15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -9.5

The USC Trojans are certainly a team to keep your eye on this season.  Andy Enfield enters Year 3 here with by far his best team yet.  The Trojans didn't lose a single player who started a game in 2014-15.  Their heralded 2014 recruiting class is a year older, and they've added a pair of four-star recruits in forward Benny Boatwright and center Chimezie Metu.

All five returning starters are back in Jordan McClaughlin (12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg), Katin Reinhardt (12.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg), Julian Jacobs (8.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Elijah Stewart (6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (12.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  This is a core group that improved as the season went on, but suffered and absurd amount of close losses in Pac-12 play.  Look for those losses to start turning into wins in 2015-16.

I like what I saw from USC in its opener, an 83-45 beat down of San Diego as 12.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 25.5 points.  McLaughlin (20), Steward (14), Jacobs (11) and Boatwright (10) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Trojans.  But the defense was even more impressive, limiting San Diego to 15-of-61 (24.6%) shooting.

This is a massive letdown spot for Monmouth.  It beat UCLA 84-81 on the road as 15-point underdogs in its opener, and it is clearly overvalued after that result.  The Bruins gave the game away by committing 23 turnovers despite outrebounding Monmouth 60-37 for the game.  Rebounding could be an issue again for Monmouth against USC, which outrebounded San Diego 55-36.  UCLA also escaped with an 88-83 win over Cal Poly last night, so it's clear that the Bruins aren't great this year.

Plays on a favorite (USC) - after allowing 50 points or less, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on a favorite (USC) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with USC Monday.

20* Texans/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +10.5

Because the Bengals are 8-0 straight up and 7-0-1 against the spread this season, the betting public is quick to continue backing them.  Oddsmakers know this, and thus they have to shade the line in the Bengals' favor to try and get even action on both side.  This has created some excellent line value to swoop in and back the double-digit underdog Texans.

That's especially the case with the great spot the Texans are in.  They are coming off a season-saving 20-6 win over the Titans last week in which their defense came through with their best performance of the season, limiting Tennessee to just 211 total yards and forcing three turnovers.  At 3-5, most teams wouldn't be able to come back and make the playoffs, but that's not the case for the Texans.

Houston only trails Indianapolis 0.5 games in the AFC East and can pull into a first-place tie with a win.  That's why I love the motivation of this Texans team right now, and they had to have a much more enjoyable bye week after their 14-point win over the Titans.  They have had two weeks to get rested, healthy, and prepared to face the Bengals.  That's a huge advantage coming into this game.  The Bengals are so far out in front of the Steelers in the AFC North that they can afford to take their foot off the gas, too.

Cincinnati backers were rewarded laying double-digits last week in a 31-10 win over the Johnny Manziel-led Browns.  But that was a 7-point game into the fourth quarter.  And the Browns are a mess right now.  So after winning last week by laying the big points, the betting public won't be scared to do so again this week.  The problem for the public is that the Texans are a much more formidable opponent than Manziel and the Browns.

Statistically, the Texans are a much better team than their 3-5 record would indicate.  They actually rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 18.5 yards per game.  The Bengals are 7th in yardage differential to compare.  The Texans have an underrated offense that ranks 9th in the NFL at 369.4 yards per game.  They also have a respectable defense that is 14th and one that I believe will only get better as the season goes on.

Houston is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cincinnati.  It will be out for revenge from a 22-13 home loss to the Bengals late in the season last year that ultimately cost the Texans a playoff spot.  Had they won that game, they would have been in the postseason.  Things like that are not forgotten, and the Texans are really looking at this as a must-win game here.

Plays on underdogs with a poor rushing offense (3.5 YPR or less) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 YPR or more) after 8-plus games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on road teams who are slow starters that are outscored by 5 or more points per game at halftime, after allowing 6 points or less last game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  This trend just shows how teams who continue covering spreads are overvalued in the second half of the season.  The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 90 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game.  Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Cincinnati.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

It's time to buy low on the Houston Rockets tonight as they come into this game with three straight losses straight up and against the spread.  It's also time to sell high on the Boston Celtics as they come in off a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS stretch. I believe the Rockets are simply undervalued here as only 5-point home favorites after these recent results.

But the Rockets have been playing without Dwight Howard for almost half of the season in the early going, and they're 1-3 without him.  They are allowing an average of 57.3 points in the paint in their last three games without him compared to 48.7 in the six games he's played.  The good news is that Howard is expected to return to the lineup tonight, so the defense is going to be much better.

Houston has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Boston, and it is 4-0 in its last four home meetings.  Its last four home wins have come by 14, 24, 12 and 16 points, or by an average of 16.5 points per game.  I believe another double-digit home win for the Rockets is in store tonight.

Boston is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Celtics are 47-77 ATS in its last 124 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Houston is 16-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Rockets going 4-0 ATS.  Take the Rockets Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7

The UCLA Bruins will be highly motivated for a win today after getting upset by Monmouth 81-84 in their opener.  They committed 23 turnovers and only forced 7 to essentially give the game away.  Look for the Bruins to shore up those turnover issues and to come back with a much better effort Sunday.

This is a UCLA team that won 22 games last year and advanced to the Sweet 16.  They have three starters back from that team in Bryce Alford (15.4 ppg, 4.9 apg), Tony Parker (11.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Isaac Hamilton (10.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg).  Parker is going to be one of the best players in the country this season.  He had 19 points and 19 rebounds against Monmouth.

Cal Poly is coming off a 72-74 loss at UNLV.  It trailed by double-digits in the second half before coming back to make it close late, which I believe is keeping this line against UCLA smaller than it should be.  The Mustangs returned three starters this season from a team that went just 13-16 last year.

Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  UCLA is 31-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.  UCLA is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games overall.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3

Remember last year when the Seahawks were 3-3 to start the season an everyone was panicking. They went on to finish 12-4 and earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Well, they opened an even worse 2-4 this year and everyone was panicking again. But they’ve reeled off two straight victories since with a 20-3 win at San Francisco and a 13-12 win at Dallas. They are now 4-4 and only two games behind the Cardinals in the NFC West. If they want to win the division this year, they cannot afford to lose this game.

The Seahawks outgained the 49ers by 246 yards and the Cowboys by 103 yards in their last two games, so they clearly have gotten it together. Their defense has gotten back to being the most dominant in the league. They held the 49ers to just 142 total yards and the Cowboys to 220. Now I look for them to shut down this overrated Arizona offense this week to help aid the victory.

Seattle has held a lead in the 4th quarter in every game this season and could easily be 8-0. But it lost to four very good teams including three on the road. The Seahawks’ four losses have come to Carolina, Cincinnati, Green Bay and St. Louis, who are a combined 26-6 this season. So they have fell victim to a tough early schedule. But again, they held a 4th quarter lead in every game they lost despite the difficulty of the schedule.

Arizona is way overvalued due to its 6-2 start this season. Its six wins have come against New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore and Cleveland. Those six teams are a combined 15-36 this season, and none of the six currently owns even a .500 record, let alone a winning record. Even the losses were suspect as they fell 22-24 at home to the Rams and 13-25 on the road to the Steelers, who were playing without Ben Roethlisberger. This team has simply taken advantage of a very easy schedule to this point.

Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings. It is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all four wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 28.8 points per game. They have outscored the Cardinals by a combined 108 points in those five meetings even when you factor in their 17-10 home loss. One thing that really stands out to me is that Seattle has been favored by 9.5, 8, and 10.5 in its last three home meetings with Arizona. Now it is only a 3-point favorite, which just shows how much Arizona is being overvalued right now.

While Russell Wilson has figured out Arizona’s defense to the tune of 31.2 points per game in the last five meetings, this Seattle defense has shut down Arizona. The Cardinals have only averaged 9.6 points per game in their last five meetings with Seattle. The Cardinals are running the football better this year, but they are still a pass-first team. That bodes well for the Seahawks, who rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 186.4 yards per game.

The Seahawks simply do not lose at home. They are 28-3 in all home games over the past four seasons as the 12th man is the real deal. Seattle is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  This may be the last time you get Seattle at a discount, so take advantage this week.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +5

The Utah Jazz conclude a tough 4-game road trip with a game against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They have opened 0-3 on this trip and they do not want to go back home without a win.  Look for the Jazz to be laying it all on the line tonight against the Hawks as a result.

Utah may be 0-3 on this trip, but it could easily be 2-1.  It only lost 114-118 at Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs and 91-92 at Miami as 3.5-point dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Jazz ran out of gas in playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days in a 93-102 loss at Orlando last time out.  But they've had a day to recoup before this game.

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They already have four wins by 6 points or less this year.  They were without head coach Mike Budenholzer for family reasons in a 93-106 loss to Boston in their last game on Friday.  They are expected to be without Budenholzer again tonight, and they certainly miss his leadership and X's and O's.

Utah is also going to be motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak to Atlanta.  The last three have come by 6, 3 and 2 points, so they've been very close.  In fact, six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well.

The Jazz are 36-23 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Utah is 20-9 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in over the past two years.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Broncos AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City +6

This is a great spot for the Chiefs. They have turned their season around in their last two games with back-to-back double-digit wins over the Steelers and Lions. They beat the Steelers 23-13 at home before crushing the Lions 45-10 in London. Now they have had two weeks off to continue to improve as a team under Andy Reid.

It is a proven fact that Reid is one of the best head coaches all-time at coming up with a game plan when given two weeks to prepare. Indeed, Reid was 13-1 straight up in Philadelphia off a bye, and he's now 14-2 after going 1-1 with the Chiefs thus far. He is known for giving his players a full week off, while under the CBA terms, players only get a mandatory four days off on a bye week. Rex Ryan was previously 1-5 off a bye, but changed it up and took a page from Reid’s book last week. He gave the Bills a full week off, and they responded with a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins.

The Chiefs have plenty of motivation heading into this one. They have lost seven straight to the Broncos, and the last time they lost eight in row in this series was all the way back from 1976 to 1979. They gave away the game in their first meeting in a 24-31 home loss as the Broncos scored 14 points in the final 36 seconds. The Chiefs uncharacteristically committed five turnovers in that game to hand Denver the win. In their other seven games this season, they have only committed a combined three turnovers just to prove how fluky that game was.

The reason the Chiefs have a chance to pull the upset in this game is because their defense is finally playing up to their potential. The Chiefs have held their last four opponents to 18 points or less, and an average of 14.3 points per game. This defense is loaded at every level and is especially good at getting after opposing quarterbacks. That will be key against the struggling Peyton Manning, who has thrown nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions this year. He has thrown at least one interception in all eight games this season.

Injuries and suspensions to several key players for the Broncos will hamper them this week.  Manning is banged up with a foot injury, though he's expected to play.  Emmanuel Sanders has an ankle injury that kept him out of practice Friday, and he's questionable.  On defense, LB Demarcus Ware is out with a back injury.  That will allow the Chiefs O-Line to focus on Von Miller.  The Broncos will also be without their top cornerback in Aqib Talib, who has been suspended for this one.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) – after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 102-59 (63.4%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 24-11 ATS in its last 25 games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +11

The Green Bay Packers weren't as good as everyone thought they were during their 6-0 start to the season.  They never once covered the spread by more than a touchdown in those first six games, and they have finally been exposed the past two weeks against better-quality teams.  Green Bay was outgained by 360 yards in a 10-29 loss at Denver and by 25 yards in a 29-37 loss at Carolina, which was nowhere near as close as the final score showed as the Packers got some late yardage and points in the 4th quarter to make it interesting.

In fact, the Packers have now been outgained in four straight games and in five of eight games this season.  They actually rank a woeful 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 41.2 yards per game on the season.  Aaron Rodgers is perceived to be the best QB in the league, and while he may be, this offense just isn't getting it done.  The Packers actually rank just 25th in total offense this year at 340.9 yards per game.

Statistically, these teams are almost equals as the Lions are getting outgained by 48.0 yards per game this year, which is only 6.8 yards more than the Packers.  But this 11-point spread would indicate that the Packers are by far the superior team, but that's simply not the case.  Rodgers clearly misses Jordy Nelson because his receivers aren't getting much separation outside of Randall Cobb.  Everything is just coming much tougher for this offense than it did in year's past.

It's not just the offense, though.  The defense has surrendered an average of 275 passing yards per game in its last three contests.  Green Bay also allowed the Broncos and Panthers to rush for a combined 290 yards.  The Packers are dealing with a bevy of injuries on defense, too.  Cornerbacks Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, and Damarious Randall are all questionable to play this week, and all three play significant roles.

The Lions have had their bye week to regroup and get ready for the Packers, and they would love nothing more than to add to Green Bay's misery by pulling off the upset here.  They also want to put an end to a 24-game losing streak at Lambeau Field, which has been well documented.

Matthew Stafford has actually played pretty well at Lambeau, too, throwing 10 touchdowns against three interceptions in four career starts there.  The Lions have been close in recent meetings at Lambeau, though.  Their last five visits were decided by 10, 13, 7, 4 and 2 points.  So, four of the five resulted in losses by 10 points or less, which would be good enough to cover this 11-point spread.

The Lions are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games following a loss by 21 points or more, and 19-6 ATS in their last 25 road games off a loss by 14 or more.  Plays on road teams (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Detroit could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now due to recent results.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7

Since their 26-0 loss to Detroit in Week 3 with Jimmy Clausen at QB, the Chicago Bears have been in every game they've played.  Each of their last five games have been decided by 3 points or less, and they've beaten Oakland at home while also going on the road and knocking off Kansas City and Oakland.  Their only losses came at Detroit (34-37) in overtime at home against Minnesota (20-23) after they allowed 10 points in the final two minutes.

Jay Cutler has been back and healthy every since that loss to the Seahawks.  He is really playing well now, especially since Alshon Jeffery returned healthy.  Jeffery has finished with at least 100 receiving yards in each of his last three games.  He has only been able to play in four games all season, but he has still managed to catch 33 balls for 492 yards and two touchdowns in those four games.  He is questionable with groin injury this week, but all signs point to him playing after he practiced on a limited basis Friday.

The St. Louis Rams have no business laying this kind of weight against a solid Chicago team.  The Rams are 4-4 on the season and still feature and awful offense that is only averaging 19.1 points and 312.6 yards per game this season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by 11.1 yards per game this season.

The Bears, in spite of their 3-5 record, are actually outgaining teams by 5.2 yards per game.  That's impressive with both Cutler and Jeffery missing significant time, and now Matt Forte out.  John Fox has clearly had a huge influence on this team, and that's really been evident on defense.  He has turned this Chicago defense into a Top 10 (9th) unit in allowing just 341.9 yards per game this season.

Only two of the Rams' four wins this season came by more than 3 points, and those were against the 49ers and Browns, who are two of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Bears are certainly in a different class than those two teams statistically.  But the Bears just don't get a lot of love from the betting public, which is why we find them catching way too many points here. That's proven by the fact that they've gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite being an underdog in all five contests.

John Fox is 25-9 ATS in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached.  Fox is 10-2 ATS in road games off an upset win as a road underdog in all games he has coached, so he knows how to carry the momentum over with his teams.  Jeff Fisher is 16-35 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points in all games he has coached.  Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +5

Yes, the Baltimore Ravens are coming off their bye week, but at 2-6 they have nothing to play for at this point.  The Cincinnati Bengals are 8-0 within their division while the Steelers are 5-3.  They aren't going to come back and challenge either team within the division, and they are pretty much out of the wildcard race unless they were to go 8-0.  With the lack of talent they have, they know it's not going to happen.

The Ravens now have arguably the worst receiving corps in the NFL after losing star WR Steve Smith to a season-ending Achilles injury.  He suffered the injury in a 29-26 home win over the lowly Chargers last week.  The other win the Ravens got came back on October 1 by a final of 23-20 against a Steelers team that was without Ben Roethlisberger and starting Michael Vick for the first time on a short week on a Thursday.

So, both of Baltimore's wins have come by just 3 points.  In fact, all eight Ravens games this year were decided by 8 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  That's a big reason why I believe we are getting such great value here with the Jaguars +5.  I also like the fact that the Jaguars are playing their best football of the season coming in.

Jacksonville went to London and beat Buffalo 34-31 as 3-point underdogs.  It came back following its bye week and nearly upset the Jets as 7.5-point road dogs in a 23-28 loss.  The Jaguars thoroughly outplayed the Jets in that game and should have won.  They outgained them 436-290 for the game, or by 146 total yards, but they committed four turnovers to gift-wrap the game.  They held the a very good Jets rushing attack to only 29 yards on 28 carries.

Blake Bortles has made some real nice progress this season in throwing for 2,193 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  He should continue to find plenty of success against this awful Ravens defense that is giving up 26.7 points and 383.6 yards per game.  The Ravens rank 29th in the league against the pass, allowing 283.9 yards per game through the air.  They have yielded 290-plus passing yards in five of their last seven contests.

Yes, the Jaguars are also 2-6, but their outlook is much greater.  They only trail the Colts by two games for first place in the AFC South.  Plus, the Colts just lost QB Andrew Luck for a few games due to injury.  So they have a realistic chance of coming back and winning the division.  The Jaguars are only getting outgained by an average of 3.3 yards per game this season, so this team is better than their 2-6 record suggests.

Plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, in November games are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the alst 10 seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 84-40 (67.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Jacksonville.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee Titans +6

At 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season, the Carolina Panthers could not have gotten off to a better start.  But now we enter the second half of the season, and the Panthers have created expectations for themselves from the betting public that they simply cannot live up to going forward.  That starts this week as they are massive 6-point road favorites over the Tennessee Titans.

The Panthers are coming off four huge wins over the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers, and I cannot help but think they are gassed after those games.  They beat the top two Super Bowl contenders coming into the season, and now they have a feeling of satisfaction.  They also have a two-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South, so I expect them to take their foot off the gas this week.

The Titans are undervalued due to their 2-6 start this season.  Most teams at 2-6 wouldn't have a shot at the playoffs, but the Titans actually do.  They are only two games behind the Colts in the AFC South.  They picked up a season-saving win last week behind interim coach Mike Mularkey.  They won 34-28 at New Orleans as 6.5-point underdogs, and I look for them to build off that momentum this week.

The Titans have been very competitive at home even though they're 0-4.  Three of their four losses came by 3 points or less to Indianapolis (33-35), Buffalo (13-14) and Atlanta (7-10).  They did have a 10-38 loss to the Dolphins, but Marcus Mariota was injured early in that game and they committed four turnovers as he tried playing through the pain, but was ineffective.  Mariota sat out the next two games, which were losses to the Falcons and Texans.

But Mariota returned last week against the Saints to lead the Titans to a whopping 483 yards of total offense.  This offense is so much better with him at the helm, it's not even close.  He is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,610 yards (8.0/attempt) and 13 touchdowns against five interceptions.

One thing that's getting overlooked here is that the Titans have actually been better than the Panthers statistically on defense.  The Titans rank 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 329.0 yards per game.  The Panthers rank 14th in yielding 350.0 yards per game.  The Panthers are only outgaining teams by 8.9 yards per game this year, which isn't the sign of a team that should be 8-0.  To compare, the Titans are outgaining teams by 2.5 yards per game, which is a mark that signifies better than a 2-6 team.

Plays against favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Off that huge win over the Packers last week, it's only human nature for the Panthers to suffer a letdown here.  I expect an outright upset by Tennessee, but I'll take the points for some insurance.  Take the Titans Sunday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2.5

Everyone is on the Oklahoma bandwagon right now due to how dominant it has been in going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. That’s evident by the fact that this line opened at Baylor -5 and has already been bet down to Baylor -2.5. There is a ton of money coming in on the Sooners right now to say the least. They have taken care of lesser opponents in Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State in their last four games.

But in their only game against the best opponent they’ve faced in Tennessee, the Sooners needed to erase a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit and were fortunate to escape with a 31-24 (OT) victory. They also had that ugly 17-24 loss to Texas in which they were outgained by 90 yards. The Sooners have to face the three best teams in the Big 12 still in Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State over their final three games. Their true colors will show on the road this week as Bob Stoops just doesn't win big games any more.

Baylor isn’t getting much love right now because it lost Seth Russell and only beat Kansas State 31-24 last week. But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing a couple garbage touchdowns late. Garbage touchdowns aren’t going to work for Oklahoma with this 2.5-point spread. Plus, Baylor gets an extra two days to prepare after playing last Thursday.

True freshman Jarrett Stidham more than held his own against Kansas State in a tough road environment in his first start. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score. But this guy doesn’t get rattled and has been superb while getting a chance to play in all eight games this year due the fact that Baylor has been in so many blowouts, outscoring opponents by 32.4 PPG on average.

Stidham is completing 77 percent of his passes for 750 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. He’s not a downgrade from Russell at all, and nearly beat him out in fall camp.  Art Briles has been raving about Stidham for good reason as he was one of the top rated QB's in the country coming out of high school as Phil Steele had him at No. 5.

Baylor’s toughest games are all ahead as well, but this team is getting punished a lot more than Oklahoma for its schedule by the voters. The fact of the matter is that the Bears have been dominant even though they’ve played an easy schedule. They lead the nation with 57.4 points and 665.6 yards pre game. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up 25.0 points, 388.4 yards per game and 5.0 per play. And a lot of those points and yards have come in garbage time with the game already decided and the backups in, otherwise the numbers would be even better.

Waco is becoming one of the toughest places to play in the country. Baylor is 29-1 at home over the past five seasons, and 26-7 ATS in its last 33 home games overall. It has won its last two home meetings with Oklahoma by finals of 41-12 (2013) as 17-point favorites and 45-38 (2011) as 16.5-point underdogs. Don’t forget, the Bears went into Norman last year and won 48-14 as 5.5-point underdogs. They outgained the Sooners 544-319 for the game.

Baylor has outscored Oklahoma a combined 89-26 in their two meetings over the past two seasons.  And the scary part is that this is the best team that Baylor has ever had now.  This team remembers all of the bad years as the Big 12 punching bags and wants to return the favor with its continued dominance of Oklahoma in the recent history in this series.

Baylor is 9-1 ATS after leading in its last two games by 14-plus points at the half over the last two seasons. The Bears are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Oklahoma is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. The Bears are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games with a total set of 70 or more points.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon +10

Stanford is getting a lot of hype right now because it is a playoff contender and it has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Teams on long ATS winning streaks like this are almost always overvalued. That’s reflected in this line with the fact that Stanford is a 10-point favorite over Oregon. I believe there is value in backing the Ducks catching double-digits on the road in this huge rivalry game. They would love nothing more than to spoil the Cardinal’s playoff bid, and they still have an outside shot of winning the division if they win out, so they will be plenty motivated.

It’s clear to me that Oregon hasn’t packed it in at all. It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 26-20 at Washington and 61-55 at Arizona State outright as underdogs in both games before putting together its most complete performance of the season in a 44-28 home victory over California last week. This game was a bigger blowout than even that final score showed as the Ducks racked up a season-high 777 total yards while holding the Bears to 432, outgaining them by 345 yards.

It’s a shame that Vernon Adams wasn’t healthy earlier this year in losses to Michigan State, Utah and Washington State. He played through injury in the loss to Michigan State, was knocked out early in the Utah game, and did not play at all against Washington State. But ever since Adams returned healthy, this has been a completely different Ducks team. It’s why they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Adams has thrown for 1,468 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 145 yards and two scores. Offense hasn’t been the issue for the Ducks, who are scoring 42.2 points and averaging 543.6 yards per game. Adams alone can keep the Ducks in this game while matching Kevin Hogan score for score.  He has thrown for at least 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and now faces the weakness of the Stanford team, which is its secondary.

One thing that stands out to me that really shows how much value we are getting with the Ducks is the spreads in recent games in this series. The Ducks have been favored in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Stanford. They were only 2.5-point underdogs both times they were not favored, and they won both of those games outright. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last time that Stanford was favored by double-digits in this series.

Oregon is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following three straight conference games. The Ducks are 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. They have a knack for getting better as the season goes along, and that has been the case again in 2015. Oregon is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a sinning record. The Ducks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Oregon is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games. The Ducks are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Oregon Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers suffered a devastating loss to Alabama last week. Its going to be very tough for this team to come back emotionally and physically a week later. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat now that they have all but been eliminated from playoff contention as they no longer control their own destiny. That’s going to make it very tough for them to cover this 7.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Arkansas relishes the role of spoiler. It did the same thing last year with back-to-back shutouts of ranked Ole Miss and LSU teams as it was fighting to become bowl eligible. The Razorbacks are fighting for that again as they sit at 5-4 and could gain bowl eligibility this week with a win. They’d love nothing more then to kick LSU while it’s down this week.

Arkansas went into Ole Miss and came away with a 53-52 road win last week to spoil the Rebels’ bid to win the SEC West. The Rebels had controlled their own destiny, and if they won out, they would have been division champs. But Brandon Allen and company were clutch late once again, earning their second overtime victory in three weeks. They also beat Auburn in four overtimes by a final of 54-46 three weeks ago.

This is an Razorbacks offense that is hitting on all cycliners right now. They scored 54 points and amassed 457 total yards against Auburn, 63 points and 591 yards against Tennessee-Martin, and 53 points and 615 yards against Ole Miss. Those numbers have obviously led to a 3-0 run over their last three games as they are once again playing their best football in the second half of the season.

LSU was way overrated coming into that Alabama game last week because it had played a very favorable schedule up to that point. Five of its first seven games were at home, and it wasn’t impressive in its two road wins at Mississippi State (21-19) and Syracuse (34-24), either. I still don’t believe this team is as good as its getting credit for from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point favorites.

Arkansas shut out LSU 17-0 at home last year behind a dominant defensive effort. The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 total yards in the win. The Tigers only managed 36 rushing yards on 32 carries. Arkansas has been stopping the run very well again this season, allowing 129 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 180 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Keep in mind that the 17-0 shutout last year was on the heels of an overtime loss to Alabama for LSU.  So, the letdown spot following the Alabama game is real.  Also note that Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  In 2013, the Razorbacks were massive 28-point road underdogs in Baton Rouge.  They only lost that game 27-31 after LSU capped off a 99-yard drive TD drive with only 1:15 left on the clock.

The Razorbacks’ one weakness is their pass defense, but LSU QB Brandon Harris isn’t capable of exploiting it as he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC. LSU is only averaging 10 completions per game and 54.4 percent completions this season. Harris is a liability, and that will be a big reason that the Razorbacks hang around for four quarters and possibly pull the upset.

Arkansas is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 8 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. LSU is 10-22 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. The Tigers are 13-33 ATS in their last 46 November home games. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5

The Washington Wizards are in the midst of a 3-game losing streak to Atlanta, Boston and Oklahoma City with two of those games coming on the road.  Those are three of the better teams in the NBA.  It's safe to say the Wizards are going to be motivated for a victory when they host the Orlando Magic tonight.

This is a great spot for the Wizards, who have had three full days off since that Oklahoma City loss.  This will also be just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be by far the more tired team heading into this one.

Orlando beat Utah last night, so it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 8th game in 12 days for the Magic, which is just absolutely brutal.  I look for them to come out flat in this game and to not be able to match the intensity and energy of the Wizards.

Washington has simply owned Orlando, going 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Wizards have won each of their seven home meetings with Orlando all by 5 points or more.  They have won those seven meetings by an average of 13.3 points per game.  I fully expect them to win their 8th straight home meeting with the Magic, and for it to come by 6-plus points with ease.  Take the Wizards Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +29.5

First and foremost, this is a massive letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Clemson Tigers.  They finally ended their Florida State's run as division champs last week, locking up the Atlantic Division title in the process.  It's only human nature for the Tigers to come out flat this week off such an emotional win, and I believe they will.

Secondly, Clemson is already overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking.  I took advantage last week and backed Florida State catching double-digits, which was a ridiculous line as it was.  This was a 13-13 game in the 4th quarter before the Tigers scored the final 10 points to win 23-13, but the Seminoles were never in jeopardy of not covering. 

Now oddsmakers are asking Clemson to go on the road and win this game by more than four touchdowns to cover this 29.5-point spread.  Just how rare is a 4 TD road favorite in conference games?  FSU's Jimbo Fisher has only been a 4 TD road favorite twice, Oregon in the Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich era three times, and Bob Stoops in his 17 years at Oklahoma only four times.  Nick Saban has never been favored by four touchdowns on the road in SEC play, and Baylor hasn't laid four scores on the road in league play against anyone other than Kansas.

The difference here is that Syracuse is actually a decent team, especially at home.  The Orange are 3-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to ranked LSU and Pittsburgh teams.  They only lost 24-34 at as 23-point dogs to LSU and 20-23 as 8-point dogs to Pitt.  And this game?  This is the National Championship for the Orange, who would make their season with an upset bid here.  While that is probably unlikely, you can expect the Orange to be laying it all on the line for four quarters.  The same cannot be said for the Tigers, who think they just have to show up to win this one.

I think the injury to Syracuse starting QB Eric Dungey is being overblown here.  He suffered his third head injury of the season against Louisville last week and has been ruled out.  But that could be a blessing in disguise.  Backup QB Zach Mahoney has more than held his own.  He has thrown four touchdown passes against one interception while also providing a threat as a runner, averaging 5.7 per carry on nine attempts.

Mahoney finished off the 30-27 win over Central Michigan back on September 19.  Then, he started and played the entire game against LSU, which was arguably Syracuse's best performance of the season.  Mahoney actually threw for 154 yards and three touchdowns against that LSU defense.  He also threw a TD pass on the final possession of the game against Louisville last week after Dungey was knocked out.  This guy isn't a downgrade from Dungey one bit.

Syracuse is 17-5 ATS in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in its previous game, winning in this spot by 11.0 points per game on average.  Last year, Syracuse only lost 6-16 at Clemson as 17-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Clemson is 5-12-2 ATS in its last 19 road games vs a team with a losing record.  The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their five home games this year.  The Orange are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +14

This line actually opened at 8.5 in some places and has been bet all the way up to 14.  This move is clearly an overreaction from Louisville's 41-17 home win over Syracuse last week.  The betting public is quick to forget that Louisville's previous three games were far from impressive.

Indeed, it started with a 21-41 loss at Florida State as 6.5-point dogs in an absolute blowout in favor of the Seminoles.  Then, the Cardinals failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites over Boston College in a narrow 17-14 win.  The week prior to playing Syracuse, Louisville only won 20-19 at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Wake Forest and Boston College both are worse teams than this underrated Virginia squad.

Virginia is undervalued right now due to its 3-6 record this year.  But this team has been better than its record would indicate with a ton of narrow losses this season.  The Cavaliers only lost 27-34 at home to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs after a last-second TD by the Fighting Irish.  They also only lost on the road to a ranked Pitt team 19-26 as 8-point dogs, at ranked UNC 13-26 as 16-point dogs, and at Miami 21-27 as 6.5-points dogs.

In fact, the Cavaliers are 3-0-1 against the spread on the road this season.  They lost by 18 to UCLA, by 13 to UNC, by 7 to Pitt and by 6 to Miami.  I would ranked UCLA and UNC as better teams than Louisville, and Pitt and Miami as near equals to the Cardinals.  Even in that 13-point loss to UNC, the Cavaliers committed five turnovers and gave the game away.  Yet they still only lost by 13 with those five turnovers.

Virginia still realistically believes it can make a bowl game with a win Saturday.  That's entirely possible because the Cavaliers host both Duke and Virginia Tech to close out the season, which are two very beatable teams.  So the Cavaliers won't be lacking any motivation this week.  They won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs to Louisville last year.  I look for them to give the Cardinals a run for their money again in the rematch.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games with a total set between 42.5 and 49.  With the total set at 47.5 this week, oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair.  That certainly favored the underdog catching 14 points here in what should be a closely-contested battle throughout.  The Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. winning teams.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* College Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ohio State/Illinois OVER 55

Ohio State is coming off an ugly, low-scoring affair in a 28-14 win over Minnesota last week.  That low output from both teams has the oddsmakers setting this total lower than it should be.  This is one of my favorite college football totals of the season as Ohio State may score 55 points on its own.

Cardale Jones had to start at QB for Ohio State last week due to a 1-game suspension of J.T. Barrett.  Jones struggled again, which he has all season, so it was no surprise.  But Barrett is going to return this week, and it's well documented how much better this Ohio State offense has been with him at the helm.

Barrett has only started one game this season, which was a 49-7 win at Rutgers.  He completed 14 of 18 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing 13 times for 101 yards and two more scores.  I expect him to have a monster day Saturday as he is out to make amends to his team for his lack in judgment in getting suspended in the first place.

Illinois is going to do its part in helping aid this OVER.  The Fighting Illini are coming off their best offensive output of the season, scoring 48 points and racking up 595 yards of total offense in a win over Purdue last week.  They rushed for 382 yards as a team, and stud RB Josh Ferguson played his first game since October 3, carrying 12 times for 133 yards in the win.  Having Ferguson back healthy for this offense I believe is getting overlooked here.

Just look at the last three meetings between these teams, and you'll love the OVER as well.  Ohio State and Illinois have combined for 69, 95 and 74 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 79.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points more than today's posted total of 55.

Ohio State has done most of the heavy lifting in those three games over the past three seasons.  It scored 55 points and gained 545 yards last year, scored 60 points and gained 591 yards in 2013, and scored 52 points and gained 567 yards in 2012.  As you can see, it has nearly covered the 55-point total itself in these three games.  But Illinois has its best offense in quite some time this year with QB Wes Lunt throwing for 2,000 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions this year.

Ohio State is 9-1 to the OVER after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (at least 4.8 YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-9 (80.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +15

This is the first time since 2013 that Northwestern has been a double-digit Big Ten favorite.  They lost outright the last time they were laying this kind of weight in a conference game.  With wins over Nebraska and Penn State by a combined four points in their last two games, the betting public is back to overvaluing this the Wildcats this week laying more than two touchdowns to Purdue.

At the same time, Purdue comes in undervalued after getting crushed at home by Illinois last week 48-14.  The betting public is quick to forget that Purdue beat Nebraska 55-45 at home the previous week as 7.5-point underdogs.  David Blough is a good young quarterback, and he threw for 274 yards and four TDs in that win over the Huskers.

What I really like about this play is that Purdue has gone on the road and covered the spread against Michigan State and Wisconsin already this season, and both of those teams are better than Northwestern.  Purdue only lost 21-24 at Michigan State as 23-point underdogs and 7-24 at Wisconsin as identical 23-point dogs.

It's tough for teams with such poor offenses like Northwestern to put away teams by double-digits.  The Wildcats are only averaging 21.1 points and 338.9 yards per game this year.  Take out their 41-point effort against Eastern Illinois, and they are only putting up 18.6 points per game.  They have been held to an average of 281.4 yards per game and 4.2 per play in Big Ten action.

Yes, Northwestern won 38-14 at Purdue last year, but this is a much better Purdue team than last year's version.  Plus, the Boilermakers gave that game away by committing five turnovers.  In their last trip to Evanston, the Boilermakers won 20-17 outright as 8-point underdogs.  I wouldn't rule out the outright upset here, either.

Pat Fitzgerald is only 12-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Northwestern.  Fitzgerald is 3-14 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of the Wildcats.  The Boilermakers are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Northwestern is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games, which includes a 24-19 win over lowly Ball State as 17.5-point favorites this year.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

20* CBB 2015 Season Opening BEST BET on UNLV -6.5

The UNLV Rebels were much better than their 18-15 record and 8-10 mark in Mountain West play indicated last year. They lost three times to league champ San Diego State by a combined 11 points.  They covered 11 of their last 13 games to close out the season, and I look for that momentum to carry over into 2015.

Head coach Dave Rice is on the hot seat as his team didn't live up to expectations last year, but he's still 89-47 in his four seasons here.  He also delivered another Top 10 recruiting class nationally.  Freshman forward Derrick Jones chose UNLV over UConn, Kentucky and Kansas.  Fellow freshman Stephen Zimmerman is a five-star center from Las Vegas' Bishop Gorman High and a Top 10 recruit.

The Rebels do have two returning starters too in guard Patrick McGraw (9.6 ppg, 2.7 apg), F/C Goodluck Okonoboh (5.7 ppg, 4.5 rpb), and a couple of key reserves ready for bigger roles in sophomore guard Jordan Cornish and sophomore forward Dwayne Morgan.  Both players will see increased minutes due to the losses of Rashad Vaughn and Christian Wood, who left early for the NBA.

Cal Paly went just 13-16 last season and is only picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West this year.  They do return three starters, but none of them averaged more than 11.5 points per game last year.  This team is simply going to be overmatched talent-wise and will struggled to keep this game close.

UNLV does have a nice home-court advantage as it went 13-4 and outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game inside the Thomas & Mack Center.  Cal Poly went just 6-12 on the road last year where it scored only 58.3 points per game.  Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents.  Roll with UNLV Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -10

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country.  This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.

Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games.  Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville.  He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's.  His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.

Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Trvis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).

So, nearly the entire team returns from last year.  Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era.  Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit.  He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.  Newman may be on a minutes limit tonight because he's recovering from a toe injury, but it's not going to matter.

Eastern Washington comes into 2015-16 overvalued due to its 26-9 season and NCAA Tournament appearance last year.  But four starters are gone from that team, including Tyler Harvey (23.1 ppg), who left a year early for the NBA.  Also gone are three other starters who averaged 9.7, 9.7 and 7.7 points per game, respectively.  It's safe to say that the Eagles are rebuilding in 2015 with just one starter back.

Howland is 81-51 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points in all games he has coached with his teams winning by 17.9 points per game on average.  Bet Mississippi State Friday.

15* USC/Colorado ESPN 2 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59

USC features one of the best offenses in the country and will score at will on this Colorado defense.  The Trojans are averaging 37.4 points and 480.1 yards per game this season.  They'll be up against a Colorado defense that's giving up 36.2 points and 486.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play.

Colorado does have an underrated offense that is putting up 27.9 points and 425.0 yards per game this season.  The Buffaloes have put up 31 points on Arizona and 31 pints on UCLA this year, and they can find some success against a USC defense that is allowing 29.0 points per game in its last four contests.

But what really makes me like this OVER is the recent history between these teams.  USC and Colorado combined for 86 points in a 56-28 Trojans' victory last year, and 76 points in a 47-29 Trojans' win two years ago.  Cody Kessler threw seven touchdown passes against this Colorado defense last season.

Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last two seasons.  We're seeing an average of 74.0 points per game scored in these games.  Three of USC's four games have seen 66 or more combined points since offensive coordinator Clay Helton was promoted to head coach.  Four of Colorado's six games in Pac-12 play have seen 65 or more combined points.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -6.5

The Chicago Bulls have had three full days off in between games since their 111-88 road win at Philadelphia on Monday.  They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight because of all this time off, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

Chicago will also have extra incentive coming into this one after suffering its worst loss of the season in a 105-130 setback at Charlotte on November 3.  The Hornets just couldn't miss, hitting 14 of-23 (60.9%) from 3-point range in that game.  That's obviously not going to happen again here, especially with the Bulls extra motivated to put forth a much better defensive effort this time around.

The Hornets are overvalued here due to winning and covering in each of their last two games.  They beat Minnesota on the road 104-95 as the Timberwolves were without three starters in Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Kevin Garnett.  The Timberwolves haven't won at home yet this season, either.  Then they were lucky to beat the Knicks 95-93 at home last time out as Kristaps Porzingis' potential game-winning 3-pointer was ruled to have come after the buzzer.

Chicago is 28-11 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, including 18-6 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more during this same time frame.  The Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.  The Bulls are 15-5 straight up in their last 20 home meetings with the Hornets.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +1

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They should not be road favorites over the Boston Celtics, who I have pegged as one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.

The Celtics are just 3-4, but they have played a tough schedule with their losses coming against Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (twice).  But the Celctis' three wins have all come by 16 points or more, and they are actually outscoring teams by 3.1 points per game in spite of their losing record.  The Hawks are only outscoring teams by 4.3 points per game with their 8-2 record for comparison's sake.

As you can see, Atlanta has already played 10 games this season, while Boston has only played seven.  That makes the Celtics the fresher team right now as this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Atlanta will actually be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Celtics are 28-8 in their last 36 home meetings with the Hawks, including 6-2 in their last eight.  Boston is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Celtics are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 games following a home loss by 10 or more points.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York -2.5

The Jets are going to want revenge from getting embarrassed by the Bills in both meetings last season. The good news is that they now have the talent to get that revenge as they are a much more complete squad this year. They have gotten off to a 5-3 start this season and are a legitimate playoff contender due to their improved offense and lockdown defense.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of the best signings of the entire offseason from any team. He is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,790 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He was knocked out of the game early in their loss to the Raiders two weeks ago, but returned last week to throw for 274 yards and two touchdowns without an interception to lead the Jets to a 28-23 win over the Jaguars at home.

Fitzpatrick leads an underrated Jets offense that actually ranks 11th at 365.9 yards per game. The Jets are also 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 323.2 yards per game. They rank 6th in the league in yardage differential at +42.6 yards per game. The Bills are only 18th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. They average 350.5 on offense and give up 353.3 on defense.

I believe this line is lower than it should be for the simple fact that the Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games. But they were in bad spots in both games. They had to travel out to the West Coast to face Oakland a week after a heartbreaking loss to New England that had to be tough to recover from. Then they faced a Jacksonville team last week that was coming off its bye week, yet still won 28-23 as 7.5-point favorites.

At the same time, Buffalo is overvalued due to its 33-17 win over Miami last week. That game was closer than the final score as the Bills only outgained the Dolphins by 23 yards. The Bills were also in a good spot last week because they were coming off their bye week. I just can’t help but think this line is lower than it should be due to recent results against the spread for both teams.

But I’m not nearly as forgiving as the betting public is over one good performance from the Bills that followed poor outings. Remember, the Bills lost three of their previous four games before that win over Miami. They were blown out by both the Giants (10-24) and Bengals (21-34) at home, and they also lost to the Jaguars (31-34) in London. Their only win during that stretch was extremely fortunate in a 14-13 win at Tennessee. They trailed 10-0 until the end of the 3rd quarter and were outgained by 67 yards by the Titans.

New York has taken care of business at home this season, going 3-1 while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Its only home loss came back in Week 3 in a 17-24 setback to Philadelphia. But the Jets gave that game away by committing four turnovers. Those turnovers, plus an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles, were the difference. The Jets actually outgained the Eagles by 92 yards in that game, and they’ve outgained six of their eight opponents this year.

Buffalo is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 games off a home win over a division opponent. The Bills are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more over a division foe as well. The Jets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite. The Bills are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Jazz OVER 183.5

It's no surprise that the Jazz played in their highest-scoring game of the season last time out with their 114-118 loss at Cleveland.  Rudy Gobert got hurt in that game, and he's their defensive stopper who is averaging 3.4 blocks per game.  X-rays on Gobert's ankle were negative, but there's a good chance he doesn't play in this game, which would force the Jazz to play small ball.

I believe there's value with this low 183.5-point total because the oddsmakers have been forced to set it too low due to Miami going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games overall.  But all previous Miami totals this season have been set at 191 points or more, so this is by far the lowest Miami total of the season.  It's also the second-lowest Utah total this year.

The recent history in this series really makes me like the OVER.  The Heat and Jazz have combined for at least 183 points in each of their last 10 meetings, and 188 or more points in 9 of those.  They have averaged 201.9 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points more than tonight's posted total of 183.5.

Utah is 70-38 to the OVER in its last 108 road games after scoring 110 points or more.  Miami is 17-4 OVER in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-2 OVER in home games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three years.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Miami.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* VA Tech/GA Tech ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 53.5

While I don’t see a ton of value in the spread as both teams have been wildly inconsistent and unpredictable this season, I do believe there is value with the UNDER 53.5 points in this game. Neither team has lit it up offensively this season, but both feature better-than-average defenses. And their familiarity with one another is what makes the under such a great play.

Virginia Tech is giving up 24.3 points and 345 yards per game this season, while Georgia Tech is allowing 26.1 points and 365 yards per game. The Hokies are holding opposing offenses to 27 yards below their season averages, while the Yellow Jackets are holding foes to 39 yards below their season averages. Both teams are only average offensively with the Hokies putting up 373 yards per game and the Yellow Jackets 403 yards per game.

You have to consider that Virginia Tech’s defensive numbers would be even better and its offensive numbers even worse if not for a 3-OT thriller against Duke two games back. This was a 24-24 game at the end of regulation before the Blue Devils eventually won 45-43. Aside from that game, VA Tech held Pitt to 13 points, NC State to 13, and Boston College to 10 in three of its past five contests.

Georgia Tech has been improving defensively as the season has gone on. It held Florida State to just 16 points and 280 total yards two games ago, which is no small feat. This team is desperate to win its final three games to keep its bowl streak alive. I look for the Yellow Jackets to play another inspired effort defensively at home in this one and to shut down this lackluster VA Tech offense.

The head-to-head history in recent years tells the story. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings. They’ve combined for 51, 27, 37, 63, 49, 51, 37 and 30 points in the last eight meetings, respectively. That’s an average of 43.1 combined points per game, which is more than 10 points less than this posted total of 53.5.  That's why there's so much value with this UNDER tonight.

Virginia Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Georgia Tech is 21-8 UNDER in its last 29 Thursday games. The UNDER is 18-3 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hokies last five games following a bye week. Both teams have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, which certainly favors the defenses and will aid the UNDER here.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Spurs/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 202

I look for some offensive fireworks tonight between the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers.  These are two of the better offenses in the NBA this season, and I expect each to reach the 100-point mark as this one easily goes over the number.

Portland ranks 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 104.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Blazers play small ball this year with two of the most underrated guards in the NBA in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollumn.  They have scored at least 103 points in each of their last five games coming in.  BUt their defense has given up an average of 114.0 points per game in back-to-back losses to Detroit and Denver.

San Antonio comes in ranked 8th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 102.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Spurs are starting to get comfortable with LaMarcus Aldridge, averaging 110.0 points per game in back-to-back wins over Charlotte and Sacramento.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, all of which took place last season.  The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203, 248, 206 and 206 points in the four meetings.  That's an average of 215.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 13.8 more than tonight's posted total of 202.  I will note that one of those games was in overtime, though, but these teams still had no problem exceeding 202 points when they got together last year, and the Blazers aren't as good defensively this year while the Spurs are better offensively.

Portland is 14-3 to the OVER versus good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 43% or lower over the last three seasons.  San Antonio is 15-4 to the OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 23-9 to the OVER as an underdog over the last two years.  The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Portland.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies Western Conference No-Brainer on UNDER 200

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors, who are known for playing in low-scoring games when they get together.  There's no question that the Grizzlies are going to be out for revenge following their 119-69 loss to Golden State earlier this season, and I believe their intensity on the defensive end will lead to the UNDER.

The Grizzlies are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA this season.  They like to play slow-it-down ball and run their offense through Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, which leads to low-scoring games on the regular.  Memphis ranks 27th in pace at 96.2 possessions per game, and 28th in offensive efficiency at 94.2 points per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

These teams are very familiar with one another after playing in the Western Conference playoffs last year, and already playing once this season.  The UNDER is 8-2 in all meetings between these teams dating back to last year.  They have combined for less than 200 points in six of their last seven meetings.  They have averaged 187.7 combined points in their last seven meetings, which is 12.3 points less than tonight's posted total of 200, which is also where the value comes in here.

The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Warriors last 26 game s overall.  The UNDER is 47-20-1 in Warriors last 68 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes.  The UNDER is 44-16-1 in Grizzlies last 61 games overall.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Grizzlies last 27 games following an ATS win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +3

This is a Western Michigan team that I picked to win the MAC this season with all they had returning. They had 16 starters back and were a loss to NIU in the season finale away from playing in the title game last year. So far, they haven’t disappointed this season, going 5-0 within the conference and needing to keep winning to make sure that they aren’t left out this season.

Offensively, the Broncos have been explosive, averaging 38.0 points, 485.8 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.9 points, 425 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Zach Terrell is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 2,369 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.  The Broncos also average 208 rushing yards per game, and their balance offensively will be key in keeping Matt Johnson and the Bowling Green offense off the field.

Bowling Green also has an explosive offense, but the difference in this game is going to be defense. Western Michigan is much better on that side of the ball, giving up 389.2 yards per game. Bowling Green is allowing 434.2 yards per game this season for comparison’s sake. I simply look for the Broncos to get more stops in this one and for that to be the difference.

Both teams are coming off blowout wins last week. Western Michigan beat Ball State 54-7, while Bowling Green thumped Ohio 62-24. The difference is that the Broncos’ game was actually a blowout, while the Falcons’ game was not. WMU outgained Ball State 711-152 for the game, or by a ridiculous 559 total yards. Bowling Green only outgained Ohio 581-543, or by 38 total yards. That game against the Bobcats was much closer than the final score showed.  Keep in mind that Western Michigan beat Ohio 49-14 on the road, outgaining the Bobcats by 213 yards in the process.  Ohio is the lone common opponent between these teams.

It has been a long string of dominance for the Broncos, who have won five straight coming into this one dating back to their 41-39 home win over Central Michigan. They went on to beat Ohio 49-14 on the road while outgaining them by 213 yards, beat Miami Ohio 35-13 at home, beat Eastern Michigan 58-28 on the road, and beat Ball State 54-7 at home. The only losses the Broncos have suffered this year have come against three of the better teams in the country in Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State.

Western Michigan has owned Bowling Green in recent years, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Broncos topped the Falcons 26-14 on the road last year while outgaining them 361-274. Terrell threw two touchdown passes while Javion Franklin rushed for 149 yards and a score in the win. The Broncos held the Falcons to just 274 total yards and 14 first downs. Their better defense will be the difference in this game as well.

Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 10-1 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Western Michigan Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Pelicans UNDER 211.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 0-6 and in desperate need of a win.  They only way they are going to get one is if they start playing better defense.  These players know that, and I look for their best defensive effort of the season tonight at home against the Dallas Mavericks.

"We have to come out and compete to a level where the game's over and we're drained," All-Star Anthony Davis said. "We're not doing that right now. We've got to find a way to compete for the whole 48 (minutes)."

The Pelicans have been decimated by injuries this season, so their offense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders, either. Anthony Davis has been double-teamed and asked to do too much.  Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are all shooting less than 42 percent.  These four just aren't getting enough help and there is a lot of pressure on them to deliver.

Dallas is a team full of veterans who don't like to run the floor as much as they used to.  As a result, the Mavericks are averaging just 99.0 points per game on 42.2% shooting.  Deron Williams, Wesley Mathews and Chandler Parsons are all on minutes restrictions right now as they work their way back from injuries.  Dirk Nowitzki also plays fewer and fewer minutes every year.

One thing I really love about this UNDER is the fact that these teams just played three days ago, and then had two days off and will play again tonight.  The Mavs won that game 107-98 for 205 combined points only after a 35-28 fourth quarter.  These teams are now obviously very familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses in this home-and-home situation.  Dallas also won the previous meeting 102-93 for 195 combined points.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Mavs last five games overall.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Mavericks last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Pelicans last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Pelicans last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Toledo/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan +4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas have been underrated all season and they are again here as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets. They come in with an impressive 5-4 record when you consider how tough their schedule has been, which includes a tremendous 8-1 record against the spread. That right there just shows how undervalued this team has been all season.

I like the fact that the Chippewas have extra time to prepare for this game. They last played on October 31, while Toledo played last Tuesday on November 3. The Rockets suffered a devastating 27-32 loss to Northern Illinois that is likely going to keep them out of the MAC Title game. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and to not put their best foot forward this week.

Central Michigan’s four losses have come against four very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24) as 21-point dogs, Syracuse (27-30) as 8-point dogs, Michigan State (10-30) as 25.5-point dogs and Western Michigan (39-41) as 5-point dogs. Three of those four losses came on the road. They actually outgained Western Michigan by five yards, Michigan State by 16 yards, and Syracuse by 194 yards. They were only outgained by 77 yards by Oklahoma State, which is 9-0 and a playoff contender. Those results just show what the Chippewas are capable of.

Central Michigan is 3-0 in its last three home games with double-digit wins over Monmouth (31-10), Northern Illinois (29-19) and Buffalo (51-14). So, the Rockets and Chippewas have a common opponent in Northern Illinois. Both of them played the Huskies at home with the Chippewas winning by 10 and the Rockets losing by 5.

I just simply believe that Toledo is one of the most overrated teams in the country. That’s why I faded the Rockets last week as 7.5-point favorites over Northern Illinois. They were getting too much credit for their wins over Arkansas and Iowa State earlier this season. They shouldn’t have won either of those games as they were outgained by 197 yards by the Razorbacks and by 172 yards by the Cyclones. I believe they’re still getting too much credit for their 7-1 record and those two wins.

Central Michigan has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Cooper Rush, who is completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 2,626 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has put up those numbers against a much tougher schedule than Toledo has had to face this season. This defense is also underrated. The Chippewas are only giving up 21.7 points, 318 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.1 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) – off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1992. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Central Michigan is 44-20-2 ATS in its last 66 games following an ATS win.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high in this matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers.  I'll gladly back the UNDER as these teams don't come close to reaching 200 combined points tonight.

For starters, both teams are dealing with some injuries to their most important offensive players.  The Clippers are expected to be without Chris Paul, who is doubtful with a groin injury.  Zach Randolph is the Grizzlies' go-to guy offensively, but he's questionable with a calf injury.

This has been a very low-scoring series even when players have been healthy for both teams.  The Grizzlies and Clippers have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  That includes 180, 176 and 177 combined points in their last three.  They have averaged 185.2 combined points in those six meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.

Both teams are going to be playing with more intensity than normal in this game.  That's because the Grizzlies have lost two straight coming in, while the Clippers have also lost two straight.  That added intensity will show up on the defensive end more than anything.

The Grizzlies rank 27th in the NBA in pace at 96.2 possessions per game.  They are a slow-it-down team that cashes a lot of UNDER tickets because they are also 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 94.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers won't play with as much pace as they normally would with Paul.  Austin Rivers is one of the worst backup point guards in the NBA.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 43-16-1 in Grizzlies last 60 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Bears/Chargers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +4.5

Neither of these teams have gotten off to the start that they wanted. Both could easily be better than what they are with some better fortune in close games as the Bears are just 2-5 while the Chargers are 2-6. I believe there’s a good chance this game is close as well, which is why there’s some nice line value with getting the Bears as 4.5-point underdogs in this one.

The Bears are dealing with a couple injuries, mainly to Matt Forte, but otherwise are relatively healthy. But the Chargers are a complete mash unit right now. Almost half of their starters are hurt right now and either out or questionable. That includes WR Keenan Allen, T King Dunlap, CB Brandon Flowers, DE Corey Liuget, TE Ladarius Green, S Eric Weddle, LB Denzel Perryman, G Orlando Franklin and LB Manti Te’o. With so many injuries to key players, the Chargers just cannot be trusted to cover this 4-point spread.

The Chargers have just had a knack for playing in close games because their defense cannot stop anyone. Seven of their eight games have been decided by 8 points or less, with the lone exception being a 14-31 loss at Minnesota. Their only two wins have come against Detroit (33-28) and Cleveland (30-27) at home, and we know how bad those teams have been this season with the Lions at 1-7 and the Browns at 2-7.

The Chargers rank 27th in scoring defense at 28.4 points per game allowed and 31st in yards per play at 6.3 allowed. The Bears have actually been respectable defensively, ranking 9th in the league in total defense at 342.3 yards per game allowed. I bet there aren’t too many people out there that realize John Fox has turned this into a Top 10 defense, but that’s a fact.

I really like this matchup for the Bears, who rank 4th in the NFL against the pass (214.3 yards/game). The Chargers only throw the football and aren’t a threat to run as they rank 1st in the NFL in passing (336.9 yards/game) and 29th in rushing (86.4 yards/game). The Bears have actually held five opponents to less than 200 passing yards. They only gave up 189 to the Packers, 185 to the Cardinals, and 173 to the Raiders, which are three of the better passing offenses in the NFL.

The season-ending injury to Keenan Allen cannot be overstated. He was by far the biggest playmaker on this San Diego offense up to this point. Allen has 67 receptions for 725 yards and four touchdowns this year. Danny Woodhead is 2nd on the team in receiving with 39 receptions for 443 yards and two scores, and he’s a running back. So the loss of Allen is absolutely huge because he was Rivers’ comfort blanket on third down. There is no replacement for him on this roster.

Chicago’s last four games have all been decided by a field goal or less. I could easily see that streak extending to five here, but I actually like their chances to win now that Jay Cutler has his best weapon in Alshon Jeffery back. The offense has thrived in the three games with Jeffery. The Bears racked up 402 yards with Jeffery in the lineup in Week 1 against the Packers, 444 yards in Week 7 against the Vikings, and 305 yards in Week 8 against the Vikings. That output against Minnesota wasn’t great, but the Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Jeffery has 23 receptions for 341 yards and two touchdowns in two-plus games this year.

The Bears are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS against the Chargers in their last six meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 83-40 (67.5%) ATS since 1983. San Diego is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Chargers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. The Bears are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. AFC West opponents.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They opened the season 3-0 and were rolling, but then they hit a tough part of their schedule.  They had to play a stretch of four games in five nights, which didn't go well for them.

After beating the Nuggets 117-93 at home to start that stretch, the Thunder lost 105-110 at Houston the next night.  They also lost 98-103 at home to Toronto before falling 98-104 at Chicago.  They had their chances to win all three games, but instead they have lost three straight coming in.  Now they have had two days off after last playing on Thursday and will come back refreshed and ready to go tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are 3-3 and have played decently, but their three wins have come against the worst three teams they've played in the Blazers (twice) and Kings (without DeMarcus Cousins).  Their three losses have come to Dallas (95-111), the Clippers (96-102) and Detroit (92-100) against the three best teams they've played.

The Thunder won three of four meetings with the Suns last year, including a 112-88 win in their first home contest as similar 7.5-point favorites.  Oklahoma City is 142-103 ATS in tis last 245 games following a loss.  Look for an inspired effort from the Thunder that leads to a double-digit home victory.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* Broncos/Colts AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR Indianapolis +5.5

The Denver Broncos are overvalued here due to their 29-10 win over the Packers last week. They were out to prove their doubters wrong in that game, and they did a great job of it. But now they are in a massive letdown spot here against the Colts a week later.  They are also laying too many points because the public is putting too much stock into that win over the Packers. Had they not won that game, they would only be a 3-point favorite or less in this game, which is where the value comes in with this 5.5-point spread.

The Colts are undervalued right now because they have lost three straight and are just 1-5 with Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback. But their last three losses have all come by seven points or less, so they have had some poor fortune in close games for the first time in a long time. The Colts are extremely motivated for a victory to turn their season around, and it starts this week against the Broncos.

I like the fight I saw from the Colts last week against the unbeaten Panthers. Things weren’t going great for them for three quarters, but they found a way to come back with 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and overtime to take a 26-23 lead. They would eventually lose the game to the Panthers, who kicked two straight field goals thereafter to win 29-26. But this team can build from that loss.

I also like that head coach Chuck Pagano fired offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton. The Colts were supposed to be a more run-oriented offense this season, but Hamilton wasn’t following script. Look for new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski to get back to running the ball and taking pressure off of Andrew Luck. He was Cleveland’s head coach in 2013 and also coached Cam Newton in Carolina. He knows the importance of establishing a running game, especially when he has Frank Gore at his disposal.

Indianapolis has had Denver’s number with Andrew Luck. It is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings. It won 39-33 at home in 2013, lost 24-31 as 8-point road dogs in 2014, and then pulled the 24-13 road upset as 9.5-point dogs in the playoffs last year. The Broncos were also 6-0 when they went into Lucas Oil Stadium in 2013, and obviously they left with that 33-39 loss.

This is a classic buy low, sell high situation.  We're selling high on all of the great news coming out of Denver right now with their 7-0 start and their win over the Packers, coupled with their addition of Vernon Davis, who won't play a big role in this game after getting traded from the 49ers.  We're also buying low on the Colts, who are coming off three straight losses, and that has prompted rumblings about head coach Chuck Pagano's job status.

Plays against favorites (DENVER) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. As you can see, teams coming off upset wins like the one the Broncos had last week do not usually fare well the next week. This is simply because it’s hard to get up for the next game after such a big win. The Colts will be ready to play Sunday, and the Broncos will have a hard time matching their intensity level.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They should not be a home underdog to the New York Giants with the way they are playing right now.  They have won two of their last three games overall, including a 23-20 win at Atlanta last week.  They also beat Jacksonville 38-31 at home.  Their only loss was a 30-31 setback at Washington after they blew a 24-0 lead.  They actually outgained the Redskins by 124 yards in that game.

Tampa Bay put up a stinker in its opener against Tennessee, but it has been a much improved team ever since.  It has outgained four of its last six opponents.  It even outgained the unbeaten Carolina Panthers by 167 yards at home despite losing that game.  It went on the road and beat New Orleans 26-19 as well, and that was with a healthy Drew Brees.  So this team has shown me enough to know they can beat just about anyone and play with anyone.

The Giants, on the other hand, are extremely fortunate to be 4-4 right now.  It's embarrassing that head coach Tom Coughlin believes they should have won last week against New Orleans.  They  were outgained by 192 yards and their defense gave up 614 total yards, including 511 passing.  They were fortunate to beat the Cowboys 27-20 at home two weeks earlier as they were outgained by 171 yards in that game.  They were also outgained by 181 yards in their 7-27 loss at Philadelphia three weeks ago.

In fact, the Giants have been outgained in seven of their eight games this season.  They only exception was a 30-27 home win over San Francisco, and that victory looks even worse now because of how poor the 49ers are playing.  They needed a last-second touchdown to beat them.  The Giants rank 31st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 75.0 yards per game.  Only the 49ers have been worse.

The reason the Giants have been able to scrounge out a .500 record to this point is because they are plus-11 in turnover differential, which is the best mark in the league.  There is a ton of luck involved with turnovers, and that has help mask some of the inefficiencies of this team.  The Giants rank last in the NFL in total defense (427.5 yards/game) and last against the pass (315.4 yards/game).

The Giants' offense gets more credit than it deserves.  They average 352 yards per game and 5.7 per play against opposing defenses that allow 362 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  Their defense gives up 428 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 356 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  The Bucs don't get enough credit for their solid per play numbers.  Tampa Bay averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 per play on defense, which are both better than the Giants.

New York is just 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Buffalo.  The Giants are 1-10 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in their last game over the past three seasons.  They are coming back the next week to lose by an average of 16.3 points per game.  They are still probably gassed from that shootout in New Orleans, and it doesn't help that they could be without some key players in CB Prince Amukamara, TE Larry Donnell, LB Jon Beason and WR Reuben Randle.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be highly motivated for a win this week following two straight losses to the Chiefs and Bengals. They just couldn’t close the deal last week against Cincinnati despite leading almost the entire game and outgaining the Bengals by 60 yards. Ben Roethlisberger was clearly rusty in his first start back from injury, tossing three interceptions. But expect him to be back to his old self this week now that he's healthier and to come back with a much stronger performance.

Because Oakland has won two straight while Pittsburgh has lost two straight, this line is lower than it should be. The Raiders were in great spots in their last two games, catching their opponents in bad spots. They were off their bye in a 37-29 win at San Diego, while the Chargers were off a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Packers the previous week. Then last week, the Raiders caught the Jets in a hangover spot after their loss to the Patriots the previous week. But this is now a bad spot for the Raiders, who catch a pissed off Steelers team.

I’ve been very impressed with the improvement of the Steelers defense this season as they are only giving up 18.4 points per game. They have held seven of their eight opponents to 23 points or fewer, with the only exception behind the 28 points scored by the Patriots in the opener, who are scoring on everyone. The Raiders are improved offensively this year, but they are no juggernaut.

I know Le’Veon Bell is likely out for the season, but the Steelers have a capable running back in DeAngelo Williams, who is better than he gets credit for. Williams has taken advantage of his opportunities, rushing for 310 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He is also averaging 6.7 yards per reception out of the backfield and has pretty much matched Bell in terms of production when given a chance. Bell averages 4.9 yards per carry and 5.7 per reception for comparison's sake.

Roethlisberger and Williams should find plenty of holes in this Oakland defense. The Raiders are giving up 24.7 points and 385.0 yards per game. Oakland ranks 31st against the pass, giving up a whopping 302.1 passing yards per game. You can bet that Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and company are licking their chops at the opportunity to go up against this defense this week.

Oakland will be traveling out East for an early start time.  West Coast teams have not handled these situations well.  Pittsburgh has already beaten two teams from the West in San Francisco and Arizona pretty handily at home.  The Steelers won 43-18 over the 49ers and 25-13 over the Cardinals, and they were even playing without Roethlisberger in that game against Arizona.

Plays against any team (Oakland) off an upset win as a home underdog are 86-47 (64.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Oakland is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games following an upset win as a home underdog, coming back to lose by 18.8 points per game in this spot.  The Raiders aren't used to handling success and won't handle it well this week.

Pittsburgh is 53-22 ATS in its last 75 vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Oakland is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. AFC North opponents. Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS after losing two of its last three games over the past three seasons, coming back to win by 9.9 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -2.5

I’ve faded the Packers with success in each of their last two games. They only won 27-20 at home over the Chargers as 10.5-point favorites and lost 10-29 at Denver last week as 2.5-point favorites. I believed they were overvalued in both of those games, but now I’m reversing roles and believing they are undervalued as only 2.5-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers this week.

While I believe the Broncos are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with the league’s best defense, I also feel that the Panthers are one of the biggest frauds in the NFL. They may be the worst 7-0 team in the history of the league. There’s no way this team should be undefeated right now, but the fact of the matter is that they’ve had some good fortune in close games, and they clearly aren’t as good as their record.

The Panthers only rank 12th in the NFL in yardages differential, outgaining teams by just 6.5 yards per game. That’s not the kind of number you would expect from a 7-0 team. But they are 4-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They had chances to lose in all of their games this season but found a way to win them all, which is mostly luck with all of the breaks going their way late in games.

The Panthers have also benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL up to this point.  They haven't beaten a team with a winning record yet as all seven of their wins have come against teams with a .500 record or worse.  Now they will be up against the best team they have faced yet in the 6-1 Packers, and they will meet their match.

Green Bay is going to come back highly motivated this week. Aaron Rodgers hates to get embarrassed the way he did by Peyton Manning and the Broncos, and that’s going to be eating at him all week leading up to this game. Look for Mike McCarthy and company to make the proper adjustments to get this offense back to hitting on all cylinders this week.  Plus, Rodgers hasn't lost back-to-back games as a starter since 2010.  He always bounces back from losses.

Carolina doesn’t have the firepower offensively to keep up with Rodgers and company. It is only averaging 349.1 yards per game and 5.4 per play against opposing defenses that allow 361 yards per game and 5.7 per play. This is still a below-average, vanilla offense that relies too heavily on the running game to move the football.

The Panthers also aren’t as good defensively as they get credit for, and they certainly aren’t up to the level of the Broncos on this side of the ball. They have allowed 22 or more points in four of their last five games, which isn’t the sign of an elite defense. They have a lot of injuries they are dealing with on that side of the ball too with guys like Dwan Edwards, Charles Johnson and Frank Alexander out.  LB Shaq Thompson and DE Mario Addison are questionable, while C Ryan Kalil is also questionable on offense.

Last year, Green Bay throttled Carolina 38-17 at home as 6.5-point favorites. This was actually a 38-3 game with under 10 minutes to play before the Panthers put up 14 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Rodgers completed 19 of 22 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns against this Carolina defense.  He has thrown for an average of 287.0 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception in three career meetings with the Panthers.

I also like the fact that Carolina will be on short rest after playing an overtime game on Monday Night Football. That will work in the Packers’ favor here. They will not only be the more motivated team off that loss to the Broncos, they will also be the more rested and more prepared team here.

Mike McCarthy is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Green Bay. McCarthy is 21-10 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Packers, who are coming back to win by 11.9 points per game in this spot. Ron Rivera is 2-10 ATS in home games after playing a home game as the coach of Carolina. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the last two seasons, winning by 17.8 points per game in this spot.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington -1.5

The Washington Huskies are going to be contenders in the Pac-12 for years to come now that Chris Petersen is getting his players in place.  They may be just 4-4 this season, but from what I've seen from them, they can beat any team in the country.  They've even proven that at times this year.

The Huskies could be 7-1 right now because they've lost some heartbreakers to some very good teams in Boise State (13-16) on the road, California (24-30) at home and Oregon (20-26) at home.  Their only blowout loss came at Stanford 14-31 as 14.5-point underdogs, and even that wasn't that big of a blowout.  Plus, QB Jake Browning missed the Stanford game with a shoulder injury, but returned to throw a season-high 4 TD passes against Arizona last week.

Washington has gone on the road and beaten USC 17-12 as 17-point underdogs, which is a tremendous performance because USC is a lot better team than its record.  After some tough losses since that win, the Huskies came through with their most complete performance of the season in a 49-3 beat down of Arizona at home last week.  They racked up 468 yards of total offense while the defense forced four Arizona turnovers in the win.

Washington leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense, giving up just 20.4 points per game in conference play.  Arizona had been averaging 41.8 points before being held to just a field goal last week.  Now the Huskies will be up against one of the worst offenses they've played in Utah.

The Utes are so predictable offensively because they rely on Devontae Booker too much.  Booker averages 156.0 yards from scrimmage, accounting for 43.2 percent of the team's scrimmage yards.  His 232 touches leads the nation.  But because the Utes continue to get shaky QB play from Travis Wilson, I cannot take them seriously.

They are very fortune to be 7-1 this season.  The Utes have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season by USC, Cal, Utah State and Michigan.  They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 24.3 yards per game on the season, which isn't what you'd expect from a 7-1 team.  They struggled to put away Oregon State last week before getting a couple late scores to win 27-12 as 26-point home favorites.

The numbers really show that Washington is the better team in this one.  The Huskies average 5.9 yards per play on offense against opposing defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play.  The Huskies only give up 4.8 yards per play against opponents that average 6.1 per play.  Utah averages 5.6 yards per play on offense against defenses that allow 5.4 per play.  The Utes allow 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 5.8 per play.  Utah has never beaten Washington as Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Hawks OVER 204

The Washington Wizards are making a concentrated effort to take advantage of their youth and to get up and down the floor.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, averaging 105.2 possessions per game.  That has led to an average of 103.2 points per game, but it has also hampered their defense as they are giving up 106.8 points per contest.

Atlanta doesn't run as much, but it is very efficient on the offensive end, just as it was last season.  The Hawks rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 103.5 points per 100 possessions.  They had their best offensive night yet in a 121-115 win at New Orleans last night.

All four regular season meetings between the Hawks and Wizards saw at least 201 combined points last season, and 207 or more three times.  They averaged 206.3 combined points per game in those four regular season meetings.  But with the Wizards making an effort to push the ball more, I believe there is plenty of value with this over.

The OVER is 8-1 in Wizards last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings, including 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oregon State +17.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Oregon State Beavers.  They are just 2-6 on the season and 0-5 in Pac-12 play.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their numbers higher than they should be here of late. I took advantage by backing them as 26-point road underdogs against Utah last week, and I'll back them again as 17.5-point home dogs against UCLA this week.

What I see from this Oregon State outfit is an improving team as the season goes on.  The Beavers should have beaten Colorado in a 13-17 home loss.  They outgained the Buffaloes by 73 yards and held them to just 328 yards of total offense.  That's the same Colorado team that only lost 31-35 at home to UCLA as 23.5-point underdogs last week.  The Buffaloes even outgained the Bruins by a whopping 154 total yards and should have won that game.

Then last week against the No. 3 ranked team in the country in Utah, Oregon State put up a fight for four quarters on the road.  The Beavers eventually lost 12-27 as 26-point underdogs, but this was a 24-12 game with eight minutes to play.  They were only outgained 312-372 by the Utes for their second straight strong defensive performance.  Their defense will keep them in this game against UCLA, too.

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than UCLA.  The Bruins were already without star LB Myles Jack and leading tackler Isaako Savaiinaea, but then inside linebacker Kenny Young had to leave the Colorado game with an upper-body injury.  Josh Woods, a freshman who had been on track to redshirt, was then pressed into action for the first time before suffering hamstring injury.  The injuries just keep coming, especially to the LB corps.

"Man, the injuries have reached just comical proportions," said Deon Hollins, who returned against Colorado after missing one game because of a knee injury.  "I've never seen it," receiver Jordan Payton said. "I haven't even heard of something like this before. It's crazy, but that is a part of football. We play a game with a 100 percent injury rate, so it's going to happen."

Those injuries left UCLA able to only run two defenses for most of the game against Colorado.  The Buffaloes' offense officially ran a school-record 114 plays, one shy of the FBS single-game record.  So the Bruins were on the field for most of the game, and I don't believe they'll be fully recovered in time to face the Beavers this week after giving up 554 total yards to the Buffaloes.

Oregon State is a run-first team that is averaging 179 rushing yards per game this season.  That bodes well for the Beavers.  The Bruins have struggled to stop the run due to all of the injuries at linebacker.  They rank last in the Pac-12 and in the bottom 20 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (208), and that total has ballooned to 245.8 yards in conference play.  So the Beavers will be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack, which will help them easily stay within this 17.5-point spread.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings between UCLA and Oregon State have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON ST) - after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UCLA is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bruins are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee -2.5

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are in danger of missing a bowl game for a second consecutive season.  They went 6-6 last year and didn't get invited to a bowl, and despite returning 16 starters this year, they sit at just 3-5 and needed three more wins in their final four games to become bowl eligible.

It's safe to say that the Blue Raiders will be putting their best foot forward this week against Marshall as a result.  Their bye week couldn't have come at a better time as it has given them a chance to regroup and refocus.  I look for their best effort of the season here Saturday against a Marshall team that played last week and hasn't had a bye yet, so they are tired.

Middle Tennessee is way better than its 3-5 record would indicate.  It has lost to two Power 5 teams in Vanderbilt (13-17) and Illinois (25-27) by a combined 6 points.  It has already had to go on the road and play Alabama, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech as well.  You would be hard-pressed to find many other teams who have played as difficult a schedule as the Blue Raiders up to this point.

But Middle Tennessee has taken care of business at home, going 3-1 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 29.8 points per game.  Its offense has averaged 49.5 points and 527.2 yards per game at home, while its defense has only given up 19.7 points and 320.7 yards per game.  Two years ago, Middle Tennessee pulled the 51-49 upset of Marshall as 10-point underdogs.  That was a much better Marshall team than the 2015 version.

The Thundering Herd are nowhere near as good as their 8-1 record would indicate.  They have played such a soft schedule up to this point with their nine games coming against Purdue, Ohio, Norfolk State, Kent State, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, North Texas and Charlotte.  You would be hard-pressed to find an easier schedule in the country than that.  So the Thundering Herd aren't battle-tested, and this is going to be their stiffest test yet.

Marshall is only outgaining teams 393.7 to 349.6 on the season, which isn't the sign of an 8-1 team.  Its offense has taken a huge step back this year, averaging those 393.7 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 424 yards per game.  The defense is only giving up 349.6 yards per game, but that's not that impressive when you consider opposing offenses only average 359 yards per game.  Now the Thundering Herd recently lost their best player in RB Devon Johnson, who had rushed for 555 yards and 6.6 per carry with five touchdowns.  He may return this week, but it's not going to matter.

Marshall has been vulnerable on the road this season.  It lost 10-21 at Ohio while getting outgained by 122 yards.  That's the same Ohio team that has blowout losses to Western Michigan (14-49), Buffalo (17-41) and Bowling Green (24-62) in its last three games.  The Thundering Herd also needed overtime to beat Kent State 36-29 on the road, and they were outgained by 159 yards in that game and shouldn't have won.  Kent State is just 3-6 this season with blowout losses to Illinois (3-52), Toledo (7-38) and Bowling Green (0-48).

Marshall is 38-62 ATS in its last 100 road games.  The Thundering Herd are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The home team is 4-0 straight up in four all-time meetings between these programs having never lost.  Take Middle Tennessee Saturday.

15* TCU/Oklahoma State Big 12 Battle of Unbeatens on TCU -5

The TCU Horned Frogs are getting the shaft once again from the playoff committee with the release of the first rankings on November 3. Despite going 12-1 last year with their only loss to Baylor by 3 points on the road, and opening 8-0 this year, they are only No. 8 in the playoff rankings. Look for them to take out their frustration on the Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend to come away with a blowout victory.

Sure, the Horned Frogs have some close road wins this season over Minnesota, Texas Tech and Kansas State. But none of those three places are easy atmospheres. Plus, the Horned Frogs were banged up big-time defensively in all three of those games. But their defense is slowly getting healthy, and now it’s starting to play up to the level that it did last year.

In fact, TCU has only allowed 10 points in the last seven quarters to Iowa State and West Virginia. After falling behind 21-14 to Iowa State, it held the Cyclones scoreless for the final three quarters to pull away for a 45-21 road win. Last week, the Horned Frogs put together their most complete performance yet in a 40-10 home win over West Virginia. They outgained the Mountaineers 616-327 for the game.  The Mountaineers had 27 consecutive games of at least 350 total yards snapped in that loss.  They were averaging 486 yards per game coming in.

The Horned Frogs' last four opponents have only scored a combined 17 points after halftime, so Gary Patterson and company are making some serious adjustments at the break that have paid big dividends.  The Horned Frogs have used 16 first-time starters this year on defense, so their depth is really improving as the season goes alone.

Starting seniors Davion Pierson and Mike Tuaua have been back on the right side of the defensive line after both missed three games.  Pierson is the most experienced starter with 35 career starts, 10 more than senior safety Derrick Kindred.  ''Like a spark, he comes back with all this energy, his craziness. We just feed of him, great to have him back,'' defensive tackle Aaron Curry said of Pierson. ''He has this energy about him that everybody feeds off.''

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both teams have faced Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech and West Virginia this season. TCU is 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 20.8 points per game and outgaining them by 220.3 yards per game. Oklahoma State is also 4-0 against those four teams, but it is only outscoring them by 7.3 points per game, and outgaining them by 45.8 yards per game. TCU has been 13.5 PPG and 174 YPG better than Oklahoma State in those four games.  It’s clear by those numbers that the Horned Frogs are the superior team.

Oklahoma State will be a little gassed from the shootout it played at Texas Tech last week. It needed a 42-15 second half to beat the Red Raiders 70-53. The Cowboys won’t be able to match the energy of the Horned Frogs, who breezed to a 40-10 win at West Virginia last Thursday. That means they will have an extra two days of rest prior to this weekend’s game.

Last year, TCU crushed Oklahoma State 42-9 at home in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Horned Frogs outgained the Cowboys 676-258 for the game, or by 418 total yards.  Trevone Boykin threw for 410 yards, including 225 and two touchdowns to stud receiver Josh Doctson, who is having a monster year again in 2015.  While I don’t expect that kind of blowout again, I do believe it’s fair to assume that the Horned Frogs will win this game by a touchdown or more.

TCU is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games off a Thursday game. The Horned Frogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games. TCU is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points are 56-24 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* FSU/Clemson ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State +11

At 8-0 and ranked No. 3 in the country, the Clemson Tigers have earned the faith of the betting public. They have gone 5-2-1 ATS through those eight games, and if you bet on them early in the week, then you would be 7-1 as their lines just keep moving in favor of them throughout the week. That’s because the betting public has really gravitated toward this team with the way they are playing right now. As a result, I believe Clemson is simply laying too many points this week against Florida State.

Clemson has played a pretty soft schedule up to this point with its lone signature win coming at home against Notre Dame by a final of 24-22 as 3-point favorites in the slop. The Tigers were actually outgained by 141 yards by the Fighting Irish and were fortunate to win that game. I’m just not sold that this team is a national title contender at this point in the season due to the softness of the schedule.

Florida State would be 8-0 as well if not for a blocked field goal on the game’s final play that was returned for a touchdown at Georgia Tech. It was the first regular season loss for the Seminoles in three years and only their second loss overall in the past three seasons combined. But somehow, this team just doesn’t get much credit for what it has done, and what it is doing.

This will certainly be the first time in the past three years that the Seminoles have been double-digit dogs, and if you were ever going to back them, this would be the time.  Florida State has never been a double-digit dog under Jimbo Fisher.  In fact, the Seminoles have only been an underdog to Clemson twice in the last 35 years, and they won both of those games outright.

I love the resiliency the Seminoles showed last week in bouncing back from that loss to Georgia Tech with a 45-21 home win over Syracuse. They dominated that game, outgaining the Orange 575-303. They did so without two of their studs in Everett Golson and Dalvin Cook, who were both out with injury.

While both Golson and Cook are probable, I don’t think it would matter either way. Sean Maguire is a veteran quarterback who can handle the load, and he proved it last week with 348 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Syracuse. Jacques Patrick filled in nicely for Cook, rushing for 162 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. The Seminoles are a deep, talented team who can use the ‘next man up’ mentality because of their depth.

Last year, Maguire saved Florida State’s season against Clemson. He played the entire game in place of an injured Jameis Winston and led the Seminoles to a 23-17 (OT) victory. Maguire threw for 304 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the win. And that was against a much better Clemson defense than the one the Seminoles will be up against Saturday. The Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State last week and aren’t as good on that side of the ball as they are getting credit for with just three starters back from last year.

The Seminoles are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Tigers. In their only trip to Clemson during this stretch, they won 51-14 as 5-point favorites in 2013. They outgained the Tigers 565-326 for the game. They have only lost to Clemson by double-digits once in the last nine meetings in this series. I believe they can stay within double-digits of the Tigers this weekend as well, and I'm not ruling out the outright upset.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* College Football DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +21

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Florida Gators.  They are coming off a huge 27-3 win over their arch rivals in the Georgia Bulldogs.  Expect them to come out lacking the kind of focus it's going to take to put away this pesky Vanderbilt team by three touchdowns.

Vanderbilt was in a big letdown spot last week against Houston as it stepped out of conference following its first SEC win under second-year head coach Derek Mason.  The Commodores failed to show up and beat themselves by committing four turnovers and essentially handing Houston 21 points in a 34-0 loss.

Turnovers have been the Commodores' undoing as they've put up decent numbers overall, but are -11 in turnover differential.  The Gators, meanwhile, have benefited from one of the best turnover differentials (+13) in the country.  There is a lot of luck involved with turnovers, and the Gators wouldn't be 7-1 without them.

The Commodores have been competitive in every SEC game they've played.  Their biggest loss in SEC play came against Georgia by a final of 14-31.  But that game was much closer than the final would indicate as they were only outgained by 22 yards.  They also lost by 9 to South Carolina on the road, beat Missouri 10-3, and only lost 16-27 at Ole Miss as 27-point underdogs.

Vanderbilt has one of the best defenses in the country, which will keep it in this game against Florida.  The Commodores only give up 18.5 points per game, 323.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.3 points, 406 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  So they are holding opponents to 10.8 points, 83 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.

It's not like Florida has the kind of explosive offense that is going to produce consistent blowouts.  The Gators only average 380.9 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 384 yards per game.  They already have close home wins over East Carolina (31-24) and Tennessee (28-27).

Vanderbilt has only lost to Florida by more than 14 points once in the last four years, which was a 24-point loss last season in a game that was closer than the final score showed.  The last time the Commodores went to Gainesville, they won 34-17 as 12-point underdogs in 2013.

Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  The Commodores are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games after playing their last game on the road.  The Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Florida blowout win over Georgia last week coupled with Vanderbilt's blowout loss to Houston has created some additional line value here that is too good to pass up.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Penn State/Northwestern ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

Both Penn State and Northwestern have two losses apiece, but I have no doubt that the Nittany Lions are the better team in this one. They play in the tougher division in the Big Ten with their only losses coming to Ohio State and Temple, who are both ranked.  They have taken care of business against all lesser opponents they've faced, and I look at Northwestern as a lesser opponent.

The Wildcats have been overvalued ever since their season-opening win over Stanford.  If those teams played 10 times, the Wildcats would lose nine of them.  I believe the Wildcats' true colors showed in their 38-0 loss to Michigan where they were outgained by 212 yards, and their 10-40 home loss to Iowa where they were outgained by 294 yards.  Penn State is a very similar team to both Michigan and Iowa, but with a better quarterback.

Christian Hackenberg is starting to live up to that first-round draft status that everyone has been talking about.  Over his last six games, Hackenberg has thrown for 1,415 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  He's coming off his most efficient performance of the season, hitting 21 of 29 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns in a 39-0 blowout victory over Illinois.  The Nittany Lions just keep getting better as a team.

I trust Hackenberg to be able to make more plays than Northwestern freshman Clayton Thorson, who is completing just 52.7 percent of his passes for 1,119 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions.  Thorson is going to be under duress all game against a Nittany Lions defense that leads the nation with 36 sacks while ranking 4th against the pass at 157.9 yards per game allowed.

Northwestern is being overvalued due to its 30-28 win at Nebraska last time out.  But Nebraska just lost to Purdue and will not be making a bowl game this season.  Plus, that was a misleading final score.  At one point, the Huskers had a 10-1 edge in first downs over the Wildcats but somehow trailed 14-6.

Penn State is outgaining Big Ten opponents by 76 yards per game, while Northwestern is getting outgained by 102 yards per game in conference play, a difference of 178 yards per game that really shows how much better the Nittany Lions are than the Wildcats.

Northwestern is 0-8 straight up in its last eight games following a bye week, so I'm not concerned at all with the fact that Northwestern gets extra time off before this one.  For whatever reason, Pat Fitzgerald just hasn't managed the bye weeks very well at all in his time at Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions will be anxious to get back on the field and they'll be playing with a ton of confidence after their best performance of the season in that 39-point win over Illinois.

The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  Northwestern is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +18

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They won their first four games by a combined 100 points, so they have set expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to from the betting public and the oddsmakers.

I faded the Warriors with success in their last game Wednesday against the Los Angeles Clippers as they needed a 4th quarter comeback to win 112-108 at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They formed a rivalry with the Clippers in the offseason with all of their trash talk back and forth, and they are now in a prime letdown spot off that big win on National TV.

The Denver Nuggets have shown me enough this season to know that they can stay within this ridiculous 18-point spread.  They have actually played their two best games on the road this year, winning 105-85 at Houston as 10.5-point underdogs and 120-109 at Los Angeles (Lakers) as 3-point dogs.

The Nuggets have played the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  They are 3-3 straight up in their last six meetings.  More importantly, they have only lost one of the last 51 meetings by more than 15 points and by more than this 18-point margin.  That's a ridiculous 50-1 system backing Denver pertaining to this spread.  Roll with the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are highly motivated for a victory Friday night when they host the Atlanta Hawks.  They are one of four winless teams this season, but they have already played the defending champion Warriors twice.  Look for the Pelicans to come out with the attitude that they're not going to be denied of their first victory as I fully expect their strongest performance of the season here.

The Pelicans are shooting just 40.9 percent from the field, which isn't going to last.  Antony Davis, who shot 53.5 percent last year and averaged 24.4 points per game, is only shooting 37.9 percent this year.  Eric Gordon (36.7%), Jrue Holiday (37%) & Ryan Anderson (39.7%) are all shooting below 40 percent.  All four of these guys are good shooters, and it's not going to last.  They'll break out of the slump tonight.

Atlanta is overvalued right now due to winning five straight since a season-opening 94-106 home loss to Detroit.  The Hawks have won three times by six points or less during this streak, so they've been fortunate in close games.  They've also played a very easy schedule with the Knicks, Hornets (twice), Heat and Nets.  This will be their first matchup against a Western Conference team this season.

The Pelicans have owned the Hawks in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups.  They've won two games on the road, and in their lone home meeting last year, they won 115-100 as identical 3-point underdogs.

Atlanta is 2-12 ATS off two straight games where it had 10 or more steals over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in home games on Friday nights over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 12.9 points per game.  Look for the Pelicans to feed off of their home crowd tonight as they cheer them on to their first victory.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

20* Temple/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +13.5

The average bettor would look at this line and assume that Temple is obviously the right side as only 13-point favorites. You have a 7-1 Temple team that is unbeaten within the conference up against a 1-7 SMU team that has lost all four of its conference games. Seems obvious, right? Well, this is where situational handicapping comes into play, and this line is smaller than the general public thinks it should be for a reason.

This is a horrible spot for Temple. It is deflated following its 20-24 home loss to then-No. 9 Notre Dame last weekend. It held a 20-17 lead with just over two minutes remaining before giving up a touchdown to the Fighting Irish to lose a heartbreaker. ESPN’s College Gameday was in Philadelphia for this game, so it was hyped up all last week. These players aren’t going to be nearly as motivated to face SMU, and I look for them to come out very flat and for the Mustangs to put it on them early and keep it close for four quarters.

When you look at the Notre Dame game, there’s no way Temple should have even had a shot to win anyways. It was outgained 295-467 by the superior Fighting Irish, or by 172 total yards. Notre Dame had three trips inside the Temple 14-yard line, which resulted in just three points due to two turnovers and a missed field goal.  That 24-20 game being closer than it really was is actually providing some additional line value here, because the Owls covered when they provably shouldn't have.

More concerning for the Owls is the lumps they took physically. Rhule said his team may be without "a number of starters" against SMU.  Rhule didn't go into specifics about the injuries, but one starter banged up over the weekend was running back Jahad Thomas. Thomas, who leads the AAC with 113.0 rushing yards per game, said he hurt his ribs against Notre Dame.  "That game really took a toll," Rhule said. "It is a really beat up, beat up football team that we have right now. ... But I think we have a lot of good backups that are waiting their turns."

The Owls were also fortunate to beat East Carolina on the road the week before. They trailed 14-10 with just under four minutes to play before scoring 14 straight points. They were outgained by the Pirates by 56 yards in that game. They have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season, so they aren’t as good as their 7-1 record shows.  They have been outgained in three of their four road games by 56 yards by ECU, by 32 yards by lowly Charlotte, and by 261 yards by Cincinnati in a very fluky win.  They only outgained a bad UMass team by 20 yards on the road and beat them 25-23 as similar 13.5-point favorites.

Despite being 1-7, I have no doubt that SMU is a better team than that record indicates. A lot of that can be blamed on the schedule as the Mustangs have had to face three teams that are still unbeaten on the season in Baylor, TCU and Houston. They covered the spread in all three of those games, and only lost to TCU 37-56 on the road as 37-point underdogs in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter.

The last three weeks, the Mustangs are 0-3 with losses to Houston (28-49), USF (14-38) and Tulsa (31-40), but a closer look at the box scores shows that those games were closer than the finals would indicate. They were only outgained by 58 yards at Houston, they outgained South Florida by 13 yards, and they were only outgained by 13 yards against Tulsa.  Those were some misleading final scores to say the least.

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris has done a great job improving this SMU offense and making it competitive. The Mustangs are putting up 28.7 points and 414.2 yards per game this season. Quarterback Matt Davis can do it all as he’s throwing for 1,775 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 450 yards and seven scores.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) – good passing team (230-275 PY/G) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/G) after 8+ games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. SMU is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer yards per game.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +15

The Cleveland Cavaliers are just concerned with winning games right now, not by how much they win by.  That's because they are still missing three key players in Iman Shumpert, Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith due to injury.  Asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover the spread against the 76ers tonight is asking too much.

Cleveland needed a 26-17 fourth quarter to put away a bad New York Knicks team 96-86 on Wednesday night.  Four of its first five games have been decided by 10 points or less, including a 107-100 win at Philadelphia as 13-point favorites just four nights ago.  That close game against the 76ers was par for the course in this series.

Indeed, the 76ers have played the Cavaliers extremely tough in recent meetings.  All three meetings last year were decided by 13 points or less.  The Cavs have won three of the last four meetings, but they have come only by 7, 1 and 13 points.  The 76ers won 95-92 in one of them as well.

Philadelphia's 100-107 loss to Cleveland was a very good effort, and it came back with perhaps an even better performance in its last game.  The 76ers only lost 87-91 at Milwaukee as 8.5-point underdogs on Wednesday night.  Rookie T.J. McConnell took advantage of his first start at point guards, scoring seven points with 12 assists and nine rebounds.  Rookie Jahlil Okafor has lived up to his No. 2 pick status, averaging 20.3 points on 54.8 percent shooting.  Nerlens Noel has chipped in 13.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1996.   Philadelphia is 91-64 ATS in its last 155 games as an underdog of 10 points or more.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +1

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly-motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight to three very good teams in Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (by 2 on the road).  They are last in the league with just 19.0 points per game in the 1st quarter this year, so expect them to be focused from the start in this one.

The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot and are fortunate to be 3-1 this season.  Their three wins have all come by 5 points or less to Orlando, Milwaukee and San Antonio.  Bradley Beal hit a game-winning 3-pointer right before the buzzer to beat the Spurs on Wednesday, and off such a big win the Wizards will come out flat tonight against a Celtics team that wants it more.

The home team won all three meetings between these teams last year.  The Celtics won 101-93 as 3.5-point dogs in their only home meeting.  They also lost a heartbreaking 133-132 (OT) as 9-point underdogs on the road.  The Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, but their record hasn't reflected that yet, which is why they are undervalued here as home dogs.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Take the Celtics Friday.

15* Browns/Bengals NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland +11.5

The Cincinnati Bengals could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They have gone 7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread to really make the betting public a killing. The public continues to pour money in on them this week, forcing oddsmakers to over-adjust and set them as 11.5-point favorites. It’s by far the biggest spread of the season for the Bengals, who haven’t been more than 3.5-point favorites in any other game. The clear value in this game with with the Browns.

At the same time, the Browns couldn’t be much more undervalued right now due to going 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games. They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses at St. Louis (6-24) and at home against Arizona (20-34). But I’ve seen enough from this team to know that they can stay within double-digits of the Bengals, especially with the intensity level a little higher for them in this division rivalry game.

The Browns have beaten Tennessee 28-14 at home and Baltimore 33-30 on the road. Three of their losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 27-30 loss at San Diego, and a 23-26 (OT) home loss to the unbeaten Broncos. The Browns clearly aren’t as bad as their record would indicate as they’ve simply had poor fortune in close games, going 1-3 in contests decided by a TD or less. They were even ahead 20-10 at halftime against Arizona last week before losing Josh McCown to injury in the second half, which is when they spiraled downhill.

I know Johnny Manziel is expected to start this week, but I’m not that concerned about it. He has actually played pretty well when given a chance this year. Manziel is completing 56 percent of his passes for 393 yards with three touchdowns against one interception for a 93.2 QB rating. McCown had played well with a 95.2 rating, but Manziel can play up to his level. He proved that in the 28-14 win over Tennessee as he threw for 172 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

Cincinnati is nowhere near as good as its 7-0 record would indicate. It has only outgained one opponent by more than 60 yards this year, and that was all the way back in Week 1 against the Raiders. The Bengals have actually been outgained in three of their last four games against the Steelers, Bills, Seahawks and Chiefs. The only exception was when they outgained the Seahawks by 22 yards after erasing a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to come back and win 27-24 (OT).

The Bengals are 9-0-1 in their last 10 games that were decided by a touchdown or less. They have simply been fortunate in close games over the last two years to have the record that they’ve had. They are 4-0 in such games this season. This kind of luck in close games isn’t going to last for long. And I fully expect this one to be close, especially since Cleveland has won three of the last five meetings, including a 24-3 road win last year as 6.5-point dogs.

This is certainly a letdown spot for the Bengals.  They are coming off a huge 16-10 win at Pittsburgh in which the Steelers outgained them by 60 yards but gave the game away with three interceptions by Ben Roethlisberger.  The Bengals 'proved' they were for real with that win, and now have a comfortable 3.5-game lead in the division.  I look for them to take their foot off the gas this week, and for the hungry Browns to take advantage and keep this one close.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive losses against an opponent off one or more consecutive wins are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Cleveland is 8-1 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. The underdog is 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings, which just shows that anything can happen in this rivalry.  Roll with the Browns Thursday.

20* Thunder/Bulls TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City +1

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing each of their last two games by five points apiece to Houston and Toronto.  That's why I'm not concerned that they are playing a 4-in-5 situation here, especially this early in the season as teams don't get tired this early.

The Chicago Bulls are a completely different team now under Fred Hoiberg.  They are no longer concerned with being defensive stoppers, which was evident when they allowed 130 points to the Charlotte Hornets of all teams the other night.  They are just 1-4 ATS on the season and overvalued here as favorites against a superior team in the Thunder.

While the Thunder are a dangerous team when they're at full strength like they are right now, the Bulls are dealing with an injury to their best player in Derrick Rose.  The guy can't even see straight, so he's not himself.  Rose is only averaging 10.2 points per game on 33.9% shooting in nearly 31 minutes per game.  Joakim Noah is only playing 19 minutes per game and averaging 2.0 points because he's a misfit now in Hoiberg's system.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there's value in backing these supposed 'tired' teams this early in the year.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* Baylor/K-State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -16.5

The Baylor Bears just plug in quarterbacks and keep churning out massive offensive numbers, which is why I'm not concerned about the season-ending injury to Seth Russell.  The bye week came at a great time as freshman Jarrett Stidham has had nearly two weeks to get ready for Kansas State now.

Because the Bears have outscored teams by an average of 36.0 points per game this season, Stidham has seen action in all seven games.  He's gone 24 of 28 for 331 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Stidham came to Baylor in January 2014 as one of the nation's most highly touted recruits.

"Stidham's deal is he's been going all along anyway. In practice, our backups get as many reps as our starters," head coach Art Briles said. "From that standpoint, there was no difference there except he was working with a few different people over the last few practices. I’d be totally shocked if he’s not very composed, very competitive, very intelligent, and very on cue with everything he does Thursday for our football team".

The Bears are the nation's highest-scoring team at 61.1 points per game and they lead the country at 686.1 yards per game.  But what really makes them a national title contender is that they may have the best defense in the Big 12.  They are holding opponents to 25.1 points, 382.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play who average 30.2 points, 429 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  And that's really impressive when you consider a lot of those yards given up have come in garbage time with the game already decided.

While this is probably the best team in the history of Baylor, this is one of the worst Kansas State teams that Bill Snyder has ever had.  The Wildcats have opened 3-4 with their only wins coming against South Dakota, UTSA and Louisiana Tech (in overtime).  They were even outgained by 96 yards at home by Louisiana Tech.

The Wildcats have opened 0-4 in Big 12 play and will fall to 0-5 for the first time ever in conference action.  They did play TCU and Oklahoma State tough, but they were outgained by 158 yards by the Horned Frogs and by 139 yards by the Cowboys.  They were outgained by 458 yards in a 0-55 home loss to Oklahoma.  They were outgained by 131 yards in a 9-23 loss at Texas, which was just shut out 24-0 by Iowa State.

“You know a lot of us, myself included, have not really been here before,” Kansas State coach Bill Snyder told reporters of the losing streak. “So, it is a matter of having the answers of how to overcome the complexity and the difficulty of what has taken place.”

I just see no way this Kansas State offense can put up enough points to stay within 16.5 of Baylor.  The Wildcats were held to 110 total yards by Oklahoma and 242 yards by Texas.  QB Joe Hubener is 30-of-78 passing for 378 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions in Big 12 play.  He's not going to start magically lighting up this underrated Baylor defense.

Plays against a home team (KANSAS ST) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 225 or less total yards/game over their last two games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bears are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, including 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Baylor Thursday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Side & Total PARLAY on Los Angeles +8/UNDER 220.5

Reasons for Los Angeles:

Doc Rivers came out and said that you have to have some luck to win an NBA Championship.  The Golden State Warriors blew his comments way out of proportion and bashed the Clippers in the offseason, saying they couldn't handle their business.  Look for the Clippers players to come to Doc's defense and to take it personally tonight when they travel to face the Warriors.

There's no question that the Warriors are overvalued tonight due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  They are now laying too many points against what I believe to be their stiffest challenger in the Western Conference in the Clippers, who are also 4-0 on the season.

The Clippers have stayed within 8 points of the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.  Los Angeles is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Because these teams have formed a rivalry with their verbal jabs in the offseason, the defensive intensity in this game is going to be very high.  It's also going to be played on a National TV stage on ESPN, so look for both teams to really lay it all on the line defensively in this one.

Both teams are defending very well this season.  Los Angeles is giving up 99.2 points per game on 39.7% shooting, while Golden State is allowing 94.0 points per game on 38.0% shooting.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Clippers are 9th in defensive efficiency this year.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 216, 204 and 186 points, which is an average of 202.0 combined points per game, which is 18.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 220.5.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 216 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-1-2 in Warriors last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Warriors last 22 games overall.  The Clippers are 12-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 70% or better over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Side & Total PARLAY on Los Angeles +8/UNDER 220.5

Reasons for Los Angeles:

Doc Rivers came out and said that you have to have some luck to win an NBA Championship.  The Golden State Warriors blew his comments way out of proportion and bashed the Clippers in the offseason, saying they couldn't handle their business.  Look for the Clippers players to come to Doc's defense and to take it personally tonight when they travel to face the Warriors.

There's no question that the Warriors are overvalued tonight due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  They are now laying too many points against what I believe to be their stiffest challenger in the Western Conference in the Clippers, who are also 4-0 on the season.

The Clippers have stayed within 8 points of the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.  Los Angeles is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Because these teams have formed a rivalry with their verbal jabs in the offseason, the defensive intensity in this game is going to be very high.  It's also going to be played on a National TV stage on ESPN, so look for both teams to really lay it all on the line defensively in this one.

Both teams are defending very well this season.  Los Angeles is giving up 99.2 points per game on 39.7% shooting, while Golden State is allowing 94.0 points per game on 38.0% shooting.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Clippers are 9th in defensive efficiency this year.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 216, 204 and 186 points, which is an average of 202.0 combined points per game, which is 18.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 220.5.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 216 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-1-2 in Warriors last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Warriors last 22 games overall.  The Clippers are 12-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 70% or better over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Ohio/Bowling Green MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 68

Because Bowling Green is a team that has been putting up a lot of points against bad defenses this year, the oddsmakers have been forced to over-inflate this total tonight.  But the Falcons will be up against a much better defensive team than their used to in Ohio.

Indeed, Ohio is only giving up 23.0 points and 366.7 yards per game this season.  The Bobcats are a run-first team that likes to control the clock and keep opposing offenses off the field.  But they aren't great offensively as they are averaging 25.5 points and 386.1 yards per game.

Bowling Green is better defensively than it gets credit for.  It is giving up 28.5 points and 421 yards per game this season against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points and 394 yards per game.  It has really picked up its play defensively following a tough non-conference schedule.

The Falcons are only allowing 17.5 points and 363.2 yards per game in MAC play.  They have given up 10 combined points in their last two games.  They only allowed 10 points and 271 total yards to Akron and shut out Kent State while allowing just 166 total yards.

Ohio's offense has really bogged down in conference play.  It is scoring just 19.7 points and averaging 357.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against MAC opponents.  It was held to 14 points against Akron, 14 against Western Michigan and 17 against Buffalo in its three losses.

Looking at the recent history of this series, it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined outputs of 44, 49, 40 and 57 points.  That's an average of 47.5 combined points per game, which is 20.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 68.

Ohio is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams who score 34 or more points per game.  We're seeing 51.2 combined points per game in this spot.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NIU/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +8

Every year it seems like the talk is how Toledo is going to finally overtake Northern Illinois in the MAC West, and every year the Rockets find a way to lose to the Huskies. Neither team has been more than an 11.5-point favorite in any of the last eight meetings. But Northern Illinois is 5-0 in the last five meetings and simply has Toledo’s number.

In fact, Northern Illinois is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Toledo with its only loss coming by a final of 19-20 on the road in 2009.  The Huskies have won by 3, 18, 7, 3, 35 and 31 points in the other six meetings.   That makes for a perfect 7-0 system backing the Huskies dating back to 2008 pertaining to this +7.5-point spread.  Getting 7.5 points here with the Huskies is where the value lies. 

Despite having three more losses than Toledo this season, I would argue that Northern Illinois (5-3) is every bit as good. The three losses for the Huskies have all come on the road and to quality opponents, all by 10 points or less. They only lost 13-20 at defending national champion Ohio State while only allowing 298 total yards to the Buckeyes as 34-point underdogs. That effort alone showed what the Huskies are capable of this season.

Northern Illinois’ other two losses came at Boston College (14-17) and at Central Michigan (19-29). It’s no shame to lose to an ACC team like the Eagles by a field goal on the road. And when you look at the CMU game, the Huskies actually outgained the Chippewas 316-275 but gave the game away by committing four turnovers. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS since with blowout wins over Ball State (59-41), Miami Ohio (45-12) and Eastern Michigan (49-21).

Toledo is overvalued due to its 7-0 record and No. 20 national ranking. The Rockets should be 5-2 at best right now. They were outgained by 197 yards in their 16-12 win at Arkansas that was a complete fluke as the Razorbacks only managed 12 points despite gaining 515 total yards. The Rockets were also outgianed by 172 yards in a 30-23 (OT) home win over Iowa State. The Cyclones missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it for them and clearly outplayed the Rockets the entire game.

So, I actually come away more impressed with Northern Illinois’ two losses against Ohio State and Boston College than Toledo’s two wins against Arkansas and Iowa State. I really do think these are two evenly-matched teams, and if anything the Huskies are the better squad. They should have no problem staying within a touchdown of the Rockets this week and will be looking for another statement win in this series.

The numbers also show that these teams are pretty much equals. The Huskies gain 5.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.9 yards per play, while the Rockets gain 6.1 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.9 yards per play. The Huskies allow 4.7 yards per play against opponents that average 5.4 yards per play, so they have a very underrated defense. The Rockets give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 per play.

The Huskies are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. Northern Illinois is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Toledo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +4.5

The Charlotte Hornets are hungry for their first taste of victory tonight.  They haven't played poorly, but they've been up against a tough schedule in the early going during their 0-3 start.  They have also been unfortunate in a couple close games.

The Hornets lost 94-104 at Miami before falling 94-97 at Atlanta in its first two games.  It then lost 92-94 at home to Atlanta in its last contest.  Kemba Walker had a chance to force overtime in each of the last two losses late, but missed both shots.

The Hornets have only shot 39.1% and are allowing 44.7% shooting, so the fact that they've been close while shooting the ball that poorly shows a lot about what this team is capable of.  Now they take on a Chicago Bulls team that is vulnerable.

Derrick Rose can't even see, so he's not himself and has had to be more of a facilitator this season.  The Bulls have gone 3-1, but three of their four games were decided by 5 points or less.  Their only blowout win came against arguably the worst team in the NBA in the Brooklyn Nets.

Chicago is 0-9 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Hornets have actually won three of the last five meetings in this series.  Look for an inspired effort from them as they get their first win tonight, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +9.5

The Golden State Warriors are overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start that has produced a 3-0 ATS record as well. They're already a favorite of the betting public, so they are going to consistently have a few more points tacked onto their lines.  I believe they are laying too many points to the Grizzlies tonight.

While the Warriors are 3-0, they have faced a pretty easy schedule thus far.  They have already played the Pelicans twice, who are the most banged-up team in the NBA right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They also played the 0-3 Rockets, who have injuries of their own.

But now they face a motivated Memphis team that is healthy and one of the few teams in the West that matches up well with the Warriors.  Remember, the Grizzlies had a 2-1 series lead over the Warriors in the playoffs last year, but then lost three straight to fall in six games.

The Grizzlies can hang with the Warriors because they play great defense, especially at the all-important guard positions with Mike Conley and Courtney Lee, who match up as well with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson as any backcourt in the NBA.  The Grizzlies held the Warriors to just 97.8 points per game in the playoff series last year, which is absolutely terrific.

Memphis is 101-67 ATS in its last 168 vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or better.  The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Golden State.  Memphis is 144-106 ATS in its last 250 games following a win by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday.

25* Colts/Panthers MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis +7

This line is clearly an overreaction to the way these two teams have started the season. I’m not ready to crown the Carolina Panthers as a Super Bowl contender like this line indicates, and I’m not ready to write off the Indianapolis Colts as this line suggests. There’s no way the Panthers should be laying a touchdown to the Colts when I look at these as two pretty evenly matched teams in spite of their records.

The fact of the matter is that the Panthers are way overvalued right now due to their 6-0 start that has included a 5-1 record against the spread. Meanwhile, the Colts are undervalued right now due to their 3-4 start that has included a 2-5 record against the number. The betting public has made a killing on the Panthers while losing a fortune on the Colts, which has forced oddsmakers to set this this number higher than it should be.  They know the public is going to be quick to back the Panthers instead of the Colts, it's as simple as that.

The Panthers are very fortunate to be 6-0 right now. They have played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL as all six of their opponents currently own losing records in the Jaguars, Texans, Saints, Bucs, Seahawks and Eagles. They only rank 13th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 4.4 yards per game on the season. That’s not the type of number you would expect from a 6-0 team.

The Colts being 1-4 with Andrew Luck is being blown out of proportion. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets back to the way he played when the Colts won 11 games for three consecutive seasons in his first three years as a starter. They gave the Patriots all they could handle in a 27-34 loss just two weeks ago in his return from injury. He threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots and 333 yards and three scores against the Saints the past two weeks, so he’s clearly not broken.

Only once this season have the Panthers been favored by more than a field goal. They have been undervalued up to this point, but now they are clearly overvalued as 7-point favorites here. The only other time they were favored by more was against the Saints in Week 3, where they were 10-point favorites because Drew Brees was not playing due to injury. They failed to cover the spread in that game in a 27-22 home win. If they win this game against the Colts, it’s not going to be by more than a touchdown.

Off two straight losses and sitting at 3-4 on the season, the Colts are going to be the more motivated team in this one. They desperately need a win to get their season turned around after losing the past two weeks to the Patriots and Saints. I look for them to come out very hungry and for that hunger to lead them to the likely upset win here. But we’ll take the points for some added insurance.

Ron Rivera is 2-9 ATS in home games after playing a game at home as the coach of Carolina. Chuck Pagano is 6-0 ATS vs. poor punt coverage teams who allow 12 or more yards per return as the coach of Indianapolis. The Colts are 18-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss. Indianapolis is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 Monday night games.  Bet the Colts Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were booed off their home floor in a 71-99 loss to Utah on October 30 as they dropped to 0-2 on the season.  I look for them to come back with a very strong effort today off that embarrassment, especially since they've had two days to correct their mistakes.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are overvalued right now because they have opened the season by going a perfect 3-0 against the spread.  They are a public team anyways because they have Lebron James, and now they are laying way too many points on the road tonight as 13.5-point favorites here.

Philadelphia will get up for the defending Eastern Conference champions.  The 76ers played the Cavaliers extremely tough last year.  They went 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won 95-92 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone home meetings, lost by 13 as 17-point road dogs, and lost 87-86 as 17-point road dogs.  They know they can be competitive with this team tonight.

The 76ers are 90-64 ATS in their last 154 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Cavaliers are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 Monday games.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Philadelphia.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* Packers/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +3.5

Note: I'd recommend buying Denver to +3 if you have the option.  I put in the pick at +3.5 (-125) because that was my best option to choose from, the rest were +2.5 at either +105 or +110.  I personally bet the Broncos +3 (-120).

The Broncos are getting a lot of hate right now despite being 6-0. That’s because the offense hasn’t lived up to the lofty standards that Peyton Manning has set over the past couple seasons. But a bye week should do this offense wonders, and it’s just a testament to how good this defense really is that they are 6-0 right now. Defense is half of the game, and the Broncos’ stop unit is not getting enough credit here as they are 3-point home underdogs when I believe they should be favored.

Indeed, the Broncos are 2nd in the league in scoring defense (17.0 points/game) and 1st in total defense (281.3 yards/game) this season. They have the perfect recipe to stop the Packers because they have arguably the best pass rush in the NFL led by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. They also have elite defensive backs who can shut down opposing receivers and allow the pass rush to get there. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 192.2 yards per game.

Manning and the offense did show signs of taking a step in the right direction last time out against the Browns. They racked up a season-high 442 total yards with a balanced attack that featured 152 yards on the ground and 290 through the air. Manning isn’t going to continue throwing this many interceptions for much longer, and the bye week will help him and Gary Kubiak get on the same page with this offense to work out the kinks.

The Packers are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season. The betting public loves backing them, and the Packers have delivered week in and week out. But as a result, they are overvalued right now, and that started to show in their last game against the Chargers. They were asked to lay 11 points to San Diego, and they only won 27-20 and should have lost that game. They gave up 548 total yards to San Diego and were outgained by 178 yards for the game.

In fact, the Packers have been outgained in three of their six games this season. They are 15th in total defense (355.0 yards/game) and 10th in total offense (364.2 yards/game).  They only rank 12th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by a mere 9.2 yards per game. Compare that to the Broncos, who have outgained five of their first six opponents, and you could make the argument that Denver is the better team. The Broncos rank 7th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.5 yards per game.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Broncos are 2-0 at home this season to improve to 24-2 at home in the regular season with Peyton Manning as their quarterback. That makes their 6-0 record all the more impressive considering they have played four road games compared to just two home games.  The Packers have played four home games to just two road games, and they didn't play all that well at San Francisco or Chicago.  Now they faced their toughest road test yet.

Denver is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Broncos are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game. Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* Royals/Mets World Series Game 5 No-Brainer on Kansas City +129

The Kansas City Royals have a change to make up for their loss in the World Series to the Giants in 7 games last year.  They don't want to wait any longer to get it done as they have a chance to close out the Mets in Game 5 Sunday night.

They have this chance because they scored three runs in the eighth inning last night when they were down 3-2 to win 5-3.  That's going to be a very tough loss for the Mets to recover from mentally, and I look for the Royals to carry their momentum into a Game 5 victory tonight.

I also like the fact that the Royals will be rallying around Edinson Volquez, who learned of his father's death after pitching Game 1.  He is going to pitch an inspired game to continue his tremendous season.  He is 14-11 with a 3.71 ERA this season to become a huge part of this rotation.

Volquez is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts against the Mets, giving up just five earned runs in 17 innings. Volquez is 19-4 (+15.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half in his career.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +2.5

These teams just played two nights ago on October 30 with the Hawks coming away with a 97-94 home victory.  This is one of my favorite situations as the Hornets get a shot at revenge just two nights later, this time at home, as an underdogs to boot.

The Hornets are highly motivated for their first win of the season.  They have played two tough road games at Miami and at Atlanta, and now they get to play at home for the first time this year Sunday.  Look for them to take care of business on their home floor.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently.  Indeed, the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hornets won 115-100 and 122-119 over the Hawks in their two meetings at home last year, and that was an Atlanta team that won 60 games and was better than the 2015-16 version is.  The Hornets are a better team this year than last with the players they added in the offseason.

Plays against any team (ATLANTA) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-7 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Hornets Sunday.

20* AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers Money Line +113

The Steelers had a nice run without Ben Roethlisberger, managing to go 2-2 despite arguably betting outplayed in all four games. They would have taken that record knowing that their franchise quarterback was going to miss four weeks. It really brought this team together and allowed other guys to step up, which is only going to help them going forward.

But now Big Big is expected to return to action this week just in time for a huge division game against the Bengals, and the Steelers are going to be a very dangerous team the rest of the way as a result. Roethlisberger has completed 75.3 percent of his passes for 912 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 10.2 yards per attempt in two-plus games, so his absence was a huge one. Look for him to pick up right where he left off now that he’s 100 percent healthy and didn’t come back too early.  Remember, Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing last year.

Cincinnati is certainly putting on a show in the early going, but with a 6-0 record comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Bengals are going to find hard living up to the rest of the way. They’ve also gone 5-0-1 against the spread, so the public has been winning some serious money on them. The proof that they are overvalued comes with the fact that they actually opened as 1.5-point road favorites in this game. Sure, coming off a bye week is a concern, but the last thing this team needed was a bye week to stop their momentum with the way they were playing.

The Bengals haven’t been as good as their record would indicate, however. They did dominate the Raiders in the opener and outgained them by 150 yards in their 33-13 road win. But they haven’t outgained a team by more than 60 yards since, and they have won all three of their games that were decided by five points or less to be very fortunate in close games. They have actually been outgained in two of their last three games. They were outgained by 16 yards by the Chiefs and by 13 yards by the Bills. They needed to erase a 17-point fourth quarter to beat the Seahawks, too. Sooner rather than later, their good fortune will run out.

I believe that to be this week as the Steelers have owned the Bengals in the last three meetings. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while outgaining the Bengals in all three contests. They won 30-20 at home in 2013, 42-21 on the road in 2014, and 27-17 at home last year as well. As you can see, all three wins have come by double-digits, so they really haven’t even been close. They have averaged 33.0 points per game in the three wins.  With Big Ben back, look for the Steelers’ dominance in this series to continue, especially since they need this game more as they are sitting at 4-3 while the Bengals are 6-0.

Pittsburgh’s defense has shown vast improvement this season in allowing just 18.7 points per game. It hasn’t allowed more than 28 points in any game, and it has held six of its first seven opponents to 23 points or fewer.  The Patriots were the team that scored 28, and they have been putting up big numbers on everyone.

Cincinnati’s defense isn’t as good as it gets credit for. The Bengals are giving up 370.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season against opponents who average 364 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  Cincinnati is giving up 4.9 yards per carry this season and Le'Veon Bell is in for a big game.  Jamaal Charles ran for 6.6 yards per carry on this Bengals defense, which hasn't faced many great running backs outside of Charles.

The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in home games after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons. Pittsburgh is 56-34 ATS in its last 90 home games following one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Steelers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. They have really risen to the occasion in recent years against these good teams.

Pittsburgh is 34-13 straight up in its last 47 meetings with Cincinnati.  Roethlisberger is 9-2 against the spread as a starter as a home underdog in his career, including 3-0 against the spread in his career as a home dog against division opponents.  The wrong team is favored here folks.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line.

20* NFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Saints -3

The Saints have really impressed me with the way they’ve been able to turn around their season following an 0-3 start. They have won three of four games since, and the last two have come against two quality teams in the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts.

The difference has been that the Saints are now taking care of the football. They have committed just one turnover in their three wins, and they have forced three turnovers in each of their wins over the Falcons and Colts. They beat the Falcons 31-21 at home two weeks ago. Last week, they beat the Colts 27-21 on the road and really dominated that game from start to finish. They outgained the Colts by 73 yards in the win thanks to a 449-yard output from their offense.

This is a New Orleans offense that is once again among the league’s elite. The Saints rank 6th in the NFL in total offense in averaging 395.9 yards per game this season. They proved that they have balance last week in rushing for 183 yards as a team. Drew Brees is still playing at a Pro Bowl level and looks recovered from a shoulder injury suffered earlier this season.

The Giants are 4-3, but the numbers indicate that this team is very fortunate to hold that record. In fact, they have been outgained in six of their seven games this season. They rank 31st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 58.3 yards per game. Only the San Francisco 49ers have been worse. Those aren’t the type of numbers you would expect from a team with a winning record at this point in the season.

Brees and company should have their way with a Giants defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 401.7 yards per game. The Giants were actually outgained by 171 yards by the Cowboys last week and should have lost. They gave up 460 total yards to Dallas, which is really poor when you consider that the Cowboys were without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. Indeed, the home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Saints are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Giants with the last three wins coming by 25, 21 and 42 points, respectively. The Giants are just 1-2 on the road this season while the Saints are 2-1 at home. I think that home-field advantage should be worth more than just three points here.

New Orleans is 11-3 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. The Saints are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. New York is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games after being outgained by 150-plus total yards in its previous game. The Giants are 20-46-2 ATS in their last 68 games in November.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +1.5

The Chicago Bears should not be home underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings.  They have had two weeks to prepare for this game and are hungry for a win after a 2-4 start.  They were playing much better coming into their bye, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with thei only loss coming 34-37 (OT) on the road at Detroit.  I look for them to come out of their bye playing even better.

The Bears have had a chance to get some rest and to get healthy.  Their top two receivers coming into the season were Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal, who have both missed some time.  But both are back and healthy now.  Jeffery had been out since the opener with a pulled hamstring but returned for the Detroit game last time out and caught eight passes for 147 yards and a touchdown.  With him in the lineup, this offense is much more dynamic.

Chicago totaled a season-high 444 yards against the Lions with Cutler throwing for 353.  The only other time the Bears topped 400 yards was when Jeffery was active in Week 1 against the Packers.  The Bears played the Packers extremely tough at home in that game, only losing 23-31 despite outgaining Green Bay 402-332 for the game.  That effort right there showed what they are capable of at full strength as they should have won that game.

Minnesota is extremely fortunate to be 4-2 right now.  It actually ranks just 19th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 13.3 yards per game.  The Bears are 16th in yardage differential, getting outgained by only 7.1 yards per game.  And that's with Cutler missing a couple starts due to injury and Jeffery missing four games.  This is clearly one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now.

Minnesota has also benefited from an extremely easy schedule.  It has played just one team with a winning record, and that was the Denver Broncos, who they lost to 20-23 on the road.  The other five games have come against the Lions (twice), 49ers, Chargers and Chiefs, who are a combined 7-21.  That makes the fact that they are getting outgained by 13.3 yards per game on the season even worse.  The Bears have faced a much more difficult schedule having already played the likes of the Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks & Raiders.

The Bears are 13-1 in their last 14 home meetings with the Vikings, including 7-0 in the last seven meetings at Soldier Field.  Obviously, home-field advantage has been huge in this series, and I expect that to continue this year.  The Bears averaged 32.9 points during their seven straight home wins over Minnesota.  The Home team is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 meetings.  Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Chicago.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +8

There's no question in my mind that this line is inflated.  The 49ers are coming off an ugly 3-20 home loss to the Seahawks last week, while the Rams are coming off a 24-6 blowout home win over the Browns.  The Rams are not 8 points better than the 49ers at home, but public perception has forced oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be based off last week's results.

The Seahawks simply have the 49ers number, so it wasn't surprising to see them lose the way they did.  But that game was played last Thursday, meaning the 49ers have some extra rest and prep time to get ready for the Rams this week.  I look for them to come back strong in this one.  Also, consider that the Rams were coming off their bye last week, while the Browns were coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to Denver.  That was an awful spot for the Browns and a great one for the Rams.

When you look at how the 49ers played in their previous two games prior to the Seattle game, this team was starting to turn the corner.  They only lost 27-30 on the road to the New York Giants in Week 5 after the Giants scored a game-winning touchdown late.  They racked up 380 total yards on the Giants in that game.  Then they came bac in Week 6 and beat the Ravens 25-20 at home, gaining 391 total yards in the process.  This offense isn't broken, it just ran into a buzz saw in Seattle last week.

St. Louis hasn't been much better on that side of the ball this season.  In fact, the Rams are scoring just 18.0 points per game while ranking 31st in the NFL in total offense.  These teams are actually very evenly-matched offensively as they are both well below average units.  That is why it's going to be hard for the Rams to cover this 8-point spread, especially in a division rivalry game.  The Rams also rank 29th in yardage differential this year, getting outgained by 52.5 yards per game.

While the Seahawks have owned the 49ers, the 49ers have actually owned the Rams.  They are 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings in this series.  Their three losses during this span came by 3, 3, and 8 points.  In fact, the 49ers haven't lost by more than 8 points to the Rams in any of the last 20 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 20-0 system backing San Francisco heading into this game.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5

This is a rematch from the Kings' 104-111 home loss to the Clippers in the season opener.  Getting a chance to face the Clippers again this quickly is a positive for the Kings, who will be out for revenge tonight.  Los Angeles closed that game on an 11-4 run to pull out the victory, and Sacramento would like to return the favor.

I was impressed with how tough the Kings played the Clippers in that game despite shooting just 43.6% from the field and allowing 52.5% shooting as they still had a chance to win in the end.  Then they came back and dominated the Lakers 132-114 last night and shot 51.5%.  George Karl has this team playing well in the early going.

Sacramento is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 road games off a home win over a division rival.  The Clippers are 28-49 ATS in their last 77 after two consecutive covers as a favorite, only winning by 0.8 points per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games after committing 8 or fewer turnovers in its previous game.  The Clippers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +13

The Michigan Wolverines are being treated like they are one of the best teams in the country with this 13-point spread. They certainly are improved under Jim Harbaugh, but asking them to go on the road and to put away a pesky Minnesota team by two touchdowns to beat us is asking too much. I believe there is some serious line value with the Golden Gophers at home this week.

Both teams are coming off their byes, so there’s no real advantage there. But I will say that Michigan’s bye couldn’t have come at a worse time. Nobody wants to practice for two straight weeks after losing the way that the Wolverines did to Michigan State. That blocked punt return TD was about the worst way you could lose a game. I still believe these players are feeling a hangover effect from that loss and won’t bring their best effort against Minnesota this week after essentially having their Big Ten and national title hopes crushed.

Minnesota is consistently undervalued year in and year out under Jerry Kill. The guy just keeps finding ways to keep the Golden Gophers competitive, and that has been the case again this year. They are off to a 4-3 start and still very much alive in the Big Ten West race. Their first four games were all decided by 6 points or less, which included a 17-23 loss to national title contender TCU.

But Kill has decided to step down this week due to health reasons, and the players will be trying to win this game to honor him, which just adds to their motivation.  The interim coach will be Tracy Claeys.  He filled that role for seven games in 2013 and did a tremendous job while Kill took a break for the same health reasons.  Indeed, Minnesota was a dog in six of those seven games with Claeys as the coach, and he guided them to a 6-1 ATS record with outright upsets of Northwestern, Nebraska and Indiana.

Minnesota has actually gone 5-0 ATS in its last five as a home underdog with upsets of Nebraska (+10) and Iowa (51-14), along with near upsets of eventual national champ Ohio State (lost by 7) and No. 2 ranked TCU (lost by 6) in recent seasons.

The Golden Gophers did lose 27-0 on the road to Northwestern earlier this year, but they only allowed 312 total yards to the Wildcats in that game. They came back with a 41-13 win at Purdue the following week before losing to Nebraska 25-48 at home last time out. But that was a 38-25 game late in the fourth quarter before the Huskers added 10 points late, including an interception return for a TD. The Gophers were outgained by less than 100 yards by the Huskers.

Both of these teams are really built to play in close games, which is why the +13 here has a lot of value. Both teams rely on their defenses, which is why this total has only been set at 39 points. Oddsmakers are expecting a very low-scoring game, which favors the underdog. It would take roughly a 27-13 score for this line to match up with the total, and I don’t see the Wolverines getting to 27 points.

Minnesota has only allowed more than 27 points once this season. It is giving up just 23.1 points, 328.7 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  It is holding opponents to 5.0 points, 77.3 yards and 0.9 per play below their season averages.  Now the Golden Gophers will be up against a Michigan offense that simply lacks firepower, which is going to make it hard to cover this big spread on the road.

The Wolverines are only averaging 28.6 points, 367.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opposing defenses that allow 25.5 points, 380 yards per game and 5.4 per play. So, Michigan essentially has a below-average offense. Jake Rudock is not a very good quarterback as the Wolverines are only averaging 186 passing yards per game. Minnesota defends the run pretty well, allowing 3.9 yards per carry this season.

Last year, Minnesota thoroughly dominated Michigan 30-14 on the road behind a strong defensive effort. It outgained the Wolverines 373-171 for the game, or by 202 total yards. I look for this Minnesota defense to limit what Rudock and company can do again, and for that to be the reason this game goes down to the wire with the Golden Gophers getting the cover in the end.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MINNESOTA) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 224-143 (61%) ATS since 1992. The Wolverines are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 road games. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Minnesota is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win after starting the season 0-2.  They've played some pretty tough competition in the early going with games against Toronto and Memphis, two of the better teams from their respective conferences.

But now they take a step down in competition and face the Utah Jazz, who are a fringe playoff contender in the West.  The Pacers will be fresh and ready to go after having yesterday off, while the Jazz will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing the 76ers on the road yesterday.

The Pacers have owned the Jazz in this series, going 6-1 in the last seven meetings with their only loss coming in overtime.  All six wins have come by three points or more as well.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State +27

The Utah Utes continue to be way overvalued here.  I have faded them in three straight games with a 2-1 ATS record.  They only won 30-24 at home against Cal as 7-point favorites and would have lost that game if not for 6 turnovers by the Golden Bears.  They managed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 34-18 home win over Arizona State the next week despite trailing 14-18 entering the fourth quarter.

But their luck ran out last week against a better team in USC, losing 24-42 on the road as 6.5-point underdogs.  Now I question the Utes' state of mind knowing that their national title hopes took a serious hit last week.  Sure, they can win out and would still have a chance to make the four-team playoff, but it's not likely.  Frankly, I don't think they're good enough to win out anyway.  But it's clear that loss and where they stand is still on the players and coach's minds.

''Life moves on. We have to be ready for the next game, the next opponent and the next challenge. Like I said, we still control our own destiny. We can't let this (loss at USC) affect us in a negative way. There can be no hangover in this next game from last week.'' said head coach Kyle Whittingham.

''My guess is that there won't be any undefeated teams in the Power 5 at the end of the season, maybe one,'' Whittingham said. ''When you look back, it's really hard to go undefeated. We don't really care about anything but this week, but historically, it's really hard to go undefeated.''

''If you had told us in August that seven games in, we'd be 6-1 with a one-game lead in the South, I think we would have taken that,'' Whittingham said. ''We're not disappointed with where we are. Obviously, we're disappointed with the loss on Saturday, but we think we're in pretty good shape."

There were a lot of positives for Utah that can be taken out of those comments, but the fact that they are talking about it so much means the loss is clearly on their minds.  Even though Whittingham talks about not having a hangover, that's typically what happens after a loss like that one to USC.  He's right that they'd take being 6-1 right now because they are very fortunate to have six wins.

In fact, Utah has been outgained in four of its seven games this season.  That's the type of thing you would expect from a 3-4 team and not one that is 6-1.  I never once believed this team was a national title contender.  They are only outgaining opponents by 19.1 yards per game on the season, which is nowhere near what you would see from teams like Clemson, Ohio State and other real contenders.

Oregon State is just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS on the season, so it could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Beavers, which has created some artificial line inflation here as the oddsmakers know this.  I'll gladly take the 27 points here.

It also actually helps that Oregon State lost to Colorado 13-17 at home last week.  But the Beavers really dominated that game in outgaining the Buffaloes by 73 total yards.  Their offense came through with one of their best performances of the season in gaining 401 yards, while their defense also played one of its best games in giving up just 328 total yards.

The last two meetings between Utah and Oregon State have actually gone into overtime with the road team winning both times.  In fact, they have split the last six meetings in this series 3-3 and each has been decided by 19 points or less, so it has been closely contested.  I wouldn't be shocked at all if this one goes down to the wire as well even with the Beavers as 27-point dogs here.

One key to point out that may be getting overlooked is that Kilane Sitake is a first-year defensive coordinator at Oregon State.  That's important because Sitake was was an assistant at Utah for the last 11 years, including the last four as defensive coordinator.  He is very familiar with the Utes' offense and will have a great game plan to stop it.  That won't take much because the Utah offense is the weakness on the team, averaging only 390.1 yards per game.

Gary Anderson is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Oregon State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent, actually coming back to win by an average of 4.7 points per game in this spot.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -1.5

The Florida Gators continue to be undervalued this week as only 3-point favorites over the reeling Georgia Bulldogs. I know that both teams still have a lot to play for and the winner will control their own destiny in the SEC East, but the fact of the matter is that the Gators are the better team in 2015. I look for them to get the job done in Jacksonville and for them to take a commanding lead in the division.

Florida has some seriously impressive wins this season. It beat Tennessee 28-27 at home, followed by a 38-10 home win over national title contender Ole Miss, and then a 21-3 road win at Missouri. Even in the game the Gators lost they gave LSU all they could handle on the road, and Baton Rouge is no easy place to play. This was a 28-28 game in the fourth quarter before LSU got a game-winning fake field goal for a TD to win 35-28.

Georgia’s last three games are great for comparing it to Florida. The Bulldogs lost 10-38 at home to Alabama, which is the same team that Ole Miss beat 43-37 on the road, and that’s the same Ole Miss team Florida beat 38-10 at home. The Bulldogs also lost 31-38 at Tennessee, while the Gators beat the Vols 28-27 at home. Georgia only beat Missouri 9-6 at home, while Florida beat Missouri 21-3 on the road. These common opponents show that the Gators have a huge edge here.

Yes, the loss of QB Will Grier certainly hurts the Gators, but I don’t think it’s as big of a loss as it’s perceived to be. Treon Harris has plenty of starting experience and came through with one of the best performances of his career at LSU. He threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the loss. Again, Baton Rouge is an extremely difficult place to play.

The bigger loss is Georgia’s Nick Chubb, who is one of the best backs in the country. The Bulldogs never recovered once Chubb went out with an injury in the loss to Tennessee. Then, their offense was really held in check in their first game without him against Missouri. They only won that game 9-6 and gained just 298 total yards against the Tigers, including 120 rushing on 45 carries. That’s an average of just 2.7 yards per carry and shows that they really miss Chubb.

Harris led the Gators to a 38-20 upset win over Georgia last season as they racked up 445 yards of total offense.  This was a down Florida team last year and one that is nowhere near as good as it is this season.  It was also a Georgia team last year that isn't nearly as good as the one that will be on the field in the 2015 meeting.  Chubb rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown on the Gators last year and will be missed.

Grayson Lambert has been playing so poorly that Georgia is desperate enough to start third-string QB Faton Bauta, who will be making his first career start.  Bauta has seen very limited action and is the Bulldogs' holder on extra points.  This isn't the kind of defense you want to be up against when you're making your first start.

The Gators are only giving up 17.3 points, 314.4 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.4 points, 412 yards per game and 5.9 per play. So, the Gators are holding their opponents to 12.1 points, 98 yards and 1.2 per play less than their season averages.

Florida is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 road games following a bye week. The Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games following one or more consecutive games that went over the total. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy +24

The Troy Trojans are just 2-5 on the season, but they played about as tough of an early schedule as anyone in the country.  That tough early schedule made them battle-tested and it is starting to pay off against lesser competition.  Indeed, the Trojans are coming off their best performance of the season in a 52-7 road win at New Mexico State as only 3-point favorites.  They racked up 482 yards of total offense in the win.

In its first five games, Troy had to play road games at NC State, Wisconsin and Mississippi State.  But it actually covered the spread in two of those three games, and not once did it lose by more than 28 points to any of those three teams.  Now the oddsmakers are asking the Trojans to stay within 24 points of Appalachian State on the road, and I don't believe that will be a problem because App State isn't as good as any of those three aforementioned teams.

Appalachian State is overvalued right now due to its 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start against some very soft competitions.  Its lone loss came at Clemson 10-41, but its six wins have come against Howard, Old Dominion, Wyoming, Georgia State, LA Monroe and Georgia Southern.  Those are some of the worst teams in the entire country, so I'm not willing to give the Mountaineers that much credit for them.

There's no doubt that the Mountaineers' 31-13 home win over Georgia Southern last week was impressive.  They covered the 6.5-point spread with ease, which was their third straight ATS victory, which has them overvalued.  It also has the Mountaineers in a huge letdown spot here off such a big win.  Everyone was calling that game against Georgia Southern the "defacto Sun Belt Championship", and that was probably the case.  But just as big of a game against Sun Belt contender Arkansas State looms on deck next week, so this is the ultimate sandwich game.  Look for the Mountaineers to come out flat in this one.

Despite such a tough schedule, Troy's defense is only giving up 26.9 points, 378.7 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Its biggest improvement this season has come on defense, and the stop unit gives it a chance to be competitive in this game against Appalachian State.  But QB Brandon Silvers also gives the Trojans a fighting chance.  He's completing 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,046 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record, 9-4 ATS after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 yards in their previous game.  Roll with Troy Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -4.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions should be much bigger favorites at home against the Illinois Fighting Illini this week.  There is a lot of value with the Nittany Lions in laying less than a touchdown at home here.

While it hasn't been pretty at times, the fact of the matter is that Penn State is 6-2 this season and one of the best teams in the big Ten.  The struggles have been on the road with losses to Temple and Ohio State, two teams who are a combined 14-0 right now.  They also barely beat a Maryland team last week that had two weeks to prepare for Penn State and a new head coach, which had their team inspired.

But that 31-30 win by the Nittany Lions has them undervalued here because it was a bad spot for them.  Keep in mind that they were coming off a crushing loss to Ohio State the previous week.  It's always hard to come back from a loss to the defending national champion.  But because that game against Maryland was close, it has kept this line lower than it should be.  Look for a renewed focus for the Nittany Lions this week.

It has been a completely different story for Penn State at home.  It is 5-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game.  Its defense has been especially dominant at home, giving up just 11.8 points and 269.6 yards per game this season.

Illinois has also played much better at home than on the road.  It is 4-1 at home with its lone loss coming to Wisconsin last week by a final of 24-13.  It had to be disappointing that the Fighting Illini didn't win that game because they had two full weeks to prepare for the Badgers, yet still lost by double-digits.  That makes this a bad spot for them.

But Illinois is 0-2 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.5 points per game.  Its defense has been shredded for 38.5 points and 474.5 yards per game on the road.  It lost 14-48 at North Carolina on the road back in Week 3.  It also lost 20-29 at Iowa two games ago.  That games against Iowa was relatively close, keep in mind that Iowa was coming off a big win against Wisconsin the previous week, so it was a letdown spot for the Hawkeyes.

Penn State's three poor performances this season have come against dual-threat quarterbacks as well in Temple, Ohio State and Maryland.  Fortunately, Illinois has a pocket passer in Wes Lunt.  That's going to be key because the Nittany Lions lead the country with 31 sacks.  Carl Nassib leads the NCAA with 12.5 sacks on his own and came up with a huge sack late against Maryland to preserve the win.  That makes this an excellent machup for the Nittany Lions as they should be in Lunt's grill all day, and he's not going to be able to use his legs to beat them.

Illinois is missing a couple of key weapons on offense, too.  The Fighting Illini are expected to be without starting tight end Tyler White due to a knee injury.  Starting running back Josh Ferguson is also expected to miss his third straight game with a shoulder injury.  They were already without their top receiver from last year in Mike Dudek.  The injuries just keep piling up for this offense.

Penn State wants revenge from a 14-16 loss at Illinois last year as well.  It should have no problem getting it considering the Nittany Lions are 4-0 the next season following a loss to Illinois with an average margin of victory of 12.0 points per game.  They are also 8-1 in their last nine home meetings with Illinois.

James Franklin is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are coming back to win by an average of 23.6 points per game in this spot.  I'll back this 100% never lost system here with Franklin and the Nittany Lions.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Auburn ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -7

These are two teams heading in opposite directions both in the standings and emotionally right now. Ole Miss is coming off a huge season-saving 23-3 win over Texas A&M in an absolutely dominant effort. The Rebels outgained the Aggies by 279 yards and held them to just 192. They still control their own destiny in the SEC West because if they win out, they will win the division.

At 1-3 within the conference, Auburn has nothing to play for but pride. The Tigers did show plenty of pride in their game against Arkansas last week, but the way they lost will take a lot out of them emotionally and physically. Losing a four-overtime thriller 46-54 to the Razorbacks had to be draining. I look for the Tigers to suffer a big-time hangover this week as they aren’t able to get back up off the mat in time to beat an Ole Miss team with much bigger aspirations.

The Rebels should be favored in every game from here on out as they play road games at Auburn and Mississippi State, which are the two worst teams in the SEC West. They play two of the better teams in Arkansas and LSU at home. I really like their chances of winning out and winning the SEC West. I still believe this is the best team in the entire SEC even with two losses on the season already.

Ole Miss has been putting up the types of numbers you would expect from a team capable of winning the SEC. It is averaging 41.0 points, 514.7 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that allow 33.6 points, 428 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Defensively, it is holding opponents to 19.7 points, 338.5 yards per game and 4.3 per play against teams that average 26.3 points, 392 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Auburn has put up the kind of numbers you would expect from a rebuilding team, which is exactly what it is. The Tigers average just 363.1 yards per game offensively and give up 430.6 yards per game defensively, getting outgained by an average of 67.5 yards per game. In fact, the Tigers have been outgained in six of their seven games this season. That includes games against Jacksonville State, Kentucky and San Jose State.

Ole Miss is going to want revenge from a 35-31 home loss to Auburn last year. The Rebels were going in for the game-winning score before Laquan Treadwell fumbled at the 1-yard line and suffered a season-ending injury in the process. Treadwell has come back stronger than ever this year, leading the SEC with 54 catches for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, it helps to have a guy like Chad Kelly throwing him the ball. Kelly is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,475 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.

Treadwell spent several months rehabbing, and he said the emotional aspect of this rematch hit him immediately once Ole Miss finished its win against Texas A&M and he realized Auburn was next.  "They're going to feel my pain," he said. "I'm just going to play my hardest, play with heart like I did last week and my team will do the same and we hope to get the W."

Senior linebacker C.J. Johnson returned against Texas A&M after missing two weeks because of a knee injury.  His presence was felt immediately when he recovered a fumble early in that game.  The best defensive player in the entire SEC is DT Robert Nkemdiche, who has missed most of the past two games due to a concussion.  But coach Hugh Freeze said that Nkemdiche is expected to return this week.

Ole Miss is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games after committing four or more turnovers in its previous game. Auburn is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games, 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record, 0-7 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last two seasons, and 1-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the Rebels.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +25

The Old Dominion Monarchs are the only team in the country that has yet to cover a spread this season.  They are 0-7 against the spread in 2015.  If you've followed me, you know I like backing teams who are on extended ATS losing streaks because there is artificial inflation in their lines.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, and the oddsmakers know this so they are forced to tack extra points onto the favorite to try and get equal action on both sides of the game.

But Old Dominion is a better team than its 0-7 ATS mark shows.  It has gone 3-4 straight up and is more than capable of staying within 25 points of Western Kentucky this week at home.  Its four losses have come to some good teams in NC State, Appalachian State, Marshall, and Florida International.  It lost by 24 to NC State at home and by 20 at Marshall.  But that game at Marhsall was closer than the final score showed as the Monarchs were only outgained by 39 yards.

Also adding to this line inflation was a 12-41 loss at Florida International last week.  Sure, that score looks awful, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was much closer.  Old Dominion actually outgained FIU 498-448 for the game, or by 50 total yards.  That's right, the Monarchs nearly gained 500 yards of offense yet were held to only 12 points, which is a complete fluke.  Had they not been "blown out" last week, they wouldn't be catching 25 points this week.

Western Kentucky is a quality team and one of the best in Conference USA.  But asking the Hilltoppers to go on the road and win by more than 25 points to cover this spread is asking too much.  That's especially the case considering the awful spot the Hilltoppers are in this week.

They treated the game against LSU last week as their Super Bowl.  They hung tough for a half but were eventually blown out by a final of 20-48.  After that trip to Baton Rouge, which is one of the toughest and coolest places in the country, the Hilltoppers can't help but suffer an emotional hangover here.  They won't be up for Old Dominion at all and will feel like they just have to show up to win.

The Hilltoppers are also beat up defensively after that physical game against LSU.  Now they'll be facing an Old Dominion rushing attack that produced 297 yards against FIU last week.  ODU has rushed for at least 184 yards in four of its seven games this season and averages 4.8 yards per carry.  WKU gives up 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Hilltoppers have allowed at least 176 rushing yards in five of their eight games.  They also haven't had a bye week yet, so they have to be running out of gas.

Old Dominion wants revenge from a 51-66 road loss to Western Kentucky last year.  This was a shootout in every sense of the word as both teams racked up more than 600 yards of offense.  The Monarchs actually outgained the Hilltoppers 643-601 for the game.  But the difference was that WKU scored two non-offensive touchdown with one kick return and one interception return for a TD.  I'm banking on the Hilltoppers not getting those breaks again.

WKU is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past three seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-10 ATS in road games after playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored over the last three years.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* CFB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming +27

Because they are just 1-7 on the season with one win, the Wyoming Cowboys have been grossly undervalued here in recent weeks.  As a result, they have been able to go 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oddsmakers are continuing to undervalue them as 27-point underdogs here to the Utah State Aggies.

In fact, Wyoming hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points all season.  That 20-point loss came last week as a 33.5-point road underdog to Boise State.  The Cowboys lost that game 14-34.  If they can stay within 20 of Boise State, there's no question they can hang with Utah State for four quarters and stay within 27.

The key here is that Utah State isn't an explosive offensive team and will struggle to cover this big spread because of it.  The Aggies were held to just 239 total yards in a 14-48 loss at San Diego State last week.  They are only averaging 338.1 yards per game this season, including 172 passing.  Their offense is sub-par to say the least.

Wyoming running back Brian Hill became the fastest running back in Wyoming history to reach 1,000 rushing yards this season.  The Cowboys ride him hard, and he should be able to find plenty of success on the ground against a Utah State defense that yielded a whopping 336 rushing yards to San Diego State last week.

Last year, Utah State beat Wyoming 20-3 on the road as 7.5-point favorites.  While this was a 17-point game, it was much closer than that as Wyoming actually outgained Utah State 363-356 for the game.  To only come away with three points with 363 yards of offense is really hard to do.  Look for the Cowboys to capitalize on more of their opportunities this time around as this one is closer than expected.

Utah State is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more.  The Aggies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a loss by 28 points or more.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Wyoming Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -4

I was on the Denver Nuggets in their opener when they won 105-85 at Houston as 11-point underdogs.  I'm going to ride them again in their second game of the season as I still believe they're way undervalued right now as only 4-point home favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The loss of Ty Lawson is overblown for the Nuggets.  They replaced him with a player who is going to be way more important to the franchise in rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who played professionally in China last year.  Mudiay had 17 points and nine assists in the opener against the Rockets.

But there's still plenty of talent on this team.  Kenneth Faried is back and had 18 points and nine rebounds in the opener.  Danilo Gallinari is finally healthy and led the way with 23 points and eight boards against the Rockets.  Joffrey Lauvergne is a guy to keep your eye on as he had 11 points and seven boards.  Plus, Will Barton, Jameer Nelson, Darrell Arthur, Gary Harris and Randy Foye provide some really nice depth.

If it's not the Philadelphia 76ers, then the Minnesota Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA this season.  They won their opener against the Lakers 112-111 but had to erase a double-digit second half deficit to do so.  They were inspired in that game playing for former head coach Flip Saunders, who passed away at 60 years old.  But this team is not very good.

Minnesota has a decent future with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, but for now those are the only two players that you can be excited about.  The Timberwolves start two washed-up veterans in Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince, who combined for six points in the opener.  Ricky Rubio scored a career-high 28 points, but don't expect that to continue as he's never been known as a scorer.  Kevin Martin takes too many bad shots and hijacks the offense.

Denver won three out of four meetings with Minnesota last year with all three wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on one days' rest.  Denver is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* Royals/Mets World Series Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 7

The first two games of this series went over the total under American League rules in Kansas City.  But they barely went over the 7-run total both times.  Kansas City hit a homer in the bottom of the 9th in Game 1 to force extra innings and tie the game 4-4, otherwise it would have been a push.  The Royals also tacked on some late runs in the 8th inning to win 7-1 in Game 2 and go over the total by a single run.

But now these teams go to National League rules without the designated hitter in New York.  That's two extra easy outs every 2-3 innings.  I look for both Yordano Ventura and Noah Syndergaard to shut down the opposition in this one.

Syndergaard is 8-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in 13 home starts this season, and 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last three starts.  Ventura is coming off his best postseason start yet, allowing one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-3 win over Toronto in the series clincher last time out.

The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Ventura's last six interleague starts.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Mets last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Syndergaard's 13 home starts this season.  The UNDER is 59-29-3 in Mets last 91 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics finished last season strong and got even better in the offseason.  It led to one of the best preseason performances in the NBA.  The Celtics went 6-1 in preseason and ranked 2nd in the league in efficiency, outscoring teams by 11.6 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Thunder were better.

The solid play carried over into the regular season opener as the Celtics topped the 76ers 112-95 at home as 12.5-point favorites.  They held Philadelphia to just 40.5% shooting and forced 22 turnovers.  Now they take a step up in competition here, but I look for them to get it done as only 2-point home favorites over the Raptors.

I'm also pretty high on Toronto this year, but the Celtics will likely prove to be the better team in the end.  The Raptors did won 106-99 at home over the Pacers in their opener, but had to erase a double-digit deficit to do so.  They turned the ball over 20 times in that game and the Celtics will feast on their poor ball handling in this one to create plenty of easy scoring opportunities in transition.

Boston won each of its final two meetings with Toronto last year.  The Raptors are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Boston is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 after playing a game as a home favorite.  The Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Boston is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 home games and 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  Take the Celtics Friday.

15* Mavs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +11

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be playing some inspired basketball in this one.  They are not happy with the Los Angeles Clippers, who stole DeAndre Jordan back from them in the offseason.  I look for these Mavericks to take it personally and to come out with a great effort in this one.

I was very impressed with the Mavericks last night in their 111-95 road win at Phoenix.  They had eight players score in double figures in a complete team effort.  The Mavericks also got a chance to rest a little for this game after building a 27-point lead in the third quarter.

Los Angeles was in a dogfight with Sacramento on the road last night and won't be as fresh coming in.  The Clippers needed to go on an 11-4 run to close out the game to win 111-104.  They aren't going to have what it takes to put away the Mavs by double-digits in this one.

The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.  The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami +9

The Miami Dolphins have been a completely different team under Dan Campbell. His passion for the game has really rubbed off on his players, and to a man, every player is taking accountability. It’s really been one of the best transformations of a team I’ve ever seen when a head coach has been fired midseason like Joe Philbin was. I don’t expect these players to slow down any time soon, especially against rival New England this week.

Miami went on the road and throttled Tennessee 38-10 in Campbell’s first game. The offense produced 434 total yards including 180 rushing as they got back to being physical. Lamar Miller had 113 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, and Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 29 passes for 266 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The defense forced four turnovers by the Titans as they outgained them by 135 yards.

Last week against the Texans was even more impressive from the Dolphins as they crushed a solid team. They led 41-0 at halftime and wound up winning 44-26 after the Texans scored 26 points in garbage time after intermission with the game well out of reach. They racked up 503 total yards of offense with 248 rushing, including 175 and a touchdown from Miller. Tannehill had one of his best games as a pro, completing 18 of 19 passes for 282 yards and four touchdowns. They outgained the Texans by 181 total yards in the win.

New England is overvalued right now because it has gone 6-0 SU & 3-1-2 ATS thus far to make the betting public who backs them on a regular basis some decent money. But the last two weeks the Patriots have been vulnerable. They only won 34-27 at Indianapolis while outgaining the Colts by only eight yards. They also won 30-23 at home against the Jets last week while getting outgained by 19 yards. I think the Dolphins, with the way they are playing right now, can certainly stay within a touchdown of the Patriots like the Colts and Jets did.

Miami has played New England extremely tough the last two years. In 2013, they lost 17-27 at New England after having a 17-3 lead at halftime. They outgained the Patriots 301-252 for the game. They beat the Patriots 24-20 at home in 2013 and 33-20 at home in 2014. Then last year, they were only down 14-13 at halftime to the Patriots on the road but went on to lose 41-13 despite only getting outgained 384-395.

So the Dolphins have been on the verge of pulling the upset on the road at the half each of the last two years. I finally believe they have the mental strength now to get over that hurdle and finish the deal. The Dolphins are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Miami is 39-23 ATS in its last 62 road games after covering the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  Bet the Dolphins Thursday.

15* WVU/TCU Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +14.5

The Mountaineers are one of the best teams in the country to have a record of .500 or worse right now. That record can be attributed to a very tough schedule in Big 12 play to start. The Mountaineers have had to play road games at Oklahoma and Baylor, and they lost a home game to Oklahoma State in overtime. Baylor and Oklahoma State are still undefeated, while Oklahoma has just one loss.

TCU has been vulnerable this season and should not be favored by two touchdowns against this solid WVU outfit. The Horned Frogs already have three very close wins over Minnesota (23-17), Texas Tech (55-52) and Kansas State (52-45). West Virginia is better than all three of those teams and can hang with the Horned Frogs in this one because of it.

TCU has played Stephen F. Austin, Texas and SMU at home this season. It even was in a dogfight with SMU for four quarters before scoring the final two touchdowns of the game to pull out a 56-37 victory as 37-point favorites. West Virginia will be by far the best team that TCU has faced not only at home, but for the entire season as well.

The numbers show that West Virginia really is a great team. It is putting up 36.3 points and 485 yards per game against opposing defenses that only allow 26.9 points and 384 yards per game. It is also giving up 27.0 points and 401 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 39.2 points and 484 yards per game.

While TCU was expected to have a great offense this season and that has proven to be the case, its defense certainly is nowhere near to the level it was last season. The Horned Frogs are giving up 26.6 points and 397 yards per game against opposing offenses that only average 25.8 points and 374 yards per game.

The road team has gone 3-0 SU the last three years in meetings between these teams as Big 12 opponents with all three decided by a field goal or less. West Virginia went to TCU and won 30-27 as 11-point underdogs in 2013. The Mountaineers are going to want revenge from their 30-31 home loss to the Horned Frogs as 3.5-point dogs last year. They held them to just 389 total yards in that loss.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that has covered the spread in two of their last three games are 224-143 (61%) ATS since 1992. The Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with West Virginia Thursday.

20* UNC/Pitt ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +2

It’s a little bit surprising to me that North Carolina is actually favored on the road in this one. The Tar Heels are certainly improved from last year and brought a lot of talent back. Their defensive improvement has made the biggest difference this year behind coordinator Gene Chizik. But the Tar Heels should not be favored in this one.

Pittsburgh has played a more difficult schedule this year. It has played five of its first seven games on the road, which makes its 6-1 record that much more impressive. Its only loss came at Iowa by a final of 24-27 on a last-second field goal. Iowa is still unbeaten at 7-0 on the season. The Panthers have also gone on the road and beaten Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Akron.

North Carolina has taken advantage of an easy early schedule. It has only played one true road game this season, which was a 38-31 win at Georgia Tech. It has played five of its first seven games at home, and those five were against NC A&T, Illinois, Delaware, Wake Forest and Virginia. Its lone loss came against South Carolina by a final of 17-13 on a neutral field. We’ve all seen how poor the Gamecocks are this year since that game.

Pittsburgh is going to want some revenge here after losing to the Tar Heels by a touchdown or less each of the past two seasons. The Panthers racked up 523 total yards on the Tar Heels and outgained them despite losing 35-40 on the road last year. Pat Narduzzi’s team is improved this year and a legitimate threat to win the ACC.

This Pittsburgh defense has been dynamite under Narduzzi. It is only giving up 21.6 points, 309 yards per game and 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.6 points, 382 yards per game and 5.6 per play. So this defense is holding opposing offenses to 9.0 points and 73 yards per game less than their season averages.

UNC’s defense is improved, but you have to consider the ease of the schedule in which it has played. The Tar Heels are only giving up 350 yards per game defensively, but when you see that opposing offenses only average 346 yards per game on the season, it’s not that impressive. This is pretty much just an average Tar Heels defense that has taken advantage of their schedule.

The Tar Heels are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following four or more consecutive wins. North Carolina is 22-38 ATS in its last 60 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Panthers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Pittsburgh Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a mash unit right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without two starters in Tyreke Evans and Omer Asik, as well as key role players in Quincy Pondexter and Norris Cole.  The statuses of Jrue Holiday and Dante Cunningham are also in question.

The Pelicans were thoroughly outplayed in their 95-111 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night, trailing by nearly 20 points for a good portion of the game.  Now they have to play a second of a back-to-back with a short-handed club, which won't be easy.

Everyone is writing off the Portland Trail Blazers, but I believe they are going to be better than expected this year.  They ranked 14th in the preseason in efficiency, outscoring teams by 1.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Pelicans ranked just 25th in efficiency, getting outscored by 3.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Blazers still have one of the best players in the NBA in Damian Lillard running the show.  They added some established veterans in Gerald Henderson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis.  Plus C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard are both ready for bigger roles this year.  These players are going to be motivated from the start to prove their doubters wrong.

"Coming into this season, we're going to be underdogs and people may disrespect us, people may look at us like we can't compete with them," Lillard told the team's official website. "We've got to take that to heart. We've got to be offended by that and we've got to play like it."

The Blazers have won five straight meetings with the Pelicans, and they are 8-0 in their last eight home meetings with their last loss coming in 2010.  The Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* Mets/Royals World Series Game 2 No-Brainer on Kansas City +119

The Kansas City Royals won Game 1 in 14 innings after getting the game-tying home run from Alex Gordon in the bottom of the 9th to force extras.  It's going to be very tough for the Mets to recover from that kind of loss, and I look for the Royals to come into this Game 2 with a ton of confidence now.

Johnny Cueto certainly has been a disappointment for the Royals as a member of the American League, but he now gets to go against a National League team that he has had a lot of success against recently.  Plus, the right-hander is still 7-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 16 home starts this year.

Cueto is 3-2 with a 2.05 ERA in his last seven starts against the Mets, allowing just 10 earned runs over 44 innings of work.  He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of those seven starts, and he has held the Mets to two or fewer earned runs in six of them.

Cueto is 25-9 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons.  Cueto is  8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +11

The Denver Nuggets are getting no love from oddsmakers in the opener as double-digit road underdogs to the Houston Rockets.  I believe the Nuggets are going to be better than expected under first-year head coach Mike Malone, who was one of the hottest candidates on the market.

Denver may come away with the best player in the draft when it's all said and done in Emmanuel Mudiay, who takes over at the point for the departed Ty Lawson.  This is a team that returns some very good veterans in Kenneth Faried, a healthy Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  They are out to prove their doubters wrong this season, starting tonight.

"I love challenges," said Mudiay, who bypassed college to spend last year playing pro ball in China. "My team gives me a lot of confidence and has a lot of trust in me."

"I believe we have a chance to make the playoffs this year," Faried said. "I 100 percent believe that - 110 percent. I don't care what anybody has to say about it."

Houston is not at full strength right now and shouldn't be this heavy of a favorite as a result.  It is going to be without key big men Dwight Howard and Donatas Motiejunas, who are both listed as doubtful.  Look for the Nuggets to clean up on the boards and to get some easy second-chance points in this one that will help keep them in the game for four quarters.

The Nuggets went 4-3 in the preseason while the Rockets went just 3-5.  The Nuggets actually finished 12th in the NBA in preseason in efficiency, outscoring teams by 3.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are just 18th in efficiency, getting outscored by 0.7 points per 100 posssessions.  Houston is 53-79 ATS in its last 132 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -1

The Utah Jazz were quietly one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch last year.  They had the sixth-best winning percentage (65.5) in the NBA after the All-Star Break, which has them primed to be a dark horse in the Western Conference this year.

Gordon Heyward and Derrick Favors are entering their primes.  This team really took off when Rudy Gobert was inserted into the starting linuep after trading Enes Kanter.  Gobert averaged 11.1 points, 13.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks after the All-Star Break, and his presence makes this one of the best defenses in the NBA.

The Pistons are coming off an impressive 106-94 victory last night on the road over the Hawks.  But this is not a very deep team and all five of their starters played at least 34 minutes last night.  I'll gladly fade them in this second of a back-to-back situation to open the season.

The Jazz are 17-2 int heir last 19 meetings with the Pistons, including 8-1 in Detroit.  The Pistons are 59-91 ATS in their last 150 home games when playing the second of a back-to-back.  The Jazz are 9-1 ATS int their last 10 trips to Detroit.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors 2015 NBA Season Opener on New Orleans +10

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to want revenge on the Golden State Warriors from getting swept in the playoffs last year.  I look for them to give the Warriors all they want in the season opener and to easily cover this double-digit spread, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Warriors will receive their championship rings tonight.  While Steve Kerr will be present, he won't be coaching the team due to his back.  Assistant coach Luke Walton will be taking his place on the sidelines.  I don't expect the team to respond to Walton like they would to Kerr early in the season.  The ceremony will be a distraction to these players, too.

Alvin Gentry, who was the Warriors' assistant coach last year, is now the head coach of the Pelicans.  If there's anybody who would know how to slow down the Warriors, it's certainly Gentry.  He will have the Pelicans prepared to take down the defending champs in this one.

New Orleans is certainly a team on the rise.  It has arguably the best player in the NBA in Anthony Davis, who averaged 31.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and shot 54.0 percent against the Warriors in the playoffs last year.  Eric Gordon was second in the NBA in 3-point shooting last year at 44.8 percent.  Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are healthy to open the season, and they added veterans Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to help bolster the roster.

The Pelicans are 28-14 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Golden State.  Each of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 11 points or less, including four by 10 or fewer.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Mets/Royals World Series Game 1 No-Brainer on Kansas City -101

Ever since coming back from a 6-2 deficit in the 8th inning of an elimination game in Game 4 against Houston, the Kansas City Royals have just had the feel of a team that can't be beat.  They took out what I believe to be the best team in baseball in Toronto in six games and now I expect them to win Game 1 of the World Series.

The Royals won't be feeling any rust as they have only had three days off in between games after topping Toronto 4-3 in Game 6 on Friday.  But the Mets will certainly be feeling a little rust since they have had five days off in between games after last playing on October 21 in their 4-game sweep of the Cubs.  The last thing the Mets needed was this long of a layoff with how well they had been playing.

Edinson Volquez has been at his best at home this season, going 9-4 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 17 starts.  He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts against the Mets, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA while allowing four runs in 16 innings.  Matt Harvey has been at his worst on the road, going 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA in 12 starts away from home.

Kansas City is 14-3 (+11.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons. Volquez is 18-4 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season in his career.  Volquez is a perfect 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  Bet the Royals in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Ravens/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore +9

Despite being 1-5 on the season, the Ravens still have 10 games left.  Some say they'll pack it in, but that's not going to happen with more than half a season left.  It's also not going to happen under John Harbaugh, who is one of the best motivators in the game today.  It's certainly not going to happen this week on the biggest stage in the NFL on ESPN's Monday Night Football.

Baltimore could easily be 5-1 right now instead of 1-5.  Its five losses have come by a combined 22 points this season, and it has not lost once by more than 6 points all year.  That fact alone shows that there is value in backing the Ravens on this 9-point spread.  They have played a tough schedule this year, too, as this will be their 5th road games in 7 weeks to start the season.  They know that with a home-heavy schedule coming up, they can make a run.

Arizona is way overvalued right now due to posting some blowout wins against bad teams.  In fact, Arizona's four wins this season have come against New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, and Detroit, four teams who are a combined 7-17 on the season.  Not one of those teams is better than 2-4.  While the Ravens are 1-5, there's no question they are better than their record.

The betting public hasn't won a game yet when they've backed the Ravens.  That's because they are 0-5-1 against the spread on the season.  Because the public hasn't won on them, they are afraid to back them and automatically shift to the favored Cardinals.  But that has created some artificial line value for us to swoop in and back the Ravens. Again, this team hasn't lost by more than 6 points all season.

There is a nice system that goes right along with that way of thinking.  Plays on road teams (BALTIMORE) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a losing record are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Another is plays on road teams (BALTIMORE) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 years.  These teams on long ATS losing streaks are almost always undervalued.

"We have what it takes. We just have to get better, and we're going to find a way to do it," Harbaugh said.  I like the way he's thinking coming into this one, and I believe his players will buy in.  I also like the fact that Harbaugh is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or four of his last six games as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are actually winning these games by 9.8 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Eagles/Panthers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are finally playing up to their potential now. They are coming off back-to-back blowout victories over the New Orelans Saints and New York Giants by a combined 66-24 margin. They have done so despite committing six combined turnovers in the two games. After giving up a touchdown to the Giants on their opening possession, the Eagles went on to commit four turnovers, but the defense managed to prevent the Giants from scoring off of any of them.

This Eagles defense is hitting on all cylinders right now, getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks at an alarming rate. They have forced seven turnovers the past two weeks and will be getting after Cam Newton again in this one. They also held the Giants to just 247 total yards. Limiting the Saints and Giants to an average of 12.0 points per game the past two weeks is no small feat.

Philadelphia’s offense is starting to find its stride, too. It gained 185 rushing yards against the Saints and 155 against the Giants as DeMarco Murray has had much more room to operate behind improved offensive line play the past two weeks. The amazing thing is that the Eagles have committed 14 turnovers through six games, so if they start taking care of the football, they are going to be extremely dangerous going forward.  They also could be 5-1 as two of their losses came to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 5 points on the road when they held leads in the closing minutes.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Panthers. They put a lot into their game against the Seahawks last week. They had two weeks to prepare as they were coming off their bye, and they clearly wanted revenge from their loss in the NFC Championship Game. Despite trailing 20-7 in the second half, they managed to come back and win 27-23 in the final seconds. It was the fourth time this season that the Seahawks lost after leading in the fourth quarter. Off such an emotional win, it’s only human nature for the Panthers to suffer a letdown this week.

Philadelphia has owned Carolina in recent meetings. It is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Panthers, winning three times by 22 or more points. That includes a 45-21 home victory over the Panthers last season. Their defense held Carolina to just 317 total yards while forcing Cam Newton and company into five turnovers. Newton threw three picks and they also lost two fumbles.

The fact of the matter is that Carolina is overvalued due to its 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start. Its five wins have come against Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Seattle, who are a combined 9-20 this season. The Panthers have played the easiest schedule in the NFL when you look at the records of the teams they have faced. I still don’t believe this team is nearly as good as it is perceived to be, and the Eagles have the better team this season despite a worse record.

There’s no question the Eagles have the edge offensively in this one. They have averaged 33.0 points and 472.0 yards per game the past two weeks as they are hitting their stride. The Panthers only average 334.2 yards per game this season despite playing such a soft schedule. They still have all kinds of issues with their lack of playmakers outside. If they get behind in this one, they won’t have the ability to catch up.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +9.5

The New York Jets are the most underrated team in the National Football League this season. They are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition. They have outgained all five of their opponents this season, and in their only loss, they even outgained the Eagles by 92 yards. But they lost that game 17-24 at home thanks to an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles that proved to be the difference.

The numbers show that the Jets are one of the best teams in the NFL this season. All four of their wins have come by at least 13 points as they are outscoring the opposition by 10.8 points per game. But they also rank 1st in the entire NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 110.6 yards per game. That’s 31.9 yards per game better than second place.

The Jets lead the NFL in scoring defense (15.0 points/game) and total defense (269.2 yards/game). First-year head coach Todd Bowles has made a huge difference for this team, as have the additions of Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis on the outside. The Jets also recently got back DT Sheldon Richardson from a four-game suspension as he got some playing time against the Redskins last week in a dominant 34-20 win. This is the best defense in the NFL folks.

But what’s getting overlooked with the Jets is how improved their offense has been. Ryan Fitzpatrick is more than just a game manager, and he now has some ample weapons outside with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. The Jets are putting up 25.8 points and 379.8 yards per game to rank 8th in the NFL in total offense. But the key has been Chris Ivory and the ground game, which ranks 1st in the NFL at 146.0 rushing yards per contest.

A running game and a solid defense have allowed the Jets to play the Patriots extremely tough in recent years. In fact, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 3 points or less and by a combined 9 points. The Jets have held the Patriots to 232, 295, 313 and 231 yards in the last four meetings. That’s an average of 267.8 yards per game, which is might impressive when you consider what the Patriots are doing to everyone else. And now this is the best defense the Jets have had maybe ever.

This is a bad spot for New England. Sure, it will be up for this game because it’s a division game with first place on the line, but it put a lot into last week’s game against the Colts. Tom Brady and company wanted revenge for ‘Deflategate’, and while they downplayed it in the media after the game, it was clear that the win meant a lot to them. That was evident when Bill Belichick went over to Brady and hugged him after the win, and Brady even kept the game ball. That win meant a lot more to them than they are leading on.

The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC opponents. New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. AFC East foes. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to New England.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +3

It’s obvious right away that there is value in backing the Detroit Lions as a home underdog when you compare this line to the one in their first meeting back on September 20. Minnesota was a 2.5-point home favorite over Detroit in that game, and now Minnesota is a 3-point road favorite in the rematch. Based off the the line in their first meeting, the Lions should be 3 to 3.5-point favorites when adjusting for home field advantage. So we’re getting nearly 6 points of value here.

I like the mindset of the Lions after they battled the Bears for nearly five full quarters last week and were rewarded with a victory. They beat the Bears 37-34 (OT) in a game where they actually outgained them by 102 yards and should have won in regulation, but two muffed punts put them behind the eight ball.

The Lions exploded for 546 yards of total offense in the win. Matthew Stafford responded from getting benched the previous week with his best game of the year. He threw for 405 yards and four touchdowns with one interception, while the Lions also rushed for 155 yards as a team. Calvin Johnson showed that he’s still an elite receiver in this league, catching six balls for 166 yards and a touchdown. It’s certainly a performance that will lift the spirits of the team going forward.

Minnesota is overvalued due to its 4-1 ATS start, while Detroit is undervalued due to its 1-5 ATS start. The betting public has made a lot of money on the Vikings and will continue to ride them as a result, while they want nothing to do with the Lions due to their poor ATS results. That’s why we’re seeing the Vikings favored here when they shouldn’t be due to the oddsmakers adjusting to public perception.

The reality is that Minnesota is very fortunate to be 3-2 when you look at the numbers. The Vikings have been outgained in four of their five games this season. They actually rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 46.2 yards per game. To compare, Detroit is only getting outgained by 28.1 yards per game and is better than its 1-5 record would indicate.

A brutal schedule is the biggest reason for Detroit’s slow start. It has already had to play tough road games at San Diego, Minnesota and Seattle, while also playing Denver, Arizona and Chicago at home. In all reality, the Lions have had a chance to win in the fourth quarter of five of their six games. The only exception was a 17-42 loss to Arizona two weeks ago, but the Lions gave that game away with six turnovers. They actually outgained the Cardinals by 90 yards in the loss.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings. Indeed, the home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings. Minnesota is 23-40 ATS in its last 63 games as a road favorite. Detroit is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 home games when revenging a same-season loss to an opponent. Plays on home underdogs who failed to cover two of their last three games, with a winning percentage of 25% or less playing a team with a winning record are 123-66 (65.1%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +4.5

This line is a complete overreaction from the Dolphins’ win over the Titans last week. They hurt Marcus Mariota early with a low, dirty hit that hampered his performance the rest of the way. The Dolphins capitalized by coming up with four turnovers. It was a great spot to back the Dolphins because they were coming off a bye with a new head coach, but too much is being made of Dan Campbell. This has created some great line value to fade the Dolphins this week.

The Texans would be better than 2-4 if they had started Brian Hoyer every game. He answered the bell with 293 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars last week. Ryan Mallet has been awful, and Hoyer has been far and away the better quarterback. So with him going forward, and a healthy Arian Foster back, this Texans team is going to be a dangerous one the rest of the way.

Even with the uncertainty at quarterback up to this point, the Texans have put up the kind of numbers that would suggest they are much better than their 2-4 record. They have actually outgained four of their six opponents this year. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 45.0 yards per game. They’re in elite company as the top eight teams in yardage differential are the Jets, Chargers, Cardinals, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Bengals and Falcons, in that order.

While Houston’s defense has yet to live up to expectations, the offense has quietly been one of the best units in the NFL. The Texans rank 6th in the league in total offense at 393.8 yards per game this season. Again, that’s with Foster missing most of the season and Mallet at quarterback for half the games. Going forward, this offense has even more potential. DeAndre Hopkins has quietly been the best receiver in the NFL this year. He has 52 receptions for 726 yards and five touchdowns already.

When you compare Houston’s numbers to those of Miami, it’s not even close. Miami ranks 26th in the NFL in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 40.8 yards per game. Only the Browns, Raiders, Vikings, Rams, Colts and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some awful company. I don’t think that the Dolphins are magically fixed with Campbell as their head coach. Sure, they are playing with more fire now, but there are still a ton of issues with this team.

Houston has owned Miami, going 7-0 in the last seven meetings with the last two wins coming by an average of 15.0 points per game. The Dolphins are 17-34 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%. Miami is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. The Dolphins are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games overall.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

15* Utah/USC FOX Saturday No-Brainer on USC -3

I’m not ready to give up on the USC Trojans yet, and I don’t believe they have given up on themselves either. If they win out, they’ll still have a great shot to win the Pac-12 South, so their season is far from lost. But it starts with a win over Utah this week that would help turn their season around. It’s clear to me that their effort against Notre Dame showed that they are buying into interim coach Clay Helton, who also led them to a bowl victory over Fresno State two years ago, so the players trust him.

Indeed, USC arguably outplayed Notre Dame last week in its 31-41 road loss. The Trojans racked up 590 yards of total offense against a very good Fighting Irish defense, and they outgained them by 114 yards in the game. In fact, they have only been outgained once this season, and that was by 47 yards in a 31-41 home loss to Stanford. With the numbers this team is putting up, it’s clear to me that this is still one of the most talented teams in the country.

There’s no question in my mind that Utah is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Sure, the 6-0 start is solid, but the Utes have actually been outgained in three of their six games this season. They were outgained by Michigan, Utah State and California. They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 28.8 yards per game, which is not the sign of a national title contender. Their luck in the turnover department and special teams will come to an end here soon, and probably this week. They aren’t going to force 3.2 turnovers per game the rest of the way.

Meanwhile, USC has put up the kind of numbers that you would expect from a national title contender. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 108.2 yards per game this season. Its offense has been dynamite, and Helton is the offensive coordinator, so that’s not going to change any time soon. The Trojans are putting up 38.3 points, 510.7 yards per game and 7.5 per play. Utah, which is only averaging 396.3 yards per game and 5.6 per play, does not have the firepower to keep up with the Trojans.

Cody Kessler may be the best quarterback in the country, but he doesn’t get the kind of accolades he deserves. He is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 1,818 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. While USC clearly has the better offense, Utah only has a slight edge on defense. The Utes are giving up 19.5 points and 369.5 yards per game, while the Trojans are allowing 21.3 points and 402.5 yards per game.

USC is 9-1 ATS off one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. This team has been extremely resilient over the past couple seasons, and with a half a season left and the goal of winning the Pac-12 still within their grasp, I look for them to come back with a great effort this week.

"These kids want to go out and show the world how good they are and we plan on doing that in these last six games," Helton said.  You can bet that it's going to be a rowdy home crowd for this one with the No. 3 team in the country coming to town.  This is where the Trojans rally the troops and turn their season around.  Also, it's telling that USC is the favorite here despite being unranked and playing the No. 3 team.  Vegas agrees that the Trojans should be favored, and Utah is going to be a very public underdog this weekend.  Take USC Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +3

The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the most improved teams in the country.  While their 2-4 record doesn't reflect that, the fact of the matter is that they have been competitive in every game they have played.  They could easily be better than that record.  Now the Commodores are going to put a lot into this game against Missouri because it's Homecoming, plus they are looking for their first SEC win under Derek Mason.

Mason had a very young team last year, but he returned 18 starters this season, which was tied for the most in the SEC.  I like what I've seen from this team.  They were only outgained by 22 yards in their 14-31 home loss to Georgia.  They only lost 16-27 at Ole Miss as 27-point dogs.  They beat a good Middle Tennessee team 17-13 on the road and outgained them by 94 yards.  They also should have beaten Western Kentucky in a 12-14 home loss as they outgained the Hilltoppers by 147 yards.

Turnovers have hurt the Commodores, so if they can fix that problem they will win more games in a hurry.  They have committed 16 turnovers already, including five in the loss to South Carolina last week.  Look for ball security to be a priority this week, and if they take care of the football, they are a better team than Missouri and will win this game.

The Vanderbilt offense is certainly improved this year as it's averaging 400.3 yards per game against a pretty tough schedule.  But the defense is the strength of this team.  The Commodores are only giving up 18.5 points, 338.2 yards per game and 5.0 per play against teams that average 30.8 points, 410 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  So they are holding opponents to 12.3 points, 72 yards and 1.0 per play less than their season averages.

Missouri has one of the worst offenses in the country.  It ranks 116th in offensive efficiency as it is putting up just 16.6 points and 290.4 yards per game.  To compare, Kansas is the worst Power 5 team in this category at 120th.  The Tigers have been held to 9, 13, 24, 3 and 6 points over the past five weeks.  Vanderbilt boasts a top-20 defense in terms of efficiency.  Holding Western Kentucky to 12 points and Ole Miss to 27 is no small feat.

The Tigers are in a very poor state of mind right now.  They miraculously won the SEC East each of the last two seasons, which was completely a fluke.  Now they already have 3 SEC losses and no chance of winning the division.  I really question their motivation the rest of the way, especially after their 6-9 road loss to Georgia last week in which they managed just 164 yards of total offense.  It's going to be hard for them to get up for Vanderbilt this week.

The Commodores are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Commodores are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Vanderbilt is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 conference games.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.