05-20-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
5-15 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* Doug Davis is on the hill for the Cubs in this one. Davis had an ERA above 7 last year. He was decent in his one start this year, but that was against the Giants. The Red Sox are starting to hit the ball better, and Davis walks far too many hitters. Jon Lester is nearly unbeatable at home, and I don't think the Cubs are playing good enough baseball to beat him tonight. The Red Sox are 42-13 in Lester's last 55 home starts. The Red Sox are also a ridiculously good 76-28 in their last 104 interleague games. I expect Boston to roll in this one. Boston -1.5 is the play.
|
05-19-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers -107 v. San Diego Padres |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-107 |
20 h 60 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Aaron Harang started the year brilliantly, but he has come back to earth of late. The Brewers have several guys (Hart, Weeks, Fielder, Braun, etc) who have hit Harang well in their career. Chris Narveson has had just one really bad outing this year, and I think he can tame the Padres weak offense. The Brewers have a much better lineup and they are at least even in the starting pitching matchup here. I like the value on the Brewers moneyline here!
|
05-19-11 |
Atlanta Braves -106 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Moneyline Bookie SMASHER* I was on the Braves last night, and Atlanta certainly should have won that game, but baserunning miscues and errors meant the Braves beat themseleves in extra innings. I'll take Atlanta again in this one. The Diamondbacks start Collmenter, who has been absolutely terrific, but he hasn't faced a strong offense yet. I think the Braves will get to him some. Jair Jurrjens is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball at this point. Jurrjens hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his starts this year. The Braves are 4-0 in his last four starts. I don't think the books are giving him enough respect. I like the Braves in this one!
|
05-19-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Florida Marlins OVER 9 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* The Chicago Cubs have the second best team batting average in baseball. They have struggled to hit in clutch situations, but Chris Volstad doesn't have overpowering stuff. On the other hand, the Cubs defense is dreadful, which means the other team often gets easy runs. Casey Coleman is on the hill for the Cubs, and he has a 7.22 ERA this year. The over is 7-1 in the Cubs last 8 games. The over is 8-3 in Volstad's last 11 home games. I think both teams will get quite a few hits in this one, and I think 11 or 12 runs is fairly likely. Take the over.
|
05-19-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
11-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Brian Runge is the home plate umpire in this one and you won't find many better 'under' umpires than than him. The under is 53-31 in his last 84 games behind the plate, and this year he has called nearly 65% of pitches a strike, which is the highest of any umpire in the majors. Nick Blackburn and Tyson Ross are both pitching extremely well of late, and neither team has a strong lineup at all right now. The under is 9-4 in Blackburn's last 13. The under is 5-1 in Ross' last 6 starts. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. Take the under.
|
05-19-11 |
Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Cardinals beat the Houston Astros on Wednesday night, but it was a costly win. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday were both injured in the win. Neither of them are expected to be in the lineup on Wednesday afternoon. Colby Rasmus will miss this one as well. The Cardinals offense will be severely short-handed. Houston's offense is one one of the worst in the majors, and Kyle McClellan has been very good at home. On a get away day in the afternoon I think this will be a pitcher's duel. Take the under.
|
05-18-11 |
Atlanta Braves -107 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Atlanta Braves are a better team than the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I believe they'll have a significant pitching advantage in this one as well. Julio Teheran has been dominating the minor leagues the last few years. In fact, he is ranked as one of the top five prospects in all of baseball by many publications. He has gone 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in AAA this year. Joe Saunders isn't very good, and he is a fly ball pitcher in a ballpark that is not kind to fly ball pitchers at all with the roof open. The roof should be open tonight. Saunders has a WHIP of 2.3 this year with the roof open. I think the Braves will take it to Saunders, and Teheran will pitch well. Take Atlanta in this one!
|
05-18-11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 56 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cincinnati Reds have won five straight and eight of their last nine overall. The Pittsburgh Pirates were briefly one game above .500, but they have since dropped six straight. In each of those losses they have been beaten two or more runs and failed to cover the +1.5 runline. The Reds have covered the -1.5 runline in seven of their last eight victories overall. Bronson Arroyo has a 3.42 ERA against the Pirates in his career. Charlie Morton has a 5.18 ERA against the Reds in his career. The Reds have the much better lineup as well. Pittsburgh is 4-18 in Morton's last 22 road starts. The Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 games against a right-handed starter. I like the Reds to win comfortably. Take Cincinnati -1.5.
|
05-18-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays -103 v. Toronto Blue Jays |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Under the Radar Gem* The Tampa Bay Rays have been playing very good baseball of late. Toronto has won six straight as well. Something has to give in this matchup, and I'm going to go with the team who has the better pitcher. Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in the league. In his last outing he threw a complete game shutout. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start this year. Jesse Litsch is a decent starter, but the Blue Jays are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts against Tampa Bay. Toronto crushes left-handed pitching, but they are only average against right-handers. I like Tampa Bay to win this one.
|
05-17-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 57 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Chase Field becomes a hitter's paradise with the roof open. This proved to be very true last night as the baseball was carrying extremely well in a 8-4 San Diego win. The Padres bats are scorching hot right now, and I expect them to score a few runs again. The Diamondbacks are solid offensively and Tim Stauffer will likely have trouble with the conditions here. The over is 12-3-3 in the Padres last 18. The books haven't caught up with the Padres hot bats of late, and the open roof makes this one a solid value on the over.
|
05-17-11 |
New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-102 |
17 h 57 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Yankees have dropped six games in a row. The Tampa Bay Rays are in the lead in the AL East. Tampa Bay's offense is much improved with Evan Longoria in the middle of the order. BJ Upton is swinging a hot bat right now as well, which makes a big difference for the Rays. James Shields has been good this year, but his history against New York isn't good at all. In his career he has a 4.91 ERA against the Yankees. Ivan Nova is inconsistent and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Rays score several early against him. I think 8.5 is too low here. Take the over.
|
05-17-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 8 |
|
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
14 h 37 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Ubaldo Jimenez was one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball last year. He hasn't been the same pitcher so far in 2011. He has just one quality start this year and his ERA is 6.67. Jonathan Sanchez has been struggling mightily with his control this year, and I think that will hurt him quite a bit at Coors Field. I think the books are lining this game more like it was last year. These pitchers are both struggling now, and this is definitely a hitter's ballpark. The wind will be blowing out in this one. The over is 6-0 in Jimenez's last 6 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in Sanchez's last 4 starts in Colorado. Take the over.
|
05-16-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers -110 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 11 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are short-handed offensively right now. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are solid in the middle of the order, but the rest of the lineup is quite weak. Jon Garland isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't dominant at his point in his career either. Shaun Marcum has been terrific this year and I think he is one of the most underrated starters in the majors. Marcum has a 1.14 ERA in five road starts this year. He also has an ERA of just 1.42 against the Dodgers in his career. The Brewers have Weeks, Fielder, Braun, McGhee, Hart, and others in a strong lineup. I like Milwaukee to win this one.
|
05-16-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 53 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field becomes a massive hitters ballpark when the roof is open, and I would expect it to be open on Monday night. The San Diego Padres were terribly offensively until the last four games, when they have stunningly starting hitting the cover off the ball. San Diego has scored 13, 7, 9, and 8 runs in their last four games. Armando Galarraga has given up six home runs in just 18 innings at Chase Field this year. The ball should be flying out again Monday night. Clayton Richard is a solid pitcher at home, but he struggles on the road because he allows a lot of home runs. The over is 7-1-3 in the Padres last 11. I like the over in this one.
|
05-16-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox -120 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Chicago White Sox underperformed badly to start out the season, but this is not a bad team. The Texas Rangers are without Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz right now. Colby Lewis hasn't been very good of late, and he has been terrible against the White Sox in the past. At US Cellular Field Lewis has an outrageous ERA of 11.15. Lewis has a WHIP of 2.22 in his starts at Chicago. Edwin Jackson is good at home and the White Sox are 4-1 in his last five home starts. I think we are still getting a good value on the White Sox because of their terrible start. Take Chicago.
|
05-15-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
4-3 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* Trevor Cahill continues to fly under the radar despite being one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. People talk more about Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, but Cahill is the real ace of this staff. Cahill has allowed more than one run in a game only once this year, and that was on the road. At home his ERA is 1.03. The under is 17-5-1 in Cahill's last 23 home starts. The White Sox offense will likely struggle with this pitcher who keeps the ball down in the zone. Mark Buerhle hasn't fared well against Oakland, but it has usually been to due to a lack of run support. The under is 7-1-1 in his last 9 starts against Oakland. I like the under in this one today.
|
05-15-11 |
New York Mets v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both of these have terrible bullpens, and I don't either of the starting pitchers will make it very deep into this game. Aneury Rodriguez has been pulled after about 80 pitches in both of his first two starts. Chris Capuano was solid in his first start against Houston, but I think the Astros will get to him in this start. Capuano simply doesn't have overpowering stuff at this point. I think both pitchers are capable of giving up big innings here, and the bullpens will contribute to the total. Take the over.
|
05-15-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 |
|
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* The Tampa Bay Rays were held to four hits and no runs by Brad Bergesen on Saturday. With a healthy Evan Longoria in the middle of the lineup, the Rays don't have a bad offense. I think they'll bounce back against Jake Arrieta in this one. Andy Sonnanstine is pitching for the Rays, and he has never proven to be a very effective starter. The over is 4-0 in Sonnanstine's last 4 starts against Baltimore. Derryl Cousins is a nice 'over' umpire as well. The over is 9-3-2 in his last 14 games behind the dish. Expect a higher scoring affair here. Take the over.
|
05-15-11 |
Florida Marlins v. Washington Nationals -110 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 18 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Florida Marlins will be looking for the sweep in this one, but they'll have Javier Vazquez on the mound. Vazquez has been terrible this year. Vazquez has a WHIP of 1.87 this year and his ERA is 6.88. Jason Marquis has quietly been having a pretty good season for the Nationals. Marquis generally pitches quite well at home. The Nationals are 5-1 in Marquis' last 6 starts overall, and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The Nationals will be fighting hard to avoid the sweep in this series. I think they'll win this one. Take Washington.
|
05-15-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 6.5 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* It's Roy Halladay vs. Tim Hudson is this amazing pitching matchup. I will come right out and say I generally hate to play an 'under' on a total set at 6.5. In this case I believe it is a solid value. Roy Halladay has amazing numbers just about everywhere, and he is the best pitcher in the game, but his numbers against Atlanta are amazing. In 16 innings at Turner Field he hasn't allowed a run. In 35 and 2/3 against the Braves overall he has allowed a total of five earned runs. Tim Hudson is a better pitcher during the daytime, and he has been great at home. Shane Victorino and Jason Heyward are both expected to miss this game, which is big for this bet as well. Take the under.
|
05-14-11 |
Chicago White Sox +107 v. Oakland A's |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Chicago White Sox have come alive over the last few games. This is a team that is far better than their current record shows, and they have a history of going on long winning streaks. I like Oakland's pitching staff, but this Oakland offense is not good at all. Gavin Floyd has handled them very well in the past. Matsui is 1 for 10, Ellis 1 for 12 and Suzuki is 0 for 8, so several of the A's main contributors don't hit Floyd well at all. Tyson Ross has been solid this year, but I think his tendency to walk batters will hurt in this one. I like the White Sox to keep it going with another win. White Sox ML is the play here.
|
05-14-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 |
|
9-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 60 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Runline ROUT* The San Diego Padres aren't a very good team at all this year, and while their offense has hit the ball well the last couple games, this isn't a good offense. Colorado has plenty of guys who can take it deep and Aaron Harang gives up a ton of home runs. Harang benefits in PetCo because it is a pitchers park, but that won't be the case at Coors Field. Chacin has been great at home, and I think the Rockies are a much better team than the Padres. The Rockies are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings with San Diego. Take Colorado -1.5.
|
05-14-11 |
Florida Marlins v. Washington Nationals UNDER 8 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 18 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Doug Eddings is one of the best 'under' umpires in baseball. Eddings has a very wide strike zone and he has been a solid umpire for several years. Anibal Sanchez has been pitching brilliantly of late, and he has dominated the Nationals in the past couple years. Livan Hernandez has been solid the past couple years because of his ability to keep the ball down in the zone. How about a couple big trends? The under is 27-12-2 in Sanchez's last 41 road starts. The under is 17-5-1 in Hernandez's last 23 home starts. Take the under here.
|
05-13-11 |
Chicago White Sox +108 v. Oakland A's |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
108 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* It was bound to happen at some point, and it seems the White Sox have finally started to play some better baseball. The White Sox have a solid lineup and some fairly talented pitchers, but things weren't clicking earlier this year. Chicago took two out of three games at Seattle and two out of three at Los Angeles. The White Sox are now up to 10-12 on the road this year. Phillip Humber has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Humber has been outstanding and it has been against some high quality lineups. The Athletics do not have a good lineup. Humber has allowed just 2 homers in 39 innings this year and he has great control of his pitches. Brandon McCarthy is solid as well, but I give the White Sox the edge offensively. Take Chicago.
|
05-13-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* Jeremy Guthrie has typically been tremendous against Tampa Bay. In his start against the Rays last weekend he was terrible, but I don't think that will happen twice in a row. The under is 6-2 in Guthrie's last 8 starts against Tampa, including 4-0 in his last 4 at Tampa Bay. Jeremy Hellickson is a very good young pitcher, and he typically pitches much better at home. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The under is 37-13-1 in the Rays last 51 home games. I think this one stays low scoring. Take the under.
|
05-13-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 9.5 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-101 |
17 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees Total DOMINATION* Both offenses have been struggling of late, so we actually get a bit of a bargain on the over in this case. Clay Buchholz has been terrible against the Yankees in the past. In his career he has started six games against them and his ERA is 6.26. Bartolo Colon has an ERA of just over 4 against the Red Sox. Colon was shelled in his last start, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the start of a slump for him. Both of these teams are stacked offensively. The trend has been strongly toward the over in recent meetings. The over is 18-7-2 in their last 27 meetings. Take the over.
|
05-12-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 40 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Matt Cain and Daniel Hudson are both very good pitchers and neither of these offenses is particularly strong. Bill Miller is a great umpire to have behind the plate if you are looking for an under. The under is 57-26-6 in Miller's last 89 games behind home plate! The under is 10-2 in Hudson's last 12 starts as oddsmakers continue to underestimate him as a pitcher. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. The under is 8-2-1 in Arizona's last 11. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4. I really like the under in this one.
|
05-12-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-120 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* B.J. Upton has been hitting the ball well of late, but he will start serving a two-game suspension in this one. Grady Sizemore may well miss his second straight game with a minor knee injury. Justin Masterson has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this year. Masterson has been brilliant in day games in his career. In 40 games pitched during the day he has a 2.99 ERA. James Shields has an ERA of under one in his last three games, and he has also been terrific in day games in his career. The high humidity in Cleveland won't help the ball travel very much on Thursday afternoon. Take the under.
|
05-11-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Johnathan Sanchez has been struggling in a big way of late to find the strike zone, but I think he gets the perfect umpire here to help his cause. Phil Cuzzi has one of the biggest strike zones of any umpire, and he'll likely give Sanchez the corners. Galarraga is another pitcher who struggles with walks and he should benefit from having Cuzzi behind the plate. The under is 15-6-5 in Cuzzi's last 26 games behind the plate. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. Take the under.
|
05-11-11 |
Chicago White Sox +101 v. Los Angeles Angels |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
101 |
20 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Jake Peavy will make his season debut for the White Sox in this one. Peavy has been working extremely hard in rehab for a long time and he is extremely amped up for this one. Peavy has pitched in the playoffs before, but he said that this game means more than any other start has to him. Chatwood is a pretty good young pitcher, but he walks too many batters. The White Sox lineup is starting to put it together of late, and I think they'll make him pay for those walks. I like Peavy to pitch well here. Take the White Sox.
|
05-11-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays -119 v. Cleveland Indians |
|
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* David Price is one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. The Cleveland Indians have hit lefties well this year, but Price is much better than your average lefty. Price fared very well against the Indians last year, and the 2010 Indians couldn't hit left-handers well at all. I think Cleveland's offense will slowly start to show its weakness against lefties again this year. The Rays are 7-1 in Price's last 8 road starts. Carrasco has been injured and will start this one for the Indians. I think the Rays have a major pitching advantage. Take Tampa Bay.
|
05-11-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 |
|
3-9 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox appear to be finally putting it together on offense. This team is simply too good to be struggling at the plate all year long. On the other hand, John Lackey has been bad this year, and he struggled mightily against Toronto last year as well. Litsch isn't an overpowering pitcher and Boston should be able to get to him. Lackey will likely give up some long balls against a Toronto team that has some power hitters. The over is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts against Toronto. Take the over.
|
05-11-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 |
|
13-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* John Hirschbeck is one of the best 'under' umpires in the business. Hirschbeck consistently has a very wide strike zone, and I think both pitchers will benefit nicely in this one. Stauffer has been solid all year and Wolf is a pitcher who relies on getting the corners. Both teams exploded for 8 and 6 runs last night, but neither of these offenses have been very good at all this year. San Diego has the worst offense in the league. I think on a get away day with some players resting this total is set too high. Take the under.
|
05-10-11 |
Detroit Tigers +107 v. Minnesota Twins |
|
10-2 |
Win
|
107 |
18 h 40 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Dog of the Day Play* Francisco Lirano threw a no-hitter in his last outing. As strange as it may sound, I still think Liriano's mechanics look a bit off right now. Liriano has been wildly inconsistent this year, and the Twins are just 2-8 in his last 10 starts overall. They are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. The Twins lineup is just not good right now. They are missing Mauer, Young, Thome, and others. Detroit has Victor Martinez back and their lineup is solid. Rick Porcello has pitched pretty well this year. I like the Tigers to keep their recent momentum going against the slumping Twins.
|
05-10-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 |
|
6-8 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres have an absolutely terrible offense. They rank last in all of baseball in runs per game at just 3.09. The team is also last in batting average at .216. The Milwaukee Brewers have struggled hitting lefties this year. Milwaukee averages just 2.4 runs per game against left-handed starters. Clayton Richard is a solid lefty, and Shawn Marcum is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. Both offenses have been struggling and I think these two pitchers will both pitch well tonight. Take the under.
|
05-10-11 |
Cincinnati Reds -120 v. Houston Astros |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Moneyline CASH* The Cincinati Reds are playing better baseball of late. I still think the Reds have a good shot at winning the NL Central again this year. Homer Bailey made his first start in the majors last week against the Astros, and he looked very good. Bailey had great control and he allowed just one run against the Astros. He bested Brett Myers and the Astros in that game, and I think the same will happen tonight. Myers hasn't had his best stuff this year, and the Reds have a much better lineup than Houston. The Reds are 21-8 in Bailey's last 29 starts. Take the Reds ML.
|
05-10-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs +108 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Cards/Cubs Winner* Chris Carpenter and Carlos Zambrano square off in Game One of this huge MLB rivalry. Carlos Zambrano has a terrific history against the Cardinals. In fact, the Cubs are 17-5 in Zambrano's last 22 starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals are just 1-7 in Carpenter's last 8 road starts overall. The Cubs are 14-3 in Zambrano's last 17 starts overall. The last five times Zambrano and Carpenter have matched up against one another it has been the Cubs who have come out victorious. I'll take the Cubs in a mild upset.
|
05-10-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Baltimore Orioles -109 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Moneyline Value Play* I'll be the first to admit that fading Seattle has cost me quite a bit of cash this year, but I still think this Mariners team is much worse than they have been playing. Pineda is a very good young pitcher, but it seems strange to the Mariners barely an underdog against an improving Orioles team on the road. Jake Arrieta is a very solid young pitcher as well. Arrieta had one bad start this year, but in 6 of his 7 starts he has allowed three earned runs or less. The Orioles have a much better lineup. I'll take the Orioles at home.
|
05-09-11 |
New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The first time the Colorado Rockies faced Chris Capuano this year they scored seven runs off him in less than six innings. This time he will be pitching in Coors Field (with the wind blowing out). I think the Rockies will tee off in this game. Chacin has been consistently good for the Rockies of late, and I think he gives them a solid pitching edge in this game. I think this one has the potential to get ugly. Take the Rockies on the runline here.
|
05-09-11 |
Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers UNDER 8.5 |
|
7-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
19 h 43 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Trevor Cahill is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.Cahill has a great sinker and he keeps the ball down well. The Rangers are missing Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, and Cahill has pitched extremely well against Texas in the past. A couple of weeks ago Cahill blanked the Rangers over seven innings. C.J. Wilson is turning into a legitimate ace, and I don't like this Oakland offense much at all. Expect both starting pitchers to put forth a solid effort here. Take the under.
|
05-09-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Florida Marlins OVER 9 |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
104 |
18 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Javier Vazquez just hasn't had his "A Game" at all this year. Vazquez has an ERA of 6.39 for the year. The Phillies may be without Utley, but they still have Rollins, Victorino, Howard, Polanco, Ibanez, and plenty of pop in the lineup. Joe Blanton is pitching for the Phillies. Blanton has a 5.92 ERA this year overall, and he is nursing a minor elbow injury as well. The over is 21-7 in Blanton's last 28 starts. The over is also 7-2-2 in the Marlins last 11 games overall. I expect a high scoring affair. Take the over.
|
05-09-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 37 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH Special* Josh Beckett has looked like the Josh Beckett of old this year. The Minnesota Twins lineup is extremely short-handed right now. No Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and no Jim Thome. The Red Sox have hit the ball very well in two straight games, and they appear to be trying to come out of their offensive slump. Boston is too good offensively to slump for too much longer. Nick Blackburn simply hasn't been good, and I expect Boston to hit him pretty hard here. The Twins are 1-4 in Blackburn's last 5 starts. The Red Sox are 19-9 in Beckett's last 28 home starts. Take the Red Sox -1.5.
|
05-08-11 |
Colorado Rockies -120 v. San Francisco Giants |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
14 h 53 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Moneyline Cash* The Colorado Rockies have lost two straight very difficult decisions to the Giants in San Francisco. I think this will be the Rockies chance to exact some revenge. De La Rosa has been a good pitcher on the road, and he has great numbers against the Giants. The Rockies are 9-1 in his last 10 starts against San Francisco. Vogelsong simply isn't a very good starting pitcher at this point, and I think Colorado can knock him out of this game fairly early. I like the Rockies avoid getting swept. Take Colorado.
|
05-08-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
15 h 0 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I was very surprised to see this number come out at 7.5. Dan Haren is one of baseball's best pitchers, especially in the first half of the year. Fausto Carmona has been a little inconsistent, but he has pitched well against the Angels in the past. Paul Nauert is the umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. How about some impressive trends? The under is 9-1-1 in Haren's last 11 home starts. The under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two in LA. The under is 4-0 in Carmona's last 4 against the Angels. This is my play of the day. Take the under.
|
05-08-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays -115 v. Baltimore Orioles |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Bring Out the Broom ML* The Tampa Bay Rays have been playing some terrific baseball of late. The Baltimore Orioles are an improving team, but they often go on long streaks and slumps. Tampa Bay has won seven in a row on the road. Wade Davis has had a quality start in every one of his starts this year. The Orioles are 0-7 in Bergesen's last 7 starts overall. The Orioles are also a horrific 33-72 in their last 105 Sunday games. The Rays have the better team all around. I like Tampa Bay on the moneyline.
|
05-08-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Florida Marlins UNDER 8 |
|
0-8 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Livan Hernandez has quietly been a very solid pitcher the last couple years. He has been an 'under' bettors best friend. The under is 34-15-2 in his last 51 starts overall. The under is 15-5-1 in his last 21 road starts. Anibal Sanchez has been in great form of late as well. The under is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 5-1 in Hernandez's last 6 against the Marlins. The under is 5-1 in Sanchez's last 6 against the Nationals. I like the under a lot in this one!
|
05-08-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -116 v. New York Mets |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 2 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* Clayton Kershaw is a very good pitcher, and I think he is really starting to mature. R.A. Dickey is erratic and I don't like to back him very often. Knuckleballers tend to run hot and cold and Dickey has been pitching poorly of late. Ethier and Kemp are in the middle of the Dodgers order, and I think the Dodgers have a huge edge in the pitching department here. The Mets bullpen is a problem area as well. The Mets are 0-6 in Dickey's last 6 home starts. Take the Dodgers here.
|
05-07-11 |
New York Yankees v. Texas Rangers OVER 10 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 21 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* The under is 9-1-3 in the Yankees last 13 games, and I actually think that is why we are getting this line at 10 instead of 11. Derek Holland has a 8.10 ERA in his four games against the Yankees. Bartolo Colon has pitched well so far this year, but the Texas heat and this ballpark should be tough on him. This park is notorius for a wind tunnel that pushes the ball out toward center with a south wind, and that is what is expected on Saturday night. Both pitchers are very capable of giving up the long ball, and I think the over is the way to go here.
|
05-07-11 |
Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics have one of the weakest offenses in all of baseball. Oakland does have a very good pitching staff though. Brandon McCarthy is largely flying under the radar, but he has been very good this year. Luke Hochevar hasn't been good so far this year, but history tells us he is generally solid at home. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one, and he is a huge under umpire. Miller has a large strike zone and both of these pitchers should use that to their advantage. I expect a low scoring affair here. Take the under.
|
05-07-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -127 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-127 |
15 h 32 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals are playing just as well as anyone in the National League right now. Albert Pujols is having a down year at this point, and they are still leading the league in offense. Lance Berkman is absolutely hitting the cover off the ball, and Matt Holliday has been terrific as well. Pujols will heat up and this offense has the chance to be something special. Lohse is a very good pitcher at home, while Yovani Gallardo has been struggling all year. Gallardo has an ERA of 8.44 in his last three games. The Brewers are 0-4 in Gallardo's last 4 starts against the Cardinals. Take St. Louis.
|
05-07-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 |
|
8-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeremy Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in the game right now in my opinion. He has good command and high quality stuff. The Rays are a great 'under' team, partially because they play terrific defense. Tampa Bay has committed the least errors in baseball. Jeremy Guthrie is on the mound for Baltimore, and he has been solid all year. Guthrie has a great track record against the Rays. The under is 6-1 in his last 7 starts against the Rays. The under is 5-2 in his last 7 starts. The under is 20-7-1 the last 28 meetings between these two. Take the under.
|
05-07-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Boston Red Sox continue to struggle, but I do believe their bats will wake up very soon. Boston is hitting left-handers better than righties so far this year, and I think Brian Duensing is the type of guy that Boston can hit. Clay Buchholz doesn't pitch well during the day (4.68 ERA in his career) and he hasn't fared well against the Twins (6.57 ERA). The over is 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 games at home. I think the Red Sox are due for a breakout game, and the Twins offense is playing with some confidence in the last three contests. Paul Schrieber is behind the dish, and he has a very small strike zone. Take the over.
|
05-06-11 |
Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -113 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 59 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Matt Cain hasn't pitched that well in his last three starts, but I think he'll get it back going here. Cain has had success in the past against the Rockies. The Giants are 25-9 in Cain's last 34 home starts. Ubaldo Jimenez simply hasn't had it thus far this season. Jimenez is walking for too many batters and his ERA is 7.20 so far this year. The Rockies have the better lineup, but Cain is pitching much better than Jimenez right now. At this short price I like the Giants moneyline.
|
05-06-11 |
Cleveland Indians -113 v. Los Angeles Angels |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
21 h 27 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Moneyline CASH* The Cleveland Indians continue to get very little respect from the books. The Indians didn't have far to travel after winning at Oakland on Thursday. On the other hand, Los Angeles played until 3 am Thursday morning, then played again until late Thursday afternoon in Boston. I think this is a bad spot for the Angels who are bound to be a little tired. Justin Masterson has been terrific this year. Masterson has an ERA of 2.25 this season. I consider the Indians and Angels lineups to be pretty even, and I think the Indians have a clear edge in this pitching matchup. The Indians are 8-0 in Masterson's last 8 starts. Take the Indians here.
|
05-06-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
0-6 |
Win
|
150 |
19 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* Jaime Garcia is a very solid left-handed pitcher. Garcia has a 0.64 ERA at home so far this year. The Brewers have been terrible against lefties this year. Milwaukee is scoring just 2.73 runs per game against lefties. Randy Wolf has pitched well of late, but I think he'll have trouble against this terrific Cardinals lineup. Lance Berkman and Matt Holiday are both absolutely crushing the ball, and it is only a matter of time until Pujols gets it going again. I like the Cardinals -1.5 here.
|
05-06-11 |
Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals +109 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Oakland Athletics lost a tough extra innings game to the Cleveland Indians on Thursday afternoon. Oakland has a very good starting pitching staff, but their defense isn't very good and the offense isn't very powerful at all. Kansas City hasn't lost a series at home all year, and I think the books are still undervaluing this Royals. Gio Gonzalez is a very good pitcher, but he hasn't fared well at all pitching in Kansas City. Gonzalez has an ERA of 7.62 in his three starts in Kansas City. O'Sullivan hasn't given up more than two earned runs in three straight starts. The Royals average 6.41 runs per game against a lefty. I'll take the Royals as underdogs here.
|
05-06-11 |
New York Yankees +103 v. Texas Rangers |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
103 |
19 h 18 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Value Bet* The New York Yankees are rarely underdogs, but they have lost three straight and the books have gotten a little lower on them. I know the Rangers are a very good home team, but the Rangers are injury depleted right now. Josh Hamilton is out and Nelson Cruz will miss this one as well. Matt Harrison has an ERA of 11.12 in his last three starts. Harrison gives up the home run far too often, and the Yankees have plenty of guys who can take him deep. Nova has pitched decent for the Yankees of late. The Yankees are 8-3 in Nova's last 11 starts. At plus money against a mediocre starting pitcher I'll take the Yankees ML.
|
05-06-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 |
|
6-2 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* James Shields has been pitching as well as anyone in baseball over the last few games. Britton is a tremendous young lefty for the Orioles. Both teams have proven to be nice 'under' teams thus far this year. The under is 38-15-1 in the Rays last 54. The under is 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts against the Orioles. The under is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings between these two. Mark Carlson is an under umpire behind the dish as well. Take the under here.
|
05-05-11 |
Texas Rangers -110 v. Seattle Mariners |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I continue to believe that the Seattle Mariners are much worse than their record shows. The Mariners are 14-17, but I think they could end up the season with the worst record in the American League. This Mariners lineup is not a good one at all. The Mariners are 0-7 in Vargas' last 7 home starts and 2-12 in his last 14 starts overall. The Rangers start Colby Lewis, who isn't a great pitcher, but he actually pitches better on the road. Getting almost even money on a team with a much better lineup seems like a good value. Take the Rangers ML.
|
05-05-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Brandon Beachy is a very good young pitcher for the Braves, and he has pitched well in three straight games. The Brewers offense has been scuffling a bit of late. Marcum is pitching for the Brewers, and I think he is one of the most underrates pitchers in baseball today. Marcum has allowed 0 earned runs in three of his last four starts. Marcum allowed just one run earlier this year against the Braves. I think this one has the makings of a 3-2 type game. Take the under.
|
05-05-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
104 |
18 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH Special* Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the majors right now. Halladay has amazing control of the strike zone. Halladay is 9-1 in his career against the Nationals. On the other side, John Lannan will be starting for the Nationals. How about this for an amazing statistic? The Nationals are 0-11 in Lannan's last 11 starts against the Phillies. The Phillies hit .271 as a team against lefties, and they score about five runs per game. Getting plus money on the runline seems like a terrific value in this mismatch special. Take the Phillies -1.5.
|
05-05-11 |
Florida Marlins -122 v. St. Louis Cardinals |
|
3-6 |
Loss |
-122 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Josh Johnson has been the best pitcher in the majors thus far this year. In his last four starts he has allowed one earned run! Jake Westbrook has been erratic this year, and this Marlins continues to hit the ball pretty well. I like the Cardinals team pretty well, but I think the pitching matchup goes so strongly to the Marlins here that this short price on the moneyline is well worth it. I expect Johnson to pitch another very good game. Take the Marlins moneyline here.
|
05-05-11 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
11-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Runline ROUT* The Los Angeles Angels and the Boston Red Sox played late into the night last night, now they must turnaround and play less than 12 hours later in this afternoon series finale. John Lackey has pitched well at home of late, and he has pitched extremely well in matchups against his former team (the Angels). Last time against the Angels Lackey pitched a shutout in Los Angeles. Joel Piniero is pitching for the Angels, and he has been hit hard by most of the Red Sox regulars. The Angels are just 3-7 in Piniero's last 10 road starts. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts against the Angels. I think Boston finishes off this series with a big win. Take Boston -1.5.
|
05-05-11 |
New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9 |
|
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* A.J. Burnett has an ERA of over 9 in his starts at Comerica. The Tigers offense got a much needed boost when Victor Martinez returned to the lineup on Wednesday night. The Yankees were shutout by Scherzer on Wednesday, but they should have much better luck against Rick Porcello. The Yankees have hit Porcello hard in the past. The over is 6-2-1 in Burnett's last 9 starts. The over is 6-1 in Porcello's last 7 home starts. The over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings. Tschida is behind the dish here, and he is a solid over umpire. I like the over in this Thursday afternoon game.
|
05-05-11 |
Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8.5 |
|
4-10 |
Loss |
-111 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Early Bird Special* Homer Bailey will make his first start of the season on Thursday afternoon. In his three rehab starts he was tremendous. Bailey had an ERA of 0.54 in his three starts in AAA. Brett Myers has historically pithched well on the road and he has pitched well against the Reds as well. In his last two starts against the Reds he has allowed a total of two runs. Tom Hallion is behind the dish here and I consider him a bit of an under umpire. The cool temperatures in Cincinnati should keep the ball from flying out of GABP too often. I like the under.
|
05-04-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Late Night Totals Winner* Josh Tomlin has been very good so far this year, and the Oakland offense is not very impressive. Trevor Cahill has been absolutely dominant at home over the last couple years. The under is 16-5-1 in his last 22 home starts. While the Indians do have the best record in baseball, I don't think this Cleveland offense is all that terrific either. Ron Kulpa is behind the dish here and he is a solid under umpire. I think both pitchers will pitch well here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2-1 type of game. Take the under.
|
05-04-11 |
Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
104 |
20 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* The Colorado Rockies are a very good offensive team and Carlos Gonzalez is getting it going now. The Diamondbacks are solid offensively as well. Chase Field is expected to be open tonight and the temperature will be around 94 degrees. The humidity level is expected to be extremely low, which should mean the ball will be jumping off the bats tonight. Enright is pitching for the DBacks and the over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 home starts. I expect a high scoring affair. Take the over.
|
05-04-11 |
Florida Marlins v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
8-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 20 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Cardinals are 50-17 in Chris Carpenter's last 67 starts at home. Javier Vazquez has just one quality start so far this year. Remember when everyone was saying the Cardinals couldn't hit? St. Louis now has the highest team batting average, .293, in all of baseball. They have been able to do that without Pujols contributing much at all. The Cardinals have a huge advantage here in the pitching matchup, and they also have the better lineup. No pitcher wants to see Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman in the middle of the opponent's order. Take the Cardinals -1.5.
|
05-04-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 27 m |
Show
|
*5 Star Top Play Total* Kyle Davies is one of my favorite pitchers to fade or play an 'over' with, and Jake Arrieta hasn't been good on the road either. Arrieta has some hip pain that could give him some trouble during this game. The weather conditions should help a lot in this one. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at about 20 mph during this game. Davies has given up five runs in three of his six starts, and he gave up eight earned runs in his last outing. The Orioles bats are slowly coming to life of late. The over is 4-1 in Arrieta's last 5 starts. The over is 4-1 in Davies' last 5 home starts. The over is 31-13 in the last 44 meetings in Kansas City between these two. I'm making this my first five star top play of the MLB season. Take the over in a big way.
|
05-04-11 |
New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 9 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* I don't normally like to bet the 'under' with the Yankees, but I think this is a good spot. Freddy Garcia has been surprisingly good this year, and the Tigers offense isn't that great. Max Scherzer is terrific at Comerica in his career. Scherzer has an ERA of 2.7 in Detroit. Garcia also has a solid 3.7 ERA in his starts at Detroit. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams at Detroit. I think the line gives us a solid value on the under.
|
05-04-11 |
Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Travis Wood has an ERA of 6.00 at home. Rodriguez will be making the first start of his career for Houston in this game. Both teams have been hitting the ball very well of late. The wind is expected to be pushing out at about 10 to 15 mph in this game. The over is 3-0-1 in the Reds last 4 home games. The over is 9-4 in the Astros last 13 road games. The pitching matchup points to an over and I think this number is a solid value on the over. Expect both starting pitchers to get knocked out fairly early in this one. Take the over.
|
05-03-11 |
Texas Rangers -127 v. Seattle Mariners |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-127 |
20 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Texas Rangers have been absolutely tremendous this year against left-handed pitchers. As a team they are hitting .292 against lefties, and they are averaging 6.51 runs per game. Erik Bedard is a lefty who has been struggling most of the year. The Rangers knocked him out of the game pretty early in their first meeting against him this year, and I expect that again. Ogando is a legitimate solid young pitcher with good stuff. The Mariners are hitting .211 against right-handed pitchers this year. Texas has a much better lineup than Seattle, and they also have the pitching advantage here. Take the Rangers.
|
05-03-11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I'm no fan of taking an 'over' at PetCo Park in San Diego, but this number is definitely set too low based on the trends and data. Mat Latos was terrific last year, but he has been bad this year. Latos has an ERA of 4.98 this year, and he has allowed at least three runs in every outing this year. Jeff Karstens is pitching for the Pirates, and the over is 5-1 in his last 6 starts. Karstens doesn't have overpowering stuff, and I think the Padres will be able to score some runs off him. With a number set this low, a 3-3 game will result in a win. I like the value on the over.
|
05-03-11 |
Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Terrific Total* I've written about it before, and I've not changed my mind about Chase Field when the roof is open. Chase Field with the roof open is a hitters paradise, especially when the weather is hot and dry like it is expected to be today. A temperature of around 90 with almost no humidity should mean the ball will be coming off the bat extremely quickly tonight. Joe Saunders has struggled in the past with the roof open, and De La Rosa gives up too many fly balls to be good in these conditions. Take the over in this one.
|
05-03-11 |
Florida Marlins v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8 |
|
5-7 |
Loss |
-102 |
18 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATIION* The Florida Marlins have Anibal Sanchez on the hill in this one. Sanchez has been brilliant of late, and historically he has been very good on the road. The under is 27-11-2 in Sanchez's last 40 starts on the road. Kyle McClellan has been solid this year for the Cardinals, and I think he'll fare well in this one. Jerry Layne is the home plate umpire, and the under is 17-8-1 in his last 26 games behind the plate. I think this total is set a little too high. I like the value on the under in this one.
|
05-03-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets -1.5 |
|
7-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The San Francisco Giants are pretty short-handed offensively right now. Without Sandoval in the middle of the lineup they lose quite a bit of their pop. The New York Mets are playing much better baseball right now, and they certainly have a better lineup than the Giants at this point. Beltran, Wright, Bay, and Reyes give them four very solid hitters. R.A. Dickey has historically been very good at home, and I don't see the Giants scoring many runs here. Ryan Vogelsong is pitching for the Giants, and I don't he has the stuff to shut down the Mets. Take the Mets -1.5.
|
05-03-11 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 7 |
|
3-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 7 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* John Hirschbeck is the umpire in this game, and he is one of the best 'under' umpires in the business. Hirschbeck has a wide strike zone, and that should be perfect for both Dan Haren and Jon Lester. Dan Haren has allowed a total of six earned runs in his seven starts this year. Jon Lester allowed five earned runs in his first start of the year, but he has allowed just six earned runs in his last five starts overall. I think both starting pitchers will pitch deep into the game here. Take the under.
|
05-02-11 |
Baltimore Orioles +101 v. Chicago White Sox |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Sides Special* The Baltimore Orioles have taken the first three games in this four-game series from the White Sox. Chicago is struggling mightily right now, and the Orioles are a much better team this year than they were in 2010. Jeremy Guthrie is on the mound for the Orioles here, and he is better on the road than he is at home. Guthrie has had four quality starts this year and just one poor outing. Buerhle is pitching for the Sox, and he has two quality starts and four bad ones. Markakis, Lee, Guerrero, and Wieters all hit .350 or higher against Buerhle in their career. The Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 against the White Sox when Buerhle is on the hill. I'll take the Orioles to finish off the sweep here.
|
05-01-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
7-0 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TAKEDOWN* The San Diego Padres may have the worst offense in all of baseball. They managed to score five runs last night, but I don't think they'll be able to repeat that against a solid sinker-ball pitcher in Jon Garland. On the other side, Dustin Mosely has been terrific for the Padres. The Dodgers are short-handed without Furcal and Blake right now. The under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings between these two. I expect both starters to pitch well in this one. Take under 7.5 here.
|
05-01-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-7 |
Loss |
-120 |
15 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one and he is probably the single biggest 'under' umpire in all of baseball. Eddings has a big strike zone, and historically he has been an under bettors dream. The under is 12-4-2 in Eddings last 18 games. The under is also 38-16-5 in his last 59 Sunday games. Gio Gonzalez is a very good lefty who can work the corners, and I think the Rangers will have a difficult time against him. Matt Harrison has been much improved this year, and this Oakland offense is very bad. Take the under.
|
05-01-11 |
Baltimore Orioles +110 v. Chicago White Sox |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
110 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Sunday Sweep* The Baltimore Orioles are an improving team. The offense has been holding them back most of the year, but they have lots of talent offensively. The offense has finally started to get it going the last few days, and I think they are a better team than the White Sox right now. Britton is a terrific young pitcher, and the White Sox are struggling in a big way at the plate. The White Sox are averaging just 3.2 runs per game against a left-hander. Chicago is 3-14 in their last 17 games. The Orioles are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Take Baltimore.
|
05-01-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Over Play of the Day* Chris Narveson hasn't looked good in his last couple outings, and the Houston Astros are scoring about 5 runs per game on lefties this year. Bud Norris is solid at home, but this Brewers lineup is very good now with Weeks, Braun, Fielder, McGhee, and Hart back and healthy. The wind is projected to be blowing out at about 15 mph. The home plate umpire is Adrian Johnson who tends to have a small strike zone. This one sets up nicely for an 'over' play. Take over 8.5 in this matchup.
|
05-01-11 |
Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians -136 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Surprise Streak* The Cleveland Indians weren't supposed to be good this year, but they have now won 12 straight games at home. Justin Masterson is pitching on Sunday, and Masterson has an ERA of 3.06 at home in his career. The Indians are 7-0 in his last 7 home starts. Phil Coke starts for the Tigers. Coke has been wild in his last couple starts, and the Indians have teed off on lefties so far this year. I think the Indians keep the streak going. I think this is a fair price for the Indians moneyline. Take Cleveland.
|
05-01-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees -1.5 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
145 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Runline ROUT* The Yankees are a much better hitting team than the Blue Jays. Toronto has thrown a couple very good young pitchers in the first two games of this series, which has held the Yankees offense down a bit. Litsch will be pitching in this one, and I think the Yankees can get to him. Ivan Nova isn't great for the Yankees, but he holds his own at home. Don't forget these Yankees rarely lose at home. The Yankees are 106-47 in their last 153 home games. The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 against the Blue Jays with Litsch pitching. Take the Yankees -1.5.
|
04-30-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
18 h 25 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Tasty Total* Chase Field is a hitter's paradise when the roof is open, and the roof should be open for this one. Last night I lost on the 'over' play, but there were still four home runs. In two games in this series there have been eight home runs. I expect several more in this game. Matt Garza hasn't pitched in Arizona before, and Ian Kennedy has a 5.24 ERA in April in his career. The line has been adjusted slightly lower than yesterday's total, which is plenty for me to jump on the over again here. The over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two in Arizona. Take the over.
|
04-30-11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
126 |
18 h 12 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Bounceback Big Bet* The Colorado Rockies were shutout by the Pirates on Friday night. I'm going to bet that won't happen again on Saturday night. The numbers are backing the Rockies in a strong way in this game. The Rockies are 23-8 in Hammel's last 31 home starts. The Pirates are 16-56 in their last 72 road games. Paul Maholm has been terrible at Coors Field, and against the Rockies in general in his career. Maholm has an ERA of 6.84 against Colorado overall, and in Coors Field his ERA is 7.53. Not surprisingly, the Pirates are 0-7 in Maholm's last 7 starts against Colorado. I think the Rockies bounce back here. Colorado -1.5 is the play.
|
04-30-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 6 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH Special* The Seattle Mariners have won four straight games on the road, and the books are getting a little higher on them. I think this is a good chance to fade Seattle. The Mariners offense is terrible. John Lackey has looked pretty good this year, and I think he matches up pretty well here. The Red Sox lineup is tremendous, and I think they will have no trouble putting up several runs against Doug Fister. The Mariners are 3-14 in Fister's last 17 road starts. Boston is 13-4 in Lackey's last 17 home starts. Take Boston -1.5.
|
04-30-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Houston Astros +114 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
114 |
18 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Dog of the Day* Wandy Rodriguez hasn't started the season out quite as well as some expected, but I think the books are too down on him right now. This is a pitcher who has dominated at home for several straight years, and I don't think that domination is over just yet. On the other side, Randy Wolf has pitched well of late, but he has been extremely inconsistent in the past couple years and I think he is due for a poor outing. Wandy getting this kind of money is worth a play. I'll take the Astros in this one.
|
04-30-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
11-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, and Colby Lewis is a much better pitcher on the road. The under is 21-6 in Lewis' last 27 road starts. Brett Anderson is one of my favorite pitchers in the American League. He has tremendous stuff and he is absolutely dominant at home. Anderson has a tremendous ERA of 0.64 in two starts at home so far this year. Paul Nauert is behind the dish here and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 5-1 in Lewis' last 6 road starts against Oakland. I expect a well pitched game on both sides. Take the under.
|
04-30-11 |
New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the National League right now, primarily because of his consistent dominance. The New York Mets are getting a little bit too much credit from the books right now because of their recent six game winning streak. Earlier this year Jon Niese and Roy Halladay squared off against each other. The Phillies won the game 11-0. I don't expect Philadelphia to win that easily in this one, but I do think the runline is a very good value here. Take the Phillies -1.5.
|
04-29-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -120 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 43 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers will be a little short-handed tonight, but I still think they have a much better lineup than the San Diego Padres. Casey Blake is expected to miss the game and Juan Uribe is questionable. Still, the Dodgers have Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, who are better than anyone in the Padres lineup. Ted Lilly is a pretty good left-hander, and his splits have shown he can pitch quite well in Dodger Stadium. Clayton Richard is a pretty good pitcher as well, but he has been better at home. I think this is a very good value on the Dodgers moneyline.
|
04-29-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-119 |
20 h 35 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a completely different park when the roof is open, and it is expected to be open tonight. The ball carries in a huge way, especially when it is hot with low humidity. Today's weather report shows a lot of heat and almost no humidity. Carlos Zambrano certainly allows plenty of home runs, and I think Arizona will get to him tonight. The Cubs should have no problem scoring quite a few on Armando Galarraga, who is a fly ball pitcher in what will be a hitter's paradise. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Arizona. Take the over.
|
04-29-11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
19 h 6 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Pittsburgh Pirates may have started the season with some decent wins on the road, but don't let that fool you. This is still the same Pirates team that is terrible on the road. Pittsburgh is 15-56 in their last 71 road games. They are 10-41 in their last 51 road games against a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 16-6 in their last 22 games overall. They are also 7-3 in Chacin's last 10 home starts. The Pirates are just 3-10 in their last 13 games at Coors Field. I like the Rockies to win this one easily.
|
04-29-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves OVER 7 |
|
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 59 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals Takedown* It would be easy to look at the pitching matchup in this one and think the 'under' should be an automatic play. A longer look at the statistics tells me that the 'over' is the better way to go. Chris Carpenter and Tim Hudson are both very good pitchers, but their opponent in this game have hit them very well in the past. The over is 7-0 in Carpenter's last 7 starts against the Braves. The over is 5-1-2 in Hudson's last 8 starts against the Cardinals. Both teams have seen their offense come to life over the last few days. I think the over is a solid play here.
|
04-29-11 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
|
8-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 50 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Selection* The Tampa Bay Rays took it to the Twins twice yesterday in Minnesota. Tampa Bay is playing some very good baseball right now. Los Angeles is a team that I believe is a little bit overrated right now. I don't see the Angels lineup as very good at all. David Price is a dominant left-handed starter, and the Angels are 3-12 in their last 15 road games against a lefty. Ervin Santana has a terrible 7.36 ERA in seven starts at Tampa Bay. The Angels are 0-5 in Santana's last 5 starts in Tampa Bay. The Rays are 20-9 in Price's last 29 home games. I like the value on the runline here.
|
04-28-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays -105 v. Minnesota Twins |
|
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Doubleheader Delight* The Tampa Bay Rays took it to the Twins in the first game of the Doubleheader on Thursday, and I expect them to win the second game as well. The Twins lineup is severely short-handed right now. They don't have Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Jim Thome, or Jason Repko. The Rays are hitting the ball well right now, and Jeff Niemann has pitched well against Minnesota in his career. In fact, Tampa Bay is 4-0 in Niemann's last 4 starts against the Twins. Minnesota will start Anthony Swarzak, and the Twins are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. I like the Rays to finish off the sweep on Thursday.
|
04-28-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Houston Astros |
|
11-7 |
Win
|
125 |
19 h 12 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Houston Astros aren't a very good team this year. Earlier this year some people were talking about how bad the Cardinals lineup was, but now with a healthy Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman in the middle of the order, they look much better. Nelson Figueroa had an 8.55 ERA this year, and I really don't think he will stay in the Astros rotation much longer. On the other hand, Kyle McClellan hasn't given up more than two runs in any start this year. I think the Cardinals have the edge in every category here. I like the Cardinals -1.5 here.
|
04-28-11 |
New York Mets v. Washington Nationals -110 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 15 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The New York Mets benefited from a Washington Nationals bullpen meltdown yesterday night. The Mets have now won six straight games overall. While the Mets are cetainly better now, I'm not convinced they are any better than a decent team. Livan Hernandez has been very good at home the last couple years, and Chris Capuano is not a very good pitcher at this point in his career. The Nationals hit Capuano well the first time they saw him earlier this year. Hernandez has four straight quality starts against the Mets. I think the Mets recent success has the line skewed in their favor. I think Washington will end their streak in this one. Take Washington.
|
04-28-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 |
|
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Seattle Mariners have scored 17 runs in the last two days. I have played against Seattle in both of those games, and they have definitely hurt me. I still am going to stick with the fact that this Seattle offense is absolutely terrible. Ichiro is very good, but after that no one on this team is scary. Miguel Olivo is hitting cleanup for them right now. Pineda is a great young pitcher for the Mariners, and the Tigers lineup is struggling quite a bit without Victor Martinez. I think the best way to play this one is the under. This is an instance where I believe recent trends (the Mariners hitting very well) give us a very generous line on the under. Take the under here.
|
04-27-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Blue Jays have been smashing the baseball in a big way in this series so far, and I expect them to keep it going on Wednesday. At the same time, Texas should be able to put up several runs with JoJo Reyes on the hill for the Blue Jays. Reyes is a not dominant pitcher, and I don't think he'll fare well in a hitter's park like Texas. Derek Holland is on the mound for Texas, and his career ERA at home is 5.68. Holland gives up too many fly balls, and I think the Blue Jays will take him deep a couple times. The over is 6-2 in Holland's last 8 home starts. The over is 4-1 in Toronto's last five games. Take the over.
|