|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-05-17||Pirates +178 v. Red Sox||0-3||Loss||-100||17 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML*
The best period of the year for underdogs has been the first ten games of the season. That makes sense with a lot of unknowns and teams not in the swing of things yet.
Pittsburgh ranked as the third best team in the majors in OBA against left handed pitching last year. Chris Sale is obviously not your average left handed pitcher, but the Pirates stand a better chance at getting to him than do most teams. The Pirates also have better lineup depth than most teams in the NL.
The Pirates are 20-8 in their last 28 games vs. a left handed starter. Jameson Taillon is a really nice pitching prospect for Pittsburgh. He's up against an excellent lineup here, but I think he can do enough to keep his team in the game.
At this price, I have to make the Pirates a play. I think this one should be about +145 or +150.
|04-05-17||Marlins +152 v. Nationals||4-6||Loss||-100||17 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Miami* Tanner Roark has a poor history against Miami. The Nationals are only 2-6 in his last 8 starts against Miami. They are only 1-4 in his last 5 home starts against Miami. Roark is a quality pitcher, but he isn't the type of guy that should be laying this much against a decent team.
Miami's lineup is just as good as Washington's. The Marlins should get a big season out of Christian Yelich this year, and that will be a big boost to them. They have a nice mixture of speed and power.
Washington has the edge in the bullpen, but it isn't a big edge. Barraclough is a guy that I expect to be excellent for Miami out of the pen this year.
I thought this line should be at +130 or so, and more than 20 cents of value has to be a play.
The best period of the year for underdogs has been the first ten games of the season. That makes sense with a lot of unknowns and teams not in the swing of things yet.
|04-04-17||Padres v. Dodgers -1.5||4-0||Loss||-110||19 h 0 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres are going to be horrendous this year. San Diego should lose 100 games or more this year. The Padres were torched yesterday, and I expect more of the same here.
Clayton Richard starts for the Padres, and the Dodgers lineup has combined to hit an amazing .468 against him in his career. Needless to say, he doesn't seem to match up well against the Dodgers.
Kenta Maeda has only allowed Padres hitters to hit .182 against him. Maeda was solid throughout the year for the Dodgers last year, and he does a good job inducing weak contact.
I was surprised this run line price wasn't higher. I'll gladly take it.
Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|04-04-17||Mariners v. Astros -140||1-2||Win||100||22 h 60 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Tuesday's Best Bet* The Houston Astros are a team I'm very high on for this year. Houston has the potential to be among the best teams in baseball. Lance McCullers has tremendous home splits in his career, and McCullers has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
McCullers has a 2.12 ERA in his career at home (4.84 on the road). McCullers is backed by one of the better bullpens in the majors. Houston is also tremendous defensively.
Hisashi Iwakuma isn't the pitcher he once was, and Houston's hitters have a combined .338 average against him all time. Iwakuma is on the decline and McCullers is on his way up.
Houston is better offensively. They have the better starter. They have the better bullpen.
I'll lay it with Houston on Tuesday.
|04-04-17||Indians v. Rangers OVER 8.5||4-3||Loss||-112||17 h 56 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION * The Cleveland Indians showed off their improved offense last night in a come from behind win in Texas. Edwin Encarnacion was huge with a key home run. He should fit brilliantly into this lineup. Cleveland has star Francisco Lindor in the second spot and I expect him to be terrific this year.
Texas has a deep lineup again this year. The Rangers can always pile up the runs on their home field. This is a hitter's park and this team will take advantage of it this year.
Carlos Carrasco had a whopping 10.80 ERA in spring training this year. I don't put a lot of stock in those stats, but Carrasco is coming off injury problems and that suggests some possible issues still for the righty. Carrasco has a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings pitched in Texas.
Martin Perez has an awful 12.46 ERA in three appearances against the Indians. Perez isn't a pitcher I'm high on, and I think Cleveland can put up a pretty big number here.
Early in the season over the last decade, the over has done well, and that is especially true in warm weather cities.
Take the over.
|04-03-17||Angels v. A's OVER 8||2-4||Loss||-105||19 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Opening Day Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics meet in the season opener on Monday night.
The over has been very good in the first ten games of the season in the past five years. That has been especially true in games with a total of 8 or lower and a gametime temperature of 55 degrees or warmer. These games have gone over at a clip of about 58% in the past five years. In a large sample size, that's definitely a good number.
The Angels and A's are both subpar defensively. I don't think enough importance is put on defense and how it changes totals. Oakland may be the worst defense in the majors, and that will lead to more opportunities for scoring.
Neither team has a tremendous lineup, but both of them are better than last year. These bullpens are also no better than average.
Nolasco is a worse than league average pitcher and Graveman is no better than league average at this stage in his career.
Take the over here.
|04-03-17||Pirates +153 v. Red Sox||3-5||Loss||-100||12 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a team that I believe is undervalued coming into the season. While Pittsburgh obviously doesn't have the lineup that Boston has, the Pirates lineup is above average.
Gregory Polanco appears ready to take the next step to being a superstar, and Starling Marte has already been excellent. Andrew McCutchen had a down year last year, but I think he has some more very good years left in him.
Gerrit Cole has tremendous stuff and he is healthier now than he was last year. The Pirates expect a lot out of him, and I think he'll have a good season.
Rick Porcello is a good pitcher, but nothing better. Porcello doesn't have the upside that Cole has. Don't let Porcello winning the Cy Young last year make you think he is elite. He got that one because of his wins, but his peripheral stats weren't nearly as good as many other starters.
Long-term the underdogs have done well in the first few weeks of the MLB season. This is a dog with too much value for me to pass.
|10-28-16||Indians v. Cubs OVER 7.5||1-0||Loss||-115||29 h 28 m||Show|
*4 Star World Series Game 3 Total DOMINATION* Wind plays a bigger role at Wrigley Field than at any other field in the majors. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 20 miles per hour during this game. With a mild temperature in the low 60's, the ball should be flying very well in Chicago on Friday night.
Josh Tomlin has had home run ball issues all season. He allowed nearly 2 homers for every 9 innings pitched, one of the highest marks in the majors. The Cubs certainly have plenty of guys with power. I think Tomlin will get hit around in this spot. He is a gritty pitcher, but his stuff is subpar, and with the wind this way it is a big negative for him.
Kyle Hendricks is definitely a good pitcher, but more than half of the batted balls off of him are fly balls. The wind should hurt him as well.
A total this low with weather like this in Wrigley is almost unheard of. Take the over here.
|10-19-16||Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5||3-0||Loss||-100||14 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Blue Jays have been terrific against left handed pitching in the last couple years. Toronto has a .330 OBP this season against lefties. They are in a unique spot here as they face Indians rookie lefty Ryan Merritt in this game. Merritt has made one start in his MLB career. He started 9/30 against KC in a game that didn't mean anything to either team and allowed 1 run in 5 innings.
He'll be pitching on a whole different stage here. Toronto's home crowd is a rowdy bunch, and it is win or go home for the Blue Jays. I'll be surprised if the rookie lefty is able to throw well in this situation. It is a lot to ask of a youngster with almost no experience.
Marco Estrada pitched great in his loss in game one. Estrada has a long history of throwing his best late in the year. In fact, in his career Estrada has a 2.98 ERA in the months of September and October, and that is easily his best of any period throughout the season.
The Blue Jays obviously need this game more than the Indians do. I don't think Toronto wins the series, but I do think they send it back to Cleveland.
The moneyline is too expensive for me, so I'm on the run line. Take Toronto -1.5.
|10-14-16||Blue Jays v. Indians -128||0-2||Win||100||31 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star Blue Jays/Indians Game 1 CASH* The Cleveland Indians host the Toronto Blue Jays in game one of the ALCS on Friday night. I think this game is more important for the Indians than it is the Blue Jays. Why? The Indians have very little pitching depth in their rotation right now. With injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, the pressure is on Corey Kluber in this game. Carrasco is out for the series. Salazar is only available in short innings (likely out of the bullpen).
All of this means the Indians are at a real disadvantage in games three and four. The Blue Jays have a deeper rotation, and the Indians know that. Why do I consider this a positive? Because I think this is a great spot for Kluber, who has gotten stronger late in the season, to step up and have a huge game for his team. The Indians are likely to pitch him deep into this game, and I expect Francona to use his best bullpen guys (Miller and Allen) in game one if he has the opportunity. The Indians have the managerial edge in this series, and they have the better bullpen.
Marco Estrada hasn't pitched in these huge situations in the past, and I don't trust him nearly as much as Kluber. The Indians have been a great offense at home all year. I'll lay the short price with the home team. Take Cleveland.
|10-05-16||Giants -105 v. Mets||3-0||Win||100||19 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Giants/Mets CASH* The New York Mets have had a nice season. They lost all kinds of key pieces, but were still able to get to this game. Still, I think the Mets youth and their flaws could show in this one game playoff.
The San Francisco Giants have a history of winning on the road in the postseason. They have a history of winning on the road in the postseason in this Wild Card game. They also have a history of just in general knowing how to win in October. Bruce Bochy is a great manager and I trust him to push the right buttons here.
Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard is an elite pitching matchup. Bumgarner is 4-0 in four starts against the Mets at Citi Field. He has allowed just 2 runs in 29 innings pitched at the park. Syndergaard has a 3.66 ERA in three starts against San Francisco.
Syndergaard is pitching with a bone spur in his elbow, and his strikeout rate is down late in the season. I don't like betting against Syndergaard, but I believe the value is going against the Mets in this game.
Syndergaard's key weakness is allowing stolen bases. He allowed 48 stolen bases this year, which was most in the majors. Expect the Giants to take advantage of that in this game, and I think that could be the difference.
The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts against the Mets. The Giants are 35-17 in their last 52 playoff games. They are 9-3 in their last 12 road playoff games. Take San Francisco.
|09-28-16||A's v. Angels -128||6-8||Win||100||20 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Oakland Athletics are hapless on offense. Oakland has scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. The Los Angeles Angels still have a few good hitters in their lineup and the Angels should be expected to score here.
Oakland starts Sonny Gray here, but local reporters have said he is only expected to pitch one or two innings. That means a bullpen game for the A's, and this A's bullpen is pretty mediocre. The A's bullpen has been used quite a bit already in the past week.
Alex Meyer starts for the Angels, and he has a high upside. Meyer has averaged 10 or more strikeouts per nine innings throughout his time in the minors, and he has kept that going in his short time in the majors. Meyer misses a lot of bats. He has been better in his last couple starts, and I see this as a good opportunity for him to finish the season on a strong note against a weak Oakland lineup.
The Angels are playing well at the end of the season. They are 6-1 in their last 7 games. The A's are 0-4 in Gray's last 4 starts vs. the Angels. The A's are 1-5 in their last 6 meetings with the Angels in LA.
Take the Angels here.
|09-25-16||Phillies v. Mets OVER 8.5||0-17||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have both seen their lineups heat up of late. These two have been playing some really high scoring games against each other. How high? 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams have seen at least 13 runs scored in the game! In this series so far it has been 9-8, 10-5, and 10-8.
Jake Thompson is struggling for the Phillies. Thompson starts here and he has a 5.62 ERA and a 5.93 FIP on the year. The Mets are swinging with confidence now and I think they get to him in this one. Thompson doesn't pitch deep in the game very often and this Phillies bullpen has the second worst ERA in baseball in the past month.
Robert Gsellman has pitched pretty well in the majors so far for the Mets. Still, he had a 5.73 ERA and a 5.20 FIP in Triple A this year. I think he is due for regression. He struggled in his one outing against the Phillies this season as well.
The over is 4-0-2 in the Phillies last 6. The over is 66-30-5 in the last 101 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.
|09-23-16||Giants -136 v. Padres||2-7||Loss||-136||20 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Friday Night MONEY* I must admit, I never really expected myself to be laying this price on Albert Suarez, but in this spot I believe it is justified. The Giants are half a game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot in the NL. San Francisco is a team who has proven over they can win when it matters most late in the season.
While they haven't played well since the break, there is still time for them to heat up. The Giants are better than they have played, and here they are against an inferior opponent. Edwin Jackson is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, so Suarez gives the Giants a small advantage. The Giants and Padres bullpens are similar. The big positives for the Giants are their defense and their offense. This San Francisco lineup has way more pop than does the Padres lineup.
What does this game mean to San Diego? It means everything to San Francisco. The fact that the Giants have played poorly of late gives us a better price in a must win situation.
The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Padres are 1-5 in Jackson's last 6 starts. Take San Francisco.
|09-21-16||Yankees -123 v. Rays||11-5||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The New York Yankees need to win every time they step on the field now. They have no room for error. If you are looking to win one game and you are the New York Yankees, the perfect man to have on the mound is Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has been superb of late for the team.
It also helps a lot that Tanaka is up against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tanaka hasn't allowed a single run in 14 innings pitched in Tampa Bay in his career. Tanaka has consistently been working deep into the game, and he'll be up against a really bad Tampa Bay lineup in this one.
Alex Cobb starts for the Rays here. While he has a lot of potential, his advanced statistics haven't been very good in his first three starts back from an injury. Additionally, he has hit hard in Triple A in his rehab starts, which still worries me a bit.
The Yankees have a clear cut bullpen advantage over the Rays, who have had one of the worst bullpens in the past month.
The Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in Tanaka's last 7 starts against the Rays. The Yankees are 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. The Yankees are 7-0 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. An 18-0 angle. Take the Yankees here.
|09-21-16||White Sox v. Phillies UNDER 7.5||3-8||Loss||-120||19 h 10 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In the past five years, Doug Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than any other umpire in the majors. It's no surprise then that he is a very good under umpire. Eddings is behind home plate for this one.
Chris Sale is the starter for the White Sox in this one. Sale has had another very good season, and he's a up against a weak hitting Phillies lineup. Sale consistently pitches deep into the game, and I see him doing that again in this one. Sale has a very good 2.87 career ERA with Eddings behind home plate.
Jerad Eickhoff has lost a lot of games, but he hasn't pitched poorly for the Phillies. Eickhoff doesn't get run support. Eickhoff has a solid 3.74 ERA this year, and his career ERA at home is 3.30. He faces a White Sox lineup that has struggled against right handed pitching all year.
The under is 27-12-2 in Eddings' last 41 interleague games behind the plate. Take the under.
|09-20-16||Royals v. Indians OVER 9||1-2||Loss||-103||16 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Edinson Volquez has been absolutely awful in the last couple months. Volquez has allowed 4 runs or more in 9 of his last 10 starts. That's just remarkably bad, and he goes up against a Cleveland Indians lineup that has been really good at home this year. The over is 45-27-3 in the Indians home games this year.
How has Volquez been in Cleveland? Terrible. Volquez has an 8.51 ERA in five career starts at Cleveland. Can we really expect him to turn it around here? I don't have any reason to think he will.
Josh Tomlin has been terrible of late as well. The home run has been a big problem for Tomlin. The Royals have been swinging the bat really well of late, and Tomlin has a 4.66 ERA against Kansas City in his career. Tomlin has allowed 6 runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts.
The over is 4-0-1 in the Royals last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 during game one of a series. The over is 5-0 in Volquez's last 5 Tuesday starts. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 35-0 angle. Take the over.
|09-18-16||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10||9-10||Loss||-110||13 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Robbie Ray has been throwing the ball extremely well of late. Ray has a FIP of 3.60 or lower in seven straight games. He has been racking up the strikeouts. Ray has 41 strikeouts in his last five starts.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a combined .198 average against Robbie Ray. While the Dodgers are great against right handed pitching, they have been really weak against lefties all year. The Dodgers average 4.88 runs per game against righties and 3.44 runs per game against lefties. The Dodgers rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching.
The Dodgers start Jose De Leon here. De Leon is one of the team's best pitching prospects and he has been sustaining very high strikeout rates in the minors. He is punching out 12 batters per nine innings over the long run. That will go down some in the big leagues, but his swing and miss rate makes me high on his potential.
Ryan Blakeney is behind the plate, and in all 3 games he has been behind the plate for with a total of 10 or higher this year, the under has cashed in.
The under is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers last 7 games following a win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 3-0-1 in the Dbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 24-0 angle.
Take the under.
|09-17-16||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 10.5||6-2||Loss||-100||6 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Shelby Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year. Miller has a 7.12 ERA on the season. He has been giving up hard contact all year. Last year, 26.9% of opponents batted balls were hard contact. This year it is up to 35.0%. That's a huge change and it tells you a lot. Miller has struggled with his command both inside and outside of the strike zone.
The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been much better in the second half of the season, and they have been crushing right handed pitching. Add in the fact that Arizona has the single worst bullpen in baseball now, and I see a real chance for the Dodgers to put up a big number here.
Brock Stewart is a pretty good prospect for the Dodgers, but in his two road starts this year he has allowed 14 runs in just 9 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks offense can score runs at home, and I see Stewart getting into some trouble here.
The over is 37-14-1 in the DBacks last 52 home games. The Chase Field roof is slated to be open, which is a big help for the over. Jerry Meals is behind home plate here, and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball. Take the over.
|09-16-16||A's v. Rangers -1.5||6-7||Loss||-100||18 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Friday Night MONEYMAKER* The Texas Rangers have been money in the bank when Cole Hamels is on the mound. They are 32-9 in his last 41 starts. The Rangers are 16-3 in his last 19 home starts. Texas knows how important home field advantage is, so don't expect to see them taking their foot off the gas this early.
Oakland is coming off a four-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals. The A's should be commended for their performance in that series, but they should get a wakeup call here in Texas. The Rangers are 47-22 at home this year, and Texas is a much better team than the Royals this year.
Oakland played in Kansas City last night, while Texas had the day off. Kendall Graveman takes the mound for the A's, and in two starts against Texas he has a 7.75 ERA. Cole Hamels has a 2.18 ERA in his three starts against the A's in his career.
This is a good price on the home team on the run line. Take Texas -1.5.
|09-13-16||Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||4-11||Win||104||20 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The roof at Chase Field will be open for this one, and that's great news for the over. This is a totally different park when the roof is open. With the hot temperatures (mid 90's) and low humidity, the ball travels extremely well with the roof open here.
Jorge De La Rosa has a 4.62 ERA at Arizona. De La Rosa is on the downside of his career, and he is up against an Arizona team that has hit left handers about as well as any team in baseball this season.
Robbie Ray has a 5.24 ERA at home in his career. His road ERA is only 3.68. Ray has struggled when pitching at Chase Field, and the Rockies still have a good lineup.
The Diamondbacks have a team on base percentage of .404 against De La Rosa. The Rockies have a .414 OBP against Ray.
These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see a bunch of runs scored late in this game.
The over is 4-0 in De La Rosa's last 4 starts vs. DBacks. The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over.
|09-11-16||Cubs v. Astros +1.5||9-5||Loss||-117||16 h 17 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Chicago Cubs don't have as much to play for right now as the Houston Astros. Chicago will finish with the best record in the National League barring a massive collapse. They are definitely in the playoffs. Houston is on the outside looking in, and they have been a very good home team the last couple years.
Mike Fiers is a guy with some dramatic home/road splits. At home, Fiers is a very solid pitcher. In his last four starts at home, he has a FIP of 2.50 or lower. Jake Arrieta has been good this year, but he certainly hasn't been as dominant as he was a year ago.
The Astros are 7-1 in Fiers' last 8 home starts, and yet we are getting this cheap of a price on the Astros +1.5 line.
This game means more to Houston than it means to the Cubs. Houston is a young team that finished strong last year, and I see them finishing strong for a second straight year. Take Houston +1.5.
|09-10-16||Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5||6-5||Win||100||22 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In Edinson Volquez and James Shields we have a matchup of two starting pitchers who are capable of getting blasted at any given time. The opposition can put up a 5 or 6 spot in an inning and it isn't a big surprise.
Volquez has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 8 starts. He's giving up a bunch of hard hit balls, and there's no reason to expect it to change here. The White Sox have shown some signs of life offensively in recent weeks.
James Shields has a 6.07 ERA on the year and a 6.22 FIP. Shields has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. He has been as bad as anyone in baseball in the last few months. The Royals have been good offensively on the road of late.
The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 10-15 mph. Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is a solid over umpire. Take the over here.
|09-09-16||Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 6.5||1-4||Win||100||20 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kershaw was having arguably the best season of his amazing career before going down with an injury. He pitched great in his rehab start, and I see no reason to expect him to struggle here.
Kershaw has made three career starts in Miami against the Marlins and has a sparkling 1.27 ERA. The Marlins haven't been consistent at the plate of late. While Kershaw won't pitch too deep into the game here, the Dodgers bullpen has been very good in the second half of the season.
Jose Fernandez counters for the Miami Marlins. Fernandez is one of the top three pitchers in baseball in my book. When he is pitching at home, his numbers are off the chart good. In 40 career starts at home, Fernandez has a 1.57 ERA. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in two home starts against the Dodgers in his career.
The under is 26-10-1 in Kershaw's last 37 starts. The under is 9-4 in Fernandez's last 13 home starts. A pitcher's duel here. Take the under.
|09-07-16||Mets v. Reds UNDER 8.5||6-3||Loss||-115||13 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets start Noah Syndergaard in this one. Syndergaard went through a period of time where he seemed to have less than his best stuff, but lately he has been dealing again. Syndergaard has allowed a grand total of 7 hits in his last three starts. Syndergaard has allowed only 3 runs in those three starts.
Syndergaard will be up against a weak Cincinnati Reds offense in this one. Joey Votto is hitting the cover off the ball, but this offense outside of him just isn't very good. Billy Hamilton being out hurts the Reds a great deal. In his career, Syndergaard has zero walks and 13 strikeouts against the Reds. The Cincinnati hitters have a career .163 average against him.
Anthony DeSclafani has been excellent this year for the Reds. DeSclafani has made 16 starts this year, and he has allowd 3 runs or less in 13 of those 16 starts. He has allowed just two runs in his last 16 innings pitched.
While neither bullpen is very good, both of these starters have a long history of pitching deep into the game.
Mark Ripperger is the umpire here, and he is a good under umpire with a high strikeout/walk rate.
The under is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Mets last 5 games overall. Take the under.
|09-06-16||Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8.5||9-7||Win||100||17 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates have two of the deeper lineups in the National League. Pittsburgh is tanking right now. The Pirates have lost 7 straight games. They won't be back in the postseason this year. The Cardinals are in a Wild Card spot, and they have to keep winning with the Mets right on their heels.
St. Louis has the number two rated offense in baseball (behind only the Cubs) when it comes to weighted on base average away from home. Pittsburgh has allowed 29 runs in their last three games. The Pirates have given up 6 runs or more in six of their last nine contests. St. Louis is more than capable of putting up a big number vs. Ryan Vogelsong and the Pirates bullpen.
Vogelsong is a below average pitcher who has the highest walk rate of his career so far this year. His FIP and XFIP are more than a run higher than his ERA, so regression should be coming.
Luke Weaver has faced weak lineups in 3 of his first 4 starts in the majors, and this Pirates lineup is a solid one.
Both bullpens are not pitching well down the stretch. Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is a clear over umpire.
The over is 14-5 in the Cardinals last 19 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 36-17-2 in the Pirates last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the over.
|09-05-16||Rangers -105 v. Mariners||6-14||Loss||-105||16 h 39 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Cole Hamels has a long history of pitching his best at the end of the season. Hamels has a 3.52 ERA in the first half of the season and a 2.97 ERA in the second half of the season. Hamels had a rare bad outing in his last start. That was against Seattle. I see him as a veteran who has a great chance of bouncing back as he pitches in a pitcher-friendly park here in Seattle. The Mariners are significantly worse offensively against lefties compared to right handed pitching. Texas has won 31 of Cole Hamels' last 39 starts.
The Seattle Mariners appear to be melting down at the very worst time. Seattle has fallen out of the Wild Card spot, and they are about to lose touch. They have lost seven of their last eight games overall.
Felix Hernandez isn't the pitcher he used to be. Hernandez has had some better outings of late, but his advanced stats suggest he still isn't throwing the ball all that well. He has a FIP of 4.38 or higher in six of his last nine starts. This is a good Rangers lineup.
The Rangers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games. They are 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 Monday starts. The Rangers are 6-0 in Hamels' last 6 starts vs. Seattle. A 21-0 angle. Take Texas.
|09-04-16||Tigers v. Royals OVER 8.5||6-5||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in baseball. Detroit got all kinds of people on base yesterday against Yordano Ventura and the Royals, and didn't manage to ever come up with the big hit. They should be able to get a lot of runners on base in this one against Edinson Volquez. It isn't likely that they'll leave the bases packed so often again on Sunday.
To say that Volquez has struggled of late is an understatement. Volquez had a 6.37 ERA in August. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Daniel Norris starts for the Tigers. Norris goes against a Royals lineup that hits .270 against lefties (only .254 against righties). The Royals have scored 37 runs in their last 6 games, and they haven't scored less than 4 runs in any of those contests.
The umpire here is an over umpire, and we have the wind blowing out at 10 mph on a warm day in Kansas City. Take the over.
|09-03-16||Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12||9-4||Win||100||18 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen has been the worst in baseball in the past 30 days, and it hasn't even been close. Colorado's bullpen has 6.93 ERA in the past 14 days. These are two really tired and bad bullpens, and they are meet at Coors Field on Saturday night.
The second really important factor here is the home plate umpire Tom Woodring. Woodring actually has the single lowest strikes called percentage of any umpire in my database in the past five years. This guy is a great over umpire.
Tyler Chatwood has a 5.43 ERA at home this year. He is coming off the DL, and likely won't pitch too deep into the game. Braden Shipley is making his first career start at Coors Field, and this is a really tough situation for him.
These two lineups are more than capable of blowing up for huge innings here.
The last six contests between these two teams have finished with at least 13 runs in them. This number is very high, but it still isn't high enough.
Take the over.
|08-31-16||Yankees v. Royals -112||5-4||Loss||-112||17 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Kansas City Royals start Ian Kennedy in this game. Kennedy has a long history of pitching his best baseball late in the season. He is holding true to form so far this year. In his last six starts, Kennedy hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of those starts. In five of the six, he has allowed one run or less. He has been extremely consistent, and I have to expect a good performance here. In his career, Kennedy's ERA is almost a full run lower in the second half of the season as compared to the first half.
Luis Cessa projects as a number four or five starter in the majors. Cessa has made only two starts in the majors, and this is a difficult spot for him. This is a huge game for both of these teams, as they are battling it out for position in the AL Wildcard race. Cessa isn't likely to pitch deep into the game, and the Yankees bullpen is at a severe disadvantage to the Royals. Kansas City's bullpen ERA in the past 14 days is 0.83.
The Royals are 48-22 in their last 70 home games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. Barely better than even money at home against a rookie starting pitcher? I have to take the home team here. Take Kansas City.
|08-30-16||Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5||4-5||Loss||-112||16 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I had the over in last night's game between these two, and that pick didn't work at all. It finished 1-0 in 10 innings. Way off in that one. I'm 8-1 in my last 9 and I'm looking to get a ninth winner in ten selections as I go back to the over once again here.
There are plenty of reasons for this play. Minnesota's pitching staff is absolutely gassed, and they are starting a guy who hasn't started in the majors since 2013. He is a mediocre Triple A guy, and he's unlikely to be able to quiet the Cleveland bats. Cleveland has been very good this year against lefties, and the Indians have been great offensively at home. The over is 37-23-3 in the Indians 63 home games this year.
Josh Tomlin starts for the Indians and he has been really bad of late. Tomlin has allowed 6 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. He hasn't made it through five full innings in any of those outings either. Tomlin is giving up the home run ball at a record pace. He is allowing 3.24 HR's per nine innings in the month of August. In his career, Tomlin has been much worse in the second half of the season on a consistent basis.
These two offenses were quiet last night, but I think they'll be back to hitting again here. An over umpire behind the plate is another bonus in this one.
The over is 40-14-4 in the Twins last 58 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 21-8-3 in Tomlin's last 32 starts. Take the over.
|08-29-16||Twins v. Indians OVER 9||0-1||Loss||-110||25 h 57 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Cleveland Indians come home after a rough road trip, and they'll look to get back on track here. Minnesota appears to have given up on the season, and the Indians need to take advantage of the Twins in this series.
Minnesota's offense is still scoring runs. The Twins have scored 26 runs in their last four games. The crazy part is they didn't win any of those four games. Minnesota has lost 10 straight games overall. The Twins have allowed 8 runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Hector Santiago is on the mound for them against Cleveland in this one, and he is more than capable of giving up a big number. Santiago enters with a 5.16 ERA and a 5.35 FIP.
The Twins bullpen is on fumes right now, and Santiago has never been a guy to work deep into the game. If he gets pulled early here, there isn't likely to be much in the way of "relief" coming from the bullpen.
Trevor Bauer starts for the Indians here. Bauer has been inconsistent throughout his career. There are a few numbers that jump out at me about him though. Bauer has a career 3.78 ERA in the first half of the season and a 5.16 ERA in the second half of the season. He's been worse in the past month again this year.
Bauer has also struggled against the Twins in his career. In 10 starts against Minnesota, he has a 5.86 ERA.
The over is 4-0 in Santiago's last 4 starts. The over is 58-24-4 in the Twins last 86 games. The over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Cleveland between these two teams. Take the over.
|08-28-16||Indians v. Rangers +102||1-2||Win||102||13 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Texas Rangers have been undervalued all year, and I believe they are again in this one. Danny Salazar obviously has a really high upside, but he has had some serious trouble with his command of late. Salazar has a ridiculous 19.29 ERA in the month of August. He has walked 10 guys in his last 11 innings pitched. He has also allowed 4 home runs in those 11 innings. In Salazar's only start of his career in Texas, he allowed 7 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings (in 2015). This time he'll face a much better Rangers lineup.
Texas starts Derek Holland. Holland has a 2.64 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Indians. Cleveland is worn out after a long road trip, and this is a difficult spot for them. This is the type of game where it could be tough for the Indians to get ready to go. Holland pitched very well in his first game back from the DL, and I see him pitching well enough here.
The Rangers are 37-18 in Holland's last 55 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 6-2 in Holland's last 8 starts vs. Cleveland. Take Texas.
|08-28-16||Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 9.5||1-4||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Carlos Rodon has a 2.61 ERA since the All Star break. Rodon has great stuff, and he has the potential to be very good. He is starting to show that potential on a more consistent basis lately. Rodon has had a FIP of 3.32 or lower in each of his last four starts, so it has been no fluke.
The Mariners have a great lineup against right handed pitching, but they are only mediocre against lefties. I'll look for Rodon to pitch well in this one.
The Chicago White Sox have struggled all year against right handed pitching. Taijuan Walker is inconsistent, but he has a high upside and I think he can keep the White Sox in check here.
A big help in this game is umpire John Hirschbeck, who is a good under umpire. The weather is also good for an under with moderate temperatures and winds blowing in from center.
The under is 7-0 in Rodon's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under.
|08-28-16||Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5||6-9||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays have scored 9, 9, 15, and 8 runs in their last four home contests against the Minnesota Twins. The Twins have allowed a minimum of 8 runs in their last four games, and in 5 of their last 6. This Twins team appears to have packed it in for the season. They are scoring runs, but they aren't competitive because their pitching staff has been awful. The Twins bullpen is totally gassed right now, and that spells trouble against a Jays lineup that is just getting healthy.
Kyle Gibson is giving up 1.35 homers per nine innings on the road, and this Jays lineup has a ton of power. Gibson also walks nearly 4 per nine innings on the road. Gibson has a career 5.36 ERA in the second half of the season. His career ERA in August is 5.87. Toronto should put up a big number again here.
Minnesota's offense has been hot of late. The Twins should be able to score a few off R.A. Dickey in this one.
Take the over.
|08-27-16||Reds -104 v. Diamondbacks||13-0||Win||100||18 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Cincinnati Reds should have won Friday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but they failed to convert with men in scoring position. The Reds will look to get back on track with Anthony DeSclafani on the hill on Saturday. DeSclafani has been very consistently good this year. While he is due for some regression from his current level, DeSclafani is a better than average big league pitcher. He gives the Reds a solid six innings almost every time out.
DeSclafani has allowed 3 runs or less in all but 3 of his 14 starts so far this year. DeSclafani has a career road ERA of 3.16. His best work has come on the road.
Zack Godley starts for the Diamondbacks in this one. Godley is way too inconsistent for me. This is a guy who was hit very hard by this Reds lineup in Cincinnati not very long ago. Godley also struggles to go deep into the game, which is a major problem.
The Reds bullpen has been significantly better of late (it still isn't very good), but the Diamondbacks bullpen has been atrocious in the past month. How bad? Arizona has a 6.80 ERA from their bullpen in the past 30 days. The Reds have a 3.67 bullpen ERA in the past month.
The Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Cincinnati is 4-0 in DeSclafani's last 4 starts following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 16-35 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Cincinnati.
|08-26-16||Cubs -110 v. Dodgers||6-4||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star Cubs/Dodgers CASH* The Chicago Cubs are 81-45 on the year. Quite frankly, there aren't many times that we're going to have a chance to take them at -110. The Dodgers are obviously a good team as well, but they have a large flaw, and that is their inability to hit left-handed pitching.
The Dodgers rank 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. That's only better than the Phillies and the Braves. They have a losing record on the year against left-handed started pitching. While Mike Montgomery isn't a great starter, I do think he is a league average type of guy, and those guys have given the Dodgers fits this year when they are lefties.
Bud Norris has been good so far at Dodger Stadium, but his issues with free passes could really bite him against this lineup. Norris shut down the Rays and Rockies at home, but it won't be as easy to do it against the Cubs.
The Cubs bullpen would have been their one disadvantage against the Dodgers a month ago, but with Chapman in the fold and the other guys pitching well, I see the bullpen as a wash now.
The Cubs are 22-5 in their last 27 games. They are 13-3 in their last 16 after a day off. Take the Cubs.
|08-26-16||Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5||3-1||Win||100||18 h 8 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Felix Hernandez struggled earlier this year, but he has been throwing the ball significantly better since coming off the disabled list. Hernandez has improved his control quite a bit in his last few outings. The White Sox offense has been decent against lefties this year, but they are poor against right handed pitching.
Chris Sale has pitched into some bad luck in recent outings. If you look at his FIP from his last few outings, it has been 2.65 or lower in his last four straight outings. Sale has a great strikeout/walk rate of late, and that is very important to me. He'll face a Seattle team that is relatively weak against lefties. Kyle Seager is questionable for this one, and Nelson Cruz is less than 100 percent. While the White Sox pen is really bad, I'm counting on Sale to go deep into this one.
Vic Carapazza is behind the plate here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the game, so that is a big boost.
The under is 16-7 in Sale's last 23 home starts. Take the under.
|08-26-16||Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5||8-15||Win||106||16 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Minnesota Twins appear to have packed it up for the season. Minnesota played some pretty good baseball for a stretch of time right around the All Star break, but they have been mailing it in of late. Now, they go to take on a Blue Jays team who has to be upset with losing a couple games to the Angels in their most recent series.
Pat Dean is on the mound for the Twins here. Dean had a 5.56 ERA in 16 starts at Triple A this year. Dean has a 5.48 ERA in the majors so far. Dean only struck out 5 batters per nine innings in Triple A, and that's a big red flag. This Toronto offense is very good against lefties, and they will be even better now with Jose Bautista back in the lineup.
Francisco Liriano is a streaky pitcher and he pitched extremely well in his last start. The Blue Jays have a big bullpen advantage over the Twins, and they definitely have a big offensive edge. At plus money, I'm on Toronto -1.5 here.
|08-25-16||Indians v. Rangers -148||Top||0-9||Win||100||18 h 56 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB Moneyline TOP Play of the MONTH* The Cleveland Indians are coming off a really disappointing series in Oakland. Things don't get any easier for them here. They go to take on a Texas Rangers team that has been amazing at home this year.
Texas starts Cole Hamels in this game. Hamels is a guy who has consistently gotten much better late in the season. He pitches his best baseball this time of the year. The statistics definitely prove this one. Hamels has a career 3.52 ERA in the first half of the season and a 2.95 ERA in the second half of the season. August has been his single best month of the year in his career.
Josh Tomlin starts for the Indians, and to say he has been bad this month is a major understatement. He has been getting rocked of late. In the month of August alone, 47.5% of the balls hit off Tomlin have been hard hits. Hitters are squaring up the ball really well against him, and that has meant a ton of home runs. Tomlin has allowed five home runs in his last two starts, and now he faces a power hitting team in a very hitter-friendly park. It's hard to see him slowing down this Rangers offense here.
The Rangers are 14-3 in Hamels last 17 home starts. They are 29-8 in his last 37 starts. I'm not one to lay this kind of price often at all, but I think it is still cheap in this spot. Take Texas big.
|08-25-16||Royals v. Marlins -121||5-2||Loss||-121||5 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Miami Marlins start Tom Koehler in this one. Koehler has been pitching about as well as ever in his last several games. Koehler has always been much better at home. So far this year, Koehler has a solid 3.36 ERA at home (it was 3.29 last year as well). In his last six starts, he hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those games. In 4 of the 6, he has allowed one run or less.
Edinson Volquez is on the mound for the Royals. Volquez has been awful of late. He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in each of his last 5 starts. He has given up 6 home runs during this span as well. Volquez has allowed double the home run rate on the road as he has at home. He also walks more guys on the road than he does at home.
The Royals had a nice run, but the streak was broken last night, and the Royals are still getting too much love from the oddsmakers based on their recent run. The Marlins have a solid lineup even without Stanton.
50% of the tickets so far are on the Marlins, but 79% of the money, so this looks like a sharp play to me. I'll take the value price on the home team. Take Miami.
|08-25-16||Tigers +100 v. Twins||8-5||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers are only 3 games back in the AL Wildcard race. They actually still have some chance in the AL Central at 5.5 back as well. Detroit's lineup is so good, and they are hitting the cover off the ball in Minnesota in this series.
I'm always cautious to take a play like this one that almost looks too good to be true, but I believe Minnesota looks like a team that is packing it in for the season. The Twins fought for a while, but now it is getting later in the season and the team appears ready for the offseason as much as anyone in baseball.
Daniel Norris and Jose Berrios are two youngsters who have a high upside, but they both have struggled in the majors thus far. In Berrios' only career start against Detroit, he allowed 7 runs in only 2/3 of an inning of work. That can't give him much confidence coming into this game. Norris has been somewhat better of late, and he knows he has a great offense supporting him.
The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 games in Minnesota. The Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 13-0 trend. Take Detroit.
|08-24-16||Phillies v. White Sox OVER 9.5||5-3||Loss||-110||17 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* James Shields has been absolutely abysmal of late. Shields has allowed a ridiculous 28 runs in just 14 innings pitched in his last four starts. Shields has walked 8 guys and struck out only five in those games. His game by game FIP has been 49.65, 12.81, and 12.15 in his last three starts. Those numbers look like numbers from a video game.
While I don't count the Phillies as a good offense at all, they have certainly been better of late. The Athletics lit up Shields in his last outing, and the Phillies offense is about par with Oakland's offense.
Jared Eickhoff is inconsistent for the Phillies, and the White Sox bats have woken up in the last few games. This is a hitters park as well.
Both bullpens rank among the worst in baseball this year, and I see runs coming late in this one as well.
The over is 7-0 in the Phillies last 7 road games. The over is 6-0-1 in the Phillies last 7 after scoring 2 or less last game. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games. A 25-0 angle. Take the over.
|08-24-16||Rangers -1.5 v. Reds||6-5||Loss||-100||18 h 60 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Texas Rangers have lost three games in a row. Texas needs to bounce back, and they have the right guy on the mound to do it in this contest. Yu Darvish has been tremendous on the year. Darvish has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in a single game this year. Darvish has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts on the year.
While the Reds offense has been pretty good of late, I'm not confident this Cincinnati team can keep up their recent hitting. Outside of Joey Votto, I don't trust anyone in this lineup very much. Darvish is a big strikeout guy, and the Reds have a lot of free swingers in the lineup.
Tim Adleman has left 88.4% of runners on base so far this year. That number isn't even close to sustainable. Adleman walks way too many batters, and this Rangers lineup should make him pay. Texas has gotten much better offensively over the course of the year.
The Rangers own a big starting pitching edge, a bullpen edge, and a big offensive edge as well. Take Texas on the run line to bounce back here. Texas -1.5 is the play.
|08-24-16||Yankees v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||5-0||Win||100||14 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Doug Eddings is the umpire behind home plate in this one, and that is great news for under bettors. Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than any other umpire in the majors in the past five years. He'll be helping both Tanaka and Iwakuma, who are guys who are already good at painting the corners.
Hisashi Iwakuma has thrown 15 innings with Eddings behind home plate in his career. In those 15 innings he has allowed only 7 hits and one run. He has fanned 14. Iwakuma has four straight quality starts, and he has only allowed 6 runs combined in those four starts. I expect another good outing from him.
Masahiro Tanaka has 0 walks and 29 strikeouts in his last four starts. Tanaka should benefit greatly from Eddings being behind home plate, because the statistics definitely say that Eddings like to ring guys up. Tanaka has held Seattle batters to a miserable .155 average in 71 plate appearances.
The under is 4-0 in Tanaka's last 4 starts vs. the Mariners. The under is 5-1 in Iwakuma's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees. Take the under here.
|08-23-16||Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7||5-9||Loss||-125||23 h 16 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night. Madison Bumgarner will toe the rubber for the Giants. Kenta Maeda is on the mound for the Dodgers.
Madison Bumgarner has a fantastic track record at Dodger Stadium. How good? Bumgarner has a 2.40 ERA in 90 innings pitched in his career at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers lineup has been good of late, but they are much worse against lefties than righties. In fact, the Dodgers have a .221 batting average against lefties and a .258 average against righties on the year.
The Giants offense has been really inconsistent this year. They are hitting .254 against right handed pitching. They are hitting .261 against lefties. Maeda has been very solid for the Dodgers in his first year.
There are a few good trends for this play. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is also 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers. The under is 4-1 in his last 5 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under.
|08-23-16||Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||Top||7-4||Win||100||19 h 17 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the MONTH* The Atlanta Braves offense was one of the worst in baseball through the All Star break, but they have been much better so far in the second half. The Braves offense actually ranks in the top half of the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days.
Arizona's offense has been solid this year. The reason this team is where they are is a pathetic rotation and an even worse bullpen. The over is 39-21-2 in the Diamondbacks home games so far this year.
In this game we have two of the worst bullpens in the game. The Diamondbacks have an unbelievably bad 7.25 ERA in the last month. That's nearly two runs worse than the second worst bullpen in the majors during that time span. The Braves bullpen ranks in the bottom ten in the majors in all key categories.
Rob Whalen has had a lot of trouble in the majors thus far, and he has been especially bad on the road. He has trouble with the home run ball, and Arizona can hit it deep at home.
Archie Bradley has allowed 22 runs in his last four starts. Bradley has a career ERA of 5.43 at home.
The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 road games. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more the previous game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in Bradley's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Arizona. A 54-0 angle. Take the over big! TOP Play of the MONTH
|08-22-16||Rockies -115 v. Brewers||2-4||Loss||-115||18 h 57 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a great come from behind victory in Seattle, but this is still a bad team that knows they have nothing to play for the rest of the year. They had a long trip late last night back home from Seattle, so I don't think there is much in the way of home field advantage in this game.
Jimmy Nelson has been throwing the ball about as bad as anyone in baseball of late. Nelson has allowed 30 runs in his last 5 starts. He is walking a ton of guys of late. In fact, he hasn't allowed less than two walks in a game since June 21st. Nelson has a 4.31 ERA, but his FIP is 5.06. Nelson's swinging strike rate is a ridiculously low 6.9%. He isn't missing any bats right now.
Chad Bettis has a career ERA of 4.46 on the road. That's certainly not good, but it is much better than his overall ERA. Bettis allowed only one run in his lone start against the Brewers in his career (the start was last year). Bettis has a FIP more than a run lower than his ERA, so he has gotten some rotten luck this year.
The Rockies offense is rolling right now, and facing Nelson I believe they grab another win here.
Milwaukee is 2-12 in Nelson's last 14 starts. The Rockies are 7-1 in Bettis' last 8 starts. Take Colorado.
|08-21-16||Cubs -1.5 v. Rockies||4-11||Loss||-100||14 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Jason Hammel hasn't allowed a run so far in the month of August. In fact, he has only allowed 10 hits in his last 20 innings pitched. Hammel has been tremendous of late. He isn't going to shut down the Rockies at Coors, but his current form and the fact that he previously pitched at Coors Field regularly are both clear positives.
Jorge De La Rosa is 35 years old and his stuff has gotten much worse in the last couple years. De La Rosa has a 5.29 ERA and a 5.19 FIP on the year. While the Cubs are a good offense against both righties and lefties, they are definitely at their best against left handed pitching. Chicago has a .352 OBP against lefties and they are averaging 5.54 runs per game against lefties.
The Cubs have the much better bullpen and the better defense as well. At plus money, I like the Cubs on the run line. Take Chicago -1.5.
|08-21-16||Twins v. Royals UNDER 7.5||1-2||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Kansas City Royals send Danny Duffy to the mound against the Minnesota Twins with Ervin Santana. Both guys come into this game throwing the ball really well. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. His strike zone is as big as you will find, and that will help both pitchers here.
How good has Duffy been? He has allowed 3 runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts! In the other start, he only allowed four runs. Duffy's control has been tremendous, and when you aren't putting anyone on base for free it certainly makes life easier.
Ervin Santana has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Santana has only 4 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last four starts. Santana has been better late in the season in his career, and his day ERA this year is much better than his night games ERA.
The under is 36-14-1 in Miller's last 51 Sunday games behind home plate. The under is 5-0 in Duffy's last 5 home starts vs. the Twins. Take the under.
|08-20-16||Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5||2-1||Loss||-100||18 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The San Diego Padres rank seventh in the majors in the same category. Both of these teams are far better against lefties than righties. The DBacks average 5.53 runs per game against lefties, and the Padres average 5.56 runs per game against lefties.
Petco is no longer the tremendous pitching park that it was in the past. In fact, this year alone it ranks in the top ten parks for hitters when it comes to park factors.
We have two subpar lefties going in this game. Robbie Ray has a 6.00 ERA in four starts vs. the Padres in his career. Clayton Richard has a 4.16 ERA against the DBacks in his career.
Richard has a 5.75 ERA this year despite having been in the bullpen almost the entire time. The Padres lefty has lost some velocity, and I see him as one of the weaker lefties in the majors now.
Both bullpens are worn out after last night, and the DBacks bullpen has a 7.01 ERA in the past month.
The over is 35-17-2 in the DBacks last 54 vs. a lefty. The over is 6-0 in the Padres last 6 home games. Take the over.
|08-19-16||Marlins v. Pirates -1.5||6-5||Loss||-100||18 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB TGIF MONEYMAKER* The Pittsburgh Pirates were written off too soon by some people. The Pirates are coming off a terrific road trip where they won a series in LA and swept the Giants in San Francisco. They are now only one game behind in the NL Wildcard race.
Pittsburgh has a good lineup. Starling Marte is an extremely good player who doesn't get enough respect. Andrew McCutchen has been quietly stepping up his game some in recent weeks. The Pirates best starting pitcher is Gerrit Cole and he makes the start on Friday night. Cole was hit around in Los Angeles on Saturday, but a closer inspection of his start tells an interesting story.
Cole gave up 6 runs in less than five innings, but his FIP in that game was 2.45. Why the huge discrepancy? Cole allowed opponents to hit an unbelievable .522 on batted balls in play. That's just an absurd number when you consider .300 or a little lower is average. Cole has now had a FIP of 2.74 or lower in six straight games. I'll consider last game a blip on the radar screen.
Tom Koehler has an ERA almost a full run worse on the road in his career. Koehler has a 5.73 ERA in two starts at Pittsburgh. Ironically, in his four overall career starts against Pittsburgh, his ERA is 5.73 there as well.
These two teams are headed in different directions right now. The moneyline is too expensive, so I'll grab the run line here. Take Pittsburgh -1.5.
|08-18-16||Mets v. Giants UNDER 6.5||7-10||Loss||-115||22 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets offense has been really bad in recent weeks. They were able to get the offense going a bit against the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff, but everyone hits well against the Diamondbacks. New York now has to go to a pitcher's park and take on one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Madison Bumgarner.
Bumgarner is the ultimate stopper, and his team needs a big effort from him here. Bumgarner has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings pitched despite having to pitch against Washington and Baltimore in those games.
Bumgarner has started 5 games in his career against the Mets, and he has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in those games. He hasn't allowed a single run in his last 15 innings pitched against the Mets (6 of them were this year).
Jacob Degrom has been excellent of late also. Degrom has allowed 1 run or less in 7 of his last 9 starts. That's remarkable consistency from Degrom, and he has simply gotten stronger as the year has gone along.
Degrom has started 3 games against the Giants in his career and he has allowed only 2 earned runs (a 0.84 ERA). He hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 14 innings pitched against the Giants.
Everything points to a very low scoring game in this one. The under is 6-1 in Degrom's last 7 road starts. The under is 6-2 in Bumgarner's last 8 home starts. Take the under here.
|08-18-16||Astros v. Orioles -112||5-13||Win||100||18 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Baltimore Orioles are 39-18 at home this year, and we are getting them at just a little more than even money on the moneyline. This is just too cheap. Yes, the Orioles offense has slumped of late. They are still a very good offense against right handed pitchers though, and that is especially true when they are at home.
Joe Musgrove has made a couple nice starts for the Astros, but I'm not totally convinced that everything will be smooth sailing for him. He was only mediocre in Triple A according to the advanced metrics, and Musgrove is very susceptible to the long ball. That's a big problem here since the Orioles have all kinds of power throughout their lineup.
Kevin Gausman is a totally different pitcher at home, and I expect him to pitch well in this one.
The Astros have been streaky all year, and they are under .500 on the road. Baltimore needs to bounce back after having been beaten by Boston in two straight. Look for them to get back on track here.
Baltimore is 4-0 in Kevin Gausman's last 4 home starts. The Astros are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter. An 11-1 angle. Take Baltimore.
|08-18-16||Red Sox v. Tigers -112||3-4||Win||100||12 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Someone doesn't like the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox had to play on Monday afternoon in Cleveland for a one game makeup. They then traveled to Baltimore and won both games over the Orioles. Tonight's game was rain delayed and eventually called after six innings. Now, they travel to Detroit and have to play at 1:10 pm eastern. That's just a brutal schedule.
Clay Buchholz starts for the Red Sox here, and he hasn't been right all year. Buchholz has a 5.66 ERA and a 5.57 FIP. He is striking out only 5.57 batters per nine innings, which is easily a career low. Buchholz continues to put a bunch of guys on base with walks and hit batters as well. When you aren't striking people out, you really can't afford to be putting a lot of guys on base for free. Buchholz has an ERA of 7.08 in four starts at Detroit.
Matt Boyd has pitched much better for the Tigers in recent outings. Boyd pitched very well (2.25 ERA) in Triple A for Detroit, and he has been inducing a lot more swings and misses lately. The Red Sox have to be worn out, and a couple key players could certainly sit this game out for Boston.
As of this writeup, the number of bets on the Tigers is around 50% of the overall bets on this game, but the Tigers have taken 87% of the money. This is a great situational play and I have to side with the sharp money.
|08-17-16||A's v. Rangers UNDER 9||2-6||Win||100||17 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Yu Darvish has been very good this year. Darvish has had a shortened season thanks to an injury, but he has been pitching as good as ever since he has been back. Darvish is striking out 11.60 batters per nine innings and his swinging strike rate is excellent at 12.8%.
Oakland has been a team that has been difficult on Darvish in the past, but that means less to me now that the Athletics lineup is so much different than it was a year or two ago. Darvish has a 2.77 ERA and his advanced metrics are all excellent so far this year.
Sean Manaea has allowed 3 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has a really high upside, and I like to see his swinging strike rate up at 11.6% like it currently is on the season.
Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and the under is a massive 72-35-5 in his last 112 games behind the plate.
The under is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the A's last 5 road games vs. a home win percentage of 60% or higher. A 22-0 angle. Take the under.
|08-17-16||Pirates +122 v. Giants||6-5||Win||122||13 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates have won the first two games of this series. The Pirates now go for the sweep, and we are getting a better price than we should because of the "avoid the sweep" theory. I don't necessarily make a habit out of betting teams who are looking to sweep on the road, but when the price is this good I can't pass it up. The Pirates are in much better form than the Giants right now.
Buster Posey played last night, but was noticeably limping when running, and a day off here for him wouldn't surprise me a bit in this day game. The Giants start Matt Cain in this game, and he has been really bad this year. Cain has a 5.47 ERA and a 5.29 FIP. The Pirates lineup is a good one, and I expect Cain to struggle here. Cain is walking too many guys and giving up the long ball way too often.
Ivan Nova isn't a bet on pitcher for me normally, but he has held the Giants hitters to a .138 average in 45 career at bats, and he's actually been more consistent than Cain this season. He's backed by the better offense right now, and at this underdog price, I'm on the Pirates.
The Giants are 7-17 in their last 24 vs. a righty. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games in San Francisco. Take Pittsburgh.
|08-16-16||Pirates -102 v. Giants||4-3||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Pittsburgh Pirates have been playing some good baseball of late. They took 2 of 3 at home against the Reds. They then went to Los Angeles and took 2 of 3 against the Dodgers, who have been playing well also.
Pittsburgh isn't out of the playoff race. The Pirates have a real shot at the Wild Card, and they are facing a San Francisco team that is playing poorly right now. Jameson Taillon starts for the Pirates here, and I like him quite a bit. Taillon has tremendous control. He has walked only 3 batters in his last six starts combined. He has struck out 32 during that same time.
Jeff Samardzija has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts. He has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of his last 9 starts. The Pirates offense has been hot of late, and I don't see him cooling them down.
San Francisco is 7-19 in their last 26 games vs. a right handed pitcher. They are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a right handed starter. The Pirates are 6-1 in Taillon's last 7 starts. Take Pittsburgh.
|08-16-16||Mariners -113 v. Angels||6-7||Loss||-113||9 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Los Angeles Angels are tanking. The Angels have lost 11 straight games. Many of their top players have started to show discontent of late, and I wonder about the team chemistry in that dugout. Seattle is going the opposite direction. The Mariners have won 9 of their last 10 games.
I'm very surprised by the line the oddsmakers put out here. Ariel Miranda has been a pretty good pitcher in the minors. Miranda isn't likely to shut down the Angels, but I think he'll hold his own.
Jhoulys Chacin is one of my lowest rated starters in all of baseball. Chacin has been downright awful this year, and of late he has been even worse. Chacin has allowed 31 runs in his last 6 starts. Two starts ago he managed to give up 12 hits in 4 and 2/3 innings. Last game he allowed 7 runs in 1 and 1/3 innings.
The Mariners have a big bullpen edge over the Angels, so I like our chances if it is close late as well.
The Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The Angels are 0-11 in their last 11. They are 0-4 in Chacin's last 4 starts. The Mariners are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 28-1 angle. Take Seattle.
|08-16-16||White Sox v. Indians UNDER 7.5||1-3||Win||100||18 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians will start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber has pitched really well of late. After a slow start, he is once again commanding his pitches really well. Kluber has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Kluber's strikeout rate has gone up in the past month, and he faces a White Sox team here that strikes out a lot against right handed pitching.
The White Sox have really struggled offensively against righties this year. They are 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and they face one of the best right handed pitchers in baseball on Tuesday night.
Jose Quintana is second to last in the American League in run support. The White Sox are averaging 3.2 runs per game in his starts. Quintana is a very underrated pitcher, and he has been amazing in Cleveland in the past. In 46 and 1/3 innings pitched in Cleveland, Quintana has a brilliant 1.17 ERA.
The under is 6-0 in Quintana's last 6 starts vs. Cleveland. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. Cleveland. The under is 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the White Sox. A 16-0 angle. Take the under.
|08-14-16||Mariners -107 v. A's||8-4||Win||100||14 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Oakland A's are 4-12 in their last 16 games vs. a left handed starter. Wade LeBlanc certainly isn't a top notch lefty, but he shouldn't have to be against the A's here. While I expect the A's to score some runs, I think the Mariners should be able to get to Zachary Neal in this game. Neal has struck out only 11 batters in 29 and 1/3 innings on the year. I don't think Neal is a big league pitcher long-term. He had mediocre numbers in the minors, and I look for Seattle to get to him in this one.
The Mariners also certainly have the better bullpen, so if the game is close late, I like my chances. At this price, I'm going to side with the much better team. Seattle is 8-1 in their last 9 games in Oakland. Take Seattle here.
|08-14-16||Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5||8-4||Win||100||14 h 44 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oakland A's start Zachary Neal here and he hasn't been able to put anyone away all year. He has 11 strikeouts in 29 and 1/3 innings pitched. He had a FIP of well over 4 in Triple A, and I think his days in the majors are likely short lived, at least as a starter.
Wade LeBlanc has a 4.74 ERA and a 5.64 FIP on the year. This is a guy who has never had much success in the past in the majors, and I don't really expect that to change in the long run either. LeBlanc faces an Oakland lineup that has been better against lefties than righties this year.
The ball flies significantly better during the day in Oakland, and the wind is blowing out on Sunday. Mark Wegner is the umpire here, and he is a big over umpire. He has a small strike zone and the over is 20-7-2 in his last 29 games behind home plate. Take the over here.
|08-14-16||Orioles v. Giants -134||8-7||Loss||-134||2 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* I waited for the San Francisco lineup to be posted before making this selection. I wanted to make sure Posey and Pence were in the lineup, and they are so this is a play for me. San Francisco has Johnny Cueto on the mound here. The Giants are 18-5 in Cueto's last 23 starts. Cueto has been a little bit off of late, but he faces an Orioles offense that has been scuffling of late.
Wade Miley is on the mound for the Orioles. Miley has struggled all season long, and he is definitely a much weaker starter than Cueto. While the Orioles are a very good team at home, they are just 26-34 on the road this year.
San Francisco is 19-7 in their last 26 games vs a left handed starter. They are 49-24 in their last 73 interleague home games. Take San Francisco here.
|08-14-16||Angels v. Indians OVER 9||4-5||Push||0||13 h 33 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jered Weaver is a really bad pitcher at this stage of his career. Weaver has no velocity and is striking out a measly 4.70 batters per nine innings this year. That's easily the lowest of his career.
The Indians offense ranks third in the majors in wOBA at home this year. They have really been putting up the offensive numbers on their home field. Jered Weaver has an ugly 5.22 ERA on the road this year. He has a 5.19 ERA overall this year, but his XFIP is 5.78, so if anything he has gotten some good luck this year. I think Cleveland puts up a big number here.
Trevor Bauer is really inconsistent. The Angels offense has been good over the last couple months, and Bauer is fully capable of getting shelled. In his career, Bauer has a 3.78 ERA before the All Star Break and a 5.30 ERA after the break. Bauer allowed 25 runs in 5 starts before shutting down Washington last start. I don't think his issues are fixed yet, and I see the Angels scoring several here.
Clint Fagan ranks 82nd out of 89 umpires in my database in strikes called in the past five years, so he is a good over guy.
Take the over in this one.
|08-13-16||Orioles v. Giants UNDER 7||2-6||Loss||-115||19 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles have been in a major offensive slump of late. They have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Add in the fact that they are much worse against left handed pitching compared to right handed pitching, and this looks like a good spot for Madison Bumgarner. The Orioles have a .269 average against righties and only a .234 average against lefties.
Kevin Gausman has 4 very good starts in his last 5 outings. Gausman gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing at AT&T Park. The Giants offense has been inconsistent the whole year.
The Orioles lose a hitter here in the NL park, and that's a positive for the under as well.
Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire because of his strikes called percentage long-term. He'll help both pitchers.
The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 8-0 in Gausman's last 8 starts when the Orioles score 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 40-0 angle. Take the under.
|08-13-16||Royals v. Twins OVER 9||3-5||Loss||-115||16 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins have been a tremendous over team all year. Minnesota is hitting the ball really well of late, and their pitching staff has been awful. What has that meant? Loads of overs. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 games. Why? Because one team has scored 6 runs or more in 9 of their 10 games. In fact, in 3 of the Twins last 10 games there has been a 10 spot put up by one side alone. The Twins bullpen has been used very heavily of late, and they are worn down.
Tyler Duffey has a miserable 7.22 ERA at home on the year. He threw a good game last time out against the Astros, but this guy has been as inconsistent as anyone in the majors, and expecting two straight strong games from him is a lot to ask.
Dillon Gee doesn't pitch deep into the game, and the Royals bullpen is a mess of late. Their middle relief isn't any good, and they have a ton of injuries in the bullpen.
The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 6-0 in Duffey's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the over.
|08-13-16||Pirates +122 v. Dodgers||4-8||Loss||-100||2 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Gerrit Cole has been much better of late. Cole has very good high end stuff, and now that he is healthy again he is showing it very nicely. Cole has had a FIP of 3.14 or lower in nine straight starts. His strikeout and swinging strike rate has drastically increased since returning from the disabled list in July.
Brandon McCarthy is coming off Tommy John surgery. He looked pretty good in his first few games back, but something has been wrong of late. McCarthy hasn't pitched more than 4 innings in any of his last three starts. In his last two starts, he has walked five batters in each of those starts. I'm wondering if something is wrong with him since he is recovering from something so major.
The Pirates are still in the Wild Card race, and Pittsburgh is 8-3 in Cole's last 11 road starts. The Pirates are also 4-0 in Cole's last 4 starts vs. the Dodgers. Take Pittsburgh.
|08-13-16||Astros +160 v. Blue Jays||2-4||Loss||-100||10 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Houston Astros are playing good baseball again. This has been a very streaky team all year. When they get hot, they can be really tough to slow down. Aaron Sanchez has pitched well this year, but he is getting too much respect here. He is due for some regression, and the Astros offense is hot once again. Collin McHugh is due for some positive regression. The Blue Jays offense is definitely good, but that is more than baked into this price.
The Astros have a clear advantage in the bullpen, and that is something that can't be overlooked here. This is a game where I believe the true odds should be something like -115 or -120 on the Blue Jays, which makes this price on the underdog a steal.
|08-12-16||Tigers v. Rangers -1.5||5-8||Win||105||9 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Texas Rangers start Yu Darvish in this one, and when he is healthy he is absolutely one of the best pitchers in baseball. Darvish has made 8 starts this year and none of them has he allowed more than 3 runs. He has allowed more than 2 runs only twice. This Detroit offense is good, but they are a bit banged up right now. The Tigers are without Nick Castellanos and Cameron Maybin right now.
Anibal Sanchez has been terrible on the road this year. His road ERA for the season is a miserable 7.38. Sanchez has declining stuff, and his decline has shown up the most on the road. Tonight, he pitches in Arlington where he has a brutal 12.34 ERA in three career starts. This Texas lineup is very deep, and I think they hit Sanchez hard tonight.
The Rangers bullpen actually ranks in the top five in the majors in the past month, while the Tigers bullpen is right at the league average.
The Rangers have all the advantages here. The Tigers are 0-8 in Sanchez's last 8 road starts. The Rangers are 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts vs. Detroit. The Tigers are 2-14 in Sanchez's last 16 starts overall. Take Texas -1.5.
|08-12-16||Rays -122 v. Yankees||3-6||Loss||-122||19 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees are coming off a series win at Boston. What's important to note though is that Boston series meant a lot more to the Yankees than this series at home against the lowly Rays. The Yankees aren't likely to make the playoffs after all the moves they made, and they know it, and they will get up for certain series' more than others right now.
Why would I look to back the Rays? I really like what I've seen out of Chris Archer lately. This looks like a guy who is getting his stuff back together again. Archer has 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. He also has allowed 3 runs or less in each of those starts. He has a FIP of 3.67 or lower in each of his last four starts. He has great raw stuff, and is getting things going again.
Archer also has a brilliant 2.18 ERA in six career starts at Yankee Stadium, so he loves pitching here.
C.C. Sabathia is going the opposite direction. Sabathia has allowed 5 runs or more in 6 of his last 9 starts overall. Sabathia has been giving up home run balls like crazy of late (6 in his last 3 starts alone).
The Rays hit lefties very well, and they have a huge pitching advantage here. The Yankees are 0-4 in Sabathia's last 4 home starts. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Tampa Bay.
|08-12-16||Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 8.5||6-10||Loss||-100||17 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies come into this game without Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds. This is a wounded team that came to Philadelphia on Thursday night after a long game.
Philadelphia's offense has been one of the worst in baseball all year. They are hitting just .235 against right handed pitching this year. They are up against a very good righty in Jon Gray on Friday night. Gray has been inconsistent at Coors Field, but on the road he has been great. He has terrific stuff, and I expect him to pitch well against the Phillies for the second time this year.
Jake Thompson starts for the Phillies. Thompson is making just his second major league start. While the Rockies can be a tough matchup at times, he is catching them without a couple of their best hitters. The Rockies have once again been relatively weak offensively on the road this year as well.
The under is 6-1 in Gray's last 7 starts. The under is 8-3 in the Rockies last 11 road games. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
|08-11-16||Padres v. Pirates -1.5||0-4||Win||120||11 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Pittsburgh Pirates were shutout by Edwin Jackson last night. Edwin Jackson certainly isn't a guy the Pirates should be getting shut out by, and I think we see a nice bounceback here.
The Pirates have been much better all year against lefties than righties. Pittsburgh has a .343 OBP against lefties and only a .323 OBP against righties. In this matchup on Thursday afternoon they will face Christian Friedrich, who is a subpar left handed starter. Friedrich has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts!
The Pirates counter with Jameson Taillon, who has been great in his rookie season. Taillon's superb control is amazing for a rookie. Taillon has walked one batter total in his last five starts. During that time, he has struck out 28 batters. That is getting the job done. He's up against a weak Padres lineup here, and he should pitch very well.
The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a lefty. The Padres are 0-8 in their last 8 games following a win. I'm certainly not laying -185 or anything like that, so we'll take the run line here. Take Pittsburgh -1.5.
|08-10-16||Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8||2-3||Win||100||16 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jaime Garcia is a totally different pitcher when pitching at home. Garcia has a career 2.79 ERA at home. The Reds have hit him around at Great American Ballpark, but he has consistently been very good against Cincinnati at home.
While Cincinnati has been more competitive lately, it is primarily due to improved pitching. With Jay Bruce gone, there is no doubt that this lineup is weakened. Anthony Desclafani has a ton of talent and he has been remarkably consistent. In 8 of his last 9 starts he has a quality start. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of those 9 starts.
Angel Hernandez is a good umpire to have behind the plate for this one, because he is a strike caller. He'll help both pitchers. Garcia has a 1.40 ERA in 3 starts with him behind the dish.
The under is 6-1-1 in Desclafani's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 18-6-2 in Garcia's last 26 home starts. Take the under here.
|08-10-16||Rays +181 v. Blue Jays||0-7||Loss||-100||16 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Tampa Bay Rays have a .332 OBP against left handed pitching this year. The Toronto Blue Jays have a .330 OBP against lefties on the season. Tampa Bay has been miserable against right handed pitching, but in this one they are against lefty J.A. Happ.
The Rays have given J.A. Happ fits over his career. He has a 5.37 ERA against them. The current Rays lineup has a .322 average against Happ. Happ has a great win/loss record this year, but the advanced data suggests he is due for some regression.
Blake Snell has been tremendous of late for Tampa Bay. Snell has struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings pitched in four of his last five outings. The Jays have been striking out at a high rate of late.
There is no way the Jays should be a nearly -200 favorite here. I understand why they are favored, but this price is just too high. I'll take a chance on a big underdog here. Take Tampa Bay.
|08-09-16||Braves v. Brewers OVER 9||2-1||Loss||-115||20 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Wily Peralta had a 6.68 ERA in 13 starts with the Brewers this year. He actually started the team's season opener, but then pitched so poorly he was sent down to the minors. Peralta proceeded to make 10 starts in Triple A. He has a 6.31 ERA in Triple A. Peralta can't get guys out at any level right now.
Tyrell Jenkins is a mid level prospect for the Braves. He might end up being a serviceable starter, but he should have a lot of growing pains. He has a 4.33 ERA and a 6.50 FIP so far this year.
The Braves lineup has come alive somewhat in the last few games. They have scored 5 runs or more five times in that span. They also have an 8 and 13 run performance thrown in there. Against Peralta, they should score several.
The Brewers offense has been hitting the ball well of late, and the Braves have a subpar starter and a poor bullpen as well.
I look for plenty of runs here. Take the over.
|08-09-16||Giants v. Marlins OVER 8||0-2||Loss||-105||18 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins have a really good offense. Dee Gordon is now back and he's the table setter for a great group of young hitters. Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Derek Dietrich are having great seasons. Giancarlo Stanton is coming on a bit and hits left handed pitching really well. The Marlins have always been better against lefties, and Matt Moore is a vulnerable lefty.
Matt Moore has walked 10 guys in his last two starts. Putting guys on base like that will usually hurt you a lot against a deep lineup like the Marlins lineup. Moore is allowing 1.32 HR's per nine innings, and the Marlins have plenty of pop as well.
Tom Koehler is another guy that puts a bunch of runners on base. Koehler has the highest walk rate of his career this season. He has a SIERA of 4.89, and all the advanced metrics are low on him. Koehler is coming off a couple nice starts, which gives us a lower number here on the over.
The Giants lineup is getting healthier, and this offense is very capable of going on a tear.
The over is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 home games. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in the Marlins last 8 after allowing more than 5 runs last game. A 22-1 angle. Take the over.
|08-09-16||Indians v. Nationals -1.5||3-1||Loss||-100||5 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Washington Nationals have value on the run line here. Max Scherzer has allowed 1 run or less in 8 of his last 12 starts. He has only allowed more than 3 one time in that span. He has been locked in of late, and I don't see any reason for that to change here. The Indians offense has been amazing at home this year, but they are 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average on the road.
Trevor Bauer has always been an inconsistent pitcher. He had been throwing the ball well earlier this year, but of late he has struggled badly. Bauer has allowed 20 runs in his last 4 starts. Though he had been getting away with it before, there were signs of problems. In his last 7 starts, Bauer has a FIP of 4.07 or higher. I don't trust him right now.
The Indians bullpen is improved, but the Nationals still have the better bullpen. Big pitching edge here to Washington.
The Indians are 1-4 in Bauer's last 5 starts. The Nationals are 4-1 in Scherzer's last 5 starts. The Indians are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Washington -1.5.
|08-08-16||Phillies v. Dodgers -1.5||4-9||Win||110||21 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Run Line Play of the Week* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Julio Urias in this one. Urias has pitched into some bad luck this year. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of .378 against him so far this year. That should regress to the mean (around .300) over time. Urias has a FIP of 4.13 or lower in 7 of his last 8 starts. His last start was the lone bad one there, but that was at Coors Field so it is pretty understandable.
The Phillies offense hasn't been very good this year, and Urias has dynamite stuff. Also, this Dodgers bullpen is better than most believe. They've had a few blowups, but over the course of the season they have been good.
Zach Eflin has struggled badly this year. Eflin is striking out only 4.62 batters per nine innings. He also is giving up 1.34 home runs per nine innings. The Dodgers offense has been hitting the ball much better in recent weeks, and Eflin and this Phillies bullpen are unlikely to be able to quiet them here.
The Dodgers are 26-9 in their last 35 home games. Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|08-08-16||Tigers v. Mariners OVER 7.5||0-3||Loss||-105||8 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Michael Fulmer has been excellent this year. I've made good money backing him and the Tigers, but I do believe he is due for some regression soon. Fulmer has been shaky in his last few starts. He has a FIP of 4.78 or higher in his last 3 outings. He has a 2.42 ERA for the year, but his FIP is 3.76 and his SIERA is 3.98. He is stranding 84% of runners on base, which has to come back to normal at some point.
Hisashi Iwakuma has terrible career numbers against this Detroit lineup. The Tigers have a .361 batting average and a .415 OBP against him. Iwakuma isn't the pitcher he was a couple years ago, and I see the Tigers getting to him here.
Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom six in the majors in FIP in the past month.
Seattle averages more than 5 runs per game against right handed pitching. The Tigers average more than 5 runs per game against right handed pitching as well.
Take the over.
|08-08-16||Astros -122 v. Twins||1-3||Loss||-122||6 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins have certainly played better baseball of late, but I believe they are getting a little too much respect here. Tyler Duffey has a 7.96 ERA at home this year. Duffey has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last four starts. Duffey has allowed 5 runs or more in 9 of his last 14 starts. The Twins bullpen isn't very good either.
Collin McHugh has a career ERA of 1.93 in the month of August. That is easily his best month in his career. That's not something I put a ton of stock into, but it is interesting and adds to my conviction here. McHugh has thrown the ball well lately in general, and he's backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball.
The Astros are 7-0 in McHugh's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The Astros are 4-0 in McHugh's last 4 starts vs. the Twins. A 16-0 angle. Take Houston.
|08-07-16||Marlins v. Rockies -119||10-7||Loss||-119||12 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers aren't giving Jon Gray enough credit here. Gray is turning into a very good starting pitcher. Gray has had a FIP of 2.56 or lower in four of his last five starts. Gray has only allowed one run in his last 12 innings pitched at Coors Field. This is a guy with a very high upside.
Colorado has always been a good team at home. The Rockies have gotten hot at home of late. Colorado has won 7 of their last 9 home games. They have also won 5 of Gray's last 7 home starts.
Adam Conley is the starter for the Marlins here. He's never made a start in Coors Field before. Starting in Coors Field is always tough, but the hot afternoon games are even tougher. This is a very tough spot for him.
Miami is 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 2-5 in Conley's last 7 road starts.
Colorado has the big starting pitching edge, and I'll lay the short price here. Take Colorado.
|08-06-16||Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||15-6||Win||100||17 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers are way out of the running this year, and it will be a long last couple months for them. Matt Garza is coming off a pretty good start against Pittsburgh, but this is a guy who has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Garza's strikeout rate is at a career low.
Patrick Corbin has been a big disappointment this year. Corbin has a 5.30 ERA overall and a 6.91 ERA in 10 starts at home this year. Milwaukee is much better against left handed pitching. The Brewers have a .339 OBP vs. lefties compared to only .314 against righties.
Both lineups have a good history against the opposing starter here, though Milwaukee hasn't faced Corbin often.
John Tumpane is a bit of an over umpire and that helps as well. Another big help is the bullpens here. Milwaukee's bullpen is a subpar bullpen. The Arizona bullpen is now the worst bullpen in the majors.
The over is 13-3 in the DBacks last 16 home games. The over is 15-5-1 in Corbin's last 21 starts. Take the over.
|08-06-16||Braves v. Cardinals -1.5||13-5||Loss||-110||6 h 28 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The St. Louis Cardinals got both Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss back in the lineup. Those are really key additions. Matt Carpenter is the team's most consistent and best overall hitter, and he sets the table for this offense. St. Louis is right in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, and they need every game at this point.
Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) pitches for the Braves in this one. Hernandez is almost 36 years old, and I see no reason to expect success from him. Hernandez had a 4.42 ERA in Triple A with the Blue Jays this year. With Atlanta's Triple A team he has a 5.52 ERA in three starts. Why should I believe he will get out big league hitters? With a healthy lineup again, the Cardinals have one of the best lineups in baseball.
Carlos Martinez faces what is one of the weakest lineups in baseball in the Atlanta Braves today. Martinez has a 2.99 ERA on the year, and he has been very good. Martinez has been best at night (2.77 ERA), and this one is a night game.
This is a mismatch all around. Lay the -1.5 with the Cardinals here. Take St. Louis on the run line.
|08-06-16||Giants v. Nationals -1.5||7-1||Loss||-108||16 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Stephen Strasburg has started 20 games this year. The Washington Nationals have won 18 of those games. Of those 18 wins when Strasburg pitches, 14 of them have been by 2 runs or more.
Matt Cain is the opposing starter here, and Cain has some serious problems. He was a very good pitcher a few years ago, but now he is nothing but a shell of his old self. Cain has a 7.48 ERA on the road this year. Last year, his road ERA was 6.27. Cain is occasionally able to throw a very good game at home, but it almost never happens on the road.
Stephen Strasburg has taken the next step this year. He has been very good all year long. In the past, Strasburg was too inconsistent. Even in those inconsistent years (2010-2015), Strasburg had a very good 2.79 ERA against the Giants in seven starts. I expect another good start from him here.
The Giants are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a right handed starter. They are 5-16 in Cain's last 21 road starts. The Nationals are 39-14 in Strasburg's last 53 starts. Take Washington -1.5.
|08-05-16||Mets v. Tigers UNDER 7.5||3-4||Win||100||15 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star TGIF Red HOT CASH* It's a showdown between Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander here. Syndergaard is arguably baseball's best young pitcher, and Verlander dominated baseball for a long time himself.
Verlander has turned back the clock in his last few outings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last six starts. There is little reason to believe the injury-plagued Mets lineup will be the ones to stop that streak. Verlander has a FIP of 1.71 or lower in 3 of his last 6 starts, so it hasn't been good luck, it has been great pitching.
Syndergaard hasn't quite bit at the top of his game the last few starts, but in his short career so far Thor has brought his best for the big games. This is a big game in that it is a much anticipated showdown for him vs. a great Detroit lineup and a Cy Young winner in Verlander.
The Mets offense is a mess now. The Tigers offense is very good, but Syndergaard has the dominant stuff to slow down any offense.
The under is 6-1-1 in Verlander's last 8 home starts. Take the under.
|08-04-16||Dodgers -125 v. Rockies||4-2||Win||100||20 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been thumped in the first two games of this series. I like their chances of getting the third game in this series. Colorado has certainly been playing good baseball of late, but the Rockies have some injury concerns. Trevor Story is now out for the year and that is a significant loss. Carlos Gonzalez left yesterday's game with a minor ankle injury and he is questionable for this game also.
The Dodgers offense has been much better in the past month, and they have a favorable matchup here. Colorado's Tyler Chatwood has been lights out on the road (1.30 ERA), but he has been terrible at home (5.69 ERA). Chatwood hasn't figured out Coors Field yet, and until he does I'll look to find value on the other side.
Kenta Maeda didn't give up a run in his first start at Coors Field this year. Maeda has been very good in his first season with the Dodgers, and he's backed by a pretty good bullpen.
The Dodgers are 9-4 in Maeda's last 13 starts. They are 5-2 in his last 7 road starts. The Dodgers are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. the NL West.
The price here is too short on Los Angeles. Take the Dodgers.
|08-03-16||Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8.5||3-1||Win||100||21 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Marco Estrada has pitched very well this year. Estrada has a 3.02 ERA on the season. In his career, the Astros lineup has only hit .242 against Estrada. Houston's lineup has been very streaky this year, and of late they have been slumping.
Collin McHugh starts this one for the Astros. McHugh is a quality pitcher who is coming off a really bad start at Detroit. Before that start, he had a tremendous stretch of good starts. He pitches better at home and Toronto has several guys banged up right now.
Bill Miller is the home plate umpire and he ranks second in my umpire database in strikes called percentage in the past five years. He loves giving pitchers the edge and that should help both of these guys a great deal.
Houston's bullpen has been tremendous and that is another reason I like this play.
The under is 31-15-1 in the Astros last 47 games. Take the under here.
|08-03-16||White Sox v. Tigers -120||1-2||Win||100||18 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers are playing some really good baseball right now. Detroit is quietly within 3 games of Cleveland in the AL Central. The Tigers are now 30-19 at home this year, and they have won 7 straight games.
Detroit's offense is one of the best in baseball when they are healthy, and they get JD Martinez back from the DL on Wednesday. That's a huge pickup, since Martinez is great power hitter who can really take it to lefties. Detroit has the personnel to stack up the righties and make things very difficult on the opposing starter.
Chris Sale is obviously a very good starter, but he hasn't been as good of late. Sale had the much talked about problems with the jersey where he got suspended, and it appears he'd rather be somewhere else. Sale has had an XFIP of 4.92 or higher in each of his last three outings.
Detroit's lineup has a very good .342 on base percentage against Sale in 240 plate appearances, so they have had plenty of success against him.
Michael Fulmer has been tremendous for the Tigers this year, and the White Sox are awful against right handed pitching.
Also, the Tigers have a big bullpen advantage in this one, and that could be key late in the game.
The Tigers are 14-2 in Fulmer's last 16 starts. The White Sox are 5-21 in their last 26 road games vs. a right handed starter. Take Detroit.
|08-02-16||A's v. Angels UNDER 8||4-5||Loss||-110||19 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's offense wasn't good to start with, and now they traded away Josh Reddick. Reddick was by far their best hitter, and he will be badly missed. When he went down with an injury earlier this year, the offense was a mess. I expect Oakland to be one of the worst offenses in the majors the rest of the season.
Matt Shoemaker's line from last outing against KC is misleading. He pitched very well for much of the game and was undone by some questionable calls and one big inning. Shoemaker has been amazing at home in his career (2.79 ERA). He has walked only 2 guys and struck out 19 in his last three outings.
Sean Manaea has been amazing in his last few starts. Manaea has huge upside potential, and he is starting to show it. He hasn't walked a single batter in his last four starts! He has a 4.57 ERA, but a FIP of 3.98.
The under is 3-0-1 in the A's last 4 following a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after giving up 5 runs or more. The under is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 following an off day. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in Shoemaker's last 4 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL West. A 22-0 angle. Take the under.
|08-02-16||Nationals -140 v. Diamondbacks||10-4||Win||100||19 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The Washington Nationals hit left handed pitching significantly better than righties. Washington averages 5.12 runs per game against lefties vs. only 4.53 against righties.
Robbie Ray starts this game for the Arizona Diamondbacks. I don't necessarily think Ray is a bad pitcher, but he has struggled quite a bit at home. Ray has a 5.33 ERA at home in his career vs. 3.94 on the road. That's definitely an odd split, but he's thrown enough innings now to where it makes a difference to me. Ray is giving up a lot of hard contact of late. He isn't likely to pitch really deep into the game, and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the worst bullpen in the majors right now in my ratings.
Tanner Roark is an underrated starting pitcher. Roark has a solid 3.29 ERA on the road in his career, and his 2nd half of the season career ERA is only 2.76. Roark will be facing a Diamondbacks team that struggles against right handed pitching.
Arizona is 17-36 at home this year, so fading them at home against a good team like Washington is the way I'll go here. Arizona is also 16-37 in their last 53 games vs. a right handed starter. Washington is 6-1 in Roark's last 7 road starts. Take Washington.
|08-02-16||Rangers v. Orioles UNDER 9||1-5||Win||100||18 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dylan Bundy has an extremely high upside, and he has flashed his potential in his last two starts. Bundy has one walk and 13 strikeouts in his last two games. He has excellent stuff and I like his potential.
Yu Darvish has elite stuff as well. He hasn't been getting wins lately, but it isn't because he has pitched poorly. The Rangers haven't given him run support. Darvish has a 3.09 ERA, but his FIP is a really impressive 2.57. He is striking out 12.66 batters per nine innings, which is the highest of his career.
The Orioles offense is good, but they have been slumping of late. Until they come out of it, I'll look to find spots for unders on them. With the wind blowing in and two pitchers with great upside, I like this as one of them.
The under is 3-0-1 in Darvish's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in the Orioles last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 home games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 35-0 angle. Take the under.
|08-01-16||Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 9||2-1||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Red Sox start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez in this game. Rodriguez was highly touted prospect who struggled early this year, but he recently went down to Triple A and changed up some flaws in his mechanics. Rodriguez has pitched better in his last three outings.
Seattle played the late game at Wrigley Field and lost a heartbreaker in extra innings on Sunday night. They might be a little sluggish in this game, and if anything I think that leads to a lower scoring game. The Mariners rank 20th in wOBA vs. lefties.
James Paxton has had a bunch of bad luck this year. Paxton has a 4.76 ERA thanks to a very unlucky .376 batting average on balls in play. This is a guy who has a great swinging strike rate of 11.9%. Boston unquestionably has a very good offense, but I think Paxton can at least slow them down.
There has only been one game all year in Seattle with a total this high. Safeco is a great pitchers park and I think this number is just too high to pass up.
The under is 8-0 in the Red Sox last 8 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. The under is 6-0 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Seattle. A 31-0 angle. Take the under.
|08-01-16||Nationals -1.5 v. Diamondbacks||14-1||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Washington Nationals have gotten a great season out of Stephen Strasburg so far this year. Strasburg has taken the next step that everyone was waiting on him to take. He has turned into a true ace. Strasburg has induced much more weak contact this year. He is still striking out about 11 guys per nine innings pitched as well.
Strasburg goes up against an Arizona team that is absolutely flailing right now. The Diamondbacks have nothing much to play for between now and season's end. Arizona is very good against left handed pitching, but they are poor against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are 17-35 at home this year. They are 7-22 in their last 29 games overall.
Archie Bradley is a subpar starter at this stage in his career and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen is currently the worst bullpen in the majors. Washington is a top 5 bullpen.
Washington is 10-1 in Strasburg's last 11 road starts. They are 38-14 in his last 52 starts overall.
Take Washington -1.5.
|07-31-16||Red Sox v. Angels +105||5-3||Loss||-100||14 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie BLASTER* The Boston Red Sox have scored 3 runs or less in 3 of their last 4 games. They'll face very talented youngster Tyler Skaggs in this one. Skaggs is a lefty who shutout the Royals in his first start back from an injury last outing.
Skaggs was a highly touted guy, and he appears to be realizing his promise now. Skaggs had 1.67 ERA in 7 starts in Triple A before shutting out Kansas City.
Steven Wright has had a nice season, but he has been very fortunate with batted balls and runners left on base. He is due for some regression, and he faces an Angels team that has hit him well in the past. In 3 career starts vs. the Angels, Wright has a 6.61 ERA.
The Red Sox are 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a left handed starter. The Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 home games. They are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. Boston. Take Los Angeles here.
|07-31-16||Royals v. Rangers OVER 10||3-5||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers have badly needed a starting pitcher. They traded for Lucas Harrell. Harrell isn't necessarily a bad starter, but he also isn't a fix to their problem. Harrell has been pitching in Atlanta and pitching better than expected, but things get much tougher pitching in Texas in the scorching heat and against better lineups. I don't expect Harrell to pitch as well moving forward.
Dillon Gee hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of his starts this year. Gee 4.54 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. Gee has always been a guy who struggles with the long ball, and that's dangerous in this park.
The weather forecast is ridiculous here. The game time temperature is expected to be 98 degrees. Home plate umpire Pat Hoberg is in my database as a small over umpire, and that helps also.
Both bullpens struggle in the middle relief, and I think both starters will be out early. Take the over.
|07-31-16||A's v. Indians UNDER 8||0-8||Push||0||9 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here. He has five very good starts in his last six outings. Kluber was hit hard by the Toronto Blue Jays in his one bad start, but the Oakland Athletics offense will never be confused with the Blue Jays offense.
Sonny Gray has been struggling a lot more this year, but his career numbers against the Indians are tremendous. Gray has pitched 28 innings against Cleveland and allowed only 2 runs. That's a 0.64 ERA. Gray also has a career 2.82 ERA in day games (3.60 at night), so this is a good spot for him.
Helping both pitchers is home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt. He has become a good under umpire in the last few years. His strikeout/walk ratio is near the top, and the under is 9-1-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.
A relatively mild temperature and wind blowing in should benefit this play also. Take the under.
|07-30-16||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5||4-2||Loss||-100||20 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a tremendous comeback win over the Arizona Diamondbacks last night. The Dodgers were down 7-2 in the 7th and came back to win 9-7. Manager Dave Roberts said after the game he believed that was probably the best win of the season for his team.
The Dodgers offense underachieved badly for the first few months of the season. Finally, the Dodgers offense has been very good in the past month. Los Angeles ranks fifth in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days.
Braden Shipley starts this one for Arizona. Scouting reports on him are mixed. The thing that makes me think he has limited upside, at least for the time being, is his strikeout rate in the minors. Shipley only struck out 5.81 batters per nine innings in Triple A.
Scott Kazmir is 11th in the majors in most run support this year at 5.55 runs per game. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 games and they have covered the run line in all four games. Take Los Angeles -1.5.
|07-30-16||Reds -124 v. Padres||1-2||Loss||-124||18 h 1 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB RED HOT Cash* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani in this one. DeSclafani is a good young pitcher who has really put it together in the last couple months. He had a poor outing last time out against San Francisco, but before that game he had allowed 3 runs or less in six straight games. He'll be up against a Padres lineup that is an absolute mess right now. Melvin Upton Jr. was traded away. Solarte has been the most consistent hitter on the team, but he is away from the team right now. The Padres offense has been awful against righties all year (.226 batting average and .287 OBP), and here they are facing a good righty.
Christian Friedrich has some ugly minor league numbers in the last couple years, so it was a surprise when he started this year off nicely in the majors. He has come back down to earth quickly though. Friedrich has serious control problems. He has an ERA above 5 in each of his last 7 starts. It hasn't been just bad luck either. His FIP is above 4 in every single one of those starts.
The Reds offense has been hot of late, and their bullpen is improved with Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, and Tony Cingrani stepping up of late.
The Reds are 4-0 in DeSclafani's last 4 starts. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. Take Cincinnati.
|07-30-16||Phillies v. Braves UNDER 7.5||9-5||Loss||-115||18 h 60 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have the two worst offenses in the National League. They played to a 2-1 game on Friday night, and I'm looking for a second straight low scoring game in this one.
Jeremy Hellickson isn't a great pitcher, but he does have a history of quieting weak offenses. Hellickson gives up a lot of fly balls, which isn't a terrible thing when you are pitching in Atlanta against an offense that doesn't have very much power.
Julio Teheran has been really good for the Braves this year. Teheran has a 2.84 ERA at home in his career, and a nice 3.13 ERA in the 2nd half of the season in his career. In 78 and 2/3 innings, Teheran has a 2.29 ERA against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Teheran has received the lowest amount of run support of any pitcher in the big leagues this year at a miserable 2.50 runs per game. Hellickson has received a paltry 3.24 runs per game, which is the 8th lowest of any pitcher in the majors.
The under is 7-0 in Hellickson's last 7 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 after a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 7-0 in Teheran's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 36-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-29-16||Orioles v. Blue Jays -127||5-6||Win||100||16 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Friday MLB MONEYMAKER* The Toronto Blue Jays offense got a big boost when Jose Bautista came back into the fold recently. Toronto now has what is probably the deepest lineup in the majors.
Baltimore's offense has been good this year, but they are slumping in a big way of late. The Orioles have scored 3 runs or less in 10 of their last 16 games. They haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 17 games. That's a pretty crazy statistic considering this is a team that is averaging 4.75 runs per game for the entire season (even after this recent slump).
Marco Estrada has a good 3.38 ERA against Baltimore in 37 and 1/3 innings. Estrada is a second half pitcher, as he has a very nice 3.12 ERA in 2nd half of the season in his career.
This is also a good situational spot. Baltimore had to fly to Minnesota for a game on Thursday for a makeup game. Toronto had the day off. Baltimore had a virus go through their dugout a week or so ago, and I think this Orioles team is a little worn out right now.
Kevin Gausman is actually a pitcher I'm high on, so this isn't a fade of him. Still, Gausman has a 5.11 road ERA in his career. The Orioles are also 5-17 in his last 22 road starts.
Toronto is 43-18 in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Toronto here.