*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Houston Astros start Justin Verlander here. I don't have to tell you how good Verlander is in general. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. Verlander is throwing the ball about as well as he ever has. Verlander also has some tremendous numbers against the Angels in his career. This Angels lineup has a career .163 batting average against him and that is in a fairly large sample size of 129 at bats. Verlander has thrown 15 innings against the Angels this year, and he has yet to allow a run. He has 2 walks and 20 strikeouts in those two contests.

 Jaime Barria has a solid 3.41 ERA, but his FIP and xFIP are 4.58 and 4.54. He is giving up a lot of hard contact, and he has been fortunate to strand a ton of base runners. 

Houston's lineup is finally healthy, and Altuve being in the lineup makes this team a totally different animal. The Astros have the deepest bullpen in baseball as well and that gives them a big advantage over the thin Angels bullpen.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* There hasn't been a better field than Coors Field for unders this year. Of course there can still be some very high scoring games here, but the posted totals have been too high on average. 

The under is 20-5-1 in the Rockies last 26 home games. Senzatela starts for the Rockies and he has been surprisingly solid. He does a good job limiting big innings and staying away from hard contact. 

Miles Mikolas is a very underrated guy thanks to his ability to pound the strike zone. He has a hard hit rate of only 29.7% this year according to Baseball Savant. 

The Rockies and Cardinals are both much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Colorado is 22nd in the league in weighted on base average against righties and the Cardinals are 17th. The Rockies are 3rd and the Cardinals 8th against lefties. 

This game means a lot to both teams, and both bullpens are well rested coming into this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 overall. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5. The under is 4-0 in Senzatela's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs a right handed starter. A 21-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Trevor Cahill has been dominant at home this year, but he isn't very good on the road. Cahill had a terrible 1.97 WHIP on the road last year. It is still a very high 1.47 this year on the road. At home, Cahill has a 0.84 WHIP in his last 13 starts. He'll be on the road against a pretty talented Twins lineup that has been hitting the ball well of late. The Twins have some youngsters seeing the ball well.

Kohl Stewart starts here for the Twins, and I don't like what I've seen from him thus far. It's only been two short starts in the majors, but he is having serious trouble. Most concerning is both of those starts are against the Tigers, who have been the worst offense in baseball in the past month. Stewart had a mediocre ERA and FIP in Triple A this year, and he wasn't generating many swings and misses there. He's up against an Oakland offense that is easily first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road this season.

The over is 9-1 in Cahill's last 10 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 between these two teams. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 MLB Early Bird Special* I don't like taking unders this low very often, but I see a bunch of reasons for this game to be very low scoring. 

Madison Bumgarner has been pitching better in his last few outings. He gave up several against a Reds offense that excels against lefties in his last outing. He'll face a Mets lineup that is last in weighted on base average against lefties in all of baseball this year. Bumgarner has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in 29 innings pitched at Citi Field. The Giants bullpen has been very solid in recent weeks, and they are well rested coming into this one.

Jacob Degrom has been amazing this year. Degrom has always been much better at home and in day games. Degrom has a career 1.99 ERA in day games. He has a career 2.18 ERA at home. He has allowed 1 run or 0 runs in 14 of his 25 starts this year. He has only allowed more than 3 once. Degrom has been pitching deep into games consistently as well.

The under is 15-5-1 in Degrom's last 21.

The wind is blowing in here and it is an early game. Early get away day games are good under leans to start with, and with the wind blowing in it is even more the case.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Look for both Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer to come out and throw the ball really well here. It's not a very hot day in Washington DC for this one, and the wind is blowing in at 10-12 mph from center field. Eric Cooper is behind the plate, and he's a bit of an under umpire as well.

Scherzer has been as good as ever lately. He has a FIP of 1.32 or lower in four of his last six starts. He has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last five starts combined. Scherzer has been pitching very deep into games, and that's key here since the Nats bullpen has been struggling.

Nola gets a high swinging strike rate of 13.1%. He also excels at inducing soft contact. Nola has only allowed 3.8% of batted balls to be barreled so far this year (that ranks in the top 3% of pitchers in the majors). Fangraphs shows Nola to have allowed a hard hit ball on less than 25% of batted balls, which is extremely good.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Detroit Tigers +1.5* The Chicago Cubs offense has gone into a terrible tailspin of late. The Cubs have dropped from 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties to 10th in the last two weeks. 

The Tigers are miserable on offense against right handed pitching, but they are middle of the pack in the majors against lefties. 

Jon Lester starts here for the Cubs, and while he is coming off a good start, I'm not convinced he has fixed his problems. In 7 of his last 9 starts, Lester has a FIP of 5.22 or worse. Lester's season stats show some very ugly trends from past seasons. He hadn't allowed more than 29.5% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit in any full season in his career until this year. This year it currently sits at 34%. He is giving up more hard hits and more home runs. Lester has a 3.72 ERA, but a 4.83 FIP (he has been fortunate this year). 

Francisco Liriano isn't a guy to trust very much, but the Cubs offense has been bad of late. They might break out of their slump here, but at this price- I have to take a chance.  

If you had been taking the +1.5 line against the Cubs in their last 10 games you would be 9-1.

Take Detroit +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros have Charlie Morton on the mound here. Morton has been great all year. He combines something many pitchers aren't able to- the ability to have swing and miss stuff and still induce soft contact. 

Marco Gonzales has had a breakout year for the Mariners. He likes pitching in this pitcher-friendly ballpark, and Gonzales has done a much better job minimizing walks this year. 

Both starters should be helped by Bill Miller, who is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller grades as the second best under umpire in my umpire database over the last 5 seasons. His strikes called percentage is consistently high from year to year.

This is a get away day game and that could mean a key bat or two is missing. Both of these teams have a deep bullpen, and the relievers available on Wednesday are solid.

The under is 5-0 in Morton's last 5 starts. The under is 5-1 in Morton's last 6 starts vs. Seattle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Los Angeles Angels are 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They are always bad against lefties, but without Mike Trout in the lineup they are awful against the lefties. They'll face an elite lefty in Patrick Corbin in this one.

Corbin's numbers are spectacular this year. He has a 3.18 ERA, and he's had some really poor luck or it would be even better. Corbin has a 2.41 FIP and a 2.64 xFIP. Corbin's slider is one of the best pitches in baseball. He has a ridiculous 15.0% swinging strike rate this year. He has a great 37.0% O-Swing rate on the year. He's getting batters to go after some pitches way out of the zone. 

Pena starts for the Angels and he's no better than mediocre. Pena has allowed 42.4% of batted balls to be hard hit, which is much higher than the league average. He allows an exit velocity of 89.0 (vs. MLB average of 87.3 mph), so he isn't fooling many people this year. 

The Diamondbacks have a lot to play for, while the Angels are just playing out the string in this season of disappointment thanks in large part due to injuries.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Houston -1.5* The Houston Astros were swept at home in a 4 game series by the Seattle Mariners in the series ending August 12. The Astros finally broke out offensively yesterday in beating the A's to get back in the lead in the AL West. You have to think they want to get some revenge on Seattle for that 4 game sweep in Houston last weekend. 

Gerrit Cole has been so good for the Astros. Cole hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in any game all season. He has been at the top of his game lately. His FIP has been 2.46 or lower in 7 straight games! Even the games he gave up a few runs in, it has been due to bad batted ball luck or not stranding runners on base. Cole has 2 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts. 

The Mariners lineup has a low weighted on base average of just .266 against Cole in his career. 

Felix Hernandez has allowed 22 runs in his last 19 and 1/3 innings pitched. Hernandez has a low swinging strike rate of 8.4%. In contrast, Cole has a tremendous 13.8% swinging strike rate.

The Astros are healthier than they were for the last series with the Mariners. Houston has the best bullpen ERA and FIP this year, so they have a clear edge there as well.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing some great baseball of late. The Cardinals got a big boost from getting rid of Mike Matheny. It's been a breath of fresh air with Mike Shildt as the manager. 

Matt Carpenter has been the hottest hitter in baseball, and this Cardinals lineup is much deeper than the average lineup in the National League. The young guys like Bader and DeJong have been coming up with a lot of big hits recently. 

Chacin starts for the Brewers, and he has a 6.90 ERA in his career against the Cardinals. Chacin has historically been much worse in day game starts than night starts. The Cardinals have a career .432 OBP against him. 

John Gant has been throwing the ball well of late. In 5 of his last 7 starts, he's allowed 2 runs or less. His FIP has been below 2 in two consecutive starts in his last two outings. 

The Brewers are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. the NL Central. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Milwaukee. A 24-1 angle.

Take the Cardinals. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have Miles Mikolas on the mound for this one. Mikolas is a guy I'm pretty high on. He has been really consistent this year, and his ability to avoid walks have helped him stay away from the big inning for the most part. Mikolas allows a 29.7% hard hit rate according to Baseball Savant, which is much lower than the average in the majors. His average exit velocity is low also at 85.3 mph. Mikolas throws strikes and he induces soft contact.

Wade Miley is a guy I'm low on. Miley doesn't miss bats, and he walks quite a few guys. In fact, he has 19 walks and 22 strikeouts on the year. Last game his line looked good on runs allowed, but he had good batted ball luck, and stranded quite a few runners on base. He struck out zero batters in six innings of work last time out. 

St. Louis is 7th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals have a deep lineup against lefties, and Carpenter is the hottest hitter in baseball. 

The Cardinals are 4-0 in Mikolas' last 4 home starts. The Cardinals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on four days of rest. The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Under* Robbie Ray is much better on the road than at home. Ray has a 5.27 home ERA in his career. He has a 3.19 ERA on the road. His WHIP at home is a staggering 1.543. His WHIP on the road is only 1.203. In 4 starts in San Diego, Ray has a 2.88 ERA. 

The Padres have what might be the worst offense in baseball right now. San Diego was just shut down by Clay Buchholz last night. Buchholz threw a complete game, which means Arizona's top bullpen guys are all available for this game.

Joey Lucchesi starts for San Diego here. He has a 2.66 FIP or lower in 4 of his last 5 starts. Lucchesi has deceptive stuff, and he's backed by a deep bullpen. In fact, the Padres have a 2.88 ERA in the past 30 days. They have a 2.82 FIP which is easily the best in baseball during that time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Jose Berrios has been tremendous at home in the last couple years. Berrios had a WHIP of 0.95 at home last year. He has a 0.919 WHIP this year. His strikeout/walk ratio is 5.06 at home this season. He's capable of dominating at home, and the Pirates offense is mediocre. 

Chris Archer goes against a Twins lineup that is much weaker than they were before the trade deadline. Archer has a 13.3% swinging strike rate so far this year, so he can definitely miss bats. 

This is a get away day game and we could see a key bat or two missing here. 

Doug Eddings is the single best under umpire in the majors. Eddings has called the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors for three consecutive years. 

The under is a whopping 48-23 in his last 71 games behind home plate with a start time of 4 pm EST or earlier (typically get away day games).

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* Patrick Corbin has been one of the top ten starting pitchers in baseball this year. He has a solid 3.15 ERA, but a FIP of 2.46 which tells me he has been rather unlucky this season. Corbin has had great consistency. He has had a FIP of 3.99 or lower in each of his last 12 starts. That's almost unheard of. Corbin has 0 walks and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. He has a 14.9% swinging strikes rate, which is second only to Chris Sale. 

Yovani Gallardo has a terrible 5.5% swinging strike rate this year. Gallardo has 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in his last four starts. It's hard to sustain success with those kind of numbers. The Rangers bullpen is also not what it once was before the trade deadline when management traded away a couple of their top guys.

The Rangers are 9-22 in their last 31 vs. a team with a winning record. A big pitching mismatch and the DBacks have a lot more to play for here. 

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*5 Star MLB Game of the MONTH* The Washington Nationals lost late Sunday night in the most heartbreaking fashion. Washington led the whole way and was up 3-0 before giving up a grand slam with two outs and two strikes to lose to the Cubs. They traveled late night Sunday night and are at a rest disadvantage here.

Washington's bullpen is really thin right now as they deal with some major injury issues. Tim Milone isn't a starter I'd want to rely on when they need a guy to go deep into a game to save the bullpen. Milone was torched last game, and the Cardinals have been hitting lefties very well of late. They have the 4th highest hard hit percentage against lefties in the majors this year. Milone is a guy who has pitched pretty well in Triple A in the past, but he has never consistently been able to get good big league hitters out. He pitched well against the Marlins and Mets in his first two starts this year, but those are terrible offenses. He was crushed by Atlanta last time out.

Miles Mikolas has been rock solid all year. In his last 21 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of them. Mikolas does a great job minimizing walks (just 1.56 per nine innings) and he limits hard contact very well. Opponents average an exit velocity against Mikolas of just 85.1 mph, which is among the top five percent of pitchers in the big leagues.

This was a spot I liked for St. Louis before the Nationals crushing defeat on Sunday night, now I like it even more. 

The Cardinals have a healthy bullpen and are playing great baseball since getting rid of former manager Mike Matheny.

The Cardinals are 6-1 in Mikolas' last 7 starts. The Nationals are 5-11 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take St. Louis. 

MLB Game of the MONTH 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals aren't going to be this short of a price with Max Scherzer very often at all. Washington is 51-21 in Scherzer's last 72 starts. Scherzer has the highest swinging strike rate of his career this year. He also has the highest percentage of soft contact on batted balls. The Cubs are a good offense, but they are without Kris Bryant right now.

Cole Hamels has been mediocre this year. He's been good in his two starts with the Cubs, but this is the first good lineup he has had to face. 

Alan Porter is behind home plate and he has been one of the biggest "road" umpires in the majors in his time behind the plate. 

Washington needs wins badly right now, and having a big pitching advantage and a lower lay than normal for Scherzer makes them a play for me.

Take Washington.

*4 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers have been just awful offensively in the past month or so. In fact, since July 10 this Tigers team has only scored more than 5 runs on three occasions! They have a brutal .244 OBP in the last 30 days. The second worst team OBP during that period is the Marlins at .269. Detroit has been embarrassing on offense.

Kohl Stewart is a hard thrower who has some potential, and he gets a very favorable matchup in his debut here. 

The Tigers start Matt Boyd, and he's been solid this year. Boyd has pitched really well against the Twins in the past as well. In 103 at bats, they have a .214 average against him. Boyd has improved a lot in the past year, and the Tigers bullpen has been surprisingly strong in the past month.

The Twins offense is much weaker since the trade deadline. The Tigers offense is dreadful. It's too high of a total here.

The under is 6-0 in the Tigers last 6 vs a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games vs a lefty. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two. A 14-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* Wade LeBlanc is a different pitcher at home. LeBlanc has fit in nicely in Seattle, but on the road he is vulnerable. LeBlanc has a WHIP of 1.04 at home in the last two seasons, but his WHIP jumps all the way to 1.31 on the road. 

Houston has dropped the first two games in this series. While this Astros team is still banged up, they are still a very good team and are clearly better than Seattle even in their current state. 

Houston has a lineup full of guys who have crushed Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc has allowed Astros hitters to have a ridiculous .576 weighted on base average in 60 at bats. He has a 6.84 ERA in his career against Houston. The Astros are third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this year.

Charlie Morton pairs a great ability to miss bats with an ability to induce soft contact. Morton has a 12.8% swinging strike rate this year, and he is averaging 96 mph on his fastball. The Mariners are better against lefties, and have struggled against right handed pitching of late.

Houston gets back on track here.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland* The Oakland Athletics are playing great baseball. Oakland has a lot to play for now, and the Los Angeles Angels are well out of contention. 

The Angels rank 27th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They have struggled all year long with lefties. Now, Mike Trout is questionable for this game with an injury. If they are without Trout, they are particularly weak against lefties. 

The Oakland Athletics are first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They are also 7th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The A's bullpen is crucial to their success as well. Oakland's bullpen has a FIP of 3.41 in the last 30 days compared to the Angels bullpen's FIP of 4.42. A big edge to Oakland.

Brett Anderson is a decent lefty for the A's. Pena is a mediocre pitcher, and the A's have been on a roll of late. Oakland is 37-16 in their last 53 games. The Angels are 7-17 in their last 24 vs. a left handed starter.

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has been tremendous this year. While his recent results don't look quite as dominant, a closer look shows he is still throwing the ball really well. Cole has a FIP of 2.44 or lower in each of his last five starts. He has been hurt by some tough batted ball luck and a low strand rate. He's still racking up huge strikeout numbers and doing a good job minimizing hard contact.

Mike Leake has produced a quality start in 11 of his last 14 starts. Leake has no walks in his last three starts combined. Leake is backed by a quality bullpen on the Mariners side. The Astros bullpen is arguably the best in baseball.

Houston is without Altuve and Springer right now, and that certainly holds their offense back.

Doug Eddings is behind home plate, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He has the highest strikes called rate of any umpire in three straight seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies both come into this game struggling of late on offense. The Dodgers have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. The Rockies have scored 3 runs or less in six of their last eight games.

The Rockies are an elite offense against left handed pitching. In fact, Colorado is second in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Rockies aren't very good against right handed pitching though. They are 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching. They face a good right hander in Ross Stripling here.

The Dodgers are elite against right handed pitching. They are 2nd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Dodgers are only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Tyler Anderson has an impressive 3.48 ERA and 1.263 WHIP at Coors Field in his career. Ross Stripling has a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings at Coors Field. Both of these guys are solid pitchers.

The under is 5-0 in the Dodgers last 5 road games. The under is 4-0-1 in Anderson's last 5 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Boston Red Sox ML* The Boston Red Sox are setting an amazing pace this year. Boston came back in stunning fashion and beat the Blue Jays last night. The Red Sox took advantage of a terrible Toronto bullpen in winning in extra innings. 

Toronto is a team I think is in a bad spot mentally. The Blue Jays expected to be better this year. They haven't been good. That meant Toronto had a big sale at the trade deadline and got rid of key pieces. J.A. Happ was traded. Several key guys in the bullpen were traded. Steve Pearce was traded. Toronto's players were openly upset after the trade deadline. Now, they are coming off a tough loss and I'm not sure what kind of effort we'll get here.

Brian Johnson has been underrated. He has a 2.57 ERA in 7 starts for Boston. Mike Hauschild had underwhelming numbers at Triple A both last year and this year. He's up against a great offense that will get Devers back for this game. 

The Red Sox have a massive advantage in the bullpen. Toronto has the worst bullpen ERA in the majors in the last 3 weeks, and that bullpen has zero confidence now.

This price is far cheaper than I expected to get on Boston. They are 10-2 in Johnson's last 12 starts. Toronto is only 4-17 in their last 21 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher.

Take the Red Sox. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phillies rank in the bottom ten in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom 6 in the league in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Patrick Corbin has a 3.31 ERA on the year, and he has actually been very unlucky. Corbin has a FIP of only 2.55 on the season. Corbin had a solid swinging strike rate of 11.0% last year, but it has jumped to a really impressive 14.7% this year. His slider has been tremendous this season. Corbin is up against a Phillies lineup that strikes out a bunch.

Vincent Velasquez came back from injury on July 11. Since then, Velasquez has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in 25 and 1/3 innings. His hard hit percentage is way down this year, so he is inducing more soft contact. Only 5.7% of batted balls against him have been barreled. 

The under is 6-0 in Velasquez's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Arizona. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 20-0 angle.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* Brad Keller has pitched pretty well for the Royals this year. Keller has a good sinking fastball which has helped him keep the ball in the park thus far. As long as he has his command, he should continue to be good at suppressing home runs. Keller has done an excellent job avoiding hard contact. Only 10 out of 222 batted balls have been barreled according to Baseball Savant. That puts Keller in the top 4% of pitchers in baseball. He's doing a great job forcing soft contact.

Mike Montgomery is an underrated starter who does enough to help his team win. The Cubs bullpen is strong and many of their best guys should be available on Tuesday.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and he is clearly the biggest under umpire in baseball. He's had the highest percentage of strikes called of any umpire for three straight seasons. He's a big help to both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Milwaukee Brewers start Chase Anderson in this one. Anderson has been very good of late. Anderson has allowed 2 runs or less in eight straight starts. He excels at inducing soft contact, and Anderson is in great form right now.

San Diego ranks last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, and it isn't very close. The Padres are without Wil Myers right now, and he is one of their most reliable hitters. 

Milwaukee ranks 19th in wOBA against lefties, but they have a poor batting average on balls in play (4th lowest) despite having the third highest hard hit percentage against lefties. Clayton Richard isn't a normal lefty, he's much worse. Richard has been in terrible form of late. He's walked 23 batters in his last 30 innings. He's allowed at least a hit per inning in his last 7 starts. 

Richard is able to cover up his issues when pitching at home in a pitcher friendly park, but on the road he has an ERA above 6. His hard hit allowed percentage had never been above 35% in his career, but it is 40.4% this year. He's nearing the end of his career, and he's struggling right now.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Royals start Jakob Junis in this one. They host the Chicago Cubs in an interleague battle. The Cubs are one the rare NL teams who have plenty of depth to add a hitter and still be strong from top to bottom in the lineup. 

Junis has had problems with the home run ball this year. He is giving up a whopping 2.02 homers per nine innings. Junis isn't pitching well of late. He's allowed 5 runs or more in less than 6 innings pitched in 5 of his last 8 starts. 

Cole Hamels isn't the pitcher he used to be. Hamels has a home run problem as well, and he is very inconsistent.

The weather here is calling for a temperature of 92 degrees at gametime and winds blowing out at 10 mph. These are perfect conditions for an over. 

The Royals bullpen is arguably the worst in the majors and Junis doesn't usually pitch deep in the game. The Cubs could put up a big number here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB BIG Underdog SHOCKER* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Robbie Ray here. Ray has a home ERA of 5.31 in his career. His road ERA is 3.18. His WHIP at home in his career is 1.531. You'll almost never see a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.531 laying this kind of price. 

While I'm not particularly high on the Giants overall, they are a .500 team. This isn't the Baltimore Orioles that Ray and the Diamondbacks are up against. Derek Holland is an inconsistent starter, but he's been one of the Giants best starters so far this year. In the past month, the Giants bullpen has been significantly better than the Diamondbacks bullpen, which has been one of the worst in the majors.

How has Ray done at home as a favorite? The DBacks are 11-16 in his 27 games started as a home favorite of -125 or higher. That's an ROI of -35.6%. Ray has been burning money at home, especially as a favorite.

The Giants sat out Posey and Pence on Saturday, and they are expected back in the lineup here. 

This is worth it as a solid price grab value selection.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller has been one of the best under umpires in baseball for many years. Miller has an all-time under rate of 55.4% and he's always at or near the top of the strikeouts/walk ratio leaderboard and the overall percentage of strikes called. Miller is a big under umpire. Sunday is a get away day and there are more unders on Sunday in MLB in general. The under is a whopping 43-15-1 in Miller's last 59 Sunday games.

Danny Duffy has been coming around of late. Duffy has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 13 starts. He's gone 6 innings or more in 10 of those 13 starts. Duffy also has a spectacular 2.21 ERA in 102 innings against the Twins. Duffy has an even better 1.79 ERA at Target Field.

Ervin Santana starts for the Twins here, and he has a brilliant 2.78 ERA in 11 career starts with Bill Miller behind home plate. 

The Twins rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Royals rank in the bottom three in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Atlanta Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves were shutout by Zack Wheeler on Saturday night. Wheeler has a high upside and he pitched extremely well in that one. Corey Oswalt isn't even close to his same level. Oswalt has a 6.02 ERA and a 5.39 FIP at Triple A this year. He has a 5.27 ERA and 5.26 FIP in the big leagues. Oswalt has a swinging strike rate of only 7.3%. His stuff isn't good enough to fool hitters consistently enough. 

Julio Teheran loves pitching at Citi Field and against the Mets in general. The Mets lineup has a terrible .148 batting average in 128 at bats against Teheran. Teheran's ERA at Citi Field is 2.14. In his last five starts at Citi Field, Teheran has allowed only 3 runs total. 

The Mets are 9-25 in their last 34 after winning their last game. The Braves have been good at bouncing back all year long. 

It's rate that you get to lay this short of a price to fade the Mets, especially with a quality opponent.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* Lance McCullers Jr. is tremendous at home, but on the road his numbers are much worse. In his career, McCullers Jr. has a 2.66 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP at home. He has a 4.89 ERA and a 1.446 WHIP on the road. He also has a 3.32 ERA in the first half of the season and a 4.78 ERA in the second half of the season. 

The Dodgers rank first in the majors in walk percentage, and McCullers has been wild of late. He has 10 walks in his last 13 and 2/3 innings pitched. 

The Astros lineup isn't nearly as good without Altuve and Correa. The Dodgers have a clear lineup edge now- and this lineup got much better with their deadline deals. 

Maeda has pitched into bad luck of late, and he's thrown the ball very well on the whole this year. 

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves start Kevin Gausman here. Gausman has had an up and down career in Baltimore. He had to face the best lineups in the majors on a consistent basis being in the AL East. He also had to pitch for a terrible team. He now goes to the National League and faces a bad Mets lineup. He's on a Braves team that is in contention. 

Zack Wheeler has been pretty good overall, but the Mets bullpen ranks in the bottom three in the majors in the last month. Wheeler has been much better on the road in his career. The Braves hitters have an OBP over .500 in a small sample against Wheeler. 

The Braves young lineup and improved bullpen give them substantial edges in those two spots.

Atlanta is 5-0 in their last 5 in New York against the Mets. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the NL East. A 14-0 angle.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB DOG of the Day* The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching, and it isn't even close. The Yankees are at .358 (2nd is .345). The Red Sox sit 16th in wOBA against lefties at .318. New York is first in ISO against lefties as well, so their power against lefties is tremendous.

C.C. Sabathia ranks in the top 2% of exit velocity allowed. He's reinvented himself into a guy who allows weak contact and that allows him to outperform most advanced metrics. Sabathia has had great success against the Red Sox of late. The Yankees are 6-1 in Sabathia's last 7 starts vs. the Red Sox.

Brian Johnson isn't a bad pitcher, but he's had quite a few favorable matchups. He now has to face the best offense against lefties in the bigs. Johnson usually only pitches 5 innings or so, and the Red Sox middle relief is questionable. 

The Yankees also have an edge in the bullpen. While Aaron Judge is out here- Boegarts is likely to miss this game for the Red Sox. 

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Angels traded away Ian Kinsler and Martin Maldonado already. This lineup wasn't particularly deep to start with, and now they are even less so. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, but the lineup around him isn't very good. Stanek starts here for the Rays, and he has been superb. He obviously won't be in the game long, but Yarbrough is expected to come in after him and he's a solid lefty. The Angels rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Tyler Skaggs has been tremendous this year for the Angels. Skaggs has allowed 2 runs or less in 15 of his 19 starts this year. Skaggs had a swinging strike rate of only 8.1% last year, but it has jumped to 11.4% this year. 

The Stanek-Yarbrough combination the Rays have used consistently has been very good for the under. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games with these two being used back to back. The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 during game one of a series. A 15-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Robbie Ray is a really inconsistent pitcher. He's very capable of firing a great game and shutting a team down, but he's also very capable of getting shelled. More often than not he's been hit hard at home. The over is 24-7-1 in his last 32 starts at home. It's very common to see a pitcher with an ERA much better at home than on the road, but Ray is the opposite in a big way. Ray has a 3.18 career ERA on the road. His career home ERA is 5.28. His ERA is nearly a full run worse in the second half of the season as well.

Martin Perez has a 7.08 ERA and a 6.36 FIP on the season. Perez is a below average lefty, and the DBacks have been very good against lefties all year (they are bad against righties). The Rangers bullpen has been used heavily of late.

The Rangers and Dbacks both rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Both of these bullpens rank among the five worst in the majors in the last month. 

I think there is blowup potential with both of these starters and I'll take the over at this relatively low number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday SMASHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken the first three games of this series. They go for the four game sweep on the road on Sunday. The Braves have taken on some early money here because of the "avoid the sweep" plays being entered. Not that those can't be considered at all, but I think those are extremely overstated. I don't subscribe to the theory that the team who has won will just lay down in the final game of the series. 

In this particular game, I like the pitching matchup for the Dodgers. Ross Stripling has had amazing control this year. He is averaging only 1.26 walks per nine innings. He has a grand total of 3 walks allowed in his last nine starts. That's pinpoint control to say the least. Stripling also has an impressive 11.0% swinging strike rate. He has allowed a few more runs of late, but that's mostly due to poor batted ball luck. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of .316 or higher in 5 of his last 6 games.

Sean Newcomb has been struggling badly with his command. In his career, he has been much worse in the second half of the season, and his worst time is the heat of the summer. In July and August (15 career starts) he has a WHIP of 1.801. That's about as bad as you'll see. The Dodgers have hit him hard in the past.

The Dodgers bullpen has been much better of late, and they have a clear edge over the Braves there.

The Braves are 1-7 in Newcomb's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Stripling's last 4 starts.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Cubs start Jose Quintana here. Quintana has been pretty fortunate this year. He has a 3.87 ERA and a 4.56 FIP. His batting average on balls in play allowed is .277 and he has a high 77.4% strand rate as well. Quintana has been much more wild this year than normal. Quintana has 14 straight starts where he has allowed at least 2 walks. His strikeout rate is down as well. The Cardinals lineup overall has a .372 weighted on base average against Quintana. Quintana has a much worse ERA in day games in his career (4.06) than night games (3.24). 

Miles Mikolas has a terrific 2.83 ERA in day games in his career vs. a 4.30 ERA in night games. Mikolas has done a great job pounding the strike zone this year. The Cubs lineup is very good, but he's pitched well against them in his two outings. Being without Kris Bryant is clearly a big hit for the Cubs.

The more consistent pitcher and a team who desperately needs wins right now at home at a value price.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* It's not easy to go against the red hot Oakland Athletics right now, but I'm go to go against them in this one. Colorado had the day off on Thursday night and that helped the Rockies bullpen get rested up. 

Oakland is coming off a series that they swept at Texas, but that series took a lot out of them. The A's used a bunch of relievers and made some big comebacks in that series. Blake Treinen has been amazing this year for them, but he has pitched three days in a row, and he may not be available in this game. Trivino has been their second best reliever and he has pitched two days in a row (20 pitches on Thursday). 

The Rockies are excellent against lefties. Colorado ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Sean Manaea has been good this year, but his batting average on balls in play allowed is just .221. That has to regress toward the mean sooner or later. Manaea actually gives up a lot of hard contact, and that isn't a good recipe for success at Coors Field.

Kyle Freeland continues to be underrated. Freeland's ability to keep the ball down and induce weak contact is working extremely well at Coors Field. Freeland has a tremendous 1.184 WHIP at Coors Field this year. Freeland is in the top five percent of pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity allowed.

The Rockies are 16-5 in their last 21 games. They are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. a lefty. 

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers pitching staff is struggling in a big way, and that is putting it nicely. Texas has allowed 13 runs or more in 3 of their last 6 games. The Rangers bullpen is stretched to the limit right now. The starters have been so bad that the entire bullpen is gassed. 

Bartolo Colon has been in very poor form of late. Colon has allowed 7 hits or more in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has gone 5 innings or less in 5 of his last 9 starts. Colon is giving up more hard contact this year than he has in any other season in his career. He has a home run problem, especially at home, and the Athletics lineup is extremely powerful.

Oakland ranks first in weighted on base average on the road and ISO on the road. The A's start Trevor Cahill in this one and while he has been lights out at a home, he has been very hittable on the road. Cahill has a 5.92 ERA on the road this season. His road ERA last year was 7.07. 

The temperature at game time here is expected to be 101 degrees. In the Ballpark at Arlington- the over is 34-22 in the last 56 with an average temperature of 96 degrees or higher in the game (this one should fit).

Take the over.

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* Jon Gray is certainly capable of being very good, but he's struggled to come up with clutch pitches with runners in scoring position, and he faces an excellent lineup here. The Astros rank first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road so far this year. 

Houston is 35-15 in their first 50 road games this season. The Astros have arguably the best and deepest bullpen in baseball. They are up against a Rockies team that has a thin bullpen that has been crushed when pitching at home.

Charlie Morton has great stuff and he's a high strikeout guy. The Rockies have lots of guys who strikeout a bunch, and this is a tricky matchup for them.

The early money has pushed this one down. I'll side with the team with the better lineup and much better bullpen. Houston is 27-11 in their last 38 interleague road games. They are also 54-26 in their last 80 vs. a right handed starter.

Take Houston. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies have been great against lefties this year, but they aren't good against right handed pitching. Gerrit Cole has been an elite right hander this year. His swinging strike rate is above 14%, which is tremendous. Cole has allowed 1 run or less in 10 of his 20 starts this year. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a game all season.

Houston's bullpen is first in the majors in FIP and SIERA. This is a deep bullpen that comes into this series well rested.

Tyler Anderson has been spectacular for the Rockies. Anderson is a great combination of a high swinging strike rate and an ability to induce soft contact. In his career, he has a very good 3.58 ERA at Coors Field. Anderson has a 4.32 ERA in the first half of the season in his career, and a much better 3.20 ERA in the second half of the season. He's been locked in of late.

The under is 5-0 in the Astros last 5 interleague road games. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Detroit Tigers ML* Jordan Zimmermann has been much better this year. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.1% last year to 10.3% this year. He's allowing less hard contact, and he's walking fewer batters. Zimmerann also has a tremendous record against Kansas City. Zimmermann has a stellar 1.48 ERA against Kansas City in a 7 game sample size. 

Burch Smith isn't a guy who will be in the game for very long. He'll likely go 5 innings or so max, which means the Royals must use the bullpen a lot. The Royals bullpen has been the worst in the majors this year. Detroit's bullpen has been more than a full run better in ERA on the season. 

Both offenses are bad against right handed pitching, but the Tigers have the edge in starting pitching and the bullpen.

The Royals are 14-36 at home this year. The Tigers are 4-0 in Zimmermann's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* I will look to fade Homer Bailey until he shows me something different. Bailey isn't good anymore, and he's dreadful when pitching at Great American Ballpark. His ERA in his last 17 starts at Great American Ballpark is a ridiculous 7.61. The Cardinals have given Bailey major problems in the past. This Cardinals lineup has a tremendous .462 weighted on base average against him. Bailey's ERA in his career against St. Louis is 5.71. In his last 8 starts against them, his ERA is just above 8.

Austin Gomber is a lefty with deceptive stuff. The Cardinals are an organization that does a very good job developing young pitchers. Gomber has consistently had high swinging strike rates in the minors. 

The Reds are 4-18 in Bailey's last 22 home starts. The Reds are 6-19 in Bailey's last 25 starts against the Cardinals.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* Lucas Giolito's stats look better on the surface of late, but if you take a deeper dive you'll see he's just getting fortunate with batted balls in play. Giolito has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .158, .154, and .100 in the three games he has pitched well in lately (2, 1, and 0 runs allowed). On the season, Giolito has a 6.18 ERA and a 6.14 FIP and 6.21 xFIP. He's  been one of the worst starters in the majors. 

The Angels offense has struggled badly against lefties (27th in majors in wOBA), but they are solid against right handed pitching (7th in majors in wOBA). 

Jaime Barria is due for regression. Barria has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.84 FIP. Barria has stranded 83.3% of runners on the season which isn't something he can keep up long term. His exit velocity allowed is 89.9 mph, so hitters are hitting the ball very hard against him. 

These two bullpens both rank in the bottom 8 in the past month, so I expect late scoring chances as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cleveland Indians are playing with confidence right now. If you are a contender, and you see your front office go out and make a big trade that makes you better right away, you have to be highly motivated. This bullpen got much better when Hand and Cimber came over in the deal with the Padres.

Texas has been pretty good against lefties this year, but they are 22nd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rangers also strikeout at the fourth highest rate of any team in baseball against right handed pitching. 

Mike Clevinger has solid swing and miss stuff. His swinging strike rate is an impressive 11.5%. Clevinger has improved his control this season, and he has been very consistent overall. Clevinger has a FIP of 3.16 or lower in 6 of his last 7 outings. That tells me it isn't just good luck, but Clevinger is pitching very well.

Yovani Gallardo is near the end of his career, and he isn't a guy I trust going against this red hot Indians offense. Cleveland ranks in the top five in offense against right handed pitching, and they are in top five overall in the past month. 

Gallardo has pitched worse in day games than night games in his career. Clevinger has been much better in day games than night games, and Clevinger's numbers on the road are quite a bit better than his numbers at home.

The Indians are 61-20 in their last 81 vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is slumping right now and Cleveland is playing well. I see that continuing on Sunday.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Dylan Covey has a brutal 8.92 ERA on the road in his career. Covey has been terrible in his last few starts. He hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 5 games and he has allowed 4 runs or more in each of those starts. He has walked 15 batters and has only 10 strikeouts during that span. Covey comes into this one in really bad form. 

Felix Hernandez is far from the pitcher he once was. Hernandez is allowing more hard hit balls than he has in any other season in his career. He is coming off the DL and pitchers often aren't sharp in that first game back. 

There have been at least 11 runs scored total in Covey's last four starts. The White Sox bullpen has a 6.62 ERA in the past 30 days, so they are unlikely to provide much relief here. 

Covey could give up a big number here, and Hernandez is shaky at this point as well. There is value on the over in this contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The Colorado Rockies are 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also good against lefties (8th), but they'll go against right hander today, and Arizona is 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

German Marquez has a brilliant 0.98 WHIP and a 2.62 ERA in 9 starts on the road this year. Marquez has only allowed 5.6% of batted balls against him to be barreled, so he's doing a good job limiting the hard contact. 

Robbie Ray can strike out a bunch of people, but his walk rate is more than 5 per nine innings, and he's giving up a ton of hard contact. Ray has allowed more than 45% of batted balls to be hard hit and 10.5% of batted balls to be barreled. Ray has allowed a whopping .454 weighted on base average against this Rockies lineup in his career.

The Diamondbacks are 9-23 in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The DBacks are 2-6 in Ray's last 8 starts vs. the Rockies.

Too big of a price on the underdog here.

Take Colorado.

*3 Star Play on Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians start Trevor Bauer here, and he's been fantastic this year. Bauer has allowed 2 runs or less in 13 of his 19 starts this year. He has struck out at least 8 batters in his last nine contests. He has 11 strikeouts or more in 6 of those 9 outings. Bauer's swinging strike rate has gone from 9.2% last year to 13.2% this season. He's having a breakout season to say the least.

Masahiro Tanaka has only made one start since coming off the DL, and he didn't look good in that start against the lowly Orioles. Tanaka has some bad history against this Indians lineup as well. The Indians have a weighted on base average of .402 against Tanaka. Tanaka has a worse WHIP in day games in his career, and he has had a home run problem in day games as well.

This game means more to the Indians than the Yankees in my opinion. Cleveland is fired up for this series, and they want this game to split the 4 game set. 

The Yankees are without Gleybar Torres and Gary Sanchez. In the past month, the Indians have an OBP 12 points higher than the Yankees.

The Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. The Indians 63-29 in their last 92 home games.

Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star Play on Twins ML* Chris Archer hasn't been quite right all year. He clearly still has potential, but he hasn't been healthy and his mechanics have been a bit off. Archer has allowed 40.6% of batted balls to be hard hit this year. He is walking a few more guys, and getting a bit less swinging strikes and strikeouts as well.

Jose Berrios has been tremendous at home. Berrios had a 2.41 ERA at home last year. He has a 2.49 ERA at home this year. Berrios has a spectacular 0.802 WHIP at home so far this season. Not surprisingly, the Twins are 18-3 in Berrios' last 21 home starts. 

The Rays offense is decent against lefties, but they aren't very good against right handed pitching. Tampa Bay is 5-15 in their last 20 road games. The Rays are also 3-13 in their last 16 road games against a right handed starter.

Berrios has dominated at home, and this is a short enough price to lay it with the home team.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Baltimore Orioles are playing like they are quitting on the season already. This is the last series before the break, and I would be surprised if they show a lot of fight this weekend. The Rangers aren't a good team, but they have clearly still been playing hard. 

Cole Hamels is coming off an awful outing. Hamels didn't even get through the first inning. Hamels' swinging strike rate and most of his advanced metrics suggest he is throwing the ball better this year than last season. He's a proud veteran and I would think he could bounce back against one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Alex Cobb is having a dreadful season. His ERA is above 6 on the season. According to Baseball Savant, Cobb is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers this year in hard hit percentage allowed. Batters are crushing the ball off of him. 

The Rangers bullpen ranks 5th in the majors in the past month, and they have a lot of youngsters throwing it well. The Orioles bullpen is a mess without O'Day and Bleier. 

The Orioles are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-5 in Cobb's last 5 home starts. 

Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Blake Snell is having an incredible season. To say that he's had a breakout campaign is an understatement. Snell has started 19 games this year, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in 16 of those 19 starts. He's allowed one run or fewer in 12 of his 19 starts. 

According to Baseball Savant, Snell ranks in the top five in the majors in hard hit percentage allowed (allowing the least hard hit batted balls). Snell is getting a ridiculous 13.7% swinging strike rate so far this year as well. It's rare to find pitchers with this combination of strikeout stuff and soft contact inducing stuff. 

The Twins are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Minnesota's bullpen has been shakier of late, and now they are without Addison Reed, who has done a great job for them in late innings.

Kyle Gibson is a mediocre pitcher and he's tailed off a bit of late.

The Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. They are 4-0 in Snell's last 4 starts. A 17-0 angle.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels haven't been able to hit left handed pitching all year. The Angels are 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Angels are 10-25 in their last 35 games against a left handed starter.

The Angels face one of the best lefties in the majors in James Paxton tonight. Paxton feels he was slighted in not being named to the All Star team, and I like backing a guy who is pitching to prove a point. Paxton also has positive regression signs with his ERA vs. FIP and SIERA. 

The Mariners are 10th in weighted on base average against lefties. Seattle has Nelson Cruz in the middle of the lineup, and he crushes left handed pitching. Tyler Skaggs starts for the Angels here and this is his first game back from the DL. I like to fade guys in their first game back.

The Angels hitters have a .190 average against Paxton in his career. The Mariners hitters have a great .386 weighted on base average against Skaggs in his career.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been good in the last couple months, but they are much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 4th in weighted on base average at .332 against righties, but they are 15th against lefties at .313. 

The Padres offense is bad against all pitching, but they are especially bad against right handed pitching. San Diego is dead last in the majors with a weighted on base average of just .287 against righties. 

Joey Lucchesi had one bad start after coming back from the DL, but since then he has been pretty sharp. Lucchesi has a deceptive delivery and hitters have had a hard time sizing him up.

Kenta Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts combined. Maeda excels at forcing hitters into weak contact.

Ben May has turned into an excellent under umpire. He has called 64.75% of pitches a strike so far this year. He called 65.17% of pitches a strike last year. The average is right around 63.50%. May is a strike caller.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners* Marco Gonzales has had a breakout season this year. Gonzales is getting hitters to swing at more pitches outside the zone, and that's led to a lot less walks. He's also doing a better job minimizing hard contact.

The Angels rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Angels have Mike Trout and a couple other nice pieces, but this isn't a particularly deep lineup.

Jaime Barria ranks in the bottom 10% of starting pitchers in exit velocity allowed. Batters are hitting it hard off him, and he's been fortunate they have found the glove so often. That isn't likely to continue.

The Mariners have a clear bullpen edge here as well.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Under* Vince Velasquez has pitched significantly better away from Philadelphia. Velasquez is prone to allowing home runs, and Citizens Bank Park has hurt him because of that. Velasquez has a 6.16 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs at home this year. He has a 2.79 ERA and has allowed 2 homers on the road. Citi Field is definitely a pitcher friendly park.

Jacob Degrom has been amazing this year. Degrom has always been very good, but his number are tremendous this year. Degrom has racked up a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate so far this year. On 252 batted balls off Degrom, only 10 balls have been barreled, a great 3.6% rate. Degrom is a rare combination of strikeout pitcher and soft contact inducing pitcher. Degrom has a 0.90 WHIP at home this year.

Both of these offenses have been struggling of late. Dan Bellino is the home plate umpire and the under is 12-1 in his 13 games behind the dish this year. The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts vs. an NL East team. An 18-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies* The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets both send first time starters to the mound tonight. Drew Gagnon gets the ball for the Mets, and Enyel De Los Santos starts for the Phillies.

Gagnon has been in the minors for a long time and is 28 years old. Gagnon has never had all that much success in the minors either. In all of his years in Triple A his ERA's have been: 6.93, 5.56, 6.25, and 4.67. This year he has had the 4.67 ERA, but his FIP if 5.10. Gagnon doesn't have elite stuff.

De Los Santos is one of the Phillies top pitching prospects. He has a 1.89 ERA in Triple A this year. De Los Santos has a great fastball and a very good changeup.

The Mets are without Cespedes, Frazier, Bruce, and Lagares. This lineup is very weakened by injury. The Mets bullpen also ranks in the bottom five in the majors.

The Phillies are pretty healthy for this point of the season, and they have a top 10 bullpen. 

The Mets are 9-25 in their last 34 home games. 

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics rank second in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Oakland has a much deeper lineup than an average team. The A's have a nice mix of power hitters and contact hitters. 

The Houston Astros offense ranks in the top five in the majors. In the last month, they have been great. 

Frankie Montas is striking out less than 6 batters per nine innings. He's also giving up a ton of hard contact. In fact, 49.4% of batted balls have been labeled as hard hit against Montas this year. His home run rate is too low and should regress to the mean. He hasn't been fooling people of late.

Gerrit Cole started the season pitching extremely well. He's been mediocre of late. Cole allowed 3 runs or more in only one of his first eight starts. In his last 10 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or more on 6 occasions. His exit velocity he's allowed is moving up, and his walk rate is much higher in recent outings.

The over is 7-0 in the A's last 7 vs. an AL West team. The over is 6-0 in Montas' last 6 starts. The over is 7-0 in the Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Cole's last 5 starts at home. A 25-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants start Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. Bumgarner started out a bit slowly after he came back from his long DL stint at the start of the season, but he has been much better of late. Bumgarner has allowed 3 runs in his last 21 innings combined. 

Jack Flaherty has been terrific this year. Flaherty has a swinging strike rate of 12.7%, which shows he's fooling a lot of hitters. Flaherty throws 93 and 94 mph on the fastball, but he has very good movement on that pitch. He does a nice job limiting hard contact as well. 

Both of these offense rate in the mediocre category when you look at the advanced data. 

Sunday has been easily the best under day in baseball in the long run, and we have a solid under umpire here in Brian O'Nora. His strikeout/walk ratio is easily over 3 this year. The under is 12-3-1 in O'Nora's last 16 Sunday games behind home plate.

Both teams have some nice under trends. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 last starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 when the Giants are coming off a loss. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Saturday MLB Play of the Day* The San Francisco Giants start Jeff Samardzija here. Samardzija was terrible before going on the DL, and he was bad in Triple A in his rehab starts as well. Samardzija had a 6.56 ERA with a 5.85 FIP in the majors earlier this year in eight starts. He had a 5.29 ERA with a 6.31 FIP in Triple A in his 4 rehab starts. 

Samardzija has been a huge day/night splits guy in his career as well. In day games in his career he has a 4.67 ERA (3.81 at night). He has struggled with walks in day games in the past. This is a difficult spot for him to come back in a day game against a pretty good offense.

Carlos Martinez was shaky when first coming back from the DL, but he's been excellent in his last two starts. Martinez has better pure stuff than Samardzija, and he has held this Giants lineup to a miserable .163 average in 85 at bats. 

Buster Posey is likely to get either Saturday or Sunday off, so we might get the benefit of a top hitter being out for the Giants.

I'll fade Samardzija here in his first game back from the DL.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies are playing good baseball right now. Philadelphia's bullpen has been a big surprise this year, and both of their best guys in the bullpen should be available for this game. Dominguez has been dominant for this team, and the Phillies actually have the 9th best SIERA of any bullpen in baseball. The Pirates are 12th. 

Jake Arrieta continues to do a good job forcing soft contact. Only 28% of batted balls against Arrieta this year have been hit hard. Arrieta isn't as dominant as he was a couple years ago, but he is still a pretty good starter.

Jameson Taillon has been a little shaky of late. His command hasn't been what it normally is. The Pirates have allowed a whopping 48 runs in their last 4 games. They lost 17-5 last night. While many often think a team would bounce back, I ran a query on this and teams who won by 7 or more in the previous game have done very well in the next game (especially when they are an underdog).

The Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a righty. They are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The Phillies are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle.

Take the Phillies.  

*4 Star Play Under* Mike Foltynewicz and Freddy Peralta have both been spectacular this year. Foltynewicz has broken out in a big way this year. He's always been a guy that was expected to be very good, but he hasn't proven it until this year. Foltynewicz has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 11 starts. That's tremendous consistency from the Braves right hander. He does a good job at limiting hard contact, and his swinging strike rate is higher this year than at any other time in his career. 

Freddy Peralta is a youngster who has been dominant so far this year. Peralta has a ridiculous strikeout rate of 13.01 strikeouts per nine innings. He has an amazing 14.1% swinging strike rate. Peralta has allowed no runs in 3 of his 5 starts so far this year. The Braves have been elite against lefties so far this year, but they have been mediocre against righties. 

The under is a whopping 20-5-1 in the Brewers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 85-40-5 in the Brewers last 130 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts vs. Milwaukee.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been tremendous all year. Degrom is getting an amazing 15.5% swinging strikes this year. That's among the best in the majors. Add in that hitters are only making hard contact 29.2% of the time on batted balls off Degrom and you have an elite pitcher. 

The Tampa Bay offense is one of the worst in the majors, and they'll be minus a hitter here. The Rays have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Tampa Bay is worse against right handed pitching, and Degrom is one of the best in the majors.

New York's offense hasn't been good either. Ryne Stanek is the opening pitcher for the Rays here, and this opening pitcher strategy has worked great for the Rays. Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA is the best in baseball since they started this new method. 

The weather here is a big help with winds blowing in at about 13-15 mph. Citi Field is a pitcher's park to start with, and winds do make a big difference here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Diamondbacks rank 27th in weighted on base average in the majors so far this year against right handed pitching. Arizona has a weak bottom of the order and that has hurt them quite a bit this year.

While St. Louis has been decent against right handed pitching, the Cardinals rank 21st in weighted on base average against lefties this year. 

Miles Mikolas is only walking 1.13 batters per nine innings this year. Minimizing walks to that degree can really help in limiting damage. Mikolas has also gotten a lot of softly hit fly balls. 

Patrick Corbin has been great this year. Corbin has 1 walk and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. Corbin is using his slider much more this year, and it is a great pitch. In 8 of his 17 starts so far this year, Corbin has allowed 1 run or less. 

Tony Randazzo has been striking guys out at a really high rate this year behind the plate, and he should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Colorado has bounced back in the last few games, and it has been largely because they have gotten a lot more length out of their starting pitchers and their bullpen isn't so gassed. Colorado has a couple good bullpen arms in Ottovino (excellent) and Davis. Both of those guys are well rested for this game and that is important. 

Tyler Anderson has thrown the ball well of late, and his career ERA at Coors Field is better than his ERA on the road. Anderson is good at creating soft contact, and that helps a lot here. 

Andrew Suarez has pitched into some bad luck this year, but he's a solid youngster as well. Suarez is pitching his best in recent games, and if his batting average on balls in play regresses to the mean, his ERA should drop in the long run as well.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is definitely one of the best under umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently one of the highest in the majors. The weather calls for winds blowing in from center field at about 10 mph here also.

The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 against a lefty. The under is 3-0-1 in Suarez's last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angels have sustained a multitude of injuries. It's no wonder the Angels have dropped back to 43-42 and well behind the Mariners and the Astros. The starting rotation and the bullpen have been crushed by injuries and Zack Cozart is a key piece missing from the lineup.

Wade LeBlanc continues to be underrated at home. His skillset matches this large park in Seattle very well. LeBlanc is a soft tosser who limits hard contact. In Seattle, he gets a lot of fly ball outs. In another park, the fact that he pitches to contact and there are a lot of fly balls coming off opponents bats would be a bad thing, but here it works to his favor. 

Andrew Heaney is a decent lefty for the Angels, but Seattle is excellent against lefties with Cruz in the middle of the order being a big reason why.

The Mariners have a big advantage when it comes to bullpens in this one as well.

The Angels are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a left handed starter. They are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a 60% win percentage or higher. They are 0-4 in Heaney's last 4 when pitching on 5 days of rest. They are 0-5 in Heaney's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is a perfect 12-0 in LeBlanc's last 12 home starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 42-0 angle.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* Brian Johnson has been a pretty good fill in starter for Boston. Johnson being a lefty is a benefit going against this Nationals team. While Washington is very good against right handed pitching, the Nationals are 22nd in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year.

Boston's offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Tanner Roark is having the worst season of his career. His xFIP and SIERA are the highest they have ever been. He's not doing as good of a job getting soft contact, and he's having trouble locating his offspeed pitches.

Boston has been a great interleague team, and the AL has been money against the NL in the past decade.

The Red Sox are 7-0 in Johnson's last 7 starts. They are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a left handed starter. They are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts. They are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 23-0 angle. 

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* There's too much line value for me to pass this one up. It isn't the easiest bet to make because the Cardinals are playing so poorly of late, but I think there is a lot of recency bias in this number. 

The Cardinals and DBacks are very similar teams on the whole. Robbie Ray has been terrible at home during his career. Ray has a 5.05 career ERA at home (it is 3.22 on the road). Ray has a 1.52 WHIP at home and a WHIP of only 1.21 on the road.

Ray is a high strikeout guy who also has very poor control. The Cardinals are in the top ten at drawing walks off left handed pitchers. They should work deep into the count against Ray. 

Carlos Martinez looked great in his last start. Martinez was masterful against a good Indians offense in his last outing. The DBacks rank 27th in weighted on base average in the majors against right handed pitching. 

The Cardinals have one of the lowest batting averages on balls in play against lefties. That should regress to the mean. Almost 50% of balls against Robbie Ray have been classified as hard hit by Baseball Savant. 

This is a tossup game to me, and Vegas is implying odds of between 41% and 42% chance of winning on the Cardinals. I'll grab the big underdog here.

Take the Cardinals. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching at a miserable level of .286. The Pirates rank 23rd in the same category. Pittsburgh has hit lefties well, but right handed pitching has been a problem for them. 

Jameson Taillon is a very solid pitcher who limits the free passes he gives up. Taillon has a 2.87 ERA in 17 career day games.

Tyson Ross has a career ERA of 2.91 at Petco Park. This is one of the best parks in the majors for pitchers. 

The Padres bullpen ranks 10th best in the majors for the season in SIERA and the Pirates rank 10th best. These are two very good bullpens. 

Sunday is the best under day by a wide margin in the majors overall in the past 15 years. These afternoon games to finish off a series can lead to some key hitters getting the day off. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* I don't like to make a habit of going against these Yankees. New York is a really good team with very few weaknesses. The price is too good to pass up going against them here though. 

Chris Sale is the best lefty in baseball right now. Sale's statistics are the best they have been in his career, and he's had some amazing years already. Sale is getting 15.6% swinging strikes which is amazing. He's getting more soft contact this year by a wide margin, and his pitching from ahead in the count on a regular basis. Sale has allowed 1 run or less in 8 starts already this year. He has 2 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last two outings.

Sonny Gray is the biggest weakness in this Yankees rotation right now. Gray has been subpar everywhere, but he's been awful at home. Gray has an ugly 6.23 ERA in 13 career starts at Yankee Stadium. His WHIP is 1.57 in those games.

Chris Sale has a tremendous 1.73 career ERA against the Yankees. 

The Red Sox are the best offense in the majors against right handed pitching, and they face a struggling righty here. Sale is locked in and is laying a much lower price than normal.

Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. Colorado is only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitchers. The Rockies go against lefty Rich Hill in this one.

Hill has struggled so far this season. He has gone less than six innings and allowed 3 runs or more in 5 of his 7 starts. He has already allowed 11 barreled hits in 97 batted balls, and he allowed just 10 of those in 240 batted balls two years ago. Batters are hitting the ball very hard against him.

Tyler Anderson has allowed a very high .427 wOBA against the Dodgers in his career. Justin Turner has 10 hits in 18 at bats against him. Anderson has a 4.62 ERA and a 4.70 FIP so far this year. The Rockies bullpen has a ridiculous 7.90 ERA in the last month. 

The Dodgers bullpen is worn out. They have thrown the third most innings of any bullpen in the past month. 

Both teams hit lefties well and both lefties are vulnerable here. This is a low posted total given all these factors.

The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 Friday games. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Hill's last 4 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox are 54-27 on the season and have the best record in the majors. It is extremely rare to see them as this short of a home favorite, and I'm backing them in this spot.

The Angels are extremely banged up. They are without Cozart, Ohtani, and several key guys in the bullpen. They are a .500 team. 

The early money has steamed the Angels, so I'll take the discounted price on the Red Sox.

Brian Johnson is certainly not a star pitcher by any means, but the Angels are 19th in weighted on base average against lefties.

Jamie Barria is due for regression, and he now faces the best offense in the majors against right handed pitchers and it is on the road. It's a tough spot for the youngster. 

The Red Sox have a big offensive advantage and a significant bullpen edge as well.

The Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a lefty. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. Boston is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 starts. The Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Boston. A 21-0 angle.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Yankees have been on amazing under run of late. The under is 19-2 in the Yankees last 21 games. In a long season like the MLB season, you'll often find some trends like this that can continue for quite some time. I try not to fight those trends any more than I have to.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for Wednesday night's contest between the Yankees and the Phillies, and Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in the majors. There's no other guy you'd want behind the plate for an under.

Cessa is a middle of the road pitcher, but the Phillies offense is inconsistent. Cessa is backed by the best bullpen in the majors.

Eflin has his swinging strike rate up to 10.1% this year. He's throwing harder and getting much softer contact. Only 28.2% of batted balls against him have been classified as hard hit. 

The under is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 interleague games. The under is 6-0 in Cessa's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 25-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Ross Stripling has quickly turned into a terrific pitcher. A deep dive into his numbers shows a guy who is no fluke. Stripling is allowing only 25.7% of batted balls to be hit hard. He is also striking out 10.58 batters per nine innings. He is walking only 1.37 per nine innings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts so far this year. 

Jon Lester has allowed the Dodgers lineup to hit only .198 in his career. Lester has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts. 

The Dodgers and Cubs both have solid bullpens. 

Bill Miller is a tremendous under umpire. His strike zone is big to start with, and it expands with two strikes on the batter. That should be a big help to both of these pitchers who are good at nibbling at the corners.

The under is 19-5-2 in Stripling's last 26 starts. The under is 22-8 in the Cubs last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Washington Nationals on Monday night. This is a difficult spot for the Nationals. Washington hosted the Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball. That game was delayed by rain and then finished a little after 12:30 am EST.

Washington will get a lot less rest than Tampa Bay here. The Rays were home against the Yankees in their last series. The Nationals are already very banged up to start with, and this is a spot where we could see a key player or two sit out for Washington because of the tough spot.

Blake Snell has been the better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez this year. Snell has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 13 of his 16 starts so far this year. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in a home start all season.

The Rays have the lowest batting average on balls in play in high leverage spots in the majors, so they are due for some positive regression on offense. Tampa Bay is much better against lefties than righties.

Tampa Bay is 10-2 in Snell's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets offense has been dreadful of late. The Mets had one good series offensively in Colorado, but outside of that they have been really bad. 

The Mets rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average at home (.279). That's easily worst in the majors. Brandon Nimmo has been the team's most consistent hitter, and he will likely miss this game after getting injured on Sunday. Cespedes continues to be out. Jay Bruce and Juan Lagares are out as well.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have crushed lefties this year, but they are worse than the average big league team against right handed pitching. 

Jameson Taillon has been great on the road, and his advanced stats show he's thrown it better than his ERA would suggest. He's due for some positive regression.

Seth Lugo has been nearly unhittable at home so far this year. Lugo's higher velocity combined with his excellent curveball make him a guy who should continue to have success. 

The wind is blowing in here at about 10 mph at Citi Field for this one. This is a park that has a great under record with the wind blowing in. 

The under is 4-0 in Lugo's last 4 home starts. The under is 5-0 in Taillon's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East.  A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees were swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. New York is one of the best teams in baseball, and I expect them to get back on track quickly. The Yankees bullpen is arguably the best in baseball, and despite playing an extra innings game this bullpen hasn't been used up too badly of late. The Yankees bullpen has an amazing 1.19 ERA in the last 30 days.

Vince Velasquez has a major home run problem. Velasquez allowed 2.35 homers per nine innings when pitching at home last year. He's allowing 2.16 homers per nine innings at home this year. This is a hitter-friendly park, and Velasquez is giving up a lot of hard contact and fly balls. The Yankees are definitely not the team you want to face when that has been a problem for you.

Jonathan Loaisiga is an interesting youngster for the Yankees. Through the minors he was known for elite control. He was routinely allowing only one walk per nine innings or so. He also has a high swinging strike rate and a high strikeouts per nine innings ratio. The Phillies strikeout at the highest percentage of any team in the majors.

Philadelphia had to play late Sunday night, so the Yankees would have gotten to town earlier than the Phillies. 

The Phillies are 3-13 in Velasquez's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 36-15 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are expected to be without Lorenzo Cain and likely Ryan Braun for this series finale. The Cardinals are still without Paul DeJong as well.

Jhoulys Chacin has a 2.31 ERA at home so far this year. Chacin has had some drastic home/road splits the last few years. Chacin is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Brewers should have Josh Hader and Corey Knebel available for this one. 

Luke Weaver is due for some positive regression. Weaver has elite stuff and his advanced metrics suggest he is better than his ERA would make you think.

With this being a Sunday afternoon game- don't be surprised if even a healthy key bat or two is missing from the lineup here.

The under is 38-16-2 in Mike Winters' last 56 Sunday games behind the dish. Winters is a bit of an under umpire in general, and Sunday has been the best under day in MLB overall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* Francisco Liriano is coming off an injury, and he didn't pitch well in his lone rehab start at Triple A. Liriano has been crushed by this Indians lineup. Cleveland's hitters have an impressive .372 weighted on base average against Liriano in his career. Liriano isn't far from the end of his career, and his stuff isn't nearly as good as it was a few years ago.

Trevor Bauer is having a breakout season. Bauer has always had potential, and he was selected in the first round (pick #3) in the MLB draft in 2011. Now, he is showing why he was so highly thought of in the past. Bauer is throwing first pitch strikes more than he ever has, and when he gets ahead he has a devastating slider to put batters away with. 

Bauer's swinging strike rate has always been in the 9% range, but this year it has jumped to a whopping 13.1%. Another big key here is Bauer has been throwing deep into the game. He has gone 6 and 2/3 innings or more in 10 starts already this year. The Indians bullpen is extremely well rested here as well.

Detroit is 25th in wOBA (weighted on base average) against righties. The Indians are 2nd in wOBA at home.

A mismatch here.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Atlanta Braves ML* Significant money has come in on the Baltimore Orioles here, and I have to fade that early line move. 

The Baltimore Orioles have been a mess all year. Dylan Bundy starts here, and there is no doubt he has a high upside, but he isn't consistent. The Orioles bullpen has the worst xFIP in the majors, and they are certainly a bottom five bullpen. Baltimore's offense ranks third worst in the majors in weighted on base average.

The Orioles are 13-42 in their last 55 road games. They are 11-40 in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Atlanta has been great at bouncing back from losses. They lost in extra innings on Friday night. Atlanta is 24-8 in their last 32 following a loss. The Braves are also 7-1 in Teheran's last 8 home starts.

Lance Barksdale is behind the plate here. I usually don't make too much out of home/road team splits for umpires, but Barksdale's are extreme. The home team has won 61% of his games as a home plate umpire and betting the home team in each of Barksdale's home plate games in his career would have you up 50 units now.

Too cheap of a price.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* The Chicago Cubs are a far superior team to the Cincinnati Reds. Give the Reds credit for playing much better of late, but I think this line shows some significant recency bias. 

Luis Castillo is a guy with a high upside to be sure, but he isn't throwing the ball well right now. Castillo allowed 29.6% of batted balls to be hard hit last year. It is all the way up to 38.4% this year. He has allowed less than 3 runs only 4 times in 15 starts. Home runs have been a major problem for him, and the Cubs lineup has plenty of power.

Jose Quintana has always been better on the road than at home. Quintana has a 2.78 ERA on the road this season.

Castillo and the Reds are both overpriced here. It's rare that the Cubs are underrated in the marketplace, but that's the case on Friday.

Take the Cubs. 

*4 Star Play on Oakland A's ML* James Shields isn't good at all. Shields has a 4.63 ERA and his xFIP and SIERA are both above 5. He has been prone to allowing home runs in past years, but he is minimizing homers so far this season. I think that will regress to the mean. 

Shields' fastball sits at 89 pretty consistently now. He's lost 3 mph off the fastball from 4 years ago. Shields regularly gets behind in the count thanks to poor control, and that can lead to major problems for him.

Oakland is second in weighted on base average on the road this year. The White Sox are 26th in wOBA at home this season.

The lineup looks good for Oakland despite it being the first game of the doubleheader. Davis is back in the lineup which is a nice boost. 

Sean Manaea went through a rough patch for a while, but he is clearly the better starter here. His upside is tremendous, and the White Sox are terrible against lefties.

The A's have the much better lineup and the much better starter and I'd call this bullpens pretty even.

Oakland is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The White Sox are 3-12 in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They are also 1-8 in Shields' last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies host the series finale against the New York Mets on Thursday afternoon. Kyle Freeland goes to the mound for the Rockies, and he's been tremendous at home in his young career. Freeland excels at inducing soft contact, and that has helped me be a rare started who can have success at Coors Field. 

Freeland goes against a New York Mets lineup that is easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Freeland has a career 3.52 ERA at Coors Field (21 starts). He is getting 8.9% swinging strikes compared to only 7.5% last year. 

Steven Matz has a 3.31 ERA, but his FIP is 5.06. He's pitched into some very good luck this year. Matz has a batting average on balls in play of only .244 after it was .329 a year ago. He's allowed more hard hit balls and more batters have gotten the barrel of the bat on his pitches this year. What's it all mean? He's due for some regression to the mean. 

You can never tell exactly when regression will hit, but expecting it to come in an afternoon game at Coors Field against a Rockies team that is very good at hitting lefties makes a lot of sense to me. 

The Mets are 0-4 in Matz's last 4 starts against the Rockies.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics go up against a young lefty in Joey Lucchesi for the Padres here. Oakland is 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and Lucchesi has a unique delivery that often catches people off guard the first few times they face him. 

Frankie Montas is a pretty highly rated prospect in the A's organization, and he starts this one for Oakland. San Diego is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Not having seen Montas should be a negative for the Padres as well.

This is a get away day game and that is a positive for the under. The pitcher batting for Oakland is a big positive here as well.

Both of these teams have multiple key hitters out with injuries, and the short-handed lineups simply aren't very good.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale is as dominant as any lefty in the game right now. Sale has a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 15.4%. He is allowing far less hard contact than he did last year. Sale is also good at limiting his walks and making hitters beat him, and not too many can beat Sale when he is throwing it well.

The Twins offense ranks 20th in the majors against left handed pitching according to weighted on base average. Minnesota has been terrible against lefties in the last month, and this is as tough of a matchup as they will ever get.

Jose Berrios has been amazing at home in the last couple seasons. Berrios' swinging strike rate was only 9.4% last year, but it is all the way up at 11.8% this season. Berrios is walking only 1.51 batters per nine innings. His ERA is 3.51, but his FIP is 3.33 and his SIERA is 3.29. 

The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 following a day off. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in the Red Sox last 5 in game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Twing last 4 games vs. a left handed starter. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves start Mike Soroka here. Soroka has been spectacular in the minors, and his career in the big leagues has started out very well also. Soroka has been elite at keeping the ball in the park, and his command is very good. 

The Braves bullpen has actually outpitched the Blue Jays bullpen by quite a bit in the past month. Osuna being out hurts the Jays bullpen significantly. 

Jaime Garcia has been bad this year. Garcia is allowing an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph, which is 7th worst out of all pitchers in the big leagues. Garcia is prone to the long ball, and the Braves have a lot of pop. Atlanta ranks 3rd in weighted on base average in the majors against lefties.

The Jays aren't the same team without Donaldson and Osuna.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The New York Yankees have seen 12 straight games go under the total. The Yankees offense is still very good, but their totals have been set too high considering they have arguably the best bullpen in the majors and a quality starting staff too.

Seattle's bullpen is top 6 in the majors in most statistics as well. The Mariners start Marco Gonzales here. Gonzales has been highly rated as a prospect for quite some time. He didn't throw it well in his first couple years in the bigs, but he has a very solid 3.42 ERA and a 3.20 FIP so far this season. 

Domingo German has a very high swinging strike rate of 15.6%. German has a lot of spin on his breaking ball, and his upside is high. 

The wind is blowing in for this contest.

The under is 12-0 in the Yankees last 12 games. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The under is 4-0 in German's last 4 games. A 36-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 15 contests. New York's offense has been woeful in recent weeks. 

The Mets aren't good offensively against either side, but they are woeful against left-handed pitching. The Mets have a .261 weighted on base average against lefties. That's worst in the majors by a mile. The second worst wOBA against lefties is the Marlins and they are at .291. 

Tyler Anderson has been good at Coors Field with a 3.73 ERA there in his career. Anderson has a high 12.1% swinging strike rate going so far this year.

Jacob Degrom has been one of the top three pitchers in baseball so far this year. Degrom has been spectacular. He has a 1.55 ERA and a 1.98 FIP. His swinging strike rate is a ridiculous 15.1% on the season. Degrom has allowed 182 batted balls this year and according to Baseball Savant only 5 of those balls have been barreled. Degrom is getting lots of swings and misses and lots of weak contact.

It's Coors Field and games can certainly get high scoring, but it helps to have wind blowing in at 10 mph here.

The under is 7-0 in the Mets last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. An 18-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers get to go against James Shields in the finale of this series. Shields has thrown the ball better than I expected him to so far this year, but there are still plenty of warning signs when looking at his advanced statistics. Despite a 4.63 ERA on the year, Shields has a 5.20 xFIP and 5.09 SIERA. He is averaging only 5.94 strikeouts per nine innings. Shields has allowed a lot of home runs in the past few years, and I think his home run rate will worsen the rest of the way.

Blaine Hardy has been pretty good for the Tigers. Hardy has a 3.55 ERA and a 3.56 FIP on the season. His hard contact rates allowed are lower this year than in the past. Hardy threw 7 innings and allowed only one run recently against the White Sox.

The White Sox are in the bottom five in the majors against lefties. Chicago is 13-28 in their last 41 vs. a lefty. They are 5-14 in their last 19 vs. an AL Central opponent. The White Sox are 1-6 in Shields' last 7 after a quality start in his last outing.

Take Detroit here. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* Carlos Martinez has walked 12 batters in 7 and 2/3 innings since coming back from the disabled list and a LAT injury. Martinez leads the majors in hit batters this year as well. He's been fairly wild overall, but since the injury Martinez is routinely getting behind in the count. 

The Cubs aren't the team you want to be facing when you are struggling with command. The Cubs rank third in walk percentage with 9.7% of their at bats ending in a walk. They'll make Martinez throw strikes here.

Kyle Hendricks has a solid 3.38 ERA in five starts in St. Louis. Hendricks has a brilliant 2.74 ERA in night games in his career. He is a guy who comes into this one throwing the ball well.

The Cubs hold a clear bullpen advantage here, and the Cubs are the much healthier team. Jose Martinez being out of the lineup hurts the Cardinals.

Take Chicago here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Braves have actually been better offensively on the road than at home. Atlanta has a very talented young offense, but they have been slumping a bit of late. The Braves have scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 contests.

Sean Newcomb is more than capable of dominating a game. Newcomb sometimes struggles with walks, but having a major strike caller behind the plate in the form of home plate umpire Doug Eddings is a big help for him.

Jordan Lyles has improved from last year, and I would expect him to be the type of guy who benefits from Eddings behind the plate as well.

Eddings has called the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the last five years. 

The under is 12-5 in Newcomb's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies have struggled all year against right handed pitching, but they are very good against lefties. Colorado ranks 8th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Rockies are 23rd against right handed pitching. They get to face a lefty in this one. Not only do they face a lefty, but it is a bad lefty in Yohander Mendez. 

Mendez has been knocked around to the tune of a 5.26 ERA and a 6.17 FIP in Triple A this year. He allowed a high 1.75 homers per nine innings in Triple A this year. He allowed 2.19 homers per nine innings last year in the majors. Mendez is only being started here, because the Rangers are banged up and really don't have many options at all.

Chad Bettis starts for the Rockies, and while I'm not all that high on Bettis, he is better than Mendez. He also gets to face a Rangers offense that is very weak against right handed pitching. The Rangers are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. Bettis has a 2.03 ERA in seven road starts this season. 

The Rockies also get one of the top five bullpen pitchers in baseball back for this one as Adam Ottavino returns from the disabled list. 

The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 against a right handed starter.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox start Carlos Rodon here. Rodon was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball a couple years ago. He's dealt with quite a few injuries, but he's been in great form in the minors this year, and his upside is tremendous. Rodon had a 1.42 ERA and averaged more than 15 strikeouts per nine innings in his 3 Triple A appearances earlier this year. He has held the Indians lineup to a very low .251 weighted on base average in his career.

Mike Clevinger has proven to be a solid pitcher at this point in his career. He pitches fairly deep into the game and he's up against a White Sox lineup that is badly struggling right now. Clevinger has a terrific 3.06 ERA in day games in his career. 

The wind is blowing in about 8 mph for this one and the temperature is fairly moderate for this time of year. 

It's a get away day game where it is very likely we'll see some key players sitting this one out.

The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 home games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. A 16-0 angle combined.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Minnesota Twins are laying a big price on the road here. I think it's too big. Jose Berrios is a very talented pitcher, but his road record so far in his career isn't very good. Berrios has a 3.90 ERA at home in his career and a 5.41 ERA on the road. 

Minnesota is only 3-13 in Berrios' last 16 road starts. They are 2-5 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Matt Boyd has been a solid starter this year for the Tigers. His swinging strike rate is at a career high so far this year. Detroit is healthier on offense than they have been in quite some time as well.

The Tigers are 5-0 in Boyd's last 5 home starts. 

The Twins deserved to be favored here, but this is too big of a price.

Take Detroit. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks still rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the year. They have hit really well of late, but I don't think this is a good offense long-term without Pollock healthy. 

Jameson Taillon is an above average pitcher who has pitched into some bad luck so far this year. Taillon's velocity is up this year and so is his swinging strike rate. I expect him to have a solid season.

Zack Greinke has been very good this year. Greinke isn't issuing many free passes at all, and this Pirates offense has been much better against lefties than righties.

Both of these offenses are much better against lefties than righties, and both see a quality right handed starter here.

Ryan Blakney is behind the plate and he's one of the best under umpires in the game. This is also a get away day game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense has hit left handed pitching very well this year, but they have been bad against right handers. They face one of the top young right handed starters in the game now in Aaron Nola. 

The Phillies are also much better against left handed pitching. They are up against Jon Gray, who is a good pitcher and due for some positive regression. Gray has a 5.66 ERA, but an impressive 3.12 FIP and 3.21 xFIP. Gray is getting 12.2% swinging strikes this year, and all of his advanced statistics are the best they have been in his career.

Nola has allowed more than 3 runs only one time this year. He has allowed 2 or less in 10 of his 13 starts. His consistency has been really impressive.

I see a lower scoring game here with both starters throwing the ball well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* The Chicago Cubs go to Milwaukee and for the Cubs I see this as a really important series. They are the team to beat, but Milwaukee has been better than them to this point in the season. The Cubs still have the more balanced team, and in this one they have a starting pitching advantage.

Jose Quintana has been throwing the ball well overall of late. Quintana's career numbers against the Brewers are amazing. Quintana has a 0.63 ERA in 43 innings pitched against Milwaukee. In 174 at bats, the Brewers have hit a total of zero home runs off Quintana. 

Junior Guerra has given up hard contact all year long, and he should regress to the mean over the rest of the year. His ERA is much better than his FIP or xFIP right now. Guerra has pitched well against the Cubs, but it is in a small sample size.

The Brewers are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cubs are 3rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

The Cubs are 40-14 in their last 54 road games vs. a right handed starter. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 following a road trip of 7 days or more. 

Take the Cubs. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves have crushed left handed pitching this year. The Braves are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Braves have been mediocre against righties this year. 

Ross Stripling has been as underrated as anyone in the majors so far this year. Stripling has a ridiculously low ERA and his FIP of 1.99 suggests it isn't just luck. Stripling mixes up his pitches well and gets a lot of late movement. Stripling has allowed just 5 runs in his last 35 innings pitched. Stripling has 4 walks and 47 strikeouts during that time.

Sean Newcomb has been great for the Braves this year. Newcomb has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of his 12 starts this year.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he's a great under umpire. The under is 42-14 in Miller's last 56 Sunday games behind the plate. His strike percentage is one of the highest in the majors every year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* As long as the Reds are a virtual pick'em on the moneyline against quality teams, I'll look to fade them as often as I can. 

The Reds are one of the worst teams in baseball. Cincinnati finds ways to lose games. The Reds bullpen has been overused in a big way over the last few days. They have played two extra inning games in their last three days. 

The Cardinals have a deep lineup- and they have a good starting pitcher in Carlos Martinez going in this one. Martinez has had success against the Reds in the past as he has been very good against Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Billy Hamilton.

Anthony DeSclafani has potential, but he's recovering from a major injury and isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. His starts in the minors weren't very encouraging.

The Cardinals are a whopping 13-0 in their last 13 games vs. the Reds. The Cardinals are 8-0 in Martinez's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. They are also 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the NL Central. A 27-0 angle.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Koch's numbers in Triple A weren't good. In the majors, Koch has been fortunate and has a quality ERA. His advanced numbers suggest regression is coming as he continues to give up lots of hard contact and he can't miss bats often enough.

Chad Bettis is much worse pitching at home compared to on the road. Bettis has a 5.48 ERA in his career at home. Bettis is another low strikeout guy, and his style of pitching doesn't match this ballpark well at all.

The Rockies bullpen is worse without Ottavino. The DBacks bullpen and the Rockies bullpen have been used heavily of late.

The temperature of 95 degrees during this game is a big positive for the over. That kind of heat at Coors Field is great for the ball to carry well. 

Both offenses appear to be breaking out of their funks, and I see this as a matchup of two very weak starters.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have owned the Cincinnati Reds in the past few seasons. The Cardinals start Michael Wacha here, and he has a great track record against Cincinnati. 

Luis Castillo has tons of potential, but he gets himself into trouble with big innings and a lot of long balls allowed. 

The Cardinals are the significantly better team here. There has been money come in on the Reds early and I'll go against this early line move. When I can get a good price like this to fade one of the worst teams in baseball- I have to do it.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last 5 vs. the NL Central. They are 9-0 in their last 9 games played in Cincinnati. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last 5 starts vs. the Reds. A 19-0 angle.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's never easy to take an under at Coors Field, but this Rockies team is definitely different than Colorado teams from the past 10 years or so. They are much less of an offensive juggernaut now and they are winning a lot of games with pitching.

German Marquez was a highly touted prospect all through his time in the minors. Marquez has thrown the ball really well in his last four games. His velocity is up quite a bit from last year, and he's starting to generate more swings and misses.

Zack Greinke has pitched pretty well at Coors Field in his career. Greinke is having another very solid season this year and he's backed by a good bullpen.

The DBacks are dead last at 30th in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. Teh Rockies aren't much better at 24th. 

The under is 9-3 in Marquez's last 12 home starts. The under is 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the DBacks. 

Take the under.