, but that was due to multiple fortunate factors. I don't think he is likely to be very good for the Mets in general, and this Brewers lineup has a lot of dangerous bats.
The wind is blowing out at 8 mph and at Citi Field all time with the wind blowing out 8 mph or more the over is hitting at a 57% clip.
Take the over.
|05-30-17||Reds v. Blue Jays -1.5||4-6||Win||115||15 h 59 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Toronto Blue Jays start JA Happ here. I think Happ is a slightly above average lefty, and since the Reds aren't all that good against lefties, that should be good enough.
The biggest reason I'm making this play is a fade of Asher Wojciechowski. He simply hasn't proven to be very good in the minors in the past few years. In the last three years, his best ERA in Triple A was 4.74. He has been good in just five starts in the minors this year, but I don't see that being all that predictive of the future.
What about playing on a team that just won huge in their last game? An in depth query I ran showed this to be very successful. Betting the run line on a team that just won their last game by 8 runs or more with the following factors:
-They have won 55% of their games or less
-Their opponent has won 55% or less of their games
-It is a non-divisional game
This yields a 229-228 record and $100 per game bettors are up $8,291 on those plays. It's an ROI of better than 18%.
Take Toronto -1.5.
|05-30-17||Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9||8-3||Loss||-110||15 h 59 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total Value* Bill Miller has been better to me when betting unders than any other umpire in the majors. More than 65% are strikes in games Miller umpires, which is 2% higher than the average umpire. That 2% doesn't sound like much, but trust me that makes a big difference. Miller is a great under umpire.
Chris Tillman has pretty good numbers in his career against the Yankees. He has only allowed one home run against this lineup in his career. Jacoby Ellsbury is out of the lineup and that hurts the Yankees some.
Luis Severino has really impressed me this year. He has taken the next step so far this year. Severino gave up 4 runs at Baltimore earlier this year, but that was due to poor batted ball luck. He has been great on the road overall this year.
The under is 20-8 in Tillman's last 28 home starts.
Take the under.
|05-29-17||Rays v. Rangers -115||10-8||Loss||-115||18 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers are very good on their home field. Martin Perez starts this one, and he wouldn't strike you as a guy you want to back all that often, but he has been good at home at building bankrolls.
Perez is elite at suppressing home runs. Tampa Bay is second in the majors in home runs, and the Rays need to hit home runs to win. Tampa Bay isn't the type of team that will typically string together a bunch of hits.
Erasmo Ramirez closed Sunday's game with a perfect inning and now turns around and starts the next day. Talk about a weird situation. This can't be helpful for a starter to be thrown out of his rhythm. I know Ramirez pitched from the bullpen in the past, but it still is at least somewhat of a negative.
According to their manager, the Rays bullpen has two long guys ready for this one in Whitley and Stanek. Whitley has a 1.31 ERA, but a 5.15 FIP. Stanek has a 2.25 ERA and a 6.39 xFIP. The Rays bullpen in general isn't any good, so they don't have a bullpen advantage over Texas like most teams do.
The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of a week or more. The Rangers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a right handed starter. A 12-0 angle.
|05-29-17||Cubs -1.5 v. Padres||2-5||Loss||-115||15 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* I think we are getting to a place where the Chicago Cubs are being undervalued. The Cubs have been burning money this year (so have the Padres), but the Cubs upside is unquestionably high, and they'll hit their stride sooner rather than later.
Kyle Hendricks starts here and after a poor beginning of the season, he has settled in of late. Hendricks has a great history against San Diego as well. In 5 career starts against the Padres, Hendricks has a dazzling 1.56 ERA.
Jarred Cosart walks more people than he strikes out. That's not a winning formula. Cosart has a SIERA over 6, and I consider him a far below average starting pitcher.
The Cubs are coming off an embarrassing series against the Dodgers, and I think that raises the chances of them being fully invested in this series against the lowly Padres.
The Cubs are 6-0 in Hendricks' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Take the Cubs -1.5.
|05-29-17||Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 9||3-4||Loss||-103||13 h 9 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Arizona Diamondbacks are hitting .273 against right handed pitching this year. They are scoring 5.52 runs per game against right handed pitching. Trevor Williams is worse than the average right handed pitcher right now. Williams has a 5.93 ERA and a 4.89 FIP on the year thus far. He doesn't have good command of many of his pitches, and that leads to a lot of mistakes.
Randall Delgado starts for the Diamondbacks. He's been tried several times as a starter, and it never really worked out. Because they are short on starters with Shelby Miller out with an injury, the DBacks turned to Delgado again. I don't see it working out this time around either. Delgado has a history of wildness in a starting role.
The Pirates offense should improve with Polanco back and Adam Frazier swinging a red hot bat. Andrew McCutchen isn't what he used to be, but he is better than his current numbers suggest.
The over is 5-0-1 in the Pirates last 6. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. The over is 5-0-1 in the Pirates last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Delgado's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. An 18-0 angle.
Take the over.
|05-29-17||Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9||4-5||Push||0||12 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Many people know that the Washington Nationals are excellent against left handed pitching. Washington is first in wOBA against lefties. Who is second? The Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox have a .365 wOBA, which is almost equal to Washington's .368. The White Sox have a .288 batting average against lefties and are averaging 5.88 runs per nine innings off lefties.
The Boston Red Sox stunned me by getting shut out by Christian Bergman yesterday, but this is a good offense. Boston has a .350 OBP vs. lefties and they are averaging 4.54 runs per nine innings off them.
David Price was rocked in Triple A in his rehab starts. Price was very inconsistent last year. He is on a pitch count here as well.
David Holmberg starts for the White Sox, and he isn't big league material as a starter.
The wind is blowing out at 15-20 mph during this one. This has led to better than 55% overs in the past 10 years.
Take the over.
|05-28-17||Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5||Top||4-9||Loss||-115||21 h 8 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* Clayton Kershaw takes the mound against Jon Lester in a terrific pitching matchup to close this series of two of the best teams in the National League.
Blindly betting the under has been a good move when Kershaw is on the mound. The under is 80-58 in Kershaw's 138 starts in the majors. That's a 58% win rate for the under.
Kershaw is baseball's best pitcher, and his consistency is what impresses me the most. He has a 2.18 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Cubs. How has Kershaw done with home plate umpire Dan Iassogna behind the dish? Kershaw has a dazzling 1.17 ERA in five career starts with Iassogna calling the balls and strikes.
Jon Lester is a really good lefty as well. As good as the Dodgers offense is against right handed pitching, the Dodgers struggle against lefties. The Dodgers are hitting .262 against righties and .238 against lefties this year. Lester has a 1.76 ERA in two starts with Iassogna. Lester also has great splits when pitching during the day. At night his ERA is 3.59 and during the day it is 3.12.
These are two excellent bullpens which make me feel better about playing a low under.
Both pitchers are at their best when facing a good team. The under is 28-12-1 in Lester's last 41 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 35-14-2 in Kershaw's last 51 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Kershaw's last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs.
Take the under big.
Top Total of the Week
|05-28-17||Diamondbacks +107 v. Brewers||5-9||Loss||-100||12 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Arizona* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Patrick Corbin here. Corbin is showing some signs of improving again after a bad season last year. Corbin was excellent when he first got up to the majors, but an injury hampered him recently. Corbin is throwing harder than he ever has before, and his swinging strikes rate is up this year. He is also giving up less hard contact.
If you had bet $100 on Patrick Corbin and the Diamondbacks on the road in each of his 49 career road starts you would be 27-22 and up $808.
Jimmy Nelson is a mediocre right handed starter. The Diamondbacks rank first in the national league in offensive production against right handed pitching. They were stymied yesterday, but I expect them to bounce back here.
The Brewers are 5-15 in Nelson's last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
When Nelson starts at home, betting on the road team (against Nelson and the Brewers) has been very profitable. How much so? Overall it is 27-16 (+$831 on a $100 per bet scale). Narrow that down to betting the road team that is between -150 and +115 on the moneyline, and you would be 22-5 (+$1,378).
|05-28-17||Mariners v. Red Sox -1.5||5-0||Loss||-100||12 h 23 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Boston Red Sox start Rick Porcello, who hasn't been good this year on the surface. I don't really like Porcello as a pitcher all that much, but if you look deeper at his statistics you'll see that he is about the same pitcher he was last year. His xFIP and SIERA are actually slightly better this year than they were a year ago. He has had bad batted ball luck this year.
Christian Bergman was absolutely torched for 14 hits and 10 runs in his last start. He had one good start this year and that was against the Oakland A's. This isn't anything close to the A's offense that he'll face on Sunday. Boston's offense is one of the best in the majors. Bergman is very vulnerable to the home run ball, and he's backed by a bullpen that is worn out.
Boston has a big edge offensively. Porcello is the much better starter as well. The bullpen edge for Boston is significant.
Take Boston -1.5.
|05-28-17||Angels +105 v. Marlins||2-9||Loss||-100||12 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Angels* The Los Angeles Angels are a mediocre American League team. Playing on a mediocre AL team against a team from the National League has been a great bankroll building strategy in the last few years. The AL is the better conference again this year, and I'll look to go with that trend once again.
Matt Shoemaker has a very high upside. He is a streaky pitcher who threw a shutout in his last game. Shoemaker always starts slowly and typically rounds into form as we get deeper into the season.
Jose Urena has a terrible statistical profile. He has stranded 81.4% of runners this year so far. That won't continue. Urena has a 3.08 ERA and a 5.64 xFIP. He is getting a swinging strikes rate of only 6.7%. He is due for serious regression.
The Angels bullpen is much better than the Marlins pen as well.
The Marlins are 1-11 in Urena's last 12 home starts.
Take the Angels.
|05-28-17||Rangers v. Blue Jays -1.5||3-1||Loss||-100||12 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Andrew Cashner overperformed his advanced metrics for a long time. Cashner finally allowed five runs in his last start. I think it keeps going. In fact, Cashner's profile suggests he is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. Cashner has a ridiculously bad 6.01 SIERA. His xFIP is 5.58 as well. That is far different than his ERA of 3.18.
Cashner has walked more batters than he has struck out on the season! It hasn't been a fluke either. When you are 7 starts in and have that statistic, you know there is a major problem. Cashner has a swinging strike rate against of less than 6% (terrible).
Joe Biagini has impressed me in his limited time as a starter. Biagini has very good velocity and his slider is an excellent pitch.
The Rangers bullpen is one of the five worst in the majors. The Blue Jays bullpen ranks in the top ten in the majors, and they have been excellent in the past month.
Toronto's lineup is getting healthy and I think they run up a pretty big number here.
Take Toronto -1.5.
|05-27-17||Diamondbacks -129 v. Brewers||1-6||Loss||-129||14 h 1 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zack Greinke here. Greinke ranks in the top ten in the majors among starters in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. He's striking out 10.48 batters per nine innings and walking only 1.61. Greinke goes back to play against his old team here, and I expect him to be sharp.
Chase Anderson is a really streaky pitcher. His last few games show nothing that would make me expect him to have success against this very good Arizona lineup. Anderson has an xFIP of 5.29 or higher in four of his last five starts.
Line drives have the highest hit probability of all batted ball types, and Anderson's line drive allowed rate is 23.8%, which is very high. Anderson has a 1.46 WHIP on the year. He's getting away with it fairly well on the year, but here he is up against an Arizona lineup that has a whopping .345 OBP against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are unlikely to let too many chances pass them by here.
Arizona has the better bullpen and the much better starter. With Ryan Braun out of the lineup, the DBacks have a clear edge offensively as well.
Arizona is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The DBacks are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 starts. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 games. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. A combined 33-0 angle.
|05-27-17||Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5||5-2||Win||100||14 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Danny Salazar is much better than he has shown so far this year. Salazar goes up against a KC offense that is one of the five worst in baseball here, and I see this as a good chance for him to get back on track.
Jason Vargas has been excellent this year. Vargas had one really bad start a couple outings ago, but overall he has been very solid. The Indians rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major statistical categories against left handed pitching.
A key angle here is the weather as well. The wind will be blowing in from center field for this one. Progessive Field is one where the weather makes a big difference.
Here's a great statistic to back this up. With the wind blowing in at least 6 mph (projected to be 10 mph here), and a total of at least 8, the under is 70-25 in the last 95 games played at Progressive Field.
The under is 14-2 in Vargas' last 16 starts.
Take the under here.
|05-26-17||Angels +124 v. Marlins||5-8||Loss||-100||16 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day PERFECTION Angle* The LA Angels go to Miami to take on the Marlins in an interleague series here.
I understand the Angels aren't very good against right handed pitching. They aren't typically a team I'd be looking to back in this situation. What is making me play this one? It's all about price. I would have expected the Angels to be no worse than +100 here, and getting a pretty decent plus money price is too much for me to pass up.
Dan Straily has a 3.70 ERA on the year, but his xFIP is 4.72 and his SIERA is 4.34. Straily isn't a bad pitcher, but he's not all that good either.
Jesse Chavez is a little worse than an average pitcher, but he's backed by the much better bullpen in this one.
What have the Marlins done to deserve being favored like this here? The Marlins are 1-10 in their last 11 home games. The Marlins are 15-36 in their last 51 interleague games.
The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague home games. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or less. The Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 Friday games. A 17-0 angle.
This also nicely fits into an interleague system that has made big money. The system is to play on an American League team that is mediocre (between 47% and 53% win percentage on the year. The total needs to be 7.5 or higher. The opponent win percentage is 34% or higher. How good has it done? It's 517 wins and 331 losses in the last 10 years (61% winners). $100 bettors are up $12,904 playing each of those games that fit this system. The Angels fit this system.
Take the Los Angeles Angels.
|05-25-17||Rockies -110 v. Phillies||1-2||Loss||-110||15 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies are red hot right now. I have cashed with Colorado each of the last two nights, and I'm Colorado in the series finale here as well. Colorado has scored at least 6 runs in each of their last 6 games. This offense is on fire of late.
The Phillies are 4-20 in their last 24 games. The wheels have completely fallen off for this team. Judging by the stories in the media now I have to wonder if the team chemistry is lacking right now also.
Tyler Anderson is definitely better than he has pitched this year. His xFIP is 3.65 while his ERA is above 6. He'll get better as the season goes. The Rockies bullpen is a good one.
The Phillies have the worst bullpen in baseball and Vince Velasquez hasn't been good this year. Velasquez is giving up nearly 2 home runs per nine innings and that is tough when going against a Rockies team with a lot of power. Colorado has even more power now with Trevor Story back in the lineup.
There is rain forecasted in the area here which increases the chance of a bullpen game and that definitely helps Colorado.
The Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 games against a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The Phillies are 0-9 in their last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. A 26-0 angle.