15* Bulls/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat are rested and ready to go tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  They will be hungry following back-to-back losses on the road to the Toronto Raptors and Oklahoma City Thunder.  They have had two days off since that loss to the Thunder to get ready for the Bulls.

The Chicago Bulls certainly don't have that same luxury.  This is a tired team right now as the Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after losing 107-115 in Atlanta last night.  They have lost four of their last five games overall coming in.

The problem with the Bulls is that they do not play defense.  They have given up at least 107 points in four of their last five games, all four of which were losses.  The only exception was a win over the Orlando Magic at home, but the Magic are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Chicago is 4-15 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 3-17 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last two years.  Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games playing on 0 days' rest.  Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games overall.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Heat Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites here against the Toronto Raptors.  Since Kevin Durant left, this team was pretty much written off, and they have been playing with a chip on their shoulder in the early going.

The Thunder are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Durant's Warriors, which was the second of a back-to-back after a huge road win over the Clippers the night before.  The Thunder are 4-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.0 points per game.

The Toronto Raptors are overvalued right now after their 4-2 start.  But they have played five of their six games at home, and their only road win came at Washington, which is 1-5 right now.  The Raptors lost 91-96 at home to the Kings last time out and were without key center Jonas Valanciunas.  Valanciunas is doubtful to return tonight.

The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 10 points or more.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  Roll with the Thunder Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Toledo/Northern Illinois UNDER 71

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toledo Rockets and Northern Illinois Huskies.  I fully expect this game to go well UNDER this 71-point total in a defensive battle tonight.

This is a huge rivalry game as the MAC has so often come down to which team wins this game.  Toledo is tired of losing to Northern Illinois as it has lost six straight in this series.  But four of those games were decided by a touchdown or less, so they just haven't been able to win close games.

And looking at recent scores in this head-to-head series, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 55, 52, 51 and 59 points.  That's an average of 54.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 71.

Toledo is very good on defense as it gives up just 22.8 points per game this season.  Northern Illinois is playing much better on that side of the ball of late, giving up just 20.3 points, 378.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play over its past three games.  The Huskies held Buffalo to 7 points and 338 yards and Bowling Green to 20 points and 314 total yards in its last two games, respectively.  And three games ago, NIU was tied 21-21- with Central Michigan at the end of regulation before double-overtime.

Toledo is 14-2 UNDER in its last 16 road games after rushing for 275 or more yards in its previous game.  The Rockets are 8-1 UNDER in November games over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 November games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3

The Atlanta Hawks are in a huge letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 110-106 road win over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers as 7.5-point underdogs last night.  I fully expect them fall flat on their faces tonight off such a big win.

That now makes this a very tough spot for the Hawks.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  The Bulls come in on one days' rest after a blowout 112-80 win over the Orlando Magic.  It was their best defensive performance of the season as they held the Magic to just 38.8% shooting.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers appear to be the most improved team in the NBA in the early going.  I think they are still being undervalued here by oddsmakers as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks.

The Lakers look like a poor man's Warriors this season with the hiring of Luke Walton.  They are spreading the floor and letting their young playmakers go to work.  The Lakers have opened 4-3 SU but 6-1 ATS.  All three of their losses came on the road.

But the Lakers are 3-0 at home this season.  They beat the Rockets 120-114 as 6-point dogs, the Warriors 117-97 as 11.5-point dogs, and the Suns 119-108 as 4-point favorites.  I was really impressed with the way they came back and beat the Suns in a clear letdown spot following that 20-point win over the Warriors.

The Dallas Mavericks are a mess right now.  They are just 1-5 on the season with their only victory coming at home in overtime against the Bucks, who were playing the second of a back-to-back and were tired.  Not helping matters is that the Mavs are without two key players in Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams right now.

I expect the Lakers to run the Mavs out of the gym tonight.  They are scoring 110.3 points per game on the season, while the Mavs are being held to 95.5 points per game on 41.1% shooting.  Los Angeles is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8

The Phoenix Suns are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  I know they're just 2-5, but one loss came on the road to the Thunder in overtime, and another was a 6-point loss to the Warriors as 11.5-point home underdogs.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-3 this season and overvalued off back-to-back victories over the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who both have struggled early.  The Blazers have a big game against the Clippers on deck tomorrow night, and they could be looking ahead to that one as the first meeting between them and the Clippers was very chippy back on October 27th.

Both the Suns and Blazers are guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for the Suns.  That has proven to be the case in recent meetings.  The Suns are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Blazers since last season.  They won 118-115 (OT) as 3-point home dogs in their first meeting this year.  I look for them to go on the road this time around and keep this one close, possibly pulling off the upset.

Plays on road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.  Phoenix is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Suns are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the Suns Tuesday.

0* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be motivated for a victory tonight after a 1-4 start to the season.  But this team is way better than its record would indicate as they have been the kings of blowing big first half leads in three of their four losses.

Now the Timberwolves get to go up against the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the wrost teams in the NBA.  The Nets are 2-4 on the season and are getting way too much respect here from oddsmakers due to going 5-1 ATS.  But this is their smallest underdog role thus far, which shows just how much respect they're getting.

The Timberwolves made easy work of the Nets in their two meetings last season.  They won 100-85 as 1.5-point road favorites, and 132-118 as 9.5-point home favorites.  The Nets are without starting PG Jeremy Lin, which is a big blow to a roster that already lacks talent.

Plays against home underdogs (BROOKLYN) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home games over the past three seasons.  Minnesota is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan PK

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are one win away from becoming bowl eligible at 5-4 on the season.  That's a huge deal for a team that has won two or fewer games in four consecutive seasons, and one that hasn't been to a bowl game since 1987.

After missing a golden opportunity last time out on October 29th in a 15-28 home loss to Miami Ohio, I look for the Eagles to take advantage tonight.  Plus, that's a very good Miami team that is proving to be one of the best in the MAC.  But now the Eagles get to face one of the worst teams in the conference in Ball State.

The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in MAC play this season with their only victory coming against Buffalo, which is the worst team in the conference.  Ball State was beating by 10 at home by Akron and by 32 at home by Western Michigan in its last two games.

After playing a huge game against unbeaten Western Michigan last Tuesday, I don't expect the Cardinals to be up for Eastern Michigan this week.  And EMU has an advantage in rest and preparation because it last played on Saturday, October 29th.  The Eagles will be putting all their eggs in one basket here to try and get bowl eligible.

Eastern Michigan has covered the spread against the two best teams in the MAC, proving that they can play with them.  They lost 20-35 at home to Toledo as 20.5-point dogs and 31-45 on the road at Western Michigan as 26-point dogs.  And WMU is their only common opponent with Ball State, which lost to the Broncos by 32 at home last week.

Eastern Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Ball State and yet has still put up better numbers.  The Eagles are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  Ball State is averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.3 yards per play on defense.

Ball State relies heavily on the run, averaging 235 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But EMU has been stout against the run, giving up 152 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  The Cardinals give up 296 passing yards per game and 7.9 per attempt.  The Eagles rely on the pass, averaging 282 yards per game and 7.8 per attempt through the air.  So this is a great matchup for them on both sides of the ball.

Ball State is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 15.6 points per game in this spot.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.  The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

20* Bills/Seahawks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43

The Seattle Seahawks have been talking about getting their offense going leading up to this game.  At home, I fully expect them to get back on track on that side of the ball.  They are averaging 25.0 points per game at home this season.

Now the Seahawks get to go up against a Bills team that has allowed an average of 34.5 points and 405.5 yards per game in back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Patriots.  And the Bills will be without their best defensive lineman in Marcell Dareus, while sack leader Lorenzo Alexander will be hampered by a hamstring injury.

The Seahawks have their own concerns on defense this week.  They will be without DE Michael Bennett, who is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a knee injury.  And S Kam Chancellor is out with a groin injury.  This simply isn't the same defense for the Seahawks that we've been accustomed to.  They have allowed 393.3 yards per game over their past three contests.

The Bills finally look to be healthy on offense this week.  RB LeSean McCoy returns after missing most of the past two games with a hamstring injury.  WR's Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods are probable, and the team signed Percy Harvin this week to add a playmaker.  He'll be going up against his former team and is a big play waiting to happen.

Buffalo is clearly one of the most improved offenses in the league.  It has scored at least 25 points in six of its past seven games overall.  It is averaging 29.3 points per game over its past seven contests.  I expect both offenses to put up big numbers tonight and for the Bills to do their part in getting this one OVER the total.

Buffalo is 24-7 OVER in its last 31 vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 9-2 OVER off a loss over the past two seasons.  Seattle is 9-1 OVER against teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the past three seasons.  The OVER is 8-0  in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  The schedule makers have certainly done them no favors here in the early going, and I think they run out of gas tonight.

Gordon Hayward made his season debut last night for the Jazz in the 114-109 win at New York.  They didn't hold him back at all as he played a whopping 35 minutes.  He will surely feel the effects tonight.  Rodney Hood played 38 minutes, George Hill played 35 and Rudy Gobert played 33 last night as well.

The Philadelphia 76ers are hungry for their first win of the season.  They are 0-5, but they have come oh-so-close in three home games.  They only lost 97-103 (OT) to the Thunder as 9-point dogs, 101-103 to the Magic as 5-point dogs, and 101-102 to the Cavaliers as 12-point dogs.  They should easily stay within this 7.5-point spread tonight, possibly pulling off the upset.

The 76ers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest division foes.  Philadelphia is 37-17-2 ATS in its last 56 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are extremely hungry for their first win of the season today.  But due to their 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS start, the Mavs are undervalued right now.  We are getting a discount here with them as only 2.5-point favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.

It's the perfect storm really because the Bucks are overvalued right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But those three wins came against the Pelicans on the road, and the Pacers and Kings at home.

And now the Bucks are in one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  I don't believe they'll have enough gas left in the tank to match the Mavericks tonight, especially with the Mavs playing desperate basketball to get that first win.

The Bucks are 48-87 ATS in their last 135 games following 3 or more consecutive wins.  Milwaukee is 5-16 ATS after playing a game as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavs have gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bucks.  They have won their last three home meetings by 10, 23 and 13 points.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Tennessee Titans are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  After going 5-27 over the past two seasons, the Titans are off to a 4-4 start this year.  They have been the most impressive team in the AFC South in my opinion.  The numbers prove it too.

All four of Tennessee's losses have come by single-digits, so they've been in every game they have played.  The Titans actually rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 36 yards per game.  Only the Cardinals, Cowboys, Falcons and Redskins have been better.

I've been on the Chargers quite a bit lately, but I think it's time to fade them this week.  They had covered three straight before losing by 8 as 4-point road dogs to the Broncos last week.  That line was bet from 6.5 down to 4, just as the previous week the line was bet from 6.5 down to 4.5 against the Falcons.

So, there's been a lot of love for the Chargers the past few weeks, and there continues to be this week.  They are 4.5-point favorites here, which means it is the largest favorites they have been all season.  They have only been favored in two other games.  They covered as 3-point home favorites against the Jaguars, but lost outright to the Saints as 4-point home favorites.

I like the fact that the Titans have a mini-bye here after crushing the Jaguars 36-22 on Thursday at home.  And the Chargers have had the worst luck in the injury department this season.  They will be without two key defenders in LB Denzel Perryman and LB Jerry Attaochu.  Offensively, they will be without TE Hunter Henry, and both starting WR's in Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin are banged up.

The Chargers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games.  San Diego is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover the spread in its previous game.  While I expect Tennessee to win this game outright, there's a good chance it's decided by a field goal either way, so getting 4.5 points is a nice value.  Seven of San Diego's eight games have been one-score games.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants -2

Of the six teams coming off byes this week, the Giants are my favorite bet of them all.  They have turned their season around after beating the Ravens and Rams in their last two games coming into the bye.

The Giants are now 4-3 and have actually been unlucky in the turnover department, which makes me believe they are better than their record.  They are actually -7 in turnover differential this season.

Statistically the Giants have been very good.  They rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play differential, averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5.1 per play on defense behind one of the most improved stop units in the NFL.

The Eagles, on the other hand, are just 20th in yards per play differential.  They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.3 per play on defense.  So, the Giants have been the better team from a yards per play perspective on both offense and defense.

The Eagles are 1-3 on the road this season with their only win coming against the Chicago Bears.  They are getting outgained by 81 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play on the road.  The Giants are outgaining teams by 76 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play at home this season.

Philadelphia is in a very tough spot here.  It is coming off an overtime loss at Dallas in which it blew a double-digit lead.  So the situation really favors the Giants with them coming off a bye, while the Eagles are coming off an OT game.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Browns +7

It's time to sell high on the Dallas Cowboys.  They were already a public team already, but after starting 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS without a spread loss yet, they are overwhelmingly getting public support now.  So much so that they are 7-point road favorites here against the Cleveland Browns.

At 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS on the season, it's time to buy low on the Browns.  This team keeps coming to play every week, but they just don't have a win to show for it.  The Browns have actually outgained four of their eight opponents this season.

Josh McCown returned to the lineup last week against the Jets in a 28-31 home loss.  Now in his second start back from injury, he should be even better.  He already has a great weapon in Terrelle Pryor at receiver, and now he gets receiver Corey Coleman back from injury.  Coleman had 173 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the first two games of the season before missing the last five with a hand injury.

Don't forget that the Browns traded for Jamie Collins, so their defense gets an upgrade this week.  And the Cowboys lost two key players to injury in their secondary last week against the Eagles.  Cornerback Morris Claiborne is out with a groin injury, while safety Barry Church is expected to miss 3-5 weeks with an arm injury.  McCown should find plenty of holes in this makeshift Cowboys secondary that is allowing 67.8% completions this season.

Home underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 126-97 ATS in their last 223 tries.  The Cowboys are coming off a huge OT win against the Eagles, and they have a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on deck.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Cowboys.  I expect them to just go through the motions this week and for the Browns to stay within the number, possibly pulling off the upset.

Jason Garrett is 1-9 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas.  The Cowboys are losing these games by an average of 2.9 points per game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

15* Alabama/LSU CBS Saturday No-Brainer on LSU +8

The LSU Tigers clearly have new life under interim coach Ed Orgeron.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards, beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards, and beat Ole Miss 38-21 and outgained them by 191 yards.

Now the Tigers are coming off their bye week and have their 'game of the year' here against Alabama.  If they win this game, they can still win the SEC West and possibly make the four-team playoff if they win out.  After all, their two losses came by a combined 7 points on the road to Wisconsin and Auburn, so this is very close to being an 8-0 team.

According to the NFL scouts, Alabama, LSU and Ohio State are the three most talented teams in the country.  The Tigers didn't live up to that talent under Miles, but they certainly are under Orgeron.  They offense has been wide open the past three weeks, which has been the biggest difference.  The Tigers are averaging 41.7 points and 536.0 yards per game over this stretch.

LSU will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder after losing four in a row to Alabama.  But it's worth pointing out that Alabama is only 3-3 in its last six trips to Death Valley.  The three wins came by 6, 4 and 7 points.  And they needed late touchdowns to escape with victory in two of those.  So, the Crimson Tide haven't won by more than a TD in any of their last six trips to Baton Rouge.

I think these teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this line would indicate, plus LSU's home-field advantage in a night game may be worth more than anyone in the country.  Defensively, they are very similar.  Alabama is holding opponents to 177 yards below their season averages, while LSU is holding foes to 174 yards below.

These teams have one mutual opponent in Ole Miss.  Alabama won by just five at Ole Miss with a 35-yard edge in total yards, while LSU won by 17 at home with a 190-yard edge.  The Crimson Tide do have a slight edge on offense, but as stated before LSU has been much better on this side of the ball since Orgeron took over.  They are finding creative ways to get Leonard Fournette the ball in space, which has been a big key.

LSU is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the past three seasons.  It is coming back to win by 19.0 points per game in this spot.  Plays on a home team (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers will be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night.  They are 2-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road.  One of those road losses came at Chicago on October 29th.  So, the Pacers will be out for revenge on the Bulls in this one.

And the Bulls are in a tough spot as it is.  While the Pacers had yesterday off to prepare for revenge on the Bulls, Chicago played New York yesterday.  So, the Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.  This is a fatigued team right now that won't be able to keep up with Indiana's aggressiveness.

The Pacers are playing an even more attacking style this season, which will exploit the Bulls' fatigue.  They are putting up 109.4 points per game this season while shooting 39.3% from 3-point range.  And once Jeff Teague gets acclimated to his new team and offense soon, it's going to be even more explosive.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six of the past seven meetings.  Indiana is 32-12 SU at home against Chicago in its last 44 meetings.  The Pacers are 24-10 ATS after having lost three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Indiana.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +4

Arkansas was clearly gassed from playing Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in a 3-week span.  That's why the bye last week came at the perfect time, and I believe the Razorbacks return home hungry for a victory here against the Florida Gators.

They will be extra motivated from their 56-3 loss at Auburn prior to the bye.  It was just a bad spot for them because Auburn was off a bye, while the Razorbacks were gassed.  And that loss is fresh in the mind of the betting public, which is why the Razorbacks are dogs here when they shouldn't be.  It has provided us some very nice line value in that respect.

Florida doesn't deserve to be playing points here.  It is overvalued due to its 6-1 start and No. 11 ranking the college football playoff.  But the Gators have played an extremely soft schedule this season, and just like last year, I look for them to get exposed down the stretch.

The Gators lost their final three games last year once the schedule got tougher and were blown out in all three games by FSU, Alabama and Michigan.  They still have road games remaining against Arkansas, FSU and LSU, so this season is likely to follow a similar script.

Arkansas will be the best team that Florida has faced, and Arkansas has played played at least four teams that are better than Florida.  The Gators have played only two true road games this season.  They only won 13-6 at Vanderbilt as 14-point favorites, and they lost 28-38 at Tennessee as 4.5-point dogs, which looks like a worse loss now than it did then.

The Gators have a very good defense, but their numbers are skewed because of their soft schedule.  They haven't faced an offense this season that ranks better than 50th (Tennessee) in efficiency.  And the Vols hung 38 points on them.  Arkansas' offense is legit and will be the best that Florida has gone up against this season.  And QB Austin Allen is healthy now with the bye after suffering an ankle injury against Auburn, which contributed to the blowout loss.

Arkansas is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Alabama, which is the best team in the country.  And the Razorbacks played the Crimson Tide tougher than the 30-49 final would show.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which proved to be the difference.

Luke Del Rio may be back for Florida, but its offense is still awful.  The Gators only managed 231 total yards against Georgia last week in a 24-10 victory.  They are only averaging 399 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season, and keep in mind how soft their schedule has been when factoring in those numbers.

Arkansas is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following a road blowout loss by 21 points or more.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse +27

This is a great spot to back the Syracuse Orange for a couple of key reasons.  The first is that the Orange are off their bye week, and it came at a great time because they were a little beat up.  They have extra time to prepare for Clemson, so their focus has been on the game plan all week.  Plus, they're hyped to play a Top 5 team.

"We really needed the bye," coach Dino Babers said. "You know, a lot of times when you have a bye, you start off the next game a little bit slower, but we really needed the time to heal. The Virginia Tech, the Boston College, the Connecticut, those were physical games, they really were, and we're banged up. We need our guys to get some rest. We need to go out and do some coaching. Our players need to work on their studies a little bit, and then we need to come back together and get ready for the last third of the season."

The second key reason to back Syracuse is that this is a huge hangover spot for Clemson.  The Tigers are coming off a 37-34 road win at Florida State.  They needed a 34-yard touchdown pass with 2:06 left to win that contest after coming back from behind in the closing minutes.

I don't expect the Tigers to be fully focused on Syracuse this week.  The Tigers are just worried about winning, not covering big numbers, because if they win out they are in the four-team playoff.  They don't need style points like some of these one-loss teams on the outside looking in.

The Orange have been on the improve under Babers.  They have outgained four of their last six opponents.  Their last two games really stand out.  The Orange beat Virginia Tech 31-17 as 23-point home dogs, outgaining the Hokies by 93 yards.

Then they went on the road and beat Boston College 28-20 as 3.5-point dogs, outgaining the Eagles by 246 yards in the process.  That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And it was an impressive effort as they were in a letdown spot off the Virginia Tech win, plus Boston College was coming off a bye week.

I really like this Syracuse offense, and it will be able to put some point up on Clemson.  Quarterback Eric Dungey is the real deal.  He's on pace to challenge or break a number of Syracuse records.  He is seventh nationally in passing yards per game (328.9) and has six 300-yard passing games.  Dungey has also rushed for 289 yards and six scores.

The bottom line is that Clemson just isn't as good as last year.  Five of its eight wins have come by a touchdown or less, including a 24-17 (OT) win over NC State in their last home game.  Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a three-touchdown underdog or more, including that outright win against VA Tech.

Syracuse has given Clemson trouble the past couple seasons.  The Orange only lost 27-37 as 30.5-point home underdogs last season.  They also only lost 6-16 as 16.5-point road dogs in 2014.  And this Syracuse team is better than those two versions.

Plays on road underdogs (SYRACUSE) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 78-36 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Clemson is 1-12 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons.  It is only winning by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.  Once again, they are being overvalued this late in the year.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland +31

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now.  They are the No. 3 in the country after their 8-0 start, but their schedule has been ridiculously easy to this point.  And now the expectations are through the roof, and I don't think they can live up to them here as 31-point favorites over Maryland.

I faded Michigan last week with success as I took Michigan State +24.5, and the Spartans were always covering in a 23-32 home loss.  The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread in their last two games now as they also didn't cover as 40-point favorites in a 33-point win over Illinois the week prior.

Now we're seeing the Wolverines being asked to lay 31 points to Maryland.  And Maryland just beat Michigan State 28-17 a couple weeks ago.  I would argue that Maryland will be one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season, which just shows how easy the Wolverines' schedule has been.

Maryland is off to a 5-3 start this season.  And the Terrapins are actually 5-1 in games in which senior QB Perry Hills has started and finished, averaging 472 yards of offense in those games.  He got hurt in a loss to Penn State, and he didn't play the following week in a loss to Minnesota.

Hills has thrown 10 touchdowns against three interceptions on the season.  He has also rushed for 136 yards and four scores.  The Terrapins have two running backs who are just big plays waiting to happen.  Sophomore Ty Johnson has rushed for 624 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 10.4 per carry, while true freshman Lorenzo Harrison has rushed for 574 yards and five scores at 7.3 per carry.

There is a really nice coaching angle that gives the Terrapins the advantage.  DJ Durkin was Michigan's defensive coordinator last season.  So he knows Michigan's offensive schemes, and he will use that to his advantage here.  That angle alone is going to make this a closer game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Michigan is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  The Terrapins are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss.  Maryland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Maryland Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3

This is the perfect storm here.  Oklahoma State is coming off a massive 37-20 win over West Virginia last week as 5-point home dogs, exceeding expectations.  Kansas State is coming off a 31-26 win at Iowa State as 6-point favorites, failing to cover the falling below expectations.  That has kept this line lower than it should be.

But the 37-20 win over West Virginia was very misleading for the Cowboys.  They were actually outgained by 63 yards by the Mountaineers and held to 358 yards of total offense.  The difference was that Oklahoma State scored 17 points off of three WVU turnovers.  They needed only 21 yards to score those 17 points, so they were set up with short fields three times.

At the same time, Kansas State's 31-26 win at Iowa State was misleading as well.  The Wildcats led that game 31-10 in the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  The Cyclones outscored them 16-0 in the fourth, including two fourth-down touchdowns, and a safety.  And that's the same ISU team that has gone 5-1 ATS in conference play while taking several teams down to the wire, including Oklahoma State on the road, and Baylor and Oklahoma at home.

The head-to-head history in this series really tells the story for me.  Home-field advantage has been huge.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the past three seasons.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.v

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +7

The Wisconsin Badgers have to be running out of gas.  They have played three teams in the past month who are currently ranked in the Top 10 in Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska.  And they also played one of their biggest rivals in Iowa.  I think we could see the emotional and physical effects of those games hamper them this week, especially after needing OT to beat Nebraska last week.

Northwestern comes in playing its best football of the season.  It has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite being dogs in three of those.  It won 38-31 as 11-point dogs at Iowa, 54-40 as 6-point dogs at Michigan State, and 24-14 as 3-point home favorites over Indiana.

But perhaps Northwestern's most impressive performance of the season actually came in a loss last week.  The Wildcats only lost 20-24 at Ohio State as 26-point dogs.  They played the Buckeyes toe-to-toe and you really couldn't tell who the better team was if you watched that game.  The Wildcats put up over 400 yards of offense on Ohio State and were only outgained by 25 yards.

I think that effort will give them the belief that they can win the Big Ten East, instead of suffering a hangover.  And if they're going to win the division, they need to beat Wisconsin here.  They are only one game back of Nebraska and hold the tiebreaker against Iowa, and would hold the tiebreaker with Wisconsin with a win.

Northwestern has been a thorn in Wisconsin's side over the past two seasons.  It won 20-14 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2014, and 13-7 as 12-point road dogs in 2015.  The Wildcats clearly have the Badgers' number in holding them to a combined 21 points the past two years.  And this Wisconsin offense is terrible once again this season, which is why it cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.  Not to mention the Badgers have several key injuries on defense.

Pat Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Northwestern.  The Wildcats are beating teams by 9.2 points per game in this situation, which has never lost.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Badgers.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Notre Dame -6.5

This game will be played at a neutral site at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, home of the Jaguars.  It is the first game off the board Saturday with the kick set for 11:30 AM EST.  I fully expect a Notre Dame blowout over Navy to get things started.

Notre Dame still needs three more wents to get to a bowl game.  It still has to play at USC in the season finale, which is probably going to be a loss.  So that means these next three games are essentially must-wins against Navy, Army and VA Tech.

Last week was also a must-win, and Notre Dame beat Miami 30-27 at home.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Fighting Irish outgained the Hurricanes by 105 total yards.  The Hurricanes scored 14 points off of two Notre Dame fumbles that made that game closer than it really was.  This was a 20-0 game in the second quarter.

It's worth noting that Notre Dame had a bye before Miami.  It was well-placed on purpose because Notre Dame has Navy and Army in consecutive weeks in its next two games.  You can bet that the Fighting Irish used at least part of the bye week to prepare for the triple-option.  That's a key here that is getting overlooked.

Notre Dame clearly isn't as bad as its 3-5 record would indicate.  All five losses this season have come by a touchdown or less, so they've had a chance to win every game they've played in.  And the defense has been much better since changing coordinators.

In their last three games, the Fighting Irish have only given up an average of 18.0 points per game, 266.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  And the points are skewed.  They gave up a punt block TD against NC State, an INT return TD against Stanford, and two fumbles setting up two Miami TDs.  So they've given up four TDs over the past three weeks that weren't the defense's fault.

Navy is overrated right now due to home wins over Houston and Memphis recently.  But Houston went on to lose by 22 to SMU, while Memphis went on to lose by 29 to Tulsa.  So, both of those wins don't look nearly as good as they did when they happened.

Last week, Navy trailed by as much as 31 at South Florida.  But the Bulls packed it in and let Navy score four touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  This wound up being a 7-point win by USF, but it was a much bigger blowout than that.

I believe Notre Dame is the best team that Navy will have faced this season.  And the Fighting Irish clearly have a huge edge in talent in this game.  The Game of the Year line by Golden Nugget before the season was Notre Dame favored by 14, so we're getting over a touchdown of value here based on preseason expectations.

Notre Dame has owned Navy of late, winning five straight meetings with four of those coming by double-digits.  And the Fighting Irish have been favored by at least 13.5 in all five meetings over the past five seasons.  So this 6.5-point spread is a discount this week with supremely talented Notre Dame laying less than a touchdown.

Navy is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS on the road this season.  Its only win came at Tulane by 7 as 7-point favorites.  It lost to Air Force by 14 and to USF by 7, though as stated before that was a misleading final.  Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 8 or more yards per attempt.

The Midshipmen are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games overall.  Brian Kelly is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play as the coach of Notre Dame.  His teams are winning by 20.2 points per game on average in this spot having never lost.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +3.5

I've been on the Phoenix Suns in every game this season and I'm going to continue to back them as long as they are undervalued.  There's no way the Suns should be underdogs here against the 0-5 New Orleans Pelicans.

The SUns have played a brutal early schedule, and they are undervalued because they are 1-4.  But they only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs.  They beat Portland 118-115 (OT) last time out as 2.5-point dogs to give them some confidence.  And their other two losses came to the Clippers (on a back-to-back) and Kings (opener).

The Pelicans just can't catch a break in the injury department.  They are missing two starters in Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, which is the biggest reason they are 0-5.  They have lost to the Nuggets, Warriors and Bucks at home, as well as the Spurs and Grizzlies on the road.  They simply have to rely too much on Anthony Davis right now because they are playing so many scrubs and inexperienced players due to the injuries.

The Suns crushed the Pelicans in their finale two meetings last season, winning 104-88 at home and 121-100 on the road.  New Orleans is 8-18 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Pelicans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Plays against home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Suns Friday.

20* Knicks/Bulls ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 211.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks.  I expect the defensive intensity in this game to be very high with both Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah making their much-anticipated returns to Chicago.

The Bulls wanted to play faster under Fred Hoiberg, but that just hasn't been the case.  They rank 19th in pace this season at 98.7 possessions per game.  But they have actually been very good on defense this year as they are 12th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.4 points per 100 possessions.

That's really impressive when you consider the Bulls have faced the Celtics (twice) and Pacers, along with the up-tempo Nets.  They have played some of the best offenses in the NBA to this point.  And we've seen 207 or fewer combined points scored in three of Chicago's four games.

The Knicks have scored 99 or fewer points in three of their four games this season.  They are lost offensive right now as they are trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's new system.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring only 96.1 points per 100 possessions.

Recent head-to-head history also favors the UNDER.  The Bulls and Knicks have combined for 200 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 211.5-point total set.  New York is 9-0 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Temple/UConn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Temple -10

The Temple Owls are in position to win the AAC East division.  They are 4-1 in the conference, tied with South Florida atop the standings.  They hold the tiebreaker, too, so they essentially control their own destiny.  With that goal in mind, they'll be laying it all on the line tonight against UConn.

The Owls simply get no respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 ATS this season after killing it last season against the spread as well.  They have covered eight straight games since a fluke opening loss to Army.  And they are getting better and better as the season has gone one.

When you look at the numbers, Temple should be better than 6-3 straight up.  It has actually outgained eight of its nine opponents this season with the lone exception coming in a 27-34 road loss at Penn State.  The last four games have been super-impressive.

Temple lost 27-34 at Memphis despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and clearly should have won.  The Owls outgained UCF by 68 yards in a 26-25 road win the following week.  Then they came home and crushed USF 46-30 while outgaining them by 179 yards.  And they outgained Cincinnati by 288 yards in a 34-13 home win last week.

UConn is in a world of hurt right now.  It has lost three straight games with a 27-42 road loss at USF, a 16-24 home loss to UCF, and a 3-41 road loss at East Carolina last week.  Coach Bob Diaco fired his offensive coordinator after that performance against ECU.  He promoted his wide receivers coach, who has never been an offensive coordinator anywhere else before.

The fact of the matter is that a new WR coach isn't going to save this offense.  The Huskies are averaging just 18.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  QB Bryant Shirreffs has been terrible this season, and he's been the biggest problem.

Now the Huskies go up against a Temple defense that has been dominant once again.  The Owls are only giving up 22.7 points, 306 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 5.2 points and 80 yards per game less than their season averages.

And this Temple offense has really taken off this year.  It is averaging 33.8 points, 405 yards per game and 5.9 per play against opponents that allow 28.5 points and 5.3 per play.  The Owls put up 531 yards against Memphis, 518 against South Florida and 474 against Cincinnati in three of their last four games.  They have rushed for 275 and 319 yards in their past two games, respectively.

Temple has blown UConn out of the building the past two seasons.  It won 27-3 last year as 13.5-point home favorites.  It also won 36-10 as 6-point road favorites in 2014.  More of the same can be expected this season, especially with what's at stake for the Owls.

UConn is 1-10 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the past two seasons.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Temple Friday.

15* Falcons/Bucs AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

The Falcons are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL this season, and the numbers fully support it. They are 5-3 this season with their three losses coming by a combined 12 points. They are that close to being 8-0, and they finally got a break in a close game last week with a great win over the Packers.

The Falcons rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 46.0 yards per game. They are 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play. Those numbers alone show that the Falcons are among the league’s elite.

The Buccaneers may be 3-4, but they are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 38.3 yards per game. They rank 31st in yards per play differential, getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play.

Of course, the Bucs’ poor stats are largely due to their effort against the Raiders last week. There’s no way that game should have even gone to overtime. The Raiders committed 23 penalties and outgained the Bucs by a whopping 356 yards in that contest.

In fact, the Bucs have been outgained in five of their seven games this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have actually outgained six of their eight opponents this season. It’s clear to me by the numbers that the Falcons are contenders, and the Bucs are pretenders.

The Bucs are down several key weapons this week. They are without their top three running backs in Doug Martin, Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers. They are also without their No. 2 receiver in Vincent Jackson and top tight end Austin Saferian-Jenkins. Jameis Winston simply has too much on his plate right now.

The Bucs gave up a ridiculous 626 total yards to the Raiders last week, and now they’re up against the league’s top offense in the Falcons. Indeed, Atlanta ranks 1st in the NFL in total offense (425.2 yards/game), 1st in scoring offense (32.8 points/game) and 1st in yards per play (6.8 yards/play). The Bucs’ defense was on the field for 94 snaps in the OT loss to the Raiders, so they will be fatigued on this short week.

Matt Ryan and company want revenge on the Bucs from losing 24-31 in the opener at home. They also know that they’ve lost three straight in this series, and it’s time to end it. With the state the Bucs are in right now, it’s clear that is a likely possibility Thursday night.

The Falcons have played their best football on the road, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. The Bucs are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS at home this season, getting outscored by 10.3 points per game. Tampa Bay is 18-43-1 ATS in it s last 62 home games overall, and 5-14 ATS in home games over the past three seasons.  Roll with the Falcons Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves really should be 3-0 right now.  Instead they are 1-2 and undervalued.  They blew a 17-point lead at Memphis and lost 98-102.  They also blew an 18-point lead at Sacramento and lost 103-106.

But the Timberwolves showed a lot of fight in their home opener on Tuesday against Memphis.  They beat the Grizzlies 116-80 after keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Look for more of the same here at home against the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets are also 1-2, and while I really like this team and have backed them with success against the spread, I like the Timberwolves more.  The Nuggets' only win came on the road at New Orleans, which is 0-5 on the season.  They lost at home to Portland and on the road to Toronto.

While the Timberwolves are without Ricky Rubio, I believe they are better with Kris Dunn, who had 10 points, six assists and five steals in 29 minutes in the win over Memphis.  Denver is expected to be without Will Barton, who is their leading scorer at 18 points per game.  Gary Harris is also expected to miss this game with a groin injury.  Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 209.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight.  Minnesota is without starting PG Ricky Rubio, while Denver is without leading scorer Will Barton and starting SG Gary Harris.

Tom Thibodeau has changed the culture in Minnesota.  He has them slowing it down and playing defense.  The Timberwolves rank 28th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 96.2 possessions per game.  They will control the tempo here playing at home.  It's also worth noting that Minnesota ranks 6th in defensive efficiency, while Denver is 8th in the early going.

Recent head-to-head history between these teams even before Thibodeau was in Minnesota shows that there's value with the UNDER.  They have combined for 152, 212, 200, 173 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 184.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more three straight games are 32-9 (78%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo +20

Just bet the road team in Ohio games.  It has been that simple.  Indeed, the road team is 9-0 ATS in Ohio games this season.  The Bobcats have gone 5-0 ATS on the road, but 0-4 ATS at home.  And they are certainly laying too many points at home here against Buffalo tonight as 20-point favorites.

Ohio lost at home 54-56 as 17-point favorites to Texas State in the opener, and Texas State is terrible.  Ohio only beat Gardner Webb 37-21 at home as 30-point favorites.  The Bobcats only beat Bowling Green 30-24 as 11.5-point home favorites.  They also lost to Eastern Michigan 20-27 as 8-point home favorites.  They clearly can't be trusted at home.

I also don't like this spot for the Bobcats.  They are coming off a huge upset 31-26 win at Toledo as 15-point dogs last week.  Now they have a 1.5-game lead over Miami Ohio in the MAC East standings because they own the tiebreaker with the Redhawks.  So, they can lose this game and STILL be in first place in the division.  They won't be that motivated at all to face Buffalo tonight.

The Buffalo Bulls come in with a lot of confidence off their strongest performance of the season.  They beat Akron 41-20 at home last week as 19.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Zips by 212 total yards in what was every bit the dominant effort that the final score showed.  They racked up a season-high 518 total yards, including 378 rushing and 9.0 per carry in the win.

Buffalo beat Ohio 41-17 as 3-point home dogs last season.  The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Buffalo Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns +3.5

The Phoenix Suns are 0-4 this season and undervalued as a result.  But they have played a brutal schedule to open the season, and they're really going to be hungry for their first win at home tonight.

The Suns have lost to the Kings, Thunder, Warriors and Clippers.  They only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City in overtime as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs to really show what they are capable of.

The Portland Trail Blazers are in an awful spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And they just lost 104-127 to the Warriors last night, so they won't be nearly as excited to play the Suns here.  This is clearly a hangover spot for the Blazers.

Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more over the past two seasons.  Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more three straight games are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996.  Phoenix is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge from their only loss of the season, a 99-105 loss at Chicago on October 27th.  They were playing the second of a back-to-back that night, so it wasn't a great spot for them.

Now the Celtics have had three days off in between games to prepare for the Bulls, who have only had one day off.  That's a really nice rest advantage here, so the Celtics should be laying it all on the line tonight.

The Bulls come in overvalued due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  But two of their wins have come at home, and the other was a road win over the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Chicago is 3-13 ATS off a road win over the past two seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Cubs/Indians Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -115

The Chicago Cubs have all the momentum now after coming back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7.  I look for them to become the first team since the 1985 Royals to come back from 3-1 to win the World Series and capitalize on that momentum.

It's amazing to think that the Cubs actually are set up better to play on the road in this series.  That's because they get to use a DH, and there aren't many better DH's than Kyle Schwarber.  I love Joe Maddon's move to put him in the 2-hole to get him as many at-bats as possible, while also giving him some protection with the red-hot Kris Bryant behind him.

Kyle Hendricks will be on normal 4 days' rest here, and I would argue that he's the better starter in this matchup with his 2.03 ERA compared to Kluber's 3.01 ERA.  Josh Tomlin struggled on short rest last night, and Kluber will be making his 2nd consecutive start on short rest, this time getting only 3 days' rest.  I think the workload is going to catch up to Kluber tonight, especially with the way the Cubs have been swinging the bats these past two games.

The Cubs are 45-15 in their last 61 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 16-6 in Hendricks' last 22 starts, including a perfect 5-0 in his last five road starts.  The Cubs have won four of their last five road games in these playoffs.  Bet the Cubs in Game 7 Wednesday.

15* Toledo/Akron MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -10

The Toledo Rockets are 6-2 this season and clearly a top contender to win the MAC.  But if they want to win the conference, they're going to have to win out because Western Michigan likely isn't going to lose a game until these teams meet in the final week of the season.

The Rockets could easily be 8-0 as well.  Their two losses have come by 2 points at BYU and by 5 points against Ohio.  They lost to Ohio last week and will certainly be hungry to bounce back from that defeat here, adding to their motivation.

What impresses me the most about the Rockets is the fact that they have outgained all eight opponents this season, including five by more than 100 yards.  Their offense is putting up 39.4 points and 544 yards per game, while their defense is giving up 23.5 points and 377 yards per game.  They are outscoring opponents by nearly 16 points per game and outgaining them by 167 yards per game.

Akron is very fortunate to be 5-4 this season.  The Zips have only outgained three of their nine opponents, and one of those was Virginia Military in the opener.  They outgained Ball State by 86 yards and Miami Ohio by 39 yards for the other two.

Akron is only gaining 401 yards per game on the season and giving up a whopping 483 yards per game, getting outgained by 82 yards per game on the season.  They cannot run the ball as they only average 135 yards per game on the ground, so they are losing the time of possession battle nearly 35 minutes to 25 minutes on average.

Two of Akron's last three games really stand out and make be believe that Toledo should have no problem covering this 10-point spread.  Akron lost 41-0 at home to Western Michigan and was outgained by 302 yards.  Then the Zips lost 20-41 at Buffalo while getting outgained by 212 yards last week.  Buffalo is the worst team in the MAC, too.

Toledo is 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, so they've clearly had no trouble winning away from home.  Roll with Toledo Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +10.5

The Utah Jazz are simply catching too many points tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.  We'll gladly take advantage and back them as double-digit underdogs here.

This is really the perfect storm.  Utah is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS, while San Antonio is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  The betting public is all over the Spurs because of this and quick to fade the Jazz.  That has created some artificial line value here with the road dog.

It's worth noting that the Spurs have covered two games by a half point as they won by 8 as 7.5-point favorites over the Kings, and by 7 as 6.5-point favorites over the Heat.  It's also worth noting that both Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are banged up right now, though both are expected to play.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games against opponent after a game where they covered the spread are 162-100 (61.8%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for their first victory of the season.  After going on the road for their first two games and losing a couple heartbreakers, now they will be playing their home opener in front of a hostile crowd.  I look for a big performance from them.

And the Timberwolves really should have won their first two games.  They held an early 17-point lead against Memphis before losing 98-102.  They also squandered a big lead at Sacramento on Saturday.  They gave up an 18-point lead in the first half and lost 103-106.

Adding to the motivation for the Timberwolves is that they want revenge on Memphis here.  They were outscored by the Grizzlies 52-39 in the second half of the opener.  The Grizzlies are 2-1 this season, but they lost their only road game 104-111 to the New York Knicks.

The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* Cubs/Indians Game 6 No-Brainer on Chicago -142

The Chicago Cubs have some confidence now after winning their first elimination game of the postseason.  They beat the Indians 3-2 in Game 5 for a much-needed victory.  They believe they can still come back and win this series.

After all, Kris Bryant was told that the Cubs have had 17 three-game winning streaks following a loss this season.  So they know it's doable, and they certainly have the edge on the mound here in Game 6 with Jake Arrieta over Josh Tomlin.

Arrieta is 19-9 with a 3.15 ERA in 34 starts this season, while Tomlin is 15-9 with a 4.18 ERA in 32 starts.  Arrieta took a no-hitter into the 6th inning in Game 2 of this series in Cleveland, which Chicago won.

The Cubs are 40-15 in Arrieta's last 55 starts and 37-16 in his last 53 road starts.  Chicago is 44-15 in its last 60 games vs. a right-handed starter.  I fully expect Arrieta and company to force a Game 7.  Take the Cubs in Game 6 Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/T'Wolves UNDER 199.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves are already familiar with one another.  That's because they both opened the season against each other on October 26th.

Memphis beat Minnesota 102-98 for 200 combined points, barely going over the 199-point total.  Now we're seeing a similar total in the rematch, but points are going to be much harder to come by in the rematch.  That's why I believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.

I've also checked out the pace stats, and these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  Memphis ranks 28th in pace at 95.5 possessions per game.  Minnesota is 29th in pace at 94.3 possessions per game as Tom Thibodeau has them playing at a much slower tempo than last year.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Memphis is 53-33 UNDER in its last 86 road games after scoring 110 points or more in its previous game.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after scoring 100 points or more three straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-12 (75.5%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +17

The Bowling Green Falcons have been improving big-time as the season has gone on.  But they still remain undervalued here as they are catching 17 points in this MAC rivalry game with the Northern Illinois Huskies.  It's simply way too much.

Each of Bowling Green's last four losses have come by 14 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer.  And I was super-impressed with two of those efforts on the road.  The Falcons haven't been outgained by more than 39 yards in any of their last four games.

Bowling Green only lost 24-30 at Ohio as 11.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 19 yards.  The Falcons then went to Toledo and lost 35-42 as 31.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 39 yards in that contest.

Northern Illinois is just 2-6 on the season and doesn't deserve to be getting this much respect from oddsmakes.  But the Huskies come in undervalued due to easily covering as 24-point favorites in a 44-7 win over Buffalo.  But Buffalo is easily the worst team in the MAC this season.

The Falcons are going to be able to move the football on a Northern Illinois defense that hasn't been good at all this season.  The Huskies are giving up 33.5 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  That has been the biggest reason for their disastrous campaign thus far.

The Falcons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bowling Green is 41-20-2 ATS in its last 63 road games overall.  The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10.5

The Phoenix Suns are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have shown that in their past two games as they've hung right with two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors.

The Suns lost 110-113 in overtime at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs on Friday, and then gave the Warriors all they could handle in a 100-106 home loss Sunday as 11.5-point dogs.  But they're now 0-3 on the season, so they are extremely hungry for a victory right now, which should have them keeping this game close.

The Los Angeles Clippers are overvalued here today after starting 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with wins over the Blazers and the Jazz.  They beat the Blazers by 8 as 2.5-point road favorites, and the Jazz by 13 as 7.5-point home favorites on Sunday.  The Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Jazz were playing short-handed.

The Suns gave the Clippers trouble last season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  They won 114-105 and 118-104 in their two home meetings, and also only lost by 6 as 8.5-point road dogs in their three covers.  I look for them to stay within double-digits here tonight and possibly pull off the upset.

The Clippers are 5-16 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the past three seasons.  Plays against home teams (LA CLIPPERS) - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a bad team from last year (25% to 40%) are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -4

The Minnesota Vikings are hungry to bounce back from their first loss of the season.  They fell 10-21 on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles last week.  After committing just one turnover through the first five games, the Vikings gave the ball away four time against the Eagles to essentially hand them the victory.  They also allowed a kickoff return TD.

The Vikings are No. 1 in the NFL with 16 takeaways, getting nine interceptions and seven fumble recoveries.  They lead the NFL in turnover differential (plus-11) and total defense (279.5 yards/game).  They are also tied for No. 1 in scoring defense (14.0 points/game).

Now the Vikings will be up against a Chicago team that is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in this season.  The Bears rank last in the NFL in scoring at 15.9 points per game.  They are expected to start Jay Cutler at quarterback, but that's only because Brian Hoyer got hurt in a 10-26 loss at Green Bay last time out.  I don't believe the team totally supports Cutler, either.

Minnesota has won three straight and five of its past seven meetings with Chicago.  The Vikings are 19-4 ATS in all games over the past two seasons.  Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bears are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Denver Nuggets +7

The Denver Nuggets aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers in the early going, so I'm going to continue to back them here as I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They are catching 7 points here against the Toronto Raptors, which I feel is too much.

The Nuggets opened the season with a 107-102 road win over the Pelicans as 1.5-point dogs.  They led by double-digits most the way and outrebounded the Pelicans 69-42, and won despite committing 24 turnovers.  Then they lost to the Blazers 113-115 (OT) as 1.5-point home dogs.  They shot just 38% from the field, but had a 72-57 edge on the boards, which kept them in the game.

And they had a 2-point lead in regulation with 15 seconds left and turned the ball over.  They had a 2-point lead with four seconds left and missed two free throws.  So, they should have won that game, and they'll come back motivated here.

I like to fade the Toronto Raptors in this spot.  Their last game came at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a 91-94 loss.  After facing the defending champs last game, I don't foresee them being nearly as motivated to face the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets won both meetings with the Raptors as underdogs last season.  They won 106-105 as 10-point road dogs, and 112-93 as 4.5-point home dogs.  Denver is 10-1 ATS off two straight games where they outrebounded their opponent by 15 or more.  The Nuggets are 24-13 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons.  Denver is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Toronto.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +12

It's no surprise that the Golden State Warriors have opened 2016-17 way overvalued with the addition of Kevin Durant.  That has proven to be the case as they are 0-2 ATS.

They lost 100-129 at home to San Antonio as 8-point favorites, and failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites in a 122-114 road win over the Pelicans.  Now they are once again overvalued here as they're being asked to lay a whopping 12 points on the road to the Suns.

Phoenix is a team I'm going to be on early and often because they are undervalued.  The Suns played poorly in their opener, a 94-113 loss to the Kings, which has only added to their value.  But they took the Thunder to overtime on the road last time out as 7.5-point dogs and covered in a 110-113 loss.  Now they'll be up for this game against the two-time defending Western Conference champs.

The Suns played the Warriors tough in their final two meetings last year, losing by 8 as 16-point home dogs and by 7 as 19-point road dogs.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.

Plays against any team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first six games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Utah +7.5

The Utah Jazz are showing great value here as 7.5-point road dogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are clearly undervlaued right now after opening the season 0-2 against the spread.

They blew a fourth quarter lead in their opener and lost 104-113 as 5.5-point road dogs to the Blazers.  They also nearly blew a double-digit lead late in a 96-89 home win over the Lakers, failing to cover as 9-point favorites.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers now after winning 114-106 at Portland as 2.5-point road favorites.  But the Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back in that game and were clearly in a tough spot, and the Clippers gave a spirited effort as they wanted revenge from losing to the Blazers in the playoffs last year.

The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Jazz are 23-11-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is simply catching too many points here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* Packers/Falcons Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3

The Atlanta Falcons are tired of hearing about how they started 5-0 last season, only to fall apart the rest of the way and finish 8-8.  They believe they are a different team this season, but they've been hearing their naysayers all week leading up to this game against the Green Bay Packers.

Because they have lost two in a row, everyone in the media is panicking.  But those two losses came by a combined five points to the Seahawks and Chargers.  If not for a blown pass interference call, they would have beaten the Seahawks.  And they lost in overtime last week after failing to convert a fourth-and-1 from their own side of the field in overtime.

I think this is going to be a circle-the-wagons game for the Falcons here to avoid having the same fate as last season.  The players are going to want to win this game for their head coach in Dan Quinn, who took a gamble on that 4th-and-1 play, and the players really have to appreciate him putting their trust in them in that situation.  Matt Ryan and company will respond in a big way.

The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 32.7 points, 434 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  All are the best marks in the league.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play as well, which is also tops in the NFL.  Unlike last year, the numbers show that this is an elite team, and they already have wins over the two Super Bowl teams from last year in the Broncos and Panthers.

The Packers still aren't right offensively this season.  They are only averaging 344 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opponents that average 347 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  They have no running game to speak of with Eddy Lacy out, and he wasn't even effective when he was in there.  There's just too much pressure right now on Aaron Rodgers to do everything for him, and he hasn't handled it very well.

And this is a terrible matchup for the Packers' defense.  They are giving up 7.3 yards per pass attempt and now must face a Falcons offense that is averaging 319 passing yards per play and a sensational 9.2 per attempt.  Making matters worst for the Packers is that they are still without their top two corners in Sam Shield and Damarious Randall, and they could be without a third in Quinten Rollins, who is questionable with a groin injury.  Not to mention, top pass rusher Clay Matthews is questionable with a hamstring injury.  I just don't foresee the Packers getting many stops this week.

Dan Quinn is 8-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Atlanta.  The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs a team with a winning record.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are much better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  Remember, this is a team that went 15-1 last season and made the Super Bowl.  But now the Panthers are being way undervalued right now due to their poor start.

The bye week came at a great time for the Panthers as they needed it to get healthy.  Now they are near full strength entering this game.  And the Panthers are looking at these last 10 games as a completely new season.  The fact of the matter is that they are only three games back in the division and can still make a run at the division title.  So all of their goals are still in front of them.

The biggest difference for the Panthers this season is that they've lost the turnover battle.  After going +20 in turnover differential last season, they are -8 in turnover differential this season.  That has been a focal point during the bye week, and I look for Cam Newton and company to take much better care of the football going forward.

A big reason I say the Panthers are better than their record is because they have actually outgained four of their six opponents this season.  Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or less as well, and they outgained two of those opponents.  They missed a game-winning field goal attempt against Denver, gave away the game against the Bucs with four turnovers, and lost on a last-second field goal against the Saints.

The Arizona Cardinals are in a terrible spot here.  They are tired from their overtime tie against the Seahawks on Sunday Night.  Now this is a West Coast team traveling out East for an early 10:00 AM start.  And teams are just 34-59 ATS after playing the Seahawks the week prior.  That was a physical game that will have taken a lot out of them, while the Panthers are fresh off their bye, making this the perfect situation for the home team.

Don't forget how badly the Panthers beat the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game last year.  They won that game 49-15 while outgaining the Cardinals 476 to 287, or by 189 total yards.  Carson Palmer went just 23 of 40 for 235 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions in the loss.  And Palmer looks really washed up this season as age and injuries appear to finally be catching up to him.

Arizona is 0-7 ATS after allowing nine points or less last game over the past three seasons.  It is coming back to lose these games by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Carolina is 11-2 ATS in home games after playing its last game on the road over the past three seasons.  The Panthers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games versus good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games with Cam Newton at quarterback.  Newton is healthy after missing 1.5 games earlier this season and will lead the Panthers to a season-saving victory here.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New England Patriots -6.5

This line has already moved from -4.5 to -6.5 and I agree with the move.  And I wouldn't be surprise to see it get to -7 before game-time, so I would recommend betting it early.

The Patriots have been hitting on all cylinders since Tom Brady returned from his four-game suspension.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three straight double-digits wins, and they are an impressive 6-1 ATS on the season.  I think they make it four wins in a row this week.

The Patriots want revenge from their only loss of the season, a 16-0 shutout home loss to the Bills in Week 4.  But banged-up third-stringer Jacoby Brissett started that game and did not play well.  Having Brady back will make all the difference this week.

The Bills were getting a lot of love for winning four straight prior to last week.  But their four wins all came with asterisks in my opinion.  They beat the Cardinals, who committed five turnovers to give the game away.  Then they beat Brissett and the short-handed Pats.  Then they beat the Rams, who were missing three starting defensive linemen.  And they also beat the worthless 49ers with Colin Kaepernick making his first start.

But the Bills lost 25-28 on the road to the Dolphins last week in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Bills were outgained by 187 yards by the Dolphins, and they gave up over 200 yards rushing.

Now the roles are reversed in the rematch and it's the Bills who have all kinds of injury issues to skill position players.  LeSean McCoy re-aggravated his hamstring injury last week and is doubtful to play.  Top receiver Sammy Watkins has been out for a while.  But the next two best receivers are Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin.

Goodwin is doubtful to play this week after suffering an injury against the Dolphins, and Woods is questionable.  I just don't see how the Bills are going to move the football considering the Patriots can stack the box to stop the run, and they won't have to deal with McCoy.  I don't see Tyrod Taylor having much success through the air with all of the weapons he's missing.  He's been practicing with new faces at receiver all week.

The Patriots have never lost twice in the same season to a division opponent.  They are 18-3 ATS when playing with revenge against a division opponent in their last 21 chances.  New England is also 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road meetings with Buffalo.  A whopping 10 of those wins have come by 7 points or more as well.  New England will win this one by at least a TD, and likely double-digits this week.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -2

I backed the Nuggets with success in their 107-102 win over the New Orleans Pelicans in their opener on Wednesday night.  I'll come back with them here as they are showing great value as only 2-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers, who have beaten the Jazz but lost to the Clippers at home.  Now they'll be on their first road game.

The Nuggets have stockpiled talent and will prove to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting.  These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued.

But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him.  He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket.  Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop.  Both are above-average passers.

Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season.  Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year.  Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy.  Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.

The Nuggets controlled the game against the Pelicans in the opener as they led basically the entire way.  What was so impressive about that win was the fact that they committed 24 turnovers compared to 11 for the Pelicans, otherwise it would have been an even bigger blowout.  The Nuggets also had a 69-42 edge in rebounds, and they will outrebound most of their opponents this season because they are so strong inside.  And they have a lot of length at all positions.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

15* Indians/Cubs Game 4 No-Brainer on Chicago -127

The Chicago Cubs find themselves in the same position as last series.  Trailing 2-1 to the Dodgers, the Cubs reeled off three straight victories from then-on to win the series.  I think they can do the same thing here, and they will certainly have the confidence to pull it off considering they've already done it before.

Corey Kluber isn't invincible.  He is pitching on short rest here, just as he did in Game 4 against the Blue Jays.  The Indians lost that game, and I expect them to lose this one as well.  It was the first time that the Cubs have seen Kluber in Game 1, and they'll know what to expect the second time around.

Veteran John Lackey has a ton of postseason experience and won't shy away from the moment here.  The Cubs have won both of his postseason starts against the Giants and Dodgers.  Lackey is 11-8 with a 3.44 ERA in 31 starts this season.

The Cubs are 5-0 in Lackey's last five starts.  Chicago is 21-6 in its last 28 games followign a loss.  The Cubs are 8-1 in their last nine interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 6-1 in Lackey's last seven home starts.  Roll with the Cubs in Game 4 Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +44

This play is almost exclusively about motivation, or lack thereof, for the Texas A&M Aggies.  They just played their 'Game of the Year' against Alabama last week, and they're not going to be motivated at all to face New Mexico State this week.  I look for them to suffer a big hangover here, and for them to fail to cover this massive 44-point spread because of it.

Not only is it a flat spot for the Aggies, but you know that Kevin Sumlin isn't going to be concerned with playing his starters for much more than a half if they get up big early.  So New Mexico State will have a chance to play close to an even game in the second half against Texas A&M's backups if the game gets away from them early.

Admittedly, New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in college football, but I actually like the direction that head coach Doug Martin has this team headed.  We've seen New Mexico State beat a very solid New Mexico team that made a bowl last year and is likely headed to a bowl again this year.  They were 11-point dogs in that game.  They also beat LA Lafayette 37-31 as 5-point dogs.

Some will look at the 52-6 loss to Troy and say that Texas A&M is the right side.  But a closer look shows that New Mexico State actually outgained Troy by 47 yards in that game, but gave it away by committing five turnovers.  And that's the same Troy team that nearly beat Clemson earlier this season.  It was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I was really impressed with New Mexico State's 19-22 home loss to Georgia Southern as 13.5-point dogs last week.  The Aggies actually outgained the Eagles by 21 yards in that game.  Georgia Southern is one of the better non-Power 5 teams in the country.

What gives New Mexico State a chance to hang around in this game is their offense.  If I'm going to take a big dog like this, I like to know that they can at least score, and New Mexico State can.  It is actually averaging 432 yards per game against opponents that allow 406 yards per game, so this is actually an above-average offense.

New Mexico State features a passing attack that actually produces 300 yards per game.  Senior quarterback Tyler Rogers has thrown for 2,008 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7.2 yards per attempt.  After missing the first three games due to injury, senior RB Larry Rose III has returned to rush for 281 yards over the past four weeks.  He has 12 receptions for 86 yards as well.

Texas A&M's defense gets a lot of hype for its improvement, but the numbers show that the Aggies are just a middle-of-the-pack defense.  They give up 439 yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.  Rogers should find plenty of success through the air to put up enough points to stay within this 44-point spread.

Plays against any team (TEXAS A&M) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  

Kevin Sumlin is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the coach of Texas A&M.  Sumlin has his work cut out for him this week.  The players realize their dreams of winning the SEC West are crushed after that loss to Alabama.  Beating New Mexico State isn't going to change that.  I don't expect Texas A&M to show up at all here.  Take New Mexico State Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +24.5

For starters, this is the biggest underdog that the Michigan State Spartans have been in this rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines since 1992.  Secondly, 22 of the last 23 meetings have been decided by 24 points or less.  Those two facts alone show you just how much value there is on Michigan State here.

The betting public has bet Michigan from from -18.5 all the way up to -24.5 as of this writing on Thursday.  This is the perfect storm as the Wolverines could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now, while the Spartans couldn't be more undervalued heading into this game.

I always look to bet underdogs in rivalry games first, especially home underdogs.  But when these home dogs are getting more than 20 points, it's really a no-brainer.  I don't care what Michigan State has done to this point, the Spartans will show up for this game, and Mark Dantonio will have them ready to go.

The Spartans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games.  They have been favored in all five games, and the betting public has been killed by backing them, so they want nothing to do with them now.  But they weren't outplayed in any of those losses outside of BYU as they outgained two opponents and were only outgained by 15 and 21 yards in their two other losses.

In their only games as underdogs this season, the Spartans won outright 36-28 as 7.5-point road dogs at Notre Dame.  Dantonio absolutely relishes the role of the dog, and he takes this rivalry with Michigan very personally ever since they were called the 'little brother' several years ago.  He relays that message to his players as well.

Michigan State has risen to the occasion against Michigan over the past decade.  The Spartans are 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Michigan.  Their only loss came by a final of 10-12 in 2012 as 8.5-point road dogs.  The Spartans have won each of their last four home meetings with the Wolverines, including the last three in blowout fashion by 24, 23 and 14 points.

The Game of the Year line on this game released before the season was Michigan -2.  So this is a 22.5-point adjustment.  I agree that the Wolverines should be favored by more than 2 now after what we've seen, but this is too big of an adjustment.  I fully expect Michigan to win the game, but not by more than 24.5 points.

The Wolverines haven't been tested on the road yet.  Their only road game came against Rutgers, and Rutgers is the worst team in the Big Ten.  They've hardly been tested at all, really, because their schedule has been so soft.  The best team they played was Wisconsin, and they only beat them 14-7 at home.

Keep in mind that Michigan State actually outgained Wisconsin despite losing by 24 in what was a very misleading final.  This will be Michigan's biggest test of the season to this point in my opinion, especially since it's on the road.

Dantonio is 6-0 ATS vs good passing defenses that allow 150 or fewer passing yards per game as the coach of Michigan State.  The Spartans have never lost int his situation under Dantonio.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a great spot here.  They are coming off their bye week, and they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday at home against Kansas State.  They'll also be motivated for their first Big 12 win of the season, and this is clearly their best chance to get it as Kansas State is one of the worst teams in the conference.

Keep in mind that Iowa State nearly beat Baylor and Oklahoma State a few weeks back.  The Cyclones blew a 42-28 lead in the fourth quarter as 17-point home dogs to Baylor and lost 42-45 on a last second field goal.  They led 31-14 as 14-point road dogs at Oklahoma State and gave up 24 unanswered points to lose 31-38.

Those two performances really showed what they were capable of.  And the next week they were leading Texas 6-3 on the road at halftime, but ran out of gas and lost 27-6.  The bye week couldn't have come at a better time because the Cyclones really needed it to rest and get healthy.  They won't be running out of gas this week against Kansas State as they'll be ready for a big performance for four quarters.

That's especially the case considering they want revenge from last year's 35-38 road loss at Kansas State.  They led that game 35-14 and gave up 24 unanswered points over the final two quarters.  They fumbled with under two minutes to go when they could have kneeled on the ball and won.  Kansas State took advantage and tied it with 42 seconds to go, then capitalized on another turnover and won it on a 42-yard field goal with 3 seconds left.

Kansas State's numbers in conference games have been horrible.  Despite going 2-2 straight up, they have actually been outgained 340.2 to 467.0 in conference play, or by an average of nearly 127 yards per game.  Their offense is only averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season against teams that give up 422 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  Their offense just doesn't allow them to win in blowouts, which is why the 6.5-point spread could easily come into play.

The head-to-head history in this series also shows that there's a ton of value with the home dog.  Indeed, seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.  The sick part about that is that Kansas State has won all eight.  The Cyclones are tired of it, and they finally should be able to do something about it this year now that they are in a great spot coming off their bye week.

The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  First-year head coach Matt Campbell will have used this bye week to correct the mistakes, and I look for the Cyclones to continue to be a good bet moving forward, especially this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +13.5

I had five premium picks last Saturday, and Purdue and Penn State were two of them.  Purdue covered as 24-point dogs at Nebraska, while Penn State won outright as 19.5-point dogs against Ohio State.  So I feel like I have a good grasp on both of these teams.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Penn State off that big win over Ohio State.  The Nittany Lions have been getting patted on the back all week, and now I look for them to fall flat against Purdue here.  Keep in mind that Ohio State outgained Penn State by 94 yards in that game and should have won.  The Nittany Lions were the right side as 19.5-point dogs, but they should not have won outright as it took a miracle blocked FG returned for a TD.

James Franklin wasn't concerned with looking ahead to this game as he wanted to relish in the moment.  "Obviously these types of wins are important," Franklin said. "To be honest with you, I don't want to spend a lot of time thinking about the big picture right now, I just want to soak this all in. Nights like this don't happen very often."

I really like what I've seen from Purdue the past three games.  They won outright as 9-point underdogs at Illinois, they scored 35 points and put up over 500 yards of offense against Iowa in a 14-point loss, and they actually led Nebraska 14-10 on the road at halftime last week before losing by 13, easily covering as 24-point dogs.

Boilermaker quarterback David Blough leads the Big Ten in completions (173) and yards (2,065) and has already thrown 14 touchdown passes.  Senior receiver DeAngelo Yancey is coming off a big game against Nebraska with four catches for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  And the defense held Nebraska to just 27 points, including 157 rushing yards on 37 carries, which equates to 4.2 per carry.  It was their most impressive defensive performance yet.

Clearly the switch to interim head coach Gerad Parker last week has rejuvenated the Boilermakers.  He has instilled a more positive, upbeat approach.  I liked what he had to say after the narrow loss to Nebraska, and the fact of the matter is that at 3-4, the Boilermakers could legitimately still make a run at a bowl game.

"It was a fun run. We have to take that and build off of that so we become that same team the second half," Parker said. "It was a fun ride. You could see the belief in those kids' eyes. I think they know they let one fall through here. That's how they feel. It's going to be fun to coach them the rest of the weeks to try to get them to this point where they keep believing."

Penn State has benefited from playing three straight home games, all of which they have won, two of which have come by a field goal.  The other was a blowout win over a Maryland team that lost starting quarterback Perry Hills and could never recover.

But the Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road this season, losing at Pittsburgh and at Michigan by 39 points.  In fact, they have lost their last seven true road games dating back to a November 18, 2014 victory at Indiana.  This team has been an awful road bet for years, and now they're being asked to lay nearly two touchdowns away from Happy Vally.

Penn State has only covered the spread in 3 of its last 19 road games.  It is 0-8 ATS on the road over the past three seasons alone.  Purdue is 7-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (PURDUE) - after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +33

The Louisville Cardinals are getting way too much love from the betting public right now.  This line actually opened at -25.5 and has jumped nearly 8 points to -33.  I felt the opener was about right, but now we're getting all kinds of value here with Virginia catching 33 at home.

Many think Louisville needs style points to make the four-team playoff, and while that is somewhat true, it's also overblown.  What is the difference between a 21-point win and a 35-point win against Virginia in the eyes of the playoff committee? The answer is not much at all, and it's more realistic that they win by 21 than 35.

I also think that the Cardinals are even more overvalued this week due to their 54-13 win over NC State last week.  But that was an awful spot for NC State, which was coming off a devastating overtime loss at Clemson.  The Wolfpack missed a short field goal that would have won that game.  They came out flat against Louisville and got pummeled.

Virginia is not going to come out flat.  It is looking forward to this opportunity to play one of the top teams in the country at home.  And I think the Cavaliers are being undervalued due to their 14-35 loss to UNC as 10.5-point dogs last week.  This line (-33) implies that Louisville is 23 points better than UNC, and I just don't think that's the case.

And that performance against UNC was by far the worst for Virginia in weeks.  In the four prior games, Virginia outgained UConn by 104 yards in a 10-13 road loss, beat Central Michigan 49-35 at home, won 34-20 at Duke, and outgained Pitt by 18 yards in a 31-45 loss that was a misleading final.  Pitt got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only gained 346 yards of offense.

Virginia had poor teams the past two years, yet still played Louisville tough.  The Cavaliers only lost 31-38 as 13.5-point road dogs at Louisville last year.  They also won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs in 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (VIRGINIA) - after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  This system has actually gone a perfect 9-0 ATS over the past five seasons.

Virginia is 12-3 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, only losing by 7.3 points per game on average.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 125 or more yards in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Virginia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +10

I still believe the Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season despite their ugly performance in their opener.  But that 94-113 home loss to Sacramento has only added to their value here against the Oklahoma City Thunder as they are catching double-digits.

The Thunder have no business being double-digit favorites after losing Kevin Durant this offseason.  They barely survived in a 103-97 win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their opener.  Their options are very limited on offense now, and I don't foresee them putting away the Suns by double-digits here.

Phoenix has one of the best guard trios in the NBA in Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.  The Suns didn't get off to a good start against the Kings as they trailed 57-38 at half, but their depth really showed as the second unit was able to cut the lead to 10 in the third quarter, though that was as close as they would get.  Veteran starters in Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler and company will look for a big bounce-back performance here.

The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up loss.  The Suns are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* Indians/Cubs Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -185

The Chicago Cubs picked up a huge Game 2 victory by a final of 5-1.  Now they will take control of this series with a win in Game 3 in front of a raucous crowd at Wrigley Field.  After all, this will be the first World Series game played at Wrigley in a whopping 71 years.

Now the Cubs send their best starter to the mound in Kyle Hendricks, who is 10-3 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in 17 home starts this season.  Hendricks has carried over that success in the postseason by going 1-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in three playoff starts.

There's no question that the Cubs have a massive edge on the mound in this one.  Hendricks will be opposed by Josh Tomlin, who is 15-9 with a 4.31 ERA in 31 starts this season.  The Cubs have scored five runs or more in four of their last five games, and their bats should stay red hot against Tomlin tonight.

The Cubs are 27-11 in Hendricks' last 38 home starts.  Chicago is 16-5 in Hendricks' last 21 starts overall.  The Cubs are 57-23 in their last 80 home games.  Chicago is 43-13 in its last 56 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Cubs in Game 3 Friday.

15* Navy/USF ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +6.5

The Navy Midshipmen have been one of the most underrated teams in college football last season. Many thought they would take a big step back with the loss of Keenan Reynolds, and then their opening day starting QB Tago Smith, but that simply has not been the case. Ken Niumatalolo has done a tremendous job.

Navy is off to a 5-1 start this season with its only loss coming on the road at Air Force. The last two games have really shown what the Midshipmen are capable of. They beat Houston 46-40 as 16-point home underdogs, and Memphis 42-28 as 1.5-point home favorites. Both Houston and Memphis were among the favorites to win the AAC this season.

The Midshipmen rushed for 306 yards against Houston and 447 yards against Memphis. Senior QB Will Worth has been phenomenal. He has rushed for a combined 316 yards over the past two games and four touchdowns, while also throwing four touchdown passes through the air without an interception.

South Florida is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. That was evident last week in a 30-46 loss at Temple as 5.5-point favorites. The Bulls were thoroughly outplayed in that game as the Owls outgained them by 179 yards. I have a feeling this team is running out of gas.

South Florida hasn’t had a bye week yet. The Bulls have played 8 straight weeks to open the season, and this will be their 9th straight. They showed signs of wearing down against Temple last week. Meanwhile, Navy has only played six games this season, so it is clearly the fresher team right now. And the Midshipmen had a bye before playing Memphis last week.

Making matters worse is that the injuries are piling up for the Bulls because of this brutal schedule to open the season without a bye week.  Quarterback Quinton Flowers suffered a hamstring injury last week against Temple, and even though he's expected to play tonight, he's not going to be the same dual-threat QB he normally is as he'll be operating at much less than 100%.  The Midshipmen won't have to worry about his legs as much as they would have otherwise.

This is a very bad matchup for the Bulls, who are giving up 206 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season. They allowed 319 rushing yards to Temple last week and 478 to Florida State earlier this season. The Midshipmen average 293 yards per game and 5.3 per carry on the ground. They will try to break USF’s will this week and test their stamina with their triple-option attack.

Navy dominated South Florida in a 29-17 home victory last season. The Midshipmen racked up 444 total yards, including 428 rushing. They held the Bulls to just 270 total yards, outgaining them by 174 yards in the win.

The Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games versus poor rush defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game. Navy is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win. The Midshipmen are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Navy Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +8.5

The Sacramento Kings shot the lights out in the preseason, and it certainly carried over into their regular season opener last night against the Phoenix Suns.  They won 113-94 and shot 51.2% from the field.  Now the fans will come out excited for their home opener Thursday night against the San Antonio Spurs.

Dave Joerger, the former Grizzlies' coach, is working his magic for the Kings this season.  DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points and 13 boards in only 24 minutes last night.  Rudy Gay had 22 points, and newcomers Matt Barnes (14) and Garrett Temple (12) both had solid games as well.  This is clearly a better roster than the Kings are getting credit for.

I love fading the San Antonio Spurs in this spot.  They are coming off a statement win over the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night in their opener.  They killed the Warriors on the boards, but that won't be the case against the Kings.  And the Spurs certainly won't be up for the Kings like they were against the Warriors.

The Kings will be unveiling their new $557 million, 17,500-seat Golden 1 Center arena in the city's downtown area.  Look for them to play with added incentive tonight to please their home fans, which makes me much less concerned that they are playing the second of a back-to-back here, especially since they didn't need their starters to play big minutes last night against Phoenix.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

15* Jags/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +3.5

The Jaguars have been abysmal at home this season, but they have played their best on the road.  They are 2-1 away from home with a win over the Colts in London, as well as a 17-16 win at Chicago.  For whatever reason, they just don't play well in front of their home fans, and it's probably because the boo birds are quick to come out.

The same can be said for the Titans, who have been atrocious at home over the past few years.  They are just 1-3 at home this season with their only win coming by a final of 28-26 over the Cleveland Browns, who are the only winless team left in the NFL.

In fact, the Titans are just 2-9 ATS at home over the past two seasons, getting outscored by 8.4 points per game on average.  They are 14-34-3 ATS in their last 51 home games as well.  Time and time again their home-field advantage has been overrated, and I believe that is the case again here with this 3.5-point spread in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal or less.

The numbers indicate the Jaguars are better than their record.  They are averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and giving up only 4.9 yards per play on defense.  They actually rank 9th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  They have also outgained four of their six opponents this season.  If they can just cut down on the turnovers, this team will get better results in the win column going forward.

The Tennessee Titans are a slightly below-average team as they average 5.8 yards per play on offense, but give up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play on the season.  I believe yards per play stats are some of the most important in the NFL, and they clearly favor the Jaguars, especially defensively.  The Jags rank 9th in the NFL in total defense and 4th in yards per play allowed.

The Titans are only averaging 218 passing yards per game, so they have been relying heavily on a rushing attack that produces 143 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  Well, the Jaguars have been solid against the run, giving up 110 yards per game on average and only 3.9 per carry.

The Jaguars have been relying on moving the football through the air, and the Titans give up 251 passing yards per game and 7.2 per attempt this season, which is clearly the weakness of their defense.  Blake Bortles threw for 322 yards and five touchdowns without an interception in last season's 39-42 loss at Tennessee.

Tennessee is 0-10 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Titans are 1-12 ATS vs. AFC South opponents over the last three seasons.  Tennessee is 0-7 ATS vs. poor teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Jacksonville.  Take the Jaguars Thursday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 61

This total just seems inflated to me because Pittsburgh has been a great over bet this season, going over the total in six straight games.  I look for them to be a great under bet going forward now that oddsmakers have over-adjusted.

Pat Narduzzi built his reputation on defense after serving as Michigan State's defensive coordinator for so many years.  You can bet that he is not liking what he's seeing out of the defense thus far.  And there's no question that defense was the focal point of the Panthers over the past two weeks as they had a bye last week.

That extra time and preparation from the bye week should work wonders for the Panthers' defense here.  And this defense has actually been improving of late as the points given up have been a bit skewed.  The Panthers are giving up 30.7 points per game over their last three games despite only giving up 359.7 yards per game.

Virginia Tech's defense has been elite all season.  The Hokies are only giving up 17.9 points, 302 yards per game and 4.4 per play against opponents that average 26.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So, they are holding foes to 8.5 points, 96 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

Both teams love to run the football, and both are stout against the run, making this a great matchup for both defenses.  VA Tech averages 48 rushing attempts per game compared to 29 pass attempts.  Pitt averages 47 rush attempts per game compared to 23 pass attempts.  These run-heavy approaches should keep the clock moving, which also favors the UNDER.

The Hokies average 198 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, but the strength of the Panthers defense is stopping the run as they give up only 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  The Panthers average 239 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry, but the Hokies only allow 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.

The head-to-head history between these teams really stood out to me.  Pitt and VA Tech have combined for 52 or fewer points in their last four meetings over the past four seasons.  They have combined for 30, 37, 28 and 52 points in the past four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 36.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than this total of 61.

VA Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 10-1 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last three years.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hokies last six road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Panthers last eight games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Hokies last 51 conference games.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Hokies last 26 Thursday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

Note: I released this UNDER 61 as soon as the total came out on Monday.  I figured it would move, and it has.  It's now down to 57 as of Tuesday afternoon.  I still recommend a 20* play on the UNDER all the way down to 55, so keep that in mind.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -2.5

The Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They suffered a rash of injuries last season that led to a 23-win campaign, but now most of those players gained valuable experience, and now they enter 2016-17 healthy.

Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight both missed significant time last season, but now they are ready to go to start the season.  Their injuries allowed Devin Booker to flourish.  He became the fourth-youngest player to score 1,000 points in a season.  Now he's the starting shooting guard and he's still shy of 20 yards of age, and he finished 5th in the preseason in scoring at 19.6 points per game.

The Suns also added veterans Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa this offseason.  P.J. Tucker has been cleared to play and will play a big role off the bench.  T.J. Warren, coming off season-ending foot surgery, will start at forward with Dudley and Tyson Chandler at center.

The Sacramento Kings still have the same cancerous nucleus of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay.  And Sacramento will start the season without starting point guard Darren Collison, who begins his eight-game suspension due to domestic battery.  That means journeyman Ty Lawson will start at point for the Kings.  Lawson is coming off two poor seasons and two DUI arrests in 2015.  This is simply a team in turmoil right now that we'll look to fade early and often.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 199.5

Tom Thibodeau was a great hire for the Timberwolves and will work wonders for them as soon as this season.  His influence on the defensive side of the ball has already been apparent in the preseason.

The Timberwolves played seven preaseson games, and only allowed more than 100 points once.  They gave up an average of 94.6 points per game in the preseason, which is a huge improvement after finishing as one of the league's worst defensive teams last season.  Thibodeau's impact is the sole reason for that.

The Memphis Grizzlies are still an offensively-challenged outfit.  They run their offense through Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, who are two solid big men.  But they like to slow it down.  I like the addition of Chandler Parsons to upgrade their shooting, but he's currently injured and unavailable for the opener.

There is a hidden angle here that should also help the UNDER.  The Timberwolves and Grizzlies just faced each other one week ago today.  The Timberwolves won that game 101-94 at home for 195 combined points.  These teams are now familiar with each other after playing a week ago, which certainly favors the defenses.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record are 126-66 (65.6%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  New head coach Mike Malone steps into a great situation as the Nuggets have stockpiled talent, and now that talent should shine through this season as the Nuggets make a run at the playoffs.

Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting.  These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued.  But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him.  He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket.  Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop.  Both are above-average passers.

Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season.  Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year.  Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy.  Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.

New Orleans won just 30 games last year thanks to a boat load of injuries.  Their players missed a combined 351 games, forcing coach Alvin Gentry to use 42 starting lineup combinations.  And unfortunately for Gentry, injuries continue to be a problem starting the season.  The Pelicans went just 1-5 in the preseason.

Anthony Davis suffered an ankle injury on October 12, but returned for the preseason finale on Friday.  He is scheduled to start, but won't be 100%.  Tyreke Evans (knee) won't return until December, forward Quintin Pondexter (knee) is out indefinitely, and starting PG Jrue Holiday is caring for his ill wife Lauren, and there's no timetable for his return.

Now the Pelicans' starting lineup looks awful without those three.  They will be starting Tim Frazier at point guard, E'Twaun Moore at shooting guard, Solomon Hill at small forward, Davis at power forward and Omer Asik at center.  This isn't a lineup that's going to win a lot of games in the early going.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* Cubs/Indians Game 2 No-Brainer on Chicago -133

The Chicago Cubs are in must-win mode in Game 2 after dropping Game 1 of the series 6-0 to the Indians.  They should be massive favorites in every game outside of games started by Corey Kluber, who was just filthy last night.

Jake Arrieta is 18-9 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 33 starts this season.  The Cubs have a clear edge on the mound in this game as he'll be opposed by Trevor Bauer, who is 10-8 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.307 WHIP in 30 starts.  Bauer is 6-4 with a 4.65 ERA in 17 home starts, and 0-0 with a 4.76 ERA in his last three outings.

Arrieta is a sensational 14-1 (+12.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are winning these starts by Arrieta by an average of 3.8 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* Cubs/Indians World Series Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -111

The Chicago Cubs will take Game 1 of this series behind ace Jon Lester, who has been unhittable in this postseason.  He has pitched in these big games way more often than Corey Kluber, so I simply trust him more.

Lester is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 21 innings over three starts in the playoffs this season.  He has given up just two earned runs in those 21 innings of work.  Lester is 21-5 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 35 starts this season.

Lester won 65 games inf our full season as a starter under Terry Francona in boston as well.  He is 8-6 with a 2.05 ERA in 19 playoff appearances, 17 starts, and he won four games in the Red Sox's run to the 2013 World Series title.

Lester will be supported by an offense that produced 33 hits and 23 runs while winning the final three games of the NLCS against the Dodgers.  Lester is 19-2 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.  Chicago is 10-1 in Lester's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* 2016 NBA Season Opener on Knicks/Cavs UNDER 206

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the season opener between the Cleveland Cavs and New York Knicks.  I don't expect either offense to be hitting on all cylinders in this contest, especially the Knicks.

The Knicks have had a lot of turnover this offseason.  They are relying on Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, their two biggest signings, to play big minutes.  But those two both missed most of the preseason, Noah with an injury and Rose with legal troubles.  They will be out of sync for sure, especially trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's offense on the fly.

Recent head-to-head history really has me liking the UNDER as well.  The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 200, 175, 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points.  That's an average of 182.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.

New York is 30-15 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 or more points over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 32-14 to the UNDER against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Texans/Broncos ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -7.5

The Denver Broncos enter this game hungry for a victory.  They have lost two straight to the Falcons and Chargers after opening the season 4-0.  Look for them to put their best foot forward this week for a number of reasons and to ultimately cover this 7.5-point spread.

The Broncos had a couple issues that held them back the past few weeks.  They had to start a rookie QB in Paxton Lynch against the Falcons after Trevor Siemian was out with a shoulder injury.  Siemian returned to face the Chargers last week, but head coach Gary Kubiak missed the game due to an illness, and the offense clearly missed his play-calling.

This is also a great spot for the Broncos in terms of rest and preparation.  They have a mini-bye week since they played last Thursday against San Diego.  Meanwhile, the Texans needed overtime to beat the Colts after erasing a 23-9 deficit at home with two touchdowns in the final three minutes.

Houston is 4-0 at home this season, but 0-2 on the road losing to the Patriots and Vikings by a combined score of 13-58.  Their offense has been atrocious away from home, putting up just 6.5 points, 249 total yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.

I simply do not trust this Texans' offense.  Their offense ranks fourth-worst in the NFL averaging less than 5 yards per play.  The culprit has been Brock Osweiler and the passing game, which ranks third-worst in the NFL at 5.4 yards per pass play.

Now Houston will be up against an elite Denver defense that is only yielding 4.7 yards per play, second-best in football. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL against the pass (182.3 yards/game) and 1st in sacks (21).  Their defense will shut down the Texans and lead them to victory here.

I also expect the Broncos' offense to get on track with Kubiak back calling the plays, and a healthy Siemian at quarterback.  And I expect the running game to get going against a Houston defense that ranks 29th in the NFL against the run, giving up 126 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Plays on favorites (DENVER) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 44-19 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The favorite won by an average of 11.9 points per game over this span.  Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games, while Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* Patriots/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +7

The New England Patriots are the biggest public team in the NFL.  Now that they've won and covered two straight games over the Browns and Bengals since Tom Brady's return, the public is supporting them at an alarming rate.

Nearly 90% of the bets placed have been on the Patriots in this game, yet the line has dropped from -7.5 down to -7, and I can see it dropping even further before game-time.  That's because the big money is on the Steelers, and I agree 100% that it should be.

This line was pick 'em when prior to last week's games on the advanced line.  That was with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, but now that he's out, the oddsmakers have adjusted this line a full 7 points.  No player in the NFL is worth 7 points on the spread, not even Roethlisberger or Brady.  So there's clearly value here with the Steelers with that fact alone.

I'm not concerned with backing Landry Jones.  He has had a full week to prepare to be the starter, and I expect him to be much more comfortable in front of his home crowd.  Plus, he has the luxury of arguably the best weapons in the NFL around him, which will make his job a lot easier.

I fully expect Mike Tomlin and Todd Haley to ride Le'Veon Bell in this one.  Bell only got 10 carries against Miami last week, and you can bet that he wasn't happy about it.  This game plan will be revolved around getting Bell the football and possessing the rock, keeping New England's offense off the field.  It will work, too.

After missing the past two games, LB Ryan Shazier is expected to return for the Steelers.  They have really missed him because he does so many things for this defense.  His speed allows him to cover backs out of the backfield, and the Patriots love to use their backs as receivers.  In fact, James White caught eight balls with two of them going for touchdowns last week for the Bengals, so Shazier figures to eliminate that threat this week for the Patriots.

The Steelers are clearly undervalued right now after their 15-30 loss at Miami, just like they were following their 3-34 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season.  All they did the following week was bounce back with a 43-14 home win over Kansas City as 3-point favorites.  I was all over the Steelers in that game as my 25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR, and I'm all over them here, too.

After all, the Steelers have been absolutely dominant at home, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They are scoring 32.7 points per game and giving up 14.3 points per game at home, outscoring opponents by 18.4 points per game on average.

The Steelers are 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons.  They are bouncing back to win by 22.1 points per game on average.  Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  It is bouncing back to win by 20.8 points per game on average.  The Steelers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Chargers +6.5

The San Diego Chargers catch a break this week for a couple reasons.  One, this isn't the daunted West Coast to East game for an early start time where their body clocks would normally be playing at 10:00 AM.  That's because this start time has been moved back to 4:05 EST, which is what they're used to.  The Chargers also have the advantage of a mini-bye week after playing the Broncos last Thursday.

Fun Fact: The Chargers have held a lead for more minutes than any team in the NFL this season.  That would normally be the sign of one of the best teams in the NFL.  Instead, the Chargers are 2-4 right now when they should be no worse than 4-2.  All four of their losses have come by 6 points or less this season.  They've simply had horrible luck late in games.

But the Chargers finally got the monkey off their back last week in a 21-13 home win over the Broncos.  They controlled the game from start to finish, and even had to settle for four field goals, otherwise it would have been an even bigger blowout.  Now they are rejuvenated following that mini-bye.

While this is a great spot for San Diego, it's an awful one for Atlanta.  They are coming off back-to-back road trips out West to Denver and Seattle.  So they haven't seen their families in nine days or more.  They had a tough 2-point loss to the Seahawks last week, and I expect a hangover effect as well.

Plus, teams have been terrible the week after playing Seattle.  I don't know if it's because of their physicality or what, but teams are 34-58 ATS in their last 92 games after facing the Seahawks.  I highly doubt the Falcons will be as fired up to face the Chargers this week as they were against the Seahawks.

I also think the Falcons are overvalued right now after their fast start.  They have covered the spread in five straight games, all of which have come in the underdog role.  Now they are laying 6.5 points, which is by far the most they have been favored this season.  They were only 2.5-point favorites against the Bucs in Week 1.  Remember, this is a team that started 6-0 last year and wound up finishing just 8-8.  It's time to fade them.

Philip Rivers is having another great season, completing 67% of his passes with a 12-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  The Falcons are giving up 28 points per game, along with 68% completions and 285 passing yards per game this season.  Rivers figures to have a huge day through the air in this one, which is why the Chargers are never going to be out of it.

The Chargers' defense got a huge lift a few weeks back with Joey Bosa's return.  He wreaked havoc in the Broncos' backfield last week, and the Chargers certainly have a better pass rush than the Falcons.  That is the biggest weakness for the Falcons this season is their lack of a pass rush, and they will get exposed by Rivers, especially with his quick release.

The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  San Diego is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  It is actually getting outscored overall in its last 10 in the role of the favorite.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles +3

This is an identical situation to two weeks ago.  The Eagles were coming off their bye and facing the Lions.  The line advanced line was Lions -1, but after the Lions lost to the Bears, the Eagles ended up being 3-point favorites.  They failed to cover in a 23-24 loss to the Lions.

The advanced line on this game was Eagles -1, but it has now shifted to Vikings -3.  And the Vikings had a bye last week, so the only reason for the move was the Eagles' 20-27 road loss to the Redskins.  The betting public got killed on that game and now has no faith in the Eagles.  It's time to buy low on them.

Back-to-back road losses to the Lions and Redskins aren't that big of a deal, and they only lost those two contests by a combined eight points.  I am not ready to downgrade the Eagles as much as the betting public is.  I still believe this is one of the better teams in the NFL and closer to the one that started 3-0 than the one that is 0-2 in the last two.

The Eagles should get back on track at home this week.  After all, they are 2-0 at home this season, outscoring Cleveland and Pittsburgh a combined 63-13, or by 50 points.  They are still outscoring teams by an average of 11.4 points per game on the season.

Minnesota could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has opened the season 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  The Vikings have now gone 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  I think we're going to have an excellent opportunity to fade them in the coming weeks.

The Vikings are 2-0 on the road this season, but they were fortunate to win both games.  They beat the Titans 25-16 after trailing 10-0 thanks to two defensive touchdowns.  They beat the Panthers 22-10 after trailing 10-0 thanks to the help of a punt return TD.  They were actually outgained by a combined 110 yards by the Panthers and Titans in those two road games.

I think the Vikings' luck finally runs out this week.  They have committed just one turnover through five games this season, and they simply cannot keep that pace up.  They are +11 in turnover differential through five games, and that pace won't hold up, either.  They are on a +35 turnover pace for the season, which is unheard of.

While there's no denying that the Vikings have an elite defense, there is also no denying that their offense is one of the worst in the NFL.  They are averaging just 303 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opponents that give up 338 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Their 5.0 yards per play on offense ranks 29th in the NFL.

Plays on underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1983.  It's simply time to sell high on the Vikings and buy low on the Eagles.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/LSU ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on LSU -6.5

The LSU Tigers have new life under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.  They have played their two best games with him at the helm, and now they're chomping at the bit to get a shot at Ole Miss in Baton Rouge in front of a hostile Saturday night home crowd.

In their first game under Orgeron, they beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards.  In their second game last week, the beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards.

"You can see a little pep in their step. Guys are making plays, guys are having fun," Orgeron said this week. "I know they feel good about being 2-0."

Amazingly, LSU's offense went off even without Leonard Fournette.  That's because backup Derrius Guice is another future NFL back.  He has rushed for 564 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 9.1 per carry.  But now Fournette is coming back this week, and this is now arguably the best 1-2 RB punch in the entire country.

Danny Etling has done a good job since taking over as the starting quarterback.  He has thrown for 925 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt.  And this offense has been well above average as the Tigers are putting up 6.8 yards per play against opponents that only allow 5.5 per play.

There's no question LSU has a massive edge on defense.  It is giving up just 14.0 points per game against opponents that average 27.4 points per game.  Ole Miss is allowing 30.3 points per game against opponents that average 32.2 points per game.  The Rebels also allow 213 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, so Fournette and Guice are primed to have huge games here.

I really question the mindset of Ole Miss now that is just 3-3 after falling to Arkansas 30-34 on the road last week.  Now the Rebels are essentially buried and have no shot at winning the SEC West, while LSU is right in the thick of the race and actually hosts Alabama in two weeks.  I just like the mindset of the Tigers a lot more than the Rebels heading into this one because of it.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that LSU want revenge from a 17-38 road loss at Ole Miss last year.  That game was far from the blowout that the score showed as LSU actually outgained Ole Miss 508 to 432 in that game.  Home-field advantage has meant a lot in this series as the home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings with the lone exception being an LSU 52-3 road win in 2011.

LSU is a perfect 18-0 straight up in its last 18 October home games.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last three seasons.  The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Penn State Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +19.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a great spot here.  They are coming off a bye week, so they've had two full weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes.  They are going to be ready to play in front of a hostile crowd on Saturday night in Happy Valley at 8:00 EST.

The Buckeyes are more and more overvalued with each passing week following their 4-0 ATS start.  They failed to cover as 28.5-point favorites in a 21-point home win over Indiana.  Then, they survived an overtime scare from Wisconsin on the road as 10-point favorites last week in a 30-23 win.

Wisconsin took advantage of its bye coming into last week and arguably should have beaten Ohio State.  It actually outgained the Buckeyes by 39 yards for the game and poked some holes in that Ohio State defense.  The Badgers rushed for 236 yards and threw for 214 in the loss.

Penn State is 4-0 at home this season to improve to 10-1 SU in its last 11 home games overall.  That's what I would call a tremendous home-field advantage.  Yet, Penn State is now the biggest home underdog it has ever been this week.  That fact alone shows you that there is value with the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is clearly getting better.  After beating Minnesota 29-26 in their Big Ten home opener, they throttled Maryland 38-14 despite being 2.5-point underdogs last time out.  This game was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated.  The Nittany Lions outgained the Terrapins by 254 yards in that contest.

Penn State is vastly improved on offense this season.  It is putting up 30.5 points and 391 yards per game against opponents that only allow 22.5 points and 331 yards per game.  Its defense has also held its own in allowing 28.5 points per game against opponents that average 34.5 points per game.  And this defense is now getting a lot healthier after the bye week as injuries decimated them in the early going.

The Nittany Lions have played the Buckeyes tough at home recently.  They lost 24-31 (OT) in their last home meeting in 2014 as 14-point dogs.  They haven't lost by more than 17 points to Ohio State in any of their last three home meetings.  The home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

Trace McSorley is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 186 yards and three scores.  Saquon Barkley is healthy now and starting to put up big numbers.  He's up to 582 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on the season.

Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1992.  Take Penn State Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +124

Again we're seeing the Chicago Cubs as rare home underdogs here.  The last time they were home dogs was in Game 2, and the Dodgers came away with a 1-0 victory thanks to a solo homer that barely got over the fence by Adrian Gonzalez.

Now they're dogs again with the same pitching matchup.  It's Clayton Kershaw vs Kyle Hendricks.  Kershaw gets a lot of love because of his name, but Hendricks has been just as good this season.  Hendricks has been especially tough at home, going 9-3 with a 1.41 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 16 starts.

I think having a day off between Game 5 and Game 6 will do wonders for the Cubs' hitters.  They got their bats going with 18 combined runs in winning Games 4 and 5, and now they're feeling a lot more comfortable heading into this rematch with Kershaw.  And they've had some extra time for film study to adjust to what he's doing to them.

The Dodgers are 1-9 in their last 10 NLCS road games.  The Cubs are 56-23 in their last 79 home games.  Chicago is 8-2 in Hendricks' last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cubs are 10-1 in Hendricks' last 11 Saturday starts.  Roll with the Cubs in Game 6 Saturday as they close out this series.

20* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +18.5

Simply put, the No. 1 team is almost always going to be overvalued.  That's especially the case for Alabama this week because they have covered five of their seven games this season, including the last two.

The last game really stands out for public bettors.  Alabama beat Tennessee 49-10 as 13.5-point road favorites.  Well, that proved to be an awful spot for Tennessee.  The Vols were were playing the fourth straight game of a brutal four-week schedule that included narrow wins over Florida And Georgia, and a double-OT loss to Texas A&M.

Speaking of Texas A&M, this is clearly the second-best team in the SEC right now, and they are getting a whopping 18.5 points here.  And this spot couldn't be better for the Aggies.  They are coming off a bye last week following their win over Tennessee.  The two weeks to prepare for Alabama is a huge advantage that's getting overlooked in this line.

The Aggies have the type of team that can give the Crimson Tide trouble.  They have an elite defensive line that features the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall.  They also have a running quarterback in Trevor Knight, who was the QB for Oklahoma when the Sooners beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl in 2014.

Knight is leading a Texas A&M offense that is putting up 40.2 points and 532.8 yards per game against teams that only allow 30.7 points and 431 yards per game.  Knight has thrown for 1,500 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 502 yards and nine scores while averaging 7.7 yards per carry.  His ability to use his feet will keep the Alabama defense honest.

One reason the Crimson Tide are so overvalued right now is that they are getting touchdowns from everywhere, which isn't likely to continue.  They have scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns this season with eight from their defense and three on punt return TDs.  That's one more than they had all of last year.  You can bet that protecting the football has been top priority in the last two weeks of preparation for the Aggies.

Texas A&M has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It went on the road and beat Auburn 19-16 as 1.5-point underdogs while outgaining the Tigers by 79 yards.  The Aggies also went into Arlington and beat Arkansas 45-24 as 7-point favorites and outgained the Razorbacks by 100 yards.  Alabama beat Arkansas by 19 and only outgained them by 44 yards.

Plays on road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams that win at least 80% of their games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 when the total is 56.5 to 63.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +24

The Purdue Boilermakers just fired head coach Darrell Hazell after last week's 35-49 loss to Iowa.  Hazell had the least successful run of any Boilermakers coach, going 9-33 overall and 3-24 in conference play.

The interim coach will be Gerad Parker, the wide receiver's coach and recruiting coordinator.  He will be auditioning for the job for the rest of the season and has an outside shot of getting this team to a bowl after a 3-3 start.  I always like backing teams off a coaching change because it gives them new life, and I believe that will be the case here.

After all, Purdue was showing some progress the past two weeks.  After winning 34-31 at Illinois as 9-point dogs two weeks ago, the Boilermakers gave Iowa all it wanted last week in a 35-49 home loss.  The Boildermakers racked up 505 yards on the Hawkeyes and were only outgained by 15 yards for the game.

David Blough had a career game with 458 yards and five touchdowns against one interception.  Nebraska is very familiar with Blough as he led the Boilermakers to a 55-45 home win over the Huskers last season.  He threw for 274 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in that win.

Nebraska is overvalued right now after opening the season 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS through six games.  This is also a terrible spot for the Huskers.  They are coming off a big 27-22 road win at Indiana last week, and they have road games at Wisconsin and Ohio State on deck.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Huskers, and they likely won't bring the kind of focus to this game that it's going to take to beat Purdue by more than 24 points.

A couple weeks back Nebraska failed to cover as 20.5-point home favorites over Illinois in a 31-16 win.  I see this game playing out similarly, especially considering Purdue beat Illinois on the road two weeks ago.  And two years ago, Purdue lost 14-35 at Nebraska as 21.5-point dogs.  But that game was much closer than the final score as the Boilermakers actually outgained the Huskers by 43 yards.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points over the last three seasons.  It is only losing by 15.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Boilermakers are 7-0 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  Purdue is 9-1 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  It is only losing by 7.8 points per game in this spot.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +9.5

I can't help but think North Carolina is out of gas right now.  The Tar Heels haven't had a bye week, and now they'll be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  Their last four games were a 1-point win over Pitt, a 2-point win over Florida State, a 31-point loss to VA Tech and a 7-point win at Miami.

This is about as tough of a stretch as you're going to find in the ACC.  Now the Tar Heels probably feel like they have a break this week playing Virginia.  But that's not the case as Virginia is no pushover.

The Cavaliers have steadily improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  They beat Central Michigan by 14 at home and Duke by 14 on the road.  Then they had a bye week before losing to Pitt by 14 at home last week.

However, that game against Pitt was one of the most misleading final scores of the week.  The Panthers managed to score 45 points despite gaining just 346 total yards and getting outgained by 18 yards by Virginia.  The difference was a 93-yard kickoff return by Pitt in the 1st quarter and a 59-yard INT return TD with four seconds left before half.

So, Virginia went toe-to-toe with Pitt last week, which is the same Pitt team that only lost by one point to UNC on the road.  And the Panthers even blew a 13-point lead over the Tar Heels with five minutes to play.

This Virginia offense has really kicked it into high hear in its past three games.  It is averaging 38 points and 450 yards per game during this stretch.  QB Kurt Benkert has thrown for 1,733 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game.

Virginia is a sensational 12-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over this stretch.  The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight conference games, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cavaliers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home meetings.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* USF/Temple AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +6.5

The Temple Owls have outgained five of their seven opponents this season. The only exceptions were being outgained by 79 yards at Penn State and by 93 yards in their opener against Army. So, they have not been overmatched in any game they have played this season, and they certainly won’t be overmatched by South Florida at home Friday night.

I have been extremely impressed with Temple in its last two games. It lost 27-34 at Memphis as 9.5-point dogs despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and should have won, but committing three turnovers cost them in that contest. They also outgained a very good UCF team by 68 yards last week in a 26-25 road win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Owls boast an above-average offense that is averaging 32.0 points per game this season. Their defense is once again solid this season as they are holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 316.6 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.

South Florida is 6-1 this season and is overvalued right now because of its record. But like the Owls, the Bulls have outgained five of their seven opponents. They were outgained by 95 yards in a 45-20 win at Syracuse in one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I would argue that two of the past three games were misleading finals as well. They only outgained Cincinnati by 61 yards in their 45-20 road win and ECU by 80 yards in their 38-22 home win. The Bulls also haven’t beaten anyone of any significance as they have been favored in all of their wins. The only exception was the 35-55 loss to Florida State at home. Temple will clearly be the second-best team that USF has played this season.

While the Bulls have a very good offense, their defense has left a lot to be desired this season. They are giving up 25.9 points, 436.1 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Teams have really had success against them on the ground as they are allowing 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

The Owls figure to have plenty of success as well. Since getting star RB Jahad Thomas back from injury, the running game has really clicked. The Owls have rushed for at least 197 yards in three of their past four games. Thomas is coming off a 127-yard effort against UCF and should have a big day here.

Temple is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. The Owls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Friday.

20* Bears/Packers NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago +7.5

The Packers are an absolute mess right now in the injury department.  Defensively, they are down their top three cornerbacks in Sam Shields, Demarious Randall and Quinten Rollins.  Look for Brian Hoyer, who has thrown for at least 300 yards in four consecutive games, to have a big day through the air.

Offensively, the Packers are likely to be without RB Eddie Lacy after already being without James Starks.  They are so desperate right now that they even traded for Chiefs' fourth-string RB Knile Davis earlier this week.  Receiver Ty Montgomery is even expected to play some running back since they're in such dire straights.

I know the Bears are just 1-5 on the season, but they're certainly better than their record would indicate.  After beating the Lions 17-14 at home, the Bears blew a 23-19 lead over the Colts with under four minutes to play, losing 23-29.  They also blew a 13-0 lead over the Jaguars in the 4th quarter last week and lost 17-16.

The Bears actually rank 8th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 34.0 yards per game.  They are also 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 0.6 yards per play.  To compare, the Packers are 20th in yardage differential (-7.2 yards/game) and 23rd in yards per play differential (-0.3 yards/play).

Chicago ranks 7th in total offense and 4th in passing offense this season at 375.2 yards per game and 285 passing yards per contest.  Hoyer has been spreading the ball around nicely to Alshon Jeffery (29 receptions, 487 yards), Eddie Royal (29, 338) and Cameron Meredith (26, 295).  Rookie Jordan Howard has rushed for 330 yards and is averaging 5.0 per carry.

The Packers allowed 191 rushing yards to the Cowboys last week after having given up just 171 yards total in four games prior.  Dak Prescott also lit them up for 247 passing yards, three touchdowns and a 117.4 passer rating last week despite playing without Dez Bryant.  Hoyer and Howard are likely to have plenty of success here as well.  The Bears have outgained their last three opponents by a combined 343 yards.

The road team won both meetings last season.  The Bears won 17-13 as 7.5-point road underdogs at Lambeau Field.  And even in their 31-23 loss to open the season to the Packers last year, the Bears outgained them 402 to 322 for the game, or by 80 total yards.  Despite being 1-5 on the season, this is a rivalry game that the Bears will clearly show up for it looking to win.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 86-41 (67.7%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against home teams (GREEN BAY) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Green Bay is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team that is outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Packers have played three home games this season and have yet to win by more than a touchdown.  Bet the Bears Thursday.

15* Cubs/Dodgers NLCS Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago -151

The Chicago Cubs busted out of their hitting slump in a big way with 10 runs in Game 3.  But they know with Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill coming up for Game 6 and Game 7 that Game 5 is a must-win.  They likely won't be able to beat both Kershaw and Hill.

They can certainly beat Kenta Maeda, who has gone 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA and 2.585 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has given up 12 earned runs and 25 base runners over 9 2/3 innings over that span, with two of those starts coming in the playoffs.

Jon Lester is the ace of Chicago's staff, going 20-5 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 34 starts this season.  Lester has been dominant in two postseason starts, going 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA while allowing only one earned run over 14 innings.  He has now given up just 2 earned runs over 21 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers for a 0.86 ERA, all of which have come this season.

Lester is 18-2 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.  Lester is 22-3 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are 0-4 in Maeda's last four starts.  Roll with the Cubs Thursday.

25* CFB Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -4

The Virginia Tech Hokies aren’t getting any love from oddsmakers after their 17-31 upset loss to Syracuse as 23-point favorite last week. But I was on Syracuse in that game knowing that it would be a flat spot for the Hokies after beating UNC on the road the week before, and having Miami on deck Thursday. So I’m willing to throw out that effort.

There’s no doubt the Hokies will be up for this game after that awful loss. First place in the Coastal Division is on the line, and Lane Stadium is going to be rocking. This is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and with what’s at stake, the Hokies will be ready for it.

It’s clear to me that Virginia Tech is for real. That Syracuse game was the first time it had been outgained all season. Don’t forget that VA Tech outgained Tennessee by 70 yards, but gave that game away by committing five turnovers. What proceeded was three straight blowout victories over Boston College (49-0), ECU (54-17) and at UNC (34-3).

That gives these teams a common opponent in UNC, which beat Miami on the road 20-13 last week. It was the second straight loss for the Hurricanes. They were outgained by the Tar Heels by 100 yards after getting outgained by 131 yards by Florida State in a 19-20 home loss the week before. Not to mention, the game before that Miami beat Georgia Tech 35-21, but was actually outgained in that contest and benefited from a bye week and two defensive touchdowns.

It’s clear to me that Miami has problems on offense that simply aren’t fixable. The offense managed just 355 yards against Georgia Tech and 21 points. They were held to 19 points and 276 total yards against Florida State. They were also limited to only 13 points and 363 total yards against a very bad North Carolina defense.

The Hokies have certainly taken care of business at home this season. They are 3-0 at home, putting up 46.3 points per game and giving up only 10.0 points, outscoring opponents by a whopping 36.3 points per game. Beating Boston College by 49 and East Carolina by 37 were certainly no small feats.

And Miami’s offense is likely to struggle again this week as it goes up against a VA Tech defense that is giving up just 18.2 points per game, 291 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Coordinator Bud Foster’s unit is holding opponents to 7.1 points, 104 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

And this VA Tech offense is vastly improved this season under the guidance of head coach Justin Fuente, who worked wonders at Memphis before coming here. The Hokies are putting up 35.7 points per game this season. QB Jerod Evans has been an absolute stud, completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,352 yards with 17 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 319 yards and two scores.

Brad Kaaya hasn’t fared well against the better competition like he will face Thursday. He completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 214 yards against Florida State, and 51.6 percent for 224 yards against North Carolina. He has thrown only two touchdowns against one interception in his last two games.

The Hokies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games. Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Finally, I expect the Hokies to also be motivated from back-to-back losses to the Hurricanes the past two seasons. This is the best team that VA Tech has had in a while and one that’s on a mission to get back to the ACC Title game for the first time since 2011.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

20* Cubs/Dodgers NLCS Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -104

It's pretty much now or never for the Chicago Cubs, who can't afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series.  And they have their best chance to get their bats going now after being shut out by Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill the past two games, who are far and away the Dodgers' two best starters.

Now I expect the Cubs to tee off on Julio Urias, who is the youngest starter in MLB postseason history.  I don't expect him to be able to handle this pressure situation very well.  Urias is only averaging 4.6 innings per start over 15 starts this season, so expect the Cubs to get into the bullpen early.

John Lackey certainly won't be phased by this big-game situation.  Lackey has gone 11-8 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He has owned the Dodgers throughout his career, going 7-3 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.928 WHIP in 12 starts against them.  Urias faced the Cubs twice this season, giving up 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 11 innings of work.

The Cubs are 18-3 (+14.1 Units) against the money line after scoring 1 run or less this season.  Chicago is 19-6 in its last 25 games following a loss.  The Cubs are 4-0 in Lackey's last four starts.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* Cubs/Dodgers NLCS Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -113

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 4-0 in games in which Clayton Kershaw has pitched, and 0-3 in the ones he has not.  Well, without Kershaw on the mound, I look for the Cubs to take Game 3 and re-gain home-field advantage in this series.

Jake Arrieta is 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  He is certainly the definition of a big-game pitcher, time and time again coming through for the Cubs.  Arrieta has posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four career starts against the Dodgers.

In his last two starts against LA, Arrieta has pitched 16 shutout innings while allowing only seven base runners and striking out 20 batters.  Rich Hill has really struggled down the stretch for the Dodgers.  He is 0-3 with a 4.84 ERA in his last five starts, giving up 12 earned runs over 22 1/3 innings.

Arrieta is 14-1 (+12.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 19-2 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* Jets/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47

The biggest reason I like the UNDER in this game is the coaching matchup. Todd Bowles is the former defensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals. He knows what Bruce Arians likes to run, and Arians knows how Bowles likes to attack with his defenses. I think the familiarity of one another’s schemes is going to lead to a low-scoring affair.

Plus, both teams are playing with their backs against the wall with Arizona at 2-3 and New York at 1-4, and they're looking at this as a must-win game. I think that will bring out the best in the defenses as both offenses come with a more conservative approach than normal, trying not to make a big mistake in this pressure-packed game.

I know that’s the case for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw threw nine interceptions over a two-game span before last week’s 13-31 loss to the Steelers. Fitzpatrick did a much better job of protecting the ball against the Steelers as he didn’t throw an interception, but he also took the check down a lot more than normal.

He will continue that approach this week, especially now that he’s without his security blanket in Eric Decker for the rest of the season. Not to mention, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is questionable with an ankle injury, and center Nick Mangold is questionable with a knee injury that forced him to leave last game.

Don’t expect Carson Palmer to come out guns-a-blazing for the Cardinals, either. He didn’t play last week because of a concussion, and the Cardinals are going to try and protect him in his first game back. Palmer also will take a more conservative approach himself as he has thrown five interceptions against six touchdowns in four games of action.

The Cardinals had success with their running game last week and will lean on David Johnson even more going forward after he rushed for 157 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers last week. The same can be said for the Jets, who will look to get Matt Forte more involved in the running game, because that’s what worked for them for the first two weeks of the season, and they kind of got away from it the last few weeks.

Both of these defenses are top-notch. I know the Jets have given up their fair share of points this season, but a lot of that has had to do with the poor positions that they have been put in due to Fitzpatrick’s turnovers. I have no doubt that this is still one of the best defenses in the NFL, but a brutal schedule thus far hasn’t allowed that to show as much.

The Cardinals are just as good as they have been in the past under Bowles, and even last year. They are giving up just 20.2 points, 308 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. They rank 8th in the NFL in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. Now they’ll be up against a Jets’ offense that has managed just 11.0 points per game the last three weeks.

It’s not like the Cardinals are lighting it up on offense this year, either. They have been held to 21 or fewer points in three of their five games this season. The only exceptions were Tampa Bay and San Francisco, who committed a combined eight turnovers and set the Cardinals up with many easy scoring opportunities.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Jets last six road games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cardinals last five Monday games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cardinals last seven home games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Jets last eight Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Indians/Blue Jays ALCS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -172

The Toronto Blue Jays are in must-win mode now down 0-2 in this series.  They return home today and I believe they have a very good chance of winning Game 3, which is why I'm willing to lay this kind of juice.  They have a massive edge on the mound in this one.

Trevor Bauer is one of Cleveland's worst starters.  He is 10-8 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in 29 starts this season, and 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts.  Bauer certainly doesn't enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with an 8.57 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in three career starts, which have all come over the past two seasons.

Marcus Stroman has been the Blue Jays' ace in the postseason over the past few years.  He is 1-0 with a 3.91 ERA in four career postseason starts.  He only allowed two earned runs and four base runners over six innings of a 5-2 win over the Orioles in his only postseason start this season.  Stroman is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against Cleveland, both of which have come this season.  He has given up only two earned runs in 14 innings with 15 strikeouts.

Toronto is 21-7 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after scoring three runs or less two straight games this season.  The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six playoff home games.  Toronto is 6-2 in Stroman's last eight home starts.  Bet the Blue Jays in Game 3 Monday.

15* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS Game 2 No-Brainer on Chicago +119

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Cubs as underdogs, especially at home.  But that's the opportunity in front of us Sunday and we'll take advantage.  They have all the momentum after winning 8-3 last night by breaking a 3-3 tie in the 8th inning with five runs, including a grand slam.

The reason the Cubs are dogs is because the Dodgers are taking a huge chance and starting Clayton Kershaw on short rest.  He'll be taking the ball for the fourth time in seven games this postseason, and he has to be running on fumes right now.  He pitched three nights ago to get the save in the NLDS Game 5 win over the Nationals after starting Game 4.

But Kyle Hendricks has been every bit as good as Kershaw this season, and he's on full rest.  Hendricks is 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 9-2 with a 1.39 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Hendricks is also 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in three career starts against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 0-9 in their last nine League Championship road games.  The Cubs are 7-1 in Hendricks' last eight starts.  Chicago is 26-10 in Hendricks' last 36 home starts.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

25* NFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -4

The Green Bay Packers simply do not lose at home. In their last 17 home games, the Packers have outscored opponents 335 to 106 in the first half of games. They have averaged leading by 13.5 points per game at half to put teams away early, and that’s what I expect them to do with the Cowboys this week.

Both home games the Packers played this season were bigger blowouts than the final score showed. The Packers led the Lions 31-10 at half before coasting to a 34-27 victory. They also led the Giants 17-6 at half and 23-9 late in the 4th quarter before the Giants tacked on a garbage touchdown late to make it 23-16.

That game against the Giants was certainly a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They Packers outgained the Giants 406 to 219 for the game, or by 187 total yards. Unfortunately, they settled for three field goals and Aaron Rodgers threw two uncharacteristic interceptions.

That’s the same Giants team that the Cowboys lost 20-19 at home to in the opener for a common opponent. The Cowboys have beaten four lackluster teams since in the Redskins, Bears, 49ers and Bengals. Those four teams are a combined 7-13 on the season. The only team the Packers have lost to was the Vikings 14-17 on the road, and that’s the same Vikings team that is the only unbeaten squad left at 5-0.

I simply believe that the Cowboys are way overvalued right now due going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games. They should be closer to touchdown underdogs, just like the Giants were against the Packers last week. So I believe we are getting a discount here with the Packers -4.

The Cowboys are still missing several key players with Dez Bryant, Orlando Scandrick and La’el Collins not expected to play. I think those injuries are going to catch up to them sooner rather than later. The Packers have both Eddy Lacy and Sam Shields questionable, but Randall Cobb is expected to play as he’s listed as probable.  And James Starks is a proven backup who actually adds a dimension in the passing game if Lacy isn't able to go.

The Packers have certainly had the Cowboys’ number in recent years. Indeed, they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Cowboys. They won 28-7 at home last season as only 6-point favorites. They outgained the Cowboys 435 to 270 in that contest, or by 165 total yards.

This is a great matchup for the Packers. They lead the NFL in run defense, giving up a mere 43 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry. The Cowboys lead the NFL in rushing at 155 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. Ezekiel Elliott is up against the toughest defense he has faced yet this week and will get shut down.

Dak Prescott miraculously hasn't thrown an interception this season, but there's no way that streak continues for much longer.  It will likely end this week as the Cowboys will finally have to play catch-up.  They have relied on their running game to this point, but once the Packers stop that and get a big lead early, Prescott will be in an unfamiliar and uncomfortable position.

The Cowboys have a terrible defense that gives up 356 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  This defense has been masked to this point because the Cowboys are controlling the ball for nearly 34 minutes per game, while the defense is only on the field for 26 minutes per contest.  They won't be able to control the time of possession this week because their running game will get stuffed, and their defense will be exposed against Aaron Rodgers and company.

Green Bay is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games. The Packers are 9-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City -1

The Kansas City Chiefs have been steaming mad over the past two weeks following their 14-43 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  There's no question they have been dialed in and focused on their bye week, and I expect them to play their best game of the season here against the Oakland Raiders.

The Broncos lost this week to fall to 4-2, while the Raiders are 4-1.  So the Chiefs, at 2-2, are looking at this as a must-win game to get right back in the AFC West race.  And coming off their bye, this couldn't be a better situation for them.

Andy Reid is the best coach in the NFL coming off a bye.  In fact, his teams have gone 19-3 straight up off a bye, including playoffs, in all games he has coached.  He'll have the Chiefs ready to go this week.

The bye helped get Jamaal Charles healthy.  He is expected to play a much bigger role this week after only playing a few snaps against the Steelers in his return.  The Chiefs didn't feel it necessary to keep him in that blowout loss.  But now the Chiefs' offense is going to be much better going forward with him back.

Oakland is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL.  The Raiders are 4-1 this season, but all four wins came in the closing seconds, and they could be 1-4 just as easily as 4-1.  The numbers really show that the Raiders aren't that good of a football team.

The Raiders have actually been outgained in all five games this season.  They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 61 yards per game.  Their defense is last in the NFL in allowing 452.6 yards per game, which is their biggest problem.  They are giving up a ridiculous 7.0 yards per play, while the Chiefs are only allowing 5.7 per play.

Kansas City has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series.  They held Oakland to an average of 18.5 points and 283 yards per game in two meetings last season.  The Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Oakland.  The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games and don't have much of a home-field advantage at all.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are 1-4 this season and in desperate need of a win.  They trail the Atlanta Falcons, who are 4-1, by three games in the division.  It's safe to say that they are looking at this game against New Orleans as a must-win and will be putting their best foot forward.

The Panthers are expected to get two key pieces back this week.  Both Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart are expected to return to the lineup.  Getting both those guys back will have this offense hitting on all cylinders once again.

Carolina might be the best 1-4 team in the history of the NFL.  The Panthers actually rank 6th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 50.8 yards per game.  Only the Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens, Falcons and Cardinals have been better.

The problem for the Panthers has been turnovers.  They have committed 14 turnovers in five games after finishing +20 in turnover differential last season.  They committed lost the turnover battle 4-0 to the Bucs last week, yet still should have won and only lost 14-17.  Keep in mind that neither Newton nor Stewart played last week.

The Saints should be 0-4.  Their only win came 35-34 at San Diego before their bye last week, and they trailed in that game by 13 points with four minutes to go.  But the Chargers gift-wrapped the win by fumbling on the 1st play of their final two drives late in the 4th.  The Saints only managed 275 total yards against the Chargers and there's no way they should have scored 34 points.

New Orleans ranks 25th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 36.8 yards per game.  Not even a bye week can save their defense, which is giving up 32.5 points and 422.7 yards per game.  Look for Newton and company to light up their defense as well, and for the Panthers' defense too get back to how it was playing last year. The Panthers still have an elite defense as they've given up 315 or fewer yards in four of their five games this season.

The Panthers are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Saints.  They are averaging 475 yards per game and giving up only 341 yards per game in those three contests, outgaining the Saints by 134 yards per game on average.

New Orleans is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  Carolina is 61-30 ATS in its last 91 games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game.  The Saints are 4-10-1 ATS int heir last 15 home games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.

Plays on road teams (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Panthers are way undervalued right now due to their 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS start.  They should be closer to touchdown favorites here because they are nowhere near as bad as their record.  This is still one of the best teams in the NFL and they will prove that this week.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +7

The Tennessee Titans have no business being a 7-point favorite against anyone in the NFL.  But they are way overvalued now because they beat Miami 30-17 on the road last week.  Miami might be the worst team in the NFL.

Cleveland has had a chance to win three of its five games this season and really should be 2-3 at the worst.  It blew a 20-2 lead against Baltimore and lost 20-25, it missed a field goal at the end of regulation and lost 24-30 at Miami, and it turned the ball over three times late and blew a 20-17 fourth quarter lead against the Redskins and lost 20-31.

Sure, the Browns were overmatched in losses to Philadelphia and New England, but those are two of the very best teams in the NFL.  Plus, they had their starting QB get hurt and forced out of action midway through both of those games.  They even had to play Charlie Whitehurst early in their loss to the Patriots last week.

But now Cody Kessler is back this week and healthy.  Hhe has actually played very well in three games this season, completing 66.7 ppercent of his passes for 529 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  And the Browns can rely on their running game, which is producing 125 yards per game and 5.0 per carry against teams that only allow 103 yards per game and 4.1 per carry.

Stopping the run will be key for the Browns this week as Tennessee averages 149 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  Well, the Browns only give up 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Titans surrender 4.2 per carry.  I actually give the edge on the ground to the Browns in this game when you look at the numbers.

Most NFL teams are better at home, but that's not the case for the Titans.  Since the beginning of the 2014 season, the Titans are 2-16 straight up at home with both wins coming against the Jaguars.  That's why they should not be 7-point favorites here.

The Browns are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Titans are 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 home games and 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win.  Tennessee is 3-13 ATS in home games over the last three seasons and 0-8 ATS following one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* Eagles/Redskins NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -2.5

While most people don't believe that the Philadelphia Eagles are for real, I certainly do.  It's hard to argue with the numbers, and the numbers show that they are among the elite during their 3-1 start.

Indeed, the Eagles rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 97.0 yards per game.  Carson Wentz looks great as he'd leading the Eagles to 28.7 points and 363.7 yards per game.  But the defense is underrated, giving up just 12.7 points and 266.7 yards per game.

The Steelers are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Eagles throttled them 34-3.  And in their only loss this season, the Eagles fought back to take a late lead against the Lions last week, but lost 23-24.

But there's no way they should have lost that game to the Lions as they outgained them by 102 yards.  However, I think the loss will work in their favor because it will keep them grounded and focused to bounce back with a victory this week against the Redskins.

Washington could easily be 0-5 instead of 3-2.  But because the Redskins are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, they are way overvalued right now.  It's time to fade them, and I agree with this huge line move that had the Redskins open as favorites, and now the Eagles are nearly favored by a field goal.

The Redskins were outgained by 54 yards by the Giants in their 29-27 win.  They were outgained by 79 yards by the lowly Browns in their 31-20 win.  They trailed that game 20-17 in the 4th quarter before the Browns turned the ball over on three straight possessions to gift-wrap the win.  And the Ravens fumbled going into the end zone for a touchback, and had a last-second TD called back in their 10-16 loss to the Redskins last week.

Washington ranks 21st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 26 yards per game.  The Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the league.  They are giving up 24.4 points and 391.6 yards per game on the season and won't be able to slow down Wentz and company in this one.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road loss, after the first month of the season are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

15* Ohio State/Wisconsin Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -10.5

I actually think not covering at Indiana last week has kept this line lower than it should be. I had Indiana +28 last week and cashed it in against Ohio State. But I’m getting back on the Buckeyes this week as only 10.5-point favorites against the Badgers.

I believe Wisconsin is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Wins over both Michigan State and LSU don’t look nearly as good now as they did a few weeks ago. And don’t forget, the Badgers barely beat lowly Georgia State 23-17 at home as 35.5-point favorites.

I also think this line is lower than it should be because Wisconsin only lost 7-14 at Michigan. However, that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Wolverines outgained the Badgers by 190 total yards and held them to just 159 yards of total offense. The Wolverines also had to settle for three field goals, and missed all of them.  Just like the Badgers were outclassed by Michigan, they will be outclassed by Ohio State this week.

Ohio State is legitimately one of the top three teams in the country, if not the best. It boasts a high-powered offense that is putting up 53.2 points and 537.6 yards per game. Wisconsin, which is only averaging 26.0 points and 360.2 yards per game, doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.

Even more impressive has been an Ohio State defense led by Greg Schiano that has been absolutely suffocating. The Buckeyes have only given up 10.8 points, 246.6 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play against opponents that average 28.6 points, 422 yards per game and 5.5 per play. So, the Buckeyes are holding opponents to 18 points, 175 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play less than their season averages.

Ohio State has won four straight and seven of its last eight meetings with Wisconsin. The latest was a 59-0 victory in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2014. The Buckeyes outgained the Badgers 558 to 258 in that contest. I can foresee a similar yardage differential in this game and another blowout victory in the Buckeyes’ favor.

The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 22.0 points per game on average. They beat Oklahoma by 21 on the road a few weeks back, and Oklahoma is far better than Wisconsin.

Ohio State has won 19 straight true road games, a school record and the longest active streak in the country.  They always seem to step up in hostile environments, especially under Urban Meyer.  The Buckeyes are 41-16-1 ATS in their last 58 road games.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be hungry for their first conference victory. Unfortunately for them, they have ran into arguably the two best teams in the conference already in Texas A&M and Alabama. Not to mention, they beat TCU on the road, so they have certainly been battle-tested in the early going.

And their 24-45 road loss to Texas A&M wasn’t as big of a blowout as the final score indicated. It was tied at halftime before the Razorbacks lost 28-7 in the second half. They uncharacteristically could not punch it in in the red zone, which was their downfall.

Arkansas’ 30-49 loss to Alabama last week was also not the blowout that it may have seemed. The Razorbacks were only outgained by the Crimson Tide by 44 yards. However, they committed five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. One was a 100-yard pick-six that was a 14-point swing and the difference in the game.

Austin Allen is the best pocket passer in the SEC. He actually threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns on that great Alabama defense, though his three interceptions were certainly costly. Allen is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,632 yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season.

I believe Ole Miss comes in overvalued for a number of reasons. First, it is coming off a bye week, so that has clearly been factored into the line. And secondly, the Rebels have covered the spread in three straight games, while the Razorbacks have failed to cover in three straight. That has created artificial inflation of this line.

Ole Miss has yet to play a true road game this season. And Fayetteville is no easy place to play. Look for Razorback Stadium to be alive and well Saturday night with this game scheduled to be on ESPN. The home crowd will certainly benefit the Razorbacks here.

Arkansas has had Ole Miss’ number the past two seasons. The Razorbacks won 30-0 at home in 2014 and 53-52 on the road in overtime last year. The Razorbacks are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings as they have been the underdogs in all three. Oddsmakers are once again undervaluing them as not only dogs here, but over a touchdown home dogs at that. Arkansas was a 7.5-point road dog at Ole Miss last year to compare, so there’s no way it should be the same line at home this time around.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS) – after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 28-6 (82.4%) since 1992.

Arkansas is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Razorbacks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Fayetteville.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +21.5

This is a really bad spot for the Houston Cougars.  They are coming off a 40-46 road loss at Navy that crushed their dreams of making the four-team playoff.  I fully expect them to come out flat this week because of it, and for Tulsa to make a game out of this.

Former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery is doing a great job at Tulsa.  He took them to a bowl game in his first season last year, and now he has them off to a 4-1 start this season.  They are fully capable of playing with Houston.

The only loss Tulsa suffered this year came at Ohio State.  But that was a 6-3 game late in the 2nd quarter before turnovers did them in.  They committed six turnovers in all, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in a span of minutes that turned a close game into a blowout.

The fact that Tulsa hasn't covered the last two weeks has it undervalued here, and this line is bigger than it should be because of it.  The Golden Hurricane needed OT to beat Fresno State on the road despite outgaining them by 164 yards.  They also needed OT to beat SMU at home last week despite outgaining them by 150 yards.  I also can't help but think Tulsa was looking ahead to this game against Houston and not focusing on SMU.

The Golden Hurricane are putting up some very impressive numbers this season.  Their offense is dynamite once again in averaging 39.4 points and 474 yards per game.  However, the improvement on defense has been remarkable from last year.  They are giving up 387 yards per game on the season, and they held Ohio State's high-powered offense to just 415 total yards.

Tulsa has played Houston tough each of the last two years.  They only lost by 14 at home last year, and they lost by 10 on the road as 20-point underdogs in 2014.  This game will be decided by a similar margin most likely, and definitely less than three touchdowns.  The Golden Hurricane have been a great bet away from home as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Plays on road underdogs (TULSA) - after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams who are winning 80% or more of their games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

15* Blue Jays/Indians ALCS Game 2 No-Doubt Rout on Toronto -130

After losing Game 1 2-0, I look for the Toronto Blue Jays to bounce back in Game 2 with a victory.  They have the decided edge on the mound in this contest, unlike Game 1 where they went up against ace Corey Kluber.

But now they get to face Josh Tomlin, who is 14-9 with a 4.40 ERA in 30 starts, and 5-5 with a 4.56 ERA in 14 home starts.  Tomlin is 1-1 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in five career starts against Toronto.  He gave up 6 earned runs and 3 homers over 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Blue Jays on August 20th this season.

J.A. Happ is 21-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 33 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts.  Happ has also had plenty of success against the Indians, going 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against them.  He gave up just 1 earned run and 5 hits over 7 innings while striking out 11 in his last start against them on July 3rd of this season.

Happ is 14-2 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in day games this season.  Happ is 15-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Blue Jays are 10-1 in Happ's last 11 road starts.  Roll with the Blue Jays in Game 2 Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +20

The Virginia Tech Hokies are way overvalued right now.  I was on them in their 34-3 win at North Carolina last week, but I'm going to fade them this week with the realization that the markets have caught up to them now.  The Hokies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and now it's time to fade them.

Their last two games weren't nearly the blowouts that the final scores showed.  They beat East Carolina 54-17 but only outgained them by 19 yards.  And they managed to score 34 points on North Carolina last week despite gaining just 264 total yards on offense.  They simply took advantage of four UNC turnovers and several short fields in the sloppy conditions created by Hurricane Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew also played a role in Syracuse's game last week.  The Orange lost 28-9 on the road to Wake Forest.  Well, that was an awful matchup because the Orange could not run their spread attack in the slop.  And that was a 14-9 game until late in the fourth quarter when Wake Forest got two touchdowns, including a defensive score, to make the final look like a bigger blowout than it really was.  Wake Forest only outgained Syracuse by 4 yards.

The Orange are certainly battle-tested as they've played some great teams already in Louisville, South Florida and Notre Dame.  They only lost by 17 to Notre Dame on a neutral field, and their 20-45 loss to South Florida was way misleading.  The Orange actually outgained the Bulls by 95 yards in that game, but gave it away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.

Playing in perfect conditions in the Carrier Dome, look for head coach Dino Babers to have his offense firing on ally cylinders.  The Orange put up 28 points on Louisville and 33 on Notre Dame earlier this season.  Eric Dungey is having a great year at QB, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,886 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 129 yards and five scores.

This is kind of a sandwich game for the Hokies, who may not have all of their focus on Syracuse.  They are coming off that big win against UNC last week on the road, and they play Miami this coming Thursday on a short week.  They could be saving something for that game.  Meanwhile, Syracuse will be up for this game in a big way with a nationally ranked opponent coming to the Carrier Dome.

I'm just not sure VA Tech has the firepower on offense to cover this big of a number, either.  The Hokies are averaging 412 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 395 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So, they have been an average offense at best this season in terms of moving the football consistently.

The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  VA Tech is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Alabama/Tennessee CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Tennessee +13

For starters, the Game of the Year line in Vegas released before the season was Tennessee -1. Now it’s Alabama -13. That’s a ridiculous 14-point swing and the reason I believe there’s value with the Volunteers as home underdogs here.

Coming into the season, Alabama was expected to win the SEC West, while Tennessee was expected to win the SEC East. Nothing has changed as Alabama is 6-0 and taking care of business, while Tennessee is 5-1 with its only loss coming on the road in overtime against Texas A&M.

And I would argue that Tennessee outplayed Texas A&M last week and should have won. The Vols actually outgained the Aggies by 92 yards and racked up a whopping 684 yards of total offense. You won’t find many teams that lose with 600-plus yards, but the Vols shot themselves in the foot with seven turnovers.

Alabama beat Arkansas 49-30 on the road last week, but that game was closer than the final score. The Crimson Tide only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards. They forced five turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns, which proved to be the difference. In fact, the Crimson Tide have benefited from non-offensive touchdowns all season.

Tennessee ended an 11-game losing streak to Florida a few weeks back with a 38-28 victory. Now it will be motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to Alabama, and this will be its best opportunity yet as this is the best team Tennessee has had in quite some time.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Tennessee had Alabama on the ropes last year and let them off the hook. The Vols had a 14-13 lead late until the Crimson Tide scored with 2:24 remaining to win 19-14. The Vols were 14.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they’re 13-point home dogs in the rematch. That fact alone shows you there is value here as well.

I realize that this is the 4th game of a brutal 4-game schedule for Tennessee, but it seems to be getting better and that level of competition is only going to help them go up against a team like Alabama.  Plus, Tennessee has a bye next week, so it can put all of its eggs into one basket this week.  The Vols will put their best foot forward this week and worry about resting on their bye next week.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 156-90 (63.4%) ATS since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.

The Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They have stepped up in their biggest games this season, beating VA Tech, Florida and Georgia, and covering as 8-point road dogs at Texas A&M in a game they should have won.  They will show up at home here and give the Crimson Tide all they can handle and possibly pull off the upset.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* Blue Jays/Indians ALCS Game 1 No-Brainer on Toronto +131

The Toronto Blue Jays have turned it on down the stretch.  They have won each of their last six games, and they really got their offense going against the Rangers last series.  They outscored the Rangers 22-10 in their three-game sweep.

Marco Estrada is one of the most underrated starters in the league.  He has gone 10-9 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 30 starts, 7-2 with a 3.19 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in 15 road starts, and 1-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in his last three outings.  Estrada is also 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two career starts against Cleveland, and the Blue Jays are 2-0 in those games.

Corey Kluber is the ace of the Indians' staff, but he has been no better than Estrada this season.  Kluber is 19-9 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 33 starts and 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 17 home starts.

However, Kluber does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He gave up 7 runs and 21 base runners over 10 innings in two starts against Toronto in 2016.  Take the Blue Jays Friday.

20* Duke/Louisville ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +35

The Louisville Cardinals are getting mad respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now. This game actually opened with Louisville -27.5 at BetOnline, but has already steamed up to -35, a massive 7.5-point move. I believe the value is with the Blue Devils because of it.

One performance from Duke really stands out to me this season that shows it is capable of going into Louisville and competing with the Cardinals. Duke went into Notre Dame and won 38-35 as 19.5-point underdogs a few weeks back. The Blue Devils put up 498 total yards against the Fighting Irish and were only outgained by 36 yards in the win.

I know that Louisville has had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, but I can’t help but think there is still going to be a hangover effect from the 36-42 loss to Clemson. That loss could keep Louisville out of the four-team playoff, and it’s certainly likely to keep them out of the ACC Championship Game as Clemson would have to lose two more times for them to even have a chance.

Duke will be the best team that Louisville has faced outside of Florida State and Clemson. Marshall lost by 31 to Louisville, Syracuse lost by 34 and Charlotte lost by 56. If both Marshall, with a backup QB, and Syracuse can stay within 35 of Louisville, I have no doubt that Duke can as well.

The Blue Devils actually have a very good defense that is giving up only 21.5 points, 345 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. I also like what I’ve seen from QB Daniel Jones, who is completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,455 yards with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season. He has also rushed for 179 yards and three scores.  His 132 completions leads all freshmen nationally and his 1,634 total yards ranks second.

David Cutcliffe is 13-2 ATS in games played on Turf as the coach of Duke. Bobby Petrino is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams who allow 7.5 or fewer yards per return as the coach of Louisville. The Blue Devils are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Duke is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. I believe that bye week has them way overvalued here.  Bet Duke Friday.

20* Broncos/Chargers AFC West No-Brainer on San Diego +3

The Chargers have been the most hard-luck team of anyone in the NFL this season. They could easily be 4-1 instead of 1-4 because they have actually held the lead in the 4th quarter in all but one game they’ve played.

In fact, they have held the lead for more minutes through five games than any other team in the NFL.  They simply haven’t gotten it done in the last few minutes, but they aren’t likely to have this bad of luck going forward.

The Chargers blew a 24-3 lead against the Chiefs in Week 1 and lost in overtime. They came back and throttled the Jaguars 38-14 in Week 2. They lost 22-26 at Indianapolis in Week 3 after holding a 22-20 lead with under two minutes to go. They blew a 13-point lead with under four minutes to go and lost 34-35 to the Saints after fumbling on back-to-back possessions in their own territory. And last week they botched a late field goal that would have tied it in a 31-34 loss at Oakland.

Despite their 1-4 record, the Chargers are actually outscoring teams by an average of 2.0 points per game on the season. Their offense is getting the job done with 30.4 points per game and 374.0 yards per game. Philip Rivers continues to play at a high level as he is completing 68% of his passes for 1,469 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.

I believe the Denver Broncos are one of the more overrated teams in the NFL at this point in the season. That’s because they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS on the year. But their four wins have all come against teams with losing records who have gone a combined 7-13 on the season.

This 3-point line indicates that the Broncos would be 6-point favorites on a neutral field, and I simply believe that is too much. Especially when you consider all four of San Diego’s losses have come by 4 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.

The clear weakness of the Chargers has been their pass defense. However, the Broncos are a run-first team and that won’t come into play as much this week. The Chargers have actually been stout against the run, giving up just 83 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. They rank 8th in the NFL in run defense. The Broncos rank just 25th in the NFL in passing offense at 225.8 yards per game.

With the Broncos in first place in the AFC West, this is do or die for the Chargers.  They simply have to win this game to have any chance of catching the Broncos and Raiders in the division.  You can expect Rivers and company to be putting their best foot forward because of it, especially against a division rival.

San Diego is 6-0 ATS off a division loss over the last two seasons. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC West opponents. San Diego is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. AFC teams.

Plays on home underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) – after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a terrible team (winning 25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 125-68 (64.8%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Chargers Thursday.

15* Dodgers/Nationals NLDS Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Washington -144

The Dodgers gambled and used Clayton Kershaw in Game 4.  While Kershaw didn't factor into the decision, the Dodgers still got the job done and forced a Game 5.  Well, now they don't have their ace for this contest.

That leaves the Nationals with a huge advantage here because they start their ace in Max Scherzer.  He has gone 20-8 with a 3.03 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 35 starts, including 8-4 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 16 home starts.

Scherzer gave up 4 runs in 6 innings in Game 1, but only allowed five base runners, so he was just hurt by the long ball.  Rich Hill gave up 4 runs and 8 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 2-5 loss in Game 2.  He had much more trouble than Scherzer did getting consistent outs.

The Nationals are 51-32 at home this season, while the Dodgers are 39-44 on the road.  The Dodgers are 0-4 in Hill's last four starts.  The Nationals are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss.  Washington is 19-7 in Scherzer's last 26 starts.  Take the Nationals in Game 5 Thursday.

20* App State/LA-Lafayette Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -10

The Appalachian State Mountaineers are one of better football teams for a small school that not too many people know about. They have absolutely flown under the radar the past two seasons, including during their 11-win campaign from last year. They returned 15 starters from that squad and are just as good in 2016.

Appalachian State proved that in Week 1 when it nearly upset Tennessee in a 13-20 (OT) loss as 21.5-point road underdogs. While the Mountaineers didn’t fare as well against Miami a couple weeks later, the fact that they have played both Tennessee and Miami has prepared them for the Sun Belt conference season.  They won't play anyone close to as good as those two teams the rest of the way.

The other three teams they played they pretty much rolled. They beat Old Dominion 31-7 as 21-point favorites, Akron 45-38 as 4.5-point road favorites, and Georgia State 17-3 as 18.5-point home favorites. And they had a 21-point lead against Akron in the second half as that final score was misleading.

Louisiana-Lafayette’s best opponent faced so far was Boise State, which they lost 10-45 to at home and were outgained by 317 yards. They have also lost to both Tulane and New Mexico State. Their only two wins have come against FCS foe McNeese State by a final of 30-22 at home and South Alabama 28-23 at home.

Despite playing a much softer schedule than the Mountaineers, LA-Lafayette has done nothing that would be considered impressive thus far. And now they have to take a step up in competition here and won’t be ready for it. They certainly weren’t ready for the Mountaineers the past two seasons.

Indeed, Appalachian State has rolled LA-Lafayette each of the last two years. The Mountaineers won 35-16 on the road in 2014 as 8-point dogs while outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns by 158 yards. They also won 28-7 at home last year as 22-point favorites while outgaining them by 156 yards.

Appalachian State once again has a dominant defense this season with nine starters back from last year. That defense has held Lafayette to a combined 23 points the past two seasons and an average of just 252.5 yards per game. The Mountaineers are holding opponents to 10.6 points per game less than their season averages, giving up just 22.6 points per game.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) – a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in conference games are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mountaineers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Appalachian State Wednesday.