20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -125

The Tampa Bay Rays are 11-0 this season with 10 wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.5 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 1.8 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. They have hit more home runs (29) than runs allowed (20) on the season.  The Rays improve to 12-0 this season when they host the Boston Red Sox for Game 3 of this series tonight.

The only reason the Rays are a short favorite today is because they are going with an opener in Taj Bradley.  But that's not a problem as they have the deepest bullpen in the majors which is why they have no problem deploying an opener.

I'll gladly fade Chris Sale, who is a shell of his former self due to injury.  Sale has posted an 11.25 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings.  Sale has allowed 10 runs, 6 earned and 20 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rays.

Sale is 1-10 (-12.7 Units) against the money line vs. a AL team with a slugging percentage of .440 or better in his career.  Tampa Bay is the gift that keeps on giving.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* Mariners/Cubs Interleague Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 11

The wind was blowing out yesterday at Wrigley and the Mariners and Cubs combined for 23 runs.  It will be more of the same today with a similar forecast calling for temperatures in the 70's with over 20 MPH winds blowing out to center.

Marcus Stroman is off to a great start this season which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Logan Gilbert also tends to get some respect from the books.  Both are quality starters, but neither stands a chance of keeping the ball in the park with the forecast.

The OVER is 14-3 in Gilbert's last 17 road starts following a team loss.  The OVER is 22-7-1 in Mariners last 30 interleague road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 232.5

Playoff intensity defense is a different animal.  Teams go all regular season without playing much defense especially this season.  But it will be different in the playoffs, and I think we get some inflated totals early on we can take advantage of by backing UNDERS.  This is one of those totals.

The Lakers were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA after the All-Star Break.  The Timberwolves were great defensively down the stretch to try and get into the playoffs, allowing 108 or fewer points in five of their last eight games overall.

This has been an UNDER series.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 228 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings, including 213 or fewer in five of the seven.  This 232.5-point total has been set too high based on series history, plus when you factor in this game will be played with playoff-intensity defense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Giants OVER 8

The forecast will help us cash this OVER ticket between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants tonight.  Temperatures will be in the 50's with whopping 25 MPH winds blowing out to center at Oracle Park tonight.

Dustin May and Alex Wood aren't good enough to keep this total from flying over.  Wood allowed 6 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Dodgers.  May has faced the Diamondbacks twice this season and he is not as good as his numbers suggest.

The OVER is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last four games overall with combined scores of 9, 20, 17 and 10 runs.  The OVER is 5-2 in Giants last seven games overall with combined scores of 10 runs or more five times.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Twins OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket tonight.  Temperatures will be in the 80's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left at Target Field in Minnesota tonight.  These are two very good offenses who will easily combine to top this 7.5-run total given the forecast.

The Twins are capable of covering this OVER on their own.  Lance Lynn is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in two starts this season allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings.  Lynn is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins, allowing 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings.  All three starts came last season as well.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in White Sox last nine games overall with combined scores of 9 runs or more in eight of those 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Twins -147

I expect the Minnesota Twins to bounce back from their Game 1 loss to the White Sox tonight.  They have a big advantage on the mound and lost to Chicago ace Dylan Cease last night.  Now they take a big step down in class of opposing starting pitcher as Cease is the only reliable starter the White Sox have.

Lance Lynn is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in two starts this season allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings.  Lynn is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Twins, allowing 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings.  All three starts came last season as well.

Pablo Lopez was a great get for the Twins in the offseason as he was part of the Marlins' underrated rotation.  Lopez went 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  He is 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.730 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing just one earned runs and 9 base runners in 12 1/3 innings with 16 K's.

The White Sox are 0-5 in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Twins Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -165

The Tampa Bay Rays are 10-0 this season with nine wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.6 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 1.8 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. The Rays improve to 11-0 this season when they host the Boston Red Sox for Game 2 of this series tonight.

Shane McClanahan went 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 28 starts last season with 194 K's in 166 1/3 innings.  He has picked up where he left off, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in two starts this season allowing just 2 earned runs in 12 innings.  He owns the Red Sox, going 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Garrett Whitlock will be making his first start of the season.  He only pitched 5 innings in spring training and is behind to start the season.  Now he has to face the hottest lineup in baseball here in the Rays and I don't expect it to go well for him.

Boston is 1-11 in its last 12 games after scoring one run or fewer in a division loss.  Tampa Bay is 44-13 in its last 57 games as a favorite of -150 or more.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

15* Dodgers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket between the Dodgers and Giants tonight.  There is expected to be 18 MPH winds blowing out to center tonight at Oracle Park in San Francisco.

That's why I'm willing to back an OVER in a game involving Julio Urias, who is one of the best starters in baseball.  But the Dodgers are more than capable of covering this OVER on their own against Logan Webb and the Giants.

Webb has allowed 12 earned runs in 15 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  The Giants have a 5.40 bullpen ERA this season.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game.  The Dodgers are scoring 6.0 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game.

The Dodgers are 15-4 OVER in their last 19 games after allowing 8 runs or more.  San Francisco is 16-5 OVER in its last 21 games after a combined score of 4 runs or less.  The OVER is 6-0 in Dodgers last six games following a loss.  The OVER is 12-5 in Giants last 17 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Angels OVER 9.5

It just shows how poor the Washington Nationals are this season when Patrick Corbin is their Opening Day starter.  Corbin went 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 2021 and 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 2022.

It has been more of the same for Corbin to open 2023.  He is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in two starts this season allowing 8 earned runs and 20 base runners in 9 innings.  He'll get rocked by the Angels again tonight.

Los Angeles has one of the most potent lineups in baseball and is scoring 6.2 runs per game on the season, including 7.7 runs per game at home.  But the Angels have a shaky pitching staff outside of Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Anderson.  They are allowing 4.6 runs per game including 7.0 runs per game at home.  Their bullpen has a 4.45 ERA on the season.

Jose Suarez was rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of an 11-2 loss to the Mariners in his first start this season.  Now he faces a Nationals team that has scored 7.7 runs per game in their last three games overall.  The Nationals will get their runs to help contribute to this OVER, and the Angels are capable of covering it on their own after scoring 20 runs in their last two games over the weekend.  

The forecast will also help us cash this OVER ticket.  It will be 70 degrees in Los Angeles tonight with 8 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Nationals last seven games overall.  The OVER is 22-9-2 in Nationals last 33 interleague home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +120

The San Diego Padres are 6-2 in their last eight games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in seven of those eight games.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball, and I don't think they should be underdogs to the New York Mets tonight.

Father time catches up to everyone, and this might just be the year it catches up to Max Scherzer.  He is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 1/3 innings.

Yu Darvish is coming off a great season in San Diego and was sharp in his first start this season, allowing just one earned run in 5 innings to the Diamondbacks.  Darvish owns the Mets having never lost to them, going 6-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.754 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  

Scherzer allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Padres and has now allowed 14 earned runs and 7 homers in 16 innings in his last three starts against them.  Bet the Padres Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -110

The Philadelphia Phillies are really struggling to start the season.  They are 3-6 and scoring just 3.3 runs per game with a depleted lineup, and allowing 5.8 runs per game with one of the worst staffs in the National League.  Their bullpen has a 6.75 ERA on the season and is one of the worst bullpens in the league.

The Marlins have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Sandy Alcantara over Matt Strahm.  Alcantara won the NL Cy Young last season while going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.980 WHIP with 207 K's.  He is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two starts this season allowing just 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.

Matt Strahm is getting his first real crack at being a starter this season and isn't likely to go deep into this game.   That will lead the Marlins to getting into Philly's woeful bullpen early.  Strahm allowed 7 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone career start against the Marlins.

The Marlins are 10-0 in Alcantara's 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record over the alst two seasons and winning by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Marlins Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -150

The Tampa Bay Rays are 9-0 this season with all nine wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 8.3 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.0 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

The Rays improve to 10-0 this season when they host the Boston Rd Sox for Game 1 of this series Monday.  The Red Sox have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball and are allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.

Nick Pivetta is 40-51 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.390 WHIP in his career.  Pivetta is 1-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.366 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay.  He posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.981 WHIP in the spring allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 35 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  Bet the Rays Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money.  That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 9-2 SU & 8-2- ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming up clutch again.

Now the Pelicans have a lot to play for here to try and either move up in the play-in and possibly get a Top 5 seed if everything breaks their way, or at the very least lock in a Top 8 spot with a win over the Timberwolves here.  I trust them much more than the Timberwolves, who are still trying to form some chemistry with all the new pieces.

Minnesota will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 151-131 shootout win in San Antonio last night.  That puts them at a big disadvantage, and I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans as underdogs here after having yesterday off and with all that big game experience gained over the past couple seasons.

The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.  

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Timberwolves UNDER 227

Both Minnesota and New Orleans have a lot to play for today.  The winner will likely be the 8th seed while the loser will likely be the 9th seed.  There's a big difference between the 8th and 9th seed in the play-in round.  With so much at stake, defensive intensity in this game will be high.

The UNDER is 19-7 in Pelicans last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 12-2 in Pelicans last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Timberwolves last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Timberwolves last 15 home games.  Minnesota is 8-0 UNDER in home games following a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +140

The Milwaukee Brewers are overvalued after a 6-2 start this season.  The Cardinals finally ended their six-game winning streak while stopping a four-game losing streak of their own with a 6-0 victory yesterday.  And I like the value we are getting on the Cardinals today as big road underdogs.

Jake Woodford pitched 5 shutout innings while allowing only 3 base runners in a 2-1 win over the Brewers in his lone career start against them.  Freddy Peralta has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-4 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons have already locked up the worst record in the NBA and optimal odds to get the 1st pick in the draft.  They are no longer tanking to close out the season and trying to win these final couple games.  They pulled the 122-115 upset at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs last game, and I think they have a great shot to pull the upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Chicago today.

The Bulls have nothing to play for and are locked into the 10th seed.  They will be in the play-in round against the Raptors.  They are unlikely to play starters today as a result, and could care less about winning this game.  They should not be this big of favorites when they are unmotivated and just trying to get healthy going into the playoffs.

Chicago is 1-8 ATS in home games following two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-145)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 8-0 this season with all eight wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 8.0 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.2 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

The Rays continue taking advantage of their easy early schedule by hosting the Oakland A's for Game 3 of this series today.  The A's are 2-6 this season scoring just 3.4 runs per game and allowing 7.6 runs per game.  They have one of the worst lineups in baseball and a terrible staff as well.

Drew Rasmussen fired 6 shutout innings with 7 K's while allowing only two base runners in a 6-2 win at Washington in his first start this season.  He'll be opposed by James Kaprielian, who allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 12-11 loss to the Guardians in his first start this season.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Blue Jays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -115

The Los Angeles Angels should be much bigger favorites tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays considering the big advantage they have on the mound.  I'll gladly back Tyler Anderson over Jose Berrios at this short number.

Anderson went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 178 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last season.  He posted a 1.35 ERA in the spring while allowing just 2 earned runs and 12 base runners in 13 1/3 innings.  And he was dominant in his first tart this season pitching 6 shutout innings in a 6-0 victory over the A's.

Berrios is decent at home but terrible on the road throughout his career, especially last season.  Berrios posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 32 starts for the Blue Jays last season, including a 6.36 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 16 road starts.  He just allowed 8 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings at Kansas City in his first start this season, and the Royals aren't nearly as good an offensive team as the Angels.

Berrios is 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in seven career starts against the Angels.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Brewers +134

The Milwaukee Brewers are 6-0 in their last six games overall and should not be this big of a home underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals today.  The Brewers have scored a total of 39 runs in their last five games and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.

The St. Louis Cardinals are 0-4 in their last four games overall while scoring a total of 7 runs in those four defeats.  The Cardinals may have a slight advantage on the mound with Montgomery over Lauer in this one, but I think the Brewers make up for it at the plate with as hot as they have been compared to how cold the Cardinals have been.

The Brewers are 15-5 in Lauer's last 20 starts following a win in their previous game.  Montgomery's teams are 5-11 (-13.2 Units) in his last 16 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more.  Bet the Brewers Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-135)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 7-0 this season with all seven wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.6 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.6 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

The Rays continue taking advantage of their easy early schedule by hosting the Oakland A's for Game 2 of this series tonight.  The A's are 2-5 this season scoring just 3.9 runs per game and allowing 7.1 runs per game.  They have one of the worst lineups in baseball and a terrible staff as well.

Jeffrey Springs went 9-5 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 135 1/3 innings last season.  He pitched 14 shutout innings in spring training while allowing only seven base runners with 24 K's.  He allowed one base runner in 6 innings with 12 K's in a dominant first start against the Tigers this season.

Shintaro Fujinami was rocked for 8 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a 13-1 loss to the Angels in his major league debut this season.  He struggles with control which was evident in the spring with 17 walks in 18 2/3 innings.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -8

The New York Knicks are locked into the 5th seed in the East and will play the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.  They could care less about winning these last two games.  Their three best players will sit tonight in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett.  They won't be competitive as a result.

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for still trying to get a Top 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are tied with the Lakers for 7th, one game back of both the Warriors and Clippers, and one game ahead of the Timberwolves.

The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money.  That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming up clutch again.  Now they will make easy work of the short-handed, unmotivated Knicks tonight.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors ML +105

The Boston Celtics are locked into the 2nd seed in the East and have nothing to play for.  There's a good chance they rest all their starters tonight.  They should not be favored over the Toronto Raptors as a result.

The Toronto Raptors are still battling for play-in positioning in the East one game behind the Hawks for the 8th seed.  There's a big difference between the 8th and 9th seeds.  I'll gladly side with the more motivated team tonight to win this game outright as an underdog.

The Raptors have saved their best basketball for last as they are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with three of those losses coming to the top three teams in the East in the Bucks, 76ers and Celtics all by 7 points or fewer.  Toronto is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-130)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 6-0 this season with all six wins by 4 runs or more.  They are scoring 7.3 runs per game with an underrated offense, and allowing 2.2 runs per game with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

The Rays continue taking advantage of their easy early schedule by hosting the Oakland A's for Game 1 of this series tonight.  The A's are 2-4 this season scoring just 3.7 runs per game and allowing 6.8 runs per game.  They have one of the worst lineups in baseball and a terrible staff as well.

Zach Eflin held the Tigers to one earned run in 5 innings of a 12-2 victory in his first start this season.  Eflin fired 4 shutout innings against the A's in his lone career start against them last season.  Ken Waldichuk allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings in his first start this season against the Angels in a 6-0 defeat.  Waldichuk has now allowed at least 4 earned runs in four of his last six starts dating back to last season.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Friday.

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Heat are still playing to try to avoid the play-in round or at the very least earn the 7th seed which will give them the advantage in the play-in round. They are 1.5 games behind the Nets for 6th and 1.5 games ahead of the Hawks for 7th.

While this game means something to the Heat, it means absolutely nothing to the 76ers. They are locked into the 3rd seed in the East. Don't be surprised if they rest their starters over the final three games as a result. At the very least, they won't be motivated to win these games.

Miami is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia winning its last two trips to Philly outright as underdogs. Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants/White Sox OVER 8

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket between the Giants and White Sox today. Temps will be in the 50's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago this afternoon.

Alex Wood and Lance Lynn are both past their primes. The White Sox have gone for at least 9 combined runs in five consecutive games and are 5-0 OVER in those five games. The Giants have gone for 10 or more combined runs in three of their last four games and are 3-1 OVER during this stretch.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings in Chicago. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Tigers OVER 8

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket this afternoon. Temps will be in the 50's in Detroit with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.

Chris Sale is a shell of his former self due to injury. He allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 innings against the Orioles in his first start this season.

Spencer Turnbull is a gas can for the Tigers. He allowed 7 earned runs and 11 base runners in 2 2/3 innings to the Rays in his first start this season.

The OVER is 6-0 in Red Sox last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Lakers/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232

The Lakers and Clippers are tied for the 6th and 7th spots in the West. The 6th will avoid the play-in round, while the 7th won't so there is a lot at stake here. These teams hate each other as it is, and I expect the defensive intensity to be very high in this one.

The Lakers have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break. The Clippers have been one of the better defensive teams in the NBA all season. This is a very high total considering what is at stake here.

The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Lakers last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 30-13 in Clippers last 43 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-140)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 5-0 this season and scoring 7.4 runs per game. The Washington Nationals are 1-4 this season and scoring just 3.0 runs per game. The Rays should win this game by two runs or more today given their big advantage on the mound.

Shane McClanahan went 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 28 starts last season. He had a 0.93 ERA and 0.724 WHIP in the spring. He pitched 6 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory over the Tigers in his first start this season.

Pat Corbin was one of the worst starters in baseball last season and it just shows how poor a shape the Nationals are in this season with him being their Opening Day starter. Corbin went 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 31 starts last season. He allowed 4 runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings in his opening start against the Braves.

The Nationals are 4-24 in Corbin's last 28 starts as an underdog of +100 or higher and losing by 3.9 runs per game. Washington is 2-18 in Corbin's last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 3.5 runs per game. Bet the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Nationals OVER 8.5

Pat Corbin was one of the worst starters in baseball last season and it just shows how poor a shape the Nationals are in this season with him being their Opening Day starter. Corbin went 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 31 starts last season. He allowed 4 runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings in his opening start against the Braves.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 5-0 this season and scoring 7.4 runs per game. I think the Rays are capable of covering this total on their own like they did last night in a 10-6 victory over the Nationals.

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER ticket. Temperatures will be in the 80's this afternoon with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left-center. The Nationals will score a couple runs to help cash this OVER ticket as well. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (-105)

The new MLB rule changes favor teams with speed, contact hitting and fewer strikeouts. No team benefited more from the rule changes than the Cleveland Guardians. That is showing up in the early going as they are 4-1 this season and scoring 5.8 runs per game.

The Guardians have a big advantage on the mound over the Oakland A's, who are 1-3 and scoring just 3.5 runs per game. Shane Bieber is 54-26 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his career in the big leagues. Bieber had a 1.54 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in the Spring while allowing only 4 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. He fired 6 shutout innings agains the Mariners in his first start this season.

JP Sears is the 5th starter for the A's this season. He posted a 4.69 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in Oakland last season allowing 25 earned runs in 48 innings. Sears posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in the Spring allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings.

Bieber's teams are 10-0 in his last 10 road starts after he allowed zero earned runs in his previous start and winning by 2.7 runs per game in this spot. Bet the Guardians on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls have saved their best basketball for last coming up clutch to not only make the playoffs, but to also try and improve their seeding. Now they have a chance to change spots with the Atlanta Hawks and move up again, and I think they take advantage with a blowout victory at home.

The Bulls are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are coming off a pair of blowout wins by 30 at Charlotte and by 21 at home over Memphis. They have won two of their three meetings with the Hawks with their lone loss coming by a single point at the buzzer.

The Hawks have been trading wins and losses and are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. They are without De'Andre Hunter (15.4 PPG) and Trae Young (26.2 PPG, 9.9 APG) tonight.

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Hawks are 18-41 ATS in their last 59 games following a win. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season just to make the playoffs and then gave the Phoenix Suns a run for their money in the playoffs. They are coming up clutch again this season, and that experience from last season is really helping them.

The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven wins by 8 points or more and six of them by double-digits. Their lone loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

The Sacramento Kings are starting to feel the pressure of trying to win the Pacific Division. They are also just kind of going through the motions right now essentially locked into the 3rd seed in the West. They just lost outright at home to the Spurs are 16-point favorites. This young team is not used to the pressure of playoff basketball and will not handle it as well as the Pelicans will tonight.

The Pelicans are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Kings with all three wins in blowouts by 32, 14 and 30 points. New Orleans is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% or higher this season. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Cardinals OVER 10

The Braves and Cardinals have two of the most potent lineups in baseball. The Cardinals are scoring 6.5 runs per game this season while the Braves are scoring 5.7 runs per game.

Two bottom end starters in Dylan Dodd and Steven Matz will have to try and contain these potent lineups. They'll also have to try and contain them with the weather being perfect conditions for a slug fest.

Indeed, forecasts are calling for 80 degrees with over 20 MPH winds blowing out to left in St. Louis. The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in St. Louis. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Royals OVER 10

Two gas cans are starting for the Blue Jays and Royals tonight. Yusei Kikuchi is 21-31 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.424 WHIp in his career. Kris Bubic is 10-26 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his career.

These two starts will have no chance of containing these lineups today due to the weather. Temps will be in the 80's with 24 MPH winds blowing out to left at Kauffman Stadium tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back all season, especially of late. They continue to fly under the radar as this is a young, talented team with a very bright future and they continue showing up on a nightly basis.

The Magic are 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over the Knicks and Clippers. They were even competitive in all three losses losing by 3 at Phoenix, by 6 at the Lakers and by 5 at Memphis.

The Magic can stay within 5.5 of the Cavaliers at home tonight and possibly pull off the upset. Cleveland is just 18-21 SU on the road this season. They are kind of going through the motions right now basically locked into the 4th seed in the East. They are 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall losing at Atlanta, losing by 16 at home to the Knicks and only beating the depleted Pacers by 10 as 12-point home favorites. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Yankees OVER 8.5

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 3-1 OVER in their first four games this season with 9 or more combined runs in three of the four and allowing 37 runs in four games. The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in all four games this season while averaging 6.0 runs per game.

Two bottom end starters go today in Matt Strahm and Domingo German. Strahm is making his transition from bullpen to starter this season and it won't go well against the potent Yankees. German has been inconsistent and had an 8.71 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in the spring while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 1/3 innings.

German is 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in two career starts against the Phillies, allowing 9 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. The Yankees are 15-1 OVER in their last 16 games vs. NL teams that average 3.5 or fewer runs per game. The OVER is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings in New York. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SDSU/UConn Championship Game No-Brainer on UConn -7

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 15th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while COVERING those five games by an average of 16.1 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite, by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite and by 13 over Miami as a 5.5-point favorite. We are witnessing one of the greatest teams in NCAA Tournament history.

San Diego State is lucky to be here.  The Aztecs snuck by Charleston in the opener, and they became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite 8 and Final 4 games by a single point each.  They needed a 14-point comeback against FAU in the 2H to win that game and never led in the 2H until the buzzer.  FAU gave up a five offensive rebounds on free throws alone to give the game away.

Well, UConn won't have a problem keeping San Diego State off the glass.  The Huskies rank 2nd in offensive rebounding and 63rd in allowing offensive rebounds.  San Diego State ranks 76th in offensive rebounding and 68th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Huskies will win the battle on the boards.

But the biggest advantage the Huskies have here is at guard, where their guards are elite and the Aztecs come up short in that department.  Matt Bradley has been hit or miss and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  Their poor shooting is a big reason the Aztecs rank just 218th in effective field goal percentage offense.  These guards and San Diego State in general have a lot of heart, but unfortunately they don't have the talent to match that of the Huskies.

I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with four wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So those four teams shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  FAU shot a more reasonable 9-of-22 (40.9%) against them and are a good shooting team like UConn that can spread you out with four good shooters on the court at all times.  The Huskies have made at least nine 3-pointers in all five Tournament games and shoot 36.3% from 3 on the season.

UConn is 16-0 SU & 15-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  It's clear the Big East was a lot better than it got credit for as the Huskies have destroyed everyone outside the conference.  It will be more of the same against the overmatched Aztecs as the Huskies pull off yet another dominant win in the Championship Game.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Cardinals OVER 8

The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals have two of the best lineups in baseball. The Braves scored 15 runs in three games with the Nationals over the weekend, while the Cardinals scored 22 runs in their three games with the Blue Jays over the weekend.

Charlie Morton went 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA in 31 starts for the Braves last season and is past his prime. He allowed 28 homers in 172 innings and is a notorious slow starter to the season. Morton has posted a 6.00 ERA in the spring while allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings.

Jake Woodford is entering his first full season as a starter for the Cardinals. This is a tall task for him to open the season against this potent Atlanta lineup.

The Braves are 10-1 OVER in Morton's last 11 starts following a loss. The OVER is 26-9-3 in Braves last 38 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in St. Louis. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Red Sox OVER 9

The Boston Red Sox are a dead nuts OVER team. They went OVER the total in all three meetings with the Orioles at Fenway Park over the weekend with 19, 17 and 14 combined runs in the three games. They have a very good lineup but a terrible rotation and bullpen.

The Pirates have a bad lineup and a bad rotation, but even they will get their bats going today largely due to the weather. The forecast is calling for temps in the 50's with 17 MPH winds blowing out toward the Green Monster in left-center at Fenway Park tonight.

Johan Ovieda has a 4.34 ERA and 1.427 WHIP in his three seasons in the big leagues across 143 innings. Oviedo posted a 4.58 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings in Spring Training. Kutter Crawford has a 5.90 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 79 1/3 innings in the big leagues. Crawford has allowing 8 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings for a 4.15 ERA in Spring Training. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Yankees OVER 7.5

The New York Yankees have one of the most potent lineups in baseball. The just scored 5 runs or more in all three games with the Giants over the weekend. The Phillies are still potent even with their current injury situation, and their staff is clearly a weakness allowing 29 runs in three games against the Rangers over the weekend.

Nestor Cortes is a solid starter, but this total is too low because he is starting. Taijuan Walker is decent as well, but he was rocked for a 7.71 ERA and 1.929 WHIP while allowing 8 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in the spring. Aaron Judge has four career hits against Walker, all of which have gone for home runs. He has allowed 6 homers in 17 innings in his last three starts against the Yankees.

The main reason for this play is the weather, which is calling for temps in the 50's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Yankee Stadium tonight. The ball will be flying out of this hitter-friendly park. The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in New York. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -112

The Chicago Cubs are coming off consecutive losses to the Milwaukee Brewers at home.  I look for the Cubs to bounce back today in Game 1 of this series against the Cincinnati Reds, who are coming off consecutive home wins over the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound today with Drew Smyly.  The left-hander went 7-8 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 22 starts for the Cubs last season.  Smyly has never lost to the Reds, going 5-0 (7-0 money line) with a 2.91 ERA and 1.118 WHIP on seven career starts against them.

Connor Overton was terrible in the spring for the Reds.  He posted a 15.43 ERA and 2.486 WHIP while allowing 20 earned runs and 6 homers in 11 2/3 innings.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

This total is lower than it should be due to Denver coming off consecutive sub-par offensive showings while playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and playing without some of their best players.  Well, the Nuggets should have all hands on deck tonight with the possible return of Nikola Jokic.  I think it goes OVER the total whether or not he plays.

The Warriors rank 1st in the NBA in pace making them a dead nuts OVER team.  They are in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency and the in the bottom half in defensive efficiency.  They take on a Nuggets team that ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, which has been the key to their amazing season to this point.

Each of the two previous meetings this season between the Warriors and Nuggets were shootouts.  They combined for 251 points in their first meeting and 251 points again in their second meeting.  It should be more of the same in this third and final meeting Sunday.

The OVER is 40-13 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 20-8 in Nuggets last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season to the Boston Celtics when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have no had the last two days off to rest and recover and will come back pissed off after that defeat.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Bucks will be looking for revenge from a 130-133 home loss to Philadelphia on March 4th in their most recent meeting.  It's a much worst spot for the 76ers, who will be playing their 6th game in 10 days.

The Bucks are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss and haven't lost consecutive games since January 12-14.  The Bucks only lead the Celtics by 1.5 games for 1st place in the East so they have no margin for error, also adding to their motivation.

Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS following an upset loss as a favorite this season.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -15.5

The Sacramento Kings are still looking to improve their playoff positioning as they trail the Grizzlies by two games for 2nd place in the West.  They are handling their business right now beating the Blazers by 40 and 24 points in their last two games.  Now they get another Western Conference bottom feeder in the Spurs tonight, and the result should be the same.

The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and tanking to try and get the No. 1 pick.  That's evident by the fact that all six losses came by 11 points or more including a 35-point loss at New Orleans, a 36-point loss at Milwaukee and a 44-point loss at Boston during this stretch.  They are resting almost all of their best players right now and are playing as a G League team.

The Kings are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs.  San Antonio is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 road games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Angels -150

The Los Angeles Angels have a big advantage on the mound today.  Tyler Anderson went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 178 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last season.  Anderson psoted a 1.35 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in the spring allowing just 2 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings.  Anderson has never lost to the A's, going 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in three career starts against them allowing just 2 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Ken Waldichuck went 2-2 with a 4.93 ERA in 34 2/3 innings for the A's last season allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers as a rookie.  Waldichuk was a disaster in the spring, posting a 10.54 ERA and 2.268 WHIP while allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 31 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  The Angels just hung 13 runs on the A's yesterday and should stay hot at the plate against Waldichuk.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -16.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are battling to make the playoffs right now.  They are in 9th place in the West but just 2 games ahead of the Mavericks in 11th.  They have a great chance of improving their standing, and they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly today.

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now.  Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now.

The Blazers are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Eight of their last nine losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.6 points per game.  Their last three losses have come by 24, 40 and 34 points.  That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Timberwolves.

This is a big step down in class for the Timberwolves after playing 16 consecutive games against teams that would be in the playoffs or the play-in round if the season were to end today.  They have won four of their last six games including upset road wins over the Knicks, Warriors and Kings.  Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Portland.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -120

Jameson Taillon is one of the more underrated starters in baseball.  He went 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.128 WHIP for the Yankees last season.  The Cubs were wise to go out and get him.  Taillon is 3-5 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 11 career starts against Milwaukee.  He posted a 3.93 ERA and 0.764 WHIP in the spring while allowing just 8 earned runs and 14 base runners in 18 1/3 innings with 23 K's.

Eric Lauer really struggled in the spring for the Brewers with an 11.57 ERA and 2.486 WHIP while allowing 15 earned runs and 29 base runners in 11 2/3 innings.  Lauer has posted a 5.03 ERA in seven career starts against the Cubs.

Taillon's teams are 90-54 in his 144 career starts.  The Brewers are 0-6 in their last six games after allowing two runs or fewer in their previous game.  The Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight home games.  Chicago is 13-4 in its last 17 games overall.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -146

The Kansas City Royals haven't scored a single run in two games.  They have one of the worst lineups in baseball, and it's not going to get any easier for them against Joe Ryan today.

Ryan went 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 27 starts last season for the Twins.  Ryan has never lost to the Royals, going 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA an 0.833 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He posted a 2.16 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in the spring while allowing just 4 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Brad Keller posted a 5.39 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 26 starts in 2021 and wasn't much better in 2022, going 6-14 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.504 WHIP in 139 2/3 innings.  Keller has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 innings in his last two starts against Minnesota.  He posted a 4.95 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in the spring while allowing 11 earned runs in 20 innings.

The Royals are 1-11 in Keller's last 12 home starts following a loss.  The Twins are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Twins Sunday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-112)

The Atlanta Braves have won the first two games of this series 7-2 and 7-1.  It should be more of the same here in Game 3.  They have one of the most potent lineups in baseball, while the Nationals have one of the worst lineups in baseball after trading away Juan Soto last season.

Jared Shuster is just the next great young arm for the Braves.  He makes his MLB debut today after a dominant spring with a 1.45 ERA and 0.589 WHIP while allowing just 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 18 2/3 innings with 18 K's.

Mackenzie Gore went 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 70 innings for the Padres last season as a rookie.  Gore posted a 4.18 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in the spring while allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 33 base runners in 23 2/3 innings.

The Braves are 43-16 in the last 59 meetings.  The Nationals are 16-54 in their last 70 games as a home underdog of +125 or more and losing by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Miami/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 13th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while covering those four games by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite and by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite.

Miami needed a 9-point comeback in the final 5 minutes to beat Drake and a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes to beat Texas.  They did dominate both Houston and Indiana, and I take nothing away from them for those two victories.  No question Miami has the best trio of guards in this tournament, but opponents haven't exploited their biggest weakness, which is their defense, especially on the interior.

Drake, Indiana and Texas were all pretty weak on the interior at least defensively.  Texas was without its best big man in Dylan Disu, who was their best player dating back to the start of the NCAA Tournament.  UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound rate grabbing 38.5% of its own misses.  Miami ranks 104th in adjusted defense, 207th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 179th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Hurricanes will finally get punished for their defensive flaws in the Final 4.

Miami only has one productive big man in Norchad Omier, and he isn't going to be able to contain the three big men of UConn.  We saw how much Drew Timme struggled against them for Gonzaga and got into foul trouble and fouled out.  Omier will likely get into foul trouble in this one as UConn will keep attacking him with these big men, plus drives to the rim.  The Hurricanes are doomed if he gets in foul trouble, and probably doomed even if he doesn't as it's just too tall a task to ask of him to try and hang in the paint with UConn.  The Huskies are 28th in average height while the Hurricanes are 224th.

UConn is 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Clearly, the Big East was better than it got credit for this season.  The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here while Houston was an 8-point favorite over Miami.  Again, KenPom has the Huskies as the better team than Houston, so comparing past lines there's value here with the favorite.  Bet UConn in the Final 4 Saturday.

20* Clippers/Pelicans NBA No-Brainer on New Orleans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 2 games ahead of 11th place.  They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Pelicans are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

Speaking of running out of gas, the Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after losing 94-108 in Memphis last night.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Pelicans, who had yesterday off and will the fresher, more motivated team.  The Clippers are also without Paul George and Marcus Morris and are likely to be without Eric Gordon, who left the Memphis game with a hip injury.

The Pelicans simply own the Clippers, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings despite playing all three of those games on the road and pulling off two blowouts in upset wins as underdogs by 21 points each in their two meetings this season.  New Orleans is 40-17 ATS in the last 57 meetings, including 22-6 ATS in the last 28 home meetings.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* FAU/San Diego State Final 4 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +2

I said going into the tournament that the FAU/Memphis winner would make a run to the Elite 8.  That's how high I was on both teams.  After backing Memphis in the Round of 64 against FAU, I have been on the Owls ever since.  They were fortunate to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds against Memphis, and they have been riding that momentum and confidence ever since.

FAU was in a tough spot not being the cinderella against Fairleigh Dickinson, but managed to handle their business in a 78-70 victory.  They then came back and upset Tennessee 62-55, beating a Vols team that is very similar to this San Diego State squad.  And they made all the clutch free throws they needed to to hold off Kansas State in a 79-76 victory in the Elite 8.

FAU comes out of Conference USA, which is the best mid-major conference in the country.  That has been proven with C-USA teams going 17-1 SU in postseason tournaments this season.  Charlotte won the CBI, North Texas and UAB will play in the NIT Championship Game, and now FAU is in the Final 4.  The Owls have been more battle-tested than they get credit for playing in such a tough conference, and now with four consecutive wins in the NCAA Tournament to get here.

FAU has very few weaknesses.  They rank 24th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage offense and 15th in effective field goal percentage defense.  They have five players on the court at all times that can hit 3-pointers.  Their four guard lineups are tough to tame, and versatile big man Vladislav Goldin (10.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 62.7% FG's) is a matchup nightmare.  They go nine deep and all seven guards shoot at least 32.3% from 3, and four of the top five shoot at least 36.6% from 3.

A lot has been made about San Diego State's 3-point defense, but they haven't faced a team that can shoot it like FAU and is as versatile.  I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with three wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So the four teams they have faced have shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  I think their luck runs out against FAU.

Guard play wins in the tournament, and the Aztecs don't have the best guards.  Matt Bradley has been lost the last couple games and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  San Diego State is brutal on offense and goes on long scoring droughts, and one of those is going to be costly against FAU.  San Diego State ranks 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage on offense.

Florida Atlantic is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 10-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  The other three Mountain West teams all lost their first NCAA Tournament games and the MWC is now 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  All four wins belong to SDSU this tournament.  I'll gladly side with C-USA over MWC in this game as FAU is the better team in my opinion with fewer weaknesses and should not be the underdog.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Reds OVER 8.5

The weather is the main reason I'm on the OVER between the Pirates and Reds today.  The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is already one of the most hitter-friendly fields in baseball.  That is amplified today with winds blowing out to center at 25 MPH forecasted.

Rich Hill went 8-7 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.303 WHIP while allowing 15 homers in 124 1/3 innings for the Red Sox last season.  Hill posted a 9.24 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in spring training this season while allowing 13 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.

Nick Lodolo is a nice young prospect for the Reds after going 4-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 19 starts last season. But he allowed 13 homers in 103 1/3 innings and is susceptible to the long ball just like Hill. Lodolo allowed two homers in 16 2/3 innings in the spring.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in Pirates last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.  These are two young lineups with a lot of potential this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Royals UNDER 8.5

The wind was blowing out in Game 1 of this series between the Royals and Twins and they still managed just two combined runs in a 2-0 Minnesota victory.  Now the wind will be blowing in from left-center at roughly 11 MPH in Game 2 Saturday, and it should be another pitcher's duel as a result.

Sonny Gray owns the Royals going 7-2 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He faced them three times last season allowing just one earned run in 19 innings.  Jordan Lyles has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins.  He held them to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings in his lone start against them last season.

The UNDER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-133)

The Atlanta Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball and Spencer Strider is one of the best starters in baseball.  He went 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.995 WHIP last season with 202 K's in 131 2/3 innings and finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting.  He allowed only 7 homers all season and posted a 1.69 ERA while allowing just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in spring training.

The wind is going to be blowing out to right-center in Washington today at roughly 25 MPH, so keeping the ball down and missing bats like Strider does is going to be important.  He'll be up against one of the worst lineups in baseball in the Nationals, who traded away Juan Soto last year and are rebuilding.

Josiah Gray went 7-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 28 starts for the Nationals last season while allowing a whopping 38 homers in 148 2/3 innings.  He does not keep the ball down and is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is bad news for him and the Nationals today with the wind blowing out.

The Braves are 42-16 in the last 58 meetings.  The Nationals are 16-53 in their last 69 games as a home underdog of +125 or more and losing by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Cubs UNDER 6.5

This is mostly a bet on the UNDER due to weather.  Temperatures will be in the 30's with 29 MPH winds expected to be blowing in from left-center at Wrigley Field today.  It's going to be nearly impossible for either team to hit home runs in these conditions.  These are two below-average lineups as well.

Brandon Woodruff is 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Cubs.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.  Justin Steele is 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in eight career starts against Milwaukee.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 18 innings in his last three starts against the Brewers.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -15.5

The Golden State Warriors finally flipped the switch to playoff mode and are a dangerous team right now.  They have gone 4-1 in the last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  They are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest and motivated to avoid the play-in round of the playoffs.  They will not take the San Antonio Spurs lightly as a result.

The Spurs are clearly tanking right now.  They are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 35 at New Orleans, by 36 at Milwaukee, by 12 at Washington, by 44 at Boston and by 11 at home to Utah.  They have lost those five games by an average of 27.6 points per game, which is why I'm not scared to lay this big number with the Warriors.

The Spurs' injury report is laughable at this point with eight players on it.  They will be without Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan and are likely to rest Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Romeo Langford for injury management.  The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Andrew Wiggins, who has been out for a couple months now.

San Antonio is 1-12 ATS when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 0-7 ATS following four consecutive losses by 10 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 31-8 SU & 26-12-1 ATS at home this season.  The Spurs are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games.  The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -14.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now.  Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now.

The Blazers are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Seven of their last eight losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game.  That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers.  They beat the Blazers by 40 on Wednesday and by 17 in their two most recent meetings.  They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number.  I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing all these players.

The Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games with seven losses by double-digits.  The Blazers are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* Lakers/Timberwolves NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 232.5

The Los Angels Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing with playoff intensity as they are both trying to just get into the playoffs still.  That means the defensive intensity will be there, and I like the UNDER as a result.

The Timberwolves have struggled offensively getting Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert to mesh together.  They have scored just 99 points against the Warriors, 119 against the Kings and 100 against the Suns in their last three games.  But they have been elite defensively, allowing 96 to the Warriors, 115 to the Kings and 107 to the Suns which are three of the best offensive teams in the NBA.

The Lakers have also stepped it up defensively of late allowing 118 or fewer points in 14 consecutive games.  The UNDER is 8-5 in their last 13 games overall.  With the way these teams are playing right now, this number is simply too high.

That's especially the case when you look at the recent head-to-head history.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 228 or fewer points in all six and 213 or fewer in five of the six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -143

I'll back the defending champs to bounce back from an upset loss to the Chicago White Sox in their opener.  A lot of times that opening game is a distraction when they receive their rings.  They should be refocused tonight for Game 2.

The Astros have a big advantage on the mound with Cristian Javier, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Javier went 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.948 WHIP last season with 194 K's in 148 2/3 innings.  He had a great spring with a 2.31 ERA and 0.943 WHIP allowing 3 earned runs in 11 1/2 innings.

Lance Lynn went 8-7 with a 3.99 ERA in 21 starts for the White Sox last season.  The 36-year-old was not good in the World Baseball Classic and is once again out of shape heading into this season.  Lynn had a 4.30 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in spring training with 7 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.

Javier allowed one run in 5 innings of a 4-3 win over the White Sox in his lone career start against them, which came last season.  Lynn is 0-6 with an 8.37 ERA in his last six starts against the Astros, allowing a whopping 31 earned runs and 10 homers in 33 1/3 innings.  Enough said.  Bet the Astros Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/76ers UNDER 225.5

Two teams that play at a snail's pace square off tonight when the Toronto Raptors visit the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Raptors rank 25th in pace while the 76ers rank 27th.  This game will be played with great intensity defensively as both are trying to improve their playoff positioning.

This has been a low scoring series as the UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 229 or fewer combined points in all eight meetings, including 212 or fewer in all six unders.  In their two most recent meetings this season, the 76ers and Raptors combined for 205 and 202 points.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six games overall.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Angels should contend for the AL West title this season.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball with Ward, Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Renfroe, Drury and Urshela.  Their problem is a lack of depth in their rotation, but that won't come into play tonight.

Shohei Ohtani makes the Opening Day start and this will feel like a home game for the Angels despite being played in Oakland.  Ohtani is 28-14 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in four seasons as a starting pitcher.  He went 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 28 starts last season with 219 K's in 166 innings.

Oakland is one of the worst teams in baseball this season with a terrible lineup and a suspect starting rotation.  Kyle Muller gets the Opening Day start despite giving up eight runs (four earned) and 10 hits to the White Sox in his final Spring Training start.  He finished the spring with a 6.50 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 18 innings.  That's how poor of shape this rotation is in when they are starting Muller on Opening Day.

Ohtani is 4-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in 10 career starts against the A's.  He allowed just one earned run in 19 innings in his final three starts against the A's last season for a minuscule 0.47 ERA.  He will shut them down again and the Angels will get to Muller and win this game by two runs or more.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Pelicans/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7

The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 1.5 games ahead of 11th place.  They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it.  They Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all five wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

While the Pelicans are playing with a sense of urgency, the Denver Nuggets have plenty of margin for error.  They have a 3.5-game lead over the Grizzlies for 1st place in the West with seven games left.  They could decide to rest Nikola Jokic, who is very questionable with calf injury.  Either way, I like the Pelicans to stay within this 7-point spread given all the motivation factors.

Willie Green is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive team that allow 48% shooting or higher as the coach of New Orelans.  Plays against home favorites (Denver) - following two or more consecutive home wins in March games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Denver.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on New York Yankees -1.5 (+130)

The New York Yankees look like one of the best teams in baseball this season.  They have Judge, Rizzo, Stanton, Torres and LaMahieu all healthy to start the season and at the top of the lineup.  And they sent ace Gerrit Cole to the mound.  Cole is 130-71 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 10 seasons in the big leagues.

The San Francisco Giants are a team that is going to be hurt most by the new rules.  They can't shift anymore, and their starting rotation features more ground ball pitchers than any other team in baseball.  They also lack team speed so won't be taking advantage of the steal rules. Their lineup looks like one of the worst in baseball on paper.

Speaking of ground ball pitchers, Logan Webb goes for the Giants tonight.  He has one of the biggest home/road splits in the league.  He has a 3.01 ERA at home in his four seasons in the big leagues, but a 3.95 ERA on the road.  Now he has to open the season at Yankee Stadium, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-140)

The Atlanta Braves look like the best team in baseball this season.  They have no weaknesses in their lineup and get a healthy Ronald Acuna to start the season plus Marcell Ozuna.  They take on what could be the worst team in baseball in the Washington Nationals, who traded away Juan Soto and now have a bunch of no-names in their lineup.

Max Fried went 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 30 starts last season.  He'll be opposed by Patrick Corbin, who is somehow getting the Opening Day start for the Nationals despite going 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 31 starts last season.  That fact alone tells you just how poor of shape the Nationals are in this season.

Fried is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last six starts against the Nationals, while Corbin is 0-9 with a 7.17 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Braves while allowing 38 earned runs in 47 2/3 innings.  The Nationals are 0-10 in Corbin's last 10 starts against the Braves.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -13.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic.  They are also expected to be without Reddish and Watford tonight, who are both listed as doubtful.

The Blazers are 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Six of their last seven losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 18.6 points per game.  That's why I'm willing to face them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers.  They beat the Blazers by 17 in their most recent meeting.  They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number.  I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing six of their best players.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games with six losses by double-digits.  The Blazers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* Timberwolves/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 235.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have the twin towers back now in Gobert and Towns together.  They struggled for much of the season offensively with these two healthy, but they were obviously much better defensively, and they play at a slower pace.  They are still trying to figure out ways to make their offense work with these two on the floor at the same time.

The Phoenix Suns recently got De'Andre Ayton back from injury and are much better defensively with him on the floor.  So both teams have their stud big men healthy right now, and there won't be a lot of easy buckets at the rim as a result.  I think this total has been set too high tonight given all the circumstances.

Both the Timberwolves and Suns are battling right now to try to avoid the play-in round in the West, and to just make the playoffs.  That means the defensive intensity will be there as this will feel like a playoff game, especially with it being broadcast on ESPN on National TV.  The Timberwolves held the Warriors to 96 points and the Kings to 115 points in their last two games on the road, while the Suns held the 76ers to 105 and the Jazz to 103 in their last two games coming in.

Minnesota is 8-1 UNDER following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Phoenix is 20-10 UNDER when revenging a loss this season.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Timberwolves last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Bulls UNDER 227.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls will be playing for the 2nd time in 4 days.  The Bulls won the first meeting 118-108 for 226 combined points.  That total was set at 224.5, and now this total is set at 227.5, a 3-point adjustment up that is unwarranted.

That first meeting was played at a snail's pace but both teams shot great with the Bulls shooting 54% and the Lakers shooting 50.7%, and it's unlikely they'll shoot that well again.  The Lakers and Bulls have now combined for 226 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.

The Bulls have been great defensively since trading for Patrick Beverly.  He doesn't provide much offensively, but he makes them much better defensively.  They are allowing just 105.7 points per game in their last six games.  Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives right now, so the defensive intensity will be there.  It was going to be there anyway with that first meeting being very chippy a couple nights ago.

The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Lakers last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Bulls last 15 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +9.5

The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season behind Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum just to get into the playoffs.  They are coming up clutch again behind these two with their season on the line trying to make the playoffs again this year.

Indeed, the Pelicans have saved their best basketball for last, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins by double-digits and by an average of 23.8 points per game.  Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but that is mitigated by the fact that they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter of a 124-90 blowout win in Portland.

The Pelicans will be plenty fresh tonight, and they'll have no problem getting up to face the defending champs, who they trail by just a 0.5 games in the standings.  The Warriors have been overvalued all season, especially of late going 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes an upset home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves as 6.5-point favorites last time out.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Utah Valley/UAB NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley +2

I've been riding Conference USA in the NIT and the NCAA Tournament, but I think it's time to fade the conference here and go against UAB.  Not because I don't think the Blazers are good, I just think Utah Valley is better and the wrong team is favored here.

Utah Valley is 28-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah.  They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.

Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs.  They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs.  They finally got to play a home game and took advantage, topping Cincinnati 74-68 as 1.5-point favorites.  That was previously the biggest game in program history, and now this will be the biggest game in program history in the semifinals.

One hidden factor here is that this will essentially feel like a home game for Utah Valley State being played in Las Vegas.  Fans will be making the 5-hour trek to Las Vegas to support their team.  Nobody from UAB is driving the 26 hours to Vegas.  They may fly, but I can't see them having nearly the support that the Wolverines do.

The Wolverines are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS win.  UAB had the much easier path to get here beating Southern Miss and Morehead State at home as well as a short-handed Vanderbilt team on the road.  Utah Valley had three better wins than them and are more battle-tested.  Bet Utah Valley Tuesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas -1

Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season. C-USA is now 15-1 SU in all tournament games this season. Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Final 4 as of this writing. That easily could have been North Texas instead.

North Texas was dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20.  The Mean Green then went on the road and upset Oklahoma State by 6 as 4.5-point dogs.  The Mean Green are now 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Wisconsin benefited from a pretty easy path to get here.  They beat Bradley and Liberty (by 4) at home before going on the road and upsetting Oregon 61-58.  But Oregon was without three of its best players, and that line was steamed from Wisconsin +5 down to +1.5 after the news came out.  Yet the Badgers were still life and death with the Ducks.  

This will be Wisconsin's stiffest test yet, and the Big Ten only had one team remaining in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State lost to Kansas State to go to the Elite 8.  Wisconsin is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Badgers are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  This is one of the biggest games in program history for the Mean Green, and not only are they the better team, but they simply want it more.  Bet North Texas Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +1

Note: I released this play before the news of Luka Doncic having his 16th technical rescinded, thus being able to play tonight.  I would still make this a 20* play at the current line of Pacers +4.  The Mavericks have been terrible with or without Doncic, and he will be on tired legs.  I still think the Pacers win this game outright.

The Indiana Pacers are still fighting to stay alive for a play-in spot in the East.  Five of their last six games have come against playoff teams and all on the road, and they managed to win two of them as 12-point dogs at Milwaukee and 9.5-point dogs at Toronto.  Now the Pacers are back home here for just the 2nd time in their lats nine games.

The Pacers are 19-17 SU & 21-14-1 ATS at home this season and welcome the hapless Dallas Mavericks, who are falling apart at the seams.  They just they lost four consecutive games including back-to-back losses to the Hornets as 15.5-point home favorites and 12.5-point road favorites.

Luka Doncic picked up his 16th technical foul yesterday against the Hornets and scored 40 points in the process.  But now they won't have his scoring because he has been suspended for this game, terrible timing for the star player on a team that is currently on the outside looking in for the playoffs.  I just don't trust this team at all right now as they are simply imploding.

Rick Carlisle has stuck it to his former team with the Pacers after he got fired by the Mavericks.  The Pacers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with Dallas.  He would love nothing more than to deal them another blow to their playoff hopes.  The Pacers had yesterday off, while the Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.

Dallas is 5-17 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS as road favorites this season.  Dallas is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

15* Grizzlies/Hawks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 243.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have gone for 244 or more combined points in six of their last seven games overall, so this 243.5-point total isn't that high for them.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team now that they have JA Morant back from suspension.  In their two games since he returned, they combined for 255 points and 265 points in their two meetings with the Houston Rockets.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 220.5

The Washington Wizards are going to be without two of their top three scorers in Bradley Beal (23.2 PPG) and Kyle Kuzma (21.2 PPG) today.  They could be without 4th-leading scorer Monte Morris (10.2 PPG), who is questionable.  They will struggle to score points today, and this game will be played at a snail's pace against the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors rank 25th in pace this season while the Wizards rank 23rd.  The Raptors also have injury concerns of their own with two of their top five scorers questionable in Gary Trent Jr (17.7 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (15.5 PPG).  Both teams will have to rely on defense to try and win this game.

The UNDER is 15-7 in Wizards last 22 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Wizards last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 Sunday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Brooklyn Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days tonight.  Three starters played at least 34 minutes last night in their upset win over the Miami Heat in Bridges, Dinwiddie and Claxton.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight for Orlando, and this is now a bit of a letdown spot for them.

The Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the second half of the season.  They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes an upset road win over the Clippers, a 3-point loss at Phoenix, a 6-point loss at LA Lakers, a 10-point home win over the Wizards and a 5-point home win over the Knicks.  Now they come in rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Orlando) - revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is coming off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is getting too much respect off that upset win at Miami last night.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

20* Miami/Texas Elite 8 No-Brainer on OVER 149

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in the Elite 8 in Kansas City when the Miami Hurricanes take on the Texas Longhorns.  You would be hard-pressed to find two teams with a better trio of guards in the country than these two.

Miami has put up 85 points on 48.6% shooting on Indiana and 89 points on 51.7% shooting against Houston in its last two games.  That was the most points Houston allowed all season by 12 as their previous high was 77.  Isaiah Wong (16.3 PPG), Jordan Miller (15.1 PPG) and Nijel Pack (13.8 PPG) are arguably the best trio of guards in the country.

Texas has put up 71 or more points in four consecutive games, including 76 against Kansas, 81 against Colgate and 83 against Xavier.  Marcus Carr (15.8 PPG), Sir'Jabari Rice (12.9 PPG) and Tyrese Hunter (10.4 PPG) can match Miami score for score.  And they may not have big man Dylan Disu, which would hurt them defensively because he is their best rim protector.  Miami is a terrible defensive team and relies on outscoring opponents to win.

Texas is 18-3 OVER in its last 21 games against ACC opponents.  The OVER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 NCAA Tournament games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Mavs/Hornets NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5

Sunday UNDERS in these early start time games have been gold over the years.  Teams aren't used playing this early in the day, and they seem to be sleep walking through the game.  They don't look to push the tempo as much, either.

The Mavericks aren't a good defensive team right now, but their intensity on defense will be there as they are close to missing the playoffs.  The Hornets have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing La'Melo Ball to injury.  Now they are likely to be without Terry Rozier, who is doubtful, and could be without Kelly Oubre Jr. who is questionable.  That's their three best guards and without those three they will struggle to score.

The UNDER is 13-3 in Hornets last 16 games overall.  They have gone for 230 or fewer combined points in 14 consecutive games, making for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 231.5-point total.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Pelicans/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225

The Los Angeles Clippers are now an UNDER team without second-leading scorer Paul George (23.8 PPG).  They are having to slow it down and run their offense through Kawhi Leonard.  Five of their last seven games have seen 221 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 5-2 during this stretch.

The New Orleans Pelicans have been even more of an UNDER team without Zion Williamson.  They are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.

Both teams are fighting to make the playoffs here as the season comes to an end, so the defensive intensity will be there.  And this has been an UNDER series of late.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 203, 206, 219 and 202 combined points.  The UNDER is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 223 or fewer combined points in the six unders, and only 227 in the lone over.

The UNDER is 30-11 in Clippers last 41 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five road games.  The Clippers are 7-0 UNDER in home games when playing against a team that wins 40-49% of their games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn ML -130

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.1 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.5 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 3rd-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston and Alabama ahead of them.  UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted defense.

The Huskies have been the most impressive team in the tournament to this point.  They beat Iona by 24, St. Mary's by 15 and Arkansas by 23. That means they will still be very fresh for this game against Gonzaga because they didn't have to work too hard in the 2nd half against Arkansas Thursday night.  

Gonzaga just survived against both TCU and UCLA to get here.  They beat TCU by 3 and UCLA by 3.  They also played the late game Thursday night, so they have even less rest than UConn heading into this one.  I like backing the team that played the early game because they get the chance to watch their opponent after winning and get a head start on the scouting.

Gonzaga also benefited from TCU being without its best big man, and UCLA being without two starters in G Clark and F Bona.  Drew Timme had huge games against both of those teams to lead the way, but things aren't going to come so easy against UConn.  The Huskies rank 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, 14th in 2-point percentage and 25th in block percentage.  They have three stud big men who can contain Timme.

UConn also ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound percentage, getting 38.9% of their own misses.  Gonzaga is an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  The Bulldogs are 73rd in adjusted defense and 235th in effective field goal percentage allowed.  The Huskies are going to own them on the boards and limit Timme, which is going to be key to them getting this win.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team in this matchup.

UConn is 13-1 ATS in none-conference games this season.  Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season.  UConn is 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 12 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  The Huskies continue rolling right into the Final 4 with a win here.  Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 11th place in the East and within 3 games of the Hawks, Raptors and Bulls for the final three spots.  They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.

The Pacers just got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury last night and are still 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They did get blown out by 25 points, so that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter to remain somewhat fresh for the Hawks tonight, a team they will be extra motivated to beat since it's one of the teams they are trailing.

Asking the Hawks to beat the Pacers by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall with a 9-point home loss to Boston, a 21-point home loss to Minnesota, an 8-point road loss at San Antonio as a double-digit favorite and a 1-point loss at Minnesota.  Top three scorers Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter are all questionable to play for the Hawks tonight.

Indiana is 10-2 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games following an ATS win.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

The Chicago Bulls are battling here down the stretch to try and make the playoffs.  They are currently 10th in the East and in the final play-in spot.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming to the Kings and 76ers.  They upset the 76ers as 8.5-point road dogs and upset the Nuggets as 9-point road dogs during this stretch.

Now the Bulls take on the hapless Portland Trail Blazers, who are simply going through the motions here down the stretch as they have been all but eliminated from the playoffs.  The Blazers are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with five losses by 14 points or more.  They are without Simons and Grant right now and could be without Nurkic, leaving way too much on Damian Lillard's shoulders to handle.

The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four home games losing by 11, 14, 15 and 16 points.  They have zero home-court advantage right now as the fans have given up on this team this season.  I'll gladly back the more motivated, healthier Bulls tonight.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -3

The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now.  With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two.  That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

Their lone win came at home against the Magic by 3 as 8-point favorites.  They lost on the road to the Lakers by 11, the Warriors by 11 and the Thunder by 4.  They also lost at home to the Bucks by 12 and the Kings by 9, so they have rarely even been competitive of late.  It's too much on Devin Booker's shoulders and he can't carry the load.

The Kings should be more than 3-point home favorites tonight considering they are fully healthy and playing well.  They also come in off consecutive losses and will be motivated for a victory, plus they come in on two days' rest.  The Kings can inch closer to winning the division tonight, and it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at home tonight as Sacramento fans absolutely love this team, especially when they are in contention.

The Kings are 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  This one has blowout written all over it tonight.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* Xavier/Texas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -4

The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have won six consecutive games and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes a pair of blowout wins over Kansas by 20 in the Big 12 Tournament and by 16 at home.

The Longhorns now go back to Kansas City for the Sweet 16, a familiar venue for them as they just won the Big 12 Tournament there by beating Oklahoma State by 14, TCU by 6 and Kansas by 20.  They are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Kansas City, and their familiarity with the venue is a hidden advantage as it will feel like a home game for them.

Xavier is overvalued after an easy path to the Sweet 16.  They needed a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes against Kennesaw State to win 72-67.  Then they beat a Pittsburgh team 84-73 that arguably shouldn't have even been in the NCAA Tournament.  This is a big step up in class for Xavier compared to what they have faced thus far, while Texas fended off a red hot Penn State team that was playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten down the stretch.

Texas has no weakness ranking 5th in KenPom at 15th in adjusted offense while 10th in adjusted defense.  Xavier is an elite offensive team, but they struggle on the other end ranking 64th in adjusted defense.  I always like backing the better defensive team in the NCAA Tournament given the choice.  Dylan Disu will dominate the paint in this one.  He is shooting 72.2% while averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds per game since the start of the Big 12 Tournament.  The Musketeers have nobody inside that can match up with him, plus Texas has three elite guards which wins in the tournament as well.  Bet Texas Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12.5

The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 11th place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bulls and 2 games behind the Raptors for the final two play-in spots.  They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.

The Pacers are coming off a 118-114 win at Toronto as 9.5-point dogs without Tyrese Haliburton.  There's a decent chance they get him back tonight, which would mean they are at full strength.  But they have been a money maker even without him, going 8-6 SU & 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

The Boston Celtics are just 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics as it's their first game back home following a six-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip because there are a lot of distractions to deal with at home, and it tends to be a flat spot.

The Pacers are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with two outright wins as 9.5-point dogs, a 5-point loss as a 15-point dog and a 4-point loss in OT as a 7.5-point dog.  It's safe to say the Pacers match up very well with the Celtics, and getting 12.5 points is too much tonight.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* San Diego State/Alabama Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -7

I've faded the Mountain West with success for years in the NCAA Tournament.  It work out well with all teams not named San Diego State this season, but the Aztecs will be taking a big step up in class here against the most complete team in all of college basketball.

The Mountain West is 2-13 SU & 2-13 ATS in the last 15 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountain West is also 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in the last six Sweet 16 games.  This conference has been grossly overvalued for years, and the Aztecs aren't about to break that trend in the Sweet 16 here.  They beat two of the worst teams in the tournament in Charleston and Furman to get here.

Now they face an Alabama team that ranks 18th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense.  They have no weaknesses.  San Diego State ranks 70th in adjusted offense and doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide if they fall behind.  Maryland tried to muck it up last round against Alabama and was blown out 73-51.  San Diego State will try to muck it up too, but they just aren't on the same level as Alabama.

These teams have a common opponent in Arkansas.  San Diego State lost 78-74 to Arkansas on a neutral, while Alabama won both meetings with the Razorbacks by a combined 18 points this season.  If Arkansas got 78 points on them, Alabama can certainly do more damage offensively as they are much better shooting team than the Razorbacks.

This will feel like a home game for Alabama being played in Louisville, Kentucky while San Diego State has to travel clear across the country here.  Alabama is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season, winning by an average of 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points and are getting way too much respect following the blowout win over Furman.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Thunder/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 233

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Thunder and Clippers.  The Thunder won 101-100 for just 201 combined points on Tuesday, so we have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch Thursday night to keep this one UNDER this inflated 233-point total.

This has been an UNDER series as it is.  In fact, the Clippers and Thunder have combined for 230 or fewer points in 15 consecutive meetings, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 233-point total.

The Clippers were already an UNDER team ranking 24th in pace this season, and now they just lost Paul George (23.8 PPG) to injury in that game Tuesday after he had 18 points in 34 minutes.  They struggled without him going iso ball with Kawhi Leonard, and George could be out for the season, which is a huge blow to them offensively and puts an even bigger load on Leonard's shoulders.

These teams are both fighting to make the playoffs right now so the defensive intensity will be there again tonight.  The UNDER is 30-10 in Clippers last 40 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Gonzaga/UCLA Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga +2

The UCLA Bruins are without their best defensive player in Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 SPG).  Adam Bona (7.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is playing through a shoulder injury, and David Singleton (9.1 PPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the Round of 32 and is very questionable to play against Gonzaga.

The Bruins were able to survive a 68-63 scare from Northwestern last round, but they won't be so fortunate as they take a big step up in class here against Gonzaga while dealing with all these injuries.  The Bulldogs have made relatively easy work of both Grand Canyon and TCU, but the Horned Frogs made a late comeback to make the final score seemed closer than it really was.

Gonzaga comes in playing its best basketball of the season riding an 11-game winning streak.  That includes a pair of dominant wins over St. Mary's 77-68 at home and 77-51 in the WCC Championship Game.  St. Mary's plays a similar grind it out style to UCLA.

UCLA is ranked 3rd in KenPom right now, which has them inflated as a favorite here.  But they aren't the 3rd-best team in the country.  I would have a handful of teams ranked ahead of them, including Gonzaga given their current injury situation.  And UCLA hasn't seen an offense as potent as Gonzaga all season.  The Bulldogs rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 1st in effective field goal percentage.  They are also 12th in turnover rate so they don't beat themselves.  They shoot 38.4% from 3 and 52.6% from 2 while averaging 87.3 points per game.

This game will be played in Las Vegas, and Gonzaga just won the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas.  They always get tremendous fan support there and it will feel like a home game for them.  UCLA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams that shoot 48% or better, and 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  Bet Gonzaga Thursday.

20* FAU/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +5.5

Everyone was on Duke last week including myself.  But I didn't plan for big man Mark Mitchell getting injured in practice the day before the game and sitting out.  They missed his big body against Tennessee, a physical team that relies on defense to win games.

Now the Volunteers are starting to get respect from oddsmakers this week after beating Duke.  But this team is a fraud and it will rear its ugly head here in the Sweet 16 against Florida Atlantic.  The Volunteers are still just 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall and without their starting PG in Zakai Zeigler.  They are one of the worst offensive teams left in this tournament, which makes it tough for them to get margin.  That showed up in a 58-55 win over Louisiana in the opener.

Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season and came out of one of the best mid-major conferences in the country.  Both North Texas and UAB were NCAA Tournament-worthy, and the Owls outlasted both.  North Texas and UAB are both making runs in the NIT as of this writing to show how good this conference really is.  So I think FAU has played a tougher schedule than it gets credit for.

The win over Memphis was a really good one as the Tigers were playing as well as almost anyone in the country.  They had beaten Houston in the AAC ChampionshIp Game, and I expected them to make a deep run in the tournament.  I was pissed they got matched up with FAU because I figured the winner of that game had a great chance to make a deep run and beat Purdue.  Well, Fairleigh Dickinson did that for them both in the opening round.

FAU instead of playing the cinderella actually played the role of hated favorite against FDU as the entire country was rooting against them.  That was a tough spot for them to be in, and they handled it well pulling away late to beat FDU 78-70.  Now they can get back to being that cinderella role and playing with a chip on their shoulder getting a chance to face a Power 6 team.

KenPom has Tennessee ranked 6th right now with Florida Atlantic 22nd.  Tennessee being power-rated too highly has them overvalued.  The Vols have scored 71 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They should be ranked much worse than 60th in adjusted offense.  They will struggle to get anything easy against a FAU defense that ranks 35th in adjusted defense and 15th in effective field goal percentage.

Rick Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 NCAA Tournament games.  Florida Atlantic is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  Bet Florida Atlantic Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Pelicans UNDER 226

The Charlotte Hornets have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing star PG La'Melo Ball to a season-ending injury.  They are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall, combining for 224 or fewer points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  That would make for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 226-point total.

The New Orleans Pelicans are also a dead nuts UNDER team without Zion Williamson.  They are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 12 of their last 17 games overall.  This total is too high based on how both these teams have been playing for over a month now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn -3.5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (15.9 PPG), Newton (10.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.2 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation.  UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted defense.

Arkansas is getting a lot of respect after upsetting Kansas.  But Kansas was a fraud No. 1 seed along with Purdue.  KenPom had Kansas ranked five spots below UConn and they probably should have been worse with the way they played to finish the season.  Arkansas is ranked 18th according to KenPom while St. Mary's was 12th, yet UConn is a shorter favorite against Arkansas than they were against KenPom.  That's value.

The matchup is a good one for the Huskies.  Arkansas consistently tries to get to the room and get fouled or get layups because they are a terrible shooting team.  They rank 317th in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.  UConn is 19th in the country in 2-point defense at 45.4%.  They are 24th in block percentage and have the big men inside that won't allow Arkansas to get easy buckets at the rim like Kansas and Illinois did.  

Even then, Arkansas shot just 38.1% against Illinois and 41.4% against Kansas and now faces a better defensive team here in UConn.  Arkansas ranks 138th in allowing offensive rebounds defensively, while UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding.  Winning the battle on the glass will also be a key factor in the Huskies running away with this game.

UConn is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 11 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  That includes blowout wins by 24 over Iona and by 15 over St. Mary's to start the NCAA Tournament.  UConn is 12-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Bet UConn Thursday.

15* Suns/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now.  With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two.  That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Yet the Suns continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a Lakers team that needs wins like blood right now trying to make the Western Conference playoffs.  It's also a Lakers team that is fully healthy with the exception of LeBron James, and unlike the Suns, they are deep enough to still win without him.

The Lakers are 9-5 SU & 8-5-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  De'Angelo Russell recently returned to the lineup and is playing well as the Lakers have scored 108 or more points in eight consecutive games now.  Anthony Davis is playing like the superstar they need him to be and will dominate tonight not having to face Ayton, and the role players are all doing their parts as well to try and get this team into the playoffs.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs right now in 10th place in the West just a half-game ahead of both the Lakers and Pelicans.  They have come up clutch going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 4 points apiece to the Mavericks and Heat, both on the road in games they covered.

They have done this despite missing both Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton.  Lauri Markkanen has even missed some games, but he is upgraded to probable tonight.  The Jazz are showing they are much deeper than they get credit for, and I know I'm going to get max effort from them tonight given what they've shown of late and their current standing.

I also think it's safe to assume we are going to get a below average effort from the Blazers, who just seem to be going through the motions right now 4 games out of a playoff spot.  The Blazers are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall losing by 22 at Boston, by 17 at New Orleans, by 16 at home to New York, by 16 at home to Boston and by 15 at home to the Clippers.

As you can see, the Blazers haven't even been competitive during this six-game losing streak.  They are without two of their top three scorers right now in Anfernee Simons (21.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Jerami Grant (20.5 PPG), and Damian Lillard has been voicing his frustration in the media.  It's just a really bad look for the Blazers right now, and there's no reason to believe they are going to show up tonight.

Utah is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games after covering the spread in five or more consecutive games coming in.  The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Utah is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Utah Valley/Cincinnati NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley PK

Utah Valley is 27-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah.  They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.

Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs.  They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they get to host Cincinnati in the Quarterfinals, and this is the biggest game in program history.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere, and these kids would love nothing more than to play in Las Vegas for the NIT Semis.

Cincinnati has also been impressive in beating Virginia Tech and Hofstra thus far.  I don't want to take anything away from them, but I just think it means more for Utah Valley.  We also saw Utah Valley beat both BYU and Oregon on the road in the non-conference as they really tested themselves.

I think a hidden factor here is that Cincinnati is listed as the bottom team in the rotation order, so many think Cincinnati is the home team here.  I think we're getting value because of that flaw with Utah Valley actually being the home team instead.  The Wolverines are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  The Wolverines are 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Utah Valley Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Grizzlies OVER 231.5

JA Morant makes his return from suspension tonight for the Memphis Grizzlies and will be looking to put on a show.  The Grizzlies will be without one of their best defenders in Dillon Brooks, who is serving a one-game suspension for getting his 16th technical foul.  They were already without two other plus defenders in Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams.  All these factors make Memphis an OVER team in the immediate future.

The Rockets are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tate (9.1 PPG).  Their starting 5 of Green, Porter Jr., Sengun, Smith Jr. and Martin Jr. are all healthy and playing well.  The Rockets have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games and have scored at least 107 points in nine of those 10 games.  They will get enough against Memphis to help get this OVER the total.

Houston is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 road games after going under the total in its previous game.  This number is too low based on how Memphis has been playing of late without Morant.  They get back to being a high-octane offensive team with him back in the lineup now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are getting healthier and trying to make one final playoff push.  They are 2.5 games back of the Bulls for 10th and 3 games back of the Raptors.  Well, they get to play the Raptors tonight with a chance to cut into that deficit.

The Pacers clearly match up well with the Raptors.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against them this season winning 118-104 and 122-114.  There's a chance the Raptors are without Scottie Barnes (15.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.7 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Raptors after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Asking the Raptors to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and earn a spot in the Western Conference playoffs.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with six wins by 9 points or more and are currently the 9th seed in the West and one win away from getting back to .500 on the season.

The Los Angeles Clippers are also playing better of late but it's not like they are blowing out the opposition.  They are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with three wins by 8 points or fewer, and an upset home loss to the Orlando Magic as 6.5-point favorites.

The Thunder have the rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Thunder have owned the Clippers, going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with four outright upsets, including two in two meetings this season.

The Clippers are 2-12 ATS in home games following a road game this season.  The Thunder are 14-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

I like the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They come in on three days' rest last playing on Friday.  There's a good chance they are fully healthy tonight as C Jarrett Allen has been upgraded to questionable, and everyone else is a go for the Cavaliers.

They should be bigger favorites over the Brooklyn Nets, who are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 14 at OKC, by 5 at home to the Kings and by 6 at home to the Nuggets.  They aren't on the same level as the Cavaliers right now.

Brooklyn is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Nets are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points per game.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +4.5

Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season.  Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Sweet 16.  That easily could have been North Texas instead.

North Texas has been dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20.  Oklahoma State has been much more lackluster, beating Youngstown State by 5 and Eastern Washington by 11.  I think the Cowboys get caught here and lose this game outright to the Mean Green, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Cowboys are 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued.  The Mean Green are 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  North Texas is 23-9-3 ATS in its last 35 road games.  Bet North Texas Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets +11

The Golden State Warriors are 0-11 SU & 0-11 ATS in their last 11 road games with nine losses by 8 points or more.  They have rarely even been competitive on the highway.  The Warriors are now 7-29 SU & 9-27 ATS on the road this season.  In what world should they be double-digit road favorites against anyone?

The Houston Rockets are playing some of their best basketball of the season of late and will relish this opportunity to face the defending champs.  I think that's a big reason for Golden State's road struggles this season is they get the opposing team's best effort, plus games are usually close to being sold out with them coming to town.  It's an even bigger home-court advantage than normal.

Houston is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall with three outright upsets over Boston, the Lakers and Pelicans.  They came back and lost to the Pelicans last night, but that was a letdown spot after beating them two days earlier.  It was also a lookahead spot with the Warriors on deck.  They will be back to being locked in for this game tonight.

Houston has lost just one of its last nine games by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 3-13 ATS as road favorites this season.  Houston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following four consecutive games where they went under the total.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Chicago Bulls sit in 10th place in the East and in the final play-in spot.  They are just 1.5 games ahead of both the Pacers and Wizards for that spot.  They are clearly fighting hard to try to make the playoffs with the way they have been playing of late.

Indeed, the Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall winning by 21 as 9-point dogs at Denver, by 8 at Houston, by 8 at home over Minnesota and by 14 at home over Miami after playing the second of a back-to-back.  Their lone loss came by 3 at home to the Kings on a buzzer-beater.  The Kings are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers after going 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They followed up a five-game road trip with a buzzer-beater 120-119 home win over the Blazers, who are playing terrible right now.  The 76ers now return home from a three-game road trip before going back on the road for four more games.  There will be distractions to deal with at home with so many road games of late and coming up that I think we get a flat effort from the 76ers here.

Chicago is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following an upset win as a home underdog.  The Bulls won 126-112 as 4.5-point road dogs in their last trip to Philadelphia on January 6th.  This number is inflated tonight folks.  Bet the Bulls Monday.