15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacific +21.5

St. Mary's is in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They finally won at Gonzaga 64-62 Saturday night.  After getting that monkey off their back, their motivation to beat Pacific is going to be at zero, especially since they just beat this team 76-28 at home on January 25th just over a week ago.

Pacific shot 10-of-50 (20%) including 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3 in that blowout loss to St. Mary's.  But the Tigers have been much more competitive since that defeat.  They only lost by 9 as 24.5-point home dogs to Gonzaga, by 5 as 2.5-point home dogs to Portland and by 6 as 22-point dogs at San Francisco.  They are grossly undervalued right now due to that blowout loss to St. Mary's.

Pacific is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home dog of 10 points or more.  The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12 points per game or more after 15-plus games.  This one will be a lot closer than this line indicates simply because the Tigers want to redeem themselves and the Gaels want nothing to do with this game in a massive letdown spot.  Bet Pacific Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +3

The Utah Jazz want revenge from a 129-134 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 18th.  They are fully healthy and the fresher team right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 123-108 home win over the Bucks to improve to 16-7 SU & 17-5-1 ATS at home this season the best ATS record at home in the entire NBA.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  This rough stretch has injuries piling up with Isaiah Joe out and Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams and Cason Wallace all questionable.  One of the Thunder's biggest strengths is their depth, and that is really getting tested right now.

The Thunder needed double-OT to dispatch of the lowly Toronto Raptors as 8.5-point favorites last time out.  I don't believe they should be favored on the road tonight given how tired they are and the fact that they now have to go into altitude in Salt Lake City and play an elite home team in the Jazz.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing with double revenge this season.  The Jazz are 12-2 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Plays on underdogs (Utah) - after scoring 115 points or more in two consecutive games against an opponent that scored 135 points or more last game are 46-14 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +3.5

Minnesota is the best covering team in the entire country going 14-7 SU & 18-3 ATS.  That includes 12-3 SU & 14-1 ATS at home this season.  The Golden Gophers continue to lack the respect they deserve as 3.5-point home dogs to the Michigan State Spartans tonight.

Minnesota wants revenge from a 76-66 loss at Michigan State on January 18th just three weeks ago.  But PG Elijah Hawkins (8.8 PPG, 7.8 APG) missed that game for the Gophers.  He is their floor general and not having him on the road against the Spartans was a massive loss.  Having him back for the rematch will make a massive difference.

Michigan State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after covering two of their last three against the spread.  The Spartans are 1-3 SU in their last four Big Ten road game with their lone win coming by 2 points at Maryland.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +1

I love the spot for Oklahoma tonight.  They have lost three of their last four games coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  They are back home tonight where they are 11-2 SU at home this season.

BYU is coming off consecutive wins over Texas at home and at West Virginia.  This is a tough travel spot for the Cougars traveling from Provo to Morgantown and now all the way to Norman.  This is a tired BYU team that I think runs out of gas tonight against a Sooners team that wants it more.

BYU is 64-96 ATS in its last 160 road games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Porter Moser is 9-2 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game as the coach of Oklahoma.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

20* Clemson/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

The UNC Tar Heels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 93-84 win Saturday night against their biggest rivals in the Duke Blue Devils.  They already beat Clemson on the road earlier this season and won't be that motivated to beat them again.

Clemson goes from a 3-point home favorite against UNC in that first meeting to an 8.5-point road dog in the rematch.  That's a massive adjustment.  The Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory after losing two of their last three.  They lost by a single point at Duke and lost by 1 at home to Virginia.

Clemson has some 3-point luck coming their way.  The Tigers shot 1-of-18 (5.6%) from 3 against North Carolina in that first meeting.  They are shooting 30.1% from 3 in ACC play but are a much better shooting team than that making 35.2% on the season.  Opponents are only making 26.8% from 3 against UNC in ACC play, so the Tar Heels are due for some regression in that department.  Opponents are hitting 37.3% from 3 against Clemson in ACC play, so they are due for some positive regression.  The Tigers have been one of the most unlucky teams in the ACC.

Clemson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after committing five or fewer turnovers last game.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Georgia Tech OVER 150

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.7 points per game this season.  In fact, 11 of Wake Forest's last 12 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 25th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

Georgia Tech ranks 94th in adjusted offense and 182nd in adjusted defense making them more of an OVER team.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 147 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

Wake Forest is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 road games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games after scoring 95 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -3.5

What more does South Carolina have to do to get some respect? The Gamecocks are 19-3 SU & 16-5 ATS this season including 11-1 SU at home.  They have covered 5 straight coming into this one with upset road wins at Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia as well as home wins over Kentucky by 17 and Missouri by 8.

Ole Miss has not fared well on the road in SEC play.  The Rebels are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four road games losing by 26 at Tennessee, by 9 at LSU and by 23 at Auburn with their lone road win coming against an overrated Texas A&M team.

South Carolina is a balanced team that ranks 58th in adjusted offense and 42nd in adjusted defense.  They are 24th in effective FG percentage defense and only allow 32.2% 3-point shooting.  Ole Miss is great on offense but just 143rd in adjusted defense.  They are 352nd in allowing offensive rebounds defensively.  They rely heavily on the 3-pointer on offense, making this a great matchup for South Carolina.  They Gamecocks will dominate on the glass in this one as well which will be the key to victory.

South Carolina is 11-1 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Gamecocks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game.  Bet South Carolina Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -4

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone 13-1 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have done a lot of this damage without key players in Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.  But both are back healthy now and the Cavaliers are as close to full strength as they have been all season.

I like them to cover this short number at home against a Sacramento Kings team that is in a tough spot tonight.  The Kings have to be fatigued playing their 7th consecutive road game tonight.  They will also be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  I don't expect them to have much left in the tank for the Cavaliers tonight.

Sacramento is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Cleveland is 12-4 ATS against good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after covering four of its last five against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +14

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 120-108 road loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday.  Now they get to play the Nuggets again here just two days later on Sunday.  They will be the more motivated team in this rematch.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team when healthy, which is the case for them right now.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA because they have a poor 15-34 SU record and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

But the Blazers have shown what they are capable of in their last three games when healthy.  They upset the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs and upset the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point home dogs.  They only lost by 12 as 14-point road dogs to the Nuggets and Jerami Grant was a late scratch with back tightness.  There's a chance they get Grant back today, but having Simons, Brogdon, Ayton and Henderson healthy and playing is enough.

Being the defending champs comes with a tax for the Nuggets.  This team is struggling to get margin largely because they get everyone's best shot.  In fact, the Nuggets haven't won any of their last 12 games by more than 12 points, making for a 12-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  The Nuggets aren't going to be all that motivated to beat Portland again, which is going to make it tough to get margin.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Night Line Mistake on Illinois -9.5

Nebraska has some of the biggest home/road splits in the country.  The Huskers haven't lost a Big Ten home game, but it is also true they haven't won a Big Ten road game.  The Huskers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their five Big Ten road games losing by 11 at Minnesota, by 16 at Wisconsin, by 18 at Iowa, by 5 at Rutgers and by 22 at Maryland.

Now this is a terrible spot for the Huskers coming off their big OT win over Wisconsin at home on Thursday.  They have just two days off in between games to get ready for this game at Illinois.  They are a banged up team right now with a laundry list of injuries to boot.

Now they must travel to face a rested Illinois team that has had the last four days off since a 87-75 win at Ohio State.  The Fighting Illini have been one of the most underrated teams in the country going 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They just got their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. back and are a real threat to win the Big Ten and make a deep run in the tournament.  I expect them to win this game by double-digits today to give us the cover.

Illinois is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Nebraska with the last two wins coming by 16 points each.  Nebraska is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 Big Ten road games.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet Illinois Sunday.

20* Purdue/Wisconsin CBS No-Brainer on Wisconsin +2.5

The Wisconsin Badgers should not be home underdogs to the Purdue Boilermakers today.  The Badgers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  This will be Purdue's toughest road test of the entire season today.

Purdue's six Big Ten road games have come against Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers.  They lost at Northwestern and lost by 16 at Nebraska as 7.5-point favorites.  Wisconsin took Nebraska to OT last time out and lost in what was a lookahead spot.  They will come back fully focused today.

Purdue is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following six or more consecutive wins.  The Boilermakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites of 6 points or less or PK.  The Badgers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Wisconsin is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Purdue with both narrow losses coming by 4 and 2 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

20* Lakers/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have gone 15-2 UNDER in their last 17 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 15 of those 17 games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they host the Los Angeles Lakers on ABC.

The Knicks are missing Julius Randle and Quentin Grimes right now and OG Anunoby is questionable after missing the past couple games.  The Knicks have had to rely on defense more than ever of late without these guys.  They struggle to get easy baskets on offense with only Jalen Brunson and DiVincenzo doing the heavy lifting without them.

The Lakers have a bunch of injuries of their own that are hampering them offensively and forcing them to rely more on defense.  LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both questionable after missing the last game, and Jared Vanderbilt and Cam Reddish are both out.  The Lakers went for just 219 combined points with the Celtics last time out.

The Lakers and Knicks have combined for 223 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Syracuse/Wake Forest OVER 150.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 79.8 points per game this season.  In fact, 10 of Wake Forest's last 11 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 38th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

It is also too low for a game involving Syracuse, which is another dead nuts OVER team.  The Orange rank 41st in adjusted tempo this season.  They just combined for 155 points with Boston College last time out and have allowed 49.2% or higher shooting in three consecutive games.

Wake Forest and Syracuse have combined for at least 151 points in three of their last four meetings.  Syracuse is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 conference road games.  Wake Forest is 32-19 OVER in its last 51 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Oregon State +8

The USC Trojans have been broken since losing PG Isiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) in a home loss to Washington State on January 10th.  They are 0-6 SU in those six games with all six losses coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 15-point home loss to UCLA and a 9-point home loss to Oregon in their last two games coming in.

They have rarely even been competitive.  They did get Boogie Ellis back from injury, but Bronnie James has been a major disappointment this season.  He is being forced to play PG and it isn't his natural position.  The Trojans aren't getting much from their big men either.

Oregon State has been grossly undervalued in Pac-12 play.  The Beavers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with three road losses by 8 points or fewer during this stretch.  They beat USC 86-70 at home to start this stretch on January 30th.

USC is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive home games.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Duke/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 153.5

This is a matchup between two of the best defensive teams in the country.  North Carolina ranks 4th in adjusted defense while Duke ranks 30th.  UNC likes to try to get out in transition, but Duke is great at not allowing fast break points.  The same can be said for UNC.

Duke is 6-2 UNDER in all road games this season and we're seeing just 141.5 combined points per game in these games.  UNC is 9-1 UNDER vs. conference opponents this season.  Duke is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine road games off two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Duke's last 10 Saturday road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -5

Indiana State wants revenge from a 89-78 loss at Drake on January 10th.  The Bulldogs shot the lights out in that game going 10-of-25 (40%) from 3.  They will be much less comfortable on the road in the rematch tonight.

The Sycamores are 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season outscoring their opponents by 26.5 points per game.  They are scoring 90.6 points per game and allowing 64.1 points per game at home.  

Drake is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five road games losing outright as 7-point favorites at UAB, outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont and outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB.  This will be Drake's toughest road test of the season tonight.

Drake is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Sycamores are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday home games.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +7.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers are as healthy as they have been all season and improving rapidly under first-year head coach Josh Eilert.  The Mountaineers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with outright upsets over Texas as 6-point dogs, Kansas as 10-point dogs and Cincinnati as 4-point dogs.

Now the Mountaineers are once again catching too many points at home against BYU as 7.5-point dogs today.  This is a long road trip for the Cougars and one of their toughest of the season.  They lost their last road game at Texas Tech, only beat UCF by 5 and lost at Baylor by 9 in their last three road games.

West Virginia is 63-35 ATS in its last 98 home games off a home win.  The Mountaineers are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games vs. good offensive teams that score 84 points per game or more.  The Big 12 highway will cool the Cougars off once again today.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Tech -4

Texas Tech is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games overall with its only two losses coming on the road to Houston and TCU, which are two of the best teams in the Big 12.  The Red Raiders upset both Texas and Oklahoma on the road during this stretch.

Off that road loss to TCU, the Red Raiders return home today where they are 11-0 SU on the season.  They take on a Cincinnati team that has been vulnerable on the road.  The Bearcats are 1-5 SU in their last six games played away from home, including an upset loss at West Virginia last time out.

This is a tough spot for Cincinnati having just two days in between games flying back from West Virginia and now flying out to Lubbock.  The Red Raiders have had the last three days off and very little travel from TCU back to Lubbock.  The spot really favors the home team as a result.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Notre Dame +10.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their poor 7-14 SU record.  But the Fighting Irish have gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and they haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.

Now they are catching double-digits against a Pittsburgh team that hasn't been very good at home this season.  The Panthers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their five ACC home games this season with their lone win coming by 5 points, and all four losses coming by 9 points or more.

Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Fighting Irish is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +17.5

Florida Atlantic has been grossly overvalued due to making the Final 4 last year.  They also gets their opponents' best shots with a target on their back as well.  The expectations from that Final 4 run coupled with that target have made it very difficult for the Owls to live up to expectations.

Florida Atlantic is now 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Owls haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 15 points, making for an 11-0 system backing Tulsa pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.

Tulsa is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  Tulsa has just one loss by more than 15 points the entire season.  That makes for a 19-1 system backing the Golden Hurricane pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -2

This is a good time to 'buy low' on Utah coming off two consecutive road losses.  The Utes are a much different team at home.  Indeed, they are 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20.8 points per game.

Now they take on a Colorado team that has some of the biggest home/road splits in the country over the last several seasons.  That has been the case again this season as Colorado is 12-0 at home but just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in all games played away from Boulder.

Utah is 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Colorado.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The Buffaloes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso PK

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the MVC because of their poor 6-16 SU record.  But the Beacons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and continuing to deliver for backers.  Now they are going to get rewarded for their efforts with a SU victory at home Saturday.

Valparaiso wants revenge from a 78-75 loss at Evansville just two weeks ago on January 17th.  They lost by just 3 despite Evansville shooting 50.9% from the floor and a ridiculous 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3.  They aren't going to shoot that well on the road this time around.

Valparaiso is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Evansville.  The Purple Aces are 0-5 SU in their last five road games with losses by 7, 49, 36, 14 and 18 points.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Charlotte -6.5

Charlotte is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The 49ers are 13-7 SU & 12-6 ATS this season.  They have been especially dominant at home, going 9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season.  They beat FAU, North Texas and UAB at home this season, which are three of their biggest contenders to win the AAC.

Now they take on lowly East Carolina, which has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Pirates have lost by 15 at FAU and by 8 at UAB and they won't be able to hang with Charlotte, either.

The 49ers have a big rest and preparation advantage heading into this one.  They have had the last week off since upsetting Tulane 75-71 as 3.5-point road dogs last time out.  They improved to 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  ECU just lost 71-60 at home to South Florida on Wednesday and now only has two days to get ready for Charlotte.

The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in thier last eight home games after playing a road game.  Charlotte is 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine home meetings with East Carolina.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota PK

Northwestern is coming off a crushing 105-96 (OT) loss to Purdue on Wednesday.  It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice.  I fully expect the Wildcats to be flat and tired today after having just two days off in between games.

Minnesota is rested and ready to go after beating Penn State 83-74 last Saturday.  The Golden Gophers have had a full week to rest and prepare to beat Northwestern.  I expect them to put it to use today and get the job done.

Minnesota is one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  The Gophers have gone 13-7 SU & 17-3 ATS this season.  That includes 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS at home.  Northwestern is going to cool off from 3 today as Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in thier last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% of their attempts or better.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas/TCU OVER 149

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 61st in adjusted tempo and 20th in adjusted offense.  They like to get out and run and will control the tempo playing at home today.  They are scoring 83.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting, including 85.5 points per game on 50.3% shooting at home.

Texas ranks 25th in adjusted offense.  The Longhorns are scoring 76.6 points per game on 48% shooting.  They have the guards to get out and run with TCU as well.  The Longhorns have scored at least 71 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

Texas is 7-1 OVER in conference games this season.  TCU is 17-6 OVER in its last 23 games after scoring 85 points or more in two consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-2 in TCU's last eight games overall with 151 or more combined points in five of them.  Texas and their opponents have combined for at least 145 points in seven of their last eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.  

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +3

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's.  The Red Storm have lost four of their last five games with three of those losses coming on the road and a 1-point home loss to Marquette.  They will be more motivated to win this game against UConn than any other game all season.

The Red Storm are also out for revenge from a 69-65 road loss at UConn in their first meeting this season.  Now they get them at home where they are 8-2 SU with that 1-point loss to Marquette being their lone home loss in conference play.  They beat Xavier by 15, Butler by 16, Providence by 2 and Villanova by 20 in their other four Big East home games.

Alex Karaban (14.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is questionable for the Huskies today after suffering an ankle injury against Providence last time out.  Rick Pitino is 50-26 ATS when revenging a road loss as a head coach.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team when healthy, which is the case for them right now.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA because they have a poor 15-33 SU record and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

But the Blazers have shown what they are capable of in their last two games when healthy.  They upset the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs and upset the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point home dogs.  Now they are catching 12.5 points to the Denver Nuggets, and they won't have a letdown tonight with this opportunity to take down the defending champs.

Being the defending champs comes with a tax for the Nuggets.  This team is struggling to get margin largely because they are not healthy.  In fact, the Nuggets haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 12 points, making for a 12-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Nikola Jokic is questionable to play tonight with a back injury after missing their last game as well.  Bet the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +12

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  These are the types of teams you can really make money on in the NBA.  They have a poor 6-41 SU record so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But they keep showing up every night.

The Pistons pulled the outright upset 120-104 as 12.5-point dogs in their last home game over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They also took the Cavaliers to the wire on the road last time out in a 128-121 loss as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they are once again catching too many points tonight at home to the Los Angeles Clippers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they did lose by 10 at Cleveland as 2.5-point favorites two games back to give these teams a common opponent.  And they won't be all that motivated to beat Detroit tonight.  This will be their 5th road game in 8 days as well and they are starting to run out of gas.  Detroit will be playing its 2nd game in 5 days and will be the fresher team.

Plays against road favorites of 10 points or more (LA Clippers) - a hot team winning 12 or more of their last 15 games, a tired team playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -7.5

Dayton is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about.  The Flyers are 17-3 this season including 10-0 at home.  They rank 16th in adjusted offense and 56th in adjusted defense as head coach Anthony Grant has the most efficient offensive team he has had in his time at Dayton.

St. Bonaventure is getting too much respect from its consecutive home wins over St. Joe's and VCU.  The Bonnies have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 11 at Richmond, by 9 at George Mason and by 4 at Duquesne, which was previously 0-6 in conference play prior to that win.

The Bonnies really struggle on the offensive end, which is why I don't think they can keep up with the Flyers.  They have shot 40% or less in six of their last nine games overall.  Dayton has won 12 of its last 14 home meetings with St. Bonaventure, including four straight home wins in this series with the last three coming by 18, 26 and 10 points.  Bet Dayton Friday.

15* Oregon/USC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -2

The USC Trojans have been broken since losing PG Isiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) in a home loss to Washington State on January 10th.  They are 0-5 SU in those five games with all five losses coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 50-65 home loss to UCLA last time out.

They have rarely even been competitive.  They did get Boogie Ellis back from injury, but Bronnie James has been a major disappointment this season.  He is being forced to play PG and it isn't his natural position.  The Trojans aren't getting much from their big men either.

Oregon has gotten healthy and is playing like a legit contender in the Pac-12.  The Ducks are 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Colorado and Utah which are two very tough places to play, and at home to Arizona.

Oregon has had little trouble winning at USC.  The Ducks are 14-8 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 trips to USC.  Oregon is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 80 points or more.  USC is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 home games after scoring 55 points or less.  Bet Oregon Thursday.

20* 76ers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -4.5

The Utah Jazz return home highly motivated for a victory off two blowout road losses at Brooklyn and at New York on back-to-back days.  They get exactly the team they need to get back on track in the injury-ravaged Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers are without Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.8 PPG) and could be without Tyrese Maxey (25.7 PPG, 6.6 APG), who has missed the last three games with injury.  The 76ers are a tired team as well playing their 5th road game in eight days and in altitude in Salt Lake City to boot.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Jazz tonight.

Utah is 15-6 SU & 16-4-1 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are fully healthy right now to boot.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +9.5

This number has been set too high for a rivalry game between North Dakota State and South Dakota State tonight.  Asking the Jackrabbits to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Each of the last 12 meetings between South Dakota State and North Dakota State were decided by 10 points or less.  11 of those 12 meetings were decided by 6 points or fewer.  The Bison haven't lost to the Jackrabbits by more than 6 points in any of their last 12 meetings, making for a 12-0 system backing them pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.  Bet North Dakota State Thursday.

15* Bucks/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +10.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are the team you want to back when they are fully healthy and fade when they are not.  It makes as big a difference to them as any team in the NBA.  Right now they are fully healthy with Grant, Brogdon, Simons, Ayton and Henderson all playing.

We saw what they were capable of when that's the case last time out upsetting the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs.  They are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games with outright upsets at home against Brooklyn as 7-point dogs, at home against Indiana as 8-point dogs, at Houston as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at OKC as 14-point dogs.  Most of their losses were when they weren't fully healthy.

Now the Blazers are once again catching too many points at home tonight as 10.5-point dogs to the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks are in transition right now with the switch at head coach in Doc Rivers.  They are fade material in the immediate future.  He isn't going to fix their defense as the Bucks rank 19th in defensive rating, which is why they struggle to get margin on teams.  Despite being 32-15 SU, the Bucks have just 11 wins by more than 11 points.

The Blazers will be giving their best effort tonight with this game on National TV on ESPN, and that effort should be good enough to stay within this inflated number.  Milwaukee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 144.5

Rutgers is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Scarlet Knights rank 9th in adjusted defense and 257th in adjusted offense.  This total of 144.5 is way too high for a game involving Rutgers.

A big reason it is higher than normal is because Penn State does play faster than every other Big Ten team, but they aren't going to control the tempo on the road here.  Rutgers is going to control the tempo and slow this thing down to a snail's pace.

Rutgers' last five home games have all seen 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation and all five would have went UNDER the total if not for OT.  They combined for 128 points with Purdue, 138 points with Nebraska at the end of regulation, 123 with Indiana, 117 with Stonehill and 130 with Mississippi State.

The UNDER is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between Penn State and Rutgers with 142 or fewer combined points in all 10 meetings, including 133 or fewer combined points in nine of those 10 games.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso +20.5

The Drake Bulldogs are in the ultimate sandwich spot tonight.  They are coming off a 77-63 home win as 9.5-point favorites against their in-state rivals in Northern Iowa, who were without their best player.  And now they have an even bigger game on deck on the road Saturday at Indiana State that is a matchup of the top two teams in the Missouri Valley.

Sandwiched in between those games is this contest against Valparaiso, which has one of the worst records in the conference.  The Bulldogs are just going to feel like they can show up and win this one, and they won't be giving the Beacons their full attention.  So getting 20.5 points with Valpo is a tremendous value tonight given the awful spot for Drake.

But this Valpo team has been no pushover.  The Beacons have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are much better than they get credit for.  They haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 11 points.  They are 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch losing by 6 as 12.5-point dogs at Illinois-Chicago, winning outright at Illinois State by 9 as 10-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Evansville as 7-point dogs and losing by just 6 at Southern Illinois as 13.5-point dogs.

Valparaiso is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Drake.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.  Drake hasn't won any of its last 14 meetings with Valpo by more than 18 points, making for a 14-0 system backing the Beacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  The Beacons are 8-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Wizards OVER 236.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  But because they have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, we are getting a discount on this over.  That leaves us with a great opportunity to 'buy low' on this OVER.

The Clippers are an offensive juggernaut right now that they are fully healthy.  They have scored 125 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The three exceptions were against Cleveland, Boston and Minnesota, which are three of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They will get 125-plus tonight which will pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Wizards are 23-8 OVER in their last 31 home games off an ATS win.  Washington home games are averaging 241.5 combined points per game this season.  Washington is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points pre game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Pittsburgh OVER 143

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.2 points per game this season.  They are allowing 79.6 points per game in all games played away from home.  This total is 143 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

In fact, nine of Wake Forest's last 10 games have seen 147 or more combined points, which makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 143-point total.  Pitt is more of an under team than an over team, but the Panthers will get theirs on offense and this game will sail OVER.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between Pitt and Wake Forest with 144 or more combined points in five of those seven meetings.  The last two meetings saw 160 and 166 combined points.  The OVER is 14-2 in Wake's last 16 January games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Wake Forest +2

I love the spot for Wake Forest tonight.  They will be the much fresher team as they have been off since January 22nd and have had eight days off in between games.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset at Pitt tonight.

Pitt is in a brutal spot coming off three consecutive road games against Duke, Georgia Tech and Miami.  This is a tired Panthers team and one that is in a bit of a letdown spot after winning two of those three games on the highway.

Pitt has one of the worst home-court advantages in the ACC.  Indeed, the Panthers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS at home in ACC play losing by 9 as 1.5-point favorites to Clemson, by 11 as 6.5-point favorites to Syracuse, by 22 as 5-point dogs to Duke and by 13 as 3.5-point dogs to UNC.  They fall to 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in ACC play tonight.

Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS vs. good teams that win 60-80% of their games this season.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4

West Virginia is as healthy as they have been all season right now and a dangerous team in the Big 12 moving forward as a result.  We have seen that on display in their last two home games as the Mountaineers pulled off the outright upsets over Kansas 91-85 as 10-point dogs and Texas 76-73 as 6-point dogs.

Now the Mountaineers are catching 4 points at home tonight to the Cincinnati Bearcats in a game I fully expect them to win outright.  Cincinnati is coming off a 68-57 home win over UCF against a Knights team that was missing two key players.  The Bearcats were 1-4 SU in their previous five games with their lone win coming by 4 at home over TCU.  They have only played six games away from home all season and are 2-4 SU in those games.

Cincinnati is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss PK

What more does Ole Miss have to do to get some respect? The Rebels are 17-3 SU this season including a perfect 11-0 SU at home.  Chris Beard is making an immediate impact on this team in his first season and proving he's one of the best head coaches in the country.

Mississippi State is coming off a huge upset home win over Auburn.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Bulldogs.  Mississippi State is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its three SEC road games this season losing by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina, losing by 13 as 6.5-point dogs at Kentucky and losing by 9 as 4.5-point dogs at Florida.

Ole Miss is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in SEC home games this season beating Florida by 18 as 3-point dogs, beating Vanderbilt by 13 as 10-point favorites and crushing Arkansas by 26 as 8.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers this season.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Toronto Raptors traded away two of their best players in Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.  Both are already making major impacts on their new teams in the Pacers and Knicks, respectively.  The two players they got back in the Anunoby trade in Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are currently hurt and out tonight.

What's left of this Toronto team outside of Scottie Barnes just isn't very good.  They are one of the worst teams in the NBA in their current state.  That has shown of late as the Raptors are now 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games with four of those five losses coming by 6 points or more.

The Bulls are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  The two losses during this stretch came on the road at Phoenix by 2 at the buzzer and at the Lakers by 9.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games beating Memphis by 29, Houston by 5, Charlotte by 13 and Philadelphia by 13.

Chicago is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 11-3 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher this season.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/TCU OVER 147

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 64th in adjusted tempo and 26th in adjusted offense.  Now they play a Texas Tech team that ranks 16th in adjusted offense.  The Horned Frogs will control the tempo playing at home in an up and down game, and both teams are going to be very efficient in scoring the basketball.

We saw that on display over the weekend with TCU beating Baylor 105-102 in OT and Texas Tech beating Oklahoma 85-84 in regulation.  The Red Raiders have scored at least 76 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  The Hornets Frogs have scored at least 77 points in five of their last eight games overall and 72 or more in seven of those eight.

In their final meeting last season TCU beat Texas Tech 83-82 for 165 combined points.  It will be more of the same here again tonight as many realize TCU is a dead nuts OVER team, but most don't realize that Texas Tech has been the most efficient offensive team in Big 12 play this season.

Texas Tech is 11-3 OVER in its last 14 road games.  TCU is 7-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game this season.  The Red Raidres are 9-2 OVER vs. good shooting teams making 45% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 231

This total has been inflated due to the Lakers going over the total in five consecutive games coming in.  That includes their epic 145-144 (2 OT) win over the Warriors on Saturday in a game that was tied 118-118 at the end of regulation for 236 combined points.

After playing a bunch of over teams during this stretch, now the Lakers take on a Houston Rockets team that is a dead nuts UNDER team with the way they play.  Houston ranks 20th in pace, 21st in offensive rating and 8th in defensive rating.  The Lakers rank just 20th in offensive rating and a respectable 14th in defensive rating.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Lakers and Rockets.  In their two meetings this season, they combined for just 204 and 209 points.  Houston is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games after outrebounding its last two opponents by 15 boards or more.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a massive letdown spot off their epic 145-144 (2 OT) win at Golden State Saturday night.  They are already 2-0 SU against the Houston Rockets this season winning both meetings at home, so they won't be all that motivated to beat this team again.

The Houston Rockets will be motivated playing with double-revenge.  The Rockets are 16-8 SU & 16-8 ATS at home this season and finally get the Lakers at home this time around.  Houston is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Los Angeles with three outright upsets.  The Lakers are 9-15 SU on the road this season.

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Los Angeles is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 games off two or more consecutive wins.  Darwin Ham is 6-20 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Lakers.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Wizards/Spurs OVER 240

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the San Antonio Spurs.  The Wizards rank 1st in pace and 29th in defensive rating while the Spurs rank 4th in pace and 25th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings between the Wizards and Spurs and they both sailed OVER the total.  The Wizards won 136-124 for 260 combined points in their final meeting last season.  But more importantly, the Spurs won 131-127 for 258 combined points on January 20th just over a week ago today.  

The OVER is now 5-1 in the last six meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  The Spurs and Wizards have combined for at least 241 points in eight of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -8

The New York Knicks are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall since trading for OG Anunoby.  That includes home wins over the Nuggets by 38 and the Heat by 16 in their last two games coming in.  Now I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Charlotte Hornets tonight.

The Hornets just traded away Terry Rozier and now their best player in LaMelo Ball is questionable tonight and likely won't go.  They were already without Mark Williams and Gordon Hayward.  This is one of the least talented teams in the NBA in their current state.

The Hornets are 3-21 SU in their last 24 games overall.  Charlotte is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall and has rarely been competitive.  The Hornets are coming off a pair of blowout home losses to the Jazz by 12 and the Rockets by 34.

The Knicks own the Hornets going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with them this season winning by 22 and 24 at home as well as by 14 on the road.  New York is 16-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  It will be more of the same tonight with the Knicks winning by double-digits.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

20* Duke/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +3.5

I love the spot for Virginia Tech tonight.  They are coming off a 91-67 blowout home victory over Georgia Tech on Saturday and get to stay at home here.  They will be the much fresher team in this matchup despite playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

Duke will also be playing its 2nd game in 3 days but has to travel.  The Blue Devils expended a ton of energy in their 72-71 win over Clemson on Saturday at home.  They also won in dramatic fashion with two free throws just before the buzzer to eek out the win.  Now they are primed for a letdown as well.

Virginia Tech has a big home-court advantage going 10-1 SU at home this season.  The lone loss came by 4 points to Miami.  The Hokies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Blue Devils and always play them tough in Blacksburg.  They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings.

Virginia Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  I expect the Hokies to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -6.5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are coming off a pair of single-digit road losses to Phoenix and the LA Lakers.  Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover and now take a big step down in class against the Portland Trail Blazers.  This one has blowout written all over it.

Portland is 4-10 in its last 14 games overall and just cannot stay healthy.  They lost both Jerami Grant and Scoot Henderson to injury in the 1H of their 116-100 road loss to the Spurs on Friday.  Now they will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days and returning home from a four-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home from an extended road trip.

Grant, Henderson, Malcolm Brodgon, Anfernee Simons and Jabari Walker are all questionable to play tonight.  Sheadon Sharpe is out.  Depending how this injury news breaks, the Bulls could close as double-digit favorites.  There's just not much talent for the Blazers outside of these guys that are questionable or out.

Portland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after covering four or five of its last six ATS.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the Bulls Sunday.

20* Lions/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 51

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The 49ers played in the slop and rain last week against the Packers and it still should have gone over the 50.5-point total.  They just needed the Packers to make a FG that would have tied the game at 24-24 and at the very least forced OT.  But now the conditions are going to be perfect for a shootout in Santa Clara on Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, 0% chance of precipitation and only 3 MPH winds.

The 49ers face a dead nuts OVER team in the Detroit Lions who have an elite offense that can match them, but one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL.  We saw the Lions allow 408 yards and and 6.8 yards per play against the Bucs last week and 425 yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Rams the week prior.  The Lions also faced the Vikings twice in the final three weeks and gave up 448 yards and 6.4 per play in the second meeting and 390 yards and 7.6 per play in the first, and that was to backup QB Nick Mullens.

Brock Purdy has a lot of critics for his performance against the Packers.  But the fact of the matter is he has small hands and struggles in rain and that has been shown dating back to college.  Purdy is in line for one of his best games of the season against this soft Detroit secondary that has allowed at least 319 passing yards in five consecutive games now.  

The worry was that Deebo Samuel would be out, but he returned to practice on Thursday and now Purdy should have his full compliment of weapons after Samuel was knocked out of the Green Bay game on the opening series.  That changed their entire game plan as Samuel was a big part of it, which also hampered their offense.  But Purdy came up big with his best drive of the game when they needed it most late in the 4th quarter to take the lead on the Packers, and that should have him brimming with confidence coming into this one and licking his chops at this opportunity to face Detroit's defense.

With the 49ers likely playing from ahead, the Lions are going to have to play with more of a sense of urgency on offense.  They have a great balanced attack that has produced 27.2 points per game, 232 rushing yards per game and 260 passing yards per game this season.  The concern is usually with Jared Goff going outdoors because he has much better numbers indoors.  But that concern is greatly mitigated with how perfect the weather conditions are going to be in Santa Clara.

This San Francisco defense has taken a big step back from last season and isn't as ferocious as it has been in years' past.  The 49ers gave up 29 points to the Cardinals and 33 points to the Ravens down the stretch.  Their secondary isn't great and they are lacking a pass rush.  They have also allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games.  For the first time in the Shanahan era, the 49ers are actually led by their offense and not their defense.

San Francisco is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  This one has shootout written all over it in a battle of two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two overrated defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens AFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The Baltimore Ravens are scoring 32.1 points per game at home this season.  That includes the 10 points they scored against the Steelers in Week 18 when they rested Lamar Jackson, or that number would be even higher.

The Ravens have the best offense they have ever had in the Jim Harbaugh era.  Todd Monken is a tremendous offensive coordinator and has gotten the most out of Lamar Jackson and all these playmakers.  The Ravens even get Mark Andrews back this week after not having him for the second half of the season to add another weapon.

The Chiefs have a great defense, but they got really banged up against the Bills last week.  LB Willie Gay, who is the spy for Jackson, left that game with a neck injury and is questionable.  Also questionable are CB L'Jarius Sneed and FS Mike Edwards, who also left the game last week.  This Kansas City defense isn't what it was in the regular season.

KC benefited from playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season.  When they stepped up in class they gave up 27 points to the Packers and 24 to the Bills.  They are weak against the run, and the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL.  I expect the Ravens to get what they want on the ground and to control this game from ahead.

With the Ravens being ahead, the Chiefs are going to be forced to try and play catch up, which is going to be good for the OVER.  The Chiefs have been playing with more tempo to try and get in a rhythm on offense, and it is working in these playoffs.  They had 26 points and 409 total yards on the Dolphins and 27 points and 361 total yards on the Bills.  They averaged 7.7 yards per play against the Bills last week and had eight plays of 20-plus yards.

No question the Ravens have elite defensive numbers this season, but they also benefited from playing backup and rookie QB's this season.  We saw them give up 33 points to the Browns when De'Sean Watson was healthy.  They also gave up 31 points to the Rams and 429 total yards to the 49ers.  I don't think they are as good defensively as their numbers would suggest, and the Chiefs will be able to score on them as well.

Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in its last nine road game with a total of 42.5 to 49 points.  Andy Reid is 13-3 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Kansas City.  The Chiefs play with more of a sense of urgency on offense when they are tested.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Rutgers UNDER 142

Purdue ranks 12th in adjusted defense and is an elite defensive team.  Rutgers ranks 13th in adjusted defense and is an elite defensive team as well.  It's safe to say points will be very hard to come by in this game between Purdue and Rutgers Sunday.

Five of the last seven meetings between Purdue and Rutgers have seen 138 or fewer combined points.  This total of 142 is too high today when you look at the head-to-head series.

Rutgers' last four home games have all seen 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation and all four would have went UNDER the total if not for OT.  They combined for 138 points with Nebraska at the end of regulation, 123 with Indiana, 117 with Stonehill and 130 with Mississippi State.

Rutgers is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  Purdue has went over the total in five of its last six against bad defensive teams and that has inflated this total as well.    We'll take advantage of the value and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on North Texas +9.5

Florida Atlantic is grossly overvalued right now.  The Owls are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone cover coming in a 13-point win over lowly Rice as a 12-point favorites.  They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 15 points.  You're paying a tax on FAU after making the Final 4 last year, and they just get everyone's best shot now with a target on their back.

I think North Texas' best shot will be good enough to stay within single-digits today if not pull off the outright upset.  The Mean Green are 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just recently got back two of their top five scorers in Rubin Jones (11.7 PPG) and John Buggs III (7.5 PPG) from injury and are at full strength after these two have both been out for most of January.  Having them back makes them a real contender moving forward.

This has been a very tightly-contested series in recent meetings with each of the last three meetings being decided by 4 points or less.  FAU hasn't beaten North Texas by more than 6 points in any of their last five meetings.  Asking the Owls to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet North Texas Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This line has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Clippers had two days off before their 127-107 win in Toronto last night.  They made such easy work of the Raptors that they didn't have to play their starters big minutes.

The Clippers will still be plenty fresh and motivated to try and knock off the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Clippers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall with the two losses coming by 3 points to the Lakers and by 4 to the Timberwolves.  So the Clippers would be 14-0 ATS with a line of +7.5 in their last 14 games.  They are playing too well right now to be catching 7.5 points.

The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis and they are much less efficient without him.  They should not be favored by 7.5 without Porzingis, who would have been a matchup nightmare for the Clippers in their current state.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -9.5

This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just lost 138-104 at home to the Houston Rockets last night, and their effort won't be any better tonight.  They traded away Terry Rozier and now they are even more short-handed without Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams already.

The Utah Jazz will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They blew out the Wizards 123-108 on the road last time out and will win this game by double-digits as well to get us the win and cover.  The Jazz are 13-6 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season now that they are fully healthy.

Charlotte is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  Utah is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5

I love the spot for Penn State tonight.  The Nittany Lions have had the last week off to rest and get ready for Minnesota.  They were last seen at home upsetting Wisconsin 87-83 and have a pretty great home-court advantage going 8-2 SU at home this season.

They will certainly have the rest advantage over Minnesota, which lost 61-59 at home to Wisconsin on Tuesday.  That's the kind of loss that can beat a young team like Minnesota twice.  It was their biggest rivals in the Badgers and they missed several point blank layups at the end to tie the game.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Penn State today.

The Nittany Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 January home games.  Penn State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games off a conference road loss.  The Nittany Lions are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Gophers.  Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison +2.5

I love the spot for James Madison today.  They will be out for revenge from a 59-55 home loss to Appalachian State as 7-point favorites on January 13th exactly two weeks ago today.  Now the books have adjusted this number 9.5 points for flipping home courts, which is way too big of an adjustment.

The spot really favors James Madison.  They have had the last two days off after making easy work of Old Dominion 78-62 on the road on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Appalachian State only has one day off in between games after beating Georgia Southern 84-74 as a 16-point favorite on Thursday.

The Dukes have actually played their best basketball on the highway this season going 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in all true/neutral road games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* MVC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bradley/Indiana State OVER 151.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 37th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted offense.  They can simply fill it up and quickly on offense averaging 85.9 points per game on the season and 90.0 points per game at home.

Bradley has their best offensive team of the Brian Wardle era but they aren't as good defensively as they have been in previous years.  They rank 76th in adjusted offense while scoring 80.0 points per game in conference play this season.

Indiana State beat Bradley 85-77 on the road in their first meeting this season for 162 combined points.  Bradley only shot 44.6% as a team and 6-of-20 (30%) from 3 in that game and can be expected to shoot it a little better in the rematch.  Indiana State did what it does and was right on par with its season averages in that first meeting and can be expected to top 80 in the rematch as well.

Bradley is 13-6 OVER In all games this season.  Indiana State is 21-11 OVER in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana State's last five home games have all seen 152 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +8.5

Drake is overvalued after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  This is a tough spot for Drake after having their four-game winning streak snapped in a 83-80 (2 OT) loss at Missouri State on Wednesday.  That game will have taken a lot out of them, and now they only have two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.

The spot really favors the Panthers, who have had the last three days off after a 70-63 home win over Evansville.  The Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now after playing a brutal non-conference schedule.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming to Indiana State, which is the best team in the conference.

Northern Iowa has actually played its best basketball on the road during this stretch going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS winning by 13 at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point favorites, at Missouri State by 2 as 1.5-point dogs, at Murray State by 10 as 1.5-point dogs and at Belmont by 11 as 2-point favorites.  The Panthers took Drake to OT on the road as identical 8.5-point dogs last season as well.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is actually 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games off two consecutive home games.  The Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. good teams that win 60-80% of their games.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -2.5

Dayton is the best team in the country that nobody is talking about.  The Flyers are 16-2 SU & 14-4 ATS this season including 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play outscoring opponents by 13.0 points per game in Atlantic 10 action.

Now the Flyers prove they are the class of the Atlantic 10 by going on the road and making easy work of a Richmond team that is also 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play, but only winning by 5.8 points per game.  The Spiders have simply been fortunate in close games, but their luck runs out today agains the superior Flyers.

Dayton ranks 14th in adjusted offense and 69th in adjusted defense this season while facing the 87th-ranked schedule in the country.  Richmond ranks 139th in adjusted offense and 47th in adjusted defense against the 216th-ranked schedule.  This will be the Spiders' toughest test since an 11-point loss to Florida on a neutral.

Dayton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following three or more consecutive wins.  Bet Dayton Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

I love the spot for Kentucky tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season getting upset at South Carolina by 17 as 5.5-point favorites.  They will bounce back in a big way tonight and won't be taking this dreadful Arkansas team lightly as a result.

The Razorbacks are broken.  They are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and getting blown out on the regular.  They lost by 32 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Georgia, by 22 at Florida, by 13 at home to South Carolina and by 26 at Ole Miss.  I think Eric Musselman has lost this team already, and they may not have their best player in Tramon Mark (17.8 PPG), who is questionable after sitting out last game.

Arkansas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Kentucky is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 0-6 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +15.5

Jerry Stackhouse has a way of getting his teams to improve as the season goes on.  The Vanderbilt Commodores are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They only lost by 3 to Alabama as 12.5-point dogs and by 2 at Memphis as 15.5-point dogs during this stretch.

Now the Commodores are licking their chops at the opportunity to beat their hated in-state rivals in Tennessee.  They have had the last week off to rest and get ready for this game, and they always take it more seriously than the Volunteers do.  That's evident by the fact that the Commodores are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning outright as 10-point home dogs, losing by 9 as 16.5-point road dogs and losing by 9 as 11.5-point road dogs.

Tennessee has only played four true road games all season going 2-2 SU but 1-3 ATS in those games.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three true road games losing by 8 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs, getting upset at Mississippi State by 5 as 2-point favorites and only beating Georgia by 6 as 7.5-point favorites after needing a big 2nd half comeback.  This is a letdown spot for them as well coming off two consecutive big home wins over Florida and Alabama.

Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Volunteers are 0-6 ATS in all games away from home vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon +4

The Arizona Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed a comeback to beat UCLA at home by 6 as 18-point favorites and only beat a depleted USC team by 15 as 20.5-point favorites.

But most concerning is how poorly Arizona has played on the road in Pac-12 play.  The Wildcats are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three Pac-12 road games losing by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, losing by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and losing by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Now Arizona will face its toughest road test of the season at Oregon, which is one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now.  The Ducks are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with both losses coming on the road to Utah (by 3) and Colorado.

The Ducks are a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the Pac-12.  They are coming off a 19-point home win over Arizona State on Thursday and should still be very fresh for this game against Arizona, which will be playing its 2nd road game in 3 days and expended a lot of energy in that 3-point loss at Oregon State Thursday.

Oregon is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after losing two its last three games.  The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Oregon upset Arizona 87-68 as identical 4-point home dogs last season.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Valparaiso +3.5

Valparaiso is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and playing its best basketball of the season.  But the Beacons continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers, and we'll take advantage today and back them as 3.5-point home dogs to Missouri State.

This is a terrible spot for Missouri State.  The Bears are coming off an 83-80 (2 OT) upset home win over Drake as 7-point dogs on Wednesday.  Now they are tired, fat and happy and won't want anything to do with this game against Valpo on Saturday.

That win against Drake pretty much came out of nowhere because the Bears had been rotten prior to that.  They had gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their previous six games including a 26-point loss at Bradley, a 24-point home loss to Murray State, a 22-point loss at Indiana State and a 9-point home loss to Illinois State.

Valpo is 7-0 ATS after three straight games forcing their opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Missouri State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 or more points.  The Beacons are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Valpo Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +8

Wyoming has one of the strongest home-court advantages in the country.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU at home this season including an upset win over Nevada as 7-point dogs in their most recent home game.  That's the same Nevada team that just beat Colorado State 77-64 last time out.

Wyoming should not be catching 8 points at home to a Colorado State team that has been grossly overvalued since it turned conference season.  The Cowboys are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The two wins came in OT at home against Air Force as 15.5-point favorites and by 3 over UNLV at home as 7-point favorites.  They lost all three of their true road games during this stretch.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Colorado State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS off a conference game this season.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor -5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears today.  They are coming off two consecutive road losses to Kansas State and Texas by a combined 6 points.  They lost in OT to K-State and at the buzzer to Texas.  It's safe to say the Bears will be highly motivated for a victory today.

Now Baylor has had the last week off to rest and get better and prepare to beat TCU.  Baylor is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and will get back on track in blowout fashion.  They face a Horned Frogs team that will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and is coming off a fortunate 74-69 road win at lowly Oklahoma State.  They had lost their two previous games to Cincinnati on the road and Iowa State at home.

Baylor is 10-3 ATS as a favorite this season.  Scott Drew will have the Bears ready for one of their best performances of the season today.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* Clemson/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

I love the spot for Clemson.  They last played on Saturday in a 78-67 road win at Florida State.  That means they have had an entire week off to rest and prepare to beat Duke.  They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season.

Duke is not playing well right now.  The Blue Devils are 2-1 SU by 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and consistently getting too much respect.  They only beat Georgia Tech by 5 as 17.5-point home favorites, lost outright to Pitt by 4 as 12-point home favorites and won by 14 at Louisville as 14-point favorites.  Duke played on Tuesday and only had three days to get ready for Clemson.

Duke is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after going over the total in three consecutive games.  Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Knicks UNDER 217

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 11 of their last 13 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including eight of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

The UNDER is 12-1 in Knicks last 13 games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in10 of those 13 games.  The Knicks rank 27th in pace and 7th in defensive rating this season, which makes them a dead nuts UNDER team.

Now they take on another dead nuts UNDER team in the Miami Heat.  The Heat rank 11th in defensive rating, 22nd in offensive rating and 28th in pace.  So this is a matchup between two of the four slowest teams in the NBA from a pace perspective.

Each of the last eight meetings between New York and Miami have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 217-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* WAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UT-Arlington +6.5

This is a big letdown spot for Grand Canyon (18-2).  The Antelopes are coming off a 53-51 win at Stephen F. Austin on Thursday.  That followed up an upset loss at Seattle on Saturday.  Now the Antelopes will be playing their 3rd consecutive road game and their 2nd road game in 3 days.

UT-Arlington has a massive rest advantage after last playing at Abilene Christian on Saturday.  That means the Mavericks have had a full week to rest and prepare to beat Grand Canyon.  They want revenge from a 69-76 road loss at Grand Canyon on December 2nd in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Antelopes on the road, and now they should not be catching 6.5 points at home in the rematch given their rest advantage.

Arlington is 9-1 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Arlington is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in all games this season and have been consistently undervalued.  Bet UT-Arlington Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Oklahoma UNDER 141.5

Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Sooners rank 209th in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted defense.  They face another dead nuts UNDER team today in Texas Tech, which ranks 285th in adjusted tempo and 60th in adjusted defense.

The UNDER is 10-0-1 in the last 11 meetings between Texas Tech and Oklahoma with 137 or fewer combined points in all 11 meetings.  That would make for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 141.5-point total today.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +7.5

This is a great spot to 'sell high' on the North Carolina Tar Heels.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But now they are laying 7.5-point on the road to Florida State after being 3-point underdogs at Clemson.  That just shows you how big of an adjustment they have made on UNC, and it's too big.

Florida State wants revenge from a 78-70 road loss at North Carolina as 12-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 2nd.  But that was a bad FSU team at the time, and this is a much improved team under Leonard Hamilton now.  The Seminoles are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall including upset road wins at Notre Dame, Miami and Syracuse all by 9 points or more.  But they aren't getting the kind of respect that UNC is.

The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in ACC play this season.  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +6.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for South Carolina.  They are coming off their huge upset win over Kentucky at home, and now they have an even bigger game on deck against Tennessee on Tuesday.  That makes this a sandwich spot with Missouri coming to town today.

Missouri is winless in SEC play and highly motivated for that first conference victory.  The Tigers will be out for revenge from a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina on January 13th in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago today.  The Tigers had a big effort last time out losing by just 6 as 11.5-point underdogs at Texas A&M.  They will give another big effort today, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the outright upset given the terrible spot for the Gamecocks.

South Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game after 15-plus games.  Lamont Paris is 10-24 ATS in Saturday home games as a head coach.  Dennis Gates is 28-11 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog as a head coach.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* Stanford/California FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 149

Stanford is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 86th in adjusted tempo, 66th in adjusted offense and 129th in adjusted defense.  California is also an OVER team ranking in the middle of the pack in adjusted tempo, 84th in adjusted offense and 177th in adjusted defense.

Stanford is 13-5 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 6-2 in Stanford's last eight games overall with 149 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  Each of their last five games have seen 152 or more combined points, so this is a pretty low total for a game involving Stanford right now.

The OVER is 13-6 in California's 19 games this season and they are combining for an average of 152.2 points per game this season.  California and its opponents have combined for at least 152 points in four consecutive games coming into this one.

California is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a win by 6 points or less.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cal's six games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Spurs OVER 230.5

The Blazers and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in three of their last four games overall.  That includes a 137-131 win at Houston that saw 268 combined points last time out.

The OVER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games overall with 244 or more combined points in all four games.  The Blazers and Spurs are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 240 or more combined points in four of those five.  That includes 262 combined points in their most recent meeting on December 29th.

The OVER is 15-5 in San Antonio's 20 home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Magic/Grizzlies UNDER 213

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team going 7-2 UNDER in its last nine games overall.  Orlando and its opponents have combined for 212 or fewer points in six of its last eight games.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Magic tonight.

That's especially the case when you consider their opponent in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are also a dead nuts UNDER team right now due to all their injuries.  They are without Morant, Smart, Bane and several others and having to rely on defense to be competitive.

The UNDER is 9-5 in Grizzlies last 14 games overall.  The Grizzlies have scored 108 or fewer points in four consecutive games.  The Magic rank 5th in defensive rating while the Grizzlies rank 10th.  The Grizzlies rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating while the Magic rank 24th.

Memphis is 14-5 UNDER at home this season.  The Grizzlies are 14-4 UNDER after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Orlando is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games following a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Magic are 12-1 UNDER in their last 13 road games following a home loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Pelicans NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 240.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER rank ranking 4th in pace and 7th in offensive rating.  The Pelicans are 8th in offensive rating and both teams are really scoring at a high level right now.

The Thunder are scoring 121.9 points per game this season.  The Pelicans are scoring 117.5 points per game and that number would be even higher if they were healthy all season.  Well, they are healthy right now and we're seeing what they are capable of scoring 127.4 points per game in their last eight games.

Oklahoma City is a perfect 8-0 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116-plus points per game this season.  We are seeing an average of 252.9 combined points per game in these games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Michigan State/Wisconsin FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5

Both Michigan State and Wisconsin are dead nuts UNDER teams because they play so slow.  Wisconsin ranks 326th in adjusted tempo while Michigan State ranks 278th in adjusted tempo.

It should come as no surprise that Michigan State and Wisconsin have combined for 134 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 137 or fewer in 11 of their last 13 meetings, which makes for an 11-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 137.5-point total.

They combined for 127 points in their first meeting this season and both teams actually shot pretty well in that game with both at 45.1% including a combined 19-of-21 from the FT line and 16 made 3-pointers.  We have a lot of room to spare with this 137.5-point total in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +3.5

I like the spot for Long Beach State tonight having a full week off last playing on January 18th to get ready for UC-Irvine.  Meanwhile, the Anteaters will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and should not be favored on the road over the Beach tonight.

Long Beach State has only played six home games all season and is 5-1 SU at home.  That includes 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two conference home games beating Hawaii by 8 as 3-point favorites and Riverside by 8 as 7-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Long Beach State won by 5 as a PK and by 6 as 5.5-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Irvine.  Bet Long Beach State Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5

The New York Knicks are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including seven of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

Now I fully expect the Knicks to upset the defending champion Denver Nuggets at home tonight.  The Nuggets are 14-10 SU but 8-15-1 ATS on the road this season and have been vulnerable on the highway.  The Knicks are 14-5 SU & 11-7-1 ATS at home this season.

New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Knicks UNDER 222.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including seven of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

The UNDER is 11-1 in Knicks last 12 games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in nine of those 12 games.  The Knicks rank 27th in pace and 7th in defensive rating this season, which makes them a dead nuts UNDER team.

Now they take on another dead nuts UNDER team in the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets rank 28th in pace and 12th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Nuggets last three games overall combining for 202 points with the Celtics, 217 with the Wizards and 223 with the Pacers.  The Wizards and Pacers are dead nuts over teams playing at the two fastest paces in the entire NBA as well.

Denver is 15-1 UNDER in its last 16 games after playing three consecutive non-conference games this season.  The Nuggets are 14-6 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 224.5

The Miami Heat are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games and 12-2 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They have been held to 108 or fewer points in seven consecutive games, and 99 or fewer in five of those seven.  They could be without Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kevin Love tonight, and they are having chemistry issues trying to incorporate Terry Rozier Jr.

Miami ranks 29th in pace, 22nd in offensive rating and 9th in defensive rating.  The Heat have been getting after it defensively holding their last seven opponents to an average of just 102.6 points per game.  They can hold the Boston Celtics in check tonight.

The Celtics are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception was the 229 against a dead nuts over team in the Mavericks when the total was 240.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating and 17th in pace.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Miami and Boston with 215 combined points or fewer in four of those five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Kentucky -3.5

Northern Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Norse are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two losses coming on the road at Cleveland State by 3 as 4.5-point dogs and at Oakland by 5 as 6-point dogs.  

The Norse are coming off a pair of blowout home wins over quality Horizon League teams.  They beat Milwaukee 90-72 as 2-point favorites and Green Bay 74-52 as 6-point favorites to improve to 8-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season.  Now the Norse want revenge from a 73-60 loss at IPFW on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  They shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 and 11-of-21 (54.2%) from the FT line in that loss and can only improve.

IPFW is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall with three upset losses including a very bad 6-point home loss to IUPUI as 16.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Youngstown State, by 3 at Robert Morris and by 7 at Cleveland State in their last three road games.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Northern Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with IPFW winning the last two by 20 and 10 points.  IPFW is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 January games.  NKU is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five games ATS.  Bet Northern Kentucky Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Cleveland State +2.5

Cleveland State is 10-0 SU at home this season.  That includes wins over three of the best teams in the Horizon League in Oakland, Northern Kentucky and IPFW.  The Vikings should not be home underdogs to Wright State tonight.

The Vikings will be out for revenge from an 82-70 road loss at Wright State on January 4th in their first meeting earlier this month.  Wright State shot 60% from the field and 8-of-16 (50% from 3-point range, while Cleveland State shot 38.9% from the field, 9-of-27 (33%) from 3 and 5-of-13 (38.5%) from the FT line.  That's not going to happen again.

Wright State is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference road games this season without outright upset losses at Green Bay by 11 and at Milwaukee by 8, as well as a 10-point loss at Youngstown State.  Cleveland State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five regular season meetings with Wright State.  Bet Cleveland State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Green Bay +3

What more does Green Bay have to do to get some respect?  Green Bay is 7-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.  One of those losses came 79-73 at Oakland as 7.5-point road dogs.  Now the Phoenix get their shot at revenge at home this time around with first place in the Horizon on the line.

Oakland is overvalued off six consecutive victories with five of those wins coming by 7 points or fewer.  The Golden Grizzlies have just been fortunate in close games.  Their luck runs out tonight on the highway.  They made 14 more FT's than Green Bay in that first meeting which was the difference in that 6-point win.  I expect the home team to get the benefit of the whistle again here.

Green Bay is 7-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home in conference play beating Cleveland State by 8 as 1-point dogs, beating Robert Morris by 17 as 3-point favorites, upsetting Wright State by 11 as 7.5-point dogs and upsetting Milwaukee by 12 as 2-point dogs.

Oakland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing four consecutive games as a favorite.  Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in conference games this season.  The Phoenix are 9-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Green Bay is 9-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Bet Green Bay Thursday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +14

Valparaiso has quietly gone 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall not once losing by more than 9 points.  That includes a 59-50 upset win at Illinois State as a 10-point dog.  The Beacons only lost by 9 as 9.5-point home dogs to Southern Illinois.

Now Valparaiso is out for revenge on the Salukis and catching 14 points in the rematch on the road.  This number is too high, especially when you consider how poorly SIU is playing of late.  This is a team that lost a lot in the transfer portal and wasn't able to replace that talent.

Southern Illinois is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall losing by 18 at home to Drake, by 1 at home to Bradley and by 4 at Northern Iowa.  The Salukis just don't have the same kind of home-court advantage this season that they have in years' past.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Valpo a second time this season.

Valparaiso is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season.  The Beacons are 6-0 ATS vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Southern Illinois ranks 341st in adjusted tempo, making it hard for them to get margin because there just aren't enough possessions.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pistons OVER 234

La'Melo Ball recently returned from injury and makes the Hornets a dead nuts OVER team when he's on the court.  They play with more pace and are a much more efficient offensive team with him than without him.

We have seen that play out since he returned.  They have gone for 234 or more combined points with their opponents in four of the five games since he returned with the lone exception being a game against the Miami Heat, who are a dead nuts under team.  They went for 253 with Minnesota, 244 with San Antonio and 244 with New Orleans in his last three games.

The Detroit Pistons are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pistons have gone for 235 or more combined points with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall and 11 of their last 13 games as well.  This total of 234 is too short tonight given all these facts.

Detroit is 8-1 OVER off two or more consecutive ATS wins this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Bradley -8

Bradley has won eight consecutive games with seven of those eight wins coming by 11 points or more.  I fully expect them to win this game against Murray State by double-digits tonight.

It's revenge time for the Braves after losing 79-72 as 3.5-point favorites at Murray State back in November.  But the Braves are much healthier and playing a lot better since that defeat.  They beat Murray State 83-48 at home last season.

Murray State lost by 10 at home to Northern Iowa and by 9 at home to Indiana State in two of its last three games coming in.  Stepping up in class has not gone well for them.  The Racers have not been a good road team either, and Steve Prohm is one of the worst head coaches in all of college basketball.

Bradley is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 home games.  The Braves are 8-0 ATS in thier last eight home games off a win by 15 points or more.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on USF/Temple UNDER 146

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between Temple and USF this month.  The first resulted in a 76-68 home win for USF and 144 combined points.  I fully expect the 2nd meeting to be even more low scoring.

In fact, each of the last seven meetings between Temple and USF have seen 144 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 146-point total.

Temple ranks 279th in adjusted offense and 351st in effective FG% this season.  South Florida ranks 172nd in adjusted offense and 233rd in effective field goal percentage.  Both of these teams are much better defensively than they are on offense.

USF is 9-0 UNDER after playing a game as a favorite this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -5.5

Virginia is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 22.1 points per game.  They beat Virginia Tech by 8 and Louisville by 24 in covering each of their first two ACC home games this season.  They will win by 6-plus over NC State to cover this short number as well.

Virginia wants revenge from a 76-60 road loss at NC State on January 6th.  Now they get to host the Wolfpack, who are 0-2 ATS in ACC road games this season only winning by 2 at Notre Dam eas 5-point favorites and by 6 at Louisville as 7.5-point favorites.  This will be their toughest test of the season since a 9-point loss on a neutral to Tennessee.  They also lost by 20 at Ole Miss in another true road game.

Virginia lost by 14 at NC State last year and avenged that defeat with a 63-50 win as a 7.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  It will be more of the same this season.  Bet Virginia Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Xavier +8.5

Xavier is playing its best basketball of the season right now under head coach Sean Miller.  The Musketeers are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 1 at Villanova and by 5 at home to UConn.  They beat Seton Hall by 20 at home, won outright at Providence as underdogs by 20 and crushed Butler by 14 at home.

Creighton has been grossly overvalued for over a month.  The Bluejays are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They beat Seton Hall in triple-OT on Saturday and will still be feeling the after effects of that grueling game.  They should not be laying 8.5 points at home to Xavier tonight.

Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games beating St. John's by 1 as 6-point favorites, Providence by 9 as 11-point favorites, losing outright to Villanova as 9.5-point favorites and only beating Alabama by 3 as 7-point favorites.

Xavier is a perfect 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss this season.  The Musketeers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games off a SU win where they failed to cover the spread.  Xavier is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They have a way of playing up to their level of competition, and the Musketeers will give the Bluejays a run for their money tonight.  Bet Xavier Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 7th in pace and 5th in offensive rating.  They are scoring 121.7 points per game this season.  They put up 134 and 139 points in their two meetings with the Blazers this season.

The Blazers have been much more productive offensively here of late due to getting much healthier.  They are coming off a game that saw 244 combined points with the Lakers.  I think they can do enough offensively to push this one up and OVER the total.

Oklahoma City is 11-3 OVER when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Thunder will be fresh and ready to run up and down the court tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on New York -4

The New York Knicks are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Raptors.  They are in a great spot tonight rested coming off two days' rest and I expect them to make easy work of the Brooklyn Nets as a result.

The Nets are 4-15 SU & 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall and dealing with a bunch of trade rumors right now.  This is a terrible spot for the Nets returning home from a 3-game road trip that included two games in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers to close out the trip.  They will be flat tonight in their first game back home.

The Knicks have owned the Nets going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 18 and 24 at home and by 19 on the road, which was their lone meeting this season.  New York is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Duquesne ML -125

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Duquesne Dukes.  They have opened 0-5 SU &1-4 ATS in conference play and will be highly motivated for their first conference victory tonight.  They have played a brutal schedule with road games at UMass, Loyola-Chicago and St. Joe's as well as home losses to Dayton and Richmond.  They were competitive in all five games including a pair of 2-point losses in their last two.

St. Bonaventure is a team Duquesne can handle tonight.  They have opened 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play including road losses by 11 at Richmond and by 9 at George Mason in their last two games away from home.  The home team is 3-0 SU in the last three meetings in this head-to-head series.

St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5.  Bet Duquesne Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on UMass -3

The UMass Minutemen have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season under head coach Frank Martin.  He has turned this program around already going 12-6 SU & 13-5 ATS this season.  That includes 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home with a huge home-court advantage.  They beat Duquesne by 19, La Salle by 16 and George Washington by 14 in covering each of their last three home games.

This is a terrible spot for St. Joe's.  The Hawks are coming off three consecutive home games, including a 2-point win as 7.5-point favorites over Duquesne on Saturday at the buzzer.  That makes this a letdown spot for the Hawks.

St. Joe's is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three true road games.  They lost by 7 as 3-point dogs at Charleston, by 4 as 5.5-point favorites at Rhode Island and by 3 as 3-point favorites at St. Louis.  This will be one of their toughest road tests of the entire season tonight.

UMass is 7-0 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Minutemen are 7-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

20* Texas/Oklahoma ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma -4.5

Oklahoma has lost its last three meetings with Texas by a combined 5 points total.  It's safe to say the Sooners will be out for revenge tonight, and they finally have the goods to get that revenge.  Porter Moser's team is his best in Norman, while the Texas Longhorns have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.

Oklahoma is 15-3 SU this season including 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS at home.  The Sooners won and covered both Big 12 home games this season beating Iowa State by 8 as 1.5-point favorites and West Virginia by 14 as 12.5-point home favorites.  I have no doubt they win this game by 5-plus points over Texas tonight.

The Longhorns are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They lost by 21 at Marquette, won by 1 at Cincinnati and lost outright at West Virginia as 6-point favorites in their three true road games this season.  This is a letdown spot for Texas as well coming off a win over Baylor at the buzzer over the weekend.  That followed up an upset loss to UCF as 8.5-point home favorites.

Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Longhorns are 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgetown +3.5

First-year head coach Ed Cooley has the Georgetown Hoyas improving rapidly in recent weeks.  The Hoyas are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 4 at home to Seton Hall as 6.5-point dogs, losing by 13 at UConn as 21-point dogs and losing by 1 at Xavier as 12-point dogs.

Now the Hoyas will want revenge on Butler after losing by 10 on the road to the Bulldogs in their first meeting this season on December 19th.  This is an overvalued Bulldogs team that has gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are ripe for the upset tonight.

Butler is 0-7 ATS vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Georgetown Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +14.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been a lot more competitive than they are getting credit for.  That includes a 4-point loss to Milwaukee, a 2-point loss to Cleveland and a 6-point loss to Chicago.  I expect them to hang with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

This looks like a potential sleepy spot for the 76ers, who have won five consecutive games and have a five-game road trip coming up next.  They kind of sleep walked through their 97-89 win as 11-point favorites at Charlotte on Saturday.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.

This is the final game of a 5-game road trip for the Spurs and I always feel like teams are more motivated in that final game on a road trip to end it with a win.  San Antonio will give Philadelphia a run for its money tonight.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Magic UNDER 216.5

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team going 7-1 UNDER in its last eight games overall.  Orlando and its opponents have combined for 212 or fewer points in six of its last seven games.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Magic tonight.

The Cleveland Cavaliers remain without two of their best scorers in Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.  One of their top bench scorers in Caris LeVert is questionable as well.  The Cavaliers have had to rely a lot on defense without these guys, and they have done a great job of it.  Indeed, Cleveland has allowed 102 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 UNDER during this stretch.

This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these teams already.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Cavs and Magic combined for just 198 points in their most recent meeting on December 11th.  In fact, the Cavs and Magic have combined for 214 or fewer points in 16 of their last 20 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Wake Forest/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 155.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 28th in adjusted offense and are scoring 81.1 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in eight of their last 10 games overall and 76 or more in nine of 10 with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

North Carolina is also an OVER team ranking 53rd in adjusted tempo and 15th in adjusted offense.  The Tar Heels are scoring 83.4 points per game this season.  I expect the Tar Heels to get 80-plus in this one and the Demon Deacons to likely get close or exceed 80 as well.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 177, 167, 174, 153 and 176 combined points in those five meetings.  They have averaged 169.4 combined points per game in those five, which is roughly 14 points more than this 155.5-point total.  There is serious value on the OVER as a result.

Wake Forest is 14-1 OVER in its last 15 January games.  The Demon Deacons are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Wake Forest is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Chiefs/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City +3

Note: Buy to +3 (-125) or better

I've been riding the Buffalo Bills with regularity since their bye week.  The Bills returned from their bye and went on the road and beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 in a controversial finish.  I was fortunate to cash that ticket on the Bills, who are 6-0 SU since their bye week.  But now it's time to buck the Bills and back the Chiefs in the NFL Divisional Round.

The Chiefs have the rest advantage and the injury advantage.  The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 on Saturday in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were held to four field goals as they struggled in the red zone or would have won by even more.  Now they have had the last seven days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  That's especially the case since they rested their starters in Week 18.

The Bills did not have the luxury of getting to rest their starters in Week 18.  They needed to beat the Dolphins to win the division and get the No. 2 seed.  They came back from a 14-7 halftime deficit to beat the Dolphins 21-14.  It was their 3rd consecutive dog fight after beating the Chargers 24-22 on the road and the Patriots 27-21 at home.  Then they beat the Steelers 31-17 at home last week, but their defense was on the field for the majority of the 2nd half.

That game against the Steelers was played on Monday as it was moved due to weather.  Now the Bills only have five days' rest and not much time to prepare for the Chiefs.  The Bills lost several defensive starters to injury against the Steelers to boot.  Now the Bills have 6 defensive starters questionable to play in this game.  These 6 have combined for 548 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 35 passes defended and 91 of a possible 102 starts.  The Bills would be lucky if they even have half of them available.  Not to mention, No. 2 WR Gabe Davis is hurt and may not play this week.

The Chiefs had basically a bye in Week 18 to rest their starters.  They came back fresh and ready to go and crushed the Dolphins 26-7.  Their offense worked as well as it has all season with 409 total yards on the Dolphins.  They rushed for 167 yards and Mahomes found some chemistry with his receivers.  Rashee Rice had eight receptions for 130 yards and a TD while Travis Kelce has seven receptions for 71 yards in the win.  I expect Mahomes and company to have a monster game against this banged up Buffalo defense.

Josh Allen has been a walking turnover this season and I think he will give the ball to the Chiefs one or two times that will be the difference in this game.  The Chiefs outgained the Bills 346 to 327 and 5.6 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play in that first meeting in Kansas City.  Those numbers would have been even worse if the TD from Mahomes, to Kelce, to Toney stood had Toney not been called for being offsides in a tick-tack call.  The Chiefs want their revenge, and given all their advantages coming into this one in rest and injuries, I expect them to get that revenge.

Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Mahomes is 7-0 SU in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds in his career.  The Chiefs are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog with their lone loss coming with Alex Smith at QB in 2017.  Buffalo is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games following four or more consecutive wins.  Andy Reid is 42-22 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday night.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Magic UNDER 215.5

Miami is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Heat last 12 games overall and 5-0 in their last five.  They have gone for 218 or fewer combined points in five consecutive games and played two dead nuts over teams in that stretch in Toronto and Atlanta, the only two games that would have gone over this total.

One of those five games was against Orlando on January 12th.  The Heat won that game 99-96 for just 195 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and it should be more of the same here in the rematch.

Orlando is also a dead nuts UNDER team going 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games overall.  Orlando and its opponents have combined for 212 or fewer points in five of its last six games.  Simply put, this total has been set too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.