15* Oklahoma/Okie State ESPN Rivalry Play on Oklahoma +3

The Oklahoma Sooners should not be a dog today to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Sure, the Cowboys will be out for revenge from their 76-88 loss at Oklahoma on January 27, but it won't matter.

Oklahoma State has been overrated all season. It has lost five straight games coming into this one, and now it without its best player in Marcus Smart. In their first game without Smart, the Cowboys were rolled at Texas by a final of 68-87. They just aren't the same without him.

I have no doubt the Sooners will be 100% focused in this game despite already beating the Cowboys once this season. That's because they have lost three of their last four games coming into this contest, including two painfully close road losses at Iowa State (75-81) & WVU (75-81). They bounce back in a big way today.

The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Oklahoma is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 Saturday games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a S.U. loss. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Okie State is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +10.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will be out for revenge from their 62-73 home loss to Iowa State in their Big 12 opener on January 4. I like their chances of staying within double-digits considering how well they have played since.

Texas Tech has not lost one game by more than 9 points since that defeat against ISU. It has gone on the road and beaten Oklahoma, while also topping Baylor and Oklahoma State at home during this stretch. Tubby Smith has this team playing very good basketball having won three in a row coming in.

Iowa State has been excellent fade material in Big 12 play as it has consistently been overvalued. In fact, the Cyclones are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they are being overvalued once again as a double-digits favorite this afternoon.

The Cyclones are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games versus excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games dating back to 1997. The Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +8

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (10-14) have been a very competitive team this season under first-year head coach Eddie Jordan. I like what I've seen from them against some quality teams, and I have no doubt they'll give the SMU Mustangs a run for their money tonight.

Rutgers has won two of its last three in blowout fashion with a 93-70 home win over Houston, and a 79-69 triumph at South Florida. This is a team that played Louisville tough at home, losing by a final of 76-83 as a 14.5-point underdog.

SMU just moved into the top 25 after its first win over a Top 10 opponent since 1987. Fans stormed the court after the win over Cincinnati, and I enjoyed it as well as I was on the Mustangs in that game. Now, it's time to shift gears and fade them in a horrible spot.

The Mustangs are in line for a massive letdown tonight at Rutgers off such a big win that led to a national ranking. They have also had to deal with travel after this game was postponed, and it's not a short trip from SMU to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights will be out for revenge from their 56-70 loss at SMU on January 21 in their first meeting of the season as well.

SMU is just 4-4 in true road games this season, while Rutgers is 9-7 at home. The Scarlet Knights have been covering machines at home of late, going 5-1 ATS in their last six home contests. Bet Rutgers Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5

The Utah Utes (16-7) are one of the most improved teams in the country. With a big finish to the regular season, they could be finding themselves in the NCAA Tournament. That means not losing games like this to USC (10-13).

Sure, Utah is 0-6 on the road this season compared to 15-1 at home, but a closer look shows that it has played well on the road. Amazingly, all six of its road losses this season have come by single-digits, including five by 4 points or fewer.

The Utes lost at Boise State (67-69) as a 10-point dog, at Washington (57-59), at Washington State (46-49), at Arizona State (75-79), at Arizona (56-65) as a 13-point dog and at Colorado (75-79). None of those were really bad losses with the exception of maybe Washington State.

The reason I like the Utes to break through and get that first road win is because I believe USC has packed it in. It has lost nine of its last 10 games overall and really has nothing to play for. It is also coming off a 73-83 home loss to arch rival UCLA, which could lead to a hangover effect here.

Utah absolutely crushed USC in their first meeting of the season by a final of 84-66, forcing 17 turnovers while only giving it away 8 times. While I usually look for teams in revenge spots, I don't believe that will be a factor here because this isn't much of a rivalry. The state of the teams with Utah playing for the big dance and USC packing it in also eliminates the revenge factor in my opinion.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (USC) off three straight losses to conference opponents and trying to revenge a same season loss are 106-50 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Utes are 40-15 ATS in their last 57 games overall.

Utah is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years. The Utes are 14-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. Utah is 8-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last two years. These three trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Utes. Take Utah Thursday.

15* Nets/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 185

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between the Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls tonight. This is their final game before the All-Star Break, so I full expect both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively. They are also becoming rivals, which will add to the defensive intensity.

The Bulls and Nets met in the playoffs last season as Chicago won in seven games by going on the road in Game 7 and coming away with a victory. They also won the first meeting this season by a final of 95-78 on the road. Obviously, these teams are very familiar with each other, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Playing low-scoring games is nothing new to Chicago. It is combining with its opponents for an average of 185.0 points per game on the season, including 183.6 points per game at home. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulls rank 28th in the NBA in pace, averaging 93.1 possessions per game. Brooklyn also likes to slow it down, ranking 26th n pace at 94.0 possessions per game. That means this contest is likely to be played at a snail's pace, which will certainly favor the UNDER.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Bulls last nine games overall. They have combined with their last nine opponents for 185, 178, 189, 193, 169, 167, 182, 181, and 176 points, respectively. As you can see, they have combined for 185 or less in seven of them, and the only two opponents that went over that number were the Warriors and Suns, who each like to play at a fast pace.

Chicago is 23-8 to the UNDER when playing a team with a losing record this season. The Bulls are 21-7 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this year. The UNDER is 13-4 in Bulls last 17 home games. The UNDER is 26-10-1 in Bulls last 37 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* College Basketball DOG OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +15

The Michigan State Spartans have no business being this heavily favored over the Northwestern Wildcats tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the dog in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

The Spartans aren't at full strength right now, yet they're being treated like they're one of the best teams in the country, which simply isn't the case at this point. That's because they are without two of their best players in Keith Appling (15.0 ppg, 4.9 apg) and Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg).

This isn't a very deep Spartans team, so these two losses are absolutely huge. That has shown in recent games as Michigan State has lost three of its last five games overall. One of its wins came by two points over Iowa, and the other was a 15-point home win over Penn State.

Northwestern is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now. It has won four of its last six games overall, which includes outright road victories over Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point dog, Wisconsin (65-56) as a 17-point dog, and Minnesota (55-54) as a 10.5-point dog.

The Wildcats will be out for revenge from a 40-54 home loss to Michigan State on January 15 in their first meeting of the season. They have played tough in recent trips to Michigan State, going 1-3 in their last four visits while not losing once by more than 10 points.

Northwestern is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings at Michigan State. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Bet Northwestern Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9

The Washington Wizards (25-26) will be highly motivated to get back to .500 in time for the All-Star Break. The only way to do that is to go into Houston and beat the Rockets tonight. I like their chances of keeping this one close and potentially pulling off the upset in the end.

Washington simply does not get blown out. Each of its last eight losses have been by 7 points or fewer. You have to go all the way back to January 10 at Indiana to find the last time that the Wizards were blown out. One of those 7-point losses was a 107-114 setback at home to the Rockets, which places the Wizards in revenge mode heading into their second and final meeting of the season.

Houston is simply overvalued right now due to having won six straight games heading into this contest. Considering the closely-contested nature of this series, there's no question that Houston is laying too many points. Nine of the last 10 meetings between the Rockets and Wizards have been decided by 8 points or fewer. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

Washington is 12-3 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 99-plus points per game this season. The Wizards are 55-35 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Washington is 12-2 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the last two years. The Wizards are 23-7 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +9.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been much more competitive this season under first-year head coach Tubby Smith. The cupboard certainly wasn't bare for Smith with four returning starters from last year, but he has done a good job in leading them to a 12-11 mark to this point.

Texas Tech has literally had a chance to win every one of its Big 12 games this season. It has gone 4-6 within the conference with all six losses coming by 11 points or fewer, and five by 9 points or less. That includes road losses at Texas (64-67), WVU (81-87) and Kansas State (58-66).

Tech lost its first meeting with Oklahoma by a final of 65-74 at home on January 25. That defeat places the Red Raiders in revenge mode, and it could also have Oklahoma overlooking them. That's especially the case with a big game against in-state rival Oklahoma State on deck.

The Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 14-2 system backing the Red Raiders. Take Texas Tech Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +14

The DePaul Blue Demons (10-14) continue to fight despite their poor record. They have covered two of their last three against the spread with a 72-77 home loss to Providence as a 6-point dog, and a rather impressive 66-78 road loss at Creighton as a 20-point dog.

The Blue Demons are simply undervalued tonight as the betting public wants nothing to do with this team. They'll be out for revenge from a 62-88 road loss at Villanova in their first meeting of the season. This was a 24-33 game at half before the Wildcats blew it open after intermission. They shot 55.4% that day, and there's no chance they shoot that well again.

Villanova (21-2) is overvalued right now due to its record. This is a very tough spot for the Wildcats, who won't be able to get up for DePaul after already crushing the Blue Demons once this season. That's especially the case with a massive game on deck at Creighton this weekend that could determine the Big East champ. The Wildcats will be looking ahead to that contest.

Plays against of 10 to 19.5 points (VILLANOVA) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1997. Villanova is 18-34 ATS in its last 52 road games after having covered three of its last four games ATS. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Roll with DePaul Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -5.5

The New York Knicks (20-31) have a terrible record, but the fact of the matter is that they are just 2.5 games behind the Charlotte Bobcats for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They want to go into the All-Star Break the right way with an emphatic win over Sacramento tonight.

The Knicks are playing much better of late having won five of their last nine games overall. The same cannot be said for Sacramento, which has lost 10 of its last 12 overall, including three straight by 9-plus points. The Kings have lost seven in a row as the visitor, and they seemed to already be looking forward to the All-Star break after Tuesday's 109-99 defeat in Cleveland.

"The effort wasn't there," said center DeMarcus Cousins, who had 21 points and 10 rebounds. "It was just bad overall. I don't really have an answer, but whatever it is, it needs to be fixed. After the All-Star break, we'll start fresh, which is what we need right now."

The Knicks have won their last two home meetings with the Kings in blowout fashion by finals of 120-81 and 100-85. New York is 25-11 ATS when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Memphis Grizzlies are showing tremendous value as only a 1-point favorite over the Orlando Magic Wednesday. This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as we head into the All-Star Break.

Memphis (28-23) sits in 9th place in the Western Conference, two games behind the Dallas Mavericks for the 8th and final playoff spot. That means it will be lacking no motivation in this game as it wants to go into the All-Star Break on a positive note off last night's 92-89 win over Washington.

Orlando (16-37) is WAY overvalued right now due to winning three straight games coming into this one. The last two of those victories came against Oklahoma City and Indiana by a single point each. Clearly, the Thunder and Pacers were overlooking the Magic. Memphis won't be doing the same tonight given the situation. Orlando is in a letdown spot off those two huge wins as well.

Memphis has owned Orlando, winning five straight meetings in this series. That includes a 108-82 road victory in its last visit to Orlando. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Memphis is 24-11-1 ATS in its last 36 games when its starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Magic are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on George Mason +11

George Mason (8-15) is one of the most underrated teams in the country due to its record. A closer look shows that this team has simply fallen victim to bad luck in close games. In fact, 10 of its 15 losses have come by 6 points or less this season.

That includes narrow road losses to very good teams in Princeton (66-71), Oregon State (54-58) and Saint Louis (81-87), as well as close home losses to the likes of St. Josephs (80-84), UMass (87-88) and George Washington (69-75).

Having lost by a single point to the Minutemen in their first meeting this season, I look for George Mason to be out for revenge in this one. It clearly has not quit on the season having won at Duquesne 74-68 last time out. It will relish playing the role of spoiler tonight.

George Mason is 6-0 ATS in February road games over the last two seasons, winning by 9.5 points per game. UMass is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games as a home favorite of 10 or more points. The Minutemen have bigger games coming up at George Washington and VCU in their next two, and having already beaten the Patriots, they will be overlooking them tonight. Bet George Mason Wednesday.

15* Syracuse/Pitt ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -2

Tonight is the night when Syracuse suffers its first taste of defeat for the 2013-14 season. It has been a nice run, but I strongly believe it comes to an end. Oddsmakers have pegged Pittsburgh as the favorite for a reason, and this line continues to rise for a reason.

Pittsburgh has one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball, and you can bet it will be rocking tonight. The Panthers are 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.5 points per game.

The Panthers will be in revenge mode following a 54-59 road loss at Syracuse on January 18 in their first meeting of the season. The Panthers shot just 38.3% from the field and 56.5% from the line in that game, while Syracuse shot 51.2% and 72.2%, respectively.

It's a miracle that the Panthers were able to hang tough despite those disparities, but they did so by outrebounding the Orange 35-24 for the game, including 12-4 on the offensive glass. There's no way the Panthers shoot that poorly again, and I still expect them to dominate the glass, which will be the difference as to why they get payback at home this time around.

Syracuse is 6-15 ATS after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games over the last three seasons. Pittsburgh is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games off two straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 37% or less. The Panthers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven home meetings. Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to lack the respect they deserve tonight as only a 1-point home favorite over the Oklahoma City Thunder. At 36-15 on the season, they trail the Thunder by just 4 games for the top spot in the Western Conference.

That makes this a very important game for them heading into the All-Star Break. They have taken two of the first three meetings with the Thunder this season, so another win tonight would give them the tiebreaker if it came down to it. You can bet the Blazers will be up for this game because of it.

Portland has one of the best home-court advantages in the league. It is 19-5 at home this season, and these are some of the best fans the league has to offer when the Blazers are actually a good team. Oklahoma City has lost its last two road games to Washington (81-96) and Orlando (102-103) to cool off after going on a big tear, which is the reason it is overvalued here.

The Blazers are 12-4 ATS when revenging a loss in which opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Portland is 15-6 ATS after covering three of its last four against the spread this season. The favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series. Roll with the Blazers Tuesday.

20* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes opened 15-0 this season and were clearly overvalued at that point. They went on to lose five of their next six by 10 points or less, and at the end of that stretch they were undervalued. That was evident when they went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, which includes wins at Wisconsin and at Iowa.

I believe the Buckeyes remain undervalued as only a 3.5-point favorite over Michigan tonight. I have no doubt that Ohio State is the better team in this one. Considering it is 14-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per game, I'll gladly back it at this generous price.

Michigan was undervalued for most of the season. It opened a perfect 8-0 in Big Ten play, which was certainly overachieving. Six of those wins came by single-digits. I believe the true Michigan has shown over the past couple weeks as it has gone 1-2 with blowout losses at Indiana (52-63) and at Iowa (67-85). Despite its record, I have no doubt the Wolverines are no more than a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Ten, while Ohio State is better than its conference record would indicate.

Ohio State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Michigan. The Wolverines are 0-8 ATS in road games when playing their third game in a week over the last three seasons, losing by 10.0 points per game in this spot. The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS after a game committing 8 or fewer turnovers this season. These last two trends combined for a 14-0 system backing the home team. Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers PK

Despite being just 18-33 on the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers are only four games out of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Because of this fact, they are pushing hard here right before the All-Star Break to try and close the gap.

The Cavaliers have won back-to-back games over playoff contenders in Washington and Memphis heading into this contest. What really lit a spark under this team was a poor performance against the Lakers when they only had four players left due to fouls and injuries, as well as the firing of general manager Chris Grant.

"I think it woke up a lot of people," said Dion Waiters, who combined for 42 points in the last two games after totaling six points in his previous two contests. "Me, I felt half of that was my fault, how we played. We just didn't come out right as a unit. I think it cost the man his job. If we had been playing the way we have the last two games he'd probably still be here. We can't dwell on the past, we've got to continue to play the way we've been playing and keep it up."

The Cavaliers will also be motivated to avenge their worst loss of the season, an 80-124 loss at Sacramento on January 12. I like their chances considering the Kings have lost nine of 11 overall and six straight on the road coming into this contest. This is a team that has nothing to play for but pride, and is just looking forward to getting to the All-Star Break.

Sacramento is 13-26 ATS off two straight games with 19 or less assists over the last three seasons. The Kings are 23-47 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days over the last three years. Mike Brown is 90-60 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games in all games he has coached. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Pacers UNDER 199.5

The Indiana Pacers are going to be highly motivated for a victory after getting outscored 29-18 in the fourth quarter to lose to the Orlando Magic by a final of 93-92 Sunday. I look for their motivation to show on the defensive end as they look to shut down Denver's high-powered offense.

Adding to the motivation for the Pacers is the fact that they lost the first meeting of the season with Denver on the road by a final of 109-96. They have only allowed 100-plus points 11 times this season, including three times at home.

The Pacers are the best defensive team in the league, ranking 1st in defensive efficiency at 94.0 points per 100 possessions. They give up a mere 85.8 points per game on 39.6% shooting at home. The Pacers' job will be much easier tonight with leading scorer Ty Lawson (18.0 ppg, 8.8 apg) listed as doubtful with a rib injury. The Nuggets are lost offensively without him.

Indiana is 11-3 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Pacers are 28-14 to the UNDER as a favorite this year. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Pacers last eight vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last six when playing on 0 days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Raptors UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New Orleans Pelicans and Toronto Raptors. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle tonight.

Both of these teams prefer to slow it down and play in the half court. In fact, Toronto and New Orleans are tied for 22nd in the league in pace at 94.7 possessions per game. Toronto ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, giving up only 101.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Pelicans have been forced to play at an even slow pace since losing two of their best players to injury. Starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) remain out. Tyreke Evans (12.4 ppg) is questionable to play tonight as well.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent years, and I look for it to remain that way in 2013-14. Toronto and New Orleans have combined for 191 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings. The only one that went over that mark went to overtime in a game that was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation. So, not counting overtime, the last six meetings since 2009 have seen 191 or fewer points at the end of regulation.

Toronto is 23-6 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. New Orleans is 22-6 to the UNDER after trailing its previous game by 20-plus points at the half since 1996. The Pelicans are 16-7 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country at 18-4 this season. They aren't exactly being treated like it as only a 1.5-point road favorite over West Virginia (14-10), which is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big 12.

A big reason for that is the fact that Iowa State has really cooled off ATS after a hot streak. In fact, it has gone just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall. That has the betting public off of the Cyclones due to a terrible run ATS, and now is the time to pounce on them at a great price.

West Virginia has been playing much better basketball of late, but remember, it lost its first two home games to Texas and Oklahoma State. It is also coming off a deflating 69-83 loss at Kansas on Saturday in a game that was close until the end. I look for the Mountaineers to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat just two days ago.

Iowa State is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread. The Cyclones are 33-19 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a week over the last three seasons.

This will be Iowa State's 2nd game in 7 days, while this will be WVU's 3rd game in 6 days. The rest edge favors the Cyclones big-time. West Virginia is 9-23-1 ATS in its last 33 home games, and 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss. Roll with Iowa State Monday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's +3

The St. John's Red Storm are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won five of their last six games overall to get to 14-9 on the season and right back in the thick of the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Their have beaten the likes of Butler and Providence on the road. Their only loss during this stretch came at Creighton by a final of 60-63 as a 12.5-point underdog as Doug McDermott his a game-winner just before the buzzer. That places St. John's in revenge mode tonight at home this time around.

The amazing part about the fact that St. John's only lost by 3 in the first meeting is that they were killed in shooting. Creighton shot 48.9% from the field and 7-of-16 (43.7%) from 3-point range. The Red Storm shot 42.9% from the field and 1-of-10 (10%) from distance. Look for those numbers to be reversed this time around.

St. John's is 10-3 at home this season. The Bluejays are 1-8 ATS in February games over the last two years. Creighton is 1-9 ATS after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games over the last two years. The Red Storm are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take St. John's Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +15

Once again, the Arizona Wildcats are way overvalued tonight. They are 21-1 on the season, and as a result, the betting public has been all over them. This has forced oddsmakers to inflate their lines, and I've been taking advantage of late.

I faded Arizona successfully with Utah +14 in a 56-65 loss at Arizona on January 26. Then, I released my Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon +11 on February 6 in a 65-67 road loss last time out. Once again, the books continue to give the Wildcats too much respect tonight.

One reason why Arizona will not be as strong as it was in the first half of the season is the fact that it lost one of its best players just two games ago. Brandon Ashley (11.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg) shoots 52.2 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from 3-point range. He'll be missed as he's been lost for the season due to injury.

Oregon State is a team of a similar talent level to both Utah and Oregon, and it is certainly capable of staying within double-digits tonight, let alone 15 points. This team has won four of its last six games to get to 13-9 on the season, which includes a 71-67 victory over UCLA, and an 80-72 triumph over Oregon.

Looking at Oregon State's losses, it's easy to see that this team is very competitive. In fact, all nine of the Beavers' losses have come by 12 points or less, so essentially they nave been in every game they have played. All five of their Pac-12 losses came by 11 points or fewer.

This has been a very closely-contested series throughout the years as well. Indeed, each of the last nine meetings between Oregon State and Arizona were decided by 11 points or fewer, and six of those were settled by single-digits.

Oregon State is 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons. Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Beavers. Bet Oregon State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Cavaliers UNDER 186

I'm going to back the UNDER in this contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The books have certainly set the bar too high, and I'll take advantage.

Memphis is 11-2 to the UNDER in its last 13 games overall. It has failed to score 100 points in any of those 13 games, but it has allowed 95 points or fewer in 12 of them. This team has always lacked an offense, but it is one of the best defensive clubs in the league.

One reason Memphis' offense is lacking is that it is without leading scorer and floor genera, Mike Conley (18.0 ppg, 6.3 ap). It does not have a true point guard to run the offense without Conley, so easy buckets are tough to come by. The offense has to be exclusively ran through Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph down low.

Both teams play at slow paces. Memphis ranks last in the league in pace at 92.1 possessions per game. Cleveland ranks in a tie for 18th in pace at 95.8 possessions per game. I look for this game to be played at a snail's pace because of it.

Memphis is 13-2 to the UNDER after allowing 80 points or less over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last seven road games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 games following a win. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four games following a win. These five trends combine for a 41-4 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Magic UNDER 190

The Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic will take part in a defensive battle Sunday. This will be their third meeting of the season, and familiarity breeds defense. The more familiar you are with your opponent, the tougher it is to score.

This has been a very low-scoring series of late. The last three meetings have seen 184 or less combined points with combined finals of 177, 184 and 168 points. That's an average combined point total of 176.3 points per game, which is nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league, yielding just 90.7 points per game. It ranks 1st in defensive efficiency by a landslide, yielding only 94.0 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers rank just 18th in pace at 95.8 possessions per game, which is one of the keys to their success defensively as they prefer to slow it down.

The Pacers are a super 18-4 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Indiana is 27-14 to the UNDER as a favorite this year. Orlando is 51-28 to the UNDER in its last 79 games after giving up five or less offensive rebounds. The UNDER is 8-1 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 18-8-1 in Magic last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Clemson/Syracuse ESPNU No-Brainer on Clemson +14

The Syracuse Orange have been undervalued for much of the season. They opened 12-4 ATS in their first 16 lined games. However, due to being 22-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country, this team is starting to prove to be overvalued at this point in the season.

The Orange have a massive target on their back, and they have failed to cover in their last two games because of it. They beat Duke 91-89 in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite, and edged Notre Dame 61-55 as an 11.5-point home favorite in a sloppy performance.

Syracuse is obviously starting to hear how it is the best team in the country, and it is going to these players' heads. With an even bigger game against Pittsburgh on deck Wednesday, the Orange could easily be overlooking Clemson in this one.

Clemson (15-6) is one of the most improved teams in the country, and it could really use a signature win here to make the big dance. The Tigers have won five of their last seven ACC games overall, which includes a home win over Duke (72-59) and a road win at Florida State (53-49) to prove what they are capable of.

The Tigers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Syracuse is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games. The Orange are 54-92 ATS in home games when playing its second game in a week since 1997. Brad Brownell is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 road games after scoring 60 points or less in two straight games in all games he has coached. Roll with Clemson Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +9.5

The Utah Jazz are showing tremendous value as a 9.5-point home underdog tonight to the Miami Heat. Asking the Heat to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

Utah is undervalued right now due to its four straight losses coming in, including three in a row via blowout against playoff contenders in the Clippers, Raptors and Mavericks. These recent results have forced oddsmakers to inflate this line knowing that the betting public will be all over Miami.

The Heat have a way of playing to the level of their competition. They get up for the games against playoff contenders, but they have a hard time getting motivated to face teams out of the playoff race. It's understandable considering they have won back-to-back championships, so they pick and choose when they want to show up.

Utah has played Miami very tough at home in recent years. In fact, the Jazz have won three of their past four home meetings in this series, including back-to-back outright wins as an underdog with a 104-97 triumph in 2012-13, and a 99-98 victory in 2011-12. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Miami is 6-14 ATS after scoring 105 or more points this season. Utah 15-3 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five games against the spread over the last three seasons. The Heat are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win. Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -3

The SMU Mustangs are one of the sleeper teams in college basketball this season under legendary coach Larry Brown. They returned all five starters from last season and are primed to make the NCAA Tournament after an 18-5 start to the 2013-14 campaign.

I have seen enough from the Mustangs to know that this is one of the better teams in the country. Home wins over the likes of Memphis (87-82) and Connecticut (74-65) have proven that. Plus, they have played two of the best teams in the country in Cincinnati (57-65) and Louisville (63-71) tough in road losses.

Now, SMU gets a shot at revenge against the Bearcats at home this time around. It is a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game. The Bearcats come in overvalued due to their current 15-game winning streak. Each of their last four wins have come by 5 points or less, so they've simply been fortunate in close games. That streak comes to an end today in emphatic fashion.

Plays against any team (CINCINNATI) - off two consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against opponent off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS since 1997. The Bearcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. Roll with SMU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost each of their last two games on the road in heartbreaking fashion on the road to Iowa State (75-81) and West Virginia (86-91, OT). I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight.

Oklahoma (17-6) remains one of the most underrated teams in the country. It has taken care of business at home this year, going 10-2 while winning by 9.6 points per game. They have also beaten Texas and Baylor on the road, and Oklahoma State and Iowa State at home.

Baylor is in a world of hurt right now. Simply put, this team came into the season overrated. The Bears have lost six of their last seven games overall, including a deflating 52-69 home loss to Kansas last time out. Five of their seven Big 12 losses have come by double-digits, so they've rarely been competitive.

The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in Saturday games this season. Baylor is 2-11 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Sooners are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 meetings with Baylor. Take Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Michigan/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes obviously want revenge from their 77-85 loss to the Wolverines roughly two weeks ago in Ann Arbor on January 22. They get them at home this time around, and despite their recent struggles here, the Hawkeyes have one of the best home-court advantages in the Big Ten.

Iowa is 11-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 23.2 points per game. Michigan is just 4-3 in true road games this season, and it lost 52-63 in its last road game at Indiana. The Wolverines are simply overvalued right now due to their fast start in the Big Ten.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings between Iowa and Michigan. Dating back further, the home team is a superb 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Iowa is 16-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 home games. Iowa is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a S.U. loss.

Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week. The Hawkeyes are 9-0 ATS off two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons. The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly been playing some of the best basketball in the league over the last couple of weeks to keep themselves alive in the playoff hunt. They have done so without two of their best players in Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday.

Indeed, the Pelicans have won five of their last seven games overall with their lone losses coming at Minnesota and at home against San Antonio. They have beaten playoff contenders like Chicago and Atlanta during this stretch. They are clearly undervalued, which has shown with their 9-4 ATS mark in their last 13 games overall.

New Orleans is playing with double-revenging having lost both meetings with Minnesota this season, though both of those came on the road. The Timberwolves are 10-16 on the road this season. They will be without Nikola Pekovic (18.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg) tonight, and they could be without Kevin Love (25.6 ppg, 13.2 rpg), who is questionable with a neck injury.

The Timberwolves are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +1.5

The New York Knicks are in need of a victory tonight after losing three straight to drop to 19-30 on the season. Fortunately, they play in the Eastern Conference so they are not too far out of the playoff hunt. I look for them to come together tonight and get back on track with a win over Denver, and so does their star.

"We gotta stick together as a team. No one person is going to do it," star forward Carmelo Anthony said. "Everybody has gotta play their part in us turning this thing around. Our main focus is to win as many games as we can right now to prepare ourselves to make a push for the postseason."

The Nuggets come in overvalued due to winning four of their last six games overall. Five of those six games came at home, and now they start a 4-game road trip. The Nuggets are just 10-12 on the road this season.

The Knicks will be out for revenge from a 95-97 road loss to Denver in their first meeting this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.

Denver is 1-9 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Nuggets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 25-2 system backing New York. Take the Knicks Friday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as a nice-sized road underdog. Asking the Washington Wizards to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

The reason the Cavaliers are showing such great value tonight is the fact that they have lost six straight while failing to cover six in a row in the process. Obviously, the betting public realizes that they have been struggling, which has forced oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

Cleveland is going to play motivated basketball tonight to end this losing streak. The main reason it will be focused is because it has been the laughing stock of the media due to losing to the Los Angeles Lakers last time out, who were down to four players. The Lakers had to be charged a technical to allow Robert Sacre to return to the floor after picking up his sixth foul.

Washington just played a brutal stretch in which is faced five of the top teams in the West in Golden State, LA Clippers, OKC, Portland and San Antonio. It managed to go 3-2 against those five teams, which is impressive. However, it is coming off a double-overtime loss to San Antonio, and I look for it to suffer a hangover effect. There's no way the Wizards will be able to get up emotionally to face the Cavs after taking on the toughest part of their schedule.

This has been a very closely-contested series of late with each of the last four meetings decided by 7 points or less. Cleveland has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington, so this is clearly a team that it matches up well against. Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won five of the past seven meetings outright.

Cleveland is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Washington. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +8.5

Once again, the Chicago Bulls are being undervalued by oddsmakers. This is nothing new for this team over the past two seasons under my favorite head coach in the league, Tom Thibodeau. The guy just keeps winning no matter the circumstances.

Despite arguably their two best players in Derrick Rose to a season-ending injury, and Luol Deng via trade, the Bulls have managed to go 12-6 in their last 18 games overall. At 24-24 on the season, they certainly have a chance to earn the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference if they keep up this play.

Golden State has really been struggling of late, going 4-6 in its last 10 games overall. That includes a 2-5 record at home during this stretch with losses to the likes of Denver, Indiana, Minnesota, Washington and Charlotte. It has shot 38% or less from the floor in three of its last four games overall.

Things won't get any easier for the Warriors offensively tonight as they'll be up against Chicago's stingy defense. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Golden State certainly struggled to find the bottom of the net against Chicago last year. The Bulls swept the season series in blowout fashion, winning 103-87 at home and 113-95 on the road. They held the Warriors to an average of just 91 points per game in the two wins, and averaged 108 points per game themselves despite playing without Rose.

The Warriors are 1-8 ATS against dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game this season. The Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Bulls Thursday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon +11

The Oregon Ducks (15-6) represent my strongest play for the entire 2013-14 season in the Pac-12 Thursday. They take on the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (21-1) on the road with a chance to get a signature win and greatly increase their chances of making the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon is undervalued right now due to losing six of its last eight games overall following a 13-0 start. Five of those six losses came by single-digits, including three by a combined 8 points. So, the Ducks have been in basically every game they have played with a chance to win in the end. This game will be no different.

Arizona comes in overvalued due to its 21-1 start. It just suffered its first loss of the season in a 58-60 setback at California last time out. When teams have long winning streaks like this snapped, more times than not there is a hangover effect in their next game. I really believe that the Wildcats will be upset tonight, but I'm just taking the points for some added insurance.

One key factor here is that Arizona lost one of its best players in its loss to California. Forward Brandon Ashley (ankle) has been lost for the season. He was the team's third leading scorer at 11.5 points per game, while also averaging 5.8 rebounds per game. He shot 52.2 percent from the field, 37.9 percent from 3-point range, and 75.7 percent from the free throw line, so this is obviously a huge loss.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (OREGON) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Ducks are 17-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are much-improved this season under Matt Painter due to having four starters back. However, at 13-9 on the season, they really need to go on a run right now if they want to get into the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Because of this, the Boilermakers will not be lacking any motivation. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that they have lost four straight following a three-game winning streak in the Big Ten. That is expected considering three of the losses came on the road, while the other was at home against Big Ten power Wisconsin.

Finally, this is a classic revenge spot, which will only add to the motivation. Minnesota beat Purdue 82-79 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 5. Exactly a month later, I expect the Boilermakers to have their revenge at home this time around.

Everything went right for Minnesota in that game as it shot 52.2% from the field, 11-of-24 (45.8%) from 3-point range, and 23-of-27 (85.2%) from the line, yet it still only won by 3 points. The Gophers won't shoot that well again, and as a result, they won't be so fortunate this time around.

The Golden Gophers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Purdue is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Minnesota. Take Purdue Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Portland -2

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing tremendous value as a minimal road favorite over the New York Knicks tonight. Portland (34-14) is having a tremendous season and is one of the most improved teams in the league. New York (19-29) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.

Having lost five of their last eight games overall, the Blazers will come out hungry tonight. Each of their last 10 games have come against playoff contenders, so they have played a brutal stretch of games. They finally get a break here against the lowly Knicks.

New York is 10 games below .500, and the fact of the matter is that it simply does not have the talent to compete this season. Carmelo Anthony is being asked to do too much. The Knicks have lost seven of their last 11 games overall with their only wins coming at home against the Bobcats, Lakers, Celtics and Cavs. They even lost to the league-worst Milwaukee Bucks last time out.

Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Knicks are 1-8 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Blazers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2.5

When two of the worst teams in the league in the Boston Celtics (16-33) and Philadelphia 76ers (15-34) get together, you need to look for any kind of motivational factors you can find. I believe the Celtics will be the more motivated team in this one.

The reason is very simple. These teams just played a week ago with the 76ers winning 95-94 in Boston. You can bet that the Celtics will be motivated to avenge that defeat, while the 76ers won't show up with the same focus that they normally would having beaten this team recently.

Home-court advantage has meant little in this series of late as the road team has won three of the last five meetings outright. The 76ers are just 7-17 ATS in all lined home games this season.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 90-47 (65.7%) ATS since 1996. Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 76% of more of their attempts this season. Take the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia -2.5

West Virginia comes in playing its best basketball of the season, yet it is getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as only a 2.5-point home favorite over Oklahoma. I'll take advantage and back the Mountaineers.

WVU has won three of its last four games overall with its lone loss coming at Oklahoma State by a final of 75-81 as a 13.5-point underdog. It has gone on the road and beaten Baylor, while also topping Kansas State and Texas Tech at home during this stretch.

I believe Oklahoma is overvalued right now after a fast start to Big 12 play that included four straight wins before falling to Iowa State on Saturday. The Mountaineers will be the more motivated team here as they really need this win to get back into the NCAA Tournament discussion.

The Mountaineers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games with a total of 150 to 159 points. West Virginia is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 home games off a home win. The Mountaineers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 80 points or more over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. This should come as no surprise considering they returned all five starters from last year.

The Huskers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won three of their last four games with victories over Ohio State, Minnesota and Indiana. In fact, their last three losses have all come by 6 points or less.

One of those defeats was a 70-71 home loss to Michigan. That places the Huskers in revenge mode tonight. Michigan is way overvalued due to its 8-1 start in Big Ten play. It simply cannot live up to the expectations it has created for itself in the eyes of the betting public, which has forced oddsmakers to inflate its lines.

Nebraska is 7-0 ATS off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Nebraska is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage over .600. These three trends combine for a an 18-0 system backing the Huskers. It's also worth nothing that the Huskers have had three extra days of rest heading into this one. Roll with Nebraska Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Bulls +8

The Chicago Bulls get the nod Tuesday as a nice-sized road underdog to the Phoenix Suns. I have been backing the Suns as much as anyone this year, but they are finally overvalued here, while the Bulls are showing some of their best value of the season.

Chicago is a very resilient team. That is evident by the fact that it has not lost three in a row since losing four straight from December 14-19. Off back-to-back losses, including an ugly 99-70 loss at Sacramento last night in which they shot 28.2 percent from the field, I have no doubt the Bulls will come out determined tonight.

Chicago has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Phoenix. In fact, it has won each of its last four visits to Phoenix. This has clearly been a one-sided series over time, and while the Suns are improved this year, they won't be ready for the effort they are going to get from this motivated squad tonight.

Plays on any team (CHICAGO) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on 0 days rest. Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -3.5

Despite losing five of their last six games overall, the Wisconsin Badgers are still 17-5 on the season and one of the best teams in the country. I look for them to come out motivated and to take care of business against hapless Illinois (13-9) tonight.

Wisconsin has suffered four of its losses by single-digits, so it simply hasn't been getting it done in close games. The good news is that I do not expect this game to be close at all as the Badgers come out playing inspired basketball from start to finish.

Illinois has nothing to be excited about right now. It has lost seven straight games coming in with all seven of those losses coming by 6 points or more. That includes a 70-95 loss at Wisconsin to start the streak on January 8. This has been a one-sided series to say the least.

Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Illinois as four of those victories have come by double-digits. The Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 vs. Big Ten opponents. Take Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +9

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most improved teams in the country. However, I believe they are overvalued right now as a 9-point favorite at TCU in this Big 12 showdown Tuesday night. They need to be on upset alert.

Texas is 17-4 this season after having won six straight Big 12 games. Off its biggest win of the season with an 81-69 home victory over Kansas, Texas finds itself in a massive letdown spot tonight. It's only human nature to come out flat after beating a team like Kansas.

Meanwhile, TCU is chomping at the bit to get its first taste of victory in the Big 12. It has come close in losses to West Virginia (69-74), Oklahoma (69-77) and Texas Tech (54-60) to show that it can be competitive. Remember, this team upset Kansas at home last year, and the Horned Frogs are fully capable of doing the same against the Longhorns tonight.

Texas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games coming in. The Longhorns are 15-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Bet TCU Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 198.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks. These are two big rivals who played each other in the playoffs last year, so they are also familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense every time.

When looking at the last five meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Hawks and Pacers have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings, averaging a combined 175.8 points per game during this span. That's roughly 23 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league. It is giving up just 90.3 points per game on 41.3% shooting on the season. The Pacers rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding only 93.9 points per 100 possessions, which is by far the best mark in the NBA.

The Pacers are 16-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Ohio State +6

After having lost five of their last six games overall, the Ohio State Buckeyes showed a ton of grit and determination in beating the Wisconsin Badgers on the road by a final of 59-58 Saturday. That win gives this team a ton of confidence and momentum going forward.

Ohio State is still 17-5 on the season, and I have no doubt it remains one of the best teams in the country. It will now be out for revenge from a 74-84 home loss to Iowa in their first meeting of the season back on January 12.

I have had a lot of success taking these road teams who lost at home to their opponent in the first meeting of the season. There's no question that the Buckeyes will be the more motivated team given the circumstances, and they are catching a decent amount of points to boot.

Ohio State is 19-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite since 1997. The Buckeyes are 31-10 ATS in their last 41 games when revenging a home loss vs. opponent. As you can see, this team has been excellent in this situation over time as well. Roll with Ohio State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are expected to be without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins (22.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg) due to injury once again tonight. His value to this team is really starting to show considering the Kings are 0-7 in their last seven games without him.

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most resilient teams in the league. They have managed to go 11-5 in their last 16 games overall despite a season-ending injury to Derrick Rose, and the trading of Luol Deng. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is showing that he may be the best in the league.

Another example of the Bulls' resiliency is their ability to bounce back from a loss. In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 straight up in their last seven games following a defeat, and have been tremendous under Thibodeau in this situation in his time here.

Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Bulls are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Kings are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the Bulls Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Nuggets UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets. I believe a big reason for that is the return of point guard Ty Lawson for Denver from a shoulder injury, but now the number has been inflated as a result.

Denver is still in a world of hurt in the injury department. It is without Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari, Andre Miller and JaVale McGee. This team has really cooled off offensively as a result, scoring an average of just 94.0 points per game in back-to-back home losses to Charlotte and Toronto.

When you look at the recent history of these teams, which included when Chris Paul was healthy and the Clippers were at their peak offensively, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

In fact, each of the last 15 meetings in this series have seen 215 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 15-0 totals system backing the under dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set of 216. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER 193

The San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans are both in a world of hurt right now in the injury department. As a result, I expect points to be hard to come by tonight, and for the final combined score of this game to stay well UNDER the number.

San Antonio is expected to be without Danny Green (7.4 ppg), Manu Ginobli (12.1 ppg) and Kawhi Leonard (11.6 ppg) tonight. It has been without these three for a couple games now, and the results have not been pretty. The UNDER is 3-0 in Spurs' last three games overall as they are averaging just 90.3 points/game in the process.

New Orleans is playing without two of its best players in starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). The UNDER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall as they have combined with their last four opponents 192 or fewer points in each game, and an average of 178.3 combined points per game.

The Pelicans are 25-9 to the UNDER in their last 34 home games off an upset win as a home underdog. The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Pelicans last seven games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 3-0 in Spurs last three games, and 4-0 in Pelicans last four games. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier +10

The Xavier Musketeers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Providence and Seton Hall to fall to 15-6 on the season. They are undervalued as a 10-point underdog to Villanova Monday as a result.

I've seen enough from this Xavier team to realize that it has the potential to go into Villanova and pull off the upset tonight, and at the very least to keep it close. In fact, five of its six losses this season have come by 9 points or less. It has beaten the likes of Cincinnati and Tennessee while playing some of the other top teams in the country very tough.

Villanova comes in overvalued due to having won three straight road games, but those three came against conference bottom feeders Temple, Georgetown and Marquette. The Wildcats needed overtime to beat Marquette, and only won by 5 at Georgetown. Remember, in their last home game, they lost to Creighton 68-96. That's the same Creighton team that only beat Xavier 95-89 at home.

Plays against any team (VILLANOVA) - off 3 or more consecutive road wins, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Xavier is 7-0 ATS versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or better and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better this season. The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. Bet Xavier Monday.

20* Seahawks/Broncos Super Bowl XLVIII No-Brainer on Denver -2

The Denver Broncos have looked absolutely dominant all season and in the playoffs. An amazing 14 of their 15 wins have come by a touchdown or more, and they are outscoring opponents by an average of 13.1 points per game. That is the best margin in the league. They have done so behind a record-setting year from Peyton Manning, who desperately wants to win at least one more Super Bowl before he retires. His teammates will be laying it on the line to get it for him.

Indeed, Manning has led the league's top offense this season. The Broncos rank 1st in scoring offense at 36.4 points per game, and 1st in total offense at 454.9 yards per game. During the regular season, Manning completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 5,477 yards with 55 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Those yardage and touchdown marks are new single-season NFL records, and it's going to be hard to see them every getting broken.

The two playoff games that Denver played weren't nearly as close as the final scores would indicate. It outgained San Diego 363-259 in a 24-17 victory in a game that was 17-0 until the fourth quarter. It also outgained New England 507-320 in a game that was 23-3 early in the fourth quarter. So, the Broncos have outgained their two playoff opponents a combined 870-579, or by 291 total yards.

Taking a look at Seattle's two playoff games, I would argue that it is lucky to be in the Super Bowl. It was outgained 277-409 by New Orleans in a 23-15 victory in the Divisional Round. It then tied San Francisco with 308 total yards apiece, but needed three 49ers' turnovers in the fourth quarter to come away with a 23-17 victory. The Seahawks have been outgained 585-717, or by a total of 132 yards.

There's no question that the Broncos are playing the better football leading up to the Super Bowl. While the offense is the best in the league, the defense has really stepped it up at the end of the season. In fact, Denver has allowed 17 points or fewer in four straight games, giving up just 15.0 points per game during this span.

The Broncos have no problem stopping a mediocre Seattle offense that averages just 333.8 total yards per game and relies heavily on the run. Well, the Broncos' biggest strength defensively is their ability to stop the run. In fact, they are giving up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry this season. They have held each of their last four opponents to 87 or fewer rushing yards and an average of 70.0 yards per game during this span.

Denver is 8-1 ATS vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game over the last two seasons. Seattle is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on two weeks or more of rest. Denver is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Broncos are 22-11 ATS in all games over the past two seasons. Bet the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.

15* Magic/Celtics Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic just recently got back their best player in center Nikola Vucevic. He played in his second game after missing 15 of the team's previous 16 contests because of a concussion. He helped guide the Magic to a 13-102 win over Milwaukee last time out Friday.

Vucevic is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is averaging 13.1 points and 10.8 rebounds per game this season. The Magic are a much better team on both sides of the ball with him in the lineup.

Boston has been dealing with injury issues of its own. It has lost 16 of its last 18 games coming into this one. Jerryd Bayless remains out with a toe injury, while Avery Bradley is expected to play through an ankle injury. Gerald Wallace is questionable for personal reasons Sunday.

I really believe it's more a distraction for the home team when playing on Super Bowl Sunday. There's no question that these players have Super Bowl parties to attend after the game in Boston. They'll be looking forward to those instead of focusing on basketball. I look for this game to be all business for the Magic, who don't have to worry about Super Bowl plans on the road.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a home win, in February games are 53-21 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Boston is 1-10 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Celtics are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Magic Sunday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +14.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating Louisville on the road by a final of 69-66 as a 9-point underdog Thursday. Now, they have a game against UConn on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them.

It's only human nature for the Bearcats to show up lacking focus today off such a big win and with a great opponent on deck. I also believe this team is overvalued due to their current 13-game winning streak. Four of their last five wins have come by 11 points or less.

One of those was a 61-54 win at South Florida on January 18. So, the Bulls will be out for revenge in this game. That's another reason that the Bearcats will find it hard being motivated enough to win this game by 15-plus having already beaten the Bulls. I fully expect this one to go down to the wire.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (S FLORIDA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Cincinnati is 19-37 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 7-30 ATS in its last 37 Sunday games. South Florida is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series, including 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Cincinnati. Take South Florida Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER 182

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies today. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as both teams struggle offensively.

Since January 10, the Grizzlies are allowing an NBA-best 88.8 points per game, which is 6.0 ppg less than second-place Chicago. They are also yielding a league-best 41.7 field-goal percentage over this span. They haven't allow an opponent to score more than 90 during their current five-game winning streak.

That doesn't bode well for the Bucks (8-38), who are scoring an NBA-low 91.9 points per game this season. The good news for the Bucks is that the Grizzlies haven't reached 100 points in any of their last nine games. Plus, leading scorer Mike Conley (18.0 ppg, 6.3 apg) is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury. This offense will really be out of sync if Conley cannot go.

These teams have played in defensive battles in each of their last two meetings. Memphis won 90-80 at home in their final meeting of 2012-13 for 170 combined points. Memphis also won their first meeting of 2013-14 with an 82-77 road victory on January 15 for 159 combined points. I don't expect this game to come close to 180 combined points, either.

Memphis is 9-0 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of less than 25% over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the league. Tom Thibodeau keeps producing a winner no matter who is on the floor. It's like they didn't even lose their best player in Derrick Rose, or trade away one of their best players in Luol Deng.

Thibodeau could win coach of the year every year with what he's doing with this team. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 games overall, which includes a 98-86 road victory at San Antonio last time out on Wednesday. That means they've had two days' rest heading into this one.

New Orleans has lost 10 of its last 14 games overall and should be a much bigger underdog tonight. It remains without two of its best players in Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). It simply has not been able to make up for these two huge losses, and now leading scorer Anthony Davis (20.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) is banged up with a finger injury.

Chicago wants revenge from a 128-131 overtime loss at home to the Pelicans in their first meeting of the season. That was a rare win for the Pelicans in this series as the Bulls have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series.

The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to New Orleans dating back to 2009. The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are running on fumes right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 8th game in 12 days, and their 11th game in 17 days. They simply don't have anything left in the tank, and that will show tonight against the Wizards.

Washington will be out for revenge from a 105-106 road loss at Oklahoma City on November 10 as an 8.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. The thing about the Wizards is that they have a superstar stopper in Trevor Ariza, who can guard guys like Kevin Durant, Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony as well as just about anyone in the league.

The Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season of late, winning six of their last 10 games overall. That includes victories over Miami, Chicago (twice), Phoenix and Golden State, which equates to five wins over playoff contenders during this stretch. They have bounced back to win from each of their last four losses as well.

Washington is 12-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 53-34 ATS in their last 87 games as an underdog. Washington is 13-3 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Georgetown Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgetown +7.5

The Michigan State Spartans are overvalued after their big overtime win at Iowa on Tuesday. They were able to win that game with a depleted roster, which was a huge win for the program. It's only human nature for them to come back and suffer a letdown as they step out of conference to face Georgetown Saturday.

Michigan State is still expected to be without its two best post players in Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg). Some teams can play without their best players for a couple games, but over time it catches up to them.

I look for the Hoyas to be very competitive today against the short-handed Spartans and to likely pull off the upset. This Georgetown team is highly motivated for a win after losing five straight coming in, including a 5-point loss to Villanova last time out. The Hoyas will have a big home-court advantage as this game will be played in Madison Square Garden.

Tom Izzo is 4-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog as the coach of Michigan State. This trend just goes to show how the Spartans have had letdowns following a big road game under Izzo. Georgetown is 6-0 ATS in February games over the past two seasons. The Hoyas are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Georgetown Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are showing tremendous value as only a 3-point home favorite over Kansas State this afternoon. I'll take advantage and back them in a game I look for them to run away with.

Kansas State is a tremendous home team with one of the best home-court advantages in the country. However, the Wildcats have really struggled on the road throughout the years, and that has not changed this year. They are 1-3 in true road games this season.

West Virginia has won two of its last three games and is a respectable 4-4 in Big 12 play this season. What's most amazing about that is the fact that it has won three Big 12 road games already. This team will be out for revenge from an ugly loss at Kansas State on January 18, so the motivation will be on the Mountaineers' side.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +10.5

The TCU Horned Frogs and Texas Tech Red Raiders are battling for the basement of the Big 12 this season. The Frogs have yet to win a Big 12 game, while the Raiders only have two victories within the conference.

One of those wins for Texas Tech came against TCU in a 60-49 road victory on January 18. That places the Horned Frogs in revenge mode, and also extra motivated for their first win of the season. This will be their best chance to get one, and I look for them to put up a great fight today.

All three meetings between these teams have been decided by 11 points or less over the last two seasons. The Horned Frogs have lost all three of those games, so that adds even more fuel to the fire for them. There's no question this team is improved from a year ago.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (TCU) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 77-34 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Texas Tech is 6-21 ATS off an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take TCU Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most improved teams in the league this season. At 24-21, they are a legitimate threat to get the No. 3 seed in the East. But playing in Canada, this team consistently has gone under the radar.

The Raptors should not be an underdog against the depleted Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver is expected to be without Ty Lawson (shoulder) and Nate Robinson (knee). It was already without Andre Miller, so essentially it is missing its top three points guards.

Those injuries contributed to an ugly 98-101 home loss to the Charlotte Bobcats last time out. Lawson is irreplaceable, averaging 17.9 points and 8.9 assists per game this season. Meanwhile, Toronto is expected to get back leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (21.8 ppg) tonight after a two-game absence.

The Raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. Toronto is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days' rest. The Raptors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last six Friday games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Friday games. These last three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves +1

The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally playing up to their potential after going 0-11 in their first 11 games that were decided by 4 points or less. This is a dangerous team and one that nobody wants to play come playoff time if they get in.

Minnesota has gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with its only loss coming at Portland. That includes road victories over both Golden State and Chicago during this stretch. The Timberwolves finally won a close game by a single point at Golden State (121-120), and I believe that result will give them confidence in close games going forward.

Memphis is also playing its best basketball of the season, but it has no business being a road favorite here. Point differential is one of the best indicators of how good a team is. The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by 4.7 points per game on the season, while the Grizzlies are only outscoring foes by 0.4 points per game.

Plays on home underdogs (MINNESOTA) - off a home win, in January games are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games when playing on one days' rest. Minnesota is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Friday games. Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Thunder/Nets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are way overvalued right now due to their 9-game winning streak. They should not be favored at Brooklyn, which is also playing its best basketball of the season.

The Nets have been playing well ever since a 95-93 win at Oklahoma City as a 12-point underdog on January 2. They have gone 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS dating back to that huge win, and I'll gladly back them as a home dog as they come into this game on three days' rest.

The Thunder are in a huge letdown spot. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 112-95 victory at defending champion Miami. It's only human nature for them to let down after such a massive victory on National TV.

Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 107-56 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. Take the Nets Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5.5

The Golden State Warriors are a very hungry team right now. They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five of those losses coming to playoff contenders by 8 points or less. They are coming off an ugly 85-88 home loss to the Wizards.

The Clippers are overvalued and overconfident right now after winning four straight and 10 of their last 12 games overall. This team has been beating up on mostly Eastern Conference bottom feeders during this stretch as eight of the 10 victories came against the East. The other two were at home against the Lakers and Mavs.

My biggest reason for backing the Warriors tonight is that they come in rested with one day off between games, while the Clippers come in very tired. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days tonight, which is the toughest situation in the NBA.

The home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Golden State is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Los Angeles. Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Purdue/Michigan ESPN No-Brainer on Purdue +12

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now. They have opened a perfect 7-0 in Big Ten play due to winning all of their close games. Five of those seven wins came by 8 points or less. Off a massive win at Michigan State last time out, this team is in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country. It has opened 13-7 this season, which includes impressive road wins over West Virginia and Illinois. Both of its Big Ten road losses this year came by exactly 3 points to Minnesota and Northwestern, so this team has proven it can play well away from home.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PURDUE) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Matt Painter is 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points as the coach of Purdue. Painter is 25-9 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of Purdue. Take Purdue Thursday.

15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -2

The Oregon Ducks are way undervalued right now due to having lost five of their last six games overall. After losing five straight with four of those losses coming by single-digits, they bounced back in a big way with a 71-44 win at Washington State last time out.

I look for the Ducks to build off of that win, and to continue playing motivated basketball after such a poor stretch. I have no doubt that this is still one of the best teams in the country, and they'll prove that against UCLA tonight.

UCLA has only played three true road games, going 1-2 with losses to Missouri and Utah. It's only win came against a depleted Colorado team that was missing its best player. The Bruins have proven nothing on the road this year, therefore they are getting too much respect as only a 2-point dog in this one.

Oregon is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with UCLA. The Ducks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win. Oregon is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 home games following a blowout win by 20 points or more. UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80%. Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most improved teams in the land this season. That should come as no surprise considering they returned all five starters from last season. This team is way undervalued having covered five straight and six of seven in Big Ten play this season.

I have really been impressed with how well Nebraska has played at home this year. In fact, it is 9-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS in all home games with its only loss coming to Michigan (70-71) by a single point. The Wolverines are currently in first place in the Big Ten with a 7-0 mark. The Huskers have beaten the likes of Ohio State and Minnesota at home.

Indiana is reloading this season with only one starter back from last year. It is off to a mediocre 13-7 start, losing most of its big games. The Hoosiers are just 1-3 in true road games this season with their lone win coming at Penn State (79-76) by a mere 3 points.

Nebraska is 37-15 ATS in its last 52 home games with a line of +3 to -3. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls. The Huskers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Take Nebraska Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +13.5

The Florida Gators are simply getting too much respect from the books tonight. Certainly, the Gators deserve some respect due to their 11-game winning streak, but asking them to win by 14-plus points on the road at Mississippi State to beat us is asking too much.

Only three of Florida's 11 wins during this run have been in true road games, and all three went down to the wire. It beat Arkansas (84-82), Auburn (68-61) and Alabama (68-62), which are all three teams that have similar talent to the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State (13-6) is certainly an improved team this year with all five starters back. I really like what I've seen from this team at home. The Bulldogs are 11-1 at home this season, which includes wins over Ole Miss (76-72), Texas A&M (81-72) and Auburn (82-74) in SEC play.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (FLORIDA) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with Florida. Roll with Mississippi State Thursday.

20* Bulls/Spurs ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago +8

The San Antonio Spurs have no business being this heavily favored over the Chicago Bulls with the state they are currently in right now. They are expected to be without three of their best players in Manu Ginobli, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green tonight. Not to mention, Tiago Splitter remains out.

The Spurs have struggled of late due to these injuries. In fact, they have lost four of their last six games overall. This has been a popular team to back off a loss over recent years, but the fact of the matter is that this isn't the same team. The Spurs are depleted, and as a result, this is just an average NBA team right now.

Tom Thibodeau is my favorite head coach in the league. What he has been able to do with Chicago through the injuries to Derrick Rose is nothing short of remarkable. The Bulls have managed to go 10-4 in their last 14 games overall. A big reason for their success is the addition of point guard D.J. Augustine, who has resurrected his career in Chicago. He is averaging 13.6 points and 6.0 assists for the Bulls.

Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. San Antonio is on a second of a back-to-back here after losing in Houston last night, making this situation even tougher with a depleted roster. Roll with the Bulls Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Spurs ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 190

For many of the same reasons I am backing the Bulls in this game, I am also taking the UNDER. San Antonio is without four of its best players in Manu Ginobli, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tiago Splitter. Chicago is obviously without Derrick Rose. Points are going to be hard to come by.

However, the biggest reason to back the UNDER in this game is the fact that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Indeed, Chicago ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 98.1 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 99.8 points per 100 possessions.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Bulls and Spurs as it is, and that trend should continue given the injuries. The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams. Better yet, the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from their 70-77 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 13. They also lost in overtime twice to the Jayhawks last season, so you can bet that payback is on the mind of every single player for Iowa State.

Amazingly, the Cyclones only lost by 7 to the Jayhawks despite playing the worst that they possibly could. They shot just 31.4% from the field compared to 49.2% for the Jayhawks. They went cold from 3-point range, connecting on just 4-of-25 (16.0%) attempts. They were also outrebounded 36-53.

I look for the Cyclones to be much sharper from the field, especially from beyond the arc, which is their specialty. I also look for them to be much more aggressive on the glass in this one. Plus, DeAndre Kane was about 60 percent healthy as he was playing on a hobbled ankle.

The Wooden Award candidate is back and healthy and will be a big reason as to why ISU gives Kansas a run for its money. Just last year, the Cyclones took the Jayhawks to overtime in Lawrence as an 11.5-point underdog only after a banked 3-pointer by Kansas at the buzzer.

Iowa State is a perfect 9-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 80.8 to 63.3 in this spot, or by an average of 17.5 points per game. This game will go right down to the wire with the Cyclones having a great chance to pull off the upset. Bet Iowa State Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +9

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013-14. Head coach Jeff Bzdelik returned four starters from last year, and the result has been a 14-6 start and a legitimate shot to get into the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish.

While the Demon Deacons have not played well on the road this year, they simply have been flawless at home. In fact, Wake Forest is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.0 points per game. That includes wins over the likes of Richmond, St. Bonaventure, UNC, NC State and Notre Dame.

For starters, Syracuse is way overvalued right now due to its 19-0 start. It has been a covering machine to boot, going 11-4 ATS in all lined games. The betting public has caught on to the Orange, which has forced oddsmakers to set an inflated line tonight.

This is a massive letdown spot for Syracuse with its biggest game of the season on deck against Duke this Saturday. The Orange won't be able to help themselves from looking ahead to that game. As a result, they won't have the kind of focus to beat Wake Forest by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us.

Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after allowing 65 points or less five straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. Wake Forest is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Miami -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are way overvalued due to their current 8-game winning streak that has simply seen Kevin Durant go off. Well, that streak is about to end and Durant is about to cool off as he'll be matched up against the best defender in the NBA in Lebron James.

You can bet that King James has heard about what Durant has been doing through the media. These two are 1-2 for the MVP award almost every single year. James is going to want to put Durant in his place tonight, and that extra motivation will help lead to a blowout home victory for the Heat.

There's no question that James and the Heat have gotten the best of Durant and the Thunder in recent years. In fact, Miami is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oklahoma City overall. All seven of those wins have come by 4 points or more as well.

Oklahoma City is a tired team right now as this will be its 6th game in 9 days. Miami is well-rested, having two days off prior to this game to rest up and prepare for the Thunder. The Heat are 19-3 at home this season, so they have protected their home court very well. Take Miami Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this Western Conference rivalry between the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Since the return of 2012-13 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have gotten back to their usual lockdown defense. They have allowed an average of 86.2 points on 40.3 percent shooting in six contest since Gasol returned from an injured left knee. To no surprise, the UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six games overall.

Memphis also earned its seventh win in eight games Saturday by finishing off a home-and-home sweep of Houston. It held the high-powered Rockets to an average of 84.0 points on 38.8 percent shooting in back-to-back games. That's 21 points below their season average.

Several played for Portland have struggled against Memphis. The Grizzlies gave up an average of 86.0 points on 40.8 percent shooting in four games against Portland in 2012-13, winning the last three.

Nicolas Batum averaged 8.3 points on 30.8 percent shooting in three of those meetings, and Wesley Matthews averaged 10.3 points on 32.4 percent shooting in the three consecutive defeats. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 17.7 points on 36.2 percent shooting in three games. His 15.4 lifetime scoring average versus the Grizzlies is his worst against any opponent.

Each of the last 11 meetings in this series have seen less than 200 combined points. Eight of the last nine meetings have seen 191 or fewer combined points. This makes for an 8-1 (89%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 197.5. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Portland. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-8 (78.9%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on St. John's +13.5

The St. John's Red Storm got off to a horrible start this season. It was certainly a surprise considering this team returned all five starters from last year and was supposed to be one of the most improved in the country. However, that slow start has created a ton of value for the Red Storm lately, especially here tonight.

St. John's has been finally playing up to its potential of late. It has won three straight coming in, including its most impressive performance of the season last time out. The Red Storm went on the road and beat Butler 69-52 despite being a 3.5-point underdog in that contest. I believe that performance is a sign of things to come for this team.

Creighton is way overvalued right now due to being nationally ranked. There's no question that this is a quality team, but they are nowhere near as good as the beat down they put on Villanova a week ago, which is the reason they are overvalued here. The Bluejays made everything they looked at in that game from 3-point range. Asking them to win by 14 to beat us against an underrated St. John's team is simply asking too much.

St. John's is 33-18 ATS in its last 51 games after giving up five or less offensive rebounds last game. Creighton is 5-17 ATS after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games over the past three seasons. This trend just goes to show how overvalued the Bluejays have been when getting on a run like the current one they are on. Take St. John's Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. It's amazing how close this team is to being 20-0 right now. All four of its losses have come on the road to ranked opponents in Villanova (83-88), Iowa State (82-85), Wisconsin (71-75) and Michigan (67-75) by a combined 20 points.

Iowa has yet to lose at home this season, going a perfect 11-0 while outscoring opponents 90.3 to 62.1, or by an average of 28.2 points per game. It's safe to say that Carver Hawkeye Arena has made a revival, and it will be rowdy inside when the Michigan State Spartans make a visit. These fans and the players want revenge from two 3-point losses to Michigan State last year.

The Spartans are in a world of hurt right now. They are likely to be without their top two big men tonight. Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) is out with a broken wrist, while Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) is doubtful with a foot injury. Iowa is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, outrebounding opponents 44-34 on the season, so the potential losses of Dawson and Payne will hurt the Spartans against the Hawkeyes more than they would against most other teams.

Iowa is 10-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Iowa is 26-8 ATS in its last 34 games following a win. The Hawkeyes are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 home games. Iowa is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma State/Oklahoma ESPN Rivalry Play on Oklahoma +5

The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Once again, they are getting disrespected as a home underdog to rival Oklahoma State Monday. While I don't believe they'll need the points, I'll back the Sooners and the points for some insurance.

Oklahoma (16-4) has proven it is one of the better teams in the land in conference play. It has opened 5-2 in the Big 12, which includes road wins at Baylor and Texas, as well as a home win over Iowa State. Its two losses have come by 7 points or less to both Kansas and Kansas State (on the road).

Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the land due to having Marcus Smart, who really hasn't been as good as he was expected to be. The Cowboys have opened 4-2 in conference play, and they've been atrocious on the road. They are 1-2 in conference road games, losing to Kansas State and Kansas, while beating lowly West Virginia (73-72) by a single point.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely enormous in this rivalry. In fact, the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings in this series. Better yet, the Sooners are 9-0 in Norman against the Cowboys since a 65-52 loss back in 2004. As you can see, the wrong team is favored in this one. Roll with Oklahoma Monday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

The Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets will take part in a defensive battle tonight. I look for the final combined score to be similar to the 176 points they put up on a 96-80 Toronto victory on January 11. This will be their 3rd meeting of the season, and familiarity favors defense.

The key to Brooklyn's success recently has been to slow down the pace and play better defense. The Nets are averaging about five possessions fewer per game in January than they were prior to that. Their offensive and defensive efficiency has gone up as a result.

Toronto has been playing at a slow pace all season. It ranks 23rd in pace at 94.6 possessions per game, while Brookiyn is 27th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. The Raptors rank 6th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.8 points per 100 possessions.

One big factor that has been backing the UNDER in this game is that Toronto is expected to be without leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan. He suffered a foot sprain against the Clippers on Saturday. DeRozan is in the midst of the best season of his career, averaging 21.8 points per game.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight road games overall. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 19-8 in the last 27 meetings in Brooklyn. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -5

The Phoenix Suns continue to be the most underrated team in the NBA. They have won three of their last four, which includes wins over Denver and Indiana, to get to 25-18 on the season and right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.

The Suns are a league-best 28-14-1 ATS this season, making backers a ton of money. Sure, this is a second of a back-to-back situation, but this is the deepest team in the league, so that's not a problem. Also, they come in with momentum after holding the Cavaliers to 29 points in the second half of a 99-90 comeback road victory Sunday.

I'll gladly fade the Philadelphia 76ers (14-30), who have given up 100 points or more in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. They are giving up a league-worst 109.5 points per game this season. Their offense has been struggling to boot, averaging just 94.4 points on 42.4 percent shooting during a 2-9 stretch.

Philadelphia is 1-10 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that average 99 or more points per game this season. The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this year. Philly is 1-9 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game this season. The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system going against Philadelphia. Take the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Golden State Warriors -4.5

The Golden State Warriors certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight. They have lost four of their last five games coming in with all four losses coming by eight points or less, and all four against some of the best teams in the league.

The Warriors are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. The same cannot be said for Portland, which will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. The edge in rest, preparation and motivation clearly favors Golden State.

That's also the case when you consider that the Warriors will want revenge from their 101-113 home loss to the Blazers in their first meeting of the season on November 23. The Blazers have lost their last two road games at Houston (113-126) and at Oklahoma City (97-105).

Portland is 1-10 ATS in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 110 or more points in two straight games.

Portland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games following a win by 10 points or more. Golden State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. The Blazers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Golden State. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah +15

The Utah Utes get the call Saturday as a massive road underdog to the Arizona Wildcats. Ranked No. 1 in the country, the Wildcats are clearly overvalued right now, which means it's time to fade them.

While Arizona (19-0) is considered the best team in the land, I have no doubt that Utah (14-5) is one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. In fact, this team is very close to being undefeated this season. All five of its losses have come by 4 points or less with road losses to Boise State (67-69), Washington (57-59), Washington State (46-49) and Arizona State (75-79), as well as a home loss to Oregon (68-70).

Utah played Arizona extremely tough last season. It lost by a final of 57-60 as a 19-point road underdog on January 5. It came back at home and lost 64-68 as a 10-point underdog on February 17. There's no question the Utes want revenge and would love nothing more than to hand the Wildcats their first lost of the season. At the very least, I have no doubt they'll stay within 15 points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UTAH) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Utah is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last two seasons. The Utes are 13-0 ATS versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse from the field over the last two years. The Utes are 38-13-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall. Bet Utah Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -5.5

The Oregon Ducks are going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday as they travel to face lowly Washington State. I look for that motivation and intensity to lead to a blowout road victory against the Cougars, who are just 8-11 on the season.

Oregon opened 13-0 and was nationally ranked. However, it has lost five straight games since with four of those coming by single-digits. It simply hasn't been getting the breaks, and it has played a brutal schedule to boot.

This is actually a break in the scheduled for the Ducks. Washington State is 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in Pac-12 play, getting outscored by an average of 16.5 points per game. The Cougars are clearly the worst team in the conference, and that will show again tonight.

Ken Bone is 0-9 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 or more free throws per game in all games he has coached. Take this 100% system all-time straight to the bank tonight. Take Oregon Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 195

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in a rematch from last night's 88-87 road victory by the Grizzlies, making this a home-and-home situation.

That 175-point total should come as no surprise considering these teams have played in defensive battles dating back to last season. In fact, the last four meetings have seen 175, 192, 179 and 160 combined points. That's an average of 176.5 combined points/game, which is nearly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.

Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. Not only did these teams just face each other last night, but this will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between the Rockets and Grizzlies. This familiarity certainly favors the defenses considering they know what the opposing offenses like to do.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Rockets last five vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four games following a win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -1.5

It's now or never for the Alabama Crimson Tide, who cannot afford many more losses if they want to make a run at the NCAA Tournament. Playing with that motivation in mind, I'll back them as a small home favorite over the LSU Tigers today.

Alabama is the best team in the country that currently has a losing record. It just simply has not gotten the breaks in close games as nine of its 10 losses have come by 10 points or less, including close setbacks against some of the best teams in the country in Wichita State (67-72), Xavier (74-77) and Florida (62-68).

My biggest reason for backing 'Bama is the importance of home-court advantage in this series. Alabama is a sensational 14-2 SU in its last 16 home meetings with LSU.

Plays on a favorite (ALABAMA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS when playing with one or less days' rest over the last three seasons. Take Alabama Saturday.

15* Michigan/MSU ESPN Rivalry Play on Michigan +5

The Michigan State Spartans have no business being favored Saturday. They are going to be without their two best post players, and as a result, they are going to get owned inside and likely lose outright. I'm only taking the five points for some insurance.

Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) has missed the past four games with a foot injury and is doubtful to play Saturday. Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) suffered a broken hand during a recent film session and will miss the next four-to-five weeks as a result.

You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing better basketball than the Wolverines right now. They have won eight straight games going in, going 6-1-1 ATS in the process. That includes road wins over Minnesota (63-60) and Wisconsin (77-70), as well as a home win over Iowa (75-67). Roll with Michigan Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +8

The Seton Hall Pirates have no business being this heavily favored over the DePaul Blue Demons Saturday in what I believe is a very evenly-matched game. I'll take the points in this one without hesitation as a result.

One of my biggest reasons for wanting to fade Seton Hall here is that it is in a very tough spot. Indeed, it is coming off a painful 76-77 loss at St. John's on Thursday. It came way back from 17 points down in the second half to have a chance to win in the end.

So, the Pirates used a ton of energy to come back, and now they only get one day to rest and prepare for DePaul. Meanwhile, the Blue Demons come in fresh and ready to go having last played on Monday, January 20 in a 10-point loss to Xavier. That edge in rest and preparation will be a big key to a Demon Deacons' cover today.

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Saturday home games. The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games following a game with five or less offensive rebounds. Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off a close road loss by 3 points or less. Bet DePaul Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +9.5

The Florida Gators are getting way too much respect from the books Saturday. I'll gladly take my chances with the Gators not being able to beat a very underrated Tennessee team by double-digits in this one.

The reason Florida is overvalued is due to winning 10 straight games heading into this one. It has shown signs of being overvalued in its last two games, failing to cover in a 7-point win over Auburn and a 6-point win over Alabama. This one will go right down to the wire as well.

While Tennessee is a mediocre 12-6 this season, a closer look shows how close this team is to being a lot better than that. In fact, all six of its losses have come by 9 points or less this season. That three road losses to Xavier (63-67), Wichita State (61-70) and Kentucky (66-74), which are three of the best teams in the country. Those three efforts give the Vols the believe that they can play with anyone on the road.

Tennessee simply has Florida's number. In fact, the Vols are a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Gators. They won 64-58 as an 8-point home underdog, 75-70 as a 12.5-point road dog, and 67-56 as a 7.5-point home dog in their last three meetings, respectively.

The Vols are 10-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3-plus fouls per game less than their opponents over the last three seasons. Tennessee is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus per game after 15-plus games over the last two years. Florida is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games following seven or more consecutive wins. Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +14

The West Virginia Mountaineers will be out for revenge from their 72-73 home loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys back on January 11 just two weeks ago. They will give the Cowboys a run for their money today, and they should not be catching 14 points.

Oklahoma State is in a very tough spot here. It is coming off a heartbreaking 78-80 loss at Kansas last time out, and it has a huge game on deck against Oklahoma Monday. That makes this a sandwich game for the Cowboys, who will have a hard time getting motivated enough to beat WVU by 15-plus points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 47-18 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

West Virginia is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after scoring 80 or more points in its previous game. Oklahoma State is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Cowboys are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +9.5

The Northwestern Wildcats will be out for revenge today from their ugly 67-93 loss at Iowa in their first meeting of the season on January 9. With the way this team has been playing of late, I like their chances to stay within double-digits of the Hawkeyes and possibly pull off the upset in the rematch.

Indeed, Northwestern is 3-1 in its last four games overall with home wins against Illinois (49-43) and Purdue (63-60), as well as a very impressive road win at Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point underdog. It was a dog in all four of those contests.

Iowa is in a tough spot here. Not only will it find it hard to be motivated enough to beat Northwestern by double-digits after already topping the Wildcats by 26 points, it is also coming off a tough loss at Michigan, and it has an even bigger game with Michigan State on deck Tuesday.

The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where both teams scored 70 points or less over the last three seasons. They are winning 67.7 to 64.0 in this spot. They are clearly playing tremendous defense coming in. Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

15* Clippers/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers. This team has been counted out all season since the loss of Derrick Rose, and all they've been doing is proving their doubters wrong.

Once again, the Bulls are being overlooked tonight by the books, and we'll take advantage. They have won nine of their last 11 games overall while going 8-3 ATS in the process. This team simply has no quit in them even with the tough circumstances.

The Clippers have really started to show signs of missing Chris Paul of late. They have lost two of their last three games overall, including a 91-95 setback at Charlotte last time out. Making matters worse is that backup PG Darren Collison is nursing a toe injury.

Chicago is 37-16 ATS in its last 53 Friday games. The Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a win. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Hawks UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle and for neither team to top 105 points in this one.

The reason this total has been inflated is because Atlanta has gone over the number in four straight coming in. That stretch followed six straight unders, and the biggest reason for it is the fact that they have been playing some terrible defensive teams.

San Antonio is no slouch defensively. In fact, it ranks 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.6 points per 100 possessions. After losing two of their last three and giving up 109 and 111 points in the losses, you can bet that Greg Popovich will be stressing defense coming into this one.

Looking at recent history in this series, it's easy to see why there's a ton of value with the UNDER. Each of the last six meetings have seen 202 or less combined points. Not counting overtime, each of the last 22 meetings have seen 210 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 21-0-1 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They came up just short against the defending champion Miami Heat Thursday, and there's no way they'll recover emotionally in time to give the effort it take to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

Orlando is going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing 12 of its last 13 games overall. It has been playing much better of late, covering three of its last five against the spread with two 3-point losses and a win over the Celtics.

The Lakers are an extremely tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days. After covering each of their last six games ATS, they are simply way overvalued in this contest.

The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Los Angeles is just 8-16 on the road this year. Bet the Magic Friday.

20* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 221.5

The books have simply set the bar too high in this game tonight between the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers. For starters, the intensity in National TV games usually goes up a notch, and that favors the defenses more than anything.

There's no question that both teams will come in intense after losing their last two games each. The focus for both head coaches will be defense after the Nuggets gave up an average of 117.0 points/game in their two losses, while the Blazers allowed 115.5 points/game in their two defeats.

One surefire way to tell that this total has been inflated is to simply look at the first meeting of the season between these teams on November 1. Oddsmakers set that total at 198, which is nearly 24 points lower than tonight's posted total of 221.5. Portland beat Denver 113-98 for 211 combined points, and I believe a similar combined final is in store tonight.

Denver is 18-6 to the UNDER in its last 24 road games versus bad pressure defensive teams who force 12 or less turnovers per game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games playing on three or more days or rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 6-1 in Nuggets last seven Thursday games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -3

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing tremendous value as a small home favorite over the Nebraska Cornhuskers tonight. I'll take advantage and back them in what I believe is going to be a blowout by game's end.

Penn State is one of the most improved teams in the country this season due to the return of leading scorer Tim Frazier, who missed nearly all of last season with an injury. However, the Nittany Lions have struggled in Big Ten play, opening 0-6 with three losses by 3 points or less. That leaves them hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference, and they get it tonight.

This is the perfect spot to fade Nebraska, which is coming off its biggest win of the season. After opening 0-4 in Big Ten play, the Huskers were able to upset Ohio State at home on Monday. It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown off such a big win. Plus, the Huskers only come in on two days' rest, while the Nittany Lions come in on four days' rest having last played on Saturday.

Nebraska is 0-8 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival over the last three seasons. It is coming back to lost 57.0 to 77.9 in this spot, or by an average of 20.9 points per game. Bet Penn State Thursday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's -4

The St. John's Red Storm are under the radar right now due to a poor start in Big East play. With all five starters back from last season, this team has certainly underachieved up to this point. However, I think this is going to be a dangerous squad going forward because of it.

St. John's has opened 0-5 in Big East play and is hungry for its first taste of victory within the conference. Three of those losses have come by 7 points or less, including two by a combined 3 points. There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should be a much heavier home favorite tonight.

Seton Hall is just a mediocre team that is getting too much respect from he books tonight. It was blown out at home by both Creighton (66-79) and Villanova (67-83). It also lost at home to St. Peters (80-83) in mid-December. However, it is coming off a big win at Georgetown last time out, which sets it up for a letdown spot here against a Red Storm team that simply wants it more.

Kevin Willard is 3-12 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three games against the spread as the coach of Seton Hall. Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is a sensational 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take St. John's Thursday.

15* Pacers/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +6.5

The Phoenix Suns remain the most underrated team in the league this season. We are basically at the midpoint of the season, and this team is still 23-17 straight up and 26-13-1 ATS and right in the thick of the playoff race in the stacked Western Conference.

Once again, the Suns are getting overlooked as a 6-point home underdog to the Indiana Pacers when they really shouldn't be a dog in this game at all. Indiana is coming off a big win at Golden State Monday, setting it up for a letdown spot here.

Phoenix has gone 14-6 at home this season to really protect its home floor. Indiana has proven to be beatable on the road at 12-6 on the year. The Suns have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with the Pacers.

Plays against road teams (INDIANA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=41% on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1996. The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Phoenix is 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season. Roll with the Suns Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -2

Off back-to-back losses, which just so happened to be their only two losses on the season, the Wisconsin Badgers (16-2) will be out for blood tonight. I'll gladly back this motivated team against the overmatched Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight.

While Wisconsin's two losses came by a combined nine points, Minnesota has really been overmatched in a couple of Big Ten games against the top teams in the league. It lost to Michigan State 75-87, while also falling to Iowa 73-94 last time out. It stands little chance tonight, too.

Wisconsin has won four of its last five meetings with Minnesota with its only loss coming in overtime. The Gophers have played a much softer schedule than the Badgers to this point, and I don't believe they are fully ready for the effort they're going to get from this hungry Wisconsin team.

The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Golden Gophers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten foes. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Golden Gophers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games. Take Wisconsin Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +7.5

This is a classic revenge game for the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who lost at home to West Virginia by a final of 86-89 on January 6. Two weeks later, the Red Raiders will be out for payback tonight.

Texas Tech has been playing great since that defeat. After falling at Texas 64-67 as a 10-point underdog, it came back and beat Baylor at home 82-72 as a 5-point dog, while also topping TCU on the road 60-49 as a 2-point favorite.

West Virginia has been overrated all season, and it continues to be tonight. This team simply isn't that good, and that has shown in the last three games. It fell at home to Oklahoma State (72-73) and Texas (69-80) before getting throttled on the road at Kansas State (56-78).

Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points or less. The Mountaineers are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. WVU is 7-22-1 ATS in its last 30 home games. The Mountaineers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Texas Tech Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks OVER 204

The Philadelphia 76ers have gone under the total in five straight games heading into this showdown with New York. As a result, the books have been forced to set the bar too low in what I believe will be an absolute shootout tonight.

Philadelphia is combining with its opponents to average 211.1 points per game this season, which is 7.1 points more than tonight's posted total. The 76ers play at the fastest pace in the league with 102.4 possessions per game.

Neither team has been good defensively this season. Philadelphia ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, giving up 105.6 points per 100 possessions, and 109.9 points per game on the year. New York ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, yielding 105.9 points per 100 possessions.

The 76ers are 38-19 to the OVER in their last 57 road games with a total set between 200 and 204.5 points. The OVER is 9-3 in 76ers last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 10-4 in Knicks last 14 games following a loss. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Raptors UNDER 202

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between Dallas and Toronto. These teams played in a 109-108 overtime thriller in their first meeting of the season, and it's going to take overtime again to push this total over the number.

After giving up 94 or fewer points in six straight and nine of their last 10, the Raptors have allowed 100-plus points in each of their last two games, both losses. They can point to their defense for the defeats, and I look for them to get back to playing the excellent D that they have been all year tonight.

Toronto will control the tempo playing at home tonight. It ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 94.7 possessions per game. The key to Toronto's turnaround this season has been its defense. It ranks 6th in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 75-30 (71.4%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavs last five vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Toronto. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson +11

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Quietly, they have gotten off to a 13-4 start this season and have proven their worth in ACC play. They have opened 4-1 in the conference, which includes a win over Duke.

Pittsburgh is a much-improved team this season as well, but it is way overvalued here and has been for much of the season. It has gone just 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 lined games, time and time again failing to cover lofty spreads.

The Panthers are coming off a huge loss to Syracuse by a final of 54-59 over the weekend. I fully expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat as it will be tough to bounce back emotionally from such a close defeat.

Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Pittsburgh is 1-12 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more over the last three seasons. Take Clemson Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics +9.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. They catch the Heat playing their worst basketball of the season, and I look for them to give the defending champs a run for their money.

Indeed, Miami has lost four of its last six games overall. Now, it is in a very tough situation returning home from a six-game road trip. Making matters worse for the Heat is the fact that they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

Despite being on a tough run of late, Boston has shown some fight. It has covered the spread in five of its last eight games overall, which includes losses at the Clippers (105-111) as an 11-point dog, at the Warriors (97-99) as an 11.5-point dog, and at the Blazers (104-112) as a 12-point dog. The Celtics have lost their last four road games all by 8 points or less.

Boston beat Miami 111-110 on the road in their first meeting of the season. Plays against home teams (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +12

The Indiana Hoosiers will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they head to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans. Not only do they have revenge in mind, but they also want to get the sour taste out of their mouths from an ugly loss last time out.

Indiana lost 56-73 at home to Michigan State on January 4 just over two weeks ago. There's no question it wants payback from that defeat. Off a big win over Wisconsin, it was only human nature that the Hoosiers would let down against Northwestern last game, and it cost them as they lost outright. The Spartans will have their full attention.

Michigan State is way overvalued right now due to its 10-game winning streak heading into this game. Plus, the Spartans are expected to be without their best player in Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg), who is listed as doubtful with a foot injury.

Indiana is 5-1-1 (83%) ATS in its last seven road games. Tom Izzo is 30-47 ATS after covering five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Michigan State. Roll with Indiana Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +1.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be an underdog at home to the Indiana Pacers tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price in a game that I believe they win with ease.

After losing two of their last three games overall to the Nuggets and Thunder, I look for the Warriors to try and make a statement tonight. The defensive intensity will be there after giving up massive point totals to both the Nuggets (123) and Thunder (127).

Indiana comes in overvalued due to winning four straight games coming in. All four of those wins came at home, but the Pacers have proven to be beatable on the road, posting an 11-6 record. Golden State is 12-5 at home this season.

Plays against road favorites (INDIANA) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-25 (70.6%) ATS since 1996.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. The home team is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Warriors Monday.