*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Baltimore Orioles send Kevin Gausman to the mound here, and I'm very high on Gausman. He has fantastic stuff, and he is a breakout candidate. I expect him to be the Orioles best starting pitcher very soon (if not this year). Gausman has great movement on his pitches, and his slurve is really impressive. 

Mat Latos simply isn't as good as he has pitched so far this year. It's also important to remember that he hasn't faced a good offense this year. The Orioles offense is excellent. 

These two bullpens are both great, but the Orioles have the better pitcher and the much better offense. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* Chris Archer is a better pitcher than he has shown to this point in the season. Archer has a long history of being excellent against this Toronto lineup. No doubt the Blue Jays have a strong offense, but Archer has been great against them. In fact, in 188 at bats, the Blue Jays lineup has a .186 average against him. 

J.A. Happ has an ERA above 5 at Tampa Bay, and the Rays are sneaky good against lefties. While the Rays offense as a whole is weak, they have several guys who hit lefties very well. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Friday MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles might be better than most expected this year, but they still aren't as good as their early season record would indicate. The Orioles have a great bullpen and a very good offense, but their starting rotation is a big problem. 

The Chicago White Sox are definitely a much improved team this year thanks to some offseason acquisitions. Chicago has a shutdown bullpen and an improved defense. The White Sox offense struggled early in the year, but they have started to swing the bat better of late.

Chicago has a big starting pitching edge here. Carlos Rodon is going to be a star in this league. He is beginning to mature, and this is a guy who has shutdown stuff. His slider is one of the best pitches in baseball. 

Baltimore's Mike Wright is a guy I'm low on. Wright hasn't done anything in the majors to suggest he can consistently get major league lineups out. Wright had an ERA above 6 last year, and he once again has an ERA above 6 this year. 

Rodon has a fantastic 2.82 career ERA on the road in his young career. The Orioles are better against right handed pitching than they are against lefties. 

Baltimore is 2-7 in Wright's last 9 starts. They are 1-5 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 7-3 in Rodon's last 10 road starts. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chase Field roof will be open again on Thursday night, and I'll once again be on the over when the Cardinals take on the Diamondbacks. I've gotten the win from the last two days with the over, and the over also cashed in game one of this series when I didn't have a play on the game. I believe this fourth game of the series will also go over the posted total.

Chase Field is a totally different park with the roof open. The ball flies extremely well with the open roof. Those long fly ball outs become home runs.

Michael Wacha is a good pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home than on the road. Rubby De La Rosa is extremely inconsistent, and I don't think he'll put a second straight strong start together. If you look at his career numbers, the Cardinals have crushed him in the past.

The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Wacha's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. The over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 games between these teams. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Los Angeles Angels start Nick Tropeano here. Tropeano has a great ERA so far this year, but I'm skeptical of his ability to keep up his current level. Tropeano doesn't have high end stuff, and he has been inconsistent in the past. He has also faced Oakland, Minnesota, and Seattle in his first three starts. The Royals will be the best offense he has gone against yet. 

Chris Young is almost 37 years old and his stuff is declining. Young has done a nice job for the Royals, but I think his good run is coming to an end. Young gives up a bunch of fly balls, and the Angels certainly have some power hitters in their lineup. 

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is an over umpire who won't give these guys the corners. 

With two starting pitchers with a lot of question marks, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals have gone over the posted total in the first two games in this series, and I think this one will go over as well. Chase Field's roof is slated to be open for this one, and that's a huge deal. The ball flies extremely well with the roof open, and I believe the roof being open is worth almost a full run to the total.

Adam Wainwright and Patrick Corbin are both good pitchers, but both are trying to recover from major injuries. Both of these guys have been less than stellar so far this year. As they try to work out the kinks, it's been apparent that they won't be quite as good as they were in the past. Wainwright in particular has dropped off quite a bit.

With the roof open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Chicago White Sox are playing some great baseball right now. Chicago is going for the sweep in this series, and that is part of the reason why the price here is so great. A lot of people subscribe to the theory that you should never take a team who is going for a sweep on the road. While I'm more cautious to do it, when the price is right, I'm not going to let that keep me off the game altogether.

Toronto is a good team, but I'm not sure they are great. They have several question marks. Chicago is a much improved team with a better lineup and a much better bullpen than they have had in recent years. 

Jose Quintana starts for the White Sox here, and he is one of the most underrated lefties in baseball. Quintana has a sparkling 1.88 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto. Marco Estrada is nothing better than a mediocre pitcher, and this price is too high. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Houston Astros have been in a slump of late. They have lost two tough games in a row. Here, they turn to their stopper Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is coming off an uncharacteristically bad performance in Texas, but lots of pitchers have had ugly performances in Texas and Keuchel has pitched very well against the Mariners in the past.

Seattle is 0-5 in their last 5 home games against left handed pitching. The Mariners have a lot of relievers banged up right now. Nate Karns doesn't go deep into games often. Karns walks way too many batters, and Keuchel has very good control. 

The Astros are 35-17 in Keuchel's last 52 starts. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a great park for hitters with the roof open. Long-term data suggests the roof being open is worth at least one full run to the total in Arizona. 

Shelby Miller has been a mess this year. He's walking all kinds of batters, and the Cardinals have plenty of patient hitters. Arizona's offense is very capable of scoring runs at home, especially with the roof open and the ball flying well. 

The Cardinals have given Carlos Martinez great run support, and Miller is putting so many people on right now. 

For the roof being open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles for a second straight night. Baltimore was shut out by the Rays on Monday night. While this Orioles offense is very good, I think they could struggle again here against Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him this year. Odorizzi has great splits at home in his career.

Ubaldo Jimenez can sometimes struggle with control, but he'll get a lot of help here from Ron Kulpa being the home plate umpire. Kulpa has the single best under record in baseball in the past ten years. Kulpa is a strike calling machine, and Jimenez and Odorizzi will both be getting the corners in this one.

Baltimore's bullpen is great and their defense is excellent as well. Tampa Bay is one of the worst offense in the league against right handed pitching. 

The under is 7-0-1 in the Orioles last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after giving up 2 runs or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 road starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. 

The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 3-0-1 in Odorizzi's last 4 on turf. The under is 2-0-2 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Rich Hill has been having a nice year, but I don't expect him to quiet this Detroit lineup. The Tigers offense is excellent. They slumped for the 3 game series against Cleveland, but they were back in a big way last night. Detroit is going to score a lot of runs this year.

The Oakland offense isn't very good, but Mike Pelfrey has a way of making bad offenses look good. Quite frankly, Pelfrey is a total gas can right now. Pelfrey has been stranding runners at an epic rate and his performances have been much worse than his pitching lines would indicate. Pelfrey is going to get crushed soon. You just can't count on leaving the bases loaded constantly as he has done this year.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. While I certainly know that Toronto can crush left-handed pitching, Sale is far from an average lefty. Sale throws his best early in the season, and he is in great form right now. 

R.A. Dickey pitches for Toronto, and he's been struggling this year. The White Sox lineup slumped early in the year, but they have heated up in the past few days. Chicago has an advantage in the bullpen and the White Sox are a much improved team this year. 

I expected this price to be -140 or so. At this price, I have to take Chicago with Sale on the mound. Take Chicago. 

*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Seattle Mariners are in a really good spot here. Seattle played an afternoon game in Los Angeles yesterday and got home early. Seattle's opponent here is Houston, and the Astros had to fly to Seattle very late last night.

Houston's game at home against Boston on Sunday Night Baseball didn't end until after 1 am eastern. The Astros flew in the middle of the night and the trip to Seattle is about as far as any trip they could get. If that isn't enough, factor in that Houston is coming off a very difficult loss where they had chances to win in extra innings and couldn't quite pull it off.

Doug Fister's stuff is declining rapidly, while Taijuan Walker is starting to command his pitches better. Walker has a high upside, and I think he could breakout this season.

Houston is 16-37 in their last 53 road games. Seattle is 16-5 in Walker's last 21 starts. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The New York Mets send Noah Syndergaard to the hill in this one. Syndergaard has the best stuff of anyone in this Mets rotation, and that's saying a lot since the Mets also have Harvey and Degrom. Syndergaard has an ERA of less than 1 this year, and he faces a Reds lineup that looked hapless against him last year.

Raisel Iglesias is a good young pitcher for the Reds, but he doesn't go all that deep into the game. The Reds bullpen is a major weakness for this team, and the Mets extending a lead in the 7th and 8th innings wouldn't surprise me one bit. 

Cincinnati overachieved early in the year, but they are going to be a bad team this year. The Mets underachieved, and I think they are going to go on a really nice run. Take New York -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Detroit Tigers were just swept at home by the Cleveland Indians. The Indians are a quality team, and Detroit's offense scored only 5 runs in those games. Don't expect the Tigers offense to stay cold for long though. This Tigers offense is loaded with stars and they aren't going to be kept quiet in the long run. A middle of the order with Upton, Cabrera and Martinez is tremendous.

Kendall Graveman has been very inconsistent in his time in the majors. Jordan Zimmermann is about as consistent as any starter in the big leagues. Zimmermann is usually good for 6 or 7 strong innings. The Oakland offense is extremely weak.

This line dropped to the point where it was a must play, especially with the Tigers looking to stop the bleeding against a subpar team. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Eickhoff and Peralta start for the Phillies and Brewers here. Eickhoff has slightly deceptive stuff, but he should regress to the mean after an excellent start. The Brewers still have several good bats in their lineup.

Wily Peralta is a mess right now. Peralta has spoken recently about his loss of confidence, and he is putting people on base at an amazingly high rate. 

I'm not high on either starter, and then the bullpens are just awful. These are two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. 

Jim Wolf is the umpire here and he rates an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone. 

The over is 7-1 in Peralta's last 8 starts. The over is 9-2-2 in Wolf's last 13 behind home plate. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Los Angeles Angels offense is very weak outside of Mike Trout. Trout is obviously a stud, but there is very little help for him in this lineup. Seattle has gotten a little better on offense this year, but they still have holes in their lineup. 

Wade Miley has been hit hard this year, but he has a long history that suggests he is better than his numbers this year appear. Matt Shoemaker is much better at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and there isn't a better under umpire in the game than him. Miller has a massive strike zone and he loves to ring batters up.

A very interesting note here: both of these pitchers have much better splits in day games in their career vs. night games. Wade Miley has a 3.41 ERA in day games (4.27 at night). Matt Shoemaker has a 2.72 ERA in day games (3.94 at night). 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.3 or higher. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. 

The under is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of the series. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 40-0 angle. 

Take the under big. TOP Play of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Eickhoff and Peralta start for the Phillies and Brewers here. Eickhoff has slightly deceptive stuff, but he should regress to the mean after an excellent start. The Brewers still have several good bats in their lineup.

Wily Peralta is a mess right now. Peralta has spoken recently about his loss of confidence, and he is putting people on base at an amazingly high rate. 

I'm not high on either starter, and then the bullpens are just awful. These are two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. 

Jim Wolf is the umpire here and he rates an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone. 

The over is 7-1 in Peralta's last 8 starts. The over is 9-2-2 in Wolf's last 13 behind home plate. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday's MLB BEST Bet* Jose Fernandez is absolutely one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. His upside is ridiculously high. Fernandez has shut down stuff, and the Giants offense has been scuffling so far this year, especially on their home field. 

Jake Peavy is a medicore or slightly worse starter at this stage in his career. If Fernandez has his best stuff working in this game, Peavy won't be able to keep up. The Marlins offense has underachieved a bit so far this year, and I see this as an opportunity for them.

This price really surprised me. I expected to see Miami -130 or slightly more, so this is a much better value than I expected. 

Miami is 8-0 in Fernandez's last 8 Saturday starts. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts vs. the NL West. San Francisco is 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. Take Miami. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie Smasher* The Los Angeles Angels aren't as good as they have been in recent years. Mike Trout is excellent, but the lineup around him isn't good. The Mariners are a team on the rise. Seattle also has King Felix on the hill for this one. While this wasn't initially a game I expected to pick, I also didn't think I'd be able to get +100 on Felix Hernandez here. Hector Santiago has had a lot of good luck in the past year, and his command is poor. The Mariners are 9-3 in Felix Hernandez's last 12 starts vs. the Angels. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Chase Field roof will be open for this game, and that's very important. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open because of the dry heat. The ball flies extremely well in these conditions.

Juan Nicasio takes on Rubby De La Rosa here. Nicasio had a great spring, but he has been shaky in his last couple games, and this is his toughest spot of the year thus far.

De La Rosa has been much worse when pitching at Arizona than anywhere else. I believe that is because he really struggles when the roof is open at Chase Field. De La Rosa has a very high 5.58 ERA at Chase Field in his career. 

The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in De La Rosa's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 37-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in the American League. Cleveland has an improved lineup this year, and they are facing a pitcher who is clearly in decline in Anibal Sanchez.

Corey Kluber has some troubling signs in his peripherals. I still believe Kluber is a good pitcher, but he's definitely not at the level he was a couple years ago. It's important to note though that even when Kluber was pitching at his best, Detroit was a team that gave him a lot more trouble than the average team. Kluber has a 4.72 ERA in his career against Detroit.

Anibal Sanchez is definitely not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Sanchez doesn't have the same strike out pitches and his ERA and other indicators have dropped off severely in the last two years. 

We have a good over umpire here in Adrian Johnson. 

The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 games involving the Indians. The over is 6-0 in Sanchez's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the Tigers. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The St. Louis Cardinals aren't quite as good as they have been in recent years, but they are still a quality team. San Diego had a nice series against Pittsburgh, but that was primarily because of good pitching matchups. This Padres offense has been awful against right handed pitching so far this year. 

Adam Wainwright has been inconsistent this year so far, but he has an ERA of less than 2 in his career against San Diego. This park should be good to him. Andrew Cashner is walking too many guys and is relying way too much on his fastball for me to be interested in backing him. 

The Cardinals take game one in this series.

Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star Friday's BEST Bet* The Houston Astros are off to a slow start, but I do still believe this is a good team. Houston has a lot of youngsters who are continually getting better. This is a farm system that really stockpiled talent and did the rebuild the right way.

Boston is coming off a demoralizing loss to Tampa Bay yesterday. They put up 8 runs with David Price pitching and lost 12-8 thanks to some strange decisions by John Farrell late in the game with the bullpen usage. 

Collin McHugh is a good pitcher who does a nice job keeping the ball down. Steven Wright isn't a good pitcher. He walks too many guys and baserunners can have a field day against him. The Astros have several speedsters who could take advantage.

The early sharp money is on the Astros, and I definitely agree with that opinion. 

Boston is 1-5 in Wright's last 6 road starts. Houston is 19-7 in McHugh's last 26 home starts. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees have been in a major slump of late, but this team is better than they are playing right now. The Yankees have what I believe is the best bullpen in baseball, and that is important in a game like this. I'm not terribly high on Matt Moore or C.C. Sabathia. The Rays bullpen is subpar. The Yankees bullpen is awesome. 

The weather may be a factor here too. Rain is expected to pass through New York during the game at some point, which could mean we see the bullpens longer than expected. That's a good thing for the home team. 

At this price, I'm on New York. Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Thursday's MLB BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers don't have great hitters at the bottom of the order, but from one through five in the order no one is better in all of baseball. Kansas City has a group of very professional hitters who make you work and don't beat themselves.

Mike Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all, and I'll be very surprised if he can silence the KC bats like Jordan Zimmermann did last night. Edinson Volquez is better, but I still don't see him as a top flight starter.

The career numbers are staggering when it comes to the pitchers vs. the opposition here. The Tigers have a great .391 OBP against Volquez. The Royals have an amazing .427 OBP against Pelfrey.

The over is 40-18-4 in Detroit's last 62 road games. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in a get away game early Thursday afternoon. Johnny Cueto and Shelby Miller are on the mound in this one.

Shelby Miller is off to a bad start this year, but I do believe Miller is a much better pitcher than he has shown so far this year. Miller has a spectacular 2.66 ERA in day games (3.60 at night).

Johnny Cueto has a sparkling 2.58 ERA in day games in his career (3.74 at night). Cueto's best month of the year is April as well.

We are likely to see some regulars sitting out with this being a get away day game. This is a big pitcher's park, and both teams have solid defenses. 

The under is 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals are a much improved team this year. Washington had all kinds of talent and a terrible manager and bad team chemistry last year. Dusty Baker isn't a good manager when it comes to in-game decisions, but the guys like to play hard for him and this Washington team is looking good right now.

Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Scherzer gets a lot of strikeouts, and this Miami Marlins team is full of free swingers. This is a day game and Scherzer's day game ERA is nearly 3 tenths of a run lower than his night game ERA in his career. Miami hitters have only a .280 OBP against Scherzer.

Tom Koehler has a career 4.46 ERA in day games, which is nearly half a run worse than his 3.99 ERA at night. Bryce Harper crushes Koehler, and Harper is locked in right now. Washington is the much better team.

Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller has been one of the very best under umpires in the game for many years in a row. He loves to punch out guys, and he should get plenty of chances in this game. 

Zack Greinke is off to a slow start, but he will pitch well again this year. Greinke has a stellar 1.96 ERA in more than 36 innings with Miller behind home plate. Madison Bumgarner has a tremendous 1.80 ERA in his 20 innings with Miller behind the dish.

Greinke has a 1.78 ERA pitching at San Francisco. Bumgarner has a 2.54 ERA against Arizona in more than 100 innings. 

The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Jeff Locke in this one, and Locke has been terrible away from home in his career. Locke has a 4.37 ERA on the road in his career and that number rises to 5.45 in his last 15 road starts. 

Drew Pomeranz starts for the Padres here, and I'm high on him this year. Pomeranz has developed a new pitch and that seems to be making a big difference for him. This is a guy who all the scouts loved a few years ago, it seems like he just bloomed late. 

The Padres have a .260 OBP against righties, but they have a .320 OBP against lefties, so I think they can get to Locke. The Pirates bullpen is way down this year as well, and the Padres pen is improved. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Houston Astros aren't as bad as their record would indicate, but Cole Hamels at this price is worth a play. Doug Fister is in decline, and his velocity continues to drop. Fister doesn't have the strikeout pitch needed to put guys away.

The Texas lineup can put up runs at home in bunches. Cole Hamels has pitched very well at home, and the Astros lineup has a low career OBP of .296 against Hamels.

The market has moved this one down to territory where the Rangers are a good value. Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Early Play* The Chicago White Sox start Chris Sale in this one. Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has been amazing so far this year, and in his career, April and May are his best months. Sale has tremendous numbers against the Angels, and this Angels team is much weaker than they have been in the past.

Chicago has a big bullpen advantage in this one, and they have the better lineup as well. Another key advantage that is often overlooked is the White Sox have the better defense. 

This is a little more than I usually lay on the moneyline, but I think it is justified with Sale on the mound. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he has traditionally been one of the very best over umpires in the business. Both Carlos Martinez and Kyle Hendricks have struggled against the opposing lineup in this one. 

Chicago's offense is one of the best in baseball. It's a deep lineup, and one that will make pitchers work very hard this year. St. Louis' offense isn't up to that same level, but they are certainly better than the average lineup.

The posted total here is extremely low. While get away day games can be good for the under, that hasn't been the case in Holbrook's games. The over is 39-13-3 in Holbrook's last 55 Wednesday games behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres offense might be the worst in all of baseball. This is a terrible lineup in every way. They have no stars, and they have very little depth. They'll be up against a good young pitcher in Patrick Corbin. I think Corbin will have a very nice season this year. 

The Arizona lineup isn't very good outside of Paul Goldschmitt either. They have a bad bottom of the order.

These teams played a 14 inning game on Saturday night. I think that means both Corbin and Robbie Erlin will pitch deep into the game to save the bullpen. Since I like both of these lefties pretty well that's a good thing. 

Doug Eddings is a great under umpire, and he's behind the dish here. Eddings has the biggest strike zone of any umpire in the majors. The under is a whopping 37-16-5 in Eddings last 58 Sunday games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cincinnati Reds aren't a good team. Over the course of the season, I think that will become abundantly clear. This is coming from a guy who likes to root for the Reds. They have been my favorite team since I was very young, but I have to call it like I see it. Cincinnati has some decent young pitching, but the bullpen is terrible and the lineup is subpar. 

We faded the Reds with the Cardinals -1.5 on Friday and they were blown away in that game. The Reds bounced back and won Saturday which sets up another fade spot on Sunday. Michael Wacha has a sparkling 1.87 ERA in 10 appearances against the Reds. Jon Moscot is a guy with a limited upside and questionable command. He's making his first start after a significant injury as well. Mismatch all the way here.

The Reds are 5-22 in their last 27 Sunday games. They are 22-52 in their last 74 in St. Louis. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last 5 starts vs. the Reds. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Colby Lewis at home is always worth at least an over lean. Lewis has been outright awful at home in the last few years. He routinely has an ERA north of 5 here. He'll be facing an excellent Orioles offense in this game as well. Baltimore is going to put up a lot of runs this year.

Yovani Gallardo is a veteran who isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't dominant in any way. The Texas lineup can put up runs especially when playing at home. The middle of this order is a good one. 

Pat Hoberg is behind the plate and he has a small strike zone, so he'll pinch the zone on both pitchers. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* The Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels meet Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. The Twins got their first win of the season last night in a 5-4 contest. 

Jered Weaver starts for the Angels and in the past that was always a good thing. Weaver is no longer the same pitcher though. Weaver throws 80 mph fastballs and has some terrible peripheral numbers. In 2014, Weaver had a 4.70 ERA on the road. Last year, Weaver had a 6.01 ERA on the road. 

Ricky Nolasco isn't a particularly good pitcher, and he's been particularly bad when pitching at Target Field. Nolasco has a 4.89 ERA at Target Field in his career. Nolasco has been hit hard by the Angels also. This Angels lineup has a tremendous .356 average against Nolasco all time.

John Tumpane is the umpire here and he's a slight over umpire which helps the cause as well.

The over is 6-1 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. Minnesota. The over is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play

*3 Star MLB Giants/Dodgers Friday Night CASH* It's Madison Bumgarner vs. Clayton Kershaw once again. We've been treated to this matchup a lot here early in the season. Bumgarner and Kershaw bring out the best in each other, and that's why this posted total is so low. While I'm not usually keen on betting under this low of a number, I still think it's a good value.

Bumgarner has an amazing 2.12 career ERA at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw has a career 1.57 ERA against the Giants. He has never had a yearly ERA higher than 2.25 against San Francisco. The Giants hitters have a miserable .199 on base percentage against Kershaw.

Both of these guys are great at pitching deep into the game, and this should be a great low scoring game.

The under is a whopping 21-5-2 in Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. the Giants. The under is 12-3-1 in MadBum's last 16 starts vs. the Dodgers and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Cincinnati Reds may have started the year out surprisingly well, but they aren't a good team. Cincinnati has a subpar lineup and a terrible bullpen. The starting rotation has some talented youngsters in it, but I don't see Tim Melville as one of those guys.

Melville's line looks okay from his Major League debut against Pittsburgh last week, but I watched that game and Melville has major command issues. He was helped by Pittsburgh being undisciplined in big at bats and he managed to get out of big jams every inning. Melville won't always get that lucky, and he's up against a good St. Louis team here that has a pretty good lineup.

Carlos Martinez is a quality starter. The Reds have two starters dinged up in Cozart and Mesoraco. Cincinnati is unlikely to get many runs here. 

Cincinnati has been totally dominated by St. Louis for the past few years. The Reds are 21-51 in their last 72 at St. Louis. The Reds are also an awful 38-83 in their last 121 road games. I won't lay more than -150 in Major League Baseball, so the run line is my play here. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Situational Spot Play* The Detroit Tigers had a series in Pittsburgh that concluded on Thursday. They now travel all the way to Houston to take on the Astros. The Astros have been scuffling of late, while the Tigers are scorching hot. 

Why is this a good situational play on the Astros? Dallas Keuchel is the team's stopper, and he starts here against Mike Pelfrey who is definitely the Tigers worst starter. In fact, there aren't many starters in the majors worse than Pelfrey. On the other hand, there aren't many pitchers in the majors better than Keuchel. 

The Tigers lineup is scary good, but Keuchel shut down everyone at home last year. Detroit's bullpen is much weaker than Houston's as well. Houston bounces back with Keuchel on the hill. Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles aren't as good as they have looked early in the season. Baltimore does have a good lineup, but their rotation is a major problem. Chris Tillman is the ace for the Orioles, and he isn't very good. Tillman is an inconsistent starter who should struggle with a pretty good Texas lineup. 

On the other side, Cole Hamels is starting for the Texas Rangers. Hamels has been remarkably consistent for Texas since coming to town. Though this is undoubtedly a park that is unkind to pitchers overall, Hamels has pitched very well in Texas. Hamels is a guy I feel like I know what I'm getting from, and that's definitely crucial.

The Rangers are 7-0 in Hamels' last 7 home starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game one of a series. They are 12-0 in his last 12 starts on grass. Baltimore is 0-4 in their last 4 games in Texas. A 27-0 angle. Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller has been the single most reliable under umpire for me in the past few seasons. Miller has a massive strike zone that pitchers love and hitters constantly get frustrated by. This one is a get away day game in the early afternoon. It's likely that some of the better hitters will sit this game out. That combined with the strong under umpire here makes this one a play for me.

Wily Peralta is a wild card. Peralta has pitched well in day games in the past though, and he has Miller behind the dish here. Jaime Garcia has been brilliant at home throughout his career, and he has been amazing against Milwaukee as well. Garcia has a 2.90 ERA in more than 100 career innings against Milwaukee. He has a 2.70 ERA in his career at home.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays offense isn't impressive. Tampa Bay is going to be shutdown by good pitchers a lot this year. I believe Danny Salazar is on the verge of breaking out and becoming an excellent starter. He has all the necessary tools. Salazar dominated Tampa Bay on the road last year, and I think he'll pitch well again here.

Chris Archer's career numbers against Cleveland aren't very good, but those are misleading. None of those starts came last year when Archer took it to the next level. Also, one terrible start skewed his numbers against the Tribe, and that was in his rookie season. Archer is definitely one of the best pitchers in the American League, and he's been at his best early in the season over the course of his career.

Mike Winters is a bit of an under umpire, so that's a nice boost, and this one is a get away day game, which means some solid hitters may be sitting this game out. 

The under is 4-0-2 in the Rays last 6 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Salazar's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 on turf. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* These two offenses are really hitting the ball well in this series so far, and I see plenty of reason to believe that will continue in the series finale. Ubaldo Jimenez has a career 5.90 ERA at Fenway Park. Jimenez has a poor 4.69 ERA in April in his career as well, so he is a slow starter.

Joe Kelly has a career 4.65 ERA in the first half of the season (it is 3.48 in the second half), and the Red Sox starter has had serious problems against Baltimore. Kelly started three games against Baltimore last year, and he had a 7.71 ERA in those games. 

Big innings are always very possible with these two lineups, and these two starting pitchers have been victimized by those huge innings frequently in the past. 

The over is 3-0-1 in the Orioles last 4 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in the Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The over is 8-0 in Kelly's last 8 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Kelly's last 6 starts after the Red Sox allowed 5 runs or more last game. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Yankees cashed as a small underdog for me yesterday. I'm back on the Yankees ML for Wednesday night. This one is a smaller play, but I still do like the value here. Michael Pineda has an ERA of 1.50 in his last three starts at Toronto. Pineda is coming off a rare bad start in his first game of the year. Pineda is a first half pitcher who has excelled in April in the past. While this Toronto lineup is excellent, Pineda has the stuff to bounce back.

J.A. Happ isn't a bad pitcher, but this Yankees lineup is one of the better lineups in the majors, and I expect them to create plenty of scoring chances. The Yankees bullpen gives them a big advantage if the game is close late. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Washington Nationals start Stephen Strasburg here. While some consider Strasburg a big disappointment, it's important to remember he is only 27 years old and his stuff is elite. As his command improves, I think he can still turn into a very good starter with improved consistency. 

The Atlanta Braves are a terrible baseball team this year. Atlanta's offense is among the worst in the majors, and there is no single area of this team that is any good. Matt Wisler has had some nice starts at home in his career, but his career road ERA is 6.75 (11 games). Wisler has pitched in three games in Washington against the Nationals and he's allowed a whopping 13 runs in 7 and 2/3 innings. 

The Braves are 11-43 in their last 54 road games. Take Washington -1.5 here. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. Derek Holland had three bad outings against Seattle last year. Before that, he had been dominant against Seattle. Holland has quality stuff, and he has been lights out when pitching in Seattle. Holland has a career 2.39 ERA in Seattle. 

Wade Miley seems like a nice fit for Safeco. Miley is a fly ball pitcher and that's a good thing in a place with a big outfield like this one. Boston's Fenway Park hurt Miley last year, and he should fare much better in Seattle. 

The Rangers lineup is badly banged up right now, and Seattle's lineup is good in the middle, but it isn't very deep.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and no umpire has a bigger strike zone than Eddings. 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees have Masahiro Tanaka on the mound for this one. Tanaka has faced Toronto 7 times in his career thus far, and he has a brilliant 2.23 ERA in those games. Very few pitchers are going to put up those types of numbers up against this stellar Toronto offense, but Tanaka has great raw stuff.

New York has a very good lineup as well, and they'll face Aaron Sanchez here. While Sanchez has good stuff also, his command is a much bigger question mark. Sanchez shut down Tampa Bay in the opener, but shutting down Tampa is one thing, and shutting down New York should prove much tougher. 

The Yankees bullpen gives them a clear advantage as well. At plus money, I have to side with the Yankees. The Yankees are 5-2 in Tanaka's last 7 starts vs. Toronto. Take New York. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. A top five of Kinsler, Upton, Cabrera, Martinez, and Martinez is tremendous.

Pittsburgh's offense is an underrated offense. Obviously Andrew McCutchen is great, but Marte and Polanco are quickly turning into stars as well. The Pirates lineup is a very deep one.

Juan Nicasio has looked good this year so far, but facing this Tigers lineup is a very stiff test. I don't think he'll fare very well here. Anibal Sanchez isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. The Pirates lineup will test him throughout.

The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the NL Central. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in Sanchez's last 5 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB Moneyline TOP Play of Week* The Kansas City Royals start Chris Young in this one and he's on my fade list, especially on the road. Young is a massive fly ball pitcher, and Houston has a bunch of home run hitters. This is a difficult matchup for Young.

Collin McHugh's numbers were down just a touch last year, but he has been very solid overall. McHugh does a great job keeping the ball on the ground, and this Astros defense is getting much better behind him.

Houston is playing their home opener here, while Kansas City is playing their first road game of the year. The Royals came from behind to get past Houston in the playoffs last year, and there is definitely some revenge on the minds of Houston in this game.

Houston is 46-20 in their last 66 home games. Kansas City is 1-4 in their last 5 games in Houston. Houston is 18-4 in McHugh's last 22 home starts. They are 9-0 in his last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Houston big. MLB Moneyline TOP Play of Week.

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves start Bud Norris in this one. Norris started against Washington at home last week and allowed 3 runs in a solid start. Norris is a much better pitcher at home though than on the road. Norris has a 3.68 ERA at home in his career and 5.29 ERA on the road. Additionally, Norris' worst month of the season has historically been April.

Max Scherzer has amazing stuff, and this Braves lineup is a mess. Inciarte was one of their better players, and he already went down with an injury. The Braves bullpen is terrible, and they lost another key guy yesterday to injury. 

Atlanta is 11-41 in their last 52 road games. They are 2-14 in their last 16 at Washington. I think Scherzer dominates and the Nationals win comfortably. Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cubs and Diamondbacks play their series finale on Sunday afternoon. Chase Field is a great hitters park with the roof open, but that advantage for the hitters goes away when the roof closes. The roof will be closed for this game.

Jake Arrieta's run in the last couple months of the season last year was epic. Arrieta was truly out of this world good during that run. He started right where he left off with an amazing first start this year. Arrieta's cutter is tremendous, and his command of all of his pitches is a big strength. The Diamondbacks lineup has a career .185 average against Arrieta.

Shelby Miller had a bad first outing, but that was with the roof open, and Miller was excellent last season. The Cubs lost a key bat in Schwarber when he went down earlier this week. Chicago's offense will still be very good, but I think Miller's raw stuff should slow them down a bit.

The under is 10-0-2 in Arrieta's last 12 Sunday starts. The under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Sunday games. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The St. Louis Cardinals start Adam Wainwright in this one. Wainwright pitched well in his first start of the year. He is coming back from an injury, but Wainwright is going up against one of the worst offenses in baseball here. Atlanta is going to be terrible this season.

Williams Perez is a youngster with a very low upside. Perez pitches to contact far more than I like to see. Perez has a career 5.06 ERA at home. He also has an awful 8.44 ERA in day games. This one is a day game.

The Cardinals were beaten up in Pittsburgh, but they are a much better team than Atlanta. The only thing limiting the size of this play is the question about Wainwright as he eases back from an injury. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeff Locke starts for the Pirates here. Locke is a below average starter. He can log some innings, but his stuff just isn't very good. He struggles to put guys away. 

Tim Melville makes his major league debut on Sunday for the Reds. Melville hasn't been a major prospect in the past, and I'm not very high on his chances of shutting down an above average offense like Pittsburgh's in his first start.

Joe West is the umpire in this one, and that helps this play a lot. West is an umpire that likes to shrink the strike zone and tick off the pitchers. West should frustrate both guys, and I see him being a tough umpire for a new starter like Melville to draw in their debut.

Look for both teams to get a lot of runners on base. As long as they can cash in a decent amount of chances, this one should go over.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in West's last 5 Sunday games behind home plate. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST BET* The Texas Rangers have the much deeper lineup here, and they also have the more consistent starting pitcher. Cole Hamels has been amazing against the Angels in his career. This Angels lineup has a career average of .147 against him. 

Los Angeles is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers in the early going this year. This isn't the same Angels team from the past. Mike Trout is a tremendous player, but the team overall isn't good. Texas isn't an elite team, but they are certainly better than the Angels right now.

With the better pitcher and the much better lineup, I'm glad to grab the plus money price. 

The Rangers are 11-0 in Hamels' last 11 starts on grass. The Rangers are 8-0 in Hamels' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. the AL West. The Rangers are 7-0 in his last 7 starts when they scored 5 runs or more last game. A 33-0 angle. Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The San Diego Padres offense didn't score a run in three home games against the Dodgers to start the season. They put up 13 yesterday against Colorado. I had a strong lean on the Padres ML in that game and passed, and I'm not going to pass them up a second time in a row. This is a game that I believe should be lined at -110 on both sides. We are getting too much value here. 

Jorge De La Rosa has been hit very hard by this Padres lineup in recent years. Drew Pomeranz was better last year, and he has added a fourth pitch. Pomeranz has a lot of potential. 

Colorado isn't a good team, and they shouldn't be laying this kind of a price. Grab the underdog. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Saturday night. The weather here is a big part of the equation. The wind will be blowing in from center at 20-25 mph through this game. This is a pitcher's park to start with, and with that kind of wind it will be tough on the hitters.

Bartolo Colon has a good history against the Phillies, and this Phillies lineup is a mess outside of a couple guys. Maikel Franco is questionable for this one with an injury, and he is their biggest hitting star. 

Vincent Velasquez is going to be a very good big league pitcher. He has tremendous stuff and I give him a good chance to pitch well here. The Mets offense is solid, but they aren't spectacular.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He has been the single best under umpire for me in the past five years. Miller has a huge strike zone and he loves to ring people up. 

Chris Sale is one of the top five most dominant pitchers in the game, and he should fare very well with Miller behind the dish. The Indians start Cody Anderson. Anderson is only mediocre, but I'm not convinced the White Sox offense is all that good.

The weather here will be helpful with a slight wind blowing in and chilly temperatures. US Cellular can be a very good hitter park in the summer when the ball is carrying, but that won't be the case here.

With Miller behind the plate, I like this to be a very low scoring game. The under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings in Chicago between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* C.C. Sabathia and Mike Pelfrey start for the Yankees and Tigers in this game. Sabathia's worst month of the year in his career has been April, and it isn't even close. Pelfrey's second worst month of the year is April. We have two slow starters in this one.

I took the over in Friday's game between these two and was burned when the Yankees sat just about everyone and then couldn't score a run. They should be able to put up runs just fine against Pelfrey and a poor bullpen here. Detroit is excellent against left handed pitching and Sabathia is certainly in decline. 

Cold weather actually hasn't been bad for overs in the past 10 years. The wind will be blowing out at 20 mph in this one. Both offenses are stacked. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Friday Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the second game of this series. 

Matt Cain isn't the same pitcher he used to be. Last year, he had an ERA of 5.20 at AT&T Park, which is obviously a pitcher-friendly park. Cain will face a very good Dodgers lineup here, and I don't think he'll fare very well. Cain had a 7.71 ERA in Spring Training this year. 

At the same time, this Giants lineup is much improved. They have some young talent in Panik and Belt, and those guys are coming into their own. Hunter Pence is healthy and swinging the bat very well. They'll be up against Ross Stripling, who will be making his MLB debut here. Stripling has never faced anyone above Double A, and his stuff is average. This is a tough spot for him.

Two very good offenses and two big question marks starting on the mound. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs lit up the scoreboard last night, and I like the chances of this being a high scoring game as well. Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open and the roof is listed as being open. I waited until the official word came from the Diamondbacks on the status of the roof for making this pick. The ball flies much better at Chase Field with an open roof.

The Cubs lineup is absolutely stacked. Ray is nothing more than an average pitcher. The DBacks bullpen is below average right now. Jason Hammel isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't a guy who will completely shutdown many offenses. 

The over is 7-1 in Hammel's last 8 starts. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF MLB Early Money* The Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees have two of the best lineups in baseball. Both of these teams are going to score a lot of runs this year. 

This is Detroit's home opener. The weather is going to be nasty for this one. The high here is expected to be 39 degrees. You might think that would be bad for scoring, but that's not what the numbers say. Since 2005, the over has gone 59-47 in MLB games with a temperature of 40 degrees or lower. 

Severino pitched great last year for the Yankees, but he is still an inconsistent youngster. He had some batted ball luck last year that will tough to replicate. On the other side, Jordan Zimmermann steps out of the weak NL East and into the American League, where he'll face much deeper lineups. I like Zimmermann overall, but his upside is far more limited this year in my opinion.

The over is 6-1 in the Tigers last 7 following an off day. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Dodgers/Giants Rivalry CASH* The San Francisco Giants took 2 of 3 from Milwaukee and the Los Angeles Dodgers swept a three game series with San Diego to start the season. 

Los Angeles shutout the Padres in the entire series. The Dodgers pitching is good, but that was primarily about the Padres hitting being downright awful. Things will be a lot more difficult for them against an improved Giants lineup. 

Brandon Belt is coming into his own and Hunter Pence is healthy. The Giants have a lot more protection for Buster Posey than they have had in the past. 

Jake Peavy has held Dodgers hitters to a terrible .181 average in his career. This Dodgers offense is a good one, but the Dodgers have struggled badly to score at San Francisco in the past couple years. 

The first three wins came a little too easy for the Dodgers, and I'll fade them in San Francisco where the Giants have taken 8 of the last 10 games between these rivals. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves offense will be one of the worst in baseball this year. The Washington offense is good, but they aren't elite. Washington has an elite pitching staff. The Nationals rotation and bullpen are top notch. 

Stephen Strasburg hasn't been what some hyped him up to being a few years ago, but his peripheral stats aren't bad either. Strasburg has swing and miss type stuff, and the Braves have a lot of free swingers in this lineup. 

Bud Norris starts for Atlanta and he should benefit from moving to a pitcher-friendly park this year.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and the under is a stunning 194-138 since 2005 in Kulpa's games behind the plate. He consistently has a huge strike zone and that is a big help in this one.

The under is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an off day. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL East. The under is 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Braves last 7 games. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Atlanta. The under is 5-0 in Kulpa's last 5 games involving the Braves. A 64-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals narrowly lost in extra innings to Pittsburgh yesterday. St. Louis looks to avoid the sweep in this series on Wednesday night. 

Mike Leake was a nice pickup for the Cardinals in the offseason. Leake is a quality pitcher who has pitched very well on the road in the past. Leake has made 13 starts at PNC Park and has an impressive 2.46 ERA. He had a nice Spring Training, and I see him having a solid season.

Juan Nicasio is the starter for Pittsburgh. Nicasio didn't give up an earned run throughout Spring Training, but this is a case where I'm going to doubt these numbers until I see them in the regular season. Nicasio will likely be a decent pitcher for Pittsburgh, but I think he's overpriced based on the strong Spring. 

At this plus money price, I'll take the Cardinals trying to get their first win of the regular season. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off in a series finale in Arlington on Wednesday afternoon. I had Seattle in the first game of this series and that was a brutal loss as the Rangers won 3-2 despite only getting one hit all game. Seattle bounced back and thumped Texas 10-2 on Tuesday. 

Colby Lewis has been a terrible pitcher in Arlington for quite some time. Lewis has an ERA of 5.50 at home in his last two seasons. He also has an ERA of 5.34 in day games. Seattle should get plenty of scoring chances here. Wade Miley has been inconsistent and this Rangers lineup is pretty solid from top to bottom, especially against lefties. 

The Seattle bullpen is decent, but the Texas bullpen is awful. The wind is blowing out at 20 mph, which is key in this park. 

The over is 38-15-3 in Lewis' last 56 home starts. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* Scott Kazmir was roughed up in Spring Training this year. I'm not one who puts too much stock in Spring Training overall, but Kazmir's velocity was way down and that isn't a good sign. The Padres offense isn't all that good, but they should get some scoring chances against Kazmir if his velocity continues to be down.

James Shields is likely past the peak of his career. Shields gives up too many baserunners for me to like him too much. The Dodgers offense showed last night what they are capable of, and Shields hasn't been very good at PetCo Park in his time with the Padres.

This is an extremely low posted total. The changes at PetCo have made it less of a pitcher's park than in the past, and these two pitchers are hardly Kershaw and Bumgarner. A 3-3 game ensures a win with a total of only 6.5. 

The over is 12-3-1 in Shields' last 16 home starts. Take the over here. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies meet at Chase Field on Tuesday night. Chase Field is one of the very best parks for hitters when the roof is open, and the roof is projected to be open for this one with nice weather in Arizona right now. 

The Colorado Rockies should have some high scoring games this year when you factor in their strong lineup and terrible pitching. Colorado has a poor rotation and a ridiculously bad bullpen as well. 

Both teams have several power hitters and the ball should fly very well at Chase Field in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Value Play* Noah Syndergaard is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He has very good command of all of his pitches, and he has a tremendous upside. Chris Young is 36 years old and is on the downside of his career. Young is a pure fly ball pitcher who gives up quite a few home runs. The wind for this game is expected to be 25 to 30 mph out to left center field. That's not good for a guy like Chris Young. Solid price on the Mets. Take New York. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Sam Holbrook has been the #1 best bet for over bettors as far as MLB umpires are concerned in the last 5 years. The over is 172 and 132 in his games. Holbrook will make the pitchers put it down the heart of the plate a lot more than most guys will. Combine that with the fact that the wind is expected to be blowing out at 25 to 30 mph during the game, and this number is too low. 

Chris Young is a fly ball pitcher and Syndergaard has been less dominant on the road. 

The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in Syndergaard's last 7 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 following a win. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays were the single best team in the majors last year against left handed pitching. They are going to be amazing against lefties again this year. While I think Drew Smyly is a decent pitcher, he'll likely have a hard time shutting down this offense. 

R.A. Dickey hasn't been good at Tampa Bay in recent years. Dickey had a 5.00 ERA in 3 starts at Tampa Bay in 2014. In 2015, Dickey had an even worse ERA of 7.71 in two starts. He is at his worst in April and doesn't like the conditions at the dome in Tampa. 

The over is 7-0-1 in the Rays last 8 games during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0-1 in Dickey's last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0-3 in the last 7 games between these teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best offenses in baseball. They also have a very poor starting rotation led by Chris Tillman. Tillman shouldn't be an ace, but the Orioles have made him one by default since they are so thin and Kevin Gausman is injured. 

Minnesota overachieved last year, and the Twins have a terrible rotation and bullpen. Ervin Santana definitely doesn't have the stuff to be an ace at this point in his career. The Twins bullpen should be one of the worst in the majors this year.

Both offenses should see a bunch of scoring opportunities in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Best Bet* The Seattle Mariners send Felix Hernandez to the mound on Opening Day. That's been a winning formula in the past. Hernandez is a whopping 6-0 with a 1.49 ERA on Opening Day in his career. He isn't afraid of the big moments, and in Major League Baseball Opening Day is always a big deal. 

Texas has a good lineup, and they usually crush the ball at home, but Hernandez has a nice history in Texas. Cole Hamels has been a notoriously slow starter throughout the course of his career, saving his best work for the end of the regular season and the postseason. 

Seattle has a huge bullpen advantage here, which could be crucial. 

The Mariners are 5-0 in Hernandez's last 5 starts vs. Texas. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers and the San Francisco Giants meet on Monday afternoon. Madison Bumgarner is obviously the ace for the Giants, and Bumgarner has sparkling numbers against Milwaukee. In 8 career starts against Milwaukee, he has a 1.96 ERA. At Miller Park, Bumgarner has a 1.66 ERA in 3 career starts. Bumgarner is one of the best in the game, and this Brewers lineup isn't very good.

Wily Peralta isn't a true ace. Essentially, Milwaukee has him here because they have no other option. Peralta is inconsistent and he has been at his worst in the opening month of the season in his career. Giants hitters have a .432 on base percentage against him, so they have really done some major damage against him in the past.

This one is a mismatch all around. Take San Francisco -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Opening Sunday MONEYMAKER* The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates get things underway for this year's MLB action. Adam Wainwright hasn't pitched in a regular season game since last April. He struggled in Spring Training. Pittsburgh has hit him better than just about any other team in the majors. The Pirates expected starting lineup here has a .308 average all time against Wainwright.Francisco Liriano is a good pitcher, but he isn't a top of the league type of game. Liriano has had trouble against the Cardinals as well. St Louis hitters have a .343 on base percentage against Liriano.Both of these offenses are pretty good. These pitchers are quality pitchers, but there are real question marks on both here, and the total is only 6 runs.

The over is 15-4-5 in Wainwright's last 24 starts against Pittsburgh. The over is 12-3-1 in Liriano's last 16 home starts. Take the over.  

*3 Star Royals/Mets MLB MONEY!* Chris Young starts on three days rest here. It's a unique position for him to be in. Young is a 6'10 guy who relies on his over the top delivery that batters aren't used to, and the Mets should be better prepared for him now that they have seen him very recently. Young isn't accustomed to starting on 3 days rest obviously, and while he has been in good in the postseason, Young has had his fair share of blowups over the years. 

Steven Matz starts for the Mets. He's a solid lefty who struggles a bit to put contact hitters away. The Royals are great against lefties (.338 wOBA) and Kansas City strikes out less than any other team in the majors. Look for Kansas City to work the counts and hit Matz's fastball well. 

Both teams have had a lot of runners on base throughout this series so far, and I think that continues in this one. At this low total, I think the over has solid value. Take the over. 

*3 Star World Series Game 2 CASH* The New York Mets lost a heartbreaker last night. They probably should have won that game, and you could say it's tough to bounce back from a game like that, but they have the perfect guy throwing for them tonight. Jacob Degrom has been extremely clutch in the postseason. Degrom has allowed a total of 4 runs in 3 postseason starts. All three of those starts have come on the road against good offenses. Degrom has been far more consistent than Johnny Cueto, who will toe the rubber for the Royals in this one. Cueto allowed 4 runs in his first postseason start. He pitched a gem allowing only 2 runs in his second start. He then allowed 8 runs in 2 innings in Toronto. Cueto isn't locating his pitches well right now.

This game is vitally important to the Mets chances in this series. If they can get it back to 1-1, they have the upper hand going back home with favorable pitching matchups. The Mets are 13-3 in Degrom's last 16 road starts. Take New York. 

*3 Star Jays/Royals Game 2 CASH* The Kansas City Royals took a 1-0 lead on the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night. Toronto is the favored team in the series, and with them falling behind early in the series it looks to me like oddsmakers have inflated this line as they suspect the public wants to back Toronto here.

David Price was great in the regular season, but he hasn't been good in the postseason. Price has a 5.48 ERA in last seven postseason appearances. He appears to be throwing too many get ahead fastballs early in the count, and he's been punished for that. The Royals lineup has a very solid .293 average against him as well.

Yordano Ventura has good career numbers against Toronto. Blue Jays hitters have a .222 average against him. Edwin Encarnacion reinjured himself in Game 1 and is questionable for this one. Troy Tulowitzki is still playing in pain as well. This lineup isn't 100 percent.

The Royals are 9-3 in their last 12 home playoff games and they are this big of an underdog? I'll bite on the home underdog. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star Cubs/Cardinals Monday MONEY* The St. Louis Cardinals are very banged up. Chicago is one of the healthiest teams in the playoffs. Michael Wacha stumbles into the playoffs in bad form. He is having issues with his release point right now, and that has led to control problems and the tendency to allow more home runs. The Cubs obviously have a lot of home run hitters, and the wind is blowing out at 20 mph today at Wrigley Field. Jake Arrieta is locked in like no other pitcher right now. Arrieta has dominated just about everyone in the Cardinals lineup this year also. Arrieta does a great job keeping the ball in the park with his cutter. Value on the run line here. Take the Cubs -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Cole Hamels has been lights out in the postseason. In the divisional round of the playoffs, Hamels has an ERA of just a little under 1.50 in his career. Toronto's offense is very good, but the Blue Jays have a lot of pressure on them and this team isn't accustomed to playing in the postseason. Hamels has proven capable of pitching his best when it matters most.

Toronto's Marcus Stroman has fantastic stuff, and he went 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in the month of September. Stroman has a massive home/away split in his career. He has been much better when pitching at home. His career ERA at home is 2.35. Surprisingly enough, the under is 47-31-4 in the Jays home games this year.

Adrian Beltre and Josh Donaldson are both questionable in this one, and either or both of them being out obviously helps the under. Vic Carapazza is behind the plate here and he's ranked in the top 20% of 'under' umpires in my MLB Umpires database for five straight years now.

The under is 7-0-1 in the Rangers last 8 Divisional Playoff road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. A 14-0 angle. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NL Wild Card CASH* I'll start this out by saying I'm not excited at all about going against a guy on a run like Jake Arrieta is on, so that's not what this is about. Rather, I'm looking at this from all the other aspects of this game. Arrieta has been amazing, but the Pirates a really good team, especially on their home field. Arrieta hasn't pitched in the postseason and this will be a totally new experience. While Arrieta has been better, don't overlook how good Gerrit Cole is either. He has a 2.25 ERA against the Cubs and has only 5 walks and 32 strikeouts against them.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 53-28 at home this year, and we're getting them at significant plus money here. While Arrieta gives the Cubs a small edge at the starting pitching spot, the Pirates have many edges. Pittsburgh has a better bullpen and a better defense. Bullpens are really important this time of the year. In addition, Pittsburgh has playoff experience that this young Cubs team doesn't. 

The Pirates are 23-5 in Cole's last 28 home starts. They are 8-1 in Cole's last 9 starts vs. the Cubs. Take Pittsburgh as a home underdog here. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Los Angeles Angels have won 7 straight games, and they are right in the thick of the playoff race. They need this game, and all of the rest of them, very badly. This game means nothing to Oakland. Barry Zito will get the start here for Oakland. Zito has pitched at Triple A all year and his peripherals weren't good in Triple A for Oakland. In the big leagues, he pitched 1 inning of relief and gave up 2 runs against Houston. Then last weekend he got a start against San Francisco and was blasted for 6 hits and 4 runs in two innings of work. Garrett Richards has 8 quality starts in his last 10 outings. The Angels offense is finally coming alive. Take Los Angeles -1.5 here. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Minnesota Twins need this game badly. Minnesota trails by only 1.5 games in the AL Wild Card race, but they are behind both Houston and the Los Angeles Angels. There isn't any margin for error for the Twins. Ervin Santana has always been a streaky pitcher, and he has made five very good starts in a row. Detroit's offense has been disappointing down the stretch, and that makes sense to me. Detroit has a bunch of guys who aren't used to missing out on the playoffs, and they are just ready for the season to be over. 

Randy Wolf starts for Detroit in this one, and Wolf is a good guy to look to fade. The Twins hit left handed pitching much better than righties. On the opposite end, Detroit crushes lefties, but is middle of the pack against right handed pitching. I'll side with the better pitcher and the team with more to play for. Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays meet in what I believe will be a pitching duel on Saturday afternoon. Chris Archer is becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball, and David Price has been one of the best for several years now. Archer's numbers when pitching in Toronto are truly amazing. He has a brilliant 1.66 ERA in seven career starts there. He also has an ERA almost a full run lower during the daytime in his career. David Price has a career ERA of 2.95 during the day. Price has been throwing the best he has in his career down the stretch this season. The Rays offense doesn't have anyone who has hit Price well in the past. The under is a surprising 46-30-3 in Toronto's home games this year. The under is 43-31-5 in the Rays road games this year.

The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Price's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Toronto. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two overall. The under is 3-0-1 in Archer's last 4 starts vs. Toronto. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Pittsburgh Pirates are fighting for playoff positioning. They haven't given up in their pursuit of the Cardinals, and the Pirates are playing tremendous baseball right now. One of the main reasons Pittsburgh is so good is their ability to take starters that nobody else wanted in the past and turn them into good pitchers. Pittsburgh's pitching coach, Ray Searage, is one of the best in the business. He's done a great job with J.A. Happ since he came over to the Pirates. Happ has never been a bad starter, but he has taken the jump from a mediocre pitcher to a good one. Happ has a tremendous 1.86 ERA in his career against the Rockies.

Colorado is awful against left-handed pitching. The Rockies are 8-28 in their last 36 games against lefties. Colorado has nothing to play for, and they have a poor starter in Chris Rusin on the mound here. Collectively Pittsburgh's lineup has an amazing .305 average and a .369 on base percentage against Rusin. Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Happ's last 4 starts. The Rockies are 33-80 in their last 113 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The San Francisco Giants offense is a mess now. Injuries have crushed this Giants team. Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, Nori Aoki, and Brandon Belt are all out of the lineup. Jeremy Hellickson pitched well at San Francisco earlier this year. Hellickson has a career 3.19 ERA in the daytime (vs a 4.33 ERA at night). He also has a 1.16 ERA with umpire Ron Kulpa behind the plate. Tim Hudson is about to retire, and he badly wants to finish his career on a strong note. Hudson has a 3.34 daytime ERA in his career (3.56 at night). Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and he is a major strike caller. 65% of his games have stayed under the total in his last 160 behind the plate. With a reasonably high total of 8 at a pitcher's park, there is value on the under.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two in San Francisco. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 vs. these two overall. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians have finally started playing good baseball. I've expected this from them all year, but they struggled for a long time before playing well lately. Kansas City is 3-9 in their last 12. The Royals don't have nearly as much to play for as the Indians right now. Cleveland is 13-3 in their last 16 home games. Corey Kluber comes off the DL for this one, and he is definitely the Indians ace. Kluber won't be on a pitch count here, and he has a good history against KC. The Royals have an ugly .272 on base percentage as a team against Kluber. Yordano Ventura is on the mound for the Royals, and he has 5.15 ERA on the road this year. Short price on the home team here. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins have hit left handed pitching well this year, but they have a brutal .297 on base percentage against right handed pitching. Bartolo Colon has been absolutely dealing down the stretch. In Colon's last 17 innings pitched against Miami, he has allowed just one run. Rookie Adam Conley pitches here for the Marlins, and he has a 6.62 ERA on the road so far this season. The Mets were beaten on Tuesday, and they have plenty of reasons to need to keep winning for playoff positioning and home field advantage. Look for a nice bounce back from the Mets on Wednesday night. Take New York -1.5 here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees offense has been up and down lately, and being without Mark Teixeira certainly hurts the team a lot. New York is up against a very good pitcher in Jake Odorizzi here. Odorizzi has a 2.61 ERA at home this year, and in his young career, he has been great when pitching in Tampa. Adam Warren makes the spot start for the Yankees. Warren has been good lately, but he won't pitch too deep into the game. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the under though, since the Yankees clearly have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here. The under is 95-61 in his last 156 games behind the plate, and he is a massive strike caller, so that's a big help. Look for a low scoring contest.

The under is 7-0 in the Yankees last 7 games on turf. The under is 5-0 in Warren's last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Tampa Bay. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have hit left handed pitching much better than right handed pitching this year. Tampa Bay has a .307 On Base Percentage against righties, but an impressive .328 OBP against lefties. Boston has absolutely destroyed lefties in the past month. For the year overall, they have a .331 OBP against lefties. Rich Hill takes the mound for his first big league start this year. He's never been particularly successful in the big leagues. Drew Smyly is a decent pitcher, but he's up against a Boston team that has been absolutely raking of late. Both bullpens are awful right now, so there's plenty of potential for runs late in the game.

The over is 15-5-1 in the Red Sox last 21 games vs. a lefty. The over is 9-3 in the Rays last 12 home games. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Are the Braves even trying anymore? Atlanta has been hapless in the past few weeks, while the New York Mets are playing as well as anyone in baseball. Noah Syndergaard returns to the rotation here, and he has a great matchup against an offense that has been terrible of late. Syndergaard has struggled on the road, but this is a great chance for a breakthrough. Williams Perez has been bad in his last few outings, and he doesn't have high quality stuff. The Mets offense is absolutely locked in right now. Mismatch all the way around. I'll take the motivated team. Take the New York Mets -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Boston Red Sox have a lot of advantages in this one. Rick Porcello has been dealing since coming back from the disabled list. Porcello seems to be healthy again, and he has gotten some really bad batted ball luck this year that suggests he is better than his numbers indicate. Matt Moore has been getting hit around on a nightly basis lately. Boston beat him up less than two weeks ago at Fenway. Moore hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in his last seven starts. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of those 7 starts. Boston's offense has been crushing left handed pitching in the past month (second only to Toronto in that time). Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Pittsburgh Pirates have a bunch to play for right now. The Cincinnati Reds are ready for this year to be over. Pittsburgh still has an outside chance of catching the Cardinals, and they are pushing hard. Cincinnati sends their worst starting pitcher, Keyvius Sampson, to the mound for this one. He's been terrible for the past month. He has major control problems, and he can't pitch deep into the game. That puts the bad Reds bullpen in the game even longer. J.A. Happ starts for Pittsburgh, and he has been terrific of late. Happ has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in his last five starts! The Reds offense has been really bad lately outside of Joey Votto. I expected to see the Pirates at -160 or so. Good price here. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have been absolutely raking at home in the past couple months. This young Red Sox lineup has been hotter than any offense in baseball other than the team they are playing against in this one. Drew Hutchison starts for Toronto here, and he hasn't been good at all against the Red Sox in the past. Hutchison has a career road ERA of 5.88. He has a ridiculous 9.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park. Joe Kelly has been better of late, but I don't trust him against the best offense in baseball. Kelly has a 6.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Blue Jays. The Red Sox bullpen is a mess now as well, so after Kelly leaves things won't get better. The umpire here is Paul Schrieber, and he is well known for being a hitter-friendly umpire. He won't help the pitchers at all in this one. 

The over is 5-0 in the Jays last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 9-0 in Hutchison's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 home starts. The over is 4-0 in Hutchison's 4 career starts at Fenway. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Ubaldo Jimenez has a WHIP of 1.88 in his last three games. Jimenez continues to walk a bunch of batters and constantly work with people on base. That usually doesn't work against very good offenses like the Yankees. C.C. Sabathia has struggled all year, especially when pitching at home. The Orioles have good career numbers vs. Sabathia, and the Yankees have good career numbers vs. Jimenez. The home plate umpire here is Paul Emmel. The over is 23-4 in Emmel's last 27 games involving the Yankees. Emmel has one of the smallest strike zones in the majors. 

The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 on grass. The over is 3-0-1 in Jimenez's last 4 Wednesday starts. The over is 5-0-2 in his last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 after pitching less than 4 innings in his last outing. The over is 7-0 in Emmel's last 7 Wednesday games behind the plate in New York. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets and Washington Nationals meet in a very big game for both teams tonight in Washington. Matt Harvey and Jordan Zimmermann take the mound here. Harvey has been in the news with some questions about whether he would pitch in the playoffs. I think Harvey comes out here and dominates as he has done in the past against Washington. In 8 career starts vs. the Nationals, Harvey has a 0.99 ERA. Jordan Zimmermann has been great at home this year, and he is pitching well of late. I think he will shut down the Mets offense as well. This looks like a pitcher's duel to me. Harvey has allowed one run or less in 5 of his last 6 games. Zimmermann has a 2.4 ERA at home this year. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Tampa Bay Rays have a bad offense against right handed pitching, but against left-handed pitching they are solid. Tampa Bay has a .305 on base percentage against right handed pitching, and a .329 on base percentage against lefties. Detroit will start Randy Wolf in this one and Wolf isn't a good big league starter. He wasn't good a couple years ago, and now he is even worse. He was torched in his last start. Drew Smyly is a pretty decent starter. Detroit is missing shortstop Iglesias, and he had been big for them both in the field and at the plate. Tampa Bay's bullpen is middle of the road, while Detroit's is among the very worst in the majors. Detroit is 3-13 in their last 16 games. They are 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Tampa Bay is 9-2 in Smyly's last 11 starts. Detroit is 0-3 in Wolf's three starts for them. Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals have been a terrific under team all year. St. Louis has a great starting staff and a very good bullpen. John Lackey is very underrated at this stage of his career. He has been lights out when pitching at Busch Stadium. Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole is a pitcher I really like, and he's facing a Cardinals lineup that is without several of their best hitters. I see this one as a 2-1 or 3-2 type of pitching duel. Take the under in this Sunday night contest. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Houston Astros have been a terrific bet with Dallas Keuchel on the mound at home this year. Keuchel is absolutely dominating hitters at home, and this Twins offense doesn't typically step up against the top pitchers in baseball. Duffey is a decent prospect, but he has been shaky away from home, and Houston is a great team at home this year. At essentially even money, I like the run line. Take Houston -1.5. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Washington Nationals have finally started playing much better baseball. It may be too late in the end, but they are only 5 games back of the Mets and much stranger things have happened. Atlanta is playing awful baseball right now. I was low on them to start the year and they surprised me by hovering around .500. Now they have completely tanked and they appear to have packed it in for the season. Atlanta has now lost 11 straight games, and they are 12-40 in their last 52 games. In their 11 game losing streak, they have lost all 11 games by at least two runs! Joe Ross is a good prospect who has been sharp at home this year. Take Washington -1.5 big! MLB TOP Play of the Week