*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers start Corbin Burnes here. Burnes historically has much better numbers on the road than at home (1.024 WHIP compared to a 1.10 WHIP). Even though Great American Ballpark is clearly a hitters park, Burnes has a 1.80 ERA in Cincinnati in 25 innings pitched. The current Reds lineup has only a .213 wOBA against him. 

Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds, and he has been terrible at Great American Ballpark. In his career, Ashcraft has a 6.10 ERA at Great American Ballpark (100 innings). He has an ERA north of 7 at home this year. The Brewers have hit him hard in the past too.

The Reds are a solid team, but the pitching mismatch here is significant. The price here is too cheap on the Brewers for me to pass it up.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets dropped a 3-1 game to the Padres on Saturday night. On this final contest of the first half of the season, I like this game to stay low scoring as well.

It's a pitching matchup of Max Scherzer vs. Joe Musgrove. Both of these guys have fantastic numbers in their respective careers against the opposing offense. Scherzer has allowed a very low weighted on base average (wOBA) of .242 in 204 plate appearances for this Padres lineup. Musgrove has a very good .282 wOBA allowed against this Mets lineup. 

Scherzer isn't what he was several years ago, but he still has great strikeout stuff and he has a history of pitching better in day games. Musgrove has been fantastic in his last eight starts. He has a 2.01 ERA and a 2.52 FIP in those games.

Both offenses have been inconsistent and this is a tough matchup for them.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds are second in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month. This is an offense that is very hard to quiet on a consistent basis. Joey Votto has started producing nicely again of late. The youngsters are fantastic with De La Cruz, Steer, Friedl, and McClain really shining. Cincinnati is aggressive on the bases, and it has paid off most of the time. The Reds were quieted by Corbin Burnes last night, but Colin Rea doesn't have nearly the stuff Burnes does.

Luke Weaver has been very weak this year. He's gotten great run support, but Weaver has been hit around hard. Weaver is in the 10th percentile in expected batting average allowed out of all pitchers in the majors. He is in the 18th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has an ERA above 12 in the first inning. The Reds bullpen has been overworked of late as well. Milwaukee has scored six runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Philadelphia Phillies have been better than I expected this season. Their defense is much improved and the pitching staff has been very solid. Zack Wheeler is a guy we all know is solid, and his numbers don't show good he has been on the year. Wheeler has a 4.03 ERA, but a 3.39 xERA and a 2.92 FIP. Wheeler has a very low 67.4% left on base percentage so far this year. That should improve through the year. 

Sandy Alcantara had a breakout season last year, but he has fallen off badly this year. Alcantara had a 2.28 ERA last year. He has a 4.93 ERA this season thus far. He has a 4.39 SIERA, so he has struggled in general. Alcantara is giving up more hard contact, and his strikeout percentage has fallen a lot. Alcantara has a very poor .355 wOBA against this Phillies lineup. 

Philadelphia is 12-0 in their last 12 road games. The Phillies are 11th in wOBA against right handed pitching. Miami is 21st in that same statistic. 

Take the Phillies. 

*3 Star Play on Miami ML* Eury Perez has been the #1 ranked prospect in the Miami Marlins organization for quite some time. Perez had been superb until last game when the Atlanta Braves hit him hard. The Atlanta Braves have hit everyone hard though. Atlanta is easily the best offense in the majors over the last month. 

The market has come in against Perez and backed St. Louis, which has pushed the price down to a level where I'm going to back Miami here. The Marlins are 18-5 in their last 23 home games. The Cardinals have been finding ways to lose of late. St. Louis is set to be a seller at the deadline when they were expected to win the NL Central.

Jack Flaherty hasn't been very good this year. Flaherty has been very inconsistent. He has allowed six runs in two of his last three starts. 

Take Miami here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The weather forecast calls for 91 degrees and a very slight breeze blowing out at Nationals Park on Thursday afternoon. The heat has really helped the over at this park. Nationals Park has seen 102 overs and 73 unders with temperatures of 85 degrees or higher. This one certainly fits that bill.

Brandon Williamson has an ERA over 5 and an xERA over 6. He has had issues throwing strikes in the minors and he has given up the home run ball far too often in the majors. 

Mackenzie Gore has been sidelined with a finger injury. Gore is back for this game, and he faces a Reds offense that has been on fire. In the last 30 days, only one offense has been better than the Reds in weighted on base average (the Braves). Cincinnati's youngsters are hitting the ball really well. This has suddenly become a deep lineup that excels against lefties.

Both pitchers have been very shaky and the conditions are prime for scoring. Manny Gonzalez is behind home plate and he is a solid over umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on DBacks ML* The New York Mets have won three straight games, but this is still a flawed team. The Mets have a bottom five bullpen in baseball. Senga is a pretty good starter, but he struggles badly with walks. The DBacks have the 10th highest walk rate in the majors against right handed pitching. The DBacks are a top five team in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching overall. 

Tommy Henry has only allowed four runs in his last three starts. Henry appears to be improving as he goes this season. The Mets offense ranks 20th in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

The DBacks are still a very good team, and I see this as a good price to take them against the Mets while the market gets a bit higher on the Mets during their win streak.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros offense has come alive in a big way of late. Houston has 63 runs in their last nine games (7 runs per game on average). They have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last six games. Houston is better against lefties and they face a lefty in Kyle Freeland in this game. Freeland has to go through several red hot right handed hitters who are at their best against southpaws. 

Brandon Bielak starts for the Astros here, and he hasn't been good. Bielak has a 4.37 ERA and a 5.67 FIP. He has allowed 10 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Astros bullpen is gassed right now, and Bielak isn't very likely to pitch deep into the game. The Rockies offense is bad against lefties, but they have been a top 12 offense against right handers. 

I expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Orioles ML* The New York Yankees return home from a long road trip for this one. They didn't receive a day off, and they had to play a doubleheader on Saturday. The Yankees bullpen has been used heavily of late. 

Domingo German pitched a perfect game in his last start, but in the two previous starts he allowed 17 runs in 5 and 1/3 innings pitched. German has a 4.54 ERA and a 4.87 FIP on the season. 

Tyler Wells has been solid for the Orioles. In his career, he actually has better numbers on the road than at home. Wells has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight starts. The Orioles bullpen is healthier than the Yankees bullpen and they haven't been overused of late.

Baltimore has slumped lately, but they still have the more complete team here. Aaron Judge is out and a lot of key bullpen pieces are out for New York. I like Baltimore to get back on track here.

Take the Orioles. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks and LA Angels meet in LA on Sunday afternoon. Zac Gallen is clearly one of the best right handed starting pitchers in the majors. Gallen has been a bit inconsistent at times, but he has been really good in two of his last three starts. Gallen has a 3.02 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the year.

Reid Detmers is the guy who most people don't realize is coming a very solid starting pitcher. Detmers has a 1.05 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in his last four starts. Detmers is up against an Arizona lineup that has been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Detmers is an up and coming good lefty.

Doug Eddings is behind the plate for this one. Eddings is clearly a top two or three under umpire in baseball. He consistently has some of the very highest strikeout/walk ratios and strikes called percentages. He has those again this year and the under is 9-4 in his games behind the plate.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cincinnati +1.5* The San Diego Padres have lost 9 of their last 11 games. The Padres have been finding ways to lose games of late. Their bullpen is a weak spot, and Michael Wacha is coming back from an injury in this one. Wacha isn't likely to pitch as deep into the game as normal. 

The Cincinnati Reds have won 15 of their last 18 games overall. Cincinnati on the +1.5 runline is 17-1 in their last 18 games. The Cincinnati youngsters have been fantastic in the lineup. Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Matt McClain and company are coming up clutch and this team never stops battling.

Cincinnati does still have some flaws as a team, but this Reds team isn't getting enough love from the oddsmakers. The Reds are fast and their speed has been making a difference on the bases. The defense of the Reds is good as well. The Padres have underachieved in a big way. 

Take Cincinnati +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have the third highest weighted on base average in Major League Baseball in the last 14 days. They have been putting up some big numbers. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, Spencer Steer and all the youngsters in this lineup have been contributing in a big way. Now, the Reds come home to the second most hitter friendly ballpark in the majors. 

Graham Ashcraft has been terrible of late for the Reds. Ashcraft has a 12.62 ERA in his last six games. He has been much worse at home throughout his career. San Diego's lineup has been inconsistent, but they should get a lot of scoring chances here.

Seth Lugo is a mediocre pitcher, and I expect him to have a lot of traffic on the bases here too.

A game time temperature of 91 degrees with a very slight breeze blowing out means the conditions here are great for runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox have gotten a bit banged up, and their offense has really struggled of late. Yoshida has missed the last two games, and he is questionable for this one. Boston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last six games. 

Jesus Luzardo is a young pitcher with great stuff. He has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.42 FIP on the season. Luzardo has just 7 walks and 55 strikeouts in his last eight starts. 

Brayan Bello starts for the Red Sox. He has really rounded into form of late. In his last five starts, he has a 2.35 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. Bello was a very highly touted prospect, and he seems to be figuring it out. 

While both teams have been slightly above average on offense in the last 14 days, they are 1st and 3rd in the majors in batting average on balls in play. Miami is at .355 and Boston at .339 during that time. Those numbers will regress toward the mean. 

Stu Scheurwater is the home plate umpire in this one, and he has a very high strikeout/walk ratio which suggests he is helpful to the pitcher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Miami Marlins are 21-8 in their last 29 games. The Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. Miami is playing great baseball of late. They have their hottest starting pitcher on the hill in this one. Braxton Garrett has a 2.00 ERA and a 2.03 FIP in his last eight starts. He has 8 walks and 62 strikeouts in that time span. Garrett is coming off a 0 walk and 13 strikeout performance in his last game. 

The Red Sox are expected to go with Ort to start the game here, but it will be a bit of a bullpen game. Ort has good numbers on the season thus far, but it is a very small sample size. He struggled badly in the minors the last couple years and I would expect him to regress toward that performance in the majors as well. 

Miami as a team and Braxton Garrett as the starting pitcher are being underrated here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The St. Louis Cardinals haven't been nearly as good as expected. They might be the most disappointing team in the majors. The Cardinals were awesome against left handed pitching last year, but they are 17th in weighted on base average against lefties this year. The Astros are 13th. 

Houston's Jose Altuve is questionable for this one with a sore heel. I think that is more than accounted for in the line for this game. If Altuve plays, it is a big bonus. The Astros do still have a pretty good lineup without Altuve.

Houston's Framber Valdez gives them a pitching advantage. He has a sparkling 2.27 ERA and a 2.71 FIP. Valdez has a great combination of swing and miss stuff and very good control.

The Astros are 42-17 in their last 59 following a day off. The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 following a day off. The Cardinals are also 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the Cincinnati Reds and the Baltimore Orioles are above average for the season when it comes to weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Both of these teams have been red hot offensively of late in general too.

Cincinnati has scored 5 runs or more in 11 of their last 12 games. The Reds young nucleus of hitters has turned this into a really deep lineup with a rare combination of speed and power. Elly De La Cruz gets much of the attention and it is well deserved, but Matt McClain and Spencer Steer are stars as well. Joey Votto has looked good in his first week back in the majors too.

The Reds pitching staff is badly shorthanded now with injuries. Brandon Williamson has an ERA above 5 and has been allowing far too many baserunners. 

The Orioles start Cole Irvin here. Irvin has a 7.71 ERA and his xERA is even higher at 8.91. His FIP is 5.41. He is clearly a below average left hander. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays are first in the majors in weighted on base average. The Rays have worked the count consistently on starters and gotten to the bullpen in early. 

Kansas City starts Daniel Lynch and then the bullpen behind him is very weak. Lynch is a lefty who has had quite a bit of trouble keeping the ball in the park. The Rays should get to him.

Tyler Glasnow starts for the Rays. He's clearly not himself and he has been working from behind in the count too often.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He has the lowest strike/walk ratio of any umpire in the majors in the last five years. He's a clear help to the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have won 12 straight games. It's thanks in large part to their offensive explosions of late led by a bunch of great youngsters. De La Cruz, McClain, Steer, and company have been fantastic. They are now getting a big boost from Joey Votto now that he is back in the lineup. This is clearly an above average lineup now. 

The Atlanta Braves have the best lineup in baseball in my opinion. This is a deep lineup that is excellent against both right handers and left handers. They hit for both power and average. Atlanta has scored 8 runs or more in six of their last nine games. They have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last five. 

The Reds have scored 8 runs or more in four of their last six games. Cincinnati is up against a mediocre lefty in Shuster in this one.

Ashcraft has been the Reds worst pitcher of late. He has ugly splits at home in his career.

A high temperature of 87 degrees and winds blowing out at 6 mph are a help too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* The San Diego Padres are 8th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. San Diego is much better against left handed pitching. They are up against a subpar lefty here in Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals.

Corbin has a 4.89 ERA, 4.92 FIP, and a 6.32 xERA on the season. The Nationals lefty has a drastically lower swinging strike rate of 9.0% on the season. He still gives up a lot of hard contact. The Padres have plenty of power, and Corbin gives up a lot of home runs.

Joe Musgrove has been rounding into form with an ERA of 2.15 ERA and a 2.97 FIP in his last five starts. His season to date stats don't mean that much to me at this point. I think Musgrove is still a very solid starter.

It's a good spot for the Padres to keep pouring on the runs after winning 10-0 over the Giants on Thursday.

Take San Diego -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have a .310 OBP against right handed pitching. They have a .335 OBP against left handed pitching. They are up against a mediocre left hander in Tommy Henry here. In limited action against him, the Nationals have hit him well. 

Jake Irvin starts here for the Nationals. Irvin is one of my lowest rated starting pitchers in the majors. Irvin ranks in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in walk rate. He also ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in whiff rate. That's a really bad combination. 

The Nationals are 7th in wOBA at home this year. The DBacks are 3rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

I think both teams will see plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Yusei Kikuchi in this one. Kikuchi has consistently throughout his career pitched worse as the season has gone along. His two best months of the year have been the first two months of the season in his career, and it isn't close. Kikuchi has been tailing off of late. He has a 4.91 ERA and a 6.24 FIP on the season. 

The Miami Marlins aren't very good against right handed pitching, but they smash left handed pitching. Miami is 4th in weighted on base average against lefties. The Marlins have been on fire of late in general. They are 17-5 in their last 22 games. They are 12-2 in their last 14 contests. 

The Blue Jays have a good offense, but they have been inconsistent this year. Eury Perez is the Marlins #1 rated prospect, and he has been tremendous in his first seven big league starts with a 1.80 ERA. 

The Blue Jays have a losing record on the road this year, and I think this is a good price on the home team.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers start Freddy Peralta here. Peralta has drastic home/road splits in his career. Peralta has a career WHIP of 1.024 at home and a WHIP of 1.329 on the road. His ERA is 3.50 in day games in his career as well. He faces a Pirates team that has been much stronger especially of late against left handed pitching. The Pirates have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. 

Luis Ortiz is an inconsistent starter. He is certainly capable of getting hit hard, but the upside is very real too. Ortiz has been wild so far this year and that has hurt him quite a bit. He should be helped a lot by home plate umpire Doug Eddings. 

Eddings has consistently been a top two or three under umpire in baseball for many years. In Eddings last 68 Sunday games behind home plate (get away type games in many cases with early starts) the under is 46-22. His strikes called percentage is very high annually. He should help both pitchers here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather in this game calls for wind blowing in about 12-15 mph from left center field. That should be a nice boost at Citi Field, which is already ranking in the top 5 pitcher's parks in the majors this year according to park factors.

Kodai Senga has a 1.93 ERA and a .250 weighted on base average allowed at home on the year. The Cardinals offense has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The bottom of their order has really been holding them back in a big way.

Adam Wainwright is far from the pitcher he once was, but the Mets offense is definitely a level worse without Pete Alonso in the middle of the order.

Home plate umpire Shane Livensparger's games are 30-18 to the under in the last couple seasons. He has a high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.03 so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox are 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Seattle Mariners are 22nd out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Michael Kopech started the year pitching poorly, but he has really coming into his own of late. In his last five starts, Kopech has 5 walks and 44 strikeouts. He has a 1.72 ERA and a 2.57 FIP in those five starts.

Bryan Woo was very good in the minors and he is coming off a good start against the Angels. Woo is backed by a good bullpen for Seattle.

This is a top three or four pitcher's park in the majors. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Cole has a 2.64 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. Cole has fantastic numbers against the Mets lineup. How good? Cole has a .242 weighted on base average against the current Mets players in 107 plate appearances. 

Justin Verlander has been really inconsistent this season. He has either been great or terrible. Verlander is coming off a really poor start against the Braves. I think this is a good bounce back spot for him.

Both Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso are out with injuries right now. Those are the two best offensive players in this matchup.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire. He has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Miller is calling more than 66% of pitches a strike this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Reds ML* I have to bet the Reds in this one at this price. Jordan Lyles is 0-10 with an awful 6.84 ERA and a 6.01 FIP on the season thus far. Lyles is giving up a ton of hard hit batted balls this year. His strikeout percentage is bottom 15 percent in the majors. He has an extremely high home run rate allowed on the season. Lyles often doesn't pitch very deep into the game, and then the Royals bullpen is in for a long while. The Royals have the second worst bullpen in the majors ahead of only the Oakland A's.

Brandon Williamson was hit hard by the Dodgers, but the Royals are certainly a big step down as a lineup from the Dodgers lineup. Williamson has pretty good stuff and I think this is a bounce back opportunity for him. The Reds bullpen rested their best guys last night and they should be available in this game too. This is a very solid bullpen. 

Cincinnati is much better now with their young stars in the lineup. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, and Spencer Steer are all really solid players who are leading the offense to much brighter things. 

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The Cincinnati Reds do start a weak pitcher here in Luke Weaver, but everything else in this game points in their direction. The Reds have a very underrated bullpen. The Reds are a top six or eight bullpen in baseball right now. Cincinnati's offense with Matt McClain and Elly De La Cruz in the lineup has been producing in a big way of late. Cincinnati still has plenty to play for knowing they are in the NL Central where no one is running away with anything. 

Zack Greinke gets more respect in the betting markets than he should at this point. He was once a great pitcher, but he hasn't been at that level for several years. He's backed by the second worst bullpen in the majors. The Kansas City offense has been terrible against right handed pitching. 

Given this price, I have to side with the Reds on the road. Kansas City is 9-23 in their last 32 home games. The Reds are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.

Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. While JP Sears isn't an excellent lefty by any means, he is a a young lefty with good stuff and high potential. The Brewers could find it tough going against him on Sunday. 

Freddy Peralta has drastic home/road splits. Peralta has 3.41 ERA at home and an ERA over 6 on the road this year. He's also against an Oakland A's offense that is dreadful against right handed pitching. I like Peralta's chances of getting back on track in this one. The Brewers bullpen is still an above average one too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Angels start Patrick Sandoval in this one. Sandoval can be dominant at times, but he does have some poor games as well. In this one, I do like the matchup for him. Sandoval has a good history against the Seattle batters he has faced through his career thus far. Importantly, Seattle is 27th in wOBA against left handed pitching on the season. The Mariners have the fourth worst strikeout percentage against lefties too, and Sandoval is a high strikeout type lefty starter.

Woo starts for the Mariners. There isn't a long history on him and he appears to be an average prospect for the Mariners. The Angels are a bit shorthanded in the lineup right now. LA is a much better team against lefties than righties as well.

Phil Cuzzi is a top five under umpire in the majors. He consistently has had extremely high strikeout/walk ratios of 3 or higher. So far this year 9 of his 11 games behind the plate have stayed under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Oakland A's have been playing a bit better of late. I don't think it will continue for long. Oakland is easily the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching. Julio Teheran isn't a great right handed pitcher, but he doesn't usually put many people on base for free. 

Paul Blackburn is an average or a little below right hander for the A's. The Brewers are much better against right handed pitching than lefties. Milwaukee has a massive bullpen advantage in this game as well. Oakland is the worst bullpen in the majors by a wide margin. The Brewers bullpen is still a pretty good one. 

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Cleveland is second worst in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Cristian Javier is one of the better right handed pitchers in the American League. Javier has great control and his curveball is a major weapon. 

Logan Allen is a highly rated youngster for Cleveland. The left handed Allen has a 2.76 ERA and a solid 3.22 FIP. The Astros are a talented lineup, but they are likely to be without Yordan Alvarez here after he was injured early in last night's game. Houston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games.

These two of the top eight bullpens in baseball. It should be tough to get a lot of scoring chances in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros start Framber Valdez in this one. Valdez has a stellar 2.16 ERA and a 2.87 FIP. He is one of the top pitchers in baseball now. There aren't going to be very many times you can lay this short of a price on Valdez. 

Toronto is an inconsistent team, and Jose Berrios is an extremely inconsistent pitcher. There is always a chance that Berrios could dominate and the Jays win, but I think the odds implied by the oddsmakers here are too high on the Blue Jays. Berrios has a 3.66 ERA and a 3.72 FIP on the season.

The Astros also clearly have the better and deeper bullpen. Houston has gotten healthier in the last few weeks.

The Astros are 8-0 in Valdez's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners start George Kirby in this one. Kirby is a really good young pitcher. He is one of the most underrated young pitchers in the game today. Kirby has elite control (0.76 walks per nine innings) and has a 3.04 ERA on the season. With a FIP of 3.22 and an xERA of 3.27 it's clear it hasn't been a fluke that he has had success. This is a day game, and in his short career Kirby has thrown 75 innings in day games and has a stellar WHIP of just 1.04 and an ERA of 2.88 in those day games. 

Michael Wacha is an inconsistent pitcher. He is capable of looking good, but he is also capable of a clunker. Wacha has a terrible history against this current Seattle Mariners lineup. He has allowed this lineup to hit for a .502 weighted on base average in a fairly large sample size of 109 plate appearances. 

The Padres have been without Boegarts for the last three games and he is questionable here. Grisham is also injured and may miss this game. 

Seattle is the healthier team and with the better starting pitcher. The Mariners bullpen also has better advanced metrics.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals offense has been really good against left handed pitching this year. Washington is 4th in the majors in OBP at .356 against lefties. Tommy Henry has a 3.73 ERA, but a 5.21 FIP on the season. Henry has allowed just a .244 BABIP so far this year. He isn't likely to be able to keep that up. Henry ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate too.

Washington starts Jake Irvin here, and I believe he is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Irvin has a 5.67 ERA and a 5.80 FIP on the season. He ranks in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in the majors in whiff rate. His xERA is 5.99. The Diamondbacks have had a top eight offense against right handed pitching all year.

Washington's bullpen is bottom three in the majors. Arizona's bullpen is worse than an average bullpen as well.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play on Mets ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Kikuchi in this one and he is a really tough guy to trust. Occasionally he'll have a great start, but on the whole he is a below average lefty. He walks far too many guys and gives up a bunch of home runs. Kikuchi's best two months of the year by his career stats? They are April and May. Later in the year he has gotten much worse. Even in his typically better months, Kikuchi has a 44.7 ERA and a high 5.96 FIP this year.

Senga starts for the Mets. The Mets are looking to avoid the sweep at home here. Good teams in this spot have been good bets in the long term. It also helps that Senga is coming off his best start of the year, and he's at home where he has been absolutely lights out so far this year. Senga has allowed a .136 batting average and has a sparkling 1.20 ERA at home in 30 IP this season.

New York has been good at home, and this is a nice bounce back spot for them.

Take the Mets. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's offense is just terrible. Oakland has scored two runs or fewer in 12 of their last 14 games. Oakland is decent against left handed pitching, but they are awful against right handed pitching. No other team is even close to as weak as Oakland's lineup against right handed pitching. 

Eury Perez is a very highly touted prospect for the Marlins. He's a tall right hander with overpowering stuff who should rack up the strikeouts in the big leagues in his career. Perez gets a favorable matchup here.

Medina starts for the A's here. While his numbers aren't good thus far, he has pitched pretty well in the minors as well. He has a small sample size in the majors and was hit hard by the Astros and Angels, two very good lineups who are clearly several notches better than the Miami lineup. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He is clearly a top two or three under umpire. His called strikes rate and strikeout/walk rate are consistently among the very highest in the majors. He should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins -1.5* If you would have faded the Oakland A's and taken their opponent on the run line in each of their last 28 games, you would be an impressive 19-9. It is hard to overstate how bad this Oakland A's team is this season. 

Oakland has been at least decent as an offense against left handed pitching, but they are far and away the worst lineup in the majors against right handed pitching.

Edward Cabrera is due for some positive regression. In his last six starts, Cabrera has a 5.10 ERA and a 3.92 FIP (a 3.36 SIERA). Cabrera should strand runners at a higher number going forward. 

The Marlins go up against Harris a young lefty for the A's. Miami has been a top six offense against left handed pitching this year. They should get plenty of scoring chances on Harris. Oakland also has the worst bullpen in the majors by a mile.

Take Miami -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have been very good offensively against left handed pitching, but they are a bottom eight offense against right handed pitching. The San Diego Padres offense has really disappointed this year. They strike out too much, and they are up against a very good strikeout pitcher in Jesus Lazardo in this one. Luzardo is striking out 10.27 batters per nine innings and he has a 3.67 ERA and a 3.68 FIP. 

Joe Musgrove doesn't have the fantastic numbers he had last year thus far, but the advanced metrics suggest improvement is coming. Musgrove has a 5.64 ERA and a 3.69 xERA. He is in the 84th percentile according to Baseball Savant in average exit velocity allowed. He has very good control. In 79 plate appearances, this Marlins lineup has an xWOBA of just .271 against Musgrove. 

It's a get away day game and that could mean a key bat or two out of the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds are 11th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Cincinnati's offense has been terrific of late. The Reds have scored 8 runs or more in four straight games and in five of their last six. 

James Paxton was hit hard in his last game, and he is still working his way back from injury. The Red Sox bullpen isn't deep.

Luke Weaver has a 5.41 ERA and a 5.29 FIP. He's up against one of the best offenses in baseball here. The Red Sox have been particularly good offensively on their home field. The Reds middle relief is a big weakness and Weaver could struggle to pitch deep into this one.

Fenway Park is a place where the weather matters a lot. The forecast calls for 70 degrees and 10 mph winds blowing out toward left and center field during this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees are a pretty significant underdog here in a game where I believe it should be a coin flip. Yes, the Seattle Mariners have a starting pitching advantage with Logan Gilbert on the mound. The Yankees have the best bullpen ERA in baseball though, and their lineup has gotten healthier in recent weeks. 

Offensively, Seattle ranks in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average. Nestor Cortes is a tough matchup for the Mariners hitters. While Cortes hasn't pitched great so far this year, I still believe he is a pretty good left hander.

The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. In a game that I believe should be -105 on each side, I'm taking the nice plus money price.

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play Under* Michael Kopech had fantastic stuff before injuries derailed his career for a couple years. He was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Kopech has now thrown two absolute gems in a row. He has thrown 15 innings in his last two starts. In those 15 IP- he has allowed just 3 hits and 0 runs. He has walked one batter and struck out 19. Kopech has allowed 2 runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Griffin Canning is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has a high upside and he showed that in his last start. 

Both the Angels and White Sox are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. In fact, Chicago is a dreadful 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

The under is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-2 in the White Sox last 7 vs. a right handed starter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Yu Darvish against Gerrit Cole is a good pitching matchup in New York. 

San Diego is 23rd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the year. This Padres lineup just hasn't been very good all season. San Diego relies a lot on walks, and Cole has good control. He also has a very favorable home plate umpire here. 

The Yankees are 19th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. New York's depth has really been tested by their injuries. Darvish is still capable of missing a lot of bats. 

Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He has an insanely high 3.82 strikeout/walk ratio this year. He definitely likes to ring up batters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been the best in baseball so far this year. Tampa Bay has been consistently excellent all year. They have scored six runs or more in three of their last four games and six of their last ten games.

Noah Syndergaard is far from what he was a few years ago before the injuries. He now doesn't miss many bats and is giving up a lot of hard contact.

The Dodgers will go against opener Jalen Beeks and then Cooper Criswell here. Beeks is a mediocre lefty. The Dodgers have a very unlucky .227 batting average on balls in play against lefties. They are due for positive regression against lefties. Criswell is a right hander who has looked very shaky in his first three big league appearances. Los Angeles has a deep lineup that has caught fire of late. The Dodgers have scored five runs or more in seven of their last eight games. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners are third worst in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. While JP Sears does have some weaknesses, he has great control and is a tough matchup for the Mariners. Sears is on a bad team, but I do like his potential for the long term.

Logan Gilbert is a much above average right handed pitcher. Guess which team is last in wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors? The Oakland A's, and it isn't even close. 

Oakland has scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. I don't think they will score many here either. 

Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire here. The under is 39-26 in his last three years behind home plate. He carries a top ten strikeout/walk ratio out of all umpires in the big leagues.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have been the worst offense in the majors so far this year. Cleveland lacks consistency in the lineup. The Guardians have a star in Jose Ramirez, but they haven't surrounded him with enough help. 

The Chicago White Sox offense is just mediocre. Chicago has lost a lot of key pieces in recent years from their lineup.

Michael Kopech had the best outing of his career in the White Sox last game. Kopech has a sub 4 ERA if you discount his first start of the year. Kopech was a really highly touted pitcher who is coming back from some major injury issues.

Cal Quantrill has a good history against the White Sox, and Quantrill has in general been a guy who does a good job not issuing free passes.

Lentz is the home plate umpire here and he has had an above average strikes called rate and a high strikeout/walk ratio. 

The weather calls for a steady breeze blowing in at about 12-14 mph during this game. The wind in angles have been strong in Cleveland home games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 22-4 at home this year. They are 40-12 in their last 52 home games. Tampa Bay has been the best offense in the majors so far this year, and it isn't even close. Taj Bradley starts here, and he is the Tampa Bay Rays best starting pitching prospect. He has four starts so far this year with a 3.54 ERA and a 3.29 FIP. 

Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays. Berrios has a long history of pitching very poorly on the road. Berrios has a 2.22 ERA and a ..261 wOBA allowed at home this year. He has a 6.67 ERA and a .358 wOBA allowed on the road.

Toronto is 3-13 in their last 16 vs. the AL East. The Blue Jays are 18-38 in their last 56 games in Tampa Bay. 

Tampa Bay has the much better defense which is underrated by many as well. I have to fade Berrios on the road against a team that has been money at home.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Boston has deep lineup with guys who can work the count quite a bit and get on base. Michael Wacha is middle of the road right handed pitcher. Wacha lacks that dominant pitch to strike guys out with.

Corey Kluber was once an excellent pitcher who could dominate on a consistent basis. Kluber is nothing like he was a few years ago. Kluber has a 6.41 ERA and a 6.63 FIP on the season. He has given up a ton of hard hit balls on the season. He just isn't fooling people like he did in the past. The Padres offense does have the lowest batting average on balls in play in the majors against right handed pitching, so they should get better in this category.

Mark Wegner is behind home plate, and Wegner is one of the better over umpires in baseball. He consistently has one of the lowest called strike percentages of any umpire. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Patrick Sandoval has turned himself into a good left handed starting pitcher. Sandoval has an elite curveball, and he has improved his command of the rest of his pitches in the past year. Sandoval has a 3.22 ERA and a 3.99 FIP on the season thus far. 

The Minnesota Twins rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average away from home. Minnesota is also 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA against lefties. This is a tough matchup for the Twins offense. 

Varland is a young pitcher with a unique delivery that can bother some hitters until they get accustomed to it. The Angels offense is good, but they aren't as deep now without Anthony Rendon.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here. The under is an impressive 45-17 in his last 62 games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. This young lineup has several guys who really crush left handed pitching. Kikuchi is a left hander who this Baltimore lineup has hit hard in the past. How well have they hit him? The Orioles current lineup has a .446 wOBA against Kikuchi in 73 plate appearances. It isn't a huge sample size, but it is plenty large enough to see that they have really seen him well. Kikuchi has a 3.89 ERA on the year, but his FIP is 5.46 and he has stranded a ridiculous 90.9% of base runners so far this year. He can't keep that up long term. I like the matchup for Baltimore.

Toronto is still one of the best offenses in the majors. Gibson is a really inconsistent pitcher. He is more than capable of getting hit hard in any one game. Toronto has scored four runs or more in each of their last six games against the Orioles. Toronto has a strong top of the order and Gibson tends to put too many guys on base free.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chase Silseth has a 6.59 ERA as a starter in the majors. Silseth doesn't have enough plus pitches at this point in his career to consistently get guys out over several innings. While Baltimore has slumped a bit offensively of late, the Orioles are still a pretty good lineup.

Dean Kremer has a 4.97 ERA, but his xERA is 6.93 so far this season. The Angels are a dangerous lineup. They rank top ten in the majors in all major categories. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games overall.

The weather here is favorable with a game time temperature of 75 degrees and winds blowing out to right field at 10 mph. This park is a hitters park with conditions like this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* The Oakland A's are 4-18 at home this year. Oakland is a terrible team and they have absolutely no home field advantage. In fact I would even argue that Oakland at this point is at a disadvantage playing at home in front of next to no one. There is very little pressure on the opposition to go against this very weak roster and the lack of a crowd.

Merrill Kelly is an above average right handed pitcher. The A's can hit lefties some, but they are terrible against right handed pitching. 

Oakland starts Drew Rucinski and he is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Rucinski has an 8.16 ERA and a 7.27 FIP in three starts this year. Two of those starts were at home in this pitchers ballpark as well. The DBacks are underrated overall and the lineup is pretty solid.

Take Arizona -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Milwaukee Brewers are terrible against left handed pitching, but they are above average against right handed pitching. Milwaukee has a .329 OBP against right handers. The Brewers are at just .278 OBP against lefties. They are up against Jack Flaherty, a right hander who is really struggling right now. Flaherty has an ERA of 9 in his last five starts. The Brewers lineup has a fantastic .401 weighted on base average against Flaherty in his career.

St. Louis' offense has come on in a big way of late. They are averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last ten contests. Freddy Peralta is a good pitcher, but the Cardinals have hit him very well in the past. Peralta has a 6.59 ERA in St. Louis. The Cardinals have a .382 wOBA against him.

This is a low total given the matchups.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Dodgers start Tony Gonsolin in this one. Gonsolin has great career numbers against the Padres. Gonsolin has a low .265 weighted on base average allowed against this Padres lineup in his career. The Padres have scored three runs or fewer in 7 of their last 10 games overall.

Ryan Weathers is no great pitcher, but he is serviceable. The Dodgers lineup is much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

This is a Sunday afternoon game and it wouldn't be a surprise if a key hitter or two misses this one. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He is a very good under umpire. He has the highest strikeout/walk ratio in the majors in the last five years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Kikuchi has thrown the ball a bit better this year, but I still don't trust him. Now he's up against an elite lineup and Kikuchi still has blowup potential. 

The Braves have lost the first two games in this series, and this is a Braves team I have rated as high as anyone in the majors. I expect Atlanta to come out with a good effort here.

McHugh will start for the Braves in a bullpen game. The Braves bullpen has the best SIERA in the majors. They are a deep bullpen and they haven't been overworked of late.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Angels ML* The Cleveland Guardians aren't a bit hitting team to begin with, but Cleveland is bad against left handed pitching. Cleveland is 1-11 in their last 12 games against a left handed starting pitcher. The Guardians are 28th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. 

The LA Angels have been pretty good on the road so far this year. Reid Detmers is inconsistent, but he has quality stuff and the Guardians are a good matchup for him. 

Cal Quantrill ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate and whiff rate. Quantrill is a pitch to contact guy, and the Angels have a lot of guys who can make hard contact. 

The Angels have been on fire offensively. They have scored 5 runs or more in seven of their last nine games. The Guardians offense has failed to score 5 runs in 11 straight games.

Take Los Angeles. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The San Francisco Giants lineup has crushed right handed pitching this year (4th in the majors in weighted on base average), but they are 26th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Henry isn't a great pitcher by any means, but I think he can do alright against a Giants lineup without Mike Yastrzemski and with a banged up Austin Slater. 

Arizona has been underrated by the oddsmakers all season. The Diamondbacks have some nice young talent, and the DBacks are healthier than the Giants at this stage. Ketel Marte is a really good player, and Gurriel Jr. was a nice addition in the offseason. 

Alex Cobb is a pretty good starting pitcher, but Arizona is 5th in wOBA against right handed pitching this year. Cobb has allowed a 48% hard hit rate on batted balls this year. He is stranding almost 87% of runners on base, which is sure to regress over the course of the season.

We're getting a nice plus money price here.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Under* Clayton Kershaw isn't what he was several years ago, but he is still a very good pitcher. Kershaw has a 2.53 ERA and a 3.30 xERA so far this year. He has 10.13 strikeouts per nine innings on the season thus far. Kershaw now faces a Brewers team that has the highest strikeout rate against left handed pitching so far this year. They are striking out at a really high 30.5% rate. Kershaw should pitch well against this lineup.

Wade Miley has been above average so far this year. He can be inconsistent, but the Dodgers rank 25th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching so far this year. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the last six years. Eddings is a strike caller and this is a get away day game in Milwaukee. I think the pitchers will get the edges and there could be a key bat or two missing in the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Charlie Morton is no longer a really good starting pitcher. Morton is fine, but he is past his prime. Morton is a few months away from turning 40. He has a 3.38 ERA, but a 5.29 xERA, 4.10 FIP, and 4.68 xFIP. He has been fortunate so far this season. The Boston lineup is a very good one. Against right handed pitching, Boston is second in the majors in weighted on base average. Boston has scored 7 runs or more in seven of their last nine games.

Nick Pivetta is a below average starting pitcher. Pivetta has been far worse through the course of his career when pitching at night. Pivetta has a 4.07 daytime ERA, but a terrible 5.49 ERA at night (and a 1.437 WHIP). The Braves lineup is one of the best in the majors, and I think he will struggle against them.

Both teams should have plenty of chances to score in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers +1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals are 1-12 in their last 13 games. They continue to be priced like a very good team. St. Louis is now 10-24 on the season. 

Steven Matz is a below average left handed pitcher. The Detroit Tigers are far better against lefties than they are against right handed pitching. The Tigers have a .314 OBP against lefties and just .288 against right handed pitchers. 

Matz has a 6.39 ERA and a 5.32 FIP on the season. He rates in just the 22nd percentile of all pitchers in exit velocity allowed. He is all the way down in the bottom 14 percentile in chase rate as well. 

This is a fade of the Cardinals and I'll go with the run line here. 

Take Detroit +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals offense started the season really slowly, but they have been excellent of late. Kansas City has scored 31 runs in their last four games. They have scored at least six runs in each of those games. 

Oakland's offense isn't good, but they have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last eight games. They are up against Brady Singer in this one. It seems like something is wrong with Singer. He ranks in the bottom one percentile of all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed and hard hit percentage allowed this season. Singer has a 8.49 ERA and a 5.05 FIP (a 7.11 xERA) and the whole season has been a struggle for him.

Ken Waldichuk starts for Oakland, and he has been very poor as well. Waldichuk has a 7.26 ERA and a 7.40 FIP in six starts on the season. The Royals have been much better against left handed pitching than righties so far this year.

The weather here calls for a temperature of around 90 degrees with the wind blowing out about 10 mph which will help the ball carry.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers +1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals are 0-10 in Game One of the series this year. St. Louis has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball (probably the biggest). The Cardinals are laying a huge price here. I'm going to go with the +1.5 line here because I don't trust the Tigers very much. This is primarily a fade of the Cardinals.

Matt Boyd is a mediocre pitcher, but Jordan Montgomery is inconsistent as well. The Cardinals are 8-21 in their last 29 games. They are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. 

The Tigers are decent against left handed pitching, and I'll take them to at least keep this close.

Take Detroit +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays start Alek Manoah in this one. Manoah has been in poor form so far this year. He has a 4.88 ERA and he has been fortunate at that as well. He has a FIP of 5.88 and an xFIP of 5.69. 

Nick Pivetta isn't a pitcher I trust. Pivetta has drastic day/night splits in his career. He has been much worse at night. He has a career day game ERA of 4.07 and a night ERA of 5.50. His WHIP is 1.442 at night which is really poor. Pivetta also has terrible career numbers against this Toronto lineup. A wOBA of .419 for this Blue Jays lineup in a large sample size of 164 plate appearances against Pivetta.

The Red Sox offense is rolling of late. Boston has scored 28 runs in their last four games. They have scored at least six runs in each of those contests. 

Toronto has scored 19 runs in their last three games. The Blue Jays have one of the best lineups in baseball.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Angels ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have been really bad so far this season. They have been burning money for bettors as much as anyone in the early going.

The Los Angeles Angels aren't a really trustworthy team either, but we are getting a nice plus money price on a team with the better starting pitcher here. The Cardinals continue to be priced like a good/very good team and they just aren't showing it.

Patrick Sandoval is an above average starting pitcher. Sandoval ranks in the 96th percentile according to Baseball Savant in hard hit percentage allowed. 

Steven Matz ranks 19th percentile in the majors in exit velocity allowed and 13th percentile in hard hit percentage allowed. Matz has a 6.23 ERA and a 5.31 FIP on the season. 

I think the Angels should be a very short favorite here, and they are a clear underdog.

Take Los Angeles. 

*3 Star Play on Twins -1.5* Brady Singer has been in terrible form of late. Singer has a 6.67 ERA on the season. In his four starts in Minnesota he has a 6.50 ERA so I wouldn't expect a big bounce back start here.

Sonny Gray has been throwing the ball extremely well so far this year. Gray has a sparkling 0.62 ERA and a 2.14 FIP on the season. Gray has been a fast starter year after year. He also has great stats against the Royals current lineup.  He has allowed just a .239 weighted on base average against them. 

Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the majors, while Minnesota is on the rise. 

Take Minnesota -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have hit Kevin Gausman well in the past. This Mariners lineup has a .358 weighted on base average in 78 plate appearances against Gausman. They haven't consistently shown it, but I still think this is a pretty good Seattle offense.

The Blue Jays are unquestionably one of the best offenses in the majors. Toronto has crushed Chris Flexen in the past. Flexen has allowed a .390 wOBA against this Blue Jays lineup in his career. 

Flexen has been absolutely crushed so far this year. He has a 8.86 ERA and a 6.63 FIP on the season. He has allowed 20 runs in his last 12 innings pitched. This Blue Jays lineup isn't the lineup you want to face when you are in terrible form.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are a weak offense on the whole. Miami is 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Marcus Stroman has a 2.17 ERA, and four of his five starts have been very good ones. 

The Cubs are 6th in wOBA against lefties, but they have an extremely high batting average on balls in play which suggests they aren't going to be able to keep this pace in the long run. Jesus Luzardo has allowed just 4 runs in 17 innings pitched at home this year.

Two above average pitchers here and I think we see a low scoring game with both pitchers going pretty deep into the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both pitchers enter this game in great form. Cease has a 2.73 ERA and a 3.68 FIP on the season. McClanahan has a 1.86 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. Both of these guys are on the short list of best pitchers in the league. 

The two offenses have been ice cold of late. Both offenses have been shutout in their last two games. The White Sox have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last seven. The Rays haven't been as good offensively on the road, and they are better against left handed pitching. In this one they are up against an elite right handed starter.

This one should be a tight low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners start Logan Gilbert here. Gilbert has turned into a very solid starting pitcher. He has a 3.57 ERA and a 3.10 FIP so far this year. Gilbert had a 3.20 ERA and a 3.46 FIP last year. He has great control and gets ahead of batters very often. 

Bailey Falter is a middle of the road starter. Falter uses deception as his primary strength, but once batters have seen him a bit he often has trouble. 

The Phillies are a team I still believe is overvalued overall. They just won 3 straight, but that was against the lowly Rockies. The Mariners have underachieved to this point and I'm looking to buy low on them.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chris Sale isn't the same dominant pitcher he was several years ago. Sale is now 34 years old and injuries have slowed him down. He an ERA of 8.00 and a FIP of 5.63 on the season thus far. 

Dean Kremer has a 6.16 ERA and a 6.57 on the year. Kremer has potential, but he is a very inconsistent young pitcher.

Both of these lineups have really hit the opposing pitcher well. Sale has allowed a .349 wOBA against this Baltimore lineup. Kremer has allowed the Red Sox lineup to have a whopping .410 wOBA against him. 

I think this total is set too low given the question marks surrounding the pitchers.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians will start Logan Allen in this one. Allen is one of their top prospects. He has elite strikeout stuff and has been striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings in the minors. Miami has good numbers against lefties early this year, but that is carried by abnormally high batting average on balls in play numbers (BABIP) that aren't sustainable. 

Jesus Luzardo has really fixed his command issues and Luzardo has great strikeout stuff. The Cleveland Guardians have been weak against lefties for three straight seasons. I think he'll give them a lot of trouble here.

Miami has seen its last nine games stay under this total. Cleveland has seen its last five games all stay under the total. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in the last six years. Miller has consistently been a strike caller who will make the zone a bit larger on strike three especially. A big plus for under bettors in general.

Anthony Desclafani starts for the Giants. He is a middle of the road pitcher, but his biggest weakness has always been he gives up too many home runs. Now he is in a great pitcher's park where home runs are as hard to come by as anywhere in Major League Baseball.

Joey Lucchesi returns to start here, and the Giants have been awful against left handed pitching this year. San Francisco has a terrible .271 OBP against lefties so far this season. 

A total this high is a pretty high one for this park as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals host the Texas Rangers in an afternoon game on Wednesday. 

Brady Singer starts for the Royals. Singer is a guy who I think can be good in the long run, but he is in really bad form right now. Singer has pitched 16 innings so far this year and has allowed 14 earned runs. His 7.88 ERA is also supported by a really high 6.07 FIP. Singer is giving up more hard contact this year and pitching with traffic on the bases.

Martin Perez has a 2.87 ERA but a 5.11 FIP. Perez has been pretty fortunate so far this year. 

The weather here is a key as well. A temperature of 78-80 degrees during the game with winds blowing out to center and left field at about 20 mph with gusts to 25 or 30 mph during the game. 

Both offenses have been very unfortunate so far this year according to BABIP numbers. I'll take the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* I think the Atlanta Braves are the best team in the majors at this point. Atlanta doesn't have a single weakness. They have a strong starting rotation with a deep bullpen. They also have a fantastic lineup that is as deep as anyone in baseball. 

Atlanta is good against right handed pitching, but they are elite against left handed pitching. Blake Snell has been very good in the past, but he is currently in very bad form. Snell has terrible stats against this Braves lineup too.

Snell has a 4.14 ERA and a 1.383 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career, which is far worse than his second half numbers. Snell has a 6.92 ERA and a 6.17 FIP so far this season. He has a .485 wOBA allowed in 69 plate appearances against this Braves lineup.

Spencer Strider is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Strider has great road splits in his career.

The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. They are 37-14 in their last 51 games against left handed starters.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has a superb .190 weighted on base average against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are still a light hitting team this year even with some upgrades on offense. Gallon has a career WHIP of 0.95 in the first month of the season.

Sandy Alcantara was hit around in his last outing, but I think he'll bounce back here. Alcantara is still a top ten pitcher in the majors. He has elite strikeout stuff, and the DBacks have a lot of free swingers in their lineup.

I like this one to stay low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Tampa Bay has played 14 games so far this year. The Rays have scored 5 runs or more in 11 of those games. They have scored 7 runs or more in eight of those games. This Tampa Bay offense is on fire with Franco, Arozarena, and Lowe leading the way thus far.

Kikuchi is a below average left handed pitcher. He can look very impressive on a rare occasion, but overall his numbers are bad. Kikuchi puts far too many people on base. The Rays have the power to make him pay for those free passes too. 

Faucher is the opener here for Fleming for the Rays. Fleming has been in bad form this year, and he has given up a lot of hard contact. The Blue Jays lineup is one of the best in baseball, and they will mash left handed pitching again this year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals offense has woke up of late after a terrible start to the season. Kansas City has scored 24 runs in their last 5 games. Kansas City isn't great on offense, but they are better than many think they are after their terrible start to the season.

The Braves have one of the very best offenses in baseball. Atlanta's depth in the lineup is really tough to match.

Brady Singer is a guy I like, but Singer has consistently had slow starts to the season. Singer's ERA is nearly a full run worse in the first half of the season compared to the second half. 

Charlie Morton is far past his prime and one of his weaknesses at this point is his control and the hard contact that he allows. 

The wind will be blowing out at about 12 to 14 mph during this game with warm temperatures too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Griffin Canning returns after missing last year due to an injury. Canning has pitched pretty well in the majors in the past. Canning also pitched very well in the minors in his most recent start. He's up against a weak Nationals lineup here.

Gore isn't a great pitcher, but he has some quality pitches too. Gore should be able to throw enough strikes to get ahead in the count a decent amount of the time here.

This is a get away day game and both of these managers are liable to sit a key bat or two.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here. He has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Eddings is a good under umpire.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* PNC Park has been a park that changes a lot based on the weather. PNC has been a really good over park with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out. This one will be played in those conditions.

Rich Hill is 43 years old. Hill has been a slow starter his entire career and he clearly isn't at the top of his game anymore. The Astros have a lineup that will crush left handed pitching this year. 

Jose Urquidy has been a slow starter too. His worst month of the season in his career has been the first month, and it isn't close. Urquidy has a 1.393 WHIP in the first month of the season. No other month is higher than 1.21. 

Look for both teams to get plenty of scoring opportunities here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kyle Wright has been fantastic in the first month of the season in his career. He is a fast starter. Wright has a 1.18 WHIP in March/April and he averages a 1.263 WHIP for his entire career. Wright has struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings in March/April and his overall career average is 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Wright is up against a Reds offense that is subpar especially away from Great American Ballpark. 

Luis Cessa has a .209 wOBA against this current Braves lineup. It is in a very small sample size, but I think Cessa is at least somewhat underrated as a pitcher. He has solid control.

Ryan Blakeney is behind home plate here and I view him as a pretty good under umpire. The temperatures aren't very warm for this game either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies on Monday night. Steven Matz is in line to get the start for the Cardinals. Matz has been terrible at Coors Field in his career. He has a 9.20 ERA in three starts in Colorado. Against this Rockies lineup, Matz has allowed a ..560 wOBA and a .488 average in 50 plate appearances.

German Marquez has a terrible .426 wOBA against the Cardinals in a pretty big sample size of 105 plate appearances. Marquez has continued to struggle when pitching at Coors Field.

I think both teams get a lot of baserunners on in this one. A back and forth contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees still have an excellent bullpen. Nestor Cortes will start this game too, and Cortes is a very good starter. Cortes has excellent numbers against the Orioles. Cortes has a fantastic .195 weighted on base average allowed in 86 plate appearances against the Orioles. 

Wells has solid stuff, and I think he can become a pretty good pitcher for Baltimore. The Yankees lineup can be a bit inconsistent.

The weather here calls for cool weather and a slight wind in.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire. Miller has the highest strikeout/walk ratio in the majors in the last five years. He is a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brito is a really good young pitcher for the Yankees. He has great stuff and multiple plus pitches. The Orioles do have some free swingers on their team and he could take advantage of that.

Cole Irvin has been a fast starter throughout his career. He isn't a great pitcher, but he doesn't usually hurt himself with a bunch of walks. 

The Yankees bullpen is one of the best in baseball. The Orioles bullpen is improved.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire in this one. The under is 41-15 in his last 56 games behind the plate.

Cool temperatures are in the forecast here with a slight breeze in.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Early in Madison Bumgarner's career he had some terrific numbers against the LA Dodgers. Bumgarner isn't the same pitcher he was six or eight years ago. The Dodgers also have a better lineup than they had back then as well. Bumgarner has pitched poorly against LA the last three years. Bumgarner has also been poor at Chase Field.

Clayton Kershaw has a somewhat pedestrian 3.81 ERA when pitching at Chase Field in his career. Kershaw is still a very good pitcher, but he isn't quite as dominant as he once was. The DBacks offense is a bit underrated in my opinion.

The over is helped by home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez who has been one of the very best over umpires in the league for the last 6 or 8 years. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The Atlanta Braves are a really good team and I won't bet against them many times this year. I still think this is a good spot for St. Louis. The Cardinals are clearly an above average team, and they have lost the first two games of this series at home. There are some very good long term systems regarding mediocre or better teams at home trying to avoid the sweep. These have been particularly strong earlier in the season.

Miles Mikolas is an underrated starting pitcher. He has fared pretty well against the Braves. 

Elder has talent, but he is still inconsistent at this point in his career.

The Cardinals show some pride here in this final game of the series.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane Bieber is still one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. The Oakland Athletics absolutely have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Oakland has scored 2 runs or fewer in three of four games. They then scored 11 in a loss yesterday to the Guardians. I expect a lot more of the very low run totals from the A's offense this year.

The Cleveland Guardians are a team who has drastic lefty/righty splits. The Guardians are very weak against left handed pitching. They face a good young lefty in J.P. Sears here. Sears has good strikeout stuff and I think he will improve this year.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire. He has the highest strike percentage called of any umpire in the last eight years (overall average). He is a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Philadelphia Phillies are a team I'm looking to bet against when I can this season, especially in the early going. The Phillies are going to really miss Hoskins and Harper. This lineup doesn't have the depth they had late last year, and the starting rotation isn't deep after the first two guys. 

The Phillies lost their first two games even with those best pitchers pitching. Now, they turn to Bailey Falter. Falter has been inconsistent and hasn't been very sharp away from home. 

Martin Perez certainly isn't a great pitcher, but he has been a fast starter through his career. The Rangers bullpen is better than last year as well.

I think the Phillies are overvalued in the marketplace right now.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Philadelphia Phillies are without both Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins. Those guys are two massive losses. Philadelphia does pickup Trea Turner, and the top of the lineup still looks great. The Phillies don't have the same lineup depth that they have had in the past. 

The Rangers start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has a tremendous track record in the first month of the season. He is up against Aaron Nola who has been below his average in the first month of the season. 

I think Corey Seager will have a big year for the Rangers and Lowe and Garcia are solid in the middle of the order. 

Favorites and home teams have fared very well on Opening Day in MLB over the last decade. I'll back the Rangers here.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Over* Justin Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA in his career in the World Series. He has the highest ERA of any starting pitcher to throw at least 30 innings in the World Series. Verlander was spotted a lead in game one and couldn't hold it. He hasn't been quite himself since coming back from an injury to his calf late in the season. 

Noah Syndergaard makes the start here for the Phillies. Syndergaard hasn't been that trustworthy this year. He is very capable of giving up that big inning. The Astros have a deep lineup and they can string together hits and keep runners in scoring position throughout. 

Both bullpens have been used quite a bit and that can lead to some issues. They haven't had days off as much here since they had to play Tuesday and Wednesday night after the rain out on Monday. 

Both of these offenses ranked top 8 in the majors in the last 30 days. The Phillies were no hit yesterday, but I think they can bounce back here.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is the best offense in the majors. The Dodgers have a .337 weighted on base average and they are first in the majors in wRC+ as well.

Blake Snell hasn't had a lot of success against this Dodgers lineup. Snell has allowed a .329 wOBA against the lineup he will face here. Snell struggled against the Mets in his first start in the postseason. 

Tony Gonsolin has been really bad (in a fairly small sample size) in the postseason. Gonsolin has a 9.45 ERA in his postseason career. He has a 1.80 WHIP in the playoffs. Gonsolin faces a Padres lineup that is healthy now and with Machado swinging it well and Soto against a right handed pitcher, this is a really dangerous offense.

This is a very low total in a game with a ton of extremely talented hitters. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres certainly improved their lineup during the season. Juan Soto is fantastic and the Padres lineup is pretty deep as well with Cronenworth and Myers toward the bottom of the order proving to be very solid against lefties.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball, and they are particularly good against right handed pitching. The Dodgers have a ridiculously good .340 wOBA against right handed pitching this year. 

Mike Clevinger has been subpar this year. He has had a lot of trouble with injuries, and he has been ill leading up to this start as well. Clevinger faced the Dodgers three times in the regular season this year. He never went more than 5 innings, and he allowed 4 runs or more in every start. The Dodgers should get plenty of scoring opportunities in this one as well.

Julio Urias is a very good pitcher, but he tends to get lifted earlier than most pitchers. The Dodgers bullpen has been inconsistent this season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MLB playoffs get underway with this game in Cleveland. Both of these teams are scrappy teams who have some weaknesses, but they have had successful seasons despite those shortcomings.

Cleveland isn't good against left handed pitching. Cleveland was 27th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitchers this year. Shane McClanahan is a good lefty. 

Tampa Bay was 26th in wOBA overall in the last month of the season. The Rays lack power in their lineup and they have a couple key injuries.

Shane Bieber wasn't quite as dominant this year, but he is an excellent starter who the Rays are likely to have a tough time against.

Both teams have very deep bullpens and they wouldn't be afraid to use them as they come into this one rested.

The weather here calls for a temperature of around 50 degrees with winds blowing in from center field at about 12 mph. The winds do matter quite a bit at this park.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been miserable down the stretch. Cincinnati's lineup is shorthanded and they have scored 3 runs or less in 11 straight games. The Reds have scored 1 run in four of their last six games. 

The Chicago Cubs offense has scored two runs or less in five of their last nine games. The Cubs have a lot of youth in this lineup right now, and it is hard for them to string together big innings.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire for this game. He is one of the best five under umpires in baseball. Cuzzi has a called strike percentage of nearly 66% on the year and a strikeout/walk ratio of higher than 3. He'll help as much as he can here.

The weather in Cincinnati is cool and the ball isn't jumping as it would have a couple months ago.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Corey Kluber comes back to Cleveland to take on his old team. Kluber has been a bit up and down this season. Recently he has had some poor outings, but advanced metrics show it has primarily been poor batted ball luck that is responsible for those poor showings. He actually has a pretty good FIP in recent starts.

Shane Bieber has been throwing it well of late. Bieber is up against a Rays team that isn't a very good offense against right handed pitching.

Both of these teams are really deep and very good in the bullpen. 

The forecast calls for significant wind coming in from Lake Erie during this game. There will be rain as well through some of the day. There is a chance for a delay or even a postponement. If this game is played though, the weather is a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been struggling of late, especially against right handed pitching. The Rays have been held to two runs or fewer in four of their last nine games. 

Cristian Javier has been dealing. Javier has a 2.36 ERA since the All Star Break. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those starts. Javier is striking out 10.29 batters per nine innings. 

Shane McClanahan has been tremendous this year. He has a sparkling 1.50 ERA and a 2.61 FIP in his last four starts. He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Though the Astros do have a very good lineup, McClanahan has done well against them in limited action (.227 wOBA allowed). 

Both teams have very deep and solid bullpens to back up the starters.

Brian O'Nora is the home plate umpire and he ranks in the top ten umpires in the majors in strikes called percentage as well as strikeout/walk ratio. He's a boost to the under's chances here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Orioles ML* I'm very cautious about laying big numbers in baseball, and even this number isn't that big of a number. You'll never see me taking -200 favorites. This is about as high as I'll go in MLB, but I think this number is justified.

The Washington Nationals are 6-22 in Patrick Corbin's starts this year. They are 26-66 in their last 92 vs. a team with a winning record.

Baltimore hasn't been playing particularly well of late, but they did fight back and beat the Nationals last night. The Orioles still have an outside chance at making the playoffs, but they have to get red hot right now. This is a really good opportunity for them to try to get going against both a very weak Nationals team and against a very weak starting pitcher.

Patrick Corbin has an ERA north of 7 since the All Star break. Corbin gives up far too many long balls, and Baltimore has a surprising amount of power.

Tyler Wells is an average starting pitcher, but he is backed by a strong bullpen. The Orioles have the much better offense too.

Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have scored 10 runs in each of their last two contests. The Yankees offense is back in a big way of late. This is still one of the very best lineups in baseball. Nick Pivetta goes against them here, and Pivetta has been smashed by the Yankees in the past. In 86 plate appearances, the Yankees hitters have a whopping .381 wOBA against Pivetta and 7 home runs.

Gerrit Cole has pitched terribly at Fenway Park, especially the last couple years. Cole has a 6.55 ERA in his last four starts at Fenway (last year and this year). This lineup is full of guys who have bothered Cole in his career.

The weather is a big deal at Fenway, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 10 mph here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cal Quantrill has thrown the ball really well of late. Quantrill has a 1.80 ERA in his last six starts. Quantrill has flown under the radar for the most part, but he has been really solid for the Guardians in the stretch run.

Dylan Bundy starts for the Twins, and he has been stronger late in the season as well. Bundy has a 2.17 ERA in his last six starts. For the season, Bundy has been much better when pitching at home as well, and he pitches on his home field here.

The Guardians bullpen has been the single best bullpen in baseball in the past 30 days. Minnesota ranks in the top ten in bullpen FIP and SIERA in that time as well. The bullpens are a big plus here.

The Guardians have seen only 2 of their last 16 games get past 7 runs total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves -1.5* The Atlanta Braves are in a key pennant race. Atlanta is just one game behind the New York Mets in the NL East. They have been catching the Mets for months now, and this Braves offense has been on fire. 

Atlanta ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Braves also rank third in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days overall. The Braves go against an average lefty in Cole Irvin here. Irvin is likely to struggle against this deep Atlanta lineup.

The Oakland A's are worst in the majors by a huge margin in wOBA at home. Oakland has a .262 wOBA when playing at home this year. Oakland's lineup is a bottom two defense in the majors. 

Kyle Wright comes into this game in great form. I expect Wright to pitch well against this Oakland lineup. The Braves also have the bullpen advantage. 

Take Atlanta -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians lost 6-3 in 11 innings against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. That one was a bad beat on the under. Cleveland has now played in 12 straight games that have been at 7 runs or less in regulation. 

Brady Singer has been in great form for the Kansas City Royals of late. Singer has a 2.34 ERA and a 2.92 FIP since the All Star Break. Singer has been at his best when pitching at home. 

Triston McKenzie has a .290 wOBA against this Kansas City Royals in his career. He is backed by the best bullpen in the majors in the last month. He has a 2.24 ERA and a 2.89 FIP since the start of July. 

There will be a slight breeze blowing in from center field during this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have played 11 straight games that have finished at a total of 7 runs or less. Cleveland's starting pitching has been good of late, and their bullpen has been excellent. In the last 30 days, the Cleveland bullpen has a stellar 1.92 ERA. They also rank first in bullpen FIP and SIERA. 

The Seattle Mariners have seen 8 of their last 10 games finish at 7 runs or less. Seattle's bullpen ranks in the top three in the last 30 days in all of the advanced metrics as well. 

George Kirby is a really good young pitcher who has multiple plus pitches. The Guardians lineup isn't nearly as deep as most of the contenders. 

Cal Quantrill has quietly put together an amazing season. Quantrill has a 1.41 ERA and a 2.75 FIP in his last five starts. 

Both of these teams are still playing hard to the finish as they try to get into the postseason. I expect another low scoring contest here.

Take the under.