*3 Star Play on Texas Rangers ML* The Minnesota Twins are a team I believe will play better in the long run, but I think they are overpriced here. Something is wrong with Kenta Maeda. Maeda has some terrible numbers on the year overall, and his last two outings have been his worst.

Maeda's Baseball Savant numbers from 2020 compared to 2021 thus far (100th percentile being the best and 0% the worst)

Average Exit Velocity allowed- 2020- 93% 2021- 22%

Hard Hit Percentage- 2020- 98th percentile 2021- 20th percentile

xERA- 2020- 93% (excellent) 2021- 22nd percentile (terrible)

K Percentage- 2020- 88th percentile 2021- 16th percentile

Texas isn't a good lineup, but they have been scrapping and clawing and staying in games. They are 13-16 overall and 6-7 on the road. 

Minnesota is 10-16 and 5-8 at home. 

Dane Dunning is a highly touted youngster who has impressive numbers on the whole. Dunning has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.31 xERA. His FIP is a tremendous 2.21. 

The Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. 

I understand the Twins being favored here, but this price is far too big for me to pass up.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chi Chi Gonzalez and Merill Kelly both have major blowup potential. These are two guys who let a lot of runners on base on a consistent basis. Gonzalez has been fortunate this year with his ERA. According to Baseball Savant, Gonzalez has an xERA that ranks in the 16th percentile. His K percentage is in the 7th percentile. This is a guy who is capable of getting hit around in a big way at any point.

Merrill Kelly's xERA is 10th percentile and his K percentage is only 9th percentile. Kelly has been knocked around by this Rockies lineup in the past. 

These are two weak bullpens who have been overworked in the last few games. Now, they have starters going who are unlikely to work deep into the game. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jose Berrios has been dealing of late. Berrios has a 3.04 ERA on the year and a stellar 2.21 FIP. Berrios has always been much better when pitching at home. His career wOBA allowed at home is just .286. 

Brad Keller has pitched poorly much of this year, but it will help him to have one of the best under umpires in the majors behind home plate here. 

Phil Cuzzi has a 55.6% under rate in his games behind home plate in his career (459 games). Cuzzi has a very high K/BB ratio. 

The wind here should be factor. Winds of 12-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast to be blowing in from center and left field during this game.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have now played 13 games at home this year. Only two of those games have gone under this total. 

Luis Castillo hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Every metric you look at he simply hasn't been the same as in recent years. There is something wrong with Castillo. I don't know if it is an injury or a bad release point or what, but the differences are drastic. 

Here is a look at a few select stats from Castillo in the last 3 years according to Baseball Savant. On these they are ranked by percentile with 100 percent being the best and 0 the worst.

K Rate- 2019- 81% 2020- 83% 2021- 13%

Average Exit Velocity- 2019- 83% 2020- 87% 2021- 35%

xERA- 2019- 85% 2020- 88% 2021- 33%

The Cubs have been very unfortunate in batted ball luck and their offense should improve with time this season.

Zach Davies has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. Davies has more walks than strikeouts in his first five starts. Davies has gone 4 innings or less in four of his five starts (the last 4). He has a 9.47 ERA and a xERA of 6.20. This Reds offense has been great at home.

Both bullpens are weak and they were used a lot last night. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Target Field is a place where you want to know the weather report. When the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph during the game the over is 74-49 in the last 123 contests. That will be the case for this game. 

Tom Hallion is the umpire behind the plate here, and he has called a far lower percentage of pitches a strike than most umpires so he helps the over here.

Danny Duffy has been good so far this year, but he is clearly due for regression. This is a guy who is past the peak of his career and he has a 0.39 ERA and a xERA of 3.98 this year.

Minnesota's lineup is getting healthier and this team is clearly going to be better offensively than they have been on the season as a whole thus far.

Shoemaker has been a good pitcher late in the season in his career, but in the early going he often struggles. He does have some trouble with the long ball and the wind blowing out here is an issue for him.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have played 12 games at home this year. They have only had two of those games finish under this posted total. 

The weather in this game calls for winds of 13 or 14 mph blowing out during this game. That certainly is a help. 

The Chicago Cubs got Bryant and Baez back in the lineup yesterday, and they put up a big number against Atlanta. Chicago is last in the majors in batting average on balls in play, which means they are clearly due for positive regression as an offense. 

Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't great either. The Cubs do have quite a few guys who are noted for being good against left handed pitching.

Jake Arrieta is expected to start for the Cubs, and he is a clear negative regression candidate. Arrieta has a 2.57 ERA and a xERA of 4.08. His strand rate of runners is too high now, and he isn't generating many swings and misses. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Game of the Week* The Colorado Rockies are now 1-7 away from home on the season. That one win was an extra innings win over the Giants last night. Colorado actually led at one point in that game despite having only one hit vs. six hits for the Giants. 

Colorado did show power in the late innings, but the Rockies were the worst road offense in baseball with Arenado last year and they are even worse this season. Colorado is going to have a lot of games where their offense struggles badly on the road.

German Marquez is a pretty good pitcher, but his numbers against the Giants aren't good. San Francisco's lineup has an impressive .402 weighted on base average against him. Marquez has an ERA of 4.50 at San Francisco too, so it hasn't just been damage done at Coors Field.

Alex Wood is in great form to start the season. Wood has been a streaky pitcher his whole career. He now faces the worst road offense in baseball.

I think the Giants bounce back and win at home here against the lowly Rockies.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros started red hot and then fell apart. They have since started putting things back together again. I still think this is a team that will be very successful on the season overall. Remember, they had a lot of injury and COVID 19 disruptions during their really poor stretch.

Zack Greinke starts here and he has been as solid as ever so far this year. Greinke's advanced metrics look excellent. He has been doing a great job with his command using multiple plus pitches. 

Justin Dunn starts for the Mariners and his walk rate is a major problem. Dunn's control is really poor and the Astros have some high quality hitters in this lineup. I would expect a lot of Astros on the bases here. Dunn has been especially bad in his career in the first half of the season and on the road. 

Greinke has allowed this Mariners lineup to have only a .246 weighted on base average. In 87 at bats, they have only 4 extra base hits (all doubles) against him.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dane Dunning is a good young pitcher. Dunning had a 3.97 ERA and 3.67 xERA last year for the White Sox. He has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.31 xERA this year (a 2.46 FIP). Dunning has a career swinging strike rate of a solid 10.7%. 

Alex Cobb isn't a great pitcher by any means at this stage of his career, but he isn't bad. His advanced metrics show he has been unlucky this season so far. Cobb has a 6.28 ERA and a 3.81 xERA and a 2.53 FIP. 

Dunning is up against a good Angels lineup, but he'll be helped by this ballpark being a really good pitchers park. This stadium is now one of the five best pitcher parks in the majors. It has really suppressed runs last year and so far this season.

Cobb is up against a weak Texas lineup. The Rangers often struggle to string together hits because they just don't have any lineup depth.

Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire and he is behind the dish here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are one of the worst teams in the majors. They haven't won on the road so far this year. They are 0-7 on the road. Six of those seven losses have been by two runs or more. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez has the terrible combination of no swing and miss stuff and some terrible control. He is constantly working with a lot of guys on base. The Giants offense has been better than expected thanks in part to a great start to the season from Buster Posey this year. 

Aaron Sanchez has a stellar 1.83 ERA and a very good xERA of 3.18 on the season. Sanchez has been pitching from ahead in the count much more. The Rockies lineup is very weak and on the road this team is going to have major trouble scoring this year.

Take San Francisco -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals is a mess without Juan Soto. Soto is out for this game. Trea Turner was injured last game as well and he is questionable. If he's out the Nationals are arguably out their top two offensive players. 

Toronto is going with a bullpen game here. The Blue Jays have a deep bullpen. They rank in the top six or eight in the majors in advanced metrics across the board. 

Washington has been shut out in two of their last three games. They have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. 

Max Scherzer starts for the Nationals here. He has been very solid in the early going this season. Scherzer still has elite stuff and the Blue Jays are a team that strikes out quite a bit because they go after a lot of bad pitches. Scherzer should be able to strike out a lot of hitters here.

The under has hit at a little better than 55% in interleague games with a total of 8.5 or higher in the past ten years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* Brandon Woodruff is a top 10 or 12 starting pitcher in the majors. Woodruff has a 1.96 ERA and a 2.03 xERA on the season thus far. His fastball velocity is up from last year, and Woodruff has great control. 

How has Woodruff done against this Cubs lineup? The Cubs lineup has an ugly .147 batting average and a .210 weighted on base average against him. That is in a pretty decent sample size of 125 plate appearances. 

Jake Arrieta has pitched pretty well so far this season, but I don't trust him. Arrieta is 35 years old and is clearly not the pitcher he was a few years ago. Arrieta has a 2.86 ERA this year, but his xERA is a much higher 5.21. 

The Brewers have Wong back in the lineup and though Milwaukee is not great offensively, the Cubs offense isn't very good either. Milwaukee has a big starting pitching edge, and the Brewers have the two best relief pitchers of the two teams as well.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Over* Brady Singer and Matt Boyd both pitched great on Saturday and the final was just 2-1 when these teams met. I think this one will be higher scoring. 

The winds have switched around in a big way for this contest. Comerica Park is one where the weather plays a large role. With winds blowing out, this has been a really good over ballpark. The wind is expected to average about 13 mph out toward left and center field during this game. 

Danny Duffy has a 0.50 ERA this year, but his xERA is 4.33 and his xFIP is 4.04. Duffy has given up a bunch of home runs in recent seasons, and the ball should be flying pretty well here. The Tigers lineup has a .316 batting average and a .380 OBP against him.

Michael Fulmer has looked better this year, but I still don't see him as better than a mediocre pitcher. The Tigers bullpen might be the worst in the majors. The Kansas City lineup is certainly improved, and they should have plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Kansas City Royals have absolutely crushed Matt Boyd in his career. This Royals lineup .360 batting average and a .427 weighted on base average against Boyd. Whit Merrifield is a whopping 25 for 48 against Boyd. Hunter Dozier is 10 for 21. 

Brady Singer is a guy I believe has a pretty high upside. Singer threw the ball really well in his last start. He was the Royals first round draft pick in 2018, and he has very good command of all of his pitches. Singer has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.10 FIP so far this year. 

The Tigers have what is absolutely one of the worst teams in baseball. Kansas City is clearly improved this year. Matt Boyd gets respect from the oddsmakers, but he has struggled mightily against this Royals team in the past. Kansas City has the better bullpen as well.

Detroit is an awful 29-73 in their last 102 home games.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Over* Keeping an eye on batting average on balls in play is important at this stage of the season. This can be a really good measure of which offenses are getting fortunate or unfortunate. 

Which two teams rank as the most unfortunate in batting average on balls in play so far this year? The Yankees and the Indians. Here these two teams are matched up against each other. 

We have two lefties on the mound here. Jordan Montgomery has a career 5.03 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average allowed on the road is an ugly .334. 

Logan Allen has questionable control and that is something that makes me want to bet lower overs with. Allen works himself into too many jams. 

These two have good bullpens, but the starters are subpar. The offenses have been unlucky so far this year. This total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona DBacks ML* The Cincinnati Reds have started the season pretty well, but there are signs of regression for this team. They have the 4th highest batting average on balls in play in the majors. They have a ridiculously high .401 BABIP with men in scoring position. The offense isn't as good as they have looked so far this year. 

The Reds will be without Nick Castellanos as he serves a suspension here. He's a key piece to this lineup.

Merrill Kelly isn't a good pitcher, and it is possible the Reds knock him around. Still, this is a price that I simply can't get to. I think this is a wager that wins 44 or 45% of the time and we are getting a big plus money price.

Tyler Mahle has been much better away from home than at Great American Ballpark in the past. The Reds used their top three relievers late in last night's game that was suspended and that might have them a bit limited here.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have taken the first two games of this series. The public is going to be all over San Diego to avoid the sweep here. San Diego deserves to be the favorite here, but this line is out of control. 

Houser is a decent starter for the Brewers and this Padres lineup is expected to be missing a starter or two on Wednesday as the manager rests some guys during a period where they are getting no days off. 

Lamet starts for the Padres and this is his first start of the season. He struggled in limited action in Spring Training and is recovering from an injury. Lamet has a really high upside, but the books are giving him a ton of respect in this tricky first spot back. He'll be on a pitch count here too.

The Brewers will have their top two bullpen arms ready here since they saved them in a blowout last night. Expect to see Williams and Hader in a tight game. 

I have to grab this big price.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins offense isn't the same without Kepler, Garlick, and Simmons in the lineup. They are on the COVID 19 list right now. Minnesota has scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 7 seven games. In the other two games in that span they scored 3 and 4 runs. This lineup is struggling badly right now.

Frankie Montas has allowed only a .309 weighted on base average at home in his career compared to .344 on the road. Montas has a 3.92 ERA in the first half of the season in his career compared to a 5.29 ERA in the second half. 

Kenta Maeda is a consistent pitcher, and he has been good when his teams are struggling in the past. Maeda has a 3.40 ERA in the 1st half of the second and a 4.29 ERA in the 2nd half. Maeda has been very good so far this year. His command is excellent.

These two played a doubleheader yesterday and I think some starters will get a day off here on get away day. 

The under is 6-0 in Maeda's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 following a loss by his team in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in Montas' last 4 vs. a team from the AL Central.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Hyun Jin Ryu in this one. He has been an underrated starting pitcher for several years in a row. Ryu is very solid. He has excellent control and he does a great job limiting hard contact even on pitches inside the strike zone. 

The Boston Red Sox are first in the majors in batting average on balls in play this year. They are at .333 which is unsustainable on BABIP. They have clearly had some good fortune. Boston is a good offense, but they aren't this good. Their recent hot stretch has this price out of whack in my opinion.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher, but he has been much better in the second half of the season in his career, and he has been far less consistent than Ryu. 

This is a nice buy price on the Blue Jays.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Harvey looked terrible in 2019 and 2020. He's looked slightly better in 2021 in the early going, but he still has a terrible 6.9% swinging strike rate. Harvey has gotten a lot of swings out of the zone in the early going, but I think that will come back to earth going forward. Harvey isn't a good pitcher at this stage of his career.

Nick Neidert might be good in the future, but he hasn't been good so far. He has serious control problems. He also has a whiff rate in the 7th percentage of pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. His xERA is 8.62 this season. Neidert can't be trusted either.

These two offenses have been inconsistent, but this is a low total for these two pitchers. Remember, both of these bullpens behind the starters are weak as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox travel to Cleveland for a big divisional game on Tuesday evening. 

Carlos Rodon pitched a no hitter the last time out against the Indians. I'm certainly not expecting him to be as dominant here, but I think he will pitch well again. Rodon didn't throw a ridiculous amount of pitches in his no hitter (114). Many of the pitchers who have struggled in their next start threw 125 pitches or more in that no hitter. Additionally, Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball (bottom 5). They have struggled with left handed pitching for several years in a row. Rodon has better road numbers in his career vs. at home. 

Zach Plesac was blasted last time out by the White Sox, but I expect better from him here. Plesac has allowed only a .272 OBP at home in his career. Plesac gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't a terrible thing given the weather conditions for this game.

The temperature is expected to drop into the upper 30's during this game. The winds are expected to be blowing in from center field at 10-15 mph. The wind does matter quite a bit in Cleveland.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres start Joe Musgrove here. Musgrove has thrown 19 innings and allowed only 7 hits and one run so far this year. He has 2 walks and 24 strikeouts. Musgrove has been better in March/April than any other month of the season in his career, and it isn't even close. 

The Milwaukee lineup isn't great to begin with, but with Christian Yelich injured they are even weaker. The Padres have the best bullpen in the National League to back up Musgrove as well. It should be tough for Milwaukee's offense in this one.

The Padres lineup isn't totally healthy either. They are up against a top 10 pitcher in the big leagues here in Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff has elite strikeout stuff and has very solid control as well. San Diego has scored 3 runs or less in half of their games so far this season.

Two good bullpens and two excellent starters.

The under is 9-0 in Woodruff's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in San Diego's last 6 as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under*  The Cleveland Indians have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Cleveland does still have a very good pitching staff. In fact, 11 of Cleveland’s first 15 games have stayed under this low total. 

Cincinnati has scored a bunch of runs this year. However, the Reds have unsustainable numbers when it comes to batting average on balls in play, and offensive production with runners in scoring position. The Reds will face one of the top three pitchers in all of baseball here. Shane Bieber is a strikeout machine, and he still has amazing control. Mike Moustakas has missed the last two games and is considered doubtful for this game due to an illness. 

Wade Miley will pitch for the Reds. In 2021, Miley has allowed only 4 hits in 11 innings pitched and has yet to allow a run this season. The Indians have struggled against left handed pitching for several years and now they are without Francisco Lindor. 

Ben May is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently called more strikes than the league average.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The St. Louis Cardinals start Carlos Martinez here and he has been terrible both last year and in his first two starts of this season. Martinez had a swinging strike rate of just 8.0% last year and only 9.4% so far this year. He had a 9.90 ERA last year and an xERA of 5.97. He has an ERA of 6.30 so far this year with an ugly xERA of 8.97. He hasn't faced great lineups in his first two starts of the year either.

The Phillies have been slumping lately, but Philadelphia clearly has a good lineup. They have a strong middle of the order and the bottom of the order is much stronger than it was a couple years ago as well.

Zach Eflin has been very solid so far this year. Eflin also has drastic splits in his career. He is much better early in the year. Eflin has a stellar 2.96 ERA and .265 OBP allowed in March/April in his career. He has also been much better when pitching at home. He has had an ERA and an xERA under 4 both last year and so far this season. Eflin has a solid 11.2% Swinging strike rate.

Take the Phillies here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have a top five offense in the majors. They started the year slowly, but they have been rounding into form of late. Atlanta has a very low .241 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is 27th in the majors and there is positive regression coming for Atlanta in the batted balls area.

Miami ranks 19th in batting average on balls in play. The Marlins don't have a great offense by any means, but it is good enough. They looked great on Tuesday and I think they'll have some chances in this one too.

Atlanta's bullpen is way down from where it was a year ago. They lost their top two relievers from last year and that is going to hurt quite a bit. It will force them to win more high scoring games.

Neidert starts for the Marlins and his minor league numbers are very mediocre. He has control problems and I don't trust guys who enter the big leagues with control problems, especially against really good lineups.

Alfonso Marquez is the umpire here. The over is a whopping 36-13 in his last 49 games behind the plate. It isn't just a fluke either, his strikes called percentage is the lowest in the majors during that time.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense may be better this year, but they aren't nearly as improved as they have looked so far this year. The Reds have a ridiculous .449 OBP with men in scoring position so far this year. The team in third in OBP with men in scoring position is at .388 so far this year. Regression is coming for the Reds. They are also in a pitcher friendly park here. 

Luis Castillo had a bad start in game one of the season, but he bounced back with a great start in game two. He is still a very good pitcher, and I expect a nice season from him. 

Kevin Gausman has really reinvented himself with the Giants. Gausman has always had a great splitter, but his secondary pitches have been much better of late. His swinging strike rate is excellent and this Reds team has several guys who are going to strike out a lot.

There were only 7 hits in their game last night. This one should be another low scoring contest.

The under is 8-0 in the Giants last 8 games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane Bieber is a top five pitcher in the majors. Lucas Giolito is a top six or seven pitcher in the majors. These are two guys with multiple elite pitches and excellent command.

The Indians have a bottom five offense in baseball. While the White Sox do have a good offense, it isn't as good now with Jimenez out of the lineup. Both of these pitchers are great at missing bats, and the ball isn't flying as well in Chicago now with temperatures in the upper 40's during this game. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this game. Miller has been one of the two or three best under umpires in the majors in his career. He has consistently rung up batters at a much higher rate than average. If Bieber and Giolito are consistently getting the edges called more than normal here, we could see a very high strikeout total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs offense has been terrible this year. They won't be this bad all year, but they have some awful numbers against Brandon Woodruff and I think it will be hard for them to turn it around here. 

Kyle Hendricks has been a steady strong performer for the Cubs for many years and I expect the same from him again this year. Hendricks doesn't give up many free passes and he limits hard contact.

While sometimes too much can be made of batter vs. pitcher numbers, I do pay attention when there is a large sample size. Both of these pitchers have shut down the opposition. 

Hendricks has allowed a .192 batting average and a .228 weighted on base average against this Brewers lineup in 172 at bats. Woodruff has allowed a .158 batting average and a .240 wOBA against this Cubs lineup in 95 at bats. 

Mike Estabrook is the home plate umpire here and he is a top ten under umpire in the majors.

The under is 45-17-1 in the last 63 meetings between the Cubs and the Brewers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies start German Marquez here. Marquez has really struggled at Coors Field in the past few seasons, but he has been great away from home. Marquez has a stellar 0.99 WHIP and a 3.42 ERA on the road since the start of the 2019 season. In 3 starts at Oracle Park in San Francisco (20 innings pitched) he has a 1.35 ERA. Marquez has fantastic control, and he should pitch well here.

Anthony DeSclafani starts here for the Giants. The Rockies offense is far weaker than it has been in recent season. Colorado perennially finishes in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They might finish in the bottom three this year. This is a weak offense. DeSclafani looked good in his first start and pitching in Oracle Park should help him.

The under is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 as an underdog. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* If you are looking for an over in Major League Baseball, you won't find a better umpire to have behind the home plate than Alfonso Marquez. Marquez is behind the dish for this game. 

The over went 25-8 in Marquez's games behind the plate in 2019. The over was 9-5 in his games last year. The over is 1-0 in his games this year. It isn't just that the games are going over though. Marquez has the lowest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the league in the last three seasons. 

Ian Anderson and Zach Eflin are both young pitchers with a lot of potential, but they face very good lineups here. I think both the Phillies and Braves are top eight offenses in the majors. The Braves haven't looked like it so far this year, but they will turn things around. 

Both Philly and Atlanta have very deep lineups. The guys at the bottom of the order are very capable of hurting you.

The Phillies bullpen is some better this year, but it is definitely still a relative weakness. The Braves bullpen is worse after they lost Greene and Melancon. 

The Braves offensive struggles out of the gate have this number set too low. Marquez being behind the plate is a nice bonus.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff. He gives up a lot of hard contact. He also puts a lot of baserunners on via the walk. 

The Giants had a very good offense at home last year, and I think they'll be solid again this year. Gonzalez is unlikely to be able to navigate through this lineup without trouble.

The Colorado Rockies have been a terrible offense away from home in recent seasons, and now their roster is much worse. I see no reason to expect this offense to be good away from Coors this year.

The Rockies also lack bullpen depth, and Gonzalez usually doesn't work deep into the game.

Logan Webb is a decent starter who should be able to slow down this Rockies lineup.

Take the Giants -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mets start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has been dominant everywhere, but he has been especially amazing when pitching at home and in day games. How good has he been?

Degrom has an ERA of 1.94 in his last 40 starts at Citi Field. He has a WHIP of 0.889 or lower in each of his last three seasons at home. He has an ERA of 1.63 or lower in day games in all but three of his seasons in the majors. He has an ERA of 2.25 or lower in all but one year in the majors in day games.

He is at Citi Field here with cool conditions against a weak Marlins offense. I would expect a great showing from Degrom.

Trevor Rogers has very good stuff and he is a lefty with potential for the Marlins. The Mets have a lineup that should hit right handers better than lefties this year, as they did a year ago. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics no longer have a dominant bullpen. Oakland starts Cole Irvin here, and I don't think he is a big league level starting pitcher. Irvin was hit hard by Houston in his first start and I think Houston has a lot of success again here. 

Houston scored 8 runs or more in each of the four games in Oakland in their 4-0 sweep. All four of those games went over the total. This Astros lineup is better than they showed last year, and I think they'll be one of the best in baseball this year.

Javier is only a mediocre pitcher for the Astros. Oakland's lineup is at least league average. The Athletics have a brutal .224 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is bound to positively regress toward the mean.

If they do leave the roof open here (probable) the wind is blowing out 11 mph at gametime. That is a nice bonus.

The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the best players in all of baseball. The Padres lineup is still pretty good without him, but there is a significant drop off. He is the real catalyst for this lineup.

Kevin Gausman pitched very well last year for the Giants. Gausman has improved his command and sequencing. While he isn't a top pitcher by any means, he is a solid option.

Blake Snell is capable of dominating at any time. Snell moved from the AL to the NL and being in a pitcher's park he should have some very nice numbers this year. This Giants lineup is weaker than league average. Snell is backed up by an amazing Padres bullpen that has great depth.

I would have thought the under was a decent play with Tatis Jr in the lineup, and without him I think this number is too high. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Phillies are a team I felt was underrated before the season. They are off to a great start. It's a long season, but I think Philadelphia really upgraded their bullpen which was a huge problem last year. They have a top five or six offense in the National League as well. Their starting pitching is good at the top, but it is questionable at the bottom of the rotation. 

Chase Anderson gets a chance here on the mound for Philadelphia. The Mets just played their first game yesterday after the COVID outbreak in Washington canceled their first series. The Mets had some poor at bats in that game. Anderson has historically been a guy who starts fast and struggles later in the season. He has a great changeup and I think he can have some success in this game.

Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, but he was out all of 2020 and I think there is a lot of unknown surrounding how he'll do right off the bat in this season. Stroman has been far better later in the season. The first couple months have been his weakest historically. 

This is a game that I feel should priced at about -105 both ways on a dime line. I'll gladly take the plus money price.

The Mets are 4-12 in their last 16 games in Philadelphia.

Take the Phillies. 

*3 Star Play on Royals -1.5* The Texas Rangers have what I believe is the worst roster in the American League. Jordan Lyles had a 7.02 ERA last year. His FIP was 5.95 so he was very bad all the way around. Lyles doesn't pitch very deep into the game. The Texas bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. 

Lyles is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Kansas City has improved power this year in their lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing out 17 mph during this game.

Brady Singer is a young pitcher I'm pretty high on. Singer is an extreme ground ball pitcher and the Royals have a solid defense. With the winds blowing out on a warm day in Kansas City, I would certainly prefer to side with a good ground ball pitcher.

I think Kansas City is a team with some upside this year, and I think Texas could have an extremely ugly season.

Getting plus money on the run line here is a good price.

Take Kansas City -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians offense is one of the bottom five in the majors. Tarik Skubal has a lot of promise for the Tigers. He has multiple plus pitchers where he'll be able to generate a lot of swings and misses. The Indians are likely to struggle against left handers even more than right handers this year as well.

Aaron Civale is a guy I really like. Civale limits hard contact and has elite control. Civale averaged less than 2 walks per nine innings a year ago. He has raised his velocity in the Spring this year, and I think he has some nice upside. 

Detroit's offense is one of the worst in baseball as well. This is a lineup full of guys who swing and miss a lot. It is tough for them to string together big innings.

The weather is still cool and there is little wind in the forecast for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros offense has been great in the first couple games of the season. They had quite a few guys who underachieved last year, and I do expect a bounce back for this Astros offense. This lineup still has a lot of depth and they are really dangerous.

Cole Irvin pitched well in Spring Training for the Athletics, but I don't like to make too much of those results. Irvin has thrown 45 and 1/3 innings in the majors in the regular season. He has a 6.75 ERA and a terrible 1.54 WHIP. Oakland took a flier on him, and while he was good in the Spring, I certainly don't trust him very much. 

The A's no longer have a dominant bullpen as they have had in past seasons. They don't even have a bullpen advantage over the Astros anymore. Hendriks was a big loss for the A's.

Sean Murphy is banged up for the A's and he may miss another game here.

Lance McCullers can be inconsistent, but he is a much better pitcher than Irvin, and the Astros have the better lineup.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zack Wheeler had a really solid season for the Phillies last year. Wheeler induced a lot of soft contact on the season. He doesn't give up many free passes either. 

Charlie Morton's velocity was up a lot in Spring Training. That's a great sign for a guy who was really good for several years in Tampa Bay. He had a down year last year, but I think he should bounce back this year.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here and he is the best under umpire in the majors. His called strike percentages are consistently the highest in the majors. 

Take the under here on a chilly day in Philly. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros are the team to beat in the American League West in my opinion. Oakland isn't a bad team, but I do think the A's are overvalued by the marketplace right now.

Houston still has a tremendous lineup. In fact, I see a bounce back as likely for many of the Astros hitters in the middle of the order. Bregman certainly got off to a great start in game one. 

Lazardo has high upside for the A's, but he has been wildly inconsistent in his young career. This isn't a guy I'd want to be laying -145 with against a team as good as the Astros.

Oakland has had a dominant bullpen in recent years, but they are only mediocre now. Hendriks is a key loss for them. 

In a game that I feel should be lined right around -110 for the A's, I'll gladly take the Astros at this big of a plus money number.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on Angels ML* The White Sox are a team that I believe is a little bit overvalued as we start off the season. Chicago is a good team, but they have to prove they are elite. 

Heaney is a good starter, and the Angels are clearly much better offensively now than they were a couple years ago. Anthony Rendon is great support in the lineup for Mike Trout. David Fletcher is a good leadoff hitter. This might be the best lineup in baseball from #1 through #4 in the order. 

The White Sox are without star hitter Eloy Jimenez. I would argue he has about as much upside as any youngster in baseball. His power in the middle of the lineup will be missed. 

Dallas Keuchel is a good pitcher, but he isn't the dominant pitcher he was a few years ago.

The White Sox have made a habit out of losing on the West Coast in recent years. Chicago is 6-23 in their last 29 games in Los Angeles. They have failed on the left coast in general.

Take the Angels. 

*3 Star Play Under* The word from Spring Training is this year the baseball is a bit more "dead" than it was a year ago. Many are expecting a bit less in the way of scoring. 

Kenta Maeda broke out last year in a big way. Maeda had a 2.70 ERA and a 2.63 xFIP on the season. The Twins pitching coaches helped him with his sequencing a lot. 

Brandon Woodruff might be a top ten starter in the majors at this point. He is at least a top 15 guy. Woodruff has a great swinging strike rate, and he still has a low walk rate. 

The Twins have an above average bullpen. The Brewers have a top four bullpen in baseball. 

I see a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw here. Kershaw has a 4.31 ERA in the postseason in his career, and it isn't a small sample size anymore. Kershaw is still a good pitcher, but he isn't what he once was. He's backed by a Dodgers bullpen that clearly isn't as deep as the Tampa Bay bullpen. 

Tampa Bay was 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Tampa Bay is a much better team against lefties than righties. The Rays have been overlooked most of the season. They have several things going for them. Tampa Bay is amazing on defense (easily the best in the majors). They have the deepest bullpen in baseball. They have who I believe is the best manager in baseball in Kevin Cash.

Tyler Glasnow has elite stuff. As long as he can keep his control and not walk too many guys here, I think he has a decent chance of slowing down the Dodgers.

This is a price play as well. I think this is a 50/50 game, but we are getting a huge plus money price.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Houston Astros have found ways to lose the first two games in this series despite the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays haven't hit the baseball well at all yet. 

Both Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. were tremendous for the Astros. I don't think Jose Urquidy will be that good. Urquidy had a 2.73 ERA this year, but a whopping 5.41 SIERA. All of his advanced metrics scream that he is due for regression. Urquidy isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't particularly good either. He didn't pitch well against Oakland in his first playoff appearance. 

Urquidy doesn't pitch deep into games either, and the Astros have had a multitude of bullpen injuries this year. Houston now has a middle of the road bullpen.

Tampa Bay starts Ryan Yarbrough here. It is a small sample size (49 plate appearances), but he has held the Astros to a .245 OBP. Yarbrough is 6'5 and his high release point can be tough to figure out. The Rays have arguably the deepest bullpen in baseball. They rank third in bullpen ERA this year. This is their big advantage over the Astros in this series.

Houston ranked 22nd in wOBA against lefties this year. The Astros have hit better in the playoffs thus far, but they have the much worse defense and much worse bullpen.

This is a short price here on the better team.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees lineup got healthy at the right time of the year. With everyone ready to go, this is a scary good lineup. New York is averaging 9 runs per game through their first four games in the playoffs. Stanton is absolutely crushing the baseball, and there isn't an easy out in this lineup.

Charlie Morton was a little shaky this season. He certainly has good stuff, but he isn't consistent and he'll have to be consistently tremendous to slow down this Yankees lineup. Morton has allowed the Yankees lineup a .349 weighted on base average in his career. 

The Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka who was really bad in his first playoff outing. Tanaka has allowed a .309 wOBA against this Rays lineup. Tampa Bay's offense is better than most realize, and the Rays should get plenty of scoring chances here.

Mark Carlson is a clear over umpire based on his strikes called percentages in recent years, and he is behind home plate for this one.

The ball has really been flying well in the playoffs, and I'll take the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Trevor Bauer has been one of the top two or three pitchers in baseball this year. If you are going to give me one of the best pitchers in baseball at a nice plus money price, I have to at least consider it.

Max Fried starts for the Braves, and Fried has actually been dealing with an ankle injury. He's off his normal rest time, and he still isn't 100 percent healthy. 

Bauer has a 1.73 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, and a 3.26 xFIP. Fried has a 2.25 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, and a mediocre 4.05 xFIP. Fried is definitely a quality pitcher, but he isn't on Bauer's level.

The Braves have a clear advantage offensively, but it isn't big enough to have them favored by this kind of number against an elite starting pitcher.

Additionally, the Reds come into this game with a lot of momentum. Cincinnati underachieved for much of the season, but finished the year playing very well. Atlanta is more banged up than is Cincinnati.

I'll take the plus price.

Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Oakland Athletics aren't the same team without Matt Chapman at third base. Chapman is the team's best hitter and he is their best fielder as well. Their upside is clearly much lower without him healthy. 

The Chicago White Sox absolutely crushed left handed pitching this year. They had the second highest weighted on base average in the majors against lefties. They had easily the highest ISO against lefties, so they hit for power really well against lefties. 

Jesus Luzardo starts here for the Oakland A's. He's a quality lefty who has excellent stuff, but doesn't have much experience. Luzardo's numbers for the season overall are mediocre. I don't like this matchup for him.

Lucas Giolito had an ugly first start to the season, but from the second start of the year forward he really threw the ball well. Excluding his first start, he had a 2.75 ERA and a 2.77 FIP. 

The White Sox clearly have the much stronger lineup here, and Giolito has been the better starting pitcher as well. 

I'll lay the short price.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd starts here against the Kansas City Royals. He shut them out last time against them, but this lineup has crushed him in his career overall. The Royals have a whopping .402 weighted on base average in 190 plate appearances against Boyd.

Boyd's numbers this year are far worse across the board than last year. He has given up a lot more hard hit batted balls. He is giving up home runs in bunches. That doesn't bode well for him here with the weather forecast of temperatures in the 80's and wind blowing out 15-20 mph. The ball will carry well in KC on Saturday.

Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals, and he hasn't pitched above Single A until this month. He has a 3.46 ERA, but his FIP is 7.03 so he has been very fortunate.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play on Oakland* The Los Angeles Dodgers just clinched the best record in the National League last night and the NL West title. The day after clinching and especially when they have the best record in the league wrapped up, many teams will sit out several key starters. I think the Dodgers will do the same here.

Oakland has more to play for than the Dodgers do right now. The A's also have a very good lefty in Sean Manaea starting in this one. Manaea has a 2.45 ERA and a 2.64 FIP in his last six starts. 

The Dodgers are elite against right handed pitching, but they have been no better than mediocre against lefties this season. 

Julio Urias is a quality lefty for the Dodgers as well, but he hasn't pitched very deep into games. I'm not sure the Dodgers will be looking to use their top bullpen options in this one.

The price is far too big considering the situation in this one.

Take Oakland. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox are 24-9 in their last 33 games overall. This team is playing some of the best baseball in the majors. They are coming off a loss last night, and I think we get a better effort from them here. They are 17-8 in their last 25 road games. They are 4-1 in their last 5 following a loss.

The Indians will have a bullpen game here with Cal Quantrill set to start this one. The Indians bullpen actually ranks 19th in the majors in ERA in the last month, and they have struggled quite a bit against top offenses. The White Sox are certainly a top offense.

Reynaldo Lopez is admittedly tough to trust all that much, but at this price it makes it much easier to take a chance. Additionally, the White Sox bullpen has been one of the top five in the majors in the last month. 

Take Chicago here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox start Reynaldo Lopez here. Reynaldo Lopez has been extremely shaky this year (and last for that matter). He has poor control and can really work himself into trouble and big innings for the opposition. 

In Lopez's last 10 starts, only one game hasn't gotten to a total of 8 runs (and that one was 7 runs). Five of the ten games have gotten to at least 11 runs. 

Cal Quantrill is slated to start this bullpen game for the Indians, and he's up against a very good White Sox offense. The White Sox should create plenty of scoring chances here against an Indians bullpen that has been in poor form of late. 

This total is set too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres start Mike Clevinger here. Clevinger is coming off an outing where he pitched 7 innings and allowed no runs against the Giants. Clevinger now faces a below average Seattle Mariners offense in Petco Park, which is still a very good pitchers park. 

Clevinger is backed by a great Padres bullpen. They have the best FIP of any bullpen in the last month. This is a deep bullpen that has been throwing the ball extremely well.

Justus Sheffield gets the start for the Mariners. Sheffield is a talented lefty who struggles at times to find the strike zone, but he has electric stuff and has a good swinging strike rate. 

The Padres are a very good offense, but they have been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Eric Hosmer is also out with an injury right now. 

Additionally, Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this one. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years in Major League Baseball. He's a guy I want behind the plate if I'm betting an under.

The Padres have held their opponent to one run or less in five of their last ten games. The Mariners are averaging just 2 runs per game in their last four contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees are absolutely on fire on offense right now. New York has scored 20 runs, 13 runs, and 10 runs in their last three games. The Yankees have only scored less than 6 runs twice in their last eight games.

Now the Yankees take on Martin Perez, who they have absolutely crushed. The Yankees lineup has a whopping .513 weighted on base average against Perez. Perez is a guy who walks too many batters and doesn't get enough swinging strikes. It's hard to see him having success here. 

Jordan Montgomery is a middle of the road lefty, and the Red Sox lineup still hits lefties well. Boston ranks in the top 8 offenses in the majors in the past two weeks overall.

The Yankees and Red Sox bullpens have both been bottom ten bullpens in the last 14 days. Even if the runs aren't there early on, there should be scoring chances later in the game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds have underachieved all season long until their last few contests. Cincinnati is finally starting to hit a little bit. The Reds bullpen is pitching much better as well.

Luis Castillo is on the hill for the Reds here. Castillo has been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season than the first half in his career thus far. He has allowed a .305 weighted on base average in the first half of the season in his career. He has allowed a .278 wOBA in the second half of the season. In September/October specifically, Castillo has a spectacular 2.48 ERA and has allowed only a .239 wOBA in his career.

Castillo has allowed only 9 hits and 3 runs in his last 15 innings pitched. He is rounding into form of late. He faces the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching this year. In fact, the Pirates have the worst wOBA against righties by more than 20 points this year. 

The Pirates bullpen has a ton of injuries now and Brubaker hasn't gone 6 innings in a start all year thus far. 

The Pirates have lost 7 straight games and they have lost 6 of those 7 by two runs or more.

Take Cincinnati -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers offenses aren't good against right handed pitching. Fortunately, they will be up against left handed pitchers here

Kansas City ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. The Royals rank 13th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Detroit ranks 27th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Tigers rank 5th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

The Royals offense has been on fire of late. Kansas City has scored an average of 7.33 runs per game in their last six games. 

The Tigers have allowed 12 runs or more in three of their last six games. Their bullpen has been the worst in baseball in the last couple weeks.

Boyd has gotten much worse this year and the Royals have a .413 wOBA against him. The Tigers have a .311 wOBA against Duffy.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners won big last night as a big underdog for us, and I'll back them again in a similar spot here. 

This is far more a fade of Arizona than me wanting to back Seattle. Arizona is 4-19 in their last 23 games. They are laying -150? Come on. Luke Weaver is a little more talented than Justin Dunn, but Weaver has been extremely shaky this year. I feel like you could only justify this price if the starting pitcher for Arizona was Jacob Degrom or someone of that level. 

Arizona appears to have totally mailed it in. They have nothing to play for at all. While Seattle's chances of making the playoffs aren't good, they have played well enough lately to have a chance. 

The DBacks offense is without Ketel Marte (it's best hitter in my opinion) due to an injury. 

This is a 50/50 type game for me, and we are getting a price that is far bigger than +100. We'll back Seattle as a big dog again on Sunday.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle ML* I like Zac Gallen a lot, but this price is out of control. I have to back the Mariners here. Justus Sheffield has been excellent in 4 of his last 5 starts. 

Sheffield walks a lot of batters, but the DBacks get the third fewest walks against lefties of any team in the majors. Arizona ranks dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year.

Gallen is likely to throw a good game as he usually does here, but the DBacks bullpen isn't any good. Additionally, Ketel Marte is on the injured list now, and he is the DBacks most consistent hitter.

Arizona is 4-18 in their last 22 games. Do we really think Arizona should be laying this kind of ridiculous price? Seattle has been playing quality baseball, and at this price they are more than worth the chance.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Erick Fedde here. There aren't many starting pitchers in baseball that I rate lower than Fedde right now. Fedde has a 5.29 ERA, and he has been very fortunate. Fedde has a 5.88 SIERA and a whopping 7.14 FIP. This guy has more walks than strikeouts through 32 and 1/3 innings. That's difficult to do. More than 40% of his batted balls have been classified as hard hit by Fangraphs. 

Fedde goes up against an Atlanta Braves offense that is first in the majors in every offensive category in the last couple weeks. The Braves have scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last ten games, and a couple of those games were double headers (7 innings). This lineup is on fire and Fedde isn't likely to slow them down.

Josh Tomlin has pitched ok for the Nationals, but he is aging and his stuff is mediocre at best. The Nationals actually rank 10th in wOBA in the last 14 days, and they have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians start Aaron Civale here. Civale has great control. He walks only 1.5 batters per nine innings pitched. He also has more than 10% swinging strikes so far this year, which is a solid number. The Kansas City Royals haven't faced Civale yet, and I think that gives him the advantage against the light hitting Royals offense.

Kansas City ranks 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This team has been decent against lefties, but they really struggle against right handed pitching. 

Cleveland ranks 22nd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Brady Singer is a highly touted right handed prospect for the Royals. Singer has had some difficulty in his last couple starts, but those were against the great White Sox lineup. The Indians haven't been very good offensively this season.

The weather here is a plus as well. Cool temperatures in Cleveland with a wind blowing in at 12 or 13 mph through this game definitely is helpful to an under.

Mike Estabrook is the umpire here and he ranks in the top ten umpires in baseball in percentage of pitches called a strike. A solid under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has heated up of late. The Rockies have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games. The San Diego Padres have been one of the best offenses in baseball all season. San Diego is more than capable of putting up a huge number on their own. The Padres have scored 10 runs or more in seven games since August 17. 

Antonio Senzatela isn't a guy I trust. Senzatela allows far too much hard contact. The Rockies bullpen is running on fumes now after Chi Chi Gonzalez was torched and the bullpen had to be in for the whole game yesterday. 

Zach Davies doesn't get many swings and misses, and the Rockies offense has seen a lot of him. The Padres bullpen hasn't been nearly as good as it was expected to be this season.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire here. He has called the smallest percentage of pitches a strikes of any umpire in the majors in the last few seasons. The over is 33-11 in his last 44 games behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has thrown at least 6 innings in each of his last seven starts. He hasn't allowed any more than 2 runs in any of those starts. In his last four starts combined, he has allowed a grand total of three runs. Gallen is an elite young pitcher and his stuff is tremendous.

Kevin Gausman's slider is a tough pitch to hit and this Diamondbacks offense has really been scuffling of late. They are struggling to string together hits and they have been playing a lot of youngsters who are unproven in their lineup.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. Miller's strikeout/walk ratio is the second highest in the majors in the last five years. He consistently is a strike caller.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Colorado Rockies upset the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-2 on Saturday night. I think the Dodgers are in a great spot to get back on the winning side in a big way here.

Ryan Castellani was terrible in Triple A last year. He was fortunate in his first couple big league starts this year, but his advanced metrics suggest it can't keep going like this. Castellani has 6.23 FIP and more than 58% of his batted balls have been classified as hard hit according to Fangraphs. He'll be used as an opener here and he'll be followed up by Chi Chi Gonzalez. Gonzalez is worse than Castellani.

Gonzalez is a guy I've made a lot of money fading in the past, and I'm not stopping here. Gonzalez has terrible control and he puts himself in a jam seemingly constantly. Simply put his stuff isn't very good (not big league quality) and he doesn't even control it well.

The Dodgers are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching and they face two weak right handed pitchers in this one.

Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers and he has above average stuff and he's facing a Rockies team that ranks in the bottom five offenses in the majors when on the road.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The San Francisco Giants have outperformed my expectations in a big way this year. The Giants lineup has been way better than I expected. They have been particularly good against left handed pitching. 

The Giants are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. San Francisco has hit for power against lefties as well (6th in ISO). Alex Young is a middle of the road lefty at best and I expect the Giants to create plenty of scoring opportunities here.

The Diamondbacks bullpen was never a strength this year, but they traded away multiple guys who were key to this bullpen in the last few years. Arizona has a 5.74 ERA in the last 14 days from their bullpen pitchers. The Giants bullpen has been much improved of late (2.75 ERA in the last 14 days).

The DBacks have nothing to play for at all. Arizona is 2-14 in their last 16 games. They are 0-9 in their last 9 vs. a right handed starter. 

Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star MLB Top Total of the Week* The Colorado Rockies start German Marquez here. Marquez has allowed a .343 weighted on base average to the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Marquez has a 10.13 ERA and a 5.57 FIP in his last three starts, so he enters this game in bad form as well.

The Dodgers lineup is a great one. They have been particularly good at home offensively. The depth of this lineup is tough for many pitchers to handle. 

Colorado's bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen in baseball, and the Dodgers could easily add on against this Rockies bullpen.

Tony Gonsolin is due for some regression. He has a 0.51 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 4.11 and his SIERA is 4.08. Gonsolin is a good pitcher, but he isn't this good. 

The weather is a big factor here too. The game time temperature is expected to be 105 degrees. That's one of the hottest temperatures you will ever see in Los Angeles. The ball was carrying very well on Friday night at Dodger Stadium, and it will be even hotter for this one. 

Finally, Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire for this game. Marquez is a great over umpire. He has called the fewest strikes of any umpire in the majors in the last three years. The over is a whopping 33-10 in his last 43 games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* The line has moved in a big way toward the Marlins, and that makes me take the much better team here.

Pablo Lopez has been terrific for the Marlins. This is certainly not a fade on him. It's a fade on the Marlins bullpen (which has been a bottom 5 bullpen in baseball) and the Miami hitters. Miami ranks 4th worst in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitchers.

Josh Fleming has good control and allows a lot of soft contact. Fleming is backed by an excellent bullpen for Tampa Bay. 

Tampa Bay is 38-14 in their last 52 vs. a right handed starter. Miami is 18-42 in their last 60 game against a team with a winning record. 

I'll lay the short price here.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* Austin Voth enters this game with a ridiculous 14.90 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 7.79 FIP in those starts. Voth has allowed 16 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. He goes up against an Atlanta offense today that is 3rd in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. In his last start against Atlanta he allowed 9 hits and 5 runs in only 4 innings pitched.

Tommy Milone starts here for the Atlanta Braves. Milone has a 7.90 ERA and a 7.09 FIP in his last three starts. He clearly comes into this one in very bad form as well. Washington hasn't hit right handers well this year, but they have torched lefties like Milone. Washington is second in the majors with a .374 wOBA against left handed pitching.

This is a 7 inning contest which is why the total is lower than you would expect with these pitchers and lineups. 

The weather here is 90 degrees and wind blowing out 8-10 mph. That helps the over as well.

Look for both starters to struggle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Toronto* The Toronto Blue Jays start Taijuan Walker in this one. Walker has been trending in the right direction of late. His exit velocity and hard hit rate on batted balls allowed is easily the best of his career thus far this season. He is now pitching for a contender and that has him excited about the rest of the year.

The Boston Red Sox are already talking about next year. Who can blame them? This is a short season and the Red Sox have dug too deep of a hole to contend in any way. Martin Perez starts in this one and he has had a blister issue of late. Even when he is completely healthy, Perez isn't very good. All of his advanced metrics are worse this year than last year. His velocity and his spin rates are down a lot and that is a troubling sign for him.

The Blue Jays have a good young lineup, and they also have a very underrated bullpen. Toronto ranks 4th in the majors in bullpen ERA. The Boston bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen in the majors. 

This is a fair price for a team with plenty to play for and the better starter and far better bullpen.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals have Max Scherzer on the mound here. With Scherzer on the mound, and laying such a short price, I have to back the road team here.

Washington is first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Nationals are coming off getting shut out by Aaron Nola yesterday. While Zack Wheeler is a solid pitcher, he doesn't have the stuff Nola does.

Scherzer went through a bad stretch a couple games ago, but he was at his best in his last game with his control and his velocity. He threw 6 innings and allowed one run against Boston in his last start. He walked none and struck out 11 in that game. 

The Nationals bullpen isn't a great one, but it is better than the Phillies. Philadelphia has the worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball. Even if the Phillies do have the lead earlier in the game, it isn't safe at all.

Take Washington here. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox have been absolutely mashing left handed pitching. Chicago has a .406 wOBA against lefties, and the second best team in the majors has a .382 wOBA against lefties. This lineup is built to hit southpaws. 

Rich Hill is a pretty good pitcher, but he is above 40 years old now and his skills are in decline. Against a loaded lineup like this he will likely have a tough time.

Lucas Giolito is coming off a no hitter. Some like to fade pitchers off no hitters, and that is exactly why the price is as low as it is here. Giolito had a bad start against the Twins in his first outing too. Still, Giolito is a very good pitcher, and he's backed by a red hot offense and a solid bullpen.

The Twins rank 29th in the majors (ahead of only the Pirates) in wOBA in the last 7 days. The White Sox rank 2nd. 

Chicago is 10-0 against left handed starters in their last 10. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall. A 15-0 angle.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 12-1 in their last 13 road games. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in their last 5 as an underdog. They are 25-8 in their last 33 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Yankees are badly banged up right now. Their lineup isn't even close to what it was at the beginning of the season. New York ranks 25th in weighted on base average in the last 7 days. Tampa Bay ranks 10th in that category. 

The Rays have the better bullpen and the better offense now. 

Tyler Glasnow has pitched really well in his last two starts, and this is a good plus money price on him. Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher, but he has been shaky of late.

This is a 50/50 game and I'm getting a nice plus money price.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Angels aren't good enough to be laying this kind of price with a poor pitcher on the mound against anyone. Jaime Barria has never proven good enough to consistently get major league hitters out. He allows too much hard contact, and he walks a lot of batters as well.

Marco Gonzales is having a nice season for the Mariners. Gonzales ranks in the top 2% of all pitchers in walk rate. He also is allowing soft contact much more than last year. 

The Angels have been trading players away and are 21-48 in their last 69 plays.

Take Seattle.

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Pittsburgh Pirates are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, and it isn't even close. The Pirates have a terrible .247 wOBA against right handed pitching. The second worst team in the majors in that stat sits at .271. 

The Pirates also rank dead last in the majors in wOBA in the last two weeks at .259 (second worst is .272). Pittsburgh's lineup is a mess, and they go against a very good right handed pitcher in Brandon Woodruff here. Woodruff has held this Pirates lineup to a .194 batting average in his career. 

Steven Brault issues too many free passes and gives up a lot of hard contact. Brault has allowed this Brewers lineup a .412 OBP in his career. 

The Brewers clearly have the offensive advantage. They clearly have a big starting pitching advantage. They also have the better bullpen.

Take the Brewers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* This game is being played in Buffalo at Sahlen Field. This park is playing as a major hitters park. It is rating as a similar park to Great American Ballpark and Yankee Stadium as far as park factor. 

Today, the wind is blowing out 12-14 mph for this game. We also have two starters who are questionable. Alex Cobb ranks in the bottom 10% in the majors in hard hit rate allowed. Taijuan Walker isn't getting many swinging strikes at all. 

Both of these offenses have been pretty good this season. In the last 30 days, the Blue Jays are 7th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Orioles are 13th. 

There have been some extremely high scoring games at Sahlen Field already this year. While this is a high posted total, I don't think it is quite high enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals start Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has been more dominant last year and so far this year than most people give him credit for. He has been a top four pitcher in baseball during that time. 

Flaherty is a rare combination of a strikeout pitcher who also allows very weak contact. Hitters average exit velocity against him this year is only 82.9 mph (top 2% in the league). His swinging strike rate is an impressive 15.5%. The Indians lineup has been very inconsistent this year, and Flaherty is a really tough matchup.

Carlos Carrasco hasn't looked right in his last couple starts. His velocity is down some and he is giving up more hard contact. He has been hit hard by mediocre at best hitters. Carrasco is giving up 92.5 mph average exit velocity which is in the bottom 5% of the majors. Hitters are really getting good swings on his fastball.

With one of the top pitchers in baseball on the mound and at this cheap of a price, I'll back the home team.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox are easily first in the majors in weighted on base average. The White Sox have a .418 weighted on base average against lefties and the second best team in the majors has a .375 wOBA. Danny Duffy is a middle of the road lefty, and the White Sox lineup has a .349 OBP against him in his career. 

Reynaldo Lopez starts here for the White Sox. Lopez has potential, but has really pitched poorly last year and this year. This Royals lineup has hit him hard. The Royals lineup has a .432 weighted on base average against him in 150 plate appearances. 

It's a warm day in Chicago with the wind blowing out about 10-12 mph here, which is another help for the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brewers and Reds meet in game one of the doubleheader here. This is a 7 inning game. 

Sonny Gray starts here for the Reds. Gray has allowed Brewers hitters to bat only .188 in 145 plate appearances. Gray has been tremendous so far this season. He is pitching deep into games as well. It's possible he'll pitch this entire game, or if not he could make it very close. 

Adrian Houser has drastic home/road splits for his career, and he is much better at home. Josh Hader got the day off yesterday with the postponed game so he might be available in this one.

The Reds rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Brewers rank 28th in the same statistic. These two teams are struggling at the plate right now.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on White Sox -1.5* The Chicago White Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and it isn't even close. The White Sox are absolutely crushing southpaws. Chicago has a .412 wOBA against lefties. The second best team in the majors against lefties has a .383 wOBA. The White Sox lineup has all kinds of guys who specialize in crushing left handers. 

Lucas Giolito had a poor first start, but since that start he has a 2.32 ERA and a 2.30 FIP. He has great swing and miss stuff, and the Pirates are prone to striking out often.

Steven Brault walks far too many batters and he should be pitching from the stretch a lot here. Brault can ill afford to make mistakes against this Sox lineup.

The White Sox have a top five bullpen in all of the major metrics. The Pirates have a bottom ten bullpen. Brault doesn't pitch deep into the game, which means the Pirates will likely have to use some questionable middle relievers here.

Take the White Sox -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* This one is played at Buffalo's Sahlen Field. This field is playing extremely small. The wind here is blowing out at about 10 mph, and we have very questionable pitching.

Kyle Hart was torched in his first start. He then looked some better in his second start, but he still didn't even complete 4 innings. The Boston Red Sox bullpen is a major weakness this year, and seeing them for a long time could help the over as well.

Toronto has a .377 wOBA at home so far this year. The Blue Jays have a very strong #1-#6 in the lineup. 

Boston has allowed 9 runs or more in 5 of their last 12 games.

Toronto's games in Buffalo this year have been extremely high scoring. This total is high, but it is high for a very good reason.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Kenta Maeda is a really good pitcher. I think the Dodgers didn't get enough out of him with their pitching coaches in the last few years. Minnesota is a really well coached staff, and the Twins have changed Maeda's pitching strategy a bit this year. It is working extremely well. Maeda has a 2.27 ERA and a 2.46 FIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a start this year. Maeda has walked only six batters in five starts this season.

Aaron Civale has been tremendous this year as well. His control is as good as anyone right now. Civale is walking less than one batter per nine innings. He has a 2.91 ERA and a 2.69 FIP on the year.

The Indians and Twins both have top five bullpens in the majors. The offenses here have been inconsistent at best. 

The under is 6-0 in the Twins last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 games with a total of 8.5 or lower. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. A 15-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Angels send Dylan Bundy to the mound here. Bundy has one bad start this year (his last one), but overall he has been tremendous. Bundy has already pitched against the Oakland Athletics twice and he has gone 13 and 2/3 innings and allowed one run while walking only one batter and striking out 17.

Frankie Montas has one bad start this year as well (his last one). Overall, Montas has been solid. He has a great fastball and that can give hitters a hard time.

The Oakland lineup has only a .299 weighted on base average against Bundy. The Angels lineup has only a .298 wOBA against Montas.

This is a park where the park factor is in the botton 3 or 4 of the majors every year. It's a strong pitcher's park. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The Cincinnati Reds have been very inconsistent this year. The offense has been a bit disappointing. Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto have had a slow start to the season. Jesse Winker has been red hot of late, but Winker is much better against right handed pitching than lefties. 

Cincinnati's bullpen has been a problem for much of the year, while the Cardinals bullpen has been a relative strength. 

Wade Miley starts this game for the Reds, and he hasn't shown me any reason to trust him. He has two starts and has yet to complete 2 innings in a game this season. Miley has been very wild.

Kwang Hyun Kim starts for St. Louis here. Kim has a higher upside than does Miley. He can throw the kitchen sink at you and he can throw all his pitches for strikes.

The Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 following a win. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 following a loss.

Take St. Louis. 

*4 Star MLB Game of the Week* The Los Angeles Angels aren't very good. They have the best player in baseball in Mike Trout, but the team as a whole just isn't good enough.

This line has been steamed on the Angels to where I have to come in and take the other side. Oakland is a very complete team. The Athletics have a good starting staff and an excellent bullpen. They also have a very deep lineup. 

The Angels bottom of the lineup has been absolutely awful and that has hurt them badly. They have also been hurt by their bullpen many times.

Griffin Canning relies on fastballs and curveballs a lot, and that is what Oakland's lineup is best at hitting. The A's have some great fastball hitters and Canning has allowed a .372 weighted on base average against this lineup in his career.

Chris Bassit isn't a tremendous pitcher, but he is solid and keeps you in the game. He limits hard contact and doesn't walk many guys at all.

Oakland is 38-13 in their last 51 home games. The Angels are 11-27 in their last 38 vs. the AL West.

Take Oakland. 

*4 Star Play Over* Oracle Park has been an absolute launching pad so far this year. This is a stadium that ranked dead last in park factor last year, but is in the top five in that statistic so far this year.

In the last 10 games played at Oracle, there hasn't been a game that has finished lower than 9 runs. Many of them have been far higher. Five of the last ten have finished with at least 13 runs scored. 

The Giants offense has been better than expected so far this year. San Francisco is much better against lefties than righties, and they'll face a questionable lefty here in Robbie Ray. 

Logan Webb has potential, but he hasn't pitched deep into games through his career, and this Giants bullpen may be the worst in baseball this year. 

Robbie Ray has an 8.59 ERA and a 7.69 FIP through five starts. He is walking nearly one batter per inning. He once again is giving up a lot of long balls as well.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Anthony DeSclafani was tipping his pitches in his last start and he was absolutely lit up. He will try to correct that here, but his past history against the Cardinals isn't good at all. This Cardinals lineup has a whopping .385 weighted on base average against Disco in 165 plate appearances. 

Dakota Hudson has been getting hit extremely hard this year. The average exit velocity he has given up this year is more than 94 mph (in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in baseball). Hudson has poor control and gives up a lot of hard contact. It's a really bad combination. The Reds hitters have a .393 wOBA against Hudson.

This is a low total for two pitchers with a lot of question marks. The Cardinals offense has struggled against lefties, but they have been solid against righties. The Reds lineup is much better now with Moustakas healthy once again.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves lineup isn't even close to what it was a week or two ago. They are missing Acuna, Markakis, and Albies. Those are some really important bats in this lineup. 

Aaron Nola has been dealing this year. Nola has a 2.05 ERA with a 2.27 FIP and a 1.91 xFIP. It hasn't been luck. Nola has an amazing 14.8% swinging strike rate so far this year. He has been pitching deep into games as well, and that has been thanks to his excellent control. 

Max Fried has been in great form as well. Fried has a 1.24 ERA and a 2.35 FIP. Fried is allowing far less hard contact so far this year, which is a great sign. 

The Phillies offense has been very good this year, but I do see them as due for some regression. This offense isn't a top five offense in the majors like they have looked so far this year.

The weather conditions are moderate in Atlanta now which is a positive as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oracle Park is playing far differently this year than it has in previous seasons. Last year this park ranked dead last in park factor. This year it ranks fifth! The ball is flying out of here far more often than in the past.

Jose Suarez has a lot to prove as a major league starter. Suarez was a guy with a lot of hype, but he hasn't produced. Suarez threw 81 innings in the big leagues last year. He finished with a 7.11 ERA and a 6.72 FIP. Suarez had a 4.85 FIP and a 5.77 xFIP in Triple A as well. His command is poor and he gives up a lot of really hard contact. 

Kevin Gausman has thrown the ball pretty well this year, but the Angels are good against right handed pitching. Gausman also doesn't pitch very deep into games, and the Giants bullpen is dead last in the majors in xFIP and SIERA. This bullpen has been crushed many times.

The Giants offense is far better against lefties than righties so they are in a favorable split here. The Angels have a bottom ten bullpen as well and Suarez doesn't pitch deep into games at all either.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* The Cleveland Indians start Aaron Civale here, and I really like what I've seen from him. Civale has excellent control of all of his pitches. He is walking only 1.08 batters per nine innings. Civale also allows softer contact than most big league starters. His cutter has been a real weapon this season.

Civale goes up against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has been absolutely awful against right handed pitching. The Pirates have been alright against lefties, but against righties they have been dreadful. The Pirates have a .243 weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The second worst team in the majors against right handers has a wOBA of .278 (35 points higher). 

Steven Brault is a subpar lefty, and the Indians have some patient hitters who could make him work here. Brault has poor control and can work himself into some really bad spots.

The Indians have a top five bullpen in the majors and the Pirates have a bottom 10 bullpen in the majors.

Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox slugged 4 home runs in a row yesterday, and this offense appears ready to break out. Chicago is much better with Tim Anderson leading off, and he was injured for a while. He's back now and he is a great table setter for this team. Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez are both healthy now as well. There is a lot of power in the middle of this lineup.

The Detroit Tigers rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Tigers have a very right handed heavy lineup that should be able to continue to have success against southpaws. Detroit can't hit righties, but Gio Gonzalez is a subpar lefty who is near the end of his career. 

Matt Boyd has allowed a .381 wOBA to the White Sox. Boyd comes into this game in terrible form. He has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in a game this year. He has allowed 4 runs or more in every game. Boyd has allowed 7 runs in each of his last two starts (one against the White Sox).

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* Robbie Ray starts here for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Until he fixes his recent major problems, I'll be looking to go against him. How bad has Ray been this year? He has a 10.59 ERA and a whopping 8.25 FIP. He is walking 7.41 batters per nine innings. Ray is allowing a massive 50% hard hit rate on batted balls according to Fangraphs. He has strikeout potential, but when batters are hitting the ball this year they are really hitting it hard. 

Garrett Richards has been consistent this year. He has a 3.74 ERA and a 3.55 FIP. He allowed only one hit in 5 innings pitched against the DBacks earlier this year. He is coming off a 6 inning one run allowed performance against the Dodgers strong lineup.

The Padres have a bullpen advantage against the Diamondbacks. 

The Padres hitters have an impressive .398 on base percentage against Robbie Ray. 

I'll lay the short price with the road team here.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros offense is coming back to life in recent contests. The Astros scored nine runs in the first inning alone yesterday. Houston has scored 28 runs in their last four games. They got a big boost when Yordan Alvarez returned to the lineup on Friday night as well. Some people underrate how good Alvarez is, and I think he'll make a big difference.

Nick Margevicius starts here for the Mariners. He's a below average lefty, and I don't expect that to play well against this Houston lineup. Houston is 7th in weighted on base average in the majors against left handed pitching (only 21st against righties). Margevicius doesn't pitch deep into the game often either, and the Mariners have the second worst bullpen FIP in the majors.

Cristian Javier isn't a guy that pitches deep into the game very often for Houston either, and the Astros bullpen is extremely banged up right now. Seattle should get some scoring chances too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* Lance Lynn starts here for the Texas Rangers. Lynn is dealing once again this year. This start is at Coors Field, but Lynn has been very good there in four starts in his career. Lynn has a 2.84 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP in his four starts at Coors Field. The current Rockies lineup has an OBP of only .287 against Lynn.

Ryan Castellani starts this one for the Rockies. He had a good start against Seattle, but his history doesn't make me think he can have much success in the long run. Castellani had a 5.49 ERA and 5.21 FIP in Double A two years ago. He had a whopping 8.31 ERA and a 8.25 FIP in Triple A last season. He has a lot of control problems, and that usually doesn't play well at Coors Field. You can't give the other team free base runners here.

The Rangers offense hasn't been very good this, but they should improve at least somewhat. Colorado is a team that is ripe for regression. The Rockies have had a nice start to the season, but this team isn't nearly as good as their record would indicate.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Kenta Maeda here, and he's been very good this season. Maeda has a 2.65 ERA and a 3.21 FIP so far this season. He has great control (only 1.59 walks per nine innings) and only 27.9% of batted balls against him have been hard hit. It's a nice combination of good control and soft contact. Maeda hasn't allowed more than 4 hits in any of his first three starts.

Eric Lauer has a 9.53 ERA so far this year (small sample size). His past doesn't suggest we should have high hopes for him. He's a guy who walks far too many guys and gives up a lot of home runs. The Twins lineup has a bunch of power. 

Minnesota hasn't hit the ball very well lately, but I trust that this group will break out of this recent slump. It's a very deep lineup. As a team the Twins have only a .267 batting average on balls in play, and that should regress to the mean (.295 or .300 likely). 

I'll lay the short price here.

Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies have a history of playing a lot of high scoring games against each other. I think this will be another of those high scoring contests. 

Antonio Senzatela has good numbers so far this year, but his long term track record doesn't make me think this is a true breakout. He allows a lot of very hard contact, and he doesn't miss many bats. That is a really bad combination, especially at Coors Field. He has a career WHIP at Coors Field of 1.471. This is a day game at hot Coors Field which helps the offense. Senzatela has a brutal 6.27 ERA in day games in his career. 

Luke Weaver hasn't had any command of his pitches this year. Weaver now walks into Coors Field to take on a red hot Rockies offense. Weaver gives up tons of long balls and the heat in a day game at Coors is a negative for him there as well.

Five of the last seven games between these two teams have gone to at least 12 runs.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays have a bullpen day here with Andrew Kittredge getting the start and Jalen Beeks likely to follow him. Both of those guys are solid pitchers and can use their offspeed pitches well. 

Martin Perez has been very fortunate so far this year. Perez has a career high 5.64 SIERA (not good at all), but has an ERA of just 3.45. He's walking guys at the highest rate of his career, but he's been stranding a lot of base runners. I'll look to go against him again here. The Rays offense has been good away from home this season.

Tampa Bay has a big bullpen advantage here as well. The Red Sox are just 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is accustomed to winning at Fenway Park too. The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games at Fenway.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER * The Colorado Rockies are off to a great start this year. I don't think the team is anywhere as good as their record would indicate now, but I still think this is a good spot to back them against the Diamondbacks.

Robbie Ray is overvalued in the betting markets. Ray was said to have made changes in his mechanics in the offseason that would make him a new pitcher. So far the results are terrible to say the very least. Ray has a 9.45 ERA and a 8.74 FIP. 

How bad have things gone for Ray? He is walking more than 7 batters per nine innings and allowing more than 4 home runs per nine innings. He is allowing an eye popping average exit velocity of 92.4 mph (worst in his career). 

Now Ray takes on the Colorado Rockies, who have absolutely crushed him in the past. The current Rockies lineup has a .457 weighted on base average against him in a large sample size. This isn't the type of place you want to be trying to fix major issues, and Ray comes into this one struggling badly. 

Jon Gray has turned into a pretty good starting pitcher. He has a 4.08 and 4.06 FIP in his last two seasons despite playing half of his games at Coors Field. Gray has much better control than does Ray.

The Rockies bullpen has been significantly better than the DBacks bullpen so far this season.

Colorado is 58-21 in their last 79 as a home favorite. The Rockies are good at Coors Field, and the DBacks are only 2-6 in their last 8 games at Coors Field. 

The Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a left handed starter. The Rockies are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. A 15-0 angle. 

Take Colorado. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Shane Bieber has been amazing so far this year. Bieber has been the best pitcher in the majors through three starts. Bieber has a 0.83 ERA and a 1.23 xFIP through those three starts. He is ringing up 14.5 batters per nine innings and is walking only 1.25 batters per nine innings. His control is as precise as anyone in baseball.

Lucas Giolito started the year out with a bad start, but he has bounced back really nicely in his last two outings. Indians hitters have a very low .241 weighted on base average against Giolito.

These guys get a very favorable home plate umpire draw here. Jeremy Rehak ranks in the top 5 in the majors in strikes called percentage and he'll give the edge far more than the average umpire.

The under is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. A 16-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jose Berrios is not the same pitcher on the road that he is at home. Berrios has had some very ugly road starts in the last couple years. He does have a nasty curveball, but he is allowing a very high barrel percentage rate and a lot of hard contact this year. The Royals have scored 25 runs in their last three games so they are swinging the bat well right now.

The Minnesota Twins arguably have the best offense in baseball. It is at least a top five offense. They'll face rookie Brady Singer. He has decent stuff, but hasn't faced a lineup this good yet and I think he'll struggle.

The temperature is in the low 90's for this one and a wind blowing out at about 15 mph will be blowing during this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani here, and I'm pretty high on DeSclafani overall. The Reds have arguably the best pitching coach in baseball in Derek Johnson and he really thinks the adjustments DeSclafani has made will move him forward nicely. 

Brett Anderson is an up and down lefty, but this Reds offense has been cold. They are 22nd in wOBA against lefties and they have scored 4 runs or less in seven of their last eight games. 

The Brewers are without Ryan Braun now. Christian Yelich is in a major slump. The Reds have been without Mike Moustakas and he is questionable for this one. 

Ben May is the home plate umpire here, and May is clearly an under umpire. He ranks in the top 8 in strikes called in my umpire database. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on DBacks ML* The Houston Astros are shorthanded right now. Their bullpen is badly banged up. They are throwing all kinds of youngsters into the fire from the bullpen. Houston is also without Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez in the lineup. Houston still has a good lineup, but it isn't the dominant one we have come to expect.

Brandon Bielak gets a start here for Houston. This is his first major league start. Chase Field isn't the easiest place to get your first start as a youngster. The Diamondbacks offense has underachieved in a big way so far this year, but they put up 14 runs last night and may have some momentum now.

Zac Gallen is a guy I expect to have a breakout season this year. Gallen has elite stuff and he can really miss bats. He made an adjustment before his last start with his delivery and his control was much better last start.

This is a 50/50 game to me, so I'll gladly take the nice plus money price.

Take Arizona. 

*4 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays have a big pitching advantage in this one. Martin Perez isn't good. Perez has had a SIERA of 5 or higher for five straight seasons. Basically, he isn't fooling anyone. He walks too many guys and doesn't miss enough bats.

Ryan Yarbrough has become a solid starter for the Rays. He has two very good starts already this year. He's also backed by an elite bullpen. The Rays bullpen is a top three bullpen in the majors. The same can't be said about the Red Sox, who have a bullpen that is worse than the league average.

Tampa Bay has started slowly this year and that has caused the market to get a little too low on this team. This is a great pitching staff, an improving offense, and a great manager.

Tampa Bay is 20-6 in their last 26 as a home favorite. They are 7-1 in their last 8 games against the Red Sox.

Take Tampa Bay.