*3 Star Play Under* Ron Kulpa has been an under machine in his career as an umpire. The under is a whopping 218-160 in his career. That's 58% of games finishing under the posted total when he's behind the dish. That's way too big of a number to ignore.

Whenever Kulpa is behind the dish, if I lean to the under at all, I go ahead and take the under. Jake Odorizzi has some very good career numbers against Toronto's hitters. Francisco Liriano has looked better to me in his last couple starts after coming back from an injury.

The Rays offense has been terrible against lefties this year. The Blue Jays bullpen has quietly been one of the best in baseball in the last month or so.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Diego Padres aren't a team I'm high on this year, but I have to play them in this one. The Reds are a team I follow closely as I've been a lifelong Reds fan. I've watched Amir Garrett pitch in his last few starts and something is definitely wrong with him. Garrett is having major mechanical issues at a minimum, and I think he has nagging injuries that are a problem. Hitters have been smoking the ball off Garrett of late, and I expect him to be sent back down to Triple A soon.

Jhoulys Chacin has been tremendous at home this year. Chacin has a 1.58 ERA at home on the year, and he has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his 6 home starts this year. 

The Reds are an awful 5-19 in their last 24 road games. Cincinnati's bullpen has fallen off badly in the past month.

Take San Diego here. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The San Francisco Giants start Ty Blach in this one. Blach has a 1.76 ERA at home this year. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts at home. 

Jason Vargas has had a lot of good fortune this year. Vargas is stranding 86.2% of runners on base. That kind of number isn't going to continue for the season. Vargas has been much better at home than on the road in the last couple years.

Blach doesn't rely on strikeouts, rather he relies on inducing weak contact and I think that makes him a tougher matchup for the Royals offense. The Giants have a better bullpen than do the Royals. 

Salvador Perez is questionable for Kansas City in this one. 

The Giants are better than their record would indicate. I'm low on the Royals. 

Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star Play Under on Indians/White Sox.*

I am currently traveling and unable provide a full writeup as I normally do. This selection has been researched and analyzed as all of my plays are. Full writeups will be back in a few days. Thanks for understanding and good luck on this selection and all of your plays today.

Start the week off right with a winner! Guaranteed! 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5*

Asher Wojciechowski is a guy I'll look to fade for the Reds. He has never had much success in the minors, and now the Reds expect him to have success in the bigs right away. The Dodgers are one of the best in the majors at hitting righties.

Alex Wood has been tremendous all year. The Dodgers also have a big bullpen advantage.

*4 Star Play Under on A's/Rays under in 2nd game of Doubleheader*

This is a doubleheader and in many of these we see some of the top players sit. With weaker lineups and one of the top under umpires in the game, Doug Eddings behind the plate, this is a good value on the under.

Take note that this play is on game two with Manaea and Andriese as the starters

*3 Star Play* on Blue Jays Moneyline. Seattle has dealt with a ton of injuries lately. Toronto started the season injured but they have gotten healthy of late. Toronto has the better starting pitcher here and this is a cheap price.

I am currently traveling and unable provide a full writeup as I normally do. This selection has been researched and analyzed as all of my plays are. Full writeups will be back in a few days. Thanks for understanding and good luck on this selection and all of your plays today.  

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pittsburgh Pirates take on Edinson Volquez here. Volquez is coming off that magical no-hitter in his last outing. There's nothing in his profile that suggests he can keep that level up though, and the Marlins have been really bad on the road all year.

The Marlins have lost 6 straight times when Volquez starts for them on the road. 

Gerrit Cole has pitched into some bad luck this year, and I see him as a pretty high upside guy. The Pirates have the much better bullpen here as well.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees Total* The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox square off on Thursday night. The Yankees start Michael Pineda here and the Red Sox start David Price. 

Both of these pitchers are somewhat inconsistent, but they have huge strikeout potential. They both have a tendency to give up more home runs than normal, but with cool temperatures and winds blowing in at about 8 to 10 mph at gametime.

In the past five years, the under has cashed at a 59% clip at Yankee Stadium with a temperature of 70 degrees or lower and wind in of 5 mph or more.

Vic Carapazza is one of the best under umpires in baseball, and he's behind the plate here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Diego Padres are awful against left handed pitching. How bad? The Padres have a miserable .191 batting average against lefties. 

Patrick Corbin hasn't been pitching very well, but I think facing this Padres lineup with the roof closed at Chase Field will help him. 

The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a left handed starter. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Corbin's last 6 home starts.

I expected a price quite a bit higher than this. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson and San Francisco's Ty Blach have both pitched well in recent outings, but long term looks at their stats suggest these guys are no better than mediocre.

Tom Woodring is the umpire here, and he is a very good over umpire. He'll pinch the zone and make things more difficult on the starters here.

The over is 19-10-3 in the Giants road games so far this year. The over is 21-12 in the Brewers 33 home games this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline SMASHER* The Cleveland Indians start Mike Clevinger here, and he has impressed me this year. His fastball has more movement than I expected, and Clevinger is clearly better now than he was last year.

Antonio Senzatela only threw 7 starts above the high single A level, and I think he is a guy who will come back down to earth in the long run. Senzatela isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he isn't as good as he has looked this year. His strikeout rate is very low.

The Rockies are improved, but they aren't as good as their record. The Indians are better than their record. 

Cleveland has a big bullpen edge, especially with Ottavino out with an injury for the Rockies. 

Taking the AL over the NL in an interleague game is a strong long term angle too.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Monday Night MONEY* The St. Louis Cardinals were swept away by the Chicago Cubs, but now they go to take on a struggling Reds team. Cincinnati was in first place for a while, but now they are 25-30 and playing some bad baseball. 

The Reds bullpen once ranked as one of the best in the league for a while this year, but they have come back down to earth. Both Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler are questionable for Monday's game as well. Cincinnati is banged up, and the Reds were never as good as their early record.

The Cardinals offense is one of the best in the NL against right handed pitching. Asher Wojciechowski has never fulfillled his potential, and I don't see him as the answer for the Reds. This Cardinals lineup will make him work hard to get outs. 

Carlos Martinez is a much improved pitcher, and he gives the Cardinals a clear advantage. The Cardinals are 24-8 in his last 32 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Trevor Williams here. Williams is considered a decent prospect. He was bad in his first few starts in the majors, but he has been much better in his last couple starts. He has no walks and nine strikeouts in his last two starts. 

Tyler Pill pitched himself into trouble and got out of it nicely in his first start, but everything about his past suggests that Pill isn't very good. In his time in Triple A, Pill was routinely hit very hard. He isn't considered a high end prospect by any means. Pill had a 7.45 ERA in Triple A two years ago. Last year, he had a mediocre 4.02 ERA after being sent down to Double A.

The Pirates own a pretty clear bullpen advantage. In the past 30 days, the Pirates bullpen has been much better. They own a FIP that ranks 7th best in the majors during that time.

The Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 12-5 in their last 17 meetings with the Mets. 

Take the Pirates at this plus money price. 

*4 Star MLB MAJOR MISMATCH* The Texas Rangers dominated the Houston Astros last year, and Houston's players have talked about how bad they want to exact revenge on them this year. Houston is the much better team this year, and they have several huge advantages in this one.

Lance McCullers Jr. is going to be in the conversation for the AL Cy Young award if he keeps pitching like he has this year. The big key for him has been improving his control. McCullers has elite strikeout stuff, and without putting so many men on base he can be dominant. 

Andrew Cashner has walked more guys than he has struck out. Don't let his low ERA fool you. Cashner isn't good. His SIERA is 6.00 and Cashner is going to be rocked in starts to come. 

Houston is white hot on offense right now, and I expect them to get to Cashner in a big way. The Astros have a huge bullpen advantage as well. 

Houston is a hungry team in this series and they have a lot of momentum (which can be important in baseball with it being such a long season).

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years. Eddings has been on an over run of late, but this guy is unquestionably a good under umpire. In fact, he is one of the best. Anytime you are getting 2% or more of a difference in called strikes from the average umpire, this is a good under umpire.

David Price wasn't extremely sharp in his first start back, but he wasn't bad either. A key thing I noticed was his velocity was up a good amount from last year. Price has a 2.25 ERA in three starts with Eddings behind home plate. He also has a solid 3.14 ERA in 10 career starts in Baltimore.

Dylan Bundy has changed the way he is pitching this year. Bundy has been getting good results out of his slider. The Red Sox lineup has been really inconsistent this year, and they are without Dustin Pedroia right now.

The wind is set to be blowing in at about 6 mph at gametime for this one. With the wind blowing in and a total of 7.5 or higher, the under is a whopping 126-70 in the last 196 games at Camden Yards.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Great American Ballpark has the nickname "Great American Smallpark." While the park doesn't always play extremely small, when the weather heats up, the park is definitely very tough on pitchers.

In the past ten years, when the temperature is 77 degrees or warmer during a game played in Cincinnati, the over is 193-141 (57.7%). 

R.A. Dickey has been awful this year. He appears to have stayed around too long in the majors. He isn't fooling anyone right now, and his advanced metrics don't show many signs of things getting better. 

Scott Feldman is giving up a lot of line drives, and I suspect he'll give up a lot of homers in the warm weather in Cincinnati this summer. 

The Braves have some red hot hitters in their lineup, and the Braves bullpen is bad. The Reds have been better than expected on offense, and the Reds bullpen has fallen off pretty dramatically in recent weeks.

Mark Wegner is one of the better over umpires in baseball and he's behind the plate here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* In the long run, home teams have done very well in early games on the weekend in Major League Baseball. In a large sample size of more than 2,000 games, betting the home team to win in game played between noon and 3 pm local time brought an ROI of 4.9% and made just over $10,000 for $100 per game bettors. 

The Blue Jays are rolling now that they have gotten healthy again. This is a team that was predicted by many to finish ahead of the Yankees before the season started, and I think they do have a higher upside than New York.

Jordan Montgomery is a mediocre lefty at this stage of his career, and the Blue Jays middle of the order has a reputation for bashing left handed pitching.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals lead the majors in runs scored per game at 5.50. Washington's offense is very capable of going off at any time. Andrew Triggs started the year nicely, but his last couple starts have had some real glaring issues show up. I'm starting to wonder if Triggs is injured in some way. Triggs has lost nearly 3 mph off his fastball in his most recent starts. 

Triggs isn't necessarily a hard thrower to start with, but when you start throwing 88 mph fastballs instead of 91 mph fastballs, big leaguers usually make you pay. Triggs has allowed 6 runs in each of his last two starts. He has a 2.64 ERA on the year, but a 4.20 SIERA. 

Stephen Strasburg has been locked in of late. Last game, he blew away 15 Padres in 7 innings pitched. Strasburg's velocity is the highest it has been in the past four years, which suggests to me that he is completely healthy this time around. 

I hadn't circled this game before the lines came out, but I made this line -155, so I see solid value here. Additionally, a closer look at Triggs make me like the Nationals chances of getting to him.

The Nationals are 22-8 in Strasburg's last 30 road starts.

Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Cleveland Indians are much better than their record would indicate. I expect this Indians team to hit their stride soon and take over in a big way atop the American League Central. 

The Indians have had some really bad batted ball luck on offense and when on the mound in high leverage situations. This kind of thing evens out over time. The Tribe are getting some much better contributions from Edwin Encarnacion in recent games, and Francisco Lindor is a star. Michael Brantley is looking healthy once again as well, and that's a big help.

Jason Vargas started the season pitching brilliantly, but of late he has slowed down quite a bit. Vargas has a 2.39 ERA on the year, but a 4.42 xFIP and a 4.20 SIERA. Vargas had a game xFIP's of less than 4 in each of his first starts this year. In each of his last 6 starts, his game by game xFIP was 4.54 or worse every single game. He's stranded 84% of runners this year and that isn't sustainable. 

Josh Tomlin has held KC batters to a .296 OBP in his career. Vargas has allowed Tribe hitters an OBP of .364. The Indians are 17-4 in Tomlin's last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Even money for the much better team with a huge bullpen advantage? I'll take it.

Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Eduardo Rodriguez has really impressed me this year. Rodriguez had a 4.71 ERA last year and his ERA is down to 2.77 so far this year. He has been a prized prospect for a long time, and now he is taking that next step. 

Two years ago, Rodriguez had a swinging strike rate against of 7.9%. Last year it went up to 10.6% and this year it is 12.0%. The movement on his fastball is much better this year 

Rodriguez has a great history against the Orioles. While I don't see pitcher/hitter past matchup results as a good sole reason to make a bet, when they align with my original lean it is very helpful. Rodriguez has held Orioles hitters to a .229 average in a fairly large sample size. Even better is his ERA at Camden Yards is only 1.34. That's in six starts. 

Wade Miley is a regression candidate and his hard contact rate is the highest of his career. Opponents haven't been fooled very often by him this year. The Red Sox are without Pedroia, but they still have a very good offense.

The Red Sox have a big bullpen advantage, especially with Britton out for the Orioles.

Boston is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts overall. The Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts at Baltimore. A 20-0 angle. 

Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians are hitting only .236 against lefties so far this year. The Indians are better than that average against lefties, but they have been consistently better against right handed pitching than lefties over the last few years. 

Sean Manaea has some excellent stuff, and I expect him to have a lot of success in the majors. Manaea has improved his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA from last year. A horrible strand rate of just 59% means he is due for some positive regression as far as his ERA. Manaea is a young pitcher who has multiple go to swing and miss pitches. His swinging strikes rate is an awesome 13.6%. That's a guy with a high upside. His one problem has been his control, but he'll be helped by a bigger strike zone than normal with Mark Ripperger behind home plate for this one. 

Mike Clevinger has developed into a better pitcher than many people expected him to be. Clevinger should have enough weapons to slow down this poor Oakland offense. He has been getting batters to swing at more bad balls this year, and that has brought his swinging strike rate up. 

Ripperger is a very good under umpire, and the weather should be good for an under here. The forecast calls for 65 degrees and winds in from center field at about 10 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather and the home plate umpire are two major reasons I'm taking the over in this game. The wind is blowing out to left center field in this game at about 12 mph. The home plate umpire is Sam Holbrook. You won't find a better over umpire than Holbrook.

Holbrook has called the lowest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire so far this year. The over has hit in 56.3% of games called by Holbrook in his career. 

Mike Fiers has been awful this year. Fiers has an ERA over 6 on the road this year (it was 4.99 last year too). He has allowed a mind boggling 11 home runs in 24 innings on the road this year. The Twins have enough power with Holbrook squeezing the zone and the wind blowing out to knock a couple out here.

Jose Berrios is looking very good of late, but Houston's offense is as hot as anyone in baseball. The Twins bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, and even if Berrios pitches well the Astros are liable to torch the bullpen like they did yesterday.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* These bullpens both rank in the five worst bullpens in baseball. Tampa Bay's SIERA is actually the single worst of any team. Tampa Bay has spent up their bullpen the last couple nights and they had to call up a guy from the minors to be an extra reliever for this game. 

Matt Andriese is a serviceable pitcher, but this Rangers lineup is very good. Adrian Beltre is back in the lineup and that's a big key. Andriese isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game.

I've never been a fan of Nick Martinez. He may be slightly improved this year, but he is still giving up long balls at a high rate. This Tampa Bay team is second in the majors in home runs. They should give him trouble here.

Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire, and he's an excellent over umpire. 

The weather is heating up in Texas and the ball will be flying better in this park now. 

The over is 24-7-1 in Texas' last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Manny Gonzalez is one of the very best over umpires in the game. The over is 6-1 in his 7 games behind the plate this year. The over is 84-64 (57% wins) in his career.

Zach Davies is walking too many guys this year, and he is giving up more fly balls and home runs. Davies isn't a bad pitcher, but I do think this Mets offense that has been hot will put several across here.

Tyler Pill starts for the Mets here. Pill is making his big league starting debut. Pill had a 7.60 ERA two years ago in Triple A and a 5.60 ERA last year in Triple A. In five starts this year, he was successful there, but that was due to multiple fortunate factors. I don't think he is likely to be very good for the Mets in general, and this Brewers lineup has a lot of dangerous bats.

The wind is blowing out at 8 mph and at Citi Field all time with the wind blowing out 8 mph or more the over is hitting at a 57% clip.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Toronto Blue Jays start JA Happ here. I think Happ is a slightly above average lefty, and since the Reds aren't all that good against lefties, that should be good enough.

The biggest reason I'm making this play is a fade of Asher Wojciechowski. He simply hasn't proven to be very good in the minors in the past few years. In the last three years, his best ERA in Triple A was 4.74. He has been good in just five starts in the minors this year, but I don't see that being all that predictive of the future.

What about playing on a team that just won huge in their last game? An in depth query I ran showed this to be very successful. Betting the run line on a team that just won their last game by 8 runs or more with the following factors:

-They have won 55% of their games or less

-Their opponent has won 55% or less of their games

-It is a non-divisional game

This yields a 229-228 record and $100 per game bettors are up $8,291 on those plays. It's an ROI of better than 18%.

Take Toronto -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total Value* Bill Miller has been better to me when betting unders than any other umpire in the majors. More than 65% are strikes in games Miller umpires, which is 2% higher than the average umpire. That 2% doesn't sound like much, but trust me that makes a big difference. Miller is a great under umpire.

Chris Tillman has pretty good numbers in his career against the Yankees. He has only allowed one home run against this lineup in his career. Jacoby Ellsbury is out of the lineup and that hurts the Yankees some.

Luis Severino has really impressed me this year. He has taken the next step so far this year. Severino gave up 4 runs at Baltimore earlier this year, but that was due to poor batted ball luck. He has been great on the road overall this year.

The under is 20-8 in Tillman's last 28 home starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers are very good on their home field. Martin Perez starts this one, and he wouldn't strike you as a guy you want to back all that often, but he has been good at home at building bankrolls.

Perez is elite at suppressing home runs. Tampa Bay is second in the majors in home runs, and the Rays need to hit home runs to win. Tampa Bay isn't the type of team that will typically string together a bunch of hits. 

Erasmo Ramirez closed Sunday's game with a perfect inning and now turns around and starts the next day. Talk about a weird situation. This can't be helpful for a starter to be thrown out of his rhythm. I know Ramirez pitched from the bullpen in the past, but it still is at least somewhat of a negative.

According to their manager, the Rays bullpen has two long guys ready for this one in Whitley and Stanek. Whitley has a 1.31 ERA, but a 5.15 FIP. Stanek has a 2.25 ERA and a 6.39 xFIP. The Rays bullpen in general isn't any good, so they don't have a bullpen advantage over Texas like most teams do.

The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of a week or more. The Rangers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a right handed starter. A 12-0 angle.

Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* I think we are getting to a place where the Chicago Cubs are being undervalued. The Cubs have been burning money this year (so have the Padres), but the Cubs upside is unquestionably high, and they'll hit their stride sooner rather than later.

Kyle Hendricks starts here and after a poor beginning of the season, he has settled in of late. Hendricks has a great history against San Diego as well. In 5 career starts against the Padres, Hendricks has a dazzling 1.56 ERA.

Jarred Cosart walks more people than he strikes out. That's not a winning formula. Cosart has a SIERA over 6, and I consider him a far below average starting pitcher. 

The Cubs are coming off an embarrassing series against the Dodgers, and I think that raises the chances of them being fully invested in this series against the lowly Padres.

The Cubs are 6-0 in Hendricks' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the Cubs -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Arizona Diamondbacks are hitting .273 against right handed pitching this year. They are scoring 5.52 runs per game against right handed pitching. Trevor Williams is worse than the average right handed pitcher right now. Williams has a 5.93 ERA and a 4.89 FIP on the year thus far. He doesn't have good command of many of his pitches, and that leads to a lot of mistakes.

Randall Delgado starts for the Diamondbacks. He's been tried several times as a starter, and it never really worked out. Because they are short on starters with Shelby Miller out with an injury, the DBacks turned to Delgado again. I don't see it working out this time around either. Delgado has a history of wildness in a starting role.

The Pirates offense should improve with Polanco back and Adam Frazier swinging a red hot bat. Andrew McCutchen isn't what he used to be, but he is better than his current numbers suggest.

The over is 5-0-1 in the Pirates last 6. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. The over is 5-0-1 in the Pirates last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Delgado's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. An 18-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Many people know that the Washington Nationals are excellent against left handed pitching. Washington is first in wOBA against lefties. Who is second? The Chicago White Sox. 

The White Sox have a .365 wOBA, which is almost equal to Washington's .368. The White Sox have a .288 batting average against lefties and are averaging 5.88 runs per nine innings off lefties.

The Boston Red Sox stunned me by getting shut out by Christian Bergman yesterday, but this is a good offense. Boston has a .350 OBP vs. lefties and they are averaging 4.54 runs per nine innings off them.

David Price was rocked in Triple A in his rehab starts. Price was very inconsistent last year. He is on a pitch count here as well.

David Holmberg starts for the White Sox, and he isn't big league material as a starter.

The wind is blowing out at 15-20 mph during this one. This has led to better than 55% overs in the past 10 years.

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* Clayton Kershaw takes the mound against Jon Lester in a terrific pitching matchup to close this series of two of the best teams in the National League. 

Blindly betting the under has been a good move when Kershaw is on the mound. The under is 80-58 in Kershaw's 138 starts in the majors. That's a 58% win rate for the under. 

Kershaw is baseball's best pitcher, and his consistency is what impresses me the most. He has a 2.18 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Cubs. How has Kershaw done with home plate umpire Dan Iassogna behind the dish? Kershaw has a dazzling 1.17 ERA in five career starts with Iassogna calling the balls and strikes.

Jon Lester is a really good lefty as well. As good as the Dodgers offense is against right handed pitching, the Dodgers struggle against lefties. The Dodgers are hitting .262 against righties and .238 against lefties this year. Lester has a 1.76 ERA in two starts with Iassogna. Lester also has great splits when pitching during the day. At night his ERA is 3.59 and during the day it is 3.12. 

These are two excellent bullpens which make me feel better about playing a low under.

Both pitchers are at their best when facing a good team. The under is 28-12-1 in Lester's last 41 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 35-14-2 in Kershaw's last 51 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Kershaw's last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs.

Take the under big. 

Top Total of the Week 

*3 Star Play on Arizona* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Patrick Corbin here. Corbin is showing some signs of improving again after a bad season last year. Corbin was excellent when he first got up to the majors, but an injury hampered him recently. Corbin is throwing harder than he ever has before, and his swinging strikes rate is up this year. He is also giving up less hard contact.

If you had bet $100 on Patrick Corbin and the Diamondbacks on the road in each of his 49 career road starts you would be 27-22 and up $808. 

Jimmy Nelson is a mediocre right handed starter. The Diamondbacks rank first in the national league in offensive production against right handed pitching. They were stymied yesterday, but I expect them to bounce back here.

The Brewers are 5-15 in Nelson's last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record. 

When Nelson starts at home, betting on the road team (against Nelson and the Brewers) has been very profitable. How much so? Overall it is 27-16 (+$831 on a $100 per bet scale). Narrow that down to betting the road team that is between -150 and +115 on the moneyline, and you would be 22-5 (+$1,378).

Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Boston Red Sox start Rick Porcello, who hasn't been good this year on the surface. I don't really like Porcello as a pitcher all that much, but if you look deeper at his statistics you'll see that he is about the same pitcher he was last year. His xFIP and SIERA are actually slightly better this year than they were a year ago. He has had bad batted ball luck this year.

Christian Bergman was absolutely torched for 14 hits and 10 runs in his last start. He had one good start this year and that was against the Oakland A's. This isn't anything close to the A's offense that he'll face on Sunday. Boston's offense is one of the best in the majors. Bergman is very vulnerable to the home run ball, and he's backed by a bullpen that is worn out.

Boston has a big edge offensively. Porcello is the much better starter as well. The bullpen edge for Boston is significant.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Angels* The Los Angeles Angels are a mediocre American League team. Playing on a mediocre AL team against a team from the National League has been a great bankroll building strategy in the last few years. The AL is the better conference again this year, and I'll look to go with that trend once again.

Matt Shoemaker has a very high upside. He is a streaky pitcher who threw a shutout in his last game. Shoemaker always starts slowly and typically rounds into form as we get deeper into the season. 

Jose Urena has a terrible statistical profile. He has stranded 81.4% of runners this year so far. That won't continue. Urena has a 3.08 ERA and a 5.64 xFIP. He is getting a swinging strikes rate of only 6.7%. He is due for serious regression.

The Angels bullpen is much better than the Marlins pen as well.

The Marlins are 1-11 in Urena's last 12 home starts.

Take the Angels. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Andrew Cashner overperformed his advanced metrics for a long time. Cashner finally allowed five runs in his last start. I think it keeps going. In fact, Cashner's profile suggests he is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. Cashner has a ridiculously bad 6.01 SIERA. His xFIP is 5.58 as well. That is far different than his ERA of 3.18. 

Cashner has walked more batters than he has struck out on the season! It hasn't been a fluke either. When you are 7 starts in and have that statistic, you know there is a major problem. Cashner has a swinging strike rate against of less than 6% (terrible). 

Joe Biagini has impressed me in his limited time as a starter. Biagini has very good velocity and his slider is an excellent pitch.

The Rangers bullpen is one of the five worst in the majors. The Blue Jays bullpen ranks in the top ten in the majors, and they have been excellent in the past month. 

Toronto's lineup is getting healthy and I think they run up a pretty big number here.

Take Toronto -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zack Greinke here. Greinke ranks in the top ten in the majors among starters in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. He's striking out 10.48 batters per nine innings and walking only 1.61. Greinke goes back to play against his old team here, and I expect him to be sharp.

Chase Anderson is a really streaky pitcher. His last few games show nothing that would make me expect him to have success against this very good Arizona lineup. Anderson has an xFIP of 5.29 or higher in four of his last five starts. 

Line drives have the highest hit probability of all batted ball types, and Anderson's line drive allowed rate is 23.8%, which is very high. Anderson has a 1.46 WHIP on the year. He's getting away with it fairly well on the year, but here he is up against an Arizona lineup that has a whopping .345 OBP against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are unlikely to let too many chances pass them by here.

Arizona has the better bullpen and the much better starter. With Ryan Braun out of the lineup, the DBacks have a clear edge offensively as well.

Arizona is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The DBacks are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 starts. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 games. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. A combined 33-0 angle.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Danny Salazar is much better than he has shown so far this year. Salazar goes up against a KC offense that is one of the five worst in baseball here, and I see this as a good chance for him to get back on track. 

Jason Vargas has been excellent this year. Vargas had one really bad start a couple outings ago, but overall he has been very solid. The Indians rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major statistical categories against left handed pitching. 

A key angle here is the weather as well. The wind will be blowing in from center field for this one. Progessive Field is one where the weather makes a big difference. 

Here's a great statistic to back this up. With the wind blowing in at least 6 mph (projected to be 10 mph here), and a total of at least 8, the under is 70-25 in the last 95 games played at Progressive Field. 

The under is 14-2 in Vargas' last 16 starts.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day PERFECTION Angle* The LA Angels go to Miami to take on the Marlins in an interleague series here.

I understand the Angels aren't very good against right handed pitching. They aren't typically a team I'd be looking to back in this situation. What is making me play this one? It's all about price. I would have expected the Angels to be no worse than +100 here, and getting a pretty decent plus money price is too much for me to pass up.

Dan Straily has a 3.70 ERA on the year, but his xFIP is 4.72 and his SIERA is 4.34. Straily isn't a bad pitcher, but he's not all that good either.

Jesse Chavez is a little worse than an average pitcher, but he's backed by the much better bullpen in this one.

What have the Marlins done to deserve being favored like this here? The Marlins are 1-10 in their last 11 home games. The Marlins are 15-36 in their last 51 interleague games.  

The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague home games. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or less. The Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 Friday games. A 17-0 angle.

This also nicely fits into an interleague system that has made big money. The system is to play on an American League team that is mediocre (between 47% and 53% win percentage on the year. The total needs to be 7.5 or higher. The opponent win percentage is 34% or higher. How good has it done? It's 517 wins and 331 losses in the last 10 years (61% winners). $100 bettors are up $12,904 playing each of those games that fit this system. The Angels fit this system.

Take the Los Angeles Angels.

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies are red hot right now. I have cashed with Colorado each of the last two nights, and I'm Colorado in the series finale here as well. Colorado has scored at least 6 runs in each of their last 6 games. This offense is on fire of late. 

The Phillies are 4-20 in their last 24 games. The wheels have completely fallen off for this team. Judging by the stories in the media now I have to wonder if the team chemistry is lacking right now also.

Tyler Anderson is definitely better than he has pitched this year. His xFIP is 3.65 while his ERA is above 6. He'll get better as the season goes. The Rockies bullpen is a good one.

The Phillies have the worst bullpen in baseball and Vince Velasquez hasn't been good this year. Velasquez is giving up nearly 2 home runs per nine innings and that is tough when going against a Rockies team with a lot of power. Colorado has even more power now with Trevor Story back in the lineup.

There is rain forecasted in the area here which increases the chance of a bullpen game and that definitely helps Colorado.

The Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 games against a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The Phillies are 0-9 in their last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. A 26-0 angle. 

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play on Pittsburgh Pirates* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Ivan Nova here. Nova has been really good with his fastball and curveball this year, and he's having the best season of his career thus far. Nova has walked only 0.58 batters per nine innings this year, and that kind of extreme low walk rate is a huge help. Nova has improved at inducing weak contact and not having to strike everyone out.

The Braves offense isn't the same without Freddie Freeman. He is the most reliable piece in the middle of their order. Atlanta can still score some runs, but the Braves start Bartolo Colon here, and he has been bad this year. Colon turned 44 years old yesterday, so nobody can blame him too much for struggling. Still, all of his advanced metrics and what I've seen when I watch him tells me he is a decent fade in the right spots. Colon is giving up more hard contact than he has in any other year in his very long big league career.

The Pirates as a short favorite are the play for me here.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox -1.5* The Boston Red Sox host the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. Chris Sale gets the ball in this one. He has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball so far this year. Sale is striking out an amazing 13.02 batters per nine innings this year. He is walking only 1.78 batters per nine innings. Sale's ERA is 2.19 and his FIP is an excellent 1.62. 

The Texas Rangers rank in the bottom five in all of baseball in almost all the major statistics when it comes to hitting off a left handed pitcher. Texas misses Adrian Beltre's great production against lefties, and the Rangers have too many guys who strikeout very often. 

Martin Perez has a career ERA on the road of almost 5. Perez is up against a Boston lineup that is excellent against lefties. They have a .346 OBP against lefties this year. 

The Red Sox have a huge edge in all these areas- starting pitching, bullpen, and offense. They are also have a small edge when it comes to defense.

It's an expensive price for a run line, but I see value.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies are playing with a ton of confidence and they are up against a Philadelphia Phillies team that is laying worse than anyone in the majors right now. The Phillies are 4-19 in their last 23 games. 

Philadelphia has the worst bullpen in baseball. The Phillies also have a lineup that is far less than reliable. The Phillies have scored 2 runs or less in 4 of their last 8 games overall. 

Jeremy Hellickson isn't very good, and he's getting too much respect from the oddsmakers based on the team going 8-1 in his games this year. My issue with that is: Hellickson has pitched terribly and the team has just happened to win games he pitches in. I don't think that continues. Hellickson has a FIP over 5, and he is striking out less than 4 batters per nine innings.

Colorado's Tyler Chatwood has been great to back on the road in the last couple seasons. I don't love Chatwood as a pitcher, since he puts a lot of guys on base, but the Phillies are a mess right now. Also, Colorado's bullpen is much improved and they represent a huge advantage over the Phillies in the pen.

The Rockies have scored 42 runs in their last five games. I don't see the Phillies being a good team to stop them from keeping their hot offense going with a subpar starter and a terrible bullpen.

The Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a 40% or lower win percentage. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the NL West. The Phillies are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. A 19-0 angle.

Take Colorado.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jose Berrios has been one of the most highly touted pitching prospects in baseball the last few years. Berrios struggled in his first couple trips to the big leagues, but he has been great this year in a two game sample size.

Berrios had a 1.13 ERA in six starts in Triple A for the Twins this year. He has a 0.59 ERA in two starts in the big leagues so far this year. Improved control has been the biggest key for Berrios.

Chris Tillman isn't a special pitcher, but he isn't bad either. He has a home ERA of 4.01 in his career at Baltimore. The Twins are hitting only .259 off of him in his career. 

The key here is the situation. It's a get away day game with a start of 12:35 pm EST. These are the games where a key player or two usually sits out for some rest. The wind is scheduled to be blowing in from right field here as well at about 10 mph.

At Baltimore, with the wind blowing in the under has been a great play in the past. The under is 126-70 (64.2%) with the wind blowing in at Baltimore. 

Day game unders with the wind blowing in and the total of at least 8.5 are hitting 55.5% in the last 8 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It is really rare to see a Clayton Kershaw game at Dodger Stadium with a total of 7. Kershaw and the Dodgers are big favorites once again here. The likelihood of the Dodgers batting only 8 times has to be accounted for here. Kershaw is the most dominant pitcher in the game, and the Cardinals aren't very good against lefties. St. Louis ranks 20th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties.

Lance Lynn has pitched well against the Dodgers in his career. The under is 6-1 in Lynn's last 7 starts against the Dodgers. The under is 5-1 in his six starts at Dodger Stadium.

Overall, the under is an impressive 79-58 in Kershaw's 137 home starts in his career. That's a 57.7% winning percentage. 

When was the last time a Kershaw home start had a total of 7 runs? It was September 28, 2012 against the Rockies. 

Solid value here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oakland A's have an underrated starter on the hill here in Jesse Hahn. Hahn was pitching injured much of last year, and it showed as he had a really bad season. His velocity is way up this year, and he is consistently hitting his spots.

Hahn has one of the lowest career home runs allowed per nine innings rate of any starting pitcher in the bigs. Hahn is perfect for this ballpark, which has a lot of room both in the outfield and in foul territory. 

Jose Urena has a 1.91 ERA and a 5.42 xFIP. Urena has been extremely lucky this year. He is stranding 88% of runners. He is striking out only 4.64 per nine innings. This will catch up to him in time.

The A's have a decided advantage in the bullpen. They'll also get back Yonder Alonso for this game, and he has been great this year.

The A's are 4-0 in Hahn's last 4 home starts. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a right handed starter. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. They are 0-5 in Urena's last 5 during game one of a series. A 19-0 angle.

Take Oakland. 

*4 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* Dylan Covey might be the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball right now. Jered Weaver would have had a good argument, but he is one the disabled list now. Covey only pitched six times above high A ball in the minor leagues, and it is showing in a big way.

Covey's biggest problem is he allows all sorts of homers. He is allowing almost 3 home runs per nine innings. Chase Field is one of the most homer friendly parks in baseball, and Arizona ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. I think Covey gets lit up in this one.

Patrick Corbin isn't great, but he is certainly better than Covey. The White Sox lineup has been inconsistent in the last few weeks. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been a very nice surprise, and I rate them slightly higher than the White Sox bullpen.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*4 Star Play on Houston Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros start Lance McCullers in this one. McCullers has one of the highest upsides of any young pitcher in the game. McCullers is striking out 10 batters per nine innings pitched. He's cut his walk rate in half since last year, and that was really the one chink in his armor before. McCullers has a career ERA of just 2.11 at home.

Jordan Zimmermann is getting absolutely crushed on a consistent basis right now. Zimermann has a 6.25 ERA and a 6.06 FIP. He is giving up a ridiculous amount of hard hit balls this year. In his career, Zimmermann has allowed 28.2% of balls to be hard hit. This year that number has jumped to 42.3%.

The Tigers bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. The Astros might have the best bullpen depth of any team in the majors. They are definitely a top three bullpen.

Take Houston -1.5.

*3 Star Play on Orioles Moneyline* There is no way Ervin Santana can keep pitching this way. It is only a matter of time until Santana regresses to the mean. Opponents have a .143 batting average on balls in play this year. That number was .285 each of the last two seasons. He has stranded 90.7% of runners this year. His career average is 73%. 

Dylan Bundy has pitched at least six innings in each start this year. In only one of those starts has he allowed more than 3 runs. Bundy has been much better at home in his career. 

I'm not convinced the Twins are as good as their record. They are certainly better than last year, but I think they are due to fall off the pace pretty soon. 

Baltimore is 55-23 in their last 78 home starts vs. a right handed starter. 

Take the Orioles. 

*5 Star MLB Moneyline TOP Play of the Week* The Colorado Rockies are really playing some good baseball. When good teams get on a nice run on a road trip, they can be a good team to back since their prices will still manageable. 

In this one, we will fade a Phillies team that looks absolutely hapless right now. The Phillies are 4-18 in their last 22 games. Zach Eflin starts here, and he isn't a guy I rate highly at all. Eflin is striking out only 4.45 batters per nine innings in the majors. That's one of the lowest rates of any starting pitcher. He is prone to giving up the long ball and the Rockies have plenty of home run power.

German Marquez has impressed me this year. His fastball averages 94.5 mph, and his fastball has some really nice movement on it. 

The Rockies bullpen is much better than it has been in the past. The Phillies bullpen is the worst in the majors. Huge advantage here for Colorado in the pen.

The Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. They are 0-4 in Eflin's last 4 starts. They are also 0-4 in Eflin's last 4 starts following a team loss. A 17-0 angle.

Take Colorado. 

MLB Moneyline TOP Play of the Week

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cleveland Indians are way better than their record. Cleveland is going to have a great season, and I'll look to back them if the oddsmakers are going to be low on them as it appears they are on in this game. 

The Cincinnati Reds aren't as good as they looked early in the season. They have fallen off badly of late, and I look for that to continue. Cincinnati's Scott Feldman is a below average starter. The Reds bullpen is improved, but they are obviously not at the same level of the Indians bullpen.

The Indians offense has underachieved this year, and they are going to heat things up in the long run. The Tribe have the most dominant bullpen in baseball, and that will help them win a lot of close games.

The American League continuously dominates the National League in interleague play. This line makes no sense at all to me. I'll gladly take the Indians at this price.

The Indians are 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams. The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Reds are 1-8 in their last 9 games. A 19-1 angle.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline* The Tampa Bay Rays moneyline has caught some serious steam on Pinnacle today, and that is the sharpest book of all of them. 

Pinnacle steam has to be respected because steam moves at Pinnacle in the past ten years are up 280 units based on a one unit per play scale. That's some major winning. 

Tampa Bay was a lean of mine last night, and with Tampa Bay being steamed two separate times today at Pinnacle, I'm going to make this a play.

Here is a great system backing this one. With at least two steam moves at Pinnacle and the following factors

-The home team has been at home for less than 6 games in a row.

-The road team has been on the road for at least 4 games in a row.

-It is game 40 or later in the season

-The moneyline is -100 to -145.

In this spot, taking the steamed side is a whopping 54-16 (77% winners). That's pretty amazing considering the small amount of juice here. 

Jake Odorizzi has a 2.82 ERA at home in the last four years. I'll back him and the Rays here.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres are the worst team in baseball. They have no areas of strength on this team. Arizona is one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far. Arizona has drilled San Diego in the first two games of this series, and I think they'll get the upper hand again here.

Zack Godley has been pitching really well this year. He is allowing only 12.2% line drives on the year, which is great since those have the highest chance of being a hit. Godley is also getting a ton of ground balls and balls that are not hard hit.

Clayton Richard's velocity is down, and he's giving up a lot more hard hit balls of late. The Diamondbacks finished first in the majors in wOBA against lefties last year, and they are above average against lefties again this year.

The DBacks have a big offensive advantage here and a big bullpen advantage.

Arizona is 5-0 in their last 5 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring five runs or more. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a right handed starter. A 28-0 angle. 

Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez here. Rodriguez was a guy who there were very high expectations for a long time ago, and he struggled a bit in his early time in the majors. He is putting it together this year. Rodriguez hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last six starts. He has a FIP of 3.20 or lower in each of those starts. He is striking out 10.23 batters per nine innings, which is easily the best of his career.

Andrew Triggs has allowed 2 runs or less in six of his eight starts this year. Triggs gets soft contact and uses a deceptive delivery to make things difficult on batters who don't see him on a regular basis.

Yonder Alonso is doubtful for this game for the A's, and he's been the best hitter on the team. The A's offense is 23rd in weighted on base average against lefties in the majors. 

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here, and that is definitely good for the under. He's a solid under umpire overall. The under is 21-7 in his last 28 Sunday games behind the dish.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright are following similar paths in their careers. Both were excellent pitchers a few years ago, but things have changed in a big way. Interestingly, these both were guys who had great control a few years ago. Now, both of them have doubled their walk rate from about 5 years ago. They are getting less strikeouts and a lot more hard contact.

The Giants offense has been much better on the road than at home. The Giants are 14-7-2 to the over in their road games this year.

The Cardinals are excellent against right handed pitching, and they have a terrible defense that costs them a run or two a game many times. The over is 24-14 for the Cardinals this year. This is an offense that has finally gotten healthy and they should put up a lot of runs this year.

Tom Hallion is the umpire here and he ranks among the bottom 15 in the majors in the past five years in strikes called.

The over is 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Cards last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0 in Wainwright's last 6 starts after the Cardinals score 2 runs or less. The over is 3-0 in Cain's last 4 starts vs. the Cardinals. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Perfection DOG Of the DAY* The Texas Rangers have won 10 straight games. It is pretty rare that you'll see a team playing this well dogged by this much to anyone. In this case, I think they are dogged by a large margin to a team that is no better than mediocre, especially in its current state. 

Detroit is without Victor Martinez for this one and Miguel Cabrera is questionable. Those are their top two hitters and that is clearly a big issue. The Tigers are a rare team with a bullpen worse than the Rangers.

Justin Verlander's peripherals suggest some trouble. This year, 38% of batted balls against him have been hard hit. That is the highest percentage by a wide margin in the last few years for him. 

A.J. Griffin has allowed a grand total of 4 earned runs in 4 road starts this year. The Tigers lineup is good, but Griffin does have good numbers against them in his career.

The Rangers are 10-0 in their last 10 games. They are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter. They are 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 road starts. They are 7-0 in their last 7 games played in Detroit. A 30-0 angle.

Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet on Saturday afternoon in Tampa Bay.

Masahiro Tanaka has allowed 16 runs in his last three outings. Tanaka has allowed 7 home runs in that three game span. He has an ERA more than half a run higher in his career in day games, and this is a day game. 

Matt Andriese is a serviceable pitcher, but he is up against an excellent Yankees lineup. The Yankees are hitting 2.78 and averaging 5.91 runs per game against right handed pitching.

The Rays are quietly hitting the cover off the ball lately. Tampa Bay ranks in the top five in the majors in homers. The Rays are averaging 5.01 runs per game off right handed pitching.

The Rays bullpen is one of the five worst in the majors. The Yankees bullpen isn't nearly as good without a healthy Aroldis Chapman.

The over is 7-0 in the Yankees last 7 vs. the AL East. The over is 6-0 in Tanaka's last 6 following a team loss in their last game. The over is 8-0 in the Rays last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.35 or higher. A 35-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Washington -1.5* The Atlanta Braves are going to be down a lot offensively without Freddie Freeman. He is the most consistent hitter in this lineup, and he is the lefty in the middle of the lineup to break up a string of right handed hitters.

Bartolo Colon is giving up all kinds of hard contact this year. He is getting swinging strikes on a ridiculously low 5.4% of pitches. Colon is finally getting too old to be consistently solid anymore. The Nationals lineup is excellent, and they'll test him in a big way.

Max Scherzer has been very good this year. His control and command have impressed me, and he has good numbers against this Braves lineup.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Blue Jays gave up six runs in the first inning last night against the Braves. Toronto and Atlanta got into a bit of a scuffle late, and there is some animosity between these two teams.

Marcus Stroman is the ace of this Toronto staff. Toronto is coming off a couple straight bad losses against the Braves, and he needs to be the stopper. At this price, I see good value on backing Stroman and Blue Jays.

Stroman has a FIP of 3.36 on the year, which is the lowest of his career. His velocity is at the highest point of his career. In only one game so far this year does Stroman have a FIP over 4. He's been very consistently good.

Julio Teheran has been fade material at home of late. Teheran's velocity is down and his FIP and xFIP are much higher this year. He doesn't look healthy to me. 

The Braves are 5-17 in Teheran's last 22 home starts. The AL has dominated the NL in Interleague play in the past few years. 

Freddie Freeman will likely miss this game with a hand/wrist injury after getting hit by a pitch yesterday.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Boston Red Sox have been a great interleague team. Overall, the American League has dominated the National League, but Boston has topped the charts as far as taking advantage in interleague play. Boston is 24-9 in their last 33 interleague games. The Red Sox are a stunning 122-53 in their last 175 interleague games vs. a right handed starter.

Rick Porcello's ERA is a lot higher this year, but his xFIP and SIERA (sabermetric advanced metrics that essentially estimate what an ERA should be) are actually slightly lower than last year. Porcello isn't a great pitcher, but he usually gives his team a chance to win. Boston has an excellent bullpen as well.

Mike Leake is due for some major regression in the weeks ahead. Leake has a 1.94 ERA, but an xFIP of 3.62. The Cardinals bullpen has been a problem area all year long.

The Red Sox have the much better defense here. St. Louis has committed a whopping 32 errors on the year so far. 

A good price on the more complete team. 

Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Miami Marlins and Houston Astros are going in two completely different directions right now. Houston is 24-8 in their last 32 games. The Astros are playing like one of the best teams in baseball. Miami is 1-9 in their last 10 home games. The Marlins are 7-19 in their last 26 games. 

Lance McCullers is a budding star for the Astros. McCullers is taking that next step this year. He averaged 5.00 walks per nine innings last year. He is averaging only 2.42 walks per nine innings this year. He is averaging 10.61 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Jose Urena has a 1.98 ERA on the year, but that will not continue. His advanced metrics show he has been extremely lucky. Urena is striking out only 4.61 batters per nine innings. He is stranding 94% of runners and his BABIP against is only .259. Urena has a 1.98 ERA, but a 5.02 xFIP.

Houston rested Springer and Bregman last night, so they should be back in the lineup for this early game.

Houston has a big bullpen advantage in this one as well. 

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a good team, but they are much better against right handed pitching than lefties. The Dodgers are batting .274 against righties and .229 against lefties. 

Ty Blach has started two games against the Dodgers in his career. Both were against Clayton Kershaw. The Giants won one of those games 3-0, and lost the other 2-1. Blach is a lefty who pitches to contact and that has worked against the Dodgers in a small sample size.

Rich Hill is slated to start for the Dodgers. He is having blister problems. His walk rate this year is at an all time high. He struggled in both of his rehab starts, and I see no real reason to expect him to be good in this start. The Giants have a combined .375 average against Hill.

The Giants play the Dodgers very tough. They are 19-6 in their last 25 home games against the Dodgers. 

I rarely take the +1.5 line, but here I will. It's a low posted total, and these two play a lot of close games against each other. We don't have to lay much juice at all on this one.

Take the Giants +1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST BET* The Arizona Diamondbacks are better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Last year, Arizona was first in the majors against lefties in weighted on base average.

Tom Milone starts here for the Mets, and he is a subpar lefty. Milone doesn't have overpowering stuff, and he has always been very prone to giving up the home run ball. That's bad news at Chase Field where the roof should be open for this game. The ball flies extremely well with the roof open here.

Zack Greinke is pitching in fine form right now. Greinke has the highest swinging strike rate of his career right now. He is throwing his slider more often, and it is a pitch that most hitters can't touch.

The Mets bullpen is a dumpster fire right now. In the last 30 days, the Mets bullpen has a 5.73 ERA. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 3.28 ERA in the same period.

The Mets offense was really good for a long time, but they are short handed right now. They are up against an elite pitcher. The Diamondbacks should get to Milone here.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox* The Boston Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez. This is a guy who went through some growing pains, but he was always a very highly rated prospect. He's pitching great in his last few starts. In his last three road starts, he has allowed a total of 4 runs. In his last 5 starts, he has a FIP of 3.18 or lower in each of them.

Lance Lynn is due for some major regression. Lynn is giving up a lot more hard hit balls this year, but he has gotten some batted ball luck and he's stranding 86% of his runners.

The American League has dominated the National League in interleague play. The Red Sox are an amazing 121-53 in their last 174 interleague games vs. a right handed pitcher. The Cardinals are weak against lefties overall, and the Cardinals are 8-22 in their last 30 home interleague games vs. a left handed starter.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The under is a whopping 63-30-7 in the Rangers last 100 Sunday games. I hate putting too much stock in day of the week trends, but Sunday is consistently the best "under" day in the majors overall, so it is something to note. 

Both of these pitchers have excellent track records against their opponent on Sunday. Kendall Graveman has held Texas to a .210 average and .264 OBP in his career. A.J. Griffin has held Oakland to a .163 average and a .234 OBP in his career.

Jim Reynolds is behind the plate and he has changed his stripes a good deal in the past couple years. He was a big over umpire in the past, but he now ranks in the top 20% of umpires in most pitches called a strike. He shouldn't hurt the bet.

It's hot in Texas now, and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph. I ran a query on this situation and found that the under is 59-38 in Texas' last 97 home games with a temperature of 86 degrees or warmer and the wind blowing in. 

The under is 10-2 in the Rangers last 12 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers are playing some good baseball of late. They started the season slowly, but this team is too talented to be bad all year long. Texas' bullpen is improved of late, and the starting pitching has been good.

A.J. Griffin has been tremendous in his last few starts. Griffin has walked only four batters while striking out 23 in his last four starts. He has allowed only one earned run in his last three starts combined. 

Oakland is only 2-10 in their last 12 road games. They are 18-39 in their last 57 vs. the AL West. 

Kendall Graveman has a 3.53 ERA at home, but a 4.55 ERA on the road. Graveman is backed by one of the weaker offenses in the majors here. 

The oddsmakers are having trouble adjusting quick enough to the Rangers after their recent run.

Texas is 5-0 in Griffin's last 5 home starts. The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The Rangers are 6-0 in Griffin's last 6 vs. an AL West foe. The Rangers are 7-0 in Griffin's last 7 following a quality start in his last outing. A 23-0 angle. 

Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies start Tyler Anderson here. Anderson was off to a slow start to the season, but I think his long term numbers at Coors Field suggest he is a pretty solid pitcher. He'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that is really bad against left handed pitching. The Dodgers offense is a little bit banged up right now and Adrian Gonzalez is a key part of their lineup missing. 

Alex Wood is throwing the ball better than he has at any point during his career. Wood has a great 2.73 ERA and an even more impressive 1.91 FIP on the season. His strikeouts per nine innings are above 11, and his swinging strike rate is the highest it has been at any point in his career. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller has made me more money than any other umpire in the majors when it comes to betting on unders. He loves to ring people up, and his strikes called percentage is second of all the umpires in the past five years. 

With a high total and Miller behind the dish, I see this as a good value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Dylan Covey is definitely one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. In fact, I'm surprised the White Sox have kept him in the rotation as long as they have. Covey has some atrocious numbers this year. 

Covey has made 5 starts and his ERA is an awful 8.28. His FIP is 7.22, so he hasn't been all that unlucky either. He's just been bad. He's struck out only 11 batters in his five starters. He's also walked 11 batters. I don't know why the White Sox thought he would be successful as a starter though. He has thrown only 29 innings above the Single A level in the minor leagues. 

San Diego isn't a good team, and I really don't want to back them much at all this year. In this spot and at this price, I have to. Trevor Cahill has some really nice advanced metrics this year. He is striking out 11.21 per nine innings, and his offspeed stuff has been awesome this season.

The early sharp money is on the Padres pretty big. The fact that the sharps are on the Padres in a big way made me pay attention.

The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

Take San Diego. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox moved the start time up for this game to 1:05 because of the weather forecast. I initially overlooked this game because I saw it as a likely rainout, but with the moved start time, I see good reasons to take Boston here since the game should be able to be completed based on the current forecast. The rain is expected to start around 4 pm.

Chris Sale starts for Boston. He has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year. Sale has a 1.92 ERA and a 1.45 FIP on the season. He is striking out a ridiculous 12.72 batters per nine innings. The Tampa Bay lineup has combined to hit a miserable .126 against Sale. 

Blake Snell starts for the Rays, and he has had major control problems in his young career. Snell is walking 5.5 batters per nine innings. He has 3.96 ERA, but his FIP is 5.05. Snell puts himself in bad positions very often. Trying to constantly pitch out of jams is rough against a lineup like this Boston one.

The Rays have the much weaker lineup and the much weaker bullpen. They obviously are at a huge disadvantage in the starting pitching area.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Chicago White Sox are better than many expected them to be. They have a strong bullpen and that's a great start for being competitive. The White Sox are coming off a disappointing series against the Minnesota Twins, and I think they get back on track against the lowly San Diego Padres.

San Diego is coming off a really tough loss in Texas late on Thursday night. San Diego led the entire game before losing in the bottom of the ninth when Maurer blew the save. I believe the Padres have the worst team in baseball, and they are in for a very long season. The fact that they are in a difficult spot by losing late last night and traveling late into Chicago makes this a better situation to back the White Sox.

Taking American League teams in Interleague play over the last ten years has been a big money maker. 

The White Sox are 5-0 in Miguel Gonzalez's last 5 home starts. I'll take the short home favorite here.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The Marlins pitching staff has really fallen apart of late, and the bullpen is taxed right now. 

Jose Urena gets the start here, and I don't think he's the answer. Urena had a 6.13 ERA last year. His ERA looks great this year, but that is thanks to stranding 94.3% of runners. He is striking out only 4.22 batters per nine innings. Urena is going to regress to the mean soon. The Braves hitters have a .500 OBP against him, though it is in only 26 plate appearances. 

Mike Foltynewicz had a 4.31 ERA last year and he has a 4.55 ERA so far this year. He puts himself into bad pitch counts far too often, and that leads to mistakes. This is a guy with potential, but so far he has struggled to realize it. The Marlins hitters combine to have a .400 on base percentage against him in 50 plate appearances.

Both bullpens are bad and these offenses are improved. The over is 25-8-2 in the last 35 meetings between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open. The ball flies so well there with the heat and low humidity.

There are some great long-term numbers to prove this is a great over park with the roof open as it is scheduled to be in this one. The over is 150-99 (60.2%) in the last 249 games at Chase Field with the following conditions being met:

-A temperature of 75 degrees or warmer

-The total is 9.5 or lower

-The game is before the All Star Break (roof rarely open later in the season)

Greinke and Cole are both good pitchers, but both of these bullpens are trainwrecks. A total of only 8.5 at Chase Field with the roof open is only warranted if you have a guy like Clayton Kershaw pitching in my opinion, and he isn't pitching here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals collide in a get away day game in Tampa Bay here. These types of games are generally slightly lower scoring. It's the type of game where you see umpires call more strikes and hitters swing at more first pitches in hopes of keeping things moving. 

Mike Everitt is behind the plate here. On a get away day with a game start time of 5 pm eastern or earlier, the under is 40-24 in Everitt's last 64 games behind home plate. That's a nice 62.5% win percentage.

Jason Vargas and Jake Odorizzi have pitched really well this year, and they'll be facing a weak opposing offense here. Look for both guys to pitch fairly deep into the game.

The under is 12-1 in Vargas' last 13 starts. The under is 8-1 in Odorizzi's last 9 starts. The under is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 following a quality start in his last game. A combined 24-2 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Red Sox offense underachieved for a long time this year. Now, they are on fire. It can be pretty amazing how long these kind of offensive streaks can go for good offensive teams. The Red Sox will definitely finish the year as one of the best offenses in baseball. 

Boston has scored 35 runs in their last three games! They sat out a couple key hitters last night, and I would expect a full roster of starters for this one. Chase Anderson started the year red hot, but he has been shaky in his last couple starts. Anderson is a streaky pitcher and he's been missing his spots in his last couple starts. Boston should make him pay.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Kendrick is almost 33 years old, and he was never very good to start with. Kendrick had a 4.73 ERA in Triple A last year, and he had a 6.00 ERA in Triple A this year before being called up. That's not the type of guy that has much success against a good big league lineup very often. The Brewers have a lot of young talent in the order.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Washington Nationals are first in the majors in on base percentage against lefties, and it isn't even close. They won't keep up their current rate, but this team is excellent against lefties.

Wade Miley is due for some serious regression. Miley is stranding 90.2% of runners so far this year, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact. It's just a matter of time! The Nationals seem like as good of a candidate as any to be the team that starts his bad run. Washington hitters have an amazing .405 average against Miley in a pretty large sample size.

Stephen Strasburg keeps getting better. He is doing a great job mixing up his pitches, and I think he can keep the Orioles off balance here.

Getting this kind of price on the run line is too good to pass up.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Francisco Liriano is a very inconsistent pitcher. Liriano is capable of completely shutting anyone down, but he's also capable of struggling badly. Liriano pitches much better at home, and he's up against a Cleveland team that has been really bad against lefties this year.

Cleveland is hitting .213 against lefties on the year, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Danny Salazar is due for some positive regression. Opponents have a ridiculously high batting average on balls in play against him of .385. That will come down over time. Salazar has excellent stuff and he's up against a Toronto offense without Donaldson and Tulowitzki.

Vic Carapazza is the home plate umpire here, and he ranks in the top ten of my best under umpires in baseball. 

The under is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 4-0-1 in Salazar's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hector Santiago and Mike Pelfrey on the mound and the total is only 8.5? The cool temperatures in Chicago have something to do with it, but I can't pass up an over at this number with these two guys on the mound.

Santiago has a 2.78 ERA this year, but he has a 5.19 xFIP and a 4.74 SIERA. Those are sabermetric stats that show Santiago has been extremely lucky so far this year. He'll face a White Sox team that ranks in the top six in the majors against left handed pitching in almost all the major categories. 

Mike Pelfrey had 7.50 ERA in two starts in Triple A this year, and he has a 5.02 ERA in the big leagues thus far. This is a guy who is averaging a pathetic 2.51 strikeouts per nine innings this year. He isn't missing bats, and I don't expect Pelfrey to fool many Twins in this game. The Twins hitters have a lifetime batting average of .367 against him.

The over is 8-1 in the Twins last 9 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is way better than they showed early in the season. The Cardinals have broken out offensively in their last few games. St. Louis has now scored 30 runs in their last four games. I look for this to be one of the best offenses in the National League this year.

Adam Wainwright isn't the pitcher he used to be. Wainwright has an ERA over 6 this year. He isn't as bad as that number would suggest, but his road ERA in the last two years is well over 5. The Marlins offense is good enough with Yelich, Stanton, and Ozuna in the middle of the order to do some damage.

Both bullpens have been bad this year and that means scoring chances late in the game. 

Andy Fletcher is behind the plate here, and he ranks in the bottom ten umps in the majors in strikes called in the past five years.

The over is 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Miami between these teams. A 15-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cleveland Indians went up against the Toronto ace Marcus Stroman in game one of this series. Stroman was on his game and quieted the Indians in that contest. Cleveland gets a much easier test against Mike Bolsinger in this one.

Bolsinger wasn't very good in the minors through the years. He had one good year with the Dodgers in the big leagues, and in all his other stints in the big leagues he was hit hard. Last year, he had a 6.04 ERA in Triple A with the Blue Jays. Now, he's in the big leagues and up against a very good team.

The Indians start Carlos Carrasco, who is one of the top 15 or 20 pitchers in baseball today. Carrasco's stuff continues to get better as the years go by. He has great movement on his pitches. He'll face a Toronto lineup that is without Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson. 

The Indians have the huge edge in the bullpen as well.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEYMAKER* The San Francisco Giants are a mess right now. The Giants are without Denard Span and Brandon Crawford, and the Giants have been awful on offense lately. Scott Feldman just pitched a complete game shutout against them on Sunday. The Giants have lost 4 of their last 8 games by at least 8 runs. They haven't even been competitive.

Jacob Degrom is throwing the ball harder than he has at any time in his career. His swinging strike rate is up and his FIP and XFIP are quite a bit below his ERA. Degrom is a guy I'll look to back at home. In his career, Degrom has a sparkling 1.97 ERA at home. 

Matt Moore is giving up a ton of hard contact this year. 41.3% of balls in play against Moore have been hard hit, and that is an extremely high percentage. Basically, he hasn't been fooling anyone. 

The odds here imply only a 59.5% chance of the Mets winning. I don't like laying this big of a price very often, but I think it is warranted here. 

Take the Mets. 

*4 Star Yankees/Cubs Sunday Night CASH* The New York Yankees have taken the first two games in this series. The Yankees are definitely impressing so far this year, but I still believe they will come back down to earth a bit in the weeks and months to come.

The Chicago Cubs are only a couple games above .500, and the Cubs have been a disappointment so far on the year. I'm not worried about the Cubs, and I fully expect them to get it going soon.

Jon Lester is a good guy to be sending to the mound to be the stopper. Lester has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, and he's a guy that excels on the big stage.

Luis Severino has a bright future, but he'll be up against a hungry Cubs offense that is one of the best in baseball. I won't be surprised if he has a couple bad innings that cost him here.

I'm not usually one to subscribe to the "you can't sweep a team so I'll bet the other side in the last game of the series" theory, but in this case I find this to be a great spot for the Cubs. There's little doubt the Cubs will be the better team this year, and we're getting the defending champs at a very short price at home when they are looking to salvage a game.

The Cubs are 23-6 in Lester's last 29 home starts. The Yankees are 4-13 in Severino's last 17 starts.

Take Chicago.

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Coors Field is obviously the best hitters park in the majors. The weather conditions matter a lot at Coors though, and the weather conditions on Sunday are absolutely perfect for the over.

A warm temperature has meant higher scoring at Coors Field. Wind blowing out is obviously helpful as well, and that's what we'll have here. The average temperature during this game is expected to be 78 degrees. The wind will be blowing out at 10-15 mph.

In the past 75 day games at Coors Field with a temperature of 75 degrees or warmer and wind blowing out at 10 mph or more, the over is 50-25.

Tyler Chatwood has been terrible at home. He has a career 5.04 ERA at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks bullpen isn't any good, so even if Taijuan Walker slows down the Rockies lineup, Colorado should get plenty of scoring chances late.

Take the over.

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners offense has been much better of late. They were quieted by Yu Darvish last night, but lots of teams will be quieted by Darvish and his elite stuff. Seattle has a lineup full of guys who can hit lefties.

Martin Perez is a below average lefty. Seattle's lineup has a combined .425 on base percentage against Perez, so there are a bunch of guys who really hit him well. Nelson Cruz has 3 homers in 12 at bats against Perez. Kyle Seager has 4 homers in 32 at bats against Perez. 

Chase De Jong doesn't appear to be ready for the big leagues yet. De Jong has had serious control problems all through his minor league career, and he can't locate the zone at all in the bigs. His stuff isn't overpowering enough to overcome that.

The bullpens were both used up in a big way last night. The two starters have to go deeper here, and neither starter is good.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Chicago White Sox are one of the best teams in the majors against left handed pitching, but they are awful against right handed pitching. The White Sox have a ridiculously low .270 weighted on base average against right handed pitching. That's easily the worst of any team in baseball. 

Dylan Bundy has good stuff and if he can keep his control he is tough to hit. He'll be helped by an umpire (O'Nora) behind the plate who has a bigger strike zone than the average umpire. 

Dylan Covey is in way over his head right now. Covey has pitched a whopping 6 games above the high A ball level in the minors! How a guy can jump that fast to the majors makes no sense to me. Not surprisingly, Covey has a 7.29 ERA and a 6.95 FIP so far this year. Covey is striking out only 3.43 batters per nine innings, so he isn't fooling anyone.

The Orioles are 51-21 in their last 72 home games vs. a right handed starter. They might not have faced a worse starter in that 72 game span than Dylan Covey. 

The only reason this wasn't a 5 star play is Bundy is still young and inconsistent, but I'm happy to fade Dylan Covey and the White Sox against a right handed starter.

Take Baltimore -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been much better than expected this year. Eugenio Suarez's red hot start has been a big catalyst. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler have been very good as well. Everyone expects Joey Votto to be great, and he has been as per the norm. 

The under is 11-3 in the San Francisco Giants 14 home games this year. The over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games. The Giants and Reds have played a bunch of high scoring games against each other in the last few years. The over is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings. The over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings between them in Cincinnati.

Ty Blach is a pitch to contact guy. He's averaging less than 4 strikeouts per nine innings. That's extremely low. Amir Garrett was awesome in his first few games but the advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate overall and I suspect he'll have plenty of growing pains.

Both teams have been better against lefties than righties on the year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on the Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians are one of the best teams in baseball. They have started slowly, but I trust them to have a very good season again. The Royals are going to be one of the worst teams in the American League. Kansas City isn't even close to the team they were a couple years ago.

Cleveland's Josh Tomlin has pitched into some terrible luck this year. He has an ERA of 8.87 but a FIP and XFIP of a very respectable 3.77 and 3.38. Tomlin is up against a weak Royals offense here. 

The Royals start Jason Vargas here. Vargas has pitched really well this year. This play isn't a fade on him, but the team around him.

The Royals are at a severe disadvantage when it comes to offense, bullpen, and even their defense. Only the starting pitcher do they have an edge. 

Getting one of the best teams in baseball at almost even money is too cheap here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB TGIF Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas Rangers send Yu Darvish to the mound while the Seattle Mariners send Yovani Gallardo to the hill. This is a really big starting pitching mismatch. Darvish has had a couple hiccups, but he has some of the best stuff in the game, and he pitches really well away from home. Gallardo is near the end of his career, and his velocity is terrible now. I don't see things getting better for him.

The Texas Rangers have had some bad bullpen collapses this year, so the public perception would be that the Rangers bullpen is worse than Seattle's. The statistics show that it hasn't been though. Seattle has the worst bullpen ERA in baseball and the Rangers are 4th worst. All three of the FIP, XFIP, and SIERA (sabermetrics gauges) have the Rangers as having the better bullpen as compared to the Mariners.

The Rangers are 4-1 in Darvish's last 5 starts against Seattle. At this price, I'm on the Rangers.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox are too big of an underdog here. Miguel Gonzalez is going back to pitch against his old team. You never know exactly how that will turn out, but Gonzalez has been solid this year with a 3.27 ERA and you know he will be very motivated here.

Wade Miley is badly overpriced right now. Miley is stranding 89.4% of runners on base so far this year. That's completely unsustainable. Miley also has a batting average on balls in play against him of only .254 compared to .328 a year ago. 

The White Sox are top five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The bullpens are pretty even and this is a line that should be around +120, so we are getting too good of a price to pass on.

The Orioles are 2-6 in Miley's last 8 home starts. The White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left handed starter. 

Take the White Sox. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday Early Bird Special* Bill Miller is one of the best under umpires in baseball. No other umpire has made me as much money in the past few years as Miller. The under has value to start with Miller behind the plate. In fact, the under is 219-173 in his games behind the plate (56% under wins). 

The wind here is a major factor as well. The wind is expecting to be blowing in from left center field at 15-20 mph throughout the game with gusts to 25 mph. With a temperature only in the low to mid 60's, the ball won't be carrying well on Thursday afternoon in Kansas City.

The Royals are dead last in weighted on base average in the majors against left handed pitching. The White Sox are dead last in the same category against right handed pitching. Holland is a mediocre lefty, but that should be enough to slow the Royals. Ian Kennedy has been good for the Royals, and his swinging strikes rate and overall strikeout rate has me relatively high on him right now.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 6-0 in the Royals last 6 games overall vs. a team with a winning record. A 17-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners start Hisashi Iwakuma here. Iwakuma's numbers on the year don't look all that bad, but a closer look at him and I think he is in some real trouble going forward.

Iwakuma has a 4.15 ERA, but his FIP is 6.58 on the season. Iwakuma is striking out only 4.15 batters per nine innings. He struck out 7.70 per nine innings two years ago. Iwakuma is allowing more hard contact than he has at any other time in his career. His velocity is down drastically this year, and it suggests either simple aging (he is 36) or an injury of some kind. 

Ricky Nolasco starts for the Angels. Nolasco has a 4.13 ERA but a FIP of 5.26, so he has gotten lucky as well. Nolasco isn't a terrible pitcher, but he isn't good either.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate and he's a very good over umpire. The over is hitting at a 57% clip in his last 5 years of games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* I'm not one to like to back Mike Pelfrey on a regular basis, but this price is ridiculous. The Royals offense has been consistently the worst in the majors. They'll likely get to Pelfrey a decent amount, but Nate Karns isn't a shutdown guy by any means.

Karns and Pelfrey have similar FIP's, and these are two guys who are unreliable. What about the bullpens? The White Sox have a huge advantage here. The Royals have one of the three or four worst bullpens in baseball.

With the White Sox having the better offense and the better bullpen, this price should be around even money. I'll gladly take the big plus money price.

Take the White Sox. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals are absolutely crushing left handed pitching so far this year. Washington has an amazing .439 OBP against lefties this year. That's obviously not going to continue, but the Nationals are going to be one of the top three or four in the majors against lefties.

Arizona ranked as the best team in the majors against lefties according to weighted on base average last year. The Diamondbacks are 11th so far this year. Expect them to be very good in that category again this year.

Robbie Ray is a pretty good starter, but walks are a major problem. Ray is walking 5.04 batters per nine innings. That's bad news when Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire. He is arguably the best over umpire in the business and he won't give Ray any breaks here.

Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 1.62 ERA and a 3.69 FIP and a 4.17 FIP. That suggests he has gotten very fortunate so far this year. He started really fast last year before pitching some subpar baseball the rest of the way.

The over is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL West. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. A 16-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Cincinnati Reds hot start was never going to last. I'm a Reds fan personally, but I don't make bets based on who I like, I bet based on where I see value. 

Jameson Taillon is a really good young pitcher. He has great control and is able to limit the big innings because of that. Rookie Davis is walking 6.52 batters per nine innings this year, so obviously control is a problem for him. Add in the fact that he has a swinging strike rate of only 6.6%, and he is a guy I'll look to fade.

The Pirates have the deeper lineup and the much better starter here. Tom Hallion is the umpire and the road team is 94-64 in Hallion's last 158 games behind home plate. I hate to put too much stock into things like that, but it seems like Hallion likes to send the home fans home ticked off. It's just an extra boost to a bet that already had value.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Kansas City Royals are still being mispriced by the oddsmakers. This isn't the same Kansas City Royals team from a couple years ago. Kansas City has a much weaker offense, a much worse bullpen, and the starting rotation is one of the worst in baseball.

Danny Duffy is probably the most consistent pitcher in the rotation, but he's a 3.75 ERA type of guy. Jose Quintana has proven himself to be even better than Duffy in my opinion. Quintana is off to a bit of a slow start, but his consistency in the last three years with an ERA of 3.36 or lower every year tells me he should get much better in the near future. 

The White Sox lineup is set up to hit well against lefties. Chicago is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year. 

The White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games against a left handed starter.

Take Chicago here. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw in this one. Kershaw is definitely the best pitcher in baseball. He dominates in ways no one else can. Kershaw consistently gets some of the highest swinging strike percentages of anyone in baseball. He is extremely consistent, and he pitches very deep into games.

The Giants start Johnny Cueto here. Cueto is certainly a good pitcher, but he isn't even close to the same caliber as Kershaw. I'm starting to think Cueto isn't quite what he was a year or two ago either. Cueto's velocity isn't what it was a couple years ago, and he is giving up a lot more hard contact.

San Francisco's lineup is a major mess right now. The Giants are without Crawford and Span, and this an offense that doesn't have a big margin for error. 

The Dodgers offense has underperformed in a big way so far this year, but against right handed pitching this team is going to be excellent. Positive regression is coming for this Dodgers offense.

The Giants are at a big bullpen disadvantage here as well.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Monday BEST Bet* The New York Mets were beaten 23-5 yesterday in Washington. Yes, you read that correctly. The Mets have been a mess this year, and it doesn't appear to be getting better in any way right now. 

In some sports, teams who are beaten badly bounce back at a nice clip in the next game. That isn't the case in Major League Baseball. In fact, in the long run it has been a profitable move to continue to go against teams that just got blasted in their last game.

The bigger reason for this play though is Julio Teheran giving the Braves a starting pitching edge, and the Braves offense being so much better than the Mets. The Mets really miss Cespedes (on offense and defense), and the Braves offense is much better this year than they have been in the past couple seasons.

Teheran has a dazzling 2.25 ERA in 104 innings against the Mets in his career. Teheran goes against a short handed Mets lineup here. Gsellman starts for the Mets, and he has been very shaky this year. His control has been a big problem.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are both better on offense than they have shown in the early going this year. Both of these teams have a large amount of proven hitters who are underachieving thus far, and those guys should start producing sooner rather than later. 

Rick Porcello isn't nearly as good as you would think based on the fact that he won the AL Cy Young award last year. Porcello is a pitch to contact guy who has only been mediocre in his career against Baltimore. The Orioles have a .323 OBP against him.

Dylan Bundy has been good this year, but I still don't trust his consistency, especially away from home. Bundy has a career 2.67 ERA at home and a 4.53 ERA on the road. 

The Orioles bullpen is good, but it takes a big hit without Britton. The Red Sox bullpen is only average. 

This one is priced too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Cubs/Red Sox Sunday Night CASH* The Chicago Cubs are defending champs, and they are going to be one of the teams to beat this year once again. Boston has a high ceiling, but the Red Sox haven't played very well this year. 

Kyle Hendricks is better than his early ERA for this season looks. Hendricks has pitched into some bad luck and in the long run his ERA should come back down to 3.5 or so. 

Eduardo Rodriguez pitched a gem in his last start, but it's hard to count on him. Rodriguez has been wildly inconsistent in his young career. He has been much worse at home. His Fenway Park ERA is 4.71 compared to 3.64 on the road. 

The Cubs have the more consistent pitcher, and the Cubs have the much better bullpen here. I'll take the small plus money price.

Boston is 2-8 in Rodriguez's last 10 home starts.

Take the Cubs. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oakland Athletics will be one of the worst teams in the American League this year. Houston will be one of the best in the American League. In fact, I see Houston as a team that could win the World Series this year. 

Dallas Keuchel has been amazing at home in his career. After a bit of a disappointing season last year, Keuchel has been on his game so far this year. He'll face an Oakland lineup that isn't any good against lefties in this contest.

Jesse Hahn has some terrible home/road splits. His home ERA is 2.96 in his career, but his career road ERA is 4.51. Hahn has made three starts against Houston in his career, and he has a 6.75 ERA in those starts. In his two starts in Houston, Hahn has allowed 10 runs in 6 and 2/3 innings. 

The Astros have the much better starting pitcher. Houston has the better offense by a wide margin and the better bullpen by a solid margin as well.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zack Greinke here. Greinke has been much better so far this year than last. Greinke has a swinging strike rate of 12.9% so far this year, which is the highest of his career. That obviously won't stay that high, but still it shows that his stuff has had some good bite this season.

Tyler Anderson is a decent lefty for Colorado, but Arizona is excellent against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against left handed starters. Arizona will probably finish the season in the top five in the majors in OBP against lefties for the second straight season. 

The Rockies offense is good, but they aren't great. Colorado isn't completely healthy, and the Rockies have been winning a lot of games because of their improved pitching. I think Arizona has a big pitching advantage here. 

The Diamondbacks are 19-7 in their last 26 home games. They are 8-3 in Greinke's last 11 home starts. The Rockies are 1-6 in Anderson's last 7 road starts.

Take Arizona.