15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +155

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value today as big road underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers.  One starter is getting too much respect here and the other starter is lacking the respect he deserves.

Miles Mikolas is that disrespected starter for the Cardinals.  He is 5-4 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in six road starts.  Mikolas is 6-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.

Corbin Burnes has been scuffling for a few weeks now.  He is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in his last three starts and averaging just 4.7 innings per start.  Burnes is 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in nine career starts against St. Louis.  

These starters are much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate.  The Cardinals are 37-15 in their last 52 Monday games.  The Brewers are 0-6 in their last six games as home favorites.  St. Louis is 6-2 in its last eight meetings in Milwaukee.  Roll with the Cardinals Monday.

15* White Sox/Astros ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +148

The Chicago White Sox are getting their bats going again.  They have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are undervalued right now after a disappointing start to the season, but they will prove to be one of the best teams in baseball by season's end.

The White Sox cannot be nearly +150 underdogs to the Astros with the way they are hitting the ball and with Lucas Giolito on the mound.  Giolito is 2-2 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in 11 starts this season.

Christian Javier got off to a great start this season but has come back down to earth.  He is now 3-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.322 WHIP in eight starts this season after going 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.683 WHIP in his last three starts.  Roll with the White Sox Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +148

The Cleveland Guardians are quietly one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have gone 14-4 in their last 18 games overall.  They haven't lost two in a row since May 25-26.  Coming off a loss to the Dodgers in Game 2 after winning Game 1, I expect the Guardians to pull the upset Sunday and take this series.

Ace Shane Bieber goes for the Guardians and he has been one of the best starters in all of baseball over the past few seasons.  Bieber is 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in eight road starts.

Andrew Heaney is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He is making his return from injury after making just two starts up to this point.  He will certainly be on a pitch count.  Heaney allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, in 3 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Guardians in his lone start against them last season.

The Guardians are 13-9 against left-handed starters this season and scoring 5.0 runs per game against them.  The Dodgers are just 7-10 in their last 17 games overall and have scored 4 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 16 games.  Cleveland is 17-2 in Bieber's last 19 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 1.0 or more runs per game.  Take the Guardians Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -134

The Tampa Bay Rays are undervalued right now due to going 2-6 in their first eight games on this 9-game road trip.  We are getting them at a great value against the Baltimore Orioles today, a team they have owned in going 45-15 in the last 60 meetings, including 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Baltimore.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound today with Corey Kluber, who is having a tremendous comeback season.  He is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kluber owns the Orioles, going 5-1 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 12 career starts against them.

Jordan Lyles is 4-5 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 13 starts for the Orioles, including 1-1 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.892 WHIP in his last three starts.  Lyles has never beaten the Rays, going 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in three career starts against them.

The Rays are 56-27 in their last 83 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Orioles are 30-72 in their last 102 vs. AL East opponents.  Baltimore is 37-84 in its last 121 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Rays Sunday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Marlins/Mets UNDER 8.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 8.5 ticket today between the Marlins and Mets.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 60's with 17.2 MPH winds blowing in from left-center at the start of the game.

Taijuan Walker has been solid for the Mets this season at 4-2 with a 3.08 ERA in 10 starts, including 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three home starts.  Braxton Garrett has shown some good stuff in two tough starts against the Giants and Astros, getting through with a 4.00 ERA and 10 K's in 9 innings.  

Garrett pitched 5 shutout innings in a 4-2 victory over the Mets in his lone career start against them.  Walker has allowed 2 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings and 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his last two home starts against the Marlins.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+110)

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory after losing four straight and six of seven to start this brutal road trip.  They'll get back to dominating the Baltimore Orioles like they are used to today with a blowout victory due to their advantage on the mound.

Jeffrey Springs is 2-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Tampa Bay's lone victory during this road trip came with Springs as he fired 5 1/3 shutout innings in a 6-0 win at Minnesota on June 12th.  Springs faced the Orioles on May 21st and pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings in 6-1 victory at Baltimore.

Kyle Bradish is 1-4 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.667 WHIP In nine starts this season with 10 homers allowed in 42 innings.  He was opposite Springs on May 21st when he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of that 6-1 defeat.  The Rays will get their bats going finally against Bradish today.

The Orioles are 16-35 in their last 51 games following a win.  The Rays are 44-15 in the last 59 meetings, including 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Braves/Cubs NL Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 7.5 ticket today.  We saw what winds blowing in could do yesterday when the Cubs won 1-0 over the Braves.  Now we'll see it again today with the forecast calling for 62 degrees and 15.7 MPH winds blowing in from left-center at the start of the game at Wrigley Field.

Kyle Wright is a NL Cy Young contender this season.  He is 7-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in four road starts.  Wright is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in two career starts against the Cubs as well, both of which went UNDER the total.

Justin Steele has been getting better with each start.  He is 1-5 with a 4.33 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in eight starts at Wrigley Field.  Steele has allowed just 2 earned runs in 14 innings in his last two home starts against the Padres and Cardinals.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Braves last five games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cubs last four home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -121

The Minnesota Twins have the advantage on the mound and at the plate over the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Lefty Drew Smeltzer is 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in six starts this season for the Twins.

He'll be opposed by Madison Bumgarner, who is 2-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 13 starts this season while averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  The Twins are likely to get into Arizona's dreadful bullpen (4.46 ERA, 1.411 WHIP) early in this one.

Minnesota is 7-1 in road games after two straight games with zero home runs this season.  The Twins are 23-8 in their last 31 games as favorites.  Minnesota is 6-0 in its last six Friday games.  The Diamondbacks are 19-41 in their last 60 during Game 1 of a series.  Arizona is 19-42 in its last 61 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Twins Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +146

After a slow start this season amidst massive expectations, the Chicago White Sox are currently undervalued to to their 30-31 record.  But they are starting to play up to their potential, especially at the plate.  The White Sox are 3-0 in their last three games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in each of their last seven games coming in.

The White Sox have feasted on left-handed starters over the past couple seasons.  Now they get to face Houston lefty Framber Valdez, who is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in five home starts this season.  Valdez is 1-1 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox as well.

Lucas Giolito is 4-2 with a 3.88 ERA in 10 starts this season with 70 K's in 53 1/3 innings.  Giolito is 2-3 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in six career starts against the Astros.  He should not be this big of an underdog to Houston today.

Houston is 0-8 after scoring eight runs or more this season.  Chicago is 22-7 in its last 29 road games coming off a 3-game series sweep over a division opponent.  The White Sox are 29-12 (+20.1 Units) in Giolito's 41 career road starts vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse.  Chicago is 5-0 in its last five road games.  Take the White Sox Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105)

The defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves have finally found their stride.  They are 14-0 in their last 14 games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 15 contests.  Look for them to make it 15 in a row against a Chicago Cubs team that is 0-10 in their last 10 games overall while getting outscored 90-30 in the process.

Charlie Morton's numbers to this point are keeping the Braves as smaller favorites than they should be this afternoon.  But he has been pretty unfortunate this season, and clearly his stuff is still good as he has 66 K's in 60 1/3 innings, including 20 K's in 11 innings in his last two starts.

The Braves should stay hot at the plate against Keegan Thompson.  He is 3-2 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 13.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in his last three starts.  Thompson has allowed 5 homers and 10 walks with only 14 K's in 23 innings this season.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Friday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics finally lost two games in a row for the first time in these playoffs.  I love their chances of bouncing back in Game 6 tonight and forcing a Game 7 with the resiliency we've seen from this team all playoffs.

The Celtics blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead to the Bucks in Game 5 at home and lost to fall behind 3-2.  They proceeded to win Game 6 in Milwaukee by 13 and Game 7 at home by 28.  They had their chance to close out the Heat in Game 6 at home and lost by 8.  They went on to win Game 7 in Miami.  They are battle-tested in these clutch situations.

The hardest game is the close out game for the Warriors.  The lost their first close out game at Denver by 5.  The blew their first opportunity to close out the Grizzlies in a 39-point road loss.  They also blew their first opportunity to close out the Mavericks in a 10-point road loss.  So, they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their first close out game in all three series in these playoffs.  They know they have Game 7 at home if need be, so they won't be playing with the same kind of urgency the Celtics will be in Game 6.

A lot went wrong for the Celtics in Game 5, not the least of which was a favorable whistle for the Warriors at home.  I think the Celtics will get the favorable whistle at home in Game 6.  Plus, they aren't going to lose the turnover battle 18-6, and they aren't going to miss 10 free throws again.  Those were the biggest differences in the game.

Boston is 11-1 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  The Celtics are 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Boston is 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The Toronto Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball at the plate right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 16 of their last 20 games overall with the OVER going 16-5 in their last 21 games overall.  The Baltimore Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 13 games overall.

Tyler Wells has been at his worst on the road this season for the Orioles.  He is 2-4 with a 4.80 ERA in seven road starts.  Kevin Gausman has been at his worst at home for the Blue Jays.  He is 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in six home starts this season.

The OVER is 21-7-1 in Orioles last 29 games overall.  The OVER is 9-0 in Blue Jays last eight home games.  The OVER is 8-0-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Orioles and Blue Jays have combined for at least 9 runs in each of their last 11 meetings.  Roll with the OVER In this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-125)

The San Diego Padres are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall with nine wins by two runs or more.  They have scored 31 combined runs in crushing the Cubs in the first two games of this series.  It should be more of the same today against a Cubs team that is 0-9 in their last nine games overall while getting outscored 84-26 in the process.

The Padres have a big advantage on the mound tonight today behind ace Joe Musgrove.  He is 7-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 11 starts this season and the Padres have gone 10-1 in his 11 starts.  Musgrove owns the Cubs with a 1.97 ERA and 0.898 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Matt Swarmer's stats are mind-blowing this season.  He has already allowed 9 homers in 17 innings across three starts for the Cubs.  The wind will be blowing out to center at Wrigley Field again, so that's bad news for Swarmer.  To compare, Musgrove has only allowed 4 homers in 72 innings this season.

The Padres are 6-0 in their last six road games.  The Cubs are 19-47 in their last 66 home games.  Take the Padres on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 9

The Toronto Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball at the plate right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 15 of their last 19 games overall with the OVER going 15-5 in their last 20 games overall.  The Baltimore Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 12 games overall.

There will be plenty of runs tonight to top this 9-run total between two starting pitchers.  Heck, the Blue Jays may cover it themselves.  They'll feast on Bruce Zimmerman, who is 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA in 12 starts this season, 1-4 with a 6.03 ERA in six road starts and 0-3 with an 11.30 ERA in his last three starts.  Jose Berrios is 5-2 with a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts for the Blue Jays.

The OVER is 20-7-1 in Orioles last 28 games overall.  The OVER is 8-0 in Blue Jays last eight home games.  The OVER is 7-0-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Orioles and Blue Jays have combined for at least 9 runs in each of their last 10 meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-129)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 14-5 in their last 19 games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in 15 of those 19 games.  They are coming off a one-run loss to the Orioles yesterday, which works in our favor here because the Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss with seven wins by two runs or more.

The Blue Jays have the advantage on the mound today with Jose Berrios, who is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in five home starts this season.  Berrios has never lost to the Orioles, going 6-0 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Bruce Zimmerman is 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA in 12 starts this season, 1-4 with a 6.03 ERA in six road starts and 0-3 with an 11.30 ERA in his last three starts.  Zimmerman has one career start against the Blue Jays, allowing 3 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning in a 4-12 loss to Toronto last season.

Baltimore is 3-36 in its last 39 games after a five-game span with a bullpen ERA of 7.00 or worse coming in and losing by 4.0 runs per game on average in this spot.  Toronto is 37-14 in its last 51 games following a loss.  Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105)

The defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves have finally found their stride.  They are 13-0 in their last 13 games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 14 contests.  Look for them to make it 14 in a row in Game 3 against the Washington Nationals tonight.

Spencer Strider has been impressive in his three starts for the Braves this season.  He is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 20 K's in 14 innings with only one homer allowed.  He will shut down this Washington lineup tonight.

I'll gladly fade Erick Fedde, who is 4-4 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.535 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 10.03 ERA and 2.142 WHIP in his last three.  Fedde has never beaten the Braves, going 0-4 with a 10.01 ERA and 2.123 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Atlanta is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings.  The Braves are 21-7 in their last 28 trips to Washington.  The Nationals are 17-41 in their last 58 home games.  Washington is 12-41 in its last 53 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+100)

The Cleveland Guardians are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall to get to 29-27 and above .500 for the first time this year.  Now they send their ace to the mound to continue their momentum in Game 1 of this series with Colorado tonight.

Shane Bieber has been one of the best starters in baseball over the past couple seasons.  Bieber is 3-3 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 11 starts this season, 2-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in seven road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in his last three starts.

Antonio Senzatela is 2-3 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.854 WHIP in nine starts this season for the ROckies.  He has just 20 K's in 41 innings.  Senzatela allowed 6 earned runs and 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 14-1 loss to the Marlins in his last home start.

The Guardians are 14-1 in Biebers last 15 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 and winning by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  Cleveland is 14-1 in Bieber's 15 career road starts vs. teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game and winning by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Guardians on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 9

The Toronto Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball at the plate right now.  They have scored at least 6 runs in 14 of their last 18 games overall with the OVER going 14-5 in their last 19 games overall.  The Baltimore Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 11 games overall.

There will be plenty of runs tonight to top this 9-run total between two terrible starting pitchers.  Jordan Lyles is 3-5 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in 12 starts, 2-4 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in seven road starts and 0-1 with an 8.16 ERA and 2.233 WHIP in his last three starts.  Lyles is 1-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 2.021 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto as well.

I'd back the Blue Jays tonight, but I don't trust Yusei Kikuchi to shut down the Orioles.  He is 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.83 ERA and 2.224 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kikuchi is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the Orioles as well.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in Orioles last nine games after scoring 2 runs or fewer in their previous game.  The OVER is 19-7-1 in Orioles last 27 games overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in Blue Jays last seven home games.  The OVER is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Orioles and Blue Jays have combined for at least 9 runs in each of their last 9 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135)

The defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves have finally found their stride.  They are 12-0 in their last 12 games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 13 contests.  Look for them to make it 13 in a row in Game 2 against the Washington Nationals tonight.

Ace Max Fried takes the ball for the Braves tonight.  He is 6-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in four road starts.  Fried is also 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts against the Nationals, allowing only 5 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Jackson Tetreault, who will be making his major league debut for the Nationals.

Atlanta is 16-6 in the last 22 meetings.  The Braves are 20-7 in their last 27 trips to Washington.  The Nationals are 17-40 in their last 57 home games.  Washington is 12-40 in its last 52 games as a home underdog.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -125

The San Diego Padres had gone 6-1 in their previous seven games before getting upset in two straight games by the Colorado Rockies over the weekend.  They come into this series with the Chicago Cubs highly motivated for a victory in Game 1.

They take on a Cubs team that is 0-6 in their last six games overall while getting outscored 49-15 in the process.  The Padres should get their bats going against Justin Steele, who is 1-5 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in 11 starts this season.

I expect Yu Darvish to shut down his former team in the Cubs.  Darvish is 5-3 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 11 starts this season while allowing only 5 homers and 15 walks in 67 1/3 innings.  He has posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago.

The Padres are 10-1 in their last 11 games when their opponent allowed 5 or more runs in their previous game.  San Diego is 14-5 in its last 19 games following a loss.  Chicago is 19-44 in its last 63 home games.  Roll with the Padres Monday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +4

The Boston Celtics have been a very resilient bunch all season and in the playoffs.  Look for them to bounce back following a 10-point home loss in Game 4 that evened the series.  Now they are catching too many points in Game 5 on the road, where they have actually played their best basketball in these playoffs.

The Celtics are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their 13 playoff road games.  They won three out of four in Miami last series, two out of three in Milwaukee and swept the Nets on the road.  They haven't lost two games in a row the entire playoffs.  The Celtics are now 9-0 SU in their last nine games following a defeat.

Boston is 10-2 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-135)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 13-4 in their last 17 games overall with 10 wins by two runs or more.  They have scored at least 6 runs in 12 of those 13 victories and are hitting up to their potential right now.  They should easily beat the Baltimore Orioles by two runs or more tonight due to their big advantage on the mound.

Alek Manoah had a tremendous rookie season last year and has backed it up with as an AL Cy Young contender in 2022.  Manoah is 7-1 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He is 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore.

Kyle Bradish is 1-3 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Orioles.  Giving up the home run has been a problem for Bradish as he has already allowed 10 homers in 37 2/3 innings this season.  That's bad news for him going up against this hot, powerful Toronto lineup tonight.

The Blue Jays are 24-7 in Manoah's 31 starts over the past two seasons and outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per game in those 31 games.  The Orioles are 25-70 in their last 95 road games.  Toronto is 45-19 in the last 64 meetings.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -113

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after dropping the first two games of this series to the Minnesota Twins. Look for them to avoid the sweep and grab a win in Game 3 due to their big advantage on the mound.

Jeffrey Springs is 1-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Rays. He has easily been one of their best starters, allowing just 8 earned runs and 7 walks in 34 innings with 34 K's.

It has been a disastrous start to the season for Minnesota's Cole Sands. He is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.477 WHIP in two starts, allowing 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 19 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.

The Rays are 40-19 in their last 59 games during Game 3 of a series. Tampa Bay is 92-44 in its last 136 games as a favorite. The Twins are 1-7 in their last eight games following a win. Bet the Rays Sunday.

25* NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Celtics UNDER 214.5

Usually as a playoff series goes on the oddsmakers set the totals lower and lower.  Teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense and low scoring games.  But that hasn't been the case in this series, and thus there's a ton of value on the UNDER 214.5 in Game 4.

The Game 1 total closed 214.5, the Game 2 total closed 213.5 and the Game 3 total closed 214.  So they have been pretty consistent with setting these totals.  They haven't had to lower them because two of the first three games went over the total.  But I have a lot of reasons to believe Game 4 will go UNDER this number.

This series has been played at a very slow pace, and this is likely going to be the slowest-paced game of them all thus far.  The Warriors and Celtics cannot keep shooting this well from 3-point range.  The Celtics are 49-of-113 (43.4%) through three games, while the Warriors are 49-of-122 (40.2%) for the series.

I cashed the Celtics in Games 1 and 3 and the UNDER in Game 2.  I am now 12-0 my last 12 playoff picks involving the Celtics.  I think Game 4 will be played similarly to Game 2 where it was a physical game and refs let them play.  So much is at stake here with the series basically on the line, so this one will be played close to the vest.  The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and starting to hit up to their potential.  Amazingly, they have scored at least 6 runs in 10 of their 11 victories.  They should stay hot at the plate against the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of this series Friday.

Jose Berrios is 4-2 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He has owned the Tigers, going 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA in his last eight starts against them, allowing 18 earned runs in 51 innings.

He'll be opposed by Elvin Rodriquez, who is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in three starts this season.  Rodriquez has already allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 13 1/3 innings.  He stands little chance of slowing down this hot Toronto lineup.

The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last eight road games.  Toronto is 51-23 in its last 74 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees are 8-1 in their last nine games overall to improve to 41-16 on the season.  They take on the lowly Chicago Cubs, who are 23-33 and in rebuilding mode.  The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound tonight that will have them winning by two runs or more.

Luis Severino is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in six home starts.  The Yankees have gone 8-2 in Severino's 10 starts this season with seven wins by two runs or more.

Wade Miley will be making just his 4th start of the season.  This will be his toughest test by far as he has had the luxury of facing the Diamondbacks, Pirates and Padres.  Miley has never beaten the Yankees, going 0-4 with a 5.98 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in 11 career starts against them.

The Yankees are 35-8 in their last 43 home games vs. NL Central opponents and winning by 2.4 runs per game.  New York is 22-3 vs. good fielding teams averaging 0.6 or fewer errors per game this season and winning by 2.3 runs per game.  The Yankees are 46-19 in their last 65 home games.  Take the Yankees on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-120)

The New York Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight games overall to improve to 40-16 on the season.  They are taking on a Minnesota Twins team that is dealing with a ton of injuries right now, while the Yankees are almost fully healthy.

I'll back the Yankees on the Run Line today due to their massive advantage on the mound.  Gerrit Cole is 5-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.943 WHIP In 11 starts this season.  Cole has never lost to the Twins, going 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing just 2 earned runs in 19 innings.

Dylan Bundy is 3-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Bundy is 2-6 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Yankees.  He is no match for Cole and this potent New York lineup tonight.

New York is 21-3 vs. good fielding teams that average 0.6 or fewer errors per game this season and winning by 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Yankees are 70-23 in their last 93 meetings with the Twins.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Warriors/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors got away with murder in Game 2.  That's the reason they won that game as the officials simply let them play.  They won't get away with murder in Game 3 in Boston, and thus the Celtics are the better team and will fire back after getting embarrassed.

Boston is 7-0 ATS after scoring 90 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Celtics are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  They are winning by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  

The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  They have been resilient all season, especially in the playoffs.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Boston is 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-105)

The New York Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven games overall while scoring 6.9 runs per game in the process.  They should put it on the Minnesota Twins again today due to their big advantage on the mound.

Nestor Cortes has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  He is 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in 10 starts with the Yankees going 8-2 in those 10 starts with six wins by two runs or more.  He'll be up against a banged-up Twins lineup that has gone 2-5 in their last seven games overall while scoring 4 runs or fewer in all five losses.

Chris Archer hasn't been good in years.  He is 0-2 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in five home starts.  Archer has allowed at least 3 earned runs in seven of his last nine starts against the Yankees.

Archer's teams are 2-10 in his last 12 starts against New York with seven losses by two runs or more.  The Yankees are 21-2 vs. good fielding teams averaging 0.6 or fewer errors per game this season and winning by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Guardians -150

The Cleveland Guardians have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall to get to 25-26 on the season.  They will be highly motivated to get to .500 with another win tonight, and I like their chances due to their big advantage on the mound.

Ace Shane Bieber gets the ball for the Guardians Wednesday.  Bieber is 3-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start against the Rangers.

Dane Dunning is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 11 starts for the Rangers, including 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in five road starts.  Texas has gone 0-5 in his five road starts.  Dunning is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in two career starts against Cleveland, allowing 8 earned runs in 7 innings.

The Rangers are 0-12 in Dunning's last 12 road starts int he first half of the season.  The Guardians are 13-1 in Bieber's last 14 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.  Take the Guardians Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+100)

The Colorado Rockies are really struggling right now in going 7-20 in their last 27 games overall with 15 losses by 2 runs or more.  I don't see them staying within two runs of the San Francisco Giants today due to their big disadvantage on the mound.

Carlos Rodon is one of the best starters in baseball and was a great get for the Giants this offseason.  Rodon has been at his best at home this season, going 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four home starts with a whopping 39 K's in 23 innings and only one homer allowed.

German Marquez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 1-5 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.723 WHIP in three road starts.  Marquez is 4-8 with a 7.19 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Giants as well.

Marquez went 0-4 with a 13.82 ERA in four starts against the Giants last season, allowing 22 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.  Colorado is 1-11 vs. a starting pitcher that averages 5 K's or more per start this season and losing by 2.1 runs per game int his spot.  The Rockies are 0-8 in their last eight games following an off day.  San Francisco is 22-6 in the last 28 meetings.  Roll with the Giants on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-125)

The Toronto Blue Jays are finally starting to live up to their massive potential at the plate after a slow first couple months.  They had too much talent to be held down for long, and once the weather warmed up, so did they.  The Blue Jays have now scored at least 6 runs in 10 of their last 12 games while going 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.

They should stay hot at the plate against Brad Keller, who is 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 10 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts.  Keller won't get much run support considering the Royals are 1-7 in their last eight games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in six of those seven losses.

It won't get any easier for the Royals today facing arguably the best starter in all of baseball in Alek Manoah.  He is 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Blue Jays.  He pitched 7 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory over the Royals in his lone career start against them last season.  Keller is 2-2 with a 5.73 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.

The Blue Jays are 23-7 in Manoah's 30 career starts.  Kansas City is 2-15 vs. a starting pitcher that allows 0.5 or fewer homers per start this season and losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Rangers/Guardians Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland -108

The Cleveland Guardians will be motivated to get to .500 on the season as they sit at 24-25 after going 5-1 in their last six games overall.  They should be bigger favorites over the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of this double-header today due to their advantage on the mound.

Cal Quantrill is one of the most underrated starters in the league.  He is 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four home starts.  He has only allowed 3 homers in 53 2/3 innings this season.

He'll be opposed by Jon Gray, who is 1-2 with a 4.83 ERA in eight starts this season.  Gray has been at his worst away from home, going 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in six road starts.

Texas is 11-44 in its last 55 road games after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span.  Cleveland is 10-2 in home games vs. AL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse this season.  The Rangers are 27-61 in their last 88 road games.  The Guardians are 42-17 in their last 59 games as home favorites.  Bet the Guardians in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Royals OVER 9.5

The Toronto Blue Jays are finally starting to hit like they are capable of now that we are two months into the season.  The OVER is 11-1 in Blue Jays last 12 games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in 11 of those 12 games.   Toronto has scored at least 6 runs in nine of its last 11 games as well.

The OVER is 12-4 in Royals last 16 games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 10 or more runs in 13 of those 16 games.  We only need 10 runs to cash this OVER, and I like out chances with the forecast calling for temps in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center at Kauffman Stadium today.

Ross Stripling is 0-1 with a 4.29 ERA in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.87 ERA in two road starts.  He'll be making his first start back from the IL since May 7th.  Daniel Lynch is 2-4 with a 4.81 ERA in nine starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in his last three.

Toronto is 10-0 OVER in road games vs. a starting pitcher that gives up 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season.  The OVER is 10-2 in Royals last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +112

The Los Angeles Angels just lost their 11th consecutive game in heartbreaking fashion on Sunday.  They blew a 6-2 lead in the 8th to the Phillies.  They have now scored 2 runs or fewer in five of their last six games overall.  This team is injured and broken right now and should not be favored over Boston in Game 1 of this series.

The Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They are 13-5 in their last 18 games overall and have scored at least 5 runs in all 13 victories, so they are really clicking offensively right now.  They should get to Noah Syndergaard, who is 1-2 with an 8.18 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts.

Michael Wacha has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in eight starts.  One of those starts came against the Angels on May 3rd as he pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings of a 4-0 victory to improve to 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles.

The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last eight games vs. AL West opponents.  Roll with the Red Sox Monday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors played in a shootout in Game 1 with the Celtics winning 120-108 behind a massive 4th quarter.  Game 1's in the playoffs tend to be higher scoring because teams aren't familiar with one another yet.  But the longer the series goes, the more familiar they become and the more it favors the UNDER.

These teams have had two days in between games to game plan after seeing what happened in Game 1.  Both teams played poor defense and lost open shooters with easily correctible mistakes.  There will be fewer defensive mistakes in Game 2, and as a result there's no way both teams shoot as well as they did in Game 1.

The Celtics shot a ridiculous 21-of-41 (51.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  The Warriors were 19-of-45 (42.2%) in Game 1.  Neither team is going to shoot as well again, especially the Celtics.  It was actually played at a pretty slow pace, and that slow pace will help us cash this UNDER in Game 2.

These are the top two teams in defensive efficiency this season with the Warriors 1st and the Celtics 2nd, so it's no surprise they made the NBA Finals.  Boston is 11-3 UNDER when playing with two days' rest this season.  Golden State is 7-0 UNDER in home games when playing on two days' rest this season.  The UNDER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, including 7-1 in the last eight meetings at Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Cardinals/Cubs ESPN No-Brainer on St. Louis -127

The St. Louis Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound over the Chicago Cubs tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.  They are crushing left-handed pitching, scoring 5.5 runs per game against southpaws and get to face one tonight.

Lefty Justin Steele has been atrocious for the Cubs this season.  He is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in 10 starts while averaging just 4.0 innings per start.  Steele has faced the Cardinals once before, allowing 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of an 8-5 loss last season.

Adam Wainwright went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA last season and has been even better thus far in 2022.  Wainwright is 5-4 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He is 1-0 with a 1.27 ERA in his last three starts against the Cubs as well, allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings.

The Cardinals are 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. left-handed starters.  St. Louis is 25-8 in its last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cardinals are 7-2 in their last nine games at Wrigley Field.  The Cubs are 19-43 in their last 62 home games.  Take the Cardinals Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +141

The Colorado Rockies will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost the first three games of this series to the Atlanta Braves, including the last two in extra innings.  They desperately want to avoid the sweep with a win in Game 4, and I like their chances considering they have lost more than three in a row only twice all season.

Colorado starter Ryan Feltner has been impressive this season.  He is 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in three starts while allowing just 7 earned runs and 19 base runners with 20 K's in 17 innings.  He held the Marlins to one run in 7 innings in his lone home start this season in a 7-1 victory.

Charlie Morton is way past his prime and it's starting to show.  The long road to the World Series last season has taken its toll on him this season.  Morton is 3-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in 10 starts in 2022, including 1-3 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.671 WHIP in five road starts.

Atlanta is 0-8 after allowing 3 runs or less in two consecutive games this season.  It is losing by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 36-15 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Colorado is 30-14 in the last 44 meetings.  Roll with the Rockies Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Rockies OVER 11.5

Coors Field is already the most hitter-friendly park in baseball.  But when the weather cooperates, it's even more potent.  That will be the case Saturday with temperatures in the 80's with winds blowing out to center as well.  This should be a slug fest similar to the 13-6 win by the Braves in Game 1 of this series.

Spencer Strider made his first start of the season at Arizona on May 30th and it was an ugly one.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the light-hitting Diamondbacks.  This will be a much stiffer test for him at Coors Field, and the Rockies should get into this Atlanta bullpen early.

It has been ugly all season for Kyle Freeland, especially at home.  He is 1-5 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Rockies.  That includes 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in six starts at Coors Field.  Freeland is 1-2 with a 5.590 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in five career starts against Atlanta as well.

Atlanta is scoring 6.1 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  It's no surprise that the OVER is 14-4 in Braves' 18 games against left-handed starters this season, and 35-16-2 in Braves last 53 games vs. left-handed starters overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in Braves last seven games vs. a starter with a 1.30 WHIP or higher.  The OVER is 20-9 in Rockies last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -113

The Boston Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in all 11 victories, so they are starting to rake.  The A's are 1-7 in their last eight games overall and have been held to two runs or fewer in four of the losses.

Nick Pivetta is 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Red Sox.  But he has been a different pitcher over the last month, going 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 5 earned runs in 34 innings.  Pivetta fired 7 shutout innings in a 1-0 victory over the A's in his lone career start against them last season.

Paul Blackburn is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to a surprisingly good start this season.  But he came back down to reality in his last start, allowing 4 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings to the Astros.  Note that Blackburn is 11-12 with a 4.73 ERA in six seasons in the big leagues, so his start this season has been an aberration.

Oakland is 7-22 at home this season with almost zero home-field advantage.  The A's are 1-12 against an AL starting pitcher with a 1.200 WHIP or better this season.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Twins/Blue Jays OVER 9

The Toronto Blue Jays are finally starting to hit like they are capable of now that we are two months into the season.  The OVER is 9-1 in Blue Jays last 10 games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in nine of those 10 games.  The books have set this total way too low today against the Minnesota Twins, who also have a potent lineup.

Dylan Bundy is 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Twins and averaging just 5.0 innings per start.  Bundy has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in five starts away from home.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bundy's last eight starts against the Blue Jays with combined scores of 10 runs or more in seven of those.  He'll be opposed by Jose Berrios, who has been a big disappointment for the Blue Jays this season going 3-2 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.510 WHIP in 10 starts while averaging just 5.0 innings per start.

The OVER is 38-17-5 in Twins last 60 games as road underdogs.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston Red Sox -154

The Boston Red Sox have a big advantage on the mound today that should lead them to an easy victory over the Oakland A's.  The Red Sox are 10-5 in their last 15 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in all 10 victories, so they are starting to rake.  The A's are 1-6 in their last seven games overall and have been held to one run or fewer in three of the losses.

Nathan Eovaldi is 2-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 1-0 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in five starts away from home.  Eovaldi is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts against the A's as well.

James Kaprielian is 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in six starts this season for the A's.  He has been at his worst at home, going 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.544 WHIP in three home starts this season.

Oakland is 7-21 at home this season with almost zero home-field advantage.  The A's are 1-11 against an AL starting pitcher with a 1.200 WHIP or better this season.  Take the Red Sox Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -140

Cleveland is 4-1 in its last five games overall and has scored a combined 27 runs in the four victories.  The Guardians had yesterday off while the Orioles went to extra innings against the Mariners Thursday, so they are the fresher team.

The Guardians have a big advantage on the mound behind ace Shane Bieber, who is 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in six road starts.  Bieber is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.471 WHIP in two career starts against the Orioles while pitching 17 shutout innings with only 8 base runners allowed and 26 K's.

Bruce Zimmerman is 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 10 starts for the Orioles this season, including 0-1 with an 8.81 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three.  The Guardians are scoring 5.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, while the Orioles are only scoring 3.7 runs per game against right-handed starters.

The Guardians are 12-1 in Bieber's last 13 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.  Cleveland is 19-2 in its last 21 road games following three consecutive wins by 4 runs or more.  Bet the Guardians Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -110

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a huge letdown spot after shockingly sweeping the Dodgers in Los Angeles last series.  I expect that letdown to occur in Game 1 today against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are one of the most underrated teams in baseball.

Merrill Kelly is the better starter in this matchup with J.T. Brubaker.  Kelly is 3-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 10 starts this season while allowing only 3 homers in 54 innings.  Brubaker is 0-4 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 10 starts for the Pirates and averaging just 4.8 innings per start.

Pittsburgh is 6-23 in its last 29 games following two or more consecutive wins.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 8-30 in their last 38 games vs. a starting pitcher that allows 0.5 or fewer homers per start.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Friday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Golden State Warriors have been off since May 26th.  That's a full week off and sometimes rest can be a bad thing.  I think that will be the case for the Warriors, who will be rusty now after building up a bunch of momentum in beating the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks.

I think the Warriors have had an easy path to the NBA Finals.  They avoided the Suns, played two banged up teams in the Nuggets and Grizzlies, and played a Mavericks team that had no answer for Stephen Curry.  The Celtics have the answer in defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, plus guys like Jaylon Brown can switch on him when Smart is out of the game.

I think the Celtics got the perfect amount of rest they needed.  They had just three days off in between games to let both Smart and Robert Williams heal.  The Celtics have earned their way into the NBA Finals by beating Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the Nets, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the top seed in the Miami Heat.  They won Game 7's each of the last two series and appear to be a team of destiny.  They should carry over that momentum into Game 1 today.

The Celtics are the only NBA team with a winning record against the Warriors during this dynasty run.  Boston is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Golden State.  The Celtics are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, including 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Golden State.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -101

The St. Louis Cardinals are rolling right now in going 9-3 in their last 12 games overall.  They should not be basically even money against the Chicago Cubs today, who are 21-29 on the season, including 9-17 at home.

Matthew Liberatore is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in two starts this season for the Cardinals.  The Cubs are scoring just 3.9 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

The Cubs are getting too much respect today after winning their last two games over the Brewers by a single run.  They are also getting respect due to Keegan Thompson and his 1.93 ERA in three starts, but it has come in such limited action that it cannot be trusted.  The Cardinals will be his toughest test to date as they are scoring 4.7 runs per game and have one of the best lineups in the National League.

The Cardinals are 24-8 in their last 32 road games with a money line of +100 to -150.  They have been dominant on the road over the past couple seasons.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

15* Padres/Brewers NL ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -108

The Milwaukee Brewers will be highly motivated for a victory today after dropping two straight one-run games to the Chicago Cubs to end an 11-game road trip.  Now they are back home where they are 14-6 this season and clearly have the advantage on the mound in this one.

They take on a San Diego Padres team that is just 2-6 in their last eight games overall and scruggling to score runs.  The Padres has been held to 4 runs or fewer in eight consecutive games.  It won't get any easier for them against Adrian Houser.

Houser is 2-2 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in four home starts this season.  He has owned the Padres with a 2.18 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Sean Manaea, who is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA this season.

Milwaukee is 19-2 in its last 21 games vs. terrible power teams that average 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  Roll with the Brewers Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday after dropping the first two games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates as -330 and -335 favorites.  They will avoid the sweep today and win by two runs or more in the process, so we'll back them on the Run Line.

Jose Quintana is getting too much respect from the books after a solid start this season out of nowhere.  This guy is way past his prime and won't be able to continue these numbers.  Mitch White is better than he has shown thus far and the Dodgers have won both of his starts this season over the Diamondbacks 14-1 and the Phillies 7-4.

Pittsburgh is 5-23 in its last 28 games following two or more consecutive wins and losing by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 43-12 in its last 55 home games, which just shows how rare those two losses the past two days were.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -116

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory today after dropping the first two games of this series to the Texas Rangers.  They should win this one going away due to their advantage on the mound.

Jeffrey Springs has posted a 2.35 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing only 6 earned runs and 20 base runners in 20 innings.  He'll be opposed by Jon Gray, who is 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA in seven starts this season for the Rangers.

Tampa Bay is 13-2 in its last 15 games following two straight games without a homer.  The Rays are 54-23 in their last 77 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Rays Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-140)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a shocking loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates as -330 favorites yesterday.  It was a rare loss for the Dodgers, who are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall.  Look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates today, so instead of laying the -320 on the money line, we'll take this huge discount and back them at -140 on the run line.

Julio Urias is one of the best starters in baseball.  He has posted a 2.49 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Urias has posted a 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three career starts against the Pirates as well.

He'll be opposed by Mitch Keller, who is one of the worst starters in baseball and still in search of his first victory.  Keller is 0-5 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has faced the Dodgers once in his career, allowing 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings of a 6-3 defeat opposite Urias.

The Pirates are 2-15 in Keller's last 17 starts following a win and losing by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  The Dodgers are 69-19 in their last 88 games as a favorite of -200 or more and winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Pittsburgh is 15-42 in its last 57 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Mets OVER 9

The OVER is 7-0 in Mets last seven games overall as they have combined with their opponents for 9 or more runs in all seven games.  They are scoring 8.9 runs per game during this stretch behind one of the best lineups in the National League.

Pitching has been the problem for the Nationals.  They still have a pretty good lineup and are scoring 6.6 runs per game in their last five games overall with the OVER going 4-1 during this stretch.  Temps will be in the 90's tonight at Cici Field so the ball should be flying out.

The Mets will feast on Patrick Corbin, who is 1-7 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.660 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  The Nationals should have some success off Trevor Williams, who is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in three starts this season.  Washington is scoring 5.0 runs per game on the road this season.

Washington is 12-2 OVER in road games vs. right-handed starters this season.  The OVER is 8-0 in Mets last eight games when its opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Angels/Yankees OVER 8.5

It's going to be in the 90's with winds blowing out to center at Yankee Stadium tonight.  These are two of the best lineups in baseball, and the ball will be flying out of the part tonight.  I'll gladly side with the OVER 8.5 in this contest as a result.

The Angels are scoring 4.8 runs per game overall, 5.0 runs per game on the road and 5.3 runs per game against left-handed starters.  They should get to Jordan Montgomery, who is getting too much respect for the numbers he has posted thus far.

It has been a good comeback story for Noah Syndergaard of the Mets, but he is also getting too much respect for the numbers he has posted to this point.  This will be his toughest test of the season to date after facing a pretty easy schedule of opponents thus far.

This Angels bullpen has been a disaster, and the Yankees are without Aroldis Chapman.  The OVER is 6-0 in Yankees last six during Game 1 of a series.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Mets OVER 8.5

The OVER is 6-0 in Mets last six games overall as they have combined with their opponents for 9 or more runs in all six games.  They are scoring 8.2 runs per game during this stretch behind one of the best lineups in the National League.

Pitching has been the problem for the Nationals.  They still have a pretty good lineup and are scoring 7.0 runs per game in their last four games overall, three of which have gone OVER the total.  These teams should combine for 9 or more runs easily tonight considering there will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to center to help aid this OVER.

Erick Fedde is 0-2 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in nine career starts against the Mets with the OVER going 6-3 in those nine starts.  David Peterson is getting a little too much respect for the numbers he has posted in limited action this season.  He has made just four starts.

The Nationals are hitting .286 and scoring 5.0 runs per game on the road this season.  The Mets are hitting .268 and scoring 5.3 runs per game against right-handed starters.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston ML -140

I have gone a perfect 6-0 in this series picking the winning side in all six games.  I am confident Boston is the better team and will win this series, but I'm not willing to lay the current -2.5 or -3.  I will lay the -140 on the Money Line instead, which is something I rarely do but it's warranted here in a game that could come down to the wire.

Give Miami credit for its valiant effort in Game 6 and I had the Heat +9, but I didn't expect them to win outright.  Jimmy Butler refused to lose and scored 47 points after looking terrible the previous two games.  He simply gutted them to a victory.  But that effort will have taken a lot out of Butler, and the Heat are just 6-8 SU & 6-8 ATS after Butler scores 30 points this season.  They are also 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS without Tyler Herro this season.  Their injury report looks a lot worse than Boston's coming into Game 7.

I trust Boston to win this game because of what they have shown in the playoffs thus far.  They swept the Nets, then beat the defending champion Bucks in seven games.  It was the way they won that series that gives me confidence they will come up clutch in Game 7 tonight.  The Celtics blew a double-digit lead at home against the Bucks in Game 5 and everyone left them for dead.  Instead, they went into Milwaukee and won Game 6 108-95 and then won Game 7 at home 109-81.  They are ready for this moment.

The Celtics have had no problems winning on the road in the playoffs, going 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in playoff road games.  Boston is now 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Celtics are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics on the Money Line in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Phillies/Mets ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

Both the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are clicking offensively right now.  The OVER is 5-2 in Phillies last seven games overall with combined scores of 10 runs or more in five of those seven games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Mets last five games overall with combined scores of 10 runs or more in all five.

These are two decent starters but both are getting too much respect with a total of just 7.5 runs tonight.  Zack Wheeler has been brutal on the road, going 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in three starts away from home.  Chris Bassitt is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA in five home starts this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in Phillies last 10 road games.  The OVER is 7-0-1 in Phillies last eight games as road underdogs.  These teams combined for 14 runs in Game 1 and 10 runs in Game 2.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -125

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Angeles today.  They will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping each of the first three games of this series to the Toronto Blue Jays, including the last two by a single run.  I have no doubt they will avoid the sweep and take Game 4 tonight due to their advantage on the mound and motivation.

Patrick Sandoval has been one of the best starters in the American League this season.  He is 3-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four home starts.

Jose Berrios has been a big disappointment for the Blue Jays.  He is 3-2 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in five road starts.  Berrios does not enjoy facing the Angels, going 2-4 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six career starts against them.

The Angels are 7-1 in their last eight games after losing the first three games of a series.  Los Angeles is 6-0 in its last six Sunday games.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -116

The Texas Rangers are highly motivated to get to .500 on the season.  They sit at 22-23 now after winning each of their last four games while scoring a combined 30 runs in the process.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate today and to sweep the Oakland A's thanks to their advantage on the mound.

Dane Dunning has been solid for the Rangers this season with a 4.32 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in nine starts.  Dunning has owned the A's, posting a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against them while allowing just 2 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings.

James Kaprielian is still in search of his first victory this season.  He is 0-2 with a 5.48 ERA in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.37 ERA in two home starts.  Kaprielian is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Rangers, allowing 7 earned runs in 9 innings.

Oakland is 0-10 when revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 8 runs or more over the last two seasons.  The A's are 1-11 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 1.300 WHIP or better this season.  Roll with the Rangers Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +110

The Seattle Mariners have the advantage on the mound tonight over the Houston Astros.  They should not be underdogs because of it.

Logan Gilbert is 4-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in nine starts this season and living up to his massive potential as a top prospect.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Astros.

Jose Urquidy is 4-1 in spite of a 4.24 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He has been at his worst on the road, posting a 6.55 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in five starts away from home.  Urquidy is 1-1 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four career starts against Seattle.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Mariners on April 17th earlier this season.  Roll with the Mariners Saturday.

20* Blue Jays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -107

The Los Angeles Angels will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after dropping the first two games of this series to the Toronto Blue Jays.  Look for them to get back in the win column in Game 3 due to their advantage on the mound.

Michael Lorenzen is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Angels.  He has been at his best at home, going 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in four home starts.

He'll be opposed by Yusei Kikuchi, who is having a solid season at 2-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in eight starts.  But he has been at his worst on the road, going 0-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four road starts.

What really stood out here is that Kikuchi has been terrible against Los Angeles dating back to his time with Seattle.  Indeed, Kikuchi is 1-4 with a 10.62 ERA and 2.259 WHIP in seven career starts against the Angels, and his teams are 1-6 in those seven starts.  Los Angeles is scoring 5.3 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  Take the Angels Saturday.

20* Cubs/White Sox Interleague No-Brainer on Chicago White Sox -136

We are getting the Chicago White Sox at a great value today as a short home favorite over the lowly Chicago Cubs.  They should be much bigger favorites, but the Cubs are getting respect because Keegan Thompson has put up solid numbers in his two starts this season against the Pirates and Padres.  This will be his toughest test yet.

I like what I've seen from Johnny Cueto in his two starts for the White Sox.  He has pitched 12 shutout innings in two road starts against the Yankees and Royals.  Holding the Yankees scoreless in 6 innings at Yankee Stadium is no small feat.  Thompson faced the White Sox last season and allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, in 2 innings of a 13-17 defeat.

The Cubs are 12-41 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a 1.15 WHIP or less.  The White Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  The White Sox are 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -115

Alek Manoah was one of the best starters in baseball last season as a rookie.  He has picked up where he left off this season, going 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in eight starts.  The Blue Jays should be much bigger favorites over the Los Angeles Angels with Manoah on the mound tonight.

Rookie Chase Silseth goes for the Angels.  He will be making his third start of the season here.  He pitched well in his first start against Oakland, pitching 6 shutout innings.  But he faced Oakland again in his next start and allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings.  The A's have one of the worst lineups in all of baseball, and this will be a big step up in class against the Blue Jays for Silseth tonight.  Roll with the Blue Jays Friday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +9

I am a perfect 5-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3, the Celtics in Game 4 and the Celtics in Game 5.  After cashing in the Celtics the past two games, I'm going back with the Heat in Game 6 tonight.

This line has simply gotten out of control.  The Celtics go from being 5 and 6.5-point home favorites in Games 3 and 4 to whopping 9-point favorites in Game 6.  That is too big of an adjustment, and it's an overreaction from the Celtics winning the last two games in blowouts.

The Heat aren't going to only score 80 and 82 points again while shooting 31.9% and 33.3% from the field, respectively.  They will shoot it better, especially from 3-point range where they have gone a combined 15-of-79 (19%) the past two games.  This Miami team has too much pride to go home without a fight as they are a bunch of dogs.  And the injury report came back better than expected for them as they should have almost everyone available tonight.

Miami is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +130

I love the value we are getting on the St. Louis Cardinals today as home underdogs.  They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing Game 1 of this series to the hated Brewers, who are 4.5 games ahead of them in the NL Central standings.

What stood out to me was how poorly Brandon Woodruff has pitched on the road this season.  He is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.059 WHIP in four road starts.  Those four starts came against four of the worst lineups in baseball in the Marlins, Reds, Pirates and Cubs.

Conversely, St. Louis starter Dakota Hudson has been dynamite at home.  He is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in three home starts this season.  Hudson pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings in his last home start against the Brewers.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money.  Everyone counted them out when they were down 3-0 in this series.  They came out relaxed in Game 4 and won 119-109 over Golden State.  Now they will come out relaxed in Game 5 and give the Warriors a run for their money.

Dallas has two very poor shooting games in this series which explains two of their losses.  They had the Warriors by the balls in Game 2 but blew a 14-point halftime lead.  They are much better shooting team than they have shown in this series, and they finally knocked some down in a 20-of-43 (46.5%) performance from 3 in Game 4.

Remember, the Mavericks were down 3-2 to Phoenix and everyone counted them out last series.  They proceeded to crush the Suns at home by 27 in Game 6 and by 30 on the road in Game 7.  They really don't feel like they are out of this series.  I don't think the Warriors were in it mentally in Game 4 with the shooting in Texas and Steve Kerr having such a big reaction to it.  I question their head space in Game 5 as well.  They struggled to close out he Grizzlies last series, and it won't be easy closing out this feisty Mavs team, either.

There's value with the Mavericks when you consider they were 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 and 6-point road underdogs in Game 2, and now they are 7 or 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 5.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -115

For starters, I like the fact that the St. Louis Cardinals had yesterday off and were able to stay home after their two-game series with Toronto.  They will be the much fresher team over the Brewers, who played Wednesday in San Diego and had the long flight to St. Louis overnight.

Adam Wainwright just continues getting the job done for the Cardinals.  He went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  Wainwright has picked up where he left off, going 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball.

Eric Lauer is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after a tremendous start this season that has come out of nowhere.  Lauer will meet his match against the Cardinals tonight.  He is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.917 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis, allowing 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 innings.

The Cardinals are scoring 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  They are 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. left-handed starters.  St. Louis is 16-3 in Wainwright's last 19 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rockies/Nationals OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 70's with winds blowout out to center to help aid us in cashing this OVER as well.

These are two of the worst starters in baseball going tonight.  German Marquez is 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.591 WHIP in eight starts this season and has actually been worse on the road than he has been at home.  Marquez is 2-3 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.719 WHIP in six career starts against Washington.

Patrick Corbin is 0-7 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Nationals.  Corbin has posted a 4.51 ERA and 1.427 WHIP in 25 career starts against Colorado.  He is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Rockies as well.

Colorado is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games following three or more consecutive road games.  The Rockies are 8-1 OVER vs. teams that draw three or fewer walks per game this season.  The OVER is 7-1 in Rockies last eight games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +152

The Boston Red Sox are playing up to their potential finally.  They have won six straight while scoring at least 5 runs in all six victories.  That includes their 16-3 victory over the White Sox yesterday as +150 underdogs.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate against Chicago tonight.

Rich Hill has held his own this season at 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in seven starts.  Hill has been at his best on the road, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in four starts away from home.  He won't have to face CF Luis Robert, who is out due to COVID.  He should give the Red Sox a chance to win here.

Lucas Giolito has posted great numbers this year at 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in six starts.  But he has done it against a very soft schedule with four of those starts coming against the Royals, Guardians, Cubs and Tigers.  Giolito has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP in four career starts against them.  Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -1.5

I'm 4-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3 and the Celtics in Game 4.  I am going to fade the Zig Zag theory here tonight and get back on the Celtics for a couple of different reasons, not the least of which is the obvious fact that the Celtics are the better team based on what we've seen so far.

The Celtics are two poor quarters away from sweeping the Heat in this series.  They have been dominant when Robert Williams has played, and he is expected to play tonight.  In fact, the Celtics could be at full strength tonight if Marcus Smart (questionable) plays.

The Heat are really banged up.  Jimmy Butler is going to play but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4, making just 3-of-14 shots without getting to the FT line once.  He can't be as aggressive as he normally is with the bum knee that forced him to sit the entire 2nd half of Game 3.  Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are all nursing injuries and questionable.  There's rumors the Heat could have some COVID issues as well.

The Celtics are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  They take control of this series with a win and cover in Game 5 tonight.  Bet with the Celtics Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Yankees OVER 7.5

The Orioles and Yankees have combined for 8 runs or more in six of their last seven meetings with the OVER going 6-1 in those seven games.  The OVER is 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in New York.  The OVER is 5-1 in Orioles last six games overall and they have scored 6 runs or more in five of those six games.

So the Orioles are going through their best stretch of offense of the season against two of the best pitching staffs in the league in the Rays and Yankees.  They should be able to contribute to the OVER, which is key when we already have one of the best offenses in the league in the Yankees scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  

Tyler Wells is 0-3 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in four starts this season.  JP Sears will be making his first career start for the Yankees tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall while scoring at least 4 runs in all nine victories.  They have opened this series by crushing the Nationals 10-1 in Game 1 and 9-4 in Game 2.  It should be more of the same Wednesday with their big advantage on the mound.

Julio Urias is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 3-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Urias has never lost to the Nationals, going 2-0 (4-0 money line) with a 3.05 ERA in four career starts against them.

Erick Fedde is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in four home starts.  The Nationals are just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall with all nine losses coming by 3 runs or more.

The Dodgers are 36-7 in their last 43 games vs. bad teams that win 38% or fewer of their games on the season and beating these teams by 3.3 runs per game.  Washington is 8-24 in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas PK

The Dallas Mavericks just haven't gotten anything in this series from players outside Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie.  This after they shot their way into the conference finals on the backs of Doncic and their role players hitting open 3's.  They haven't hit those 3's in this series with the exception of Game 2, which they controlled throughout before falling apart in the 4th quarter.

The Mavericks shot just 13-of-45 (28.9%) from 3 in Game 3 and just 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3 in Game 1.  They aren't going to continue shooting this poorly in Game 4 tonight.  Look for guys like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to start hitting more of their open looks in this one.  I think this is where it all comes together for the Mavericks as they show their pride for one game and avoid the sweep.

Conversely, I fully expect the Warriors to let down in Game 4 tonight knowing they all but have this series wrapped up.  We saw them let down last series against Memphis when they lost 95-134 as 4-point road favorites in Game 5 with a chance to clinch.

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Dallas is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox +150

The Boston Red Sox are playing up to their potential finally.  They have won five straight while scoring at least 5 runs in all five victories.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate against the Chicago White Sox tonight.

Dylan Cease has great stuff but is getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  He is 1-0 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts and has been a little wild.  Cease hates facing the Red Sox, going 0-0 with a 7.29 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Nick Pivetta has been dynamite in his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 22 innings.  Pivetta is 0-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox, one of which came on May 7th when he pitched 6 shutout innings with 8 K's.  Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Yankees OVER 7.5

Look for the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees to get their bats going today.  They combined for 10 runs yesterday and the books have set this total way too low tonight as just 7.5.  The weather looks solid and both Jordan Montgomery and Bruce Zimmerman are getting too much respect after solid starts to the season by each.

The Orioles and Yankees have combined for 8 runs or more in five of their last six meetings with the OVER going 5-1 in those six games.  The OVER is 35-16 in the last 51 meetings in New York.  The OVER is 4-1 in Orioles last five games overall and they have scored 6 runs or more in four of those five games.  The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies +109

The Colorado Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound to get the back on track today.  Freeland has posted a 0.82 ERA in his two road starts this season while allowing just one earned run in 11 innings.  He is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts against the Pirates, allowing just 3 earned runs in 16 innings.

Roansy Contreras will be making his first start of the season for the Pirates today and should not be favored over Freeland here.  Colorado recently got Kris Bryant back and is fully health in its lineup and should start raking again.

The Rockies are 11-2 (+10.3 Units) in Freeland's last 13 starts vs. a NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse.  Pittsburgh is 6-28 (-20 Units) in its last 34 games vs. a starting pitcher that allows 0.5 or fewer HR's/start.  Roll with the Rockies Tuesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -6.5

I'm 3-0 in this series.  I cashed in the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3.  I'm back on the Celtics in Game 4 and riding the Zig Zag Theory in this series because it's so evenly matched that it works.  The Zig Zag Theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.

The Celtics gave away Game 3 by committing 21 turnovers and the Heat capitalized, outscoring Boston 33-9 in points off turnovers.  Miami got off to such a strong start that they were able to hold on to a 26-point lead even though it was eventually cut to 1 late in the 4th.  Boston fell short, but they will respond in a big way like they have all season following a defeat.

The Heat won despite Jimmy Butler sitting out the entire 2nd half with knee inflammation.  I can't possibly imagine he's anywhere near 100% two days later after sitting out the most important 24 minutes of the season thus far.  He may play, but he won't be himself.  The Celtics could get back Robert Williams and are otherwise fully healthy for Game 4 tonight.

Boston is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals are raking right now.  They have scored 4 runs or more in six straight and eight of their last nine games overall.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate tonight, while the struggling Blue Jays stay cold.  Toronto has scored 3 runs or fewer in five straight games.

The Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound with Miles Mikolas, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Mikolas is 3-2 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in eight starts this season.

He'll be opposed by Jose Berrios, who is 3-2 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Berrios has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in four road starts this season.

The Cardinals are 25-9 in their last 34 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game.  They are coming off an 18-run outburst on Sunday.  Take the Cardinals Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +125

Wrong team favored here.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost five of their last six games coming in while scoring 4 runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games.  The Rockies have the better starter and the better lineup in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Chad Kuhl is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Rockies as he has been their best starter.  He will face his former team here in Pittsburgh for the first time and will be highly motivated to shut them down.

J.T. Brubaker is 0-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in three home starts.  There's no way he should be a -135 favorite over Kuhl and the Rockies tonight.

Pittsburgh allowed 18 runs to St. Louis yesterday and is 6-25 in its last 31 games after allowing 15 runs or more.  Kuhl is 9-4 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in night starts over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 4-18 (-14.6 Units) in Brubaker's last 22 starts vs. teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game.  Roll with the Rockies Monday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

I love the spot for the Mavericks Sunday.  Their season is on the line as they are down 0-2.  They didn't show up in Game 1, but they fought hard in Game 2 and showed they could play with the Warriors.  Golden State was just unconscious in the 2nd half and the Mavericks went cold.

Dallas has been much better at home than on the road in the playoffs as their role players have really stepped up to help out Luka Doncic.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games while winning those five games by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Dallas is 34-13 SU at home this season as well.

The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mavericks are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants -131

The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost three straight and the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres by a single run each.  They'll be motivated to avoid the sweep against their hated NL West rivals, and I expect them to get the job done.

Mackenzie Gore is getting too much respect for the Padres.  He has faced such an easy schedule which is why is numbers are so good.  Gore has faced the Reds (twice), Cubs, Guardians and Braves which are four of the worst offenses in all of baseball.  This will be his toughest test to date, especially against a Giants team that is scoring 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

Alex Wood continues to get it done at a high rate for the Giants, going 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA in seven starts this season.  And consider Wood has faced the much tougher competition.  He is 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Padres as well.

The Giants are 61-29 in their last 90 games as home favorites.  San Francisco is 4-1 in its last five games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Giants are 4-1 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Giants Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-109)

Death, taxes and the Tampa Bay Rays owning the Baltimore Orioles.  The Rays are 28-3 in the last 31 meetings with 22 wins by two runs or more.  It will be more of the same today with the Rays winning in a blowout due to their big advantage on the mound, at the plate and in the bullpen.

Corey Kluber is 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Kluber is 5-1 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Orioles.  He pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in an 8-0 victory over the Orioles in his lone start against them this season.

Spenser Watkins is 0-1 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in seven starts this season for Baltimore.  Watkins is 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in four career starts against the Tampa Bay.  He has lost three straight starts to the Rays by 4 runs or more while allowing 14 earned runs in 15 innings.  Take the Rays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-7 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Miami and Boston is definitely evenly matched.

I cashed in the Heat in Game 1 and came back with an easy winner on the Celtics in Game 2 in this series.  Now I'm back on Miami in Game 3.  This is way too big of an adjustment for the Celtics' 25-point blowout win in Game 2.  The Heat go from being 1-point favorites to 6.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point adjustment which is too big for home-court advantage.

Boston isn't going to shoot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range again, and Miami isn't going to shoot as poorly (10-of-34, 29.4%) from 3-point range as they did in Game 2.  The Heat have been an extremely resilient team all season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off that blowout defeat.

Miami is 16-5 ATS following an upset loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110)

The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Washington Nationals 7-0 yesterday to improve to 25-14 on the season while dropping the Nationals to 13-27.  It should be more of the same today with a blowout win in favor of the Brewers due to their big advantage on the mound.

Brandon Woodruff is one of the best pitchers in the game.  He is 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.660 WHIP in three home starts this season.  Woodruff has never lost to the Nationals, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.542 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Patrick Corbin is 0-6 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in eight starts this season.  The Nationals are 0-8 in Corbin's eight starts with seven of those eight losses coming by two runs or more.  Corbin is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Brewers as well.

The Nationals are 6-25 in Corbin's last 31 starts as an underdog and losing by 2.5 runs per game.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Saturday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -128

Kyle Wright has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  He is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in seven starts with a whopping 50 K's in 42 innings and only two homers allowed.  Wright is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Marlins, pitching 12 shutout innings with 18 K's to boot.

He'll be opposed by Elieser Hernandez, who is 2-3 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Hernandez has already allowed 10 homers in 33 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and three homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Braves for a 7.72 ERA as well.

Simply put, the Braves should be bigger favorites over the Marlins today considering their big advantage on the mound.  Atlanta is 23-9 in its last 32 games as a road favorite.  Miami is 3-10 in its last 13 vs. a right-handed starter.  The Braves are 65-31 in the last 96 meetings in Miami.  Atlanta is 47-21 in the last 68 meetings overall.  Roll with the Braves Saturday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-6 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

It was a tough spot for the Mavericks in Game 1 coming off their Game 7 win at Phoenix.  They were flat and nothing went right.  They shot 36% from the field and 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3-point range.  Meanwhile, the Warriors shot 56.1% from the field and won in a 112-87 blowout.

But this series will be much more competitive than Game 1 showed.  And now the Warriors go from 5.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 6.5-point favorites in Game 2, which is an overreaction and the wrong adjustment.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks, who went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Warriors during the regular season.

The Mavericks are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more this season.  Dallas is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -118

The Minnesota Twins are rolling right now after a slow start to get to 22-16 this season.  Their lineup is healthy outside of Miguel Sano and they are really raking.  The same cannot be said for the Royals, who are without their best hitter in Salvador Perez and also CF Michael A. Taylor.  SS Alberto Mondesi is out as well.

It's no wonder the Royals are struggling to score runs this season.  They are scoring just 3.6 runs per game overall and 2.7 runs per game at home.  It won't get any easier for them against Devin Smeltzer, who is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals.

The Twins are 7-0 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.  Minnesota is 9-1 in its last 10 vs. AL Central opponents.  Kansas City is 1-8 in its last nine games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Twins Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -130

The Los Angeles Dodgers just lost three out of four to the Philadelphia Phillies at home.  It's revenge time now.  The Dodgers lost as -215, -180 and -145 favorites.  Now we are getting them as a -130 favorite in the same pitching matchup where they were -180 favorites at home with Urias over Suarez.  Home-field advantage isn't worth this much.

Urias was rocked in that start, but it was an aberration.  He is one of the best starters in baseball and will be out for revenge as well.  Urias is 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Ranger Suarez, who is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.581 WHIP in four home starts this season.

I like the fact that the Dodgers had yesterday off while the Phillies completed their series with the Padres yesterday, so the Dodgers will be the fresher team.  The Phillies were without Bryce Harper yesterday and have scored just three runs total in their last thee games.  They could be without Harper and Jean Segura, who are both questionable, and will be without Didi Gregorius.  The Dodgers' lineup is fully healthy and arguably the best in baseball.

The Dodgers are 72-29 in their last 101 games overall.  Take the Dodgers Friday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 13-6 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Boston and Miami is definitely evenly matched.

These have been my two favorite teams to back in the playoffs because I have believed both are underrated.  They are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA as well.  I cashed in Miami in Game 1, but I'm going the other way with Boston in Game 2.

The Celtics were without both Al Horford and Marcus Smart in Game 1.  Well, Smart is back for Game 2 but they will still be without Horford.  I think they can pull the upset here.  Jimmy Butler went off in Game 1 and won't be nearly as efficient.  It's hard to expect the Heat to shoot 30-of-34 from the FT line again, too.  The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, plus Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are both banged up.

Boston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Boston is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -123

The Cleveland Guardians will bounce back from a 5-4 loss to the Cincinnati Reds in this interleague rivalry.  I like their chances with Cal Quantrill on the mound.  He has posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in six starts this season.

Quantrill will be opposed by Tyler Mahle, who is 2-4 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four road starts.  Mahle has never beaten the Guardians, going 0-2 (0-4 Money Line) with a 4.96 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in four career starts against them.  Take the Guardians Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +175

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value as nearly 2-to-1 underdogs to the New York Mets today.  The Cardinals are one of my favorite sleeper teams in baseball because they have a great lineup, a great bullpen and an underrated rotation that lacks big names.

Dakota Hudson is one of those underrated starters.  He is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA in seven starts this season and consistently lacks the respect he deserves from oddsmakers.  Hudson has won both of his career starts against the Mets.

Chris Bassitt is getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  He has been dominant on the road but vulnerable at home, going 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA in four home starts.  The Cardinals have the advantage of having already seen Bassitt once this season while the Mets have not seen Hudson yet.

The Cardinals are 19-9 in their last 28 games as underdogs.  The Mets are 0-4 in their last four games following a win.  St. Louis is 8-3 in its last 11 trips to New York.  Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on OVER 214.5

Game 1 in a playoff series is a great time to take the OVER.  Teams aren't familiar with one another yet and there tends to be a lot of defensive mistakes and turnovers on offense.  That tends to lead to easy, quick points.

I like the OVER in Game 1 of this series because the Warriors will control the tempo playing at home.  And the Warriors like to get up and down the floor, which is when they are at their best.  Only the Timberwolves and Grizzlies played at a faster tempo than the Warriors this postseason.

Two of the final three meetings in the regular season between these teams went well OVER this 214.5-point total.  They combined for 222 points at Golden State and 235 points at Dallas.  The one that stays under still saw 208 combined points and was due to a terrible shooting performance from the Warriors.

The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Warriors last 21 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +128

The Boston Red Sox are starting to play up to their potential.  They are 4-3 in their last seven games overall and have scored at least 6 runs in all four victories.  They should not be home underdogs to the Houston Astros tonight.

Nick Pivetta is coming off two straight dominant starts, limiting the Rangers and White Sox to just one earned run and nine base runners in 13 innings.  Pivetta has held the Astros to just three earned runs and nine base runners in 11 innings in his last two starts against them as well.

Louis Garcia is getting too much respect from the books tonight.  He has allowed 5 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Red Sox.  Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -1.5

The spot in Game 1 favors the Miami Heat.  They closed out the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 6 on the road, so they have had the last four days off to rest and recover.  Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics have only one day to rest after beating Milwaukee at home in Game 7 on Sunday.

The Heat have a huge home-court advantage as they are 35-12 SU at home this season, including 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  They have won those nine straight home games by an average of a whopping 17.6 points per game with seven victories by double-digits.

These teams met in a very meaningful game late in the season with home-court advantage on the line and the Heat pulled the 106-98 upset as 5-point road underdogs.  Both teams were pretty much at full strength for that game.  Miami should be the better team in Game 1 tonight given the rest advantage.

Miami is 9-1 ATS following an upset win as a road underdog this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +147

The Colorado Rockies have been the most profitable home team in baseball over the past couple seasons.  They have gone 60-41 (+23.8 Units) at home over the last two seasons and are consistently home underdogs.  The value is too good to pass up today against the San Francisco Giants.

That's especially the case when I actually give the advantage on the mound to the Rockies in this one.  Chad Kuhl has been their best starter, going 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in six starts, including 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in two starts at Coors Field.

Alex Cobb has been a bit of a disappointment in his first season with the Giants.  He is 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in five starts this season.  Only one of those starts came on the road when he allowed 3 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Mets.  Cobb allowed 3 homers in his lone career start at Coors Field.

Kuhl's teams are 12-8 (+10.3 Units) in his 20 starts over the last two seasons, including 9-3 (+10.5 Units) in his 12 night starts.  San Francisco is 2-8 after having won six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Roll with the Rockies Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-135)

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball this season.  They are 26-9 on the season and swinging the bats very well, scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games.  They have scored 38 runs in their last five games overall.

The Yankees will stay hot at the plate tonight against Baltimore's Spenser Watkins, who is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.576 WHIP in six starts this season.  Watkins has allowed 10 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

Jameson Taillon is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in six starts this season for the Yankees.  Taillon has posted a 3.54 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles as well.  He should shut down a Baltimore lineup that has scored 3 runs or fewer in six consecutive games.

Baltimore is 4-24 in its last 28 games vs. a team that wins more than 62% of their games and losing by 2.0 runs per game.  New York is 7-0 in its last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Yankees are 39-13 in the last 52 meetings and 26-9 in the last 35 meetings in Baltimore.  New York is 11-0 in Taillon's last 11 starts after he allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in two straight starts and winning by 4.2 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball this season.  They are 25-9 on the seasn and swinging the bats very well, scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last six games.  They just scored 32 runs in a four-game series with the White Sox over the weekend.

Now the Yankees will stay hot at the plate against the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of this series and win this game by two runs or more.  They will be up against Kyle Bradish, who is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts for the Orioles this season.

Luis Severino is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in six starts this season for the Yankees.  Severino owns the Orioles, going 5-1 with a 3.79 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  The Yankees are 5-0 in Severino's last five starts against Baltimore with all five wins by two runs or more.

Baltimore is 4-23 in its last 27 games vs. a team that wins more than 62% of their games and losing by 1.9 runs per game.  New York is 6-0 in its last six road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Yankees are 38-13 in the last 51 meetings and 25-9 in the last 34 meetings in Baltimore.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -6

Just take the home team in every game in this series and you win.  It has been that simple, and it's going to continue to be that simply Sunday with the Phoenix Suns winning in yet another blowout over the Dallas Mavericks at home in Game 7.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the six games in this series.  The Suns only won by 7 in Game 1 but were crushing the Mavericks in the 4th quarter before a meaningless comeback late.  They went on to win by 20 in Game 2 and by 30 in Game 5.  The Mavericks won by 9 in Game 3, by 10 in Game 4 and by 27 in Game 6.  The Suns will now have their revenge in blowout fashion and close out this series.

Phoenix is 11-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.  Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, including 10-3 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 7 Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -134

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be more motivated for a victory Sunday than at any other point this season thus far.  That's because they have shockingly lost four in a row as -185, -145, -215 and -180 favorites.  

That's why we are getting a good opportunity to 'buy low' on the Dodgers as only -134 favorites at home Sunday.  Keep in mind the Dodgers are 41-12 in their last 53 home games, so it's rare to get them this cheap at home.  Plus add in the motivation from trying to avoid the sweep against the Phillies here.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in the majors.  He is 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA in three road starts.  The Phillies are 1-6 (-6.7 units) in his seven starts this season and 16-23 (-15.1 units) in all of his starts over the past two seasons.

Philadelphia is 1-10 in Nola's last 11 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  The Phillies are losing by 3.3 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Dodgers Sunday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 208.5

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another and the more it favors defense and low-scoring games.  That's why it should be no surprise that UNDERS are 54-24 in the last 78 Game 7's in the NBA playoffs.

The Bucks have been the best UNDER team in these players.  The UNDER is 9-2 in their 11 games.  They are scoring just 104.7 points per game and allowing 100.5 points per game.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season and have been able to hold the Bucks in check.  They can guard Giannis better than any team in the NBA.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.