*4 Star Play Under* The Dodgers and Phillies game on Wednesday night ended around 1:45 am after a long rain delay turned it into a very long night for both teams. This is a really quick turnaround. 

There is no set rule that quick turnaround games are going to be low scoring by any means, but I lean under in these circumstances. Why? Many coaches will sit out key players from their lineups. Dave Roberts regularly does this on get away day games to start with, so I would expect one or two Dodgers regulars to be out of the lineup here. A get away afternoon game on a Thursday is an under lean, and in this case with the short turnaround I believe it makes the situation stronger.

Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in all of baseball. He is a strike caller who always has one of the highest called strike percentages and strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the majors.

Aaron Nola has allowed only in 35 and 2/3 innings pitched in his last five starts. Nola is a really streaky pitcher, and when he is on he can be lights out. The Dodgers lineup is excellent, but Nola has tremendous stuff. Nola has been working deep into the game which is helpful since we'd like to limit how much of the Phillies bullpen we see here.

Ross Stripling is an underrated pitcher who threw the ball really well in his last start. 

The under is 6-1-1 in Stripling's last 8 starts. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers have the deepest lineup in the National League. The Dodgers are on fire of late. They have scored 42 runs in their last four games. This team has a lot of power, and they are especially good against right handed pitching.

The Phillies offense has been streaky, but they have a lot of potential. They are up against Kenta Maeda here. Maeda has been amazing at home this year, but he has struggled in a big way  on the road. Maeda has a 2.26 ERA and a .230 weighted on base average allowed at home. Maeda has an ugly 5.44 ERA and a .323 wOBA allowed on the road. 

Nick Pivetta comes into this one in really bad form. He has had a FIP of 6.92 or higher in four of his last five starts. You don't want to go into a matchup with the Dodgers with those kind of recent statistics. 

The Phillies bullpen has the single worst FIP of any bullpen in the majors in the last 30 days. The Dodgers middle relief can sometimes be an issue.

With a hot temperature and winds blowing out, I think there will be a lot of runs scored here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani in this one. He has a major home run problem. DeSclafani is giving up nearly 2 home runs every nine innings. Wrigley Field is a good hitters ballpark with the warm weather we are currently seeing in the midwest. The Cubs have plenty of power, and they are very patient. Chicago is likely to have traffic on the bases here, so if they get a blast or two it could be big for the total in this one.

Alec Mills had a 4.73 ERA and a 5.32 FIP in Triple A this year. Mills also gives up a lot of home runs and hard contact. He doesn't have any pitches that are all that impressive, and I think he is a guy who will struggle to stay in the big leagues. 

The Reds offense has been much better in recent weeks. With Scooter Gennett healthy again and Yasiel Puig smashing the baseball, this offense has a much higher upside than they have shown for much of the season. 

Manny Gonzalez is a good over umpire with a low strikeout/walk ratio, so that is helpful for the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* Two teams headed in different directions right now. The Braves are 39-17 in their last 56 games. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5, and they are only a couple games above .500 now. 

Atlanta has more depth in the lineup than any other team in the National League outside of the Dodgers. The Braves rank 8th in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. 

Milwaukee ranks only 22nd in wOBA in the last 30 days. Several guys in this lineup have been ice cold of late.

The Brewers bullpen depth isn't good enough right now. Injuries have really weakened this unit. Josh Hader is great,  but the rest of the bullpen is subpar. Atlanta's bullpen has been surprisingly strong in the last 30 days, and their numbers are significantly better than the Brewers bullpen.

Max Fried has been the victim of bad luck in recent starts. Opponents have had a batting average on balls in play of .500 or higher in his last two starts. Fried has had a FIP of 3.04 or lower in three of his last four starts.

Adrian Houser isn't really a starter and the long relief for Milwaukee is a major weakness.

At this price, I'll take the better team with the better offense and pitcher.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals have played some great baseball in the past few weeks after a brutal start to the season. Everyone knows by now that Washington's bullpen has let them down in a ton of games so far this year. They have improved numbers of late, and the Phillies bullpen has actually been worse in the last month than the Nats pen. 

Washington is a whopping 25-9 in their last 34 contests. The Nationals offense is good, and their starting rotation is a good one as well. Anibal Sanchez isn't spectacular, but he is very good at inducing soft contact with his offspeed pitches. Sanchez ranked in the top 1% in exit velocity allowed last year. He is in the top 5% in that same category this year. 

Jake Arrieta is dealing with bone spurs in his right elbow. Arrieta's statistics are worse across the board this year, and it doesn't come as any surprise that he isn't healthy. He'll pitch through this though, and he is in particularly bad form of late. 

The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games against a right handed pitcher. Washington is 16-5 in their last 21 vs. the NL East. Philadelphia is 5-13 in their last 18 vs. a right handed starter.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Cincinnati vs. Colorado Over* The Reds and rockies clash on Saturday night. This Over is a nice play for us. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies rank last in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Colorado is putting up video game numbers on offense at home, but they are struggling a lot away from Coors Field.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been elite against lefties, but they have been average to slightly below average against right handed pitching.

German Marquez has a great track record on the road. Marquez has a 0.876 WHIP on the road this year. 

Alex Young has good swing and miss stuff and the Rockies have a lot of free swingers in their lineup.

Doug Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors. He is a definite positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies have Jon Gray starting here. Gray has loads of potential, and he has pitched better so far this year. Gray has a FIP of 2.87 or lower in three straight starts. He has thrown the ball really well against Arizona so far this year. Without David Peralta, the DBacks are missing a key piece in the middle of the order. 

Arizona is elite against lefties, but their weighted on base average is only 19th in the majors against right handed pitching.

Colorado excels against lefties, and this lineup has blasted Robbie Ray in the past. Ray struggles at Chase Field, and the Rockies should get scoring chances often again here. The Rockies have a whopping .445 weighted on base average against Ray in a big sample size of 186 at bats.

The Rockies are 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The DBacks are 0-5 in Ray's last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The Rockies are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts overall.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kenta Maeda is an underrated starter. Maeda has been lights out at home this year. Maeda has allowed a .167 batting average at home, and opponents have an on base percentage of just .226 against him at Dodger Stadium. 

The Padres rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They have done some damage against lefties, but they aren't all that good against right handers.

Maeda's average exit velocity allowed is just 84.8 mph this year, which is superb. Maeda is clearly good at inducing soft contact.

Chris Paddack is a good young pitcher who doesn't walk many batters. Paddack has several plus pitches, and he has a swinging strike rate of 11.2%. 

The Padres rank first in the majors in bullpen SIERA this year, and the Dodgers are 10th. In the past month, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 3rd and the Padres rank 6th. These are two solid bullpens.

The under is 17-5 in Maeda's last 22 home starts.

Adam Hamari is behind the plate here, and he is definitely a strike caller. 

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Orioles ML* Of course I know the Orioles are a terrible team. This isn't a play on Baltimore as it is a fade of Toronto. Clayton Richard is pitching and the Blue Jays are -145. 

Clayton Richard has allowed an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph this year, when is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors. He has allowed 52.8% of batted balls to be hard hit compared to Baseball Savant. That's a brutal percentage. Richard isn't any good, and the Orioles lineup is better against lefties than righties.

Andrew Cashner has been a bit better this year. Cashner has allowed only a .184 batting average against this Toronto lineup in his career as well. Cashner isn't good, but he is better than Richard.

The Blue Jays are 19-42 in their last 61 games. Richard is one of the worst starters in the majors. In a game I see as a 50/50 type game, I'll take the underdog.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays have played 7 of their last 10 games over this total. The Baltimore Orioles have played 7 of their last 10 games over this total.

Toronto ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Baltimore ranks sixth in the last 14 days. 

Dylan Bundy and Aaron Sanchez have been disappointing this year. Bundy is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings, which is one of the worst marks in the majors. Sanchez is walking almost as many batters as he is striking out. Sanchez is allowing the hardest contact of his career so far.

The Orioles bullpen ranks dead last in FIP for the season. The Blue Jays rank 23rd in that same statistic.

Rogers Centre pretty easily ranks first in park factor for home runs, meaning it has been highly conducive to home runs. With two bad SP's and bad bullpens, I like this to be high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios has been able to improve a lot in his last couple years in the majors. He has a really high upside. Berrios still isn't as good on the road as he is at home, but he has improved a lot on the road compared to a couple years ago. 

Berrios has a 2.89 ERA on the year. He is only allowing 31.2% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Baseball Savant. That is even better than his number from last year. His control has improved a lot as well.

Tanner Anderson starts for the A's, and I just don't trust him. Anderson had a 6.26 ERA and a terrible 7.39 FIP in Triple A. Anderson has a 7.13 ERA and a 5.31 FIP so far this year in the majors. He is giving up some extremely hard contact, and he allows a lot of fly balls. 

The Twins offense easily ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Minnesota should get plenty of scoring chances against Anderson.

Oakland is 0-4 in Anderson's last 4 starts.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll start by saying this total is far higher than I would usually play an over at, but the baseball is clearly juiced this year and Coors Field is a hitters paradise this time of the year.

The forecast calls for 90 degrees and the wind blowing out by about 6 mph here. It has been warm the last few weeks at Coors Field, and how have things gone? Eight of the last nine games played here have finished at 15 runs or more. 

Now, we see two very flawed starting pitchers show up. Wade Miley is due for regression. The Rockies have pounded left handed pitching in recent weeks.

Peter Lambert is giving up tons of hard contact, and the Astros are finally healthy on offense once again.

Look for a lot of runs from both teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Jhoulys Chacin is a fade candidate for me. Chacin has struggled all season long. Even in his last start where his numbers look good, he was fortunate to strand 100% of runners on base in that game. Chacin's command isn't there right now.

The Reds have a career .371 weighted on base average against Chacin. This Reds lineup is better than they have shown so far this year, and I expect improvement in the coming months.

Sonny Gray has thrown it pretty well this year. Gray has very good stuff, and he is pitching with more confidence right now.

The Brewers are 0-7 in Chacin's last 7 road starts. The Reds are 7-0 in Gray's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML in Game 1 of the Doubleheader on Wednesday* Dylan Cease has been called up to make his MLB debut here. Cease is a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. He throws upper 90's with ease and has nasty secondary pitches as well. Cease will go against a Detroit team that has an awful .287 on base percentage against right handed pitching this year. That is 10 points worse than the second worst team in the majors.

Daniel Norris is battling multiple injuries right now. Norris has a finger injury and has been dealing with a groin injury as well. Norris is 0-6 with a 5.29 ERA in his last nine starts. While the White Sox don't have a great offense, they are much better against left handed pitching than right handers. 

The Tigers are 6-21 in Norris' last 27 starts. The White Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.

Take the White Sox in game one on Wednesday. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a whopping 34-9 at home this year. The Dodgers are the best team in the National League right now, and it isn't close. I'm not saying something couldn't change between now and the playoffs, but the Dodgers are an excellent team.

The Dodgers have so much versatility in the field. The depth they have is amazing. The starting rotation is really deep as well. Ross Stripling would be a number two starter for some teams in the majors, but he doesn't regularly get starts for this team. Stripling has very good control and usually works from ahead in the count.

Taylor Clarke is a guy I'm looking to fade. Clarke had a 7.22 ERA and a 5.91 FIP in Triple A this year. Since coming to the big leagues, Clarke has put up a 6.10 ERA and a 6.04 FIP. Clarke did pick up the win in his last start against the Dodgers, but that was a misleading start. Clarke had a 6.40 FIP and 6.13 xFIP in that contest. How bad has Clarke been of late? He has a FIP over 6 in five of his last six starts.

The DBacks have a mediocre .312 wOBA against right handed pitching. They are elite against lefties, but they will see a solid right hander in this one. 

In the past month, the Dodgers bullpen has been a top ten bullpen in the majors, while the Dbacks bullpen has been a bottom ten bullpen.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The Cardinals offense has been terrible of late. Marcell Ozuna being out certainly hasn't helped, and many guys in this lineup are being too aggressive right now.

The Padres have had some offensive explosions of late, but a lot of those have come against left handed pitching. They are a top 10 offense against lefties and a bottom 10 offense against right handed pitching.

Miles Mikolas has pitched really well of late after a slow start to the season. Mikolas has a 3.18 FIP or lower in six of his last ten starts. Mikolas excels at inducing soft contact.

Joey Lucchesi is getting more swinging strikes this year, and he has managed to get much weaker contact from opposing hitters despite the juiced baseballs this year. 

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jon Lester starts here for the Chicago Cubs. Lester's overall numbers look pretty good, but under the surface there are definitely signs of problems. Lester is allowing way more hard hit batted balls than he ever has before. He has really struggled on the road this year as well. The Reds lineup has had a lot of success against him in a large sample size. Cincinnati has a .351 weighted on base average against Lester.

Anthony DeSclafani is a fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact. He has had major home run issues the last couple years. Where are those issues usually worse? At home, since he plays his home games at Great American Ballpark. Desclafani is giving up as many hard hit balls as anyone in the majors this year. 

The forecast calls for 90 degrees and a 7-8 mph breeze toward center field. That's a clear plus here.

The Cubs are great against right handed pitching. The Reds have struggled badly against right handers this year, but they are 15th in wOBA against lefties. 

Alan Porter is the umpire behind the plate here. The over is 13-2 in his last 15 games behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs have a top ten offense. What are the Cubs really good at doing? This Cubs lineup is great at drawing walks. They are easily first in the majors in walk rate. They can make a starting pitcher work and take advantage of a pitcher who is having control issues. 

Luis Castillo is a really talented pitcher, but something is off with him of late. Castillo has walked 21 batters in his last 27 innings. Now, he must face a Cubs lineup which excels at this skill.

Jose Quintana has struggled this year. Quintana's curveball isn't as reliable as it was a couple years ago. Quintana has been struggling with control of late as well.

The Reds lineup has been a disappointment this year, but I think they will improve the rest of the way. Joey Votto has really heated up, and now Scooter Gennett is back from injury finally. Gennett is an important part of his lineup.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is tough on pitchers. This is an over umpire who doesn't give the corners as much as the average umpire. 

A temperature of 91 degrees with winds blowing out at nearly 10 mph at Great American Ballpark is a big help.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is tremendous. The depth of their lineup isn't matched by many teams, especially not in the National League. Atlanta is fifth in weighted on base average on the season as a whole. In the last 30 days, the Braves rank number one in wOBA. This lineup is really dangerous. 

The Mets are 10th in wOBA in the last 30 days. New York has had a lot of pitching meltdowns and bullpen woes lately, but their hitting has been good. 

Steven Matz has the worst advanced metrics of his career. He has been very inconsistent this year. While he is capable of throwing it really well, he can also give up 8 or 9 runs.

Julio Teheran has a 3.99 ERA, but his SIERA of 5.21 suggests he is in line for some major regression. His hard hit batted ball rate is at the highest of his career. 

The Braves lineup has a career wOBA of .366 against Matz. Teheran was just blasted by the Mets in his recent start against them.

A temperature of 91 degrees and winds blowing out are a big help.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a really high total, but the total is really high for a good reason. Chris Archer and Jhoulys Chacin have been absolutely terrible this year. 

Archer has a 5.56 ERA and a 6.01 FIP on the season. A whopping 12.6% of batted balls against him have been barreled, so saying he has given up a bunch of hard hits is an understatement. Archer has been consistently bad as well. He has a individual game FIP of 4.35 or higher in ten straight starts. 

Chacin has a 5.88 ERA and a 5.87 FIP. Chacin has allowed 43.8% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs (has never been above 39% before in his career). He is also walking 4.41 batters per nine innings.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging 7.43 runs per game in their last 7 contests. Pittsburgh ranks second in wOBA in the last 14 days. 

The Brewers have a top 10 offense in baseball, and they have lot of depth on offense.

Both bullpens have been disappointing. Josh Hader pitched two innings for the Brewers yesterday. Both bullpens have a bunch of injuries right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 14th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching with a .320 wOBA. What about against lefties? The Pirates are awful against lefties. They sit in 28th with a wOBA of only .285. 

Framber Valdez has very good stuff. His single biggest problem has been walks. The Pirates should be a good team for him to face since they are dead last in the majors in walk rate against lefties. They have a pathetic 4.4% walk rate against lefties. Valdez has great spin on his curveball and I think the Pirates will go after it more than most teams do.

Dario Agrazal is a middle of the road prospect for the Pirates. He has been mediocre in the minors, and there is nothing that suggests he would be all that good in the big leagues. 

Houston's lineup has been great even without their stars, and now George Springer is back and healthy. McHugh is healthy and back to help in the bullpen as well.

The Astros have a big lineup advantage and a big bullpen advantage as well.

The Pirates are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The Astros are 41-17 in their last 58 home games.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball. They clearly look like the team to beat in the National League. The Dodgers lineup is excellent from top to bottom. The starting rotation is extremely deep. How deep? Ross Stripling lost his starting spot in the rotation, and he's a very good pitcher. 

Stripling has a 3.08 ERA and a 3.65 FIP. Stripling makes the start here. He isn't likely to pitch really deep in the game, but the Dodgers bullpen has been better than the DBacks bullpen as well.

Robbie Ray has the potential to shut down any lineup when he is really on, but he has struggled badly at home. Ray also has poor control, and the Dodgers are very good at drawing walks. They should make him work tonight. Ray's home ERA is 4.15 in the last three years. His WHIP is a high 1.37.

At this price, I have to invest in the Dodgers tonight. The DBacks are much better against left handed pitching than right handers, and the Dodgers lineup has an impressive .335 OBP against Ray in his career.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play Over* In the last 30 days, the Rockies and Dodgers have been hitting the cover off the ball. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average during that time. Who is second? The Los Angeles Dodgers. These are two top offenses. They both are deep offensively, and they have quite a bit of power.

Dodger Stadium is much more friendly to hitters during day games. With a breeze blowing out at about 8 mph for this one the weather will be a positive.

Paul Emmel is one of the better over umpires in the league, and he can really make it tough on the starting pitcher.

Antonio Senzatela's numbers are the worst they've been in his career so far this season. Senzatels is getting less than 7% swinging strikes, and he is giving up more hard contact. That's a recipe for disaster against this strong Dodgers lineup.

Kenta Maeda is inconsistent and the Dodgers middle relief has been a weakness all season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Luis Castillo has elite stuff. He isn't quite in the superstar category yet, but he is a top 20 starting pitcher in the majors. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Castillo gets a bunch of swings and misses, and he allows only a 85.3 mph batted ball average. Castillo is a rare pitcher who gets a bunch of swings and misses and induces very soft contact.

Jhoulys Chacin isn't good. Chacin has a 5.60 ERA and a 5.75 FIP on the year. He is allowing by far the hardest contact of his career. Chacin often gets behind in the count and that really hurts him.

The Reds are better than they looked earlier this year. With Votto, Puig, and Winker swinging the bat much better of late, this is a team that is capable of making a little noise. The Reds have a top five pitching staff (starters and bullpen combined) in the majors. 

The Brewers are 0-5 in Chacin's last 5 starts. They are at a severe starting pitching disadvantage here, and I don't think that is reflected enough in the line here.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They have definitely cooled off offensively. 

Oakland ranks right in the middle of the pack offensively. The A's aren't as good offensively at home, because their home park is very tough on hitters. 

Neither of these teams have been good at drawing walks of late. Jeremie Rehak is the umpire behind the plate for this one, and his numbers point to him being a clear positive for the under. Rehak ranks in the top five of all umpires in least walks per game. He also ranks in the top five for lowest OBP for the offenses. Rehak is a strike caller.

Mike Fiers knows how to pitch at Oakland Coliseum. Fiers had a 2.91 ERA with a 0.882 WHIP at home last year. So far this year, Fiers has a 2.47 ERA and a great 0.87 WHIP at home. 

Chirinos is a pretty good pitcher as well. He has had a couple bad outings, but on the whole he has done well based on limiting hard contact.

The under is 31-14-1 in the Rays last 46 road games vs. a team with a winning record at home. The under is 5-2 in Fiers' last 7 home starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Tanner Anderson had a 6.26 ERA and an awful 7.32 FIP in Triple A this year. In his two starts in the big leagues he has been decent, but I definitely don't trust him. 

Tampa Bay say Anderson once already, and I think that definitely helps here. Anderson already proved he wasn't good in Triple A, and now he faces a solid Rays lineup for the second time. Tampa Bay should get quite a few scoring chances here.

Kittredge is the opener here for the Rays and he is likely to be followed by Beeks. Kittredge has been excellent in Triple A and he has swing and miss stuff. Beeks has a 2.73 ERA and a 2.94 FIP. Oakland has been good against lefties this year because they have a lot of good right handed bats, but Beeks has actually been better against right handed hitters than lefties so far this year.

Both bullpens imploded last night, but the Rays bullpen definitely has an edge for the season. Tampa Bay is 11th in SIERA as a bullpen unit. The A's rank 21st. 

I definitely prefer Kittredge and Beeks compared to Anderson, and this line is pretty low.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* Charlie Morton and Frankie Montas have both really impressed me this season. Morton has the highest swinging strike rate of his career. He has a 2.37 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. He has proven himself to be an excellent starter.

Frankie Montas has a 2.85 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. Montas has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.6% last year to 11.0% this year. Montas is also allowing softer contact this year. 

The Rays and A's are middle of the pack offenses. Oakland has been great on the road on offense this year, but at home they have struggled. The same was true a year ago. 

The Rays have played a lot of low scoring games against quality teams.

Both of these teams have top ten bullpens and I see this one being low scoring throughout.

The under is 36-17-2 in the Rays last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have been scuffling of late. The Reds have won four straight contests. The Reds are better than they showed earlier this season. With Joey Votto heating up a bit and Jesse Winker and Yasiel Puig finally swinging the bat well I would expect some improvement on offense for Cincinnati.

The Reds rank first in the majors in bullpen FIP. This is a deep bullpen that has an advantage over a banged up Milwaukee bullpen.

Tanner Roark has proven to be a nice pickup for the Reds. Roark's swinging strike rate is up, and he has done a pretty good job inducing soft contact. 

Jimmy Nelson just came back from a long injury. Nelson has looked very bad against two terrible offenses in his first two starts. Nelson's velocity is down about 2 mph from two years ago, and he is giving up a lot of hard contact. He shouldn't be this big of a favorite against a mediocre team. I'll fade Nelson here.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather isn't ideal at Wrigley Field for this one, but that is why the total is 9 at not higher.

Walker Lockett was called up from Triple A to make this start. I don't know why he was called up, but here he is. Lockett has been bad in Triple A for 3 straight seasons. How bad? He has a FIP of almost exactly 5 in Triple A. Also, Lockett is striking out only 3.28 batters per nine innings in Triple A. Wow. Lockett's numbers project as a guy who will struggle in a big way in the majors.

Tyler Chatwood gets a spot start for the Cubs with Kyle Hendricks injured right now. Chatwood was terrible as a starter last year. While he will occasionally throw a good game, Chatwood is far too wild. His inability to find the strike zone generally gets him in big trouble. Chatwood had more walks than strikeouts last year. He has a better ERA than last year, but his advanced numbers aren't much different than last season. 

The Cubs have a top five offense against right handed pitching. The Mets are 10th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors at .371. Blackmon has been the hottest hitter in baseball. This Rockies lineup has tremendous numbers against Robbie Ray as well. The Rockies have a .442 wOBA in a pretty large sample size against Ray. They have actually hit him even better at Chase Field than Coors Field. 

Jeff Hoffman was really bad in Triple A earlier this year. He has pitched a bit better of late, but I still don't trust him at all. Hoffman is up against an underrated offense. The emergence of Ketel Marte as a star has really helped the Diamondbacks this season. Hoffman had an ERA of 7.57 in 7 appearances in Triple A earlier this year. He isn't the answer.

John Tumpane is behind home plate and he is one of the better over umpires in baseball.

Trevor Story is likely to miss this game, but that is more than factored in here with a total of only 9.

The over is 30-13-1 in Ray's last 44 home starts.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* This is too good of a price for me to pass up the White Sox with Giolito on the mound. 

Lucas Giolito has allowed a grand total of six runs in his last eight starts. Giolito has been mowing down hitters. He has thrown a lot more of his offspeed pitches this year, and that has led to a lot more success. Hitters were blasting his fastball in past seasons. Giolito has a 2.22 ERA, and his FIP is 2.71.

Jon Lester started the season very well, but he has struggled a lot in recent weeks. Lester is allowing a lot more hard contact this year. Lester faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 13th in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching. 

The White Sox have been competitive this year, and they clearly have the better starting pitcher going here. 

I'll grab the big price.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have the hottest offense in baseball. In the last 14 days, Atlanta has a wOBA of nearly .400. The Braves have a really deep lineup, and they should make Steven Matz work really hard. Atlanta rates 8th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. 

Max Fried started the season out pitching much better than expected, but he has come down to earth in a big way of late. Fried has allowed 17 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Fried has allowed more hard contact and has been working from behind in the count. The Mets rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

The heat should help the ball fly well in Atlanta. The Braves bullpen has been used heavily of late, and the Mets bullpen isn't good at all.

The over is 21-5-1 in the Braves last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Michael Pineda isn't a guy I trust against a really good Boston Red Sox lineup. Boston can struggle against lefties, but they are elite against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are clearly a top 5 offense in the majors against right handed pitching.

Michael Pineda still struggles with giving up the long ball far too often. He is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings pitched. The Red Sox have plenty of power, and they can spoil good pitches and make a pitcher work. Pineda is allowing more than 43% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs. 

The Twins have beaten up on a weak schedule this year. They are now exactly .500 on the season against teams with a record above .500. Minnesota is a good team, but I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate.

David Price is coming off a really bad start, but he has been very good overall this year. Price had three gems in a row before this last poor start. 

The Red Sox are 67-30 in their last 97 road games against a right handed starter. They are 21-7 in Price's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* I don't like to make a habit of betting against Jacob Degrom, but I have to take the Atlanta Braves at plus money here.

The Braves are as hot as anyone in baseball. I underrated this team prior to the season. I knew the offense could be good, but they are far better than I expected. How good have they been of late? Atlanta has a ridiculous .392 weighted on base average (wOBA). Second best in the majors during that time sits at .364 wOBA. 

Atlanta's red hot run also comes as their bullpen has pitched much better of late. They have been a top ten bullpen in the last month, and the Mets have been a bottom ten bullpen.

Jacob Degrom has been very good this year, but he hasn't been on the level he was last year. Degrom has a 3.12 FIP this year compared to 1.99 a year ago.

Julio Teheran has been pitching great of late. Teheran has eight straight starts where he has allowed 1 earned run or less. 

The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter. The Mets are 0-5 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. A combined 22-1 angle. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Cincinnati Reds have talent, but they are a banged up team and they are finding ways to lose games right now. Scooter Gennett has been out all year, and they really miss him. Nick Senzel may miss this game after taking a foul ball to the eye last night and getting stitches. Joey Votto and Yasiel Puig haven't produced the way they were expected to this season so far.

The Texas Rangers come into this game feeling awfully good about themselves. The Rangers are 11-5 in their last 16 games. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games. Ariel Jurado has been better than expected this year, and the bullpen has been much improved in the past few weeks.

Sonny Gray is a solid pitcher, but the Reds have plenty of flaws and this is a huge price for them to be laying. 

Taking average AL teams and backing them in interleague play has been a great angle in the last decade. The Rangers fit that angle here. The Reds are 29-63 in their last 92 interleague games. The Reds are 5-21 in their last 26 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.

Take Texas. 

*4 Star Play Over* The wind is blowing out at about 10 or 11 mph in Washington. This is a park where the wind blowing out makes a big difference. We saw how big of a difference that can make on Saturday when the ball was flying extremely well.

Archie Bradley isn't a guy I trust, and he now starts. Godley will throw behind him, and he has been in bad form. The Nats offense has heated up a lot of late.

Anibal Sanchez has been solid lately, but he has faced some weaker offenses. I don't think he is nearly as good as he has looked recently. 

Favorable conditions and two offenses swinging the bat well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong "opener" going here in Stanek. He fits this role very well. Jalen Beeks has been throwing it really well also and he is the pitcher who will come in after Stanek.

Griffin Canning looks like a good big league pitcher. He has a nice arsenal of pitches at his disposal and he can limit hard contact.

In 10 of the Tampa Bay Rays last 12 games, the total has finished at 8 or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Washington Nationals have Stephen Strasburg on the mound on Saturday. Strasburg has been excellent all year. He has a good 3.36 ERA, but his FIP of 2.77 suggests he is even better than that. Strasburg appears to have some positive regression coming. According to Baseball Savant, Strasburg is allowing the smallest percentage of hard hit batted balls this year that has has in the past five seasons. He is at a career high in swinging strikes as well.

The Diamondbacks offense has been great against left handed pitching and only mediocre against right handed pitching.

Taylor Clarke isn't a good pitcher. He had a 4.03 ERA in Triple A last year, and in Triple A this year he had 7.22 ERA. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and he gives up a lot of hard contact on fly balls.

The weather here calls for warm weather and winds blowing out 10-15 mph. Strasburg has been good at suppressing home runs, and the Nationals have been playing better of late.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 26-7 at home this year. The Dodgers have what I believe is the best roster in the National League. It is going to be rare to see them at a price like this. 

The Chicago Cubs have played well this year, but I don't see them as on the same level as the Dodgers. The Cubs are only 14-19 on the road this year. Chicago has some stars in the lineup, but they aren't as deep as the Dodgers are offensively.

Rich Hill has been tremendous of late. Hill has allowed an average exit velocity of only 83.5 mph this year, which is in the top 2% of all pitchers in the big leagues. Hill has allowed 2 runs or less in five straight starts. 

Kyle Hendricks is a solid pitcher, but the Dodgers have the best on base percentage against right handed pitching of any team in the majors (.350). 

The Dodgers are a whopping 41-13 in their last 54 home games. They are 22-5 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros start Justin Verlander in this one. Verlander has been tremendous yet again this year. Verlander has 14 starts, and he has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of those 14 starts. Verlander has a 2.40 ERA on the season. His swinging strike rate is at the highest of his illustrious career. 

Brandon Woodruff is a good pitcher with a lot of potential, but he has had several blowups this season as well. He is clearly less consistent than is Verlander. 

The Brewers have a solid bullpen, but this is a bullpen with injury concerns and some depth issues. Houston has arguably the best bullpen in baseball, so the clear advantage here goes to Houston.

This price has dropped significantly, and I can't pass up taking such a great team with Verlander on the mound at this number.

Houston is 43-18 in Verlander's last 61 starts. They are 68-28 in their last 96 home games against a right handed starter. The Brewers are 1-8 in their last 9 interleague road games.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brad Peacock is an underrated pitcher. Peacock has started 11 games for the Astros this year. He has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of those 11 starts so far this year. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of those starts. Peacock has been throwing the ball really well of late. He has a FIP of less than 1.00 in four of his last six starts. This is a guy who can miss bats, and I really like his form of late.

Freddy Peralta is far more inconsistent than Peacock. Peralta is capable of throwing an absolute gem. He's also capable of getting hit around. I'll take my chances here largely because of the Astros injury issues. Without Correa, Springer, and Altuve this Astros offense isn't even close to as good. Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 contests.

These are two excellent bullpens. When I see a total of 9 or higher with two very good bullpens I'm typically looking toward the under.

The under is 17-7 in the Astros last 24 games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rays -1.5* The Tampa Bay Rays have been excellent against right handed pitching this year. They rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Athletics are only 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching.

We have a pitching mismatch here. Tanner Anderson starts for Oakland. Anderson has never started a game in the majors. In fact, he hasn't even started a game in the minors since 2017. Anderson has been terrible at Triple A this year. He has a 6.26 ERA and a whopping 7.27 FIP. Anderson doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and the Rays should be able to get to him.

Charlie Morton has a 2.30 ERA and a 2.69 FIP so far this year. Morton is striking out 11.02 batters per nine innings. His average exit velocity allowed is only 86.1 mph too, so he isn't giving up much hard contact.

The A's played a doubleheader on Saturday. Oakland also had major travel troubles last night. The A's weren't able to get to Tampa until very late. This is a very tough spot for the A's.

The Rays have covered the run line in 36 of their 40 wins this year. 

Take Tampa Bay -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Robbie Ray against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. Ray is an interesting pitcher who can really miss bats, but can also get hit hard on some occasions. Overall, he's a good pitcher, and he is up against a Blue Jays lineup that isn't any good. The Blue Jays are a bottom five offense in baseball. Toronto doesn't pick up many walks and they swing at a lot of balls outside the strike zone. That plays into Ray's strengths. 

Clayton Richard has only started three games, but he hasn't been impressive. He has the same amount of walks that he has strikeouts. He is nearly 36 years old and is clearly near the end of his career. Richard has a 3.55 ERA, but a 6.15 FIP and a 6.03 SIERA this year. He has been very fortunate.

The Diamondbacks offense ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Arizona should be able to create quite a few scoring chances here.

The Blue Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball, and I'll fade them in this spot.

Take Arizona. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* In the last 30 days, the Chicago White Sox rank 28th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Kansas City Royals rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA during that time. Neither of these teams are any good offensively.

Lucas Giolito has been lights out of late. Giolito had been a very highly touted pitcher, but he had some pitches that were getting blasted. Giolito has simplified things and is using an improved changeup to get a lot more swings and misses. Giolito had a 8.3% swinging strike rate last year. His swinging strike rate is a whopping 13.3% so far this year.

Brad Keller is a mediocre pitcher, but he is facing a very weak lineup here. Keller has had a lot of success against them in the past. The White Sox have only a .267 wOBA against Keller in 126 AB's. 

Giolito has dominated the Royals too. Kansas City has only a .238 wOBA against Giolito in 92 AB's. 

The wind will be blowing in about 8 mph here which helps too.

The under is 6-0 in Giolito's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in Keller's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Keller's last 4 starts vs. the White Sox. A combined 24-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees meet the Cleveland Indians tonight in Cleveland. The weather can play a pretty big role in how things go at Progressive Field. With the breeze coming in from right field tonight at about 12 mph throughout this game, it is a big help to the pitching staffs.

German is a solid starter for the Yankees. He has a 3.66 ERA and a 3.82 SIERA. German has an impressive 14.3% swinging strike rate. The Indians swing and miss a lot, and I think he matches up pretty well here.

Plesac starts for the Indians, and he has been great in his first two starts. He can't keep pitching as well as he did in those two games, but he has excellent control and the conditions are favorable tonight.

These two bullpens are excellent. The Indians are a top five bullpen in baseball, and the Yankees are a top three bullpen in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* David Hess is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. Hess has a 7.36 ERA so far this year, and his FIP is is 7.10 so this hasn't just been about bad luck. Hess allows all kinds of very hard contact. His average exit velocity allowed is 91.6 mph. Batters have barreled up Hess on 15.3% of batted balls. In this kind of a sample size, I believe this is the worst I've ever seen from a big league starter. Hess isn't fooling anyone.

Ariel Jurado starts here for the Rangers. Jurado has a solid 2.80 ERA, but his FIP is 3.80 and his SIERA is all the way down at 4.23. Jurado is allowing a BABIP of only .272. That won't continue. He will also give up more home runs than he has thus far. 

Both of these bullpens are really bad, and they are both likely to be in the game for quite a while with this matchup of starting pitchers.

The wind is blowing out at about 8 mph and the game time temperature will be about 90 degrees. That is definitely a plus for the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians offense started the season out in terrible fashion, but they have been respectable of late. Cleveland is 26th in wOBA for the year, but they are 17th in the last 30 days. The Twins are first in the majors in wOBA for the year and 1st in the last 30 days as well.
Martin Perez isn't a guy I trust. Perez walks too many guys, and his SIERA of 4.64 this year suggests he has been very fortunate. 

The Indians are going with a bullpen game as far as the pitching lineup. This Twins offense is tremendous and I don't think the Indians have enough bullpen depth to keep them quiet. 

The wind is also forecast to be blowing out at about 8 mph here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Reds ML* The Cincinnati Reds start Luis Castillo here. Castillo had one really bad start in Milwaukee, but overall he has been brilliant this year. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in all of baseball. Castillo has a really impressive 14.6% swinging strike rate on the season. He is the rare combination of a guy who gets a very high swinging strike rate and can also induce soft contact. His average exit velocity allowed is only 85.0 mph, which ranks in the top six percent in the majors.

Genesis Cabrera didn't impress at all in Triple A this year, but he was called up to the big leagues because the Cardinals were banged up in the rotation. Cabrera had a 6.35 ERA and a 6.86 FIP in nine games in Triple A this year. He was hit hard in his first big league start against the Phillies as well.

The Reds season long offensive numbers are bad, but they rank 13th in wOBA in the last 30 days. With Joey Votto hitting the ball much better and Nick Senzel now leading things off, the Reds offense is better than most believe.

The Reds bullpen ranks in the top 5 in baseball in all major categories. With a big starting pitching advantage and a bullpen advantage, I'll take the road team here.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have been better than expected this year. The emergence of Lucas Giolito as a very good starting pitcher has really helped this team. Giolito has always been a very highly touted pitcher. Now, he has backed off on the use of his curveball and it has really helped him a lot. Giolito has a 2.86 ERA and a 2.87 FIP on the season. 

The Indians have a bottom ten offense in the majors. Cleveland is very inconsistent. The Indians aren't getting the production they need from Jose Ramirez, and this lineup lacks depth.

Plesac starts for the Indians here. He is a young pitcher who doesn't walk many people, and he wasn't intimidated by starting against a great Red Sox offense in Fenway in his first start. That was impressive. 

The White Sox offense has scored 4 runs or less in 14 games since May 14. This is one of the 3 or 4 weakest offenses in the majors.

Giolito has allowed a total of 8 runs in his last 7 starts and both offenses have struggled. Sunday has been the best day for unders in MLB by a wide margin.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He isn't as good as his ERA so far this season would indicate. There is some regression coming, but he is still going to be very good. In fact, his swinging strike rate is at 15.3% which is elite. Verlander is still fooling a lot of hitters.

Brett Anderson is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has thrown the ball well of late. Anderson is streaky and he has a chance here against an Astros lineup that is badly banged up. The Astros rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average, but they are only 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. They are without Altuve, Springer, and Correa. 

The A's bullpen is a top 10 bullpen in the majors. The Astros bullpen is probably the best bullpen in all of baseball. 

Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Astros are likely to play in quite a few low scoring games without their offensive stars.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics rank 15th in weighted on base average. They are without Khris Davis which definitely hurts their offense.

The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the majors in wOBA, but their offense is severely shorthanded right now. The Astros are without Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa. That is 3 of their top 4 hitters who are out right now. 

Mike Fiers isn't a great pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home. This is clearly a pitchers park, and he has been able to use that to his advantage. Fiers had a 2.81 ERA last year at home and he has a 2.67 ERA at home so far this season.

Brad Peacock is a guy who has good strikeout stuff. Peacock has multiple plus pitches, and I think he has a lot of upside.

The Astros rank 1st in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Athletics rank 7th. These are two quality bullpens.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dakota Hudson has potential. He has been inconsistent, but as he has thrown his slider more often in recent outings his performance has improved quite a bit. After having a FIP of higher than 10 in three of his first four starts of the season, Hudson has improved drastically of late. Hudson has a FIP of 3.95 or lower in five of his last six starts. 

Jerad Eickhoff has been solid this year. He isn't spectacular, but he can generally hold his own. Eickhoff is much better when pitching from ahead in the count.

Kerwin Danley is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He has called a whopping 65.99% of pitches a strike so far this year. Danley has been an under machine for the last few seasons. He should help both pitchers in this one.

This is a get away day game and that can usually mean a key hitter or two is out of the lineup. 

The under is a whopping 48-22 in the Cardinals last 70 in game 3 of a series. Those are often get away days and the Cardinals sit out regulars pretty often in these spots.

This number has gotten too high for me to pass up.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* This isn't so much a play on the Rangers as it is a fade of the Seattle Mariners as a -133 favorite with Wade LeBlanc on the mound. 

The Seattle Mariners are 6-22 in their last 28 games. This is not a good team. Texas isn't a really good team either, but they are playing pretty well right now. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games.

Wade LeBlanc is near the end of his career, and he has been injured of late. Since his injury, he has looked terrible in two starts. LeBlanc is getting absolutely crashed. So far this year, a ridiculously high 14.1% of batted balls against him have been barreled. The average exit velocity he has allowed is 92.1 mph. That is among the bottom two percent of all pitchers in baseball. LeBlanc isn't fooling anyone.

Leclerc gets the start as the opener and then Smyly should be the primary pitcher for the Rangers here. Smyly has struggled so far this year, but he does have much higher upside potential than LeBlanc. 

A price grab here going against a team that is struggling in a big way.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Their wOBA sits at a terrible .256 during that time. The White Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games. 

Kansas City ranks 24th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Royals offense isn't as good as they looked earlier this year. 

Lucas Giolito has been absolutely dealing for the White Sox this year. Giolito has a 2.77 ERA, and it isn't a fluke. He has a 2.81 FIP. His strikeout rate was 6.49 batters per nine innings last year, but he is striking out 10.21 batters per nine innings this year. Giolito is throwing harder than ever, and his slider and change up have been excellent. The Royals lineup has 9 hits in 73 at bats against Giolito.

Brad Keller isn't tremendous by any means, but he is a steady guy who the White Sox hitters have only a .186 average against. He can have trouble finding the strike zone, but the White Sox haven't been good at all at drawing walks.

The under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games between these teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Colorado Rockies may well be without Charlie Blackmon again here. Manager Bud Black said on Sunday that there is a chance Blackmon might have to go on the 10 day injured list, which makes him seem at least somewhat doubtful for this game. 

Zack Greinke has been dealing of late. Greinke has a 2.89 ERA on the year and his FIP is only 3.24. Greinke has allowed a grand total of 8 runs in his last seven starts. Greinke has had a FIP of 1.79 or lower in 5 of those last 7 starts. His highest FIP in any game in that seven game stretch is 3.96. He has been dialed in. While many other pitchers have horrible numbers at Coors Field, Greinke is 5-1 with a 4.21 ERA at Coors Field in his career.

Jon Gray is less consistent than Greinke. Gray is certainly capable of throwing the ball very well, but he hasn't been in great form of late. Gray has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last five starts. He has allowed much harder contact this year than Greinke as well. Gray's average exit velocity is a whopping 91.1 mph. Greinke's is only 86.3 mph. 

The DBacks are 31-12 in Greinke's last 43 starts vs. a team with a losing record. 

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* Mike Soroka has a sparkling 1.01 ERA on the year. His strand rate is 87.2% so there's no way he'll keep it going at this rate, but Soroka has some very impressive advanced metrics. According to Baseball Savant, he has allowed a hard hit batted ball only 32.2% of the time this year. He has great control and this Cardinals offense has definitely slumped of late. Soroka has started 7 games this year, and he has allowed 1 run or less in six of those seven starts. He has been really consistent

Dakota Hudson has been very inconsistent this year. Hudson has terrible control. He is walking 4.21 batters per nine innings, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact. The Braves lineup is very deep and they have been swinging it very well of late.

The Braves have a big starting pitching edge here, and they are the team playing much better baseball right now. 

I think this price is too short.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Edwin Jackson in this one. Jackson has played on just about every team in the majors at this point, and he is near the end of his big league career. Jackson isn't a good starter anymore. There is nothing in his statistics in the minors or the bigs so far this year to suggest he will have any success. He has very little control and doesn't miss enough bats.

Cal Quantrill does have a high ceiling, and he goes against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that isn't very good. Quantrill is backed by a top five bullpen, while the Blue Jays bullpen is mediocre. 

The Blue Jays have had fortunate batted ball luck in at bats with runners in scoring position so far this year. The Padres are a much better team this year, and the oddsmakers have been underpricing them of late.

I'll fade Jackson at this short price. Toronto is 1-6 in their last 7 home games. 

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Blake Snell was excellent last year, but he was helped by some clear luck. So far this year, Snell has been even better than a year ago, but has had worse luck. Snell is a clear ace who possesses the rare ability to make batters miss at a really high level and induce very soft contact.

Snell is carrying an amazing 19.2% swinging strike rate so far this year. Only 26.9% of batted balls against him have been categorized as hard hit by Fangraphs. He is striking out more than 13 batters per nine innings and his walk rate is down to 2.2 walks per nine innings.

Shane Bieber is a good pitcher, but he is a couple notches below Snell. Bieber is a high strikeout guy, but he gives up a lot of very hard contact. Bieber has allowed 42.4% of batted balls to be hard hit. Batters have barreled 11.9% of hits against Bieber, which is a very high rate compared to the major league average of around 8 or 8.5%. 

The Rays bullpen is well rested, and they are deeper in the bullpen than the Indians. The Indians have had trouble hitting lefties the past few years. The Rays are much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* This isn't a bet I'm excited to make, but I have to do it. The Detroit Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 home games. Detroit has lost 8 straight games overall. They haven't even been close either. The Tigers have been outscored by a combined score of 63-19 in those last eight games. How can this team be a huge favorite over anyone?

Matthew Boyd is a decent pitcher, but his trend is downward of late. In his first seven starts, only one had a FIP of 3.4 or higher. In his last three starts, he has a FIP of 3.75, 10.08, and 4.66. He's giving up more hard contact and he is giving up the long ball too often.

The Marlins bullpen isn't very good, but it is better than the Tigers bullpen. The Tigers have a bottom three or four bullpen in baseball.

The Marlins have played much better of late, and Trevor Richards is capable of throwing a good game. Detroit has a team batting average of .176 in the last 14 days.

A price grab here on a big underdog. Detroit can't lay this number. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Dodgers pitching staff has been amazing of late. The Dodgers pitching staff has a ridiculous 1.74 ERA over the last two weeks. Rich Hill threw the best he has all year in his last outing at Cincinnati. He threw a little harder than he had been, and he located his pitches very well.

The Rays offenses has come back to earth of late. They do have quite a few injuries, so that is part of the problem. Tampa Bay has scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last ten games. 

Tampa Bay starts opener Ryan Stanek here and Chirinos is likely to follow him. Stanek has been great in the opener role. Chirinos has quality stuff and has thrown his best of late.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he has the second highest called strike percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years according to my umpire database. He's clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds offense ranks 26th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 27th against right handed pitching. With Joey Votto struggling right now, the Reds really need a lot of production from Yasiel Puig (injured and questionable/doubtful to start here) or someone like Scooter Gennett who is on the disabled list with an injury. The Reds won 3-0 last night, but they had only 4 hits in that game.

The Brewers offense is a good one, but they are up against a very good young pitcher in Luis Castillo. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA and a 2.62 FIP this year. Castillo won't keep a 1.90 ERA and he is due some regression, but only 28% of batted balls off Castillo have been hard hit this year. That's one of the lowest percentages of any starter in the majors, and he should continue to be a very good pitcher.

Zach Davies also limits hard contact, and he's up against a struggling Reds offense.

These are two strong bullpens and neither of them have been used all that much in recent days. Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate and he is a strike caller who should help the pitchers here.

The under is 7-0 in Castillo's last 7 road starts. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. an NL Central foe. The under is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 vs. an NL Central opponent. The under is 4-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 38-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres send Chris Paddack to the mound here. Paddack has been amazing so far this year. Paddack enters with a 1.99 ERA and a 2.95 FIP. He has fantastic control and has an impressive 11.7% swinging strike rate. 

Luke Weaver starts for the Diamondbacks. Weaver hasn't gotten a ton of publicity this year, but he has been excellent. Weaver has a 3.16 ERA and a 3.11 FIP. Weaver has an 11.1% swinging strike rate. Weaver was an extremely highly touted prospect for the Cardinals. It never worked out in St. Louis for him, but he seems to be putting it all together in Arizona. 

The Padres have a top 5 bullpen in the majors. The Diamondbacks bullpen is a league average bullpen.

We know San Diego plays in a park that is very friendly to pitchers. 

Arizona's offense is elite against lefties (3rd in wOBA in the majors), but they are mediocre against righties (15th in wOBA). San Diego is 15th in wOBA against lefties and 25th in wOBA against righties.

This one sits above the key MLB totals number of 7. I'll take the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have lost the first two games in this series. Atlanta has been a streaky team this year. The Braves have a very good lineup. Atlanta also has a clear weakness in the bullpen.

Milwaukee starts Brandon Woodruff here. Woodruff has a 3.72 ERA and a 2.99 FIP on the season thus far. Woodruff has an impressive 10.9% swinging strike rate, and he has been pitching his best in his last few outings.

Mike Foltynewicz starts for the Braves, and he has been terrible so far this season. He didn't have a Spring Training because of an injury. He threw four games in Triple A and was hit around. He has started four games in the majors and brings an 8.02 ERA and 7.94 FIP into this one. Foltynewicz is giving up a lot of hard contact, and this is a good Brewers lineup he must try to navigate through here. Until he can show something positive, I see him as a fade candidate. His velocity is more than 2 mph slower than last year right now. He's either hurt or something mechanically is off. 

The Brewers have the better bullpen and they are looking to salvage a game in this series.

The Braves are only 3-13 in Foltynewicz's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Milwaukee.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays send Blake Snell to the mound on Saturday afternoon. Snell has been amazing so far this year. Snell has made 8 starts this year. In 4 of the 8 starts he has had a single game FIP of 0.61 or lower. That is absolute domination. Snell has a ridiculous swinging strike rate of 19.2%. His advanced statistics are actually quite a bit better than last season.

Masahiro Tanaka is a good pitcher, but he isn't in Snell's class. Tanaka's advanced numbers actually are the worst this year of his career thus far. Tanaka has had a swinging strike rate of 15.1% and 14.1% the last two years. So far this year it is only 9.7%. He is allowing more hard contact this year, and his SIERA sits at 4.14. 

The Yankees lineup is very shorthanded right now. They have still been good against right handed pitching, but they rank 23rd in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

The Rays rank 7th in the majors in WOBA against right handed pitching. 

I don't like to make too much of this small of a sample size, but Tanaka has pitched 3 times with Kerwin Danley as the home plate umpire. All 3 have been in the last two years. Tanaka has allowed 18 runs in just 14 and 2/3 innings pitched. His WHIP is 1.909 in those games.

The Rays bounce back from a disappointing loss last night.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Seattle ranks 9th in this same statistic. 

Minnesota's lineup is very deep, and I would expect them to get quite a few scoring chances here. Marco Gonzales' fastball velocity is down about 2 mph from last year. Gonzales has been struggling in recent starts, and I'm wondering if he has some kind of injury. I see him as vulnerable here.

Martin Perez has a minor foot injury, but will start here. Perez may be improved, but I don't think he is as good as his numbers so far this year would indicate.

The Mariners rate 5th worst in the majors in bullpen SIERA. This team was strong in the bullpen last year, but they don't have enough depth this season. The Twins are a mediocre bullpen at best as well.

The over is 7-1-1 in the Twins last 9 road games vs. a left handed starter. The over is 14-3 in the Mariners last 17 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals have both struggled against left handed pitching at times, but both have been excellent against right handed pitching. Both starters here are subpar right handed pitchers.

Texas has definite potential to put up a big number. The Rangers have scored 10 runs or more by themselves already seven times this year. That's pretty impressive for only the middle of May. 

The Royals offense has been far better than expected so far this year. Kansas City has scored 8 runs or more nine times this year. Texas is allowing a whopping 5.82 runs per game on the season thus far.

Texas has the single worst bullpen SIERA of any team in the majors. Kansas City is 12th worst.

Lance Lynn is an inconsistent starter who doesn't keep the ball on the ground very well. Homer Bailey has been better this year than last, but more than 50% of batted balls hit against him this year have been hard hit according to Fangraphs. 

The weather here is an important part of the handicap too. A temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out at 15-17 mph sustained with gusts to 25-30 mph is a big plus.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Royals -1.5* The Kansas City Royals aren't a team I'll be backing often, but I'm looking to fade Shelby Miller. He has made seven starts on the season and Miller has 21 walks and only 19 strikeouts. Miller has a ridiculously high 1.88 WHIP on the season. He has a 7.48 ERA. Miller's hard hit contact allowed is an extremely high 46.3% according to Fangraphs. He isn't fooling anyone.

The Texas Rangers have done a lot of damage on offense against right handed pitching, but they struggle against lefties. While Texas is 6th in weighted on base average against righties, they are down at number 20 against lefties. 

Danny Duffy has pitched well so far this year. Duffy has good enough stuff, and seems to be healthy this season.

The Royals bullpen has been a bit better than I expected. The Rangers arguably have the worst bullpen in baseball. Texas ranks 29th out of 30 in bullpen FIP. The Royals are 23rd. Miller isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Rangers bullpen is very weak in long relief.

Take Kansas City -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The price on the Twins has come down enough that I have to take them here. 

Jose Berrios is a very good young pitcher, but he has struggled on the road. Fortunately, the Twins are at home here. Berrios has superb numbers at home the last few seasons. Berrios has a sparkling 0.93 WHIP at home in the past three seasons combined. Berrios has 44 walks at home in 201 innings. He has struck out 217 batters in those innings.

Berrios' numbers are a bit better than last season. He is only 24 years old, and he has electric stuff. Berrios is great at inducing soft contact, and he has great control.

The Twins may be without Nelson Cruz here, but they have an extremely deep lineup and have very good options to fill in for him.

Tyler Skaggs swinging strike rate has gone down this year, and he is allowing more hard contact. Skaggs has a .375 wOBA allowed against this Twins lineup in a small sample size. 

The Angels and Twins bullpens I rate equally, but the Twins definitely have the better lineup and I have to back Berrios at home here.

The Twins are a whopping 24-5 in Berrios' last 29 home starts.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres here, and I'll be backing the road underdog.

San Diego starts Nick Margevicius here. He has been better than expected, but this is unquestionably a very tough test at Coors Field. Margevicius has allowed only a 32.1% hard hit rate this year, and his changeup induces some weak groundouts. 

Colorado starts Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has struggled badly at Coors Field, and he has been particularly bad in day games. Senzatela has a 1.427 WHIP at Coors Field. He has a 1.428 WHIP in day starts. He has good numbers against the Padres, but much of that has been great starts at pitcher friendly Petco Park. 

The Padres rank ninth in wOBA in the majors in the past 14 days. This is an improved offense. The Padres also have a top five bullpen. This is a deep bullpen and that is a big advantage in this game of questionable starters. 

The Rockies bullpen is a bottom six or eight bullpen in the majors. 

The Rockies are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been elite against left handed pitching this year, but they haven't been very good against right handers. The Braves are also better against lefties than right handers. 

Arizona ranks 17th in the majors against right handed pitching in weighted on base average. The Braves ranks 13th.

Both of these offenses have been struggling of late. In the last 14 days, the DBacks rank 18th in the majors in wOBA and the Braves rank 21st. 

Kevin Gausman has quality stuff and his hard contact rate is way down so far this year. Merrill Kelly is inconsistent, but he has typically been pretty good against batters who haven't seen him before. There is some blow up potential with him, but this is a high total so I'll take that chance.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is definitely one of the top two or three under umpires in baseball. The under is 251-204 (55.2% unders) in Miller's games behind home plate in his career. He should help both pitchers here. 

The under is 13-5 in the DBacks last 18 games against a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. 

Chase Field doesn't play the same as it did a few years ago. The humidor installed at Chase Field has slowed down the scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Play of Day* Zack Greinke has been absolutely dealing of late. Greinke has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last 4 starts. Greinke has had a FIP of less than 2 in his last three starts. He has been allowing weaker contact as the season moves along. 

Greinke has a brilliant WHIP of 0.95 in his last three years pitching at Chase Field. He has gone at least six innings in his last seven starts. This Braves lineup has a .268 OBP against Greinke.

Julio Teheran has pitched better of late. Teheran has improved his control and he has been working ahead in the count more often.

Both of these offenses are quite a bit better against left handed pitching. They are both only mediocre against right handed pitching.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he has the highest called strike percentage of any umpire in the majors in the past five years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* Homer Bailey has been a bit better this year than last, but he still isn't a good starting pitcher. He's backed by one of the five worst bullpens in the majors also. 

Bailey is giving up all kinds of hard contact this year. I would expect Bailey to give up quite a few more home runs than the average starter this year, and this Phillies lineup has a lot of power. 

Jake Arrieta starts here for the Phillies. Arrieta doesn't have drastic home/road splits. He has been very solid on the road. He's backed by a Phillies bullpen that ranks 7th in the majors in FIP and 6th best in SIERA. 

This is a little bit bigger favorite than I usually take, but the odds here are implying a less than 59 percent chance of the Phillies winning this one. I think this line should be around -160, so I have to play this one.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fenway Park is highly influenced by wind. The forecast for Friday evening calls for a temperature in the low 60's and wind blowing out at 13 or 14 mph. 

Since 2005- games at Fenway with a temperature of 55 degrees or warmer and wind blowing out at 8 mph or more are 168-118 (58.7%) to the over. The weather is a clear help here.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a solid pitcher, but he has been worse at home in his career. Rodriguez has a 1.351 WHIP at home vs. a WHIP of 1.245 on the road. He's up against a Mariners offense that is second in the majors in OBP against lefties.

Erik Swanson has started four games this year. Two of them have been against the Cleveland Indians. The Indians offense has been ice cold. Swanson isn't as good as he looked in those games. He is still a youngster with questionable stuff. The Red Sox offense is averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games, and they have a history of hitting right handers hard.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is due for some regression. They have a whopping .376 batting average on balls in play with men in scoring position. Toronto has been very fortunate to put up as many runs as they have this year. Kyle Gibson is far from an elite pitcher, but he has improved from a few years ago. 

Trent Thornton has a high upside and he pitched great in his last start. The Twins offense is good, but they also have overachieved so far this year and that has contributed to this total being set at 9 flat.

The Blue Jays bullpen has pitched well this year. Toronto has improved depth in the pen this season.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. He is a strike caller. In his career, 56% of games Cuzzi has been the home plate umpire in have stayed under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers are 6th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) so far this year. They are 3rd in wOBA against right handed pitching. Texas has some young hitters who have been impressive so far this season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been woeful against lefties, but they are middle of the pack against right handed pitching. The Pirates have Starling Marte back from an injury and that's a big boost to this lineup.

Shelby Miller starts for the Rangers, and he has been terrible this year. Miller has managed to walk 20 batters while striking out only 13 so far this season. He has a 7.99 ERA, and his FIP is barely better at 7.03. Miller is having major problems, and there is no sign of improvement.

Nick Kingham has upside potential for the Pirates on the mound, but he is inconsistent and isn't likely to pitch too deep into the game. The Pirates bullpen is gassed right now. Vazquez has pitched on three straight days and he is the anchor of the bullpen. 

The Rangers bullpen has the worst SIERA in the majors. They are clearly a bottom three bullpen in baseball. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros have one of the most complete teams in the majors. Houston has a deep lineup with several guys who can hit for an average and several power hitters. They have a good starting rotation and an elite bullpen. So far this year, Houston has been the best bullpen in all of baseball.

Kansas City's offense is a major weakness. The Royals have a bottom five bullpen in the majors. The Royals are going to lose a lot of games this season.

Danny Duffy is an inconsistent lefty. The Astros hit lefties very well. Duffy can have control issues, and the Astros are good at drawing walks. 

Collin McHugh is better than he has looked so far this year. His ERA is 4.97, but his SIERA is only 3.97. He's allowing soft contact and still getting a lot of swinging strikes. 

The bullpen mismatch is key here. McHugh is a better pitcher than Duffy as well. 

The Royals are 12-44 in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Astros are 18-4 in McHugh's last 22 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals offense is a mess right now. Washington is without Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Matt Adams, Ryan Zimmerman, and Trea Turner. This offense has been decimated by injuries. 

Milwaukee's Lorenzo Cain is expected to miss Monday's game after a minor injury in Sunday's contest. 

Max Scherzer's advanced metrics show he has pitched into some very bad luck so far this year. Scherzer has a a lower FIP and xFIP this year than he had last year. His BABIP allowed is a whopping .377. That won't continue in the long run. Scherzer is still a dominant starting pitcher.

While Chacin isn't a guy I think is all that good, he has faced the Dodgers twice and the Cardinals twice already this year. Those are two of the best offenses in baseball. 

The Nationals have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on DBacks ML* Zack Greinke has really pitched well after a terrible outing in his first start of the year. Greinke has elite control and he mixes up his pitches very well. The DBacks offense has been surprisingly solid all year long. 

Greinke has a history of pitching well at Coors Field. Greinke has a solid 4.18 ERA at Coors Field. He has a 1.15 WHIP at Coors Field in his last four starts there. This Rockies lineup isn't as good as recent Rockies lineups.

German Marquez has pitched much better on the road than at home. He has fallen victim to some big innings allowed on his home field. The bullpen behind him has been used heavily of late, and Marquez will need to pitch deep into this game.

I feel like this is a 50/50 game, so I'll take the plus price.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The New York Mets wasted their bullpen last night in an 18 inning heartbreaking loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. That's never a good thing, but when Jason Vargas is your starting pitcher for the next game that is particularly bad. Vargas isn't good at all at this point in his career, and he is routinely pitching 4 or 5 innings. 

Milwaukee's Zach Davies has thrown the ball a bit better in recent starts. While the Mets offense is elite against lefties, they are only mediocre against right handed pitching. Josh Hader should be fresh and ready to go in the Brewers bullpen here.

The Brewers easily have the highest hard hit percentage of any team in the league against lefties. Even if Yelich misses this game with an injury, this is still a good lineup against lefties. 

A short price to fade Vargas and a bad bullpen.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The price here has gotten too cheap for me to pass up. Atlanta is a quality team with a tremendous lineup. The Marlins are last in the majors in weighted on base average. Miami is in for a very long season. 

Julio Teheran isn't the reason I'm making this play, but he usually does enough to keep his team in the game. He's backed by the far superior offense here.

Pablo Lopez has some decent stuff, but he rarely works deep into the game and this Braves lineup will make him work. 

The bullpen matchup is a wash here. At this short of a price, I'll fade the Marlins.

Miami is 2-10 in Lopez's last 12 starts. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Kyle Freeland has shown that he is a good fit for Coors Field. Freeland's advanced metrics look similar to a year ago. His xFIP and SIERA are almost exactly the same as last year. He hasn't been able to carry the same strand rate. I still see him as a solid left hander who can keep the ball down. The Rockies defense behind him is tremendous.

Luke Weaver has had a really nice season thus far. Weaver was a very highly touted prospect for a long time. He seems to be putting it together. He has upped his swinging strike rate to 10.4%. He is now walking only 2 batters per nine innings.

The under is 27-6 in Kyle Freeland's last 33 home starts. The under is 16-3 in his last 19 home starts against a team with a winning record. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros in an early game to finish off their series on Thursday afternoon. 

Jose Berrios starts for the home team. Many pitchers have numbers that are a decent amount better at home than on the road. Berrios has some of the most drastic home/road splits in the majors. Berrios has a sparkling 1.085 WHIP at home. His road WHIP is 1.422. His WHIP at home was 0.972 last year. It is 0.738 in three starts at home this year. Berrios has great stuff, and he is able to induce a lot of soft contact as well.

I think Brad Peacock is an underrated pitcher. He has several good pitches and is able to command them all. Peacock is coming off a great start against the Indians. He's backed by an elite bullpen. The Astros rank first in the majors in bullpen FIP so far this year.

This is a get away day game and that often means a key player or two are out of the lineup.

Doug Eddings is behind the plate here, and he has the single highest percentage of strikes called of all umpires in the majors in the past five years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Cubs have been hitting the ball very well of late. The Cubs have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Chicago has been very good against lefties in recent seasons and I would expect that to continue this season.

The Mariners rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Seattle's lineup has some very good right handed hitters who specialize in hitting lefties. 

Marco Gonzales is having a good season thus far, but he is due for regression. Gonzales has a 2.80 ERA and a 4.46 SIERA. His swinging strike rate is down to only 7.3% this season.

Jon Lester has given up a ton of hard contact this year. Opposing hitters exit velocity against Lester averages 92.4 mph. That is in the bottom 4% of the majors. Lester isn't going to keep getting away with that kind of hard contact rate in the long run.

The Cubs bullpen rates slightly worse than average so far this year. The Mariners have a bottom five bullpen in the majors.

The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The San Diego Padres start Chris Paddack here. Paddack is one of the highest rated pitching prospects in baseball. In the minors, Paddack was averaging less than one walk per nine innings pitched, so his control is elite. Paddack has allowed an average exit velocity of only 84.6 mph on batted balls so far this year too. Elite control and ability to induce soft contact are two really important tools for a young pitcher to have from the start.

Julio Teheran has been a subpar starter the last two seasons, and he is off to a slow start again this year. Teheran has a 4.57 SIERA and he is allowing an average exit velocity of 90.0 mph. 

The Braves offense is elite against lefties. They are good against right handed pitching too, but they have had some batted ball luck. The Padres offense is certainly weaker than the Braves, but the Padres are due for positive regression offensively.

The Padres bullpen ranks second in the majors in SIERA. The Braves bullpen ranks second worst in the majors in SIERA.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Matt Harvey vs. Homer Bailey in this contest on Sunday afternoon. Both of these starters have major blowup potential. Harvey has an ERA of 8.03 and his FIP is 5.90. Harvey is allowing a very high exit velocity of 91.0 mph so far on the year. His hard hit allowed percentage on batted balls is 45.2%. That is easily the highest of his career. He isn't fooling anyone. 

Homer Bailey has been terrible for the last few years. He actually pitched pretty well for a couple starts, but he was awful in his last outing. He couldn't find the strike zone at all. Bailey is a streaky pitcher, and he is very capable of being knocked out of the game in the first couple innings.

The Royals have a bottom five bullpen in the majors. The Angels bullpen is slightly worse than league average. 

I see plenty of scoring chances in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros meet in a battle of two of the top teams in baseball on Saturday afternoon. Shane Bieber is coming off a really rough outing, but he has quality stuff and I would expect a pretty good performance here. In his career, Bieber has drastic splits that you don't see very often. Bieber has a 6.12 ERA (1.483 WHIP) at home. On the road, Bieber has a 3.12 ERA (1.128 WHIP). 

Brad Peacock is an above average pitcher. The Astros have so much depth that he can get lost in the shuffle sometimes, but he has multiple plus pitches and I like his ability to induce soft contact. 

The Indians rank 9th in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Astros rank 2nd in bullpen FIP. The Indians have an above average bullpen. The Astros have what I believe is the best bullpen in the majors.

The wind is blowing out here, but a look at the data shows me the wind blowing out in Houston has 105 overs and 109 unders in the last 214 contests. 

O'Nora is a bit of an under umpire, and this number has been pushed up a full run.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This Cardinals lineup is really deep, and they can make things very difficult on an opposing pitching staff. 

Tyler Mahle has been good so far this year, but he has faced some easy competition. Other than one game against the Dodgers, who have a very good offense, he has faced subpar lineups. Mahle's ERA looks good, but his exit velocity allowed is a whopping 93.1 mph. He ranks in the bottom two percent in hard hit batted balls in the majors as well. 

Dakota Hudson has control issues, and he has allowed a lot of hard contact. Hudson has been able to work out of jams for the most part, but I see him as a regression candidate. The Cardinals pitching staff has had great luck when it comes to batted balls. On the other side, the Reds offense has the worst BABIP in the league and it isn't even close. The Reds are far better offensively than they have shown so far this year. 

The wind is blowing out at about 15 mph for this one, and with two pitchers allowing a lot of hard contact I see this number as too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* It would be hard to overstate how bad Shelby Miller has been this year. Miller has 13 walks and only 6 strikeouts this year. For any big league pitcher to have more walks than strikeouts is awful, and Miller has more than doubled up his strikeout number. The Mariners have a patient offense (7th in walk rate), and they should make him work here. Miller has a swinging strike rate of a ridiculously low 5.0%. The Mariners lineup is full of quality youngsters. Miller has a 7.63 ERA, but his FIP is 7.81 and xFIP is 8.11. He hasn't been unlucky. He's just been terrible.

Yusei Kikuchi will serve as the opener and pitch an inning or two here for Seattle. The Mariners are expected to turn it over to Justus Sheffield after that. Sheffield is a decent prospect, but he's been having major problems throwing strikes in the minors. Sheffield is averaging more than 7 walks per nine innings. He has a FIP of over 7 in the minors so far this year. He's likely to give this Rangers lineup several free passes.

The Rangers and Mariners both rank in the bottom ten in the majors in bullpen FIP. Both bullpens are likely to give the opposition several scoring chances.

The over is 6-1 in the Rangers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1-1 in Seattle's last 10 following a win.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The LA Dodgers have the most talent in the National League. The Dodgers offense is only decent against lefties, but they are tremendous against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers are tied for first in the majors with a .360 weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

Chris Archer gives up a lot of hard contact, and year after year his ERA has been worse than his FIP and SIERA. Archer is due for regression now, and he takes on a really good lineup here.

Pittsburgh's lineup is a mess right now with injuries to their top two hitters in Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. Pittsburgh already wasn't good against lefties, and now they are much weaker. Pittsburgh is easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties at .255. The Pirates will face a very good lefty in Ryu here.

Ryu has just two walks so far this year. He has struck out 23 batters. His HR rate allowed should come back down to normal, and I think this guy has top 25 or top 30 stuff in the majors.

Pittsburgh has scored 2 runs or less in four of their last five games. They haven't scored more than 4 runs in any of their last eight games.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers* The Chicago Cubs have taken the first two games from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are 3-3 on this road trip, and you know they would really like to have a winning road trip.

Jon Lester starts here for the Cubs. I'll be looking to fade Lester when I can, because I don't see him as a quality pitcher anymore. In his 3 starts so far this year, he has a 2.57 ERA and a 5.19 FIP. 100% of baserunners against Lester have been stranded on base so far this season. That obviously can't continue. He is sitting on average at 89.8 mph on his fastball. That's down from 91.0 last year. His hard hit batted balls percentage is at the highest percentage of his career. Lester is on a pitch count today, and the middle of the Cubs bullpen has been a big problem. They'll likely be in the game for a while here.

Ross Stripling is an underrated pitcher. Stripling has had excellent control through his career and he's pretty good at inducing soft contact as well. 

I give the Dodgers a big edge on the pitching mound here, and the Dodgers lineup is excellent. At this price I have to fade Lester and take the Dodgers.

Take the Dodgers.

*3 Star Play Over* John Means isn't a guy the Orioles can count on going deep into the game. In his two starts he has gone a combined 8 innings. The White Sox are a bit better offensively against left-handed pitching than righties. Means is a subpar lefty. 

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen is awful. Baltimore's bullpen ranks last in the majors by nearly half a run in FIP at 6.30. 

Ervin Santana starts here for the White Sox. Santana was decent a couple years ago for the Twins, but last year he came back from injury with a huge velocity drop. Santana was throwing his average fastball at 93.6 mph a couple years ago. Now, he consistently sits at 89 or 90 mph. That's a big difference. Santana is giving up a lot of hard contact, and he has a swinging strike rate below 5% (very low) last year and this year. 

The White Sox bullpen ranks 21st in the majors, so they aren't very good either.

The over is 12-1 in the Orioles last 13 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Colorado Rockies are laying too big of a number here. I've waited on this line and it kept getting higher and higher. It was time to pull the trigger. Washington doesn't have Bryce Harper in the lineup, but the Nationals offense even without Harper isn't any weaker than the Rockies lineup.

German Marquez is a good pitcher, but he has some drastic home/road splits. Coors Field hasn't been kind to him. 

Anibal Sanchez is far from a great pitcher, but he added some new pitches last year and was pretty good. He has pitched well in his two starts at Coors Field as well.

A big plus money price on the better overall team.

Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Brewers and Cardinals have two of the best offenses in the National League. Jhoulys Chacin and Adam Wainwright have been very shaky so far this year, and neither of these bullpens have been very good either.

Wainwright was a star pitcher at one point, but he is hanging on right now and simply isn't very good. Wainwright has a bad combination of poor control and he ranks bottom 6% in the majors in fastball velocity. So far this year, his hard hit rate is at the worst percentage in his career. 

Chacin is averaging 5.18 walks per nine innings this year. His control has been much worse this season. Chacin has a 5.66 ERA in his career against the Cardinals.

Mark Wegner is behind home plate and he is one of the best over umpires in the business because of his tight strike zone. That hurts both pitchers quite a bit here since both of these guys struggle with their control.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers have the most talented roster in the National League. We won't see them at this price very often this year. The Dodgers lineup is even more dangerous now that Cody Bellinger has taken the next step. There isn't a real break for an opposing pitcher all the way through this Dodgers lineup.

The Cubs started the season off very slowly before putting together a nice run of late. The Cubs have been beating far lesser teams than the Dodgers though. Chicago is still a good team, but I don't think they are in the same class as the Dodgers. 

Jose Quintana has been great in his last couple starts, but his peripherals indicate some question marks. Quintana's exit velocity allowed is the highest of his career so far this year. Quintana's hard hit percentage is 10% higher so far this year than any other year in his career. He hasn't faced a lineup as good as this one. 

Kenta Maeda is a quality pitcher. Maeda's strikeout rate is down, but his swinging strike rate is actually up a lot this year. His stuff is very good. Maeda is excellent at inducing soft contact.

I see Quintana/Maeda as a wash at worst for the Dodgers. There is no doubt the Dodgers have the better lineup and I give them the bullpen edge too.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians won game one of the doubleheader on Saturday against Atlanta. They then led 7-0 in game two before completely falling apart and losing 8-7. What a way to lose a game. 

Despite blowing the big lead on Saturday, Cleveland clearly has the better bullpen than Atlanta when you look at the advanced metrics on the season. Atlanta has a bottom six or eight bullpen in baseball. Cleveland's bullpen is slightly better than league average. 

Shane Bieber has an elite slider and the Braves do have some guys who swing at pitches outside of the strike zone quite a bit. 

Max Fried has pitched well this year, but I see him as due for regression. 

The Braves are 12-30 in their last 42 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 62-26 in their last 88 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

I like the Indians to bounce back here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Total Perfection* The LA Dodgers have a great offense, but their totals have gotten a bit inflated of late. The Dodgers also have a good pitching staff and an underrated bullpen. Dave Roberts has consistently sat out a key starter or two in Sunday day games in his time as manager of the Dodgers. I would expect a key player or two out of the lineup here.

Clayton Kershaw isn't the best pitcher in baseball anymore, but he is still very good. Kershaw unders at this high of a number are definitely intriguing to me. 

Brandon Woodruff's ERA isn't very good this year, but his FIP and xFIP suggest positive regression should be coming.

Josh Hader didn't pitch yesterday, and he should be available to pitch for more than an inning should the situation arise. That is clearly a plus for the under.

The under is 8-0 in the Dodgers last 8 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Brewers last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A combined 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Mariners offense has been really good so far this year. I think they are a quality offense, but they are due for some regression. Their batting average on balls in play with men in scoring position is .343 so far this year. That number can't continue all year. 

Trevor Cahill starts for the Angels, and he has held this Mariners lineup to a subpar .224 batting average in 86 plate appearances. 

Yusei Kikuchi is a quality lefty who the Angels will be seeing for the first time. The Angels are terrible against lefties. This team was in the bottom five against lefties last year, and they are dead last in wOBA against lefties so far this year. Justin Upton is usually good against lefties, but he is injured now. The Angels have Mike Trout, but the rest of the lineup isn't good. The Angels have a .241 wOBA against lefties on the season.

The under is 34-14-3 in the Angels last 51 games against a left handed starter. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cincinnati Reds have won the first two games in this series. Cincinnati has a big starting pitching edge here. Luis Castillo is a guy that many advanced metrics guys have loved because of his strikeout potential, and he has put it all together so far this year.

Castillo has a 1.46 ERA this year. His FIP is 2.33 on the season, so it definitely hasn't been smoke and mirrors. Castillo has an amazing 16.8% swinging strike rate so far this year. Even more impressive to me is the fact that he has allowed an average exit velocity of just 83.0 mph this year (top 5% in the majors). He hasn't allowed a barreled batted ball yet this year. Castillo is making them swing and miss often, and even when they hit it they aren't hitting it hard.

Eric Lauer starts for the Padres. Lauer has struggled early on this year. His hard hit rate allowed on batted balls this year is an awful 46.8%. His average exit velocity allowed is 2 mph faster than a year ago at 88.7 mph. Lauer isn't a strikeout pitcher, and he's giving up a lot of hard hit balls.

The Reds offense isn't all that good, but they are better than they have shown. The Reds have a .228 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That's 16 points lower than anyone else in the majors. That will regress to the mean over time.

We have the much better starting pitcher here and because the Reds started so poorly this year, the price comes cheap.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers have absolutely crushed Jhoulys Chacin in his career. How hard have they hit them? The Dodgers lineup has a stunning .446 wOBA in 123 plate appearances against him. 

Chacin's velocity is down this year, and his batted ball hard hit percentage allowed is the worst of his career. His swinging strike rate is also down to 7.9%.

The Dodgers have what is one of the best lineups in baseball, and I see them having success again here.

Ross Stripling is a quality starter who is underrated by many. Stripling has excellent control and his WHIP has always been far above average. In a small sample size, he has pitched well against the Brewers. 

The Dodgers have heated up again of late, and I like the short price they are laying here.

Take the Dodgers.