15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +14

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They are coming off their bye week and these bye weeks are usually more effective for teams with first-year head coaches like Arizona.  The Cardinals continue to show up every week and have been competitive in three of their last four games, including outright upsets over Atlanta at home and Pittsburgh on the road since getting Kyler Murray back.  They also only lost by 5 at Houston as 5.5-point dogs, going 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Their only blowout loss came to the Rams, a team that has owned them since Sean McVay took over.

This is a terrible spot for the San Francisco 49ers.  They have won five consecutive games since their bye week with the last three coming against the Seahawks (twice) and Eagles.  After playing two division games and getting their revenge on the Eagles, this is the 'exhale' game for the 49ers.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory in Arizona.  They won't be worrying about getting margin.  Plus, they have another massive game against Baltimore on deck, so that makes this a sandwich spot for them.

We saw the Seahawks cover against the 49ers last week after getting blown out by them in the first meeting.  I think we see the same thing here.  Arizona lost 35-16 in San Francisco as 15-point underdogs in that first meeting this season.  But that game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate.  The 49ers only outgained the Cardinals by 33 yards in that game.  Josh Dobbs was the starting QB in that game, and twice receivers dropped TD passes that would have gotten the Cardinals the back door cover in the closing seconds.  Murray is clearly and upgrade over Dobbs.

The 49ers had six starters miss practice on Wednesday heading into this game.  DT Arik Armstead, OL Spencer Burford, LB Oren Burks, LB Dre Greenlaw, DT Javon Hargrave and CB Charvaius Ward were all out Wednesday.  That makes all six questionable heading into this one, and I would not be surprised to see the 49ers be cautious with some of these guys thinking they can still beat the Cardinals without them.

The Cardinals should get rookie WR Michael Wilson back for the first time since November 17th.  There's also a decent chance WR Marquise Brown plays after the bye week.  CB Antonio Hamilton sat out last game but is back practicing.  The bottom line is the Cardinals should be much healthier this week, while the 49ers have a lot of key players that could miss this game after getting battered against the Seahawks last week.

It's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers, who are power-rated through the roof by everyone right now.  Plays against road favorites (San Francisco) - a dominant team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game after a win by 10 points or more are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on 49ers/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers have the best offense in the NFL right now.  They are scoring 29.2 points per game, averaging 402.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now and have scored at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  They will get their points against the Cardinals this week as well.

But I think the Cardinals can get their points, too.  They are coming off a bye week and should get WR Michael Wilson back this week.  The Cardinals put up 24 points on the Steelers the game going into their bye, and they are primed for another solid performance here against the 49ers.  They should have some new offensive wrinkles for Murray under a first-year head coach coming out of their bye.

The Cardinals do have one of the worst defenses in the NFL allowing 25.5 points per game, 355.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have allowed 35, 38, 38 and 31 points to the 49ers in their last four meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in those four meetings with 48 or more combined points in all four.

The 49ers have a very good defense, but they have some concerning injuries on that side of the ball right now.  Four starters in LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, DL Javon Hargrave and LB Oren Burks all missed practice on Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week.  The Seahawks found success against them last week even with backup QB Drew Lock.  I think this could be a letdown spot for this San Francisco defense.  Josh Dobbs and Arizona's offense put up 362 total yards on the 49ers in their first meeting this season.  Kyler Murray should have even more success.  

The OVER is 5-0-1 in Arizona's six home games this season inside the dome.  We are seeing 51.9 combined points per game in these six games.  Five of the six games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic today.  They will be out for revenge from a 111-128 loss in Boston on Friday night.  They were closing 5-point dogs in that game, and after getting blown out, they are now 9-point dogs in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment up.

The Celtics won't be motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in 3 days, so they are primed for a letdown.  Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Celtics have just two wins by more than 10 points in their last 14 games overall.

The Magic are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Magic are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright upsets as 13.5, 10.5, 7.5 and 5.5-point dogs.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings as well with that 17-point loss the only one that came by more than 6 points.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5

I've backed the Bears each of the last two weeks and they delivered pulling off the outright upsets over the Vikings and Lions.  I'm going to back them again this week as 3.5-point road dogs to Cleveland as they continue to be undervalued.  Their season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they have been a completely different team in the 2nd half of the season.

It basically started when they traded for Montez Sweat and the defense got healthy.  The Bears have allowed 13 points or fewer in three of their last four games.  The held the Lions to just 14 points with only a few minutes left in the game before the Lions went off for 17 points in the final couple minutes.  They got their revenge on the Lions with a 28-13 home win last week, holding them to 267 total yards in the process.

Now the Bears actually feel like they are still alive for the playoffs at 5-8 this season.  If they win this game against Cleveland, then they have two home games they will likely be favored in the next two weeks against Arizona and Atlanta.  They can legitimately get to 8-8 this season, and that would keep them alive because the 6-7 Packers are currently in the playoffs in the NFC if the season were to end today.  They play the Packers in Week 18.

Justin Fields returned against the Lions three weeks ago and has been playing some pretty flawless football both as a runner and as a passer.  He has found a great connection with DJ Moore, and the Bears have really opened up the playbook.  Also helping matters is the fact that the Bears are currently the healthiest team in the NFL.  They only have five players on the injury report and two are likely to play this week with only one for sure out.

Conversely, the Cleveland Browns are the most injury-riddled team in the entire NFL right now.  They are down to their 4th different starting QB in Joe Flacco, and while he has played well, there's reason to believe he won't this week.  That's because the offensive line will be without their top 3 offensive tackles.  G Joel Bitonio and C Ethan Pocic are also questionable.  This is an absolute mash unit up front for Flacco.

Defensively, DE Myles Garrett is banged up.  DT Jordan Elliott, CB Denzel Ward, and FS Juan Thornhill are all questionable.  SS Grant Delpit just hit the IR after suffering a groin injury last week.  This Cleveland defense has taken a big step back in recent weeks due to all these injuries.  They are allowing 30.7 points per game in their last three games.  They gave up 29 to Denver, 36 to the Rams and 27 to the Jaguars.  The Bears are going to have a lot of success against this defense, especially on the ground.  Cleveland is allowing 130 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per game in its last four games.

Cleveland would have gone five consecutive games without winning once by more than 3 points if the Jaguars had kicked the XP at the end in a 4-point loss.  That's why getting this +3.5 number is so key.  Also keep in mind the Jaguars were playing with a banged-up and immobile Trevor Lawrence, he was missing his top receiver and both starting tackles on offense.  Yet the Jaguars still scored 27 points on them.  And this will be the toughest defense that Joe Flacco will have faced after getting to face the Jaguars and Rams previously.  I fully expect Chicago to win this game outright.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have been grossly undervalued since Tommy DeVito took over as the full-time starter.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets.  They beat Washington 31-19 as 7.5-point road dogs, the Patriots 10-7 as 4.5-point home dogs and the Packers 24-22 as 5.5-point home dogs.  Now they are being undervalued again here as 6-point road dogs at New Orleans.

DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 66% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 6.8 per attempt, plus he adds a dual-threat dimension with 71 rushing yards and on 10 attempts against the Packers.  The Giants used their bye well and came up with the proper game plan to beat the Packers and use DeVito's legs more.  And now they should still be fresh considering they just had a bye week to make up for the fact that this is a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

But while I believe the Giants are undervalued, this is as much a bet against the Saints being overvalued as anything.  They are coming off one of the most misleading finals of the season last week when they beat the Panthers 28-6.  They only gained 207 yards in that game and gave up 303 yards to the Panthers, nearly getting outgained by 100 yards despite winning by 22.

Derek Carr came out and said he's playing through fractured ribs.  This is a very banged up Saints team with their top two WR's in Olave and Shaheed questionable.  G Andrus Peat is also questionable as is do-it-all QB Taysom Hill, who sat out last week.  Defensively, the Saints have lost their best CB in Marshon Lattimore, starting S Marcus Maye and starting DT Malcolm Roach who are all on injured reserve.

I just don't think there's much separating these two teams right now.  The Giants' season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they are a much better team now than they were in the first half of the season.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on the offensive line and at receiver, plus having RB Saquan Barkley healthy has made a big difference as well.  Their defense is good enough to keep them in this game for four quarters and is playing at a high level right now.  The team clearly has belief now with DeVito under center.

Derek Carr is 19-37 ATS as a favorite in his career, including 9-26 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Dennis Allen is 6-16 ATS as a favorite as a head coach, including 2-8 ATS this season.  Allen is 0-7 ATS after a win by 10 points or more as a head coach.  New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  New York is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Saints are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +10

The Utah Jazz are getting healthier and playing well again as a result.  They are coming off consecutive upset wins as underdogs over the New York Knicks and Portland Trail Blazers.  They recently got both Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler back from injury, and these are arguably their two most important players.

Now the Jazz are catching too many points on the road against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  De'Aaron Fox is questionable to play and he means everything to the Kings' success.  I still like the Jazz even if he does play, but this line will crash if he doesn't.

Utah has just one loss by more than 9 points in its last 35 meetings with Sacramento.  That makes for a 34-1 system backing the Jazz pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Warriors OVER 234.5

The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They are going to be a dead nuts OVER team because they don't play defense without these two, but they are still a pretty good offensive team without them as neither provides much on that end.

The Warriors are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 234 or more combined points in nine of those.  The Nets are the definition of team basketball with multiple guys that can beat you on any given night.  The Warriors will have a hard time adjusting to try and stop the Nets, who have seven players averaging double-digits scoring.

The Nets and Warriors combined for 256 and 236 points in their last two meetings.  Golden State is 12-3 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Broncos/Lions Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver +5.5

The Detroit Lions just cannot be trusted right now because they are so poor defensively.  They allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 points to the Bears, 29 points to the Packers, 28 to the Saints and 28 to the Bears in their last five games.  There is no help in sight, especially since they lost one of their most important defensive players in DT Alim McNeill to injured reserve two games ago.

Jared Goff is not playing well either and he has poor protection in front of him.  Both T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnow are questionable for this game.  Now he'll be up against a very good Denver defense that has allowed 22 or fewer points in eight consecutive games and an average of 14.8 points per game in those eight games.  They have been grossly undervalued after a poor start to the season by their defense, but now they are healthy and showing what they are capable of.

This defensive surge for the Broncos is a big reason why they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last even games overall with their lone loss coming by 5 points at Houston in a game where they had a chance to win in the closing seconds but threw an INT in the end zone.  They beat the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, Browns, Packers and Chargers during this 6-1 stretch, so it's not like they are beating up on the weak.  Five of those six wins came against playoff contenders.

This Denver offense is taking care of the football with a ball control offense and taking shots when they are there.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games overall, and they won't have a problem getting to that number against this soft Detroit defense.  This is actually a big step down in class for them after facing the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Vikings, Bills and Chiefs in their last six games.  Russell Wilson is in line for a big game, as is RB Javonte Williams and this Denver rushing attack.

Detroit is 35-58 ATS in its last 93 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Sean Payton is 28-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as a head coach.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after allowing 25 points or more in four consecutive games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983.  This game will likely be decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Broncos Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are loaded this season.  They are 18-5 SU including 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game.  The Timberwolves will make easy work of the Indiana Pacers tonight.

While the Timberwolves are fully healthy, the Pacers could be without MVP candidate Tyrese Haliburton tonight.  They are already without PG Andrew Nembhard and PF Jalen Smith.  Haliburton suffered a knee injury in a 123-137 loss at Washington last night.  Now the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.

This is a tired Pacers team after making it to the championship game of the in-season tournament.  That has started to show in their last two games losing by 14 as 6.5-point dogs in Milwaukee and then getting upset by 14 as 8.5-point favorites in Washington last night, failing to cover the spread by 22.5 points.

The Timberwolves will be the much fresher team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are also the much better defensive team ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive rating while the Pacers are 28th.  Plays against road underdogs (Indiana) - off two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that's off a road win by 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Timberwolves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pacers.  Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Alabama/Creighton FOX ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +7.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  They have gone 2-3 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  The three losses came to Ohio State, Clemson and Purdue.  The Crimson Tide have now faced the 21st-toughest schedule in the entire country and are battle-tested to say the least.

Creighton is good at beating up on the weak.  But the Bluejays have struggled in a couple games this season that are very concerning.  They lost outright 69-48 as 9-point favorites on a neutral to Colorado State and outright 79-64 as 13.5-point favorites on a neutral to UNLV.  They got blown out in both of those games.

Now this is a tough spot for Creighton having just two days since the UNLV game to get ready to face Alabama.  Meanwhile, Alabama has had an entire week to get ready for Creighton after having the last six days off since a tough 92-86 loss to Purdue on a neutral.  Many consider Purdue the best team in the country.

Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after making 10 or more 3-pointers in consecutive games.  Alabama ranks 1st in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 5th in 3-point percentage this season.  Creighton hasn't faced a team as good as Alabama yet, and they shouldn't be 7.5-point favorites here.  

Nate Oats is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

20* Arizona/Purdue No-Brainer on Arizona PK

The Arizona Wildcats look like the best team in the country and continue to lack the respect they deserves.  The Wildcats are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 30.1 points per game on average.  They have the big men inside that will finally give Purdue trouble.

We've seen Arizona already handle a pair of Big Ten teams in Wisconsin 98-73 and Michigan State 74-68.  The Wildcats also went on the road and beat Duke 78-73, handing the Blue Devils their first loss at Cameron Indoor in a couple seasons.

Purdue lost 92-88 (OT) to Northwestern.  The Boilermakers have had to escape with several victories, beating Gonzaga by 10, Tennessee by 4, Marquette by 3 and Alabama by 6.  Their luck runs out today against a superior team here in Arizona, which ranks 2nd in adjusted defense and 6th in adjusted offense, the only team to rank in the top 6 in both categories this season.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah State -2

Utah State is loaded this season.  The Aggies are 10-1 and outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game.  This will basically be a home game for them being played in Salt Lake City, UT.

San Francisco is 8-3 this season and has not fared well when stepping up in class.  The Dons have losses to Boise State, Grand Canyon and Arizona State.  Utah State is a team that is on Grand Canyon's level and better than both Boise State and Arizona State.

Utah State is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 neutral court games.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams that make 48% of their shots or better.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Clemson/Memphis ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -2.5

The Memphis Tigers are really starting to play well under Penny Hardaway.  He always gets the top recruits so it can take some time for his team to gel.  But they have certainly shown those signs of gelling of late, beating VCU 85-80 as 2-point road favorites and upsetting Texas A&M 81-75 as 8.5-point road dogs in their last two games coming in.

Memphis has faced the 11th-toughest schedule in the entire country to this point.  The Tigers have only had two home games all season.  Now they finally get to play at home for the first time since November 17th, and they will be excited to do so.  They have unbeaten Clemson coming to town.

I think it's telling that Clemson is the unbeaten and ranked team here and actually is an underdog at unranked Memphis.  I think Memphis proves it is the better team here.  The Tigers are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

15* Baylor/Michigan State FOX ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -3

The Baylor Bears are one of the best teams in the country and oddsmakers are failing to catch up to how good they are.  Baylor is 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS this season.  They beat Auburn and Florida on a neutral and now they will take down this overrated Michigan State team today.  Baylor ranks 2nd in adjusted offense and 44th in adjusted defense.

Michigan State is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS this season and consistently overvalued.  The Spartans were upset at home by James Madison as 16.5-point favorites in the opener, which would be a sign of things to come.  They lost by 9 to Duke on a neutral, by 6 to Arizona, by 13 at home to Wisconsin and also by 7 at Nebraska.

While Baylor ranks 1st in the country in 3-point percentage, Michigan State ranks 301st.  The Spartans shoot just 29.5% from 3 as a team.  That shooting discrepancy will come into play here in a big way and will be a key reason why the Bears run away with this one.

Michigan State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after making 88% of their free throws or better last game.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana State -13

Indiana State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Sycamores are 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road against Alabama.  They are outscoring opponents by 17.6 points per game on the season despite facing the 140th-ranked schedule.

Ball State is 8-2 but that has come against the 319th-ranked schedule.  Both losses came in two of their three true road games and both were in blowout fashion.  They lost 74-50 at Evansville and 90-64 at Arkansas-Little Rock.  Their lone road win came at Detroit by 3, and Detroit is 0-10 this season.  This will be by far the toughest test of the season for the Cardinals.

Indiana State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a double-digit favorite.  The Sycamores are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Indiana State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after making 13 or more 3-pointers last game.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* Vikings/Bengals NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have a terrible defense that has allowed 30 or more points in three of their last five games overall.  They also allowed over 400 yards to the Steelers in one of the two games they didn't.  They allow 379 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.

The offense hasn't missed a beat with Jake Browning at quarterback the last two weeks plus the emergence of Chase Brown in the backfield.  Ja'Marr Chase has been balling out for Browning, and having a healthy Tee Higgins back in the lineup has helped as well.

Browning is completing 76% of his passes for 924 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He went 32-of-37 passing for 354 yards against the Jaguars and 18-of-24 passing for 275 yards against the Colts in his last two games as the full-time starter.

The Vikings are making the switch to Nick Mullens at QB after the Josh Dobbs experiment did not work.  He was dreadful against the Bears and Raiders the last two weeks.  Mullens is a better fit for Kevin O'Connell's offensive system and will stand in the pocket and make the right throws.  He should be sharp with a full week to prepare to be the starter.

Mullens got good news on the injury front with WR Justin Jefferson expected to play.  He returned last week and got injured early against the Raiders.  I also think this Vikings offense will benefit from taking a step down in class this week against this Bengals defense.  The Vikings have played four straight good defenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints.

At the same time, this Minnesota defense is getting a lot of credit for what they have done in recent weeks.  But they have also benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints the last four weeks as well.  This is a big step up in class for them facing a Cincinnati offense that is humming right now.

The forecast looks great for a game in Cincinnati in December as well.  There are expected to be only 5 MPH winds with temps in the 50's.  I do think this game has shootout written all over it too, and this total is very low for a game involving the Bengals right now.

The OVER is 5-2 in Bengals last seven games overall and we've seen 42 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  Zac Taylor is 8-1 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kansas/Indiana CBS No-Brainer on Indiana +8

The Indiana Hoosiers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They should not be catching 8 points at home to the Kansas Jayhawks today in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere for the visitors.

Indiana is 4-0 at home this season, which includes a 65-53 win over Maryland as 2-point favorites.  The Jayhawks are a very motivated team coming off their worst loss of the season to Auburn on a neutral.  Their only other loss came to defending champion UConn on a neutral.

Kansas will be playing its first true road game of the season.  The Jayhawks got to host UConn and were fortunate to come away with a victory.  They are also coming off a 73-64 home win over Missouri as a 13-point favorite.  Off those two big wins recently, I don't think we get their best effort today, especially in their first road game.

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season.  It is actually outscoring opponents by 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after losing by 18 or more points ATS last game, in non-conference games between two teams from power conferences are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a 'buy low' spot on the Hoosiers off that loss to Auburn.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* Georgia Southern/Ohio 2023 Bowl Opener on Georgia Southern -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Southern Eagles after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games to close out the season.  They played a brutal schedule down the stretch with three of their final four games on the road.  They had little to play for after clinching bowl eligibility but also being eliminated from conference title contention simultaneously.

Now I think we get a fully focused effort from the Eagles in this bowl game.  They lost to Buffalo by 2 in their bowl game last season to fall to 6-7 and a losing record.  They don't want that to be their fate again.  The Eagles will have all hands on deck for this game with the exception of possibly RB Jalen White, who is questionable with injury.  They didn't have any opt-outs, which is unheard of in today's college football.

The transfer portal really hit Ohio hard.  The Bobcats will be without QB Kurtis Roarke (15 total TD), WR Miles Cross (47 receptions, 617 yards, 5 TD), RB Sieh Bangura (811 yards, 7 TD) and backup RB O'Shaan Allison (452 yards, 3 TD) on offense.  They also lose their best player on defense in LB Keye Thompson (94 tackles).  Ohio already lost WR Jacoby Jones earlier this season.  Backup QB CJ Harris led Ohio to a bowl victory last season, but he's out for the year, so they will be down to third-stringer Parker Navarro.  They are going to be without their top two QB's, their top two RB's and their top two WR's.  They won't be able to take advantage of what has been a suspect Georgia Southern defense.

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Ohio is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 road games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  It's only a four hour drive from Statesboro, Georgia to Conway, SC so the Eagles should have the majority of the fans at this game.  I can't see Ohio fans turning out to support a team that is losing all of its top playmakers on offense.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* Knicks/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 231.5

The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts OVER team since losing C Mitchell Robinson to injury.  He is their eraser inside defensively but he doesn't provide much offensively.  The Knicks have had to go more small ball since losing him.

The OVER is 6-0 in Knicks last six games overall.  We have seen 230 or more combined points in five of those six games.  Now they face a Phoenix Suns team that finally has Durant, Booker and Beal healthy at the same time for the first time all season.  They are going to be an offensive juggernaut moving forward when these three are on the court at the same time.

Phoenix is 13-4 OVER as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 11-3 OVER vs. poor defensive teams allowing 46% shooting or higher this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -9.5

I love the spot for the Bradley Braves.  They opened 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season, but have since gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall against a brutal schedule.  They suffered road losses to Murray State and Akron plus a home loss to Indiana State, which looks to be one of the best mid-major teams in the entire country.

Now I know we are going to get a very inspired effort from Bradley tonight to try and end this skid.  The Braves take a big step down in class here against Cleveland State, and a double-digit blowout in their favor should be the result.

Cleveland State is 6-5 SU & 5-4-1 ATS this season.  But the Vikings have gone 0-5 SU in all true/neutral road games this season.  They lost by 7 at Eastern Michigan, by 25 at Youngstown State, by 13 at St. Mary's and by 6 at Kent State.  And while Bradley has faced the 43rd-toughest schedule in the country, Cleveland State has faced the 216th.  This big difference in SOS is a big reason I'm on the Braves.

Bradley is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Braves are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  The Braves are 8-0 ATS in their last eight non-conference home games.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the entire country.  Bet Bradley Friday.

20* Lakers/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio +7.5

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge here after losing 122-119 to the Lakers on Wednesday.  Now they get to play the Lakers here two days later and go from 3.5-point dogs to 7.5-point dogs tonight.

While the Spurs will be motivated for revenge, the Lakers will have a hard time getting up emotionally to beat the Spurs by margin again tonight.  The Lakers just won the In-Season Tournament, and it's no surprise they are 0-2 ATS in their first two games out of the tournament as they just aren't as motivated to win these regular season games.  Don't be surprised if they lose outright tonight.

The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and playing competitive basketball with their last nine games all decided by 15 points or less, including six by single-digits.  Darvin Ham is 6-18 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Lakers.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Orlando Magic have a big rest advantage over the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Magic have had the last three days off while the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 116-107 win over the Cavaliers last night.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Celtics.  They have had some guys banged up and playing through injury, so don't be surprised if they rest one or multiple starters tonight.

The Magic have been grossly undervalued all season especially of late.  The Magic are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are nearly at full strength and one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they will have an advantage over the Celtics when they go to their bench, which they will need to given how tired their starters are right now.

Orlando has absolutely owned Boston in recent meetings.  In fact, the Magic are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with four outright upsets as 13.5, 10.5, 7.5 and 5.5-point dogs.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings as well with their lone SU loss coming by 6 points.  

Boston is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Wizards OVER 258.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers travel to face the Washington Wizards.  The Pacers rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.  The Wizards rank 2nd in pace and 30th in defensive rating.

The Pacers are 18-5 OVER in all games this season while the Wizards are 15-8 OVER in all games.  These teams met on October 25th earlier this season and the result was a 143-120 victory for the Pacers and 263 combined points.  It will be more of the same tonight.

Indiana is 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Indiana is 9-0 OVER in road games this season.  The Pacers are 9-0 OVER off a loss this season.  Washington is 9-0 OVER in its last nine home games after a combined score of 245 or more points in two consecutive games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are better than the Sacramento Kings this season and should not be underdogs to them, even on the road.  The Thunder are 15-7 SU & 15-6-1 ATS this season and outscoring their opponents by 7.6 points per game.

The Kings are 13-9 SU & 12-10 ATS this season and actually getting outscored by 0.6 points per game.  The Thunder rank 3rd in net rating (+7.6) which combines their offensive and defensive rating.  The Kings rank 20th (-0.5).

The Thunder are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They weren't fully healthy when they lost 105-98 in Sacramento in their first meeting this season.  I know they want revenge on the Kings, especially since they will be reminded that they have lost seven consecutive meetings in this series overall.  

That's why we will get a max effort from OKC tonight, and it will be good enough to pull off the outright upset.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets have been grossly undervalued all season.  They are 13-10 SU & 17-5-1 ATS this season.  They are the definition of team basketball with any of their five starters that can beat you on any given night, and also one of the best benches in the league.

This line has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Nets are on the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning outright at Phoenix against a Suns team that had Durant, Booker and Beal on the court at the same time for the first time all season.  But this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days, so they should still be pretty fresh.

There will be no letdown here for the Nets facing the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets have been grossly overvalued after winning that title last year.  They are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They will be without starter Kentavious-Caldwell Pope tonight, and their lack of depth this season is a big reason for their struggles.

The Nets are 8-1 ATS when the total is 230 or higher this season.  Asking the Nuggets to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5

I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They get a chance at quick revenge here after losing 113-120 in Boston on Tuesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later.  The Cavaliers will clearly be the more motivated team, while the Celtics will have a hard time getting up to beat this team again.

The Celtics aren't really blowing anyone out here of late.  They have just one win by more than 10 points in their last 12 games.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us in a letdown spot is asking too much.

Keep in mind the Celtics made 20 more free throws than the Cavaliers did in that last meeting and still only won by 7.  They got the benefit of the whistles in that game, and I don't see that being the case again.

Cleveland is actually 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Boston with just one loss by more than 9 points.  That one loss came by only 10 points as well.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the Celtics pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - after scoring 120 points or more in two consecutive games are 192-124 (60.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (Boston) - who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game in the month of December are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Creighton -12.5

The Creighton Bluejays got a wake up call with a bad loss to Colorado State on November 23rd.  That's a really good Colorado State team, but it refocused them and we have seen what they are capable of when locked in in their three games since.

Indeed, the Bluejays are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall winning 79-65 as 8-point road favorites at Oklahoma State, 89-60 as 4-point road favorites at Nebraska and 109-64 as 31-point home favorites over Central Michigan.  I fully expect another blowout win in Creighton's favor in this neutral court game actually called the Jack Jones Classic at Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, NV.  No, I'm not the actual sponsor.

UNLV has been overvalued all season off to a 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS start this season.  The Rebels lost a lot in the transfer portal.  Their three wins this season have come against Stetson, Pepperdine and Akron.  They were actually upset 85-71 by Stetson as 20-point home favorites in their opener, a sign of things to come for this team.  They lost by 8 as 3-point dogs to FSU on a neutral and by 17 as 3-point favorites to Richmond on a neutral.  Now Creighton will be by far the best team they have faced this season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Doug McDermott is 172-133 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Creighton.  McDermott is 19-6 ATS following two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more as a head coach.  Bet Creighton Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They have lost to the Pacers in both meetings this season and both were away from home.  That includes their 128-119 loss to the Pacers in the in-season tournament that knocked them out in the semifinals.  It's safe to say they want revenge, and we will get their best effort tonight as they get them at home for the first time this season.

The Pacers were in a letdown spot after losing to the Lakers in the finals of the in-season tournament, but unfortunately the Detroit Pistons haven't won a game in over a month and couldn't take advantage.  The Bucks will take advantage, and I think this is where we finally see the letdown for the Pacers, especially after just beating the Bucks a week ago.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat them in this game as they were in the in-season tournament.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8

I love the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They have a chance at quick revenge here after losing 114-116 to the Heat on Monday night.  Now they travel to Miami to face the Heat here just two days later on Wednesday.  I like them to stay within this inflated number at the very least and possibly pull off the upset.

The Heat are in no position to be laying 8 points to the Hornets right now.  They are without Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Haywood Highsmith.  They are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.  Adebayo is arguably their most important player, at least even with Jimmy Butler.

The Hornets have been playing some very competitive basketball with four of their last five games decided by 6 points or fewer.  They rarely get blown out by the Heat, either.  The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four were decided by 6 points or less with two outright upsets by the Hornets.

Miami is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Heat are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  Miami is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games when playing against a bad team (25-40% winning percentage).  They Heat are the classic team that plays to the level of their competition, and they won't be motivated at all to beat the Hornets for a 2nd time in 3 days.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Kings/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 11th in pace, 12th in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now and as long as De'Aaron Fox is on the court, they are going to be an OVER team.  They have scored at least 112 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

The Los Angels Clippers are showing their offensive potential when fully healthy, which is the case right now.  They have scored at least 111 points in five of their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 132-127 win over Portland last night.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Clippers and Kings.  They combined for 248 points in their lone meeting this season, and 255 and 351 points in their final two meetings last season.  The 351 was an OT game that still saw 306 points at the end of regulation.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Celtics OVER 223.5

Both the Cavaliers and Celtics are more OVER teams than people realize, especially when healthy.  The Celtics are loaded on offense with Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis and White.  They have all five guys healthy right now for basically the first time this season.  They rank 7th in offensive rating and are probably the most efficient offensive team in the NBA when healthy.

The Celtics just showed what they are capable of with a 133-123 victory over the Knicks last time out with a total of just 221.  This total has been set too low at 223.5 against the Cavaliers tonight as well.  Cleveland has more shooting this season with the additions of Strus and Niang, and they could get both Evan Mobley and Caris LeVert back tonight, who sat out last night but are upgraded to questionable today.  Those two combine for nearly 31 points per game.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Cleveland and Boston.  We have seen 227 or more combined points in all four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Monmouth +15

Monmouth has been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  The Hawks are 5-4 SU & 6-2-1 ATS this season with just one loss by more than 15 points despite playing the 99th-toughest schedule of 362 teams in the country.  That came to Princeton, which is 9-1 this season.

The Hawks lost by 11 at George Mason as 11-point dogs, upset West Virginia by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs, upset Belmont by 9 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral and only lost by 4 at Cornell as a 12.5-point road dog.  I think they can hang with Seton Hall on the road tonight.

Seton Hall has been grossly overvalued here of late.  The Pirates have gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 8 to USC at 4-point dogs on a neutral, lost by 13 to Iowa as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral, only beat Northeastern by 13 as 15-point home favorites, lost by 18 at Baylor as 11-point dogs and lost by 7 at home to Rutgers as 3.5-point favorites.

When you look at what Rutgers and Iowa have done recently, those losses look even worse.  Keep in mind they also only beat St. Peter's by 11 as 17-point favorites at home earlier this season.  The only three games they covered were against overmatched competition in Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner.  Monmouth is not overmatched here.  Bet Monmouth Tuesday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Titans/Dolphins OVER 46.5

Miami averages 32.0 points per game, 428.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and they just got their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury last week.  He averages 9.5 yards per carry with 534 rushing yards and 7 TD, while also catching 13 balls for 101 yards and another 2 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog two weeks ago in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  They also potentially lost fellow LB Jerome Baker to a knee injury in their 45-15 win over the Commanders last week.  They are getting short on pass rushers.

The Titans are coming off a 31-28 (OT) shootout loss to the Colts last week.  They did enough on offense to win that game with 381 total yards.  Unfortunately their defense and special teams let them down, and they lost their punter to injury after having his 2nd punt blocked.  They also lost Derrick Henry, but he cleared concussion protocol and there's a good chance he plays this week.  But the big loss is DT Jeffery Simmons, who suffered a knee injury last week and is now out for this game.  Simmons is one of the best DT in the entire NFL and one of the most underrated as well.

The Dolphins are going to be able to name their number against this putrid Tennessee defense that allows 67.3% completions and 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  They gave up 31 points and 300 passing yards to the Colts last week.  They gave up 34 points in their previous road game to the Jaguars.  And now they will be up against the best offense they have faced all season this week.

I think Will Levis can do enough to keep the Titans coming back and help cash this OVER ticket.  Levis is one of the top deep ball throwers in the NFL right now and has found a good connection with DeAndre Hopkins.  He also has a weapon in Tyjae Spears out of the backfield and is forming chemistry with Chigoziem Okonkwo, who had 3 receptions for 62 yards against the Colts last week.

Miami and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in nine of its 12 games this season.  The only exceptions were against three teams with bad offenses and good defenses in the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders.  The Titans don't meet the criteria of a good defense, especially after trading away S Kevin Byard and now losing DT Jeffery Simmons to injury.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Tennessee) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival in the 2nd half of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last five seasons.  Teams in this situation off a 7-point loss or less are 41-15 (73.2%) to the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the Green Bay Packers this week.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.  They took advantage of several drops by the Chargers and won 23-20 as 3-point home dogs.  They took advantage of more mistakes by the Lions in a 29-22 win as 8.5-point road dogs on Thanksgiving.

Last week they didn't have a letdown because they had the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs come to Lambeau Field.  They promptly pulled off the 27-19 upset as 6-point home dogs.  The Chiefs' offense remained broken, and they lost two starters on defense and one on offense due to injury throughout the game.

This is the letdown spot.  Now the Packers go from 6-point home dogs to 7-point road favorites against the New York Giants.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Giants as they were the Lions and Chiefs.  You just can't get up for opponents this many games in a row.  This is a clear flat spot for the Packers, who are fat and happy right now and primed for that dreaded letdown.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants continue to get no respect from the books for a 3rd consecutive game.  The Giants pulled the 31-19 upset as 7.5-point road dogs to the Commanders two games ago.  They pulled the 10-7 upset home win over the Patriots as 4.5-point dogs in their last game.  And last week they had a bye to rest and recover and prepare to face the Packers.

Head coach Brian Daboll is one of the best in the business at getting the most out of his players.  He will come up with the proper game plan to get his team ready.  Tommy DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for, completing 63% of his passes with a 7-to-3 TD/INT ratio in five games this season.  He has more TD passes (7) than Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor (4) have combined for this season.  And the team loves him and is playing hard for him, which is what matters most.

The Giants have a pretty good defense and have held opponents to just 18.2 points per game, 271 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play at home this season.  They will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Jordan Love and company.  Love and WR Christian Watson were forming a great chemistry, but Watson suffered a hamstring injury late in the win over the Chiefs and is doubtful to play this week.  Also doubtful is RB Aaron Jones, and TE Luke Musgrave remains out.  The Watson injury in particular is massive because the Packers have a bunch of no-name receivers outside he and Doubs.

The Giants have a healthy Saquon Barkley to deploy against this shaky Packers run defense and take some pressure off DeVito.  The Packers have allowed at least 140 rushing yards in four consecutive games.  They allow 136 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry on the season, making them one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  They are 30th in rushing yards per game allowed and 26th in yards per carry allowed.

Green Bay is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that allow 130 or more rushing yards per game.  Plays against road favorites (Green Bay) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 335-370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers will get more of a fight from the rested Giants than they bargained for Monday night.  It's time to 'sell high' on Green Bay.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11.5

The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall since losing Zach LaVine to injury.  It's no surprise nobody wants to trade for this guy.  The Bulls are playing better team basketball now and it is paying off.

The Bulls upset the Bucks 120-113 as 9.5-point dogs, upset the Pelicans 124-118 as 3-point dogs, crushed the Hornets 111-100 as 5-point favorites and rolled to a 121-112 victory at San Antonio as 2-point favorites.  Now the Bulls are catching too many points against the Bucks again tonight.

The Bucks will have questionable motivation here after being on the big stage and losing in the semifinals to the Pacers in the in-season tournament in their last game.  They won't be nearly as motivated here in their first game back from the tournament, which will help the Bulls keep this one close.

The Bulls are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks which have all six been decided by 13 points or fewer, so they tend to take the Bucks to the wire every time.  Billy Donovan is 42-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as a head coach.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Hawks OVER 241

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-2-1 in Atlanta home games this season where they are scoring 125.3 points per game and allowing 126.1 points per game with an average of 251.4 combined points per game.

The Hawks and 76ers just combined for 239 points last game in a game Trae Young sat out with an illness.  But Young returns tonight and he is the key to them being an OVER team.  Now they take on a Denver Nuggets team that recently got Jamal Murray back, and he is the key to them being an OVER team when he's on the court.

Mike Malone is 67-38 OVER off a home loss as the coach of Denver.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -120

I like the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They want revenge from a 111-121 loss in Cleveland on November 6th just five days ago.  Now the Magic get the Cavaliers at home this time around.  

The Magic are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS at home this season.  They have beaten the Lakers by 19, the Bucks by 15, the Nuggets by 5 and the Celtics by 17 at home this season.  So it's not like they are beating up on a bunch of bad teams.

The Cavaliers will be missing two key players tonight in Evan Mobley (16.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) and Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG).  They should not be getting this much respect from the books without these two.  The Magic have won 9 consecutive home games and they make it 10 in a row tonight.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

25* Eagles/Cowboys NBC SNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas -3

My favorite play last week was the 49ers over the Eagles.  One of my favorite plays this week is the Cowboys over the Eagles for many of the same reasons.  Just like the 49ers wanted revenge from their playoff loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys want revenge from their 28-23 loss in Philadelphia earlier this season.

Just like the 49ers had the rest advantage on the Eagles after playing on Thursday while the Eagles played on Monday the previous week, the Cowboys have the rest advantage after playing on Thursday while the Eagles were in that war with the 49ers.  In fact, the Eagles have been in several wars here recently and don't have anything left in the tank for the Cowboys.

The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet.  They put in a lot against the 49ers last week in their 42-19 defeat.  They just went to OT against the Bills the week prior in a downpour.  They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior.  And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior.  So this will be their 5th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL.

The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out.  They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills.  They gave up 515 total yards to the Bills and then were gashed for 42 points and 456 yards by the 49ers.  They also banged up and injured, particularly on defense.

The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until the last two weeks.  Well, the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks.  They beat the Commanders five games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys four games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs three games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills two weeks ago despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.  They were outgained by 123 yards by the 49ers last week.

As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in five consecutive games and somehow managed to win four of them.  They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score.  Their luck ran out last week against the 49ers, and it won't come back this week against a Cowboys team that is fresher, healthier and simply wants it more.

The numbers certainly show the Cowboys are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play this season, while the Eagles are only outgaining opponents by 11 yards per game and actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Dallas should be more than a 3-point home favorite when you consider they are the better team with all those rest and healthy advantages to boot.

Dallas is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.2 points per game.  The Cowboys are scoring 41.0 points per game at home this season.  They have scored 40, 41, 37, 37 and 29 points in their last five home meetings with the Eagles while going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in those five home meetings.  Betting Dallas team total over 27.5 is also worth a bet this week.  

Dallas is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in its previous game.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. awful passing defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards per game.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 30 points or more last game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Dallas.  The Cowboys were looking ahead to this game against Philadelphia and still managed to beat the Seahawks 41-35 last week.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Bills/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +3

I love the spot for the Buffalo Bills this week.  They are desperate for a win sitting at 6-6 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.  The Bills got their bye week at the perfect time last week to give them a chance to get healthy and rested to make a run here down the stretch.  It starts with an upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs this week.

The Bills are one of the best 6-6 teams in NFL history when you look at their numbers.  They are actually outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game, outgaining opponents by 64 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.  They have simply had poor luck in close games with all six losses coming by 6 points or fewer.

The Chiefs have been through a bit of a gauntlet the last three weeks.  They lost 21-17 at home to Philadelphia after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead three weeks ago.  They needed to come back from 14-0 down to beat the Raiders two weeks ago on the road.  And last week they lost 27-19 at Green Bay on Sunday Night Football.  They won't be able to match the intensity of the rested Bills.

The Chiefs suffered some key injuries in that loss to the Packers last week.  They lost LB Drue Tranquill to a concussion, S Bryan Cook to an ankle and T Donovan Smith to a neck injury.  The first two almost certainly will be out, while Smith is highly questionable.  That's a big blow to their defense, which was already missing LB Nick Bolton.  That defense got gashed by the Packers for 27 points and 382 total yards.

This Kansas City offense is broken, which is why the Chiefs aren't nearly as good as they have been in year's past.  They average just 22.9 points per game this season.  That's a far cry from the 30-plus they have been averaging since Mahomes took over at QB.  It's late enough in the season to realize this offense just isn't going to get fixed because there is a lack of playmakers on the outside other than Travis Kelce, and teams have been scheming to take him away.  The Bills will be doing the same.

The Bills are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 25 points or more.  Buffalo is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 road games off a road loss.  Plays on road teams (Buffalo) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 91-38 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  These teams are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 years when the line is +3 to -3.  

Buffalo is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Kansas City.  Sean McDermott is 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers are catching too many points against the Texas A&M Aggies today.  Memphis just reloads under Penny Hardaway and has been impressive this season.  The Tigers are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming to Villanova and Ole Miss.

The Tigers have been through the gauntlet once against testing themselves in the non-conference with the 28th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  Their highlights have been a 70-55 upset road win at Missouri as 3-point dogs, a 71-67 upset win over Michigan on a neutral as 1-point dogs and a 84-79 upset win over Arkansas on a neutral as 1-point dogs.  They ran out of gas against Villanova playing for a 3rd consecutive day.  They only lost by 3 at unbeaten Ole Miss, and they won by 5 at VCU as 2-point favorites.

Texas A&M already has two losses this season as well with a 96-89 loss to FAU on a neutral and a 59-47 road loss at Virginia as 3-point dogs.  They played close games against Ohio State, Oreal Roberts and Iowa State that were all decided by 8 points or fewer, and I think this one is decided by 8 points or fewer as well.

Memphis is 32-16 ATS in its last 48 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Tigers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Texas A&M is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 games following a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  Penny Hardaway is 28-15 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Memphis.  Bet Memphis Sunday.

20* Colorado/Miami ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami PK

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 16.5 points, Norchad Omier averaging 16.1 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.5 points and 4.1 assists.

Bensley Joseph (9.1 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.1 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a Swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.8 points and 4.4 rebounds.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami is 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road at Kentucky.  Now they are on a neutral where they have thrived in recent seasons making deep runs into the NCAA Tournament.  They take on a Colorado team that is getting too much respect from the books.

Colorado is 6-2 this season with 5-0 at home against weak competition and 1-2 in road/neutral games.  They only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites on a neutral, and lost by 5 at Colorado State as 3.5-point dogs.  The Buffaloes have some of the biggest home/road splits in all of college basketball for years.  This will be an early body clock game for them tipping at 2:00 EST, and they aren't used to playing this early in the day.

Colorado is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a win by 10 points or more.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after playing a home game.  The Hurricanes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Miami Sunday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears +5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears Sunday.  They will be out for revenge from blowing a 26-14 lead with under 3 minutes to go in a 31-26 loss to the Lions just three weeks ago.  The Bears are the healthiest team in the NFL right now and coming out of their bye week.  This team is trending in the right direction and primed for a big effort Sunday off the bye.

Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now.  He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games.  They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.

The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now.  The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games.  They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall.  It is tough for them to get margin when they can't stop anyone.

The weather is going to help us cash this ticket on the Bears.  The forecast is calling for 20 MPH winds and better than a 50% chance of precipitation.  The Bears rely much more on running the football than the Lions do.  Jared Goff has not been good outdoors in bad weather in his career.  The weather will limit this usually potent Detroit passing attack.

The Lions are going to be forced to run the football more than they want to, and when they try they are going to be up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Bears.  The allow just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  The Bears have been playing great defense for weeks since getting healthy and trading for Montez Sweat.  That is a big reason they are undervalued, plus the fact that Fields has been better than most realize.

The Lions lost their two centerpieces to injury last week against the Saints.  They will be without DT Alim McNeill and C Frank Ragnow.  Their losses hurt this team more than most realize as McNeill is a great run stuffer and also had 5 sacks this season.  Many feel he is the heart and soul of the defense.  Ragnow is a tremendous run blocker and makes all the calls on the offensive line.  Goff will be very uncomfortable without him.

Detroit is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Lions are a tired team playing four straight one-score games the last four weeks.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bears, who are off their bye and ready for revenge in the elements at Soldier Field.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lions/Bears OVER 43.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 79, 57, 51 and 61 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.  I get there is expected to be some weather, but I still like the OVER in this one.

Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now.  He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games.  They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.

The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now.  The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games.  They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall.

It will be tough for the Bears to tame this Detroit offense for four quarters.  The Lions are loaded with weapons and a good rushing attack.  They average 27.3 points per game, 400.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 57, 61 and 61 combined points.  Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Lions are 7-1 OVER off a win this season.  Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. teams that allow 235 or more passing yards per game.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 39

The first meeting between the Bucs and Falcons this season saw just 29 combined points in a 16-13 road victory by the Falcons.  The score from that first meeting is providing us some line value to go OVER the total in the 2nd meeting here with a total below the key number of 40.

That first meeting should have seen nearly 50 combined points.  Desmond Ridder fumbled three times when the Falcons were in scoring position, including twice at the Tampa Bay 1-yard line.  That's a minimum of 17 extra points they should have had but didn't get.  The Bucs also had two turnovers and red zone struggles.  These teams combined for 730 total yards with the Falcons with 401 and the Bucs with 329.  Both teams moved the ball with plenty of ease in that contest.

The difference in the rematch is now this is going to be on a fast track inside the dome in Atlanta.  Looking back at this head-to-head history, it's easy to see there's value with the OVER when looking at previous games played in Atlanta.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 43 or more points in 10 consecutive meetings in Atlanta, including 47 or more in nine of those 10.  They have averaged 54.8 combined points per game in those 10 games, which is more than 15 points higher than this total.  They have combined for 39 or more points in 13 consecutive meetings in Atlanta as well, making for a 12-0-1 system backing this OVER pertaining to this 39-point total.

More key differences in the rematch are that both defenses are banged up and missing key players.  The Falcons lost their most important defender in DT Grady Jarrett to a torn ACL.  Last week they lost their top CB AJ Terrell to a concussion, and it's unlikely he'll be able to clear protocols in time for this one.  That's bad news for the Falcons not having him against Tampa Bay star WR Mike Evans, who just topped 1,000 yards receiving for the 10th consecutive season last week.  Only Jerry Rice has more with 11.  Starting MLB Nate Landman and starting NT David Onyemata are both questionable as well.

The Bucs have all kinds of injuries at linebacker.  They were without five linebackers by the end of their game against the Panthers last week.  Lavonte David may return this week, but they are thin at the position.  NT Vita Vea missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury, and their top CB in Jamel Dean remains out.  

What was previously a great Tampa Bay run defense now has shown some holes the last two weeks.  The Colts rushed for 155 yards on them and the Panthers rushed for 133 on them the last two games.  Now they have to try and tame one of the best rushing attack in the NFL in the Falcons, who average 135 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this season.

I think Atlanta's low-scoring game with the Jets last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  That game was played outdoors and the Falcons were just trying not to make mistakes because they knew the Jets couldn't move the football on them with Tim Boyle at QB.  It has bene a different story at home for the Falcons this season.  The Falcons average 23.0 points per game, 380.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play at home on the fast track.  They also allow 20.5 points per game at home, averaging 43.5 combined points per game in their six home games this season.

The Bucs allow 23.8 points per game, 383.8 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on the road this season.  Their offense has been better on the road, averaging 22.5 points per game away from home.  Tampa Bay road games are averaging 46.3 combined points per game this season.  Given all the defensive injuries for both teams and all these numbers, this 39-point total is clearly too low this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine +10

UC-Irvine is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters are 6-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They pulled the 70-60 upset as 12.5-point dogs at USC.  They did lose by 4 at Duquesne as 5.5-point dogs and by 10 at Utah State as 6.5-point dogs, so they have been through the gauntlet.  They have faced the 25th-toughest schedule in the entire country and won't be phased by San Diego State.

The Aztecs came into this season way overvalued after making the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year.  San Diego State is 7-2 SU but 2-6 ATS this season.  They are fortunate to have escaped with a bunch of close wins over bad teams.  They lost at BYU by 9 in and only beat Cal San Diego by 1 as 13.5-point road favorites in their only two true road games.  They also failed to cover in a 12-point win over Long Beach State, a 3-point win over Washington and a 9-point win over California.  They only beat Division II Point Loma by 20 at home prior to that 1-point escape at Cal San Diego.  They were upset by Grand Canyon last time out.  They have no business being double-digit favorites here.

UC-Irvine is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Anteaters are 35-12 ATS in their last 47 road games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

20* Pacers/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 241.5

It's no surprise that both semifinal games of the In-Season Tournament went UNDER the total.  These teams are actually playing defense in these win-or-go-home games.  It also helps that there's $500,000 on the line to each player on the winning team.

More defense will be played tonight in the championship game between the Pacers and Lakers with both teams desperate to win this tournament and collect that money.  I've been backing Pacers overs all season, but now is the time to take a Pacers under.

The Lakers rank 7th in defensive rating and 22nd in offensive rating this season.  They are the type of team that will slow it down to play at the pace they are comfortable with and not let Indiana dictate what they do.  The Lakers have held the Pelicans to 89 points, the Suns to 103 and the Rockets to 97 in their last three games coming in, all three going well UNDER the total.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Indiana) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60-75) are 51-13 (79.7%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* UCLA/Villanova FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 127.5

Both Villanova and UCLA are dead nuts UNDER teams.  Villanova ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and 42nd in adjusted defense.  UCLA ranks 341st in adjusted tempo and 22nd in adjusted defense.  

The UNDER is 6-1 in all UCLA games this season.  Now they could be without G Sebastian Mack (14.7 PPG), who left their last game with a toe injury and is questionable to play in this one.

Villanova is 5-5 UNDER but would be 7-3 UNDER if not for overtime.  Now the Wildcats are in real trouble offensively without their best player in Justin Moore (13.3 PPG), who suffered a knee injury in the OT loss to Kansas State last time out.  He won't be available today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* St. Mary's/Colorado State CBSSN ANNIHILATOR on St. Mary's +5.5

A lot was expected of St. Mary's coming into the season.  But after a slow start with some mixed results against a brutal schedule that ranks 40th in the country, I think the time is now to 'buy low' on the Gaels.  They have a chance to get a signature win here against a Colorado State team that is overvalued after a 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS start this season.

We saw Colorado State fail to live up to expectations last game, only beating Denver 90-80 as 20.5-pint favorites.  They have been through the gauntlet with Creighton, Colorado and Washington in their three games prior.  They won't have much left in the tank for St. Mary's, especially since they are missing two of their best players.

Colordado State is without Jalen Lake (7.7 PPG) and Josiah Strong (8.5 PPG), who both got injured recently and aren't expected to return until January.  The Rams will be short-handed until then, and now is a good time to fade them especially since they are getting a lot of hype with their unbeaten record.

Colorado State is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 home games following three or more consecutive overs.  The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after forcing 11 or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games.  St. Mary's is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  Bet St. Mary's Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -3.5

Porter Moser is building a juggernaut at Oklahoma like he did at Loyola-Chicago before.  The fruits of his labor are paying off this season as the Sooners are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They have six home wins all by 21 points or more, plus impressive neutral court wins over both Iowa (79-67) and USC (72-70).

This won't be a home game but it might as well be played in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  They take on an Arkansas team that just hasn't fare well at all away from home.  The Razorbacks are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season.  They only beat Stanford by 3 as 6.5-point favorites, were upset by 5 by Memphis and were crushed by 15 by North Carolina.  The Razorbacks are getting too much respect for their recent upset home win over Duke.

Arkansas is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Razorbacks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. explosive offensive teams scoring 84 or more points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Grand Canyon +5.5

Grand Canyon is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Antelopes are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  They beat San Diego State and San Francisco already this season.  And now they will give Liberty all they can handle.

Liberty is 7-2 SU & 6-2 ATS and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers from what they did against some soft competition.  When they stepped up in class they lost 83-58 to Florida Atlantic and didn't look like they belonged at all.  They followed that up with a 76-67 upset loss to Charleston.

Liberty is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games with a total set of 140 to 149.9 points.  Grand Canyon is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game.  Bryce Drew is 16-7 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Antelopes.  Drew is 9-2 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game as their head coach.  Bet Grand Canyon Saturday.

15* Indiana/Auburn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7

The Indiana Hoosiers have been impressive this season.  They are 7-1 with their only loss coming against defending national champion Connecticut.  They have been very impressive in their last three games beating Harvard by 13 as 7-point favorites on a neutral, topping Maryland by 12 as 2-point home favorites and upsetting Michigan 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs.

Auburn is 5-2 this season but none of the five wins were that impressive as they came against overmatched competition.  They also lost 69-64 at Appalachian State as a 7.5-point favorite and have been favored all seven games, so they have been overvalued.  They lost 88-82 to Baylor on a neutral in the opener.

This one will be played on a neutral as well.  Auburn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games away from home following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Bruce Pearl is 4-12 ATS after forcing the last opponent to commit 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Auburn.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Kings/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -120

The Phoenix Suns will be without three starters in Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen tonight.  Devin Booker is good, but he's not good enough to beat the Sacramento Kings on his own.  The Kings should be much bigger favorites tonight given those injuries for the Suns.

The Kings are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games.  Sacramento is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games following a home loss.  Phoenix is 1-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Thunder OVER 235.5

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Warriors.  They have combined for at least 237 points in all seven meetings.  They have averaged 254.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is nearly 19 points more than this 235.5-point total.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 240.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are scoring 117.2 points per game on 48.7% shooting and allowing 125.4 points per game on 50.4% shooting this season.

Now they face a red hot Nets team that is scoring 123.0 points per game in winning six of their last seven games overall.  The Wizards have scored at least 120 points in five of their last six games, and they have allowed 130 or more points in five of their last six as well.

Washington is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Washington is 8-1 OVER following an ATS win this season.  The Wizards are 8-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/76ers OVER 241

The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers are both dead nuts OVER teams.  The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.  The 76ers rank 2nd in offensive rating and are scoring 120.6 points per game this season.  The Hawks are scoring 122.6 points per game and allowing 122.3 points per game.

The 76ers won 126-116 for 242 combined points in their first meeting with the Hawks this season.  And neither team shot the lights out as the Hawks shot 44.9% and the 76ers 48.9%.  So we have some room for improvement here on the shooting front in the rematch for both teams.

Philadelphia is a perfect 7-0 OVER with a total of 230 or higher this season.  Philadelphia is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 Friday night home games.  The 76ers are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games vs. terrible defensive teams allowing 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pelicans/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 229.5

Teams are trying a lot harder on defense in these tournament games, especially these winner-take-all games.  We saw that last time out with the Lakers as they beat the Suns 106-103 for just 209 combined points.  I think we see it even more now that we are down to the semifinals.

The semifinals will be playing on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, NV.  These players aren't familiar with this court and the shooting sight lines will be different for them.  It will take some time to adjust, and I think that will help us cash this UNDER ticket as well.

The Lakers rank 9th in defensive rating and just 24th in offensive rating.  They have been much better defensively since getting healthy, and the same can be said for the Pelicans.  The Lakers have held their last two opponents to 103 and 97 points.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The Pelicans have allowed 114 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games overall.

New Orleans is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 games with a total of 230 or higher.  The Pelicans are 23-11 UNDER in their last 34 games when playing on two days' rest.  New Orleans is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPNU No-Brainer on UNDER 156

The Iowa State Cyclones have been one of the best defensive teams in the country since TJ Otzelberger took over.  They rank 9th in the entire country in adjusted defense to this point.  They don't allow anything in transition ranking 340th in average length of opponents possessions.  The Cyclones will control the tempo playing at home.

Iowa's offense has huge home/road splits under Fran McCaffery.  They don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home.  That was in display against Purdue last time out as the Boilermakers held them to just 68 points.  The Cyclones will have similar success in slowing them down.  Iowa State also has inconsistent shooting again this season.

The last two meetings between Iowa and Iowa State have seen just 131 and 126 combined points.  Iowa is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games after winning two of its last three games.  Iowa State is 26-11 UNDER in its last 37 non-conference games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK

The Denver Nuggets are just kind of going through the motions right now after winning the NBA title last year.  With that title comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to.  The Nuggets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

The Los Angeles Clippers have gotten healthy and played up to their potential here in recent weeks with their loaded roster.  They are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with wins over the Warriors, Kings and Mavericks in their last three victories.

Now the Clippers have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season with the Nuggets.  They only lost by 3 in Denver with a fully healthy Nuggets team.  But they were upset as 10.5-point home favorites when they took the short-handed Nuggets lightly.  They won't be taking them lightly tonight wanting revenge.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +2.5

Not much was expected of the Minnesota Golden Gophers coming into this season which has made them an undervalued commodity.  The Gophers are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS this season with their three losses coming to Missouri by 2 as 2.5-point dogs, to San Francisco by 18 as 5-point road dogs and to Ohio State by 10 as 13-point road dogs.

The Gophers have been particularly tough at home going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS with their lone loss coming to Missouri by 2 after blowing a 20-point lead in the 2H.  Home-court advantage is huge in the Big Ten Conference in particular.

Nebraska has played seven of its first eight games at home this season with the lone neutral court game coming against Oregon State.  The Huskers are coming off their first loss of the season, a 60-89 blowout home loss to Creighton.  Now they hit the road for the first time this season, and they should not be favored over Minnesota.  The Huskers have benefited from playing the 355th-ranked schedule out of 362 teams in the entire country.

Nebraska is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Huskers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or lower.  Bet Minnesota Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Brooklyn Nets +4

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 10-9 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in their 19 games this season.  They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with the two losses coming by a combined 3 points.

One of those losses came 145-147 in Atlanta on November 22nd, so you can bet they will be out for revenge against the Hawks tonight.  The Hawks won't have Jalen Johnson (14.1 PPG, 42.5% 3-pointers) this time around as he is out with injury.

While the Nets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA, the Hawks are one of the most overrated.  They have gone 9-10 SU & 5-14 ATS in their 19 games this season and play zero defense.  The Hawks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have really struggled since losing Johnson with their last three losses all coming by double-digits and their lone win coming by 2 points over the lowly Spurs.

Atlanta is 1-8 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher this season.  The Hawks are 1-8 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or better this season.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -4

The Cleveland Cavaliers are finally healthy with the Big 4 of Mitchell, Garland, Allen and Mobley and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are laying too short of a number here at home against the Orlando Magic tonight.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic.  They just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 101-129 road loss at Brooklyn last time out.  I always like fading teams the game after having a significant winning streak snapped because there always tends to be a hangover effect.  They aren't as motivated any more because they don't have a winning streak to protect.  But they are still getting a ton of respect due to winning nine of their last 10.

Cleveland owns Orlando, going 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings with both home wins coming by double-digits.  Cleveland is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Orlando with all four wins coming by 6 points or more and three by double-digits.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hofstra/Iona OVER 148.5

Hofstra is an elite offensive team scoring 84.9 points per game on 49.4% shooting including 40.1% from 3-point range.  Iona has been pretty good offensively this season as well scoring 75.0 points per game including 37.4% from 3-point range.  Hofstra ranks 22nd in 3-point percentage while Iona ranks 51st.

A quick look at the recent head-to-head history shows there is value with the OVER.  Indeed, the OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.  Iona and Hofstra have combined for at least 149 points in each of their last five meetings.  They have combined for 161, 156 and 156 points in their three meetings over the past three seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns want revenge from two narrow losses to the Lakers by a combined 8 points already this season.  They lost 95-100 as 6.5-point road dogs on October 26th and 122-119 as 2-point home favorites on November 10th.  There will get their revenge tonight with an outright victory.

The difference is that the Suns did not have Devin Booker for either of those first two meetings due to injury.  Booker means everything to this team averaging 27.9 points per game, 8.4 assists per game and 5.8 boards per game.  When he and KD (31.0 PPG) have been on the court at the same time, this team has been dangerous.

The Lakers are 0-8 ATS following an ATS win this season.  They are actually getting outscored by 16.4 points per game in this spot this season.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -11

Scott Drew has yet another juggernaut at Baylor.  The Bears are 8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as they have been grossly undervalued.  They have beaten the likes of Auburn and Florida on a neutral already this season to test themselves, so they will be ready for Seton Hall tonight.

Seton Hall is 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS this season.  They failed to cover against St. Peter's and Northeastern in lackluster home wins by 11 and 13 points, respectively.  They tested themselves on a neutral against both USC and Iowa and did not fare well.  They lost by 8 to USC and by 13 to Iowa.  Now this will be their first true road game of the season against the best opponent they have faced by far, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Baylor has 10 days off after this so they should be fully focused.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after three straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Drew is 19-7 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Baylor.  Bet Baylor Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Grand Canyon +2.5

Grand Canyon is 6-1 this season and one of the best mid-majors in the country.  They are ready to take down a team like San Diego State, which came into this season way overvalued after making the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year.  They remain overvalued tonight as road favorites over Grand Canyon.

San Diego State is 7-1 SU but 2-5 ATS this season.  They are fortunate to have escaped with a bunch of close wins over bad teams.  They lost at BYU by 9 in and only beat Cal San Diego by 1 as 13.5-point road favorites in their only two true road games.  They also failed to cover in a 12-point win over Long Beach State, a 3-point win over Washington and a 9-point win over California.  They only beat Division II Point Loma by 20 at home prior to that 1-point escape at Cal San Diego.  Their luck runs out tonight.

Brian Dutcher is 2-10 ATS in road games off a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of San Diego State.  Bryce Drew is 36-19 ATS in home games off a home win as a head coach.  Bet Grand Canyon Tuesday.

15* Providence/Oklahoma ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4.5

Porter Moser is building a juggernaut at Oklahoma like he did at Loyola-Chicago before.  The fruits of his labor are paying off this season as the Sooners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season.  They have five home wins all by 21 points or more, plus impressive neutral court wins over both Iowa (79-67) and USC (72-70).

Providence is 7-1 this season as well but has played five games at home against weak competition.  The two neutral court games weren't impressive at all as they lost outright to Kansas State and only beat Georgia by 7.  Both those teams aren't very good this season.  This will be by far their toughest test yet, and it will be their first true road game as well.

Providence is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite.  Oklahoma is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

20* FAU/Illinois ESPN No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic -2

Florida Atlantic made the Final 4 last year and brought back all 5 starters from that team.  You would think this team would have been overvalued given that's the case, but it has been completely opposite.  FAU has been exceeding expectations again going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS with impressive wins over Butler, Loyola-Chicago, Texas A&M, VA Tech, Liberty and Charleston.

FAU ranks 7th in adjusted offense and 37th in adjusted defense.  The Owls have played the 52nd-toughest schedule in the country.  And the strength of schedule discrepancy between them and Illinois (345th) is a big reason I'm taking the Owls tonight.

Illinois is 6-1 this season but against a weak schedule.  They lost their toughest game, a 71-64 home loss to Marquette.  They have a road win over Rutgers, which is way down this season.  And their five home wins have come against teams that are ranked 145th or worse, including four against teams ranked 274th or worse.

FAU is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Owls are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games following three consecutive non-conference games.  Oddsmakers just can't catch up to how good this team really is, and they failed to do so again tonight.  Bet Florida Atlantic Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Jaguars ESPN No-Brainer on Jacksonville -7

BONUS TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 8-3 this season and a legitimate contender for the top seed in the AFC.  They have gotten their offense going coming out of the bye scoring 34 points in a 34-14 win over the Titans at home and then 24 points in a 24-21 road win at Houston.  They also had 445 total yards on the Texans and should have scored more, getting stopped at the 1-yard line right before halftime and also missing a FG.

Now the Jaguars will hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the entire NFL right now in the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals are allowing 389.0 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  They just allowed the Pittsburgh Steelers to top 400 yards, which is remarkable considering Pittsburgh had gone 58 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.

That was a very misleading final against the Steelers that is keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals 421 to 222, or by 199 total yards.  They only won 16-10 and should have won by more.  They dropped a wide open TD among other fluky mistakes.

The Bengals allowed 34 points and 405 yards to the Ravens the week prior and 30 points and 544 yards to the Texans the week before.  The Jaguars will be able to name their number on this soft Cincinnati defense, and the Bengals won't be able to keep up without Joe Burrow.  It was an ugly showing for Jake Browning in his first start in place of Burrow as he led the Bengals to just 222 total yards and 10 points.  It won't go any better against one of the top defenses in the NFL in the Jaguars, who allow just 20.5 points per game and 342.4 yards per game this season.

Jacksonville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after covering the spread in three of its last four games.  The Bengals are 1-25 SU in road-neutral night games over the last 25 years.  They are on a 16-game losing streak in this spot with their last win in Philadelphia in 2012.  Zac Taylor is 4-20 SU as a head coach of the Bengals without Joe Burrow as his QB.

Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on North Dakota State -2.5

I love the spot for North Dakota State tonight.  They want revenge from a 78-65 road loss at San Jose State in their last game on November 27th.  They have been thinking about that game for a week and have had the last six days off to rest and prepare to beat the Spartans in the rematch at home this time around.

San Jose State doesn't have that same luxury.  They have actually played two road games since that home win over North Dakota State.  The Spartans lost at Cal Poly outright as 9-point favorites on November 29th, lost by 17 at Montana as 3-point dogs on November 2nd, and now they have just one day to get ready for San Jose State.  They will be playing in their 4th different city in 8 days and are running on fumes right now.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bison.

North Dakota State has played a road-heavy schedule this season with six of their first eight games away from home.  They did beat Montana 78-69 as 8.5-point road dogs, which is the same team that just beat San Jose State by 17.  In their two home games they rolled to 27 and 29-point victories.  I think they roll again tonight given the revenge factor and the massive rest and preparation advantage.  Bet North Dakota State Monday.

20* Celtics/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on OVER 238

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 16-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating.

The Boston Celtics are more of an OVER team this season.  They rank 9th in offensive rating and are scoring 116.7 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  They hung 155 points on the Pacers in their lone meeting with them this season in a 155-104 win that saw 259 combined points.  I think this rematch will be a lot closer, but it will also sail OVER this 238-point total.

Indiana games have seen at least 237 combined points in 16 of their 18 games this season.  Both Kristaps Porzingis and Tyrese Haliburton sat out their last game for their respective teams.  I think that was caution more than anything, and both will likely play tonight.  But it won't matter either way I like the OVER.  The Pacers won 144-129 at Miami without Haliburton and the Celtics won 125-119 at home against the 76ers without Porzingis.  

Indiana is 13-0 OVER when revenging a loss this season.  The Pacers are 20-2 OVER in their last 22 games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  Indiana is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco PK

I love the spot for the San Francisco 49ers this week.  They have extra rest after playing last Thursday while also recently getting a bye.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season and showing what they can do when healthy, going 3-0 since the bye while outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 92-30, or by an average of over 20 pints per game.

Now the 49ers have their sights set on revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  Brock Purdy got hurt in the first half of that game against the Eagles and it really changed the game.  To a man, the 49ers believe they would have won that game if he finished the game healthy.  Now they'll be out to prove it.

The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet.  They just went to OT against the Bills last week in a downpour.  They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior.  And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior.  So this will be their 4th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL, and they have a rematch with the Cowboys on deck next week.

The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out.  They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills last week.  They gave up 505 total yards to the Bills last week.  They lost DT Fletcher Cox and LB Zach Cunningham to injury in that game, and both are very questionable to play this week and missed practice on Wednesday.  OT Lane Johnson is one of their most important players and is questionable to play as well.

The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until last week.  Well the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks.  They beat the Commanders four games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys three games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs two games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills last week despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.

As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in four consecutive games and won them all.  They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score.  I think their luck runs out this week against a 49ers team that wants it more, is the better team and is the much healthier team.

The 49ers have elite numbers this season scoring 28.2 points per game and allowing 15.5 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per gmae.  They are outgaining opponents by 91 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.5 yards per play on the season.  The Eagles are now only outgaining opponnets by 23 yards per game and 0.2 yards per play.  They are much closer to an average team than their record would indicate simply due to their luck in close games.

The 49ers are 8-0 when they've had Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams on the field at the same time this season with all eight wins coming by 7 points or more and seven of those eight wins by 13 points or more.  They improve to 9-0 with Samuel and Williams on the field this week.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Illinois State -1.5

It's time to 'sell high' on Murray State off their upset home win over Bradly as 3.5-point dogs.  Bradley was looking ahead to their game against Indiana State.  Murray State has not been good beating Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites, losing to WKU by 5 as 1-point home favorites, losing to App State by 10 as 2.5-point neutral dogs and losing to UNC-Wilmington by 2 as 5.5-point neutral dogs.

Now Murray State will finally have to play their first true road game this season.  Illinois State has only played two home games this season and won both.  They also won a true road game at Illinois Chicago outright by 5 as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  That was a very impressive win.  They upset Long Beach State by 9 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral as well.  I like what I've seen from this team enough to know they will cover as a short home favorite here.

Murray State is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games following an ATS win.  The Redbirds are the way better defensive team holding opponent 9.1 points per game below their season averages this year.  Murray State only holds opponents to 1.1 points per game below their season averages.  Bet Illinois State Sunday.

15* Clemson/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -1.5

The Clemson Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today.  They are coming off a 85-77 upset road win as 8-point underdogs at Alabama on November 28th.  Now I expect them to fall flat on their faces at Pittsburgh this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory after getting upset by Missouri at home as 7-point favorites last time out.  So this is also a 'buy low' spot on the Panthers off an upset loss, and a 'sell high' spot on the Tigers off an upset win.

Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its lat 25 road games following a road win.  Brad Brownell is 2-9 ATS in road games off a road win as the coach of Clemson.  Pittsburgh is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  The Panthers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Jeff Capel is 18-7 ATS vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Panthers will hand the Tigers their first loss of the season today.  Bet Pittsburgh Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Saints OVER 44.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and a very leaky defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions, so I jumped on this OVER 44.5 early in the week when the lines came out.

In their last four games the Lions scored 26 points and had 486 total yards against the Raiders, scored 41 points and had 533 yards against the Chargers, scored 31 points and had 338 yards against the Bears and scored 22 points and had 464 yards against the Packers.  They are pretty much fully healthy on offense and showing how good they can be when that's the case.

But the Lions have been a disaster on defense over the last three weeks.  They have allowed 31.0 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing the Bears, Packers and Chargers, so it's not like they have faced any elite offenses.  They lost LB Alex Anzalone against the Packers and he is doubtful to play Sunday.  Even the New Orleans Saints are going to hang a big number on the Lions this week.

Injuries have really decimated this New Orleans defense.  They were already without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore, then they lost DE Cameron Jordan last week against the Falcons and he is their best defensive lineman.  Jordan is very questionable to play in this game after not practicing all week.  S Marcus Maye and LB Pete Werner have both been ruled out as well.

The Saints allowed 27 points and 388 total yards to a mediocre Vikings offense and 24 points and 396 total yards to a mediocre Falcons offense in their last two games.  They have now allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against the Bears, who turned it over five times or would have scored more.

The OVER is 6-2 in Detroit's last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of hose eight games.  The OVER is 3-2 in Saints last five games overall with at least 39 combined points in all five, and 46 or more combined points in three of the five.  It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in New Orleans.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos/Texans OVER 45

It has taken a couple miracles to keep the last two Houston games under the total.  I know because I've been on the over in both of them, and both losses were bad beats.  I think there's value in the OVER in a Houston game this week as a result.

Houston and Arizona scored 31 combined points in the 1st half two weeks ago.  But they only had 6 points after halftime due to CJ Stroud throwing three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line, and the Cardinals turning it over on downs three times in Arizona territory.

Last week, Houston and Jacksonville combined for over 800 yards of offense.  But there were three missed FG's and the Jaguars were stopped at the 1-yard line to finish on 45 combined points and under the closing 48-point total.  I have to think Houston is going to start cashing in more scoring opportunities, and Denver will get their fair share of points this week as well.

CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now.  The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game.  Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday.  They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive.  They should have all four this week.

Russell Wilson is clearly more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense now than he was at the beginning of the season.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games and an average of 24.5 points per game during this stretch despite facing four good defenses in the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns.  This Houston defense that ha s allowed at least 24 points in three of their last four is actually a big step down in competition for Wilson and company.  But the Texans will get their points, and Wilson will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout in perfect conditions inside the dome in Houston.

 I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for.  The Broncos have benefited from forcing a total of 16 turnovers during their five-game winning streak.  But the season-long stats show this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos allow 25.5 points per game, 388.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, with the latter two numbers being the worst marks in the league.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Houston) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers went 58 games in a row without gaining 400 yards.  It spanned from Matt Canada's first game as offensive coordinator to his last.  Fittingly, Canada was fired last week, and the Steelers topped 400 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals.  They used the middle of the field a lot more with TE Pat Freirmuth and got their running game going, which has quietly been dominant in recent weeks.

The Steelers have rushed for at least 153 yards in four consecutive games and an average of 174 yards per game to take some pressure off Kenny Pickett.  He had one of the best games of his career against the Bengals, going 24-of-33 passing for 278 yards without an interception in the win.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 200 yards and should have won by more as it was a misleading final in a 16-10 win.  I think that misleading final is keeping this line shorter than it should be.

Now the Steelers get to go up against a similarly poor defense in the Arizona Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals gave up 419 yards to the Texans two weeks ago and 37 points and 457 total yards to the Rams last week.  They should have allowed more points to the Texans as CJ Stroud threw three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line to take points off the board.  That was a misleading final and they were fortunate to cover the 5.5-point spread in a 5-point loss.

The Steelers should be able to run the ball at will against an Arizona defense that allows 140 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They gave up 228 rushing yards to the Rams last week and have allowed at least 111 rushing yards in seven consecutive games.  They just lost their top LB in Kyzir White to a season-ending injury against the Texans and have a ton more injuries that are hampering them defensively.

The offense doesn't look any better with Kyler Murray at QB than it did with Josh Dobbs.  They managed just 16 points against the Texans two weeks ago and 14 points against the Rams last week. Three key playmakers in WR Marquise Brown, WR Michael Wilson and TE Trey McBride all missed practice Wednesday and are questionable.  Speaking of questionable, the Cardinals have questionable motivation the rest of the way and would be better off trying to tank for a top pick.  They may do so without even trying as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Steelers have a lot more to play for and are trying to win a division title.  They trail the Ravens by just one game in the division and have the tiebreaker over them.  They have five straight very winnable games coming up and want to take advantage.  I think with new life on offense and an already dominant defense, the sky is the limit for this team.  Plus, they should get S Minkah Fitzpatrick back from injury as he returned to practice this week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.  Mike Tomlin does a good job of getting his players to take every game seriously the later in the season it gets.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They probably currently have the worst defense in the NFL after trading away two of their best defensive linemen in Sweat to the Bears and Young to the 49ers.  They also have a ton of injuries in the secondary that are making them dreadful on that end right now.

Indeed, the Commanders have allowed 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to Tommy DeVito and the Giants and 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys in their last three games coming in.  It's safe to say this No. 1 ranked Miami offense is going to hang a big number on them this week.

Miami averages 30.8 points per game, 430.5 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and now they get their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury this week.  He averages 11.8 yards per carry with 461 yards and 5 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog last week in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  Sam Howell has been one of the most impressive rookies in the NFL for Washington and actually leads the league in passing yards.  

Howell has thrown 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions this season while completing 67% of his passes and averaging 278.3 passing yards per game.  He has also rushed for 222 yards and three TD while averaging 6.2 per carry.  He is a walking turnover though, so expect some easy scores by the Dolphins due to those turnovers.  But Howell will keep coming, and that's what you need when backing an OVER is the trailing team capable of scoring quickly in comeback mode.  We have that here on both sides.

Miami is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% or higher completions.  Mike McDaniel is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of the Dolphins.  Ron Rivera is 30-12 OVER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson.  It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.

Indeed, the Blazers have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs and won outright at Cleveland 103-95 as 12-point dogs.

The Blazers aren't just covering they are destroying these spreads.  They have covered their last four games by a combined 62 points.  Now they are somehow underdogs to the Utah Jazz, who are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.

It's no wonder the Jazz are struggling going 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall.  It's also no wonder their offense is broken as they have scored 105 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 90-101 loss at Minnesota which followed up a 91-105 loss at Memphis.

Utah is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

20* Louisville/Florida State ACC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49

Florida State losing star QB Jordan Travis in a meaningless game against North Alabama is one of the biggest tragedies in college football this season.  They were a legit playoff contender with him, but now they may not make it even if they beat Louisville.  I don't know if they are going to win the game, but I do know they won't be very good on offense against Louisville with backup QB Tate Rodemaker.

We got to see how they are going to play moving forward with him in a 24-15 win over Florida in an absolute defensive battle last week.  That's a Florida team with a terrible defense, too.  The Seminoles managed just 224 total yards against Florida while limiting the Gators to 232 yards.  They shortened the game running just 57 offensive snaps while Florida ran only 60.

Florida State is going to have to lean on a defense that has been one of the best in the country this season.  The Seminoles allow just 16.8 points per game, 316 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They will be up against a Louisville team that also relies heavily on defense, allowing just 20.0 points per game, 317 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.

The Seminoles aren't going to let Rodemaker lose the game for them.  They are going to try and run the football.  Well, the Cardinals are great against the run, allowing 99 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  Louisville wants to throw the football, and FSU is great against the pass, allowing just 47.7% completions, 175 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt.

There is better than a 50% chance of rain at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, NC for this one that could also help keep this one UNDER the total.  When the stakes are this high, I usually look to back the UNDER, and this matchup definitely fits the bill.

Florida State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher, and 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Louisville is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after a game where they committed three or more turnovers.  They will be much more careful with the ball this week after a fluky 38-31 loss to Kentucky in which turnovers led to easy scores as they held the Wildcats to just 293 total yards for the game.  That misleading final also has this total inflated this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers want revenge from their 132-142 loss at Miami on Thursday.  They don't have to wait long to get their revenge as they play again here just two days later Saturday.  The difference is the Heat will be missing their best defender and arguably their most important player in Bam Adebayo for the rematch.

While the Pacers will be locked in wanting revenge, the Heat will relax a little not being overly excited to try and beat this team again.  I think things will come even easier for the Pacers than they did in that first meeting without Adebayo.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive rating this season and 1st in adjusted tempo.  Miami doesn't want to try to defend these guys again.

Miami is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 41-11 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat OVER 240

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 15-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 127.9 points per game and allowing 125.8 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.

The Miami Heat combined for 255 points with Milwaukee and then 274 points with Indiana in their last two home games.  We only need 240-plus combined points to cash this OVER in the rematch, which is 34 points less than what they just combined for on Thursday.  We'll get 240-plus tonight, especially with Miami's best defender in Bam Adebayo out for the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons not winning a single game in November has made some headlines lately.  Their 17-game losing streak dates back to October 30th.  With this media attention comes an opportunity for us to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They will be desperate to end this skid tonight.

The Pistons were competitive in their 112-118 loss at New York last time out as 14.5-point underdogs, and they have been more competitive at home than on the road.  Asking the Cavaliers to win this game by double-digits on the road to beat us is asking too much.

The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 33 to Miami at home, lost by 6 to the Lakers at home, beat the Raptors by just 3 at home and lost outright to the Blazers by 8 as 12-point home favorites.  They certainly aren't playing well enough to warrant being this big of a favorite on the road tonight.

Detroit is as healthy as they have been all season with both Ausar Thompson and Bojan Bogdanovic upgraded to probable tonight.  The time is now to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Toledo -3.5

I love the spot for Toledo today.  After opening the season with blowout home wins over Detroit 94-60 as 15.5-point favorites and LA-Lafayette 87-78 as 7.5-point favorites, they have been on the road since November 11th against some great teams.

Toledo upset Wright State 78-77 as 2.5-point road dogs, then hung with New Mexico in a 92-84 loss, UC-Irvine in a 77-71 loss and Indiana State in a 76-74 loss all on neutral courts.  All four of those teams rank in the Top 120 in the country in KenPom, including the last three 76th or higher.  It's safe to say Toledo is going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home for the first time in three weeks.

While Toledo has played the 47th-toughest schedule in the country, George Mason has faced the 260th.  That's a big reason GMU is 6-1 this season and overvalued now as a result.  Five of the seven games came at home against Monmouth (231), Austin Peay (272), Cornell (110), East Carolina (209) and NJIT (352).  They only beat South Dakota State (124) by 2 on a neutral and were upset by Charlotte (134) by 5 on a neutral.  Not only will this be the first true road game for George Mason, but it will also be the best opponent they have faced yet this season.  I don't expect it to go well for them.

Toledo is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite or PK and the Rockets have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 120-114 loss at Golden State on Thursday.  Now they get the Warriors at home in the rematch so they don't have to wait long to get their revenge.

The Clippers were at a big disadvantage in that game at Golden State because they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 131-117 road win at Sacramento the night before.  They didn't have much left in the tank and were still competitive.  Now, after having Friday off, I expect a much better effort from them in the rematch.

The Warriors won't be nearly as motivated to beat this team again.  Plus, the Warriors are missing two key players in Chris Paul and Gary Payton II, and Andrew Wiggins is questionable.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are fully healthy for this one and primed for a big effort.

The Warriors are 20-36 ATS in their last 56 road games.  Golden State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Oakland -5

Oakland is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its eight games this season and remains grossly undervalued.  You could tell this team was going to be good when they gave two good Big Ten opponents all they could handle in their first two games of the season.

The Golden Grizzlies only lost by 6 at Ohio State as 19.5-point dogs and by 11 at Illinois as 24-point dogs.  They blasted Bowling Green 81-62 in their lone home game this season as 2.5-point favorites.  They only lost by 8 to Drake on a neutral as 9-point dogs, upset Loyola-Marymount by 5 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall by 7 as 2.5-point dogs.  They then upset Xavier as 15-point road dogs and avoided the letdown by crushing Detroit by 15 as 6.5-point road favorites.

Now Oakland is back home for only the 2nd time all season.  Now they will have no problem getting back motivated to play a conference game against IPFW, who looks like one of their biggest threats to win this conference.  However, IPFW's 7-1 start is more fool's gold than anything because they have played such a soft schedule.

Indeed, while Oakland has played the 27th toughest schedule int he country, IPFW has played the 333rd-ranked schedule out of 363 teams.  That's the reason they were 7-1 more than anything.  In their toughest game this season, they lost 76-60 as 13.5-point dogs at San Francisco.  I would argue Oakland is the best team they will have played yet this season, and it won't go well for them.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/Bradley UNDER 150

Indiana State and Bradley are two of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  Both are off to 6-1 starts and both play great defense.  Bradley will control the tempo playing at home today ranking 270th in adjusted tempo and 78th in adjusted defense.  Indiana State ranks 114th in adjusted defense.

The head-to-head history really stood out to me in this one.  Bradley and Indiana State have now combined for 147 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150-point total.  

They played three times last year and went for 141, 145 and 119 combined points, so they are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas OVER 55

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 48 or more combined points in all nine, and 58 or more combined points in six of those.  So this total of 55 is pretty low for a game involving the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  But they have not been good defensively, allowing 29.7 points per game, 446.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play in Big 12 action this season.

The Texas Longhorns have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and average 35.4 points per game, 478.0 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Those numbers would be even better if they didn't lose QB Quinn Ewers for 2.5 games against Houston, BYU and Kansas State.

Each of the last five meetings between Oklahoma State and Texas have seen 56 or more combined points.  They have gone for 75, 56, 75, 66 and 73 combined points in the last five meetings.  As you can see, these games are sailing well OVER this 55-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout too inside the dome at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +15

Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and earned its way into the Big 12 Championship.  They are playing on house money now and would love nothing more than to ruin Texas' final season in the Big 12.  They pretty much ruined it for Oklahoma by upsetting them, and now they take their shot at the Longhorns.

This turnaround started with continuity at QB with Alan Bowman and the emergence of RB Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 TD while averaging 6.4 per carry this season.  Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471-7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  That letdown was expected.

But the Cowboys have bounced back nicely since and handled their business with a 43-30 road win as 7-point favorites at Houston with 514 total yards and a 40-34 (OT) win over BYU in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained BYU 503 to 327, or by 176 total yards.  But BYU took advantage of some early turnovers and jumped out to a 24-6 lead.  Oklahoma State could have folded, instead they fought back to take the lead with all the pressure on them of trying to win the game to get to the Big 12 title game.  They fell behind in the 1st OT, but then scored two touchdowns in a row to come up clutch and the defense held in the 2nd OT.  They have to be feeling like they can overcome anything after that comeback, which has been the story of their season.

Texas is overvalued off the blowout win over Texas Tech last week.  But nothing has come easy for the Longhorns outside of that home win plus another home win over BYU down the stretch.  In fact, five of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less, and if not for a blocked PAT returned for a TD in the 10-point win over Iowa State, it would be five games decided by 7 points or fewer.  That includes narrows road wins over Houston by 7 and TCU by 3, two of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They have been great at home but it has been a different story on the road, and this game will be played on a neutral at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Each of the last six meetings between Texas and Oklahoma State have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, Oklahoma State is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings as underdogs with three outright upsets.  Texas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State by more than 7 points in any of the last eight meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the Cowboys pertaining to this inflated 15-point spread.

Speaking of 8-0 systems, Oklahoma State is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season and actually outscoring these teams by 4.4 points per game on average.  Mike Gundy has a way of getting his teams to play up to their level of their competition.  The Longhorns have all the pressure on them here of trying to win the Big 12 and make the four-team playoff.  I'll gladly side with the Cowboys playing with nothing to lose.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Purdue/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 138

Northwestern is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 357th out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home tonight, which will be played at a snail's pace against Purdue.  Northwestern and their opponents have combined for 137 or fewer points in five of their six games this season.

Purdue has played a little faster this season but their offense still runs through big man Zach Edey.  It also helps that the Boilermakers are vastly improved defensively this season ranking 5th in the country in adjusted defense.  Nothing will come easy for Northwestern in this one.

Purdue and Northwestern have combined for 145 or fewer points in 16 consecutive meetings.  Northwestern is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 home games with a total set of 130 to 139.5.  Purdue is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games after three straight games forcing 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Boilermakers are 68-37 UNDER in their last 105 road games with a total set of 130 to 139.5.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 232.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy and are humming on offense right now.  They have scored at least 115 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They rank 9th in pace this season and like to get up and down.

Now they face another team that likes to get up and down in the San Antonio Spurs.  The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  They are a dead nuts OVER team as a result.  They just combined for 292 points with the Hawks last night in a 147-145 loss.  Now they will be on tired legs and won't be playing much defense tonight.

The OVER is 13-5 in Spurs' 18 games this season.  The OVER is 15-4 in Spurs last 19 games vs. division opponents.  San Antonio is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games vs. a marginal winning team (51-60%).  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Orlando Magic have been the most profitable team to back in the NBA this season at 13-5 SU & 15-3 ATS.  But with that fast start comes lofty expectations that are going to be tough to live up to in the immediate future.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic tonight.

If the Magic were going to have a letdown, it would be tonight.  That's because they just beat this same Washington Wizards team 139-120 as 9.5-point home favorites on Wednesday.  How motivated are they going to be to beat this same team again?  The answer is not very.

The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge.  The Magic aren't going to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting.  They shot 60.7% from the floor and an unsustainable 17-of-27 (63%) from 3-point range.

The Wizards have been more competitive on the road than they have been at home this season.  In their six road games prior to losing to the Magic, they went 5-1 ATS upsetting Detroit by 19 as 3-point road dogs, only losing by 3 at Milwaukee as 14-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Charlotte as 4-point dogs, only losing by 4 at Toronto as 8-point dogs, only losing by 8 at Brooklyn as 7-point dogs and upsetting Charlotte by 16 as 2.5-point dogs.  So the 19-point loss at Orlando was the aberration, and it was only due to the Magic shooting an unsustainable percentage.  

Plays on any team (Washington) - off a blowout loss by 15 points or more against an opponent that is off two straight games where both teams scored 115 or more are 55-18 (75.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* New Mexico State/Liberty C-USA Championship No-Brainer on New Mexico State +10.5

The New Mexico State Aggies are 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Hawaii.  They have pulled off five outright upsets as underdogs during this stretch, including a 31-10 win at Auburn as 25-point dogs.  They avoided the letdown last week and beat Jacksonville State 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs, which was just as impressive.

Now the Aggies are once again catching too many points against Liberty.  They are a completely different team than the one that lost 33-17 at Liberty as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  That was a 23-17 game at halftime and got out of hand after intermission.  Liberty controlled the ball with 38 minutes compared to 22 for New Mexico State and ran 27 more plays.  It was actually pretty close from a yards per play perspective.  Liberty averaged 6.8 yards per play in that game while New Mexico State averaged 6.8 yards per play as well.

Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 61.2% of his passes with a 23-to-8 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 scores on 5.3 per carry.  Pavia gives them a chance to win every game he plays in, and he and the Aggies here are a dangerous, revenge-minded team in this game.  Liberty has all the pressure on them trying to cap off an unbeaten season and possibly a New Year's 6 Bowl.  New Mexico State is playing on house money.

I think the Aggies can make the adjustments to stop the run this time around by stacking the box.  New Mexico State's defensive line has played much better down the stretch.  They allow 127 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season.  They held Auburn to 65 rushing yards on 28 attempts and Jacksonville State to 85 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their last two games.  That's really impressive when you consider Jacksonville State ranks 3rd in the country averaging 231.8 rushing yards per game and Auburn ranks 15th at 196.3 rushing yards per game.  It's safe to say the Aggies are ready to stop the run.  Bet New Mexico State Friday.

15* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5

I like looking to back the UNDER in these Big Ten games.  Maryland is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 268th in the country in adjusted tempo, 125th in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense.  Against the three respectable teams Maryland has played, they combined for 97 points with Villanova, 129 with UAB and 125 with Davidson.

Indiana doesn't exactly look to push the tempo too much ranking 135th in that department while ranking 76th in adjusted defense.  The Hoosiers could be without their best guard in Xavier Johnson (10.5 PPG), who suffered a hamstring injury against Harvard on November 26th and did not return after playing just 13 minutes.  We've seen Indiana go for 140 or fewer combined points in four of their six games this season, and 136 or fewer in three of them.

This has been an UNDER series.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 130, 121, 138, 123 and 118 combined points.  They have averaged just 126 combined points per game in those five games, which is 11.5-point less than this 137.5-point total.  There's clearly value with the UNDER.  

Maryland is 28-14 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Maryland's last 12 road games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Maryland's last 10 road games after covering the spread in two of thier last three games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -7

FREE TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.

The Dallas Cowboys are bullies.  They beat up on bad teams and cannot seem to get over the hump against good teams.  While the Seattle Seahawks are 6-5 this season and some would consider them a good team, I consider them a bad team in their current form and another team that the Cowboys are going to beat up on.

The Cowboys are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS this season with a ridiculous seven wins by 20 points or more.  That includes 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season where they are scoring 41.0 points per game and allowing just 12.0 points per game, outscoring opponents by 29.0 points per game.

The Cowboys just blasted the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving Night while the Seahawks were losing 31-13 at home to the 49ers despite getting a Pick 6 in that game for their lone touchdown.  Their offense didn't score and has been broken the last two weeks, also managing just 16 points in a loss to the Rams.  They have a recent common opponent in the Commanders.  While the Cowboys won by 35, the Seahawks needed a last-second FG to beat Washington three weeks ago.

The Cowboys won't be taking the Seahawks lightly because they know there's a good chance that if they win this game and the Eagles lose to the 49ers this week, they'll be playing the Eagles for first place in the NFC East next week.  The Seahawks have struggled when they have stepped up in class recently with a 37-3 loss at Baltimore and that 31-13 loss to San Francisco.  Dallas is just a notch below those two teams, but it's close.

Geno Smith isn't healthy and is a below average QB as it is, and he and the Seahawks will get exposed again this week.  Smith averages under 4 yards per attempt against man-to-man defense and over 8 yards per attempt against zone this season.  Dallas runs as much man-to-man defense as any team in the NFL.

Dallas is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season.  Dak Prescott is 30-11-1 ATS in his last 42 starts as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a division game, so they don't let down in these spots.  Seattle is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Timberwolves UNDER 222

This matchup between Utah and Minnesota tonight will be played without the best offensive player for both teams.  Utah leading scorer Lauri Markkanen (23.7 PPG) and Minnesota leading scorer Anthony Edwards (26.2 PPG) are both expected to miss this game.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is even when Edwards was healthy.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating and play at a slower tempo.  They rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating even with Edwards.  Having the twin towers of Gobert and Towns plus a defensive-minded PG in Mike Conley Jr. make them a dead nuts UNDER team.

The Timberwolves have remarkably held four of their last five opponents to 103 points or fewer, which is a great feat in today's NBA.  Now they face a Jazz team that has really been struggling offensively without Markkanen, scoring 105 points or fewer in four of their last five games.

The Jazz are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall.  Minnesota beat Utah 123-95 for just 218 combined points in their first meeting this season back on November 4th.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Heat OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 127.6 points per game and allowing 124.7 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.

The Miami Heat just played another dead nuts over team in the Milwaukee Bucks last time out and the result was a 131-124 shootout loss and 255 combined points.  It will be more of the same against the Indiana Pacers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +12

The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson.  It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.

Indeed, the Blazers have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, and won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs.  Now they are once again catching too many points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The Cavaliers are coming off a 23-point win over the Hawks which has them overvalued.  They lost by 33 at home to Miami, were upset by 6 at home by the Lakers and only beat the Raptors by 3 at home in their previous three games.  It's not like they are playing well enough right now to warrant being 12-point favorites here.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -2.5

The Butler Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS this season despite facing a very tough schedule.  Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the country in Michigan State and Florida Atlantic on the road.  They only lost to FAU by 5 as 5.5-point dogs, and FAU has been blasting everyone else.

Butler handled Penn State 88-78 as a PK on a neutral and Boise State 70-56 as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral in the two games following those two losses to MSU and FAU.  Now they get a Texas Tech team that looks down this season based on results.

Texas Tech is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS in its six games this season.  The Red Raiders only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites.  They lost by 16 to Villanova on a neutral as 3.5-point dogs, and that's a Villanova team that has already been upset twice as double-digit home favorites this season.  They only beat a bad Northern Iowa team by 2 as 7-point favorites on a neutral as well.

Texas Tech is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Big East opponents.  Butler is 7-0 ATS in its last seven November home games.  Bet Butler Thursday.

20* Clippers/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -125

I had the Kings on the Money Line last night and was fortunate to cash that ticket.  The Kings came back from 24 points down to the Warriors to win 124-123.  They put everything they had into that comeback, and now they won't have anything left in the tank for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  

It is also a letdown spot for the Kings after finally beating their hated rivals in the Warriors after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them in seven games last season, and losing the first two meetings this season to the Warriors.  They wanted that win more than anything, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Clippers tonight.

The Clippers will be extra motivated to bounce back from a bad loss to the Nuggets who didn't have Nikola Jokic.  They simply thought they could show up and win that game.  The Clippers had been playing well previously going 4-1 SU in their previous five games.  They will be focused for this one, and they are healthy for pretty much the first time this season right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.

Plays against home underdogs (Sacramento) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 45-20 (69.2%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites on the money line (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss a a home favorite against an opponent that is off a home win where they scored 110 points or more are 61-20 (75.3%, +31.4 Units) since 1996.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* Colorado/Colorado State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Colorado State -2.5

Colorado State is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and currently 27th in KenPom as one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  All six wins this season have come by 8 points or more, with none being more impressive than their 69-48 win as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Creighton last time out.

Normally this would be a letdown spot for the Rams, but that's simply not the case with hated in-state rival Colorado coming to town.  The Rams have lost three consecutive meetings with the Buffaloes including a blowout road loss last season.  They want revenge, and they will get it tonight.  Colorado State has played the much tougher schedule (129th) than Colorado (251st) as well.

Colorado is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with some concerning results.  The Buffaloes only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites, and failed to cover against a rebuilding Iona team in a 17-point home win as 19-point favorites.  Their other three wins all came at home against bad teams in Towson, Grambling and Milwaukee.  This will be their first true road game of the season.

Colorado is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a win by 10 points or more.  Colorado has been one of the worst road teams in the country for several years running.  Bet Colorado State Wednesday.