15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.

The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season.  They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix.  This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.  They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago in the opener.

Now they take on a Cleveland Cavaliers team with injury problems in the early going.  The Cavaliers are without C Jarrett Allen, which really hurts them defensively.  They could also be without PG Darius Garland, who is nursing a hamstring injury.  They should not be 3.5-point favorites over the Thunder without these two.  They escaped with a 114-113 win at Brooklyn in the opener, but won't be as fortunate tonight as they take a big step up in class against OKC.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* FAU/Charlotte ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Charlotte +4.5

I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country.  His players absolutely love him and will go to war for him.  The 49ers are just 2-5 this season, but they have impressed me against some very good competition.  They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.

Last week, I was on Charlotte +7.5 at East Carolina and they delivered the outright upset in a 10-7 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated.  They outgained ECU 325 to 127, or by 198 total yards.  They should have won by more, but they were -2 in turnovers and conditions were tough.  Clearly, their defense is better than it gets credit for.

Now the 49ers play another struggling offense in the Florida Atlantic Owls.  FAU is just 3-4 SU this season with the three wins coming against bottom feeders in FCS Monmouth, Tulsa and South Florida.  Last week, FAU lost 36-10 at home to UTSA.  The Owls have now been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games overall.  It's tough to trust them to lay any kind of number on the road with that putrid of an offense.  It won't get any easier this week against a Charlotte defense that is allowing just 22.7 points per game this season despite playing a tougher schedule than FAU, which allows 25.0 points per game.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Charlotte Friday.

20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Phoenix Suns are going to be without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal tonight.  They can't afford to lose these two, especially Booker, with their lack of depth and talent.  They're relying on Kevin Durant and a bunch of replacement-level players tonight.

Booker went 13-of-21 for 32 points and 8 assists to lead the Suns to a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State on opening night.  The rest of the Suns went 29-of-74 (39.2%) from the field in that game, so he is going to be desperately missed.

The Lakers should fire back here after giving the Denver Nuggets a run for their money on the road only to fall short in the 4th quarter.  They are back home here where they have been dominant dating back to the end of last season.  The Lakers are 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 home games.

I love the additions of Vincent, Prince, Reddish and Wood to go along with all five returning starters for the Lakers, though Jared Vanderbilt remains out in the early going.  Their great depth plus the lack of depth for the Suns right now will be the key to them winning this one handily.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Suns.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

20* Bucs/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 43

The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White.  They are also without LB Braylon Spector, and DT Ed Oliver is questionable.  Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys in that Jacksonville game three weeks ago.

The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London.  They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line.  And then last week a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills.

Now a dormant Tampa Bay offense should get on track against this Buffalo defense.  The Bucs are very healthy on offense and get RB Chase Edmonds back on the field.  Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice Thursday, as was WR Chris Godwin.  Mayfield and company are in line for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season here.

The Bucs have a good defense, but they have faced a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  They are going to be without S Kevon Merriweather after he was injured against the Falcons last week.  They could be without their big run stuffer insider in Vita Vea, who is battling a groin injury and is questionable.

What I know for certain is the Bills are going to be able to move the football and score points on this overrated Tampa Bay defense.  The Bucs gave up 472 total yards to the Eagles, 380 total yards to the Lions and 401 total yards to the Falcons in three of their last four games coming in.  The Falcons fumbled twice from the 1 and once from the 11 to basically take 14-21 points off the board last week and try to give the game away.  The Bills will be able to move the football and hang a big number on this Tampa Bay defense.  The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 71.43%.

Mayfield and this Tampa Bay offense are going to try and have to keep pace.  The weather looks good for a shootout in Buffalo Thursday night with temps in the 60's, only a 4% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds.  This is about as perfect as weather gets in Buffalo this time of year.

Plays on the OVER involving road teams like Tampa Bay that have a poor offense averaging 14-18 PPG against a good defense (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983.  This total has been suppressed due to Tampa's poor offensive numbers to this point and Buffalo's misleading defensive numbers.  Both of these defenses are vulnerable right now due to injury and that will show tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2.5

These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet.  Virginia Tech is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers.  Virginia Tech needs to be more than a 2.5-point home favorite over Syracuse Thursday night.

Virginia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards.  The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.  And last time out the Hokies crushed Wake Forest 30-13 and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards.

Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road.  They have stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces.  They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina and 41-3 at Florida State.  The Orange were outscored a combined 112-24 in those three defeats.  That 38-point loss at Florida State gives these teams a recent common opponent to compare where they're at right now.  The Orange were outgained 537 to 261, or by 276 total yards while VT only lost by 22 and were outgained by 139 yards.

The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback.  Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies.  Drones is completing 58% of his passes for 1,042 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 344 yards and 4 scores.  His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.

Syracuse is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Dino Babers is 1-9 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of consecutive games as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Grizzlies UNDER 227.5

JA Morant has to serve a 25-game suspension to start the season.  The Memphis Grizzlies are going to have to rely on defense in the early going to be competitive.  That's why they traded for Marcus Smart, one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA who can mask some of the defensive deficiencies of Morant when he returns.  But they gave up great backup Tyus Jones and two first-round picks to get the former Defensive Player of the Year.

The Grizzlies have been a Top 5 defense each of the last two seasons.  They were No. 3 in defensive rating last season despite the injuries and suspensions.  They hang their hat on defense.  Starters Ziaire Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman Sr. are all plus defenders.  Desmond Bane is their only real scorer, but most his points come off the ball spotting up.  Scoring is going to be tough for this team in the early going.

The Pelicans have a great starting 5 of McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, Valanciunas and Jones.  But they will be without key bench players Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Naji Marshall to start the season.  That means the bench will consist of Cody Zeller, Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels to start the season.  The Pelicans are going to struggle to score for long stretches when their starters are out.

New Orleans is 41-25 UNDER in its last 66 games as a road underdog, including 27-11 UNDER in its last 38 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9

A shin injury ended Cade Cunningham's season after 12 games last year and pretty much ended their season.  He comes back healthy this season, and he and Jaden Ivey form one of the most underrated backcourt duos in the NBA.  I think the Pistons come into the season undervalued as a result.  They have great depth with Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman coming off the bench.

The Miami Heat were terrible in the regular season last year and barely made the playoffs, needing the play-in round to get through.  They would go on a crazy run to the NBA Finals behind Jimmy Butler's heroics.  But regular season Jimmy is much different than playoff Jimmy.  I think there will be a hangover effect early in the season for the Heat after coming up just short, losing to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.

It was a tough offseason for the Heat, who struck out on Damian Lillard and watched key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus go elsewhere.  They will get Tyler Herro back from a broken wrist, but depth is going to be an issue, especially with Josh Richardson out to start the season.  They are going to be relying on Kevin Love, Thomas Bryant , Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and Nikoa Jovic.  This is one of the worst benches in the NBA, plus starting PG Kyle Lowry isn't getting any younger and declining rapidly.

Miami is 22-39 ATS in its last 61 games as a favorite.  The Heat are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER 234.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray in the backcourt.  These two should gel much better than they did last year when Quin Snyder took over midseason.  Now Snyder has an entire offseason to get things right after a middling 41-41 season a year ago.

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team when LaMelo Ball is on the court.  He averaged 23.3 points, 8.4 assists and 6.4 rebounds last season but played in just 36 games.  Terry Rozier, PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward can all fill it up as well, plus they used the 2nd pick in the draft on scorer Brandon Miller out of Alabama.  Head coach Steve Clifford said they spent a lot more time on offense than defense the past few weeks.

In four meetings last season, the Hornets and Hawks combined for 282, 240, 235 and 231 points.  They have combined for at least 235 points in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers OVER 234.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle, who is a great offensive mind but chooses offense over defense everywhere he has gone.  The Pacers are loaded from an offensive standpoint with Tyrese Haliburton teaming with Bennedict Mathurin in the backcourt.  They added Denver 6th man Bruce Brown who will start right away.  They also added Obi Toppin from the Knicks to pair with Myles Turner in the frontcourt.  One of the best shooters in the NBA in Buddy Hield comes off the bench.

The Washington Wizards are all offense and no defense.  They added PG Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and SG Jordan Poole from the Wizards, who are both terrible defenders.  They still have Kyle Kuzma, one of the worst defenders in the league but a good scorer.  SF Bilal Coulibaly will start right away and be paired with Daniel Gafford in the frontcourt.  They have shooters who can stretch the floor coming off the bench in Mike Muscala, Danilo Gallinari, Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert.  This is going to be a fun team to watch offensively, but probably the worst defensive team in the entire NBA.

The Wizards and Pacers went for 240, 232 and 244 combined points in their final three meetings last season.  It should be more of the same here in the opener as we see one of the highest scoring games of the night.  Carlisle is 50-32 OVER in home games as the coach of Indiana.  The OVER is 34-18 in Pacers last 52 home games with a total of 230 or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Jacksonville State/FIU C-USA No-Brainer on Florida International +8

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are in their first season as an FBS team making the move from the FCS.  They just accomplished a huge feat getting to 6-2 with a 20-17 upset win over Western Kentucky last week to get bowl eligible.  Now, I think the Gamecocks are in a huge letdown spot after accomplishing that feat and will be flat as a pancake Wednesday night against Florida International.

This is a very tough spot for the Gamecocks because of the letdown spot, plus the fact that they are a very tired team playing their 6th game in 33 days.  They have had a ton of midweek games this year to throw off their schedule, especially of late.  Meanwhile, Florida International will be playing just its 4th game in 32 days, a huge rest advantage for the home team.

Florida International sits at 4-4 this season and in need of a win here if they want to get bowl eligible themselves.  The Panthers have the big motivational and rest advantages that justify a play on them catching 8 points at home here.  Bet Florida International Wednesday.

25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Phillies -160

The Philadelphia Phillies just lost at home in the playoffs for the first time all postseason.  I expect them to right the ship and win Game 7 here at home against a rookie starter in Brandon Pfaadt for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Pfaadt is 3-9 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 21 starts thsi season.  He has been fortunate to start at home in his last two postseason starts.  But in his lone postseason start on the road, he allowed 3 runs and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings to the Brewers.  Pfaadt won't be able to handle the pressure of trying to win a Game 7 on the road.

I trust Ranger Suarez to get the job done here for the Phillies.  He is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three starts this postseason, allowing just one earned run and 9 base runners in 14 innings to the Braves (twice) and Diamondbacks.  Suarez has pitched 12 1/3 shutout innings while allowing just 10 base runners with 14 K's in his last two starts against Arizona this season.

The Phillies are 8-1 in Suarez's nine playoff starts over the past two seasons.  Philadelphia is 9-0 in Suarez's last nine home starts vs. a NL team with a .255 batting average or worse in the second half of the season.  Bet the Phillies in Game 7 Tuesday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets 2023 NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles +6

The Los Angeles Lakers were swept by the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs last year.  But all four games went down to the wire with three decided by 6 points or less, including both meetings in Denver.  The Lakers will be out for revenge on the Nuggets, and I like their chances of staying within this inflated number.

There's usually a championship hangover early in the season for teams that win the NBA Finals.  They just don't come back as motivated to start the next season, and it's very tough to repeat.  I think the Nuggets will be going through the motions early in the season.

"If anybody is still talking about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them." said Denver head coach Michael Malone in June.  "The've gone fishing. We're still playing.".  The comment angered LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

"It was just a lot of talking," Davis said on media day earlier this month. "We get it, y'all won, but me and Bron had some conversations.  We can't wait to play them."

"I go play every game the way I'm going to pgo play the first game against them," Lakers guard Austin Reaves said. "But I think it adds a little bit of motivation to go play really well."

The Nuggets lost key 6th man Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason.  The Lakers added Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince to a very experienced roster.  I like the moves the Lakers made to get better, and I think the Nuggets are down a notch from last year after losing Brown especially.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* New Mexico State/LA Tech C-USA ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico State +2.5

New Mexico State has aspirations of getting bowl eligible with a win tonight.  They also are very much alive in the Conference USA title race.  They have a bye one deck, so they will be 'all in' to get this win tonight and get bowl eligible.

Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 61.9% of his passes for 1,801 yards with a 16-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  Pavia also leads the Aggies in rushing with 525 yards and 4 TD on 5.8 per carry.  From October-on last year, he had the best QBR of any QB in the country.  He is doing the same from October-on this year.

This New Mexico State defense is also underrated.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being to Liberty, which is 7-0 and the best team in the conference.  I think they can shut town this LA Tech offense that has put up 24 or fewer points in five of eight games this year.  They topped that number against Northwestern State, North Texas and WKU only because of garbage time after falling behind 35-7 early.

LA Tech has allowed 28 or more points in four of their last five games.  The Bulldogs have a terrible defense and have gone 1-4 in their last five games with their lone win against a broken UTEP team that New Mexico State just blasted 28-7 last week.  LA Tech was actually outgained by UTEP in that contest.

The Aggies are going to have a big advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 202 yards per game and 6.1 per carry as a team.  LA Tech allows 199 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine October games.  The Aggies are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Jerry Kill is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a losing record as a head coach.  Bet New Mexico State Tuesday.

20* 49ers/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +7

The Minnesota Vikings are kings of playing on one-score games.  Dating back to the start of last season, the Vikings have played in one-score games in 20 of 24 games.  All six of their games this season have been decided by a single score.  Given that fact, getting +7 on the Vikings at home here is a nice value.

The 49ers have some injuries they are dealing with right now that won't have them at full strength, and as a result they won't be hitting on all cylinders.  Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey all got hurt against the Browns last week and were knocked out of the game.  The 49ers lost that game and Brock Purdy had by far his worst game of the season.

Purdy went 12-of-27 passing for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss to the Browns last week.  Both Samuel and Williams will miss this game, which are two huge blows to this offense.  McCaffrey is expected to play through an oblique injury, but he'll likely be on a pitch count and there's no assurance he will make it through the entire game.

The Vikings saved their season last week by going on the road and beating the Bears 19-13.  This came a week after they nearly upset the Chiefs at home, holding Kansas City to 333 total yards in a 27-20 defeat.  They were only outgained by 4 yards by the Chiefs and didn't have Justin Jefferson for the majority of that game.  If they can hang with the Chiefs, they can hang with the 49ers.

Brian Flores is doing a good job at defensive coordinator making the right adjustments after a poor start to the season.  He was too blitz-happy early in the season and has toned it down a lot of late.  The Vikings have held their last three opponents to an average of 17.7 points per game, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Their defense can keep them in this game, and Kirk Cousins and company have another week to get the chemistry right without Jefferson as he gels with Addison, Hockenson and Osborn.  Cousins is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.

Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

20* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -170

The Phillies are up 3-2 in this series over the Arizona Diamondbacks while outscoring them 27-12 in the process.  Both losses came by a single run, while the three wins came by a combined 17 runs.  The Phillies have only lost three times all postseason with all three losses coming by one run.  All eight wins have come by two runs or more as they are outscoring opponents 5.3 to 2.0 on average.

The Phillies have another big advantage on the mound in Game 6 and I expect them to close out this series.  Aaron Nola is 9-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 17 home starts this season.  Nola is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in three postseason starts.  He pitched 6 shutout innings in a 10-0 victory over the Phillies in Game 2.

Merrill Kelly has been at his worst on ther oad this season with a 3.94 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 17 starts away from home.  Kelly is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts against Philadelphia, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 2/3 innings.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings in that 10-0 loss to the Phillies in Game 2 opposite Nola.

The Phillies are 38-13 in their last 51 games as home favorites of -150 to -200.  Bet the Phillies in Game 6 Monday.

15* Dolphins/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia ML -130

I love the spot for the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night.  They are coming off their first loss of the season to the New York Jets in a game they basically gave away.  They will respond in a big way, and they will be fully focused with the hype-train Miami Dolphins coming to town Sunday night.  They want to destroy this hype train.

Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions and the Eagles turned it over four times to give the game to the Jets last week.  Keep in mind the Jets have held the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles in check, so they have an elite defense and have a way of slowing down some of the top quarterbacks in the league.  The Dolphins haven't had to face them yet, but they will have similar issues when they do.

The Eagles have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 97 yards per game.  They have great ball control averaging nearly 35 minutes of time of possession.  They rush for 150 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Their ground game and ability to play keep away from the Dolphins is going to be a big key to victory here.

That's especially the case when you look at the forecast.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Philadelphia Sunday night.  That's going to keep Miami's downfield passing game in check, and the team that runs the football better is going to have a big advantage.  That team is Philadelphia.

This reminds me a lot of the Miami at Buffalo game a few weeks ago.  Buffalo's defense was healthy at that point and could get pressure by rushing four and not blitzing.  Buffalo won that game 48-20 to not only expose this Miami offense, but expose this Miami defense as well.  Philadelphia can get pressure rushing four and dropping seven without blitzing as well.  They have one of the best defensive lines in football, and they are expected to get back both Jalen Carter and Darius Slay this week, who they didn't have against the Jets.  They led the NFL in sacks last year and are one of the best pressure defensive lines in the NFL again this season.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Eagles off that upset loss, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after back-to-back wins and covers against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Giants and Panthers.  They only beat the Giants by 15 as 12.5-point favorites and needed a late TD to cover as 14-point favorites against the Panthers.  This is a huge step up in class for the Dolphins, who were playing in perfect conditions at home in those two games and now have to hit the road for the first time since that 28-point loss at Buffalo and deal with the elements in Philadelphia.  Bet the Eagles on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Broncos OVER 44.5

I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers this week.  They are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses.  They needed the bye week to regroup and get healthy.  Now they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season.

Jordan Love has been getting a ton of criticism, and most of it is deserved.  However, Love has had his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time for a grand total of 11 snaps this season.  Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week and should be 100% coming off the bye, and Watson is back to 100% as well.

The Packers are in line for their best offensive output of the season since their 38-20 season-opening win at Chicago.  The Bears and Broncos have been neck-and-neck for worst defense in the league honors this season.  The Broncos take the take, allowing 33.3 points per game, 440 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season.

The Broncos have at least been competent on offense this season scoring 21.5 points per game.  They have scored at least 20 points in four of their last five games including 33 against Washington and 31 against Chicago.  The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in all four OVERS.  The lone exception came against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Chiefs, plus there was 20 MPH winds and tough playing conditions.  The Broncos should hang a big number on the Packers as well.

Green Bay is without its most important defender in LB De'Vondre Campbell.  The Packers have also benefited from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Bears, Falcons, Saints and Raiders.  The only quality offense they faced they gave up 34 points and 401 total yards to the Lions.

The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 70's and only 8 MPH winds Sunday in Denver.  Sean Payton is a dead nuts OVER head coach with great offenses but terrible defenses dating back to his time in New Orleans.  Matt LaFleur is 8-1 OVER in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Green Bay.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7.5

Note: I love 6-point teasers with the Seahawks -1.5 this week. My favorite teaser partner for them is Colts +8, but other good options are Giants +8 & Falcons +8.5.

The Seattle Seahawks are pissed off coming into this one so they won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly. They returned from their bye week and blew their game on the road at Cincinnati in one of the most misleading finals in the NFL.   They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards.  They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play.

The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points.  They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line.  That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling.  I expect their offense to right the ship this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games.  In the lone game they didn't allow at least 26, the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone against them and still had 416 total yards.  Arizona allows 27.0 points per game, 377 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season.

Seattle's defense is one of the more underrated units in the league.  They have gotten healthy in recent weeks especially in the secondary and are showing what they are capable of.  Joe Burrow just lit up this Arizona defense for 34 points and and 317 passing yards.  The Seahawks then held Burrow to 185 passing yards on 35 attempts, averaging just 5.3 per attempt last week.  That came after holding the Giants to 3 points and 248 total yards.

Arizona's offense has come back down here quite a bit in recent weeks.  They have averaged just 15.0 points per game in their last three games.  After getting three field goals in the first half against the Rams last week, they were shut out in the 2nd half.  The Rams rushed for nearly 200 yards in the 2nd half alone on their soft defense.

What has hurt Arizona's offense in recent weeks is losing RB James Conner to injury.  They just don't have a replacement for him.  He rushed for over 200 yards in consecutive games against the Giants and Cowboys and averaged 5.4 per carry on the season.  Their running game is almost non-existent without him, putting too much pressure on Josh Dobbs to make plays with his arm, making their offense more predictable. The Cardinals are 1-5 this season and now currently playing like the team that most of us thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in the NFL.

As of Wednesday there is a 75% chance of rain in Seattle on Sunday.  The team that runs the football more effectively is going to have a huge advantage.  Well, we saw what the Rams did against the Cardinals on the ground last week.  Arizona allows 133 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Seattle has been elite against the run, allowing just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with all three wins coming by 8 points or more, including two on the road.  I expect them to make it four in a row here.  

I'm also concerned with Dobbs and the return of Kyler Murray to practice this week, though he isn't going to play in this game but may play in their next game.  Dobbs is a dead man walking and he knows it and it's a big distraction for him and the team. Pete Carroll is 53-27 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 350 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens ML -135

The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season.  They just got their entire starting line healthy in time for that game in London.  And that was an 18-3 game at halftime that turned into a 24-16 game and a misleading final.  The Ravens dominated the Titans outgaining them 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards.

The Ravens should be 6-0 this season.  They dominated the box score in their OT loss to the Colts and they dominated the box score and blew a 10-point lead late in their loss to the Steelers.  If the Ravens were 6-0 right now like they should be, we'd be laying a bigger price on the money line on them this week.

The Ravens have elite numbers this season averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the NFL.  They really have an elite defense, allowing 15.2 points per game and 261 yards per game.  This will be by far the best defense that Detroit has faced yet this season.

While the Ravens are getting healthy, the Lions are banged up on the offensive line and at running back.  They are going to be without bruiser David Montgomery this week, and they are going to need to be able to run the ball given the weather forecast.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Baltimore on Sunday.  The pass-happy Lions aren't going to fare very well outdoors in these conditions.

The wind won't affect the run-heavy Ravens nearly as much.  Detroit's defensive scheme struggles against running quarterbacks dating back to last season, which defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has admitted is a problem.  It will rear its ugly head against Lamar Jackson and company this week.

Lamar Jackson is 18-4 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog.  Jackson is 11-1 ATS in his last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  And better yet, Jackson is 10-0 ATS in his last 10 starts with a line of +3 to -3.  He wins these games that are expected to be close, and I trust him in this spot given all the factors.  Look what he did against the vaunted Cleveland defense in Week 4, leading the Ravens to a 28-3 road victory as a 1.5-point favorite.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Lions, who have won and covered four straight against an easy schedule of Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay.  They lost to Seattle in Week 2 at home, and I'm high on the Seahawks.  They did beat the Chiefs in Week 1, but that was a fluky result with a pick 6 off a wide open receiver's hands that was the difference in a 1-point win.  Now the Lions take a big step up in class this week after facing four straight cupcake opponents.  It won't go well for them on the road in the wind in Baltimore this weekend.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indianapolis Colts +2.5

The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville last week.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Colts this week now.  Gardner Minshew hadn't turned the ball over once prior to that Jacksonville game, so it was an aberration.  The Colts had to go away from their game plan after falling behind 21-3 in the first half.  They want to run the football with their two-headed monster of Moss and Taylor, and they will get back to running the football this week.  Shane Steichen won't leave Minshew out to dry against this Cleveland pass rush.

No question Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL.  But their offense leaves a lot to be desired, and as of this writing they don't know whether or not Deshean Watson returns this week.  I like the Colts either way.  This is a massive letdown spot for the Browns following their 19-17 upset win over the 49ers last week to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season.

The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses last week against the 49ers.  Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game.  The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it.  Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.

The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski.  The Browns are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Stefanski is 3-15 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Cleveland.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +28.5

This is a massive letdown spot for Washington.  They are come off their 'game of the year' beating Oregon 36-33 after the Ducks missed a last-second field goal.  They gave up 541 total yards to the Ducks and were outgained by 126 yards and arguably should have lost, but the ball bounced their way.

Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix Jr. was noticeably injured coming down the stretch of that game but he gutted it out.  There's a chance he doesn't play this week, and even if he does he won't be 100%.  The coaching staff will be cautious with him either way, and I don't think the Huskies have any incentive to get margin here.  They will be more than happy just getting out with a victory by any margin.

Now they must face an Arizona State team playing their best football of the season and fresh off a bye.  This is the 'game of the year' for the Sun Devils with a chance to knock off an unbeaten.  I've been very impressed with them in recent weeks against quality competition.

Arizona State has gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games, and will be champing at the bit to get a win coming off their bye.

Arizona State pulled the 45-38 upset as 13.5-point home dogs against Washington last season.  The Sun Devils are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, also pulling an outright upset as 17.5-point dogs.  Arizona State is 15-6 SU & 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Washington.  Washington hasn't beaten Arizona State by more than 26 points in any the last 25 meetings, making for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Sun Devils pertaining to this 28.5-point spread.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Phillies/Diamondbacks NLCS ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -124

I'll gladly trust Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies over Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks as short favorites in this pivotal Game 5.  The Phillies won the first two games in this series by a total of 15 runs, while the Diamondbacks won the last two games by a combined two runs.  It's clear the Phillies are the better team in this series even though it's 2-2.

Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in three postseason starts this year, allowing 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 innings with 26 K's.  Wheeler is 7-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 12 career starts against Arizona.  He has held the Diamondbacks to 3 runs and 8 base runners in 12 innings with 15 K's in his last two starts against them this season.

Zac Gallen is 19-10 with a 3.58 ERA in 37 starts this season.  Gallen was blasted for 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings opposite Wheeler in his last start.  The Phillies clearly have him figured out, and I expect more of the same here in Game 5.  Bet the Phillies Saturday.

25* Mountain West TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/UNLV OVER 61.5

UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in UNLV's last four games overall with 77, 73, 64 and 72 combined points.  They have an elite offense that scores 37.7 points per game while averaging 6.1 yards per play and a soft defense that allows 6.2 yards per play despite facing a very soft schedule up to this point.

Colorado State is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 5-0 in Colorado State's five games this season with 74, 78, 54, 68 and 61 combined points.  The 54-point game was a bad weather game at Middle Tennessee.  The Rams have an improved offense that has scored at least 24 points in every game, and a terrible defense that allows 38.0 points per game, 485 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  This game will be played at a fast pace with Colorado State ranking 6th in the country in tempo at 21.2 seconds between plays and UNLV at 60th at 25.7 seconds.  Plus, UNLV has been protecting a lot of leads late and going a little slower in the second half.  They won't be able to do that against Colorado State and will have the pedal to the metal for four quarters.

UNLV is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +6.5

I love the spot for Old Dominion this week.  They are coming off a bye and I have been very impressed with what they have been able to do in what was expected to be a rebuilding year.  They have been an underdog in all five games and have managed to win two of them outright.

Old Dominion is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs.  That Louisiana team looks like a Sun Belt title contender this season.  The Monarchs only lost 24-27 as 14-point home underdogs to Wake Forest and 35-41 as 14.5-point road dogs at Marshall.  Then they beat Southern Miss 17-13 as 3-point road dogs going into the bye.

Appalachian State has been very disappointing this season.  The Mountaineers are 3-3 with their three wins coming against Gardner Webb, a rebuilding East Carolina (1-5) team, and a 41-40 win as 13.5-point favorites over a terrible Louisiana-Monroe (2-4) team.   They also lost at Wyoming and were upset at home by Coastal Carolina coming into this one.

This Appalachian State defense just cannot be trusted to get margin.  The Mountaineers allow 30.2 points per game, 396.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Compared that to Old Dominion, which allows just 5.1 yards per play, and it's easy to see which team has the better defense.  The Monarchs are holding opponents 0.5 yards per play less than their season averages, while the Mountaineers are allowing 0.9 yards per play more than their opponents typically average.  

Appalachian State has the better offense, but not by much as they average 6.1 yards per play while Old Dominion averages 5.9 yards per play.  Old Dominion is outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play while Appalachian State is dead even in net yards per play (6.1 to 6.1).  Plus, Old Dominion has played the tougher schedule to this point.

Appalachian State is 3-12 ATS in it last 15 games as a favorite.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Appalachian State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after going under the total in its previous game.  Shawn Clark is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Appalachian State.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Ohio +2

Both Toledo (6-1) and Miami Ohio (6-1) are in line to win the MAC this season.  This game has massive MAC title implications, and I'll gladly side with the home underdog here as I believe Miami is the better, more complete team.

Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall despite winning all five outright.  The Rockets have been fortunate in close games, beating San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites and Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites.  They also beat awful Western Michigan and UMass but failed to cover in both.

Conversely, Miami Ohio is 6-0 ATS & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall since losing at Miami in the opener.  That includes an upset road win at Cincinnati as 14-point dogs, and the Redhawks have been handling their business in all other game with the other five wins all coming by 13 points or more.

Miami has the better defense allowing 19.1 points per game, 333 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  Toledo has been slightly worse in all three categories.  But I feel the main difference is I trust QB Brett Gabbert over Toledo's Daquan Finn.  Gabbert has quietly been the best QB in the MAC this season, completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,455 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt.  Finn averages 7.9 per attempt with a 12-to-5 ratio.

It is expected to be windy at Miami on Saturday.  I trust Miami Ohio's run defense more than that of Toledo as well.  Miami allows 133 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry, while Toledo allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  All of these are slight edges in Miami's favor, but they add up when you're talking about getting the home team as an underdog.  Bet Miami Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +4

The Iowa Hawkeyes have nine lives this season with their pitiful offense.  They are 6-1 this season in spite of an offense that averages 20.9 points per game, 438.9 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  The Hawkeyes are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season.  I'm confident the Hawkeyes come back down to reality this week.

It's a terrible spot for Iowa, which is come off a huge win at Wisconsin last week to put them in the driver's seat for winning the Big Ten West.  That makes this a letdown spot, plus the Hawkeyes are a tired, banged up team playing for an 8th consecutive week.  

The Hawkeyes were already without their best weapon in TE Luke Lachey and QB Cade McNamara.  Then they lost their next-best weapon in TE Erick Ali to a season-ending torn ACL against Wisconsin.  They just have no playmakers on offense, and backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious, completing 38.6% (27-of-70) of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, Minnesota comes in rested and ready to go off a bye week.  There's a good chance the Golden Gophers get some key players back on offense following the bye at receiver.  The Gophers are primed for one of their best efforts of the season, and you can bet PJ Fleck and company are putting a lot into this game considering Fleck has never beaten Iowa.

The fact that Fleck has never beaten Iowa is more of a fluke than anything because the Hawkeyes keep escaping with victories from the jaws of defeat against him.  Indeed, Iowa has an eight-game winning streak against Minnesota, but six of those wins came by 7 points or less.  Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite getting outgained 399 to 280, or by 119 yards.  The year prior, they won 27-22 despite getting outgained 409 to 277, or by 132 total yards.  Iowa has had nine lives against Minnesota, too.  But the streak ends this year given the terrible spot for Iowa and the great one for Minnesota.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 90-45 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois UNDER 46

This play is largely due to the weather but also because both teams have very good defenses and both run slow-tempo offenses.  There are expected to be 20 MPH crosswinds at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois on Saturday afternoon.  Heavy winds affect scoring more than anything because it makes it much more difficult to pass than it does in rain and snow.

Eastern Michigan has one of the worst offenses in the country.  Out of 133 teams, the Eagles rank 122nd in scoring at 19.0 points per game, 132nd in total offense at 253.1 yards per game and 130th at 4.3 yards per play.  This despite facing the 2nd-easiest schedule in the entire country.  Simply put, this Eastern Michigan offense is atrocious.

With those offensive numbers, it's amazing the Eagles have managed to win four games.  They have done so due to good luck plus a pretty good defense that is only allowing 19.4 points per game.  They'll be up against a Northern Illinois offense that averages 24.9 points per game and is far from a juggernaut, averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play as well.

But Northern Illinois has a very good defense as well allowing just 22.4 points per game, 321 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They rank 23rd in total defense and 27th in yards per play.  I don't expect them to allow much at all to Eastern Michigan in this one.  They held Akron to 14 points and Ohio to 13 points in their last two games coming in.

As I stated at the beginning, both offenses are in no hurry.  Eastern Michigan ranks 109th in the country averaging 28.4 seconds in between plays.  Northern Illinois ranks 104th averaging 27.9 seconds in between plays.

Eastern Michigan is 5-2 UNDER on the season.  Five of Eastern Michigan's last six games have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  Four of Northern Illinois' last six games have seen 46 or fewer combined points, including 36 or fewer three times.  The MAC is loaded with terrible offenses in general, and there has been some bad weather already, which is normal for the Ohio Valley.  The winds have just been stronger than normal this season, and we'll take advantage by backing this MAC UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +7

I didn't expect to be betting on Kent State at any point this season.  But here we are.  I'm big on fading Buffalo because the Bulls are one of the very worst teams in all of college football.  And they have no business being favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone, not even Kent State.

Buffalo is 2-5 this season with some awful numbers.  The Bulls are averaging 323 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play and allowing 423 yards per game and 6.4 per play, getting outgained by 100 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.

Kent State has very similar numbers to Buffalo and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Golden Flashes have already faced UCF, Arkansas, Fresno and Ohio on the road.  Kent State is getting outgained by 108 yards per game and by 1.6 yards per play.  These are much closer to even teams than this line would indicate.

Buffalo just lost 24-14 at home to Bowling Green last week and I was on Bowling Green in that game.  It should have been an even bigger blowout as the Bulls turned it over 5 times and were outgained by 62 yards.  

Kent State lost 28-14 at Eastern Michigan last week in a game they should have won.  They opened the game with an onside kick that was returned for a TD.  Kent State outgained Eastern MIchigan 343 to 218, or by 125 total yards, yet lost by 14.  It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Golden Flashes off that misleading defeat.

There's a 63% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds forecast, meaning this game is likely to be played on the ground.  That benefits Kent State.  Despite the tough schedule, Kent State only allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Buffalo allows 197 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.

Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a conference loss.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The weather forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER between Wisconsin and Illinois Saturday.  There are expected to be 22 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium with gusts upwards of 30.  That's going to force both of these teams to keep the ball on the ground, shortening the game and helping us cash this UNDER 42.5 ticket.

Wisconsin is definitely going to want to keep the ball on the ground more than normal after losing starting QB Tanner Mordecai to a broken hand suffered in the 15-6 loss to Iowa last week.  That's a massive blow for this Wisconsin offense as Mordecai was completing 63.7% of his passes for 1,127 yards on the season.  Backup Braedyn Locke is a big downgrade, completing 51.6% of his 31 passes this season while averaging 4.2 per attempt.

Both teams have good defenses with Wisconsin allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Illinois is holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play, so their defense have been better than the scoring numbers show.  The beat Maryland outright last week while holding that high-octane Terrapins offense to 24 points.

Both teams are good against the run as Illinois allows 4.3 yards per rush against teams that average 4.9 per rush, holding them 0.6 yards per rush below their season averages.  Wisconsin allows just 3.9 yards per rush even after allowing an 82-yard TD run to Iowa last week.

Illinois is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +7.5

In this battle between two of the worst teams in college football, I'll side with the road team catching more than a touchdown.  I honestly think Charlotte is the better team in this one, and East Carolina (1-5) has zero home-field advantage this season.  It's a rebuilding year for the Pirates and it has shown.

I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country.  The 49ers are just 1-5 this season as well, but they have impressed me against some very good competition.  They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.  They are now 3-0 ATS on the road this season and now take a step down in class here against ECU.

SMU is a common opponent, and ECU just lost 31-10 at home to SMU as 11-point dogs.  Charlotte was only outgained by 32 yards by SMU on the road while ECU was outgained by 44 yards by SMU at home.  ECU also lost 31-13 to Marshall at home earlier this season and is 1-2 at home with its lone win coming against FCS Gardner Webb.

This is a very poor ECU offense that is averaging 19.2 points per game, 298 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season.  They are going to struggle to get margin with this putrid offense.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds which is going to keep scoring suppressed as well.  Charlotte relies more on the run than ECU does, so the wind will affect ECU's passing game more.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Rangers UNDER 9

Aces Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery square off in a rematch from Game 1 that resulted in a pitcher's duel and a 2-0 victory in favor of the Rangers.  It should be more of the same tonight with scoring suppressed after each of the last three games when over the total.

Verlander is 14-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in his last three starts.  Verlander is 22-10 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 38 career starts against Texas.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in two starts against the Rangers this season.

Jordan Montgomery is 12-10 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 35 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in three postseason starts.  Montgomery is 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in seven career starts against Houston.  He has allowed just one earned run in 13 innings in two starts against the Astros this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Jaguars/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans ML -116

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Houston Texans while the Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a misleading win over the Indianapolis Colts.  This has created line value on the Saints, and now it's time to 'buy low' on them and 'sell high' on the Jaguars.

The Saints lost 20-13 at Houston last week.  They had 430 total yards and averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding the Texans to 297 yards and 5.0 per play.  Yet they only managed 13 points due to a pair of missed field goals and red zone struggles.  They easily should have won that game.

The Jaguars won 37-20 at home over the Colts last week.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  They gave up 354 yards and 4.7 per play to the Colts.

Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury late in that Indianapolis game and was noticeably limping.  He was seen in a knee brace in Tuesday's practice and won't be 100% for this one if he goes.  The Jaguars are also likely to be without their best offensive lineman in Brandon Scherff, another offensive linemen in Walker Little, one of their top targets in WR Zay Jones, and their best CB in Tyson Campbell.

The Jaguars are a tired team right now after playing two games in London, then traveling back to Jacksonville to play the Colts without taking a bye.  And now they have to travel again to New Orleans on a short week with a bad looking injury report.  This is too tall of a task to ask them to play their best game, which is what it would take for them to get a win here.

The Saints could be missing two offensive linemen as well, but basically everyone else that's on the injury report is expected to play.  They are much healthier than the Jaguars.  Most of Jacksonville's injuries are on offense, and they will now have to go up against one of the league's best defenses.  The Saints allow just 16.0 points per game, 278.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  They have held 13 of their last 14 opponents to 20 points or fewer.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Rice/Tulsa ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57

Rice is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 84, 66, 71 and 69 combined points in the four overs.  The lone under was a bad weather game against East Carolina, which has no offense.  The weather conditions will be perfect for a shootout in Tulsa Thursday night with temps in the 70's, no rain and single-digit winds.

Rice is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season averaging 32.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play.  A big reason for their success is transfer QB JT Daniels, who is thriving in this offense.  He his completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,831 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He is being forced to try and win shootouts due to a poor Rice defense that allows 30.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.

Tulsa has played in a pair of shootouts in its last two home games.  They beat Temple 48-26 for 74 combined points and lost 66-17 to Oklahoma for 83 combined points.  The Golden Hurricane have ramped up their offense in recent weeks and hung 48 points and 533 total yards on Temple.

Cardell Williams is a great dual-threat QB for the Golden Hurricane.  He is completing 60.8% of his passes for 955 yards with an 8-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 110 yards and three scores.  He'll be facing a very poor Rice pass defense that allows 8.2 yards per attempt.

Tulsa's defense leaves a lot to be desired as well.  The Golden Hurricane allow 29.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They have been very poor against the pass, allowing 66.2% completions, 270 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt.  Both quarterbacks should thrive against these two pass defenses.

Rice is 22-9 OVER in its last 31 games overall.  Rice is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a non-conference game.  Kevin Wilson is 29-13 OVER in home games as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Phillies/Diamondbacks NLCS ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -116

The Phillies are 8-1 in the postseason with all eight wins coming by two runs or more.  They should be 9-0 at they blew a 4-0 lead to the Braves.  They have outscored the Phillies 18-3 in two games this series, and it should be more of the same in Game 3 with their big advantage on the mound.

Ranger Suarez has been at his best on the road this season with a 2.58 ERA in 11 road starts.  Suarez has been dominant in the postseason with a 1.04 ERA in two starts against the Braves, allowing just one earned run and 5 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  The Phillies won both of his starts against Spencer Strider.

Suarez fired 7 shutout innings in his last start at Arizona on June 14th.  He'll be opposed by rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who is 3-9 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 2-5 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Pfaadt has allowed 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 7 innings in two postseason starts thus far.

The Phillies are a perfect 8-0 in Suarez's eight playoff starts over the last two seasons.  They improve to 9-0 with another win in Game 3 today.  Bet the Phillies Thursday.

20* New Mexico State/UTEP ESPN 2 No-Brainer on New Mexico State -3

New Mexico State has elite numbers this season for a 4-3 team.  The Aggies average 7.7 yards per play on offense and allow 5.8 yards per play on defense.  Compare that to UTEP (2-5), which averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and 6.1 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see the Aggies are the superior team here.

Diego Paiva is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country for New Mexico State.  He is a dual-threat who is completing 62.2% of his passes for 1,615 yards while averaging 9.8 per attempt with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He also leads the team in rushing with 429 yards on 5.6 per carry and two touchdowns.

UTEP is down to fourth-string QB Cade McConnell due to injuries and poor play.  He is getting a lot of love for torching Florida International last week, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  He completed 11-of-17 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns.  But he did all of his damage in the 1st quarter of that game as the Miners jumped out to a 21-0 lead, then got outscored 14-6 in the final three quarters.  

That first quarter was an aberration, and McConnell will come back down to reality here against a much better opponent in New Mexico State.  This is a putrid UTEP offense that averages 17.7 points per game on the season.  The offense is averaging 0.3 yards per play less than their opponents allow on average, and their defense is allowing 0.5 yards per play more than their opponents average on offense.  They lost 24-10 to LA Tech in their last home game, and LA Tech is one of the worst teams in the country.  Their two wins came against FIU and FCS Incarnate Word.

UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Dana Dimel is 4-19 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as a head coach.  UTEP is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 home games after losing four of its last five games.  Jerry Kill is 6-0 ATS after winning two of their last three games as the coach of the Aggies.  Bet New Mexico State Wednesday.

15* Astros/Rangers ALCS ANNIHILATOR on Houston +117

It's now or never for the Houston Astros.  They have actually played their best baseball this season on the road, going 53-30 (+21.4 Units) in 83 road games and scoring 5.7 runs per game.  We are getting great value here on the Astros as road underdogs in Game 3 with their backs against the wall.  They have been here before, while the Rangers have not.

Bruce Bochy is a legendary managed for what he did in San Francisco and what he's doing for Texas.  But I think he's making a mistake here starting Max Scherzer, who hasn't pitched since September 12th.  He is going to be rusty and going to be on a pitch count.  Scherzer allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 innings to the Astros in his last start against them on September 6th.  The Astros will get into Texas' terrible bullpen early in this one.

Cristian Javier has come up clutch here down the stretch.  He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts, pitching 11 shutout innings with 13 K's.  Javier has had great success against Texas in his career, going 4-1 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Rangers.

The Astros are 10-1 (+10.5 Units) in Javier's 11 starts as an underdog this season.  The Astros are 8-0 in Javier's eight starts with a total set of 9 to 9.5 runs.  Houston is 9-0 in road games when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  Bet the Astros in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Diamondbacks/Phillies NLCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 5.2 runs per game at home this season while the Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road.  The Phillies are scoring 5.1 runs per game in the playoffs while the Diamondbacks are scoring 5.5 runs per game.  This total of 7.5 is too low tonight.

Aaron Nola is 14-9 with a 4.27 ERA in 34 starts this season with 32 homers allowed.  Nola is 2-2 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks.

Merrill Kelly has huge home/road splits in his career and this season.  Kelly has a 3.17 ERA and 1.125 WHIP with an 8.8 K/9 at home compared to a 4.48 ERA and 1.323 WHIP on the road with 7.5 K/9 in his career.  Kelly has a 3.79 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 16 road starts this season.

Nola is 9-1 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  The OVER is 21-11-2 in Nola's 34 starts this season.  The OVER is 14-4 in Nola's last 18 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cowboys/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5

I was on the 49ers -3.5 over the Cowboys last week and I'm fading the Cowboys again this week.  Their stats coming into that 49ers game were fraudulent because they were living on defensive touchdowns and turnovers, masking the poor performance of their offense in the red zone.  That's a tough way to live.

The Cowboys were exposed in their 42-10 loss at San Francisco.  They also got banged up on defense in that game, losing LB Leighton Vander Esch and CB C.J. Goodwin to injury.  That's bad news for a Cowboys team that just isn't as good defensively without CB Trevon Diggs.

The 49ers have a way of making teams play poorly the following week.  They play a physical brand of football, and it's mentally taxing on opponents trying to prepare for them as well.  One of the best hidden stats about the 49ers is that teams are now 2-19 SU & 4-15-2 ATS the game after facing them since the start of last year.  And now the Cowboys are being asked to go on the road as favorites when they are clearly beat up this week.

Making matters worse for the Cowboys is they'll be facing a rested Chargers team coming off their bye week.  The Chargers are also getting healthy coming into this one with Austin Ekeler making his return to the lineup, plus there's a good chance they get both S Derwin James and LB Joey Bosa back defensively.  The Chargers are now one of the healthiest teams in the league, while the Cowboys are as banged up as they have been all season.

The Chargers will be able to take advantage of a weak Dallas defense that allowed 421 total yards to the 49ers last week.  They have one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and their run game is much better with Ekeler in the fold.  Conversely, I think the Chargers are in line for another good defensive performance after holding the Raiders to 17 points and 264 total yards last time out while forcing three turnovers.  Khalil Mack had six sacks in the win.  The Chargers have elite talent on defense and massive potential when healthy like they are right now.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Phillies UNDER 7.5

There could be a little rust factor for both offenses with Arizona having four days off in between games and Philadelphia having three days off.  Colder October weather will also help us cash this UNDER 7.5 ticket with temps in the low 50's tonight in Philadelphia.

Ace Zack Wheeler is 14-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 34 starts this season for the Phillies.  Wheeler is 6-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Diamondbacks as well.

Ace Zac Gallen is 19-9 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 36 starts this season for the Diamondbacks.  Gallen is also 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in five career starts against Philadelphia.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cardinals/Rams OVER 47

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a putrid defense that allows 27.2 points per game, 375.6 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  But their offense has been better than expected, averaging 21.6 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.

The Rams also look like a dead nuts OVER team.  They have been better than expected on offense even without Cooper Kupp, averaging 22.4 points per game this season against a brutal schedule of opposing defenses.  They have faced the Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Colts and Eagles.  Now Kupp is in his 2nd game back from injury against the worst defense the Rams will have faced this season, and they should hang a big number on the Cardinals here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 47 ticket.

The Rams haven't exactly been dominant defensively.  They allowed 454 total yards to the Eagles last week.  Their defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in that game.  Also, Arizona's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes against the Bengals last week when they allowed 34 points.  It's save to say both defenses are gassed coming into this one, which is only going to help these two offenses even more.

The OVER is 4-0 in Rams last four games overall with 54, 51, 44 and 59 combined points.  The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 44 or more combined points in four of the five.  Plus, QB injuries were involved for both teams during this stretch.  Having Stafford healthy and an underrated Dobbs for this one will make all the difference.  Points will be plentiful in this one.

Arizona is 13-3 OVER in its last 10 road games following two consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more yards last game are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +7

The Jets have turned a corner taking Kansas City to the wire in a 23-20 loss, and dominating the Broncos in a 31-21 road victory last week.  This isn't that far off from the Kansas City spread as the Jets closed as 8-point home dogs.  Now they are 7-point home dogs to the Eagles, and many would have Kansas City power-rated one point better than the Eagles at this point.

The Eagles haven't faced very many good defenses this season.  Three have been the Rams, Commanders and Vikings, three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Against the two best defenses they faced they had 25 points on the Patriots but basically 14 came off turnovers.  They had 25 points against the Bucs as well.

I think the Jets can hold the Eagles to 24 or less in this one, meaning they'd only need 17 to push or cover.  They held the Bills to 16 and the Chiefs to 23 and actually outscored those two teams in the two games combined, so they have proven they can play with anyone.  The weather could be pretty rough for this one and turn it into an even lower scoring game, meaning each point is worth more.  There is a 50% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds expected.

The Jets won't mind uglying it up and running the football now that they have a fully healthy Breece Hall.  He has averaged 7.2 yards per carry this season and 7.4 yards per reception.  He is an absolute weapon for this team right now.  Zach Wilson has played his two best games of the season last last two weeks and is gaining confidence, and so is the team in him.

This is a tough spot for the Eagles as they have to fly back from Los Angeles after beating the Rams last week.  They will now be on the road for a second consecutive week and haven't been home for two weeks in a row yet.  They also have a huge game against Miami on deck, so they could be looking forward to that game.  The Eagles just haven't been that dominant this season with four of their five wins coming by single-digits.  But you're paying a tax to back them now due to their 5-0 record.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them slip up here and lose this game outright.  The Jets have just one loss by more than 5 points this season.

S Justin Evans, CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter all did not practice on Thursday for the Eagles and are questionable to play in this one.  The Jets got good injury news with Sauce Gardner expected to play and a couple offensive linemen returning to practice on a limited bases Thursday.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Dolphins OVER 48

The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL.  They are scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 514 yards per game and 8.5 yards per play.  Any total below 50 involving the Dolphins I'm going to be intrigued by the OVER.  They are going to get 35-plus here against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers are allowing 28.8 points per game this season and just gave up 42 points to the Lions last week.  They have been decimated by injuries on defense with CB Jaycee Horn and LB Shaq Thompson out, plus LB Brian Burns, S Xavier Woods and DT Derrick Brown all being held out of practice on Thursday and doubtful at best.

Bryce Young had one of his best games against the Lions last week leading the Panthers to 24 points and 342 total yards.  I think he will progressively get better, and it was going to take some time for him to get used to Frank Reich's system.  Young will be in line for one of his best games of the season against a poor Miami defense that allows 27.0 points per game this season.

Carolina is 23-6 OVER in its last 29 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored.  The weather looks good with temps in the 80's, a 33% chance of rain and only 12 MPH winds that will be either at the offenses's back or into their faces.  The Dolphins will do their part and continue scoring in the 2nd half of this one to lead the way.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5

I've backed the Jacksonville Jaguars as a premium pick each of the last two weeks in London with success.  They won and covered as 3-point favorites in a 16-point win over Jacksonville.  They won and covered as 5.5-point underdogs in a 25-20 win over Buffalo.  Jacksonville had the advantage of being familiar with the surroundings in London and becoming the first team to stay over there for two consecutive games.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Jaguars.

Jacksonville returns home and will be dealing with all the distractions that come with returning home from a long road trip.  Home field hasn't been too kind to the Jaguars this season.  They lost 17-9 to the Chiefs as 3-point dogs.  They were blasted 37-17 by the Texans as 7.5-point favorites.

Now they must play an improving Indianapolis Colts team that will be highly motivated for revenge from a 31-21 loss to the Jaguars in the opener.  That was a 10-point loss, but they did lead the Jaguars going into the 4th quarter.  They also failed to score from the 1-yard line in the final seconds, turning a 3-point loss to a 10-point loss.

That was the first game for head coach Shane Steichen.  The Colts have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS since with their lone loss coming in overtime to the Rams.  That was the only game in which Anthony Richardson started and finished.  I think Gardner Minshew is an upgrade over Richardson.  

He came in for an injured Richardson to lead a 31-20 win at Houston.  Last week, Minshew came in for an injured Richardson and led the Colts to a 23-16 home win over Tennessee.  And in the only game Minshew had a full week to prepare, if you'll remember I was on the Colts +8 over the Ravens.  They won that game outright 22-19 in overtime.

Minshew is the real deal, and Steichen has no problem adjusting the offense to fit his skill set.  He is completing 68.7% of his passes compared to just 59.5% for Richardson.  Minshew has yet to turn the ball over, either, which is huge.  This will also be a homecoming of sorts for Minshew as he made his name with the Jaguars, and will be extra motivated to beat his former team.

The Jaguars put up gaudy offensive numbers against the Bills last week, but keep in mind the Bills were already injury-ravaged on defense coming into the game, and then lost several players early in that one including Milano and Jones.  This Colts defense will offer up much more resistance.  They have allowed 23 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last four games.  WR Zay Jones, LT Cam Robinson and LG Walker Little are all banged up right now and questionable to play Sunday.  Jones and Walker did not practice Thursday and are doubtful.

The Colts have quietly rushed for at least 126 yards in four consecutive games.  They just rushed for 193 yards last week on a Tennessee Titans team that had previously been great against the run.  Zack Moss has been a revelation, and Jonathan Taylor just returned from injured reserve last week.  This is quietly one of the best two-headed monsters are running back in the NFL moving forward, which will take a ton of pressure off Minshew.  The didn't have either Moss or Taylor in the season-opening loss to the Jaguars.

I just love taking these teams out for revenge in the 2nd meeting after losing the first, especially when they are on the road as underdogs in the rematch.  I also love fading teams coming back from London.  Most teams take a bye week coming back from London, but not the Jaguars.  The last 11 teams not to take a bye week after London were either tied or trailing in the 4th quarter, including the Falcons last week in their 2-point win over the Texans.  There is a hangover effect and jet lag these teams have to deal with.  I fully expect Indianapolis to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* Ravens/Titans NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -4

John Harbaugh decided to have his team fly out on Sunday night to London.  He's had this game circled because the last time they went to London they got blown out.  They are taking this game very seriously, especially coming off a blown 10-0 lead to the Steelers and losing 17-10.

The Ravens dominated that game against the Steelers but had 7-8 drops and committed three turnovers.  If the Ravens had won that game in a blowout like they should have, this line would be higher than Baltimore -4.  I think the Ravens are primed for a big effort here.

The Ravens will have their entire offensive line intact since Week 1.  They have also several key players back on defense from injury now.  They are the healthiest they have been at any point this season, so that's another reason we should get the best version of the Ravens.

The Tennessee Titans are 0-3 on the road this season losing at New Orleans, losing 27-3 at Cleveland and falling 23-16 at Baltimore.  What had previously been a stout Tennessee run defense was shredded for 193 rushing yards by the Colts last week.  The biggest reason was not having DT Teair Tart in the middle last week as he was out with a toe injury.  He hasn't practiced this week and is doubtful.  

Tart is one of the most underrated defensive players in the entire league.  The Titans also won't have WR Treylon Burks or LB Luke Gifford for this one, plus DT Jeffery Simmons, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, S Amani Hooker and DL Denico Autry have all been limited in practice and are questionable.  The Titans are in the worst position they've been in health-wise heading into this game.

The Bills didn't arrive in London until Friday last week and were flat as a pancake against the Jaguars.  Well, the Titans took the same approach and didn't arrive in London until Friday this week.  That screams jet lag, and it's not enough time to acclimate to the time change.  Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business, but he's making a mistake not getting his team acclimated in time for this game at 9:30 AM EST.

The Ravens have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play and only allowing 4.1 yards per play on defense.  The Titans are getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense.  The Ravens are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the season here.  Remember, they scored 28 points against the Browns two weeks ago, who have  one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following an upset loss to a division opponent.  Baltimore is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 road games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Harbaugh is 16-6 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +10

Trent Dilfer is quietly doing a great job at UAB.  The Blazers have faced a brutal schedule and are 2-4 this season despite being underdogs in four of six games.  They beat North Carolina A&T to open the season 35-6, were competitive in a 35-49 loss at Georgia Southern, and lost by 20 at home to Louisiana as 2-point favorites in their first three games to open the season.  Those latter two teams are among the favorites to win the Sun Belt.

UAB is 3-0 ATS since with three straight impressive performances.  The Blazers only lost by 28 at Georgia as 40-point dogs, lost by 12 at Tulane as 21.5-point dogs, and crushed South Florida by 21 as 3.5-point dogs.  The offense is clicking with 346 total yards on Georgia, 434 total yards on Tulane and 608 total yards on South Florida.

UTSA is getting too much respect for what they have done in the past.  The Roadrunners are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS this season as a result.  They lost at Houston, only beat Texas State by 7 as 14-point home favorites, were upset by Army by 8 as 7-point home favorites and were blasted by 31 at Tennessee as 24-point dogs.  Even their lone cover last week wasn't impressive as they beat Temple 49-34 as 14-point favorites.  That's an awful Temple team that previously lost by 22 to Tulsa, by 34 to Miami, by 29 to Rutgers and barely beat lowly Akron by 3.

UAB has passed for at least 250 yards in every game this season.  Well, UTSA just gave up 472 passing yards to Temple last week.  UAB is never going to be out of this game due to a quick-strike offense that is averaging 31.8 points pe game, 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  UTSA is averaging 25.2 points per game, 393 yards per game and 5.4 per play to compare against a softer schedule.  UTSA does have the better defense, but it doesn't warrant them being double-digit favorites.

UTSA has won the conference in consecutive seasons and a big reason why was beating UAB in a pair of close games.  They won 34-31 in 2021 as 3.5-point favorites and 44-38 (OT) in 2022 as 2.5-point favorites.  You know the Blazers want revenge from those two losses, especially last year.  UAB is still 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings not once losing by more than 6 points.  Given the head-to-head history, there's clearly value on the Blazers in this one.

UTSA is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit road win.  The Roadrunners are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a two-game road trip.  UTSA is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet UAB Saturday.

20* USC/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2.5

The weather forecast is going to favor Notre Dame quite a bit in this game.  Temps will be in the 40's with a 90% chance of rain and 21 MPH crosswinds at Notre Dame Stadium Saturday night.  That's not ideal for a fair weather team like USC coming over from California and not used to the conditions.  There's been videos of coaches spraying players with water trying to catch footballs to try and acclimate to it.

Notre Dame is the more physical team with the better running game and run defense.  The Fighting Irish average 171 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry on offense and allow 133 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on defense.  USC averages 168 rushing yards per game on offense and allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry on defense.

Notre Dame has played one of the toughest schedules in the entire country, while USC has played one of the easiest.  Notre Dame has faced Ohio State, Duke and Louisville in consecutive weeks.  I think they ran out of gas against Louisville in their upset loss, but knowing they have a bye on deck and having their biggest rivals coming to town will allow them to play with max effort this week.

USC has played San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona.  The Trojans have struggled the last three weeks beating Arizona State by 14 as 34.5-point favorites, Colorado by 7 as 22.5-point favorites and Arizona by 2 in OT as 21.5-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by a combined 55.5 points the last three weeks.  I question how much they have left in the tank after needing OT to beat Arizona.

USC was outgained by Colorado and gave up 564 total yards to the Buffaloes.  USC was outgained by 141 yards by Arizona and gave up 506 total yards to the Wildcats.  After escaping with wins against both those mediocre Pac-12 teams, the Trojans' luck runs out this week.  They gave up 203 rushing yards to Arizona and 193 rushing yards to Colorado, two teams that had previously struggle to run the football.  They also gave up 198 rushing yards to San Jose State and 209 rushing yards to Stanford.  Notre Dame is going to have a monster game on the ground against this soft USC defense.

I think this is a good 'buy low' spot on Notre Dame after giving the game away last week against Louisville by committing five turnovers.  It was an aberration as the Fighting Irish had only committed two turnovers total in the six games prior.  Sam Hartman was prone to big turnover games from time to time at Wake Forest, and he got his out of the way on the road at Louisville.  Hartman and company will be highly motivated to make amends here at home against USC.

USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games following two consecutive wins as favorites where they failed to cover the spread.  Lincoln Riley is 4-15 ATS in road games after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games as a head coach.  Since 2015, there have been 14 teams at 6-0 or better listed as underdogs to a two-loss team.  11 of the 14 lost outright, including USC last year at Utah.

This is a big step up in class for the Trojans this week and a test I expect them to fail given the strength of schedule discrepancy and the forecast.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Missouri/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR Kentucky -2.5

Both Missouri and Kentucky are 5-1 this season and have been impressive.  However, I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on Kentucky after getting embarrassed by Georgia 51-13 on the road last week.  I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Missouri after they should have had four consecutive covers, but blew it late against LSU last week.

Missouri led LSU 39-35 with less than three minutes left.  They gave up a touchdown and then an interception return TD in the final seconds to lose 49-39.  I think the Tigers will be deflated having their perfect season come to an end in that kind of fashion.  They are also a tired team after playing in that shootout, and now must travel on the road to a tough place to play in Kentucky.

The forecast is going to help Kentucky in this one.  There is a 62% chance of rain with 19 MPH winds projected Saturday.  Kentucky is the better running team and the better team at stopping the run, while Missouri relies more on moving the football through the air to score points.  Missouri only averages 4.3 yards per carry on offense and allows 3.4 per carry on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 per carry on the ground.  Kentucky averages 5.8 yards per carry and allows 3.1 per carry, outgaining opponents by 2.7 per carry.  That's a huge discrepancy.

Missouri has only played one true road game this season and that came at Vanderbilt, which is 0-7 ATS this season and has zero home-field advantage.  This will be their stiffest road test of the season by far.  Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Missouri.  Kentucky is 7-1 SU in its last eight meetings with Missouri overall.  The Wildcats' dominance of the Tigers continues in 2023.  

Plays on home favorites (Kentucky) - after going over the total by 21 or more points in their last three games, a top-level team winning more than 80% of their games when playing against a team with a winning record are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +11.5

The LSU Tigers cannot possibly have much left in the tank.  They will be playing for their 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet, especially of late.  Three weeks ago they beat Arkansas 34-31, two weeks ago they lost at Ole Miss 55-49 and last week they needed a last-second comeback to beat Missouri 49-39 on the road only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds in what was a misleading score.

I expect LSU to be flat as a pancake hosting Auburn this week.  Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off a bye week after giving two-time defending national champion Georgia all they could handle two weeks ago, losing 27-20 as 14-point home dogs.  First-year head coach Hugh Freeze is one of the most profitable head coaches to back in the entire country.  Teams benefit the most from bye weeks with first-year head coaches due to the new schemes, and Auburn will have a tremendous game plan for LSU this week.

The game plan should be to run the football on this soft, tired LSU defense.  Auburn rushed for 219 yards on Georgia two weeks ago which is no small feat.  They rush for 204 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.  LSU allows 163 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season, which is absolutely horrible for a team that recruits as well as LSU.  Auburn also has an underrated defense that is holding opponents 11.4 points per game below their season averages.  They allow 18.2 points per game, 323 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  LSU allows 32.3 points per game, 446 yards per game and 6.7 per play.

Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last six meetings with LSU, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  LSU hasn't beaten Auburn by more than 4 points in any of those seven meetings.  Given the terrible spot for the home team and the big rest advantage for the road team, there's no way LSU should be laying double-digits here.  Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +7.5

Louisville is in a terrible spot Saturday.  They are coming off the big 33-20 home win over Notre Dame as 6.5-point underdogs last week to remain unbeaten.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals as they will be flat as a pancake this week following one of the biggest wins in program history.

This is the classic Pat Narduzzi spot.  He has a reeling Pitt team that has gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  The Panthers are coming off a bye week, and I trust Narduzzi to come up with the proper game plan to possibly pull off this upset.  It's circle the wagons time, and I'm expecting the biggest effort of the season from Pitt this week with Louisville coming to town.

Unfortunately for Narduzzi, he got burned in the transfer portal trusting Phil Jurkovec to be a capable QB.  He has been hugely disappointing just as he was at Boston College prior.  He is completing just 50.9% of his passes on the season.  The Panthers are going with a new quarterback this week, and he'll have the benefit of two weeks of practice preparing to be the starter.  It cannot possibly go worse than it has with Jurkovec thus far.

This is a night game at Pitt at 6:30 EST Saturday night so the atmosphere will be electric.  The forecast is also going to help the underdog with a 96% chance of rain and 12 MPH winds.  Louisville's passing game would have the advantage in perfect conditions, but this game is likely to be played more on the ground because of the forecast.  That will shorten the game and help the underdog.  Pitt only allows 130 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.

Narduzzi is 16-7 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game as the coach of Pitt.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points ( Pitt) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS overt he last 10 seasons.  

Pat Narduzzi has faced a team 6-0 or better three times in the regular season, and twice the Panthers won outright.  They won 43-42 as 21-point dogs over Clemson when they were 5-4 and Clemson was 9-0 in 2016.  They won 24-14 as 12-point dogs over 10-0 Miami when they were 4-7 in 2017.  And in 2018, the 3-3 Panthers nearly beat 6-0 Notre Dame in a 19-14 loss as 21-point dogs.

Since 1978, 49 teams have gone off favored the week after upsetting Notre Dame.  Only 12 of the 49 covered the spread and nine of those 12 were double-digit favorites.  15 of the 49 lost outright, and 11 of the last 13 have failed to cover the spread since 2011.  I would not be surprised at all so see the Panthers pull off the upset here coming off the bye and with the Cardinals in a massive letdown spot.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -10

Kirk Ferentz has worked wonders getting this Iowa team to 5-1 in spite of an offense that is averaging more punt yards this season than total yards.  His luck ran out against Penn State in a 31-0 road loss for their lone defeat, and it will run out on the road against similar caliber Wisconsin team again this week.

Iowa is only averaging 250 yards pre game and 4.6 yards per play on offense this season.  Backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious taking over for an injured Cade McNamara.  Hill has completed 21-of-56 (37.5%) passes while averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Hawkeyes are without their top target in TE Lachey and have other significant injuries at WR and RB.  Their offensive line is getting no push and is one of the worst offensive lines of the Ferentz era.

Wisconsin has its best offense in years this season with some great balance averaging 205 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry and 210 passing yards per game.  The Badgers are averaging 31.4 points per game against teams that only allow 24.4 points per game.  They have yet another elite defense this season allowing just 18.4 points per game, holding opponents to nearly 13 points per game below their season averages.  They only allow 108 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry as well.

Iowa only averages 121 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry while allowing 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  The Hawkeyes just aren't as strong at the line of scrimmage as they have been in the past, and that's going to be a problem here.  Conditions are going to be terrible with an 85% chance of rain and 28 MPH winds.  This game will be won at the line of scrimmage, and I'll side with Badgers as a result.  I think they can get 20-plus points in this one, and I would be shocked if Iowa's putrid offense got to 10.  Wisconsin held Iowa to 146 total yards last year and 156 total yards in 2021.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington ABC No-Brainer on Washington ML -137

I like both of these teams a ton and think both are national title contenders.  But Washington gets the good fortune of getting this game at home, and the Huskies have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere like nothing Oregon has seen before.

Oregon has played two true road games this season and one was at Stanford, which doesn't count.  The other was a 38-30 win at Texas Tech and a misleading final.  They trailed 27-18 going into the 4th quarter.  They also got a 45-yard INT return TD with 35 seconds left as Texas Tech was trying to get in range for the game-winning field goal.  The Ducks were +4 in turnovers in that game as well.  That's a Texas Tech team that has been far from impressive with losses to Wyoming and West Virginia this season.

Washington could not have been more impressive in its three home games this season.  The Huskies won 56-19 as 14.5-point favorites against Boise State, 43-10 as 34-point favorites against Tulsa and 59-32 as 20-point favorites against California.  They also won 41-7 at Michigan State and 31-24 at Arizona while outgaining the Wildcats by 132 yards.  That's a pesky Arizona team that also took USC to OT last week.

Oregon has faced a much softer schedule than Washington, and that strength of schedule discrepancy matters a lot.  Oregon wants to run the football, and Washington is great at stopping the run, allowing 122 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Bo Nix is going to have to try and win this game with his arm, and he has huge home/road splits in his career.  

I'll gladly side with Michael Penix Jr. over Nix in this one.  Penix is the Heisman Trophy favorite right now leading a Washington offense that averages 46.0 points per game, 570 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play.  He is completing 74.7% of his passes for 1,999 yards with a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.  He led the Huskies to a 37-34 upset win at Oregon last year while throwing for 408 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this Ducks defense.

Oregon is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better.  Plays on home teams (Washington) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in three consecutive games, in a game between two teams with eight or more defensive starters back are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1992.  

Plays on home favorites on the money line (Washington) - following a win in a game involving two top-level teams that win greater than 80% of their games on the season are 53-6 (89.8%, +41.7 Units) over the last five seasons.  

In the last 19 meetings between Oregon and Washington, the favorite is 16-3 SU & 16-3 ATS.  The favorite is also 18-4 SU & 18-4 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Ducks are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  They were 6-point dogs on average and lost by an average of 24.8 points per game in these five games.  Bet Washington on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +42.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Penn State after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in five games to start the season.  Penn State needed to punch in late scores against West Virginia and Northwestern when they could have taken knees to cover those two spreads.  And they had no business covering at Illinois in a 30-13 win as 14-point favorites but won the turnover battle 5-0.  A 17-point win being +5 in turnovers is not impressive at all.

Penn State isn't going to care about covering against UMass.  The Nittany Lions have their biggest game of the season on deck at Ohio State and will be looking ahead to that game.  I expect them to pull starters in the second half, and I don't think they'll be covering at any point against UMass in this one.

UMass actually has very good numbers for a team that is 1-6 this season, so it's time to 'buy low' on the Minutemen.  They are only getting outgained by 56 yards per game on the season.  Their offense has been able to move the football with 26.1 points per game, 397 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  I think they can punch in a score or two to cover this inflated number against a Penn State in an awful spot looking ahead to Ohio State.  

The forecast is also going to help us cash this UNDER.  There is a 96% chance of rain with temps in the 40's Saturday at Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are going to have a hard time getting explosive plays in the rain, and they lack explosive plays all season.  They play a methodical style offense focused on the ground game and short passes.  I won't be surprised if they don't even reach 42 points today.  Bet UMass Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Troy -4.5

Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS and should have covered in all three games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Eagles 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites last week and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.

This Troy offense remains elite, and this Troy defense is getting back to playing like it did a year ago.  The Trojans have been real stout against the run, which is the key matchup here against Army's triple-option.  Troy only allows 88 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry, while Army averages 201 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  

That's actually pretty disappointing for Army considering their opponents average giving up 5.0 per carry, so they are not running it with nearly as much success as they have in year's past.  A big reason is because they are trying to pass the ball more this season, and while they have had more success it hasn't shown up in the win-loss column.  

Army is just 2-3 this season beating Delaware State and a UTSA team that was playing with a backup QB.  They lost 17-13 to LA-Monroe, which looks real bad after LA-Monroe lost 55-7 to South Alabama last week, a team of Troy's caliber.  They lost 29-16 at Syracuse which was just blasted 40-7 by North Carolina.  And last week they lost 27-24 at home to Boston College which was blasted 56-28 by Louisville.  They also lost in the final seconds giving up a TD to BC, and I could see a hangover effect from that defeat.

Troy is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Bowling Green +4.5

Buffalo is one of the worst teams in college football and could easily be 0-6.  The Bulls opened 0-4 with a 21-point loss at Wisconsin, an upset loss to Fordham as 22.5-point favorites, a blowout home loss to Liberty by 28 as 3-point dogs and a 7-point loss at Louisiana as 10.5-point dogs.  They were down 21 to Louisiana with five minutes left but tacked on two meaningless touchdowns in a misleading final.

Buffalo then never led until OT against Akron in a 13-10 win only after Akron's starting QB got hurt.  And last week's 37-13 home win over Central Michigan was very misleading.  They were outgained by Central Michigan but were +4 in turnovers, including two defensive touchdowns.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulls now after that misleading 'blowout' win.

Bowling Green is also 2-4 this season but has been much more impressive.  They only lost by 10 at Liberty despite being -4 in turnovers, giving these teams a common opponent.  Buffalo lost by 28 to Liberty and was dominated in the box score, too.  Bowling Green only lost by 25 to Michigan as 41-point dogs.  The Falcons upset Georgia Tech 38-27 as 21-point road dogs two weeks ago before naturally having a letdown in a 27-0 loss at Miami Ohio last week.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

Bowling Green has played a much tougher schedule than Buffalo this season.  That's significant because Bowling Green is only getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play, while Buffalo is getting outgained by 1.8 yards per play this season.  Bowling Green is the better team and should not be underdogs here.

Bowling Green is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 road games when playing against a team with a losing record.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +33.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on Michigan following consecutive blowout road wins at Nebraska 45-7 and at Minnesota 52-10.  The Wolverines have been much less dominant at home, going 0-3-1 ATS in their four home games not winning any of them by more than 28 points against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana off a blowout 44-17 road loss at Maryland.  The Hoosiers had a bye last week coming off that defeat to regroup, and I expect a much better effort from them this week.  Keep in mind Indiana only lost by 7 on a neutral to Louisville and by 20 at home to Ohio State earlier this season.  Both Louisville and Ohio State are unbeaten to this point.

The forecast is going to help us cash the big underdog Hoosiers here.  There is a 90% chance of rain with 20 MPH winds expected in Michigan Saturday.  The Wolverines aren't going to be able to score enough points with that forecast to cover this inflated number.  They may not even score 34 or 35, which is what it's going to take to cover.

Michigan ranks 132nd out of 133 teams in tempo.  They average 31.8 seconds in between snaps.  Shortening the game for us also helps the underdog.  Indiana ranks 108th in pace at 28.4 seconds in between snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which again favors the big underdog.

Michigan hasn't been able to beat Indiana by this kind of margin in any of the last 16 meetings.  In fact, each of the last 16 meetings were decided by 31 points or less, including 15 by 25 points or fewer.  That makes for a 16-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 33.5-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Stanford/Colorado ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +12

The Colorado Buffaloes are running on fumes.  They will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week here with this being a Friday night game.  They have been through the gauntlet of TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, Oregon, USC and Arizona State thus far.  They are coming off a 3-point win over ASU on the road last week that followed up a 7-point loss at USC with both games going to the wire and both needing max effort for 60 minutes.  They won't have anything left in the tank for Stanford tonight.

Meanwhile, Stanford gets a massive scheduling advantage here coming off a bye week following their home loss to Oregon.  Stanford has a first-year head coach, so bye weeks are much more beneficial to teams with first-year head coaches.  The Cardinal needed the bye because they went through the gauntlet as well with Hawaii, USC, Oregon and Arizona on the schedule thus far.  They nearly upset Arizona in a 1-point loss and beat Hawaii handily on the road while getting blown out by the other two teams as expected.

Colorado will remain without its best player in Travis Hunter for this game as they want to give him the extra time to rest especially with a bye on deck.  I don't think this Colorado defense can be trusted to lay this kind of number.  We saw that with Colorado State as they needed a last-second score just to force OT to win as 23-point home favorites a few weeks ago.  That's the same Colorado State team that just got blasted 44-24 by Utah State and outgained by over 300 yards.  Colorado allows 34.2 points per game, 466 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, so Stanford is never going to be out of this game.

Colorado is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 56.5 to 63 points.  The Buffaloes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in two consecutive games.  Plays on road underdogs (Stanford) - off two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers against a team that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This situational rest advantage for the Cardinal is not being factored into this line enough.  Bet Stanford Friday.

20* Fresno State/Utah State MWC ANNIHILATOR on Utah State +6.5

Utah State is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football despite being just 3-3 SU & 3-3 ATS this season.  Preseason expectations were very low on this team, but they have been very impressive, especially of late.

Utah State only lost 24-14 at Iowa as 24-point dogs in the opener and actually outgained the Hawkeyes.  They then beat Idah State 78-28 before losing on the road at Air Force by 18.  They only lost by 7 to James Madison at home in a coin flip game.  They have since gone on the road and won 34-33 at Connecticut, and last week was their most impressive performance yet beating Colorado State 44-24 as 3-point home dogs when all the money came against them.

They racked up 639 total yards on a very good Colorado State defense while holding a high-powered Rams offense to 320 total yards, outgaining them by 319 yards for the game.  Now they get to stay at home and host Fresno State in what is a huge game for them if they want to be Mountain West title contenders.  The Bulldogs are the defending conference champs, so Utah State will give an 'A' effort in this one.

Fresno State got off to a fraudulent 5-0 start against a very easy schedule that included home games against Eastern Washington, Kent State and Nevada.  But the Bulldogs finally met their match last week, losing 19-24 at Wyoming as 5-point favorites.  They now have to play in altitude for a 2nd straight week and are on a short week with this being a Friday game.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Fresno State here is because star QB Mikey Keene was was knocked out of that Wyoming loss late with injuries to both of his legs.  He remains questionable to play this week, and it's a long shot on a short week.  Backup Logan Fife isn't nearly as good.  Keene is a UCF transfer who played great for them last year and has carried over that play to Fresno State, completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio in 2023.  It would be a massive blow if he cannot go, but I love Utah State either way here.

Despite facing the much tougher schedule, Utah State has numbers that match those of Fresno State thus far.  Utah State averages 6.6 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 yards per play on defense outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  Fresno State averages 5.7 per play on offense and allows 4.5 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play as well.  Again, the Bulldogs have faced the much easier schedule.

Utah State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Utah State) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Utah State Friday.

15* Broncos/Chiefs AFC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 47

The weather forecast has driven this total down from as high as 52 to below the key number of 48 and down to another key number of 47 tonight.  There are expected to be 15-25 MPH winds, so the move down was expected, but it has gone too far.  I think there's value on the OVER 47 here.

Even if the Chiefs decide to keep the ball on the ground more, they are going to continue to score.  They face the worst defense in the entire NFL in the Broncos, who allow 36.2 points per game, 451 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  The Broncos allow 188 rushing yards per game and 5.9 per carry this season.

The Broncos are much-improved on offense this season.  They average 6.1 yards per play on offense, which is a Top 5 mark in the league.  They also average 4.9 yards per carry on the ground, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  They are going to be able to run the football on this Kansas City defense, and Russell Wilson has ample healthy weapons outside this season.

The Broncos and their opponents have combined for 68, 90, 59 and 52 points in their last four games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with 51, 62 and 52 combined points.  And two of those were with Denver's terrible offense and elite defense last year.  It is opposite for the Broncos this season with a solid offense and the worst defense in the NFL.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Braves/Phillies NLDS ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +133

The Philadelphia Phillies have outscored the Atlanta Braves 20-7 through three games in this series. I like the value we are getting on the Phillies as home underdogs tonight as once again the Braves are getting too much respect from the books.

Few starters have had as much success against the Braves as Ranger Suarez, who has posted a 2.66 ERA in nine career starts against them.  Suarez is 1-0 with a minuscule 0.90 ERA in his last six starts against Atlanta, allowing just 3 earned runs in 30 innings.

Spencer Strider is the ace of this Atlanta staff but he is vulnerable with a 3.76 ERA in his 33 starts this season.  The Phillies are 7-0 (+10.1 Units) in Suarez's last seven playoff starts.  Bet the Phillies Thursday.

20* West Virginia/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on West Virginia -2.5

West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Mountaineers play a physical brand of football that belongs in the Big Ten.  These Big 12 teams aren't prepared for it, and it's working wonders for the Mountaineers thus far.  Running the football and playing defense still wins in college football.

West Virginia is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with its lone loss coming on the road at Penn State in a game they should have covered, but James Franklin decided to punch one more score in instead of taking knees in the opener.  The Mountaineers have since reeled off four straight wins and covers, beating Duquesne 56-17 as 38.5-point favorites, Pitt 17-6 as 2.5-point favorites, Texas Tech 20-13 as 6-point dogs and TCU 24-21 as 13-point road dogs.

I don't trust Dana Holgorsen and Houston.  I gave them a chance last game as 10-point underdogs at Texas Tech because the Red Raiders had a backup QB going.  They jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but it didn't last long as they were blasted 49-28 to fall to 2-3 this season.  They were lucky to beat UTSA in the opener 17-14 due to being +3 in turnovers, or they'd be 1-4.  They also were upset at Rice as 7-point favorites.  Their only legit win came over Sam Houston State, which is 0-5 this season.

This is one of the rare instances we have two common opponents to compare these teams.  Houston lost 36-13 at home to TCU and 49-28 on the road to Texas Tech.  West Virginia beat TCU 24-21 on the road and beat Texas Tech 20-13 at home.  As you can see, West Virginia beat those two teams by a combined 10 points while Houston lost to them by a combined 44 points.

West Virginia has by far the superior defense allowing just 19.0 points per game, 335 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  Houston allows 29.8 points per game, 406 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  West Virginia averages 194 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry despite facing a tough schedule of opposing rush defenses, and Houston allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry despite facing an easy schedule of opposing rush offenses.  Bet West Virginia Thursday.

25* MLB Division Series TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

Two gas cans go tonight in Game 3 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks.  The end result will be a slug fest that likely gets OVER the total by the time these two starters exit the game.

Lance Lynn is 13-11 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 32 starts this season with a whopping 44 homers allowed.  Lynn is 7-6 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 16 road starts allowing 62 earned runs and 26 homers in 92 innings.

Brandon Pfaadt is 3-9 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 19 starts this season allowing 60 earned runs and 20 homers in 92 2/3 innings.  Pfaadt is 2-5 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in 10 home starts.  He is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA and 2.076 WHIP in two starts against the Dodgers this season, allowing 9 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 22-10 in Lynn's 32 starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CFB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Sam Houston State/New Mexico State UNDER 42

There are expected to be 20 MPH winds inside Aggie Memorial Stadium Wednesday night in this matchup between Sam Houston State and New Mexico State.  Points are going to be hard to come by because of these winds, plus the fact that both teams like to play at a snail's pace.

New Mexico State ranks 128th out of 133 teams in tempo averaging 30.5 seconds in between plays.  Sam Houston State ranks 101st at 27.9 seconds in between plays, which says a lot about how slow they play when you consider they have trailed in every game this season and are 0-5 on the year.

Sam Houston has the worst offense in the entire country averaging 241.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  But they do have a very good defense that allows 379 yards per game despite facing a very tough schedule of BYU, Air Force, Houston, Liberty and Jacksonville State.  I would argue that this New Mexico State offense is the worst that they will have played all season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Braves/Phillies NLDS No-Brainer on Philadelphia -121

The Atlanta Braves haven't decided if they're going with A.J. Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder as of this writing.  It doesn't matter as both are gas cans, and the Braves are going to be at a severe disadvantage on the mound against Aaron Nola and the Phillies.

Nola is 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in 15 home starts this season.  He has been very sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.712 WHIP in his last three starts.  Nola has fared very well against the Braves, going 16-10 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 34 career starts against them.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners in 12 innings in his last two starts against them this season.

Nola is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three home starts against the Braves, pitching 18 innings without allowing a single earned run.  Philadelphia is 26-8 in its last 34 home games after a game where the bullpen blew a save.  Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

15* Orioles/Rangers ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +122

The Baltimore Orioles got their bats going with 14 hits and 8 runs against the Rangers in Game 2.  I think that great hitting carries over into Game 3 tonight against Nathan Eovaldi and this awful Texas bullpen.

Eovaldi's gem against the Rays in his last start was an aberration.  He had previously been a gas can since returning from injury on September 5th.  Unfortunately, with DeGrom, Scherzer and Gray out, he has been forced back into action.  Eovaldi went 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA in his previous six starts, allowing 21 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 1/3 innings while not making it past the 5th inning in any start.

Dean Kremer has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 13-5 with a 4.12 ERA in 32 starts this season and the Orioles are 24-8 (+17.9 Units) in those 32 starts.  Kremer is 5-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 13 road starts as well.  The Orioles are 20-4 (+17.3 Units) in Kremer's 24 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs this season.

I think the spot is terrible for the Rangers.  They have played 11 consecutive road games prior to this game, so they have been on the road since September 25th.  There are distractions they have to deal with coming back home, and they are fat and happy going into this one with a 2-0 lead.  I'll side with the more focused, determined Orioles in Game 3 tonight as underdogs.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

20* Coastal Carolina/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Two high-powered offense go up against two suspect defenses tonight in this annual showdown between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State that usually ends up in a shootout.  It will be more of the same here Tuesday night.

Appalachian State averages 36.4 points per game, 463 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  The Mountaineers have great balance, rushing for 204 yards per game and passing for 259 yards per game.  They have a poor defense, allowing 30.8 points per game and 5.7 yards per play despite facing a soft schedule of opposing offenses that average 22.8 points pe game and 5.0 per play, allowing 8.0 points per game and 0.7 yards per play more.  They like to play fast ranking 41st of 133 teams at 24.7 seconds between plays.

Coastal Carolina averages 30.8 points per game, 425 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Grayson McCall.  He is completing 64.3% of his passes for 1,302 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.8 per attempt.  Coastal allows 397 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense thus far despite facing a weak schedule.

Coastal is coming off a 28-38 loss to Georgia Southern and 66 combined points.  Appalachian State is coming off a 41-40 win over LA-Monroe and 81 combined points.  Note that LA-Monroe only scored 7 points against South Alabama last week, so that just shows how down this Mountaineers defense is this season.

Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State 35-28 last season for 63 combined points.  These teams have combined for at least 57 points in six of their last even meetings.  They have averaged 67.5 combined points in their last four meetings.  

Coastal Carolina is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following two consecutive unders.  Appalachian State is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games coming off a win by 3 points or less.  The Chanticleers are 10-2 OVER in their last 12 road games after playing their last game on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Packers/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Green Bay ML +105

I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers Monday.  They played last Thursday so they've had nearly two weeks to prepare for the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Packers have been one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL in the early going, so this extra rest is huge for them.  Guys like Aaron Jones and Christian Watson returned from injury last game but were on a snap count.  Both should be back to full strength and play the entire game, which will help out Jordan Love drastically.

The Packers have the better offense in this one with Love and his playmakers over likely Jimmy G and his playmakers.  It's no coincidence Jimmy G has struggled and gotten hurt again here now that he doesn't have Kyle Shanahan calling the shots for him.  It's a big downgrade in head coach Josh McDaniels, who continues making the wrong decisions for this team.  Davante Adams is banged up with a shoulder injury and did not practice Thursday.

The biggest weakness for the Packers this season has been their run defense.  However, that shouldn't be much of an issue here as the Raiders haven't been able to get anything going on the ground.  They average 65 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry against teams that allow 137 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry, so they have faced a weak schedule of opposing run defenses.  The Raiders are averaging just 15.5 points per game, which is really poor considering they have an offensive-minded head coach in McDaniels.  The Raiders also give up 25.3 points per game.

Matt LaFleur is 9-1 ATS after being outrushed by 75 yards or more as the coach of Green Bay.  LaFleur is 16-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Packers.  Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games.  The Packers are better on both sides of the ball and at head coach.  The only thing the Raiders have going for them is home field, but Packers fans will travel and it will probably be closer to a 50/50 split.  Green Bay has a bye on deck next week so will be 'all in' here to get a win and improve to 3-2 going into the bye.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line.

20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL this season.  They have now won 14 consecutive regular season games, are 13-1 since trading for Christian McCaffrey, and haven't lost a game in which Brock Purdy has started and finished.  The 49ers have won 10 consecutive home games with all 10 wins coming by 6 points or more, including seven by double-digits.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games.

The 49ers have dominant stats, most notably on a yards per play basis, which is my favorite stat in the NFL.  They have scored at least 30 points in all four games this season while averaging 398 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They allow just 14.5 points per game, 284 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.

Dallas has been living off turnovers and defensive touchdowns to mask their problems on offense.  They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games and are +9 in turnover differential, many of those which were returned for touchdowns.  Non-offensive touchdowns are tough to count on.  Their offense has struggled in the red zone this year, and that will be the difference in this game.

The Cowboys won't be able to turn the 49ers over as they have committed only one turnover all season.  Brock Purdy is great at taking care of the football.  The Cowboys only average 5.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.1 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play.  Those are numbers of an average team, so the Cowboys aren't in the same breathe as the 49ers in that department.  But many see these as close to even teams, which just isn't the case.

The 49ers have knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs each of the past two seasons, and I think the 49ers are better this season than they were in those two previous playoff wins.  They won 23-17 on the road in 2022 and 19-12 at home last season.  Dak Prescott could not do anything against their defense, and he will struggle once again.

Another key is that the 49ers are going to be able to run the football on Dallas, which was the key to Arizona pulling off the 28-16 upset over the Cowboys two weeks ago.  They rushed for 222 yards on 30 carries on the Cowboys.  Dallas was able to pin its ears back in the other three games against Daniel Jones and the Giants, Zach Wilson and the Jets and Mac Jones and the Patriots due to building large leads with their defense.  They won't be able to pin their ears back against the 49ers, who rush for 141 yards per game and have an MVP candidate in Christian McCaffrey who has been unstoppable to this point.

San Francisco is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The matchup of head coaches with Kyle Shanahan over Mike McCarthy is worth a couple points here as well with Shanahan far and away better than McCarthy.  Bet the 49ers Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR Bengals/Cardinals OVER 44.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They scored 28 points on the Giants, 28 on the Cowboys and then 16 on the 49ers and it should have been 24 because they missed a 2-point conversion and had two drops in the end zone to end the game.  They had no problem moving the football on both the 49ers and Cowboys, who have arguably the two best defenses in the NFL.

Arizona has a hideous defense that allows 25.5 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  We are 'buying low' on this Cincinnati Bengals offense, which has been the most disappointing offense in the league when compared to preseason expectations.  I think a trip to Arizona inside a dome could be just what the doctor ordered for Joe Burrow and company to get on track.

The Bengals have played four straight outdoor games to open the season against the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Titans.  Three of those four teams have elite defenses while the Rams are decent, and the Bengals had some success against the Rams.  Arizona has by far the worst defense the Bengals will have faced all season.

This Cincinnati defense has been almost equally disappointing taking a big step back this season.  The Bengals allow 23.5 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  Josh Dobbs and James Conner are in line for a big game on the ground.  The Bengals allow 157 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  That will open things up for Dobbs down the field.  Arizona averages 144 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per play overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Dolphins OVER 49.5

I locked in this total on Monday prior to the Giants facing the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.  I did it in anticipation that this total would get bet to 50 or above.  But it has creeped back down largely due to the Giants being held to 3 points by the Seahawks.  I would probably make it a 25* play at 47 or 47.5, which is currently where it's at as of this writing.  So adjust your bets accordingly as this is one of the rare times I've gotten a worse line.  I still think this total should be 51 or higher.

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have the most explosive offense in the NFL scoring 37.5 points per game, averaging 511 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play.  Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous over a four-game sample size.  They remain healthy on offense and can name their number on this Giants defense, which is allowing 30.5 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

The Giants have been woeful on offense this season, but they have also played a very tough schedule of opposing defenses.  They have faced arguably the two best defenses in the NFL in the Cowboys and 49ers.  They also faced a Seahawks team that got several key players back from injury on defense prior to their game and lived up to their potential.

In their lone game against a bad defense, the Giants put up 31 points and 439 total yards on the Cardinals.  The Dolphins may have a worse defense than the Cardinals.  They allow 29.8 points per game, 374.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The Bills hung 48 points on them last week, and Daniel Jones is in line for another big game like he had against the Cardinals.

The Giants had to go up-tempo in the 2nd half to come back from a 28-7 deficit to beat the Cardinals.  They are going to have to go up-tempo against the Dolphins as well because I expect them to be trailing the entire time trying to keep pace.  There's a chance the Giants get Saquon Barkley back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis.  But I like the OVER regardless of whether or not he plays.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only an 18% chance of precipitation and 7 MPH winds in Miami.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Jaguars/Bills NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

The Buffalo Bills beat themselves in the opener with four turnovers in a 22-16 loss to the Jets.  It was one of Josh Allen's worst games against a Jets defense that just has him figured out.  Allen and this Buffalo offense have responded in a big way since.

The Bills put up 38 points and 450 total yards on the Raiders in Week 2, 37 points and 386 total yards on the Commanders in Week 3 and 48 points and 414 total yards on the Dolphins in Week 4.  They have averaged 41 points per game in their last three games.

I think they can get to 30 points against Jacksonville to help pave the way to us cashing this OVER 48 ticket.  The Jaguars are allowing 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  I also think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars.  LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension.  WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon.  WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well.

The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead.  They won't be able to be vanilla against this Buffalo offense as they will have to try and match them score for score.  

They get a banged-up Buffalo defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all banged up on defense.  LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely.

The weather looks great for Sunday in London with temps in the 70's, light winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation.  I think we get a shootout here with these two talented offenses.  

Buffalo is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games following three consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Jacksonville is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  Doug Pederson is 8-0 OVER In road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach.  Sean McDermott is 6-0 OVER following a win by 21 points or more over a division opponent as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills.  They are coming off three consecutive blowout wins.  Last week's 48-20 win over Miami was the one they really wanted, and I think they will be flat after making a statement and letting the Dolphins know they are still the kings of the division.

Buffalo's three straight blowout wins were largely due to being +9 in turnovers and forcing 10.  That's not sustainable.  The Bills have actually been one of the worst defenses in the NFL from a yards per play perspective, allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  I think this Jacksonville offense will get on track this week.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Jaguars.  LT Cam Robinson is expected to return from his four-game suspension.  WR Zay Jones has missed the past two games with a knee injury but returned to practice this week to give Trevor Lawrence another weapon.  WR and return specialist Jamal Agnew sat out Week 4 with a quod injury and could return as well.

The Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the Falcons last week and played vanilla offense in the second half to preserve the lead.  They won 23-7 and were never really in jeopardy.  Doug Pederson knows he's going to have to keep the foot on the gas to hang with the Bills, and I think the Jaguars are fully capable.

 The spot really favors Jacksonville.  They are the first team that gets to stay in London for consecutive weeks.  They are used to the scenery and there will be no jet lag.  Jet lag will be a real issue for the Bills, who will be playing a 9:30 AM EST body clock game.  I think they'll still be hung over from that huge Miami win.

Buffalo has a banged-up defense that just lost star CB Tre'Davious White to a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  They also have CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde, DE Greg Rousseua, DE Leonard Floyd and LB Matt Milano all on the injury report on defense.  LB Von Miller could make his season debut this week but it's unlikely.  TE Dawson Knox is questionable as well.

The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road/neutral games.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +22

This is a terrible spot for the USC Trojans.  They are coming off the big National TV win over Deion Sanders and Colorado last week and they have Notre Dame on deck next week followed by Utah.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Trojans, and I expect them to be flat as a result.

The Trojans have gotten away with sloppy play the past two weeks.  They only beat Arizona State 42-28 as 34-point favorites and Colorado 48-41 as 22-point favorites.  They failed to cover those two spreads by a combined 35 points, and they are once again getting too much respect here against Arizona as 22-point favorites.

Arizona could easily be 5-0 this season.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS and have been very competitive in every game.  They only lost 31-24 (OT) at Mississippi State as 9-point dogs due to committing five turnovers.  They outgained Mississippi State 431 to 307, or by 124 total yards.  Then last week they gave Washington their stiffest test of the season, losing 31-24 as 19-point home underdogs.  If they can hang with Washington, they can certainly hang with USC.

Arizona starting QB Jayden deLaura is questionable for this one after sitting out last week, but I'm not concerned.  Backup Noah Fifita has actually been better than deLaura, completing 74.5% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also showing some mobility on the ground.  He played very well against stout Washington defense last week, and now he gets to take on a suspect USC defense.

USC allowed 28 points to San Jose State, 28 points to what was a previously dead Arizona State offense and then 41 points to Colorado last week.  This could be the best offense that USC has played all season with only Colorado in Arizona's ballpark.  And we've seen USC's defense struggle to stop Arizona in recent meetings.

In fact, Arizona is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with USC losing by 8 as 14-point dogs, by 7 as 21.5-point dogs and by 4 as 17.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three meetings with USC.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by one score.  Don't be surprised if this one goes down to the wire as well.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+105)

Clayton Kershaw just keeps getting it done as one of the top starters in all of baseball.  Kershaw is 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He has been at his best at home, going 7-1 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Kershaw owns the Diamondbacks, who struggle against left-handed starters.  Kershaw is 23-12 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 45 career starts against Arizona.  Kershaw has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last eight home starts against the Diamondbacks.  In fact, the Dodgers are 13-0 in Kershaw's last 13 home starts against Arizona.

Merrill Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or more in six of his eight career road starts at Los Angeles.  He is 0-3 with a 12.27 ERA in his last four road starts against the Dodgers, allowing 20 earned runs and 41 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Iowa State OVER 52

Iowa State faced three weak offenses in Northern Iowa, Iowa and Ohio to start the season.  They went under the total in all three.  But the Cyclones have taken a big step up in class the past two weeks in opposing offenses, and we saw both games fly over the total.  Now they get another juggernaut offense Saturday in TCU and this total hasn't been adjusted up high enough.  There's clear value on the OVER.

Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 34-27 for 61 combined points two weeks ago.  Last week, Iowa State lost 50-20 to Oklahoma for 70 combined points.  This Cyclones defense has been exposed, but the offense has shown some life since pretty much abandoning the running game and spreading things out.  The Cyclones have been going with more 3-4 WR sets instead of 2 TE sets, and it has opened things up for the offense.

TCU ranks 3rd in the country in pace averaging just 20.9 seconds in between snaps.  That quick pace means more possessions for both teams and more points.  The Horned Frogs are averaging 34.8 points per game, 487 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on a ridiculous 79 plays per game on offense.  They allow 71 plays per game on defense due to playing so fast.

This 52-point total is very low when you look at the recent head-to-head history.  Indeed, the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 76, 62, 71 and 73 combined points, respectively.  It will be more of the same Saturday night when these two Big 12 rivals get together.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Fresno State/Wyoming UNDER 45.5

There will be double-digit winds at Wyoming Saturday night that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket.  Of course, both of these defenses are elite, which will also help.  And Wyoming has another terrible offense this season while Fresno State is down a couple notches from previous offenses.

Wyoming has done well to only allow 25.2 points per game, 385 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against a brutal schedule of opposing offenses that includes Texas Tech, Texas and Appalachian State.  The Cowboys are run-heavy again on offense this season averaging 36 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They average 325 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average allowing 396 yards per game and 6.1 per play, so they have been poor on offense.

Fresno State has played a very weak schedule of opposing defenses this season and averages just 5.8 yards per play against teams that allow 6.0 yards per play.  They have faces Purdue, Eastern Washington, Arizona State, Kent State and Nevada.  They are allowing 17.0 points per game, 282 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They have held their last three opponents to a total of 19 points and an average of 6.3 points per game.  And Nevada scored a TD in the final seconds last week or it would be even better.

Wyoming ranks 120th out of 133 teams in pace at 29.3 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Cowboys will dictate tempo here playing at home.  But it's not like Fresno plays fast as they rank 86th at 27.0 seconds in between snaps.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 30, 17, 30 and 20 combined points.  None of those four meetings even sniffed this 45.5-point total, and this one won't, either.  Wyoming is 20-6 UNDER in its last 26 home games after a game where 60 or more total combined points were scored.  Wyoming is 33-13 UNDER in its last 46 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Jeff Tedford is 7-0 UNDER in road games following three consecutive wins by 17 points or more as a head coach.  Craig Bohl is 10-2 UNDER game in October home games as the coach of Wyoming.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -1.5

Colorado State's 50-24 home loss in the opener has them undervalued.  The Rams are in Year 2 of Jay Norvell's system and it was going to take some time, but he's such a great coach he was going to get this program turned around.  And it turns out Washington State is very good as they are still unbeaten with wins over both Wisconsin and Oregon State as well.

Colorado State went on to take Colorado to OT an was unfortunate not to win that game outright as a 23-point underdog in a 43-35 defeat.  The Rams avoided the letdown the next week and went into Middle Tennessee and pulled off the 31-23 upset as 3.5-point road dogs.  The Rams then handled their business last week in a 41-20 win over Utah Tech.

A big reason for the Rams' resurgence is freshman QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi taking over for Clay Millen at quarterback.  Fowler-Nicolosi is completing 72.5% of his passes for 1,360 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.6 per attempt and only getting sacked four times.  He is running Norvell's system as efficiently as can be expected.

Utah State is in a terrible spot this week.  The Aggies are a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season, while the Rams have already had a bye.  They are coming off three straight difficult games with a 21-39 loss at Air Force, a 38-45 home loss to James Madison and a fortunate 34-33 win at UConn last week after the Huskies missed the potential tying extra point.  They had to travel clear across the country to face UConn last week and all the way back to Utah.  I can't help but think this is a tired team, especially after playing in those consecutive shootouts.

Colorado State has played the tougher schedule thus far and has held up well, averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that average 6.1 yards per play.  Utah State is allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that only average 5.3 yards per play.  Utah State may also be without QB McCae Hillstead, who exited last game with a concussion and is questionable to return this week.  Backup Cooper Legas isn't as good and is more of a running QB than a passing QB and easier to defend.

Norvell is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games following two consecutive games with 40 or more pass attempts as a head coach.  Blake Anderson is 3-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better as a head coach.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Georgia SEC No-Brainer on Kentucky +14.5

I faded Georgia in the first two games of the season with success assuming they'd be flat coming off back-to-back national titles.  My biggest regret this college football season is not continuing to fade them.  I won't make that mistake this week now that they are playing the best opponent they have all season.

Georgia is 0-4-1 ATS this season.  The Bulldogs have remained flat and are going through the motions.  Of course, they also lost a ton of talent from last year's national title team.  The offense has taken a big step back and the defense isn't nearly as dominant as it was a year ago.

Georgia trailed South Carolina 14-3 at halftime at home in Week 3 and failed to cover as 26-point favorites in a 10-point win.  The Bulldogs only beat UAB by 28 at home as 40-point favorites the next week, and last week they needed a late TD at Auburn just to escape with a victory in a 27-20 win as 14-point favorites.

Now the Bulldogs have to face Kentucky, who is clearly the 2nd-best team in the SEC East at worst this season.  The Wildcats are 5-0 this season with all five victories coming by 11 points or more.  None was more impressive than last week's 33-14 home win over Florida.  The Wildcats rushed for 329 yards on a good Florida defense, and they are physical enough to match Georgia in this one.

Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Georgia, and this may be one of the best teams in Kentucky history, while the last two editions of Georgia were arguably their two best teams in Georgia history.  Kentucky only lost 16-6 as 22.5-point home dogs last year, 30-13 as 21.5-point road dogs in 2021, 14-3 as 17-point home dogs in 2020 and 21-0 as 24-point road dogs in 2019.

Kentucky has shown it has the defense to hold Georgia in check, which will be the case again this season.  But the Wildcats have their best offense of the Mark Stoops era and can score on this Georgia defense, which allowed 219 rushing yards to Auburn last week.  Georgia hasn't rushed for more than 189 yards in any game this season despite the soft schedule, so Kentucky can contain them on the ground.  Kentucky is averaging 7.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the entire county.

In fact, I think Kentucky wins the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.  The Wildcats average 6.5 yards per carry on offense and give up just 2.5 yards per carry on defense.  Compare that to Georgia, which averages 4.4 yards per carry on offense and allows 4.0 yards per carry on defense, and you'd be surprised to see the team outgaining their opponents by 4.0 yards per carry as a 14.5-point underdog to the team that is only outgaining their opponents by 0.4 yards per carry.  That just shows Georgia being overvalued due to the name on their jerseys after winning consecutive national titles.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Georgia UNDER 49

A quick look at the recent head-to-head history between Kentucky and Georgia and it's easy to see there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 22, 43, 17 and 21 combined points.  This total of 49 is set way too high given the head-to-head history.

Georgia's offense is down this season and Kentucky's offense isn't as good as it was expected to be with Devin Leary at quarterback.  Leary is only completing 57.7% of his passes this season despite facing a soft schedule.  Kentucky has relied on its ground game and just posted 329 yards on the ground against Florida last week.

Kentucky knows they can run the ball on Georgia but won't have much success throwing it considering the Bulldogs only give up 4.7 yards per attempt.  And they know their best chance of being competitive is to limit the possessions and slow the game down to a snail's pace, which is what they do every year against Georgia to stay competitive and it's why they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Kentucky ranks 123rd out of 133 teams in pace this season averaging 29.6 seconds in between plays.  Georgia ranks 96th at 27.6 seconds, so they like to play slow too.

Georgia allowed 219 rushing yards to Auburn last week and gives up 4.0 per carry this season.  That's a far cry from Georgia defenses of the past two years when they won national titles.  And they have played a very soft schedule thus far.  They were held to 24 points by a bad South Carolina defense and needed a late TD to get to 27 against Auburn last week.

Kentucky will be the best defense Georgia has faced yet, and vice versa.  The Wildcats only allow 15.2 points per game, 297 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  The Wildcats have been very good against the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per play.

I haven't even mentioned the weather yet.  There are expected to be 17 MPH winds Saturday at Georgia, so both teams will be looking to keep it on the ground if they weren't already.  Kentucky is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 9-0 UNDER in their last nine games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  

Kentucky is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 road games vs. teams that average 32 or more possessions minutes and 21 or more first downs per game.  Stoops is 10-1 UNDER in road games following a conference home win as the coach of Kentucky.  Kirby Smart is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Georgia.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +185

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing great value as nearly 2-to-1 underdogs to the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of this series Saturday.  Ranger Suarez has done his best work on the road this season with a 2.75 ERA in 10 road starts and only 4 homers allowed in 59 innings.

Few starters have had as much success against the Braves as Suarez has.  He is 1-2 with a 2.90 ERA in eight career starts against them.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings in his last five starts against Atlanta for a 1.03 ERA.

I have very little negative to stay about Spencer Strider other than he is just too big of a favorite here over Suarez.  He did allow 3 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start against the Phillies on September 19th.  Strider also faltered down the stretch with a 5.09 ERA in his final three starts of the season despite facing Washington twice.

Philadelphia is 7-0 in its last seven road games when playing the 1st game of a playoff series.  Suarez's teams are 6-0 (+8.2 Units) in his six career playoff starts.  Bet the Phillies Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kent State/Ohio UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Kent State and Ohio.  There are expected to be 18 MPH winds with a 25% chance of rain and temps in the 50's Saturday afternoon at Peden Stadium.  Of course, Kent State's woeful offense up against Ohio's elite defense is another reason to be on the UNDER in this one.

Ohio is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Bobcats are only scoring 21.0 points per game and average 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have one of the very best defenses in the country, allowing just 10.8 points per game, 237 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play defensively.  On top of that, the Bobcats rank 119th out of 133 teams in pace, averaging 29.2 seconds in between snaps.

Kent State also likes to play slow this season, ranking 80th out of 133 teams at 26.7 seconds in between snaps.  That's notable because Kent State has been trailing in every game other than its 38-10 win over FCS Central Connecticut State.  The Golden Flashes managed just 6 points against UCF, 6 points against Arkansas, 10 points against Fresno and 3 points against Miami Ohio in their four other games.  

It's a terrible Kent State offense averaging 12.6 points per game, 268.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  But this Kent State defense has been better than expected.  They held Arkansas to 28 points and 308 total yards and Miami Ohio to 23 points and 292 total yards.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Army -3

I love the spot for Army this week and hate the spot for Boston College.  It's a good spot for Army because they are coming off a bye week.  They are very close to being 4-0 this season, blowing a late 10-point lead in the opener to UL-Monroe and blowing a 10-3 halftime lead at Syracuse for their two losses.  I think the Black Knights would be laying more than 3 if they won both of those games, so we are getting them at a discount.

It's a bad spot for Boston College because they are coming off a big come-from-behind victory to beat Virginia 27-24 last week.  That came after losing by 2 to Florida State and giving up 56 points in a 28-point loss at Louisville.  So they have played three straight ACC games, and now they step out of conference this week before returning to conference play next week against Georgia Tech.  This is a natural letdown spot for the Eagles, who are also gassed at this point.  The last thing they want to do is try to stop Army's triple-option, which is no fun for opposing defenses.

Boston College is going to be without second-leading receiver Ryan O'Keefe, who left last game with a neck injury.  He has 23 receptions for 235 yards and a touchdown for the Eagles this season.  They could also be without top RB Kye Robichaux, who has rushed for 206 yards and two touchdowns this season.  He sat out last game and is questionable to play Army Saturday.

I think the fact that Boston College came back against Florida State a few weeks ago and made a game of it is giving them more credit than they deserve.  That was the only game they covered the spread all season as they are 1-4 ATS.  The Eagles lost outright as 8-point home favorites to Northern Illinois and barely beat FCS Holy Cross 31-28 as a 10.5-point favorite.

Boston College is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Jeff Hafley is 0-7 ATS in road games on turf as the coach of Boston College.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Wisconsin UNDER 44.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Rutgers and Wisconsin Saturday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 40's with 18 MPH crosswinds at Camp Randall Stadium.  Both teams are going to be looking to keep the ball on the ground in this one, and that's going to keep the clock moving and favor this UNDER bet.

Of course, both teams already are run-heavy.  Rutgers averages 41 rush attempts per game compared to 22 passing, while Wisconsin averages 37 rush attempts per game compared to 32 passing.  Both teams are elite against the run.  Rutgers only allows 99 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry, while Wisconsin allows 117 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

A big reason for Rutgers' resurgence this season is defense as they allow 12.8 points per game, 268 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  Wisconsin only allows 19.8 points per game despite facing a tough schedule of opposing offenses that includes Washington State, Purdue and Georgia Southern.

Rutgers ranks 128th out of 133 teams in pace at 30.6 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Scarlet Knights will try to slow this one down and limit possessions as well.  Wisconsin has been going a little faster than normal this season ranking 50th, but I don't expect that to be the case Saturday given the weather conditions.

Rutgers are 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games, including 7-0 UNDER In its last seven road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  Rutgers is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine road games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER 43.5

The forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER 43.5 between Nebraska and Illinois Friday.  Temps will be in the 50's with greater than 20 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.  The heavy winds are going to force both teams to keep the ball on the ground, which is going to keep the clock moving.  Both teams prefer to run the ball anyway.

Nebraska averages just 18.8 points per game this season.  The Huskers average 38 rush attempts compared to 22 pass attempts per game.  Illinois averages 21.6 points per game this season.  The Fighting Illini average 33 rush attempts and 33 pass attempts per game.  Nebraska ranks 114th out of 133 teams in pace, averaging 28.7 seconds in between plays.  They will slow this thing down to a snail's pace.

Last year, Illinois won 26-9 at Nebraska for just 35 combined points.  The Fighting Illini held the Huskers to just 250 total yards and forced four turnovers.  Nebraska held Illinois to 369 total yards and has a great defense this season, allowing just 325.6 yards per game and 4.8 per play.  Illinois could be without star RB Reggie Love III, who sat out their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable.

The UNDER is 19-9 in Bret Bielema's 28 games at Illinois. Matt Rhule is 15-5 UNDER after a game where they forced no turnovers as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Nebraska/Illinois FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +3.5

The forecast is a big reason I'm on Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois Friday.  Temps will be in the 50's with greater than 20 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.  The heavy winds are going to force both teams to keep the ball on the ground, which is going to favor the Cornhuskers.

Illinois could be without star RB Reggie Love III, who sat out their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable.  They lost that game 44-19 at Purdue, which has lost at home to Fresno State and Syracuse, so that loss looks even worse now.

It's a good 'buy low' spot on Nebraska coming off a 45-7 loss to Michigan.  The Wolverines just played keepaway in that game and their stout run defense caused Nebraska problems.  It wasn't as lopsided as the final score as Michigan only outgained Nebraska by 131 yards.  Michigan averaged 5.9 yards per play compared to 6.6 yards per play for Nebraska.

Illinois only beat Toledo by 2 at home and FAU by 6 at home for its two wins this season en route to a 2-3 start.  The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 10.4 points per game.  They have been grossly overvalued after a great season last year, but they lost a ton of talent from that team and aren't close to that team.

Since both teams are going to have to keep the ball on the ground, the matchup favors Nebraska.  The Huskers average 209 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Illinois averages 144 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Nebraska only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry, while Illinois allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.

Nebraska is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after having fewer than 26 possessions minutes and fewer than 13 first downs last game.  Illinois is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Rhule is a perfect 8-0 ATS all-time after failing to cover the spread in three of his last four games as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

20* Bears/Commanders NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night when the Chicago Bears visit the Washington Commanders.  The weather looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's and only 5 MPH winds.  These two defenses will make these two offenses look like two of the best in the NFL tonight.

The Bears have lost 14 consecutive games while allowing at least 25 points in all 14 games for the first time in NFL history.  The Bears came into the season with the least-talented defense in the NFL, and injuries have made them even worse.  They are allowing 34.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.

Washington has allowed at least 33 points in three consecutive games.  The Commanders are allowing 30.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  Both defenses are tired as well as the Bears blew a 28-7 lead to the Broncos last week with their defense on the field the entire second half, and the Commanders going to OT with the Eagles.  The effect is maximized with this being a short week on Thursday Night Football.

Justin Fields is coming off his best game of the season and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after blowing that lead to the Broncos last week.  He led the Bears to 471 total yards.  Fields went 28-of-35 passing for 335 yards with four touchdowns and two turnovers.  His elusiveness will be huge against this Washington defensive line, which is the strength of their defense.  Washington's secondary is not good.

The Commanders have scored 31 and 35 points in two of their last three games coming in.  Sam Howell went 29-of-41 for 290 yards with one touchdown and no picks against a very good Philadelphia defense last week.  He is also elusive, rushing for 40 yards on six carries against the Eagles as well.  He has been one of the better young quarterbacks in the league this season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Bears last 15 games overall dating back to last season, including 4-0 this season.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in 13 of those 15 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* WKU/LA Tech ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +6.5

Western Kentucky is 3-0 at home this season with wins over South Florida, Houston Baptist and Middle Tennessee.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Hilltoppers.  They lost 63-10 at Ohio State and 27-24 at Troy in a misleading final.  They were outgained 288 to 521 by the Trojans, or by 233 total yards.

Louisiana Tech is 3-3 this season including 2-1 at home with their lone loss coming by 3 points to North Texas in overtime.  They won 24-10 on the road at UTEP last week.  They were also competitive in a 28-14 road loss at Nebraska with their only real blowout loss coming on the road at SMU.  I expect them to be in this game for four quarters against an overrated Western Kentucky team.

I love the numbers LA Tech has posted this season on a yards per play basis, which is arguably the most important stat in all of college football.  LA Tech averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows just 5.3 yards per play on defense.  Compare that to Western Kentucky, which averages 5.6 yards per play on offense and allows 6.3 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see why I'm on the home underdog here.

The weakness of the Bulldogs is their run defense, which is allowing 226 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The strength of the Bulldogs is their pass defense, which is allowing just 152 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for them considering Western Kentucky has no running game and relies heavily on its passing attack.  The Hilltoppers only average 97 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry compared to 286 passing yards per game and 6.5 per attempt.

Louisiana Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a road game.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Tech) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent with two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Louisiana Tech Thursday.

25* MLB Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Rays -149

The Tampa Bay Rays lost Game 1 of this series thanks in large part to 4 errors on defense and an absolute gem of a game from Texas starter Jordan Montgomery.  Look for them to bounce back with a much better effort at the plate and defensively in Game 2 to square this series today.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound in this one behind Zach Eflin, who is 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Eflin has been at his best at home, going 11-4 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 18 home starts this season, and the Rays are 14-4 in those 18 home starts.

Nathan Eovaldi has been an absolute gas can for the Rangers since returning from injury on September 5th as he clearly hasn't been right.  Unfortunately, with DeGrom, Scherzer and Gray out, he has been forced back into action.  Eovaldi is 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA in his last six starts, allowing 21 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 1/3 innings while not making it past the 5th inning in any start.  He won't go deep into this one, and Tampa Bay will get into this shaky Texas bullpen early as a result.

The Rays are 23-7 (+11.1 Units) in Eflin's 30 starts as a favorite this season, and 12-3 (+8.1 Units) in his 15 starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  It's bounce back time for the home team in Game 2 today.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* MLB Playoffs Opener on Tampa Bay Rays -146

The Texas Rangers blew the AL West on the final day of the regular season.  Now they have to play in the wild card round, which is a big disadvantage as opposed to getting a bye to the next round like the Houston Astros did.  I think they are shook after getting shut out 1-0 by the Mariners on Sunday, who had nothing to play for.

In fact, the Rangers have been really struggling at the plate of late.  They have scored 0, 0 and 2 runs in three of their last four games coming in with the AL West on the line.  They choked to close out the season losing three of four at Seattle, and they aren't ready for this big-time spot here.  It will be the Rangers' first time in the postseason since 2016.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been here and done that.  They are used to going to playoffs, and this spot will not be intimidating to them like it will be for the Rangers.  The Rays have been playing stress-free baseball for a few games now locked into the 4th seed in the AL.

I also believe the Rays have a big advantage on the mound in Game 1 of this series.  Tyler Glasnow is 10-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Glasnow owns the Rangers, going 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA and 0.559 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing just one earned run and 11 base runners in 19 2/3 innings with 26 K's.  Jordan Montgomery does not enjoy facing the Rays, going 4-4 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Tampa Bay.  

The Rays are hitting .279 and scoring 6.0 runs per game vs. left-handed starters like Montgomery this season.  Montgomery's teams are 1-11 in his 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game this season.  Tampa Bay is 20-4 vs. poor base running teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game this season.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* Seahawks/Giants NFC No-Brainer on UNDER 48

Night game UNDERS are 148-97-3 (60.4%) since 2019.  Night game UNDERS are 9-2 to start this season heading into Week 4.  This total is too high for a game involving the New York Giants, who have a solid defense but a terrible offense, especially without their best offensive player in Saquon Barkley.

The Giants were shut out in the opener by the Cowboys and managed just 171 total yards.  You can throw out the Arizona game because Arizona's defense is terrible, and they had Barkley for the entire game.  And last week they managed just 12 points and 150 total yards against the 49ers.  Again, this total is too high for a game involving this Giants offense.

No question the Seahawks have put up great offensive numbers the last two weeks against Detroit and Carolina, which is inflating this total.  But both of those teams were missing key players defensively.  They managed just 13 points and 180 total yards against the Rams in Week 1.  This is a much better, hungrier Giants defense they will be up against Monday night.

The Seahawks are better defensively than they have shown thus far.  Being without both SS Jamal Adams and CB Riq Woolen is a big reason why they have struggled.  Both are expected back this week, which is a huge help to the defense.  Adams is the leader of this defense and hasn't played yet this year.  Having him back will be a game changer for them.  Also, taking a step down in class here against this Giants offense will help as well.

These teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 27-13 for just 40 combined points.  Pete Carroll is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle.  The Giants are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games as home underdogs.  New York is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games following an ATS loss.  Seattle is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play.  The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Giants last 22 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/49ers OVER 44

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are rolling on offense once again this season.  They have scored at least 30 points in each of their first three games this season and I expect them to make it four straight against the lowly Arizona Cardinals to pave the way for us to cash this OVER 44 ticket.  They are also averaging 399 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season and have been able to take their foot off the gas in the second half as well, or the numbers could be even better.

I don't expect them to take the Cardinals lightly or take their foot off the gas this week.  The 49ers have extra rest after playing last Thursday, and they just saw the Cardinals upset the Cowboys last week in a fluky result in which the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone.  It was still good enough for me to cash my OVER 43 ticket in that game as the Cardinals won 28-16, but there should have been more points from the Cowboys.

The Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a terrible defense that allowed 31 points to the Giants the week prior.  The Giants were shut out by the Cowboys and managed just 12 points against the 49ers in their other two games just to show how bad this Arizona defense is.  Dallas had 416 total yards on the Cardinals last week but only 16 points because of those red zone woes.

While the 49ers will be able to name their number on this soft, banged-up Arizona defense, I do expect the Cardinals to be able to score some points on this San Francisco defense.  This is an underrated Arizona offense that put up 28 points on the Giants and another 28 on the Cowboys the last two weeks.  They also had 379 yards on the Giants and 400 yards on the Cowboys.  

Josh Dobbs is elusive and has good weapons, and this offensive line is playing well behind him, especially in the running game paving the way for 151 yards on the ground against the Giants and 222 yards on the ground against the Cowboys.  The 49ers haven't had to face a very mobile QB yet as they faced Kenny Pickett, Matt Stafford and Daniel Jones, and they haven't faced a good rushing attack either, which has allowed them to pin their ears back and get after the QB.  They will have to respect Arizona's running game, which should open things up for Dobbs in the passing game.

The last three meetings in this series were all shootouts that topped this 44-point total.  The 49ers won 38-13 for 51 combined points, 38-10 for 43 combined points and were upset 31-17 for 48 combined points in their first game against Arizona last year.  But Brock Purdy didn't play in those first two games, and he threw 3 TD in the most recent meeting.  Arizona started played David Blough/McSorley in the most recent meeting, Colt McCoy/McSorley in the second and McCoy in the first.  So the 49ers haven't had to face a QB as good as Dobbs in any of their last three meetings with the Cardinals.  I expect Arizona to get 14-plus in this one.

These teams have combined for at least 44 points in six of the last eight meetings and it should be more of the same here in their first meeting of 2023. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bills OVER 53.5

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They beat the Chargers 36-34 in the opener for 70 combined points.  In Week 2 they beat the Patriots 24-17 in sloppy conditions in a slow-paced game.  And last week they hung a 70-spot on the Broncos in a 70-20 victory for 90 combined points.  They didn't even have Jaylen Waddle last week, and he is expected to return this week to give the Dolphins the best 1-2 punch in the league at receiver with him and Tyreke Hill.

This is actually a pretty low total for a game involving the Dolphins.  They have the best offense in the NFL and a bad defense.  The Bills appear to have a good defense, but keep in mind they have played an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks.  They faced Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 1, Jimmy G and the Raiders in Week 2 and Sam Howell and the Commanders in Week 3.

This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense, which is missing Von Miller and will get exposed this week.  S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde and DE Leonard Floyd all missed practice Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week as well.  The Bills aren't going to stop the Dolphins, but they can match them score for score with their potent offense.

After being held in check in Week 1 by the Jets, who always have a good game plan for them, the Bills' true offensive colors have shown the past two weeks.  They hung 38 points on the Raiders with 183 rushing and 267 passing yards, and last week they hung 37 points on the Commanders with 168 rushing and 218 passing.  They finally appear to have a very good rushing attack this season to compliment Josh Allen and the passing game.

The last two meetings in Buffalo were absolute shootouts.  Buffalo won 32-29 in the regular season finale for 61 combined points and put up 446 total yards on the Dolphins, who came through with 405 themselves in a game started and finished by Tua.  But Tua was hurt in the matchup in the playoffs, and it was still a shootout in a 34-31 victory by the Bills, who had 423 total yards on the Dolphins.  They clearly have this Miami defense figured out as they went for 497 total yards on the Dolphins on the road last season as well.

Conditions look perfect in Buffalo for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and only 6 MPH winds at Highmark Stadium.  Miami is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game.  Sean McDermott is 12-3 OVER in home games after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards last game as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Falcons/Jaguars NFL London No-Brainer on Jacksonville -3

This feels like a great spot to back the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.  They are coming off two consecutive losses, so they will be focused and ready to go in London.  I also like the fact that they play in London every year, so this is essentially a home game for them.  Fans have adopted this team like their own so it will feel like a home game as well.

The Jaguars were beaten by the Chiefs 17-9 at home two weeks ago.  They just failed in the red zone time after time and couldn't get anything going.  But last week's 20-point home loss to Houston provides us with an opportunity to 'buy low' on the Jaguars this week.  Now everyone is writing them off, which is exactly the time I like to back teams in the NFL.

Especially teams like the Jaguars who have a lot of talent and are better than the last score showed.  The 20-point loss to Houston was very misleading.  They actually outgained the Texans by 38 yards and had 404 total yards of offense, but only 17 points to show for it.  They gave up an 85-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to a fullback, which was absolutely insane.

Now the Jaguars get to face the Falcons, who are overvalued due to their 2-1 start this season.  They beat the Panthers in the opener, who look like one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They came back from 12 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Packers at home in Week 2.  The Packers were missing several key players in that game.  Then in their first road game of the season, the Falcons were blasted 20-6 on the road by the Lions.

There was nothing misleading about that loss to the Lions.  They were outgained by 175 yards by the Lions.  Their offense was held to just 183 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.  They are a one-dimensional running team with arguably the worst QB situation in the entire league with Desmond Ridder.  He is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt this season with two touchdowns and one interception.  He just doesn't threaten opposing defenses with the downfield passes.

That makes this a great matchup for the Jaguars.  While they have been susceptible against the pass defensively this season, they have been great against the run.  The Jaguars are only allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry this season.  They will be able to bottle up the run just like Detroit did, and that will be the key to them getting the win and cover here against the Falcons.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday morning.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Royals OVER 9

Temps will be in the 80's with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center in Kansas City tonight.  Conditions were similar last night, and I took advantage and backed the OVER 9 in a 12-5 victory and 17 combined runs.  I'm back on the OVER 9 in Game 2 today.

Clarke Schmidt is 9-9 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.341 WHIP in 31 starts this season for the Yankees.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 5-3 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  Schmidt allowed 3 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against Kansas City this season.

The Royals are going to make this a bullpen game after opening with Steven Cruz.  They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.27 ERA and 1.485 WHIP on the season, including a 5.34 ERA and 1.545 WHIP at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +20.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued now after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They had no business covering two of those games.  They only led SMU 14-11 as 16-point favorites with with under 10 minutes left but scored two more touchdowns to win 28-11.  They were actually outgained by SMU.  SMU lost 34-17 at TCU last week.

Then last week Oklahoma beat Cincinnati 20-6 as 13-point road favorites.  That was another big misleading final as Cincinnati turned it over twice in the red zone.  They only outgained Cincinnati by 49 yards and gave up 376 yards to a bad Bearcats offense.  I do think their defensive is improved, but their offense isn't as good as the numbers because they padded their stats against Tulsa and Arkansas State, but struggled to score against SMU and Cincinnati.

Not only are the Sooners overvalued, but they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Texas in the Red River Rivalry that will go a long way in determining not only if they win the Big 12, but also if they can contend for a national title.  This is a sandwich spot coming off a big road win at Cincinnati in their Big 12 opener as well.  They probably just think they have to show up to win against Iowa State.

That won't be the case.  Iowa State could easily be 4-0 this season when you look at the box scores of their games, but they are 2-2 and undervalued as a result.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 16.5 points per game, 299 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through three games.  Their defense could be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 4-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Then last week I backed Iowa State -2.5 in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.  I liked what I saw from their offense as they abandoned the running game early, spread their receivers out with less two TE sets, and let Becht go to work.  It worked as Becht had his best game of the season, completing 27 of 38 passes for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception.  It also opened up the running game in the second half for them to salt the game away.  The change of offensive philosophy is a big reason I'm 'buying' on the Cyclones moving forward.  They are great in pass protection as Becht has only been sacked once all season, so they are playing to their strengths.

Nobody has played Oklahoma tougher than Iowa State in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  And even that 14-point loss last year was very misleading.  Iowa State actually outgained Oklahoma 374 to 332 for the game.  They have outgained Oklahoma in four consecutive meetings, and haven't been outgained by more than 72 yards in any of their last seven meetings.  

Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog as the coach of Iowa State, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or more.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State -1

Everyone keeps sleeping on Georgia State.  I backed them heavily as 7-point road dogs at Coastal Carolina last week and they delivered with a 30-17 victory.  I'll back them again here as they should be much more than 1-point favorites against Troy.

Georgia State is 4-0 this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, beating UConn by 21 at home, Charlotte by 16 on the road and Coastal by 30 on the road.  Charlotte only lost by 15 at Florida and Coastal only lost by 14 at UCLA.  So those wins have more credence now than they did before.

Georgia State's offense has tremendous balance averaging 37.0 points per game, 196 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  They have one of the best QB's in the Sun Belt in Darren Grainger, who is completing 70% of his passes for 994 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 9.5 per attempt.  Grainger is a dual-threat who has rushed for 263 yards, 3 TD and 5.6 per carry.

I love the spot for Georgia State, too.  They have two extra days of rest coming into this one after playing last Thursday.  This is a night game at 7:00 EST and fans are getting behind this team knowing they have a real shot of winning the Sun Belt and doing big things this year.  Plus, there will be no letdown facing the defending Sun Belt champs in Troy.  They will be max-motivated and give their best effort.

Troy has been overvalued since winning the Sun Belt last year.  They brought back just 12 starters from that team and lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.  Troy gave up 30 points to Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite in the opener.  Troy gave up 42 points at Kansas State in a 29-point loss.  They are now 0-4 ATS this season and getting way too much respect from the books again this week.

Georgia State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Shawn Elliott is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Georgia State.  Elliott is 12-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Georgia State.  He is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Hawaii +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UNLV after a 3-1 start to the season.  The win over UTEP last week doesn't look very good now as UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country.  The 44-14 win over Bryant in the opener was very misleading as they were actually outgained by 15 yards by Bryant.

These teams have a common opponent in Vanderbilt.  UNLV beat Vanderbilt 40-37 at home and took advantage of four turnovers by the Commodores and getting outgained by 17 yards.  Meanwhile, Hawaii lost 35-28 on the road to Vanderbilt and should have won that game outright.  Hawaii outgained Vanderbilt by 94 yards in that game and held them to just 297 total yards.

This has been a very closely-contested series, so I'm more than happy to take double-digits with the Rainbow Warriors.  Only twice in the last 11 meetings has Hawaii lost by more than 8 points to UNLV.  The Rebels are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three games coming in.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Hawaii) - off two or more consecutive unders who are also outscored by 7 or more points per game on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +14

Wyoming is off to a surprising 3-1 start this season.  But the Cowboys should be 1-3 when you dive into the box scores a little deeper, and they just haven't been that good.  This fraudulent 3-1 record has Wyoming laying more points to New Mexico today than they should be.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 (OT) in the opener despite being down 17-0 and getting outgained by 111 yards.  They only managed 320 yards on offense.  They had a bit of a letdown the next week against Portland State, winning 31-17 as 28-point favorites despite getting outgained by 27 yards and being held to 344 total yards.  They were held to 291 yards in their 31-10 loss to Texas.  And last week was the most misleading of all, beating Appalachian State 22-19 despite being held to 208 total yards and getting outgained by 209 yards.

As you can see, Wyoming has a terrible offense again this season averaging just 297.5 yards per game. That woeful offense makes it very difficult for them to cover these lofty spreads as favorites.  The Cowboys are much better in the underdog role than they are in the favorite role, especially in the big favorite role.

New Mexico has the best offense they have had in years.  They are scoring 29.3 points per game and averaging 384.5 yards per game this season.  They have opened 2-2 with wins over Tennessee Tech and UMass and losses to Texas A&M and New Mexico State, but they were very competitive against NMSU with 401 yards on offense compared to 397 for NMSU.

The Cowboys were flat against Portland State after beating Texas Tech.  I think they'll be flat again today after beating Appalachian State and with MWC defending champ Fresno State on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  New Mexico has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB TOTAL OF THE DAY on New Mexico/Wyoming UNDER 42.5

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds at Wyoming today that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 42.5 ticket.  These are two teams with bad offenses and good defenses, which is the case every year in this rivalry.  That's why these games tend to go UNDER the total when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Wyoming and New Mexico, but would be 5-0 with a 42.5-point total.  They have combined for 41, 17, 33, 33 and 34 points in their last five meetings, respectively.

Wyoming plays slow ranking 117th out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 29.0 seconds in between plays.  New Mexico ranks 111th at 28.7 seconds in between offensive snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which also bodes well for the UNDER in limiting possessions.

Wyoming is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games following a win.  New Mexico is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games after going over the total in its previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Texas Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +17

Texas is overvalued after a 4-0 start that included an upset win at Alabama.  Turns out Alabama isn't that good this year as they only beat South Florida 17-3.  We saw Texas overvalued in the opener against Rice in a 37-10 win as 35.5-point favorites.  We backed Rice and then Wyoming +30 off the Alabama win.  That was a 10-10 game in the 4th quarter before Texas pulled away for a misleading 31-10 victory.

Admittedly, I was wrong last week in backing Baylor against Texas.  But that 38-6 final was very misleading.  Baylor actually threw for 305 yards on Texas and should have scored more than 6 points.  That misleading final is providing us line value on Kansas this week.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Texas this week is because they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Oklahoma.  That Red River Rivalry will likely determine which team is the favorite to win not only the Big 12, but to also compete for a national title.  The Longhorns could easily be caught overlooking Kansas and looking ahead to Oklahoma, especially after burying Kansas on the road last year.

But that was a rare easy win for Texas in this series.  Kansas pulled the 57-56 upset win as 31-point dogs in 2021, only lost 50-48 as 21-point road dogs in 2019, lost 24-17 as 16-point dogs in 2018, lost 42-27 as 31.5-point dogs in 2017 and won 24-21 as 23.5-point dogs in 2016.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, so we are getting great value here on Kansas +17 given the awful spot for Texas.

Plus, this is the best team Kansas has had this century.  Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  Getting Kansas to a bowl last year was a monumental feat, and now the Jayhawks are hungry for more.  They have opened 4-0 this season with a 31-point win over Missouri State, an 11-point win over Illinois, a 7-point win at Nevada and an 11-point win over BYU.  Leipold brought back 17 starters this season including a healthy QB in Jalon Daniels, who is completing 74.7% of his passes and is a great dual-threat.

Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games the week before Oklahoma. Texas 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a double-digit conference favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +18

Michigan has been way overvalued this season after making the four-team playoff.  They are 0-3-1 ATS despite playing a very weak schedule with four straight home games against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.  They were favored by 35.5 or more points in three of those four games and haven't even scored 35 points once.

A big reason Michigan isn't putting up big points this season is because they are the second-slowest team in the entire country.  They rank 132nd out of 133 teams in seconds in between plays at 32.3 seconds.  Now they face a Nebraska team that ranks 116th at 29.1 seconds in between offensive snaps.  That means there will be fewer possessions in this game, thus it really favors the underdog.

Nebraska has been undervalued since blowing the game last in a 13-10 loss at Minnesota.  They also were embarrassed on National TV at Colorado.  Now everyone has given up on this team.  Matt Rhule, the coaching staff and these players have Michigan right where they want them Saturday.  Everyone is overlooking them now, and with four games under their belts, they are starting to get familiar with Rhule's systems.

Nebraska bounced back from the Colorado loss with a dominant 35-11 victory over Northern Illinois as 11.5-point favorites.  They held NIU to just 149 total yards and have an elite defense that is capable of getting more stops than anyone else Michigan has faced thus far.  They also beat LA Tech 28-14 last week.  They were up 28-7 before a rain delay in the 4th quarter and gave up a TD after the delay to make the final score look closer than it was.

Nebraska has gone to Heinrich Haarberg at QB for the past two wins, and he has a lot of Tim Tebow in him.  He has thrown for 278 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, while also leading the team in rushing with 272 yards, two touchdowns and 6.5 per carry.  He gives them their best chance to be successful, and I love the run-heavy approach here against Michigan to shorten the game.

Rhule is 44-19 ATS in conference games as a head coach.  Rhule is 8-0 ATS in home games against a team that wins more than 75% of their games as a head coach.  Rhule is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more yards per attempt as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.