15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +10 

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They only have two losses by more than 8 points in their last 12 games.  They have been very competitive, and they certainly can hang with the Miami Heat tonight. 

While the Hornets are fully healthy, which is a big reason for their solid play of late, the Heat have a plethora of injury concerns.  They are without Meyes Leonard, and Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn are all questionable to play tonight.  The Heat are just 7-8 SU & 5-10 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Hornets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Heat are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an SU win.  Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5 

Kansas City, Missouri is known as Hilton South because Iowa State fans always travel well for the Big 12 Tournament.  It’s no coincidence that the Cyclones have won four of the past six Big 12 tournaments, which is a remarkable feat. 

Sure, Iowa State is down this year, but you can never count them out in the Big 12 Tournament.  And getting +6.5 with the Cyclones in this opener against Oklahoma State is simply too many points.  The Cyclones will get Prentiss Nixon back from injury, and there’s a good chance they get Rasir Bolton back after he missed the last regular season game with a concussion. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Oklahoma State, which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its final three games of the season.  But those three wins were against three of the worst teams in the conference in Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas.  So the Cyclones want revenge from their 61-73 loss at Oklahoma State on February 29th less than two weeks ago. 

Oklahoma State is 1-9 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games off a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday. 

20* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Brooklyn +10.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a huge weekend.  After going 0-3 against the Bucks and Clippers previously this season, they beat both of them at home.  Those are their two biggest contenders to win a title this season, and you could see the excitement on their faces after beating both. 

It’s only human nature now for the Lakers to be flat tonight against the Brooklyn Nets in this obvious letdown spot.  Plus, LeBron James aggregated a groin injury Sunday and is very questionable to play tonight.  Don’t be surprise if the Lakers use extra caution and sit him. 

Head coach Kenny Atkinson and the Nets just mutually agreed to part ways.  Jacque Vaughn will be the interim coach the rest of the season.  Teams usually respond well for a few games at least to a coaching change, and I expect that to be the case for the Nets here.   

But the Nets have still be playing well in going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall with wins over Boston on the road and San Antonio (by 19) and Chicago at home.  They also only lost by 3 at Miami as 7.5-point road dogs.  Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Nets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the Nets Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -5 

The Portland Trail Blazers come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight upset losses to Phoenix on the road and Sacramento at home in a back-to-back situation.  But now the Blazers are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest. 

Adding to their motivation is that they just lost to Phoenix 117-127 on the road on March 6th just a few days ago.  They don’t have to wait long for revenge.  And there’s no way Phoenix shoots 19-of-42 (45.2%) from 3-point range again, which was the difference in that game. 

Phoenix is in a massive letdown spot off two straight upset wins over Portland and Milwaukee at home.  It was a rare win for the Suns in this series.  The Blazers are now 11-2 SU in their last 13 meetings with Phoenix. 

Portland is 12-3 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Phoenix is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Plays on any team (Portland) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two losing teams (40% to 49%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* VA Tech/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -4 

The UNC Tar Heels are the most underrated team in the country.  They have so many close losses this season and have battled through injury all year.  But they are finally pretty healthy heading into the ACC Tournament and it has shown with how they have played down the stretch. 

The Tar Heels are the team nobody wants to face in the ACC Tournament.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins over NC State by 6 at home, Syracuse by 13 on the road and Wake Forest by 10 at home.  Their only loss came by 13 at Duke as 10.5-point dogs in a game that was close until the final two minutes. 

Now UNC wants revenge on Virginia Tech from a 77-79 (2 OT) road loss on January 22nd.  But they didn’t have Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) or Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) in that contest.  Anthony and Robinson have been back down the stretch, though Robinson is questionable tonight with a head injury. 

The Hokies have been woeful since that double-OT win over the Tar Heels.  They are just 2-10 SU & 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall with nine of those losses by 4 points or more, including five by double-digits. 

The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Hokies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with North Carolina Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -4 

This is a very tough spot for the Toronto Raptors tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-113 win in Sacramento last night.  They will also be playing their 5th road game in 9 days and have to be running on fumes.  And now they have to go to Utah and play in altitude. 

Many players played big minutes for the Raptors last night.  Powell played over 42 minutes, Siakam over 38 minutes, Anunoby over 38 minutes, Ibaka over 35 minutes and Lowry over 35 minutes.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Jazz tonight. 

Utah is back to playing up to its potential with five straight victories including four of those on the road.  And now the Jazz want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season, a 110-130 setback in Toronto on December 1st.  They trailed that game by 40 at halftime and have not forgotten. 

The Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Jazz are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win.  Bet the Jazz Monday. 

20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -3.5 

Home-court advantage has been huge for both of these teams this season.  And it has been important in this head-to-head series as well as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Illinois wants revenge form a tough 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd in which the Fighting Illini blew a halftime lead.  They also blew a halftime lead at Ohio State in their last game adding to their motivation.  The Fighting Illini are 14-3 SU at home this season and will get their revenge. 

Iowa is just 2-7 SU in true road games in Big Ten play with its only wins coming at Northwestern and Minnesota, which are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  Six of their seven losses have come by 6 points or more and the seven losses are by an average of 12.4 points per game. 

Iowa is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last three seasons, losing by 14.3 points per game in this spot.  The Hawkeyes are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Fighting Illini are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Illinois Sunday. 

15* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Boston -3.5 

The Boston Celtics come in highly motivated for a win after going just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with losses in OT, by 1 and by 5 points.  It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Celtics, who get Gordon Hayward back from injury. 

The Thunder were one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA all season, especially on the road, but bettors are starting to catch on.  The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And I think they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers now as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Celtics tonight. 

The Celtics are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Thunder.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Boston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Take the Celtics Sunday. 

20* Lakers/Clippers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5 

When the best teams in the NBA meet up I usually look to the UNDER.  The Lakers just beat the Bucks 113-103 at home on Friday in a game that went way UNDER the 228.5-point total.  And this one will play out similarly with points harder to come by for these teams that normal. 

It will be the 3rd meeting of the season between the Lakers and Clippers, so they are very familiar with one another.  And the first two meetings saw just 214 and 217 combined points.  So we are getting a ton of value here on this 226.5-point total with the UNDER. 

The UNDER is 13-4-1 in Lakers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings.  The UNDER is 19-9 in Clippers last 28 games after a combined score of 225 points or more.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3 

This line has been adjusted too much for the Blazers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the Sacramento Kings even with this situation. 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Kings, who have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But Sacramento just lost outright to the short-handed 76ers 108-125 as 5.5-point home favorites.  And I just can’t see them beating the Blazers on the road tonight. 

Portland is 12-0 SU in its last 12 home meetings with Sacramento with 10 of those wins coming by 4 points or more.  Those 12 wins have come by an average of 9.9 points pre game as well.  The Kings haven’t won in Portland since 2012.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8.5 

The Charlotte Hornets have been grossly undervalued for weeks.  They continue to be today as 8.5-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets. 

The Hornets are 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Three of those losses came to the Bucks by 8, Spurs by 1 and Nuggets by 2.  They have been dcompetitive in basically every games and even pulled four road upsets over the Pistons, Timberwolves, Bulls and Raptors. 

The Rockets are going to be without both Russell Westbrook (27.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 7.0 APG) and Eric Gordon (14.5 PPG) tonight.  That’s a lot of production to be missing for a team that has to go on the road and win by 9-plus points to beat us. 

Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a loss by 6 points or less.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.  They just lost outright as 10-point favorites at New York in their last road game.  Roll with the Hornets Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia PK 

Death, taxes and Virginia being underrated every year.  All the Cavaliers have done is go 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming 73-80 at Louisville as 7-point dogs.  Malik Williams (8.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) had 13 points and 6 rebounds in that first meeting, but he won’t be playing today due to injury. 

Now, the Cavaliers get their chance at revenge for their lone loss during this stretch.  They host Louisville Saturday and just have to win to cover.  Considering Virginia is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings, and 5-0 SU in the last five home meetings, that won’t be a problem. 

Louisville is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three road games.  It lost at Georgia Tech by 6 as 6-point favorites, at Clemson by 15 as 4.5-point favorites and at Florida State by 15 as 2.5-point dogs.  The Cardinals are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the road today. 

Virginia is 13-1 SU off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 1-6 SU in road games after allowing 55 points or less over the last two years.  Roll with Virginia Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1 

The Missouri Tigers have been a very tough out at home this season.  They are 11-4 SU at home with some impressive wins against some of the top teams in the ACC.  Now they take down Alabama on Senior Day. 

Missouri is 4-1 SU in its last five home games with its only loss to Mississippi State by 4.  The Tigers beat Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas and Georgia.  They also beat Florida earlier this season at home. 

Alabama is coming off an ugly 79-87 home loss to Vanderbilt as 12-point favorites.  They’ve been playing without John Petty Jr. (15.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG) who remains questionable with an elbow injury.  But I like Missouri whether or not he plays as the Crimson Tide are just 4-7 SU in true road games this season. 

Plays against road dogs SU after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 48-11 (81.4%) SU since 1997.  The Tigers basically just have to win SU to cover this short number.  Take Missouri Saturday.

20* Kansas/Texas Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +3.5 

After going losing three straight, including a 68-71 (OT) loss at Baylor as 7-point dogs last time out, Texas Tech needs a signature win to assure they make the NCAA Tournament.  They get that opportunity today hosting Kansas. 

Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a tough 75-78 loss at Kansas as 8.5-point dogs on February 1st in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Jayhawks on the road, so they certainly can beat them at home. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Jayhawks, who have won 15 straight games coming in while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.  But they failed to cover their last two in a 4-point win at Kansas State as 11.5-point favorites and a 9-point home win over TCU as 16-point favorites, two of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They already clinched at least a share of the Big 12 title so they certainly won’t be as motivated as Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders are 13-3 SU in home games this season.  Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 18.7 PPG in in this spot.  The Red Raiders are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  Take Texas Tech Saturday. 

20* Kentucky/Florida CBS No-Brainer on Florida -2.5 

Kentucky has already wrapped up the SEC regular season title.  They also already beat Florida 65-59 at home two weeks ago on February 22nd.  I could see them being really flat today. 

That won’t be the case for the Gators, who are out for revenge and still trying to make sure they make the NCAA Tournament.  The Gators are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Tennessee by 5 and Kentucky by 6. 

Florida has been dominant at home here of late, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games while outscoring their opponents by 13.3 points per game.  That includes a 15-point win over LSU and a 14-point win over Arkansas. 

The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Gators are 11-3 SU at home this season.  Bet Florida Saturday. 

15* Wisconsin/Indiana ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers are currently on Joe Lunardi’s ‘Last Four In’ line.  They’ll be highly motivated for a home win over the Wisconsin Badgers today that would likely put them into the big dance. 

Indiana is a sensational 15-3 SU at home this season.  They basically just have to win to cover, and they want revenge from a bad loss at Wisconsin in their first meeting this season.  The Badgers are just 5-9 SU in all road/neutral games this season. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I could easily see them letting up here in their regular season finale as they have already earned a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament thanks to this seven-game winning streak. 

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less this season.  Indiana is 35-19 ATS in its last 56 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Indiana Saturday. 

20* Bucks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1 

The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from a 104-111 road loss at the Milwaukee Bucks in their first meeting this season.  This is a huge statement game for them and one I expect them to win at home, where they are 22-7 SU this season. 

The Lakers have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They come in fresh and ready to go working on two days’ rest after last playing on Tuesday night.  The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days with a ton of travel in between. 

The Bucks lost at Miami 89-105 as 4.5-point favorites in their last road game.  So they are beatable on the highway, and I look for the Lakers to have their revenge tonight at home. 

The Lakers are 14-4 ATS after winning three of their last four games this season.  Milwaukee is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet the Lakers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers are 3.5 games back of the 8th seed in the West and in need of a big finish to make the playoffs.  I know we’ll get a big effort from the Blazers moving forward because of it. 

I was on the Blazers in Damian Lillard’s return Wednesday when they crushed Washington 125-104 at home.  And I’ll back them again here against the Phoenix Suns, a team they have owned in going 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings. 

The Suns are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses coming at home and three of them by 9 points or more.  Making matters worse for the Suns are injuries to Kelly Oubre Jr, DeAndre Ayton and Cameron Johnson that will keep all three out of the lineup tonight.  That’s an average of 45.8 points per game they will be missing. 

Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in home games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven ATS this season.  The Suns are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games overall.  Phoenix is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%.  Take the Blazers Friday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1 

I love the spot for Northern Illinois tonight.  It’s Senior Day so this will be the Huskies’ final home game.  And they want revenge from a 59-63 road loss at Ball State as 7-point dogs on February 11th. 

I expect the Huskies to get their revenge at home this time around.  Northern Illinois is 11-3 SU at home this season with its only losses coming to Northern Iowa, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Akron.  The Huskies are 7-1 SU at home in MAC play this season.  Ball State is just 2-7 SU in its last nine true road games. 

Ball State is 1-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents over the last two seasons.  Northern Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. teams that win between 51% & 60% of their games over the last two years.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Huskies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3 

Atlanta head coach Lloyd Pierce called out his team for their lack of effort in an 88-127 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday.  They’ve had three days off since, so look for a big effort from them tonight when they visit the Washington Wizards. 

While it’s a great spot for the Hawks, it’s a terrible one for the Wizards.  They return home from a tough four-game road trip on West, and I like to fade teams when they return home from long road trips.  It will be the 3rd game in 4 days and the 8th game in 13 days for the Wizards. 

Atlanta is 47-20 ATS in its last 67 games off a home loss by 10 points or more.  Washington is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games after playing three consecutive road games.  The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Roll with the Hawks Friday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4 

The Clemson Tigers want revenge from a 59-68 road loss at Georgia Tech on February 25th less than two weeks ago.  They don’t have to wait long for revenge, and they should get it at home this time around. 

Clemson has been a very tough out at home here of late.  The Tigers are 6-1 SU in their last seven home games which includes upset wins over Florida State as 3.5-point dogs, Louisville as 4.5-point dogs and Duke as 10.5-point dogs.  They also beat NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Yellow Jackets, who have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But four of those wins were at home with their lone road win coming at lowly Wake Forest.  Clemson is 18-4 SU & 13-9 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Georgia Tech. 

Clemson is 7-0 ATS in Friday games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  Plays against road teams (Georgia Tech) - off three or more consecutive wins in a game involving two winning teams (51% to 60%) are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Clemson Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on California +15.5 

The Cal Golden Bears have quietly gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 15.5-point road underdogs to the Oregon Ducks tonight. 

Cal only lost 72-77 at home to Oregon as 10.5-point dogs on January 30th in their first meeting this season.  So they will be out for revenge and should have no problem staying within 15.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

Cal is a sensational 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Oregon.  The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. at team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Cal is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference home win.  Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win.  Take California Thursday. 

15* Clippers/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +1 

The Los Angeles Clippers are making their case as being the best team in the NBA when healthy.  And since they’ve been healthy the last few weeks, they’ve been on a roll in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by a whopping 17.4 points per game. 

Now, the Clippers want revenge after losing two of their first three meetings this season with the Rockets.  They want to square the season series, and I love their chances against this small ball Rockets lineup that has been out-rebounded in 14 straight games. 

The Rockets are coming off an ugly 123-125 road loss to the New York Knicks as 10-point favorites.  They found themselves down as many as 21 points in that game, and giving up offensive rebounds was a big culprit.  The Clippers rank 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage. 

The Clippers are 26-14 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  Doc Rivers is 65-41 ATS when revenging a SU loss as a favorite as the coach of the Clippers.  The Rockets have given up 104 or more points in 28 straight games.  Roll with the Clippers Thursday. 

20* Boise State/UNLV Mountain West No-Brainer on UNLV -1 

Nobody is playing better than UNLV in the Mountain West heading into the conference tournament.  The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes upset road wins over New Mexico and San Diego State as 14.5-point dogs. 

UNLV gets to play at home for the conference tournament, which is a huge advantage that isn’t being factored into the line enough.  They won their last two home games over Colorado State by 24 and Boise State by 10 and are 12-6 SU at home this season.  I realize that Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG) is doubtful to play tonight for the Rebels, but they get back Donnie Tillman (10.1 PPG) from a five-game absence to make up for it. 

Boise State is just 4-8 SU in true road games this season.  And that 66-76 loss at UNLV was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  UNLV led 60-33 with 10 minutes left before calling off the dogs.  The Broncos outscored them by 17 in garbage time.  You’ll get a focused UNLV for 40 minutes in this one and the result will be another blowout win in their favor. 

T.J. Otzelberger is 15-4 ATS in home games off two straight wins in all games he has coached.  The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.  UNLV is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet UNLV Thursday. 

20* Wizards/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -7.5 

This is an important time for the Portland Trail Blazers.  They made the Western Conference Finals last season and now find themselves 3.5 games out of the 8th playoff spot in the West.  It’s now or never for the Blazers. 

Injuries have been a big reason for their poor season thus far, but they get Damian Lillard back from a seven-game absence tonight.  They have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games overall with most of those on the road.  But now they get seven of their next eight at home and a chance to make some serious headway. 

After beating the Magic 130-107 as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday, the Blazers return home looking to continue their solid play.  They host a tired Wizards team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Bradley Beal played 38 minutes in a 126-133 shooting loss at Sacramento last night.  He and the Wizards won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

Washington is 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 130 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 9-24 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last two years. Portland won 122-103 at Washington as identical 7.5-point road favorites in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7 

This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Orlando Magic, who have lost two straight coming in including a shocking 107-130 home loss to Portland as 6.5-point favorites.  Aaron Gordon did not play in that game and there’s a good chance he returns tonight. 

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the Miami Heat, who have won three straight and are coming off a shocking 105-89 home win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 4.5-point dogs.  The Bucks haven’t been beaten many times this season, so it’s only human nature for the Heat to have an emotional letdown off that huge win. 

The Magic were playing very well prior to that loss to the Blazers.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games.  This will be their 4th and final meeting with the Heat, and after losing two of the first three, they will be motivated to square the season series at two games apiece. 

Miami is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home win.  The Heat are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games off a blowout win by 15 points or more.  Orlando is 12-3 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons.  Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win.  The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win.  Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Miami.  Take the Magic Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida International +9.5 

I was on Florida International when they lost 57-60 at LA Tech as 10-point dogs on February 13th.  So I’m certainly taking them again in the rematch at LA Tech as 9.5-point dogs this time around. 

This has simply been a bad match for LA Tech in recent years.  FIU is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with LA Tech despite being the underdog in all four.  They have an excellent shot of pulling the upset again tonight. 

Asking LA Tech to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Bulldogs are just 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall and have been grossly overvalued here down the stretch.  Their four wins during this stretch have come by 3, 3, 2 and 13 points. 

LA Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off three straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better.  FIU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Roll with Florida International Wednesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas -3 

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a completely different team with Isaiah Joe (16.9 PPG) in the lineup.  They recently lost five straight games that he missed due to an injury. 

But the Razorbacks are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS since his return with wins over Missouri by 10 and Tennessee by 17 at home with their only loss coming at Georgia.  The Razorbacks need to win these last two games to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  It starts tonight with LSU at home. 

Adding to Arkansas’ motivation is that it will be out for revenge from a 77-79 loss at LSU in their first meeting on January 8th.  The Razorbacks are 13-4 SU at home this season and should be able to handle a struggling Tigers team that is just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. 

LSU is 1-8 ATS off a conference win this season.  Arkansas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after two straight games where it made 78% or better from the FT line.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Arkansas Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -3.5 

The Indiana Hoosiers are on the bubble and cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight.  They should make easy work of the Golden Gophers just as they did when they won 68-56 as 5.5-point road dogs at Minnesota on February 19th in their first meeting this season. 

Minnesota is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall to play its way out of NCAA Tournament contention.  The Golden Gophers put a lot of energy into two straight heartbreaking losses to Maryland by 1 and Wisconsin by 2.  I don’t think they’ll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face an Indiana team that simply wants it more tonight. 

Indiana is 14-3 SU at home this season.  The Hoosiers are 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers are just 2-9 SU in true road games this season with eight of those nine losses coming by 4 points or more. 

The Hoosiers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Gophers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Hoosiers are 12-3 ATS vs. bad pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in road games revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points over the last three seasons.  Take Indiana Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4 

The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in with two of those losses to the Nuggets and Bucks.  They haven’t lost four straight all season, and they aren’t about to tonight. 

The Raptors had gone 17-1 SU in their previous 18 games prior to this three-game losing streak.  They have been playing without Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka during this skid, which has something to do with it.  But both have a chance to return tonight.  Even if they don’t, they’re deep enough to beat the Suns here. 

Phoenix is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with three straight home losses to the Clippers by 10, the Pistons as 9-point favorites and the Warriors by 16 as 11-point favorites.  They aren’t playing well at all right now, and they recently lost Kelly Oubre Jr. to a  season-ending knee injury. 

The Raptors are 5-0 SU in their last four meetings with the Suns with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more.  Toronto is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games playing on one days’ rest.  Phoenix is 18-37-2 ATS in its last 57 games playing on two days’ rest.  The Suns are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.  Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage above 60%.  The Suns are 2-14 ATS off a division loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday. 

20* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5 

The gift that keeps on giving is betting Iowa at home.  The Hawkeyes are 14-1 SU & 11-2-2 ATS at home this season.  That includes 11-0 SU & 9-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play.  And now the Hawkeyes are highly motivated for revenge from their worst loss of the season at Purdue in their first meeting on February 5th. 

The Hawkeyes are even more potent now after getting C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.8% 3-pointers) back from an ankle injury in their 77-68 home win over Penn State over the weekend.  Purdue shot 63.1% as a team and 55.9% from 3-point range while draining 19 3-pointers against Iowa in their first meeting.  That’s not going to happen again. 

Purdue is 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Boilermakers are 4-10 SU & 3-10-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  That includes 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in all Big Ten road games with their only wins coming at Northwestern by 3 and Indiana.  Their seven losses have come by an average of 11.4 points per game. 

Iowa is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Purdue is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Iowa Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -2 

The South Carolina Gamecocks have gone 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 SEC games to play their way into NCAA Tournament contention.  And it’s worth noting that each of their last three losses all came by 6 points or less, so they have been competitive in almost every game. 

That includes their 76-79 loss at Mississippi State on February 19th just a few weeks ago.  Now the Gamecocks want revenge on the Bulldogs at home this time around.  South Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven home games outscoring opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game during this stretch at home. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 4-0 SU in the last four.  Mississippi State is 4-6 SU In true road games this season with its only wins coming at Coastal Carolina, Florida, Arkansas and Missouri. 

South Carolina is 16-6 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games this season.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10.5 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Houston Rockets tonight.  The Rockets are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and coming off a huge overtime win at Boston on Sunday.  They won’t be able to get up for the Knicks tonight. 

That’s especially the case considering the Rockets just beat the Knicks 123-112 at home as 13.5-point favorites on February 24th.  Now the Knicks get their shot at revenge just a week later.  And after only losing by 11 on the road, I have no doubt they can stay within single-digits at home in the rematch. 

The Knicks have quietly been a very profitable team to back thus far in 2020.  New York has gone 10-6-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  They have gone 6-3 ATS at home during this stretch including home losses to the Lakers, Raptors and 76ers by 8, 6 and 3 points, respectively. 

New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  The Rockets are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite.  The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest.  New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (New York) - in non-conference games, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 65-29 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8.5 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Utah Jazz tonight.  They are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games which have all come since the All-Star Break.  Now they get a team they can handle here in the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Cleveland played well in its first few games under interim coach JB Bickerstaff.  But the Cavaliers have come back down to reality in their last two, losing by 12 on the road to the Pelicans and by 9 at home to the Pacers.  I expect them to suffer a double-digit loss tonight. 

Cleveland has been hit hard by injuries since the All-Star Break.  They will be without Tristan Thompson, Darius Garland, Dante Exum and Alfonzo McKinnie tonight.  Those four combine to average 33.3 points per game so that’s a lot of production they’ll be missing.  Conversely, the Jazz are fully healthy.  They have won their last two meetings with the Cavaliers by 16 points at home and by 26 points on the road. 

The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  Utah is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a win.  The Jazz are 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Jazz Monday. 

20* Lakers/Pelicans ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are 19-10 SU & 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  That includes 9-4 SU in their last 13 games with their only losses coming to the Rockets, Bucks, Thunder & Lakers. 

Now the Pelicans want revenge from three losses already to the Lakers this season.  They don’t want to get swept, and it’s worth noting that they were competitive in all three losses as they all came by 10 points or less.  And they just played on February 25th in Los Angeles so New Orleans doesn’t have to wait long for this revenge opportunity. 

While the Pelicans are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They lost 88-105 in Memphis last night as 11-point favorites.  And don’t be surprised if LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis sits tonight as both are battling through injury. 

The Lakers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days.  The Pelicans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.  Los Angeles is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with the Lakers.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.

15* Colorado/Stanford ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1 

The Stanford Cardinal have played their way back to the ‘first four out’ line.  The Cardinal have gotten healthy and have played up to their potential over the last few weeks.  Now they really have a chance to add to their resume with a win over a ranked Colorado team Sunday. 

Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Cardinal went on the road and beat Washington by 8 and Washington State by 18.  They also beat Utah at home by 8.  The Cardinal are 13-4 SU & 11-6 ATS at home this season.  They hung tough in a 74-81 loss at Colorado on February 8th as 8.5-point dogs.  They led that game by 11 at halftime and now want revenge. 

Colorado has been grossly overvalued of late due to that Top 25 ranking.  The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at home to UCLA by 7 as 10-point favorites and were upset at California by 16 as 8.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  We’ll keep ’selling high’ on the Buffaloes today. 

The Buffaloes are 14-40-1 ATS in their last 55 road games.  Colorado is 12-38-1 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Stanford is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 home games.  The Cardinal are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite.  Take Stanford Sunday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -1 

The SMU Mustangs have come up big with wins over Houston and Memphis recently that help their tournament resume.  Now they get another good chance here to inch closer to the bubble by beating a fellow bubble team in Wichita State. 

Considering SMU is 15-1 at home this season, this is a great value for the Mustangs today as a short 1-point favorite.  They are 8-0 at home in conference play and home one of the best home-court advantages in the AAC. 

SMU has the rest advantage here last playing on February 25th while Wichita State last played on February 27th.  The Shockers have basically lost to all the best teams they have faced on the road this season.  They are 2-4 SU in their last six AAC road games with their only wins coming over UCF and USF.  They lost to Temple, Tulsa, Houston and Cincinnati by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

Wichita State is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams that win between 60% & 80% of their games like SMU.  The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet SMU Sunday. 

15* Arizona/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3.5 

Mick Cronin has the UCLA Bruins in first place in the Pac-12, tied with Oregon.  The Bruins have put themselves in this position by going 10-2 SU & 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to ASU and Oregon. 

UCLA is a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Bruins face a reeling Arizona team that is coming off back-to-back upset losses to Oregon at home and USC on the road.  There’s no way Arizona should be favored on the road tonight with their injury situation.   

The Wildcats will be without Josh Green (11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) for a second straight game due to a back injury.  They could also be without Max Hazzard (5.5 PPG) for a second straight game due to personal reasons.  Arizona’s offense was dreadful in the 48-57 loss at USC without these two on Thursday. 

UCLA upset Arizona 65-52 as 12.5-point road underdogs on February 8th in their first meeting.  Sean Miller is just 9-19 ATS revenging a same-season loss as the coach of the Wildcats.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons.  UCLA is 10-2 ATS in home games off a conference win over the last three years.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Take UCLA Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3 

The Orlando Magic just played in a taxing 136-125 home win over the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves last night.  Now the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days while having to travel to San Antonio overnight. 

The Spurs come in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the NBA in the Thunder and Mavericks.  And they had beaten the Jazz on the road as 7-point dogs and Thunder as 8-point dogs outright in their previous two games.  They finally get a break in the schedule here and will take advantage. 

While the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days, the Spurs are rested and ready to go.  San Antonio comes in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday.  They also will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  I’ll gladly side with the fresher, more motivated team tonight. 

The Magic are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest.  Orlando is 1-8 ATS off two straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season.  San Antonio is 35-10 ATS revenging a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 11-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years.  The Magic are 0-9 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Bet the Spurs Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 226.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies just lost both Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.9 PPG) and Brandon Clark (12.0 PPG) to injuries.  Their offense has really faltered without these two scoring 101 points against Sacramento, 112 against Houston and 97 against the Clippers in their last three games, respectively. 

The Lakers have some injuries of their own that will hamper them offensively.  LeBron James (25.5 PPG) missed last game and is highly questionable with a groin injury.  Anthony Davis (26.6 PPG) is trying to play through an elbow injury, and Danny Green (8.4 PPG) is doubtful with a hip injury. 

These teams just played on February 21st just over a week ago in a 117-105 home win for the Lakers and 222 combined points.  So they are very familiar with one another, and familiarity favors defense.  Jackson Jr. and Clarke both played in that game, as did James and Green, and there’s a good chance none of those four will play in the rematch. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Memphis) - off four or more consecutive losses against an opponent that is off four or more consecutive wins are 72-34 (67.9%) since 1996.  Memphis is 12-3 UNDER off four or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. 

The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with 222 or fewer combined points in all seven games and an average of just 209 points per game, which is 17.5 points less than this 226.5-point total.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Lakers last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine home games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3 

The USC Trojans want revenge form a tough 64-66 road loss at Arizona State earlier this month on February 8th.  The Trojans led that game 40-32 at halftime on the road and feel like they let one get away. 

Now, the Trojans will be highly motivated for a win at home tonight where they are 12-2 SU this season.  They just got back Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Rakocevic (10.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG) from illness and promptly beat Arizona 57-48 as 4.5-point home underdogs on Thursday. 

Arizona State is coming off a tough 72-75 road loss at UCLA on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat just two days later and hit the road again to face a USC team that will be motivated for revenge.  That’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice. 

USC is 17-4 SU & 12-9 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Arizona State.  The Trojans are 12-4 ATS vs. conference opponents this season.  USC is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take USC Saturday. 

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Nevada +5.5 

Expectations are finally catching up to the San Diego State Aztecs.  Their 27-1 record and No. 5 national ranking come with expectations that are hard to live up to.  That has certainly shown in their last two games. 

The Aztecs lost outright as 14.5-point home favorites 63-66 to UNLV last Saturday.  Then they found themselves in a dog fight in a 66-60 home win over Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites on Tuesday.  And now they have to face arguably the hottest team in the Mountain West in Nevada. 

Nevada is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Wolf Pack boast one of the best players in the country in Jalen Harris (21.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG), who has scored at least 20 points in eight straight games coming in.  They actually led 35-33 at halftime at San Diego State in their first meeting.  You know they want revenge at home where they are 12-2 SU on the season this time around. 

The home team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Aztecs.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

The spot couldn’t be worse for BYU.  The Cougars are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga as 4-point underdogs.  That win cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament no matter what they do the rest of the way. 

It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Cougars, who are just 5-5 SU in true road games this season.  And they certainly won’t be motivated to face a Pepperdine team that they already beat by 27 at home in their first meeting this season. 

Conversely, Pepperdine wants revenge from that defeat and to show that they can play with BYU.  The Waves are 9-4 SU at home this season with three of those losses coming by single-digits.  The only exception was a 12-point loss to Gonzaga as 15-point dogs. 

Plays on home teams (Pepperdine) - revenging. Blowout loss by 20 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent are 56-21 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Lorenzo Romar is 11-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less in two straight games as a head coach. 

Pepperdine is 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with BYU with all four wins in upset fashion.  BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5.  Pepperdine is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Bet Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -3 

The Bradley Braves want revenge from their 51-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 5-point dogs on February 1st.  It will be a completely different story at Bradley this time around. 

The Braves are 15-1 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  And it’s worth noting the Braves didn’t have their best player in Elijah Childs (14.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) in that first meeting with the Ramblers. 

Loyola-Chicago is 4-6 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  The Ramblers are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five MVC road games with their only win coming by 7 at Evansville, which is 0-17 in MVC play.  The four losses have all come by 5 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

Loyola-Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two seasons.  The Ramblers are 2-9 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Bradley is 57-29 ATS in its last 86 home games revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Bradley Saturday. 

15* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5 

The Clippers voiced their frustration over a recent season-high three game losing streak.  They have responded well by going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games since with a 27-point home win over Memphis and a 10-point road win at Phoenix. 

The Clippers are 23-6 at home this season and should be bigger favorites over the Nuggets tonight.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Clippers beat the Nuggets 132-111 in their last home meeting with the Nuggets. 

Denver is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off two straight blowout home wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in Minnesota by 12 and Detroit by 17.  They lost their last road game at Oklahoma City by 12 and will get worked on the road here by the Clippers, who are fully healthy for basically the first time all season. 

Denver is 8-22 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 4-14 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scores 110 or more points this season.  The favorite is 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Clippers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight off two straight upset losses to Cleveland and Minnesota.  Look for them to come out playing with a sense of urgency at home tonight. 

We are getting the Heat at a value tonight because of those two losses.  After all, the Heat are one of the best home teams in the NBA, going 23-4 SU & 18-8-1 ATS at home this season. 

Dallas is without Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson and Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Luka Doncic, who is questionable with a thumb injury.  I expect Doncic to play, but if he doesn’t the Heat will be a substantial favorite and you’ll be getting a great number. 

Miami is 15-2 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 14-3 ATS vs. Southwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  Miami is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Heat Friday. 

15* Davidson/Dayton ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 140.5 

Two of the best offensive teams in the country square off tonight when the Dayton Flyers host the Davidson Wildcats.  Dayton ranks 4th in adjusted offense, while Davidson ranks 31st in adjusted offense according to KenPom. 

Dayton is scoring 79.9 points per game on 52% shooting on the season, including 82.0 points per game on 52.9% shooting at home.  The one knock on the Flyers is that they don’t defense as well as most of the top teams in the country, which is why many believe they won’t make a deep run in the tournament. 

Davidson has really come on strong in winning four of its last five games.  The OVER is 4-1 in those five games.  The Wildcats have scored at least 72 points in seven of their last eight games overall and are averaging 80.8 points per game during this stretch. 

Davidson and Dayton have combined to average 147.8 points per game in their last five meetings.  Dayton is 7-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Wildcats last five road games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* Lakers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10 

The Los Angeles Lakers will be without MVP candidate LeBron James tonight after a groin strain suffered against the Pelicans on Tuesday.  Asking them to win by double-digits on the road against the Warriors is asking too much without James in the lineup. 

We will ’sell high’ on a Lakers team that has won six straight coming in, and ‘buy low’ on a Warriors team that has lost seven straight coming in.  But the Warriors are getting healthier as Draymond Green is expected to play tonight, and Andrew Wiggins is getting accustomed to their offense and should only continue to improve moving forward. 

Golden State only lost 120-125 at home to the Lakers as 14-point underdogs in their last meeting on February 8th.  Now the Warriors get their shot at revenge just a few weeks later here, but they don’t have to contend with James this time around.  James had 22 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds in that game. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 points or more (LA Lakers) - a hot team having won six or seven of their last eight games that wins at least 75% of their games playing a bad team that wins 25% or less of their games are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Warriors Thursday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5.5 

Off two straight road losses at Colorado & Utah, the USC Trojans return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are a bubble team right now and could certainly use a win over a ranked team like Arizona tonight. 

Jonah Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Nick Rakocevic (11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) both barely played against Utah Sunday due to illness.  Both are healthier now and listed as probable.  This should give the Trojans a big boost.  They are 11-2 SU at home this season. 

Arizona is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Wildcats only beat the Trojans 85-80 at home in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  Now the Trojans are out for revenge and catching 5.5 points at home this time around in the rematch. 

The Trojans are 11-4 ATS in conference games this season.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet USC Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Gonzaga -25.5 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off just their 2nd loss this season with a 78-91 setback at BYU Saturday in one of the best atmospheres this season in all of college basketball.  Look for them to return home highly motivated tonight and to make easy work of San Diego. 

Gonzaga already beat San Diego 94-50 on the road as 15.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  If they can beat them by 44 on the road, the Bulldogs can certainly cover this 25.5-point spread at home. 

San Diego is just 2-12 SU & 5-8-1 ATS in West Coast Conference play this season.  They just lost their last game by 29 at St. Mary’s, which lost by 30 at home to Gonzaga a few weeks back. 

Gonzaga is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. a bad team that wins 20% to 40% of their games over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 35.5 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Gonzaga is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games following an upset loss to a conference opponent.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  Roll with Gonzaga Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -4.5 

The Utah Jazz will be highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping all three games since returning from the All-Star Break.  I know we’re going to get a max effort out of them tonight, so I’m willing to lay the short number at home against the Celtics. 

Boston is in one of the toughest spots in the NBA.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game since the All-Star Break. I have to believe they are out of gas, and playing in altitude in Utah makes it even tougher. 

The Jazz are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with the three wins all coming by 8 points or more.  The Celtics will be without their best player in Kemba Walker once again tonight, while the Jazz are fully healthy coming into this one. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - off three straight ATS wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Utah is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite.  The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 

The Clippers had lost three straight for the first time all season before bouncing back with a 27-point win over Memphis.  They made many comments leading into that game that the time was now to get it together.  I look for them to stay focused at Phoenix tonight and take care of business. 

While we will ‘buy low’ on the Clippers after dropping three of four, we’ll ’sell high’ on the Suns after winning three of their last four.  Two of the wins came against the Bulls and Warriors, but they are coming off a shocking 20-point win at struggling Utah as 8.5-point dogs.  That result has them overvalued.  The Suns will be without Kelly Oubre Jr. tonight with a knee injury as well. 

The Clippers simply own the Suns.  Los Angeles is 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 meetings with the Suns, winning those 13 games by an average of 15.5 points per game.  All things considered, this is a very short number for the Clippers to be laying tonight. 

Plays against underdogs (Phoenix) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent that went under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a road favorite.  Phoenix is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games.  Take the Clippers Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -2.5 

I love the value we are getting with Southern Illinois as only 2.5-point home favorites over Indiana State tonight.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Salukis after they have lost three of their last four coming in.  Two losses came on the road to Northern Iowa and Valpo and the other was a home loss to Bradley by 2 in overtime.  Those are three of the best teams in the conference. 

Southern Illinois has been a juggernaut at home this season.  The Salukis are 12-2 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season.  They have beaten some of the best teams in the MVC at home this year in Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago.  And they want revenge from a 56-68 road loss at Indiana State in their first meeting this season.  They should have their revenge considering the Salukis are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home meetings with the Sycamores. 

Indiana State is yet another MVC team that has been great at home but terrible on the road.  The Sycamores are 3-8 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them off two straight wins over Northern Iowa at home and Evansville on the road by a combined 5 points. 

Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Salukis are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season, winning by 14.8 points per game on average.  The Sycamores are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Salukis are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -5 

Off two straight losses, the Penn State Nittany Lions come back highly motivated for a win tonight against Rutgers.  They also have revenge in mind after falling 61-72 at Rutgers on January 7th.  Expect a big effort from the Nittany Lions tonight because of it. 

Penn State is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game at home this year.  Five of their six Big Ten home wins have come by 6 points or more. 

Rutgers is 1-7 SU in true road games this season with its only win coming at Nebraska.  Six of those seven losses have come by 5 points or more.  I just think this is a generous price to back the Nittany Lions tonight as only 5-point home favorites with all things considered. 

Rutgers is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games off two straight games where it attempts 12 or fewer free throws.  Penn State is 7-0 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Roll with Penn State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Bradley -3.5 

The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the MVC when healthy.  And they just recently got fully healthy with their two best players returning from injury.  The Braves are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Valparaiso. 

Bradley should make easy work of one of the worst teams in the conference in Illinois State tonight.  The Redbirds are just 4-12 SU & 5-11 ATS in MVC play this season.  That includes their 63-75 loss as 8-point underdogs at Bradley in their first meeting this season. 

Bradley owns Illinois State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with those four wins coming by an average of 11.8 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying tonight when they are clearly the superior team. 

The Braves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  The Redbirds are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Illinois State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games overall. Take Bradley Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4 

The SMU Mustangs will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses at Tulane and Tulsa.  They host a Memphis team that they already beat 74-70 on the road earlier this season. 

I like SMU’s chances of bouncing back considering they have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country as well.  The Mustangs are 14-1 at home this season and just upset Houston at home in their last home game.  They are 6-0 at home in AAC play this season. 

Memphis is in a big letdown spot off its 60-59 upset home win over Houston.  The Tigers are 2-4 SU in AAC true road games this year with their two wins coming by a combined 6 points.  Their four losses have come by an average of 14.5 points per game. 

SMU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Memphis.  The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Memphis is 1-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this season.  Take SMU Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Loyola-Chicago -6.5 

Loyola-Chicago has one of the best home-court advantages in the Missouri Valley this season.  They are 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year.  And the Ramblers want revenge from a 62-65 road loss at Drake in their first meeting this season on January 7th. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home in MVC play this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.9 points per game.  They have won six of their eight home games this season by 9 points or more, including wins over Bradley by 11 and Northern Iowa by 9, which are two of the best teams in the conference. 

Drake has been overvalued big-time of late.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins both coming at home against Evansville by 5 and Valpo by 2 in OT.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in MVC road games this season with their only win coming at Evansville, the worst team in the conference. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Drake, winning by an average of 11.8 PPG.  The Ramblers have won by 22, 15 and 15 points in their last three home meetings.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Loyola-Chicago is 15-4 ATS revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  The Ramblers are 12-2 ATS revenging a road loss over the last three years.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Ramblers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.  

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto +1 

The Toronto Raptors are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games overall and coming off a 46-point home win over the Pacers.  And the amount of disrespect they are getting tonight as home underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks is alarming. 

The Bucks are in a terrible spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing overtime to beat the Wizards 137-134 on the road last night as 12.5-point favorites.  It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Bucks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they rest a couple starters. 

Milwaukee is going to have a hard time getting motivated night in and night out here down the stretch because they basically already have the No. 1 seed locked up.  The motivation for the Raptors is obvious as they are trying to fend off the Celtics, Heat and 76ers for the No. 2 seed. 

Toronto is a perfect 12-0 ATS in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 13-27 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three years.  The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.  Toronto is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday. 

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State -8 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a fraudulent team, which is why they are 8-point road underdogs to Michigan State despite having the better record and ranking.  That will show tonight as the Spartans make easy work of the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa has been awful on the road this season.  It is just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its eight Big Ten road games with its two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern and Minnesota.  They lost by 36 at Purdue, by 12 at Indiana, by 12 at Michigan and by 10 at Maryland.  They also were upset by Nebraska on the road and failed to cover in a road loss at Penn State. 

Michigan State is coming off a 21-point win at Nebraska and simply owns the Hawkeyes.  The Spartans are 16-1 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with Iowa.  They have outscored the Hawkeyes by roughly 17 points per game in those 17 meetings. 

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 8-22 ATS in all road games over the last three years.  The Hawkeyes are 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Spartans are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take Michigan State Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11 

These teams are way more evenly matched than this 11-point spread would indicate.  There’s a ton of value taking La Salle (13-13) over Davidson (14-12) as a double-digit underdog tonight. 

The Explorers are coming off two straight wins and covers at home over Fordham and on the road in upset fashion over George Washington by 10.  They have a 3-point loss at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at Duquesne as 9.5-point dogs to prove they can play with some of the best teams in the conference on the road.  They upset Davidson last year by 10 as 6.5-point dogs as well. 

Davidson has failed to cover its last two games coming in.  The Wildcats lost outright as 12.5-point road favorites at St. Joe’s, which is arguably the worst team in the Atlantic 10.  They did beat Rhode Island 77-75 at home over the weekend but didn’t cover as 2.5-point favorites. 

La Salle is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  La Salle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games overall.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8 

The Utah Jazz were upset at home by both the Spurs and Rockets in a back-to-back situation in their first two games back from the All-Star Break.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win tonight against the Phoenix Suns, so I know we are going to get an ‘A’ effort from them. 

The Suns are just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Two of their wins came by single-digits against the Warriors and Bulls, which may be the two worst teams in the entire NBA right now.  Their seven losses came by an average of 15.1 points per game, so they’ve rarely even been competitive. 

The Jazz simply own the Suns.  Utah is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Phoenix with seven wins by double-digits.  They have won those eight games by an average of a whopping 21.3 points per game.  So laying 8 points here is a real discount. 

The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  Roll with the Jazz Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +8 

The Atlanta Hawks have come out of the All-Star Break going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with home wins over Miami and Dallas, two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they have their sights set on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. 

The 76ers are in a world of hurt right now.  They are without two of their three best players in Ben Simmons (16.7 PPG, 8.2 APG, 7.8 RPG) and Tobias Harris (18.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG).  They cannot be 8-point favorites over the Hawks without these two. 

Atlanta is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Philadelphia with its only loss coming by two points, 103-105.  The Hawks were underdogs in all five games and pulled four outright upsets.  They don’t even need to win SU for us to get a win here, they just have to stay within 8 points, which is very likely. 

The Hawks are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Philadelphia.  The Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  Take the Hawks Monday.  

20* Louisville/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5 

The Florida State Seminoles are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Louisville Cardinals.  The Seminoles are 23-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road and three of them by 6 points or fewer. 

Florida State is a perfect 14-0 at home this season and enjoying one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  And keep in mind the Seminoles already beat the Cardinals 78-65 as 6-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 4th. 

Louisville has lost its last two road games in upset fashion to two mediocre teams.  The Cardinals fell 58-64 at Georgia Tech as 6-point favorites and 62-77 at Clemson as 4.5-point favorites.  It’s asking a lot of them to pull the road upset here and hand the Seminoles their first home loss of the season. 

Louisville is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Florida State Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2 

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after falling to the Suns 104-112 at home last night.  That followed up a 93-103 home loss to the Hornets.  And now the Wizards will take their turn today. 

The Bulls have lost eight straight games and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are a mash unit right now playing without Markkanen, Dunn, Porter Jr., Hutchison, Kornet and Valentine.  They could get Wendell Carter Jr. back today, but it won’t matter. 

The Wizards continue to show up every night.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall, which includes their 126-114 home win over Bulls going into the break.  They want to even the season series after losing the first two meetings to Chicago this season. 

Chicago is 2-13 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 4-17 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last two years.  The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Bulls are 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games, including 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

15* Maryland/Ohio State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing well and ready to take down Maryland today.  They are favored for good reason.  They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 7th.  They’ll have their revenge Sunday. 

The Buckeyes are 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Wisconsin and Iowa.  They also upset Michigan on the road and beat Northwestern on the road.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Maryland, which has won nine straight games coming in.  They did not play well at home against Northwestern last time out and only won by 9 as 14-point favorites.  It’s a case of their heads getting too big and lacking the focus they need to beat a team as good as Ohio State on the road today. 

The Buckeyes are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite.  The Terrapins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Ohio State Sunday. 

20* Celtics/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -6.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from their worst loss this season.  They lost 107-139 in Boston on January 20th in a complete no shot.  The Celtics shot 55.9% as a team and 47.1% from 3-point range while making 16 3-pointers.  That’s not going to happen again. 

While the Lakers are fully healthy for the rematch, the Celtics will be without their leader in Kemba Walker, who averages 21.8 points and 5.0 assists per game this season.  I don’t give the Celtics much of a chance of winning this game without Walker. 

The Lakers were 2.5-point road favorites in that first meeting, and now are only 6.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  That’s only a 4-point adjustment, which isn’t enough for home-court advantage changing hands.  The Celtics are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Celtics because of it. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  Bet the Lakers Sunday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6 

This is a great spot to fade the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Orlando last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hawks, who had yesterday off and will be the fresher team. 

Atlanta has pulled some impressive home upsets and hung with some very good teams at home in the 2nd half of the season.  They are coming off a 129-124 upset win over Miami as 6-point home dogs.  They upset the Clippers as 5-point dogs and the 76ers as 6-point dogs.  They only lost by 5 to Toronto and by 8 to Boston.  In fact, in their last 12 home games, they have either won outright or lost by single-digits in 11 of them. 

Atlanta will also be revenge-minded tonight after losing earlier this month at Dallas 100-123.  The Hawks haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home.  And they get a shot at revenge here in Atlanta just a few weeks later. 

The Hawks own the Mavericks, going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Atlanta is 13-5 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Hawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  The Mavericks are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Atlanta.  Roll with the Hawks Saturday. 

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +15 

Few teams have come as close to beating San Diego State (26-0) as UNLV did a few weeks back.  The Runnin’ Rebels only lost 67-71 as 7-point home dogs to the Aztecs.  Now they’re highly motivated for revenge and to pull off the shocker in the rematch. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the unbeaten Aztecs, who have also managed to cover five in a row coming in.  Oddsmakers are forced to set this number higher than it should be knowing the public is going to continue pounding San Diego State. 

UNLV comes in playing well with three wins in their last four games.  Their only loss was a 3-point setback to Nevada in overtime.  They beat Fresno State at home and Colorado State by 24 at home, while also upsetting New Mexico on the road.  It’s a team that is proving rapidly under one of the most underrated head coaches in college basketball in T.J. Otzelberger. 

Otzelberger is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games as a head coach.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UNLV) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight wins over conference opponents are 62-33 (65.3%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with UNLV Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +9.5 

The Washington Huskies have no business being 9.5-point favorites against Cal tonight.  The Huskies are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Asking them to win this game is asking a lot, let alone asking them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to beat us. 

California is improving rapidly as the season goes on.  The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with only two losses by double-digits during this stretch.  They hung tough in a 6-point road loss at Colorado as 16-point dogs and are coming off an upset at Washington State as 6.5-point dogs in a 9-point win. 

California already beat Washington 61-58 as 6.5-point home dogs.  And the Golden Bears have a huge rest advantage coming into this game.  They come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday while Washington played on Thursday in a 64-72 home loss to Stanford.  The Huskies only have one day in between games here. 

Washington is 0-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games overall.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Golden Bears today.  Bet California Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

This is an awful spot for San Francisco.  The Dons had a golden opportunity to beat Gonzaga on Thursday, leading by 9 at halftime.  But they were dominated in the 2nd half and lost 54-71.  It’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice. 

There’s no way San Francisco is going to be able to get up for Pepperdine today.  They won’t be focused for this game, which will make it tough to cover this lofty 8-point spread. Not to mention, the Dons are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall anyway, so it’s not like they are playing well coming in. 

Pepperdine has been impressive here down the stretch as they are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games overall.  Two of those losses were by single-digits.  Pepperdine is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with San Francisco with just one loss coming by more than 7 points. 

The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Pepperdine is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better over the last two years.  Take Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5 

The Syracuse Orange are desperate for a win to get back in the NCAA Tournament discussion.  They have dropped five of their last six against a gauntlet of a schedule with the losses coming to Duke, FSU, Louisville, Clemson and NC State with three of those losses on the road.  Only one of the losses came by double-digits, so they proved they could play with the best. 

Now the Orange get a break in the schedule here with Georgia Tech coming to town.  It’s a Yellow Jackets team that they already beat 97-63 on the road in their first meeting this season.  It’s a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets because you need to be able to make 3-pointers to be able to beat Syracuse.  Well, Georgia Tech ranks 323rd in the country in 3-point shooting (30.1%).  Bet Syracuse Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -2.5 

The George Washington Colonials are quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with some very impressive wins along the way. 

Indeed, the Colonials are coming off two straight upset road wins at George Mason as 6-point dogs and at Duquesne as 10-point dogs.  They also upset Davidson at home and UMass on the road during this stretch.  They should be a bigger favorite over La Salle today. 

La Salle is 3-10 in Atlantic 10 play this season with its only wins coming against Fordham (twice) and St. Joseph’s, which are the two worst teams in the conference.  George Washington is 14-4 SU & 11-6-1 ATS in it last 18 home meetings with La Salle. 

The Explorers are 1-8 ATS in road games off a conference home win over the last three seasons.  The Colonials are 7-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  La Salle is 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take George Washington Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri State PK 

The Missouri State Bears are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-2 SU but 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road at Southern Illinois by 2 at the buzzer and at Bradley in overtime.  Those are two of the best teams in the MVC. 

They also went on the road and won by 13 at Indiana State, crushed Drake by 35 at home and crushed Illinois State by 20 at home.  Now they want revenge from a 58-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 6-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on January 4th.  With the way they are playing right now, they will get their revenge at home. 

Loyola-Chicago has played very poorly on the road in MVC play this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  They lost by 5 at Northern Iowa, by 5 at Southern Illinois and by 29 at Indiana State.  Their only road win was against the worst team in the MVC in Evansville, and they only won that game by 7 points and failed to cover the number. 

Dana Ford is 10-2 ATS after two straight games where his team was called for 22 or more fouls in all games he has coached.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-13 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 11-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +1 

The Xavier Musketeers are coming up clutch here down the stretch with their NCAA Tournament lives at stake.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming at Butler by 5 as 5.5-point dogs. 

They went on the road and upset Seton Hall by 12 as 9-point dogs, upset DePaul on the road by 8 as 1-point dogs and also beat Providence at home and St. John’s on the road.  Now they’ve love to get revenge on Villanova from a 62-68 road loss in their first meeting this season. 

The Wildcats certainly have been vulnerable here of late.  They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only wins came against DePaul, Temple and Marquette by 1.  They were upset at home by both Creighton and Seton Hall and also lost on the road at Butler.  This Villanova team isn’t nearly as strong as some of Jay Wright’s teams in recent years. 

Villanova is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Xavier is 10-3 SU at home this season.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Xavier Saturday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5 

I love the spot for the Purdue Boilermakers Saturday.  They are coming off three straight losses to Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory when they host Michigan today. 

Purdue is 17-2 SU in Big Ten home games since last season.  The Boilermakers have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country.  And that has been on display this season with wins by 29 over Virginia, by 29 over Michigan State, by 19 over Wisconsin and by 36 over Iowa in four of their most impressive home performances. 

Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Wolverines.  They are coming off a win at Rutgers on Wednesday, which ended a 17-0 start at home for the Scarlet Knights.  It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Wolverines here Saturday. 

Purdue wants revenge from a 78-84 (OT) road loss at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  And the Wolverines may not have leading scorer Isaiah Livers (13.3 PPG), who sat out that Rutgers game with an ankle injury.  Michigan only has two days to get ready for Purdue while the Boilermakers have three days to get ready after last playing on Tuesday. 

Purdue is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after covering six or seven of its last eight games.  Matt Painter is 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of Purdue.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Purdue Saturday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Jazz OVER 222.5 

The Spurs have been one of the best ‘OVER’ teams in the NBA this season.  They are 33-20-1 to the OVER on the year.  They are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA ranking 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are giving up 116.4 points per game on the road this year. 

The Jazz are a much improved offensive team this season.  They have scored 114 points or more in four straight games and 109 or more in 16 of their last 19 games overall.  But they have allowed 101 or more points in nine of their last 10 games coming in. 

The Spurs beat the Jazz 127-120 at home for 247 combined points in their lone meeting this season on January 29th.  The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  Expect more of the same here tonight. 

The Spurs are 9-0 OVER in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  The OVER is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 games playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The OVER is 11-5 in Jazz last 16 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* VCU/Saint Louis ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Saint Louis +2 

The Saint Louis Billikens are 18-8 this season and a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They need a big finish here to make the dance, and they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight because of it. 

The Billikens should not be home underdogs to the VCU Rams tonight.  Saint Louis is 12-3 at home this season with their only losses coming to Seton Hall, Dayton (by 2 in OT) and Duquesne.  Those are two of the best teams in the country and a bubble team in Duquesne. 

VCU is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall, so it is getting way too much respect from the books with how it is playing of late.  The Rams lost by 12 at Rhode Island and by 18 at Richmond in their two road games during this stretch.  They were also upset by George Mason as 14.5-point home favorites and fell to Dayton by 5 at home on Tuesday. 

VCU Is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Billikens are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games off a road loss.  VCU is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as an underdog.  Take Saint Louis. 

15* Nuggets/Thunder ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the single most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They are 33-22 SU & 36-19 ATS on the year.  And they continue to lack the respect they deserve as only 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets tonight. 

The Thunder should come out of the All-Star Break highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They know they have lost seven straight to the Nuggets in this series, including a 102-110 road loss in their only meeting this year.  That will be a topic of discussion and will be a huge motivation factor for them tonight. 

Oklahoma City is 18-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.  Oklahoma City is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  Take the Thunder Friday. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +9.5 

The USC Trojans are playing too well right now to be catching 9.5 points from the Colorado Buffaloes.  The Trojans are 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only lost one of those 11 games by more than 9 points. 

That was a shocking 57-78 home loss to Colorado as 1.5-point favorites on February 1st.  And that place right into my handicap here with the Trojans out for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season.  They will simply want this game more tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning four of their last five games overall.  But in their two home games during this stretch, they failed to cover both in a 6-point home win over Cal as 16-point favorites and a 7-point home win over Stanford as 8.5-point favorites. 

USC was able to win and cover its last two games with a 62-56 home win as 2-point favorites over Washington and a 70-51 home win over Washington State as 7-point favorites despite playing without leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Onyeka Okongwu (16.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.0 BPG).  Well, Okongwu returns from a concussion tonight to give them a huge boost. 

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in true road games this season.  USC is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Bet USC Thursday. 

20* Nets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Brooklyn +8.5 

The Brooklyn Nets continue to play well without Kyrie Irving, which has been the case all season.  They are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses coming by 1 and 6 points on the road.  They are catching too many points against Philadelphia tonight. 

The 76ers had both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons in the All-Star game, while the Nets didn’t have anyone and will be the fresher, more motivated team coming out of the break because of it.  Look for them to make a statement and give the 76ers a run for their money tonight. 

The Nets have outscored the 76ers by 3 points total in their three meetings this season despite losing two of the three.  So they’ve proven they can play with them, and I like their chances of staying within 8.5 points tonight. 

Brooklyn is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 road games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  Bet the Nets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +5 

The Chicago Bulls are a mess right now due to all their injuries.  They are without Otto Porter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr, Kris Dunn, Chandler Hutchison and Denzel Valentine.  Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are fully healthy coming out of the All-Star Break. 

It’s no wonder the Bulls were terrible going into the break.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have lost six straight with all six losses coming by 6 points or more and by an average of 12.7 points per game.  They can’t be favored by 5 over the Hornets tonight. 

The Hornets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS against the Bulls this season with their only loss coming by a single point at home.  Charlotte pulled two road upsets over Detroit and Minnesota in its final two games coming into the break.  I simply believe they are the better team right now and should not be catching points, let alone 5 points. 

Chicago is 0-8 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Hornets are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Thursday. 

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play.  They have won all six of their Big Ten home games by 5 points or more and should easily cover this 2.5-point spread tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Ohio State after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  Three of those five wins came at home while the two road wins came at Northwestern and Michigan (by 3).  The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Buckeyes are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Iowa is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.   

The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this year.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers -2.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are still a perfect 17-0 at home this season and coming off a 15-point home win over a very good Illinois team.  I expect them to make easy work of Michigan at home tonight as well. 

The Wolverines are starting to get too much respect from the books again after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them as their two road wins during this stretch were against the two worst teams in the Big Ten in Nebraska and Northwestern. 

Rutgers will be the more motivated team because they want revenge from a 63-69 loss to Michigan on February 1st just a few weeks ago.  It’s going to be a raucous atmosphere inside The Rac for the rematch tonight as the Scarlet Knights look to remain unbeaten at home. 

Rutgers are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Scarlet Knights are 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* Syracuse/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +9 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on Syracuse after losing four of their last five coming in.  But all four losses came by 9 points or less.  They lost at Clemson by 1, at Florida State by 3, at home to NC State by 5 and at home to Duke by 9. 

That’s a brutal schedule and the fact that they hung tough in every game makes me believe they’ll have no problem staying within 9 points of Louisville tonight.  The Orange have won their last two meetings with the Cardinals, winning 69-49 at home and 78-73 on the road as 7-point dogs. 

Louisville isn’t playing well enough to be laying 9 points here.  They are 2-2 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset as 6-point favorites at Georgia Tech and lost by 15 as 4.5-point favorites at Clemson.  They only beat Virginia by 7 at home and failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites against Wake Forest in a 10-point win. 

The Orange are 12-4 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games this season.  Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -4.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the best teams in the country and probably the best team in the Big East in my opinion.  Off two tough losses to Creighton (by 5) and Providence (by 3), I fully expect the Pirates to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against Butler. 

Seton Hall went on the road and beat Butler 78-70 in their first meeting this season despite shooting just 41.4% overall and 29% from 3-point range.  They should have no problem covering the 4.5 points at home this time around as we would expect them to be more efficient from the floor. 

It’s clear now that Butler’s 15-1 start was fraudulent.  The Bulldogs have gone 4-6 SU & 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games since.  Their four wins during this stretch all came by 5 points or less, and their six losses have come by an average 11.0 points per game.  They were just upset by Georgetown as 12-point home favorites.  And three of their last four road games have resulted in losses by 13 points or more. 

Butler is 1-10 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 3-14 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last three years.  Butler is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 road games off a home loss.  The Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Pirates are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall, including 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Take Seton Hall Wednesday. 

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV -1 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on UNLV here as a short home favorite over Colorado State.  They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five losses coming against the best teams in the Mountain West. 

The Runnin’ Rebels barely lost at home to unbeaten San Diego State by 4 and Nevada by 3 in OT.  The other three losses came on the road to Utah State, Nevada and Colorado State.  That road loss to the Rams placed the Runnin’ Rebels in revenge mode tonight as they get them at home this time around. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on a Colorado State team that has gone 9-2 SU in its last 11 games overall.  They have taken advantage of a soft schedule not having to play San Diego State during this stretch.  And they’ve lost both games against the best team they faced in Utah State. 

UNLV is 19-4 SU in its last 23 home meetings with Colorado State.  The Runnin’ Rebels basically just have to win to cover at home tonight.  They’ll get their revenge on the Rams in this one.  Roll with UNLV Tuesday. 

20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2.5 

This is a huge game for the LSU Tigers tonight.  They have dropped three of their last four games coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  This stretch followed a 10-game winning streak dating back to non-conference play. 

But all three of those losses came on the road, including an OT loss to Auburn and a 6-point loss at Alabama.  LSU is a dominant 13-1 at home this season and basically just need to win to cover this short number against Kentucky tonight. 

Kentucky has road losses to South Carolina and Auburn in SEC play this season.  They barely survived at home last time out over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites.  And I just don’t think this Kentucky team is as strong as many of the ones we’ve seen in year’s past. 

Kentucky is 0-8 ATS off three of more consecutive wins this season.  LSU is 17-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 points.  Bet LSU Tuesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Butler by 4 (OT) and at Villanova by 1. 

Marquette is 12-1 at home this season and should be able to cover this short number against Creighton.  The Golden Eagles will have a huge rest advantage having last played on February 12th while Creighton last played on February 15th.  Basically, Marquette gets five days to prepare for Creighton while the Bluejays only have two. 

No question Creighton is playing well also having won seven of their last eight games overall.  But I just think Marquette is going to want this one more, especially considering they are out for revenge from a loss at Creighton in their first meeting this season on January 1st. 

Creighton is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  Marquette is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Marquette Tuesday. 

20* Xavier/St. John’s Big East No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5 

The Xavier Musketeers have played themselves back into the NCAA Tournament conversation.  They cannot afford a loss to St. John’s now, and I look for them to handle their business on the road here Monday night. 

Xavier has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They upset Seton Hall by 12 a 9-point dogs, upset DePaul and topped Providence at home.  They only lost by 5 at Butler as 5.5-point dogs. 

St. John’s is 3-9 in Big East play this season with two of its wins against DePaul and the other against Providence.  The Red Storm just lost second-leading scorer Mustafa Heron (13.8 PPG) to an ankle injury and couldn’t afford to lose him. 

Xavier owns St. John’s, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings.  They basically just have to win to cover tonight.  The Musketeers are 6-0 ATS after covering four of their last five ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Xavier Monday. 

15* Memphis/UConn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4 

The UConn Huskies are playing well right now going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only losses came on the road at Memphis by 7 and on the road at SMU by 4.  They beat Temple by 15 at home, upset Cincinnati at home and upset Tulsa by 16 on the road. 

Now the Huskies want revenge from their 63-70 road loss at Memphis on February 1st.  They get an extra day to rest and prepare having three days off in between games.  Memphis only has two days off since its deflating OT loss at Cincinnati on Thursday.  That followed up an upset home loss to South Florida as 9-point favorites. 

UConn is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season.  Memphis is 2-3 SU in AAC road games this season while getting outscored by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Their two wins came by a combined 6 points over UCF and USF. 

Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  UConn is 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Huskies are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.  UConn is 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 home games overall.  Roll with UConn Sunday. 

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are highly motivated for a win Sunday.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with tough road losses at Illinois and Penn State and a home loss to Michigan State.  They did beat Wisconsin by 18 in between at home. 

Minnesota is also out for revenge from a 52-72 road loss at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  Now the Gophers get the Hawkeyes at home this time around, where they are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  And the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has been huge. 

Iowa is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in Big Ten road games this season, losing those six games by an average of 13.2 points per game.  They just lost by 12 at Indiana on Thursday, who had lost four straight prior to that game.  Adding injury to insult is that they lost their best shooter in C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.7% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury in that defeat. 

Minnesota has a huge rest advantage in this game was well.  They have had seven days off in between games having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only has two days off to get ready for Minnesota after playing Indiana on February 13th. 

Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Iowa is 7-22 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 14-3 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Minnesota Sunday. 

15* Villanova/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Temple +6.5 

The Temple Owls have turned the corner here in their last four games and are playing well enough to hang with a team like Villanova.  This is a huge rivalry game and the Owls will want this one more today in the home underdog role. 

Temple is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The only loss came at Memphis. They beat ECU by 12 at home and upset SMU by 7 at home.  They also went on the road and covered in a win at Tulane. 

Villanova is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Creighton and Seton Hall and also nearly lost to Marquette in a 1-point win as 6-point favorites.  They lost on the road at Butler as well.  It’s a solid Villanova team, but definitely one of the worst Villanova teams in the last decade. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS in February home games over the last three seasons.  Villanova is 2-9 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Villanova is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers once again today.  Take Temple Sunday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -1.5 

Seton Hall should come back motivated for a win after an upset home loss to Creighton on Wednesday.  The good news for the Pirates is that they’ve actually played better on the road than at home, and we are getting them at a tremendous value today. 

Indeed, Seton Hall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in Big East road games this season.  That includes upset wins over Xavier, Butler and Villanova.  And they already beat Providence at home this season while shooting 57.8% and holding the Friars to just 35.9% shooting. 

Providence is 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall.  They have lost at home to both Villanova and Butler this season and don’t stand much of a chance of beating a team that caliber of Seton Hall, which is the best team in the Big East. 

The Pirates are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog.  Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday. 

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina -3.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They have won seven of their last nine games overall and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  We are getting them at a tremendous value as only 3.5-point home favorites over Tennessee today. 

The most remarkable part of this 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run is that the Gamecocks have played six of those 10 games on the road.  All three of their losses came on the highway.  South Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home games upsetting Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog, and crushing Vanderbilt by 26, Missouri by 22 and Texas A&M by 20. 

Now the Gamecocks want revenge from a tough 55-56 road loss at Tennessee on January 11th in their first meeting.  The Vols have a plethora of injuries right now and just aren’t playing well, going 2-4 SU in their last six games overall.  They are without Turnver (12.3 PPG) and could be without both Pons (11.2 PPG) and James (7.8 PPG), who are questionable. 

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  South Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet South Carolina Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +2 

The SMU Mustangs want revenge from a 62-71 road loss at Houston on January 15th.  I fully expect them to get their revenge at home this time around considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

SMU is an impressive 13-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight with ranked rival Houston coming to town.  And the Mustangs still have a chance to win the AAC but must knock off the Cougars here. 

Houston came away with a fortunate 62-58 win at South Florida as 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday.  The Cougars trailed most the way until the final minutes.  Their luck runs out tonight at SMU. 

Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  SMU is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 Saturday games.  Take SMU Saturday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Richmond -1.5 

Richmond wants revenge from a 68-87 road loss at VCU on January 28th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since that game and I trust the Spiders to get the job done at home tonight in the rematch. 

Richmond is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games.  That includes a 22-point home win over George Washington and a 27-point road win at La Salle.  The Spiders are 10-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Dayton and Saint Louis. 

VCU is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three games since Richmond.  They lost by 12 at Rhode Island and were upset by George Mason at home as 14.5-point favorites.  Marcus Evans (10.3 PPG) suffered a knee injury in that loss to George Mason and is very questionable to play today. 

The Rams are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog, including 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.  The Spiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Richmond Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor -5.5 

The Baylor Bears have won 21 straight games with little to no signs of slowing down.  They are 11-0 at home this season and winning by 15.7 points per game.  They should handle West Virginia tonight. 

The Mountaineers are 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming at Oklahoma State, which may be the worst team in the conference.  They lost by 8 at Texas Tech, by 16 at Kansas State and by 10 at Oklahoma in their last three road games coming in.  I don’t see how they’re supposed to cover here against Baylor with their track record on the road this season. 

West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Baylor Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +6 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who have lost nine straight coming in and are highly motivated for a victory.  But the Huskers are playing much better than their record would indicate as they are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska upset Iowa 76-70 as 8-point home dogs and Purdue 70-56 as 13-point home dogs.  They only lost by 3 at Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs and just took Maryland to the wire in a 70-72 road loss as 17.5-point dogs.  Now they want revenge from a 68-82 road loss at Wisconsin on January 21st.  The Huskers only trailed 38-39 at halftime before falling apart in the second half. 

Wisconsin is 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS in all road games this season.  The Badgers are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Big Ten road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue, by 6 at Iowa and by 18 at Minnesota. 

The Huskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 0-6 ATS off a conference win this season.  Wisconsin is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Badgers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Nebraska Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +1.5 

Southern Illinois had won seven straight before suffering one of its worst losses of the season at Valparaiso on Wednesday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against defending MVC champ Bradley, and that loss should have them refocused. 

Now Southern Illinois wants revenge from a 48-67 road loss at Bradley in their first meeting this season.  Well, SIU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC.  The Salukis are 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season with wins over the likes of Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago, which are arguably the two best teams in the MVC. 

While Southern Illinois is 6-0 SU at home in Missouri Valley play, Bradley is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  That includes very bad losses to St. Joe’s and Miami Ohio out of conference.  And one of their wins was against Evansville, the worst team in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 15-5 SU In its last 20 home meetings with Bradley.  The Salukis are 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Braves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite.  The Salukis are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

20* Davidson/St. Bonaventure ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -4 

St. Bonaventure has rebounded from a tough 1-4 start this season.  Interestingly, their lone win was against an NCAA Tournament team in Rutgers.  They have gone 16-4 since and have been flying under the radar in the Atlantic 10 this season. 

St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall coming in.  The Bonnies have only played 10 home games compared to 15 road games this season.  They are 7-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games and should be able to handle Davidson tonight. 

Davidson has been overvalued all season.  The Wildcats have been terrible on the road, going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their 14 games played away from home.  That includes 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS records in their last seven true road games with their only win coming at Fordham, which is 1-10 in Atlantic 10 play and one of the worst teams in the conference. 

St. Bonaventure is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Davidson is 1-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bonnies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Bonnies are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday.