| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07-21 | Giants v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 9-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on the Giants/Brewers under 8* Two teams predicated on superb pitching enter game two of this contentious series between two NL elites. The Brewers took game 1, limiting the away-team Giants to only 1 run behind an exceptional 7 innings from Corbin Burnes. Now Milwaukee will send out their other ace in Brandon Woodruff ((2.26 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 131.1 innings). Woodruff needs little introduction. The 28 year old still boasts the best WHIP in baseball and owns an impressive 0.69 HR/9 innings rate, an 80.2% LOB rate, and xERA/FIP/xFIP marks all under 3.00. He's experienced a little regression in June and July but overall his command remains intact and he's terrific at preventing big slugs, something teams like San Francisco thrive off of (over the last 30 days the Giants are slugging .446 over and they're 2nd overall with 39 home-runs). Making a start in place of Anthony DeScalfani, Aaron Sanchez (2.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 33.1 innings) will take the mound for the Giants Saturday. Recently off the IL, Sanchez looked crisp in his first start Tuesday against Arizona, throwing for 3 scoreless innings and only permitting 1 hit. One bad game against the Rockies at Coors Field back in May has inflated some of his numbers but Sanchez has looked really good overall. His short season has displayed his ability, like Woodruff, to limit power-hitting lineups and keep runners on base. Both the Giants and Brewers have experienced an offensive explosion the last few weeks but lately they're bats have cooled off. The under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. I expect another pitcher's duel tonight-- take the under. |
|||||||
| 08-06-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Pick - Red Sox/Blue Jays under* Toronto's Alek Manoah (3-1, 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 47.1 innings) is really starting to impress. The 6'6" 23 year old seems to be gaining more command with every opportunity, permitting 2 runs or less in 6 out of his 9 starts, and against good offenses. The last time he rivaled Boston, he held the Red Sox to 4 hits and 1 run over 6 innings at Fenway. Toronto still lost 2-1, so he'll look for some redemption today. Manoah could do a better job at preventing home-runs (1.33/9 innings), but his 3.07 xERA and 84.6% LOB rate are signs that he's a stable pitcher and potential ace. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi (9-6, 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 121.1 innings) Friday. Eovaldi got whacked in his last start at Tampa but that means he should see some positive regression today. Eovaldi has allowed more than 5 runs only 4 times this season. After every one of those flops, he either held the opponent scoreless or permitted just 1 run in his next start. I expect Eovaldi, who's been at that consistent 3-4 ERA mark all year, to show his full potential tonight. And Boston needs it. The Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 7 games, while the Blue Jays have won 6 of their last 7. Over Boston's last 11 games, 8 of those have gone under 10 runs. The under is 15-5-1 in Red Sox last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter and 7-1-1 in the Blue Jays last 9 games as a favorite. We're betting that two strong offenses are limited again tonight. Take the under.
|
|||||||
| 08-05-21 | Mariners v. Yankees -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on the Yankees -1.5* The Yankees are finally starting to look like the dangerous and talent-heavy playoff team they're built to be. Winners of 6 of their last 7 games (5 of which were by 2 runs or more), New York is finally starting to gain some traction as they look to overtake the AL East. The Seattle Mariners come into today's matchup still in the postseason race but the reality is rather grim. They're last in MLB in batting average and their rotation is weak. Now they find themselves in the Bronx against a surging Yankees squad. To make matters more challenging, they'll start Tyler Anderson (4.39 ERA, 4.28 FIP, over 108.2 innings). The journeyman who started the 2021 season with Pittsburgh faces a more nerve-racking role in Seattle with a team still in contention. A road game against a rallying NYY team won't make that any easier. I don't like Anderson's pedestrian velocity or his awful HR allowance (2.07 HR/9 innings) against a power-hitting Yankees lineup. Nestor Cortes (1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over 32.2 innings) gets his second start today for NYY. He looked really good in his first start against Tampa, allowing only 1 run and 3 hits in 5 innings. Previously a reliever, Cortes has the skill and dynamism to have real success as part of the NYY rotation. Both teams are suffering from some injuries but it hasn't seemed to bother the Yankees, especially with new additions Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo holding up their bats. New York is 6-1 in their last 7 home games. |
|||||||
| 08-04-21 | Braves -103 v. Cardinals | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play on the Braves ML* JA Happ (STL: 5-6, 6.77 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 77 strikeouts) hasn't had a great 2 years. Once his hopes rested on a second chance with the Yankees in 2020, only to be released at the start of this season and now traded to St. Louis at the halfway point. A low LOB rate, a high homerun rate, and a floundering xERA (5.78) give us plenty of reasons to fade the journeyman. With a team ERA of 4.24 and a team FIP of 4.42 this season (which are both rated in the lower half of the league), the Cardinals haven't had a dependable rotation like they're used to. I don't see that resurrecting today. Although he doesn't always have the best numbers, the Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 games with Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.40 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 83 strikeouts) on the mound. They're also only 2.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East, so there should be no lack of motivation in this spot. Atlanta is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in St. Louis and I expect them to take it to the Cardinals again today. Take the Braves.
|
|||||||
| 08-04-21 | Mets v. Marlins +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on the Marlins +1.5 (-125)* This is another good spot for Miami and unfortunately another bad one for the Mets, who are quickly losing their grip on the NL East. Carlos Carrasco had a solid 4 innings with New York in his first showing on the mound last week, but the 34 year old is likely still working through the kinks of his game and should be on a pitch count. Meanwhile, Miami is starting Zach Thompson (2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over 38.2 innings), who has been sensational in his short season. Thompson has also shown excellent command, limiting big slugs (0.70 HR/9 innings) and maintaining an LOB rate over 75%. With his dynamic ability to strikeout batters, his numbers show he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball since his debut. Miami is at home and the Mets can’t seem to solve their puzzle, losing 4 straight to the team from South Beach. Take the Marlins to keep this close. Take Miami +1.5. |
|||||||
| 08-03-21 | Astros v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Pick Dodgers -1.5* Walker Buehler (11-1, 2.19 ERA, 0.90 WHIP over 135.2 innings) has been absolutely lights out for awhile now. After a strong start in April and May, his last 2 months have been silly, posting a 1.85 ERA in June and a 1.67 ERA in July. Over that same 2 month span in 6 games at home (37.3 innings), Buehler has only permitted 8 runs. Since the Dodgers' ace is human, these numbers probably won't last forever, but right now I don't see any sell-signs on Buehler. He's locked in and he's needed: LAD is still 3.5 games back of first place in the NL West. Houston will start Lance McCullers (8-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 97.2 innings) Tuesday. He's been generally very good this year but lately he's regressed a little, as his 3.86 ERA in July indicates. The Astros are on the tail end of a long road trip that continues into this 2-game series against the champions, while the Dodgers begin a nice week-long stay-cation Tuesday. The Dodgers are 41-15 in their last 56 games following an off day and 60-20 in their last 80 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|
|||||||
| 08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 9 | 8-2 | Win | 104 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Mariners/Rays over 9* The Mariners' pitching and defense is an issue. Allowing 30 runs over their last 5 games and ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories (69.7% LOB rate, 42.5% GB rate, 4.54 ERA), it's hard to like their chances against anyone right now. Seattle's Chris Flexen (3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 108.2 innings) certainly doesn't have the worst numbers. He's a solid pitcher who can often guide his team to wins and his 9-5 record on the season proves as much. But when Flexen struggles he really struggles, and those challenges often come when he's pitching on the road. Flexen held the Angels to only 1 run over 6 innings in his last away start at LAA, but in 4 previous away starts he permitted 33 hits and 18 runs in just 18.3 innings. Michael Wacha (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 71.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa, who's far from their best arm, although the month of July served him better. He held onto a 3.60 ERA over 20 innings, allowing more than 3 runs in only one of those contests. Still, Wacha's profile isn't very promising-- his sinking LOB rate, lack of command in preventing home runs (1.77/9 innings), and his 5.67 xERA indicate his disappointing first year with the Rays. They also have me wondering if he's due for some negative regression. Both offenses are at an advantage today. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 08-01-21 | Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Royals/Blue Jays under 9.5* The Toronto offense is always capable of having huge games but this total feels inflated. Kansas City's Brad Keller (5.55 ERA/1.67 WHIP/108.2 innings) capped off a great month with an exceptional performance against the White Sox, allowing only 1 run in 7 innings. He also boasted a 2.28 ERA in July over 27.2 innings. In the past he's struggled against Toronto (5.49 ERA in 19.2 career innings), but he'll need to play with confidence today if the Royals, who have only averaged 3 runs per game in their last 5 contests, have a shot at beating the surging Blue Jays back in Canada. Long-time Twins ace Jose Berrios (3.48 ERA/3.57 FIP/9.32 Ks/9 innings) gets his first start for the home town Jays and one has to believe he'll be highly motivated. Berrios has been ultra consistent this year, allowing more than 3 earned runs in only 5 starts. The under is 10-1 in Royals last 11 vs. a team with a winning record and 8-0 in KC's last 8 games as an underdog. Take the under here.
|
|||||||
| 07-31-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Braves | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Brewers aren't always the most explosive offense in MLB but lately their hitters are really showing up, offering a .355 wOBA and 2.89 batting average over the last 2 weeks, both of which are top 5 in the majors (their batting average is actually 1st over that span). They're also starting Brandon Woodruff (2.14 ERA, 0.84 WHIP over 126 innings) on Saturday, who still owns the best WHIP in baseball and has an impressive 80.1% LOB rate, permitting just 0.64 HR/9 innings and boasting an exceptional 2.60 FIP. The home team Braves will start Kyle Muller (2.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 24.2 innings), who I actually think shows some real promise. Muller has a big frame and a strong arm and he can provide a ton of strikeouts, but he's young and inexperienced and his proclivity to allow walks (4.74 BB/9 innings) will be a real problem against the opportunistic Brewers. Woodruff's last start was disappointing after 7 innings, allowing 3 runs in a loss to the White Sox, so I expect him to come out stronger today. Milwaukee is approaching the plate with so much confidence right now and the away team has the more experienced and savvy arm. I expect Milwaukee to gain an early lead and Woodruff to control the game from there. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
|
|||||||
| 07-29-21 | Reds -118 v. Cubs | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Luis Castillo started the season pitching terribly, but he has righted the ship in a big way of late. Castillo has a 1.71 ERA and a 2.93 FIP since the start of June. He faces a Cubs lineup without Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo today. The Cubs are in a state of flux. There are certainly going to be some deals made to get rid of some Cubs players very soon. That is never a great situation to be in. Joey Votto is absolutely raking of late. He has 7 home runs in the last five games. The Reds offense overall is hitting it well with Jesse Winker and Kyle Farmer swinging it very well also. Cincinnati upgraded their bullpen a lot this week and that was their single biggest weakness. They now have a better bullpen than the Cubs. Take Cincinnati. |
|||||||
| 07-28-21 | A's v. Padres UNDER 8 | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres host the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday afternoon. Blake Snell starts for San Diego while Sean Manaea is on the hill for the A's. It's a battle of lefties and that is important for totals bettors here. San Diego ranks 9th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. They rank 17th in the majors against left handed pitching. Oakland ranks 14th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The A's rank 21st in wOBA against left handed pitching. Both Snell and Manaea are quality lefties. These two can have some trouble with walks at times, but with Ryan Blakney as the home plate umpire that is a positive. He is one of the better under umpires in baseball. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio is excellent for under bettors. These get away day games often have a key batter or two missing from the lineup for a day off. Both of these bullpens are very high quality as well. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 07-27-21 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 10 | 6-4 | Push | 0 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) over the last 30 days. Washington ranks first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitchers. They are up against Matt Moore who is clearly a subpar left handed pitcher. Moore has a 5.79 ERA and a 5.68 FIP this year. He has had a 5.52 ERA or higher in his last three seasons in the majors. Not good. Erick Fedde starts for Washington and his ERA is 8.71 in his last five starts. His FIP during that time is 5.96 as well. He is struggling with control in that time (5.23 walks per nine innings). The Phillies have a solid lineup and they have been better at home offensively. A game time temperature of 88 degrees with light winds blowing out at about 6 mph is another plus. Both bullpens have been a mess for much of the season. There should be plenty of base runners throughout this game. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 07-25-21 | White Sox v. Brewers -132 | 3-1 | Loss | -132 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have won the first two games of this series. I understand that can make some bettors cautious about wagering on them in game three when they are playing another good team. In this case though, I'm going to lay the price with Milwaukee. The Chicago White Sox aren't even close to full strength right now. The White Sox are at .500 on the season on the road, and they are without many key guys in the lineup. The bullpen is shorthanded right now as well, and in the last month this bullpen has actually been a bottom six unit in the majors. The Milwaukee Brewers start Brandon Woodruff here. Woodruff has been underrated for too long now. Woodruff is so consistently very good. Woodruff has a 2.04 ERA and a 2.68 xERA. His FIP is 2.70. Woodruff is only allowing 25.3% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit. Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox. He's certainly a very good starter too. He isn't quite on Woodruff's level though. Lynn has a 1.94 ERA, but his FIP is 3.28. Lynn has a 100% left on base percentage in 6 of his last 9 games. That is definitely fortunate and it will be hard to keep that up. The Brewers strong back of the bullpen is well rested. Take Milwaukee. |
|||||||
| 07-24-21 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The San Francisco Giants have been tremendous this year when it comes to bouncing back from losses. The Giants were upset by the Pirates in game one of this series. Pittsburgh has been terrible on the road this year. The Pirates were actually swept by Arizona in the series before this, and they were beaten by a score of 21-12 in that series. The Giants start Kevin Gausman here. Gausman has allowed more than 2 runs in only two starts this year. Gausman's splitter has been as nasty as ever. He has held this Pirates lineup to a very low .274 wOBA in his career. Will Crowe has a FIP of 6 or higher in 6 of his last 9 starts. He hasn't completed 6 innings in any of his last 10 starts. The Pirates bullpen has been worn out of late. The Giants are 38-14 in their last 52 as a home favorite. The Pirates are 22-63 in their last 85 road games. Take San Francisco -1.5. |
|||||||
| 07-23-21 | Tigers +114 v. Royals | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have won 7 straight games. The oddsmakers haven't quite caught on to their improvement fully just yet. Detroit has a lot of good young players who are really coming into their own. Detroit struggled badly with left handed pitching in the first month of the season, but they rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties since that time. Detroit was excellent against lefties last year, and it is once again looking like a strength of this lineup. Kris Bubic is a lefty who has been crushed in 3 of his last 4 outings. Bubic is walking nearly 5 batters per nine innings, and that hurts a lot against big league hitters. He also has a 5.03 ERA and a 5.85 FIP. His xERA is 5.86 as well. If anything, Bubic has been lucky this year. Wily Peralta is no great pitcher by any means, but he does have a solid 3.58 xERA on the season. The Royals lineup isn't very good against right handed pitching. The Royals are 15-36 in their last 51 vs. a right handed starter. The Royals are 10-29 in their last 39 games overall. I have to fade a favorite like Kansas City against a team playing well. Take Detroit. |
|||||||
| 07-22-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -130 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have won 6 games in a row. More importantly to me though, this Detroit team is 37-27 since May 8. This isn't a total fluke that Detroit is getting better. The Tigers have some young talent that is coming of age. This is a team that is still playing very hard as well. Texas is going the opposite direction and quickly. The Rangers are winless in their games since the All Star Break. They have lost by a combined score of 47-5 in their games since the break. That's hard to believe, but it is true. Texas ranks dead last in wOBA in the past two weeks and this team is just a mess right now. Mike Foltynewicz comes into this game in terrible form. Foltynewicz allowed 10 runs in 1 and 2/3 innings in his last start. He has a 5.91 ERA and a 6.14 FIP on the season. Tyler Alexander has a decent 4.40 ERA and a 4.36 FIP this year. The Tigers bullpen has been much better in recent weeks as well. Texas is a ridiculous 16-55 in their last 71 road games. They are 17-43 in their last 60 games overall. The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games. Take Detroit. |
|||||||
| 07-21-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -118 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers started the season slowly, but they have played at above .500 since after their first month. This is a young team that does have a bright future. Detroit is playing like a team that really wants to win right now. I can't say the same about the Texas Rangers. Texas has been outscored by 40 runs since the All Star Break. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games overall. Texas is 16-54 in their last 70 road games. The Rangers are a mess right now. Texas is about to deal a couple of their better players as well. The Rangers send Jordan Lyles to the mound and he has been really bad all year. Lyles has allowed a really high 42.2% hard hit rate. Detroit is 11th in the majors in wOBA since the first month of the season. The Tigers offense has actually been pretty good of late. The Rangers are 30th in wOBA since the first month of the season. Teams headed in totally different directions. Take Detroit. |
|||||||
| 07-20-21 | Orioles v. Rays UNDER 8 | 3-9 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles rank 26th in the majors in wOBA on the road this year. The Tampa Bay Rays rank 20th in wOBA at home this year. Brian O'Nora is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently been a very solid under umpire. He has above average strikes called and strikeout/walk percentages. John Means returns for the Orioles here. Tampa Bay has a bottom five offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Means is clearly an above average left handed pitcher. Tampa Bay has multiple injuries in their lineup right now as well. Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays. The Orioles crushed left handed pitching earlier this year, but they have cooled off dramatically against lefties in the past month. Tampa Bay has a strong bullpen with good depth behind McClanhan as well. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 07-18-21 | Twins v. Tigers +124 | 0-7 | Win | 124 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Minnesota Twins are a mess. Minnesota has a ton of injuries and the Twins have been arguably the biggest disappointment in all of baseball this year. Detroit started the season very slowly, but quietly the Tigers have a record over .500 if you exclude the first month of the season. The Tigers crushed left handed pitching last year. They started slow against lefties this year, but they have been hitting lefties hard in the last couple months. J.A. Happ has an ERA of 8.00 in his last 11 starts. Happ is allowing a whopping 2.5 home runs per nine innings in that time. In 7 of those 11 starts he has allowed 4 runs or more. In 8 of those 11 starts he has gone 5 innings or less. Happ has been really bad of late. Wily Peralta is far from a great starter, but he has a nice 2.08 ERA and a 3.44 xERA in 26 innings this year. The Twins are 17-27 on the road this year. Minnesota is 1-7 in their last 8 road games. The Tigers are 23-22 at home on the season. I'll grab the plus money price. Take Detroit. |
|||||||
| 07-10-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) at home. They have a .283 wOBA at home this year. They are up against Patrick Sandoval here. Sandoval struggled quite a bit early on in the majors, but he was a highly touted prospect and he has pitched much better of late. Sandoval has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 16.8% so far this year. Chris Flexen has been great at home this year. Flexen starts for the Mariners here. Flexen has a 1.99 ERA in 54 and 1/3 innings at home this year. He has a ridiculous .240 wOBA allowed. This is a pitcher's park and Flexen has taken advantage. While the Angels usually have a good offense, they are without both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon right now. Kerwin Danley has been a good under umpire through the years and this is a fairly high total for a game in Seattle. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 07-09-21 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds rank as a top five offense against right handed pitching. They also rank as a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. They are up against a lefty in Eric Lauer here. Wade Miley starts for the Reds, and he has been solid this year. Miley has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.24 FIP on the season. He has a tremendous .244 wOBA allowed on the road this season. The Brewers offenses is middle of the road against lefties. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire in the majors in the past five years. Eddings has an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He is a clear positive for under bettors. The under is 34-16-2 in the Brewers last 52 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. an NL Central foe. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 07-09-21 | White Sox -130 v. Orioles | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox have been consistently very good this year. Chicago ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA in the past 14 days. The White Sox are noted as being excellent against lefties, but they have been hitting everyone lately. Chicago also has a strong bullpen. Baltimore does hit left handers much better than right handers. That is the primary reason why this line is relatively cheap on the White Sox. Still, Baltimore has been terrible in the past couple months after starting the season playing fairly competitively. The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games overall. Baltimore is 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. The White Sox are 40-14 in their last 54 as a favorite. Dallas Keuchel isn't the star he was in the past, but he is still a bit better pitcher than Jorge Lopez. The Orioles bullpen has bottom ten numbers in the majors in the past 60 days after starting the season well. This is too low of a price on the White Sox. Take Chicago. |
|||||||
| 07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Jordan Montgomery starts for the Yankees here. Montgomery has been good at home throughout his career. Montgomery has a 3.36 ERA and a 0.278 wOBA when pitching at home. In his career on the road, he has a 5.10 ERA and a 0.331 wOBA allowed. The Seattle offense isn't particularly good, but they have improved quite a bit in the past month. The Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this season. There are too many solid hitters in this lineup for them to struggle all season long. They have shown signs of improved in the last few games. Logan Gilbert starts for Seattle in this one. Gilbert has a 5.63 ERA at home so far this season. Both starting pitchers are capable of giving up a fairly big number here. I see two offenses improving, and with this low total, I like the chances for this to go over the total. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 07-06-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Pablo Lopez is a good pitcher, but I don't think he is quite as good as his numbers look so far this year. Lopez has major splits from the beginning of the season to the end of the season in his career. He is strong in the first two or three months of the year, and then he really falls off a lot from July through the end of the year. In fact, his ERA is over 6 in his career in July. Lopez is up against a Dodgers lineup that has been hitting the ball well. They are averaging 6 runs per game in their last five games. The Dodgers sat out Bellinger, Muncy, and Betts last night. That means we should get the best guys in the lineup on Tuesday night. Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers here. While he has been pretty good, he doesn't pitch very deep into games and the Dodgers middle relief is their biggest weakness. Miami does have some power in the middle of the order and they should get some chances here. Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire here. Torres has one of the five lowest strikes called percentages in the majors in the past two years. His strikeout/walk ratio also shows he is a tough umpire for the pitchers. He has a small strike zone. This number is awfully low for a hot Dodgers offense being involved. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 07-04-21 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 9 | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies start Vince Velasquez here. Velasquez is a below average right handed starter. He has always had drastic splits in day/night games. Velasquez has a career ERA of an ugly 5.40 in day games. His ERA last year in day games was 8.10 and this year it is 7.23. Velasquez gives up too many home runs and the ball can fly really well in Philly on warm days. Blake Snell has a 10.36 ERA on the road this year. That is 33 runs allowed in less than 29 innings. Opponents have a ridiculous .442 OBP against him on the road. He clearly isn't that bad, but Snell has struggled away from pitcher friendly San Diego. Snell faces a Philly offense that ranks 10th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. The San Diego Padres rank 5th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Padres have a deep lineup and they have plenty of power in the middle of the order. If Velasquez gets out of this game early, the Phillies certainly have bullpen issues as well which can lead to a big number. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 07-03-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Both starting pitchers here are capable of getting blasted. Jordan Lyles has typically started season pretty well and fallen apart in the hot summer months. Lyles has a career ERA of a whopping 6.18 in July. Lyles has been struggling all season this year, and his ERA of 5.12 and FIP of 5.07 show exactly that. Marco Gonzales has a 5.10 ERA this year. His FIP is 5.32 and his xERA is a ridiculous 8.47. Gonzales is struggling with his control a lot more this year again (it was excellent last year after being a problem in the past). Texas and Seattle have both swung the bat well of late. Texas has scored 4 runs or more in 9 of their last 11 games. The Rangers have scores 6 or more in 5 of those 11 games. Seattle has scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 13 games. Sean Barber is the home plate umpire here and my umpire database shows that his strikes called percentage and his strikeout/walk ratios continue to be on the very low side. Barber looks like a solid over umpire in the last couple years. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 07-02-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Indians | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Houston -1.5* The Houston Astros have been a strange team this year. They are clearly a very talented team. They have struggled with bad teams. They were swept at home by the Detroit Tigers earlier this year. They were swept at home recently by the Baltimore Orioles. Houston is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. The Astros are the top ranked team in the league in weighted on base average (wOBA) against left handed pitching. They are up against a weak left hander in Sam Hentges here. Hentges has a 7.32 ERA and a 6.81 xERA. Hentges has started six games. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 3 and 1/3 innings or less in four of those six starts. Lance McCullers Jr. has a solid 2.94 ERA and a 3.70 xERA on the season. He is doing a nice job limiting hard contact this year. He strikes out 9.76 batters per nine innings as well. The Indians offense is a bottom six or eight offense in the majors. They start their worst starting pitcher in this game as well. Houston is elite against lefties. Take Houston -1.5. |
|||||||
| 06-30-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* David Rackley is the home plate umpire for this game. The over is a whopping 122-92 in his games behind home plate (57% all time). He has a much smaller strike zone than the average umpire. Justus Sheffield has been known to struggle to find the plate at times. Sheffield can usually pitch fairly well at home, but his road numbers aren't good at all. He comes into this one throwing the ball poorly of late. Steven Matz is inconsistent and he is coming off the COVID list for this game. He is expected to be on a 60 pitch or so pitch count. Seattle has hit the ball much better of late (top 10 offense in the last two weeks). The Blue Jays have been one of the best offenses in baseball this year. Sahlen Field is a tremendous hitters park. The Blue Jays have scored 9 runs or more in three of their last five games. They haven't scored less than five runs in any of those games. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 06-30-21 | Rays v. Nationals OVER 10 | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Jon Lester here. Lester is far past his prime and he has been hurt by the home run in recent years. Michael Wacha is expected to start for Tampa Bay. Wacha is wildly inconsistent and this Washington offense has been heating up of late. The temperature for this game is expected to be 92 degrees with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Day games with that kind of hot weather and wind blowing out have been very good over bets in the past. Tampa Bay struggles to score at home, but on the road they are a top 10 offense in baseball. Washington has gotten quite the contribution from Kyle Schwarber of late. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Fenway Park has shown a strong tendency to have high scoring games in warm weather with the wind blowing out. The over is 105-73 in the last 178 games with a temperature over 70 degrees and winds blowing out at 6 mph or more. Game time temperature here of 83 degrees with winds blowing out at 8 mph certainly help the case for the over. Brad Keller has been terrible all season. Keller has a 6.39 ERA and a 6.88 xERA this year. He has allowed a ridiculous 45.9% of batted balls this year to be classified as hard hit according to Fangraphs. He isn't fooling anyone. Boston's offense is a top ten offense and they should get to him here. Nick Pivetta has drastically worse numbers pitching at Fenway compared to on the road this year. Pivetta struggles with the home run ball and Fenway in warm weather definitely plays small. The Royals do have enough power to do some damage here. Both bullpens have thrown a lot of innings of late. The fatigue factor here is high. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 06-27-21 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 9 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Over* Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez is striking out only 5.15 batters per nine innings. He gives up a lot of long ball and is prone to allowing big innings. It would be easy to assume Gonzalez is just a victim of Coors Field, but that isn't the case. Gonzalez's road numbers have actually been worse than his numbers at home. His career road numbers are a 5.79 ERA and a .343 wOBA allowed. What about this year? Gonzalez has a road ERA of 7.59 and a WOBA allowed of a whopping .404. Eric Lauer isn't a very good lefty. While the Rockies can't right handed pitching, they are pretty good against lefties. Lauer has very poor historic numbers against the Rockies as well. Colorado's lineup has an amazing .516 wOBA against him in 73 at bats. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon have both crushed him in the past. Both pitchers are more than capable of giving up a big number. In Gonzalez's last 10 games, eight of the ten games have had a total of 12 runs scored in them. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 06-26-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -122 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* The San Diego Padres are laying a pretty big price on the run line here. This is something that I rarely lay, but I think there is good reason for the Padres to be massive favorites here. Arizona is 1-20 in their last 21 games. If you had bet the other team on the -1.5 run line in each of Arizona's last 21 games, you would have gone 14-7. San Diego is one of the best teams in the National League. Dinelson Lamet is a very good right handed starting pitcher. Lamet has a 2.81 ERA and a 2.78 FIP. He has been sharp in his recent starts. In limited action, Arizona's lineup has a .122 batting average against him. Merrill Kelly has struggled badly against San Diego. Fernando Tatis Jr. is as hot as anyone in baseball, and Tatis Jr. has 3 home runs off Kelly in just 15 at bats. The Padres lineup overall has a .335 wOBA against Kelly. Arizona has a bottom five bullpen in baseball. San Diego has a top five bullpen in baseball. This one is a mismatch. Take San Diego -1.5. |
|||||||
| 06-25-21 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Milwaukee -1.5* The Milwaukee Brewers start Corbin Burnes here. Burnes has a 2.62 ERA and a ridiculous 1.13 FIP on the season. Burnes has 12 walks and 108 strikeouts. He has an amazing 17.6% swinging strike rate. Colorado ranks last in the majors in every major offensive category when they are playing on the road. The Rockies have a team weighted on base average of .255. No other team in the majors has a road wOBA of worse than .276. Colorado's offense is just awful on the road. They are now up against a tremendous starter in Burnes. Jon Gray returns from the injured list to start for the Rockies. Gray can be a solid pitcher, but he's coming back from an injury and only managed 62 pitches in his final rehab start. He's expected to be on a pitch count here. The Rockies bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in baseball, and they'll likely be in the game for quite a while here. This one is a mismatch and I'll take the run line. Take Milwaukee -1.5. |
|||||||
| 06-23-21 | Rockies v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* Which team is worst in the majors in offense on the road this year? The answer is the Colorado Rockies, and it isn't even close. Colorado has an overall team weighted on base average on the road of .254. The second worst team on the road is Pittsburgh at .276. Wow. The Rockies lineup is extremely weak this year and they have banged up quite a bit as well. Seattle is clearly a pitchers park. Seattle ranks second last in the majors in wOBA at home this year. The Mariners have won a lot of low scoring on their home field. German Marquez is the Rockies ace and he has five great starts in his last six starts. Justus Sheffield has been much better at home than on the road in his career. This is a get away day game and that is a plus for the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 06-23-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff is very underrated. He's coming off a subpar start at Coors Field, but nearly everyone struggles at Coors Field. Even with that bad start at Coors Field, Woodruff has a stunning 1.59 ERA and a .170 weighted on base average away from home this year. In his career, his numbers are much better on the road than at home. He'll be at Chase Field (with the roof closed) on Wednesday afternoon. Carson Kelly is out with an injury for Arizona and Ketel Marte left last night's game with an injury and is questionable here. The Diamondbacks are very weak against right handed pitching. Milwaukee's lineup hasn't been very good in recent weeks. The Brewers face Caleb Smith who has been in pretty good form of late. Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is clearly an under umpire through the last few seasons. This is a get away day game and those have been more to the under in the long run. There are likely to be a couple key guys out of the lineup. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 06-21-21 | Brewers -114 v. Diamondbacks | 1-5 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Milwaukee* I'm not going to overthink this one. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 2-30 in their last 32 games. They have lost 17 games in a row! They aren't quite this bad, but they are terrible. Milwaukee is in the battle at the top of the NL Central. The Brewers have an improving offense and a good bullpen. Brett Anderson is a middle of the road pitcher. Some are likely betting Arizona because they are better against left handed pitching. That hasn't gotten them far though. Arizona is 8-26 in their last 34 against a left handed starter. Merrill Kelly is a subpar pitcher and he's backed by a bad bullpen. Arizona's Carson Kelly was one of their hitters doing pretty well and now he is injured as well. There isn't much positive to say about the DBacks. They are finding ways to lose. Most of their games haven't been close either. The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Lay the very short price here. Take Milwaukee. |
|||||||
| 06-20-21 | Brewers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies are much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. The Rockies rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are an impressive 5th in the majors against lefties. Colorado gets to face a subpar lefty here in Eric Lauer. Lauer has terrible numbers against this Rockies lineup too. They have a .560 wOBA against him in only 53 at bats. A small sample size, but the Rockies have crushed him. Chi Chi Gonzalez isn't good at all. In his last six starts, he has a 6.86 ERA and a 5.91 FIP. Gonzalez doesn't induce soft contact, and he also doesn't miss bats. It's a really bad combination for a starting pitcher. The Brewers bats woke up a bit last night, and I like their matchup against Gonzalez and a poor Rockies bullpen here. Day games at Coors Field in hot temperatures have been great to over bettors in the long run. The high temperature here is scheduled to be about 89 degrees during this game. Both teams should score plenty here. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 06-20-21 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Kansas City hosts Boston on Sunday afternoon and the weather here should play a role in this game. A high temperature of 94 degrees with sustained winds blowing out to center field of 16 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph are in the forecast. Nate Eovaldi is a solid pitcher, but this Kansas City lineup is deeper than most people realize. The Boston bullpen is also worn down right now. Mike Minor isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. Minor goes up against a Boston lineup that has scored 30 runs in their last four contests. The wind matters more in Kansas City than most ballparks. At Kaufman Stadium with a temperature of 89 degrees and wind blowing out 7 mph or more, the over is 26-10 in the last 36 contests. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 06-19-21 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* Walker Buehler has pitched a shutout in each of his last two starts. Buehler has thrown 13 innings and allowed only 7 hits and no runs in those games. He started the season a bit slowly, but Buehler has a history of getting better as the season goes on. The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit left handed pitching well this year, but they are a bottom six offense in baseball against right handed pitching. Buehler is one of the better starters in the majors and he should make it tough on them. The Dodgers certainly have a very good offense, but they are a bit banged up right now. Matt Peacock has been up and down thus far in the majors, but he does have solid control. Chase Field will have the roof closed here and that is good for under bettors. Even better for under bettors is the fact that Doug Eddings will be the home plate umpire. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in Major League Baseball over the last eight years. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 06-16-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | 7-13 | Win | 123 | 19 h 7 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 2-17 in their last 19 games. To say that this team is bad and they are tanking is an understatement. The San Francisco Giants crushed them with a late inning comeback last night. Arizona was up big in the early going, and it looked like the Diamondbacks would finally pick up a win. Instead, it was San Francisco coming from behind to pick up another key win. That game could take quite a bit out of Arizona. Anthony DeSclafani has only allowed more than 3 runs in one of his 13 starts this year. DeSclafani is a guy who has given up a lot of long balls in the past in his career, but pitching in San Francisco has really helped with the pitcher friendly home park. Also, Arizona's hitters have a terrible .197 OBP against DeSclafani overall. Merrill Kelly is a subpar starter who is coming off a minor injury. The Giants are 23-6 in their last 29 as a home favorite. Getting this kind of plus money against a terrible team is my look. Take San Francisco -1.5. |
|||||||
| 06-16-21 | Angels v. A's -120 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Oakland ML* The LA Angels are without Mike Trout. That's obviously a massive loss. They are also expected to be without Anthony Rendon here. Rendon has a triceps injury and was expected to miss at least a couple days (Tuesday was his first day out). Trout and Rendon are elite hitters, especially against left handed pitching. Cole Irvin is a decent left handed pitcher. The Angels stats against left handed pitching this year are pretty good, but without those two stars the numbers would get a lot worse quickly. Griffin Canning has been much worse in the first half of the season than the second half in his career. He also has been worse on the road. Oakland is 110-49 in their last 159 games as a home favorite. They are 19-8 in their last 27 games against the Angels. Take Oakland. |
|||||||
| 06-15-21 | Rays v. White Sox OVER 8 | 0-3 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average at home. Tampa Bay is 6th in the majors in wOBA on the road. The Chicago White Sox are first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays here. This is the toughest test he has faced this year. He has struggled with the long ball, and Chicago certainly has power hitters through the lineup. Dallas Keuchel isn't even close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. Keuchel has a 4.14 ERA and a 6.03 xERA. Keuchel has an extremely low 5.15 strikeouts per nine innings on the year. The wind is blowing out in Chicago for this one and I expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances in this one. The over is 22-9-1 in the Rays last 32 road games. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 06-12-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a very weak team. They actually started out the year playing better than expected, but they have been worse of late. Pittsburgh has lost five straight games. Four of those five losses have been by two runs or more. Milwaukee starts Corbin Burnes here and to say he has been amazing this year is an understatement. Burnes has a 1.97 ERA. It's a fluke right? No. His xERA is 1.37 and his FIP is a ridiculous 0.97. Burnes has started 10 games this year and he hasn't had a single game FIP of worse than 2.82 all year. Chad Kuhl starts for the Pirates and he has always struggled in the first half of the season. Kuhl has a 4.77 ERA in the first half of the season (3.96 in the second half) in his career. Kuhl has a 5.61 ERA this year and his SIERA is a career high 5.68 on the year thus far. The Brewers have a massive advantage at starting pitcher, and they are at least even in the bullpen (better at the back end). Milwaukee also ranks 3rd in the majors in defensive runs saved. The Pirates are 20th. A mismatch here. Take Milwaukee -1.5. |
|||||||
| 06-11-21 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles now rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. It's quite the surprise, but Baltimore has consistently been very good against even high quality lefties this year. The over is 7-0 in Baltimore's last 7 vs. a left handed starter. While Yarbrough is a quality pitcher, he has actually been far worse at home than on the road in his career. Yarbrough has a 4.48 ERA at home and a 3.46 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average in his career at home is .316 compared to just .281 on the road. Akin for the Orioles has a 2.92 ERA at home and a 5.57 ERA on the road in his career. His wOBA allowed at home is just .253, but on the road it is .361. This is an awfully low total considering these numbers. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +104 | 2-5 | Win | 104 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox are 40-14 in their last 54 games vs. a left handed starter. The White Sox are also 40-15 in their last 55 home games. Chicago has an amazing .351 weighted on base average against left handed pitching this year. Certainly, Ryu is a a very good lefty, but the White Sox have proven more than capable of hitting good lefties during this streak. Toronto ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Blue Jays though rank only 15th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Dallas Keuchel is no longer a great pitcher, but he is generally good at keeping the ball down and that should help against Toronto's power. Though the White Sox did blow a late lead yesterday, Chicago clearly has the better of the two bullpens here. At plus money here, I have to side with the south siders who have a proven record against lefties. Take Chicago. |
|||||||
| 06-10-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -1.5 | 4-11 | Win | 110 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Marlins -1.5* Chi Chi Gonzalez is a clear fade starting pitcher in my book. Trevor Rogers is a starting pitcher I like to back. Chi Chi Gonzalez is striking out only 4.66 batters per nine innings. It's hard to be good with that low of a strikeout ratio, especially when you aren't good at inducing soft contact. Gonzalez has a 4.84 ERA and an xERA of 5.79. He puts too many guys on base and will work with a lot of traffic on a consistent basis over the year. Trevor Rogers has a 1.97 ERA and a 2.99 xERA. He also has a stellar 2.49 FIP. Rogers is striking out 10.62 batters per nine innings. He has a couple elite strikeout pitches. The Rockies offense ranks as the worst in the majors on the road. The Rockies are 5-23 on the road. Of their 23 road losses, 17 have been by 2 runs or more. The Marlins have a big bullpen advantage here as well and that could be important in this one. Take Miami -1.5 |
|||||||
| 06-09-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The over is 23-10 in the Angels 33 road games this year. Last year when Angel Stadium ranked 5th in park factor (a major hitters park) some wondered if it was a fluke. It ranks 8th this year so this is clearly a hitter friendly park at this point. It is 4th in home runs per inning in the majors. Griffin Canning and Brad Keller have both looked worse this year than they have in the last couple years. Canning has an ERA nearly a full run higher in the first half of the season than the second half in his career, so he might improve later in the year. Canning has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.52 FIP this year. Keller has a 5.50 ERA and a 6.41 xERA. His FIP is 4.69. Keller has been a major disappointment this year. The Angels hit right handed pitching well, even without Mike Trout in the lineup. The Royals sit middle of the pack in wOBA against right handed pitching. These are two bottom ten bullpens. Neither of these pitchers have been good at pitching deep into the game, and the middle relief here is weak. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 129 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Marlins -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are 4-22 on the road this year. Colorado is now without star Trevor Story, and this offense is arguably the worst in baseball (especially on the road). Antonio Senzatela is a strange case in that he actually pitches better at Coors Field than on the road. The Marlins offense has been serviceable at home this year. Pablo Lopez starts for the Marlins, and Lopez has been an absolute superstar when pitching at home. In his career, Lopez has a 2.78 ERA and a ridiculous .270 wOBA allowed at home. How about this season only? In 36 and 2/3 innings, Lopez has a fantastic 0.98 ERA at home. His wOBA allowed is .225. The Rockies have lost 16 games on the road this year by 2 runs or more. They are up against a terrific starter here. The Marlins also have a big bullpen edge. Take Miami -1.5. |
|||||||
| 06-06-21 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Padres and Mets have two of the top five bullpens in baseball. Their depth is really impressive. It has allowed them to limit big innings late in the games in most circumstances. Chris Paddack has drastic splits at home vs. on the road. He gets to start at home here and he'll be up against the severely shorthanded Mets offense. Marcus Stroman goes up against a Padres offense that has scored 4 runs or less in six straight games. They have scored 2 runs or less in four of those six games. Tripp Gibson is one of the better under umpires in baseball. The under is 10-1 in his last 11 games behind home plate this year. He consistently has a high strikeout/walk ratio. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 06-05-21 | Rays v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Texas Rangers rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching. Both teams are starting left handed pitchers in this game though. How do the two teams look against lefties? The Rays are all the way down at 24th, a big drop from their performance against right handed pitching. Texas is worse as well, sitting at 26th in wOBA against right handed pitching. Rich Hill started the year pitching poorly, but he has turned that around in a big way of late. Hill has allowed just 3 runs in his last 34 and 2/3 innings pitched. He now goes against a weak Rangers offense. Kolby Allard has potential for the Rangers. He hasn't been consistent, but this ballpark has proven to be favorable for pitchers. It ranks almost exactly on par with Petco Park so far this year in park factor. Texas is a bad team, but they have a top 10 bullpen. Tampa Bay's bullpen is deep and solid as they always are. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -124 | 6-4 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* Luis Castillo is still being priced as a top notch pitcher, but he sure doesn't look like one this year. Castillo's whiff rate and strikeouts per nine innings are the lowest of his career. His xBA is in the 25th percentile of all big league pitchers. The Cardinals have smashed Castillo in the past, and that was when he was pitching well. St. Louis' lineup has a great .363 weighted on base average against Castillo. Kwang Hyun Kim is a good pitcher who does pitch to contact, but he can induce fairly soft contact. He has a very low walk rate. The Reds lineup isn't the same without Votto and Moustakas. Castillo is still being priced the way he was a couple years ago. He hasn't shown that he is deserving of it. Take St. Louis. |
|||||||
| 06-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals meet in Kansas City on Friday night. Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in six straight games. The Royals have scored 42 runs in that time (7 runs per game). They now go up against a pitcher in bad form in Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker has 5.90 ERA and a 5.66 FIP on the season. He has been bad. Brad Keller has a 5.68 ERA. He has a 6.55 xERA and a 4.77 FIP. No matter how you look at it, Keller has been bad this year as well. Both bullpens are below average so there chances for runs late too. Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here. The over is 137-107 in his games behind home plate. The weather is a help here too. The wind is blowing out about 10 mph and this stadium has shown strong over trends with the wind blowing out like this. A warm temperature in the low 80's is a positive as well. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 06-02-21 | Rangers v. Rockies -104 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Texas Rangers have been finding ways to lose baseball games. Texas has lost 13 road games in a row. They have lost 7 straight overall. Colorado isn't a good team. The Rockies always are much better at home than on the road though. Colorado is 17-12 at home on the year. The Rangers are 9-21 on the road. Texas is an ugly 12-40 in their last 52 road games. With a Rangers team that is this bad, if you are giving me just about anyone against them at this price range on the road it is going to be hard not to look to back them. Antonio Senzatela has thrown the ball well of late, and his career numbers are actually quite a bit better at Coors Field than on the road. Jordan Lyles had very little success in his time pitching at Coors Field. Texas is 27th in the majors in defensive runs saved. Colorado is an impressive second. Take Colorado. |
|||||||
| 05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -128 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The San Francisco Giants continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. The Giants offense has outperformed all expectations. Buster Posey has been fantastic this year. Mike Yastrzemski is back and hitting the ball well. Brandon Crawford has heated up of late as well. One thing that has gone overlooked this year is how good the Giants are defensively. San Francisco ranks 2nd in the majors in defensive runs saved. Where are the Angels? They are second worst behind only the Tigers. The Angels have major defensive liabilities. Dylan Bundy is a streaky pitcher. He is capable of dominating, but he is also capable of getting crushed. Bundy has allowed 17 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. Johnny Cueto is no longer a great pitcher, but Cueto is inducing soft contact and has excellent control. He doesn't allow free passes much at all. The Giants are 24-6 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 in San Francisco. The Angels are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take San Francisco. |
|||||||
| 05-30-21 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. Hyeon-Jong Yang starts for the Rangers here. He is a unique lefty who can give some hitters trouble if they haven't seen him. The Mariners haven't seen him. Seattle is a bottom three offense in baseball. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 12 games. The Mariners have scored more than 4 runs only once during that time. Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners here. He has looked like an improved pitcher this year. His walk rate is better and he is getting hitters to chase at more bad balls. The Texas offense is worse against left handed pitching. Mahrley is an under umpire behind the plate and this is still a pitchers park in Seattle. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners are a bottom three offense in baseball. In fact, you could argue they are the worst offense in the majors in their current state. Texas is no better than an average offense, and I would say they are slightly worse than the average offense. Justin Dunn has been a lot better when pitching at home than on the road. Dunn has had some promising starts of late as well. Mike Foltynewicz is certainly an up and down pitcher, but he gets to face a team that swings and misses a ton. Texas has scored 0 runs in 3 of their last 9 games. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. They have only scored more than 4 runs once in that 11 game span. Tripp Gibson has proven to be a solid under umpire in his time behind the plate. The under is 9-0 in his 9 games behind home plate this year. His strikeout/walk ratio has been much higher than the league average in recent seasons as well. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 05-28-21 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8 | 11-2 | Push | 0 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians host the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night in Cleveland. The weather should play a big factor in this game. Winds of 20-25 mph blowing in off Lake Erie make the under a very good look here. There is a chance of rain that could be a factor here as well so I'm keeping this play smaller than I would have if it would have been dry. Still, if the game is played this under holds value. Ryu has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball over the last few years. He has great control and induces soft contact at a good rate. The Cleveland offense is one of the worst in baseball. The Indians are going with a bullpen game here. That isn't a bad thing either since the Indians bullpen has been elite this year. The Blue Jays bullpen is an underrated group so if there are rain delays and Ryu gets pulled early the bullpen should hold their own as well. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 05-27-21 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* Mike Muchlinski is a solid under umpire. He has called more strikes in the long run than the average umpire by a solid amount. This is a very early get away day game. These kinds of games have been lower scoring on the average in the long run. Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius are out of the lineup for the Phillies. That is a big hit to this Phillies offense. The Marlins offense is one of the weakest in the majors. This is still a favorable park for pitchers as well. Spencer Howard has a ton of upside and this is a real opportunity for him. Pablo Lopez has been amazing at home in his career, and he is having his best year of his career this season. Only one of Lopez's last five starts has gone over this very low total. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 05-26-21 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 9 | 0-1 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Jose Urena has a 4.62 ERA and a 5.12 xERA on the year. His xBA ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate is in the 7th percentile of all pitchers. Triston McKenzie has a 6.89 ERA and a 5.68 xERA. McKenzie ranks in the bottom 1 percent of all pitchers in baseball in walk rate. How bad has his control been? McKenzie has walked 4 batters or more in all but one start this year. Both pitchers come into this game in bad form. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 12-15 mph during this game. Comerica Park has strong over trends with winds blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 or higher and wind out at least 10 mph the over is 49-23-2 in the last 74 at Comerica. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 133 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on White Sox -1.5* The Chicago White Sox are 23-3 in their last 26 games against left handed pitching. Chicago has the best weighted on base average against left handed pitching in the majors, and it isn't even close. They'll face Kwang Hyun Kim here. Kim has been good this year, but there are some major regression signs in his profile. Kim has an xBA that is in just the 24th percentile of pitchers. He also has a 2.73 ERA and a 4.59 xERA. Kim will be up against some excellent hitters in this one. Lance Lynn has been really solid again this year for the White Sox. Lynn has an xERA in the 89th percentile of all pitchers and an xBA in the 87th percentile of all pitchers. It isn't a fluke that Lynn has such great numbers. While the Cardinals rank 3rd in the majors in wOBA against lefties, they are only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against righties. Lynn is a dominant righty and I think they could struggle here. Also, the White Sox bullpen is a top five bullpen in the majors. The Cardinals rank dead last in the majors in bullpen xFIP and bullpen SIERA. A big mismatch here. With the moneyline price so expensive, I'm on the run line here. Take the White Sox -1.5. |
|||||||
| 05-23-21 | Mariners v. Padres -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* Justin Dunn's single biggest problem is his walks far too many batters. Dunn is averaging 5.71 walks per nine innings. He ranks in the 9th percentile in the majors when it comes to BB percentage. The San Diego Padres draw the third highest percentage of walks of any team in the majors. San Diego has a lot of patient hitters who will make him work here. Dunn also has a career .312 OBP allowed at home and a .343 OBP allowed on the road. Yu Darvish starts for San Diego. Darvish has a stellar 1.81 ERA and a very good 2.62 xERA so far this year. He's up against a Seattle lineup that is one of the worst in the majors. Seattle strikes out at the fifth highest rate of any team in the majors. Darvish has a great called plus swinging strike rate of 32.6%. The Padres bullpen ranks first in the majors in ERA and they are first in xFIP and SIERA as well. It isn't a fluke. Seattle's bullpen is middle of the road. This one is a mismatch. Take San Diego -1.5. |
|||||||
| 05-21-21 | Orioles v. Nationals OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have Jorge Lopez on the mound here. Lopez has a 6.35 ERA and a 5.69 FIP. He gives up a ton of home runs. Lopez has allowed: 1.96 home runs per 9 innings in 2019, 1.62 HR per nine last year, and 2.12 HR's per nine this year. His career swinging strike rate is only 9.1%. He doesn't fool enough people and the Nationals do have some power in their lineup now that they have gotten healthier. Stephen Strasburg will be on a pitch count here. Exactly how many he will throw we don't know, but he hasn't thrown any more than 75 in his rehab starts working up to this game. Strasburg has much better numbers in the second half of the season than the first half in his career, and he struggled badly in his first two starts earlier this year. With neither of these pitchers expected to pitch deep into the game, the middle relief should show up here. Both of these teams are middle of the road or worse when it comes to their bullpen overall. The weakness for both teams is middle relief where they are lacking depth. The game time temperature is a balmy 80 degrees in mid May and the ball should be carrying well. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 05-20-21 | Yankees v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller has had a strike percentage higher than the major league average every single season dating back to 2010. He is as consistent as they come at being a strike caller. That alone can't make a game go under the total, but it is a great bonus. Dane Dunning is an underrated pitcher. Dunning is due for some positive regression. He has a 4.34 ERA, but all his advanced metrics suggest he has been better than that. His xERA is 3.74 and his FIP is a stunning 2.63. He has an xFIP of 3.18. Dunning has a solid 10.9% swinging strike rate and he has good control. The Rangers have been no hit twice this year, and this is clearly one of the weakest lineups in baseball. German is a solid pitcher for the Yankees. New York also has a top three bullpen in all of baseball. It's an early get away day game and that means there could be a star or two missing from the lineups here. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 05-19-21 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins start Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been fantastic this year. He has a 1.84 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 2.42 FIP. He is averaging 11.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Rogers has multiple strikeout pitches. He faces a Phillies lineup that is without Gregorius and Realmuto is questionable with an injury as well. Zach Eflin faces the Marlins lineup that ranks third from last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Eflin has a career ERA of 3.98 at home compared to 5.12 on the road. Eflin has a 3.86 ERA this year, but his xERA is 3.24 and his FIP is 3.95. Eflin is a positive regression candidate. Jeremie Rehak is the home plate umpire here and his strikes called percentage have consistently shown to be one of the highest of any umpire in the majors. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 05-18-21 | Pirates +119 v. Cardinals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have John Gant on the mound here. Gant has a tremendous 1.83 ERA, but his xERA is 5.16 and his advanced metrics all scream that he is a major regression candidate. Gant has been hit hard on a consistent basis, but he has had batted ball luck and he's been able to strand a lot of runners this season. J.T. Brubaker is turning into a very solid starter. Brubaker has a very low walk rate. He also gets a lot of guys to swing at bad pitches consistently. Brubaker has a good ERA of 2.58 and his xERA is a solid 3.59. The Pirates bullpen is a top six or eight bullpen in baseball. The Cardinals bullpen is a bottom six or eight bullpen in baseball. I'm getting the better starter and the better bullpen at a nice plus money price. Take Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
| 05-18-21 | Giants +109 v. Reds | 4-2 | Win | 109 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The Cincinnati Reds start Luis Castillo. Castillo isn't right this year. He is either hurt or his release point is off. Castillo looks nothing like his old self. He has an ugly ERA. Even his FIP and expected ERA are near 5, so it hasn't been all bad luck. Castillo isn't getting people to chase like he has in the past. He has struggled badly in the first couple innings of the game. Castillo's first half numbers in his career are far worse than his second half numbers (his ERA is nearly a full run worse in the first half). Anthony DeSclafani faces his old team here. The Reds offense is without Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas is questionable again here. Eugenio Suarez is in a season long slump as well. DeSclafani has had great command this year. He has been a much better pitcher in the first half of the season in his career. The Giants have been underrated by the betting markets. The Reds are far from full strength and even at full strength the Reds are likely a .500 type team. Take San Francisco at plus money here. |
|||||||
| 05-16-21 | Reds v. Rockies +103 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Cincinnati Reds are without Joey Votto right now due to a wrist injury. Votto was having a nice season and he is definitely missed in the middle of the lineup. The Reds also have Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel banged up. Both of those guys were out of the starting lineup on Saturday and are questionable here. Cincinnati's lineup is far weaker now than it was at the start of the season. Jeff Hoffman returns to Coors Field where he struggled terribly in a large sample size. Hoffman has an awful 7.58 ERA (and a 1.73 WHIP) in 130 and 2/3 innings in his career at Coors Field. Antonio Senzatela starts for the Rockies. He has actually been slightly better at Coors Field than on the road in his career. The Rockies are 13-11 at home this year. Colorado is 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. Cincinnati. The Reds aren't good at all at following a win with another win. The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 following a win. This is an inconsistent team that has struggled on the road. They are shorthanded right now. Take Colorado. |
|||||||
| 05-15-21 | Indians v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians have a team batting average on balls in play of .240 this year. The Seattle Mariners have a team batting average on balls in play of .244. No one else in baseball has a BABIP below .261. Neither of these offenses are great, but they are definitely better than they have looked so far this year. Positive regression is on the way in the long term. We have two pitchers with command issues here. Triston McKenzie has walked 4 guys or more in all but one of his starts this year. Justus Sheffield has had significant control problems in his career as well. Stu Scheurwater is behind home plate and he has a smaller strike zone than the average MLB umpire. That could be a key here with these two starters. Take the over in this one. |
|||||||
| 05-15-21 | Angels -104 v. Red Sox | 0-9 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Angels ML* The LA Angels start Dylan Bundy here. Bundy has fantastic raw stuff and he has the ability to dominate a game. He can also struggle at times because he gives up quite a few home runs. Martin Perez starts for the Red Sox. He is a subpar pitcher who relies on inducing weak contact to cover up the fact that he doesn't have good control and he can't miss bats. The Angels have Anthony Rendon back in the lineup and that should be big for this offense. A first four in the lineup of: Fletcher, Ohtani, Trout, and Rendon is about as good as they come. Boston is a solid team, but they carry a high batting average on balls in play and look like a team that is due for some regression to the mean in the long run. Take the Angels. |
|||||||
| 05-15-21 | Cubs -118 v. Tigers | 8-9 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play on Cubs ML* This isn't a play on the Cubs as much as it is a fade of the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is now a miserable 33-78 in their last 111 home games. They are 21-64 in their last 85 home games vs. a right handed starter. Detroit is arguably the worst team in baseball. Jose Urena is a guy who lets a lot of guys on base with his poor control. The Cubs offense has been much better of late, and Kris Bryant returned last night. Trevor Williams and Jose Urena is close to a wash. The Cubs offense is far better than the Tigers offense. The Cubs bullpen is a middle of the road bullpen, while Detroit's bullpen looks like the worst in the majors so far this season. Take Chicago. |
|||||||
| 05-14-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Over* Steven Matz has been a wildly inconsistent pitcher through his career. He has allowed far too many home runs on a consistent basis though. That isn't a good fit for TD Ballpark in Dunedin, where the Blue Jays are playing their home games right now. Matz has only pitched at home twice this year and one of those starts (against Washington) was one where he allowed 8 hits and 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Phillies have plenty of power, and I think they'll get to Matz here. Vince Velasquez has even more trouble with hard hit fly balls than Matz. Velasquez has a terrible 2.28 homers allowed per nine innings rate so far this year. The Blue Jays have scored at a very high rate at home so far this year. Both starting pitchers have blowup potential here and these are two quality offenses. This is the second best ballpark for hitters according to Park Factors so far this year. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Under* Usually I begin by talking about the starting pitchers, but in this one I think the bullpens deserve the first spot. The Yankees have what many believe is the best bullpen in baseball. They have shutdown relievers who have elite swing and miss stuff. They rank first in the majors in bullpen xFIP and SIERA on the year. Tampa Bay has a very deep bullpen. That allows them to use a guy like Rich Hill and not take him deep into the game because they have multiple good options to bring in right after him. The Yankees offense hasn't really gotten going all that much this year, and this is a pitcher friendly park. Tampa Bay has historically been better offensively on the road. Jameson Taillon has great control and his xERA is only 2.97 compared to his ERA of 5.02. He has had some very tough luck so far this year. Rich Hill has a 5.17 ERA and a xERA of only 3.57. His curveball is still excellent and he has above average control. The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 road games. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 vs. an AL East opponent. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 05-12-21 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox have been the most consistent team in the majors when it comes to crushing left handed pitching in the last two years. They rank second in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year. The Minnesota Twins rank a solid 11th. J.A. Happ is 38 years old. He has had a very nice season, but he is due for regression to the mean. Happ has a 1.91 ERA and a 4.22 xERA. He also has a 3.84 FIP and a 5.39 xFIP. He has allowed a ridiculously low .179 batting average on balls in play. That can't continue in the long run. The White Sox should get a lot of good swings here. The White Sox lineup has a .347 wOBA against him. Dallas Keuchel has a 3.79 ERA and a 5.29 xERA. Keuchel is still a quality pitcher, but he is no longer dominant. The Twins have a nice .324 wOBA against him. This is a low total for two offenses who hit lefties very well. These pitchers aren't good enough to have this low of a total against strong offenses. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 05-11-21 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros lineup is one of the deeper lineups in baseball. All of their top six guys in the order are elite. Jason Castro has slumped early this year, but he is a solid long term hitter in the nine spot. There are a lot of professional hitters in this lineup. They make pitchers work. Shohei Ohtani has been good on the mound, but he walks far too many batters. Ohtani is walking 9.16 batters per nine innings so far this year. He struggled mightily with command last year in his two starts as well. The Astros are likely to have key guys come up with some runners in scoring position here. Lance McCullers Jr. is an inconsistent pitcher. He is capable of shutting teams out. He is also capable of getting hit hard. The Angels lineup has a stellar .367 career weighted on base average against him. Both of these pitchers struggle with control, and Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He has one of the smallest strike zones of any umpire in baseball. He is a clear over umpire. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 05-09-21 | Mariners v. Rangers -117 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Texas ML* Dane Dunning is one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He hasn't gotten much run support this year, but his statistics are very impressive if you take a deep look. Dunning has a 3.81 ERA and a 3.50 xERA. His FIP is an impressive 2.23. He has excellent control and has multiple plus pitches. Justus Sheffield's control is a problem. He is capable of being very good, but his lack of control makes him less consistent than Dunning. Seattle's bullpen is also a little worse than the Texas bullpen. The home plate umpire here is Phil Cuzzi, and home teams have done better in his games behind the plate than any other umpire in baseball in the last five years. I'll lay the short price. Take Texas. |
|||||||
| 05-08-21 | Rays v. A's UNDER 7.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays start Tyler Glasnow here. Glasnow's advanced metrics actually look better now than they did a year ago. His spin rates are even better than he had in his amazing 2019 season. Glasnow also has a whiff rate in the 94th percentile (Baseball Savant) compared to 71 percent in 2019 and 83 percent last year. Frankie Montas is a more inconsistent pitcher, but the Rays offense isn't particularly strong either. Montas has held Tampa Bay to a .278 wOBA in limited action against them. Glasnow has held Oakland to a .240 wOBA in his limited action against them. It's important to note that Doug Eddings will be the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage in baseball in the last five years. For two pitchers who have very high strikeout rates, but can sometimes struggle with walks, Eddings should help a lot. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 05-06-21 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 9-12 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers offense has looked a little better the last couple games (though they did only have 3 until extra innings on Wednesday), but this is arguably the worst offense in baseball. Detroit has scored 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games. Nate Eovaldi is the Red Sox ace, and with Boston coming off a tough loss last night I expect Eovaldi to pitch well here against this overmatched Detroit lineup. Eovaldi has multiple plus pitches with solid command of each. The Tigers have a hard time stringing together hits. Boston's offense continues to carry a high BABIP which suggests regression to the mean is likely in the long run. Spencer Turnbull does a good job keeping the ball down and he has been consistently solid the last few seasons for Detroit. Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 05-06-21 | Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 7 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff continues to be one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Woodruff has consistently been absolutely blowing away lineup after lineup. It hasn't been an easy slate of offenses he has faced, but he has made it look easy. Zack Wheeler is clearly an above average starter. He's against a Brewers lineup that is badly shorthanded right now. The Phillies offense will likely be without Bryce Harper again here as well. The wind here calls for 10 mph in from center field. This is a get away day game where both teams are likely to sit out a player or two from their recent normal rosters. The under is 8-0 in the Brewers last 8 as a road favorite. The under is 5-0 in Woodruff's last 5 as a road favorite. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -116 | 9-4 | Loss | -116 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Oakland* The Oakland A's are a ridiculous 98-42 in their last 140 as a home favorite. They are also 47-16 in their last 63 vs. a left handed starter. Oakland's lineup is built to hit left handed pitching very well. Robbie Ray still has control issues, and he allows a lot of home runs. Oakland ranks third in the majors in ISO against left handed pitching, so they certainly have a lot of power. Chris Bassitt isn't a spectacular pitcher, but he's clearly above average and he has been very consistent. The Blue Jays are a banged up team, and they have been swinging at far too many bad pitches of late. Oakland is laying a very short price here considering their great home record in recent years. Ray isn't a trustworthy starter (though he does have upside potential). The A's are the play for me. Take Oakland. |
|||||||
| 05-05-21 | Orioles +108 v. Mariners | 6-0 | Win | 108 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Baltimore ML* John Means has been money in the bank early in the season throughout his career. Means is a crafty left hander who is really a tough guy to hit until you get a lot of looks at him. This Seattle team hasn't had many looks at him (Combined 33 at bats against him). Means has a career 2.90 ERA in the first half of the season. His second half ERA is 4.47. Means hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a game all year this year. He has only allowed more than 1 run twice in his six starts. Kikuchi is a wildly inconsistent starter for Seattle. He is certainly capable of throwing a shutout, but he also allowed 5 runs in two of his last three starts. His career ERA at home is 5.57. Baltimore is better against left handed pitching, and the Orioles are plus money here with a very solid starter on the mound. Take Baltimore. |
|||||||
| 05-04-21 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 7-11 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* To say that this Detroit offense is bad is an understatement. The Tigers have been shut out in 3 of their last 4 games. Detroit has scored 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. This a terrible lineup from top to bottom. Nick Pivetta has been very solid this year. Pivetta still walks too many guys, but Detroit is 28th in the majors in walk rate. Pivetta does have good stuff to rack up strikeouts, and Detroit is first in the majors in strikeouts this year. Michael Fulmer has been serviceable this season. He's done a good job limiting the big innings. The Red Sox offense is due for some regression over time. Their batting average on balls in play is the second highest in the majors. Fenway Park plays as an under venue with wind blowing in and cool temperatures. The temperature will be in the upper 40's with wind blowing in at 5 or 6 mph here. The under is 31-19 in the last 50 at Fenway with any wind blowing in and a temperature of 50 or lower. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 05-03-21 | Rangers +160 v. Twins | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Texas Rangers ML* The Minnesota Twins are a team I believe will play better in the long run, but I think they are overpriced here. Something is wrong with Kenta Maeda. Maeda has some terrible numbers on the year overall, and his last two outings have been his worst. Maeda's Baseball Savant numbers from 2020 compared to 2021 thus far (100th percentile being the best and 0% the worst) Average Exit Velocity allowed- 2020- 93% 2021- 22% Hard Hit Percentage- 2020- 98th percentile 2021- 20th percentile xERA- 2020- 93% (excellent) 2021- 22nd percentile (terrible) K Percentage- 2020- 88th percentile 2021- 16th percentile Texas isn't a good lineup, but they have been scrapping and clawing and staying in games. They are 13-16 overall and 6-7 on the road. Minnesota is 10-16 and 5-8 at home. Dane Dunning is a highly touted youngster who has impressive numbers on the whole. Dunning has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.31 xERA. His FIP is a tremendous 2.21. The Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. I understand the Twins being favored here, but this price is far too big for me to pass up. Take Texas. |
|||||||
| 05-02-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 4-8 | Win | 103 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Chi Chi Gonzalez and Merill Kelly both have major blowup potential. These are two guys who let a lot of runners on base on a consistent basis. Gonzalez has been fortunate this year with his ERA. According to Baseball Savant, Gonzalez has an xERA that ranks in the 16th percentile. His K percentage is in the 7th percentile. This is a guy who is capable of getting hit around in a big way at any point. Merrill Kelly's xERA is 10th percentile and his K percentage is only 9th percentile. Kelly has been knocked around by this Rockies lineup in the past. These are two weak bullpens who have been overworked in the last few games. Now, they have starters going who are unlikely to work deep into the game. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 05-02-21 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 4-13 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* Jose Berrios has been dealing of late. Berrios has a 3.04 ERA on the year and a stellar 2.21 FIP. Berrios has always been much better when pitching at home. His career wOBA allowed at home is just .286. Brad Keller has pitched poorly much of this year, but it will help him to have one of the best under umpires in the majors behind home plate here. Phil Cuzzi has a 55.6% under rate in his games behind home plate in his career (459 games). Cuzzi has a very high K/BB ratio. The wind here should be factor. Winds of 12-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast to be blowing in from center and left field during this game. Take the under here. |
|||||||
| 05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have now played 13 games at home this year. Only two of those games have gone under this total. Luis Castillo hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Every metric you look at he simply hasn't been the same as in recent years. There is something wrong with Castillo. I don't know if it is an injury or a bad release point or what, but the differences are drastic. Here is a look at a few select stats from Castillo in the last 3 years according to Baseball Savant. On these they are ranked by percentile with 100 percent being the best and 0 the worst. K Rate- 2019- 81% 2020- 83% 2021- 13% Average Exit Velocity- 2019- 83% 2020- 87% 2021- 35% xERA- 2019- 85% 2020- 88% 2021- 33% The Cubs have been very unfortunate in batted ball luck and their offense should improve with time this season. Zach Davies has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. Davies has more walks than strikeouts in his first five starts. Davies has gone 4 innings or less in four of his five starts (the last 4). He has a 9.47 ERA and a xERA of 6.20. This Reds offense has been great at home. Both bullpens are weak and they were used a lot last night. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 05-01-21 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Over* Target Field is a place where you want to know the weather report. When the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph during the game the over is 74-49 in the last 123 contests. That will be the case for this game. Tom Hallion is the umpire behind the plate here, and he has called a far lower percentage of pitches a strike than most umpires so he helps the over here. Danny Duffy has been good so far this year, but he is clearly due for regression. This is a guy who is past the peak of his career and he has a 0.39 ERA and a xERA of 3.98 this year. Minnesota's lineup is getting healthier and this team is clearly going to be better offensively than they have been on the season as a whole thus far. Shoemaker has been a good pitcher late in the season in his career, but in the early going he often struggles. He does have some trouble with the long ball and the wind blowing out here is an issue for him. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have played 12 games at home this year. They have only had two of those games finish under this posted total. The weather in this game calls for winds of 13 or 14 mph blowing out during this game. That certainly is a help. The Chicago Cubs got Bryant and Baez back in the lineup yesterday, and they put up a big number against Atlanta. Chicago is last in the majors in batting average on balls in play, which means they are clearly due for positive regression as an offense. Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't great either. The Cubs do have quite a few guys who are noted for being good against left handed pitching. Jake Arrieta is expected to start for the Cubs, and he is a clear negative regression candidate. Arrieta has a 2.57 ERA and a xERA of 4.08. His strand rate of runners is too high now, and he isn't generating many swings and misses. Take the over here. |
|||||||
| 04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants -133 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star MLB Moneyline Game of the Week* The Colorado Rockies are now 1-7 away from home on the season. That one win was an extra innings win over the Giants last night. Colorado actually led at one point in that game despite having only one hit vs. six hits for the Giants. Colorado did show power in the late innings, but the Rockies were the worst road offense in baseball with Arenado last year and they are even worse this season. Colorado is going to have a lot of games where their offense struggles badly on the road. German Marquez is a pretty good pitcher, but his numbers against the Giants aren't good. San Francisco's lineup has an impressive .402 weighted on base average against him. Marquez has an ERA of 4.50 at San Francisco too, so it hasn't just been damage done at Coors Field. Alex Wood is in great form to start the season. Wood has been a streaky pitcher his whole career. He now faces the worst road offense in baseball. I think the Giants bounce back and win at home here against the lowly Rockies. Take San Francisco. |
|||||||
| 04-28-21 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros started red hot and then fell apart. They have since started putting things back together again. I still think this is a team that will be very successful on the season overall. Remember, they had a lot of injury and COVID 19 disruptions during their really poor stretch. Zack Greinke starts here and he has been as solid as ever so far this year. Greinke's advanced metrics look excellent. He has been doing a great job with his command using multiple plus pitches. Justin Dunn starts for the Mariners and his walk rate is a major problem. Dunn's control is really poor and the Astros have some high quality hitters in this lineup. I would expect a lot of Astros on the bases here. Dunn has been especially bad in his career in the first half of the season and on the road. Greinke has allowed this Mariners lineup to have only a .246 weighted on base average. In 87 at bats, they have only 4 extra base hits (all doubles) against him. Take Houston -1.5. |
|||||||
| 04-28-21 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play Under* Dane Dunning is a good young pitcher. Dunning had a 3.97 ERA and 3.67 xERA last year for the White Sox. He has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.31 xERA this year (a 2.46 FIP). Dunning has a career swinging strike rate of a solid 10.7%. Alex Cobb isn't a great pitcher by any means at this stage of his career, but he isn't bad. His advanced metrics show he has been unlucky this season so far. Cobb has a 6.28 ERA and a 3.81 xERA and a 2.53 FIP. Dunning is up against a good Angels lineup, but he'll be helped by this ballpark being a really good pitchers park. This stadium is now one of the five best pitcher parks in the majors. It has really suppressed runs last year and so far this season. Cobb is up against a weak Texas lineup. The Rangers often struggle to string together hits because they just don't have any lineup depth. Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire and he is behind the dish here. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 04-27-21 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
|
*4 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are one of the worst teams in the majors. They haven't won on the road so far this year. They are 0-7 on the road. Six of those seven losses have been by two runs or more. Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez has the terrible combination of no swing and miss stuff and some terrible control. He is constantly working with a lot of guys on base. The Giants offense has been better than expected thanks in part to a great start to the season from Buster Posey this year. Aaron Sanchez has a stellar 1.83 ERA and a very good xERA of 3.18 on the season. Sanchez has been pitching from ahead in the count much more. The Rockies lineup is very weak and on the road this team is going to have major trouble scoring this year. Take San Francisco -1.5. |
|||||||
| 04-27-21 | Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 5-9 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals is a mess without Juan Soto. Soto is out for this game. Trea Turner was injured last game as well and he is questionable. If he's out the Nationals are arguably out their top two offensive players. Toronto is going with a bullpen game here. The Blue Jays have a deep bullpen. They rank in the top six or eight in the majors in advanced metrics across the board. Washington has been shut out in two of their last three games. They have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. Max Scherzer starts for the Nationals here. He has been very solid in the early going this season. Scherzer still has elite stuff and the Blue Jays are a team that strikes out quite a bit because they go after a lot of bad pitches. Scherzer should be able to strike out a lot of hitters here. The under has hit at a little better than 55% in interleague games with a total of 8.5 or higher in the past ten years. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 04-25-21 | Brewers -127 v. Cubs | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* Brandon Woodruff is a top 10 or 12 starting pitcher in the majors. Woodruff has a 1.96 ERA and a 2.03 xERA on the season thus far. His fastball velocity is up from last year, and Woodruff has great control. How has Woodruff done against this Cubs lineup? The Cubs lineup has an ugly .147 batting average and a .210 weighted on base average against him. That is in a pretty decent sample size of 125 plate appearances. Jake Arrieta has pitched pretty well so far this season, but I don't trust him. Arrieta is 35 years old and is clearly not the pitcher he was a few years ago. Arrieta has a 2.86 ERA this year, but his xERA is a much higher 5.21. The Brewers have Wong back in the lineup and though Milwaukee is not great offensively, the Cubs offense isn't very good either. Milwaukee has a big starting pitching edge, and the Brewers have the two best relief pitchers of the two teams as well. Take Milwaukee. |
|||||||
| 04-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 8 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Brady Singer and Matt Boyd both pitched great on Saturday and the final was just 2-1 when these teams met. I think this one will be higher scoring. The winds have switched around in a big way for this contest. Comerica Park is one where the weather plays a large role. With winds blowing out, this has been a really good over ballpark. The wind is expected to average about 13 mph out toward left and center field during this game. Danny Duffy has a 0.50 ERA this year, but his xERA is 4.33 and his xFIP is 4.04. Duffy has given up a bunch of home runs in recent seasons, and the ball should be flying pretty well here. The Tigers lineup has a .316 batting average and a .380 OBP against him. Michael Fulmer has looked better this year, but I still don't see him as better than a mediocre pitcher. The Tigers bullpen might be the worst in the majors. The Kansas City lineup is certainly improved, and they should have plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 04-24-21 | Royals -109 v. Tigers | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Kansas City Royals have absolutely crushed Matt Boyd in his career. This Royals lineup .360 batting average and a .427 weighted on base average against Boyd. Whit Merrifield is a whopping 25 for 48 against Boyd. Hunter Dozier is 10 for 21. Brady Singer is a guy I believe has a pretty high upside. Singer threw the ball really well in his last start. He was the Royals first round draft pick in 2018, and he has very good command of all of his pitches. Singer has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.10 FIP so far this year. The Tigers have what is absolutely one of the worst teams in baseball. Kansas City is clearly improved this year. Matt Boyd gets respect from the oddsmakers, but he has struggled mightily against this Royals team in the past. Kansas City has the better bullpen as well. Detroit is an awful 29-73 in their last 102 home games. Take Kansas City. |
|||||||
| 04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Over* Keeping an eye on batting average on balls in play is important at this stage of the season. This can be a really good measure of which offenses are getting fortunate or unfortunate. Which two teams rank as the most unfortunate in batting average on balls in play so far this year? The Yankees and the Indians. Here these two teams are matched up against each other. We have two lefties on the mound here. Jordan Montgomery has a career 5.03 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average allowed on the road is an ugly .334. Logan Allen has questionable control and that is something that makes me want to bet lower overs with. Allen works himself into too many jams. These two have good bullpens, but the starters are subpar. The offenses have been unlucky so far this year. This total is too low. Take the over. |
|||||||
| 04-21-21 | Diamondbacks +165 v. Reds | 8-5 | Win | 165 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Arizona DBacks ML* The Cincinnati Reds have started the season pretty well, but there are signs of regression for this team. They have the 4th highest batting average on balls in play in the majors. They have a ridiculously high .401 BABIP with men in scoring position. The offense isn't as good as they have looked so far this year. The Reds will be without Nick Castellanos as he serves a suspension here. He's a key piece to this lineup. Merrill Kelly isn't a good pitcher, and it is possible the Reds knock him around. Still, this is a price that I simply can't get to. I think this is a wager that wins 44 or 45% of the time and we are getting a big plus money price. Tyler Mahle has been much better away from home than at Great American Ballpark in the past. The Reds used their top three relievers late in last night's game that was suspended and that might have them a bit limited here. Take Arizona. |
|||||||
| 04-21-21 | Brewers +184 v. Padres | 4-2 | Win | 184 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have taken the first two games of this series. The public is going to be all over San Diego to avoid the sweep here. San Diego deserves to be the favorite here, but this line is out of control. Houser is a decent starter for the Brewers and this Padres lineup is expected to be missing a starter or two on Wednesday as the manager rests some guys during a period where they are getting no days off. Lamet starts for the Padres and this is his first start of the season. He struggled in limited action in Spring Training and is recovering from an injury. Lamet has a really high upside, but the books are giving him a ton of respect in this tricky first spot back. He'll be on a pitch count here too. The Brewers will have their top two bullpen arms ready here since they saved them in a blowout last night. Expect to see Williams and Hader in a tight game. I have to grab this big price. Take Milwaukee. |
|||||||
| 04-21-21 | Twins v. A's UNDER 8 | 12-13 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins offense isn't the same without Kepler, Garlick, and Simmons in the lineup. They are on the COVID 19 list right now. Minnesota has scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 7 seven games. In the other two games in that span they scored 3 and 4 runs. This lineup is struggling badly right now. Frankie Montas has allowed only a .309 weighted on base average at home in his career compared to .344 on the road. Montas has a 3.92 ERA in the first half of the season in his career compared to a 5.29 ERA in the second half. Kenta Maeda is a consistent pitcher, and he has been good when his teams are struggling in the past. Maeda has a 3.40 ERA in the 1st half of the second and a 4.29 ERA in the 2nd half. Maeda has been very good so far this year. His command is excellent. These two played a doubleheader yesterday and I think some starters will get a day off here on get away day. The under is 6-0 in Maeda's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 following a loss by his team in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in Montas' last 4 vs. a team from the AL Central. Take the under. |
|||||||
| 04-20-21 | Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
|
*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Hyun Jin Ryu in this one. He has been an underrated starting pitcher for several years in a row. Ryu is very solid. He has excellent control and he does a great job limiting hard contact even on pitches inside the strike zone. The Boston Red Sox are first in the majors in batting average on balls in play this year. They are at .333 which is unsustainable on BABIP. They have clearly had some good fortune. Boston is a good offense, but they aren't this good. Their recent hot stretch has this price out of whack in my opinion. Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher, but he has been much better in the second half of the season in his career, and he has been far less consistent than Ryu. This is a nice buy price on the Blue Jays. Take Toronto. |
|||||||