20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100)

The Boston Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They have won six straight games all by three runs or more.  They have outscored the opposition 47-15 in the process, averaging 7.8 runs per game in the process.

The Seattle Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight games overall.  Remarkably, they have been held to one or fewer runs in all seven losses and are averaging just 1.1 runs per game in the process.

Rick Porcello is 6-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in 11 career starts against Seattle.  Christian Bergman is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.715 WHIP in three starts this season for the Mariners.  He allowed 10 runs, 4 homers and 16 base runners in 4 innings in his last start at Washington.

The Red Sox are 14-2 in Porcello's 16 starts when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last three seasons.  They are winning by an average of 4.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-110)

I fully expect the Washington Nationals to win by multiple runs today against the lowly San Diego Padres.  Two of their best hitters in Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy rested yesterday, and the National still won 5-1.  Now both Murphy and Zimmerman are expected back in the lineup Saturday.

Stephen Strasburg is back to being his dominant self this season, going 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in nine starts.  Strasburg is 5-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego.  In fact, they are 5-0 in his last five starts against them winning all five games by four runs or more.

Strasburg is 20-3 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Nationals are winning these starts by 2.5 runs per game on average.  San Diego is 15-51 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+120)

The Boston Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season right now, especially at the plate.  They have won four straight coming in while scoring a combined 38 runs in the process, or an average of 9.5 runs per game.  The Mariners have lost five of six coming in.

The bats should stay red hot against Yovani Gallardo, who is 2-4 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Gallardo has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in six career starts against Boston.

Eduardo Rodriquez has pitched like an ace thus far this season.  He has gone 3-1 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in eight start, and 0-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two home starts.  Rodriquez gave up just one run and five base runners in 6 1/3 innings in his only career start against Seattle, which came last season.

Bets against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (AL), with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 or worse over his last three starts are 55-13 (80.3%) over the last five seasons.  These teams are losing by 1.9 runs per game on average.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Friday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +10.5

The Boston Celtics have voiced their frustration through the media about how disappointed they were in letting down their home fans in the first two games of this series.  They want to make amends and give a big effort tonight in Game 5 and go out swinging.

And the Celtics have given the Cavs trouble the past two games without Isaiah Thomas.  They have opened up their offense with a lot more passing, and it has worked.  They won Game 3 and actually held a double-digit lead at halftime of Game 4 before the Cavs pulled away in the second half for a 112-99 victory.  They only lost by 13 on the road despite the Cavs shooting 59.5% from the field for the game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Thursday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Diamondbacks/Brewers OVER 8.5

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers.  These are two of the most underrated offenses in baseball.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.1 runs per game overall and 5.4 against right-handed starters.  The Brewers are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall, 5.7 at home and 5.5 against left-handed starters.

Zach Davies has not fared well this season, going 5-2 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in nine starts.  He has been at his worst at home, going 3-2 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.906 WHIP in five starts.

Robbie Ray is 3-3 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.321 WHIP in nine starts, including 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in his last three.  Ray gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his only career start against the Brewers last season.

Milwaukee is 13-2 to the OVER at home with a total set of 8 to 8.5 this season.  The Brewers are 22-8 to the OVER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.  Davies is 13-4 to the OVER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120)

The Boston Red Sox are finally starting to hit the ball up to their potential with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They have scored a combined 23 runs over their past two games and should stay hot at the plate tonight against the Texas Rangers.

Martin Perez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has gone 2-5 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in nine starts, and 0-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in three road starts.  Perez is 2-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in five career starts against Boston.  In his last start against the Red Sox, he gave up 11 runs, 7 earned, in 4 innings of a 6-11 loss.

Chris Sale is one of the elite starters in baseball.  He is 4-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in nine starts this season, striking out 95 batters in 65 2/3 innings.  The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in seven career starts against Texas.  He has pitched 15 shutout innings while striking out 27 and allowing only 7 base runners in his last two starts against the Rangers.

Texas is 1-10 in road games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) this season.  It is losing by an average of 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Rangers are 2-8 in Perez's last 10 road starts.  The Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston +15.5

The oddsmakers made a huge adjustment after the Celtics lost the first two games of this series by double-digits.  They were 17-point dogs in Game 3 and won outright.  Now they're still 15-point dogs in Game 4, and it's still too big of an adjustment.  The Celtics will stay within the number and give the Cavs another run for their money tonight.

The Cavaliers even shot 14-of-22 from 3-point range in the first half and STILL didn't beat the Celtics.  It's unlikely that they shoot as well as they did again in Game 4, which bodes well for the Celtics covering this 15-point spread.

And the Celtics actually moved the ball perhaps better than any game they had all season, which got everyone involved without Isaiah Thomas.  They had six players score at least 10 points, and sharing the basketball will be the focal point heading into Game 4 as well.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS off a home loss this season.  Boston is 10-2 ATS in road games against Central division opponents this season.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Cleveland.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+100)

The Indians lost Game 1 to their in-state rivals in the Cincinnati Reds.  Now I expect them to bounce back in Game 2 with a blowout victory to cover the run line Tuesday.  That was a rare win for the Reds as they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.  And the Reds have allowed at least 6 runs in seven of their last eight games coming in.

Amir Garrett is the next starter in line to get rocked for the Reds.  He is 3-3 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Garrett returned from a brief stint in the minors to give up 6 runs in 4 innings of a 5-9 loss at Chicago on May 18th.

Carlos Carrasco is the best starter that the Indians have to offer.  He is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.884 WHIP In eight starts this season, including 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.675 WHIP in four road starts.  Carrasco is also 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati, and the Indians are 3-0 in those three games, winning all three by 2 runs or more.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Rockies/Phillies OVER 8.5

I cashed in the Rockies/Phillies OVER yesterday and I'm on it again today.  Once again, the wind is expected to be blowing out to left field when the first pitch is thrown at Citizens Bank Park.  And that will help aid the OVER here tonight.

The Rockies are scoring 5.1 runs per game on the season and 5.3 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Phillies have an underrated offense that is hitting .270 and scoring 5.1 runs per game at home.

German Marquez is 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.276 WHIP In five starts this season for the Rockies.  Zach Eflin is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in six starts for the Phillies, including 0-1 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in his last three.  Both starters are in line to get rocked today.

The OVER is 13-3 in Rockies last 16 vs. NL East opponents.  The OVER is 4-0 in Rockies last four games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Phillies last four home games.  The OVER is 19-6-2 in Phillies last 27 vs. NL West foes.  The OVER is 7-0 in Eflin's last seven starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 218

The over is 3-0 in the first three games of this series between the Warriors and Spurs.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their highest total of the series in Game 4.  This total has been set at 218 after totals of 211.5, 209.5 and 215 in the first three games of the series.  There is clearly value on the UNDER in Game 4.

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Antonio.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 208 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings in San Antonio.  They have averaged just 191.3 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 218.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Monday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Rockies/Phillies OVER 8.5

The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field today at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.  I'm shocked that oddsmakers have set the total so low at 8.5 here when you have an elite hitting team like the Rockies and two terrible starting pitchers going.

The Rockies are scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season and 5.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Phillies have swung the bats well at home, hitting .279 and scoring 5.4 runs per game at Citizens Bank Park.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game on the season.

Jerad Eickhoff is 0-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.760 WHIP in his last three starts.  Jeff Hoffman will be making just his second start of the season for the Rockies after allowing three runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings in a 10-7 win over the Dodgers.  Eickhoff is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Colorado.

The OVER is 5-1 in Hoffman's last six starts.  The OVER is 18-6-2 in Phillies last 26 vs. NL West opponents.  The OVER is 15-4-3 in Phillies last 22 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Philly is 7-0 to the OVER after allowing two runs or less this season.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston +17

The oddsmakers have been forced to set a ridiculous number in Game 3 because they know the betting public will want to continue backing the Cavs at any price.  After all, the Cavs are 10-0 in the playoffs and have gone 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the public isn't going to stop backing them.

But this is simply too big of an adjustment.  The Cavaliers aren't 17 points better than the Celtics at home, even with Isaiah Thomas out for the rest of the playoffs.  These players had Thomas' back when he lost his sister, and now they'll rally for him and give a big effort in Game 3.

The Celtics were embarrassed by 44 points in Game 2.  This is a prideful team that won't want to go out like that.  They aren't going to quit, and in fact I think it will be the Cavaliers that relax a bit in Game 3.  They know they don't have to deal with Thomas so they won't be as focused, especially off their 44-point victory.

Boston is 9-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Celtics are 14-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons.  The road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -115

The Boston Red Sox have lost each of their first three games of this series with the Oakland A's.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today with a victory in Game 4 Sunday, and I expect them to get it.

Eduardo Rodriguez has gone 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in seven starts this season with 45 K's in 40 1/3 innings.  Rodriquez pitched eight shutout innings while allowing only three base runners in his only career start against the A's, which came last season.

The Red Sox are 5-1 in Ridriquez's last six starts.  The A's are 14-33 after having won four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons.  Take the Red Sox Sunday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 3 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214

The first two games in this series have gone over the total with ease.  Now the betting public is all over the over in Game 3, but I see it playing out much differently.  With their season basically on the line tonight, the Spurs will fight, and that will come out more on the defensive end than anything.

And the Spurs are going to be without leading scorer Kawhi Leonard again for Game 3.  They only managed 100 points on 37% shooting without him in Game 2.  The Warriors couldn't miss, shooting 56.2% for the game with 18 made 3-pointers. That is unlikely to happen again as well.

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  In fact, the Spurs and Warriors have combined for 208 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings in San Antonio.  They have averaged just 187.2 combined points per game in those nine games, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -121

The Philadelphia Phillies are just 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as short road favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who clearly have the edge on the mound in this one.

Ivan Nova gets overlooked time and time again despite the fact that he just dominates on the regular.  Nova is 3-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three home starts.  Nova is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA and 0.868 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia as well.

Vincent Velasquez has some good stuff, but he clearly hasn't been able to control it this season.  Velasquez is 2-3 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in seven starts this year.  He gave up 4 runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings for a 6.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP in his lone career start against Pittsburgh.

Nova is 42-17 (+20.8 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 in his career.  The Phillies are 8-25 in their last 33 road games.  Philadelphia is 3-13 in Velasquez's last 16 starts.  Pittsburgh is 8-2 in its last 10 home meetings with Philly.  Take the Pirates Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -140

The Arizona Diamondbacks are rolling right now.  They just swept the Mets at home last series and now take on the struggling Padres, who have gone just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall to fall to 15-28 on the season.

The Diamondbacks have a massive edge on the mound tonight with Taijuan Walker, who is 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA in eight starts this season.  Walker is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.500 WHIP in three career starts against San Diego.

Jered Weaver has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  The washed-up veteran is 0-4 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in eight starts, including 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in three home starts.  Weaver is 1-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in three career starts against Arizona as well.

San Diego is 1-11 when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.  The Padres are 0-8 in Weaver's last eight starts overall.  San Diego is 1-7 in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.  Take the Diamondbacks Friday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5

This is the series for the Boston Celtics.  They can't lose both home games to open the series if they want any chance of giving the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money.  I expect a big effort from the Celtics here with their back against the wall after losing Game 1.

The Celtics came out sluggish in Game 1 and fell behind by double-digits right away and could never recover.  I guess you could see that coming after just winning a Game 7 against the Wizards a couple days earlier.  They were probably still fatigued too.

But they weren't aggressive at all, time and time against settling for 3-pointers instead of attacking the basket.  They went 12-of-38 (31.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  Look for Isaiah Thomas and company to be in attack mode from the opening tip.

Boston is 15-3 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Cavs are 4-14 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Friday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -120

The Toronto Blue Jays are highly motivated for a win here Thursday.  They have lost the first three games of this series to the Atlanta Braves and certainly want to avoid a sweep with a Game 4 victory.  And they should do just that with their ace on the mound.

Marcus Stroman is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA in eight starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Julio Teheran, who is 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in four home starts.  Teheran is 0-0 with a 6.80 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto as well.

The Blue Jays get some good news on the injury front today as SS Troy Tulowitzki is expected to be activated and return from the DL.  The Braves have horrible news as their best hitter in Freddie Freeman is doubtful to play tonight with a hand injury.

Teheran is 1-10 (-10.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  Teheran is 1-12 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.  Bet the Blue Jays Thursday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 1 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I think the long layoff for the Cavs is more of a disadvantage than an advantage.  They haven't played since May 7th and will be rusty.  We saw the Warriors get blitzed by the Spurs in the first half of Game 1 after their long layoff.  I think the same thing happens here.

The Boston Celtics are far from tired despite playing a 7-game series.  Rest isn't an issue in the playoffs.  And the Celtics have only played four games in the past 10 days, which would be a great situation to back a team during the regular season.

One thing that really stands out to me and points out the line value in Game 1 is the regular season lines between these teams.  Boston was a 4-point favorite and a 1.5-point favorite in its two home meetings with Cleveland.  Now it is a +5 underdog in Game 1, which is a 9-point difference from their final regular season meeting of 2017 on April 5th.

Cleveland is 3-14 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 32-17 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Wednesday.

15* Red Sox/Cardinals ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston Red Sox -112

Rick Porcello has been every bit as good as his 2016 Cy Young form when you look at advanced metrics this season.  But he's just 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in eight starts.  As a result, Porcello is undervalued right now.

Porcello has struck out 52 batters in 49 1/3 innings this season.  He is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three road starts this year, and 1-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.  Porcello is 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis.

Mike Leake is overvalued right now because he has overachieved.  Leake is 4-2 with a 1.94 ERA in seven starts this season.  That's not going to last, and he has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Leake is 4-13 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 24-9 in their last 33 interleague games.  Boston is 6-0 in Porcello's last six interleague starts.  The Cardinals are 1-7 in Leake's last seven home starts, and 0-6 in his last six home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 3-11 in its last 14 interleague home games.  Take the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are here because of defense.  In fact, these are the two best teams in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Spurs rank 1st at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed, while the Warriors are 2nd at 101.1.

The Warriors got way behind early against the Spurs in Game 1 and were playing at a frantic pace to try to get back in it the rest of the way.  That led to a high-scoring 113-111 final in the Warriors' favor.  I think Game 2 will be played much differently with the Warriors getting off to a much better start.

The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 meetings.  They have averaged just 202.8 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, showing that there's still a ton of value on the UNDER 210 here.  And leading scorer Kawhi Leonard is out now for the Spurs after getting injured in Game 1.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 53-16 (76.8%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-6 (80%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -138

The Toronto Blue Jays have finally turned the corner in winning seven of their last nine games overall.  But they had their five-game winning streak come to an end Monday to the Braves, and they'll be motivated to start a new one tonight.

They should do just that due to their massive edge on the mound tonight.  Marco Estrada is 2-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three home starts.  Estrada is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in five career starts against Atlanta, including 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three starts, pitching 21 2/3 shutout innings in the process.

Jaime Garcia is past his prime.  He has gone 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.415 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.448 WHIP in five road starts.  He'll be no match for Estrada and this surging Blue Jays lineup tonight.

The Braves are 10-25 in their last 35 interleague games.  Atlanta is 0-6 in its last six after allowing 5 runs or more in its previous game.  The Blue Jays are 56-25 in their last 81 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Toronto is 7-1 in its last eight games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Take the Blue Jays Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston -4.5

The Boston Celtics let one get away in Game 6, but credit to John Wall for hitting a clutch 3-pointer right before the buzzer.  And it kept the trend of the home team winning every game in this series this season alive.

In fact, the home team is now 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the 10 meetings between the Wizards and Celtics this season.  The home team has won nine of those 10 meetings by 8 points or more as they have basically all been blowouts outside of Game 6.

The Celtics' home domination of the Wizards has been mighty impressive.  They are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning all eight by 8 points or more.  Boston has outscored Washington by a total of 136 points in those eight games, or by an average of 17.0 points per game.

Boston is 8-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Bet the Celtics in Game 7 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +103

The Houston Astros are in a very tough spot here Monday.  They just played a double-header yesterday against the Yankees and concluded with a 10-7 win on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  Their staff gave up 18 runs in the two games and will be worn out coming into Game 1 of this series with the Miami Marlins.

The Marlins are going to be motivated for a win after losing eight of their last 10 games overall.  Their most consistent starter has been Daniel Straily, who is 1-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in four home starts.

Straily has never lost to the Astros, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in three career starts against them.  Joe Musgrove is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.381 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Astros.

Straily is 14-4 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  Straily is 7-0 (+7.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last two seasons.  Miami is 20-6 in its last 26 home meetings with Houston.  Take the Marlins Monday.

15* Astros/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York -114

The New York Yankees have lost the first two games of this series to the Houston Astros.  They are going to want to sweep the double-header today, and I like the value we are getting with them as small home favorites in Game 2 tonight on ESPN.

Masahiro Tanaka is 5-1 with a 4.36 ERA in seven starts this season, 3-0 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in three home starts, and 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.985 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Rarely will you get to back him at home at this short of a price.

Charlie Morton is 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in seven starts for the Astros.  But while he has been dominant at home, Morton is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in two road starts this year.  Morton has posted a 5.14 ERA in one career start against the Yankees as well.

Tanaka is 21-4 (+16.3 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  Tanaka is 13-1 (+11.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  Tanaka is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last two seasons. Take the Yankees in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 212

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are here because of defense.  In fact, these are the two best teams in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Spurs rank 1st at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed, while the Warriors are 2nd at 101.1.

I think the Spurs could be fatigued here after a hard-fought seres with the Rockets, plus with the fact that they are without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard is very banged up and didn't play in Game 6.  And the Warriors will be rusty having last played on May 8th, both factors that should help contribute to the UNDER cashing.

The UNDER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings in this series.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 200.4 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than Game 1's posted total of 212, providing plenty of value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.  The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after scoring 105 points or more are 45-13 (77.6%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -158

The Arizona Diamondbacks have won three straight while outscoring the opposition 20-6 in the process.  I think they will make easy work of the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates, who have lost six straight coming in while scoring an average of 2.3 runs per game in their last 10 games overall.

Trevor Williams will be making just his 3rd career start tonight for the Pirates.  He was blasted for 8 runs, 6 earned, in 3 innings of a 12-1 loss to the Dodgers in his only start this season on May 8th.  Now he'll be up against an Arizona team that is hitting .301 and scoring 6.3 runs per game at home this season.

Taijuan Walker is 3-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.275 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Diamondbacks are 3-0 in his three home starts where he has posted a 4.58 ERA and 1.017 WHIP as well.

Walker is 11-2 (+9.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 11-29 in their last 40 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Diamondbacks are 23-8 in their last 31 home games.  Pittsburgh is 0-6 in its last six games overall.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* AL West ANNIHILATOR on Texas Rangers -114

The Texas Rangers are showing great value as only -114 home favorites over the Oakland A's in Game 1 of this series Friday night.  We'll take advantage and back them here as they come in on a three-game winning streak while scoring a combined 20 runs in the process.

Andrew Cashner isn't getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers tonight.  The right-hander is 0-3 on the season in spite of a 2.63 ERA over five starts, so he simply has been unfortunate in the run support department.  Cashner has posted a 1.80 ERA in two home starts as well.

Jesse Hahn is having a very good season for the A's as well with a 2.73 ERA in five starts.  Hahn is 1-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in four career starts against Texas, though.

Texas is 17-4 in home games after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span over the last two seasons.  Oakland is 4-19 after having won five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons.  The A's are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  Oakland is 1-6 in Hahn's last seven road starts.  Take the Rangers Friday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I know the home team has absolutely dominated this series this season, going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in nine meetings.  However, I'm going against the grain here as I firmly believe the Boston Celtics close out the Wizards tonight, and we'll take the 5 points for some added insurance.

The Celtics made a big statement in Game 5 with their 123-101 victory.  The Wizards have to be a bit deflated after that defeat, and now all the pressure is on them to try and keep their season alive.  These players haven't been in this situation very often and I question how well they'll handle it.  The Celtics' players will be playing loose and free.

Boston is 15-6 ATS in road games after a game where it covered the spread this season.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Wizards are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Boston is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -120

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing great value as small home favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.  Rarely will you get ace Zach Greinke at this kind of a price when pitching at home, and we'll take advantage.

Greinke has gotten back to being his dominant self this season.  The right-hander is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in four home starts.

The Pirates are really struggling at the plate right now, scoring an average of just 2.4 runs per game in their last eight contests.  They have lost four straight and six of their last eight overall as a result.  They have some key injuries that are holding their lineup back.

The Diamondbacks are 13-6 at home this season, hitting .297 and scoring 6.3 runs per game.  The Pirates are 0-5 in their last five road games.  Pittsburgh is 1-5 in Gerrit Cole's last six road starts.  The Diamondbacks are 12-3 in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Arizona is 21-8 in its last 29 home games.  Greinke is 35-7 (+25.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse in his career.  Take the Diamondbacks Thursday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 6 No-Brainer on Houston -6.5

The Houston Rockets are the better team in this series.  They have outscored the Spurs despite being down 3-2 in this series.  They won their two games by 27 and 21 points.  I think we see a similar blowout tonight with their backs against the wall at home in Game 6.

The Spurs lost Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason a few games back, and now their best player in Kawhi Leonard is nursing knee and ankle injuries.  He got hurt in Game 5 and didn't return for the final five minutes of regulation or overtime.  The Spurs were fortunate to pull it out, but they have no chance of being competitive in Game 6 without him at near 100%.

The Spurs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win.  The Rockets are 19-10 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet the Rockets in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Boston Celtics probably relaxed a bit too much following their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in these playoffs that extended back to Game 3 of the Bulls' series.  They were blown out in their two games at Washington in Games 3 and 4.

But now they return home focused and determined to take back control of this series.  And I think we are getting the Celtics at a cheaper price than we should be here simply because they were blown out in both games in Washington.

Home-court advantage has been bigger in this series than any other in the playoffs.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Celtics are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Wizards, winning all seven by 8 points or more and by an average of 14.3 points per game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the past three seasons.  It is winning by 14.8 points per game in this spot.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -164

The Washington Nationals have lost three straight games by a combined four runs.  They blew a 4-2 lead against the Orioles in the 9th inning last night and lost by one in extras.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory here tonight to end this skid.

Stephen Strasburg is back to being his dominant self when healthy this season.  He has gone 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.082 WHIP over six starts this season.  Strasburg is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.750 WHIP In two career starts against Baltimore as well.

Wade Miley has pitched above his talent level this season, and he's in line to get rocked tonight.  He has a 2.052 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 26 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.  Miley has given up 9 earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Washington.

The Nationals are 10-2 in Strasburg's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Washington is 37-14 in Strasburg's last 51 starts overall.  The Orioles are 0-5 in Miley's last five starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.  Take the Nationals Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (+105)

The Houston Astros are living up to their massive potential this season.  They have gone 21-11 behind a dominant starting rotation, a solid offense that's hitting .275 and scoring 4.8 runs per game, and an elite bullpen with a 3.11 ERA on the season.

Charlie Morton has proven to be a nice addition to the rotation this season.  He has gone 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA in six starts this year, including 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in four home starts.  Morton is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves have gone 1-6 in their last seven games overall.  Bartolo Colon is finally starting to wear down in his old age this season.  He has gone 1-3 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in six starts, including 0-2 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in four road starts.

Atlanta is 1-9 off a loss by 2 runs or less this season, losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Morton is 10-0 in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Houston +5.5

I still think the Houston Rockets are the better team in this series, so I'm likely to back them the rest of the way, just as I did in Game 4.  And the numbers have shown that they've been the better team.

The Rockets can score at will.  They have put up 125 and 126 points in their two victories in this series, and the Spurs are a great defensive team.  They have outscored the Spurs by 12 points in four games thus far.

The main theme for me is that the Spurs are too much of a one-man show with Kawhi Leonard, while the Rockets have a number of different players that can beat you outside of James Harden.  The Rockets simply have too many weapons for the Spurs.

Houston is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -146

The Washington Nationals (21-11) and Baltimore Orioles (21-10) have been two of the best teams in baseball this season, so this is a very intriguing series.  I expect Game 1 to go to the road team due to their massive edge on the mound.

The Nationals send ace Max Scherzer to the mound.  He has been as consistent as any elite starter in the game over the past few seasons.  Scherzer is 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in six starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.784 WHIP in three road starts.

Ubaldo Jimenez doesn't deserve a spot in Baltimore's rotation, and he hasn't for a few years.  Jimenez is 1-1 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.740 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-0 with a 9.40 ERA and 2.089 WHIP in two home starts.

The Nationals are 20-6 in Scherzer's last 26 road starts.  Washington is 11-3 in its last 14 road games.  The Orioles are 0-7 in their last seven Tuesday games.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Utah +9

The Utah Jazz aren't the type of team that is just going to pack it in when trailing 0-3 in the series.  They are a prideful team that wants to put an end to a 9-game losing streak in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  And even if they don't win tonight, they can still easily cover as 9-point dogs.

The Jazz have at least been competitive in all three games, losing by 12, 11 and 11 points.  And they held a lead late against the Warriors before falling apart in the final few minutes to lose by 11 in Game 3.  Plus Steph Curry and Kevin Durant couldn't miss with Durant even banking in a 3-pointer at the end of the shot clock late.

Utah is 39-16 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% record or better) playing a team with a winning record are 73-38 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  Utah is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Jazz in Game 4 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -112

The Toronto Blue Jays have a massive edge on the mound tonight with Marcus Stroman over Trevor Bauer.  I think they should be much bigger favorites as a result tonight as they host the Cleveland Indians for Game 1 of this series.

Marcus Stroman has gone 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA in six starts this year.  Stroman has owned the Indians, going 0-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in three career starts against them, all of which came last season.

Bauer is 2-3 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in five starts this season.  Bauer has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a monstrous 8.18 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Toronto is 26-7 in home games after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last three seasons.  The Indians are 0-4 in their last four during Game 1 of a series.  Take the Blue Jays Monday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Houston -5.5

The Houston Rockets have lost the last two games of this series after winning Game 1 by 27 points.  It appears they have relaxed these last two games, but now they'll be going full throttle at home tonight to try and even this series at 2-2.

Houston scored 126 points in Game 1.  But it has let San Antonio dictate the tempo these past two games, being held to just 96 and 92 points, respectively.  Look for the Rockets to get back to pushing the tempo.  They're not going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 3 either when they shot 36.4%.

Houston is 8-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite this season.  The Spurs are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - double revenge - two straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Sunday.

15* Yankees/Cubs ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -129

The Chicago Cubs have lost the first two meetings of this series with the New York Yankees.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight.  They'll get the win with ace Jon Lester on the mound.

Lester has gone 1-1 with a 3.67 ERA in six starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three home starts.  Lester is 13-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 29 career starts against the Yankees as well.

Luis Severino is off to a decent start this season for the Yankees, going 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in five starts.  But he has never been able to sustain this kind of success at the big league level.  And he allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against Toronto.

Lester is a perfect 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last two seasons.  Lester is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game  in his career.  Take the Cubs Sunday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 3 No-Brainer on Utah +6.5

The Utah Jazz have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-14 at home this season.  They were at least competitive in their two games at Golden State, covering the spread in both games.  Now they are catching 6.5 points at home in Game 3 with the series basically on the line.  I look for a big effort from them here.

The Jazz have played the Warriors tough at home over the past few years.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City, not once losing by more than 7 points.  And the only non-cover came in overtime in a 96-103 loss as 4.5-point dogs last season.

Plays against favorites (Golden State) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home underdogs (UTAH) - revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off two no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996.

The Jazz are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Jazz in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -112

We're getting the best team in the AL Central in the Cleveland Indians at a great value today against the worst team in the division in the Kansas City Royals.  We'll take advantage and back the Indians here.

Josh Tomlin hasn't been on top of his game yet this season, but that's why we're getting this good price.  But Tomlin is 8-4 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 17 career starts against Kansas City.  He is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last five starts against the Royals, giving up just 5 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings.

Jason Vargas is off to a great start for the Royals, which is why he is being overvalued now.  But don't expect much run support for him as the Royals are hitting .215 and scoring 2.9 runs per game this season.  Vargas has posted a 4.68 ERA in 13 career starts against Cleveland.

Kansas City is 1-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in day games this season.  Tomlin is 16-4 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.  The Indians are 15-2 in Tomlin's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Royals are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. American League Central opponents.  Take the Indians Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -127

The Houston Astros have been one of the most profitable teams to back this season due to their 19-10 start.  They have lived up to their potential this season with one of the best lineups in baseball, one of the top bullpens, and an improved starting rotation.

Speaking of living up to their potential, 2015 AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel has returned to that form after a sub-par 2016 campaign.  Keuchel is 5-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.806 WHIP in six starts this season.  He is 10-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.274 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Angels as well.

Jesse Chavez has gone 2-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in five starts this season.  Chavez is 3-2 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in six career starts against the Astros.  He is an average starter, but he's no match for Keuchel and this potent Astros' lineup tonight.

The Astros are 5-0 in Keuchel's last five starts vs. AL West opponents.  Houston is 12-3 in its last 15 vs. AL West foes.  The Astros are 6-0 in their last six during game 1 of a series.  The Angels are 18-38 in their last 56 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Houston is 16-6 in the last 22 meetings, including 4-0 in Keuchel's last four starts vs. Los Angeles.  Take the Astros Friday.

15* Spurs/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -4

The Houston Rockets relaxed in Game 2 after throttling the Spurs 126-99 in Game 1.  They actually kept it close for three quarters before getting blown out in the 4th by the Spurs in Game 2.  The Spurs simply wanted that game more, but that won't be the case tonight as the series heads to Houston for Game 3.

I truly believe that the Rockets are the better team in this series and will win it when it's all said and done.  And Game 3 tonight is their chance to prove that they are the better team.  The Rockets have gone 33-11 at home this season and will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd.

James Harden will be motivated to redeem himself following a 3-for-17 shooting performance in Game 2.  And the problem remains for the Spurs that Kawhi Leonard has to do too much for them.  Now his task is even taller with starting PG Tony Parker out for the season with a torn quad muscle suffered in Game 2.  Leonard will have to handle the ball even more on offense for them, while also being tasked with guarding Harden on the other end.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Spurs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.  Houston is 18-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Take the Rockets in Game 3 Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors +2

This same thing happened last year before the Raptors got back in the series in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cavs.  They were blown out in their first two games last year in Cleveland, but then rebounded to win Games 3 and 4 at home.  I think they'll repeat that feat again this year.

Home-court advantage has been huge the last two years in the playoffs in this series.  The home team is now 7-1 SU in the last eight playoff games between these teams  The only exception was a Cavs' win in Toronto in Game 6 last year to close out the series.  The Raptors are 30-14 at home this year, while the Cavs are a very vulnerable 22-21 on the road.

I think Cleveland is going to relax in Game 3 tonight.  The Cavaliers have won six straight games to open this postseason just as they did last year.  It's only human nature to relax when things have been going this well for them.  The fact of the matter is that the Raptors are going to want this game more, and that's going to show on the court and on the scoreboard.

Cleveland is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Cavaliers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Raptors are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Friday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Washington -5.5

I've been riding the Boston Celtics with a ton of success during their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in their last six games overall.  However, I'm going to switch gears here and take the Washington Wizards in Game 3.

This is do-or-die for the Wizards tonight.  It's a must-win game as they trail 2-0 after blowing Game 2 and eventually losing in overtime.  I look for them to respond in a big way at home tonight and to win by a comfortable margin.

The Wizards have had one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  They are 33-11 at home while scoring 110.3 points per game and shooting 48.1% from the field.  They are much more comfortable here in DC, and I look for John Wall to have a monster game to lead the way.

Boston is 2-10 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season.  The Celtics are 3-15 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Wizards in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5

We were on the Houston Rockets in Game 1 of this series in a 126-99 victory.  They dominated from start to finish and led by 30 points at halftime.  The Spurs will give a better effort in Game 2, but the fact of the matter remains that the Rockets are the better team.

Getting 5.5 points in Game 2 is a real nice value when you look at the season series.  The Spurs have won three of five meetings, but they haven't won by more than 6 points, and three games have been decided by exactly 2 points.  The Rockets have been the better team in the season series.

The Spurs are vulnerable because they are so reliant on one player in Kawhi Leonard.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been a no-show, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli don't have much left in the tank, and Danny Green is on the downside of his career as well.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are a complete team that can beat you even if James Harden is having an off game, which is rare.

Houston is 13-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Houston is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four Conference Semifinals games.  Bet the Rockets in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -131

After losing three of their last four games coming in, the Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks.  They are scoring 6.7 runs per game this season and should get their bats going again tonight.

Robbie Ray is 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.351 WHIP in five starts this season.  He has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-2 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in two career starts against them, both of which came last season.

Gio Gonzalez has been lights out for the Nationals, going 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in five starts this season.  Gonzalez has pitched well against the Diamondbacks, going 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA in six career starts against them.

The Diamondbacks are 7-18 in Ray's last 25 road starts, including 2-8 in its last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Nationals are 8-2 in Gonzalez's last 10 home starts.  Washington is 58-26 in its last 84 Wednesday games and 18-5 in Gonzalez's last 23 Wednesday starts.  Take the Nationals Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -112

The Kansas City Royals can finally breathe again after ending their dreadful 9-game losing streak with a 6-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox yesterday.  Now I believe they get back in the win column again tonight with their ace on the mound.

Danny Duffy remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in five starts this season.  Duffy is 6-3 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 15 career starts against Chicago.

Jose Quintana knows that he's likely to be traded this season, so his focus isn't there.  Quintana has gone 1-4 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in five starts this season.  The left-hander is 2-9 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 23 career starts against the Royals as well.

The White Sox are 1-5 in Quintana's last six road starts.  The Royals are 6-1 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Kansas City is 25-8 in Duffy's last 33 home starts.  The Royals are 6-1 in Duffy's last seven home starts vs. Chicago.  The White Sox are 5-17 in Quintana's last 22 starts vs. Kansas City.  Take the Royals Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -5

The Boston Celtics have been on a roll ever since Isaiah Thomas returned from his first trip to Washington to see his family.  His mind has been more set at ease, and the Celtics' players have rallied around him during their impressive 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS streak coming in to Game 2.

The Celtics have been much more efficient offensively as they have scored at least 104 points in five straight games.  But perhaps the biggest difference has been defense as they've allowed 97 or fewer points in four of their last five.  This is a locomotive right now that you do not want to step in front of.

The Wizards were shelled for 123 points on 51.1% shooting by the Celtics in Game 1.  Not having Ian Mahinmi really hurts their defense, and now forward Markieff Morris has an ankle injury that he suffered in Game 1.  The Celtics really pulled away once Morris went out with that injury.

The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Wizards.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Houston +6

The Houston Rockets put the Oklahoma City Thunder away in five games and now have had extra rest heading into this series with the San Antonio Spurs.  They haven't played since April 25th and will be ready to go in this series, one that I think they win against a vulnerable Spurs squad.

Getting 6 points in Game 1 is a real nice value when you look at the regular season series.  Yes, the Spurs won three of four meetings, but all four games were decided by 6 points or less, including three by exactly 2 points.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well.

The Spurs are vulnerable because they are so reliant on one player in Kawhi Leonard.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been a no-show, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli don't have much left in the tank, and Danny Green is on the downside of his career as well.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are a complete team that can beat you even if James Harden is having an off game, which is rare.

Houston is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Rockets are 13-2 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Houston is 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this year.  The Spurs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 1 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -108

The Atlanta Braves have really gotten their bats going of late.  They have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 39 runs, which equates to 7.8 runs per game.  Those bats should stay red hot tonight against an overmatched starter in Robert Gsellman.

Gsellman is 0-2 with an 8.27 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has given up 19 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings.  Gsellman has never beaten the Braves, going 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA and 2.024 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He gave up 6 runs and 13 base runners in 4 innings of a 2-8 loss to the Braves in his last start on April 26th.

Ace Julio Teheran is off to a solid start this season for Atlanta, going 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in five starts.  To say Teheran owns the Mets would be an understatement as he's 8-3 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  He has allowed just 2 runs in 12 1/3 innings in two starts against the Mets in 2017 already.

The Mets are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall.  They gave up 23 runs to the Nationals yesterday.  They are without their best hitter right now in Yoenis Cespedes.  The Braves are 6-0 in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Braves Monday.

20* Jazz/Clippers Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

The road team has actually won four of the six games in this series.  That is unheard of in a playoff series, and I don't expect that trend to continue in this do-or-die Game 7.  I think that trend has offered us some tremendous line value on the Clippers here laying only 3.5 points.

The Clippers still have the best player in the series in Chris Paul, who has just been a monster in the fourth quarter all series and who I trust more than anyone to get the job done.  And the healthy return of Austin Rivers has been huge as well.  His defense on Gordon Hayward has been great, but he also scored 13 points and hit three 3-pointers in Game 6.

Utah is 17-31 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Rudy Gobert suffered an ankle injury in the second half of Game 6 and wasn't the same player down the stretch.  I have a hard time believing it will be heeled in time for Game 7, which could be a huge factor in the outcome.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -101

Martin Perez has been a monster at home over the past two seasons.  The Rangers are used to winning his starts at home, and they are always at great prices like this -101 price today.  We'll back Perez and the Rangers here.

Perez has posted a 3.12 ERA in three home starts this season.  Perez has also posted a 3.29 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in eight career starts against the Angels.  Perez has been dominant at home against the Angels, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in four career starts, allowing just 4 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings.

JC Ramirez is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this game Sunday.  He is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in two road starts.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in those two road starts.

The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  Perez is 15-6 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.  Texas is 5-2 in its last seven home meetings with Los Angeles.  Take the Rangers Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -113

The Milwaukee Brewers blew leads of 4-0 and 8-4 yesterday and lost to the Atlanta Braves 10-8 after giving up two more runs in the 9th inning.  Look for them to come back highly motivated here in Game 2 to get the victory at a great value as small home favorites.

Jimmy Nelson has pitched well at home this season, posting a 3.18 ERA through two starts.  Nelson has owned the Braves in his two career starts against them, posting a 2.31 ERA while allowing just three earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.

Jaime Garcia is still looking for his first win of the season for the Braves.  He has gone 0-1 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.329 WHIP in four starts, including 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in three road starts.

Plays on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - very good NL offensive team (at least 5.0 runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (4.50 ERA or worse), starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing are 92-35 (72.4%, +43.8 units) since 1997.  Bet the Brewers Saturday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6

The Los Angeles Clippers are tired of early exits in the playoffs.  With Chris Paul healthy, they still have a shot to win this series, and I think they go on the road and get another huge win in Utah like Game 3.  Getting the 6 points here is just an added bonus.

Each of the last three games really could have gone either way.  All three were basically toss-up games in the final minutes, and the Jazz managed to win two of the three thanks to some late-game heroics from Joe Johnson.  I certainly do not believe he can keep up his level of play.

The fact of the matter is that the role players are due for the Clippers.  Both JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford have been off the entire series, but they are too good of shooters to stay cold forever.  And Doc Rivers has more options now to go small and match the Jazz with Austin Rivers healthy.  That small ball lineup got them back into the game in Game 5.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in home games after covering four of its last five against the spread over the past three seasons.  The Clippers are still 19-5 SU in their last 24 meetings with the Jazz.  Look for an inspired effort from them tonight as they try and send this series back to Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers in Game 6 Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -123

The Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They've gone 12-11 and have scored a combined 29 runs in winning three straight coming in.  They had yesterday off, which is a huge advantage for them here.

The Atlanta Braves just swept the New York Mets in their series yesterday.  They don't have the luxury of having a day off like the Brewers, and that should be factored into the line more.  Instead we are getting a cheap price with the Brewers here in Game 1 at home.

And Milwaukee clearly has the edge on the mound.  Chase Anderson is 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has never lost to the Braves, going 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Bartolo Colon may finally be slowing down this season.  He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA in two road starts.  Colon is 4-3 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in nine career starts against the Brewers as well.

Milwaukee is 10-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line off two straight home wins against division rivals over the last three seasons.  The Braves are 16-42 in their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Atlanta is 3-8 in its last 11 road games.  The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six during Game 1 of a series.  Roll with the Brewers Friday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 6 No-Brainer on Atlanta -3

The home team has won all five meetings in this series, and I think that holds true again here in Game 6.  I would argue that the Hawks have been the better team in this series thus far and should be favored by more at home here.

Atlanta won its two home games by a combined 28 points, while Washington won its three home games by a combined 19 points.  So, the Hawks have actually outscored the Wizards by a combined 9 points in this series thus far despite playing three of five games on the road.

Atlanta has plenty of playoff experience to rely on over the past few years in this do-or-die situation.  Meanwhile, John Wall and the Wizards basically have zero experience in close-out games, which are the toughest to win.

The Hawks are a perfect 9-0 ATS after two consecutive division games over the last two seasons.  Washington is 10-24 ATS in road games versus teams who average 23 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet the Hawks in Game 6 Friday.

15* A's/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -120

The Los Angeles Angels come in playing well having won three straight and four of their last five.  I think they'll continue this momentum tonight and finish off the sweep of the Oakland A's.  The A's have lost three straight while scoring a combined 7 runs in the process.

Ricky Nolasco has allowed two earned runs in two of his last three starts and has posted a 4.76 ERA on the season.  Nolasco certainly enjoys facing the A's, going 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He pitched 8 innings without allowing a single earned run in his last home start against Oakland, an 8-1 victory last season.

Kendall Graveman is overvalued due to going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA through three starts this season.  But Graveman was blasted in his last start at Los Angeles, giving up 6 earned runs in 4 innings of a 6-8 loss to the Angels last season.

The A's are 3-10 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Oakland is 2-8 in Graveman's last 10 starts vs. AL West opponents.  The Angels are 15-5 in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last five home meetings with Oakland.  Take the Angels Thursday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio -4

The home team has won every meeting in this series dating back to the regular season, which is nine straight games.  I was on the Grizzlies in Game 3 and 4 at home, but I have a better feeling today that the Spurs are going to close it out tonight.

The Spurs have clearly been the better team in this series, winning all three home meetings by 13 points or more.  They have outscored the Grizzlies by 43 points in this series, an average of 8.6 points per game.  The Grizzlies were fortunate to win in overtime in Game 4, and I think their luck runs out tonight.

Expect Greg Popovich to challenge his team here to get a road win knowing that they are going to need them down the road if they want to reach their ultimate goal.  And the Rockets are sitting at home waiting on them, so the Spurs don't want this to go to a Game 7 and give the Rockets and even bigger advantage.  They'll be 'all in' tonight to finish the job.  Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston -7.5

The Boston Celtics have really played up to their potential in the past two games.  They were out of it after Isaiah Thomas lost his sister, but after he went home to be with his family following two home losses to Chicago, he and the Celtics have come back a completely different team.

They dominated from start to finish in a 104-87 win in Game 3 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Then they jumped out to a big lead early, lost it, and then pulled away in the 4th quarter of a 104-95 win as 1.5-point road favorites in Game 4.

A key in this turnaround has been the loss of Rajon Rondo as the Bulls have been helpless on offense without him.  And while there is talk of Rondo possibly returning tonight, he won't be effective at all considering he has a broken thumb on his shooting hand.  It would do the Bulls more harm than good to have him in there.

It will be a raucous atmosphere in Boston tonight, and I think these players are going to be extra motivated to put on a great performance after disappointing their fans in the first two home games.  There's nothing the Bulls can do to halt their momentum right now.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Red Sox AL East ANNIHILATOR on Boston -106

The Boston Red Sox are showing great value as only -106 home favorites over the rival New York Yankees Wednesday.  Rarely ever will you get the Red Sox at this kind of price at home, especially with 2016 AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello on the mound.

But Porcello is undervalued due to a sub-par start to the season that won't last.  He is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA through four starts, but he's really only had one bad start when he gave up eight earned runs to the Rays.  Porcello is 7-6 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Yankees, including 4-3 with a 2.21 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 53 innings.

Luis Severino is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  He's 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA in three starts this season.  But Severino has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA in three career starts against them.  We'll take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank tonight.

Severino is 1-9 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Porcello is 16-2 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are 3-12 in Severino's last 15 starts overall.  Take the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Clippers did not play up to their standards defensively in Utah, giving up 52.2% shooting and 106 points in Game 3, and 54.1% and 105 points in Game 4.  They still managed to split 1-1 and easily could have won both.  Look for them to be much better on defense when they return home for a huge Game 5 Tuesday night.

The Jazz are in trouble right now because they are relying too much on the likes of Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles to make plays for them.  Johnson, Ingles and Rodney Hood caught fire late in Game 4 to erase an 8-point deficit in the 4th and win, but that's unlikely to happen again in Utah.

Rudy Gobert isn't 100%, and Gordon Hayward missed most of Game 4 due to food poisoning.  It's uncertain if Hayward will be back for Game 5, and even if he is he certainly won't be feeling anywhere near 100%.

The Clippers have had a huge home-court advantage all season, going 30-13 straight up.  They basically just have to win this game to cover the 3-point spread.  And they still own the Jazz, going 19-4 in their last 23 meetings.  I trust in veteran Chris Paul to lead this team to victory even without Blake Griffin as Paul is by far their most important player.

Utah is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 157-99 (61.3%) ATS since 1996.   The Jazz are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -157

The Arizona Diamondbacks want revenge on the San Diego Padres after losing two out of three to them last week.  Zach Greinke wants revenge on Jhoulys Chacin after an absolute pitcher's duel last week in which the Padres won 1-0.

Greinke is clearly the better starter here, going 1-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in four starts this season.  Chacin is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in four starts, including 0-2 with a 14.05 ERA and 2.641 WHIP in two road starts.

Greinke has owned the Padres throughout his career.  Indeed, he is 8-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in 17 career starts against them.  The Diamondbacks are 8-2 at home this season, hitting .316 and scoring a whopping 7.4 runs per game.  The Padres are just 3-8 on the road, hitting .207 and scoring 3.0 runs per game.

Greinke is 80-23 (+39.3 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in his career.  Greinke is 34-7 (+24.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse in his career.  The Padres are 14-40 in their last 54 road games vs. a right-handed starter.   Take the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta -2

I would argue that the Atlanta Hawks have been the better team in this series despite being down 2-1.  They were in both games in Washington in losses by 7 and 8 points before fading late.  Then they blew out the Wizards by 18 in Game 3, and now they actually are +3 in point differential in the series.

What I like about the Hawks is how aggressive they have been in getting to the basket.  They shot 39 free throws in Game 1, 38 in Game 2 and 32 in Game 3.  The Wizards haven't been able to keep Dennis Shroeder out of the paint as he's averaging 25 points in this series.  I also like how Schroeder picked Wall up defensively full court in Game 3, making it more difficult for the Wizards to get into their offense.

"I watched video," Schroder said. "The first two games it was too easy to just bring it up half-court and have all these passes. I told Coach I want to be in his stuff. I want to take him full court. That's what I did (Saturday), and it worked well."

The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 1 days rest.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 4 Monday.

15* Clippers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT On Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz let the Los Angeles Clippers off the hook in Game 3.  The blew an 8-point lead late as Chris Paul simply took over down the stretch.  The Clippers rallied around each other after losing Blake Griffin to an injury, and they came through with a huge win.

But now it's the Jazz turn to get a big win here and get right back in this series.  They can't afford to go back to Los Angeles down 3-1.  I look for a big effort from them here behind a raucous home crowd.  The Jazz are 29-13 at home this season and have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.

Make no mistake, the Clippers aren't going anywhere now that Griffin is out for the rest of the postseason.  The Clippers just haven't been the same without him in the past, and they really can't afford to lose him, Paul or DeAndre Jordan.  The loss of Griffin for the Clippers is bigger than the loss of Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.

Utah is 37-16 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - off a home loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Bulls Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

The Boston Celtics were distracted with the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister in the first two games.  But he went home after Game 2 and spent time with his family to grieve.  In Game 3, players rallied around him and got back to focusing on basketball, and the end result was a dominant 104-87 win.

The Celtics also got a motivational speech from Kevin Garnett, the former Boston great.  Every player to a man said it was the difference, and I believe them.  But with the Celtics still having their backs against the wall, this Game 4 remains a must-win, and I think we see another big effort from them.

Boston got a break when Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2.  Now he's out indefinitely, and he was nearly averaging a triple-double in the first two games.  The Bulls simply don't have a good backup point guard, so Rondo's absence is huge for them.  It puts more pressure on Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade to handle the ball, but they are much better playing off the ball and letting Rondo run the show.

The Bulls are just 3-10 in their last 13 playoff home games, including three straight losses.  I just don't think their home-court advantage is enough for them to overcome the loss of Rondo.  The Celtics are the far superior team in this matchup and that will be shown again in Game 4.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -110

The San Francisco Giants have lost three straight to fall to 6-12 on the season.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a win Sunday to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies.

Jeff Samardzija hasn't been great in the early going, but he has faced Arizona twice and Colorado, two great lineups.  And he has had plenty of success against the Rockies, going 3-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Kyle Freeland has not fared well this season for the Rockies.  He is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.704 WHIP in three starts, averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  He even gave up 6 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings at home to the lowly Padres in his last home start.

The Giants are 4-1 in their last five games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Rockies are 1-6 in their last seven during game 3 of a series.  Roll with the Giants Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -110

The Philadelphia Phillies have a massive edge on the mound tonight.  We'll take advantage and back them as small home favorites over the Atlanta Braves in this one.

Jerad Eickhoff is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.118 WHIP through three starts this season.  Eickhoff has owned the Braves, going 2-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Jaime Garcia is far past his prime for the Braves.  It hasn't worked out for them thus far getting Garcia, who is 0-1 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in three starts this season.

Eickhoff is 8-1 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last three seasons.  The Braves are 15-42 in their last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Atlanta is 1-6 in its last seven road games.  Take the Phillies Saturday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks were competitive in Games 1 and 2 in Washington, losing by 7 and 8 points.  They did not finish either game well as they had a chance to win down the stretch.  But now with their backs against the wall, I expect their best effort of the series as the head home for Game 3.

Adding to the Hawks' motivation is the fact that they have now lost five straight meetings with the Wizards dating back to the regular season.  It's safe to say that they are going to want this game more, and I expect them to get it in front of their home fans tonight.

Washington is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after two straight games where it committed 7 or fewer turnovers than its opponents.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Clippers seemed to relax when Rudy Gobert went out with an injury in Game 1.  They lost that game on a buzzer-beater by Joe Johnson, but they came back focused in Game 2 and got the job done in a 99-91 victory.

Now Gobert remains out for the Jazz tonight, and it's a huge loss for them.  Look for the Clippers to seize the opportunity and take Game 3 to regain home-court advantage.  They are clearly the more talented team and still own the Jazz, going 19-3 SU in their last 22 meetings.

Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have all put up huge numbers through the first two games.  But the role players have really struggled, and they won't continue to.  Jamal Crawford is shooting a paltry 29.2% and is 0-for-9 from 3-point range.  J.J. Redick is averaging just 5.5 points and shooting 20% from 3-point range in this series.  Look for these two to be much more efficient moving forward.

Plays against underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 55-17 (76.4%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Clippers in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -118

The San Francisco Giants have gotten off to a poor 6-10 start this season.  I think they are undervalued right now because of it, and I like the price we are getting with them Friday as small road favorites over the Colorado Rockies.

Johnny Cueto went 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts in his first season in San Francisco last year.  He is 3-0 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in three starts in 2017.  Cueto has owned the Rockies, going 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.

The Rockies are overvalued right now due to their 10-6 start despite the fact that they are hitting just .224 and scoring 3.4 runs per game with an injury-ravaged lineup.  Their good fortune won't last as their starting rotation simply isn't as good as it has been through the first 16 games.

Cueto is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Cueto is 17-2 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  San Francisco is 26-10 in Cueto's last 36 starts overall.  Roll with the Giants Friday.

20* Celtics/Bulls ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

It is gut check time for the Boston Celtics in Game 3 tonight.  The Celtics inexplicably lost the first two games in this series at home, and now they know that their season is on the line tonight.  It's basically win or go home here.

The death of Isaiah Thomas' sister was a huge distraction in the first two games as the Celtics were clearly out of it.  But Thomas went home to his family after Game 2 to deal with it.  Now he'll come back with a clearer mind in Game 3, and I think the players will rally around him in one of their best efforts of the season.

The Celtics got a big break when it was announced that Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2 and is now out indefinitely.  There will be a huge void at the PG position for the Bulls now because Rondo was playing very well, averaging 11.5 points, 10.0 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game in this series.

The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Bulls are 10-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  Boston is 41-27 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -113

The St. Louis Cardinals have rebounded by winning three straight games to build some momentum after a slow start to the season.  Now they send their ace to the mound to take care of the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this series Thursday.

Carlos Martinez will be highly motivated for his first win of the season after an 0-2 start despite a 3.57 ERA through three starts this year.  Martinez owns the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 1.790 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Zach Davies has been awful in the early going for the Brewers.  He is 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA and 2.024 WHIP through three starts.  Davies has allowed 14 earned runs and 29 base runners over 14 1/3 innings this year.

St. Louis is 17-5 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  Martinez is 15-3 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 19-8 in Martinez's last 27 road starts.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Davies' last five home starts.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Cavs/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +2.5

The Indiana Pacers are the worst road team in the playoffs.  However, they managed to take the Cavs down to the wire on the road in each of the first two games of this series, losing by 1 and 6 points, respectively.  Now they'll be laying it all on the line to get a win in Game 3 and get back in this series.

And they should do just that now that they are returning to Indiana, where they are one of the best home teams in the playoffs.  The Pacers have gone 29-12 at home this season.  They have now gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Cavaliers actually had a losing record on the road this season.  They went 20-21 SU & 17-24 ATS on the road this year.  The Pacers have gone 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Indiana.

Indiana is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games playing on two days' rest.  The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six Conference Quarterfinals games.  The Cavaliers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Thunder/Rockets Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1.  They only managed 87 points and shot just 37% from the field.  Expect them to come back with a much better effort in Game 2 and to stay within the number as they try and steal this one.

"Looking at video, it was definitely down to positioning and getting those reads on when to go," Thunder center Steven Adams said. "You can't be premature about it, otherwise they do what they do. We cleared it up a lot more, bigs and guards. We've got to make sure we come out more aggressive, aggressive and physicality. Forcing them to do stuff rather than letting them do stuff."

Three of the four meetings during the regular season went right down to the wire and were decided by 3 points or less.  I expect this one to hold true to form and to go down to the last few possessions, so getting the Thunder are +8 is a huge value here.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days' rest.  The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -128

The New York Mets are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight coming in.  That includes a 2-6 loss in 10 innings last night after Jose Reyes dropped a routine fly ball that would have given the Mets the win.

Robert Gsellman is off to a poor start this year, but now he faced a team he has owned.  Gsellman has gone 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia.  He gave up just one earned run in 13 innings while striking out 15 in his final two starts against the Phillies last season.

Vincent Velasquez is struggling as well, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in two starts this season.  He is 1-2 with a 3.54 ERA in four career starts against New York.  He gave up 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 4-5 loss to the Mets in his last start on April 12th.

The Phillies are 14-37 in their last 51 games following a win.  Philadelphia is 4-13 in its last 17 road games.  The Phillies are 1-10 in Velasquez's last 11 starts.  The Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  New York is 39-16 in the last 55 meetings, and 15-6 in the last 21 home meetings.  Take the Mets Wednesday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Orioles/Reds OVER 9

The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field today at about 8 miles per hour.  That will aid the offenses as they feast on two overmatched starting pitchers in this game between the Orioles and Reds.

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the worst starters in baseball and it's amazing he's been able to keep his rotation spot in Baltimore.  He is 0-0 with a 10.39 ERA and 2.079 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.

Amir Garrett has gotten off to a great start for the Reds, but it's only a small sample size.  He'll be up against a Baltimore team that has scored 35 combined runs in its last six games overall, an average of 5.8 runs per game.  The Reds have put up 5.1 runs per game on the season behind an underrated lineup.

Cincinnati is 18-6 to the OVER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 62% or greater over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 9-2 in Orioles last 11 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 14-6-1 in Jimenez's last 21 starts.  The OVER is 11-4 in Reds last 15 home games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5

After Rudy Gobert went out with an injury on the first possession of Game 1, the Clippers appeared to relax and think that they would win the game by just showing up.  That wasn't the case as the Jazz rallied around Gobert and stole Game 1.

I think that with that wake-up call, the Clippers will put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight.  Gobert remains out for Game 2, meaning that the Clippers will have a massive advantage inside.  Look for monster games from Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in this one as Los Angeles evens this series in blowout fashion.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last several years.  Indeed, the Clippers are 18-3 in their last 21 meetings with the Jazz.  Utah is 2-10 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Clippers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -130

I backed the St. Louis Cardinals with success yesterday and I'm going to jump back on them today at a reasonable price against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  I like them to take this series and possibly sweep it giving the situation coming in.

The Pirates are in letdown mode after sweeping the defending champion Cubs over the weekend.  The Cardinals are extra motivated due to their 4-9 start this season which included a sweep at the hands of the Yankees over the weekend.

Mike Leake has been dominant in two starts for the Cardinals, going 1-1 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.733 WHIP while allowing only one earned run and 11 base runners in 15 innings.  Leake is 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA in 28 career starts against Pittsburgh.  Chad Kuhl is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis is 16-5 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Bets on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last five games, starting a pitcher who walked 1 or fewer hitters each of his last two outings are 105-34 (75.5%, +58.6 units) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -7

After losing Game 1 to the Bulls, I fully expect the Boston Celtics to bounce back in a big way in Game 2.  Look for them to win this game going away similar to their 100-80 home win over the Bulls in their final regular season meeting.

The Isaiah Thomas news with his sister passing away really was a down for this team.  Now that they've had a few extra days to cope with it, I think they'll come back more focused tonight and get back to playing their brand of basketball.

Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 9-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 16-30 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers know they can play with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They took them to double-OT in Cleveland in their final meeting of the regular season on April 2nd, and then they had a chance to win it at the buzzer in a 108-109 loss in Game 1 Saturday.

The Pacers had to win each of their final five regular season games just to make the playoffs.  They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season right now, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs here in Game 2.

The Cavaliers actually have a losing record since the All-Star Break.  The betting public just thinks that they can turn it on the playoffs, but I don't think that's going to be the case.  We'll make some good money fading them throughout the postseason.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinal Games.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Cleveland is 18-38-1 ATS in its last 57 vs. division opponents, while Indiana is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 vs. division foes.  The Pacers are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -130

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home from a 6-game road trip tonight.  They were just swept by the Yankees and have lost six of their last seven overall coming in.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a big letdown spot heading into Game 1 of this series.  They just swept the defending champion Cubs in Chicago over the weekend, which is a huge feat.  They won't be nearly as interested against the Cardinals tonight.

Lance Lynn is 13-2 against the money line in Monday games in his career.  Lynn is 22-5 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest in his career.  The Pirates are 0-7 in their last seven Monday games.  Take the Cardinals Monday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

Russell Westbrook got some much-needed rest over the final week of the regular season and will be ready to go in the playoffs.  That's important because the Thunder get outscored by 9 points per 100 possessions when he's not on the court, and outscore their opponents by 3 points per 100 when he is on the floor.

Westbrook only averages 34 minutes per game in the regular season.  That will be closer to 40 minutes in the postseason as Billy Donovan knows he needs Westbrook on the floor as much as possible.  That adjustment will make the Thunder a much better team throughout the course of a 48-minute game.

Yes, Houston won three of four meetings with OKC this season, but three of them were decided by 3 points or less.  I have a good feeling this game is going to go right down to the wire.  The Rockets come in playing their worst ball of the season, going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.  I don't think they can just flip on the switch, either.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -123

The Minnesota Twins are a team I'm going to be looking to back a lot this season because I believe they are underrated by oddsmakers and the betting public.  They are off to a fast 7-4 start this season.  Look for them to take this series from the Chicago White Sox with a win in Game 3 Sunday.

Hector Santiago is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.883 WHIP in two starts this season.  Santiago has owned the White Sox throughout his career, going 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in five starts against them.

James Shields is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He went 4-12 with a 6.77 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 22 starts for the White Sox last season.  That includes 0-2 with a 9.65 ERA in his last two starts against the Twins, giving up 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 1/3 innings.

Santiago is 12-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons.  The White Sox are 0-4 in Shields' last four road starts.  The Twins are 5-0 in their last five during Game 3 of a series.  Take the Twins Sunday.

20* Jazz/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are the second-best team in the Western Conference when healthy in my opinion.  They battled through injuries to several key players this season, including Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, but now they are full healthy entering the playoffs.

And as they've chased down the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round, they've played their best basketball of the season now healthy.  Indeed, the Clippers are 7-0 in their last seven games overall, including five straight double-digit victories.  They needed all seven wins to fend off the Jazz for the No. 4 seed.

The Jazz are an up-and-coming team that is going to be a playoff contender for the foreseeable future.  However, not many of the key players on the Jazz like Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward have playoff experience, so they will be at a disadvantage in that respect.

The Clippers simply own the Jazz, going 18-2 SU in the last 20 meetings.  They won three of four meetings this season all by 13 points or more.  Utah is 1-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Jazz are 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105)

After getting embarrassed 10-5 at home by the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of this series yesterday, I expect a motivated effort from the Boston Red Sox today.  They'll also be motivated to get Chris Sale his first win of the season.

It's only due to a lack of run support that Sale doesn't have a win yet.  After all, he has posted a 1.23 ERA and 0.682 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners over 14 2/3 innings.

Jake Odorizzi has gone 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts this season for the Rays.  Odorizzi is 3-3 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in 13 career starts against Boston.  Sale is 4-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is 4-17 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 2.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Pacers/Cavs 2017 NBA Playoffs Opener on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the playoffs.  They needed to win their final five games of the season just to get into the playoffs, and that's precisely what they did.  In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all five of their wins coming by 9 points or more.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone in the opposite direction.  Needing to win just two of their final four games to get the No. 1 seed in the East, they instead went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in those four contests.  They gave up at least 114 points in three of the four losses, and defense has been a problem with this team all season.

The Pacers were very competitive with the Cavaliers in the regular season.  They did go just 1-3 SU, but two of their losses came by single-digits, including the latest in double-overtime in Cleveland in a 130-135 loss on April 2nd.  They believe they can play with the Cavs, which is half the battle.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in road games when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -134

The Boston Red Sox were hit hard by the flu early in the season.  They were without Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez for multiple games, and they struggled in those contests.  But now their lineup is fully healthy aside from the injury to Jackie Bradley Jr.

2016 AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello gets the ball tonight looking to continue his dominance of the Rays.  Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 17 career starts against Tampa Bay.

Chris Archer has struggled mightily against the Red Sox.  Indeed, Archer is 1-11 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.649 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  That's right, he has only won one of his 16 starts against Boston.

Porcello is 16-1 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons.  Archer is 1-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Archer is 0-11 (-11.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last two seasons.  Bet the Red Sox Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -127

The Kansas City Royals have dropped each of the first two games of this series to Oakland to fall to 2-6 on the season.  They'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep and pick up their first home win of the season tonight against the A's.

Jason Vargas was dominant in his first start this season, giving up just one earned run over 6 innings of a 5-1 victory at Houston.  He has been unhittable in his last two home starts against the A's, pitching 18 shutout innings while allowing only eight base runners in the process.

Jesse Hahn will be making his first start of the season for the A's tonight.  He will be in over his head here against Vargas, who is 7-7 with a 3.22 ERA in 20 career outings, 18 of them starts, against Oakland.

Vargas is 10-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last three seasons.  Vargas is 33-12 (+18.1 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 in his career.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets +5

The Denver Nuggets could have easily packed it in after getting eliminated from the playoffs with two games to go.  Instead, they went out and handled their business last night, dismantling the Mavericks 109-91 on the road.  Now they have a chance to get to 40 wins in their final game of the season, and I think they'll be the more motivated team here.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  Russell Westbrook rested in their last game, and he's unlikely to play many minutes tonight.  The Thunder are way more concerned about staying healthy and fresh for the playoffs than winning this game tonight.

Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, and I think that benefits the Nuggets more because they are the deeper team.  This situation will only force the Thunder to get as much rest as possible for their key players.

Denver is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -127

The Boston Red Sox are showing excellent value as small home favorites over the Baltimore Orioles today.  The Red Sox got hit by the flu over the past week, but now they are getting healthy and have both Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez back in the lineup today, which are their two best hitters.

Steven Wright has never lost to the Orioles, going 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs and 16 base runners over 16 1/3 innings in those two starts, both of which came last season.

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the worst starters in baseball, and it's amazing that he has been able to keep a rotation spot in Baltimore.  Jimenez is 2-7 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in 15 career starts against Boston.

Jimenez is 1-12 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in road games after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Red Sox are 12-5 in Wright's last 17 starts, including 6-0 in his last six starts vs. AL East opponents.  Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Minnesota Timberwolves just completed a brutal four-game road trip with trips to the Warriors, Blazers, Jazz and Lakers.  They were competitive the entire trip and clearly have not quit.  Now they return home to play their final home game of the season and will want to go out a winner in front of their fans.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the West.  Russell Westbrook just got his record-setting 42nd triple double last time out, so they don't need to focus on that either.  Don't be surprised one bit if Billy Donovan decided to rest his starters these final two games.

The line move in this game suggests that he will rest his starters, or at least limit their minutes.  The Timberwolves opened as -1 favorites and have already been bet up to -4, and I see it going much higher before the game starts.  It would be foolish of the Thunder to go all out in this game.

Oklahoma City is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Timberwolves are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with OKC.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +128

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing excellent value as road underdogs to the Washington Nationals tonight.  The Cardinals need a win after opening 2-5 this season.  They were embarrassed 6-14 in Game 1 of this series and will show some resilience tonight.

Lance Lynn is back from Tommy John surgery and performed well in his first start, giving up 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs.  Lynn has never lost to the Nationals, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Gio Gonzalez has been on the steady decline in recent years.  And Gonzalez has not fared well against the Cardinals of late, giving up 9 earned runs over 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them for a 7.59 ERA.

St. Louis is 14-1 (+15.6 Units) against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Gonzalez is 4-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Nationals are 1-9 in Gonzalez's last 10 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Take the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Monday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7

The Los Angeles Clippers are tied with the Utah Jazz at 49-31.  These teams will play in the first round of the playoffs, but home-court advantage is still at stake.  The Clippers own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny here.

And the Clippers have certainly been fighting to make sure they get home court in the first round.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, winning all five games by at least 6 points, and four of those by 9 points or more.  They are hitting on all cylinders heading into the playoffs.

The Rockets have pretty much been locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West for a while now.  As a result, their play has suffered as they are just 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This game means absolutely nothing to them, and they could rest players since they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  This will be just the 3rd game in 9 days for the Clippers.

The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* Dodgers/Cubs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -142

After playing six straight road games to open the season, the Chicago Cubs get to play their home opener tonight.  This will be a special night with their World Series banner getting raised in what will be a rowdy atmosphere at Wrigley Field.

Jon Lester allowed one run in five innings in his opener against the Cardinals.  He is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in seven career starts against the Dodgers.  He held them to just 3 earned runs over 28 innings for a 0.96 ERA in four starts against them last season.

The Dodgers are notorious for struggling against left-handed starters.  The Dodgers ranked 30th in the majors in average (.213), on-base percentage (.290) and slugging (.332) against southpaws in 2016.  Don't expect their lefty-heavy lineup to be much better against them in 2017.  San Diego lefty Clayton Richard beat them 4-0 and Freeland of the Rockies beat them 2-1 already this season.

Jon Lester is 16-1 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  Lester is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game  on the season in his career.  The Dodgers are 1-8 in their last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 1-7 in Alex Wood's last seven road starts.  The Cubs are 10-1 in Lester's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Cubs Monday.

15* Marlins/Mets ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York -165

The New York Mets have lost their first two games of this series to the Miami Marlins by a combined score of 3-15.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory to avoid the sweep today, especially playing on ESPN's Sunday Night baseball.

Now the Mets send ace Noah Syndergaard to the mound to take care of business.  He is becoming one of the best starters in baseball, going 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 30 starts for the Mets last season.  Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins.

Edinson Volquez is the ace of the Marlins, which just shows how poor their rotation is.  Volquez went 10-11 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 34 starts for the Royals last season.  He is 3-5 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Mets.

Bets against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MIAMI) - top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season are 38-5 (88.4%, +29.7 units) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Mets Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets -4

The Denver Nuggets need a win Sunday or they'll be officially eliminated from the playoffs.  They have played well under this pressure down the stretch, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of them on the road.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for as they are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  That showed in their effort last time out as they lost 99-120 as 9-point road favorites at Phoenix, failing to cover the spread by 30 points.

Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who score at least 106 points per game in the second half of hte season this season.  The Nuggets are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -155

The San Francisco Giants are off to an awful 1-5 start this season.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight, especially after losing the first two games against the Padres in this series by exactly one run.  They'll salvage the series and avoid a sweep Sunday.

Johnny Cueto is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts for the Giants last season.  Cueto is 7-4 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 12 career starts against San Diego.

Clayton Richard is the ace of the Padres, which shows how poor their rotation really is.  He has gone 54-53 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in his big league career.

Cueto is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Cueto is 15-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference.  They trail the Utah Jazz by just one game for that spot, which would give them home-court advantage in that upcoming series.  The Jazz have a tough game in Portland tonight.

The San Antonio Spurs have nothing to play for right now.  They are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  As a result, there's no way they should be favored in this game when they don't care about it, while the Clippers really need it.

And the Clippers have a huge advantage in rest and preparation here.  They have won four straight coming in and have had the last two days off, and they'll be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA today.

Bets against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 212-137 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.  The underdog is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  Take the Clippers Saturday.