*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* I will look to fade Homer Bailey until he shows me something different. Bailey isn't good anymore, and he's dreadful when pitching at Great American Ballpark. His ERA in his last 17 starts at Great American Ballpark is a ridiculous 7.61. The Cardinals have given Bailey major problems in the past. This Cardinals lineup has a tremendous .462 weighted on base average against him. Bailey's ERA in his career against St. Louis is 5.71. In his last 8 starts against them, his ERA is just above 8.

Austin Gomber is a lefty with deceptive stuff. The Cardinals are an organization that does a very good job developing young pitchers. Gomber has consistently had high swinging strike rates in the minors. 

The Reds are 4-18 in Bailey's last 22 home starts. The Reds are 6-19 in Bailey's last 25 starts against the Cardinals.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* Lucas Giolito's stats look better on the surface of late, but if you take a deeper dive you'll see he's just getting fortunate with batted balls in play. Giolito has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .158, .154, and .100 in the three games he has pitched well in lately (2, 1, and 0 runs allowed). On the season, Giolito has a 6.18 ERA and a 6.14 FIP and 6.21 xFIP. He's  been one of the worst starters in the majors. 

The Angels offense has struggled badly against lefties (27th in majors in wOBA), but they are solid against right handed pitching (7th in majors in wOBA). 

Jaime Barria is due for regression. Barria has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.84 FIP. Barria has stranded 83.3% of runners on the season which isn't something he can keep up long term. His exit velocity allowed is 89.9 mph, so hitters are hitting the ball very hard against him. 

These two bullpens both rank in the bottom 8 in the past month, so I expect late scoring chances as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cleveland Indians are playing with confidence right now. If you are a contender, and you see your front office go out and make a big trade that makes you better right away, you have to be highly motivated. This bullpen got much better when Hand and Cimber came over in the deal with the Padres.

Texas has been pretty good against lefties this year, but they are 22nd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rangers also strikeout at the fourth highest rate of any team in baseball against right handed pitching. 

Mike Clevinger has solid swing and miss stuff. His swinging strike rate is an impressive 11.5%. Clevinger has improved his control this season, and he has been very consistent overall. Clevinger has a FIP of 3.16 or lower in 6 of his last 7 outings. That tells me it isn't just good luck, but Clevinger is pitching very well.

Yovani Gallardo is near the end of his career, and he isn't a guy I trust going against this red hot Indians offense. Cleveland ranks in the top five in offense against right handed pitching, and they are in top five overall in the past month. 

Gallardo has pitched worse in day games than night games in his career. Clevinger has been much better in day games than night games, and Clevinger's numbers on the road are quite a bit better than his numbers at home.

The Indians are 61-20 in their last 81 vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is slumping right now and Cleveland is playing well. I see that continuing on Sunday.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Dylan Covey has a brutal 8.92 ERA on the road in his career. Covey has been terrible in his last few starts. He hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 5 games and he has allowed 4 runs or more in each of those starts. He has walked 15 batters and has only 10 strikeouts during that span. Covey comes into this one in really bad form. 

Felix Hernandez is far from the pitcher he once was. Hernandez is allowing more hard hit balls than he has in any other season in his career. He is coming off the DL and pitchers often aren't sharp in that first game back. 

There have been at least 11 runs scored total in Covey's last four starts. The White Sox bullpen has a 6.62 ERA in the past 30 days, so they are unlikely to provide much relief here. 

Covey could give up a big number here, and Hernandez is shaky at this point as well. There is value on the over in this contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The Colorado Rockies are 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also good against lefties (8th), but they'll go against right hander today, and Arizona is 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

German Marquez has a brilliant 0.98 WHIP and a 2.62 ERA in 9 starts on the road this year. Marquez has only allowed 5.6% of batted balls against him to be barreled, so he's doing a good job limiting the hard contact. 

Robbie Ray can strike out a bunch of people, but his walk rate is more than 5 per nine innings, and he's giving up a ton of hard contact. Ray has allowed more than 45% of batted balls to be hard hit and 10.5% of batted balls to be barreled. Ray has allowed a whopping .454 weighted on base average against this Rockies lineup in his career.

The Diamondbacks are 9-23 in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The DBacks are 2-6 in Ray's last 8 starts vs. the Rockies.

Too big of a price on the underdog here.

Take Colorado.

*3 Star Play on Indians ML* The Cleveland Indians start Trevor Bauer here, and he's been fantastic this year. Bauer has allowed 2 runs or less in 13 of his 19 starts this year. He has struck out at least 8 batters in his last nine contests. He has 11 strikeouts or more in 6 of those 9 outings. Bauer's swinging strike rate has gone from 9.2% last year to 13.2% this season. He's having a breakout season to say the least.

Masahiro Tanaka has only made one start since coming off the DL, and he didn't look good in that start against the lowly Orioles. Tanaka has some bad history against this Indians lineup as well. The Indians have a weighted on base average of .402 against Tanaka. Tanaka has a worse WHIP in day games in his career, and he has had a home run problem in day games as well.

This game means more to the Indians than the Yankees in my opinion. Cleveland is fired up for this series, and they want this game to split the 4 game set. 

The Yankees are without Gleybar Torres and Gary Sanchez. In the past month, the Indians have an OBP 12 points higher than the Yankees.

The Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. The Indians 63-29 in their last 92 home games.

Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star Play on Twins ML* Chris Archer hasn't been quite right all year. He clearly still has potential, but he hasn't been healthy and his mechanics have been a bit off. Archer has allowed 40.6% of batted balls to be hard hit this year. He is walking a few more guys, and getting a bit less swinging strikes and strikeouts as well.

Jose Berrios has been tremendous at home. Berrios had a 2.41 ERA at home last year. He has a 2.49 ERA at home this year. Berrios has a spectacular 0.802 WHIP at home so far this season. Not surprisingly, the Twins are 18-3 in Berrios' last 21 home starts. 

The Rays offense is decent against lefties, but they aren't very good against right handed pitching. Tampa Bay is 5-15 in their last 20 road games. The Rays are also 3-13 in their last 16 road games against a right handed starter.

Berrios has dominated at home, and this is a short enough price to lay it with the home team.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Baltimore Orioles are playing like they are quitting on the season already. This is the last series before the break, and I would be surprised if they show a lot of fight this weekend. The Rangers aren't a good team, but they have clearly still been playing hard. 

Cole Hamels is coming off an awful outing. Hamels didn't even get through the first inning. Hamels' swinging strike rate and most of his advanced metrics suggest he is throwing the ball better this year than last season. He's a proud veteran and I would think he could bounce back against one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Alex Cobb is having a dreadful season. His ERA is above 6 on the season. According to Baseball Savant, Cobb is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers this year in hard hit percentage allowed. Batters are crushing the ball off of him. 

The Rangers bullpen ranks 5th in the majors in the past month, and they have a lot of youngsters throwing it well. The Orioles bullpen is a mess without O'Day and Bleier. 

The Orioles are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-5 in Cobb's last 5 home starts. 

Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Blake Snell is having an incredible season. To say that he's had a breakout campaign is an understatement. Snell has started 19 games this year, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in 16 of those 19 starts. He's allowed one run or fewer in 12 of his 19 starts. 

According to Baseball Savant, Snell ranks in the top five in the majors in hard hit percentage allowed (allowing the least hard hit batted balls). Snell is getting a ridiculous 13.7% swinging strike rate so far this year as well. It's rare to find pitchers with this combination of strikeout stuff and soft contact inducing stuff. 

The Twins are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Minnesota's bullpen has been shakier of late, and now they are without Addison Reed, who has done a great job for them in late innings.

Kyle Gibson is a mediocre pitcher and he's tailed off a bit of late.

The Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. They are 4-0 in Snell's last 4 starts. A 17-0 angle.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels haven't been able to hit left handed pitching all year. The Angels are 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Angels are 10-25 in their last 35 games against a left handed starter.

The Angels face one of the best lefties in the majors in James Paxton tonight. Paxton feels he was slighted in not being named to the All Star team, and I like backing a guy who is pitching to prove a point. Paxton also has positive regression signs with his ERA vs. FIP and SIERA. 

The Mariners are 10th in weighted on base average against lefties. Seattle has Nelson Cruz in the middle of the lineup, and he crushes left handed pitching. Tyler Skaggs starts for the Angels here and this is his first game back from the DL. I like to fade guys in their first game back.

The Angels hitters have a .190 average against Paxton in his career. The Mariners hitters have a great .386 weighted on base average against Skaggs in his career.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been good in the last couple months, but they are much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 4th in weighted on base average at .332 against righties, but they are 15th against lefties at .313. 

The Padres offense is bad against all pitching, but they are especially bad against right handed pitching. San Diego is dead last in the majors with a weighted on base average of just .287 against righties. 

Joey Lucchesi had one bad start after coming back from the DL, but since then he has been pretty sharp. Lucchesi has a deceptive delivery and hitters have had a hard time sizing him up.

Kenta Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts combined. Maeda excels at forcing hitters into weak contact.

Ben May has turned into an excellent under umpire. He has called 64.75% of pitches a strike so far this year. He called 65.17% of pitches a strike last year. The average is right around 63.50%. May is a strike caller.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners* Marco Gonzales has had a breakout season this year. Gonzales is getting hitters to swing at more pitches outside the zone, and that's led to a lot less walks. He's also doing a better job minimizing hard contact.

The Angels rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Angels have Mike Trout and a couple other nice pieces, but this isn't a particularly deep lineup.

Jaime Barria ranks in the bottom 10% of starting pitchers in exit velocity allowed. Batters are hitting it hard off him, and he's been fortunate they have found the glove so often. That isn't likely to continue.

The Mariners have a clear bullpen edge here as well.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Under* Vince Velasquez has pitched significantly better away from Philadelphia. Velasquez is prone to allowing home runs, and Citizens Bank Park has hurt him because of that. Velasquez has a 6.16 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs at home this year. He has a 2.79 ERA and has allowed 2 homers on the road. Citi Field is definitely a pitcher friendly park.

Jacob Degrom has been amazing this year. Degrom has always been very good, but his number are tremendous this year. Degrom has racked up a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate so far this year. On 252 batted balls off Degrom, only 10 balls have been barreled, a great 3.6% rate. Degrom is a rare combination of strikeout pitcher and soft contact inducing pitcher. Degrom has a 0.90 WHIP at home this year.

Both of these offenses have been struggling of late. Dan Bellino is the home plate umpire and the under is 12-1 in his 13 games behind the dish this year. The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts vs. an NL East team. An 18-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies* The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets both send first time starters to the mound tonight. Drew Gagnon gets the ball for the Mets, and Enyel De Los Santos starts for the Phillies.

Gagnon has been in the minors for a long time and is 28 years old. Gagnon has never had all that much success in the minors either. In all of his years in Triple A his ERA's have been: 6.93, 5.56, 6.25, and 4.67. This year he has had the 4.67 ERA, but his FIP if 5.10. Gagnon doesn't have elite stuff.

De Los Santos is one of the Phillies top pitching prospects. He has a 1.89 ERA in Triple A this year. De Los Santos has a great fastball and a very good changeup.

The Mets are without Cespedes, Frazier, Bruce, and Lagares. This lineup is very weakened by injury. The Mets bullpen also ranks in the bottom five in the majors.

The Phillies are pretty healthy for this point of the season, and they have a top 10 bullpen. 

The Mets are 9-25 in their last 34 home games. 

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics rank second in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Oakland has a much deeper lineup than an average team. The A's have a nice mix of power hitters and contact hitters. 

The Houston Astros offense ranks in the top five in the majors. In the last month, they have been great. 

Frankie Montas is striking out less than 6 batters per nine innings. He's also giving up a ton of hard contact. In fact, 49.4% of batted balls have been labeled as hard hit against Montas this year. His home run rate is too low and should regress to the mean. He hasn't been fooling people of late.

Gerrit Cole started the season pitching extremely well. He's been mediocre of late. Cole allowed 3 runs or more in only one of his first eight starts. In his last 10 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or more on 6 occasions. His exit velocity he's allowed is moving up, and his walk rate is much higher in recent outings.

The over is 7-0 in the A's last 7 vs. an AL West team. The over is 6-0 in Montas' last 6 starts. The over is 7-0 in the Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Cole's last 5 starts at home. A 25-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants start Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. Bumgarner started out a bit slowly after he came back from his long DL stint at the start of the season, but he has been much better of late. Bumgarner has allowed 3 runs in his last 21 innings combined. 

Jack Flaherty has been terrific this year. Flaherty has a swinging strike rate of 12.7%, which shows he's fooling a lot of hitters. Flaherty throws 93 and 94 mph on the fastball, but he has very good movement on that pitch. He does a nice job limiting hard contact as well. 

Both of these offense rate in the mediocre category when you look at the advanced data. 

Sunday has been easily the best under day in baseball in the long run, and we have a solid under umpire here in Brian O'Nora. His strikeout/walk ratio is easily over 3 this year. The under is 12-3-1 in O'Nora's last 16 Sunday games behind home plate.

Both teams have some nice under trends. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 last starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 when the Giants are coming off a loss. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Saturday MLB Play of the Day* The San Francisco Giants start Jeff Samardzija here. Samardzija was terrible before going on the DL, and he was bad in Triple A in his rehab starts as well. Samardzija had a 6.56 ERA with a 5.85 FIP in the majors earlier this year in eight starts. He had a 5.29 ERA with a 6.31 FIP in Triple A in his 4 rehab starts. 

Samardzija has been a huge day/night splits guy in his career as well. In day games in his career he has a 4.67 ERA (3.81 at night). He has struggled with walks in day games in the past. This is a difficult spot for him to come back in a day game against a pretty good offense.

Carlos Martinez was shaky when first coming back from the DL, but he's been excellent in his last two starts. Martinez has better pure stuff than Samardzija, and he has held this Giants lineup to a miserable .163 average in 85 at bats. 

Buster Posey is likely to get either Saturday or Sunday off, so we might get the benefit of a top hitter being out for the Giants.

I'll fade Samardzija here in his first game back from the DL.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies are playing good baseball right now. Philadelphia's bullpen has been a big surprise this year, and both of their best guys in the bullpen should be available for this game. Dominguez has been dominant for this team, and the Phillies actually have the 9th best SIERA of any bullpen in baseball. The Pirates are 12th. 

Jake Arrieta continues to do a good job forcing soft contact. Only 28% of batted balls against Arrieta this year have been hit hard. Arrieta isn't as dominant as he was a couple years ago, but he is still a pretty good starter.

Jameson Taillon has been a little shaky of late. His command hasn't been what it normally is. The Pirates have allowed a whopping 48 runs in their last 4 games. They lost 17-5 last night. While many often think a team would bounce back, I ran a query on this and teams who won by 7 or more in the previous game have done very well in the next game (especially when they are an underdog).

The Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a righty. They are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The Phillies are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle.

Take the Phillies.  

*4 Star Play Under* Mike Foltynewicz and Freddy Peralta have both been spectacular this year. Foltynewicz has broken out in a big way this year. He's always been a guy that was expected to be very good, but he hasn't proven it until this year. Foltynewicz has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 11 starts. That's tremendous consistency from the Braves right hander. He does a good job at limiting hard contact, and his swinging strike rate is higher this year than at any other time in his career. 

Freddy Peralta is a youngster who has been dominant so far this year. Peralta has a ridiculous strikeout rate of 13.01 strikeouts per nine innings. He has an amazing 14.1% swinging strike rate. Peralta has allowed no runs in 3 of his 5 starts so far this year. The Braves have been elite against lefties so far this year, but they have been mediocre against righties. 

The under is a whopping 20-5-1 in the Brewers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 85-40-5 in the Brewers last 130 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts vs. Milwaukee.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been tremendous all year. Degrom is getting an amazing 15.5% swinging strikes this year. That's among the best in the majors. Add in that hitters are only making hard contact 29.2% of the time on batted balls off Degrom and you have an elite pitcher. 

The Tampa Bay offense is one of the worst in the majors, and they'll be minus a hitter here. The Rays have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Tampa Bay is worse against right handed pitching, and Degrom is one of the best in the majors.

New York's offense hasn't been good either. Ryne Stanek is the opening pitcher for the Rays here, and this opening pitcher strategy has worked great for the Rays. Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA is the best in baseball since they started this new method. 

The weather here is a big help with winds blowing in at about 13-15 mph. Citi Field is a pitcher's park to start with, and winds do make a big difference here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Diamondbacks rank 27th in weighted on base average in the majors so far this year against right handed pitching. Arizona has a weak bottom of the order and that has hurt them quite a bit this year.

While St. Louis has been decent against right handed pitching, the Cardinals rank 21st in weighted on base average against lefties this year. 

Miles Mikolas is only walking 1.13 batters per nine innings this year. Minimizing walks to that degree can really help in limiting damage. Mikolas has also gotten a lot of softly hit fly balls. 

Patrick Corbin has been great this year. Corbin has 1 walk and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. Corbin is using his slider much more this year, and it is a great pitch. In 8 of his 17 starts so far this year, Corbin has allowed 1 run or less. 

Tony Randazzo has been striking guys out at a really high rate this year behind the plate, and he should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Colorado has bounced back in the last few games, and it has been largely because they have gotten a lot more length out of their starting pitchers and their bullpen isn't so gassed. Colorado has a couple good bullpen arms in Ottovino (excellent) and Davis. Both of those guys are well rested for this game and that is important. 

Tyler Anderson has thrown the ball well of late, and his career ERA at Coors Field is better than his ERA on the road. Anderson is good at creating soft contact, and that helps a lot here. 

Andrew Suarez has pitched into some bad luck this year, but he's a solid youngster as well. Suarez is pitching his best in recent games, and if his batting average on balls in play regresses to the mean, his ERA should drop in the long run as well.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is definitely one of the best under umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently one of the highest in the majors. The weather calls for winds blowing in from center field at about 10 mph here also.

The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 against a lefty. The under is 3-0-1 in Suarez's last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angels have sustained a multitude of injuries. It's no wonder the Angels have dropped back to 43-42 and well behind the Mariners and the Astros. The starting rotation and the bullpen have been crushed by injuries and Zack Cozart is a key piece missing from the lineup.

Wade LeBlanc continues to be underrated at home. His skillset matches this large park in Seattle very well. LeBlanc is a soft tosser who limits hard contact. In Seattle, he gets a lot of fly ball outs. In another park, the fact that he pitches to contact and there are a lot of fly balls coming off opponents bats would be a bad thing, but here it works to his favor. 

Andrew Heaney is a decent lefty for the Angels, but Seattle is excellent against lefties with Cruz in the middle of the order being a big reason why.

The Mariners have a big advantage when it comes to bullpens in this one as well.

The Angels are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a left handed starter. They are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a 60% win percentage or higher. They are 0-4 in Heaney's last 4 when pitching on 5 days of rest. They are 0-5 in Heaney's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is a perfect 12-0 in LeBlanc's last 12 home starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 42-0 angle.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* Brian Johnson has been a pretty good fill in starter for Boston. Johnson being a lefty is a benefit going against this Nationals team. While Washington is very good against right handed pitching, the Nationals are 22nd in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year.

Boston's offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Tanner Roark is having the worst season of his career. His xFIP and SIERA are the highest they have ever been. He's not doing as good of a job getting soft contact, and he's having trouble locating his offspeed pitches.

Boston has been a great interleague team, and the AL has been money against the NL in the past decade.

The Red Sox are 7-0 in Johnson's last 7 starts. They are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a left handed starter. They are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts. They are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 23-0 angle. 

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* There's too much line value for me to pass this one up. It isn't the easiest bet to make because the Cardinals are playing so poorly of late, but I think there is a lot of recency bias in this number. 

The Cardinals and DBacks are very similar teams on the whole. Robbie Ray has been terrible at home during his career. Ray has a 5.05 career ERA at home (it is 3.22 on the road). Ray has a 1.52 WHIP at home and a WHIP of only 1.21 on the road.

Ray is a high strikeout guy who also has very poor control. The Cardinals are in the top ten at drawing walks off left handed pitchers. They should work deep into the count against Ray. 

Carlos Martinez looked great in his last start. Martinez was masterful against a good Indians offense in his last outing. The DBacks rank 27th in weighted on base average in the majors against right handed pitching. 

The Cardinals have one of the lowest batting averages on balls in play against lefties. That should regress to the mean. Almost 50% of balls against Robbie Ray have been classified as hard hit by Baseball Savant. 

This is a tossup game to me, and Vegas is implying odds of between 41% and 42% chance of winning on the Cardinals. I'll grab the big underdog here.

Take the Cardinals. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching at a miserable level of .286. The Pirates rank 23rd in the same category. Pittsburgh has hit lefties well, but right handed pitching has been a problem for them. 

Jameson Taillon is a very solid pitcher who limits the free passes he gives up. Taillon has a 2.87 ERA in 17 career day games.

Tyson Ross has a career ERA of 2.91 at Petco Park. This is one of the best parks in the majors for pitchers. 

The Padres bullpen ranks 10th best in the majors for the season in SIERA and the Pirates rank 10th best. These are two very good bullpens. 

Sunday is the best under day by a wide margin in the majors overall in the past 15 years. These afternoon games to finish off a series can lead to some key hitters getting the day off. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* I don't like to make a habit of going against these Yankees. New York is a really good team with very few weaknesses. The price is too good to pass up going against them here though. 

Chris Sale is the best lefty in baseball right now. Sale's statistics are the best they have been in his career, and he's had some amazing years already. Sale is getting 15.6% swinging strikes which is amazing. He's getting more soft contact this year by a wide margin, and his pitching from ahead in the count on a regular basis. Sale has allowed 1 run or less in 8 starts already this year. He has 2 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last two outings.

Sonny Gray is the biggest weakness in this Yankees rotation right now. Gray has been subpar everywhere, but he's been awful at home. Gray has an ugly 6.23 ERA in 13 career starts at Yankee Stadium. His WHIP is 1.57 in those games.

Chris Sale has a tremendous 1.73 career ERA against the Yankees. 

The Red Sox are the best offense in the majors against right handed pitching, and they face a struggling righty here. Sale is locked in and is laying a much lower price than normal.

Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. Colorado is only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitchers. The Rockies go against lefty Rich Hill in this one.

Hill has struggled so far this season. He has gone less than six innings and allowed 3 runs or more in 5 of his 7 starts. He has already allowed 11 barreled hits in 97 batted balls, and he allowed just 10 of those in 240 batted balls two years ago. Batters are hitting the ball very hard against him.

Tyler Anderson has allowed a very high .427 wOBA against the Dodgers in his career. Justin Turner has 10 hits in 18 at bats against him. Anderson has a 4.62 ERA and a 4.70 FIP so far this year. The Rockies bullpen has a ridiculous 7.90 ERA in the last month. 

The Dodgers bullpen is worn out. They have thrown the third most innings of any bullpen in the past month. 

Both teams hit lefties well and both lefties are vulnerable here. This is a low posted total given all these factors.

The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 Friday games. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Hill's last 4 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox are 54-27 on the season and have the best record in the majors. It is extremely rare to see them as this short of a home favorite, and I'm backing them in this spot.

The Angels are extremely banged up. They are without Cozart, Ohtani, and several key guys in the bullpen. They are a .500 team. 

The early money has steamed the Angels, so I'll take the discounted price on the Red Sox.

Brian Johnson is certainly not a star pitcher by any means, but the Angels are 19th in weighted on base average against lefties.

Jamie Barria is due for regression, and he now faces the best offense in the majors against right handed pitchers and it is on the road. It's a tough spot for the youngster. 

The Red Sox have a big offensive advantage and a significant bullpen edge as well.

The Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a lefty. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. Boston is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 starts. The Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Boston. A 21-0 angle.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Yankees have been on amazing under run of late. The under is 19-2 in the Yankees last 21 games. In a long season like the MLB season, you'll often find some trends like this that can continue for quite some time. I try not to fight those trends any more than I have to.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for Wednesday night's contest between the Yankees and the Phillies, and Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in the majors. There's no other guy you'd want behind the plate for an under.

Cessa is a middle of the road pitcher, but the Phillies offense is inconsistent. Cessa is backed by the best bullpen in the majors.

Eflin has his swinging strike rate up to 10.1% this year. He's throwing harder and getting much softer contact. Only 28.2% of batted balls against him have been classified as hard hit. 

The under is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 interleague games. The under is 6-0 in Cessa's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 25-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Ross Stripling has quickly turned into a terrific pitcher. A deep dive into his numbers shows a guy who is no fluke. Stripling is allowing only 25.7% of batted balls to be hit hard. He is also striking out 10.58 batters per nine innings. He is walking only 1.37 per nine innings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts so far this year. 

Jon Lester has allowed the Dodgers lineup to hit only .198 in his career. Lester has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts. 

The Dodgers and Cubs both have solid bullpens. 

Bill Miller is a tremendous under umpire. His strike zone is big to start with, and it expands with two strikes on the batter. That should be a big help to both of these pitchers who are good at nibbling at the corners.

The under is 19-5-2 in Stripling's last 26 starts. The under is 22-8 in the Cubs last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Washington Nationals on Monday night. This is a difficult spot for the Nationals. Washington hosted the Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball. That game was delayed by rain and then finished a little after 12:30 am EST.

Washington will get a lot less rest than Tampa Bay here. The Rays were home against the Yankees in their last series. The Nationals are already very banged up to start with, and this is a spot where we could see a key player or two sit out for Washington because of the tough spot.

Blake Snell has been the better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez this year. Snell has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 13 of his 16 starts so far this year. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in a home start all season.

The Rays have the lowest batting average on balls in play in high leverage spots in the majors, so they are due for some positive regression on offense. Tampa Bay is much better against lefties than righties.

Tampa Bay is 10-2 in Snell's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets offense has been dreadful of late. The Mets had one good series offensively in Colorado, but outside of that they have been really bad. 

The Mets rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average at home (.279). That's easily worst in the majors. Brandon Nimmo has been the team's most consistent hitter, and he will likely miss this game after getting injured on Sunday. Cespedes continues to be out. Jay Bruce and Juan Lagares are out as well.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have crushed lefties this year, but they are worse than the average big league team against right handed pitching. 

Jameson Taillon has been great on the road, and his advanced stats show he's thrown it better than his ERA would suggest. He's due for some positive regression.

Seth Lugo has been nearly unhittable at home so far this year. Lugo's higher velocity combined with his excellent curveball make him a guy who should continue to have success. 

The wind is blowing in here at about 10 mph at Citi Field for this one. This is a park that has a great under record with the wind blowing in. 

The under is 4-0 in Lugo's last 4 home starts. The under is 5-0 in Taillon's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East.  A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees were swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. New York is one of the best teams in baseball, and I expect them to get back on track quickly. The Yankees bullpen is arguably the best in baseball, and despite playing an extra innings game this bullpen hasn't been used up too badly of late. The Yankees bullpen has an amazing 1.19 ERA in the last 30 days.

Vince Velasquez has a major home run problem. Velasquez allowed 2.35 homers per nine innings when pitching at home last year. He's allowing 2.16 homers per nine innings at home this year. This is a hitter-friendly park, and Velasquez is giving up a lot of hard contact and fly balls. The Yankees are definitely not the team you want to face when that has been a problem for you.

Jonathan Loaisiga is an interesting youngster for the Yankees. Through the minors he was known for elite control. He was routinely allowing only one walk per nine innings or so. He also has a high swinging strike rate and a high strikeouts per nine innings ratio. The Phillies strikeout at the highest percentage of any team in the majors.

Philadelphia had to play late Sunday night, so the Yankees would have gotten to town earlier than the Phillies. 

The Phillies are 3-13 in Velasquez's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 36-15 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are expected to be without Lorenzo Cain and likely Ryan Braun for this series finale. The Cardinals are still without Paul DeJong as well.

Jhoulys Chacin has a 2.31 ERA at home so far this year. Chacin has had some drastic home/road splits the last few years. Chacin is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Brewers should have Josh Hader and Corey Knebel available for this one. 

Luke Weaver is due for some positive regression. Weaver has elite stuff and his advanced metrics suggest he is better than his ERA would make you think.

With this being a Sunday afternoon game- don't be surprised if even a healthy key bat or two is missing from the lineup here.

The under is 38-16-2 in Mike Winters' last 56 Sunday games behind the dish. Winters is a bit of an under umpire in general, and Sunday has been the best under day in MLB overall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* Francisco Liriano is coming off an injury, and he didn't pitch well in his lone rehab start at Triple A. Liriano has been crushed by this Indians lineup. Cleveland's hitters have an impressive .372 weighted on base average against Liriano in his career. Liriano isn't far from the end of his career, and his stuff isn't nearly as good as it was a few years ago.

Trevor Bauer is having a breakout season. Bauer has always had potential, and he was selected in the first round (pick #3) in the MLB draft in 2011. Now, he is showing why he was so highly thought of in the past. Bauer is throwing first pitch strikes more than he ever has, and when he gets ahead he has a devastating slider to put batters away with. 

Bauer's swinging strike rate has always been in the 9% range, but this year it has jumped to a whopping 13.1%. Another big key here is Bauer has been throwing deep into the game. He has gone 6 and 2/3 innings or more in 10 starts already this year. The Indians bullpen is extremely well rested here as well.

Detroit is 25th in wOBA (weighted on base average) against righties. The Indians are 2nd in wOBA at home.

A mismatch here.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Atlanta Braves ML* Significant money has come in on the Baltimore Orioles here, and I have to fade that early line move. 

The Baltimore Orioles have been a mess all year. Dylan Bundy starts here, and there is no doubt he has a high upside, but he isn't consistent. The Orioles bullpen has the worst xFIP in the majors, and they are certainly a bottom five bullpen. Baltimore's offense ranks third worst in the majors in weighted on base average.

The Orioles are 13-42 in their last 55 road games. They are 11-40 in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Atlanta has been great at bouncing back from losses. They lost in extra innings on Friday night. Atlanta is 24-8 in their last 32 following a loss. The Braves are also 7-1 in Teheran's last 8 home starts.

Lance Barksdale is behind the plate here. I usually don't make too much out of home/road team splits for umpires, but Barksdale's are extreme. The home team has won 61% of his games as a home plate umpire and betting the home team in each of Barksdale's home plate games in his career would have you up 50 units now.

Too cheap of a price.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* The Chicago Cubs are a far superior team to the Cincinnati Reds. Give the Reds credit for playing much better of late, but I think this line shows some significant recency bias. 

Luis Castillo is a guy with a high upside to be sure, but he isn't throwing the ball well right now. Castillo allowed 29.6% of batted balls to be hard hit last year. It is all the way up to 38.4% this year. He has allowed less than 3 runs only 4 times in 15 starts. Home runs have been a major problem for him, and the Cubs lineup has plenty of power.

Jose Quintana has always been better on the road than at home. Quintana has a 2.78 ERA on the road this season.

Castillo and the Reds are both overpriced here. It's rare that the Cubs are underrated in the marketplace, but that's the case on Friday.

Take the Cubs. 

*4 Star Play on Oakland A's ML* James Shields isn't good at all. Shields has a 4.63 ERA and his xFIP and SIERA are both above 5. He has been prone to allowing home runs in past years, but he is minimizing homers so far this season. I think that will regress to the mean. 

Shields' fastball sits at 89 pretty consistently now. He's lost 3 mph off the fastball from 4 years ago. Shields regularly gets behind in the count thanks to poor control, and that can lead to major problems for him.

Oakland is second in weighted on base average on the road this year. The White Sox are 26th in wOBA at home this season.

The lineup looks good for Oakland despite it being the first game of the doubleheader. Davis is back in the lineup which is a nice boost. 

Sean Manaea went through a rough patch for a while, but he is clearly the better starter here. His upside is tremendous, and the White Sox are terrible against lefties.

The A's have the much better lineup and the much better starter and I'd call this bullpens pretty even.

Oakland is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The White Sox are 3-12 in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They are also 1-8 in Shields' last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies host the series finale against the New York Mets on Thursday afternoon. Kyle Freeland goes to the mound for the Rockies, and he's been tremendous at home in his young career. Freeland excels at inducing soft contact, and that has helped me be a rare started who can have success at Coors Field. 

Freeland goes against a New York Mets lineup that is easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Freeland has a career 3.52 ERA at Coors Field (21 starts). He is getting 8.9% swinging strikes compared to only 7.5% last year. 

Steven Matz has a 3.31 ERA, but his FIP is 5.06. He's pitched into some very good luck this year. Matz has a batting average on balls in play of only .244 after it was .329 a year ago. He's allowed more hard hit balls and more batters have gotten the barrel of the bat on his pitches this year. What's it all mean? He's due for some regression to the mean. 

You can never tell exactly when regression will hit, but expecting it to come in an afternoon game at Coors Field against a Rockies team that is very good at hitting lefties makes a lot of sense to me. 

The Mets are 0-4 in Matz's last 4 starts against the Rockies.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics go up against a young lefty in Joey Lucchesi for the Padres here. Oakland is 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and Lucchesi has a unique delivery that often catches people off guard the first few times they face him. 

Frankie Montas is a pretty highly rated prospect in the A's organization, and he starts this one for Oakland. San Diego is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Not having seen Montas should be a negative for the Padres as well.

This is a get away day game and that is a positive for the under. The pitcher batting for Oakland is a big positive here as well.

Both of these teams have multiple key hitters out with injuries, and the short-handed lineups simply aren't very good.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale is as dominant as any lefty in the game right now. Sale has a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 15.4%. He is allowing far less hard contact than he did last year. Sale is also good at limiting his walks and making hitters beat him, and not too many can beat Sale when he is throwing it well.

The Twins offense ranks 20th in the majors against left handed pitching according to weighted on base average. Minnesota has been terrible against lefties in the last month, and this is as tough of a matchup as they will ever get.

Jose Berrios has been amazing at home in the last couple seasons. Berrios' swinging strike rate was only 9.4% last year, but it is all the way up at 11.8% this season. Berrios is walking only 1.51 batters per nine innings. His ERA is 3.51, but his FIP is 3.33 and his SIERA is 3.29. 

The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 following a day off. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in the Red Sox last 5 in game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Twing last 4 games vs. a left handed starter. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves start Mike Soroka here. Soroka has been spectacular in the minors, and his career in the big leagues has started out very well also. Soroka has been elite at keeping the ball in the park, and his command is very good. 

The Braves bullpen has actually outpitched the Blue Jays bullpen by quite a bit in the past month. Osuna being out hurts the Jays bullpen significantly. 

Jaime Garcia has been bad this year. Garcia is allowing an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph, which is 7th worst out of all pitchers in the big leagues. Garcia is prone to the long ball, and the Braves have a lot of pop. Atlanta ranks 3rd in weighted on base average in the majors against lefties.

The Jays aren't the same team without Donaldson and Osuna.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The New York Yankees have seen 12 straight games go under the total. The Yankees offense is still very good, but their totals have been set too high considering they have arguably the best bullpen in the majors and a quality starting staff too.

Seattle's bullpen is top 6 in the majors in most statistics as well. The Mariners start Marco Gonzales here. Gonzales has been highly rated as a prospect for quite some time. He didn't throw it well in his first couple years in the bigs, but he has a very solid 3.42 ERA and a 3.20 FIP so far this season. 

Domingo German has a very high swinging strike rate of 15.6%. German has a lot of spin on his breaking ball, and his upside is high. 

The wind is blowing in for this contest.

The under is 12-0 in the Yankees last 12 games. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The under is 4-0 in German's last 4 games. A 36-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 15 contests. New York's offense has been woeful in recent weeks. 

The Mets aren't good offensively against either side, but they are woeful against left-handed pitching. The Mets have a .261 weighted on base average against lefties. That's worst in the majors by a mile. The second worst wOBA against lefties is the Marlins and they are at .291. 

Tyler Anderson has been good at Coors Field with a 3.73 ERA there in his career. Anderson has a high 12.1% swinging strike rate going so far this year.

Jacob Degrom has been one of the top three pitchers in baseball so far this year. Degrom has been spectacular. He has a 1.55 ERA and a 1.98 FIP. His swinging strike rate is a ridiculous 15.1% on the season. Degrom has allowed 182 batted balls this year and according to Baseball Savant only 5 of those balls have been barreled. Degrom is getting lots of swings and misses and lots of weak contact.

It's Coors Field and games can certainly get high scoring, but it helps to have wind blowing in at 10 mph here.

The under is 7-0 in the Mets last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. An 18-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers get to go against James Shields in the finale of this series. Shields has thrown the ball better than I expected him to so far this year, but there are still plenty of warning signs when looking at his advanced statistics. Despite a 4.63 ERA on the year, Shields has a 5.20 xFIP and 5.09 SIERA. He is averaging only 5.94 strikeouts per nine innings. Shields has allowed a lot of home runs in the past few years, and I think his home run rate will worsen the rest of the way.

Blaine Hardy has been pretty good for the Tigers. Hardy has a 3.55 ERA and a 3.56 FIP on the season. His hard contact rates allowed are lower this year than in the past. Hardy threw 7 innings and allowed only one run recently against the White Sox.

The White Sox are in the bottom five in the majors against lefties. Chicago is 13-28 in their last 41 vs. a lefty. They are 5-14 in their last 19 vs. an AL Central opponent. The White Sox are 1-6 in Shields' last 7 after a quality start in his last outing.

Take Detroit here. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* Carlos Martinez has walked 12 batters in 7 and 2/3 innings since coming back from the disabled list and a LAT injury. Martinez leads the majors in hit batters this year as well. He's been fairly wild overall, but since the injury Martinez is routinely getting behind in the count. 

The Cubs aren't the team you want to be facing when you are struggling with command. The Cubs rank third in walk percentage with 9.7% of their at bats ending in a walk. They'll make Martinez throw strikes here.

Kyle Hendricks has a solid 3.38 ERA in five starts in St. Louis. Hendricks has a brilliant 2.74 ERA in night games in his career. He is a guy who comes into this one throwing the ball well.

The Cubs hold a clear bullpen advantage here, and the Cubs are the much healthier team. Jose Martinez being out of the lineup hurts the Cardinals.

Take Chicago here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Braves have actually been better offensively on the road than at home. Atlanta has a very talented young offense, but they have been slumping a bit of late. The Braves have scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 contests.

Sean Newcomb is more than capable of dominating a game. Newcomb sometimes struggles with walks, but having a major strike caller behind the plate in the form of home plate umpire Doug Eddings is a big help for him.

Jordan Lyles has improved from last year, and I would expect him to be the type of guy who benefits from Eddings behind the plate as well.

Eddings has called the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the last five years. 

The under is 12-5 in Newcomb's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies have struggled all year against right handed pitching, but they are very good against lefties. Colorado ranks 8th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Rockies are 23rd against right handed pitching. They get to face a lefty in this one. Not only do they face a lefty, but it is a bad lefty in Yohander Mendez. 

Mendez has been knocked around to the tune of a 5.26 ERA and a 6.17 FIP in Triple A this year. He allowed a high 1.75 homers per nine innings in Triple A this year. He allowed 2.19 homers per nine innings last year in the majors. Mendez is only being started here, because the Rangers are banged up and really don't have many options at all.

Chad Bettis starts for the Rockies, and while I'm not all that high on Bettis, he is better than Mendez. He also gets to face a Rangers offense that is very weak against right handed pitching. The Rangers are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. Bettis has a 2.03 ERA in seven road starts this season. 

The Rockies also get one of the top five bullpen pitchers in baseball back for this one as Adam Ottavino returns from the disabled list. 

The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 against a right handed starter.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox start Carlos Rodon here. Rodon was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball a couple years ago. He's dealt with quite a few injuries, but he's been in great form in the minors this year, and his upside is tremendous. Rodon had a 1.42 ERA and averaged more than 15 strikeouts per nine innings in his 3 Triple A appearances earlier this year. He has held the Indians lineup to a very low .251 weighted on base average in his career.

Mike Clevinger has proven to be a solid pitcher at this point in his career. He pitches fairly deep into the game and he's up against a White Sox lineup that is badly struggling right now. Clevinger has a terrific 3.06 ERA in day games in his career. 

The wind is blowing in about 8 mph for this one and the temperature is fairly moderate for this time of year. 

It's a get away day game where it is very likely we'll see some key players sitting this one out.

The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 home games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. A 16-0 angle combined.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Minnesota Twins are laying a big price on the road here. I think it's too big. Jose Berrios is a very talented pitcher, but his road record so far in his career isn't very good. Berrios has a 3.90 ERA at home in his career and a 5.41 ERA on the road. 

Minnesota is only 3-13 in Berrios' last 16 road starts. They are 2-5 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Matt Boyd has been a solid starter this year for the Tigers. His swinging strike rate is at a career high so far this year. Detroit is healthier on offense than they have been in quite some time as well.

The Tigers are 5-0 in Boyd's last 5 home starts. 

The Twins deserved to be favored here, but this is too big of a price.

Take Detroit. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks still rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the year. They have hit really well of late, but I don't think this is a good offense long-term without Pollock healthy. 

Jameson Taillon is an above average pitcher who has pitched into some bad luck so far this year. Taillon's velocity is up this year and so is his swinging strike rate. I expect him to have a solid season.

Zack Greinke has been very good this year. Greinke isn't issuing many free passes at all, and this Pirates offense has been much better against lefties than righties.

Both of these offenses are much better against lefties than righties, and both see a quality right handed starter here.

Ryan Blakney is behind the plate and he's one of the best under umpires in the game. This is also a get away day game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense has hit left handed pitching very well this year, but they have been bad against right handers. They face one of the top young right handed starters in the game now in Aaron Nola. 

The Phillies are also much better against left handed pitching. They are up against Jon Gray, who is a good pitcher and due for some positive regression. Gray has a 5.66 ERA, but an impressive 3.12 FIP and 3.21 xFIP. Gray is getting 12.2% swinging strikes this year, and all of his advanced statistics are the best they have been in his career.

Nola has allowed more than 3 runs only one time this year. He has allowed 2 or less in 10 of his 13 starts. His consistency has been really impressive.

I see a lower scoring game here with both starters throwing the ball well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* The Chicago Cubs go to Milwaukee and for the Cubs I see this as a really important series. They are the team to beat, but Milwaukee has been better than them to this point in the season. The Cubs still have the more balanced team, and in this one they have a starting pitching advantage.

Jose Quintana has been throwing the ball well overall of late. Quintana's career numbers against the Brewers are amazing. Quintana has a 0.63 ERA in 43 innings pitched against Milwaukee. In 174 at bats, the Brewers have hit a total of zero home runs off Quintana. 

Junior Guerra has given up hard contact all year long, and he should regress to the mean over the rest of the year. His ERA is much better than his FIP or xFIP right now. Guerra has pitched well against the Cubs, but it is in a small sample size.

The Brewers are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cubs are 3rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

The Cubs are 40-14 in their last 54 road games vs. a right handed starter. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 following a road trip of 7 days or more. 

Take the Cubs. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves have crushed left handed pitching this year. The Braves are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Braves have been mediocre against righties this year. 

Ross Stripling has been as underrated as anyone in the majors so far this year. Stripling has a ridiculously low ERA and his FIP of 1.99 suggests it isn't just luck. Stripling mixes up his pitches well and gets a lot of late movement. Stripling has allowed just 5 runs in his last 35 innings pitched. Stripling has 4 walks and 47 strikeouts during that time.

Sean Newcomb has been great for the Braves this year. Newcomb has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of his 12 starts this year.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he's a great under umpire. The under is 42-14 in Miller's last 56 Sunday games behind the plate. His strike percentage is one of the highest in the majors every year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* As long as the Reds are a virtual pick'em on the moneyline against quality teams, I'll look to fade them as often as I can. 

The Reds are one of the worst teams in baseball. Cincinnati finds ways to lose games. The Reds bullpen has been overused in a big way over the last few days. They have played two extra inning games in their last three days. 

The Cardinals have a deep lineup- and they have a good starting pitcher in Carlos Martinez going in this one. Martinez has had success against the Reds in the past as he has been very good against Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Billy Hamilton.

Anthony DeSclafani has potential, but he's recovering from a major injury and isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. His starts in the minors weren't very encouraging.

The Cardinals are a whopping 13-0 in their last 13 games vs. the Reds. The Cardinals are 8-0 in Martinez's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. They are also 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the NL Central. A 27-0 angle.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Koch's numbers in Triple A weren't good. In the majors, Koch has been fortunate and has a quality ERA. His advanced numbers suggest regression is coming as he continues to give up lots of hard contact and he can't miss bats often enough.

Chad Bettis is much worse pitching at home compared to on the road. Bettis has a 5.48 ERA in his career at home. Bettis is another low strikeout guy, and his style of pitching doesn't match this ballpark well at all.

The Rockies bullpen is worse without Ottavino. The DBacks bullpen and the Rockies bullpen have been used heavily of late.

The temperature of 95 degrees during this game is a big positive for the over. That kind of heat at Coors Field is great for the ball to carry well. 

Both offenses appear to be breaking out of their funks, and I see this as a matchup of two very weak starters.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have owned the Cincinnati Reds in the past few seasons. The Cardinals start Michael Wacha here, and he has a great track record against Cincinnati. 

Luis Castillo has tons of potential, but he gets himself into trouble with big innings and a lot of long balls allowed. 

The Cardinals are the significantly better team here. There has been money come in on the Reds early and I'll go against this early line move. When I can get a good price like this to fade one of the worst teams in baseball- I have to do it.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last 5 vs. the NL Central. They are 9-0 in their last 9 games played in Cincinnati. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last 5 starts vs. the Reds. A 19-0 angle.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's never easy to take an under at Coors Field, but this Rockies team is definitely different than Colorado teams from the past 10 years or so. They are much less of an offensive juggernaut now and they are winning a lot of games with pitching.

German Marquez was a highly touted prospect all through his time in the minors. Marquez has thrown the ball really well in his last four games. His velocity is up quite a bit from last year, and he's starting to generate more swings and misses.

Zack Greinke has pitched pretty well at Coors Field in his career. Greinke is having another very solid season this year and he's backed by a good bullpen.

The DBacks are dead last at 30th in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. Teh Rockies aren't much better at 24th. 

The under is 9-3 in Marquez's last 12 home starts. The under is 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the DBacks. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5*  Jack Flaherty has been great in his short stay in the big leagues thus far. Flaherty has an 11.7% swinging strike rate in the majors. He will be up against a Miami Marlins lineup that has the second lowest weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. To say Miami comes into this game playing poorly is a major understatement. The Marlins have lost by more than one run in eight of their last ten games. 

Chen starts for the Marlins and he has struggled with his command this year. He's pitching from behind in the count far too often. That has lead to some major mistake pitches and big innings for the opposition. 

As they get healthy, I see the Cardinals as a dangerous team. Look for them to take care of business in this matchup. 

Take St. Louis -1.5

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense is expected to get Todd Frazier back in time for this game. That helps the middle of the order quite a bit.

The Baltimore Orioles offense has been really inconsistent of late, but there's no doubt that this unit is much healthier and more dangerous now than they were earlier this year.

Baltimore has been siginificantly better against lefties than righties. The Mets have been much better against right handed pitching than lefties. 

Jason Vargas and Alex Cobb have both thrown the ball poorly this year and are capable of giving up a bunch at any time. They are backed by two poor bullpens who are gassed right now.

The Mets have allowed 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 10 games. With two subpar starters and two tired bullpens I like this one to go over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians offense has been tremendous of late. They have scored 9 runs or more on their own ten times in the past month alone. The Indians offense is getting great productivity at the top of the order and that is setting the table nicely. 

Kyle Gibson starts for the Twins, and while Gibson has been better this year, he's a very inconsistent pitcher, and his numbers both at home and against the Indians are terrible. In his career, Gibson has an awful 5.82 ERA against Cleveland. His ERA at home against Cleveland is just above 7. Gibson is worse at home and worse during the day in his career as well.

Cleveland starts Mike Clevinger here, and he's been pretty good, but the bullpen has been the worst in the majors in the past month. They have been used heavily of late, and they are capable of giving up tons of runs in a hurry.

The wind is expected to be blowing out at almost 20 mph for this one. Both offenses have the potential to put up a big number here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks have really struggled offensively this year. They have struggled the most at home at Chase Field. They are 28th in the majors in weighted on base average at home. The under is 18-10-2 in their home games this year. The humidor seems to be making a difference here, and now with Pollock out the Dbacks are without a top hitter.

Zack Greinke is a really consistent pitcher. Greinke has a 3.65 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 3.18 and SIERA is 3.10- so he's been pretty unlucky. Greinke will face a Marlins lineup that is arguably the worst in the majors in this one. He's backed a DBacks bullpen that is a top six or eight bullpen in the majors.

Caleb Smith has been a big surprise this year. Smith's stats are really impressive. He has worked at least 5 and 1/3 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. Smith is striking out ore than 11 batters per nine innings. 

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here. The under is a whopping 91-50 in his last 141 games behind home plate. He should help both pitchers by giving them the corners more than most umpires would.

The under is 6-0-2 in the DBacks last 8 home games vs a left handed starter. The under is 5-0 in Greinke's last 5 starts overall. An 11-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs offense has been great in the past month. Since May 7, the Cubs have scored 8 runs or more eight different times. The Cubs rank third in the majors in weighted on base average.

Tyler Chatwood is on the mound here for the Cubs. Chatwood is walking more than 8 batters per nine innings. That's an outrageous number. He has walked five batters or more in 7 of his 10 starts this year. The Mets rank tenth best in the majors at drawing walks.  

Chatwood has a 4.75 FIP on the year and he has a SIERA above 6. He has been very fortunate with the lack of home runs allowed this season. That should regress toward the mean. 

Zack Wheeler has been inconsistent this year. Wheeler has an ERA over 5 and the Mets bullpen is absolutely gassed right now as well.

The wind is expected to be blowing out about 6-8 mph here with a temperature of almost 80 degrees. Adrian Johnson is the home plate umpire and the over is 54.5% in his career behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Oakland A's offense started the season on fire, but they have been in a terrible slump of late. In 6 of their last 9 games they have scored 2 runs or less. They haven't scored more than 4 runs in any of their last 9 games. 

Though Stanek is the starter here for Tampa Bay, it is expected that Ryan Yarbrough will come in and pitch the majority of this game. The Rays have successfully used this start the bullpen guy strategy and then use a young pitcher for the majority of the game. Yarbrough is a quality lefty who has good control and can induce a lot of soft contact. Oakland is 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The A's are also tied for last in weighted on base average in home games. 

Tampa Bay's offense should regress toward the mean over time. The Rays offense isn't as good as it has has looked so far this year. Their batting average on balls in play is second highest in the majors. 

Daniel Mengden averages less than one walk per game, and he has been locked in of late. I think he pitches well here.

The under is 13-3 in the A's last 16 home games. The under is 4-0-1 in the Rays last 5 road games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shohei Ohtani has been tremendous so far this year. Ohtani faces a Tigers lineup that has been pretty good against lefties, but against right handed pitching they have really struggled this year. They are without their star in Miguel Cabrera. Ohtani's swinging strike rate is 15.4%, which is extremely high. He's fooling people badly, and I think he pitches well here.

Mike Fiers is a bit of a wild card, but there are some factors to help him here. Fiers is a guy who nibbles at the corners a lot and Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in the majors. Fiers has a 0.59 ERA in 4 career appearances with Eddings behind home plate. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in from center field at a sustained rate of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph during this one. That's really significant at this ballpark. With this weather and a terrific under umpire, I like the value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* Alex Reyes starts for the Cardinals in this one. Reyes was considered the top pitching prospect in baseball not that long ago. His small amount of time in the majors was extremely successfully and he's been ringing up batters at a ridiculously high rate in the minors. Reyes has elite stuff. 

Junior Guerra has been very fortunate so far this year. Guerra has a 2.98 ERA and a 4.07 FIP and 4.62 xFIP. Guerra is allowing 43.3% of batted balls to be hit hard. He's getting a bunch of hard hit balls that have gone right at his fielders. That isn't likely to continue the rest of the season. His extremely low home run rate makes no sense, and it will regress to the mean as well.

The starting pitching mismatch here is a significant one. Guerra has poor numbers against the Cardinals in a very limited sample as well. 

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Under* There are a few factors at work in this one. First, Kenta Maeda is absolutely dealing of late. Maeda has thrown shutouts in each of his last two starts. He has 4 walks and 20 strikeouts in those two starts. Maeda's swinging strike rate is all the way up to 14.4% this year. He's throwing the ball extremely well and he's at home at a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Jake Arrieta isn't getting swings and misses like Maeda, but he is getting a ton of soft contact. He's been getting hitters to roll over on a lot of pitches. Arrieta's hard hit fly ball rate is among the lowest in the majors.

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here. He's among the best under umpires in the majors. The under is 90-50 in his last 140 games behind home plate. His strikeout/walk ratio is 8th in the majors in the past five years.

The Dodgers have allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. The Dodgers bullpen is finally rounding into form. Philadelphia's offense has struggled on the road.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves are elite against left handed pitching, but against right handed pitching they are actually below the league average in weighted on base average. Atlanta is expected to be without Acuna here after he was injured on Sunday, and that's a big loss in the lineup.

Jacob Degrom has been fantastic this year for the Mets. Degrom has a 1.54 ERA and a terrific 1.89 FIP on the season. His swinging strike rate is all the way up to 15%, which is about as good as you will ever see. Degrom has been one of the best in the majors this year. He has a career ERA of only 1.97 in day games. He has a career ERA of only 1.89 in 13 starts against Atlanta.

Max Fried is a talented young lefty for the Braves. Fried goes against a Mets lineup that ranks last by a large margin in weighted on base average against lefties. The Mets lineup is a really weak one without Cespedes and Frazier, especially against left handed pitching.

Both lineups are banged up going into this one and I like the starting pitching matchup.

The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have struggled all year against right handed pitching, but they are very solid against lefties. Detroit ranks 10th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching.

The opposite is true about the Angels. They are 4th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are only 18th in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Detroit starts Matt Boyd here, and I think he is undervalued. Boyd was thought of as a good prospect for many years, and he underperformed in his first few years in the big leagues. He has been much better in day games in his career than at night as well.

Tyler Skaggs is a solid lefty as well, but the Tigers are catching a big price here. The Angels are the better team, but looking to fade the better team when they are late on a long road trip has been a strong long term angle. 

While the Tigers stayed at home Sunday night, the Angels flew from New York and have an early start on Monday.

Too big of a price.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here. Pivetta is one of the most improved pitchers in baseball. He was tremendous in the minors, but struggled in the big leagues last year. He's getting ahead in the count and not making near as many mistakes this year. Pivetta's swinging strike rate was an average 8.7% last year and it has jumped to an impressive 11.3% this year. Pivetta has a 3.23 ERA and his FIP is even better at 2.86. 

J.A. Happ has been great so far this year. Happ had a swinging strike rate of 9.4% last year, but it has jumped to 12.0% this season. He's been much sharper with his slider, and that gives hitters something extra to worry about. In 4 of his last 6 starts, Happ has gone at least 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less. 

Both of these bullpens were used a lot less yesterday thanks to some good work by the starting pitchers, and that helps make more of the best bullpen guys available in this one. 

The wind blowing in at 10-15 mph during this game is a nice help.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves rank first in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against left-handed pitching. The Boston Red Sox rank 28th out of 30 teams in the major in wOBA vs. lefties. 

Both teams numbers are likely to regress to the mean at least somewhat, but the Red Sox are certainly much better against right handed pitching.

Sean Newcomb has allowed a grand total of one run in his last 25 innings pitched. Newcomb is a lefty who averages 10 strikeouts per nine innings, and he does a great job inducing soft contact and keeping the ball in the park. Newcomb has a career 2.70 ERA on the road and a career 2.62 ERA in day games.

Drew Pomeranz is walking more guys than he ever has before, and he is allowing more hard contact than he has ever before as well. Pomeranz is wild both inside and outside of the strike zone right now.

Atlanta is 16-5 in their last 21 following a loss. They are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a lefty.

Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Mets offense is a mess without Cespedes, Frazier, and Lagares. The Brewers offense has underachieved all season. 

Noah Syndergaard is a top young talent. Syndergaard contains a rare combination of great command and great swing and miss stuff. Very few pitchers that have the swing and miss stuff that he has are able to throw strikes as consistently as Syndergaard. 

Junior Guerra has been solid this year. Guerra has an impressive 3.02 ERA at home in his career. He's backed by a fantastic bullpen. All of the Brewers top bullpen guys should be available in this one.

Mike Muchlinski is the home plate umpire and that's a plus for the under as well. He has consistently had a higher strikeout/walk ratio than the average umpire.

The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games. The Brewers offense has been shut down multiple times of late as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets have now scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Mets offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are severely shorthanded with their best bats out of the lineup due to injuries.

Zach Davies is a mediocre pitcher, but he says he is healthy again now and his numbers should improve a bit from his relatively slow start. Davies has good career numbers against the Mets in a small sample size as well. 

Steven Matz goes against a Brewers offense that has been bad against lefties this year. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

In the last 30 days- these two teams rank 24th and 29th overall in the majors in weighted on base average. These offenses have been struggling.

The Mets bullpen is average, but the Brewers bullpen is elite. The Mets don't give us many reasons to expect them to score much here, and the Brewers numbers against lefties are very poor.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pittsburgh Pirates were beaten easily by the lowly Reds in the series opener on Monday night, but I like their chances of bouncing back here. 

Homer Bailey hasn't been good the last couple years, but he's hit a new low this year. Bailey has a 6.11 ERA and a 6.05 FIP on the season. He is giving up a lot of really hard contact, and he's giving up more fly balls than ever. That's a bad match for Great American Ballpark. Bailey's numbers in his career are much worse at GABP than on the road. In fact, in the last three seasons opponents have a weighted on base average above .400 against Bailey when he is pitching at home.

Chad Kuhl has a 4.90 ERA at home in his career and a 3.85 ERA on the road. Kuhl is notoriously  a slow starter, so I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers for this season improve in the coming months.

The Pirates have a significant bullpen advantage over the Reds. Pittsburgh has a top six or eight bullpen in the majors.

The Reds are a woeful 4-17 in Bailey's last 21 home starts and 1-10 in his last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's hard to overstate how great Jacob Degrom has been this year. Degrom has a 1.75 ERA and a 1.82 FIP, so it hasn't been good luck, he's just been tremendous. Degrom walked none and struck out 13 in a dazzling performance in his last outing. In his last 27 innings pitched, he has allowed a grand total of one run. 

Degrom has always been great at Citi Field. He has a career ERA of 2.31 at home. His WHIP is only 1.037 at home in his career.

The Marlins have the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching, and it isn't close. Degrom should be able to shut them down and pitch deep into this game.

Dan Straily has pitched much better in his last couple games, and he's going against a Mets lineup that is severely short-handed right now. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Atlanta Braves offense is very good, but they are much better against lefties than righties. Atlanta has a .321 weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but their wOBA is all the way up at .358 against lefties. They'll face right-handed Vince Velasquez in this one. 

Velasquez has pushed up his swinging strike and strikeout rates this year, and advanced statistics show he has gotten a little unlucky on the whole this season. 

Brandon McCarthy starts for the Braves. His swinging strike is down drastically and his velocity is down a bit as well. McCarthy has had some really poor outings of late, and I don't trust him to get deep into the game.

I rate the Phillies bullpen as better than the Braves bullpen, and we have the Phillies laying a short price here at home.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on Oakland A's Moneyline* The Oakland A's have a lot of depth and a lot of power in their lineup. Oakland ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching so far this year. They are up against a very subpar right handed pitcher in Joe Biagini here. 

Biagini has allowed 3 runs or more in less than 6 innings pitched in 12 of his last 14 starts. Biagini has a 7.98 ERA on the season and a 6.14 FIP. He is giving up a ton of hard contact on fly balls, and that means a bunch of homers. Oakland has plenty of pop. 

Daniel Mengden gives the A's a decisive pitching advantage. Mengden is averaging less than one walk per nine innings, and he has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.56 FIP. Mengden has allowed 2 runs or less in five of his last six starts. 

The Blue Jays bullpen isn't nearly as strong without Osuna at the back end. Some of the middle relievers have been overused lately, and Toronto's bullpen blew a late lead yesterday. 

Toronto is 3-14 in Biagini's last 17 starts. They are 2-8 in his last 10 home starts. Oakland is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

Take Oakland. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins are expected to be without Joe Mauer here as he left last night's game due to a minor back injury. Miguel Sano is still out due to an injury as well. Sano is their best power hitter and Mauer is their most consistent hitter overall. This lineup is significantly weakened right now.

Ryan Braun is on the DL for the Brewers, and they certainly miss his bat. The Brewers rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major offensive categories so far this year. Milwaukee's bullpen has been absolutely amazing, and they haven't been overworked of late, so most of their top arms should be available here.

Freddy Peralta faced 21 batters at Coors Field in his MLB debut and he struck out 13 of them. I don't have to tell you that isn't an easy task. Peralta hides the ball extremely well and his deceptive delivery should make him tough for hitters the first few times they see him. He has been very good in Triple A.

Fernando Romero has been excellent in his first three big league starts. He has a 12.9% swinging strike rate. Romero consistently throws 97 or 98 mph and still manages to do a solid job limiting hard contact.

Mark Ripperger is behind the plate and I consider him a big under umpire. He ranks in the top six in the majors in strike percentage called in the past five years. The wind is blowing in as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks go to New York City to take on the Mets on Friday night. The Diamondbacks offense has been one of the most disappointing in the majors. Arizona is where they are at right now because of their pitching staff. The Mets started the season hitting the ball well, but injuries stopped them in their tracks in recent weeks.

Arizona is without A.J. Pollock and Jake Lamb due to injury and that is two key losses. Pollock had been on fire offensively until getting hurt a few days ago. 

The Mets are without Todd Frazier and Yoenis Cespedes here. They might also be without Juan Lagares. 

On the season, the Mets are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average and the Diamondbacks are 28th. 

Godley has proven to be a quality starting pitcher and Arizona's bullpen is great. 

Jacob Degrom hasn't allowed a run in his last 20 innings pitched. Degrom has tremendous splits at home throughout his career, and his swinging strike rate is a career high 14.7%. He's pitching at an elite level.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph in this one at Citi Field with temperatures only in the 50's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies are too big of an underdog here. San Francisco sits at 22-22 on the year. The Giants are a mediocre team. Jeff Samardzija goes to the mound for them here. Samardzija has been really bad so far this year. In five starts, he has an ERA of 6.94 and his FIP is 6.28 so he isn't just getting unlucky. He has walked 15 guys and only struck out 20 on the year. 

Colorado's Chad Bettis has a 1.35 ERA on the road this year. I'm not going to pretend his ERA will stay that low on the road, but Bettis has been much better on the road during his career. Opponents have a weighted on base average of .358 against Bettis at Coors Field and only a .326 wOBA when he pitches on the road. 

Bettis has allowed a low .278 wOBA against the Giants lineup in his career. Samardzija has struggled mightily in a pretty large sample size against the Rockies. Colorado's hitters have an impressive .386 wOBA against Samardzija.

Colorado is 25-12 in Bettis' last 37 starts. The Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games. The Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. They are also only 2-7 in Samardzija's last 9 starts.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros send Justin Verlander to the mound on Wednesday night against the Los Angeles Angels. Verlander is throwing the ball as well right now as he has anytime in his career. Verlander has a 1.21 ERA so far this year, which obviously can't stay that low, but his advanced statistics are the best they have been in his long and terrific career. 

Verlander is in great form, and he goes up against an Angels lineup he has owned. The Angels have had a relatively large sample size of 196 at bats against Verlander, and they have a horrible .128 average. Mike Trout is 2/23 against him. Ian Kinsler is 4/32 against him. 

Garrett Richards is a good pitcher, but he is far less consistent than Verlander.

The offenses I rate similarly. The Angels have hit better so far this year, but the Astros have some very solid depth in the lineup.

The Astros have a huge bullpen edge. The Angels have a worse than average bullpen, while the Astros bullpen is top three in the majors.

A short price with a dominant pitcher and great bullpen.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle ML* The Mariners are getting no respect here. Robinson Cano being out absolutely hurts this team, but we shouldn't pretend that he is the only reason they are winning games. Seattle has had a great lineup against lefties all season. In fact, Seattle is third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this season.  The Mariners have several guys who aren't very good against right handed pitchers, but they excel against lefties.

Mike Minor is a middle of the road lefty. Minor has given up a lot of hard contact this year, and he has been worse in his last couple starts. 

Mike Leake is due for some positive regression. His batting average allowed on balls in play is at a high level of .319. Leake is facing a Rangers offense that ranks in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. 

The Mariners have a big bullpen advantage in this one as well. Texas' bullpen is badly banged up. 

The Rangers will likely be without Adrian Beltre again here, and Elvis Andrus remains out of the lineup.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star Play on Brewers ML* Patrick Corbin's velocity has dropped drastically in his last couple outings. He has still pitched pretty well in those games, but Corbin's fastball velocity has dropped 3 mph on average in his last two outings. That's usually a sign of major problems ahead. Corbin may well be injured, and with this question mark around him and against a good team, I'll fade the DBacks.

Milwaukee has a better bullpen than Arizona according to the advanced metrics. The Brewers have had the worst batted ball luck against lefties of any team in the majors. This lineup should end up being pretty good this year as well.

Junior Guerra goes against a DBacks offense that ranks in the bottom six in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. Guerra has a 3.09 ERA and a 3.84 FIP this season.

Grab the big price on the underdog here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City are much better against left handed pitching than they are against right handers. Tampa Bay is 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Kansas City is 15th. 

We have two young lefties going in this one, and neither of these guys have been able to pitch deep into the game very often. Kansas City's bullpen is the worst in the majors, and Tampa Bay's bullpen is no better than league average. A lot of innings from the bullpens should mean more scoring chances.

The weather here is very favorable for an over. A temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out 13-15 mph are great for the over. There is a chance of rain as well- that could delay the game which means more of the bullpen and in this case that is a positive.

The Royals have allowed a whopping 49 runs in their last six games. The Rays have allowed 35 runs in their last 4 games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays start Joe Biagini here. Biagini pitched decently last year for a while in the starter's role for Toronto, but the wheels fell off after a while. He didn't pitch very well in Triple A as a starter earlier this year, and now he has an 8.10 ERA in two starts in the big leagues this year.

The Boston Red Sox are easily first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Boston has the second lowest strikeout rate against right handed pitching, and they are second best in isolated power. Biagini has a 6.48 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. Mookie Betts has 6 hits in 11 at bats off him, and two of those hits are homers.

Drew Pomeranz is having some major problems this year. His average fastball velocity is down about 2.5 miles per hour from last year. Pomeranz is giving up much more hard contact this year, and he's pitching from behind in the count more than normal.

Both bullpens have been overworked in recent days. Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire here, and he's one of the best over umpires in baseball. While Sunday is a big under day long term in MLB- the over is 42-17-1 in Meals' last 60 Sunday games behind the plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Twins take on the Angels on Saturday night. Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Twins. Nick Tropeano is on the hill for the Angels. 

Gibson had been terrible through most of his career, but he has improved so far this season. I'm still a bit skeptical that it is a big breakout. Gibson has struggled badly against the Angels in the past and this is a big test for him. The Angels have a .383 weighted on base average as a team against Gibson. Gibson still has control issues, and I think that will catch up to him over time.

Nick Tropeano is coming off the DL to make this start. Tropeano is no better than a league average pitcher even when he is healthy.

In the past two weeks, the Angels are first in the majors in weighted on base average as a team and the Twins are fourth. Both bullpens are worse than the league average as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* Max Scherzer has been at his absolute best so far this year. In 5 of his 8 starts he has 10 strikeouts or more. Scherzer had an amazing swinging strike rate of 15.5% last year, but so far this year it is all the way up to a ridiculous 17.4%. Scherzer has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.75 FIP. He isn't getting lucky, he's simply dominating the opposition.

Matt Koch was hit around in Triple A last year. He's come up to the majors and performed well so far this year, but his advanced statistics suggest regression is on the way. Koch has a 2.13 ERA and a 4.45 FIP. He averaged less than 5 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A in the last two seasons. A pitch to contact guy who is giving up hard contact is a guy I will look to fade, and that's what Koch has been so far this year.

Despite being banged up, Washington is 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Nationals have gotten some great at bats from Matt Adams in recent weeks. Arizona is 23rd in wOBA against right handed pitching so far this season.

A big pitching mismatch here.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves offense is no fluke. Atlanta has young talent at the top of the order, and with veteran reliable hitters like Freeman and Markakis right behind them it has made for a very tough lineup for opposing pitchers to face. Atlanta is third in the majors behind only the Red Sox and the Yankees in weighted on base average (wOBA). The Braves have been at their best offensively on the road.

Dan Straily has allowed a wOBA of .422 to the Braves lineup. Straily is working his way back from his first disabled list stint in the majors. Straily had a terrible 6.92 ERA in three starts in the minors and he has struggled badly in his first two starts in the big leagues as well. He has walked 4 guys in 4 innings in each of his first two starts in the majors. He has a 6.75 in two starts, but his FIP is even worse at just north of 10. In a small sample size these can certainly be skewed, but Straily has struggled a lot this year and now faces a tremendous lineup.

Brandon McCarthy is coming off a terrible outing, but now he faces a Marlins team that is terrible against right handed pitching. Miami has a miserable .266 wOBA against righties. The second worst team in the majors in this statistic is at .281. 

The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL East. They are 4-0 in McCarthy's last 4 starts vs. the NL East. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A combined 20-0 angle.

This is too short of a price for the much better team.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Colorado Rockies have overachieved so far this year. Colorado has had a lot of good luck in the early going. The Rockies are a decent team, but they are being priced here like a team that is a 93 or 94 win team for the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a quality team. Milwaukee's bullpen is second best in the majors with a 2.56 ERA on the year. They rank in the top five of all advanced statistics as well, so it hasn't been luck. Corey Knebel just came off the DL, and he has been dominant in the past couple years. The Brewers bullpen is even better now. 

Colorado ranks 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rockies have crushed lefties, but they have struggled against righties all year. 

Chacin isn't a great pitcher by any means, but he was decent at Coors Field in his time with the Rockies and he is backed by the much better bullpen. I believe the Brewers offense is better than the Rockies too, at least against right handed pitching.

At this big price- I'll take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays haven't had their typical success against lefties so far this year (they are near the middle of the pack against lefties thus far), but with Josh Donaldson back in the lineup I expect them to improve a lot against lefties. 

Seattle is top ten in almost every major offensive category against left handed pitchers. The Mariners have several good right handed platoon guys who have made a career of hitting lefties. 

Wade LeBlanc starts for the Mariners here. LeBlanc has pitched pretty well at home in his career (most of those starts have been in pitcher friendly San Diego and Seattle), but LeBlanc has an ERA of just a tick higher than 6.5 in road starts in his career. He is a below average lefty.

Jaime Garcia isn't the pitcher he once was. He has always been streaky, and he's in really poor form coming into this game. Garcia threw it well in his first start of the year, but since then he hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 in any outing, and he's allowed at least 3 runs in every game. His last two outings have been terrible.

Osuna is out for the Blue Jays which makes their bullpen much worse. The Mariners bullpen has been shaky this year as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any home plate umpire in the last 6 years. It isn't very close either. Eddings has consistently had an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He's arguably the best under umpire in the game, and he's behind home plate here.

Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers Jr. are two young guys with elite stuff. Both of them have been victimized by walks in the past, but their control has been better so far this season. Eddings will help both of these guys when it comes to expanding the strike zone a bit.

The A's are a good offense, but they are better against right handed pitching than lefties. Houston's bullpen is elite and that certainly helps the under a great deal as well.

In 161 AB's vs. Manaea- the Astros have a very poor .267 weighted on base average. In 55 AB's against McCullers, the A's have a .254 weighted on base average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox offense is banged up pretty badly right now. Moncada had just started to heat up when he went down with an injury. Avasail Garcia is also out with an injury. 

In Chicago's last 26 games, they have scored 2 runs or less 13 times. The White Sox are now injury depleted the most they have been all year on offense.

Pittsburgh's offense isn't as good as they have looked early in the year. On the road, Pittsburgh is now down to 20th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA). The White Sox are much weaker on offense at home (26th in wOBA).

Giolito has shown positive signs in his last couple starts, and his potential is very high. Nova has been a pretty solid pitcher the last couple years, and he's backed by a strong bullpen. 

The wind is blowing in for this one and that is key in this stadium.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* The Cleveland Indians have lost three straight games. They could have won 2 of 3 in New York if it weren't for some ugly bullpen collapses. The Indians bullpen isn't the same without Andrew Miller. The big positive for them in this one is ace Corey Kluber starts. Kluber hasn't pitched less than 6 and 2/3 innings in any game this year, and he has pitched 8 full innings or more in three of his seven starts. 

Look for Kluber to go deep into this game and save the Tribe bullpen that has been overworked. It obviously helped for the Tribe to have a day off on Monday as well.

Cleveland is 7-0 on the run line in their last 7 games after a three game losing streak. 

This Indians offense is better than they have shown this year, and they go against a subpar pitcher in Wade Miley. Cleveland hitters have a tremendous .422 wOBA against Miley in 123 plate appearances. 

The pitching mismatch here is great, and I like the Indians to bounce back in this spot.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* I'm not going to try to sell you on the fact that Jordan Zimmermann is a guy I'm excited to back.  It's about the Kansas City Royals being one of the three or four worst teams in baseball. How are the Royals favored by this much? Seeing them at -140 to -145 is extremely strange to me. 

I know the Tigers aren't a good team either, but this feels like a pure tossup game to me. Jason Hammel is near the end of his career, and his velocity dip has led to more hard contact from opposing hitters. As bad as the Tigers bullpen is- they are better than the Kansas City bullpen. The Royals have the worst bullpen in the majors. 

Zimmermann's advanced statistics are quite a bit better so far this year than they have been the last couple seasons. Zimmermann has a great 1.67 ERA in 37 and 2/3 innings against the Royals. Much of that came in the last couple years when he was bad against nearly everyone else.

The Royals are 1-5 in Hammel's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 11-27 in Hammel's last 38 starts overall. The Royals are 2-10 in their last 12 home games vs. a right handed starter.

This is a price grab and a fade of a bad Kansas City team.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies have played well on the road so far this year, and I like them here catching plus money against a slumping New York Mets team. 

The Mets started the season red hot, but they were just embarrassed by Atlanta in their last series. The Mets have had a number of injury problems of late, and their bullpen has been worked heavily in recent games. 

The Rockies have a rest advantage here after having a day off on Thursday. German Marquez starts, and he has been much better on the road than at home in his career thus far. 

Zack Wheeler is a middle of the road starter, and the Mets are 2-7 in his last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 14-40 in their last 54 vs. a team with a winning record. 

According to the advanced metrics, the Rockies offense has been among the most unlucky this season, and the Rockies have a bullpen edge here.

Take Colorado.

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros look to avoid a 3 game losing streak on Thursday afternoon. The defending World Series champs are still a tremendous team, and it will be very rare to see them at this price level on their home field this year.

Masahiro Tanaka's short history against the Astros is about as bad as it could possibly be. Tanaka has a brutal 10.38 ERA in four career starts against Houston. The Astros lineup has an unreal weighted on base average of .510 against him, and they have 7 homers in only 47 at bats. 

Lance McCullers Jr. can be shaky on the road, but he has been amazing at home. McCullers has a 2.33 ERA at home vs. a 4.97 ERA on the road in his career. He is in great form of late. 

The Astros are a perfect 8-0 in McCullers last 8 starts when coming off a quality start. He's a streaky pitcher, and he's throwing it well of late. 

Take Houston here. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year at .373. This offense was pretty good to start the season and after adding in Acuna they are really a force. There is much more depth in this lineup than in most NL lineups, and Freddie Freeman continues to be underrated in the middle of the order.

The Mets have been badly banged up, and their season has turned south quickly in the last few days. Degrom was injured when pitching last night and was going for an MRI to see how bad the news is. They can't afford to have any more major injuries.

The Braves have the pitching edge with Teheran going against Vargas. Vargas' stuff didn't look good at all in his first start back from an injury, and he's going against a very good lineup. Teheran has been money against the Mets in the past. At Citi Field, Teheran has a sparkling 2.39 ERA in 10 starts.

Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Jason Vargas is a mediocre lefty, and he is coming off a fairly major injury. Vargas isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Mets bullpen is worn out right now. 

Julio Teheran has good history against the Mets in Citi Field, but Teheran's advanced statistics this year suggest he has been fortunate thus far. His fastball velocity is down more than 2 mph from last year, and his hard hit rate allowed is up quite a bit. The Braves bullpen is a big problem as well. 

A large reason for this play is the weather. Temperatures in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at 15-20 mph are tremendous for the over. 

In the past 15 years- when the wind is blowing out at least 10 mph at Citi Field- the over is a whopping 116-67 (63.4% overs). If you look at totals of 8.5 or lower only, the over rate goes up to better than 66% during that span.

Two shaky starters and winds howling out on a hot day are a recipe for runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather calls for temperatures in the low 80's and wind blowing out at about 15 mph during this game. That's very favorable conditions for an over.

Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one the best over umpires in baseball. Holbrook has seen 54.5% of his games in his career behind the dish go over the total. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently low compared to the big league average.

Giolito has walked a lot more guys than he has struck out this year. He'll likely have trouble against a Cardinals lineup that is very deep. The White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in baseball as well.

Carlos Martinez is a good pitcher, but he is due for some regression due to his batted ball luck and his strand rate so far this year.

Take the over.