|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-06-16||Yankees -135 v. White Sox||0-5||Loss||-135||19 h 17 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees offense got going in a big way last night. I've believed all year that the Yankees offense is a little better than they have shown to this point. New York has a lot of guys who have underachieved. They have shown signs of breaking out, and last night was a great performance by them against a solid starter in Rodon.
Miguel Gonzalez isn't a good pitcher. Gonzalez has constantly had a FIP of around 5 over the past few years. He doesn't induce enough swinging strikes, and he is prone to the big inning.
Michael Pineda has pitched much better in his last few starts. Pineda has a 5.24 ERA, but his FIP is 3.84 and his XFIP is 3.27. Pineda has been very consistent of late. His FIP has been 3.17 or lower in each of his last four starts. He is getting more swings and misses than at any other point in his career.
The White Sox offense is scoring 5.34 runs per game against lefties, but only 3.93 against right handed pitching.
New York has a massive edge in the bullpen. Chicago's bullpen ranks dead last in the majors in the past month. Injuries have caught up to the White Sox in the bullpen.
Good price on Pineda and the Yankees. Take New York.
|07-06-16||Marlins v. Mets -1.5||2-4||Win||120||10 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets start Jacob Degrom in this one. While Degrom got off to a bit of a slow start, he has been throwing the ball really well of late. He has a quality start in seven straight outings. He has allowed one run or less in 4 of those 7 outings.
Degrom has a long history of pitching better in the daytime. Degrom has a solid 3.19 ERA at night, and a ridiculously good 1.68 ERA in his career in day games.
The Mets offense has obviously heated up of late as they torched Cubs pitching all weekend long. Justin Nicolino is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Nicolino has allowed 38 hits in his last four starts. He is striking out only 4.15 batters per nine innings, and his swinging strike rate is extremely low.
The Mets have a huge starting pitching edge, and they also have a bullpen advantage. I'll take the value on the run line in this one. Take New York -1.5.
|07-05-16||Orioles v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||4-1||Loss||-100||21 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night MONEYMAKER* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has finally heated up. They underachieved for a long time. Los Angeles has scored 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games. They have only scored less than 4 once in their last seven games. Corey Seager is leading the way for this lineup.
Chris Tillman was never as good as his numbers earlier this year looked. Tillman is a mediocre pitcher and he has slumped in a big way in recent outings. I'll be surprised if the Dodgers don't keep up their recent streak of good hitting with Tillman on the mound for Baltimore.
Kenta Maeda is a good pitcher for the Dodgers, but this Baltimore offense is excellent against right handed pitching. Baltimore averages 5.37 runs per game against right handed pitching. Baltimore has so many power hitters, and I think a home run or two from them here is likely.
The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 interleague road games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-0 in home plate umpire Mike DiMuro's last 8 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle. Take the over.
|07-05-16||Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||5-7||Win||105||19 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank third in weighted on base average against left-handed pitching so far this year. Christian Friedrich is definitely a subpar left-handed pitcher. Friedrich has some solid starts earlier in the year, but he is trending downward in recent outings. I expect him to give up several runs in this one.
The Padres bullpen has been overworked of late, and they have been getting hit hard. Arizona should have plenty of chances to score late as well.
Zach Godley hasn't been a good starter in the big leagues, and he hasn't even pitched well as a starter in the minors. Godley doesn't have enough good pitches to get through the order multiple times consistently.
The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or less. The over is 6-0 in Friedrich's last 6 starts when the Padres opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the over.
|07-05-16||Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8||2-5||Win||100||19 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Dallas Keuchel has been slowly getting his act together of late. Keuchel has always been much better at home, and I expect a good performance from him in this one. Keuchel has had much better control in his last few starts, and that has been key for him.
Taijuan Walker has been good this year, and he has the stuff to breakout in a big way. The Astros lineup was scorching hot for a while, but they appear to be cooling off a bit of late.
Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one, and in my umpires database he has called the second highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the big leagues in the past five years. He is a great under umpire. Miller has a good over record this year, but he is still calling a lot of strikes and ringing up a lot of batters. He's an under guy. If this play loses, it won't be because of Miller.
Look for a low scoring game. Take the under.
|07-04-16||Orioles v. Dodgers -147||5-7||Win||100||20 h 17 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB RED HOT Cash* The Baltimore Orioles have been dominant at home, but they are five games under .500 on the road. Baltimore has a great offense in general, but their offense is much weaker against lefties than right handed pitching. The Orioles are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but only 16th against lefties.
Julio Urias has pitched brilliantly at home in his young career. Urias has received a bunch of hype, and he definitely deserves it, because this kid has great stuff. He is going to have a great career barring injury.
Yovani Gallardo is a shell of his former self. Gallardo relies way too heavily on his slider for my liking, and I see him as a guy to look to fade.
The Dodgers have the second best bullpen ERA in baseball, and the Orioles bullpen has been disappointing of late. Baltimore has a strong back of the bullpen, but the middle relief is awful.
Baltimore is 0-4 in their last 4 road games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 7-0 in their last 7 games after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 27-0 angle. Take Los Angeles.
|07-04-16||A's v. Twins -106||3-1||Loss||-106||13 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Minnesota Twins have won four of their last seven games. They just took two games in a row from the Texas Rangers. Minnesota isn't nearly as bad as they looked early in the year, and their offense has finally hit its stride.
Oakland is a bad team, and Kendall Graveman has never impressed me. The Athletics are 4-9 in Graveman's last 13 road starts. Oakland's defense is the worst in baseball, and that's more important than most people realize.
Ricky Nolasco has pitched into some bad batted ball luck this year. Nolasco has a 5.20 ERA but a FIP of 4.03.
I'll take the Twins at this nice price. Take Minnesota.
|07-04-16||Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5||5-12||Win||120||13 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox got back on track with a 10-5 win over the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. Texas was beaten in Minnesota. Boston has the advantage having been at home on Sunday and getting plenty of rest. They also have the much better pitcher in this game.
Rick Porcello isn't necessarily a great pitcher. He is a guy who you can count on to finish with somewhere in the range of a 4.00 ERA. In the American League, that's not bad. Texas has a great offense against lefties (.287 average), but they have only a .251 average against right handed pitching.
Boston has the best offense in baseball against right handed pitching, and they are facing a weak one in Nick Martinez here. Martinez has a 5.00 ERA on the year thus far, but his FIP is 7.22 and his XFIP is 7.00. Basically, he's been very lucky to not have a higher ERA. Martinez has walked almost twice as many batters as he has struck out this year. That's awful.
Texas isn't as good as their record, and Martinez is a bad pitcher. Take Boston -1.5.
|07-03-16||Pirates v. A's OVER 8.5||6-3||Win||100||16 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Oakland Athletics have scored 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The first two games of this series against Pittsburgh are the games that they haven't scored those 6 runs. I think they have a real chance to get back to scoring runs again in this one.
Francisco Liriano has been terrible in general this year, and he has been especially bad on the road. Liriano has a 5.33 ERA overall this year and a 5.46 FIP, so it isn't bad luck that is getting him this season. Liriano has a horrible 6.98 ERA in seven road starts this year.
Oakland is much better against lefties than right handed pitchers. The A's average 4.82 runs per game against lefties on the year. Josh Reddick is back in the lineup for Oakland, and he got on base every time he came to the plate last night. He is a big key to the offense in Oakland.
Pittsburgh will face rookie Daniel Mengden here. Mengden has good numbers, but he hasn't faced great offenses thus far. Mengden is still raw and this Pirates lineup is underrated.
Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and he ranks 82nd out of 88 umpires in strikes called in the past five years. Less strikes called is obviously a great thing for the over.
The over is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 Sunday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after their opponent scores 2 runs or less. The over is 4-0 in Liriano's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 8-1-1 in the A's last 10 games. A 26-1 angle. Take the over.
|07-03-16||White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5||4-1||Win||100||15 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jose Quintana has been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball the last couple years. Quintana had a 3.32 ERA in 2014. He had a 3.36 ERA last year. He has a 3.18 ERA so far this year. He's just a rock solid lefty.
Quintana has great control and typically keeps the ball in the ballpark very well. That's important since Houston is a power hitting team. Quintana's strikeout rate is the best of his career right now as well. Houston has a .248 average against right handed pitchers and only a .227 average against lefties.
The White Sox offense has been a big disappointment of late. Chicago will go up against Collin McHugh here. McHugh has allowed only 5 runs in his last three starts.
The White Sox bullpen is bad, but Quintana generally pitches deep into the game. The Astros bullpen is one of the best in baseball.
The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in Quintana's last 5 starts after the White Sox allowed 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 games after the White Sox opponent scored 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 Sunday games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after their opponent scores 5 runs or more. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 after Houston gives up 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in McHugh's last 4 Sunday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 5 days rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-03-16||Angels +104 v. Red Sox||5-10||Loss||-100||12 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Los Angeles Angels put up 21 runs yesterday against Boston. Yes, you read that correctly. C.J. Cron led the way by going 6 for 6 with 2 home runs.
I don't like to make a habit of betting on teams that just had a massive offensive explosion the day before, but with Sean O'Sullivan on the hill for Boston here, I have to back the Angels.
I have no idea how O'Sullivan got back into the majors. He has proven time and time again to not be able to get big league hitters out. The Angels got a lot of confidence out of yesterday's game, and I see them coming back with another strong offensive performance (not like yesterday's of course).
Matt Shoemaker has been excellent of late. Since finding a mechanical flaw and fixing it, Shoemaker has been lights out. In his last 8 games, he only has one game with an XFIP over 4 (and that was 4.07). Shoemaker is pitching great right now, and the Boston offense has been much weaker in the past couple weeks.
The Angels are 12-5 in their last 17 games at Fenway Park. Take the Angels.
|07-02-16||Pirates +159 v. A's||4-2||Win||159||21 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Super Saturday VALUE Play* The Pittsburgh Pirates have a better team than the Oakland Athletics. Pittsburgh certainly has the better offense by a large margin. Pittsburgh has underachieved so far on the year, and I believe they can improve if this team stays together the rest of the season.
Oakland has a low ceiling. The Athletics aren't any good. Oakland is just 17-24 at home, and yet they are -170 in this game. Does that make any sense at all? Rich Hill has been good for Oakland this year, but this line is priced like one of the best pitchers in baseball is throwing for Oakland in this one. Remember also, Hill is coming off an injury and is unlikely to get past more than 5 innings or so in this game. The Athletics bullpen is middle of the road this year.
Chad Kuhl pitched well in his first start. This isn't really a play on him though, it's just a play on a price that is simply too high to pass up.
The Pirates are 26-11 in their last 37 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Pittsburgh.
|07-02-16||Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8||0-3||Loss||-110||15 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* It's hard to be any worse against a team than Jimmy Nelson has been against the St. Louis Cardinals. Nelson has a miserable 9.51 ERA against the Cardinals in 6 career appearances. When pitching in St. Louis, his ERA is an even worse 11.81.
This Cardinals offense is tremendous against right handed pitching, and Nelson is just the type of guy that they could blast in a big way. St. Louis should put up quite a few runs in this one.
Adam Wainwright has been a bit better of late, but he still isn't what he was in the past.
Barber is the home plate umpire in this one and he ranks in the bottom five in terms of strikes called so far this year, which means he is a very good guy to have behind the dish if you are betting an over.
The over is 5-0 in Nelson's last 5 starts vs. the Cardinals. Take the over.
|07-02-16||Tigers -122 v. Rays||3-2||Win||100||14 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have been absolutely crushing the baseball of late. Detroit underachieved offensively in a big way early in the season, but they are making up for it now. The Tigers have scored 10 runs in three straight games. They have scored 37 runs in their last four games overall.
Blake Snell has been wild in his first few games in the majors. Snell has a high upside, but I'm not sure he is ready for the majors quite yet. Detroit's lineup is great against lefties, because they can stack up all kinds of right handed bats. Snell hasn't faced a lineup this good yet, and I don't see him faring well against them.
Justin Verlander had a rough outing in his last game, but he has a great 2.70 ERA in seven career starts at Tampa Bay. The Rays are terrible against right handed pitching (7-19 in their last 26 vs. a right handed pitcher). Tampa Bay is badly banged up with injuries, and that will help Verlander here.
The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. They are 4-0 in their last 4 overall. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a lefty. They are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. The Rays are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. They are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first two games of the series. The Tigers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 46-0 angle. Take Detroit.
|07-01-16||Pirates v. A's OVER 8||7-3||Win||102||22 h 35 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Friday 100% Total PERFECTION* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense is a pretty good one. Pittsburgh is one of the rare National League teams that can go into an American League park and have plenty of hitting depth to be able to get a good designated hitter into the lineup.
Oakland's offense is much better with Josh Reddick healthy again. Reddick is the key to this lineup. Oakland's offense has been scorching hot of late. The Athletics haven't scored less than 6 runs in any of their last seven games.
Jeff Locke is on the mound for the Pirates and he is awful, especially on the road. Locke doesn't miss enough bats, and he puts too many guys on base. He's constantly pitching out of trouble. Locke is coming off a couple good starts at home, and I think that has helped keep this total low. It is important to remember that Locke had a 5.63 road ERA last year and his road ERA this year is 7.36.
Sonny Gray has been somewhat better his last couple starts, but he faces a good Pittsburgh lineup here, and I'm still not sure his issues from earlier in the year are completely behind him.
The Pirates bullpen is one of the five worst in baseball and the A's bullpen is middle of the road.
The over is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in Locke's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts after the team allowed 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in the A's last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0-1 in the A's last 8 games overall. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games. The over is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. A 45-0 angle. Take the over.
|07-01-16||White Sox v. Astros -1.5||0-5||Win||125||7 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Houston Astros start Mike Fiers in this one. Fiers has been much better when pitching at home than on the road. How big is the difference? So far this year, Fiers' opponents have a .400 weighted on base average on the road. At home, it is only .297. Those splits are about as big as you will ever see from anyone. In 12 career starts in Houston, Fiers has a 2.66 ERA.
Miguel Gonzalez isn't a good pitcher. Gonzalez was crushed by Toronto in his last game, and now he faces a red hot Houston lineup. Jose Altuve is scorching hot, and George Springer and Carlos Correa have really picked up their production level in the past few weeks.
Chicago's bullpen has been the single worst in the majors in the past month, while Houston ranks as the third best.
Fiers is a better pitcher than Gonzalez. Houston has the better offense. Houston has the much better bullpen. At this nice plus money price, I'm taking Houston -1.5.
|06-29-16||Astros -138 v. Angels||10-4||Win||100||15 h 50 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros are playing some great baseball right now. This team was always better than their record to start the season. Houston has some nice pieces, and now things are clicking. Carlos Correa and George Springer are starting to hit much better, and Jose Altuve has been great all year. This is a great young nucleus.
Dallas Keuchel started the season slowly, but his control has improved in recent outings. Less working from behind in the count has been key for Keuchel. He has a 2.73 ERA in his last 3 starts in Anaheim. The Angels offense has been streaky all year, and they have slowed down of late again.
Jered Weaver just isn't good anymore. Weaver has a 5.24 ERA and his FIP and XFIP are higher than that. If anything, he has had good luck so far this year. Weaver has tried to be crafty, but with an 80 mph fastball it is very difficult to get out big leaguers.
The Astros have one of the top three bullpens in baseball, while the Angels have one of the worst three bullpens in the majors.
Houston is 9-0 in their last 9 Wednesday games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a lefty. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. They are 0-8 in Weaver's last 8 starts after their opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The Astros are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. A 42-0 angle. Take Houston.
|06-29-16||Blue Jays -125 v. Rockies||5-3||Win||100||15 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Afternoon Bookie BEATDOWN* The Colorado Rockies have some key injuries right now. Colorado's middle infield is banged up in a big way. Trevor Story and DJ LeMahieu are both injured and questionable for this game. They are clearly a big part of this team. Carlos Gonzalez is less than 100 percent as well.
Toronto is getting healthier, and the Blue Jays definitely have the better offense here. The Blue Jays have Troy Tulowitzki back in the fold, and he keyed a big inning yesterday. Toronto should score a lot of runs in this one. Tyler Anderson starts for Colorado, and he's a youngster who has looked shaky at Coors Field. The Blue Jays are great against lefties, and this is a tough spot for him.
Aaron Sanchez has been much improved this year. Sanchez has a banged up Rockies lineup to work through, and while he'll certainly give up some, I expect him to have a decent amount of success in this game.
Good price on the road team. Take Toronto.
|06-29-16||Marlins v. Tigers OVER 9.5||3-10||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers can put up runs in a hurry. Last night was a great example of that. They scored 7 runs in the fifth inning en route to a 7-5 win over Miami. The Tigers have a lot of guys who can beat you, and this is a tough lineup for any pitcher to work through.
Tom Koehler is a guy I like to fade when I can. I expect him to struggle here. His ERA in day games is 4.52 (3.89 at night). His road ERA is 4.49 in his career. This is one of the best offenses he has ever faced, especially since he doesn't get to face a pitcher in this game.
Daniel Norris has a lot of potential, but he has yet to realize it. The Marlins are an underrated offense, and they are especially good against left handed pitching. It would be a surprise if Norris is able to shut this offense down.
Neither bullpen is particularly strong and we have a day game with the wind blowing out here. The umpire in this one is an over umpire as well.
Take the over.
|06-28-16||Orioles v. Padres OVER 8.5||11-7||Win||100||17 h 24 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* These two teams met in Baltimore last week with the same pitching matchup and the total was 10.5. San Diego is a pitcher's park, but it isn't worth two runs on the line.
Erik Johnson is about as bad as any starter you'll see in the majors. Johnson has an ERA above 8 and his FIP is above 8 as well. This Orioles lineup has been on fire, and I don't see him slowing them down.
Ubaldo Jimenez has an ERA over 10 in his last three road starts. Jimenez allowed only 2 runs against the Padres last time, but getting a second look at him in this short period should help San Diego. The Padres offense has been good of late.
The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 home games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0-2 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. A 27-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-28-16||Astros v. Angels OVER 8.5||7-1||Loss||-115||9 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* I like this pitching matchup for the over, and I also like the umpire we drew. Sam Holbrook has been a great long term over umpire. While he has had some unders of late, his strike percentage tells me he is still a good guy to have behind the plate when you have an over bet.
Tim Lincecum isn't likely to pitch deep into the game, and I don't trust him to be able to get an improving Astros offense out. The Angels bullpen is terrible.
Feldman has always been a fade guy for me, and the Angels offense is hitting well of late.
Take the over.
|06-28-16||Cardinals +108 v. Royals||8-4||Win||108||4 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* I was strongly considering the St. Louis Cardinals before the lineups were even released, and after I see the lineup that Kansas City has tonight, I have to take the Cardinals.
Kansas City is playing a bunch of backups. Drew Butera is in for Salvador Perez which is a big step down for the Royals. Gordon is also out. The Royals have their weakest possible lineup.
Michael Wacha hasn't been great this year, but he has been much better than Yordano Ventura. Ventura is also on an odd schedule here since he was suspended. That's difficult when you are accustomed to pitching on 4 or 5 days of rest.
The Cardinals lineup is tremendous against right handed pitching.
Take St. Louis.
|06-28-16||Marlins v. Tigers OVER 9.5||5-7||Win||100||16 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Marlins offense has been hitting the ball well. There are several underrated hitters in this lineup, and they have a nice future ahead of them. Miami is likely to put up quite a few runs against Mike Pelfrey in this one.
Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all to start with, and in this one he'll be pitching on 3 days of rest. That's a negative in my book. Pelfrey puts way too many guys on base.
Adam Conley has been up and down this year, and in this one he'll be up against one of the best offenses in baseball. Unlike most teams in the majors, Detroit can stack a lineup with some great right handed bats all together. This should be a tough outing for him.
The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games on the road. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 interleague games vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in Pelfrey's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when his opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-28-16||Red Sox -104 v. Rays||8-2||Win||100||16 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Boston Red Sox were embarrassed by Tampa Bay last night. Eduardo Rodriguez was absolutely blasted by a terrible Tampa Bay lineup. Tampa Bay does have good numbers on the season against lefties though. The Rays have a .272 average against lefties on the year. They have a miserable .225 average against right handed pitching. For comparison, Boston has a .288 average against right handed pitching.
Porcello generally gives his team a chance to win, and he's facing a very weak lineup here. Chris Archer hasn't been himself so far this year, and he has a tough lineup to face here. Archer has a career 5.64 ERA against Boston.
Tampa Bay's bullpen has been bad of late, and Boston has a solid bullpen. This price is very affordable. Take Boston.
|06-27-16||Phillies v. Diamondbacks -130||8-0||Loss||-130||19 h 10 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Arizona Diamondbacks have been bad at home so far this year, but I think this is a good chance for them to keep their recent momentum going. They come home to host a bad Philadelphia Phillies team.
After a red hot start, Philadelphia has come crashing down to earth. The Phillies offense is bad in general, but they are terrible against left handed pitching. The Phillies are averaging only 3.06 runs per game with a .222 batting average against left handed pitching so far this season.
Robbie Ray is a mediocre lefty, but I think that should be good enough against this Phillies team. Velasquez comes back from the DL, and he shouldn't pitch deep into the game here. I rate the DBacks as having the better bullpen here as well.
The Phillies are 3-11 in their last 14 road games. Take Arizona.
|06-27-16||Rangers v. Yankees -126||9-6||Loss||-126||17 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Texas Rangers are 49-27, but I believe the Rangers are getting a little overvalued now. They have been the underdog that constantly hits of late, but I think regression is coming to them as a team. Texas just isn't this good. The rotation isn't good, and they have a bunch of guys pitching way over their head.
Chi Chi Gonzalez comes up to make a start here. Gonzalez walked more batters than he struck out last year. He had some ridiculous batted ball luck which made his numbers look good. Gonzalez has a 5.04 ERA in Triple A on the year this season. He just isn't good.
Ivan Nova isn't a bet on pitcher for me, but the Yankees have the much better bullpen here, and they also have an offense that I believe is better than they have shown in recent games.
71% of the public bets are on the Rangers thus far, and the line is moving toward New York. Take the Yankees.
|06-27-16||Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7||4-11||Loss||-100||18 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense has been good this year against left handed pitching, but they are only mediocre against right handed pitching. Washington will be up against Noah Syndergaard and the Mets in this one.
Syndergaard has been the second most dominant pitcher in baseball this year. He had a brief scare with his elbow, but everything has sounded good coming from the beat writers for the team. The Nationals have a .216 average against Syndergaard all-time.
Joe Ross is a solid starter who should fare well against this Mets lineup that is struggling badly. New York has all sorts of injuries and this offense is really struggling to put together big innings of late.
The under is 12-3-1 in Ross' last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-2 in the Mets last 9 games. Take the under.
|06-26-16||Cardinals v. Mariners -114||11-6||Loss||-114||15 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals are very good against right handed pitching, but they are 26th in the majors when it comes to weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals are unlikely to be able to hit James Paxton very well here. Paxton is racking up the swinging strikes this year, and all his advanced metrics look very good.
Jaime Garcia has been hit hard of late. Garcia has allowed 27 hits in his last three starts. The Mariners have been good against lefties in the past few weeks, and I think this Seattle offense is a little underrated in general.
The price here is affordable since the Mariners are going for the sweep and many like to play the avoid the sweep angle. Seattle has the better pitcher and is at home. This is a short price to lay.
The Cardinals are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games. They are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. the AL West. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. They are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. A 28-0 angle. Take Seattle.
|06-26-16||Phillies v. Giants -1.5||7-8||Loss||-114||13 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Philadelphia Phillies came from behind to beat Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants last night. That makes me like this play a little bit more. The Giants should be focused on this game a little more thanks to that showing.
Johnny Cueto has an ERA of 2.54 in his career in day games. He has always been at his best during the daytime. The Phillies offense is arguably the worst offense in the majors. Philadelphia isn't likely to have much success at all here.
Aaron Nola is a guy with a lot of upside, but he has some major problems right now. He's been getting absolutely crushed his last few games. Nola's swinging strike right has plummeted, and opponents are regularly making hard contact.
Buster Posey sat on Friday so I expect him to play. Lay it with San Francisco -1.5 here.
|06-26-16||Rays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5||5-12||Loss||-117||10 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays played a doubleheader yesterday in the heat. That had to take more out of these teams. That's especially concerning for the Rays, who have gone through nearly everyone on their roster to find someone who can play the outfield with their injury issues.
Tyler Wilson isn't a very good pitcher, but Tampa Bay hasn't been scoring much against anyone of late. The Rays lineup is a mess, and they are much worse against right handed pitchers than lefties.
Drew Smyly is a talented lefty, and Baltimore isn't even close to as good against lefties as righties. Baltimore is 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties at .311. The Orioles are third at .344 against righties.
Smyly also has an amazing track record in Baltimore. In 22 innings pitched, he has a 0.82 ERA.
Adam Hamari is the umpire here, and he is a strike caller. This guy ranks in the top 5 umpires in the majors in strikes called since he arrived in the big leagues.
The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a lefty. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. A 15-1 angle. Take the under.
|06-25-16||Mets v. Braves UNDER 7||1-0||Win||100||19 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets played a rare higher scoring meeting last night, but I think things calm back down to the normal lower scoring games we are accustomed to seeing from them in this contest.
Jacob Degrom started the season slowly, but he has gotten much better in recent outings. Degrom has held Braves batters to a .227 average in his career, and Atlanta's offense is just dreadful this season.
Julio Teheran just threw a complete game one hit shutout against the Mets this past weekend. That isn't necessarily that odd for him against the Mets though. Teheran has held Mets hitters to a ridiculously low .165 batting average in his career.
I expect both starters to pitch deep into this game and save up the bullpens.
The under is 4-0 in the Mets last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Degrom's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. The under is 4-0 in the Braves last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Teheran's last 4 on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. A 29-0 angle. Take the under.
|06-25-16||Padres -105 v. Reds||3-0||Win||100||16 h 21 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres are definitely playing better baseball of late. They have been especially strong offensively against left handed pitching. For the year, San Diego is 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. In the last 30 days, the Padres rank 6th in the majors in overall wOBA. They are swinging hot bats right now, and I don't think Brandon Finnegan will slow them down.
Finnegan is due for some regression as he has had some batted ball luck this year. The Padres have been getting some good hard contact against lefties of late, and I see that continuing here.
Drew Pomeranz is definitely the pitcher I trust more from these two, and he has had a very nice season.
The Padres bullpen isn't great, but it's much better than the Reds bullpen.
The Reds are 2-10 in Finnegan's last 12 starts. The Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a left handed starter. Take San Diego.
|06-25-16||Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins||6-9||Loss||-104||13 h 2 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Chicago Cubs haven't been as good in recent weeks, but this is still a total mismatch. Anthony Rizzo is expected to be back for this game, and that is important. John Lackey has been solid all year, and the Marlins offense is better against lefties.
The key to this bet for me though is Paul Clemens. Clemens has been terrible throughout his career, and I see no reason to trust him in this spot. He had a 6.00 ERA in Triple A with the Phillies last year and a 4.30 ERA in Triple with the Marlins this year. If you can't get minor league hitters out, how can I expect you to get the Cubs lineup out?
Look for Lackey and the Cubs to win this one handily. Take Chicago -1.5.
|06-25-16||Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 9.5||10-8||Win||110||12 h 5 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* R.A. Dickey has an ERA of 14.59 in three career starts with Angel Hernandez behind home plate. He also has a horrible 9.47 ERA at US Cellular Park. Dickey is also much worse in his career pitching during the day, and this is a day game.
Miguel Gonzalez isn't a very good pitcher, and this White Sox bullpen has been awful in recent weeks. Toronto's offense is as hot as they have been all year. Things are finally starting to click for them. It's hard to imagine them being silenced by Gonzalez and this bullpen.
Hot weather and a day game in Chicago means the ball should be flying well. Look for a high scoring game. Take the over.
|06-25-16||Twins v. Yankees -1.5||1-2||Loss||-100||11 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Rout* Ervin Santana has an 8.14 ERA at Yankee Stadium in his career. The Yankees offense is slowly getting better as the season goes on, and I think they will put up several runs in this one. Minnesota's bullpen hasn't been good this year, and they have thrown a lot of innings lately.
Michael Pineda is better than his numbers show so far this year. His ERA is far higher than his FIP, XFIP, or SIERA and that suggests he has had bad luck. Additionally, he keeps striking out a ton of guys. When you are missing as many bats as Pineda is, you are doing something right.
Minnesota is just a bad team, and the Yankees are playing pretty good baseball again. I think the Yankees get a lead here and then turn it over to that tremendous bullpen. Take New York -1.5.
|06-24-16||Diamondbacks +128 v. Rockies||10-9||Win||128||6 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. They'll be facing a lefty tonight at Coors Field. Tyler Anderson has pitched pretty well so far this year, but this is his toughest test so far. Anderson is likely to be a solid starter in the long run, but youngsters usually struggle a lot early on at Coors Field. It is just so unique that it takes time to get accustomed to how things work pitching at that park.
Archie Bradley makes the start for Arizona. Bradley has been inconsistent this year, and he is likely to give up several runs, but it is important to note that Colorado is banged up right now. Carlos Gonzalez left last night's game with a wrist injury and is questionable for this one. It won't be a surprise if he gets the day off. Gerardo Parra is out with an injury right now as well. The Rockies lineup isn't what they once were.
In a game that should be a slugfest, I'll take the nice plus money price, especially when it is the team that has hit lefties so well all season. Take Arizona.
|06-24-16||Padres v. Reds -114||13-4||Loss||-114||19 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Friday Night CASH* The Cincinnati Reds start Cody Reed in this one. Reed is a pretty highly touted prospect. He is making only his second start of his career in this one, and this is his first home start. I expect Reed to be a good big leaguer, and his slider is the key pitch for him.
While San Diego has hit lefties well this year, this is a guy they have never seen before. San Diego's Colin Rea is starting in this one, and quite frankly he isn't good. Rea has an ERA over 5 in his career, and the Reds have enough offense to get to him in this one. Reed is a much better pitcher than Rea.
The Reds bullpen is certainly a concern and that's why I limited this to a 3 star play, but the Reds bullpen has been a bit better of late. Iglesias is now pitching in the pen for Cincinnati, and that helps them quite a bit.
The pitching mismatch is enough to make me like Cincinnati here. Take Cincinnati.
|06-23-16||White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5||7-8||Loss||-113||17 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* The Boston Red Sox have had the best offense in the majors all year. James Shields is on an epic bad run of late.
How bad has Shields been of late? Let's take a closer look. Shields has allowed an eye-popping 32 runs in his last 4 starts. 32 runs allowed in only 11 and 1/3 innings pitched. That's just ridiculous. Control both inside and outside of the zone is a major problem, and he obviously has no confidence now. Until he proves he can get big league hitters out, I have to fade him, and this is a really tough lineup to get through.
Boston is in a good situational spot here as well after losing the first 3 games of this series. They have a big pitching advantage and certainly want to get out of this series with one game under their belts.
Rick Porcello has been better this year, and the White Sox have an inconsistent offense. Chicago's bullpen has also been bad in the past month.
Boston gets back on track against Shields.
Take Boston -1.5.
|06-22-16||Phillies v. Twins OVER 8.5||5-6||Win||100||21 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins are on an amazing run. The over is 14-1 in their last 15 games. Minnesota's offense underachieved early in the year, and they are starting to hit the ball much better of late. At the same time, the Twins rotation and bullpen continue to struggle.
Philadelphia starts Adam Morgan in this one and he has a terrible 6.49 ERA on the year. More than 38% of the batted balls off Morgan have been hit hard, and that's one of the worst ratings in the majors.
Kyle Gibson starts for Minnesota and he has walked almost as many guys as he has struck out this year. That's a major problem. He is susceptible to the big inning.
The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in Morgan's last 4 Wednesday starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 overall. The over is 7-0-1 in the Twins last 8 interleague home games. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 interleague games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. A 32-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-22-16||Padres v. Orioles OVER 10||2-7||Loss||-120||7 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Baltimore Orioles absolutely crush right handed pitching, and Erik Johnson is definitely one of the worst right handed starters in the majors. How bad is he? Johnson has a 7.66 ERA and his FIP is even worse at 8.66. Baltimore should pile up the runs in this one.
Ubaldo Jimenez is on the other side here. Jimenez has an ERA just above 7 on the year. Jimenez is facing a Padres lineup that is surprisingly hot right now. San Diego has scored at least 5 runs in each of their last six games.
San Diego's bullpen is much worse this year than they have been in the past. The Orioles have a good back end of the bullpen, but the middle relief is very weak.
Jerry Meals is the umpire here and he is one of the better over umpires in the majors. Take the over.
|06-22-16||Diamondbacks +158 v. Blue Jays||2-5||Loss||-100||16 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't as good as the Toronto Blue Jays, but this line is too big for me to pass up. Why? Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties.
J.A. Happ has had a pretty good season this year, but he is a pitch to contact guy, and this Arizona team can really hit those lefties. Happ has an ERA of 3.41 this year, but his FIP is 4.54, so he has definitely gotten fortunate thus far in the season.
Arizona's Robbie Ray has a 4.44 ERA and a 3.99 FIP, indicating he is better than his ERA would suggest. Ray gets to go against a Toronto team without Jose Bautista.
I certainly agree that Toronto should be favored here, but this line is too big. The Blue Jays pen hasn't been very good this year, and Arizona winning a tight game should come as no surprise. Take Arizona.
|06-22-16||Angels v. Astros UNDER 8||2-3||Win||100||14 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angels in the final game of a three game set on Wednesday afternoon. This is a get away day game, and those have been lower scoring over the years on average. Expect some key contributors to get the day off in this game.
Matt Shoemaker has been lights out since making some mechanical changes a few starts ago. In his last 6 starts, Shoemaker has 2 walks and 55 strikeouts. Yes, you read that correctly. He's got things working very well right now, and this Astros offense has a lot of guys who strike out a lot.
Lance McCullers is striking out 11.16 batters per nine innings. McCullers has been tremendous this year, and in his career he has been great at home. McCullers has a 5.06 ERA on the road in his career and a 2.05 ERA at home. He'll be at home in this one. He's backed by a bullpen which is one of the best in baseball.
Take the under.
|06-22-16||Royals v. Mets UNDER 7||3-4||Push||0||13 h 23 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Noah Syndergaard was slated to start on Tuesday night, but the Mets wanted to rearrange the schedules for their pitchers and moved him to Wednesday afternoon. Syndergaard has been amazing all year and I see no reason he'll be anything other than that here. He is the rare strikeout pitcher who doesn't walk guys. The Mets had to use up the bullpen last night after Colon got hurt early, and I think Syndergaard will pitch deep into this game to save the bullpen.
Danny Duffy has a much better road ERA in his career (3.35) than he has at home (4.13). The under is 10-1 in Duffy's last 11 road starts. The Mets have been terrible this year, and particularly bad of late, against left handed pitching.
John Hirschbeck is the umpire here and that's a good thing for under bettors with his strike zone. It's hard to see either team scoring many on a get away day afternoon game. Take the under.
|06-22-16||Rockies +147 v. Yankees||8-9||Loss||-100||13 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Colorado Rockies have Jon Gray on the mound here, and he's a guy I'm very high on. Gray might struggle at home this year, but he is a bet on guy for me on the road. Gray has tremendous stuff, and this Yankees offense ranks 25th in the majors in wOBA so far this year.
C.C. Sabathia has been good this year, but he has given up a home run on 3% of his fly balls this year. Last year it was 16.6%. He's going to give up more home runs in the long term and against this Rockies lineup in the daytime I won't be surprised if it is here.
I think Gray is better than Sabathia, and the Rockies offense has been more consistent than the Yankees. The Yankees clearly have the better bullpen, but middle relief is a bit of an issue for the Yankees if Sabathia were to get hit around early.
Too big of a price here. Take Colorado.
|06-21-16||Reds v. Rangers OVER 10||8-2||Push||0||17 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Anthony Desclafani hasn't been sharp in his first couple outings coming off the disabled list. The Reds aren't going to force him any further than they have to either, and this Reds bullpen is just awful. The more this Reds bullpen is in the game the better for this over bet. Texas can put runs on the board in a hurry at home.
Colby Lewis nearly threw a no hitter last game, and I think he comes back down to earth here. His ERA at home in his career is about 5. While Lewis has an ERA of only 2.81 this year, that is definitely going to change. Lewis is notoriously bad at home when the weather gets warm, and it will be 91 degrees for this one. Lewis has a 2.81 ERA but all advanced metrics have his expected ERA at norht of 4. Some are even higher than 4.5. Regression is coming.
The over is 44-16-3 in Lewis' last 63 home starts. Take the over.
|06-19-16||Rangers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5||5-4||Win||100||13 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Andy Fletcher is one of the best over umpires in the business. Fletcher has consistently had one of the lowest strikes called percentages in the past three seasons.
Mike Leake isn't missing bats right now, and his peripheral statistics are almost all worse this year than they were last season. The Rangers offense is getting healthy now.
Martin Perez is definitely due for some regression. Advanced metrics suggest his ERA should be closer to 5. The Cardinals lineup is a tough one to navigate through.
Neither of these bullpens are great, and the weather is very favorable here. The forecast calls for 91 degrees and wind of about 10 mph out to center. Take the over.
|06-19-16||Rockies v. Marlins OVER 8||0-3||Loss||-115||11 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Tom Koehler isn't a very good pitcher. He is even worse in day starts. In his career, Koehler has a 3.86 night ERA and a 4.66 day ERA. The Marlins starter goes up against a pretty good Rockies lineup in this one.
Tyler Anderson may have decent stuff, but I don't expect things to come easy for him right away. Anderson faced a weak Padres lineup in his first big league start. Miami has a good lineup against lefties and they should get some runs here.
Scott Barry is a good umpire to have for over bettors as well. A total of only 8 makes the over the value side here. Take the over.
|06-18-16||White Sox v. Indians UNDER 9||2-13||Loss||-110||18 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. While he has gone on an over run of late this year, his strikes called have still been very high. Every single year for the last few seasons, he has ranked in the top 10 umpires in the league in strikes called. He also ranks very high on the list in strikeouts/walk ratio. Bottom line: if you have an umpire who is calling far more strikes than the league average and is punching people out- that's a good under umpire.
There is a real concern in this game, and it is James Shields. To say he has been awful in his last 3 starts is putting it mildly. Still, he gets the best umpire possible here, and Cleveland is a pitcher-friendly park.
The oddsmakers know Miller is an under umpire, and this total of 9 is the highest total on a Bill Miller umpired game all season. It is rare to see 9's in Cleveland in general, and with Bill Miller as the umpire and Danny Salazar on the mound for the Indians, I have to take this bet on principle.
Salazar is tremendous, and this White Sox lineup isn't very good. Salazar has swing and miss stuff and he'll get the corners with this umpire as well.
The under is 27-11-2 in the last 40 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
|06-17-16||Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||2-3||Win||100||20 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Julio Urias has a very bright future ahead of him. In his last two starts, he has begun to show just how good he could be for the Dodgers. He gets to pitch in the pitcher-friendly Dodger stadium again here, and Milwaukee's offense is just mediocre on the road.
Zach Davies has been very good in recent outings. Davies has been controlling all of his pitches better, and he does against a Dodgers lineup that has really struggled to score runs at home this year.
Everitt is the umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 27-9 in the Dodgers last 36 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. Take the under.
|06-17-16||Tigers -111 v. Royals||3-10||Loss||-111||18 h 36 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Detroit Tigers should be a bigger favorite here. Yordano Ventura isn't even close to the pitcher he was last year. His swinging strike rate is at only 7.5% on the year compared to 10.4% last year. He isn't missing bats, and this Tigers lineup is very good.
Detroit's Michael Fulmer hasn't allowed a run in his last 28 and 1/3 innings pitched. Truly amazing. Fulmer is a rookie with great stuff, and the fact that Kansas City hasn't seen him yet is clearly a positive.
Though the Royals have been winning games of late, there's no doubt that being without Gordon and Moustakas hurt this team.
Detroit is 7-0 in Fulmer's last 7 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. Take Detroit here.
|06-17-16||Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||8-4||Win||100||17 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox scored one run last night. Boston has the best offense in baseball, and it's very unlikely they will be quieted two nights in a row. Iwakuma's stuff isn't quite as good as it was in the past. He has struggled in the past against the Red Sox, and I don't see that changing here.
Roenis Elias starts for the Red Sox here. He was a subpar pitcher for the Mariners, and now he pitches in a much worse park for pitchers and has to face his former team. This Seattle lineup has been much better in recent weeks, and they should put up plenty here.
Take the over.
|06-17-16||White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8||Top||2-3||Win||100||17 h 50 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* The Chicago White Sox send Jose Quintana to the mound. To say he gets almost no run support in general is an understatement. Quintana has been the hard luck loser all kinds of times in the past couple years with this White Sox team.
Quintana has been amazing when pitching in Cleveland in his career. He has a brilliant 0.93 ERA in 38 and 2/3 innings in Cleveland. In 15 IP last year in Cleveland, he didn't allow a single earned run. Quintana has been very consistent, and this is a good park for pitchers on the whole.
Trevor Bauer has always had the stuff to be a good big league starter, but he hasn't put it together until recently. Bauer's last few starts have been his best run of consistency in a very long time. Bauer has pitched well against Chicago in the last two years. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is subpar, especially away from home. I think he can continue his recent solid pitching.
The wind is expected to be blowing in at 10-15 mph for this game which is a nice bonus.
The under is 8-0 in Quintana's last 8 starts when the White Sox opponent allows 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 9-0 in his last 9 following a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 during game one of a series. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. Cleveland. A 43-0 angle. Take the under big! TOP Total of the Week
|06-17-16||Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9||13-3||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays bats are clearly warming up of late. They blasted Aaron Nola last night, and Toronto is really getting much better production out of the bottom of the order.
Mike Wright isn't a very good pitcher, and he has a miserable 7.13 ERA in his career against Toronto. I don't have any confidence in him being able to cool them off in this one.
Aaron Sanchez has pitched well this year, but this is a difficult matchup for him. Baltimore's lineup is really good against right handed pitching.
It should be noted as well that both Wright and Sanchez just pitched against their opponent last weekend, and those quick turnarounds generally benefit the hitters more than the pitchers.
The over is 6-0-1 in the Blue Jays last 7 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in Wright's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts when Baltimore's opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The over is 7-0 in Wright's last 7 starts when the Orioles opponent scored 5 runs or more in their last game. A 22-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-16-16||Orioles v. Red Sox -129||5-1||Loss||-129||18 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have had the best offense in baseball so far this year. Boston is a very tough team to ask Tyler Wilson to quiet down.
Baltimore has a much better team than anyone (including myself) expected, but the clear weakness of their team is their starting rotation. Tyler Wilson is a guy who wouldn't be in very many big league rotations. Boston is an offense that punishes mistakes right now, and Wilson makes way too many mistakes. Wilson is averaging only 4.57 strikeouts per nine innings, so he isn't missing nearly enough bats.
Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't been good this year, but the Orioles offense is much better against right handed pitchers than lefties. Rodriguez still has a high upside, and I expect him to get it figured out sooner or later.
The Red Sox have the better offense, the better starter, and the better bullpen. The Red Sox are 8-2 in Rodriguez's last 10 home starts. Take Boston.
|06-16-16||Blue Jays v. Phillies UNDER 8||13-2||Loss||-110||18 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Phillies rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitchers. J.A. Happ isn't a great pitcher, but he's a guy who should be able to have success against a lineup like this one. Happ has pitched in Philadelphia in the past and that's probably a positive for him here.
Toronto loses the DH and the pitcher spot batting here is certainly very good for the under. Aaron Nola has electric stuff and I'm very high on him. Nola had a poor outing last game, and I think he can come back and throw the ball well in this one. The Blue Jays offense has disappointed all year, and they are worse against right handers than lefties.
Tony Randazzo is an under umpire and he should help both pitchers in this one.
The under is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in Happ's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 9-1 in Happ's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 19-1 angle. Take the under.
|06-16-16||Mariners v. Rays UNDER 7.5||6-4||Loss||-113||12 h 8 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays both have good left handed pitchers starting in this one. James Paxton has 4 walks and 24 strikeouts this year. He has pitched into some bad luck, and this is a guy who I think has a high upside. Paxton has shown the ability to shut teams down in the past, and I expect a good outing.
Blake Snell was averaging 12.86 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A so far this year. Snell has a tremendous upside, and he looked good in his one start thus far.
Ron Kulpa is the umpire in this one, and there isn't a single umpire in the majors with a bigger edge to the under than Kulpa in the past five years. It being a get away day game makes me like this one even more since the lineups are likely to look a little less strong than normal. Evan Longoria left last night's game with an injury and is questionable for this one.
Take the under.
|06-15-16||Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5||2-10||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels have been smashing the cover off the ball so far in this series. I expect it to continue on Wednesday night.
Both of these offenses struggled early in the year, but both of them rank in the top half of the league in weighted on base average in the past two weeks. The Twins offense is way better than they showed early in the year, and the Angels are getting better production from some of their role players of late.
Tyler Duffey is way too inconsistent for me. The Twins bullpen behind him isn't very good either. The Angels start Hector Santiago here, and he has been terrible of late. His lack of control is a major problem, and home plate umpire Tim Timmons will make that a bigger issue. Timmons has a small strike zone and will pinch the zone for both of these guys. The Angels bullpen has been one of the five worst in the majors in the past month.
The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games against lefties. The over is 4-0-1 in Duffey's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts following a team loss. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 5-0-1 in the Angels last 6 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in Santiago's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. A 42-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-15-16||Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5||3-5||Loss||-105||20 h 29 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers are one of the rare teams who have been able to hit Chris Sale well. The Tigers hitters have a very solid .346 OBP against Sale. Detroit can stack up the right handed bats and make things tough on Sale. The White Sox bullpen has been imploding of late, and I have no faith in their ability to hold a late lead if they have it here.
Mike Pelfrey just isn't any good. Pelfrey's advanced metrics suggest his ERA should be quite a bit higher than it actually is so far this season. The White Sox hitters have a great .367 OBP against Pelfrey all time. He just puts way too many guys on base, and is constantly pitching out of the stretch. The Tigers bullpen has struggled in this series, and that is important here too.
The over is 4-0 in Sale's last 4 starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1-1 in Sale's last 6 starts vs. Detroit. A 19-1 angle. Take the over.
|06-15-16||Mariners v. Rays -110||2-3||Win||100||19 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Tampa Bay Rays start Drew Smyly here and I think he is underrated. Smyly got some extra time off before this start because he has struggled a bit of late. He's still been missing a lot of bats though, and that's definitely a good sign. Smyly is a guy who I believe has good upside and I expect him to bounce back.
Nate Karns was pitching way above expectations for him early this year, but he's come crashing down of late. Karns is walking 4.23 batters per nine innings, which is way too many for me. Those extra chances with men on base usually cost you.
This price is just too low for the Rays at home with the pitching advantage. Take Tampa Bay.
|06-15-16||Cubs v. Nationals -132||4-5||Win||100||16 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Jason Hammel is the weak link in the Chicago Cubs starting rotation. Hammel is nearly 34 years old and his stuff is declining a bit. Hammel has a 2.36 ERA, but his XFIP is 4.20. He is stranding 85% of runners this year, and that number can't continue. Hammel isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't that good.
Stephen Strasburg has been tremendous this year. Strasburg is striking out 11.51 batters per nine innings, which is just tremendous. Strasburg has been far more consistent this year than in the past.
The Cubs bullpen is at a clear disadvantage here, and Strasburg is much better than Hammel. Grab the home team. Take Washington.
|06-15-16||Marlins v. Padres OVER 8.5||3-6||Win||100||23 h 12 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres average 3.39 runs per game against right handed pitching. They average 5.68 runs per game against left handed pitching. They'll be facing a weak lefty in Justin Nicolino on Wednesday afternoon. Nicolino is one of the worst left handed pitchers in baseball, and I like San Diego's chances of putting up several runs.
Luis Perdomo starts for the Padres, and he had never pitched in Double A or Triple A before this year. He was jumped up to the majors because the Padres are severely short on arms. He can't pitch deep into the game, and the Padres bullpen is very weak. The Miami offense has been underrated all year.
Cory Blaser gives us a decent over umpire for this game as well. I think we'll see a higher scoring game in San Diego on Wednesday afternoon. Take the over.
|06-14-16||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5||7-4||Win||100||20 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Chase Field is a tremendous park for hitters when the roof is open with very hot temperatures. That should be the case on Tuesday night. The DBacks website lists the roof status as open and the projected temperature at gametime of 98 degrees. That means the ball will fly very well in this one.
Kenta Maeda is a good pitcher, but I suspect he isn't quite as good as his numbers so far this year indicate. He has had good luck with keeping the ball in the park, and that will be tougher in this situation.
Archie Bradley is way too inconsistent for my liking, and he walks a bunch of guys. Bradley has been an over machine in his short career.
The over is 4-0 in Bradley's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 when the DBacks opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 home starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL West. An 18-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-14-16||Yankees v. Rockies UNDER 11.5||10-13||Loss||-106||19 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* Taking an under at Coors Field is never a lot of fun, but there is way too much value to pass up here. The Yankees rank 26th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching this year. Jorge De La Rosa actually has a nice history pitching at Coors Field. He does a nice job adapting to the Coors Field conditions.
Nathan Eovaldi has 3 starts at Coors Field and his ERA in those starts is a sparkling 1.47. Eovaldi has electric stuff, and this Rockies team has actually been a little quieter on offense in recent days.
The Rockies highest scoring games at home have typically come during day games. This one is a night game where the temperature will be falling through the upper 70's during the game. That isn't bad conditions for hitters, but it is far from the best possible.
This game is lined like these are two awful pitchers and elite offenses. I don't think that is the case. Factor in the Yankees amazing bullpen, and I have to take the under in this one.
|06-14-16||Mariners v. Rays UNDER 7.5||7-8||Loss||-100||5 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays start Jake Odorizzi in this one. Odorizzi has been great at home throughout his career. Odorizzi has a 2.88 ERA at home in his career. His ERA is 2.52 at home this year.
Taijuan Walker is definitely capable of breaking out and having a great season. He has all the tools necessary. Walker had one of his best starts of his career last time out against Cleveland. Look for him to keep building on that start here.
Seattle's offense has been streaky, and they have been much worse of late. Tampa Bay was red hot for a while, but they have since cooled off.
The under is 43-14-2 in the last 59 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. Take the under.
|06-14-16||Phillies v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||3-11||Loss||-117||10 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies ranks in the bottom five in the majors in both the last 14 days and the last 7 days in terms of production. This Phillies offense is coming off a nice performance against R.A. Dickey last night, but Marcus Stroman should prove a tougher challenge for them.
Stroman has been at his best at home during the day in his career, and he should induce a lot of swinging strikes against this lineup.
Zach Elfin showed tremendous control in the minors and he has some solid stuff. Toronto's offense has been a disappointment this year.
With this being a get away day, some key players could get the day off here.
Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is my single favorite under umpire. He is a strike calling machine. If this one goes over, it won't be because of Miller.
The under is 6-0-1 in the Phillies last 7 Tuesday games. The under is 8-0 in the Jays last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in the Jays last 5 games following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 31-0 angle. Take the under.
|06-13-16||Marlins -102 v. Padres||13-4||Win||100||22 h 41 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins are starting to get healthy. Miami finally has Yelich and Stanton back in the lineup. Ozuna has become a reliable hitter and Bour is a nice weapon as well.
San Diego's offense is among the worst in baseball. The Padres struggled to score at Coors Field most of the weekend, and now they come home to their home park where they have really struggled offensively all year.
Wei Yin Chen is a perfect match for this park. Chen is a fly ball pitcher, and that is a good thing in a park like this one. Add in the fact that San Diego really doesn't have hardly anyone who hits for power, and I think Chen will pitch well here.
Colin Rea is a subpar pitcher who has struggled even at home. The Marlins offense is an underrated unit, and I think they can get to him.
The Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Miami.
|06-13-16||Cubs +128 v. Nationals||1-4||Loss||-100||19 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Chicago Cubs have been the best team in the majors so far this year, and at this price I have to make a play on them here. There aren't going to be many times we can get the Cubs at this price all year.
Chicago has a very underrated pitcher on the mound in this one. Kyle Hendricks has a 2.90 ERA and a 3.04 FIP on the year. Hendricks has great control and rarely allows home runs. Washington's lineup has a miserable .106 average against him.
Max Scherzer is a really good pitcher, but he hasn't been in his best form this year. Scherzer has been inconsistent this year, and he has been giving up some big innings more often than the Nationals would like to see. The Cubs are a very patient offense and they'll make Scherzer work in this one.
The Nationals are great against lefties, but they are only mediocre offensively against right handed pitching.
Good price on the road team. Take the Cubs.
|06-12-16||Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 8||1-2||Win||103||19 h 43 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The San Francisco Giants start Jake Peavy in this one and the Los Angeles Dodgers start rookie phenom Julio Urias.
Urias got off to a rocky start, but he was much better last game, and his stuff is tremendous. The Giants are short-handed on offense right now, and this is a tremendous pitchers park.
Peavy has been very good against the Dodgers in his career, and the Dodgers offense ranks in the bottom five in the majors in the past 14 days in wOBA. The Giants don't rank much higher at 23rd.
This is a national television game and I expect a heated battle here. Look for runs to be difficult to come by.
Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate here and the under is 26-9-1 in his last 35 Sunday games. He is noted for having a bigger strike zone than a normal umpire. Take the under.
|06-12-16||Phillies v. Nationals -1.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-115||14 h 48 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB Game of the WEEK* The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen isn't good to start with, and right now this unit is overworked. Aaron Nola didn't go deep into the game at all on Saturday, and that hurt. On the other side, the Nationals have one of the best bullpens in baseball and they were saved by Tanner Roark's strong outing yesterday.
Adam Morgan isn't a good pitcher. Morgan is a below average lefty, and he allowed 6 runs against Washington earlier this year. Washington's offense ranks in the top five against lefties in baseball in all the major offensive categories. Morgan has an ERA of 7.22 in day games. The Nationals should get to Morgan as well as the bullpen.
Joe Ross has a 0.61 ERA in two starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia clearly isn't as good as they looked at the start of the season, and the Nationals are a very good team.
The Phillies are 0-5 in Morgan's last 5 starts. The Nationals are 7-1 in Ross' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. This one is a mismatch. Take Washington -1.5 big. TOP Play- MLB Game of the WEEK
|06-12-16||Indians v. Angels UNDER 8.5||8-3||Loss||-100||14 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Mark Ripperger is one of the top five under umpires in baseball. This is a guy who is calling a ton of strikes and taking pressure off the pitchers. The under is 35-17 in his last 52 games behind the dish.
Danny Salazar is taking the next step and is close to becoming an elite pitcher right now. The Indians offense has been good at home, but they have struggled on the road.On the other side, the Angels have been bad offensively at home.
Huff isn't a pitcher I like very much, but this umpire draw helps him and he'll try to work the corners here.
This is a very high total for a game in LA, especially with a pitcher as good as Salazar involved.
Take the under here.
|06-12-16||A's v. Reds -114||6-1||Loss||-114||11 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is bad, but John Lamb has been much better in his last couple starts. Lamb had a minor injury that slowed him down for quite a while, but he is healthy again now. Lamb is pitching deep into the game, which is definitely a good thing since this Reds bullpen is terrible.
The primary reason I like this bet is Kendall Graveman. He has serious home run problems, and this is not the ballpark or team to be facing when you have those kind of problems. The Reds actually rank first in the majors in wOBA in the past two weeks. Adam Duvall is scorching the ball right now and Joey Votto is heating up as well.
The A's are at a big disadvantage offensively, and the price is good enough here.
The A's are 0-5 in Graveman's last 5 road starts. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games overall. They are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the Reds. A 22-0 angle. Take Cincinnati.
|06-11-16||Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8||5-1||Loss||-120||17 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Francisco Liriano in this one. Liriano has good career numbers vs. the Cardinals, but I still have to doubt his ability to shut them down here. St. Louis has one of the best offenses in baseball this year, and Liriano has been having severe command problems of late.
Even if Liriano does pitch well here, he very rarely pitches deep into the game, and the Pirates bullpen ranks as one of the worst five bullpens in the majors.
Carlos Martinez has a 5.30 ERA at PNC Park in his career. This Pirates offense is far better than most people realize. Pittsburgh should get their chances in this one.
The warm weather here is a help as well.
Take the over.
|06-11-16||Padres v. Rockies OVER 12||3-5||Loss||-119||16 h 35 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* This posted total is set very high, but it's not high enough to keep me off the over. Coors Field is always a good park for hitters, but day games when the weather is like it is set to be on Saturday are on a different level. The temperature is scheduled to be 92 degrees with wind out at 15 mph. That makes this place a launching pad.
Erik Johnson has been a bad major league starter no matter where he has been, and now San Diego has given him his first start with the team and set it for this game against Colorado at Coors Field. Tough spot! The Rockies should be slug out a bunch of runs here. The Padres bullpen isn't good either, so that is an additional bonus.
Tyler Chatwood hasn't allowed a home run all year on the road, but he has allowed a home run on 23.1 percent of his fly balls at Coors Field this year. Chatwood has terrible home splits, and the Padres have hit the ball very well at Coors Field this year.
Paul Emmel is one of the best over umpires in the game and he's behind the plate for this game.
The over is 5-0-1 in the Padres last 6 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0-1 in the Rockies last 5 home games vs a righty. The over is 6-1-1 in the Rockies last 8 games. A 19-1 angle. Take the over.
|06-11-16||Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8||0-8||Push||0||11 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Aaron Nola is a really good young pitcher. Nola has a tremendous curveball and a great sinker. Few pitchers can fool people as bad as Nola does on a consistent basis. Nola has pitched 12 innings in Washington in his career and has yet to allow a run. Nola had a 1.58 ERA on the road so far this year.
Tanner Roark had some bad starts against Philadelphia last year, but he has dominated them this year. Roark has thrown 14 innings and allowed only 2 runs against them.
The Phillies lineup isn't very good, and while Washington is great against lefties they have struggled against right handed pitching this year.
Both pitchers are much better during day games than at night. This is a very early start time. The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
|06-10-16||Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||8-6||Win||100||19 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks offenses are both much better against left handed pitching. Justin Nicolino is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball according to many of the statistics I look at. Nicolino doesn't strike anyone out, and his control isn't very good. The Diamondbacks rank in the top three in the majors in almost all categories when it comes to offensive production vs. lefties.
The Marlins lineup is designed well to hit lefties. Patrick Corbin has been very inconsistent this year, and he seems to not fully have his confidence back.
Both of these bullpens are subpar right now as well.
The Chase Field Roof is slated to be open as of now. I worry that the roof could be closed due to the heat, so I will keep this as a 3 star play instead of 4. Regardless, I believe this play has real value.
The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 road games. The over is 7-1 in the DBacks last 8 home games. Take the over.
|06-10-16||Orioles +125 v. Blue Jays||3-4||Loss||-100||16 h 14 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Baltimore Orioles are a better team than I thought they would be. Buck Showalter is one of the best managers in baseball, and that certainly plays a role. The Orioles bullpen is good, and this offense is tremendous. The question mark for Baltimore is the starting rotation. In this one though, the Orioles have the starter with the most upside from their rotation on the mound.
Kevin Gausman has very good stuff and I see him maturing as a pitcher. Gausman has good breaking stuff, and his fastball has a lot of life.
Toronto's Marco Estrada is a guy who I believe is a little bit overvalued. Estrada isn't a bad pitcher, but he's less consistent than I'd want to back laying this kind of price against a great offense.
The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in their last 5 Friday games. They are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a right handed starter. Take Baltimore.
|06-10-16||Tigers v. Yankees OVER 9||0-4||Loss||-128||16 h 13 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers are absolutely pummeling left handed pitching of late. They started the season curiously slow against lefties, but they are making up for it lately. Detroit put up 11 runs vs. J.A. Happ. They scored 7 runs vs. Chris Sale. They scored 10 runs against Carlos Rodon. Those were all in the past week.
C.C. Sabathia has pitched well this year, but he is a major candidate for regression and this Detroit offense is extremely good. While the back of the Yankee bullpen is great, if Sabathia gets pulled early the middle of the Yankees pen isn't all that great.
Mike Pelfrey is just a really bad pitcher. Pelfrey is constantly pitching from the stretch and trying to work out of a jam. The Yankees lineup underachieved for a long time, but they are hitting the ball right now. I don't see any reason to expect that to stop tonight.
I expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over.
|06-09-16||Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11.5||5-11||Win||100||16 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB RED Hot CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies play an afternoon game at Coors Field on Thursday. The temperature for this one is expected to be 90 degrees and that's important. Year after year we have seen that with very hot weather Coors Field is the ultimate hitter's park. That is even more the case when it is a day game, where the ball flies much better than it does at night in Colorado.
Jeff Locke is coming off some nice starts of late, but he's not a good pitcher on the road. Despite his good start in Colorado earlier this year, I feel comfortable assuming that Colorado will get to him here. Locke is a much worse pitcher on the road overall, and his advanced statistics suggest he is due for regression.
Locke has a 4.28 ERA but his FIP is 5.13 and his SIERA is 5.23. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in their home games.
Pittsburgh ranks 7th in wOBA on the road this year. The Pirates are getting healthy again, and I really like this Pittsburgh lineup when healthy. Chad Bettis has a career 6.34 ERA when pitching at Coors Field.
The over is 20-7-4 in Locke's last 31 road starts. The over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 home games. Take the over.
|06-08-16||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||1-0||Win||100||22 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Chris Rusin has solid numbers and peripherals this year. The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been disappointing this year. Colorado's bullpen is much better than they were a year ago.
Maeda is a solid pitcher who has great deception. The Rockies offense isn't what it has been in recent years.
Adam Hamari is the umpire here and he ranks in the top 5% of umpires in the majors in terms of strikes called percentages. This is a very good under umpire. He'll give both pitchers the corners.
The marine layer in California is thicker at this time than at any other time during the year.
The under is 10-4 in the Dodgers last 14 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-2 in Rusin's last 7 starts. Take the under.
|06-08-16||Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||0-5||Win||102||20 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These are two teams who have been hitting the ball pretty well of late, but Seattle is much better offensively on the road and Cleveland is much better offensively at home.
Cleveland ranks 27th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) on the road. The Indians rank 4th in wOBA at home. Seattle ranks 13th at home and 5th on the road.
Taijuan Walker has been struggling with his command of late, but Mike Muchlinski being behind the dish is a big positive for him. Muchlinski is a big under umpire who will give him the corners.
Carlos Carrasco has been amazing on the road in the past three seasons. He has an ERA under 3 on the road in three straight seasons.
Both of these bullpens are solid as well, and this is definitely a pitcher's park.
Take the under.
|06-08-16||Braves v. Padres UNDER 7||4-2||Win||100||16 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Drew Pomeranz is very underrated as a starting pitcher and this Atlanta Braves offense is awful. Atlanta is bad on offense against everyone, but they are even worse against left handed starters.
Julio Teheran has good numbers this year and all year the Braves have given him very little run support.
The umpire here is Angel Hernandez and he ranks in the top 25% of umpires in the majors when it comes to strikes called percentages.
The marine layer is particularly thick in California this time of the year, which makes it tougher for the ball to fly.
All these factors equal an under play for me. Take the under.
|06-07-16||Royals v. Orioles OVER 9||1-9||Win||100||18 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT Cash* Ubaldo Jimenez and Yordano Ventura are both having some major issues right now. Jimenez has a 10.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 28 runs in his last 5 starts. Jimenez isn't a guy that can be trusted right now. He has an ERA 6.59 on the year, and he has been consistently terrible of late.
Yordano Ventura has been a big disappointment this year. Ventura had a 4.82 ERA and all the advanced metrics suggest he is actually getting lucky. Ventura should have an ERA even worse than that with the way he has pitched thus far.
Both Jimenez and Ventura are averaging more than 5 walks per nine innings pitched. That's just ridiculous and it is one of the biggest reasons for this bet. Anytime a big league pitcher is putting that many guys on base for free, there are going to be a lot of scoring opportunities.
Manny Gonzalez is an over umpire and that gives us an added boost for this play.
The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0-1 in the Orioles last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter overall. The over is 5-0 in Jimenez's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 30-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-06-16||Blue Jays v. Tigers -111||0-11||Win||100||16 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers start Michael Fulmer in this one, and he is absolutely locked in right now. Fulmer has tremendous upside, and he has shown it for 3 straight starts. Fulmer has allowed one earned run in his last three starts combined. He has walked four batters and struck out 22. Fulmer has been using his changeup much more, and that has really helped his fastball and hard slider be much more effective.
J.A. Happ has good numbers this year. I don't necessarily think Happ is a bad pitcher, but I do think he is due for some regression. Happ has a 3.06 ERA with a 4.20 FIP, a 4.56 XFIP, and a 4.72 SIERA. The past two full seasons Happ had a batting average on balls in play of .297 and .312. This year, it is at the .259 mark. That should change over time.
Detroit's lineup is crushing the baseball right now, and they will stack up the lineup with a bunch of right handed batters for this one.
The Tigers 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. They are 5-0 in Fulmer's last 5 starts. A 16-0 angle. Take Detroit.
|06-05-16||Mariners -111 v. Rangers||2-3||Loss||-111||14 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners were beaten on Saturday night, but I think they'll get back on track Sunday afternoon. Hisashi Iwakuma starts for them here, and he has been solid against Texas in his career. Iwakuma has a 3.66 ERA in 46 and 2/3 innings pitched at Texas in his career. That's a great ERA at a hitters park like Texas. The Rangers lineup has a weak .298 on base percentage against him.
On the other side, Derek Holland has struggled with this Seattle lineup. He has an ERA of less than 2 against Seattle on the road, but when facing them at home, his ERA is nearly 5. Overall, Seattle's lineup has a .317 average and a .365 on base percentage against Holland.
Jim Wolf is the home plate umpire here, and in 5 career starts with Wolf behind home plate, Derek Holland has been terrible. He has a 10.13 ERA in 21 and 1/3 innings pitched with Wolf behind the plate.
This Seattle team is red hot offensively, and the Mariners have a much better bullpen than the Rangers. Take Seattle.
|06-05-16||Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7||0-1||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The New York Mets take on the Miami Marlins in what I expect will be a pitcher's duel on Sunday afternoon.
The Miami Marlins offense is scuffling of late. While Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton are back in the lineup, they aren't back in a rhythm and likely aren't 100 percent healthy yet. Matt Harvey pitched great in his last outing after a string of bad starts. Harvey has some terrible batted ball luck this year, and I expect him to improve over the course of the season.
Jose Fernandez is the real, and at home he has been nearly unhittable in his career. Fernandez is 22-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his career at home. The Mets offense is very short handed now without Wright, Davis, and Cespedes was scratched on Saturday is questionable here.
The Marlins starting lineup has a .168 career average against Harvey. Fernandez owns a 1.67 ERA in 5 starts vs. the Mets.
The under is 5-0 in Fernandez's last 5 home starts. Take the under.
|06-04-16||Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9||4-10||Win||100||18 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners have the best weighted on base average of any team in baseball in the past two weeks. This offense is on an absolute roll right now. The Mariners have scored 50 runs in their last 5 games.
Texas is one of the best parks in the majors for hitters. Martin Perez has a nice 3.12 ERA but look at his advanced metrics and you'll see he's due for regression. Perez has a 4.40 FIP and a 4.60 XFIP. He's been stranding runners at a very high rate so far this year, but that can't continue for the whole season.
Seattle starts Nate Karns and he's had a nice season so far. A closer look at who Karns has pitched against shows you that he hasn't faced many of the top lineups in the majors. This is a tough spot for him against a Rangers lineup that gets Rougned Odor back for this game.
The over is 10-0 in the Mariners last 10 games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Karns' last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 43-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-04-16||Mets -116 v. Marlins||6-4||Win||100||13 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Mets have been inconsistent on offense this year, but I have to take them at this short of a price against Justin Nicolino. Nicolino rarely misses bats, and that's a real negative for a guy who also walks batters more than the major league average. Nicolino isn't very good and the Marlins bullpen ranks in the bottom ten in most statistical categories.
Bartolo Colon may be pretty old, but he is crafty and he has been great against Miami. Colon has been amazing at Marlins Park. In 3 starts last year in Miami, Colon had a 1.90 ERA. The Marlins lineup has been struggling of late. Yelich and Stanton are back in the lineup now, but they are less than 100 percent and they haven't been seeing the ball well.
The Mets have the better starter and the much better bullpen. Take New York.
|06-04-16||A's v. Astros -120||Top||5-6||Win||100||16 h 17 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* Rich Hill was originally slated to start for Oakland here, but he's dealing with an injury and Kendall Graveman will start instead. Hill has been fantastic all year, but Graveman has been a big disappointment.
Graveman has a 5.09 ERA and his FIP is 5.39, so there has been no bad luck associated with his bad season thus far. Graveman is walking 3.74 batters per 9 innings, which is just way too high for a pitcher like him. He doesn't miss enough bats to overcome those kind of walk problems. Graveman also is giving up 1.70 home runs per nine innings, which is one of the highest marks in the majors. Houston is a power hitting team.
Collin McHugh has been better of late, and he is the better starting pitcher in this game. McHugh has 5 starts against the Oakland A's and in those starts he has a great 2.67 ERA. Oakland's lineup was weak to start with and now without Josh Reddick they are very weak.
Houston's bullpen is excellent, and the Astros have a big advantage there. The Astros also have the much better defense.
Oakland is 0-8 in Graveman's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. The A's are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts. Houston is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. A 16-0 angle.
This price is way too cheap. Take Houston big. TOP Rated play- MLB Game of the Week
|06-03-16||Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7||2-4||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Atlanta Braves have the worst offense in the majors. They have been the worst for the year overall and they have been the worst overall in the past two weeks.
Los Angeles' offense has been a big disappointment. The Dodgers have struggled badly to score at home, and they rank 26th in offensive production in the past two weeks.
Julio Teheran has thrown the ball well this year. Teheran has bumped up his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate this year. He isn't a guy who allows many home runs on average.
Kenta Maeda has been very good the Dodgers, and the Braves haven't seen him yet. He has a deceptive delivery that should be very hard on hitters the first time they see him.
The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the under.
|06-03-16||Nationals v. Reds OVER 8.5||2-7||Win||100||18 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals are a much better offense against left handed pitching. Cincinnati starts lefty Brandon Finnegan here. Finnegan has given up 7 home runs at home already this year, with warm weather in Cincinnati now the ball is flying very well.
Gio Gonzalez has been victimized by the home run ball of late, and the Reds do have some home run hitters. Like the Nationals, the Reds are much better against left handed pitching. Gonzalez doesn't have his best form right now, and Cincinnati should get scoring chances.
The Reds bullpen is the worst in the league by a huge margin, and anytime you have a number of only 8.5 at Great American with pitchers who aren't elite, I feel like the value is with the over.
Take the over.
|06-03-16||White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5||3-10||Win||100||16 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Friday Fast Cash* The Detroit Tigers offense has been on fire in the past couple weeks. This is a lineup that underachieved early in the year, but they have hit their stride of late. Detroit is going to continue to score runs in bunches quite often this year, because they really do have a bunch of great hitters in this lineup.
Jordan Zimmermann is coming off an injury and is likely to be limited in this one for Detroit. The Tigers bullpen isn't a good one, and extended work for them is good for the over.
Carlos Rodon puts too many guys on base, and I believe the Tigers can make him pay. After a great start, the White Sox bullpen has been terrible in recent weeks.
Take the over.
|06-02-16||Red Sox -122 v. Orioles||7-12||Loss||-122||17 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers made this line too short. Ubaldo Jimenez has been straight garbage in his last few outings. Jimenez has allowed 23 runs in his last 4 starts. He has no confidence right now, and Boston is the wrong team to be facing for a guy in that kind of shape.
Boston clearly has the best offense in baseball right now, and they are pounding out hits and runs on a nightly basis. They should get to Jimenez early and often here. While the Baltimore bullpen is good at the back end, they don't have many good long relievers for the middle of the game.
Rick Porcello has been better than expected this year. His consistency has been impressive. Porcello hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a single game this year.
The only thing keeping this from being a 5 star top rated play is that Jimenez has been capable of throwing an occasional gem in the past. I don't expect it here though. Boston is just too good to be pitching from the stretch against constantly. Take the Red Sox.
|06-02-16||Diamondbacks v. Astros UNDER 7.5||3-0||Win||100||12 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The home plate umpire is Ron Kulpa for this one, and he has the single best under record of any umpire in baseball over the past five years. He is a strike calling machine.
Dallas Keuchel has struggled with finding the zone this year, but Kulpa should help him a lot. Keuchel has always been much better at home than on the road as well.
Zack Greinke has struggled in Arizona this year, but on the road he has been good.
Both of these pitchers are better than they have pitched so far this year. Their early season struggles have given us a little bit higher total than we should see here.
It's get away day for these teams and that could mean some key players get a day off.
Take the under.
|06-01-16||Reds v. Rockies OVER 11||7-2||Loss||-101||18 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies scored 19 runs in the first game of the series on Monday. They scored 21 on Tuesday (Colorado scored 17 of them). I think they'll score a bunch again here.
John Lamb has gotten worse from last year to this season. There have been many rumors of Lamb battling injuries this year, but Cincinnati doesn't have any starting pitching depth now and he's still starting games for the team. Lamb has an ERA of 15.26 in two road starts this year. Now, he's headed to Coors Field. Ouch. If he gets hit around early, then the Reds bullpen is in for a long time. This bullpen is historically bad, and Colorado should pile on the runs against them.
Cincinnati's bats have been much better in the past week, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here too. Tyler Chatwood struggles at Coors Field, and this bullpen ranks 7th worst in the majors in ERA.
The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 games. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. A 28-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-01-16||Pirates v. Marlins OVER 8.5||2-3||Loss||-110||18 h 44 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Pittsburgh Pirates have been crushing left handed pitching this year. Only the Boston Red Sox have a higher weighted on base percentage against lefties than the Pirates. This Pirates team is full of underrated guys like Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco as well as Jung Ho Kang. Adam Conley has been pretty good this year, but the Pirates should pick up several runs in this one.
The Miami Marlins are averaging 3.78 runs per game against right handed pitching. They are averaging 4.99 runs per game against lefties. They face a hittable lefty in Jon Niese here. Niese was better in his last start, but he hasn't been consistent this year.
These two bullpens are both among the bottom seven bullpens in the majors. This number is too low. Take the over.
|06-01-16||Yankees +109 v. Blue Jays||0-7||Loss||-100||17 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka in this one, and he's been very consistent this year. Tanaka also has a very good track record against Toronto. In Tanaka's three starts in Toronto in his career, he has a stellar 2.14 ERA. Tanaka has been much better on the road than at home in his career.
Aaron Sanchez has been pretty good this year, but he isn't racking up all that many swinging strikes which is a concern. He faces a Yankees lineup that is much healthier now than they have been most of the season.
The Yankees have a massive advantage in the bullpen, and that could be crucial here. The Yankees bullpen is fresh and everyone should be available for this one. At this price, I'm taking the Yankees. Take New York.
|05-31-16||Tigers v. Angels OVER 8.5||9-11||Win||102||19 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Detroit Tigers have had the best offense in baseball in the past two weeks. This certainly doesn't surprise me, as it was only a matter of time until an offense like this was going to break out.
Hector Santiago has had some regression coming his way for a long time, and it hit last game in Texas. Santiago is a streaky guy, and I'm not sure he'll be able to slow down this red hot Tigers lineup.
Anibal Sanchez has been awful this year. Sanchez has allowed 4 runs or more in each of his last 5 starts and in 7 of his last 8 starts. His walk rate is way up this year, and opponents are squaring up the ball much more often on his pitches. Until Sanchez proves he is better than this, you have to look to fade him or take the over in his games.
The Angels offense has been much better in the past few weeks.
The over is 9-1 in Sanchez's 10 starts this year.
Take the over.
|05-31-16||Cardinals -140 v. Brewers||10-3||Win||100||18 h 51 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The St. Louis Cardinals start Mike Leake in this one, and he's been pitching extremely well of late. Leake has been a very streaky over the course of his career, and his two best months of the year are May and June. He's pitching his best at the same time again this year. Leake has allowed just 4 runs in his last 28 innings pitched.
Milwaukee's offense has been pretty good at home this year, but they will likely be without Ryan Braun for this one. Braun has a neck injury right now. Without Braun, this lineup isn't even close to as potent.
St. Louis has what is arguably the best offense in the National League. The Cardinals are first in the NL in weighted on base average on the road.
Wily Peralta has been crushed all year long. At Miller Park, opponents have a .390 average against Peralta this year. Peralta also has a 6.33 ERA in his last five starts against St. Louis.
The Cardinals are 42-20 in their last 62 in Milwaukee. The Brewers are 0-5 in Peralta's last 5 against the Cardinals. Take St. Louis.
|05-31-16||Pirates v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||1-3||Win||100||19 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jose Fernandez has rounded into form of late, and when he is pitching at his best, he is one of the best in the majors. While the Pirates offense has been very good of late, I'll be surprised if they get many against Fernandez.
Gerrit Cole hasn't been quite as good this year, but he has tremendous stuff. Cole is capable of shutting anyone down, and he has shown that in recent games. This Marlins offense is a mess right now with Yelich still getting back in the swing of things and Stanton out injured.
I believe this has the makings of a pitcher's duel between two young very good pitchers. Look for a lot of quick innings in this one.
Take the under.
|05-31-16||White Sox v. Mets -1.5||6-4||Loss||-100||19 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Mat Latos isn't very good anymore. He doesn't strike out enough guys, and he just doesn't have the high end stuff to fool big league hitters on a consistent basis.
Steven Matz has been excellent this year. He'll be pitching against a White Sox lineup that hasn't been good of late. The White Sox lose DH Avasail Garcia in this series in a NL park, and that hurts them quite a bit.
I'm not impressed at all with Robin Ventura and this White Sox staff, and the White Sox are just absolutely spiraling downward right now. I don't think facing Matz and a Mets team that should be very good this year is a good matchup for them.
Take New York -1.5.