Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-20-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* It would be hard to find a match up of pitchers who have struggled more this season than these two. Nick Blackburn has an ERA over 8 this season. He simply hasn't been able to get anyone out. Kansas City's offense has improved of late, and the hot temperatures help the ball carry here. Luke Hochevar has an ERA over 6 at home this year. He is an extremely inconsistent pitcher. He'll be facing a Twins lineup that is healthy and hitting well right now. The over is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 as a home favorite. The over is 4-1 in Blackburn's last 5 starts. Take the over.
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07-20-12 | Seattle Mariners v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Seattle Mariners are an interesting team in that they can't seem to hit the ball at all at home, but they hit extremely well on the road. James Shields was excellent last year, but he has struggled in 2012. He has allowed at least ten hits in each of his last three starts. He has an ERA over six during that three game period. Tampa Bay's offense is slowly heating up. A healthy Matt Joyce helps in the middle of the order. I believe this total is set like it should have been last year when Shields was dominating. Both of these pitchers have been struggling recently. Take the over.
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07-19-12 | Baltimore Orioles -105 v. Minnesota Twins | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Baltimore Orioles haven't gotten much respect all year. Wei-Yin Chen has been solid all season long. Cole De Vries was never very good in the minors. He had a couple nice starts in the majors, but I'm not a believer in him yet. He was rocked in his last outing, and I think the Orioles could get to him quite a bit here as well. The Orioles have one of the best bullpens in the majors, while the Twins may well have the worst bullpen in baseball. I think the oddsmakers are giving us a good value on Baltimore. Take the Orioles.
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07-19-12 | New York Mets v. Washington Nationals -129 | 9-5 | Loss | -129 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Washington Nationals are playing terrific baseball right now. Gio Gonzalez and R.A. Dickey lead the majors with 12 wins each. It's a great pitching duel here. Gonzalez has been great at home this year. Dickey has been terrific, but his last two starts have been very shaky. Knuckleballers are notoriously streaky, which makes him tough to back right now. In addition, Dickey has an ERA about one whole run higher during day games in his career. The Mets average only 4.03 runs per game against lefties. The Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 road games. The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record. They are also 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts on 4 days rest. Take the Nationals.
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07-19-12 | SF GIANTS v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Giants and Braves played 11 innings Wednesday. There was also a rain delay before the game. The game didn't end until well after midnight. Now, they must come back and play again less than 12 hours later. This situation is a good one for the under since I expect several regulars to rest here. In addition, the Braves have struggled against lefties all year and Madison Bumgarner is a very good one. Tim Hudson was hit hard in his last outing, but I think he bounces back here. We get a solid under umpire here in DJ Reyburn. Look for this to be a low scoring affair. Take the under.
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07-18-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 | 10-6 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Tampa Bay Rays' offense isn't the same without Evan Longoria. Tampa Bay has been an 'under' machine at home the past couple years. The under is 97-47-6 in the Rays' last 150 home games. Jeremy Hellickson has been great at home his entire time in the majors. He has an impressive 3.12 ERA at home this season. Justin Masterson was lit up in his last start against the Rays, but I expect him to bounce back in this one. Dan Iassogna is the home-plate umpire here. He has a wide strike zone and I believe both pitchers will take advantage of that in this one. Take the under.
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07-18-12 | LA Anaheim: C Wilson -101 v. Detroit: D Fister | 2-7 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Los Angeles Angels have been playing as well as anyone after a slow start to the season. C.J. Wilson is one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the majors. Wilson has allowed more than 3 earned runs only once this year. The Tigers have struggled against lefties all season, and Wilson is one of the league's best lefties. The Angels' offense is a completely different animal with Mike Trout leading off and Albert Pujols hitting the ball like most expected he would. The Angels are 7-0 in Wilson's last 7 starts as a road favorite. The Tigers are 0-6 in Fister's last 6 starts following a quality start. Fister has been inconsistent all season. Take the Angels.
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07-18-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates -118 v. Colorado Rockies | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to defy the odds this season. The oddsmakers are still lining this team as if they are a below .500 team even though they are just one game back of the Reds in the NL Central. James McDonald has been one of the best under the radar starters all year. McDonald has a 9-3 record and a 2.59 ERA. Colorado starts Jeremy Guthrie, who has been horrible at Coors Field. Guthrie has a 9.23 ERA in 39 innings at home this season. The Rockies are 35-55 and have little to play for right now. The Pirates are 5-0 in McDonald's last 5 as a favorite. The Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 Wednesday games. Take the Pirates.
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07-17-12 | St.Louis Cardinals -105 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Play of the Day* John Axford blew last night's game for the Milwaukee Brewers, which also cost me my wager on the Brewers ML. Tuesday, I believe the value is on the St. Louis Cardinals. Joe Kelly is a talented young starter who has the stuff to shut opposing offenses down. Kelly's one issue is walks, but Brian Gorman (home plate umpire) has a big strike zone and that should help. Kelly hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his major league starts thus far. Randy Wolf has never been a dominant pitcher, and he is nearing the end of his career at this point. Wolf doesn't have the velocity to put hitters away, and he has been getting smashed around of late. Wolf has a 9.01 ERA in his last three starts. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games at Milwaukee. The Brewers are 1-6 in Wolf's last 7 home starts against a team with a winning record. Take the Cardinals.
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07-17-12 | LA Anaheim: G Richards v. Detroit: J Turner OVER 10 | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The times have changed quickly for the Los Angeles Angels offense. Earlier this year the offense was a major disappointment, but now they are one of the hottest in the majors. Mike Trout is an amazing spark for this team at the leadoff spot. Jacob Turner is just 21 years old, and he has struggled in the majors so far in his career. The Angels lineup will likely make things tough on him tonight. Garrett Richards has an 8.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. Richards has a 5.79 ERA on the road this year. Detroit's lineup is a tough one to navigate through too. The over is 11-2 in the Angels last 13 road games. Take the over.
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07-17-12 | Toronto: B Cecil v. New York (A): C Sabathia -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Jose Bautista was put on the disabled list earlier today. Bautista is the rock in the middle of the order for the Blue Jays, and without him I think this lineup will struggle. C.C. Sabathia hits his stride this time of the year. Sabathia could easily dominate this free swinging Jays lineup. Brett Cecil isn't pitching well at all right now. Cecil has a 6.75 ERA this year. He has a WHIP of 1.77 in his last three starts. The Yankees lineup is one of the best in baseball, and I expect them to hit him hard in this one. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 at New York. The Jays are also 0-7 in Cecil's last 7 against the AL East. This should get ugly. Take the Yankees -1.5.
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07-16-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates +113 v. Colorado Rockies | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a completely different team than they have been in past years. Andrew McCutchen is baseball's best hitter right now, and he is absolutely carrying this offense on his back. Because McCutchen is so hot, the players around him are getting better pitches to hit. Jeff Francis starts for Colorado here. Francis has had an ERA around 5 in his previous years in the majors, and no team even signed him to start the year. I think he is due for regression. Colorado is 20 games under .500 and they have nothing to play for. I think the Pirates are undervalued here. Take Pittsburgh.
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07-16-12 | St.Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers -110 | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals were swept out of Cincinnati late last night on Sunday Night Baseball. The Cardinals are scuffling right now. St. Louis still has a very good offense, but their pitching staff isn't what it needs to be. Lance Lynn has great numbers for the season, but he has been blasted in 3 of his last 4 starts. Michael Fiers is a rookie with a deceptive delivery that is really working. Fiers has allowed 2 runs or less in four straight starts. The Brewers aren't the home team they were last year, but getting them at such a short price here is a nice value. The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. The Brewers are 70-34 in their last 104 as a home favorite. Take Milwaukee.
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07-16-12 | Cleveland Indians +124 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 3-2 | Win | 124 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Cleveland Indians are right in the thick of the AL Central race. Cleveland has a solid lineup from top to bottom. Tampa Bay is hurting in a big way right now. They don't have Evan Longoria or Matt Joyce in the middle of the order. Tampa Bay's offense really lacks a punch right now. Zach McAllister has been pretty good for the Indians. They are 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Alex Cobb has struggled for Tampa Bay this year. Interestingly, the Rays are 0-4 in Cobb's last 4 starts as a favorite. Overall, Tampa Bay is 2-9 in their last 11 games as a favorite. Take the underdog here.
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07-15-12 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Stephen Strasburg had a couple of slightly subpar starts right before the break, but he is absolutely an elite pitcher in the majors. Ricky Nolasco is one of the most streaky pitchers in all of baseball, and he is red hot of late. Nolasco has a 0.92 ERA in his last 3 starts. Strasburg has a 2.82 ERA for the season overall. Both of these offenses are missing key players right now. The under is 5-0-1 in the Marlins last 6. The under is 5-0 in the Nationals last 5. The under is 6-1 in Nolasco's last 7 starts against the Nationals. The under is 4-1 in Strasburg's last 5 starts against the Marlins. Take the under.
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07-15-12 | LA Anaheim: J Weaver +102 v. New York (A): I Nova | 10-8 | Win | 102 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Los Angeles Angels have been one of the best teams in baseball since Mike Trout was called up. The Angels have dropped the first two games in this series, but they'll have the pitching advantage on Sunday. Jered Weaver is 10-1 with a 1.96 ERA this year. He has been the best pitcher in baseball so far this year. Ivan Nova has 10 wins for the Yankees this year, but his ERA is almost 4. I don't expect him to get as much run support when the Yankees lineup faces a guy like Weaver. The Angels are 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 starts against the Yankees. The Angels are 9-0 in their last 9 when the opposition scores at least 5 runs in the previous game. Look for the Angels to bounce back with Weaver on the mound. Take the Angels.
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07-15-12 | Cleveland: D Lowe v. Toronto: Villanueva OVER 9.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Derek Lowe has allowed far too many base runners all year. Lowe has a terrible WHIP of 1.58 on the season. Toronto's offense is clicking right now with Lawrie at the leadoff spot. The Rogers Center has been great for overs, especially during the daytime this year. Carlos Villanueva isn't a dominating pitcher, and the Indians offense is as healthy as they have been all year. The first game of this series was a 1-0 final. The second game of the series was an 11-9 Blue Jays win. Look for this finale to be like yesterday's high scoring contest. Take the over.
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07-14-12 | San Diego: E Volquez v. Los Angeles: A Harang UNDER 7 | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres have the worst offense in the NL. The Dodgers have Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier back now, but this still isn't a great lineup. Edison Volquez has been absolutely dealing of late. He has a 0.92 ERA in his last 3 starts. Aaron Harang has been solid this year for the Dodgers, especially at home. Harang has a nice 2.80 ERA at home this year. Greg Gibson is the umpire here, and the under is 49-24-6 in his last 79 games behind the dish. The under is 4-1 in the Padres last 5. The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers last 7. Take the under.
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07-14-12 | Boston Red Sox +145 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Boston Red Sox hit left-handed pitching extremely well. Boston is 7-0 in their last 7 games against lefties. David Price is a very good lefty, but the Red Sox have had some success against him in the past. Clay Buchholz has looked like a whole new pitcher in his last few outings. Tampa Bay's offense is severely short-handed without Longoria or Joyce. The Red Sox lineup got a major boost when Ellsbury came back on Friday night. I see no reason for Boston to be dogged by this much. I really like the value on this one. Take Boston.
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07-14-12 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals played late into the night last night. Both teams used up the bullpens in the 14 inning marathon game. This tends to lead to higher scoring games the following day since fewer bullpen pitchers are well-rested and ready for this one. Luke Hochevar has a 6.57 ERA at home this year, and he is coming off an injury. Jake Peavy has been great this year, but he has been slightly more hittable of late. Tim Tschida is one of the best over umps in the business. With a hot temperature and wind blowing out, the conditions are great. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams. Take the over.
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07-14-12 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Both of these pitchers are on their game right now. Gio Gonzalez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far this year. He is 12-3 with a 2.92 ERA in 2012. Mark Buehrle has a 0.83 ERA in his last 3 games. Buehrle has been dealing at home this season. Both of these offenses have been struggling of late, and both are without a couple key players. These pitchers are good at minimizing big innings, and that should be enough to keep this under the total. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the under here.
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07-14-12 | LA Anaheim: J Williams v. New York (A): F Garcia OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* The Los Angeles Angels offense started the year slowly, but they are crushing the ball of late. Mike Trout has made a massive difference for this lineup. The Yankees have had one of the best offenses all season. This pitching matchup of Jerome Williams and Freddy Garcia led me to look at the over in this one to start with. Neither guy has overpowering stuff at all. Paul Schrieber is the home plate umpire here, and he is a great over umpire. His tiny strike zone should hurt both of these pitchers. The over is 9-1 in the Angels last 10 road games. The over is 4-1 in the Yankees last 5. Take the over big!
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07-13-12 | Houston: W Rodriguez v. San Francisco: Bumgarner -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 107 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Madison Bumgarner has been brilliant this year. Bumgarner is coming off his worst outing of the year. He allowed 7 earned runs against Washington last time out. I feel like this is a perfect bounce back spot for him. The Astros may have the worst lineup in the NL right now. Bumgarner has a 1.88 ERA at home. The Giants offense is better than most realize right now. Jordan Lyles has been dreadful on the road. The Astros are 0-13 in his last 13 road starts. Lyles has a 6.67 ERA on the road this year. The Astros are 18-63 in their last 81 road games. This one should get ugly. Take the Giants -1.5.
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07-13-12 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 9 | 9-8 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals both struggle against left-handed pitchers. Bruce Chen has an ERA over 7 on the road, but he has a solid 3.21 ERA at home this year. The White Sox have a poor history against Chen. Jose Quintana has been great since coming to the majors earlier this year. Quintana has only allowed more than 2 earned runs once, and that was against the Yankees. The under is 6-1 in Quintana's last 7 starts. The under is 5-1 in the White Sox last 6 road games against a lefty. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under.
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07-13-12 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* I really like the pitching matchup here. Josh Johnson didn't start the season very well, but he has rounded into form very nicely of late. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the more underrated pitchers in all of baseball right now. Both of these guys have been hurt by poor run production by their team's offense when they are pitching. Both of these offenses are short-handed right now, and I don't think these teams can put up too many against such a good opposing pitcher. The under is 3-1-1 in Johnson's last 5 home starts. The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Take the under.
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07-08-12 | New York (A): I Nova +112 v. Boston: J Lester | 7-3 | Win | 112 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Yankees/Red Sox Winner* The Boston Red Sox salvaged the second game of the double header yesterday, but the Red Sox aren't playing good baseball at all right now. New York has jumped on Boston pitching in the first inning of each of the first three games in this series. Jon Lester has an ERA above 5.5 at home this season. The Yankees hit left-handed pitching very well. The Yankees are 8-1 in Ivan Nova's last nine Sunday starts. They are also 19-5 in his last 24 road starts. New York is 5-1 in their last 6 at Boston. Take the Yankees.
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07-08-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been dreadful of late. The Dodgers have scored more than 4 runs just once in the past two weeks. Trevor Bauer is a highly ranked pitching prospect, and I think he can tame this very weak Dodgers lineup. Chris Capuano has been pitching extremely well all year. Capuano has a 2.68 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks offense isn't nearly as explosive when Chase Field has the roof closed. The roof is set to be closed for this one. The under is 5-0 in Capuano's last 5 starts. The under is 19-7 in the DBacks last 26 Sunday games. Take the under.
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07-08-12 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 11 | 11-9 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Total Error* I really don't understand how the oddsmakers came up with this number. Brett Cecil is an inconsistent lefty, but the White Sox are hitting just .234 against lefties this year. Axelrod is a good looking young pitcher for the White Sox. The weather is expected to be more moderate as far as the temperature here. I expected a total of 9.5 or so, so seeing 11 really shocked me. D.J. Reyburn is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the better under umpires in the league. The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4. The under is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 road games against a righty. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
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07-08-12 | Colorado Rockies v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Jeremy Guthrie starts for the Rockies in this one. Guthrie has been absolutely awful so far this year. He has an ERA over 6 on the season. Guthrie really shouldn't have a spot in the rotation at this point, but the Rockies just don't have another option. Jordan Zimmerman is an extremely consistent pitcher for the Washington Nationals. Zimmerman has an ERA under 3 on the season. Colorado is 8-22 in their last 30 games. The Rockies' normally strong offense has been struggling of late. The Nationals have a huge pitching advantage. This one should get ugly. Take Washington -1.5.
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07-08-12 | Chicago Cubs v. New York Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* Ryan Dempster hasn't allowed a run in his last 3 starts. Dempster was on the disabled list with a minor injury, but I don't expect his pitching form to be any different in this one. The Cubs' offense has struggled all season, especially with left handed pitchers. Jon Niese is a solid lefty who pitches well at home. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this matchup. Eddings has consistently been the best under umpire in baseball in the last several years. The under is 6-0-1 in Dempster's last 7 against the NL East. The under is 36-13-3 in Eddings last 52 Sunday games. Take the under big.
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07-07-12 | Cincinnati: H Bailey -105 v. San Diego: C Richard | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* The San Diego Padres have been playing much better of late, but this still is not a good baseball team. The Reds have had a little trouble on the West Coast, but they are a far more complete team than the Padres. Homer Bailey has an ERA under 3 on the road this year. Bailey has pitched well against the Padres in his career. Clayton Richard has been pretty good this season, but the Reds hit left-handers well. The Reds are 5-0 in Bailey's last 5 road starts. They are also in 4-0 in Bailey's last 4 starts against San Diego. The Padres are 0-4 in Richards last 4 Saturday starts. Take the Reds.
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07-07-12 | Atlanta Braves -102 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The Philadelphia Phillies are in a major tailspin right now. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are back in the lineup, but that isn't going to fix this team's problems right away. Tommy Hanson has been a better pitcher on the road than at home. Hanson has been great in his career against the Phillies. Joe Blanton is no better than a mediocre pitcher, and the Braves have hit him well in the past. The Braves are 9-0 in Hanson's last 9 starts as an underdog. The Phillies are 0-4 in Blanton's last 4 against the National League East. The Braves are the more complete team. Take Atlanta.
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07-07-12 | Toronto Blue Jays +130 v. Chicago White Sox | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* It seems a little strange to be wagering on Ricky Romero at this point, but he is clearly a better pitcher than he has shown of late. The Blue Jays are 22-8 in Romero's last 30 starts. Gavin Floyd has an ERA of almost 5 at home this year. The White Sox are a strange case in that they have a much better road record than home record. I wouldn't be surprised to see these two teams finish with nearly identical records at the end of the season. Toronto is 5-0 in Romero's last 5 starts against the White Sox. The White Sox are 0-4 in Floyd's last 4 against the Blue Jays. Take Toronto.
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07-07-12 | San Francisco: Vogelsong v. Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 104 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Ryan Vogelsong has been my favorite under pitcher this year. The oddsmakers continue to underrate Vogelsong. He was snubbed from the All-Star team, and I think that gives him extra motivation to pitch well in this one. James McDonald has been consistently good for the Pirates this season. Neither of these teams hit the ball very well, and with two highly underrated pitchers going, I see a lot of value on the under. The under is 14-3 in Vogelsong's last 17 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
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07-07-12 | Colorado: J Francis v. Washington: G Gonzalez OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Most of the nation is red hot right now with record temperatures. Washington D.C. is right in the middle of the heat. Game time temperature is expected to be 104 degrees in this one with the wind blowing out about 10 miles per hour. The weather here should help the ball fly extremely well Saturday afternoon. Jeff Francis was unsigned at the beginning of the season, and I think he is very hittable. Gio Gonzalez has been very good this year, but he has been a little shaky in his last two outings. Both offenses are hitting the ball extremely well right now. The total here is set at just 8.5, so I like the value on the over.
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07-06-12 | Seattle: K Millwood v. Oakland: T Milone UNDER 7 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Oakland Athletics have the worst team batting average in the majors at a miserable .225. Kevin Millwood has a solid 3.19 ERA on the road this year. Seattle's offense isn't much better. The Mariners have the second worst batting average in baseball at .229. Tom Milone has been absolutely amazing at home this year. Milone is 5-1 with a 0.99 ERA at home in 2012. In his last 3 starts, Milone has a 0.86 ERA. Milone shut out the Mariners two weeks ago in Seattle. The under is 6-0 in Milone's last 6 starts against the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 home games. The under is 7-0 in the A's last 7 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 5-0 in the Mariners last 5 against a team with a losing record. Expect a very low scoring game. Take the under.
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07-06-12 | Minnesota: F Liriano v. Texas: M Perez OVER 10 | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Minnesota Twins offense has really come to life of late. Minnesota is averaging 5.02 runs per game against lefties. The Twins pounded out 15 hits and managed only 3 runs Thursday. Expect them to cash in more times in this one (it isn't often you see a team have 3 runners thrown out at home in one game as the Twins did Thursday). Texas has punished left-handers for the past couple years. Francisco Liriano isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and I think that will be extremely evident in Arlington Friday night. The heat and the tough lineup he will face should be too much. Look for both teams to score quite a few here. Take the over.
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07-06-12 | Atlanta: T Hudson -124 v. Philadelphia: K Kendrick | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a heart breaking loss in New York last night. Ryan Howard is expected to return here, but I'm not sure he'll be in top form just yet. Tim Hudson may not be the dominant pitcher he used to be, but he is still a pretty good pitcher. Hudson is 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA this year, and he is 3-1 with a 2.34 ERA on the road. Kyle Kendrick is an extremely inconsistent pitcher. Kendrick is 2-8 with a 5.35 ERA this year. The Braves are 5-1 in Hudson's last 6 road starts. The Phillies are 5-11 in their last 16 home games. Take Atlanta.
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07-05-12 | Baltimore: J Arrieta v. LA Anaheim: G Richards OVER 8.5 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Los Angeles Angels offense has woken up in a big way over the last few weeks. Mike Trout may be the best leadoff man in baseball already, and he makes a huge difference for this offense. Albert Pujols is hitting like everyone expected him to, and Mark Trumbo is having a breakout season. Jake Arrieta has been blown up on multiple occasions already this year. Arrieta has a 5.81 ERA on the season. Garrett Richards has been good this year, but his 1.50 WHIP tells me he is playing with fire. The Orioles have a pretty good offense, and this total is set low. The over is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 against the AL East. The over is 8-1-1 in the Angels last 10. The over is 8-1 in the Orioles last 9 vs. the AL West. Take the over.
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07-05-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The St. Louis Cardinals have the best offense in the National League. Freidrich may end up being a good pitcher, but it seems he isn't quite ready just yet. He has a 1.59 WHIP and I think the Cardinals will take advantage of their scoring chances here. Lance Lynn was great earlier this year, but he has a brutal 9.98 ERA in his last 3 starts. Lynn was pitching over his head earlier this year, and the Rockies offense is pretty good. The weather (97 degrees and a slight wind out to center) should help quite a bit. Look for a high scoring game here. Take the over.
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07-05-12 | Minnesota Twins +140 v. Detroit Tigers | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins are playing very good baseball right now. Justin Verlander shut them down yesterday, but he shuts down everyone. The Twins had won five in a row before that game. The offense is clicking right now, and the team is finally healthy. Scott Diamond is a very good young pitcher for the Twins. The Twins are 8-3 in his last 11 starts, including 5-1 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. The Tigers continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers. This team just doesn't have good chemistry, and Rick Porcello is no better than mediocre at this stage in his career. The value is too much to pass up here. Take the Twins.
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07-04-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jeremy Guthrie has been terrible as a starter this year. Guthrie has an ERA of 13.50 in his last three starts. The Cardinals have the best offense in the National League. Adam Wainwright has a 5.40 ERA at home this year, and he seems to be struggling to recover from his elbow surgery last year. The Rockies have an offense that is fully capable of piling up the runs in bunches. The weather here will be very favorable to the over. A game time temperature of 100 degrees with low humidity should be great for the ball to be flying well. The over is 8-1 in the Rockies last 9 against the NL Central. The over is 5-1-1 in Guthrie's last 7 starts. Take the over.
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07-04-12 | Miami Marlins -125 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Josh Johnson is rounding into form of late. Johnson started the season struggling, but he has been great in his last ten games. In his past ten starts, Johnson hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a single game. The Marlins lost a tough game yesterday against the Brewers, but they have the major pitching advantage in this one. Randy Wolf has been inconsistent all year. Wolf has a 5.78 ERA and a terrible 1.59 WHIP this year. The Marlins offense should be able to make him pay for allowing so many base runners. The Marlins are 8-3 in Johnson's last 11 starts. Take Miami.
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07-04-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. New York Mets +117 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Cliff Lee's winless season so far has gotten plenty of publicity, but the oddsmakers continue to give him tons of credit. Lee should certainly have several wins, but he has actually pitched quite poorly of late. Lee has a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts. The Mets continue to surprise, and I still don't think the oddsmakers are giving them enough credit this season. Chris Young has a solid 3.3 ERA this season. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 road games. The Phillies are 0-5 in Lee's last 5 starts. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing record. Take the Mets.
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07-03-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is on fire right now. With Jon Jay back in the lineup and a healthy Matt Holiday smashing the ball, the Cardinals are piling up the runs on a consistent basis. In 5 of their last 10 games, the Cardinals have scored at least 8 runs. Jeff Francis is a guy I like to fade or play the over with. He has been bad in the past, and no team even wanted him at the beginning of the year. The Cardinals score more than 5 runs per game against lefties. On the other side, the Rockies can put up the runs as well. Joe Kelly doesn't go deep into the game, and Colorado should be able to get to him some. The over is 8-0 in the Rockies last 8 against the NL Central. The over is 7-0-1 in the Cardinals last 7 with a total set at 9-10.5. Take the over.
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07-03-12 | New York Yankees -109 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 4-7 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
*5 Star MLB Moneyline Top Play* The New York Yankees are playing as well as anyone in baseball right now. The Yankees have a great combination of a terrific offense and a great defense. The Yankees have committed just 36 errors all year. Tampa Bay has committed 66 errors already this year. Ivan Nova is a streaky pitcher, and he has been great of late. He has allowed just 5 earned runs in his last 5 games. The Rays offense has been brutal of late and they are very short-handed right now. James Shields has a 1.40 WHIP this year, and I think the Yankees will get to him. The Yankees are 12-0 in Nova's last 12 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 7-0 in their last 7 against a right-handed pitcher. The Yankees are 6-0 in Nova's last 6 starts against Tampa Bay. Take the Yankees big!
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07-03-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Washington Nationals -121 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals have cooled off a bit of late, but I do think this team has staying power. The Nationals pitching staff has the best ERA in baseball, and this team knows how to win close games. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the more underrated pitchers in the majors right now. Zimmerman hasn't received much run support, but he has a 2.77 ERA on the year. Tim Lincecum pitched a great game last time out, but that was against the lowly Dodgers offense. It is going to take more than one outing against a bad offense for me to be convinced he is completely back. The Giants are 2-9 in his last 11 road starts. Take Washington here.
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07-02-12 | Boston: Matsuzaka v. Oakland: J Parker +100 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* Jarrod Parker is one of the best young pitchers in Major League baseball. Parker has been brilliant at home this year, and the Red Sox lineup is beat up right now. Dice-K has looked decent in his first few starts for the Red Sox this year, but he continues to have trouble getting past the 5th inning. Boston's bullpen is terrible, and him leaving the game early hurts the team's chances. Oakland isn't a terrific team, but they are scrappy and tough to beat at home. The Athletics are 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are only 4-10 in their last 14 games at Oakland. I like the young pitcher to beat the big name pitcher here. Take Oakland.
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07-02-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 3-9 | Win | 108 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* Josh Outman starts in this one for the Rockies. Outman has an ERA well above 9 this season. St. Louis bats .271 against left-handed pitchers, and I expect them to get to Outman early in this matchup. Not only is Outman a poor starting pitcher right now, but he also doesn't go deep in the game at all. The Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in all of baseball. Kyle Lohse has an ERA below 3 this year, and while I expect the Rockies to score some here, it is hard to see them keeping up with the Cardinals. This looks like a mismatch all over the board. Look for St. Louis to jump on the Rockies here. Take the Cardinals -1.5.
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07-02-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Josh Outman starts in this one for the Rockies. Outman has an ERA well above 9 this season. St. Louis bats .271 against left-handed pitchers, and I expect them to get to Outman early in this matchup. Not only is Outman a poor starting pitcher right now, but he also doesn't go deep in the game at all. The Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in all of baseball. Colorado was shut out yesterday, but this is a team that generally scores quite a few runs, especially against left-handed pitchers. Kyle Lohse has been great this year, but he has struggled a bit in his last few starts. The over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5. The over is 4-0 in Outman's last 4 starts. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games with a total set at 9-10.5 runs. Take the over.
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07-02-12 | Miami Marlins v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* It's no secret that the Milwaukee Brewers have been nearly unbeatable with Zack Greinke on the mound at home. Greinke is undefeated in the past year and a half at home. The team is an amazing 22-1 in his last 23 home starts. Greinke has a sparkling 1.08 ERA at home this year. Carlos Zambrano started the season well, but he has been very shaky of late. Zambrano is a streaky pitcher who is dangerous to back when he is pitching poorly. The Brewers aren't the team many expected they'd be, but I still expect them to finish the season with a solid record at home. The Marlins are 1-10 in their last 11 meetings with the Brewers. Take the Brewers -1.5.
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07-02-12 | Kansas City: E Teaford v. Toronto: R Romero OVER 9.5 | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Total Error* Ricky Romero was terrific last season, but he hasn't been himself this year. Romero has a 4.94 ERA in 2012. Fortunately for him, the Blue Jays have been piling up runs when he is on the mound. He has managed to go 8-2 despite his poor ERA. Everett Teaford has only pitched 60 innings in his big league career, and most of those have been out of the bullpen. Both teams hit left handers pretty well. The over is 6-0 in Romero's last 6 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 games. I believe the oddsmakers have given us a solid value in this one. Take the over.
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07-01-12 | Oakland: T Blackley v. Texas: Y Darvish -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
3 Star MLB Major Mismatch- The Texas Rangers have the best offense in all of baseball. This is a lineup that has punished left handers the last couple years. Travis Blackley doesn't have great stuff, and I suspect he'll be in for a long night. Darvish has the stuff to shut down the Athletics weak offense. It's a mismatch here. Take Texas -1.5.
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06-30-12 | New York Mets -124 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash- The Los Angeles Dodgers offense badly misses Matt Kemp. When Andre Ethier went down this week it really crushed this already short handed offense. Johan Santana hasn't been great of late, but he should be able to slow down this Dodgers offense. The Mets are still being underrated by the oddsmakers. Take the Mets.
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06-29-12 | New York (N): R Dickey -134 v. Los Angeles: A Harang | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Moneyline Top Play* R.A. Dickey allowed no earned runs in 5 straight games before the Yankees got to him in his last start. The knuckle-baller should find more success against a very weak Dodgers lineup in this one. Without Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, the Dodgers offense simply isn't very good. The Mets have surprised quite a few people this year, and their offense is respectable. Many of the Mets hitters have terrific career stats against Aaron Harang. The Dodgers started the season red hot, but they are in the middle of a major tailspin right now. The Dodgers are 0-7 in their last 7 when scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record. The Mets are 4-0 in Dickey's last 4 starts as a favorite. Take the Mets big!
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06-29-12 | Detroit Tigers -111 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 2-4 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Ace Showdown* It would be tough to find a better pitching matchup than Verlander vs. Price. Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball right now. His win/loss record isn't as impressive as last year, but his ERA is almost exactly the same. Price has been pretty good this year, but he has benefited from strong offensive support from the Rays. Without Matt Joyce and Evan Longoria in the lineup, the Rays simply don't have much pop in the middle of the order. Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder are all hitting the ball extremely well right now. The Tigers have the much better lineup. Take Detroit.
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06-29-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins -105 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Cliff Lee hasn't won a game this year. While Lee has a solid 3.7 ERA for the season, he has been shaky in his last 3 starts. The Phillies don't give him run support, and they have to deal with Josh Johnson in this contest. Johnson started the season slowly, but he is regaining his old form. Johnson hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 9 starts. Both of these teams are playing very bad baseball right now, but I like Johnson's recent form more than Lee's. The Marlins are 36-15 in Johnson's last 51 home starts. The Phillies are 0-4 in Lee's last 4 starts. I like the value on the Marlins in this one.
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06-29-12 | LA Anaheim: E Santana -114 v. Toronto: Villanueva | 5-7 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* The Los Angeles Angels started the season off poorly, but they are playing great baseball of late. Albert Pujols went 4-4 last night, and he has been as hot as anyone in baseball over the last few weeks. Mike Trout is a sensational rookie center fielder for the Angels. Trout leads the team in batting average and stolen bases, and he has become a real spark for the lineup. Carlos Villanueva hasn't started a game all year, and in his career he has never proven to be an effective starting pitcher. Angels are 12-1 in their last 13 as a road favorite. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in Villanueva's last 5 as an underdog. Take the Angels.
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06-28-12 | New York Mets +119 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3-2 | Win | 119 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers held their own for quite a while without Matt Kemp, but the offense has been mierd in a major slump of late. The news got even worse yesterday for the Dodgers' offense. Andre Ethier left yesterday's game with an injury, and is listed as doubtful for this contest. Without Kemp or Ethier, the Dodgers lineup is extremely weak. Chris Young and Chris Capuano are both decent pitchers, but the Mets have the clear lineup advantage in this game. The Dodgers are reeling right now and I see lots of value right now on the Mets. The Dodgers are 0-6 in their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Mets are 4-1 in Young's last 5 road starts. Take the Mets.
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06-27-12 | San Diego: C Richard v. Houston: L Harrell -115 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The San Diego Padres is probably the worst team in Major League baseball right now. San Diego is just 11-24 on the road this season. While the Astros aren't a particularly good team they are 22-18 at home this year. Clayton Richard has pitched well of late for the Padres, but he struggles on the road. Richard has a 4.8 ERA away from home. Lucas Harrell has an ERA under 2.5 at home this year. The Astros are 11-2 in their last 13 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Padres are 2-6 in Richards last 8 road starts. Take Houston.
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06-27-12 | Los Angeles: Billingsly v. San Francisco: T Lincecum OVER 7 | 0-3 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Tim Lincecum has been an 'over' machine this year. The over is 8-2 in his last 10 starts. The oddsmakers continue to throw out low lines on his games despite the fact that he has an ERA above 6 this season. Chad Billingsley has an ERA above 5 in his last 3 starts. This ballpark is definitely a pitcher's park, but the ball does fly pretty well in day games. The over is 6-0 in Billingsley's last 6 starts following a loss by the team the night before. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 when facing a starter with a WHIP over 1.3. Take the over.
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06-27-12 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB TKO* Jarrod Parker is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Parker has completely shut down several teams already this year. The Seattle offense is one of the weakest in the American League, and I suspect Parker will pitch well against them. Kevin Millwood has been a bit inconsistent this year, but he has fared well against poor offenses. Oakland's team batting average is just 2.24 which is the worst mark in the majors. Two solid pitchers against two poor offenses makes me like the value of the under. Take the under.
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06-26-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* It's very rare for me to play a total this low, but I like this one so much I made it a rare 5 Star Top Play. Ryan Vogelsong has been money in the bank for 'under' bettors over the last couple years. The under is 29-10 in his last 39 starts. Clayton Kershaw has absolutely shut down the Giants in his young career. Both offenses struggle to score, and this has all the makings of a very low scoring game. The under is 20-3 in Vogelsong's last 23 home games. The under is 10-1 in Kershaw's last 11 Tuesday starts. The under is 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 against the Giants. Take the under big.
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06-26-12 | Oakland: T Blackley v. Seattle: J Vargas -119 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* Justin Vargas is a much better pitcher at home. Last year he really broke out at home, and he has been pretty good at Safeco again this year. Oakland's lineup is even weaker than the Mariners lineup. Travis Blackley had a great start last time out, but I think he's shown in the past that he isn't a legitimate major league pitcher in the long run. Vargas is the much more talented lefty here. The value on the home team is too much for me to pass up here. Take the Mariners.
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06-26-12 | San Diego: K Wells v. Houston: J Lyles -134 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Kip Wells will make the start in this one for the San Diego Padres. It says a lot about the Padres rotation that they had to sign Wells, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009. Wells wasn't any good in the majors then, and I don't expect him to have any luck now either. Jordan Lyles is far from dominating, but he has been better over his last few outings. The Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Padres have the worst team in baseball right now, and they are starting Kip Wells. Take Houston.
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06-26-12 | Detroit: D Smyly v. Texas: Y Darvish -1.5 | 5-7 | Win | 115 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Yu Darvish is now the Texas Rangers ace. He has proven he has absolutely dominating stuff. The Detroit Tigers offense is pretty free-swinging and that will hurt them against a guy like Darvish. Drew Smyly has been good this year, but the Rangers feast on left-handers. Smyly is still recovering from a severe blister and he might not be himself here. The Rangers are 6-0 in Darvish's last 6 home starts. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 at Texas. This one should get ugly. Take Texas -1.5.
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06-26-12 | LA Anaheim: C Wilson v. Baltimore: B Matusz UNDER 8.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* C.J. Wilson has been terrific this year for the Angels. His consistency on the mound has really helped this team make the push they have over the last month or so. Wilson has a great 2.13 ERA on the road this season. Brian Matusz is a talented lefty for the Orioles who doesn't quite have it all together just yet. He has all the pitches, but he sometimes struggles with command. The under is still 11-1 in his last 12 starts. The under is 5-0 in Wilson's last 5 road starts. Take the under.
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06-25-12 | Washington Nationals -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies | 2-4 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* This is a classic pitching mismatch. Stephen Strasburg is one of the most dominant young pitchers in baseball. Jeff Francis wasn't even signed by a major league team at the beginning of the season. Francis never had dominating stuff, and he has gotten worse with age. The Nationals don't have a strong lineup, but I still think they can score several runs against Francis as Coors Field. The Rockies have a solid offense, but without Tulowitzki, they are less imposing. The Nationals ave the best pitching staff in baseball. The Rockies have the worst pitching staff in baseball. The pitching mismatch is too much to overlook. Take Washington -1.5.
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06-25-12 | Chicago White Sox -117 v. Minnesota Twins | 1-4 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Jake Peavy has been a major cash cow on the road this year. Peavy is 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA on the road so far in 2012. The White Sox have been one of the best road teams in the majors all year. Francisco Liriano used to be a dominant pitcher, but he isn't anymore. He has looked better of late, but it hasn't been against good lineups. I believe Peavy gives the White Sox a large edge in pitching here. The Twins have the worst record in the American League. Minnesota took 2 of 3 from Cincinnati, but inconsistency has been a major problem for the Twins this year. The White Sox are 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 starts as a road favorite. Take Chicago.
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06-25-12 | St.Louis Cardinals -106 v. Miami Marlins | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The Miami Marlins broke out of a slump yesterday. For the first time in 25 games, they scored more than 5 runs. The Marlins offense should improve as the season goes along, but I don't think one game will solve all their issues. St. Louis has had the best offense in the National League all year. With Jon Jay and Matt Holiday both healthy, the Cardinals have a tough line up to deal with. Ricky Nolasco hasn't been very good this year, and I think he'll struggle against the Cardinals deep lineup. The Cardinals are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a scoring output of 5 runs or more. Take the Cardinals.
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06-24-12 | New York Yankees v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Sunday Night Total Domination* R.A. Dickey has five straight outings where he hasn't allowed an earned run. It's pretty amazing how awesome of a run he is on right now. Dickey has thrown back-to-back one hitters. C.C. Sabathia has been his normal consistent self. Sabathia is 9-3 with a solid 3.55 ERA. The Mets don't hit left-handers well. Brian Runge is one of the best under umpires in the business. Runge's large strike zone should help this one a lot. The under is 9-1 in Dickey's last 10 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the Mets last 4 Sunday games. Take the under.
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06-24-12 | Colorado Rockies v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Revenge* The Colorado Rockies pounded out 11 runs yesterday against the Texas Rangers. Colorado is just 11-22 on the road this year, and it should be tough for them to win back-to-back games against a Texas team that has the best record in baseball. Alex White has a road ERA over 7 and an overall ERA over 6. Matt Harrison has pitched well everywhere this year. The Rangers offense piles up runs in bunches very frequently. The Rangers are 25-8 in Harrison's last 33 starts. This one should get ugly. Take Texas -1.5.
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06-24-12 | Chicago (N): M Garza v. Arizona: W Miley UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago Cubs offense hasn't been good at all this year. Both of these teams busted out with a big offensive game last night, but I think this pitching matchup will lead to a lower scoring game here. Matt Garza has had pretty good success in the past against Arizona. Wade Miley has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this year. Miley is 8-3 with a 2.30 ERA so far this season. The under is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 Sunday games. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under.
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06-23-12 | Chicago (N): P Maholm v. Arizona: I Kennedy -1.5 | 5-10 | Win | 111 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Chicago Cubs are probably the worst team in baseball right now. The Cubs lineup doesn't string together hits very often, and I think they'll struggle against Ian Kennedy. Kennedy has been rounding into form of late. He had one bad start at Texas, but this Cubs lineup is nothing like Texas. Paul Maholm has an ERA over 6 on the road this year. Arizona is pounding left-handers this year. The DBacks are 7-1 in their last 8 home games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against lefties. Take Arizona -1.5.
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06-23-12 | New York Yankees v. New York Mets OVER 8.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees offense is one of the best in baseball. It isn't very often that you'll see a Yankees game with a total below 9 unless there is at least one ace on the mound. Ivan Nova and Chris Young are both very inconsistent pitchers. Nova has pitched well of late, but he gives up too many fly balls to be great all the time. Tim McClelland is one of the best 'over' umpires in baseball. He'll pinch the zone on both of these guys, and I think this total is set too low. Take the over here.
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06-23-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 11 | 4-8 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Doug Eddings is my single favorite 'under' umpire. Eddings has a huge strike zone, and every year he has more 'under' games than over. A total this high is extremely rare, and with Eddings behind the dish I see plenty of value. Delgado is a pitcher who walks a lot of people, but Eddings should help him. Morales doesn't normally start, but he is a capable pitcher. The under is 8-1-1 in Delgado's last 10 starts. The under is 4-0 in Delgado's last 4 interleague starts. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
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06-22-12 | SF GIANTS v. Oakland A's -119 | 5-4 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The San Francisco Giants offense has been in a pretty bad slump of late. The Giants have been shutout twice in the past 10 games. Jarrod Parker is one of the best young pitchers in the game right now. Parker has a stellar 1.59 ERA at home this year. Tim Lincecum isn't the same pitcher he used to be. His velocity is down badly and he has an ERA over 6 this year. It seems strange to say, but Parker is the better pitcher right now in this matchup. The Giants are 0-6 in Lincecum's last 6 on 5 days of rest. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road games. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games at Oakland. Oakland is 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a right-hander. This huge 23-0 angle backs my favorite play of the night. Take Oakland.
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06-22-12 | St.Louis Cardinals v. Kansas City Royals -110 | 11-4 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Kansas City Royals got off to a bad start this year, but they are playing some very good baseball right now. Kansas City is only 5 games under .500, and they are back in the thick of the AL Central race. The Royals offense is starting to produce the way many believed it would in 2012. Joe Kelly has been decent in his first two major league starts, but his 1.71 WHIP tells me he is flirting with trouble. Vin Mazzaro has been better than expected this year for Kansas City. The Cardinals are 5-12 in their last 17 road games. Take Kansas City.
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06-22-12 | Toronto Blue Jays +114 v. Miami Marlins | 12-5 | Win | 114 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* The Miami Marlins have been on some kind of a streak all season. They started the season poorly but then went 21-8 in May. Now the Marlins are 3-13 in their last 16 games. The offense just isn't producing and the bullpen has struggled all year. Ricky Romero hasn't been great of late, but the Blue Jays are tough to beat when he is on the mound. Toronto is 21-7 in Romero's last 28 starts. Anibal Sanchez has struggled of late. He has a 6.62 ERA in his last 3 starts. The oddsmakers are giving us a very generous price on Toronto here. Take the Blue Jays.
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06-21-12 | Colorado: J Francis v. Philadelphia: V Worley -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Jeff Francis starts this game for the Colorado Rockies. Francis didn't even have a job at the beginning of the year since no major league team wanted him, but the Rockies picked him up after the team badly needed some starting pitching. Francis has had an ERA around 5 for three straight years before this one. So far this year he has allowed 12 runs in two starts. The Phillies offense is better than most believe. In addition, Vance Worley is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The Rockies are 1-11 in their last 12 games, and this is a major pitching mismatch. Take the Phillies -1.5.
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06-21-12 | Colorado: J Francis v. Philadelphia: V Worley OVER 9.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jeff Francis starts this game for the Colorado Rockies. Francis didn't even have a job at the beginning of the year since no major league team wanted him, but the Rockies picked him up after the team badly needed some starting pitching. Francis has had an ERA around 5 for three straight years before this one. So far this year he has allowed 12 runs in two starts. The Phillies offense is better than most believe. Vance Worley is a solid pitcher, but the Rockies can pile up the runs. The weather should be great for scoring here with a 90 degree temperature and wind out to center. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 home games. The over is 13-3 in Francis' last 16 starts. The over is 6-1 in Worley's last 7 starts. Take the over.
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06-21-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers -136 v. Oakland A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -136 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Moneyline Top Play* The Oakland A's are a scrappy team who can be tough to beat at home, but I love the price on the Dodgers in this one. We get a major pitching mismatch at a very reasonable price here. Clayton Kershaw has been the best left-handed pitcher in baseball the last few years. The A's offense is dead last in the majors in team batting average. The Dodgers just continue to win despite missing Matt Kemp. Travis Blackley has never shown the ability to stick with a major league team in his career, and I think the Dodgers can get to him. The Dodgers are 7-1 in Kershaw's last 8 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Oakland is 1-8 in their last 9 games against lefties. Take The Dodgers big!
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06-20-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jered Weaver will start this game after missing several starts with a lower back strain. Weaver has been virtually unhittable at home this year. In nearly 33 innings, Weaver has an amazing 0.83 ERA at home. Ryan Vogelsong has been underrated by the oddsmakers for a long time. The under is 28-10 in Vogelsong's last 38 starts overall. Vogelsong has 9 straight quality starts. The under is 21-7-1 in Weaver's last 29 starts against a team with a winning record. Look for both pitchers to pitch very well. Take the under.
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06-20-12 | Chicago Cubs v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 10 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Bill Miller is the umpire behind home plate in this one. Miller is one of my favorite under umpires. Getting a number this high with Miller behind home plate is too much for me to pass up. The Cubs offense hasn't been good this season. Gavin Floyd has pitched poorly of late, but he has fared well against the Cubs in his career. Without any extremely warm temperatures or wind blowing out, I don't see why this total should be 10 in this game. I like the value on the under.
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06-20-12 | Atlanta Braves v. New York Yankees UNDER 9 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Tommy Hanson and Phil Hughes are both pitching their best right now. Hanson has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. Hughes started the season horribly, but he has a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Braves offense has been in a major slump as of late. This day game after a night game will likely lead to some stars getting the day off. The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6. The under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
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06-19-12 | Kansas City Royals v. Houston Astros -121 | 2-0 | Loss | -121 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Wandy Rodriguez may be in a bit of a slump of late, but I think this is a very good spot to back him and the Astros. Kansas City is coming off an emotional series win at St. Louis. The Royals are no better than mediocre, and the Astros are 19-14 at home. Wandy Rodriguez has been spectacular at home for several years now, and Luke Hochevar has been one of my favorite pitchers to fade for the past few years. Hochevar has a 6.27 ERA this year. The Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take Houston.
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06-19-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians played to a 10-9 final last night. I had the over in that one, and I think the over is the play again in this one. Both bullpens are completely spent right now, and I'm not very impressed with either of these starters. The exact same pitching matchup last week ended in a 12-5 Reds win. The Reds offense is on fire right now, and the Indians are very tough at home. Both pitchers are capable of giving up the big inning. The weather should help with hot temps and winds blowing out. The over is 5-1 in the Indians last 6 home games. Take the over.
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06-19-12 | Atlanta Braves v. New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Atlanta Braves offense has been hibernating of late. Atlanta has scored a total of two runs in their last three games. Hiroki Kuroda had a solid 3.43 ERA this year. Tim Hudson has allowed just 2 earned runs in his past 28 innings pitched. These two pitchers met last week and the final was 3-2. Neither of these pitchers give up many long balls. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 games. The under is 5-1 in Kuroda's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
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06-18-12 | Texas Rangers -1.5 v. San Diego Padres | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The San Diego Padres may have the worst team in all of baseball. San Diego's line up is dreadful and they don't even have the solid pitching staff they used to have. Jason Marquis was picked up by the Padres because of their lack of depth in their starting rotation. Marquis was lit up earlier this year in Minnesota, and I don't think he has good enough stuff to shut down a terrific Texas lineup. Matt Harrison has had two bad starts this year, but other than that he's been great. The Rangers are 19-7 in Harrison's last 26 road starts. The Padres are 14-41 in their last 55 games against a left-handed pitcher. This one could get ugly. Take the Rangers -1.5.
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06-18-12 | Seattle Mariners v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-7 | Win | 102 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Seattle Mariners lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The Mariners hit just .234 and average 3.69 runs per game against left-handed pitching. Wade Miley has been one of the most surprising pitchers in all of baseball this year. Miley has a spectacular 2.39 ERA. He has a dazzling 0.57 ERA in his last three starts. Hector Noesi has been hit hard this year, but Arizona's offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders of late. The roof should be closed here, which makes Chase Field a pretty average stadium as far as runs per game. The under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. I think this total is set too high. Take the under here.
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06-18-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8.5 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Mat Latos hasn't been nearly as good as the Reds would have hoped so far in 2012. Latos has allowed 78 hits in 75 and 2/3 innings. He has a mediocre ERA of 4.64 this year. He gives up far too many long balls, and the weather conditions will be suitable for home runs Monday night. Derek Lowe started the year with an impressive run, but he has regressed in his last few starts. Lowe allows far too many base runners to be highly successful in the long run. He has a ridiculously high 1.53 WHIP. The Reds offense has been much better over the last month. Joey Votto is on fire and Brandon Phillips has been consistently great. The over is 4-1 in the Indians last 5 home games. The over is 4-1 in Latos' last 5 games as a favorite. Take the over.
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06-17-12 | Kansas City Royals v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Wainwright was a terrific pitcher a few years ago and they still may become great again, but he is struggling this year. Wainwright has an ERA above 5 at home this season. Luis Mendoza has a 4.89 ERA this season. He has struggled against the best offenses he has faced. The Cardinals are the highest scoring team in the National League. The weather should help here with 90 degree temperatures and wind blowing out to center field. The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.
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06-17-12 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Zack Greinke has been brilliant at home this year, but he hasn't pitched very well on the road. In fact, Greinke has an ERA slightly above 5 on the road in 2012. The Twins offense has been much better of late thanks to a healthy line up and big production from Trevor Plouffe. Nick Blackburn has an ERA far above 7 in 2012. Blackburn simply doesn't have good enough stuff to put away very many batters right now. The over is 10-1-2 in Greinke's last 13 as a road favorite. The over is 7-0-2 in the Twins last 9 interleague games as an underdog. Take the over.
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06-17-12 | New York Yankees -108 v. Washington Nationals | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The New York Yankees have won eight straight games. The Bronx Bombers offense is clicking once again. Curtis Granderson has 20 homers and Derek Jeter looks like a player in his prime once again. Ivan Nova is 8-2 on the year, largely because the Yankees have backed him with tremendous run support. Nova has only given up one run in his last 15 innings pitched though, so he may be turning the corner. Edwin Jackson has been good this year, but the Yankees have great numbers against him. The Yankees are 10-1 in Nova's last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games. Take the Yankees.
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06-17-12 | Miami Marlins -103 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 0-3 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline VALUE* Josh Johnson is starting to look like the Josh Johnson of old. That is bad news for batters around the majors, but I think that means we can make some cash on him for a while. Johnson has given up 3 runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts. Alex Cobb has a 6.27 ERA in his last three starts. The Rays offense isn't good enough to overcome this pitching mismatch in the Marlins favor in my opinion. The Marlins are 7-1 in Johnson's last 8 starts. The Rays are 1-4 in Cobb's last 5 home starts. Take Miami.
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06-17-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies offense is slightly better than most people realize this year. They actually rank in the top ten in the majors in team batting average. Brett Cecil was terrible in Spring Training, and I'm not convinced he's figured out all his issues. Kyle Kendrick has been an 'over' machine in his career, especially on the road. The over is is 7-1 in Kendrick's last 8 starts as a road underdog. The over is 23-5 in the Phillies last 28 road games. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over.
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06-16-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Seattle Mariners OVER 7 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Kevin Millwood left his last start with a groin injury. He's expected to pitch in this one, but I don't think he'll be 100%. Tim Lincecum hasn't just been worse this year, he has been terrible. Lincecum has a ridiculous 7.98 road ERA. The Seattle lineup isn't good, but they have been hitting better of late. San Francisco has a better lineup this year with a healthy Posey and a Melky Cabrera crushing the ball in the middle of the order. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 8-1 in the Giants last 9 road games. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games. Take the over.
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06-16-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* A.J. Burnett had one horrible start earlier this year, but he has been great in the rest of his outings. Ubaldo Jimenez has a solid 3.38 ERA at home. The Pirates only average 3.27 runs per game against right handed pitching. I think Pittsburgh is the type of team that Jimenez can shut down at home. Both of these pitchers are better than the oddsmakers value them right now. The under is 5-1 in Burnett's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
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06-16-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays +101 | 5-6 | Win | 101 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Cliff Lee still hasn't gotten a win this year. It isn't that Lee has pitched poorly, but the Phillies simply don't score runs for him. Ricky Romero is an underrated young pitcher for the Blue Jays. Philadelphia has struggled all year against left handed pitchers. The Phillies are 3-8 in Lee's last 11 starts. The Blue Jays are 15-3 in Romero's last 18 home starts. Lee is still getting lots of respect from the oddsmakers, but I think we're getting a good price on the home team here. Take Toronto.
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06-15-12 | Cincinnati: B Arroyo v. New York (N): D Gee OVER 8 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Cincinnati Reds offense started the season in a funk, but they are hitting the ball in a big way right now. Joey Votto is hitting the ball better than anyone in baseball right now. Brandon Phillips is healthy and swinging the bat extremely well. Dillon Gee has an ERA near 5 at home, and I think the Reds can get to him. Bronson Arroyo started the year well, but he has struggled of late. The over is 7-0-1 in Gee's last 8 home starts. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
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