*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet early Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. The wind is expected to be gusting out to center field at 20 mph or so here. Day games at Yankee Stadium are very beneficial to hitters to start with, and this should be great conditions for runs. C.C. Sabathia isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and several Rays hitter have hit him very well in the past. Erik Bedard isn't a good pitcher at all at this point in his career, and this Yankees lineup is very good. New York punishes left-handed pitching. 

The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with home winning record. The over is 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 home starts vs. the Rays. A 19-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Detroit Tigers cashed in big for me as a significant underdog last night. This Detroit Tigers team is really starting to click in recent days. The Tigers may be the best team in the majors, and they still aren't getting enough respect from the oddsmakers. The Royals are a mediocre team. I like Danny Duffy for the Royals, but the Tigers hit left-handed pitching very well. Detroit is 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter. In addition, Smyly starts for the Tigers and Kansas City has been miserable against lefties this year (averaging just over 3 runs per game against them). 

Detroit is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. They are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Royals. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 as a dog. A 24-1 angle. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value Play* The Atlanta Braves have found a true ace in Julio Teheran. Teheran has been solid against everyone this year. He has elite stuff and he has found his control of all pitches much better in 2014. Ryan Vogelsong is a complete mess for the Giants. He managed to twirl a gem last game against Cleveland, but I don't expect the same here against a good Braves lineup. Vogelsong has a 5.40 ERA so far this year, and in two starts on the road he has an ERA of 15.19. The Giants offense is too inconsistent, and I expect the Braves to score plenty against Vogelsong. Take Atlanta -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles are a better team than the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has been more competitive than I expected early in the year, but I still expect them to end up at or very near the bottom of the AL Central. Baltimore is a team that is capable of making some noise and possibly even getting to the postseason. Minnesota's biggest weakness is their pitching staff. Here the Twins will start Kevin Correia, who has been dreadfully bad this year. Correia comes in with a 7.33 ERA, and his ERA is over 9 at home. Chen starts for the Orioles, and his history against Minnesota is great. He has a 2.25 ERA in his career against the Twins. Baltimore clearly has the better lineup as well.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 as favorites. They are 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The Twins are 0-5 in Correia's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in Correia's last 5 starts following a Twins loss. They are 0-6 in his last 6 during game 2 of the series. They are 0-4 in his last 4 vs. the AL East. A 33-0 angle. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* This is all about price. The Detroit Tigers are arguably the best team in the American League (and maybe even baseball), and they are +140 or so against a Royals team that is merely mediocre. James Shields is clearly a better pitcher than Rick Porcello, and it won't surprise me a lot if the Tigers lose this game, but at this price I simply can't pass it up. The much better offense at a huge discounted price. Take Detroit in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Ubaldo Jimenez has had some real trouble early in the year for his new team in Baltimore. Jimenez is a streaky pitcher, and until he turns it around I won't trust him at all. Ricky Nolasco is considered an ace for the Twins, which tells you how bad this pitching staff is. Nolasco has an ugly 6.67 ERA this year. Jimenez has an ERA of 6.59. Two pitchers that can't be trusted against two good lineups. The Twins offense is much better than expected, and the Orioles now have Machado back which helps a lot.

The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 road games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. right-handed pitching. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0-1 in the Twins last 5 home games set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 during game one of a series. A 41-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dan Straily and Clay Buchholz are both off to a shaky start to the season in 2014. Straily has been bad against good offenses, and now that Boston has gotten healthy again I consider them a good offense. Buchholz has been bad against everyone so far this year. Buchholz also has a miserable 7.90 ERA in six career starts against Oakland. The A's lineup is better than most believe. This game has the potential to see some very big innings.

The over is 5-0 in the A's last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in Straily's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 9 to 10.5. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 9 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 3-0-1 in Boston's last 4 during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 on 5 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 when the Red Sox opponent gives up 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the Red Sox score 5 runs or more in their last game. A 52-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Yordano Ventura is a name you'll want to get to know. This guy has electric stuff and is capable of shutting down even the best of lineups. Ventura throws better than 100 mph at times, and he has very good change of pace breaking stuff. Toronto isn't very good against right-handed pitchers, and they are facing an elite one today. Drew Hutchison hasn't been good on the road in his career. Hutchison has a 4.62 ERA away from home. Kansas City has been much better at home in the last couple years. The Royals are 13-3 in their last 16 home games as a favorite. Good spot to back the home team. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* The Texas Rangers look to avoid the sweep Wednesday night at home against the Oakland Athletics. Jesse Chavez is off to a nice start this year, but I'm not convinced Chavez will be a quality starting pitcher in the long run. Chavez has a 7.16 ERA in 7 appearances against the Rangers in his career. Robbie Ross is great at home. Ross has a career ERA of just 2.68 at the Ballpark in Arlington. Oakland is hitting just .237 as a team off left-handed pitching this year. With Choo and Beltre both back in the lineup, this Rangers lineup is very good. Nice price on the home team here. Take Texas. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals aren't proving it so far this series, but I am convinced that they are a better team than the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee is without Ryan Braun, Jean Segura, and possibly Aramis Ramirez again in this one. This Milwaukee lineup is a total mess. Milwaukee has won the first two games in this series in extra innings. Shelby Miller has been dominant at home in his career (1.68 ERA), and Miller has shut down the Brewers (2.03 ERA) in his previous starts against them. I expect him to be the stopper here. The Cardinals don't want to lose any more ground, and sweeping a team as good as St. Louis is tough to do when healthy. The Brewers aren't even close to healthy. A lot of value on the Cardinals here.

St. Louis is 6-0 in Miller's last 6 starts vs. the Brewers. They are 7-1 in Miller's last 8 starts as a favorite. A 13-1 angle here. Take the Cardinals big! 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Colorado Rockies took the first game of this series last night, and I like their chances of taking game two as well. Tyler Chatwood has quietly turned into a decent pitcher for the Rockies. Chatwood has a ground ball rate of 58%, which is a very good thing at Chase Field with the roof open as it will be on Tuesday night. Chatwood has pitched well in limited action against the Diamondbacks in his career. Mike Bolsinger is pitching for the Diamondbacks, and I don't think his style fits this park well. He gave up a lot of home runs in Triple A, and I don't see him being the answer for Arizona. The Rockies have the better lineup as well.

Colorado is 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their last game. The Rockies are 4-0 in Chatwood's last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in the previous game. Arizona is 0-9 in their last 9 as a home underdog. They are 0-5 in their last 5 during game two of the series. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. A 27-0 angle. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The St. Louis Cardinals lost in game one of this important series against the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers last night, but I like their chances of bouncing back on Tuesday. Lance Lynn has struggled on the road, but he has been great at home in his career. He also has a stellar 2.17 ERA in almost 50 innings of work against Milwaukee in his career. Kyle Lohse isn't nearly as good on the road as he is at home. The Brewers lineup will be without Ryan Braun and Jean Segura here it appears. They also may be without Aramis Ramirez who was dinged up a bit yesterday. Milwaukee's offense is really hurting right now. Look for the Cardinals to win comfortably. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jose Fernandez is absolutely amazing. His numbers at home in his short career are nothing short of extraordinary. Fernandez has a 1.07 ERA in 18 career starts at home! An ERA of 1.07 in 18 starts is just out of this world good. Fernandez shut down the Braves on the road last time out, and I see no reason to expect the Braves to have success against him here. Fernandez has a 1.29 ERA in 21 career innings against Atlanta. The Marlins are actually slightly better against left-handed pitching, and they'll face lefty Alex Wood here. Miami at home with Fernandez is tough to overlook when not laying big money.

Miami is 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs. a lefty. They are 8-0 in Fernandez's last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. They are 4-0 in his last 4 Tuesday starts. The Braves are 0-4 in Wood's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 24-0 angle. Take Miami. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Milwaukee Brewers will be without both Ryan Braun and Jean Segura today. Braun is clearly the team's best hitter, and Segura has turned into a catalyst for this offense. Without those two in the lineup, this offense isn't even close to the same. Michael Wacha is a dominating young pitcher and I like his matchup without those two guys around for the Brewers. Yovani Gallardo has been very good this year, but his career numbers against the Cardinals are miserable. In 18 starts against the Cardinals, Gallardo has a 6.49 ERA. The Brewers are a miserable 3-15 in his last 18 starts against St. Louis. Getting this kind of price on the run line is too much for me to pass up. Take the Cardinals -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Texas Rangers get Matt Harrison back for this game. Harrison was the team's Opening Day starter in 2013, but he has had a myriad of injuries and surgeries in the past year. Harrison is finally back, and he picked a great team to come back against. Seattle is a team Harrison has totally dominated throughout his career. Harrison has an amazing 0.99 ERA in his career at Safeco Field, and that is in a rather large sample size. The Mariners offense is slightly better this year, but it still isn't good. Maurer is no more than mediocre on the mound for Seattle, and Texas has an even stronger lineup with Beltre healthy again. Getting the Rangers at plus money here is a very nice value. 

Texas is 9-1 in Harrison's last 10 starts vs. the Mariners. Seattle is 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games. They are 1-9 in Maurer's last 10 starts overall. A 22-2 angle. Take Texas. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Indians meet on Sunday afternoon for the series finale here. This is clearly a pitcher's park, but in an afternoon game like this one it is certainly easier to hit a home run and get some more scoring than it is in late night games in the Bay Area. The Giants are averaging 4.29 runs per game this year, and this offense is definitely better than it was a year ago. Danny Salazar isn't hitting his spots, and the Giants have some professional hitters who should be able to make him pay for those mistakes. Ryan Vogelsong pitches for the Giants and he has a 7.71 ERA this season. The Indians offense should get to him early. 

The over is 5-0 in Salazar's last 5 as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 Sunday games. The over is 5-0 in Vogelsong's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox start Jon Lester in this one, and Lester has pitched very well in his career against Toronto. Importantly, Lester has consistently thrown quality starts against this Toronto team. No one in the Blue Jays lineup has hit him well in the past. R.A. Dickey has an ERA well over 5 in his career against Boston. The Red Sox patience at the plate helps them a lot against this knuckleballer. Toronto started the season hot, but their team just isn't as good as the Red Sox. Boston has had lots of success against Toronto in the past. 

Boston is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. Toronto is 0-4 in their last 4 against the AL East. They are 0-4 in their last 4 on turf. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. They are 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts following a quality start. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of the series. They are 0-4 in his last 4 after the team scores 5 runs or more. They are 0-5 in his last 5 Sunday starts. A 41-0 angle. Take Boston. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play 100% CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks have won three games in a row. I don't expect them to make it four. Arizona isn't a good team. Philadelphia isn't particularly good this year either, but the Phillies have one of the best starting pitchers in baseball starting for them in this one. Cliff Lee is just a tremendous pitcher who limits walks and comes up with big outs consistently when runners are on base. I love the way he pitches deep into the game, which will help us stay away from the Phillies bullpen. Bronson Arroyo starts for Arizona, and he is a bad fit at Chase Field. The roof will be open here, and the ball flies extremely well with the roof open. Arroyo has been among the league leaders in home runs allowed the past few years, and he has been getting torched so far this year. He allowed 9 runs in his first home start this year. 

Arizona is 0-6 in their last 6 Saturday games. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They are 0-8 in their last 8 as a home underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 during game two of a series. The DBacks are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Phillies big here! 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The Cincinnati Reds are a much better team than they showed early on this year. They narrowly lost last night's game even though they outhit the Braves. Mike Leake has been spectacular against the Braves in the past. He has an ERA of just above 2 in his career against Atlanta. David Hale has been thrown into the Braves rotation because of Atlanta's injury problems and he will likely have a hard time against a pretty solid Reds lineup. Leake is an underrated pitcher at this stage of his career, and I see him as a guy that can be backed as an underdog. Nice price on the Reds here. Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Diego Padres have a terrific ace in Andrew Cashner. Cashner is a guy who is going to be much better known by the average fan by the end of this year. Cashner has elite stuff, and he has shown he can shut down any lineup. He threw a complete game shutout against Detroit earlier this year. The Nationals offense is having some issues of late, and Bryce Harper is questionable for this one after leaving last night's game with an injury. Tanner Roark has pitched well in his first few starts in the majors, but he is due for some regression and he doesn't have the same quality of stuff as Cashner. At even money, I'll take the team with the much better starting pitcher. Take San Diego. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers aren't getting much respect from the oddsmakers with this line. Texas has played a weak schedule so far, but the Seattle Mariners aren't a good team. Robbie Ross has been super so far this year, and his track record against the Mariners is excellent. Ross has a stellar 1.29 ERA in 21 innings against the Mariners. This Mariners offense has been slumping of late as well. Roenis Elias has been very good so far this year, but this guy is definitely due for regression. Elias was a mediocre pitcher in AA and has jumped to the majors and been very good. The Rangers saw him recently, and since Elias relies heavily on deception I expect Texas to hit him much better this time around.

Texas is 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. Seattle is 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 0-5 in their last 5 following a win. They are 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. A 24-0 angle. Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open. The weather conditions tomorrow night should be perfect for hitters. The temperature will be in the 80's with wind blowing out at about 15 mph. You won't find better conditions than that. Hernandez is regressing the last couple years, and at this point I consider him one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Collmenter gives up far too many homers, and that isn't a good thing for his chances when the roof is open here. Both of these teams have offenses that are very capable of scoring several runs in this situation. Additionally, both bullpens are pretty weak so there will be chances late in the game too.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Phillies last 5 during game one of the series. The over is 4-0 in Collmenter's last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The New York Yankees offense is coming alive of late. Jacoby Ellsbury is a great fit for this team, and the Yankees have been at their best against left-handed pitching so far this season. With the lineup they have, I expect that to continue. This team is fully capable of hitting left-handers extremely well. C.J. Wilson has been pretty good in the past at Yankee Stadium, but he's lost some zip on his fastball and he isn't the same pitcher he was a couple years ago. Hiroki Kuroda has been great in his career at home, and the Angels haven't hit him well in the past. New York's lineup isn't getting the kind of respect they deserve from the oddsmakers just yet. 

The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. They are 6-0 in their last six during game one of the series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 home games. They are 6-1 in Kuroda's last 7 starts as a home favorite. A 21-1 angle. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Kyle Kendrick starts for the Phillies here, and I've never been a fan of his. Kendrick can get blown up at any time, and he has been beaten up badly many times by this Dodgers team. He has allowed 21 earned runs in 22 and 2/3 innings pitched against the Dodgers. With Carl Crawford back and healthy, this Dodgers lineup is terrific. Dan Haren isn't a bad pitcher, but he's no longer a shutdown type of pitcher. The Phillies offense has several guys who have hit him well in the past. Mike DiMuro is a solid umpire to have behind the dish when playing an over. This number is set too low and we are getting plus money. Good value here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox will play the final game of a four game series on Thursday afternoon. Jose Quintana will take the mound for Chicago, and he has been great against Detroit in his career thus far. Quintana has a 2.70 ERA in his four career starts against this very good Tigers lineup. Max Scherzer will start for the Tigers, and he was the best pitcher in the AL last year. Scherzer is a strikeout pitcher, and the White Sox have a lot of free swingers. Dan Iassogna is behind the plate here, and I rate him as a decent under umpire which helps. In addition, this is getaway day for these teams and there may be some stars missing from the lineups.

The under is 4-0 in Quintana's last 4 during game four of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in Scherzer's last 6 starts as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite of -151 to -200. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals meet in a very early game on Thursday afternoon. This one gets underway just after noon eastern time. This is a classic getaway day spot for both teams. Cleveland leaves for San Francisco after this game and the Royals leave for Baltimore. Cool weather and a breeze blowing in from center field should help as well. Bruce Chen was great against the Indians last year, and he has an ERA of 2.7 at Cleveland in his career. Kluber has been shaky early in the year, but he is up and coming pitcher with a high upside. Expect several key players to be missing from the lineups here.

The under is 5-0-1 in the Royals last 6 games as a +110 to +150 road underdog. The under is 5-0 in the Indians last 5 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 5-0 in home plate umpire Greg Gibson's last 5 games behind the plate. The under is 4-1 in Chen's last 5 starts in Cleveland. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago White Sox lead the majors in runs scored this year. Chicago's offense has received a major boost from newcomers like Abreu and Simien. I'm not sure they can keep up this kind of production, but I do expect the White Sox to hit left-handers well this year with their right-hander heavy offense. Detroit's Drew Smyly has had trouble getting the White Sox out in the past, and this White Sox offense is clearly better than last year's version. Andre Rienzo has been no better than mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to expect him to be a good big leaguer. The Tigers offense will score a lot of runs this year. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Washington Nationals have dropped the first two games of this series. Washington is a team I'm very high on, and in the end I do believe this Nationals team is going to have a bunch of wins this year. They are a bit dinged up right now, but they have their best pitcher going in this one. Strasburg gets the most attention, but Gio Gonzalez has consistently been their best starter the last two seasons. Gonzalez has an ERA under 2 in his career against the Angels. Jered Weaver has been an ace for a long time, but I'm worried about his huge drop in velocity. Weaver isn't a bad pitcher now, but he isn't in the same category as Gonzalez at this point. The Nationals bullpen is much better than the Angels.

Washington is 8-1 in Gonzalez's last 9 starts on Wednesday. They are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games with home plate umpire Paul Emmel behind the dish. A 17-2 angle here. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Aaron Harang has been brilliant so far this year for the Braves. Harang is a big reason why the Braves are at the top of the division this year. He was signed late after the team lost several pitchers to injuries. He has performed far better than any Braves fan could have ever hoped. Harang pitched a no-hitter through seven innings last time out. He faces a weak Miami lineup in this one. Nate Eovaldi has an ERA just above 2 in his career against Atlanta. Eovaldi is a young starter who I believe will turn into a very good pitcher in the next couple years. It's getaway day here and with the early start I expect some top hitters to get the day off here. 

The under is 7-0-1 in Eovaldi's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in Atlanta's last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Eovaldi's last 4 starts in Atlanta. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 starts against Atlanta overall. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants have been slumping on offense of late. Franklin Morales hasn't proven himself as a starter in the majors, and I'll look to fade him when given the chance this year. The Giants offense should have more scoring opportunities in this one against Morales. Madison Bumgarner is on the mound for the Giants, and he has been great against Colorado in his career. The Giants are even 5-2 in his last 7 starts at Coors Field. Michael Cuddyer is one of the Rockies most consistent hitters, and he went on the DL yesterday. The Giants have a significant edge in the bullpen and in the starting pitching in this matchup.

The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 road starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a team loss in the previous game. The Rockies are 0-4 in Morales' last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. A 17-0 angle. Take the Giants. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Atlanta Braves have a tough task ahead of them here as they go up against Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is one of my favorite pitchers in the league because of his amazing stuff, and it's hard to go against him. Still, it must be pointed out that he has a career ERA of 4.00 on the road. Atlanta is a very good team, and Fernandez is backed by a Marlins team that will lose a lot of games. Also, don't discount how good of a pitcher Alex Wood is. The Braves have found a star pitcher in Wood. He has been on point all season this year. Atlanta has the much better bullpen and the much better lineup. 

The Marlins are 0-8 on the road this year. Miami is 1-8 in Fernandez's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 16-1 angle. Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The Cleveland Indians will start Danny Salazar in this one. Salazar looked great late last year, but he has hit a major speed bump so far this year. Salazar's control has been shaky and opposing teams are making him pay. Kansas City's lineup is better than they have shown thus far this year, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here. James Shields is a consistently good pitcher. He has a solid career against the Indians. His last three starts against Cleveland have been very good. The Royals have won 4 of his last 5 starts against Cleveland. Big pitching edge for the Royals here. Kansas City should be favored here. Take the Royals. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Oakland is a very good team on their home field. The Athletics win with small ball, and that has proven to be extremely effective at home for this team. Texas is a good team with an elite pitcher going in Yu Darvish here, but Darvish hasn't pitched well against Oakland in his career. In two starts at Oakland, he has an ERA over 10. That's a small sample size, but in his entire career he has an ERA over 4 against Oakland. That's a high number for a guy like Darvish. Dan Straily has the stuff to be an ace, and he has a 3.3 ERA against the Rangers. In a game like this, getting +1.5 is great because it clearly has the potential to be a low scoring game (look at the posted total here at just 6.5).  I'm not normally a big fan of +1.5 runline plays, but I like this one. 

The Rangers are 0-6 in Darvish's last 6 starts vs. Oakland. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games against Oakland. Oakland is 5-0 in their last 5 against a right-hander. The A's are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. the AL West. A 22-1 angle on the ML, and we're getting +1.5. Take Oakland. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers have been the biggest surprise in baseball so far this year. Their pitching staff has proven to be much better than most expected. Wily Peralta showed glimpses of brilliance late last year, and his season has started very well this year. Peralta is getting a lot of ground ball outs, and he is controlling his pitches much better than he has in the past. Andrew Cashner is a true budding superstar on the mound for the Padres. He has been absolutely dealing of late. This is a guy who is capable of shutting down any lineup he faces. He one-hit the Tigers in a CG shutout earlier this year. 

The under is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 Monday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 following a quality start. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a road underdog. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 when the team's opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Brewers last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 games during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his lats 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 60-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals are probably the best team in the National League this year. St. Louis has a terrific lineup and an amazing roster full of talented young starters. Their bullpen depth is better this year than it was a year ago. The New York Mets have a bunch of flaws. Lyons is a solid lefty for the Cardinals and the Mets are 3-15 in their last 18 games against lefties. The Mets are also 6-24 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Too short of a price on the Cardinals for me to pass this one up. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Detroit Tigers have owned the Chicago White Sox in the past couple seasons. Even more importantly, they have blasted John Danks in the past. Danks comes into this one with a brutal 6.41 ERA in his seven starts at Comerica Park. Detroit's lineup is very good, especially in the middle of the order. Danks allows a lot of baserunners and this lineup will make him pay for that. Anibal Sanchez is consistent starter who gives the Tigers a good outing almost every time he takes the mound. I see a major mismatch here. Take Detroit -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The San Diego Padres will go for the sweep of the San Francisco Giants on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco's Tim Lincecum isn't even close to the same pitcher he was a few years ago, but this Padres team has still been unable to figure out how to hit off Lincecum. In fact, Lincecum pitched a no-hitter last year at Petco Park against the Padres. Robbie Erlin has the potential to be a good pitcher, but he is too inconsistent right now. The Giants are a proud team and they look to avoid the sweep here. Lincecum should be the stopper. The Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum's last 8 starts at San Diego. Take the Giants. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cincinnati Reds have owned the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field of late. In their last 15 games at Wrigley, the Reds have lost just twice (and one of those was yesterday). Homer Bailey has started this season out pitching poorly, but if there is one place he loves to pitch it is Wrigley Field. Bailey has an ERA under 3 in his career at Wrigley. Carlos Villanueva has been mediocre his entire career, and the Cubs don't have nearly as good of a lineup as the Reds. Cincinnati has been down early this year, but this isn't a bad baseball team. This price is just too short on the Reds.

Cincinnati is 4-0 in their last 4 games during game 3 of a series. The Reds are 4-0 in Bailey's last 4 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in Bailey's last 5 starts at Wrigley. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts against the Cubs overall. A 23-1 angle. Take the Reds. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The New York Yankees hit left-handed pitching much better than right-handed pitching. Cesar Ramos isn't a true major league quality starting pitcher, and I expect the Yankees to take advantage of that. This Yankees lineup is stacked with tough hitters especially in the 1-6 slots. Tampa Bay's offense is weaker this year, and they are at a significant pitching disadvantage in this game. Vidal Nuno has pitched well in the minors for the Yankees, and I like his potential quite a bit. The Rays have been much worse against lefties. Take the underdog in this one. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays will go for the sweep in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. I believe the oddsmakers have overadjusted this line based on the fact that they assume Cleveland will avoid the sweep. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA of 5.97 at home in his career with the Indians. There is no reason to assume he'll pitch well against a good Blue Jays lineup. Brandon Morrow has all the stuff to be great, and he gives the Blue Jays the pitching edge here. Ron Kulpa is behind the dish and he'll give both pitchers the corners here. Morrow has an ERA of less than two in his career with Kulpa as the HP umpire. This one sets up well for Toronto.

Toronto is 7-0 in Morrow's last 7 starts as a road favorite. Cleveland is 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 0-11 in Carrasco's last 11 starts as a home underdog. They are 0-9 in his last 9 starts on 8 days of rest or more. They are 0-4 in his last 4 stats vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-8 in his last 8 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-5 in his last 5 vs. the AL East. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts when the Indians scored 2 runs or less in their previous game. A 52-0 angle. Take Toronto. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Rick Porcello has been awful against the Los Angeles Angels in his career. How bad has he been? Porcello has an ugly 8.34 ERA in more than 45 innings against the Angels. In such a large sample size, that's about as bad as you'll see. The Angels offense is a bit hobbled right now, but I expect them to have success against Porcello. Hector Santiago hasn't proven himself as a big league starter, and I expect him to have a tough time (as many pitchers will this year) against a very good Detroit Tigers lineup. 

The over is 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 starts against the Angels. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 following a game where they scored 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in the Angels last 5 during game three of a series. A 24-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers will start Matt Garza in this one.  Garza has a nice 2.65 ERA in three career starts at PNC Park. Garza's pitching style fits well at the spacious PNC Park. Wandy Rodriguez starts here for the Pirates, and I think something is wrong with him. He has had much lower velocity on his fastballs this year, and Rodriguez has been unimpressive this season. Rodriguez hasn't been particularly strong against the Brewers his entire career. He has a 4.06 ERA against them, and last year he had a 6.32 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee. His form right now is much worse than it has been in recent years, and this Brewers lineup is very solid.

Milwaukee is 6-0 in their last 6 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in the previous game. The Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 as a road favorite. The Pirates are 0-4 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 15-1 angle. Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles have had a lot of spirited battles in the past couple years. Most of those games have been great pitchers contests. These two teams don't score many runs when they get together. Chris Tillman has an impressive 2.37 ERA at Fenway Park in his career. Tillman will face a Red Sox lineup that has really struggled so far this year, and they definitely miss Shane Victorino. John Lackey has been great against Baltimore as well. Lackey has turned his career around once again in the past couple years. It will be a cold night with the wind blowing in at Fenway, which should help keep the ball in the yard.

The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 following a day off. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Tillman's last 6 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a dog of +110 to +150. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts following an Orioles loss in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5. The under is 6-0-1 in Boston's last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The under is 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 starts at Fenway. A 61-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* The Tampa Bay Rays have absolutely torched Hiroki Kuroda in his career. Kuroda has a dreadful ERA of 7.36 in his career against the Rays. Tampa Bay seems to have his number. Tampa Bay's offense has been struggling of late, but I think they'll get to Kuroda again here. New York piled up 10 runs last night. The Yankees are going to score a bunch of runs this year, and I think last night was a sign of things to come. Erik Bedard is way past his prime and this Yankees lineup is built to hit lefties well. I can't imagine him having too much success against this lineup. Joe West is a good umpire to have behind the dish with his small strike zone. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 games behind the plate. The over is 4-1 in Kuroda's 5 starts against Tampa Bay. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals meet in a game with two pitching stars Friday night. I love to back both Michael Wacha and Gio Gonzalez, but instead of picking a winner here I'm going to play the under. The Nationals are on quite an under streak of late, which I believe has given us some value on the under. Wacha nearly threw a no-hitter against the Nationals last year, and Gonzalez has a career ERA of just above 1 against the Cardinals. This St. Louis lineup is very good, but their weakness seems to be elite lefties and Gonzalez is definitely elite. At home, Gonzalez is often nearly unhittable. Both bullpens are deep and I see this one being a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers will have Yovani Gallardo on the mound in this one. Gallardo has been tremendous in the past against the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 52 and 1/3 innings pitched at PNC Park, Gallardo has a stellar 1.89 ERA. The right-hander has been dealing so far this season as well, and the Pirates offense isn't very good. I believe this Pirates team will take a step back this year. Pittsburgh starts Edinson Volquez, and he can't be trusted. He has been hit hard by Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and several of the Brewers top hitters in the past. Volquez's control is terrible, and he's capable of giving up huge innings at any time. Milwaukee has the much better offense, and the much better starting pitcher here.

The Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. They are 6-0 in Gallardo's last 6 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in his last 4 when their opponent scores two runs or fewer in their last game. Milwaukee is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on grass. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog.  A 50-0 angle. Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers may well be without Hanley Ramirez in this game after he was hit by a pitch and had to leave the game in last night's game. Ramirez is the best hitter on this team, and if he does miss this game it hurts them in a big way. Madison Bumgarner gets the start for the Giants and he has a superb 2.6 ERA in his career against the Dodgers. He has been particularly great against Los Angeles in his last few outings against them. Bumgarner is turning into one of the best pitchers in the National League. Hyun-Jin Ryu was torched by the Giants in his last game against them. He'll pitch better here, but the Giants do hit left-handed pitching well. This Giants offense is much better than last year's version. 

San Francisco is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The Giants are 6-0 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a -110 to -150 favorite. The Giants are 5-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts vs. the Dodgers. A 24-1 angle. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Atlanta Braves are playing very good baseball right now. They are the hottest team in the National League. Alex Wood is a name that bettors and baseball fans really need to get to know. Wood has been a top prospect in the Braves organization in the past few years, and he's starting to show why at the major league level. This is a guy who I expect big things from in the next few seasons. On the other side, A.J. Burnett is 37 years old and battling a hernia injury. He was due for some regression already, and with him at less than 100 percent, I'm glad to fade Burnett in this one against a high quality offense. Several Braves hitters have great career numbers against Burnett. The Phillies are way down this year, and they'll be up against a very good young pitcher.

Atlanta is 4-0 in their last 4 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. The Braves are 2-0 in their last 2 games against the Phillies. A 14-0 angle. Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants offense has surprised a lot of people so far this year. Angel Pagan is getting on at the top of the order and setting the table for guys like Sandoval and Posey. Brandon Belt is stepping up in a big way as well. The Dodgers lineup is one of the best in the National League, and they'll score plenty of runs this year. 

Ryan Vogelsong has an ERA of 8.7 in his last three starts against the Dodgers. Vogelsong was torched through the spring and has been really bad in his regular season starts as well. It seems he either has something wrong medically or his confidence is completely gone. I expect the Dodgers to hit him well again Wednesday night. Paul Maholm isn't a guy I trust, and the Giants have hit left-handed pitching well of late. The Giants should get their runs as well in this one.

The over is 10-1-2 in the Giants last 13 Wednesday games. The over is 10-1 in the Giants last 11 as a favorite. The over is 20-4-2 in Vogelsong's last 26 starts as a favorite. A 40-4 angle here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Kansas City Royals haven't been very good so far this year, but to see them as this small of a favorite against the lowly Houston Astros was a big surprise. Kansas City should be a team that finishes .500 or so this year, and the Astros are absolutely capable of losing 100 games or more again. Jeremy Guthrie pitches for the Royals here and he has a 1.62 ERA in his career with home plate umpire Ron Kulpa behind the dish. Kulpa's big strike zone is a huge help to a guy like Guthrie. Dallas Keuchel has been terrible at home for Houston, and the Royals are much better against left-handed pitching than righties. A nice value here.

Houston is 1-12 in Keuchel's last 13 games on five days of rest. The Astros are 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game two of a series. The Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. A 20-1 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Yu Darvish will be on the mound for the Texas Rangers on Wednesday night. To say that Darvish has been great in his first two starts this year is an understatement. He hasn't allowed a run yet, and he has only given up eight hits in 15 innings of work. Darvish arguably has the nastiest stuff in the majors, and when he has it working, no one can hit this guy. Felix Hernandez is a tremendous pitcher, but he has struggled in Texas in the past. He has an ERA of 4.45 in his career in Arlington. This Rangers lineup is much better than they have shown so far this year, and I expect them to end the year as one of the best offenses in baseball. Seattle's offense is improved, but they have a long ways to go to be at the same level as the Rangers offensively.

Texas is 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts as a favorite. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a -110 to -150 favorite. The Rangers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Texas is 4-0 in Darvish's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. Seattle is 0-5 in their last vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. A 32-0 angle. Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants offense has started the season on fire. The Giants struggled offensively all year in 2013, but this lineup has been much better. Michael Morse gives the team a nice boost, and Brandon Belt has been much more consistent of late. They'll be up against Josh Beckett in this one. Beckett hasn't been an elite pitcher in the last couple years, and I expect the Giants to put up several runs. Tim Lincecum starts for San Francisco here. He has pitched poorly in both starts this year despite facing the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks. Lincecum isn't even close to the caliber of pitcher he was a few seasons ago. His velocity is way down, and that's a major problem. The Dodgers lineup has been very good this year. Both of these pitchers are past their prime. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a righty. The over is 5-0 in Beckett's last 5 starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. A 32-0 angle. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals have what I believe is the best lineup in the National League right now. Everyone in this lineup can hit the ball. Marco Estrada has been pitching well so far this year, but Estrada's history against the Cardinals has been terrible. In 47 innings, Estrada has a 5.74 ERA against the Cardinals in his career. Milwaukee's offense has been superb this year, and Shelby Miller has totally lost his confidence and command on the mound. Miller has a 4.7 ERA on the road in his career, and he has been pitching very poorly of late. I don't expect him to turn it around in this one against a good Brewers lineup. Take the over in this one.