*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies offense isn't very good, but they do have a very good young starter on the mound here in Aaron Nola. Nola is inducing a ton of swings and misses, and his stuff is elite. 

The Washington Nationals offense is great against lefties, but they are in the bottom half of the league in offensive production against right handed starters. 

Joe Ross has very good stuff as well, and this Phillies lineup has a tough time stringing together enough hits to score often on a guy with swing and miss stuff like Ross.

The Phillies bullpen isn't good, but it isn't as bad as expected. The Nationals bullpen is elite. 

The under is 3-0-1 in Ross' last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In Jeff Locke and Justin Nicolino, we have two very bad left handed starters in this one. 

Locke has been alright at home in his career, but away from home he is pure fade material. Locke had a 5.63 road ERA last year and a 6.15 ERA so far this year. In this one though, he is opposed by a guy who is likely a little worse than he is. Nicolino is a pitch to contact guy who gives up a lot of hard hit balls.

Miami is 8th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Pirates are second in the majors in that same category. 

The Pirates bullpen has been a major weakness this year. The Marlins bullpen has been bad in the past couple weeks also.

The over is 19-7-4 in Locke's last 30 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Nicolino's last 5 home starts. The over is 7-2 in the Pirates last 9 vs. a lefty. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Colorado Rockies have been a pretty good team at Coors Field in recent years even when they don't have a good team overall. Cincinnati is just an awful team this year. Cincinnati has the worst bullpen in baseball by a huge margin, while Colorado's bullpen is much improved this year.

Chad Bettis has some quality stuff and he's a guy I'll look to back when I get good opportunities this year. Dan Straily is due for some regression and he doesn't pitch deep enough in the games. His short outings mean a lot of the Reds bullpen, which is great news for the Rockies.

Colorado's offense should have all kinds of scoring opportunities here. 

The Rockies are 7-0 in Bettis' last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Reds are 4-19 on the road this year. This is a very fair price. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Minnesota Twins aren't a good team, but they aren't as bad as their record would indicate. Minnesota has won four straight games, and they come into this one with some nice momentum. 

Trevor Plouffe is expected back in the lineup Monday, and that's big for the Twins offense. Ervin Santana is still a decent big league pitcher, and pitching in pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum is great for Santana. He is a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls, and that's a good thing at this park. Santana's career ERA pitching in Oakland is an amazing 1.94 over 84 innings.

Kendall Graveman continues to find ways to lose. The A's are 5-18 in his last 23 starts. Graveman has allowed more than one hit per inning pitched in each of his last five starts. He isn't throwing it well now, and the Twins offense is starting to heat up.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeff Samardzija is dialed in right now, and it's hard to imagine the Atlanta Braves lineup doing anything to change that. This Braves offense is one of the worst offenses in baseball. They have been particularly bad at home. 

The under is 6-0 in Samardzija's last 6 road starts. He's been throwing his fastball really well lately. His pitch location has been tremendous. The Giants bullpen has also been improved in recent weeks. 

Mike Foltynewicz is improving for the Braves. He has quality stuff, and he is slowly improving his control. The Giants offense did break out at Coors Field this weekend, but Turner Field is a pitcher's park.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have played two games that went well over the total, but I think this one stays under. The roof will be closed at Chase Field for this one, and that's a big deal. The ball flies much better with the roof open. 

Drew Pomeranz has really come into his own this year. Pomeranz has improved his control and has added in an extra pitch. This guy was always highly touted, and this is the year he became the real deal. 

Archie Bradley has an ERA of just under 2 at Triple A this year, and he's getting a chance to prove he should be in the rotation. What better team to do it against than the San Diego Padres? They arguably have the weakest lineup in baseball. 

Bill Miller is behind the plate here, and that's the single biggest reason for this play. Miller is a terrific under umpire. He'll give both guys the corners a lot here. The under is 37-15-1 in Miller's last 53 Sunday games. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The San Francisco Giants have been rolling of late, and their bats finally woke up in a big way on Saturday. 

Johnny Cueto has been amazing for San Francisco this year, and his numbers at Coors Field in his career are great. Cueto has a 2.61 ERA in 5 starts at Coors Field. Additionally, Cueto has a stellar 2.56 ERA in day games in his career. 

Chris Rusin isn't a terrible pitcher, but this Giants lineup has good numbers against him. San Francisco's expected lineup on Sunday has a .361 average against him. 

The Giants have a big pitching advantage, and when playing at Coors Field I trust the Giants offense more than I trust the Rockies offense. The Giants also have a small bullpen advantage.

Take San Francisco -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Texas Rangers are 9th in the majors in the same category. 

Francisco Liriano's numbers are much worse this year. His hard contact percentage has gone way up, and his velocity is down a bit. Liriano has a lot of control problems, and he has gotten himself in some big trouble when pitching on the road this year.

Martin Perez isn't a bad pitcher, but this Pittsburgh offense is excellent. Perez has benefited from some good fortune so far this year, and regression should hit soon for him. 

These two bullpens are both in the bottom five in the majors. Both have thrown a lot of innings of late also. I wouldn't trust Perez or Liriano to go deep in the game here, and I don't think the bullpens will be good in relief. 

The over is 7-1 in the Pirates last 8 vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 vs. a lefty. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Admittedly, I've been wrong about this series so far. The Cardinals have beaten me the last two nights when I've taken Washington. I still believe Washington is the right side on Sunday. 

Michael Wacha looks like he has something wrong with him. Some injury specialists have said that Wacha's motion makes him a candidate for injury issues, and he has been terrible of late. Until he can prove to me that he is right, I'll be looking for spots to fade him.

Stephen Strasburg's breakout year so far has been tremendous. He is getting a ton of swinging strikes, and his command of all pitches is much better. 

The moneyline is too expensive for me to lay it, and I think this run line price is a good value. Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox are looking to avoid the sweep in Toronto in this one. David Price toes the rubber for them. Price has a high ERA on the year, but his advanced metrics suggest he is pitching much better than most believe. Price has a FIP of only 2.81 on the year, and his strikeout rate is nearly 11 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. 

Price has dominated Toronto in the past. He has a sparkling 17-2 record and a 2.42 ERA in his career against Toronto. Price has pitched better of late, and I suspect he still wants to get back at Toronto for how things went down with him in the playoffs last year.

R.A. Dickey had a 7.45 ERA in two starts against Boston this year. Boston has a nice mix of great hitters and fast runners who can burn up the base paths when he is out there on the mound throwing that knuckler.

The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. Toronto is 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Jays are 0-6 in Dickey's last 6 home starts. They are 0-6 in his last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Toronto is 0-5 in Dickey's last 5 starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Price's last 4 starts against Dickey. A 30-0 angle. Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals send Gio Gonzalez to the mound on Saturday night against Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals. 

Gonzalez is coming off a poor outing in his last start. He should benefit from getting the Cardinals while they are short-handed here. The Cardinals are the best offense in the NL against righties, but St. Louis is a middle of the pack offense against lefties. 

Adam Wainwright has been somewhat better in recent starts, but he isn't the same guy he used to be, and the Cardinals bullpen isn't close to as good as the Nationals bullpen.

The Nationals outhit the Cardinals 8 to 4 last night, but they were undone by Max Scherzer's one bad inning. I think Washington gets back on track with a win here. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The New York Mets send Noah Syndergaard to the mound in this one, and he has been more dominant than any other pitcher in baseball outside of Clayton Kershaw. Syndergaard has held the Dodgers to a .178 batting average in two starts, and the Dodgers lineup hasn't been swinging very well of late either.

The Mets have a huge bullpen edge in this one. Kenta Maeda is a guy that has come back down to earth a bit lately. He is a solid pitcher, but he doesn't have the quality of stuff that Syndergaard has. At this price, I'm laying it with Syndergaard and the Mets at home.

The Dodgers are 2-12 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or higher. Take New York. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* Noah Syndergaard has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year other than Clayton Kershaw. Syndergaard has absolutely devastating stuff, and his command has gotten much better in the past year. This guy has a tremendous upside.

Syndergaard faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that is 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching in the past month. Syndergaard is one of the best, if not the best, right-handed pitcher in baseball right now. I expect him to be great again. The Dodgers lineup has a .178 batting average against Syndergaard. 

Kenta Maeda is a pretty good pitcher as well. He isn't even close to Syndergaard, but this Mets offense is 23rd in wOBA against right handed pitchers in the past month, so I expect him to fare pretty well here as well.

Adam Hamari calls a bunch of strikes behind home plate, and he is a big positive for the under in this one. 

The under is 23-8 in the Dodgers last 31 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-3 in the Mets last 10 vs. a right handed starter. Take the under big. TOP Total of the Week

*3 Star MLB Fade for Cash* The Atlanta Braves are 3-20 at home this year, and we get to fade them at this price? I have to grab it. The Marlins are 15-10 on the road. Ironically, Atlanta has been beating Miami this year. Maybe that is why the line has moved in Atlanta's favor here. Another reason for the line move could be Yelich and Stanton out of the lineup.

Still, even without those guys, the Marlins lineup is better than the Braves lineup. Additionally, Wei Yin Chen has amazing career numbers against Atlanta, and the Braves are terrible against left handed pitching. 

Too cheap on the road team here. Take Miami. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Kansas City Royals lineup is a mess right now. Without Gordon, Moustakas, and Morales this is a lineup that should have a lot of trouble scoring against good pitchers. 

Kansas City has already struggled against lefties this year even before these injury problems. The Royals are 25th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Carlos Rodon has been better on the road than at home in his young career. Rodon has improved his control this year, and I expect him to continue to improve with time. This guy was the third overall draft pick a couple years ago, and he has a high upside.

Yordano Ventura is walking about 6 batters per every 9 innings, and his command has been awful all year. 

Getting the healthy White Sox as an underdog against Ventura is a good value. Take Chicago. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays put up 7 runs last night. This Toronto offense has underachieved all year, but I think they may be starting to break out. Toronto hits well at home, and they are up against Rick Porcello in this one.

Porcello has a 7.15 ERA when pitching in Toronto. In his last 14 innings pitched in Toronto, he has allowed 17 runs. Toronto should get to him in this one as well.

Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, but this Boston offense is excellent. The Red Sox are at their best against right handed pitching. I expect them to get scoring chances against him and the Toronto bullpen which has been subpar of late.

A total of only 8.5 with these two teams is too low. Mike DiMuro is behind the plate also, and he is a very good over umpire.

The over is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 home games. The over is 3-0-2 in the Red Sox last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0 in DiMuro's last 5 behind home plate. A 12-0 angle. Take the over.  

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Colorado Rockies hit the ball really well last night in Boston against Clay Buchholz and I think they can come home and score a lot on Matt Cain as well. Cain is one of the more extreme fly ball pitchers in the majors, and that's a big negative at Coors Field. Cain has pitched somewhat better of late, but I expect that to change tonight in Colorado.Cain has allowed 14 runs in 8 and 2/3 innings so far this year against Colorado. 

Tyler Chatwood has a career home ERA of 4.83. Chatwood has been pretty good on the road in his career, but he can't seem to figure out Coors Field just yet. The Giants have been on fire of late, but it has been almost completely their pitching staff that has them winning. I expect that to change in this series. This San Francisco offense is better than they have shown so far this year.

The over is 7-1-1 in Cain's last 9 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Cain's last 5 starts vs. the Rockies. Take the over. 

*4 Star Friday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks meet at Chase Field on Friday night. San Diego is dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are much better against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are the second ranked team in baseball in wOBA against lefties. Both teams will be up against a lefty in this one. 

Christian Friedrich has always been a guy that walks a bunch of guys, and that's trouble against this Diamondbacks lineup. The Padres bullpen isn't very good this year either, and I expect Arizona to put up plenty of runs here.

Robbie Ray has an ERA over 6 in his career with the roof open at Chase Field, and the roof is slated to be open on Friday night. The ball flies very well in Arizona with the roof open.

The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. A 15-0 trend. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jon Niese has been bad all year long, and now he goes into one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball and has to face a Texas lineup that just broke out against the Angels. He'll also have to face 9 position players here instead of 8 with 1 pitcher. Niese is in a tough spot here.

Cole Hamels has a great ERA, but he has stranded 87% of his batters so far this year, and that can't continue for the season as a whole. He is a solid pitcher who isn't quite as dominant as he was a couple years ago. 

The Pirates and Rangers bullpens are both ranked in the bottom 5 of my bullpen rankings. The more these bullpens are in the game, the better it is for the over. Some thunderstorms are supposed to be in the area, which could make the starters leave earlier than normal.

Both teams are good against left handed pitching, and I think this gets past the posted total. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Washington Nationals start Max Scherzer in this one, and he has been much better in his last few starts. After struggling some to start the year, Scherzer seems to have settled down and his command has been much better in recent games.

Scherzer will be up against a Cardinals lineup that is short-handed. Matt Carpenter is out for this game and Matt Adams is doubtful to play here. You could argue those guys are their two most important hitters right now. 

Jaime Garcia has always been much better at home than on the road. The Nationals as a team are tremendous against left handed pitching. Washington averages 5.42 runs per game against left handed pitching, and they have a .346 OBP against lefties.

The Nationals bullpen is one of the three best in the majors (Yankees and Mets), and the Cardinals bullpen isn't much better than mediocre. Too much value on the run line for me to pass this one up. Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* Jonathan Gray starts for the Rockies, and I'm very high on his upside. Gray is coming off an ugly start at St. Louis, and I think that's why we are getting such a big number here. 

Gray has an ERA of 6.75, but a FIP of 2.57 and an XFIP of 2.64. Gray has gotten some downright awful luck so far this year, and that should even out over time. Only 50.9% of runners have been left on base by Gray. Opponents have run up a batting average on balls in play of a ridiculous .376. 

No doubt the Red Sox lineup is very good, but Gray has the quality of pitches to slow them down if he is on his game.

Clay Buchholz has been terrible this year, and he simply doesn't deserve to be -165 against this Rockies team. Buchholz has an ERA of 5.92 and all of his advanced metrics suggest he deserves an ERA of worse than 5, so it has primarily been bad pitching for him. His walk rate has more than doubled from last year.

The Red Sox are 3-10 in Buchholz's last 13 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take Colorado. 

*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been on fire of late, and I don't expect a visit from Justin Nicolino to cool them off. 

Nicolino has some awful numbers so far this year. He isn't striking anyone out. He has a grand total of 6 strikeouts in 29 and 1/3 innings pitched this year. He has 11 walks. That's just terrible, and this Tampa Bay Rays team is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. I expect them to get a lot of good rips against Nicolino. Consider this as well: almost 37% of balls hit by opposing batters off Nicolino have been hard hit balls. That is much higher than the league average of 30%. 

Matt Andriese isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he definitely isn't as good as his numbers look so far this year. Andriese sports a 2.11 ERA but a 4.77 SIERA and a 4.79 XFIP. Opponents batting average on batted balls in play is just .167. That number will definitely rise in time. Miami's offense ranks in the top ten against righties this year.

Adrian Johnson is behind the plate and I have him rated as a decent over umpire. He calls fewer strikes than the average umpire, and he is likely to make life a little more difficult for these pitchers. 

The over is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Rays last 6 games vs a left handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Play of Day* The Los Angeles Angels have made a habit out of roughing up Colby Lewis. Los Angeles hitters have a .345 average overall against Lewis. The Angels offense has heated up a lot over the past couple weeks.

Lewis is much worse at home. His home numbers over the past few years are just awful. In his last 40 starts at home, Lewis has a 5.10 ERA. In 23 starts against the Angels, he has an ERA of 6.06. 

Hector Santiago has been better this year, and while he is due for some regression, I like that he has pitched well in Texas. Santiago has an impressive 2.63 ERA in 48 innings pitched in Texas. 

The Rangers offense has been very shaky of late, and the Rangers bullpen is much worse than the Angels pen. 

The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. They are 7-0 in Santiago's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The Rangers are 1-5 in Lewis' last 6 home starts vs. the Angels. Take Los Angeles. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Philadelphia Phillies start Aaron Nola in this one, and Nola has a very bright future ahead of him as long as he can stay healthy. His stuff is fantastic, and it shows in all of his advanced statistics.

Nola has what some now believe is the best right handed curveball in baseball, and he has three excellent pitches. Nola is striking out almost 10 per every nine innings. He is walking only 1.65 per nine. His hard contact rate is just 22%, which is among the lowest in the majors. His FIP and XFIP are both lower than his ERA, so his good start has nothing to do with good luck. Nola has a fantastic 1.32 ERA in 34 innings pitched on the road this year.

The Tigers start Anibal Sanchez, and he has been a mess of late. Sanchez has allowed 4 runs or more in each of his last four starts. His ERA at home this year is 7.23.

Though the Tigers certainly have the much better lineup, the pitching matchup is so one-sided here I have to take this plus money price. Take Philadelphia.  

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals have torched Jason Hammel in the past, and the Chicago Cubs have torched Michael Wacha in the past.

These two offenses both rank in the top four in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. I expected both teams to work the count and get in some favorable situations. 

Wacha has been awful in his last two starts, and he is having some mechanical issues.

Hammel has a 5.58 ERA when pitching in St. Louis.

The over is 14-3 in Wacha's last 17 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the Cubs. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs. The over is 6-1 in Hammel's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 31-4 trend. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals start Stephen Strasburg here, and he has been great this year. He's always had tremendous stuff, and this year he has had better command of a wide array of pitches. Strasburg is a top end starter. He may be slightly less consistent than some guys, but the Mets offense hasn't been hitting very well of late.

Matt Harvey has been bad this year, but his FIP of 3.63 suggests he has gotten some rotten luck this year. Harvey's velocity is down some, but it isn't to the level where he should just be getting shelled on a nightly basis. He has good numbers against Washington long term.

This number comes from an overadjustment of the total thanks to Harvey's recent struggles.

Vic Carapazza is the umpire here, and that's a very good thing for under bettors. In the past five years, he has called the 7th highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank fourth in the majors in weighted on base average this year against left handed pitching. Francisco Liriano has been very erratic this year, and he can't be trusted to pitch well here.

Shelby Miller is a guy that I believe can be trusted to pitch poorly at this point. Miller leads the majors with 25 walks so far this year. He has only 27 strikeouts. That's an awful strikeout/walk ratio right there. Miller is going to give the Pirates opportunities to score here, and the Pirates offense is underrated by many. Obviously McCutchen is good, but Marte is very good and the rest of the lineup is solid.

Both bullpens are very shaky, which could lead to several late runs scoring. The weather has warmed up considerably in Pittsburgh, which means the ball will be carrying a little more here.

The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 4 or more runs last game. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland A's offense has some severe problems right now. They were already without some guys they expected to get some contributions from like Canha and Phegley, but when Josh Reddick went down with an injury that hurt this offense badly. The A's have one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been a little inconsistent, but he seems to have taken a definite step forward this year. Walker has tremendous stuff and it is just a matter of time until he becomes a reliable starter for this team. 

Rich Hill is a guy I've been cautious to trust, but the advanced metrics all suggest Hill's very good start this season isn't a fluke. He has changed up his arsenal a bit, and it has worked brilliantly. Hill has an ERA of 2.54 and a FIP of 2.90. 

The under is 6-1-1 in Walker's last 8 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Seattle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* We have two starters who are fully capable of imploding at any point. Ubaldo Jimenez has walked 4 batters or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Walking that many guys is a recipe for disaster in the big leagues. Jimenez comes into this game pitching in really bad form, and the Angels bats have heated up in the past couple weeks. 

Jered Weaver is throwing 80 mph fastballs and trying to consistently get major leaguers out. Weaver does a better job of it than most guys could with that kind of velocity, but it's only a matter of time until they start squaring it up. 

Baltimore's offense is one of the best in baseball, and the Angels offense is hot right now. This is one of those games where we could easily see big innings from both teams at some point throughout the game. These pitchers have plenty of blow up potential.

This park is a pitcher's park, but it is certainly better for hitters during the day and the wind will be blowing out at 10 mph in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels are 2-12 in Matt Shoemaker's last 14 home starts. While the Angels bats have been better of late, there is no doubt that Baltimore has the much better lineup here. 

Kevin Gausman is a guy who I think has a good future ahead of him. He has a nice array of pitches and decent command for a youngster. 

Shoemaker gives up a lot of fly balls, and he is prone to a home run problem. Baltimore is loaded with power hitters and that makes them a bad matchup for him.

The Angels bullpen is a major weakness, while Baltimore has a very good bullpen. This price is too cheap to pass up. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Houston Astros lineup is better suited for hitting lefties. Cesar Ramos is a terrible starting pitcher, and he won't go deep into the game here. That's a good thing as well since the Texas bullpen is now the second worst bullpen in the majors. Houston should be able to put up quite a few runs in this game. 

Texas' lineup ranks 25th in weighted on base average when playing on the road. They are banged up right now, and they haven't been producing in the last few games. 

Houston's Mike Fiers has been good at home the last couple years and he is backed by a very good bullpen. I like the value on the runline. Take Houston -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have been awful this year against left handed pitching. Detroit has a .270 team average against right handed pitchers. They have only a .224 average against lefties. 

Drew Smyly is one of the more underrated left handed pitchers in baseball. Smyly has a very high strike out and swinging strikes rate. He has improved his control as well.

Smyly was a Tiger a couple years ago, and he should have some extra incentive to try to grab a win against them here.

Fulmer is a decent prospect for Detroit, but he appears to have been rushed to the bigs. The Tampa Bay offense is on fire of late, and I expect him to have trouble slowing them down in this one.

Tampa Bay is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games overall. The Tigers are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a lefty. A 31-0 angle. Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is just epic bad this year. There is no other way to put it. Cincinnati simply can't find anyone to come in and get outs. The rotation is short-handed now, and John Lamb is reportedly starting this game despite a minor thumb injury on his pitching hand. That's not good at all to try to pitch through, and Seattle is a lineup that hits left-handed pitchers very well. 

Lamb doesn't pitch deep into the game very often, and that means several innings of the awful Reds bullpen. That's definitely a big plus for the over.

Felix Hernandez has been very hittable on the road this year, and his velocity is down a bit right now. The Reds have some power hitters and Hernandez is giving up the long ball this year. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Mariners last 5 interleague road games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games vs a left handed starter. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a road team with a 60% or higher road win percentage. The over is 5-0 in Lamb's last 5 on four days of rest. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka in this one. While Tanaka has had a couple bad starts in a row, he should be a good for a bounce back in this pitcher's park against an Oakland lineup that is short-handed.

Josh Reddick is out with an injury and that is a huge loss for the Oakland offense. Reddick was playing the best baseball of his career this year. Oakland doesn't have offensive depth, and the A's are going to struggle to score runs this year.

Tanaka's main problem of late has been the long ball, but it is tough to hit too many of those in this park.

The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball and that's a big boost for the late innings too. Take New York. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees should get a good start from Masahiro Tanaka, who slumped against two solid offenses in his last two home starts. 

He'll go against a much worse offense here, and it will be in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. Oakland is in a lot more trouble offensively now without Josh Reddick (out with an injury). Oakland already has multiple injuries on offense, and this team wasn't scoring many runs even with Reddick.

Sean Manaea has good stuff and should be a good pitcher on his home field. Manaea is coming off his best big league start in his last outing. He faces a Yankees offense that has been very bad this year against lefties.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Miami Marlins have crushed Tanner Roark in the past couple years. Roark had a 5.79 ERA against Miami last year, and so far this year in 3 starts he has a miserable 8.40 ERA against Miami. 

I would rate Justin Nicolino as one of the worst left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. He has proven nothing in the majors, and he really hasn't even pitched all that well in the minors either. Washington is destroying left handed pitching so far this year. The Nationals are averaging a whopping 5.93 runs per game against left handed pitchers this year.

Both teams should get plenty of scoring opportunities. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense wasn't going to struggle for too long. They underachieved early in the year, but this is a really good lineup and I expect them to score a lot this year. Detroit has gotten hot of late and is now 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

Tampa Bay just torched the Toronto pitching staff in their series at Toronto, and the Rays come in with lots of momentum. The Rays are first in the majors in home runs, and Anibal Sanchez has been having trouble keeping the ball in the park.

Sanchez has consistently been giving up 4 runs or so in 6 innings, and that's obviously not good enough. His performances have been very consistently bad this year. 

Matt Andriese has pitched well in his first two starts, but those were against the Angels and Oakland. This is a much tougher test for him.

The over is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in Sanchez's last 8 starts after the team scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts during game one of a series. The over is 4-0-2 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. A 36-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Milwaukee Brewers ride in on a high after beating the Chicago Cubs in two of their last three games. Milwaukee isn't a good team though, and this is a really bad matchup for them. 

New York starts Stephen Matz here. Matz is coming off a minor injury and will likely throw less innings here, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing as this Mets bullpen is tremendous and they are very deep. 

Wily Peralta has been absolutely awful this year. Peralta has been quoted as saying he has no confidence right now, and it is showing on the mound.

Peralta has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of his 8 starts this year. He also has given up at least a hit per inning on average in every single start this year. Peralta is also walking 4 batters per 9 innings, which is the highest ever in his career. Those are scary numbers, and I'll look to fade him. 

This Mets offense was shut down by Strasburg yesterday, but I expect them to hit Peralta today. In addition, the Brewers bullpen is second to last in my bullpen rankings (only the Reds bullpen is worse).

With the moneyline being too expensive, I'm taking the nice value price on the runline. Take New York -1.5 big. MLB TOP Play of the Week 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants pitching staff has been great lately. Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants in this one, and he has been throwing the ball extremely well. Samardzija was sharp in his last outing at Chase Field in Arizona, and this time around he'll be in San Diego at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Samardzija is getting ahead of batters at a great rate lately, and his fastball has been working very well.

James Shields has a great 2.53 ERA in his career against San Francisco. Shields is a guy who uses the park to his advantage very well, and he can usually pitch pretty deep into a game. 

The Padres offense is one of the worst in baseball, and the Giants offense has been inconsistent at best of late. A total of 7 isn't that low in a game played at PetCo Park. 

The under is 9-0 in the Giants last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in Samardzija's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Shields' last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 64-0 angle. Take the under.

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jon Gray is still an underrated pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. It may be tough for him to put up good numbers at Coors Field, but he has already been doing it on the road. Gray has a career 2.18 ERA on the road, and a 1.38 ERA in two road starts this year. He has dominating stuff, and he is getting better with pitch sequencing as time goes by. 

Michael Wacha has been a great pitcher at home throughout his career with the Cardinals. The Rockies lineup is still solid, but it is far less imposing than it was a couple years ago. Busch Stadium is a good park for pitchers, and Wacha does a great job utilizing that to his benefit.

The Rockies bullpen is improved and the Cardinals bullpen is very good. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds square off one more time in this intrastate battle. Cleveland has won the first three games this week, and they look to pull off a sweep here. 

Josh Tomlin has a solid ERA so far this year, but his advanced statistics suggest he has been a bit lucky. Opponents batting average on balls in play is only .250. While I don't think Tomlin is a bad pitcher, I do believe he is a little worse than he has shown so far this year. 

Tim Adleman is a guy who was thrown into the starting rotation faster than anyone expected in Cincinnati, because everyone has been getting injured for the Reds. Adleman hasn't pitched badly in his first three starts, but he has only thrown 16 innings in 3 starts. Adleman only made 3 starts in Triple A before getting jumped up to the bigs. He is a candidate for regression as he has left 84.2% of runners on base this year. 

The Reds bullpen is historically bad, and with Adleman not pitching deep into the game, that plays a big role in why I like this selection. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Indians last 5 following a win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 7-0 in Tomlin's last 7 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 8-0 in Tomlin's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 41-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees offense has finally started showing signs of life after underachieving for a very long time this year. Jacoby Ellsbury is back in the lineup, and he is key to their success. Arizona's offense is strong at home, and the Diamondbacks still have one of the best hitters in the majors in Paul Goldschmitt.

Chase Field's roof is expected to be open for this one. The roof open makes almost a full run of difference in the expected run scoring according to my database. The ball flies much better with the roof open. 

Shelby Miller gets the ball for the Diamondbacks and he has more walks than strikeouts this year. Miller has zero confidence now, and the Yankees are completely capable of putting up a big inning or two against him.

Nate Eovaldi is very inconsistent and he has trouble with the home run ball, which is bad with the roof open here in Phoenix.

The over is 5-0 in Eovaldi's last 5 interleague starts. The over is 3-1-1 in Miller's last 5 home starts. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is the worst bullpen in the major leagues in dozens of years. There is no one down there to count on, and as a unit they have a ridiculously bad 6.46 ERA. That's more than a full run worse than the second worst bullpen in baseball.

Brandon Finnegan typically doesn't pitch deep into the game because he struggles with control issues. The Indians are likely to get several innings of chances to score on the Reds bullpen. Cleveland just scored 15 and 13 runs on the Reds the last two days. They probably won't do that again, but I think they can score several here. 

Mike Clevinger makes his first big league start for the Indians. Clevinger isn't a highly prized prospect, and his stuff is only mediocre. The Reds should get chances to score on him throughout this one.

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire with a small strike zone.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Indians last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in Finnegan's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I'm not normally a fan of laying this much juice on the runline, but everything adds up to this being a strong play. 

Clayton Kershaw struggled a bit early in his career against the Angels, but last year he had two starts against them and had an ERA of 0.60. This Angels lineup isn't very good anymore. Mike Trout doesn't have enough help.

The Dodgers lineup has underachieved so far this year. Jered Weaver could be just the type of guy they need to face to get things going. Weaver has been awful this year. He was bad last year, and his velocity is down even more this year and his ERA is even higher. Weaver will be a guy I look to fade this year, especially on the road. While he has good numbers against the Dodgers, none of those starts came in the past three years. He is a much different pitcher now than he was 4 years ago. 

Kershaw's in great form now, and I expect the Dodgers to win comfortably. Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* This one got rained out on Monday. I still like it on Tuesday.

The Boston Red Sox have been the best hitting team in the majors so far this year, and they are much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

Boston is averaging a whopping 6.03 runs per game on the year. The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in their last seven games. In five of those seven games, they have scored at least 10 runs. That's incredible success on offense. There's no way they can keep that up long-term, but baseball is a game of streaks and until this team cools off I'd rather back them than play against them.

Another big reason for this play is the form of Yordano Ventura. Ventura has an ERA of 4.62 on the year, but advanced statistics suggest he has been fortunate and his ERA should be north of 5.

The Kansas City offense has really struggled this year. Only Eric Hosmer has been reliable of late on offense. Rick Porcello's advanced numbers are the best of his career so far, and it's certainly possible he is improving since he is still only 27 years old.

The Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 following a win. They are 0-5 in their last 5 Monday games. Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 21-0 angle. Take Boston.  

*4 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Chicago Cubs go up against Chase Anderson and the Milwaukee Brewers here. Anderson has some potential, but he has no confidence right now and he is in terrible form. 

Anderson has allowed 6 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. This Cubs lineup will be the best lineup he has faced all year. Anderson is struggling with his command, and this Cubs lineup is great at working the count and getting bases on balls.

Kyle Hendricks is an underrated starter. Hendricks is very solid to start with, and he has a great track record against the Brewers. In fact, he has a tremendous 1.49 ERA in seven career starts against them. Even more impressive is his 0.49 ERA in three starts at Miller Park.

The Milwaukee bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, while the Cubs bullpen is excellent. Likewise, the Cubs have a great defense while the Brewers defense isn't good at all.

The Cubs aren't a fluke, and this is a mismatch all the way around. Take Chicago -1.5.

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have scored 6 and 10 runs in their last two games. It was only a matter of time until the Tigers offense got going, and I think they should be able to keep it going against Phil Hughes tonight.

Detroit's lineup collectively has a .315 average against Hughes, and Hughes has struggled badly so far this year. I don't expect him to have much success slowing down this Tigers offense tonight.

On the other side, Mike Pelfrey is terrible, and this Twins lineup is showing signs of heating up as well. Minnesota has scored at least 5 runs in each of their last four games. Pelfrey is the type of guy who always puts people on base, so the Twins will have their chances again here.

The over is 6-0-2 in the Twins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. Detroit. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Max Scherzer is a tremendous pitcher, but he has been inconsistent this year. It's going to be tough to be at his best following a 20 strikeout game where he threw more pitchers than he is accustomed to throwing. This is a tough spot for him against a good Mets team and a tremendous young ace in Noah Syndergaard.

While most people realize Syndergaard is very good, I still believe he is being underrated by many people including the oddsmakers. Syndergaard has amazing command of his pitches for being this young, and he is a gamer out on the mound. I love the way he competes. 

Syndergaard has been at his best in the past when he faces good opponents. He faces the Mets primary competition in the NL East tonight. I think Syndergaard puts up a dominating performance as the Mets win. Take New York. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels have been hitting the ball better in this series so far, but I don't expect it to continue here. This Angels lineup is extremely weak. Mike Trout is a star and Calhoun and Pujols are solid, but outside of that this Angels order is very weak. The depth of this lineup is among the worst in baseball.

Felix Hernandez isn't quite what he was in the past, but he still has good stuff, and he is pitching at home where he is tremendous. Hernandez has a sparkling 1.43 ERA in his last 12 starts vs. the Angels as well, so he has dominated this team.

Hector Santiago has improved a lot in the past couple years, and I like his chances of slowing down Seattle here.

Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the business. He will give both pitchers the corners and we should see plenty of strikeouts. The under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These two starters are the primary reason for the over play here. Cesar Vargas isn't a highly touted guy, and he's been really bad in his first couple starts on the road. Milwaukee's offense has been crushing the baseball in the last few games. 

Zach Davies has been consistently bad this year. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Davies is walking almost exactly as many guys as he is striking out right now, and that's a terrible sign. The Padres offense isn't good, but they have been better in recent days and I think they score several here.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom 6 or 8 in the league, so late runs shouldn't come as a surprise in this one either. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka in this one. Tanaka is coming off a rare bad outing last game. Tanaka had allowed 2 earned runs or less in seven straight starts before giving up 6 runs against Kansas City last start. I don't expect his struggles to continue here. 

The White Sox offense is worse than league average. Chicago is a better team this year, but they are due for some regression after quite a few fortunate close wins early in the season. 

Miguel Gonzalez starts for the White Sox, and he isn't good. Gonzalez has peripherals that suggest he should have about a 5 ERA on a consistent basis, and that's what his ERA is right now. The Yankees expect Jacoby Ellsbury back in the lineup here, and with Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran hitting the ball better of late, this lineup should be much more potent.

The White Sox bullpen is good, but it doesn't compare to the Yankees bullpen. I don't expect this one to be close. Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants have played two straight games that have finished under the total despite the roof being open at Chase Field. While both of those games were low scoring, the final scores weren't quite indicative of how many scoring chances there were. 

Both days there were a bunch of guys left on base by both teams, and on Saturday there were 3 balls hit off the wall that were nearly home runs. 

Jake Peavy and Patrick Corbin are both having problems right now. Peavy just isn't good anymore. He is too old and he's lost his stuff. His fastball is much slower and his walk rate is the highest of his career right now. Corbin has pitched four times with the roof open at Chase Field and he has a 6.75 ERA in those games. 

The roof is slated to be open on Saturday with temperatures of 98 degrees and winds blowing out at 15 mph. That's perfect conditions for the ball to fly very well. Both teams should plate several runs in this one. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays have several important advantages in this game. First, Marco Estrada is a better pitcher than Colby Lewis. Second, the Blue Jays clearly have the more potent offense. Third, the Jays bullpen is much better than the Rangers bullpen.

Colby Lewis is pure fade material at home for me. Lewis has a 3.20 ERA on the year, but his FIP is 5.14. This suggests he has had some really good luck thus far and Toronto is the type of team who can change that around pretty quickly.

R.A. Dickey shut down Texas yesterday, and for some teams it can be tough to hit a regular pitcher the day after facing a knuckleballer.

Estrada has a stellar 1.50 ERA in three career starts vs. Texas. Even more impressive is the fact that he has a 1.50 ERA in two starts in Texas, which is tough on pitchers. 

Lewis has an ERA above 5 in the past two years at home.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday Night KNOCKOUT* I had the over in last night's Tigers/Orioles game, and that play failed badly as the final finished 1-0. I don't think that's going to happen again here. In the matchup last night between Tillman and Verlander there were two pitchers capable of throwing great games on certain occasions. Anibal Sanchez and Mike Wright do not seem to fit that mold right now.

Anibal Sanchez has zero confidence right now and his mechanics are off. Sanchez has a 5.89 ERA, and it isn't because of bad luck. Sanchez just hasn't been good. He is walking 5.4 batters per nine innings which is easily a career high. He's become a guy who gives up a lot of homers the last couple years, and this Orioles lineup definitely has some great home run hitters.

Mike Wright hasn't proven himself in the big leagues yet. While it's possible he will end up being a good pitcher, I don't think he is ready yet. Wright doesn't miss enough bats.

These are two great offenses and with these guys on the mound, I expect to see a lot of runs. 

The over is 18-6-3 in Sanchez's last 27 starts. The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two in Baltimore. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is scoring almost 5 runs per game at home this year. San Francisco's offense is always much better away from home, since they play in such a strong pitcher's park.

Chase Field is a tremendous park for overs with the roof open in the warm weather. The roof is slated to be open for this one with a game time temperature of 99 degrees. The ball should be flying extremely well here.

Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my database ranks him in the top 25% of over umpires in the majors. 

Jeff Samardzija has an ERA above 5 when pitching in Arizona and Shelby Miller has been a mess all year. Miller is walking way too many people, and the Giants have the hitters to make him pay for his mistakes. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The San Francisco Giants send Jeff Samardzija to the mound for this one. Samardzija comes into this game in great form. He has been very sharp in his last few outings. 

Samardzija has a career ERA of 2.51 in May. While this isn't something I weight very heavily, it is true that he is a better first half of the year pitcher by a wide margin in his career.

Shelby Miller is having all sorts of mechanical problems and some speculate he may be injured. There are warning signs all over the place on Miller. He has walked 6.44 batters per 9 innings this year, which is worse than any other starter in the majors. He has fewer strikeouts than walks on the season.

Miller is having severe problems with the long ball as well. Chase Field's roof will be open for this game, and the Giants have plenty of guys capable of taking him deep. Miller ranks very close to the bottom of the league so far this year in swinging strike percentages. Basically, he just isn't getting many guys to swing and miss. All of his peripherals suggest this poor start is no fluke, he has just been very bad.

The Giants have the better lineup, the slightly better defense, the slightly better bullpen, and the much better starting pitcher.

San Francisco was swept at home by Arizona in April in a four game series, and I have no doubt that revenge will be on their minds throughout this series.

Take San Francisco big. MLB TOP Play of the Week  

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays both have bad lineups. These are two offenses that I expect to see scuffle frequently throughout the course of the season. 

While Tampa Bay is better against lefties than righties, Rich Hill has really impressed me so far this year. Hill hasn't given up more than 4 hits in any of his last five starts. The Rays are likely to have a tough time stringing together hits.

Jake Odorizzi is a guy I'm high on right now. Odorizzi has always been good at home, and now he is maturing into a complete pitcher. He is good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the big innings.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Washington Nationals have Gio Gonzalez on the hill here. Gonzalez has been very solid so far this year, and he is a guy that has proven to be pretty consistent over the years. Gonzalez has a 2.38 ERA against Miami in 10 career starts.

Tom Koehler starts for the Marlins and he has been awful on the road his whole career. Koehler has been really bad at Washington. In his career, he has a 5.60 ERA in six starts at Washington. There's no reason to expect him to be any better in this start.

Washington lost four straight at Chicago, but they got back on track against the Tigers at home. This is about the most I'll ever lay on a moneyline, but I think this price should be around -180 or -190.

The Nats are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 home starts vs. the Marlins. The Marlins are 0-4 in Koehler's last 4 road starts against Washington. The Nationals are 9-1 in Gonzalez's last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 17-1 angle. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Baltimore Orioles rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Detroit Tigers rank 12th. 

Baltimore's offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. The Orioles have power hitters and good on base percentage guys and that's a nice combination to have. Detroit hasn't hit as well as expected so far this year, but it is only a matter of time.

Justin Verlander has been inconsistent this year, and his best days are clearly behind him. Chris Tillman is having a great start to the season, but I don't see him keeping up this kind of pace. Tillman just doesn't have good enough stuff. 

With these two offenses, I'll gladly take the over at this low number. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The San Francisco Giants have been a good road team the last few years. San Francisco is 24-9 in their last 33 games in Arizona. 

At this point, I have Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke rated about evenly. There is no doubt the Giants have the better bullpen, and I believe the Giants have the better offense as well. The Giants offense has slumped in the past at home, and they have often broke out in a a big way on the road. So far this year, the Giants offense has been near the top of the majors in run production on the road. Chase Field is a great hitter's park, and I like their chances of coming out of the slump in this trip.

Zack Greinke is better than his numbers so far would suggest, but I do believe he will finish with much worse numbers than last year. The Diamondbacks are 5-12 at home so far this year.

Finally, the Arizona Diamondbacks swept San Francisco on 4 straight games in San Francisco earlier this year. The Giants are a proud team and the better overall team. I expect them to get some revenge and I like this price. Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Mets start Noah Syndergaard in this one, and I rank him as one of the best pitchers in baseball now. This guy has amazing stuff, and he misses bats about as well as anyone in the majors. He is averaging more than 12 strikeouts per 9 innings which is truly tremendous.

Kenta Maeda has good stuff, but he has been a bit fortunate so far this year. I expect him to have a good season, but he isn't on the same level as Syndergaard. The Mets are also a better offense against right handed pitchers than the Dodgers are so far this year.

The Dodgers are 2-7 in their last 9 home games. The Mets are 39-17 in their last 56 road games. 

Syndergaard shut down the Dodgers in LA in the playoffs last year. I think he does the same here. Take the New York Mets. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* This is a matchup two strong pitchers, and these are two offenses that are rather inconsistent. At times this year both the Mets and the Dodgers have looked good on offense, but at other times these offenses have been terrible. They'll have tough challenges in this one.

Noah Syndergaard is one of the top ten pitchers in baseball without any question. He is striking out 12.5 batters per nine innings which is great stuff. Syndergaard isn't going to back down from a challenge either. He pitched great at Dodger Stadium in the playoffs last year. The Mets bullpen is one of the top three in the majors also.

Kenta Maeda has been great so far this year, and I expect the Mets to struggle for a while against him with his deceptive delivery. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Dodgers last 5 games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 8-0-1 in Mark Ripperger's last 9 games as the home plate umpire. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a better team than the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati got a close win last night, and I like Pittsburgh's chances of getting them back tonight.

Alfredo Simon is definitely of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Simon threw his best game of the year so far in his last outing against the Brewers. I don't expect a repeat performance. The Pirates hitters have a solid on base percentage of .349 against Simon. Pittsburgh has a top five offense against right-handed pitchers, and Simon is one of the worst they'll face all year.

Juan Nicasio isn't really the reason I made this pick, but he hasn't been bad for Pittsburgh. He's striking out 9.19 batters per 9 innings, which is a pretty good number. The Reds offense isn't very good, and they definitely have plenty of guys who strike out a lot.

Also note that with yesterday's game being postponed, the Pirates best relievers are now ready to pitch in this game, while the Reds bullpen is just terrible all around.

The Reds are 17-43 in their last 60 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 2-5 in Simon's last 7 start following a quality start in his last appearance. Take Pittsburgh.  

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Tampa Bay Rays offense is awful against right handed pitching. Taijuan Walker has the stuff to have a breakout season for the Mariners, and he's off to a great start. Tampa Bay is able to put up runs against lefties, but against quality right-handers this Rays team is often shut down.

Chris Archer isn't off to a great start this year, but he has shown signs of coming into form of late. Archer has tremendous stuff, and I believe in him long term. The Mariners aren't a great hitting team, and Archer definitely has the ability to throw a gem. Archer has a great 2.99 ERA in day games in his career.

An under umpire and get away day are good factors too. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is going to break out at some point this year, but Madison Bumgarner is a really tough guy to do it against. Bumgarner will want to play the role of stopper here as the Giants have been skidding lately. He has proven very good in this role in the past.

Marcus Stroman has quality stuff, and he has an ERA (3.08) more than half a run lower during day games in his career than night games. With this being a day game after a night game and get away day I do expect some top players to be out of the lineup in this one. 

Tony Randazzo is the umpire here, and he has been on a nice 10-1 run to the under in his last 11 games behind the plate. His big strike zone should help both pitchers a lot.

The under is 10-0-1 in the Blue Jays last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0-2 in the Blue Jays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Stroman's last 4 starts after the team allowed 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games. The under is 4-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 interleague starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 50-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago White Sox aren't as good as their record would indicate. They are definitely much better than they were a year ago, but they are due for some regression as a team. No one is more due for regression than Mat Latos, who is stranding runners on base at an almost 90% clip. That isn't even close to sustainable. 

Cole Hamels has been money in Texas. The Rangers are 14-2 in his last 16 starts. Hamels is a guy who usually goes deep into the game, and that should help save the Rangers bullpen here. The White Sox are only mediocre offensively against lefties, and Hamels is a good one.

I look for Texas to get to Mat Latos here. Take Texas in this one. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Matt Cain has been a great fade at home of late, and I think this Toronto offense is due to breakout soon. It could easily come against a guy like Cain, who doesn't have the high end stuff he had in the past. The Giants are 7-19 in Cain's last 26 home starts. 

J.A. Happ isn't a great pitcher, but he has been giving this team solid innings, and he gives them a very clear pitching edge over Matt Cain in his current form. 

The Blue Jays are 6-0 in Happ's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. I like Toronto in this one and believe this is a good value on the Jays. Take Toronto. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The Tampa Bay Rays have a very underrated starter in Drew Smyly. Smyly is striking out guys at an extremely impressive rate. He is striking out 10.66 batters per 9 innings, which is extremely impressive since it almost matches Clayton Kershaw's strikeout rate per 9 innings so far this year. 

Tampa Bay's offense isn't any good against right handed pitching, but they are a top ten offense against left-handed pitchers. Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he doesn't miss many bats. The Rays have some nice power bats against lefties, and Miley is giving up the home run ball more often so far this year.

Seattle has a .182 average against Smyly. Tampa Bay is priced at a nice value here. Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Yankees send Masahiro Tanaka to the mound in this one, and he has been excellent this year. He hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a single game this year. Tanaka is producing very high swinging strike rates which is a great sign. Occasionally, he has trouble with walking too many people, but in this one Angel Hernandez is behind the plate and he has a larger than average strike zone that will help a lot.

Kris Medlen has been awful this year. He isn't missing bats at all, and the Yankees offense got some momentum going last night as Beltran and McCann busted out of recent slumps. The Royals have a big problem when it comes to starting pitching, and I think that shows up again here. The Yankees should get Starlin Castro back in this one as well.

Take New York -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox start Miguel Gonzalez in this one. Gonzalez was released by the Orioles. Gonzalez is a guy who works hard on the mound, but his stuff just isn't that good. His stuff was never anything better than average, and now he is in decline. Chicago is having a nice season, but they have a weakness at the back of the rotation. Gonzalez is getting a shot, but I don't expect things to go well for him in a hitter-friendly park like this one.

Colby Lewis isn't good, and he definitely isn't good when pitching at home. In Lewis' last 35 starts at home he has a 5.54 ERA. I expect the White Sox to get to him, and then the Texas pen is one of the worst in the league right now as well.

Warm weather should help the ball carry well on Monday night in Texas.

The over is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last 4 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0-1 in Lewis' last 5 Monday starts. The over is 5-0-1 in Lewis' last 6 starts after Texas scored 5 runs or more in the previous game. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Houston Astros are a team that swings and misses a lot. Corey Kluber is a guy who misses a lot of bats. A free swinging team like Houston doesn't matchup very well against a guy like Kluber.

Kluber appears to have regained his top form as well. After a stretch of subpar performance for a while, Kluber has locked things in of late. He has thrown two great games against Detroit in the past few weeks. 

Mike Fiers isn't necessarily a guy I'm really high on, but he is better than he has pitched so far this year at least. Houston's bullpen is also significantly better than their numbers so far this year would indicate. 

The under is 21-5-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams. The under is 6-2-1 in Kluber's last 9 starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins are 23-3 in Jose Fernandez's last 26 home games. Fernandez has absolutely filthy stuff. While some people are down on him some after a somewhat slower start this year, I'm not among them. Fernandez should be just fine. He is especially dominant at home.In this one, Fernandez is up against a Milwaukee Brewers team with all sorts of injury problems.

Milwaukee's bullpen is the second worst in baseball (Reds the worst), and the Brewers are likely to give up quite a few runs in this game. Wily Peralta is coming off the paternity list, which is a difficult spot to start with (no sleep, etc), and Peralta has been terrible of late. In his last 8 games, he has allowed 5 runs or more in 6 of those games. If he does that again here, this play is a huge favorite to cash in big.

The huge starting pitching and bullpen advantage here makes this a strong play. Take Miami -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox offense is the single best in the majors against right handed pitching. Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, but I'm not sure he is as good as his numbers from the past couple years suggest. Gray's peripherals suggest he got a bit lucky in those years, and now he goes to a hitter-friendly park against a red hot offense. Gray isn't in his best form right now.

Clay Buchholz is a tough one to figure out, because he can be so good or he can be terrible. Buchholz has consistently been terrible against Oakland though. He has an ERA of 6.81 in 8 career starts against the A's. 

The wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph here.

The over is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Buchholz's last 5 starts vs. Oakland. I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Steven Wright has pitched well this year, but I don't think he's as good as his numbers this year would lead you to believe. Wright is nearly 32 years old and struggled to make it into the majors for a long time. He had mediocre Triple A numbers for many years and had a 4.04 ERA last year. His 1.67 ERA this year won't stay for too much longer.

Luis Severino was very fortunate last year. Severino had a 2.89 ERA but a FIP of 4.37. His FIP is 4.44 this year and his ERA is 6.31. Severino has potential, but right now he is being crushed by the long ball. 

Boston is first in the majors against right handed pitching, and the Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this year.

I expect both teams to get on the board plenty of times in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays are two of the worst offenses in the majors against right handed pitching. The Angels are averaging only 3.43 runs per game against right handed pitching and a .237 batting average. The Rays have been even worse. Tampa Bay has a .211 batting average against righties and they are averaging only 3.08 runs per game.

Matt Andriese and Nick Tropeano are certainly not stars, but they don't need to be against these offenses. The Rays bullpen ranks as league average in ERA while the Angels rank as the fourth best bullpen in the majors by that measure. 

The under is 17-6-4 in the Rays last 27 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0-1 in Tropeano's last 5 starts. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies have too big of a pitching mismatch in their favor for me to ignore this game. Aaron Nola is absolutely dealing right now, and he pitches deep into the game. Nola has an amazing curveball, and his control has improved this year.

Justin Nicolino has been much worse when pitching at home than on the road. Nicolino has never been very good in Triple A, so I see no real reason to expect him to be good at the major league level. Nicolino doesn't strike anyone out, and the Phillies should be able to square some up against him.

How good has Nola been on the road this year? Nola has a 0.64 ERA in four road starts this year. Nola has a great history in day games as well with a career 2.51 ERA in those situations. 

The Phillies have been bad against lefties this year, but they have a terrible .247 batting average on balls in play that suggests they will see improvement against lefties, and Nicolino isn't good. Take the Phillies. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have been piling up the runs lately, so we get a total that is a little too high here based on recency bias from the oddsmakers. San Francisco's Johnny Cueto should be a great fit for this park, and I expect him to pitch very well at home through the season. Cueto is at his best early in the year. 

Jon Gray is a guy who is going to be very good. Gray might struggle at times in Coors Field, but he has elite stuff and is a guy who can shut down a lot of lineups away from Coors Field.

The ball shouldn't be flying well here with a high dewpoint and a chance for a passing shower in San Francisco on Saturday afternoon. 

I see a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jeff Locke isn't a good pitcher, and he is a really bad pitcher on the road. Adam Wainwright was a great pitcher a few years ago, but he has a lot to prove about what kind of pitcher he is right now. Wainwright has an ERA above 6 on the year.

Locke has allowed Cardinals hitters to have a .381 OBP against him in his career. Wainwright has been amazing over the course of his career, but one team that has given him trouble is the Pirates. The Pirates have a .351 OBP against Wainwright. 

Dana DeMuth is a good over umpire in this one, and the weather is a big help too. The temperature is expected to reach 85 degrees and the wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Locke's last 4 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-2 in the Cardinals last 8 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers meet early on Saturday afternoon. Detroit starts Mike Pelfrey, and he is pure fade material right now. The oddsmakers know it though, and have made the Rangers a pretty big favorite despite having the shaky A.J. Griffin on the mound here. 

Griffin has pitched well so far this year, but looking back at his history you'll see that he has been very up and down. This Detroit lineup is far better than they have looked of late, and I think they'll bounce out of this slump very soon.

Marquez is the umpire here and that's good for the over. The wind will be blowing out at 15 mph during the game. Take the over. 

*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees CASH* This rivalry got a little bit more heated after last night's very strange finish. Ron Kulpa had one of the biggest strike zones ever in the 9th inning last night and the Red Sox ended up losing by a run. They had that game stolen from them, and they'll be anxious to get back on track here.

David Price has pitched much better than his ERA would suggest this year. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which is on an ERA scale) is less than 3, so he is certainly due for some positive regression. The Yankees aren't good against lefties, and Price is one of the best.

Nate Eovaldi has struggled mightily against Boston in the past, and Boston is the best team in the majors against right-handed pitching so far this year. 

Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 following a win. They are 0-4 in Eovaldi's last 4 against the AL East. A 14-1 angle. Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cincinnati Reds have the worst bullpen in the majors. In fact, they have the worst bullpen the major leagues have seen in many years. Cincinnati's bullpen has allowed at least one run in 23 straight games. That's truly mind boggling. Milwaukee's bullpen is the second worst pen in my bullpen rankings. If both bullpens end up in the game for a while, that's great for over bettors.

Tyler Cravy starts for Milwaukee and he had a 5.70 ERA last year in the majors. He has only been mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to believe he'll be a good big leaguer anytime soon. Tim Adleman starts for Cincinnati. He only made 3 starts in Triple A before being moved up to the majors. He has decent stuff, but I don't expect him to last late into the game.

The over is 12-1 in the Brewers last 13 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* Marcus Stroman is a quality pitcher, but the oddsmakers are underrating Kenta Maeda in this one. Maeda has looked excellent in his first few starts in the majors.

While Toronto smashed the ball around the yard last night, the Blue Jays offense has been very inconsistent so far this year. Los Angeles has the potential to score in bunches with a strong middle of the order as well. 

The Dodgers have been good on the road this year, and Toronto hasn't been doing anything to deserve this kind of price. The value side is Los Angeles. Take the Dodgers here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Two young starters in this one, and I think we see plenty of runs. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best over umpires in all of baseball. Neither pitcher will be getting the corners in this one.

The Red Sox offense is tremendous against right handed pitchers. They are scoring 6 runs per game against right handed starters on average so far this year. The White Sox will be starting Erik Johnson here, and I don't believe he has staying power in the big leagues. Johnson doesn't have that pitch to put away the opposition.

Henry Owens has more potential, but he walks too many guys for my liking, and Emmel will make that difficult on him.

The over is 6-0 in Owens' last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 7-0 in Johnson's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 8-0-1 in Johnson's last 9 when his opponent scores 5 or more in their previous game. The over is 2-0-2 in Johnson's last 4 home starts. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Chicago White Sox are better than they were last year, but they aren't as good as their record would indicate. Chicago has gotten a lot of late-game heroics to pull out close wins this year, and that kind of thing will even out over time.

The Boston Red Sox absolutely smash right handed pitching, and Erik Johnson is unlikely to be able to quiet this team. Johnson doesn't have high-end stuff, and he hasn't even been that good in Triple A. 

Henry Owens has been inconsistent in his young career, but he has very good stuff. Owens works against a White Sox lineup that ranks 23rd in wOBA against lefties. 

Take Boston here. 

*4 Star MLB BEST Bet* It's Chase Anderson vs. Alfredo Simon here and that should mean a lot of runs here. That's not the only reason to like the over though, since these are the two worst bullpens in the majors as well.

Chase Anderson has potential, but in his last couple starts he has been absolutely rocked, and in recent quotes he sounds like he has lost some confidence. 

Alfredo Simon has a 13.50 ERA on the year, and he looks like a guy who has lost his stuff in a big way in the past year or so. He is almost 35 years old, and his velocity isn't very impressive.

Both starters have meltdown potential like crazy, and these bullpens are capable of giving up runs in a hurry.

The over is 11-1 in the Brewers last 12 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings at Cincinnati between these two. A 22-2 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Conley threw a no hitter through 7 and 2/3 innings in his last game. He threw more pitches in that game than he has thrown in any other game in his career. Conley is improving and I like his potential, but I see this as a tough spot for him. Most pitchers have a "letdown" spot after that kind of performance, and a youngster coming off a big workload is a prime candidate for that.

Robbie Ray is a solid, but unspectacular lefty for Arizona. Miami smashes left-handed pitching, as does Arizona. These two teams are very comfortable against the lefties, and that's a big reason for this play.

The weather should be nice enough for the roof to be open and the wind will be blowing out here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie Smasher* The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds battle tonight in Cincinnati. Alfredo Simon gets the ball for the Reds, and this play is definitely a fade on Simon. Simon turns 35 years old this week, and his once questionable stuff has now become downright bad. He has a 13.50 ERA and it isn't because of bad luck. Simon's peripherals are terrible, and there are no signs that he'll get better soon. The Reds wouldn't have him in the rotation if they had any other choice, but everyone else is hurt right now.

Milwaukee's Chase Anderson has been hit hard lately, but Anderson does have a pretty good ceiling. Milwaukee's bullpen isn't good, but it's definitely better than the Reds. Cincinnati's bullpen is the worst in the majors by a wide margin.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Detroit Tigers have lost all five games so far this year against their AL Central foes from Cleveland. They were swept at home by Cleveland and now they have lost the first two in Cleveland. I'm not big on the "teams avoiding a sweep theory" normally, but I do believe we'll get a good effort from Detroit here.

More importantly though, Trevor Bauer has a horrible history against the Tigers. Bauer also has zero confidence right now, and I think this is a terrible matchup for him. In his career against Detroit Bauer has an awful 6.81 ERA. When pitching at home against Detroit, that balloons to slightly over 8. 

Michael Fulmer has a high upside and he faces a Cleveland team that will be without Yan Gomes tonight. Gimenez is starting in place of Gomes, and that is definitely a downgrade. 

At this plus money price, I'm on Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jaime Garcia is great at home. He is also much better during the day. Garcia has a 2.98 career ERA in day games. He has a 2.69 ERA in games at home. Jerad Eickhoff had a 6.33 ERA in four career day games started, and his road ERA is 4.35.

The Cardinals are tied with the Red Sox for the best wOBA in the majors against right handed pitching. Eickhoff will likely struggle to shut down this lineup. Even more important may be the fact that this Phillies bullpen is awful, and Eickhoff doesn't pitch deep into games very often.

The Cardinals are probably better than their record, and while the Phillies are improved I don't believe they are this good. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't had the best start to the season, but they are definitely still a good team. The Dodgers crushed left-handed pitching last year, but they have started the year slowly against lefties in 2016. A big part of that is thanks to same bad batted ball luck. The Dodgers have the 5th lowest batting average on balls in play against lefties of any team in the majors. That should normalize over time.

Tampa Bay is unquestionably better against lefties than they are against righties, but this Rays offense isn't very good. I like Drew Smyly, but I never expected to see the Rays at this sort of a price against the Dodgers. Alex Wood isn't a great pitcher, but he isn't bad either. The Dodgers bullpen is at least equal to the Rays pen.

This is more of a price play than anything else. This line suggests the Dodgers would only win 40% or less of the time in this matchup. That's too low. Take Los Angeles.

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers lineup is very good, and it would be tough to find a better first five in any other batting order in the majors. Cleveland's offense is just slightly better than the league average against right-handed pitching. They are certainly capable of scoring several against a subpar pitcher.

Anibal Sanchez has all sorts of mechanical problems right now, and his confidence is gone. The Indians lit him up a couple weeks ago, and I don't see any reason to believe he'll quiet them down in this game. 

Corey Kluber is a great pitcher, but the Tigers have been very tough on him throughout his career. Detroit hitters collectively have an impressive .318 average against Kluber. 

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0-1 in Sanchez's last 7 Wednesday starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team that doesn't have a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. The over is 4-0 in home plate umpire Gabe Morales' last 4 games involving the Tigers and 4-0 in his last 4 games involving the Indians. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's and the Seattle Mariners finish their three game series on Wednesday afternoon. This is a game I was watching for the under, and when it went to 7.5 that was enough for me to pull the trigger.

Sean Manaea is Oakland's top pitching prospect. After a shaky first start, I like his chances of pitching well in this second start of his career. Seattle is a little bit below league average against lefties.

The Oakland offense is terrible, and Felix Hernandez has tremendous numbers against this team. Collectively, their OBP against Felix is only .261. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors and this is a get away day game with an under umpire in Adam Hamari. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Sonny Gray and the Oakland A's host Hisashi Iwakuma and the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. Both of these guys are coming off rough starts, and that's what gives us value on the under in this one. 

There's nothing about the Oakland lineup that scares anyone. Oakland may well have the worst lineup in the American League. Seattle's offense is improved, but they are about league average on offense still.

Both lineups have an on base percentage of less than .300 against the opposing pitcher in this one. The Mariners have a .265 OBP against Gray and the A's have a .287 OBP against Iwakuma.

Dan Bellino is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* I still believe Patrick Corbin is a good big league pitcher. Corbin has had some difficult starts of late, but Corbin should be rounding into form after a long recovery from injury. Corbin has very good stuff, and if he can avoid the big innings I see him having a good season this year.

There's nothing to suggest that Justin Nicolino will be a good big league pitcher, at least not yet. He shut down the Dodgers last game when the Dodgers offense was in a tailspin, and now the books are giving him and the Marlins a bunch of respect. Nicolino's minor league stats aren't very impressive, and he'll be up against an Arizona team that crushes left handed pitching.

Arizona is 6-1 in Corbin's last 7 road starts. They are 4-0 in their last 4 in Miami. Take Arizona. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* This total is a full run too low. To start with, we have Chad Fairchild as the umpire here, and he ranks in my database in the top 25 umpires as far as fewest strikes called in the past two years, so that is helpful to the over.

Jeff Samardzija has been making too many mistake pitches inside the strike zone so far this year. The Reds offense is not spectacular, but they do still have some offensive talent. Joey Votto had a big hit last night, and there is no way he is going to continue to slump the way he has in the first month of the season. Cincinnati should get scoring chances.

San Francisco's offense has been on fire of late. Only twice in their last ten games have they scored less than 4 runs. The Giants have scored 7 runs or more in four of those last ten games. This Giants offense is very good, especially when they are on the road. They are playing in a ballpark that is much more hitter-friendly than their home park here.

Cincinnati's bullpen is the worst bullpen I've seen in a very long time. This Reds bullpen is just awful. The numbers they are putting up across the board are worst in the majors by a mile. Moscot isn't anything special as the starter, and once he goes out of the game, things look even worse for Cincinnati.

The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 overall. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games. The over is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. The over is 5-0 in Fairchild's last 5 games behind home plate. A 38-1 angle. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEY* The San Diego Padres offense has hit left handed pitching well this year, but they rank dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rockies lineup is good, but they aren't great away from home. 

Jon Gray is an up and coming star. While he needs to improve his command, Gray has all the tools to be a very good pitcher for this Rockies team. He faces the weakest offense he'll face all year.

James Shields is a quality pitcher who eats up a lot of innings and does a good job keeping his team in the game.

This one is played in San Diego, which is one of the best pitcher parks in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals offense is in a deep slump right now, and I don't like their chances of busting out of it against Taijuan Walker.

Walker is a breakout candidate this year, and he has pitched very well so far this season. Walker has been ability to limit the amount of free passes this year. He has better command of his strikeout pitches now than he has had at any other point in his career.

Ian Kennedy is off to a solid start to the year, and I think he can have a quality year for the Royals this year. The Seattle offense is improved, but they still aren't great.

These are two of the top five bullpens in my rankings, so I expect good work in the late innings. 

The under is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Kennedy's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Walker's last 4 starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cardinals and Nationals meet in what should be a low scoring game on Sunday afternoon. Carlos Martinez has turned into a nice starting pitcher, and while Max Scherzer hasn't been at his best recently, it is just a matter of time before he turns things around.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the single highest strike percentage called in the majors in the past 7 years. Obviously, that's very helpful to the under. Both Scherzer and Martinez are guys who can punch out a lot of batters, and Eddings has a very high strikeout to walk ratio.

Look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* I rate the Milwaukee Brewers as the second worst bullpen in the majors according to my numbers. Miami's bullpen ranks right in the middle of the pack. Tom Koehler is much worse on the road than at home. Wily Peralta has absolutely no confidence in himself right now, and he has been getting crushed by just about everyone this year. 

This is a game where I think big innings are likely on each side. The early sharp money has sided with the over, and I agree with that. I think we'll see plenty of runs. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been dreadful against right handed pitching this year. The Angels have been pretty good against lefties. Derek Holland has really struggled with this Angels team in his career. 

Matt Shoemaker isn't fooling anyone this year. He seems to be having problems with his mechanics, and that is never a good thing. Shoemaker relies heavily on deception, and right now that isn't working.

These two bullpens are really bad. A lot of scoring late in this one should come as no surprise. 

The over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two in Texas. Take the over.