*4 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers have made it clear that they are on a mission this year. Their record was 22-18 after 40 games. Take a look at the standings now, and you'll see that this team is in the middle of a run like we haven't seen in baseball in a long time.

I don't like laying this much juice, but I do feel it is warranted here. Michael Fulmer is a good pitcher, but this Dodgers offense is elite. Fulmer has struggled in his last few starts. His SIERA on the year is now above 4. The Tigers have the worst bullpen in baseball. The Dodgers have one of the top three bullpens in baseball.

Ryu started the season slowly, but he has allowed a total of 3 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. This is certainly a spot where he could get hit some since the Tigers are solid against lefties, but their production against lefties has dipped a good amount since trading away J.D. Martinez.

The Dodgers are an insane 50-9 in their last 59 games. They have many edges in this game. Detroit has nothing to play for either.

Lay it.

Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* Michael Wacha gives the St. Louis Cardinals a starting pitching edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wacha's velocity is up in the last month, and it has made a big difference in his overall results.

Chad Kuhl is too inconsistent for the Pirates. Kuhl has been torched by this Cardinals lineup. The Cardinals have a .349 average against him and a .419 OBP. 

The Cardinals have scored a whopping 8 runs or more in six of their last ten games. This offense is on fire. The Pirates offense is much less consistent, and I like the Cardinals chances if this is another high scoring contest.

Two teams headed in different directions right now.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Play on Arizona ML* Zack Godley has been tremendous this year. Godley has a sparkling 2.95 ERA and a 3.17 FIP on the season. Godley has allowed a total of five runs in his last four starts. He has a 2.72 ERA on the road this season.

Ervin Santana has allowed four runs or more in four of his last five games. He has slowed down quite a bit after a red hot start to the season. He is due for more regression based on his strand rate. 

The Diamondbacks offense has Peralta back and with J.D. Martinez in the middle of the lineup this team is so much better.

The Twins had to play a double header yesterday, which makes me like the DBacks a bit more here. 

Lay the small price with Arizona.

Take the Dbacks. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers -1.5* I have to fade James Shields here. I'm never excited to back Andrew Cashner, but he has done a nice job limiting hard contact in his last few starts. 

For a long time, Cashner was walking way too many guys, but he has just one walk in his last two starts. He faces a White Sox team that doesn't walk, especially against right handed pitching. This White Sox lineup is one of the five worst in the majors against righties. Cashner has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last six starts.

James Shields is terrible. Shields is fade worthy nearly every time out there. His weighted on base average allowed to lefties this year is a ridiculous .444. Shields has allowed 13 home runs to lefties in just 30 innings pitched against them. Overall, he's allowing 2.36 homers per nine innings. Expect some bombs from Texas here.

The White Sox bullpen is dead last in xFIP in the past month. They traded away key bullpen arms, and this bullpen is struggling in a big way now. The Rangers have a rare bullpen advantage.

Take Texas -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Play on Rockies -1.5* The Colorado Rockies offense can pile up the runs in a hurry at Coors Field. They put up 17 runs last night against the Braves.

While the first thought most would have is to fade a team coming off a huge win, it has actually been a very good angle to back the team coming off a blowout win. In the past 10 years, betting the -1.5 line on a team coming off a 10 run or larger win is +5.1% ROI.

Luke Sims isn't good at all right now. Sims is getting hit hard every game, and now he goes to play a day game at Coors Field. Sims has an ERA of nearly 6 and his FIP is 6.31. He is allowing 2.08 homers per nine innings. He had an ERA over 7 in Triple A last season. He is in above his head right now.

Jeff Hoffman has been inconsistent, so I don't have a ton of faith in him, but his upside is much higher than Sims. Hoffman has had several good games at home, and the Braves are without Matt Kemp still. 

Take Colorado -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks have been amazing on offense at home, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA on the road. The under is 33-22 in their road games. 

Charlie Morton is having a breakout season. His swinging strike rate sits at an impressive 10.5% and his FIP and xFIP are actually slightly below his ERA. He hasn't been lucky this year, he has just been good.

Taijuan Walker has been better on the road than at home this year. Walker is a guy with a high upside and the Astros haven't been quite as hot on offense of late.

David Peralta is expected to miss this game for Arizona. Carlos Correa and Evan Gattis are out for the Astros. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Royals let me down with a late inning collapse last night, but I'm back on them here. Danny Duffy is a quality lefty, and as bad as this Oakland offense is in general, they are much worse against left handed pitching. 

How big is the difference in splits for Oakland? The A's are 18th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching because of their power against that handedness. Oakland is 27th in the majors in wOBA against lefties because they don't have that same power against lefties.

The Royals offense has been streaky all year, and they have been excellent for the past few games. Blackburn is a pitch to contact guy who is due for regression.

Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers offense has tailed off in production drastically in the last few weeks. There are a bunch of youngsters who were red hot earlier in the year, but many of them have cooled off a lot recently. 

The Pirates start Gerrit Cole here. Cole has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. He has allowed 3 or less in his last seven starts in a row. Cole has great career numbers against Milwaukee. The Brewers have a .163 batting average against him in 80 at bats. 

Jimmy Nelson is coming off a terrible outing, but overall this year he has been excellent. Nelson will face a Pirates lineup that has disappointed this year. They are also without Polanco here who got injured. Look for Nelson to get back on track.

The under is 20-4 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's offense is severely weakened right now. They traded away a key guy in Yonder Alonso, and Oakland is running out several guys who are hitting around the .200 mark on the season. 

The Royals offense has been streaky all year long, and they have been on fire the last three games. I don't see any reason to believe that Chris Smith will slow them down here. Chris Smith is a veteran minor leaguer who is getting a shot in the majors. The statistics show he isn't good enough.

Smith has a 5.29 ERA and a 6.52 FIP, so he has actually gotten a little lucky so far this year. Smith is giving up 2.38 homers per nine innings. He's backed by a terrible bullpen as well.

Jason Hammel isn't great, but he has pitched better in the last month. He's backed by a bullpen that is throwing the ball well right now. They are well rested also.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Subway Series continues here as Sonny Gray and Jacob Degrom face off. 

Sonny Gray has been racking up the swinging strikes at an amazing rate of late. Gray has been routinely registering better than 15% swinging strikes in recent outings, and that is about as high as you ever see. 

Jacob Degrom has been spectacular in the last couple months. He's getting more strikeouts per nine than he ever has before, and he's giving up less hard contact in the past month as well.

The weather is fairly moderate here which is helpful. Adam Hamari is a good under umpire with his big strike zone.

The Mets offense isn't what it used to be now that they made so many big trades. I think Degrom can at least slow down the Yankees.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Toronto Blue Jays have heated up a bit, and they still have some chance in the AL Wild Card race. It may not be a good one, but the Blue Jays have a pulse. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have been ice cold of late. They have a .264 wOBA in the last 14 days. That is nearly 10 points worse than the second worst offense in the majors in that same time frame. Tampa Bay's offense has come crashing down to earth.

Marco Estrada has had a bad season, but his last three games has been his best stretch of the year. Estrada has gone 7 innings in each of his last three outings. He has allowed just 4 runs in those 21 innings pitched.

Blake Snell puts a ton of guys on base, and Snell is up against a Blue Jays lineup that is definitely better against lefties than righties. Josh Donaldson is heating up and Snell should be pitching himself into trouble often here. 

Too short of a price on the better offense and better bullpen against a subpar starter.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jakob Junis is allowing nearly 2 homers per nine innings this year. Junis is allowing an extremely high rate of hard contact. More than 40% of batted balls hit off him this year have classified as hard hit balls. That is among the highest in the league. Junis has been good in the minors, but he has some refining of his game to do before I trust him in the majors.

Jharel Cotton has been a big disappointment this year. Cotton has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts. He has allowed 2 home runs or more in 5 of his last 8 starts. Cotton is a guy who is struggling with his command inside the zone right now. He's hanging way too many pitches.

The A's bullpen isn't any good now after trading away many key pieces. The Royals middle relief is a weak area, and Junis isn't known for pitching deep into a game.

The Royals are a really streaky offense, and they have been great the last couple games. I think they keep it going here. 

The A's have plenty of left handed power hitters who should give Junis trouble here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale in this one. Amazingly, Sale has thrown a shutout in 5 of his last 7 starts. The guy is rolling right now. The Yankees are great against right handed pitching, but against lefties they rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average. 

Jordan Montgomery was amazing early in the year, and he went through a brief rough stretch. He has been really good again lately with his strikeout rates being through the roof. He's a very talented youngster who should slow the Red Sox down here. Boston is without Dustin Pedroia. 

These are two of the top five bullpens in baseball. That's a big key when you play a low under like this one. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals have won eight straight games. They are suddenly in the middle of the playoff race. 

The youth of this team has led the way. Tommy Pham ripped the team recently for underperforming on offense. The Cardinals have now scored 64 runs in their last 7 games. That's a pretty amazing feat. 

R.A. Dickey is way past his prime, and he's been uncharacteristically struggling with walks in his last few outings. This Cardinals lineup isn't forgiving right now, and I think they'll get to him.

Michael Wacha has always had drastic home/road splits. This year he has a 2.67 ERA at home. Opponents have a weak .283 weighted on base average against Wacha in St. Louis.

The Braves are without a couple key hitters in their lineup, and they have the weaker bullpen as well.

Take the Cardinals -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been ice cold of late. For the past few weeks, they have gone into a slump. The last two days, they have been shutout on consecutive days. First, Carlos Carrasco shut them down on Friday night. Then, Mike Clevinger shut them out on Saturday. Now, they face arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball in Corey Kluber. 

Kluber has 10 strikeouts or more in 10 of his last 11 games. He has walked more than one batter in only two of those 11 starts. That's amazing stuff, and it is why he now owns an amazing 2.43 FIP for the season despite struggling early in the year.

Austin Pruitt is a good young starter who has a bit of a unique delivery. Seeing him the first time should be tough for most teams. He has had a couple real nice starts of late. 

Mark Ripperger is behind the dish and he's a very good under umpire.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Run Line ROUT* The St. Louis Cardinals are on fire of late. This is a team that badly underachieved on the offensive side for a long time this year. No longer. This team lead by youngsters like DeJong and Pham are absolutely tearing it up right now. 

St. Louis has scored 8 runs or more in six straight games. They have a chance to score a bunch again here. Luke Sims throws for the Braves here. He doesn't look ready for the bigs to me. Sims had a 7.56 ERA in Triple A last year. His ERA was 3.75 in Triple A this year, but his FIP was was 4.27 and he has had major control problems. Sims allowed 1.83 home runs (very high) in Triple A the last two years combined. He's allowed three home runs in his first two big league starts. This doesn't sound like a guy who should slow down an offense like the Cardinals.

Carlos Martinez is solid and the Braves lineup is without Matt Kemp and Johan Camargo. The Cardinals bullpen has improved since putting Rosenthal back in the closer role.

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Friday FAST CASH* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here. Pivetta allowed just one hit and one run in his first start against the Mets this year. Pivetta has a 3.89 ERA at home on the season. He strikes out more than one batter per inning, and his minor league stats show upside. 

Pivetta's downside is he allows a lot of fly balls and can give up homers, but the Mets lineup is much weaker now without Duda or Bruce. The Mets offense has overachieved all year and that has led to some inflated totals in their games now. 

Seth Lugo is nothing better than average, but the Phillies are one of the worst offenses in baseball. 

Surprisingly enough, the Phillies bullpen has been really good in the past month. They rank 7th best in the majors in FIP in the past 30 days. They have some youngsters throwing it well. The Mets rank 14th best in FIP in the past month. 

With an umpire behind the plate who I consider an under umpire, I think this one is a full run too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Play on Cardinals ML* The Cardinals have won the first three games in this interleague series against the Royals. These two are heated rivals and there's no doubt the Cardinals will stay plenty motivated to keep their rivals from KC down. 

Kansas City got some really bad news about Salvador Perez being out at least a couple weeks, and they blew a game they should have won last night. It can be hard to bounce back from those kinds of nights.

St. Louis has always been a team that had a much higher upside than they were showing. The Cardinals offense has come to life behind Pham, DeJong, Martinez, Molina, and Carpenter. This is a scary offense to face right now.

Jason Hammel just isn't good enough, and he's a guy who is giving up 3 runs or more every single start. Hammel's velocity is way down, and I don't see him being a guy who slows down these red hot Cardinals bats.

Lance Lynn has always been much better at home than on the road, and that has been the case again this year. Batters are hitting .199 against him at home this season.

Take St. Louis here.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Two very good young pitchers square off on Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati. I think Dinelson Lamet and Luis Castillo both have a very bright future ahead of them.

Lamet is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he has thrown his best baseball in his last couple outings. 

Castillo has faced a bunch of very good lineups this year, but he goes up against one of the worst in baseball here. Castillo can throw it 99 mph with regularity and he has good movement on his fastball.

This is an early get away day game where the lineups are usually a little softer than the normal game.

We have a bit of an under umpire here, and I think the value is good enough to take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners have a significantly better offense than the Oakland A's. Seattle just traded for Oakland's most consistent hitter a couple days ago (Yonder Alonso). The Mariners have a lot to play for now, and the A's are completely out of it. The youth movement is on, and this team will struggle the rest of the way.

Oakland's bullpen was decent earlier this year, but after trades and injuries this is a terrible bullpen. The Mariners bullpen has gotten healthier, and they rank in the top five in bullpen FIP and xFIP in the past 30 days. 

Yovani Gallardo isn't very good, but Jharel Cotton has struggled with command all year and I see his edge over Gallardo being minimal if anything. 

The Mariners have the value at this price.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Doug Eddings calls strikes at a highest rate of any umpire in the league. His strikeout/walk ratio is always among the highest in the majors as well. Anytime he is behind home plate, I at least take a look to the under. A day game that starts at 12:10 pm EST as the ultimate get away spot makes me like it even more. 

Get away day spots usually lead to a couple key players being out of the lineup. That's pretty likely in this one. 

Additionally, the temperature for this one is set to be 75 degrees with a slight breeze in from center field.

I'm not particularly high on Senzatela as a pitcher, but the Indians offense has been inconsistent this year. 

Trevor Bauer has thrown the ball really well two games in a row, and he definitely has a high upside if he can command his pitches well enough. Bauer has a career ERA a full run lower in day games than night games as well.

At 10 with all the factors mentioned above, I definitely like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The  Los Angeles Dodgers send Kenta Maeda to the mound here. Maeda started the season slowly, but he has been dealing of late. Maeda is a master of soft contact. He is giving up a very low 26.8% hard contact rate on the season. Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 22 innings pitched. 

Zack Godley has been tremendous this year. His swinging strike rate of 14.0% is truly mind boggling. This guy is getting hitters to chase at bad pitches on a consistent basis. Godley has pitched back to back shutouts leading into this game. 

Both of these offenses are good, but these pitchers are in good form. Chase Field isn't a great hitters park when the roof is closed as it will be here. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Chicago Cubs are third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Matt Moore isn't a good lefty at all. Despite playing in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors, Moore has a 5.80 ERA on the year. He has allowed 4 runs or more in five straight outings.

Jake Arrieta certainly isn't what he was a couple years ago, but he has been better of late. Arrieta has allowed only 2 runs in each of his last four starts. He has thrown at least six innings in each of those games as well.

The Cubs have the bullpen advantage here. The Cubs clearly have the lineup advantage. The Giants lineup ranks in the bottom three in the majors in all major offensive categories.

Take the Cubs -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are the better rested team despite being on the road here. Kansas City played a double header yesterday, and now they must turn around and play against their rivals from St. Louis.

Many NL teams struggle to have the depth necessary to use another quality bat. The Cardinals aren't one of those teams. This is a deep lineup, and they have a lot of potential in this spot.

Ian Kennedy is a pure fly ball pitcher, and the Cardinals have plenty of guys who can send it deep. Kennedy has been worse at home than on the road this year, and his velocity isn't what it was a few years ago. 

Carlos Martinez hasn't been quite as good of late, but he is a much better pitcher than Ian Kennedy. Martinez has had a good strikeout rate in his last couple starts, and I think he'll be better in this one.

I believe St. Louis is the better team, and this is a fair price.

Take the Cardinals. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels Angels start Ricky Nolasco here. While I'm not all that high on him overall, Nolasco has thrown the ball much better of late. He has allowed one run or less in 4 of his last 7 starts. He's up against an Oakland offense that is subpar here, and this is clearly a pitcher-friendly park.

Sean Manaea hasn't pitched well in his last few starts, but I'm very high on his upside. Manaea faces an Angels lineup that isn't very deep. I think he has a good chance to turn it around here, and his recent struggles have pushed this total upward.

Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and the under is 225-162 (58.1%) in his career behind the plate. He's one of the best under umpires in the game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this one. Miller is my single favorite umpire to play an under with. Miller has a really high strikes called percentage every year. While other umpires vary from year to year, Miller is consistently a very pitcher-friendly umpire. Sunday is a get away day, and Sunday games have stayed under the total at a higher rate than any other day of the week. The under is 41-20 in Miller's last 61 Sunday games behind the dish.

Both of these starters have had issues with walks in their young careers, but Miller should help that quite a bit. He'll give them the corners far more than the average umpire. The Braves offense is inconsistent, and the Marlins are better against lefties than righties.

The wind is blowing in here and I see this total as inflated a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays have the same record this year. 

The perception is that Chris Archer is a much better pitcher than Jimmy Nelson, but the numbers this year don't show that to be the case. Archer deserves a very slight nod because he pitches in the American League, but Nelson's numbers match him almost across the board.

Nelson has a 3.37 ERA, a 3.11 FIP, and a 3.12 xFIP this year. How consistent has he been? Nelson has a game xFIP of 3.32 or lower in nine straight starts. He's upped his strikeouts in a big way and cut down his walks in half.

I see this as a 50/50 game, so if you give me odds this big, I have to take the dog.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are a really powerful offense at home. It can be hard on any pitcher to find their way through this lineup at Coors Field, but it is particularly daunting for a rookie.

Nick Pivetta has been giving up a ton of hard contact, and a lot of fly balls. That's not a recipe for success at Coors Field. Pivetta has allowed soft contact only 15% of the time this year, and his hard contact rate is 37.7%. Only 40% of batted balls have been grounders against him this year. 

Jon Gray can be hard to figure out, but he certainly has high upside. His strikeout rate is improving in recent games, and he's up against a Phillies offense that is the worst in baseball. 

I'll fade Pivetta in this environment and look for a comfortable win or Colorado.

Take Colorado -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has been tremendous of late. Cole has allowed two runs or less in 8 of his last 9 games. That includes a very good start against San Diego in his last outing. 

The Padres are a team that strikes out a lot, and Cole's strikeout numbers have improved quite a bit in recent weeks. I see him having another strong start here.

Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. Lamet has been inconsistent this year, but at times he can flat out dominate. The Pirates lineup has been disappointing this year, and they do strike out at a pretty high rate. Lamet is averaging a whopping 11.71 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

With temperatures falling into the 60's during the game, the ball shouldn't call as well as normal for an August game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rich Hill has been great of late. Hill has allowed a grand total of five runs in his last five outings. Hill has 5 walks and 40 strikeouts in those games. After struggling earlier in the year, he is back to dealing.

The Mets offense didn't put up anything last night, and I don't think they'll score much here. This is an offense that is due to regress to the mean after a lot of good fortunes so far this season.

Seth Lugo is a decent pitcher, and this is still a pretty good pitcher's park. He certainly has to go against a very good lineup here, but I think he'll hold his own at least.

The two bullpens both rank in the top ten in the past month, and the Dodgers are arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

This total is too high. The under is 5-1 in Hill's last 6 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jharel Cotton is really struggling with his command both in and out of the zone in the last couple months. He's walked four guys or more on three occasions in his last seven starts. Cotton has also allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. 

Mike Trout is on fire right now, and he and the Angels offense should get some chances against Cotton and a terrible Oakland bullpen. After the deadline, this A's pen is significantly worse than it was before.

Troy Scribner starts here for the Angels. Scribner had a 4.16 ERA and a 4.73 FIP in Triple A this year, which makes me highly doubt his staying ability in the majors. He has a history of problems with walks. This Oakland offense has some solid power against right handed pitching. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Yu Darvish was rocked in his last outing, but he has elite stuff. I think he starts out with a good outing against a Mets offense that is due for regression to the mean. The Mets have overachieved offensively and their totals have become a bit inflated based on their ridiculous over run for the season.

Not many pitchers have been as locked in as Jacob Degrom of late. Degrom has allowed more than 2 runs in only one of his last nine starts. He has double digit strikeouts in three of his last six starts. He'll face a tough lineup here, but Degrom has allowed only 11 hits in 63 at bats against this Dodgers lineup so far in his career.

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star TGIF Play of Day* The Baltimore Orioles have always been much better at home than on the road. They have had drastic splits in recent years. Kevin Gausman is a pitcher who has extreme splits in his career. Gausman has a 4.99 ERA in his career on the road. His ERA at home in his career is 3.52.

Gausman started the year pitching terribly, but he has always had tons of potential, and he's dealing of late. Gausman's swinging strike rate has jumped through the roof in recent outings. A great sign. He has allowed a grand total of one run in his last three starts combined. This Detroit lineup isn't nearly as strong as it was before with JD Martinez and Avila gone now.

Justin Verlander has pitched well of late, but Baltimore is rolling right now on offense. Also, the Orioles have a massive advantage in the bullpen here, especially with Britton back in the fold.

The Tigers are 0-7 in Verlander's last 7 road starts. The Tigers are 0-7 in Verlander's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 0-4 in Verlander's last 4 vs. Baltimore. The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 24-0 angle.

Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cardinals have won six of their last nine games. They are sneaking up on the Milwaukee Brewers in the standings. St. Louis has one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and they have some young stars who are crushing the ball right now. Tommy Pham, Paul Dejong, and Jose Martinez are all swinging the bat well of late. They still have the solid veterans in Molina and Gyorko also.

Michael Wacha is in good form right now. He's pitched a shutout in three of his last five outings. The Brewers have a lot of youngsters who are slumping of late. 

Matt Garza isn't a guy I trust at all. Garza was due for regression before his stint on the DL, and now he makes his first start back from the DL. That's always risky, and here he is up against a great lineup.

This is a fair price on the better team at this point, and with the better starting pitcher.

Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense has been very good consistently this year. They are up against a journeyman in Vance Worley. Worley had poor numbers in Triple A this year. He couldn't strike hardly anyone out. Why should I expect him to be better in the majors? I don't. 

A.J. Cole has lost velocity on his fastball from a couple years ago. He has some major control issues, and he'll put a lot of guys on base. This Marlins lineup has been very good in recent weeks, and Ozuna is red hot in the middle of the lineup.

Both bullpens are exhausted after they were used up yesterday. I don't think the starters give them quality starts here. This one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is my favorite under umpire in the majors. Miller's strike percentage has been over 65% in four consecutive seasons, which no other umpire has matched. This is a guy that helps the pitchers a bunch.

Robert Stephenson has a high upside, but throwing strikes is a major issue for him. Having a guy like Miller behind the dish should be a huge help for him. The Pirates aren't a patient team either.

Trevor Williams started the season pitching poorly, but his fastball has good movement and he has been pretty solid of late.

Billy Hamilton is questionable with an injury and Zack Cozart is out with an injury. Those are two key pieces in this Reds lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Padres* The San Diego Padres have been really scrappy this year. I'll admit I thought this team would be far worse than they are. It seems their manager has done a great job with team chemistry here, and while other teams are quitting on the season they are playing hard. 

Ervin Santana is still due for regression. His SIERA is more than a full run worse than his ERA. He has stranded a ton of guys on base.

Luis Perdomo is a sinker baller, and this Twins lineup has been really bad of late. Minnesota traded away Kintzler, and this bullpen was bad before he left. The Padres have a huge bullpen edge in this one.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a ridiculous 42-11 in their last 53 games. They actually had a bad series against Atlanta recently and I think the Dodgers will be motivated for this series. 

Additionally, I believe it gives the team clubhouse a nice morale boost when the front office goes out and does as much as this team did to get better at the trade deadline. The Dodgers aren't likely to be flat right now.

Kenta Maeda has pitched significantly better of late. He doesn't pitch deep into the game, but the Dodgers bullpen ranks first in the majors in FIP. The Braves rank in the bottom ten in all major bullpen categories.

Lucas Sims has had trouble with walks in his minor league career and starting in your first big league game against the Dodgers is a very tough task.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Nationals have been excellent on offense all year. Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon have been hitting the cover off the ball. Rendon is elite against lefties, and they face a weak lefty in this one.

Chris O'Grady has been very fortunate so far in the majors. He has stranded 79% of runners and hasn't given up many homers at all despite allowing hard contact and a bunch of fly balls. His minor league stats are nothing special, and I see O'Grady as a ticking time bomb who is going to get hit hard sometime soon.

Max Scherzer has been awesome of late. Scherzer has allowed 1 earned run or less in 9 of his last 12 starts. That's remarkable consistency, and he has nine strikeouts or more in 9 of his last 10 games. 

Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale has 10 strikeouts or more in six of his last eight games. He has nine strikeouts in the other two games in that span. Sale has pitched a shutout in three straight games. He has allowed 1 run or less in six of the team's last eight games. 

Carlos Carrasco is far less consistent than Sale, and there is some chance he gets hit a decent amount. Still, the Red Sox have an inconsistent lineup and Pedroia is banged up (questionable). 

A slight wind blowing in and an under umpire are two nice bonuses for this play. 

The under is 21-8 in Carrasco's last 29 road starts. The under is 5-1 in Sale's last 6.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians are playing much better baseball of late. This team still has a really high ceiling. One of the things that shows you the Indians have another gear is the fact that they have performed at their best against elite teams. They have been great against Houston already this year as an example.

Mike Clevinger isn't a special starting pitcher or anything, but he has turned himself into what looks like a big league average right handed starting pitcher. 

Doug Fister is way worse than an average pitcher at this point. Fister's not getting anyone to swing at bad balls like he did a few years ago, and his control has been terrible. Fister is walking 6.04 batters per nine innings. He's almost walking as many as he is striking out. He has a 7.49 ERA on the year, and his xFIP is 5.92. 

Dustin Pedroia is doubtful for this one with an injury, and he's the main guy who holds this Boston team together. 

The Indians have a slight edge in the bullpen as well.

The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. A 21-0 angle.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Kansas City Royals* I have to do it. I have to fade Ubaldo Jimenez with a red hot Royals team at essentially even money. I have seen money come in on Jimenez and the Orioles today and wondered if someone was sitting out for the Royals. The lineups are out, and the Royals lineup looks good. 

Melky Cabrera is in the lineup for the first time, and he helps their depth quite a bit. With Cain, Cabrera, Hosmer, Perez, and Moustakas the Royals are building a solid middle of the order.

Danny Duffy has walked only three guys since coming back from the disabled list. His improved control has led to good results overall. Duffy has been good at suppressing home runs in his career as well, and that's huge against an Orioles team that relies heavily on homers.

Ubaldo Jimenez isn't any good. He'll throw in an occasional really good start, but 75% of the time he is bad, and I'll take my chances with the better starter and a red hot team.

The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense hasn't been good. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Pirates have scored more than 4 runs only twice in their last 14 games.

Clayton Richard isn't very good, and Pittsburgh should get some shots against him, but this is a very pitcher-friendly park and with the Padres recent over run, this game is inflated by half a run. The Padres bullpen has been solid this year.

Gerrit Cole has been shutting people down of late. Cole has allowed 2 runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Cole has 5 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last four outings. This Padres lineup is still one of the worst in baseball. The Pirates bullpen has been excellent in the past month.

Sunday is the best under day in baseball by a large margin in the past 10 years. With Cole dealing and the Pirates offense struggling, I'll grab the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dinelson Lamet is a guy I think has a high upside. Lamet gives up a bunch of fly balls, which is a great thing when he is pitching at Petco Park. Lamet has had some great starts at home this year, while he has struggled consistently on the road. 

Ivan Nova is a pitch to contact pitcher, and that is fine at a park like this. Nova doesn't walk anyone, and that helps him get by with giving up more hits than an average pitcher. 

Both bullpens have been much better in the past month. 

These two offenses both rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* The weather plays a big role in this selection. Winds blowing in from center field of 15 mph during this game will definitely help the pitchers. 

I also think Sean Newcomb and Jerod Eickhoff are young guys who are a bit undervalued by the markets right now. Both of these guys have some good movement on their offspeed pitches.

The Phillies have been hapless this year against lefties (.292 OBP). The Braves offense has been inconsistent this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been locked in of late. Degrom has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He isn't giving anyone free passes, and Degrom has always had great strikeout stuff. 

The Mets offense is one that I believe has overachieved pretty drastically this year. The over is a whopping 59-30-11 in the Mets games, and at this point I see their totals getting inflated. Gallardo is obviously nothing special now, but I think he can at least limit the Mets.

This is still a pitcher-friendly park and with a very good pitcher in Degrom throwing on one side, a number of 9 here is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* It is scorching hot in Texas right now. The temperature at game time is expected to be 100 degrees. The ball flies extremely well in this park when it is this hot. That's a big factor in this play.

Of course it doesn't hurt to have two bad starting pitchers on the mound either. Chris Tillman has been abysmal all year. Tillman's velocity is down and his walks are way up. Tillman is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings and this isn't a good park to go to for a guy who can't keep the ball in the ballpark. The Rangers hitters have a tremendous .429 on base percentage against Tillman in 128 plate appearances.

Andrew Cashner has been due for regression for a long time. It hasn't come as much as I expected, but I still think it is coming. Cashner is walking 4 guys per nine innings and striking out 4.5 guys per nine innings. That's about as bad as you'll ever see from a big league starter. His SIERA is over 5.5 and he is tightroping his way out of some big innings. 

The Orioles bullpen isn't what it used to be, and the Rangers bullpen is among the worst in baseball. Look for a high scoring contest here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's offense has been dreadful of late. Oakland has scored only 8 runs in their last four games combined. The A's now face the Blue Jays best pitcher in Marcus Stroman. 

Stroman has a career 4.09 ERA in the first half of the season. His career ERA in the second half is a full run better at 3.09. Stroman has his best numbers (3.16 ERA) when the roof is closed and with a chance of rain it is likely the roof will be closed for this one. 

Oakland's Sean Manaea is a tremendous young pitcher. He has some maturing to do, but I think he has a really high upside. Manaea has a 3.82 ERA and a 3.55 FIP on the season. 

The Blue Jays offense isn't elite, and I think this total is pricing them like they are. 

This is a get away day game and some of the key starters will likely be out of the lineup for this one.

The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Blue Jays last 7 home games vs. a road team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The under is 3-0-1 in Stroman's last 4 home starts. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. A 22-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* James Shields is absolutely one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Shields has a 5.79 ERA and a 6.83 FIP on the season. He is a notoriously streaky pitcher, and he is throwing the ball terribly right now. He has 11 walks and 10 strikeouts in his last four starts. He has allowed 6 runs in three of his last five starts. Here is another amazing stat: lefties have an amazing .442 weighted on base average against Shields this year. 

What about the bullpen behind Shields? The White Sox traded away some top bullpen guys recently and this bullpen is no longer a strength. 

Jake Arrieta has been better of late, and he's up against a White Sox team that is bottom five in the majors against right handed pitching. The White Sox walk only 5.7% of the team as a collective lineup against right handed pitching. 

The Cubs are playing better baseball and the White Sox are in for a long rest of the season. This one should get ugly.

Take the Cubs -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Texas -1.5* The Texas Rangers start Yu Darvish here. Darvish is coming off a game where he struck out 12 guys and walked only one. Darvish had been missing fewer bats this year, but I believe he is trending upward now overall. His stuff is electric and it makes sense that many teams want to trade for him.

It's important to note that Miami doesn't see Darvish, and that's an advantage for him. The AL has dominated interleague play the last few years. Also very important to note here: Justin Bour is hurt and the bottom of this Marlins lineup is really weak now. 

Jose Urena continues to give up a lot of fly balls and strand a bunch of runners. This is a tough place for pitchers though and I give the Rangers a real solid shot at knocking him around in this one.

Take Texas -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Wednesday night in a battle of two pitchers who have been throwing the ball extremely well of late. 

Mike Fiers has a superb 2.36 ERA over his last 10 starts. He altered his pitch usage and changed up his arm angle a bit at the beginning of that time. It has worked really well. In the last 2 starts, Fiers has 1 walk and 20 strikeouts. This Phillies lineup is about as bad as it gets, and Fiers is dealing.

Aaron Nola has been excellent of late as well. After a slow start to the year, Nola has allowed 2 runs or less in six straight starts. He has gone 7 innings or more in five of those six starts as well which helps avoid this Phillies bullpen.

Gorman is an umpire who helps the under some and the temperature will be moderate here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox have lost the first two games in this series. I'm not a big "bet a team trying to avoid a sweep" type of handicapper, but if there were ever a good starter to have on the mound trying to help you avoid a sweep it is Chris Sale. 

Sale has 9 walks and 81 strikeouts in his last 8 starts. The guy has a 2.48 ERA and a ridiculous 1.96 FIP. He isn't getting lucky, he has just been tremendous. The Mariners are middle of the pack against lefties.

Andrew Moore has some potential for Seattle, but he isn't missing any bats right now. Moore is striking out an insane low 3.90 batters per nine innings. His ERA is 5.70 and his FIP is actually 6.58. This Red Sox lineup can be very inconsistent, but they have a ton of talent and they should get to a guy like this.

Look for Sale to be excellent here.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 50-50 and in the NL Central race after a really nice run of late. Pittsburgh needs to play well in the next few games to encourage management not to sell at the trade deadline. The team chemistry appears to be very good, and this is a team I'm looking to back.

Pittsburgh starts Jameson Taillon here, and I definitely like this youngster. Taillon has a nice combination that very few youngsters have: he suppresses home runs in a big way, and he minimizes walks. Taillon has a 3.08 ERA and a 3.18 FIP on the year.

Madison Bumgarner's velocity is way down in his two starts since coming back from the disabled list. He's lost a couple miles per hour off the heater and that makes a big difference. Bumgarner has talked about how much discomfort he is still in, and I don't think he's the same guy on the mound right now. 

The Pirates have the better bullpen by a wide margin and they have much more to play for at this point.

The Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 games played in San Francisco. They are 4-0 in Taillon's last 4 vs. the NL West. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Giants are 0-6 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts. A 21-0 angle.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Arizona Diamondbacks lineup is a dangerous one now. Peralta and Pollock are strong at the top of the order, and now Paul Goldschmitt has another very good hitter around him in the form of JD Martinez. Martinez says he believes he will play on Monday night after missing the last few games with a hand injury. 

R.A. Dickey starts here for the Braves, and this Arizona lineup has hit him well in the past. They have a combined .408 on base percentage against him. Dickey is near the end of his career and other than a couple strong starts a couple outings ago, he has been bad this season.

Zack Greinke has a dazzling 2.41 ERA at home this year. Opponents have a ridiculously low .230 on base percentage against him when he pitches at Chase Field this year. After a subpar start by his standards in his last outing, I think he pitches well here. The Braves lineup has a combined .261 OBP against Greinke.

The DBacks have the bullpen edge as well.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB DOG of the Day* The Texas Rangers rank 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Miami ranks 14th in the same category.

The Marlins have several guys who can really crush left handed pitching. Marcell Ozuna has turned into a star, and the top five in this order is very good. Miami's offense is still underrated by most people.

Adam Conley is a really inconsistent pitcher, there's no doubt about that. Conley is capable of throwing it very well and he's capable of getting shelled. Am I betting on this game because of him? No. 

The Marlins have the better bullpen and they are better against lefties and we're getting a significant underdog price.

Martin Perez has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. He is consistently bad. He isn't the type of guy that should be laying -140 to -145 against a decent team. 

The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. Grab the nice price on the dog.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Rick Porcello has been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season in his career. Porcello has a 4.59 ERA in the first half vs. a 3.76 ERA in the second half of the season. 

Porcello is showing some strong signs of turning the corner. He has 0 walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts. With his improved control of late, Porcello has been able to improve his strand rate. This Angels lineup isn't very good. There isn't enough depth here. 

Parker Bridwell has been decent so far this year, and the Red Sox lineup is extremely inconsistent. 

One thing to keep in mind here is we have two teams who have top five bullpens and a high posted total. Vic Carrapazza is the umpire and he's one of the best under umpires in the business. 

The under is 10-0-1 in the Angels last 11 vs. a right hander. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. The under is 7-0-1 in Carrapazza's last 8 Sunday games behind home plate. A 33-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The White Sox rank in the top five in the majors against lefties, and they aren't many lefties in the majors worse than Travis Wood. Wood has a ridiculous 1.84 WHIP so far this year. He has a 6.81 ERA on the season.

Derek Holland isn't any better. Holland has been miserable this year. In 7 of his last 16 starts, he has allowed a whopping six runs or more. When this guy is off his game, he is REALLY off his game. The Royals offense has been streaky and they have now scored 30 runs in their last three games.

A temperature in the low 90's will help the ball fly well here as well. There were six home runs hit in last night's heat in Kansas City.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. It's hard to overstate how good he has been since coming back from an injury on June 1 against Oakland. Kluber hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a single game during that time. He has struck out 10 batters or more in seven of his nine starts since that date. He has a ridiculous 11 walks compared to 94 strikeouts during that span. Kluber has been locked in.

J.A. Happ is a slightly better than average pitcher and the Indians are a little weaker against lefties than right handed pitching. The Indians have a .194 average against Happ in 65 plate appearances. The Blue Jays bullpen has been underrated this year, and they rank in the top ten in all advanced statistical categories. 

Sunday's are good under days in the majors in the long-term. In fact, Sunday is easily the best day to play unders in the past ten years. Games played in Cleveland with a total of 8.5 or higher and with the wind blowing in are 51-16 to the under (76.1%). 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jason Vargas has pitched well for the season as a whole, but there were signs of regression on the way for Vargas. He has had good BABIP luck and good strand rate luck as well. In his last two games, Vargas has been absolutely shelled. 

In this one, Vargas must take on a White Sox offense that ranks among the top three in the majors in offensive production against left handed pitchers. 

Mike Pelfrey isn't any good. I probably don't need to tell you that. Pelfrey doesn't miss bats and he is a guy who is prone to the big inning blowup. He'll face a Royals lineup here that is once again hot. They've been streaky all year long.

Mark Carlson is an umpire that lean towards the over. More importantly here, the game time temperature is set to be 100 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10 mph. You won't find better weather for an over than this.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play on Rays -1.5* The Tampa Bay Rays start Chris Archer here, and he has been excellent this year. He has a swinging strike rate of 13.2% so far this year, which is one of the best in the majors. Archer has developed his secondary pitches a great deal in the past year.

Archer has dominated this Rangers lineup in the past. They have a miserable .206 average and a .268 wOBA against him lifetime. 

The Rangers have the single worst OBP of any team in the majors on the road this year (.289). Texas has way too many guys who strike out a lot, and Archer can rack up the strikeouts.

Andrew Cashner is definitely due for regression and the Rays are a top five offense against right handed pitching. 

The Rays bullpen isn't all that good, but it is definitely better than the Rangers bullpen.

Lay the run line.

Take Tampa Bay -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Royals scored 16 runs in thumping the Detroit Tigers last night. Kansas City has been a really streaky offense this year. The Royals go up against one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in James Shields.

Shields is about as bad as you'll ever see at this point in his career. Shields has allowed 8 walks and struck out only 7 in his last three outings. Shields has a 5.10 ERA, but a whopping 6.82 FIP on the year. Shields has been very fortunate not to have even worse overall numbers. He could get blown up at any point. Shields is allowing a ridiculous 2.34 homers per nine innings.

Ian Kennedy is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he has a 4.32 ERA and a 5.27 FIP on the year. Kennedy is a dangerous guy to count on at this point in his career.

A huge factor here is the gametime temperature of 95 degrees. What about the wind? It is expected to be blowing out at about 15 mph. Those factors with these fly ball pitchers makes this an over I have to play.

With the wind playing blowing out at least 6 mph and a temperature of 90 degrees or higher, the over is 21-9 in the last 30 games at Kauffman Stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is inconsistent, but they have some great potential. Francisco Liriano is dealing with neck discomfort the last few days and is pitching at less than 100 percent. Even at 100 percent, Liriano has been really bad this year. He walks more than 5 guys per nine innings. He puts so many guys on base that he is always walking the tightrope. 

Boston is much better against lefties than righties. The Red Sox have a .275 team batting average and a great .358 OBP against left handers this year. 

Doug Fister has been awful this year. Fister has nearly as many walks as he does strikeouts. He is allowing 1.56 homers per nine innings. His ERA is 6.75 and it isn't a fluke. 

While the Toronto offense has been a disappointment this year, I think they get to Fister in this one.

The wind blowing out and warm temperatures are key. In the past 10 years, with the wind blowing out and a temperature of 80 or higher, the over is cashing at a 62% clip at Fenway Park.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Brewers have been scuffling while the Pirates have heated up. Pittsburgh is winning lately thanks to some tremendous pitching. Both their starters and their bullpen have been amazing. The under is a whopping 22-5-1 in the Pirates last 28 games.

The Brewers offense is struggling a lot right now. Many of the young hitters who were so good for a long time this year are now in a slump. Jimmy Nelson has been pitching great though. Nelson has a whopping 52 strikeouts in his last 8 starts. He has a great track record against Pittsburgh. In 165 plate appearances against Nelson, Pittsburgh hitters have a weak .292 wOBA against him.

Jameson Taillon is a guy I like quite a bit. He doesn't walk many people and he has been great through his career at suppressing homers. 

The early start here is helpful especially since last night's game went into extra innings. Don't be surprised if some key names are out of the lineup.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is a very good under umpire. The under is 9-2 in his games this year and his strikes called percentage is in the top 10% of all umpires.

The under is 5-0 in the Brewers last 5 games. The under is 4-0-2 in Nelson's last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0-1 in Taillon's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh. A 29-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play Oddsmaker ERROR* The Arizona Diamondbacks got a big shot in the arm when they traded for outfielder J.D. Martinez on Tuesday night. Even if he doesn't play here (I would lean toward the fact that he will), I think that trade encourages this Diamondbacks team that the front office is serious about this season. 

On the other side, the Cincinnati Reds are playing their worst baseball of the year. Cincinnati is in a serious tailspin right now. The Reds have lost five straight games, and they have lost all five of those games by 5 runs or more. 

Tim Adleman has been really bad of late. He is giving up 2.14 homers per nine innings this year, and he has walked three guys or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Reds have lost 6 of his last 7 starts by two runs or more. 

Zack Greinke is dialed in of late. Greinke has always done a good job feasting on weaker teams, and the DBacks are 18-3 in his last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Greinke has held the Reds to a very low .282 OBP in 103 plate appearances. 

Two teams headed in different directions. A huge pitching advantage as well. 

Take Arizona -1.5 big. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten Starling Marte back and that makes them a much better team. As they are right now, I believe the Pirates are at least as good of a team as the Brewers. The Pirates are likely to be sellers at the deadline, so they'll probably fall off again late in the season, but right now this is a team playing well.

The Pirates have a big pitching advantage here. Gerrit Cole had a really rough patch in May and early June, but Cole has allowed 2 runs or less in five of his last six starts. In 53 plate appearances, the Brewers have only 5 hits against Cole, so he has completely dominated them in a small sample size. 

Zach Davies hasn't been good all year. Davies' swinging strike rate is way down at 7.1% this year. He has a 5.08 ERA and a 5.05 FIP. Davies has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his last seven outings. The Pirates have crushed Davies in the past too. Pittsburgh's hitters have a .367 average and an amazing .458 OBP against him in 72 plate appearances.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Tampa Bay Rays rank fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They face a very weak right hander in Chris Smith tonight. 

Smith is a 36 year old who is a career minor league guy. He's had a couple stops in the majors, but those have been in relief, and he was never very good there. Smith has an 86 mph fastball. When your fastball is 86 in the bigs, you better have great command and some great secondary pitches. Smith has neither. Look for Tampa Bay to get a lot of scoring chances here. It's important to note that the Oakland bullpen which has been a strength of this team is much weaker after trading Doolittle and Madson.

Blake Snell has walked at least three batters in all but two games he has started this year. It is very hard to walk people at that kind of rate and be productive in the majors. Snell gets himself into too many bad spots. Snell has a poor 4.85 ERA, but his SIERA is 5.56, which suggests he has been fortunate so far this season.

Oakland has been a good over team this year partially because they have committed more errors than any other team in baseball. 

Bill Welke is 34-16 to the over in his last 50 behind home plate as the umpire. He's been a solid over umpire for years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. While it will be a hot one at Coors Field, the wind will be blowing in a bit. More importantly, one of the very best under umpires in baseball is behind the plate. Ron Kulpa has a career 58% under win percentage. In a large sample size, that should tell you a lot about Kulpa. 

What about high totals? The under is 50-20 in Kulpa's last 70 games with a total of 9.5 or higher. That's a little better than 71%. Kulpa will help both of these young pitchers a great deal here.

I'm never excited to play an under at Coors Field, but it is important to keep in mind that the Padres have the worst offense in baseball. Additionally, the Padres bullpen has been really good in the last month. They have some youngsters throwing the ball well right now. 

The Rockies have been a good under team all year as this is a much improved bullpen in Colorado as well.

Dinelson Lamet has high strikeout upside and Antonio Senzatela has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground.

I'll take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Sharp Money Underdog Special* The Philadelphia Phillies are a hard team to back, but I have to back them in tonight's spot. 

Tom Koehler is a terrible starting pitcher. He occasionally has come up with a gem in past years, and maybe he'll do it tonight, but if you look at all his statistics, this is not a guy who should be commanding a -150 price tag. 

The Marlins are 3-15 in Koehler's last 18 starts. Koehler has allowed at least 3 runs in nine straight starts. He is allowing a whopping 2.40 homers per nine innings. His ERA stands at 8.00 and his FIP is 6.70. The guy isn't any good.

Jerod Eickhoff is a better pitcher than Koehler, and he pitched really well in his first game back from the DL last time out. Eickhoff has allowed only one run in his last 11 innings pitched.

The Phillies bullpen is a real trouble spot, so putting part of your bet on the first five Phillies price makes sense to me here.

The sharp money definitely likes this play. While only 47% of the bets are on the Phillies, a whopping 80% of the money is on Philadelphia as an underdog here.

At this price, I'm forced to take the Phillies as we fade Tom Koehler as a big favorite.

Take Philadelphia. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Texas Rangers have taken the first two games of this series. The average bettor definitely overvalues the importance of backing a team when they are trying to avoid a sweep. I've run many data queries on this, and the only time that seems to matter is when the team that is trying to avoid getting swept is much better than the other team. That isn't the case here.

The Royals went on a nice run for a while, but this is a flawed team. The offense ranks 26th out of 30 in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. In this one they face a good righty in Yu Darvish. Darvish has pitched better in the past month, and I expect a solid start here.

Ian Kennedy isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. He doesn't have the same velocity, and it definitely hurts him. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who gives up a decent amount of hard contact. The Rangers have plenty of power and this Texas team is excellent against right handed pitching. Add in the fact that the wind is blowing out with a temperature above 90 degrees and it looks like it could be a tough day for Kennedy.

I'll take the small road favorite here.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Houston Astros have been the best and most consistent team in the majors all year long. Houston is 21-6 in their last 27 games following a loss. The Astros are coming off a loss on Saturday night to the Twins. 

Minnesota has multiple factors suggesting they have been more than a little fortunate this year. They have several pitchers carrying ridiculous BABIP's, and the Twins haven't fared well against good teams. Their schedule gets tougher the rest of the year, and I expect this team to fall off the pace.

The Astros send Mike Fiers to the mound here, and he has been very good in the past couple months. The Astros have arguably the best bullpen in baseball, while the Twins have one of the worst.

Houston has the highest weighted on base average of any team in the majors. This offense is extremely deep and I see them getting to Kyle Gibson early and often here. Gibson is one of the worst starters. Gibson has an ERA nearly a full run worse after the break in his career as a whole, so I don't imagine things will get better for him anytime soon. 

Take Houston -1.5. 

*4 Star Play on Cubs ML* Wade Miley started the year getting extremely fortunate. Regression has hit in a huge way for Miley of late though. Miley has a 4.97 ERA and a 5.04 FIP. He is getting behind in counts consistently, and his stuff isn't good enough to get hitters out in those situations. 

The Cubs have struggled all season against right handed pitching, but they rank in the top five in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Chicago should get a lot of runners on base against a guy like Miley who walks a lot of people and gives up a bunch of hard contact. 

Jake Arrieta has been up and down this year, but he faces his old team here, and I think there is a good chance the "good Jake Arrieta" shows up for this matchup. 

The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs a left handed starter. They are 35-16 in Arrieta's last 51 road starts.

Take the Cubs. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates are playing better baseball of late. The team has started talking about being within the range of being buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline if they can start the second half strong. They are facing a Cardinals team that is in a tailspin right now. 

Mike Matheny seems to be losing this team right now as the chemistry has become a problem for the Cardinals. St. Louis has has a woeful defense all season and it has cost them multiple games. 

Jameson Taillon is a guy I like a lot because he minimizes baserunners very well and he generally works from ahead in the count. 

Lance Lynn is due for some major regression based on his strand rate so far this year, and Lynn is a guy who has had major success at home in his career, but on the road he has been very ordinary.

The Pirates offense has been much better of late with McCutchen and Bell red hot.

The Cardinals are 5-13 in their last 18 road games. They are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. the NL Central. The Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The San Diego Padres bullpen has been a huge surprise this year. If you look at only the past month, the Padres have the single best SIERA of any bullpen in the majors. They are in the top five in all key bullpen numbers in the past month. 

The Phillies bullpen has been really bad for the year, but they actually rank in the top ten in all major categories in the past month as well. Some youngsters have improved of late in the pen for this team. I still don't trust this bullpen a lot, but they are up against a terrible offense in San Diego.

How bad are these offenses? The Phillies have an awful .299 weighted on base average. The Padres are even worse at .293. These are two of the three worst marks in baseball. 

Trevor Cahill has done a great job with his sinker this year. He's getting weak contact and a bunch of ground balls. Eickhoff is a pretty good youngster for the Phillies as well.

In the last game before the break and two bad teams playing- don't be surprised if there are a lot of quick outs as teams are ready to go home for their one break during the season. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals beat the Atlanta Braves in 10 innings last night. These are two bullpens that are among the worst in the majors. Washington has one of the five worst bullpens in baseball. The Braves are one of the bottom ten bullpens in baseball.

Julio Teheran hasn't been right this year. Teheran has pitched a bit better of late, but that was again inferior competition. Now, he'll take on a Nationals lineup that has been tearing the cover off the ball against right handers all year. 

Teheran's walk rate is up drastically from a year ago, and he has been really bad against this Nats lineup in the past. How bad? The Nationals have a .403 OBP and a whopping .445 wOBA (14 home runs) against Teheran.

Stephen Strasburg is obviously very good, but the Braves have given him trouble. They have a good lineup now with Freeman healthy again. Strasburg has allowed a .340 OBP and a .373 wOBA to the Braves. He's been particularly bad against them at home. The over is 36-16-4 in Strasburg's last 56 home starts overall, and he gets great run support in general. 

The temperature in the high 80's helps here as well.

The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the Braves. The over is 4-0-1 in Teheran's last 5 starts vs. the Nationals. The over is 6-0 in home plate umpire Jordan Baker's last 6 games behind the dish. A combined 14-0 trend.

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB Moneyline GAME of the WEEK* The San Francisco Giants are coming off a six game road trip and this is their first game back home. San Francisco has a long history of having trouble in the first game back home after a long road trip. Most recently, they have lost four straight games in that spot. 

Matt Moore starts here for the Giants. Moore has been giving up a tremendous amount of hard contact. His hard hit rate sits at 39.9%, which is among the worst marks in the majors. 

Miami is very good against left handed pitching. The Marlins have a great .336 OBP against lefties this year. The guys in this Marlins lineup have a long history of torching Matt Moore as well. In 85 plate appearances against him, this Marlins lineup has a stellar .372 average and a .404 OBP.

Dan Straily is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and you won't find a better ballpark for extreme fly ball pitchers than AT&T Park in San Francisco. Straily has a decent swinging strike rate, and he is facing a Giants lineup with a miserable .299 OBP against right handed pitching on the season.

The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the NL East. The Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 40% or lower win percentage. They are 4-0 in Straily's last 4 starts. An 18-0 angle.

Take Miami big. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Colorado Rockies should knock Derek Holland all over the place on Friday night at Coors Field. Holland has been awful on the road this year, and you won't get a worse place to pitch than Coors Field. 

Holland has allowed 5 runs or more in four of his last six starts. He's allowed 7 runs or more four times already this year. He has tons of blowup potential, and the Rockies are elite against left handed pitching.  

German Marquez has pretty good stuff, and overall I've been impressed with him this year. The White Sox rank in the bottom five teams in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The White Sox will get their runs here in Coors Field, but I don't see them keeping up with the Rockies against Holland.

Take Colorado -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are on fire of late. This is a deep lineup that has a lot of run producers.

Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a start where he had a no hitter through 8 innings, but remember this is a guy with a FIP, SIERA, and xFIP all above 4.5. He has had several clunkers this year, and this could easily be another.

Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 2.77 ERA, but a FIP and xFIP of 4.19 and 4.30. Also, Gonzalez has a terrible track record against the Braves. This Atlanta lineup has a .384 OBP and a .385 wOBA against him.

The weather is favorable here with winds blowing out at 8 mph. 

Both of these bullpens are completely unreliable. Washington is without Glover now and he was their most reliable guy. Atlanta has no bullpen depth either.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Sharp Money Side* I have to take a chance with the Braves at this price. The implied odds here are less than 40% chance of Atlanta winning, and I think that is too low.

Trea Turner is out for Washington and that's a big loss. Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover are both out from the bullpen, and this bullpen was terrible even before those injuries. 

Freddie Freeman is back in the lineup for Atlanta, and he's the best hitter on this team. Gio Gonzalez has terrible numbers against Atlanta in his career. How bad? The Braves have a .326 average and a .393 OBP against him in 163 plate appearances.

A couple strong betting percentage trends back this play in a big way.

-This year underdogs between +101 and +160 are 98-90 (+17% ROI) when there is reverse line movement and they are receiving 37% or less of the bets. The Braves are getting only 24% of the bets from the public here.

The Braves are getting only 24% and 64% of the money which makes this fit nicely into the sharp play category.  There was a reverse line move on Atlanta at CRIS (very sharp book) and a steam move at Pinnacle (the sharpest book there is).

In the long term, these sharp plays will end up in the plus. We'll take the Braves at a big plus money price.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Boston -1.5* The Boston Red Sox let me down last night in Texas with a poor effort against Texas and Andrew Cashner, but this is a very good offense. Boston had been crushing the baseball for many games in a row before last night. This is a deep lineup that will give most pitchers trouble.

Faria is a good young pitcher for the Rays, but this will be the best lineup he has gone against. The Rays bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen and I see Boston having a real chance to add some runs late in this game.

Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. Sale is averaging 12.38 strikeouts per nine innings. Tampa Bay is averaging the second highest strikeout percentage of any team in the majors against lefties this year. Sale has dominated this lineup in the past and he should again here.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB MAJOR Mismatch* The Houston Astros start Lance McCullers here. McCullers is a tremendous young pitcher with a very high upside. The key to his improvement this year has been his improved control. He's cut his walk rate almost in half from last year. 

McCullers has an elite curveball. It is one of the three or four best curveballs in the majors. Toronto rates as the second worst team in the majors against the curveball (the Padres are the worst). McCullers matches up favorably against this team.

Houston ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Astros are averaging a ridiculous 6.91 runs per game on the road this year. Yes, you read that right. No wonder they are 31-9 on the road. 

Francisco Liriano isn't getting as many swinging strikes as in the past, and Houston strikes out less than any other team against lefties. I think Houston gets to Liriano in a big way here.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Run Line Value* The St. Louis Cardinals have a good offense. This is a team that should punish really bad pitchers. Tom Koehler is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. Koehler has been atrocious on the road in his career, and the Cardinals have a .431 OBP against him in 51 plate appearances. 

Michael Wacha has held the Marlins to a .262 OBP in his career. Wacha is much better at home, and he's backed by a solid bullpen. The Marlins bullpen has been a major weakness throughout the course of the season.

The Marlins are a miserable 3-14 in Koehler's last 17 starts. The Cardinals are 22-8 in Wacha's last 30 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox are on fire right now. Boston has scored 6 runs or more in all of their last six games. They have scored 7 runs or more in each of their last five games. 

The Red Sox are healthy now, and this is one of the deepest lineups in all of baseball. Boston has a couple really streaky hitters in Hanley Ramirez and Jackie Bradley Jr. and both of them are on fire right now. Seeing Andrew Benintendi join the party last night was encouraging for Boston fans as well.

Andrew Cashner is coming off an injury and he isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. Cashner has a SIERA of nearly 6 on the season, and he has walked almost as many guys as he has struck out. He isn't likely to slow this Boston offense, and the Rangers bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.

Doug Fister isn't a strong pitcher at this stage of his career either, but the Boston offense has an advantage over the Texas offense, and the Red Sox bullpen is one of the top five in the majors.

Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall. Texas is 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two. A 25-0 angle.

Take Boston. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston has scored 7 runs or more in each of their last five games. This is a scary lineup when healthy, and they are healthy now.

The Texas Rangers have scored 31 runs in their last five games, so the Rangers offense has been very good of late as well.

This is the time of the year where the ball flies very well in Texas. The heat is really helpful and this is a great hitter-friendly park in July and August. 

Both of these pitchers are guys I would expect to get hit hard here. Andrew Cashner has a SIERA of almost 6, and this Boston offense is likely to torch him. Doug Fister has a career ERA of 8.59 when pitching at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. 

In the Rangers last 9 home games, 7 of those games have finished at 12 runs or higher. Not many of them have had worse pitching matchups. 

We draw a guy who is a decent over umpire here in Bruce Dreckman as well. He rates in the top 30% of over umpires according to my umpire spreadsheet. 

The over is 5-0 in the Rangers last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 22-0 angle.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Corey Kluber has been absolutely dominating hitters of late. Kluber's domination has been mind boggling. He has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last four starts. In that span, he has 46 strikeouts and only 4 walks. You don't get much better than that. 

In this one, Kluber faces a Padres lineup that is worse than any lineup he has faced this year. He should make quick work of this lineup. San Diego strikes out a bunch, and Kluber is clearly on his strikeout game of late. 

Trevor Cahill starts for San Diego and he's been good this year. His advanced statistics suggest his low ERA is no fluke. He does a good job getting soft contact and getting batters to hit the ball on the ground.

The wind is blowing in at 10 mph here, and that's a nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland -1.5* The Oakland A's have been cold lately, but I see this as a great chance for them to bust out of their slump. The A's are always a good team at home because no one can get very excited to go to Oakland to take on a team that isn't very good. This leads to undervalued spots for an Oakland team that isn't good, but they are now more competitive than they were in the past (increased power hitting).

Oakland hits for some good power against right handed pitching. That's good news for this one as James Shields starts against them. Shields has been downright awful the last two years. He has a 3.98 ERA, but his FIP is an astounding 6.27. Shields has a completely unsustainable 86.4% strand rate. Shields is allowing 1.99 homers per nine innings, and these Oakland lefties are in a good spot to go deep here. The A's lineup has a tremendous .401 weighted on base average against Shields. In just 96 plate appearances, they have 8 homers off Shields. 

Daniel Gossett starts here for the A's, and he's a youngster with a pretty high upside. The White Sox are 28th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching and Avisail Garcia is questionable here. He's been the Sox best hitter this year. 

Take Oakland -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* This is a very early start time. These two teams aren't accustomed to this kind of start time, and I think that helps the under. Why? Anything that throws off the body clock is generally good for the under in every sport. I don't think baseball is any different. The players go through the motions in these spots more often than normal and we see quick at bats.

The other main reason for the under here is the lineups are going to look a lot different than normal. Yoenis Cespedes is out with an injury here. Michael Conforto is out with an injury. Granderson is questionable. 

Trea Turner is a big loss for the Nats and I think other Nats may sit here. The Nationals played Sunday night baseball and then traveled late. They played last night and now play an 11 am eastern game. This is a classic sit some starters spot.

Seth Lugo has been pretty good this year and Joe Ross has added a decent changeup to his arsenal in his last few outings. 

Given what the lineups will look like, I think this total is at least a full run too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Monday Night MONEY* The New York Yankees offense is very good, but they are pretty hobbled right now. Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird are all out of the lineup. 

The Toronto Blue Jays lineup has lots of potential, but they have struggled to put it together in key situations this year.

Masahiro Tanaka is an inconsistent pitcher, but he is showing some very positive signs in recent outings. After allowing a rash of homers for a while, Tanaka hasn't allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. He has 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. He has a 5.56 ERA, but his xFIP is 3.90 and Tanaka seems to have improved command inside the zone in his last few starts.

Marcus Stroman has been very good this year. Stroman has an impressive 10.4% swinging strike rate. 

Stroman and Tanaka have both been great against their opponent in this one. The Yankees hitters have a miserable .238 OBP and a .245 weighted on base average against Stroman. The Blue Jays hitters have an even worse .218 OBP and a .233 wOBA against Tanaka.

The wind is blowing in a little here, and we have two very good bullpens.

The under is 9-1 in Tanaka's last 10 vs. Toronto. The under is 5-1 in Stroman's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball Red Hot CASH* Max Scherzer has been absolutely amazing of late. How good? Scherzer has allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 in any of those starts. 

Scherzer has only 8 walks in his last seven starts. In that same span, Scherzer has 75 strikeouts. He is just blowing people away on a consistent basis. 

Carlos Martinez has gotten much better as a starter in the last year. Martinez has developed his secondary pitches nicely, and he is turning into a viable ace for this Cardinals team. 

Both of these offenses are good, but they are both inconsistent. The Nationals will miss Trea Turner at the top of the lineup as well.

St. Louis has struggled with runners in scoring position most of the year, and Scherzer has been able to buckle down in those spots throughout his career.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Alex Cobb has been much better in his last few outings. Cobb has allowed only 5 earned runs in his last four starts combined. Cobb has a FIP of 3.59 or lower in each of those individual games. 

He has induced more soft contact of late, and Cobb is working from ahead in the count. Cobb has been good at limiting homers throughout his career, and that is key to this handicap.

Kevin Gausman has potential, and it won't surprise me if he turns it around in the future, but he has been really bad this year. Gausman has a mind boggling 19 walks in his last six outings. To say he's been putting himself in bad positions frequently is a major understatement. 

Gausman allowed a relatively high 1.4 homers per nine innings last year and is allowing an even higher 1.47 homers per nine innings this year.

Cobb has a stellar 2.00 ERA in nine outings against Baltimore in his career. Cobb also has a 2.93 ERA in day games in his career.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The Philadelphia Phillies aren't a good team, but they are playing much better in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. Philadelphia has won four of their last nine games, and three of their losses in that span were one run losses. 

The New York Mets aren't a very good team, and for them to be laying this kind of price here with Rafael Montero on the mound is too much. Montero had a 7.20 ERA in Triple A last year and a 8.05 ERA in the majors. He's been somewhat better this year, but his walk rate is still extremely high, and that's a major concern for the Mets.

Nick Pivetta dazzled in Triple A earlier this year and he has shown flashes of brilliance at times in the bigs this year. He has been inconsistent, but this Mets offense is overrated right now, and Pivetta certainly stands a chance here.

These odds imply a 40% chance of a Phillies win, and that's too low given the Mets pitching here and the Phillies improved play of late.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Tim Adleman hasn't been sharp at all of late. Adleman has walked 13 batters in his last four starts. He has also allowed 7 home runs in those last four starts. He's been fortunate to not allow even more runs than he has of late. The bottom line though: if you continually walk guys and give up hard contact and the long ball at a high rate, you won't have much success in this league.

While the Cubs haven't been consistent on offense this year, they do have a lot of power and that could be a problem for Adleman on Sunday.

Jake Arrieta has been disappointing this year. Arrieta is struggling to locate his pitches right now. The Reds lineup isn't tremendous, but they are much better than expected and Joey Votto is on fire in the middle of the order right now.

John Tumpane is a tremendous over umpire and he's behind the dish here. Winds out at about 10 mph and 87 degrees in Cincinnati means the ball will fly very well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB UNDERDOG Special* The Tampa Bay Rays are fourth in the majors with 123 home runs this year. Tampa Bay is also fifth in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

Dylan Bundy is a guy I'm not high on right now. Bundy's hard contact percentage is 34.9% this year versus only 28% last year. He's groundball/fly ball rate is only 0.70. Bundy is giving up hard contact and a bunch of fly balls. After allowing zero homers in his first four starts, he's allowed 15 home runs in his last 12 starts. 

The conditions will make home runs much more likely here. It is expected to be 90 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10-12 mph for this game. Tampa Bay is a dangerous opponent for Bundy in these conditions.

I'm not necessarily all that high on Jake Odorizzi, but the Orioles offense is 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Orioles also rank third in the majors in BABIP with RISP, so the Orioles have been very lucky on offense this year. Baltimore is without Chris Davis and J.J. Hardy.

I like the plus money price here.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Alex Wood in this one, and it would be hard to overstate how good he has been this year. Wood has more dominant numbers than Clayton Kershaw this year. Is he better? Of course not. Still, Wood's advanced metrics all suggest his breakout is no fluke.

Wood has a 1.86 ERA and a 2.12 FIP this season. He has a ridiculous swinging strike rate of 12.9%. Only 23.6% of batted balls have been hit hard against him.

There's no reason to expect San Diego to have success here. They are easily the worst team in the majors against lefties with a .218 average and a wOBA that is 13 points lower than the second worst team in the majors.

Clayton Richard has been bombed by the Dodgers in the past. The Dodgers hitters have a .412 OBP in a 68 plate appearances. 

I'm hesitant to lay this kind of juice on the run line in most spots, but the Dodgers are way better in every aspect of the game. I think this one is a comfortable Dodgers win.

Take Los Angeles -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Chris Tillman has been awful of late. How bad? He's allowed five runs or more in six straight starts. If your starter is allowing that many runs, you are in some serious trouble.

Couple that with the fact that the Orioles bullpen has the single worst FIP in the majors in the past 30 days, and you have a dangerous game for Baltimore. Tillman's velocity is down and his mechanics have been terrible so far this year. He has to prove something to me before I can stop wanting to go against him.

Jacob Faria starts for the Rays. He has had a great strikeout/walk ratio through the minors and he now has 29 strikeouts and 5 walks in the majors. He has allowed only 2 homers in four starts. He's a pretty good young pitcher.

The Rays are 5th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Orioles are 19th. The Rays are 7th in overall wOBA in the past month. The Orioles are 22nd. 

I'll back the team with the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much deeper lineup. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres are hitting a miserable .213 against lefties this year. That's easily the worst mark in the league. The Padres have a weighted on base average against lefties of only .277. The second worst mark in the majors is .291. 

Jaime Garcia isn't a great lefty, but he shouldn't have to be great against San Diego to have a good outing here. Garcia has a 4.03 ERA on the year, and he's coming off a bad start, but his soft contact percentage is up this year and overall he's had a decent season.

Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. This is a guy with multiple plus pitches, and he's going to strike out a bunch of batters in his career. Lamet is a perfect fit for this park too. He gives up a lot of fly balls, but that's a big plus at a park like this one.

The Braves rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching, so this is a favorable matchup for Lamet.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins start Kyle Gibson here. Gibson has an awful 6.23 ERA on the year. His FIP is 5.60 and his SIERA is 5.39. Gibson is giving up a ton of hard contact (38.2%). He's walking 4.57 batters per nine innings, and he's allowing 1.52 homers per nine. He's capable of once in a while throwing a gem, but he is usually really bad.

David Price has had a finger injury. Price is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings this year, which is easily the highest of his career. Price has a 4.76 ERA and a 5.70 FIP so far this year. He hasn't been himself, and this Twins lineup has several very good hitters in the middle of the order. 

The weather is a big factor in this play for me. The temperature will be 75 degrees and the winds are blowing out toward left field at 15 mph or higher through this game. When the temperature is 72 degrees or higher and winds are blowing out to center or left at Fenway, the over is 72-41 in the last 113 contests (64% over).

The over is 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts vs. the AL East. The over is a whopping 11-0 in Price's last 11 starts following a quality start in his last outing. A 15-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have been amazing against right handed pitching this year. The Rays are fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching and they are first in the majors in ISO against righties. Tampa Bay faces an average right handed starter here in Ivan Nova. Nova doesn't walk anyone, but he also doesn't strike hardly anyone out (less than six per nine innings this year). 

John Tumpane is the umpire here, and he's one of the better over umpires in baseball. Tumpane has a small strike zone and I think that hurts Tampa Bay's Blake Snell a good amount here. Snell has always had trouble finding the strike zone, and Tumpane won't make it easy on him. Snell has walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in his big league career, and his minor league walk numbers aren't much better.

The over is 5-0 in Snell's last 5 starts. The over is 59-29-2 in the Rays last 90 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 11-2-1 in the Pirates last 14 interleague home games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox are hitting a miserable .245 against right handed pitching this year. The Yankees have been tremendous against righties, but they are hitting an ugly .242 against lefties.

Luis Severino is a good young right hander for the Yankees. Severino has a 3.30 ERA and a 3.17 xFIP. He's backed by a Yankees bullpen that is back intact with Chapman healthy once again. This is clearly one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Jose Quintana pitched into some really bad luck early this year, but he has four good starts in a row. Quintana has proven himself as a good pitcher in the last few seasons, and right now the oddsmakers are still too low on him. The White Sox have one of the top ten bullpens in baseball as well.

The early sharp money is clearly on the under here. I agree and we have a decent umpire in Wolf and moderate weather with light wind here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The New York Yankees aren't playing well right now. They've been especially bad on the road, and against left handed pitching. They are on the road here, and they are against a good lefty in Jose Quintana.

The Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 15th against left handed pitching. 

New York is 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. 

The White Sox start Jose Quintana, and 8 of his last 11 starts have been very good. He was the sharpest he has been all year in his last start. He shut out the Twins and walked none while striking out 9.

Luis Severino is a good right hander for the Yankees, but he has pitched worse in recent games than he did early in the season. The Yankees are 1-8 in Severino's last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

I generally don't take the +1.5 line, but in a game I think should be low scoring and laying minimal juice, I think it has value here. If you want to bet half on the +1.5 and half on the ML, I think that's a good plan as well.

Take the White Sox +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros start Mike Fiers here. Fiers was terrible at the start of the season, but he has been amazing of late. In Fiers' last three starts, he has thrown just over 20 innings, and he has given up only 10 hits during that span. In his last five starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in each outing. 

What's behind Fiers improvement? He is getting more ground balls (giving up less homers obviously) and getting soft contact. His hard contact rate is only 27.9% compared to 35.3% a year ago. 

The A's offense is hitting only .246 against Fiers as a unit. Oakland strikes out a lot and Fiers strikes 7.73 batters per nine innings.

Sean Manaea is a young guy I'm very high on. Manaea has excellent stuff, and as long as he has his control I like his chances of slowing down Houston here. The Astros are hitting only .171 against him in a career 122 plate appearances. 

The under got a reverse line movement trigger at Pinnacle earlier today, and there has been some clear sharp support for the under at the key level of 9.

Take the under.