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Kyle Hunter MLB Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
05-23-11 Seattle Mariners v. Minnesota Twins -106 8-7 Loss -106 20 h 53 m Show
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* The Minnesota Twins are certainly not the team they were a couple years ago, but at this point I think the oddsmakers have gotten too low on them. Minnesota will get back Jim Thome and Jason Repko on Monday, and Delmon Young came back last week. This is a lineup that is slowly getting healthy once again. Seattle is far from a strong team, especially on the road. Jason Vargas has been great in his last three starts, but I think he's bound to have some regression soon. The Mariners are just 4-13 in Vargas' last 17 starts overall. Carl Pavano has pitched very well in his last two starts. Minnesota is 21-7 at home against the Mariners in their last 28 meetings. Take the Twins in this one!
05-23-11 Chicago White Sox v. Texas Rangers OVER 8.5 0-4 Loss -100 19 h 52 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox started the year out terribly on offense, but the lineup has finally got going of late. Chicago has scored 8 runs or more in three of their last four games. The Texas Rangers are expected to get Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz both back in the lineup on Monday, and that should make a huge difference for them. The Rangers have crushed lefties all year and I'll think they'll get to Danks in this one. The wind tunnel at Arlington should be pushing the ball out in this game. I think this is a good value on the over. Take over 8.5 here.
05-23-11 Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees OVER 9 7-3 Win 109 19 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total TKO* The New York Yankees offense appears to finally be waking up. The Yankees have scored 40 runs in their last six games. Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, and Derek Jeter have all been swinging a hot bat of late. Bartolo Colon has been pretty good this year, but he is certainly capable of giving up the long ball. Toronto's offense, anchored by Jose Bautista, is no slouch. Carlos Villaneuva is pitching for the Blue Jays and he hasn't started a game since 2009. I don't expect him to last long here. I think this will be a high scoring affair. Take the over.
05-23-11 Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians +112 2-3 Win 112 19 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Cleveland Indians are 18-4 at home this year, but they continue to get a lack of respect from the oddsmakers. Justin Masterson allowed just one run in his two appearances against the Red Sox last year, and he has a terrific 2.52 ERA so far this year. Clay Buchholz has been great of late too, but he threw 127 pitches in his last start and he has an ERA of slightly above 8 against the Indians in his career. The Red Sox played late last night in Boston while the Indians should be rested up nicely. I like the situational play here and the Indians at plus money at home is too good to pass up. Take Cleveland.
05-22-11 Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 4-5 Loss -115 14 h 35 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Gio Gonzalez and Johnathan Sanchez are two very talented left-handed starters. The Giants and Athletics both have a very weak offense. Gonzalez has the ability to shut down just about any team he faces, and the Giants just aren't good offensively right now. Sanchez has looked much better in his last couple starts, and I think he can tame the A's offense. The under is 9-3-1 in Gonzalez's last 13 road starts. The under is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 home games. I like the under in this one.
05-22-11 Colorado: U Jimenez v. Milwaukee: R Wolf OVER 7.5 1-3 Loss -121 13 h 33 m Show
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Ubaldo Jimenez has not looked like himself this year. He was shaky in his last start against the Giants, and the Brewers have a much stronger lineup. I expect Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Hart, etc. to get to Ubaldo in this one. Randy Wolf pitched well earlier this year, but his form has been poor of late. He has an 8.56 ERA in his last three starts overall. The Rockies lineup hasn't been hitting that well of late, but I think they'll burst out of their slump against a soft-throwing lefty like Wolf. Take the over big here.
05-22-11 Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 3-8 Loss -101 12 h 10 m Show
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* Hiroki Kuroda is a very underrated pitcher at this stage in his career. Kuroda has an ERA of just 2.80 on the year, but the books continue to think of him as a mediocre starter based on their lines. Edwin Jackson is a bit inconsistent, but I think he'll have the upper hand against a short-handed Los Angeles Dodgers offense. The Dodgers gave up on Jackson a few years ago, and I think he'll be motivated to shut them down here. The under is 13-6 in the Dodgers last 19 games overall. Take the under.
05-22-11 St. Louis Cardinals v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 9-8 Win 100 12 h 31 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* Jaime Garcia is a terrific left-handed pitcher, but the Royals have a made a living off hitting lefties well this year. The Royals were shutout yesterday and I think they'll bounce back on Sunday. Sean O'Sullivan pitches for Kansas City, and he has been getting hit hard of late. The Cardinals won't have Berkman, but Pujols and Holliday in the middle of the order is very tough. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph during this one. Angel Campos is the umpire here, and he has one of the smallest strike zones in the majors. Take the over.
05-21-11 Minnesota Twins v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 6-9 Win 100 21 h 36 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins offense has started to put it together as they slowly get healthy. Delmon Young is back in the lineup and Justin Morneau is hitting the ball well right now. Micah Owings is starting for Arizona, and I just don't think he is a good fit here. Owings gives up a lot of fly balls and Chase Field is a hitter's paradise when the roof is open (as I expect it will be Saturday). Scott Baker has been solid on the road this year, but this Arizona team can hit the ball well, and I think both teams will put up several runs Saturday. Take the over.
05-21-11 Seattle Mariners v. San Diego Padres OVER 6 4-0 Loss -100 21 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* I rarely play an 'over' with Seattle or San Diego, but I feel this number is just set too low. Clayton Richard hasn't been in good form at all of late. Richard has an ERA of 7.17 in his last three starts. Pineda is very good, but he hasn't been as good on the road as he has been at home. The over is 8-3 in Richard's last 11 starts. The Padres offense has shown some signs of life in the last couple weeks, and the Mariners hit left-handers much better than right-handers. I like the value on the over in this one.
05-21-11 Detroit Tigers -121 v. Pittsburgh Pirates 2-6 Loss -121 18 h 33 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* I simply don't believe the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to be near .500 for very long this year. They have fought hard so far this year, but Pittsburgh has a lot of holes in their lineup. The Tigers are a solid team with Martinez, Cabrera, and Austin Jackson who is heating up nicely of late. Max Scherzer has been one of the best starters in the majors so far this year and I think he can quiet this Pittsburgh offense. The Tigers are 7-2 in Scherzer's last 9 starts. Take Detroit here.
05-21-11 Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 1-2 Win 100 15 h 54 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Homer Bailey has looked good in his starts so far this year. He had an ERA under one in his AAA rehab starts, and he has an ERA under 2 in his starts in the majors. Bailey is throwing strikes much more frequently than he has in the past. Everyone keeps waiting for Josh Tomlin to have a bad game, but he just continues to hit his spot and nibble at the corners. Tomlin has a 2.56 ERA for the year. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this game, and he is my single favorite 'under' umpire in the majors. Miller has a huge strike zone and I think both of these pitchers will benefit. Take the under here.
05-21-11 Washington Nationals +142 v. Baltimore Orioles 3-8 Loss -100 15 h 45 m Show
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Washington Nationals had a huge offensive night in Baltimore last night. I don't expect them to repeat that performance, but I do think the oddsmakers are too low on the Nationals in this one. The Nationals are 7-2 in John Lannan's last 9 road starts. The Baltimore Orioles don't hit lefties well at all. In fact, the Orioles average just 2.92 runs against lefties. Jeremy Guthrie is a decent pitcher for Baltimore, but the Orioles are 1-6 in his last 7 starts. Brian Roberts and Derrek Lee are both out, and I don't think the Orioles should be laying this kind of price. Take the Nationals.
05-21-11 Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox -1.5 2-9 Win 150 13 h 14 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Chicago White Sox were beaten in dramatic fashion last night. The Dodgers had some unlikely heroes in their come from behind win in Chicago. The White Sox have been the best Interleague team in baseball over the last few years, and I think they'll bounce back here. Chicago is 39-16 in their last 55 Interleague games. Mark Buerhle is on the hill and the Sox are 23-6 in his last 29 Interleague starts. Jon Garland isn't particular strong on the road, the Dodgers are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. The Dodgers lineup is very short-handed now and I think the White Sox will win this one comfortable. White Sox -1.5 is the play.
05-20-11 Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 6-4 Loss -110 3 h 13 m Show
*3 Star Hidden GEM Total* Lance Barksdale is behind the dish here and he is a terrific 'under' umpire. He calls more than 64% of pitches a strike in the last year, which is much higher than the league average. Phillip Humber continues to be underrated and he should be able to work the corners against a poor Dodgers offense. Ted Lilly has fared well in the past with Barksdale and this White Sox team is hitting just .225 this year against lefties. The wind is blowing in from left field slightly here, so that should help as well. I like the under in this one.
05-20-11 New York Mets v. New York Yankees OVER 9 2-1 Loss -120 17 h 32 m Show
*3 Star Yankees/Mets BEST Bet Winner* The Mets and Yankees will square off tonight in the Bronx. The Yankees offense burst out in a big way last night with 13 runs against Baltimore. New York has what may be the best lineup in all of baseball, and I think they'll finish the year near the top in runs scored. R.A. Dickey had a nice year in 2010, but he has regressed a lot this year. In two of his last three starts he has allowed six earned runs. Dickey has an ERA of 5.08 on the year. Garcia has been fairly good, but I don't think he'll pitch a shutout here against a Mets team with Beltran, Reyes, and Bay. The over is 5-1 in the Yankees last 6 interleague games. The over is 6-2 in Dickey's last 8 starts. This my BEST Bet play of the day. Take the over.
05-20-11 Washington Nationals v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 17-5 Loss -120 16 h 23 m Show
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* Jason Marquis has been keeping the ball down this year and getting a lot of ground balls. Jake Arrieta has come along very nicely in his second year in the majors. Arrieta has a 4.03 ERA and Marquis a 3.54 ERA this year. I think both pitchers are underrated right now. The Orioles will miss Derrek Lee in this one, as he is the only Oriole with good career numbers against Marquis. The Nationals haven't scored a run in 21 innings! They'll likely score here, but I don't think they'll score much. Take the under.
05-20-11 Houston Astros v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 5-2 Loss -110 16 h 15 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Aneury Rodriguez is not the type of pitcher that can pitch deep into a game. The Houston Astros have the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Rodriguez has gone no more than five innings in each of his starts this year, which spells trouble for the Astros. The Blue Jays are hitting the ball really well right now. JoJo Reyes doesn't have shutdown stuff, and the Astros should be able to put up a few runs against Reyes. Jose Bautista is a one-man wrecking crew right now, and the rest of the lineup for Toronto isn't bad either. I like the over in this one.
05-20-11 Chicago Cubs v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 5-15 Win 100 2 h 9 m Show
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* Doug Davis is on the hill for the Cubs in this one. Davis had an ERA above 7 last year. He was decent in his one start this year, but that was against the Giants. The Red Sox are starting to hit the ball better, and Davis walks far too many hitters. Jon Lester is nearly unbeatable at home, and I don't think the Cubs are playing good enough baseball to beat him tonight. The Red Sox are 42-13 in Lester's last 55 home starts. The Red Sox are also a ridiculously good 76-28 in their last 104 interleague games. I expect Boston to roll in this one. Boston -1.5 is the play.
05-19-11 Milwaukee Brewers -107 v. San Diego Padres 0-1 Loss -107 20 h 60 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Aaron Harang started the year brilliantly, but he has come back to earth of late. The Brewers have several guys (Hart, Weeks, Fielder, Braun, etc) who have hit Harang well in their career. Chris Narveson has had just one really bad outing this year, and I think he can tame the Padres weak offense. The Brewers have a much better lineup and they are at least even in the starting pitching matchup here. I like the value on the Brewers moneyline here!
05-19-11 Atlanta Braves -106 v. Arizona Diamondbacks 1-2 Loss -106 9 h 21 m Show
*3 Star Moneyline Bookie SMASHER* I was on the Braves last night, and Atlanta certainly should have won that game, but baserunning miscues and errors meant the Braves beat themseleves in extra innings. I'll take Atlanta again in this one. The Diamondbacks start Collmenter, who has been absolutely terrific, but he hasn't faced a strong offense yet. I think the Braves will get to him some. Jair Jurrjens is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball at this point. Jurrjens hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his starts this year. The Braves are 4-0 in his last four starts. I don't think the books are giving him enough respect. I like the Braves in this one!
05-19-11 Chicago Cubs v. Florida Marlins OVER 9 5-1 Loss -100 7 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* The Chicago Cubs have the second best team batting average in baseball. They have struggled to hit in clutch situations, but Chris Volstad doesn't have overpowering stuff. On the other hand, the Cubs defense is dreadful, which means the other team often gets easy runs. Casey Coleman is on the hill for the Cubs, and he has a 7.22 ERA this year. The over is 7-1 in the Cubs last 8 games. The over is 8-3 in Volstad's last 11 home games. I think both teams will get quite a few hits in this one, and I think 11 or 12 runs is fairly likely. Take the over.
05-19-11 Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 11-1 Loss -100 13 h 39 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Brian Runge is the home plate umpire in this one and you won't find many better 'under' umpires than than him. The under is 53-31 in his last 84 games behind the plate, and this year he has called nearly 65% of pitches a strike, which is the highest of any umpire in the majors. Nick Blackburn and Tyson Ross are both pitching extremely well of late, and neither team has a strong lineup at all right now. The under is 9-4 in Blackburn's last 13. The under is 5-1 in Ross' last 6 starts. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. Take the under.
05-19-11 Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8 2-4 Win 100 11 h 52 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Cardinals beat the Houston Astros on Wednesday night, but it was a costly win. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday were both injured in the win. Neither of them are expected to be in the lineup on Wednesday afternoon. Colby Rasmus will miss this one as well. The Cardinals offense will be severely short-handed. Houston's offense is one one of the worst in the majors, and Kyle McClellan has been very good at home. On a get away day in the afternoon I think this will be a pitcher's duel. Take the under.
05-18-11 Atlanta Braves -107 v. Arizona Diamondbacks 4-5 Loss -107 10 h 39 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Atlanta Braves are a better team than the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I believe they'll have a significant pitching advantage in this one as well. Julio Teheran has been dominating the minor leagues the last few years. In fact, he is ranked as one of the top five prospects in all of baseball by many publications. He has gone 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in AAA this year. Joe Saunders isn't very good, and he is a fly ball pitcher in a ballpark that is not kind to fly ball pitchers at all with the roof open. The roof should be open tonight. Saunders has a WHIP of 2.3 this year with the roof open. I think the Braves will take it to Saunders, and Teheran will pitch well. Take Atlanta in this one!
05-18-11 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 5-0 Loss -100 18 h 56 m Show
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cincinnati Reds have won five straight and eight of their last nine overall. The Pittsburgh Pirates were briefly one game above .500, but they have since dropped six straight. In each of those losses they have been beaten two or more runs and failed to cover the +1.5 runline. The Reds have covered the -1.5 runline in seven of their last eight victories overall. Bronson Arroyo has a 3.42 ERA against the Pirates in his career. Charlie Morton has a 5.18 ERA against the Reds in his career. The Reds have the much better lineup as well. Pittsburgh is 4-18 in Morton's last 22 road starts. The Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 games against a right-handed starter. I like the Reds to win comfortably. Take Cincinnati -1.5.
05-18-11 Tampa Bay Rays -103 v. Toronto Blue Jays 6-5 Win 100 6 h 48 m Show
*3 Star Under the Radar Gem* The Tampa Bay Rays have been playing very good baseball of late. Toronto has won six straight as well. Something has to give in this matchup, and I'm going to go with the team who has the better pitcher. Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in the league. In his last outing he threw a complete game shutout. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start this year. Jesse Litsch is a decent starter, but the Blue Jays are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts against Tampa Bay. Toronto crushes left-handed pitching, but they are only average against right-handers. I like Tampa Bay to win this one.
05-17-11 San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 1-6 Loss -100 20 h 57 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Chase Field becomes a hitter's paradise with the roof open. This proved to be very true last night as the baseball was carrying extremely well in a 8-4 San Diego win. The Padres bats are scorching hot right now, and I expect them to score a few runs again. The Diamondbacks are solid offensively and Tim Stauffer will likely have trouble with the conditions here. The over is 12-3-3 in the Padres last 18. The books haven't caught up with the Padres hot bats of late, and the open roof makes this one a solid value on the over.
05-17-11 New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 6-2 Loss -102 17 h 57 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Yankees have dropped six games in a row. The Tampa Bay Rays are in the lead in the AL East. Tampa Bay's offense is much improved with Evan Longoria in the middle of the order. BJ Upton is swinging a hot bat right now as well, which makes a big difference for the Rays. James Shields has been good this year, but his history against New York isn't good at all. In his career he has a 4.91 ERA against the Yankees. Ivan Nova is inconsistent and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Rays score several early against him. I think 8.5 is too low here. Take the over.
05-17-11 San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 8 3-5 Push 0 14 h 37 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Ubaldo Jimenez was one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball last year. He hasn't been the same pitcher so far in 2011. He has just one quality start this year and his ERA is 6.67. Jonathan Sanchez has been struggling mightily with his control this year, and I think that will hurt him quite a bit at Coors Field. I think the books are lining this game more like it was last year. These pitchers are both struggling now, and this is definitely a hitter's ballpark. The wind will be blowing out in this one. The over is 6-0 in Jimenez's last 6 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in Sanchez's last 4 starts in Colorado. Take the over.
05-16-11 Milwaukee Brewers -110 v. Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 Win 100 22 h 11 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are short-handed offensively right now. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are solid in the middle of the order, but the rest of the lineup is quite weak. Jon Garland isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't dominant at his point in his career either. Shaun Marcum has been terrific this year and I think he is one of the most underrated starters in the majors. Marcum has a 1.14 ERA in five road starts this year. He also has an ERA of just 1.42 against the Dodgers in his career. The Brewers have Weeks, Fielder, Braun, McGhee, Hart, and others in a strong lineup. I like Milwaukee to win this one.
05-16-11 San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 8-4 Win 100 21 h 53 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field becomes a massive hitters ballpark when the roof is open, and I would expect it to be open on Monday night. The San Diego Padres were terribly offensively until the last four games, when they have stunningly starting hitting the cover off the ball. San Diego has scored 13, 7, 9, and 8 runs in their last four games. Armando Galarraga has given up six home runs in just 18 innings at Chase Field this year. The ball should be flying out again Monday night. Clayton Richard is a solid pitcher at home, but he struggles on the road because he allows a lot of home runs. The over is 7-1-3 in the Padres last 11. I like the over in this one.
05-16-11 Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox -120 4-0 Loss -120 20 h 14 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Chicago White Sox underperformed badly to start out the season, but this is not a bad team. The Texas Rangers are without Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz right now. Colby Lewis hasn't been very good of late, and he has been terrible against the White Sox in the past. At US Cellular Field Lewis has an outrageous ERA of 11.15. Lewis has a WHIP of 2.22 in his starts at Chicago. Edwin Jackson is good at home and the White Sox are 4-1 in his last five home starts. I think we are still getting a good value on the White Sox because of their terrible start. Take Chicago.
05-15-11 Chicago White Sox v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 4-3 Push 0 3 h 31 m Show
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* Trevor Cahill continues to fly under the radar despite being one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. People talk more about Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, but Cahill is the real ace of this staff. Cahill has allowed more than one run in a game only once this year, and that was on the road. At home his ERA is 1.03. The under is 17-5-1 in Cahill's last 23 home starts. The White Sox offense will likely struggle with this pitcher who keeps the ball down in the zone. Mark Buerhle hasn't fared well against Oakland, but it has usually been to due to a lack of run support. The under is 7-1-1 in his last 9 starts against Oakland. I like the under in this one today.
05-15-11 New York Mets v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 7-4 Win 100 13 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both of these have terrible bullpens, and I don't either of the starting pitchers will make it very deep into this game. Aneury Rodriguez has been pulled after about 80 pitches in both of his first two starts. Chris Capuano was solid in his first start against Houston, but I think the Astros will get to him in this start. Capuano simply doesn't have overpowering stuff at this point. I think both pitchers are capable of giving up big innings here, and the bullpens will contribute to the total. Take the over.
05-15-11 Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 9-3 Win 100 12 h 55 m Show
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* The Tampa Bay Rays were held to four hits and no runs by Brad Bergesen on Saturday. With a healthy Evan Longoria in the middle of the lineup, the Rays don't have a bad offense. I think they'll bounce back against Jake Arrieta in this one. Andy Sonnanstine is pitching for the Rays, and he has never proven to be a very effective starter. The over is 4-0 in Sonnanstine's last 4 starts against Baltimore. Derryl Cousins is a nice 'over' umpire as well. The over is 9-3-2 in his last 14 games behind the dish. Expect a higher scoring affair here. Take the over.
05-15-11 Florida Marlins v. Washington Nationals -110 4-8 Win 100 12 h 18 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Florida Marlins will be looking for the sweep in this one, but they'll have Javier Vazquez on the mound. Vazquez has been terrible this year. Vazquez has a WHIP of 1.87 this year and his ERA is 6.88. Jason Marquis has quietly been having a pretty good season for the Nationals. Marquis generally pitches quite well at home. The Nationals are 5-1 in Marquis' last 6 starts overall, and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The Nationals will be fighting hard to avoid the sweep in this series. I think they'll win this one. Take Washington.
05-15-11 Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 6.5 2-3 Win 100 12 h 55 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* It's Roy Halladay vs. Tim Hudson is this amazing pitching matchup. I will come right out and say I generally hate to play an 'under' on a total set at 6.5. In this case I believe it is a solid value. Roy Halladay has amazing numbers just about everywhere, and he is the best pitcher in the game, but his numbers against Atlanta are amazing. In 16 innings at Turner Field he hasn't allowed a run. In 35 and 2/3 against the Braves overall he has allowed a total of five earned runs. Tim Hudson is a better pitcher during the daytime, and he has been great at home. Shane Victorino and Jason Heyward are both expected to miss this game, which is big for this bet as well. Take the under.
05-14-11 Chicago White Sox +107 v. Oakland A's 2-6 Loss -100 14 h 54 m Show
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Chicago White Sox have come alive over the last few games. This is a team that is far better than their current record shows, and they have a history of going on long winning streaks. I like Oakland's pitching staff, but this Oakland offense is not good at all. Gavin Floyd has handled them very well in the past. Matsui is 1 for 10, Ellis 1 for 12 and Suzuki is 0 for 8, so several of the A's main contributors don't hit Floyd well at all. Tyson Ross has been solid this year, but I think his tendency to walk batters will hurt in this one. I like the White Sox to keep it going with another win. White Sox ML is the play here.
05-14-11 San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 9-7 Loss -100 13 h 60 m Show
*3 Star Runline ROUT* The San Diego Padres aren't a very good team at all this year, and while their offense has hit the ball well the last couple games, this isn't a good offense. Colorado has plenty of guys who can take it deep and Aaron Harang gives up a ton of home runs. Harang benefits in PetCo because it is a pitchers park, but that won't be the case at Coors Field. Chacin has been great at home, and I think the Rockies are a much better team than the Padres. The Rockies are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings with San Diego. Take Colorado -1.5.
05-14-11 Florida Marlins v. Washington Nationals UNDER 8 1-0 Win 100 18 h 18 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Doug Eddings is one of the best 'under' umpires in baseball. Eddings has a very wide strike zone and he has been a solid umpire for several years. Anibal Sanchez has been pitching brilliantly of late, and he has dominated the Nationals in the past couple years. Livan Hernandez has been solid the past couple years because of his ability to keep the ball down in the zone. How about a couple big trends? The under is 27-12-2 in Sanchez's last 41 road starts. The under is 17-5-1 in Hernandez's last 23 home starts. Take the under here.
05-13-11 Chicago White Sox +108 v. Oakland A's 4-3 Win 108 20 h 54 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* It was bound to happen at some point, and it seems the White Sox have finally started to play some better baseball. The White Sox have a solid lineup and some fairly talented pitchers, but things weren't clicking earlier this year. Chicago took two out of three games at Seattle and two out of three at Los Angeles. The White Sox are now up to 10-12 on the road this year. Phillip Humber has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Humber has been outstanding and it has been against some high quality lineups. The Athletics do not have a good lineup. Humber has allowed just 2 homers in 39 innings this year and he has great control of his pitches. Brandon McCarthy is solid as well, but I give the White Sox the edge offensively. Take Chicago.
05-13-11 Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 0-3 Win 100 18 h 31 m Show
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* Jeremy Guthrie has typically been tremendous against Tampa Bay. In his start against the Rays last weekend he was terrible, but I don't think that will happen twice in a row. The under is 6-2 in Guthrie's last 8 starts against Tampa, including 4-0 in his last 4 at Tampa Bay. Jeremy Hellickson is a very good young pitcher, and he typically pitches much better at home. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The under is 37-13-1 in the Rays last 51 home games. I think this one stays low scoring. Take the under.
05-13-11 Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 9.5 5-4 Loss -101 17 h 55 m Show
*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees Total DOMINATION* Both offenses have been struggling of late, so we actually get a bit of a bargain on the over in this case. Clay Buchholz has been terrible against the Yankees in the past. In his career he has started six games against them and his ERA is 6.26. Bartolo Colon has an ERA of just over 4 against the Red Sox. Colon was shelled in his last start, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the start of a slump for him. Both of these teams are stacked offensively. The trend has been strongly toward the over in recent meetings. The over is 18-7-2 in their last 27 meetings. Take the over.
05-12-11 Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 2-3 Win 100 14 h 40 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Matt Cain and Daniel Hudson are both very good pitchers and neither of these offenses is particularly strong. Bill Miller is a great umpire to have behind the plate if you are looking for an under. The under is 57-26-6 in Miller's last 89 games behind home plate! The under is 10-2 in Hudson's last 12 starts as oddsmakers continue to underestimate him as a pitcher. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. The under is 8-2-1 in Arizona's last 11. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4. I really like the under in this one.
05-12-11 Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5 7-4 Loss -120 10 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* B.J. Upton has been hitting the ball well of late, but he will start serving a two-game suspension in this one. Grady Sizemore may well miss his second straight game with a minor knee injury. Justin Masterson has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this year. Masterson has been brilliant in day games in his career. In 40 games pitched during the day he has a 2.99 ERA. James Shields has an ERA of under one in his last three games, and he has also been terrific in day games in his career. The high humidity in Cleveland won't help the ball travel very much on Thursday afternoon. Take the under.
05-11-11 Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 3-4 Win 100 21 h 54 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Johnathan Sanchez has been struggling in a big way of late to find the strike zone, but I think he gets the perfect umpire here to help his cause. Phil Cuzzi has one of the biggest strike zones of any umpire, and he'll likely give Sanchez the corners. Galarraga is another pitcher who struggles with walks and he should benefit from having Cuzzi behind the plate. The under is 15-6-5 in Cuzzi's last 26 games behind the plate. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. Take the under.
05-11-11 Chicago White Sox +101 v. Los Angeles Angels 6-4 Win 101 20 h 4 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Jake Peavy will make his season debut for the White Sox in this one. Peavy has been working extremely hard in rehab for a long time and he is extremely amped up for this one. Peavy has pitched in the playoffs before, but he said that this game means more than any other start has to him. Chatwood is a pretty good young pitcher, but he walks too many batters. The White Sox lineup is starting to put it together of late, and I think they'll make him pay for those walks. I like Peavy to pitch well here. Take the White Sox.
05-11-11 Tampa Bay Rays -119 v. Cleveland Indians 8-2 Win 100 18 h 45 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* David Price is one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. The Cleveland Indians have hit lefties well this year, but Price is much better than your average lefty. Price fared very well against the Indians last year, and the 2010 Indians couldn't hit left-handers well at all. I think Cleveland's offense will slowly start to show its weakness against lefties again this year. The Rays are 7-1 in Price's last 8 road starts. Carrasco has been injured and will start this one for the Indians. I think the Rays have a major pitching advantage. Take Tampa Bay.
05-11-11 Boston Red Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 3-9 Win 100 18 h 45 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox appear to be finally putting it together on offense. This team is simply too good to be struggling at the plate all year long. On the other hand, John Lackey has been bad this year, and he struggled mightily against Toronto last year as well. Litsch isn't an overpowering pitcher and Boston should be able to get to him. Lackey will likely give up some long balls against a Toronto team that has some power hitters. The over is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts against Toronto. Take the over.
05-11-11 San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 13-6 Loss -110 13 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* John Hirschbeck is one of the best 'under' umpires in the business. Hirschbeck consistently has a very wide strike zone, and I think both pitchers will benefit nicely in this one. Stauffer has been solid all year and Wolf is a pitcher who relies on getting the corners. Both teams exploded for 8 and 6 runs last night, but neither of these offenses have been very good at all this year. San Diego has the worst offense in the league. I think on a get away day with some players resting this total is set too high. Take the under.
05-10-11 Detroit Tigers +107 v. Minnesota Twins 10-2 Win 107 18 h 40 m Show
*3 Star Dog of the Day Play* Francisco Lirano threw a no-hitter in his last outing. As strange as it may sound, I still think Liriano's mechanics look a bit off right now. Liriano has been wildly inconsistent this year, and the Twins are just 2-8 in his last 10 starts overall. They are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. The Twins lineup is just not good right now. They are missing Mauer, Young, Thome, and others. Detroit has Victor Martinez back and their lineup is solid. Rick Porcello has pitched pretty well this year. I like the Tigers to keep their recent momentum going against the slumping Twins.
05-10-11 San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 6-8 Loss -109 7 h 8 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres have an absolutely terrible offense. They rank last in all of baseball in runs per game at just 3.09. The team is also last in batting average at .216. The Milwaukee Brewers have struggled hitting lefties this year. Milwaukee averages just 2.4 runs per game against left-handed starters. Clayton Richard is a solid lefty, and Shawn Marcum is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. Both offenses have been struggling and I think these two pitchers will both pitch well tonight. Take the under.
05-10-11 Cincinnati Reds -120 v. Houston Astros 7-3 Win 100 18 h 39 m Show
*3 Star Moneyline CASH* The Cincinati Reds are playing better baseball of late. I still think the Reds have a good shot at winning the NL Central again this year. Homer Bailey made his first start in the majors last week against the Astros, and he looked very good. Bailey had great control and he allowed just one run against the Astros. He bested Brett Myers and the Astros in that game, and I think the same will happen tonight. Myers hasn't had his best stuff this year, and the Reds have a much better lineup than Houston. The Reds are 21-8 in Bailey's last 29 starts. Take the Reds ML.
05-10-11 St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs +108 6-4 Loss -100 8 h 33 m Show
*3 Star Cards/Cubs Winner* Chris Carpenter and Carlos Zambrano square off in Game One of this huge MLB rivalry. Carlos Zambrano has a terrific history against the Cardinals. In fact, the Cubs are 17-5 in Zambrano's last 22 starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals are just 1-7 in Carpenter's last 8 road starts overall. The Cubs are 14-3 in Zambrano's last 17 starts overall. The last five times Zambrano and Carpenter have matched up against one another it has been the Cubs who have come out victorious. I'll take the Cubs in a mild upset.
05-10-11 Seattle Mariners v. Baltimore Orioles -109 6-7 Win 100 7 h 36 m Show
*3 Star Moneyline Value Play* I'll be the first to admit that fading Seattle has cost me quite a bit of cash this year, but I still think this Mariners team is much worse than they have been playing. Pineda is a very good young pitcher, but it seems strange to the Mariners barely an underdog against an improving Orioles team on the road. Jake Arrieta is a very solid young pitcher as well. Arrieta had one bad start this year, but in 6 of his 7 starts he has allowed three earned runs or less. The Orioles have a much better lineup. I'll take the Orioles at home.
05-09-11 New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 1-2 Loss -100 19 h 20 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The first time the Colorado Rockies faced Chris Capuano this year they scored seven runs off him in less than six innings. This time he will be pitching in Coors Field (with the wind blowing out). I think the Rockies will tee off in this game. Chacin has been consistently good for the Rockies of late, and I think he gives them a solid pitching edge in this game. I think this one has the potential to get ugly. Take the Rockies on the runline here.
05-09-11 Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers UNDER 8.5 7-2 Loss -120 19 h 43 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Trevor Cahill is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.Cahill has a great sinker and he keeps the ball down well. The Rangers are missing Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, and Cahill has pitched extremely well against Texas in the past. A couple of weeks ago Cahill blanked the Rangers over seven innings. C.J. Wilson is turning into a legitimate ace, and I don't like this Oakland offense much at all. Expect both starting pitchers to put forth a solid effort here. Take the under.
05-09-11 Philadelphia Phillies v. Florida Marlins OVER 9 6-4 Win 104 18 h 58 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Javier Vazquez just hasn't had his "A Game" at all this year. Vazquez has an ERA of 6.39 for the year. The Phillies may be without Utley, but they still have Rollins, Victorino, Howard, Polanco, Ibanez, and plenty of pop in the lineup. Joe Blanton is pitching for the Phillies. Blanton has a 5.92 ERA this year overall, and he is nursing a minor elbow injury as well. The over is 21-7 in Blanton's last 28 starts. The over is also 7-2-2 in the Marlins last 11 games overall. I expect a high scoring affair. Take the over.
05-09-11 Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 1-2 Loss -100 18 h 37 m Show
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH Special* Josh Beckett has looked like the Josh Beckett of old this year. The Minnesota Twins lineup is extremely short-handed right now. No Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and no Jim Thome. The Red Sox have hit the ball very well in two straight games, and they appear to be trying to come out of their offensive slump. Boston is too good offensively to slump for too much longer. Nick Blackburn simply hasn't been good, and I expect Boston to hit him pretty hard here. The Twins are 1-4 in Blackburn's last 5 starts. The Red Sox are 19-9 in Beckett's last 28 home starts. Take the Red Sox -1.5.
05-08-11 Colorado Rockies -120 v. San Francisco Giants 0-3 Loss -120 14 h 53 m Show
*3 Star Moneyline Cash* The Colorado Rockies have lost two straight very difficult decisions to the Giants in San Francisco. I think this will be the Rockies chance to exact some revenge. De La Rosa has been a good pitcher on the road, and he has great numbers against the Giants. The Rockies are 9-1 in his last 10 starts against San Francisco. Vogelsong simply isn't a very good starting pitcher at this point, and I think Colorado can knock him out of this game fairly early. I like the Rockies avoid getting swept. Take Colorado.
05-08-11 Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 5-6 Loss -120 15 h 0 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I was very surprised to see this number come out at 7.5. Dan Haren is one of baseball's best pitchers, especially in the first half of the year. Fausto Carmona has been a little inconsistent, but he has pitched well against the Angels in the past. Paul Nauert is the umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. How about some impressive trends? The under is 9-1-1 in Haren's last 11 home starts. The under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two in LA. The under is 4-0 in Carmona's last 4 against the Angels. This is my play of the day. Take the under.
05-08-11 Tampa Bay Rays -115 v. Baltimore Orioles 5-3 Win 100 12 h 51 m Show
*3 Star Bring Out the Broom ML* The Tampa Bay Rays have been playing some terrific baseball of late. The Baltimore Orioles are an improving team, but they often go on long streaks and slumps. Tampa Bay has won seven in a row on the road. Wade Davis has had a quality start in every one of his starts this year. The Orioles are 0-7 in Bergesen's last 7 starts overall. The Orioles are also a horrific 33-72 in their last 105 Sunday games. The Rays have the better team all around. I like Tampa Bay on the moneyline.
05-08-11 Washington Nationals v. Florida Marlins UNDER 8 0-8 Push 0 11 h 16 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Livan Hernandez has quietly been a very solid pitcher the last couple years. He has been an 'under' bettors best friend. The under is 34-15-2 in his last 51 starts overall. The under is 15-5-1 in his last 21 road starts. Anibal Sanchez has been in great form of late as well. The under is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 5-1 in Hernandez's last 6 against the Marlins. The under is 5-1 in Sanchez's last 6 against the Nationals. I like the under a lot in this one!
05-08-11 Los Angeles Dodgers -116 v. New York Mets 4-2 Win 100 11 h 2 m Show
*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* Clayton Kershaw is a very good pitcher, and I think he is really starting to mature. R.A. Dickey is erratic and I don't like to back him very often. Knuckleballers tend to run hot and cold and Dickey has been pitching poorly of late. Ethier and Kemp are in the middle of the Dodgers order, and I think the Dodgers have a huge edge in the pitching department here. The Mets bullpen is a problem area as well. The Mets are 0-6 in Dickey's last 6 home starts. Take the Dodgers here.
05-07-11 New York Yankees v. Texas Rangers OVER 10 5-7 Win 100 18 h 21 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* The under is 9-1-3 in the Yankees last 13 games, and I actually think that is why we are getting this line at 10 instead of 11. Derek Holland has a 8.10 ERA in his four games against the Yankees. Bartolo Colon has pitched well so far this year, but the Texas heat and this ballpark should be tough on him. This park is notorius for a wind tunnel that pushes the ball out toward center with a south wind, and that is what is expected on Saturday night. Both pitchers are very capable of giving up the long ball, and I think the over is the way to go here.
05-07-11 Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8.5 3-4 Win 100 26 h 4 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics have one of the weakest offenses in all of baseball. Oakland does have a very good pitching staff though. Brandon McCarthy is largely flying under the radar, but he has been very good this year. Luke Hochevar hasn't been good so far this year, but history tells us he is generally solid at home. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one, and he is a huge under umpire. Miller has a large strike zone and both of these pitchers should use that to their advantage. I expect a low scoring affair here. Take the under.
05-07-11 Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -127 4-0 Loss -127 15 h 32 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals are playing just as well as anyone in the National League right now. Albert Pujols is having a down year at this point, and they are still leading the league in offense. Lance Berkman is absolutely hitting the cover off the ball, and Matt Holliday has been terrific as well. Pujols will heat up and this offense has the chance to be something special. Lohse is a very good pitcher at home, while Yovani Gallardo has been struggling all year. Gallardo has an ERA of 8.44 in his last three games. The Brewers are 0-4 in Gallardo's last 4 starts against the Cardinals. Take St. Louis.
05-07-11 Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 8-2 Loss -103 12 h 32 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeremy Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in the game right now in my opinion. He has good command and high quality stuff. The Rays are a great 'under' team, partially because they play terrific defense. Tampa Bay has committed the least errors in baseball. Jeremy Guthrie is on the mound for Baltimore, and he has been solid all year. Guthrie has a great track record against the Rays. The under is 6-1 in his last 7 starts against the Rays. The under is 5-2 in his last 7 starts. The under is 20-7-1 the last 28 meetings between these two. Take the under.
05-07-11 Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 0-4 Loss -100 11 h 11 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Boston Red Sox continue to struggle, but I do believe their bats will wake up very soon. Boston is hitting left-handers better than righties so far this year, and I think Brian Duensing is the type of guy that Boston can hit. Clay Buchholz doesn't pitch well during the day (4.68 ERA in his career) and he hasn't fared well against the Twins (6.57 ERA). The over is 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 games at home. I think the Red Sox are due for a breakout game, and the Twins offense is playing with some confidence in the last three contests. Paul Schrieber is behind the dish, and he has a very small strike zone. Take the over.
05-06-11 Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -113 3-4 Win 100 21 h 59 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Matt Cain hasn't pitched that well in his last three starts, but I think he'll get it back going here. Cain has had success in the past against the Rockies. The Giants are 25-9 in Cain's last 34 home starts. Ubaldo Jimenez simply hasn't had it thus far this season. Jimenez is walking for too many batters and his ERA is 7.20 so far this year. The Rockies have the better lineup, but Cain is pitching much better than Jimenez right now. At this short price I like the Giants moneyline.
05-06-11 Cleveland Indians -113 v. Los Angeles Angels 1-2 Loss -113 21 h 27 m Show
*3 Star Moneyline CASH* The Cleveland Indians continue to get very little respect from the books. The Indians didn't have far to travel after winning at Oakland on Thursday. On the other hand, Los Angeles played until 3 am Thursday morning, then played again until late Thursday afternoon in Boston. I think this is a bad spot for the Angels who are bound to be a little tired. Justin Masterson has been terrific this year. Masterson has an ERA of 2.25 this season. I consider the Indians and Angels lineups to be pretty even, and I think the Indians have a clear edge in this pitching matchup. The Indians are 8-0 in Masterson's last 8 starts. Take the Indians here.
05-06-11 Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 0-6 Win 150 19 h 54 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* Jaime Garcia is a very solid left-handed pitcher. Garcia has a 0.64 ERA at home so far this year. The Brewers have been terrible against lefties this year. Milwaukee is scoring just 2.73 runs per game against lefties. Randy Wolf has pitched well of late, but I think he'll have trouble against this terrific Cardinals lineup. Lance Berkman and Matt Holiday are both absolutely crushing the ball, and it is only a matter of time until Pujols gets it going again. I like the Cardinals -1.5 here.
05-06-11 Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals +109 3-2 Loss -100 20 h 34 m Show
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Oakland Athletics lost a tough extra innings game to the Cleveland Indians on Thursday afternoon. Oakland has a very good starting pitching staff, but their defense isn't very good and the offense isn't very powerful at all. Kansas City hasn't lost a series at home all year, and I think the books are still undervaluing this Royals. Gio Gonzalez is a very good pitcher, but he hasn't fared well at all pitching in Kansas City. Gonzalez has an ERA of 7.62 in his three starts in Kansas City. O'Sullivan hasn't given up more than two earned runs in three straight starts. The Royals average 6.41 runs per game against a lefty. I'll take the Royals as underdogs here.
05-06-11 New York Yankees +103 v. Texas Rangers 4-1 Win 103 19 h 18 m Show
*3 Star MLB Value Bet* The New York Yankees are rarely underdogs, but they have lost three straight and the books have gotten a little lower on them. I know the Rangers are a very good home team, but the Rangers are injury depleted right now. Josh Hamilton is out and Nelson Cruz will miss this one as well. Matt Harrison has an ERA of 11.12 in his last three starts. Harrison gives up the home run far too often, and the Yankees have plenty of guys who can take him deep. Nova has pitched decent for the Yankees of late. The Yankees are 8-3 in Nova's last 11 starts. At plus money against a mediocre starting pitcher I'll take the Yankees ML.
05-06-11 Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 6-2 Push 0 2 h 1 m Show
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* James Shields has been pitching as well as anyone in baseball over the last few games. Britton is a tremendous young lefty for the Orioles. Both teams have proven to be nice 'under' teams thus far this year. The under is 38-15-1 in the Rays last 54. The under is 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts against the Orioles. The under is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings between these two. Mark Carlson is an under umpire behind the dish as well. Take the under here.
05-05-11 Texas Rangers -110 v. Seattle Mariners 1-3 Loss -110 6 h 31 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I continue to believe that the Seattle Mariners are much worse than their record shows. The Mariners are 14-17, but I think they could end up the season with the worst record in the American League. This Mariners lineup is not a good one at all. The Mariners are 0-7 in Vargas' last 7 home starts and 2-12 in his last 14 starts overall. The Rangers start Colby Lewis, who isn't a great pitcher, but he actually pitches better on the road. Getting almost even money on a team with a much better lineup seems like a good value. Take the Rangers ML.
05-05-11 Milwaukee Brewers v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 1-2 Win 100 3 h 43 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Brandon Beachy is a very good young pitcher for the Braves, and he has pitched well in three straight games. The Brewers offense has been scuffling a bit of late. Marcum is pitching for the Brewers, and I think he is one of the most underrates pitchers in baseball today. Marcum has allowed 0 earned runs in three of his last four starts. Marcum allowed just one run earlier this year against the Braves. I think this one has the makings of a 3-2 type game. Take the under.
05-05-11 Washington Nationals v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 3-7 Win 104 18 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH Special* Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the majors right now. Halladay has amazing control of the strike zone. Halladay is 9-1 in his career against the Nationals. On the other side, John Lannan will be starting for the Nationals. How about this for an amazing statistic? The Nationals are 0-11 in Lannan's last 11 starts against the Phillies. The Phillies hit .271 as a team against lefties, and they score about five runs per game. Getting plus money on the runline seems like a terrific value in this mismatch special. Take the Phillies -1.5.
05-05-11 Florida Marlins -122 v. St. Louis Cardinals 3-6 Loss -122 12 h 4 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Josh Johnson has been the best pitcher in the majors thus far this year. In his last four starts he has allowed one earned run! Jake Westbrook has been erratic this year, and this Marlins continues to hit the ball pretty well. I like the Cardinals team pretty well, but I think the pitching matchup goes so strongly to the Marlins here that this short price on the moneyline is well worth it. I expect Johnson to pitch another very good game. Take the Marlins moneyline here.
05-05-11 Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 11-0 Loss -100 12 h 41 m Show
*3 Star Runline ROUT* The Los Angeles Angels and the Boston Red Sox played late into the night last night, now they must turnaround and play less than 12 hours later in this afternoon series finale. John Lackey has pitched well at home of late, and he has pitched extremely well in matchups against his former team (the Angels). Last time against the Angels Lackey pitched a shutout in Los Angeles. Joel Piniero is pitching for the Angels, and he has been hit hard by most of the Red Sox regulars. The Angels are just 3-7 in Piniero's last 10 road starts. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts against the Angels. I think Boston finishes off this series with a big win. Take Boston -1.5.
05-05-11 New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9 3-6 Push 0 12 h 28 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* A.J. Burnett has an ERA of over 9 in his starts at Comerica. The Tigers offense got a much needed boost when Victor Martinez returned to the lineup on Wednesday night. The Yankees were shutout by Scherzer on Wednesday, but they should have much better luck against Rick Porcello. The Yankees have hit Porcello hard in the past. The over is 6-2-1 in Burnett's last 9 starts. The over is 6-1 in Porcello's last 7 home starts. The over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings. Tschida is behind the dish here, and he is a solid over umpire. I like the over in this Thursday afternoon game.
05-05-11 Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8.5 4-10 Loss -111 12 h 58 m Show
*3 Star Early Bird Special* Homer Bailey will make his first start of the season on Thursday afternoon. In his three rehab starts he was tremendous. Bailey had an ERA of 0.54 in his three starts in AAA. Brett Myers has historically pithched well on the road and he has pitched well against the Reds as well. In his last two starts against the Reds he has allowed a total of two runs. Tom Hallion is behind the dish here and I consider him a bit of an under umpire. The cool temperatures in Cincinnati should keep the ball from flying out of GABP too often. I like the under.
05-04-11 Cleveland Indians v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 1-3 Win 100 21 h 33 m Show
*3 Star Late Night Totals Winner* Josh Tomlin has been very good so far this year, and the Oakland offense is not very impressive. Trevor Cahill has been absolutely dominant at home over the last couple years. The under is 16-5-1 in his last 22 home starts. While the Indians do have the best record in baseball, I don't think this Cleveland offense is all that terrific either. Ron Kulpa is behind the dish here and he is a solid under umpire. I think both pitchers will pitch well here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2-1 type of game. Take the under.
05-04-11 Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 6-4 Win 104 20 h 49 m Show
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* The Colorado Rockies are a very good offensive team and Carlos Gonzalez is getting it going now. The Diamondbacks are solid offensively as well. Chase Field is expected to be open tonight and the temperature will be around 94 degrees. The humidity level is expected to be extremely low, which should mean the ball will be jumping off the bats tonight. Enright is pitching for the DBacks and the over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 home starts. I expect a high scoring affair. Take the over.
05-04-11 Florida Marlins v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 8-7 Loss -100 18 h 20 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Cardinals are 50-17 in Chris Carpenter's last 67 starts at home. Javier Vazquez has just one quality start so far this year. Remember when everyone was saying the Cardinals couldn't hit? St. Louis now has the highest team batting average, .293, in all of baseball. They have been able to do that without Pujols contributing much at all. The Cardinals have a huge advantage here in the pitching matchup, and they also have the better lineup. No pitcher wants to see Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman in the middle of the opponent's order. Take the Cardinals -1.5.
05-04-11 Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 Top 3-2 Loss -105 18 h 27 m Show
*5 Star Top Play Total* Kyle Davies is one of my favorite pitchers to fade or play an 'over' with, and Jake Arrieta hasn't been good on the road either. Arrieta has some hip pain that could give him some trouble during this game. The weather conditions should help a lot in this one. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at about 20 mph during this game. Davies has given up five runs in three of his six starts, and he gave up eight earned runs in his last outing. The Orioles bats are slowly coming to life of late. The over is 4-1 in Arrieta's last 5 starts. The over is 4-1 in Davies' last 5 home starts. The over is 31-13 in the last 44 meetings in Kansas City between these two. I'm making this my first five star top play of the MLB season. Take the over in a big way.
05-04-11 New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 9 0-4 Win 100 18 h 31 m Show
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* I don't normally like to bet the 'under' with the Yankees, but I think this is a good spot. Freddy Garcia has been surprisingly good this year, and the Tigers offense isn't that great. Max Scherzer is terrific at Comerica in his career. Scherzer has an ERA of 2.7 in Detroit. Garcia also has a solid 3.7 ERA in his starts at Detroit. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams at Detroit. I think the line gives us a solid value on the under.
05-04-11 Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 2-3 Loss -120 11 h 22 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Travis Wood has an ERA of 6.00 at home. Rodriguez will be making the first start of his career for Houston in this game. Both teams have been hitting the ball very well of late. The wind is expected to be pushing out at about 10 to 15 mph in this game. The over is 3-0-1 in the Reds last 4 home games. The over is 9-4 in the Astros last 13 road games. The pitching matchup points to an over and I think this number is a solid value on the over. Expect both starting pitchers to get knocked out fairly early in this one. Take the over.
05-03-11 Texas Rangers -127 v. Seattle Mariners 3-4 Loss -127 20 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Texas Rangers have been absolutely tremendous this year against left-handed pitchers. As a team they are hitting .292 against lefties, and they are averaging 6.51 runs per game. Erik Bedard is a lefty who has been struggling most of the year. The Rangers knocked him out of the game pretty early in their first meeting against him this year, and I expect that again. Ogando is a legitimate solid young pitcher with good stuff. The Mariners are hitting .211 against right-handed pitchers this year. Texas has a much better lineup than Seattle, and they also have the pitching advantage here. Take the Rangers.
05-03-11 Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 5-6 Win 100 9 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I'm no fan of taking an 'over' at PetCo Park in San Diego, but this number is definitely set too low based on the trends and data. Mat Latos was terrific last year, but he has been bad this year. Latos has an ERA of 4.98 this year, and he has allowed at least three runs in every outing this year. Jeff Karstens is pitching for the Pirates, and the over is 5-1 in his last 6 starts. Karstens doesn't have overpowering stuff, and I think the Padres will be able to score some runs off him. With a number set this low, a 3-3 game will result in a win. I like the value on the over.
05-03-11 Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 3-4 Loss -100 20 h 34 m Show
*3 Star MLB Terrific Total* I've written about it before, and I've not changed my mind about Chase Field when the roof is open. Chase Field with the roof open is a hitters paradise, especially when the weather is hot and dry like it is expected to be today. A temperature of around 90 with almost no humidity should mean the ball will be coming off the bat extremely quickly tonight. Joe Saunders has struggled in the past with the roof open, and De La Rosa gives up too many fly balls to be good in these conditions. Take the over in this one.
05-03-11 Florida Marlins v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8 5-7 Loss -102 18 h 9 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATIION* The Florida Marlins have Anibal Sanchez on the hill in this one. Sanchez has been brilliant of late, and historically he has been very good on the road. The under is 27-11-2 in Sanchez's last 40 starts on the road. Kyle McClellan has been solid this year for the Cardinals, and I think he'll fare well in this one. Jerry Layne is the home plate umpire, and the under is 17-8-1 in his last 26 games behind the plate. I think this total is set a little too high. I like the value on the under in this one.
05-03-11 San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets -1.5 7-6 Loss -100 5 h 24 m Show
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The San Francisco Giants are pretty short-handed offensively right now. Without Sandoval in the middle of the lineup they lose quite a bit of their pop. The New York Mets are playing much better baseball right now, and they certainly have a better lineup than the Giants at this point. Beltran, Wright, Bay, and Reyes give them four very solid hitters. R.A. Dickey has historically been very good at home, and I don't see the Giants scoring many runs here. Ryan Vogelsong is pitching for the Giants, and I don't he has the stuff to shut down the Mets. Take the Mets -1.5.
05-03-11 Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 7 3-7 Loss -100 17 h 7 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* John Hirschbeck is the umpire in this game, and he is one of the best 'under' umpires in the business. Hirschbeck has a wide strike zone, and that should be perfect for both Dan Haren and Jon Lester. Dan Haren has allowed a total of six earned runs in his seven starts this year. Jon Lester allowed five earned runs in his first start of the year, but he has allowed just six earned runs in his last five starts overall. I think both starting pitchers will pitch deep into the game here. Take the under.
05-02-11 Baltimore Orioles +101 v. Chicago White Sox 2-6 Loss -100 6 h 50 m Show
*3 Star MLB Sides Special* The Baltimore Orioles have taken the first three games in this four-game series from the White Sox. Chicago is struggling mightily right now, and the Orioles are a much better team this year than they were in 2010. Jeremy Guthrie is on the mound for the Orioles here, and he is better on the road than he is at home. Guthrie has had four quality starts this year and just one poor outing. Buerhle is pitching for the Sox, and he has two quality starts and four bad ones. Markakis, Lee, Guerrero, and Wieters all hit .350 or higher against Buerhle in their career. The Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 against the White Sox when Buerhle is on the hill. I'll take the Orioles to finish off the sweep here.
05-01-11 San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7.5 7-0 Win 100 14 h 5 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TAKEDOWN* The San Diego Padres may have the worst offense in all of baseball. They managed to score five runs last night, but I don't think they'll be able to repeat that against a solid sinker-ball pitcher in Jon Garland. On the other side, Dustin Mosely has been terrific for the Padres. The Dodgers are short-handed without Furcal and Blake right now. The under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings between these two. I expect both starters to pitch well in this one. Take under 7.5 here.
05-01-11 Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's UNDER 7.5 2-7 Loss -120 15 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one and he is probably the single biggest 'under' umpire in all of baseball. Eddings has a big strike zone, and historically he has been an under bettors dream. The under is 12-4-2 in Eddings last 18 games. The under is also 38-16-5 in his last 59 Sunday games. Gio Gonzalez is a very good lefty who can work the corners, and I think the Rangers will have a difficult time against him. Matt Harrison has been much improved this year, and this Oakland offense is very bad. Take the under.
05-01-11 Baltimore Orioles +110 v. Chicago White Sox 6-4 Win 110 12 h 1 m Show
*3 Star Sunday Sweep* The Baltimore Orioles are an improving team. The offense has been holding them back most of the year, but they have lots of talent offensively. The offense has finally started to get it going the last few days, and I think they are a better team than the White Sox right now. Britton is a terrific young pitcher, and the White Sox are struggling in a big way at the plate. The White Sox are averaging just 3.2 runs per game against a left-hander. Chicago is 3-14 in their last 17 games. The Orioles are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Take Baltimore.
05-01-11 Milwaukee Brewers v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 0-5 Loss -100 13 h 44 m Show
*3 Star Over Play of the Day* Chris Narveson hasn't looked good in his last couple outings, and the Houston Astros are scoring about 5 runs per game on lefties this year. Bud Norris is solid at home, but this Brewers lineup is very good now with Weeks, Braun, Fielder, McGhee, and Hart back and healthy. The wind is projected to be blowing out at about 15 mph. The home plate umpire is Adrian Johnson who tends to have a small strike zone. This one sets up nicely for an 'over' play. Take over 8.5 in this matchup.
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