*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has seemed pretty good so far this year, but they have had some tremendous luck. Atlanta has allowed just a .226 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is the lowest BABIP allowed in baseball, and the second lowest is all the way up at .241. 

Parker Messick is a very highly rated prospect for Cleveland, and he is showing why right now. Messick looked good late last year, and now he is dealing to start this season. Messick is a strike thrower who has great spin rates and run values. He has great movement on his pitches. The Cleveland bullpen is still one of the best in the majors.

Martin Perez is far past his prime, and the Cleveland lineup has hit him very well in his career. The Braves bullpen is weaker than the Cleveland bullpen.

I'll take the plus money price here.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense is averaging only 2.8 runs per game this season. Cincinnati is winning games on the back of their pitching.

Eury Perez has drastic splits (home/away) in his career. Perez has a 2.54 career ERA at home. He has a 5.03 career ERA on the road. Perez induces a lot of swings and misses, and this Reds lineup will strike out a lot this season.

Brady Singer has given the Reds solid innings in his time with the team. The Marlins have a very high batting average on balls in play rate and I think they will regress a bit on offense in the coming weeks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams rank 19th and 25th in the majors in batting average on balls in play. They have been unlucky so far this year. The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball. The Angels have a decent amount of pop, and they have a history of being good offensively at home in recent seasons.

Kikuchi has started the season in poor form. He is a very streaky pitcher. He has walked five batters in just 9 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. Kikuchi has allowed a pretty high .344 weighted on base average against this Braves lineup in his career.

Lopez has a long history against this Angels lineup, and he has been terrible against. In 105 plate appearances against this group, Lopez has allowed a whopping .421 wOBA. Soler has 13 hits in 22 at bats against him. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Washington* Pallante is one of the worst starters in the majors. He also has a low swinging strike rate. Littell gives up a lot of hits, but he doesn't walk hardly anyone. 

The Nationals are a bad team, but they are a home underdog against one of the worst starters in the majors. I have to look toward the plus money price in this one. 

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics are playing their home games at Sutter Park again. This is clearly a very hitter friendly park. It was second in the majors in highest park factor for runs scored last year (behind only Coors Field). 

Cristian Javier is a really inconsistent pitcher. The A's offense hasn't been good this year, but there is a lot of young talent and I expect them to get things going.

Springs is a mediocre starter for the Athletics. The Astros are good against left handed pitching. 

This game has real potential to be very high scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joe Ryan is a clearly above average starter who has been good starting out seasons in his career. He has great breaking stuff and is a high strikeout guy. The Royals have a lot of high strikeout batters in their lineup. Ryan has great career stats vs. this Royals lineup. 

The Twins offense is boom or bust with high strikeout guys, but quite a bit of power.

The weather here should matter with winds flipping around and blowing in pretty hard during this game with some potential rain falling as well. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here.

Take the under. 

(3 Unit Play on Reds ML) The Cincinnati Reds start Brandon Williamson here. Williamson has good stuff and is backed by a bullpen that has some solid depth. The Pirates lineup is one of the weakest in the majors. I think Williamson can navigate his way through this lineup. 

Chandler is a good arm for the Pirates, but the Pirates are likely to struggle to back him with many runs. I don't think the Pirates should be a road favorite against a decent Reds team. 

The Reds aren't being priced as the better team here, and I think they are the better team.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Athletics start Jacob Lopez here. Lopez was one of the most underrated starters in the majors late last season. He does a great job inducing soft contact. 

Bryce Elder has been a subpar starter the last couple seasons. While they haven't really shown it so far, I still think the Athletics lineup is an above average group. I think Lopez is the better starting pitcher of the two here, even if he doesn't have the same name recognition at this point.

This is a game I think is 50/50, and we are getting a pretty nice plus money price.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather is extremely warm for this early in the season in Kansas City. An average temperature of 85 degrees with the wind blowing out here at 18 mph on average during this game. That is very helpful for run production.

Woods Richardson can't pitch deep into games very often, and the Twins bullpen is a mess. They have been used heavily, and they are one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

The Twins do have some power against left handed pitching. I think they can go deep some in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics have a fantastic young lineup. The Athletics have a lot of power and they are excellent against left handed pitching. Look for the A's to have quite a few scoring chances here, and all it takes is one deep shot with guys on base to potentially put up a big number here. 

The Blue Jays lineup is still fantastic too. The Blue Jays should put a lot of pressure on a youngster like Morales. Morales pitched poorly in Spring Training.

Both bullpens have been extremely heavily used in recent games. Some of the key guys won't pitch here.

Two top six or eight offenses here and a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Texas Rangers won't be underdogs very often with Jacob Degrom on the mound. Degrom has been excellent early in the season throughout his career. He also owns an impressive .215 batting average allowed and .269 weighted on base average allowed against the Phillies lineup in his career. 

The Philadelphia Phillies start Aaron Nola here. Nola has a 6.57 ERA in the month of March in his career. He is a good starting pitcher, but his best outings have not come early in the season. He has often struggled with poor control early in the season. 

Texas is an above average team and I'll take the plus money price.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be way down this year. The Cardinals lineup will be one of the worst in the majors. Masyn Winn is their cleanup hitter and they are really lacking in on base percentage type guys at the top of the other as well.

St. Louis starts Liberatore here. While he isn't a bad pitcher, he doesn't have top of the line type stuff either. The Rays do have a couple big bats in the lineup in Caminero and Diaz. 

Drew Rasmussen has been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball the last couple seasons. Rasmussen had a 1.02 WHIP last year and a 2.76 ERA. He gives them the pitching edge in this one.

The Rays are a mediocre team, while the Cardinals could be a bottom three or four team in baseball.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two of the top three offenses in baseball, and Dodger Stadium is a hitter friendly venue on the whole The shadows here will be talked about and it could be an issue for some of the game, but start times at Dodger Stadium near this time have actually trended toward the over.

Max Scherzer isn't even close to the pitcher he once was, and he has a weakness against left handed hitting now. The Dodgers have elite lefties who are going to make things tough on Scherzer in this contest.

Tyler Glasnow is a good starter, but he doesn't usually pitch as deep in the game as most starters. The Blue Jays should work the count and score some runs here. Both Guerrero Jr. and Springer have had a lot of success against Glasnow in their history. 

I don't trust either bullpen all that much, and I think we'll see plenty of both of them.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays had one of the top two or three offenses in baseball this season. Toronto has a bunch of power in the lineup, and they woke up in a big way on Wednesday. George Springer had an excellent season starting things out right for the Jays at the top of the order. He had 3 hits on Wednesday. Vlad Guerrero Jr. went 4 for 4 with a walk on Wednesday. 

Seattle's lineup is better than average, and they have a lot of home run power also. Max Scherzer starts in this one, and Scherzer has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his last six starts. Scherzer hasn't thrown since September 24th, so he is way off his normal schedule. Scherzer was once a dominant starter, but at 41 years old he is far from what he was 5 years ago. 

Luis Castillo has pitched well in recent outings, but he faced a lot of weak lineups during those starts. This is a stacked Toronto lineup.

Hudson is the home plate umpire and he is a hitter friendly umpire. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Mark Wegner has consistently had one of the lowest strikeout/walk ratios in all of baseball. He is one of the most hitter friendly umpires you'll ever find. He is behind home plate for this key game between the Phillies and Dodgers.

Cristopher Sanchez is an excellent starter, but the Dodgers offense has heated up nicely of late. Tyler Glasnow has excellent stuff, but I don't think he goes more than five innings or so in this spot, and that means a lot of the Dodgers bullpen which has been weak all season long.

Dodger Stadium ranked as the fourth most hitter friendly park in baseball this year. The ball carries well here during the daytime and this is a 3:08 local time contest. 

These are two really good offenses with a low total and two worn out bullpens. A really big bonus of an over umpire too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jesus Luzardo has shown the ability to get rattled and completely lose command. The Dodgers lineup is arguably the best lineup in baseball, and they are finally like it here lately. They have consistently put up really good offensive numbers in the last 6-8 games. Betts has woken up and that makes it a lot tougher for the opposing starter. 

The Philadelphia Phillies averaged 5.30 runs per game at home this year. This is a hitter friendly park, especially with the weather we see here today. A warm temperature in the mid 70's in October and a slight wind blowing out at about 7 mph here.

Blake Snell is a strong starter,  but the Dodgers bullpen is still a big weakness. The Phillies bullpen has been shaky of late too.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate, and he is a very hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*2 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres bullpen is extremely deep. If Yu Darvish can give them four innings or so in this one, I think the Padres have an advantage and they are an underdog on the moneyline here. 

Darvish has been at his best in the postseason in recent years. He had a 1.98 ERA in the postseason last year, and he has an ERA below 2.5 in 38 and 2/3 innings pitched with the Padres in the postseason from 2022 and 2024 combined.

The Cubs offense has been very weak down the stretch, and I trust the Padres offense led by Tatis and Machado more right now. Kyle Tucker isn't healthy and Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a shell of his former self in the past month. 

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians +1.5* The posted total here is 6. We nearly never see a total set so low, but I completely understand why this one is set so low. The wind is blowing in at about 11 mph in Cleveland. Both pitchers are throwing the ball very well.

Gavin Williams is underrated as a starting pitcher. Williams has allowed a .188 batting average and has a 2.18 ERA in the second half of the season. Williams has dominated this Tigers lineup too. In 138 plate appearances, the Tigers have a .168 batting average and a .230 wOBA against Williams. 

Skubal is terrific, but the Tigers bullpen has been awful in the last couple months. They have been a bottom ten bullpen in baseball, while they are up against the Guardians who have the best bullpen FIP in that time. 

Detroit was bottom six in baseball in all major offensive categories in the last month. Skubal is great, but the team around him hasn't been good. 

I like this to be low scoring, so I'll take the +1.5.

Take Cleveland +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* Janson Junk consistently gives up about 3 runs in 5 or 6 innings. He is a mediocre starting pitcher. He's going up against a red hot Phillies lineup. Philadelphia is hitting the ball as well as any team in baseball. They are having very high scoring games of late. In fact, 12 of the Phillies last 14 games have gone above this posted total. 

Walker Buehler is coming off a couple better starts, but the totality of his work is very poor this season. The Miami Marlins offense has been on fire in recent games as well. Miami's young lineup is really producing in a big way late in the season.

The wind is blowing out here and there is some rain in the forecast. The middle relief for both teams is questionable if there is a rain delay.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Stephen Kolek here. Kolek has a 1.67 ERA and a 2.07 FIP in his last four starts. Kolek has 3 walks/19 strikeouts in those outings and he has allowed 0 home runs. He does a good job inducing soft contact.

Yusei Kikuchi is an up and down pitcher, but his numbers are much better at home. Kikuchi has absolutely dominated this Royals lineup too. Kansas City's lineup has a .192 weighted on base average in 61 plate appearances against him. 

Zach Neto is a key guy at the top of the order for the Angels, and he is out for the season. The Angels bottom of the order is one of the worst in the majors.

Kansas City has been very poor against lefties this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians +1.5* The Cleveland Guardians have won 9 of their last 10 games. The Detroit Tigers have lost 9 of their last 10. Now, we have a huge series between the two that will go a long way to deciding the winner of the AL Central division.

Tarik Skubal is a fantastic starting pitcher. Skubal has been slightly worse in the second half of the season, but he is very solid. The Tigers bullpen is bottom five in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days though, and the Tigers offense has gone ice cold. Skubal's second half ERA is 2.24. 

Cleveland is first in the majors in bullpen FIP in the last 30 days. The Guardians have a deep bullpen that is well rested. Gavin Williams is an underrated starting pitcher too. Williams has a second half ERA of 2.10. He has great movement on his pitches, and he has dominated this Tigers lineup. Williams has allowed a batting average of just .143 in 84 plate appearances against the Tigers.

With such a very low total and runs being at a premium, I'm going to take the +1.5 runline here on the home team.

Take Cleveland +1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Guardians ML* The Cleveland Guardians are on a roll right now. They have won 10 straight games and are just one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. It's been an amazing run led by strong starting pitching and excellent bullpen work. Cleveland has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in their last three games. 

The Guardians are also getting some great production from Naylor, Ramirez, and Kwan in recent games. 

The Minnesota Twins are 19-40 since the All Star Break. This team has nothing to play for, and they have been very lackluster of late. Minnesota's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors right now. 

Cantillo starts here for the Guardians and he has been throwing the ball really well lately. Cantillo has a 2.04 ERA in his last six starts.

The Guardians have everything to play for, while the Twins are stumbling toward the finish.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The LA Angels have lost six straight games. They have lost four straight contests by at least two runs. The Brewers have won 9-2 and 9-2 in the first two games of this series. 

Quinn Priester has been rolling right along. He has thrown the ball really well all year, and the Brewers lineup has supported him by providing a bunch of run support. The Brewers are a whopping 18-0 in Priester's last 18 starts. They have won by two runs or more in 13 of those 18 games.

The LA Angels start Kikuchi here, and he has struggled down the stretch. He has an ERA over 5 on the road this year, and Milwaukee has crushed left handed pitching. 

The Angels bullpen is spent and the Brewers have dominated at home all season.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days, and it isn't very close. The Guardians bullpen has been great though. They are first in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. 

The Guardians had seen 10 of their last 11 games stay under this total before last night's extra innings contest. 

Gavin Williams is throwing the ball well right now, and the Tigers have a terrible .225 wOBA against Williams in 77 plate appearances. 

Jack Flaherty has been up and down this year, but he has great numbers against Cleveland. He has allowed only a .239 wOBA in 89 plate appearances against the Guardians. He has pitched into some bad luck of late, with a FIP that is much lower than his ERA in the past couple months.

A slight wind blowing in here helps too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Paul Skenes here. Skenes hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. He has a 1.74 ERA in his last 10 starts. Skenes continues to have excellent control and his swinging strike rate is extremely high. He has been very good against this Cubs lineup, and I don't see any reason to expect that to change here.

Cade Horton has a 0.84 ERA in his last 10 starts. Horton has allowed 0 runs in 6 of those 10 starts. He's up against a Pirates lineup that is one of the two or three worst lineups in baseball.

The slight wind that there is in this game is blowing in from left field.

I think this has the makings of a great pitching duel between two elite young starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mitchell Parker has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors for quite some time now. Parker has a 7.94 ERA and a 6.57 FIP in his last eight starts. Parker is giving up 2.5 home runs per nine innings during that time. In Parker's last 16 starts, 12 of them have gone over this total of 9 runs. 

The Atlanta Braves start Spencer Strider. Strider hasn't been looking like his old self. He's walking way too many guys, and the swinging strike rate is down. Strider has a very poor history against the Nationals as well. This Nationals lineup has a .438 weighted on base average against Strider, and he is definitely throwing it worse this year than it he has in his career on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Angels and Marinrs just played a 12 inning game and ruined their bullpens on Thursday night. Both of the starting pitchers in this game have been struggling, and they could struggle to pitch deep into the game.

The Angels are averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last six games. The Mariners are averaging 8 runs per game in their last six games.

Kikuchi starts for the Angels, and he has been crushed of late. In fact, he has a 9.13 ERA in his last five starts. He ranks in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity for season. Seattle has several guys who have hit him very well. That includes Suarez who has 3 HR's in 12 at bats against Kikuchi.

Luis Castillo has a 7.83 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in his last five starts. Castillo has allowed 7 home runs in his last five starts. 

The bullpens are 17th and 22nd in bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. Both have used their best arms heavily in recent games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Gavin Williams here. Williams is a good young pitcher who has been pitching his best late in the season.

The Kansas City Royals are 25th in wOBA for the season. Bobby Witt Jr. is trying to play through and injury and he hasn't been himself of late.

Cleveland is last in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Guardians have struggled offensively at home all year long. 

Both defenses have been very good at saving runs and that could be key here.

The weather is calling for temperatures in the upper 60's with a light wind blowing in from center field.

Phil Cuzzi is a very good under umpire. The under is 67-44 in Cuzzi's games behind home plate since 2022. He is a strike caller and a very pitcher friendly umpire. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eury Perez is in really poor form of late. Perez has a 8.53 ERA and a 7.41 FIP in his last six starts. He has been giving up a lot of very hard hit baseballs in recent starts. The Nationals just torched him for 7 runs in 4 IP in his last start.

Washington has scored 45 runs in their last six games. The Nationals offense has absolutely caught fire. James Wood continues to hit the ball well, and Josh Bell has had an amazing resurgence in the last couple weeks. 

Jake Irvin is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Irvin has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.08 FIP in his last 9 innings pitched. Irvin has been consistently terrible, and he has been even worse away from home.

Both of these pitchers have the potential to give up big innings at any time right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cubs ML* Spencer Strider has been struggling badly of late. Strider has a 9.13 ERA and a 7.62 FIP in his last five starts. He has just 14 strikeouts in his last 23 and 2/3 innings pitched. Strider now ranks in the bottom 5% in the majors in average exit velocity allowed.

Cade Horton has been really solid in his rookie season for the Cubs. Horton has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. In his last nine starts, Horton has a sparkling 0.77 ERA. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his last nine starts.

The Cubs have a huge bullpen edge. The Braves bullpen is dead last in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. The Cubs are top five.

Take the Cubs here. 

*4 Star Play on Giants ML* The San Francisco Giants are 9-1 in their last 10. They have played the best baseball of anyone in the majors in the last couple weeks. The Giants offense has been on fire.

Justin Verlander is quietly throwing the ball well of late. Verlander has a 3.38 ERA and a 2.28 FIP in his last seven starts. Verlander's strikeout rate has gone way up in recent starts. 

Andre Pallante has been getting crushed on a regular basis of late. Pallante hasn't pitched more than 5 and 1/3 innings in his last five starts. He has a 9.82 ERA in those five starts. Pallante has a 5.91 ERA on the year at home too.

The Giants have the better lineup and the better pitcher here. I think the price is too cheap.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jays and Yankees are both top 3 in the majors in nearly every major offensive category in the last 30 days. These are two excellent offenses.

The wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium at about 12 mph on a warm day with a high in the mid 80's. The weather conditions are fantastic for an over.

Chris Bassitt is an inconsistent starter, and he has allowed a .376 wOBA against this Yankees lineup in a very large sample size. 

Luis Gil is a middle of the road starter, and the Blue Jays bats are on fire of late. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are still a pretty good offense. The DBacks top of the order is one of the best in baseball. Tolle is a good young pitcher for the Red Sox, but he has flown up through the minors and he's now up against much better hitters than he has seen anytime. He faced the Pirates in his first start, so this is a much tougher test.

Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled this year. He has very poor numbers against this Red Sox lineup as well. Trevor Story has really seen the ball well off Rodriguez. 

Chase Field is still a top four or five hitters ballpark in all of baseball. A total set this low isn't very common here without high level pitchers going.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Yankees and  Blue Jays are the second and third ranked offenses in baseball in the last 30 days in terms of weighted on base average. 

The Yankees have gotten red hot of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Kevin Gausman is a pretty good pitcher overall, but he has been torched in his last three starts at Yankee Stadium. Gausman has allowed 17 runs in his last 8 and 2/3 innings pitched at Yankee Stadium. He has a tough task here.

Cam Schlittler is a good young pitcher, but he has faced a lot of very weak lineups. His last four starts have been against very weak offenses. He's up against a top five offense in baseball here in the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto has scored 37 runs in their last four games.

The two bullpens here are no better than mediocre. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have been money at home this season. The Philadelphia Phillies are actually a game below .500 on the road. 

Freddy Peralta is absolutely dealing right now. Peralta has allowed 0 runs in four straight starts. He has a 2.09 FIP in those four starts. Peralta also has a 1.83 ERA at home on the season. 

Ranger Suarez is a good pitcher, but this Brewers lineup has hit him hard. Also, Suarez has a WHIP of 1.35 in his career after the All Star Break as compared to 1.15 before the break. He often tails off late in the season.

Peralta had poor numbers against this Phillies lineup many years ago, but in the last three outings he has had Peralta has allowed a total of just 3 runs against the Phillies in 16 IP. He has walked only 2 batters and struck out 25.

The Brewers hit left handed pitching well, and I like them to finish this series off with a win with Peralta on the mound.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* I have to fade Mitchell Parker here. Parker has an 8.34 ERA and a 5.75 FIP in his last ten starts. He has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts. Parker is putting his team in a bad position consistently. He ranks in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in expected batting average. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in average exit velocity.

Eury Perez is coming off a horrible start against the New York Mets. Perez is a good young pitcher overall though. Perez is in the top 7% of all pitchers in expected batting average. His average fastball is 97.8 mph and he consistently has good numbers when it comes to getting hitters to chase after bad pitchers.

The Nationals are 28-42 at home this year. The Marlins are 34-37 on the road. 

The Marlins offense is narrowly better than the Nationals now. Perez is significantly better than Parker.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins have been hitting right handed pitching, and Davis Martin is certainly a below average right handed pitcher. Simeon Woods Richardson is also a below average right handed pitcher.

The key for this game to me though is that both bullpens have been awful in the last month. The Twins traded away their top two bullpen arms, and they are struggling badly. The White Sox have a bottom three bullpen that is worn out right now.

There are showers expected here which could mean the bullpen gets a lot of time, and I'll be on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Shane Baz has been rocked when pitching at home in Tampa this season. Baz has a 7.06 ERA at home on the season. Baz has an 8.47 ERA in his last seven starts overall. 

Seattle's offense ranks in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Mariners have plenty of power, and Baz is prone to that big inning.

Luis Castillo has been in very poor form of late too. Castillo has a 6.66 ERA and a 6.70 FIP in his last five starts overall. 

Tampa Bay has hit right handed pitching well all season, and the Rays have continued that trend of late. 

These are two starters who have at times been absolutely smashed. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Teng has been awful for the Giants. He has an 8.78 ERA and 9 walks in just 13 and 1/3 innings pitched this season. He has given up free baserunners and a lot of hard contact. Those are bad combinations going to Coors Field.

Chase Dollander has been absolutely crushed at Coors Field this season. Dollander has a 9.88 ERA in 41 innings pitched at Coors. Opponents have a whopping .407 weighted on base average against him at Coors. 

The Giants have averaged 9 runs per game in their last five games. Now, they go to take on a very bad starting pitcher at Coors Field.

Colorado is solid offensively at home as well.

Coors Field day games with a total of 12 or lower and a high temperature of 82 degrees or higher have gone over the total at a 56.2% clip in the last 20 seasons. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is blowing in at Fenway Park. The wind matters the most at Wrigley Field in Chicago, but Fenway is where long term stats show the wind matters second most. With the wind blowing in at Fenway and relatively moderate temperatures, it is a clear positive for the pitchers in this one.

Messick has been fantastic in his two starts in the majors. He has just one walk and 12 strikeouts. He is one of the higher prospects in the Guardians organization, and he is showing why right now. 

Boston hasn't been hitting very well of late. Six of their last seven games have stayed under this total. 

Cleveland has seen five of their last seven stay under this total as well. Bello starts for Boston here and he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Red Sox -1.5* The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken the first two games of this series. I don't think they'll finish a sweep in Boston. Mitch Keller has fallen apart since the All Star Break. Keller has an 8.31 ERA and a 5.31 FIP in his last six starts. He has a long history of pitching much worse after the break.

Lucas Giolito has allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts. I think he can take care of this Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh is second worst in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. They have a high BABIP in recent games suggesting regression on the way.

The Pirates are still just 22-46 on the road this year. The Red Sox are 41-27 at home. Boston is in a tight race in the AL East. I like them to finish this game out with a much needed comfortable win.

Take Boston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The Twins are 14-25 since the All Star Break. Minnesota dumped their top two bullpen arms at the trade deadline. They traded away one of their best bats too. 

Joe Ryan is a good pitcher, but he has faltered some of late. Ryan likely won't pitch quite as deep into the games late in the season. It would make sense for the Twins to save his arm a bit with them being out of the race.

The Padres have the best bullpen ERA and FIP in baseball this year. This is a bullpen game for the Padres, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing in this case. The Padres have the much better offense and the much better bullpen. The Minnesota bullpen is a big weakness now.

At plus money- I have to back the better overall team.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Padres ML* The Minnesota Twins aren't good anymore. Minnesota is 13-24 since the All Star Break. They traded away their two best bullpen arms, and this is now a very weak bullpen. The Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball. San Diego is 23-15 (second best in the majors) since the All Star Break. 

Minnesota's offense is now bottom ten in the majors. The Twins have a bottom six or eight bullpen in the majors. They aren't being priced that way.

Zebby Matthews is a decent pitcher, but he relies heavily on the strikeout, and this Padres offense can be tough to strike out.

Nestor Cortes pitched well in his last start, and I think he can build on that against this weakened lineup.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals offense that struggled much of the year has come alive in the last couple weeks. They are top five in the majors in almost every offensive category in the last 14 days. Both Pasquantino and Witt Jr. have caught fire, and they are getting good performances from Perez and Garcia too. 

The Detroit Tigers are in the top ten in offensive categories in that same time period. The Tigers have scored six runs or more in 7 of their last 12 games. 

Detroit has an impressive .341 weighted on base average against Seth Lugo. They have hit for power against him in the past. 

Kansas City has a .363 wOBA against Chris Paddack in his career. 

Lugo has an 8.07 ERA and an 8.23 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 10 home runs in his last 29 innings pitched. Paddack has an ERA over 5 in his last eight starts too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Kansas City Royals still have plenty to play for while the Chicago White Sox have nothing to play for other than pride at this point. 

Kansas City's offense has finally woke up of late. The Royals are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They have gotten much more power production out of the middle of the order.

The Chicago White Sox will likely be without Luis Robert, who was injured and pulled from the game last night. The White Sox don't have much depth lineup wise. 

Ryan Bergert is a highly rated prospect who has come up to the majors and thrown the ball very well. He has a 2.60 ERA and he generates a lot of swings and misses. 

Aaron Civale is a streaky pitcher who has been slumping of late. The White Sox are 23-44 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 34-65 against a right handed starting pitcher. 

Kansas City is 48-31 against a team with a losing record.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates in this one. Mitch Keller was really good earlier this year,  but he has struggled of late. Keller has an 8.31 ERA and a 5.61 FIP in his last six starts. In his career, Keller has consistently been much worse in the second half of the season. Keller also has allowed a .365 wOBA against this Cardinals lineup in his career. 

Pallante isn't necessarily an exciting starter to back, but he has allowed only a .181 batting average in 81 plate appearances against the Pirates. 

Pittsburgh is 18-45 on the road this year, and it is very rare you can fade them at this price range against a decent team who still has something to play for.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the Mets and Phillies have been in a bunch of high scoring contests in the last couple weeks. In fact, both teams have played 7 of their last 8 games over this posted total. Both lineups have really heated up of late.

Both pitchers in this game have struggled mightily in their previous appearances against the opposition in this contest. Sean Manaea has been especially bad against the Phillies. In a large sample size of 122 plate appearances, he has allowed a .399 weighted on base average against this Phillies lineup. Nick Castellanos has 3 HR's against him in just 19 at bats. Luzardo has allowed a .303 wOBA against the Mets lineup.

Manaea has allowed at least 4 runs in his last four starts. Luzardo is inconsistent and he's facing a Mets lineup that is good against lefties. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Blue Jays ML* Toronto is 42-21 at home this year. The Blue Jays host the Twins here who are 26-40 on the road this season, and they are 2-8 in their last 10 games. 

Minnesota's Joe Ryan is a good starting pitcher, but I suspect he will throw fewer innings down the stretch with the Twins having very little to play for the rest of the way. The Twins bullpen has been awful in recent weeks, and the Blue Jays would likely get a lot of traffic on the bases against them.

Max Scherzer has been throwing the ball well. He has been giving up soft contact on a consistent basis. He has also lowered his walk rate. The Blue Jays have a big bullpen advantage.

Vlad Jr. pinch hit last night and he might play here. Even if he doesn't, the Blue Jays have a clear offensive advantage. 

I like Toronto to get back on track here.

Take the Blue Jays. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Seattle Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall. I like Logan Gilbert, so this is certainly not a fade of him in general. Gilbert has been a bit shaky in his last five outings with a 5.92 ERA and a 4.80 FIP. He is definitely a good pitcher, but he is in questionable form coming into this one.

The Athletics are a whopping 11-2 in Jacob Lopez's last 13 starts. Many of those wins have been blowouts too. Lopez has a 0.60 ERA and a 2.28 FIP in his last five starts.

The Seattle Mariners are far worse against lefties than righties, and they have been ice cold in the last couple weeks against left handed pitching.

The Athletics are 19-14 since the All Star Break. The Athletics top five in the order are tremendous young hitters. I think the oddsmakers are too low on this team.

I'll grab them at this huge price. 

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon. The weather in this one calls for a temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out at 10 mph. It is great weather for the hitters in this one.

Jake Irvin has been getting smashed on a routine basis of late. Irvin has an 8.10 ERA and a 6.52 FIP in his last six starts. Irvin has a 4.15 ERA in the first half of the season in his career. He has an ugly 5.82 ERA in the second half of the season in his career.

Ranger Suarez has been struggling in recent outings, and the Nationals have been hitting the ball pretty well recently. Suarez has a 2.92 ERA in his career in the first half of the season, but it dips down to 3.95 in the second half. 

Suarez has a 2.25 ERA on the road this year and a 4.27 ERA at home. 

Five of the last six Phillies games have topped this total, and the one that stayed under finished at 9 runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies -1.5* The Philadelphia Phillies are the much better team here, and they are up against Mitchell Parker, who is a pure fade for me especially on the road.

Mitchell Parker has 10 walks and 10 strikeouts in his last four starts. Parker has a terrible 2.13 WHIP and a 12.38 ERA in those four starts in the month of August. The Phillies hitters have crushed him in the past too. 

Parker ranks in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA, expected batting average, and average exit velocity allowed.

Aaron Nola had some great outings in the minors before his return last game. Nola was hit hard in the third inning against the Nationals last time out, but the Nationals had a batting average on balls in play of .700 in that game. Nola is clearly still the better pitcher than Parker. The Phillies have the much better bullpen. The Phillies lineup is a lot better too.

Take Philadelphia -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Minnesota Twins are falling apart in a big way. They were swept at home by the Athletics in the series before this one. Minnesota traded away so much at the deadline. The team chemistry here is poor now, and the bullpen that was once one of the best in the majors is now a big weakness. In fact, Minnesota is second to worst in the majors in bullpen FIP in the last 30 days.

The Twins are 2-8, and they have been getting beaten badly. I just don't think they deserve to be this kind of road favorites against anyone right now. The White Sox are 3-7 in their last 10, and the White Sox have been very competitive at home this year.

In the Twins last 8 losses, they have lost by more than 30 runs. The White Sox have lost by just 16 runs in their last 8 losses.

Aaron Civale has just one bad start in his last five outings. He is certainly inconsistent, but the Twins offense is weak now. 

Zebby Mathews is giving up quite a bit of hard contact, and his control has been questionable of late. 

I'll grab the plus money price on the dog.

Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Minnesota Twins sold away a bunch of the key members of the team at the trade deadline, and this team is nothing like the team we saw earlier in the season. 

Minnesota is 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Twins bullpen isn't close to what it once was. The lineup is weaker too. Now, they are using Jose Urena as their primary pitcher here. He might be the starter or a long relief guy, so I'm going "action" on this selection. 

Urena has a 4.06 ERA and a 5.60 FIP on the season. His walk rate is nearly as high as his strikeout rate. 

Perkins starts for the A's, and I definitely prefer him to Urena. He has a 4.28 ERA and a 3.92 FIP. He has a high strikeout rate, and he has a 2.08 ERA on the road this season.

The A's definitely have the better lineup at this point. The group of Kurtz, Langaliers, and Rooker are a great trio of young hitters. 

Take the Athletics here. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Kansas City Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Kansas City has been getting good pitching and winning a lot of close games at home. 

The Texas Rangers are 24-41 against teams over .500 this year. They are also 2-8 in their last 10 games. 

Jacob Degrom was originally scheduled to start this game, but he is going to be skipped due to shoulder pain. The Rangers are now expected to have a bullpen game here. The Rangers bullpen is second to last in the majors in bullpen FIP in the last 30 days. They are already worn down before this contest.

Noah Cameron is a good young pitcher for the Royals. The Rangers have been terrible against lefties this season. Cameron has consistently done a great job missing bats and getting ahead in the count. 

Bobby Witt Jr. has been heating up and the Royals should be good sized favorites here. This bet is "action". The Royals will have a pitching advantage here.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The Cincinnati Reds will start Hunter Greene in this one. I think Greene is a top 10 starting pitcher when healthy. Greene is in the top 10 percent of all pitchers in baseball in both strikeout rate and walk (lowest) rate. He gets batters to chase at a ton of pitches out of the strike zone. In his career, Greene has a far lower ERA in the second half of the season than the first half. Greene has allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts this year.

Kyle Hendricks is in the 36th percentile in the majors in expected batting average. He has a 5.02 ERA in his last 9 starts. Hendricks has bad career numbers against this Reds lineup too. The Reds hitters have a .329 batting average in 79 career plate appearances against him.

The Angels are dead last in the majors in defensive runs saved. Their bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the majors as well.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees looked good in sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend in St. Louis. The Yankees have finally started to get healthier, and the bats are waking up.

The Yankees have the lowest batting average on balls in play of any team in the majors in the last 30 days. That's a sign of clear positive regression coming and this team should continue to hit the baseball.

Shane Baz has a 6.54 ERA at home this year. Baz is both walking a lot of batters and giving up a lot of home runs. Those are two things this Yankees team is more than capable of doing major damage with. 

Carlos Rodon has thrown the ball well against this Rays lineup. Also, Tampa Bay is 25th in wOBA against lefties (13th against righties), so they struggle against good lefties. 

The Yankees have the far superior offense and the better starting pitcher.

Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* Jacob Lopez hasn't allowed a run in his last 24 innings pitched. The Minnesota Twins traded away a bunch of key contributors at the deadline, and they just aren't the same team anymore. They no longer have an elite bullpen. They no longer have Correa in the middle of the order. 

The Twins are just 8-16 on the season against left handed starting pitching. Joe Ryan is a good pitcher, but the A's are hitting the baseball very well of late. The young Athletics are tough outs.

Lopez doesn't appear to be just a fluke on the mound either. He has one of the best hard hit baseball rates of any pitcher in the majors. He is locating his stuff very well and forcing weak contact from opposing batters.

This price is too large to pass up.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins will be without star Kyle Stowers due to an injury. He has been the Marlins best hitter by a wide margin in the last month. Miami is just 21st in weighted on base average and home, and they are bottom four in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Eury Perez hasn't been quite as good in his last couple starts, but Perez has fantastic advanced metrics. Even in his last start where he struggled, he still had 0 walks and 8 strikeouts. Perez has been tremendous at home in his career. He has a 2.00 ERA and a .253 wOBA allowed. All four of his starts this year at home have stayed under the total.

Liberatore has been up and down, but the Marlins are much better against righties. Also, Marlins Park is the third most pitcher friendly park in baseball so far this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle ML* The New York Mets got a win yesterday, but I think this could be a tough one for them. Clay Holmes is in really poor form. Holmes is walking way too many batters of late. Holmes has a history of pitching far worse in the second half of the season as compared to the first half of the season. He has an ERA more than 1.5 runs higher in the second half of the season in his career. 

George Kirby started a bit slowly after coming back from injury, but he has rounded into form nicely. Kirby has a 2.55 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in his last seven starts. He has 11 walks and 49 strikeouts in that span. 

The Mets are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Mariners are still one of the best offenses in baseball away from home. Holmes is likely to give them chances. If they convert on those chances with runners in scoring position at least a decent amount, I think they win this one.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and we know how important that is for totals here. No ballpark in the majors is changed by the wind the way Wrigley is on a consistent basis. Under bettors have been treated extremely well in similar conditions here in the past. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10 or 11 mph during this game. 

The Cubs have played 10 of their last 11 games under this posted total. They have gotten fantastic pitching, and their lineup has really slumped of late. 

The Pirates offense is arguably the worst in all of baseball, and I think Assad and the bullpen can keep them down here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Angels have been an over machine of late. The Angels lineup has been producing in a big way. Zach Neto and Taylor Ward have really come on this season, and Mike Trout has looked better in recent weeks too. 

The Athletics offense has been very good with their young talent. Kurtz, Langaliers, and Rooker are tremendous young talents. Tyler Anderson has allowed a .350 wOBA against this Athletics lineup.

These two bullpens both rank in the bottom eight in all the advanced metrics. Morales isn't likely to pitch deep into the game, and Anderson hasn't been completely healthy (back issues). 

Sutter Park is second in the majors behind only Coors Field in park factor. This is a very favorable park for hitters.

The over is 7-0 (and all 7 have gone over 10.5) in the Angels last 7 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Padres and Dodgers are now tied at the top of the NL West standings. I still feel the Dodgers are the higher upside team. 

The Padres have been good on offense of late, but they are running a very high batting average on balls in play, which suggests they could be due for some regression to the mean. 

The LA Dodgers have been amazing on offense at home this year. They have a .355 wOBA at home, and the Dodgers have a 39-24 record at home this year. The Padres are just 31-33 on the road.

Blake Snell is coming off a masterful start. Snell has good numbers against the Padres in his career. Dylan Cease is much worse away from home, and he's allowed a .330 wOBA to the Dodgers in his career.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are top three in offensive production away from home. The New York Mets offense has underachieved for quite some time, but they have finally found their footing. The Mets have scored 31 runs in their last four games. 

Both the Mariners and Mets rank in the bottom four teams in the majors in batting average on balls in play in the last 30 days. They have been due for some positive regression, and we've started to see it the last couple days. Seattle won an 11-9 high scoring contest on Friday night.

Citi Field is a place where the weather matters quite a bit. The over trends are very strong here on warm days with the wind blowing out. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph with a temperature in the low to mid 80's for this one.

Shane Livensparger is one of the best over umpires in the league and he's behind home plate here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Eury Perez is an excellent young starter for the Marlins. He had his first poor start in a long time in his last outing. Perez is in the top 7% of all pitchers in the majors with an expected batting average allowed of just .204 according to Baseball Savant. His velocity is up and he's averaging 98 mph on his fastball.

Gavin Williams has taken a big step forward for the Guardians this year. Williams has a 2.77 ERA at home on the season. Williams is inducing softer contact while at the same time creating more swings and misses. He has a 1.63 ERA in his last six starts. His WHIP in those six starts is an impressive 0.93. 

The weather will cool off in Cleveland the light winds will switch around after the morning rain to a wind from the north. Those are good conditions for the under at Progressive Field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Milwaukee Brewers have won 11 straight. Milwaukee's lineup is getting some fantastic production out of the top and bottom of the order. Frelick and Turang have been amazing. William Contreras is turning into a top player as well. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are now 17-41 on the road this year. Pittsburgh has been decent at home, but on the road they are just getting blown away. That includes a blowout even with Paul Skenes pitching last night. 

Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff has a 2.29 ERA and a 2.16 expected ERA on the season so far. Woodruff has 6 walks and 45 strikeouts. 

Mitch Keller has been pretty good for the season as a whole, but he has hit a wall of late. Keller has a 4.60 ERA and a 5.18 FIP in his last six starts. He isn't generating as many swings and misses of late. 

Keller has terrible lifetime numbers against the Brewers. In 86 plate appearances against this Milwaukee lineup, he has allowed a .411 weighted on base average.

In 80 plate appearances against the Pirates lineup, Woodruff has allowed a .153 batting average and a very good .238 wOBA. 

The Brewers bats have been on fire of late, and I'll take them on the run line at plus money here.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers are still the best offense in baseball when looking at the season long numbers. They are now expected to face Mederos who has very little big league experience and has struggled in that little time. This is a tough matchup for him, and I don't think he is likely to be in the game too long. 

Sheehan is a middle of the road right handed pitcher, and the Angels have been hitting the ball well of late. The Angels have seen four straight games go over this posted total. They have been getting good production out of Neto, Adell, and Mike Trout. 

Both bullpens rank in the bottom ten in the majors in ERA. The Angels middle relief is particularly poor and they are likely to be used a lot here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes is conistently throwing the ball as well as any pitcher in baseball. Skenes has been throwing his very best of late. In his last 15 starts, Skenes has a 1.51 ERA.

Skenes has a 1.78 ERA on the road and a ridiculous low .226 weighted on base average allowed on the road in his career.

Skenes also has elite numbers against the Brewers lineup. In 45 plate appearances against Skenes, the Brewers lineup has a .116 batting average and a .129 wOBA. He has a 35.6% strikeout rate.

Freddy Peralta has been excellent at home during his career. He has a 2.13 ERA at home this year, and he's up against arguably the worst lineup in all of baseball. 

Miller Park ranks as the second most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in the last three years combined, and it is in the top five again this season. 

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here, and he is a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Tampa Bay Rays are 3-9 in their last 12 games. Tampa Bay is trending the wrong direction in a big way. Ryan Pepiot starts for the Rays here. Pepiot is one of those guys trending in the wrong direction. Pepiot has a 5.44 ERA and a 5.70 FIP in his last 8 starts. He hasn't allowed less than 2 runs in any of those starts, and he has allowed 4 runs or more in half of those starts. 

Jeffrey Springs is pitching really well for the Athletics. Springs has a tough home park here, but he has a very impressive 3.99 ERA when pitching at Sutter Park. Springs has a 2.92 ERA in his last 9 starts. He has allowed one run or fewer in four of those starts. He has just 9 walks in his last 9 starts combined.

The Rays offense is dead last in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Athletics are an impressive third. Tampa Bay has been much better against right handed pitching than lefties so far this season.

Take the Athletics. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Minnesota Twins plan to start Jose Urena on Sunday. Urena is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Urena has a 5.24 ERA and an expected ERA of 7.70 so far this year. He gives up home runs by the bunches, and he rarely strikes out batters.

Bergert is the expected starter here for the Royals. Bergert is a highly touted prospect who has a solid 3.13 ERA in his eight starts this year. His biggest weakness is his control, he does walk quite a few batters. The Twins though are one of the worst in the MLB at drawing walks.

The Kansas City lineup has woke up a bit of late, and Yastrzemski has been a nice catalyst for them. 

The Twins middle relief is really worn out, and they are likely to be needed here with Urena starting.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers are 38-23 at home this season. The Tigers are 6th best in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Kikuchi is a middle of the pack lefty that has pitched much better in the first half of the season than the second half of the season in his career overall. Kikuchi gives up a lot of hard contact, and he isn't generating as many swings and misses as he did in previous seasons.

The LA Angels are 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Angels offense has been very inconsistent this season. Charlie Morton has a solid 3.73 ERA and a 3.84 FIP in his last 11 starts. 

Kikuchi has terrible career numbers against this Tigers lineup. The Detroit lineup here has a .370 batting average and a .455 wOBA against Kikuchi. Gleyber Torres has done a lot of damage against Kikuchi.

Take Detroit here. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The New York Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Mets have been slumping and team chemistry questions have been brought up all through the media of late. On the other side, the Brewers have had quite a few injuries, but this team just keeps winning games. They have the best record in the majors. 

Milwaukee's offense has been getting great production out of the bottom of the order. The Brewers bullpen has also been solid of late.

Brandon Woodruff missed a lot of time with an injury, but since he has been back he has been in tremendous form. Woodruff has a 2.22 ERA and a 2.10 expected ERA in his 5 starts back from injury. 

Kodai Senga has been struggling badly with control in recent games. He has been pitching into jams with regularity.

The price here is cheap on the Brewers at home despite them having the better starter.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bryce Elder starts for the Braves here, and Elder has been really bad this season. He ranks in the bottom two percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He's giving up a ton of hard contact, and his strikeout rate is far below average.

Edward Cabrera has a solid .268 weighted on base average allowed at home, but it is all the way up at .341 on the road. 

The Braves lineup has heated up a bit of late with Albies coming alive and some of the youngsters improving. The Braves are in the top half of the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days.

The Marlins offense is 11th in wOBA in the last 30 days. Miami's getting great production out of Stowers and Edwards in particular.

Whitson is the home plate umpire here, and the over is 38-25 in his last 63 behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* Eury Perez is one of the best young starting pitchers in baseball. He has allowed just four runs in his last 34 innings pitched.

Carlos Carrasco is way past his prime. He's only starting because the Braves have had serious injury issues with their starting pitchers. Carrasco is in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed. 

Perez ranks in the top six percent of all pitchers in the majors in both expected ERA and expected batting average allowed.

The Marlins youngsters in the lineup have really heated up of late. Edwards and Stowers are great leaders for this group.

The Braves lineup is a shell of its former self with Acuna and Riley out of the lineup. 

At this price, I have to back the red hot Marlins and their young star pitcher.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The temperature at Coors Field for this one is expected to be an extremely hot 95 degrees. The ball flies extremely well at Coors with this kind of temperature. Day games have been noted to be much better for the carry of the ball here too.

Kyle Freeland doesn't have much in the way of swing and miss stuff, and the Blue Jays are mashing the baseball of late. Even with a total this high, the Blue Jays have seen 7 of their last 10 games go over 11.5 runs. 

The Rockies have had five straight games go over this total as well. 

The Blue Jays are first in the majors in weighted on base average over the last 30 days. The Rockies are seventh in wOBA in that same period. 

I think both of the offenses can get enough going in these conditions to turn this into a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Athletics ML* The Athletics are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. This young lineup is hitting the ball extremely well. Kurtz has been the superstar, but Rooker and Langaliers have heated up as well. 

Luis Severino has thrown it well lately. Severino has a 2.65 ERA and a 2.75 FIP in his last three starts (since the All Star Break). He has been superb on the road all year. Severino has a 3.03 ERA on the road. In his career, Severino has a long history of being much better in the second half of the season.

MacKenzie Gore has pitched very poorly since the All Star Break. He has a 10.66 ERA in his last three starts. He has 10 walks and 10 strikeouts in those three starts. His velocity is down a tick in those starts as well. The A's do have a lot of guys who are good against left handed pitching.

Washington is 3-7 in their last 10 games. I don't think they should be priced as this kind of favorite.

Take the Athletics. 

*4 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers now have the best record in baseball. Milwaukee has been great both at home and on the road. The Brewers are getting great hitting from guys that weren't expected to be this good. They have a deep rotation and a solid bullpen too.

Quinn Priester has been good all year, but he has been very good of late. Priester has a 2.48 ERA and a 3.21 FIP and 2.81 xFIP in his last five starts. Priester is an extreme ground ball pitcher, and he is doing great job keeping the ball in the park.

Erick Fedde is a Brave now, and Fedde has been in absolutely terrible form lately regardless of which team he is pitching for. Fedde has a 12.09 ERA and a 9.10 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 9 home runs in his last 22 innings pitched. He has 13 walks and only 11 strikeouts in those last six starts.

Atlanta is in a weird scheduling spot too after the travel to Cincinnati and then Bristol for the special game and now back to Atlanta.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* I'm not going to bet on the Chicago White Sox very often this season. In this case though, I am willing to back the Chicago White Sox. This is primarily a fade of the LA Angels and Jack Kochanowicz being favored by a decent amount.

The Angels start Kochanowicz here, and he has been terrible on a consistent basis. He has a 6.49 ERA and a 5.70 FIP in his last eight starts. At home this season, he has a .366 weighted on base average allowed. 

Sean Burke isn't a great pitcher by any means, but he has been trending the right direction. Burke has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.74 FIP in his last eight starts. He is getting a lot more swings and misses of late too.

The Angels are dead last in the majors in bullpen FIP this season. 

The White Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 games. Their offense is top five in the majors in wOBA in the last two weeks.

I'll take the plus price here on the White Sox.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tarik Skubal vs. Zack Wheeler is an elite starting pitching matchup. I think runs will be difficult to come by in this one. 

Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. He has a 2.09 ERA and a 1.93 FIP. He has a ridiculous 19 walks and 171 strikeouts. The Phillies offense is a good one, but they are a little better against right handed pitching, and Skubal is the best lefty in the majors. 

Wheeler has a 2.56 ERA and a 2.69 FIP on the season. He has a 2.00 ERA and a fantastic .226 weighted on base average allowed at home. 

Skubal has held the Phillies lineup to a .143 batting average in 47 plate appearances. Wheeler has held the Tigers to a .114 batting average in 37 plate appearances.

The wind will be blowing in slightly here and the temperatures have cooled off in Philadelphia.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs beat the Baltimore Orioles 1-0 on Friday in a game that took just 1 hour and 49 minutes. The wind at Wrigley Field was blowing in and it killed a couple baseballs that would have been home runs.

The forecast for this game calls for mid 70's and wind blowing in here at about 8 mph during the game. 

Matthew Boyd is coming off a poor start, but he has been tremendous this year for the Cubs. Boyd has a 1.95 ERA at home this year. The Orioles offense is much weaker than it was before the trade deadline, and Baltimore has struggled with lefties all year.

Sugano starts for the Orioles. He has struggled with the long ball, but the conditions here should help.

Emil Jimenez is a strike caller and he has frustrated quite a few hitters already this year. I think he'll be giving the pitchers some borderline strikes.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather matters at Wrigley Field more than any other park. A temperature in the mid 70's on a mild August day in Chicago is a nice start. The wind is expected to be blowing straight in at about 12 mph during this game too. There are many strong angles based on taking Wrigley Field totals based on the wind.

Cade Horton is a good young starter for the Cubs who has a 2.12 ERA and a .279 weighted on base average allowed at home this season. The Baltimore Orioles just gutted the second half of their previously solid lineup at the trade deadline too. This team is now awfully top heavy with some easier outs later in the order.

Trevor Rogers starts for the Orioles, and he has been fantastic this year. Rogers has allowed a total of 5 earned runs in his last 40 innings pitched. Rogers has done a great job keeping the ball in the park as well. The Cubs are a good lineup, but they have been better against right handed pitching than lefties.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Texas Rangers start Nate Eovaldi in this one. Eovaldi has been the most consistently tremendous pitcher in baseball over the last couple months. Eovaldi has a sparkling 1.01 ERA in his last ten starts. He has an impressive 2.41 FIP over that time as well. Eovaldi has allowed one run or less in 9 of his 10 starts during this time frame. He's allowed only 2 home runs in his last 53 innings pitched.

Jose Soriano has a 3.79 ERA on the season. Soriano's ERA at home is 5.37. He ranks in the bottom six percent in baseball in hard hit baseballs allowed this year. Soriano also walks more than 4.1 batters per nine innings. The combination of allowing a lot of free passes and some very high exit velocity is a dangerous one.

The Rangers bullpen is top five in the majors in ERA. The Angels bullpen is bottom five in the majors in ERA. In fact, the Angels have the worst bullpen FIP in all of baseball.

Texas has a big pitching advantage in this one, and I think the price is more than fair.

Take Texas. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners take on the Athletics in Sacramento at Sutter Park on Tuesday night. Sutter Park has been the second most hitter friendly park in baseball this year behind only Coors Field. The weather for Tuesday night calls for temperatures in the upper 80's when this one starts and the ball should be flying well.

Luis Severino has been great on the road this year, but at home he has been crushed. Severino has a 6.68 ERA and a whopping .360 weighted on base average in 66 innings pitched at Sutter Park this year. 

Seattle ranks first in the majors in wOBA on the road. The Mariners bats have been quieter over the last week, but a deeper inspection shows the reason why. Seattle is dead last in the majors with a very low .208 batting average on balls in play in the last week. The Mariners are still hitting it well but it has been finding gloves. This is still a good offense.

The Athletics have a lot of young talent on offense. Kurtz, Rooker, and Soderstrom are the best of the bunch. Logan Evans has a 3.64 ERA this year, but he has an expected ERA of 5.50. He has been very fortunate and this is a tough park.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* A great pitching matchup in Milwaukee tonight. Matthew Boyd has a 0.55 ERA and a 1.60 FIP in his last five starts. He has just 3 walks and 29 strikeouts in that five game stretch. Boyd has been amazingly consistent all season.

Jacob Misiorowski has been fantastic in general this season, but he has been lights out at home. He has a home ERA of 0.56 and a wOBA allowed of just .198. He is striking out more than 12 batters every nine innings.

Though both teams have hit pretty well of late, the Cubs have seen 7 of their last 11 finish under this total. The Brewers have seen 5 of their last 9 finish below the total.

I think both pitchers pitch well in this one and it stays lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff has come back from injury and he's been absolutely dominating opposing hitters. Woodruff has 0 walks and 23 strikeouts in his three games back from injury. Woodruff has a 13.1% swinging strike rate, and he's been working from ahead in the count consistently.

Eury Perez is a really talented young starter for the Marlins. Perez has a 1.17 ERA and a 1.92 FIP in his last four starts. Perez has multiple plus pitches and his breaking stuff has great movement on it.

John Bacon is the home plate umpire here. The under is 28-12 in his last 40 games behind home plate. He has a high strikes called rate. He has a 3.22 strikeout/walk ratio since the start of 2024. He's a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks are a really good offense. They don't have many easy outs in the lineup. The top of the order is absolutely stacked. 

Andrew Heaney has been absolutely blasted in recent starts. How bad has he been? Heaney has a 10.65 ERA in his last five starts. Heaney has an 8.29 FIP during those five starts. He has allowed 9 home runs in his last 19 innings pitched. Going up against this Arizona lineup is a tough task especially when you are in this kind of form.

Merrill Kelly is a slightly above average right handed starter. The Pirates offense is one of the bottom two or three in baseball. Kelly has allowed an impressive .196 batting average in 61 plate appearances against the Pirates lineup.

Ketel Marte has 6 hits in 13 at bats against Heaney and two of those are home runs. 

This is a fair price on the much better team with the much better starting pitcher.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play On Mariners* The Seattle Mariners have hit the ball extremely well away from home this year. In fact, Seattle is first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road this year at .343. They are 8th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, while the Angels are just 16th.

The Mariners have a huge bullpen edge in this one. The Angels bullpen has the worst FIP in the majors and the fourth worst ERA in the majors. Seattle is in the upper half of the league in bullpen ERA.

Jose Soriano has a 5.65 ERA at home this year, and he has been hit very hard in recent home starts. It's a tough matchup for him against this loaded Seattle lineup.

Bryan Woo has allowed a .190 batting average against the Angels lineup in his career. Woo is a solid pitcher who comes into this one in pretty good form.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians have had some horrible batted ball luck in the last month. As a team, Cleveland has a BABIP of just .237 in the last 30 days. The second lowest BABIP is the Dodgers at .257 during the last 30 days. 

Cleveland's offense has finally fired up in recent games though. The Guardians offense has scored 6 runs or more in six of their last seven games. They have been lead by Jose Ramirez, who has been smashing the cover off the ball.

Zach Eflin starts here for the Orioles. He's had a really bad season, and he is coming off the injured list and is expected to be limited. The Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, and their middle relief will see a lot of action in this one. 

Slade Cecconi has struggled at home, and the Orioles offense has been much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

The weather is warming up in Cleveland and the ball should be carrying better at Progressive Field with a game time temperature around 86 degrees. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Astros ML* The Houston Astros are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Houston goes up against Eduardo Rodriguez here. Rodriguez has been struggling badly of late. He has allowed 5 home runs in his last 8 innings pitched. Rodriguez has allowed a wOBA of over .400 against this Astros lineup. Jose Altuve and Chas McCormick have hit him very hard.

Framber Valdez has a 1.91 ERA and a 2.63 FIP in his last 12 starts. Valdez has allowed only 4 home runs in that span (80 innings pitched). Valdez is also backed what might be the best bullpen in baseball. The Astros bullpen is deep and pretty well rested right now. 

The Diamondbacks have a bottom six or eight bullpen in the majors. Arizona is much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

Take Houston. 

*4 Star Play Over* Rich Hill is expected to make the start here for the Kansas City Royals against his first team, the Chicago Cubs. Rich Hill is 45 years old and has struggled badly in the minor leagues so far this year. Hill has had a terrible 1.619 WHIP in Triple A this season. Hill had a 5.41 ERA in the majors two years ago in his last time as a starter in the big leagues. I don't expect him to be the solution for the Royals.

The Chicago Cubs have a top five offense in baseball. Chicago is a team that should put a lot of pressure on Hill and have baserunners throughout in this one.

The Kansas City offense has finally heated up of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last four games.

The wind is blowing out about 10 mph on a warm day at Wrigley Field here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Miami* The Miami Marlins are 21-11 in their last 32 games. Miami has played some really good baseball of late. The Marlins offense has heated up in a big way. 

Eury Perez starts for Miami in this one. Perez is 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA in three July starts. Perez was a top 10 ranked prospect in all of baseball in 2023. He was a top three or four pitching prospect. He had a major injury last year, but he is in great form now. Perez has walked 0 and struck out 14 batters in his last two starts. He 

Randy Vasquez is due for some major regression. He starts for the Padres here. Vasquez has a 3.80 ERA on the year, but he has an expected ERA of 5.80. He has 46 walks on the year, and he has only struck out 50 batters. He ranks in the bottom four percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in whiff percentage. 

Perez is a much better starting pitcher, and the Marlins offense has been a good amount better against right handed pitching than the Padres.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* MacKenzie Gore has taken that next step this year. Gore is striking out 11.26 batters per nine innings. He has a 2.91 FIP on the season. Gore has a 2.39 ERA at home this year. Gore has a sparkling .240 weighted on base average allowed at home on the season. 

Nick Pivetta has a 2.88 ERA and a 3.10 FIP on the season. Pivetta has been much better in day games than night games in his career. Pivetta has a 3.70 career ERA in day games (5.05 in night games). 

Gore also has an ERA nearly a full run lower in day games in his career.

These two offenses are very inconsistent, and they are up against very good starters here.

Brian O'Nora is a major strike caller as the home plate umpire. He has called more than 65% of pitches a strike both this year and last season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average for the year overall. Atlanta's offense has underachieved for the season as a whole, but the Braves have scored at least 4 runs in six straight games. They have scored 6 runs or more in four of those six contests.

Joey Wentz starts for the Braves here. Wentz is a subpar bullpen pitcher who is being thrown in for a rare start here. Wentz has a high walk rate and allows a bunch of baserunners. The Braves bullpen isn't deep either.

Will Warren starts for the Yankees. Warren has been great at home, but on the road he has a 6.75 ERA and a .353 weighted on base average allowed. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire in this one. He's one of the best over umpires in the majors in his long term history. He consistently has carried a very low strikes called percentage and a low strikeout/walk ratio. He is a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers* Patrick Corbin has been better than the last couple years this season, but he is still a slightly below average starting pitcher. Corbin has allowed at least 2 runs in 15 straight starts. The left hander gives up an elevated amount of home runs.

Reese Olson has allowed 0 runs in four of his last eight starts. Olson has the potential to shut teams down completely. He has allowed only three home runs all season long.

The Detroit Tigers have the best record in the majors this season. They are a solid 27-20 on the road. Detroit is 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties.

At this price, I have to back the better team against Patrick Corbin.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* Nate Eovaldi starts for the Texas Rangers here. Eovaldi has a 1.62 ERA and a 2.29 FIP. In his last ten starts, Eovaldi has a tremendous 1.03 ERA and a 1.93 FIP. He has allowed one run or less in nine of those ten starts! He's throwing the ball just about as well as anyone. 

Hunter Brown has had a very good season thus far, but Brown has struggled a bit of late. Brown allowed 6 runs against the Guardians in his last start. He has a 4.13 FIP in his last four starts. Brown has been crushed by this Rangers lineup as well. Marcus Semien is 12/22 against Brown in his career. Jake Burger has two home runs and 5 hits in 7 at bats against Brown.

The Astros are the more banged up team. They have been very good at home this year, but with Eovaldi throwing the ball this well I have to take this big of a plus money price here.

Take Texas. 

*3 Star Play Under* I do not like to make it a habit of betting an under this low. In this case, I'll do it because of a few key factors.

Jacob Degrom and Framber Valdez are elite pitchers who are in great form. Degrom has a 2.19 ERA and a 2.25 FIP in his last six starts. He has a wOBA allowed of just .249 this season. Valdez has a 2.15 ERA and a 2.71 FIP in his last 10 starts. That includes a poor start in his most recent outing (Dodgers). Valdez has a 1.83 ERA at home this season.

The Astros are elite against left handed pitching, but they are league average or a little worse against right handed pitching. The Rangers are 26th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

These bullpens are both in the top six in the majors in FIP so far this year. They have a good amount of depth.

Phil Cuzzi is one of the best under umpires in the business. The under is 62-41 in his last 103 games behind home plate. He has a very high strikeout/walk ratio year after year and is clearly a strike caller. Both of these veterans should be able to take advantage of this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The Pirates offense is easily dead last in the majors in the last 30 days in ISO, so they aren't showing much power at all. 

Joe Ryan is in the top 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average according to Baseball Savant. Ryan is in the top 13% of all pitchers in strikeout percentage and in the top 10% of all pitchers in fewest walks. His fastball has a ton of movement on it, and I think he can shut down the Pirates here.

Paul Skenes is already among the very best pitchers in baseball. Skenes is in the top 4% of all pitchers in expected ERA and he has a 1.94 ERA on the season. Skenes hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 innings pitched, and he has 1 walk and 15 strikeouts in those outings.

The Twins offense is 22nd in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days.

Both bullpens are clearly above average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mitchell Parker has been getting crushed of late. Parker has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.63 FIP in his last 5 starts. For the season, Parker has a 5.66 road ERA and his weighted on base average allowed on the road is a sky high .338. He is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed. 

The Washington Nationals have seen 11 of their last 12 games get to a total of 9 runs or more. The offense has been improving of late behind Abrams and Wood. The Nationals bullpen has been getting smashed.

The Brewers offense is top 5 in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. Quinn Priester had a 3.59 ERA, but his FIP is up at 4.21 and he appears due for regression to the mean. DL Hall will open for him tonight.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Randy Vasquez starts for the Padres, and I feel he is due for some major regression. Vasquez has a 3.79 ERA and a 5.78 expected ERA. He has an extremely low batting average on balls in play allowed of just .245. In his last five games it is a ridiculously low .216. Vasquez is clearly getting fortunate. He is bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in whiff rate and strikeout rate. He is bottom five percent in the majors in expected ERA. 

Eduardo Rodriguez is an inconsistent starting pitcher. He is coming off a very poor start. He is also backed by a bottom five bullpen in the majors in Arizona. The Padres offense has been a bit better against left handed pitching.

I see both teams getting plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* Mackenzie Gore has pitched 21 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, and he has an 8.57 ERA in those innings. The current Cardinals lineup has a .481 weighted on base average against Gore. 

Gore got off to a red hot start this year, but his performance has tailed off in recent outings. He's up against a team that has hit him hard here.

The Washington Nationals rank dead last in Fangraphs fielding ratings. This Nationals defense is a major problem. The Cardinals are top five in this same statistic. 

The Cardinals start Andre Pallente. Pallente has been a decent starter for them this year. The Cardinals have the much better bullpen compared to the Nationals.

The Nationals have the higher upside starter here, but this price is too cheap for all the strengths of the Cardinals. I like the home team here.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The St. Louis Cardinals have announced Sonny Gray is the expected starter here. Gray is throwing the ball as well as just about anyone in the majors of late. Gray has a 2.52 ERA and a 1.53 FIP in his last eight starts. Gray is walking just 1.08 batters per nine innings during that time frame. He is striking out just over 10 batters per nine innings too. He has allowed just one home run in those eight starts.

Jake Irvin is a below average starting pitcher. Irvin has a 4.71 ERA and a 5.16 FIP on the season. Irvin has a 7.12 ERA and a 6.41 FIP in his last seven starts. He has been much worse on the road this season.

Washington's bullpen is dead last in FIP in the last 30 days. The Cardinals have an average or slightly better bullpen, while the Nationals bullpen is a bottom three unit.

Sonny Gray has dominated this Washington lineup in his career. He has held them to just a .279 weighted on base average in 106 plate appearances.

Take St. Louis -1.5.