Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-01-11 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians -136 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Surprise Streak* The Cleveland Indians weren't supposed to be good this year, but they have now won 12 straight games at home. Justin Masterson is pitching on Sunday, and Masterson has an ERA of 3.06 at home in his career. The Indians are 7-0 in his last 7 home starts. Phil Coke starts for the Tigers. Coke has been wild in his last couple starts, and the Indians have teed off on lefties so far this year. I think the Indians keep the streak going. I think this is a fair price for the Indians moneyline. Take Cleveland.
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05-01-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 145 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Runline ROUT* The Yankees are a much better hitting team than the Blue Jays. Toronto has thrown a couple very good young pitchers in the first two games of this series, which has held the Yankees offense down a bit. Litsch will be pitching in this one, and I think the Yankees can get to him. Ivan Nova isn't great for the Yankees, but he holds his own at home. Don't forget these Yankees rarely lose at home. The Yankees are 106-47 in their last 153 home games. The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 against the Blue Jays with Litsch pitching. Take the Yankees -1.5.
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04-30-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Tasty Total* Chase Field is a hitter's paradise when the roof is open, and the roof should be open for this one. Last night I lost on the 'over' play, but there were still four home runs. In two games in this series there have been eight home runs. I expect several more in this game. Matt Garza hasn't pitched in Arizona before, and Ian Kennedy has a 5.24 ERA in April in his career. The line has been adjusted slightly lower than yesterday's total, which is plenty for me to jump on the over again here. The over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two in Arizona. Take the over.
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04-30-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 126 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Bounceback Big Bet* The Colorado Rockies were shutout by the Pirates on Friday night. I'm going to bet that won't happen again on Saturday night. The numbers are backing the Rockies in a strong way in this game. The Rockies are 23-8 in Hammel's last 31 home starts. The Pirates are 16-56 in their last 72 road games. Paul Maholm has been terrible at Coors Field, and against the Rockies in general in his career. Maholm has an ERA of 6.84 against Colorado overall, and in Coors Field his ERA is 7.53. Not surprisingly, the Pirates are 0-7 in Maholm's last 7 starts against Colorado. I think the Rockies bounce back here. Colorado -1.5 is the play.
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04-30-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH Special* The Seattle Mariners have won four straight games on the road, and the books are getting a little higher on them. I think this is a good chance to fade Seattle. The Mariners offense is terrible. John Lackey has looked pretty good this year, and I think he matches up pretty well here. The Red Sox lineup is tremendous, and I think they will have no trouble putting up several runs against Doug Fister. The Mariners are 3-14 in Fister's last 17 road starts. Boston is 13-4 in Lackey's last 17 home starts. Take Boston -1.5.
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04-30-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Houston Astros +114 | 1-2 | Win | 114 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* Wandy Rodriguez hasn't started the season out quite as well as some expected, but I think the books are too down on him right now. This is a pitcher who has dominated at home for several straight years, and I don't think that domination is over just yet. On the other side, Randy Wolf has pitched well of late, but he has been extremely inconsistent in the past couple years and I think he is due for a poor outing. Wandy getting this kind of money is worth a play. I'll take the Astros in this one.
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04-30-11 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, and Colby Lewis is a much better pitcher on the road. The under is 21-6 in Lewis' last 27 road starts. Brett Anderson is one of my favorite pitchers in the American League. He has tremendous stuff and he is absolutely dominant at home. Anderson has a tremendous ERA of 0.64 in two starts at home so far this year. Paul Nauert is behind the dish here and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 5-1 in Lewis' last 6 road starts against Oakland. I expect a well pitched game on both sides. Take the under.
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04-30-11 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the National League right now, primarily because of his consistent dominance. The New York Mets are getting a little bit too much credit from the books right now because of their recent six game winning streak. Earlier this year Jon Niese and Roy Halladay squared off against each other. The Phillies won the game 11-0. I don't expect Philadelphia to win that easily in this one, but I do think the runline is a very good value here. Take the Phillies -1.5.
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04-29-11 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers will be a little short-handed tonight, but I still think they have a much better lineup than the San Diego Padres. Casey Blake is expected to miss the game and Juan Uribe is questionable. Still, the Dodgers have Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, who are better than anyone in the Padres lineup. Ted Lilly is a pretty good left-hander, and his splits have shown he can pitch quite well in Dodger Stadium. Clayton Richard is a pretty good pitcher as well, but he has been better at home. I think this is a very good value on the Dodgers moneyline.
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04-29-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a completely different park when the roof is open, and it is expected to be open tonight. The ball carries in a huge way, especially when it is hot with low humidity. Today's weather report shows a lot of heat and almost no humidity. Carlos Zambrano certainly allows plenty of home runs, and I think Arizona will get to him tonight. The Cubs should have no problem scoring quite a few on Armando Galarraga, who is a fly ball pitcher in what will be a hitter's paradise. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Arizona. Take the over.
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04-29-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Pittsburgh Pirates may have started the season with some decent wins on the road, but don't let that fool you. This is still the same Pirates team that is terrible on the road. Pittsburgh is 15-56 in their last 71 road games. They are 10-41 in their last 51 road games against a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 16-6 in their last 22 games overall. They are also 7-3 in Chacin's last 10 home starts. The Pirates are just 3-10 in their last 13 games at Coors Field. I like the Rockies to win this one easily.
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04-29-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves OVER 7 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Totals Takedown* It would be easy to look at the pitching matchup in this one and think the 'under' should be an automatic play. A longer look at the statistics tells me that the 'over' is the better way to go. Chris Carpenter and Tim Hudson are both very good pitchers, but their opponent in this game have hit them very well in the past. The over is 7-0 in Carpenter's last 7 starts against the Braves. The over is 5-1-2 in Hudson's last 8 starts against the Cardinals. Both teams have seen their offense come to life over the last few days. I think the over is a solid play here.
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04-29-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Selection* The Tampa Bay Rays took it to the Twins twice yesterday in Minnesota. Tampa Bay is playing some very good baseball right now. Los Angeles is a team that I believe is a little bit overrated right now. I don't see the Angels lineup as very good at all. David Price is a dominant left-handed starter, and the Angels are 3-12 in their last 15 road games against a lefty. Ervin Santana has a terrible 7.36 ERA in seven starts at Tampa Bay. The Angels are 0-5 in Santana's last 5 starts in Tampa Bay. The Rays are 20-9 in Price's last 29 home games. I like the value on the runline here.
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04-28-11 | Tampa Bay Rays -105 v. Minnesota Twins | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Doubleheader Delight* The Tampa Bay Rays took it to the Twins in the first game of the Doubleheader on Thursday, and I expect them to win the second game as well. The Twins lineup is severely short-handed right now. They don't have Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Jim Thome, or Jason Repko. The Rays are hitting the ball well right now, and Jeff Niemann has pitched well against Minnesota in his career. In fact, Tampa Bay is 4-0 in Niemann's last 4 starts against the Twins. Minnesota will start Anthony Swarzak, and the Twins are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. I like the Rays to finish off the sweep on Thursday.
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04-28-11 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Houston Astros | 11-7 | Win | 125 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Houston Astros aren't a very good team this year. Earlier this year some people were talking about how bad the Cardinals lineup was, but now with a healthy Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman in the middle of the order, they look much better. Nelson Figueroa had an 8.55 ERA this year, and I really don't think he will stay in the Astros rotation much longer. On the other hand, Kyle McClellan hasn't given up more than two runs in any start this year. I think the Cardinals have the edge in every category here. I like the Cardinals -1.5 here.
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04-28-11 | New York Mets v. Washington Nationals -110 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The New York Mets benefited from a Washington Nationals bullpen meltdown yesterday night. The Mets have now won six straight games overall. While the Mets are cetainly better now, I'm not convinced they are any better than a decent team. Livan Hernandez has been very good at home the last couple years, and Chris Capuano is not a very good pitcher at this point in his career. The Nationals hit Capuano well the first time they saw him earlier this year. Hernandez has four straight quality starts against the Mets. I think the Mets recent success has the line skewed in their favor. I think Washington will end their streak in this one. Take Washington.
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04-28-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Seattle Mariners have scored 17 runs in the last two days. I have played against Seattle in both of those games, and they have definitely hurt me. I still am going to stick with the fact that this Seattle offense is absolutely terrible. Ichiro is very good, but after that no one on this team is scary. Miguel Olivo is hitting cleanup for them right now. Pineda is a great young pitcher for the Mariners, and the Tigers lineup is struggling quite a bit without Victor Martinez. I think the best way to play this one is the under. This is an instance where I believe recent trends (the Mariners hitting very well) give us a very generous line on the under. Take the under here.
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04-27-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Blue Jays have been smashing the baseball in a big way in this series so far, and I expect them to keep it going on Wednesday. At the same time, Texas should be able to put up several runs with JoJo Reyes on the hill for the Blue Jays. Reyes is a not dominant pitcher, and I don't think he'll fare well in a hitter's park like Texas. Derek Holland is on the mound for Texas, and his career ERA at home is 5.68. Holland gives up too many fly balls, and I think the Blue Jays will take him deep a couple times. The over is 6-2 in Holland's last 8 home starts. The over is 4-1 in Toronto's last five games. Take the over.
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04-27-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Seattle Mariners might have gotten the best of the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night, but I don't think it will happen on Wednesday. Erik Bedard just hasn't looked good at all this year, and the Detroit Tigers have a decent lineup with Ordonez and Cabrera in the middle of the order. Justin Verlander is great at home, and the Mariners have a terrible lineup. The Tigers are 43-18 in Verlander's last 61 home starts. I think Detroit will take this one comfortable. Take the Tigers -1.5.
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04-27-11 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH* The Oakland Athletics have a pretty good pitching staff, but at this point Tyson Ross is the weak link in their rotation. Dan Haren is absolutely dominant in the first half of the year, and Oakland's offense is not good at all. I honestly think Haren could completely shut down this Oakland offense. The Angels are 5-2 in Haren's last 7 starts. Los Angeles is 8-0 in their last 8 home meetings with the Oakland A's. Oakland is just 1-5 in their last 6 against a right-handed starter. I like the Angels to win this one easily. Take the Angels -1.5.
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04-27-11 | New York Mets v. Washington Nationals OVER 8 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Mets offense has been much better since Jason Bay came back into the lineup. The Washington Nationals are a decent hitting team now with Jayson Werth in the middle of the lineup. R.A. Dickey and Tom Gorzelanny are two pitchers that I fade fairly often. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 15 mph during the game tonight. The over is 4-1 in the Mets last 5. The over is 5-2 in the Nationals last 7. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. I think the 'over' is a good value here.
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04-27-11 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 8-4 | Win | 115 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Revenge Special* The Phillies have dropped the first two of this series, but I think this is a great revenge spot for the Phillies. Cole Hamels has been absolutely dealing of late. While many pitchers have struggled at Chase Field, Hamels has a 3.66 ERA in his career there. Joe Saunders does not have dominating pitches like Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. I think this will be a nice chance for the Phillies hitters to get back in a groove against a hittable lefty. The Phillies are 23-9 in their last 32 games against a lefty. The DBacks are just 3-7 in their last 10 against a lefty. I think the Phillies win easily here. Take Philadelphia -1.5.
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04-27-11 | Atlanta Braves -105 v. San Diego Padres | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Braves and Padres will square off Wednesday afternoon in the rubber match of this three-game set. I think the Padres offense that was pretty bad last year has turned into the worst in the National League. Mat Latos is on the hill for San Diego, and he just doesn't seem to have his confidence or control right now. Tommy Hanson has been pitching well, and in his career he has a 2.45 ERA against San Diego. The Padres are 1-10 in Latos' last 11 starts overall. The Braves are 13-5 in their last 18 games in San Diego. Take Atlanta.
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04-26-11 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's have a very good pitching staff, but they don't have a good lineup at all this year. The Angels lineup has been scuffling badly of late, and I think that is likely to continue against Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy was a top prospect a few years ago, and he is finally realizing his potential after years of arm problems. Chatwood has a solid start to his career as well. Chatwood sometimes has trouble with walks, but Carlson is the umpire behind the dish here and he has a large strike zone. Two bad offenses and a nice 'under' umpire equals a play on the under for me.
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04-26-11 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Mike Leake has struggled in his short major league career on the road, and I think the Brewers are the type of team that can make him pay for his mistakes. The Brewers are hungry to payback the Reds for Cincinnati's 4-0 record against them already this year. At the same time, the Reds have a solid lineup and Estrada is not a proven pitcher at this point. Tim Tschida is behind the dish and he has typically been a decent 'over' umpire. I think the total is set too low here. Take the over!
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04-26-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Houston Astros +122 | 5-6 | Win | 122 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* Bud Norris has been terrific in his career against the St. Louis Cardinals. He has pitched six times against the Cardinals and he has an ERA of just 2.27 in those six starts. The Astros are 5-1 in those six games. Garcia is a solid starter as well, but the Cardinals will likely be without their star hitter in this one. Albert Pujols was injured in Sunday's game and he will likely be out of the lineup. The Astros are 12-5 in Norris' last 17 starts. They are also 7-2 in his last 9 home starts. Take the healthy underdog here.
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04-26-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Detroit Tigers +110 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Hidden Gem* I don't like betting against King Felix, but Seattle is a terrible baseball team. They have one of the worst lineups in baseball, and they are miserable on the road. Hernandez is excellent, but not quite as dominant on the road. The Mariners are only 6-13 in his last 19 starts on the road. The Tigers are a very good home team. Detroit is 21-8 in their last 29 home games. The Mariners are just 5-11 in their last 16 games in Detroit. Phil Coke has allowed just four earned runs in three starts. I'll take the Tigers at plus money on their home field.
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04-26-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -1.5 | 4-9 | Win | 140 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Runline ROUT* I think the Kansas City Royals are due for a bit of a correction in the coming weeks. Justin Masterson has always had very good stuff, and this year it seems like he has figured out how to locate his pitches. Masterson has fared well against the Royals in the past, and he is a much better pitcher at home. Masterson has an ERA of about 3.6 at home in his career, and it is around 5 on the road. Luke Hochevar isn't a good pitcher on the road, and the Royals aren't a good road team. The Indians are 14-3 in their last 17 home games. The Royals are 17-38 in their last 55 road games. Cleveland -1.5 is the play.
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04-25-11 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* It might seem strange to play an 'over' with Cliff Lee on the mound, but I feel this is a strong play. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open, and the roof is expected to be open tonight. Hot weather with low humidity makes the ball fly much farther, and multiple home runs are likely tonight. Ian Kennedy is a solid pitcher, but he has struggled mightily when the roof is open in Arizona. In his last outing with the roof open in Arizona he allowed nine runs in three innings against St. Louis. Both of these offenses are good, and I think this is a great value on the over.
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04-25-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Texas Rangers are without Josh Hamilton, but they can definitely still hit the baseball. Kyle Drabek has solid numbers this year, but Texas is no pitchers ballpark, and I think he'll struggle there. The weather conditions are good for an 'over' tonight, with a wind tunnel effect pushing the ball out. The over is 46-22-3 in Toronto's last 71 opening games of a series. The over is 5-2-2 in Colby Lewis' last 9 home starts. I expect both teams to put up several runs in this one. I like the value on the over.
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04-25-11 | Chicago White Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 10 | 2-0 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total KNOCKOUT* The New York Yankees come home to host an ice cold White Sox team. Humber is the starter for Chicago, and though his numbers look decent this year, I'm not convinced it will stay that way. Humber has three starts this year, two against the Rays and one against the Angels. Obviously the Rays and the Angels don't have the lineup that the Yankees have. I think New York will hit him hard in this one. Burnett is on the hill for New York, and in his last two games against the White Sox, Chicago has teed off on him. The over is 6-1 in Burnett's last 7 home games. Take the over here.
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04-24-11 | Oakland A's -127 v. Seattle Mariners | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline CASH* Brett Anderson is quickly becoming one of the best left-handed pithers in baseball. The Seattle Mariners do not have a good offense, and Anderson has pitched very well against them in the past. Anderson has a career ERA of 1.97 against Seattle, which is extremely impressive since that is in 68 and 2/3 innings. Doug Fister is not a bad a pitcher at home, but the Mariners don't often give him much run support. The Mariners are 8-21 in Fister's last 29 starts overall. The A's are 6-2 in their last 8 games at Seattle. I'll take the team with the better pitcher and the slightly better lineup. Take Oakland.
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04-24-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins -124 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* The Minnesota Twins had a long road trip, and it didn't go well at all. Justin Morneau missed a lot of action, but now he is back in the middle of the order. The Twins are a much better team at home, and I expect them to show that again on Sunday. Carl Pavano had a poor outing in Baltimore last time out, but I think he bounces back against a subpar Indians lineup in this one. Carlos Carrasco is on the hill for Cleveland. Carrasco has talent, but he still struggles with control, especially on the road. The Indians are just 5-11 in his lats 16 starts. The Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 games at Minnesota. Take the Twins.
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04-24-11 | New York Yankees v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Freddy Garcia has pitched well so far this year, but I still don't think he can be trusted too much. Jake Arrieta has the potential to be very good in the future, but right now he is definitely hittable. Angel Campos is the home plate umpire in this one, and he is one of the biggest 'over' umpires in the league. The over is 8-3-1 in his last 12 games behind the plate. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at about 10 miles per hour in this one. The over is 7-3 in the Orioles last 10. The over is 20-9-1 in the Yankees last 30. Take the over in this one.
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04-24-11 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Knockout* I think John Danks is an underrated pitcher. Danks is one of those rare pitchers who actually has a better ERA (3.64) on the road in his career. On the other side, Max Scherzer has been tremendous in Detroit. At home, Scherzer has an ERA of just 2.92 as a Tiger. The under is 9-3 in Scherzer's last 12 home starts. The under is 7-3 in Danks' last 10 starts against Detroit. Detroit's lineup isn't nearly as good without Victor Martinez in the middle of the lineup. I think both pitchers will fare well in this one. Take the under.
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04-24-11 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Runline ROUT* I successfully won with the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday, but that was a completely different pitching matchup. James Shields has a career ERA over 5 on the road, and Ricky Romero is a very good young pitcher. Shields' ERA in Toronto is 5.87, while Romero has an ERA of just 3.62 at home, and 3.37 during the daytime. The Rays are just 10-25 when Shields starts and they are the underdog. While Tampa Bay has been much better of late, they still don't have that great of a lineup, and I think Romero will shut them down nicely. I think the Blue Jays have enough pop to get to Shields. Take the Blue Jays -1.5 here.
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04-23-11 | Boston Red Sox +104 v. Los Angeles Angels | 5-0 | Win | 104 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* I understand that DiceK isn't really completely trustworthy right now, but I think getting the Boston Red Sox as an underdog to this Angels team is a great value. Boston has a huge advantage in the lineup category, and they have played extremely well at Los Angeles in the past. The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 at Los Angeles. They are also 13-1 in their last 14 meetings with the Angels. The Sox are 4-1 in DiceK's last five starts against the Angels. I think this is too good of a value to pass up. Take Boston.
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04-23-11 | Philadelphia Phillies v. San Diego Padres OVER 7 | 4-2 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Top Total* Anytime I see a game that Joe Blanton is pitching in lined at seven runs for the over/under, I'm going to take a long look at the over. I know the Padres are terrible offensively, but Blanton is a much different pitcher than Oswalt or Hamels. The Phillies are very good offensively, and I expect them to get to Tim Stauffer some as well. We've got the best 'over' umpire in the business behind the plate here. The over is 11-5-1 in Jim Reynolds' last 17 behind the dish, and he has a nice track record of overs in past years. The over is 21-6 in Blanton's last 27 starts. Take the over.
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04-23-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 104 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Rout* Kyle Davies is a pitcher I look to fade whenever possible, and I think this is a really good opportunity. Ogandi is a very solid young pitcher, and the Royals have struggled quite a bit against right-handed pitchers this year. The Rangers are 8-2 in their last ten home games, and they have been very good at home over the last couple years. The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 games at Texas. The Royals are also 0-6 in Davies' last 6 starts against the Rangers. I think this has the makings of a big win for Texas. Texas -1.5 is the play here.
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04-23-11 | Colorado Rockies -106 v. Florida Marlins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Bounceback Big Bet* The Colorado Rockies picked up one hit on Friday night against Anibal Sanchez. I expect them to bounce back in a big way against Javier Vazquez and the Marlins on Saturday night. The Rockies are 7-2 on the road this year, and they have one of the best lineups in all of baseball. Vazquez has struggled mightily so far this year, and this Rockies lineup isn't a team you want to be facing when you are having control problems. I expect a focused Rockies team to take it to the Marlins on Saturday.
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04-23-11 | Colorado Rockies v. Florida Marlins OVER 8.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jason Hammel has an ERA of above 6 in Florida, and Javier Vazquez has an ERA above 8 this year. The Rockies should be fired up to get back on track offensively after getting one hit by Sanchez on Friday. At the same time, Hammel doesn't have the kind of stuff to shut down the Marlins on the road. This is the type of game where I think both bullpens will be used for quite a while. I expect this one to be a high scoring affair. Take the over in this game.
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04-23-11 | Tampa Bay Rays -115 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* David Price has not lost to the Toronto Blue Jays in his career. In fact, the Tampa Bay Rays are 7-0 in his last 7 starts against the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay lost to the Blue Jays yesterday, but the Rays are playing much better baseball of late. Brandon Morrow is a pitcher with plenty of ability, but he is making his first start coming off the DL and I think he'll be a little rusty here. The Rays are 21-5 in Price's last 26 starts against an AL East foe. The Blue Jays struggle against lefties, and I think Price will quiet this Toronto lineup. Take Tampa Bay.
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04-22-11 | Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Jon Lester vs. Dan Haren is a terrific pitching matchup. I think both pitchers will pitch extremely well on Friday night. Lester has shut down the Angels in the past. Vernon Wells is just 5 for 28 against Lester, and Bobby Abreu is just 4 for 17. Dan Haren has consistently been one of the best pitchers in the league before the All-Star break. Haren rarely gets run support from the Angels, but he generally eats up innings and shuts down the opposition. How about some impressive 100% winning angles here? The under is 5-0 in Lester's last 5 starts against the Angels. The under is 7-0 in Haren's last 7 games with a total set between 7 and 8.5. Overall, the under is 13-2-2 in Haren's last 17 outings. I like the under in this one.
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04-22-11 | Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | 7-14 | Win | 113 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Bookie BASHER* I believe the Brewers are a much better team than the Houston Astros. Yovani Gallardo is the ace for Milwaukee, and Nelson Figueroa is the weakest starter for the Astros. I believe this is a pitching mismatch. Additionally, the Brewers have Braun, Fielder, Weeks, and others offensively. The Astros have one of the worst lineups in the National League. The Brewers are 4-0 in Gallardo's last 4 starts against the Astros overall. The Brewers are 5-0 in Gallardo's last 5 home starts against the Astros. Houston is 5-13 in their last 18 road games. I expect Milwaukee to win comfortably here.
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04-22-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Mets OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Mike Pelfrey has gotten off to a very rocky start this year. I don't think it will help him to pitch against the Diamondbacks. Pelfrey has an ERA of 7.09 in his career against Arizona. Last year in Pelfrey's two starts against Arizona, the Mets lost 9-6 and 13-2. Joe Saunders is the type of pitcher who pitches to contact, and I think this Mets lineup can get to him. With Wright, Beltran, and now Bay in the middle of the lineup, the Mets should improve offensively. Both teams have a bad bullpen, so if it gets to the pen early that is a great sign for the over. I like the over in this one.
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04-21-11 | Philadelphia Phillies -108 v. San Diego Padres | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline Cash Play* It is Roy Oswalt vs. Matt Latos in this one. Latos was terrific last year, but he hasn't had his "A" Game so far this year. Latos lost both meetings against the Phillies last year, including one against Oswalt. Roy Oswalt has been great this year, and I think he'll fare well against a below average lineup in San Diego. What about the trends? The Phillies are 14-3 in Oswalt's last 17 starts. The Phillies are 20-6 in their last 26 in San Diego. The Padres are 0-7 in Latos' last 7 starts overall. The Phillies have the better pitcher here and they have a much better lineup. The Phillies are the play here.
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04-21-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Florida Marlins -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 161 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Rout* The Florida Marlins have spanked the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first two games of this series, and I think it will happen again in the final game of the series. James McDonald is pitching for Pittsburgh, and his ERA on the road in his career is 4.82. He also has an ERA of 5.68 in the first half of the season. Chris Volstad has improved as a pitcher this year, and the Marlins are a pretty good team at home. Don't forget, these are the same Pirates that are horrible on the road. Pittsburgh is 15-55 in their last 70 road games. Getting huge plus money on the run line is a great value here. Take Florida -1.5.
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04-21-11 | Houston Astros +122 v. New York Mets | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The New York Mets just aren't a very good baseball team right now. Jason Bay will probably be back in the lineup on Thursday, but he will likely be rusty. The Mets aren't getting any production out of the bottom of their order right now. Chris Capuano has an ERA of 8.53 and he simply doesn't have a dominant pitch at this point in his career. J.A. Happ is a bit inconsistent, but he is fully capable of being dominating. The Astros have a heavy right-handed lineup, and they are hitting .313 against lefties so far this year. The Mets are hitting just .197 against left-handers. I really like the underdog in this one. Take the Astros.
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04-21-11 | Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 111 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Minnesota Twins offense has been terrible this year. Minnesota has yet to put up more than 5 runs in a single game all year. It looks as if they'll be without Morneau and Young again on Thursday and Mauer is still on the DL. Jeremy Guthrie is a solid pitcher, especially at home. Scott Baker has been great against the Orioles in his career. Baker is 5-0 with an ERA under 3 against Baltimore. The under is 10-3 in the Twins last 13 games. The under is 7-3 in Guthrie's last 10 home starts. I expect a good performance from both pitchers here. Take the under.
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04-21-11 | Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers -132 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Clayton Kershaw had a bad outing last time out, but I don't expect two bad outings in a row from him. Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in the National League, and he is terrific at home. Jair Jurrjens made his first start of the year last week against the Mets, and he pitched a shutout. The Mets are terrible right now, and I think he may be getting a little too much credit for that shutout. The Dodgers are 5-2 in Kershaw's last 7 home starts. I think this is a very fair price for Kershaw and the Dodgers at home against a Braves team that is bad on the road. Take the Dodgers.
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04-20-11 | Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* It's no secret that Dodger Stadium isn't exactly a hitter's park, especially at night. Derek Lowe is a solid sinker ball pitcher, and he should keep the ball in the park against an ordinary Dodgers lineup. Jon Garland was poor in his first start this year, but I think he should have a pretty good year in a pitcher's ballpark like Dodger Stadium. John Hirschbeck is the umpire behind the dish in this one, and he is one of the best 'under' umpires in the game today. The under 18-7-1 in Lowe's last 26 starts. Take the under here.
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04-20-11 | Houston Astros v. New York Mets OVER 7.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* R.A. Dickey hasn't been pitching very well so far this year. Knuckleballers tend to run in streaks, and I think he is having trouble locating his pitches right now. On the other side, Bud Norris has been terrible on the road over his career. Norris has an ERA of 5.42 on the road in his career. Norris also usually doesn't get very deep into the game and this Astros bullpen is bad. The Mets bullpen is equally bad. If the bullpens are in this game much at all, I like the chances for the over here. Take the over.
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04-20-11 | New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays +106 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* Brett Cecil was 5-0 last year against the New York Yankees. While the Yankees do have a better lineup, it will be the Blue Jays with the better pitcher on the mound Wednesday night. Bartolo Colon is on the hill for the Yankees, and I'm not convinced that he can be effective as a starter anymore. The Yankees haven't been that good on the road, and I don't understand why they are favored in this game. The Yankees are 1-3 on the road so far this year, and the Blue Jays are 5-2 at home. ARod is questionable and he may well miss this game. Take the underdog. Toronto is the play.
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04-20-11 | Boston Red Sox v. Oakland A's -107 | 5-3 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline Cash Play* Gio Gonzalez is quietly becoming a dominant pitcher for the Oakland Athletics. At the same time, Clay Buchholz is struggling mightily this year. Buchholz has an ERA of 18 in his career at Oakland, and he also pitches poorly in day games. The Athletics are 7-2 in Gonzalez's last 9 home starts. The Red Sox are now 1-11 in their last 12 road games overall. Oakland is an improved team and I believe this is a very fair value on a pitcher like Gonzalez at home against a scuffling lineup. Take Oakland.
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04-20-11 | San Francisco Giants +110 v. Colorado Rockies | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Francisco Giants have taken the first two games in this series. They will look to sweep the series with Matt Cain on the hill. You could make a good argument that Cain is one of the top three or four pitchers in the National League right now. I think we are getting some value because the public will think the Rockies will avoid the sweep. Normally I might buy that, but Matt Cain is a much better pitcher than De La Rosa and I love getting the Giants at plus money. Cain has pitched well in Colorado before. The Giants are 17-4 in Cain's last 21 road starts (81%). Take the Giants.
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04-19-11 | Detroit Tigers -109 v. Seattle Mariners | 3-13 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners are not a good baseball team at all. The Mariners are just 5-12 so far this year, and I have a feeling they will have one of the worst records in all of baseball this year. The Tigers are a decent team, and the lineup is starting to come around. Phil Coke is on the mound for Detroit in this one, and he has been extremely good in his first two starts. Coke has pitched 13 and 2/3 and allowed just 6 hits and two runs. Doug Fister is pitching for Seattle. The Mariners are just 7-21 in Fister's last 28 starts. The Tigers have the much better lineup. I'll take Detroit in this one.
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04-19-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | 15-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Runline Rout* Colby Lewis has developed into a very solid major league starter. The Rangers are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. Matt Palmer is pitching for the Angels, and he has never been proven to be a consistent starting pitcher. Palmer doesn't have any dominant strikeout pitch, and the Rangers lineup should be able to hit him pretty well. The Angels have hit the ball fairly well this year, but I think they'll come back down to earth. I consider their lineup one of the weakest in the American League. I like the Rangers to win this game by a comfortable margin.
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04-19-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Florida Marlins -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 120 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Mismatch BEATDOWN* Josh Johnson has an ERA of 2.89 in his career at home. The Pittsburgh Pirates have started the year by winning some games on the road, but I don't expect it to continue. In fact, I think the Pirates recent success on the road gives us a good value on the runline here. Paul Maholm has been pretty good at home in his career, but his road ERA is 5.12. The Pirates are 1-10 in Maholm's last 11 road starts. The Pirates are 1-6 in their last 7 games against the Marlins. Josh Johnson is one of the best pitchers in the game. I think the Pirates come back down to earth in this one. Take the Marlins -1.5.
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04-19-11 | Houston Astros v. New York Mets -125 | 6-1 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline Play of the Day* The New York Mets have been one of the worst teams in the majors so far this year, but I think this is a good spot to play them. Wandy Rodriguez has been bad on the road in his career, and the Mets have hit him extremely well. Wandy has a 3.48 ERA at home in his career and 5.12 ERA on the road. The Astros are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts against the Mets. Houston has been hitting the ball pretty well of late, but I don't expect that to continue. I think Houston may well have the worst lineup in the National League. I think Niese is a battler on the mound, and I expect the Mets to win this one.
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04-19-11 | Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 0-11 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Totals Takedown* Neither of these team's is hitting the baseball well at all right now, and I think the value is on the under in this game once again. The under is 16-5 in the Twins last 21 games. The under is 7-3 in the Orioles last 10 home games. Carl Pavano has been solid in his last couple outings, and Jake Arrieta is a solid young pitcher. Justin Morneau is questionable for this game with the flu, and Mauer is still out of the lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 15 mph, which should help. Take the under here.
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04-19-11 | Chicago White Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays don't have a good lineup at all this year, and their key hitter, Johnny Damon, is out right now. John Danks is a pretty good pitcher, and I don't expect the Rays to be able to put up many runs against Danks. James Shields is on the hill for the Rays, and he is a much better pitcher at home. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0-1 in Danks' last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in Vic Carapazza's last 4 games as the umpire as well, so that doesn't hurt. Take the under.
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04-18-11 | Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers +122 | 2-4 | Win | 122 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers got a big win over the Cardinals thanks to Matt Kemp's home run on Sunday. The Braves lost at home to the Mets, and they traveled across the country late Sunday. The last couple years the Braves have had a good record overall, but they haven't been good on the road. This Dodgers team is a little better than most give them credit for, and Ted Lilly is a decent starting pitcher. The Braves are just 1-6 in their last 7 against an NL West team. I think this is a tough spot for the Braves. I'll take the Dodgers as a healthy underdog here.
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04-18-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals will actually be battling for first place in the AL Central in this series. Both teams are certainly exceeding expectations by a huge margin. I expect both to come down to earth over the season, but they do seem to be improving. Kyle Davies is one of my favorite pitchers to fade, but Carlos Carrasco hasn't been good on the road either. I think this total is too low. Davies has an ERA of 5.80 against Cleveland in his career, and his ERA at home as a Royal is 5.87. Carrasco and Davies squared off last year and the final was 11-4. While I'm not sure the total will reach 15 this time, I do think the over is the play here.
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04-18-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Play of the Day* The Pirates beat the Reds 7-6 yesterday thanks to a poor performance from Edinson Volquez. In Game One of this series the Pirates beat the Reds 6-1, only to see the Reds bounce back with an 11-2 win in game two. I expect the Reds to bounce back with a big win again on Monday night. Travis Wood is on the hill for Cincinnati, and I think he is a very good young pitcher. Wood pitched once against the Pirates last year and allowed just 2 hits and no runs. Kevin Correia starts for the Padres, and his ERA at Great American Ballpark is above 6. Keep in mind, the Pirates are just 14-53 in their last 67 road games, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them get blown out here. I like the Reds -1.5.
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04-18-11 | Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Francisco Lirano actually pitched well most of the game in his last outing. He had one bad inning where the Royals strung together a bunch of bloop hits, but overall he looked better. The Orioles aren't hitting well right now, but they are definitely playing some very good defense. Justin Morneau missed Sunday's game with the flu, and he may well miss Monday's game as well. The Twins lineup is already without Joe Mauer. The under is 14-3 in the Twins last 17 games overall. The under is 34-16-1 in the Orioles last 51 against a left-handed pitcher. Take the under in this one.
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04-18-11 | Chicago White Sox +122 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The White Sox haven't been playing well of late, but I think this is a good spot for them. Edwin Jackson is facing his old team, and the last time he showed up in Tampa Bay against the Rays he threw a no hitter for the Diamondbacks last June. No one on this Tampa Bay team has had success against Jackson in the past, and the Rays may be without Johnny Damon in this one. Damon injured a finger on Sunday and said it was "very sore" later in the day. This Tampa Bay lineup isn't strong to start with, and without him they would be very weak. David Price is a very good pitcher, but he hasn't fared well against the White Sox. The Rays are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts against the White Sox. I think the White Sox win this one because of their strong lineup.
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04-17-11 | San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Over Play of the Day* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open, especially when the weather is hot with low humidity. The roof is expected to be open tomorrow with 90 degree heat and almost no humidity. Expect the ball to travel extremely well in this game. Bumgarner is struggling badly with his control this year and he can give up the long ball. Enright has struggled at home, especially with the roof open. While Saturday's game stayed under the total, I think this game will be a very high scoring game. Take the over.
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04-17-11 | Detroit Tigers v. Oakland A's -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 135 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Run Line Play of the Day* The Oakland Athletics have Trevor Cahill on the mound Sunday. Cahill has been terrific at home the last couple years. The A's are 20-8 in his last 28 home starts overall. Brad Penny has been poor on the road in his career, especially in the last couple years. The Tigers aren't hitting the ball well at all now, and I don't think they'll do much against Cahill. I think this is a solid value on the A's to win by at least two. I'll take the better starting pitcher. Take Oakland -1.5.
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04-17-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Seattle Mariners are a terrible hitting team. Other than Ichiro, they really don't have anyone on their team who scares the opposition much at all. Kansas City isn't better than average at the plate, and Michael Pineda has shown to be a very good young pitcher for the Mariners. Pineda should have the upper hand facing the Mariners for the first time. Jeff Francis has his command working very well so far this year, and the Royals may have gotten a good value when they picked him up. The under is 35-17-5 in Brian Runge's last 47 games behind the plate, and he is the umpire in this one. Take the under.
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04-17-11 | Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Twins lineup simply isn't the same without Mauer in the middle of it. Jeremy Hellickson is a very good young pitcher for the Rays. Hellickson has an ERA of just 3.00 at home in his young career. Brian Duensing is a decent pitcher, and we all know the Rays offense has been terrible this year without Longoria. The under is 22-4 in the Rays last 26 games overall. Both teams are missing their best hitter, and I think this is the type of game where both starter's take control early. Take the under here.
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04-17-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Early Bird* Doug Eddings is behind the dish in this one, and there isn't a better umpire to have behind the plate if you want an 'under'. The Red Sox are still struggling to hit the ball well, and Eddings will have a wide strike zone. The under is 15-5-1 in Eddings last 21 games behind the plate. Jon Lester is pitching the Sox, and he has looked much better in his last couple outings. Lester is great at home, and the under is 4-1 in his last 5 starts against Toronto. I expect this one to stay under the total.
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04-17-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Blowout* The Cincinnati Reds are a much better team than the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates took game one in this series, but the Reds won game two 11-2. Edinson Volquez settled down nicely in his performance against San Diego earlier this week. Jeff Karstens has never proven to be an effctive starting pitcher in the majors. The Pirates are 1-9 in Karstens last 10 road starts. The Pirates are 0-4 in Karstens last 4 starts against the Reds. The Reds are 6-1 in Volquez's last 7 home starts. I expect a comfortable win for the Reds here.
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04-16-11 | San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 10 | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field becomes a hitter's paradise with the roof open. The Chase Field website says the roof is expected to be open in this one. We have two pitchers who are extremely capable of getting hit around in this matchup as well. Barry Zito is struggling in a big way with his control right now, and I think he'll get punished by this DBack offense if that continues on Saturday. Joe Saunders was lit up by the Cincinnati Reds in his last start with the roof open at home, and I think that is likely again here. The over is 4-1-1 in Zito's last 6 starts against Arizona. I expect a high scoring affair here. Take the over.
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04-16-11 | San Diego Padres -1.5 v. Houston Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Mound Mistmatch* Nelson Figueroa is a journeyman who has never settled in at any particular spot in his career. Figueroa has given up 6 runs and 5 runs in his first two starts this year for the Astros. He doesn't have great stuff, and he often struggles with his control. Mat Latos is a very good young pitcher, and he has great numbers against Houston. Latos has pitched 16 innings in his short career against Houston and he has yet to allow a run. In his one start at Houston he allowed just 2 hits in 8 innings. I don't see the Astros getting many runs here, and I think San Diego can get to Figueroa. Take the Padres -1.5.
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04-16-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox are slumping in a big way right now, but JoJo Reyes is the type of pitcher that they should be able to hit. Reyes is a youngster who doesn't have any overpowering pitch to put away hitters. Josh Beckett has pitched well so far this year, but the Jays have been a thorn in his side in the past. Beckett's ERA against the Jays in his career is 7.03. This is a day game and Reyes has a terribly 7.07 ERA in his day starts. These Boston bats are too good to stay silenced forever, and I think they'll bust out here. At the same time, the Jays should score quite a few as well. I like the over.
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04-15-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | 2-8 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF Bookie SMASHER* Zach Britton is the top pitching prospect in the Orioles organization, and he is one of the best in the majors. In his first two starts in the major leagues he has given up a total of just one run. He shut down the mighty Texas Rangers lineup in his last start. Justin Masterson has been very good at home over the years. His ERA at home is 3.83 in his career. The Indians don't have a very good lineup, but they are playing great defense. The Orioles defense has been tremendous this year. The under is 13-5 in the Orioles last 18 games overall. The under is 6-1 in Masterson's last 7 starts overall. The under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two. I like this one to stay under the posted total.
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04-14-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals -129 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline Value Play* I'll be the first to admit I typically don't like betting on a guy like Bruce Chen. Chen is a journeyman who has the potential to pitch a solid game here or there and then get blown up, but he has looked decent this year. The other primary reason I am betting this game is Doug Fister and the Mariners are terrible on the road. I believe the Mariners will be one of the worst teams in baseball this year. The Mariners are 28-62 in their last 90 road games. The Mariners are 3-13 in Fister's last 16 road starts. The Royals are 4-1 in Chen's last 5 home starts. The Royals are slowly improving, and I think they'll win this game.
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04-14-11 | Florida Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -125 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Big Bounceback Spot* The Atlanta Braves bats were silenced by Josh Johnson last night. Johnson nearly no-hit the Braves. Ricky Nolasco will pitch for the Marlins on Thursday, and the Braves have fared well against Nolasco in the past. Nolasco's ERA at Turner Field is almost exactly 5. The Marlins are 2-5 in Nolasco's last 7 starts in Atlanta. Brandon Beachy is a solid young starter for the Braves, and I think the Braves have the better lineup of these two teams. Don't forget the Braves have typically had one of the best home field advantages of any team in baseball. I like Atlanta to win this one.
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04-14-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. New York Yankees OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Phil Hughes has not been good at all this year. Hughes hasn't been able to put anyone away. In fact, Hughes has just one strikeout through two starts. This Baltimore lineup has struggled a bit so far this year, but they have a ton of talent and I think they could bust out at any point. On the other side, Arrieta is a pretty decent young pitcher, but I don't expect him to shut down this very good Yankees lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. Phil Hughes has trouble with the long ball, and he hasn't fared well at Yankee Stadium. The over is 14-5 in his last 19 starts at home. The over is also 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts against Baltimore. Take the over.
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04-14-11 | Milwaukee Brewers -108 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Trend Bashing Moneyline Play* The Milwaukee Brewers are now 41-13 in their last 54 games against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Anytime I can get the Brewers at essentially even money against the Pirates, I have a hard time not biting. Randy Wolf is 8-3 in his career against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are just 3-11 in Paul Maholm's last 14 starts against Milwaukee. Even if we call the pitching matchup even, the Brewers definitely have the better lineup. Fielder has started the season hot, and Braun has hit Maholm well in the past. I'm not going to fight the trend here. Take the Brewers.
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04-14-11 | Colorado Rockies -108 v. New York Mets | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Early Bird Special* This will be the second game of a doubleheader in New York on Thursday afternoon. One of the main reasons I like this game is the Rockies appear to have the edge when it comes to depth. Colorado has several guys that have a bit of a platoon, and I think they'll be hurt less by lineup changes in the second game. I would expect Beltran, and maybe even Wright or Reyes to be out of the second game for the Mets. Jorge De La Rosa has been a fast starter in the last few years, and no one on this Mets team has had much luck against him in the past. I like the Rockies in game two.
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04-13-11 | St.Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 15-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* Chase Field once again showed how friendly it is to hitters when the roof is open last night. The DBacks won 13-8 in a game with Chris Carpenter as the starter for the Cardinals. I've cashed in twice with the over in this series, and I'm going to try for a sweep here. The dry heat causes the ball to carry in the desert air and it is a huge boost to the over. Jake Westbrook hasn't pitched well on the road. The over is 4-1 in his lats 5 road starts. The over is 5-2-1 in Kennedy's last 8 home starts. Take the over.
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04-13-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Houston Astros UNDER 7.5 | 9-5 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Wandy Rodriguez is absolutely terrific at home, and Carlos Zambrano is a much better pitcher on the road. The umpire in this one, Paul Emmel, has a wide strike zone, and typically calls quite a few 'under' games. The trends in this one are extremely impressive. The under is 6-0 in Rodriguez's last 6 home starts against the Cubs. The under is 12-2 in Zambrano's last 14 road starts against the Astros. The under is 32-14-2 in the last 48 meetings between these two teams in Houston. I expect a pitcher's duel in this one. Take the under.
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04-13-11 | Milwaukee Brewers -117 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Shawn Marcum is a pitcher I'm pretty high on. Marcum has solid stuff and he has pretty good control as well. Kevin Correia pitched poorly in a great pitchers park last year in San Diego, and I think his first couple starts a bit of an aberration. I think Marcum is the better pitcher. The Brewers have had the Pirates number over the last few years. Milwaukee is 40-13 in their last 53 games against the Pirates. The Pirates are 36-82 in their last 118 games against a right-handed starter. I like the Brewers to win this one.
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04-13-11 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Washington Nationals | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value Play* Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. John Lannan isn't a bad pitcher, but he has been terrible against the Phillies in his career. The Nationals are 1-10 in his last 11 starts against Philadelphia. The Nationals are 0-7 in his last 7 home starts against the Phillies. Twice last year Halladay and Lannan squared off and the Phillies won 11-1 and 8-0 in those two games. I'm not going to overthink this game. The Phillies have the better offense, the far better pitcher, and I think this is a good value on the runline. Take Philly -1.5.
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04-13-11 | Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Early Bird Total* I unsuccessfully played the under in this matchup last night, but I think Thursday afternoon's game is likely to be lower scoring. Both teams have struggled against left-handers, and both pitchers in this game are high quality left-handed starters. The Athletics are hitting less than .200 against lefties this year, and the White Sox are only scoring 3 runs per game against lefties. The under is 4-1 in Danks' last 5 starts against Oakland. The under is 9-4 in Anderson's last 13 road starts. The under is 25-10-1 in these two teams last 36 meetings in Chicago. Take the under.
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04-13-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins -1.5 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Runline* The Minnesota Twins are a fairly solid team, and I think they are much better than Kansas City at this point. Kyle Davies is a pitcher I like to fade pretty often. Davies is capable of getting beat up on any given outing, and the Twins have fared well against him in the past. Mauer and Kubel are both hitting better than .400 against Davies. Liriano hasn't been good this year, but the Royals have struggled with him in the past, and I think he'll bounce back in this game. The Royals are terrible against lefties. In fact, KC is 8-29 in their last 37 road games against a lefty. Take Minnesota -1.5 here.
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04-12-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 | 0-2 | Win | 104 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* The Los Angeles Angels have a very poor offense this year. Fausto Carmona has fared extremely well in the past against the Angels. Torii Hunter is just 5 for 28 in his career against Carmona. Dan Haren has been one of the best first-half starters in the league for the last few years. The Angels have made it a habit to not give Haren much run support at all. The under is 8-0-1 in Haren's last 9 starts overall. The under is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings between these two. Barrett is the umpire in this one, and he leans slightly toward the under. I like the under in this game.
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04-12-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Weather Factors Over Play* Chase Field is a whole different ballpark when the roof is open. On a warm day with low humidity the ball travels extremely well in the desert. Last night it was a little cooler than it will be tonight, and there were three home runs last night. Don't be surprised if there are three or more home runs in this one. Chris Carpenter is a very good pitcher, but he has the tendency to get frustrated easily, and I could see these young DBacks getting to him a bit. On the other side, Galarraga makes his first home start, and I don't think he will be well-suited to this park. He was in a pitcher's park in Detroit the last few years, and he will find this ballpark a whole different story. I like the over in this one.
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04-12-11 | Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Trevor Cahill is one of the better pitchers in the American League. Cahill has great command and he is a bulldog on the mound. Edwin Jackson is a streaky pitcher, and he has started the season red hot. Neither of these teams has a terrific lineup. The under is 5-0 in Oakland's last 5 games overall. The under is 4-1 in Cahill's last 5 starts against the White Sox. The under is also 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings between these teams. I expect a game with some very good starting pitching here. Take the under.
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04-12-11 | Florida Marlins +161 v. Atlanta Braves | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* Chris Volstad is on the hill for the Marlins, and he has been very good against Atlanta in his career. Volstad has 2.84 ERA in his three starts at Turner Field. Volstad is also a fast starter. He has a 3.84 ERA in April. I believe the Braves are being overvalued right now. The Braves lineup isn't that impressive. Tommy Hanson has some very good stuff, but he has been having a lot of trouble locating his pitches. The Marlins are 4-1 in Volstad's last 5 starts against Atlanta. I think this is a very good price on Florida. Take the underdog here.
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04-12-11 | Texas Rangers -125 v. Detroit Tigers | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers have been the best team in the majors so far this year. C.J. Wilson has come out in his first two starts and shown he is ready to be the number one starter for the Rangers. Brad Penny has struggled mightily in his first couple starts this year. Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, and Mike Napoli all have great numbers off Penny in their careers. Wilson has been underrated by the books for quite a while now. The Rangers are 27-10 in his last 37 starts. They are 17-5 in his last 22 starts against a team with a losing record. I like the Rangers here.
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04-11-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers +102 v. San Francisco Giants | 6-1 | Win | 102 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* Clayton Kershaw is a very good young pitcher. Madison Bumgarner is an extremely talented young pitcher. Kershaw has developed and matured as a Major League pitcher, and I think Bumgarner still needs to do that. Kershaw held the Giants to just one run a few days ago, and I think he'll pitch well again in this pitcher's ballpark. The Dodgers lineup is slightly better than the Giants, and we are getting a possible CY Young candidate at plus money here. I really like the Dodgers in this one.
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04-11-11 | Cincinnati Reds v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Late Night Bailout* The Cincinnati Reds have one of the better offenses in all of baseball. With Phillips, Votto, Rolen, Gomes, and Bruce they have plenty of guys in the middle of the order who can make you pay with one swing of the bat. Mat Latos has been injured and will make his first start in this one. Latos is very good, but he could be a little rusty in his first start back. Edinson Volquez is on the hill for Cincinnati, and he has been very erratic this year. Volquez often struggles to find the strike zone. Petco is definitely a pitcher's park, but with two starting pitcher's who have significant question marks in this one I am taking the over.
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04-11-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field becomes a hitter's dream when the roof is open. The low humidity helps the ball carry extremely well. One would think the roof will be on Monday night with a forecast of 75 degrees and sunny. Kyle McClellan and Barry Enright are both inconsistent pitchers, and I think they will get hit around pretty good in this one. It is quite normal for games to finish 10-8 like the DBacks game against the Reds did on Sunday when the roof is open. The Cardinals hitters have struggled this year, but with Matt Holiday back in the lineup they should improve quite a bit. Take the over.
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04-11-11 | Chicago Cubs -115 v. Houston Astros | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline Cash Play* The Houston Astros simply aren't a good team this year. The Astros lineup doesn't strike fear in anyone. The Cubs have a decent lineup and a fairly good bullpen as well. Houston has a decent starting rotation, but Nelson Figueroa, their worst starter, is starting in this game. Ryan Dempster has been solid on the road in the past, and I expect a solid effort out of him in this one. Based on the Astros roster, I think the short price on the Cubs here is a great value. Take the Cubs in this one.
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04-11-11 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 16-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Play of the Day* The Boston Red Sox started the year 0-6 and everyone started jumping ship on them. This is still a very good baseball team. Tampa Bay has been the worst hitting team in all of baseball by a long way, and I don't expect them to light up Matsuzaka in this one. None of the current Rays hitters have good career stats against Dice K. Hellickson is a great young prospect for the Rays, but he has been much better at home. Hellickson is also more prone to the long ball than Dice K, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 15-20 mph here. I like the Red Sox to win big here.
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04-10-11 | Cincinnati Reds -107 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 8-10 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The Cincinnati Reds are a pretty solid team this year. Mike Leake started the season out very well last year, and his numbers are actually a lot better on the road than they are at home. The Reds teed off on Joe Saunders twice last year. Arizona is just 3-9 in Saunders' last 12 starts overall. The Reds are 8-1 in their last 9 games in Arizona. Leake is just as good of a pitcher as Saunders and the Reds have the better lineup. I like the value on the Reds here. Take the Reds moneyline in this matchup.
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04-10-11 | St. Louis Cardinals +137 v. San Francisco Giants | 6-1 | Win | 137 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* I think this is a case of the Giants being overvalued and the Cardinals being undervalued a bit. The Cardinals clearly aren't that great right now, but with Barry Zito on the hill I think the Cardinals have a good shot in this game. The Giants are just 1-6 in their last 7 against St. Louis when Zito is pitching. Zito is very inconsistent and he often walks far too many batters. Pujols and Berkman both have good numbers against Zito in their careers. I like getting St. Louis at this good of a price. Take the underdog here.
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04-10-11 | Oakland A's v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland A's have a poor offense that struggles to manufacture runs. They also lack a real power hitter. Minnesota can score some runs at times, but Brandon McCarthy has the stuff to shut them down. A big reason I like this play so much is the home plate umpire in this one. Bill Miller is behind the dish here and he has been an under machine in the last couple years. The under is 54-24-6 in his last 84 games behind home plate. Both pitchers should be getting the corners in this one. I expect this one to stay under the posted total.
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