*3 Star Play Under* It's hard to overstate how great Jacob Degrom has been this year. Degrom has a 1.75 ERA and a 1.82 FIP, so it hasn't been good luck, he's just been tremendous. Degrom walked none and struck out 13 in a dazzling performance in his last outing. In his last 27 innings pitched, he has allowed a grand total of one run. 

Degrom has always been great at Citi Field. He has a career ERA of 2.31 at home. His WHIP is only 1.037 at home in his career.

The Marlins have the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching, and it isn't close. Degrom should be able to shut them down and pitch deep into this game.

Dan Straily has pitched much better in his last couple games, and he's going against a Mets lineup that is severely short-handed right now. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Atlanta Braves offense is very good, but they are much better against lefties than righties. Atlanta has a .321 weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but their wOBA is all the way up at .358 against lefties. They'll face right-handed Vince Velasquez in this one. 

Velasquez has pushed up his swinging strike and strikeout rates this year, and advanced statistics show he has gotten a little unlucky on the whole this season. 

Brandon McCarthy starts for the Braves. His swinging strike is down drastically and his velocity is down a bit as well. McCarthy has had some really poor outings of late, and I don't trust him to get deep into the game.

I rate the Phillies bullpen as better than the Braves bullpen, and we have the Phillies laying a short price here at home.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland A's Moneyline* The Oakland A's have a lot of depth and a lot of power in their lineup. Oakland ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching so far this year. They are up against a very subpar right handed pitcher in Joe Biagini here. 

Biagini has allowed 3 runs or more in less than 6 innings pitched in 12 of his last 14 starts. Biagini has a 7.98 ERA on the season and a 6.14 FIP. He is giving up a ton of hard contact on fly balls, and that means a bunch of homers. Oakland has plenty of pop. 

Daniel Mengden gives the A's a decisive pitching advantage. Mengden is averaging less than one walk per nine innings, and he has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.56 FIP. Mengden has allowed 2 runs or less in five of his last six starts. 

The Blue Jays bullpen isn't nearly as strong without Osuna at the back end. Some of the middle relievers have been overused lately, and Toronto's bullpen blew a late lead yesterday. 

Toronto is 3-14 in Biagini's last 17 starts. They are 2-8 in his last 10 home starts. Oakland is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

Take Oakland. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins are expected to be without Joe Mauer here as he left last night's game due to a minor back injury. Miguel Sano is still out due to an injury as well. Sano is their best power hitter and Mauer is their most consistent hitter overall. This lineup is significantly weakened right now.

Ryan Braun is on the DL for the Brewers, and they certainly miss his bat. The Brewers rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major offensive categories so far this year. Milwaukee's bullpen has been absolutely amazing, and they haven't been overworked of late, so most of their top arms should be available here.

Freddy Peralta faced 21 batters at Coors Field in his MLB debut and he struck out 13 of them. I don't have to tell you that isn't an easy task. Peralta hides the ball extremely well and his deceptive delivery should make him tough for hitters the first few times they see him. He has been very good in Triple A.

Fernando Romero has been excellent in his first three big league starts. He has a 12.9% swinging strike rate. Romero consistently throws 97 or 98 mph and still manages to do a solid job limiting hard contact.

Mark Ripperger is behind the plate and I consider him a big under umpire. He ranks in the top six in the majors in strike percentage called in the past five years. The wind is blowing in as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks go to New York City to take on the Mets on Friday night. The Diamondbacks offense has been one of the most disappointing in the majors. Arizona is where they are at right now because of their pitching staff. The Mets started the season hitting the ball well, but injuries stopped them in their tracks in recent weeks.

Arizona is without A.J. Pollock and Jake Lamb due to injury and that is two key losses. Pollock had been on fire offensively until getting hurt a few days ago. 

The Mets are without Todd Frazier and Yoenis Cespedes here. They might also be without Juan Lagares. 

On the season, the Mets are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average and the Diamondbacks are 28th. 

Godley has proven to be a quality starting pitcher and Arizona's bullpen is great. 

Jacob Degrom hasn't allowed a run in his last 20 innings pitched. Degrom has tremendous splits at home throughout his career, and his swinging strike rate is a career high 14.7%. He's pitching at an elite level.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph in this one at Citi Field with temperatures only in the 50's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies are too big of an underdog here. San Francisco sits at 22-22 on the year. The Giants are a mediocre team. Jeff Samardzija goes to the mound for them here. Samardzija has been really bad so far this year. In five starts, he has an ERA of 6.94 and his FIP is 6.28 so he isn't just getting unlucky. He has walked 15 guys and only struck out 20 on the year. 

Colorado's Chad Bettis has a 1.35 ERA on the road this year. I'm not going to pretend his ERA will stay that low on the road, but Bettis has been much better on the road during his career. Opponents have a weighted on base average of .358 against Bettis at Coors Field and only a .326 wOBA when he pitches on the road. 

Bettis has allowed a low .278 wOBA against the Giants lineup in his career. Samardzija has struggled mightily in a pretty large sample size against the Rockies. Colorado's hitters have an impressive .386 wOBA against Samardzija.

Colorado is 25-12 in Bettis' last 37 starts. The Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games. The Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. They are also only 2-7 in Samardzija's last 9 starts.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros send Justin Verlander to the mound on Wednesday night against the Los Angeles Angels. Verlander is throwing the ball as well right now as he has anytime in his career. Verlander has a 1.21 ERA so far this year, which obviously can't stay that low, but his advanced statistics are the best they have been in his long and terrific career. 

Verlander is in great form, and he goes up against an Angels lineup he has owned. The Angels have had a relatively large sample size of 196 at bats against Verlander, and they have a horrible .128 average. Mike Trout is 2/23 against him. Ian Kinsler is 4/32 against him. 

Garrett Richards is a good pitcher, but he is far less consistent than Verlander.

The offenses I rate similarly. The Angels have hit better so far this year, but the Astros have some very solid depth in the lineup.

The Astros have a huge bullpen edge. The Angels have a worse than average bullpen, while the Astros bullpen is top three in the majors.

A short price with a dominant pitcher and great bullpen.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle ML* The Mariners are getting no respect here. Robinson Cano being out absolutely hurts this team, but we shouldn't pretend that he is the only reason they are winning games. Seattle has had a great lineup against lefties all season. In fact, Seattle is third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this season.  The Mariners have several guys who aren't very good against right handed pitchers, but they excel against lefties.

Mike Minor is a middle of the road lefty. Minor has given up a lot of hard contact this year, and he has been worse in his last couple starts. 

Mike Leake is due for some positive regression. His batting average allowed on balls in play is at a high level of .319. Leake is facing a Rangers offense that ranks in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. 

The Mariners have a big bullpen advantage in this one as well. Texas' bullpen is badly banged up. 

The Rangers will likely be without Adrian Beltre again here, and Elvis Andrus remains out of the lineup.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star Play on Brewers ML* Patrick Corbin's velocity has dropped drastically in his last couple outings. He has still pitched pretty well in those games, but Corbin's fastball velocity has dropped 3 mph on average in his last two outings. That's usually a sign of major problems ahead. Corbin may well be injured, and with this question mark around him and against a good team, I'll fade the DBacks.

Milwaukee has a better bullpen than Arizona according to the advanced metrics. The Brewers have had the worst batted ball luck against lefties of any team in the majors. This lineup should end up being pretty good this year as well.

Junior Guerra goes against a DBacks offense that ranks in the bottom six in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. Guerra has a 3.09 ERA and a 3.84 FIP this season.

Grab the big price on the underdog here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City are much better against left handed pitching than they are against right handers. Tampa Bay is 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Kansas City is 15th. 

We have two young lefties going in this one, and neither of these guys have been able to pitch deep into the game very often. Kansas City's bullpen is the worst in the majors, and Tampa Bay's bullpen is no better than league average. A lot of innings from the bullpens should mean more scoring chances.

The weather here is very favorable for an over. A temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out 13-15 mph are great for the over. There is a chance of rain as well- that could delay the game which means more of the bullpen and in this case that is a positive.

The Royals have allowed a whopping 49 runs in their last six games. The Rays have allowed 35 runs in their last 4 games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays start Joe Biagini here. Biagini pitched decently last year for a while in the starter's role for Toronto, but the wheels fell off after a while. He didn't pitch very well in Triple A as a starter earlier this year, and now he has an 8.10 ERA in two starts in the big leagues this year.

The Boston Red Sox are easily first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Boston has the second lowest strikeout rate against right handed pitching, and they are second best in isolated power. Biagini has a 6.48 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. Mookie Betts has 6 hits in 11 at bats off him, and two of those hits are homers.

Drew Pomeranz is having some major problems this year. His average fastball velocity is down about 2.5 miles per hour from last year. Pomeranz is giving up much more hard contact this year, and he's pitching from behind in the count more than normal.

Both bullpens have been overworked in recent days. Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire here, and he's one of the best over umpires in baseball. While Sunday is a big under day long term in MLB- the over is 42-17-1 in Meals' last 60 Sunday games behind the plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Twins take on the Angels on Saturday night. Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Twins. Nick Tropeano is on the hill for the Angels. 

Gibson had been terrible through most of his career, but he has improved so far this season. I'm still a bit skeptical that it is a big breakout. Gibson has struggled badly against the Angels in the past and this is a big test for him. The Angels have a .383 weighted on base average as a team against Gibson. Gibson still has control issues, and I think that will catch up to him over time.

Nick Tropeano is coming off the DL to make this start. Tropeano is no better than a league average pitcher even when he is healthy.

In the past two weeks, the Angels are first in the majors in weighted on base average as a team and the Twins are fourth. Both bullpens are worse than the league average as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* Max Scherzer has been at his absolute best so far this year. In 5 of his 8 starts he has 10 strikeouts or more. Scherzer had an amazing swinging strike rate of 15.5% last year, but so far this year it is all the way up to a ridiculous 17.4%. Scherzer has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.75 FIP. He isn't getting lucky, he's simply dominating the opposition.

Matt Koch was hit around in Triple A last year. He's come up to the majors and performed well so far this year, but his advanced statistics suggest regression is on the way. Koch has a 2.13 ERA and a 4.45 FIP. He averaged less than 5 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A in the last two seasons. A pitch to contact guy who is giving up hard contact is a guy I will look to fade, and that's what Koch has been so far this year.

Despite being banged up, Washington is 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Nationals have gotten some great at bats from Matt Adams in recent weeks. Arizona is 23rd in wOBA against right handed pitching so far this season.

A big pitching mismatch here.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves offense is no fluke. Atlanta has young talent at the top of the order, and with veteran reliable hitters like Freeman and Markakis right behind them it has made for a very tough lineup for opposing pitchers to face. Atlanta is third in the majors behind only the Red Sox and the Yankees in weighted on base average (wOBA). The Braves have been at their best offensively on the road.

Dan Straily has allowed a wOBA of .422 to the Braves lineup. Straily is working his way back from his first disabled list stint in the majors. Straily had a terrible 6.92 ERA in three starts in the minors and he has struggled badly in his first two starts in the big leagues as well. He has walked 4 guys in 4 innings in each of his first two starts in the majors. He has a 6.75 in two starts, but his FIP is even worse at just north of 10. In a small sample size these can certainly be skewed, but Straily has struggled a lot this year and now faces a tremendous lineup.

Brandon McCarthy is coming off a terrible outing, but now he faces a Marlins team that is terrible against right handed pitching. Miami has a miserable .266 wOBA against righties. The second worst team in the majors in this statistic is at .281. 

The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL East. They are 4-0 in McCarthy's last 4 starts vs. the NL East. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A combined 20-0 angle.

This is too short of a price for the much better team.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Colorado Rockies have overachieved so far this year. Colorado has had a lot of good luck in the early going. The Rockies are a decent team, but they are being priced here like a team that is a 93 or 94 win team for the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a quality team. Milwaukee's bullpen is second best in the majors with a 2.56 ERA on the year. They rank in the top five of all advanced statistics as well, so it hasn't been luck. Corey Knebel just came off the DL, and he has been dominant in the past couple years. The Brewers bullpen is even better now. 

Colorado ranks 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rockies have crushed lefties, but they have struggled against righties all year. 

Chacin isn't a great pitcher by any means, but he was decent at Coors Field in his time with the Rockies and he is backed by the much better bullpen. I believe the Brewers offense is better than the Rockies too, at least against right handed pitching.

At this big price- I'll take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays haven't had their typical success against lefties so far this year (they are near the middle of the pack against lefties thus far), but with Josh Donaldson back in the lineup I expect them to improve a lot against lefties. 

Seattle is top ten in almost every major offensive category against left handed pitchers. The Mariners have several good right handed platoon guys who have made a career of hitting lefties. 

Wade LeBlanc starts for the Mariners here. LeBlanc has pitched pretty well at home in his career (most of those starts have been in pitcher friendly San Diego and Seattle), but LeBlanc has an ERA of just a tick higher than 6.5 in road starts in his career. He is a below average lefty.

Jaime Garcia isn't the pitcher he once was. He has always been streaky, and he's in really poor form coming into this game. Garcia threw it well in his first start of the year, but since then he hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 in any outing, and he's allowed at least 3 runs in every game. His last two outings have been terrible.

Osuna is out for the Blue Jays which makes their bullpen much worse. The Mariners bullpen has been shaky this year as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any home plate umpire in the last 6 years. It isn't very close either. Eddings has consistently had an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He's arguably the best under umpire in the game, and he's behind home plate here.

Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers Jr. are two young guys with elite stuff. Both of them have been victimized by walks in the past, but their control has been better so far this season. Eddings will help both of these guys when it comes to expanding the strike zone a bit.

The A's are a good offense, but they are better against right handed pitching than lefties. Houston's bullpen is elite and that certainly helps the under a great deal as well.

In 161 AB's vs. Manaea- the Astros have a very poor .267 weighted on base average. In 55 AB's against McCullers, the A's have a .254 weighted on base average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox offense is banged up pretty badly right now. Moncada had just started to heat up when he went down with an injury. Avasail Garcia is also out with an injury. 

In Chicago's last 26 games, they have scored 2 runs or less 13 times. The White Sox are now injury depleted the most they have been all year on offense.

Pittsburgh's offense isn't as good as they have looked early in the year. On the road, Pittsburgh is now down to 20th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA). The White Sox are much weaker on offense at home (26th in wOBA).

Giolito has shown positive signs in his last couple starts, and his potential is very high. Nova has been a pretty solid pitcher the last couple years, and he's backed by a strong bullpen. 

The wind is blowing in for this one and that is key in this stadium.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* The Cleveland Indians have lost three straight games. They could have won 2 of 3 in New York if it weren't for some ugly bullpen collapses. The Indians bullpen isn't the same without Andrew Miller. The big positive for them in this one is ace Corey Kluber starts. Kluber hasn't pitched less than 6 and 2/3 innings in any game this year, and he has pitched 8 full innings or more in three of his seven starts. 

Look for Kluber to go deep into this game and save the Tribe bullpen that has been overworked. It obviously helped for the Tribe to have a day off on Monday as well.

Cleveland is 7-0 on the run line in their last 7 games after a three game losing streak. 

This Indians offense is better than they have shown this year, and they go against a subpar pitcher in Wade Miley. Cleveland hitters have a tremendous .422 wOBA against Miley in 123 plate appearances. 

The pitching mismatch here is great, and I like the Indians to bounce back in this spot.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* I'm not going to try to sell you on the fact that Jordan Zimmermann is a guy I'm excited to back.  It's about the Kansas City Royals being one of the three or four worst teams in baseball. How are the Royals favored by this much? Seeing them at -140 to -145 is extremely strange to me. 

I know the Tigers aren't a good team either, but this feels like a pure tossup game to me. Jason Hammel is near the end of his career, and his velocity dip has led to more hard contact from opposing hitters. As bad as the Tigers bullpen is- they are better than the Kansas City bullpen. The Royals have the worst bullpen in the majors. 

Zimmermann's advanced statistics are quite a bit better so far this year than they have been the last couple seasons. Zimmermann has a great 1.67 ERA in 37 and 2/3 innings against the Royals. Much of that came in the last couple years when he was bad against nearly everyone else.

The Royals are 1-5 in Hammel's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 11-27 in Hammel's last 38 starts overall. The Royals are 2-10 in their last 12 home games vs. a right handed starter.

This is a price grab and a fade of a bad Kansas City team.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies have played well on the road so far this year, and I like them here catching plus money against a slumping New York Mets team. 

The Mets started the season red hot, but they were just embarrassed by Atlanta in their last series. The Mets have had a number of injury problems of late, and their bullpen has been worked heavily in recent games. 

The Rockies have a rest advantage here after having a day off on Thursday. German Marquez starts, and he has been much better on the road than at home in his career thus far. 

Zack Wheeler is a middle of the road starter, and the Mets are 2-7 in his last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 14-40 in their last 54 vs. a team with a winning record. 

According to the advanced metrics, the Rockies offense has been among the most unlucky this season, and the Rockies have a bullpen edge here.

Take Colorado.

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros look to avoid a 3 game losing streak on Thursday afternoon. The defending World Series champs are still a tremendous team, and it will be very rare to see them at this price level on their home field this year.

Masahiro Tanaka's short history against the Astros is about as bad as it could possibly be. Tanaka has a brutal 10.38 ERA in four career starts against Houston. The Astros lineup has an unreal weighted on base average of .510 against him, and they have 7 homers in only 47 at bats. 

Lance McCullers Jr. can be shaky on the road, but he has been amazing at home. McCullers has a 2.33 ERA at home vs. a 4.97 ERA on the road in his career. He is in great form of late. 

The Astros are a perfect 8-0 in McCullers last 8 starts when coming off a quality start. He's a streaky pitcher, and he's throwing it well of late. 

Take Houston here. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year at .373. This offense was pretty good to start the season and after adding in Acuna they are really a force. There is much more depth in this lineup than in most NL lineups, and Freddie Freeman continues to be underrated in the middle of the order.

The Mets have been badly banged up, and their season has turned south quickly in the last few days. Degrom was injured when pitching last night and was going for an MRI to see how bad the news is. They can't afford to have any more major injuries.

The Braves have the pitching edge with Teheran going against Vargas. Vargas' stuff didn't look good at all in his first start back from an injury, and he's going against a very good lineup. Teheran has been money against the Mets in the past. At Citi Field, Teheran has a sparkling 2.39 ERA in 10 starts.

Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Jason Vargas is a mediocre lefty, and he is coming off a fairly major injury. Vargas isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Mets bullpen is worn out right now. 

Julio Teheran has good history against the Mets in Citi Field, but Teheran's advanced statistics this year suggest he has been fortunate thus far. His fastball velocity is down more than 2 mph from last year, and his hard hit rate allowed is up quite a bit. The Braves bullpen is a big problem as well. 

A large reason for this play is the weather. Temperatures in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at 15-20 mph are tremendous for the over. 

In the past 15 years- when the wind is blowing out at least 10 mph at Citi Field- the over is a whopping 116-67 (63.4% overs). If you look at totals of 8.5 or lower only, the over rate goes up to better than 66% during that span.

Two shaky starters and winds howling out on a hot day are a recipe for runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather calls for temperatures in the low 80's and wind blowing out at about 15 mph during this game. That's very favorable conditions for an over.

Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one the best over umpires in baseball. Holbrook has seen 54.5% of his games in his career behind the dish go over the total. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently low compared to the big league average.

Giolito has walked a lot more guys than he has struck out this year. He'll likely have trouble against a Cardinals lineup that is very deep. The White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in baseball as well.

Carlos Martinez is a good pitcher, but he is due for some regression due to his batted ball luck and his strand rate so far this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers start Michael Fulmer here. Fulmer has been superb both during his career in both the first half of the season and at home. Fulmer has a 2.76 ERA in the first half of the year vs. a 4.25 ERA in the second half. He has a 3.19 ERA at home. His WHIP when pitching at home is 1.051 vs. 1.23 on the road. Fulmer has been his very best in day games in his career. Fulmer's career WHIP during day games is 0.989. He gets a below average lineup at home in a day game here.

Blake Snell has been absolutely dealing of late. Snell has walked one batter and struck out 24 in his last three starts combined. Snell has allowed more than 2 runs in only one start this season. That is despite facing Boston twice and the Yankees once already this year. His swinging strike rate was 10.8% last year and it has jumped to 13.8% this year.

This is a get away day game and that should mean some regular guys get the day off. Miguel Cabrera is questionable due to an injury.

The weather calls for a strong breeze from the SW which should serve to slow down fly balls hit toward right field. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday Best Bet* The Chicago White Sox start James Shields here, and I strongly believe Shields is fade material. Shields has lost 3 mph off his fastball in the past four years. He is walking more guys than he is striking out. His hard contact rate is the highest it has been in many years. Shields has an ERA above 6 despite being fortunate on his home run rate compared to his recent averages. I expect a bad season from Shields.

Michael Wacha has thrown the ball much better in his last couple starts. He is getting ahead in the count more and his velocity has improved some. The White Sox are without Avisail Garcia, and this lineup isn't very good against right handed pitching. 

The Cardinals lineup is one of the deepest in the National League, and they should make Shields work. The White Sox bullpen ranks as one of the bottom five in baseball. The Cardinals bullpen is a little better than league average. 

This one is a mismatch in many areas.

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers rank 21st in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Justin Turner is their most consistent hitter against lefties and he's out with an injury.

Ty Blach is a mediocre pitcher on the whole, but his numbers against the Dodgers are tremendous. Dodgers hitters have a .259 weighted on base average against him in 125 plate appearances. Blach has a 1.90 ERA against the Dodgers in 47 and 1/3 innings. In addition, Blach has a 2.57 ERA in day games in his career (it is 5.32 at night).

Kenta Maeda has a 5.20 ERA in day games in his career. Maeda has a poor 4.40 ERA against the Giants in his career. The Dodgers bullpen is overworked of late, and the Giants always get up for this series. 

The Dodgers are a better team than the Giants, but this price is too big considering Blach's success against the Dodgers and their inability to hit lefties with their current lineup.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are excellent. Thus far in the season, Oakland is second in weighted on base average and Houston is 7th. These two lineups are more than capable of putting up big numbers. They have both done it very consistently. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Oakland has scored 8 runs or more in 7 of their last 15 games.

Gerrit Cole has been great so far this year, but you have to expect his numbers to regress some over time. Cole has stranded 92.4% of runners so far this year which can't continue long term. 

Trevor Cahill has only started two games and those were both against subpar offenses. The Astros are one of the best offenses in baseball. I don't trust Cahill, and he's backed by a mediocre bullpen.

Segal is a bit of an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone and if the roof is open the wind is expected to be blowing out in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi has been tremendous so far this year. His deceptive delivery and interesting "churve" pitch have taken the league by storm. Until you have seen him at least once, I think most teams will struggle against him. The Mets are below average against lefties, and Lucchesi is backed by a top five bullpen in the majors as well.

Jason Vargas has historically been a great pitcher in the first half of the season and a terrible second half pitcher. The Padres are bottom five in the league in weighted on base average against lefties.

Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and the under is 209-175 in his career behind home plate. He routinely calls a higher percentage of strikes than the normal home plate umpire. 

Look for a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Nick Pivetta has really impressed me this year. Pivetta was great in the minors and he had a high home run allowed rate last year that ruined his season, but he is getting ahead this year with first pitch strikes and his home run rate is way down. Pivetta isn't walking anyone, and reducing walks is a huge step for a guy that can get this many swinging strikes. Pivetta is still undervalued by the betting markets.

Mike Foltynewicz has been terrible on the road in his career. He has an ERA over 5.5 on the road. His numbers look solid so far this year, but this is a tougher test than he has received in most of his outings. 

The Braves bullpen is a major problem, and Philly has received solid bullpen work this season.

The Braves are 0-7 in Foltynewicz's last 7 road starts. The Phillies are 7-0 in Pivetta's last 7 home starts. The Phillies are 6-0 in Pivetta's last 6 starts vs. the NL East. A 20-0 angle.

Take Philadelphia. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense is much better than they have performed so far this year. They were without some key guys for long stretches earlier this year. Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez are back in the lineup now, and that should help in a big way. Joey Votto has heated up in the last few games, and he's still one of the best hitters in the game. 

Cincinnati's pitching staff is still a major problem. Romano isn't getting many swinging strikes, and he is getting behind in the count too often. 

Minnesota's offense is also better than they have shown this year. The Twins have guys like Sano and Dozier who should perform better than they have to this point. 

Odorizzi has been very fortunate in recent years with his ERA vs his FIP and xFIP, and I don't expect his fortunes to continue to be so good. His batting average on balls in play allowed is only .250 this year and that shows regression should be on the way.

These are two of the worst five bullpens in baseball. 

Tom Woodring is the umpire here and the over is 41-26 in his career behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Kansas City Royals might be the worst team in the American League. Them laying this kind of price is a fade for me. Danny Duffy's velocity is down and his control has been terrible this year. Duffy can't throw his offspeed pitches for strikes this season. 

Even when Duffy has been in good form in previous years, the White Sox have hit him really hard. In 157 plate apperances, the White Sox lineup has a whopping .411 weighted on base average against Duffy. Last year and this year alone, Duffy has a 8.10 ERA in five starts against the White Sox.

The Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball as well, so things don't get any better after Duffy comes out- they get worse. 

Chicago's lineup isn't great, but it is better than Kansas City's. 

I'll take the plus money price.

Take the White Sox. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox here. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Danny Duffy has an 8.10 ERA in his last five starts against the White Sox. Duffy's control has been terrible this year, and his getting behind batters is making his home runs allowed rate even worse. He's a fly ball pitcher and with the wind blowing out that should hurt him.

Reynaldo Lopez has had a lot of trouble throwing strikes too. It hasn't hurt him so far very much, but in the long run when you aren't getting that high of a strikeout rate and you are getting behind a lot of people, it should hurt. 

The Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball, and the White Sox rank in the bottom 8 of baseball in relief pitching in almost every advanced statistic. 

Look for both teams to have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* What have the Baltimore Orioles done to be any kind of a favorite here? What has Chris Tillman done that would encourage anyone to want to back him? 

Chris Tillman could go out and dominate here (you never know in one game) and totally change the look of things, but there is absolutely nothing in his work last year or this year that would suggest that will happen. Tillman was awful last year, and he has been even worse so far this season. Tillman had a 7.84 ERA and a 6.93 FIP last year. He has a 9.87 ERA and a 8.09 FIP this year. Tillman has walked more batters than he has struck out, and he is giving up a ton of hard contact. 

Detroit's offense ranks eighth in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. The Orioles offense ranks second to last (only Miami is worse) in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

The Orioles have significant injury issues. Schoop, Rasmus, Beckham, and Trumbo are all out of the lineup. Britton isn't at the back end of the bullpen either.

Mike Fiers hasn't been great, and he can be hit hard at times, but his numbers are night and day better than Tillman's.

This line makes no sense to me.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* Matt Koch hasn't been any good in the minors of late, and I don't see any reason to expect him to do well in the majors. Koch had a brutal 8.40 ERA in 10 starts in Triple A last year. His FIP was 6.92- so it wasn't about bad luck as it was just getting hit hard. 

Koch had a good first start against the light hitting Padres at home, but now he must go on the road and take on a much improved Phillies lineup. Led by Carlos Santana, the Phillies have walked much more this year and their patience at the plate should pay off against Koch.

Ben Lively isn't a great pitcher, but he is improving steadily. Lively is allowing less than 30% hard contact on batted balls this year. His swinging strike rate is up as well. 

This is primarily a fade of Koch, but I think the Phillies are still a solid value as the market tries to adjust to the Phillies no longer being a bottom feeder.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on A's ML* I realize Kendall Graveman has been terrible so far this year. He might get hit around again here, but even if we give the Rangers the advantage at starting pitcher, the massive difference in the Oakland lineup and the Texas lineup right now is too big to ignore given this price.

Oakland has arguably the most improved offense in the NBA. The A's depth is tremendous- the bottom of the order guys are just as tough to get out as the guys at the top.

Texas' pitching is going to have a really tough season. The Rangers offense can usually make up for those issues, but they aren't as good this year. Now, they are badly banged up. Andrus and Odor are out, and Adrian Beltre got injured in their game on Tuesday and is doubtful. The bottom of this Rangers order is extremely weak.

This isn't a move to back Graveman, but rather a selection to fade Texas at this price. I think the market is still too high on Texas. 

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Baltimore Orioles are banged up in a big way right now. They are without Mark Trumbo, Colby Rasmus, Johnathan Schoop, and now they are likely to be without Tim Beckham as well.

Tampa Bay isn't a strong offense by far, but they have been much better than the Orioles offense so far this year. 

Baltimore's .266 on base percentage against right handed pitching is worst in the majors. The Orioles bottom of the order is about as weak as you'll see from anyone.

Alex Cobb had no spring training this year and it has thrown him off. Jake Faria has allowed 1 run or less in 3 of his 4 starts this year. 

At a plus money price- I'll take the Rays against the struggling and badly injured Orioles.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres aren't a particularly good team, but the price is too high here given all the data points we have on this one.

Jon Gray has been a terrible favorite to this point in his career. The Rockies are 8-17 in Gray's 25 career starts as a moneyline favorite of -185 or lower. If you bet $100 on the Rockies in each of Gray's 25 career starts in that price range- you'd be down more than $1,100 already.

Divisional underdogs in the first half of the season have been extremely profitable in the long run. In fact, by taking divisional underdogs of +130 or higher the ROI is above 10% without any other filters in the past ten years. That's a huge sample size. On the road the number is even better.

Gray's worst month of the year is the first month by a huge margin. His 7.17 ERA in the first month in his career is terrible.

Tyson Ross has more movement on the slider this year than he has had in any other year. Ross has been good at Coors Field in the past, and he's backed by a tremendous bullpen.

Too high of a price on this underdog.

Take San Diego. 

*4 Star Play on Oakland A's ML* The Texas Rangers were going to be way down this year before injury trouble hit them, but with the injuries added in I expect this to be a really rough season for the Rangers. Their starting pitching is awful. The lineup isn't as good as it was in past years- and now they are without Andrus and Odor. 

Cole Hamels was an ace in the past, but he is no longer a true ace. Hamels used to allow hard hit rates that were extremely low (in the 26 or 27% range). Last year the percentage of balls hit hard against Hamels jumped to 36%. This year the rate is an extreme 42.5% thus far. Hamels is a mediocre pitcher now. 

The A's lineup has a tremendous .411 OBP and a .442 weighted on base average against Hamels- and that came when Hamels was better than he is now. Oakland has a really deep lineup and I expect their offense to continue to be very good. 

Triggs is a decent starter for the A's and in 31 plate appearances against him, Rangers hitters have only two hits. That's a small sample size so I didn't read much into it, but Triggs has a deceptive delivery that can take some getting accustomed to.

This price is too cheap for the healthier and better team.

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland A's ML* The Boston Red Sox are in a tough spot here. They are in their sixth straight game on the left coast, and they up against an Oakland A's team that has been great in this spot in the past.

Oakland isn't good on the road, but at home against teams from the Eastern time zone- the A's have been fabulous in recent years. It makes sense to me- teams come to the west coast who aren't accustomed to coming there and then play some poor baseball. 

Here's a powerful example of that. The A's are a whopping 64-29 in their last 93 home games against a team with a winning record that is also from the eastern time zone. The ROI on this angle is 35% since 2012. 

Mengden is a quality pitcher and the A's lineup is much better than most realize. The Red Sox are a very good team, but they are definitely due for some regression to the mean overall. Yes, they are coming off being no hit, but I'll go the contrarian way here and take the underdog in this contest. 

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto is healthy this year and he is in the middle of a nice comeback season. I don't think he's the same pitcher he was a few years ago, but he isn't as bad as his numbers from last year suggest either. 

Barria is a highly touted prospect for the Angels who has shown good control in the minor leagues. The Giants lineup is a weak one to start with, and they will be without Pence and might be without Buster Posey again here as well.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he has the highest strikes called percentage in the majors in the last five years. He's a big help to the under.

Sunday has been the best under day in the majors overall by a wide margin in the long term, and with a key number of 9 here, I like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here, and he's a guy who looks like a new pitcher this year. Pivetta was hurt by a very high HR rate allowed last year, but his minor league numbers were terrific. He appears to be breaking out. Pivetta hasn't just been lucky this year. His advanced statistics all look terrific. 

Trevor Williams has turned into a solid starter for the Pirates, and his ability to keep the ball down with his downward movement on his pitches has been key.

Williams has a career ERA in day games of only 2.62 (4.90 at night). Pivetta has a day ERA of 3.32 (7.02 at night). 

The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 Sunday starts. The under is 3-0-2 in the Phillies last 5 home games. The under is 3-0-1 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0-3 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 27-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals lineup is extremely deep. With guys like Bader and DeJong hitting at the bottom of the order, this is the kind of lineup that is going to intimidate a lot of pitchers this season.

Homer Bailey has some awful numbers against the Cardinals in his career. How bad? Bailey has a 5.75 ERA in 24 starts against the Cardinals in his career. He has a 6.00 career ERA when pitching at St. Louis. The current Cardinals lineup owns a ridiculously high .463 weighted on base average against Bailey. That is in a pretty large sample size of 162 plate appearances. 

The Reds are in terrible shape right now. Cincinnati has the worst bullpen in the majors right now, so if Bailey exits early again here it doesn't bode well for the Reds.

Carlos Martinez has been solid so far this year, and the Cardinals bullpen gives them a huge advantage in relief pitching against the Reds.

The Reds have already lost 16 games this year, and 12 of them have been by 2 runs or more. The Cardinals have defeated the Reds by 2 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 meetings with the Reds. 

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night. The Reds start Brandon Finnegan here, and Finnegan hasn't shown any positive signs so far this year.

The Cardinals crushed him last week in Cincinnati. Finnegan walked 4 in just 4 and 1/3 innings in that game. Finnegan couldn't throw strikes in his minor league rehab assignment in Triple A either. Finnegan threw only 53 of 98 pitches for a strike in that game. 

The Cardinals haven't only crushed Finnegan in one game. St. Louis' lineup has an amazing .473 weighted on base average against Finnegan in 82 plate appearances. They have hit 7 home runs and walked 13 times.

The Cardinals are a perfect 11-0 in Michael Wacha's last 11 starts against the Reds. 

Cincinnati made a managerial change on Thursday. The Reds will play better than they have so far this year (they can't play worse) on the whole, but this is a tough matchup for them. The Cardinals have beaten them 9 of the last 10. Six of their nine wins during that time have come by at least three runs, so they have dominated the Reds. 

The Reds have lost 15 games this year and 11 of those losses have been by two runs or more.

Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has started the season on fire, but I don't expect them to be able to keep it up. Several guys in this lineup are hitting far above their career highs, and I expect regression to the mean. The Pirates will come back to the pack. 

Jameson Taillon is a guy I'm very high on though. Taillon has always been a guy with great control all the way up through the minors and in his time in the bigs so far. Taillon is excellent at inducing weak contact as well, which can minimize damage nicely in most situations.

Jake Arrieta obviously has a high upside as well. He hasn't been great so far this year, but he is very capable. 

The weather is a big factor here. Temperatures around 40 degrees with wind blowing in about 15 mph make the under a nice value in my opinion. These early season unders with the wind blowing in on cold days have been great to bettors in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night at Chase Field. This is no longer one of the best hitters parks in the majors. The humidor put in place here has significantly slowed down the scoring here. It will take some time for bettors to get accustomed to Chase Field not being a great hitters park.

Robbie Ray has had bad career numbers at Chase Field, but that was before the humidor. He faces a light hitting Giants team today, and the Giants are likely to be without Evan Longoria. 

Jake Lamb is out for Arizona and he is a key bat in the middle of the lineup. Chris Stratton has pitched really well, and he has been a highly rated prospect in the past. He seems to be coming into his own.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and Cuzzi has seen 55.1% of games in his career behind the plate stay under the total. His strikes called percentage are always among the top 10 umpires in the league.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is still underrated. The depth of this offense is much better than it has been in recent season. Oakland has Stephen Piscotty and Johnathan Lucroy batting eighth and ninth in the order, which shows you how deep this lineup truly is right now. 

Oakland has scored at least 8 runs by themselves in four of their last six games. The A's are rolling offensively, and now they face a young righty in Carson Fulmer who walks a bunch of people. That makes him prone to the big inning. Fulmer has a lot of potential, but he's likely to struggle this year. 

Triggs has been pretty good for the A's so far this year, but I see him as about a league average pitcher. The White Sox offense isn't great, but they are good enough to create some scoring chances.

Both bullpens are bad. I see both as bottom 10 in baseball when it comes to bullpens. There should be scoring chances late.

Mark Wegner is a great over umpire and he's behind the dish here. His strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently make him one of the best over umpires in the business.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is far better this year than it has been in recent years. From top to bottom, this is a lineup that doesn't really have any weaknesses. Oakland ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average. The A's have been really high scoring this year, and their pitching staff isn't very good either. In Oakland's 16 games this year, in 7 of them one team has scored at least 7 runs. 

The White Sox have been inconsistent on offense this year. They do have a lot of quality hitters who are bound to improve in the coming weeks. Guys like Moncada, Davidson, and Abreu are better hitters than they have shown so far this year.

Miguel Gonzalez has lost 2 mph off his fastball, and his swinging strike rate is at a career low of 6.6%. His hard hit allowed rate is also at a career high.

Trevor Cahill walks far too many batters, and he isn't likely to get very deep into the game. The A's middle relief is a weakness.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The price here is too much for me to pass up. Junior Guerra is a far below average right handed starter, and the Brewers are badly banged up. The Brewers are without Yelich, Pina, and Knebel. Both Ryan Braun and Eric Thames are questionable here.

The Reds are a bad team, but that is more than priced into this one. The Reds are also coming off a win. Taking underdogs inside the division who are off a big win has been a really strong system over the years. The Reds offense is better than they have shown in the early going, and they have torched Guerra in their limited sample size against him.

The public is all over the Brewers here. Taking an underdog receiving less than 30% of the bets and coming off a win, and also playing a team with a .500 or worse record is +11.7% ROI in the last 15 years in Major League Baseball. The Reds fit that system today. 

Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night. Andrew Cashner takes on Francisco Liriano. With the way these two guys are pitching at this stage in their careers, this total is too low. 

Cashner has managed to get outs in some really strange ways the last couple years. Cashner had a 3.40 ERA last year, but his FIP and xFIP were 4.61 and 5.30. He got very lucky. In two starts this year, he has a 2.50 ERA with a 5.67 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP. His swinging strike rate is so low that he is reliant on batters hitting it at fielders, and I don't expect that to continue at the rate it has.

Speaking of swinging strike rates- Francisco Liriano routinely had swinging strike rates of 13.5% or better for several years, but it dropped all the way to 9.6% last year. So far this year it is only 6.8%. Liriano has always had control problems, so not being able to strike out nearly as many is a big problem for him.

The Orioles offense is bad in general, but they are 12th in wOBA against lefties. The Tigers offense isn't as bad as they have looked so far this year.

The wind here is blowing out about 15 mph, and Comerica is a park where wind blowing out has made a huge difference in the past.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Houston Astros played on Sunday night baseball last night at home, and they definitely got in very late to Seattle. Houston is in a difficult spot here. 

Seattle played a day game at home yesterday, so they are much more rested than Houston in this spot. 

Dallas Keuchel is an elite pitcher at home. On the road, Keuchel is only mediocre. In his career, he has a 2.93 ERA at home and a 4.45 ERA on the road. His WHIP is only 1.13 at home and it is 1.371 on the road. Dallas Keuchel's teams are 19-21 when he starts on the road as a moneyline favorite in his career.

James Paxton has high level stuff and he is capable of shutting down any lineup. The Astros lineup hasn't been very consistent in the early going this year. 

We've seen reverse line movement early on this underdog, and I think that makes sense. 

The Astros are 1-4 in Keuchel's last 5 road starts. The Mariners are 6-2 in Paxton's last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* Early money went against the Rockies here, and I'll fade this move. Nolan Arenado isn't playing here due to suspension, and I assume that is why the line has gone the way it has. Arenado is a good player, but the Rockies have plenty of other guys on this roster who are quality players. This is an overreaction. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a team I'll look to go against when I can in the coming weeks. They aren't as good as their 11-4 record would indicate. The Pirates will come back to the pack, but for now the betting markets are high on Pittsburgh.

Colorado is good against lefties. They ranked 3rd in wOBA against lefties last year, and they have been much better against lefties than righties this year again. Brault is a youngster with potential, but his advanced stats suggest he has been fairly lucky so far this season.

German Marquez has good stuff, and he is backed by a very underrated Rockies bullpen.

I think this is a 50/50 game, and the odds aren't suggesting that.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw on Sunday afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are off to a slow start to the season, and this is a big game for them against a hot Arizona team. I don't have to tell you how dominant Clayton Kershaw has been over the years, and his numbers against the Diamondbacks are very good.

Zack Godley has turned into a really nice pitcher for Arizona. He has a 0.64 ERA and an impressive 1.55 FIP through two starts. He throws hard and has good movement on multiple pitches. 

The under is 4-0 in Godley's last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 during game 3 of a series. The under is 6-0 in Kershaw's last 6 starts on six days of rest. A combined 14-0 angle. 

The Diamondbacks weren't very good against lefties last year, and the Dodgers offense has struggled without Justin Turner. 

Expect a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Tampa Bay has scored 2 runs or less six times already this year. The Rays lack any reliable hitter to contribute in the middle of the order. 

The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been good so far this year, but they haven't exactly faced tremendous pitching staffs thus far. While I think the Phillies offense is pretty good, I think their numbers are overvalued offensively right now.

In Velasquez and Faria we have two young pitchers with a lot of talent. Velasquez had a terrible outing against the Braves in his first start, but a closer look there shows it was some terrible luck. Braves hitters had a batting average on balls in play of .643 (around .300 is average) in that one. Velasquez has a 5.19 ERA, but his FIP is 1.78. 

Faria was crushed by the Red Sox in his last outing, and both of his starts so far this year have been against Boston. The Red Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball, and they'll make a lot of pitchers look bad this year. 

The under is 25-9 in the Rays last 34 home games. The under is 4-1 in Faria's last 5 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios broke out in a big way with a great season last year, and his stuff is elite. Berrios has held White Sox hitters to a .132 batting average in 68 at bats. He has tremendous strikeout stuff. Berrios has a 3.29 ERA through two games this season, but his FIP is only 2.27 and his SIERA is 2.71. He's pitched well.

Lucas Giolito has loads of potential. His consistency hasn't been very good yet, but I think he could experience a big breakout season this year like Berrios did a year ago. He has good command of several pitches, and there is lots of movement on all of his pitches.

The weather is a big factor here. The temperature will be in the low 40's with wind blowing in at 8-10 mph. In the past 10 years, in the first month of the season in MLB with winds blowing in at 7 mph or greater and a temperature of 59 degrees or colder the under is hitting 63% of the time. This game fits that system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The Boston Red Sox start Rick Porcello here, and I'm not high on him. His numbers through two starts look pretty good, but most people's numbers would look good if both of their starts were against the Tampa Bay Rays offense. Porcello is just a middle of the road pitcher, and he's up against a solid Yankees offense.

Sonny Gray's swinging strike rate hit a new high last year, and through two games it is above 13% this year. That's a great sign, and when Gray is in a rhythm he can really mow down a lineup. Gray has a 3.60 ERA on the year, but his FIP is only 2.10. 

The Yankees clearly have the better bullpen here. The Red Sox are without Pedroia and Boegarts, and those are two big losses. 

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play on St. Louis Cardinals* The St. Louis Cardinals have gotten off to a bit of a slow start, but this is a team with a very good lineup. The Cardinals have Michael Wacha on the mound for this one. Wacha has been shaky so far this year, but his long term results against the Reds are tremendous. He has better numbers against Cincinnati than any other team in baseball.

The Cardinals are 11-1 in Wacha's last 12 starts against the Reds. Wacha has a 2.85 ERA in 88 and 1/3 innings against the Reds. In Cincinnati, Wacha has a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings. 

Sal Romano pitches for the Reds here, and he is a below average big league pitcher at this point in his career. He has more walks than strikeouts so far this year, and he doesn't have any single great out pitch.

The Cardinals are a better team than the Reds, and this is a discounted price.

Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star Play on Angels ML* Getting this kind of price on the Angels against Matt Moore was unexpected. Matt Moore had a 5.52 ERA last year and that was with a home park of AT&T Park in San Francisco. Wow. Moore now moves to Texas to pitch in a very hitter-friendly park. I don't think this is going to go well at all.

More than half of batted balls against Moore so far this year have been classified as hard hit by fangraphs. The league average is less than 33%. Moore isn't fooling anyone. His velocity is the lowest of his career thus far as well.

This Angels lineup is looking very good in the early going, and the Angels have a big bullpen advantage here.

Barria is a pretty highly rated prospect for the Angels and his command of multiple pitches is solid.

This is primarily a fade of Matt Moore, but I'm also low on the Rangers in general.

Take the Angels. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rays are having a "Bullpen Day" and starting Chirinos here. The Rays bullpen doesn't have very good depth, and that should show itself over time. On the other side, the White Sox start James Shields who I consider one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Shields velocity is down 3 mph from a few years ago, and he isn't getting any swinging strikes or strikeouts. Even a poor offense like the Rays should be able to get to him. The White Sox bullpen isn't good either.

The wind is blowing out and it is a much milder temperature today in Chicago as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* I don't like to make a habit of fading the Houston Astros, but this price has me on the Twins. Lance McCullers is a completely different pitcher on the road. 

McCullers has a 2.42 ERA at home in his career. He has a 4.92 ERA on the road. His WHIP at home is only 1.194 compared to 1.462 on the road. He'll be up against a quality lineup in the Twins on Wednesday afternoon.

Kyle Gibson isn't the reason I'm making this pick. He's a guy who can either be awesome or just awful. The Twins have given him great run support though, and Gibson has held the Astros lineup to a batting average below .200. 

The Twins are 11-1 in Gibson's last 12 starts. McCullers is mediocre or worse on the road and is laying a huge price.

Houston has remarked multiple times in the press the last two days about hating this cold weather and wanting to get back home.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Diamondbacks ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks were undervalued coming into the season. Patrick Corbin is a guy I expect to be a lot better than he was last year. He has decided to start using his slider (his best pitch), far more often. This is the type of thing Lance McCullers Jr. did with his curveball. Less of setting things up with a quick fastball or two, and more of just throwing the nasty slider. I like this change from Corbin.

Tyler Beede makes his MLB debut here. Beede had a 4.79 ERA and a 5.02 FIP in Triple A last year. Those aren't the kind of numbers that usually bring success in the big leagues. He does have some upside, but I will be surprised if he dominates right from the start.

The Giants are 5-21 in their last 26 games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. Corbin is undervalued here.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are going to be one of the worst offenses in baseball this year. Miami has scored 2 runs or less in four of their last five games. The Marlins have hit lefties pretty well so far this year, but they have been dreadful (.203 average) against right handed pitching.

Jacob Degrom is a very solid right handed pitcher. Degrom has pitched much better in the first half of the season in his career than the second half. Degrom's jump in swinging strike rate in the past year suggests to me that he is pointing toward even better things ahead.

Caleb Smith has good strikeout stuff, but he has struggled with walks. The Mets have a lineup that should be better against right handed pitching than lefties this year, and Smith is a lefty.

DJ Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a good under umpire. In Reyburn's career, the under is 118-92 in his games behind the dish. He'll help both pitchers on the corners.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Atlanta Braves ML* I can't pass up this price on the Braves. Atlanta's lineup has impressed me so far this year. They were shutdown by Max Scherzer last night. Though Stephen Strasburg is very good, he hasn't proven to be on a Scherzer type level yet in his career. 

Strasburg has some pretty bad numbers against Atlanta in his career as well. Strasburg has a career 4.06 ERA in 24 starts against the Braves. The Nationals are only 3-8 in Strasburg's last 11 home starts against Atlanta. Freddie Freeman has absolutely ripped Strasburg in a large sample size.

Mike Foltynewicz has potential. He isn't consistent, and there is definitely a chance he gets torched here, but that is far more than factored into the price.

Divisional underdogs early in the season have been strong bets in the past 15 years. Though the Braves deserve to be a decent sized dog here, this is too much.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Monday CASH* The Baltimore Orioles start Dylan Bundy here. Bundy was superb early in the season last year. He is also much better at home than on the road. Bundy has a nice 1.129 WHIP at home, but an ugly 1.429 WHIP on the road. Bundy has a remarkable 1.48 ERA in March/April in his career.

Bundy has also been great against Toronto in his career thus far. He has thrown 23 and 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays and allowed only 2 runs. That's a 0.76 ERA. 

J.A. Happ has a 1.393 WHIP in the first half of the season vs. a 1.271 WHIP in the second half of the year. Happ is a guy that isn't likely to be able to match his numbers from a couple years ago anymore.

The Orioles aren't a great team by any means, but they have been much better on their home field than on the road under Showalter in recent seasons. 

The Orioles are 6-2 in Bundy's last 8 home starts. A solid price on the Orioles with their best starter going at home here.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets have won the first two in this series. Here is a line that is inflated due to the "they can't sweep them" theory that most bettors have. There is not data that suggests paying up in game three of a series is a wise move in a spot like this.

This line has jumped quickly from the opening, and this is too much for me to pass up. The Nationals deserve to be favored here, but not by this amount.

Matt Harvey still has a high upside and the Nationals lineup definitely misses Daniel Murphy. 

A price grab here.

Take the Mets. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets here in a divisional rivalry. The home plate umpire for this game is Mark Ripperger and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors. His strike zone will benefit the pitchers quite a bit through this contest.

The weather is a huge factor. With temperatures dropping in the low 40's during the game, and winds of 10-12 mph blowing in, this is a great spot for an under.

There is a strong weather angle that this game fits: In the first 20 games of the season when the temperature is 58 degrees or lower and the wind is blowing in at least 8 mph and the total is 7.5 or higher- the under is a whopping 120-64 (65.2%).

Both bullpens are good and I think this is a good price on the under given the umpire draw and the weather.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Indians lineup isn't producing right now. They'll be much better over the course of the season, but the conditions in Cleveland right now aren't helping at all. The temperature is expected to be about 30 degrees at time of first pitch here and the wind blowing in at 10 mph. 

The first two games in this series have had similar weather, and those games were 3-2 and 1-0. 

Mike Clevinger has been an underrated piece for the Indians. The Royals lineup will be one of the worst in the majors this year.

The under is 45-22-3 in the Indians last 72 games vs. an AL Central foe. The under is 20-7-1 in Clevinger's last 28 starts.

Ted Barrett is behind the plate and he is a bit of an under umpire as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Rick Porcello isn't a guy I trust at all right now. Porcello is admittedly facing a very weak Tampa Bay lineup, but that is more than factored into this line. Porcello is a rare pitcher who has done quite a bit better on the road than at home in his career. Last year, he had a 5.43 ERA in 19 starts at Fenway Park. His WHIP was 1.34 in those starts. 

Jake Faria threw 13 innings against Boston last year and allowed a total of two runs. Faria had a 3.43 ERA in his rookie season last year. Faria has a nice upside, and I see him as the better of the two starting pitchers here.

This will be a contrarian play and I'm ok with that. The Rays have started slowly and the Red Sox have started fast. 

The Red Sox will win a game like this more than half the time, but at these odds I have to take a chance with the Rays. I think this one should be priced around +125 or +130. That's too much of a difference to pass up.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets early Saturday afternoon in a game that will be played in conditions that clearly favor the under. The wind will be blowing in about 12 mph during this game and the temperature will be in the low 40's. In past years, wind in during cold games has been a great moneymaker early in the season. It has started out the same way this year.

Steven Matz has allowed zero runs in 15 innings pitched in Washington. Matz is coming off a bad start, but I do believe he is at least a decent starter, and these conditions should help. Matz has a great 3.10 ERA in the first half of the season during his career.

Gio Gonzalez has a career 3.47 ERA in the first half. Gonzalez has a great 2.93 ERA against the Mets in 23 starts. 

Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and in his career behind home plate, the under is hitting at a 54.3% clip. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I see Luis Perdomo as a solid sinker-baller who can keep the ball in the park and induce a lot of double play balls. Perdomo fell victim to some terrible luck in his first outing. He allowed a batting average on balls in play of .583. After the game his ERA sits at 11.25 with his FIP at only 2.46. 

Lance McCullers Jr. is an elite pitcher when pitching at home. In his career when pitching at home, McCullers has a ridiculous 2.39 ERA. His ERA is 3.09 overall in the first half of the season in his career as well.

The Astros bullpen is top three or four in the majors. I see the Padres bullpen as better than league average.

I think this one is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* Tyler Anderson starts for the Rockies here. Anderson has been awful early in the season during his career. How bad? Anderson has a whopping 9.09 ERA in 32 and 2/3 innings in March/April during his career. He has a WHIP of 1.745 during that time as well.

Anderson has been much better at Coors Field than on the road, which makes little sense, but the splits are drastic. Anderson has a 3.39 ERA at Coors Field and a terribly 5.72 ERA on the road in his career.

Joey Luchessi starts for San Diego here. Luchessi is a young lefty who uses a deceptive delivery to make it tough for hitters to get comfortable against him. I think he can be a solid pitcher for this Padres team.

The Rockies are 0-4 in Anderson's last 4 road starts. I'll take the home team here.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Over* The weather should be a big factor here. Temperatures are chilly, but the wind is howling out to center field. Winds of 20 mph at a minimum are expected to be going all through the contest.

The Twins offense is very solid from top to bottom. I don't see any big weaknesses here. Minnesota should score a lot of runs this year.

Pittsburgh should get a better season out of Polanco this year, and they have some decent young hitters in this lineup.

Ivan Nova and Jake Odorizzi are both pitchers I rate as lower than the league average. Nova is a pitch to contact guy, and Odorizzi  has given up a ton of home runs in the last couple years. 

Both of these bullpens are league average or slightly below on the whole. There should be scoring chances late here as well.

At this low number with the weather- I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians are definitely still one of the top teams in the majors. Anytime I can get one of the top teams in the majors at a big plus price when they are not going against an elite pitcher I have to give it a long look. Garrett Richards has shown promise in his career, but he hasn't shown consistency. The market has priced this one as if a top of the line starter is going for the Angels here.

The Indians are 22-8 in their last 30 vs. the Angels. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games in Los Angeles. The Indians have a big bullpen edge here.

Josh Tomlin isn't a great pitcher, but he has given his team a chance to win over the last few years. 

The Indians are 37-18 in their last 55 road games.

I'll take the underdog here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox were 9th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties last year. They weren't any good against right handed pitching, but the White Sox were underrated against lefties in the marketplace last year.

Miguel Gonzalez has been an average big league pitcher during his career and for several years he has been slightly above average. That's better than many perceive him as being. Gonzalez has allowed this Blue Jays lineup to hit only .179 against him in 87 plate appearances. 

The Blue Jays have potential, but they aren't a top 5 team in the big leagues like they are priced here. They are overpriced at this level.

The oddsmakers suggest that the White Sox will win less than 37% of the time in this spot. That's too low.

A pure price play.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Arizona Diamondbacks have a strong lineup against left handed pitching. They are patient at the plate against lefties and they have some impressive power hitters against left handed pitching.

Arizona is 14-5 in their last 19 vs. a left handed starter. They are 20-6 in their last 26 home games vs. a lefty. 

Hyun Jin Ryu is 1-10 in his last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 4-11 in his last 15 road starts.

Taijuan Walker still has upside potential thanks to his high level stuff. Justin Turner's absence hurts the Dodgers lineup quite a bit, especially since he has been their most consistent bat in high leverage situations.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* Ian Kennedy had a 6.46 ERA at home last year. Kennedy is definitely on the decline overall, and his numbers against the White Sox have been bad in recent years. The White Sox scored 17 earned runs in 20 innings against Kennedy last year.

Kennedy has been a slow starter throughout his career. His first half ERA is 4.34 in his career. In the second half, he has a solid 3.75 ERA. 

Lucas Giolito was the White Sox best pitcher in Spring Training. Giolito is still a guy who was really highly touted and has multiple plus pitches. At the end of last year, he appeared to be on the right track.

The Royals might have the worst bullpen in baseball. Kansas City is also without star catcher Salvador Perez.

The White Sox lineup is improved, and I think they should be a clear favorite here. 

Take the Chicago White Sox.

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* I believe the Phillies are a better team than the Braves. Early in the season, underdogs have had a great amount of value. That value has been even larger in early games between divisional foes.

Vince Velasquez has plenty of ability. Velasquez is healthier starting this season than he was last year. He has good swing and miss stuff, and the Braves are a team who will strike out quite a bit this year.

Brandon McCarthy isn't a bad pitcher, but I think he'll likely slip a bit from last year's numbers. He's backed by a poor bullpen here as well.

The Phillies lineup is better from top to bottom, and I'll take the plus money price here.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros on Friday night. While this is a hitter's ballpark overall, this park plays a lot different with cooler weather and wind blowing in.

The under is a whopping 54-26-7 in the last 87 games in Texas' home games with a temperature of 83 degrees or cooler and wind blowing in from center field. It is expected to be 64 degrees with wind blowing in during this game.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and by record he has been the single best under umpire in the bigs in the last few years. In his career, the under is 57.3% in Kulpa's games behind the plate.

Keuchel is healthy and set for a great year for the Astros. Fister had a decent season last year for the Red Sox and should be helped by Kulpa being behind the dish.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* Nick Pivetta's overall profile looks like a pitcher who should get some positive regression this year. He certainly isn't anything tremendous, but neither is Mike Foltynewicz. 

The Phillies made themselves quite a bit better in the offseason. Carlos Santana's ability to get on base should really help this lineup. 

Freddie Freeman is a great hitter in the middle of the Braves order, but the rest of the lineup around him isn't very good. The Phillies have a more balanced lineup.

While they didn't show it in game one, I think this Phillies bullpen is a little better than the Braves bullpen. 

In the early going- underdogs have significant value based on all the long-term trends. Here's a dog who I think would win this game at least 50% of the time.

Take the Phillies. 

*3 Star MLB Opening Day Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw here. Kershaw is amazing against everyone, but he's at his absolute best against the Giants. 

Kershaw has a ridiculous 1.60 ERA in 41 games against the Giants. That's 297 and 1/3 innings of domination. I don't see any reason to believe Kershaw will be any less dominant here. Backing Kershaw is a top five bullpen for the Dodgers.

Ty Blach has been great against NL West teams. Blach has allowed only a .286 weighted on base average (wOBA) against the Dodgers. The Dodgers offense is without Justin Turner due to injury, and that's a huge loss in the middle of the order.

The under is 11-1 in Blach's last 12 games against an NL West foe. The under is 23-7-2 in Kershaw's last 32 games started against the Giants.

Take the under. 

*3 Star World Series Game 5 Totals MONEY* The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound here. Kershaw was great in game one and I expect another terrific effort from him. Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball for years now and I like his chances to prove himself in a huge game here. Kershaw has held Houston hitters to a .255 wOBA in his career. 

Dallas Keuchel is a different pitcher at home. His ERA at home in his career 2.94. Batters are hitting only .227 against him at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is my single favorite under umpire in the bigs. Miller loves to call strikes, and his strike three calls often get batters upset. He is a pitcher's best friend, and we have two tremendous pitchers who can paint the corners here.

The under is 42-29 in Keuchel's home starts in his career. The under is 74-57 in Kershaw's road starts. The under is a whopping 30-8 in Kershaw's 38 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB World Series Game 3 CASH* The Houston Astros picked up a really nice win in LA in Game Two. They were able to get to Kenley Jansen and the Dodgers bullpen. Still, this Dodgers bullpen has been the best bullpen in baseball all year. The Dodgers still have a big advantage in the bullpen.

Yu Darvish has been amazing in his last few starts. Darvish has been great against this Astros lineup in his career too. In 157 at bats, the Astros have a .197 average and a .250 weighted on base average against Darvish. 

Lance McCullers has great stuff too, but I don't understand him being this big of a favorite here. The DH rule doesn't help the Astros as it normally would help an American League team. The Dodgers have all kinds of depth in their lineup.

The Dodgers are 77-35 in their last 112 games. Getting this quality of a team at this big of an underdog price is too much to pass.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on the Dodgers* Yu Darvish has been throwing the ball really well of late. Darvish has allowed a grand total of 3 runs in his last four starts. He has 2 walks and 28 strikeouts during that time. Darvish changes speeds as good as anyone in the game. 

The Cubs strike out at the 11th highest rate of any team in baseball. Darvish has elite swing and miss stuff. I think he is a tough matchup for this Cubs lineup.

Kyle Hendricks throws a lot of changeups, and his fastball doesn't have much velocity. Hendricks faces a Dodgers lineup that hits changeups very well. This Dodgers lineup is deep even without Seager. I see Hendricks having to try to work out of jams pretty often here. 

The Dodgers bullpen is the best in the NL by a wide margin. The Cubs bullpen is overworked and they aren't very good to begin with.

I'll grab the plus money price here.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star MLB Astros/Yankees Moneyline CASH* The Houston Astros are 54-29 on the road this year. Houston knows how to win away from home. 

Houston's lineup is stacked. Let's take a look at the Astros offensive numbers on the road this year. Houston as a team has a .351 OBP, and the second best team is at .336. The Astros are striking out at a rate of only 17.9%, which is the lowest in the majors.

C.C. Sabathia is a mediocre pitcher at this stage of his career. I waited this line move out because the public clearly wants to take the Yankees, but I have to grab this price now on the underdog. Sabathia isn't likely to get through this Astros lineup without quite a few problems. 

In the past ten years, taking teams that are getting less than 50% of the public bets in the game and are underdogs of +101 to +133 in the postseason against a team with a win percentage of 50% to 62% is an impressive 95-68 for an ROI of 27%.

A price play here. 

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Yankees/Indians Game 5 CASH* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber is coming off a bad start, but before that start he was on a run that no pitcher could match all season. Kluber has been extremely dominant this year. I'm not going to let one start ruin my opinion of him. Kluber had a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate during the season. He allowed less than 1 home run per nine innings. 

Kluber has a great history against the Yankees overall even with this last start being a bad one. The Yankees lineup has combined to hit .184 against him. 

C.C. Sabathia has been pretty good this year. I'm also encouraged by the fact that Sonny Gray could pitch in long relief here, and all of the Yankees bullpen arms are well rested. 

Both teams will use their bullpens at the first signs of trouble here, and these are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's a large reason for this bet. 

The wind will be blowing in from right field here and the temperature will be cool. The conditions favor the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Monday Late Night MONEY* The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet at Chase Field on Monday night. Arizona has to win this one to stay alive. They'll start their ace Zack Greinke here. 

Greinke was amazing at home all year. He had a 2.87 ERA and allowed a batting average of only .207 at home this season. He didn't pitch well in his last couple starts, but he has decent numbers against the Dodgers, and I see him pitching well with his back against the wall in this spot.

Yu Darvish has been great down the stretch this year, and in 63 plate appearances the DBacks hitters have a miserable .190 average against him. That's a small sample size, but Darvish has great stuff and is well rested.

Chase Field's roof status isn't yet available. If it is open here, the wind will be blowing in 15 mph. Expect both teams to use their best relievers in this spot, which certainly helps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cleveland Indians ML* This wasn't a game I expected to pick, but this line is out of control. How can the Yankees be -161 here? 

Luis Severino is a very good pitcher, but he's still a youngster that has to prove he can perform under the bright lights in the playoffs. This is an excellent Indians lineup he has to face.

Trevor Bauer pitched great in game one, and down the stretch of the season he has been very consistently good. I expect the Indians bullpen to be all available here, and the Yankees have a bit of a question mark with Chapman since he threw so many pitches yesterday. 

I think New York should be favored here, but this price is too high to pass on.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros had the top offense in baseball all year long. This Houston offense is the real deal. Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, and the rest of the bunch are so good. 

I certainly don't trust Doug Fister to get this Astros lineup out on a consistent basis. Fister has below average stuff and I think there's a good chance he won't get very deep into this one.

The Boston Red Sox offense has been better at home. Boston faces Brad Peacock here. He was good this year, but he is inconsistent. He is relatively wild, and Boston should make him work.

A big key here is the weather. Winds of 15 mph blowing out to center field and left field are expected here. That brings this system into play: on a total of 9.5 or lower with wind blowing out at 5 mph or greater and a temperature of 50 degrees or warmer the over is 81-50 (62% overs) in the last ten years in the postseason.

I think both teams get a lot of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Playoff Totals SMASHER* The Cleveland Indians host the New York Yankees in what should be a really exciting series. The temperature will be fairly moderate in this one and the wind will be blowing in at about 5 mph from left field. 

Vic Carapazza is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. He rates as one of the top five under umpires in the majors in my umpire ratings. He will both help pitchers in this one.

Trevor Bauer really pitched well this year. He has a 3.88 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. Bauer has only allowed 2 homers against this Yankees lineup in 160 plate appearances. He has allowed a solid .305 wOBA. 

Sonny Gray has great numbers against the Indians lineup. In 196 plate appearances, the Indians have a very low .273 wOBA against him. Gray has great stuff and I think he'll pitch well here.

These are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's very important in the playoffs. Both managers will be quicker to use their top relievers more often and stretch them out.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Super System* Blake Snell has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 7 games. Kevin Gausman is coming off a bad start, but he has been very good overall in the last couple months. I expect both teams to have some key bats out of the lineup or pulled during the game here. 

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Brault is a young prospect for the Pirates who has pitched well in a small sample size. He's a guy with a high upside, and the Pirates are really high on him.

Gio Gonzalez has been very good this year. Gonzalez has given up a lot of soft contact, and he's been good at getting out of jams with ground balls or strikeouts.

The final game of the regular season has been a big under day in the past. How big? Since 2008, the under is 51-25 (67.1%) when the posted total is 8 runs or higher.

The under is 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 Sunday games. The under is 6-0-2 in the Pirates last 8 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0-1 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Washington. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The final day of the regular season has been a great day to play unders in the past several years. It makes sense to me. Players are ready to go home after a long season. That is especially true for bad teams. These are two really bad teams with zero to play for in this one. 

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. 

This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

*4 Star MLB 100% System Play SMASHER*

Luis Perdomo has a 3.55 ERA against the Giants in his career. Johnny Cueto has held the Padres lineup to a miserable .184 batting average. Cueto is at his best in day games, and he faces a very weak lineup in this one.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have a key bat missing in Olson (injury) and Adrian Beltre is expected to be out for the Rangers. Mengden has pitched better late in the season. Cole Hamels is generally at his best in the last month of the year.

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I had to wait for the lineups and the umpire here, but when all that information came out, it confirmed my initial lean.

Tampa Bay is sitting out Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, and Lucas Duda here. The Orioles are without both Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo. There are some very questionable hitters in both of these lineups.

The home plate umpire here is Vic Carrapazza. He is one of the best under umpires in the league. He'll help both of these guys who typically struggle with walks.

Unders do very well in the last weekend of the MLB regular season. Teams under .500 against each other are 60% to the under in the last ten years when the total is 9 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Braves take on the New York Mets here. Sean Newcomb takes the mound for the Braves. Newcomb is a guy with a fairly high upside, and the Mets have struggled of late against lefties. It's no surprise, since the Mets are without almost all of their best hitters from the start of the year.

This game fits a late season totals (under) trend. Both teams are out of the playoff contention and we'll see a lot of new faces in the lineup here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Toronto* The Toronto Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series. Toronto is definitely playing hard to the finish, and the Red Sox have far more pressure on them.

The key to this one for me is Toronto starting Marco Estrada. Estrada was awful early in the year, but he has turned things around nicely of late. Estrada has allowed 5 runs in his last four starts combined. Estrada also has a great track record against Boston. This Red Sox lineup has a miserable .162 average against him in a huge sample size of 202 at bats.

Rick Porcello has been mediocre or worse this year. The Red Sox are 4-12 in Porcello's last 16 starts vs. the AL East. The Red Sox are 2-5 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chase Field is a great place for hitters with the roof open. In the past ten years, the over is 56% at Chase Field when the roof is open and the total is 9.5 or lower. That number is above 60% in the past two years alone.

Matt Moore and Robbie Ray are two lefties who give up a bunch of hard contact. Moore has a 6.51 ERA on the road this year, and he's facing a DBacks team that should have all its regulars back for Tuesday's contest. This team has some tremendous power hitters against lefties. Moore has allowed 26 homers this year.

Robbie Ray is certainly a good pitcher, but his home/road splits are very interesting. Ray has a 4.37 ERA at home this year vs. a road ERA of 1.79. Last year, he had a 5.36 ERA at home. He struggles at Chase Field more often than not.

At a good price on a key number, I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles are going to miss the playoffs this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are out of the playoffs as well. 

I ran some extensive queries on the last week of the regular season in baseball and found that two teams who are out of the playoff race usually equates to value on the under in the last few games of the season.

From game 156 of the season (162 game season), the under is hitting 61.2% in the last ten years when both teams have won 50% of their games or less and the total is at least 7 runs. This one fits that angle.

Williams has pitched great at home all season. He is good at keeping the ball in the yard with his sinker, and the Orioles rely on homers quite a bit. 

The Pirates offense is a mess right now, and Kevin Gausman has been very good late in the season.

The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague road games. The under is 8-0 in Williams last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-0 angle.

Take the under.