|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-01-17||Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves||3-2||Loss||-105||16 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a ridiculous 42-11 in their last 53 games. They actually had a bad series against Atlanta recently and I think the Dodgers will be motivated for this series.
Additionally, I believe it gives the team clubhouse a nice morale boost when the front office goes out and does as much as this team did to get better at the trade deadline. The Dodgers aren't likely to be flat right now.
Kenta Maeda has pitched significantly better of late. He doesn't pitch deep into the game, but the Dodgers bullpen ranks first in the majors in FIP. The Braves rank in the bottom ten in all major bullpen categories.
Lucas Sims has had trouble with walks in his minor league career and starting in your first big league game against the Dodgers is a very tough task.
Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|08-01-17||Nationals -1.5 v. Marlins||6-7||Loss||-120||16 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Nationals have been excellent on offense all year. Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon have been hitting the cover off the ball. Rendon is elite against lefties, and they face a weak lefty in this one.
Chris O'Grady has been very fortunate so far in the majors. He has stranded 79% of runners and hasn't given up many homers at all despite allowing hard contact and a bunch of fly balls. His minor league stats are nothing special, and I see O'Grady as a ticking time bomb who is going to get hit hard sometime soon.
Max Scherzer has been awesome of late. Scherzer has allowed 1 earned run or less in 9 of his last 12 starts. That's remarkable consistency, and he has nine strikeouts or more in 9 of his last 10 games.
Take Washington -1.5.
|08-01-17||Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 8||10-12||Loss||-120||16 h 36 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale has 10 strikeouts or more in six of his last eight games. He has nine strikeouts in the other two games in that span. Sale has pitched a shutout in three straight games. He has allowed 1 run or less in six of the team's last eight games.
Carlos Carrasco is far less consistent than Sale, and there is some chance he gets hit a decent amount. Still, the Red Sox have an inconsistent lineup and Pedroia is banged up (questionable).
A slight wind blowing in and an under umpire are two nice bonuses for this play.
The under is 21-8 in Carrasco's last 29 road starts. The under is 5-1 in Sale's last 6.
Take the under.
|07-31-17||Indians -129 v. Red Sox||2-6||Loss||-129||18 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians are playing much better baseball of late. This team still has a really high ceiling. One of the things that shows you the Indians have another gear is the fact that they have performed at their best against elite teams. They have been great against Houston already this year as an example.
Mike Clevinger isn't a special starting pitcher or anything, but he has turned himself into what looks like a big league average right handed starting pitcher.
Doug Fister is way worse than an average pitcher at this point. Fister's not getting anyone to swing at bad balls like he did a few years ago, and his control has been terrible. Fister is walking 6.04 batters per nine innings. He's almost walking as many as he is striking out. He has a 7.49 ERA on the year, and his xFIP is 5.92.
Dustin Pedroia is doubtful for this one with an injury, and he's the main guy who holds this Boston team together.
The Indians have a slight edge in the bullpen as well.
The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. A 21-0 angle.
|07-31-17||Royals -103 v. Orioles||1-2||Loss||-103||2 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Kansas City Royals* I have to do it. I have to fade Ubaldo Jimenez with a red hot Royals team at essentially even money. I have seen money come in on Jimenez and the Orioles today and wondered if someone was sitting out for the Royals. The lineups are out, and the Royals lineup looks good.
Melky Cabrera is in the lineup for the first time, and he helps their depth quite a bit. With Cain, Cabrera, Hosmer, Perez, and Moustakas the Royals are building a solid middle of the order.
Danny Duffy has walked only three guys since coming back from the disabled list. His improved control has led to good results overall. Duffy has been good at suppressing home runs in his career as well, and that's huge against an Orioles team that relies heavily on homers.
Ubaldo Jimenez isn't any good. He'll throw in an occasional really good start, but 75% of the time he is bad, and I'll take my chances with the better starter and a red hot team.
The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Take Kansas City.
|07-30-17||Pirates v. Padres UNDER 8.5||7-1||Win||100||12 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense hasn't been good. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Pirates have scored more than 4 runs only twice in their last 14 games.
Clayton Richard isn't very good, and Pittsburgh should get some shots against him, but this is a very pitcher-friendly park and with the Padres recent over run, this game is inflated by half a run. The Padres bullpen has been solid this year.
Gerrit Cole has been shutting people down of late. Cole has allowed 2 runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Cole has 5 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last four outings. This Padres lineup is still one of the worst in baseball. The Pirates bullpen has been excellent in the past month.
Sunday is the best under day in baseball by a large margin in the past 10 years. With Cole dealing and the Pirates offense struggling, I'll grab the under in this one.
Take the under.
|07-29-17||Pirates v. Padres UNDER 8.5||2-4||Win||100||16 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Dinelson Lamet is a guy I think has a high upside. Lamet gives up a bunch of fly balls, which is a great thing when he is pitching at Petco Park. Lamet has had some great starts at home this year, while he has struggled consistently on the road.
Ivan Nova is a pitch to contact pitcher, and that is fine at a park like this. Nova doesn't walk anyone, and that helps him get by with giving up more hits than an average pitcher.
Both bullpens have been much better in the past month.
These two offenses both rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.
Take the under.
|07-29-17||Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9||3-4||Win||100||14 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* The weather plays a big role in this selection. Winds blowing in from center field of 15 mph during this game will definitely help the pitchers.
I also think Sean Newcomb and Jerod Eickhoff are young guys who are a bit undervalued by the markets right now. Both of these guys have some good movement on their offspeed pitches.
The Phillies have been hapless this year against lefties (.292 OBP). The Braves offense has been inconsistent this season.
Take the under.
|07-29-17||Mets v. Mariners UNDER 9||2-3||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been locked in of late. Degrom has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He isn't giving anyone free passes, and Degrom has always had great strikeout stuff.
The Mets offense is one that I believe has overachieved pretty drastically this year. The over is a whopping 59-30-11 in the Mets games, and at this point I see their totals getting inflated. Gallardo is obviously nothing special now, but I think he can at least limit the Mets.
This is still a pitcher-friendly park and with a very good pitcher in Degrom throwing on one side, a number of 9 here is too high.
Take the under.
|07-28-17||Orioles v. Rangers OVER 11||2-8||Loss||-107||16 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* It is scorching hot in Texas right now. The temperature at game time is expected to be 100 degrees. The ball flies extremely well in this park when it is this hot. That's a big factor in this play.
Of course it doesn't hurt to have two bad starting pitchers on the mound either. Chris Tillman has been abysmal all year. Tillman's velocity is down and his walks are way up. Tillman is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings and this isn't a good park to go to for a guy who can't keep the ball in the ballpark. The Rangers hitters have a tremendous .429 on base percentage against Tillman in 128 plate appearances.
Andrew Cashner has been due for regression for a long time. It hasn't come as much as I expected, but I still think it is coming. Cashner is walking 4 guys per nine innings and striking out 4.5 guys per nine innings. That's about as bad as you'll ever see from a big league starter. His SIERA is over 5.5 and he is tightroping his way out of some big innings.
The Orioles bullpen isn't what it used to be, and the Rangers bullpen is among the worst in baseball. Look for a high scoring contest here.
Take the over.
|07-27-17||A's v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||4-8||Loss||-114||10 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's offense has been dreadful of late. Oakland has scored only 8 runs in their last four games combined. The A's now face the Blue Jays best pitcher in Marcus Stroman.
Stroman has a career 4.09 ERA in the first half of the season. His career ERA in the second half is a full run better at 3.09. Stroman has his best numbers (3.16 ERA) when the roof is closed and with a chance of rain it is likely the roof will be closed for this one.
Oakland's Sean Manaea is a tremendous young pitcher. He has some maturing to do, but I think he has a really high upside. Manaea has a 3.82 ERA and a 3.55 FIP on the season.
The Blue Jays offense isn't elite, and I think this total is pricing them like they are.
This is a get away day game and some of the key starters will likely be out of the lineup for this one.
The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Blue Jays last 7 home games vs. a road team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The under is 3-0-1 in Stroman's last 4 home starts. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. A 22-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-26-17||Cubs -1.5 v. White Sox||8-3||Win||100||17 h 56 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* James Shields is absolutely one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Shields has a 5.79 ERA and a 6.83 FIP on the season. He is a notoriously streaky pitcher, and he is throwing the ball terribly right now. He has 11 walks and 10 strikeouts in his last four starts. He has allowed 6 runs in three of his last five starts. Here is another amazing stat: lefties have an amazing .442 weighted on base average against Shields this year.
What about the bullpen behind Shields? The White Sox traded away some top bullpen guys recently and this bullpen is no longer a strength.
Jake Arrieta has been better of late, and he's up against a White Sox team that is bottom five in the majors against right handed pitching. The White Sox walk only 5.7% of the team as a collective lineup against right handed pitching.
The Cubs are playing better baseball and the White Sox are in for a long rest of the season. This one should get ugly.
Take the Cubs -1.5.
|07-26-17||Marlins v. Rangers -1.5||22-10||Loss||-100||17 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Texas -1.5* The Texas Rangers start Yu Darvish here. Darvish is coming off a game where he struck out 12 guys and walked only one. Darvish had been missing fewer bats this year, but I believe he is trending upward now overall. His stuff is electric and it makes sense that many teams want to trade for him.
It's important to note that Miami doesn't see Darvish, and that's an advantage for him. The AL has dominated interleague play the last few years. Also very important to note here: Justin Bour is hurt and the bottom of this Marlins lineup is really weak now.
Jose Urena continues to give up a lot of fly balls and strand a bunch of runners. This is a tough place for pitchers though and I give the Rangers a real solid shot at knocking him around in this one.
Take Texas -1.5.
|07-26-17||Astros v. Phillies UNDER 8.5||0-9||Loss||-115||21 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Wednesday night in a battle of two pitchers who have been throwing the ball extremely well of late.
Mike Fiers has a superb 2.36 ERA over his last 10 starts. He altered his pitch usage and changed up his arm angle a bit at the beginning of that time. It has worked really well. In the last 2 starts, Fiers has 1 walk and 20 strikeouts. This Phillies lineup is about as bad as it gets, and Fiers is dealing.
Aaron Nola has been excellent of late as well. After a slow start to the year, Nola has allowed 2 runs or less in six straight starts. He has gone 7 innings or more in five of those six starts as well which helps avoid this Phillies bullpen.
Gorman is an umpire who helps the under some and the temperature will be moderate here.
Take the under.
|07-26-17||Red Sox -1.5 v. Mariners||4-0||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox have lost the first two games in this series. I'm not a big "bet a team trying to avoid a sweep" type of handicapper, but if there were ever a good starter to have on the mound trying to help you avoid a sweep it is Chris Sale.
Sale has 9 walks and 81 strikeouts in his last 8 starts. The guy has a 2.48 ERA and a ridiculous 1.96 FIP. He isn't getting lucky, he has just been tremendous. The Mariners are middle of the pack against lefties.
Andrew Moore has some potential for Seattle, but he isn't missing any bats right now. Moore is striking out an insane low 3.90 batters per nine innings. His ERA is 5.70 and his FIP is actually 6.58. This Red Sox lineup can be very inconsistent, but they have a ton of talent and they should get to a guy like this.
Look for Sale to be excellent here.
Take Boston -1.5.
|07-25-17||Pirates +115 v. Giants||3-11||Loss||-100||19 h 31 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 50-50 and in the NL Central race after a really nice run of late. Pittsburgh needs to play well in the next few games to encourage management not to sell at the trade deadline. The team chemistry appears to be very good, and this is a team I'm looking to back.
Pittsburgh starts Jameson Taillon here, and I definitely like this youngster. Taillon has a nice combination that very few youngsters have: he suppresses home runs in a big way, and he minimizes walks. Taillon has a 3.08 ERA and a 3.18 FIP on the year.
Madison Bumgarner's velocity is way down in his two starts since coming back from the disabled list. He's lost a couple miles per hour off the heater and that makes a big difference. Bumgarner has talked about how much discomfort he is still in, and I don't think he's the same guy on the mound right now.
The Pirates have the better bullpen by a wide margin and they have much more to play for at this point.
The Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 games played in San Francisco. They are 4-0 in Taillon's last 4 vs. the NL West. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Giants are 0-6 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts. A 21-0 angle.
|07-24-17||Braves v. Diamondbacks -1.5||2-10||Win||120||22 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Arizona Diamondbacks lineup is a dangerous one now. Peralta and Pollock are strong at the top of the order, and now Paul Goldschmitt has another very good hitter around him in the form of JD Martinez. Martinez says he believes he will play on Monday night after missing the last few games with a hand injury.
R.A. Dickey starts here for the Braves, and this Arizona lineup has hit him well in the past. They have a combined .408 on base percentage against him. Dickey is near the end of his career and other than a couple strong starts a couple outings ago, he has been bad this season.
Zack Greinke has a dazzling 2.41 ERA at home this year. Opponents have a ridiculously low .230 on base percentage against him when he pitches at Chase Field this year. After a subpar start by his standards in his last outing, I think he pitches well here. The Braves lineup has a combined .261 OBP against Greinke.
The DBacks have the bullpen edge as well.
Take Arizona -1.5.
|07-24-17||Marlins +132 v. Rangers||4-0||Win||132||20 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB DOG of the Day* The Texas Rangers rank 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Miami ranks 14th in the same category.
The Marlins have several guys who can really crush left handed pitching. Marcell Ozuna has turned into a star, and the top five in this order is very good. Miami's offense is still underrated by most people.
Adam Conley is a really inconsistent pitcher, there's no doubt about that. Conley is capable of throwing it very well and he's capable of getting shelled. Am I betting on this game because of him? No.
The Marlins have the better bullpen and they are better against lefties and we're getting a significant underdog price.
Martin Perez has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. He is consistently bad. He isn't the type of guy that should be laying -140 to -145 against a decent team.
The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. Grab the nice price on the dog.
|07-23-17||Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 9.5||2-3||Win||100||12 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Rick Porcello has been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season in his career. Porcello has a 4.59 ERA in the first half vs. a 3.76 ERA in the second half of the season.
Porcello is showing some strong signs of turning the corner. He has 0 walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts. With his improved control of late, Porcello has been able to improve his strand rate. This Angels lineup isn't very good. There isn't enough depth here.
Parker Bridwell has been decent so far this year, and the Red Sox lineup is extremely inconsistent.
One thing to keep in mind here is we have two teams who have top five bullpens and a high posted total. Vic Carrapazza is the umpire and he's one of the best under umpires in the business.
The under is 10-0-1 in the Angels last 11 vs. a right hander. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. The under is 7-0-1 in Carrapazza's last 8 Sunday games behind home plate. A 33-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-23-17||White Sox v. Royals OVER 11||4-5||Loss||-105||10 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The White Sox rank in the top five in the majors against lefties, and they aren't many lefties in the majors worse than Travis Wood. Wood has a ridiculous 1.84 WHIP so far this year. He has a 6.81 ERA on the season.
Derek Holland isn't any better. Holland has been miserable this year. In 7 of his last 16 starts, he has allowed a whopping six runs or more. When this guy is off his game, he is REALLY off his game. The Royals offense has been streaky and they have now scored 30 runs in their last three games.
A temperature in the low 90's will help the ball fly well here as well. There were six home runs hit in last night's heat in Kansas City.
Take the over.
|07-23-17||Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8.5||1-8||Loss||-120||10 h 36 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. It's hard to overstate how good he has been since coming back from an injury on June 1 against Oakland. Kluber hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a single game during that time. He has struck out 10 batters or more in seven of his nine starts since that date. He has a ridiculous 11 walks compared to 94 strikeouts during that span. Kluber has been locked in.
J.A. Happ is a slightly better than average pitcher and the Indians are a little weaker against lefties than right handed pitching. The Indians have a .194 average against Happ in 65 plate appearances. The Blue Jays bullpen has been underrated this year, and they rank in the top ten in all advanced statistical categories.
Sunday's are good under days in the majors in the long-term. In fact, Sunday is easily the best day to play unders in the past ten years. Games played in Cleveland with a total of 8.5 or higher and with the wind blowing in are 51-16 to the under (76.1%).
Take the under here.
|07-22-17||White Sox v. Royals OVER 10||2-7||Loss||-115||16 h 41 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jason Vargas has pitched well for the season as a whole, but there were signs of regression on the way for Vargas. He has had good BABIP luck and good strand rate luck as well. In his last two games, Vargas has been absolutely shelled.
In this one, Vargas must take on a White Sox offense that ranks among the top three in the majors in offensive production against left handed pitchers.
Mike Pelfrey isn't any good. I probably don't need to tell you that. Pelfrey doesn't miss bats and he is a guy who is prone to the big inning blowup. He'll face a Royals lineup here that is once again hot. They've been streaky all year long.
Mark Carlson is an umpire that lean towards the over. More importantly here, the game time temperature is set to be 100 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10 mph. You won't find better weather for an over than this.
Take the over.
|07-22-17||Rangers v. Rays -1.5||4-3||Loss||-100||16 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays -1.5* The Tampa Bay Rays start Chris Archer here, and he has been excellent this year. He has a swinging strike rate of 13.2% so far this year, which is one of the best in the majors. Archer has developed his secondary pitches a great deal in the past year.
Archer has dominated this Rangers lineup in the past. They have a miserable .206 average and a .268 wOBA against him lifetime.
The Rangers have the single worst OBP of any team in the majors on the road this year (.289). Texas has way too many guys who strike out a lot, and Archer can rack up the strikeouts.
Andrew Cashner is definitely due for regression and the Rays are a top five offense against right handed pitching.
The Rays bullpen isn't all that good, but it is definitely better than the Rangers bullpen.
Lay the run line.
Take Tampa Bay -1.5.
|07-21-17||White Sox v. Royals OVER 10.5||6-7||Win||100||18 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Royals scored 16 runs in thumping the Detroit Tigers last night. Kansas City has been a really streaky offense this year. The Royals go up against one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in James Shields.
Shields is about as bad as you'll ever see at this point in his career. Shields has allowed 8 walks and struck out only 7 in his last three outings. Shields has a 5.10 ERA, but a whopping 6.82 FIP on the year. Shields has been very fortunate not to have even worse overall numbers. He could get blown up at any point. Shields is allowing a ridiculous 2.34 homers per nine innings.
Ian Kennedy is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he has a 4.32 ERA and a 5.27 FIP on the year. Kennedy is a dangerous guy to count on at this point in his career.
A huge factor here is the gametime temperature of 95 degrees. What about the wind? It is expected to be blowing out at about 15 mph. Those factors with these fly ball pitchers makes this an over I have to play.
With the wind playing blowing out at least 6 mph and a temperature of 90 degrees or higher, the over is 21-9 in the last 30 games at Kauffman Stadium.
Take the over here.
|07-20-17||Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 10||8-6||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is inconsistent, but they have some great potential. Francisco Liriano is dealing with neck discomfort the last few days and is pitching at less than 100 percent. Even at 100 percent, Liriano has been really bad this year. He walks more than 5 guys per nine innings. He puts so many guys on base that he is always walking the tightrope.
Boston is much better against lefties than righties. The Red Sox have a .275 team batting average and a great .358 OBP against left handers this year.
Doug Fister has been awful this year. Fister has nearly as many walks as he does strikeouts. He is allowing 1.56 homers per nine innings. His ERA is 6.75 and it isn't a fluke.
While the Toronto offense has been a disappointment this year, I think they get to Fister in this one.
The wind blowing out and warm temperatures are key. In the past 10 years, with the wind blowing out and a temperature of 80 or higher, the over is cashing at a 62% clip at Fenway Park.
Take the over.
|07-20-17||Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8||2-4||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Brewers have been scuffling while the Pirates have heated up. Pittsburgh is winning lately thanks to some tremendous pitching. Both their starters and their bullpen have been amazing. The under is a whopping 22-5-1 in the Pirates last 28 games.
The Brewers offense is struggling a lot right now. Many of the young hitters who were so good for a long time this year are now in a slump. Jimmy Nelson has been pitching great though. Nelson has a whopping 52 strikeouts in his last 8 starts. He has a great track record against Pittsburgh. In 165 plate appearances against Nelson, Pittsburgh hitters have a weak .292 wOBA against him.
Jameson Taillon is a guy I like quite a bit. He doesn't walk many people and he has been great through his career at suppressing homers.
The early start here is helpful especially since last night's game went into extra innings. Don't be surprised if some key names are out of the lineup.
Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is a very good under umpire. The under is 9-2 in his games this year and his strikes called percentage is in the top 10% of all umpires.
The under is 5-0 in the Brewers last 5 games. The under is 4-0-2 in Nelson's last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0-1 in Taillon's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh. A 29-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-19-17||Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Reds||Top||3-4||Loss||-100||17 h 47 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Play Oddsmaker ERROR* The Arizona Diamondbacks got a big shot in the arm when they traded for outfielder J.D. Martinez on Tuesday night. Even if he doesn't play here (I would lean toward the fact that he will), I think that trade encourages this Diamondbacks team that the front office is serious about this season.
On the other side, the Cincinnati Reds are playing their worst baseball of the year. Cincinnati is in a serious tailspin right now. The Reds have lost five straight games, and they have lost all five of those games by 5 runs or more.
Tim Adleman has been really bad of late. He is giving up 2.14 homers per nine innings this year, and he has walked three guys or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Reds have lost 6 of his last 7 starts by two runs or more.
Zack Greinke is dialed in of late. Greinke has always done a good job feasting on weaker teams, and the DBacks are 18-3 in his last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Greinke has held the Reds to a very low .282 OBP in 103 plate appearances.
Two teams headed in different directions. A huge pitching advantage as well.
Take Arizona -1.5 big.
|07-19-17||Brewers v. Pirates -139||2-3||Win||100||26 h 37 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten Starling Marte back and that makes them a much better team. As they are right now, I believe the Pirates are at least as good of a team as the Brewers. The Pirates are likely to be sellers at the deadline, so they'll probably fall off again late in the season, but right now this is a team playing well.
The Pirates have a big pitching advantage here. Gerrit Cole had a really rough patch in May and early June, but Cole has allowed 2 runs or less in five of his last six starts. In 53 plate appearances, the Brewers have only 5 hits against Cole, so he has completely dominated them in a small sample size.
Zach Davies hasn't been good all year. Davies' swinging strike rate is way down at 7.1% this year. He has a 5.08 ERA and a 5.05 FIP. Davies has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his last seven outings. The Pirates have crushed Davies in the past too. Pittsburgh's hitters have a .367 average and an amazing .458 OBP against him in 72 plate appearances.
|07-18-17||Rays v. A's OVER 9||4-3||Loss||-110||8 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Tampa Bay Rays rank fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They face a very weak right hander in Chris Smith tonight.
Smith is a 36 year old who is a career minor league guy. He's had a couple stops in the majors, but those have been in relief, and he was never very good there. Smith has an 86 mph fastball. When your fastball is 86 in the bigs, you better have great command and some great secondary pitches. Smith has neither. Look for Tampa Bay to get a lot of scoring chances here. It's important to note that the Oakland bullpen which has been a strength of this team is much weaker after trading Doolittle and Madson.
Blake Snell has walked at least three batters in all but two games he has started this year. It is very hard to walk people at that kind of rate and be productive in the majors. Snell gets himself into too many bad spots. Snell has a poor 4.85 ERA, but his SIERA is 5.56, which suggests he has been fortunate so far this season.
Oakland has been a good over team this year partially because they have committed more errors than any other team in baseball.
Bill Welke is 34-16 to the over in his last 50 behind home plate as the umpire. He's been a solid over umpire for years.
Take the over.
|07-18-17||Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5||7-9||Loss||-112||17 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. While it will be a hot one at Coors Field, the wind will be blowing in a bit. More importantly, one of the very best under umpires in baseball is behind the plate. Ron Kulpa has a career 58% under win percentage. In a large sample size, that should tell you a lot about Kulpa.
What about high totals? The under is 50-20 in Kulpa's last 70 games with a total of 9.5 or higher. That's a little better than 71%. Kulpa will help both of these young pitchers a great deal here.
I'm never excited to play an under at Coors Field, but it is important to keep in mind that the Padres have the worst offense in baseball. Additionally, the Padres bullpen has been really good in the last month. They have some youngsters throwing the ball well right now.
The Rockies have been a good under team all year as this is a much improved bullpen in Colorado as well.
Dinelson Lamet has high strikeout upside and Antonio Senzatela has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground.
I'll take the under.
|07-17-17||Phillies +140 v. Marlins||5-6||Loss||-100||7 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Sharp Money Underdog Special* The Philadelphia Phillies are a hard team to back, but I have to back them in tonight's spot.
Tom Koehler is a terrible starting pitcher. He occasionally has come up with a gem in past years, and maybe he'll do it tonight, but if you look at all his statistics, this is not a guy who should be commanding a -150 price tag.
The Marlins are 3-15 in Koehler's last 18 starts. Koehler has allowed at least 3 runs in nine straight starts. He is allowing a whopping 2.40 homers per nine innings. His ERA stands at 8.00 and his FIP is 6.70. The guy isn't any good.
Jerod Eickhoff is a better pitcher than Koehler, and he pitched really well in his first game back from the DL last time out. Eickhoff has allowed only one run in his last 11 innings pitched.
The Phillies bullpen is a real trouble spot, so putting part of your bet on the first five Phillies price makes sense to me here.
The sharp money definitely likes this play. While only 47% of the bets are on the Phillies, a whopping 80% of the money is on Philadelphia as an underdog here.
At this price, I'm forced to take the Phillies as we fade Tom Koehler as a big favorite.
|07-16-17||Rangers -120 v. Royals||3-4||Loss||-120||17 h 13 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Texas Rangers have taken the first two games of this series. The average bettor definitely overvalues the importance of backing a team when they are trying to avoid a sweep. I've run many data queries on this, and the only time that seems to matter is when the team that is trying to avoid getting swept is much better than the other team. That isn't the case here.
The Royals went on a nice run for a while, but this is a flawed team. The offense ranks 26th out of 30 in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. In this one they face a good righty in Yu Darvish. Darvish has pitched better in the past month, and I expect a solid start here.
Ian Kennedy isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. He doesn't have the same velocity, and it definitely hurts him. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who gives up a decent amount of hard contact. The Rangers have plenty of power and this Texas team is excellent against right handed pitching. Add in the fact that the wind is blowing out with a temperature above 90 degrees and it looks like it could be a tough day for Kennedy.
I'll take the small road favorite here.
|07-16-17||Twins v. Astros -1.5||3-5||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Houston Astros have been the best and most consistent team in the majors all year long. Houston is 21-6 in their last 27 games following a loss. The Astros are coming off a loss on Saturday night to the Twins.
Minnesota has multiple factors suggesting they have been more than a little fortunate this year. They have several pitchers carrying ridiculous BABIP's, and the Twins haven't fared well against good teams. Their schedule gets tougher the rest of the year, and I expect this team to fall off the pace.
The Astros send Mike Fiers to the mound here, and he has been very good in the past couple months. The Astros have arguably the best bullpen in baseball, while the Twins have one of the worst.
Houston has the highest weighted on base average of any team in the majors. This offense is extremely deep and I see them getting to Kyle Gibson early and often here. Gibson is one of the worst starters. Gibson has an ERA nearly a full run worse after the break in his career as a whole, so I don't imagine things will get better for him anytime soon.
Take Houston -1.5.
|07-15-17||Cubs -132 v. Orioles||10-3||Win||100||21 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Cubs ML* Wade Miley started the year getting extremely fortunate. Regression has hit in a huge way for Miley of late though. Miley has a 4.97 ERA and a 5.04 FIP. He is getting behind in counts consistently, and his stuff isn't good enough to get hitters out in those situations.
The Cubs have struggled all season against right handed pitching, but they rank in the top five in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Chicago should get a lot of runners on base against a guy like Miley who walks a lot of people and gives up a bunch of hard contact.
Jake Arrieta has been up and down this year, but he faces his old team here, and I think there is a good chance the "good Jake Arrieta" shows up for this matchup.
The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs a left handed starter. They are 35-16 in Arrieta's last 51 road starts.
Take the Cubs.
|07-15-17||Cardinals v. Pirates -125||4-0||Loss||-125||16 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates are playing better baseball of late. The team has started talking about being within the range of being buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline if they can start the second half strong. They are facing a Cardinals team that is in a tailspin right now.
Mike Matheny seems to be losing this team right now as the chemistry has become a problem for the Cardinals. St. Louis has has a woeful defense all season and it has cost them multiple games.
Jameson Taillon is a guy I like a lot because he minimizes baserunners very well and he generally works from ahead in the count.
Lance Lynn is due for some major regression based on his strand rate so far this year, and Lynn is a guy who has had major success at home in his career, but on the road he has been very ordinary.
The Pirates offense has been much better of late with McCutchen and Bell red hot.
The Cardinals are 5-13 in their last 18 road games. They are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. the NL Central. The Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7.
|07-09-17||Padres v. Phillies UNDER 9||1-7||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The San Diego Padres bullpen has been a huge surprise this year. If you look at only the past month, the Padres have the single best SIERA of any bullpen in the majors. They are in the top five in all key bullpen numbers in the past month.
The Phillies bullpen has been really bad for the year, but they actually rank in the top ten in all major categories in the past month as well. Some youngsters have improved of late in the pen for this team. I still don't trust this bullpen a lot, but they are up against a terrible offense in San Diego.
How bad are these offenses? The Phillies have an awful .299 weighted on base average. The Padres are even worse at .293. These are two of the three worst marks in baseball.
Trevor Cahill has done a great job with his sinker this year. He's getting weak contact and a bunch of ground balls. Eickhoff is a pretty good youngster for the Phillies as well.
In the last game before the break and two bad teams playing- don't be surprised if there are a lot of quick outs as teams are ready to go home for their one break during the season.
Take the under.
|07-08-17||Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5||13-0||Win||100||12 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals beat the Atlanta Braves in 10 innings last night. These are two bullpens that are among the worst in the majors. Washington has one of the five worst bullpens in baseball. The Braves are one of the bottom ten bullpens in baseball.
Julio Teheran hasn't been right this year. Teheran has pitched a bit better of late, but that was again inferior competition. Now, he'll take on a Nationals lineup that has been tearing the cover off the ball against right handers all year.
Teheran's walk rate is up drastically from a year ago, and he has been really bad against this Nats lineup in the past. How bad? The Nationals have a .403 OBP and a whopping .445 wOBA (14 home runs) against Teheran.
Stephen Strasburg is obviously very good, but the Braves have given him trouble. They have a good lineup now with Freeman healthy again. Strasburg has allowed a .340 OBP and a .373 wOBA to the Braves. He's been particularly bad against them at home. The over is 36-16-4 in Strasburg's last 56 home starts overall, and he gets great run support in general.
The temperature in the high 80's helps here as well.
The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the Braves. The over is 4-0-1 in Teheran's last 5 starts vs. the Nationals. The over is 6-0 in home plate umpire Jordan Baker's last 6 games behind the dish. A combined 14-0 trend.
Take the over.
|07-07-17||Marlins -109 v. Giants||Top||6-1||Win||100||19 h 38 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB Moneyline GAME of the WEEK* The San Francisco Giants are coming off a six game road trip and this is their first game back home. San Francisco has a long history of having trouble in the first game back home after a long road trip. Most recently, they have lost four straight games in that spot.
Matt Moore starts here for the Giants. Moore has been giving up a tremendous amount of hard contact. His hard hit rate sits at 39.9%, which is among the worst marks in the majors.
Miami is very good against left handed pitching. The Marlins have a great .336 OBP against lefties this year. The guys in this Marlins lineup have a long history of torching Matt Moore as well. In 85 plate appearances against him, this Marlins lineup has a stellar .372 average and a .404 OBP.
Dan Straily is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and you won't find a better ballpark for extreme fly ball pitchers than AT&T Park in San Francisco. Straily has a decent swinging strike rate, and he is facing a Giants lineup with a miserable .299 OBP against right handed pitching on the season.
The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the NL East. The Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 40% or lower win percentage. They are 4-0 in Straily's last 4 starts. An 18-0 angle.
Take Miami big.
|07-07-17||White Sox v. Rockies -1.5||4-12||Win||120||18 h 38 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Colorado Rockies should knock Derek Holland all over the place on Friday night at Coors Field. Holland has been awful on the road this year, and you won't get a worse place to pitch than Coors Field.
Holland has allowed 5 runs or more in four of his last six starts. He's allowed 7 runs or more four times already this year. He has tons of blowup potential, and the Rockies are elite against left handed pitching.
German Marquez has pretty good stuff, and overall I've been impressed with him this year. The White Sox rank in the bottom five teams in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The White Sox will get their runs here in Coors Field, but I don't see them keeping up with the Rockies against Holland.
Take Colorado -1.5.
|07-06-17||Braves v. Nationals OVER 9||5-2||Loss||-115||18 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are on fire of late. This is a deep lineup that has a lot of run producers.
Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a start where he had a no hitter through 8 innings, but remember this is a guy with a FIP, SIERA, and xFIP all above 4.5. He has had several clunkers this year, and this could easily be another.
Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 2.77 ERA, but a FIP and xFIP of 4.19 and 4.30. Also, Gonzalez has a terrible track record against the Braves. This Atlanta lineup has a .384 OBP and a .385 wOBA against him.
The weather is favorable here with winds blowing out at 8 mph.
Both of these bullpens are completely unreliable. Washington is without Glover now and he was their most reliable guy. Atlanta has no bullpen depth either.
Take the over in this one.
|07-06-17||Braves +152 v. Nationals||5-2||Win||152||7 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Sharp Money Side* I have to take a chance with the Braves at this price. The implied odds here are less than 40% chance of Atlanta winning, and I think that is too low.
Trea Turner is out for Washington and that's a big loss. Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover are both out from the bullpen, and this bullpen was terrible even before those injuries.
Freddie Freeman is back in the lineup for Atlanta, and he's the best hitter on this team. Gio Gonzalez has terrible numbers against Atlanta in his career. How bad? The Braves have a .326 average and a .393 OBP against him in 163 plate appearances.
A couple strong betting percentage trends back this play in a big way.
-This year underdogs between +101 and +160 are 98-90 (+17% ROI) when there is reverse line movement and they are receiving 37% or less of the bets. The Braves are getting only 24% of the bets from the public here.
The Braves are getting only 24% and 64% of the money which makes this fit nicely into the sharp play category. There was a reverse line move on Atlanta at CRIS (very sharp book) and a steam move at Pinnacle (the sharpest book there is).
In the long term, these sharp plays will end up in the plus. We'll take the Braves at a big plus money price.
|07-06-17||Red Sox -1.5 v. Rays||1-4||Loss||-100||15 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Boston -1.5* The Boston Red Sox let me down last night in Texas with a poor effort against Texas and Andrew Cashner, but this is a very good offense. Boston had been crushing the baseball for many games in a row before last night. This is a deep lineup that will give most pitchers trouble.
Faria is a good young pitcher for the Rays, but this will be the best lineup he has gone against. The Rays bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen and I see Boston having a real chance to add some runs late in this game.
Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. Sale is averaging 12.38 strikeouts per nine innings. Tampa Bay is averaging the second highest strikeout percentage of any team in the majors against lefties this year. Sale has dominated this lineup in the past and he should again here.
Take Boston -1.5.
|07-06-17||Astros -1.5 v. Blue Jays||4-7||Loss||-100||16 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB MAJOR Mismatch* The Houston Astros start Lance McCullers here. McCullers is a tremendous young pitcher with a very high upside. The key to his improvement this year has been his improved control. He's cut his walk rate almost in half from last year.
McCullers has an elite curveball. It is one of the three or four best curveballs in the majors. Toronto rates as the second worst team in the majors against the curveball (the Padres are the worst). McCullers matches up favorably against this team.
Houston ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Astros are averaging a ridiculous 6.91 runs per game on the road this year. Yes, you read that right. No wonder they are 31-9 on the road.
Francisco Liriano isn't getting as many swinging strikes as in the past, and Houston strikes out less than any other team against lefties. I think Houston gets to Liriano in a big way here.
Take Houston -1.5.
|07-06-17||MIAMI v. ST. LOUIS -1.5||3-4||Loss||-100||11 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Run Line Value* The St. Louis Cardinals have a good offense. This is a team that should punish really bad pitchers. Tom Koehler is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. Koehler has been atrocious on the road in his career, and the Cardinals have a .431 OBP against him in 51 plate appearances.
Michael Wacha has held the Marlins to a .262 OBP in his career. Wacha is much better at home, and he's backed by a solid bullpen. The Marlins bullpen has been a major weakness throughout the course of the season.
The Marlins are a miserable 3-14 in Koehler's last 17 starts. The Cardinals are 22-8 in Wacha's last 30 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Take St. Louis -1.5.
|07-05-17||Red Sox +101 v. Rangers||2-8||Loss||-100||18 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox are on fire right now. Boston has scored 6 runs or more in all of their last six games. They have scored 7 runs or more in each of their last five games.
The Red Sox are healthy now, and this is one of the deepest lineups in all of baseball. Boston has a couple really streaky hitters in Hanley Ramirez and Jackie Bradley Jr. and both of them are on fire right now. Seeing Andrew Benintendi join the party last night was encouraging for Boston fans as well.
Andrew Cashner is coming off an injury and he isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. Cashner has a SIERA of nearly 6 on the season, and he has walked almost as many guys as he has struck out. He isn't likely to slow this Boston offense, and the Rangers bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.
Doug Fister isn't a strong pitcher at this stage of his career either, but the Boston offense has an advantage over the Texas offense, and the Red Sox bullpen is one of the top five in the majors.
Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall. Texas is 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two. A 25-0 angle.
|07-05-17||Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 11||Top||2-8||Loss||-115||18 h 53 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston has scored 7 runs or more in each of their last five games. This is a scary lineup when healthy, and they are healthy now.
The Texas Rangers have scored 31 runs in their last five games, so the Rangers offense has been very good of late as well.
This is the time of the year where the ball flies very well in Texas. The heat is really helpful and this is a great hitter-friendly park in July and August.
Both of these pitchers are guys I would expect to get hit hard here. Andrew Cashner has a SIERA of almost 6, and this Boston offense is likely to torch him. Doug Fister has a career ERA of 8.59 when pitching at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
In the Rangers last 9 home games, 7 of those games have finished at 12 runs or higher. Not many of them have had worse pitching matchups.
We draw a guy who is a decent over umpire here in Bruce Dreckman as well. He rates in the top 30% of over umpires according to my umpire spreadsheet.
The over is 5-0 in the Rangers last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 22-0 angle.
Take the over big.
|07-04-17||Padres v. Indians UNDER 8.5||1-0||Win||100||16 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Corey Kluber has been absolutely dominating hitters of late. Kluber's domination has been mind boggling. He has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last four starts. In that span, he has 46 strikeouts and only 4 walks. You don't get much better than that.
In this one, Kluber faces a Padres lineup that is worse than any lineup he has faced this year. He should make quick work of this lineup. San Diego strikes out a bunch, and Kluber is clearly on his strikeout game of late.
Trevor Cahill starts for San Diego and he's been good this year. His advanced statistics suggest his low ERA is no fluke. He does a good job getting soft contact and getting batters to hit the ball on the ground.
The wind is blowing in at 10 mph here, and that's a nice bonus.
Take the under.
|07-04-17||White Sox v. A's -1.5||6-7||Loss||-100||13 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Oakland -1.5* The Oakland A's have been cold lately, but I see this as a great chance for them to bust out of their slump. The A's are always a good team at home because no one can get very excited to go to Oakland to take on a team that isn't very good. This leads to undervalued spots for an Oakland team that isn't good, but they are now more competitive than they were in the past (increased power hitting).
Oakland hits for some good power against right handed pitching. That's good news for this one as James Shields starts against them. Shields has been downright awful the last two years. He has a 3.98 ERA, but his FIP is an astounding 6.27. Shields has a completely unsustainable 86.4% strand rate. Shields is allowing 1.99 homers per nine innings, and these Oakland lefties are in a good spot to go deep here. The A's lineup has a tremendous .401 weighted on base average against Shields. In just 96 plate appearances, they have 8 homers off Shields.
Daniel Gossett starts here for the A's, and he's a youngster with a pretty high upside. The White Sox are 28th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching and Avisail Garcia is questionable here. He's been the Sox best hitter this year.
Take Oakland -1.5.
|07-04-17||Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5||4-11||Loss||-110||8 h 22 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* This is a very early start time. These two teams aren't accustomed to this kind of start time, and I think that helps the under. Why? Anything that throws off the body clock is generally good for the under in every sport. I don't think baseball is any different. The players go through the motions in these spots more often than normal and we see quick at bats.
The other main reason for the under here is the lineups are going to look a lot different than normal. Yoenis Cespedes is out with an injury here. Michael Conforto is out with an injury. Granderson is questionable.
Trea Turner is a big loss for the Nats and I think other Nats may sit here. The Nationals played Sunday night baseball and then traveled late. They played last night and now play an 11 am eastern game. This is a classic sit some starters spot.
Seth Lugo has been pretty good this year and Joe Ross has added a decent changeup to his arsenal in his last few outings.
Given what the lineups will look like, I think this total is at least a full run too high.
Take the under.
|07-03-17||Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 9||3-6||Push||0||17 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Monday Night MONEY* The New York Yankees offense is very good, but they are pretty hobbled right now. Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird are all out of the lineup.
The Toronto Blue Jays lineup has lots of potential, but they have struggled to put it together in key situations this year.
Masahiro Tanaka is an inconsistent pitcher, but he is showing some very positive signs in recent outings. After allowing a rash of homers for a while, Tanaka hasn't allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. He has 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. He has a 5.56 ERA, but his xFIP is 3.90 and Tanaka seems to have improved command inside the zone in his last few starts.
Marcus Stroman has been very good this year. Stroman has an impressive 10.4% swinging strike rate.
Stroman and Tanaka have both been great against their opponent in this one. The Yankees hitters have a miserable .238 OBP and a .245 weighted on base average against Stroman. The Blue Jays hitters have an even worse .218 OBP and a .233 wOBA against Tanaka.
The wind is blowing in a little here, and we have two very good bullpens.
The under is 9-1 in Tanaka's last 10 vs. Toronto. The under is 5-1 in Stroman's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees.
Take the under.
|07-02-17||Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5||7-2||Loss||-110||17 h 10 m||Show|
*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball Red Hot CASH* Max Scherzer has been absolutely amazing of late. How good? Scherzer has allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 in any of those starts.
Scherzer has only 8 walks in his last seven starts. In that same span, Scherzer has 75 strikeouts. He is just blowing people away on a consistent basis.
Carlos Martinez has gotten much better as a starter in the last year. Martinez has developed his secondary pitches nicely, and he is turning into a viable ace for this Cardinals team.
Both of these offenses are good, but they are both inconsistent. The Nationals will miss Trea Turner at the top of the lineup as well.
St. Louis has struggled with runners in scoring position most of the year, and Scherzer has been able to buckle down in those spots throughout his career.
Take the under here.
|07-02-17||Rays -101 v. Orioles||1-7||Loss||-101||11 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Alex Cobb has been much better in his last few outings. Cobb has allowed only 5 earned runs in his last four starts combined. Cobb has a FIP of 3.59 or lower in each of those individual games.
He has induced more soft contact of late, and Cobb is working from ahead in the count. Cobb has been good at limiting homers throughout his career, and that is key to this handicap.
Kevin Gausman has potential, and it won't surprise me if he turns it around in the future, but he has been really bad this year. Gausman has a mind boggling 19 walks in his last six outings. To say he's been putting himself in bad positions frequently is a major understatement.
Gausman allowed a relatively high 1.4 homers per nine innings last year and is allowing an even higher 1.47 homers per nine innings this year.
Cobb has a stellar 2.00 ERA in nine outings against Baltimore in his career. Cobb also has a 2.93 ERA in day games in his career.
Take Tampa Bay.
|07-02-17||Phillies +146 v. Mets||7-1||Win||146||10 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The Philadelphia Phillies aren't a good team, but they are playing much better in recent weeks than they were earlier in the season. Philadelphia has won four of their last nine games, and three of their losses in that span were one run losses.
The New York Mets aren't a very good team, and for them to be laying this kind of price here with Rafael Montero on the mound is too much. Montero had a 7.20 ERA in Triple A last year and a 8.05 ERA in the majors. He's been somewhat better this year, but his walk rate is still extremely high, and that's a major concern for the Mets.
Nick Pivetta dazzled in Triple A earlier this year and he has shown flashes of brilliance at times in the bigs this year. He has been inconsistent, but this Mets offense is overrated right now, and Pivetta certainly stands a chance here.
These odds imply a 40% chance of a Phillies win, and that's too low given the Mets pitching here and the Phillies improved play of late.
|07-02-17||Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5||6-2||Loss||-100||10 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Tim Adleman hasn't been sharp at all of late. Adleman has walked 13 batters in his last four starts. He has also allowed 7 home runs in those last four starts. He's been fortunate to not allow even more runs than he has of late. The bottom line though: if you continually walk guys and give up hard contact and the long ball at a high rate, you won't have much success in this league.
While the Cubs haven't been consistent on offense this year, they do have a lot of power and that could be a problem for Adleman on Sunday.
Jake Arrieta has been disappointing this year. Arrieta is struggling to locate his pitches right now. The Reds lineup isn't tremendous, but they are much better than expected and Joey Votto is on fire in the middle of the order right now.
John Tumpane is a tremendous over umpire and he's behind the dish here. Winds out at about 10 mph and 87 degrees in Cincinnati means the ball will fly very well.
Take the over.
|07-01-17||Rays +117 v. Orioles||10-3||Win||117||15 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB UNDERDOG Special* The Tampa Bay Rays are fourth in the majors with 123 home runs this year. Tampa Bay is also fifth in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.
Dylan Bundy is a guy I'm not high on right now. Bundy's hard contact percentage is 34.9% this year versus only 28% last year. He's groundball/fly ball rate is only 0.70. Bundy is giving up hard contact and a bunch of fly balls. After allowing zero homers in his first four starts, he's allowed 15 home runs in his last 12 starts.
The conditions will make home runs much more likely here. It is expected to be 90 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10-12 mph for this game. Tampa Bay is a dangerous opponent for Bundy in these conditions.
I'm not necessarily all that high on Jake Odorizzi, but the Orioles offense is 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Orioles also rank third in the majors in BABIP with RISP, so the Orioles have been very lucky on offense this year. Baltimore is without Chris Davis and J.J. Hardy.
I like the plus money price here.
Take Tampa Bay.
|06-30-17||Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres||10-4||Win||100||18 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Alex Wood in this one, and it would be hard to overstate how good he has been this year. Wood has more dominant numbers than Clayton Kershaw this year. Is he better? Of course not. Still, Wood's advanced metrics all suggest his breakout is no fluke.
Wood has a 1.86 ERA and a 2.12 FIP this season. He has a ridiculous swinging strike rate of 12.9%. Only 23.6% of batted balls have been hit hard against him.
There's no reason to expect San Diego to have success here. They are easily the worst team in the majors against lefties with a .218 average and a wOBA that is 13 points lower than the second worst team in the majors.
Clayton Richard has been bombed by the Dodgers in the past. The Dodgers hitters have a .412 OBP in a 68 plate appearances.
I'm hesitant to lay this kind of juice on the run line in most spots, but the Dodgers are way better in every aspect of the game. I think this one is a comfortable Dodgers win.
Take Los Angeles -1.5.
|06-30-17||Rays -122 v. Orioles||6-4||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Chris Tillman has been awful of late. How bad? He's allowed five runs or more in six straight starts. If your starter is allowing that many runs, you are in some serious trouble.
Couple that with the fact that the Orioles bullpen has the single worst FIP in the majors in the past 30 days, and you have a dangerous game for Baltimore. Tillman's velocity is down and his mechanics have been terrible so far this year. He has to prove something to me before I can stop wanting to go against him.
Jacob Faria starts for the Rays. He has had a great strikeout/walk ratio through the minors and he now has 29 strikeouts and 5 walks in the majors. He has allowed only 2 homers in four starts. He's a pretty good young pitcher.
The Rays are 5th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Orioles are 19th. The Rays are 7th in overall wOBA in the past month. The Orioles are 22nd.
I'll back the team with the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much deeper lineup.
Take Tampa Bay.
|06-29-17||Braves v. Padres UNDER 8.5||0-6||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres are hitting a miserable .213 against lefties this year. That's easily the worst mark in the league. The Padres have a weighted on base average against lefties of only .277. The second worst mark in the majors is .291.
Jaime Garcia isn't a great lefty, but he shouldn't have to be great against San Diego to have a good outing here. Garcia has a 4.03 ERA on the year, and he's coming off a bad start, but his soft contact percentage is up this year and overall he's had a decent season.
Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. This is a guy with multiple plus pitches, and he's going to strike out a bunch of batters in his career. Lamet is a perfect fit for this park too. He gives up a lot of fly balls, but that's a big plus at a park like this one.
The Braves rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching, so this is a favorable matchup for Lamet.
Take the under here.
|06-29-17||Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10||3-6||Loss||-105||16 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins start Kyle Gibson here. Gibson has an awful 6.23 ERA on the year. His FIP is 5.60 and his SIERA is 5.39. Gibson is giving up a ton of hard contact (38.2%). He's walking 4.57 batters per nine innings, and he's allowing 1.52 homers per nine. He's capable of once in a while throwing a gem, but he is usually really bad.
David Price has had a finger injury. Price is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings this year, which is easily the highest of his career. Price has a 4.76 ERA and a 5.70 FIP so far this year. He hasn't been himself, and this Twins lineup has several very good hitters in the middle of the order.
The weather is a big factor in this play for me. The temperature will be 75 degrees and the winds are blowing out toward left field at 15 mph or higher through this game. When the temperature is 72 degrees or higher and winds are blowing out to center or left at Fenway, the over is 72-41 in the last 113 contests (64% over).
The over is 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts vs. the AL East. The over is a whopping 11-0 in Price's last 11 starts following a quality start in his last outing. A 15-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-28-17||Rays v. Pirates OVER 8.5||2-6||Loss||-100||17 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have been amazing against right handed pitching this year. The Rays are fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching and they are first in the majors in ISO against righties. Tampa Bay faces an average right handed starter here in Ivan Nova. Nova doesn't walk anyone, but he also doesn't strike hardly anyone out (less than six per nine innings this year).
John Tumpane is the umpire here, and he's one of the better over umpires in baseball. Tumpane has a small strike zone and I think that hurts Tampa Bay's Blake Snell a good amount here. Snell has always had trouble finding the strike zone, and Tumpane won't make it easy on him. Snell has walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in his big league career, and his minor league walk numbers aren't much better.
The over is 5-0 in Snell's last 5 starts. The over is 59-29-2 in the Rays last 90 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 11-2-1 in the Pirates last 14 interleague home games.
Take the over.
|06-27-17||Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 9||3-4||Win||100||21 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox are hitting a miserable .245 against right handed pitching this year. The Yankees have been tremendous against righties, but they are hitting an ugly .242 against lefties.
Luis Severino is a good young right hander for the Yankees. Severino has a 3.30 ERA and a 3.17 xFIP. He's backed by a Yankees bullpen that is back intact with Chapman healthy once again. This is clearly one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Jose Quintana pitched into some really bad luck early this year, but he has four good starts in a row. Quintana has proven himself as a good pitcher in the last few seasons, and right now the oddsmakers are still too low on him. The White Sox have one of the top ten bullpens in baseball as well.
The early sharp money is clearly on the under here. I agree and we have a decent umpire in Wolf and moderate weather with light wind here.
Take the under.
|06-27-17||Yankees v. White Sox +1.5||3-4||Win||100||18 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The New York Yankees aren't playing well right now. They've been especially bad on the road, and against left handed pitching. They are on the road here, and they are against a good lefty in Jose Quintana.
The Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 15th against left handed pitching.
New York is 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 road games.
The White Sox start Jose Quintana, and 8 of his last 11 starts have been very good. He was the sharpest he has been all year in his last start. He shut out the Twins and walked none while striking out 9.
Luis Severino is a good right hander for the Yankees, but he has pitched worse in recent games than he did early in the season. The Yankees are 1-8 in Severino's last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
I generally don't take the +1.5 line, but in a game I think should be low scoring and laying minimal juice, I think it has value here. If you want to bet half on the +1.5 and half on the ML, I think that's a good plan as well.
Take the White Sox +1.5.
|06-27-17||A's v. Astros UNDER 9||6-4||Loss||-100||7 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros start Mike Fiers here. Fiers was terrible at the start of the season, but he has been amazing of late. In Fiers' last three starts, he has thrown just over 20 innings, and he has given up only 10 hits during that span. In his last five starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in each outing.
What's behind Fiers improvement? He is getting more ground balls (giving up less homers obviously) and getting soft contact. His hard contact rate is only 27.9% compared to 35.3% a year ago.
The A's offense is hitting only .246 against Fiers as a unit. Oakland strikes out a lot and Fiers strikes 7.73 batters per nine innings.
Sean Manaea is a young guy I'm very high on. Manaea has excellent stuff, and as long as he has his control I like his chances of slowing down Houston here. The Astros are hitting only .171 against him in a career 122 plate appearances.
The under got a reverse line movement trigger at Pinnacle earlier today, and there has been some clear sharp support for the under at the key level of 9.
Take the under.
|06-26-17||Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5||1-4||Win||100||21 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox offense has been really streaky so far this year. Boston has scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 10 games. The Red Sox are struggling to string together hits on a consistent basis.
Jose Berrios has a magnificent curveball, and I think he can keep the Red Sox bats honest here if he stays in his current form. Berrios is giving up hard contact on only 22.8% of batted balls, and that's a tremendous figure. He hasn't given up more than 4 runs in a game this year, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his 8 starts.
Chris Sale has been the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball this year. The Twins have a good offense, but it isn't elite. Sale has a 2.85 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 2.63 and his FIP is only 1.97. If anything, he's been unlucky.
The temperature won't be very hot at Fenway here, which means less carry for the ball.
The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in Berrios' last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. A 30-0 angle.
Take the under.
|06-25-17||Mets +131 v. Giants||8-2||Win||131||15 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB DOG of the DAY* The New York Mets won the first two games in this series. I was on them in each of those games, and at this price I have to go back to the Mets again here.
Rafael Montero hasn't proven himself in the majors, and there's certainly a chance he'll get hit hard here, but the Giants have been very good at making mediocre pitchers look great this year. Montero walks a bunch of guys, but the Giants are 24th in the majors in walk rate.
Matt Moore is allowing 39% of batted balls to be hit hard. That's a really high hard hit rate, and Moore hasn't been very good regardless of where he pitches this year.
This is a pure price play for me. Why should the Giants be laying this much against anyone right now? The Giants are 5-20 in their last 25 games. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter.
Take the Mets.
|06-25-17||Orioles v. Rays OVER 9.5||8-5||Win||105||11 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been tremendous against right handed pitching this year. This Rays team has a ton of power, and they can rack up the homers in a hurry.
Chris Tillman is throwing the ball as bad as any pitcher in the majors coming into this game. Tillman has allowed a minimum of 5 runs in each of his last 5 starts. His velocity is down and Tillman isn't fooling anyone right now. He has changed his arm slot around and it appears he may still be having shoulder problems.
Jake Odorizzi has an ERA of 3.78, but a FIP of 5.34 so far this year. He has a low BABIP of .238, which should regress to the mean. Odorizzi has a home run problem this year, and the Orioles are another team that can smash a bunch of homers.
These are two of the five worst bullpens in the majors right now, and I expect scoring chances late here.
The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in Tillman's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 9-0 in the Rays last 9 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 11-0 in the Rays last 11 games played on turf. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 51-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-24-17||Tigers v. Padres +101||3-7||Win||101||23 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Detroit Tigers have been pure fade material of late. Detroit has arguably the worst bullpen in baseball, and now they are starting one of the very worst starting pitchers in baseball for this one in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has been in the bullpen getting bashed most of the year. His hard contact allowed percentage is a ridiculously high 42.7%. If that isn't bad enough, Sanchez's control has become a major problem (and that poor control in and out of the zone leads to those hard hit balls obviously).
Dinelson Lamet is a guy with a high upside for San Diego. He has great strikeout potential. Lamet has punched out more than 10 batters per nine innings at a consistent rate throughout multiple levels of baseball. This Tigers lineup will be without a key hitter in Victor Martinez. Detroit loses a bat also from the NL rules, and Detroit is a team playing with no confidence right now.
The Padres are 18-18 at home this year, and while they aren't a good team, they play hard. They're up against a terrible pitching combination of Sanchez and the Tigers pen here.
Take San Diego.
|06-24-17||Mets +100 v. Giants||5-2||Win||100||17 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Mets won big as an underdog on Friday night. I see value on them again Saturday.
San Francisco arrived in the middle of the night after their game against Atlanta on Thursday night. The Giants flew home to San Francisco, and they got a short night of sleep. That was following a long road trip of eight games. Often former players say the second game back from a long trip in a different time zone is even tougher than the first as they try to adjust. This still isn't a good spot for the Giants.
Johnny Cueto is giving up way more hard contact this year, and he's paying for it. Cueto has a 4.42 ERA and a 4.44 FIP on the season. He's giving up the long ball far more often than he has in the past.
Jacob Degrom has had some bad luck this year. Degrom has an amazing swinging strike rate of 14.4%, so he's fooling a lot of batters. He has been spectacular in his last couple games. Degrom has allowed one run in his last 17 innings pitched.
Degrom is 16-4 in his career in day games. He has a spectacular 1.71 ERA in those games.
Take the New York Mets.
|06-24-17||Reds v. Nationals OVER 9.5||3-18||Win||100||16 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* I have to play the over here. Homer Bailey is making his first big league start after a major injury, and I don't think he'll pitch deep into the game. The Reds bullpen is gassed right now, and they have 5.47 FIP in the last two weeks.
Joe Ross starts for the Nationals. He's really inconsistent and he usually doesn't pitch deep into the game either. The Nationals have a 5.34 FIP in the last two week.
These are definitely two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and they should be in the game for quite a few innings.
The Reds offense has been underrated this year, and the Nationals offense has been the most consistent in the NL.
Paul Emmel is the umpire behind the plate. The over is 8-5 in his games this year. The over was 14-13 in his games last year. The over was 18-14 in his games in 2015. The over was 18-10 in his games behind the plate in 2014. Some impressive consistency to the over from him.
A 91 degree temperature at gametime is helpful here as well.
The over is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in the Nationals last 4 home games. The over is 7-0-1 in Ross' last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Ross' last 4 starts following a quality start. A 20-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-23-17||Mets +121 v. Giants||11-4||Win||121||9 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The San Francisco Giants don't deserve to be this big of a favorite over anyone right now. The Giants played past midnight in Atlanta last night. They lost that game 12-11 and then took a red eye flight home to San Francisco. No doubt it was a long night for the Giants.
This Giants team isn't accustomed to losing so many games, and they aren't going to have anything to play for down the stretch this year. That could create opportunities going against them when they are favored.
The Mets were in Los Angeles playing the Dodgers, and they are the much more rested team going into this game.
Ty Blach is a pitch to contact guy. He's striking out only 4 batters per nine innings. Seth Lugo has a higher upside than Blach. I do worry about the Mets bullpen here, but this price is too good to pass up.
The Giants are 2-6 in their last 8 home games after a road trip of 7 days or more. The Giants are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 8-1 in Lugo's last 9 starts.
Take the Mets.
|06-23-17||Blue Jays -121 v. Royals||4-5||Loss||-121||26 h 59 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB TGIF Bookie CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays go to Kansas City on Friday night. I like the matchup for Toronto here.
Jakob Junis has been really shaky so far this year for the Royals. Junis is a fly ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of hard contact. His hard contact rate is 46.7% which is about as bad as you'll ever see. Batters are really barreling up against him.
J.A. Happ has been much better in his last couple starts. After having some control issues when he came back from the DL, Happ has a combined 1 walk and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. His ERA is 4.26, but his xFIP is 3.12.
The Blue Jays have the better bullpen here as well. No doubt they have the better lineup also.
Kansas City is 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a left handed starter. The Blue Jays are 21-8 in Happ's last 29 starts.
|06-22-17||Cubs -122 v. Marlins||Top||11-1||Win||100||16 h 9 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB Moneyline GAME of the MONTH* The Chicago Cubs have certainly been a disappointment this year. I still believe the Cubs will hit their stride, and I think they are finally starting to be underpriced.
This was a game I had circled for the last couple days. It was always going to be a play, but the price made this a five star top play. This is a terrific price on the Cubs against a pitcher like Jeff Locke.
Locke has been a subpar lefty his whole career, and though his numbers are a bit better so far this year, I consider him a good fade until he proves it for a length of time. Locke walked 4 Cubs in 4 and 2/3 innings earlier this year. He allowed 4 runs in that game.
Locke faces a Cubs lineup that has struggled against right handed pitching, but they have been very good against lefties. The Cubs are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They are first in the majors in ISO against lefties. They walk more than any other team in the majors against lefties, and Locke has had command issues in his career.
Jake Arrieta hasn't been very good this year, but he has shown signs of turning the corner of late. He hasn't allowed more than 5 hits in any of his last six starts. His velocity is starting to come back up.
The Marlins are elite against lefties, but they are only mediocre against right handed pitching. Miami has a .318 OBP against right handed pitching and a .343 OBP against lefties.
Finally, in a large sample size, the Cubs have absolutely beaten up Jeff Locke in the past. In 142 plate appearances, the Cubs have a .453 weighted on base average and a .349 average.
This price is too cheap for a team with the upside of the Cubs against a pitcher like Jeff Locke.
Take the Chicago Cubs big.
|06-22-17||Angels v. Yankees -1.5||10-5||Loss||-115||16 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees start Luis Severino here. I don't think Severino has gotten enough credit for how well he has pitched this year. Severino has been consistent and tremendous.
Severino has a 2.99 ERA and a 3.14 xFIP. He ranks in the top 10 or 15 starting pitchers in many key categories including both of these. He is sporting an amazing 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Most hard throwers who miss bats allow a lot of hard contact, but only 28% of batted balls off Severino have been of the hard contact variety. Severino has allowed more than 2 runs in only four of his 13 starts this year.
The Angels rank dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching when Mike Trout is out of the lineup. This isn't a good offense.
Jesse Chavez starts here and he's giving up more hard contact than he ever has before in his career. Chavez has an ERA over 6 on the road, and he's prone to the long ball. The ball is carrying well at Yankee Stadium now, and I think Chavez has a real chance of getting lit up in this one.
Take New York -1.5.
|06-22-17||Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 9||2-4||Win||100||11 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates battle on Thursday afternoon.
Chase Anderson has been really good of late for Milwaukee. Anderson is a streaky pitcher, and right now he is in the zone. Anderson has a 2.92 ERA and a 3.38 FIP. He has been getting a lot of pop ups of late, so hitters aren't squaring up on his pitches very often.
Anderson is at his best at home, and during the daytime. Anderson has a 2.03 ERA at home this year (3.61 in his career). He has a 3.36 career ERA in day games, and this year that number is 2.68. He's made nine starts this year under a retractable roof being closed (Miller Park's roof will likely be closed due to hot temperatures and rain chances here), and in those 9 games he has a 1.73 ERA.
Ivan Nova pitches to contact, but I love the fact that he virtually never walks anyone. That generally helps him limit damage.
Dan Bellino is the umpire here, and only one game he has called has gone over the total this year. In his career 55.5% of his games have stayed under.
It's a get away day game and some of the better hitters might sit this one out.
Take the under.
|06-21-17||Tigers v. Mariners -125||5-7||Win||100||28 h 56 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander on Wednesday night.
Verlander has been really bad this year. His 4.50 ERA doesn't even tell the whole picture of how bad he has been. His hard contact percentage is 10% higher than last year and is the highest of his career. Batters are barreling up on him very often. His SIERA is 5.02. Verlander has had issues with control in recent starts as well.
The Mariners start James Paxton. Paxton was amazing early in the season, but he has been shaky of late. If he was in better form, this would have been a 5 star play, but I do still like it a good amount. Paxton goes back home to a pitcher-friendly park and faces a Tigers team without a key contributor in Victor Martinez.
The Tigers bullpen is one of the two or three worst in the majors. Seattle's bullpen is at least as good as the league average and some stats make them a little better than average.
The Mariners have a lot of value at this price.
|06-21-17||Mets v. Dodgers -1.5||2-8||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on LA Dodgers -1.5* Tyler Pill makes a start here against the red hot Dodgers bats. I don't think it will go well for him. Just last year, Pill was in Double A and wasn't even considered much of a prospect. He struck out only 4.22 batters per nine innings at Triple A this season. He had a 4.13 FIP and a 5.09 xFIP at Triple A.
The Dodgers are hottest lineup in the National League, and they have been the best lineup against right handed pitching in the NL so far this season. The Dodgers have scored 40 runs in their last 4 games. I don't think a guy with limited stuff like Pill is a good fit to slow them down. The Mets bullpen is overworked of late, and they aren't very good anyways.
The Mets aren't good against lefties, and while Rich Hill has been mediocre this year I think he'll be decent enough here. The Dodgers bullpen is excellent, and that's a major advantage for them here.
Take the LA Dodgers -1.5.
|06-21-17||Pirates +113 v. Brewers||3-4||Loss||-100||26 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pirates start Trevor Williams here. He is a decent prospect who has pitched better in recent outings. Williams started out very poorly in the bigs, but improved control has made a big difference for him of late.
Junior Guerra starts for the Brewers here. He has had awful control of late. Guerra has a 2.84 ERA and a 6.06 FIP. He is in line for some serious regression. In his last five starts, he has at least 3 walks in each of them. He has walked four guys in each of his last two outings. That isn't a recipe for success in the long run.
The Brewers offense is still pretty good, but they do miss Ryan Braun. The Pirates are finally getting healthy and with Polanco contributing on offense now I do expect improved numbers from Pittsburgh moving forward.
Fading a pitcher favored who has major control problems is a strategy I've used successfully in the past. I'm taking the Pirates here plus the money.
|06-21-17||Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 11||7-5||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Tyson Ross and Joe Biagini are the starters in this one Wednesday night in Texas.
Ross is a guy who walks a ton of batters, and that usually comes back to bite you in a park like this, especially against a good offense. Ross walked 5.30 batters per nine innings in four Triple A starts this year. He had a 7.71 ERA and 6.71 FIP in the minors. He pitched well in his first big league start, but I think he'll have a tough time against this deep Blue Jays lineup. He doesn't pitch deep in the game and the Rangers bullpen isn't good at all.
Biagini has had declining velocity in his last few starts, and he's been prone to blowups on occasion. Pitching in Texas in 90 degree heat and against a lineup that is very good against right handed pitching is a tough matchup for him.
Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and over umpires don't come much better than Holbrook. The over has hit 55.6% of the time in his games behind home plate in his career.
Take the over.
|06-20-17||Astros v. A's +108||8-4||Loss||-100||20 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's are a sneaky good home team. The A's are 22-14 at home this year. They just swept the Yankees in a 4 game series this past weekend.
Houston is a team I do not want to fade often this year. They are the one team I have a preseason World Series future on for this year, so I obviously like them a lot. Still, the Astros are in a flat spot here. They had a very late night on Sunday night after their tough loss to the Red Sox and got into Oakland in the early morning. They won in the first game of this series, but it is often said by former players that the second game is tougher in this kind of a situation.
Sonny Gray has been fantastic of late. He's had bad batted ball luck, but Gray's swinging strike rate and velocity are at their highest points of his career.
Martes has walked tons of batters in the minors and he has a high walk rate in a small sample size in the majors as well. I like to fade favorites with a starting pitcher who walks a lot of guys.
|06-20-17||White Sox +152 v. Twins||7-9||Loss||-100||17 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* This isn't a game I had circled to play, but this is a price grab I can't pass up. The line here is implying the White Sox have a 39.68% chance of winning this game. In MLB, the worst teams win at least 40% of their games, and that's important to remember when looking to play bad teams.
The White Sox aren't good, but I'm not convinced the Twins are very good either. Minnesota is likely to continue to regress in the coming weeks. Also, the Twins have been worse at home than on the road.
Ervin Santana has been a terrible big favorite in his career. When starting as a -130 to -190 favorite in his career, Santana's teams are 57-53. He's barely winning 50% of the games. Santana is due for some serious regression due to batted ball luck.
The White Sox have a clear bullpen advantage here as well. If Derek Holland can pitch a decent game, I like our chances.
Take the White Sox.
|06-20-17||Blue Jays -119 v. Rangers||1-6||Loss||-119||25 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Toronto* The Toronto Blue Jays face Nick Martinez on Tuesday night. Martinez is a guy I've done well fading throughout his career. Martinez doesn't miss enough bats, and this Toronto lineup is in a great hitter's park at Texas. I think Martinez will have a lot of trouble with this deep lineup.
Francisco Liriano has shown improvement since coming back from the disabled list. Liriano still has trouble finding the strike zone at times, but DJ Reyburn is behind the plate for this one and he has a bigger strike zone than most umpires.
Texas ranks 27th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Rangers are also at a severe disadvantage in the bullpen. Martinez doesn't pitch deep in the game often, so I think we'll see a lot of the Rangers pen here.
The Rangers are 2-8 in Martinez's last 10 starts following a quality start in his last outing. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 starts.
|06-20-17||Giants v. Braves OVER 9||6-3||Push||0||17 h 9 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves have a very good .272 batting average and a .339 OBP against lefties this year. Matt Moore isn't a good left handed pitcher. Moore gives up a ton of hard contact. How much? An amazing 41% of batted balls against him are hit hard. That's one of the three worst marks in the majors. No wonder this guy has an ERA above 6.
Julio Teheran has an ERA over 7 at home this year. Teheran has a 4.86 ERA, but his FIP is 5.67 and his xFIP is 5.43. Teheran's walk rate has doubled from last year. He's allowing nearly 2 home runs per every nine innings pitched. The Giants offense has been much better on the road than at home.
Both of these bullpens rank among the ten worst in baseball. Rain is possible here, and if we do get rain it won't be a terrible thing to see a lot of the bullpens.
The over is 8-0-1 in Matt Moore's last 9 road starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-1 in Moore's last 7 starts following a Giants loss in the previous game. The over is 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 following a quality start in his last outing. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 with five days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts after the Braves score 5 runs or more. Paul Emmel is a great over umpire long term and the over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 behind the plate. A 42-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-20-17||Nationals v. Marlins OVER 9||12-3||Win||100||16 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* Gio Gonzalez isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Gonzalez doesn't quite have the same dominant curveball he once did, and his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are at the worst point they have been since his rookie season. The Marlins smash left handed pitching. Miami ranks in the top 5 in the majors in almost all categories against lefties. The Marlins have a solid .350 OBP as a team against Gio Gonzalez in his career.
Edinson Volquez had a real nice couple game stretch with the no hitter included, but this isn't a guy I trust at all. Volquez is giving up more hard contact this year, and his SIERA is 4.81. He'll be up against a Washington lineup that has been the most consistent lineup in the National League this year.
Neither of these bullpens are any good. In the late innings, there should be plenty more chances to score.
Take the over.
|06-20-17||Cardinals v. Phillies OVER 9||8-1||Push||0||17 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is really streaky, and they have been hot of late. I think the Cardinals are one of the best offenses in the NL, and I expect them to keep hitting the ball well.
Jeremy Hellickson has been awful this year. Hellickson is striking out only 3.97 batters per nine innings. That's awful. He has an xFIP of 6.09 and he has been in terrible form of late. St. Louis should get to him and then the Phillies terrible bullpen is in.
Mike Leake started the season hot, but he's been hit hard of late. Leake has allowed 18 runs in his last 4 starts.
The wind will be blowing out at 10 mph with a temperature of 80 at the start of this game. Those are certainly favorable conditions.
The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 2-0-2 in Hellickson's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-19-17||Nationals -108 v. Marlins||7-8||Loss||-108||18 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins have played better of late, and they have made sharp bettors some solid money in recent weeks, but I am going to fade them here.
Miami is much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching, while they have been in the top six all year in wOBA against lefties.
The Marlins have been money burners against right handed pitching for the last few seasons. Since the start of 2015, $100 bettors who bet on Miami in every game that they faced a right hander would be down $3,048 right now.
Tanner Roark is nothing special, and he isn't the reason I'm making this bet. The primary reason is fading Justin Nicolino. Anytime I can get one of the five or six best teams in baseball at nearly even money against Justin Nicolino, I'm taking them.
Nicolino had a 4.77 ERA and a terrible 6.43 FIP in Triple A this year. He doesn't miss any bats. His career swinging strike rate is an abysmal 5.1%. The Nationals are excellent against lefties (top 5 in the majors) and they should make a lot of hard contact here.
The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Marlins are 1-11 in Nicolino's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games that Nicolino starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-1 angle.
|06-18-17||Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9||5-4||Push||0||10 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Robbie Ray has started six games on the road this year. He has allowed a grand total of four runs in those six road starts. Ray has thrown a shutout in his last three straight road contests. He has allowed 4, 2, and 2 hits in those three starts. Simply put, Ray has been absolutely dominating on the road. Ray has an ERA almost 2 full runs lower on the road in his career than at home, so his outperformance on the road is nothing new.
Ray will be up against a bad offense in the Philadelphia Phillies in this one. Philadelphia has a terrible .224 batting average against lefties on the season.
Ben Lively has been solid in his first three starts for the Phillies. Lively was pretty good in the minors, and he suppresses home runs about as well as anyone.
The Diamondbacks offense has great numbers overall for the year, but they aren't even close to as good away from home. Arizona has only a .288 weighted on base average on the road. At home, their wOBA is .372.
The under is 31-14 in the DBacks last 45 road games.
Take the under.
|06-18-17||Nationals v. Mets UNDER 8.5||1-5||Win||110||11 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* In his career as an umpire, Ron Kulpa has been one of the best under umpires in baseball. Kulpa has seen 57.5% of games stay under the posted total when he is behind home plate.
Jacob Degrom has pitched into some bad luck this year. I'm confident he'll have a good year again by the time the season is through. His strikeout rate is actually up this year, but he's been victimized by bad batted ball luck.
Degrom has excelled in two areas in his career. He has been great at home. Degrom has a 2.14 ERA at Citi Field. Also, Degrom has been superb when pitching in day games. Degrom has an amazing 1.78 ERA in 31 starts during the daytime in his career.
Joe Ross is inconsistent, but he has good stuff. Kulpa should help him quite a bit, and I see this Mets offense as a little overvalued right now.
Take the under.
|06-18-17||White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5||3-7||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The White Sox have been great at making lefties work hard, and they've been able to string together a lot of big innings against lefties (something they rarely do against righties).
J.A. Happ has been inconsistent in his first few starts back from an injury. He'll be tested by the White Sox here.
James Shields is a guy I'm really low on. Shields is way past his prime. He doesn't have the control he did in the past. Shields isn't getting swings at pitches outside the zone like he did in the past either. He is coming off a shoulder injury and gets thrown into the fire against a good Blue Jays lineup.
Mark Wegner is a good over umpire. He's consistent among the bottom 10 umpires in the majors in percentage of pitches called a strike.
I think both teams put up several runs here.
Take the over.
|06-17-17||Mariners +118 v. Rangers||4-10||Loss||-100||3 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Mariners are the team I believe has the higher upside here. Texas' bullpen holds them back quite a bit, and the Rangers offense is less consistent than Seattle.
Only 30% of the tickets are on Seattle here, but a whopping 75% of the money is on the Mariners. That's a serious sharp move on the underdog, and that's something you have to respect.
Martin Perez is giving up the highest hard contact rate of his career, and the Rangers don't deserve to be favored by this much over a quality team when he's on the mound.
Delino DeShields has been key to this Texas lineup at the top of the order lately, and he's sitting this game out.
Take Seattle plus the money.
|06-17-17||Cardinals v. Orioles OVER 9.5||7-15||Win||100||13 h 55 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Adam Wainwright isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Wainwright has a swinging strike rate of only 7.9%. He has a SIERA of almost 5. Wainwright has been able to be good at home, but his road ERA this year is a miserable 7.28.
Wade Miley has finally come back down to earth hard of late. Miley is having major control problems this year, and he's been wild both inside and outside of the zone. That has led to increased hard contact and some major problems in general for Miley.
The weather will be a big help here. It is expected to be 85 degrees with 12-14 mph winds blowing out during this game.
The Orioles bullpen is one of my lowest ranked bullpens in the majors without Zach Britton. They have some long guys who are simply overmatched right now. Miley isn't likely to stay in the game long. The Cardinals offense is much deeper than the average NL offense, and that helps a lot in an interleague game.
The over is 7-0 in the Cardinals last 7 interleague games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in Wainwright's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A combined 41-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-17-17||Yankees v. A's +116||2-5||Win||116||2 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Oakland* The New York Yankees are sitting a bunch of key players today. The Yankees don't have Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, and Aaron Hicks. Jacoby Ellsbury is still on the DL.
Jesse Hahn has typically been very good when pitching at home. His style of pitching fits this park very nicely. The A's are a tricky team at home. Oakland isn't very good, but year after year they pull a lot of upsets on their home field.
The Yankees are in a tailspin right now. The bullpen has been overused, and Tanaka has been very shaky of late.
The A's do have a lot of power against right handed pitching, and Tanaka is more than capable of giving up multiple home runs here.
Take the plus money price.
|06-17-17||White Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5||5-2||Loss||-115||10 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays start Marcus Stroman on Saturday afternoon. Stroman is their ace and he has allowed 2 runs or less in all but three of his starts so far this year.
Stroman will be up against a White Sox team that ranks third from the bottom in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Chicago had an out of body experience when smashing Joe Biagini on Friday night. I don't think they'll do the same to the much more talented Marcus Stroman.
Mike Pelfrey isn't any good, and he is even worse during the daytime in his career. Day/night splits have been important for me over the years, and Pelfrey has a terrible 5.04 ERA in day games in his career. His night ERA is 4.34.
The Blue Jays bullpen is an underrated group, and I think they'll be working to protect a nice lead in this one.
The early weekend games have been good to home teams in the long term as well. Look for Toronto to win comfortably here.
Take Toronto -1.5.
|06-16-17||Yankees v. A's UNDER 8||6-7||Loss||-100||7 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The over has been on a big run in Oakland games of late, and I think that is creating some nice value for us on the under here. The A's are a team that strikes out a bunch. Luis Severino is averaging 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Severino hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last five starts. With young pitchers, recent form matters quite a bit to me.
Sean Manaea is a guy I like quite a bit. Manaea is good at getting guys to chase bad pitches. He has excellent movement on all of his stuff.
The Yankees are first in the majors in wOBA against righties, but they are only 13th against lefties, and Manea is a good lefty.
This is clearly still a park that is pitcher-friendly as well.
I'll take the under here.
|06-16-17||Mariners -131 v. Rangers||4-10||Loss||-131||5 h 0 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* The Seattle Mariners start James Paxton here. He is striking out more than 10 guys per nine innings of work, and Paxton has an excellent mix of pitches in his arsenal.
Texas is a hitters park, and the weather is very hot today, but Paxton is generally good at suppressing homers. The Mariners bullpen is definitely better than the Rangers pen as well.
Tyson Ross hasn't proven worthy of trusting at all. In Triple A in four starts this year, Ross had a 7.71 ERA and his FIP was 6.70. He wasn't fooling anyone. He's had a lengthy injury history, and I don't think this is the same guy we saw a few years ago.
The Rangers rank dead last in the majors in wOBA against lefties. This Mariners lineup is hitting the ball really well right now.
Only 53% of the bets are on Seattle, but 81% of the money is on the Mariners. I'll side with the sharps on Seattle.
Take the Mariners.
|06-16-17||Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds||3-1||Win||100||16 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Los Angeles Dodgers are an excellent team. The Dodgers have lineup depth that very few National League teams ever have. They also have the best bullpen in the National League.
Alex Wood is averaging 11.24 strikeouts per nine innings. Wood has a tremendous 2.01 ERA and a 1.88 FIP on the year. Wood has been very consistent this year, and the Reds lineup is no better than average.
Tim Adleman is a subpar right handed pitcher. The Dodgers are excellent against right handed pitching. There are so many very good lefties in this lineup, and Adleman is a guy who usually struggles after multiple times through the lineup.
The Reds rank as one of the worst bullpens in the majors and the Dodgers are one of the two or three best. A mismatch all around.
Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|06-16-17||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||11-4||Loss||-119||15 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Totals Trends SMASHER* The Chicago White Sox consistently rank among the worst teams in the majors against right handed pitching. The White Sox strike out at a high rate, and their hard contact rate is one of the worst in the majors against righties.
Joe Biagini has impressed me a lot this year. Biagini has a 3.38 ERA and a 2.83 FIP. He is walking only 1.93 batters per nine innings, so his control is excellent. He should be able to avoid big innings against this weak White Sox lineup.
Jose Quintana has been subpar this year, but he has superb numbers in Toronto in his career, and Quintana is a guy who I believe will improve from now through the end of the year. Quintana has allowed a grant total of zero runs in his last 19 and 2/3 innings pitched in Toronto. He has 7 walks and 24 strikeouts in that span.
The White Sox bullpen is slightly above average and the Blue Jays bullpen has been excellent in the past month (top six in the majors).
The under is 23-4-1 in Quintana's last 28 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. Toronto. The under is 4-0 in Biagini's last 4 starts.
Take the under.
|06-15-17||Rays v. Tigers OVER 9.5||3-5||Loss||-100||17 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Justin Verlander hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Verlander has a 4.68 ERA and a 4.92 SIERA. Verlander is giving up way more hard contact this year (38% vs. only 28% last year). He no longer suppresses home runs as he did in the past.
Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rays are third in the majors with 103 homers on the year.
Alex Cobb is giving up a bunch of hard contact as well (38.3%) and the Tigers offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Miguel Cabrera is way better than his numbers would suggest, and I think the Tigers offense is going to regress to the mean by scoring a lot of runs in the coming weeks.
These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball. Both are clearly in the bottom five in baseball.
The over is 7-0 in the Rays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 7-0 in Cobb's last 7 during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 26-0 angle.
Take the over.
|06-15-17||Orioles v. White Sox OVER 10.5||2-5||Loss||-110||12 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Chris Tillman is an absolute mess right now. It seems very likely that Tillman is still injured.
Tillman has lost 1.6 miles per hour off his fastball from last year. He is throwing a fastball on only 43% of pitches vs. 56% of pitches last year (injury?). Most interesting to me is Tillman's vertical release point changes from last year. Tillman is dropping down his arm significantly, and it isn't working at all. The most common reason for dropping your arm angle is a shoulder injury, and Tillman is coming off a shoulder injury.
David Holmberg isn't a guy I trust at all. Holmberg has never been all that good in the minors, and he is too wild. The Orioles have plenty of pop in their bats and I think they'll put up several on him here.
Both bullpens are no better than mediocre in the past month. The temperature for this one is expected to be 91 degrees with winds out at about 10 mph for this game. The ball should carry really well.
Take the over.
|06-15-17||Mariners v. Twins OVER 9.5||2-6||Loss||-110||11 h 14 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* First things first, the weather here is a big reason why I like this play. The temperature is expected to be 84 degrees with the wind blowing out to center at 16 mph. Target Field has seen 47 overs and 32 unders in the last 79 games when the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph.
Ariel Miranda has been pretty good at home, but on the road he has been a mess. He has a 5.68 ERA on the road this year. Miranda is a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls and the Twins have plenty of guys who can take him deep.
Jose Berrios will be up against a red hot Mariners lineup here. Seattle benefits a lot from Haniger being back in the lineup. Berrios has a BABIP against of only .231 and he's stranding 83% of runners on base. Those are numbers that suggest regression is coming. The Twins bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball right now, and I don't expect Berrios to go any more than 6 innings here.
This has been a high scoring series. I think we see another high scoring affair.
Take the over.
|06-14-17||Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5||2-13||Win||100||19 h 6 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros offense is one of the best in the league. Houston is capable of putting up a big number at any time.
Andrew Cashner has a 5.85 SIERA this year. Cashner still has more walks than strikeouts on the year. Anytime you go this far into the season and have more walks than strikeouts, you aren't very good. Cashner's velocity is the lowest it has been at any point in his career.
Francis Martes starts here for the Astros. Martes hasn't proven anything at any level above Double A. Martes walked nearly 8 batters per every nine innings in Triple A this year. He had a 5.29 ERA and a 5.95 FIP. I don't expect a guy like that to come up and have success quickly in the majors.
Manny Gonzalez is the umpire here and he's one of the best over umpires in the business. The over is 35-15-1 in his last 51 games behind the plate.
Take the over.