|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-29-17||Rockies v. Diamondbacks -136||7-6||Loss||-136||17 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zack Greinke here. Greinke has been much better so far this year than last. Greinke has a swinging strike rate of 12.9% so far this year, which is the highest of his career. That obviously won't stay that high, but still it shows that his stuff has had some good bite this season.
Tyler Anderson is a decent lefty for Colorado, but Arizona is excellent against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against left handed starters. Arizona will probably finish the season in the top five in the majors in OBP against lefties for the second straight season.
The Rockies offense is good, but they aren't great. Colorado isn't completely healthy, and the Rockies have been winning a lot of games because of their improved pitching. I think Arizona has a big pitching advantage here.
The Diamondbacks are 19-7 in their last 26 home games. They are 8-3 in Greinke's last 11 home starts. The Rockies are 1-6 in Anderson's last 7 road starts.
|04-29-17||White Sox +158 v. Tigers||6-4||Win||158||12 h 16 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on White Sox Moneyline* The Chicago White Sox shouldn't be this kind of an underdog against the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is without Miguel Cabrera and JD Martinez. That's two of their top three hitters out of the lineup. That's especially important since Cabrera and Martinez are excellent against lefties and Derek Holland starts for the White Sox in this one.
Derek Holland is a mediocre starter, and there is no doubt Detroit has the starting pitching advantage with Michael Fulmer on the mound. That isn't the only factor in the game though. Too many bettors handicap only the starting pitching matchup.
The Tigers have what is arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. The White Sox bullpen ranks in the top five in the majors in all the advanced statistical categories so far this year. The White Sox defense is also better than the Tigers.
This kind of price is just way too much to overlook. Detroit isn't very good right now, and they can't be laying this number.
Take the White Sox.
|04-27-17||Padres v. Diamondbacks -1.5||2-6||Win||120||20 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The San Diego Padres are one of, if not the worst team in baseball this year. San Diego starts Jered Weaver here, and at this stage of his career he is terrible.
Weaver has a 3.91 ERA this year, but don't let that fool you. Weaver has been unbelievably fortunate so far this season. Opponents have a .182 batting average on balls in play against him. That's completely unsustainable since the average is nearly .300. Also, Weaver has stranded 91% of runners so far this year. That is also unsustainable in the long run.
Taijuan Walker is showing signs of improving this year. He has elite stuff and if he can command all of his pitches, his upside is huge.
The Padres offense is one of the worst in baseball. Arizona's offense is solid.
The Diamondbacks have won 8 of their 13 home games by at least 2 runs so far this year. Arizona at plus money on the run line is a good value here.
Take Arizona -1.5.
|04-27-17||Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7.5||5-1||Win||100||14 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been awful against left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching so far this year. Last year, they were dead last in the majors in that same statistic against lefties. Matt Moore isn't a particularly great lefty, but this is a very good pitchers park, and the Dodgers don't hit those lefties well to start with.
Julio Urias is going to be a star for the Dodgers. How soon? Likely sooner than you would think. Urias was very good in his rookie year last year despite being 19 years old. His stuff is electric and he'll be up against a Giants lineup that is badly banged up. The Giants lineup as it stands right now is one of the five worst in the majors.
It's a get away day which makes me lean more toward the under with some key players possibly getting the day off. Also, Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and the under is 86-50 in his last 136 games behind home plate.
Take the under.
|04-26-17||Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7||3-4||Push||0||14 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have a great rivalry. These two teams bring it every time they meet up with each other. While the Giants haven't been good so far this year, we have seen a much better Giants team show up in the first two games of this series.
Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller ranks second out of more than 80 umpires in the majors in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. The under is cashing at a 56% clip in Miller's last 300 games behind home plate. You won't find a better under umpire than Miller. He has made me a lot of cash in the past few years.
Johnny Cueto has a 2.61 ERA at AT&T Park. Cueto also has a 2.99 ERA in his career in the first half of the season. He starts strong, and I expect a good outing from him against the Dodgers here.
Alex Wood is a solid pitcher, and he goes against a Giants lineup that has all kinds of injury problems right now.
The Dodgers bullpen is elite and the Giants bullpen is no worse than mediocre.
The under is 7-0 in the Dodgers last 7 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in Wood's last 4 starts following a team loss. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Cueto's last 4 starts vs. the Dodgers. A 31-0 angle.
Take the under.
|04-26-17||Twins v. Rangers OVER 9||3-14||Win||100||12 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers meet on Wednesday night in Texas. Both of these offenses are underachieving so far this year, but I expect them to warm up soon.
Texas has the third lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as a team this year. That tells you they are having some really bad luck in general when it comes to batted balls. This is a Rangers team that has typically been good against left-handed pitching.
Hector Santiago and Cole Hamels both carry some ridiculous strand rates and opponents BABIP numbers. Both of these guys are going to regress in a negative way soon.
Hamels' worst month of the year historically is the first month of the season. Santiago has consistently proven himself to not be good enough to be effective as a starter.
We have an over umpire here in David Rackley. The wind will be blowing out at 15-20 mph during this one as well.
Take the over.
|04-25-17||Padres v. Diamondbacks -133||3-9||Win||100||29 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Arizona Moneyline* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Patrick Corbin on Tuesday night. Corbin has thrown the ball better so far this year, and he certainly has some real potential. He has multiple strikeout pitches, and he'll be up against a bad Padres team here.
Clayton Richard has stranded 85% of runners so far this year. That isn't going to continue. It's something that shows clear regression on its way. I think it is likely to pop up here against an Arizona team that ranks in the top five as far as best lineups against left handed pitching.
Arizona is 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a left handed starting pitcher.
Arizona is a surprise team this year, and I do think they have some staying power. I think the Padres are the worst team in the majors. A good price here.
|04-25-17||Blue Jays v. Cardinals -133||6-5||Loss||-133||18 h 9 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The St. Louis Cardinals are a better team than they have shown so far this year. I still think the Cardinals have one of the better offenses in the National League. They haven't proven it yet this year, but I think they will in time.
Michael Wacha has a career 2.61 ERA in the first month of the year. He's at his best early in the season. Wacha has good movement on his pitches, and I expect him to continue to be a solid starter for the Cardinals.
Marco Estrada is past the prime of his career, and I think there will be some value in spots to fade him this year.
The Blue Jays are in a brutal scheduling spot here. They played late Monday night in Anaheim before traveling to St. Louis to play the well-rested Cardinals. Toronto is without Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki here.
The oddsmakers are underrating this St. Louis team. The spot for Toronto and their injuries make this a really good value.
Take St. Louis.
|04-25-17||Royals v. White Sox OVER 8||5-10||Win||100||18 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Dylan Covey only pitched six games above the High A ball level of the minor leagues, and yet he is somehow in the White Sox starting rotation. It makes little sense to me. Covey was tatooed for 8 runs in his last start against the Yankees. As long as he is in the rotation, I think we should assume he'll have a lot of bad games. Covey walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in Double A last year, and he's struck out only 1.74 batters per nine innings so far this year.
The Royals offense isn't good, but I think any big league offense should get a lot of chances to score against Dylan Covey.
Danny Duffy is a quality pitcher, but the White Sox are going to be good against lefties this year. Several guys on this roster are much better against south paws than right handed pitching.
The over is 4-1-2 in Duffy's last 7 road starts. There is early sharp money on the over, and I'm going to agree with them here.
Take the over.
|04-25-17||Rays +135 v. Orioles||2-0||Win||135||16 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Who is Wade Miley to be laying this kind of price against anyone? Miley has finished with a 4.34 ERA or higher in each of his last 3 seasons. So far this year, Miley has a 1.89 ERA. That will change in the near future. Whether it will be in this game or not is harder to predict, but given this price I'll take the Rays.
Miley has stranded a ridiculous 91.6% of baserunners this year. 70% is a decent long term average, so you can see he is due for regression here. Additionally, batters have a .162 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Miley. The average is close to .300, so batters have been hitting it right where the defense is against Miley so far this year. This is something that has to regress over time.
Erasmo Ramirez has great numbers against this Orioles lineup. Baltimore's hitters have a combined .221 average and .243 OBP against Ramirez.
Tampa Bay is better against lefties than righties. I'll take the high price here.
Take Tampa Bay.
|04-24-17||Royals v. White Sox +105||1-12||Win||105||18 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox aren't a very good team, but they will hit left handed pitching better than right handed pitching. They have several guys in their lineup that are much better against lefties than righties.
Jason Vargas has some amazing stats so far this year for the Royals. I don't expect him to be able to keep them going. Vargas has proven himself over the years to be a mediocre pitcher. Not very many guys undergo this kind of transformation when they are 34 years old. Regression is coming for Vargas.
The Royals are a team I'm looking to fade this year. This Royals offense is terrible. Kansas City's bullpen is no longer a strength either.
The White Sox are 4-0 in Miguel Gonzalez's last 4 starts. The Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 road games. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. A 20-0 angle.
Take the White Sox.
|04-23-17||Nationals -145 v. Mets||6-3||Win||100||17 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* Max Scherzer has absolutely dominated the New York Mets in his career. Scherzer has an amazing 1.83 ERA in 69 innings pitched against the Mets in his career. Even more impressive, Scherzer has allowed only three earned runs in his last 35 and 1/3 innings pitched at Citi Field.
Scherzer is dialed in to start the season. His velocity is excellent and his command has been even better than in previous years.
Zack Wheeler has a lot of potential, but this is a guy who has been hit hard by the Nationals in his career, and he is still working his way back from an injury. His career ERA against Washington is 5.05.
The Nationals have the better pitcher, bullpen, and the better lineup.
Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. They are 6-0 in Scherzer's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 0-4 in Wheeler's last 4 home starts. The Mets are 0-4 in Wheeler's last 4 home starts against Washington as well. A 25-0 angle. Take Washington.
|04-23-17||Royals v. Rangers -1.5||2-5||Win||130||12 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rangers -1.5* The Texas Rangers have Yu Darvish on the mound here. Darvish was really disappointed after his last start, and I think we'll see him pitch much better here. He has elite stuff, and he throws his best at the beginning of the season.
Darvish has a tremendous 2.54 ERA in the first month of the season in his career. The Rangers offense is due to hit much better. There are several guys in this lineup that are way too good to keep struggling the way they have so far.
Kansas City's Jason Hammel is a mediocre pitcher and he's backed by a bad offense and a bad bullpen.
Look for the Rangers to run away with this one.
Take Texas -1.5.
|04-23-17||Yankees v. Pirates -120||1-2||Win||100||20 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pittsburgh Pirates are significantly better against left handed pitching than righties. Jordan Montgomery is a decent prospect for the Yankees, but I see this as a tough spot for him. He faces a lineup that makes a lot of hard contact against lefties, and he doesn't have good secondary pitches.
Ivan Nova has been in great form so far this year. Nova has a 2.25 ERA so far this year, and a FIP of 2.90 suggests it hasn't been all about good luck by any means. Nova hasn't walked a single batter so far this year. That kind of control makes a huge difference.
The Pirates are 12-5 in their last 17 games against left handed starters. The Yankees are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
|04-22-17||Marlins -115 v. Padres||6-3||Win||100||25 h 50 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Miami Marlins ML* When I can fade Jered Weaver for just a little more than even money, I'm usually going to do it. I'll take the Marlins here. Straily is a decent pitcher. I rate him at about a big league average starter. Jered Weaver is one of the worst starters in all of baseball.
A guy like Weaver with an 81 mph fastball has to hit his spots perfectly every single time, because no one is worried about him blowing it by them.
San Diego is also at a disadvantage in the bullpen. The Miami bullpen has some good youngsters who I expect to develop into very good relievers.
The Padres also have a much weaker offense than the Marlins. I expect the Padres to be the worst team in baseball this year. Miami isn't a good team, but the Marlins should be competitive and be close to .500 on the season.
The Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. the NL East. I'll fade Weaver here.
|04-22-17||Mariners v. A's UNDER 8||3-4||Win||105||12 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the game today. He'll help both young pitchers in this one. Jharel Cotton has a really high upside, and he is a guy who can be really tough to hit if he gets ahead in the count. Look for him to be ahead in the count more often with a strike caller like Ripperger behind the dish.
Ariel Miranda isn't a special pitcher by any means, but the Oakland A's offense should be one of the worst in the majors this year overall, and they are worse against left-handed pitching than righties. Miranda has enough pitches in his repertoire that he can likely keep the A's to a small amount of runs here.
The under is 4-0-1 in Cotton's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-1 in Miranda's last 5 starts.
Take the under.
|04-22-17||Tigers -103 v. Twins||5-4||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers are much better against left handed pitching than righties. They'll face a subpar lefty in Adalberto Mejia on Saturday afternoon.
Mejia has struggled with his control early in the season, and the Tigers should be able to make him work here. The Tigers got Justin Upton back in the lineup on Friday night, and Detroit is loaded with really good right-handed bats.
Matt Boyd pitched really well in Triple A last year, and he pitched well late in the season in the majors. He has continued that strong performance into this year. Boyd has a solid 3.77 ERA on the year. Boyd has held Twins hitters to a .202 average in 84 career at bats. It's a small sample size, but it is a nice bonus.
This price is too cheap. Detroit is 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left handed starter.
|04-21-17||Blue Jays +133 v. Angels||8-7||Win||133||19 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Toronto Moneyline* The Toronto Blue Jays are certainly a weaker team with Josh Donaldson out of the lineup, but they are still definitely better than they have shown. I think it could do them some good to get away from home right now. Sometimes when you are losing on a consistent basis, getting away from the pressures of playing at home can help a team turn things around.
The Angels are a team I have rated a little lower than the Blue Jays. Alex Meyer is a guy who walks a ton of hitters, and that's a guy I can't lay big money with. Mat Latos isn't a pitcher I love either, but this is a nice price grab on the team with the slightly better bullpen and at least equal offense (even without Donaldson). The Angels have stars, but they don't have depth in the lineup.
I'll look to take advantage of the oddsmakers finally getting too low on this Toronto team. Grab this plus money price.
|04-21-17||Mariners +126 v. A's||1-3||Loss||-100||19 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Seattle Moneyline* The Seattle Mariners are a much better team than they have shown so far this year. Seattle is 1-7 on the road so far this year, and that's why we are getting this price.
Still, Seattle is the much better team. Oakland has one of the worst offenses in the majors. Sean Manaea is definitely a good young starter for the A's, but the Mariners will be one of the best offenses in the majors this year against left handed pitching.
The Mariners are a perfect 5-0 in Hisashi Iwakuma's last 5 starts in Oakland. Iwakuma has a career 3.12 ERA in Oakland.
The bullpens here are pretty similar. The offense of Seattle is so much better though, and I think this game should be at least even money. Grab the nice plus money price on the Mariners.
|04-21-17||Dodgers -125 v. Diamondbacks||5-13||Loss||-125||23 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Dodgers Moneyline* The Diamondbacks are in their first game back from a road trip, and this can be a tough spot for teams. Arizona is better than they were last year, but they aren't as good as their record would indicate. At the same time, the Dodgers are definitely better than their record would indicate.
Alex Wood is more than serviceable and the Dodgers bullpen behind him is one of the best in the majors. Taijuan Walker has potential but he has had issues with the long ball in the past, and Chase Field with the roof open is a hitters paradise.
The Dodgers lineup is excellent against right handed pitching. The price is depressed too much for me to pass on this one.
Take the Dodgers.
|04-21-17||Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5||5-6||Loss||-115||19 h 37 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have both been struggling to score runs of late. While Coors Field is obviously a great hitters park, the weather conditions here for Friday night's game aren't conducive to the ball carrying. The temperature will be in the mid 40's and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph.
Johnny Cueto has a dazzling 2.43 ERA in six career starts at Coors Field. That's one of the best marks you'll ever see from a pitcher with a lot of innings at Coors Field. Cueto has allowed only four runs in his last 22 innings pitched at Coors Field.
Tyler Chatwood has an amazing 2.55 ERA against the Giants in 74 career innings. In two of his last three starts against the Giants, the Giants finished the game with zero runs.
This total is high considering the situation and the pitching matchup. Also, Carlos Gonzalez is questionable for this game.
Some big trends pointing to the under here. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 8-0 in the Rockies last 8 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 during game one of a series. The under is 4-0 in Chatwood's last 4 starts. A combined 41-0 angle.
Take the under.
|04-21-17||Giants -111 v. Rockies||5-6||Loss||-111||18 h 28 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker MISTAKE* The San Francisco Giants have underachieved so far this year. Colorado has overachieved thus far. This is the time of the year where you can start taking advantage of overreactions to results from the first 15 or 16 games of the season.
Johnny Cueto is a top 20 pitcher in the majors. Tyler Chatwood isn't even a top 100 pitchers in the majors. This is a pitching mismatch. While Chatwood has been great on the road, he has a 4.93 ERA at Coors Field in his career.
Cueto has allowed only 4 runs in his last 22 innings pitched at Coors Field. He has a career 2.43 ERA at Coors Field.
Carlos Gonzalez is questionable with an injury here. The Giants have Buster Posey back in the lineup now. The Rockies have a .201 average this year against right handed pitching.
I think this line should be about 20 points higher. Take San Francisco.
|04-21-17||Tigers -114 v. Twins||3-6||Loss||-114||25 h 31 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Detroit* The Detroit Tigers start Justin Verlander here, and I think he'll stop their recent losing streak. Verlander was rocked in his last outing in Cleveland, but he has a good track record against the Twins. In 9 career starts at Target Field against the Twins, Verlander has a stellar 2.35 ERA.
Hector Santiago isn't nearly as good as he has pitched so far this year. Santiago has been a below average pitcher through his career.
Santiago has been extremely lucky. That can be seen through opponents .222 batting average on balls in play against him. Compare that with Verlander's .340 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and you can see who has been lucky and unlucky so far this year. They should regress to the mean.
The Tigers are excellent against lefties. Detroit is 7-0 in their last 7 games against left handed starters. The Tigers are 7-2 in Verlander's last 9 road starts against Minnesota.
|04-21-17||Cubs -1.5 v. Reds||6-5||Loss||-105||16 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cubs -1.5* The Chicago Cubs have clearly underachieved so far this year. This team is going to be amazing once again, and their prices have come down slightly. The Cincinnati Reds are overachieving in a big way, and I do not expect that to continue. This Reds team has way too many problems to be an above .500 team.
Jon Lester is one of the most consistent lefties in the game, and the Reds struggle against lefties. In each of the last four years, the Reds have finished with a lower average against lefties than righties. They are 16-35 in their last 51 against left-handed starters.
The Cubs are 8-1 in Lester's last 9 starts vs. the Reds. The Cubs are 86-41 in their last 127 against the NL Central.
The Cubs are better in every facet of the game.
Take the Cubs -1.5.
|04-20-17||Diamondbacks -108 v. Padres||1-4||Loss||-108||28 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Arizona Moneyline* The Arizona Diamondbacks are a much better team than the San Diego Padres. Anytime I can get Arizona at this cheap of a price against the Padres, I'll have a hard time passing it up.
In this particular matchup, Clayton Richard toes the rubber for the Padres. Richard has a long track record in the majors, and there's nothing that suggests he'll be able to keep his 3.60 ERA for very long. Richard is a worse than average lefty, and he is facing a Diamondbacks team that excels at hitting left-handed pitching.
Arizona finished in the top three in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties last year. They should finish near the top again this year.
Patrick Corbin definitely has a higher upside than Richard, and he gets to pitch in a park that is kind to fly ball pitchers here.
Take Arizona at this low price.
|04-20-17||Angels v. Astros UNDER 8.5||Top||1-2||Win||100||21 h 18 m||Show|
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Houston Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound on Thursday. McCullers is a guy with a really high upside. I think he has the stuff to be an All Star every year and contend for a Cy Young award. McCullers has a career 2.18 ERA at home.
The Angels lineup isn't deep. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and Albert Pujols is hitting the ball well, but in general this team isn't very good down the order.
Matt Shoemaker starts here for the Angels. Shoemaker is the Angels best pitcher, at least in my opinion. He has a deceptive delivery and mixes up his pitches well. The Astros offense is missing Carlos Correa right now, and he is considered doubtful for this game.
Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my umpire spreadsheet says he is a decent under umpire. It's a Wednesday get away day game and that's definitely a positive for the under as well.
Take the under big!
|04-19-17||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5||2-4||Win||100||20 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers are terrible against left handed pitching. This offense is one of the best in the majors against righties, but against lefties they are a bottom six or eight offense in baseball.
Tyler Anderson has a solid track record in the minors and in the majors last year, and I expect him to pitch better than he has shown so far this season. Look for positive regression on the way for Anderson.
Clayton Kershaw dominates the game like no other pitcher. Kershaw is at his best at Dodger Stadium and this Rockies lineup isn't completely healthy right now. They are better against right handed pitching as well.
The under is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 20-9 in the Dodgers last 29 home games vs. a left handed starter.
Take the under.
|04-19-17||Diamondbacks -128 v. Padres||0-1||Loss||-128||20 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Zack Greinke has a superb 1.90 ERA in 10 career starts in San Diego. Greinke loves pitching in this park, and the Padres have what I believe is the worst team in baseball this season.
Jhoulys Chacin starts here for the Padres. Chacin had a 7.71 ERA in spring training, and his ERA in the regular season so far is 7.80. His WHIP has been above 2 consistently through the spring and in the regular season.
Arizona's offense is much better than the San Diego offense. Greinke gives them a massive advantage at the starting pitcher spot. The Diamondbacks bullpen isn't good, but the Padres pen isn't much better. This is a good value on the moneyline.
Arizona is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. I'll grab the Diamondbacks here as a play on Greinke and a fade of a Padres team that I expect to be awful all year.
|04-19-17||Tigers +160 v. Rays||7-8||Loss||-100||3 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Detroit Moneyline* I like Chris Archer, so this isn't a game I had circled to play Detroit, but this line is too high to pass.
I rate Detroit as the better team between these two. The Tigers have a much more powerful lineup, and I'll be surprised if they don't finish the year with a better record than Tampa Bay. Jordan Zimmermann had a down year last year due to injuries, but he has a long history of being a quality pitcher. I think we are grabbing the better team at implied odds of 38.5% of winning this game.
Tampa Bay is 0-7 in their last 7 home games with Archer starting against a team with a winning record. Detroit is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The Rays are 0-4 in Archer's last 4 starts vs. Detroit.
An inflated price here. Take Detroit as a big dog.
|04-19-17||Red Sox -105 v. Blue Jays||0-3||Loss||-105||17 h 12 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have what is arguably the best lineup in baseball. Boston is going to score a ton of runs this year. The Red Sox are without Jackie Bradley Jr, but for the most part they are healthy again now after going through some nasty sicknesses for the first week or two of the season.
Toronto's lineup isn't healthy. Josh Donaldson is the best player on this team, and he is out of the lineup due to an injury. The Blue Jays have started the season really badly, and it feels like this thing is unraveling really quickly on the Jays.
Rick Porcello isn't a guy I'm really high on, but he's pitched into some bad luck so far this year. Porcello has good control and that's a lot more than you can say about Francisco Liriano. Liriano has always been shaky with his command and this year he is walking more than 7 batters per nine innings. That's really dangerous against a lineup like this.
The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. They are 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 Wednesday games. Toronto is 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. A 21-0 angle.
|04-18-17||Diamondbacks -120 v. Padres||11-2||Win||100||21 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Arizona* The San Diego Padres should be the worst team in baseball this year. San Diego has issues all over the place. Their starting pitching is just awful. I can't remember the last time I saw a major league team with starting pitching this bad. The Padres aren't good hitters either, and the defense is below average.
Jarred Cosart had a 6.00 ERA in 16 starts last year. Cosart has a 3.86 ERA on the season so far, but that won't continue. Cosart had an ERA of 4.09 and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of an ugly 6.07 in Triple A last year.
Shelby Miller had some serious problems last year, but he looks like a better pitcher to me this season. Miller is much healthier and his velocity is back up. Miller no longer has the strange follow through that he had last season.
Miller has the potential to be very good this year, while Cosart doesn't.
A good price on the better overall team. Take Arizona.
|04-18-17||Rangers -122 v. A's||2-4||Loss||-122||20 h 23 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Texas Rangers should be favored by more than this against the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday night. Yu Darvish takes the hill for the Rangers, and Darvish has some of the best stuff in baseball. If he can stay healthy, expect a really good season out of him this year.
The Rangers are 3-11 in Darvish's last 14 starts against Oakland, which is likely the main reason why this number is so short. I think this gives us an opportunity to take advantage of the low line. A trend like this needs to be taken in the correct context. Texas hasn't hit the ball for Darvish in those games. Darvish has held Oakland hitters to a career .211 batting average, so it hasn't been on him much of the time. A trend like the one listed above isn't likely to be predictive of future results when you find underlying stats like we have in this game.
Andrew Triggs is a soft tosser that relies on weak contact. The Rangers lineup is much better than the A's lineup, and the Rangers obviously have a big starting pitching advantage.
|04-18-17||Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5||6-2||Win||100||15 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Zach Wheeler certainly has potential, but with his kind of injury history and lack of work in the last few years, he is a guy I have to be cautious with.
Zach Eflin just doesn't have good enough stuff to be a good big league pitcher. Eflin struck out only 4.41 batters per nine innings last year. That's an extremely low rate, and his minor league numbers don't show a guy who will strike out many either. Combine that with the fact that Eflin has below average command and you have a guy who isn't very good.
These two teams have a history of scoring a lot of runs against each other. The over is an impressive 70-34-5 in the last 109 games between these two NL East foes.
Given the question marks at pitcher and the lack of a dominant bullpen for either team, I'm taking the over.
|04-17-17||Marlins v. Mariners OVER 8||1-6||Loss||-110||24 h 0 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The Marlins have Koehler slated to pitch this game. In his career, he has a 4.50 ERA on the road. Miranda, who is set to start for the Mariners, is a young pitcher who has been having control problems. His FIP is above 6 this year, which suggests he is fortunate to not have an ever higher ERA this year. I like the over given this combination of subpar starting pitching.
The over is 11-4 in the Marlins last 15 interleague games. The over is 21-7-2 in the Marlins last 30 interleague games. I think this interleague contest will be high scoring as well.
Take the over.
|04-16-17||Cardinals v. Yankees -130||3-9||Win||100||27 h 50 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* St. Louis is off to a really bad start to the season. I think they'll have a tough time turning it around on Sunday night. Michael Pineda is far better than his numbers from last year show. His stuff is good enough to be an ace, but he occasionally can't command his stuff and misses with one in a bad part of the strike zone. The Cardinals haven't been hitting right now, and I think Pineda racks up the strikeouts here.
Even more importantly, I don't trust Adam Wainwright at all here. Wainwright has a 6.35 ERA in his last 18 starts on the road. Wainwright is way past his prime, and he has started giving up the long ball way too often.
The Cardinals bullpen has quite a few question marks, while the Yankees unquestionably have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
This is a good price on the home team.
Take the New York Yankees.
|04-15-17||Tigers v. Indians OVER 7.5||6-13||Win||100||17 h 55 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians have two of the top offenses in the majors. Cleveland should be even better on offense than they were last year. The Indians have a great young leader in Lindor, and Carlos Santana is great at getting on base from the leadoff spot.
Detroit's lineup is excellent as well. Miguel Cabrera has hit into some bad luck in the early going. He's been ripping the ball all over the field, but hitting it right at people. He'll get it going, and so will Victor Martinez. Detroit will score a lot of runs this year.
Justin Verlander has a career 5.37 ERA at Progressive Field. Corey Kluber has a career 4.05 ERA against the Detroit Tigers. Both Verlander and Kluber have been at their worst from an ERA standpoint in the first month of the season over the course of their careers.
The over is 26-5 in the last 31 meetings between these two in Cleveland. The over is 6-1 in Kluber's last 7 vs. Detroit. The over is 9-4 in Verlander's last 13 starts vs. Cleveland.
Take the over.
|04-15-17||Astros v. A's UNDER 8||10-6||Loss||-120||17 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Two excellent young pitchers going against each other in this one. Lance McCullers and Sean Manaea are both guys I have ranked very highly. I think these guys will both have breakout seasons this year. Perception isn't high enough on them yet to have a really low total, but I think this one deserves to be at no higher than 7.
Manaea just struck out 10 in his last start at Texas, and that's a really tough place to pitch. McCullers has been great this year, and he's up against one of the worst offenses in the American League in the Oakland A's.
The under is 19-7 in McCullers' last 26 starts. The under is 6-1 in Manaea's last 7 starts vs. an AL West foe. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two.
Take the under.
|04-15-17||Orioles +138 v. Blue Jays||1-2||Loss||-100||11 h 5 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles are 7-2 on the season thus far. Baltimore certainly has weaknesses, but their bullpen is one of the best in baseball and that's a huge weapon. Toronto's bullpen is below average, and they have very little depth in the pen.
Alec Asher starts for the Orioles here. He is considered a decent prospect. Asher doesn't have elite stuff by any means, but he does limit walks which is very important. Marco Estrada pitches for the Blue Jays. No doubt Estrada gives the Blue Jays an advantage at starter, but I don't think it's a huge one.
Estrada is nearly 35 years old, and I believe he is past his prime. The Baltimore offense is underrated by many. Against right handed pitching, Baltimore is going to score a bunch of runs this year. This lineup is a deep one, and there is power throughout the order.
How can a team playing as poorly as Toronto be laying -150 at most books? It makes little sense to me.
Baltimore is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 on turf. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. They are 0-4 in Estrada's last 4 starts. Baltimore is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 25-0 angle.
I'm taking the nice plus money price.
|04-14-17||Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7||2-8||Loss||-100||18 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants are without Buster Posey right now, and there's no question he is the best hitter on this roster. The Giants lineup isn't great even with Posey, and without him this is a subpar lineup.
Colorado's offense is banged up right now, and the Rockies aren't even close to the same team on the road offensively.
Tyler Anderson has good stuff, and he has been good in his first couple years with the Rockies. I like his ability to induce weak contact and a lot of ground balls.
Johnny Cueto has a career 2.22 ERA in 12 starts vs. the Rockies, so he has really dominated this team. Cueto has a great 2.61 ERA in his career when pitching inside AT&T Park.
Mike Everitt is the umpire here and he ranks in the top ten in the majors in strikes called in the last five years. A good under umpire.
The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a divisional opponent. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. A 16-0 angle.
Take the under.
|04-14-17||Brewers +123 v. Reds||10-4||Win||123||15 h 14 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Moneyline CRUSHER* I rate the Milwaukee Brewers as a little bit better team than the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds stormed out of the gates and now people are believing in them. I'm not. Cincinnati looks like a team that will come down to earth hard to me.
The Reds have been working their bullpen hard so far this year. The youngsters in the pen have been good, but they'll hit some rough patches this year, and the Reds pen is very top heavy.
Cincinnati's offense is a major weakness. They just don't have enough guys that get on base enough outside of Joey Votto.
Scott Feldman is definitely a below average pitcher and he is known for not working deep into games. Tommy Milone isn't all that good either, but I rate him as slightly better than Feldman.
The Brewers lineup is definitely better than the Reds lineup. Milwaukee has some talented young hitters who should surprise to the upside this year.
At worst, this price should be even money, and instead we are catching a nice plus money price. Take Milwaukee.
|04-14-17||Orioles +134 v. Blue Jays||6-4||Win||134||15 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Baltimore* The Toronto Blue Jays have scored 2 runs or less in six of their nine games this year. They are likely to be without star Josh Donaldson for this game. How does a team like that get favored by this much against anyone?
Baltimore isn't a bad team. The Orioles have a great bullpen, and they can hit. Wade Miley isn't the best of starters, so that's a bit of a concern, but Toronto's offense is ice cold and is expected to be without their best player here.
Baltimore has a big bullpen edge and a better lineup. Aaron Sanchez is clearly the better pitcher, but this line is way too high.
|04-13-17||Rangers -119 v. Angels||8-3||Win||100||22 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Texas Rangers ML* Yu Darvish is one of the best pitchers in the American League. Darvish has some nasty stuff and can dominate at any time. The Angels are off to a hot start, but I don't think they are a great team. Texas has a bad bullpen, but that is more than factored into this line.
Yu Darvish has a career ERA of only 2.70 in his 8 starts in Los Angeles. Darvish also has some great day/night splits. Darvish has a solid 3.51 ERA at night, but his day ERA is a stunning 2.74.
Ricky Nolasco is no ace, and the Rangers lineup is better than the Angels. This price has been changed too much by recent events from the Rangers blowing big leads.
If you want to try to avoid the Rangers bullpen, a decent way to do that is play part of this bet as Texas Rangers on the first 5 innings instead of all of it on the whole game.
The Rangers are 6-1 in Darvish's last 7 road starts against the Angels.
|04-13-17||Pirates v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||3-4||Loss||-100||20 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is getting healthy, and I expect big things from them this year. Chad Kuhl doesn't have very good stuff. Kuhl is going to get hard by a lot of teams this year, and I think Boston will be one of them.
Eduardo Rodriguez is very inconsistent, and the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is excellent against lefties. Pittsburgh has some major split differentials against lefties vs. righties, and that is something to keep in mind going forward this year.
Another key factor here is the conditions at Fenway Park. The weather is helpful for the over. The temperature will be 60 degrees with the wind blowing out at 12 mph during the afternoon. The ball should fly well.
Two way above average offenses and two suspect pitchers. I'll take the over.
|04-12-17||Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||12-5||Win||100||16 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox are starting to get healthy on offense. Hanley Ramirez, Xander Boegarts, and Mookie Betts are all back in the lineup. That makes a huge difference, and Boston put up 8 runs last night.
This Boston lineup is one of the best in baseball, and they are scoring to score a bunch of runs this year. Baltimore starts Ubaldo Jimenez here, and Jimenez puts way too many guys on base for my liking. He has an ERA above 6 at Fenway Park in his career as well.
Steven Wright has been much worse at home than on the road, and this Baltimore offense is definitely above average.
Adrian Johnson is the umpire here and he rates in the top ten over umpires in baseball in my umpire database. The wind will be blowing out at about 14 or 15 mph during this game as well, which certainly helps.
Take the over here.
|04-11-17||White Sox v. Indians -1.5||1-2||Loss||-115||14 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* The Cleveland Indians are coming off an ugly series in Arizona. They want nothing more than to take care of business in their home opener on Tuesday. I think a day off on Monday was good for them, and I expect them to be in good shape here on Tuesday afternoon.
There are mismatches are all over the place in this game. James Shields skated by in his first start, but his peripherals were bad in that game. He's 35 years old and his stuff has declined rapidly. I expect another bad season from him. Carlos Carrasco has great raw stuff and I was impressed with his first start of the season in Texas.
The Indians lineup is better than it was last year, and they clearly have the lineup advantage here. The Indians have one of the best bullpens in baseball, while the White Sox bullpen is mediocre.
Good situation here with the Indians coming off an ugly series and facing a very weak starter.
Take Cleveland -1.5.
|04-11-17||Twins v. Tigers OVER 9||1-2||Loss||-120||11 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* There has been some serious sharp action on the over, and I think that makes a lot of sense. Detroit is going to be one of the best in the majors against left handed pitching this year. Hector Santiago is one of the weakest left handed pitchers in the majors.
Matt Boyd is a below average pitcher as well, and the Twins offense should put up a lot of runs this year.
Both bullpens are way below average, so I expect a lot of scoring chances late in this game.
I'm tracking over 1,000 bets so far in this game and 70% of the bets are on the over, but a whopping 99% of the money is on the over.
The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the AL Central.
Take the over.
|04-10-17||Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 8||6-14||Win||100||16 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I'm following a long-term system that has been strong for overs in the first month of the season. When the total is 9 or lower and the temperature is 65 degrees or higher with a wind blowing out at least 7 miles per hour, the over is hitting at an amazing 63.4% in the last ten seasons. This game fits with a total of 8 and a forecast of 73 degrees with the wind blowing out at about 12 mph.
Adam Wainwright had a 7.16 ERA in the first month of the season last year. Wainwright also had an awful 6.18 ERA in 17 road starts last season. He isn't a terrible pitcher now, but he isn't even close to the ace he once was.
Tanner Roark doesn't have dominating stuff, and I expect his numbers to move backward a bit this year. Without a dominating pitch it is hard to sustain the kind of numbers Roark had last year.
This Cardinals offense is coming off a terrible performance on Sunday and I expect much better from them here. The Nationals are improved on offense from a year ago.
Take the over.
|04-10-17||Diamondbacks +135 v. Giants||1-4||Loss||-100||14 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Underdog PERFECTION Play* The Arizona Diamondbacks have started the season red hot. I don't think this team is nearly as good as they are playing right now, but I do think they'll be a good team to back against left handed pitching this year. Arizona was top three in the league in weighted on base average against left handed pitching last year.
The Diamondbacks face a mediocre lefty in this one. Matt Moore doesn't have good swing and miss stuff, and I expect Arizona to hit the ball hard throughout this one.
Taijuan Walker walked only one and struck out 7 in his first start of the season. Walker is healthy after being injured badly all year last year and trying to pitch through it. Walker appears ready for a breakout season.
The Giants are at an offensive disadvantage here and the Giants are one of the few teams who might not have a bullpen advantage against Arizona.
Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 against a lefty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. The DBacks are 5-0 in their last 5. They are also 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. A 25-0 angle.
Take Arizona at this nice plus money price.
|04-09-17||Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11||Top||10-6||Loss||-112||13 h 52 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the series finale on Sunday afternoon. There haven't been many runs scored in the first two games in this series. No one would have expected 2-1 and 4-2 finals at Coors between these two teams. I don't necessarily expect this game to be that low, but I do think 11 is way too high considering all the factors that go into this one.
The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is MUCH better against right handed pitchers. Tyler Anderson is a good young lefty for Colorado. Anderson had a great 3.54 ERA and a 3.59 FIP last year. That suggests there was no luck involved in his strong season. Anderson had a stellar 2.45 ERA in day games started last year. Anderson also had an amazing 1.83 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers.
Kenta Maeda starts for the Dodgers. He's great at getting soft contact, and that works to his advantage here. The Rockies have some key offensive pieces banged up now as well. Maeda has only allowed 4 runs in 17 innings pitched at Coors Field.
The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 starts vs. a team with a 50% or higher win percentage. The under is 4-0 in Maeda's last 4 starts vs. Colorado. The under is 4-0 in Gary Cedarstrom's last 4 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle.
Take the under big. TOP Rated Total of the WEEK
|04-09-17||A's v. Rangers UNDER 9.5||1-8||Win||100||13 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. I track umpires extensively and Kulpa is a big time strike caller. He loves ringing up batters on questionable pitches, and that definitely helps the under in a big way.The under is 211-157 in his last 368 games behind home plate (57.1% unders).
Sean Manaea is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He is going to have a breakout season soon, and it won't surprise me if it is this season. He'll be dealing with a Rangers offense that is without Adrian Beltre. That's key since Beltre is the team's best hitter against lefties.
Martin Perez isn't all that good, but this Oakland offense isn't very good either. Perez has pitched his best in day games, and he'll be helped a lot by Kulpa behind the dish.
Give me a number this high with Kulpa behind home plate and I almost have to take it.
Take the under.
|04-09-17||Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8||8-0||Push||0||11 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Totals that are set relatively low have been very good over bets in the month of April in the last few years.
Let's take a look at a situation that fits this game perfectly. Games totaled at 9 or less where the temperature is at least 65 degrees (77 projected for St Louis Sunday) and the wind is blowing out at least 10 miles per hour (the forecast calls for 20 mph wind out here) have gone over the total at a clip of 60-35 (63.2%) in the past ten years.
It helps that we get Andy Fletcher behind the plate. Fletcher ranks in the bottom ten umpires in the majors in strikes called in the last three seasons.
Scott Feldman is a way below average pitcher, and this Cardinals lineup will be one of the best in the National League.
Take the over.
|04-09-17||Blue Jays v. Rays +102||2-7||Win||102||10 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays* The Toronto Blue Jays start Marco Estrada here. I think he is past his prime, and he was never quite as good as his ERA suggested either. Estrada has benefited from some very low batting average on balls in play for his opponents the last couple seasons.
Jake Odorizzi continues to improve and he has been much better at home than on the road in his career. Odorizzi does a nice job keeping the ball down, and that helps against Toronto's home run hitters.
The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Estrada's last 4 starts vs. Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is much better than they were a year ago, and the Blue Jays are definitely down from last year.
Take Tampa Bay.
|04-09-17||Red Sox v. Tigers +124||7-5||Loss||-100||10 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB DOG of the Day PERFECTION* The Detroit Tigers are home underdogs on Sunday against the Red Sox, and I like the value on Detroit here.
Detroit starts Daniel Norris in this one. Norris has a really high upside. I like the progress he made last year, and he is a guy I'll look to buy low when I get chances this year. Boston obviously has a good lineup, but they have key guys out. Hanley Ramirez is sick with the flu and will miss this game. Xander Boegarts is on the bereavement list and he'll miss this one. Mookie Betts is probable, but he is still less than 100% with the flu.
Rick Porcello is definitely overvalued right now. His Cy Young award last year has led many to rate him far higher than he should be rated. Porcello is a pitch to contact guy and he isn't even close to one of the top ten pitchers in baseball. Detroit is an above average offense.
The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-7 in their last 7 road games. Boston is 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. Detroit is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The Tigers are 4-0 in Norris' last 4 Sunday starts. A 27-0 angle.
|04-08-17||Royals v. Astros -142||Top||7-3||Loss||-142||27 h 47 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Play Oddsmaker ERROR* The Houston Astros have been excellent with Dallas Keuchel on the mound at home. Keuchel had a down year last year, but his advanced statistics suggested he was very unlucky last year. I expect him to be much better this year.
Even with Keuchel pitching poorly last year on relative basis, the Astros are 27-8 in his last 35 home starts.
The Kansas City Royals aren't even close to as good as they were a couple years ago. The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball now instead of one of the best. Houston has one of the better bullpens in the majors.
Houston definitely has the better lineup, with power and speed throughout the order. The Royals lineup is very weak at the bottom of the order.
The Royals are 0-4 in Danny Duffy's last 4 road starts.
This price is too cheap. Lay the price with the home team.
Take Houston big.
|04-08-17||Braves v. Pirates OVER 8||4-6||Win||100||16 h 52 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* R.A. Dickey starts for the Braves in this one. Dickey isn't the worse pitcher you'll find, but he is below average at this stage of his career. The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup should be very good this season. Look for Pittsburgh to have a lot of runners on base against Dickey.
Chad Kuhl starts for the Pirates. Kuhl has below average stuff and relies heavily on limiting walks. This Atlanta lineup is better than most believe. Look for the Braves to score more runs on a consistent basis this year.
Both of these bullpens are worse than the league average, so runs late in the game should be expected. Tom Hallion is the homeplate umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire.
Take the over.
|04-08-17||Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 8.5||4-5||Loss||-110||13 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Kevin Gausman has a superb record against the Yankees in his young career. Gausman has an ERA below 2 against the Yankees, and much of that sample was against a much better Yankees offense than this year's version. Gausman has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him.
Masahiro Tanaka has been very good against the Orioles in his career as well. Tanaka ranked in the top five in the American League in many key pitching statistics last season.
These are two of the top five bullpens in baseball, so I expect the offenses to have a hard time scoring late in this contest. Gibson is the home plate umpire here and he rates as a solid under umpire.
Take the under.
|04-08-17||Red Sox v. Tigers -104||1-4||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox are going to be missing some very key pieces on Saturday afternoon. Xander Boegarts is out for sure as he is on the bereavement list. Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez are both listed as questionable with what the team is calling a severe case of the flu. Those are likely 3 of the 4 best Boston hitters, so there are a lot of questions for Boston in this one.
Detroit definitely hits left handed pitching better than right handers. Miguel Cabrera has started the season slow, but you know he's going to get his swing going. Cabrera is one of the best natural hitters in baseball history. Detroit has multiple players who have drastic splits as far as their talent versus right-handed and left-handed pitching.
Edwardo Rodriguez has a lot of questions surrounding him. He has potential but consistency has been a major problem through his young career. Jordan Zimmermann had a down year last season but he was pitching hurt. He's healthy again this year, and I expect his numbers to improve once again.
The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 versus a left-handed starter. The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 road games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 against the AL Central. They are 0-5 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. A 20-0 angle.
|04-07-17||Indians v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||3-7||Win||100||20 h 60 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Shelby Miller has a lot of potential, but he also has a great amount of potential to get blown up. Miller has trouble with command both inside and outside the strike zone. While his velocity was up in the spring, he still was hit around. Until he proves he is back, I have to assume he'll get knocked around, especially on his home field.
Cleveland's offense should be even better this year with Encarnacion in the lineup and Brantley back from his injury.
Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open. The ball carries so well here in the thin air with almost no humidity. The roof will be open for this one.
Josh Tomlin pitches here for the Indians, and Tomlin's primary problem has always been the long ball. That would suggest he isn't a good fit for Chase Field with the roof open. Arizona's lineup will score a lot of runs at home this year.
Both pitchers give up a lot of big flies, and the ball will be traveling well in this one.
The over is 43-17-1 in the Diamondbacks last 61 home games.
Take the over.
|04-07-17||Dodgers -110 v. Rockies||1-2||Loss||-110||22 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Dodgers ML* This price is way too good to pass up. The Dodgers will have one of the best teams in the majors this year, and the Rockies are a mediocre team. Ryu is coming off an injury, but appears to be healthy. Kyle Freeland is just starting up in the big leagues, and Freeland is going to have a lot of growing pains this year.
I'm playing this one early because I expect the price to go up. Colorado is banged up badly, so I don't even think the Rockies have their normal offensive advantage in this game. The Dodgers have the better starter and the much better bullpen as well.
The Rockies are 29-61 in their last 90 games vs. a left handed starter.
Take the Dodgers.
|04-06-17||Padres v. Dodgers -1.5||2-10||Win||100||12 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Diego Padres should be the worst team in the majors this year. It all starts with a dreadful starting rotation. How bad is it? They have Jered Weaver starting as their fourth pitcher.
Weaver was consistently throwing 83 mph last year on his fastballs. There are a good number of high school pitchers who throw harder than that, and most college pitchers throw harder than 83 mph. It's so hard to get big league pitchers out throwing at that kind of speed.
Weaver had a 5.06 ERA last year and a FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 5.62. That suggests he was even worse than his ERA. I don't expect him to be better this year.
The Dodgers have a really good lineup against right handed pitching, and I expect them to get to Weaver in a big way here.
The Dodgers have one of the top three bullpens in baseball, and they should support Brandon McCarthy and suppress runs from this subpar San Diego offense.
Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|04-05-17||Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||6-8||Win||100||20 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both Matt Moore and Taijuan Walker have had a lot of command problems in the past couple years. These are guys who can be wild inside or outside of the strike zone. Those are the type of guys that I want to take game overs with. Walks are far more important to how many runs are scored than most would think, and these guys are capable of walking a bunch.
Chase Field is one of the best parks for hitters in Major League Baseball. The ball flies so well here with the roof open as it will be for this game. The dry heat is excellent for ball flight.
Both offenses have some pop to them. Arizona was among the top three in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties last year.
Arizona has what I believe is the worst bullpen in baseball. The Giants bullpen is one of the bottom ten in the league.
The over is 40-17-1 in the Dbacks last 58 home games.
Take the over.
|04-05-17||Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9||3-5||Win||100||24 h 25 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners play Wednesday night in Houston. Doug Eddings is the umpire behind the plate in this one, and that's good news for under bettors. Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches strikes than any other umpire in the majors in the past five years. Pitchers love working with him behind home plate.
Both of these teams have above average bullpens and good defenses, and those things are often overlooked when it comes to betting on baseball totals.
I think James Paxton has a good future in the league, and Charlie Morton is a decent starter as well. The total set at this high of a level with Eddings behind home plate makes this a good value.
Take the under.
|04-05-17||Rockies v. Brewers OVER 9||1-6||Loss||-107||19 h 6 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* Tyler Chatwood has been good on the road in the past year, but opponents batting average on balls in play was .226 against Chatwood on the road last year. If you know anything about BABIP you know that won't continue. The average BABIP in the majors is about .295 or .300, so Chatwood is due for major regression on the road.
Wily Peralta has been really bad in the past year. Peralta just allows way too many baserunners. The Rockies lineup is a good one from top to bottom, and I expect a couple big innings for the Rockies here.
Both pitchers have control problems, and Andy Fletcher is behind home plate here. According to my database, Fletcher ranks in the bottom ten in the majors in strikes called in the last three seasons. A good umpire to have behind the dish for a game like this.
Take the over.
|04-05-17||Pirates +178 v. Red Sox||0-3||Loss||-100||17 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML*
The best period of the year for underdogs has been the first ten games of the season. That makes sense with a lot of unknowns and teams not in the swing of things yet.
Pittsburgh ranked as the third best team in the majors in OBA against left handed pitching last year. Chris Sale is obviously not your average left handed pitcher, but the Pirates stand a better chance at getting to him than do most teams. The Pirates also have better lineup depth than most teams in the NL.
The Pirates are 20-8 in their last 28 games vs. a left handed starter. Jameson Taillon is a really nice pitching prospect for Pittsburgh. He's up against an excellent lineup here, but I think he can do enough to keep his team in the game.
At this price, I have to make the Pirates a play. I think this one should be about +145 or +150.
|04-05-17||Marlins +152 v. Nationals||4-6||Loss||-100||17 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Miami* Tanner Roark has a poor history against Miami. The Nationals are only 2-6 in his last 8 starts against Miami. They are only 1-4 in his last 5 home starts against Miami. Roark is a quality pitcher, but he isn't the type of guy that should be laying this much against a decent team.
Miami's lineup is just as good as Washington's. The Marlins should get a big season out of Christian Yelich this year, and that will be a big boost to them. They have a nice mixture of speed and power.
Washington has the edge in the bullpen, but it isn't a big edge. Barraclough is a guy that I expect to be excellent for Miami out of the pen this year.
I thought this line should be at +130 or so, and more than 20 cents of value has to be a play.
The best period of the year for underdogs has been the first ten games of the season. That makes sense with a lot of unknowns and teams not in the swing of things yet.
|04-04-17||Padres v. Dodgers -1.5||4-0||Loss||-110||19 h 0 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres are going to be horrendous this year. San Diego should lose 100 games or more this year. The Padres were torched yesterday, and I expect more of the same here.
Clayton Richard starts for the Padres, and the Dodgers lineup has combined to hit an amazing .468 against him in his career. Needless to say, he doesn't seem to match up well against the Dodgers.
Kenta Maeda has only allowed Padres hitters to hit .182 against him. Maeda was solid throughout the year for the Dodgers last year, and he does a good job inducing weak contact.
I was surprised this run line price wasn't higher. I'll gladly take it.
Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|04-04-17||Mariners v. Astros -140||1-2||Win||100||22 h 60 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Tuesday's Best Bet* The Houston Astros are a team I'm very high on for this year. Houston has the potential to be among the best teams in baseball. Lance McCullers has tremendous home splits in his career, and McCullers has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
McCullers has a 2.12 ERA in his career at home (4.84 on the road). McCullers is backed by one of the better bullpens in the majors. Houston is also tremendous defensively.
Hisashi Iwakuma isn't the pitcher he once was, and Houston's hitters have a combined .338 average against him all time. Iwakuma is on the decline and McCullers is on his way up.
Houston is better offensively. They have the better starter. They have the better bullpen.
I'll lay it with Houston on Tuesday.
|04-04-17||Indians v. Rangers OVER 8.5||4-3||Loss||-112||17 h 56 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION * The Cleveland Indians showed off their improved offense last night in a come from behind win in Texas. Edwin Encarnacion was huge with a key home run. He should fit brilliantly into this lineup. Cleveland has star Francisco Lindor in the second spot and I expect him to be terrific this year.
Texas has a deep lineup again this year. The Rangers can always pile up the runs on their home field. This is a hitter's park and this team will take advantage of it this year.
Carlos Carrasco had a whopping 10.80 ERA in spring training this year. I don't put a lot of stock in those stats, but Carrasco is coming off injury problems and that suggests some possible issues still for the righty. Carrasco has a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings pitched in Texas.
Martin Perez has an awful 12.46 ERA in three appearances against the Indians. Perez isn't a pitcher I'm high on, and I think Cleveland can put up a pretty big number here.
Early in the season over the last decade, the over has done well, and that is especially true in warm weather cities.
Take the over.
|04-03-17||Angels v. A's OVER 8||2-4||Loss||-105||19 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Opening Day Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics meet in the season opener on Monday night.
The over has been very good in the first ten games of the season in the past five years. That has been especially true in games with a total of 8 or lower and a gametime temperature of 55 degrees or warmer. These games have gone over at a clip of about 58% in the past five years. In a large sample size, that's definitely a good number.
The Angels and A's are both subpar defensively. I don't think enough importance is put on defense and how it changes totals. Oakland may be the worst defense in the majors, and that will lead to more opportunities for scoring.
Neither team has a tremendous lineup, but both of them are better than last year. These bullpens are also no better than average.
Nolasco is a worse than league average pitcher and Graveman is no better than league average at this stage in his career.
Take the over here.
|04-03-17||Pirates +153 v. Red Sox||3-5||Loss||-100||12 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a team that I believe is undervalued coming into the season. While Pittsburgh obviously doesn't have the lineup that Boston has, the Pirates lineup is above average.
Gregory Polanco appears ready to take the next step to being a superstar, and Starling Marte has already been excellent. Andrew McCutchen had a down year last year, but I think he has some more very good years left in him.
Gerrit Cole has tremendous stuff and he is healthier now than he was last year. The Pirates expect a lot out of him, and I think he'll have a good season.
Rick Porcello is a good pitcher, but nothing better. Porcello doesn't have the upside that Cole has. Don't let Porcello winning the Cy Young last year make you think he is elite. He got that one because of his wins, but his peripheral stats weren't nearly as good as many other starters.
Long-term the underdogs have done well in the first few weeks of the MLB season. This is a dog with too much value for me to pass.
|10-28-16||Indians v. Cubs OVER 7.5||1-0||Loss||-115||29 h 28 m||Show|
*4 Star World Series Game 3 Total DOMINATION* Wind plays a bigger role at Wrigley Field than at any other field in the majors. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 20 miles per hour during this game. With a mild temperature in the low 60's, the ball should be flying very well in Chicago on Friday night.
Josh Tomlin has had home run ball issues all season. He allowed nearly 2 homers for every 9 innings pitched, one of the highest marks in the majors. The Cubs certainly have plenty of guys with power. I think Tomlin will get hit around in this spot. He is a gritty pitcher, but his stuff is subpar, and with the wind this way it is a big negative for him.
Kyle Hendricks is definitely a good pitcher, but more than half of the batted balls off of him are fly balls. The wind should hurt him as well.
A total this low with weather like this in Wrigley is almost unheard of. Take the over here.
|10-19-16||Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5||3-0||Loss||-100||14 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Blue Jays have been terrific against left handed pitching in the last couple years. Toronto has a .330 OBP this season against lefties. They are in a unique spot here as they face Indians rookie lefty Ryan Merritt in this game. Merritt has made one start in his MLB career. He started 9/30 against KC in a game that didn't mean anything to either team and allowed 1 run in 5 innings.
He'll be pitching on a whole different stage here. Toronto's home crowd is a rowdy bunch, and it is win or go home for the Blue Jays. I'll be surprised if the rookie lefty is able to throw well in this situation. It is a lot to ask of a youngster with almost no experience.
Marco Estrada pitched great in his loss in game one. Estrada has a long history of throwing his best late in the year. In fact, in his career Estrada has a 2.98 ERA in the months of September and October, and that is easily his best of any period throughout the season.
The Blue Jays obviously need this game more than the Indians do. I don't think Toronto wins the series, but I do think they send it back to Cleveland.
The moneyline is too expensive for me, so I'm on the run line. Take Toronto -1.5.
|10-14-16||Blue Jays v. Indians -128||0-2||Win||100||31 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star Blue Jays/Indians Game 1 CASH* The Cleveland Indians host the Toronto Blue Jays in game one of the ALCS on Friday night. I think this game is more important for the Indians than it is the Blue Jays. Why? The Indians have very little pitching depth in their rotation right now. With injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, the pressure is on Corey Kluber in this game. Carrasco is out for the series. Salazar is only available in short innings (likely out of the bullpen).
All of this means the Indians are at a real disadvantage in games three and four. The Blue Jays have a deeper rotation, and the Indians know that. Why do I consider this a positive? Because I think this is a great spot for Kluber, who has gotten stronger late in the season, to step up and have a huge game for his team. The Indians are likely to pitch him deep into this game, and I expect Francona to use his best bullpen guys (Miller and Allen) in game one if he has the opportunity. The Indians have the managerial edge in this series, and they have the better bullpen.
Marco Estrada hasn't pitched in these huge situations in the past, and I don't trust him nearly as much as Kluber. The Indians have been a great offense at home all year. I'll lay the short price with the home team. Take Cleveland.
|10-05-16||Giants -105 v. Mets||3-0||Win||100||19 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Giants/Mets CASH* The New York Mets have had a nice season. They lost all kinds of key pieces, but were still able to get to this game. Still, I think the Mets youth and their flaws could show in this one game playoff.
The San Francisco Giants have a history of winning on the road in the postseason. They have a history of winning on the road in the postseason in this Wild Card game. They also have a history of just in general knowing how to win in October. Bruce Bochy is a great manager and I trust him to push the right buttons here.
Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard is an elite pitching matchup. Bumgarner is 4-0 in four starts against the Mets at Citi Field. He has allowed just 2 runs in 29 innings pitched at the park. Syndergaard has a 3.66 ERA in three starts against San Francisco.
Syndergaard is pitching with a bone spur in his elbow, and his strikeout rate is down late in the season. I don't like betting against Syndergaard, but I believe the value is going against the Mets in this game.
Syndergaard's key weakness is allowing stolen bases. He allowed 48 stolen bases this year, which was most in the majors. Expect the Giants to take advantage of that in this game, and I think that could be the difference.
The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts against the Mets. The Giants are 35-17 in their last 52 playoff games. They are 9-3 in their last 12 road playoff games. Take San Francisco.
|09-28-16||A's v. Angels -128||6-8||Win||100||20 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Oakland Athletics are hapless on offense. Oakland has scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. The Los Angeles Angels still have a few good hitters in their lineup and the Angels should be expected to score here.
Oakland starts Sonny Gray here, but local reporters have said he is only expected to pitch one or two innings. That means a bullpen game for the A's, and this A's bullpen is pretty mediocre. The A's bullpen has been used quite a bit already in the past week.
Alex Meyer starts for the Angels, and he has a high upside. Meyer has averaged 10 or more strikeouts per nine innings throughout his time in the minors, and he has kept that going in his short time in the majors. Meyer misses a lot of bats. He has been better in his last couple starts, and I see this as a good opportunity for him to finish the season on a strong note against a weak Oakland lineup.
The Angels are playing well at the end of the season. They are 6-1 in their last 7 games. The A's are 0-4 in Gray's last 4 starts vs. the Angels. The A's are 1-5 in their last 6 meetings with the Angels in LA.
Take the Angels here.
|09-25-16||Phillies v. Mets OVER 8.5||0-17||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have both seen their lineups heat up of late. These two have been playing some really high scoring games against each other. How high? 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams have seen at least 13 runs scored in the game! In this series so far it has been 9-8, 10-5, and 10-8.
Jake Thompson is struggling for the Phillies. Thompson starts here and he has a 5.62 ERA and a 5.93 FIP on the year. The Mets are swinging with confidence now and I think they get to him in this one. Thompson doesn't pitch deep in the game very often and this Phillies bullpen has the second worst ERA in baseball in the past month.
Robert Gsellman has pitched pretty well in the majors so far for the Mets. Still, he had a 5.73 ERA and a 5.20 FIP in Triple A this year. I think he is due for regression. He struggled in his one outing against the Phillies this season as well.
The over is 4-0-2 in the Phillies last 6. The over is 66-30-5 in the last 101 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.
|09-23-16||Giants -136 v. Padres||2-7||Loss||-136||20 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Friday Night MONEY* I must admit, I never really expected myself to be laying this price on Albert Suarez, but in this spot I believe it is justified. The Giants are half a game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot in the NL. San Francisco is a team who has proven over they can win when it matters most late in the season.
While they haven't played well since the break, there is still time for them to heat up. The Giants are better than they have played, and here they are against an inferior opponent. Edwin Jackson is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, so Suarez gives the Giants a small advantage. The Giants and Padres bullpens are similar. The big positives for the Giants are their defense and their offense. This San Francisco lineup has way more pop than does the Padres lineup.
What does this game mean to San Diego? It means everything to San Francisco. The fact that the Giants have played poorly of late gives us a better price in a must win situation.
The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Padres are 1-5 in Jackson's last 6 starts. Take San Francisco.
|09-21-16||Yankees -123 v. Rays||11-5||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The New York Yankees need to win every time they step on the field now. They have no room for error. If you are looking to win one game and you are the New York Yankees, the perfect man to have on the mound is Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has been superb of late for the team.
It also helps a lot that Tanaka is up against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tanaka hasn't allowed a single run in 14 innings pitched in Tampa Bay in his career. Tanaka has consistently been working deep into the game, and he'll be up against a really bad Tampa Bay lineup in this one.
Alex Cobb starts for the Rays here. While he has a lot of potential, his advanced statistics haven't been very good in his first three starts back from an injury. Additionally, he has hit hard in Triple A in his rehab starts, which still worries me a bit.
The Yankees have a clear cut bullpen advantage over the Rays, who have had one of the worst bullpens in the past month.
The Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in Tanaka's last 7 starts against the Rays. The Yankees are 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. The Yankees are 7-0 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. An 18-0 angle. Take the Yankees here.
|09-21-16||White Sox v. Phillies UNDER 7.5||3-8||Loss||-120||19 h 10 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In the past five years, Doug Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than any other umpire in the majors. It's no surprise then that he is a very good under umpire. Eddings is behind home plate for this one.
Chris Sale is the starter for the White Sox in this one. Sale has had another very good season, and he's a up against a weak hitting Phillies lineup. Sale consistently pitches deep into the game, and I see him doing that again in this one. Sale has a very good 2.87 career ERA with Eddings behind home plate.
Jerad Eickhoff has lost a lot of games, but he hasn't pitched poorly for the Phillies. Eickhoff doesn't get run support. Eickhoff has a solid 3.74 ERA this year, and his career ERA at home is 3.30. He faces a White Sox lineup that has struggled against right handed pitching all year.
The under is 27-12-2 in Eddings' last 41 interleague games behind the plate. Take the under.
|09-20-16||Royals v. Indians OVER 9||1-2||Loss||-103||16 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Edinson Volquez has been absolutely awful in the last couple months. Volquez has allowed 4 runs or more in 9 of his last 10 starts. That's just remarkably bad, and he goes up against a Cleveland Indians lineup that has been really good at home this year. The over is 45-27-3 in the Indians home games this year.
How has Volquez been in Cleveland? Terrible. Volquez has an 8.51 ERA in five career starts at Cleveland. Can we really expect him to turn it around here? I don't have any reason to think he will.
Josh Tomlin has been terrible of late as well. The home run has been a big problem for Tomlin. The Royals have been swinging the bat really well of late, and Tomlin has a 4.66 ERA against Kansas City in his career. Tomlin has allowed 6 runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts.
The over is 4-0-1 in the Royals last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 during game one of a series. The over is 5-0 in Volquez's last 5 Tuesday starts. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 35-0 angle. Take the over.
|09-18-16||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10||9-10||Loss||-110||13 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Robbie Ray has been throwing the ball extremely well of late. Ray has a FIP of 3.60 or lower in seven straight games. He has been racking up the strikeouts. Ray has 41 strikeouts in his last five starts.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a combined .198 average against Robbie Ray. While the Dodgers are great against right handed pitching, they have been really weak against lefties all year. The Dodgers average 4.88 runs per game against righties and 3.44 runs per game against lefties. The Dodgers rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching.
The Dodgers start Jose De Leon here. De Leon is one of the team's best pitching prospects and he has been sustaining very high strikeout rates in the minors. He is punching out 12 batters per nine innings over the long run. That will go down some in the big leagues, but his swing and miss rate makes me high on his potential.
Ryan Blakeney is behind the plate, and in all 3 games he has been behind the plate for with a total of 10 or higher this year, the under has cashed in.
The under is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers last 7 games following a win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 3-0-1 in the Dbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 24-0 angle.
Take the under.
|09-17-16||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 10.5||6-2||Loss||-100||6 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Shelby Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year. Miller has a 7.12 ERA on the season. He has been giving up hard contact all year. Last year, 26.9% of opponents batted balls were hard contact. This year it is up to 35.0%. That's a huge change and it tells you a lot. Miller has struggled with his command both inside and outside of the strike zone.
The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been much better in the second half of the season, and they have been crushing right handed pitching. Add in the fact that Arizona has the single worst bullpen in baseball now, and I see a real chance for the Dodgers to put up a big number here.
Brock Stewart is a pretty good prospect for the Dodgers, but in his two road starts this year he has allowed 14 runs in just 9 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks offense can score runs at home, and I see Stewart getting into some trouble here.
The over is 37-14-1 in the DBacks last 52 home games. The Chase Field roof is slated to be open, which is a big help for the over. Jerry Meals is behind home plate here, and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball. Take the over.
|09-16-16||A's v. Rangers -1.5||6-7||Loss||-100||18 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Friday Night MONEYMAKER* The Texas Rangers have been money in the bank when Cole Hamels is on the mound. They are 32-9 in his last 41 starts. The Rangers are 16-3 in his last 19 home starts. Texas knows how important home field advantage is, so don't expect to see them taking their foot off the gas this early.
Oakland is coming off a four-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals. The A's should be commended for their performance in that series, but they should get a wakeup call here in Texas. The Rangers are 47-22 at home this year, and Texas is a much better team than the Royals this year.
Oakland played in Kansas City last night, while Texas had the day off. Kendall Graveman takes the mound for the A's, and in two starts against Texas he has a 7.75 ERA. Cole Hamels has a 2.18 ERA in his three starts against the A's in his career.
This is a good price on the home team on the run line. Take Texas -1.5.
|09-13-16||Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||4-11||Win||104||20 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The roof at Chase Field will be open for this one, and that's great news for the over. This is a totally different park when the roof is open. With the hot temperatures (mid 90's) and low humidity, the ball travels extremely well with the roof open here.
Jorge De La Rosa has a 4.62 ERA at Arizona. De La Rosa is on the downside of his career, and he is up against an Arizona team that has hit left handers about as well as any team in baseball this season.
Robbie Ray has a 5.24 ERA at home in his career. His road ERA is only 3.68. Ray has struggled when pitching at Chase Field, and the Rockies still have a good lineup.
The Diamondbacks have a team on base percentage of .404 against De La Rosa. The Rockies have a .414 OBP against Ray.
These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see a bunch of runs scored late in this game.
The over is 4-0 in De La Rosa's last 4 starts vs. DBacks. The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over.
|09-11-16||Cubs v. Astros +1.5||9-5||Loss||-117||16 h 17 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Chicago Cubs don't have as much to play for right now as the Houston Astros. Chicago will finish with the best record in the National League barring a massive collapse. They are definitely in the playoffs. Houston is on the outside looking in, and they have been a very good home team the last couple years.
Mike Fiers is a guy with some dramatic home/road splits. At home, Fiers is a very solid pitcher. In his last four starts at home, he has a FIP of 2.50 or lower. Jake Arrieta has been good this year, but he certainly hasn't been as dominant as he was a year ago.
The Astros are 7-1 in Fiers' last 8 home starts, and yet we are getting this cheap of a price on the Astros +1.5 line.
This game means more to Houston than it means to the Cubs. Houston is a young team that finished strong last year, and I see them finishing strong for a second straight year. Take Houston +1.5.
|09-10-16||Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5||6-5||Win||100||22 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In Edinson Volquez and James Shields we have a matchup of two starting pitchers who are capable of getting blasted at any given time. The opposition can put up a 5 or 6 spot in an inning and it isn't a big surprise.
Volquez has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 8 starts. He's giving up a bunch of hard hit balls, and there's no reason to expect it to change here. The White Sox have shown some signs of life offensively in recent weeks.
James Shields has a 6.07 ERA on the year and a 6.22 FIP. Shields has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. He has been as bad as anyone in baseball in the last few months. The Royals have been good offensively on the road of late.
The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 10-15 mph. Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is a solid over umpire. Take the over here.
|09-09-16||Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 6.5||1-4||Win||100||20 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kershaw was having arguably the best season of his amazing career before going down with an injury. He pitched great in his rehab start, and I see no reason to expect him to struggle here.
Kershaw has made three career starts in Miami against the Marlins and has a sparkling 1.27 ERA. The Marlins haven't been consistent at the plate of late. While Kershaw won't pitch too deep into the game here, the Dodgers bullpen has been very good in the second half of the season.
Jose Fernandez counters for the Miami Marlins. Fernandez is one of the top three pitchers in baseball in my book. When he is pitching at home, his numbers are off the chart good. In 40 career starts at home, Fernandez has a 1.57 ERA. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in two home starts against the Dodgers in his career.
The under is 26-10-1 in Kershaw's last 37 starts. The under is 9-4 in Fernandez's last 13 home starts. A pitcher's duel here. Take the under.
|09-07-16||Mets v. Reds UNDER 8.5||6-3||Loss||-115||13 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets start Noah Syndergaard in this one. Syndergaard went through a period of time where he seemed to have less than his best stuff, but lately he has been dealing again. Syndergaard has allowed a grand total of 7 hits in his last three starts. Syndergaard has allowed only 3 runs in those three starts.
Syndergaard will be up against a weak Cincinnati Reds offense in this one. Joey Votto is hitting the cover off the ball, but this offense outside of him just isn't very good. Billy Hamilton being out hurts the Reds a great deal. In his career, Syndergaard has zero walks and 13 strikeouts against the Reds. The Cincinnati hitters have a career .163 average against him.
Anthony DeSclafani has been excellent this year for the Reds. DeSclafani has made 16 starts this year, and he has allowd 3 runs or less in 13 of those 16 starts. He has allowed just two runs in his last 16 innings pitched.
While neither bullpen is very good, both of these starters have a long history of pitching deep into the game.
Mark Ripperger is the umpire here, and he is a good under umpire with a high strikeout/walk rate.
The under is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Mets last 5 games overall. Take the under.
|09-06-16||Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8.5||9-7||Win||100||17 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates have two of the deeper lineups in the National League. Pittsburgh is tanking right now. The Pirates have lost 7 straight games. They won't be back in the postseason this year. The Cardinals are in a Wild Card spot, and they have to keep winning with the Mets right on their heels.
St. Louis has the number two rated offense in baseball (behind only the Cubs) when it comes to weighted on base average away from home. Pittsburgh has allowed 29 runs in their last three games. The Pirates have given up 6 runs or more in six of their last nine contests. St. Louis is more than capable of putting up a big number vs. Ryan Vogelsong and the Pirates bullpen.
Vogelsong is a below average pitcher who has the highest walk rate of his career so far this year. His FIP and XFIP are more than a run higher than his ERA, so regression should be coming.
Luke Weaver has faced weak lineups in 3 of his first 4 starts in the majors, and this Pirates lineup is a solid one.
Both bullpens are not pitching well down the stretch. Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is a clear over umpire.
The over is 14-5 in the Cardinals last 19 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 36-17-2 in the Pirates last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the over.
|09-05-16||Rangers -105 v. Mariners||6-14||Loss||-105||16 h 39 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Cole Hamels has a long history of pitching his best at the end of the season. Hamels has a 3.52 ERA in the first half of the season and a 2.97 ERA in the second half of the season. Hamels had a rare bad outing in his last start. That was against Seattle. I see him as a veteran who has a great chance of bouncing back as he pitches in a pitcher-friendly park here in Seattle. The Mariners are significantly worse offensively against lefties compared to right handed pitching. Texas has won 31 of Cole Hamels' last 39 starts.
The Seattle Mariners appear to be melting down at the very worst time. Seattle has fallen out of the Wild Card spot, and they are about to lose touch. They have lost seven of their last eight games overall.
Felix Hernandez isn't the pitcher he used to be. Hernandez has had some better outings of late, but his advanced stats suggest he still isn't throwing the ball all that well. He has a FIP of 4.38 or higher in six of his last nine starts. This is a good Rangers lineup.
The Rangers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games. They are 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 Monday starts. The Rangers are 6-0 in Hamels' last 6 starts vs. Seattle. A 21-0 angle. Take Texas.
|09-04-16||Tigers v. Royals OVER 8.5||6-5||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in baseball. Detroit got all kinds of people on base yesterday against Yordano Ventura and the Royals, and didn't manage to ever come up with the big hit. They should be able to get a lot of runners on base in this one against Edinson Volquez. It isn't likely that they'll leave the bases packed so often again on Sunday.
To say that Volquez has struggled of late is an understatement. Volquez had a 6.37 ERA in August. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Daniel Norris starts for the Tigers. Norris goes against a Royals lineup that hits .270 against lefties (only .254 against righties). The Royals have scored 37 runs in their last 6 games, and they haven't scored less than 4 runs in any of those contests.
The umpire here is an over umpire, and we have the wind blowing out at 10 mph on a warm day in Kansas City. Take the over.
|09-03-16||Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12||9-4||Win||100||18 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen has been the worst in baseball in the past 30 days, and it hasn't even been close. Colorado's bullpen has 6.93 ERA in the past 14 days. These are two really tired and bad bullpens, and they are meet at Coors Field on Saturday night.
The second really important factor here is the home plate umpire Tom Woodring. Woodring actually has the single lowest strikes called percentage of any umpire in my database in the past five years. This guy is a great over umpire.
Tyler Chatwood has a 5.43 ERA at home this year. He is coming off the DL, and likely won't pitch too deep into the game. Braden Shipley is making his first career start at Coors Field, and this is a really tough situation for him.
These two lineups are more than capable of blowing up for huge innings here.
The last six contests between these two teams have finished with at least 13 runs in them. This number is very high, but it still isn't high enough.
Take the over.
|08-31-16||Yankees v. Royals -112||5-4||Loss||-112||17 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Kansas City Royals start Ian Kennedy in this game. Kennedy has a long history of pitching his best baseball late in the season. He is holding true to form so far this year. In his last six starts, Kennedy hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of those starts. In five of the six, he has allowed one run or less. He has been extremely consistent, and I have to expect a good performance here. In his career, Kennedy's ERA is almost a full run lower in the second half of the season as compared to the first half.
Luis Cessa projects as a number four or five starter in the majors. Cessa has made only two starts in the majors, and this is a difficult spot for him. This is a huge game for both of these teams, as they are battling it out for position in the AL Wildcard race. Cessa isn't likely to pitch deep into the game, and the Yankees bullpen is at a severe disadvantage to the Royals. Kansas City's bullpen ERA in the past 14 days is 0.83.
The Royals are 48-22 in their last 70 home games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. Barely better than even money at home against a rookie starting pitcher? I have to take the home team here. Take Kansas City.
|08-30-16||Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5||4-5||Loss||-112||16 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I had the over in last night's game between these two, and that pick didn't work at all. It finished 1-0 in 10 innings. Way off in that one. I'm 8-1 in my last 9 and I'm looking to get a ninth winner in ten selections as I go back to the over once again here.
There are plenty of reasons for this play. Minnesota's pitching staff is absolutely gassed, and they are starting a guy who hasn't started in the majors since 2013. He is a mediocre Triple A guy, and he's unlikely to be able to quiet the Cleveland bats. Cleveland has been very good this year against lefties, and the Indians have been great offensively at home. The over is 37-23-3 in the Indians 63 home games this year.
Josh Tomlin starts for the Indians and he has been really bad of late. Tomlin has allowed 6 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. He hasn't made it through five full innings in any of those outings either. Tomlin is giving up the home run ball at a record pace. He is allowing 3.24 HR's per nine innings in the month of August. In his career, Tomlin has been much worse in the second half of the season on a consistent basis.
These two offenses were quiet last night, but I think they'll be back to hitting again here. An over umpire behind the plate is another bonus in this one.
The over is 40-14-4 in the Twins last 58 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 21-8-3 in Tomlin's last 32 starts. Take the over.
|08-29-16||Twins v. Indians OVER 9||0-1||Loss||-110||25 h 57 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Cleveland Indians come home after a rough road trip, and they'll look to get back on track here. Minnesota appears to have given up on the season, and the Indians need to take advantage of the Twins in this series.
Minnesota's offense is still scoring runs. The Twins have scored 26 runs in their last four games. The crazy part is they didn't win any of those four games. Minnesota has lost 10 straight games overall. The Twins have allowed 8 runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Hector Santiago is on the mound for them against Cleveland in this one, and he is more than capable of giving up a big number. Santiago enters with a 5.16 ERA and a 5.35 FIP.
The Twins bullpen is on fumes right now, and Santiago has never been a guy to work deep into the game. If he gets pulled early here, there isn't likely to be much in the way of "relief" coming from the bullpen.
Trevor Bauer starts for the Indians here. Bauer has been inconsistent throughout his career. There are a few numbers that jump out at me about him though. Bauer has a career 3.78 ERA in the first half of the season and a 5.16 ERA in the second half of the season. He's been worse in the past month again this year.
Bauer has also struggled against the Twins in his career. In 10 starts against Minnesota, he has a 5.86 ERA.
The over is 4-0 in Santiago's last 4 starts. The over is 58-24-4 in the Twins last 86 games. The over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Cleveland between these two teams. Take the over.
|08-28-16||Indians v. Rangers +102||1-2||Win||102||13 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Texas Rangers have been undervalued all year, and I believe they are again in this one. Danny Salazar obviously has a really high upside, but he has had some serious trouble with his command of late. Salazar has a ridiculous 19.29 ERA in the month of August. He has walked 10 guys in his last 11 innings pitched. He has also allowed 4 home runs in those 11 innings. In Salazar's only start of his career in Texas, he allowed 7 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings (in 2015). This time he'll face a much better Rangers lineup.
Texas starts Derek Holland. Holland has a 2.64 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Indians. Cleveland is worn out after a long road trip, and this is a difficult spot for them. This is the type of game where it could be tough for the Indians to get ready to go. Holland pitched very well in his first game back from the DL, and I see him pitching well enough here.
The Rangers are 37-18 in Holland's last 55 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 6-2 in Holland's last 8 starts vs. Cleveland. Take Texas.
|08-28-16||Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 9.5||1-4||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Carlos Rodon has a 2.61 ERA since the All Star break. Rodon has great stuff, and he has the potential to be very good. He is starting to show that potential on a more consistent basis lately. Rodon has had a FIP of 3.32 or lower in each of his last four starts, so it has been no fluke.
The Mariners have a great lineup against right handed pitching, but they are only mediocre against lefties. I'll look for Rodon to pitch well in this one.
The Chicago White Sox have struggled all year against right handed pitching. Taijuan Walker is inconsistent, but he has a high upside and I think he can keep the White Sox in check here.
A big help in this game is umpire John Hirschbeck, who is a good under umpire. The weather is also good for an under with moderate temperatures and winds blowing in from center.
The under is 7-0 in Rodon's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under.
|08-28-16||Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5||6-9||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays have scored 9, 9, 15, and 8 runs in their last four home contests against the Minnesota Twins. The Twins have allowed a minimum of 8 runs in their last four games, and in 5 of their last 6. This Twins team appears to have packed it in for the season. They are scoring runs, but they aren't competitive because their pitching staff has been awful. The Twins bullpen is totally gassed right now, and that spells trouble against a Jays lineup that is just getting healthy.
Kyle Gibson is giving up 1.35 homers per nine innings on the road, and this Jays lineup has a ton of power. Gibson also walks nearly 4 per nine innings on the road. Gibson has a career 5.36 ERA in the second half of the season. His career ERA in August is 5.87. Toronto should put up a big number again here.
Minnesota's offense has been hot of late. The Twins should be able to score a few off R.A. Dickey in this one.
Take the over.
|08-27-16||Reds -104 v. Diamondbacks||13-0||Win||100||18 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Cincinnati Reds should have won Friday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but they failed to convert with men in scoring position. The Reds will look to get back on track with Anthony DeSclafani on the hill on Saturday. DeSclafani has been very consistently good this year. While he is due for some regression from his current level, DeSclafani is a better than average big league pitcher. He gives the Reds a solid six innings almost every time out.
DeSclafani has allowed 3 runs or less in all but 3 of his 14 starts so far this year. DeSclafani has a career road ERA of 3.16. His best work has come on the road.
Zack Godley starts for the Diamondbacks in this one. Godley is way too inconsistent for me. This is a guy who was hit very hard by this Reds lineup in Cincinnati not very long ago. Godley also struggles to go deep into the game, which is a major problem.
The Reds bullpen has been significantly better of late (it still isn't very good), but the Diamondbacks bullpen has been atrocious in the past month. How bad? Arizona has a 6.80 ERA from their bullpen in the past 30 days. The Reds have a 3.67 bullpen ERA in the past month.
The Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Cincinnati is 4-0 in DeSclafani's last 4 starts following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 16-35 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Cincinnati.
|08-26-16||Cubs -110 v. Dodgers||6-4||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star Cubs/Dodgers CASH* The Chicago Cubs are 81-45 on the year. Quite frankly, there aren't many times that we're going to have a chance to take them at -110. The Dodgers are obviously a good team as well, but they have a large flaw, and that is their inability to hit left-handed pitching.
The Dodgers rank 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. That's only better than the Phillies and the Braves. They have a losing record on the year against left-handed started pitching. While Mike Montgomery isn't a great starter, I do think he is a league average type of guy, and those guys have given the Dodgers fits this year when they are lefties.
Bud Norris has been good so far at Dodger Stadium, but his issues with free passes could really bite him against this lineup. Norris shut down the Rays and Rockies at home, but it won't be as easy to do it against the Cubs.
The Cubs bullpen would have been their one disadvantage against the Dodgers a month ago, but with Chapman in the fold and the other guys pitching well, I see the bullpen as a wash now.
The Cubs are 22-5 in their last 27 games. They are 13-3 in their last 16 after a day off. Take the Cubs.