15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -3

Virginia Tech is just 3-4 but is listed as a favorite over a ranked team this week.  I believe the oddsmakers have this one right, and that the Hokies should be bigger favorites.  They are a better team than Duke despite what the records say, and they certainly should be favored by more at home as a result.

The Hokies get back quarterback Michael Brewer, who almost led a comeback at Miami last week.  Remember, with a healthy Brewer, the Hokies led Ohio State 17-14 at the half here in Blacksburg.  Then Brewer got injured, and the wheels proceeded to fall off for the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is still very much alive in the ACC Coastal Division with just two conference losses.  It has faced the 33rd-toughest schedule in the country up to this point, while Duke has faced the 109th-toughest.  That's why the Blue Devils are 5-1 at this point.

Virginia Tech's five wins have come against Tulane, NC Central, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Army.  Its only loss came against the best team it played in Northwestern.  It also lost that game at home by a final of 10-19.  I would argue that Virginia Tech is the best team that the Blue Devils have faced yet.

The Hokies are 13-1 in their last 14 meetings with the Blue Devils.  Their only loss was very fluky in 2013.  They lost 10-13 despite outgaining the Blue Devils 387-198, or by 189 total yards.  They committed four turnovers in that game which allowed the Blue Devils to win.  But they went on the road last year and beat Duke, and I expect them to improve to 14-1 in the last 15 meetings with a comfortable home victory in 2015.

Frank Beamer is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game as the head coach of Virginia Tech.  Beamer is 15-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 14 or fewer points per game as the coach of the Hokies.  The Hokies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami +7.5

The Clemson Tigers have taken advantage of a favorable schedule to get to 6-0 at this point. While they have played some quality opponents such as Notre Dame, the fact of the matter is that five of its first six games have been at home. The Tigers do not lose at home often, so it’s not surprising that they are 6-0 right now.

In their only road game this season, the Tigers only beat Louisville 20-17 as 5-point favorites. That’s the same Louisville team that already has four losses on the season and clearly is not as good as most were expecting coming into the season. Asking the Tigers to go on the road and beat a better team than Louisville in Miami by a touchdown this week is asking too much.

Miami has played the more difficult schedule as it has already had three road games this season. Both of its losses came on the road to Cincinnati and Florida State, which are two quality teams. The Hurricanes only lost 24-29 at Florida State as 6-point underdogs and led that game in the 4th quarter with a chance to pull off the upset, showing what they were capable of.

The Hurricanes are a perfect 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.3 points per game. They beat Nebraska 36-33 in overtime in a game they led by 23 points in the fourth quarter, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Hurricanes racked up 397 total yards in a 30-20 home win over Virginia Tech last week as well.

You have to give Al Golden some credit because he is preaching ball security and a ball-hawking defense, and his team is listening. The Hurricanes have only turned the ball over twice this season while getting 15 takeaways, going +13 in turnover differential to this point. Turnovers will likely decide this game, so I’ll be glad to back the team that is taking better care of the football. Clemson has committed at least one turnover in all six games and 12 for the season.

Miami’s offense is getting it done this year with averages of 33.7 points, 443.8 yards per game and 6.4 per play. Sophomore QB Brad Kaaya is playing like a seasoned vet, completing 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,795 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. The two best passing offenses that Clemson faced were Notre Dame and Louisville. They gave up 253 passing yards to Louisville and 321 to Notre Dame.

Kaaya should have a big game Saturday as he's the best quarterback that Clemson has faced.  The Hurricanes rank 4th out of 65 Power 5 teams in passing offense efficiency.  Notre Dame is 13th and DeShone Kizer threw for 321 yards at Clemson, and keep in mind that game was played in the rain.

Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following six or more consecutive straight up wins. It is actually losing 29.7 to 32.9 on average in this spot. There’s no question that the Tigers are overvalued due to their 6-0 start. Al Golden is 14-3 ATS as a home underdog in all games he has coached. The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +16

The Charlotte 49ers aren't a team that the betting public wants anything to do with.  This is their first season in the FBS, so the public isn't familiar with them at all.  That's why they are going to always have a few extra points tacked onto their lines, because if the public plays 49ers games, they will be taking the opponent 80-plus percent of the time.

It hasn't been a great start for Charlotte as an FBS member as it is just 2-4.  But I've seen enough from this team to know that it can hang with 4-3 Southern Miss Saturday.  Take away turnovers, and the 49ers would would have one or two more wins right now.  They have committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers in six games, or an average of four per game.  That's why some of their scores were bigger blowouts than they should have been.

Charlotte opened the season with a 23-20 win at Georgia State  and a 34-10 home win over Presbyterian.  But then it committed seven turnovers apiece in its next two games against Middle Tennessee and FAU.  It only lost to FAU 7-17 as 10-point dogs even with those seven turnovers.  Its 3-37 loss to Temple was certainly closer than the final score.  The 49ers actually outgained the Owls by 32 yards in that game.  That's very impressive when you consider Temple is 7-0 right now an nationally ranked.

In fact, the 49ers have outgained five of their six opponents this season.  When you do that, you should go somewhere around 5-1, but the luck hasn't been on their side in the turnover department.  I liked what I saw from this team in a 34-37 loss at Old Dominion last week.  They racked up 536 yards of total offense and outgained the Monarchs by 54 yards.

Southern Miss is certainly an improved team this season, but I don't see any way it should be laying 16 points on the road to a team that has outgained five of six opponents.  I have not been impressed with the Eagles on the road this year.  They are 1-2 away from home with a 10-31 loss to Marshall.  Their only road win came at Texas State in overtime by a final of 56-50, and I believe Texas State is a very comparable team to Charlotte.  Their four wins have come against Austin Peay, North Texas, UTSA and Texas State with three of those coming at home.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1992.  Southern Miss is simply way overvalued right now due to starting 6-1 against the spread through its first seven games of the year.  The betting public has caught on, and now it's time to face the Eagles.  The Golden Eagles are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 conference games.  Take Charlotte Saturday.

15* Utah State/SDSU ESPN 2 Friday Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +5

The Utah State Aggies are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 52-26 home victory over the Boise State Broncos last week, pulling the upset as 7.5-point underdogs.  The Broncos had won 12 straight in that series, so the Aggies put a lot into that game trying to end that streak.  They will now come out flat a week later against San Diego State.

Sure, the final score was 52-26 last week against Boise, but that game was gift-wrapped by the Broncos.  They committed a ridiculous eight turnovers, and no team is going to win when giving the ball away that many times.  Boise State would be Utah State nine out of 10 times, but this was simply the Aggies' night.

The Aggies have now forced a combined 17 turnovers in their last four games, but their luck will run out tonight.  San Diego State has committed one or fewer turnovers in five of their seven games this year.  Head coach Rocky Long is great at getting his offense to value the football and relying on their defense to help win games.

Quietly, San Diego State has been playing some of the best football in the country during its 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS run.  It beat Fresno State 21-7 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the score showed as the Aztecs outgained the Bulldogs by 320 yards.  They outgained Hawaii by 151 yards in a 28-14 road win, and it's never easy coming away with a victory on the Islands.  Then last week, they went on the road and beat a solid San Jose State team 30-7 while outgained the Spartans by 229 yards.

Without question, the Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country.  They gave up just 89 total yards to Fresno State, 251 to Hawaii, and 148 to San Jose State the last three weeks.  They have given up just 9.3 points and 162.7 yards per game to those three teams, which is absolutely ridiculous.  The Utah State offense is only averaging 354.7 yards per game, and it will be in for a long day against Long's bunch.

Former Kentucky transfer Maxwell Smith is settling in at quarterback and making plays when he needs to.  He completed 73.3 percent of his passes against Hawaii and 71.4 against SJSU in his last two games.  He has a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season, so he's not hurting the team.  This offense relies on one of the most underrated backs in the country in Donnel Pumphrey, who has already rushed for 729 yards and eight touchdowns.  Chase Price (424 yards, 5.3/carry) has also been a nice compliment to him out of the backfield.

Plays against a road team (UTAH ST) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 33-7 (82.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Utah State is just 1-2 on the road this season with its only win at Fresno State.  The Aztecs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Take San Diego State Friday.

25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Blue Jays -126

The Toronto Blue Jays are 4-0 when facing elimination this postseason.  Not only are they winning those games, they are dominating, winning all four games by 3 runs or more and by a combined 17 runs.  I look for them to improve to 5-0 in these games Friday behind an inspired effort from David Price.

Price is taking a lot of criticism because he has not won a postseason game, but I'm not reading anything into that.  He's still one of the elite pitchers in the game and led the American League in regular season ERA.  This guy is going to be pitching with a chip on his shoulder tonight.

Price pitched 6 shutout innings in Kansas City in Game, but then a routine popup was not handled in the 7th inning, and the Royals went on to put together a string of fortunate hits that kept finding holes and knocked Price out of the game.  It was just a case of bad luck for one innings.

There's no question that Price is the better starter as he's 18-7 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 34 starts, including 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 17 road starts.  He is also 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in six career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are at a severe disadvantage with Yordano Ventura on the mound tonight.  He is 13-9 in spite of a 4.25 ERA and 1.332 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Ventura has really crumbled under the pressure of the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.784 WHIP in three postseason starts this year.  He has allowed eight earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Blue Jays.

Price is 17-3 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last three seasons.  Price is 55-26 (+18.7 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher in his career.  Bet the Blue Jays Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +10.5

Memphis could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now off that huge 37-24 win over Ole Miss. The Tigers moved all the way up to No. 18 in the Top 25 rankings after previously being unranked. The betting public is quick to back this team now because they are undefeated taking on a Tulsa team that has lost three of its last four.

But this is the ultimate letdown spot for Memphis. That win over Ole Miss was arguably the biggest in school history, and it’s only human nature to suffer a letdown off such a huge victory. The players will be receiving pats on the back all week for their efforts against Ole Miss, and I expect them to fail to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to beat Tulsa by double-digits.

Meanwhile, Tulsa could not possibly be more motivated now after losing three of its last four coming in. It will relish the opportunity to play in front of its home fans on the ESPN stage Friday night in what will be a hostile atmosphere. When you look at the quality of opponents faced recently, it’s easy to see why Tulsa last lost three of four.

Indeed, the three losses have come against East Carolina, Oklahoma and Houston. Both Oklahoma and Houston are ranked, while East Carolina has beaten Virginia Tech and nearly upset both Florida and BYU on the road. Tulsa only lost to Oklahoma and Houston by 14 points each, and it actually outgained ECU by 81 yards in its 17-30 road loss in a game that was much closer than the final score showed. The Golden Hurricane were going in for a score against ECU early in the 1st quarter, but then had an interception returned 100 yards for a touchdown. They weren’t able to recover.

The Golden Hurricane have the offensive firepower this season to keep up with the Tigers. They are putting up 33.3 points and 550.5 yards per game against opponents that only allow 27.9 points and 404 yards per game. They scored 38 on Oklahoma, 40 on New Mexico and 47 on Florida Atlantic. Dane Evans hast thrown for 2,127 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.8 per attempt.  He'll be able to keep up with Paxton Lynch and company.

Neither team has a very good defense, and Memphis is clearly down this year on that side of the ball after bringing back just three starters from last year’s solid stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 445.3 yards per game this season. Tulsa is going to be able to score with Memphis Friday night, which will help it stay within this 11-point spread.

Tulsa had won four straight meetings with Memphis before losing 20-40 on the road last year. But that game was much closer than the final score as the Tigers only outgained the Golden Hurricane 426-411. Evans threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against Memphis last year, and again, that Memphis defense was much better than the version he will be up against in 2015.  With 16 starters back for Tulsa and only 11 for Memphis, I think the home team is primed to get revenge here.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TULSA) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-79 (65.9%) ATS since 1992. Memphis is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following two or more consecutive straight up wins. The Golden Hurricane are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

15* Cal/UCLA ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on California +3.5

The Cal Golden Bears are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They could easily be 6-0 right now if they hadn’t turned the ball over six times at Utah last time out. They still only lost that game 24-30 and were driving for the winning score late before their 6th turnover. To play make that many mistakes and still have a chance to win against the No. 3 team in the country just shows how far this team has come.

The good news is that California has actually played its best football on the road this year. It beat Texas 45-44 in what was a 21-point game in the 4th quarter before a desperate comeback by the Longhorns late. They beat Washington 30-24 on the road in a game that was also a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears outgained the Huskies by 222 total yards. They outgained the Utes by 32 yards in their 24-30 loss last time out as well.

One of the biggest reasons to back California this week is that it will be the more rested team. It last played on Saturday, October 10, while UCLA last played on Thursday, October 15. So the Bears get five extra days to prepare for this game. UCLA is beaten up right now after giving up 310 rushing yards in its 35-56 road loss at Stanford last week. That was a 56-20 game before two touchdowns by the Bruins in garbage time, too.  It’s going to be tough to come back off such a physical game.

That loss to Stanford along with a 23-38 home loss to Arizona State as 12.5-point favorites shows that UCLA is really not as good as many expected it would be this season. The Bruins were also outgained by 123 yards by Arizona State in that loss. Their defense has given up 30-plus points in all three Pac-12 games and an average of 41.3 points per game.  It doesn't help that they're missing three of their best players in LB Myles Jack, CB Fabian Moreau and DT Eddie Vanderdoes, either.

That’s bad news for a Bruins defense that will be up against the best offense they have faced yet in California. The Golden Bears are putting up 40.2 points and 517.7 yards per game this season. Jared Goff is going to be extremely motivated after giving the game away against Utah with five interceptions. But he is still completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,970 yards, 8.8 per attempt, and a 17-9 TD/INT ratio.

California is vastly improved defensively this season. It is only giving up 24.5 points and 395 yards per game this season, including 27.3 points and 365.7 yards per game in conference play. I actually give the edge on both sides of the ball to the Golden Bears in this game, and throw in the extra rest and there’s no way there’s not value with the 3.5 points here.

The Golden Bears also want to avenge their 34-36 home loss to UCLA last season. They took a 34-33 lead with 6:50 to play, only for UCLA to go down and kick a game-winning field goal with 3:40 left. California is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Golden Bears are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. California is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. The Bruins are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 October games.  Take Cal Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Seahawks/49ers UNDER 42.5
While I was leaning toward taking Seattle when this line opened at -4, now that it has been bet up to -6.5 I don’t see a whole lot of value with the Seahawks any more. Instead, I believe the value is with the total as it has been bet up from 41 to 42 and 42.5 in some places. I would have liked it at 41 anyway, but now that it has gone up there is even more value here with the UNDER.

These are two 2-4 teams in desperate need of a victory. That will lead to all-out defense from both sides, especially for the Seahawks. They have been bashed in the media because they would be 6-0 right now if not for four blown fourth quarter leads. I look for their defense to take it personally and to shut down the 49ers in this matchup.

Without question, Seattle still has one of the best defenses in the NFL. It is giving up 20.8 points and 319.5 yards per game this season, which isn’t as good as in year’s past, but the Seahawks have played a tough schedule. They will now be up against a San Francisco offense that is one of the worst in the NFL in averaging just 16.7 points and 321.2 yards per game.

The 49ers have slipped a bit defensively this season, but it’s easy to see why because of the schedule. In their last five games, they have faced Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Those are five of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today. Russell Wilson is a solid quarterback, but he’s not the passer that those guys are and his biggest weapon is his ability to run the ball.

The 49ers have been battered defensively on the road, but at home it’s been a different story. The 49ers are only giving up 13.3 points per game at home this season. They held Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings to just 3 points, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to a season-low 17, and Joe Flacco and the Ravens to 20. They will be able slow down this mediocre Seahawks offense Thursday night.

This has quickly become one of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams have been battling for supremacy not only in the NFC West in recent years, but also to get to the Super Bowl from the NFC. They are extremely familiar with one another as they play a similar brand of football. They both have limited passers at quarterback and prefer to run the ball. They also both have elite defenses, though the 49ers have tailed off a bit this season, except at home.

In fact, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. They have combined for 40 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings, and they have averaged 30.8 points per game in the last five, all of which have gone UNDER the total. They have averaged 31.8 points per game in the last eight meetings combined. In the last three meetings in San Francisco, they have combined for 22, 36 and 19 points, or an average of 25.7 points per game. To say this has been a low-scoring series would be a massive understatement. I look for it to continue Thursday night.
San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER versus good rushing teams that average 130 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  It is combining with these teams for an average of 34.3 points per game.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Seahawks last 12 vs. NFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in 49ers last five vs. NFC West foes.  The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight Thursday games.
I believe a big reason this total is set to high is because the Seahawks and 49ers are both 2-0 to the OVER in their last two games coming in.  That has also helped create some nice line value on the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS Game 5 No-Brainer on Toronto -140

The Toronto Blue Jays were down 0-2 to the Texas Rangers last series.  They were faced with winning three straight games to advance, and that's precisely what they did.  They won't be phased down 3-1 and needing three straight wins to win this series entering Game 5.

Marco Estrada will want to avenge his loss to Edinson Volquez in Game 1.  Estrada is 13-9 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 30 starts, and 6-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 13 home starts.  He has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in three career starts against Kansas City.

Volquez pitched a gem in Game 1 with six shutout innings to get the win.  But it was a rare effective start for him against Toronto on a cold night in Kansas City.  Volquez is 1-4 witha  5.40 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in seven career starts against the Blue Jays.  He's also 5-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 18 road starts this year.

The Blue Jays are 17-8 in Estrada's last 25 starts.  Toronto is 44-20 in its last 64 home games.  The Blue Jays are 47-23 in their last 70 games overall.  Toronto is 37-14 in its last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Blue Jays Wednesday.

15* Mets/Cubs NLCS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +105

It's now or never for the Chicago Cubs.  We are getting them at a great price as they head home for Game 3 of this series listed as the underdogs.  There's no question that Jacob DeGrom is the better starter in this one, but at this price and given the must-win situation, we're getting great value in the Cubs.

Kyle Hendricks is not a bad starter himself.  He has been at his best at home this season, going 2-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Hendricks also finished the season strong, going 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.540 WHIP in his last three starts.

DeGrom has not had any success against the Cubs, going 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in three career starts against them.  The Mets are 0-3 in those starts.  He has allowed 11 earned runs, 4 homers and 26 base runners over 15 1/3 innings in those starts.

Meanwhile, Hendricks is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in two career starts against the Mets.  He has allowed just one earned run and nine base runners over 13 innings in those two starts dating back to the season.  DeGrom has never beaten the Cubs, and Hendricks has never lost to the Mets.  This is a pretty easy one folks.  Roll with the Cubs Tuesday.

15* UL-Lafayette/Arkansas State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas State -7

I was on the Red Wolves last week in their 49-31 win at South Alabama. I’ll hop back on board this week as well as the Red Wolves are neck-and-neck with Appalachian State and Georgia Southern as the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference this season. The Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year, which was their most since 2003. They have a veteran quarterback and the best set of receivers in the conference.

Arkansas State’s three losses this season have come against three teams who were ranked inside the Top 25 at one point. They were road losses to USC and Toledo, and a home loss to Missouri. They played Missouri right down to the wire, losing 20-27 as 9.5-point underdogs. Quarterback Freddi Knighten was injured late in that game, and he had to miss the next three games because of a groin injury.

But Knighten returned against South Alabama last week to lead the Red Wolves to an 18-point victory. He threw two touchdown passes while also rushing for 40 yards. But it was the defense that deserves most the credit. The Red Wolves held South Alabama to just 302 total yards while forcing five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.

The Red Wolves’ stop unit is vastly improved this season. They held the Jaguars to just 29 rushing yards on 32 carries, or an average of 0.9 yards per carry. They haven't allowed 200 rushing yards to any team this year.  That’s going to be key in this game because Louisiana-Lafayette relies heavily on the run. The Rajin’ Cajuns average 231 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry. But the Red Wolves have one of the best defensive lines in the Sun Belt, and they are only giving up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this season.

Arkansas State comes into this game extra motivated after losing the last two meetings with Louisiana-Lafayette. They lost 40-55 on the road last year despite outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns 595-521 for the game. They allowed Elijah McGuire to go off for career highs of 265 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The defense will take this rematch personally.

But the Red Wolves should find plenty of success on offense, just as they did last year. Knighten threw for 344 yards and accounted for four touchdowns, Michael Gordon ran for 134 yards on 15 carries, Dijon Pacshal caught 8 balls for 141 yards and two touchdowns, and J.D. McKissic had 7 grabs for 99 yards. All four of those studs are back this season for the Red Wolves.

I just cannot take Louisiana-Lafayette seriously when its only wins have come at home against awful teams in Northwestern State and Texas State. The Rajin’ Cajuns lost 14-35 at home to Akron despite being 7.5-point favorites and were outgained by 173 yards by the Zips, who have been pretty bad this season themselves. They also lost 14-43 at Louisiana Tech as 14-point underdogs. Those two performances show me that the Rajin’ Cajuns have clearly taken a big step back this season.

Turnovers are going to be key in this game, and I look for Arkansas State to win the turnover battle. This is an opportunistic defense that has forced three or more turnovers in four of its six games this season with 15 takeaways overall. Louisiana-Lafayette has committed at least three turnovers in three of its five games this season and 11 overall. The advantage at the QB position clearly goes to Knigten and the Red Wolves over first-year starter Jalen Nixon of the Rajin’ Cajuns, who played terribly up until the Texas State game last week.

Arkansas State is 2-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.3 pints per game. Its only home loss came to Missouri by a touchdown as mentioned before. Lafayette is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 18.0 points per game. The Red Wolves are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 conference games. Arkansas State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Take Arkansas State Tuesday.

20* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS Game 4 No-Doubt Rout on Toronto -144

The Toronto Blue Jays showed that they weren't about to go away quietly.  They put up eight runs on Johnny Cueto in the first two innings in Game 3 and forced him out of the contest.  They went on to win 11-8 after the Royals made it close with four runs in the 9th inning.  Now the Blue Jays will take Game 4 to even this series Tuesday.

After facing heat last night from Marcus Stroman, the Royals are going to have to go up against knuckleballer R.A. Dickey today, which is going to be a tough adjustment.  Dickey has been dominant since the All-Star break, especially at home where he is 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA in his last eight starts.  Dickey is 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last four starts against the Royals, pitching seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball against them in a 5-2 victory on August 2.

Chris Young certainly deserves a start for the Royals, but his soft stuff is going to be no match for the power of the Blue Jays.  Young allowed 13 homers in less than 100 innings pitched this season.  He is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.  He gave up three runs and a homer in a 2-6 loss to the Blue Jays on July 11.

Dickey is 18-5 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last three seasons.  The Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Blue Jays are 44-19 in their last 63 home games.  Toronto is 12-3 in Dickey's last 15 starts, including 6-2 in his last seven home starts.  Bet the Blue Jays Tuesday.

15* Giants/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -4

Despite their 2-3 record, I still believe the Eagles are the better team in this one. They are undervalued right now because of their slow start to the season that saw them open 1-3. But two of their losses came by a combined five points on the road to the Falcons and Redskins, who are two of the most improved teams in the league.

Philadelphia finally played up to its potential last week in a dominant 39-17 home win over New Orleans. The Eagles outgained the Saints by 131 total yards. Their offense had their best game of the season with 519 total yards. The ground game produced 186 yards, which will be a sign of things to come for this team. Sam Bradford also played a solid game, completing 32 of 45 passes for 333 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Giants come in overvalued due to having won three straight. They needed a last-second touchdown to beat the 49ers at home last week, who have been punching bags to everyone but the Giants over the previous four weeks. The Giants have actually been outgained in four of their five games this season, which isn’t the sign of a team that should be 3-2.

New York still has issues defensively that will be exploited by this Eagles offense. The Giants are giving up 384.8 yards per game and 5.8 per play against opposing offenses that average 350 yards per game and 5.6 per play. They have been awful against the pass, allowing 304 yards per game and 67.7% completions to rank last in the NFL in pass defense. Even Colin Kaepernick looked like Joe Montana against this Giants’ pass defense last week.

Philadelphia has had New York’s number in going 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Eagles swept the season series last year, which included a 27-0 home win that saw them outgain the Giants 448-254. The Eagles averaged 30.5 points and 437 total yards per game against the Giants last season. It doesn’t appear like this Giants defense is improved at all this season, so the big offensive numbers should continue for the Eagles in this one.

The Giants also have their top three receivers hurting right now.  Odell Beckham Jr. is questionable, Rueben Randle is questionable, and Victor Cruz still hasn’t resumed practice.  Their top cornerback in Prince Amukamara is out as well. which is a huge blow to their pass defense.  Middle linebacker Jon Beason suffered a concussion last week and is questionable to return.

Plays on favorites (PHILADELPHIA) – after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. Trailing the Giants in the division, I look for the Eagles to come out the more motivated team and to build off of their best performance of the season last week.  Take the Eagles Monday.

25* MLB Championship Series GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto -161

It's now or never for the Toronto Blue Jays, who lost the first two games in Kansas City.  They cannot afford to go down 0-3 if they want to get to the World Series.  Fortunately, they have been in this position before as they were down 0-2 to the Rangers last series and fought back to win 3-2.  They will have all the confidence in the world in Game 3, especially playing in front of their rowdy home fans.

Marcus Stroman has been their best pitcher down the stretch.  He has gone 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in six starts this season, all of which have come at the end of the season as he recently returned from injury.  Stroman is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four home starts.  He has faced the Royals once, going 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA while allowing one earned run in 6 innings of a 12-2 win.

Johnny Cueto is coming off a solid start against Houston last time out, but aside from that he's been very shaky since getting traded to the Royals.  He is 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 13 starts with the Royals this season.  He hasn't exactly enjoyed facing the Blue Jays, posting a 4.05 ERA in three career starts against them.

Cueto is 3-10 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.  Toronto is 27-8 (+13.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season.  The Blue Jays are 21-4 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Royals are 1-6 in Cueto's last seven road starts.  Toronto is 6-1 in Stroman's last seven starts.  Bet the Blue Jays Monday.

15* Patriots/Colts NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England -7.5

The Patriots are on a mission this season and are taking no prisoners with them. They have been inspired behind all of the offseason media attention surrounding ‘Deflategate’, and they’re out to prove to the rest of the NFL that they are the best team without cheating. It was the Colts who started this whole ‘Deflategate’ scandal in the AFC Championship Game last year, and you can bet that the Patriots have had this game circled all offseason.

Andrew Luck is expected to return for this game, but it’s not going to matter. The Colts will struggle to find points against a New England defense that is only giving up 19.0 points and 342.5 yards per game. A lot of those points have been scored in garbage time, too, with games already decided. New England allowed a last-second touchdown to Pittsburgh to win 28-21. It allowed 19 points in the 4th quarter at Buffalo to ‘only’ win 40-32. And it allowed 14 points after intermission to beat Jacksonville 51-17.

But the real key here is that Indianapolis is not going to be able to stop New England. The Colts are giving up 398.8 yards per game to rank 28th in the NFL in total defense. That’s really bad when you consider the five offenses they have played have been the Bills, Jets, Titans, Jaguars and Texans. Those are five of the worst offenses in the NFL.

New England ranks 1st in the NFL in total offense, scoring 37.2 points per game to go along with 423.7 yards per game. The Patriots are also 1st in the league in passing offense at 331 yards per game and 8.3 per attempt while completing 72.5 percent of their passes. The Colts rank 28th against the pass as well, giving up 286.8 yards per game, 7.8 per attempt and 64.9 percent completions.

The Patriots are 6-0 in their last six meetings with the Colts. The last four haven’t even been close as the Patriots have won all four by 21 or more points and by an average of 29.0 points per game. I see no reason this trend will end this week as the Patriots come in motivated to do it again and put the Colts in their place. It also helps that this is a big stage on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Look for Tom Brady to keep the foot on the gas for four quarters and to show no sympathy for the Colts in this one.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

20* Cubs/Mets NLCS Game 2 No-Brainer on Chicago -159

Jake Arrieta has only lost once on the road this year and it game on the road five months again.  Arrieta will extend his overall winning streak to 14 games to even this series with the Mets at 1-1.

Including the postseason, Arrieta has posted a 0.83 ERA over his last 15 starts since last losing to Philadelphia on July 25.  He has gone 12-0 with a 1.18 ERA in 16 road starts with his last road loss coming at St. Louis on May 7.  Arrieta is 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in his last four starts against the Mets as well.

Noah Syndergaard is having a solid season at 9-8 with a 3.40 ERA in 25 starts, but he's no match for Arrieta here.  He gave up three runs and 10 base runners over 5 1/3 innings for a 5.07 ERA and 1.876 WHIP in his lone career start against the Cubs back on May 12, which came opposite Arrieta.

Arrieta is 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Cubs are winning by an average of 4.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Chargers +11

The Green Bay Packers could not be more overvalued than they are right now. They are already one of the public’s favorite teams to bet, and they are delivering in a big way by going 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to set their spreads high enough, getting killed on the Packers every week. It looks to me as though they have finally said enough is enough and are giving the Chargers way too many points here. It’s time to sell high on the Packers.

It’s the perfect storm as the Chargers are 2-3 straight up and 1-4 against the spread this season. The public was killed on the Chargers on Monday Night Football in a 20-24 home loss to the Steelers. The public drove the line in that game up from -3 to -4, which is a huge move in the NFL. The public was a big loser in that game, and now they are gun shy about backing the Chargers this week.

I’ve seen enough from San Diego to know that it can hang with Green Bay. In fact, the numbers show that the Chargers are still one of the better teams in the NFL despite their 2-3 record. They have actually outgained four of their five opponents this season, and they are outgaining them by an average of 58.8 yards per game. That’s the 5th-best mark in the entire NFL as they are in the company of teams like the Patriots and Cardinals.  To compare, Green Bay is 9th in yardage differential (+46.4/game).

San Diego ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 410.0 yards per game. Philip Rivers has been brilliant, but he also just got Antonio Gates back from a 4-game suspension last week. Rivers threw for 354 yards in the loss to the Steelers, including two touchdown passes to Gates. San Diego really did outplay Pittsburgh, but an interception return for a touchdown kept the Steelers in it. This San Diego defense has held its own in giving up 351.2 yards per game this year.

Green Bay’s defense is getting a ton of accolades right now, but it has faced a very easy schedule in terms of opposing offenses. The five opposing offenses it has faced average 18.9 points and 324 yards per game on the season. None of the five rank better than 15th in total offense. The Packers have faced St. Louis (32nd), San Francisco (29th), Chicago (27th), Kansas City (18th) and Seattle (15th). Their mediocre defense will finally get exposed against San Diego’s third-ranked offense.

San Diego has played in a ton of close games this season. Indeed, four of its five games have been decided by 5 points or less. I look for this game to go right down to the wire as well. Green Bay is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play. The Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in two straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  Rivers will keep the Chargers in the game for four quarters and will have a chance to upset the Packers in the end.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

It’s not usually a wise move to go against teams coming off their bye week, but I believe that is factored into this line. The Seahawks should be double-digit favorites, and instead they are laying less than a touchdown to the Panthers. In their showdown in the playoffs last year, the Seahawks were 13.5-point favorites, so this is an adjustment of nearly 7 points from that game. I think there is clearly value with the Seahawks because of it.

Despite their 2-3 start, I still believe the Seahawks are one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL. Despite their 4-0 start, I still believe the Panthers are no better than a middle-of-the-pack team. The difference in these two starts has been scheduling. The Seahawks have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, while the Panthers have benefited from a cake schedule to this point.

Indeed, Seattle has had to go on the road to face Green Bay, Cincinnati and St. Louis, who are a combined 12-3 this season. Carolina has faced Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay, who are a combined 5-15. You’ll find out this week that the Panthers are nowhere near as good as their 4-0 record.

Despite facing such an easy schedule, Carolina has actually been outgained by 19.0 yards per game on the season. It has one of the worst offenses in the NFL, a unit that ranks 25th in total offense (322.0 yards/game) and 28th in yards per play (5.0) against opposing defenses that give up 359 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Its defense is solid but not great, giving up 339.0 yards per game this season. Again, you have to factor in the ease of the schedule in which they played.

I also still believe the Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL. They are giving up just 306.8 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opposing offenses that average 344 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Those numbers would be better, but in their first two games they played without Kam Chancellor. Since he returned three weeks ago, this defense has played a lot better.  The Seahawks rank 5th in the NFL in total defense.

Seattle is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Carolina. The three road wins for the Seahawks during this stretch have been close, but the two home wins have not. Seattle won 31-17 at home in the playoffs last year and 31-14 in its previous home meeting with Carolina. All the Seahawks have to do to cover this spread is win by more than a touchdown, and I see no way that won’t be the case.

Normally this would be a revenge spot for the Panthers, and while it still is, that should be a non-factor. Seattle needs this win more after a 2-3 start, while Carolina can afford a loss after its 4-0 start. I actually look for the Seahawks to be the more motivated team as a result.  And I like their chances to get a win considering they are 28-2 in all home games over the past four seasons.

The Seahawks are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 home games. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) – off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* SDSU/SJSU Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State -3

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They went just 3-9 last year and had all kinds of bad fortune in close games and the turnover department.  But they returned 16 starters this year and were determined to turn it around.  After a slow start, this team is now playing up to its potential, but it's still being undervalued week after week.

They beat Fresno State 49-23 and outgained the Bulldogs by 296 total yards.  Then they went to Auburn the next week and only lost 21-35 and actually outgained the Tigers by 64 yards in a game they had every chance to win.  Playing a tough SEC team like Auburn on the road like that down to the wire really shows that this team is capable of.  Then the Spartans won 33-27 (OT) at UNLV last week while outgaining the Rebels by 41 yards.  They blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead, but showed a lot of grit down the stretch when they could have folded.  Now they have a ton of confidence heading into this week.

San Diego State has not impressed me at all this year.  It is 3-3 on the season, which is identical to San Jose State, but its three wins have come against Hawaii, Fresno State and South Dakota.  Those are three of the worst teams in the country.  Plus, they only beat Fresno State 21-7 at home, while San Jose State beat Fresno State 49-23 at home, giving them a common opponent to gauge off of.

The Aztecs have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They are only putting up 23.5 points, 331 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing defenses that give up 31.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  So it's not like they've faced a gauntlet of defenses.  They get awful quarterback play week in and week out, averaging just 46.4 percent completions and 151 passing yards per game.

San Jose State has a much better offense as it is putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game.  Its defense has been respectable, too, giving up 344.7 yards per game this season.  So it is outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.  San Diego State is only outgaining foes by 10 yards per game.  Plus, San Jose State has played the slightly tougher schedule with four road games already, including trips to Air Force, Oregon State and Auburn.

San Diego State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off a road win over a conference opponent.  The Aztecs are 14-32 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS since since 1992.  San Jose State is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 games as a favorite.  Bet San Jose State Saturday night.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +6

The Arizona State Sun Devils have really played up to their potential the last two weeks following their ugly 14-42 loss to USC.  But they committed four turnovers against the Trojans in that game and were only outgained by one yard, so it was much closer than the final score would indicate.

Arizona State went on the road and beat UCLA 38-23 as 13-point underdogs the next week, outgaining the Bruins by 123 yards in the process.  They followed that up with a 48-23 home win over Colorado last week.  The offense is now hitting on all cylinders, and the defense has taken some great strides since that USC loss.

The Sun Devils will be the more motivated team in this one as they feel like they are still very much alive in the Pac-12 Title race.  To win the South, they are going to probably need to beat Utah this week.  Utah is coming off a huge win 30-24 win over California last week to improve to 5-0.  ESPN's College Gameday was at that game, and there's no way the atmosphere is going to be as good a week later without it.  This is actually a letdown spot for the Utes following such a big win.

Utah may be the most overrated team in the country.  Despite being 5-0, it is only outgaining teams by an average of 9.8 yards per game this season, which is the sign of a .500 team.  Utah was outgained by 18 yards at home in a win over Michigan, by 46 yards at home in a win over Utah State, and by 32 yards at home in the win over California.  The Bears had six turnovers in that game, yet the Utes could only manage a 30-24 win.  They only outgained an awful Fresno State team by 15 yards in a road win as well.

The key to this game for me is Arizona State's ability to stop the run against a power running team in Utah.  Arizona State has been excellent against the run, giving up just 139 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry against opposing offenses that average 219 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  So, the Sun Devils are limiting opposing offenses to 80 rushing yards per game and 1.5 per carry less than their season averages.  Utah averages 217 rushing yards per game and just 185 passing, so it clearly depends almost exclusively on the run to move the football.

Arizona State has had Utah's number to say the least.  The Sun Devils are 11-0 in their last 11 meetings with the Utes with their last loss coming all the way back in 1976.  They have won four straight trips to Salt Lake City by an average of 17 points per game.  Kyle Whittingham is 7-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  This team is much better in the role of spoiler as an underdog, but that's not the case now as the Utes are way overvalued due to their No. 4 national ranking.  Roll with Arizona State Saturday.

15* USC/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +5

The betting public is all over Notre Dame in the wake of the Steve Sarkisian firing, driving this line up from -2 to -7 and back down to -5. I believe the firing is actually going to work in favor of the Trojans, who simply needed a change. Look back to two years ago when Ed Orgeron took over for a fired Lane Kiffin. The Trojans went 7-2 over their final nine games that year when they were left for dead.

Orgeron found out that he would not be retained as the head coach the next year, so he quit at the end of the regular season. That left offensive coordinator Clay Helton to coach the bowl game, and the players responded well. They crushed Fresno State 45-20 as 6-point favorites under the guidance of Helton. That’s important because Helton has been named the interim head coach now, and several of these players were with him in 2013. I expect them to respond well again.

I would still argue that USC is one of the most talented teams in the country despite some poor results in home losses to Stanford and Washington. But you don’t have to look too deep to find the potential of this team. They opened the season with blowout home wins over Arkansas State (55-6) and Idaho (59-9), and they went on the road and crushed a very good Arizona State team 42-14. That’s the same Sun Devils squad that won 38-23 at UCLA.

The numbers also show that the Trojans are an elite team still. They are putting up 39.8 points and 494.8 yards per game on offense, and their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 17.4 points and 387.5 yards per game. They have the luxury of having arguably the best quarterback in the country on their side in senior Cody Kessler. He has completed 69.5 percent of his passes for 1,453 yards with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

Kessler had a monster game against this Notre Dame team last year. He completed 32 of 40 passes for 372 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions to lead the Trojans to a 49-14 victory. While that game was at home, the Trojans have had no trouble winning in South Bend, either. They have actually won five of their last six visits to Notre Dame with their only loss coming by a final of 10-14 in 2013.

Notre Dame comes in overvalued due to going 5-1 against the spread in all games this season.  This is a public team as it is, and the public isn't going to stop backing the Fighting Irish after the start they have gotten off to.  But they have played a very easy schedule to this point with Texas, Virginia, Georgia Tech, UMass and Navy resulting in their five wins, and their lone loss coming at Clemson in their toughest game of the season.  USC will be the best team that they have faced yet.

USC is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 10 points or more. It is coming back to win by an average of 16.7 points per game in this spot. The Trojans are also 7-0 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last three years. They are coming back to win by 21.7 points per game in this spot. And to cap it off, USC is 9-0 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, coming back to win by 21.6 points per game.  These three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Trojans.  Also, the Trojans will have had extra time to rest and prepare after playing last Thursday.  Take USC Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on TCU -20.5

The TCU Horned Frogs will make easy work of the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  Many are calling this a letdown spot for the Horned Frogs off their comeback 52-45 victory over Kansas State last week, but I'm not buying it.  TCU is on a mission to win the Big 12 this season and will not take Iowa State lightly.

We saw what happened in what was a letdown spot following a 55-52 win at Texas Tech three weeks ago.  TCU came back the next week and crushed Texas 50-7 at home in a lopsided affair.  I look for a similar result this week after that Kansas State win, which should have been a bigger blowout because the Horned Frogs outgained the Wildcats by 158 yards.

In fact, the Horned Frogs have outgained all six of their opponents by at least 108 yards during their 6-0 start.  They outgained Texas by 291, Texas Tech by 143, SMU by 212 and Stephen F. Austin by 460.  The Horned Frogs are outgaining the opposition by an average of 228.7 yards per game this season.  That's the sign of an elite team and one that's a national title contender.

TCU is even better on offense this season than it was last year, if that's even possible.  it is putting up 51.0 points and 615.5 yards per game behind the play of Heisman trophy candidate Trevone Boykin.  The defense hasn't been as bad as most think as the Horned Frogs are only giving up 5.1 yards per play against opponents who average 5.5 per play.

Iowa State's defense has no shot at stopping TCU, and thus no chance of covering.  The Cyclones played the best team that they have faced this season last week in Texas Tech, and they were annihilated.  They gave up a ridiculous 776 total yards in a 66-31 road loss to the Red Raiders.  TCU is a similar team to Texas Tech, but better.

Last year, TCU embarrassed Iowa State 55-3.  This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs outgained the Cyclones 722-236, or by 484 total yards.  It's not going to take another 52-point blowout to cover this spread as the Horned Frogs only need to win by 21.  That shouldn't be a problem because their offense is going to score at will.

Iowa State is 0-7 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game over the past three seasons. It is coming back to lose by an average of 28.8 points per game in this spot.  The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 32.9 points per game in this spot.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* Saturday MLB Championship Series ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Blue Jays -150

The Toronto Blue Jays will win Game 2 after getting shut out in Game 1 yesterday.  I believe they are the better team in this series and they certainly have the edge on the mound tonight, not to mention at the plate.

David Price is 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 33 starts this season.  He's done his best work on the road, going 11-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 16 road starts.  Price is also 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.908 WHIP in five career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals' starting staff is their weakness.  Yordano Ventura is considered their ace, which is bad news when you consider he sports a 4.23 ERA and 1.315 WHIP over 30 starts this season.  Ventura allowed six earned runs in seven innings against Houston last series, so he's not handling the pressure of the postseason well.  He gave up five earned runs in seven innings in his only start against Toronto this season.

The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Price's last five road starts and 5-1 in his last six starts overall.  This is why they traded for him at the deadline, to win big games like this one tonight.  I expect he'll deliver in a big way.  Take the Blue Jays in Game 2 Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +7

The betting public has steamed Michigan from a 3-point favorite all the way up to an 8.5-point favorite, and it's now back down to 7. They love backing this Michigan team because they have put together three straight shutouts and covers. The public has bet this line up to the point where the only choice is to take the value with the Spartans if you are going to play this game at all.

It’s the perfect storm. Michigan State is 6-0 despite going 0-6 against the spread this season. The betting public has lost a lot of money backing the Spartans, while I have made hay fading them. I went against them with success against Air Force, Central Michigan and Purdue. But I know when to shift gears when the price is right, and there’s no question that the price couldn’t be any better on the Spartans now in the role of underdogs.

The Spartans have actually held double-digit leads in all six of their games this season.  But they have allowed several backdoor covers to their opponents when they were covering late.  But because they have taken their foot off the gas in the second half of games, they have gone 0-6 against the spread this season.  It will be interesting to see what this team can do this week when it goes full-throttle for four quarters.

Michigan State will be out to make a statement in this game as it continues to slide in the rankings. The Spartans were ranked as high as No. 2 after their win over Oregon, but they have slid all the way down to No. 7 now despite continuing to win. They need a high-profile win over a team like the Wolverines to boost their playoff résumé, and this is their chance to get it. I look for them to take full advantage.

To say this has been a one-sided series in recent years would be a massive understatement. Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Michigan. The last two haven’t even been close. The Spartans won 29-6 at home as 4-point favorites in 2013 while outgaining the Wolverines 394-168. They won in an even bigger blowout 35-11 at home last year, outgaining the Wolverines 446-186.

While Michigan does have the better defense, its numbers are skewed a bit because it has faced mostly awful offenses. The Wolverines’ opponents only average 26.4 points, 368 yards per game and 5.2 per play this season. That’s a very soft slate. Michigan State’s opponents average 30.7 points, 424 yards per game and 5.9 per play. The Spartans have faced the much more difficult schedule in terms of opposing offenses.

I do give a slight edge to the Michigan defense, though, but there’s no denying that Michigan State has the better offense. The Spartans are putting up 31.3 points per game this season and still haven’t played up to their capability because of injuries along the offensive line, but they are getting healthier by the week and should have almost everyone back. Connor Cook has thrown for 1,334 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, and I trust him a lot more in a big game than Jake Rudock.

Michigan hasn't faced a passing offense nearly as good as the one it will be up against Saturday.  Almost every team Michigan has gone up against has been primarily a running team.  Utah is 97th in passing offense, Oregon State is 116th , UNLV is 107th, BYU is 26th, Maryland is 109th and Northwestern is 115th.  While that 31-0 win over BYU looks nice, the fact of the matter is that Michigan caught the Cougars in a great spot.  They had just lost to UCLA 23-24 the previous week and were out of gas due to a brutal early schedule.

Michigan’s offensive numbers are swayed a bit due to defensive touchdowns. Yet the Wolverines are still only scoring 29.5 points per game this season. I do not trust Rudock in this big game situation. He cost them in their biggest game thus far against Utah with 3 interceptions, and I expect him to cost them in this one too. Rudock has thrown five touchdowns against six interceptions this season and is holding this offense back.

Michigan State has actually played its best football on the road in recent years. The Spartans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in road games off two straight wins over conference opponents over the last three seasons.  With the Spartans being 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings, these three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing them.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -4

The Oklahoma Sooners are still very much alive for the Big 12 title after their slip-up last week against the Texas Longhorns.  I believe that loss will have them re-focused this week and ready to get back on track against a Kansas State team that is reeling after blowing a late lead to TCU last week.

Indeed, I think Kansas State is in the much worst spot mentally in this one.  They have opened 0-2 in Big 12 play with a 2-point loss to Oklahoma State and a 7-point loss to TCU.  But both of those games were bigger blowouts than the final scores showed.  Kansas State was outgained by 139 yards by Oklahoma State and by 158 yards against TCU.

In a 39-33 overtime win against Louisiana Tech at home, the Wildcats were also outgained by 96 yards.  The Wildcats are now actually getting outgained by an average of 27.6 yards per game on the season.  They aren't as good as they have been in year's past, and this Oklahoma team is the best that Bob Stoops has had in a few years.  I look for that to play out in this game Saturday with the Sooners easily able to cover as small favorites.

There's no question that this is the best offense Stoops has had in a while.  Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield has made a huge different.  He is leading the Sooners to an average of 37.0 points, 473.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play against opposing defenses that allow 27.3 points, 423 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

Oklahoma has also been better defensively this season than it is getting credit for.  The Sooners are holding the opposition to 22.6 points, 364.0 yards per game and 4.6 per play.  That's impressive when you consider that those opponents average 32.1 points, 442 yards per game and 5.7 per play against everyone else.

Oklahoam wants revenge from a 31-30 home loss to Kansas State last year.  The Sooners missed a chip shot field goal at the end of the game that would have won it.  They outgained the Wildcats 533-385 for the game, or by 148 total yards.  The road team has actually gone 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, so home-field advantage has meant nothing.  Oklahoma won 41-31 at Kansas State in 2013 and 58-17 at Kansas State in 2011.

In fact, Oklahoma is 5-0 in its last five trips to Manhattan with all five victories coming by 10 points or more.  The Sooners have won by an average of 18.8 points per game in their last five road meetings with the Wildcats.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Sooners are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. loss.  In fact, the Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since 1999, a span of 34 straight wins following a loss.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10.5

The Ole Miss Rebels should be much heavier favorites Saturday against the Memphis Tigers.  This is essentially like a college team playing a pro team in terms of talent level.  I look for that to be on display Saturday as the Rebels run away with this one.

This is the best team that Ole Miss has had since Hugh Freeze took over.  They are still national title contenders even with their fluky loss at Florida where they committed four turnovers and gave the game away.  They still have their road win at Alabama, and if they win out they will for sure be going to the four-team playoff.  That's why they won't be overlooking Memphis this week.

That's especially the case after they left Memphis hang around for three quarters last year.  They only led 7-3 at the end of three quarters before scoring 17 in the fourth for a 24-3 victory.  But that game was a much bigger blowout.  Ole Miss outgained Memphis 426-104 for the game, or by 322 total yards.  They held stud Memphis QB Paxton Lynch to just 13 of 81 passing for 81 yards with an interception.

Ole Miss once again has one of the best defenses in the country in 2015.  It is giving up 19.7 points, 337.5 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  While Memphis has an offense that is just as good as last year, it is going to find just gaining first downs against this Ole Miss defense difficult.  The Tigers haven't even seen a defense near the caliber of this one this season.

Indeed, Memphis has played one of the softest slates of defenses in the country.  The five opponents they've play have averaged giving up 40.6 points and 473 yards per game to all opponents this season.  They have played Missouri State, Kansas, Bowling Green, Cincinnati and South Florida.  The best defense they have played was South Florida, which held them to just 24 points last time out.  Memphis won't get to 20 against Ole Miss, which is going to make it impossible to stay within this 10.5-point spread.

The Rebels also have the best offense they have had in the Freeze era in 2015.  They are putting up 46.8 points and 527.8 yards per game while averaging 7.4 yards per play behind the talented Chad Kelly at quarterback.  Memphis has an awful defense, giving up 26.8 points and 438.4 yards per game with 5.7 per play.  Kelly and company will have a field day against this Memphis defense.  The sledding was a little tougher for Ole Miss against Memphis' defense last year, but that was a talented stop unit.  The Tigers only have three starters back on defense this year, and it's a glaring weakness.

Ole Miss is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a game where it committed three or more turnovers over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 20.3 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. awful passing defense that allow 275 or more yards per game.  The Rebels are 6-0 in their last six meetings with the Tigers with the last three wins all coming by 17 points or more.  The Rebels are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boise State -9.5

The Boise State Broncos are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. Normally I would look to fade these teams because they are usually overvalued, but I just don’t believe that’s the case with the Broncos in this game. They should be more than single-digit favorites over the Utah State Aggies with the way they are playing right now, even though this game is on the road.

Not only are the Broncos winning, they are dominating. They have outscored their last four opponents 202-24 while covering four straight by a combined 108 points. They even beat two solid teams on the road in Colorado State (41-10) and Virginia (56-14) that shows that their game travels well. They also shut out Hawaii (55-0) and Idaho State (52-0) at home during this stretch.

The fortune of the Broncos has turned ever since Brett Rypien, the son of former NFL QB Mark Rypien, was inserted at quarterback. The freshman has been lighting it up, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,057 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. I was worried about this team early because of their problems at QB, but that’s no longer an issue with Rypien under center.

Boise State now has an explosive offense to go with a defense that is just dominating. The Broncos returned eight starters on defense this season and were going to be good, but they have been even better than expected. They are only allowing 12.0 points and 259.5 yards per game this season. They are also allowing just 3.8 yards per play. They faced a good Colorado State offense last week, and held the Rams to just 256 yards while forcing three turnovers.

Utah State is overvalued after two straight wins and covers in my book. It won 33-18 at home against Colorado State as 5.5-point favorites, which gives these teams a common opponent. Again, Boise State beat Colorado State 41-10 on the road and outgained the Rams by 341 yards. Utah State only outgained the Rams by 74 yards at home. The Aggies beat an awful Fresno State team 56-14 last week, which is keeping this spread smaller than it should be.

Boise State is 12-0 in its last 12 meetings with Utah State with the last 10 wins coming by an average of 31 points per game. Each of the last 10 wins have come by 11 points or more as well, giving us a perfect 10-0 system since 2000 backing Boise State. The Broncos beat the Aggies 50-19 as only 10-point home favorites last year. They outgained Utah State 498-268, or by 230 total yards. A similar beat down can be expected in the rematch this year.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) – off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 42-11 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 10-1-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings at Utah State.  Bet Boise State Friday.

15* Blue Jays/Royals ALCS Game 1 No-Brainer on Toronto -114

The Toronto Blue Jays have all the momentum right now after becoming just the 3rd team to come back from an 0-2 deficit to win the Division Series after losing the first two games at home.  I believe the Blue Jays are the best team left in the postseason, and they'll go on the road and take Game 1 of this series with Kansas City.

Marco Estrada is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.06 ERA in his last five starts.  He allowed only one earned run in 6 1/3 innings to get the win in a 5-1 victory over Texas in his first postseason start on October 11.

Edinson Volquez is a quality starter who is 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.319 WHIP in 34 starts this season, but that gives the edge to the Blue Jays on the mound tonight.

Plus, Estrada is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City, while Volquez is 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in six career starts against Toronto.  As you can see, Volquez has never beaten the Blue Jays.  Take the Blue Jays Friday.

20* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta -3

The hamstring injury to Julio Jones is concerning, but he was able to play through it last week against Washington and get a key touchdown late in that game. While Jones didn’t practice on Tuesday, head coach Dan Quinn said he expects him to play even though he’s listed as questionable. Even if for whatever reason he doesn’t go, I still believe the Falcons have enough left to put away one of the worst teams in the NFL in the New Orleans Saints.

Even with a hobbled Jones, the Falcons really outplayed a good Washington team last week and shouldn’t have needed overtime to beat the Redskins. They outgained them 418-270 for the game, or by 148 total yards. The problem was that the Falcons had to settle for too many field goals, and the usually reliable Matt Bryant missed two of them. Matt Ryan also uncharacteristically threw two interceptions, but the Falcons still found a way to win in overtime.

Atlanta is the real deal this season. A lot of people are going to point to them erasing four fourth quarter deficits to win in four of their five games, but that is just business as usual for Matt Ryan. He leads all quarterbacks in game-winning drives since he came into the league in 2008. He has the best offensive coordinator he has ever had in Atlanta in Kyle Shanahan, and these two are on fire right now.

The Falcons are putting up 32.4 points and 406.2 yards per game this season to rank 4th in the league in total offense. While Ryan is on fire, it's the new-found running game that has made this offense so tough to tame.  The Falcons are averaging 126 rushing yards per game against opponents that only allow 97 yards per game on the ground.

Devonte Freeman has scored seven touchdowns in the last three games as the Falcons have rushed for an average of 156.3 yards per game during this stretch.  Their defense played its best game of the season against the Redskins, limiting them to just 270 total yards. This defense is only going to get better as the season goes on under the guidance of Quinn.

The Saints are a mess and I question their motivation the rest of the way after a 1-4 start. Drew Brees clearly isn’t his old self as he continues to play through injury. He was a big part of the four turnovers the Saints committed in their ugly 17-39 road loss to Philadelphia last week. He constantly has to try and bring his team back from deficits because the Saints have an awful defense, and he’s been unable to do it.

Ryan and company should have their way with a New Orleans defense that is giving up 28.6 points and 409.0 yards per game to rank last in the NFL in total defense. Ryan certainly played well against this defense last season in leading the Falcons to a 2-0 season sweep of the Saints. The Falcons racked up 568 yards in a 37-34 home win, and 403 yards in a 30-14 road win.

These teams have a couple common opponents to gauge off of. Atlanta beat Philadelphia 26-24 at home and Dallas 39-28 on the road. New Orleans lost to Philadelphia 17-39 on the road and needed overtime to beat Dallas 26-20 at home.  Brandon Weeden was the starting quarterback for Dallas in both of those games.

The Saints simply do not have the same kind of home-field advantage they used to. They are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Ryan loves the Thursday night stage as the Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five. The Saints are 27-50 ATS in their last 77 home games vs. division opponents.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

15* Auburn/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -2

The Auburn Tigers were a popular preseason pick to win the SEC West. I wasn’t one of them on that bandwagon as I believed Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M were the four best teams in the division. So far, I’ve been proven right. But at the same time, I realize when it’s time to jump on a team once the value is right.

Auburn would probably win the SEC East if it was in that division even with its struggles thus far in 2015. That’s because the East is so weak, and Kentucky isn’t even a top three team in the division. I believe Tennessee, Georgia and Florida are all much better than the Wildcats, and I believe Auburn would beat all three of those teams. So, yes, I believe that Auburn will win this game over Kentucky as well.

Auburn has played the much more difficult schedule this season, already having to face the likes of Louisville, LSU and Mississippi State. Kentucky is overvalued due to its 4-1 record against an extremely easy schedule. The Wildcats have beaten the likes of Missouri, South Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette. They lost to the best team they’ve played in Florida.

Kentucky has been extremely fortunate in close games this year as all five of its games have been decided by 7 points or less. That means the Wildcats could easily be 1-4 instead of 4-1. But the most concerning thing about the Wildcats is that they have played awful against two non-conference opponents that they were expected to roll.

Indeed, they needed overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky 34-27 last time out as 27.5-point favorites. They only outgained Eastern Kentucky by 21 yards in that game. They also only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 40-33 at home as 17-point favorites in the opener. They were actually outgained by 44 yards by the Rajin’ Cajuns. The Wildcats are getting outgained 365.6 to 368.4 on the season, which isn’t the sign of a 4-1 team.

Auburn has simply owned Kentucky through the years. It is 8-0 in its last eight visits to Lexington with its last loss there coming all the way back in 1966. The Wildcats are 1-10 against SEC West opponents since 2010.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) – off a home win, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Auburn Thursday.

20* Rangers/Blue Jays ALDS Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -173

The Toronto Blue Jays have fought their way back into this series after losing the first two games at home.  They outscored the Rangers 13-5 in winning Game 3 and 4 by four runs each.  That showed a lot of grit, and now I look for them to make it up to their home fans by capitalizing on this momentum and winning Game 5.

Marcus Stroman has been dynamite down the stretch for Toronto.  He has gone 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in five starts since returning from injury.  He pitched well in Game 2, giving up three earned runs and seven base runners in seven innings, but got the no-decision in a 6-4 loss in extras.  Look for Stroman to shut down the Rangers this time around.

Cole Hamels hasn't exactly finished the season the way you'd want, and he's 13-8 with a 3.61 ERA on the season, including 7-6 with a 3.90 ERA in 17 road starts.  He's not the shutdown ace he used to be for the Phillies in the National League.  Hamels sports a 4.09 ERA over his last three starts as well.

Stroman is now 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in two career starts against Texas, giving up just three earned runs and 11 base runners in 14 innings.  Hamels has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Toronto is 26-8 (+12.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season.  It is winning by an average of 2.2 runs per game in this spot (6.1 to 3.9).  That's why I'm not worried at all laying this much juice with Toronto.  Bet the Blue Jays Wednesday.

20* Ark State/South Alabama Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas State -4.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are arguably the best team in the Sun Belt Conference this year. But because they have opened just 2-3, they are flying a little under the radar right now. When you look at the losses, it’s easy to see why this team has already suffered three defeats.

The three losses have come at USC, vs Missouri, and at Toledo. These are three teams who have been ranked in the Top 25 at various points in the season. The Red Wolves nearly upset Missouri in a 20-27 home loss in Week 2. Star QB Fredi Knighten suffered a groin injury in that game, and he has missed each of the team’s three games since. But Knighten is expected to start against South Alabama on Tuesday as he is finally recovered from that injury.

Arkansas State had little trouble with Idaho last week even in the absence of Knighten. It led the Vandals 49-21 early in the 4th quarter before allowing a couple of garbage touchdowns late to make the final score 49-35. I believe that final being closer than the game really was also has the Red Wolves undervalued here.

Without Knighten, the Red Wolves have really gotten their ground game going. They rushed for 344 yards in a 70-7 win over Missouri State, and 333 yards in that win over Idaho last week. This ground attack is going to find plenty of holes against a South Alabama defense that is giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry against teams that average 174 yards per game and 4.1 per carry. This is one of the worst rush defenses in the country.

South Alabama is overvalued due to its 3-2 start to the season. Remember, this is a team that returned the fewest starters (5) in the conference, and it will be up against an Arkansas State team that returned 15 starters from last year. The Jaguars did have a good win at San Diego State (34-27) in Week 3, but their other two wins have come against lowly Gardner Webb and Troy teams.

More telling was their blowout losses to the two best teams they have played this year. They lost to Nebraska 9-48 on the road and were outgained by 229 yards. Nebraska is 2-4 this season. They also lost to NC State 13-63 at home and were outgained by 328 yards. NC State has opened 0-2 in ACC play with losses to Louisville and Virginia Tech.

Arkansas State is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against South Alabama over the last three years. The Red Wolves dominated the Jaguars 45-10 at home last year as 11-point favorites, outgaining them 400-201 for the game. Knighten threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 80 yards and a score to lead the way. Again, he’s expected to be healthy and ready to play in this game, and I expect the Red Wolves to improve to 4-0 against the Jaguars.

The Red Wolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas State is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. South Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. South Alabama is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.

15* Cards/Cubs Game 4 No-Brainer on Chicago -122

We're getting the Chicago Cubs at an awesome price today as they try to close out their first series at Wrigley ever.  It's going to be another raucous crowd in Chicago today and I look for more offensive fireworks from the Cubs in this one.

I like the move by manager Joe Maddon to stick to his guns and start Jason Hammel in this one.  Hammel has always been a better starter at home than on the road, so it was the right move.  He has gone 10-7 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 31 starts this season.

Give John Lackey a ton of credit for shutting down the Cubs in Game 1.  But just like Hammel, he's a much better start at home than on the road.  Indeed, Lackey is 4-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 16 road starts this year.  The Cardinals are 5-15 in Lackey's last 20 road starts.  Even he will be phased by the crowd noise in Chicago today.

Lackey is 1-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-5 in their last five games vs. a right-handed starter.  St. Louis is 1-6 in Lackey's last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cubs are 8-3 in Hammel's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Cubs Tuesday.

20* Steelers/Chargers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +4

The betting public is backing the Chargers pretty hard in this Monday Night Football game, driving the line up from -3 to -3.5 and -4 in some places.  That's a pretty big move in the NFL for the books to come off the key number of 3, and I believe there is plenty of value in backing the Steelers now.

The public doesn't trust Michael Vick, which is the biggest reason for this move, but I do now.  Vick was thrust into the starting role on a short week against Baltimore last week since it was a Thursday game.  The Steelers were still in control for most of the game until getting too conservative late and letting it slip away in a 20-23 loss.

But now Vick will have had extra time to prepare for the Chargers having played last Thursday.  The playbook will expand exponentially, and I look for offensive coordinator Todd Haley to open it up a lot more this week.  Plus, Vick can rely on the 2-headed monster at RB, along with plenty of talent on the outside led by Antonio Brown.

The Steelers will be up against a soft San Diego defense that has allowed at least 24 points in all four games this season.  The Chargers are giving up 27.5 points per game on the year and nearly lost to the Browns last week, needing a last-second FG to win 30-27 at home.  They allowed 432 total yards to Cleveland.

San Diego is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons.  Pittsburgh is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Steelers are certainly improved defensively in giving up just 18.7 PPG this year.  Pittsburgh is 12-3 straight up in its last 15 meetings with San Diego.  The Chargers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC foes.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

25* MLB Division Series GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Blue Jays -128

Of the last 29 teams who started 0-2 after losing the first two games of the Division series at home, 18 of them were swept.  Only 2 of them came back to win the series.  I believe the Blue Jays are going to be the 3rd team to do so.  The first step was winning Game 3, and after a 5-1 victory yesterday, they are going to be oozing with confidence in Game 4.

R.A. Dickey actually learned the knuckleball in Texas, so it's fitting that he's going to make his first postseason start against the Rangers tonight.  Dickey went 11-11 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 33 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP in his last three.

Derek Holland is 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in 10 starts this season, 3-2 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.319 WHIP in seven home starts, and 1-1 with an 8.05 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in his last three starts.  Holland is also 3-2 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto.  He gave up 3 homers and 4 earned runs in his last start against the Blue Jays on August 25 at home.

The Blue Jays are 11-3 in Dickey's last 14 starts, and 5-0 in Dickey's last 5 starts vs. AL West opponents.  Toronto is 17-4 in its last 21 games when its opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 9-2 in its last 11 trips to Texas.  Bet the Blue Jays Monday.

15* 49ers/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +7

The San Francisco 49ers could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now. They have barely even come close to covering the spread in each of their last three games while getting outscored a combined 28-107 by the Steelers, Cardinals and Packers. But those are three of the best teams in the NFL, and now the 49ers get to take a step down in competition. The good news is that the betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so we’re certainly getting a lot of value here with this 7-point spread.

The opposite is true for the Giants. The betting public sees two impressive double-digits wins over the Redskins (32-21) at home and the Bills (24-10) on the road and thinks that the Giants are all of a sudden juggernauts. As a result, oddsmakers have to set this spread higher than it should be. While I do believe the Giants are a slightly better team than the 49ers, they shouldn’t be favored by 4 points on a neutral field, which is what this line is suggesting they would be.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Giants aren’t nearly as good of a team as this line would indicate. They actually rank 24th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 50.2 yards per game on the season. They are 26th in the league in total defense at 386.0 yards per game and 22nd in total offense at 335.8 yards per game. Those aren’t the kind of numbers that warrant being this big of a favorite.

One of the reasons the Giants are overvalued here is because they are already +6 in turnover differential on the season. One of the reasons the 49ers are undervalued is because they are -5 in turnover differential thus far. Turnovers have a way of evening themselves out over the course of the season, too.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) – who are getting outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 111-57 (66.1%) ATS since 1983. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* Blue Jays/Rangers ALDS Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto -140

The Toronto Blue Jays can come back and win this series even though they lost the first two games because that's simply the kind of firepower they possess.  It starts with a win in Game 3 tonight in Texas.

The Blue Jays clearly have the edge on the mound tonight behind Marco Estrada, who is 12-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 28 starts.  Estrada is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two career starts against Texas as well.

He'll be opposed by Texas' worst starter in Martin Perez, who is 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 14 starts.  The Blue Jays are 11-2 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 5-0 in Estrada's last five Sunday starts.  Bet the Blue Jays Sunday.

25* NFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Redskins +7.5

The Washington Redskins may be the most underrated team in the NFL this season. They could easily be 4-0 with the numbers they have put up to this point. When you look at the numbers alone, I would argue that the Redskins are actually the better team in this matchup. I was on them last week against the Eagles, and I’m on them again this week catching just over a touchdown to the Falcons.

Washington has outgained each of its first four opponents. It outgained Miami by 93 yards, St. Louis by 160 yards, New York by 30 yards, and Philadelphia by 97 yards. It is outgaining teams by an average of 95.0 yards per game, which is the second-best mark in the NFL behind the Arizona Cardinals. That’s the sign of a very good team and one that should not be catching more than a touchdown this week.

The Redskins rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 383.0 yards per game. They have a two-headed monster at running back in Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, and Kirk Cousins is playing the best football of his career. But the biggest improvement on this team has come on defense, where the Redskins rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 288.0 yards per game.

Despite being 4-0 on the season, the Falcons only rank 14th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 12.8 yards per game. While they clearly have one of the league’s best offenses, their defense is not as improved as everyone makes it out to be. The Falcons are giving up 390.5 yards per game to rank 28th in the NFL in total defense. They are also giving up 6.2 yards per play against opposing offenses who only average 5.4 yards per play.

The Falcons are overvalued right now because everything went right in their 48-21 win over the Texans last week, covering the spread by more than 20 points.  But you have to remember that Atlanta had to come from behind in each of its first three games to beat the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants.

One huge factor here that's getting overlooked is new Atlanta offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan.  He was the offensive coordinator at Washington last year.  That will give the Redskins a huge advantage because they know his playbook.  The Redskins simply aren't getting the respect they deserve in this game.

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games following a blowout win by 21 or more points. It is losing in this spot by an average of 11.8 points per game. The Falcons are 3-20 ATS in their last 23 home games following a home win. Atlanta is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three or more consecutive ATS wins. The Falcons are simply overvalued right now due to their 4-0 ATS start.  Bet the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Seattle +3

The Seattle Seahawks simply need this game more than the Bengals after their 2-2 start. This is a team that started 4-4 last year and went on to win each of their final eight games of the season. That’s why I’m not too concerned about the slow start because their losses have come against two quality teams on the road in the Rams and Packers. I still believe this is arguably the best team in football, and probably the best team in the NFC for sure, if it’s not the Packers.

Having Kam Chancellor back has made this Seattle defense absolutely dominant the last two weeks. They haven’t given up a defensive touchdown in either of their past two games as the only TD the Lions scored last week came on a fumble by Russell Wilson. They held the Bears to just 146 total yards and the Lions to 256 yards, or an average of 201 yards per game the past two weeks.

Give Cincinnati credit for its 4-0 start, but this is not an elite team. Wins over the Raiders, Chargers, Ravens and Chiefs aren’t great as those teams are a combined 6-10. This will be by far the best team that the Bengals have faced yet in the Seahawks. Andy Dalton has played well up to this point against those other defenses, but he’s in for a rude awakening against the best defense in the NFL this week.

For this to be a 3-point spread, oddsmakers are indicating that Cincinnati is an equal to Seattle. They are saying that the line would be a pick ’em on a neutral field. Well, I strongly believe the Seahawks are the better team and should be favored by at least 3 points on a neutral field, which means this line should be no more than a Pick 'Em. Rarely will you get the opportunity to back them as an underdog, and we’ll take advantage of that this week.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. The Seahawks are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS loss. Seattle is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +6

The Philadelphia Eagles have the most ruthless fans in the NFL. They are already disappointed with their team this season, and if things just go slightly wrong to start this game, the boo birds will be out early and often. That was the case in their lone home game this season, a 10-20 loss to the Cowboys that was their worst performance of the year.

The Eagles really don’t have a home-field advantage as they have actually played better on the road over the past few years, so they are constantly overvalued at home. Indeed, the Eagles are 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 home games overall. We are getting pretty good value here in backing the Saints as 6-point underdogs as we’re getting a few key numbers in there to boot.

I’m not so sure that the Saints aren’t the better team, either. Despite being 1-3 on the season, the Saints are actually outgaining opponents by 5.7 yards per game this year. They are at least an average team in this league, and they are going to be coming in with confidence after the resilience they showed in taking down the Cowboys last week. They also got C.J. Spiller finally involved in the offense, and having him as a weapon for Drew Brees going forward will make this unit more explosive.

The Saints are still 6th in the NFL in total offense at 387.2 yards per game, and that’s even with Brees missing the Carolina game. But look for big-time improvement from this defense going forward. There are several rookies who have already stepped up and played big roles for this defense. But the Saints also just got back two of their best veterans in safety Jairus Byrd and corner Keenan Lewis last week. Both played on a limited bases, but both should be able to play more snaps this week.

Without question, Philadelphia is one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Eagles are not explosive at all on offense, and the losses along the offensive line are taking their toll. The Eagles rank 29th in the NFL in total offense at 294.0 yards per game, and 21st in total defense at 373.5 yards per game. They are 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 79.5 yards per game. That’s the sign of a very bad team and one that should not be favored this heavily at home against the Saints.

The Eagles are only averaging 70 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. That’s putting too much pressure on Sam Bradford, who hasn’t been able to deliver. The Eagles only managed 226 total yards and committed three turnovers in their 10-20 home loss to the Cowboys. They also mustered just 231 total yards on the road against the Jets and were very fortunate to win that game 24-17 thanks to the help of an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles.

The Saints have won their last three matchups against the Eagles, including the postseason, with two of those victories coming in Philadelphia and five of the last six.  Philadelphia is dealing with some key injuries of its own, too. LB Kiko Alonso is out, while DE Cedric Thornton, DE Taylor Hart, LB Mychal Kendricks, CB Byron Maxwell and OT Jason Peters are all questionable with various injuries.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans Money Line +120

The Tennessee Titans are getting no love from the oddsmakers this season.  There's no doubt in my mind that after seeing three games out of them that they are one of the most improved teams in the NFL.  But because they are just 1-2 when they could easily be 3-0, they remain undervalued this week.

After crushing Tampa Bay 42-14 on the road in Week 1, the Titans lost 14-28 at Cleveland in Week 2.  But they had several self-inflicted wounds in that game as they were -3 in turnover differential.  They actually outgianed the Browns by 111 total yards in that loss.  They then blew a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter to Indianapolis and lost 33-35 at home in Week 3 despite outgaining the Colts by 55 yards.

Now the Titans return from their bye week pissed off an wanting a win to get back to .500.  Statistically, the Titans have been one of the best teams in the NFL.  They are outgaining teams by an average of 67.4 yards per game while averaging 375.7 yards on offense and only giving up 308.3 yards on defense.  They rank 5th in the entire NFL in yardage differential this season.

The Bills are perceived to be the better team because they are 2-2 with wins over the Dolphins and Colts and a "close" loss to New England, 32-40.  But that game against the Patriots was a blowout until the Bills scored 19 points in 4th quarter garbage time.  The Bills actually rank 21st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 18.3 yards per game this season.  Their defense isn't as good as perceived, either, giving up 376.3 yards per game.

While the Titans are pretty much fully healthy coming into this one, the Bills clearly are not.  They are going to be without their top two running backs in LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, while their top WR in Sammy Watkins is doubtful with a calf injury.  They even had to sign a running back this week in Dan Herron because their 3rd-stringer in Boobie Dixon is banged up as well.  This is just a very bad spot for this Buffalo offense against an improved, hungry Tennessee defense.  Take the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +21.5

Being 0-5 really has the Wyoming Cowboys undervalued right now.  I've been impressed with the way they've played against some solid teams in Washington State, New Mexico and Appalachian State the last three weeks.  I have no doubt that they can hang around against Air Force and easily stay within 3 touchdowns this week.

Wyoming outgained Washington State 409-378 in a 14-31 road loss at 25.5-point favorites in a game that was closer than the final score.  Wyoming was only outgained 408-409 in a 28-38 home loss to New Mexico as 4-point underdogs.  The Cowboys also outgained Appalachian State 373-314 in a 13-31 road loss at 26-point dogs last week in a game that was also closer than the final score.  Those three performances, especially the way they played defensively against a great Appalachian State offense, makes me believe they can hang around for four quarters.

Air Force is coming off a griding 11-33 road loss at Navy last week that had to take a lot out of them.  Now they'll be up against another run-heavy offense in Wyoming, which averages 169 yards per game.  But the Cowboys are vastly improved offensively this season due to the addition of former Indiana transfer Carson Coffman, averaging 228 passing yards per game.  Coffman is completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 1,087 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on the year.

Wyoming has owned Air Force the past two seasons.  It beat Air Force 17-13 at home last year as 1-point underdogs, and rolled to a 56-23 road win in 2013 as 4-point favorites.  I see no way that Air Force should be this heavily favored a year later, but the fact that the Cowboys are 0-5 has them so undervalued right now as stated before.

Air Force is 3-17 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Cowboys area perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Air Force.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* Cal/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +8

I believe that Utah Utes to be overvalued here. The last impression the betting public has of them is beating Oregon 62-20 on the road and covering the spread by 52.5 points. They see that result and think that Utah is all of a sudden an elite team, and most of the bets are on Utah because of it. But this line has been dropping since opening at 8, which means the big money is on California, and I agree that it should be.

There’s no doubt that any win in Eugene is a good one, but this Oregon team is clearly down with two losses already. The Ducks rank 103rd in the country in total defense as they are giving up 441.4 yards per game this season. Not to mention, starting quarterback Vernon Adams was hurt in the Utah game and only attempted seven passes, one of which went for a touchdown. So the Ducks had to alter their gameplan and went with backup Jeff Lockie for the final three quarters. It was a 6-6 game before Adams went out with an injury.

What concerns me most about this Utah team is its performance in the previous three games. It beat Michigan 24-17 at home despite getting outgained by 18 yards, it beat Utah State 24-14 at home despite getting outgained by 46 yards, and it only outgained Fresno State by 15 yards in its 45-24 road win. That’s the same Fresno State team that has lost to Ole Miss by 52, San Jose State by 26 and San Diego State by 14.

I also believe that the No. 5 national ranking will go to Utah players’ heads this week. It has been a bad omen to be this highly ranked, just ask Ohio State, Michigan State and Ole Miss. Ohio State is 1-4 against the spread this season, Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread, and Ole Miss is 0-2 against the spread with an ugly loss to Florida ever since being ranked No. 3. With a high ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that is hard to live up to week to week.

California is probably the most improved team in the entire country this season. You could make a case for other teams for sure, but the fact that the Golden Bears are 5-0 when their season win total was 5.5 speaks volumes about how far this team has come. Of course, it wasn’t a surprise to me because they returned 17 starters and were projected to have all 22 upperclassmen starters as juniors or seniors. Don’t look now, but the Golden Bears are legitimate contenders to win the Pac-12 this season.

After thumping Grambling and San Diego State a combined 108-21 in its first two games, California led Texas 45-24 in the fourth quarter on the road but only ended up winning 45-44 after a missed extra point by Texas. That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score showed, but most folks look at a close win like that over a down Texas team and don’t give the Golden Bears much respect.

Two weeks ago, Cal went on the road and beat Washington 30-24 in another game that was a bigger blowout than the score showed. Cal outgained Washington by 222 total yards and its defense held the Huskies to just 259 yards while forcing five turnovers. A 34-28 win over Washington State last week also has the betting public concerned with this team as they only outgained the Cougars by 66 yards. But that was clearly a letdown spot for the Golden Bears as they were coming off two big road wins over Texas & Washington with this big road game against Utah on deck.

California has one of the best offenses in the country. It is putting up 43.4 points, 527.8 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play against opponents who allow 35.3 points, 443 yards per game and 5.8 per play. Jared Goff is a possible No. 1 draft pick and can keep the Golden Bears in any game. The junior is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,630 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt.

The defense is improved, too, allowing 23.4 points and 387 yards per game this year.  Just to show how improved this defense is, let's look at what they did last year compared to this year.  They allowed 90 points and nearly 1,200 total yards in losses to Washington and Washington State last year.  This year, they held those two teams to a combined 52 points and 662 total yards, cutting the numbers nearly in half.

The numbers just don’t add up for Utah. They are outscoring teams by 20.0 yards per game despite only outgaining them by 20.0 yards per game. This is the sign of an overrated team and one that won’t be able to live up to that No. 5 ranking. California is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games overall. The Utes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Kyle Whittingham is 7-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet California Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -2.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in college football.  This is a team you need to keep your eye on going forward.  They were much better than their 3-9 record last year, and they returned 16 starters from that team.  In the end, I look for the Spartans to be one of the most improved teams in the country when it's all said and done.

After a slow start to the season with road losses against quality opponents in Air Force and Oregon State, the Spartans have looked much better the last two weeks.  They crushed Fresno State 49-23 at home while outgaining them by a whopping 296 total yards and limiting the Bulldogs to just 247 yards of total offense.

I was just as impressed with their 21-35 loss at Auburn last week as they outgained the Tigers by 64 yards and had every chance to win that game, but they finished -4 in turnover differential.  If they can hang with a team the caliber of Auburn, there's no doubt they should crush arguably the worst team in the Mountain West in UNLV this week.

This is a rebuilding year for UNLV, which went just 2-11 last year and returned 10 starts from that team.  UNLV has managed to go 2-3 to this point, but its two wins have come against Idaho State and Nevada, which is down this year as well.  It was beat by 21 at Michigan, by 34 at home to UCLA, and by 8 at Northern Illinois, which has lost three straight games as we speak.

The numbers for San Jose State are very impressive.  It is putting up 439.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play offensively, while giving up 333.0 yards per game and 5.2 per play defensively.  That's even more impressive when you consider the quality of competition faced so far in New Hampshire, Air Force, Oregon State, Fresno State and Auburn.

San Jose State has owned UNLV in recent years, too.  It is 5-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last five meetings.  It beat UNLV 34-24 on the road in 2013 while outgaining the Rebels 492-351.  Last year the Spartans crushed the Rebels 33-10 at home while holding a 542-221 yard edge as well.  This game won't be close, either.

San Jose State is 18-5 ATS as a road favorite since 1992.  UNLV is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a road win over a conference opponent.  The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  The Spartans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take San Jose State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +15.5

The Boise State Broncos could not possibly be more overvalue than they are right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since losing 24-35 at BYU.  Now only are they winning, they are dominating by outscoring Idaho State, Virginia & Hawaii a combined 161-14 while covering the spread by a combined 81 points.  It's safe to say that the betting public is all over them now, driving this line up from -11.5 to -15.5.  This is the perfect time to sell high on the Broncos.

It's also a great time to buy low on Colorado State, which has gone 1-3 straight up in its last four games and 0-2-1 ATS in its last three.  The Rams could easily be 4-1 right now instead of 2-3, but they lost in overtime to a pair of Power 5 conference teams in Minnesota (20-23) and Colorado (24-27).  This is still a very good team that returned 15 starters from a squad that went 10-3 last year.

Despite being just 2-3, the Rams have put up impressive numbers that lead me to believe they are much better than their record.  Their offense is averaging 32.0 points and 444.2 yards per game, while their defense is giving up just 361.6 yards per game, so they are outgaining teams by roughly 83 yards per contest.  But what has held them down is the sixth-most turnovers (14) in the FBS, which is kind of fluky and will turn around.

After playing three straight cupcakes in Idaho State, Virginia & Hawaii, Boise State will meet its match this week.  The other two games that Boise State have played are BYU and Washington, which are their two toughest opponents outside of Colorado State up to this point.  They only beat Washington 16-13 as 13-point home favorites, and they lost to BYU 24-35 as 2-point road favorites.

Colorado State has played Boise State very tough the last two years.  It lost 30-42 at home as 7-point dogs back in 2013 and should have won that game as it outgained the Broncos 626-437.  The Rams were only beaten 24-37 as 7.5-point road underdogs last year as well.  As you'll notice, the lines for those two games were right around a touchdown, and the line for this 2015 meeting is 15.5.  That fact alone shows you how overvalued this Broncos team is right now.

The Rams are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Colorado State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Take Colorado State Saturday.

15* Cubs/Cards NLDS Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +125

The Chicago Cubs know that they must win this game if they want to beat the Cardinals in this series.  I look for them to get it done tonight now that they are past John Lackey and onto the average starters in this St. Louis rotation.

Kyle Hendricks had a fine season for the Cubs, going 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 32 starts.  He really impressed down the stretch, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts while pitching 12 shutout innings and allowing only five base runners and striking out 17 in wins over the Royals and Brewers.

Hendricks is 15-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Cubs are 10-1 in their last 11 road games.  Chicago is 5-1 in Hendricks' last six road starts.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Hendricks' last six Saturday starts.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

15* Navy/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on Navy +14

This is a very tough spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest game of the season last week in a 22-24 loss at Clemson where they missed a 2-point conversion late that would have forced overtime.  Now they will suffer a hangover from that loss.  They'll also be looking ahead to their next huge game against USC next week.  They won't bring the kind of focus it takes to put away a very good Navy team by more than two touchdowns.

That has been the case each of the last two seasons, too.  Navy only lost 34-38 at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs in 2013.  It was only outgained 419-506 by the Fighting Irish.  Navy also only lost 39-49 on a neutral field to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs last year.  The Midshipmen were only outgained 454-533 in the loss.  Now this is the best team Navy has had in quite some time.

Indeed, Navy is a perfect 4-0 this season with four wins by double-digits.  That includes a 45-21 win over an ECU team that nearly upset Florida and did upset Virginia Tech.  That also includes a 33-11 win over an Air Force team that won 10 games last year and is solid again this season.  Keenan Reynolds is the best triple-option QB that Navy has ever had.  He has rushed for 488 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season.  He is great with the football, too, as the Midshipmen have only turned the ball over once this year.

Navy is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.  It is actually outscoring these favorites by 5.3 points per game in this spot.  The Midshipmen are 73-35 ATS in their last 108 road games overall.  Notre Dame is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. awful passing teams that average 125 or fewer passing yards per game since 1992.  The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Navy Saturday.

25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +3.5

I would strongly argue that Tennessee should be 5-0 right now, but because this team is just 2-3, it is undervalued coming into this game against Georgia. I was high on the Volunteers coming into the season as I believed they were the best team in the SEC East. Despite the 2-3 record, I still feel like they are the best team in this side of the conference.

The Vols held a 17-3 lead over Oklahoma at home before allowing 14 points in the fourth quarter and eventually losing in double-overtime. They had a 27-14 lead over Florida with just over four minutes remaining before giving up two late touchdowns and losing 28-27 on the road. They also held a 14-0 lead over Arkansas last week before blowing it and losing 24-20 at home. That’s three double-digit blown leads in all three of their losses, which is nearly impossible.

The Volunteers have obviously played an extremely difficult schedule up to this point, too, which has them battle-tested heading into this game. Oklahoma and Florida are both ranked in the Top 11 and unbeaten. Florida rolled Ole Miss last week, while Oklahoma crushed West Virginia. Arkansas is still a very solid team, and Bowling Green is one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country. That tough schedule will aid the Vols in what is clearly a must-win game for them if they want to win the SEC East.

Georgia was exposed last week after playing a cake schedule in its first four games. I was all over Alabama last week because Georgia hadn’t played anyone. The Bulldogs first four opponents were Louisiana-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern with three of those games at home. In their only road game, they did beat Vanderbilt 31-14, but that game was closer than the final score. The Bulldogs only outgained the Commodores 422-400, or by 22 total yards. Allowing 400 yards to Vanderbilt was a sign of things to come for them last week.

Georgia was rocked 10-38 at home by Alabama as its one-dimensional rushing attack was shut down. The Crimson Tide forced four Georgia turnovers, including three by their quarterbacks. Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey finished a combined 11 of 31 passing for 106 yards with three interceptions against Alabama. The Bulldogs’ one-dimensional offense will have a hard time moving the ball on this improved Tennessee defense this week, too.

Not only is Tennessee motivated following three double-digit blown leads this year, it is also motivated from four straight crushing losses to Georgia. Indeed, the Bulldogs have won each of the last four meetings with Tennessee by 8 points or less. They won 20-12 in 2011, 51-44 in 2012, 34-31 (OT) in 2013, and 35-32 in 2014. But this will be by far the best Tennessee team that Georgia has faced during this span.  The Vols have a bye week on deck, so their entire focus will be on this game.  It’s simply revenge time for the Volunteers Saturday as they put their best foot forward this week.

One thing to look for is the advantage that Tennessee is going to have on special teams, too.  Georgia ranks last in the nation in kickoff returns at only 14 yards per return.  Georgia also ranks 119th in the country in punting with a net average of 32 net yards.  Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in kickoff returns and 6th in punting.  Winning the field position battle will aid them this week as well.

This is also a hangover spot for the Bulldogs as that game against Alabama last week was supposed to be the game of the week in college football.  Mark Richt is 3-11 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the head coach at Georgia.  He hasn't been good at getting his players to respond following a bad loss in SEC play.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +11

This is an awful spot for Texas Tech, which is a big reason why this line is dropping when the betting public is all over the Red Raiders.  That means the big money is coming in on Iowa State, and I couldn't agree more that it should be this week.

Texas Tech is coming off a grueling 3-week stretch in which it has faced Arkansas, TCU and Baylor.  After beating Arkansas and nearly upsetting TCU, the Red Raiders couldn't keep up with Baylor in a 35-63 loss last week.  Now they'll really have nothing left in the tank to face Iowa State.  They also won't be able to get up for this game after playing three big-time opponents in a row.

That seems to be the case every time Texas Tech plays Iowa State as it doesn't take the Cyclones seriously.  Iowa State hasn't lost by more than 11 to Texas Tech in any of the last five seasons.  The Red Raiders won 34-31 last year, 42-35 in 2013 as 14-point favorites, and 24-13 in 2012.  Iowa State won 41-7 in 2011 as 15.5-point dogs and 52-38 in 2010 as 6.5-point dogs.  So the Cyclones have actually outscored the Red Raiders 172-145 in the last five meetings.

This is clearly an improved Iowa State team that could easily be 4-0 right now.  It has rolled at home over both Northern Iowa (31-7) and Kansas (38-13).  It led Iowa 17-10 in the second half before eventually losing 17-31 as the Hawkeyes tacked on a garbage TD late.  That's the same Iowa team that is 5-0 and just won at Wisconsin last week. The Cyclones also lost 23-30 at Toledo in double-overtime after missing a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it.  That's the same Toledo team that went on the road and beat Arkansas.  The Cyclones actually outgained the Rockets by 172 total yards in that game and never should have lost.

Plays against a home team (TEXAS TECH) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after a loss by 28 or more points are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games over the last three seasons.  It is losing 29.2 to 51.0 on average in this spot.  The Red Raiders will come out flat Saturday and will likely get upset by the Cyclones, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14

The UMass Minutemen are showing solid value as two-touchdown underdogs to the Bowling Green Falcons Saturday. The betting public has fallen in love with Bowling Green the last few weeks and have been paid off handsomely for the most part.  They public loves their high-scoring offense, so they aren't afraid to lay a big number like this one.  But there's clearly value with UMass because of it.

Bowling Green had covered the spread in three straight games with a 48-27 win at Maryland, a 41-44 loss to Memphis at home, and a 35-28 win at Purdue.  The public was all over them last week, driving their line at Buffalo all the way up to -8 after starting out around -3.  The Falcons failed to cover with a 28-22 win.  That hasn't stopped the public from driving this line up from -12.5 to -14, though.

UMass is certainly an underrated team that I have been impressed with despite a 1-3 start.  Its three losses have come on the road to Colorado, at home to Temple, and at Notre Dame.  I was very impressed with a 23-25 loss to Temple as 13.5-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 20 yards against a Temple team that is 4-0 with impressive wins over Penn State and Cincinnati.

But the Minutemen were even more impressive last week in their 24-14 home win over Florida International.  Sure, the score looks close, but it was anything but close.  UMass actually outgained FIU by 307 total yards in the win.  It racked up 495 yards of total offense, while also coming through with by far its best defensive performance of the year while holding the Panthers to 188 total yards.  That's a good sign coming into this week against this high-octane BG attack.

UMass proved last year that it can score with Bowling Green.  It only lost 42-47 as 5.5-point home underdogs.  The Minutemen racked up 638 total yards on this Bowling Green defense last year.  Blake Frohnapfel, one of the most underrated QB's in the country, threw for 589 yards and five touchdowns against one interception in the loss.  Frohnapfel should find plenty of success through the air against a Bowling Green defense that is allowing 36.0 points and 482.4 yards per game this season.

UMass is 8-1 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last two years.  UMass is 6-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons.  Bowling Green is giving up 64.1% completions and 295 yards per game through the air this year.  Roll with UMass Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas Red River Rivalry Play on Texas +17

The Sooners could not possibly be much more overvalued than they are right now. They are coming off a 20-point win over West Virginia in their Big 12 opener last week. They forced five WVU turnovers which turned a close game into a blowout real quickly. Don’t expect them to be so fortunate in the turnover department again this week.

The betting public just remembers what happened last week, which is why the Sooners are overvalued. But the fact of the matter is that Oklahoma struggled in its two previous games. It had to erase a 17-3 deficit to Tennessee in the fourth quarter to win in overtime, and then it only beat Tulsa by 14 despite being 33.5-point favorites. They gave up a whopping 603 total yards to the Golden Hurricane in that game.  This team still has plenty of flaws and will struggle to put away the Longhorns by more than 17 points.

At the same time, Texas couldn’t be more undervalued right now. It is coming off a 50-7 road loss to TCU as 14-point underdogs, failing to cover the spread by 29 points. The Longhorns didn’t even score until just over five minutes to play in that game. The betting public sees that kind of loss and wants nothing to do with the Longhorns this week, forcing the oddsmakers to give them extra points.

But I know that Texas easily could have beaten two very good teams in California and Oklahoma State the previous two weeks, who are both ranked in the Top 25 and are a combined 10-0. They lost to California 44-45 despite outgaining the Bears by 102 total yards as they missed an extra point at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. They also missed a late field goal against Oklahoma State and lost 27-30. Those two efforts show what the Longhorns are capable of. After two crushing losses like that, it was only human nature for them to suffer a hangover last week at TCU.

The betting public has written off Texas each of the last two years heading into the Red River Rivalry, too. Texas was a 13.5-point underdog in 2013 and pulled off the outright upset in a dominant 36-20 win as it outgained Oklahoma 445-263. Last year, Texas was a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma and lost 26-31. But there’s no way the Longhorns should have lost that game when you consider they outgained the Sooners 482-232, or by 250 total yards. The Longhorns usually bring their best game against the Sooners, and I look for that to be the case again this year.

Charlie Strong is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced zero turnovers in all games he has coached. Strong is 13-2 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games in October.  Take Texas Saturday.

25* NC State/VA Tech CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2

Any time you can get Virginia Tech as a home underdog, or as a favorite of less than 3, it's worth a look. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Hokies as underdogs or small favorites there. Everyone is quick to count the Hokies out after their slow start to the season, which has provided some nice line value here to swoop in and back them.

Virginia Tech will come in determined after back-to-back losses to very good East Carolina and Pittsburgh teams by a combined 11 points. After all, the Hokies had the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes on the ropes in the opener at Lane Stadium before giving up 28 unanswered points and losing 24-42.

This is still a very talented Virginia Tech team that returned 16 starters from last year. Obviously, the loss of starting quarterback Michael Brewer to injury in the opener has set this team back. But they have outgained three of their last four opponents. They outgained Furman by 329 yards in a 42-3 win, outgained Purdue by 206 yards in a 51-24 road win, and outgained ECU by 29 yards despite losing 28-35 on the road.

After two straight losses, the Hokies are going to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field and make amends Friday night. They have the type of defense that will shut down this NC State offense. The Hokies are only giving up 355.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 47% of their passes against what is one of the best secondaries in the country.

NC State is overrated due to such a soft non-conference schedule. Its first four opponents this season were Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama. Yes, the Wolfpack blew out all four opponents by 24 points or more, but you would expect that from a Power 5 team against that kind of competition.

The Wolfpack had their first true test last week against Louisville, and they failed miserably. They lost 13-30 at home and were outgained by 78 yards in that contest. Their offense only managed 228 total yards in the loss. That’s a Louisville defense that isn’t nearly as good as the one the Wolfpack will be up against Friday. Louisville has allowed 34 points to Houston and 31 to Auburn this season.

Virginia Tech is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games following a poor offensive performance where it gained 3.75 or fewer yards per game. The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Hokies are 41-17-2 ATS in their last 60 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Virginia Tech is the more battle-tested team coming into this one after playing the much tougher schedule up to this point.  Bet VA Tech Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -174

It's going to be exciting to see the atmosphere in Toronto today with a fan base starved for playoff baseball.  They've been waiting 22 years for this moment.  They last time they made the playoffs in 1993, they won it all behind a star-studded lineup.

This Toronto team is even more explosive than that one.  Toronto was the only team to top 800 runs this season, and it was 127 runs better than second-place.  That's the biggest gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 offenses since 1953.  The Blue Jays scored double-digit runs 26 times this season.  They also lead the majors in homers (232), RBIs (852) and walks (570).

After losing Game 1 yesterday, I fully expect the Blue Jays to get it done in Game 2 today.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big juice here.  It's a great move to go with Marcus Stroman, who has been one of the best starters in baseball down the stretch.

Stroman is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.963 WHIP over 4 starts this season while allowing only 5 earned runs in 27 innings.  The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Stroman's last 5 starts.  Take the Blue Jays Friday.

20* Washington/USC Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC -16.5

I still believe that the USC Trojans are one of the best teams in the country and a legitimate national title contender even though they lost to Stanford. The Cardinal simply wanted that game more after losing to the Trojans by a field goal each of the two previous seasons. The Cardinal always play the Trojans tough, too.

But USC proved in its last game that it is every bit as good as I thought it was. It went into Tempe and throttled Arizona State 42-14 as 4-point favorites. It racked up 455 total yards of offense behind five touchdown passes from Cody Kessler, and the defense forced four turnovers in the win.

Washington simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Kessler and this high-octane USC offense. The Trojans are putting up 46.7 points, 532.0 yards per game and 8.1 per play against teams that are only allowing 31.2 points, 408 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kessler is a Heisman Trophy contender, completing 73 percent of his passes for 1,297 yards with 15 touchdowns and only one interception through four games.

The Huskies were thoroughly outplayed in both of their losses to Boise State and California, which were bigger blowouts than the final scores would indicate. They were outgained by 158 yards in their 13-16 road loss to Boise State, and by 222 yards in their 24-30 home loss to California. But because those scores were close, the oddsmakers are giving the Huskies too much credit here.

Washington only managed 179 total yards against Boise State and 259 total yards against California. While Boise State does have a good defense, California’s stop unit is not very good this season. I believe this USC defense will be the best that the Huskies have faced yet, too. It would be hard to envision this Washington offense topping 14 points in this game Thursday night. That’s going to make it very difficult for the Huskies to stay within 17 points.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Washington) in a game involving two excellent passing teams who average at least 8.3 yards per attempt, after allowing 8 or more yards/attempt in their previous game are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1992. Cal’s Jared Goff threw for 342 yards on this Washington defense last week. USC is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a road blowout win by 28 points or more.  Bet USC Thursday.

15* Colts/Texans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Houston -2

This line is indicating that Andrew Luck will be playing, otherwise the Texans would be much bigger favorites. I believe there is value with the Texans since he is expected to play because he’s not 100%. Plus, the Colts have all kinds of other issues outside of Luck, especially defensively.

Indeed, the Colts gave up 431 total yards to the Jaguars last week and should have lost. They are allowing 387.5 yards per game and 5.8 per play against opposing offenses who are averaging 359 yards per game and 5.7 per play. They just cannot stop anybody, and they are going to have a hard time slowing down this improved Houston offense.

Arian Foster saw the field on a limited bases against Atlanta last week. But now he should be ready for a full workload, and this offense is even better when that’s the case. The Texans have still put up impressive numbers offensively, averaging 384.2 yards per game on the season even without the services of Foster.  But make no mistake, this offense goes as Foster goes.

Yes, Houston is giving up 27.0 points per game, but that’s very fluky because they are only allowing 344.0 yards per game defensively. That point total is inflated due to non-offensive touchdowns by the opposition, which the Texans need to limit going forward. Houston is actually outgaining teams by 40.2 yards per game this season, while Indianapolis is getting outgained by 48.8 yards per game.

This is more of a must-win game for the Texans than it is for the Colts. The Texans have started 1-3 this year and cannot afford to drop to 1-4. If they win this game, they easily could be tied for the division lead. Bill O’Brien will certainly have his team fired up after the embarrassment that happened in Atlanta last week.

Plays on any team (Houston), a slow starting offensive team that averages 7 or fewer points per game in the first half, after allowing 40 points or more last game are 56-26 (68.3%) ATS since 1983. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after gaining less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Take the Texans Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)

It's going to be exciting to see the atmosphere in Toronto today with a fan base starved for playoff baseball.  They've been waiting 22 years for this moment.  They last time they made the playoffs in 1993, they won it all behind a star-studded lineup.

This Toronto team is even more explosive than that one.  Toronto was the only team to top 800 runs this season, and it was 127 runs better than second-place.  That's the biggest gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 offenses since 1953.  The Blue Jays scored double-digit runs 26 times this season.  They also lead the majors in homers (232), RBIs (852) and walks (570).

David Price proved to be a huge addition to the rotation prior to the deadline.  The left-hander has gone 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts after he was acquired from Detroit on July 30.  He'll be up against Yovani Gallardo, who struggled down the stretch going 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

Toronto os a perfect 10-0 against the money line in home games off two or more consecutive losses this season.  It is winning by 4.7 runs per game in this spot.  Price is 11-1 against the money line in day games this season.  His teams are winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line.

20* Cubs/Pirates NL Wild Card No-Brainer on Chicago -134

The reward for going 97-65 and finishing with the 3rd-best record in baseball?  How about a one-game playoff on the road?  That's what the Cubs are facing if they want to just stay alive in this postseason.  The good news is that they have the hottest pitcher in baseball to get them on to the next round.

Jake Arrieta has a 1.77 ERA on the season and his 0.75 ERA since the All-Star Break is an MLB record.  Since the break, he has struck out 113 batters in 107 1/3 innings while issuing just 22 unintentional walks and allowing two homers.

Arrieta has hit two homers himself over that same span.  Opposing hitters have managed a paltry triple-slash line of .148/.204/.205 since the break.  That's a .409 OPS allowed, which is really hard to fathom.  The guy is simply unstoppable right now.

The Pirates haven't had any success against Arrieta, either.  Arrieta is 6-1 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in nine career starts against Pittsburgh.  He has faced the Pirates five times in 2015, going 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA while allowing only 3 earned runs and 24 base runners in 36 innings without giving up a homer.

Arrieta is a perfect 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Cubs are winning 6.0 to 2.0 on average in this spot, or by 4.0 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* Astros/Yankees AL Wild Card Rout on New York +100

There's definitely some value here in getting the New York Yankees as home underdogs in the wild card game against the Houston Astros.  I do not believe the Astros should be favored in this one given that I actually feel that the Yankees have the edge on the mound.

Masahiro Tanaka is having a very good season at 12-7 with a 3.51 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in 24 starts.  He has given up a few too many home runs this year, but I expect him to command the ball down in the strike zone better tonight against the free-swinging Astros.

Dallas Keuchel is having a phenomenal year for Houston.....at home.  It has been a different story for Keuchel on the road.  He hasn't commanded the ball nearly as well away from home, going 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA in 15 starts.  He has given up 13 homers on the road, too.

It has kind of been a theme for this entire Astros team, who are 33-48 on the road this year.  The Astros are 47-116 in their last 163 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Houston is 3-8 in Keuchel's last 11 road starts.  The Yankees are 13-3 in Tanaka's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

20* Lions/Seahawks ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Seattle -9.5

Getting Kam Chancellor back certainly made a huge difference for this Seattle defense last week. Of course, it helped that they were up against Jimmy Clausen and the Bears, but to shut out any team is impressive. The Seahawks only allowed 146 total yards to the Bears. All 12 of Chicago’s possessions ended in punts, which is mighty impressive.

Seattle got its offense going last week as well in its 26-0 victory. It put up 371 total yards with 159 rushing and 212 passing despite Marshawn Lynch only getting five carries. Thomas Rawls took the place of an injured Lynch and rushed 16 times for 104 yards in the win. That’s important because Lynch may not play this week as he’s questionable with a hamstring injury.

The Lions are simply that bad that I’m willing to go against them here as 9.5-point underdogs. I usually look for dogs, but I cannot see any reason to take them this week. Jim Caldwell just doesn’t have the attention of his team, and Golden Tate said this week that other teams are calling out their plays on offense. They are too predictable on that side of the ball, and their defense has taken a major step back this year.

The Lions were one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL last season, and it hasn’t been any better in 2015. They are only averaging 18.7 points and 305.0 yards per game. They cannot run the football, which makes their offense very predictable. They are only averaging 45 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. This Legion of Boom Seattle defense thrives against the pass, making this an excellent matchup for the Seahawks.

The loss of Ndamukong Suh in the middle of the Lions’ defense has been huge. But they’ve also been without middle linebacker DeAndre Levy, who is questionable to return this week with a hip injury. The Lions are giving up 27.7 points and 395.7 yards per game this season against opponents who are only averaging 22.2 points and 329 yards per game. They are also giving up 6.2 yards per play against opponents who average 5.4 yards per play.

The Seahawks simply do not lose at home. They are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games overall. Seattle is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine Monday Night games. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game.  Bet the Seahawks Monday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7.5

The Arizona Cardinals could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  Yes, they are blowing teams out, but their three opponents in the Bears, 49ers and Saints are a combined 1-8 on the season.  They have simply taken advantage of a soft schedule.  They have now created expectations for themselves from the betting public and oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to, and that's going to show this week after their 3-0 ATS start.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Rams would have a hard time being more undervalued than they are right now.  After beating the Seahawks 34-31, they were overvalued as 3-point favorites at Washington in Week 2.  They suffered a letdown in that game and lost 10-24.  They also lost at home 6-12 last week to the Pittsburgh Steelers, failing to cover the spread for a second consecutive week.

I really like this Rams defense this season.  It held the Seahawks to 343 total yards and the Steelers to just 259 total yards.  It is giving up just 325.0 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 359 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  It is also giving up only 6.2 passing yards per attempt while leading the NFL in most sacks per pass attempt.  That's key because the Cardinals love to throw the football.

The Rams went into Arizona last year and were ready to pull off the upset.  They led 14-10 in the 4th quarter and were almost surely going to cover as 7-point underdogs.  But that's when a bunch of fluky things happened.  They gave up a touchdown with 7:40 to go and trailed 17-14, and then proceeded to give up two defensive touchdowns with an interception return and a fumble return over the final five minutes.  The Cardinals scored three times in a matter of less than four minutes, which simply does not happen.  It's revenge time for the Rams after losing three straight in this series.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 210-134 (61%) ATS since 1983.  Jeff Fisher is 15-4 ATS in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games in all games he has coached.  Take the Rams Sunday.

15* Vikings/Broncos Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota +7

The Denver Broncos are extremely fortunate to be 3-0 right now. They trailed the Ravens in the fourth quarter before getting a defensive touchdown to win 19-13. They also trailed late against the Chiefs before tying the game with only a few seconds remaining, and then got a defensive touchdown on a fumble by Jamaal Charles just before the end of regulation to win 31-24. They were also only up 14-12 on the Lions in the final period before adding a touchdown and a field goal over the final eight minutes to win 24-12.  The three teams they've beaten are a combined 3-8 as well.

This Denver team has a different feel to it than the previous versions under Peyton Manning. The Broncos are going to be forced to win a lot more close, defensive battles. That certainly favors taking underdogs of a touchdown or more in their games. The Broncos just don’t have a very good offense this season as they are averaging just 290.7 yards per game and 4.5 per play against teams that give up 384 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.

I believe the Vikings' 3-20 loss at the 49ers was an aberration more than anything. They came into that game over-hyped, while the 49ers came in with something to prove after getting bashed all offseason. The Vikings responded well the last two weeks, beating Detroit and San Diego a combined 57-30 at home.

The Vikings only ran the ball 17 times against the 49ers in Week 1 with Adrian Peterson only receiving 10 carries. But they have gotten back to who they really are the last two weeks, which is a ground and pound team. They rushed 42 times for 199 yards against the Lions, and 31 times for 163 yards against the Chargers. Peterson had 192 total yards from scrimmage against the Lions and rushed 20 times for 126 yards and two scores against San Diego.

Minnesota’s offense has taken off with the new formula to run the football, and its defense is one of the top units in the league. The Vikings went from allowing 30 points per game in 2013 to just 21.4 points per game last year in Mike Zimmer’s first season on the job. Now they are giving up just 16.7 points per game through the first three weeks of the season. I believe this is a much more evenly-matched game than this spread would indicate.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) – after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in their last game over the past three seasons. Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Roll with the Vikings Sunday.

25* AFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs +4

Off back-to-back losses and off to a 1-2 start, the Chiefs are going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday. The Bengals can afford a loss at this point after a 3-0 start to the season. I just look at this as a motivational mismatch, but I’m not so sure that the Chiefs aren’t actually the better team, too.

Kansas City has lost the last two weeks to Denver and Green Bay, which are two of the best teams in the NFL this season. Those two teams are a combined 6-0. The Chiefs should have beaten the Broncos, but they committed five turnovers and allowed two late touchdowns in a span of seconds. They didn’t play well in Green Bay, but who does?

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 3-0 against teams that are a combined 3-6 this season. They beat the Raiders, who have only beaten the Browns and Ravens. They beat the Chargers, who have only beaten the Lions. They also beat the Ravens, who are 1-3 on the year. I’m not ready to call the Bengals an elite team just yet. I think they have taken advantage of a soft schedule more than anything.

While I’m certain the Chiefs still have one of the best defenses in the league despite the numbers, I think the Bengals aren’t as good defensively as the numbers would indicate. Cincinnati is giving up 69.7% completions to opposing quarterbacks this year. That’s important because Andy Reid is 9-2 ATS against awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse as the coach of Kansas City.

Aaron Rodgers picked apart a decimated Kansas City secondary last week.  That won't happen this week.  That's because the best cornerback on the Chiefs roster returns from a 3-game suspension that has sidelined him up to this point.  Sean Smith has served his suspension, and now he'll team up with Marcus Peters to form one of the best CB duos in the league for the remainder of the season.

The Chiefs are 19-8 ATS in road games off a road loss since 1992. Kansas City is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS int heir last 10 road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. The Bengals are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Week 4 games.  Andy Reid is 46-26 ATS as a road underdog in his coaching career.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

The Carolina Panthers are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL this season.  They are 3-0 with their three wins coming against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, who are a combined 2-7 on the season.  They didn't cover against New Orleans last week as they were 10-point favorites in that game at home, and now they are overvalued again as 3.5-point road favorites over the Bucs.

It was going to take some time for the Bucs to gel as a team with a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston.  But after three games, the chemistry should now be much better with Winston and company going forward.  This Carolina defense that is perceived to be great gave up 380 total yards to the Saints last week, including 31 of 38 passing for 280 yards to backup QB Luke McCown.  I look for Winston to have his best game yet Sunday.

The Panthers are dealing with all kinds of injuries right now, especially on defense.  Starting DE Charles Johnson is out with a hamstring injury, NFL Defensive MVP Luke Keuchly is doubtful with a concussion, starting CB Josh Norman is questionable, and key DE Frank Alexander is out with an Achilles injury.  Offensively, the Panthers are without their best receiver in Jerricho Cotchery, and backup RB Mike Tolbert is questionable with a groin injury.

Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) - off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucs are going to be out for revenge after losing each of their last four meetings with the Panthers, including both meetings by a combined 8 points last year.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* Eagles/Redskins NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington +3

The Philadelphia Eagles are not the same team they had been the previous two seasons under Chip Kelly. It’s already clear to me that the moves he made this offseason really have backfired. The numbers show that the Eagles are one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, while the Redskins are one of the better teams despite sharing identical 1-2 records.

Philadelphia did play a decent game against Atlanta in the opener and lost 24-26. But the last two weeks have been awful. The Eagles were outgained by 133 yards by the Cowboys in their 10-20 home loss, and that was even with Tony Romo getting hurt in the second half and no Dez Bryant. Then, they were outgained by 92 yards against the Jets last week and only won because they got an 89-yard punt return TD from Darren Sproles, and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions.

The Eagles only managed 226 yards of total offense against the Cowboys and 231 against the Jets. This isn’t the same explosive offense we’ve become accustomed to seeing. They are averaging 285.3 yards per game and 4.5 per play, while allowing 360.3 yards per game and 5.1 per play. As you can see, they are getting outgained by 75 yards per game. They are also dealing with key injuries right now to DeMarco Murray and a pair of starting linebackers in Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks.

The Redskins are much better than they are getting credit for this season. They outgained Miami by 93 yards in a 10-17 home loss, and they only lost that game because they gave up a punt return touchdown. They then thoroughly dominated the Rams at home in Week 2 by outgaining them by 160 yards in a 24-10 win. You could argue that they outplayed the Giants last week as they outgained them by 30 yards but lost 21-32 on the road.

The Redskins are putting up 371.7 yards per game and allowing just 277.3 yards per game, outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per contest. That’s the sign of a good team and one that is better than the 1-2 record would indicate. But they are -5 in turnover differential to this point, so if they can just limit the turnovers they can beat anyone.

The home team has won three straight and five of the last seven meetings in this series. The Redskins are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles with all three losses coming by 8 points or less, so they have played them very tough.  The Redskins are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 vs. poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game. The Eagles are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Week 4 games. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. NFC foes.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

20* Clemson/Notre Dame Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -1.5

I believe this is where all the injuries finally catch up to Notre Dame. They are down six potential NFL Draft picks already, and while they obviously have good depth, it’s going to bite them sooner rather than later. They were able to escape with a 34-27 road win at Virginia and a 30-22 home win over Notre Dame, but now they face the best team them have played all season.

Clemson is the real deal this year with one of the best offenses in the country and a defense that is better than it was expected to be with all of the losses during the offseason. Deshaun Watson is one of the most electric quarterbacks in the country as this Clemson offense thrived last year when he was healthy, and it struggled when he wasn’t able to play.

Watson is completing 74.4 percent of his passes for 6451 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 93 yards. He led them to an average of 45.0 points per game in wins over Wofford and Appalachian State before managing just 20 points in a 20-17 win at Louisville.

But that 3-point win at Louisville was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tigers outgained the Cardinals by 129 total yards.  The Cardinals got a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarterback to make it interesting.  I believe this 3-point win over Louisville has the betting public scared off, which provides us with some extra value here.

The Clemson defense has been absolutely sensational again this season. It is only giving up 12.3 points and 261.0 yards per game just one year after leading the country in total defense. That’s really impressive when you consider the three opponents it has played average 29.8 points and 400 yards per game. So the Tigers have held their opponents to 17.5 points and 139 yards per game below their season averages.

This is a great spot for Clemson. It will have been 16 days since the Tigers last played on September 17 against Louisville. They have been able to watch both the Georgia Tech and UMass games that Notre Dame has played to get prepared for them. They will be well-rested and chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this game.

Clemson is a very tough place to play. The Tigers are 28-2 at home over the past five seasons as they have one of the best home-field advantages in all of college football. Their two losses came to Florida State in 2013 and South Carolina in 2012. Florida State won the national championship in 2013 and South Carolina finished with 11 wins in 2012.

Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Fighting Irish are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +14

This line is a classic overreaction based on what happened last week.  Arizona State was blown out at home by USC 14-42, while UCLA crushed Arizona on the road 56-30.  Both games were expected to be close according to the odds in Las Vegas, but both turned into blowouts.  But if they had set a line for ASU @ UCLA prior to last week, it would have been UCLA by 7 points or less.  I believe we're getting at least a full TD of value here now this week.

UCLA benefited from Arizona losing starting QB Anu Solomon early in that game last week.  The Bruins only outgained the Wildcats by 29 yards even with the loss of Solomon.  But that game was decided by three Arizona turnovers and a +3 turnover differential for the Bruins.  I don't think that win was as impressive as it appears at all, especially since I already had Arizona tabbed as one of the most overrated teams in the country.

Meanwhile, Arizona State lost to the best team in the Pac-12 in USC last week, and I was on the Trojans in that game.  But it wasn't the 42-14 blowout it would appear.  USC only outgained Arizona State 455-454, or by a single yard.  That game was put out of reach once ASU fumbled while it was going into the end zone, and it was returned 94 yards for a touchdown.  Had the Sun Devils scored on that play, they could have made a run.

After being +29 in turnover differential the past two seasons combined, the Sun Devils are -3 so far this season.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot.  They have fumbled a whopping 13 times already and lost 7 of those fumbles.  To compare, they only fumbled 15 times last year and lost 4 of them.  They have simply been unlucky in the early going, but I still believe the Sun Devils are one of the better teams in the Pac-12.

"Obviously our guys know that our backs are against the wall," Graham said Monday. "And everything, every issue we have is self-inflicted and we've just got to get those things corrected and take it upon ourselves to go to work and get it done."

The Sun Devils have responded well recently following a difficult loss.  In 2013, Arizona State suffered a tough loss to Stanford and scored 62 points in a rout over USC the next week. The Sun Devils followed a blowout loss to UCLA last season by beating USC on a Hail Mary the following week.

Arizona State is going to be out for revenge from its 62-27 loss to UCLA last year as well.  The Sun Devils actually outgained the Bruins 626-580 in that game as it was obviously a lot closer than the final score showed.  But turnovers did them in again as they were -4 in turnover differential.  Mike Bercovici went 42 of 68 for 488 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss.

UCLA only beat a bad Virginia team at home by 18 and only beat BYU 24-23 in its two home games this season.  That's the same BYU team that lost 31-0 at Michigan last week, and the same Virginia team that lost 14-56 at home to Boise State last week.  Arizona State is by far the best team that the Bruins will have faced.

The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 20 points or less in their previous game.  The Bruins are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 October games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Arizona State Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -114

I'll take a shot on the Detroit Tigers today at a great price considering the edge the Tigers have on the mound in this one.  Both the Tigers and White Sox are struggling to find wins down the stretch, but I trust in the road team to get it done today more.

Justin Verlander has really been dominant in the second half of the season.  He is now 5-8 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 19 starts, including 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in eight road starts.  Verlander has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts, and 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of those.

Verlander is 18-13 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 35 career starts against Chicago.  He has dominated the White Sox recently, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts against them.  He has only allowed 5 earned runs over 22 innings in those three starts.

The White Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 games following a win.  After losing Game 1 of this series to Chris Sale and the White Sox by a final of 2-1, I look for the Tigers to bounce back in Game 2 behind their ace in Verlander.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +45

I love fading LSU when it is laying massive points to non-conference opponents.  It's an easy choice because LSU doesn't play the brand of football that allows it to run up the scoreboard.  The Tigers play a conservative, run-heavy, ball-control approach that eats up clock and allows for big underdogs to cover these numbers with ease.

The biggest thing here is that LSU is not going to be concerned with running up the scoreboard.  It will be looking ahead to its next SEC game on the road against South Carolina.  I was not impressed with LSU's 34-24 win at Syracuse last week as 23-point favorites.  That was another situation where this team was simply laying too many points, but even though they didn't cover, oddsmakers aren't even factoring that into the line this week because they know the betting public will only back LSU.

Eastern Michigan is coming off two straight home losses and non-covers to Ball State (17-28) and Army (36-58).  Those two losses certainly look awful in the minds of the betting public, which has created some extra value here with this line.  I was impressed with this team the first two weeks as they flashed their potential and showed that they are certainly improved this year.

They lost to Old Dominion 34-38 as 6-point home underdogs in the opener due to having a -3 turnover differential.  They outgained the Monarchs by 31 yards in that loss.  Then they went on the road and upset Wyoming 48-29 as 13-point dogs and outgained the Cowboys by 44 yards in the win.  While these last two losses to Army and Ball State are concerning, it doesn't matter a whole lot when you're catching 45 points against a team that likely won't score 45 points themselves.

Eastern Michigan has shown me enough on offense to know that it can score a few times on this LSU defense.  It is averaging 33.7 points and 438.2 yards per game this season and 6.5 yards per play.  The improvement this team has made is almost exclusively due to this offense.  Brogan Robach is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 877 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions in just over 12 quarters of action this year.

Plays on road underdogs (E MICHIGAN) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (E MICHIGAN) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-42 (66.7%) ATS since 1992.

LSU is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -6.5

I believe the Ole Miss Rebels are the best team in college football this season. They showed that with their 43-37 road win at Alabama two weeks ago which followed up home wins over Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State by a combined 149-24 margin. They returned 16 starters this season in what is Hugh Freeze’s most talented team yet with the tremendous job he has done in recruiting.

I know a letdown spot when I see one, and that’s why I was on Vanderbilt +27 at Ole Miss last week. The Rebels weren’t going to be focused following their upset win over Alabama, and that proved to be the case. They made plenty of mental mistakes in that game and only wound up beating Vanderbilt 27-16. But they still outgained the Commodores by 150 total yards in the win.  Now Florida will have Ole Miss' full attention this week.

The Gators are 4-0 right now when they easily could be 1-3. They have won three straight games over ECU (31-24) at home, Kentucky (14-9) on the road and Tennessee (28-27) at home all by a touchdown or less. If they struggled to put those three teams away, they stand no chance of keeping this game close against the best team in college football.  They had a miracle win over Tennessee last week when they trailed by 13 with just over four minutes to play.  That win is keeping this line lower than it should be.

Ole Miss is loaded with firepower on offense this season as it’s averaging 54.7 points and 543.5 yards per game. Its defense is one of the best in the country once again just one year after it only allowed 16.0 points per game last year. The Rebels are yielding 19.2 points and 357.7 yards per game despite playing a pretty tough schedule up to this point.

Florida doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up. It was held to just 14 points with only four minutes to go against Tennessee last week. It was held to 14 points for the entire game against Kentucky the previous week. The Gators do have a solid defense, but they did allow 24 points to East Carolina and 27 to Tennessee. Ole Miss’ offense is a completely different animal.

Ole Miss is 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. Freeze is 28-15 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss. The Gators are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Alabama/Georgia CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama +1.5

I’m not ready to count out the Crimson Tide just yet. If they lose this game, they’ll have no shot at winning a national title this year. They can’t afford two losses because they probably won’t be winning the SEC West if that’s the case. I expect Nick Saban to rally the troops this week and let them know what’s at stake.

After all, this is the first time that Alabama has been an underdog in 73 games. Saban can use that as extra motivation as well. The last time they were an underdog came in the 2009 SEC Championship Game against Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. The Crimson Tide won that game and went on to beat Texas for the National Championship.

While Georgia is probably the best team in the SEC East, it would only be somewhere around the 4th-best team in the SEC West, and that might be a little generous. I believe Ole Miss is the best team in the SEC West and I said that coming into the season as well. I’m glad they proved me right with their upset win over Alabama, but that loss by the Crimson Tide only has them undervalued here.

I also like the fact that Alabama is more battle-tested coming into this one. Having already played Wisconsin and Ole Miss, it will be ready for this showdown with Georgia. The Bulldogs have only played LA-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern. Well, it’s looking more and more like South Carolina and Vanderbilt are the two worst teams in the SEC. Plus, Georgia only outgained Vanderbilt by 22 total yards in its 31-14 victory. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Commodores racked up 400 yards on this Georgia defense.

I'm on Alabama this week for many of the same reasons I was on the Crimson Tide against Wisconsin in the opener. It's a perfect matchup for them.  The only teams Alabama struggles against are ones with mobile quarterbacks, and Georgia's Greyson Lambert is immobile.  Georgia relies heavily on its running game with Nick Chubb and company, and that plays right into Alabama's hands.

Indeed, Alabama is only giving up 57 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  So, they are holding their opponents to 106 yards and 2.3 per carry less than their season averages.  They've already faced two solid rushing offenses in Wisconsin and Ole Miss.  They held the Badgers to 40 yards on 21 carries and the Rebels to 92 yards on 32 carries.  That's some pretty impressive stuff right there.

Alabama is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 road games following an ATS loss that resulted in a straight up win. The Crimson Tide are 26-12 ATS in their last 28 road games versus good rushing defenses that give up 3.25 or fewer yards per carry. Georgia is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GEORGIA) – off a home win, after the first month of the season are 53-16 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Alabama going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall really has the Crimson Tide undervalued coming into this game.  I still believe this is the second-best team in the SEC, and that will be proven this weekend.  Roll with the Crimson Tide Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +7

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They had one of the best offseason hires in the nation by nabbing former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, who also stepped into a great situation since the Golden Hurricane returned 16 starters.  The early results have been very promising.

The Golden Hurricane beat Florida Atlantic 47-44 in overtime at home in their opener.  They then went on the road and throttled New Mexico 40-21 as 6.5-point underdogs.  Then they gave Oklahoma more than it wanted in a 38-52 road loss at 33.5-point underdogs.  I watched most of that Oklahoma game and came away very impressed with this offense.

It's hard not to be considering Tulsa gained a whopping 603 total yards against a good Oklahoma defense.  Tulsa is averaging 41.7 points and 607.0 yards per game this season already, so Montgomery has clearly taken his offensive genius from Baylor and used it here at Tulsa to perfection.

Dane Evans is having a big senior season already, completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,172 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Golden Hurricane have the best duo of WR's in the AAC in Keyarris Garrett (26, 454, 1 TD) and Keevan Lucas (19, 342, 5 TD).

Houston is also an improved team under former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman.  But Herman didn't step into nearly as good of a situation as the Cougars returned only 11 starters this year.  They are 3-0, but they have faced a very easy schedule with Tennessee Tech, Louisville and Texas State.  They did upset Louisville 34-31 on the road, but that's a Louisville team that is 1-3 right now, so that win is looking worse and worse by the week.

Tulsa has a huge scheduling advantage in this one.  The Golden Hurricane are coming off their first bye of the season, having a full 14 days in between games.  They needed that extra recovery time after the shootout against Oklahoma two weeks ago.  They also should be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after taking one of the best teams in the country in the Sooners right down to the wire.  Meanwhile, Houston played Texas State last week and won't be as prepared or fresh.

Tulsa only lost 28-38 at Houston last season as 19.5-point underdogs.  The Golden Hurricane actually held a 25-21 first down edge in that game, but they only lost due to being -3 in turnover differential.  They gave the ball away three times while the Cougars didn't commit one turnover.  I believe it's revenge time now as this is the best Tulsa team we have seen in quite some time, and they're catching a touchdown at home when they shouldn't be.

Houston is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Tulsa is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  The Golden Hurricane are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Hurricane are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Tulsa is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following a bye week.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +22

I'll continue fading the Michigan State Spartans for the third straight time.  I did so successfully with Air Force +24.5 two weeks ago in a 35-21 Spartans home victory.  I also had Central Michigan +25 last week in a 30-10 Michigan State home win.  I wish I would have gone against the Spartans every week though since they're 0-4 against the spread.

Simply put, Michigan State is the single-most overrated team in the country.  It is ranked No. 2 in the country right now, and that fact alone has the Spartans overvalued.  They are simply laying too many points week in and week out due to their national ranking.  But the numbers show that this team really isn't very good, and may end up being outside of the Top 10 when it's all said and done.

Indeed, the Spartans have been outgained in three of the four games they've played in.  They only outgained Western Michigan by 69 yards in the opener, and then were outgained by 43 yards by Oregon, by 104 yards by Air Force, and by 16 yards by Central Michigan.  That 31-28 win over Oregon is looking worse and worse by the week.

The Spartans are only averaging 372.2 yards per game on offense, and their defense has taken a huge step back this season, allowing 395.7 yards per game thus far.  They are getting outgained by an average of 23.5 yards per game, which is not the sign of a team that should be ranked No. 2 in the country.

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in college football this season.  But that doesn't show up in the Boilermakers' record as they are just 1-3, but that also has them undervalued here.  This team could easily be 3-1 right now instead.

They led Marshall for most of the game before throwing a late pick-6 when they were driving to try and tie it, losing 31-41.  They missed a field goal late that could have beaten Bowling Green last week, but instead gave up a touchdown with only a few seconds remaining to lose 28-35.  That's a very good Bowling Green team, too.

Redshirt freshman David Blough was solid in his first career start against Bowling Green, going 29 of 39 for 340 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He also had a 1-yard TD run.  I believe he is the best starter on the team, and I like the focus of this team even after the tough start.

"We have a good locker room with a ton of leaders," sophomore linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley said. "We know we are not mentally out of it. We are just having execution problems. We have correctable issues that we can control and change."

Purdue has played Michigan State extremely tough through the years, especially here recently.  They have been at least 20.5-point underdogs in each of the last three meetings, and all three were decided by 14 points or less.  They only lost 31-45 as 21-point home dogs to MSU last year, 0-14 as 28-point road dogs in 2013, and 31-35 as 20.5-point road dogs in 2010.

In fact, Purdue hasn't lost to Michigan State by more than 20 points in any of the last 14 meetings.  That's a perfect 14-0 system working in the Boilermakers' favor dating back to 1997 pertaining to this three-touchdown spread.  With this being Darrell Hazell's best team yet, I look for this streak to continue in 2015.  Bet Purdue Saturday

20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn +17.5

The BYU Cougars are now overvalued after their impressive start that saw them upset Nebraska and Boise State and nearly beat UCLA on the road. They went 3-0 against the spread through those first four games and then were only catching a touchdown at Michigan last week. They would lose to the Wolverines 31-0 in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate.

Michigan outgained BYU by a whopping 343 total yards. The Wolverines managed 448 total yards including 254 rushing. They held the Cougars to just 105 yards of total offense as well. Now after playing the toughest schedule in the entire country through the first four weeks of the season, the Cougars are out of gas. They have to play on a short week here, which makes matters worse. I see no way they have enough left in the tank to put away UConn by more than 17.5 points.

Connecticut is a vastly improved team this season under second-year head coach Bob Diaco. It beat one of the best FCS teams in the country in Villanova 20-15 at home despite being 7-point underdogs, which just shows what the oddsmakers thought of the Wildcats. It then beat Army 22-17 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Huskies outgained the Black Knights by 150 total yards.

Perhaps the effort that shows UConn is improved the most is the 6-9 loss at Missouri as 21-point underdogs. The Huskies were only outgained by 37 yards by the Tigers in that game. They were also only outgained by 18 yards against Navy in an 18-28 home loss last week. That’s a Navy team that beat East Carolina 45-21. Well, ECU has beaten Virginia Tech and nearly beat Florida on the road. So clearly that loss to Navy isn’t too bad.

I think this is another week that will show the improvement that UConn has made this season. The Huskies were playing their first game under Diaco when they hosted BYU last season in the 2014 opener. They lost that game 35-10 and were outgained by 158 yards. So, they’re going to want revenge in this game, and now they have the type of team that can hang with BYU a year later.

The reason the Huskies have a chance to keep this game close is because of their defense. They are only giving up 17.2 points and 295.2 yards per game. Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game as it is with the total set at just 44 points. These low-scoring games almost always favor taking the underdog catching big points. BYU would have to win roughly a 31-13 game for the score to match the spread and total. I don’t see BYU scoring more than 31, and I foresee UConn getting past 13.

BYU is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The Cougars are 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a 2-game road trip.  Bet Connecticut Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +115

The Los Angeles Angels are pretty much in must-win mode tonight.  They trail the Houston Astros by one game in the wild card standings after going 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  But they have lost two in a row and really need a win here.

I like their chances with the edge they have on the mound tonight.  Jered Weaver is 7-12 with a 4.76 ERA but a 1.248 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Weaver is 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 36 career starts against Texas.

Martin Perez is the worst starter in Texas' rotation.  He has gone 3-6 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.493 WHIP over 13 starts this year.  Perez lost his last start against the Angels while giving up three earned runs and nine base runners over six innings.

The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.  The Rangers are 6-13 in Perez's last 19 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Angels Friday.

15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3

It’s simply too tough to replace a quarterback the caliber of Ben Roethlisberger. This was the second-best offense in the league last season thanks to Roethlisberger tying Drew Brees for the NFL lead in passing yards. Now he’s expected to miss 4-6 weeks, and the Steelers will turn to Michael Vick for now. Vick was signed just prior to the season and has not had any success in Philadelphia or New York in recent years.

Simply put, this is a must-win situation for the Ravens. The chips are already stacked against them with their 0-3 start, but 0-4 would signal the end of the season. Only three teams have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-3, and only one has made the postseason after an 0-4 start. The Ravens are still talented enough to make a run at it and could be the 4th team to accomplish the feat.

After all, the Ravens could just as easily be 3-0 right now. They have blown three straight leads in the 4th quarter. They led Denver 13-9 before a pick-6 by Joe Flacco that ended up resulting in a 19-13 win by the Broncos. They led the Raiders 33-30 with 2:10 left before giving up a game-winning touchdown with 26 seconds to play. They held a 24-21 lead over the Bengals with 3:56 to go and allowed Cincinnati to march down the field and take a 28-24 lead for good with 2:10 to play.

Baltimore’s three losses this season have come against teams that are a combined 8-1. Pittsburgh’s two wins this year have come against teams that are a combined 2-4. The San Francisco 49ers are obviously terrible, and the St. Louis Rams aren’t a whole lot better. The Steelers only managed 259 total yards against the Rams last week and were really stuck in neutral once Roethlisberger left the game.

Fortunately, the Steelers were able to hold the Rams defensively in that 12-6 victory. But make no mistake about it, this isn’t a very good Steelers defense this season. The Ravens have really gotten their offense on track the last two weeks and will have their way with this defense. They put up 33 points and 493 total yards on the Raiders, and then 24 points and 398 yards against the Bengals. Joe Flacco has thrown for a combined 746 yards the past two weeks. Pittsburgh simply isn’t going to have the firepower to keep up with the Ravens now.

Joe Flacco has thrown for 746 yards and fourth touchdowns in his last two meetings with the Steelers.  Dating back further, Flacco has thrown 13 touchdowns and two interceptions while winning six of the last nine games the Steelers.  The Ravens have won three of the last four meetings in this series, including a 30-17 road win in the playoffs last year.

Baltimore is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following an upset loss as a home favorite. It is coming back to win by an average of 6.2 points per game in this spot. The Ravens are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Ravens Thursday.

15* AL Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels +107

The Los Angeles Angels trail the Houston Astros by 1/2 game for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They would need to sweep the Rangers to win the AL West in this 4-game series.  I look for them to take Game 1 tonight as they simply need it more, plus they have the edge on the mound.

The Angels give the ball to Andrew Heaney, who is having a fine rookie season at 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 17 starts.  Heaney is 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in seven road starts.  He is also 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in one career start against Texas.

Derek Holland hasn't fared nearly as well.  The left-hander is 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.60 ERA and 2.200 WHIP in his last three.  Holland is 7-6 with a 5.37 ERA in 19 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Angels are 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  Los Angeles is 10-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Angels Thursday.

20* Miami/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6.5

It’s clear to me that there is value with the home underdog Bearcats in this one. That’s just based off of these team’s records thus far and how they have done against the spread. Miami is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS through its first three games, which has the betting public backing the Hurricanes here. Cincinnati is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS thus far, and the betting public certainly doesn’t want much to do with them right now.

But Cincinnati is better than its record would indicate and arguably should be 4-0. The Bearcats have put up tremendous statistical numbers to this point. They outgained Alabama A&M by 390 yards in a 52-10 win, they outgained Temple by 261 yards in a 26-34 loss, outgained Miami (Ohio) by 97 yards in a 37-33 win, and outgained Memphis by 182 yards in a 46-53 loss.

The Bearcats are averaging a ridiculous 622.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season on offense. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as advertised, allowing 390.0 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by an average of 232.5 yards per game this year. The problem for the Bearcats has been turnovers as they are -10 in turnover differential already. These poor turnovers teams are almost always undervalued.

Miami has played a pretty favorable schedule during its 3-0 start. It played Bethune-Cookman and Florida Atlantic in its first two games and actually struggled to put away FAU until late. Then it drew Nebraska at home, and with two losses already, the Huskers clearly aren’t as strong of a team as they normally are this year. Plus, Miami is +8 in turnover differential already, and these favorable turnover teams are almost always overvalued.

Cincinnati is going to want revenge from its 34-55 loss at Miami last year. It was -2 in turnovers in that game and let it get away from them. This is also a tough spot for Miami. It is coming off that huge win over Nebraska, and it has its biggest game of the season on deck against Florida State. This is a classing sandwich game for the Hurricanes as they may not bring their best focus given the situation.

Hayden Moore threw for a school-record 557 yards against Memphis last week while coming off the bench to replace an injured Gunner Kiel.  Moore will get the start this week.  "I don't think I've ever seen a performance like that. ... He broke our record here and we've had some quarterbacks that could really throw the football," Cincinnati coach Tommy Tuberville said. "And he did it in three quarters."

Nippert Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Bearcats one of the best home-field advantages in the land.  Cincinnati has won 27 consecutive non-conference games at Nippert Stadium.  The last time they lost one of these came all the way back in 2002.  And they're an underdog?  Give me a break.

Miami is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Cincinnati is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games vs. good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) – in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-116)

The Los Angeles Angels are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games overall and have saved their best for last when these games have mattered most.  They are currently the second wild card in the American League and only two games back of Texas for first place in the AL West.

The Oakland A's packed it in a long time ago.  They are just 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  They are even giving Barry Zito a start tonight just to honor him as this will be his last season.  He gave up four earned runs in two innings of a 10-14 loss to San Francisco in his only start of the season on September 26.

Los Angeles will be giving the ball to one of its best starters tonight in Garrett Richards.  He is 15-11 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 30 starts.  But Richards has been at his best at home, going 10-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 16 starts this year.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs over 19 innings in his last three starts against the A's.

Oakland is 1-12 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Zito is 0-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  His teams are losing by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Richards is 19-3 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last three seasons.  The Angels are winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -161

I'm willing to lay the heavier price with the Los Angeles Angels tonight given the situation.  They are just 1/2 game behind Houston in the wild card and 2 games behind Texas for the AL West lead.

They have put themselves in this position by going 6-0 in their last six games overall to save their best baseball for last.  The A's have already packed it in, going 1-8 in their last nine games overall.  This is a huge motivational mismatch to say the least.

Nick Tropeano has pitched well enough here of late to get the job done.  He's gone 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts.  Chriss Bassitt is 0-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last three starts for the A's.  Tropeano faced the A's once this year on April 23, pitching six shutout innings to get the win in a 2-0 Angels' victory.

The A's are 0-4 in Bassitt's last four starts.  The Angels are 6-0 in their last six games overall.  Los Angeles is 6-0 in its last six vs. AL West opponents.  The Angles are 5-0 in their last five during game 2 of a series.  Los Angeles is 4-0 in its last four home games.  These five trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Angels.  Bet the Angels Tuesday.

20* Chiefs/Packers MNF Side & Total Parlay on Kansas City +7/UNDER 49

Reasons for the Chiefs:

Yes, it’s Monday Night Football so the Packers are going to be up for this game, but this is actually a bit of a letdown spot for them. They are coming off an emotional win over the Seahawks as they got their revenge from the NFC Championship Game loss last year. They certainly won’t be able to match the intensity they played with last week.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They blew their game against the Broncos last Thursday, and that will have them pissed off coming into this one. It also means that they have three extra days of rest than the Packers, which will be an advantage.

This is still a very good Chiefs football team that will have a great shot to win the AFC West this season. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL as they held the Broncos to just 299 total yards last week. Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson are both back from injury this season, making an already stout Chiefs defense even better. This is a stop unit that allowed just 17.6 points per game last year as it is.

Kansas City’s offense is clearly improved this season with the addition of Jeremy Maclin. The Chiefs finally have a true No. 1 receiver, which they haven’t had in years. The early results are promising as the Chiefs are averaging 25.5 points per game. Look for Jamaal Charles to play an inspired game after blowing the game against the Broncos last week with a fumble in the closing seconds that was returned for a touchdown. It was one of five turnovers for the Chiefs, who simply gave that game away.

Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle injury against the Seahawks and is questionable to play this week. Devante Adams is also dealing with an ankle injury, and as you know, Jordy Nelson is likely out for the season with a torn ACL. Tackle Bryan Bulaga will miss 6-8 weeks with a knee injury as well. This isn’t the same explosive Green Bay offense that we saw last year due to all these injuries. But it is getting treated like it from oddsmakers as 7-point favorites here.

The Chiefs are 6-1 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Packers. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games. Andy Reid is 46-25 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

The Chiefs know that their best chance to win this game is to control the ball for the majority of the game and limit the turnovers.  I look for a very conservative game plan from them that revolves and Charles and not making mistakes.  I look for them to execute this game plan well and limit the time of possession.

As mentioned with the reasons for the Chiefs, they have a great defense, and the Packers aren't the same offense they were last year with all of the injuries.  Eddie Lacy and Devante Adams are banged up, while Jordy Nelson and Bryan Bulaga are out.  The Packers had unreal health on offense last season, but now the luck has not been on their side in the early going.

There is value with the UNDER because these teams have combined to go 3-1 to the over through their first four games.  The Chiefs went over in both of their games in a 27-20 win over Houston and a 24-31 loss to Denver.  The Packers went over in a 31-23 win over the Bears and under in a 27-17 win over the Seahawks.  But they only managed 322 total yards against the Bears and should not have scored 31 points.

But the Chiefs aren't the type of team that is going to play in shootouts like that every week.  Those two final scores were more aberrations than anything, especially with the five turnovers the Chiefs committed against the Broncos that led to easy scoring opportunities.  There were two defensive touchdowns in that game, which turned a 41-point game into a 55-point game.  The Packers and Chiefs both won't be giving away non-offensive touchdowns like that this week.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 45-19 (70.3%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Chiefs last 36 games following a ATS loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Chiefs/Packers MNF Side & Total Parlay on Kansas City +7/UNDER 49

Reasons for the Chiefs:

Yes, it’s Monday Night Football so the Packers are going to be up for this game, but this is actually a bit of a letdown spot for them. They are coming off an emotional win over the Seahawks as they got their revenge from the NFC Championship Game loss last year. They certainly won’t be able to match the intensity they played with last week.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They blew their game against the Broncos last Thursday, and that will have them pissed off coming into this one. It also means that they have three extra days of rest than the Packers, which will be an advantage.

This is still a very good Chiefs football team that will have a great shot to win the AFC West this season. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL as they held the Broncos to just 299 total yards last week. Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson are both back from injury this season, making an already stout Chiefs defense even better. This is a stop unit that allowed just 17.6 points per game last year as it is.

Kansas City’s offense is clearly improved this season with the addition of Jeremy Maclin. The Chiefs finally have a true No. 1 receiver, which they haven’t had in years. The early results are promising as the Chiefs are averaging 25.5 points per game. Look for Jamaal Charles to play an inspired game after blowing the game against the Broncos last week with a fumble in the closing seconds that was returned for a touchdown. It was one of five turnovers for the Chiefs, who simply gave that game away.

Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle injury against the Seahawks and is questionable to play this week. Devante Adams is also dealing with an ankle injury, and as you know, Jordy Nelson is likely out for the season with a torn ACL. Tackle Bryan Bulaga will miss 6-8 weeks with a knee injury as well. This isn’t the same explosive Green Bay offense that we saw last year due to all these injuries. But it is getting treated like it from oddsmakers as 7-point favorites here.

The Chiefs are 6-1 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Packers. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games. Andy Reid is 46-25 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

The Chiefs know that their best chance to win this game is to control the ball for the majority of the game and limit the turnovers.  I look for a very conservative game plan from them that revolves and Charles and not making mistakes.  I look for them to execute this game plan well and limit the time of possession.

As mentioned with the reasons for the Chiefs, they have a great defense, and the Packers aren't the same offense they were last year with all of the injuries.  Eddie Lacy and Devante Adams are banged up, while Jordy Nelson and Bryan Bulaga are out.  The Packers had unreal health on offense last season, but now the luck has not been on their side in the early going.

There is value with the UNDER because these teams have combined to go 3-1 to the over through their first four games.  The Chiefs went over in both of their games in a 27-20 win over Houston and a 24-31 loss to Denver.  The Packers went over in a 31-23 win over the Bears and under in a 27-17 win over the Seahawks.  But they only managed 322 total yards against the Bears and should not have scored 31 points.

But the Chiefs aren't the type of team that is going to play in shootouts like that every week.  Those two final scores were more aberrations than anything, especially with the five turnovers the Chiefs committed against the Broncos that led to easy scoring opportunities.  There were two defensive touchdowns in that game, which turned a 41-point game into a 55-point game.  The Packers and Chiefs both won't be giving away non-offensive touchdowns like that this week.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 45-19 (70.3%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Chiefs last 36 games following a ATS loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -128

We're getting the Toronto Blue Jays at a very generous price Monday night.  They hold a 4-game lead over the Yankees in the division and are tied with the Royals for the No. 1 seed in the American League.  There is still work to be done for them.

The Baltimore Orioles are eliminated from postseason contention.  They made a decent run earlier this month, but they have lost three straight coming in.  Not only have they lost three in a row, they were outscored 17-0 by the Red Sox in the process.  The Orioles have clearly packed it in.

Marco Estrada is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 13-8 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 26 starts and 32 relief appearances, including 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his last three starts.  Estrada is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against the Orioles.

I'll gladly fade Chris Tillman tonight.  The right-hander is 10-11 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 29 starts this season.  Tillman is 4-10 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 19 career starts against Toronto.  In his last two starts against the Blue Jays, he has given up 12 earned runs and five homers in 4 1/3 innings.

The Blue Jays are 40-14 in their last 54 overall.  The Orioles are 1-6 in Tillman's last seven starts vs. Blue Jays.  Baltimore is 0-5 in Tillman's last five home starts against Toronto.  Take the Blue Jays Monday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -109
The Los Angeles Angels are only 1/2 game behind the Houston Astros for the final wild card spot in the American League.  It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight.
The Angels are 4-0 in their last four games and will continue their assault on the books behind Jered Weaver.  He is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 10 home starts this year.  Weaver is 14-12 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 33 career starts against Seattle.
The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.  Los Angeles is 48-17 in Weaver's last 65 home starts.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Vikings -2

The Minnesota Vikings were a popular pick to bust through and make the playoffs this year after a 7-9 season last year. I am certainly one of the many on board with this theory. They won seven games without Adrian Peterson last year, and now that they have him for a full season, this team should contend for a playoff berth.

That couldn’t have looked further from the truth when they lost 3-20 at San Francisco in the opener. But they let the offseason hype go to their head, and the 49ers simply wanted that game more after getting bashed by the media all offseason. It was just a very bad spot for the Vikings and not an indication of what to expect in the future.

The Vikings responded in a big way last week with a 26-16 home win over the Detroit Lions. They got back to who they are, which is a ground and pound running team behind the best back in the league in Peterson. They fed the horse 29 times for 134 yards and rushed for 199 yards as a team. Peterson also had two receptions for 58 yards, totaling 192 yards from scrimmage.

Their defense limited the Lions to just 16 points and 323 yards in the win. This is one of the most underrated stop units in the NFL thanks to the guidance of Mike Zimmer, the former Bengals defensive coordinator. He took a Vikings defense that allowed 30 points per game in 2013 to just 21.4 points per game last year. I expect even more improvement this season, and the Vikings haven’t disappointed as they are giving up just 18.0 points per game thus far.

The San Diego Chargers have a solid offense and will challenge the Vikings, but there’s no question that the edge on defense goes to the home team. The Chargers have allowed an average of 26.0 points per game to the Lions and Bengals, who aren’t exactly known as offensive juggernauts. The Bengals shredded them for 389 total yards last week, including 175 on the ground. Peterson has to be licking his chops at the opportunity to face this porous SD run defense.

Minnesota is a sneaky 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home in its last six games at TCF Bank Stadium. In fact, its only loss during this stretch came to the Green Bay Packers by a final of 21-24. That’s not a bad loss at all when you consider they were up against Aaron Rodgers and company, who rarely lose. I think the Vikings have a better home-field advantage than they are getting credit for here.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series, too. The home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up in the last four meetings dating back to 1999.  It's also worth noting that this is another early start for the Chargers.  West Coast teams historically struggle with games that start at 1:00 EST because their body is telling them it's 10:00 AM.  That was the case against Cincinnati last week, and it's the case again this week.

Minnesota is 19-7 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the past three seasons. The Chargers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Vikings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -3

The Indianapolis Colts are undervalued right now because they have started 0-2.  They haven't looked great in doing so, either, losing to the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets by a combined 26 points.  The betting public was all over them the first two weeks, but now they are scared to back the Colts after what they've seen.  That makes this the perfect time to jump on board.

It's not time for panic for the Colts.  After all, they started 0-2 last season, yet managed to win 11 games for the third consecutive year.  They went on to play in the AFC Championship Game.  While I did not agree that the Colts were going to be the best team in the AFC like many did coming into the year, I do still think they are one of the top three teams, and that will show as the season progresses.

The culprit of this 0-2 start is turnovers.  In fact, the Colts have turned the ball over a whopping eight times through two games.  That's a ridiculously high number, but it's not going to continue.  They faced two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Jets and Bills, and now they get to take on a Tennessee defense that's simply not that good.  Andrew Luck will not make the same mistakes he has, and a clean performance will lead to a blowout victory.

The Titans are overvalued right now due to the hype surrounding Marcus Mariota.  He threw four touchdown passes against the Bucs in his first game, which resulted in a 42-14 victory.  But the Titans only manged 309 total yards in that game, which should make it impossible to score 42 points.  The Bucs just kept turning the ball over and giving the Titans easy scores.  I believe Tennessee's true colors showed last week in a 14-28 loss at Cleveland to Johnny Manziel and company.

The Colts have simply owned the Titans in this series.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings dating back to 2011.  They won both meetings last year by a combined score of 68-27.  They outgained the Titans 378-192 in a 27-10 road win on December 28.  They also outgained the Titans 498-261 in a 41-17 home victory on September 28. Another blowout can be expected for the 8th consecutive time in this series.

Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 ATS against division opponents over the last three seasons.  Tennessee is 1-11 ATS following one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Indianapolis is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games following a loss.  Tennessee is 1-10-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* Bengals/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -2.5

The Baltimore Ravens are already in must-win mode in Week 3. They know that teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs just 11 percent of the time. They certainly won’t be going to the postseason if they start 0-3. I look for them to come out with an inspired effort Sunday and to get the win over the Bengals, who can now afford a loss after opening 2-0. They won’t be as motivated as a result.

Baltimore easily could be 2-0 right now. Joe Flacco threw a late pick-6 in the second half that ultimately cost his team the game in a 13-19 loss at Denver. Flacco then engineered what appeared to be the game-winning drive with a field goal with 2:10 remaining against the Raiders, only for the defense to give up the go-ahead touchdown with 26 seconds left to play. It’s certainly a game of inches, and the Ravens have been on the wrong side of these breaks in the early going.

But now the Ravens get to play at home for the first time this season. They are 47-11 in all home games dating back to the start of the 2008 season, which was the first year under John Harbaugh. It’s safe to say that the Ravens have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, but they aren’t known for it. Getting them as less than a field goal favorite at home given the situation is a gift from the oddsmakers.

Baltimore will also be motivated after having lost three straight to the Bengals in this series. It’s payback time Sunday.   Joe Flacco is coming off a big game against the Raiders in which he threw for 384 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in September, going 13-1 in his career as a starter at home in this month.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent years. In fact, the home team is 9-2 straight up the last 11 meetings between these teams. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Ravens are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

15* Falcons/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta -1

This one is about as obvious as it gets folks.  The Dallas Cowboys are simply too banged up right now to win this game.  The Atlanta Falcons are also better than they are getting credit for this season and have already made drastic improvements under first-year head coach Dan Quinn.

Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, DE Randy Gregory, LB Rolando McClain, DE Greg Hardy, DT Terrell McClain and CB Orlando Scandrick are all key players who are missing for Dallas right now.  Jason Witten is also banged up with an ankle injury.  The Cowboys do have a solid defense that can keep them competitive, but I just don't trust in Brandon Weeden to get this offense going.

In their first game without Dez Bryant, the Cowboys were very fortunate to come away with a 20-10 win against the Eagles.  They had a defensive touchdown and capitalized on three Eagles' turnovers.  But their offense only scored 13 points in that game.  Weeden is 5-16 as a starter in the NFL, including eight straight defeats.  He started in place of Romo for one game last year, and the Cowboys lost badly at home to Arizona by a final of 17-28.  His job is a lot harder now without Bryant.

The Falcons beat the Eagles 26-24 at home and then went on the road and topped the Giants 24-20.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season as they are averaging 25.0 points per game and 398.5 yards per game.  Their defense will continue to improve under Quinn, who was the defensive coordinator in Seattle before coming here.  The Falcons are already starting to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks with the additions they made this offseason in Vic Beasley among others.

Jason Garrett is 3-11 ATS in home games off a division game as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 14-24 ATS in all home games as the coach of the Cowboys.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.  Atlanta should be favored by more than a single point given the situation.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +8

This line is inflated now that it has been announced that Drew Brees will sit out this game against the Carolina Panthers.  The value is clearly with the road underdog Saints now.  Also helping out the value is the fact that the Saints are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS, while the Panthers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  Any time this is the case it's usually a good idea to back the 0-2 team because there is inflation in the line.

I refuse to believe that Carolina is a good team.  It went 7-8-1 last year and won the NFC South, and I know it is 2-0 this season, but it easily could have lost its first two games to the Jaguars and Texans.  The Panthers were actually outgained by the Jaguars in their 20-9 road win, and they needed a stop in the red zone to beat the Texans 24-17 in the closing second last week.

Carolina does have a solid defense, but it is likely going to be without its best player in Luke Keuchly (doubtful) again this week. Starting DT Star Lotulelei is also questionable to play with a foot injury.  Defensive end Frank Alexander just suffered a torn Achilles and will miss the remainder of the season as well.  For the time being, this defense is just an average unit at best.

What isn't in question is that Carolina has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The loss of Kelvin Benjamin was huge before the season, but the injuries continue to pile up.  The new No. 1 receiver after Benjamin went out was Jerricho Cotchery, but now he's out this week after suffering an ankle injury last week.  Running back Jonathan Stewart is also banged up with a knee injury and questionable to play Sunday.  The Panthers simply do not have the firepower offensively now to put away the Saints by more than a touchdown.

New Orleans is going to be playing motivated football Sunday.  The Saints know that their season is on the line here because they cannot afford to start 0-3.  They are also going to want revenge from a crucial late-season loss to the Panthers last year in which they were blown out 10-41 at home.  The Saints won the previous meeting 28-10 in Carolina, so clearly home-field advantage doesn't mean a whole lot in this series.

I do have faith that Luke McCown can move the offense just fine this week.  He has made nine starts in his career and has been with the Saints as their backup for each of the last three years.  They have trust in him based on his experience and skill set.  He flashed that in the preseason, completing 24 of 35 passes for 323 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions while often lining up with the first-team offense.  Teammates and head coach Sean Payton have expressed confidence in McCown all week, saying the game plan won't change much with him behind center.

Plays against favorites (CAROLINA) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The road team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings in this series.  Take the Saints Sunday.

15* USC/Arizona State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -5

I still believe the USC Trojans are one of the two best teams in the Pac-12 right alongside Stanford. They are certainly the best team in the loaded Pac-12 South, which says something considering they reside in that division with the likes of UCLA, ASU, Arizona and Utah. It was just a blip on the radar last week with their loss to Stanford, which wanted that game more after losing by a field goal each of the previous two seasons to the Trojans.  That loss will actually have the Trojans refocused and motivated this week.

The Trojans clearly won’t be lacking any motivation anyways, though that loss to Stanford does help. They have lost three of their last four meetings with Arizona State, including a 38-34 home loss last year. ASU scored three touchdowns in the final 3:23 to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.  It’s payback time Saturday night as this is the best team that USC has had since Pete Carroll left. All of the scholarship sanctions are gone, and the Trojans now have a very deep, talented roster.

I have not been impressed one bit with Arizona State this season. It was outgained by 134 yards in its 17-38 loss to Texas A&M in the opener and didn’t look like it even belonged on the same field as the Aggies. Then, the Sun Devils were flat against Cal Poly in a 35-21 home win as 34.5-point favorites, failing to cover by nearly 21 points. They also didn’t cover in a 34-10 home win over New Mexico as 25-point favorites. That was a 24-10 game in the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils scored the final 10 points.

USC features a high-octane offense that is putting up 48.3 points and 557.7 yards per game this season. Cody Kessler is still a Heisman Trophy candidate with the way he’s been playing. Kessler is completing 78.7 percent of his passes for 922 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions to this point. Tre Madden is averaging 7.4 yards per carry, Ronald Jones is averaging 9.4, and Justin Davis is averaging 9.2.

With Kessler's numbers and the jaw-dropping yards-per-carry average of their three top running backs, the Trojans should move the ball at will on this ASU defense.  The Sun Devils have given up at least 178 rushing yards in each of their first three games.  They are allowing 215 yards per game rushing this season.  This defense simply is not very good.

I have not been impressed with Arizona State’s offense one bit, either. It is only averaging 28.7 points and 423.7 yards per game despite playing both Cal Poly and New Mexico, which have horrible defenses. The Sun Devils only managed 291 total yards against Texas A&M in their opener. In what is expected to be a shootout, I simply do not believe the Sun Devils have the firepower to keep up with this high-powered USC attack.

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 20.6 points per game in this spot. This has been a resilient bunch to say the least, and that will be on display Saturday as all of the motivational factors are working in the Trojans’ favor in this one.  Take USC Saturday.

15* Mississippi State/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -3

You're not going to get a better price on Auburn the rest of the season.  Now is the time to buy low on the Tigers after their 21-45 loss at LSU last week, which followed an overtime win over Jacksonville State as 39-point favorites the previous week.  I was very down on Auburn coming into the season unlike most, but now I'm reversing roles here and backing them while everyone else is down on them.

Auburn is making a switch at quarterback this week, and I really believe it's the right move.  There was a lot of hype surrounding Jeremy Johnson coming into the season, but he just hasn't gotten it done with only 473 passing yards and six interceptions in three games.  It was absolutely the right call for head coach Gus Malzahn to bench him this week.

Malzahn is putting his trust in freshman Shaun White, who was the 14th-ranked QB prospect coming out of high school.  Everything I've read about this guy is that he is a winner.  After he has a big game against Mississippi State this week, you're not going to get to back him at this kind of a price again, so now is the time to do so while the price is right.

"I feel like that's best for our offense right now," Malzahn said. "Sean White is a guy that has got a lot of reps. He's responded very well in practice, very well in scrimmages, and I just feel like he needs a shot right now. We've got a lot of confidence in him right now.”

White has participated in two Elite 11 QB camps and also a Nike training camp.  He shined in a 7-on-7 circuit with South Florida Express, a team loaded with elite players.  At a 7-on-7 event in Oregon, he thrived against 160 four-and-five star recruits.

His team, the Field Generals, began the tournament by losing their first game by almost 40 points, but that was a game White didn't play in.  The Field Generals rallied to win the 7-on-7 title after White led them on a last-minute touchdown drive for a 21-14 comeback victory.  That championship carried White, who ended up committing to Auburn two weeks later, a school he didn't have an offer from before coming to Oregon.  He earned MVP honors in that tournament as well as the Elite 11.

What I'm saying is that this guy is good, and it will show right away against a Mississippi State team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Bulldogs are the least-experienced team in the SEC with just 7 returning starters.

They only outgained Southern Miss by 29 yards in a 34-16 win in their opener.  That's a Southern Miss team that was 4-32 over the previous three seasons.  I think that performance just shows that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as they were last season.

The reason they are getting so much respect is because they lost to LSU 21-19, while Auburn lost to LSU 21-45.  But you have to consider that LSU led Mississippi State 21-6 in the fourth quarter.  You also have to consider that Mississippi State played LSU at home, while Auburn played LSU on the road.

Auburn has won five of its last seven meetings with Mississippi State.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings.  Auburn is 6-1 in its last seven home meetings with Mississippi State.  The Tigers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference opponent.  I fully expect the Tigers to play inspired football this weekend after getting bashed all week.  White will be the biggest reason they come out on top.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +25

Ole Miss is coming off the biggest win in college football last week.  It stood toe-to-toe with Alabama and dominated the majority of the game, eventually coming away with a 43-37 victory.  ESPN College Gameday was in Tuscaloosa last week, so the stage couldn't have been bigger or brighter.  Ole Miss stood up to the test and is now the No. 3 ranked team in the country.

But off such an emotional win, it's only human nature for Ole Miss to suffer a letdown this week.  It won't be near as focuses to face Vanderbilt, thinking that it just has to show up to win.  That's the kind of mindset that makes it very difficult to cover massive spreads like this 24.5-point number the oddsmakers have set.  I look for the Commodores to give the Rebels a scare this week.

It's clear to me that Vanderbilt is already one of the most improved teams in the country.  That doesn't show up in the win/loss column because it is just 1-2 on the season.  However, a closer look at the two losses shows that the Commodores really played two fine games and could have won.  They also beat Austin Peay 47-7 last week to get their first win of the season.

In the opener, Vanderbilt lost at home 12-14 to Western Kentucky.  But there's no way the Commodores should have lost that game considering they outgained the Hilltoppers by 147 total yards.  That's the same Western Kentucky team that hung 41 points on Louisiana Tech and 35 points on Indiana this year.  The Commodores held the Hilltoppers to just 247 total yards.

Yes, Vanderbilt also lost at home to Georgia 14-31 as 18-point dogs, but that game was much closer than the final score showed.  The Commodores were only outgained 400-422, or by 22 total yards.  After seeing what Georgia did to South Carolina last week, it's safe to say the Commodores aren't to be taken lightly this year.

It's pretty easy to see why this team is so much better than last year.  They returned 18 starters after having just 10 back last season as they were very young.  Their defense is always good and is again this season, but the improvement on offense has been huge.  They had 400 total yards against Georgia and are averaging 444.7 yards per game.  Despite playing Western Kentucky and Georgia, their defense is only giving up 17.3 points and 271.0 yards per game.

The Commodores finally have a quarterback in Johnny McCray.  He is completing 59.8 percent of his passes for 880 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions this season.  He has also rushed for 124 yards and a score while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He is the type of quarterback that can make plays against this Ole Miss defense, just as he did against Georgia when he threw for 295 yards in that 17-point loss.

Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite.  Plays on road underdogs (VANDERBILT) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -130

The Minnesota Twins are 1.5 games back in the wild card.  They need this game against the second-worst team in the American League in the Detroit Tigers.  I look for their motivation and their edge on the mound to get them a win today.

Tyler Duffey is one of the most talented young arms in the Twins' organization.  he has gone 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three.  One of those came against Detroit on September 14 as he allowed one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of a 7-1 victory.  He has 44 K's in 45 2/3 innings this year.

Aldredo Simon has been awful for the Tigers.  He is 13-10 in spite of a 5.21 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in 29 starts.  Simon has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with an 8.31 ERA and 2.135 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has given up eight earned runs in nine innings in his last two starts against Minnesota this season.

The Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Minnesota is 6-1 in Duffy's last seven starts. The Tigers are 3-7 in Simon's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Twins Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California -3

California is the biggest sleeper to win the Pac-12 this season.  The Golden Bears improved from 1-11 in Sonny Dykes' first season to 5-7 last year, and four of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less to Arizona (45-49), UCLA (34-36), USC (30-38) and BYU (35-42), which were all bowl teams last year.

Dykes returned 17 starters and a whopping 58 lettermen this season.  In fact, this is the most veteran team in the Pac-12 this year with all 22 of their starters either juniors or seniors.  I can't stress enough that it's time to back this team early in the season before all of the value is gone, including this week.

Cal was very impressive in its first two contests, which is no surprise.  Cal beat Grambling 73-14 in the opener and outgained them by 359 total yards.  Then it beat San Diego State 35-7 as 12.5-point home favorites and outgained the Aztecs by 160 total yards.

Cal has had an elite offense over the last two years and it's even better this season, but it's the defense that now makes this team a threat to win the Pac-12.  After being dreadful the past two seasons, the Golden Bears held their first two opponents to an average 10.5 points per game, 311 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  All the talk out of camp was how improved this D was going to be, and that certainly appears to be the case.

That defense did not hold up very well against Texas last week, but you have to consider that this was a 45-24 game before the Golden Bears took their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter.  Texas scored 20 unanswered points in the final period, but missed an extra point that would have forced OT.  But since California did cover the 5-point spread last week, I believe it is being undervalued here.  This team really should be 3-0 ATS if not for that blown lead.  I look for Dykes to use it as a teaching opportunity that you can never let up.

California's offense doesn't let up one bit.  This is probably the most underrated offense in the country led by a potential No. 1 NFL draft pick in Jared Goff.  They are averaging 51.0 points, 563.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  This was a good offense the last two years, too, but now in Goff's third season it's reaching new heights.  Goff is completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 898 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions this year.

Washington is a team in rebuilding mode.  It returned just 9 starters this season and lost four players to the NFL Draft in the first and second rounds.  Back-to-back home wins over Utah State (31-17) and Sacramento State (49-0) has Washington overvalued here, but the betting public sees its 13-16 road loss at Boise State in the opener and doesn't consider that a bad loss.

Well, a closer look at that Boise State game shows that it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Huskies were actually outgained by 158 total yards by the Broncos.  Their offense only mustered 179 total yards and remains a work in progress.  Now the Huskies will be playing their toughest opponent yet in Cal, which has a winning record.  That's significant because despite going 8-6 last season, the Huskies did not beat one team that had a winning record.

It's payback time for Cal this week, too.  The Golden Bears have lost six straight meetings in this series, including a 7-31 home loss last year.  That game was far from the blowout that that the score would indicate as Cal was only outgained 368-384, or by 16 total yards.  With 17 starters back for Cal and 9 back for Washington, it's clear to me that these are two teams heading in opposite directions this season.  That will show up in the final score Saturday.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with California Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +25

This is an awful spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They are coming off two huge wins with their 31-17 win at in-state rival Iowa State and their 27-24 home win over Pittsburgh.  They kicked a 57-yard game-winning field goal as time expired to beat the Panthers last week.

Now, the Hawkeyes will be coming down for their emotional high, especially with the Big Ten opener at Wisconsin next week.  They know that the Big Ten West runs through Wisconsin, so they will clearly be looking ahead to that game.  They won't give North Texas the focus it deserves to cover this massive 25-point spread.

Iowa is not good at covering these huge spread.  The Hawkeyes play a very conservative style and have for years under Kirk Ferentz.  They never seem concerned with running up the score.  They seem to have a way of playing up or down to their competition every week, too.

Yes, they led Illinois State big most of the way in the opener, but they only ended up winning that game 31-14, or by 17 points.  I could see a similar score here.  Last year, all of Iowa's non-conference games were close, too.  They only beat Northern Iowa by 8 at home, Ball State by 4 at home, lost to Iowa State by 3 at home, and beat Pitt by 4 on the road.

You can count on two fingers how many wins Iowa has by more than 24 points over the past four seasons.  They only had one last year and that was a 48-7 win over Northwestern.  They only had one in 2013 and that was a 59-3 win over Western Michigan.  They didn't have one in 2012.  In fact, Iowa has only beaten 2 of its last 49 opponents by more than 24 points.  That's a 47-2 system working in North Texas' favor.

The betting public wants nothing to do with North Texas after an 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS start.  The Mean Green lost to SMU 13-31 on the road in the opener, but SMU had TCU on the ropes in the 4th quarter last week.  They lost to Rice 24-38 at home last week, but that game was closer than the score showed.  They were only outgained by 84 yards.  The Mean Green have committed 7 turnovers in two games and must improve in that department.

North Texas coach Dan McCarney was a former assistant at Iowa.  He was also the head coach at Iowa State for a number of years and faced Kirk Ferentz numerous times.  His familiarity with Ferentz and the Hawks will come in handy here.  It will also serve as extra motivation for McCarney as this game means a little more to him.

Plays against a home team (IOWA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Iowa is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Mean Green are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take North Texas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -1

The Tennessee Vols are the real deal this season and my pick to win the SEC East.  They returned 18 starters this year and Butch Jones had put together back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes.  It has all come to fruition thus far as the Volunteers should be 3-0 had they not blown a 14-point 4th quarter lead to a very good Oklahoma team.

The proof that the Vols have turned the corner will come against Florida this weekend.  They have lost 10 straight meetings with the Gators, so they're obviously going to be about as motivated as a team could ever be.  They came close last year in a 10-9 home loss, which is only going to add fuel to the fire.

Florida is not a good team this year.  Yes, it is 3-0, but it could easily be 1-2 right now.  Florida beat East Carolina 31-24 at home in Week 2 and only outgained the Pirates by 40 yards.  That win really looks bad now when ECU lost to Navy 45-21 last week.  The Gators only outgained Kentucky by 4 total yards in their 14-9 road win last week as well.

Jim McElwain clearly isn't the offensive savior that everyone thought he'd be right away.  The Gators only put up 245 total yards on Kentucky last week.  They aren't going to be able to keep up with this high-powered Tennessee attack that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Since Josh Dobbs took over as the starting quarterback, this Tennessee offense has been rolling.  They have scored 45 or more points in five of his last eight starts, which is a huge number.  They have already hung 55-plus points twice this season.  Their defense is improved this year as well and limited a strong Oklahoma attack to just 348 total yards, in double-overtime no less.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - in conference games, after playing 2 straight non-conference games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Vols are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Gators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored.  Florida is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home games after scoring 14 points or less last game.  The Gators are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Letdown Spot on UMass +28.5

This is the ideal letdown spot for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Not too many folks gave them a chance last week against Georgia Tech as they were home underdogs.  They were determined to prove their naysayers wrong and pulled off the 30-22 upset as they were a dog in most places all week.

Off such an emotional win, this is clearly a letdown spot.  But it's also a lookahead spot because the Fighting Irish travel to face No. 11 Clemson next week.  It's pretty clear to me that the Fighting Irish won't be focused for this game against UMass, and they aren't going to win by more than four touchdowns as a result.

I love fading Notre Dame as a big home favorite.  The Irish are 28-point favorites against the Minutemen, one of the largest point spreads during Brian Kelly's six seasons as Irish coach. No. 11 Notre Dame was 28-point favorites against Purdue last season and won 30-12. The 14th-ranked Irish were 29.5-point favorites against Temple to open the 2013 season and won 28-6. No. 11 Notre Dame also was 24.5-point favorite favorites against Boston College in 2011 and won only 16-14.  That's not a very good track record under Kelly.

UMass only went 3-9 last year and is undervalued in the early going as a result.  But five of its nine losses came by 7 points or less, and it only lost one game by more than 23 points last year.  The Minutemen now have 19 returning starters this year and are a sleeper in the MAC.

After opening with a 14-48 loss at Colorado in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated, the Minutemen showed what they were capable of last week by nearly upsetting Temple.  They lost 23-25 at home as 13.5-point underdogs.  But Temple is obviously a great team with two great wins already over both Penn State and Cincinnati.

No team in the country has been hit harder by injuries than Notre Dame up to this point.  "Certainly we can't afford to lose any more players at key positions: Quarterback, running back, you start to get into true freshmen, and that will be obviously a significant change in what we look like," Kelly said Sunday.

Sophomore safety Drue Tranquill became the sixth player for the Fighting Irish to sustain a season-ending injury when he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee Saturday while celebrating a pass breakup in the end zone against Georgia Tech.

Defensive lineman Jarron Jones was the first to go down in mid-August with a torn medial collateral ligament in his right knee when at the end of a play Notre Dame tackle Mike McGlinchey pushed linebacker Joe Schmidt, who fell in to Jones. Freshman nickel back Shaun Crawford , who had been practicing with the starters, during a one-on-one drill when he was backpedaling, turned and planted and tore his ACL.

Running back Tarean Folston, who led the Irish in rushing last season, tore the ACL in his right knee on his third carry of the season against Texas. Quarterback Malik Zaire fractured his ankle when his leg got trapped under a Virginia player on a run. Tight end Durham Smythe tore the MCL in his right knee in the final minute when a teammate fell into his leg.

One important thing to have when backing big underdogs like this is a good quarterback who can lead the offense to points.  UMass certainly has that in Blake Frohnapfel.  Last year, he threw for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  He has thrown for 618 and four touchdowns with two picks in two games thus far, which is pretty good against defenses the caliber of Temple and Colorado.

Notre Dame is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points.  The Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet UMass Saturday.

25* CFB UPSET GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +7

I backed Connecticut last week and will ride this gravy train again Saturday as it continues to be undervalued.  The Huskies led most of the way against Missouri last week as 21.5-point road underdogs and only lost 9-6 when they went for a fake field goal and the win at the end of the game.

UConn really should be 3-0 against the spread right now, too.  After upsetting one of the best FCS teams in the country in Villanova 20-15 as 6.5-point home dogs, UConn only beat Army 22-17 as 6.5-point home favorites.  But the Huskies outgained Army by 150 total yards and should have won by more.

That game against Missouri was every bit as close as the final score indicated.  The Huskies were only outgained by 37 yards in their 9-6 loss.  Their defense held the Tigers to just 270 yards of offense and is one of the more underrated stop units in the country.  UConn is giving up just 13.7 points, 279.3 yards per game and 4.8 per play.

UConn has been sound against the run, giving up 126 yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  It held Missouri to just 85 yards on 34 carries last week.  Even Army, which usually produces huge rushing totals, could only muster up 180 yards.  That's big because UConn has already faced a triple-option team, so it will know exactly how to stop Navy this week.  That extra preparation the Huskies got for the triple-option cannot be overstated.

Navy is way overvalued here due to blowing out two lesser opponents at home in Colgate and East Carolina.  The Midshipmen are a quality team year in and year out, but they should not be favored by a touchdown on the road against the Huskies.  Their defense gave up 405 total yards to ECU last week, including 325 passing, and that game was much closer than the 45-21 score would indicate.

Connecticut is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 9 or fewer points in its last game.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 50-15 (76.9%) ATS since 1992.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - off a road loss, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS since 1992.  While I'm calling for the upset, I'm taking the +7 here and this play will be graded on the +7.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Central Michigan +27

Michigan State is clearly overvalued this season.  It has opened up 3-0 but 0-3 against the spread.  That hasn't stopped the betting public from backing them, or the oddsmakers from jacking up their lines.  That's especially the case now that they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  These highly-ranked teams are overvalued week in and week out.

Obviously the 3-point win over Oregon was huge, but the other two wins have been far from impressive.  They only beat Western Michigan by 13 as 16.5-point favorites.  They also only beat Air Force by 14 as 24.5-point favorites.  They were actually outgained by 104 yards by Air Force last week, but the Falcons committed 6 personal foul penalties and 3 turnovers, or they actually could have pulled off the upset.  Despite being 3-0, the Spartans are actually getting outgained by 26 yards per game on the season.  That's not the sign of a very good team.

I love fading Big Ten favorites of 20 points or more.  Sure, I'm not going to do this blindly, but I have learned how to pick my spots over time.  Big Ten favorites of 20-plus points went 0-5 against the spread last week.  The Big Ten in general plays a slow, methodical game that tends to lead to defensive battles, which makes it hard for them to cover these big spreads.  Michigan State is no exception.

Central Michigan is flying under the radar this season due to its 1-2 start.  But the Chippewas played an improved Oklahoma State team very tough in the opener, only losing 13-24 as 21-point underdogs.  They were only outgained by 77 yards in that game.  They beat Monmouth by 21 before losing to Syracuse 27-30 (OT) on the road last week.  The Chippewas outplayed the Orange and should have won as they outgained them 520-326 for the game, or by 194 total yards.

I love backing big underdogs with good quarterbacks who can put up points on offense because you're never out of it when this is the case.  Well, Cooper Rush is the real deal this season.  He is completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 983 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions through three games.  Plus, the Chippewas have been better defensively than they are getting credit for here.  They are only giving up 309 yards per game this season, and holding Oklahoma State to 24 points is no small feat.

Just like Air Force and Western Michigan, which are two comparable teams to Central Michigan, the Chippewas will hang with the Spartans this week.  The Chippewas are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 games following a ATS win.  Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games, 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss, 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Chippewas.  Take Central Michigan Saturday.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Indians -114

The Kansas City Royals are in a massive letdown spot here.  You rarely find these spots in baseball like other sports, but this is certainly one of them.  The Royals just clinched their first division title since 1985!  There's no doubt they partied hard last night and won't show up ready to play this game against Cleveland.

The Indians are still alive for the final wild card spot in the American League thanks to their 6-3 win over the Twins yesterday.  At 4 games out, it's an uphill climb, but they are still plugging away and have not packed it in.

I'll gladly back one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Carlos Carrasco, who is 13-11 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 28 starts with 196 strikeouts in 171 2/3 innings.  Carrasco has been at his best on the road, going 8-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.921 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.

Carrasco is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts against Kansas City in 2015.  Edinson Volquez is 2-3 with an 8.87 ERA and 2.301 WHIP in six career starts against Cleveland.  He is also 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts coming into this one.

Carrasco is 9-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.  The Indians are 12-2 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series.  Cleveland is 6-0 in Carrasco's last six starts during Game 1 of a series.  The Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.  Kansas City is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win.  These five trends combine for a 40-4 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Indians Friday.

20* Boise State/Virginia ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 49

I don’t have a real good feel for the side in this game. I believe Boise State being a small favorite is about right. I just don’t really trust either of these teams to win this game in what is essentially a pick ’em. But I do see some value in the total as I believe this is going to be a low-scoring affair.

Virginia has been a pretty good defensive team through the years with little offense. That’s the case in 2015 as its offense is sub-par once again, while its defense is better than the numbers show up to this point. The Cavaliers have played two high-powered offenses in Notre Dame and UCLA, so thus it is giving up 445 yards per game through three games.

The Cavaliers have not fared very well offensively in the early going. They are only putting up 375 total yards per game and only managed 373 against William & Mary last week. This is an offense that put up 374 yards per game last season and doesn’t look to be any better, especially with so many losses and only five starters back.

Boise State is no longer an elite offensive team. It lost its two best players on offense from last year in RB Jay Ajayi and QB Grand Hedrick. Now, starting QB Ryan Finley is out with an ankle injury, and this offense is really in trouble. The Broncos only managed 16 points against Washington in their opener and 24 against a suspect BYU defense. Sure, they racked up 52 points on Idaho State last week, but that’s far from impressive.

The Broncos are much more reliant on their defense this season than they have been in year’s past. That’s a pretty good unit to rely on when you consider the Broncos returned eight starters on that side of the ball. They held Washington to just 179 total yards, BYU to a respectable 381 total yards, and Idaho State to 298 yards. They are only giving up 16.0 points, 286 yards per game and 4.2 per play this season.

Virginia is 40-14 UNDER versus good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry since 1992.  Virginia is 41-16 UNDER versus good defensive teams that give up 310 or fewer yards per game since 1992.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 10 home games off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (BOISE ST) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 50-19 (72.5%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.