15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -114

The New York Yankees are showing excellent value as a small road favorite today as they look to take three out of four in this series from the Minnesota Twins.  They have the edge on the mound and at the plate in this one.

Hiroki Kuroda continues to get it done at a high level this season.  He has gone 5-6 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 17 starts, 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA in eight road starts, and 1-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last three starts.

Ricky Nolasco has had a terrible season in his first year with the Minnesota Twins.  The right-hander has gone 5-6 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in 17 starts.  He hasn't been able to reverse his fortunes of late, either, going 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in his last three outings.

Minnesota is 4-19 (-14.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.  The Yankees are 12-1 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season.  New York is 8-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Yankees are 39-14 in their last 53 meetings with the Twins.  Take the Yankees Sunday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks +140

The Atlanta Braves are way overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak heading into Game 2 of this series with the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Aaron Harang has no business being this heavy of a favorite today.

Harang has gone 7-6 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 17 starts this season, and he's way past his prime.  He has really struggled of late, going 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 2.056 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 37 base runners over 18 innings during this stretch.

Mike Bolsinger has held his own in limited action for the Diamondbacks.  The right-hander has gone 1-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.303 WHIP as a starter this year in seven outings.  He has shined in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over 20 innings of work.

Harang is 1-11 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is 10-4 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +161

The Philadelphia Phillies get the nod as a massive road underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates today.  Edinson Volquez, who has been one of the worst starters in the big leagues over the last few seasons, has no business being this heavily favored.

Volquez went 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA in 2011, 11-11 with a 4.14 ERA in 2012, and 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA in 2013.  He is 6-6 with a 4.07 ERA thus far in 2014, which has been a bit of an aberration.  Volquez is 59-58 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 170 starts and six relief appearances in his career.

David Buchanan hasn't been spectacular, but he has held his own in eight starts this season, going 4-4 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.381 WHIP.  Buchanan has really stepped it up of late, going 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his last three starts.  That includes one start at St. Louis where he allowed one earned run over 7 2/3 innings of a 4-1 Arizona victory.

Pittsburgh is a woeful 46-50 (-33.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.  The Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Pirates are 1-5 in Volquez's last six starts during game 2 of a series.  Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

15* NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati Reds -113

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory Friday when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this series.  They were just swept by the Padres last series, which leaves a sour taste in their mouths.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues this year, and he still isn't getting the respect he deserves.  Simon has gone 10-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 16 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in his last three.

Kyle Lohse has been solid this year for the Brewers, going 9-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 17 starts.  He has been at his worst away from home, posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 10 starts.

Simon is 7-0 (+7.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.  Simon is 12-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season.  Simon is 14-1 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.  These three trends combine for a 33-1 system backing Cincinnati.  Take the Reds Friday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -113

After dropping six of their last seven games overall, the San Francisco Giants head into this series with the San Diego Padres highly motivated for a victory.  I look for them to get the job done tonight due to that hunger, coupled with the edge they have on the mound.

Matt Cain is not having his best year, but he is very unlucky to have a 4.62 ERA on the despite despite a very solid 1.231 WHIP.  Cain sports a 3.19 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 33 career starts against the Padres, who are hitting just .214 and scoring 3.0 runs per game this season.

Hands down, Eric Stults has been one of the worst starters in the big leagues.  The left-hander has gone 2-11 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in 17 starts.  Stults has posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 17 career starts against San Francisco.  In his last start against the Giants on April 29, he allowed five earned runs over 2 2/3 innings of a 5-0 loss.

San Francisco is 18-1 (+17.1 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 0-6 in Stults' last six starts.  These two trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Giants.  Bet San Francisco Friday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays +168

The Tampa Bay Rays legitimately feel like they can still win the AL East despite being 11 games below .500.  After taking three out of four from Baltimore on the road, the Rays managed to sweep the Yankees in three games on the road last series.

This team really does have the belief that they can do it, which stems from manager Joe Maddon.  Erik Bedard gets the ball tonight.  The veteran left-hander has posted a respectable 4.21 ERA in 14 starts and one relief appearance this year.  Bedard is 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA in his last five starts against Detroit.

Max Scherzer is having another solid season for Detroit, going 9-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 17 starts.  However, he hasn't been nearly as dominant as last year, and he has struggled of late.  Indeed, Scherzer is 1-1 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay is 23-5 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in July games over the last two seasons.  The Rays are 4-1 in Bedard's last five starts overall.  I look for them to continue their momentum with another win tonight in Game 1 of this series at an excellent price.  Bet the Rays Thursday.

25* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Reds -128

After losing the first two games of this series, the Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight.  They send their ace to the mound to get the job done, and I'll gladly lay this small price for one of the best starters in the game.

Johnny Cueto has gone 8-5 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.829 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in eight road starts.  In his last start against the Padres on May 15th of this year, Cueto pitched a complete game shutout while allowing only five base runners in a 5-0 Cincinnati victory.

Tyson Ross is also having a solid season for San Diego, but he's no match for Cueto.  He has gone 6-8 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  Ross has struggled a bit of late, going 0-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

The Reds are 10-2 in their last 12 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  The Reds are 21-5 in Cueto's last 26 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Reds are 39-14 in Cueto's last 53 starts as a favorite.  The Padres are 0-5 in Ross' last 5 starts.  Ross is 3-14 (-10.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last three seasons.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -106

The Cincinnati Reds are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the San Diego Padres tonight.  The Reds had won five straight and eight of nine prior to a 1-0 loss at San Diego in Game 1 despite giving up just one measly hit the entire game.

The light-hitting Padres are setting records for attrition of late.  They are hitting just .210 and scoring 2.9 runs per game on the season.  They are hitting .115 with five runs scored over a 2-3 stretch.  San Diego has scored 20 runs while hitting .173 in its last 10 home games.

The Reds starting staff's .229 opponent average on the season is the lowest in baseball, while their 3.24 ERA ranks second.  Mike Leake (6-6, 3.41 ERA, 1.145 WHIP) gets the ball tonight.  The right-hander has posted a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts against San Diego, yielding just two earned runs and 18 base runners over 22 innings.

Ian Kennedy has not pitched all that well for San Diego this year, going 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA in 17 starts.  He is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in his last three outings as well.  Kennedy faced the Reds on May 15th this year, yielding five earned runs and 12 base runners in six innings to take the loss in a 5-0 defeat.

The Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in Leake's last four road starts.  The Padres are 5-12 in their last 17 games following a win.  San Diego is 1-11 in Kennedy's last 12 starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Marlins UNDER 7.5 (-111)

Miami plays in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the big leagues.  I look for these two light-hitting teams to struggle to score runs today against two of the more underrated starters in the big leagues.  The end result will be a low-scoring, pitcher's duel.

Philadelphia has scored three runs or fewer in eight of its last 10 games.  Its struggles at the plate will likely continue against Henderson Alvarez, who has gone 5-3 with a 2.32 ERA in 16 starts for the Marlins.  Alvarez is 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA in eight home starts to boot.  The right-hander is also 1-1 with a 2.02 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia.

A.J. Burnett continues to get it done since his shift to the National League a couple years ago.  The right-hander has gone 5-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 17 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 2.62 ERA in his last three.  Burnett has gone 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA in five career starts against Miami as well.

Miami is 19-4 UNDER (+14.2 Units) vs. poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.   The UNDER is 4-0 in Burnett's last four starts overall.  The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Phillies last 12 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Alvarez's last five home starts.  The UNDER is 8-2-4 in Alvarez's last 14 starts vs. NL East foes.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Miami.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +121

Great value here with the Arizona Diamondbacks as a road underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 of this series.  They should not be the dog tonight given the edge they will have on the mound and at the plate in this one.

Wade Miley has been at his best on the road this year, going 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in eight starts away from home.  The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in four career starts against the Pirates, who are hitting .247 and scoring 3.7 runs per game against southpaws in 2014.

Jeff Locke is getting too much respect from the books here.  The left-hander is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in five starts, including 0-1 with a 4.42 ERA in three home starts this year.  Locke has faced the Diamondbacks once in his career, and it was not pretty.  He gave up eight earned runs and 13 base runners over 2 2/3 innings of a 5-15 home loss to Arizona on August 17th of last year.

Pittsburgh is 1-10 (-9.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up one or more HR's/start this season.  The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in Mileys last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 7-2 in Miley's last nine starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Pirates are 1-5 in Locke's last six starts as a favorite.  Pittsburgh is 0-4 in its last four home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -119

The Kansas City Royals get the call Monday as a small road favorite over the Minnesota Twins.  They just cooled off one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Angels by taking two out of three last series, and now I look for them to take Game 1 of this series tonight.

Danny Duffy is one of the best young starters in the game.  The left-hander has gone 4-7 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.075 WHIP over 10 starts and six relief appearances this season.  He has posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in five road starts, and a 1.35 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Minnesota gives the ball to the little-known Yohan Pino, who has gone 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in two starts this season.  Duffy has posted a 2.93 ERA in three career starts against Minnesota.  In his only road start against the Twins, Duffy pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings to get the victory in an 8-1 win last year.

The Twins are 3-20 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 7-0 in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Kansas City is 5-0 in Duffy's last five road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 2-10 in their last 12 games as an underdog.  Minnesota is 29-74 in its last 103 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Bet the Royals Monday.

20* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado Rockies +161

The Colorado Rockies are showing excellent value Sunday.  I'll take advantage and back them against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers are off to a great start this season, but they clearly aren't as good as their record, and that will show in the second half.

Yovani Gallardo is also just an average starter who is getting too much respect from the books.  He has gone 5-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 16 starts this year.  However, Gallardo is 0-4 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.717 WHIP in eight career starts against Colorado.  Obviously, he has never beaten them.

Jorge De La Rosa has not put up great numbers this year, going 7-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in 15 starts and one relief appearance.  But I like his chances today against the Brewers, who are in line for a letdown after winning the first three games of this series.

De La Rosa is 19-6 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.  De La Rosa is 10-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.  De La Rosa is 19-2 (+18.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Rockies Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -127 (Game 2)

I'll back the Chicago Cubs at an excellent price in Game 2 of this series Saturday.  They take on the Washington Nationals, and regardless of what happens in Game 1 they are certainly worth playing in Game 2.

That's because they send out their ace in Jeff Samardzija, who is 2-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 16 starts, including 1-3 with a 1.63 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in eight home starts.  Samardzija is 2-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in four career starts against Washington as well.

While the Nationals do have a solid line-up, they are being put behind the eight ball tonight with Blake Treinen on the mound.  He is overvalued due to his 2.08 ERA on the season because his 1.452 WHIP does not match up.  Treinen has simply been lucky to not allow many earned runs with how many guys he is putting on base.

The Nationals are 17-40 in their last 57 games as a road underdog.  Washington is 0-4 in Treinen's last four starts.  The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 5-1 in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs in Game 2 Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +130

After losing Game 1 of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers, I look for the St. Louis Cardinals to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.  They are showing excellent value here as a +130 underdog, and we'll take advantage.

Carlos Martinez doesn't get the credit of the rest of the Cardinals starters, but he has held his own this year, going 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.259 WHIP.  That includes a 1-0 record with a 3.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP over the two starts that he has made this season.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been dominant for the Dodgers on the road this year, but it has been a completely different story at home.  Indeed, Ryu is 3-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six home starts in 2014.

St. Louis is a sensational 30-5 (+24.4 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-8 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.  The Dodgers are 10-23 in their last 33 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -153

Rarely do I lay this big of juice in baseball, but the Detroit Tigers are more than worth it tonight.  They should be at least a -200 favorite against the Houston Astros.  They come in playing their best baseball of the season having won seven straight while scoring at least five runs in each of their last six victories.

Justin Verlander is undervalued due to his slow start, but he allowed just one earned run and five base runners over seven innings in his last start against Cleveland, and I have no doubt he's going to be one of the best starters in the game from now through the end of the season.  Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in three career starts against Houston.

Brad Peacock is no match for Verlander.  He has gone 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.530 WHIP over 10 starts and four relief appearances in 2014.  Peacock is also 2-1 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in seven home starts this year.  He will have his hands full with this red-hot Detroit lineup.

Detroit is 8-0 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games with a well rested bullpen who did not throw an inning last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Tigers are 6-0 after allowing one run or less this season.  Detroit is 7-0 in its last seven road games.  The Astros are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Detroit.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* Cardinals/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis -116

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing excellent value tonight with ace Adam Wainwright on the mound.  Rarely will you get him at this kind of price, and we'll take advantage in Game 1 of this series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Wainwright is one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young award this season.  The right-hander has gone 10-3 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in 15 starts, including 6-2 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in nine road starts.  Wainwright has also posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in 12 career starts against Los Angeles.

Josh Beckett is having a career resurrection this year, but let's be honest, he's past his prime and it's an aberration up to this point.  He posted a 4.65 ERA in 2012 and a 5.19 ERA in 2013 prior to his 2.28 ERA thus far in 2014.  Beckett has gone 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in seven career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis is 22-6 (+16.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better over the last 2 seasons.  The Cardinals are 42-18 in Wainwright's last 60 starts.  St. Louis is 40-15 in Wainwright's last 55 starts as a favorite, including 20-6 in his last 26 starts as a road favorite.

The Dodgers are 2-10 in Beckett's last 12 starts during game 1 of a series.  Los Angeles is 1-7 in Beckett's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Dodgers are 7-15 in Beckett's last 22 starts overall.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -101

Off four straight losses, the New York Yankees will be highly motivated for a victory when they take on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 3 of this series Wednesday.  I look for them to put an end to this skid and avoid the sweep due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Hiroki Kuroda has gone 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  The right-hander has been at his best on the road, posting a 3.70 ERA in seven starts away from home.  Kuroda is 4-3 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in eight career starts against Toronto as well.

Drew Hutchison has been solid on the road this season, but he's 1-3 with an 8.73 ERA and 1.893 WHIP in five home starts.  In two starts against the Yankees in 2014, Hutchison has gone 0-2 with an 11.73 ERA, allowing 10 earned runs and 17 base runners over 7 2/3 innings.

New York is 9-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season.  The Yankees are 46-19 in their last 65 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.  Toronto is 0-5 in Hutchison's last five starts during game 3 of a series.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -104

The St. Louis Cardinals have won three straight and eight of their last 11 overall to make up some serious ground on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central Division.  Meanwhile, the Rockies have lost seven in a row after falling 0-8 to the Cardinals last night.  They have given up a combined 54 runs during this seven-game skid.

The pitching woes are likely to continue for the Rockies tonight with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 6-6 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.351 WHIP this season, including 0-2 with a 10.81 ERA and 2.230 WHIP in his last three starts.  De La Rosa has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in eight career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals give the ball to Shelby Miller, who has been at his best on the road this season.  Indeed, the right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in seven road starts, and he's 1-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.985 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Miller pitched a one-hit shutout while striking out 13 in his lone career start against Colorado last season.

The Rockies are 1-10 (-10.3 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games this season.  Colorado is 7-20 in its last 27 vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rockies are 0-7 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 18-7 in its last 25 meetings with Colorado.  Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +104

The Washington Nationals should not be an underdog in this contest against the Milwaukee Brewers.  They have won three straight behind dominant pitching, allowing just one run in their last three games overall.  They have the edge on the mound in this one as well.

Since he entered the league, Jordan Zimmerman has been one of the most underrated starters in the game.  The right-hander has gone 5-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 15 starts this season, 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in six road starts, and 1-2 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.583 WHIP in his last three starts.

Yovani Gallardo has had a nice season for the Brewers at 5-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 15 starts.  However, Gallardo is 3-3 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.569 WHIP in eight career starts against Washington.  He has yielded 17 earned runs over 13 innings in his last three starts against the Nationals.

Meanwhile, Zimmerman is 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee.  He has never lost to the Brewers, and I look for him to improve to 5-0 with another strong performance tonight.  Take the Nationals Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -106

The Detroit Tigers have won four in a row coming into this one, and I look for them to make it five straight due to their edge on the mound and at the plate tonight.  The Texas Rangers have dropped five straight, scoring a combined nine runs in their last four.

Drew Smyly is showing why he deserves a spot in this loaded Detroit rotation long-term.  The left-hander has gone 3-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in 11 starts and three relief appearances this year.  He is also 1-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last three starts.

Colby Lewis is one of the worst starters in baseball in 2014.  He has gone 5-4 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.863 WHIP in 12 starts, 1-3 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.945 WHIP in six home starts, and 1-0 with a 7.63 ERA and 2.153 WHIP in his last three outings.  Lewis is also 3-3 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in eight career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals this season.  Detroit is 11-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base this season.  The Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.

20* AL Monday ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -115

After getting swept in four games by the Twins for their eighth loss in their last 10 games, there's no question the Chicago White Sox come into Game 1 of this series with Baltimore highly motivated.  They turn to their ace tonight to get them back on track.

Chris Sale has cemented himself as one of the top starters in baseball already in his young career.  The left-hander has gone 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.750 WHIP with 75 strikeouts over 65 1/3 innings in 10 starts this season.

Wei-Yin Chen is having a solid season for Baltimore as well, going 7-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.236 WHIP.  However, I look for the Orioles to have a big letdown tonight after beating Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees yesterday on the road by a final of 8-0.  They were a +190 dog in that contest.

The White Sox are 9-1 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after having lost four of their last five games this season.  Baltimore is 1-8 (-7.8 Units) against the money line in home games after having won three of its last four games this season.  Chicago is 9-1 in Sale's last 10 Monday starts.  The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a home underdog.  Bet the White Sox Monday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +136

The Chicago White Sox are showing solid value today as a big road underdog to the Minnesota Twins.  They'll be highly motivated to avoid getting swept by their AL Central rivals after dropping the first three games of this series by a combined four runs.

John Danks has proven he's fully recovered from injury this season.  He has gone 6-5 with a 3.97 ERA in 14 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last three starts.  He has beaten the Dodgers, Tigers and Giants in his last three starts, which are three of the best teams in baseball.

Phil Hughes is getting way too much respect from the books due to his fast start this season for the Twins after pitching horribly in New York prior.  Hughes has been at his worst on the road this year, going 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA.  He gave up four earned runs and two homers over five innings in his lone start against the White Sox this season on April 3rd.

The Twins are hitting just .238 against left-handed starters this season.  The White Sox are 5-1 in their last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  The Twins are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 4 of a series.  Minnesota is 5-11 in its last 16 games as a home favorite.  Bet the White Sox Sunday.

20* AL Saturday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Tigers +112

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Justin Verlander as an underdog.  Off back-to-back terrible starts, we are getting him at a tremendous price here.  Look for Verlander to come out extra motivated tonight due to all the negative media coverage stemming from his struggles.

Verlander is a fierce competitor, and he's not one to fold when times are tough.  The right-hander has gone 18-15 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 37 career starts against Cleveland.  He has allowed just six earned runs over 26 innings in his last four starts against the Indians for a 2.08 ERA.

Trevor Bauer has no business being the favorite against Verlander, especially with the way he has pitched this season.  Bauer has hardly posted better numbers than Verlander, going 2-3 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in seven starts.  He is nowhere near the caliber of pitcher as Detroit's ace.

The Tigers are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog.  Detroit is 6-2 in Verlander's last eight road starts.  The Indians are 0-6 in their last six vs. AL Central opponents.  Detroit is 16-6 in its last 22 meetings with Cleveland, and 10-4 in its last 14 road meetings.  The Tigers are 15-7 in Verlander's last 22 starts vs. Cleveland.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +122

The Kansas City Royals finally had their 10-game winning streak come to an end Thursday with a 2-1 loss in Detroit.  It was the franchise's longest winning streak in 20 years, and it's only human nature for these players to suffer an emotional letdown in the game following the loss that put an end to the streak.

Helping me prove that theory is the fact that the Seattle Mariners send one of the best starters in the league to the mound tonight.  Hisashi Iwakuma is one of the most underrated starters in the game, and he has been over the last few years.

Iwakuma is at it again in 2014, going 5-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in nine starts, 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in three road starts, and 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in his last three starts overall. 

Iwakuma is also 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.563 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City, pitching 16 shutout innings while yielding only nine base runners.  James Shields hast posted a 4.15 ERA and 1.847 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Shields is also 1-2 with a 6.68 ERA in his last five starts against Seattle, giving up 23 earned runs in 31 innings.

Seattle is 7-0 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.  The Mariners are 11-1 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.  Take Seattle Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers +138

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Detroit Tigers at this kind of price all season.  I'll take advantage Friday night and back them as +138 dogs to the Cleveland Indians.  Without question, the Tigers are still one of the favorites to win the World Series.

Rick Porcello is having a breakout year for the Tigers, going 8-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 13 starts.  The right-hander is also 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.287 WHIP in 19 career starts against Cleveland.  Porcello went 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts against Cleveland in 2013.

Corey Kluber has pitched well this season for Cleveland, but he's 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in his last three starts.  The right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit as well.

Porcello is 21-6 (+13.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 9-1 (+8.2 Units) against the money line after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base this season. 

Detroit is 20-7 in Porcello's last 27 starts overall.  The Tigers are 39-14 in Porcello's last 53 starts vs. AL Central opponents.  The Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Indians are 0-5 in their last five vs. AL Central foes.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* Red Sox/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +150

The Boston Red Sox appear to have turned it around.  They just swept the Minnesota Twins at home thanks to back-to-back home runs in extra innings last night to secure a 2-1 walk-off victory.  I look for them to carry that momentum into Oakland tonight.

Boston will be sending Jake Peavy to the mound in this one, and we're getting him at a great price.  Peavy hasn't been at his best this year, posting a 4.53 ERA, but he did give up just one earned run over six innings last time out.  The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in two career starts against Oakland.

Scott Kazmir is off to a brilliant start this season for the A's, but with that comes lofty expectations.  As a result, he is overvalued as a massive favorite against the defending champion Red Sox here.  Kazmir is 8-8 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 29 career starts against Boston.

Boston is 31-13 (+17.0 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 14-4 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a game where they had four or less hits over the last two seasons.  Bet the Red Sox at a tremendous price Thursday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds -125

The Cincinnati Reds should be a much bigger favorite tonight due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.  They also aren't getting the respect they deserve because they are 33-35 on the year, but they have been bitten by injuries.  Now healthy, look for this team to go on a nice run.

That has certainly been the case of late as the Reds have won four of their last five games overall coming into this one.  Now they send ace Johnny Cueto to the mound as he looks to add to another impressive season in 2014.

Indeed, the right-hander has gone 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.775 WHIP through 14 starts this season while striking out 109 batters over 102 innings.  Cueto is 15-5 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.985 WHIP in 24 career starts against Pittsburgh.  In two starts against the Pirates in 2014, he has allowed one earned run over 18 innings.

Brandon Cumpton is nowhere near on the same level as Cueto.  The right-hander has gone 2-2 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.530 WHIP over six starts this season.  In his last three starts, Cumpton has posted a 9.64 ERA and 2.143 WHIP while allowing 15 earned runs and 30 base runners in 14 innings.

The Reds are 37-14 in Cueto's last 51 starts as a favorite.  Cincinnati is 5-1 in its last six road games.  The Reds are 5-1 in Cueto's last six road starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Cincinnati is 5-1 in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh.  The Reds are 10-4 in Cueto's last 14 starts against the Pirates.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Tigers UNDER 8 (-110)

After combining for 19 runs last night in an 11-8 Kansas City victory in Game 1 of this series, oddsmakers have inflated this total set in Game 2 Tuesday.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I foresee being an absolute pitcher's duel.

Yordano Ventura has been brilliant this season, going 4-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.237 WHIP through 12 starts for the Royals.  The right-hander has been at his best on the road, going 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in four starts away from home.

2013 AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer has been dominant once again in 2014.  The right-hander has gone 8-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 14 starts, and 5-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in six home starts.  Scherzer is also 9-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 18 career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 56-29 UNDER (+22.3 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last two seasons.  Kansas City is 50-29 UNDER (+16.5 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Scherzer's last eight starts vs. Kansas City.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -107

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Jered Weaver at this kind of price.  We are getting him at nearly even money Monday in Game 1 of this series with the Cleveland Indians, and we'll take advantage.

Weaver has been solid once again this season, going 7-5 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.171 WHIP over 14 starts.  The right-hander is also 8-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in 17 career starts against Cleveland.

Trevor Bauer was one of Cleveland's hottest prospects in the minors, but he has yet to live up to expectations.  The young right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.324 WHIP over six starts this season.

Cleveland is 4-15 (-10.6 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.  The Angels are 52-19 in Weaver's last 71 starts as a favorite.  Los Angeles is 20-8 in its last 28 games following a loss.  The Angels are 5-1 in Weaver's last six road starts against the Indians.  Bet the Angels Monday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels +127

Great value here on the Los Angeles Angels (37-30), who are much better than they get credit for this season.  They should not be an underdog in this contest against the Atlanta Braves Sunday.

Mike Minor is getting way too much respect from the books here.  The left-hander has gone 2-4 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in his last three.  He gave up eight earned runs last time out at Colorado.

Hector Santiago is still searching for his first win of the season, which has him undervalued here.  He has pitched decently, posting a 4.15 ERA over 43 1/3 innings in 2014.  That would normally warrant at least one win, and I look for him to get on the board here.

Atlanta is 1-9 in Minor's last 10 interleague starts.  The Braves are 1-7 in their last eight interleague games.  The Angels are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games.  Los Angeles is 44-20 in its last 64 interleague road games.  The Angels are 21-7 in their last 28 vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Angels Sunday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

While the Miami Heat have been atrocious the past two games, I believe this line is inflated because of it.  With their season at stake, I look for the Heat to fight until the end tonight and to stay within 5.5 points of the Spurs, possibly pulling off the upset.

This is a veteran Heat team that is prepared better than any other team in the league for this win-or-go-home situation.  Look for Lebron James and company to put together a game plan that will give them an excellent chance to win this Game 5 and send the series back to Miami.

Miami is 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or less rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 24-9 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rays/Astros UNDER 8 (-114)

Today's match-up between Tampa Bay and Houston features two of the lightest-hitting teams in baseball.  Tampa Bay is hitting .243 and scoring 3.6 runs per game this season, including 3.0 RPG on the road.  Houston is hitting .239 and scoring 3.9 runs per game, including 3.8 RPG at home.

Chris Archer has quietly had a very solid season for Tampa Bay.  He has gone 3-3 with a 3.42 ERA, including 0-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts.  Archer is also 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two career starts against Houston, giving up two earned runs and 10 base runners in 15 innings.

Jared Cosart is pretty much picking up right where he left off last season.  The right-hander has gone 5-5 with a 4.19 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA in his last three outings.  Cosart pitched eight shutout innings to earn the win in a 2-1 victory in his lone career start against Tampa Bay on July 12, 2013.

Archer is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in June games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Rays last seven road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Archer's last five starts overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Astros last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Astros UNDER 8 (-115)

The books have set the bar too high in Game 1 of this series in a battle between two light-hitting teams.  Tampa Bay is scoring just 3.6 runs per game on the season, and 2.9 runs per game in road games.  Houston is putting up 3.9 runs per game on the year.

Alex Cobb is just 1-4 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in seven starts this year, but he's much better than the numbers indicate.  Remember, he went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 22 starts in 2013.  This guy will shut down the Astros Friday.

Collin McHugh has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year.  The right-hander has been the ace of the Astros' staff, going 4-3 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in nine starts while striking out 60 batters in 54 1/3 innings.  McHugh is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Cobb is 22-9 UNDER (+11.7 Units) vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Rays last six road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rays last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Cobb's last nine road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  These last four trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -153

The Detroit Tigers are actually undervalued right now due to losing eight of their last 11 games overall.  After winning last night against the Chicago White Sox 4-0, I look for the Tigers to put together a nice little winning streak going forward, starting tonight.

Drew Smyly has pitched well for Detroit this season, going 3-4 with a 3.81 ERA in nine starts and three relief appearances.  The left-hander has owned Minnesota, going 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three careers starts.  He hasn't allowed a single earned run over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Twins.

Kyle Gibson has pitched admirably at home this season for the Twins.  However, it has been a completely different story on the road.  The right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in six starts away from home in 2014.  His lone career start against Detroit came on the road on May 10th as he allowed six earned runs over two innings in a 3-9 loss to the Tigers.

The Twins are 1-5 in Gibson's last six starts as an underdog.  Minnesota is 1-4 in Gibson's last five road starts.  The Tigers are 122-57 in their last 179 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Twins are 3-16 (-13.2 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

I certainly understand the fact that the Heat have not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs in any of the past two years.  However, they haven't played a team as good as this 2013-14 San Antonio squad.  The Spurs are even better than they were a year ago, and they have made some nice adjustments from the way they played the Heat in the Finals last year.

Last year, the Spurs would go under screens and dare Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot the outside shot.  Now, they are mixing it up, switching screens about half the time to give those two stars a different look, and it's working.  Their transition defense has also been much better than it was a year ago.

San Antonio comes into this game knowing that they can essentially win the series with a victory tonight, and it will not be lacking any motivation because of it.  This team is gleaming with confidence after a marvelous shooting display in Game 3, and while I do not expect that kind of shooting performance again, I believe they will be good enough to stay within 5.5 points, likely pulling off the upset.

Miami is 4-12 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.  San Antonio is 41-22 ATS after scoring 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 53-25-1 ATS in its last 79 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 4 Thursday.

15* NL Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +106

The Chicago Cubs have been playing their best baseball of the season over the last couple of weeks.  They have won six of their last nine games overall coming in, and look to even this series with the Pirates.  With the edge they have on the mound in this one, I look for them to do just that.

Jeff Samardzija has been brilliant this season, posting a 2.54 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 13 starts.  Better yet, in eight career starts against Pittsburgh, he sports a 2.05 ERA and 0.930 WHIP.  He has allowed just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates.

Look for the Cubs to get their bats going off Edinson Volquez tonight.  The right-hander went 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA in 2013 in his time between the Padres and Dodgers.  He is 3-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 12 starts this season for Pittsburgh.  Volquez has given up nine earned runs, three homers and 17 base runners over 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago for a 12.80 ERA.

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss.  Pittsburgh is 6-17 (-11.9 Units) against the money line after six consecutive games versus division rivals this season.  The Pirates are 1-4 in their last five during game 4 of a series.  Take the Cubs Thursday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -122

The Los Angeles Angels are playing their best baseball of the season right now having won five straight.  They will not let up tonight as they still trail the Oakland A's by 2.5 games for first place in the AL West division.  I look for them to make it six in a row tonight.

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back ace Jered Weaver at this kind of price at home.  The right-hander has gone 7-4 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in seven home starts.

Weaver will want revenge from a loss to the A's on June 1st in a rare poor start for him against this team.  Indeed, Weaver is 11-8 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 27 career starts against Oakland.  In fact, before his last start against the A's, he had gone 8-1 with a minuscule 0.87 ERA in his previous 11 starts against them, allowing eight earned runs in 82 1/3 innings.

Tom Milone has been at his worst on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in six starts away from home.  The left-hander sports a 4.21 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles as well.  Simply put, he is overmatched in this one.

Weaver is 85-35 (+28.8 Units) against the money line in home games in his career.  Weaver is 32-8 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents in his career.  The Angels are 39-13 in Weaver's last 52 home starts.  Los Angeles is 52-18 in Weaver's last 70 starts as a favorite. 

The Angels are 6-0 in their last six home games.  Los Angeles is 11-1 in its last 12 when its opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.  The A's are 0-6 in their last six games as an underdog.  The Angels are 5-0 in their last five home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last five games overall.  These five trends combine for a 33-1 system backing the home team.  Bet the Angels Wednesday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The San Antonio Spurs represent my strongest play of the entire NBA Finals tonight as a 4.5-point road underdog in Game 3 against the Miami Heat.  I look for them to not only cover, but to win this game outright to re-gain home-court advantage in the series.

The Spurs have been the best road team in the league this season, going 33-16 away from home while outscoring opponents by an average of 5.2 points per game.  This veteran bunch will not be intimidated one bit by going into Miami to try and come away with a victory in Game 3.

The Heat have been unbelievable when coming off a loss this season, but not so hot when coming off a win.  They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games following a S.U. win.  Miami is also 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a road win, and 14-26 ATS in its last 40 home games after playing its last game on the road.

San Antonio is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a home loss.  The Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots.  San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on one days' rest.  The Spurs are 52-25-1 ATS in their last 78 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Rangers OVER 9

I'm backing the OVER tonight in this interleague contest between the Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers.  This game will be played by the American League rules with a designated hitter, which further enhances the chances of it going OVER the total.

Colby Lewis is just 4-4 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.773 WHIP in 10 starts this season for Texas.  The right-hander is 0-2 with a 10.43 ERA in his last three home starts, 0-3 with a 12.83 ERA in his last three interleague games, and he has given up at least five runs in three of his past four starts.

Tom Koehler got off to a fast start this season for the Marlins, but he has struggled of late.  Indeed, the right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in his last three starts, and 2-3 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in six road starts this year.

Texas has combined for 10 or more runs with six of its last seven opponents overall, all of which have come at home in hitter-friendly Arlington.  That includes last night's 7-17 home loss to the Cleveland Indians in a game that saw 24 combined runs.

Miami is 28-11 to the OVER in night games this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Marlins last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The OVER is 8-0 in Rangers last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Lewis' last five interleague starts.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these teams.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Texas.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Nationals/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington -121

The Washington Nationals have a big edge on the mound tonight, and for the price, they're certainly the play in this one.  Rarely ever will you get ace Stephen Strasburg as this small of a favorite.  Plus, they are playing their best baseball of the season having won seven of their last nine games overall.

San Francisco is overvalued right now due to having the league's best record.  Ryan Vogelsong is also overvalued due to a fast start this season.  But remember, Vogelsong went 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 19 starts last year.  Also, Vogelsong is 1-1 with an 8.73 ERA and 2.116 WHIP in three career starts against Washington, all since 2012.

Strasburg is still one of the best starters in the game even though he's not getting that kind of credit right now.  The right-hander has gone 5-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  For his career, the right-hander is 34-23 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 88 starts.  Strasburg is also 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.

The Nationals are 48-18 in their last 66 games as a road favorite.  Washington is 15-6 in Strasburgh's last 21 starts overall, including 4-0 in his last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 5-12 in their last 17 Monday games.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 199

After the Heat and Spurs went OVER in Game 1, I believe there is some value to backing the UNDER in Game 2.  These teams have had two days off since Game 1 to make adjustments, which I strong believe will favor the defenses.

Miami is  9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 26-11 (70.3%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +147

I backed the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday in a 5-0 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays as a +150 underdog.  I'm backing them again today for many of the same reasons as we'll rarely have a chance to back this elite team as this big of an underdog all year.

Another reason I like this play is because the Blue Jays are way overvalued right now.  They lead the AL East standings after a great run over the past month, but this might not be the best team in the division come season's end.

Jaime Garcia has been at his best on the road this season, going 1-0 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.058 WHIP.  The left-hander also sports a 2.77 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto.  Drew Hutchison has been at his worst at home, going 1-2 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.822 WHIP this year.

The Cardinals are 26-10 in their last 36 during game 3 of a series.  St. Louis is 5-1 in Garcia's last six road starts.  The Cardinals are 10-3 in their last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.  Take St. Louis Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals +150

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the St. Louis Cardinals at this kind of price.  I'll take advantage and fade the Toronto Blue Jays, who are overvalued right now due to their recent stretch of solid play, which includes a five-game winning streak heading into this one.

Another reason the Blue Jays are overvalued in this contest is because Mark Buehrle is the only 10-game winner in baseball right now.  While he has been brilliant to this point, there's no question his start to the season is an aberration based off of previous years, and he's going to regress.

Shelby Miller is one of the best young starters in the game, but he's undervalued right now due to a slow start this year that has seen him go 6-5 with a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts.  This is the same guy that went 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.206 WHIP as a rookie last year.

Toronto is 0-11 (-11.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last two seasons.  This is a free-swinging Blue Jays team that strikes out a lot, and I look for Miller to use that to his advantage today.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

15* Mets/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on New York +134

The New York Mets should not be an underdog to the San Francisco Giants tonight.  I'll take advantage and back them at a great price in Game 1 of this series due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Jon Niese has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the last couple of seasons.  This year has been no exception.  Niese is 3-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 11 starts this year.  The left-hander has gone 1-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco as well.

Matt Cain just hasn't been the same ever since signing the biggest contract ever for a right-handed starter in the big leagues at the time a couple years ago.  The right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in eight starts this season, and 5-5 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in 12 career starts against New York.

Cain is 0-8 (-10.5 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last two seasons.  Niese is 15-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Niese is 14-5 (+15.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less over the last two seasons.  New York is 5-0 in its last five meetings in San Francisco.  Take the Mets Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -110

Off back-to-back losses, I look for the Atlanta Braves (31-27) to bounce back with a victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-36) in Game 1 of this series Friday night.  They'll do so behind the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.

Ace Julio Teheran gets the ball looking to build off an already impressive season to this point.  The right-hander has gone 5-3 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in 12 starts, including 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three starts.  Teheran is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against Arizona as well.

Brandon McCarthy is one of the worst starters in the big leagues and has not been the same since getting hit in the head by a baseball.  The right-hander is 1-7 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.321 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in seven home starts.

Arizona is 1-9 (-9.1 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.  McCarthy is 0-6 (-8.1 Units) against the money line in home games against NL East opponents over the last two seasons. 

The Braves are 13-3 in Teheran's last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 3-12 in their last 15 games as a home underdog.  Arizona is 1-10 in McCarthy's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Friday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs fought hard to get back to this position.  They won the league's best record during the regular season to get home-court advantage throughout, then made their way through the Western Conference, which is arguably as strong as it's ever been.

Miami kind of went through the motions during the regular season, allowing the Pacers to take the No. 1 seed without even earning it.  The Heat have then faced a very weak Eastern Conference to get here.  They won't be ready for the challenge that's coming in Game 1 like the Spurs will be.

The Spurs are 41-10 at home this season.  They have won eight straight playoff home games all by 6 points or more.  In fact, their last seven playoff home games have resulted in victories by 17-plus points each.  They have won 15 of their last 19 home meetings with the Heat.

 San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Spurs are 51-24-1 ATS in their last 76 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 1 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals are motivated right now due to losing six of their last eight games overall, including two of three to the Royals in this series.  I backed them last night with success, and I feel they are the right side tonight in Game 4 against Kansas City.

Michael Wacha is proving that his postseason run last year was no fluke.  The tall right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts.

Yordano Ventura is a talented young starter in this league and one that I have backed a few times already.  However, he has struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts.  Ventura is also 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in six home starts.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games as a road favorite.  The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Kansas City is 0-5 in Ventura's last five starts.  St. Louis is 8-0 in its last eight meetings in Kansas City.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the road team.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -117

After losing the first games games of this series, three straight, and six of their last seven overall, there's no question that the St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They couldn't have picked a better starter to get them back on track against the Kansas City Royals.

Ace Adam Wainwright gets the ball looking to improve upon yet another Cy Young-caliber season.  The right-hander has gone 8-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in 12 starts, including 5-2 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in seven road starts.  Wainwright is also 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in six career starts against Kansas City.

While I do believe Jason Vargas is an underrated starter in this league, he is simply no match for Wainwright.  The left-hander has gone 3-2 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in six home starts this season.  He is also 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis.

Wainwright is 66-30 (+24.5 Units) against the money line after a team loss in his career.  The Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series.  St. Louis is 47-19 in Wainwright's last 66 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -105

The Cincinnati Reds are showing excellent value tonight as a small home favorite over the San Francisco Giants.  The Reds are showing playing their best baseball of the season right now having won four straight and five of six, while the Giants are overvalued due to their fast start to the year.

Tony Cingrani came on the scene last year and went 7-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 18 starts and five relief appearances.  While he has only posted a 4.01 ERA thus far in 2014, there's no question that this is one of the best young starters in the game today.  He also sports a 3.47 ERA in four home starts.

Ryan Vogelsong is coming off an awful year in which he went 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 19 starts in 2013.  He has been better this year at 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.277 WHIP, but he's only 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in five road starts.

Vogelsong is 1-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in nine career starts against Cincinnati, while Cingrani is 1-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.297 WHIP in two career starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 1-5 in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four games overall.  The Reds are 4-0 in their last four vs. NL West opponents.  Take the Reds Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Yankees +120

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the New York Yankees as a home underdog.  I'll take advantage today and side with them while they're showing some of their best value of the entire season Tuesday night.

After dropping two in a row, I look for the Yankees to back in the win column behind one of the most underrated starters in the league for years.  Hiroki Kuroda may be struggling a bit at 4-3 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.323 WHIP this year, but he's still better than he gets credit for.  He has posted a 3.58 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in four career starts against Oakland.

Scott Kazmir has had a revival over the last couple seasons in the big leagues, but he's overvalued now as a result.  Kazmir pitched a complete game against the Detroit Tigers last time out, and he'll be fatigued and in line for a letdown because of it.  The left-hander is 1-3 with an 8.38 ERA in his last four starts against the Yankees, yielding 18 earned runs and six homers over 19 1/3 innings.

Kuroda is 19-6 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in his career.  The A's are 0-4 in their last four road games.  The Yankees are 13-4 in Kuroda's last 17 home starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5 runs.  New York is 5-0 in its last five when its opponents scores five runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -115

The Cincinnati Reds are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the San Francisco Giants.  They are playing their best baseball of the season right now having won three straight and four of their last five games overall.

San Francisco comes in overvalued due to owning the league's best record.  Tim Lincecum is one of their worst starters, going 4-3 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in four road starts.  Lincecum is 0-3 with an 8.65 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in five career starts against Cincinnati.

Homer Bailey has not gotten off to the start he wanted this year after signing a big contract last offseason, but he is coming around of late.  Bailey is 2-0 in his last two starts while allowing just five earned runs over 13 innings for a 3.46 ERA in wins over the Cardinals & Dodgers. 

The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in seven career starts against San Francisco.  In his last two starts against the Giants, Bailey has given up just one earned run in 16 innings, which includes a no-hitter.  It also has featured 19 strikeouts and only three base runners allowed in those 16 innings.

The Reds are 6-1 in Bailey's last seven home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in Bailey's last four starts as a favorite.  The Reds are 5-1 in their last six games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four home games following a road trip of seven or more days.  Take the Reds Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-128)

While it's rare, I do like taking big road underdogs on the run line just for that extra run of insurance.  A big percentage of games are decided by one run, and I believe there is a good chance that the White Sox either beat the Dodgers outright or lose by a run tonight.

This is a much more evenly-matched game on the mound than the line would indicate.  Jose Quintana never gets the respect he deserves, going 3-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  The left-hander pitched eight shutout innings in his lone career starts against Los Angeles.

Clayton Kershaw has been solid this year, but not as sharp as he has in the past.  The left-hander is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kershaw is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox have the edge at the plate in this one.  They have gone 9-7 against southpaws this year while hitting .271 and scoring 5.1 runs per game in those 16 contests.  The Dodgers are 6-7 against left-handers while hitting .221 and scoring a measly 3.0 runs in those 13 games.

Plays against all favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 to -190) (LA DODGERS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games are 34-10 (77.3%, +25 units) over the last five seasons.

Kershaw is 3-12 against the run line (-10.0 Units) in home games in night games over the last two seasons.  Kershaw is 6-18 against the run line (-12.6 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is -120 to +115 over the last three seasons.  Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +145

The Tampa Bay Rays are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox Sunday.  I'll take them at this price knowing that they'll be motivated for a win because they've lost five in a row coming in, including a 7-1 loss yesterday.

Tampa Bay is still one of the best teams in the league as I see it, and I won't be surprised to see them atop the AL East standings by season's end.  They gotta go right now thought, and Erik Bedard is the guy that can get them on track.

The left-hander is 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in 2014.  He is 5-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 14 career starts against Boston.  John Lester is 13-11 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.291 WHIP in 29 career starts against Tampa Bay.  Lester is 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

The Rays come in highly motivated.  They are 9-4 in their last 13 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  The  Red Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 3 of a series.  The Red Sox are 0-4 in Lester's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Bet the Rays Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +157

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday.  I'll take them at this price knowing that they'll be motivated, and with Jeremy Guthrie on the mound.

The Royals lost 12-2 yesterday so they're obviously motivated to avenge that loss.  Guthrie is the perfect guy to do it as he has gone 2-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He's also 0-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in his last three starts.

Mark Buehle is the most overrated starter in the big leagues to this point.  He has opened 9-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 11 starts this year, but he has been awful over the last couple of years.  So he's having a career year but it won't last.

Guthrie has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 21 career starts against Toronto, so he obviously likes facing this team.  The Royals are 24-9 in Guthrie's last 33 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Guthrie is 8-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last two seasons.  Take the Royals Sunday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +4

The San Antonio Spurs remember when they went up 2-0 only to lose the next four games to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals in 2012.  They have been playing with extra motivation this series because of it, and while the home team has won every game thus far, I look for that to change in Game 6 tonight.

The Spurs know what they need to do to beat the Thunder after running their game plan to perfection in a blowout victory in Game 5.  They have been stagnant on offense in their two road games, but they got back to moving the ball in Game 5.  Look for them to really put an emphasis on ball movement in Game 6, because when they move it like they are supposed to, they are virtually unbeatable.

Plays against home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Spurs are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.  San Antonio is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season.  The Spurs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Spurs Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -114

The Atlanta Braves are highly motivated to dominate this series with the Miami Marlins after getting swept by the Boston Red Sox in a four-game set last series.  I backed them in a 3-2 victory in Game 1, and I fully expect a bigger blowout to go in their favor in Game 2 Saturday.

The Braves have a massive edge on the mound in this one.  Ervin Santana has faltered of late, but he's still been pretty good this season.  The right-hander is 4-2 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in nine starts in 2014.

Jacob Turner is a below-average starter in this league.  The right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in six starts, including 1-0 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.837 WHIP in three home starts, which is poor considering Miami is a pitcher-friendly park.

The Marlins are 4-14 in Turner's last 18 starts overall.  Miami is 1-7 in Turner's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Marlins are 0-6 in Turners last 6 starts vs. National League East opponents.  Bet the Braves Saturday.

15* Pacers/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons.  After losing the first two games in Miami this series, I look for the Pacers to give the Heat a run for their money in Game 6 to try and extend this series and send it back to Indiana for a Game 7.

This has been a much closer series than most realize.  The Pacers won Game 1, were tied with just over a minute remaining in Game 2, and blew a 15-point lead in Miami in Game 3.  I like the fight this team showed in Game 5, and I believe it will carry over into Game 6 with their season at stake. 

After all, the Pacers have played their best this postseason when their back has been against the wall.  They won Game 6 in Atlanta when trailing 3-2, and finished the Hawks off in Game 7.  After falling behind 0-1 to Washington, they won three straight and eventually won in six games.  They are still a solid 5-3 on the road in these playoffs.

Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots this season.  Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -122

The Atlanta Braves represent my strongest play in the NL East division for the entire month of May.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series with Miami tonight after getting swept in four games by the Boston Red Sox last series.

Atlanta sends NL Cy Young contender Julio Teheran to the mound to stop the bleeding.  The right-hander has been nothing short of brilliant this season, going 4-3 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in 11 starts.  Teheran is unbeaten in five career starts against Miami, going 3-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.175 WHIP.

Tom Koehler got off to a great start this season for Miami, but he has come back down to reality of late.  The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in his last three starts.  Koehler is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta, all of which have resulted in losses for the Marlins.

Plays against any team (MIAMI) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 41-11 (78.8%, +27.5 units) over the last five seasons.  The Braves are 40-18 in their last 58 meetings with the Marlins.

Atlanta is 70-37 (+31.4 Units) against the money line in road games after three or more consecutive losses since 1997.  The Braves are 11-1 in Teheran's last 12 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Atlanta is 4-0 in Teheran's last four starts vs. Miami.  The Marlins are 23-51 in their last 74 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio -5

The San Antonio Spurs head back home for Game 5 of this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is a very resilient Spurs bunch that knows the importance of this game and does not want a repeat of two years ago when they blew a 2-0 lead to the Thunder and lost 2-4.

The Spurs are 40-10 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points per game.  The home team has won all four meetings in this series thus far.  The Spurs won their first two home games by a combined 52 points.

I look for Greg Popovich to make the necessary adjustments to put his team in a much better position to win tonight.  The ball will move quickly on offense, and also look for Manu Ginobli to play more with the starters because he can break down a defense.

The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 home playoff games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games this postseason.  The Spurs are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Spurs in Game 5 Thursday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -127

The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing well over the past couple weeks.  They have won 10 of their last 14 games overall to get right back in the thick of the NL Central race.  They have not lost back-to-back games since May 9-10, and I look for them to avoid that tonight after losing Game 3 to the Yankees last night.

It's nice to see Jaime Garcia back on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA and 0.868 WHIP through two starts this season after missing most of last year due to injury.  Garcia is 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.

Ryan Vogelsong is coming off a disastrous 2013 campaign in which he went 4-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 19 starts.  While he has excelled at home this season, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in four road starts in 2014.  Vogelsong is also 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in nine career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis is 71-34 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 38-15 in their last 53 games following a loss.  St. Louis is 14-5 in Garcia's last 19 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 10-23 in their last 33 vs. National League Central foes.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers will have some fight left in them as they head back home for Game 5.  This easily could be a 2-2 series right now, and knowing that they won in Miami in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, they have to have some hope that they can come back and win the series.

"I think anytime you lose three in a row in the playoffs, it shakes your confidence some," coach Frank Vogel said. "But we can't worry about that. All we've got to worry about is coming back and winning Game 5 and giving us an opportunity to come down here and win one game. We've won one game in each playoff series that we've played here the last two years. We should have confidence that we can do that."

The Pacers won Game 1 and were tied with Miami in the closing minutes in Game 2, but faltered down the stretch.  They also blew a 15-point lead at Miami in Game 3, so it's clear that they have proven they can play with this team.  They just need a few more things to go their way tonight, and I believe they will.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS since 1996.  Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams get together as the home team has gone 11-1 (92%) straight up in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Pacers in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -107

The Tampa Bay Rays represent my favorite play in the American League over the past seven days as they take on the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  After losing the first two games of this series to the Blue Jays, I look for the Rays to come out highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3.

I believe they'll get the job done due to their huge edge on the mound.  Chris Archer has gone 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts, pitching 11 2/3 shutout innings in wins over the likes of the Angels and Red Sox.  He has struck out 16 batters over this span.  Archer is 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in four career starts against Toronto as well.

Liam Hendriks is no more than a spot starter in this league and wouldn't make most rotations.  Hendriks has gone 3-13 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 29 starts and two relief appearances in his four-year career between Minnesota and Toronto.  In his lone career start against Tampa Bay, he gave up four earned runs and two homers in 5 2/3 innings.

Toronto is simply overvalued right now due to its nice stretch of play over the past couple of weeks to get into first place in the AL East.  Tampa Bay is 4-0 in its last four games as a favorite.  The Rays are 10-3 in Archer's last 13 starts vs. AL East opponents.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs played their worst game of the playoffs in Game 3, yet they still only lost by single-digits.  They relaxed a little after winning the first two games by a combined 56 points, and they ended up shooting just 39.6% from the floor in that 97-106 Game 3 loss.

Everyone wants to be quick to credit the return of Serge Ibaka as the reason the Thunder won, but I believe it was more to do with self-inflicted wounds than anything.  Tony Parker has his worst game of the series, and when he doesn't have it going, the team tends to struggle offensively.

I look for the Spurs to come back highly motivated tonight realizing that they need to take back control of this series after what happened in the 2012 conference finals.  They blew a 2-0 lead and lost the next four games to the Thunder that year, and they will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight because of it.

San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Roll with the Spurs in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -107

The Boston Red Sox represent my favorite play in interleague action for the entire month of May Tuesday as they take on the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of this series.  They have a massive edge on the mound and I look for them to come in with some momentum, too.

Boston finally put an end to its 10-game losing streak with an 8-6 victory over Atlanta in Game 1.  It got into a brawl with Tampa Bay over the weekend, and I look for that to spark the defending world champs going forward.  This is still one of the most talented teams in baseball.

Jon Lester has put together back-to-back brilliant seasons thus far in 2013 and 2014.  Lesteer went 15-8 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 2013, and he's currently 4-6 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 2014.  The left-hander is also 3-2 with a 3.03 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in five road starts this year, and 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.

Aaron Harang is having an excellent season for Atlanta, but I believe it's an aberration.  The 36-year-old went 5-12 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in 26 starts last season between Seattle and New York.  Now, he is 4-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 10 starts thus far in 2014.  He'll get rocked by the Red Sox like he always does.  Indeed, Harang is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in four career starts against Boston.

Boston is 12-3 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost three of their last four games over the last two seasons.  Lester is 14-3 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less in his career.  The Red Sox are 95-37 in their last 132 interleague games as a favorite.  The Braves are 1-6 in their last seven games as an underdog.  Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays +109

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  They trail the Blue Jays by seven games in the AL East after losing Game 1 of this series Monday, and I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight.

Without a doubt, the Rays have the better starter going in this one.  Alex Cobb has gone 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in four starts this season.    He has missed most of the season with a strained oblique, which has really hurt this team.  Remember, Cobb went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 22 starts last season, and I would argue he's the team's best starter over David Price when healthy.

He'll be up against the 35-year-old Mark Buehrle.  The left-hander went 12-10 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in his first season with Toronto in 2013.  Now, he's 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 10 starts with the Blue Jays in 2014, which is clearly an aberration.  He is overvalued due to the fast start, and he won't be able to keep it up.

Cobb has gone 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto.  Buehrle is 7-6 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 19 career starts against Tampa Bay.  The Rays are 6-0 in Cobb's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 7-2 in Cobb's last nine road starts.  Take the Rays Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6.5

It's now or never for the Indiana Pacers, who cannot afford to lose this Game 4 against the Miami Heat if they want to win this series.  I look for them to lay it all on the line to get the victory, and for it to be enough to at least stay within this 6.5-point spread.

Sure, Indiana blew a golden opportunity in Game 3 after leading most of the way in that contest.  Miami simply got hot in the 4th quarter, and Ray Allen could not miss.  The Heat have shot at least 50% in every game thus far, so they have clearly had a lot right go for them.

That is saying something considering the Pacers are the top defensive team in the league this season.  Indeed, they rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and I fully expect their best effort on that end of the floor in this one.

The Pacers are 5-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet Indiana in Game 4 Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +127

The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value as a decent-sized underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this interleague series Monday.  I'll take advantage and back them in a game that they should not be a dog at all.

Chris Tillman remains one of the most underrated starters in the game today.  The right-hander has gone 4-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Remember, he went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 2012, and 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 2013.  I believe he'll fare well against this National League opponent today.

Baltimore is a very profitable 79-69 (+37.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons.  Tillman is 20-7 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Orioles are 10-2 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Baltimore is 6-1 in its last seven vs. NL Central foes.  The Orioles are 20-8 in Tillman's last 28 road starts.  The Brewers are 5-16 in their last 21 interleague games as a favorite.  Take the Orioles Monday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder played in a very high-scoring Game 1 that saw 227 combined points.  That final tally has inflated the total in both Game 2 and Game 3.  I took advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 2, and I'll take advantage again today in Game 3.

The fact of the matter is that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league.  Indeed, the Spurs rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 5th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

This has been a low-scoring series between these familiar foes, who met in the Western Conference Finals in 2012 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 11 meetings have seen 206 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Spurs last 17 games following an ATS win.    The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 54-21 (72%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +105

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory today in Game 4 of this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They have lost the first three games of this series to add fuel to the fire, and they want to avoid the sweep.  I like their chances due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Doug Fister was quietly one of the best offseason acquisitions in the league.  He has started off well in his switch to the National League, which usually works out for most starters.  He has gone 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in three starts this season.

Francisco Liriano had a great year last season, but it was simply an aberration because he was one of the worst starters in the game for a couple years prior.  That has proven to be the case in 2014 as the left-hander is 0-4 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 10 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in six home starts.

Fister has posted a 1.38 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two career starts against Pittsburgh.  The Nationals are 6-1 in their last seven during Game 4 of a series.  The Pirates are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Nationals Sunday.

25* Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play in the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 3 of this series.  They are catching too many points against the Miami Heat in this one, and I'll take advantage by taking all the points I can get.

Paul George is expected to play Saturday, which is a huge bonus for the Pacers because he is by far the most important player on the team.  He is averaging 21.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists in the playoffs, and a team-high 41.3 minutes per game to boot.

As I've stated before, the Pacers match up really well with the Heat because George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as any duo in the league.  They ranks 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  The Heat rank 11th in that same category at 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

Indiana has won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons in 2012 and 2013.  It has played its best basketball away from home in the postseason, going 5-1 through the first two rounds in road games.  It was an underdog in four of those contests, all of which it won outright.

The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Miami is 7-18 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on three or more days of rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -135

The Tampa Bay Rays (21-28) are back on track after winning two games in a row.  This is still one of the best teams in the AL East in my opinion, and they are going to be showing great value for a while do to their slow start.

They are certainly showing good value with as a small favorite with ace David Price on the mound tonight.  The left-hander has gone 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Price is 10-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 21 career starts against Boston.

The Boston Red Sox (20-27) are clearly suffering a World Series hangover.  They have lost eight straight coming into this one.  Jake Peavy is 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in nine starts this year.  The right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA in eight career starts against Tampa Bay as well.

Tampa Bay is 82-44 (+25.0 Units) against the money line in home games after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games since 1997.  The Red Sox are 0-6 in Peavy's last six starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Boston is 1-4 in Peavy's last five road starts.  The Rays are 59-29 in their last 88 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tampa Bay is 36-17 in Price's last 53 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Rays Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+101)

The Los Angeles Dodgers should not have a problem winning this game by 2-plus runs Friday given the massive edge they have on the mound.  I look for Clayton Kershaw to shut down the Phillies, and for the Dodgers' offense to light up Roberto Hernandez.

While the former Cy Young winner has struggled a bit in the early going, there's no question he's still one of the top starters in the game, if not the best starter.  Kershaw has gone 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in four starts this season.  The left-hander went 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in 2013.  He also went 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 2012, and 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in 2011.

Roberto Hernandez has been one of the worst starters in baseball for a couple years now.  He went 7-15 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 2011, 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 2012, and 6-13 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 2013.  Hernandez is currently 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 2014 as well.

The Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Dodgers are 23-7 in Kershaw's last 30 starts during game 1 of a series.  The Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Phillies are 7-19 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +140

The Cleveland Indians (23-25) have turned their season around.  They swept AL Central rival Detroit in dramatic fashion from Monday-Wednesday.  They carried their momentum into an 8-7 victory over the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of this series as well.  I look for the good vibes to continue in Game 2 Friday.

The Orioles have no business being this heavily favored with Bud Norris on the mound.  The right-hander has gone 40-53 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 135 starts in his big league career.  He is overvalued due to a decent start in 2014, going 2-4 with a 3.8 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in eight starts.

T.J. House makes the first start of his big league career today, which is why he is being undervalued.  This guy has posted a 3.90 ERA in his minor league career.  He sports a 2.40 ERA and 1.113 WHIP over seven minor league starts in 2014, clearly proving that he's ready for the big leagues.

The Indians are 25-11 in their last 36 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.  Baltimore is 0-5 in its last five home games.  The Orioles are 0-4 in Norris' last 4 starts vs. American League Central.  Take the Indians Friday.

20* MLB Non-Divisional GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +102

The Tampa Bay Rays (19-28) are obviously not off to the start they wanted this season.  However, because of that slow start, I believe they will be showing a lot of value in the coming weeks.  I certainly feel that is the case tonight as a home dog to the Oakland A's.

Amazingly, even with that slow start, the Rays are only six games out of first place in the American League East.  I still believe this will prove to be one of the best teams in that division by season's end.  They have had some injuries slow them down thus far, but they get a key piece back tonight.

The Rays have been eagerly awaiting the return of Cobb (1-1, 1.89 ERA), who missed more than a month with a strained oblique.  He has pitched seven scoreless innings in his last two starts.  In a rehab start Saturday, the right-hander gave up three hits, no walks and struck out nine in five scoreless innings.

Remember, Cobb was one of the better starters in the game that not too many folks knew about last year.  He went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 22 starts in 2013.  Cobb is 3-2 with a 2.78 ERA and two complete games in his career against the A's.  He has allowed three runs in 16 1/3 innings to win his last two at home against Oakland.

After losing the first two games of this series, the Rays will be extra motivated tonight to avoid the sweep.  Tampa Bay is 8-3 in its last 11 games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Rays are 5-0 in Cobb's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Rays Thursday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR Thunder/Spurs on UNDER 211.5

After an extremely high-scoring Game 1 with 227 combined points in a 122-105 San Antonio victory, I look for the defense to be much sharper tonight in Game 2 of this series.  That was the case in the Miami/Indiana series, and I expect the same thing to happen in this one as well.

After all, that Game 1 total was more of an aberration than anything, especially when you look at how these teams have fared against each other recently.  Seven of the last 10 meetings between the Spurs and Thunder have seen 206 or fewer combined points.

These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder ranked 5th, allowing 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 14-6 in Spurs last 20 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants +114

I was on the San Francisco Giants last night as they blew a 4-3 lead in the ninth inning to lost 4-5.  I look for them to come back motivated to avenge that loss in Game 2 of this series, and I like their chances at this great price due to their edge on the mound.

Matt Cain is still one of the best starters in the game today despite his relatively slow start to the season.  The right-hander has gone 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has given up three runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts against Colorado, including two or less six times.

Jhoulys Chacin is still looking for his first win of the season for Colorado.  The right-hander has gone 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in three starts this season.  Chacin has given up four or more runs in three of his last seven starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 25-8 in their last 33 games following a loss.  The Rockies are 0-4 in Chacin's last four starts.  San Francisco is 7-2 in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 4-11 in Chacin's last 15 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Giants Wednesday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -125

The San Francisco Giants are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of this NL West series Tuesday.  With the edge they have on the mound, they should be a much bigger favorite.

Madison Bumgarner has been one of the most underrated starters in the league since he was a rookie.  The left-hander has been solid again this year, going 5-3 with a 3.25 ERA in nine starts, including 3-1 with a 1.39 ERA in five road starts.  Bumgaerner is 8-6 with a 3.28 ERA in 17 career starts against Colorado.

He'll be opposed by Franklin Morales, who has gone 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in eight starts and one relief appearance in 2014.  Morales has struggled in four career starts against San Francisco as well, going 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.655 WHIP.

Colorado is 1-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after a win by 2 runs or less this season.  The Giants are 7-1 in Bumgarner's last eight road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockies are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Giants Tuesday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 2 No-Doubt Rout on Indiana +3

I'm taking the Indiana Pacers for many of the same reasons I backed them in Game 1.  But most importantly, I'm backing them because they know how important retaining home-court advantage is, and that's why they will not have a letdown after throttling the Heat 107-96 in Game 1.

Sure, I realize the fact that Miami has not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs over the past two seasons, but you also have to realize that nobody other than perhaps San Antonio has played the Heat as tough as the Pacers in the postseason.  They aren't afraid of Miami because they know they can beat them.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  In fact, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.  Indiana has gone 39-10 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game.  Miami is just 25-21 on the road this year.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league.  It ranked 1st in defensive efficiency during the regular season, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in the same category, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.  Paul George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade better than any tandem in the league.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-6 (86%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +130

The Cleveland Indians (20-25) picked up a huge extra innings win last night in Game 1 of this series that I feel could be a turning point in their season.  Remember, this team made the AL Wild Card last year, and they are much better than they have shown up to this point.

Detroit is in a very tough situation.  It arrived just three hours before the first pitch last night because of travel delays from Boston.  These players did not get much sleep at all, obviously, and I look for that to affect them again tonight.

Justin Verlander just hasn't been the same dominant pitcher he was in 2012 over the past two regular seasons.  He has gone 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 2014, including 3-0 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in four road starts.

Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, gets the ball for the Indians tonight.  He has a bright future in this league.  Bauer struck out eight in six innings of a 2-1 loss to San Diego on April 9 in his lone start this season.  He had gone 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in seven starts for the Columbus Clippers at Triple-A before getting the call up tonight.

Verlander is a woeful 20-23 (-21.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 3-9 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Indians are 21-10 in their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Take Cleveland Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209

I look for a low-scoring affair between these familiar foes in Game 1 of this series Monday.  This is a rematch from the 2012 Western Conference Finals in which the Thunder won 4-2.  The familiarity will make points hard to come by in the opener tonight.

These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder ranked 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

One big key here is that Serge Ibaka is expected to be out for the remainder of the regular season.  While he is a solid defender, it will hurt the Thunder a lot more on the other end of the floor.  Ibaka averaged 15.1 points per game in the regular season and can make an 18-foot jumper with consistency.  That helps spread the floor, and the Thunder do not have another forward/center that can make that shot.  They will be in trouble offensively because of it.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 56-29 (65.9%) since 1996.  Seven of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 206 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Tigers/Indians ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Indians -103

The Cleveland Indians have gotten off to a slow start this season, but they are undervalued as a result.  They need to pick it up here to avoid falling further behind Detroit in the AL Central.  One way to do that is to beat them head-to-head, which they'll have the opportunity to do starting with Game 1 of this series Monday.

Detroit is riding high right now on a six-game winning streak.  I believe this is the perfect letdown spot for the Tigers, and it's a big reason why I'm fading them.  They are coming off a three-game sweep in Boston, avenging their lost to the Red Sox in the ALCS.  Their Game 3 victory last night was televised on ESPN, so this is definitely a letdown spot.

Off four straight losses, Cleveland comes into this series highly motivated.  I like its chances of getting the job done in Game 1 with Corey Kluber on the mound.  The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in nine starts this season.

Kluber has been at his best at home this season, going 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in four starts.  He has dominated the Tigers in his last two starts against them, giving up just two earned runs and striking out 16 over 13 2/3 innings for a 1.32 ERA.

Kluber is 13-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last two seasons.  The Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cleveland is 8-2 in Kluber's last 10 starts as a home favorite.  Take the Indians Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers worked hard during the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They did so looking ahead to a potential Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Miami Heat.  Starting with Game 1, I look for them to put that home court to use.

Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams have gotten together recently.  Indeed, the home team won all four meetings during the regular season.  Dating back to the playoffs last year, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.

Indiana has gone 38-10 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game at home.  Miami is a mediocre 25-20 on the road this year, clearly proving to be beatable away from home.

The Pacers were the best team in the league defensively this season.  They ranked first in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

When you can play defense, you give yourself a chance to win in the playoffs.  No team is better suited to stop Lebron James and Dwyane Wade than the Pacers.  Paul George can contain James, while Lance Stephenson does an excellent job on Wade.

The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days' rest.  I look for Indiana to protect its home court in Game 1 as the home team wins a 9th straight meeting between these teams.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -137

The Kansas City Royals (21-21) look to get back over .500 by taking Sunday's Game 4 against the Baltimore Orioles.  After losing two of the first three games in this series, they'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to square it up.

I like their chances of getting it done behind ace James Shields.  The right-hander has been the rock of this rotation for each of the past two years.  He has gone 5-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in nine starts in 2014.  Shields is 10-7 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 25 career starts against Baltimore.

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the most overrated starters in the big leagues.  The right-hander has gone 2-4 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Jimenez is 4-3 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 10 career starts against Kansas City as well.

Kansas City is 14-2 (+13.7 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 0-5 in their last five Sunday games.  The Royals are 49-23 in their last 72 games as a favorite.  Kansas City is 12-3 in Shields' last 15 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Royals Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Kansas City Royals -119

After losing the first two games of this series at home to the Baltimore Orioles, I look for the Kansas City Royals to bounce back in a big way in Game 3 tonight.  They have a massive edge on the mound in this one that will lead them to victory.

Indeed, youngster Danny Duffy has been tremendous thus far in 2014.  He has posted a 1.96 ERA and 1.038 WHIP while striking out 17 batters in 18 1/3 innings this year.  Duffy allowed two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his lone career start against Baltimore in 2011.

Bud Norris has not fared well since being traded to the American League.  The right-hander went 4-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.678 WHIP in nine starts and two relief appearances with Baltimore last season.  He has opened 2-3 with a 3.98 ERA in 2014, including 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four road starts.

The Royals are 48-23 in their last 71 games as a favorite.  Kansas City is 5-0 in Duffy's last five starts with eight or more days of rest.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a favorite.  Kansas City is 5-1 in Duffy's last six home starts.  The Royals are 8-2 in Duffy's last 10 starts overall.  Bet the Royals Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -130

The New York Yankees (21-19) should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-23) in Game 1 of this interleague series. I look for them to tee off on Pittsburgh's scheduled starter and to put up a big number in this game Saturday.

Edinson Volquez is one of the worst starters in the big leagues.  He went 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.585 WHIP over 32 starts between the Padres and Dodgers last year.  Volquez is 1-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 2014, including 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in his last three starts.

David Phelps has been nothing spectacular for the Yankees, but he's good enough to get the job done tonight and limit the Pirates to fewer runs than Volquez holds the Yankees to.  Phelps has posted a 4.09 ERA through 22 innings pitched in 2014.

The Pirates are 11-42 in their last 53 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 20-55 in its last 75 interleague road games overall.  The Yankees are 38-17 in their last 55 interleague games as a favorite.  New York is 8-2 in its last 10 after scoring two runs or less in its previous game.  The Yankees are 7-1 in Phelps' last eight home starts.  New York is 5-0 in Phelps' last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Yankees Saturday.

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -135

The Los Angeles Angels are a much-improved team this season at 22-18.  A big reason for that has been the health of ace Jered Weaver, who missed a  big portion of last season due to injury.

Weaver has gone 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be up against a Tampa Bay (18-24) team that is struggling this year due to injuries in its starting rotation.

Those injuries have opened the door for Chris Archer to start, which hasn't been good for the Rays.  Archer has gone 2-2 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay is 3-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.  Weaver is 15-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games after giving up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997.  The Angels are 26-6 in Weaver's last 32 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 53-25 in Weaver's last 78 starts overall.  Bet the Angels Friday.

15* Tigers/Red Sox Game 1 No-Brainer on Detroit +102

The Detroit Tigers (24-12) want revenge from losing to the Boston Red Sox (20-20) in the AL Championship Series last year.  I look for them to come into this series with a chip on their shoulder, and to get Game 1 Friday behind one of the best starters in the business.

2013 AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer has picked up right where he left off last season.  He went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.970 WHIP with 240 strikeouts in 214 1/3 innings last year.  Scherzer has opened 5-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.019 WHIP with 66 K's in 53 innings in 2014.

Jon Lester has really turned it around these last two seasons, but he's still no match for Scherzer.  Lester has gone 3-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in nine career starts against Detroit.  Scherzer has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts against Boston.  He has posted a 2.31 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings over those four starts.

Detroit is 8-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.  The Tigers are 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons.  Detroit is 8-0 in its last eight road games.

These three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Tigers tonight.  Also, Scherzer is 21-3 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Roll with the Tigers Friday.

20* Thunder/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 212

This series has gotten much more low-scoring as it has gone on.  Game 4 and Game 5 have been the two lowest-scoring games of the series.  The Thunder and Clippers combined for 200 points in Game 4 and 209 points in Game 5.

As teams become more familiar with one another over the course of a series, it favors the defenses.  Both of these teams know what the other is trying to do now.  OKC wants to isolate Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, while LAC wants to run pick and roll with Chris Paul.

The defenses have clearly made the adjustments in these past two games based off of shooting percentages.  The Clippers shot 41.9% in Game 4 and 43.2% in Game 5.  The Thunder shot 44% in Game 4 and 42.9% in Game 5.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 36-13 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians +100

The Cleveland Indians are showing tremendous value as an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  They should not be a dog in this contest given the massive edge they have on the mound, coupled with their confidence at the plate coming in.

Indeed, the Indians are coming off their highest-scoring game of the season in a 15-4 rout of the Blue Jays yesterday.  They pounded out a season-high 22 hits, including five each from David Murphy and Lonnie Chisenhall in the win.  The last five hitters combined to go 17 of 29 with eight runs scored and 11 RBIs.

Danny Salazar, who went 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.135 WHIP with 65 strikeouts in 52 innings in 10 starts last year, got off to a slow start this year.  However, he has returned to form of late, going 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in his last three starts while striking out 21 batters in 18 1/3 innings.

He'll be opposed by J.A. Happ, who amazes me each time he takes the mound because the fact of the matter is that he should not be a starter in the big leagues.  Happ has been awful again in 2014, going 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.966 WHIP over two starts and three relief appearances.  Happ went 6-15 with a 5.35 ERA in 2011, 10-11 with a 4.79 ERA in 2012, and 5-7 with a 4.56 ERA in 2013.

Cleveland is 55-29 (+22.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Indians are 9-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .333 or better over a 3-game span over the last three seasons. 

Toronto is 1-10 (-11.6 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Indians are 40-17 in their last 57 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are 1-8 in Happ's last nine home starts.  Take the Indians Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +8

It took three games to figure it out, but the Portland Trail Blazers now have an answer for Tony Parker.  After letting him go wild in the first three games of this series, they held him to just 14 points, one assist and three turnovers in a 103-92 Game 4 victory.

Parker had been averaging 26 points and more than eight assists in the first three games of the series.  The difference was Nicolas Batum, who was charged with guarding Parker the entire game.  The fellow Frenchman's length gave Parker fits and allow the Blazers to avoid the sweep.

I believe Portland legitimately has a chance to win this Game 5 outright tonight now that it has found the right defense for Parker.  The Spurs are overvalued due to four straight double-digit victories prior to that Game 4 loss.  They have no business being an 8-point favorite here against a Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives.

The Blazers are 11-1 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The Spurs are 5-13 ATS in home games off two straight games where they had 10 or less offensive rebounds this season.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Giants UNDER 6.5

I look for an absolute pitcher's duel this afternoon between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants.  Both teams will be sending their best starters to the mound in this one, and runs will be very hard to come by as a result.

Julio Teheran is 2-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in eight starts this season for Atlanta.  The right-hander has gone 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.

Madison Bumgarner continues to be one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  He has gone 4-3 with a 2.83 ERA in eight starts this season for the Giants.  The left-hander is also 4-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in eight career stars against Atlanta.  He has given up one earned run over 20 innings in his last three starts against the Braves.

Bumgarner is 20-6 UNDER (+13.0 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 9-1 to the UNDER in day games this season.  Bumgarner is 21-7 UNDER (+12.6 Units) when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Braves last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 22-5-2 in Braves last 29 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Teheran's last 33 starts overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have all of the momentum heading into Game 5.  They just erased a 16-point deficit with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 by a final of 101-99.  After looking dead to the water in this series, they now have new life and are essentially free rolling.

All of the pressure is back on Oklahoma City, which got 67 combined points from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and Game 4.  The Thunder also held the Clippers to 41.9% shooting in that contest, and they STILL could not win.  This team has to be baffled right now and feeling the pressure.

The Clippers clearly have the best coach in this series, and it's not even close.  I like what he did in putting the smaller Chris Paul on Durant, double-teaming him and forcing him to shoot outside jump shots.  I look for them to use that strategy again in Game 5, and Durant will either have to force shots or pass the ball.  Either way, that works in Los Angeles' favor.  Oklahoma City doesn't have the role players that can beat the Clippers.

Doc Rivers is 27-8 ATS in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or more of their shots in all games he has coached.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Oklahoma City.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -111

Any time you get the chance to fade the lowly Houston Astros (12-27) at this kind of price you should take advantage.  Getting the Rangers as this small of a favorite is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

That's especially the case when you consider Texas is 25-4(+16.9 units) in all meetings with Houston over the last three seasons, including 12-2 (+8.7 units) in 14 meetings in Houston.  Dating back further, the Rangers are 42-11 in the last 53 meetings, and 22-5 in their last 27 meetings in Houston.

Matt Harrison appears to be his old self this season as he recently returned from injury.  The left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 2.87 ERA in three starts, allowing just five earned runs over 15 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Dallas Keuchel, who is 0-2 with a 5.02 ERA in four home starts in 2014.  Keuchel is 0-2 with a 4.75 ERA in five career starts against Texas.

Houston is 22-80 (-37.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  The Rangers are 8-2 in Harrison's last 10 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Astros are 12-42 in their last 54 games overall.  Houston is 2-8 in Keuchel's last 10 home starts.  Roll with the Rangers Tuesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -113

The Cincinnati Reds are showing tremendous value as a small home favorite over the lowly San Diego Padres Tuesday.  I'll take advantage and back them at this generous price.

Mike Leake is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  The right-hander has gone 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He is coming off a 2013 season in which he went 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 31 starts.  Leake dominated San Diego in two starts last year, posting a 0.64 ERA while allowing just one earned run in 14 innings.

Andrew Cashner is certainly a solid starter in his own right, but he's much better at home than he is on the road.  Cashner has gone 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three starts away from home in 2014.  Cashner gave up five runs, three earned, and 11 base runners over 5 innings of a 2-7 loss to the Reds in his only career start against them last year.

Leake is 30-11 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in his career.  San Diego is 2-8 in Cashner's last 10 starts as an underdog.  Cincinnati is 61-26 in its last 87 when its opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the Reds Tuesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +105

The Atlanta Braves get the nod as a small road underdog to the San Francisco Giants Monday.  Game 1 of this series is a huge letdown spot for the Giants, who are coming off a series against their biggest rival in the Los Angeles Dodgers in which they beat them 3-1.  They won't show up to the park with the same intensity as they normally would tonight.

However, my biggest reason for backing the Braves is the edge that they have on the mound.  Gavin Floyd was brilliant in his first start back from Tommy John Surgery, and his first start while a member of the National League.  He gave up just one earned run over seven innings of a 2-1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on May 6th, and his switch to the NL will really benefit him over time.

Tim Lincecum has simply lost it.  He went 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 2012, and 10-14 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in 2013.  He hasn't been any better thus far in 2014, going 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.710 WHIP through seven starts.  Floyd is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against San Francisco.

Atlanta is 21-7 (+14.2 Units) against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less three straight games over the last three seasons.  The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Braves Monday.

15* Heat/Nets Game 4 No-Brainer on Brooklyn +3

The Brooklyn Nets proved that they weren't going to go away quietly by absolutely dominating in Game 3.  They crushed the Miami Heat 104-90 while shooting 52.8% from the field and outrebounding the Heat 50-30 for the game.

I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence in Game 4 off such a brilliant effort in a must-win situation.  This team obviously has the belief now that it can beat the Heat in the playoffs after sweeping them 4-0 during the regular season.

Brooklyn did play well all season at home, going 31-14 inside of the Barclays Center.  Miami has been beatable on the road, posting a 24-20 record away from home.  So, it's no surprise that the home team has won each of the first three meetings in this series.

The Nets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Monday.

20* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels +101

Mark Buehrle is having a fine season for the Toronto Blue Jays thus far.  However, there is no way this guy has simply gotten better with age.  He has been lucky in the early going, and now he is overvalued as a result.  The Blue Jays should not be favored over the Angels today.

Buehrle got simply destroyed in two starts against the Angels last year.  He posted an 11.70 ERA in those two starts, giving up 13 earned runs, 22 base runners and a whopping 5 home runs over 10 innings of work.  Buehrle clearly does not like facing this potent Los Angeles lineup.

C.J. Wilson continues to be one of the better pitchers in baseball year in and year out.  The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in three road starts.

Los Angeles is 14-1 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.  Wilson is 26-7 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in his career.  Los Angeles is 12-3 in Wilson's last 15 road starts.  Take the Angels Monday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Mariners OVER 7

The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners today.  The first three games in this series have seen 1, 7 and 4 combined runs, respectively, which has provided us some nice value with the OVER in Game 3.

The first three pitching match-ups were also much better than this Game 4 showdown.  This is easily the worst pitching match-up yet with Jeremy Guthrie taking on Roenis Elias.  I wouldn't be surprised if Guthrie gives up seven runs on his own.

Guthrie is 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA through seven starts this season, which are decent numbers.  However, Guthrie is 2-7 with a 4.90 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle.  Guthrie is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA in his last three starts against the Mariners, giving up 17 earned runs, 6 homers and 29 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 5 or more earned runs in four of his past five starts against Seattle.

The OVER is 9-2-2 in Mariners last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Mariners last 14 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Royals last seven games following a loss.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Thunder/Clippers Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to even this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is essentially a must-win situation for the Clippers, who cannot afford to fall behind 1-3 if they want to win this series.

Essentially nothing went right for the Clippers in Game 3, yet they still only lost by six points by a final of 112-118.  They were out-shot 55.7% to 45.2% and outrebounded 42-52.  Usually, those two numbers would lead to a blowout for the other team. 

So, considering they can't play any worse, I like their chances of bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 4.  The Clippers are 37-9 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Los Angeles is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Clippers are 14-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 20-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City Royals -120

I know I've been backing the Kansas City Royals quite a bit lately, but this team is undervalued off to a slow 17-18 start.  I have backed them successfully in three of their last four games, and I look for them to win their fourth game in five days tonight as well.

That's because they will be sending their best starter to the mound in Yordano Ventura, who simply does not get the respect he deserves from oddsmakers.  Ventura is a phenom, going 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.028 WHIP while striking out 41 batters over 36 innings this season.

He'll be opposed by the washed up Chris Young.  While Young is off to a solid start this season at 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.246 WHIP, I just know he cannot sustain it.  Ventura allowed one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in his lone career start against Seattle last year.

Plays against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 70-21 (76.9%) since 1997.

The Royals are 30-10 in their last 40 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Kansas City is 24-9 in its last 33 games as a road favorite.  The Royals are 46-21 in their last 67 games as a favorite.  The Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Roll with the Royals Saturday.