|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-15-16||Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5||3-5||Loss||-105||20 h 29 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers are one of the rare teams who have been able to hit Chris Sale well. The Tigers hitters have a very solid .346 OBP against Sale. Detroit can stack up the right handed bats and make things tough on Sale. The White Sox bullpen has been imploding of late, and I have no faith in their ability to hold a late lead if they have it here.
Mike Pelfrey just isn't any good. Pelfrey's advanced metrics suggest his ERA should be quite a bit higher than it actually is so far this season. The White Sox hitters have a great .367 OBP against Pelfrey all time. He just puts way too many guys on base, and is constantly pitching out of the stretch. The Tigers bullpen has struggled in this series, and that is important here too.
The over is 4-0 in Sale's last 4 starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1-1 in Sale's last 6 starts vs. Detroit. A 19-1 angle. Take the over.
|06-15-16||Mariners v. Rays -110||2-3||Win||100||19 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Tampa Bay Rays start Drew Smyly here and I think he is underrated. Smyly got some extra time off before this start because he has struggled a bit of late. He's still been missing a lot of bats though, and that's definitely a good sign. Smyly is a guy who I believe has good upside and I expect him to bounce back.
Nate Karns was pitching way above expectations for him early this year, but he's come crashing down of late. Karns is walking 4.23 batters per nine innings, which is way too many for me. Those extra chances with men on base usually cost you.
This price is just too low for the Rays at home with the pitching advantage. Take Tampa Bay.
|06-15-16||Cubs v. Nationals -132||4-5||Win||100||16 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Jason Hammel is the weak link in the Chicago Cubs starting rotation. Hammel is nearly 34 years old and his stuff is declining a bit. Hammel has a 2.36 ERA, but his XFIP is 4.20. He is stranding 85% of runners this year, and that number can't continue. Hammel isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't that good.
Stephen Strasburg has been tremendous this year. Strasburg is striking out 11.51 batters per nine innings, which is just tremendous. Strasburg has been far more consistent this year than in the past.
The Cubs bullpen is at a clear disadvantage here, and Strasburg is much better than Hammel. Grab the home team. Take Washington.
|06-15-16||Marlins v. Padres OVER 8.5||3-6||Win||100||23 h 12 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres average 3.39 runs per game against right handed pitching. They average 5.68 runs per game against left handed pitching. They'll be facing a weak lefty in Justin Nicolino on Wednesday afternoon. Nicolino is one of the worst left handed pitchers in baseball, and I like San Diego's chances of putting up several runs.
Luis Perdomo starts for the Padres, and he had never pitched in Double A or Triple A before this year. He was jumped up to the majors because the Padres are severely short on arms. He can't pitch deep into the game, and the Padres bullpen is very weak. The Miami offense has been underrated all year.
Cory Blaser gives us a decent over umpire for this game as well. I think we'll see a higher scoring game in San Diego on Wednesday afternoon. Take the over.
|06-14-16||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5||7-4||Win||100||20 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Chase Field is a tremendous park for hitters when the roof is open with very hot temperatures. That should be the case on Tuesday night. The DBacks website lists the roof status as open and the projected temperature at gametime of 98 degrees. That means the ball will fly very well in this one.
Kenta Maeda is a good pitcher, but I suspect he isn't quite as good as his numbers so far this year indicate. He has had good luck with keeping the ball in the park, and that will be tougher in this situation.
Archie Bradley is way too inconsistent for my liking, and he walks a bunch of guys. Bradley has been an over machine in his short career.
The over is 4-0 in Bradley's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 when the DBacks opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 home starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL West. An 18-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-14-16||Yankees v. Rockies UNDER 11.5||10-13||Loss||-106||19 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* Taking an under at Coors Field is never a lot of fun, but there is way too much value to pass up here. The Yankees rank 26th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching this year. Jorge De La Rosa actually has a nice history pitching at Coors Field. He does a nice job adapting to the Coors Field conditions.
Nathan Eovaldi has 3 starts at Coors Field and his ERA in those starts is a sparkling 1.47. Eovaldi has electric stuff, and this Rockies team has actually been a little quieter on offense in recent days.
The Rockies highest scoring games at home have typically come during day games. This one is a night game where the temperature will be falling through the upper 70's during the game. That isn't bad conditions for hitters, but it is far from the best possible.
This game is lined like these are two awful pitchers and elite offenses. I don't think that is the case. Factor in the Yankees amazing bullpen, and I have to take the under in this one.
|06-14-16||Mariners v. Rays UNDER 7.5||7-8||Loss||-100||5 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays start Jake Odorizzi in this one. Odorizzi has been great at home throughout his career. Odorizzi has a 2.88 ERA at home in his career. His ERA is 2.52 at home this year.
Taijuan Walker is definitely capable of breaking out and having a great season. He has all the tools necessary. Walker had one of his best starts of his career last time out against Cleveland. Look for him to keep building on that start here.
Seattle's offense has been streaky, and they have been much worse of late. Tampa Bay was red hot for a while, but they have since cooled off.
The under is 43-14-2 in the last 59 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. Take the under.
|06-14-16||Phillies v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||3-11||Loss||-117||10 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies ranks in the bottom five in the majors in both the last 14 days and the last 7 days in terms of production. This Phillies offense is coming off a nice performance against R.A. Dickey last night, but Marcus Stroman should prove a tougher challenge for them.
Stroman has been at his best at home during the day in his career, and he should induce a lot of swinging strikes against this lineup.
Zach Elfin showed tremendous control in the minors and he has some solid stuff. Toronto's offense has been a disappointment this year.
With this being a get away day, some key players could get the day off here.
Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is my single favorite under umpire. He is a strike calling machine. If this one goes over, it won't be because of Miller.
The under is 6-0-1 in the Phillies last 7 Tuesday games. The under is 8-0 in the Jays last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in the Jays last 5 games following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 31-0 angle. Take the under.
|06-13-16||Marlins -102 v. Padres||13-4||Win||100||22 h 41 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins are starting to get healthy. Miami finally has Yelich and Stanton back in the lineup. Ozuna has become a reliable hitter and Bour is a nice weapon as well.
San Diego's offense is among the worst in baseball. The Padres struggled to score at Coors Field most of the weekend, and now they come home to their home park where they have really struggled offensively all year.
Wei Yin Chen is a perfect match for this park. Chen is a fly ball pitcher, and that is a good thing in a park like this one. Add in the fact that San Diego really doesn't have hardly anyone who hits for power, and I think Chen will pitch well here.
Colin Rea is a subpar pitcher who has struggled even at home. The Marlins offense is an underrated unit, and I think they can get to him.
The Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Miami.
|06-13-16||Cubs +128 v. Nationals||1-4||Loss||-100||19 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Chicago Cubs have been the best team in the majors so far this year, and at this price I have to make a play on them here. There aren't going to be many times we can get the Cubs at this price all year.
Chicago has a very underrated pitcher on the mound in this one. Kyle Hendricks has a 2.90 ERA and a 3.04 FIP on the year. Hendricks has great control and rarely allows home runs. Washington's lineup has a miserable .106 average against him.
Max Scherzer is a really good pitcher, but he hasn't been in his best form this year. Scherzer has been inconsistent this year, and he has been giving up some big innings more often than the Nationals would like to see. The Cubs are a very patient offense and they'll make Scherzer work in this one.
The Nationals are great against lefties, but they are only mediocre offensively against right handed pitching.
Good price on the road team. Take the Cubs.
|06-12-16||Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 8||1-2||Win||103||19 h 43 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The San Francisco Giants start Jake Peavy in this one and the Los Angeles Dodgers start rookie phenom Julio Urias.
Urias got off to a rocky start, but he was much better last game, and his stuff is tremendous. The Giants are short-handed on offense right now, and this is a tremendous pitchers park.
Peavy has been very good against the Dodgers in his career, and the Dodgers offense ranks in the bottom five in the majors in the past 14 days in wOBA. The Giants don't rank much higher at 23rd.
This is a national television game and I expect a heated battle here. Look for runs to be difficult to come by.
Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate here and the under is 26-9-1 in his last 35 Sunday games. He is noted for having a bigger strike zone than a normal umpire. Take the under.
|06-12-16||Phillies v. Nationals -1.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-115||14 h 48 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB Game of the WEEK* The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen isn't good to start with, and right now this unit is overworked. Aaron Nola didn't go deep into the game at all on Saturday, and that hurt. On the other side, the Nationals have one of the best bullpens in baseball and they were saved by Tanner Roark's strong outing yesterday.
Adam Morgan isn't a good pitcher. Morgan is a below average lefty, and he allowed 6 runs against Washington earlier this year. Washington's offense ranks in the top five against lefties in baseball in all the major offensive categories. Morgan has an ERA of 7.22 in day games. The Nationals should get to Morgan as well as the bullpen.
Joe Ross has a 0.61 ERA in two starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia clearly isn't as good as they looked at the start of the season, and the Nationals are a very good team.
The Phillies are 0-5 in Morgan's last 5 starts. The Nationals are 7-1 in Ross' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. This one is a mismatch. Take Washington -1.5 big. TOP Play- MLB Game of the WEEK
|06-12-16||Indians v. Angels UNDER 8.5||8-3||Loss||-100||14 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Mark Ripperger is one of the top five under umpires in baseball. This is a guy who is calling a ton of strikes and taking pressure off the pitchers. The under is 35-17 in his last 52 games behind the dish.
Danny Salazar is taking the next step and is close to becoming an elite pitcher right now. The Indians offense has been good at home, but they have struggled on the road.On the other side, the Angels have been bad offensively at home.
Huff isn't a pitcher I like very much, but this umpire draw helps him and he'll try to work the corners here.
This is a very high total for a game in LA, especially with a pitcher as good as Salazar involved.
Take the under here.
|06-12-16||A's v. Reds -114||6-1||Loss||-114||11 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is bad, but John Lamb has been much better in his last couple starts. Lamb had a minor injury that slowed him down for quite a while, but he is healthy again now. Lamb is pitching deep into the game, which is definitely a good thing since this Reds bullpen is terrible.
The primary reason I like this bet is Kendall Graveman. He has serious home run problems, and this is not the ballpark or team to be facing when you have those kind of problems. The Reds actually rank first in the majors in wOBA in the past two weeks. Adam Duvall is scorching the ball right now and Joey Votto is heating up as well.
The A's are at a big disadvantage offensively, and the price is good enough here.
The A's are 0-5 in Graveman's last 5 road starts. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games overall. They are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the Reds. A 22-0 angle. Take Cincinnati.
|06-11-16||Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8||5-1||Loss||-120||17 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Francisco Liriano in this one. Liriano has good career numbers vs. the Cardinals, but I still have to doubt his ability to shut them down here. St. Louis has one of the best offenses in baseball this year, and Liriano has been having severe command problems of late.
Even if Liriano does pitch well here, he very rarely pitches deep into the game, and the Pirates bullpen ranks as one of the worst five bullpens in the majors.
Carlos Martinez has a 5.30 ERA at PNC Park in his career. This Pirates offense is far better than most people realize. Pittsburgh should get their chances in this one.
The warm weather here is a help as well.
Take the over.
|06-11-16||Padres v. Rockies OVER 12||3-5||Loss||-119||16 h 35 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* This posted total is set very high, but it's not high enough to keep me off the over. Coors Field is always a good park for hitters, but day games when the weather is like it is set to be on Saturday are on a different level. The temperature is scheduled to be 92 degrees with wind out at 15 mph. That makes this place a launching pad.
Erik Johnson has been a bad major league starter no matter where he has been, and now San Diego has given him his first start with the team and set it for this game against Colorado at Coors Field. Tough spot! The Rockies should be slug out a bunch of runs here. The Padres bullpen isn't good either, so that is an additional bonus.
Tyler Chatwood hasn't allowed a home run all year on the road, but he has allowed a home run on 23.1 percent of his fly balls at Coors Field this year. Chatwood has terrible home splits, and the Padres have hit the ball very well at Coors Field this year.
Paul Emmel is one of the best over umpires in the game and he's behind the plate for this game.
The over is 5-0-1 in the Padres last 6 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0-1 in the Rockies last 5 home games vs a righty. The over is 6-1-1 in the Rockies last 8 games. A 19-1 angle. Take the over.
|06-11-16||Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8||0-8||Push||0||11 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Aaron Nola is a really good young pitcher. Nola has a tremendous curveball and a great sinker. Few pitchers can fool people as bad as Nola does on a consistent basis. Nola has pitched 12 innings in Washington in his career and has yet to allow a run. Nola had a 1.58 ERA on the road so far this year.
Tanner Roark had some bad starts against Philadelphia last year, but he has dominated them this year. Roark has thrown 14 innings and allowed only 2 runs against them.
The Phillies lineup isn't very good, and while Washington is great against lefties they have struggled against right handed pitching this year.
Both pitchers are much better during day games than at night. This is a very early start time. The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
|06-10-16||Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||8-6||Win||100||19 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks offenses are both much better against left handed pitching. Justin Nicolino is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball according to many of the statistics I look at. Nicolino doesn't strike anyone out, and his control isn't very good. The Diamondbacks rank in the top three in the majors in almost all categories when it comes to offensive production vs. lefties.
The Marlins lineup is designed well to hit lefties. Patrick Corbin has been very inconsistent this year, and he seems to not fully have his confidence back.
Both of these bullpens are subpar right now as well.
The Chase Field Roof is slated to be open as of now. I worry that the roof could be closed due to the heat, so I will keep this as a 3 star play instead of 4. Regardless, I believe this play has real value.
The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 road games. The over is 7-1 in the DBacks last 8 home games. Take the over.
|06-10-16||Orioles +125 v. Blue Jays||3-4||Loss||-100||16 h 14 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Baltimore Orioles are a better team than I thought they would be. Buck Showalter is one of the best managers in baseball, and that certainly plays a role. The Orioles bullpen is good, and this offense is tremendous. The question mark for Baltimore is the starting rotation. In this one though, the Orioles have the starter with the most upside from their rotation on the mound.
Kevin Gausman has very good stuff and I see him maturing as a pitcher. Gausman has good breaking stuff, and his fastball has a lot of life.
Toronto's Marco Estrada is a guy who I believe is a little bit overvalued. Estrada isn't a bad pitcher, but he's less consistent than I'd want to back laying this kind of price against a great offense.
The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in their last 5 Friday games. They are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a right handed starter. Take Baltimore.
|06-10-16||Tigers v. Yankees OVER 9||0-4||Loss||-128||16 h 13 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers are absolutely pummeling left handed pitching of late. They started the season curiously slow against lefties, but they are making up for it lately. Detroit put up 11 runs vs. J.A. Happ. They scored 7 runs vs. Chris Sale. They scored 10 runs against Carlos Rodon. Those were all in the past week.
C.C. Sabathia has pitched well this year, but he is a major candidate for regression and this Detroit offense is extremely good. While the back of the Yankee bullpen is great, if Sabathia gets pulled early the middle of the Yankees pen isn't all that great.
Mike Pelfrey is just a really bad pitcher. Pelfrey is constantly pitching from the stretch and trying to work out of a jam. The Yankees lineup underachieved for a long time, but they are hitting the ball right now. I don't see any reason to expect that to stop tonight.
I expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over.
|06-09-16||Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11.5||5-11||Win||100||16 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB RED Hot CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies play an afternoon game at Coors Field on Thursday. The temperature for this one is expected to be 90 degrees and that's important. Year after year we have seen that with very hot weather Coors Field is the ultimate hitter's park. That is even more the case when it is a day game, where the ball flies much better than it does at night in Colorado.
Jeff Locke is coming off some nice starts of late, but he's not a good pitcher on the road. Despite his good start in Colorado earlier this year, I feel comfortable assuming that Colorado will get to him here. Locke is a much worse pitcher on the road overall, and his advanced statistics suggest he is due for regression.
Locke has a 4.28 ERA but his FIP is 5.13 and his SIERA is 5.23. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in their home games.
Pittsburgh ranks 7th in wOBA on the road this year. The Pirates are getting healthy again, and I really like this Pittsburgh lineup when healthy. Chad Bettis has a career 6.34 ERA when pitching at Coors Field.
The over is 20-7-4 in Locke's last 31 road starts. The over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 home games. Take the over.
|06-08-16||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||1-0||Win||100||22 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Chris Rusin has solid numbers and peripherals this year. The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been disappointing this year. Colorado's bullpen is much better than they were a year ago.
Maeda is a solid pitcher who has great deception. The Rockies offense isn't what it has been in recent years.
Adam Hamari is the umpire here and he ranks in the top 5% of umpires in the majors in terms of strikes called percentages. This is a very good under umpire. He'll give both pitchers the corners.
The marine layer in California is thicker at this time than at any other time during the year.
The under is 10-4 in the Dodgers last 14 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-2 in Rusin's last 7 starts. Take the under.
|06-08-16||Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||0-5||Win||102||20 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These are two teams who have been hitting the ball pretty well of late, but Seattle is much better offensively on the road and Cleveland is much better offensively at home.
Cleveland ranks 27th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) on the road. The Indians rank 4th in wOBA at home. Seattle ranks 13th at home and 5th on the road.
Taijuan Walker has been struggling with his command of late, but Mike Muchlinski being behind the dish is a big positive for him. Muchlinski is a big under umpire who will give him the corners.
Carlos Carrasco has been amazing on the road in the past three seasons. He has an ERA under 3 on the road in three straight seasons.
Both of these bullpens are solid as well, and this is definitely a pitcher's park.
Take the under.
|06-08-16||Braves v. Padres UNDER 7||4-2||Win||100||16 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Drew Pomeranz is very underrated as a starting pitcher and this Atlanta Braves offense is awful. Atlanta is bad on offense against everyone, but they are even worse against left handed starters.
Julio Teheran has good numbers this year and all year the Braves have given him very little run support.
The umpire here is Angel Hernandez and he ranks in the top 25% of umpires in the majors when it comes to strikes called percentages.
The marine layer is particularly thick in California this time of the year, which makes it tougher for the ball to fly.
All these factors equal an under play for me. Take the under.
|06-07-16||Royals v. Orioles OVER 9||1-9||Win||100||18 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT Cash* Ubaldo Jimenez and Yordano Ventura are both having some major issues right now. Jimenez has a 10.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 28 runs in his last 5 starts. Jimenez isn't a guy that can be trusted right now. He has an ERA 6.59 on the year, and he has been consistently terrible of late.
Yordano Ventura has been a big disappointment this year. Ventura had a 4.82 ERA and all the advanced metrics suggest he is actually getting lucky. Ventura should have an ERA even worse than that with the way he has pitched thus far.
Both Jimenez and Ventura are averaging more than 5 walks per nine innings pitched. That's just ridiculous and it is one of the biggest reasons for this bet. Anytime a big league pitcher is putting that many guys on base for free, there are going to be a lot of scoring opportunities.
Manny Gonzalez is an over umpire and that gives us an added boost for this play.
The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0-1 in the Orioles last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter overall. The over is 5-0 in Jimenez's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 30-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-06-16||Blue Jays v. Tigers -111||0-11||Win||100||16 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers start Michael Fulmer in this one, and he is absolutely locked in right now. Fulmer has tremendous upside, and he has shown it for 3 straight starts. Fulmer has allowed one earned run in his last three starts combined. He has walked four batters and struck out 22. Fulmer has been using his changeup much more, and that has really helped his fastball and hard slider be much more effective.
J.A. Happ has good numbers this year. I don't necessarily think Happ is a bad pitcher, but I do think he is due for some regression. Happ has a 3.06 ERA with a 4.20 FIP, a 4.56 XFIP, and a 4.72 SIERA. The past two full seasons Happ had a batting average on balls in play of .297 and .312. This year, it is at the .259 mark. That should change over time.
Detroit's lineup is crushing the baseball right now, and they will stack up the lineup with a bunch of right handed batters for this one.
The Tigers 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. They are 5-0 in Fulmer's last 5 starts. A 16-0 angle. Take Detroit.
|06-05-16||Mariners -111 v. Rangers||2-3||Loss||-111||14 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners were beaten on Saturday night, but I think they'll get back on track Sunday afternoon. Hisashi Iwakuma starts for them here, and he has been solid against Texas in his career. Iwakuma has a 3.66 ERA in 46 and 2/3 innings pitched at Texas in his career. That's a great ERA at a hitters park like Texas. The Rangers lineup has a weak .298 on base percentage against him.
On the other side, Derek Holland has struggled with this Seattle lineup. He has an ERA of less than 2 against Seattle on the road, but when facing them at home, his ERA is nearly 5. Overall, Seattle's lineup has a .317 average and a .365 on base percentage against Holland.
Jim Wolf is the home plate umpire here, and in 5 career starts with Wolf behind home plate, Derek Holland has been terrible. He has a 10.13 ERA in 21 and 1/3 innings pitched with Wolf behind the plate.
This Seattle team is red hot offensively, and the Mariners have a much better bullpen than the Rangers. Take Seattle.
|06-05-16||Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7||0-1||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The New York Mets take on the Miami Marlins in what I expect will be a pitcher's duel on Sunday afternoon.
The Miami Marlins offense is scuffling of late. While Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton are back in the lineup, they aren't back in a rhythm and likely aren't 100 percent healthy yet. Matt Harvey pitched great in his last outing after a string of bad starts. Harvey has some terrible batted ball luck this year, and I expect him to improve over the course of the season.
Jose Fernandez is the real, and at home he has been nearly unhittable in his career. Fernandez is 22-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his career at home. The Mets offense is very short handed now without Wright, Davis, and Cespedes was scratched on Saturday is questionable here.
The Marlins starting lineup has a .168 career average against Harvey. Fernandez owns a 1.67 ERA in 5 starts vs. the Mets.
The under is 5-0 in Fernandez's last 5 home starts. Take the under.
|06-04-16||Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9||4-10||Win||100||18 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners have the best weighted on base average of any team in baseball in the past two weeks. This offense is on an absolute roll right now. The Mariners have scored 50 runs in their last 5 games.
Texas is one of the best parks in the majors for hitters. Martin Perez has a nice 3.12 ERA but look at his advanced metrics and you'll see he's due for regression. Perez has a 4.40 FIP and a 4.60 XFIP. He's been stranding runners at a very high rate so far this year, but that can't continue for the whole season.
Seattle starts Nate Karns and he's had a nice season so far. A closer look at who Karns has pitched against shows you that he hasn't faced many of the top lineups in the majors. This is a tough spot for him against a Rangers lineup that gets Rougned Odor back for this game.
The over is 10-0 in the Mariners last 10 games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Karns' last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 43-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-04-16||Mets -116 v. Marlins||6-4||Win||100||13 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Mets have been inconsistent on offense this year, but I have to take them at this short of a price against Justin Nicolino. Nicolino rarely misses bats, and that's a real negative for a guy who also walks batters more than the major league average. Nicolino isn't very good and the Marlins bullpen ranks in the bottom ten in most statistical categories.
Bartolo Colon may be pretty old, but he is crafty and he has been great against Miami. Colon has been amazing at Marlins Park. In 3 starts last year in Miami, Colon had a 1.90 ERA. The Marlins lineup has been struggling of late. Yelich and Stanton are back in the lineup now, but they are less than 100 percent and they haven't been seeing the ball well.
The Mets have the better starter and the much better bullpen. Take New York.
|06-04-16||A's v. Astros -120||Top||5-6||Win||100||16 h 17 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* Rich Hill was originally slated to start for Oakland here, but he's dealing with an injury and Kendall Graveman will start instead. Hill has been fantastic all year, but Graveman has been a big disappointment.
Graveman has a 5.09 ERA and his FIP is 5.39, so there has been no bad luck associated with his bad season thus far. Graveman is walking 3.74 batters per 9 innings, which is just way too high for a pitcher like him. He doesn't miss enough bats to overcome those kind of walk problems. Graveman also is giving up 1.70 home runs per nine innings, which is one of the highest marks in the majors. Houston is a power hitting team.
Collin McHugh has been better of late, and he is the better starting pitcher in this game. McHugh has 5 starts against the Oakland A's and in those starts he has a great 2.67 ERA. Oakland's lineup was weak to start with and now without Josh Reddick they are very weak.
Houston's bullpen is excellent, and the Astros have a big advantage there. The Astros also have the much better defense.
Oakland is 0-8 in Graveman's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. The A's are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts. Houston is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. A 16-0 angle.
This price is way too cheap. Take Houston big. TOP Rated play- MLB Game of the Week
|06-03-16||Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7||2-4||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Atlanta Braves have the worst offense in the majors. They have been the worst for the year overall and they have been the worst overall in the past two weeks.
Los Angeles' offense has been a big disappointment. The Dodgers have struggled badly to score at home, and they rank 26th in offensive production in the past two weeks.
Julio Teheran has thrown the ball well this year. Teheran has bumped up his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate this year. He isn't a guy who allows many home runs on average.
Kenta Maeda has been very good the Dodgers, and the Braves haven't seen him yet. He has a deceptive delivery that should be very hard on hitters the first time they see him.
The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the under.
|06-03-16||Nationals v. Reds OVER 8.5||2-7||Win||100||18 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals are a much better offense against left handed pitching. Cincinnati starts lefty Brandon Finnegan here. Finnegan has given up 7 home runs at home already this year, with warm weather in Cincinnati now the ball is flying very well.
Gio Gonzalez has been victimized by the home run ball of late, and the Reds do have some home run hitters. Like the Nationals, the Reds are much better against left handed pitching. Gonzalez doesn't have his best form right now, and Cincinnati should get scoring chances.
The Reds bullpen is the worst in the league by a huge margin, and anytime you have a number of only 8.5 at Great American with pitchers who aren't elite, I feel like the value is with the over.
Take the over.
|06-03-16||White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5||3-10||Win||100||16 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Friday Fast Cash* The Detroit Tigers offense has been on fire in the past couple weeks. This is a lineup that underachieved early in the year, but they have hit their stride of late. Detroit is going to continue to score runs in bunches quite often this year, because they really do have a bunch of great hitters in this lineup.
Jordan Zimmermann is coming off an injury and is likely to be limited in this one for Detroit. The Tigers bullpen isn't a good one, and extended work for them is good for the over.
Carlos Rodon puts too many guys on base, and I believe the Tigers can make him pay. After a great start, the White Sox bullpen has been terrible in recent weeks.
Take the over.
|06-02-16||Red Sox -122 v. Orioles||7-12||Loss||-122||17 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers made this line too short. Ubaldo Jimenez has been straight garbage in his last few outings. Jimenez has allowed 23 runs in his last 4 starts. He has no confidence right now, and Boston is the wrong team to be facing for a guy in that kind of shape.
Boston clearly has the best offense in baseball right now, and they are pounding out hits and runs on a nightly basis. They should get to Jimenez early and often here. While the Baltimore bullpen is good at the back end, they don't have many good long relievers for the middle of the game.
Rick Porcello has been better than expected this year. His consistency has been impressive. Porcello hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a single game this year.
The only thing keeping this from being a 5 star top rated play is that Jimenez has been capable of throwing an occasional gem in the past. I don't expect it here though. Boston is just too good to be pitching from the stretch against constantly. Take the Red Sox.
|06-02-16||Diamondbacks v. Astros UNDER 7.5||3-0||Win||100||12 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The home plate umpire is Ron Kulpa for this one, and he has the single best under record of any umpire in baseball over the past five years. He is a strike calling machine.
Dallas Keuchel has struggled with finding the zone this year, but Kulpa should help him a lot. Keuchel has always been much better at home than on the road as well.
Zack Greinke has struggled in Arizona this year, but on the road he has been good.
Both of these pitchers are better than they have pitched so far this year. Their early season struggles have given us a little bit higher total than we should see here.
It's get away day for these teams and that could mean some key players get a day off.
Take the under.
|06-01-16||Reds v. Rockies OVER 11||7-2||Loss||-101||18 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies scored 19 runs in the first game of the series on Monday. They scored 21 on Tuesday (Colorado scored 17 of them). I think they'll score a bunch again here.
John Lamb has gotten worse from last year to this season. There have been many rumors of Lamb battling injuries this year, but Cincinnati doesn't have any starting pitching depth now and he's still starting games for the team. Lamb has an ERA of 15.26 in two road starts this year. Now, he's headed to Coors Field. Ouch. If he gets hit around early, then the Reds bullpen is in for a long time. This bullpen is historically bad, and Colorado should pile on the runs against them.
Cincinnati's bats have been much better in the past week, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here too. Tyler Chatwood struggles at Coors Field, and this bullpen ranks 7th worst in the majors in ERA.
The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 games. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. A 28-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-01-16||Pirates v. Marlins OVER 8.5||2-3||Loss||-110||18 h 44 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Pittsburgh Pirates have been crushing left handed pitching this year. Only the Boston Red Sox have a higher weighted on base percentage against lefties than the Pirates. This Pirates team is full of underrated guys like Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco as well as Jung Ho Kang. Adam Conley has been pretty good this year, but the Pirates should pick up several runs in this one.
The Miami Marlins are averaging 3.78 runs per game against right handed pitching. They are averaging 4.99 runs per game against lefties. They face a hittable lefty in Jon Niese here. Niese was better in his last start, but he hasn't been consistent this year.
These two bullpens are both among the bottom seven bullpens in the majors. This number is too low. Take the over.
|06-01-16||Yankees +109 v. Blue Jays||0-7||Loss||-100||17 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka in this one, and he's been very consistent this year. Tanaka also has a very good track record against Toronto. In Tanaka's three starts in Toronto in his career, he has a stellar 2.14 ERA. Tanaka has been much better on the road than at home in his career.
Aaron Sanchez has been pretty good this year, but he isn't racking up all that many swinging strikes which is a concern. He faces a Yankees lineup that is much healthier now than they have been most of the season.
The Yankees have a massive advantage in the bullpen, and that could be crucial here. The Yankees bullpen is fresh and everyone should be available for this one. At this price, I'm taking the Yankees. Take New York.
|05-31-16||Tigers v. Angels OVER 8.5||9-11||Win||102||19 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Detroit Tigers have had the best offense in baseball in the past two weeks. This certainly doesn't surprise me, as it was only a matter of time until an offense like this was going to break out.
Hector Santiago has had some regression coming his way for a long time, and it hit last game in Texas. Santiago is a streaky guy, and I'm not sure he'll be able to slow down this red hot Tigers lineup.
Anibal Sanchez has been awful this year. Sanchez has allowed 4 runs or more in each of his last 5 starts and in 7 of his last 8 starts. His walk rate is way up this year, and opponents are squaring up the ball much more often on his pitches. Until Sanchez proves he is better than this, you have to look to fade him or take the over in his games.
The Angels offense has been much better in the past few weeks.
The over is 9-1 in Sanchez's 10 starts this year.
Take the over.
|05-31-16||Cardinals -140 v. Brewers||10-3||Win||100||18 h 51 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The St. Louis Cardinals start Mike Leake in this one, and he's been pitching extremely well of late. Leake has been a very streaky over the course of his career, and his two best months of the year are May and June. He's pitching his best at the same time again this year. Leake has allowed just 4 runs in his last 28 innings pitched.
Milwaukee's offense has been pretty good at home this year, but they will likely be without Ryan Braun for this one. Braun has a neck injury right now. Without Braun, this lineup isn't even close to as potent.
St. Louis has what is arguably the best offense in the National League. The Cardinals are first in the NL in weighted on base average on the road.
Wily Peralta has been crushed all year long. At Miller Park, opponents have a .390 average against Peralta this year. Peralta also has a 6.33 ERA in his last five starts against St. Louis.
The Cardinals are 42-20 in their last 62 in Milwaukee. The Brewers are 0-5 in Peralta's last 5 against the Cardinals. Take St. Louis.
|05-31-16||Pirates v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||1-3||Win||100||19 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jose Fernandez has rounded into form of late, and when he is pitching at his best, he is one of the best in the majors. While the Pirates offense has been very good of late, I'll be surprised if they get many against Fernandez.
Gerrit Cole hasn't been quite as good this year, but he has tremendous stuff. Cole is capable of shutting anyone down, and he has shown that in recent games. This Marlins offense is a mess right now with Yelich still getting back in the swing of things and Stanton out injured.
I believe this has the makings of a pitcher's duel between two young very good pitchers. Look for a lot of quick innings in this one.
Take the under.
|05-31-16||White Sox v. Mets -1.5||6-4||Loss||-100||19 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Mat Latos isn't very good anymore. He doesn't strike out enough guys, and he just doesn't have the high end stuff to fool big league hitters on a consistent basis.
Steven Matz has been excellent this year. He'll be pitching against a White Sox lineup that hasn't been good of late. The White Sox lose DH Avasail Garcia in this series in a NL park, and that hurts them quite a bit.
I'm not impressed at all with Robin Ventura and this White Sox staff, and the White Sox are just absolutely spiraling downward right now. I don't think facing Matz and a Mets team that should be very good this year is a good matchup for them.
Take New York -1.5.
|05-31-16||Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 7.5||5-1||Win||100||23 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies offense isn't very good, but they do have a very good young starter on the mound here in Aaron Nola. Nola is inducing a ton of swings and misses, and his stuff is elite.
The Washington Nationals offense is great against lefties, but they are in the bottom half of the league in offensive production against right handed starters.
Joe Ross has very good stuff as well, and this Phillies lineup has a tough time stringing together enough hits to score often on a guy with swing and miss stuff like Ross.
The Phillies bullpen isn't good, but it isn't as bad as expected. The Nationals bullpen is elite.
The under is 3-0-1 in Ross' last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 23-0 angle. Take the under.
|05-30-16||Pirates v. Marlins OVER 9||10-0||Win||100||17 h 36 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In Jeff Locke and Justin Nicolino, we have two very bad left handed starters in this one.
Locke has been alright at home in his career, but away from home he is pure fade material. Locke had a 5.63 road ERA last year and a 6.15 ERA so far this year. In this one though, he is opposed by a guy who is likely a little worse than he is. Nicolino is a pitch to contact guy who gives up a lot of hard hit balls.
Miami is 8th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Pirates are second in the majors in that same category.
The Pirates bullpen has been a major weakness this year. The Marlins bullpen has been bad in the past couple weeks also.
The over is 19-7-4 in Locke's last 30 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Nicolino's last 5 home starts. The over is 7-2 in the Pirates last 9 vs. a lefty. Take the over.
|05-30-16||Reds v. Rockies -130||11-8||Loss||-130||14 h 52 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Colorado Rockies have been a pretty good team at Coors Field in recent years even when they don't have a good team overall. Cincinnati is just an awful team this year. Cincinnati has the worst bullpen in baseball by a huge margin, while Colorado's bullpen is much improved this year.
Chad Bettis has some quality stuff and he's a guy I'll look to back when I get good opportunities this year. Dan Straily is due for some regression and he doesn't pitch deep enough in the games. His short outings mean a lot of the Reds bullpen, which is great news for the Rockies.
Colorado's offense should have all kinds of scoring opportunities here.
The Rockies are 7-0 in Bettis' last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Reds are 4-19 on the road this year. This is a very fair price. Take Colorado.
|05-30-16||Twins +100 v. A's||2-3||Loss||-100||13 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Minnesota Twins aren't a good team, but they aren't as bad as their record would indicate. Minnesota has won four straight games, and they come into this one with some nice momentum.
Trevor Plouffe is expected back in the lineup Monday, and that's big for the Twins offense. Ervin Santana is still a decent big league pitcher, and pitching in pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum is great for Santana. He is a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls, and that's a good thing at this park. Santana's career ERA pitching in Oakland is an amazing 1.94 over 84 innings.
Kendall Graveman continues to find ways to lose. The A's are 5-18 in his last 23 starts. Graveman has allowed more than one hit per inning pitched in each of his last five starts. He isn't throwing it well now, and the Twins offense is starting to heat up.
|05-30-16||Giants v. Braves UNDER 7.5||3-5||Loss||-105||10 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeff Samardzija is dialed in right now, and it's hard to imagine the Atlanta Braves lineup doing anything to change that. This Braves offense is one of the worst offenses in baseball. They have been particularly bad at home.
The under is 6-0 in Samardzija's last 6 road starts. He's been throwing his fastball really well lately. His pitch location has been tremendous. The Giants bullpen has also been improved in recent weeks.
Mike Foltynewicz is improving for the Braves. He has quality stuff, and he is slowly improving his control. The Giants offense did break out at Coors Field this weekend, but Turner Field is a pitcher's park.
Take the under here.
|05-29-16||Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5||3-6||Loss||-100||16 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have played two games that went well over the total, but I think this one stays under. The roof will be closed at Chase Field for this one, and that's a big deal. The ball flies much better with the roof open.
Drew Pomeranz has really come into his own this year. Pomeranz has improved his control and has added in an extra pitch. This guy was always highly touted, and this is the year he became the real deal.
Archie Bradley has an ERA of just under 2 at Triple A this year, and he's getting a chance to prove he should be in the rotation. What better team to do it against than the San Diego Padres? They arguably have the weakest lineup in baseball.
Bill Miller is behind the plate here, and that's the single biggest reason for this play. Miller is a terrific under umpire. He'll give both guys the corners a lot here. The under is 37-15-1 in Miller's last 53 Sunday games. Take the under.
|05-29-16||Giants -1.5 v. Rockies||8-3||Win||111||15 h 24 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The San Francisco Giants have been rolling of late, and their bats finally woke up in a big way on Saturday.
Johnny Cueto has been amazing for San Francisco this year, and his numbers at Coors Field in his career are great. Cueto has a 2.61 ERA in 5 starts at Coors Field. Additionally, Cueto has a stellar 2.56 ERA in day games in his career.
Chris Rusin isn't a terrible pitcher, but this Giants lineup has good numbers against him. San Francisco's expected lineup on Sunday has a .361 average against him.
The Giants have a big pitching advantage, and when playing at Coors Field I trust the Giants offense more than I trust the Rockies offense. The Giants also have a small bullpen advantage.
Take San Francisco -1.5.
|05-29-16||Pirates v. Rangers OVER 9||2-6||Loss||-110||12 h 19 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Texas Rangers are 9th in the majors in the same category.
Francisco Liriano's numbers are much worse this year. His hard contact percentage has gone way up, and his velocity is down a bit. Liriano has a lot of control problems, and he has gotten himself in some big trouble when pitching on the road this year.
Martin Perez isn't a bad pitcher, but this Pittsburgh offense is excellent. Perez has benefited from some good fortune so far this year, and regression should hit soon for him.
These two bullpens are both in the bottom five in the majors. Both have thrown a lot of innings of late also. I wouldn't trust Perez or Liriano to go deep in the game here, and I don't think the bullpens will be good in relief.
The over is 7-1 in the Pirates last 8 vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 vs. a lefty. Take the over.
|05-29-16||Cardinals v. Nationals -1.5||2-10||Win||131||13 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Admittedly, I've been wrong about this series so far. The Cardinals have beaten me the last two nights when I've taken Washington. I still believe Washington is the right side on Sunday.
Michael Wacha looks like he has something wrong with him. Some injury specialists have said that Wacha's motion makes him a candidate for injury issues, and he has been terrible of late. Until he can prove to me that he is right, I'll be looking for spots to fade him.
Stephen Strasburg's breakout year so far has been tremendous. He is getting a ton of swinging strikes, and his command of all pitches is much better.
The moneyline is too expensive for me to lay it, and I think this run line price is a good value. Take Washington -1.5.
|05-29-16||Red Sox -134 v. Blue Jays||5-3||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox are looking to avoid the sweep in Toronto in this one. David Price toes the rubber for them. Price has a high ERA on the year, but his advanced metrics suggest he is pitching much better than most believe. Price has a FIP of only 2.81 on the year, and his strikeout rate is nearly 11 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.
Price has dominated Toronto in the past. He has a sparkling 17-2 record and a 2.42 ERA in his career against Toronto. Price has pitched better of late, and I suspect he still wants to get back at Toronto for how things went down with him in the playoffs last year.
R.A. Dickey had a 7.45 ERA in two starts against Boston this year. Boston has a nice mix of great hitters and fast runners who can burn up the base paths when he is out there on the mound throwing that knuckler.
The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. Toronto is 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Jays are 0-6 in Dickey's last 6 home starts. They are 0-6 in his last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Toronto is 0-5 in Dickey's last 5 starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Price's last 4 starts against Dickey. A 30-0 angle. Take Boston.
|05-28-16||Cardinals v. Nationals -130||9-4||Loss||-130||18 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals send Gio Gonzalez to the mound on Saturday night against Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Gonzalez is coming off a poor outing in his last start. He should benefit from getting the Cardinals while they are short-handed here. The Cardinals are the best offense in the NL against righties, but St. Louis is a middle of the pack offense against lefties.
Adam Wainwright has been somewhat better in recent starts, but he isn't the same guy he used to be, and the Cardinals bullpen isn't close to as good as the Nationals bullpen.
The Nationals outhit the Cardinals 8 to 4 last night, but they were undone by Max Scherzer's one bad inning. I think Washington gets back on track with a win here. Take Washington.
|05-28-16||Dodgers v. Mets -139||9-1||Loss||-139||7 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The New York Mets send Noah Syndergaard to the mound in this one, and he has been more dominant than any other pitcher in baseball outside of Clayton Kershaw. Syndergaard has held the Dodgers to a .178 batting average in two starts, and the Dodgers lineup hasn't been swinging very well of late either.
The Mets have a huge bullpen edge in this one. Kenta Maeda is a guy that has come back down to earth a bit lately. He is a solid pitcher, but he doesn't have the quality of stuff that Syndergaard has. At this price, I'm laying it with Syndergaard and the Mets at home.
The Dodgers are 2-12 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or higher. Take New York.
|05-28-16||Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 7||Top||9-1||Loss||-113||18 h 36 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* Noah Syndergaard has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year other than Clayton Kershaw. Syndergaard has absolutely devastating stuff, and his command has gotten much better in the past year. This guy has a tremendous upside.
Syndergaard faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that is 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching in the past month. Syndergaard is one of the best, if not the best, right-handed pitcher in baseball right now. I expect him to be great again. The Dodgers lineup has a .178 batting average against Syndergaard.
Kenta Maeda is a pretty good pitcher as well. He isn't even close to Syndergaard, but this Mets offense is 23rd in wOBA against right handed pitchers in the past month, so I expect him to fare pretty well here as well.
Adam Hamari calls a bunch of strikes behind home plate, and he is a big positive for the under in this one.
The under is 23-8 in the Dodgers last 31 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-3 in the Mets last 10 vs. a right handed starter. Take the under big. TOP Total of the Week
|05-28-16||Marlins -117 v. Braves||2-7||Loss||-117||3 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Fade for Cash* The Atlanta Braves are 3-20 at home this year, and we get to fade them at this price? I have to grab it. The Marlins are 15-10 on the road. Ironically, Atlanta has been beating Miami this year. Maybe that is why the line has moved in Atlanta's favor here. Another reason for the line move could be Yelich and Stanton out of the lineup.
Still, even without those guys, the Marlins lineup is better than the Braves lineup. Additionally, Wei Yin Chen has amazing career numbers against Atlanta, and the Braves are terrible against left handed pitching.
Too cheap on the road team here. Take Miami.
|05-28-16||White Sox +110 v. Royals||7-8||Loss||-100||12 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Kansas City Royals lineup is a mess right now. Without Gordon, Moustakas, and Morales this is a lineup that should have a lot of trouble scoring against good pitchers.
Kansas City has already struggled against lefties this year even before these injury problems. The Royals are 25th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.
Carlos Rodon has been better on the road than at home in his young career. Rodon has improved his control this year, and I expect him to continue to improve with time. This guy was the third overall draft pick a couple years ago, and he has a high upside.
Yordano Ventura is walking about 6 batters per every 9 innings, and his command has been awful all year.
Getting the healthy White Sox as an underdog against Ventura is a good value. Take Chicago.
|05-28-16||Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5||9-10||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays put up 7 runs last night. This Toronto offense has underachieved all year, but I think they may be starting to break out. Toronto hits well at home, and they are up against Rick Porcello in this one.
Porcello has a 7.15 ERA when pitching in Toronto. In his last 14 innings pitched in Toronto, he has allowed 17 runs. Toronto should get to him in this one as well.
Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, but this Boston offense is excellent. The Red Sox are at their best against right handed pitching. I expect them to get scoring chances against him and the Toronto bullpen which has been subpar of late.
A total of only 8.5 with these two teams is too low. Mike DiMuro is behind the plate also, and he is a very good over umpire.
The over is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 home games. The over is 3-0-2 in the Red Sox last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0 in DiMuro's last 5 behind home plate. A 12-0 angle. Take the over.
|05-27-16||Giants v. Rockies OVER 10.5||2-5||Loss||-100||8 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Colorado Rockies hit the ball really well last night in Boston against Clay Buchholz and I think they can come home and score a lot on Matt Cain as well. Cain is one of the more extreme fly ball pitchers in the majors, and that's a big negative at Coors Field. Cain has pitched somewhat better of late, but I expect that to change tonight in Colorado.Cain has allowed 14 runs in 8 and 2/3 innings so far this year against Colorado.
Tyler Chatwood has a career home ERA of 4.83. Chatwood has been pretty good on the road in his career, but he can't seem to figure out Coors Field just yet. The Giants have been on fire of late, but it has been almost completely their pitching staff that has them winning. I expect that to change in this series. This San Francisco offense is better than they have shown so far this year.
The over is 7-1-1 in Cain's last 9 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Cain's last 5 starts vs. the Rockies. Take the over.
|05-27-16||Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||10-3||Win||100||20 h 36 m||Show|
*4 Star Friday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks meet at Chase Field on Friday night. San Diego is dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are much better against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are the second ranked team in baseball in wOBA against lefties. Both teams will be up against a lefty in this one.
Christian Friedrich has always been a guy that walks a bunch of guys, and that's trouble against this Diamondbacks lineup. The Padres bullpen isn't very good this year either, and I expect Arizona to put up plenty of runs here.
Robbie Ray has an ERA over 6 in his career with the roof open at Chase Field, and the roof is slated to be open on Friday night. The ball flies very well in Arizona with the roof open.
The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. A 15-0 trend. Take the over.
|05-27-16||Pirates v. Rangers OVER 9||9-1||Win||100||21 h 29 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jon Niese has been bad all year long, and now he goes into one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball and has to face a Texas lineup that just broke out against the Angels. He'll also have to face 9 position players here instead of 8 with 1 pitcher. Niese is in a tough spot here.
Cole Hamels has a great ERA, but he has stranded 87% of his batters so far this year, and that can't continue for the season as a whole. He is a solid pitcher who isn't quite as dominant as he was a couple years ago.
The Pirates and Rangers bullpens are both ranked in the bottom 5 of my bullpen rankings. The more these bullpens are in the game, the better it is for the over. Some thunderstorms are supposed to be in the area, which could make the starters leave earlier than normal.
Both teams are good against left handed pitching, and I think this gets past the posted total. Take the over.
|05-27-16||Cardinals v. Nationals -1.5||6-2||Loss||-100||19 h 37 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Washington Nationals start Max Scherzer in this one, and he has been much better in his last few starts. After struggling some to start the year, Scherzer seems to have settled down and his command has been much better in recent games.
Scherzer will be up against a Cardinals lineup that is short-handed. Matt Carpenter is out for this game and Matt Adams is doubtful to play here. You could argue those guys are their two most important hitters right now.
Jaime Garcia has always been much better at home than on the road. The Nationals as a team are tremendous against left handed pitching. Washington averages 5.42 runs per game against left handed pitching, and they have a .346 OBP against lefties.
The Nationals bullpen is one of the three best in the majors (Yankees and Mets), and the Cardinals bullpen isn't much better than mediocre. Too much value on the run line for me to pass this one up. Take Washington -1.5.
|05-26-16||Rockies +156 v. Red Sox||8-2||Win||156||17 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* Jonathan Gray starts for the Rockies, and I'm very high on his upside. Gray is coming off an ugly start at St. Louis, and I think that's why we are getting such a big number here.
Gray has an ERA of 6.75, but a FIP of 2.57 and an XFIP of 2.64. Gray has gotten some downright awful luck so far this year, and that should even out over time. Only 50.9% of runners have been left on base by Gray. Opponents have run up a batting average on balls in play of a ridiculous .376.
No doubt the Red Sox lineup is very good, but Gray has the quality of pitches to slow them down if he is on his game.
Clay Buchholz has been terrible this year, and he simply doesn't deserve to be -165 against this Rockies team. Buchholz has an ERA of 5.92 and all of his advanced metrics suggest he deserves an ERA of worse than 5, so it has primarily been bad pitching for him. His walk rate has more than doubled from last year.
The Red Sox are 3-10 in Buchholz's last 13 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take Colorado.
|05-25-16||Marlins v. Rays OVER 8.5||4-3||Loss||-105||19 h 56 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been on fire of late, and I don't expect a visit from Justin Nicolino to cool them off.
Nicolino has some awful numbers so far this year. He isn't striking anyone out. He has a grand total of 6 strikeouts in 29 and 1/3 innings pitched this year. He has 11 walks. That's just terrible, and this Tampa Bay Rays team is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. I expect them to get a lot of good rips against Nicolino. Consider this as well: almost 37% of balls hit by opposing batters off Nicolino have been hard hit balls. That is much higher than the league average of 30%.
Matt Andriese isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he definitely isn't as good as his numbers look so far this year. Andriese sports a 2.11 ERA but a 4.77 SIERA and a 4.79 XFIP. Opponents batting average on batted balls in play is just .167. That number will definitely rise in time. Miami's offense ranks in the top ten against righties this year.
Adrian Johnson is behind the plate and I have him rated as a decent over umpire. He calls fewer strikes than the average umpire, and he is likely to make life a little more difficult for these pitchers.
The over is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Rays last 6 games vs a left handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate. A 27-0 angle. Take the over.
|05-25-16||Angels +120 v. Rangers||9-15||Loss||-100||14 h 43 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Moneyline Play of Day* The Los Angeles Angels have made a habit out of roughing up Colby Lewis. Los Angeles hitters have a .345 average overall against Lewis. The Angels offense has heated up a lot over the past couple weeks.
Lewis is much worse at home. His home numbers over the past few years are just awful. In his last 40 starts at home, Lewis has a 5.10 ERA. In 23 starts against the Angels, he has an ERA of 6.06.
Hector Santiago has been better this year, and while he is due for some regression, I like that he has pitched well in Texas. Santiago has an impressive 2.63 ERA in 48 innings pitched in Texas.
The Rangers offense has been very shaky of late, and the Rangers bullpen is much worse than the Angels pen.
The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. They are 7-0 in Santiago's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The Rangers are 1-5 in Lewis' last 6 home starts vs. the Angels. Take Los Angeles.
|05-25-16||Phillies +123 v. Tigers||8-5||Win||123||13 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Philadelphia Phillies start Aaron Nola in this one, and Nola has a very bright future ahead of him as long as he can stay healthy. His stuff is fantastic, and it shows in all of his advanced statistics.
Nola has what some now believe is the best right handed curveball in baseball, and he has three excellent pitches. Nola is striking out almost 10 per every nine innings. He is walking only 1.65 per nine. His hard contact rate is just 22%, which is among the lowest in the majors. His FIP and XFIP are both lower than his ERA, so his good start has nothing to do with good luck. Nola has a fantastic 1.32 ERA in 34 innings pitched on the road this year.
The Tigers start Anibal Sanchez, and he has been a mess of late. Sanchez has allowed 4 runs or more in each of his last four starts. His ERA at home this year is 7.23.
Though the Tigers certainly have the much better lineup, the pitching matchup is so one-sided here I have to take this plus money price. Take Philadelphia.
|05-24-16||Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 7.5||12-3||Win||100||16 h 8 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals have torched Jason Hammel in the past, and the Chicago Cubs have torched Michael Wacha in the past.
These two offenses both rank in the top four in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. I expected both teams to work the count and get in some favorable situations.
Wacha has been awful in his last two starts, and he is having some mechanical issues.
Hammel has a 5.58 ERA when pitching in St. Louis.
The over is 14-3 in Wacha's last 17 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the Cubs. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs. The over is 6-1 in Hammel's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 31-4 trend. Take the over.
|05-24-16||Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7.5||4-7||Loss||-120||17 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals start Stephen Strasburg here, and he has been great this year. He's always had tremendous stuff, and this year he has had better command of a wide array of pitches. Strasburg is a top end starter. He may be slightly less consistent than some guys, but the Mets offense hasn't been hitting very well of late.
Matt Harvey has been bad this year, but his FIP of 3.63 suggests he has gotten some rotten luck this year. Harvey's velocity is down some, but it isn't to the level where he should just be getting shelled on a nightly basis. He has good numbers against Washington long term.
This number comes from an overadjustment of the total thanks to Harvey's recent struggles.
Vic Carapazza is the umpire here, and that's a very good thing for under bettors. In the past five years, he has called the 7th highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors. Take the under.
|05-24-16||Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8||1-12||Win||100||17 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank fourth in the majors in weighted on base average this year against left handed pitching. Francisco Liriano has been very erratic this year, and he can't be trusted to pitch well here.
Shelby Miller is a guy that I believe can be trusted to pitch poorly at this point. Miller leads the majors with 25 walks so far this year. He has only 27 strikeouts. That's an awful strikeout/walk ratio right there. Miller is going to give the Pirates opportunities to score here, and the Pirates offense is underrated by many. Obviously McCutchen is good, but Marte is very good and the rest of the lineup is solid.
Both bullpens are very shaky, which could lead to several late runs scoring. The weather has warmed up considerably in Pittsburgh, which means the ball will be carrying a little more here.
The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 4 or more runs last game. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 21-0 angle. Take the over.
|05-23-16||A's v. Mariners UNDER 7||5-0||Win||100||22 h 60 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland A's offense has some severe problems right now. They were already without some guys they expected to get some contributions from like Canha and Phegley, but when Josh Reddick went down with an injury that hurt this offense badly. The A's have one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been a little inconsistent, but he seems to have taken a definite step forward this year. Walker has tremendous stuff and it is just a matter of time until he becomes a reliable starter for this team.
Rich Hill is a guy I've been cautious to trust, but the advanced metrics all suggest Hill's very good start this season isn't a fluke. He has changed up his arsenal a bit, and it has worked brilliantly. Hill has an ERA of 2.54 and a FIP of 2.90.
The under is 6-1-1 in Walker's last 8 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Seattle. Take the under.
|05-22-16||Orioles v. Angels OVER 9||2-10||Win||110||12 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* We have two starters who are fully capable of imploding at any point. Ubaldo Jimenez has walked 4 batters or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Walking that many guys is a recipe for disaster in the big leagues. Jimenez comes into this game pitching in really bad form, and the Angels bats have heated up in the past couple weeks.
Jered Weaver is throwing 80 mph fastballs and trying to consistently get major leaguers out. Weaver does a better job of it than most guys could with that kind of velocity, but it's only a matter of time until they start squaring it up.
Baltimore's offense is one of the best in baseball, and the Angels offense is hot right now. This is one of those games where we could easily see big innings from both teams at some point throughout the game. These pitchers have plenty of blow up potential.
This park is a pitcher's park, but it is certainly better for hitters during the day and the wind will be blowing out at 10 mph in this one. Take the over.
|05-21-16||Orioles -118 v. Angels||3-1||Win||100||20 h 33 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels are 2-12 in Matt Shoemaker's last 14 home starts. While the Angels bats have been better of late, there is no doubt that Baltimore has the much better lineup here.
Kevin Gausman is a guy who I think has a good future ahead of him. He has a nice array of pitches and decent command for a youngster.
Shoemaker gives up a lot of fly balls, and he is prone to a home run problem. Baltimore is loaded with power hitters and that makes them a bad matchup for him.
The Angels bullpen is a major weakness, while Baltimore has a very good bullpen. This price is too cheap to pass up. Take Baltimore.
|05-21-16||Rangers v. Astros -1.5||2-1||Loss||-100||18 h 39 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Houston Astros lineup is better suited for hitting lefties. Cesar Ramos is a terrible starting pitcher, and he won't go deep into the game here. That's a good thing as well since the Texas bullpen is now the second worst bullpen in the majors. Houston should be able to put up quite a few runs in this game.
Texas' lineup ranks 25th in weighted on base average when playing on the road. They are banged up right now, and they haven't been producing in the last few games.
Houston's Mike Fiers has been good at home the last couple years and he is backed by a very good bullpen. I like the value on the runline. Take Houston -1.5.
|05-21-16||Rays -120 v. Tigers||4-5||Loss||-120||14 h 38 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have been awful this year against left handed pitching. Detroit has a .270 team average against right handed pitchers. They have only a .224 average against lefties.
Drew Smyly is one of the more underrated left handed pitchers in baseball. Smyly has a very high strike out and swinging strikes rate. He has improved his control as well.
Smyly was a Tiger a couple years ago, and he should have some extra incentive to try to grab a win against them here.
Fulmer is a decent prospect for Detroit, but he appears to have been rushed to the bigs. The Tampa Bay offense is on fire of late, and I expect him to have trouble slowing them down in this one.
Tampa Bay is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games overall. The Tigers are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a lefty. A 31-0 angle. Take Tampa Bay.
|05-21-16||Mariners v. Reds OVER 8||4-0||Loss||-113||13 h 14 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is just epic bad this year. There is no other way to put it. Cincinnati simply can't find anyone to come in and get outs. The rotation is short-handed now, and John Lamb is reportedly starting this game despite a minor thumb injury on his pitching hand. That's not good at all to try to pitch through, and Seattle is a lineup that hits left-handed pitchers very well.
Lamb doesn't pitch deep into the game very often, and that means several innings of the awful Reds bullpen. That's definitely a big plus for the over.
Felix Hernandez has been very hittable on the road this year, and his velocity is down a bit right now. The Reds have some power hitters and Hernandez is giving up the long ball this year.
The over is 4-0-1 in the Mariners last 5 interleague road games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games vs a left handed starter. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a road team with a 60% or higher road win percentage. The over is 5-0 in Lamb's last 5 on four days of rest. A 33-0 angle. Take the over.
|05-21-16||Yankees -123 v. A's||5-1||Win||100||14 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka in this one. While Tanaka has had a couple bad starts in a row, he should be a good for a bounce back in this pitcher's park against an Oakland lineup that is short-handed.
Josh Reddick is out with an injury and that is a huge loss for the Oakland offense. Reddick was playing the best baseball of his career this year. Oakland doesn't have offensive depth, and the A's are going to struggle to score runs this year.
Tanaka's main problem of late has been the long ball, but it is tough to hit too many of those in this park.
The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball and that's a big boost for the late innings too. Take New York.
|05-21-16||Yankees v. A's UNDER 7.5||5-1||Win||100||13 h 9 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees should get a good start from Masahiro Tanaka, who slumped against two solid offenses in his last two home starts.
He'll go against a much worse offense here, and it will be in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. Oakland is in a lot more trouble offensively now without Josh Reddick (out with an injury). Oakland already has multiple injuries on offense, and this team wasn't scoring many runs even with Reddick.
Sean Manaea has good stuff and should be a good pitcher on his home field. Manaea is coming off his best big league start in his last outing. He faces a Yankees offense that has been very bad this year against lefties.
Take the under.
|05-20-16||Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5||4-1||Loss||-100||17 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Miami Marlins have crushed Tanner Roark in the past couple years. Roark had a 5.79 ERA against Miami last year, and so far this year in 3 starts he has a miserable 8.40 ERA against Miami.
I would rate Justin Nicolino as one of the worst left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. He has proven nothing in the majors, and he really hasn't even pitched all that well in the minors either. Washington is destroying left handed pitching so far this year. The Nationals are averaging a whopping 5.93 runs per game against left handed pitchers this year.
Both teams should get plenty of scoring opportunities. Take the over here.
|05-20-16||Rays v. Tigers OVER 8.5||7-5||Win||100||17 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense wasn't going to struggle for too long. They underachieved early in the year, but this is a really good lineup and I expect them to score a lot this year. Detroit has gotten hot of late and is now 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.
Tampa Bay just torched the Toronto pitching staff in their series at Toronto, and the Rays come in with lots of momentum. The Rays are first in the majors in home runs, and Anibal Sanchez has been having trouble keeping the ball in the park.
Sanchez has consistently been giving up 4 runs or so in 6 innings, and that's obviously not good enough. His performances have been very consistently bad this year.
Matt Andriese has pitched well in his first two starts, but those were against the Angels and Oakland. This is a much tougher test for him.
The over is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in Sanchez's last 8 starts after the team scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts during game one of a series. The over is 4-0-2 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. A 36-0 angle. Take the over.
|05-20-16||Brewers v. Mets -1.5||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||18 h 38 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Milwaukee Brewers ride in on a high after beating the Chicago Cubs in two of their last three games. Milwaukee isn't a good team though, and this is a really bad matchup for them.
New York starts Stephen Matz here. Matz is coming off a minor injury and will likely throw less innings here, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing as this Mets bullpen is tremendous and they are very deep.
Wily Peralta has been absolutely awful this year. Peralta has been quoted as saying he has no confidence right now, and it is showing on the mound.
Peralta has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of his 8 starts this year. He also has given up at least a hit per inning on average in every single start this year. Peralta is also walking 4 batters per 9 innings, which is the highest ever in his career. Those are scary numbers, and I'll look to fade him.
This Mets offense was shut down by Strasburg yesterday, but I expect them to hit Peralta today. In addition, the Brewers bullpen is second to last in my bullpen rankings (only the Reds bullpen is worse).
With the moneyline being too expensive, I'm taking the nice value price on the runline. Take New York -1.5 big. MLB TOP Play of the Week
|05-19-16||Giants v. Padres UNDER 7||3-1||Win||100||21 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants pitching staff has been great lately. Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants in this one, and he has been throwing the ball extremely well. Samardzija was sharp in his last outing at Chase Field in Arizona, and this time around he'll be in San Diego at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Samardzija is getting ahead of batters at a great rate lately, and his fastball has been working very well.
James Shields has a great 2.53 ERA in his career against San Francisco. Shields is a guy who uses the park to his advantage very well, and he can usually pitch pretty deep into a game.
The Padres offense is one of the worst in baseball, and the Giants offense has been inconsistent at best of late. A total of 7 isn't that low in a game played at PetCo Park.
The under is 9-0 in the Giants last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in Samardzija's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Shields' last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 64-0 angle. Take the under.
|05-19-16||Rockies v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5||7-13||Loss||-110||18 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jon Gray is still an underrated pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. It may be tough for him to put up good numbers at Coors Field, but he has already been doing it on the road. Gray has a career 2.18 ERA on the road, and a 1.38 ERA in two road starts this year. He has dominating stuff, and he is getting better with pitch sequencing as time goes by.
Michael Wacha has been a great pitcher at home throughout his career with the Cardinals. The Rockies lineup is still solid, but it is far less imposing than it was a couple years ago. Busch Stadium is a good park for pitchers, and Wacha does a great job utilizing that to his benefit.
The Rockies bullpen is improved and the Cardinals bullpen is very good. Take the under here.
|05-19-16||Indians v. Reds OVER 8.5||7-2||Win||100||17 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds square off one more time in this intrastate battle. Cleveland has won the first three games this week, and they look to pull off a sweep here.
Josh Tomlin has a solid ERA so far this year, but his advanced statistics suggest he has been a bit lucky. Opponents batting average on balls in play is only .250. While I don't think Tomlin is a bad pitcher, I do believe he is a little worse than he has shown so far this year.
Tim Adleman is a guy who was thrown into the starting rotation faster than anyone expected in Cincinnati, because everyone has been getting injured for the Reds. Adleman hasn't pitched badly in his first three starts, but he has only thrown 16 innings in 3 starts. Adleman only made 3 starts in Triple A before getting jumped up to the bigs. He is a candidate for regression as he has left 84.2% of runners on base this year.
The Reds bullpen is historically bad, and with Adleman not pitching deep into the game, that plays a big role in why I like this selection.
The over is 4-0-1 in the Indians last 5 following a win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 7-0 in Tomlin's last 7 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 8-0 in Tomlin's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 41-0 angle. Take the over.
|05-18-16||Yankees v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||4-2||Loss||-108||20 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees offense has finally started showing signs of life after underachieving for a very long time this year. Jacoby Ellsbury is back in the lineup, and he is key to their success. Arizona's offense is strong at home, and the Diamondbacks still have one of the best hitters in the majors in Paul Goldschmitt.
Chase Field's roof is expected to be open for this one. The roof open makes almost a full run of difference in the expected run scoring according to my database. The ball flies much better with the roof open.
Shelby Miller gets the ball for the Diamondbacks and he has more walks than strikeouts this year. Miller has zero confidence now, and the Yankees are completely capable of putting up a big inning or two against him.
Nate Eovaldi is very inconsistent and he has trouble with the home run ball, which is bad with the roof open here in Phoenix.
The over is 5-0 in Eovaldi's last 5 interleague starts. The over is 3-1-1 in Miller's last 5 home starts. Take the over.
|05-18-16||Indians v. Reds OVER 8.5||8-7||Win||100||5 h 4 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is the worst bullpen in the major leagues in dozens of years. There is no one down there to count on, and as a unit they have a ridiculously bad 6.46 ERA. That's more than a full run worse than the second worst bullpen in baseball.
Brandon Finnegan typically doesn't pitch deep into the game because he struggles with control issues. The Indians are likely to get several innings of chances to score on the Reds bullpen. Cleveland just scored 15 and 13 runs on the Reds the last two days. They probably won't do that again, but I think they can score several here.
Mike Clevinger makes his first big league start for the Indians. Clevinger isn't a highly prized prospect, and his stuff is only mediocre. The Reds should get chances to score on him throughout this one.
Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire with a small strike zone.
The over is 3-0-1 in the Indians last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in Finnegan's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 15-0 angle. Take the over.
|05-17-16||Angels v. Dodgers -1.5||1-5||Win||100||23 h 60 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I'm not normally a fan of laying this much juice on the runline, but everything adds up to this being a strong play.
Clayton Kershaw struggled a bit early in his career against the Angels, but last year he had two starts against them and had an ERA of 0.60. This Angels lineup isn't very good anymore. Mike Trout doesn't have enough help.
The Dodgers lineup has underachieved so far this year. Jered Weaver could be just the type of guy they need to face to get things going. Weaver has been awful this year. He was bad last year, and his velocity is down even more this year and his ERA is even higher. Weaver will be a guy I look to fade this year, especially on the road. While he has good numbers against the Dodgers, none of those starts came in the past three years. He is a much different pitcher now than he was 4 years ago.
Kershaw's in great form now, and I expect the Dodgers to win comfortably. Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|05-17-16||Red Sox -122 v. Royals||4-8||Loss||-122||20 h 38 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* This one got rained out on Monday. I still like it on Tuesday.
The Boston Red Sox have been the best hitting team in the majors so far this year, and they are much better against right handed pitching than lefties.
Boston is averaging a whopping 6.03 runs per game on the year. The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in their last seven games. In five of those seven games, they have scored at least 10 runs. That's incredible success on offense. There's no way they can keep that up long-term, but baseball is a game of streaks and until this team cools off I'd rather back them than play against them.
Another big reason for this play is the form of Yordano Ventura. Ventura has an ERA of 4.62 on the year, but advanced statistics suggest he has been fortunate and his ERA should be north of 5.
The Kansas City offense has really struggled this year. Only Eric Hosmer has been reliable of late on offense. Rick Porcello's advanced numbers are the best of his career so far, and it's certainly possible he is improving since he is still only 27 years old.
The Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 following a win. They are 0-5 in their last 5 Monday games. Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 21-0 angle. Take Boston.
|05-17-16||Cubs -1.5 v. Brewers||2-4||Loss||-105||20 h 51 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Chicago Cubs go up against Chase Anderson and the Milwaukee Brewers here. Anderson has some potential, but he has no confidence right now and he is in terrible form.
Anderson has allowed 6 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. This Cubs lineup will be the best lineup he has faced all year. Anderson is struggling with his command, and this Cubs lineup is great at working the count and getting bases on balls.
Kyle Hendricks is an underrated starter. Hendricks is very solid to start with, and he has a great track record against the Brewers. In fact, he has a tremendous 1.49 ERA in seven career starts against them. Even more impressive is his 0.49 ERA in three starts at Miller Park.
The Milwaukee bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, while the Cubs bullpen is excellent. Likewise, the Cubs have a great defense while the Brewers defense isn't good at all.
The Cubs aren't a fluke, and this is a mismatch all the way around. Take Chicago -1.5.
|05-17-16||Twins v. Tigers OVER 9.5||2-7||Loss||-109||5 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have scored 6 and 10 runs in their last two games. It was only a matter of time until the Tigers offense got going, and I think they should be able to keep it going against Phil Hughes tonight.
Detroit's lineup collectively has a .315 average against Hughes, and Hughes has struggled badly so far this year. I don't expect him to have much success slowing down this Tigers offense tonight.
On the other side, Mike Pelfrey is terrible, and this Twins lineup is showing signs of heating up as well. Minnesota has scored at least 5 runs in each of their last four games. Pelfrey is the type of guy who always puts people on base, so the Twins will have their chances again here.
The over is 6-0-2 in the Twins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. Detroit. A 30-0 angle. Take the over.
|05-17-16||Nationals v. Mets -118||0-2||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Max Scherzer is a tremendous pitcher, but he has been inconsistent this year. It's going to be tough to be at his best following a 20 strikeout game where he threw more pitchers than he is accustomed to throwing. This is a tough spot for him against a good Mets team and a tremendous young ace in Noah Syndergaard.
While most people realize Syndergaard is very good, I still believe he is being underrated by many people including the oddsmakers. Syndergaard has amazing command of his pitches for being this young, and he is a gamer out on the mound. I love the way he competes.
Syndergaard has been at his best in the past when he faces good opponents. He faces the Mets primary competition in the NL East tonight. I think Syndergaard puts up a dominating performance as the Mets win. Take New York.
|05-15-16||Angels v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||3-0||Win||100||15 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels have been hitting the ball better in this series so far, but I don't expect it to continue here. This Angels lineup is extremely weak. Mike Trout is a star and Calhoun and Pujols are solid, but outside of that this Angels order is very weak. The depth of this lineup is among the worst in baseball.
Felix Hernandez isn't quite what he was in the past, but he still has good stuff, and he is pitching at home where he is tremendous. Hernandez has a sparkling 1.43 ERA in his last 12 starts vs. the Angels as well, so he has dominated this team.
Hector Santiago has improved a lot in the past couple years, and I like his chances of slowing down Seattle here.
Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the business. He will give both pitchers the corners and we should see plenty of strikeouts. The under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games behind home plate.
Take the under.
|05-15-16||Padres v. Brewers OVER 9||2-3||Loss||-110||13 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These two starters are the primary reason for the over play here. Cesar Vargas isn't a highly touted guy, and he's been really bad in his first couple starts on the road. Milwaukee's offense has been crushing the baseball in the last few games.
Zach Davies has been consistently bad this year. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Davies is walking almost exactly as many guys as he is striking out right now, and that's a terrible sign. The Padres offense isn't good, but they have been better in recent days and I think they score several here.
Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom 6 or 8 in the league, so late runs shouldn't come as a surprise in this one either. Take the over.
|05-15-16||White Sox v. Yankees -1.5||5-7||Win||119||12 h 50 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka in this one. Tanaka is coming off a rare bad outing last game. Tanaka had allowed 2 earned runs or less in seven straight starts before giving up 6 runs against Kansas City last start. I don't expect his struggles to continue here.
The White Sox offense is worse than league average. Chicago is a better team this year, but they are due for some regression after quite a few fortunate close wins early in the season.
Miguel Gonzalez starts for the White Sox, and he isn't good. Gonzalez has peripherals that suggest he should have about a 5 ERA on a consistent basis, and that's what his ERA is right now. The Yankees expect Jacoby Ellsbury back in the lineup here, and with Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran hitting the ball better of late, this lineup should be much more potent.
The White Sox bullpen is good, but it doesn't compare to the Yankees bullpen. I don't expect this one to be close. Take New York -1.5.
|05-14-16||Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||5-3||Loss||-100||17 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants have played two straight games that have finished under the total despite the roof being open at Chase Field. While both of those games were low scoring, the final scores weren't quite indicative of how many scoring chances there were.
Both days there were a bunch of guys left on base by both teams, and on Saturday there were 3 balls hit off the wall that were nearly home runs.
Jake Peavy and Patrick Corbin are both having problems right now. Peavy just isn't good anymore. He is too old and he's lost his stuff. His fastball is much slower and his walk rate is the highest of his career right now. Corbin has pitched four times with the roof open at Chase Field and he has a 6.75 ERA in those games.
The roof is slated to be open on Saturday with temperatures of 98 degrees and winds blowing out at 15 mph. That's perfect conditions for the ball to fly very well. Both teams should plate several runs in this one.
Take the over.
|05-14-16||Blue Jays -125 v. Rangers||5-6||Loss||-125||20 h 6 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays have several important advantages in this game. First, Marco Estrada is a better pitcher than Colby Lewis. Second, the Blue Jays clearly have the more potent offense. Third, the Jays bullpen is much better than the Rangers bullpen.
Colby Lewis is pure fade material at home for me. Lewis has a 3.20 ERA on the year, but his FIP is 5.14. This suggests he has had some really good luck thus far and Toronto is the type of team who can change that around pretty quickly.
R.A. Dickey shut down Texas yesterday, and for some teams it can be tough to hit a regular pitcher the day after facing a knuckleballer.
Estrada has a stellar 1.50 ERA in three career starts vs. Texas. Even more impressive is the fact that he has a 1.50 ERA in two starts in Texas, which is tough on pitchers.
Lewis has an ERA above 5 in the past two years at home.
|05-14-16||Tigers v. Orioles OVER 9.5||3-9||Win||101||18 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Saturday Night KNOCKOUT* I had the over in last night's Tigers/Orioles game, and that play failed badly as the final finished 1-0. I don't think that's going to happen again here. In the matchup last night between Tillman and Verlander there were two pitchers capable of throwing great games on certain occasions. Anibal Sanchez and Mike Wright do not seem to fit that mold right now.
Anibal Sanchez has zero confidence right now and his mechanics are off. Sanchez has a 5.89 ERA, and it isn't because of bad luck. Sanchez just hasn't been good. He is walking 5.4 batters per nine innings which is easily a career high. He's become a guy who gives up a lot of homers the last couple years, and this Orioles lineup definitely has some great home run hitters.
Mike Wright hasn't proven himself in the big leagues yet. While it's possible he will end up being a good pitcher, I don't think he is ready yet. Wright doesn't miss enough bats.
These are two great offenses and with these guys on the mound, I expect to see a lot of runs.
The over is 18-6-3 in Sanchez's last 27 starts. The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two in Baltimore. Take the over.
|05-13-16||Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||3-1||Loss||-115||20 h 59 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is scoring almost 5 runs per game at home this year. San Francisco's offense is always much better away from home, since they play in such a strong pitcher's park.
Chase Field is a tremendous park for overs with the roof open in the warm weather. The roof is slated to be open for this one with a game time temperature of 99 degrees. The ball should be flying extremely well here.
Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my database ranks him in the top 25% of over umpires in the majors.
Jeff Samardzija has an ERA above 5 when pitching in Arizona and Shelby Miller has been a mess all year. Miller is walking way too many people, and the Giants have the hitters to make him pay for his mistakes.
Take the over.
|05-13-16||Giants -140 v. Diamondbacks||Top||3-1||Win||100||21 h 5 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The San Francisco Giants send Jeff Samardzija to the mound for this one. Samardzija comes into this game in great form. He has been very sharp in his last few outings.
Samardzija has a career ERA of 2.51 in May. While this isn't something I weight very heavily, it is true that he is a better first half of the year pitcher by a wide margin in his career.
Shelby Miller is having all sorts of mechanical problems and some speculate he may be injured. There are warning signs all over the place on Miller. He has walked 6.44 batters per 9 innings this year, which is worse than any other starter in the majors. He has fewer strikeouts than walks on the season.
Miller is having severe problems with the long ball as well. Chase Field's roof will be open for this game, and the Giants have plenty of guys capable of taking him deep. Miller ranks very close to the bottom of the league so far this year in swinging strike percentages. Basically, he just isn't getting many guys to swing and miss. All of his peripherals suggest this poor start is no fluke, he has just been very bad.
The Giants have the better lineup, the slightly better defense, the slightly better bullpen, and the much better starting pitcher.
San Francisco was swept at home by Arizona in April in a four game series, and I have no doubt that revenge will be on their minds throughout this series.
Take San Francisco big. MLB TOP Play of the Week
|05-13-16||A's v. Rays UNDER 7||6-3||Loss||-105||17 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays both have bad lineups. These are two offenses that I expect to see scuffle frequently throughout the course of the season.
While Tampa Bay is better against lefties than righties, Rich Hill has really impressed me so far this year. Hill hasn't given up more than 4 hits in any of his last five starts. The Rays are likely to have a tough time stringing together hits.
Jake Odorizzi is a guy I'm high on right now. Odorizzi has always been good at home, and now he is maturing into a complete pitcher. He is good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the big innings.
Take the under.