20* Alabama/Tennessee ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Alabama +3.5

I've been fading Tennessee and will continue to do so tonight.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 13 as 4.5-point favorites at Florida, by 1 as 10-point road favorites at Vanderbilt and by 1 as 12.5-point home favorites to Missouri.  They also only beat Auburn by 3 as 9.5-point home favorites during this stretch.

The Volunteers have really been struggling on offense which is why they cannot be trusted, scoring 56 against Florida, 46 against Auburn and 65 against Vanderbilt.  Two of their best players in James (9.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and Phillips (9.0 PG, 4.8 APG) are questionable to play tonight and won't be 100% if they do.

Now Tennessee must face the No. 1 team in the country in Alabama, which ranks 13th in adjusted offense and 5th in adjusted defense and has no weaknesses.  The Crimson Tide come in winning four consecutive games scoring 101, 79, 97 and 77 points.  They are elite defensively amazingly allowing 69 or fewer points in 13 of their last 14 games overall while going 13-1 SU during this stretch.  I just don't think the Volunteers have the offense to hang with them in this one.

Alabama is 10-2 ATS against conference opponents this season, far and away the best team in the SEC.  Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Alabama Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas/Oklahoma State UNDER 140.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off tonight when Kansas visits Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys rank 5th in the country in adjusted defense while the Jayhawks rank 11th.  It's safe to say points will be hard to come by tonight.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Cowboys and Jayhawks.  Kansas won 69-67 at home for 136 combined points on December 31st.  Both teams were lights out from 3 in that game as well as the Cowboys were 13-of-29 (44.8%) and the Jayhawks were 11-of-23 (47.8%).  It's highly unlikely both teams shoot that well again, and that game saw just 136 combined points.  Each of the last three meetings have seen 138 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Oklahoma State's last six home games with a total of 140 to 149.5.  Kansas is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after covering four of its last five games.  The Cowboys are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine home games when playing against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, Denver and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

I just cashed the Magic +5 last night in their 100-91 outright win at Chicago.  Now this line has been adjusted too much for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can handle these situations better than most.

The Toronto Raptors cannot be trusted to lay this kind of a number right now.  They only beat the Pistons by 1 as 11-point home favorites last time out, and they lost by 6 to Utah as 8.5-point favorites the game prior.  This is a step up in class for Toronto.

Orlando upset Toronto in each of their last two meetings this season winning 113-109 as 8-point dogs and 111-99 as 7-point dogs.  The Raptors are 16-46 ATS in their last 62 games when revenging two consecutive SU loss as a favorite.  Toronto is 5-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -8.5

The Boston Celtics stand little chance of keeping this game competitive tonight considering they are going to be without their three best players in Jayson Tatum (30.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 4.5 APG), Jaylen Brown (26.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and Marcus Smart (11.1 PPG, 7.2 APG).  It's simply too much for them to overcome tonight.  Not to mention, Robert Williams and Grant Williams are both questionable as well.

The Milwaukee Bucks won't be taking the Celtics lightly without these guys, either.  They trail the Celtics for 1st place in the East and this will be a National TV game, so they will be putting their best foot forward.  It's amazing how good this team is when healthy and it has shown over the past couple weeks during their current 10-game winning streak.  Nine of the 10 wins have come by 8 points or more.

The Bucks are 16-6 ATS as favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Milwaukee is 23-5 SU & 18-10 ATS at home this season.  The Bucks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. good offensive teams that average 116 or more points per game.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse ML +100

Syracuse is 9-5 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season.  The Orange are coming off consecutive road wins over Boston College and Florida State.  They are in a great spot here with five days off to rest and prepare for NC State.

I'll gladly 'sell high' on the Wolfpack, who are coming off a 92-62 win at Boston College which followed up a 13-point loss at Virginia.  The Wolfpack only have two days off to rest and prepare for Syracuse.  So the advantage in rest and preparation goes to the Orange in a big way tonight, and it should lead to a victory.

NC State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 85 points or more.  Syracuse is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Orange are 6-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Wolfpack are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a win.  The Orange are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Syracuse on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +3.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Illinois Fighting Illini.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and now find themselves favored on the road at Penn State.  This is a Penn State team they already lost by 15 to at home in their first meeting this season.

Conversely, we'll 'buy low' on the Nittany Lions following four consecutive losses.  The Nittany Lions are 11-2 SU at home this season with their two losses coming in OT to Wisconsin and to Michigan State.  They have beaten the likes of Michigan by 22, Indiana by 19 and Iowa by 4 at home this season.

Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after playing a game as a road underdog.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Penn State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss.  The Nittany Lions are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall.  The underdog is 21-10-2 ATS in the last 33 meetings.  Bet Penn State Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off two huge upset wins over Tennessee as 10-point home dogs and Florida as 8.5-point road dogs.  Now they'll fall flat on their faces tonight on the road at South Carolina.

The Gamecocks are playing well right now going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 2 at home to Arkansas as 12.5-point dogs, by 9 at Missouri as 15-point dogs and upsetting Ole Miss by 3 as 9-point road dogs.

Now the Gamecocks have their sights set on revenge from a 79-84 (OT) road loss at Vanderbilt as 10-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  So they've already proven they can play with the Commodores on the road, and now they are catching 5 points at home in the rematch.  The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet South Carolina Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +4

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and I fully expect them to upset the Golden State Warriors tonight.  The Wizards are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are primed for another big effort.

I'm looking to fade the Warriors without Stephen Curry until he returns.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Blazers and Lakers, who didn't even have LeBron James.  They could be without Andrew Wiggins, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  They just should not be favored over the Wizards given the state of these two teams currently.

The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Wizards are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a great spot tonight.  They coming in on two days' rest and have the next two days off after this game.  They will be 'all in' tonight in Dallas a result, and it should be enough to cover this 8-point spread and possibly win this game outright.

Dallas won both games with Kyrie Irving and without Luka Doncic, but then lost the game they both made their debut together against the Kings.  The Mavericks will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after two shootouts with the Kings in Sacramento.  I fully expect the Mavericks to be overvalued the rest the way with Irving and Doncic, who are both great on offense but terrible on defense.

Minnesota is 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with Dallas with two losses coming by 2 and 5 points.  So the Timberwolves have lost just one game in their last seven meetings with the Mavericks by more than this 8-point margin.

The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss, and 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss as well.  Dallas is 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +5

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, Denver and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

Now the Magic have their sights set on revenge from a 109-128 home loss to the Chicago Bulls on January 28th two weeks ago.  That was a terrible spot for the Magic playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a loss at Miami the night before.  It was also their 6th game in 9 days and they had nothing left in the tank for the Bulls.

Now they face a Chicago team not playing well at all going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with losses by 15 at Memphis, by 11 at Brooklyn and by 8 at Cleveland.  The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here and are starting to run out of gas heading into the All-Star Break.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss, and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Chicago.  Bet the Magic Monday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles ML -120

Note: Scroll down to the bottom for my FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets

This is a great matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles.  They will be able to run the football at will on the Kansas City Chiefs on offense, and they are perfectly set up to stop them defensively with their ability to defend the pass.  The Eagles are better everywhere than the Chiefs except at quarterback and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.

The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL at 153.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  And they faced the 2nd-easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses, so they haven't seen anything like this physical, read-option attack of the Eagles.  Philadelphia faced a Top 10 schedule of opposing rush defenses, making their numbers even more impressive.

The Chiefs won't be able to run on Philadelphia and likely will abandon the running game for the most part.  Mahomes isn't close to 100% and that showed against the Bengals as he didn't scramble until the game was on the line.  He either moved up in the pocket or rolled out to the right, so the Eagles will be prepared for those two moves.  The Eagles rank 1st in the NFL allowing just 171.0 passing yards per game, 1st in sack percentage (11.49%) and 1st in sacks per game (4.1).  The Chiefs have two of the four worst offensive tackles in the NFL in terms of pressures allowed.  Mahomes is going to be under duress for four quarters in this one.

A lot has been made about how the Eagles played the easiest schedule in the NFL.  And while true, they handled their business.  A counter argument is that the Eagles are actually 7-1 against teams with winning records this season while outscoring them by a total of 115 points, or by an average of 14.4 points per game.   They had an easy path to the Super Bowl and will be fresh as a result after getting a bye, beating the Giants by 31 and the 49ers by 24 while receiving another bye prior to the Super Bowl.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh.

Kansas City consistently found itself in one-possession games this season, including both playoff games with a 7-point win over the Jaguars and a 3-point win over the Bengals in which they are aided by the refs.  They also had more injuries pile up in that win over the Bengals.  They are without WR Hardman, while both Toney and Smith-Schuster are less than 100%.  They also have CB Sneed and LB Gay banged up.  The Eagles are in much better shape health-wise.

This line moved towards the Eagles on the opener and I agree with it.  When the line moves towards one team in the Super Bowl off the opener, those teams have gone 11-4 ATS over the last 15 tries.  The only reason the Eagles aren't -3 here is because the Chiefs have Mahomes.  But the Eagles are better everywhere else and have no weaknesses.  I expect them to lead from start to finish in this one as a result, just as they have for most of the season when Hurts has been on the field.

The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Kansas City is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a SU win.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine playoff games.  The last 9 reigning MVP's (Mahomes) who played in the Super Bowl all lost dating back to 2001.  Bet the Eagles on the Money Line in Super Bowl 57 Sunday.

FREE Super Bowl Prop Bets:

These are my favorite prop bets in order from strongest to weakest, so adjust your bet sizing accordingly. Don't go too crazy on these. They can all be found at DraftKings.

Eagles 1H ML: -120

OVER 1.5 4th Down Conversions: -160

Kelce Anytime TD: -125

Eagles Most Sacks: -125

Both Teams to Score 1+ Rushing TD: +125

UNDER 3.5 Made FG's: -165

Largest Lead UNDER 14.5 Points: -135

Kelce OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards: -120

Sanders Anytime TD: +125

Chiefs UNDER 99.5 Rushing Yards: -110

Sanders OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards: -110

Will Both Teams make a 33-plus Yard FG: NO -115

Smith Longest Reception OVER 23.5: -125

Eagles OVER 2.5 Sacks: -140

2-Point Conversion Attempt: YES +120

Super Bowl MVP Bets:

Sanders 22/1

Smith 30/1

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5

The Detroit Pistons aren't tanking contrary to popular belief.  They kept almost everyone at the trade deadline including Bojan Bogdanovic (21.5 PPG), who was one of the hottest trade pieces on the market.  They promptly won their first game since the deadline over the Spurs at home.

The Toronto Raptors promptly were upset as 8.5-point home favorites to the Utah Jazz in their first game since the deadline.  They cannot be trusted here as 11.5-point favorites over the Pistons, especially when you consider how Detroit has had their number in recent meetings.

Indeed, the Pistons are actually 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Raptors with six outright upsets as underdogs of 5 points or more in all six.  Their lone loss came by 4 points.  They just match up well with the Raptors clearly, and they won't go down without a fight today.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are broken.  They are 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have upset home losses to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern in their last three home games and are now 3.5-point favorites over Michigan State in a game I fully expect the Spartans to win outright.

The spot is much better for the Spartans.  They have had the last four days off to rest and prepare for Ohio State.  Meanwhile, the Buckeyes just lost at home to Northwestern on Thursday and have only two days to get ready for the Spartans.

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 65 points or fewer in three consecutive games.  Ohio State is 1-11 ATS following a conference game this season.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +7

Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season.  They have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games with upset wins at Colorado and at home against Arizona State.  They also only lost by 3 at Arizona, by 8 at ASU, by 9 at UCLA and by 6 at USC playing some of their best basketball on the road.

The Huskies are now catching too many points once again here on the road in this rivalry with Washington State.  The Cougars have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country at 10-15 SU this season.  They are have lost five of their last six games overall including three by double-digits.  They have no business being a 7-point favorite here.

Washington State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after scoring 60 points or fewer.  Washington is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a conference road loss.  The Huskies are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer FT's per game after 15-plus games.  The Huskies are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss.  The underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Washington Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon +2.5

Death, taxes and Dana Altman having Oregon playing its best basketball as the NCAA Tournament approaches.  That's the case for the Ducks again this season, winning four of its last five games with the only loss coming on the road at Arizona.  The Ducks beat Colorado by 6, Utah by 12 and USC by 18 at home while also winning at Arizona State.

This is a better spot for the Ducks coming off that 18-point home win over USC on Thursday.  They get to stay at home while UCLA has to travel again after winning at Oregon State on Thursday.  The Bruins lost their previous two road games at Arizona by 6 and at USC by 13.

Oregon wants revenge from a 56-65 loss at UCLA in their first meeting this season in which they blew a 6-point halftime lead and watched the Bruins pull away late.  Oregon upset UCLA 68-63 as identical 2.5-point home dogs last season.  The Ducks are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +5.5

Tim Miles knows how to turn around a bottom feeder program.  He did it at Nebraska, and he's doing it this season at San Jose State.  The Spartans are 14-10 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 15-8 ATS in all lined games.  They are 9-2 SU at home this season and should not be this big of home underdogs to Utah State.

I love the spot for the Spartans out for revenge from a 74-75 loss as 11.5-point dogs at Utah State in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Aggies on the road, so they can certainly compete at home here and will likely pull off the outright upset.

Utah State only has two days to get over their 61-63 home loss to San Diego State.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat here.  San Jose State has had three days off to get ready for this game after losing at Fresno State last time out.  The Spartans have won their last three conference home games by 20, 30 and 10 points.

San Jose State is 8-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Spartans are 8-1 ATS following a loss this season.  The Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Spartans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss.  San Jose State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova -3.5

The Villanova Wildcats are as healthy as they have been all season as they just recently got Justin Moore back from injury.  He has shaken the rust off and the Wildcats have played three straight impressive games despite losing two of them.  

They were beating Marquette basically the entire way on the road before losing by 9 in a misleading final.  They only lost by 5 at Creighton in a game they had a chance to win.  And then they returned home and took out their frustration in an 81-65 win over DePaul.  Now they will get a signature win here against Seton Hall to help their tournament resume.

Seton Hall is coming off a 13-point home loss to Creighton after a lackluster 5-point home win over DePaul.  The Pirates just don't win at Villanova.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 16-1 SU & 10-7 ATS in the last 17 home meetings.  This is a very short number for them to be laying at home.

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record after 15-plus games.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +2.5

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, Denver and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The spot favors the Magic tonight as they had Friday off, while Miami just had to go to the wire in a 97-95 home win over lowly Houston as 12-point favorites.  A big reason the Heat struggled is because they are short-handed right now playing without Lowry, Oladipo and Robinson.  Now they'll have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back after having four players play at least 34 minutes last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for Orlando.

The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Heat are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Miami is 9-23-2 ATS in its last 34 games following a win.  The Heat are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games playing on zero rest.  The Magic are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Brooklyn Nets +3.5

I have the Brooklyn Nets circled as a 'buy low' team moving forward.  They just traded away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving but got back some great pieces in those trades that will have them playing team basketball moving forward.  I like Dinwiddie, Finney-Smith, Bridge and Johnson a lot.  

Not to mention, Cam Thomas is on an absolute tear scoring 44, 47, 43 and 20 points in his last four games.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over Chicago and Washington as well as narrow losses to the Clippers and Suns.  I fully expect them to upset the 76ers tonight.

This is a terrible spot for the 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a comeback 119-108 home win over New York last night.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Embiid played 37 minutes, Harden 37, Harris 34, Maxey 32 and Tucker 30 last night.  Don't be surprised if they rest Embiid or others here.

Brooklyn is 13-5 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Nets are 8-1 ATS in home games after covering four or five of their last six games this season.  The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri +11.5

The Missouri Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season in the first year under Dennis Gates.  They are 18-6 with only three losses by more than this margin all season.  I fully expect them to give Tennessee a run for its money today.

Tennessee plays great defense, but they can't be trusted to get margin due to a very poor offense.  The Volunteers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall largely due to their struggles on offense.  They scored 54 points in a 13-point loss at Florida, scored 46 points and somehow beat Auburn by 3 at home, and scored 65 points in an upset loss at Vanderbilt as double-digit favorites.

Missouri is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following three consecutive games where they forced 14 or fewer turnovers.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  It's also worth noting that Josiah-Jordan James (9.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is questionable for the Volunteers.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson +8

Rumors surrounding Caleb Love and RJ Davis have swirled for the UNC Tar Heels and it's no wonder they have played so poorly of late.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing at home to Pitt outright as 8.5-point favorites and on the road to Duke by 6 and Wake Forest by 7.  They cannot be trusted as 8-point home favorites here against Clemson even if there weren't rumors causing turmoil in the locker room.

Clemson is a legit team that is getting healthier now and will give UNC a run for its money.  I love the spot for the Tigers, who are coming off two consecutive losses and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  They also come in rested having last played on Saturday, getting a full week to prepare for UNC.  The Tar Heels just played on Tuesday at Wake Forest and don't have the same luxury.

UNC is 2-8 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Clemson is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Tigers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tar Heels are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  This one will go down to the wire today folks.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -4.5

Illinois is 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Now the Fighting Illini have had a full week to get ready for Rutgers and be pissed off from their 2-point loss at Iowa.  They will be ready to go at home today, where they are 11-2 SU & 8-4 ATS this season.

Rutgers has one of the biggest home/road splits in the country.  The Scarlet Knights are just 2-5 SU in true road games losing their last three by 6 at Indiana, by 11 at Iowa and by 13 at Michigan State.  They just lost starting C Mawot Mag (7.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury in that loss to Michigan State and are lacking interior defense without him.  That's bad news going up against Illinois here.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is has won six consecutive meetings while also going 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +9

It's time to 'buy low' on the Penn State Nittany Lions today.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall and really need a win for the NCAA Tournament.  I think they have a great shot to pull off this upset let alone staying within single-digits of the Terrapins.

We'll 'sell high' on Maryland, which has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and is now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  The only Big Ten games they've been favored by this much came against Nebraska at home and Minnesota on the road, the two worst teams in the Big Ten.  Penn State is several notches better than those two squads.

This has been a closely-contested rivalry in recent meetings.  In fact, 11 of the last 12 meetings have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  Penn State hasn't lost any of its last 12 meetings with Maryland by more than 7 points, making for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Nittany Lions pertaining to this 9-point spread.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Penn State/Maryland UNDER 135.5

This total is a couple notches too high today when you consider how these two teams play.  Maryland ranks 283rd in adjusted tempo and 25th in defensive efficiency.  Penn State ranks 305th in adjusted tempo and 106th in defensive efficiency.  This game will clearly be played at a snail's pace today folks, plus it's a sleepy early 12:00 EST start time.

Recent head-to-head history also shows points will be hard to come by.  Maryland and Penn State have combined for 128, 127 and 105 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  The Terrapins are 17-7 UNDER in all games this season and are a dead nuts UNDER team.

Maryland is 10-2 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Nittany Lions last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 14-4 in Terrapins last 18 games overall.  The UNDER is 40-19 in Terrapins last 59 Saturday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Fresno State +9.5

Nevada is in a massive letdown spot here after hitting a game-winner at the buzzer to upset New Mexico 77-76 on the road on Tuesday.  They have now won and covered three consecutive games, and now it's time to 'sell high' on the Wolf Pack.  Asking them to beat Fresno State by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Bulldogs come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  After upsetting UNLV as 9-point road dogs, they came back home and handled their business in a 70-62 win over San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites.  Now they'll be looking to pull the upset over the Wolf Pack tonight.

Nevada is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 home games vs. slow-down teams that average 53 or fewer shots per game.  Justin Hutson is 11-3 ATS in February road games as the coach of the Bulldogs.  Bet Fresno State Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Kings OVER 233.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  The OVER is 3-0 in Kings last three games overall coming in with combined scores of 268, 260 and 240 points.

The Mavericks are now an OVER team with the trade for Kyrie Irving and books haven't adjusted yet.  They now have three elite scorers in Doncic, Irving and Wood and a bunch of question marks defensively.  They shot 52.6% in their first game with Irving in an upset win over the Clippers.

Sacramento is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 February home games.  The OVER is 16-7-1 in Kings last 24 home games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -1.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks after winning four of their last five and covering four consecutive games coming in.  That includes an upset win on National TV as 8-point dogs at the Clippers in their first game with Kyrie Irving.  Now this is a letdown spot for them to say the least, and there are going to be chemistry issues for a few games after these trades.

The Kings have good chemistry and didn't make any moves over the deadline.  They like their team as it's easy to see why as they have gone 11-5 SU in their last 16 games overall and rank 2nd in the entire NBA in offensive efficiency.  They will test this weak Dallas defense that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and got even worse when trading for Irving while losing Finney-Smith.

Dallas is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a win.  The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Kings are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 23-8-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home meetings.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 33-20-1 ATS in all games this season and have been the most profitable team to back over the past two seasons.  They have gone 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with six outright upsets.  I fully expect them to upset the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are dealing with a ton of injuries right now and are playing horrific defense.  They have allowed 112 or more points in 10 consecutive games and 14 o their last 15 games overall.  Now they face a potent Thunder offense that has scored 111 or more points in 16 of their last 18 games overall.

Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following three consecutive games where they committed 4-plus more turnovers than their opponents.  The Thunder are 17-6 ATS as road underdogs this season.  Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Thunder are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 road games.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Portland.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3

The New Orleans Pelicans are still undervalued after a recent 10-game losing streak.  I have backed them in two of their last three games since where they've gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS as 1.5-point favorites over the Lakers, 2-point dogs to the Kings and 1-point favorites over the Hawks.  They won those three games by a combined 46 points.

Now the Pelicans are once again undervalued as 3-point home dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Cleveland has one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA this season.  The Cavaliers are just 12-16 SU & 11-15-2 ATS on the road this season and should not be favored over the Pelicans here.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after winning four of its last five games.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six Friday games.  New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Cleveland.  The Pelicans are 20-9 SU & 16-12-1 ATS at home this season.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +8.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the St. Mary's Gaels.  They are coming off their huge comeback win over Gonzaga 78-70 (OT) on Saturday.  They have been celebrating that win all week and won't be focused for Loyola-Marymount tonight.  Don't be surprised if they lose outright as a result, let alone cover this 8.5-point spread.

Loyola-Marymount has played very well at home this season going 11-2 SU & 9-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  The Lions want revenge from a 62-76 loss at St. Mary's in their first meeting this season on January 12th.  I like their chances of staying within 8.5 points at home this time around given the terrible spot for the Gaels.

Loyola-Marymount is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  Loyola-Marymount is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  Bet Loyola-Marymount Thursday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Ohio State Buckeyes after going just 1-9 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are much better than they have shown and have been a hard-luck team, losing eight of the nine games by single-digits.  In fact, they are single-most unlucky team in the country according to KenPom's luck rating.

It's easy to see how we are buying low on the Buckeyes when you consider they were 2.5-point road favorites at Northwestern in their first meeting this season, and now are only 5-point home favorites for the rematch.  A normal home-court adjustment in college basketball is 6 to 8 points, which would mean they'd be 7.5 to 9.5-point favorites.  We are clearly getting them at a discount here.

Ohio State owns Northwestern going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 16, 8 and 10 points.  They won 73-57 at Northwestern in their first meeting this season, and I expect a similar blowout at home this time around.  The Wildcats are 18-40-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

Now the Magic are out for revenge from a narrow 116-119 loss at Denver as 10.5-point underdogs on January 15th in their first meeting this season.  I like their chances of staying within 6.5 points at home in the rematch and likely pulling off the upset tonight.  Denver is just 1-3 SU in its last four road games with its lone win coming by a single point.

Denver is 1-9 ATS in road games following three consecutive games where it made 47% of its shots or better this season.  The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 32-2 system backing Orlando tonight.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Warriors/Blazers OVER 234.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team right now playing without Jusuf Nurkic.  They have been force to go small ball and it has led to a ton of high scoring games.  In fact, the Blazers and their opponents have combined for at least 233 points in eight of their last nine games overall.

The Warriors will have no problem going small and getting up and down with the Blazers tonight.  The Warriors and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in 14 consecutive games.  The OVER is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall during this stretch.  They just scored 141 points on the Thunder in their first game without Curry, and this total has been adjusted too much down due to him being out.

The OVER is 7-0 in Warriors' seven road games with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  Golden State is 14-1 OVER in its last 15 games vs. a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) in the second half of the season.  The OVER is 35-14-3 in Warriors last 52 road games.  The OVER is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings in Portland.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Rockets OVER 238.5

This is a low total for a game involving the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings, who are both dead nuts OVER teams.  The recent head-to-head history really shows that as well.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 260, 253, 250, 239 and 239 points.  The Kings and Rockets have combined for at least 230 points in eight consecutive meetings as well.  They have gone for 250, 253 and 260 points in their three meetings this season.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Wichita State -2

Wichita State is playing well right now going 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall with two upset victories and the only losses coming on the road to Memphis by 10, to Tulane by 5 at home and to Houston by 9 in a game they nearly upset the Cougars before they pulled away late.

Now Wichita State wants revenge from a 45-52 loss at UCF in their first meeting this season where the Shockers shot just 35% from the field.  But this isn't the same UCF team as they faced in that first meeting.  This is an injury-ravaged Knights team that has gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with an 8-point loss at Tulane, a 13-point loss at USF, an 11-point home loss to Houston, as 7-point home loss to Temple and a 9-point loss at Cincinnati.

UCF is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following two or more consecutive overs.  The Knights are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games.  The Knights are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Wichita State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois State +9

Illinois State has been competitive of late going 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  One of those games resulted in a 75-79 loss as 15-point underdogs at Bradley in their first meeting on January 25th.  I like their chances of staying within 9 points in the rematch at home tonight just two weeks later.

The Redbirds have really been good at home of late going 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games and only losing once all season at home by double-digits.  Bradley is 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  The Braves are 2-8 ATS in road games following a win this season.  The Braves are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games overall.  The Redbirds are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games.  The underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Illinois State Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +10.5

Tennessee is clearly one of the most overrated teams in the country.  That has played out recently with an upset loss at Florida by 13 and a narrow 3-point win over Auburn at home last time out.  Their offense cannot be trusted as they scored 54 points against Florida and 46 against Auburn.

That's going to make it hard for them to win by double-digits here on the road against Vanderbilt.  After all, they only won by 9 at home in their first meeting with the Commodores this season.  And Vanderbilt always played Tennessee tough with each of the last three meetings decided by 9 points or fewer.  They will be motivated for revenge here.

The underdog is 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 February games.  Plays against road favorites or PK (Tennessee) - after going under the total by 30 points or more total in their last five games, a top-level team (80% or higher) playing a losing team are 46-11 (80.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso +13.5

Valparaiso has quietly gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with two of their losses coming in overtime to Missouri State and Drake.  The other was an 11-point loss at Northern Iowa.  So they haven't lost by this kind of margin in any of their last seven games.

Indiana State is in a letdown spot following three consecutive victories over Northern Iowa, Evansville and Murray State, three of the worst teams in the MVC.  They actually lost their previous five games.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Valpo again after winning by 18 on the road as 6.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  

So this is a 7-point adjustment for home-court advantage, which is too much.  Valpo isn't going to shoot 29.5% from the field and 3-of-22 (13.6%) from 3-point range like they did in that first meeting.  I expect the Beacons to continue playing well and to take the Sycamores to the wire in the rematch tonight.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on UNC-Wilmington +10

UNC-Wilmington is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games overall with two of those losses coming by exactly 2 points.  One of those was a 69-71 home loss to Charleston in their first meeting this season on January 11th as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 10 points on the road in the rematch, and I love the value with the revenge-minded road team here.

Charleston has finally started to show some chinks in the armor.  They have lost two of their last three games to Hofstra as 9-point home favorites and Drexel as 7.5-point road favorites.  The Cougars are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and remain overvalued due to their 22-3 record on the season.

This has been a closely-contested rivalry in recent meetings with each of the last four meetings decided by 8 points or fewer.  Wilmington hasn't lost any of its last eight meetings with Charleston by double-digits.  The underdog is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

The Seahawks are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wilmington is 35-14-2 ATS in its last 51 games overall.  The Seahawks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine Wednesday games.  The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Wilmington is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after winning four of its last five games.  Bet UNC-Wilmington Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT Oklahoma City +6.5

The Los Angeles Lakers return home from a grueling five-game road trip at Boston, Brooklyn, New York, Indiana and New Orleans.  I always like fading teams in that first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions back home.

Speaking of distractions, LeBron James needs 37 points tonight to break Kareem's All-Time scoring record.  I expect the Lakers to be playing a lot of 1 on 5 tonight because of it.  That's not going to work for them to beat the Thunder by 7-plus points, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Thunder after getting blown out at Golden State last night where Klay Thompson made 12 3-pointers and nothing went right for them.  The good news is that they are still fresh now as no player played more than 30 minutes for the Thunder last night.

Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Los Angeles.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Thunder are 13-2 ATS after losing four or five of their last six games this season.  Oklahoma City is 7-0 ATS after three straight games committing four-plus more turnovers than their opponent this season.  The Thunder are 9-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Murray State +3.5

The Drake Bulldogs have won five consecutive games but have been very fortunate, winning two in double-OT and one by 2 points.  They are coming off consecutive double-OT games against Northern Iowa at home and Valpo on the road and are out of gas.  They will now be playing their 4th game in 9 days and this is one of the worst spots I've seen for any team all season in college basketball.

Now they have to travel to face Murray State, which is coming off a blowout loss at Indiana State and will be fresh for this one as a result.  The Racers have one of the best home-court advantages in the entire country as they are 9-1 SU at home this season.  They are primed for an upset of the Bulldogs tonight.

Drake is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite or PK.  The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Murray State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games following a conference game.  Drake is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Racers are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Bet Murray State Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans ML -120

It's 'buy low' time on the New Orleans Pelicans after going 2-10 SU in their last 12 games overall.  But they are getting healthier and are only without Zion Williamson, who should return soon.  They are coming off two straight home wins over the Lakers by 5 and Kings by 32 and should top the Atlanta Hawks tonight as well.

New Orleans is 19-9 SU at home this season, while Atlanta is 14-16 SU & 13-17 ATS on the road.  This is a very tough spot for the Hawks playing their 5th consecutive road game.  They just lost by 20 at Denver last time out.

The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest.  They are getting too much respect due to coming in on two days' rest.  The Pelicans have two days off after this and will be 'all in' for this game tonight.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic ML +105

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The Magic should not be home underdogs to the New York Knicks tonight.  The Knicks are a tired team right now playing their 3rd game in 4 days and have played three OT games in their past six.  They are coming off an upset win over the 76ers at home on ESPN Sunday, and this is now a letdown spot for them.  They have played the Cavs, Celtics, Nets, Lakers, Heat, Clippers and 76ers in their last seven games and now they will take a breather here against the Magic.

The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* Marquette/UConn Big East ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4

It's time to 'sell high' on the Marquette Golden Eagles after going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Now they will face arguably their toughest test of the entire season tonight.  The other candidates would be their road losses at Purdue, at Providence and at Xavier earlier this season all by 4 points or more.

Now they have to travel to face a pissed off UConn team that will be looking for revenge from a 76-82 loss at Marquette in their first meeting this season.  Marquette shot 50.8% from the field and 37.5% from 3 while UConn only shot 27.3% from 3.  Those roles will be reversed this time around.

UConn is 11-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  They shoot 47.6% overall and 36% from 3 at home this season.  This one has blowout written all over it tonight given the factors coming in.

The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Huskies are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Bet UConn Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +4

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry at least until after the All-Star Break.  They shouldn't be favored over the Oklahoma City Thunder without him tonight.  The Thunder are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA going 32-19-1 ATS in all games this season, including 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

The Thunder come in the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Warriors will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Oklahoma City wants revenge from a 120-128 home loss to the Warriors on January 30th just a week ago when Curry scored 38 points and made eight 3-pointers.

Oklahoma City is 42-20-1 ATS in its last 63 road games.  The Thunder are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. teams that are called for 2-plus more fouls per game than their opponents.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets OVER 233

This is a very low total for a game involving the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings, who are both dead nuts OVER teams.  The recent head-to-head history really shows that as well.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 253, 250, 239 and 239 points.  The Kings and Rockets have combined for at least 230 points in seven consecutive meetings as well.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Duke/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes will be out for revenge from a 66-68 road loss at Duke on January 21st just two weeks ago.  The Hurricanes shot 34.9% from the field in that game and still only lost by 2, so they have some room for improvement at home this time around.

This is a terrible spot for the Duke Blue Devils.  They are coming off a 63-57 home win over their most hated rivals in the UNC Tar Heels on Saturday.  That makes this a letdown spot for them, especially after having already beaten the Hurricanes once this season.

Miami is a perfect 12-0 SU at home this season, while Duke is 2-4 SU in true road games.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Duke is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Duke.  These last four trends combined for a 23-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Bet Miami Monday.

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -4

The Philadelphia 76ers are fully healthy and playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They are rested and ready to go tonight after having yesterday off and playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  The 76ers should be bigger favorites over the Knicks tonight given the horrible spot for the home team.

Indeed, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 128-134 (OT) home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  Their four best players all played at least 38 minutes with Barrett 43, Randle 40, Brunson 38 and Grimes 38 in that defeat.  They have played six consecutive games decided by single-digits, and after this rough stretch they won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight.

Home-court advantage has not mattered in this series for the Knicks.  The 76ers are actually 10-1 SU in their last 11 trips to Madison Square Garden.  Philadelphia is 15-4 ATS when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  New York is 11-26 ATS in its last 27 home games following a home game.  The Knicks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Temple +11.5

The Houston Cougars are 21-2 this season and the No. 3 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are hard to live up to from the betting public, and thus they are consistently too big of favorites.  That's the case tonight as 11.5-point road favorites at Temple.

Houston just lost outright as a 19-point home favorite to Temple, needed a late comeback to beat Cincinnati by 6 as a 14-point favorite, only beat South Florida by 6 as a 23-point favorite, only beat UCF by 6 as a 15-point favorite and fortunately pulled away late to win by 9 at Wichita State as a 12.5-point favorite.  The Cougars aren't invincible like these recent spreads are indicating.

I think this spread is too high again today for the revenge factor after losing 55-56 at home to Temple in the first meeting.  The Owls only shot 31.1% as a team in that game and still won outright, so there is actually room for improvement at least offensively.  And Temple is the single-most underrated team in the AAC this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have lost just one game all season by more than 12 points.

I like the spot for Temple as they have had an entire week to get rest and prepare to sweep this season series with Houston.  They have been off since January 28th, while Houston just played Wichita State on February 2nd and only has two days to get ready.  It will actually be the 5th game in 15 days for the Cougars, and only the 4th game in 18 days for the Owls.

Temple is 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Owls are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Temple is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games.  Bet Temple Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Pacers OVER 225.5

The Indiana Pacers have gone under the total in three consecutive games coming in, which has the books setting this number too low.  Their last six totals were all 234 or higher, so this is a very low total for a game involving the Pacers.

Indiana's best player in Tyrese Haliburton just returned from injury and has been a little rusty in his first two games back.  But he should be much closer to full strength now and back to running this up-tempo style that Rick Carlisle likes to run.  The Pacers rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and 24th in defensive efficiency.

As long as Mitchell and Garland are on the floor for the Cavaliers they are a potent offensive team.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They will have no problem getting up and down with the Pacers, which has certainly been the case in recent meetings.

Indeed, the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 261, 230, 251 and 233 combined points at the end of regulation those last four meetings, respectively.  Indiana is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following an upset win as a home underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +2

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The Magic should not be underdogs to the lowly Charlotte Hornets, who have lost three consecutive games coming in.  The Hornets lost by 9 at Milwaukee, by 16 at Chicago and by 6 at Detroit.  Now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with lots of travel involved.  They have almost zero home-court advantage as they are just 7-16 SU & 8-15 ATS at home this season.

Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games following three or more consecutive losses.  Orlando is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State ML -115

San Jose State head coach Tim Miles is one of the best in the country at turning around down programs.  He did it at Nebraska, and now he's doing it at SJSU guiding the Spartans to a 13-9 SU & 14-7 ATS record this season.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Now the Spartans take on one of the most overrated teams in the country in the Wyoming Cowboys, who are 7-14 SU & 7-12-1 ATS this season and playing out a down season.  They haven't had Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG last season) all year and remain without him.  They clearly just aren't very good without their best player.

Wyoming is 1-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  San Jose State is 8-2 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season with recent wins over Air Force by 30, Fresno State by 10 and an upset win over UNLV.  The Spartans have a big rest and preparation advantage with their last game on January 28th, while Wyoming last played on January 31st.

San Jose State is 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less this season.  The Spartans are 7-1 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  San Jose State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss overall.  Bet San Jose State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +10.5

The Washington Huskies have been underrated for weeks now in going 4-5 SU but 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have done their best work on the road, losing by 3 as 19-point dogs at Arizona, by 8 as 9-point dogs at ASU, upsetting Colorado outright as 9-point dogs and only losing by 9 at UCLA as 17.5-point dogs.

Clearly, the Huskies can hang with the top teams in the Pac-12 on the road.  Now they catch the USC Trojans in a massive letdown spot following three consecutive wins over ASU, UCLA and Washington State.  They actually trailed 63-65 late against the Cougars on Thursday, but closed on a 17-5 run for a misleading 10-point win.  I think this number has been inflated a couple points too much as a result.

Washington is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a conference loss, including 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a conference road loss.  USC is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  The Huskies are 24-6 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +5

Both the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But the spot is much worse for the Suns than it is for the Pistons, so getting 5 points with the Pistons at home tonight is simply too much.

The short-handed Suns are coming off a shocking 106-94 win at Boston last night.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here plus having to travel from Boston to Detroit.  It will be the 9th game in 15 days for the Suns, who are without Booker, Payne and Shamet and could be without Cameron Johnson due to injury management.

The Pistons are much healthier and much fresher following their 118-112 home win over the Hornets last night.  They get to stay at home here, had three days off prior to that game, and they will now be playing just their 7th game in 20 days.  This team really couldn't be more fresh than they are right now, and it has shown in their recent play in going 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Nets and Hornets, plus close losses to Dallas by 6 and Houston by 3.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - a hot team winning six or seven of their last eight games, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on zero rest.  Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on zero rest.  The Pistons are 28-10 ATS in the last 38 meetings, including 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Detroit.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso +9

Valparaiso has quietly gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The four wins all came by 7 points or more and by a combined 49 points.  The two losses came by 11 at Northern Iowa and in OT at Missouri State.  They won both of their home games during this stretch.

Now the Beacons have their sights set on revenge from a 63-68 loss at Drake in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching way too many points at home in the rematch.  Asking Drake to win this game by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

Drake is coming off a double-OT 88-81 home win over Northern Iowa.  That makes this a letdown spot and a flat spot after using so much energy to win that game on Wednesday.  The Bulldogs remain one of the most overrated teams in the country over the past two seasons.  

Drake is just 20-35 ATS in all games over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS following a home win this season.  Drake is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Drake hasn't won any of its last eight meetings with Valparaiso by more than 7 points with the Beacons going 7-0-1 ATS in those eight games.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +12

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 10-14 record.  But they rank 59th in Kenpom and are the 4th-most unlucky team in the country according to his rankings.  It's easy to see why as they have eight losses by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.

Washington State actually had a 2-point lead 65-63 over USC on Thursday, but managed to give up a 17-5 run to close in what was a brutal beat for us Cougars +7.5 backers.  The Cougars would be 23-1 ATS as +12 underdogs in their 24 games this season.  This number is way too high today.

That's especially the case when you consider they only lost 66-67 at home in their first meeting with UCLA.  They will be out for revenge for that 1-point defeat.  They take on a Bruins team that has come back down to reality of late going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 6 at Arizona, by 13 at USC and only beating Washington by 9 as 17.5-point favorites.

The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Five of the last seven meetings were decided by 10 points or less in this series.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +100

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They have lost 10 consecutive games coming into this one with all 10 against playoff contenders.  Now they find themselves as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Lakers, and we'll take advantage.

It's safe to say the Pelicans will be highly motivated to put an end to this 10-game skid.  I like their chances tonight against a banged up Lakers team that could be without LeBron James.  It is also a tired Lakers team playing their 5th consecutive road game that has included a pair of OT games against the Celtics and Knicks.  I think they run out of gas here tonight.

The Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with the Lakers.  New Orleans is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles with its lone loss coming on the road in OT.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +3.5

The Washington Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to the fact that they are as healthy as they have been all year.  They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright victories as underdogs.

Unfortunately, their six-game winning streak came to an end last night with a fluky 116-124 home loss to the Blazers last night in which they blew an 18-point halftime lead.  Now they come back highly motivated for a victory.  The only reason they are underdogs here is due to playing the second of a back-to-back, but they will still be fresh considering they had three days off prior to playing Portland.  Not all back-to-backs are created equal.

I'll gladly fade the Brooklyn Nets as home favorites here.  They remain without Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons and T.J. Warren are both questionable, and now Kyrie Irving is requesting to be traded.  This franchise is just filled with turmoil, especially right now.  They can't be trusted as home favorites given their current state and the way they have played at home of late.

Indeed, the Nets are 14-39 ATS in their last 53 games as home favorites.  The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Washington is 41-17-2 ATS in its last 60 games when playing on zero rest.  Brooklyn is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 home games overall.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

20* Purdue/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana PK

The Indiana Hoosiers were rolling going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five games before losing on the road at Maryland last time out.  That was clearly a lookahead spot and they were flat, looking ahead to this showdown against No. 1 Purdue.

Now this will be one of the best atmospheres all season in college basketball.  The Hoosiers will have a huge home-court advantage, and there's a reason this line is a PK against the No. 1 team.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Boilermakers off nine consecutive wins including a pair of blowout home wins over Michigan State and Penn State in their last two games coming in.

Things haven't been so easy for Purdue on the road this season.  They have been fortunate to beat Nebraska by 3, Ohio State by 2, Michigan State by 1 and Michigan by 5.  Their other two road victories came against lowly Florida State and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test of the entire season to this point.

Purdue is 0-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Boilermakers are 2-9 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season.  Purdue is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  The Hoosiers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Miami/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson ML -120

It's time to 'buy low' on the Clemson Tigers.  They were missing a few key players in recent games and underperformed because of it.  That includes their upset road loss at Boston College last time out.

Now the Tigers are fully healthy and back home today where they are a perfect 12-0 SU this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They host at Miami team that has been trading wins and losses in their last nine games.

Indeed, the Hurricanes are 0-4 SU in their last four games following a win.  They have not played well on the road recently going 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming at lowly Florida State.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS int heir last nine home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Clemson is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Clemson on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season.  They are playing well coming in going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only two losses both coming on the road at Ohio State and at Michigan State.

The Hawkeyes have really been impressive in Big Ten home games beating Northwestern by 16, Rutgers by 11, Maryland by 14, Michigan by 9 and Indiana by 2 in their last five.  Now they host an Illinois team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.

Illinois is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall against a pretty soft schedule overall and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  They have played Nebraska twice, Wisconsin twice, and Minnesota during this stretch.  Against their three toughest opponents they were all three at home with wins over Michigan State and Ohio State and a 15-point loss to Indiana.

Iowa is 9-0 ATS at home with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus game.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games.  Iowa is 45-20-3 ATS in its last 68 home games.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* Virginia/VA Tech ACC No-Brainer on Virginia Tech PK

Virginia Tech is one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season with several close losses.  They have gotten much healthier recently and could go on a run similar to last season where they finished strong and won the ACC Tournament to make the big dance.  This team is fully capable of doing the same thing.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Virginia Cavaliers, who have won seven consecutive games coming in and has been one of the luckiest teams in the country in close games.  In fact, six of their last seven wins came by 10 points or fewer during this run.  Their luck runs out today.

Virginia Tech beat Virginia 62-53 and 65-51 in its last two home meetings with the Cavaliers.  The favorites is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and the Hokies will close the favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa State ML +115

Iowa State is going to be highly motivated for a victory today following consecutive road losses at Missouri and at Texas Tech.  They blew a 23-point lead to the Red Raiders and want to get that nasty taste out of their mouth.  They also want revenge on Kansas after losing 60-62 on the road to the Jayhawks in their first meeting this season on January 14th.

Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-0 SU at Hilton Coliseum this season and this will be one of the best atmospheres in any venue this season.  Kansas is primed for a letdown after beating Kentucky on the road and getting revenge on K-State at home last time out.

Iowa State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games following a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz ML -115

The Utah Jazz have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 18-9 SU at home this season and just have to win tonight to cover the money line for us.  They take on an Atlanta Hawks team that is 13-15 SU & 12-16 ATS on the road this season and has been a terrible road team through the years.

Utah comes in fully healthy, rested and ready to go tonight.  The Jazz will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Hawks will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after losing at Portland and beating short-handed Phoenix.  

This will be their toughest test of this road trip thus far, and they have Denver on deck tomorrow, so don't be surprised if they limit starters minutes tonight to prepare for that 2nd of a back-to-back.  Utah has two more days off after this, so they will be 'all in' for this one.

Atlanta is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Hawks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Jazz are 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with all six wins by 5 points or more.  Bet the Jazz on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a sandwich spot here.  They are coming off a huge 119-114 (OT) win over the defending champion Warriors, and now they have the Western Conference-leading Denver Nuggets on deck.  They are in a letdown and lookahead spot here, and I don't think they put their best foot forward because of it.  That's going to make it tough for them to cover this 5.5-point spread against the pesky Magic tonight.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS following two consecutive road games this season.  The Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Magic are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -1

The Detroit Pistons have a massive rest advantage over the Charlotte Hornets tonight that should lead them to victory in this battle between Eastern Conference bottom feeders.  Detroit was last seen losing 105-111 at Dallas as 8.5-point dogs on Monday, so they have had the last three days off.

Meanwhile, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days after losses at Milwaukee on Tuesday and at Chicago on Thursday.  Washington played over 38 minutes last night against the Bulls, Ball 35, Rozier 36 and Plumlee 31.  The Hornets won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

Detroit is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  The Hornets are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Charlotte is 6-14 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +7.5

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 10-13 record.  But they rank 58th in Kenpom and are the 4th-most unlucky team in the country according to his rankings.  It's easy to see why as they have eight losses by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.

One of their wins came 81-71 at home as 1-point favorites against USC in their first meeting this season.  Now the Cougars are catching 7.5-points in the rematch, which is too much.  That's especially the case with this being a huge letdown spot for USC off the upset win over UCLA last time out, a game I backed the Trojans in.  But I'll gladly fade them here in this spot.

USC is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Trojans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a home win by 10 points or more.  USC is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Washington State Thursday.

15* Clippers/Bucks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 231

This is a very high total for a game involving the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 22nd in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency.  They play even slower when Kawhi Leonard has been in the lineup and are an even better defensive team with him in there.  He has only played in 28 of their 54 games this season.

This total has been inflated largely due to the Bucks playing in three straight high scoring games against the Hornets, Pacers and Pelicans, which are three dead nuts over teams.  They take a big step up in class here at least offensively, where the Clippers match up with them very well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 230 or higher (Milwaukee) - after having won four or five of their last six games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 70-33 (68%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +18

The UCLA Bruins have come back down to reality with back-to-back losses at Arizona by 6 and at USC by 13.  This line is adjusted too much in their favor tonight for the bounce-back factor.  They may win, but beating Washington by 19-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

Washington is 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall and has played some of its best basketball on the road during this stretch.  The Huskies only lost by 3 as 19-point dogs at Arizona, lost by 8 as 9-point dogs at Arizona State and upset Colorado outright as 9-point dogs.

Now the Huskies have their sights set on revenge from a 49-74 home loss to UCLA as 11-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  But Washington shot just 34.5% from the field including 2-of-25 (8%) from 3-point range in that game, and that's not going to happen again.

Washington is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games following two consecutive home games.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following an ATS loss.  Washington is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Bet Washington Thursday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wichita State +12.5

The Houston Cougars are 20-2 this season and the No. 3 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are hard to live up to from the betting public, and thus they are consistently too big of favorites.  That's the case tonight as 12.5-point road favorites at Wichita State.

Houston just lost outright as a 19-point home favorite to Temple, needed a late comeback to beat Cincinnati by 6 as a 14-point favorite, only beat South Florida by 6 as a 23-point favorite and only beat UCF by 6 as a 15-point favorite.  The Cougars aren't invincible like these recent spreads are indicating.

Few teams have played Houston as tough as Wichita State in the American Athletic in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Shockers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Cougars.  They only lost by 2 in OT as 6.5-point home dogs, only lost by 10 as 11-point road dogs, upset them by 5 as 7-point home dogs and only lost by 7 as 11-point road dogs in those four meetings.  I think this one is decided by single-digits as well.

Wichita State is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games as a double-digit underdog.  The Shockers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet Wichita State Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans following nine consecutive losses.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight, and they are much better than they have shown while battling through injuries lately.  They are now fully healthy with the exception of Zion Williamson and I expect them to upset the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks have been the single-most overvalued team in the NBA. They are 27-25 SU but just 17-33-2 ATS this season.  Luka Doncic has to carry too much of the load for this team, and now he's without second-leading scorer Christian Wood (18.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG).  The Mavericks are 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Dallas is 2-12 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS following a home win this season.  The Mavericks are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days' rest.  Dallas is 5-20-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida State +10.5

The Florida State Seminoles were a disaster in non-conference play this season.  They have been undervalued since.  The Seminoles have gone 5-6 SU but 8-3 ATS in conference play this season.  They have actually done their best work on the road of late, winning outright 84-71 as 4.5-point dogs at Notre Dame and 71-64 as 7.5-point dogs at Pitt in their last two road games.

The Seminoles should not be double-digit underdogs to the NC State Wolfpack tonight.  This feels like a letdown spot for the Wolfpack, who are coming off two straight narrow wins over Notre Dame by 3 as 9.5-point home favorites and Wake Forest by 2 as 3-point road dogs.  They also only beat Miami by 2 in their previous home game.  They remain without Jack Clark (9.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and Dusan Mahorcic (8.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG).

The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The Wolfpack are 17-35-3 ATS in their last 55 home games.  NC State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet Florida State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 146

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Marquette beat Villanova 68-66 for just 134 combined points in their first meeting this season.  I expect another low scoring game that stays UNDER 146 combined points in the rematch as well.

Marquette could be without leading scorer Kam Jones (16.0 PPG), who is questionable after leaving the DePaul game early with a hip injury last time out.  Villanova is without G Jordan Longino (6.7 PPG).  These two injuries will also help us cash in this UNDER ticket.  

Villanova ranks 337th in adjusted tempo this season and always forces opponents to play in the half court.  Marquette will be forced to do the same, especially if they don't have Jones tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -5

This is a rare opportunity to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies after going through their worst stretch of the season.  They finally ended a five-game losing streak with a 112-100 home win over the Pacers last time out.  All five losses came on the road, but the Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA at home.

Indeed, the Grizzlies are 21-3 SU & 16-8 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying against the Portland Trail Blazers, who are coming off a five-game home stand but are just 10-15 SU & 12-13 ATS on the road.

Memphis is 10-1 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  Portland is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a top teams that win between 60% and 70% of their games.  The Blazers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Grizzlies are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER 230.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the 76ers and Magic.  I love betting UNDERS in these situations.  They combined for 228 points in that first meeting on Monday and I expect an even lower scoring game in the rematch.

The 76ers rank 22nd in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency, making them a dead nuts UNDER team.  They will come back with an inspired effort defensively tonight after getting upset by the Magic in that first meeting.

13 of the last 16 meetings in this series have seen 230 or fewer combined points, making for a 13-3 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Plays on the UNDER where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game after allowing 115 points or more in two consecutive games are 74-34 (68.5%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +10.5

Purdue is the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are going to be difficult for them to live up to.  Now they are double-digit favorites against Penn State tonight, and this number is a few notches too high.

I believe this is a letdown spot for the Boilermakers.  They already beat Penn State 76-63 on a neutral on January 8th.  They are coming off a big home win against Michigan State and have a big road game on deck at Indiana.  That makes this a sandwich spot, and I don't think we get their best effort as a result.

Penn State obviously wants revenge from that earlier defeat.  The Nittany Lions have been playing well going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games since that loss to Purdue.  All three wins came by double-digits, and one of the losses came by just 3 points at Wisconsin.

Purdue is 0-6 ATS following eight or more consecutive wins this season.  The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season.  Purdue is 0-7 ATS following a home win by 10 points or more this season.  Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when revenging a same-season loss.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Nittany Lions.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They have lost seven consecutive games coming in.  They will want revenge from a 98-99 home loss to the Nuggets on January 24th just a week ago.  I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans tonight catching 7 points in the rematch.

It's not like the Nuggets are playing much better.  They are 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone victory coming by a single point.  That includes an upset home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They have only won one of their last five home games by double-digits.

The Pelicans are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Denver.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on West Virginia/TCU UNDER 144

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  West Virginia just beat TCU 74-65 for 139 combined points less than two weeks ago on January 18th.  Both teams shot well in that game, too as the Mountaineers shot 46.3% while the Horned Frogs shot 52.4%.  The teams combined for 39 made free throws on 52 attempts as well.

Mike Miles Jr. scored 21 points in that first meeting for TCU.  Well, the Horned Frogs won't have their best player in Miles Jr. (18.1 PPG) for the rematch after suffering a knee injury against Mississippi State over the weekend.  He runs the show for them and is tremendous in transition.  The Horned Frogs won't be looking to push the tempo nearly as much without him.

West Virginia and TCU have combined for 144 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 144-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Kentucky -7.5

The Kentucky Wildcats are playing up to their potential finally in going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss to Kansas, which came up with clutch 3 after clutch 3 over the weekend to escape with a victory.  They won by 16 at Vanderbilt, upset Tennessee by 7 as double-digit road dogs, beat Georgia by 14 and Texas A&M by 9 at home.

Now the Wildcats actually take a step down in class here against Ole Miss and this one has blowout written all over it with the way the Rebels are going right now.  Indeed, Ole Miss is 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall with its lone win come against South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC.  They lost by 22 at Oklahoma State, by 12 at home to Missouri, by 12 at Arkansas, were upset at home by Georgia, lost by 9 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Mississippi State, by 22 at Alabama nd were upset as 22.5-point home favorites to North Alabama during this stretch.

Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing 80 points or more.  Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS vs. a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Bet Kentucky Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -7.5

The Boise State Broncos have been destroying teams of late.  They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 points at New Mexico as 2.5-point underdogs.  They beat Utah State by 23 at home, UNLV by 18 on the road, Wyoming by 17 on the road, Nevada by 15 at home, Fresno by 10 at home and Colorado State by 21 at home.

Each of Boise State's last six wins have come by double-digits against some very good competition, and now they actually take a step down in class here against Air Force.  The Falcons are 3-6 in their last nine games overall with five losses by 8 points or more.  I don't see them offering much resistance here against the Broncos, either.

Boise State won 85-59 at Air Force last season.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  Boise State is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  The Broncos are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boise State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UNLV/Colorado State UNDER 143.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Colorado State beat UNLV 82-81 (OT) on January 14th just over two weeks ago.  That game was tied 70-70 at the end of regulation for 140 combined points.  I think the rematch stays UNDER 143.5 combined points as long as we don't get OT again.

I don't expect the Rams to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting, either.  They shot 50.8% as a team and 43.7% from 3-point range with 14 made 3-pointers.  They rank just 219th in the country in adjusted tempo and will slow it down playing at home tonight.

UNLV is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games when playing a losing team that wins 40% to 49% of their games.  This number has simply been inflated due to that first meeting going to OT.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +15.5

Vanderbilt has been a tremendous bet as a road underdog.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs this season with two outright upsets and not a single loss by more than 9 points.  They lost by 3 at Missouri as 8.5-point dogs, by 9 at Tennessee as 16.5-point dogs and by 6 at Texas A&M as 9.5-point dogs.  They can stay within 15.5 points of Alabama tonight.

The Crimson Tide beat the Commodores 78-66 at Vanderbilt as 9-point favorites in their first meeting this season on January 17th.  I always like backing the road underdog in the rematch after losing the first meeting.  Vanderbilt shot 30.1% as a team and 6-of-33 (18.2%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and still only lost by 12.  I'd have to expect them to improve their shooting in the rematch.

The Commodores are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  Vanderbilt is 21-5-1 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Alabama is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 home games.  The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The underdog is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Vanderbilt is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games revenging a loss where opponents scored 75 points or more.  The Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Alabama is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 90 points or more.  These four trends combined for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Commodores.  Bet Vanderbilt Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Dallas Mavericks have been getting respect all season that has been unwarranted.  They are 26-25 SU but just 17-32-2 ATS this season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are without second-leading scorer Christian Wood right now, plus Luka Doncic is questionable with an ankle injury.  I like the Pistons at this number whether or not Doncic plays.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have gone 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They pulled off the 130-122 upset win at Brooklyn as identical 8.5-point dogs in their last road game.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 11 days tonight.  Detroit pulled the 131-125 upset as 8-point home dogs to the Mavericks in their first meeting this season.

Detroit is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 points or more.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings PK

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 110-117 road loss at Minnesota on Saturday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here two days later and are the fresher team by far.

While the Kings will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days, the Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 18 days.  This is a clear letdown spot for the Timberwolves after just beating the Kings, plus it's a lookahead spot with the defending champion Warriors on deck Wednesday.  I expect the Kings to give an A-plus effort and the Timberwolves to be flat tonight.

Plays on road teams (Sacramento) - revenging a loss, while also off two or more consecutive upset losses as favorites are 42-21 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most undervalued team in the NBA for two seasons running now.  That has especially been the case of late as the Thunder are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  They are showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home to the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road this season going 6-18 SU & 8-16 ATS away from home.  They play zero defense on the highway, allowing 122.9 points per game on 49% shooting.  The Thunder are 15-10 SU & 16-9 ATS at home this season and scoring 119.4 points per game on 48% shooting.

The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in road games following a win this season.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that average 116 or more points per game.  The Thunder are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Patrick Mahomes is hobbled and not himself.  Travic Kelce is nursing a back injury and questionable.  And the Cincinnati Bengals are missing three starters along the offensive line.  All these offensive injuries to both teams have me liking the UNDER in the AFC Championship Game.  Plus, temps will be around 20 at kickoff and only getting colder as the night progresses with double-digit MPH winds as well.

Cincinnati has played four consecutive defensive battles and has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  Their last four games have seen 40, 43, 41 and 37 combined points.  They have allowed 24 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 18 or fewer in six of those.  They rode their defense to the Super Bowl last season and are doing it again this season.

Maybe the bigger surprise is just how well Kansas City has played defensively down the stretch.  They have allowed just 16.8 points per game in their last four games and 297.4 yards per game in their last five games.  They haven't allowed 350 or more yards in any of their last six games.  They will have a good game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense in this rematch from a 24-27 road loss.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 4th meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the past two seasons.  They know each other inside and out, and that favors the defenses more than the offenses.  That's especially the case here since both defenses are very healthy while both offenses are banged up.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Bengals last 10 playoff games.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Bengals last 17 games vs. AFC opponents.  The UNDER is 43-19-2 in Bengals last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven home games.  Cincinnati is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  Kansa City is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -8.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost a season-high five consecutive games, but all five losses came on the road.  Now they are back home where they are 20-3 SU & 15-8 ATS this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.

The Grizzlies get a step down in class here against the Indiana Pacers, who have really been struggling without their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (20.2 PPG, 10.2 APG), who is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  The Pacers are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and this run has coincided with the loss of Haliburton.  Five of their last seven losses have been by double-digits so they have rarely been competitive.

Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing four or five of its last six games.  The Grizzlies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. Central Division opponents.  The Grizzlies beat the Pacers 130-112 as 7.5-point road favorites on January 14th, and now are only 8.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 18, 30 and 33 points.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

I've been waiting for a +3 on the 49ers all week and it has finally started to pop up at multiple books this morning.  Grab a +3 if available or buy it to +3 (-120) or better.  The 49ers are showing tremendous value catching a full field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

The 49ers are the better team in my opinion.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have scored at least 31 points in eight of those 12 games, and they have allowed an average of just 14.9 points per game during this winning streak.  They have the best defense in the NFL and an underrated offense with Brock Purdy, who has a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio in leading the 49ers to each of their last eight victories.

The Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  That schedule has been very easy down the stretch as they have faced the Giants three times, the Saints, Cowboys, Bears, and Titans in their last seven games.  This is a big step up in class for them and easily the toughest opponent they have faced all season.

One key matchup that favors the 49ers is the ground game.  The Eagles have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and have allowed 106 or more rushing yards in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They allowed 99 and 87 yards in the other two instances.  The 49ers rely heavily on running the football as they have rushed for at least 153 yards in six of their last seven games overall.  They will be able to get what they want on the ground, which is going to continue to take a lot of pressure off Purdy.

The Eagles need to be able to run the ball to be successful on offense.  In their last three losses, they managed just 67 rushing yards against the Saints, 87 against the Cowboys and 94 against the Commanders.  Well, now they are up against a 49ers defense that ranks 2nd allowing just 79.0 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 3.4 yards per carry.  The 49ers will shut down their running game and make Jalen Hurts try and beat them through the air.  He is the worse passer of these two quarterbacks.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of San Francisco.  I give the edge to Shanahan over Nick Sirianni and it's not even close when you compare playoff experience between the two.  I trust Shanahan to make some key decisions here that will help put the 49ers in position to win, and Sirianni to make some mistakes for the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

FREE 6-Point Teaser: 49ers +8.5/Bengals +7.5

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +8

The Michigan State Spartans want revenge from a 63-64 home loss to Purdue on January 16th less than two weeks ago.  I think they can stay within 8 points on the road in the rematch and possibly pull off the upset, especially since they have a healthy Malik Hall for the rematch after not having him available in the first meeting.

Purdue has been one of the luckiest teams in the country winning most of their close games.  They have three wins by 5 points or less in their last four games with the exception being a blowout win over lowly Minnesota.  They only won by 1 at Michigan State, by 3 at home against Maryland and by 5 at Michigan.  They lost outright at home to Rutgers for their lone defeat this season.

Purdue is 0-7 ATS following six or more consecutive wins this season.  The Boilermakers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Purdue is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Boilermakers today.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* Lakers/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +8

The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from a 118-122 (OT) home loss to the Boston Celtics in which they blew a double-digit lead in the final minutes on December 13th in their first meeting this season.  They have Anthony Davis back healthy now and both James and Walker IV are questionable for this one.

The Celtics will be without their glue guy in Marcus Smart, who is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  That has shown as the Celtics are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games without him losing by 15 at Orlando as 7.5-point favorites, losing by 3 at Miami as 2.5-point dogs and lost by 3 at home to New York as 8.5-point favorites.

The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins during this stretch coming by 3 and 2 points.  They aren't blowing anyone out.  The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with only one loss by more than 5 points in their last eight games.  Los Angeles is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall dating back further, including 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 237.5

Recent overtime games by the Celtics have inflated this total.  They are much more of a defensive-minded team since Robert Williams came back, and they are lacking on offense of late as teams have figured them out, plus they played bigger instead of small ball with Williams.

The UNDER would be 5-0 in Celtics last five games overall if not for OT.  They have combined for 220, 193, 211, 210 and 212 points at the end of regulation in their last five games overall.  This total has been inflated way up to 237.5 points, and there's clear value with the UNDER.

Speaking of OT games, Boston beat Los Angeles 122-118 in OT in their first meeting this season.  But that game was tied 110-110 at the end of regulation for just 220 combined points.  And I think this game should be much closer to 220 than 240 tonight given the rivalry and how both teams have been playing of late.

Boston is 14-5 UNDER with a total of 230 or higher this season.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Lakers last five games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +10.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores don't get blown out often and will give the Texas A&M Aggies a run for their money tonight.  They have just one loss by more than 12 points all season and that came against Kentucky.  They only lost by 3 at Missouri, by 9 at Tennessee, by 5 at VCU, upset Temple and upset Georgia in their five true road games this season.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Texas A&M Aggies.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a brutal three-game stretch beating Florida by 2 at home, losing by 9 at Kentucky and upsetting Auburn on the road.  That makes this a natural letdown spot for the Aggies after handing Auburn its first home loss in ages.

Vanderbilt is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home loss.  The Commodores are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games following a loss.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games following three consecutive games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Commodores are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games, including 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 16 days, which is about as tough of a situation as you will see in the NBA.  

Don't be surprised if they rest some starters after four starters played at least 30 minutes last night including 37 from Russell and 36 from Edwards.  It's also a letdown spot for the Timberwolves off an upset win over the Grizzlies, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year, so they definitely wanted some revenge last night and got it.

The Kings come in on two days' rest and will test Minnesota's tired legs by playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.  They will also be highly motivated for a win off an upset loss to the Raptors last time out.  The Kings have been a great road team this season at 11-9 SU & 13-7 ATS.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -4

It's safe to say the New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six consecutive games coming into this one.  But they just got Brandon Ingram back from injury last game, and they are at full strength with the exception of Zion Williamson.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Pelicans, who also come in on two days' rest.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Washington Wizards, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  PF Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Wizards while PG Monte Morris is questionable.  The Pelicans beat the Wizards 132-112 on the road in their first meeting this season on January 9th.

The Wizards are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games when playing on two days' rest.  Washington is 6-15-2 ATS in its last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  New Orleans is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Wizards.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* Kansas/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas +3

The Kansas Jayhawks have never lost more than three games in a row under Bill Self.  Well, they come in on a three-game losing streak with losses to Kansas State, TCU and Baylor.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory today.

We'll 'buy low' on the Jayhawks, who also want revenge from a home loss to Kentucky last season.  We'll 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, while Kansas has failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games.

Kentucky is 0-6 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Wildcats are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Clippers PK

The Los Angeles Clippers are a dangerous team when both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are healthy.  That has been the case in recent games and it has shown.  The Clippers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins by 5, 14, 18 and 38 points.

Now they make it five in a row as a PK on the road at the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks had lost to the Hornets by 4 at home and the Bulls by 11 on the road before getting a 5-point win at OKC.  They take a huge step up in class here after playing a very easy schedule of late.

Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Hawks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah State/Fresno State UNDER 134.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the second meeting between Utah State and Fresno State this season.  The Aggies won 67-54 for just 121 combined points in their first meeting on December 31st that was played at a snail's pace.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

Fresno State ranks 333rd in adjusted tempo, 255th in adjusted offense and 80th in adjusted defense.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  This had been a very low-scoring series as it is with the UNDER 5-0 in the last five meetings.  It would be 6-0 in the last six if not for OT.

Indeed, Utah State and Fresno State have combined for 121, 115, 108, 122, 130 and 122 points at the end of regulation in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 119.7 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than tonight's posted total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +4.5

Fresno State has been great at home this season in conference play.  The Bulldogs upset Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV at home with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  Now I expect them to upset Utah State, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Utah State has lost its last three conference road games by double-digits.  The Aggies lost by 23 as 2-point dogs at Boise, by 15 as 2-point dogs at Nevada and by 10 as 7-point dogs at San Diego State.  They also lost at Fresno State last season.

Utah State is 14-40 ATS in its last 54 road games following a road loss.  The Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following four consecutive games where they forced 14 or fewer turnovers.  Utah State is 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with its two wins both coming at home by 4 over UNLV and by 1 over San Jose State.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

15* Texas/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Texas +6.5

This line should be much closer to PK.  Both Tennessee and Texas enter 17-3 this season but the difference is Texas played in the best conference in the country in the Big 12, while Tennessee plays in the SEC.  The Longhorns have played the tougher schedule and are more ready for this game.

The Longhorns have shown they can still be great without Chris Beard as they have won five of their last six games overall with their lone loss coming at Iowa State.  Kentucky won at Tennessee outright as a big underdog a few weeks ago, so it can be done.

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in defensive efficiency, and while no denying they are a great defensive team, they have been fortunate with opposing teams missing open shots.  Opponents are only hitting 21.6% on 3-pointers against them and 25% of open 3's, which is just pure luck.  Texas scores 80.5 points per game this season and will test the Vols' D more than anyone has up to this point.  The Longhorns rank 12th in adjusted offense and 27th in adjusted defense.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +9.5

The Arizona Wildcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and not blowing anyone out of late.  They are in a tough spot here following three consecutive wins over USC at home, UCLA at home and Washington State on the road.  Asking them to beat the Huskies by double-digits is asking too much.

Washington has been grossly undervalued of late.  The Huskies are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with only one loss by double-digits during this stretch.  They only lost by 3 at Arizona, by 8 at Arizona State, they upset Colorado on the road and upset Arizona State at home.  Now they want revenge from that 3-point road loss at Arizona on January 5th, which proved they could hang with the Wildcats.

Washington is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following three consecutive games as an underdog.  The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that make eight or more 3-pointers per game.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Washington Saturday.