20* Maryland/UConn ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Maryland -2

The Maryland Terrapins are one of the best teams in the country.  Most of the preseason media outlets picked either Maryland or North Carolina as the No. 1 ranked teams in the country.  It's hard to argue those rankings with what I've seen from both teams thus far.

Maryland is off to a 7-1 start this season, outscoring teams by 14.9 points per game.  It has beaten some quality opponents like Georgetown and Rhode Island.  Its only loss this season came as an 8-point road underdog to those North Carolina Tar Heels.  The Terrapins lost that game 81-89 and hung very tough in a hostile atmosphere.  Keep in mind that the Tar Heels got back their best player in Marcus Paige in time for that game.

Connecticut is certainly an improved team this season after missing out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  But this Huskies squad hasn't been able to beat the best competition they have faced.  They are 5-2 this season with losses to Gonzaga and Syracuse.  They did beat Michigan, but that win isn't that great considering Michigan lost to Xavier at home by 16.

Mayrland has received solid play from returning starters Melo Trimble (14.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Jake Layman (11.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg).  But the biggest reason for the hype from this team was the additions of Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter and Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon.  Both Carter (13.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Sulaimon (11.6 ppg, 52.9% 3-pointers) have lived up to the hype.

The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.  MarkTurgeon is 50-26 ATS in non-conference road games in all games he has coached.  Turgeon is 8-1 ATS in neutral court games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points as the coach of the Terrapins.  Take Maryland Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Pacers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6

I believe the Golden State Warriors winning streak comes to an end tonight.  I'm just taking the points with the Indiana Pacers for some added insurance.  This is one of the best teams that the Warriors have faced all season, and one that is fully capable of pulling off the upset here.

Indiana is 12-7 on the season.  It has won six straight home games by an average of 11.5 points per game.  That includes back-to-back blowout home wins over Chicago (104-92) and Milwaukee (123-86).  Paul George is among the early MVP favorites as he's averaging 27.6 points, including a career-high 48 in Saturday's overtime loss at Utah.

But the Pacers have now had two days off since that game to prepare for the Warriors.  The Warriors, meanwhile, are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th road game on a 7-game trip, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have already survived scares at Utah (106-103) and at Toronto (112-109) on this trip, but they aren't likely to be so fortunate against the Pacers, who are playing as well as almost anyone.

Indiana is 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Golden State, including a 104-98 win last year as 4-point home dogs.  Plays on home underdogs (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 2 days' rest, and 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight games coming in for the first time this season.  They lost in overtime to New Orleans on Friday, and after playing 45 minutes in that game, Lebron James sat out a loss to Miami the next night on Saturday.

But now the Cavaliers are well-rested and ready to go having two days off in between games.  The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd road game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days overall.

The Blazers are running on fumes right now, which is not good news for them as they won't be able to match the intensity of the Cavaliers tonight.  The Blazers also aren't a very deep team as they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to do the heavy-lifting.  Lillard played 38 minutes and McCollum 36 in a 90-88 road loss to the Bucks last night.

Portland is 8-23 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Blazers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Cleveland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* Cowboys/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Dallas +4.5

Believe it or not, the Dallas Cowboys are still within striking distance of first place in the NFC East, even with a 3-8 record. They only trail the first-place Redskins (5-6) by two games. Their only hope of winning the division comes with a win this week. So, there’s no question that the Cowboys will be laying it all on the line. They didn’t put Tony Romo on the injured reserve because, if they do make a run and make the playoffs, now it’s possible for him to come back.

”It’s part of our message to provide perspective,” coach Jason Garrett said. ”Often times you have to provide a perspective about where we are, where we are, where we want to go and how we want to do it. So that certainly will be part of the message.”

It’s not like the Cowboys have been awful without Romo. Yes, they are 0-7 without him, but five of those losses came by a touchdown or less. The problem with the Cowboys is that they rank last in the NFL in turnover differential (-12) because they’ve force the fewest turnovers (7) in the league. There is a lot of luck involved with turnovers, and it’s safe to say that the Cowboys have been on the unlucky end of the spectrum up to this point. But this isn’t a bad team.

Dallas will get a mini-bye week to get ready for this game against Washington. That’s because it last played on Thursday against Carolina in a game that quickly turned into a blowout due to two defensive touchdowns by the Panthers. The last time the Cowboys had a bye week, they returned from it to face the Giants on the road. They did lose that game 20-27, but they outplayed the Giants and should have won. They outgained the Giants by 171 yards in that game, but lost the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference.

When you look at the numbers, you could make the argument that the Cowboys are actually the better team. They rank 16th in the NFL in yardage differential (-0.6 per game) behind a gritty defense that is only giving up 332.0 yards per game. Washington ranks 25th in yardage differential (-27.1 per game), and its defense is allowing 366.6 yards per game. The Cowboys held the Dolphins to 210 total yards two weeks ago and the Panthers to 294 yards last week.

While the Cowboys have had great health this season outside of Romo and are very healthy coming into this one, the Redskins have a lot of injury concerns.  They are without CB Chris Culliver and G Kory Lichtensteiger.  They have a plethora of players questionable with nagging injuries, including DE Chris Baker, S Dashon Goldson, DE Jason Hatcher, LB Perry Riley, LB Keenan Robinson, DE Trenton Robinson, RB Chris Thompson and CB Deshazor Everett.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1983. Washington is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons. Dallas is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 road games after trailing its previous game by 14 points or more at the half. The Cowboys are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games following a loss by 14 points or more. The Redskins are 37-63 ATS in their last 100 games as a home favorites.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally healthy and are going to be a 'play-on' team going forward.  They have opened just 5-15 SU & 7-13 ATS while dealing with a ton of injuries, and that start clearly has them undervalued right now.  They should not be home dogs to the Boston Celtics Monday.

The Pelicans showed what they were capable of when healthy last time out.  They took down Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-108 as 4.5-point home dogs on Friday night.  They have since had two days off in between games to rest and get prepared for Boston.

The Celtics are certainly an improved team, but their 11-9 SU & 11-9 ATS start has them overvalued here.  They gave the Spurs all they wanted on Saturday in a 105-108 road loss.  Now, after coming so close to beating one of the best teams in the NBA, I look at this as a hangover spot.  It will also be the Celtics' 5th straight road game and the final contest in this 5-game trip.

Antony Davis is averaging 34.3 points and 14.7 rebounds in his last three games against Boston as the Celtics simply do not have an answer for him.  Tyreke Evans recently returned from injury, and Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik are healthy now.  The underdog has gone 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

New Orleans is 25-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 19-8 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two years.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +1

The Milwaukee Bucks were playing short-handed for much of the season up until the last few games.  That has led to a poor 8-13 start, but now they are getting healthy and are starting to play up to their potential.  They have won each of their last two home games in blowout fashion over the Nuggets (92-74) and Knicks (106-91).

Jabari Parker was injured for most of his rookie season.  He has slowly gotten healthier this season, and he made his first start Saturday against the Knicks and had season highs of 17 points and 35 minutes.  O.J. Mayo started at point guard and had 17 points and five assists with one turnover in 35 minutes.  Michael Carter-Williams came off the bench to add 20 points and five assists.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 9-12 this season and cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.  They had to erase a 17-point second half deficit to beat the Timberwolves on the road Saturday.  They rank last in the NBA in turnover differential (-3.3) while also ranking last in the league with 12.4 points per game off turnovers.  Those two stats right there are why the Blazers can't be trusted because they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to carry them every night.  If one of them has an off game, they don't stand much of a chance.

The Blazers are 4-7 on the road this season, while the Bucks are 6-4 at home.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Trail Blazers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly been one of the better teams in the NBA this season.  They are 11-8 straight up and have won six of their last eight games overall with their only two losses coming to Cleveland and Golden State, the two teams who were in the NBA Finals last year.

Charlotte ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 103.9 points per 100 possessions.  The improvement on the offensive end with the additions of Nicolas Batum and company have made all the difference for this team.  But the Hornets still defend well as they rank 9th in defensive efficiency at 100.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Hornets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the lowly Lakers on Sunday.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for Detroit.

The Pistons have lost each of their last three road games to Milwaukee (by 21), Oklahoma City (by 16) and Brooklyn (by 4) to fall to 4-7 on the road.  The Hornets are 8-3 at home this season.  Charlotte has won five of its last seven meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* Oklahoma/Villanova Battle of Unbeatens on Oklahoma +4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners come in as the No. 6 ranked team in the country, while the Villanova Wildcats come in as the No. 8 ranked team.  This is one of the biggest early-season non-conference games in college basketball.  But I believe the Sooners are the better team and should not be underdogs.

Oklahoma returned four starters from last year and is a legitimate threat to win the Big 12 this season.  I certainly like what I've seen from this team en route to a 5-0 start.  The Sooners went on the road and beat a very good Memphis team 84-78.  They also crushed Wisconsin 65-48 at home.  Both of those teams are better than anything that Villanova has faced thus far.

Villanova is off to a 7-0 start this season with its seven wins coming against Farleigh Dickinson, Nebraska, East Tennessee State, Akron, Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joseph's.  This will by far the toughest test for the Wildcats yet.  They only returned two starters this season and are clearly overvalued due to their 5-1 ATS record in the early going.

Buddy Hield is a National Player of the Year candidate.  He is averaging 21.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 47.2% from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range.  Head coach Lon Kruger has stated that this is the hardest-working team he's every been around, and that's a huge statement for a guy with his credentials.  The other three returning starters happen to be their next-three highest scorers in Isaiah Cousins (13.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Ryan Spangler (12.6 ppg, 9.4 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (12.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg).

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - after two consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after two straight covers as a double digit favorite are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1997.  Okalhoma is 7-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning in these spots by 19.5 points per game.  Take Oklahoma Monday.

15* Long Beach/UCLA CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +11

This is strictly a spot play.  I am going to fade the UCLA Bruins because their are coming off their biggest win in the Steve Alford era over No. 1 Kentucky on Thursday.  They beat the Wildcats 87-77 at home.  It's only human nature for a team to come out flat after such a big win, and that's what I expect from these Bruins tonight.

Yes, I realize this is also a tough spot for Long Beach State, which will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  But I've seen enough from this team to know that it is fully capable of staying within 11 points of the Bruins, and possibly pulling off the upset.

In fact, Long Beach State has managed to go 5-4 against a brutal schedule.  It has beaten the likes of BYU, Seton Hall, Colorado State and New Mexico State, which are four quality teams.  Its four losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State (twice) by 5 and 6 points, and San Diego State (by 4).  No team in the country has faced a tougher schedule than LBS, yet they've only lost one game by more than 6 points this season.

Plays on neutral court teams as an underdog (LONG BEACH ST) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  LBS beat Colorado State 83-77 as 8-point road dogs and New Mexico State 67-53 as 1-point home favorites.  Look for the solid play to continue tonight in a potential upset bid of the Bruins.  Roll with Long Beach State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -11

The Oklahoma City Thunder are highly motivated for a victory tonight as they look to bounce back from two straight tough road losses to the Hawks and Heat by a combined 8 points.  They should have no problem getting back in the win column in blowout fashion as they return home to face a team they have owned.

The Thunder are 22-3 straight up in their last 25 meetings with the Kings.  They are 13-0 in all meetings in Oklahoma City during this stretch with an average margin of victory of 13.0 points per game.  The Kings have lost 7 of their last 9 road games while surrendering an average of 114.1 points per game.  The Thunder have won their last two home games over the Nets and Pistons by an average of 13.5 points per game.

This is a brutal spot for the Kings.  They just played in a tiring 113-120 road loss to the Houston Rockets yesterday, meaning this will be the second of a back-to-back for them.  The Kings are 0-5 in 2nd of back-to-back situations this season, losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.  The Thunder have had two days off since their loss to the Heat Thursday.  Sacramento is 1-14 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are getting all the hype in the NBA right now due to their record-setting 21-0 start.  With that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to.  That has been evident of late as they've failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games.

They only won 106-103 at Utah as 7.5-point favorites, and 112-109 at Toronto as 7.5-point favorites last night.  So, they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is a very tough spot for them.  They are laying 10.5 points on the road to the Nets when they shouldn't be.

The Nets have been covering machines, but they don't get much respect.  They have gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have only lost three of their last 14 games by double-digits, so they have been extremely competitive, but the betting public continues to fail to take notice.

In fact, the Nets have played the Warriors as tough as anyone this year.  They lost 99-107 (OT) back on November 14 as 16.5-point dogs.  They actually led that game late in regulation before Andre Iguodala hit a clutch 3-pointer to force overtime.

Playing the Warriors tough is nothing new for the Nets.  The home team is 5-0 SU & in the last five meetings, and the Nets have actually won each of their last four home games this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of their last 11 meetings.  That's a perfect 11-0 system backing Brooklyn pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Saints +7

It’s now or never for the New Orleans Saints. At 4-7 on the season, the Saints are in must-win mode from here on out if they want any chance of making the playoffs. Look for them to put their best foot forward this week. That’s especially the case now that they have a chance to knock off the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, a division rival. There’s no reason to question their motivation heading into this one as a result.

New Orleans is undervalued right now due to losing three straight, including back-to-back blowout losses to the Redskins and Texans on the road. But the Saints have been much better at home this season. They are 3-2 at home with both of their losses coming by a touchdown or less. They have beaten the Falcons, Cowboys and Giants at home this season. The Superdome remains one of the toughest places to play in the NFL today.

Carolina could not be more overvalued. With its 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS record this season comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are going to be very tough to live up to here down the stretch. One of the easiest ways to see that the Panthers are laying too many points is to compare this line with their first meeting. The Panthers were 10-point home favorites in their first meeting, and that was only because Drew Brees didn’t play. If Brees would have played, that line would have been in the -4 to -5 range. Now the Panthers are 7-point road favorites in the rematch with a healthy Brees this time, when the line should be around a pick 'em or Saints favored based off the line from the first meeting.

Plus, the Panthers only beat the Saints 27-22 and failed to cover the 10-point spread in their first meeting at home. In fact, the Panthers have only beaten the Saints by more than a touchdown once in the last 11 meetings. That fact alone shows that there’s value in backing the Saints as touchdown home underdogs in this one. The Panthers aren’t going to be lucky in the turnover department forever. They have forced 16 turnovers in their last five games, and they are +10 in turnover differential in their last three games alone. That’s almost unheard of.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) – after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.

Sean Payton is 13-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans. Payton is 21-9 ATS off a road loss as the coach of New Orleans. Payton is also 11-3 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of the Saints. The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -2.5

It would be foolish to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. They simply have something special going right now. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Not only are they winning, they are dominating. They have outscored their last five opponents a combined 160-61, or by an average of 19.8 points per game.

The catalyst has been their defense, which has allowed 18 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall. The lone exception was last week when they gave up 22 points to the Bills. But the offense proved it could hold up its end of the bargain. Trailing 16-7 late in the second quarter, the Chiefs outscored the Bills 23-6 the rest of the way to earn a 30-22 victory.

I really like this matchup for the Chiefs. The Raiders are a pass-heavy offense with one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. Well, the Chiefs have been tremendous against the pass during this winning streak, allowing just 195 passing yards per game over their last five contests. The Raiders aren’t exactly flourishing offensively right now. They’ve been held to an average of 17 points per game over their last three. The Raiders haven’t been good defensively all season as they rank 27th in total defense in giving up 391 yards per game.

The Chiefs have won three of their last four meetings with the Raiders, outscoring them by an average of 14.0 points per game in the process. The only exception came last year in a 20-24 road loss. But that was a Thursday night game on a short week. The Chiefs were coming off a huge home win over the Seahawks the previous week, and it was clearly a letdown spot for them. The Raiders were 0-10 entering that game, and they took advantage of a Chiefs team ripe for the upset and won. The Chiefs have a lot more at stake now and will be focused when these teams meet up in Oakland.

What you have to love about the Chiefs when deciding to put your money on them is that they don’t turn the ball over. The haven’t committed a turnover in five straight games, and outside of a 5-turnover effort against the Broncos in Week 2, they have committed a total of three turnovers in their other 10 games combined. The Raiders have committed eight turnovers in their last four games. The road team is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, and the Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Oakland.

The Raiders are one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 35-62 ATS record in their last 97 home games. Andy Reid has gone 58-42 ATS as a visitor in his career. Oakland is 39-75 ATS in its last 114 games where the line is +3 to -3, and 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less. Kansas City is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. The Raiders are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.  Roll with the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +1

The Atlanta Falcons have had a nightmarish run here since opening 5-0. They have lost four straight and five of their six games since. Three of those losses came by a combined seven points. They certainly are a better team than they’ve shown, but they’ve simply been done in by turnovers. They have committed a combined 16 turnovers in their last six games and are -8 in turnover differential during this span. That has been the difference.

Matt Ryan isn’t known as being a quarterback who has turnover problems, so I believe it has been more of an aberration than anything. Look for the Falcons to shore up the turnovers sooner rather than later, which will result in them getting back in the win column often in the coming games. Because when you look at everything else about this team, it’s easy to see that the Falcons are one of the best teams in the NFL.

Indeed, the Falcons rank 3rd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 54.4 yards per game. The top seven teams in yardage differential are the Cardinals, Broncos, Falcons, Patriots, Seahawks, Panthers, and Bengals in that order, so they are in some elite company. They are 5th in total offense at 392.8 yards per game, and they are 11th in total defense at 338.4 yards per game. Dan Quinn has made this a vastly improved defensive team this season.

Atlanta had outscored Tampa Bay a combined 83-31 in two meetings last year before losing 20-23 (OT) at home in their first meeting this season. But that was about as fluky a loss as you could have. The Falcons outgained the Bucs 496-290 for the game, or by 206 total yards. You won’t find many instances where an NFL team outgained an opponent by 200-plus yards and lost. So, now it’s time for payback for the Falcons, who were -4 in turnover differential in the first meeting.

The Bucs have not played well at home this year. They are 2-3 at home, getting outscored by 9.0 points per game and giving up 29.6 points per game. Their only two home wins came 38-31 over Jacksonville and 10-6 over Dallas. They needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Cowboys, who were still without Tony Romo at that time.

The Falcons will get a big boost to their offense this week with the return of Devonta Freeman.  He sat out last week due to a concussion.  Freeman is one of the best backs in the NFL, rushing for 764 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 48 balls for 420 yards and two scores.  This offense certainly missed him last week, but they'll get back to being dominant on this side of the ball with him back.

While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are not.  LB Bruce Carter, DT Gerald McCoy, T Gosder Cherilus, WR Vincent Jackson, DE George Johnson and G Ali Marpet are all questionable.  Starting TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is doubtful with a shoulder injury.

Atlanta is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following four or more consecutive losses. The Falcons are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. The Falcons are 38-13-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Due to going 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall, Atlanta is also undervalued here, and there are several trends that support that theory.  Plays on road teams (ATLANTA) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 72-33 (68.8%) ATS over the last 10 years.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +7

I’ve been very impressed with how well Blaine Gabbert has played since taking over for Colin Kaepernick. He threw two touchdown passes in their 17-16 win over the Falcons in his first start. He then held his own against the Seahawks on the road, completing 22 of 34 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown without an interception. Gabbert nearly led the upset of the Cardinals last week, completing 25 of 36 passes for 318 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a 13-19 loss.  Keep in mind that that game was tied 13-13 late in the fourth quarter against one of the NFL's best teams.

The Chicago Bears are way overvalued here as 7-point favorites. They have won five games this season, but four of those wins came by a combined 10 points, so they have only covered this 7-point margin once. Amazingly, the Bears have been an underdog in all 11 games this season. So, this is the first time they’ve been favored all year. You would think they would be a small favorite with that being the case, but instead they are laying a full touchdown.  It's time to fade them now.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Bears. They are coming off their biggest win of the season last week in a 17-13 road win over the Packers, and now I expect them to come out flat off such a big victory. They had no business winning that game anyways as they were outgianed by 75 yards by the Packers. The difference was that they won the turnover battle 2-0, which is rare for a Jay Cutler-quarterbacked team.

The Bears have actually played their best football on the road this season. They have been awful at home, going 1-4 and getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. Their defense has allowed a whopping 27.8 points per game at home this year. That’s not the kind of performance that would warrant the Bears being favored by a touchdown at home.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1983. San Francisco is 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons. Chicago is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games off a close win by 7 points or less. The Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in Week 13.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -4

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL in my opinion. They have opened 9-2 this year, and their two losses were very fluky. They outgained the Steelers by 159 yards in a 13-25 road loss, and they outgained the Rams by 119 yards in a 22-24 home loss. Now they are going to want revenge on these Rams, who are reeling right now and quickly have fallen out of the playoff race with four straight losses.

The numbers tell the story for me in this one. The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 83.6 yards per game. The Rams rank 27th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 37.0 yards per game. Arizona is an elite team on both sides of the football. It ranks 1st in total offense at 410.0 yards per game, and 5th in total defense at 326.4 yards per game.  The Cardinals are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game thanks to an offense that is putting up 32.3 points per game.

St. Louis has an average defense, giving up 341.0 yards per game, but it is atrocious offensively. It ranks 31st in the NFL in total offense at 304.0 yards per game, and it is scoring just 16.9 points per game. The Rams just haven’t gotten anything from the quarterback position. Nick Foles has thrown seven touchdowns against nine interceptions this year. Case Keenum has only completed 46.2 percent of his passes this season. Whoever is under center against the Cardinals won’t be able to do enough to keep up with them in this one.

Arizona is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with St. Louis. It won by 20, 17 and 6 points in the three previous meetings before losing 22-24 at home to the Rams back on October 4th in their first meeting this year. But that was a fluky loss because the Cardinals outgained the Rams 447-328 for the game. Carson Palmer threw for 352 yards on this Rams’ defense, but the Cardinals lost the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference. The Rams won’t be so fortunate in the rematch.

The Rams are facing a lot of turmoil right now. Their 4-game losing streak has them out of the playoff hunt, and there are rumors that the team has quit on Jeff Fisher. That’s hard to argue give their recent performances. They lost at home 13-37 to the Bears three weeks ago and were outgained by 112 yards. They lost 13-16 on the road to the Ravens two weeks ago in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 175 yards. They then lost last week to the Bengals 7-31 on the road and showed no fight.

Foles is expected to to get the start.  But the Rams have some worries on defense as well.  They are expected to be without arguably their best player in DE Robert Quinn.  Also, starting CB Trumaine Johnson is doubtful for this one.  That's not good news going up against the league's top offense this weekend.

Arizona stumbled down the stretch of the regular season last year and let Seattle come back and win the division.  These players are making a point of not letting that happen again, so I love their mindset coming into this one.  Captain Patrick Peterson called a defense-only meeting to go over mistakes from last weekend. The Cardinals are trying to stay on track after losing four of six to close 2014.  ''We're all reminded of last year,'' safety Tyrann Mathieu said. ''We don't want to have that relapse again. It's very important for us to stay focused, continue to find ways to win games.''

Arizona is 8-1 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in its previous game over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cleveland Browns +10

The first time these teams played this season, the Bengals opened as 11-point home favorites. It was eventually bet up to 13 as everyone was on the Bengals. Now this line opened at Bengals -10, and it has since been bet down to 9.5. Considering there should be about a 6-point swing for home/away, the Bengals should have opened around a 5-point favorite in this game. Instead, I believe we are now getting value on the Browns here as 10-point home dogs.

This is a division rivalry game, so despite their 2-9 record, the Browns are going to show up. They would love to beat the top team in their division. I believe a big reason this line is so high is because Austin Davis is supposed to start. But Davis is better than he gets credit for, and Johnny Manziel has started the last two games against the Bengals, and he has been awful in both starts. Davis is only going to be an upgrade.

Davis replaced an injured Josh McCown against the Ravens when the Browns were down 27-20. He tied the game with 1:47 to play with a 42-yard touchdown pass to Travis Benjamin. Then, after an interception by the defense, Davis drove the Browns down to set them up for a potential game-winning field goal. Unfortunately, that kick was blocked and returned for a TD by the Ravens, but Davis did all he could to help the Browns win. He finished 7 of 10 for 77 yards and a touchdown. Remember, Davis played well for the Rams last season when forced into duty and even beat the Seahawks, so he has starting experience.

The betting public is quick to back the Bengals because they have the best ATS record (9-1-1) in the NFL. The public is quick to fade the Browns because they have going 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. This public perception has created an artificially inflated line here as oddsmakers are forced to set the number higher than it should be just to try and get some money on the Browns to offset the lopsided public action on the Bengals.

This is also a potential letdown spot for the Bengals, who know they can clinch the AFC North with a win over Pittsburgh next week. The Bengals won’t be motivated at all to face a Browns team that they’ve already beaten with that huge game against the Steelers on deck. Keep in mind that Cincinnati only led Cleveland 17-10 in the 4th quarter in their first meeting before tacking on two touchdowns in the final period.

It's also worth noting that Cincinnati TE Tyler Eifert scored three touchdowns against the Browns in their first meeting.  Well, that's big because Eifert is listed as doubtful to play this week with a stinger, and he's a huge part of their offense.  In fact, he has a team-high 12 touchdown receptions on the season.  The rest of the Bengals' receivers have a combined 11 touchdown receptions.  His loss cannot be overstated.

Plays on underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) – poor rushing team (3.5 YPR or less) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 YPR or more) after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1983.

Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 6-2 straight up in the last eight meetings. The underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings as well. The Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cincinnati is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. excellent punt return teams who average 12 or more yards per return. Look out for Travis Benjamin in the return game in this one as he’s simply a game-changer.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Michigan State -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes had their best regular season in school history with a 12-0 season.  It came out of nowhere as the Hawkeyes were picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten West Division.  They deserve a lot of credit for running the table as they played very well all season and handled their business.  But their dream of making the four-team playoff will not come true as they finally face a real test in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Iowa took advantage of a very week schedule this season.  It avoided the best four teams from the Big Ten East in Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.  It played in the Big Ten West, which was the worst division among the Power 5 conferences in my opinion.  They only beat one team that is currently ranked, which was Northwestern, which lost 38-0 to Michigan on the road.

In fact, the Hawkeyes' schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in 11 of its 12 games this season despite not having many expectations coming in.  The only game it was an underdog in, it won 10-6 at Wisconsin.  But the Hawkeyes should have never won that game.  They were outgained 221-320 by Wisconsin, or by 99 total yards.  The Badgers committed four turnovers, including one on the Iowa 1-yard line as they were going in for what would have been the game-winning score.  The Badgers are down this season anyways, so that's not as good of a win as it would have been in year's past for the Hawkeyes.

Heck, Nebraska was supposed to contend for a Big Ten West title, and it was down this season as well.  The Huskers finished just 5-7, but they arguably outplayed Iowa despite losing 20-28 last week.  Nebraska outgained Iowa 433-250 for the game, but again it committed four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown to gift-wrap the victory for the Hawks.  Are you seeing a trend here?  Iowa needs to create turnovers to win games.

But Michigan State isn't the type of team that's going to gift-wrap the game for Iowa.  The Spartans play sound football in all phases and take care of the ball.  In fact, they have committed just 11 turnovers in 12 games this season, which is obviously less than one per game.  For Iowa to have any chance, it is going to have to win the turnover battle, but I don't see that happening against Mark Dantonio's well-coached Spartans.

While Iowa played a cake schedule, Michigan State earned its trip to the Big Ten Championship by winning one of the best divisions in the country in the Big Ten East.  It played Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State and beat all three.  It even beat both Ohio State and Michigan on the road, while thumping Penn State at home 55-16 last week.  Many will say that the Spartans were lucky to beat Michigan, but they outplayed the Wolverines in that game and outgained them by 156 yards, so I beg to differ.

Michigan State also played Oregon out of conference, which was a much tougher game than any non-conference game that Iowa played.  Iowa's toughest non-conference game came at home against Pittsburgh, and it needed a 57-yard field goal on the last play to beat the Panthers.  Michigan State played its best against its best opponents, holding Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State to 207 yards per game below their season averages.  In Iowa's two biggest games, it was outgained by 183 yards by Nebraska and 99 yards by Wisconsin.

Yes, Michigan State lost to Nebraska 39-38 on the road, but only because of a questionable call at the end of the game.  Unlike Iowa, Michigan State actually did whatever it wanted to offensively against Nebraska, gaining 491 total yards behind 335 yards and four passing touchdowns from Connor Cook.

I simply trust Cook more than Iowa's C.J. Beathard here.  Cook is a senior quarterback who has been in numerous big games before, while Beathard is a first-year starter who hasn't been tested much with the game on the line.  That's because the Hawkeyes have never trailed in the 4th quarter of any game this season.  I believe the Hawkeyes will be trailing in the 4th quarter of this one, and Beathard won't have the goods to deliver because he hasn't been in that situation before, and he certainly hasn't played in as many big games as Cook.

This is a great matchup for the Spartans.  They boast an elite run defense that gives up 118 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against opponents that average 193 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  Stopping the run will be key because Iowa averages 42 rushing attempts and 204 yards per game, compared to 26 passing attempts and 201 yards per game.  Look for Michigan State to stop the running game and take Iowa out of its comfort zone, having to lean on Beathard more than they're used to in this one.

While Iowa has struggled down the stretch in winning three of its last four games by a touchdown or less, Michigan State has saved its best football for last, especially defensively.  The Spartans held Maryland to 7 points, 289 yards and forced five turnovers three weeks ago, then held Ohio State's high-powered attack to just 14 points and 152 total yards two weeks ago, then forced four more turnovers and held Penn State to 16 points last week.  I simply believe the Spartans are playing the better football coming into this one, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are finally near full strength health-wise for the first time all year.

These teams have four common opponents this season.  Michigan State is averaging 424.8 yards per game and giving up 369.5 yards per game against those four teams, outgaining them by 55.3 yards per game.  Iowa is averaging 349.3 yards per game and allowing 371.5 yards per game against those four teams, actually getting outgained by 22.2 yards per game.  Common opponents suggest that the Spartans are the better team as well.

Iowa's strength defensively is stopping the run as well, but that won't be as much of a factor in this game as it is against most teams.  That's because Michigan State is a primary passing team behind Cook.  The senior has been superb, throwing for 2,720 yards and 24 touchdowns against only four interceptions this season.  He should have a big day against an Iowa defense that has been susceptible against good passing offenses.  The Hawkeyes allowed 317 passing yards to Illinois, 301 to Minnesota, 268 to Purdue and 296 to Nebraska, and the latter three games have come over the past three weeks.

Michigan state is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three years.  Michigan State is 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Spartans.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* UNC/Clemson ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -4

Fading Clemson has been a very profitable move here down the stretch.  It is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  I have faded Clemson in three of those games as they failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites in a 10-point win over Florida State, as 30-point favorites in a 10-point win at Syracuse, and as 29-point favorites in a 20-point home win over Wake Forest.

The Tigers were clearly overvalued down the stretch because they were the No. 1 team in the country.  But now I believe the price is right to back them as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina.  They have simply come too far to lose now, and this is the smallest favorites they've been since their win over Notre Dame.

But most importantly, I believe Clemson is actually the better team.  It is outgaining its ACC opponents by 272 yards per game behind an explosive offense that is putting up 38.0 points and 536.2 yards per game.  Its defense is only giving up 19.0 points and 264.7 yards per game in ACC play as well.

North Carolina had a great season, but it took advantage of playing in one of the worst divisions in the country in the ACC Coastal and avoiding the top three teams from the Atlantic in Clemson, FSU and Louisville.  Yet, the Tar Heels only outgained their ACC opponents by 80 yards per game this season.  A lot has been made of UNC's improved defense, but it is still a below-average unit that actually allows 28 more yards per game than its opponents average on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, too.  These teams have five opponents in common.  Clemson is 5-0 against them outscoring them by 23.4 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 295 yards per game.  UNC is 4-1 against those same five teams, outscoring them by 17.6 points per game but outgaining them by only 74.2 yards per game.  Those numbers clearly indicate that the Tigers are by far the superior team.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Clemson is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game.  Dabo Swinney is 8-1 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson.  Swinney is 12-4 ATS in road games after scoring 37 or more points as the coach of the Tigers.  Clemson has won seven of the last nine meetings while totaling 109 points in the last two meetings.  The Tigers beat North Carolina 50-35 at home last year.  Roll with Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/T'Wolves OVER 203

Look for a high-scoring affair tonight between the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves.  It's almost always a shootout when these teams get together, and I don't expect anything different tonight.

The Blazers are coming off a 227-point effort at home against Dallas and a 234-point effort at home against Indiana.  What's amazing about those two performances is that neither team shot the ball that well, but they just played at such a frantic pace that they went well over the posted totals of 201 and 202.5, respectively.

What I also love about this play is the recent head-to-head history in the series.  The Blazers and Timberwolves have combined for 207, 207 and 234 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 216.0 combined points per game, which is 13 points more than this 203-point total.  Also, the OVER is 414-5-2 in the last 21 meetings, including 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.

Minnesota is is 10-0 to the OVER off a game with 15 or less assists over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 38-16-2 in Trail Blazers last 56 Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Portland is 27-14 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

I believe UMass (5-1) is a much better team than Ole Miss (5-2) and should be a heavier favorite today.  This is essentially a home game for the Minutemen to boot, at will be played at the MassMutual Center in Springfield, MA.

UMass beat a very good Clemson team 82-65 as 7.5-point underdogs to really open my eyes.  It is coming off a 30-point win over Boson last time out.  But the  numbers tell the story for me.  UMass is averaging 83.3 points against teams that only allow 73.4 points, and it is allowing 72.5 points against teams that average 76.5.  That's the sign of a very good team.

Ole Miss already has a 6-point loss to George Mason and a 12-point loss to Seton Hall, both on neutral courts, which are two average teams that aren't as good as UMass.  Ole Miss is only a slightly better-than-average team when you look at the numbers.  It is putting up 72.6 points per game against teams that allow 70.6, and allowing 66.3 points per game against teams that score 69.7 on average.

The Minutemen have three absolute studs that carry them every game.  Jabarie Hinds (19.7 ppg, 5.5 apg), Trey Davis (18.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Donte Clark (16.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg) are the best trio in the Atlantic 10 in my book.  All three are deadly from 3-point range.  Hinds shoots 48.6%, Davis 47.4% and Clark 38.9%.   It's no wonder this team is putting up over 83 points per game this year.

UMass is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games.  The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Rebels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Nevada +10.5

Nevada is certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  It returned four starters from last year and is off to a 5-2 start this season.  Its two losses have come to Hawaii and CS-Fullerton both on the road by a combined 10 points.  The Wolf Pack have five players scoring in double figures, and seven players averaging at least 8.6 points, so they play team basketball.

The numbers show to me that Nevada can hang with this Oregon State outfit.  Nevada is averaging 80.9 points per game against teams that allow 75.6, and it is giving up 68.7 points per game against teams that score 74.9 on average.  Those are some impressive numbers to say the least.

Oregon State is too reliant on one player for my liking.  Gary Payton II is a great player, but he is asked to do too much for this team.  The Bears are scoring 75.2 points per game against teams that allow 73, and they are allowing 64.3 against teams that average 69.8.  Solid numbers, but not quite as good as what Nevada has done.  If anything, you could argue that Nevada is the better team, yet it is catching double-digit points.

The Beavers are 1-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Beavers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oregon State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Southern Miss +7.5

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles may be the single-most underrated team in all of college football.  They went 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread for bettors who were willing to back them this season.  They also went 7-1 within the conference and won the C-USA West Title for the right to play in the conference championship game.

But the betting public still hasn't caught on to how good this team really is.  It's easy to see why considering Southern Miss went a combined 4-32 over the previous three seasons before this impressive 2015 campaign.  But the numbers don't lie, the Golden Eagles are the best team in Conference USA and should not be an underdog to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the championship game.

Common opponents are my favorite way to compare teams.  Southern Miss and WKU had five common opponents this season.  Southern Miss outscored those five opponents by an average of 25.6 points per game and outgained them by an average of 248.2 yards per game.  Western Kentucky outscored those five opponents by 23.0 points per game and outgained them by 179.6 yards per game.  That right there shows that the Golden Eagles are the better team in my book.

Southern Miss has only gotten better as the season has gone on, too.  It has won each of its last six games all by 21 points or more.  The one game that really stands out to me was last week against Louisiana Tech with the C-USA West title on the line.  Southern Miss went on the road and beat the Bulldogs 58-24 as 5-point underdogs.  They Golden Eagles racked up 555 total yards and outgained the Bulldogs by 150 for the game.

Louisiana Tech is a common opponent between these teams, and the best team from Conference USA that either faced all season.  Western Kentucky faced LA Tech at home, yet only won 41-38 as 2.5-point underdogs.  The Hilltoppers allowed 580 total yards to Louisiana Tech in that game and were fortunate to win.

I really like the balance of this Southern Miss offense, too.  It is averaging 195 rushing yards per gam eand 5.3 per carry, while also putting up 340 passing yards per game and 8.8 yards per attempt.  That's an average of 535 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles are vastly improved on defense, too, giving up 22.4 points per game, 351.0 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  Western Kentucky is a worse defensive team, allowing 25.0 points, 393 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games off a win by 21 points or more.  Southern Miss is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over its last three games.  The Hilltoppers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 70

The Northern Illinois Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback now in true freshman Tommy Fiedler.  He played late in the second half against Ohio last week after Ryan Graham went down with a leg injury in the third quarter.  Graham had taken the place of Drew Hare before him.

It's safe to say that this Northern Illinois offense is only a shell of what it was with Hare at quarterback.  Graham played admirably, but he's no Hare.  And Fiedler is worse than Graham.  Fiedler actually came to Northern Illinois as a fifth-string quarterback, but Antony Maddie and fellow freshman Daniel Santacaterina also are dealing with injuries.

"We feel good where Tommy's at," NIU head coach Rod Carey said. "If we could have everybody healthy would we choose Tommy? Probably not. But Tommy is ready for it and he's excited about it."

The good news is that NIU is a primary running team anyways, averaging 48 rushing attempts and 213 yards per game.  Look for the NIU offense to take its time, run the football, and try and shorten this game as much as possible.  It knows that it stands no chance against Bowling Green's high-powered offense in a shootout.  That strategy for the Huskies is going to help aid this under.

Northern Illinois can rely on a defense that gives up 24.8 points, 392 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opponents that average 26.8 points, 395 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, the Huskies have an above-average defense as they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season.

Bowling Green is actually an above-average defensive team that doesn't get much credit on that side of the ball.  It is allowing 5.4 yards per play against opponents that average 5.5 per play on offense.  The Falcons have been much better defensively of late, giving up 27 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall, including 10 or fewer in three of those.

What really stands out to me is the head-to-head history in this series.  The Falcons and Huskies have combined for 68 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings, which is a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 70 points.  They have combined to average 50.2 points per game in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than this 70-point total as well.

Bowling Green is 6-0 to the UNDER against good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Northern Illinois is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Falcons are 12-2 to the UNDER after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are a better team than they've shown during their 7-12 start to the season.  But they have dealt with a plethora of injuries for most of the year, and they are finally healthy for the first time.  Because of this slow start, they are undervalued right now, so it's time to get on board with the Bucks in the near future now that they've returned to near full strength health-wise.

The Detroit Pistons come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers over the Rockets and Suns at home.  I like this Detroit team, but I don't believe it should be laying 6.5 points to the Bucks, who are pretty much its equals when healthy.  But the recent head-to-head history shows that the Bucks have owned the Pistons.

Indeed, the Bucks are 4-0 straight up in their last four meetings with the Pistons, winning by 21, 15, 16 and 12 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.0 points per game.  In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meeting with the Pistons.  They haven't lost to Detroit by more than 5 points in any of their last seven meetings.

Plays on road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Detroit.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +8

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd returned four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg LY) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

It hasn't been the best start for the Herd, who are 0-4 thanks to a brutal schedule.  They have played three road games already and were an underdog of 13.5, 11.5 and 7.5 points in those games.  They were also a 3-point home underdog to James Madison.  They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, which has them undervalued coming into this game.  The Herd will be highly motivated to get their first win of the season, and I believe they have a great chance to get it against Akron.

Akron is off to a 5-2 start this season, which includes a win over Arkansas.  But Akron only beat Coppin State 77-71 at home last time out, which was on Wednesday night.  That means Akron has only had one day in between games to get ready for Marshall, and that's not enough time to prepare for D'Antoni's fast-paced system.  That scheduling disadvantage is a great a reason as any to fade the Zips tonight.

Marshall played Akron extremely tough in its last two meetings.  It lost 70-63 on the road last season as 12.5-point underdogs, and 58-59 on the road two seasons ago as 11.5-point dogs.  So, the Herd will also be out for revenge from those two losses by a combined eight points to the Zips.  I think they'll have a great chance to get it considering they will be at home this time around.

Plays on any team (MARSHALL) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (less than 63 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more two straight games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Akron is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, actually losing in this spot by an average of 4.3 points per game.  Take Marshall Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1

The USC Trojans are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the Pac-12.  They didn't disappoint in their first five games, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, which included an upset victory over Wichita State.

But they have gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost to one of the best teams in the country in Xavier by 10, and followed that up with a 10-point loss to Monmouth, which is one of the best small-conference teams in the land.  They certainly suffered a hangover from that Xavier loss against Monmouth, and they had already beaten Monmouth by 11 at home earlier this season, so they weren't motivated to face them again.  Now the Trojans will be hungry to snap this 2-game skid tonight.

I have not been impressed with UC-Santa Barbara during its 2-3 start.  Its two wins have come against Nebraska-Omaha and San Francisco by a combined 8 points.  The three losses have come against fellow Pac-12 teams in California (by 18), Oregon State (by 12) and Arizona State (by 2).  I believe USC is right on par with Oregon State and better than Arizona State.

The Trojans are scoring 84.6 points per game and shooting 46.4% against teams that only allow 72 points per game and shoot 42.2%.  Their defense has also been vastly improved, giving up 37.8% shooting against teams that average 41.4% shooting.

USC is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  USC is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Roll with USC Thursday.

20* Packers/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay -3

The advanced line on this game last Tuesday was Packers -6. But with the Packers losing to the Bears last week and the Lions crushing the Eagles, this line has been bet all the way down to Packers -3. There is a lot of action on the Lions coming into this one, and I believe it’s an overreaction to last week’s results. The value is now with the Packers laying only a field goal here.

Green Bay has lost four of its last five games overall to fall out of first place in the NFC North. It now trails Minnesota by one game and needs a win this week to get back on track. When you look at the recent losses to the Lions and Bears, it’s clear that the Packers outplayed both teams and should have won. They outgained the Lions 372-287 for the game, or by 85 total yards, in a 16-18 loss. They also outgained the Bears 365-290, or by 75 total yards, in a 13-17 loss.

As you can see, the Packers are dominating defensively of late. They have held their last three opponents to an average of 16.0 points and 306.0 yards per game. Now, it’s up to Aaron Rodgers and offense to hold up their end of the bargain. I believe they will in perfect conditions this week inside Ford Field. It’s not like the Lions are all of a sudden an elite defensive team as they still allow 26.2 points per game this year.

Rodgers called out his teammates on offense for not studying the playbook enough. You can bet that after losing the way they did to the Bears with Brett Favre’s jersey getting retired, and Bart Starr being in attendance, that loss did not sit well with these players. Look for a much more focused, prepared and determined Packers team to hit the field Thursday night. That’s especially the case now that they trail the Vikings in the division, and the fact that they want revenge on the Lions.

Detroit is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games vs. teams who commit one or less turnovers per game in the second half of the season. The Packers are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss by 6 points or less. Green Bay is 59-36 ATS in its last 95 December games. The Lions are 12-32 ATS in their last 44 games after having won three of their last four games coming in. The Packers are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 vs. NFC North opponents. The Lions are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 December games.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

15* Thunder/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder had won four straight before falling 100-106 at Atlanta last time out.  They had a rare off night shooting just 39.8% in the loss after topping 52% in three of their previous four games.  Look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They have played one of the easiest schedules in the league to this point.  Against the three best teams they faced in Cleveland, Atlanta and Indiana, they lost.  Now this will be their toughest test of the season against a fully healthy OKC team that ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency at 107.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder owned the Heat in their two meetings last year.  They won 94-86 at home as 7.5-point favorites, and 93-75 on the road as 4-point favorites.  Kevin Durant only played in one of those two games.  But Durant has returned to the lineup for the past four games, and this team is so much better with him.

Miami is 1-10 ATS versus teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game ovre the last two seasons.  OKC is 68-41 ATS in its last 109 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Thunder are 70-41 ATS in their last 111 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Thunder Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on BYU +8.5

BYU is a team I have my eye on after it went 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament.  That's because it returned three starters, led by Kyle Collinsworth (13.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 6.0 apg), who had an NCAA-record six triple-doubles last year.

The Cougars are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point at Long Beach State.  Collinsworth (15.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 6.2 apg) is among five players scoring in double figures.  Nick Emery (15.4 ppg, 4.0 apg) is a former Utah Mr. Basketball.  Kyle Davis (12.2 ppg, 12.0 rpg) is a beast on the boards, Chase Fischer (11.4 ppg) is a sharpshooper, and Corbin Kaufusi (10.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg) does the dirty work.

Utah hasn't impressed me at all this season and should not be laying 8.5 points here.  Yes, it is off to a 5-1 start, but four of those victories have come by 11 points or less.  The Utes only beat Southern Utah by 11 as 24.5-point home favorites, San Diego State by 5 as 5-point home favorites, Texas Tech by 10 as 8.5-point favorites, and Temple by 6 as 6.5-point favorites.  They also lost to the best team they've played in Miami by a final of 66-90, which is a game that shows me they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago.

Utah's strength is its big men, but the Cougars clearly have the answer in the post.  They are outrebounding their opponents 51-35 this season, while the Utes are only outrebounding foes 39-33.  The Cougars are outscoring foes by 18.4 points per game this season, while the Utes are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game.  The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Roll with BYU Wednesday.

15* Indiana/Duke ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Indiana +10.5

The Indiana Hoosiers have suffered two losses already, which has them undervalued here.  Their two losses came to Wake Forest and UNLV by a combined seven points as they simply couldn't get it done down the stretch.  But this is still one of the best teams in the country, and the Hoosiers have no business being double-digit underdogs to Duke here.

Indiana returned four starters from last year and added in big man Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), who is shooting 70.2 percent from the floor and also gives them a defensive presence in the pain that they didn't have last year.  James Blackmon (17.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Yogi Ferrell (156.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) give the Hoosiers one of the best guard tandems in the country.  Troy Williams (11.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) does a little bit of everything.

Duke only returned one starter this year, and it is still a work in progress.  The Blue Devils lost their toughest game 63-74 to Kentucky.  They also only beat VCU by 8 as 10-point favorites and Georgetown by 2 as 6-point favorites.  But they are coming off two straight covers against Yale and Utah State, which I believe has them overvalued here as 10-point favorites.

Indiana can score with anyone.  It is putting up 88.3 points per game on 54.7% shooting this season.  Its defense is improved as well as it is allowing 69.6 points per game against opponents that average 74.1 points per game, so this is finally an above-average defensive squad.  Duke gives up 70.1 points per game against opponents that average 73.8, so the Blue Devils are only slightly above average on that end as well.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons.  They haven't covered in three of their last four, which I believe has provided some extra value here.  Bet Indiana Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks OVER 196.5

I believe the books have set the bar too low in this matchup between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks tonight.  Look for a high-scoring affair with both teams topping 100 points in this one as it sails well OVER the posted total of 196.5.

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA.  The Hawks rank 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 104.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors are right behind them in 7th at 103.0 points per 100 possessions.

Recent meetings tell the story for me.  The Hawks and Raptors have combined for 199 or more points in three of their last four meetings, all of which occurred last season.  The only exception was a 185-point effort last year in which the Hawks shot a season-low 33.0% from the floor, including 8-of-38 (21.1%) from 3-point range.  They still combined to average 209.0 combined points per game in their four meetings last year even with that 185-point effort.

Toronto is 11-1 to the OVER in road games after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Atlanta.  Toronto is 60-31 to the OVER in its last 91 road games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +10

The Denver Nuggets could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and this awful stretch has the betting public wanting to avoid them at all costs. But this is the time to buy low on the Nuggets tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Bulls.

Chicago is in a massive letdown spot here.  It is coming off a huge 92-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs last time out, and it's going to be hard for the Bulls to get up for this game against the Nuggets off such a big victory.

Both meetings between these teams last year were decided by exactly five points, and the Nuggets weren't very good last year.  They won by 5 at home and lost by 5 on the road as 10.5-point dogs.  I have no doubt that they can stay within double-digits of the Bulls once again.

Also, the Nuggets are 6-2 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Bulls.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 5 points to the Bulls once in the last 11 meetings.  That's a 10-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -12

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned four starters from last year for first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08.  They also added in one of the top freshmen in the country in Malik Newman.

While Mississippi State is just 3-3 this season, it has not disappointed against the spread, going 4-1 ATS in its five lined games.  It has covered three straight coming in, which includes back-to-back blowout wins over Missouri State by 14 as 6-point favorites and Tennessee-Martin by 25 as 10.5-point favorites.

All four returning starters are playing a big role already in Gavin Ware (20.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg), I.J. Ready (12.8 ppg, 5.5 apg), Craig Sword (11.8 ppg) and Travis Daniels (8.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  Newman (11.4 ppg) is still trying to find his footing, but it won't be long before he becomes one of the better players in the country.

Texas Southern is just 1-5 this season with its only win coming at home against Texas-San Antonio.  It is 0-5 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 18.0 points per game.  Texas Southern lost by 29 at New Mexico, by 23 at Creighton, by 20 at Clemson and by 12 at Washington State.  I believe Mississippi State is as good or better as all four of those teams that Texas Southern lost by 12 points or more to on the road.

The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on a home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans return home from a tough 3-game road trip.  They had won three straight prior to falling to both the Clippers and Jazz on the road in their last two games.  I look for them to bounce back with a victory now that they are back at home, where they have won their last two over the Spurs (104-90) and Suns (122-116).

The Grizzlies haven't exactly been that great on the road this season, going 4-5 overall, including 2-4 in their last six road contests.  I believe they come in overvalued here due to winning seven of their last nine games overall.

Reinforcements are finally on the way for the Pelicans.  Both Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole are expected to make their season debuts tonight.  Evans was second on the team in scoring last year at 16.6 points per game, but he also chipped in 6.6 assists and 5.3 rebounds.  He was a huge reason for their success.  Cole averaged 9.9 points in 28 games off the bench last year after being acquired from Miami.

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last year as these teams split the season series 2-2 with the home team going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  I look for that trend to continue here.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Grizzlies are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on William & Mary -3.5

Coach Tony Shaver has built William & Mary into a program that competes at the upper echelon of the Colonial Athletic Association every year.  This is a team that went 20-13 last year and tied for first atop the conference with a 12-6 CAA mark.

Shaver returns four starters from that team in Omar Prewitt (13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg LY), Terry Tarpey (11.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg), Daniel Dixon (11.1 ppg) and Sean Sheldon (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  Those four have been the leading scorers for this team during a 4-2 start in 2015-16.  Prewitt (17.3. ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Sixon (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been sensational, while Tarpey (10.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Sheldon (8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are having fine seasons as well.

William & Mary's two losses this season have come to Dayton and Howard, both on the road, by a combined 5 points.  The 66-69 loss at Dayton as 9.5-point road dogs was especially impressive.  But it wasn't as impressive as William & Mary's 85-68 upset win at NC State as 12.5-point underdogs.  That effort signified that the Tribe would be a tough team to deal with this season.

Old Dominion is 3-0 at home this year with wins against overmatched opponents like Niagara, Buffalo and Morgan State.  But it is 0-3 on the road/neutral site games with a blowout loss to Purdue 39-61, a loss to St. Joe's (64-66), and a loss to VCU (67-76).  The Monarchs are only averaging 56.7 points on 34.5% shooting on the road.  The Tribe are averaging 85.5 points on 46.8% shooting at home this year, and 78.2 points on 48.3% shooting in all games, including 41.3% from 3-point range.

William & Mary is 16-4 ATS vs teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three  seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  The Monarchs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tribe are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  The home team won both meetings between these teams last year.  The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take William & Mary Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +8

This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers.  The betting public is starting to back them again because they have won three of their last four, but those three wins have come against Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota.  They also lost at home to the Jazz 91-102 during this stretch.

But the real reason to fade the Clippers is because they are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back off their 107-99 win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  Not only that, they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, as well as their 8th game in 12 days.  That's about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.

The Blazers, meanwhile, come in on one days' rest after beating the Lakers 108-96 at home on Saturday.  In fact, they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  This is a young team that will be playing with a lot more energy than the Clippers tonight, and thus they will cover this 8-point spread with ease.

I also like how tough the Blazers have played the Clippers in recent meetings.  They beat Los Angeles 102-91 on November 20 at home in their first meeting as 4.5-point underdogs.  Get this: Each of the previous seven meetings between these teams were decided by 6 points or less.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well, so the 8 points is going to come into play.  The Blazers haven't lost by more than 6 to the Clippers in any of the last 8 meetings.

The Clippers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 November home games.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games, and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  They are 18-0 and have covered six straight coming in, and the betting public continues to back them night in and night out.  It's now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points on the road to the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They aren't a fancy team like the Warriors, but they simply get the job done.  They have gone 8-7 straight up and 9-5-1 ATS in all games this season.  I really like this team because they play suffocating defense, giving up just 93.2 points per game.

Last year, the Warriors rolled into Sal Lake City in their final meeting and lost 100-110 despite being 10-point favorites.  Utah is now 31-8 straight up in its last 39 home meetings with the Warriors.

Utah is 38-24 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on one days' rest.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Jazz Monday.

20* Ravens/Browns ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -2.5

Just about every factor heading into this game favors the Browns laying 2.5 points against the Ravens. I cannot think of one good reason to back the Ravens in this one at this current price. I fully expect the Browns to win this game by at least a field goal, and likely more given everything that’s working in their favor.

For starters, Baltimore is going to be without its three best players on offense. Quarterback Joe Flacco suffered a torn ACL against the Rams last week and is out for the season. Leading rusher Justin Forsett broke his arm against the Rams and is also out for the year. Leading receiver Steve Smith suffered a torn Achilles a few weeks back and is done for the season as well. It’s just too hard to overcome these types of injuries when you’re already not that good.

Secondly, the Browns have had two full weeks to prepare for the Ravens. That should help them regroup and refocus after losing five straight games coming into this one. There’s no question that this team is undervalued right now due to failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games. But they’ve faced a very difficult schedule during this stretch with three road games at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and St. Louis, as well as a home meeting with Arizona. They finally can catch their breath here against a much lesser opponent in the Ravens.

Third, it was a blessing in disguise for Johnny Manziel to be out partying last weekend. He has now been demoted as the starter, and in his place will be Josh McCown, who is now healthy after the bye week. This offense has been so much better with McCown under center. He is completing 65.0 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards with 11 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.

McCown had a monster day in a 33-30 road win over Baltimore back on October 11 in their first meeting of the season. This game wasn’t as close as the final score as the Browns outgained the Ravens 505-377, or by 128 total yards. McCown threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in the win. He should be able to find more success this week against this struggling Baltimore defense.

The Ravens are 1-7-2 ATS in all games this season. Baltimore is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. losing teams. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Ravens.  Bet the Browns Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are finally healthy and playing up to their potential.  They have won four straight, the last three of which came once Kevin Durant came back from injury.  They have won by 22, 11 and 16 points with Durant back in the lineup.

Now the Thunder have had ample rest heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks.  They last played on Friday in a 103-87 home win over the Pistons.  They have had two days off in between games.  The Hawks, meanwhile, will be playing their 5th game in 7 days after an 88-108 loss at San Antonio on Saturday.

The Thunder will have a huge edge on the board in this one.  They lead the NBA in rebounding margin (plus-7.7) and outrebounded Detroit 58-38 last time out while holding Andre Drummond to seven boards.  Atlanta was outrebounded 49-43 by San Antonio and ranks near the bottom of the league with a minus-3.7 margin this season.

The Thunder did lose their last trip to Atlanta, but haven't lost consecutive road games to the Hawks since 1993-94 when the franchise was based in Seattle.  They have won nine of their last 12 trips to Atlanta.  The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road meetings.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Illinois State +20

Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.  A 3-4 start doesn't do this team justice, but the Redbirds are now undervalued as a result.  This start can be attributed to a brutal schedule.

The Redbirds lost on the road to San Diego State 60-71 in the opener.  They held a 2-point lead over No. 1 Maryland with just six minutes to go before giving way in a 66-77 loss.  Those two efforts right there show that the Redbirds can play with the best teams in the country.

Kentucky is clearly overvalued right now due to its No. 1 national ranking.  The Wildcats are 6-0, but they are just 2-4 ATS.  Five of their six wins have come by 21 points or less, and the lone exception was a 30-point home win over New Jersey Tech.  They beat Albany at home by 13, Wright State at home by 15, Boson at home by 20, and South Florida on a neutral court by 21.  Illinois State is better than all four of those teams.

"We're playing a good team. Illinois State. I watched their Maryland game. They had Maryland beat. They've got a quick guard, (Paris) Lee. I'm not sure what we'll be able to do with him. They've got a kid, (DeVaughn Akoon-) Purcell, that's scoring 16, 17 a game." Kentucky head coach John Calipari said.  "Will be a tough matchup for us depending on how we play. They've got some veteran guys."

Kentucky is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.  The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Illinois State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -2

The Xavier Musketeers are showing great value as only 2-point favorites over the Dayton Flyers Sunday in the Championship Game of this Advocare Invitational Tournament.  I'll gladly back them as small favorites here when they should be laying more points.

Both teams are undefeated this season, but that's about where the similarities stop.  I've been much more impressed with Xavier's 6-0 start than Dayton's 5-0 effort.  The Flyers are very fortunate to be 5-0 as their last three wins have come by 3, 5 and 3 points against William & Mary, Iowa and Monmouth.

Xavier has been much more dominant, going 6-0 while winning all 6 games by 9 points or more.  That includes a 12-point home win over Missouri, a 16-point road win at Michigan, a 19-point win over Alabama on a neutral court, and a 10-point win over USC on a neutral court.

Dayton is without its top two players from last year.  Jordan Sibert (16.1 ppg) graduated, while Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg) has been suspended indefinitely.  This was an NCAA Tournament team last year, but without those two, I have my doubts that the Flyers can get back to the big dance.

Xavier is 9-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 39% or less over the last three years.  Roll with Xavier Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are about as undervalued as they could get right now.  That's because they have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall behind some atrocious defense.  But this should be a good defensive teams with the length they have at all positions, so it's not going to last.

Plus, Jason Kidd returns from his one-game suspension after being apart from the team in a 90-114 loss at Orlando on Friday.  Look for the Bucks to lay it all on the line tonight to turn this around, and for that to really show on the defensive end against the Hornets in this one.

Charlotte had won four straight before a 90-95 home loss to the Cavaliers on Friday.  The Hornets are overvalued due to this recent run.  I certainly expect them to suffer a hangover from that loss to the Cavaliers as they simply couldn't get it done in the 4th quarter.  It's going to be hard to want to play the Bucks after facing a team like Cleveland.

Three of the last five meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, with the latest being a 104-94 road win by the Bucks on December 29th of last season.  These games typically go down to the wire when the Bucks and Hornets get together, so the 6.5 points her could certainly come into play.

Milwaukee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games with a total set of 200 or more points.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -1

The Atlanta Falcons have lost three straight and desperately need a win to get back on track as they are clinging on to the final wild card spot in the NFC.  I look for them to put forth their most inspired effort of the season Sunday at home against the Minnesota Vikings.  In fact, this is my favorite play of the entire 2015 season, which is why it has earned the 25* GAME OF THE YEAR title.

Atlanta's last three losses have all come by three points or less and by a combined seven points.  They have beaten themselves by committing eight turnovers, most of which are on Matt Ryan's shoulders.  But this guy takes care of the football, and I believe it has been more of an aberration than anything.

The numbers show that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL.  Indeed, they rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 63.8 yards per game.  Only the Cardinals, Patriots and Seahawks have been better, and teams like the Broncos (5th), Panthers (6th) and Bengals (7th) are right below them, so it's safe to say that they are in elite company with this all-important yardage differential stat.

The Falcons still boast an elite offense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 399.5 yards per game.  But it's the improvement they've made defensively under the guidance of head coach Dan Quinn that had made the biggest difference.  The Falcons rank a very respectable 11th in the NFL in total defense at 335.7 yards per game, which is only one spot behind the 10th-place Vikings (334.9 YPG).

Minnesota could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  It is 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and the betting public has taken notice.  Heck, the Vikings were even favored over the Packers last week as the oddsmakers over-adjusted.  The Packers won that game 30-13, and now the Vikings are in a serious hangover spot here from that defeat.  But somehow they are nearly favored against the Falcons here, and this -1/+1 line indicates the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field.  Atlanta is the better team, so the oddsmakers have that wrong.

Minnesota actually ranks in the bottom half of the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by 4.9 yards per game on the season.  That's right, the Vikings have somehow managed to go 7-3 despite getting outgained on the year.  They are clearly frauds, and their 29th-ranked offense (330.0 yards/game) leaves a lot to be desired.

Teddy Bridgewater has an 8-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season and is pretty much a liability.  The Vikings rely mostly on the run to move the football, which makes this an excellent matchup for the Falcons.  Indeed, the Falcons rank 1st in the league against the run, giving up just 87.4 yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  This couldn't possibly a worse matchup for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

Because they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, the Falcons couldn't possibly be more undervalued right now, either.  Now all they have to do is win the game at home to cover the number because there are essentially no points involved.  This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, so do not be shy with your wagers.  It's also worth noting that the home team has won four of the last five meetings.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are currently ranked No. 4 after their 4-0 start that has seen them dominate the competition.  First-year head coach Steve Prohm stepped into a great situation with four returning starters, and everyone has bought in as he has been playing pretty much the same system that Fred Hoiberg did before him, only he emphasizes defense more.

The Cyclones are hitting on all cylinders  offensively.  They are scoring 89.0 points per game on 53.0% shooting and 43.5% from 3-point range.  They average 20 assists per game as they simply share the ball as well as anyone in the country.  Defensively, they only give up 66.5 points per game on 37.8% shooting, allowing just 11 assists per game to compare.

Illinois is clearly one of the worst teams in the Big Ten with a 3-3 start this season.  It has lost to North Florida (81-93) and Chattanooga (77-81) at home, and needed a buzzer-beater to beat Chicago State 82-79 at home.  That gives these teams a couple common opponents.

Iowa State beat Chicago State 106-64 at home, or by 42 points.  Iowa State also beat Chattanooga 83-63 at home, or by 20 points.  Given those results compared to Illinois, it's easy to see why I like Iowa State to cover this generous 8.5-point spread.  The Cyclones continued to play well yesterday in a 99-77 win over VA Tech.

The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  They continue to roll against the overmatched Fighting Illini today.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this year.  They are 10-6 and have won three straight with an 11-point road win over the Lakers, an 11-point road win over the Clippers, and a 4-point home win over the Cavaliers.  They have given up an average of just 90.8 points per game in their last four as they have picked it up defensively.

The Wizards are scuffling right now.  They fell to 6-7 with their 78-111 loss to Boston on Friday.  They've allowed an average of 115.6 points per game in their losses this season as they clearly aren't putting enough emphasis on defense.  It appears that coach Randy Wittman is losing his team.

The Raptors want revenge after getting swept in four games in their opening round series to the Wizards in last year's playoffs.  I like their chances given the situation.  Toronto has had two days off having last played on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Washington will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days.  I'll take the more rested, more motivated team in this one.

Plays against home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 5-16 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.

The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 9-1 ATS when the total is 200 or more this season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These five trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Saturday

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois +3.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini have done a great job of getting into bowl contention this season despite all of the turmoil with the firing of their head coach.  At 5-6, they need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they will certainly be laying it all on the line this week against Northwestern.

Despite being 5-6 compared to 9-2 for Northwestern, I would actually argue that Illinois is the better team this season.  Its offense averages 5.0 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.1 per play, and its defense gives up 4.9 per play against offenses that average 5.5 per play.  So the Fighting Illini actually have a great defense that is allow 0.6 yards per play less than their opponents average.

Northwestern's offense is atrocious, averaging just 4.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.3 per play.  The Wildcats do have a great defense that allows 4.5 per play against opponents that average 5.4 per play.  But it's clear that the Fighting Illini have faced the more difficult schedule this season.

Northwestern is the most overrated team in the country in my opinion.  It is ranked 17th despite the fact that the Football Power Index shows that it is just the 55th-best team in the country when you factor in all the numbers.  But the Wildcats are overvalued due to their fluke win over Wisconsin last week.  The Badgers had three touchdowns called back by penalties and committed five turnovers, yet still only lost 7-13.

That sets the Wildcats up for a huge letdown spot here.  They are coming off that big win over the Badgers, but they still can't win the Big Ten West because Iowa already clinched it.  The Wildcats want to have a 10-win season, but they'll get their chance in the bowl game.  The fact of the matter is that Illinois simply wants this game more just to get bowl eligible.

Illinois has won three of its last five meetings with Northwestern with one of its losses coming by a field goal.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +14

The Iowa State Cyclones are probably the best 3-win team in the country.  They have a number of heartbreaking losses this season, not the least of which have come the last two weeks.  They blew a 24-7 lead to Oklahoma State and lost 31-35.  They also blew a 35-14 lead to Kansas State and lost 35-38.

Those two results led to the firing of head coach Paul Rhoads.  But the school was nice enough to let Rhoads coach out the season, and now this will be his final game with the Cyclones.  These players love Rhoads, and they have to be disappointed that they didn't get the job done for him in close games this year.  But they have one final chance to reward him with a win, and I look for them to be laying it all on the line for him against West Virginia this weekend.

The Mountaineers come in overvalued due to having covered the spread in their last two contests.  They won 38-20 over Texas, but they were outgained by 60 yards by the Longhorns.  This game was much closer than the final score showed, but the Longhorns gave it away by committing five turnovers.  Iowa State beat Texas 24-0 a few weeks back and outgained the Longhorns by 222 total yards.

Iowa State has played West Virginia extremely tough in their three meetings as Big 12 opponents.  All three were decided by 13 points or less, and the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Iowa State won 52-44 (OT) as 7.5-point road dogs in 2013.  Last year, it was a 27-24 game in the fourth quarter before the Mountaineers outscored the Cyclones 10-0 in the final period to win 37-24.  No question the Cyclones want revenge from that game as well.

West Virginia is 1-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +5.5

Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles have gone 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in their 11 games this year.  Their great play has put them in a position to where if they win their regular season finale against Louisiana Tech, they will be playing in the Conference USA Championship Game.

The Golden Eagles continue to be undervalued here as 5.5-point road underdogs to the Bulldogs.  Sure, the Bulldogs are also 8-3 and are playing for the same thing, but it's clear to me that when you look at the numbers against common opponents that the Bulldogs should not be favored.

Both teams have played the same five opponents this season.  Southern Miss is 4-1 against them outscoring them by 23.0 points per game and outgaining them by 240.4 yards per game.  Louisiana Tech is 4-1 against those same five teams, but only outscoring them by 9.6 points per game and outgaining them by 92.6 yards per game.  This really shows that the Golden Eagles are by far the superior team.

Southern Miss is 7-0 ATS off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on VA Tech/Virginia UNDER 51

The intensity level in this rivalry between Virginia and Virginia Tech is always high.  It usually leads to a defensive battle when they get together.  The intensity level will certainly be high for Virginia Tech, which hopes to send Frank Beamer out on a winning note and a bowl berth.  Virginia wants to beat the head coach that has tormented the Cavaliers through the years, though.

A quick look at the recent head-to-head results shows that there's value with the UNDER 51 here.  The Hokies and Cavaliers have combined for 44 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have average just 35.8 combined points in their last five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than today's posted total of 51.

Bud Foster's defense at Virginia Tech has simply shut down Virginia.  The Cavaliers have scored 21 or fewer points in each of the last 11 meetings.  They have been held to 14 or less in nine of those 11 meetings.  The Hokies have another elite defense this season and should do their part in helping aid the UNDER.

The downfall for Beamer and company in recent years has been on offense.  They are only averaging 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season as this is a below-average unit once again.  The Cavaliers are pretty much on par with the Hokies offensively at 378 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Against other good defensive teams, both squads have been prone to the UNDER.  The Hokies lost 13-17 to Pittsburgh for 30 combined points, beat Boston College 26-10 for 36 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 23-21 for 44 combined points.  The Cavaliers lost to Pitt 19-26 for 35 combines points, lost to UNC 13-26 for 39 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 27-21 for 48 combined points.

VA Tech is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. teams who give up 6.25 or more yards per play.  The Hokies are 12-3 to the UNDER against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Cavaliers last 16 conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +6.5

The Kentucky Wildcats find themselves in the exact same position as last year.  They were 5-6 going into the Governor's Cup battle with Louisville needing a win to become bowl eligible.  They lost a gut-wrencher 44-40 at Louisville as 13.5-point underdogs.  They even had the lead with less than three minutes to play before giving up a game-winning touchdown to the Cardinals with 2:47 left.

I have to think that the Wildcats aren't going to fall short again this season.  This is the best team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky, and I believe the Wildcats will get the job done at home this time around.  It also helps that Louisville is clearly not as good as it was last season at just 6-5 on the year.

Kentucky got some confidence with a 58-10 beat down of Charlotte last week, which pretty much serves as a bye week heading into this game.  Louisville, meanwhile, played a taxing 34-45 loss at Pittsburgh in which the Cardinals gave up 42 points in the first half.  They gave up 31 points to an awful Virginia offense the previous week as well.  This team has no business even being favored with how poorly the defense is playing.

Louisville is 2-3 on the road this season with a 7-point win at NC State and a 1-point win at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Those two wins are far from impressive.  Kentucky is 4-3 at home this season with a 3-point loss to Auburn and a 5-point loss to Florida for two of its losses.  It has only been beaten by this 6-point margin once at home in seven games this season.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 196.5

The books have been forced to set this total lower than it should be because the Spurs come in having gone under the total in four straight games.  That has provided us with some excellent line value to swoop in and back the over as the Spurs take on the Denver Nuggets tonight.

The Nuuggets are a high-scoring, fast-paced team that plays little defense.  They have scored 103 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall, and they have allowed at least 98 points in 10 straight games, including 109 or more in each of their last four.  What I love about this over is that the Nuggets will control the tempo because they're playing at home.

I also love the head-to-head stats between these teams that shows this total is too low.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the Nuggets and Spurs combining for 207, 216, 231 & 208 points.  That's an average of 215.5 combined points per game, which is 19 points more than this 196.5-point total.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers have been the best team in the NBA over the past couple weeks.  They are shooting a league-best 41.6 percent from 3-point range this season and have won nine of 11 games this month.

Paul George scored 40 points and hit seven 3-pointers in a 123-106 win Tuesday at Washington.  C.J. Miles hit eight and scored 32 points.  It's clear right now that this team is hitting on ally cylinders offensively, scoring 112, 123 and 123 points in its last three games overall.

Indiana wants revenge from a 95-96 loss at Chicago on November 16, which was only its 2nd loss in its last 11 games.  The other was a narrow 97-101 road loss at Cleveland.  The Pacers are 5-0 at home during this stretch and should improve to 6-0 in their last six home games with a win Friday.

The home team has won each of the last three meetings in this series, and 10 of the last 12 meetings overall.  The Pacers are 31-11 in their last 42 home meetings with the Bulls. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Chicago is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games following a road win.

Indiana is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Pacers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 78-95 road loss at Miami Monday night just four days ago.  That loss had followed up a 4-game winning streak that featured road wins over both the Thunder and Rockets.  The Knicks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS.

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 9-5 start to the season.  But they have played one of the softest schedules in the NBA, and a home-heavy schedule at that.  The Heat have played 10 home games compared to just four road games.  They are 1-3 on the road this season.

I used this theory that the Heat are overvalued when I faded them in an 81-104 road loss to Detroit on Wednesday.  I'll gladly fade them again as there's no way they should be a road favorite over the Knicks here, especially with the Knicks having revenge in mind, thus they'll be the more motivated team.

New York is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season.  Miami is 2-13 ATS after having won 3 of its last 4 games coming in over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 after coming off a 4-game road trip or longer.  Take the Knicks Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -7

You're going to see an amped up Washington Huskies team take the field this afternoon in the Apple Cup against Washington State.  The Huskies are fighting to become bowl eligible as they are just 5-6 on the season with one game to go.  I fully expect them to use this motivation to roll to victory at home Friday afternoon.

Washington is one of the best teams in the country to have a losing record right now.  I have been especially impressed with the way the Huskies have been playing of late as they just continue to get better with each passing week under Chris Petersen.

Washington is coming off a 52-7 road win at Oregon State last week.  It also beat Arizona 49-3 at home four weeks ago.  The Huskies lost the two games in between, but shouldn't have.  They committed a combined 8 turnovers in losses to Utah and Arizona State.  They actually outgained the Utes by 35 yards in a 23-34 home loss, and outgained Arizona State by 150 yards in a 17-27 road loss.

This Washington offense has really been lighting it up behind the steady play of freshman Jake Browning.  The Huskies had 468 yards against Arizona, 547 against Arizona State, and 482 against Oregon State in three of its last four contests.  They also had 381 yards against Utah during this stretch, which isn't a bad output against that defense.

Washington State is overvalued right now due to going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies' latest cover was a 27-3 home win over Colorado and its backup quarterback.  But now the Cougars will likely be playing with a backup quarterback of their own.

Starter Luke Falk was carried off the field on a backboard last Saturday in the third quarter against Colorado.  He has a concussion, and it's unlikely he's going to be able to play on a short week.  He's currently listed as doubtful, though head coach Mike Leach has stated he'll make the final decision right before the game.

The chances are that Falk won't be able to go, and now Peyton Bender will make his first collegiate start in a hostile atmosphere.  Bender went 13 of 22 for 133 yards, one touchdown, one interception and another throw that should have been picked off in relief duty against Colorado last week.

The difference in this game is going to be defense.  The Huskies give up 18.5 points, 352.7 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.5 points, 425 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  The Cougars give up 27.4 points, 421 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season.

Washington has won each of its last two meetings with Washington State and five of the last six overall with all five wins coming by a touchdown or more.  The only loss came in overtime at Washington State in 2012.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +23.5

I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year.  In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back.  Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (14.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.

Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg LY) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg LY) are also two studs who are back.  But two guys who have been really playing well that aren't returning starters are Devin Carter (14.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Donte Thomas (13.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.4 apg).

Arkansas State and Baylor have a couple common opponents that really make me think the Red Wolves can easily stay within 23.5 of the Bears today.  They are Jackson State and Oregon.  Arkansas State beat Jackson State by 9 at home and lost to Oregon by 23 on the road.  Baylor beat Jackson State by 17 at home and lost to Oregon by 7 on the road.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game, on Friday nights are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1997.  The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet Arkansas State Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Thanksgiving Night No-Brainer on UNDER 72.5

I don’t see a ton of value on the side in this game as both of these teams are very unpredictable. If I had to choose a side, I would take Texas because it is better than its record and has outgained four of its last five opponents. Plus the fact that the Longhorns are 6-0 in the last six meetings and just seem to have the Red Raiders figured out.

Instead, I see a ton of value with the UNDER in this game for many of the same reasons I like Texas. I look for the Longhorns to utilize their running game to move the chains and keep the Texas Tech offense off the field for the majority of this game. I also believe the Longhorns are good enough defensively to slow down this Red Raider attack.

Texas has been playing some great defense of late. It has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of its last five games. That includes 17 points against Oklahoma in a 24-17 upset win. The only exception was a 20-38 loss to West Virginia, but those 38 points for the Mountaineers were very fluky. The Longhorns set the Mountaineers up for several easy scores by committing five turnovers. They actually held WVU to just 379 total yards in the loss.

But this Texas offense isn’t very good, either. The Longhorns have been held to 24 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. The only exception came against Kansas when they scored 59 points. But almost everyone is lighting up that awful Kansas defense this year. The Longhorns hardly even look to throw the ball as they average 44 rushing attempts per game compared to just 21 passing. That’s going to keep the clock moving in this one.

Texas Tech is 3-1 to the UNDER in true road games this season. It combined for 59 points with Arkansas with a 68-point total. It combined for 50 points with Kansas with a 74-point total. It combined for 90 points against Oklahoma for the only over on the road. The Red Raiders also combined for 57 points with West Virginia with an 80.5-point total in that game.

Texas’ 10 totals this season have been 48, 49, 58, 62, 72, 60, 47.5, 50, 52 and 52 points. As you can see, this 72.5-point total is the largest total set in a Texas game this season. There was only one larger than 62, and that was a 72-point total against TCU. The Horned Frogs won that game 50-7 for 57 combined points as it went well UNDER the total. This just kind of shows you that there’s some serious value with the UNDER here.

The head-to-head history also shows value with the UNDER. Indeed, Texas Tech and Texas have combined for 72 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2008. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 47, 57, 53, 72, 38 and 58 points. That’s an average of 54.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than this posted total of 72.5.

The UNDER is 22-8 in Longhorns last 30 conference games. The UNDER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 home games. Texas is 14-2 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Longhorns are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  I also like the fact that both teams have had extra time to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is going to favor the defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +1

Carolina's 10-0 start will come to a screeching halt on Thursday.  The Dallas Cowboys are the real deal with Tony Romo at quarterback, going 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him.  But they were at least competitive during their 7-game losing streak as five of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less.  That's because their defense is one of the better stop units in the league, and all this team was missing was a quarterback.

The Cowboys racked up 386 total yards in their 24-14 win at Miami last week.  They even overcame a couple of questionable interceptions from Romo as he shook off the rust, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns.  Darren McFadden also chipped in 129 rushing yards behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  This is now as complete a team as there is in the NFL with Romo back under center.

But the credit in the Miami win has to go to the Cowboys' defense.  They limited the Dolphins to just 210 total yards as they simply could not get anything going.  The defense is only giving up 335.5 yards per game against opponents that average 376 yards per game, holding them to 40 yards below their season averages.  Expect the Cowboys to really control the time of possession now with Romo back, which is only going to make those defensive numbers even better going forward.

Admittedly, I've underestimated the Panthers this season.  I pictured this as about a .500 team coming into the year.  But now that the Panthers are 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread, there's no question they are overvalued as the betting public has taken notice.  This line indicates the Panthers would be favored on a neutral field, and that's not right in my eyes.  The Cowboys are by far the superior team now that Romo is back and should be favored on a neutral field, and thus at least a 4-point favorite at home.  I believe there's some serious line value here with the Cowboys as a result.

Despite being 3-7, the Cowboys still have a legitimate shot to win the NFC East.  They are only two games behind the New York Giants and one game back of the Philadelphia Eagles.  They cannot afford a loss here, while the Panthers can afford a loss now that they have a two-game lead over the Arizona Cardinals for home-field advantage in the NFC.  They also have a four-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South.

Cam Newton deserves a lot of credit for what he's been able to do with limited weapons on offense, but the fact of the matter is that this is still a below-average offensive team.  The Panthers only average 5.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.8 yards per play.  They rank a mediocre 15th in the NFL in total offense at 354.2 yards per game as well.  This offense will meet its match against Dallas' top-notch defense that has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its last four games.

The Panthers have also benefited from a home-heavy schedule this season.  They have only played four road games, and three of those came against Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Tennessee.  Their only impressive road win came at Seattle by a final of 27-23.  But the Seahawks let that game slip away by blowing a double-digit lead in the second half.  The Panthers won't be so fortunate this week against a hungry Cowboys team on the road.

Romo is the only quarterback all-time with multiple wins against teams that are 9-0 or better.  He beat the 9-0 Indianapolis Colts in the fourth start of his career in 2006.  He also beat the 13-0 Saints in Week 15 of the 2009 season.  The Cowboys are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games after having lost three of their last four games coming in.  Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last five meetings with Carolina dating back to 2005.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans are starting to get more healthy by the day.  It has really paid off as they've put together their two best games of the season in their last two contests.  I look for them to continue to play well tonight as they did themselves out of an early hole due to the injuries.

It started with a 104-90 home win over the Spurs on November 20 as 7.5-point underdogs.  The Pelicans also won 122-116 at home over these same Phoenix Suns on November 22.  Now they have had two days off in between games to get ready to face the Suns again.

Phoenix doesn't have the same luxury as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days.  After losing to the Pelicans, the Suns also went on the road and lost to the Spurs 84-98 the next night.  Leading scorer Eric Bledsoe (23.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.0 spg) missed that game against the Spurs with a knee injury.  Bledson is questionable to return tonight.  I like the Pelicans either way, but if Bledsoe sits it would be an added bonus.

Anthony Davis is averaging 31.2 points and 3.0 blocks over the last four games in which he's played at least 20 minutes.  Ryan Anderson has been a huge spark, too, averaging 28.3 points on 55.8 percent shooting over his last four contests while going 15 of 32 from 3-point range.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four meetings with the Suns with their only loss coming by a mere two points.  New Orleans is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -5.5

You'll be hard-pressed to get the Maryland Terrapins at a better value than we're getting them tonight.  They are only 5.5-point favorites over the Rhode Island Rams in this Championship Game of the Cancun Challenge.

The Terrapins are getting a lot of hype because they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  But they haven't lived up to that hype in terms of the spread.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, failing to cover as 9-point favorites against Georgetown, as 19.5-point favorites against Ride and as 13-point favorites against Illinois State.  I believe they are finally undervalued now as a result.

Still, they have managed to start 4-0, and now they are the smallest favorites (-5.5) they have been all season.  The scary part is they aren't shooting the ball well, yet they have a plethora of great shooters.  They are only making 30.1 percent of their 3-point shots, down from 37.6 a year ago.  It's only a matter of time before they start falling with the talent this team possesses.

Rhode Island was going to be an NCAA Tournament team in my opinion before losing E.C. Matthews to a torn ACL suffered in practice last week.  Matthews averaged 16.9 points per game last season, leaving a gaping hole in the Rams' offensive plans going forward.  They were able to get by TCU 66-60 yesterday, but they aren't going to be as fortunate against one of the best teams in the country a night later.

Rhode Island has lost 28 of its last 29 games against ranked opponents.  The Rams' last win over a top-5 team was an 80-75 victory over No. 2 Kansas in the second round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament.

The Terrapins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Rhode Island is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Take Maryland Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4

Sacramento's best player in DeMarcus Cousins is doubtful to play in this game tonight due to a back injury.  I like the Bucks enough at -4 even if he plays that I'd still recommend them, but it's just an added bonus if Cousins sits out like he's supposed to.

Milwaukee is a team to keep your eye on in the upcoming weeks.  The Bucks were banged up in the early going, but now they are finally healthy and playing to their potential.  That showed in a 109-88 home win over the Detroit Pistons last time out to put an end to a 3-game losing streak, which came in road losses to Washington, Cleveland and Indiana.  Seven different players scored in double-figures for the Bucks in that win over the Pistons.

Sacramento is just 5-10 this season and has been awful when Cousins hasn't played.  The Kings have been particularly poor on the road, going 1-5 while allowing opponents to score 111.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting. The Bucks are a respectable 4-3 at home this season and allowing just 42.4% shooting.

The Bucks are 9-1 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 non-conference road games.   The Kings are 9-20-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bucks are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +1.5

The Detroit Pistons have lost two straight and six of their last eight and really need a win here.  They are undervalued due to this recent stretch, but they've played a brutal schedule this season.  They have played eight of their last 10 games on the road and only five home games all season.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 9-4 start to the season.  They have taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule with 10 home games compared to just three road games.  They are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming at Minnesota.

The home team went 3-0 between these teams last year with Detroit winning both of its home meetings with Miami, including a 108-91 victory in its first meeting last year.

The Heat are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5

We're getting the Orlando Magic at a great price tonight as they basically just need to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread against the Knicks.  The value here comes from the recent success of the Knocks and the recent poor performance ATS for the Magic.

The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and they are overvalued as a result.  They did lose 78-95 at Miami last time out and that will be a sign of things to come.  The Magic are 1-6 ATS int heir last seven games overall, so they couldn't be more undervalued here.

The Magic have played their best basketball at home this season where they are 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS.  They are limiting opponents to just 41.3% shooting at home as their defense has been so much better this year under the guidance of Scott Skiles.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas State +21.5

The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued here due to their 4-0 start to the season.  They have survived a couple scares from Baylor (74-67) and Valparaiso (73-67) while also beating Jackson State (80-52) and Savannah State (77-59).

Arkansas State is 2-2 with home wins over Lyon (81-37) and Jackson State (78-69), as well as road losses to SIU-Edwardsville (70-79) and Savannah State (75-76).  That gives these teams two common opponents, and I believe the results in those two games suggest that the Red Wolves can stay within 21.5 points of the Ducks here.

I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year.  In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back.  Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (15.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.  Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg) are also two studs who are back.

The Red Wolves are averaging 76.0 points per game this season, which is great for a team not known for its offense.  The Red Wolves pride themselves on defense, and that has been the case this year as they are only allowing opponents to shoot 34.8% from the field.

Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (ARKANSAS ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Roll with Arkansas State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Chicago Bulls come in well-rested and ready to go.  They were last seen losing 94-106 at Golden State after blowing an 11-point lead on Friday.  They have since had three days off in between games and will be the fresher team in this showdown with Portland.

It also helps that Derrick Rose is expected to make his return from an ankle injury.  Rose missed the Bulls' last two games with a win at Phoenix and a loss at Golden State.  He was a full participant in practice on Sunday and this extra time off has helped him recover.

The Bulls are 8-4 this season.  The last three times they've lost, they've come back their next game and gotten a win, so they are 3-0 following a loss this season.  The Blazers come in overvalued due to two straight wins over the Clippers and Lakers.  They had lost seven straight games prior to winning their last two.  They also played on Sunday, only having one day off in between games.

Plays against home teams (PORTLAND) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in November games are 39-16 (70.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Portland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +23.5

I faded Bowling Green with success last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo as 7-point favorites.  I'll fade the Falcons again this week for many of the same reasons as they are way overvalued here as 23.5-point favorites over the Cardinals.

Bowling Green had nothing to play for with two games to go last year because it already clinched the MAC East at that point.  It not only lost its final two games, it was also blown out by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship.  The same thing is happening this season.

Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title two weeks ago with its 41-27 win at Western Michigan.  The Falcons failed to show up last week in their 28-44 loss to Toledo as a result, and they certainly won't bring the kind of focus it takes to beat Ball State by 24-plus points in this one.

Ball State is a better team than its 3-8 record would indicate.  This is its last chance to prove it, and I expect an inspired effort from the Cardinals in this one as a result.  Plus, it's Senior Night for 17 players, so there's no question this team is going to be laying it all on the line to try and get one last win for their senior class.

The Cardinals have been competitive at home this season.  They beat UMass 20-10, only lost to Central Michigan 21-23, and lost by 14 to Toledo.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this season.  They also only lost 19-24 at Northwestern as 17.5-point underdogs to prove what they are capable of.

Last year the Cardinals upset Bowling Green 41-24 as 10-point road underdogs.  That was the final game of the season when the Falcons had already clinched the MAC East and had nothing to play for.  I'm not calling for the upset here again, but it certainly would not surprise me one bit with the state of mind the Cardinals and Falcons are in.

The Cardinals have had some great quarterback play this season from freshman Riley Neal, who has thrown 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions.  Jordan Williams and KeVonn Mabon have combined for 128 receptions, 1,565 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.  Corey Lacanaria (42, 355, 2 TD) has missed the last two games due to suspension, but he's expected to return for this one, giving Neal another weapon.

Ball State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games.  Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BALL ST) - in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Ball State on Senior Night Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pepperdine -3.5

I believe Pepperdine to be one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They went 18-14 last year overall and 10-8 in WCC play.  They pulled off back-to-back upsets over Saint Mary's and BYU last February.  The good news this year? All five starters return.

Back are Jeremy Major (8.7 ppg, 3.6 apg LY), Stacy Davis (15.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg), Atif Russell (5.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg), SHawn Olden (9.2 ppg) and Jett Raines (10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg).  The Waves are just 2-2 to start this season, but the schedule has been tough so it's understandable.

Their only two losses came on the road as underdogs to Fresno State (66-69) and UCLA (67-81).  I was very impressed with what they did against a very solid Duquesne team yesterday in the opener of this Gulf Coast Showcase Tournament.  They won 84-70 as 3.5-point favorites behind another great defensive effort.  They have held three of their first four opponents to less than 40% shooting.

Murray State is in full-on rebuilding mode this season.  They lost head coach Steve Brohm to Iowa State in the offseason, and they lost Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) to the NBA.  But that wasn't all they lost.  They only returned one starter this year in Jeffery Moss, losing their other four starters.

That does make their 3-1 start kind of impressive, but it's not like they've beaten anybody relevant as their three wins have come against Harris Stowe, Middle Tennessee State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.  They lost to the best team they've played with a 52-63 setback at Georgia as 8.5-point dogs.

Plays on a favorite (PEPPERDINE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Murray State is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 vs. very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting to opponents.  Pepperdine is 14-3 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Waves are 14-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Roll with Pepperdine Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on East Carolina +14.5

The East Carolina Pirates are catching way too many points tonight against the San Diego State Aztecs.  We'll take advantage and back them as double-digit road underdogs here.

East Carolina is off to an impressive 2-1 start this season.  It beat Grambling 61-53 and Charlotte 88-74 at home to open the season.  But what really impressed me most is its 62-70 road loss as 20.5-point underdogs at nationally ranked California.  The Pirates only shot 32.7% in that game yet found a way to hang around with one of the best teams in the country.

San Diego State has no business laying 14.5 points to East Carolina with what I've seen from it so far.  The Aztecs are just 2-2 on the season with an 11-point home win over Illinois State, a 10-point home win over San Diego Christian, a 6-point home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock and a 5-point road loss to Utah.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (E CAROLINA) - slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 111-57 (66.1%) ATS since 1997.    The Aztecs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Pirates are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with East Carolina Monday.

20* Bills/Patriots ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Buffalo +7.5

The New England Patriots are clearly overvalued right now due to their 9-0 start as they remain one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL. That was evidenced last week as they were fortunate to escape with a 27-26 road win over the New York Giants as 7-point road favorites. The Giants really aren’t very good, and they should have won that game. They outgained the Patriots by 16 yards and racked up 422 yards of total offense in the loss.

One thing that’s getting overlooked here is that the Patriots aren’t going to be as explosive offensively going forward without two of their top three weapons. Dion Lewis is out for the season with a knee injury suffered a few weeks back, and Julian Edelman broke his foot against the Giants last week and now will be out indefinitely.

Lewis had accounted for 622 total yards and was averaging 10.8 yards per reception. Edelman’s 61 receptions leads the team to go along with 692 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Brady is left with a pedestrian group of weapons now on offense. He is great at doing more with less, but the fact of the matter is that Edelman and Lewis made this offense dynamic, but now this is just an above-average bunch.

Tyrod Taylor makes all the difference for the Bills. He returned two weeks ago and led the Bills to a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins. He also had a nice game in a 22-17 road win at the Jets last week. The Bills are 5-2 in games in which Taylor has started, and 0-2 in games he did not start in losses to the Jaguars and Bengals. Taylor is completing 70.5 percent of his passes with an 11-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 243 yards and two scores to give this offense an added dimension with his legs.

Buffalo is 3-0 in true road games this season as well.  It won 41-14 at Miami, 22-17 at New York and 14-13 at Tennessee.  It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.0 points per game on the road this year.  This team just has a knack for playing its best football away from home.  Keep in mind that Taylor started in all three of those road wins.

The Bills had one of their best performances of the season in a 33-17 home win over the Dolphins two weeks ago. They were coming off their bye week and really played a complete game. Now, they are essentially getting a mini-bye week here. They played last Thursday against the Jets, giving them three extra days of rest than the Patriots heading into this one. Rex Ryan getting extra time to prepare for the Patriots is a dangerous propositions. He played them tough almost every time when he was with the Jets, so he certainly knows how to game plan for Belichick and company.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East opponents. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four November games. The road team is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Bills Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +9

Off three straight non-covers, the Orlando Magic are showing great value today catching 9 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  This is one of the most improved teams in the league as they've actually won six of their last 10 games.

Conversely, the Cleveland Cavaliers are consistently overvalued.  That's especially the case now that they have covered two in a row with two straight double-digit wins over the Bucks and Hawks.  But they had failed to cover eight in a row prior to their back-to-back covers.

The Cavaliers were already short-handed without Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert.  But now they are also without two starters in Tomofey Mozgov and Mo Williams, so they cannot be expected to win by double-digits given their current state health-wise.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less over the last two seasons.  Orlando is 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* Packers/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +1

I know the Packers are reeling right now, but I simply trust them more in a big game like this. I also believe it’s impossible that Aaron Rodgers loses a fourth straight game as a starting quarterback. Heck, he hadn’t lost two in a row since his first year in the league in 2008, let alone three. He will rally the troops this week and get the Packers to finally put their best foot forward now that first place is on the line in the division.

Minnesota was one of the most underrated teams in the first half of the season, but after a 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS start, this team is now overrated in my opinion. The Vikings are extremely fortunate to be 7-2 right now because they have won so many close games, and when you look at the numbers, there’s no way this team should be five games over .500.

Would you believe that Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season? Well, that’s the simple truth. Its offense is only averaging 328.7 yards per game, while its defense is giving up 336.6 per contest, so the Vikings are getting outgained by 7.9 yards per game. Those are the types of numbers you would expect from a team that is 4-5 right now instead of 7-2.

There’s no question that the Vikings have a strong running game and defense, but there’s also no denying that the Packers have a massive edge at the quarterback position. Rodgers is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,270 yards with 21 touchdowns and only three interceptions, so he's not broken. The Vikings have been winning in spite of Teddy Bridgewater, who has thrown for 1,810 yards with only a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio. I’ll back Rodgers in this matchup all day every day.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. The Packers are 9-1-1 straight up in their last 11 meetings with the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers was hurt and didn’t play in the game that they tied, and the lone loss came back in 2012 in a 34-37 defeat at Minnesota in which Rodges threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns. The Vikings are improved this year, but I don’t believe they’re ready to win this division quite yet.

Rodgers has owned the Vikings, too.  In 14 career games against Minnesota, Rodgers is completing 71 percent of his passes with 31 touchdowns and four interceptions.  It's certainly one of his favorites teams in the league to face, and he pretty much just owns the entire NFC North.  Green Bay is 39-18 ATS in its last 57 games vs. NFC North opponents.   That's not going to change this week.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I believe Green Bay is finally undervalued here as an underdog after losing four straight games against the spread. This is the first time that the Packers have been underdogs all season, and we'll take advantage and grab the points.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Cowboys -1

Despite their seven straight losses for a 2-7 start, the Dallas Cowboys still have a realistic shot of winning the NFC East. That’s because the leader in the division is the New York Giants at 5-5, who 2.5 games ahead of the Cowboys. With seven games to go, you can bet the Cowboys are going to be in must-win mode from here on out to make a run in this weak division.

They certainly like their chances now that Tony Romo is back. They went 2-0 with him in their first two games, and 0-7 without him in their last seven. I’ve been saying it all along that Romo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league, and this start just proves it. All the Cowboys were missing was a quarterback. They’d probably be somewhere around 7-2 if he had played in all nine games, but instead they are 2-7.

The Cowboys have played tough even without Romo and it’s almost impossible that they are 0-7 with how well they’ve played. They have lost two overtime games to the Saints and Eagles, they lost by 4 to Tampa Bay, by 1 to Seattle and by 7 to New York. So, five of their losses have come by a TD or less. Their defense has played well enough to win most of these games, but they just haven’t gotten anything out of their offense. That’s going to change now that Romo is back.

The Miami Dolphins just aren’t very good this season. They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 40.0 yards per game. They have been thoroughly outplayed in their last three games and should have lost all three. They lost 7-36 at New England and 17-33 at Buffalo, and their 20-19 win over the Eagles last week was a fluke.

They were outgained 289-436 by the Eagles, or by 147 total yards. Sam Bradford got hurt late in that game and the Eagles couldn’t recover. The Dolphins got a blocked punt and a freak tipped pass for a TD that had them coming back from a 16-3 deficit to win.  So I’d have to say that the Dan Campbell factor has certainly worn off. Plus, they lost their top pass rusher in Cameron Wake to a season-ending injury against the Patriots, and their defense has not recovered. They are giving up 29.3 points and 431.0 yards per game in their last three contests.

Plays on road teams off seven or more consecutive losses in November games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss with a losing record on the season are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games off a win by 3 points or less. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Dolphins are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games overall.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -5

The Atlanta Falcons are extremely motivated for a victory right now.  They had their bye last week, and they've had a sour taste in their mouth for two weeks now do to the stench of this 3-game losing streak.  Make no mistake about it, the Falcons will be laying it all on the line to get a victory Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.

Despite the three consecutive losses, the numbers show that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL.  They actually rank 3rd in yardage differential behind only the Cardinals and Patriots, outgaining teams by an average of 59.9 yards per game.  They rank 5th in total offense at 402.2 yards per game, and their defense is improved this season, ranking 14th at 342.3 yards per game.

The Colts are fortunate to be 4-5 this season because when you look at the numbers, they have been pretty awful.  They rank 28th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 40.5 yards per game.  They average a pedestrian 353.7 yards per game on offense, and they are terrible on defense, ranking 28th in allowing 394.2 yards per game.

Matt Hasselbeck will be starting in place of the injured Andrew Luck.  Yes, Hasselbeck is 2-0 as a starter this season, but a closer look shows that the Colts were playing two terrible opponents and were fortunate to win.  They needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 16-13 at home and were outgained by 105 yards in that game, 326-431.  They also squeaked out a 27-20 road win over the Texans, and were again outgained by 121 yards, 323-444.

They shouldn't have won either of those games when you look at the yardage totals.  Now, against one of the best teams they've played this season in the Falcons, Hasselbeck is going to be exposed.  This is where you are going to see how much the Colts miss Luck, because Hasselbeck can't keep up with this high-powered Falcons offense.  He could keep up with the Jaguars and Texans, but not the Falcons.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a road loss are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* Tennessee/Missouri SEC East No-Brainer on Missouri +7

I really like the state of mind of the Missouri Tigers right now.  Once Gary Pinkel announced last week that this would be his last season, these players really rallied around one another.  They pulled off the 20-16 upset as 4.5-point underdogs last week against a good BYU team.  Now, this will be Pinkel's final home game as the head coach of the Tigers.  There's just going to be a little extra juice with this team given the situation.

This is going to be a night game in the Zoo to boot, and Columbia has been one of the toughest places to play at night over the years.  The Tigers (5-5) also still need another win to get bowl eligible, and since their next game is at Arkansas, this is their best chance to get one.  I just believe they are going to be putting all their eggs in one basket to get a win for Pinkel and to get bowl eligible.

The Tigers offense has been their reason for their poor record, because their defense is elite, limiting opponents to 14.7 points and 297.7 yards per game.  But the offense broke out against BYU for 434 total yards, limiting the Cougars to just 290 in the process.  Running back Russell Hansbrough recently returned from injury and had his first 100-yard effort of the season against the Cougars, which is a good sign going forward.  Freshman Drew Lock continues to improve, throwing for 244 yards and completing 68 percent of his passes last week.

Tennessee is just kind of going through the motions right now, picking up its sixth win to get bowl eligible last week in a lackluster 24-0 home win over North Texas as 40.5-point favorites.  That followed up another sub-par effort in a 27-24 home win over South Carolina as 17-point favorites.  I really don't think you can trust this team laying 7 points on the road this week, especially with all that Missouri has to play for here.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Tigers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Tennessee as SEC opponents over the last three years.  Missouri has actually been an underdog in two of those three games as well.  It also won 31-3 in its lone home meeting with Tennessee in 2012.

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  The Volunteers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  After a slow start, they have gone on to go 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road to arguably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference in Cleveland (97-101) and Chicago (95-96) by a combined five points.

The Milwaukee Bucks come in struggling.  They have gone 1-4 straight up in their last five games overall, which includes a blowout home loss to Boston (83-99), as well as two blowout road losses to Washington (86-115) and Cleveland (100-115).  I don't like their chances of keeping this one close against the Pacers, who come in on two days' rest.

Indiana is 32-10 straight up in its last 42 home meetings with Milwaukee.  It has won six of its last seven home meetings with the Bucks with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.

The Pacers are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -4

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming on strong in the second half this year just as they did last season. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Alabama by a final of 14-27 as 15.5-point underdogs. That’s the same Alabama team that torched Mississippi State 31-6 last weekend.

Coming off that crushing loss to Alabama that ended any hopes of the Bulldogs winning the SEC, I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the Razorbacks. They won’t be nearly as jacked up for this game against Arkansas as they were last week against Alabama. I’ll gladly side with the team playing the better football right now as short home favorites.

Arkansas has played a gauntlet of a schedule this year. It had to face Texas Tech and Toledo out of conference, but looking back, that may have been a blessing in disguise as the Razorbacks have been great in SEC play. Believe it or not, they still have a shot to earn at least a share of the SEC West title because they are 4-2 right now within the conference. They have two home games remaining against Mississippi State and Missouri, so 6-2 is very likely. They would need Alabama to lose at Auburn, but in that rivalry game, anything is possible.

Mississippi State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has taken advantage of a very soft schedule this season, playing Southern Miss, Northwestern State, Troy and LA Tech out of conference. It also drew two of the worst teams from the SEC East in Kentucky and Missouri and beat them both, while Arkansas had to play what I believe is the best team from the East in Tennessee. The Razorbacks beat the Vols 24-20 on the road.

Mississippi State has not fared well against the best three teams that it has played. It lost 19-21 at home to LSU in what was a 21-6 game in the fourth quarter. That’s the same LSU team that Arkansas beat 31-14 on the road last week. Mississippi State also lost 17-30 at Texas A&M, while Arkansas took Texas A&M to overtime on a neutral field. And finally, the Bulldogs lost 6-31 at home to Alabama, while Arkansas only lost 14-27 on the road to the Crimson Tide.

As you can see from that previous paragraph, when you compare common opponents, it’s clear that Arkansas is by far the superior team. These teams have played the same four teams this season in Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Mississippi State is 1-3 against them scoring just 14.8 points per game and getting outscored by 8.0 points per game, while Arkansas is 2-2 against them scoring 30.0 points per game and outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.

This Arkansas offense is unstoppable right now and may be the best unit in the entire SEC. It is putting up 50.3 points per game during its current four-game winning streak. It scored 54 against Auburn, 63 against Tennessee Martin, 53 against Ole Miss and 31 against LSU. The Razorbacks racked up 605 total yards on Ole Miss and 440 total yards on LSU, which is no small feat and just shows how well they are playing on that side of the ball right now. Mississippi State does not have the firepower to keep up, and its defense has taken a big step back this year.

Arkansas is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 or more yards per attempt over the past two seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  This is a huge hangover spot for the Bulldogs off that Alabama loss, so expect the Razorbacks to roll again.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -1.5

New Mexico is in the ultimate letdown spot here.  It just clinched a bowl win with a shocking upset of Boise State last week as whopping 31-point underdogs, winning 31-24 on the road.  The Lobos have now accomplished their goal of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007.  That's a huge accomplishment, but now this team is not going to show up at all this week.

Besides, the win over Boise State was extremely fluky.  The Lobos were outgained by 225 yards in that game as Boise   racked up 638 total yards, but found a way to lose by committing four turnovers.  The Lobos are extremely fortunate to be 6-4 because they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season, and they only outgained New Mexico State by 30 yards and Wyoming by 1 yards in two of the games they weren't outgained.  The other was the opener against Mississippi Valley State.

New Mexico is getting outgained by an average of 60.9 yards per game on the season.  While New Mexico is content with being bowl eligible, Colorado State (5-5) still needs another win to clinch a bowl berth.  It will be the more motivated team here as a result.  The Rams are clearly the better team as they are outgaining teams by 16.5 yards per game this season, and they've played a tougher schedule than New Mexico to boot.

I really like the way the Rams are playing coming into this game.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat a good Air Force team 38-23 at home, topped Wyoming 26-7 on the road, and beat UNLV 49-35 at home.  Yes, they lost 17-41 at home to San Diego State, but the Aztecs are crushing everyone right now.  Plus, the Rams gave that game away by committing four turnovers because they were only outgained by 88 yards.  It was closer than that final score suggests.

Colorado State owns New Mexico, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The last two haven't even been close.  Colorado State won 66-42 as 7-point road favorites in 2013 while racking up 649 yards of offense.  The Rams also won 58-20 as 20.5-point home favorites last year, racking up 698 yards and outgaining New Mexico by 342 yards.

Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a home games.  New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less.  The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Don't expect New Mexico to even show up for this one off that win over Boise State.  Roll with Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +29

The Clemson Tigers just cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves with their No. 1 ranking in the playoffs.  Oddsmakers have been forced to set the spreads in their games too high the last two weeks because of their ranking and the betting public's tendency to back these teams blindly.  They haven't lived up to those expectations.  After all, all undefeated teams went 1-5 ATS last week, and I expect that trend to continue this week.

Clemson failed to cover as a 12.5-point home favorite two weeks ago against Florida State, winning that game by 10 in what was a tie game entering the 4th quarter.  I successfully faded the Tigers in that game, and then again last week when they were massive 30-point favorites over Syracuse on the road.  They only beat the Orange 37-27.  I'm fading them for a 3rd straight week now that they are overvalued again as 29-point favorites over Wake Forest.

This is a Wake Forest team that is better than its 3-7 record would suggest.  It has been competitive in every single game this season outside of a 14-50 loss at North Carolina.  All six of its other losses came by 17 points or less.  That includes a 16-24 loss to Florida State as 19-point dogs, a 19-20 loss to Louisville as 12-point dogs, and a 7-28 loss at Notre Dame last week as 25.5-point dogs.

That game at Notre Dame really stands out to me.  Wake Forest actually outplayed the Fighting Irish in that game.  The Demon Deacons had a 340-282 yard edge.  That's right, they limited the high-powered Fighting Irish offense to just 282 total yards, 98 of which came on a TD run.  They had a 23-15 edge in first downs, but converted just 1 of 4 of their red zone trips and were stopped on the 1-yard line in the 2nd quarter.  If they can hang with Notre Dame, they can certainly hang with Clemson.

"I think we realized that we're a more talented team and that we can play with anyone in the country," sophomore quarterback John Wolford said. "It's just a matter of execution, knowing your assignment, just not making stupid plays. Right now we're still young, so for us to be in these games we have to be smart, we have to execute, and coming down to the end of games we have to try and find a way to win."

Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following five or more consecutive straight up wins, only winning by 5.6 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 1-8 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five  games following a S.U. loss.  Clemson doesn't need style points, it just needs a win, which is all it cares about right now.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -6.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the No. 1 ranked team in the country for good reason.  They returned four starters and five key reserves from last year's team that made it to the Sweet 16.  Even though Marcus Paige is hurt right now, this team can rely on their big men in Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks to lead the way.

The Tar Heels have opened 3-0 with three blowout home wins over Temple (91-67), Fairfield (92-65) and Wofford (78-58).  The balance on this team has been remarkable, but Meeks (16.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Johnson (16.0 ppg, 11.7 rpg) have stood out the most.  Joel Berry II (15.0 ppg, 4.0 apg) has filled in nicely for Paige, and Nate Britt (13.0 ppg) is shooting 66.7% from 3-point range in the early going.

Northern Iowa is overvalued to start the season after a 31-4 campaign last year and a Missouri Valley Tournament Championship.  But the Panthers had all 5 starters back last year, and now they just have 2 returning.  They lose MVC Player of the Year Seth Tuttle (15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and two other starters in Melvin Singleton and Deon Mitchell.  The Panthers lost to Colorado State 78-84 at home before beating Stephen F. Austin 70-60 at home.  Now they face the toughest opponent they will all season, and I see no way they are able to stay within 6.5 points of the Tar Heels.

Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  UNC is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +4

There's a lot to love about Penn State in this game.  The Nittany Lions are coming off their bye week following a last-second 21-23 loss at Northwestern.  They have had two weeks to stew over that defeat, and there's no question that they're be chomping at the bit to hit the field in Happy Valley Saturday.  The bye has also given players like stud RB Saquon Barkley a chance to heal his injured ankle.

Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off a double-overtime win at Indiana last week and will be fatigued.  In fact, the Wolverines' last two road games against unranked opponents have gone down to the wire, and they were outplayed in both but found a way to win.  They won at Minnesota thanks to a goal-line stand despite getting outgained 461-296 by the Golden Gophers.  They also needed a fourth-and-goal TD pass on the last play of regulation to force OT against Indiana last week.  They won't be so fortunate in Happy Valley this weekend.

This is also a lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have "The Game" on deck next week against Ohio State.  They won't be able to help but look ahead to that contest.  I think the Nittany Lions are catching them at the perfect time all things considered, and I'm not so sure that Penn State isn't the better team.

After all, Happy Valley is a place where opposing teams have gone to die this season.  Indeed, Penn State is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 20.2 points per game.  Their defense has been suffocating at home, allowing just 9.8 points and 252.5 yards per game.  Their offense has gotten it going at home, averaging 30.0 points per game.  The Nittany Lions are also 3-0 straight up in their last three home meetings with Michigan.

Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The Nittany Lions are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.  The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +23

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most overrated teams in the country right now.  They are currently No. 5 in the playoff rankings due to their 10-0 record, and while they've earned that record, the fact of the matter is that it's come against a soft schedule.

It's telling that oddsmakers in Las Vegas would have Iowa as a 10-plus point underdog to each of the top three playoff contenders in Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State on a neutral field, as well as an 8-point underdog to Notre Dame.  I don't have much of a problem with their No. 5 ranking, but the fact of the matter is that they're way overvalued right now.

That certainly showed last week as they opened as 12-point favorites against Minnesota and the money moved the line down to -9.  Iowa barely won that game 40-35 a week after escaping with a 35-27 win at Indiana.  Those are two bad teams, and Iowa couldn't put them away.  It's just not their style to win in blowout fashion, which is why Purdue is showing so much value here as a 23-point dog.

Purdue continues to fight here down the stretch, beating Nebraska 55-45 three weeks ago and nearly upsetting Northwestern in a 14-21 road loss last week.  I really like what I've seen from redshirt freshman QB David Blough, who has averaged 245 passing yards on 62 percent completions with six touchdowns and three interceptions over his past three games.  He's getting more and more comfortable as the season goes on.

Blough should have some success against this Iowa defense, which has given up a combined 62 points and 841 yards to Indiana and Minnesota the past two weeks.  It also help that leading rusher Markell Jones is probable to play after dealing with a knee injury.  He has been a huge bright spot on this team, rushing for 692 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per carry.

Iowa QB C.J. Beathard is having a fine season, but he's been banged up all year, and next week's game against Nebraska is more important, so don't expect the coaching staff to allow him to run as much as he normally does.  Beathard's latest ailment is a hip injury suffered in the win over Minnesota last week.  But he's also dealing with a groin injury, so he's just nowhere near 100 percent.

Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure right now too, which could help explain its close calls against Indiana and Minnesota.  It doesn't need style points either, just a win will do, and that's all that head coach Kirk Ferentz cares about.  He's not one to run up scoreboards, that's for sure, and the Hawkeyes aren't capable anyways.  They are a run-first, stop the run type of team that's not flashy at all.  That's why it's so difficult for them to cover these monstrous spreads.

Unbeaten teams went 1-5 against the spread last week, so with each win from these teams comes bigger expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  Oddsmakers are forced to shade their lines because they know the public is going to be on them.

Iowa has eight wins over Power 5 teams, but those have come by just an average of 11.0 points per game.  Purdue has faced three teams who are currently ranked by the playoff committee, and it has only lost those games by an average of 9.0 points per game.  That alone shows you there's some value with the Boilermakers here.

Plus, Purdue has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It suffered a fluke 31-41 loss at Marshall in the opener where it gave up a pick-6 in the closing seconds when it was driving for the win after leading the entire way.  The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing at Michigan State 21-24 as 23-point dogs, at Wisconsin 7-24 as 23-point dogs, and at Northwestern 14-21 as 14-point dogs.

I would argue that Michigan State and Wisconsin are both better than Iowa, and Purdue played both tough on the road as identical 23-point dogs, losing by an average of 10.0 points to them.  Yes, Wisconsin did lose to Iowa 10-6, but that was a fluky loss too because the Badgers outgained the Hawks by 99 yards and fumbled on the 1-yard line on what would have been the winning TD.

This is Purdue's Super Bowl.  An upset win here would make their season.  I'm not calling for that, but that's just their mentality coming in.  They have nothing to lose while Iowa has everything to lose, so there's no pressure on the Boilermakers.  It also helps that home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall.  Purdue won 27-24 as a 5-point dog in its last trip to Iowa City, and lost 17-22 as a 17-point dog the time before.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  It is only losing to these teams by an average of 6.3 points per game.  The Boilermakers are consistently undervalued on the road, especially against good teams.  That's the case again here.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Purdue as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR Saturday!

15* UNC/VA Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +6

The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be laying it all on the line this week for a couple of different reasons.  The biggest is that it's the final home game of Frank Beamer's illustrious career, but it's also a chance to become bowl eligible and extend their nation's longest bowl streak to 23 seasons.  Oh yea, it's also Senior Day for 26 Hokies on the roster.  It's safe to say that these players will be leaving it all on the field Saturday.

''We all know it's a huge game, not only for Frank but for us,'' senior defensive tackle Luther Maddy said this week. ''It's my last time walking through the tunnel at Lane Stadium, so I know I'm going to have some emotions running through my body. I'm sure all the other seniors will also. I think we're going to play our butts off this game, not only for us but for Coach Beamer and for this team to keep this bowl streak going. It'll be a huge game.''

The Hokies can also secure bowl eligibility next week by winning their regular-season finale against Virginia. Beamer's son Shane, the Hokies' associate head coach and running backs coach, would obviously prefer it happens against North Carolina.  ''I can't wait for Saturday,'' he said. ''We need Lane Stadium to be the loudest it's ever been on Saturday. Ever.''

North Carolina is only ranked 17th in the playoff poll with a 9-1 record because it has played such a soft schedule this year.  It has played seven home games, one neutral site game (a loss to South Carolina), and two true road games.  It only beat both Georgia Tech and Pitt by 7 points apiece in its two true road games, and Virginia Tech is better than both of those squads in my opinion, especially now that QB Michael Brewer is back.

Brewer led the Hokies to a 23-21 win at Georgia Tech last week, which followed up a 26-10 win at Boston College the previous week.  But defense has been the main reason for the late-season resurgence.  The Hokies held Boston College to just 218 yards and forced four turnovers.  They also limited a very good Georgia Tech offense to 258 yards and forced three turnovers.  This is a senior-laden defense that will be playing with a chip on its shoulder in trying to tame this UNC offense.

UNC has had a very good offense the last two seasons, but Beamer and defensive coordinator Bud Foster have shut the Tar Heels down.  The Hokies won 27-17 at home in 2013 over the Tar Heels and held them to 376 yards.  They also won 34-17 on the road last year while limiting Marquise Williams and company to 323 yards.  Foster clearly has this UNC offense figured out.

UNC is 9-27 ATS in its last 36 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games.  Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last games as the coach of UNC.  Beamer is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Virginia Tech.  These are two 100% never lost systems folks.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Cincinnati/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +2

When I first looked into this game, I didn’t love the spot for South Florida. They just won their 6th game last week in an upset victory over Temple to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. I initially thought this would be a letdown spot for them after that accomplishment, but a closer inspection shows that they still have plenty to play for and will have no problem getting focused for Cincinnati this week.

Indeed, the Bulls are actually in second place in the AAC East standings at 4-2. The team ahead of them? Temple at 5-1. But the Bulls obviously have the tiebreaker over the Owls now, so if they can win out they will have a good chance to play in the AAC Championship Game. Temple still has to play Memphis and UConn, and there’s a good chance it loses one of those two games. Cincinnati (3-3) is two games back in the AAC East with little to play for right now, so if anything I have to question the Bearcats’ motivation.

With how well the Bulls are playing right now, it would be foolish to bet against them. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games with blowout wins over Syracuse (45-24), SMU (38-14) and Temple (44-23). They also went on the road and beat East Carolina (22-17) and Connecticut (28-20) as underdogs. They have actually been an underdog in five of their last six games. They outgained ECU by 222 yards and Temple by 176 yards in their last two games.

Raymond James Stadium has offered South Florida a tremendous home-field advantage this year. It is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 21.4 points per game in the process. Its only loss came to Memphis by a final of 17-24. The Bulls are also outgaining teams by an average of 155.0 yards per game at home this year.

Cincinnati has a very good offense but an awful defense. It is giving up 28.2 points and 403 yards per game. Its biggest problem has been stopping the run. The Bearcats are giving up 186 yards rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 150 per game and 3.9 per carry.

That’s bad news for them because now they’re up against a South Florida offense that is averaging 228 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Marlon Mack, one of the most underrated backs in the country, rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Temple defense last week. He now has 1,065 yards while averaging 6.5 per carry on the season. He should have another career game against this weak Cincinnati stop unit.

Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Miami Ohio by a final of 37-33 as 21-point favorites. Miami Ohio is 2-9 on the season and has been outscored by 176 points this year. USF is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that complete 58% or more of their passes over the last two years. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +6.5

The New York Knicks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are much-improved with all the additions they made this offseason, which has led to a 6-6 start.  Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or less, and they have been competitive in every game they've played in.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Knicks are well-rested coming into this one as they've had two days off in between games.  They will be up against an Oklahoma City team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days, and one that remains without its best player in Kevin Durtant.

The Thunder have not played well without Durant here recently.  They lost 85-100 at home to Boston and 114-122 on the road to Memphis before beating Oklahoma City 110-103 as 12.5-point home favorites.  But the Pelicans have only won one game all season, and they were playing without Anthony Davis in that game.

The Knicks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Knicks didn't win their 6th game of the season until Game 42 last year on January 19th, which just shows how much improvement they've made with the addition of Porzingis, Lopez and company.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wright State +25

This is simply a situational play against Kentucky.  The Wildcats are coming off a huge 74-63 over Duke on Tuesday, and I expect them to be still feeling a little too good about themselves.  They won't come back with the kind of focus it takes to put away Wright State by more than 25 points.

Kentucky returned zero starters this season and is starting over.  It only beat Albany by 13 points in its opener and New Jersey Tech by 30 in its second game.  Now it is overvalued off that win over Duke.

Wright State is just 1-2 this season, but its two losses have come by 5 and 6 points to CS-Northridge and Northern Illinois, both on the road.  Wright State has had four days off in between games, while Kentucky has had just two.

Wright State returned three key starters this season in JT Yoho (15.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Joe Thomasson (10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Michael Karena (9.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Grant Benzinger (9.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) and Steven Davis (7.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  So, they returned each of their top four scorers from last year, which was an injury-riddled campaign as three of their best players missed significant playing time.

Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points, a good free throw shooting team making 72% of their free throws, who have a 45% field goal percentage defense or worse are 74-35 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Wright State Friday.

15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213

No Chris Paul and no J.J. Redick is going to spell trouble for the Clippers' offense tonight.  Both Paul and Redick are listed as doubtful, leaving the Clippers without their two starting guards.  In their places will be Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford, which is a huge downgrade on the offensive end.

The Clippers are going to have to rely on defense until those two return, which is what they did in a 101-96 win over Detroit on November 14.  They have had four days off in between games to prepare for the Warriors, so look for them to be sharp on the defensive end behind DeAndre Jordan and company.

This has become a fierce rivalry now that these teams both exchanged words in the offseason.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings, but all four of those were with Chris Paul in the lineup.  The Warriors are very good on offense, but what gets overlooked is that they are 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, too.

They are only allowing opponents to make 42.3% of their shots this season and life is going to be difficult for the Clippers without Paul and Redick in this one.  It's also worth mentioning that Steph Curry's running mate, Klay Thompson, is questionable to play in this game due to a back injury that has limited him all season.

Golden State is 29-13 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Warriors last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Clippers last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Clippers last 53 Thursday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville -3

The Jaguars are really improving as the season goes on under head coach Gus Bradley. They have gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in their last three games overall. They beat a good Bills team 34-31 over in London and also upset the Ravens 22-20 on the road as 5-point underdogs.

Even the game they lost they should have won as they fell 23-28 as 7.5-point road dogs to the Jets. They actually outgained the Jets by 146 total yards in the game, racking up 436 total yards against a good New York defense, while also only allowing 290 total yards. But they finished that game -4 in turnover differential, which proved to be the difference.

I really like the state of mind of the Jaguars right now. They are only one game back of both Indianapolis and Houston for first place in the AFC South, so they have a lot to play for. I don’t really like the mindset of the 2-7 Titans, who had their head coach fired midseason. They responded with a road win at New Orleans in Mike Mularkey’s first game as interim head coach, but then proceeded to go back to their usual bad ways in a 10-27 home loss to the Panthers last week.

That win over the Saints was really an aberration, but the Saints also lost badly to the Redskins last week, so that team isn’t playing well right now. The Titans are still 1-5 in their last six games overall. They have been outgained by at least 59 yards in four of their last five games, including 122 yards by the Falcons and 135 yards by the Dolphins in a 10-38 loss.

Marcus Mariota is being asked to do too much because the Titans just do not have a running game. They have been held to 97 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last eight games, so this is really a one-dimensional offense.  Now, another starting WR in Justin Hunter went down with a broken foot last week.  Kendall Wright is also out after missing the last three games with an MCL injury.  Wright and Hunter are the team's #2 and #3 leading receivers this season behind tight end Delanie Walker, so Mariota's options are clearly limited right now.

Blake Bortles has a lot more help around him than Mariota does. Bortles has a nice stable of young receivers, plus T.J. Yeldon is having a fine rookie season running the football. He has rushed for 532 yards this year while averaging 4.0 per carry.  Allen Hurns has caught a touchdown in seven consecutive games, which is a franchise record.  Allen Robinson is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL as well.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent years. The home team is 6-2 straight up in the last eight meetings, and the home team won both meetings last season. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three years. The Titans are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Tennessee is 4-20-2 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC South opponents. The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC foes.  Bet the Jaguars Thursday.

15* ECU/UCF ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Central Florida +14.5

The Central Florida Knights haven’t had a lot to be excited about this season. They are 0-10 and their head coach, George O’Leary, stepped down midseason. But they certainly do not want to go 0-12 this season and have that hanging over their heads all offseason. They have two more chances to get a win, both at home as they host East Carolina and then South Florida. Look for them to lay it all on the line in this game to get a win, especially since they are playing in a nationally televised home game on ESPN Thursday night. That’s more than enough motivation to bring out their best effort.

East Carolina has really fizzled out here down the stretch. It has gone 0-3 in its last three games overall and has been thoroughly outplayed in the process. Even though the Pirates beat Tulsa three weeks back 30-17, they were outgained in that contest by 81 yards. They blew a late lead and lost 14-24 at home to Temple three weeks ago, and they went on to get blown out 13-31 at Connecticut two games ago.  They have been held to just 14.7 points per game in their last three.

Last week, ECU lost 17-22 at home to South Florida as 5.5-point favorites. While that final score looks close, this was actually a huge blowout in the Bulls’ favor. They outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in the game and should have won by a lot more. They racked up 442 yards while limiting the Pirates to just 220 yards. I just don’t like the way the Pirates are playing right now, and you cannot trust them to win by more than a two touchdowns on the road, which is what it would take to cover this 14.5-point spread.

UCF has put together a couple of promising efforts here of late that make me think it can hang with East Carolina. It only lost 16-30 on the road at Temple as 19.5-point dogs on October 17 to cover that spread. The Knights also covered as 17-point road dogs to Tulsa in their last game in a 30-45 loss. But that game was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 13 yards, but they committed four turnovers to help Tulsa pull away.

ECU has not beaten UCF by more than 14 points in any of their nine meetings dating back to 2005. The Pirates have won five of those nine meetings, but their victories have come by 7, 5, 3, 14 and 13 points. The Knights have won the last two with a 40-20 home win in 2012 and a 32-30 road win in 2014.

The Pirates are 0-9 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. ECU is 4-12 ATS as a favorite over the last two years. The Pirates are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 conference games. ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games. UCF is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games.  Take UCF Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +14

Tennessee is in a transition year under first-year head coach Rick Barnes.  The results haven't been promising in the early going with a narrow 82-78 home win over UNC-Asheville and a 67-69 road loss to Georgia Tech.  The Volunteers have no business laying 14 points to this improved Marshall team.

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd return four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

Tennessee is a woeful 0-13 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons, averaging 61.8 points and giving up 61.8 points in these spots.  That's a trend we'll gladly ride tonight.  Take Marshall Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +10

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country.  This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.

Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games.  Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville.  He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's.  His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.

Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Travis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).

So, nearly the entire team returns from last year.  Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era.  Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit.  He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.

After beating Eastern Washington 106-88 in their opener, the Bulldogs fell 72-76 at home to Southern.  That loss obviously has the betting public not wanting anything to do with this team as they are now 10-point underdogs in this Puerto Rico Tip Off against Miami.  Newmand didn't play against Eastern Washington, and he was on a minutes restriction against Southern.  But now he's a full go and should make a huge difference for this team.

Miami has four starters back as well this season and is a good team, but should not be favored by double-digits here. It opened with an 86-59 win over UTRGV and a 93-77 win over LA-Lafayette and hasn't done anything to impress me with those two results.  This is a team that shot just 42.8% last year, ranking 12th in the ACC.

Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS after a game where it forced 8 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Mississippi State Thursday.

15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  With the way the Suns are playing, we are getting them at a tremendous discount.  They are 5-2 at home this season, including three straight home wins over the Clippers (by 14), Nuggets (by 24) and Lakers (by 19).  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

"The chemistry for this team is pretty good right now," coach Jeff Hornacek said. "They're all cheering each other on. A good sign for a coach to see is them all supporting each other. When you see that, good things happen."

Now they'll be playing against a Chicago Bulls team that will be without its best player in Derrick Rose, who is expected to sit out this game with an ankle injury.  The Bulls come in overvalued due to also going 3-0 in their last three games, but their three wins came against the 76ers, Hornets (by 5) and Pacers (by 1).

Chicago is 0-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing in this spot by 11.9 points per game.  Phoenix is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Suns are 48-24 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* Western Michigan/Northern Illinois MAC No-Brainer on UNDER 61

First place in the MAC West division is on the line when the Western Michigan Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies get together tonight at Huskie Stadium.  The intensity will be turned up a notch in this one, and I believe that favors both defenses tremendously in what will be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Both of these teams have been pretty solid defensively this season.  The Huskies only give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  The Broncos have been much better within the conference, giving up 23.7 points and 376.3 yards per game.  They only allowed 14 points to Ohio, 13 to Miami Ohio and 7 to Ball State in three of their last five contests.

Northern Illinois is without starting QB Drew Hare, and the offense isn't as explosive with backup Ryan Graham in there.  Graham has only played the last 1.5 games due to the Hare injury.  He played well to close against Toledo, but the Huskies relied mostly on their rushing attack to beat Buffalo last week.

What really stands out to me is the low-scoring nature of this series.  These teams combined for 52 points and 351.0 yards apiece last year in a 31-21 NIU victory.  They combined for 47 points and 360.0 yards apiece in a 33-14 NIU home win in 2013 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 10 meetings have seen 55 or fewer combined points.  Also, 15 of the last 19 meetings have seen 60 or less.

Western Michigan is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 UNDER in its last 43 home games vs. conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight November games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Northern Illinois.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Minnesota Timberwolves are way overvalued right now due to incredibly going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in all road games this season.  But most of those games came in the role of a big underdog, and now they are only 3-point road dogs against the Orlando Magic tonight.

Minnesota is in an awful spot here.  It is coming off an upset win at Miami last night, so it will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  Not only that, it will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Timberwolves, which is one of the toughest spots in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the Magic have had three days off in between games after last playing at Washington on Saturday.

The Magic are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and have consistently been undervalued.  They are 5-6 SU & 8-3 ATS through 11 games.  Four of their six losses have come by 5 points or less to Washington (by 1), OKC (by 3), Chicago (by 5) and Houston (by 5).  You're not going to get this team at a discount like this for too much longer, so it's time to take advantage.

The Magic are 3-0 in their last three home games with impressive wins over the Raptors, Lakers and Jazz.  Orlando is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including three straight wins by 13, 9 and 8 points.  The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that average 56 or more boards per game over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Orlando.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on IUPUI +12

It's clear to me that IUPUI is going to be one of the best teams in the Summit League this season.  The Jaguars returned four starters this year, and they nabbed three key transfers from Loyola Chicago in Nick Osborne, Matt O'Leary and Jordan Pickett.  Another transfer, former Eastern Illinois guard Darrell Combs, is playing a big role as well.

IUPUI has opened with two tough opponents.  It beat Indiana State 72-70 on the road as 8-point underdogs, and then only lost 71-75 at Marquette as 13.5-point dogs.  Combs has led the way with 18.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg and 4.0 apg through the first two games.  Osbourne (11.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and O'Leary (8.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) are holding down the fort in the paint.

NC State came into the season overvalued after knocking off top-seeded Villanova in the NCAA Tournament last year. But the Wolfpack lost four key contributors in the offseason, and their recruiting "class" included just one person, so they have only 10 players on scholarship this year.

Trevor Lacey (15.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) left early for the NBA and went undrafted, which was a huge blow.  Ralston Turner (12.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Kyle Washington (6.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) also departed.  That leaves three returning starters in Cat Barber (12.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Lennard Freeman (3.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg).  Also, their lone recruit in the offseason was WVU transfer Terry Henderson, and he is out 6-8 weeks to start the season with an ankle injury.

NC State had one of the worst performances of the early college hoops season, losing 68-85 at home to William & Mary as 12.5-point favorites.  If that 17-point loss doesn't show how much the Wolfpack are in trouble this year, then I don't know what does.  They did rebound with an 88-70 home win over South Alabama as expected to cover the 15.5-point spread, but this underrated IUPUI team will give them a run for their money tonight.

IUPUI is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Jaguars are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two years.  IUPUI is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Bet IUPUI Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pacific -5.5

Pacific returned all five starters from a team that went just 12-19 last season.  But it was a rebuilding year last season, and now the Tigers will be a big-time sleeper in the West Coast Conference with what they have returning.

T.J. Wallace (13.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Eric Thompson (8.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Ray Bowles (6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg), David Taylor (7.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg) and Sami Eleraky (3.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are all back.  Coach Ron Verlin added a playmaker in Maleke Haynes and a stretch four in Tonko Vuko from the junior college ranks, while also nabbing high-scoring prep star Anthony Townes.  Townes is from the same high school that sent T.J. Wallace and Ray Bowles to the Tigers.

I was impressed with the way Pacific competed in its opener, a 61-79 loss at highly-ranked Arizona, covering the spread as 23.5-point underdogs.  After shaking off the nerves with a poor first half, Pacific was only outscored 37-38 after intermission by Arizona.  That's a performance that this team can build off of leading into this game with CS-Fullerton.

Cal-State Fullerton went 9-22 last year, including 1-15 in Big West play.  It is picked to finish last in the Big West again in 2015-16.  It's easy to see why as the Titans lose four starters in Alex Harris, (15.8 ppg), Moses Morgan (8.0 ppg), Steven McClellan (6.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Josh Gentry (6.2 ppg).  Their only returning starter is Kennedy Esume (4.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  To say they are starting over would be an understatement.

Fullerton lost its opener 74-79 as 2-point underdogs at Loyola-Marymount.  Keep in mind that Loyola-Marymount went 8-23 last season.  Plus, the Lions only returned two starters from last year and are pretty much starting over.  They are picked to finish last in the West Coast Conference this season, well behind Pacific.  Coach Mike Dunlap cleaned house, yet they were still able to beat this awful Fullerton team in the opener.

Pacific is 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Fullerton.  Fullerton is 9-21 ATS in road games over the last two seasons, and 17-35-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Pacific Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 93-95 loss at Charlotte on November 11 less than a week ago.  Kristaps Porzingis hit a game-winning 3-pointer for the Knicks, but it was called off because it came after the buzzer.  I look for the Knicks to have their revenge at home this time around.

New York is clearly one of the most improved teams in the league this season.  It sits at 5-6, but all six of its losses have come by 11 points or less as it has been competitive in every game.  What really shows that the Knicks are undervalued is the fact that they've gone 7-4 ATS.  They should not be underdogs here.

Charlotte has played well at home, but it's been a different story on the road.  The Bobcats are 2-4 on the road this year with their only wins coming against depleted Mavericks and Timberwolves teams at the time they played them.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.   The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.

New York outrebounded Charlotte 52-33 in the first meeting, and it's average of 15.5 second-chance points is one of the best marks in the NBA.  The Knicks also have one of the league's best scoring averages (41.7) from their bench this year.  Robin Lopez did a good job of limiting Al Jefferson to four points on 2-of-10 shooting in the first meeting.  Take the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Toledo +7

This feels a lot like last year when Bowling Green clinched the MAC East Title with a few weeks to go and proceeded to tank the rest of the way. I could easily see that happening again this year after the Falcons clinched the MAC East with their 41-27 win at Central Michigan last week. They literally have nothing to play for now, and betting on teams in these situations will get you killed.

Last year, Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title with two games left. It went on to lose 20-27 at Toledo as 7-point underdogs and 24-41 at home to Ball State as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27 points in that game. The Falcons also went on to lose to Northern Illinois 17-51 in the MAC Championship.

Toledo has everything to play for right now. It is sitting in a three-way tie with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan for first place in the MAC West and the right to play Bowling Green in the MAC Championship. The Rockets are going to have to win out and get some help because they lost a heartbreaker 27-32 to Northern Illinois, so the Huskies hold the tiebreaker over them.  But they host Western Michigan next week so they have a good shot.

The Rockets did a great job of handling their business last week in winning 28-23 at Central Michigan. This game was a bigger blowout than the final score indicated as the Rockets jumped out to a 21-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas. The Chippewas even got a defensive touchdown to help get them back in the game.

Toledo has actually outgained each of its last seven opponents this season. The only two games it got outgained this year it still found a way to beat Iowa State and Arkansas. The Rockets are very good on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8. They also give up just 5.0 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.5.

Bowling Green’s success offensively is well documented, but it will finally be up against a legitimate defense this week. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game and will be the best defense that the Falcons have seen in conference play. Bowling Green’s biggest weakness is its defense, which allows 27.9 points, 439 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

I believe the Falcons come in overvalued due to having gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Well, the last two games were a lot closer than the final scores. They beat Ohio 62-24 despite only outgaining the Bobcats by 38 yards. They also beat Western Michigan 41-27 despite only outgaining the Broncos by 18 yards.

Toledo simply owns Bowling Green, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Not only are they winning these games, they are dominating them. They have outgained Bowling Green in all five games with four of those coming by 101 yards or more. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if they win this game outright as well, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Toledo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Rockets have actually had an extra day of rest than the Falcons.  They played last Tuesday while the Falcons played on Wednesday, and that is a nice advantage for them as well.  Bet Toledo Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Memphis ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4

The Oklahoma Sooners are the No. 8 ranked team in the country for good reason this year.  They return four starters, three of them seniors, from last season's squad that went 24-11 and barely missed the Elite 8.

Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield is back after averaging 17.4 points and 5.4 rebounds last year.  Also back are Jordan Woodard (9.3 ppg, 3.8 apg), Ryan Spangler (9.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Highly regarded recruits Christian James and Rashard Odomes will play immediately.  Odomes averaged 25.2 points last year as a senior at Copperas Cove High School.  James broke his leg in an AAU game last August before his senior year of high school but is fully recovered.

Josh Pastner's seat is getting very hot at Memphis.  The Tigers went just 18-14 last season and finished 10-8 in the AAC.  They lost Kuran Iverson to transfer in the middle of last season, and saw Nick King and RaShawn Powell elect to leave the program after the season was over.

But the biggest blow for the Tigers came in July, when standout sophomore forward Austin Nichols surprisingly decided to leave the program as well, ending up with Virginia.  Nichols was the AAC Rookie of the Year two years ago and first-team all-league player last season, when he led the Tigers in scoring (13.3 ppg) and was second in the league in blocked shots (3.4 bpg).

Memphis did open with a 67-49 win over Southern Miss Saturday, but that was an awful Golden Eagles team that went 9-20 last season.  Southern Miss also returned just one starter from last year and lost its two best players in Chip Armelin (15.8 ppg) and Matt Bingaya (13.8 ppg).

Memphis also allowed 21 offensive rebounds by Southern Miss in that game, which is a sign that Pastner just doesn't have control of this team.  Look for the Tigers to get outworked by the Sooners on the glass in this one.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, losing by an average of 13.2 points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.