20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -141

The Colorado Rockies have returned home following a tough 1-4 road trip.  They got back on track with a 3-0 win over the Braves yesterday, and they are now 36-21 at home this season, hitting .301 and scoring 6.1 runs per game at Coors Field. The Braves are 1-6 in their last seven games overall.

Kyle Freeland has put up some impressive home numbers at hitter-friendly Coors Field this season.  He is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA in 11 home starts this year.  The Rockies are 20-13 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .280 and scoring 5.5 runs per game against them.

Lefty Sean Newcomb gets the ball for the Braves tonight.  He hasn't had much success this season, going 1-7 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 11 starts.  The Braves have gone 2-9 in his 11 starts this year.

Atlanta is 9-37 in road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last three seasons.  The Braves are 1-8 in their last nine road games.  Atlanta is 0-7 in Newcomb's last seven starts.  Colorado is 16-5 in its last 21 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Rockies are 4-0 in Freeland's last four starts, and 5-1 in his last six home starts.  Colorado is 11-0 in its last 11 home meetings with Atlanta.  Bet the Rockies Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs should have no problem winning by two runs or more tonight against the lowly Cincinnati Reds.  This is a Cubs team that will be taking the Reds seriously considering they are only one game ahead of the Cardinals and two ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Jose Quintana is clearly the better starter in this game.  He has gone 6-10 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 23 starts this season with 143 K's in 134 1/3 innings.  The Reds are awful against left-handed starters, going 7-22 against them this season while hitting .243 and scoring 3.9 runs per game.

Asher Wojciechowski is one of the many sub-par starters in the Reds' rotation.  He has gone 2-1 with a 6.11 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-0 with an 8.00 ERA in two road starts.

Quintana is 9-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

15* Seahawks/Chargers NFLX Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +2.5

No analysis for preseason

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -105

The Milwaukee Brewers should be much bigger home favorites today over the Cincinnati Reds.  But because they have struggled of late, they are undervalued right now.  The Brewers are still right in the thick of the NL Central race and the Reds are still in last place in the division.

Matt Garza is coming off a rough outing, but he had allowed two earned runs or fewer in his five previous starts.  Look for him to bounce back against the Reds here Sunday afternoon.  Garza has allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last two starts against Cincinnati.

Sal Romano doesn't deserve to be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers.  He is 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.663 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is only averaging 4.8 innings per start and figures to exit early in this one as well.

The Reds are 15-36 in their last 51 road games.  Cincinnati is 2-9 in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Reds are 1-4 in Romano's last five starts.  The Brewers are 9-1 in Garza's last 10 starts during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Brewers Sunday.

15* NFLX Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +3

No Analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -139

The Milwaukee Brewers are in must-win mode now after their brutal stretch since the All-Star Break.  They cannot afford to keep losing to teams like Cincinnati as they did last night.  Now they are back to being undervalued as short home favorites here thanks to going 0-6 in their last six games overall.

The Reds will give the ball to Scott Feldman, who is slated to come off the disabled list after missing time since July 17th.  Feldman is 7-7 with a 4.34 ERA in 19 starts this season, 3-4 with a 4.99 ERA in nine road starts, and 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in his last two starts.  He is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee as well.

Brent Suter has been the much better starter in limited action for the Brewers.  He has gone 2-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in eight starts, including 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in three home starts.

The Reds are 7-21 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .245 and scoring just 3.8 runs per game.  Cincinnati is 16-35 in its last 51 road games, and 23-54 in its last 77 games against left-handed starters overall.  Bet the Brewers Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+115)

The Milwaukee Brewers have now lost five straight games after getting swept by the Minnesota Twins last series.  But they are still just two games back of the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series at home against the Cincinnati Reds Friday.

The Brewers should have no problem winning by two runs or more thanks to their edge on the mound.  Jimmy Nelson has been their ace all season, going 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 23 starts.  Nelson is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his last three starts, so he has shown no signs of slowing down.  He's 5-3 with a 2.43 ERA at home this season, and 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA in his last five starts against Cincinnati, giving up just 8 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings.

Homer Bailey has been a mess since returning from injury.  He is now 3-6 with an 8.86 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Bailey gave up 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Cardinals.  He faced the Brewers back on June 29th, and he was blasted for 6 earned runs in 3 innings of a 3-11 loss.

The Reds are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  Cincinnati is 2-10 in Bailey's last 12 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 5-0 in Nelson's last five home starts.  Milwaukee is 11-4 in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Brewers are 5-1 in Nelson's last six starts vs. Cincinnati.  The Reds are 1-4 in Bailey's last five starts vs. Milwaukee.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Friday.

15* Bucs/Bengals NFLX No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +2

No Analysis for preseason.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Brewers -152

The Milwaukee Brewers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday after losing the first three games of this interleague rivalry against the Minnesota Twins.  They will be looking to avoid the sweep with a Game 4 victory.

The Brewers will send their hottest starter to the mound in Zach Davies, who is 2-1 with a 0.94 ERA in his last four starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 25 base runners in 28 2/3 innings.

Milwaukee is 13-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The Twins are 16-40 in their last 56 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record, including 5-26 in their last 31 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 15-5 in Davies' last 20 starts.  Milwaukee is 4-0 in its last four home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Brewers Thursday.

15* NFLX Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* Dodgers/DBacks NL West No-Brainer on Arizona +105

I cashed in the Diamondbacks as nice underdogs at home last night against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I'm going to back them again as home dogs here Wednesday.  This is a revenge series for them after getting swept in Los Angeles with three one-run losses to the Dodgers in their last series.

I would argue that the Diamondbacks have the edge on the mound with Zack Greinke, who is 13-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 22 starts, including a perfect 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in 12 home starts.  This guy has been a money-making machine at home throughout his career.

Alex Wood was due to cool off after a great start to the season.  He has done just that, going 2-1 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.698 WHIP in his last three starts.  Those came against the Braves (twice) and Giants, so he has been struggling against some poor lineups.  Now he's up against a DBacks team that is 37-18 at home, hitting .277 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at chase field this season.

The Diamondbacks are 41-18 in their last 59 home games, including 11-1 in Greinke's last 12 home starts.  Arizona is 7-0 in Greinke's last seven starts when working on 5 days of rest.  The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last five meetings in Arizona.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

15* Texans/Panthers NFLX ANNIHILATOR on Houston +1

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks +120

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been looking forward to this series for a month.  They were swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles from July 4-6, losing all three games by exactly one run.  Now this is their chance for revenge against their hated rivals.

The hype for the Dodgers is off the charts right now.  That's because they have won 44 of their last 51 games, which is the first time that has been done since 1912.  The Dodgers will be overvalued moving forward, including tonight as road favorites over the Diamondbacks.

Zack Godley is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 5-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.996 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in six home starts, and 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts while pitching 13 shutout innings against the Cubs and Cardinals.

Kenta Maeda is 4-3 with a 4.74 ERA in nine road starts this season for the Dodgers.  He is 3-2 with a 4.47 ERA in eight career starts against Arizona.  In two starts against the Diamondbacks in 2017, Maeda has gone 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA while allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 innings.  Godley is 0-1 with a 3.08 ERA in two career starts against L.A.

The Dodgers are 1-4 in Maeda's last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Diamondbacks are 40-18 in their last 58 home games.  Arizona is 8-3 in Godley's last 11 starts, including 4-1 in his last five home starts.  The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in Godley's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* Cubs/Giants ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago -1.5 (+100)

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a win in this series opener against the San Francisco Giants after losing four of their last five games overall.  Look for them to win by multiple runs tonight in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Jake Arrieta has gone 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and a .154 opponents' batting average against in four starts since the All-Star Break.  Arrieta is 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in seven career starts against the Giants.

The Cubs feast on lefties with a 0.822 OPS against them this season, which is the 3rd-best mark in the big leagues.  Matt Moore has been awful all season, going 3-11 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in 22 starts.  Moore has allowed at least 4 runs in five straight starts coming in.

The Cubs are 18-7 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .282 and scoring 6.4 runs per game.  The Cubs are 23-4 in Arrieta's last 27 road starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game.  They are winning by an average of 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Chicago is 11-1 in its last 12 road games.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Moore's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -119

The Los Angeles Angels have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall to get to 55-56 on the season and one win shy of getting back to .500.  They are still very much alive in the AL wild card race.  Look for them to take care of business at home Sunday against the A's, who are 18-37 on the road this season.

Ricky Nolasco has held his own at home this season, going 3-5 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 11 starts.  Nolasco is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 10 career starts against Oakland.  In his last two starts against them in 2017, Nolasco has allowed just 3 earned runs and 10 base runners with 14 K's in 12 2/3 innings.

Sean Manaea has faltered of late at 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has never beaten the Angels, going 0-2 with a 5.22 ERA in four career starts against them.  The A's are 0-4 in those four games.

Manaea is 0-7 (-8.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.  The A's are 23-50 in their last 73 vs. American League West opponents, including 1-6 in their last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-140)

The Boston Red Sox should have no problem beating the White Sox by multiple runs Saturday night at Fenway.  They have a massive edge on the mound and this one should be in the bag after five innings.  The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last four games overall while scoring a combined 30 runs in the process.

Drew Pomeranz is 10-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 11 road starts.  Pomeranz has been great of late at 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts.  The left-hander owns the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two career starts against them.

James Shields is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has gone 2-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.42 ERA and 2.163 WHIP in his last three starts.  Shields is 9-15 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 29 career starts against Boston.

The White Sox are 17-35 in their last 52 road games.  Chicago is 1-10 in its last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The White Sox are 1-7 in Shields' last eight road starts.  The Red Sox are 57-28 in their last 85 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Boston is 9-3 in Pomeranz's last 12 home starts.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

15* A's/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -124

The Los Angeles Angels have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall while scoring five or more runs in all six games.  They are now just one win away from getting back to .500 on the season and will be highly motivated to do so in Game 1 of this series against the Oakland A's Friday.

The Angels have done a good job of finding diamonds in the rough like Parker Bridwell.  Now they will give Troy Scribner a shot.  Scribner went 12-5 with a 3.41 ERA in the minors last season.  He was 10-3 with a 4.16 ERA when the Angels called him up last week, and he promptly got a win in an inning of relief.

Jharel Cotton has been inconsistent all season, going 5-8 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 15 starts.  He has given up 9 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Cotton is also 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in three career starts against the Angels.  He has given up 12 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in two starts against the Angels in 2017.

Los Angeles is 54-23 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last three seasons.  The A's are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  The Angels are 5-0 in their last five home games.  The A's are 0-6 in their last six meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the Angels Friday.v

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +102

The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Marlins are 6-2 in their last eight games overall, while the Braves are 2-10 in their last 12 games coming into this series.

The Marlins have the clear edge on the mound today behind Adam Conley, who is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in his last three starts, and 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in four road starts this season.  Conley has never lost to the Braves, going 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Marlins are 7-2 in their last nine road games.  Miami is 8-2 in its last 10 Friday games.  The Braves are 1-7 in their last eight games overall.  Atlanta is 1-4 in R.A. Dickey's last five starts.  Take the Marlins Friday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -114

The St. Louis Cardinals should be much bigger favorites against the Cincinnati Reds today.  They Cardinals are still in contention in the NL Central and a series sweep here would get them right back in the mix.

Mike Leake is having a great season at 7-9 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 21 starts.  Leake has pitched well against the Reds in 2017, giving up just 4 earned runs in 19 innings for a 1.89 ERA across three starts.

Asher Wojciechowski has gone 0-1 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four starts this season for the Reds.  He is 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.921 WHIP in two home starts.  Now he'll be making his first start since June 17th for Cincinnati.

The Reds are 0-10 after scoring one run or less this season.  It is losing by 4.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss.  The Reds are 2-9 in their last 11 home games.  Cincinnati is 1-8 in its last nine during Game 1 of a series.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -122

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated for a win tonight after getting swept by the Baltimore Orioles last series.  They'll be happy to return home following a tough 9-game road trip as well.  The Royals are 30-23 at home this season.

Trevor Cahill has held his own this season at 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 starts.  What really stands out is how dominant Cahill has been at home, going 4-0 with a 0.72 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in four starts while allowing just 2 earned runs in 25 innings.  Cahill is also 5-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle.

Yovani Gallardo is the weakest link in Seattle's rotation.  He is 4-7 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.552 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Gallardo is also 1-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three career starts against Kansas City.  He has allowed 6 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.

The Royals are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Kansas City is 5-0 in its last five home games.  The Mariners are 1-4 in the last five meetings.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

15* Cowboys/Cardinals HOF Game No-Brainer on Arizona +2.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)

The Toronto Blue Jays are hitting the cover off the baseball of late.  They have scored a combined 25 runs over their past three games.  They should feast on Derek Holland and easily win by two runs or more to get us a win today.

J.A. Happ is a solid lefty who has posted a 4.15 ERA in 14 starts this season and a 4.07 ERA in seven road starts.  Happ has gone 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the White Sox.  He has won his last two starts against them while giving up just 3 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings and striking out 17.

Derek Holland is 5-10 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in his last three starts.  Holland is 3-4 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in nine career starts against Toronto.  He gave up 11 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start against the Blue Jays.

The White Sox are 1-10 in Holland's last 11 starts.  Chicago is 2-10 in its last 12 home games.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -118

The Oakland A's have been a good bet at home this year at 31-24 and +6.6 units of profit.  The San Francisco Giants are 18-38 on the road, losing betters -19.6 units.  The A's are 14-5 in their last 19 home meetings with the Giants.

Oakland clearly has the edge on the mound tonight behind Sean Manaea, who is 8-5 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 19 starts, including 4-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in nine home starts.  Manaea faced the Giants once in his career, pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings in a 7-1 home victory over them last season.

Jeff Samardzija continues to get too much respect from the books despite going 5-11 with a 4.85 ERA in 21 starts, 2-6 with a 5.28 ERA in 11 road starts and 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts.  Samardzija is also 1-2 with a 10.06 ERA and 2.059 WHIP in three career starts against Oakland.

Oakland is 13-1 in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.  The A's are 8-1 in their last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the A's Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -104

The Kansas City Royals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now.  They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall and now sit at 55-48 and in a wild card spot if the season were to end today.   They trail the Indians by just two games for first place in the AL Central as well.

Danny Duffy gets the ball today looking to improve upon his 7-6 record with a 3.56 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 16 starts.  Duffy has been at his best of late, going 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in his last three starts.  The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in six career starts against Baltimore.

The Orioles are in limbo at 50-54 on the season.  Now they send their worst starter to the mound in Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 4-7 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.659 WHIP In 16 starts, including 1-2 with an 8.15 ERA and 1.840 WHIP in seven home starts.  Jimenez is also 5-5 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in 13 career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 8-0 in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas City is 22-5 in its last 27 after scoring 5 runs or more in its previous game.  The Orioles are 3-10 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series.  Baltimore is 1-5 in Jimenez's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers -122

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday after getting shut out by the Baltimore Orioles last night.  And I think they should be much bigger favorites today considering the massive edge they have on the mound.

Martin Perez hasn't been special by any means at 5-8 with a 4.58 ERA in 19 starts this season.  he is also 2-2 a 4.40 ERA in five career starts against the Orioles.  But despite those average numbers, he is still the much superior starter here.

Wade Miley is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has gone 4-9 with a 5.9 ERA and 1.792 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.76 ERA and 2.042 WHIP in his last three starts.  Miley hasn't had any success against the Rangers, going 1-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Baltimore is 18-37 (-14.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Orioles are 10-26 in their last 36 road games, including 1-5 in Miley's last six road starts.  The Rangers are 18-6 in Perez's last 24 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 meetings at Texas.  Bet the Rangers Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/Padres UNDER 8.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in baseball.  The Pirates are hitting .248 and scoring 4.3 runs per game, while the Padres are hitting .236 and scoring 3.8 runs per game this season.

Ivan Nova has been an undervalued starter all year.  He has gone 10-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  Nova has owned the Padres, going 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in two career starts against them, giving up just one earned run and 10 base runners in 12 1/3 innings while striking out 15.

On the surface, Dinelson Lamet and his 5.92 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 10 starts doesn't look too impressive.  But it's clear that this guy has great stuff when you consider he has already struck out 68 batters in 51 2/3 innings this season.  He has troubles with giving up home runs, but that shouldn't be a problem at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Nova is 10-1 to the UNDER in July games over the last three seasons.  Nova is 8-0 to the UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 22-6-1 in Pirates last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-125)

The Cleveland Indians have started to play up to their potential since the All-Star Break to try and take control of the AL Central.  They have now won seven straight games while scoring 6 or more runs in five of their last seven.  Look for them to win by multiple runs tonight against the Chicago White Sox, who have gone 1-12 in their last 13 games overall.  The White Sox are coming off their huge crosstown rivalry with the Cubs and won't be very interested tonight.

Danny Salazar had a tremendous return from the disabled list on July 22nd.  He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing just one base runners and striking out 8 in a 2-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.  Salazar is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA in 11 career starts against the White Sox.

Derek Holland has gone 5-9 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.41 ERA and 1.743 WHIP in his last three starts.  The White Sox traded away all their top bullpen arms, and it has shown lately as their bullpen has been rocked since the break.

The Indians are 13-2 in Salazar's last 15 Friday starts.  The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven games overall.  The White Sox are 0-7 in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 0-6 in Holland's last six starts.  The White Sox are 0-9 in Holland's last nine starts following a loss in their previous game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

20* Rays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on New York -111

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the New York Yankees as this small of a home favorite this season.  It just shows how undervalued C.C. Sabathia has been all season.  And the Yankees have turned the corner, going 5-1 in thier last six games overall coming in.

Sabathia has gone 9-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 16 starts this season, in which the Yankees have gone 12-4 in those outings.  The left-hander has faced the Rays twice this season, giving up just one earned run and 10 base runners in 10 innings for a 0.90 ERA.

Chris Archer is a nice talent at 7-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  But he gets priced like an ace, while Sabathia gets priced like a No. 5 starter.  Archer hasn't been as effective on the road this season, going 4-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.

The Yankees are 8-1 in Sabathia's nine starts vs. division opponents this season.  The Rays are 8-17 in Archer's last 25 starts vs. division foes.  Archer is 2-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the Yankees Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-115)

The Boston Red Sox have now lost four straight and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  The good news is that they have arguably the best starter in baseball going today to get them back on track.

Chris Sale has gone 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in 20 starts this season while striking out a ridiculous 200 batters in 141 1/3 innings already.  He has thrown 13 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts since the All-Star Break while striking out 22.  Sale is 4-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.795 WHIP in seven career starts against Seattle as well.

Andrew Moore is 1-2 with a 5.70 ERA in five starts this season for the Mariners while striking out only 13 batters in 30 innings.  Moore has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.600 WHIP while yielding 6 homers in 15 innings of work.

The Red Sox are 11-4 in Sale's last 15 starts.  Boston is 8-2 in Sale's last 10 starts when working on 4 days' rest.  The Mariners are 5-12 in their last 17 home games.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -114

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated to put an end to their current 5-game losing streak.  This is a team right in the thick of the AL East and wild card races.  They need a win here to turn it around as they currently sit at 51-49 on the season.

The Rays have the clear edge on the mound today behind Jacob Faria, who is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He has gone 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in three home starts to boot.  Faria has posted a 3.55 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in two career starts against Baltimore.

Wade Miley has been a disaster for the Orioles, who have one of the worst starting rotation ERA's in baseball.  Miley has gone 4-8 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.820 WHIP in 20 starts, 2-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.870 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 0-1 with an 11.17 ERA in his last three starts.

Baltimore is 0-11 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better this season.  It is losing threse games by 3.7 runs per game on average.  The Orioles are 9-23 in their last 32 road games.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -143

The Texas Rangers are coming off a huge 3-game sweep at the Tampa Bay Rays to conclude a tough 9-game road trip coming out of the Break.  Now they return home with some momentum as they look to chase down a wild card spot in the American League.

The Miami Marlins are just 3-6 since the break and essentially have nothing to play for but pride the rest of the way.  They will send out Adam Conley tonight, who is 2-2 with massive 6.68 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in seven starts this season.

Martin Perez has held his own this season with a 4.63 ERA spanning 18 starts for the Rangers.  The Rangers are 8-2 in Perez's last 10 interleague starts.  Texas is 19-7 in Perez's last 26 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. NL East opponents.  The Marlins are 16-35 in their last 51 interleague road games, including 2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Texas is 10-2 in interleague play this season.  Bet the Rangers Monday.

25* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -157

The Chicago Cubs are back.  They have gone 7-1 since the All-Star Break.  Jose Quintana feels revived after leaving the south side for the north side and a playoff contender.  Look for him to dominate in his Wrigley debut tonight.

Quintana had his best start of the season in his first start in a Cubs uniform.  He tossed 7 shutout innings of 3-hit ball with 12 strikeouts in an 8-0 win at Baltimore on July 16th.  He has never lost to the Cardinals, going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two career starts against them.

Michael Wacha has to be fatigued off his complete game shutout at the New York Mets in his last start in which he threw 119 pitches.  Wacha has never had much success against the Cubs, going 4-5 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 12 career starts against them.

Quintana is 15-1 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Quintana is 8-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -105

The Arizona Diamondbacks have turned things around in winning three of their last four games coming in.  They have scored a combined 31 runs in those four games as their bats are coming alive.

Taijuan Walker is on paternity leave for the birth of his child, so his turn has been skipped in the rotation.  That means the Diamondbacks are calling up their top prospect in Anthony Banda today for a spot start.  He should thrive in front of his home fans as it will be a great atmosphere in Arizona tonight.

Tanner Roark is in the midst of a down year at 7-6 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 18 starts.  Roark has allowed 9 earned runs over 10 innings while giving up 4 homers in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks.

Getting the Diamondbacks at basically even money at home is a discount here considering they are 34-15 at home this  season and scoring 5.8 runs per game.  The Nationals are 1-5 in Roark's last six starts.  Arizona is 24-10 in its last 34 games following a win.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Twins -133

The Minnesota Twins are hanging tough in the race for the AL Central.  They are 48-46 on the season and just a half-game behind the Cleveland Indians.  The Detroit Tigers have been sellers at the deadline as they just traded away JD Martinez and currently sit at 43-51.

The Twins have the edge on the mound at home today behind Ervin Santana, who is 11-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  Santana is 9-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 19 career starts against Detroit.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in five straight starts against the Tigers, going 1-1 with a 1.97 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs in 32 innings.

Anibal Sanchez is 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in five starts this season for the Tigers.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs on four of his last six starts against the Twins.  He just recently returned from the disabled list and should be pretty good fade material moving forward.

Sanchez is 3-15 (-11.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 3-12 in Sanchez's last 15 road starts.  Bet the Twins Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers +103

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday after losing the first three games of this series to the Baltimore Orioles.  I fully expect them to avoid the sweep and get a win due to their massive edge on the mound.

Cole Hamels has not lost this season, going 4-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in nine starts.  He has been unhittable of late, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 22 innings.

Wade Miley is 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He has been awful of late, going 1-2 with an 11.24 ERA and 2.748 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 15 earned runs and 33 base runners in 12 innings.  Miley is 1-5 with a 5.75 ERA in seven career starts against Texas.

Baltimore is 0-12 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.  Hamels is 14-1 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 40-14 in Hamels' last 54 starts.  Texas is 25-4 in Hamels' last 29 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Rangers Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -150

The Arizona Diamondbacks finally ended their 5-game losing streak with an emphatic 11-2 win over the lowly Cincinnati Reds last night.  The Reds are now 0-5 in their last five games while getting outscored 14-46 in the process.  This is exactly the team the Diamondbacks needed to face to get back on track.

Arizona has a huge edge on the mound today behind Zack Greinke, who is 11-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 18 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three.  Greinke is 8-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 13 career starts against Cincinnati.

Tim Adleman is 5-7 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in 16 starts this season, 4-3 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in nine home starts, and 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in his last three starts.  Adleman is also 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in one career start against Arizona, which was a 6-3 loss on July 7th earlier this month.

Cincinnati is 3-17 after scoring 2 runs or less this season.  The Diamondbacks are 20-4 in Greinke's last 24 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Arizona is 6-1 in Greinke's last seven starts overall.  The Reds are 1-6 in Adleman's last seven starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

15* Cubs/Braves NL Tuesday No-Brainer on Chicago -105

The Chicago Cubs are back!  They have finally started playing up to their potential since the All-Star Break.  They have gone a perfect 4-0 while scoring a combined 31 runs in the process to get their offense going.

John Lackey is in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation and should come through with an inspired effort tonight as a result.  Lackey is 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in four career starts against the Braves.

Sean Newcomb is 1-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has been especially poor of late, going 0-2 with a 13.51 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 11 earned runs and 20 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in losses to the Nationals and Astros.

Chicago is 60-31 (+21.4 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are 7-0 in their last seven vs. a left-handed starter.  Chicago is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with the Cubs Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -104

The Kansas City Royals had climbed their way back into contention before losing six of their last seven games overall.  They'll be highly motivated to get back in the win column tonight against the Detroit Tigers.

The Royals have the edge on the mound today with Travis Wood (4.50 ERA) over Matt Boyd, who has gone 2-5 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.771 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 2.074 WHIP in six road starts.  Boyd is 1-3 with a 9.11 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in seven career starts against Kansas City.

The Tigers are 1-6 in Boyd's last seven starts.  Detroit is 3-8 in its last 11 road games.  The Tigers are 9-19 in their last 28 games following a win.  The Royals are 13-3 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series.  Take the Royals Tuesday.

5* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Diamondbacks -142

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after a season-high 5-game losing streak.  They  have lost eight of their last nine overall, but now they get to face one of the worst teams in baseball in the Cincinnati Reds to get back on track.  The Reds are 0-4 in their last four games while getting outscored 12-35 in the process.

Robbie Ray has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  The left-hander has gone 8-4 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in eight road starts.  His stuff is tremendous as he has struck out 141 batters in 106 innings.

Sal Romano is one of a long list of terrible Reds' starters this season.  Their starting rotation has the worst ERA in baseball.  Romano has gone 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in two starts this season.

Cincinnati is 3-16 after scoring 2 runs or less this season.  The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in their last nine when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Arizona is 5-0 in Ray's last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Arizona is 7-2 in Ray's last nine starts overall.  The Reds are 22-48 in their last 70 games vs. a left-handed starter.   Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -117

The Kansas City Royals ended their five-game losing streak with a 4-3 win over the Rangers yesterday.  Look for them to start a winning streak here with a victory in Game 1 over the Detroit Tigers, who are 41-49 on the season and mired in trade discussions with several of their best players.

The Royals have a massive edge on the mound tonight behind Jason Vargas, who is 12-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  Vargas has been untouchable at home, going 7-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in nine starts.

Jordan Zimmerman has been a huge disappointment in Detroit.  He has gone 5-7 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 17 starts, 0-4 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.720 WHIP in nine road starts, and 0-2 with a 9.94 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in his last three outings.

Vargas is 13-2 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last three seasons.  Vargas is 9-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.  The Tigers are 1-9 in Zimmerman's last 10 road starts.  The Royals are 11-1 in Vargas' last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas City is 21-6 in Vargas' last 27 starts overall.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* Yankees/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will play a double-header Sunday.  I like taking the OVER in Game 2 in these situations because you know that the bullpens are going to be used up, meaning a better chance of late runs being scored in Game 2.  That's especially the case after their 16-inning marathon last night.

But this one could easily be OVER by the end of the 5th inning.  Masahiro Tanaka is having a rough year at 7-8 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 18 starts, including 3-4 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.632 WHIP in nine road starts.  Tanaka just faced the Red Sox on June 6th, giving up 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 4-5 loss.

David Price is just having an average season for him at 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in nine starts.  But Price has really had troubles with the Yankees of late.  He has gone 1-4 with an 8.31 ERA in his last six starts against them, allowing a whopping 32 earned runs in 34 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 9-3 in Tanaka's last 12 road starts.  The OVER is 19-7-1 in Yankees last 27 vs. AL East foes.  The OVER is 14-3 in Price's last 17 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  The OVER is 5-1 in Price's last 6 starts vs. Yankees, while the OVER is 7-3 in Tanaka's last 10 starts vs. Red Sox.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rangers/Royals UNDER 9

The Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals will struggle to put runs across the plate here Saturday night.  This is a pitcher-friendly stadium in Kansas City and we have two of the better left-handers in the league getting the ball tonight for their respective teams.

Cole Hamels has been sharp in his last two starts since returning from the DL.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 6 base runners over 14 1/3 innings in those two starts, and he's now 4-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Hamels is also 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals, yielding only 3 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings.

Danny Duffy is 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in five home starts.  Duffy has also had recent success against the Rangers, going 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in his last two starts against them, allowing just 1 earned run in 14 innings.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Rangers last five games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Duffy's five home starts this season.  The UNDER is 22-7-3 in the last 32 meetings in Kansas City.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Twins/Astros OVER 9

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks tonight between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros.  The Astros have one of the best lineups in baseball as they are scoring 5.9 runs per game overall and 5.8 against right-handed starters.  The Twins are scoring 4.6 overall and 5.0 against right-handers.  The Astros have scored 10 or more runs in four of their last six games overall.

Jose Berrios got off to a great start for the Twins this year, but he has come back down to reality of late.  He is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Berrios doesn't enjoy facing the Astros, going 1-2 with an 8.03 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Charlie Morton recently returned from the disabled list hoping to pick up where he left off after going 6-3 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  But Morton has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.764 WHIP in one career start against Minnesota, and the Twins won't make it easy on him tonight.

Minnesota is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 8-0-1 in Astros last nine games overall.  The OVER is 6-0-2 in Morton's last eight starts.  The OVER is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -118

The Colorado Rockies have hit the skids over the past few weeks.  But they will be motivated to go into the All-Star Break on a winning note at home here Sunday, and we are getting them at a great value as only -118 favorites over the Chicago White Sox.

Kyle Freeland has held his own this season for the Rockies, going 8-7 with a 4.00 ERA in 17 starts.  He has been at his best at home, where he is 4-4 with a 3.80 ERA despite pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Carlos Rodon is getting too much respect from the books because he has posted a 1.59 ERA in two starts this season since returning from injury.  But this is by far his toughest test yet and I expect the Rockies to jump on him early and often.

The White Sox are 1-7 in their last eight interleague road games.  Chicago is 10-23 in its last 33 road games overall.  The Rockies are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss.  Colorado is 13-5 in its last 18 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Rockies Sunday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado Rockies -133

We're getting the Colorado Rockies at a very generous price at home here today against the Chicago White Sox.  They busted out of their slump with a 12-spot yesterday against the Sox, who have lost three straight coming in.  I look for the Rockies to take Game 2 today as well.

Jeff Hoffman is one of the best young prospects in the Rockies' organization.  He has certainly held his own in eight starts this season, going 5-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in eight starts with 46 K's and only 4 HR's allowed in 48 innings.

Jose Quintana has been overvalued for much of the season.  The left-hander has gone 4-8 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 17 starts this year.  Now he'll be up against a Rockies' lineup that is hitting .292 and scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this year.

The White Sox are 4-16 in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 25-57 in their last 82 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 0-7 in its last seven interleague road games.  Colorado is 6-1 in its last seven vs. AL Central foes.  Bet the Rockies Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -116

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value at home today against the New York Mets.  We are getting them as a small home favorite despite the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.

Carlos Martinez is 6-7 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.963 WHIP in nine home starts.  Martinez has never lost to the Mets, going 3-0 (4-0 money line) with a 1.16 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Jacob DeGrom is 8-3 with a 3.55 ERA in 16 starts this season, and 4-1 with a 4.56 ERA in eight road starts.  DeGrom has faced the Cardinals twice in St. Louis in his career, going 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA while allowing 11 earned runs and 28 base runners over 9 innings of work.

The Cardinals are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. NL East opponents.  St. Louis is 26-10 in Martinez's last 36 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mets are 8-17 in their last 25 meetings in St. Louis.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in Martinez's last four starts vs. New York.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-120)

The Cleveland Indians broke out of their funk with an 11-run outburst yesterday against the San Diego Padres.  It was the second time in four games in which they have put up 11 runs.  I look for their bats to stay hot today and for them to win this game over the Tigers by multiple runs.

Carlos Carrasco has gone 9-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in 16 starts this season for the Indians.  He has owned the Tigers of late, going 5-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last seven starts against them, giving up only 8 earned runs in 45 1/3 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman is 5-6 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  He is still looking for his first road win, going 0-3 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.634 WHIP In eight starts away from home.  And Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-2 with a whopping 10.67 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Plays on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after a win by 4 runs or more are 35-3 (92.1%) since 1997.  These teams are winning by 3.6 runs per game on average.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +130

This is a huge series for the Tampa Bay Rays.  They trail the Boston Red Sox by 4.5 games for first place in the AL East.  They took Game 1 yesterday 4-1 over Chris Sale, and now they are showing great value again as +130 dogs at home here in Game 2.

Jake Odorizzi has been solid this season at 5-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 15 starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in eight starts.  He has held his own against the Red Sox at 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.288 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.

Drew Pomeranz has been solid as well at 8-4 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.322 WHIP In 16 starts this season.  But he has struggled in two starts against the Rays, going 0-1 with an 8.60 ERA while giving up 7 earned runs and 13 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.

The Rays are 5-1 in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 9-4 in its last 13 home games.  The Rays are 4-1 in Odorizzie's last five home starts vs. Boston.  Odorizzi is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in five career home starts against Boston.  Roll with the Rays Friday.

20* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -162

The Chicago Cubs trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 3.5 games for first place in the AL Central.  They have four straight home games to close out the All-Star Break, and they have a good chance to close the gap here with a win Thursday.  They'll be motivated at home.

The Cubs have a big edge on the mound today with Mike Montgomery, who is 1-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in two home starts.  Montgomery has posted a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in two career starts against Milwaukee.

Zach Davies is extremely fortunate to have a 9-4 record this season in spite of his 5.03 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 17 starts this year.  And Davies hasn't had much success against the Cubs, going 3-3 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He has allowed 8 earned runs over 10 innings in his last two starts against them.

Milwaukee is 3-20 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 110-54 in their last 164 home games.  Chicago is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings, including 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Chicago.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -135

I've been backing the St. Louis Cardinals a lot lately and I'm going to continue to do so tonight.  They have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and are determined to get back to .500 by the All-Star Break with this 10-game home stand to close it out.

Now the Cardinals have a clear edge on the mound with Mike Leake, who is 6-6 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Leake has owned the Marlins, going 6-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Edinson Volquez gets too much respect from the books despite going 4-8 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.392 WHIP in 16 starts this season, 1-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in eight road starts, and 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA in his last three outings.  Volquez is also 5-6 with a 4.27 ERA in 18 career starts against St. Louis.

The Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 1-7 in Volquez's last eight road starts.  The Cardinals are 15-3 in their last 18 vs. NL East opponents.  St. Louis is 6-0 in Leake's last six starts vs. NL East foes.  Bet the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -141

The St. Louis Cardinals are on a nice run here of late.  They have won six of their last eight games overall with their only losses coming to Max Scherzer and the Nationals, and a 5-6 loss at Arizona.  I'll gladly back them at home here against the struggling Miami Marlins, who have lost four of their last five coming in.

Adam Wainwright has been terrible on the road, but he has been an absolute beast at home this year.  The veteran right-hander has gone 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight home starts.  Wainwright is also 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in nine career starts against Miami.

Left-hander Jeff Locke is still looking for his first win of the season for the Marlins.  He has gone 0-4 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in his last three starts.  Locke is 2-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 10 career starts against St. Louis as well.

The Marlins are 0-6 in Locke's last six starts.  The Cardinals are 14-2 in their last 16 vs. NL East opponents.  St. Louis is 36-15 in Wainwright's last 51 home starts.  The Cardinals are 40-14 in Wainwright's last 54 starts when working on four days of rest.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Astros OVER 8.5

The Yankees and Astros have two of the best lineups in baseball.  The Yankees are hitting .270 and scoring 5.7 runs per game this season, while the Astros are hitting .283 and scoring 5.6 runs per game.  The books have clearly set this total too low today at 8.5.

Michael Fiers is 5-3 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  He has given up 18 homers in 83 2/3 innings.  Fiers has posted a 7.59 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees.  Both of those games had 8.5-run totals and went way over with 17 and 13 combined runs.

Luis Severino is having a solid season overall, but he has struggled of late with a 4.74 ERA in his last three starts.  Severino has an 11.56 ERA and 3.863 WHIP in one career start against New York.  That came earlier this season opposite Fiers on May 14th with 17 combined runs scored in that contest.

Houston is 9-1 OVER in Sunday games this season.  New York is 9-0 OVER in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 1-plus runs per game over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 6-0 in Yankees last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall.  Their offense has come to life in scoring a combined 43 runs in their last six games, averaging 7.2 runs per game.  I look for them to stay red hot against the Washington Nationals tonight.

Michael Wacha has been very good at home this season, going 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA in nine starts.  He has only allowed 3 homers in 49 2/3 innings at home this year.  Wacha has gone 2-2 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.698 WHIP in four career starts against the Nationals, simply owning them.

Gio Gonzalez has been much worse on the road than at home this year.  He has posted a 4.06 ERA in eight starts away from home.  He has also struggled recently against the Cardinals, posting a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings.

Washington is 31-60 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons.  St. Louis is 13-1 in its last 14 vs. NL East opponents.  The Nationals are 7-22 in the last 29 meetings in St. Louis.  Washington is 2-10 in Gonzalez's last 12 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -120

The Kansas City Royals have been on a nice run over the past month to get back into the AL Central race.  They have a big home series here with the Minnesota Twins, and I look for them to get a win in Game 1 tonight.

Jason Vargas has been one of the best starters in baseball.  The left-hander has gone 11-3 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in eight home starts.  Vargas has pitched 11 shutout innings in his last two starts against the Twins as well.

Ervin Santana got off to a great start this season, but he was due for some regression when you looked at the peripherals. And Santana has regressed, posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.937 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 6-9 with a 4.51 ERA in 22 career starts against Kansas City.

Vargas is 7-0 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in June games over the last three seasons.  The Twins are hitting just .243 and scoring 3.9 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  They are 0-4 in their last four vs. left-handed starters.  The Royals are 17-5 in Vargas' last 22 home starts.  Kansas City is 6-1 in Vargas' last seven starts against Minnesota, while the Twins are 1-7 in Santana's last eight starts against the Royals.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* Nationals/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on St. Louis -120

The St. Louis Cardinals have turned the corner over the last week.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall and have really gotten their bats going, scoring a combined 35 runs in those five games, or an average of 7.0 runs per game.

Mike Leake has been tremendous this season, going 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in 15 starts.  One of those starts came against the Nationals on April 12th in which Leake pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing only four base runners in a 6-1 win at Washington.

Tanner Roark has struggled all year, going 6-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 16 starts.  He has really fallen apart in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.195 WHIP.  He has allowed 19 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings during this stretch against some pretty weak lineups in the Reds, Marlins and Braves.

Washington is 31-59 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last four starts.  St. Louis is 12-1 in its last 13 vs. NL East opponents.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in Leake's last five starts vs. NL East foes.  The Nationals are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in St. Louis.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -110

Any time you can get the Cubs at basically even money it's worth a look.  They are undervalued right now due to their surprisingly slow start.  But they picked up perhaps their biggest win of the season, erasing a two-run deficit with two outs in the 9th inning to beat the Nationals 5-4 last night.  Now they come into this series with the Reds with confidence.

Mike Montgomery has been great in a Cubs uniform, but he gets zero respect from oddsmakers.  The left-hander has gone 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in four starts this season.  The Reds are 3-14 against left-handed starters this season.

Scott Feldman has been solid but nothing special, going 6-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 16 starts for the Reds.  Feldman faced the Cubs for the first and only time in his career earlier this season on May 17th, giving up 7 runs and 8 base runners over 2 2/3 innings of a 5-7 loss.

The Reds are 19-47 in their last 66 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cincinnati is 4-15 in its last 19 games overall.  Chicago is 38-13 in its last 51 meetings with Cincinnati.  Roll with the Cubs Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have actually lost two out of three against the crosstown rival Los Angeles Dodgers in this series. They want to square the series here in Game 4 with a win, and they'll have a great chance to do that due to their huge edge on the mound.

Ace Clayton Kershaw gets the ball looking to improve upon his 11-2 record with a 2.47 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 16 starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 5-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in seven road starts.  Kershaw is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in nine career starts against the Angels.

JC Ramirez is 5-5 with a 4.32 ERA in 14 starts for the Angels this season.  He has gone 0-3 with a 4.83 ERA in seven home starts as well.  While Ramirez has held his own, he is clearly in over his head against Kershaw and this red hot Dodgers lineup.

The Dodgers are 40-11 as a favorite of -150 or more this season, winning by 2.7 runs per game on average.  The Dodgers are 34-7 in Kershaw's last 41 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher, winning by 2.5 runs per game on average.  The Dodgers are 21-1 in Karshaw's last 22 starts vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base over the last two seasons, winning by 3.0 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -108

The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers have lost the first two games of this series to the Cincinnati Reds by three combined runs in heartbreaking fashion.  They'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today in Game 3.

The Brewers clearly have the better starter on the mound in Jimmy Nelson, who is 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA in 15 starts while striking out 93 batters in 90 innings.  Nelson is 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his last four starts against the Reds, giving up only 6 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings.  The Brewers are 4-1 in Nelson's last five starts vs. Cincinnati.

Homer Bailey was awful in his first start of 2017 as he returned from injury on June 24th, giving up 8 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings of a 3-18 loss to the Nationals.  Bailey is 5-8 with a 4.64 ERA in 22 career starts against Milwaukee as well.

Cincinnati is 3-15 in home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last two seasons.  The Brewers are 14-2 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series.  The Reds are 4-14 in their last 18 games overall.  Cincinnati is 4-11 in Bailey's last 15 starts.  Cincinnati is 1-8 in Bailey's last nine starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Roll with the Brewers Thursday.

15* Cubs/Nationals NL Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +104

The Chicago Cubs have lost two straight to the Nationals to fall back to .500 on the season.  I expect them to be highly motivated for a win here in Game 4 to square this series.  And they should not be dogs today considering the massive edge they have on the mound.

Lefty Jon Lester continues to be a dominant starting pitcher in this league.  He has gone 5-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 16 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in his last three outings.  Lester is also 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in four career starts against Washington.

Joe Ross has simply been fortunate to get good run support this year.  The right-hander is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against them.

Washington is 2-7 in home games off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Plays on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (NL), after two straight losses by four runs or more are 52-21 (71.2%, +34.8 units) since 1997.  The Cubs are 37-16 in Lester's last 53 starts.  Take the Cubs Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -117

The Colorado Rockies are highly motivated for a win right now after losing seven straight, including last night's 14-inning loss to the San Francisco Giants.  But they are a good bet today as small road favorites considering their big edge on the mound.

Kyle Freeland has gone 8-5 with a 3.59 ERA in 15 starts this season for the Rockies.  Freeland has owned the Giants, going 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in two career starts against them.  Both starts have come this season in which he has allowed only one earned run in 13 innings of work.

Ty Blach is a soft tosser who can't get strikeouts.  He has struck out only 33 batters in 74 innings this season.  He is 4-5 with a 4.86 ERA in 12 starts, including 0-2 with a 9.97 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 14 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in his last two home starts.

The Rockies are 9-4 in Freeland's last 13 starts, including 6-2 in his last eight road starts.  The Giants are 18-44 in their last 62 games following a win.  San Francisco is 3-10 in its last 13 home games.  The Giants are 0-4 in Blach's last four starts.  Bet the Rockies Wednesday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado Rockies -134

The Colorado Rockies are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight coming in and are desperate to end this skid.  They lost game 1 to the Giants, who are just 28-51 on the season.  They'll bounce back with a win in Game 2 Tuesday.

Jeff Hoffman has been dominant outside of one start this season.  He has been especially effective on the road, going 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.541 WHIP in three starts, striking out 24 batters in 20 1/3 innings while allowing just 3 earned runs and 11 base runners.

Matt Cain is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.718 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA and 2.326 WHIP in his last three.

The Rockies are 10-2 against the Giants this season.  Colorado is 5-1 in Hoffman's six starts this year.  The Giants are 6-21 in their last 27 games overall, including 2-10 in their last 12 home games.  San Francisco is 1-6 in Cain's last seven starts.  Bet the Rockies Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110)

The Arizona Diamondbacks should win by multiple runs today over the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.  The Diamondbacks are 28-10 at home this season, hitting .289 and scoring 6.3 runs per game.  The Phillies are 10-30 on the road, hitting .236 and scoring 3.5 runs per game.

Zack Greinke is back to being Zack Greinke this season.  He has gone 8-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.048 WHIP In 15 starts, including a perfect 6-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in eight home starts.  Greinke is also 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in nine career starts against Philadelphia.

Nick Pivetta has had a rough go of it since being called up.  He is 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.767 WHIP in five road starts.

Philly is 1-11 after scoring one run or less this season, losing by 2.6 runs per game.  Greinke is 40-10 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 in his career, and his teams are winning by 2.1 runs per game.  Greinke is 23-4 in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse in his career.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -108

The Seattle Mariners are 25-14 at home this season.  They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall and are playing their best baseball of the season.  They will be highly motivated to win Game 3 and take this series with the Houston Astros, who have the best record in the majors.

I like the Mariners' chances today with the underrated Ariel Miranda on the mound.  The tall left-hander has been dominant at home this season, going 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in seven home starts.  Miranda has held his own against the Astros too, going 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Francis Martes is no more than a fill in starter for the Astros.  He has gone 2-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in his two starts against the A's and Rangers.  Now he's up against a hot Seattle lineup that has scored 5 or more runs in six of their last seven games coming in.

The Mariners are 8-3 in Miranda's last 11 home starts.  Seattle is 8-2 in Miranda's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

20* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -140

The Baltimore Orioles just became the first team since the 1924 Philadelphia Phillies to allow at least 5 runs in 20 straight games when they lost 5-15 to the Rays yesterday.  That streak will continue today as they get blown out by the Rays once again.

Dylan Bundy has hit the skids after a great start to the season.  Bundy is 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in his last three starts.  The right-hander is also 0-1 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in three career starts against Tampa Bay, yielding 7 homers in 13 1/3 innings.

Jacob Faria is one of the top prospects in the Rays' organization.  He has been brilliant in three starts this season, going 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.966 WHIP while striking out 22 batters in 19 2/3 innings.  He will be facing the Orioles for the first time today, which is to his advantage.

Baltimore is 0-10 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.  The Orioles are 5-21 in their last 26 road games.  The Rays are 8-1 in their last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Rays Saturday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -121

The Chicago Cubs are playing much better of late.  They have won four of their last five games coming in behind a dominant pitching staff that has only allowed a total of 7 runs in those five games.  Their offense got going yesterday in hanging an 11-spot on the Marlins.

John Lackey is coming off one of his best starts of the season in which he allowed just one run over six innings of a 7-1 victory at Pittsburgh.  Lackey should have his way with the Marlins in the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park.

Jose Urena has held his own for the Marlins, going 5-2 with a 4.04 ERA in nine starts this year.  But he doesn't have dominant stuff with just 33 K's in 49 innings.  And he has already walked 21 batters.  Urena is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against Chicago.

Plays against home teams (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 82-33 (71.3%, +57.2 units) since 1997.  Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MIAMI) - cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last three games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 45-11 (80.4%, +29.8 units) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees finally ended their 7-game losing streak with an 8-4 victory over the Los Angeles Angels yesterday.  I fully expect them to start a winning streak now and win this game by multiple runs over the Angels Thursday night.

Luis Severino has been awesome this season for the Yankees, going 5-2 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 13 starts.  He has tremendous stuff as he has struck out 90 batters in 81 1/3 innings, and the Angels don't have their best hitter in Mike Trout.

We'll gladly fade Jesse Chavez, who is 5-6 with a 4.69 ERA in 14 starts this season.  Chavez has been at his worst on the road, going 2-4 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in seven starts away from home.

The Yankees are 19-5 in home games against right-handed starters this season, winning by 3.3 runs per game on average.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine home meetings with Los Angeles.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.

20* AL Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -1.5 (-120)

The New York Yankees have not lost seven straight games.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Los Angeles Angels, who remain without Mike Trout.  I expect the Yankees to win by multiple runs tonight to end this skid.

Jordan Montgomery has been one of the more underrated starters in the big leagues this season.  The left-hander has gone 4-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 12 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last three outings.

We'll gladly fade Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-8 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.392 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Angels.  Nolasco certainly doesn't enjoy facing the Yankees, going 1-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight home meetings with the Angels.  New York is 18-5 at home against right-handed starters this season, winning by over 3 runs per game on average.  The Angels are 0-9 in Nolasco's last nine starts overall.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -128

The Seattle Mariners have been a great bet at home this season.  They are 21-13 (+6.1 units) at Safeco Field this year.  The Detroit Tigers are 14-21 (-5.9 units) on the road this season.  And I believe the Mariners have the edge on the mound at home tonight to boot.

Ariel Miranda has gone 6-3 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 14 starts this year.  But he has done most of his damage at Safeco, where he is 3-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in six starts.  He is averaging 7 innings pitched per home start this year.

Jordan Zimmerman has struggled on the road.  He is 5-5 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in 13 starts overall this season, and 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in six road starts.  Zimmerman has posted a 5.25 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle.

The Tigers are 0-7 in Zimmerman's last seven road starts.  The Mariners are 6-1 in the last seven meetings, including 4-0 in the last four home meetings.  Seattle is 7-3 in Miranda's last 10 home starts.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

20* Astros/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

Expect a high-scoring affair tonight between the Oakland A's and Houston Astros in Game 1 of this series Monday.  The wind is expected to be blowing out to right center at 11 miles per hour come first pitch.  And the Astros are scoring 6.6 runs per game on the road, while the A's are scoring 5.0 runs per game at home.

Brad Peacock has just been decent as a fill-in starter for the Astros.  He has gone 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in five starts, including 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in his last three outings.  Peacock is 1-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in seven career starts against Oakland as well.

Daniel Gossett will be making just his second start of the season for the A's.  His first did not go well at all as he allowed 7 runs, 6 earned, and 2 homers over 3 1/3 innings of a 6-11 loss at Miami in a pitcher-friendly park on June 14th.

Oakland is 12-2 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.  The OVER is 7-2-3 in Astros last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 8-2-1 in A's last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -108

The Yankees have now lost five straight games.  It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated for a victory today against the Oakland A's to avoid the sweep in this series and end this skid.

Luis Cessa has been a nice fill in starter for the Yankees over the past few seasons, spending time between the bullpen and as a starter.  He went 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 17 games for the Yankees last year, including nine starts.

We'll gladly fade Jharel Cotton, who is 3-7 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Cotton has been at his worst at home, going 1-3 with a 7.76 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in five home starts.  Cotton is also 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in one career start against New York.

The Yankees are 21-10 in their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  The A's are 0-5 in their last five Sunday games.  Oakland is 0-5 in Cotton's last five starts.  Bet the Yankees Sunday.

15* Royals/Angels AL No-Brainer on Kansas City -104

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and scored 7 or more runs in five of those wins.  Now they have a huge edge on the mound over the Angels today.

Kansas City ace Jason Vargas has gone 9-3 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  Vargas is 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Angels.

JC Ramirez is 4-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 12 starts for the Angels, including 1-1 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in his last three starts.  Ramirez is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one career start against Kansas City, which came earlier this season on April 14th in a 7-1 loss to the Royals.

The Royals are 6-1 in their last seven road games.  Kansas City is 6-0 in Vargas' last six starts vs. AL West opponents.  Kansas City is 9-1 in Vargas' last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Angels are 20-41 in their last 61 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Royals Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -111

The St. Louis Cardinals have a massive edge on the mound today over the Baltimore Orioles.  But we are getting them at nearly even money here as -111 favorites and that is simply too good to pass up.

Lance Lynn has been St. Louis' best starter, going 5-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 13 starts.  He has been at his best of late, going 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in his last three starts.

Ubaldo Jimenez is 1-2 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.740 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He actually lost his spot in the rotation and hasn't pitched since May 22nd.  I don't expect him to be a whole lot better in his return to the rotation here Sunday.

The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.  Baltimore is 0-5 in its last five Sunday games.  The Orioles are 1-12 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -129

The New York Yankees have now lost four straight games.  They'll clearly be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Oakland A's to put an end to this rare losing streak.  This team is simply too good to drop a 5th in a row today.

Masahiro Tanaka isn't having his best season, but now he's up against a team that he has dominated throughout his career.  Indeed, Tanaka is 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in four starts against the A's.  He struck out 13 while allowing only one earned run in 7 1/3 innings against the A's on May 26th in his only start against them this season.

Jesse Hahn is overmatched here.  He is 2-1 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.754 WHIP in four home starts this season, and 1-1 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hahn has never beaten the Yankees, going 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in two career starts against them.

Tanaka is 15-3 (+10.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  Tanaka is 15-1 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are 8-0 in Tanaka's last eight road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Yankees Saturday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Brewers -152

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the best team in the NL Central this season while flying under the radar.  They are coming off three straight road victories over the Cardinals and return home for a series with the lowly San Diego Padres, who are 27-40 on the season, including 10-22 on the road.

Junior Guerra is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in five starts this season.  The Brewers are glad to have him back healthy as he's probably their most talented starter.  This is a guy that went 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 20 starts last season.  Guerra pitched 6 shutout innings in his only career home start against San Diego last season.

Miguel Diaz spent the past four years in the Brewers' farm system, so they'll have an excellent scouting report on him.  He went 1-8 with a 3.71 ERA in 26 appearances last season for Class A Wisconsin.  He began the season in San Diego's bullpen, going 1-1 with a 7.50 ERA in 21 appearances.

San Diego is 10-30 (-17.2 Units) against the money line after having won three of their last four games over the last two seasons.  The Padres are 16-39 in their last 55 road games.  The Brewers are 8-2 in Guerra's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Brewers Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -147

The Colorado Rockies are one of the best teams in baseball.  They have gone 42-26 on the season behind one of the best lineups in baseball and one of the most underrated staffs in the league.  Now they're set for a 4-game series with the San Francisco Giants, who are 26-41 and a total mess this season.

Speaking of underrated starters, Jeff Hoffman is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.740 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has allowed just 6 runs and 19 base runners over 25 2/3 innings while striking out 32 batters in those four starts.

Matt Moore is straight fade material for the Giants.  The left-hander has gone 2-7 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.507 WHIP in 13 starts, including 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in seven road starts.  Moore is 1-3 with a 7.92 ERA and 1.959 WHIP in five career starts against Colorado as well.

The Giants are 1-7 in Moore's last eight road starts.  The Rockies are 7-1 in their last eight home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Colorado is 13-3 in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Rockies Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -123

The Baltimore Orioles have now lost six straight to fall below .500 on the season.  It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday to stop the skid, and they have their ace on the mound to help them do just that.

Dylan Bundy has been awesome this season, going 6-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 13 starts.  Bundy has never lost to the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Miguel Gonzalez is 4-7 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in his last three outings.  Gonzalez has never beaten the Orioles, going 0-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in two career starts against them.

The White Sox are 1-7 in Gonzalez's last eight starts.  Chicago is 0-7 in Gonzalez's last seven starts against scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The White Sox are 0-6 in their last six during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Orioles Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Twins UNDER 11

Yesterday, the Mariners and Twins combined for 17 runs with the wind blowing out to right field at roughly 15 miles per hour.  Now we have the wind expected to be blowing in at 15 miles per hour from right field Tuesday.  That will help aid this UNDER with a huge total of 11 here.

Kyle Gibson has been pitching much better of late after a terrible start to the season.  He is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three starts this year.  Gibson is 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA in seven career starts against Seattle.  He just faced the Mariners in his last start on June 8, giving up just one run in 6 innings of a 2-1 victory.

Christian Bergman is also a hot starter right now for the Mariners, going 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in his last three starts.  And Bergman was opposite Gibson on June 8, giving up one earned run in 5 innings to take the loss that 2-1 defeat.

Minnesota is 13-2 UNDER after a game where they had at least 10 less hits than their opponent over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 231

Oddsmakers have over-adjusted here due to three straight overs cashing in the NBA Finals.  We saw a 221-point total for Game 2, and now we're seeing a 231-point total for Game 5.  This 10-point adjustment means that there is clearly value on the UNDER.

And there are more reasons to like the UNDER for Game 5.  As a series goes on, teams become more and more familiar with one another.  And that's the case here.  I think after the Cavs won Game 4 to extend this series, there will be a tightness about this game for both squads.

And I think that favors the UNDER as both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively, while the Warriors will be tight on offense trying to win a championship, and the Cavs as well trying to avoid elimination.  Neither team will be playing and shooting as freely as they have up to this point in the series.

Cleveland is 18-4 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 8-1 to the UNDER after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Warriors last 12 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -129

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be playing for starter Jameson Taillon, who makes his return from surgery for testicular cancer today.  They will want to win this game for him after all that he has been through over the past five weeks.

Taillon is only 25 years old.  He was 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA in six starts before going on the disabled list.  He went 0-1 with a 3.21 ERA over three rehab starts between Double-A Altoona and Indianapolis as well.  It gave him some time to work on things, and now he says he's 100% ready physically and mentally because it's not like he's returning from an injury.

I think this is an awful spot for the Colorado Rockies.  They just took three out of four from the defending champion Cubs at Wrigley Field over the weekend, and now this sets up to be a letdown situation in Game 1 of this series.  Plus they aren't going to be too motivated to beat up on a guy that is returning from cancer surgery.

The Pirates are 52-24 in their last 76 vs. NL West opponents.  Pittsburgh is 9-2 in its last 11 meetings with Colorado.  The Pirates are also 9-2 in their last 11 home meetings with the Rockies.  Take the Pirates Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -137

The Seattle Mariners have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall.  They are 20-12 at home this season and I believe they should be bigger favorites today against the Blue Jays, especially with their star ace on the mound.

James Paxton has been Cy Young-caliber to start the 2017 campaign.  He has gone 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in eight starts, including 4-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in five home starts.The left-hander is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts against Toronto.

J.A. Happ has struggled this season compared to last year as he has battled injuries.  The left-hander is still looking for his first win, going 0-4 with a 5.33 ERA in five starts this year.  Paxton has posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in five career starts against Seattle.

The Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last four games following a win.  Toronto is 1-5 in Happ's last six starts.  The Mariners are 5-1 in their last six vs. AL East foes.  Seattle is 4-1 in Paxton's last five home starts.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

The Los Angeles Dodgers should have no problem beating the Cincinnati Reds by multiple runs tonight.  They have a huge edge on the mound as far as the starting pitchers are concerned, and in the bullpen.

Alex Wood has been unhittable this season, especially of late.  Wood is 5-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in his last three starts.  Wood is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati as well.

Asher Wojchiechowski is no more than a spot starter for the Reds.  He has struggled in his two starts this season, going 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.400 WHIP.  He gave up four earned runs and three homers in four innings of a 4-6 loss at Toronto in his only road start.

The Dodgers are 23-10 at home this season and winning by 2.2 runs per game on average.  Los Angeles is 21-3 in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 2.7 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors just took the life out of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  They came back from a 6-point deficit in the final three minutes, outscoring the Warriors 11-0 to close the game and win 118-113.

The Cavs thought they had the game won and couldn't close, and now their state of mind is that they're beaten.  I expect the Cavs to come out and try in the first half, but once the Warriors get ahead, I think they will quit fighting and just except their fate.

Conversely, the Warriors will be more motivated than ever to win this game.  They can be the first team in NBA history to go 16-0 in the playoffs.  And what sweet revenge that would be to sweep the Cavs a year after blowing a 3-1 deficit to them.  Simply put, the Warriors are going to want this game more.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS off a home loss this season.  Golden State is 7-0 ATS in all playoff road games this season.  The Warriors are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  The Cavs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Friday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-114)

The Cleveland Indians are highly motivated for a victory here Friday.  They have lost four of their last five and had yesterday off to regroup.  Fortunately, they get to play a team in the White Sox that are struggling worse than they are right now.  Chicago is 1-7 in its last eight games coming in.

Ace Corey Kluber gets the ball looking to end this skid.  Kluber is 4-2 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in seven starts this season.  The right-hander is 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 15 career starts against Chicago, including 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA in his last three, allowing just 2 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.

Miguel Gonzalez is 4-6 with a 4.83 ERA in 11 starts this season, 1-5 with a 5.74 ERA in seven road starts, and 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in his last three starts overall.  Gonzalez has also posted a 4.37 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in six career starts against Cleveland.

Cleveland is 12-0 in June home games over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 4.5 runs per game.  The Indians are 31-9 after having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, winning by 2.5 runs per game on average.  Gonzalez is 0-9 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last two seasons, and his teams are losing by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

20* Twins/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -120

The Seattle Mariners have fought their way back to .500 by playing their best baseball of the season of late.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall while scoring at least five runs in all nine victories.  They won in walk off fashion last night against the Twins and come in with a ton of confidence.

The Mariners should be bigger favorites today considering their edge on the mound.  Christian Bergman is 3-2 with a 4.60 ERA in five starts this season, but 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two home starts.  He has never faced the Twins before and will have the element of surprise working in his favor.

Kyle Gibson has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season for Minnesota.  He is 2-4 with a 7.23 ERA and 1.866 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He has given up more earned runs (34) than he has strikeouts (31) in 42 1/3 innings pitched.

The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five home games.  The Twins are 3-10 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series.  Seattle is 11-2 after a 5-game span with an OBP of .375 or better this season.  Bet the Mariners Thursday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 227

The last game between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers was an aberration.  Cleveland tried to push the tempo, and it didn't work.  As a result, they lost 113-132 to the Warriors for 245 combined points.  Look for the Cavs to slow it down at home n Game 3, which is their best shot to beat the Warriors.

Before last game, the UNDER was 7-2-1 in the previous 10 meetings.  The Cavs and Warriors had combined for 217 or fewer points in all 10 of those games.  They had averaged 204.0 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is 23 points less than tonight's posted total of 227.

The Warriors have been much less efficient in the fast break on the road this season.  They are scoring 7 fewer fast break points per game on the road this season than they are at home.  They won't get nearly as many easy looks in Cleveland as they have in these first two games.

Golden State's defense continues to be superb.  It has held the Cavs to just 97.4 points per 100 possessions through two games.  The Cavs came into the NBA Finals averaging 120 points per 100 possessions thus far in the playoffs.  The Warriors have allowed just 98.8 points per 100 possessions through the playoffs to this point.

Cleveland is 18-3 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Warriors last 26 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER would be 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series with a total set of 218 or higher, and this total is 227.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Wednesday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -133

The Atlanta Braves have lost the first two games of this series to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 here tonight, and they should get it due to their massive edge on the mound in this one.

Mike Foltynewicz is 3-5 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.329 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA in his last three outings.  He pitched seven shutout innings while striking out 10 in his last start at Cincinnati on June 2nd.  He is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last two starts against Philadelphia, yielding just two earned runs in 12 innings.

Jerad Eickhoff has gone 0-6 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  That's right, he's still looking for his first win of the year.  He has been even worse of late, going 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last three starts.

Foltynewicz is 8-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Phillies are 0-7 in Eickhoff's last seven road starts.  Philly is 0-4 in Eickhoff's last four road starts at Atlanta.  Roll with the Braves Wednesday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -129

The St. Louis Cardinals have now lost five straight games.  They''ll be highly motivated for a win Wednesday, especially after losing 13-1 to the Reds yesterday in which they watched Scooter Gennett hit 4 homers with 10 RBIs in a single game.

Look for Lance Lynn to get the Cardinals back in the win column today.  Lynn has gone 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He is also 9-4 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Reds.  He has won his last two starts against them while giving up just one earned run in 12 innings.

Bronson Arroyo is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has gone 3-4 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Arroyo is also 8-18 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in 39 career starts against St. Louis.  He is 0-3 with a 6.82 ERA in his last five starts against St. Louis, yielding 24 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings.

Arroyo is 1-8 against the money line in his last nine starts against the Cardinals.  St. Louis is 34-13 off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 42-19 in their last 61 games after losing the first two games of a series.  St. Louis is 11-4 in Lynn's last 15 starts vs. Cincinnati.  Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -123

The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have now lost four straight after getting swept by the Cubs and losing Game 1 of this series to the Reds.  This is a great value play with how well Adam Wainwright has been pitching of late.

Indeed, Wainwright is 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA in his last four starts.  He has allowed just one earned run in 26 1/3 innings in those four starts.  He actually has more RBI's himself than runs allowed during this stretch.  Look for Wainwright to stop the bleeding here today for the Cardinals.

Tim Adleman is 3-2 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in four home starts.  Adleman is also 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA in three career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 39-12 in Wainwright's last 51 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 42-16 in Wainwright's last 58 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Red s are 1-6 in their last seven games following a win.  Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers +111

The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They actually lead the NL Central with a 30-27 record right now after beating the Dodgers 3-0 yesterday.  And now they are showing tremendous value again as home dogs to the 23-35 San Francisco Giants Monday.

Speaking of underrated, Junior Guerra doesn't get the respect he deserves.  After going 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 20 starts last season for the Brewers, Guerra has been dominant again in 2017 after returning from injury.  He has gone 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in three starts.

Jeff Samardzija is 1-7 with a 4.62 ERA in 11 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 4.87 ERA in six road starts.  Samardzija has never beaten the Brewers, going 0-5 with a 4.87 ERA in 10 career starts against them.  His teams are 1-9 in those 10 starts.

San Francisco is 1-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  Guerra is 7-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last two seasons.  The Brewers are 8-1 in Guerra's last nine starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Brewers Monday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Warriors UNDER 221

Oddsmakers continue to set the totals too high when the Warriors and Cavs get together.  They adjusted down to 221 for Game 2, but it's simply not low enough.  These teams know each other all too well after playing in three straight NBA Finals, and that familiarity makes points harder to come by.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to Game 1 of the NBA Finals last season.  The Cavs and Warriors have combined for 217 or fewer points in all 10 of those games, which is a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 221.  They have averaged just 204.0 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is 17 points less than this total.

The Warriors are 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  They held the Cavs to just 34.9% shooting in Game 1 and won't let off the gas here in Game 2.  The Cavs have stepped up their defense in the playoffs and actually played well on that end in Game 1, limiting the Warriors to 42.5% shooting.

Cleveland is 9-1 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Cavs are 10-1 to the UNDER vs. a team with a winning percentage above 70% over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 48% of their shots or better over the last three years.  The UNDER is 9-1-2 in the last 12 meetings at Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +118

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep Sunday after losing the first two games of this series to the Houston Astros.  This underdog price is too good to pass up today given the situation.

Martin Perez has posted a 4.19 ERA in 11 starts this season, including a 4.14 ERA in seven home starts.  He's consistently undervalued, and he owns the Astros.  Perez is 5-3 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in nine career starts against Houston.

Brad Peacock is no more than a fill-in starter for the Astros who spends most of his time coming out of the bullpen.  Peacock gave up four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Minnesota Twins, and he'll be making just his third start of the season today.

Perez is 8-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in June games in his career having never lost.  The Astros are 0-6 in Peacock's last six starts during game 3 of a series.  The Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Astros are 14-38 in their last 52 meetings in Texas.  Take the Rangers Sunday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110)

The Cleveland Indians have been basically automatic with Carlos Carrasco on the mound this season.  They have gone 8-2 in his 10 starts, including 5-0 in his five road starts.  Carrasco is clearly the ace of this staff right now.

Look for the Indians to be highly motivated after getting shut out by the Royals yesterday.  Carrasco is 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in five road starts.  Carrasco is also 7-4 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 14 career starts against Kansas City.

Jason Hammel has been the worst starter for the Royals this season.  He is 1-6 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  And Hammel has struggled against the Indians, going 1-3 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in six career starts against them.

The Indians are 20-5 in Carrasco's last 25 road starts vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.  They are winning by 2.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Royals are 1-5 in Hammel's last six home starts, and 0-4 in his last four starts overall.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -128

The Boston Red Sox are killing the ball right now.  They have scored at least four runs in nine of their last 11 games overall while going 8-3 in the process.  They have scored at least six runs in six of those games as well.

Look for them to hang a big number on Baltimore's Alec Asher, who is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in three starts this season.  Asher has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Rick Porcello won the Cy Young last year.  He has been at his best on the road this season, going 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in four starts.  He has posted a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts against the Orioles, giving up just five earned runs in 23 innings.

The Red Sox are 14-2 in Porcello's last 16 starts during game 2 of a series.  Boston is 7-2 in Porcello's last nine road starts.  The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 1-7 in their last eight vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Red Sox Friday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors have waited basically a full calendar year for their shot at revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They blew a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals and lost a tight Game 7 at the wire.  They will get their revenge in this series, starting with Game 1 Thursday night.

The Warriors have upgraded their team since last season, adding a Top 5 player in Kevin Durant, making them virtually unstoppable.  They now have four All-Stars against Cleveland's three in James, Love and Irving.  And the Warriors still have good depth with Andre Iguodala, Ian Clark, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, Shaun Livingtston, David West and Patrick McCaw all playing significant minutes.

The difference in this series is defense.  The Warriors ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season, while the Cavs ranked 22nd.  And the Warriors have 'Lebron stoppers' in Green and Iguodala, plus Thompson and Durant can hold their own against James when asked to.  No team is better equipped to stop Lebron than Golden State is.

Golden State is now 27-1 SU in its last 28 games, and 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall.  The Warriors have won nine straight games by double-digits in these players.  The Cavs come from the weak East, and even benefited from injuries the past two series to the opposing team's best players in Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas.  They will get exposed in Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +118

The Colorado Rockies have lost each of their first three games in this series with the Seattle Mariners.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 4, and I look for them to do just that due to their edge on the mound this afternoon.

Kyle Freeland has gone 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.321 WHIP in five road starts.  The Mariners are hitting just .240 and scoring 3.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

Yovani Gallardo is 2-5 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in 10 starts this season, 1-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in five home starts, and 1-2 with an 8.81 ERA and 1.957 WHIP in his last three outings overall.  Gallardo has never beaten the Rockies, going 0-5 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.

Colorado is 5-0 in Freeland's last five road starts.  The Rockies are 12-2 after scoring 2 runs or less this season.  The Mariners are 1-4 in Gallardo's last five starts.  Take the Rockies Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs have now lost five straight games and are highly motivated for a victory.  A loss today would mean they would get swept in two straight series, and they have now dipped below .500 for the season.  This team is simply too talented to keep struggling this badly.

Look for Jake Arrieta to get them out of the funk tonight and pitch a gem against the Padres.  Arrieta has a 4.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in his last three starts with 20 strikeouts in 18 innings.  The right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in his last two starts against San Diego, giving up just one earned run and 10 base runners in 14 innings.

Luis Perdomo has been one of the worst starters in baseball for the Padres.  He is 0-2 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in five starts at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Arrieta is 19-3 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are winning these games by an average of 2.9 runs per game.  Arrieta is 20-3 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are winning by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line.

15* Nationals/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

AT&T Park in San Francisco is usually a pitcher's park, but it certainly won't be tonight.  The wind is expected to be blowing out to straightaway center at a whopping 21 MPH come game time.  Runs will be plentiful tonight as a result.

And it's not like Gio Gonzalez and Jeff Samardzija are aces.  They are two starters on the downside of their career.  Gonzalez has a 4.74 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in four road starts this season.  Samardzija is 1-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 10 starts this year.

Samardzija has really been battered in recent starts against the Nationals.  He is 0-3 with a 7.00 ERA in his last three starts against them, giving up 14 earned runs and four homers over 18 innings of work.

Washington is 18-8 tot he OVER in night games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Gonzalez's last seven road starts.  The OVER is 5-0 in Gonzalez's last five starts when working on four days of rest.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -140

The Chicago Cubs have lost four straight games to open their 6-game West Coast trip.  They  have gone 1-for-24 with runners in scoring position during their four-game skid, and that's clearly not going to continue.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

Eddie Butler is making a strong bid to remain in the Cubs' rotation, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA while allowing just three runs over 14 innings in his first three outings.  He'll be opposed by Dinelson Lamet, who will be making just his second career start for the Padres.

The Cubs are 38-14 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Padres are 17-36 in their last 53 games following a win.  Chicago is 5-1 in its last six games in San Diego.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Astros/Twins OVER 9

The Astros and Twins combined for 24 runs yesterday as Houston blew it open late with a 16-8 victory.  I expect another high-scoring affair tonight in Minnesota because of the wind conditions.  In fact, the wind is expected to be blowing 14 MPH out to straightaway center come game time.

Mike Fiers has been the weakest link in Houston's rotation.  He is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in nine starts, including 1-0 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in five road starts.  Fiers has allowed 8 runs and 4 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Minnesota.

Joe Berrios is off to a tremendous start for the Twins this season, but it is a small sample size with only three starts.  And now he's up against a red hot Houston lineup.  Berrios is 1-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 2.319 WHIP in two career starts against the Astros.

Minnesota is 32-11 OVER when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 5-1 in Astros last six road games.  The OVER is 49-17-4 in Twins last 70 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125)

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory after getting embarrassed by the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend.  Not only were they swept, they were outscored 18-4 in the process.  It has clearly left a bad taste in their mouth.

Now they get to take on one of the worst teams in baseball in the San Diego Padres, who are 19-33 on the season and scoring just 3.4 runs per game, including 3.0 per game at home.  Jarred Cosart is 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in four starts this season.  Cosart allowed 7 runs in 1 2/3 innings of a 2-7 loss to the Cubs in his only career start against them.

Cy Young winner Kyle Hendricks gets the ball looking to build on his 4-2 record with a 3.25 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in four road starts.  Hendricks has never lost to the Padres, going 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in five career starts against them.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.