*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs have scored a bunch of runs in this series, but I think there will be a lot less scoring in this series finale on Thursday afternoon. Jake Arrieta has been great since joining the Chicago Cubs, and he has pitched brilliantly against the Cardinals. Arrieta has a 0.74 ERA in six starts against the Cardinals. John Lackey is often underrated by the oddsmakers, and he's been very good when pitching at Busch Stadium. This being a get away day game means we could easily have some of the better hitters out of the lineup for a day off. 

The under is 4-0 in Arrieta's last 4 starts on grass. The under is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-2 in his last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the NL Central. The under is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 games as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts overall. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago Cubs send Jon Lester to the mound here. He pitched into a lot of bad luck early this year. Opponents had a batted balls in play average of almost .400 against Lester in his first three starts which is way too high. He looked great in his last outing, and the Cardinals aren't very good against lefties. In fact, they are in the bottom five in baseball in on base percentage against left-handers. Lance Lynn is an underrated pitcher, and he's been superb throughout his career at home. He should take advantage of this free swinging Cubs lineup here. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have a good lineup, but they aren't swinging the bats very well right now. Hanley Ramirez is arguably their best hitter, and he'll likely miss this game with an injury again. Alex Colome is a terrific young pitcher for the Rays. In his young career, he has an ERA of just a little above 1 on the road. This will obviously go up over time, but Colome has proven he isn't scared of pitching away from home. Justin Masterson pitches into trouble a lot, but the Rays offense is scuffling right now. Tampa Bay has one of the weakest lineups in the majors.  Masterson does a nice job working out of jams. The Red Sox bullpen has been great. 

The under is 4-0 in Tampa Bay's last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 as a road underdog. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in Colome's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in Masterson's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts against a team with a winning record. A 70-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The New York Yankees have had Mark Buehrle's number over the years. Buehrle was a good pitcher for many years, but at this point in his career I don't think he is a quality starter. He is 36 years old and his stuff is getting worse and worse. Even when he had good stuff, the Yankees got to him consistently. I have no reason to trust him here. New York ranks third in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching. The Yankees also have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Toronto's bullpen isn't good at all. The Blue Jays lineup isn't as good as the Yankees right now since Reyes is out with an injury. At even money, the Yankees are a great value. 

The Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a lefty. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Blue Jays are 1-8 in Buehrle's last 9 starts vs. the Yankees. A 17-1 angle. Take the Yankees. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of Week* We have a really nice setup for the over here. Mark Buehrle has been absolutely torched by the New York Yankees in his career. His ERA against the Yankees in his career is 6.21 (in 21 starts). Last year, he had an ERA of 6.83 against the Yankees. Also remember, Buehrle is near the end of his career, and he doesn't have the same quality stuff he used to have. C.C. Sabathia is very hittable at this point as well, and Toronto ranks first in the majors in on base percentage against left handed starters. There should be a bunch of base runners in this game. It's also a big boost to this one that we get Toby Basner behind the dish. The over is 21-7-2 in Basner's last 30 games behind home plate. I see a possibility of a very high scoring game here, and with the total at just 8.5, this is a strong play for me. 

The over is 5-0 in Buehrle's last 5 starts vs. the Yankees. The over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 starts vs. the Blue Jays. The over is 10-1 in the Yankees last 11 during game three of a series. The over is 9-1 in Buehrle's last 10 home starts. A 28-2 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst lineups in the American League. The Boston Red Sox have a really strong bullpen. Tampa Bay's bullpen has been throwing the ball really well of late. Boston will probably be without Hanley Ramirez in this one. The Red Sox are hitting just .199 so far this year against lefties and Ramirez is great against lefties. Drew Smyly has been a pretty decent lefty the last few years. Rick Porcello looked much better in his last outing, and the Rays offense isn't very deep. We also draw a very favorable umpire behind the plate here in Brian Gorman. He has one of the biggest strike zones in the majors. 

The under is 8-0 in Tampa Bay's last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on grass. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 as a road underdog. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a righty. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in Smyly's last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on grass. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 53-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Baltimore Orioles have one of the top five offenses in the majors. Bartolo Colon is still a pretty good pitcher, but he's almost 42 years old, and he's no longer dominant. Colon has been hittable of late when pitching at Citi Field, and the Orioles lineup is no walk in the park. The Mets offense isn't particularly good, but Bud Norris is really inconsistent, and he's the type of guy that could give up 6 or 8 runs in a start. The Mets have typically given Bartolo Colon tremendous run support in the past. This total is set too low at only 7 runs. 

The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 interleague games as an underdog of +101 to +150. The over is 4-0 in Norris' last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0-1 in the Mets last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games. The over is 12-0 in Colon's last 12 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 following a team loss. A 43-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* I knew the Houston Astros would be a much better team this year than they have been in the past few years, but I had no idea they would be playing the type of baseball they are right now. They are trying to run away with the AL West right now. One of the biggest reasons why is their pitching staff. This young staff has some guys who are overachieving, but I don't think Dallas Keuchel is one of them. Keuchel has reinvented himself and he does a great job keeping the ball on the ground. Texas' lineup is far weaker now than it has been in the past. The Rangers aren't built for slugfests anymore. Ross Detwiler has an ERA above 8 this year, and he shows no signs of improving. Houston has several guys who hit lefties very well. The Astros bullpen is much better than the Rangers bullpen. The oddsmakers are still a bit slow to believe in Keuchel and the Astros. The Astros have won 10 straight, and they are 11-1 in Keuchel's last 12 starts. The Rangers are 0-4 in Detwiler's last 4 starts. Take Houston -1.5

*3 Star MLB Big Dog* The Milwaukee Brewers aren't a particularly good team, but they aren't as awful as their record either. Carlos Gomez is back in the lineup and Aramis Ramirez is listed as probable for Sunday. Gomez is a huge spark for this lineup offensively and he's awesome defensively. The Chicago Cubs are better this year, but they aren't good enough to be laying -160 with Jason Hammel on the mound. In baseball, sometimes you simply have to bet a price, and that's what I'm doing in this one. Jimmy Nelson has a lot of upside potential and at this price I'm taking Milwaukee here. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Detroit Tigers have a clear pitching advantage here. Anibal Sanchez has proven how good he can be for a very long time. Sanchez has been amazing against the Royals in his career. In 7 career starts vs. the Royals, Sanchez has a 1.07 ERA. On the other side, Jeremy Guthrie starts for the Royals. He has a 4.63 career ERA vs. the Tigers and had a 7.71 ERA vs. Detroit last year. Detroit's offense is one of the best in the majors, and Guthrie's stuff isn't good enough to consistently quiet this lineup. Guthrie has never been particularly good, and his stuff is slowly getting worse over the years. This is the rubber game of this series, and Detroit is a great price here. Take the Tigers. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* John Danks has been absolutely blasted by the Minnesota Twins on a consistent basis throughout his career. How bad has it been? Danks has a 5.59 ERA in 27 career starts against Minnesota. At Target Field, his ERA is a ridiculous 7.74 in eight starts. Mike Pelfrey has been getting fortunate this year and stranding a ton of runners on base. That can't continue constantly, and his career ERA at Target Field is 5.85. Both of these teams are bad defensively, and that could be an extra boost to this total. Look for a bunch of scoring opportunities here. As long as they cash in at a decent rate, I think this one gets past the posted total. I see 10 runs or more here.

The over is 7-0 in Danks' last 7 road starts in Minnesota. The over is 5-0-1 in Danks' last 6 Sunday games. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Wei-Yin Chen has a terrific ERA so far this year. It isn't going to continue all year long. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play so far this year against him of just .177. That's just ridiculously low, and it can't continue. Tampa Bay hits lefties better than righties. Nate Karns looks a bit overmatched right now, and the Orioles ranks third in the majors in on base percentage against right handed pitching. The first time these two pitchers squared off in Tampa Bay the final was 5-4, and I expect something very similar here. A total of 7.5 is just too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Cleveland Indians haven't been good to me so far this year, but I still think they are a much better team than their record would indicate. Cleveland is slowly getting healthy, and as they do it should start to show up in the win/loss column. Drew Hutchison has a 5.15 ERA on the road in his career, and Trevor Bauer has had a terrific year this year. Toronto's offense isn't the same without a healthy Jose Reyes at the top of the order. Ryan Goins is his replacement, and that's a big downgrade. Bauer is a better pitcher than Hutchison and the Indians bullpen is slightly better than the Jays pen. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners offense has been struggling of late. Seattle's bullpen, which started the year surprisingly in terrible form, has gotten back to their dominating form of late. Houston has one of the top five ranked bullpens in the majors right now, and that's one of the big reasons this team is so much improved from last year. Collin McHugh has been tremendous for the Astros too, and his command has been excellent all year. Taijuan Walker started the year with a couple really bad outings, but he has bounced back to pitch well in his last two games (one against Houston where he only allowed one run). Ron Kulpa is behind the dish here, and he's among the best under umpires.

The under is 6-0 in the Mariners last 6 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Walker's last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0-1 in Houston's last 6 home games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 48-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Washington Nationals are far better than they have played so far this year. The New York Mets aren't as good as they have played this year. It will really surprise if the Nationals don't win the NL East. It likely won't end up being very close. The Mets definitely miss David Wright, and that is especially true when they face a good left-handed starter like Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a dazzling 1.88 ERA at Citi Field in his career. Wright is terrific against lefties, and this Mets lineup as a whole has quite a few guys in it who struggle against lefties. Washington is much better offensively against left-handed pitching.

Jon Niese is a decent pitcher, but I don't rate him as high as Gonzalez. The Nationals definitely have a bullpen advantage here too. Washington is 21-10 in their last 31 vs. a lefty. They are 6-1 in Gonzalez's last 7 road starts at Citi Field. The Mets are 0-4 in Niese's last 4 vs. Washington. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Toronto Blue Jays have a good lineup, but it isn't as good as usual right now. Jose Reyes is out of the lineup with an injury and the Blue Jays have no depth behind him. This ends up meaning that the top of the Blue Jays order is very good, but from #5 through #9 this lineup is really weak now. Devon Travis has had a great start to the year, but he's questionable for this one with an injury too. Corey Kluber has had some bad luck in his first few starts this year. His peripherals suggest it's only a matter of time until he starts putting up impressive numbers again. Aaron Sanchez has been bad this year, and he looks like a guy who should be in the bullpen. Cleveland has a much deeper lineup. Sanchez has trouble going late into the game, and the Blue Jays bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. The moneyline is expensive here, so I'll take the run line. Take Cleveland -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres are no longer the amazing under team that they have been in the past. San Diego went out and made their offense a whole lot better in the offseason. The other thing they did was make their defense a lot worse. This defense will make a lot of errors this year, and that can really boost the scoring. Colorado starts Eddie Butler here, and he isn't a good starter. He has had some tremendous luck early in the year, and I expect to see him get hit hard soon. Ian Kennedy looked terrible in his season debut against the Dodgers, and I'm not sure he's 100 percent healthy yet. The Rockies bullpen is weak to start with and they are without Adam Ottavino, their closer, for at least the next 15 days. Too low of a total with these two offenses. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Night MONEY* The Cincinnati Reds are .500 on the year. Atlanta is 10-12 after starting the year red hot. The Braves aren't a good team, and I expect it to be a really long year for the Braves. The strength of this Atlanta team in the past was their bullpen, but they rank 28th out of 30 teams in bullpen ERA right now. That's important in this one because Mike Foltynewicz will make the first start of his big league career for Atlanta here. He has been a reliever much of his career, and he likely won't pitch deep into the game. Anthony DeSclafani has been really good so far this year. He has quality stuff and he faces a weak lineup here. There's no doubt the Reds have the much better lineup, and I give them the pitching edge here too. Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Yankees/Red Sox CASH* The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have tremendous lineups. Boston's lineup is a little bit deeper, but there is a lot of star power on both of these teams. Justin Masterson has 4.69 ERA in his career at Fenway, so he can't be too happy to be pitching there against a strong lineup. C.C. Sabathia has been inconsistent this year, and his career ERA at Fenway is a lofty 5.30 in 14 starts. Both of these lineups are more than capable of putting together big innings. 

The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The over is 10-1 in the Yankees last 15 following a loss. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Seattle Mariners have King Felix on the mound here. Felix has had some trouble with Texas in the past, which is likely the reason the line is a bit cheaper than you would expect here. Having said that, Hernandez was great against Texas last year, and he shut them down earlier this year too. This Texas lineup isn't as good as they were a couple years ago, and the Mariners offense has been upgraded in a big way with Cano and Cruz in the middle of the order. As much as I like Hernandez, I really don't like Wandy Rodriguez. Rodriguez isn't a good pitcher, and he wriggled his way out of trouble several times in his last outing. I don't expect him to have success in Texas, and I'll keep fading him. Take Seattle -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a really good team, and they've been beaten soundly by the Chicago Cubs in the first two games of this series. I expect to see the Pirates show resilience in this one. Gerrit Cole is on the mound, and he's one of the best young arms in baseball. Cole is a guy I'm very high on because of his electric stuff as well as his ability to pitch deep into the game. The Cubs offense has a lot of free swingers, and I think Cole will take advantage of that here. The Pirates are 24-9 in Cole's last 33 starts. The Pirates are a perfect 5-0 in Cole's last 5 starts vs. the Cubs. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers have given us too generous of a price on the Toronto Blue Jays here. Toronto has a tremendous lineup, and this Blue Jays team is going to score a lot of runs this year. Boston also has a very good lineup, but Rick Porcello has been struggling with his command so far this year. R.A. Dickey has gotten off to a slow start, but he typically warms up a bit after his first few starts. Also, Dickey had a 2.23 ERA in five starts against Boston last year. Porcello is a streaky pitcher, and when he has been throwing it poorly, I like to look for spots to go against him. Toronto has proven they can win at Fenway. The Blue Jays are 8-3 in their last 11 games at Fenway. Toronto is 4-1 in Dickey's last 5 starts at Fenway. Take Toronto. 

*4 Star MLB Giants/Dogers Totals CASH* It's Clayton Kershaw against Madison Bumgarner here. This is must see television for baseball fans. Kershaw and Bumgarner are two of the best, and both of them have had great success against their rivals. The stats really are eye-popping for this one. In 195 innings in his career, Kershaw has a ridiculous 1.48 ERA against the Giants. Bumgarner has a 2.19 ERA when pitching at Dodger Stadium. Another important point here is Gary Cedarstrom behind home plate. Kershaw has a dazzling 0.52 ERA in 5 career starts with him as home plate umpire. Bumgarner has a nice 2.45 ERA with him as the home plate umpire.

The under is 8-2-1 in Bumgarner's last 11 starts vs. the Dodgers. The under is 18-6-2 in Kershaw's last 26 starts vs. the Giants. I don't like taking unders this low, but there's a good reason for this total to be low. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night Moneyline Play* I typically don't lay this big of a price, but I think it's justified here. My cut off line is -150, and this one has dipped below that price. I considered taking the run line here, but there are a ton of very low scoring games played at Petco Park, and having -1.5 is a scary thing when so many games finish with the home team winning by a single run. Tyson Ross has been amazing when pitching at Petco Park in his career. In 160 innings, he has a 2.03 ERA. The Astros hitters swing and miss a lot, and Ross definitely has the stuff to rack up the strikeouts tonight. Roberto Hernandez isn't a good pitcher, and while the Astros are certainly better than last year, they aren't as good as they have played thus far. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst team in the National League. A quick look at their lineup tells you this team is in some serious trouble. Outside of Chase Utley, there isn't another high quality hitter here. Severino Gonzalez makes his Major League debut here for the Phillies. Gonzalez is a decent prospect, but he'll take time to develop. He's had trouble with the long ball in Triple A, and this Cardinals lineup is a good one. This is no easy first start for Gonzalez. The Phillies bullpen isn't good. St. Louis has the third ranked bullpen so far this year, and Michael Wacha starts here. Wacha has a career 2.24 ERA at home. Mismatch all the way. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* The Detroit Tigers may have the best lineup in baseball. Who would want to face the likes of Cabrera, Martinez, Martinez, and Cespedes right in a row? Mike Pelfrey isn't the type of guy that shuts this lineup down very often at all. Pelfrey has a nice ERA this year, but he has done it with smoke and mirrors. Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all. The opposition hasn't been able to take advantage of run scoring chances against Pelfrey so far this year, but Detroit is very good when hitting with runners in scoring position. Anibal Sanchez has a career ERA of 2.30 against the Twins. This price has dropped to the point that it has become a nice value play. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians have played bad baseball so far this year, but it is still early in the year, and I still think this is a pretty good team. Kansas City is playing a little above their heads right now. Jeremy Guthrie starts in this one, and that's a good reason to go against them. Guthrie hasn't been very good in the past couple years, and he has been worse this year. Guthrie has a career ERA of 6.06 (68 and 1/3 innings) against the Indians. At Cleveland, his ERA is 6.82. Trevor Bauer has dynamic stuff, and he gives the Indians a huge pitching advantage here. Because of their poor play early in the year, the price here is too cheap. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense was terrible in their three game series at home against Pittsburgh. The Pirates do have the best team ERA in the majors though. Arizona should be glad to see Colorado coming to town for a series. This Rockies pitching staff is one of the worst in the majors. Tyler Matzek has been ridiculously lucky this year on batted balls in play. That luck isn't going to continue forever. Chase Anderson is a decent pitcher, but his ERA with the roof open is more than a run higher than with it closed. Chase Field's roof will be open tonight, and I think there will be a lot of scoring. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* I'm convinced that the Pittsburgh Pirates are a better team than the Chicago Cubs. Chicago has clearly gotten more fanfare because of their big improvement from last year and the obvious media attention that always surrounds Wrigley Field, but Pittsburgh has a very solid team. The Pirates lost three straight to start the season in Cincinnati, but they are 11-5 in their last 16 games. Pittsburgh has a much better lineup surrounding Andrew McCutchen this year, and that is a big key. Vance Worley isn't a star, but he isn't a bad pitcher either. Jason Hammel has struggled against the Pirates in his career. I think Pittsburgh should be a small favorite here.

The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. They are 7-0 in Worley's last 7 starts when their opponent has scored 5 runs or more in their last game. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games at Wrigley Field. A 21-0 angle. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals are a better team than their record would indicate. The Atlanta Braves are unlikely to finish at .500. I think the Braves will sink over the course of the season largely because of their poor offense. Washington's offense has been bad this year, but they are much better against left-handed pitching, and here they'll face one of the worst left-handed starters in baseball in Eric Stults. Stults is a pitch to contact type of guy, and I think the Nationals will square up several tonight. Good price here on the road team. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are both playing good baseball coming into this series. Nate Karns and Adam Warren are two young starters who haven't quite settled into their roles just yet. The first meeting between these two this year finished 5-4 in Tampa Bay. This is certainly a more hitter friendly park. Warren has 8 walks on the year and only 6 strikeouts. Too many runners are getting on base against him, and he is pitching to contact. Karns is really inconsistent at this point, and the Yankees lineup is sneaky good. The Rays bullpen has been a big problem this year, and Karns doesn't pitch very deep into the game.

The over is 5-0 in Karns' last 5 starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0-1 in the Yankees last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Warren's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams at Yankee Stadium. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Mets/Yankees CASH* The New York Mets picked up a nice win with Matt Harvey on the mound yesterday. Harvey is throwing the ball so well right now. Jon Niese is a solid pitcher, but he's definitely no Matt Harvey. The Yankees rank second in the majors in on base percentage against lefties. This Yankees lineup can really put people on base against lefties, and Niese has a relatively high WHIP in his career. Nate Eovaldi has an electric fastball, and he's going against a Mets lineup that isn't good right now. Without D'Arnaud and Wright, this team is playing several guys who are very poor hitters. The Mets deserve tons of credit for how they have played thus far, but that impressive record gives us value going against them. The Mets are 3-13 in Niese's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Yankees. 

*5 Star TOP Play Totals MONEY* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates haven't done much scoring in the first two games of this series, but I like their chances of putting up a lot more runs on Sunday. Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open, and that is magnified when it is daytime. The roof will be open during the day here on Sunday afternoon. Jeremy Hellickson is a bad fit for these conditions. He has struggled with giving up the long ball too much in his career. I think the Pirates will tag him for several runs here. Francisco Liriano is a quality lefty, but the Diamondbacks are better against lefties than righties. Take advantage of this low number. Take the over big! 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Milwaukee Brewers have a very banged up lineup right now. Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy are two of the team's three best hitters, and they are on the disabled list right now. Yadier Molina is questionable for this one with an injury for St. Louis. Lance Lynn has been spectacular against Milwaukee in the past. In 40 innings in his career at Miller Park, Lynn has an ERA of only 1.80. Mike Fiers is an underrated starter, and he has an ERA below 2 in his career against the Cardinals. With both offenses banged up, a total set at 8 looks too high with these two on the mound.

The under is 7-0 in Lynn's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in Fiers' last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB Moneyline Game of MONTH* The Washington Nationals have dropped the first two games in this series. There's no question that Washington is the better of these two teams, and over the course of the season that will show. Gio Gonzalez is a good stopper to have going in the series finale here. Gonzalez is from near Miami, and he has pitched extremely well against the Marlins in the past. How good has he been? In 54 innings against the Marlins, he has a sparkling 1.67 ERA. The Marlins offense hasn't been good against lefties, and he is a good one. Miami starts Dan Haren here, and he isn't a reliable pitcher at this stage in his career. His peripherals suggest that regression is coming soon. The Nationals have shown lots of resilience in this position, and I expect to see it again on Sunday.

Washington is 4-0 in their last 4 after losing the first two games of the series. They are 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts against Miami. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games. A 13-0 angle. Take Washington big! 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The San Diego Padres are clearly a much better baseball team than they were last year. Derek Norris is an under the radar pickup that has paid big dividends already. We know Matt Kemp and Justin Upton are going to be great for this lineup as they have already. Yasiel Puig re-injured his hamstring last night, and I think chances are slim that he'll play in this game. Ian Kennedy is an underrated starter who is making his first start of the season. Brandon McCarthy is a little bit overrated in my opinion. McCarthy is a decent pitcher, but for him to be laying money on the road with one of the team's best players likely out doesn't make sense. I'll take the dog. Take San Diego. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Colorado Rockies have won their last five meetings at Coors Field with the San Francisco Giants. There is no doubt that San Francisco has a better pitching staff than Colorado, but the problem for them is their offense. San Francisco's offense has a hard time keeping up with Colorado's offense in Colorado. The Rockies sat out Troy Tulowitzki in game one and still picked up the victory. He'll play here and the Rockies should be at full strength. Tim Hudson has been terrible at Coors Field. In 8 career starts there, he has a 7.29 ERA. I don't think it will go well for him here either. Jorge De La Rosa was bombed last start, but he has a very good history at Coors Field, and the Rockies are 8-2 in his last 10 starts vs. the Giants.

The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 at Coors Field. They are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. The Rockies are 48-10 in De La Rosa's last 58 home starts. Take Colorado. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is one of the best hitters parks in the big leagues when the roof is open. The roof will be open with the game time temperature in the low 80's here. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 15 miles per hour. You couldn't get better conditions for an over here. Rubby De La Rosa was blasted by a bad Giants lineup earlier this year at Chase Field, and the Pirates offense is improving of late. Pittsburgh has some pretty good hitters, and I expect them to do well here. A.J. Burnett is good at PNC Park, but pitching at Chase Field is a whole different animal. The ball will be flying well here. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the majors. They should finish in the top three or four in runs scored this year. Baltimore's offense isn't bad either with Manny Machado heating up and Adam Jones hitting it well. Justin Masterson is always on the edge of giving up a big inning the way he allows base runners to get on. Wei Yin Chen is a decent pitcher, but he doesn't have good out pitches to put away quality hitters like the Red Sox have.  Boston crushes left-handed pitching. I didn't expect to be able to get this total at just 8.5. I think this game gets to at least 10 runs. 

The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 vs. lefties. The over is 7-0-1 in Baltimore's last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a home favorite of -150 or less. A 17-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland Athletics lost a heartbreaker last night in extra innings at home against Houston. The Astros are certainly a much better team than they have been in the past, but they aren't going to keep winning at the pace they are on right now. Houston's bullpen isn't deep, and last night's game going into extras hurts them here. Graveman has a high upside for Oakland, which is something I can't say about Scott Feldman. Feldman has been absolutely awful against Oakland in his career. In 53 and 1/3 innings pitching at Oakland (a pitcher's park) he has an ERA of 7.59. The Astros are 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. Oakland. Lay the short price. Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play on Angels -1.5* This is a fade of Wandy Rodriguez. The guy was constantly crushed last season, and I don't see things getting better for him as he ages. Los Angeles' lineup has a lot of guys that can crush left-handed pitching (Trout and Freese in particular). Garrett Richards has a pretty decent bullpen backing him up, and the Angels have the potential to put up a very big number here. Since the moneyline is too expensive, I'm playing the run line. Take the Angels -1.5. 

*5 Star Late Night TOP Play CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angels offense is a very good one. The Angels can put up runs in bunches when the opposing pitcher is off his game at all. Wandy Rodriguez was terrible last year, and while he had pretty good numbers this spring, those numbers often don't translate into the games that mean something. The Angels are good against lefties and I see them feasting on Rodriguez here. Garrett Richards is a good pitcher, but he's still working his way back from an injury. He struggled with his command in his minor league rehab start and he did the exact same thing vs. Houston in his start five days ago. The Rangers offense isn't elite, but they still have enough to piece together some scoring chances. This total at just 7.5 is very surprising. I think 8.5 or 9 is where this should be. 

The over is 3-0-1 in Richards' last 4 home starts vs. Texas. The over is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 home games. The over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the over big! 

*4 Star Play on Pirates ML* I'm really high on Cole. He has a tremendous upside as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. Arizona's offense isn't very good outside of Goldschmitt. The Pirates have been up and down so far this year, but I still think the Pirates have the better lineup from top to bottom. Pittsburgh has the huge bullpen advantage as well. I think this line should be more like -140, so I like the value on it. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Washington Nationals are better than their record would indicate. This team isn't going to be below .500 for very long. Washington's pitching staff is just amazing from top to bottom. They slipped up a couple times against the Cardinals, but playing Miami is a large step down. Mat Latos is struggling with his command right now, and the Nationals offense is starting to get healthy. Jordan Zimmerman is an underrated pitcher who is typically very consistent. Zimmerman has an ERA of 2.66 in his career when pitching in Miami. Huge pitching edge for the Nats makes this a good value at such a short price.

The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games in Miami. The Nationals are 8-1 in Zimmerman's last 9 starts vs. the NL East. A 13-1 angle. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The New York Mets are definitely a better team than they were last year, but they aren't even close to as good as they've looked so far this year. They are without David Wright now, and their lineup is really weak on paper. They've found ways to score runs lately, but it should be tougher sledding against the Yankees this weekend. The Mets have benefited from an easy schedule of late, and the Yankees are playing good baseball. I like Jacob Degrom, so this is no fade of him, rather it's just a fade of the Mets at this price. Pineda is a quality pitcher, and I don't see the Mets scoring many. The Yankees lineup is good, and I think this price is too cheap. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The San Francisco Giants offense is a mess right now. The Dodgers have Yasiel Puig back in the lineup. Los Angeles has a big edge offensively here. Bolsinger is a bit of an unknown, but he has pitched pretty well in the minors. Ryan Vogelsong is a guy I don't trust. I think his stuff is getting worse. The Dodgers lost last night in tough fashion, and I think this is a great shot for them to bounce back quickly against their rivals. The Dodgers have proven great at bouncing back in the past. They are 39-18 in their last 57 following a loss. Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets keep finding ways to win games. They won it late last night over Atlanta. The Mets are certainly improved, but I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate. Atlanta isn't a good team either though, and the Braves offense is starting to come back down to earth. The Braves lineup isn't good, and Bartolo Colon has great numbers against nearly everyone in this Atlanta lineup. Teheran is a quality pitcher for Atlanta, and he has pitched well against the Mets in the past. It's a get away day which means we could easily see a couple key bats out of the lineup here. The under is 6-2 in Teheran's last 8 starts vs. the Mets. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners offense is a lot better with Nelson Cruz in the middle of the lineup. Cruz can make a pitcher pay for a mistake in a hurry. Seth Smith was an underrated pickup for this team as well. Smith really hits it well off right-handed pitching. Houston's lineup is gradually improving, and they are much better against left-handed pitching. Springer is a star in the making, and the Astros have several quality right-handed bats. J.A. Happ and Roberto Hernandez aren't good pitchers at all. A total set this low with these guys, and I'm taking the over. Both bullpens have struggled of late as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres have taken the first two games in this series. This is a four game series. San Diego is a much better team than they have been in the past, because now they can score runs. Matt Kemp and Justin Upton in the middle of the order is a big change from what the Padres have had in the past few seasons. James Shields also gives them a big game pitcher who normally doesn't get rattled. Colorado's offense is very good, and this could be a high scoring game, but the Padres have a huge pitching edge and a huge advantage in the bullpen. Kyle Kendrick has a 6.33 ERA in 7 starts at Coors Field. 

The Padres are 4-0 in their last vs. the NL West. Colorado is 0-4 in their last 4 home games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a division foe. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first two games in a series. The Rockies are 0-4 in Jim Joyce's last 4 games behind home plate. He's behind the plate here. A 32-0 angle. Take San Diego. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the MONTH* The Kansas City Royals send their worst starting pitcher out to take on the Minnesota Twins worst starting pitcher here. Jeremy Guthrie has had an ERA well above 4 at Kaufman Stadium the last two seasons despite the fact that he plays in front of one of the best defenses in baseball. Guthrie is past his prime now, and the Twins lineup is better than they were last year. Mike Pelfrey has been even worse than Guthrie. Pelfrey isn't a good starter at all, and his worst month of the year in his big league career has been April (5.28). Pelfrey has a 9.49 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. I don't see how the oddsmakers came up with a total of 8 runs for a game like this. This is a neutral park and we have a neutral home plate umpire. I think a total of 9 or even 9.5 would have made more sense. Take the over big! 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Boston Red Sox have one of the best lineups in the majors this year. Boston is going to pile up the runs in a lot of different locations this year. I won with the Red Sox last night, but it wasn't because of that offense. It was because they blanked the Rays 1-0. Boston's offense should wake up against the youngster Nate Karns. Karns has been allowing far too many baserunners so far this year, and the Red Sox are the type of team that usually makes pitchers pay for that. Joe Kelly has been solid this year, and the Rays offense isn't very impressive.

Boston is 4-0 in Kelly's last 4 road starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. Tampa Bay is 0-4 in their last 4. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. They are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog. A 37-1 angle. Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals are a much better team than they showed early this year. Washington is going to win a lot of games this year. Doug Fister has a brilliant 1.97 ERA in 14 career starts in Washington DC. He does a great job using this spacious park to his benefit. John Lackey is a good pitcher, but he's not elite at this point in his career. St. Louis certainly is a good team, but for Washington to be almost even money against anyone at home with a terrific pitcher on the mound is too much value for me to pass. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* I took the over when these two teams played last night, and I'm taking the over again here. Ubaldo Jimenez can either be brilliant or he can be awful. It's hard to predict how he'll be on any given night. He does face a really good lineup here though. Aaron Sanchez probably has a nice future in the big leagues, but he has a lot of work to do. Sanchez hasn't been good so far this year, and the Orioles offense is underrated as a unit. Both of these pitchers could give up some very big innings. I was surprised to see this total at 8.5. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle Total* The Pittsburgh Pirates blew the game late last night vs. the Chicago Cubs. This Cubs offense is clearly much better than they were a year ago. It helps having a lot more depth in the lineup. Pittsburgh's offense hasn't been very good this year, but I still believe the Pirates offense is at least as good as the league average. Jason Hammel is a mediocre pitcher who will likely have an ERA near 4.00 at the end of the season. Vance Worley should be at a similar mark, and Worley has a history of pitching poorly in the first half of the season. This total is set as if we have two great pitchers, and that isn't the case.

The over is 3-0-2 in the Cubs last 5. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in Hammel's last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-2 in the Pirates last 5. The over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 home games. The over is 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 meetings against each other. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh. A 36-0 angle. Take the over big!

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value* I don't like going against Chris Archer, because I'm high on his potential, but the value is too good here. Boston has one of the best lineups in baseball. The Red Sox are going to score runs in bunches this year. Tampa Bay's offense isn't even close to that level. Wade Miley has always been a good pitcher on the road in his career, and Miley is being underrated right now based on his bad start to the season. Archer has been significantly better on the road than at home, which makes him a slightly better fade in this spot. At plus money, Boston is my play. Take Boston. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Trevor Cahill should improve on his numbers this year now that he is facing worse offenses and playing in much more pitcher-friendly ballparks. He didn't pitch well in his first start, but he'll face a Mets team without David Wright in the middle of the lineup here. Atlanta's lineup has overperformed in a big way so far this year, but it's still early. I'm convinced this Atlanta lineup is still one of the worst in baseball. They have been terrible against lefties the last couple years. Jon Niese has been lights out at Citi Field the last two seasons. The under is 3-0-1 in Niese's last 4 home starts vs. Atlanta. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Baltimore Orioles have been a great team to back as an underdog the last two seasons. Buck Showalter's team is playing pretty good baseball right now, and they aren't intimidated by anyone. Bud Norris was blasted in his first start, but his numbers against Toronto have been pretty good in the past. Mark Buehrle has had a nice career, but he is aging and he allows a bunch of base runners. The Toronto bullpen should end up being one of the worst bullpens in the majors this year. The Orioles are 4-0 in Norris' last 4 starts as an underdog. Jose Reyes is questionable for this one, and if he misses this one that's another reason to take Baltimore. The price is a good one. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals are definitely a good team, but they are getting a little too much respect here. Washington started the season slowly, but the Nationals are going to win a ton of games this year. Washington has the best rotation in baseball, and they have one of the best bullpens as well. The offense is starting to come around now that they are getting healthy. Gio Gonzalez has a 2.87 ERA in his career in 43 starts at Nationals Park in Washington D.C. Lance Lynn has a 2.78 home ERA, but a 4.08 ERA on the road in his career. 

St. Louis is 0-4 in Lynn's last 4 road starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 as a road underdog. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. They are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. A 25-0 angle. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION Play* The Toronto Blue Jays have one of the best offenses in the major leagues. This is a team that can put together big innings at any time. Baltimore's offense is much better than most people realize. With Manny Machado healthy and swinging it well, this offense is much more dangerous. Mark Buehrle has a 5.19 ERA against the Orioles in the last three seasons. There won't be too many games lined at 8.5 with the Blue Jays involved this year and no elite pitcher on the mound. Bud Norris and Mark Buehrle are both nothing more than average pitchers at this stage of their careers.

The over is 5-0 in Norris' last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 6-0 in Norris' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Buehrle's last 4 Tuesday starts. The over is 7-0 in his last 7 following a quality start. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 during game one of a series. A 27-0 angle. Take the over.  

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies were swept out of Los Angeles. They return home to Coors Field, where they have always been a much better bet. Colorado's offense was blanked yesterday, but they are loaded with talent and they'll pile up the runs this year. Despaigne starts for the Padres, and his home vs. road splits are striking. He has a home ERA of 1.64 in his career and a road ERA of 5.31. He's on the road here, and he's in the most hitter friendly park of them all. Jorge De La Rosa has been lights out at Coors Field the last few years. How good? The Rockies are 48-9 in his last 57 home starts. De La Rosa has done a nice job pitching in this park, and the Padres are a bit banged up right now on offense. 

The Padres are 0-4 in Despaigne's last 4 road starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts as an underdog. Colorado is 9-0 in their last 9 as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 9-0 in their last 9 as a home favorite. The Rockies are 9-0 in De La Rosa's last 9 home starts vs. the Padres. A 35-0 angle. Take Colorado. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cleveland Indians haven't played as well early this season as they did last year, but this is a quality team. I'm confident they will get it going. Trevor Bauer has always had really good stuff, and he appears to be breaking out a bit early this year. The White Sox have a free swinging offense, and that works to his advantage. John Danks starts here for the White Sox. Danks has a terrible history against Cleveland. In 23 career starts, Danks has a 5.19 ERA against the Indians. His ERA against the Indians in the last four years is an abysmal 5.59. Huge pitching advantage for Cleveland, and this price is off.

The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less. The Indians are 4-0 in Bauer's last 4 after a quality start. The White Sox are 1-8 in Danks' last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 0-4 in Danks' last 4 starts vs. the Indians. A 21-1 angle. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* When betting on Major League Baseball, it's all about value. Over the course of the season, the most important thing is getting a good value, especially on moneyline plays. Moneyline sports are different to handicap than point spread sports. Why do I talk about value so much here? Because I see the Yankees as a nice value on Monday night. While I realize Detroit is playing very well right now, the Tigers aren't going to win 100 games and be amazing. They do have some holes on their team. C.C. Sabathia has pitched far better than his stats would indicate this year. Alfredo Simon isn't as good as he has looked early in the year, and he is due for some regression. I put the Yankees chances of winning at right about 50/50, and that means this plus money price is a nice value. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Mariners offense has been a huge disappointment so far this year. Nelson Cruz is crushing the baseball, but the rest of the lineup is scuffling. Ross Detwiler isn't a good pitcher, but he's not as bad as he's pitched in his first couple outings. Seattle struggles against left-handed pitching. James Paxton has been great when pitching at Safeco in his career. Paxton has an amazing 1.85 ERA in 8 career starts at home. Texas' lineup is way down from what they were a couple years ago. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he's been a tremendous umpire for under bettors. The under is 25-5 in his last 30 Sunday games behind the dish. He has a huge strike zone which should help both pitchers.

The under is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as an underdog of +151 to +200. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 as a -151 to -200 favorite. The under is 5-0 in Paxton's last 5 home starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies have one of the best lineups in baseball. With Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki both healthy, this is an offense that can do some real damage. Now that Arrenado is becoming real force it makes this offense that much better. The Rockies are going to score a bunch of runs this year. Eddie Butler starts here for the Rockies, and I think it's only a matter of time before we finally see that he isn't very good. He is due for some major regression after some extremely lucky results in his first couple starts. Brandon McCarthy is very prone to giving up the long ball, and the Rockies have plenty of guys who can make him pay. Both teams have the ability to put up big innings. 

The over is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 when their opponent scores 5 or more runs last game. The over is 8-0 in the Rockies last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in the Dodgers last 5 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The over is 9-0 in the Dodgers last 9 home games vs. a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage on the road. A 28-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks have a great hitter in Paul Goldschmidt, but the rest of their lineup isn't any good. San Francisco's offense has been really bad so far this season. Buster Posey is great in the middle of the order, but this lineup misses Sandoval, and they probably miss the injured Hunter Pence even more. Tim Hudson generally throws it well early in the season, and in his career against Arizona (13 starts), he has a stellar 2.01 ERA. Jeremy Hellickson should benefit from the spacious AT&T Park versus Chase Field. Dan Iassogna as the home plate umpire is a nice bonus too. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cincinnati Reds started 4-0 this year, but they are only 5-5 now after playing some bad baseball the last few days. St. Louis has owned the Reds of late, especially when they play at Busch Stadium. Homer Bailey is a guy I'm pretty high on in general, but if there is one team that is Homer Bailey's kryptonite, it has been the St. Louis Cardinals. In 9 career starts at Busch Stadium, Bailey has a 5.74 ERA. Last year, he had a 6.46 ERA against the Cardinals in three starts. This is Bailey's first start of the year as he comes back from an injury. Carlos Martinez is a solid young pitcher with good stuff. The pitching matchup here favors St. Louis. The Cardinals have a better lineup than the Reds as well. The Reds are 19-45 in their last 64 games in St. Louis. 

Cincinnati is 0-6 in Bailey's last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. They are 0-5 in his last 5 vs. the NL Central. They are 0-4 in his last 4 Saturday starts. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. They are 4-0 in Martinez's last 4 starts as a favorite. The Reds are 1-8 in Bailey's last 9 starts at St. Louis. A 31-1 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins start Phil Hughes here, and Hughes has become a brand new pitcher in his time in Minnesota. He has been pounding the strike zone, and he does a much better job keeping the ball in the ballpark than he did in the past. The Indians haven't had much success off him in the past. Cleveland starts Danny Salazar. Salazar has a really high upside, and the Tribe expect big things from him. Neither of these offenses are particularly great. The weather here calls for wind blowing in from center field at 15 miles per hour. Gibson is a good home plate umpire for the under as well.

The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 road games. The under is 7-0-1 in Hughes' last 8 starts after giving up 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star TGIF Play of Day* The Washington Nationals have the best pitching staff in baseball, and I don't think it's particularly close. On the other hand, Washington's offense is bad right now. Washington is missing some key players from the lineup, and without them they are struggling to score. Philadelphia probably has the worst lineup in baseball, and the Phillies are up against one of baseball's best pitchers here. Max Scherzer should mow down this lineup in short order, especially in the pitcher-friendly park in Washington DC. Sean O'Sullivan pitched well against the Nationals last time out. I don't trust O'Sullivan very much, but there is another key reason I like the under here. That is the presence of Ron Kulpa behind home plate. Kulpa is one of the very best under umpires in the business. He loves to call strikes, and that should lead to more punch outs than normal for both pitchers.

The under is 2-0-2 in the Phillies last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in the Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The under is 4-0 in the Nats last 4 home games with a total set between 7 and 8.5. The under is 3-0-1 in the Nats last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers meet in the third and final game of this series. The Milwaukee offense has been a major disappointment so far this year. Carlos Gomez left last night's game with an injury and he's questionable for this one. Gomez is the table setter for this lineup, and without him they would be much weaker. John Lackey was excellent in Busch Stadium last year (2.38 ERA). Mike Fiers has been a really good pitcher the last couple years for Milwaukee. Fiers has been almost unhittable against the Cardinals. He has a 1.30 ERA vs. the Cardinals in 27 and 2/3 innings of work. His deceptive delivery seems to really bother St. Louis. John Hirschbeck is the umpire behind home plate here and he's a great under umpire because of his large strike zone. It's get away day here, which means some key players could get a day off.

The under is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 games as an underdog. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 6-0 in Fiers last 6 starts as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts during game three of a series. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres are clearly a much better offense than they were last year. When you add guys like Justin Upton and Matt Kemp to the lineup, there will be a big increase in production. Chase Anderson could be a good pitcher in time, but he has been roughed up on the road in his young career. He has a good change up, but he needs to work on his other pitches. Brandon Morrow hasn't been a consistent starter in his career. He was brilliant in his first start of the year, but he's done this before and then been blasted in the next start many times throughout his career. Marvin Hudson is the umpire here, and he has a small strike zone which should hurt both of these guys. The biggest reason I like this play is simply the ridiculously low number. I know this is PetCo Park, but a total of 6.5 with these two pitchers on the mound just doesn't make sense. Based on pure value alone, I have to take the over here.

The over is 6-0 in Anderson's last 6 starts on 4 days rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 following a win. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night MONEY* The San Diego Padres are a much better team than they were last year. Arizona should end up being one of the worst teams in the National League this year. While I think Chase Anderson has a bright future, he needs to develop more pitches to go along with his changeup, and Anderson has been really bad on the road in his young career. Brandon Morrow should have much improved numbers at PetCo Park. San Diego has the much better offense and the much better bullpen. A very fair price on the home team. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians have struggled in a big way against left-handed pitching both last year and so far this year. John Danks isn't a good pitcher, but he is left-handed. Some Indians players have had good success against Danks in the past, but a couple of them that have been the best in the past (Gomes and Swisher) are on the DL right now with injuries. Trevor Bauer has the stuff to be a breakout candidate this year. Bauer looked tremendous in his first start (no hits allowed), and he has pitched well at Progressive Field in the past. Bauer has been much better during the daytime in his career (3.06 ERA) vs. the night time (5.30 ERA). Vic Carapazza is a very good under umpire and it's get away day for these two teams which is a help too.

The under is 5-0 in Bauer's last 5 starts as a home favorite. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Miami Marlins at even money here is a good value. Eric Stults isn't a good major league pitcher. He was never particularly good, and now that he is 35 years old, he's even worse. Stults isn't the type of guy who can blow it by anyone, so he solely relies on painting corners. The Marlins offense may not be a good one, but they are better than they have shown so far this year. Stanton is elite in the middle of the order, and the Marlins should get more men on base here with Stults on the mound. Dan Haren has pitched much better in his career in the first half of the season vs. the second half. He often wears down late in the year. Though the Braves have started fast, I still don't think they are a good team. Take Miami. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Drew Rucinski makes the first start of his career here for the Angels. Rucinski was hit around hard by the Rangers last September in a relief outing. While he has been good so far this year, I don't like him getting his first start in a hitter's park like Texas. The Rangers lineup isn't as good as they were a couple years ago, but they are still decent. With Shin Soo Choo healthy again that is a big boost for the Rangers. Rucinski isn't likely to go deep into the game, and the Angels bullpen isn't good. Nick Martinez is a subpar pitcher and the Angels lineup is deep and they are going to score a lot of runs this year. I don't think either starter lasts long here, and both bullpens are bad. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Matt Harvey looked absolutely amazing in his first start of the year in Washington. I realize the Nationals offense is really bad right now, but he made everyone look foolish in that game (including Bryce Harper). Harvey's stuff looked just as good as ever, and he kept his velocity all through that game. Even though the Nationals lineup is bad right now, they aren't as bad as the Phillies lineup. Harvey is pitching at home for the first time in more than a year, and I expect a great outing from him. David Buchanan got some good luck on batted balls in play last year, and I expect some regression from him this year. The Mets lineup is improved. This one is a mismatch. Take the New York Mets -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers are a good team, but they aren't as good as they have looked the first week of the season. Pittsburgh is a quality team, and they are better than they looked at the beginning of the year. Detroit clearly has a better lineup than Pittsburgh, but I think that's the only spot they have an advantage here. A.J. Burnett has pitched well at PNC Park over the years, and his splits against current Tigers players are good. Shane Greene lacks consistency as a starter at this young age. There's no doubt that Pittsburgh has the much better bullpen here. Detroit's bullpen is one of the weakest in the majors. Pittsburgh also has one of the best home field advantages in the game. 

The Pirates are 7-0 in Burnett's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the AL Central. The Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 games in Pittsburgh. A 23-0 angle. Take Pittsburgh. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oakland Athletics offense doesn't have any real big names in it, but this time finds ways to manufacture runs. Scott Feldman hasn't had much success against Oakland in the past. Another key to this game is the fact that Houston used up their bullpen in a big way on Sunday in their 14 inning win over Texas. Houston's bullpen looks very thin for this one. Oakland's Scott Kazmir is definitely capable of dominating, but this Houston offense is much better against left-handed pitching than they are against right-handers. Houston should score quite a few more runs this year as their young talent improves. 

The over is 5-0 in Oakland's last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. The over is 3-0-1 in Kazmir's last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-2 in his last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The New York Yankees are showing some solid value in this one. New York is coming off a nice performance Sunday night in a blowout win over Boston. The Yankees and Orioles are pretty similar as far as talent level this year in my opinion. This one is primarily playing a price, but a benefit is also how the Yankees have hit Wei Yin Chen in the past. Chen has an ERA over 5 against the Yankees. This Yankees lineup hits left-handed pitching better than righties. Michael Pineda has a good arm, and now that he's healthy he should have a good season. He has a really high upside. Take New York. 

*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The St. Louis Cardinals play their home opener here. Adam Wainwright was masterful in the season opener vs. Chicago. Wainwright has an ERA barely above 2 in his career against Milwaukee. The Brewers are a team that is down quite a bit from last season. Milwaukee starts Matt Garza here, and Garza was beaten up pretty good by the Cardinals bats last season. At a significant plus money price, I'll take the run line here in a game that I believe is a mismatch. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Kansas City Royals send Danny Duffy to the hill on Monday to take on Minnesota. Duffy has been lights out against the Twins in his career. In 43 innings, he has a 2.09 ERA against Minnesota. Even more impressive is his 1.35 ERA in 20 innings at Target Field. Trevor May starts here for the Twins, and the Royals have a lineup that is generally very good against left-handed pitching. May has been inconsistent in his young career, and this is a higher pressure start than normal (home opener). 

The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL Central. They are 7-0 in Duffy's last 7 during game one of a series. They are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 Monday starts. The Royals are 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts vs. Minnesota. A 27-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Baseball Total CASH* The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox meet on Sunday Night Baseball here. Boston has gotten the best of the Yankees in the first two games in this series. Rather than taking a side, I'll play the over here. Clay Buchholz was lit up by the Yankees on multiple occasions last year. He has a career ERA of 5.64 vs. the Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka didn't look right in his first start. Many observers believe he is pitching at far less than 100 percent health. The Red Sox lineup is deep. Both teams are capable of putting up a big inning at any point in this game. A total set at just 7 is too low with question marks on the pitchers and two solid offenses.

The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in Buchholz's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 overall. The over is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 after giving up 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Seattle Mariners will start Felix Hernandez in this one. Hernandez has obviously been one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball over the past few years, but he hasn't dominated any other team as much as he has dominated the Oakland Athletics. He has been at his best when pitching in Oakland. In his last 9 starts in Oakland, Hernandez has an ERA of 1.95. This Oakland lineup is scrappy, but they aren't the type of guys who generally have success against dominant stuff like King Felix has. Jesse Hahn is a solid pitcher, but he's obviously at a big disadvantage here. The Mariners are much better against right handers than lefties. The better lineup, the much better starting pitcher, and the slightly better bullpen.

Seattle is 14-3 in Hernandez's last 17 starts in Oakland. The road team is 18-8 in home plate umpire Mike DiMuro's last 26 games behind the plate. Oakland is 5-23 in their last 28 games as an underdog. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros booted the ball around enough to blow it on Saturday night defensively. They also only scored two runs on their 11 hits. I lost on the Astros yesterday, but I'm going back to them here. Houston has a massive pitching advantage here. Dallas Keuchel is a very good young left-handed starter. The way he came on late last year was amazing. He was brilliant in the season opener vs. Cleveland. Keuchel is a great ground ball pitcher, which is very good at a place like Arlington. Colby Lewis is awful when pitching in Texas. His home ERA last year was 5.90. There might be a few people starting to believe in him after nice first start in Oakland, but I'm not one of them. Houston's lineup is much improved and their bullpen is now better than the Rangers pen. 

Houston is 6-0 in Keuchel's last 6 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 vs. an AL West foe. Texas is 0-4 in their last 4 following a win. A 15-0 angle. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday Night SMASHER* The Houston Astros are definitely a team on the rise. They aren't a good team yet, but they are no longer a bottom feeder. In fact, there's a pretty decent chance they'll end up ahead of the Texas Rangers this year. Texas' offense isn't very good to start with, and they lost two key pieces yesterday. Ryan Rua will go on the DL and miss a significant amount of time. Shin Soo Choo is likely to miss this game with back spasms as well, and Choo is important for this team. Houston has a young offense with a lot of talented hitters. Yovani Gallardo doesn't have a good defense behind him anymore, and the bullpen for Texas might be the worst in the American League. At this price, Houston is a value play. Take Houston. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays have two of the weaker offenses in the big leagues. In Chris Archer and Jarred Cosart we have two quality youngsters starting on the mound in this one too. Cosart is a little less consistent than Archer, but Cosart has brilliant numbers against Tampa Bay. In 23 career innings against the Rays, Cosart has allowed a grand total of just three runs. Archer pitched 7 strong innings of one run baseball in his only career start against Miami last season. This one should be a close one, and I expect a low scoring affair.

The under is 8-0-1 in the Marlins last 9 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in the previous game. The under is 5-0 in home plate umpire Gerry Davis' last 5 Saturday games behind the dish. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Red Sox/Yankees Early MONEY* The Boston Red Sox beat the New York Yankees 6-5 in 19 innings on Friday night. That game ended after 2 AM Eastern time. The fact that New York lost that game actually makes me like this bet a little bit more. They'll be hungry to get back at their rivals from Boston, and they get a quick opportunity to do so here. Adam Warren has the potential to be a very good pitcher in his career, and I'm much higher on him than I am Joe Kelly. Kelly starts for Boston in this one. Kelly doesn't have dynamic enough stuff to get through the lineup multiple times it seems. The Yankees have the better bullpen here, which could prove important as well. Mike Muchlinski is an umpire that has been very good to home teams over the years, and that's another boost. Take New York. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's start Drew Pomeranz here and I think he's a breakout candidate this year. Pomeranz has improved his mechanics in the offseason, and if he stays healthy he has a very high upside. The exact same thing can be said about Taijuan Walker. Walker led the majors in ERA in Spring Training. While I don't like to read too much into that kind of thing, his velocity was excellent and he has nasty stuff. The Mariners have a lefty heavy lineup, which means they often struggle against left-handed pitching. Oakland's offense just isn't good, and Walker has shut down stuff. Both of these bullpens are tremendous. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets are clearly an improved team from last year. Jon Niese has been a battler throughout his career, and his dominance of the Braves in the past has been impressive. The Braves have started 3-0, but I still don't think it will be a good year for Atlanta. This Braves lineup just isn't good enough. It doesn't help Atlanta that they have Eric Stults starting in this one. He's an aging pitcher who tries to nibble at the corners, but he doesn't have good enough stuff. The Mets lineup is improved and they are a much better offense than Atlanta. The only big advantage Atlanta has here is in the bullpen, but I think the Mets will grab a lead early and hold on.

The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 as a home underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 Friday games. The Mets are 2-0 in Niese's last 2 starts against Atlanta. A 15-0 angle. Take the New York Mets. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Texas Rangers don't have the same strong offense they had a few years ago. Colin McHugh was a huge surprise last year, and while many continue to doubt him, he looked great again in Spring Training. Derek Holland is a good lefty, and he has solid numbers in his career against Houston. With the temperature still not very high, Rangers Stadium isn't the hitter-friendly park that it will be later in the season. I look for both starters to work deep into this one. The under is 13-6 in Holland's last 19 home starts. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Cleveland Indians have their home opener on Friday afternoon. Zach McAllister gets the ball for the Tribe. His stuff has looked really good in the Spring, with his velocity being up significantly from past years. Detroit looked good against Minnesota, but Cleveland is a big step up from Minnesota. Alfredo Simon is a guy who is likely to regress from last year's numbers. Cleveland has a very left-handed hitting heavy lineup, and that should help them a lot against Simon. I see Cleveland as the team to beat in the American League Central thanks to their overall team balance. McAllister is underrated and the Indians deserve to be laying a bigger price than this. Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles have their home opener on Friday afternoon. Bud Norris will start in this one. Norris has high quality stuff, but he can be inconsistent. One thing that really stands out to me is how well he has pitched against the Blue Jays in the past. Norris had a stellar 2.36 ERA in 34 and 1/3 innings against Toronto last year. Mark Buehrle starts for the Jays here, and he has been hit hard by the Orioles recently. He has an ERA a little bit above 5 in his last four starts against the Orioles. A ton of the Baltimore lineup has hit him well. Rain is expected at some point in this game, which could benefit the Orioles even more. There's no question Baltimore has the better bullpen here, and if it turns into a bullpen game the Orioles are the side to favor.

Toronto is 0-5 in Buehrle's last road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 10-1 in Norris' last 11 starts during game one of a series. The Orioles are 6-0 in Norris' last 6 vs. Toronto. They are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. Toronto. A 25-1 angle. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Boston Red Sox lineup was quieted last night by Aaron Harang. That one surprised me quite a bit. I don't see it happening two nights in a row, especially with David Buchanan on the hill for Philadelphia. Buchanan is notorious for allowing a lot of base runners. The Red Sox should have plenty of opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position. The Phillies offense is one of the worst in the majors. Boston's Justin Masterson appears to have some of his command back that he lacked last year. Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals have the best pitching staff in baseball, and it isn't even close. Stephen Strasburg starts on day three for this team. Strasburg has had a bit of bad luck in recent years, but he still has tremendous stuff and has a really high upside. Strasburg has made six career starts against the Mets and he has a 2.19 ERA in those starts. Matt Harvey starts for the Mets in this one, and he is getting a bunch of respect. He deserves respect, but we need to remember that he isn't likely to be around for a long time here. The Mets will be extremely careful with Harvey. If he is only around 5 innings or so, that means 4 innings of work for a Met bullpen that has tons of injury problems and they are a weakness right now. Washington has one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Nationals are 5-1 in Strasburg's six career starts against the Mets. At this very short price, I like the home team here. Take Washington.

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres are much improved offensively. They aren't quite as deep in the rotation, but Andrew Cashner has top notch stuff. When Cashner is healthy, he has the stuff capable of being an ace. Cashner has good numbers against the Dodgers. He pitched very well in Spring Training, while Brandon McCarthy struggled. San Diego owns a massive advantage in the bullpen, so if this game is tight late that is a good sign. The Dodgers lineup isn't quite as a good as it was last year, and McCarthy has always been an inconsistent pitcher. Cashner isn't getting the respect he deserves. This is a really nice value on the underdog. Take San Diego. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* Sometimes you just have to play a price in baseball. While I realize the Oakland Athletics deserve to be the favorite, seeing them at -165 or -170 shocked me. Scott Kazmir isn't a guy who can be trusted. Kazmir can either go out and totally shut down the opponent, or he could get bombed. Texas starts a decent pitcher in Detwiler here, and Oakland's offense isn't good at all. At this price, I can't pass up the underdog. This is a play on a price alone, and in the long run in baseball finding values like this one will end up making you money. Take Texas. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jeremy Hellickson will make his first start for the Diamondbacks here. Hellickson has always been a really inconsistent pitcher, and I'm not high on him with a worse defense behind him now and in what is a hitter-friendly ballpark. Chris Heston starts here for the Giants. Not many scouts are high on Heston's long-term potential in the big leagues. The Giants have had a bunch of pitching injuries, and that has led to him starting in this one. Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open, and with a total set this low with two questionable pitchers, I like the over quite a bit. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals are probably down a notch or two from last year, but I don't think they are down as much as the betting market seems to think. They are a very small favorite against Jose Quintana, who they have hit very well in the past. Most of the guys in the Royals lineup have good lifetime numbers against him. Danny Duffy has been great at home much of his career. Duffy also has a 0.71 ERA in his career with home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt behind the dish. Duffy has a nice 3.24 ERA in his career vs. the White Sox. Chicago is better this year, but I still don't think they are an above average team. The Royals have a huge bullpen advantage.

Chicago is 0-5 in Quintana's last 5 starts vs. the Royals. The White Sox are 0-5 in his last 5 Wednesday starts. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series. A 19-0 angle. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The Houston Astros blanked the Cleveland Indians in game one of this series. Cleveland struggles against lefties and Houston had a good one going in Dallas Keuchel in that game. This time around it is Scott Feldman on the mound. Feldman is a below average big league pitcher, and the Indians lineup should be hungry to get some rallies going. Carlos Carrasco starts for the Indians here. I really like Carrasco's upside potential. He has made two starts against Houston in his career and he's allowed a grand total of one run in those starts. Cleveland should have a good season this year, and at this price I like them on the road against a Houston team that still isn't all that great. Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Eddie Butler is one of the worst starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. He hasn't shown an ability to be particularly good in the minors, but the Rockies don't have any pitching depth so they have him in the majors starting in game three. Milwaukee has lost the first two games of this series, and the Brewers do have a decent lineup. I expect them to put up plenty of runs here. Colorado's offense is really good when healthy. There probably isn't a better back to back combo in the majors than Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. The umpire here is CB Bucknor, and he is a small over umpire in my book. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Sweeper Side* The Baltimore Orioles are looking for a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays in this one. We're getting a better price than we should based on the numbers of this one. The primary reason for that is likely the fact that bettors are assuming Tampa Bay should win here because they are playing to avoid a sweep. That's certainly extra motivation, but how good is this Tampa Bay team right now? They have an unproven manager working with a questionable roster. Buck Showalter is one of the best in the business, and he gets the most out of this Orioles team. Miguel Gonzalez has an ERA well under 3 at Tampa Bay. The Orioles are 7-3 in Gonzalez's last 10 starts vs. Tampa Bay.Take Baltimore.