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Kyle Hunter MLB Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-23-14	Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5		1-3	Win	100	11 h 35 m	Show
4 Star MLB Early Bird Special Aaron Harang has been brilliant so far this year for the Braves. Harang is a big reason why the Braves are at the top of the division this year. He was signed late after the team lost several pitchers to injuries. He has performed far better than any Braves fan could have ever hoped. Harang pitched a no-hitter through seven innings last time out. He faces a weak Miami lineup in this one. Nate Eovaldi has an ERA just above 2 in his career against Atlanta. Eovaldi is a young starter who I believe will turn into a very good pitcher in the next couple years. It's getaway day here and with the early start I expect some top hitters to get the day off here. The under is 7-0-1 in Eovaldi's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in Atlanta's last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Eovaldi's last 4 starts in Atlanta. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 starts against Atlanta overall. A 26-0 angle. Take the under.
04-22-14	San Francisco Giants -121 v. Colorado Rockies		1-2	Loss	-121	19 h 32 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The San Francisco Giants have been slumping on offense of late. Franklin Morales hasn't proven himself as a starter in the majors, and I'll look to fade him when given the chance this year. The Giants offense should have more scoring opportunities in this one against Morales. Madison Bumgarner is on the mound for the Giants, and he has been great against Colorado in his career. The Giants are even 5-2 in his last 7 starts at Coors Field. Michael Cuddyer is one of the Rockies most consistent hitters, and he went on the DL yesterday. The Giants have a significant edge in the bullpen and in the starting pitching in this matchup. The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 road starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a team loss in the previous game. The Rockies are 0-4 in Morales' last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. A 17-0 angle. Take the Giants.
04-22-14	Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -125		1-0	Loss	-125	17 h 3 m	Show
3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR The Atlanta Braves have a tough task ahead of them here as they go up against Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is one of my favorite pitchers in the league because of his amazing stuff, and it's hard to go against him. Still, it must be pointed out that he has a career ERA of 4.00 on the road. Atlanta is a very good team, and Fernandez is backed by a Marlins team that will lose a lot of games. Also, don't discount how good of a pitcher Alex Wood is. The Braves have found a star pitcher in Wood. He has been on point all season this year. Atlanta has the much better bullpen and the much better lineup. The Marlins are 0-8 on the road this year. Miami is 1-8 in Fernandez's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 16-1 angle. Take Atlanta.
04-22-14	Kansas City Royals +102 v. Cleveland Indians		8-2	Win	102	17 h 27 m	Show
3 Star MLB Dog of Day The Cleveland Indians will start Danny Salazar in this one. Salazar looked great late last year, but he has hit a major speed bump so far this year. Salazar's control has been shaky and opposing teams are making him pay. Kansas City's lineup is better than they have shown thus far this year, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here. James Shields is a consistently good pitcher. He has a solid career against the Indians. His last three starts against Cleveland have been very good. The Royals have won 4 of his last 5 starts against Cleveland. Big pitching edge for the Royals here. Kansas City should be favored here. Take the Royals.
04-21-14	Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's +1.5		4-3	Win	100	21 h 24 m	Show
3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT Oakland is a very good team on their home field. The Athletics win with small ball, and that has proven to be extremely effective at home for this team. Texas is a good team with an elite pitcher going in Yu Darvish here, but Darvish hasn't pitched well against Oakland in his career. In two starts at Oakland, he has an ERA over 10. That's a small sample size, but in his entire career he has an ERA over 4 against Oakland. That's a high number for a guy like Darvish. Dan Straily has the stuff to be an ace, and he has a 3.3 ERA against the Rangers. In a game like this, getting +1.5 is great because it clearly has the potential to be a low scoring game (look at the posted total here at just 6.5). I'm not normally a big fan of +1.5 runline plays, but I like this one. The Rangers are 0-6 in Darvish's last 6 starts vs. Oakland. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games against Oakland. Oakland is 5-0 in their last 5 against a right-hander. The A's are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. the AL West. A 22-1 angle on the ML, and we're getting +1.5. Take Oakland.
04-21-14	San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5		3-4	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Milwaukee Brewers have been the biggest surprise in baseball so far this year. Their pitching staff has proven to be much better than most expected. Wily Peralta showed glimpses of brilliance late last year, and his season has started very well this year. Peralta is getting a lot of ground ball outs, and he is controlling his pitches much better than he has in the past. Andrew Cashner is a true budding superstar on the mound for the Padres. He has been absolutely dealing of late. This is a guy who is capable of shutting down any lineup he faces. He one-hit the Tigers in a CG shutout earlier this year. The under is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 Monday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 following a quality start. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a road underdog. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 when the team's opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Brewers last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 games during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his lats 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 60-0 angle. Take the under.
04-21-14	St. Louis Cardinals -106 v. New York Mets		0-2	Loss	-106	19 h 33 m	Show
4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH The St. Louis Cardinals are probably the best team in the National League this year. St. Louis has a terrific lineup and an amazing roster full of talented young starters. Their bullpen depth is better this year than it was a year ago. The New York Mets have a bunch of flaws. Lyons is a solid lefty for the Cardinals and the Mets are 3-15 in their last 18 games against lefties. The Mets are also 6-24 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Too short of a price on the Cardinals for me to pass this one up. Take St. Louis.
04-21-14	Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -1.5		3-1	Loss	-100	18 h 29 m	Show
3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH The Detroit Tigers have owned the Chicago White Sox in the past couple seasons. Even more importantly, they have blasted John Danks in the past. Danks comes into this one with a brutal 6.41 ERA in his seven starts at Comerica Park. Detroit's lineup is very good, especially in the middle of the order. Danks allows a lot of baserunners and this lineup will make him pay for that. Anibal Sanchez is consistent starter who gives the Tigers a good outing almost every time he takes the mound. I see a major mismatch here. Take Detroit -1.5.
04-20-14	San Francisco Giants +102 v. San Diego Padres		4-3	Win	102	15 h 45 m	Show
3 Star MLB Moneyline Value The San Diego Padres will go for the sweep of the San Francisco Giants on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco's Tim Lincecum isn't even close to the same pitcher he was a few years ago, but this Padres team has still been unable to figure out how to hit off Lincecum. In fact, Lincecum pitched a no-hitter last year at Petco Park against the Padres. Robbie Erlin has the potential to be a good pitcher, but he is too inconsistent right now. The Giants are a proud team and they look to avoid the sweep here. Lincecum should be the stopper. The Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum's last 8 starts at San Diego. Take the Giants.
04-20-14	Cincinnati Reds -114 v. Chicago Cubs		8-2	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Cincinnati Reds have owned the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field of late. In their last 15 games at Wrigley, the Reds have lost just twice (and one of those was yesterday). Homer Bailey has started this season out pitching poorly, but if there is one place he loves to pitch it is Wrigley Field. Bailey has an ERA under 3 in his career at Wrigley. Carlos Villanueva has been mediocre his entire career, and the Cubs don't have nearly as good of a lineup as the Reds. Cincinnati has been down early this year, but this isn't a bad baseball team. This price is just too short on the Reds. Cincinnati is 4-0 in their last 4 games during game 3 of a series. The Reds are 4-0 in Bailey's last 4 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in Bailey's last 5 starts at Wrigley. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts against the Cubs overall. A 23-1 angle. Take the Reds.
04-20-14	New York Yankees +115 v. Tampa Bay Rays		5-1	Win	115	12 h 41 m	Show
3 Star MLB Dog of Day The New York Yankees hit left-handed pitching much better than right-handed pitching. Cesar Ramos isn't a true major league quality starting pitcher, and I expect the Yankees to take advantage of that. This Yankees lineup is stacked with tough hitters especially in the 1-6 slots. Tampa Bay's offense is weaker this year, and they are at a significant pitching disadvantage in this game. Vidal Nuno has pitched well in the minors for the Yankees, and I like his potential quite a bit. The Rays have been much worse against lefties. Take the underdog in this one. Take the Yankees.
04-20-14	Toronto Blue Jays -104 v. Cleveland Indians		4-6	Loss	-104	11 h 10 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Toronto Blue Jays will go for the sweep in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. I believe the oddsmakers have overadjusted this line based on the fact that they assume Cleveland will avoid the sweep. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA of 5.97 at home in his career with the Indians. There is no reason to assume he'll pitch well against a good Blue Jays lineup. Brandon Morrow has all the stuff to be great, and he gives the Blue Jays the pitching edge here. Ron Kulpa is behind the dish and he'll give both pitchers the corners here. Morrow has an ERA of less than two in his career with Kulpa as the HP umpire. This one sets up well for Toronto. Toronto is 7-0 in Morrow's last 7 starts as a road favorite. Cleveland is 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 0-11 in Carrasco's last 11 starts as a home underdog. They are 0-9 in his last 9 starts on 8 days of rest or more. They are 0-4 in his last 4 stats vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-8 in his last 8 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-5 in his last 5 vs. the AL East. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts when the Indians scored 2 runs or less in their previous game. A 52-0 angle. Take Toronto.
04-20-14	Los Angeles Angels v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5		1-2	Loss	-105	11 h 59 m	Show
4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION Rick Porcello has been awful against the Los Angeles Angels in his career. How bad has he been? Porcello has an ugly 8.34 ERA in more than 45 innings against the Angels. In such a large sample size, that's about as bad as you'll see. The Angels offense is a bit hobbled right now, but I expect them to have success against Porcello. Hector Santiago hasn't proven himself as a big league starter, and I expect him to have a tough time (as many pitchers will this year) against a very good Detroit Tigers lineup. The over is 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 starts against the Angels. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 following a game where they scored 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in the Angels last 5 during game three of a series. A 24-1 angle. Take the over.
04-19-14	Milwaukee Brewers -110 v. Pittsburgh Pirates		8-7	Win	100	15 h 20 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of Day The Milwaukee Brewers will start Matt Garza in this one. Garza has a nice 2.65 ERA in three career starts at PNC Park. Garza's pitching style fits well at the spacious PNC Park. Wandy Rodriguez starts here for the Pirates, and I think something is wrong with him. He has had much lower velocity on his fastballs this year, and Rodriguez has been unimpressive this season. Rodriguez hasn't been particularly strong against the Brewers his entire career. He has a 4.06 ERA against them, and last year he had a 6.32 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee. His form right now is much worse than it has been in recent years, and this Brewers lineup is very solid. Milwaukee is 6-0 in their last 6 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in the previous game. The Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 as a road favorite. The Pirates are 0-4 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 15-1 angle. Take Milwaukee.
04-18-14	Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8		8-4	Loss	-105	16 h 26 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles have had a lot of spirited battles in the past couple years. Most of those games have been great pitchers contests. These two teams don't score many runs when they get together. Chris Tillman has an impressive 2.37 ERA at Fenway Park in his career. Tillman will face a Red Sox lineup that has really struggled so far this year, and they definitely miss Shane Victorino. John Lackey has been great against Baltimore as well. Lackey has turned his career around once again in the past couple years. It will be a cold night with the wind blowing in at Fenway, which should help keep the ball in the yard. The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 following a day off. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Tillman's last 6 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a dog of +110 to +150. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts following an Orioles loss in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5. The under is 6-0-1 in Boston's last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The under is 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 starts at Fenway. A 61-0 angle. Take the under.
04-18-14	New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7.5		5-11	Win	111	16 h 19 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Value Play The Tampa Bay Rays have absolutely torched Hiroki Kuroda in his career. Kuroda has a dreadful ERA of 7.36 in his career against the Rays. Tampa Bay seems to have his number. Tampa Bay's offense has been struggling of late, but I think they'll get to Kuroda again here. New York piled up 10 runs last night. The Yankees are going to score a bunch of runs this year, and I think last night was a sign of things to come. Erik Bedard is way past his prime and this Yankees lineup is built to hit lefties well. I can't imagine him having too much success against this lineup. Joe West is a good umpire to have behind the dish with his small strike zone. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 games behind the plate. The over is 4-1 in Kuroda's 5 starts against Tampa Bay. Take the over.
04-18-14	St. Louis Cardinals v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7		1-3	Win	100	16 h 15 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals meet in a game with two pitching stars Friday night. I love to back both Michael Wacha and Gio Gonzalez, but instead of picking a winner here I'm going to play the under. The Nationals are on quite an under streak of late, which I believe has given us some value on the under. Wacha nearly threw a no-hitter against the Nationals last year, and Gonzalez has a career ERA of just above 1 against the Cardinals. This St. Louis lineup is very good, but their weakness seems to be elite lefties and Gonzalez is definitely elite. At home, Gonzalez is often nearly unhittable. Both bullpens are deep and I see this one being a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under.
04-17-14	Milwaukee Brewers -110 v. Pittsburgh Pirates		2-11	Loss	-110	17 h 17 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Milwaukee Brewers will have Yovani Gallardo on the mound in this one. Gallardo has been tremendous in the past against the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 52 and 1/3 innings pitched at PNC Park, Gallardo has a stellar 1.89 ERA. The right-hander has been dealing so far this season as well, and the Pirates offense isn't very good. I believe this Pirates team will take a step back this year. Pittsburgh starts Edinson Volquez, and he can't be trusted. He has been hit hard by Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and several of the Brewers top hitters in the past. Volquez's control is terrible, and he's capable of giving up huge innings at any time. Milwaukee has the much better offense, and the much better starting pitcher here. The Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. They are 6-0 in Gallardo's last 6 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in his last 4 when their opponent scores two runs or fewer in their last game. Milwaukee is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on grass. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog. A 50-0 angle. Take Milwaukee.
04-17-14	Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants -110		2-1	Loss	-110	14 h 51 m	Show
3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER The Los Angeles Dodgers may well be without Hanley Ramirez in this game after he was hit by a pitch and had to leave the game in last night's game. Ramirez is the best hitter on this team, and if he does miss this game it hurts them in a big way. Madison Bumgarner gets the start for the Giants and he has a superb 2.6 ERA in his career against the Dodgers. He has been particularly great against Los Angeles in his last few outings against them. Bumgarner is turning into one of the best pitchers in the National League. Hyun-Jin Ryu was torched by the Giants in his last game against them. He'll pitch better here, but the Giants do hit left-handed pitching well. This Giants offense is much better than last year's version. San Francisco is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The Giants are 6-0 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a -110 to -150 favorite. The Giants are 5-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts vs. the Dodgers. A 24-1 angle. Take San Francisco.
04-17-14	Atlanta Braves -130 v. Philadelphia Phillies		0-1	Loss	-130	11 h 7 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Atlanta Braves are playing very good baseball right now. They are the hottest team in the National League. Alex Wood is a name that bettors and baseball fans really need to get to know. Wood has been a top prospect in the Braves organization in the past few years, and he's starting to show why at the major league level. This is a guy who I expect big things from in the next few seasons. On the other side, A.J. Burnett is 37 years old and battling a hernia injury. He was due for some regression already, and with him at less than 100 percent, I'm glad to fade Burnett in this one against a high quality offense. Several Braves hitters have great career numbers against Burnett. The Phillies are way down this year, and they'll be up against a very good young pitcher. Atlanta is 4-0 in their last 4 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. The Braves are 2-0 in their last 2 games against the Phillies. A 14-0 angle. Take Atlanta.
04-16-14	Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 8		1-2	Loss	-110	21 h 52 m	Show
4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The San Francisco Giants offense has surprised a lot of people so far this year. Angel Pagan is getting on at the top of the order and setting the table for guys like Sandoval and Posey. Brandon Belt is stepping up in a big way as well. The Dodgers lineup is one of the best in the National League, and they'll score plenty of runs this year. Ryan Vogelsong has an ERA of 8.7 in his last three starts against the Dodgers. Vogelsong was torched through the spring and has been really bad in his regular season starts as well. It seems he either has something wrong medically or his confidence is completely gone. I expect the Dodgers to hit him well again Wednesday night. Paul Maholm isn't a guy I trust, and the Giants have hit left-handed pitching well of late. The Giants should get their runs as well in this one. The over is 10-1-2 in the Giants last 13 Wednesday games. The over is 10-1 in the Giants last 11 as a favorite. The over is 20-4-2 in Vogelsong's last 26 starts as a favorite. A 40-4 angle here. Take the over.
04-16-14	Kansas City Royals -118 v. Houston Astros		6-4	Win	100	19 h 60 m	Show
3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR The Kansas City Royals haven't been very good so far this year, but to see them as this small of a favorite against the lowly Houston Astros was a big surprise. Kansas City should be a team that finishes .500 or so this year, and the Astros are absolutely capable of losing 100 games or more again. Jeremy Guthrie pitches for the Royals here and he has a 1.62 ERA in his career with home plate umpire Ron Kulpa behind the dish. Kulpa's big strike zone is a huge help to a guy like Guthrie. Dallas Keuchel has been terrible at home for Houston, and the Royals are much better against left-handed pitching than righties. A nice value here. Houston is 1-12 in Keuchel's last 13 games on five days of rest. The Astros are 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game two of a series. The Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. A 20-1 angle. Take Kansas City.
04-16-14	Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -121		2-3	Win	100	19 h 32 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER Yu Darvish will be on the mound for the Texas Rangers on Wednesday night. To say that Darvish has been great in his first two starts this year is an understatement. He hasn't allowed a run yet, and he has only given up eight hits in 15 innings of work. Darvish arguably has the nastiest stuff in the majors, and when he has it working, no one can hit this guy. Felix Hernandez is a tremendous pitcher, but he has struggled in Texas in the past. He has an ERA of 4.45 in his career in Arlington. This Rangers lineup is much better than they have shown so far this year, and I expect them to end the year as one of the best offenses in baseball. Seattle's offense is improved, but they have a long ways to go to be at the same level as the Rangers offensively. Texas is 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts as a favorite. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a -110 to -150 favorite. The Rangers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Texas is 4-0 in Darvish's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. Seattle is 0-5 in their last vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. A 32-0 angle. Take Texas.
04-15-14	Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5		2-3	Loss	-114	13 h 6 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The San Francisco Giants offense has started the season on fire. The Giants struggled offensively all year in 2013, but this lineup has been much better. Michael Morse gives the team a nice boost, and Brandon Belt has been much more consistent of late. They'll be up against Josh Beckett in this one. Beckett hasn't been an elite pitcher in the last couple years, and I expect the Giants to put up several runs. Tim Lincecum starts for San Francisco here. He has pitched poorly in both starts this year despite facing the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks. Lincecum isn't even close to the caliber of pitcher he was a few seasons ago. His velocity is way down, and that's a major problem. The Dodgers lineup has been very good this year. Both of these pitchers are past their prime. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a righty. The over is 5-0 in Beckett's last 5 starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. A 32-0 angle. Take the over.
04-15-14	St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8		6-1	Loss	-112	11 h 3 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The St. Louis Cardinals have what I believe is the best lineup in the National League right now. Everyone in this lineup can hit the ball. Marco Estrada has been pitching well so far this year, but Estrada's history against the Cardinals has been terrible. In 47 innings, Estrada has a 5.74 ERA against the Cardinals in his career. Milwaukee's offense has been superb this year, and Shelby Miller has totally lost his confidence and command on the mound. Miller has a 4.7 ERA on the road in his career, and he has been pitching very poorly of late. I don't expect him to turn it around in this one against a good Brewers lineup. Take the over in this one.
04-14-14	Colorado Rockies v. San Diego Padres -110		4-5	Win	100	20 h 12 m	Show
3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT The Colorado Rockies aren't the same team on the road. The Rockies pile up the runs at home, but they often struggle to score on the road. Eric Stults struggles away from home, but he knows how to pitch at Petco Park. The Padres are 13-5 in Stults' last 18 starts at home. Colorado starts Jordan Lyles in this one, and he has been inconsistent his entire career. San Diego is an improved team this year, and these are the type of games where I see value in backing the Padres. The Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 games in San Diego. Colorado is 17-40 in their last 57 road games overall. Take San Diego here.
04-14-14	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -120		7-7	Push	0	17 h 12 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Cincinnati Reds are 4-8 so far this year. Their offense has been horrible for the majority of the season, but they had a breakout day yesterday and scored 12 runs on the Rays. Cincinnati is better than they have played so far this year. Wandy Rodriguez starts here for the Pirates, and he has been laboring this year. Rodriguez's velocity has dropped of late, and he has always struggled away from home. The Reds have hit him very well in the past (especially Joey Votto). Homer Bailey has had two rough starts this year, but that was against the Cardinals. The Pirates lineup isn't even close to as good as the Cardinals. Pittsburgh is 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. They are are 0-4 in their last 4 as a road underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The Pirates are 0-4 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts. They are 0-4 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts against the Reds as well. A 20-0 angle. Take the Reds.
04-14-14	Tampa Bay Rays -110 v. Baltimore Orioles		1-7	Loss	-110	17 h 7 m	Show
3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR The Tampa Bay Rays have a budding ace in Chris Archer on the hill in this one. Archer has been really sharp in his first two starts of the season. The Rays have had a bunch of success at Baltimore in recent years, and Chen has been shaky so far this year for the Orioles. Tampa Bay has been a solid road team in the past couple seasons, and they have a big pitching advantage here. Baltimore's bullpen isn't as good as it has been in recent years, and that could slow them down this season. I expected the Rays to be at least a -120 favorite here. Plenty of value on the moneyline here. Take Tampa Bay.
04-13-14	Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5		8-6	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks will battle at Chase Field Sunday afternoon. The roof is expected to be open, and that is huge for this total. With the roof open and the hot and dry weather conditions, the ball really travels well. It is expected to be 88 degrees with the wind blowing out at 15 miles per hour for this one. Those are perfect conditions for some long balls and lots of runs. Dan Haren is only a mediocre pitcher at this stage in his career, and Trevor Cahill has struggled badly with the roof open at Chase Field in the past. The Dodgers certainly have a lineup that can make him pay. The over is 8-1 in Arizona's last 9 games following a loss. Take the over.
04-13-14	Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5		4-6	Win	100	12 h 34 m	Show
4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH The Chicago Cubs aren't even close to the level of team that the St. Louis Cardinals are on an average day, and with this pitching mismatch I expect this game to get ugly. Michael Wacha is one of the best young pitchers in the game and I expect another stellar season from him. He's already off to a great start this year. Edwin Jackson has an ERA above 6 in the last two seasons against the Cardinals. Almost all of the regulars in the Cardinals lineup have crushed Jackson in the past. This Cardinals team is extremely good, and it's tough to find a weakness on this roster. Expect the lineup to put up quite a few runs here, and Wacha is unlikely to get touched up for many by this flawed Cubs lineup. Take St. Louis -1.5.
04-13-14	Kansas City Royals -125 v. Minnesota Twins		3-4	Loss	-125	11 h 29 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Kansas City Royals have lost the first two games in this series, but I like their chances of finishing this series off with a win against a bad Twins ball club. Kevin Correia has been hit hard this year, and he also has a terrible track record against the Royals. Jason Vargas seems to have turned a corner this year. He has been great in his first two starts, and he has the stuff to be a quality pitcher for Kansas City. The Twins have struggled against lefties the past couple seasons. Minnesota is 0-8 in Correia's last 8 starts with the total set at 7-8.5 runs. The Twins are 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. the AL Central. Minnesota is 0-6 in Correia's last 6 starts after the Twins scored 5 runs or more last game. They are 0-7 in their last 7 home starts. They are 0-6 in his last 6 on 5 days of rest. They are 0-5 in Correia's last 5 as a home underdog. The Twins are 0-5 in Correia's last 5 starts against the Royals. A 42-0 angle. Take Kansas City.
04-12-14	Detroit Tigers -135 v. San Diego Padres		6-2	Win	100	18 h 1 m	Show
3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR Justin Verlander rolled right through Spring Training without allowing a single run. Verlander may have slumped a bit late last year, but he is still one of the top pitchers in the game. He'll be up against a weak Padres lineup in this one. I like his chances of dominating in this game. San Diego starts Ian Kennedy, and I think Kennedy is regressing pretty dramatically as a pitcher right now. Kennedy is losing some heat from his fastball and teams are able to put together big innings against him. This Tigers lineup was shutout by Andrew Cashner last night, and that makes it even more likely that they will bounce back against a lesser pitcher here. Detroit's offense is one of the best in baseball. Too short of a price here on the Tigers. Take Detroit.
04-12-14	Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8		8-5	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The Los Angeles Dodgers have a very good lineup, and the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup is much better than they have shown thus far this season. Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open, and it is scheduled to be open in this one. The ball flies extremely well with the dry heat this time of the year. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph here as well, which will help in a big way. Wade Miley and Zack Greinke are capable of giving up the long ball, and they have both struggled here in the past with the roof open. This total is a good value at just 8 runs. Take the over.
04-12-14	Cleveland Indians -125 v. Chicago White Sox		12-6	Win	100	14 h 51 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Cleveland Indians have lost the first two games of this series in Chicago. The White Sox got a boost from their ace Chris Sale going last night, but the Indians will get a boost from their top pitcher going in this one. Justin Masterson has completely dominated the Chicago White Sox in his career. In 129 and 2/3 innings of work against Chicago, Masterson has a great 2.22 ERA. He has a 2.28 ERA at US Cellular Field. Felipe Paulino can't be trusted right now. Paulino has some control problems and was lit up all spring. The Indians offense has been good the last couple nights, and they should get a much better pitching effort in this one. Cleveland is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The White Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 6-0 in their last 6 against Chicago when Masterson is on the mound. They are 5-0 in Masterson's last 5 starts at Chicago against the White Sox. A 20-0 angle. Take Cleveland.
04-11-14	Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox OVER 7.5	Top	6-9	Win	100	18 h 26 m	Show
5 Star MLB TOP Play DOMINATOR Chris Sale has been able to shut down most teams, but the Cleveland Indians have actually had quite a bit of success against him. Sale has a poor 4.71 ERA in his career against the Tribe. In four starts against Cleveland last year, Sale allowed 22 runs in 23 innings of work. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA above 5 in his major league career. He hasn't been consistent at all, and the White Sox do have some guys who can make you pay for mistake pitches. Abreu is looking like a very good find for the White Sox. Chicago has some pop, and they have hit Carrasco well in the past. Carrasco has an ERA of 6.75 against the White Sox in 32 career innings pitched against them. This total is set very low, and it gives us lots of value on the over. The over is 9-0 in the Indians last 9 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The over is 8-0 in the Indians last 8 as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The over is 4-0 in Carrasco's last 4 starts on grass. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game two of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 5-0 in the White Sox last 5 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. A 44-0 angle. Take the over big!
04-11-14	Washington Nationals v. Atlanta Braves -124		6-7	Win	100	19 h 32 m	Show
4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH The Atlanta Braves have dominated the Washington Nationals in the past couple years. The Nationals have won just 7 of the last 26 meetings between these two teams. Tanner Roark pitched well last season, but his BABIP rate was barely above .240. That tells me Roark isn't as good as his numbers from last year show. Julio Teheran is the real deal, and he has pitched well against the Nationals in his career. He picked up a win in Washington last week. The Braves lineup has underperformed of late, but I still think they are high quality. Atlanta's bullpen is excellent again this year. The Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. Atlanta is 5-0 in Teheran's last 5 vs. the NL East. They are 4-0 in his last 4 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Braves are 5-1 in Teheran's last 6 starts against Washington. A 24-1 angle. Take Atlanta.
04-11-14	Miami Marlins -121 v. Philadelphia Phillies		3-6	Loss	-121	17 h 28 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER Jose Fernandez is one of the best young pitchers I have ever seen burst onto the scenes. Remember, Fernandez is only 21 years of age. He has already been mowing down hitters with elite stuff, and I don't expect hitters to figure him out anytime soon. In 3 career starts against the Phillies, Fernandez has allowed only 1 run in 18 innings pitched. He pitched a one-hit shutout in 7 innings at Philadelphia last year. A.J. Burnett was very good last year, but I expect him to be worse this season. Burnett played in front of a great defense in Pittsburgh, and PNC Park is a great pitcher-friendly park. Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly park. In addition, the Pirates saved 77 runs with their defense over the course of last season. The Phillies defense cost pitchers 103 runs last season, which was the worst mark in baseball. Miami is 5-0 in their last 5 with a total of 6.5 or lower. The Marlins are 9-0 in Fernandez's last 9 starts as a favorite. They are 8-0 in his last 8 as a road favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. They are 4-0 in his last 4 with a total set at 6.5 runs or lower. They are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. A 46-0 angle. Take Miami.
04-10-14	Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5		6-5	Win	100	20 h 23 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The San Francisco Giants have been hitting the ball surprisingly well so far this year. The Giants have been getting quality contributions from guys like Brandon Belt and Michael Morse. Morse fits well into this lineup, and he provides Buster Posey with some protection. Arizona's offense broke out last night against Tim Lincecum. Ryan Vogelsong hasn't looked sharp at all this year. He had a 9.00 ERA in the spring, and he labored through his first regular season start. Randall Delgado was torched at Colorado last week, and he had an ERA above 5 in the spring. The over is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 home games. The over is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 games as a favorite. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 with a total set at 7-8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in Delgado's last 5 starts on grass. The over is 3-0-1 in Delgado's last 4 starts as an underdog. The over is 6-0-1 in Delgado's last 7 road starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. A 43-0 angle. Take the over.
04-09-14	Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners OVER 8		2-0	Loss	-101	21 h 39 m	Show
4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners both have pretty good lineups. I think both lineups are in a favorable matchup vs. the opposing starting pitcher here. Garrett Richards is a decent pitcher, but he hasn't shown the consistency necessary to trust him. Seattle's offense is red hot right now, and the Mariners lineup is much improved from last year. Elias is a pitcher who hadn't pitched above Double A before his start last week against Oakland. He'll face a better lineup this time, and I think Elias will end up showing he has been rushed too much to the majors. The over is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The over is 6-0-1 in the Angels last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 games following a loss. The over is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 head to head meetings between these teams. A 29-1 angle. Take the over.
04-09-14	Milwaukee Brewers -126 v. Philadelphia Phillies		9-4	Win	100	17 h 7 m	Show
4 MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Milwaukee Brewers were a big play for me yesterday, and they cashed in big thanks to a massive day from Ryan Braun. I'll back the Brewers for a second straight day here. Philadelphia isn't a very good team this year. Roberto Hernandez has been regressing for several seasons in a row, and the Phillies defense was one of the worst in the league in runs saved last year. Hernandez was booted from the Rays rotation last year, and pitching in Philadelphia should be even tougher for him. Milwaukee starts Matt Garza, who has been solid throughout his career. Milwaukee clearly has a stronger lineup than the Phillies and their bullpen is much better than the Phillies. Milwaukee is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or less. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games overall. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. They are 7-0 in their last 7 road games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in the previous game. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite. They are 4-0 in their last 4 on grass. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a righty. They are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in the last game. The Brewers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 60-0 angle. Take Milwaukee.
04-09-14	Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5		7-10	Win	115	5 h 15 m	Show
3 Star MLB Runline Value Play I backed the Washington Nationals on the run line yesterday, and I'll do the same again today. Jordan Zimmerman is still underrated as a starting pitcher. He is extremely consistent and no one in the Marlins lineup has hit him well outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Brad Hand starts here for the Marlins and he has an ERA of 8 against the Nationals in his career. Hand isn't a true starter and the bullpen will have to work a bunch for the Marlins in this one. Washington has one of the best bullpens in the league, and the Marlins bullpen is no better than mediocre. Miami is overrated based on their early season success. This one is a mismatch all around. Take Washington -1.5.
04-08-14	Chicago White Sox v. Colorado Rockies -123		15-3	Loss	-123	18 h 22 m	Show
3 Star MLB Moneyline Value The Colorado Rockies have a terrific lineup. Colorado is going to score a bunch of runs at Coors Field this year. I'm not sure the White Sox can keep up. Jose Quintana has been pretty good in his career for Chicago, but he is wildly inconsistent and he has some very ugly games. He's never pitched at Coors Field, and I expect it to be a struggle for him. I don't like anything about this White Sox team, and I think the Rockies will take it to them just as they did last night. Big hitting advantage for the Rockies. Take Colorado here.
04-08-14	Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -135	Top	5-7	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week The St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in the NL Central, and I don't think it's particularly close. Homer Bailey is a good pitcher for the Reds, but the Cardinals absolutely have his number. Bailey has a 4.90 ERA in nearly 100 innings pitched against the Cardinals. His ERA is 5.54 at St. Louis. Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, and several others in this St. Louis lineup have been great against Bailey. Lance Lynn has an ERA of less than 3 at home in his career. The Reds lineup can't seem to string together hits so far this year. St. Louis has the much better lineup and the much better bullpen at this point. This is a very affordable price on a mismatch. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a righty. They are 0-4 in their last 4 road games against a right handed starter. The Reds are 1-7 in Bailey's last 8 road starts against the Cardinals. A 19-1 angle. Take the Cardinals big!
04-08-14	Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5		0-5	Win	123	17 h 8 m	Show
4 Star MLB Runline SMASHER The Miami Marlins are a much improved team, but they aren't even close to the caliber of team that the Washington Nationals are. Gio Gonzalez is still an underrated pitcher despite being extremely consistent and good all throughout his career. Henderson Alvarez is talented, but he's inconsistent and he has struggled with the Nationals in the past. Gio Gonzalez has a 1.7 ERA in his career against the Marlins. Too cheap of a price on the runline here. Take Washington -1.5.
04-08-14	Milwaukee Brewers +102 v. Philadelphia Phillies	Top	10-4	Win	102	14 h 41 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER The Milwaukee Brewers start Kyle Lohse in this one. Lohse is a veteran pitcher who I trust to give the team a quality start the large majority of the time. Kyle Kendrick starts for the Phillies and I don't trust him at all. He has actually been worse at home than on the road. The Brewers lineup is a million times better now with Ryan Braun back in the lineup. Milwaukee has been good so far this year, and I think they could continue to surprise. The Phillies are still overrated by the oddsmakers from their past success. The Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 as an underdog. They are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of the series. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Milwaukee is 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 starts as an underdog. They are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts as a dog. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a righty. They are 0-4 in Kendrick's last 4 starts following a loss in their previous game. A 43-0 angle. Take Milwaukee big!
04-08-14	Baltimore Orioles v. New York Yankees OVER 8.5		14-5	Win	100	12 h 31 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Baltimore Orioles lineup is better than they have shown early this year. The New York Yankees lineup is the same way. Both of these teams are going to score more runs on average than they have so far this season. This gives us some value here on a game where we'd usually see a total of 9 or 9.5 with these starting pitchers. Day games at Yankee Stadium are good for high scoring contests, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 to 20 mph. Nova and Chen have both been shaky in Spring Training and in their first start. The over is 7-1 in Nova's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-1 in the Orioles last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 17-2 angle. Take the over.
04-07-14	Chicago White Sox v. Colorado Rockies -125		1-8	Win	100	19 h 11 m	Show
3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER The Chicago White Sox are a team I'm very low on this year. Chicago's starting rotation and bullpen are both weak. Chris Sale is elite, but behind him the White Sox rotation is poor. The bullpen is a total disaster. The White Sox added Jose Abreu to the lineup, but the majority of the lineup is very weak. Colorado's rotation isn't great, but they do have a very strong top five in their lineup. With Cuddyer, Gonzalez, and Tulowitzki the Rockies have a very good middle of the order. The Rockies is middle of the road, which is much better than the White Sox bullpen. Felipe Paulino had a poor spring and I don't trust him at Coors Field against a good lineup. Take Colorado.
04-07-14	Oakland A's v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8		8-3	Loss	-105	14 h 24 m	Show
4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION Scott Kazmir starts for the Oakland Athletics in this one. Kazmir had a brilliant first start to the season, and he has been awesome against the Twins in the past. How good? In 31 innings pitched against Minnesota last year Kazmir had an excellent 1.45 ERA. In two starts at Minnesota, he had a sparkling 0.75 ERA. Kevin Correia had a solid 3.3 ERA in home games last year, and the Athletics don't have a terrific offense. Both of these teams have a very good bullpen. I think this sets up well for an under play. The under is 6-1 in Correia's last 7 home starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a home underdog. Take the under.
04-06-14	Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays -105		3-0	Loss	-105	11 h 16 m	Show
3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH The Tampa Bay Rays are always very good at home. Alex Cobb is still underrated by most people. This is a guy who was exceptional in every way last year. He had a bad first start this year, but that makes me feel even more confident that he'll put forth a really good effort this time around. Tampa Bay's offense is sneaky good. The Rays have solid depth to their lineup. Yu Darvish is liable to be a bit off in his first start back from an injury, and the Rays can certainly take advantage of that. Texas' lineup has been disappointing so far this year. The Rangers will put up the runs at some point, but I don't like their chances of busting out of a slump against Cobb. Take Tampa Bay here.
04-06-14	Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5		1-2	Win	100	11 h 29 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The Atlanta Braves will start Alex Wood in this one, and Wood is a future star. Wood was terrific all through the minors. His only issue is his control, and that will be helped in a big way in this one by the fact that the home plate umpire is Doug Eddings. Eddings is the single best under umpire in the business because of his huge strike zone. He will give Wood some questionable strikes here. Taylor Jordan looked good in the spring and this Braves lineup isn't terribly strong from top to bottom. Both bullpens here are excellent. The under is 5-0 in Wood's last 5 following a quality start in the previous outing. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts after the team scores 5 runs or more. The under is 7-1 in his last 8 starts overall. A 16-1 angle. Take the under.
04-06-14	San Diego Padres v. Miami Marlins -120		4-2	Loss	-120	11 h 36 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Miami Marlins are a much improved team this year. Miami is probably the biggest surprise in the majors so far sitting at 5-1 through their first six games. Miami isn't going to be a division contender or anything, but I think there's plenty of value in them here. Ian Kennedy is regressing in a big way right now. A few years ago he was a top notch pitcher. Last year, he had an ERA of 4.24 despite pitching in the most pitcher friendly park in the National League. Nate Eovaldi's fastball is electric, and this Padres team isn't exactly loaded with guys who are great against fastballs. Miami's offense is better than most believe, and Giancarlo Stanton has crushed Kennedy in the past. The Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. Miami is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in the last game. They are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. San Diego is 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a right handed pitcher. The Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. The Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 games against Miami. The Marlins are 4-0 in Eovaldi's last 4 starts. A 40-0 angle. Take Miami.
04-05-14	Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -134		4-9	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Colorado Rockies send Jorge De La Rosa to the mound on Saturday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has absolutely mowed down this Arizona lineup in the past, especially when he faces them at Coors Field. De La Rosa has been a great story in the past couple years, and I've made a lot of money backing him. In nearly 100 career innings against Arizona, De La Rosa has an ERA of just 2.40. The Rockies are a different team at home, and they'll face Brandon McCarthy here. McCarthy is likely to struggle in this one, because he gives up too many fly balls. This is a huge pitching advantage for the Rockies. Colorado is a perfect 9-0 in De La Rosa's last 9 home starts vs. the Diamondbacks. The Rockies are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the NL West. Arizona is 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a left-handed starter. An 18-0 angle. Take Colorado.
04-05-14	Atlanta Braves +156 v. Washington Nationals		6-2	Win	156	17 h 15 m	Show
3 Star MLB Dog of the Day The Atlanta Braves have matched up very well in the past with the Washington Nationals. Washington is a team I like a lot this year, and I do think they'll win the NL East. Having said that, this play is all about a price. Atlanta should not be this big of an underdog with a very talented pitcher like Julio Teheran on the hill. Several Braves have actually hit Stephen Strasburg well. Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla have both had very good success recently against him. The Braves are 4-1 in Teheran's last 5 vs. the Nationals, and yet we still see more than +150 here. The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 games at Washington. Too big of a price to pass up. Take Atlanta.
04-05-14	Baltimore Orioles v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5		6-7	Win	105	11 h 50 m	Show
4 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Baltimore Orioles have hit Rick Porcello well in the past. Porcello has an ERA above 5 against the Orioles in his career. Porcello was torched in Spring Training as well. He had an ERA of 7.85 this spring. The Orioles do have some big bats in their lineup, and they are very capable of scoring runs in bunches. Detroit's lineup is tremendous and Bud Norris will have his hands full in this one. Detroit put up 10 runs yesterday. The wind will be blowing out at 15-20 mph in this one, and that is a big deal here too. This total is set awfully low for two good offenses and two shaky pitchers. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 2-0-2 in the Tigers last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 Saturday starts. The over is 7-1-2 in the Tigers last 10 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. A 24-1 angle. Take the over.
04-04-14	Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8		1-8	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The Texas Rangers have one of the best lineups in baseball. What pitcher would want to see a lineup with Choo, Andrus, Fielder, and Beltre in the first four spots? Jake Odrizzi is a decent young pitcher, but I expect him to struggle here. The Rangers lineup is going to put up a bunch of runs this season. Tampa Bay's offense is mediocre, but they'll be going against Joe Saunders. Saunders is a guy I like to fade, because I don't trust him. The price is too high to back the Rays here for me, but I'll play the over because I expect Tampa Bay to get to Saunders quite a bit here. Saunders was torched in Spring Training. The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 games on turf. The over is 3-0-1 4 meetings between these teams in Tampa Bay. The over is 5-1-1 in the Rays last 7 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. A 12-1 angle. Take the over.
04-04-14	Cincinnati Reds -109 v. New York Mets		3-4	Loss	-109	17 h 2 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Cincinnati Reds lost a couple very tough games to the St. Louis Cardinals in their season opening series. The Cardinals may have the best team in the National League. Playing the Mets is a massive step down in class. Mike Leake has an ERA under 1 at Citi Field. The Mets offense is very shaky, and Leake was good last season. Cincinnati's lineup isn't elite, but they are much better than the Mets. Joey Votto is one fire to the start the season, and Todd Frazier is hitting it very well too. The Reds have the edge in every aspect of the game here. The Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games at New York against the Mets. The Mets are 0-3 in their last 3 home games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. A 17-0 angle. Take the Reds.
04-04-14	Arizona Diamondbacks +127 v. Colorado Rockies		2-12	Loss	-100	14 h 20 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special Juan Nicasio has a career ERA of 8.05 in five starts against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Nicasio also has an ERA of over five at Coors Field. He pitches worse early in the year than he does later in the season. Having said all of this, he is still a significant favorite in this game. Colorado doesn't have a great lineup from top to bottom, and I think the Rockies will lose plenty of games this year. Randall Delgado has some good stuff, and the Diamondbacks are desperate for a win. Too big of a price on the Rockies here. I like the underdog at this number. Take Arizona.
04-03-14	Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's OVER 7.5		2-3	Loss	-105	20 h 22 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Seattle Mariners are showing off their much improved offense early this year. They aren't going to lead the league in runs scored or anything crazy, but this offense is clearly much better. Cano is a huge boost in the middle of the order, and Justin Smoak is finally realizing his potential. Seager and Ackley are also quality hitters in this lineup. Jesse Chavez hasn't started in the past, and I don't believe he can shut this lineup down. Seattle will start rookie Roenis Elias who hasn't pitched in a game above the Double A level in his career. He's clearly come too far too fast, and I expect that to show in this one. The Athletics lineup isn't power packed, but they are fundamentally sound hitters who will work the count and force him to make mistakes. The over is 5-0 in the Mariners last 5 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in the Athletics last 4 home games vs. a left handed starter. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 27-0 angle here. Take the over.
04-03-14	Washington Nationals v. New York Mets UNDER 7		8-2	Loss	-105	11 h 27 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The New York Mets are going to have trouble scoring runs this year. They put up a single run last night against the Nationals and Gio Gonzalez. The Nationals send out another elite pitcher here in Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann is a quality start machine, and now that he is completely healthy (unlike last year) I expect him to be even better than he has been in the past. Zach Wheeler starts here for the Mets, and he is trending upward pretty quickly. He has all the stuff to a very good pitcher for a long time. The under is 4-0 in the Nationals last 4 during game three of a series. The under is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 games with the total set at 7-8.5 runs. The under is 7-1 in the Mets last 8 games. A 17-1 angle. Take the under.
04-02-14	Seattle Mariners +131 v. Los Angeles Angels		8-2	Win	131	20 h 2 m	Show
3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT The Seattle Mariners have taken the first two games of the season from the Los Angeles Angels. It's definitely been a surprise to most, but I think this speaks volumes to the fact that this Angels team simply isn't all that great. They have a star in Mike Trout, but the rest of the team around him isn't that good. The Angels starting staff is mediocre, and the bullpen is less than average. Seattle is better than last year, and they'll start promising youngster James Paxton here. Hector Santiago starts for the Angels, and given his inconsistency I don't understand the Angels being a big favorite here. The Angels are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the AL West. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. A 17-1 angle. Take Seattle.
04-02-14	Philadelphia Phillies v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5	Top	3-4	Loss	-100	18 h 3 m	Show
5 Star MLB TOP Play Total The Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers lit it up for 24 runs in the first game of the series. Last night's game saw just 5 runs cross the plate. With Kyle Kendrick and Robbie Ross on the mound in this one, I expect this game to be another high scoring affair. Kendrick isn't a good pitcher, and he hasn't pitched in Texas before. This is a hitter's ballpark, and Kendrick gives up the long ball far too often. The wind is expected to be pushing the ball out to center field in this one, and that's perfect conditions for lots of runs based on past data from games played in this park. The Phillies still have some hitting stars, and Ross has to prove himself before I trust him in this park. Marvin Hudson is the umpire here, and he definitely has a small strike zone that will help the hitters. The over is 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 games behind the plate. The over is 7-0-1 in the Rangers last 8 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 as an underdog of +150 or higher. A 20-0 angle here. Take the over big!
04-02-14	Washington Nationals -138 v. New York Mets		5-1	Win	100	17 h 8 m	Show
3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR I think the Washington Nationals should be a -150 favorite in this one. Gio Gonzalez has proven himself to be an extremely consistent high level pitcher over the past couple years. Gonzalez has been superb at Citi Field in his career. In 40 career innings at Citi Field, he has an ERA of just 1.58. Bartolo Colon makes his Mets debut here and I doubt his ability to put together a season as good as last year's. Washington's offense should be much better this year than they were last season. The Nationals have a huge bullpen advantage here as well. The Nationals are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts against the Mets. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts against the Mets at Citi Field. The Nationals are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts as a road favorite. They are 7-1 in his last 8 Wednesday starts. A 24-1 angle. Take Washington.
04-02-14	St. Louis Cardinals -110 v. Cincinnati Reds		0-1	Loss	-110	17 h 8 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The St. Louis Cardinals may be the best team in the National League this year. St. Louis has a dominating arsenal of young pitchers, and Michael Wacha may be the best of the bunch. Wacha's domination of opposing hitters in the postseason last year was quite amazing considering it was his rookie year. In 10 innings, Wacha hasn't allowed a run against this Reds lineup. Tony Cingrani has an ERA above 4 against the Cardinals in his young career. Wacha is the better pitcher here, and the Cardinals lineup is significantly better than the Reds. St. Louis has the best lineup in the National League from top to bottom. The Reds are 0-7 in their last 7 games. They are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wacha's last 4 starts as a favorite. A 17-0 angle here. Take the Cardinals.
04-02-14	Minnesota Twins +127 v. Chicago White Sox		6-7	Loss	-100	12 h 8 m	Show
4 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Minnesota Twins will send Kevin Correia to the mound in this one. Correia is a rare pitcher who has better numbers on the road than at home in his career. He has pitched very well against the White Sox in his career. He has a 3.21 ERA in 28 innings against the team in his career. Felipe Paulino is coming back from a major surgery and he had an ERA over 6 in the Spring this year. The Twins and White Sox are probably the two worst teams in the AL Central this year, and I don't see a big difference between the two teams. There's too much value on the Twins here for me to pass up this play. Take Minnesota.
04-01-14	Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers -110		5-2	Loss	-110	17 h 20 m	Show
3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH Kyle Lohse has been underrated over the last couple years. Lohse has been able to put together some very good seasons in Milwaukee, and this year he'll have a better offense backing him. Ryan Braun makes a huge difference (obviously), and Aramis Ramirez is healthy right now as well. Jean Segura has turned into a very nice table setter for this team. Atlanta's offense is too inconsistent, and the Brewers are very tough to beat at Miller Park. Milwaukee's bullpen is one of the best in baseball now, and that's something to keep in mind moving forward. Atlanta may be a bit overvalued by the oddsmakers early in the season. I like the home team here. Milwaukee is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in the previous game. The Brewers are 5-0 in Lohse's last 5 starts vs. the NL East. Milwaukee is 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 Tuesday starts. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set between 7 and 8.5. They are 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 after the Brewers score 2 or less runs in the previous game. The Braves are 1-9 in their last 10 at Milwaukee. A 32-1 angle. Take Milwaukee.
04-01-14	Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8		5-2	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Atlanta Braves 2-0 on Opening day. Atlanta and Milwaukee both have good pitching staffs and terrific bullpens. I was surprised to see this total at 8 runs. Alex Wood has been amazing in Spring Training this year, and Wood is an up and coming star for the Braves staff. Kyle Lohse just keeps churning out quality starts for the Brewers, and this Braves offense is weak at the bottom of the order. Lohse pitched a complete game shutout in his only appearance against the Braves last year. The under is 7-0 in the Brewers last 7 as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 3-0-1 in Lohse's last 4 with the total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 31-0 angle. Take the under.
04-01-14	Colorado Rockies v. Miami Marlins OVER 7		3-4	Push	0	16 h 20 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO The Colorado Rockies have a good lineup. If you have Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the middle of the order, you are going to put up quite a few runs over the course of the season. Last night they were shut down by Jose Fernandez, who is an amazing young pitcher. Fernandez is going to shut down a ton of lineups this year. Nate Eovaldi is a huge step down from Fernandez, and I expect the Rockies offense to take advantage. Miami's offense is much improved this year, and Brett Anderson has been inconsistent in the Spring. This total is set too low at just 7 runs, so this is a value play. Take the over.
03-31-14	St. Louis Cardinals -114 v. Cincinnati Reds		1-0	Win	100	16 h 44 m	Show
3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH The St. Louis Cardinals are clearly the class of the NL Central again this year. Adam Wainwright is the second best pitcher in the National League. He struggled against the Reds in a big way last year, and I think he's out to prove that was a fluke in this one. Wainwright is too good of a pitcher to struggle against a mediocre lineup for too long. Johnny Cueto isn't completely healthy, and that's very dangerous when going against the Cardinals lineup. St. Louis has a tremendous lineup from top to bottom. There won't be many chances to get Wainwright at this short of a price this year. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 vs. the NL Central. The Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 games. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. The Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. Take St. Louis here.
03-31-14	Minnesota Twins v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7		3-5	Loss	-113	15 h 59 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO There are lots of factors that go into totals bets in Major League Baseball. One of them absolutely has to be the weather. The weather report in this one is a huge key. The wind is expected to be blowing in from right center field in Chicago at 20-25 mph during this game. This is normally a friendly park for home run hitters, but that shouldn't be the case on Monday. Chris Sale is very capable of mowing down the Twins below par lineup. Ricky Nolasco is a rare pitcher who has pitched better on the road than at home throughout his career in the big leagues. This number is low for a reason. Look for the offenses to have trouble getting started in this one. Take the under.
03-31-14	Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7		0-1	Win	100	13 h 39 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle Total The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates square off in an early start on Opening Day Monday afternoon. Jeff Samardzija goes for the Cubs and Francisco Liriano for the Pirates. Samardzija is a better pitcher than his statistics indicate from last year. He pitched with some bad luck in 2013. He has been exceptional against the Pirates in his career. He carries an amazing 0.73 ERA into this one in 9 career outings at PNC Park. Francisco Liriano has been outstanding for the Pirates, and he pitches very well at PNC Park. Neither of these lineups are very strong. The under is 5-0 in Samardzija's last 5 starts as an underdog. It is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on grass. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total of 7-8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a dog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs the NL Central. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 7-8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts at Pittsburgh. The under is 3-0-1 in the Cubs last 4 Monday games. A 35-0 angle. Take the under.
03-22-14	Los Angeles Dodgers -115 v. Arizona Diamondbacks		7-5	Win	100	5 h 45 m	Show
3 Star MLB Dodgers/DBacks CASH The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball this year. Seeing them as only a -115 favorite is enticing no matter who is on the mound, but with Ryu pitching for the Dodgers I like the play even more. Ryu had a great first year in the majors last year and I see no reason to expect a step backward this year. Trevor Cahill has nice numbers against the Dodgers in the past, but this Dodgers lineup is a whole different animal than they used to be. The Dodgers have Puig, Ramirez, Gonzalez and others and they should pile up the runs this year. Arizona has an elite hitter in Goldschmitt, but they don't surround him with enough talent in this lineup. I like the value on a very strong Dodgers team in this one. The Dodgers are 13-5 in Ryu's last 18 starts. Take the Dodgers.
10-26-13	Boston Red Sox v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7	Top	4-5	Win	100	31 h 56 m	Show
5 Star MLB TOP Play World Series Game of the Year The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals are all tied up at a game each. The Red Sox took Game One 8-1, but the Cardinals won 4-2 at Fenway in Game 2. Both teams started their top two pitchers in the first two games and the posted total was set at 7 in those games. Joe Kelly and Jake Peavy start Game 3, and the total is still set at 7. Kelly has been significantly worse at home than on the road this year, and he has never proven himself in the majors over the long run. He'll be up against a Boston Red Sox lineup that led the majors in runs scored this year. Peavy used to be a great pitcher, but his 4.17 ERA wasn't very impressive this year. He allowed 7 runs at Detroit in last outing, and he is up against a Cardinals lineup that averages 5.18 runs per game against right-handed pitching. These two lineups are very deep and a total of just 7 is too low here. Dana DeMuth is behind the plate in this one, and I rate him as a slight over umpire based on his small strike zone so that will help this play as well. The over is 9-1 in the Red Sox last 10 as a road favorite. The over is 6-1-1 in Kelly's last 8 starts. The over is 6-0-1 in Kelly's last 7 starts during game three of a series. I like the value on this one. Take the over in a big way!
10-19-13	Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -118		2-5	Win	100	43 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Tigers/Red Sox Game 6 CASH The Detroit Tigers wasted a ton of opportunities in Game 5, and now they head to Boston down 3-2. Max Scherzer will start in this one, and he has been great all year. Still, his history against the Red Sox isn't impressive. He has an ERA above 6 in his career against Boston. Clay Buchholz wasn't on his game in his last outing, but he has elite stuff and I like him to bounce back here. Miguel Cabrera isn't even close to 100 percent, and that hurts the Tigers in a big way. Boston has the better bullpen and healthier lineup. I like the Red Sox chances of finishing this series off in 6 games. Boston is 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 home starts against Detroit. The Red Sox are 29-6 in Buchholz's last 35 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Red Sox are 8-1 in Buchholz's last 9 starts on 5 days of rest. The Tigers are 1-4 in Scherzer's last 5 starts at Fenway. A 45-8 angle backs this play. Take Boston.
10-15-13	St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers -125		4-2	Loss	-125	8 h 40 m	Show
3 Star MLB Cardinals/Dodgers CASH The St. Louis Cardinals jumped out to a 2-0 lead in this series, but the Dodgers could have easily won the first two games of the series. Los Angeles bounced back with a big win last night, and I like their chances of evening up the series tonight. Ricky Nolasco hasn't pitched so far this postseason, but he has been great against the Cardinals the last couple years. In his last 24 innings pitched against St. Louis, Nolasco has allowed only one run. Lance Lynn pitches for the Cardinals, and he had an ERA above 5 on the road this year. Lynn didn't pitch well down the stretch. The Dodgers definitely need this game more than the Cardinals. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Lynn's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Lynn's last 4 Tuesday starts. They are 0-4 in their last 4 League Championship Series games on the road. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff home games. The Dodgers are 6-0 in Nolasco's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. In all, a 22-0 angle backs this one. Take the Dodgers.
10-13-13	Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -110		5-6	Win	100	19 h 45 m	Show
3 Star MLB Tigers/Red Sox Game 2 CASH The Detroit Tigers beat the Boston Red Sox yesterday at Fenway to take a 1-0 lead in the ALCS. Boston simply can't afford to fall behind 2-0 against a team as good as the Tigers, especially having played both games at home. Clay Buchholz has an ERA under 2 this year, and I think he is capable of outpitching Max Scherzer in this one. Scherzer actually has a poor 7.02 ERA in his career against Boston. The Red Sox have a deep lineup that makes pitchers work, and the Tigers bullpen is a weakness. Boston needs this game very badly, and at this price I have to back the Red Sox at home. Boston is 5-1 in Buchholz's last 6 starts against the Tigers. The Red Sox are 42-17 in their last 59 home games. Take Boston.
10-10-13	Detroit Tigers -116 v. Oakland A's		3-0	Win	100	41 h 3 m	Show
3 Star MLB Tigers/Athletics Game 5 Cash The Oakland Athletics chose to give the ball to Sonny Gray for Game Five of this series. Gray has only started 10 games in the big leagues, but he has been very good. A closer look at Gray tells us he didn't exactly dominate in the minors. Gray had a 3.60 ERA in AAA for the past year and a half. In early 2012, he had a 4.14 ERA in AA. It's a huge spot for Gray, and he's up against arguably the best lineup in baseball. On the other side is Justin Verlander. Verlander wasn't himself this year, but he still has some of the best stuff in baseball. He is the type of guy who can raise his level this time of the year. In his last three starts, he hasn't allowed a run. With the decided starting pitching edge and the decided lineup edge, I have to take the Tigers here. The A's are 0-5 in their last 5 games during Game 5 of a series. Detroit is 4-0 in their last Game 5 appearances. Take Detroit.
10-08-13	Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7.5		3-1	Loss	-100	18 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Red Sox/Rays 100% Angle Total The Boston Red Sox are first in baseball in runs scored per game. Boston is averaging 5.27 runs per contest. Tampa Bay is fighting for their lives in this one, and the Rays lineup has been pretty good of late. Jake Peavy has a 4.27 ERA this year and Jeremy Hellickson has a 5.27 ERA on the year. These guys haven't been pitching very well late in the year, and I think this total has been set far too low for two very talented offenses. None of the games in this series has been this low. Both of these pitchers are capable of giving up a big inning, and that could us close to the total right away. Too much value here to pass up. The over is 7-0 in Boston's last 7 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 against the AL East. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 against a right-handed starter. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 on turf. The over is 4-0-1 in the Rays last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 against the AL East. In all, a huge 43-0 angle backs this play. Take the over.
10-07-13	St. Louis Cardinals -116 v. Pittsburgh Pirates		2-1	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
3 Star MLB Cardinals/Pirates Moneyline CASH The Pittsburgh Pirates are just one win away from advancing, but that last step shouldn't be easy against a veteran team like the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have been here before and they won't be overwhelmed. Michael Wacha is one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, and I like his chances of performing well in this one. Charlie Morton is the Pirates least consistent starter, and he has an ERA of 6.36 in his career against the Cardinals. There is no doubt that the Cardinals have the better lineup of these two teams. The Pirates are 0-7 in Morton's last 7 starts against the Cardinals. The Pirates are 0-5 in Morton's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Take the Cardinals.
10-05-13	Tampa Bay Rays -115 v. Boston Red Sox		4-7	Loss	-115	22 h 44 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Tampa Bay Rays were embarrassed 12-2 on Friday by the Boston Red Sox. Tampa Bay is a veteran team that knows how to win games though, and they know they really need to avoid falling behind 0-2. David Price takes the mound for Tampa in this one, and he has been superb against Boston in his career. Price has a 1.88 career ERA at Fenway Park. He had a 2.48 ERA against the Red Sox in 5 starts against them this year. John Lackey had a 8.10 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay this year. Lackey has been inconsistent down the stretch. I trust Price much more, and I like Tampa Bay to keep this series close. The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They are 8-1 in their last 9 games against a right-handed starter. Take Tampa Bay.
10-02-13	Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5		4-0	Win	100	29 h 39 m	Show
3 Star MLB Rays/Indians Total Domination The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Indians will play Wednesday in the AL Wildcard game to decide who moves on in the playoffs. Star rookie Dane Salazar starts here for the Indians, while Alex Cobb starts for the Rays. Both of these teams have a lot of pitching options in this game, and I don't expect to see either manager let the starter give up many runs at all before switching to another strong arm if they get in any trouble. Cobb has been on fire of late. He has a 1.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has been the team's best starter this year. Salazar has a 3.12 ERA this year. Neither of these teams have a great offense from top to bottom. The under is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 playoff games as a favorite. The under is 10-1 in the Rays last 11 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 2-0-2 in the Indians last 4 home playoff games. Take the under.
09-27-13	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -128		4-1	Loss	-128	18 h 7 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are all set for a huge three-game series in Cincinnati. Whichever team wins 2 out of 3 games or more in this series will have home field advantage in the one-game playoff between these two next week. Both teams have a good starter going in game one of this series. A.J. Burnett has been good for Pittsburgh this year, but he has struggled a bit on the road. His road ERA is a mediocre 4.50. Homer Bailey has been great against the Pirates in his career, and Bailey has been very consistent of late. Bailey has a career ERA of just 2.69 in 15 starts against the Pirates. The Reds are 49-29 at home this year. This is a short price on Bailey and a desperate Reds team at home. The Pirates are 0-5 in Burnett's last 5 starts during game one of a series. The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning record. The Reds are 4-0 in Bailey's last 4 starts following a team loss in the previous game. The Reds are 4-0 in Bailey's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. In all, a 17-0 angle backs this play. Take the Reds.
09-25-13	Washington Nationals v. St. Louis Cardinals -128		1-4	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the rare teams in Major League Baseball right now that really need to win. The Cardinals are just two games ahead of the Pirates and three ahead of the Reds in the NL Central. They can't afford to slump down the stretch. They are playing their best baseball of the season of late. In this one, they are matched up against a Washington team that is now out of the playoff picture. Washington will be resting people and you have to believe they care very little about the results of this one. Shelby Miller has an ERA under 2 at home this year. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Miller's last 4 starts overall. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. St. Louis is 5-0 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. Washington is 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Nationals are 0-6 in their last 6 meetings with the Cardinals. In all, a 30-0 angle backs this play. Take the Cardinals.
09-24-13	Kansas City Royals v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7		0-4	Win	100	21 h 43 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of Day The Kansas City Royals are still battling to try to get into the final AL Wildcard spot. Seattle is limping to the finish of another season. Two lefties start in this one. Bruce Chen has been very good for the Royals this year. Seattle's offense has struggled against lefties all year, and Chen is the soft-throwing type of lefty that seems to bother the Mariners the most. James Paxton is a top pitching prospect for the Mariners, and he has been throwing the ball really well in his first few starts in the bigs. Bill Miller is the umpire here, and that's great news for the under. The under is 22-10 in his 32 games behind the plate this year. He calls 64.36% of pitches a strike (one of the highest percentages in the league). The under is 6-0 in the Mariners last 6 games against a left-handed starter. The under is 5-0 in Bruce Chen's last 5 starts on Tuesday. The under is 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts as a favorite. The under is 4-0-1 in Chen's last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in KC's last 4 road games against a team with a losing record. A 24-0 angle backs this play. Take the under.
09-22-13	San Francisco Giants v. New York Yankees UNDER 9		2-1	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total The San Francisco Giants offense has let them down all year. The pitching staff wasn't very good for most of the season, but they have improved over the past month or so. The Yankees lineup is certainly better than it was a few months ago, but the bottom of the order is still extremely weak. Petit is doing a good job for the Giants this year. Ironically, Andy Pettitte pitches for the Yankees in this one. Pettitte just announced he will retire after the year and this is a great chance for him to mow down a weak lineup in front of the home crowd. Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and he has the biggest strike zone in all of baseball. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 interleague road games. The under is 4-0-1 in the Giants last 5 following a game where they scored 2 runs or fewer. The under is 4-0-2 in the Giants last 6 following a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 with the total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in the Yankees last 5. The under is 5-0-1 in the Yankees last 6 as a favorite. The under is 3-0-1 in the Yankees last 4 against a righty. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in New York. In all, a 33-0 angle backs this play. Take the under.
09-21-13	Cincinnati Reds +105 v. Pittsburgh Pirates		2-4	Loss	-100	16 h 26 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Cincinnati Reds absolutely stole a game from the Pittsburgh Pirates last night. Pittsburgh was in control all game until the Reds rallied for 3 runs in the 9th to tie it. Cincinnati then won it in the 10th on a Joey Votto solo home run. That game had to be exhausting for the Pirates. These teams now have an identical 88-66 record coming into this matchup. Homer Bailey pitches for the Reds here, and he has dominated the Pirates in the past. He threw a no-hitter against them last September. Bailey has a 1.40 ERA at Pittsburgh in his career. A.J. Burnett has a 4.03 ERA in his career against the Reds. Burnett has been struggling of late, and Bailey has certainly been in better form. The Reds have the better lineup from top to bottom, and we are getting plus money. The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. Cincinnati is 5-0 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games. The Reds are 5-0 in Bailey's last 5 road starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The Pirates are 0-5 in Burnett's last 5 starts following a team loss in the previous game. The Reds are 6-0 in Bailey's last 6 starts in Pittsburgh. In all, a 33-0 angle backs this play. Take the Reds.
09-20-13	San Francisco Giants v. New York Yankees OVER 8		1-5	Loss	-120	17 h 41 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total Tim Lincecum and C.C. Sabathia used to be elite pitchers, but they aren't anymore. Lincecum and Sabathia both have ERA's well above 4 this year. In 2013, these guys have both been worse than the major league average. Sabathia has been even worse of late. Sabathia has allowed at least 5 runs in 5 of his last 10 games, and he hasn't allowed less than 3 runs in any of his last 13 starts. Yankee Stadium is still a hitter-friendly park, and this number is set too low with two below average starters on the mound. The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 home games against a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 Friday games. The over is 6-0 in Sabathia's last 6 starts as a favorite. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts at home. A 20-0 angle backs this play. Take the over.
09-19-13	Houston Astros v. Cleveland Indians -1.5	Top	1-2	Loss	-107	16 h 28 m	Show
5 Star MLB TOP Play of Day The Houston Astros are coming off a disappointing 6-5 loss in the 13th inning against the Cincinnati Reds. The Astros fought hard all game, but missed lots of opportunities. That game didn't end until about 1:30 AM EST. The Astros then headed to Cleveland for this series, so they definitely had a late night. Cleveland is coming off losing 2 of 3 at KC. The Indians are very much in the thick of the AL Wildcard race, but they have to take advantage of games against teams like the Houston Astros. Ubaldo Jimenez starts here for the Indians, and he has a 0.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. Here's a shocking tidbit for you, Jimenez has a better ERA since the break than Clayton Kershaw. Dallas Keuchel starts for the Astros, and Cleveland has rocked lefties all year long. Houston is 1-10 in their last 11 when Keuchel is starting on 5 days of rest. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. The Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 home games against a lefty. Take the Indians -1.5 big.
09-18-13	Cincinnati Reds v. Houston Astros OVER 9		6-5	Win	102	17 h 20 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The Cincinnati Reds put up 10 runs by themselves last night, and they are definitely capable of putting up another big number against the hapless Houston Astros in this one. In this one, Greg Reynolds will start for the Reds. Reynolds has a 5.66 ERA this year, and he is clearly the worst starting pitcher on the Reds roster right now. Houston should be able to put together a few runs. Brad Peacock starts for the Astros, and his minor league numbers tell me it will be a struggle for him for a while in the big leagues. Tim McClelland is behind the plate here. I would argue he is the single best 'over' umpire in the majors. McClelland consistently has the smallest strike zone in the majors. Both pitchers will get squeezed in this one. Take the over.
09-17-13	Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8		9-3	Loss	-114	19 h 50 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of Day The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet on Tuesday night and both teams will have great pitchers on the mound. The Dodgers are 17-4 in Greinke's last 21 starts. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 23-7 in Patrick Corbin's last 30 starts. I'm not going to take a side here, but I do like the under. Both of these pitchers have been great this season, and the Dodgers are short-handed offensively right now. Corbin has a great 2.27 ERA against LA in his career. Greinke shut out Arizona in his only start in Arizona earlier this year. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 road games. The under is 6-0 in Greinke's last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 7-0 in Greinke's last 7 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 6-0-1 in Greinke's last 7 against a team with a winning record. In all, a 27-0 angle backs this play. Take the under.
09-15-13	Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8		5-6	Loss	-105	14 h 45 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Cincinnati Reds are fighting to try to catch up to the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates. Cincinnati is also trying to stay ahead of the suddenly red hot Washington Nationals. Bronson Arroyo goes to the mound here for Cincinnati, and he has been a good pitcher for the Reds in key spots over the last few years. Arroyo has a 2.90 ERA at Miller Park during his career. Yovani Gallardo has shut down the Reds twice in the past month. Gallardo is healthy now, and he is pitching his best baseball of the year right now. The under is 5-0-1 in the Brewers last 6. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in Gallardo's last 4 starts as a home underdog. The under is 6-1-1 in the Reds last 8 games. Take the under.
09-15-13	Philadelphia Phillies v. Washington Nationals -1.5		2-11	Win	110	13 h 10 m	Show
3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH The Philadelphia Phillies have basically packed it up for the season. The Phillies have been a big disappointment this year, and they are playing short-handed right now. Washington is playing their best baseball of the year. The Nationals offense is finally hitting the ball like many expected they would all season. Washington has 7 of their last 8 games. Their loss last night hurt the team, and I expect them to bounce back with a great effort here. Tyler Cloyd isn't effective as a big league pitcher yet, and Jordan Zimmerman is a very high quality pitcher. The Nationals are 20-7 in Zimmeran's last 27 home games. The Phillies are 1-5 in Cloyd's last 6 starts. Take Washington -1.5.
09-14-13	San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves -1.5		1-2	Loss	-100	17 h 38 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of Day - The San Diego Padres managed to beat Atlanta on the road last night. The Braves are 51-21 at home this season, while the Padres 26-46 on the road. Atlanta is definitely in the playoffs, but they are still fighting to finish with the best record in the National League. Coming off a loss to the lowly Padres, I expect them to be very focused in this one. The Braves are 26-4 in Kris Medlen's last 30 starts against a team with a losing record. Don't expect the Padres to win two nights in a row. The Braves get their revenge here. Take Atlanta -1.5.
09-13-13	Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5		1-5	Win	100	20 h 41 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total The Cincinnati Reds really need some wins to keep pace with the Cardinals and Pirates in the NL Central. Mat Latos will be on the hill for the Reds in this one, and he has been their most consistent pitcher this year. Latos is 14-5 with a 3.02 ERA. In his career at Miller Park in Milwaukee he has a 3.20 ERA. Kyle Lohse has been on a bad team all year, but he has pitched very well. Lohse has 3.59 ERA overall this year, and his home ERA is 3.03. He has an ERA of just 1.8 in his last two years against the Reds. The under is 7-0 in Latos' last 7 starts following a quality start in his last outing. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a road favorite. The under is 6-0 in Milwaukee's last 6 against a righty. The under is 4-0 in the Brewers last 4 overall. In all, a 22-0 angle backs this play. Take the under.
09-13-13	Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers -131		9-8	Loss	-131	20 h 36 m	Show
4 Star MLB Play of Day The Texas Rangers come into this series with Oakland playing some bad baseball. Texas is a very good team, but they have been streaky this year. Texas realizes they have to turn it around right now. The Rangers are now 4 games out of first place in the AL West, and they don't want any part of the Wildcard. Derek Holland has been great against Oakland in his career. He has 2.83 ERA against the A's. Holland has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball the past two years. The A's are coming off an easy series in Minnesota, but things get much tougher here. The Rangers are 6-1 in Holland's last 7 starts against the Athletics. Oakland is 1-4 in Straily's last 5 as an underdog. Texas needs this game badly. I expect them to get it. Take the Rangers.
09-13-13	Philadelphia Phillies v. Washington Nationals -1.5		1-6	Win	100	19 h 46 m	Show
3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH Kyle Kendrick started the season pretty well for the Phillies, but it has been all downhill of late for Kendrick. He has a 4.51 ERA for the year, and in his career he has pitched poorly against Washington. Stephen Strasburg hasn't gotten much run support this year, but he has a superb 1.55 ERA at home. The Nationals offense has suddenly woke up over the past couple weeks. This team is clearly playing its best baseball of the year right now. The Phillies are without Domonic Brown and their lineup is a big question mark right now. This is a mismatch every way you look at it. Take Washington -1.5.
09-11-13	Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5		3-4	Win	100	14 h 6 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total DOMINATION The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants will finish off a three-game series on Wednesday in San Francisco. San Francisco's pitching staff disappointed for the majority of the season, but they have finally turned it around a bit of late. The Giants have been on a tremendous under run. Colorado isn't the same offense without Carlos Gonzalez. Leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler also has missed the last three games, and he may miss this contest. Juan Nicasio has a 2.89 ERA in his career against the Giants. Yusmeiro Petit almost threw a perfect game last time out, but he only threw 95 pitches. Petit has been great of late, and he loves pitching in this big ballpark. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4. The under is 4-0 in Nicasio's last 4 against a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0-3 in the Rockies last 9 as a road underdog. The under is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 home games against a righty. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 as a home favorite. The under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. In all, a 31-0 angle backs this play. Take the under.
09-10-13	Houston Astros v. Seattle Mariners OVER 8		13-2	Win	102	18 h 23 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of Day The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners both send pitchers to the mound in this one that are more than capable of giving up a bunch of runs. Jordan Lyles has a 5.08 ERA on the year. Joe Saunders has a 4.95 ERA on the year. Saunders started the year well, but to say that he has been bad of late is a major understatement. Saunders has given up at least 5 runs in 5 of his last 9 appearances. Seattle's Safeco Field isn't the big under ballpark that it once was. The over is actually 38-32-3 in the Mariners 73 home games this year. The over is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 against a team with a losing record. The over is 3-0-2 in Lyles' last 5 on 5 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in the Mariners last 5 against a right-handed starter. The over is 6-0 in Saunders' last 6 starts with a total between 7 and 8.5. The over is 5-0 in Saunders' last 5 home starts. A 23-0 angle backs this play. Take the over.
09-09-13	Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Miami Marlins		5-2	Win	105	17 h 59 m	Show
3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH The Atlanta Braves have lost four games in a row. Atlanta would like to get into the playoffs with the best record in the National League, but that is definitely still in doubt. The Braves need to get back on track, and this game provides them a terrific opportunity to do just that. Kris Medlen has been pitching really well of late, and he gets to go against the worst offense in the majors in the form of the Miami Marlins. In his career, Medlen has pitched 19 innings in Miami and he has allowed 0 earned runs! Henderson Alvarez has looked a bit tired of late, and he has a 5.82 ERA against Atlanta in his career. The Braves have much more to play for, and they are clearly the better team. The Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 as a home underdog. They are 0-4 in Alvarez's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. The Braves are 7-0 in Medlen's last 7 starts against Miami. Take Atlanta -1.5.
09-08-13	Los Angeles Dodgers v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7		2-3	Win	100	18 h 22 m	Show
3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total There's no doubt that Clayton Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. Homer Bailey has also elevated his game a lot this season. Bailey is pitching as well as ever in his last few starts. He has a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 outings, and he has been good at home all year. Kershaw has an impressive 2.81 ERA in his career against the Reds, and he has an ERA under 2 this season. This is the type of game that should have a lot of very quick innings with these elite pitchers on the mound. The under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these teams. The under is 3-0-1 in the Reds last 4 home games against a lefty. The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers last 7 road games against a team with a winning record. An 18-2 angle backs this play. Take the under.
09-07-13	Texas Rangers -121 v. Los Angeles Angels		3-8	Loss	-121	18 h 8 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of Day The Texas Rangers dropped a game in the AL West standings last night after losing 6-5 to the Angels. That was a big loss as it gave Oakland the lead once again in the AL West. The Rangers had won seven in a row against the Angels before last night. The Angels have been playing better of late, but this game means much more to the Rangers. Texas has Derek Holland on the mound here, and Holland has been very underrated this year. He has an ERA of 2.97 on the road this season. Garrett Richards pitches for the Angels here, and he has been very inconsistent. The Rangers are 6-0 in Holland's last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The Rangers are 5-0 in Holland's last 5 starts against the Angels. The Angels are 0-4 in Richards' last 4 starts against the Rangers. A 15-0 angle backs this play. Take Texas.

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