*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and it isn't close. The Cardinals have a .377 wOBA and the second best team in the majors has a .360 wOBA against lefties. With Goldschmitt and Arenado in the middle of the lineup, this team will continue to be good against left handed pitching.

Eric Lauer is having a good season, and I think he is a pretty good pitcher. I don't think he is as good as his 2.16 ERA this year suggests though. Lauer has faced a weak group of lineups for the year and his FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. He now has to face the best lineup against left handed pitching.

Adam Wainwright has a 2.87 ERA and a 3.85 FIP and 4.11 xFIP. He is due for regression as well. Wainwright is a decent pitcher, but he is no longer an outstanding starter.

Josh Hader is away from the team and is doubtful for this one. That really hurts the Brewers bullpen. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics have had 12 games in which they scored one run or fewer in the last month. Oakland has a very high strikeout rate and Robbie Ray is a tough matchup when you are a team who swings and misses a lot.

The Seattle Mariners offense doesn't have the same upside without Mitch Haniger. Paul Blackburn has been dealing of late, and he goes up against a mediocre Seattle offense here.

Ray has been much better pitching at home. It isn't too surprising since Seattle is clearly a pitcher's park.

Paul Blackburn has a fantastic 1.91 ERA and a 2.30 FIP on the season. He's having a breakout season. He's allowed more than 2 runs only once this year. 

Mike Muchlinski is the home plate umpire here, and he is a strike caller. He should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Chris Bassitt and Logan Webb are two of the more underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Bassitt has allowed one run or fewer in 5 of his 8 starts this season. He has good control and doesn't give up much hard contact. Webb has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.10 FIP on the season. Webb also has great career splits when pitching at home. He has a 3.13 ERA and a .290 wOBA allowed at home.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire for this game. Ortiz has become a really solid under umpire. The under is 26-9 in his last 35 games behind home plate. His strikeout/walk ratio suggests he is calling borderline pitches strikes on the regular especially on strike three. 

The Giants lineup has scored just 5 runs in their last three games overall. They are shorthanded right now. The Mets have been inconsistent on offense this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals absolutely crush left handed pitching. St. Louis is easily first in the majors in both wOBA and wRC+ against left handed pitching. It shouldn't come as a big surprise with Paul Goldschmitt and Nolan Arenado in the middle of the order. 

This Cardinals lineup has also hit Jose Quintana extremely well. Quintana starts for the Pirates in this contest. The Cardinals lineup has a stellar .337 batting average and .409 wOBA against Quintana in 107 plate appearances.

Matthew Liberatore is a top 5 prospect in the Cardinals organization. He's a top 100 prospect overall. He's a lefty with multiple plus pitches. The Pirates rank in the bottom 7 teams in the majors against left handed pitching. This is a good opportunity for Liberatore to break in against a weak lineup.

The Cardinals are 17-5 in their last 22 games against left handed starters. 

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense has finally woke up. Trevor Story is on fire now, and that is fueling this offense to bigger things. Boston has scored 39 runs in their last six games. 

Robbie Ray has been away for personal reasons, but is expected back for this start. Ray hasn't been very good this year. His velocity is down quite a bit, and his swinging strike rate is down from a year ago. 

Michael Wacha starts for the Red Sox. He's coming off the injured list for this one. Wacha hasn't been good in recent seasons, and I don't put too much faith into him being a lot better just because of 5 good starts this year. He has a 1.38 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 4.23 xFIP so he is definitely due for regression.

I think the Seattle offense has some guys who will hit better in the long run. Jesse Winker is a good hitter who hasn't been very good this year. Rodriguez is a really talented youngster who I expect to pick up his level as well.

The wind is blowing out about 10 mph at Fenway which is a nice boost.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Apparently Carlos Hernandez needs some time to get warmed up. In his career, he has a 7.26 ERA with a terrible .388 weighted on base average allowed in the first half of the season. In the second half, he has a solid 3.55 ERA and a .299 wOBA. Hernandez is off to a terrible start this year. He has more walks than strikeouts on the season, and his ERA is above 9.

Vince Velasquez has never been a very good pitcher, but his biggest problem has always been his inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Velasquez is allowing 1.95 home runs per nine innings this year. The advanced metrics show that Velasquez has given up the highest percentage of hard hit batted balls this year that he has at any point in his career. 

The weather here calls for mid 80's with wind blowing out at about 15 mph. The ball will be flying well. With both of these pitchers given up hard contact and having a lot of traffic on the bases consistently, there could be some big innings in this one.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire and in the long run he has been one of the best over umpires in the majors.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets start Max Scherzer here. Scherzer has been really good against everyone in his career, but he has absolutely dominated this St. Louis Cardinals lineup. In 194 plate appearances, the Cardinals lineup has a .156 batting average and a .191 wOBA against Scherzer. They have 9 walks and 66 strikeouts against Scherzer. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and I would expect a strong performance from him here.

Jordan Hicks has the stuff to be a high quality pitcher, and the Mets are without Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo is questionable for this one. The Cardinals have a deep bullpen and the Mets are a streaky offense.

I think the pitching will have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Spenser Watkins gets the start at home against the New York Yankees in this one. Watkins is a guy with a lot of potential, but he is really struggling thus far in his young big league career. 

Watkins has a swinging strike rate of only 7.7%. He has 12 walks and 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. His xERA is in the 6th percentile of all pitchers. His average exit velocity allowed is in the 15th percentile. Watkins is giving up a lot of home runs. He also has a career ERA of 8.36 when pitching at home. Watkins is allowing opposing hitters to have a .449 wOBA at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 

The Yankees offense has woke up in a big way of late. The Yankees have scored 49 runs in their last six games! They should get to Watkins in this one. The Orioles bullpen that was excellent early in the season has really struggled in the last few weeks as well.

Jameson Taillon is a good pitcher, but he is due for a little regression. Taillon has a 2.93 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and 3.65 xFIP. The Orioles do have some power and this is a hitters park.

The umpire here is Torres and he is an over umpire. His strikeout/walk ratio has been extremely low the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed hitters. Colorado have a .362 wOBA against left handers. The Rockies have several guys who really have great career splits against left handed pitchers, so I expect them to continue to be very good against lefties.

Daniel Lynch hasn't proven himself as anything more than a mediocre or slightly worse lefty at this point in his career. Lynch has had some control problems and he gives up too many home runs. That isn't good when you are against this Rockies lineup at Coors Field. 

While the Rockies are great against lefties, Kansas City is a bottom ten offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Austin Gomber has thrown the ball well at Coors Field in his career. Gomber has a tremendous 2.52 ERA in 12 starts at Coors Field.

Gomber has also been much better in the first half of the season than in the second half of the season in his career. Gomber has a 3.87 lifetime ERA in the first half vs. a 5.25 ERA in the second half. 

Take Colorado here. 

*3 Star Play Under* George Kirby has been a top 25 or 30 prospect in all of baseball. Kirby has a fastball that runs up to 98 or 99 mph. He also has some of the best control you will ever see. His ability to put the ball right where he wants it and not walk hardly anyone has impressed scouts for years. Kirby should have a bright future in the majors.

Chris Bassitt is an underrated starting pitcher. He has good command and does a good job limiting hard contact. His highest FIP in the last three years has been 3.59, so he is clearly an above average pitcher.

The Mariners have been really struggling on offense of late. Mitch Haniger is a key cog for this offense, and without him they haven't looked good. Seattle has now scored 2 runs or less in seven of their last ten games.

Adam Hamari is the home plate umpire here and he carries a high strikeout walk ratio consistently, and is a top ten under umpire in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average. Kansas City also ranks second to last in the majors in ISO. The Royals haven't been able to string hits together very often this year.

The Colorado Rockies offense is good at home as they always are, but they are shorthanded without Kris Bryant and this isn't an elite offense like it was a few years ago.

Zack Greinke has a solid ERA of 4.01 at Coors Field in his career. Greinke isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago, but he is still at worst an average starting pitcher. The Royals bullpen has major positive regression signs due to bad batted ball luck so far this season.

Kyle Freeland has been solid all year, and he has learned how to pitch at Coors Field in recent seasons.

Even at Coors, this is a high total for two offenses that are shorthanded and a game with two pretty good starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have been an over machine of late. The over is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games. Their offense has been better, and their pitching staff is absolutely horrendous. 

Vladimir Gutierrez may be the worst pitcher on the Reds roster, and he is the starting pitcher here. Gutierrez has 17 walks and only 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. He has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.53 FIP. Gutierrez has really ugly numbers at Great American Ballpark in his career, and I don't see a reason to think he gets on track here.

Adrian Houser has been decent so far this year, but he does have ugly numbers against this Reds lineup. Houser has allowed a .394 batting average and a .461 wOBA against this Cincinnati lineup. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is a top five over umpire in the majors. Wegner consistently has a low strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 12 of their last 15 games. The Detroit Tigers have been shut out in back to back games, and they haven't scored more than 2 runs in any of their last five games. 

These two teams rank second to last and last in the majors in weighted on base average this year. The A's are slightly better against lefties than righties, but they are still only 24th out of 30 teams in wOBA. Detroit is 29th out of 30 in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Tarik Skubal has tremendous control. Skubal is averaging just 1.01 walks per nine innings so far this year. He has a 3.04 ERA and a fantastic 2.21 FIP. 

Frankie Montas has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.29 FIP on the season. Montas has allowed 2 runs or less in four of his last five starts.

The wind is forecast to be blowing in at about 12 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Baseball is a streaky sport. Offenses can go on streaks or stay in slumps for a good while through the course of the season. In the last 14 days, Detroit ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average. Oakland ranks dead last at 30th. 

The truth is these two offenses aren't good in general though, and that is especially true against right handed pitching. Where do they rank in the majors against right handed pitching so far this year? Detroit once again ranks 28th and Oakland is dead last at 30th. These two offenses are much better against lefties, but there are two right handed starters on the mound for this one.

Paul Blackburn has had a very strong year so far this year. He does a good job throwing strikes and staying ahead of hitters. Blackburn also does a good job limiting home runs.

Michael Pineda still has good stuff. He isn't terribly consistent, but the Oakland bats have scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last ten games. 

In this one- the wind is forecast to be blowing in from center field at about 12-15 mph during this game. A nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Oakland A's offense is really bad. Oakland has a .197 batting average against right handed pitching this year. Oakland has scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last nine games. The A's are up against a solid right handed pitcher here in Chris Paddack. 

Paddack has a good 3.15 ERA this year and an amazing 1.93 FIP in his four starts. He isn't likely to be hit very much by this Oakland offense. He's always had elite control, and he is averaging less than one walk per nine innings this year. 

Daulton Jeffries is a middle of the road pitcher, but he has some upside. Also, the Minnesota Twins lineup is very injured right now. Carlos Correa is doubtful for this game. Byron Buxton left yesterday's game due to a minor injury and he is questionable at best for this game. Minnesota doesn't have much lineup depth overall.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I was hoping to get a 7 on this total, but the string of unders in Major League Baseball this year has led to this one being at 6.5. I'm still going to recommend a smaller (regular 3 star rated play) play on this one. 

The splits here set up very nicely. Sean Manaea is a high quality lefty, and the Marlins have a .198 batting average against lefties so far this year. They are a bottom five offense in baseball against left handed pitching.

San Diego has been really good against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is a quality right handed pitcher. Lopez has a 1.29 ERA and a stellar 2.06 FIP on the season. 

These two offenses are at a disadvantage against the starters, and the bullpens are above average as well. This game is played at a very pitcher-friendly park.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds are 1-19 in their last 20 games. Only one of those 19 losses has been by one run. This Reds team is historically bad. Joey Votto and Jonathan India are out of the lineup now, and those two are their best hitters. 

Hunter Greene has great potential for the Reds, but he is still a project. His command isn't very consistent, and he isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game. The Reds have to be careful with Greene due to his velocity and how young he is.

Adrian Houser has a 3.21 ERA at home in his career, and he will be up against what is the worst lineup in baseball right now. The Brewers extremely good bullpen is well rested and ready to go here as well.

The Reds are an absolute mess now, and I don't think the oddsmakers have quite caught up to how bad things are for Cincinnati.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds are 3-20 on the season. This team is just horrific in every way. They are a whopping 1-18 in their last 19 games. Only one of those losses was by one run. If you had been betting the -1.5 line against the Reds  in the last 19 games, you would have cashed 17 times. 

If things weren't going bad enough for the Reds, they have seen both Jonathan India and Joey Votto, their two best players, go down this week. India has an injury and Votto is one the COVID list. Cincinnati's offense wasn't good to start with, and now it is extremely weak.

Freddy Peralta has been exceptional through his career in the first half of the season. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. 

Vladimir Gutierrez starts for the Reds, and he is a subpar pitcher. He doesn't usually pitch deep into games, and the Reds have a very weak bullpen. The Brewers have what might be the best bullpen in the National League.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay ML* The Tampa Bay Rays came back to win in extra innings on Tuesday night in Oakland. Oakland has now lost five games in a row. They have come back down to earth after a hot start. 

Corey Kluber starts for the Rays in this series finale and he has great numbers against this Oakland lineup. How good? Kluber has held this Oakland lineup to a .122 batting average and a .155 wOBA in 45 plate appearance. That is a small sample size, but Oakland's offense is one of the weakest in the majors, and I like Kluber here against them.

Frankie Montas starts for the A's. He is a quality pitcher, but he is worse pitching in the first half of the season, and he has been worse in his career pitching during day games as well.

Tampa Bay has the better defense and the much better bullpen. They also have the better lineup.

Take the Rays. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays start Alex Manoah in this one and he has been tremendous both so far this year and in his career in the first half of the season. Manoah has allowed just 4 runs in 25 innings pitched this year. He has a career 2.34 ERA in the first half of the season. 

Manoah has also been dominant when pitching at home so far in his young career. He has a 2.14 ERA and an amazing .155 batting average allowed at home. 

Jameson Taillon has been throwing the ball well for the Yankees so far this year. He has a 3.26 ERA and a 3.42 xFIP. Taillon has only walked two batters in his four starts so far this year.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire in this one, and Kulpa has been consistently one of the four or five best under umpires in baseball. He had a stunning 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year which was the second highest in all of baseball. He should help both pitchers in this game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Seattle Mariners offense isn't nearly as good without slugger Mitch Haniger in the middle of the order. Seattle doesn't have the kind of lineup depth to be without Haniger and Lewis and still consistently hit well.

Houston expects to get Jose Altuve back in the lineup for this game. Michael Brantley came back in the lineup yesterday. Alex Bregman was given the day off yesterday to be ready for this series against an AL West foe. The Astros have been very good against lefties in recent seasons. They haven't this year thus far, but they have a .221 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against lefties. That will regress toward the mean.

Houston has easily the best defense in baseball so far this year. There are multiple gold glove type guys on this defense. The Seattle defense is below average. 

Marco Gonzales is a subpar lefty and he's coming off the injury list for this start. I like the Astros to bounce back with a win.

Houston is 98-42 in their last 140 in game one of a series. They are 51-23 in their last 74 home games against a left handed starter.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. Detroit has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. This Tigers offense is struggling in a big way right now. 

Clayton Kershaw hasn't walked a batter so far this year. Kershaw has 23 strikeouts, and he carries an impressive 2.65 ERA with a fantastic 2.07 FIP. Kershaw is throwing a lot more sliders this year, and the results have been fantastic. 

The Dodgers offense is very good. There is no denying that fact. The Dodgers do rank 4th in wOBA against right handed pitching and 19th against lefties. They face a young lefty in Brieske here.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Every single year he ranks near the top or at the top in strikes called percentage as well as strikeouts/walks. He should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland ML* The Oakland Athletics have started the season out better than expected, but I still believe Oakland is a bad team. I think they could still finish with 70 wins or less for the season. When they are laying this kind of price, I'll be looking to go against them when I can.

Cleveland isn't a great team by any means, but the Guardians have a pretty decent bullpen backing up Aaron Civale here. Civale has been hit hard so far this year, but this will be the worst lineup he has faced yet this year and it isn't even close.

Frankie Montas has poor career numbers in the first month of the season. The Oakland bullpen is a problem, and this should be a close game throughout.

We are getting a pretty good plus money price going against a weak Oakland team. I have to take it.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs start Mark Leiter Jr. here. Leiter Jr. doesn't seem to have good enough stuff to be effective in the majors. He has struggled badly in the majors with his command every time he has been called up. Leiter has major problems with the long ball also- and that has been the case in quite a few of his years in the minors as well. He's the type of guy who can really give up big innings in a hurry.

Charlie Morton is nearing the end of his career. Morton has had a great last few years, but there are quite a few signs that he is slowing down. His 6.32 ERA and 5.49 FIP this year are a really bad start. He looked good against the Reds (everyone has), but he has been in trouble early and often in his other two starts.

Alfonso Marquez has some of the lowest called strike percentages of any umpire in the last few seasons. He is clearly an over umpire, and he is at it again this year with a ridiculously low strikeout/walk ratio of 1.79.

The Cubs are first in the majors in wOBA this year and the Braves are 10th. Two good offenses and a total that is set too low.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Under* Both Triston McKenzie and Patrick Sandoval have excellent stuff. They both have multiple strikeout pitches. They both have the same problem- they can struggle with walks sometimes.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this game. Miller is one of the two best under umpires in all of baseball. Year after year his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio show how he is a great strike caller.

Miller should help both of these youngsters by giving them the corners much more than the average umpire would.

The Guardians offense isn't as good as their season numbers would suggest. They are due for regression in batted ball luck.

The Angels do have several guys who are free swingers and McKenzie can take advantage of that.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Philadelphia Phillies have great numbers against left handed pitching so far this year, but they have a batting average on balls in play of a ridiculously high .371. The Phillies are good against lefties, but they aren't as good as they look so far this year. That .371 average on balls in play has to regress toward the mean. 

Eric Lauer is a middle of the road lefty, but he is backed by an elite bullpen in Milwaukee. The Brewers bullpen gives them a huge edge over the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen.

Aaron Nola is often overvalued by the betting markets. Nola has a great curveball, but he isn't consistent. Nola has a 5.52 ERA and a 5.83 FIP on the season this year.

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Phillies. I understand the Phillies lineup is better and Nola is a pretty good pitcher, but this price is too good to pass up. I'll take the big underdog here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Houston Astros still have a good lineup, but Carlos Correa was a pretty big loss. Jose Altuve is injured and out of the lineup now, and he is an even bigger loss. Houston has only scored more than 4 runs in one of their last ten games. Houston has scored 2 runs or less in six of their last nine games.

Toronto starts Alex Manoah in this one, and he is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Manoah's consistency really impresses me. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 games he has pitched six innings or more in.

George Springer is questionable for this game, but even if he doesn't play the middle of this Toronto order is loaded especially with Guerrero Jr. swinging the bat extremely well right now.

Jose Urquidy's worst month has been the first month of the season in his career. He has started the season slowly again this year. 

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have won the first two games of this series. The Cardinals are a quality team, but I believe the Marlins are underrated at this point. Most of the metrics point to the fact that they have been at least somewhat unlucky to have the record they do so far this year. Miami is a better team than they have been in recent years, and I still believe they will show that.

I would never make a bet solely based on this information, but there are some pretty good angles backing teams trying to avoid a three game sweep when they are at home.

Pablo Lopez pitching at home has been amazing throughout his career. Lopez has a 2.89 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP at home. He also has an ERA of more than a full run better in the first half of the season compared to the second half. 

The Cardinals are going with a bullpen game here. That should put pressure on their middle relievers. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox both have top five offenses in baseball. 

Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays and he has been very shaky this year. In his two starts he has an 11.81 ERA and an 11.86 FIP. Berrios has walked five batters in 5.1 innings and he has allowed 3 home runs. 

Nick Pivetta has a 3.91 ERA in day games in his career, but his night game ERA is an ugly 5.93. He has a WHIP of 1.492 in night games. Pivetta has a 5.49 ERA in 17 starts at Fenway Park. He has an ERA of 9.53 and a FIP of 8.53 through two games.

I think both starters have blowup potential here and with the total dropping to 9, I'm on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies lineup is a pretty good lineup, but they aren't exactly the mashing crew that they were a few years ago. The Chicago Cubs are the same way. These are middle of the road lineups with a posted total of 11 runs.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here. Kulpa had an extremely high 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year. He ranks top 8 in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last four seasons overall. He's a solid under umpire.

Austin Gomber has pitched in ten games at Coors Field in his career and he has a sparkling 2.03 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.956. That is likely to regress some, but he has done a great job in this hitter friendly park and seems to have somewhat of an edge.

The weather here calls for a slight breeze blowing in from left field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The gametime temperature for this one at Progressive Field in Cleveland is expected to be 36 degrees with a 10 mph wind blowing straight in from center field. Cleveland is a ballpark that is changed by the winds and weather more than most people realize. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here on Sunday.

Alex Wood is certainly an above average lefty. I don't think the Guardians lineup is very good in general, and I think they will be a little worse against left handed pitching.

Aaron Civale does a good job limiting hard contact, and that should help quite a bit especially in these conditions.

We have two bullpens who are clearly better than the average bullpen in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have an underrated pitching staff. Miami is likely to have quite a few low scoring games this year, especially at home in a park where it is at least somewhat pitcher friendly.

Philadelphia starts Ranger Suarez here, and though he had a disappointing first start to the season, there are a lot of very sharp pitching analysts who think he has a high upside. Suarez has multiple plus pitches and is capable of generating a lot of swings and misses.

Trevor Rogers is a very good young lefty for the Marlins. Rogers had a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 14.0% last year, and he also doesn't allow much hard contact. 

Jeremie Rehak is the umpire at home plate here and his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk numbers show from the last few years show him as a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers start Tarik Skubal in this one. Skubal is a strike thrower who has had problems giving up too many long balls in his first couple big league seasons. Skubal has tremendous stuff though, and his spring training 2.08 ERA is encouraging. 

Skubal has an amazing 21 strikeouts on just 81 at bats against this Royals lineup. Kansas City doesn't have a ton of power, and the wind will be blowing in from center field for this game.

Brad Keller starts for the Royals, and he was terrible last season. His second worst month of the season in his career is April. He is known for slow starts. 

Detroit is better than most people believe and I don't think they should be getting this plus money price with the starting pitcher with the much higher upside.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* I have the Toronto Blue Jays rated higher than the New York Yankees. Both teams are very good, and the AL East in general is loaded. Still, we are getting a plus money price on a good starting pitcher who is healthy. Kevin Gausman's slider is still tremendous and the Yankees offense has been inconsistent so far this year.

The Blue Jays have one of the best offenses in baseball. Toronto's young hitters are coming into their own, and this team has just continued to improve with the addition of Matt Chapman and Raimel Tapia. 

Luis Severino is a really talented starting pitcher, but he is coming off an injury and isn't likely to pitch too deep into the game. 

The Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games in New York. They are 7-1 in their last 8 as an underdog. 

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets start Max Scherzer here. Scherzer is past his prime, but he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. Scherzer had a 2.46 ERA and 2.97 FIP last year. How has he done against this Phillies lineup? He has dominated the guys who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Phillies hitters have a .144 batting average and a .205 wOBA against Scherzer.

Aaron Nola is a good pitcher, but he is clearly a level below Scherzer. Nola is capable of dominating, but he isn't nearly consistent enough. The Mets lineup has a solid .266 batting average and a .334 wOBA against Nola. 

The Phillies still have bullpen issues and Nola sometimes can't work deep into the game. Nola has had slow starts in his career. His first couple games ERA is noticeably worse than his overall ERA.

I'll grab the small plus price here.

Take the Mets. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies aren't a good team, but they aren't bad enough to be this big of an underdog against a bad Texas Rangers team starting Martin Perez here.

Martin Perez and Chad Kuhl are both poor starters at this stage of their careers. Perez as a huge favorite makes very little sense to me, even if it is against a subpar team.

The Rockies are much better against left handed pitching, and Perez doesn't have plus strikeout stuff by any means. Colorado should get plenty of scoring chances here.

Texas is an improved offense, but the Rangers are no better than mediocre on offense. They are still weak in the rotation and have a below average bullpen.

In a game that I believe is a coin flip, we are getting a big plus money price. I'll fade Texas here and back the Rockies.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tanner Houck starts for the Boston Red Sox here. Houck was excellent last year with an 11.35 strikeout per nine inning rate. He has made several mechanical tweaks and has really shown his real potential. Many in the Red Sox organization expect him to have a breakout year this year. He is a former first round draft pick. 

Jordan Montgomery is often underrated. Montgomery does a good job inducing soft contact and that can really help him against quality lineups like Boston. Montgomery has a career 3.72 ERA against Boston. 

The Yankees bullpen is a top 3 bullpen in baseball. The Red Sox bullpen is a top ten bullpen in baseball.

The conditions will be cold for this one and the ball shouldn't be carrying too well. 

Home plate umpire here is Tripp Gibson who is a top five under umpire in baseball. Both pitchers will be helped by his generous strike zone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* The New York Yankees are a good team, but I think this price is just too expensive. 

New York starts Luis Severino who is expected to be on a limited pitch count. Severino is good pitcher who is coming off a major injury. The team will want to be careful with him. The Yankees bullpen is very good, but it isn't terribly deep. They used their top guys heavily in yesterday's extra inning contest. 

Nick Pivetta is an inconsistent pitcher and there is always a chance that he gets shelled here, but he has been much better on the road than at home. Also, Pivetta's best month of the year in his career has been April- and it isn't close. He usually starts the season well.

In games 2 and 3 of the first series in the MLB season the underdogs have had great value in the last 15 years. In fact, dogs of +125 to +175 are actually 73-60 straight up for an ROI of 34% since 2006. This one fits.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Marlins start Pablo Lopez here and he is clearly an above average starter. Lopez has an ERA of 3.53 in the first half of the season compared to 4.97 in the second half of the season. 

The Giants are a good team, but they are banged up and this offense isn't what it was at the end of last season. There's no Buster Posey or Evan Longoria. 

Carlos Rodon is a really good pitcher, but this is a really big price to be laying against a Miami team that I think will be much improved this year. 

The Marlins have an above average bullpen and their lineup is young and will improve from a year ago.

In games 2 and 3 of the first series in the MLB season the underdogs have had great value in the last 15 years. In fact, dogs of +125 to +175 are actually 73-60 straight up for an ROI of 34% since 2006. This one fits.

Take Miami. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have what might be the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Baltimore traded away their one really solid bullpen arm in Cole Sulser recently. I expect Baltimore's bullpen to be terrible this year. 

John Means should be a #3 or #4 starter, but on the Orioles he is the ace. Means is a decent pitcher, but the Rays have hit him hard. Means had a 5.40 ERA in five starts against the Rays last year. The Rays current lineup has a great .377 wOBA against Means. Tampa Bay starts the season with Wander Franco in the lineup and I think they can do damage here.

Baltimore has some solid bats with Mountcastle, Mullins, Santander, and Mancini. The Orioles project as a team that will be much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Shane McClanahan is a pretty good pitcher, but he actually has worse numbers at home than on the road.

The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Tampa Bay.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland ML* The Cleveland Guardians (that's going to take me a long time to get used to) start the season out on the road at Kansas City. 

Zack Greinke comes home to Kansas City and starts the season opener for the Royals. Greinke isn't a bad pitcher now, but he is far from the pitcher he once was. Greinke is 38.5 years old and has had an ERA north of 4 in each of the last two seasons. 

Shane Bieber is a top three pitcher in baseball, and he starts for Cleveland here. Bieber goes against a Kansas City lineup that is no better than mediocre. There are a lot of free swingers in the Royals lineup.

Cleveland is 16-5 in their last 21 games in Kansas City. They have a huge pitching edge here and the price isn't very much to lay.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros have had the best offense in baseball all year. Houston's bats busted out of a slump in Game 5. They hit Max Fried hard earlier this series. I don't see any series to think they won't hit the ball well here. Fried has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts.

Luis Garcia has had a bad postseason. Garcia has a 7.62 ERA in the postseason thus far. Garcia is on an odd rest schedule. He's pitching on just 3 days rest instead of his normal, since he came out of the bullpen and threw 72 pitches on Friday night.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire here. The over is 46-31 in his last 77 games behind home plate. He has proven to be a hitter friendly umpire over the long term.

I think both offenses will create plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox start Nate Eovaldi here. While he has been a good pitcher for Boston, I'm not confident Eovaldi will be good in this game. Eovaldi threw 24 pitches in relief in game four and is off his normal schedule. Also, the Houston Astros lineup has torched Eovaldi in his career. This Astros lineup has a tremendous .389 weighted on base average against Eovaldi in 104 at bats.

Luis Garcia was hit hard earlier in this series by the Red Sox. The Boston offense has been absolutely on fire in the postseason. This team is hitting for power in a way that almost no team before them has in the postseason. 

Alan Porter is a hitter-friendly umpire and he'll be behind the plate here. These are arguably the two best offenses in baseball. Every game in this series has reached at least 9 runs. I think this one will as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dodgers and Giants square off on Thursday night in Game 5. The winner moves on and the loser goes home. The stakes couldn't be higher. 

All hands will be on deck for this game. There is no holding back your top pitchers. This is a must win in every way. 

Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers and Logan Webb starts for the Giants. Urias has a 2.61 career ERA against the Giants. His ERA is 2.92 at San Francisco. The Dodgers do have good depth pitching wise and they shouldn't be afraid to use that if Urias struggles. Webb has held the current Dodgers lineup to a very low .208 average and a .266 OBP in his career. He pitched brilliantly against them earlier in this series.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. There isn't a better under umpire in baseball than Eddings. He has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the last five years. The pitchers should get the benefit of the doubt from him here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Braves and Brewers start what should be an exciting series with this contest on Friday. 

Charlie Morton starts for the Braves in this one. Morton had a 3.34 ERA and a 3.17 FIP this season. Morton is one of those rare pitchers who has gotten better even as he gets into his late 30's. Morton  had a FIP of 1.17 or lower in his last 3 outings during the regular season. Morton's consistency has been impressive. He's allowed 3 runs or less in every outing since July 9 (the other he allowed 4 runs). 

Corbin Burnes has been extremely dominant all season. Burnes has a 2.43 ERA and a stunning 1.63 FIP this year. He had just 1.83 walks per nine innings and a whopping 12.61 strikeouts per nine innings. He has excellent stuff and can get a lot of swings and misses from every pitch.

The home plate umpire here is Mike Estabrook. He is a clear under umpire. In my umpire database, he has consistently been one of the best strike callers and he ranks high on the charts again this year. Both pitchers should get some extra strikes off the edges in this one.

The two lineups aren't elite by any means in their current state. Both of these teams have rested strong bullpens as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners have owned the Oakland Athletics this year. Seattle has won 10 straight contests against Oakland. 

Oakland has no realistic shot of making the playoffs now after last night's loss. Starling Marte is hurt and has missed the last two games. Marte has been a major offensive spark for the Athletics in the second half of the season. Elvis Andrus is out with an injury. 

Frankie Montas has been good this year, but he has been quite a bit better at home than on the road. 

Logan Gilbert is a highly touted prospect who has been good this season.

Montas has been hit hard by this Mariners lineup. In 75 at bats, the Mariners have a tremendous .388 wOBA against Montas. 

In a small sample size, Gilbert has pitched well against Oakland.

Seattle is right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race. They need every game badly now. Oakland realizes they aren't going to the playoffs at this point.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies have been excellent at home this year. In the home favorite role they are 24-9 in their last 33. They are also a whopping 81-34 in their last 115 as a home favorite.

Kyle Freeland is a solid left handed pitcher who has pitched well late in the season. Freeland has a 4.17 ERA and a 3.98 FIP in his last 11 starts. 

The Nationals are 11-28 in their last 39 road games. They are 9-19 in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.

Patrick Corbin has been bad this year. Corbin has a terrible record against the Rockies. In fact, the current Rockies have a tremendous .441 weighted on base average in 110 at bats against Corbin. Corbin has control issues and allows hard contact a lot. That's a bad combination for Coors Field.

This is a fair price to lay on the Rockies at home against a Washington team that simply isn't very good.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees are playing good baseball now. New York has been a streaky team this year, but they have a bullpen pitching well and an offense coming through with timely hits.

The Yankees have been much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. Boston is the opposite. The Red Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average against righties, but they are 8th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. 

Eduardo Rodriguez has really struggled against this Yankees lineup in his career. The current Yankees lineup has an impressive .374 wOBA against Rodriguez in 184 at bats. 

Jordan Montgomery has been really solid for the Yankees this year. He isn't overpowering, but he keeps them in the game and provides quality innings. The Red Sox lineup only has a mediocre .314 wOBA against him.

Take New York at this plus money price.

*3 Star Play on Reds -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds start Tyler Mahle here against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates start Mitch Keller.

The Reds offense broke out last night with Joey Votto hitting two home runs again and Nick Castellanos putting together some great at bats as well. The Reds are shorthanded, but they are still a good offense against right handed pitching. 

Keller is a subpar right handed pitcher. He has been hit hard by the Reds lineup in the past. This Reds lineup (without Jesse Winker) has a tremendous .445 wOBA against Keller. They have an OPS of 1.048. 

Tyler Mahle has drastic home road splits, but he is up against arguably the weakest offense in baseball here. Mahle is a top 25 or so pitcher in the National League. This is a game that means a bunch to the Reds who are still in the Wild Card race if they can get hot.

Take Cincinnati -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals are in the thick of the race for the NL Wildcard. This is a game that means a lot to both teams.

The San Diego Padres have picked a bad time to go into the worst offensive slump of the season for this team. The Padres have scored 1 run or less in 5 of their last 10 games. They scored only two last night. They now have to go up against Adam Wainwright, who has been throwing the ball really well. 

Wainwright has a sparkling 1.24 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has thrown a shutout in 4 of those 7 starts. 

Yu Darvish starts for the Padres. He had a terrible outing in his last start, but the Cardinals aren't very good against right handed pitching, and Darvish does have tremendous stuff.

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here at home plate, and that's a great thing for the under. Cuzzi has a very high strikes called percentage and in his career the under has hit in 55.1% of his games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's held off the Kansas City Royals 12-10 on Wednesday night. Kansas City has been tremendous offensively of late. How good? The Royals have scored six runs or more in 8 of their last 12 games overall. 

Oakland has put up 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 11 games, so the A's have been having offensive outbursts often in recent contests.

This is a mid afternoon contest where the high temperature will reach about 87 degrees. The wind will be blowing out toward left field at about 11 or 12 mph throughout this game. That's a great environment for run scoring.

Paul Blackburn and Daniel Lynch are both subpar pitchers at this point, and there should be plenty of people on base throughout this game.

The over is 18-6 in Nestor Ceja's 24 games behind home plate.

Take the over in this afternoon contest. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers offense has woken up a bit of late. They have scored 18 runs in their last three games, and some of the guys who weren't hitting the ball very well are showing signs of life. The Dodgers are healthier now than they were in the middle of the season offensively. 

The Diamondbacks offense isn't great, but having Ketel Marte back in the lineup has helped a lot. Marte is their best hitter, and he has been solid down the stretch. 

Tony Gonsolin isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game, and the Dodgers middle relief is questionable. Gonsolin is coming off an injury and only went 3 innings in his last start.

Luke Weaver starts for the DBacks and he is a below average righty. The Dodgers excel against right handed pitching.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. Wegner is one of the best over umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio of 2.14 for 2020 and 2021 is extremely low. He is a hitter-friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays send Jose Berrios to the mound on Thursday against the New York Yankees. Berrios is at his best when he has elite control. In his last three starts, Berrios has 0 walks and 24 strikeouts. The Yankees lineup has scored a total of 4 runs in the first three games of this series. The Yankees have topped 4 runs in a single game only 2 of their last 11 contests.

Nestor Cortes starts for the Yankees and he has been very solid this year. Cortes has a great 2.67 ERA and a solid 3.63 FIP. It hasn't been a fluke. He has been very good. The Blue Jays lineup is a tough test, but George Springer is questionable with an injury and he is great against left handed pitching. 

Doug Eddings is behind home plate, and there is no better under umpire than Eddings. His strikes called percentages and strikeout/walk ratios are consistently either the best in the majors or in the top five. 

The weather here calls for 70 degrees so the ball shouldn't carry as well as it does sometimes at Yankee Stadium.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Triston McKenzie has been a really highly touted starting pitcher for the Indians over the last few years. McKenzie struggled a bunch earlier this year. What was wrong? McKenzie wasn't trusting his stuff. He was nibbling on the corners too much and walking far too many batters. He was routinely walking 4 or 5 batters a game. That won't cut it in the majors. 

McKenzie has changed his approach in the last month and the results have been amazing. He has walked three batters in his last five starts combined. McKenzie has allowed just 5 hits in his last 21 innings pitched! It has been a spectacular run for McKenzie of late. The Twins don't have the strong offense we expected at the beginning of the season. They have had key injuries and traded away some top talent as well.

Joe Ryan starts for the Twins here. Ryan is a very high strikeout guy. He averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A this year. The Indians offense has been streaky all year, but they have been ice cold the last couple nights. 

The weather here is helpful with a relatively cool summer night in Cleveland and the winds blowing in at about 10 mph. 

Dan Merzel is the umpire here and his strikes called percentage is above 65%. His strikeout/walk ratio is above 3. He is an under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies have been much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. The Phillies are only 18th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. The Phillies are an impressive 8th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

While Eric Lauer's numbers for this year look decent, I'm not about to think he is a really good left handed starter. The Phillies lineup should get chances here.

Aaron Nola has disappointed down the stretch. Nola has good stuff, but he is inconsistent. Nola has a 5.57 ERA on the road this year. He just gave up 6 runs to the Nationals in his last start. The Phillies bullpen is still a clear weakness.

We have a low total here and two offenses who have been hitting the ball pretty well overall.

Jerry Meals is the umpire here and that's a clear plus for the over. The over is 18-7 in his 25 games behind home plate this year. Meals long term has a very low strikeout/walk ratio- so he has consistently been a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies are hard to ignore at a big plus money price at home. Colorado is a whopping 45-24 at Coors Field. The Giants are just 17-35 in their last 52 games at Coors Field.

Kevin Gausman has poor number against the Rockies. This lineup has an impressive .361 wOBA against him. He goes into Coors Field where the weather is very hot for this one.

Kyle Freeland has been pitching his best of late. Freeland has solid numbers late in the season in his career, and he has rounded into form again this year.

Colorado is a fiesty home underdog here. The Giants deserve to be favored, but I make this one much closer to a 50/50 win chance than the oddsmakers have set this. Grab the price.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers are fighting to the finish. Detroit has a winning record since the first month of the season. They are well managed and this is a team with multiple good young starters. Tarik Skubal is one of them. Skubal is a good lefty with great strikeout stuff. The Pirates rank last in the majors in offense against left handed pitching. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates start Bryse Wilson here. Wilson isn't terrible, but he is clearly a notch or two below Skubal in talent. The Tigers have hit the ball well of late. Detroit has scored 37 runs in their last five games. 

Pittsburgh is 16-36 in their last 52 games. They are 19-39 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 8-3 in their last 11 road games.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Milwaukee Brewers have Corbin Burnes on the hill here. Burnes has been special this year. He has a fantastic 2.27 ERA. Has he been lucky? No. In fact, he has been a bit unlucky. His xERA is 1.96 and his FIP is a spectacular 1.58 on the season. In Burnes' last 14 starts, if you had bet the Brewers -1.5 in each game you would be 10-4. 

Jon Lester starts for the Cardinals. Lester has been mediocre this year. The Brewers lineup has hit him well. They have a .375 OBP and a .355 wOBA against Lester. 

Burnes has been at his best in his career in the last month of the year, while Lester has actually pitched worse late in the regular season.

The Brewers have a clear bullpen advantage in this one once the starters are out as well. 

The Cardinals have hit left handed pitching much better than right handed pitching. Burnes is an elite righty. 

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* I'm going to make Jesus Luzardo prove it. Luzardo had been absolutely awful for a long period of time before spinning a gem in his last start against the Reds. Cincinnati has been struggling bad against lefties in general of late, and Luzardo has a really poor track record this year. For the year, Luzardo has a 7.19 ERA and a 5.92 FIP. He carried a 6.52 ERA in eight starts at Triple A this year as well. He is walking 4.61 batters per nine innings (way too high) and allowing 2.17 HR's per nine innings.

The Phillies are much better against lefties than right handed pitching. Philadelphia is 17th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against righties. They are 8th in wOBA against lefties. Luzardo is a below average lefty. 

Philadelphia comes into this game as winners of 6 games in a row. They are just 2 games back in the NL East and they are very much alive in the NL Wildcard race as well. Kyle Gibson has made 5 starts as a member of the Phillies and 4 of them have been very good starts. The one bad start was against the Dodgers. The Marlins offense is one of the weakest in baseball, and I think Gibson can pitch well here.

Lay the juice with the team with more to play for and with the much better pitcher.

Take Philadelphia. 

*4 Star Play Over* We have two teams who are much better against left handed pitching. The Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Phillies rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. The two teams are only 12th and 18th against right handers. Both will be up against a subpar left handed starter in this contest.

Patrick Corbin has a 7.26 ERA and a 6.39 FIP in his last 10 starts. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 8 of his last 10 starts. He has allowed a ridiculous 2.70 HR's per nine innings. Corbin's control has been poor and hitters are making him pay.

Matt Moore has a 6.12 ERA and a 5.70 FIP this year. Moore has an 8.02 ERA at home this year, so I don't even know if it is a good thing for him that this game is in Philly.

Neither bullpen is very good and both of these bullpens have been used heavily in recent days. Both of these starters have blowup potential so the bullpens might be needed for a long time.

I think both teams get a lot of baserunners and scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds have been playing good baseball lately. They laid an egg yesterday in a 6-1 loss to the Marlins, but they get a great shot to bounce back with a win on Sunday. 

Jesus Luzardo is fade material right now. Luzardo has been bad all year, but some thought he might look better in the National League. Luzardo had been bad even at Triple A in Oakland earlier in the year. Luzardo has now started five games for the Marlins. He has walked 17 batters in 22.1 innings. He has a 9.67 ERA and a 6.84 FIP in those five starts.

The Reds need to keep the Wild Card lead over the Padres. They have Tyler Mahle starting here. Mahle has been very good this year, and he has been at his best on the road. Mahle has a 1.84 ERA and a wOBA of .252 on the road this year.

A great opportunity for the Reds to get back in the win column against a starting pitcher who is struggling badly.

Take Cincinnati -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Logan Webb has been tremendous this season. He is pitching his best at the end of the season. Webb has a whopping 12 straight starts with 2 runs allowed or less. Webb has a 1.82 ERA in that time and a great 2.72 FIP as well. 

Huascar Ynoa has a 2.15 ERA at home this year. Ynoa is a highly rated prospect who has come in and thrown the ball well for the Braves right away this year. 

The Giants are without Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt right now. San Francisco ranks a mediocre 13th in wOBA on the road. The Braves are without Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna. They rank 12th in wOBA at home. 

A total this high with two solid starters and two shorthanded offenses. The two bullpens are both solid and pretty well rested also.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have taken advantage of weak opponents this year. Milwaukee is 40-12 in their last 52 games against a team with a losing record. They are also 40-19 in their last 59 road games. 

The Minnesota Twins have played slightly better of late, but this is a Twins team that is far better against right handed pitching than lefties. They are a top ten team in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 19th in wOBA against left handed pitching this year. Minnesota is 11-28 in their last 39 games vs. a left handed starter.

Eric Lauer and Andrew Albers are both subpar lefties. The Brewers have the much better bullpen and Josh Hader should be ready to go for this one after not pitching yesterday. 

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are a mediocre team. The Cardinals lineup has really disappointed in the last couple months against left handed pitching. While they sit just behind Detroit in wOBA against left handed pitching for the year, they are a bottom 8 team in the majors in wOBA in the last two months against lefties. 

Tarik Skubal is a really highly touted prospect. He's a guy who dominated in the minors and he has a bright future ahead of him. Skubal has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in his last three starts overall. He's throwing the ball very well coming into this game. He hasn't walked more than one batter in a game since June. This Cardinals lineup enters this game very cold.

Jon Lester starts for the Cardinals. Lester has a 5.46 ERA and a 5.40 FIP on the season. He has walked 9 batters in his last 20 innings. He has also allowed 4 runs or more in three of his last four starts despite not finishing six innings in any of those starts. 

The Tigers are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a left handed starter. Detroit has played well after a lousy first month of the season. This team continues to fight hard and they have been a great bet as an underdog this year.

I see this as a total coin flip game, and we are getting a big plus money price. Take the price.

Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Top Total of the Month* Jesus Luzardo has been absolutely awful this year. He has been even worse of late. Luzardo certainly has talent and there is always a chance he puts it together at any point, but his form is terrible now. Luzardo has a 7.76 ERA and a 6.23 FIP on the year. He had a 6.52 ERA in Triple A in 8 starts. Luzardo has walked 13 batters in his last 12 innings pitched. He is allowing 2.26 homers per nine innings on the year. A terrible combination. 

Washington ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Nationals are up against a struggling lefty in Luzardo here and they should fare well. 

Erick Fedde has a 4.60 ERA in the first half of the season in his career. His second half ERA? 6.14 in his career. Not good at all. 

Both of these bullpens have struggled of late, and there should be plenty of base runners on the paths throughout this game. Luzardo's four starts with the Marlins have seen a whopping 64 runs scored in total. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Rockies and the Diamondbacks are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The Rockies are 3rd in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Diamondbacks are 9th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. How do this teams do against right handed pitching? The Rockies are 17th in the majors in wOBA against righties. The DBacks are 27th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Jon Gray is a rare starter who actually has pitched better at home at Coors Field than he has away from Coors Field. Gray is in good form coming into this game. The DBacks have a batting average on balls in play of a whopping .355 (very lucky) in the past 13 games, but they have scored 3 runs or less in 7 of those 13 contests.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire based on his strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently year over year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. They are 15th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Sean Manaea has been up and down this year, but he is an above average lefty who has pitched pretty well at home in his career. 

Kevin Gausman has been really good for the Giants this year. Gausman has a 2.40 ERA and a 2.91 FIP on the season. The Oakland A's offense is middle of the road and this is still a pretty good pitcher's park.

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire behind home plate here, and that is a clear positive for the under. According to my umpire database, this is a guy who has consistently ranked in top 10 in strikes called- and he is a top six or under umpire in the majors.

In the past month these two teams are 2nd and 4th in bullpen ERA. I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers have Walker Buehler on the mound here. He has allowed 4 runs in his last 33 and 1/3 innings pitched. Buehler has consistently been very good late in the season. He is in great form again late this season. He goes up against a Mets lineup that is without Lindor and Baez right now.

Carlos Carrasco comes into this game in terrible form. The Dodgers just scored six runs off him in just 2 innings pitched in New York in his last start. Carrasco has allowed 10 runs in just 3 innings in his last two starts. This is a guy that isn't fooling anyone of late.

Don't look now but the Dodgers are 11-1 in their last 12 games. Yes the Dodgers are somewhat banged up too, but this is a good lineup still and they have an elite starter on the hill here. These two teams are headed in different directions.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Padres have definitely gotten desperate for some pitching help. They decided to sign Jake Arrieta to a contract. How has Arrieta pitched this year? He has a 6.88 ERA and a 6.12 FIP. In his last three starts with the Cubs, Arrieta allowed 27 hits and 14 runs in just 12 innings pitched. Arrieta isn't good at all, and the Rockies can mash at home.

Chi Chi Gonzalez makes  the start for the Rockies. Gonzalez is a fade pitcher for me to start with, and he is coming off the COVID list and is still trying to recover. He will be on a pitch count and then things will be handed over to the terrible Rockies bullpen. 

The temperature is expected to be 95 degrees at game time here. The ball really flies well at Coors in this kind of weather. Day games at Coors in hot weather have been great to over bettors in the last several years.

David Rackley is the home plate umpire. The over is 125-94 in his career games behind the plate.

I never go into a handicap wanting to bet over 14 since it is such a high number, but this one is justified.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants have been very good offensively of late, but they have had at least some good fortune. San Francisco has a batting average on balls in play of .353 in the last seven days. The Mets have a BABIP of .322 as well so they have been fortunate on offense also (and even then they haven't scored consistently). 

Marcus Stroman has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.45 FIP on the season. Stroman has a much better ERA and FIP late in the season in his career, and he has been pitching well of late. 

Logan Webb has been fantastic at home this year. Webb has a 1.58 ERA in 40 innings pitched at home. Webb has thrown 10 straight starts where he has allowed 2 runs or less. Needless to say, Webb has been tremendous for San Francisco.

The Giants rank in the top five in bullpen ERA in the past month. The Mets are in the middle of the pack. This is still a pitcher's park and Rehak (home plate umpire) is a good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The LA Angels are without both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. The Angels have been outmatched in each of the first two games in this series and I think they'll be outmatched again in the final game of this series.

Lance McCullers Jr. has racked up 8 strikeouts or more in six of his last seven games. McCullers is having arguably the best season of his career so far this year. He goes up against an Angels offense that is severely shorthanded. The Astros have bettered their bullpen since the trade deadline as well.

Houston is the best offense in the majors. They have been even better against left handed pitching of late. The Angels start Reid Detmers, a rookie left hander. Detmers has struggled badly in his first two starts. He has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings pitched. Detmers has a lot of trouble keeping the ball in the park. He allowed 1.67 HR's per nine innings in Double A this year, and he is giving up a lot of hard contact in the majors.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jon Lester isn't good at all anymore. Lester has a 1.62 WHIP and a 5.57 ERA on the year. His FIP sits at 5.50 on the season. He is allowing a lot of hard contact, and he is averaging only 5.99 strikeouts per nine innings. That's a really bad combination. 

Brad Keller has a 5.79 ERA and an xERA of 6.64. Keller just allowed 5 runs in 5 innings against the Cardinals in his last start. He has walked four batters or more in four of his last eight starts. 

The Cardinals offense has woken up a bit of late. They are slowly getting healthier. 

The Royals offense has been better at home this year, and they are better against lefties. Both of these teams have questionable bullpens that have been used pretty heavily of late.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Chicago Cubs traded away nearly all of their key hitters and their closer at the deadline. Willson Contreras is the biggest name hitter left on this team and he is injured. Nico Hoerner and Jason Heyward are also injured right now.

Alzolay pitched well earlier in the year, but he has been really bad of late. Alzolay has a 5.90 ERA and a 6.21 FIP in his last ten starts. The Cubs are 1-9 in his last 10 starts. They have been favored in five of those games.

Jesus Luzardo has a high upside but has been inconsistent. He faces a much weakened Cubs lineup here. The Cubs have a bottom 3 offense in all of baseball in their current state. 

The Marlins bullpen has been a top ten bullpen in baseball this year. The Cubs have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball in the past month. 

The Cubs have won one game so far in the month of August. They haven't even been competitive of late. They are coming off a 10-0 and 17-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Teams off blowout losses have been good fades in the second half of the MLB season over the long run.

Take Miami here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have been a top five offense this year against left handed pitching. They will face Detroit lefty Tarik Skubal in this one. Skubal has allowed a ton of hard contact this year. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in barrel rate. He has allowed a whopping 45.8% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit. Baltimore should scoring chances here. 

Detroit will go up against Matt Harvey. He has been all over the place this year. He has had some absolutely awful games, and he has had some pretty solid games. We know by his advanced metrics he isn't good. He's pitching in a very hitter friendly park here too. His numbers at home this year are much worse than on the road.

Orioles pitching has allowed a whopping 54 runs in their last 5 games! They have allowed 9 runs or more in each of those contests. Both of these bullpens have been struggling a lot of late.

Warm weather in the upper 80's with the wind blowing out about 10 mph helps here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Baltimore Orioles have been able to hit left handed pitching well this year, but they have been awful against right handed pitching. Casey Mize is a pretty good young right handed starter for the Tigers. He had success against Baltimore a few games ago, and I think he can have success again here. 

The Detroit Tigers started the year poorly against lefties, but they have been crushing lefties of late. Detroit had the worst wOBA against lefties in the first month, but they have been a top 12 team against lefties in the last two months. Keegan Akin has an ERA of nearly 8 and he has really struggled in the starter role. 

Detroit is 6-1 in their last 7 games following an off day. The Tigers have been an above .500 team since May. Baltimore has gotten worse and worse as the season has gone on. The Orioles are 13-38 in their last 51 against a right handed starter. They are 23-56 in their last 79 games. 

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Giants ML* The San Francisco bats came alive last night. After a predictable loss on Friday in a bad spot, the Giants hung in game 2 Saturday and put up 7 runs in extra innings for a win. We like that momentum heading into Sunday. San Francisco will start Johnny Cueto (3.83 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over 98.2 innings). Cueto has struggled somewhat over the summer but generally he has solid command. His xERA and FIP marks in the 4.50 area demonstrate his mid-tier caliber.

The Brewers will send out Brett Anderson (3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 68.2 innings). Anderson has been exceptional in his last 5 starts of the summer, averaging a 1.40 ERA over the last 20 innings. Still, nothing in his profile or from our eye test tells us that Anderson is that much better than Cueto (especially considering Anderson's 6.09 xERA). Meanwhile, I'm confident the Giants own the better offense. Rated in the top 5 in most major offensive categories this season (wOBA, slugging %, homeruns, etc.) and top 10 in offense the past 2 weeks, I'm inclined to believe that San Francisco's bats will continue to experience positive regression after their performance last night. With no real advantage on either side on the mound, the Giants are the better team and we get them at a reduced price. The Giants are 20-8 in their last 28 during game 3 of a series.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play on the Giants/Brewers under 8* Two teams predicated on superb pitching enter game two of this contentious series between two NL elites. The Brewers took game 1, limiting the away-team Giants to only 1 run behind an exceptional 7 innings from Corbin Burnes. Now Milwaukee will send out their other ace in Brandon Woodruff ((2.26 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 131.1 innings). Woodruff needs little introduction. The 28 year old still boasts the best WHIP in baseball and owns an impressive 0.69 HR/9 innings rate, an 80.2% LOB rate, and xERA/FIP/xFIP marks all under 3.00. He's experienced a little regression in June and July but overall his command remains intact and he's terrific at preventing big slugs, something teams like San Francisco thrive off of (over the last 30 days the Giants are slugging .446 over and they're 2nd overall with 39 home-runs).

Making a start in place of Anthony DeScalfani, Aaron Sanchez (2.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 33.1 innings) will take the mound for the Giants Saturday. Recently off the IL, Sanchez looked crisp in his first start Tuesday against Arizona, throwing for 3 scoreless innings and only permitting 1 hit. One bad game against the Rockies at Coors Field back in May has inflated some of his numbers but Sanchez has looked really good overall. His short season has displayed his ability, like Woodruff, to limit power-hitting lineups and keep runners on base. Both the Giants and Brewers have experienced an offensive explosion the last few weeks but lately they're bats have cooled off. The under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

I expect another pitcher's duel tonight-- take the under. 

*3 Star Play on the Yankees -1.5* The Yankees are finally starting to look like the dangerous and talent-heavy playoff team they're built to be. Winners of 6 of their last 7 games (5 of which were by 2 runs or more), New York is finally starting to gain some traction as they look to overtake the AL East. The Seattle Mariners come into today's matchup still in the postseason race but the reality is rather grim. They're last in MLB in batting average and their rotation is weak. Now they find themselves in the Bronx against a surging Yankees squad. To make matters more challenging, they'll start Tyler Anderson (4.39 ERA, 4.28 FIP, over 108.2 innings). The journeyman who started the 2021 season with Pittsburgh faces a more nerve-racking role in Seattle with a team still in contention. A road game against a rallying NYY team won't make that any easier. I don't like Anderson's pedestrian velocity or his awful HR allowance (2.07 HR/9 innings) against a power-hitting Yankees lineup. Nestor Cortes (1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over 32.2 innings) gets his second start today for NYY. He looked really good in his first start against Tampa, allowing only 1 run and 3 hits in 5 innings. Previously a reliever, Cortes has the skill and dynamism to have real success as part of the NYY rotation. Both teams are suffering from some injuries but it hasn't seemed to bother the Yankees, especially with new additions Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo holding up their bats. New York is 6-1 in their last 7 home games.

Take the Yankees -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on the Marlins +1.5 (-125)* This is another good spot for Miami and unfortunately another bad one for the Mets, who are quickly losing their grip on the NL East. Carlos Carrasco had a solid 4 innings with New York in his first showing on the mound last week, but the 34 year old is likely still working through the kinks of his game and should be on a pitch count.

Meanwhile, Miami is starting Zach Thompson (2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over 38.2 innings), who has been sensational in his short season. Thompson has also shown excellent command, limiting big slugs (0.70 HR/9 innings) and maintaining an LOB rate over 75%. With his dynamic ability to strikeout batters, his numbers show he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball since his debut. Miami is at home and the Mets can’t seem to solve their puzzle, losing 4 straight to the team from South Beach.

Take the Marlins to keep this close. Take Miami +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Mariners/Rays over 9* The Mariners' pitching and defense is an issue. Allowing 30 runs over their last 5 games and ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories (69.7% LOB rate, 42.5% GB rate, 4.54 ERA), it's hard to like their chances against anyone right now. Seattle's Chris Flexen (3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 108.2 innings) certainly doesn't have the worst numbers. He's a solid pitcher who can often guide his team to wins and his 9-5 record on the season proves as much. But when Flexen struggles he really struggles, and those challenges often come when he's pitching on the road. Flexen held the Angels to only 1 run over 6 innings in his last away start at LAA, but in 4 previous away starts he permitted 33 hits and 18 runs in just 18.3 innings.

Michael Wacha (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 71.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa, who's far from their best arm, although the month of July served him better. He held onto a 3.60 ERA over 20 innings, allowing more than 3 runs in only one of those contests. Still, Wacha's profile isn't very promising-- his sinking LOB rate, lack of command in preventing home runs (1.77/9 innings), and his 5.67 xERA indicate his disappointing first year with the Rays. They also have me wondering if he's due for some negative regression.

Both offenses are at an advantage today. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Luis Castillo started the season pitching terribly, but he has righted the ship in a big way of late. Castillo has a 1.71 ERA and a 2.93 FIP since the start of June. 

He faces a Cubs lineup without Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo today. The Cubs are in a state of flux. There are certainly going to be some deals made to get rid of some Cubs players very soon. That is never a great situation to be in.

Joey Votto is absolutely raking of late. He has 7 home runs in the last five games. The Reds offense overall is hitting it well with Jesse Winker and Kyle Farmer swinging it very well also.

Cincinnati upgraded their bullpen a lot this week and that was their single biggest weakness. They now have a better bullpen than the Cubs.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres host the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday afternoon. Blake Snell starts for San Diego while Sean Manaea is on the hill for the A's. It's a battle of lefties and that is important for totals bettors here.

San Diego ranks 9th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. They rank 17th in the majors against left handed pitching. Oakland ranks 14th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The A's rank 21st in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Both Snell and Manaea are quality lefties. These two can have some trouble with walks at times, but with Ryan Blakney as the home plate umpire that is a positive. He is one of the better under umpires in baseball. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio is excellent for under bettors. 

These get away day games often have a key batter or two missing from the lineup for a day off. Both of these bullpens are very high quality as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) over the last 30 days. Washington ranks first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitchers. They are up against Matt Moore who is clearly a subpar left handed pitcher. Moore has a 5.79 ERA and a 5.68 FIP this year. He has had a 5.52 ERA or higher in his last three seasons in the majors. Not good. 

Erick Fedde starts for Washington and his ERA is 8.71 in his last five starts. His FIP during that time is 5.96 as well. He is struggling with control in that time (5.23 walks per nine innings). The Phillies have a solid lineup and they have been better at home offensively.

A game time temperature of 88 degrees with light winds blowing out at about 6 mph is another plus. 

Both bullpens have been a mess for much of the season. There should be plenty of base runners throughout this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have won the first two games of this series. I understand that can make some bettors cautious about wagering on them in game three when they are playing another good team. In this case though, I'm going to lay the price with Milwaukee.

The Chicago White Sox aren't even close to full strength right now. The White Sox are at .500 on the season on the road, and they are without many key guys in the lineup. The bullpen is shorthanded right now as well, and in the last month this bullpen has actually been a bottom six unit in the majors. 

The Milwaukee Brewers start Brandon Woodruff here. Woodruff has been underrated for too long now. Woodruff is so consistently very good. Woodruff has a 2.04 ERA and a 2.68 xERA. His FIP is 2.70. Woodruff is only allowing 25.3% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit. 

Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox. He's certainly a very good starter too. He isn't quite on Woodruff's level though. Lynn has a 1.94 ERA, but his FIP is 3.28. Lynn has a 100% left on base percentage in 6 of his last 9 games. That is definitely fortunate and it will be hard to keep that up.

The Brewers strong back of the bullpen is well rested.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The San Francisco Giants have been tremendous this year when it comes to bouncing back from losses. The Giants were upset by the Pirates in game one of this series. Pittsburgh has been terrible on the road this year. The Pirates were actually swept by Arizona in the series before this, and they were beaten by a score of 21-12 in that series.

The Giants start Kevin Gausman here. Gausman has allowed more than 2 runs in only two starts this year. Gausman's splitter has been as nasty as ever. He has held this Pirates lineup to a very low .274 wOBA in his career. 

Will Crowe has a FIP of 6 or higher in 6 of his last 9 starts. He hasn't completed 6 innings in any of his last 10 starts. The Pirates bullpen has been worn out of late. 

The Giants are 38-14 in their last 52 as a home favorite. The Pirates are 22-63 in their last 85 road games.

Take San Francisco -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have won 7 straight games. The oddsmakers haven't quite caught on to their improvement fully just yet. Detroit has a lot of good young players who are really coming into their own. 

Detroit struggled badly with left handed pitching in the first month of the season, but they rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties since that time. Detroit was excellent against lefties last year, and it is once again looking like a strength of this lineup. 

Kris Bubic is a lefty who has been crushed in 3 of his last 4 outings. Bubic is walking nearly 5 batters per nine innings, and that hurts a lot against big league hitters. He also has a 5.03 ERA and a 5.85 FIP. His xERA is 5.86 as well. If anything, Bubic has been lucky this year.

Wily Peralta is no great pitcher by any means, but he does have a solid 3.58 xERA on the season. The Royals lineup isn't very good against right handed pitching.

The Royals are 15-36 in their last 51 vs. a right handed starter. The Royals are 10-29 in their last 39 games overall. I have to fade a favorite like Kansas City against a team playing well.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have won 6 games in a row. More importantly to me though, this Detroit team is 37-27 since May 8. This isn't a total fluke that Detroit is getting better. The Tigers have some young talent that is coming of age. This is a team that is still playing very hard as well. 

Texas is going the opposite direction and quickly. The Rangers are winless in their games since the All Star Break. They have lost by a combined score of 47-5 in their games since the break. That's hard to believe, but it is true. Texas ranks dead last in wOBA in the past two weeks and this team is just a mess right now.

Mike Foltynewicz comes into this game in terrible form. Foltynewicz allowed 10 runs in 1 and 2/3 innings in his last start. He has a 5.91 ERA and a 6.14 FIP on the season.

Tyler Alexander has a decent 4.40 ERA and a 4.36 FIP this year. The Tigers bullpen has been much better in recent weeks as well.

Texas is a ridiculous 16-55 in their last 71 road games. They are 17-43 in their last 60 games overall. The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers started the season slowly, but they have played at above .500 since after their first month. This is a young team that does have a bright future. Detroit is playing like a team that really wants to win right now.

I can't say the same about the Texas Rangers. Texas has been outscored by 40 runs since the All Star Break. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games overall. Texas is 16-54 in their last 70 road games. The Rangers are a mess right now. Texas is about to deal a couple of their better players as well.

The Rangers send Jordan Lyles to the mound and he has been really bad all year. Lyles has allowed a really high 42.2% hard hit rate. Detroit is 11th in the majors in wOBA since the first month of the season. The Tigers offense has actually been pretty good of late. The Rangers are 30th in wOBA since the first month of the season.

Teams headed in totally different directions.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles rank 26th in the majors in wOBA on the road this year. The Tampa Bay Rays rank 20th in wOBA at home this year.

Brian O'Nora is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently been a very solid under umpire. He has above average strikes called and strikeout/walk percentages. 

John Means returns for the Orioles here. Tampa Bay has a bottom five offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Means is clearly an above average left handed pitcher. Tampa Bay has multiple injuries in their lineup right now as well.

Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays. The Orioles crushed left handed pitching earlier this year, but they have cooled off dramatically against lefties in the past month. Tampa Bay has a strong bullpen with good depth behind McClanhan as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Minnesota Twins are a mess. Minnesota has a ton of injuries and the Twins have been arguably the biggest disappointment in all of baseball this year. 

Detroit started the season very slowly, but quietly the Tigers have a record over .500 if you exclude the first month of the season. The Tigers crushed left handed pitching last year. They started slow against lefties this year, but they have been hitting lefties hard in the last couple months.

J.A. Happ has an ERA of 8.00 in his last 11 starts. Happ is allowing a whopping 2.5 home runs per nine innings in that time. In 7 of those 11 starts he has allowed 4 runs or more. In 8 of those 11 starts he has gone 5 innings or less. Happ has been really bad of late.

Wily Peralta is far from a great starter, but he has a nice 2.08 ERA and a 3.44 xERA in 26 innings this year. 

The Twins are 17-27 on the road this year. Minnesota is 1-7 in their last 8 road games. The Tigers are 23-22 at home on the season.

I'll grab the plus money price.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) at home. They have a .283 wOBA at home this year. They are up against Patrick Sandoval here. 

Sandoval struggled quite a bit early on in the majors, but he was a highly touted prospect and he has pitched much better of late. Sandoval has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 16.8% so far this year. 

Chris Flexen has been great at home this year. Flexen starts for the Mariners here. Flexen has a 1.99 ERA in 54 and 1/3 innings at home this year. He has a ridiculous .240 wOBA allowed. This is a pitcher's park and Flexen has taken advantage. While the Angels usually have a good offense, they are without both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon right now.

Kerwin Danley has been a good under umpire through the years and this is a fairly high total for a game in Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds rank as a top five offense against right handed pitching. They also rank as a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. They are up against a lefty in Eric Lauer here.

Wade Miley starts for the Reds, and he has been solid this year. Miley has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.24 FIP on the season. He has a tremendous .244 wOBA allowed on the road this season. The Brewers offenses is middle of the road against lefties.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire in the majors in the past five years. Eddings has an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He is a clear positive for under bettors.

The under is 34-16-2 in the Brewers last 52 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. an NL Central foe.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox have been consistently very good this year. Chicago ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA in the past 14 days. The White Sox are noted as being excellent against lefties, but they have been hitting everyone lately. Chicago also has a strong bullpen.

Baltimore does hit left handers much better than right handers. That is the primary reason why this line is relatively cheap on the White Sox. Still, Baltimore has been terrible in the past couple months after starting the season playing fairly competitively. The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games overall. Baltimore is 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. 

The White Sox are 40-14 in their last 54 as a favorite. Dallas Keuchel isn't the star he was in the past, but he is still a bit better pitcher than Jorge Lopez. The Orioles bullpen has bottom ten numbers in the majors in the past 60 days after starting the season well. This is too low of a price on the White Sox.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jordan Montgomery starts for the Yankees here. Montgomery has been good at home throughout his career. Montgomery has a 3.36 ERA and a 0.278 wOBA when pitching at home. In his career on the road, he has a 5.10 ERA and a 0.331 wOBA allowed. The Seattle offense isn't particularly good, but they have improved quite a bit in the past month. 

The Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this season. There are too many solid hitters in this lineup for them to struggle all season long. They have shown signs of improved in the last few games. Logan Gilbert starts for Seattle in this one. Gilbert has a 5.63 ERA at home so far this season. 

Both starting pitchers are capable of giving up a fairly big number here. I see two offenses improving, and with this low total, I like the chances for this to go over the total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pablo Lopez is a good pitcher, but I don't think he is quite as good as his numbers look so far this year. Lopez has major splits from the beginning of the season to the end of the season in his career. He is strong in the first two or three months of the year, and then he really falls off a lot from July through the end of the year. In fact, his ERA is over 6 in his career in July. 

Lopez is up against a Dodgers lineup that has been hitting the ball well. They are averaging 6 runs per game in their last five games. The Dodgers sat out Bellinger, Muncy, and Betts last night. That means we should get the best guys in the lineup on Tuesday night. 

Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers here. While he has been pretty good, he doesn't pitch very deep into games and the Dodgers middle relief is their biggest weakness. Miami does have some power in the middle of the order and they should get some chances here.

Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire here. Torres has one of the five lowest strikes called percentages in the majors in the past two years. His strikeout/walk ratio also shows he is a tough umpire for the pitchers. He has a small strike zone.

This number is awfully low for a hot Dodgers offense being involved.

Take the over.