20* Utah State/Tennessee Sunday Night ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4.5

Tennessee is coming off three straight losing seasons and desperately wants to get back to a bowl game in 2014. It went just 5-7 last year with three of its wins coming against Austin Peay, Western Kentucky and South Alabama. It only went 2-6 in SEC play, though it did pull off one of the bigger upsets of the season within the conference by beating South Carolina at home. This is a big year for head coach Butch Jones in his second season with the Volunteers.

Utah State has been one of the more underrated teams in college football over the last two seasons. After going 11-2 in 2012 under Gary Andersen, Matt Wells inherited a talented team that finished 9-5 and played in the Mountain West Title Game. There, the Aggies gave Fresno State all they could handle, but ultimately fell 17-24. They went on to beat Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl for a nice 6-1 finish over their final seven games.

Jones has been stockpiling talent at Tennessee in his two years on the job. Fans have to be excited about the fact that he has been able to recruit with some of the best programs in the country. Indeed, the Volunteers came away with the fifth-best recruiting class in the land for 2014. This team is very close to making some noise within the SEC, and that could happen as soon as this season.

It is concerning that they only return 10 starters this year, but there are several very highly touted players ready to step in and start. I believe this team is going a bit under the radar because they have stunk up the joint the last three years, but that win over South Carolina last season shows what they are capable of. Jones will have his team ready to go in Week 1.

The Vols are showing excellent value as a small home favorite in this one. After all, Tennessee has won 19 straight home openers.  The defense returns five of its top six tacklers and will be one of the most improved units in the country.  The offense should be much better as well because QB Justin Worley is back and he has every one of his top receivers from last year back.

Utah State’s run as a sleeper is over. It was a team to be reckoned with over the last two seasons, able to play with almost anyone in the country. Now, the Aggies are in clear rebuilding mode as they return just eight starters this season. They do have Chuckie Keeton back at quarterback, but one player does not make a team. I look for the offense to take a big step back with only three starters returning.  They break in four new starters along the offensive line, lose leading rusher Joe DeMartino (1,221 yards, 13 TD), and each of their top two receivers in Travis Reynolds (51, 832, 4 TD) and Travis Van Leeuwen (52, 661, 3 TD).

The Aggies' defense figures to take a step back as well with the losses of seven of their top 11 tacklers. They only return five starters on this side of the ball and lose many of their top players, including leading tackler Jake Doughty (148 tackles, 12 for loss), Maurice Alexander (80 tackles, 9 for loss) and Nevin Lawson (57 tackles, 17 passes defended, 4 INT).  Wells benefited from the players that Andersen was able to recruit, but he won’t reap the rewards in his second season nearly as much as he did in his first.  The fact of the matter is that this is a very inexperienced team that won't be able to compete with a team from the SEC in the opener.  Bet Tennessee Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -105

The New York Yankees (70-64) have won seven of their last 10 games overall.  They are really making a charge to close out the season.  I like them to take Game 3 against the Toronto Blue Jays (68-67) to inch closer to the final wild card spot in the American League.

Brandon McCarthy is 8-13 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.310 WHIP on the season over 27 starts.  He has been much better since getting traded to the Yankees, especially of late, posting a 2.91 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in his last three starts.  McCarthy is 3-3 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto.

J.A. Happ has had a decent season for the Blue Jays by his standards, which isn't saying much because he was awful before this season.  Happ is still just 8-8 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 20 starts and four relief appearances this year.  He is 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts as well. Happ is 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in eight career starts against New York.

Happ is 4-16 (-14.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season for his career.  The Yankees are 42-17 in their last 59 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  New York is 4-0 in McCarthy's last four starts as a favorite.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.  Toronto is 0-5 in Happ's last five starts.  Roll with the Yankees Sunday.

15* LSU/Wisconsin ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU -5

I have a lot of respect for Gary Andersen and the job he has done at both Utah State and in his first year at Wisconsin last season.  The Badgers went 9-4 last season with all three of their regular season losses coming by a touchdown or less.  Then, they fell to SEC foe South Carolina 24-34 in the Capital One Bowl, and I believe that will be a sign of things to come when they face LSU to kick off their 2014 season.

Wisconsin isn't even as strong of a team as it was a year ago.  It only returns 10 starters in all this year, including three on defense.  Their stop unit takes a tremendous hit with the loss of leading tackler Chris Borland, whose 112 tackles were 49 more than second place.  He was the heart and soul of this defense and will be missed badly.  In fact, the Badgers break in seven new starters among the front seven, so look for LSU to run it down their throats all game long.

The Tigers have averaged the fourth-best recruiting class in the country over the last three years.  They are stocked with talent at the running back position, so the loss of Jeremy Hill won't be felt.  They averaged 202 yards per game and 5.0 per carry on the ground last season, and those numbers should be even better in 2014.  That's especially the case with four starters and 75 career starts returning on the offensive line, which is arguably Les Miles' best unit in his 10 years here.

I would be lying if I said that Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin's offensive line don't scare me, but if anything, that is a wash against LSU's defense.  The Tigers return seven starters on D after having just four back on that side of the ball last year.  They have allowed 3.9 or fewer yards per carry in each of the last seven seasons, which is all of the data I currently have in front of me.  Most likely, that streak extends back further.

How I see this game playing out is LSU taking a nice-sized lead in the first half and forcing Wisconsin to abandon its game plan of running the football.  The Badgers not proven they can throw the football consistently, and now they'll be without arguably their most important player on offense last year in Jared Abbrederis.  He caught 78 balls for 1,081 yards and seven touchdowns last season and constantly bailed out the offense when they needed a big play in the passing game.  In fact, the Badgers lose each of their top three receivers from last year.  Their only strength is their running game, and that's not enough to beat this stacked LSU team, or to even keep the game relatively close.

This will be the fourth time in the last five years that LSU opens with a tough neutral site game.  They are 3-0 in their last three with an average margin of victory of 10 points per game.  They beat then-No. 18 UNC (30-24) in 2010, then-No. 3 Oregon (40-27) in 2011, and then-No. 20 TCU (37-27) in 2013.  Chalk up four straight victories by 6 points or more to open the season on neutral sites for the Tigers.  Take LSU Saturday.

**Due to an error in one of the odds feeds this game switched in our system to another, so we are re-releasing it just so it grades correctly***

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Louisiana Tech +38

Oklahoma is way overvalued heading into the 2014 season because of its win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year.  I believe the Sooners caught the Crimson Tide in a letdown spot because they had played in the BCS Championship the two previous years, and they clearly were not up for that game.  While I do believe that Oklahoma should be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this year, it isn't as clear-cut as most folks in the media are making it out to be.

Trevor Knight played great down the stretch for the Sooners, but he's still just a sophomore and won't be as good as everyone is anticipating.  That's especially the case when you consider that the offense only have five starters back on this side of the ball and will be breaking in several new skill players.  I just don't believe that the Sooners have the offensive firepower to cover this 38-point spread against what will be an improved Louisiana Tech team.

Indeed, the Bulldogs will be much better in Skip Holtz's second season.  They should be one of the most improved teams in the country statistically.  They had gone 17-8 over two seasons before Holtz took over.  He was left with nothing as the Bulldogs had just seven starters back last year.  Now they have 13 starters back in 2014 and many of Holtz's own recruits in place to get significant playing time.  There will be value in backing this team in the early going because the public perception on them is down after last season's disaster.

I like the addition of former Iowa transfer Cody Sokol at quarterback.  He'll have the luxury of handing the ball off to both Kenneth Dixon (917 yards, 6.1/carry) and Tevin King (539 yards, 5.8/carry), who were bright spots on an otherwise down season last year.  The defense held its own last season in allowing a respectable 26.3 points per game despite having just four starters back.  This unit should be even better in 2014 with seven starters and five of the top six tacklers back.

Oklahoma will be without its leader defensively.  Middle linebacker Frank Shannon has been suspended for the opener, and possibly the entire season. He not only led the team in tackles (92) last year, but he's also the vocal leader of this stop unit, and the man calling the shots in the middle.  I simply believe this is a case of the betting public giving Oklahoma too much respect coming into the season, and Louisiana Tech not enough.

Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA) – in non-conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 63-25 (71.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bulldogs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn SEC Opener on Arkansas +19

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014 from a statistical standpoint.  Bret Bielema had his hands full in 2013 with just 10 starters back.  They went just 3-9, and after opening 3-0, they would lose each of their final nine games while going winless in SEC play.  While that sounds like an awful finish, I was actually impressed by a couple of their losses late in the season.

Indeed, the Razorbacks only lost 24-34 at Ole Miss as a 17-point underdog, 17-24 (OT) at home to Mississippi State as a 1-point underdog, and then 27-31 at LSU as a 26-point underdog.  They actually had LSU down 27-24 with only one minute remaining, but the Tigers drove the length of the field and stole victory from the jaws of defeat.

Now, with 14 starters returning in the second year of Bielema's system, the Razorbacks are going to sneak up on some teams this year.  They have one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at running back with Alex Collins (1,026 yards, 4 TD) and Jonathan Williams (900 yards, 4 TD).  Three starters and 51 career starts return along the offensive line.  QB Brandon Allen will be better than he was a year ago.  The defense will be improved as well with seven starters and five of the top seven tacklers back.

I am not high on Auburn at all this year.  They are way overvalued after miraculously making the national title game last season.  However, they won six games by 8 points or less, so they were very fortunate to get that far.  They wound up as SEC Champs, but there were a few teams that I would rank as better teams than them last year, including Alabama and LSU. 

The Tigers do have 14 starters back, but will be missing a key one in the opener.  QB Nick Marshall will be suspended for at least part of the game as he will not start.  He was cited in July for possession of marijuana.  It's not clear how much he will play, but he at least will not start.  Also, starting CB Jonathan Mincy will not start the game either because of the same offense.

These teams played last year with Auburn winning by a final of 35-17 on the road.  However, a closer look shows that game was much closer than the score would indicate.  The Razorbacks were only outgained 346-366 for the game, or by 20 total yards.  They actually gained seven more first downs than Auburn in the loss.  The difference in that game was that Arkansas finished -3 in turnover differential, which is unlikely to happen again.

This is an Auburn defense that gave up 421 total yards and 162 rushing yards per game last year.  Arkansas will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Tigers to keep this one close.  After all, they rushed for 222 yards while averaging 4.7 per carry against the Tigers last season.  This game will be much closer than expected, and I wouldn't be surprise to see it as a one-score game in the 4th quarter.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -26

Just as they do every year, the Alabama Crimson Tide will make their opponent look like a high school team in the opener.  That opponent in 2014 is West Virginia, which was one of the worst teams in the Big 12 last year, finishing in a tie for seventh place.  This game is going to get ugly in a hurry as the Tide roll to victory.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 straight home openers by an average of 25 points per game.  The last four have been absolute blowouts.  They beat San Jose State (48-3) as a 37-point favorite in 2010, Kent State (48-7) as a 39-point favorite in 2011, Michigan (41-14) as a 13-point favorite in 2012 and Virginia Tech (35-10) as a 21-point favorite in 2013.  You can add another blowout and cover to that résumé in 2014.

Alabama will be highly motivated after losing each of its final two games last year after a perfect 11-0 start.  This is one of Nick Saban's most experienced teams yet with 12 starters back.  The offense is going to be dynamic even with a new starting quarterback.  You have to remember that Jake Coker nearly beat out Heisman Trophy winner, Jameis Winston, last year at Florida State.

While capable, Coker won't have to do too much in the early going.  He can simply hand the ball off the to best running back corps in the country in TJ Yeldon (1,235 yards, 6.0/carry, 14 TD), Kenyan Drake (694 yards, 7.5/carry, 8 TD) and Derrick Henry (382 yards, 10.9/carry, 3 TD) all game and watch them do their thing.  They'll be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country that paved the way for 206 yards and 5.8/carry on the ground last year.

The defense only brings back five starters, but that's not a big deal at all.  The last time the Crimson Tide only had five starters back, they allowed 10.9 points per game in 2012.  This stop unit is still loaded with future NFL stars.  After all, Nick Saban's defenses have allowed 14.3 points per game or fewer for six seasons running.

Admittedly, West Virginia is not going to be as bad as last year, but that's not saying much off a 4-8 disaster that saw two of its wins come against William & Mary (24-17) and Georgia State (41-7) at home.  The Mountaineers do have 13 starters back this year after only having eight back last season, but there really isn't a lot of talent on this team.  They are still in a mess at the QB position with Clint Trickett, who only completed 52.8 percent of his passes last year with seven touchdowns and seven picks.  He's not going to be much better this year, especially in the opener against the best defense he has ever seen by far.

The Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five August games.  West Virginia is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games on fieldturf.  The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York Yankees -119

The New York Yankees (70-63) have won seven of their last nine games to get within three games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  The Toronto Blue Jays (67-67) have been reeling for months and cannot seem to get the wheels back on.  I look for the Yankees to continue their surge tonight due to their edge on the mound.

Michael Pineda has obviously made a full recovery from injury with the way he has been pitching.  Pineda has gone 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his last three.  In his lone start against Toronto this season, Pineda gave up just one earned run and five base runners in six innings of work on April 5th.

Drew Hutchison has struggled all season for Toronto.  He has gone 8-11 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.307 WHIP in 26 starts this season, 3-5 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hutchison is also 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.709 WHIP in five career starts against New York.

The Yankees are 95-56 (+14.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Toronto is 4-14 in its last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Blue Jays are 2-10 in Hutchison's last 12 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the Yankees Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Troy +3

The Troy Trojans have had just five losing seasons in the last 22 years.  Larry Blakeney enters his 24th season here as head coach, and time and time again he fields teams that are capable of competing with almost any team in the country with the talent on hand.  That's why it has been a bit mind-boggling that this team has failed to finish with a winning record in each of the last three years.

That will all change in 2014 as Blakeney welcomes back 12 returning starters after having just seven back during a 6-6 campaign last season.  This team has had some tough luck in recent years as well.  The Trojans lost a ridiculous six games by a touchdown or less during a 5-7 campaign in 2012. They then lost three games by a touchdown or less last season with two of the three exceptions coming on the road against SEC powers Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

While 12 starters doesn't seem like a big number, it is actually pretty big for Troy as it is their second-most returning starters over the last five years.  The Trojans also have 56 lettermen returning, so this is going to be a deep, experienced team.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them win the Sun Belt, which is something that has happened quite frequently under Blakeney's watch.

UAB, on the other hand, is known for losing.  It has not won more than five games in any of the past nine seasons, and it has even failed to win five games in seven of those nine years.  2013 was no exception as the Blazers went just 2-10 despite having 15 starters back.  Their only wins came against FCS opponent Northwestern State (52-28) as well as winless FIU (27-24).  They even got blown out at home in the season finale by previously winless Southern Miss (27-62).

Sure, the Blazers have 15 starters back this year, but that doesn't mean much for them because there isn't much talent to speak of here for first-year head coach Bill Clark.  In fact, the Blazers have had 14 or more starters back in four of the past five seasons.  How have they done over that time?  How about a combined 17-43 record.  So, just because a team has a lot of starters back doesn't always mean it's a good thing, especially for small-school programs like UAB who cannot recruit talent.

Troy has won four of the last five meetings in this series, including each of the last three.  Corey Robinson broke an 18-year-old NCAA record by completing 93.8% (30-32) of his passes in a 34-31 overtime win over the Blazers last season in the opener.  Remember, this was an inexperienced Troy team last year with just seven starters back.  With 12 back this year and 56 lettermen, they will be much more prepared for the opener, and should roll this time.

UAB is just 22-42 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite.  The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They had blowout losses to Vanderbilt (24-52), UTSA (31-52), Marshall (14-56), East Carolina (14-63) and Southern Miss (27-62) during this 2-7 ATS skid dating back to last season.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +21

The UCLA Bruins are coming into the 2014 season way overvalued.  They are a popular pick to win the Pac-12 this season and make the four-team playoff.  As a result, the betting public is way too high on them in the early going, starting with this opener against Virginia on the road.

Conversely, Virginia is coming off a 2-10 season in which it went winless in ACC play.  Obviously, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Cavaliers, and as a result they head into the 2014 season underdog.  They should not be catching three touchdowns against the Bruins Saturday.

Mike London hasn't gotten the most out of the talent he has had on hand.  A big reason for that is the fact that this team has been decimated by injuries in recent years.  I look for them to have better luck in that department in 2014, which will lead to them being one of the more improved teams in the country statistically.

Speaking of talent, Virginia has actually averaged the 31st-best recruiting class in the country over the last three seasons.  That talent could start paying off as soon as this year, especially when you consider that this should be London's best team yet.  Indeed, he will be working with a whopping 17 returning starters and 53 lettermen from last year's squad.

The offense is going to be vastly improved.  All of the top rushers are back, including Kevin Parks (1,031 yards, 11 TD).  QB Greyson Lambert got his feet wet with a little playing time as a freshman last year, and he's got the talent to really emerge as a sophomore.  He'll be working behind an offensive line that has three starters and 49 career starts back. 

I'm really excited about the defense as eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers return.  This will easily be one of the most improved stop units in the country.  Headlining the defense is All-ACC safety Anthony Harris, who led the nation with eight interceptions last year.  I believe this defense will keep the UCLA offense in check and allow the Cavaliers to cover three touchdowns.  Roll with Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes would be a much bigger favorite if Braxton Miller was playing.  While Miller is an excellent player, Urban Meyer has done a lot more with worse starters than JT Barrett, who will get the start Saturday against Navy.  I look for it to be business as usual for the Buckeyes, who will roll to victory against the overmatched Midshipmen in this one.

Meyer would have a case for being the best coach in college football with two national championships at Florida and a perfect 12-0 season at Utah.  That doesn't even include how he turned Bowling Green around in his time there.  Nor does it include that fact that Ohio State went a perfect 24-0 in his first 24 games as head coach over the last two seasons before dropping the last two to Michigan State and Clemson.

The quarterback is J.T. Barrett, and while he's not as athletic or dynamic as Braxton Miller, who is? Alex Smith wasn't. Josh Harris wasn't. Neither was Chris Leak nor Kenny Guiton. And Meyer did just fine with those guys, using Harris to win 17 games in two seasons at Bowling Green, Smith to go 12-0 at Utah, Leak to win a national title at Florida and Guiton to replace the injured Miller a year ago and lead the Buckeyes to three straight victories.

Meyer inherited that quartet (Smith, Harris, Leak, Guiton) from the previous staff at each school, just as he inherited Braxton Miller from Jim Tressel. In most cases, most obviously with Smith, Harris and Guiton, but also Miller, Meyer milked more than expected from each quarterback, and he did it right away.

When he hand-picks a guy at QB, they usually thrive even more.  Barrett is a handpicked recruit and one of the top-three dual-threat quarterbacks in the country coming out of high school.  Meyer handpicked Omar Jacobs at Bowling Green, and he set all kinds of school records playing for Meyer's former assistant, Gregg Brandon, in Meyer's offense.  The same thing happened at Utah with Brian Johnson, who thrived under Meyer assistant Kyle Whittingham, once again Meyer's system.  We all know how Tim Tebow and Cam Newton worked out, as well.

Barrett will be fine because this team is loaded with talented skill players around him.  But the defense is the biggest reason why I like Ohio State to roll Navy.  After returning just four starters on defense last year, the Buckeyes welcome back seven starters on D in 2014.  They will play more press coverage to mask the secondary, which was a weakness last year for this team.  It can only get better in 2014.

The good news is that the secondary won't be needed against Navy's triple-option offense.  It will be the front seven that needs to stop it, and perhaps no better team is equipped to do so than Ohio State.  It has the best defensive line in the entire country with all four starters returning from a unit that gave up only 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  This unit is loaded with nothing but future-early-round NFL draft picks in Noah Spence, Joey Bosa, Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington.

Another key to this game is that Ohio State has had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option.  Without question, the triple-option is the toughest offense to prepare for.  That's why Navy has had so much success during the regular season over the past decade.  However, when an opponent gets extra time to prepare for it, the Midshipmen are at a massive disadvantage.  They cannot adjust because that's all they run.  They is almost zero threat of the passing game.  Meyer will have the troops prepared to stop Keenan Reynolds and company.

Plays on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Ohio State Saturday.

25* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -3

It amazes me that the Colorado Buffaloes are only a 3-point favorite over the Colorado State Rams in the opener.  This is a clear line mistake, and one that we will take advantage of.  The Buffaloes beat the Rams 41-27 last year in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Buffaloes outgained the Rams 509-295 for the game.

Colorado only went 4-8 last season, and it is undervalued as a result.  This is the second year under head coach Mike MacIntyre, and the Buffaloes are going to surprise some teams this year.  They have 16 starters and 57 lettermen returning, while losing only 18 lettermen. 

That includes QB Sefo Liufao, who threw for 1,779 yards and 12 touchdowns against eight interceptions last year.  A whopping 13 of the top 16 tacklers are back on defense. MacIntyre went 1-15 in his first 16 games at San Jose State, but 16-6 in his next 22 games.  He will turn this program around as well.

Colorado State is getting too much respect for me coming into the season.  It is coming off an 8-6 season, which included a miracle comeback victory over Washington State in the bowl game as the Cougars simply gave it away.  That win over WSU is a big reason why this team is getting so much respect.  However, the losses are enormous, especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Rams only bring back 12 starters this year.  They lose leading rusher Kapri Bibbs (1,741 yards, 31 TD) as well as four starters along the offensive line.  The defensive line brings back just one of four starters, so this team figures to get owned the trenches, and there's clearly no replacing Bibbs.

The Buffaloes finished last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last five games, which included a 7-point loss at Utah as a 15-point underdog, a 29-47 home loss to USC as a 21-point dog, a 41-24 home win over Cal as a 2-point favorite, and a 23-45 loss at UCLA as a 28-point dog.  I look for them to continue being a covering machine not only at the start of 2014, but for much of the season as this team is vastly improved.  Bet Colorado Friday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on UTSA +11.5

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football entering 2014.  I actually have them winning Conference USA's West Division and squaring off against Marshall in the C-USA Title Game.  I cannot say enough good things about fourth-year head coach Larry Coker, who has really done an excellent job with this team.

UTSA went 7-5 last year, but this will be the first year that it can be bowl eligible, and I believe it will get to a bowl.  This team comes in with a ton of momentum after going 5-0 in ts final five games of 2013 with wins over FBS opponents UAB (52-31), Tulsa (34-15), Tulane (10-7), North Texas (21-13) and Louisiana Tech (30-10).  Two of those five teams made bowl games.

Now, Coker will be working with the most experienced team in the entire country.  Indeed, UTSA returns a whopping 20 starters and 55 lettermen while losing only 10.  They had 18 starters back last year, so this is a veteran group that is used to playing one another.  The Roadrunners went 7-5 last year despite finishing -7 in turnover differential on the season, too.

Sure, UTSA lost 28-59 at home to Houston last season, but a deeper look into the box score shows that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Indeed, UTSA actually outgained Houston 493-491 for the game, but it finished -5 in turnover differential as it gave the ball away five times, while the Cougars didn't cough it up once.  In fact, this was a 31-28 game heading into the 4th quarter.  This 2014 rematch will be much closer, and I even give the Roadrunners a great shot to win it outright.

Houston thrived off of turnovers last year, and it comes into 2014 overvalued as a result.  It went 8-5 last year, but it was very fortunate to finish with that record thanks to leading the country in turnover differential (+25).  That's essentially an average of +2 in turnover differential per game.  The Cougars simply cannot rely on that again in 2014, and they aren't going to be as strong as a result.  They only outgained opponents 420-416 on the year.  They do have 17 returning starters and will be a quality team, but they are getting too much love as a double-digit favorite in the 2014 opener.

The Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  UTSA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  You'll learn to love this team once you watch them give the Cougars a run for their money Friday night.  Take UTSA Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Western Kentucky +8

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be going through their third head coach in three years.  Both Willie Taggart and Bobby Petrino capitalized on getting WKU to bowl eligibility in each of the last three seasons, and they both left for greener pastures.  Taggart is now the head coach at South Florida, while Petrino returns to Louisville.

Enter Jeff Brohm, who will actually keep some continuity on this team considering he was the assistant head coach/offensive coordinator under Petrino last year.  He played quarterback under Petrino at Louisville, so he certainly has learned under one of the best offensive minds in all of college football.

Brohm and the WKU offense will have plenty of success this year after putting up 30.8 points and 459 yards per game last season.  That's because eight starters return on this side of the ball, including senior QB Brandon Doughty, who completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,857 yards with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.  He will need to cut back on his turnovers because the Hilltoppers finished -10 in turnover differential, but that's a sign that points upward for them heading into 2014.

Bowling Green is getting way too much respect after going 10-4 last year and winning the MAC.  That was a quality team, but they lose head coach Dave Clawson to Wake Forest, and they only have 12 starters back this year after bringing back 16 last year.  They are sure to take a big step back in 2014, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  They only have five starters back on D, and they were extremely fortunate to give up 15.9 ppg last year because they gave up 20.3 yards per point, which is ridiculously high.

The Falcons also finish +10 in turnover differential last year to aid their cause.  They did go 3-2 in true road games, but their three wins came against lowly Kent State, Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan, who went a combined 6-30 last season.  They also lost at Indiana (10-42).  This is going to be a quality team again in 2014, but nowhere near as strong as 2013.  Asking the Falcons to win by more than a touchdown on the road against a quality WKU squad is simply asking too much.

Plays on home teams (W KENTUCKY) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  WKU is 10-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Roll with Western Kentucky Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +105

The New York Yankees (69-63) have won six of their last eight games overall to get within three games of Seattle and Detroit for the final wild card spot in the American League.  While the Yankees are surging, the Toronto Blue Jays (67-66) have been reeling for months and cannot seem to put the wheels back on the bus.

Chris Capuano has filled in nicely as a starter for the Yankees this season, posting a 4.21 ERA and 1.239 WHIP over six starts.  He is 1-0 with a 4.70 ERA in three career starts against Toronto, giving up two or fewer earned runs in two of the three starts.  He faced the Blue Jays once in 2014, giving up two earned runs over six innings on July 26.

Mark Buehrle is having a decent season overall for Toronto, going 11-8 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in 26 starts.  He has struggled of late, going 0-0 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.668 WHIP in his last three starts.  Buehrle cannot figure out the Yankees, going 1-12 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.  His teams are 2-17 in those starts.

The Yankees are 41-17 in their last 58 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series.  New York is 22-10 in its last 32 meetings with Toronto.  Bet the Yankees Friday.

20* 2014 College Football Season Opener on Tulsa -4.5

Tulsa was coming off a Conference USA Title in 2012 as it went 11-3 and beat Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl.  It had gone a combined 29-11 in three seasons prior to 2013's 3-9 disaster.  There were a lot of signs pointing downward last year, though, as they had just nine returning starters, including two on defense.

I look for Tulsa to to be a much-improved team in 2014 with 15 returning starters for head coach Bill Blankenship.  A whopping 10 of those come on defense, where the Golden Hurricane will be vastly improved after giving up 33.9 points and 430 yards per game last year.  THe offense also figures to take a step forward despite only five starters coming back.  They had averaged at least 33 points per game in three years prior to 2013, where they averaged just 21.1 points.

Sophomore Dane Evans will be the QB after gaining valuable experience there last year.  He has the luxury of welcoming back junior receiver Keyarris Garrett, who had 845 receiving yards in 2012 before missing all but two starts last year due to injury.  This is a talented set of skill players led by Garrett.  The defense has 17 of its top 19 tacklers back from last year and a ton of depth heading into 2014.

I was big on Tulane last year, and it delivered by going 7-6 and making it to a bowl game.  However, that team was very fortunate to get bowl eligible because it was nowhere near as good as its record would indicate.  In fact, it only gained 311 yards per game offensively while giving up 351 yards per game on defense.  It was actually outgained by 40 yards per game on the season.

The key to Tulane's season was finishing +11 in turnover differential, while Tulsa went -10 in turnover differential.  I expect some regression to the mean for both teams this year.  Tulane did beat Tulsa 14-7 at home last year despite getting outgained 301-344 for the game.  It forced four turnovers from Tulsa en route to victory.  I look for the Golden Hurricane to have their revenge at home this time around because they are a lot more experienced, while the Green Wave figure to take a step back as soon as the opener.

Tulsa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Tulane, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Before last year's 7-point loss, the Golden Hurricane had won their previous eight meetings with the Green Wave by 35, 28, 28, 24, 49, 24, 35 and 24 points, respectively.  I look for them to get back to dominating this series in 2014 with a blowout home victory.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -118

The Atlanta Braves (69-64) are just 1.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are also 2.5 games behind St. Louis for the first spot.  While the Braves have everything to play for, the New York Mets (62-71) realize that they are pretty much playing out the string at this point.

I've been impressed with how Mike Minor has been able to bounce back down the stretch after a poor first half.  Indeed, the left-hander has gone 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has only allowed three earned runs and 11 base runners over 14 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Reds and A's.  Minor gave up two earned runs and four base runners over seven innings in his last start against New York on July 7.

Jon Niese is a quality big league starter, but he and the Mets are getting a little too much respect here given their situation.  Niese is 7-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.423 WHIP in his last three starts.  Niese is also 6-5 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 16 career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Mets are 31-70 in their last 101 games as a home underdog.  New York is 0-4 in Niese's last four starts as an underdog.  The Mets are 0-5 in Niese's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Braves Thursday.

15* 2014 NFLX Season Finale on St. Louis Rams +3

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -125

The Atlanta Braves (68-64) trail the San Francisco Giants by 1.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League.  After dropping the opener of this series to the New York Mets (62-70) Tuesday for their third straight loss overall, I look for the Braves to bounce back in a big way in Game 2 Wednesday.

They send ace Julio Teheran to the mound to get the job done.  The right-hander is having a tremendous season, going 12-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.079 WHIP over 27 starts.  He has owned the Mets, going 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in five career starts against them.

Zack Wheeler has been solid for New York as well, but he's not on the same level as Teheran.  Wheeler is 9-8 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 26 starts, including 4-4 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 10 home starts.  He has posted a 3.50 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta.

New York is 1-11 (-10.4 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base this season.  The Braves are 10-2 in Teheran's last 12 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mets are 31-69 in their last 100 games as a home underdog.  New York is 0-5 in Wheeler's last five starts as a home underdog.  Bet the Braves Wednesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians +125

The Cleveland Indians (66-63) are still very much alive for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They are 4.5 games back of Seattle for the last spot, and they're still alive in the AL Central race as well.  They'll be going for their 10th win in 14 games tonight.  They'll be up against a Chicago (59-71) team that has lost six in a row while scoring a combined 16 runs in the process.

Cleveland's starters have posted a 1.71 ERA during a 9-4 stretch.  T.J. House has settled into the rotation nicely of late.  The rookie left-hander hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last eight starts.  He has posted a 1.65 ERA in the month of August.  House gave up only one run and struck out eight in 6 1/3 innings in his lone career starts against Chicago on May 28.

Jose Quintana is having a solid season for the White Sox at 6-10 with a 3.25 ERA.  However, he has struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts.  Quintana is getting too much respect from the books here.  The White Sox have little to play for, and House is pitching much better than Quintana of late.

Cleveland is 29-7 (+19.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Indians are 48-18 (+23.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 0-6 in Quintana's last six home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Indians Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -128

The Pittsburgh Pirates (67-64) sit just 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are also very much alive for the NL Central Title with a big finish.  After losing Game 1 of this series to the Cardinals (71-59), I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.

Gerrit Cole is one of the better young starters in the game today.  He has gone 7-4 with a 3.69 ERA in 15 starts.  Cole has been at his best at home, going 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in eight starts.  Cole is also 2-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in four career starts against St. Louis.

Lance Lynn is having a solid season for St. Louis as well, going 14-8 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 26 starts.  However, he has been at his worst on the road, going 5-5 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Lynn is 5-4 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 13-3 in Cole's last 16 starts as a favorite.  The Pirates are 6-1 in Cole's last seven starts overall.  Pittsburgh is 20-9 in its last 29 home games.  The Pirates are 6-0 in Cole's last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last five starts as an underdog.  Take the Pirates Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -142

The Washington Nationals are the hottest team in baseball over the last two weeks.  They have won 12 of their last 13 games overall and now own the best record in the National League at 75-54.  They wants to keep it rolling to try and earn the No. 1 seed in the NL.  That shouldn't be a problem against the Philadelphia Phillies (58-72), who have nothing to play for but pride.

Tanner Roark has been dominant this season for Washington, going 12-7 with a 2.80 ERA.  The right-hander is 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his last eight starts and 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last eight road starts.  He allowed one run and four base runners over seven innings of a 10-3 win at Philadelphia in his last start against the Phillies on July 13.

A.J. Burnett has had a terrible year for Philadelphia, going 6-14 with a 4.42 ERA.  He has matched a career high with six consecutive defeats and a 6.41 ERA in his last six starts as well.  Burnett leads the majors with 76 walks this season.  He gave up five runs in 1 2/3 innings in his last start against Washington on August 2.

The Nationals are 73-34 in their last 107 vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 7-1 in Roark's last eight starts.  The Phillies are 1-10 in Burnett's last 11 starts.  Philadelphia is 0-7 in Burnett's last seven starts as an underdog.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

15* Chargers/49ers NFLX Sunday No-Brainer on San Diego +6

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -136

After losing the first two games of this series to Pittsburgh, I look for the Milwaukee Brewers to dig deep and get a win in Game 3 Sunday to avoid the sweep.  I like the edge they have on the mound today, and they're worth the price of admission because of it.

Mike Fiers is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.524 WHIP over three starts this season.  He has allowed just two earned runs and 11 base runners while striking out 25 over 21 innings of work.

Vance Worley is having a solid season at 5-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.189 WHIP over 11 starts and three relief appearances.  However, he has struggled of late, giving up five earned runs over six innings in his last start.  Worley is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 8-1 in their last nine games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Brewers are 37-18 in their last 55 during game 3 of a series.  The Pirates are 114-242 in their last 356 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Brewers Sunday.

15* Texans/Broncos NFLX No-Brainer on Houston +7

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -114

After losing Game 1 of this series to the Philadelphia Phillies, I look for the St. Louis Cardinals to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.  They trail the Milwaukee Brewers by just 1.5 games for first place in the NL Central after winning seven of their last nine games overall.

Shelby Miller gets the ball for the Cardinals today.  He went 15-9 last year with a 3.06 ERA and 1.206 WHIP over 31 starts to flash his potential.  He hasn't been as effective in 2014, going 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.389 WHIP, but he is the better starter in this match-up.

David Buchanan gets the ball for Philadelphia.  He has gone 6-7 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 6-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in seven home starts.  Miller is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia.

The Cardinals are 38-18 in their last 56 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  St. Louis is 4-0 in Miller's last four starts as a road favorite.  The Phillies are 1-4 in Buchanan's last five starts as an underdog.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Bucs/Bills NFLX Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +3

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* NFLX Friday No-Brainer on Chicago Bears +7

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -102

The Detroit Tigers (68-57) are showing tremendous value against the Minnesota Twins (56-70) today.  They are trying to chase down the Kansas City Royals for first place in the AL Central, while also holding on to a wild card spot.  They are 100% focused from here on in because of it.

I realize that Robbie Ray has not fared well this year, but it has been in limited action, so I'm willing to cut him some slack.  He has posted a 5.33 ERA over five starts and one relief appearance.  However, one of those starts came against Minnesota on May 11th.  Ray pitched six shutout innings in that game while allowing just five base runners in his best start of the year.

The Twins have lost four of five coming in, and starter Tom Milone is getting too much respect here.  He has gone 6-4 with a 3.99 ERA over 18 starts this season.  However, he was rocked in his last outing on August 17th, giving up six earned runs over 1 1/3 innings in a 6-12 loss to Kansas City.

Minnesota is 1-10 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 over the last 3 seasons.  The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  The Twins are 29-65 in their last 94 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 21-9 in its last 30 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* Steelers/Eagles NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 50.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -122

The Los Angeles Angels are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have won seven of their last eight games overall and own the best record in all of baseball with a 75-50 mark.  I look for them to sweep the lowly Boston Red Sox (56-70), who have pretty much quit on their season.

Matt Shoemaker has filled in for a couple guys in the starting rotation very nicely this year.  He has gone 11-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.188 WHIP over 14 starts and seven relief appearances.  He is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA in his last three starts as well.

Rubby De La Rosa has been decent for Boston in limited action as well.  He is 4-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 12 starts this year.  However, he gave up six earned runs and 13 base runners over four innings to Houston in his last start on August 16th.

The Angels are scoring 4.7 runs/game overall and 5.0 on the road.  The Red Sox are scoring 3.8 runs/game overall and 3.8 at home.  The Angels are 40-13 in their last 53 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Red Sox are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Angles Thursday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds +107

The Cincinnati Reds are highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost four straight and seven of eight, but they are still just five games out in the NL wild card race with plenty to play for the rest of the way.  Their lone victory during this rough stretch came with tonight's starter on the mound.

Johnny Cueto is one of the best starters in baseball.  He can be the majors' first pitcher to 16 victories while winning a sixth straight start Wednesday.  Cueto is 15-6 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.906 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  He has allowed a total of seven runs while winning each of his last five starts.

In his last two starts against St. Louis, Cueto has pitched 14 innings while allowing just two runs on a pair of solo homers.  Lance Lynn has not fared well against Cincinnati, posting a 4.80 ERA in eight career starts.  In two starts against the Reds this year, Lynn has posted a 6.55 ERA while yielding eight runs in 11 innings.

Cueto is 13-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.  Dating back further, Cincinnati is 42-16 in Cueto's last 58 starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5.  The Reds have not been swept in St. Louis since Sept. 26-28, 2008, which is something that Cueto and company will be looking to avoid tonight.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -110

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (70-56) at this kind of price at home.  They will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers last series to lose three in a row.

Kevin Correia has proven to be a solid addition to Los Angeles' rotation of late.  He has really turned it on in his last three starts, going 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP while allowing just five earned runs and 16 base runners over 18 innings of work.

Ian Kennedy is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers for my liking tonight.  The right-hander is 9-10 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 25 starts this year, so he has had a good season, but he's overvalued as a result.  Kennedy is 5-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 14 career starts against Los Angeles.

Los Angeles is 38-9 (+27.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are 16-3 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive losses this season.  The Padres are 0-5 in Kennedy's last five road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  San Diego is 0-4 in its last four games following an off day.  Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -121

The Los Angeles Angels (73-50) have won five of their last six to own baseball's best record.  The Boston Red Sox (56-68) have lost three of four and clearly have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  I'll take the Angels tonight due to the motivation and their edge on the mound.

Ace Jered Weaver gets the ball for Los Angeles tonight.  The right-hander has gone 13-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 26 starts this season and remains one of the best starters in baseball.  Weaver has posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 17 career starts against Boston.

Allen Webster is no more than a fill-in starter for Boston.  He has gone 3-1 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in four starts this year.  Webster has been at his worst at home, where he is 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.845 WHIP in two starts.

The Angels are 38-13 in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 60-22 in Weaver's last 82 starts as a favorite.  The Angels are 11-1 in Weaver's last 12 Tuesday starts.  The Red Sox are 6-16 in their last 22 games as a home underdog.  Boston is 1-6 in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* Browns/Redskins Monday Night MASSACRE on Cleveland +3

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels -121

The Los Angeles Angels have climbed into first place in the AL West division thanks to a recent skid by the Oakland A's.  They have now the best record in baseball and have gone a bit under the radar this season with what the A's had been doing until recently.

C.J. Wilson clearly hasn't had his best season, but he is the better starter in tonight's matchup.  The left-hander has gone 9-8 with a 4.71 ERA over 22 starts this year.  Wilson has owned Boston, going 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA in nine career starts.  His teams are 7-2 in those nine games.

Brandon Workman wouldn't start on most teams in the big leagues.  He has gone 1-6 with a 4.45 ERA over 10 starts and four relief appearances for the Red Sox.  He has been at his worst at home, going 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in five starts.

Wilson is 8-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 34-12 (+18.8 Units) against the money line after allowing four runs or less four straight games over the last three seasons.

The Angels are 51-18 in their last 69 vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 8-2 in Wilson's last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.  The Red Sox are 6-14 in their last 20 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Boston is 0-6 in Workman's last six starts overall.  Bet the Angels Monday.

15* Broncos/49ers NFLX No-Brainer on Denver +4.5

 No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations. 

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -104

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value Sunday at essentially even money against the Minnesota Twins.  The Royals have won 19 of their last 24 games overall and are right in the thick of the AL Central race for the top spot in the division.

Jeremy Guthrie has really stepped up his game of late, going 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts.  Guthrie is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 12 career starts against Minnesota.

Minnesota is 2-16 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Royals are 5-0 in Guthries last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

15* NFLX Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +3.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* American League ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Royals -107

The Kansas City Royals (67-54) are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They have won 19 of their last 23 to jump into first place in the AL Central.  The Minnesota Twins (54-66) are not about to slow them down tonight.

Yordano Venture is having a quality season in his first as a full-time starter for the Royals.  He has gone 9-8 with a 3.45 ERA in 23 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three.  He gave up one earned run over seven innings of a 6-3 win over the Twins on July 31.

Phil Hughes has been the best starter on Minnesota's staff this year, but that's not saying much.  He is 12-8 with a 3.88 ERA in 24 starts, but has struggled at home, going 4-5 with a 5.17 ERA in 12 starts.  Hughes has also posted a 5.74 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 10 career starts against Kansas City.

Minnesota is 6-28 (-20.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season.  The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas City is 5-0 in Ventura's last five starts vs. AL Central foes.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

20* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens Money Line -110

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NFLX Friday No-Brainer on San Diego Chargers +6

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Padres/Cardinals UNDER 7

Two of the worst offenses in the league square off tonight in the Padres (3.3 RPG, .225 AVG) and the Cardinals (3.7 RPG, .251 AVG).  I look for an absolute pitcher's duel tonight between two of the most underrated starters in baseball.

Tyson Ross has been dominant, going 11-10 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 25 starts with 160 strikeouts over 160 2/3 innings.  He is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Ross has faced the Cardinals once in his career, allowing one earned run over six innings of a 3-1 Padres' victory on July 29.

Lance Lynn is having the best year of his career.  The right-hander has gone 12-8 with a 2.97 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three.  Lynn has been at his best at home, going 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA in 13 starts.

Lynn is 8-0 UNDER (+8.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 21-5-3 in Padres last 29 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The UNDER is 27-10-1 in Ross' last 38 starts.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Lynn's last seven home starts.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Angels (70-49) have the second-best record in baseball.  They trail the Oakland A's by just two games for the AL West lead and will be laying it all on the line the rest of the way to go for it.  They had a day off yesterday and not get to face the league-worst Texas Rangers (47-74), who did not have yesterday off and lost the Rays (6-3).

Garrett Richards has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season.  The right-hander has gone 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 24 starts, including 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Richards is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA in nine career starts against Texas. He has allowed one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Rangers this season.

Nick Martinez is easily one of the worst starters in baseball.  The right-hander has gone 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 15 starts and eight relief appearances this season.  Martinez has been at his worst at home, going 0-4 with a monstrous 10.18 ERA and 2.361 WHIP in five starts.

The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven meetings with the Rangers with six of those victories coming by two runs or more.  The Rangers are 0-9 against the run line (-11.8 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.  Texas is 0-9 against the run line (-11.4 Units) in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Mariners/Tigers UNDER 8

I look for a pitcher's duel tonight between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers.  While Seattle has been terrible at the plate (3.9 RPG, .246 AVG) this year, it has made up for it by having the best team ERA in the majors.  In fact, their team ERA is sub-3.00 for the season.  Opponents are only hitting .224 and scoring 3.2 RPG against them this year.

James Paxton has been one of the bright young stars in Seattle's farm system.  He has gotten his chance to start briefly this season, and he has made the most of it.  Paxton has gone 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in four starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two road starts.

Rick Porcello is making his case as to why he should remain in Detroit's rotation.  The right-hander is having his finest season yet, going 13-7 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.144 WHIP over 22 starts and one relief appearance.  Porcello is 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts, and 4-2 with a 3.48 ERA in seven career starts against Seattle.

The UNDER is 40-17-2 in Mariners last 59 games overall.  The UNDER is 25-8-1 in Mariners last 34 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Tigers last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Tigers last five games following a win.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds +110

Great value here for a Cincinnati Reds team that needs to make a run.  At 60-60, they trail the Brewers by 5.5 games for first place in the NL Central and the Cardinals by 3.5 games for the final NL wild card spot.  They should get right against the league-worst Colorado Rockies (46-74).

Alfredo Simon is having a tremendous season in Cincinnati this year.  The right-hander has gone 12-7 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 23 starts, including 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 12 road starts.  He'll be up against a Rockies team that is without their two best players in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Jorge De La Rosa has been the best starter in Colorado's rotation this year, but that's not saying much.  The left-hander has gone 11-8 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 23 starts.  De La Rosa hasn't had any success against tonight's opponent, going 2-2 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.924 WHIP in four career starts against the Reds.

Cincinnati is 34-8 (+25.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last three seasons.  The Rockies are 12-43 in their last 55 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Colorado is 5-22 in its last 27 during game 1 of a series.

Simon is 9-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.  The Reds are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Reds are 7-0 in Simons last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Cincinnati. Bet the Reds Thursday.

15* Jaguars/Bears NFLX Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +4

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -106

The A's (73-46) put an end to the Royals' (64-54) eight games winning streak last night with an emphatic 11-3 victory.  The Royals had taken over first place in the AL Central and had a letdown.  This happened earlier in the season as well after taking the AL Central lead, and the letdown lasted for a while.  I look for it to spill over into Game 2 tonight.

Oakland sends left-hander Scott Kazmir to the mound tonight.  He has gone 13-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  The Royals are scoring just 3.6 runs per game against southpaws in 2014.

Lefty Jason Vargas gets the ball for the Royals.  He has been solid for the most part, going 8-5 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 21 starts.  However, he is 4-3 with a 4.69 ERA in 11 home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in his last three.  The A's are scoring 5.0 runs per game against southpaws this year.

Kazmir is 28-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The A's are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a road favorite.  Oakland is 65-29 in its last 94 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The A's are 10-1 in Kazmir's last 11 starts on four days of rest.  Bet the A's Wednesday.

15* White Sox/Giants Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago -112

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back ace Chris Sale at this kind of price.  I'll take advantage and back the Chicago White Sox tonight against the reeling San Francisco Giants, who have lost four in a row and just cannot seem to turn it around.

Sale has put up Cy Young-type numbers in 2014.  Indeed, the left-hander has gone 10-2 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in 18 starts.  He has been at his best away from home, going 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.030 WHIP in six road starts.

Ryan Vogelsong has had a nice bounce-back season for the Giants, but he's still no match for Sale.  The right-hander has gone 7-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in 23 starts this year.

San Francisco is 1-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line after two straight games with one or less extra base hits this season.  The White Sox are 6-1 in their last seven during game 1 of a series.  Chicago is 40-19 in its last 59 interleague games as a favorite.  The Giants are 7-21 in their last 28 home games.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Vogelsong's last six home starts.  Roll with the White Sox Tuesday.

20* NL Mound Mismatch GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -140

The Washington Nationals (63-53) had Monday off and will be the fresher, more focused team tonight as they look to extend their NL East lead.  The New York Mets (57-62) played yesterday and now return home from a seven-game road trip.  That first home games following a long road trip tends to lead to a letdown for players.

The biggest reason I'll be laying this juice on the Nationals today is due to their edge on the mound.  Doug Fister is 11-3 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 16 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.844 WHIP in his last three.

Fister is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in two career starts against the Mets.  He'll be opposed by Rafael Montero, who is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP In his last four starts.  He's no more than a fill-in starter for New York.

The Nationals are 38-14 in their last 52 meetings with the Mets, including 22-4 in their last 26 meetings in New York.  The Mets are 30-65 in their last 95 games as a home underdog.  Washington is 7-0 in its last seven after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -144

The St. Louis Cardinals (62-55) will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing Game 1 of this series by a final of 5-6 for their third loss in four games.  They now trail the Brewers by three games for first place in the NL Central.

Ace Adam Wainwright is here to bail them out.  The right-hander has gone 14-6 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 9-3 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Wainwright is 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career starts against the Marlins.

Jarred Cosart will take the ball for the Marlins in this one.  The right-hander has gone 9-8 this season, but he has posted a 4.51 ERA and 1.447 WHIP over 21 starts.  Cosart is 4-5 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three.

The Cardinals are 52-20 in Wainwright's last 72 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 6-0 in Wainwright's last six starts vs. NL East opponents.  Wainwright is 12-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Take the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -105

The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves two games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the NL Central.  They will be motivated for a victory Monday as they take on the Miami Marlins (57-60), who return from a long road trip.  That first game home after a long trip is usually tough for players for family reasons.

After getting a two-week break from St. Louis' rotation, Shelby Miller has come back a different starter.  He has gone 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.589 WHIP in three starts since that break.  He allowed one run and four hits to Boston his last time out.

Tom Koehler is having a solid season for the Marlins, going 7-9 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 23 starts.  However, in his lone career start against St. Louis last year, Koehler gave up nine runs and two homers over 4 2/3 innings of a 7-13 home loss on June 15.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in Miller's last four starts as a road favorite.  The Marlins are 18-37 in their last 55 vs. National League Central opponents.  Miami is 0-4 in Koehler's last four starts vs. NL Central foes.  The Marlins are 7-16 in Koehler's last 23 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings and 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Miami.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

25* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Braves -113

The Atlanta Braves represent my strongest play of the entire 2014 season on the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball stage.  Yes, I have ridden them a lot without success of late, but they have also lost a lot of games by a single run or in extra innings, as was the case again last night.

I look for them to redeem themselves tonight with the edge they have on the mound as they try and chase down the Nationals for first place.  Alex Wood has posted a 3.20 ERA in 15 starts and 11 relief appearances this year, including a 2.96 ERA in the 15 starts.  Wood is 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA in four career starts against Washington.

Gio Gonzalez has finally started showing signs of slowing down this season.  The left-hander is 6-8 with a 4.01 ERA in 18 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts.  Gonzalez is 2-7 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 10 career starts against Atlanta.

The Nationals are 18-40 in their last 58 games as a road underdog.  Washington is 0-5 in Gonzalez's last five starts vs. NL East opponents.  The Braves are 36-15 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Atlanta is 23-7 in its last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Braves Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +102

The Atlanta Braves returned home yesterday and put an end to an eight-game losing streak with a 7-6 victory over the rival Nationals, who they now trail by 3.5 games in the NL East.  I look for them to keep the foot on the gas and to get a victory in Game 2 at a tremendous price at home tonight.

Aaron Harang is having a great season in Atlanta, going 9-6 with a 3.41 ERA in 23 starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 12 starts.  Harang has posted a 3.72 ERA in 10 career starts against Washington as well.

Tanner Roark is getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  He has gone 11-7 with a 2.94 ERA in 22 starts out of nowhere.  However, he has posted a 3.49 ERA in 11 road starts and has been at his worst away from home.  Roark has also given up six earned runs over 10 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

Atlanta is 22-7 (+14.3 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.  The Braves are 36-15 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Saturday.

20* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay +2

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* NFLX Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo Bills -1.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -110

The Pittsburgh Pirates are hitting .297 with 36 runs during a 4-2 start this month despite some key absences in the lineup, including Andrew McCutchen.  They have pulled within a half-game of wild card leaders St. Louis and San Francisco, and they are just 1 1/2 games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central.

Vance Worley has proven to be a tremendous addition to the rotation.  The right-hander has gone 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.095 WHIP over eight starts and three relief appearances.  He is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts, and 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two career starts against San Diego.

Ian Kennedy has gone 8-9 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 23 starts this season for San Diego.  He has struggled a bit of late, going 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.  Also, Kennedy is 0-2 with a 12.91 ERA in his last two starts at Pittsburgh, the latest a 10-1 loss on September 19th.

Worley is 20-5 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in his career.  San Diego is 6-24 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win by two runs or less over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 23-8 in its last 31 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Pirates Friday.

15* NFLX Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +3.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

15* Thursday MLB Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Royals -112

The Kansas City Royals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now.  They have won 11 of their last 14 games overall to pick within 3.5 games of the Detroit Tigers for first place in the AL Central, as well as a half-game behind Toronto for the second wild-card spot.

Jeremy Guthrie is coming off one of his best performances of the season.  He blanked the A's over six innings to get the win in a 1-0 victory at Oakland on August 1st.  Guthrie has posted a 4.28 ERA in 11 road starts this season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (49-65) have lost four of their last five and are without their best hitter in Paul Goldschmidt for the rest of the season.  They turn to Vidal Nuno, who is 2-7 with a 4.37 ERA in 19 starts this year.

The Royals are 47-21 in their last 68 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, including 24-9 in their last 33 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Nuno's last five starts overall.  Arizona is 1-6 in its last seven interleague games as an underdog.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

20* NFLX Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -2.5

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -117

The Chicago Cubs have called up some of their prized prospects recently, and they are playing their best baseball of the season largely due to it.  They have won six of their last eight games overall after Javier Baez hit a game-winning home run in the 12th inning last night in his major league debut.

Now the Cubs send their best starter to the mound in Jake Arrieta.  The right-hander has gone 6-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in 16 starts this season with 106 K's in 98 innings.  Arrieta held the Rockies to one run and five base runners over seven innings of a 3-1 victory on July 31 in his lone career start against them.

The Rockies have all but packed it in, losing eight of their last nine games overall with six of those losses coming by multiple runs.  They are banged up right now without Troy Tulowitzki.  Jordan Lyles will be making his first start since June 4th and will likely be on a pitch count.  Lyles has posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in 12 starts this year.

Chicago is 13-6 in Arrieta's last 19 starts overall.  The Cubs are 5-1 in Arrieta's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Colorado is 16-44 in its last 60 games overall.  The Rockies are 22-57 in their last 79 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Colorado is 0-4 in Lyles' last four starts.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Braves -115

Yes, I have been backing the Atlanta Braves a lot the last few days with no success.  But no, I'm not going to give up on them when they are this highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost seven in a row and really need this victory to avoid a winless road trip.  I look for them to get it behind their ace on the mound.

Julio Teheran has gone 10-7 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.042 WHIP over 23 starts this season.  He leads the Braves in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts while tying Ervin Santana with the most wins.  He held the Dodgers to two runs over eight innings in an absolute duel with Clayton Kershaw last time out.

Chris Young is having a nice bounce-back season for the Mariners, but the fact of the matter is he's past his prime and it's been more of an aberration than anything.  Young has rarely fared well against the Braves, going 2-4 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.564 WHIP in eight career starts against Atlanta.

Seattle is 9-25 (-17.6 Units) against the money line after allowing two runs or less two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 8-2 in Teheran's last 10 starts during game 2 of a series.  Atlanta is 19-8 in Teheran's last 27 starts as a favorite.  Take the Braves Wednesday.

15* Angels/Dodgers MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-111)

The Los Angeles Angels are showing tremendous value on the run line today against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers are clearly overvalued here due to having Clayton Kershaw on the mound, and we'll take advantage.

Hector Santiago is having a fine season for the Angels and he's not getting the respect he deserves here.  The right-hander has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.253 WHIP over 79 innings pitched this year.  He is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kershaw is having another dominant campaign, but he has struggled recently against the Angels.  He is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA in his last three starts against the Angels, giving up 11 earned runs, three homers and 25 base runners over 21 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 0-9 against the run line (-12.2 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last two seasons.  Kershaw is 5-15 against the run line (-11.5 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.  Take the Angels on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +168

The Atlanta Braves are going to be highly motivated for a victory Tuesday when they open a two-game series with the Seattle Mariners.  They have lost six in a row coming into this one with four of the six losses coming by a single run.

"We've just got to turn this thing around," first baseman Freddie Freeman said. "We can't just keep saying, 'We'll get them tomorrow.' It has to be tomorrow, meaning Tuesday. We just have to relax and regroup. We're not out of this thing."

While Felix Hernandez is getting too much respect here, Atlanta's Alex Wood is not getting enough.  The left-hander has gone 7-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Hernandez gave up five runs and 13 base runners over 7 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Braves.  Freeman went 3-for-4 in the 5-3 win.

Atlanta is 73-41 (+30.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.  The Braves are 12-3 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 12-2 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better since 1997.  The Braves are 36-17 in their last 53 games following an off day.  The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight games as a favorite.  Roll with the Braves Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -116

Paul Goldschmidt will be out for the rest of the season for the Arizona Diamondbacks (49-63) with a broken left hand.  The 2013 NL MVP runner-up, Goldschmidt hit .300 and also led the team in most offensive categories, including homers (19), RBIs (69), walks (64) and on-base percentage (.396).

Getting an offense going that's missing its biggest piece going could be difficult against the Royals (57-53), whose pitchers have a 2.81 ERA while winning nine of 12. Kansas City was outscored 10-8 at Oakland over the weekend, but still took two of three from baseball's best team.  It is now just 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the American League with plenty to play for.

Kansas City's Danny Duffy is having a fine season, but he is not getting a ton of run support.  The left-hander is 5-10 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 0.93 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in his last three.

That support should come tonight against Wade Miley, who is 7-7 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 23 starts for the Diamondbacks.  The left-hander has really struggled at home, going 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 10 starts this season.

The Royals are 29-11 in their last 40 games as a road favorite.  Kansas City is 4-0 in its last four interleague road games.  The Royals are 10-1 in Duffy's last 11 starts as a favorite.  The Diamondbacks are 3-14 in their last 17 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Arizona is 1-6 in Miley's last seven starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +135

Both the Chicago Cubs (47-63) and Colorado Rockies (44-67) have little to play for at this point.  However, it has been evident that the Cubs have not quit.  They have started to call up some of their prized prospects, and they have won five of their last seven coming in, including taking two out of three from the Dodgers on the road last series.

Colorado, meanwhile, has lost seven of its last eight games overall.  It is banged up right now playing without star SS Troy Tulowitzki and RF Michael Cuddyer.  Carlos Gonzalez has also been out, but he may return this series.  Brett Anderson has gone 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.847 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field this season.

Travis Wood clearly hasn't been as effective as he was last season, but now he faces a team that he has enjoyed plenty of success against in the past. Wood is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.208 WHIP over four career starts against Colorado.  He struck out 11 in six innings of a 4-6 loss to the Rockies on July 30th.

Colorado is 5-18 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.  The Rockies are 7-23 (-16.0 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season.  The Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series. Chicago is 6-1 in Wood's last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 16-43 in their last 59 overall.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Mound Mismatch on Cincinnati Reds +107

Yes, the home team has won 12 straight in this in-state rivalry between the Reds and Indians.  Yes, Cincinnati has lost 10 in a row in Cleveland.  However, I look for both of those streaks to come to an emphatic end tonight due to the edge the Reds have on the mound.

Johnny Cueto is one of the best starters in the business.  He has gone 12-6 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last three.  Cueto has never lost to Cleveland, going 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in five career starts.  The Reds are 5-0 in those five games.

Josh Tomlin is nowhere near on the level of Cueto.  The right-hander has gone 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.188 WHIP over 14 starts and two relief appearances this year.  He has been terrible at home, going 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.363 WHIP in seven starts.  Tomlin is also 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati.

Tomlin is 0-9 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last three seasons.  The Reds are 76-32 in their last 108 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Cincinnati is 40-16 in Cueto's last 56 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  The Indians are 0-4 in Tomlin's last four home starts.  Take the Reds Tuesday.

20* Tigers/Yankees ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Detroit -119

This is a great price for the Detroit Tigers (61-47), who clearly have the edge on the mound over the New York Yankees (57-53) on ESPN's Monday Night Baseball.  I'll gladly back reigning AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer over Brandon McCarthy today.

Scherzer is having another fine season, going 13-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.171 WHIP over 22 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three.  The right-hander has owned the Yankees, going 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Due to injuries in the rotation, the Yankees were basically forced to go out and trade for an arm.  They could have done a lot better than McCarthy, who has gone 6-10 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.362 WHIP over 22 starts this season in his time between Arizona and New York.

The Tigers are 43-12 in Scherzer's last 55 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 41-14 in Scherzer's last 55 starts overall.  The Yankees are 8-26 in their last 34 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Tigers Monday.

20* Bills/Giants NFL Preseason No-Brainer on Buffalo -1 (-120)

No Analysis For Preseason.  Picks are based off of team depth, especially QB depth, and coaching strategies among other situations.

25* National League GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Braves +125

The Atlanta Braves are in desperate need of a victory.  They have lost five straight and will be highly motivated for a victory today.  I'll side with them at a tremendous price against the lowly San Diego Padres as my National League Game of the Year.

Aaron Harang has been a huge addition to the Braves' rotation this year.  The right-hander has gone 9-6 with a 3.43 ERA over 22 starts this season.  Harang is also 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts.

Harang is 6-5 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.212 WHIP over 16 career starts against San Diego.  He has been dominant in his last two starts against the Padres, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA while pitching 14 1/3 shutout innings.

Atlanta is 12-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are 2-5 in Ross' last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 73-40 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997. Bet the Braves Sunday.

25* NL Blowout GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Braves -107

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following four consecutive losses to open this west coast swing.  That includes last night's 1-10 setback in Game 1 of this series at San Diego.  Without a doubt, they will be playing with an extra sense of urgency tonight.

Ervin Santana is having a fine season for Atlanta.  The right-hander has gone 10-6 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in his last three.  Santana is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in three career starts against San Diego.  He pitched eight shutout innings while striking out 11 in his last start against the Padres on July 28.

Ian Kennedy is having a solid season for San Diego as well, going 8-9 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.219 WHIP over 22 starts.  Kennedy has been at his worst at home, going 3-5 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 11 starts.  The right-hander sports a 3.79 ERA and 1.430 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta.

Atlanta is 22-6 (+15.5 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of its last 5 games over the last two seasons.  The Padres are 2-10 in Kennedy's last 12 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Braves are 5-1 in Santana's last six starts.  Bet the Braves Saturday.

20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -104

The Tampa Bay Rays just traded away David Price right before the deadline.  Manager Joe Maddon is going to have a tough sell to his players to try and convince them that the front office hasn't given up on them.  They barely got anything back in return and were clear sellers and losers at the deadline.

The Los Angeles Angels (64-43) have the second-best record in baseball and they are chasing down the Oakland A's for the top spot in the AL West.  They have the best lineup in baseball, but they also have an underrated rotation that has seen some bright seasons out of the unexpected.

One of those is Matt Shoemaker, who has gone 8-3 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 11 starts and six relief appearances this year.  Shoemaker has been at his best as a starter, going 7-2 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 11 starts.  He is also 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in his last three starts.  He allowed one run and five base runners over six innings in a 6-2 victory on May 18th in his lone career start against Tampa Bay.

Jeremy Hellickson has been forced into the rotation for a couple spot starts this year.  He has gone 0-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in two starts.   Hellickson was absolutely atrocious in 2013, going 12-10 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.351 WHIP over 31 starts.  That's why he didn't have a job secured in the rotation this year, but now with Price gone, he almost certainly will be forced into it.

The Angels are 9-0 (+9.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Angels are 44-14 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 26-10 in its last 36 overall.  The Angels are 9-3 in Shoemaker's last 12 starts.  The Rays are 1-6 in their last seven as a home underdog.  Tampa is 2-7 in Hellickson's last nine starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Angels Friday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +1.5 (-125)

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Both teams will be sending their aces to the mound in this one, and I look for this contest to have a high probability of being decided by one run either way, which is why I'm siding with the run line.

Julio Teheran is having an All-Star year, going 10-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.045 WHIP over 22 starts.  Sure, Clayton Kershaw has been even more dominant, but he is getting too much respect from the books here as a -200 favorite on the money line.

Kershaw is 1-0 in six career starts against Atlanta, only earning one decision.  Almost every game that he has started against the Braves has gone right down to the wire.  In fact, four of the six games were decided by exactly one run with the Dodgers winning two and the Braves winning two.

Kershaw is 9-23 against the run line (-14.7 Units) in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is 350-164 against the run line (+71.9 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997.  Kershaw is 26-54 against the run line (-28.8 Units) in home games in night games for his career.  Take the Braves on the run line.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -114

After losing the first two games of this series to the Baltimore Orioles, the Los Angeles Angels will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday to avoid the sweep.  You have to go all the way back to May 31 to June 2 to find the last time they lost three in a row.  That was also the last time they were swept in a series.

Tyler Skaggs has done a solid job this season in Los Angeles' rotation.  He has gone 5-5 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 17 starts.  Skaggs has been at his best away from home, going 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in eight road starts this year.

Bud Norris is having a similar season to Skaggs at 8-7 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 17 starts.  However, he is just 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in his last three starts.  While the Orioles have never faced Skaggs, the Angels just went up against Norris on July 21st, so they will have an advantage in this short turnaround.

Los Angeles is 25-10 in its last 35 games overall.  The Angels are 39-18 in their last 57 games as a favorite.  Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 in its last six during game 3 of a series.  The Angels are 10-4 in Skaggs' last 14 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Angels Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -139

The New York Yankees (55-51) get the call Wednesday against the lowly Texas Rangers (42-65) tonight.  New York still has a lot to play for as it sits 2.5 games out of the final wild card spot and 4.5 games out of first place in the AL East.  The same cannot be said for the Rangers, who have the worst record in all of baseball.

The Yankees have a huge edge on the mound in this one to boot.  Hiroki Kuroda has gone 7-6 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.204 WHIP over 21 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in his last three starts.  The right-hander has owned Texas, going 2-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in five career starts against the Rangers.

Colby Lewis may be the worst starter in the big leagues this season.  The right-hander has gone 6-8 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.794 WHIP in 18 starts, 1-5 with an 8.40 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in nine road starts, and 0-3 with a 10.54 ERA and 2.269 WHIP in his last three starts.  Lewis is also 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.430 WHIP in six career starts against New York.

The Yankees are 8-1 in their last nine games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  New York is 4-0 in Kuroda's last four starts as a favorite.  Texas is 14-39 in its last 53 games overall, including 7-20 in its last 27 home games.  The Rangers are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Texas is 3-24 in its last 27 games with a total set of 9.0-10.5.  The Rangers are 1-5 in Lewis' last six starts.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -133

The Tampa Bay Rays (52-54) have been the hottest team in baseball over the past couple months.  They have played themselves right back into the thick of the AL East race, and I look for them to add another win Tuesday night against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Alex Cobb has really turned it on as well.  He is now 6-6 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 15 starts this season after a slow start to the year.  Cobb has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, including two or less in five of those.  He is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts.

Matt Garza is having a solid season for Milwaukee as well at 7-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.183 WHIP over 21 starts.  However, he has really struggled on the road this year, going 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in nine road starts.  Garza faced his former team last year, giving up six runs and 10 base runners over 4 1/3 innings of a 2-6 loss at Tampa Bay on September 16.

Tampa Bay is 21-6 (+15.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Brewers are 15-39 in their last 54 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 21-6 in their last 27 games overall.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A's -1.5 (-118)

The Oakland A's are a good bet almost every time you take them.  You save juice on the run line, which has been a very profitable move of late for the best team in baseball.  The A's have won four of their last five all by two-plus runs to get to 65-39 on the season.

Now, they play one of the worst teams in baseball in the Houston Astros (42-63) for the start of a new series Monday.  The Astros have lost five straight all by two-plus runs.  I look for that streak to extend to six straight tonight in Game 1 of this series.

Jesse Chavez has been one of the better starters in the game this season.  He has gone 8-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.288 WHIP over 20 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three.  Chavez is 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against Houston.  The A's have won all three of his starts against the Astros all by two-plus runs.

Brett Oberholtzer is one of the worst starters in the game.  He has gone 2-7 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.416 WHIP over 13 starts this season.  He is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.515 WHIP over six home starts this year.  Oberholtzer is 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.567 WHIP over four career starts against Oakland.

Houston is 5-17 against the run line (-14.4 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  It is losing by an average of 4.1 runs/game in this spot.  The A's are 8-0 in Chavez's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -1.5 (-123)

The Oakland A's get the call on the -1.5 run line Sunday against the lowly Texas Rangers.  This is the best team in baseball, and they not only have a huge edge at the plate, but also on the mound tonight.

Scott Kazmir has gone 11-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.989 WHIP over 20 starts this season.  The left-hander continues to kill it, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 in his last three starts.

Miles Mikolas has had a rough go of it in the big leagues this year.  He has gone 1-2 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.524 WHIP over four starts.  Mikolas has been at his worst at home, going 0-2 with a 13.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two starts.

Kazmir is 31-8 (+15.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more since 1997.  Texas is 1-9 against the run line (-10.7 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  Kazmir is 6-0 against the run line (+6.8 Units) in road games after a win this season.  Kazmir is 15-4 against the run line (+14.4 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals +114

Any time the Chicago Cubs are listed as a favorite, it's usually a good idea to look to fade them.  I'll do just that Saturday and back the St. Louis Cardinals as an underdog in a game they should be favored in.

The Cardinals will be highly motivated following four straight losses heading into this one.  Shelby Miller hasn't been at his best this season, but he's undervalued because of it.  Miller dominated in his lone career start against the Cubs, pitching five shutout innings to get the win in a 5-2 St. Louis victory.

Jake Arrieta is having one heck of a season for Chicago, but he is also overvalued because of it.  The Cubs don't have a lot to play for right now, and that's a big reason why they should not be favored in this contest.

St. Louis is 31-6 (+24.2 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 24-8 (+12.8 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 Saturday games.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +125

The Miami Marlins are one of the most underrated teams in baseball at 48-53 on the season.  Any time the Houston Astros (42-60) are favored, it's a wise move to look to fade them.  They remain one of the worst teams in baseball this year despite the fact that they are slightly improved, which isn't saying much.

Brad Hand certainly isn't an elite pitcher, but he has thrown like one of late.  Hand has gone 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just five earned runs over 17 1/3 innings.  In his lone career starts against Houston, he pitched seven shutout innings while allowing five base runners in a 5-0 win.

Dallas Keuchel is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He is getting respect for his hot start to the season without factoring in what he has done of late.  Keuchel is 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 2.220 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has given up at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts overall.

The Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.  Miami is 5-1 in its last six interleague road games.  The Astros are 29-59 in their last 88 home games.  Houston is 18-42 in its last 60 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Astros are 1-5 in Kuechel's last six starts as a favorite.  Houston is 4-15 in Keuchel's last 19 starts when working on five days of rest.  Roll with the Marlins Friday.

20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +156

What's great about the San Diego Padres is that they never quit.  They are playing some of their best baseball of the season of late, and I look for that to continue to be the case tonight.  They have won four of their last five games overall while scoring a combined 21 runs in their last two contests.

While they are hot at the plate, the real reason I'm backing San Diego tonight is the price coupled with the edge it has on the mound.  Jesse Hahn is the real deal, going 5-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.057 WHIP over seven starts with 47 K's in 40 2/3 innings.  Hahn is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three road starts as well.

Alex Wood has certainly had a solid season, going 7-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.156 WHIP over 12 starts and 11 relief appearances.  However, he is being overvalued here, as are the Atlanta Braves.  Atlanta has lost three of its last four heading into this one.

The Padres are 5-1 in Hahn's last six starts overall.  The Padres are 4-0 in Hahn's last four starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  The Braves are 1-6 in Wood's last seven starts with four days of rest.  Atlanta is 1-4 in its last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  San Diego is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Atlanta.  Bet the Padres Friday.

20* Tigers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -113

The Detroit Tigers (56-42) and Los Angeles Angels (60-40) square off in a heavyweight showdown over the next four days.  I'm going to side with the home team Angels to take Game 1 of this series due to the way they have been playing of late and their edge on the mound.

Garrett Richards might be the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 11-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.028 WHIP over 20 starts, including 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.806 WHIP in his last three starts.  Max Scherzer (11-3, 3.34 ERA) has been dominant as well, but he is being overvalued here.

If Richards' numbers this season aren't enough to sway you, then his performances against Detroit will be.  Indeed, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in two career starts against the Tigers.  Richards has pitched 14 scoreless innings while allowing nine base runners in those two starts against Detroit.

The Angels are 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games against AL Central opponents this season.  Richards is 13-1 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Los Angeles is 23-6 in Richards' last 29 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Angels Thursday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +104

I have been a big supporter of the Tampa Bay Rays this season ever since manager Joe Maddon declared that his team really believes they could come back and win the AL East.  They are doing their part, currently entering this game on a six-game winning streak that I believe will extend to seven after tonight.

The offense has come alive as the Rays have scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games overall.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, have scored four or fewer runs in each of their last five games.  Tampa has held each of its last six opponents to three runs or fewer.

Alex Cobb is having a solid season for Tampa Bay, going 5-6 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.249 WHIP over 14 starts.  He is 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  This guy dominated the big leagues the previous two seasons, and I only look for him to get stronger as the season goes on.

Lance Lynn is very fortunate to be 11-6 with a 3.13 ERA on the season.  That is evidenced by his 1.309 WHIP, which is considered average to below average in the big leagues.  He walks too many batters, and the Rays are a very patient team that will capitalize on it tonight.

The Rays have been road warriors of late, going a sensational 14-2 in their last 16 road games.  Tampa Bay is 4-0 in Cobb's last four road starts.  Cobb is 12-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last five interleague starts.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-105)

The Washington Nationals are in a battle with the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East.  They have won three straight and five of their last six to pull one game ahead of the Braves.  They are really hitting on all cylinders right now.

The Colorado Rockies are tied with the Texas Rangers for the worst record in baseball at 40-59.  They have lost six in a row and really seem to have packed it in.  Guys aren't willing to play through injury right now.  They are without Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, and they could be without fellow starters Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon tonight, who are both listed as questionable.

Jordan Zimmerman takes the ball for the Nationals.  The right-hander is having another brilliant season, going 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.212 WHIP over 19 starts.  Zimmerman is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in seven career starts against Colorado.

Yohan Flande is off to a rough start in limited action for the Rockies.  The left-hander is 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in three starts this season, yielding 12 earned runs and 25 base runners over 14 2/3 innings.  One of those starts came against Washington on June 30 as he allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings of a 3-7 loss.

Colorado is 23-43 against the run line (-26.3 Units) in July games over the last three seasons.  Zimmerman is 14-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Nationals are winning 5.9 to 2.1 on average in this spot.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -142

The Colorado Rockies have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the past couple of months.  They have lost five straight to fall to 40-58 on the season.  They are without two of their best players in Troy Tulowitzki and Michael Cuddyer, while fellow starters Charlie Blackmon and Justin Morneau are questionable to play tonight.

Washington (53-43) is neck-and-neck with Atlanta (54-44) for first place in the NL East and has plenty to play for.  Doug Fister has proven to be an excellent addition to the rotation this year, going 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.069 WHIP over 12 starts.  The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two career starts against Colorado.

Pitching has been Colorado's downfall this year, and I look for that to continue to be the case tonight.  Franklin Morales has gone 5-4 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.523 WHIP over 13 starts and nine relief appearances this season.  He is 4-4 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.535 WHIP as a starter.

Colorado is 11-30 (-19.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.  The Nationals are 53-24 in their last 77 games as a road favorite.  Washington is 9-2 in Fister's last 11 starts.  The Rockies are 14-38 in their last 52 overall.  Colorado is 6-27 in its last 33 games following a loss.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +119

The Cincinnati Reds (51-47) are in 4th place in the NL Central, but they could be in first place by week's end.  That's because they are only 2.5 games behind both the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals for first.  This is a big series for them, and I look for them to take Game 1 tonight against the Brewers due to their edge on the mound.

When healthy, Mat Latos has been dominant in the big leagues.  That has been the case this year as well as he has gone 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.802 WHIP in six starts, including 1-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.450 WHIP in three road starts.  Latos is 3-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.  In two starts against the Brewers this year, he has allowed two earned runs and seven base runners over 14 innings.

Good pitching has helped Milwaukee hold on to first place in the NL Central for much of the season.  However, Wily Peralta has not been a big part of that.  He has gone 10-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.289 WHIP over 19 starts this year, 5-4 with a 4.17 ERA in 10 home starts, and 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three outings.  While he has been decent, he's certainly no match for Latos.

The Brewers are just 3-13 in their last 16 games overall.  The Reds are 43-21 in Latos' last 64 starts overall.  Milwaukee is 1-7 in its last seven home games.  The Brewers are 0-4 in Peraltas last four starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Reds Monday.

20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +162

The Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A's have a rivalry now after getting into a brawl earlier this season.  After blowout a save in Game 1, the Orioles came back with an 8-4 victory yesterday.  I look for them to win this series and take Game 3 Sunday at an excellent price.

Baltimore will be giving the ball to Kevin Gausman, who is 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.1252 WHIP over seven starts this year.  Two of those starts came on the road, where is is 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 1.059 WHIP.

Sonny Gray is having a tremendous season for Oakland with a 2.79 ERA over 19 starts, but he is also overvalued as a result.  Plus, Gray is 0-2 with an 11.43 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore.  Meanwhile, Gausman is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in one career start against Oakland.

The Orioles are 11-4 in their last 15 games overall.  Baltimore is 4-0 in its last four during Game 3 of a series.  The Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  Bet Baltimore Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles +133

The Baltimore Orioles suffered a painful loss last night as they were leading 4-2 before giving up three runs in the bottom of the 9th to lose 5-4.  I believe they redeem themselves at an excellent price in Game 2 of this series against the Oakland A's Saturday.

Wei-Yin Chen has been one of the more underrated starters in the game over the past few seasons.  He has gone 9-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.308 WHIP over 18 starts.  Chen is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP over four career starts against Oakland.

Jason Hammel has gone 8-6 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 18 starts this year.  He has overachieved to this point, and the A's traded for him as a result.  I look for him to have a poor second half in the AL.  Also, Hammel is 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six career starts against Baltimore.

The Orioles are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss.  Baltimore is 16-6 in Chen's last 22 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Chen is 27-14 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Bet the Orioles Saturday.

20* AL Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles +153

The Baltimore Orioles are quietly having a great season.  They finished the first half 52-42 and currently lead the AL East by four games.  I look for them to continue their solid play in their first game out of the break and to beat the Oakland A's tonight.

Oakland is overvalued right now due to having the best record in baseball at 59-36.  It will come out of the break overconfident.  Jeff Samardzija is having a fine season, but he's also getting too much respect from the books here.

Chris Tillman is better than he is getting credit for.  The right-hander has gone 7-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 20 starts this season, and he hasn't lost a decision on the road, going 6-0.  Better yet, Tillman is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three career starts against Oakland, two of which came last year.

Tillman is 7-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.  Tillman is 7-0 (+9.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 20-6 in Tillman's last 26 starts as a road underdog.  Baltimore is 10-1 in Tillman's last 11 Friday starts.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -139

The Atlanta Braves had lost five of six prior to Saturday's 11-6 victory over the Chicago Cubs.  I look for them to go into the All-Star Break with some momentum by taking Game 3 and this series as they come in highly motivated to do so.

Julio Teheran is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, but that is only a small blip on what has been a fantastic season for the right-hander.  Indeed, Teheran is an All-Star due to his 8-6 record, 2.58 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 19 starts this year.  He is 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago.

The Braves are a perfect 3-0 in Teheran's three career starts against the Cubs.  He'll be up against Travis Wood, who is 7-7 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  The left-hander has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 2.106 WHIP in his last three starts.

Wood is 5-18 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season for his career.  The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.  Atlanta is 16-5 in Teheran's last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Chicago is 12-32 in its last 44 during game 3 of a series.  The Cubs are 26-54 in their last 80 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Chicago is 5-21 in its last 26 games with a total set of 6.5 or lower, including 0-6 in its last six home games with a total set of 6.5 or lower.  The Cubs are 1-6 in their last seven games as an underdog.  Chicago is 9-27 in Wood's last 36 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Sunday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -117

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Detroit Tigers.  I like their chances of getting Game 3 behind their ace on the mound.

James Shields is 9-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He pitched seven shutout innings while striking out 10 batters in his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Royals are 42-19 in their last 61 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Kansas City is 21-7 in Shields' last 28 starts with 4 days of rest.  The Royals are 30-12 in Shields' last 42 starts overall.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals +126

Joe Kelly just does not seem to get the same respect as the rest of the St. Louis starters despite getting the job done almost every time he takes the mound.  He'll be up against a Milwaukee team that has lost nine of its last 10 games overall, and I like his chances of shutting the Brewers down tonight.

Kelly has been dominant in three starts this season, going 1-1 with a minuscule 0.59 ERA while allowing just one earned run over 15 1/3 innings.  Kelly has posted a 3.47 ERA in six career starts against the Brewers as well.  He is 16-13 with a 2.92 ERA in his three-year career in the big leagues with the Cardinals.

Yovani Gallardo got off to a hot start this season, but he has come back down to reality, going 5-5 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 18 starts in 2014. Gallardo fears facing St. Louis.  The right-hander is 1-12 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Cardinals.

St. Louis is 76-39 (+28.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 9-1 in Kelly's last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Brewers are 3-13 in Gallardo's last 16 starts vs. St. Louis, including 0-7 in his last seven starts against the Cardinals.  St. Louis is 36-17 in the last 53 meetings in this series.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +110

The Miami Marlins have been one of the most underrated teams in the big leagues this season.  They have compiled a 44-47 record to this point, and they should not be an underdog in Game 1 of this series with New York (42-50) with the edge they have on the mound.

Henderson Alvarez is having a tremendous season, going 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in 18 starts.  He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Alvarez owns New York, going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in six career starts against the Mets.

Zack Wheeler has been decent for New York, but he isn't on the same level as Alvarez.  The right-hander is 4-8 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in 18 starts this season, 1-4 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in seven home starts, and 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in his last three outings overall.

Alvarez is 8-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line after giving up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings this season.  The Mets are 4-28 (-27.2 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last two seasons.  The Marlins are 7-0 in Alvarez's last 7 starts as an underdog.  Miami is 7-0 in Alvarez's last seven starts vs. NL East opponents.  Roll with the Marlins Friday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -121

The Los Angeles Angels are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They have won six of their last seven games overall to get to 53-37 on the season.  The Texas Rangers are one of the worst teams in baseball.  They have lost 10 of their last 11 to fall to 38-53 on the year.

I look for the Angels to continue their momentum with Matt Shoemaker on the mound.  The right-hander has gone 7-2 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.334 WHIP over nine starts and six relief appearances in 2014.  He faced Texas on June 22nd, allowing just one earned run over 7 2/3 innings to get the victory in a 5-2 Los Angeles triumph.

Colby Lewis is clearly one of the worst starters in baseball and now goes up against one of the best lineups in the MLB.  Lewis has gone 6-5 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.711 WHIP in eight home starts.

The Rangers are 1-10 (-8.9 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 this season.  Texas is 0-8 in its last eight vs. AL West opponents.  Los Angeles is 7-0 in its last seven vs. AL West foes.  The Rangers are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  These three trends combine for a 32-1 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +103

Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals should not be an underdog today against the Baltimore Orioles.  The Nationals' lineup is back to full strength, and it's really paying off as evidenced by the fact that they have won eight of their last 10 games overall.

Gonzalez is having yet another great year in Washington, going 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 13 starts.  The left-hander has been untouchable of late, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has pitched 21 shutout innings during this stretch.

Wei-Yin Chen is no match for Gonzalez.  The left-hander has gone 8-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three.  Chen is 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA and 2.036 WHIP in two career starts against Washington, yielding eight earned runs, three homers and 19 base runners over 9 1/3 innings.

Washington is hitting .280 and scoring 4.7 runs/game against southpaws this season, while Baltimore is hitting .261 and scoring 4.0 runs/game versus lefties.  Gonzalez is 27-8 (+17.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less/game over the last two seasons.  Washington is 27-12 in Gonzalez's last 39 road starts.  Roll with the Nationals Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Giants +112

The San Francisco Giants lost the first two games of this series with Oakland.  They got a little bit of revenge yesterday with a 5-2 victory, and now I expect them to even the series by continuing their dominance at home in this in-state interleague rivalry.

Getting Tim Hudson as a home underdog is an absolute gift from oddsmakers here.  The veteran right-hander has gone 7-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Hudson is 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in nine home starts this year as well.

Scott Kazmir is having an equally fine season for the A's.  However, the left-hander has been at his worst on the road, going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.  He has also struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 home meetings with the A's.  San Francisco is 9-1 in its last 10 during Game 4 of a series.  The Giants are 38-16 in their last 54 interleague home games.  The A's are 17-42 in their last 59 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oakland is 0-4 in its last four road games.  Take the Giants Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants +110

After losing the first two games of this series in Oakland, the San Francisco Giants return home highly motivated as they face the A's in two games at AT&T Park over the next two days.  In fact, they have five straight at home before the All-Star Break and want to go into it with some momentum.

Oakland is being overvalued here due to its six-game winning streak.  It traded for Jason Hammel, and he'll be making his first start in an A's uniform tonight.  I'll gladly fade him here as there is no question he has overachieved in the first half of the season with the Cubs.

Matt Cain is still one of the better starters in the game despite his shaky start this season.  He has been at his best at home, posting a 3.73 ERA and 1.073 WHIP over six starts.  Cain has dominated Oakland in his career, posting a 2.11 ERA and 0.922 WHIP in 10 starts against the A's.  In fact, he has allowed just four earned runs over 38 innings in his last five starts against them for a minuscule 0.95 ERA.

The A's are 17-41 in their last 58 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 26-8 in their last 34 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.  San Francisco is 37-16 in its last 53 interleague home games.  The A's are 2-12 in their last 14 meetings in San Francisco.  Bet the Giants Wednesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -115

We are getting the St. Louis Cardinals at an excellent price tonight.  Rarely will you get to back them at home as this short of a favorite, but oddsmakers have given us a gift here Tuesday that we will gladly take advantage of.

Vance Worley is getting way too much respect from the books due to his 2.28 ERA over four starts this season.  This small sample size has come against four of the worst lineups in baseball in the Marlins, Cubs, Mets and Diamondbacks.  Remember, Worley went 1-5 with a 7.21 ERA in 10 starts for the Twins last year, so he's not just all of a sudden one of the best starters in the league.

Carlos Martinez is not getting enough credit for the job he has done this season, mainly because he is considered one of the worst starters in what is a dominant St. Louis rotation.  However, he has posted a 3.91 ERA in 53 innings this year.  As a starter, Martinez has gone 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in four starts.

St. Louis is 40-16 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 134-277 in their last 411 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Cardinals are 65-27 in their last 92 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  St. Louis is 4-0 in Martinez's last four starts.  The Cardinals are 72-34 in their last 106 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take St. Louis Tuesday.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -110

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Justin Verlander at this kind of price at home.  The right-hander struggled quite a bit in the early going, which has him undervalued right now.  He turned it on in the second half last year, and he appears to be doing the same in 2014.

Indeed, Verlander has gone 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has given up just six earned runs and 21 base runners over 19 innings while striking out 20 batters during this span.  He'll be motivated to help his team put an end to a three-game losing streak heading into tonight's contest.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is certainly having a solid season thus far, going 9-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 16 starts.  However, he doesn't face nearly as many potent lineups in the National League as the one he will see tonight.  Detroit has one of the best lineups in baseball, and I expect it to be a struggle for Ryu.

Los Angeles is 1-8 (-9.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons.  Verlander is 16-2 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season in his career.

The Dodgers are 27-55 in their last 82 interleague road games.  Los Angeles is 26-58 in its last 84 interleague games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 57-19 in their last 76 interleague home games.  Detroit is 21-6 in Verlander's last 27 interleague starts.  The Tigers are 22-6 in their last 28 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet Detroit Tuesday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -106

At 43-45 on the season, the Miami Marlins won't be limping into the All-Star Break.  Instead, they want to use this final week before the break to try and get back above .500, and it starts with this series against Arizona.  The Diamondbacks (37-53) cannot wait for the break to get here and likely won't be motivated at all over this final week.

Miami has the edge on the mound in this one behind Tom Koehler, who is 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 17 starts.  The right-hander is 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last three starts.  Koehler has faced the Diamondbacks once, which came last year as he allowed just one earned run and five base runners over six innings.

Chase Anderson is one of the many Arizona starters who have struggled this year.  He has gone 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in nine starts.  Anderson is 3-2 with a 4.45 ERA in five home starts, and 0-3 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in his last three outings overall.

The Diamondbacks are 16-33 in their last 49 home games.  Arizona is 13-29 in its last 42 during game 1 of a series.  The Diamondbacks are 10-27 in their last 37 Monday games.  Arizona is 1-8 in its last nine games following a win.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Anderson's last four starts.  Bet the Marlins Monday.

20* Rays/Tigers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -117

The Tampa Bay Rays have really stepped it up of late and believe that they can come back and win the AL East.  They have won seven of their last eight games overall, and they send their ace to the mound tonight to make it eight of nine.

Price is 7-7 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 18 starts this season, which including an MLB-leading 153 strikeouts.  He has gone 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in eight road starts.  The left-hander has really turned it on of late, going 2-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in his last three starts.

What really stands out to me is how dominant Price has been against tonight's opponent.  Indeed, the left-hander is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in five career starts against Detroit.  You won't find many starters who shut down this lineup as consistently as Price.

Price is 15-2 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last three seasons.  The Rays are 25-6 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in July games over the last two seasons.  The Rays are 39-17 in Price's last 56 starts as a road favorite.  Tampa Bay is 7-1 in its last eight road games.  Bet the Rays Sunday.