15* Packers/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Green Bay +4.5

The Green Bay Packers will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a victory to salvage their season.  They realize that with a win they are only two games back in the NFC North of the Detroit Lions, who they hold the tiebreaker with.  This division is still winnable, so not all is lost for the Packers.

Due to four straight losses, the Packers are to the point where they are as undervalued as they'll get this season.  We are getting them as 4.5-point underdogs, which is their biggest dog role this season and one of their biggest over the past couple seasons.  There's a good chance this game is decided by a field goal either way, so I like the value here. I also like the mental state of this team coming in.

"We have the right kind of men," head coach Mike McCarthy said. "This group of men, we're going to get to where we want to go. I'm fully confident in that. The process, the approach, the preparation, we're going to get this the way it needs to be. This locker room is awesome.

"We've got to win. We get that. It's about results. But everything leading up to that, I'm very pleased with. So we're just going to keep stoking our fire and we're going to do everything we need to do this week and prepare to go beat Philadelphia."

Despite being 5-5 on the season, the Eagles' playoff chances are no better than the Packers right now.  They have no chance of winning their division because the Cowboys are running away with it, so their only shot will be a wild card berth.  And after a 3-0 start, the Eagles have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall to fall back down to earth.  I don't think this team deserves to be laying 4.5 points against a team the caliber of the Packers with the way they're playing right now.

Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 54-21 (72%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  McCarthy is 27-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams who commit 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of Green Bay.  McCarthy is 18-6 ATS off a 2-game road trip as the coach of Green Bay.  Roll with the Packers Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics have started to play up to their potential now that they are fully healthy after playing several games without both Al Horford and Jae Crowder.  They have won three off their last four with all three wins coming on the road, and their only loss coming at home to the San Antonio Spurs, who are 10-0 on the road this season.

The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who have a laundry list of injuries and cannot afford to be short-handed with their lack of talent already.  The Heat are just 5-11 on the season.  They are without Justise Winslow, Chris Bosh and Wayne Ellington.  They could be without Goran Dragic and Willie Reed again tonight.  And Dion Waiters is nursing a groin injury.

The Celtics come in well-rested as they will have had two days off since the loss to the Spurs on Friday.  The Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Celtics have have the Heat's number, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with three straight wins by double-digits.

The Celtics are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 Monday games.  Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Eastern Conference opponents and 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Boston is 35-17 ATS in the last 52 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Monday.

25* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver -3

The Denver Broncos are fresh off their bye week and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs are 7-3 on the season.  They know they cannot afford to lose this game if they want to win the division again, so they have certainly been focused over this bye week.

The bye came at a great time too because the Broncos were banged-up.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season.  Fullback Andy Janovich had his cast removed and should be a receiving threat now while also aiding his lead blocking and blitz pickup.  Defensive end Derek Wolfe returned to practice after missing the last game, and CB Aqib Talib also returned to practice after sitting out since October 24th.

The Chiefs are as banged-up as they've been all season.  Linebacker Derrick Johnson is dealing with soreness in his Achilles tendon and is questionable.  The availability of wide receiver Jeremy Macin (groin), linebacker Dee Ford (hamstring), defensive tackle Dontari Pope (back), and running Charcandrick West (concussion) remains uncertain.  Cornerback Marcus Peters (hip) and linebacker Tamba Hali (knee) also had some limitations in practice in the days leading up to the game.

Kansas City's 7-3 record is very fraudulent.  It has the best turnover differential in the NFL at +13, which is unsustainable.  When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that this team isn't very good.  That's why I faded them last week and took the Bucs +7.5 in an outright 19-17 win, and I'll gladly fade them again here as they are overvalued catching just three points against the defending Super Bowl champs on the road.

Kansas City ranks 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 39.9 yards per game on the season.  Only the Colts, Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department, so the Chiefs are in some very poor company.  Their lackluster offense only averages 333.8 yards per game, and their defense has taken a big step back this year in giving up 373.7 yards. per game.  The Broncos' rushing attack should be able to exploit a KC defense that is giving up 121 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

The Chiefs have been outgained in three straight and seven of their last nine games overall.  They were outgained by 99 yards by the Bucs last week.  They were outgained by 85 yards by the Panthers and won that game despite not scoring an offensive touchdown, which was very fluky as Carolina gave it away by blowing a 17-0 lead with turnovers.  And the Chiefs were very fortunate to beat the Jaguars 19-14 the previous week because they were outgained by a whopping 218 yards in that contest.

Denver is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  It is winning in this spot by an average of 8.0 points per game.  The Broncos are 8-1 ATS off a win by 6 points or less, coming back to win by 10.3 points per game in this spot.  The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Denver is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season winning by 6.8 points per game.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -3.5

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 6-0 start while averaging 100.7 points per game and outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (17.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (17.7 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (16.7 ppg, 4.2 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.0 ppg, 9.0 apg, 5.3 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (13.0 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Thomas Welsh (11.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg) are also returning starters.

While UCLA has won all six of its games by double-digits, Texas A&M has already lost at home to USC this season and was very fortunate to beat Virginia Tech 68-65 on Saturday after erasing a 17-point deficit.  The Aggies lost four starters from last year in Danuel House (15.6 ppg), Jalen Jones (15.3 ppg), Alex Caruso (8.1 ppg, 5.0 apg) and Anthony Collins.

They have some young talent as well in Tyler Davis and DJ Hogg, but they're definitely down compared to last year.  Texas A&M is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  They'll be out-classed here by the loaded Bruins who are playing in their home state with tremendous fan support for this neutral site affair.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* Panthers/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Carolina +3

From a schedule standpoint I really like the Carolina Panthers this week.  They played last Thursday in a 23-20 win over the New Orleans Saints.  They have now had extra time to rest and prepare for the Oakland Raiders, and I expect a big effort from them here as they try and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Panthers have been dominant since their 1-5 start and bye week.  They have gone 3-1 in their four games since and should be 4-0, but they blew a 17-0 lead to the Chiefs despite not giving up a defensive touchdown.  They have led by double-digits in all four games since their bye, though they have had some trouble closing out games, but that just adds to their value because they haven't been winning in blowouts.

Oakland could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to its 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS start to the season.  But the Raiders are a very fraudulent team as they have gone 6-1 in games decided by a TD or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They rank 3rd in turnover differential at +10, which is unsustainable.  The Panthers rank 24th at -5 and have been unlucky in that department.  The Raiders have actually been outgained by their opponents on the season as well.

The Raiders are in an awful spot this week.  They just played in Mexico City on Monday Night Football and were fortunate to beat the Texans 27-20 with more fourth-quarter heroics from Derek Carr and company.  That game was played in high altitude at over 7,000 feet above sea level, which is nearly 2,000 feat above Denver, the NFL's highest city.  That game surely took a lot out of the Raiders, and they had a long flight back and will be working on a short week.  Couple that with the fact the the Panthers have had extra rest, and you can see that the schedule makers did them no favors.

The Panthers are in must-win mode from here on out.  They are two games back of the Atlanta Falcons for the division lead with a realistic chance of catching them since they still get them at home later in the season.  The Raiders can afford a loss because they have a lead over both the Broncos and Chiefs in the division.  And I just can't help but think they are due for a stinker after getting so lucky in close games thus far.

This Oakland defense is one of the worst in the NFL this season.  It gives up 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play, ranking 29th in total defense and 32nd in defensive yards per play.  The Panthers will have a big edge on the ground in this one.  Oakland ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 4.6 yards per carry to opponents this season.  Carolina ranks 2nd in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Raiders don't have much off a home-field advantage at all.  In fact, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Oakland is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games with a total set of 49.5 or higher.  Oakland is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning percentage between 40% & 49% on the season.

Carolina is 61-32 ATS in its last 93 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game.  Ron Rivera is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of the last six games as the coach of Carolina.  He has never lost in this spot with the Panthers winning by 14.2 points per game on average.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +13

The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued today as 13-point road favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.  I'll gladly take the home team and the points for a couple of different reasons.

It's worth mentioning that Lebron James and several Cleveland players attended the Michigan/Ohio State game yesterday and were down on the sidelines.  Their focus clearly isn't on beating the 76ers today in this 1:00 EST start time.

The 76ers always get up for the Cavs, while the same cannot be said for Cleveland.  In fact, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Cleveland.  Only once have they lost by more than 13 points during this stretch, and six of those games were decided by 10 points or less.  That includes a 101-102 Cleveland home victory in their only meeting this season as 12.5-point favorites on November 5th.

The Cavaliers are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take the 76ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens are sick and tired of losing to the Cincinnati Bengals.  They have lost five straight meetings in this series and haven't won since November 10, 2013, a span of 1,112 days.  With first place in the division on the line for the Ravens, and a chance to pretty much eliminate the Bengals from the race, they will be playing with extra motivation here Sunday.

"It's like that kid you just got to fight every day until you win," linebacker Terrell Suggs said. "They've been kind of picking on us. Five straight is five straight. Numbers don't lie. They've kind of had our number. We're going to see what we can do to change that."

"We're all tired of losing to the Bengals all the time," said linebacker C.J. Mosley, who has never beaten the Bengals. "That's the nature of football. You can talk about it all you want, but you got out there and do it Sunday."

Cincinnati is just 3-6-1 this season and 1.5 games behind Baltimore (5-5) and Pittsburgh (5-5).  Now the Bengals are in their worst shape of the season with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They lost All-Pro WR AJ Green in last week's loss to the Bills, and there may not be a more important receiver in the league to their team than Green.  The Bengals just don't have any other weapons at wide receiver.

The Bengals also lost running back Giovani Bernard to a season-ending ACL tear against the Bills.  Bernard is probably the most underrated player on the team.  He has accounted for 337 rushing yards and is second on the team in receptions (39).  Bernard is one of the best third-down backs in the league with not only his ability as a pass-catcher, but also his blitz pickup as he's as good as anyone in that department.

Not to mention the Bengals could be without their most important defensive player in Vontaze Burfict, who is questionable with a neck injury.  I just think that this team is starting to realize their season is over because there is no recovering from all these key injuries.  Even if they do show up Sunday they don't have the manpower to be competitive.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 2nd in total defense at 295.1 yards per game and 1st against the run at 76.0 yards per game.  They only allow 14.4 points per game at home this season.  And their defense should get an even bigger boost this week with the return of pass-rusher Elvis Dumervil, who hasn't played in 49 days.

Green has been a thorn in the Ravens' side, so they're glad they won't be seeing him.  He has caught 41 passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns in eight career games against Baltimore.  The Bengals are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season, losing by 6.7 points per game on average.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. AFC North foes.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

15* Florida/Florida State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -7.5

The Florida Gators are coming off a monstrous 16-10 win at LSU as 13.5-point underdogs that won them the SEC East for a second consecutive season.  The Gators deserve credit for gutting that win out, but they are now overvalued after such a huge victory, and this is a prime letdown spot even though it's against a rival like Florida State.

And that win over LSU was a complete fluke.  The Gators were outgained by 153 yards by the Tigers.  LSU had five trips into the Florida red zone and came away with 10 points.  They were held to one touchdown, one field goal, a missed field goal, and they were stopped on downs at the 1-yard line twice.

Florida's offense continues to be a problem.  The Gators managed just 270 total yards against LSU, and 36.2% of those came on one play on a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.  They were extremely lucky to win that game, and this is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to the 8-2 record against a soft schedule.

Florida is going to be much more concerned with saving up for next week's showdown with Alabama in Atlanta in the SEC Championship Game than beating Florida State.  The Gators have a laundry list of injuries right now as they'll be without up to 7 key players on defense, and at least 2 starting offensive linemen.  Coming off that physical game against LSU, they aren't going to have much left in the tank here.

Florida State is better than its 8-3 record and is legitimately a Top 10 team in the country in my eyes.  Two of its three losses came by a combined five points to UNC and Clemson.  But I've been very impressed with the way this team has responded since that loss to Clemson when they easily could have packed it in.

They came back the following week a little flat, but beat NC State 24-20 on the road.  Then they absolutely crushed Boston College 45-7 at home as 20.5-point favorites before going on the road and thumping Syracuse 45-14 as 23-point favorites.  Those efforts show that this team wants to finish the season strong.  And they don't have to save up for the ACC Championship Game, instead they're focus is 100% on beating Florida.

Something other than pride is on the line for the Seminoles, too.  This is Senior Night, and the seniors are trying to accomplish something that no other class in program history has been able to do.  They are looking to finish their careers with an 8-0 sweep of rivals Florida and Miami.  All told, Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 12-1 against Miami and Florida since taking over the program in 2010.

"I think it means a lot to the seniors' legacy here, and the foundation that we set," Seminoles' senior cornerback Marquez White said of the possibility of going 8-0 against their two rivals. "This is my last time playing in this stadium. Last home game. This is the way I want to go out. This is the way I want to be remembered. So, it means a lot to have this opportunity."

Florida State is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Florida.  The Seminoles won 27-2 over the Gators on the road last season, and Florida was SEC East champs then as well.  Plays against road underdogs (FLORIDA) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games followign a win.  The Seminoles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Jimbo Fisher is 8-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State, winning these games by 19.0 points per game on average.  LSU was a 13.5-point home favorite over Florida last week, and I believe FSU is every bit as good as LSU, and yet it is only laying 7.5 points here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +7.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are in an awful spot this week.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the SEC East with all that they had coming back.  And coming into last week, it looked like they would be playing this game against Vanderbilt with a chance to clinch the SEC East.  But that hasn't happened.

That's because Florida was supposed to lose at LSU as two-touchdown underdogs last week.  But the Gators were having none of it.  They beat LSU 16-10 with a huge goal-line stand in the closing seconds.  Now Florida has already been crowned SEC East champs and will play Alabama in the championship game for a second straight season.

That's a gut punch for the Vols, who actually beat the Gators on the field and now will have to watch them play Bama in Atlanta instead of them.  I don't see them showing up at all this week.  This is a team that has been decimated by injuries all season, too, and they are far from full strength right now.

Vanderbilt has a lot to play for.  The Commodores are 5-6 and looking to get to a bowl game for the first time in three seasons under current head coach Derek Mason.  They have put themselves in this position by impressively upsetting Ole Miss 38-17 at home last week as 9.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Rebels by 118 yards in that contest.

Tennessee is off a 63-37 win over Missouri last week when it still had something to play for, but that result has it overvalued here.  And that 26-point win was very misleading as the Vols were actually outgained by 131 yards while giving up a ridiculous 740 total yards to the Tigers.

This Vols' defense has been gashed time and time again on the ground.  They have given up 353 or more rushing yards in four of their last six games, including over 400 yards on the grounds three times during this stretch.  Vanderbilt has one of the best backs in the SEC in Ralph Webb, who is primed for a huge game against this soft, banged-up Tennessee defense.

Five of Vanderbilt's six losses this season have come by single-digits, so they have been competitive week in and week out.  Tennessee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off a cover the previous week.  The Vols are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.  I believe the Commodores earn their way to a bowl game with an outright victory this week, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 206

This is the rare home-and-home game in the NBA.  The Knicks and Hornets played an overtime thriller in New York last night.  The Knicks prevailed 113-111 in overtime.  That game saw 208 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now oddsmakers have set the total at 206 in the rematch.  I believe it's too high.  Familiarity favors defense, and points will be very hard to come by for both teams tonight.  I don't expect either team to get to the 100-point mark in this one.  They'll both be fatigued off an OT game, and that hurts teams offensively more than defensively.

These teams have combined for 208 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged 191.6 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those nine meetings, which is more than 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.  There's clearly some value here with the UNDER.

New York is 21-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Knicks last 53 overall.  Charlotte is 89-53 to the UNDER in its last 142 after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa Hawkeyes -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are way undervalued right now after their 41-74 loss to Virginia yesterday.  Virginia is one of the best teams in the country and the Hawkeyes weren't ready for their pack-line defense as they shot just 31.2%.  But now they're up against a team they can handle in Memphis.

Memphis is overvalued after starting the season 4-0 with wins over UTRGV, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Savannah State and McNeese State.  But it was beaten 51-60 yesterday against a Providence team that is way down this season after losing its two best players in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.

And UTRGV and Savannah State are two common opponents who both Memphis and Iowa played at home.  Iowa beat Savannah State 116-84 and UTRGV 95-67, outscoring them by an average of 30 points per game.  Memphis beat UTRGV 94-75 and Savannah State 99-86, only outscoring them by 16 points per game on average.  It's clear that the Hawkeyes are the better team here.  Roll with Iowa Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +8

West Virginia is coming off a 'dream-crushing' 28-56 home loss to Oklahoma last week.  Had they won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the Big 12.  But now they have officially been eliminated as they have two conference losses and the Sooners haven't lost yet in conference play.

"We put a lot into (the Oklahoma) game, and it didn't go the way we wanted it to," Holgorsen said Tuesday. "We're disappointed with it, but we've got a tough one on the road against Iowa State, and you saw what they did to Texas Tech. It's going to be the toughest week of the year, but I'm anxious to see how the guys respond."

I expect the Mountaineers to suffer a hangover effect here and to not even show up at all against Iowa State.  I also think this is one of the more overrated teams in the country due to playing such a soft schedule and winning so many close games to pad their record.  That was pretty evident last week when they took a step up in class and lost to Oklahoma by 28.

Iowa State has been a money-making machine for backers as it has been undervalued week in and week out.  The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes a 3-point loss to Baylor as 17.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Oklahoma State as 14-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Oklahoma as 21-point dogs.  Those three results there show that they can play with the big boys of the Big 12.

But the Cyclones keep getting better and better as they season goes on.  After picking up their first Big 12 victory in a 31-24 win at Kansas, they came through with their best performance of the season last week in a 66-10 blowout of Texas Tech as 3-point home dogs.  They racked up 608 yards of offense while limiting the Red Raiders' potent attack to 306 yards, outgaining them by 302 yards in that contest.

Now it's Senior Day for the Cyclones and they want to win one more game before their season is over as this is their final game, while West Virginia gets to play Baylor next week.  I just think this is a tremendous spot to back the Cyclones as they will be fully engaged, while the Mountaineers are primed to play their worst game of the season given the terrible spot they're in mentally right now.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.  Iowa State is 6-0 ATS in home games off two straight games where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These six trends combine for a 36-1 system backing the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -10

The South Florida Bulls are tied with the Temple Owls for first place in the AAC East Division.  They Owls do have the tiebreaker and would need to lose to East Carolina for the Bulls to have a chance.  But I like the fact that the Bulls play early on Saturday at 12:00 EST while Temple plays at 7:30 EST that night.  So the Bulls know they have to take care of their business first and won't be worrying about what Temple is doing.  They will be 100% focused on beating UCF.

Since losing to Temple, the Bulls have responded in a big way by beating Navy 52-45 at home in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They led that game 42-14 at halftime before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they had their bye week before going on the road and beating Memphis 49-42.  Then they won 35-27 at SMU last week.

UCF is a great story as it went 0-12 last season and then picked up its 6th win with a 24-3 home victory two weeks ago over a Cincinnati team that has clearly quit.  The Knights are just happy with being bowl eligible, and that showed last week as they lost 20-35 at home to Tulsa despite being 1.5-point favorites.  They were thoroughly outplayed by Tulsa as they were outgained by 153 yards.

In fact, the Knights have been an extremely fraudulent team all season.  They have been outgained in each of their last seven games despite finding a way to win four of them.  They are getting outgained by 94.0 yards per game in conference play despite their 4-3 record.

The mismatch in this game is on offense, where the Knights are terrible and the Bulls have one of the best units in the country.  The Knights only average 358 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  The Bulls average 43.2 points per game, 516.2 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this year.

UCF puts up just 312.4 yards per game and 4.5 per play in conference action, while South Florida averages 524.6 yards per game and 7.3 per play in AAC action.  The Bulls average 117 yards per game more than their opponents allow, which is the sixth-best number in the nation.  They had a trio of QB Quinton Flowers, RB Marlon Mack and WR Rodney Adams that is one of the best triplets in the country.

South Florida rolled UCF 44-3 on the road last season as 24.5-point favorites.  The Bulls are every bit as good as they were last year, and while the Knights are improved this season, again their 6-5 record is fraudulent.  Now the Bulls are only 10-point favorites at home in the rematch after being 24.5-point road chalk last year.  There is clearly some value here, especially with what's at stake for the Bulls in the AAC, while UCF is simply content with going to a bowl game.

Plays on home favorites (S FLORIDA) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons, winning by 19.2 points per game on average.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +26

Kentucky will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2010.  The Wildcats have had a great turnaround season after starting 0-2 and going 6-3 the rest of the way.  They clinched their bowl berth with a 49-13 win over Austin Peay last week and didn't have to put much effort into that game at all, saving up for Louisville this week.

The Wildcats are 5-6 the past two seasons going into the Louisville game, needing a win to get bowl eligible.  The played the Cardinals tough in both games as they lost 40-44 in 2014 and 24-38 in 2015.  They fell apart in both of those games late, especially last season as they blew a 24-7 lead and were outscored 31-0 in the second half.

But now the Wildcats won't be playing with so much pressure on them since they already clinched their bowl berth.  They will be sort of 'free-wheeling' it here and playing with house's money.  I expect a big effort from them here as they look to get revenge on Louisville after narrow misses the past two seasons.

Louisville is in a massive letdown spot here off its 10-36 loss to Houston as 17-point favorites last week.  The Cardinals were in perfect position to make the four-team playoff after getting several teams to lose in front of them.  But they couldn't take care of their business, and now with their playoff dreams crushed, I expect a hangover effect here that will not allow them to play up to their full potential.

Kentucky is playing better than it is getting credit for.  It has actually outgained seven of its last nine opponents.  The Wildcats boast a prolific rushing attack that has produced at least 258 yards on the ground in five of their last six games.  They have two stud running backs who have both gone over 1,000 rushing yards on the season.  I think they'll be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack and play keep away from Lamar Jackson.

Louisville is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games off a road loss.  The Cardinals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Kentucky hasn't lost to Louisville by more than 25 points in any of the last nine meetings, making for a 9-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 26-point spread.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa +9.5

This is a rare occasion in college basketball where two teams will be playing back-to-back.  Xavier and Northern Iowa squared off just six days ago in the Tire Pros Invitational in Orlando.  The Musketeers won 67-59 after outscoring the Panthers by eight points in the second half and pulling away late.

The Musketeers were only 5.5-point favorites in that game and barely covered, and now they're 9.5-point favorites in the rematch because they are at home.  But this won't be the normal home-court advantage that Xavier usually has as kids are home for Thanksgiving Break.  Plus, I love taking the team that lost the first game in the rematch in situations like this one because they want it more.

Northern Iowa is one of the country's top mid-major programs annually and isn't used to losing.  The Panthers have a 4-2 record since the start of the 2014-15 season against Top 25 teams, and they were 3-0 last season against ranked opponents.  To get to the championship game last week, Northern Iowa throttled Arizona State 82-63 as 3.5-point dogs before upsetting Oklahoma 73-67 as 6-point dogs.

"We've been playing big schools for a long time now and we've beaten them," senior guard Jeremy Morgan told reporters this week. "It's not easy, but we know we can do it."

"It's a good opportunity for us to be able to go out and play a good team like that twice in a row just to prove we can play with anybody," UNI junior forward Klint Carlson said.

Xavier is 5-0 this season, but four of those wins came by 8 points or fewer.  It barely beat Lehigh 84-81 in its home opener, needed overtime to beat a terrible Missouri team 83-82 as 14.5-point favorites, and topped Clemson 83-77.  This team is clearly overrated right now based on those results, and they know they'll be in a dog fight today.

"I think they're going to bring their 'A' game when they come back," Trevon Bluiett said. "They've kind of got some motivation now, so, you know, I think we'll be ready for it as well. I think it'll be pretty exciting."

The Panthers are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Panthers are 37-18-4 ATS in their last 59 games overall.  They have been an undervalued commodity for three straight seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Nebraska/UCLA ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA -9

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 5-0 start while averaging 104.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (19.0 ppg, 9.8 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (17.6 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (17.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.6 ppg, 9.4 apg, 5.8 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (14.4 ppg, 3.8 apg) and Thomas Welsh (11.2 ppg, 9.4 rpg) are also returning starters.

Nebraska went 16-18 last season and lost its two best players from that squad in Shavon Shields (16.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Andrew White III (16.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  The program suffered a major blow in the offseason when White unexpectedly left the program and transferred to Syracuse. 

UCLA beat up on Portland 99-77 last night, which allowed its starters to play fewer minutes down the stretch.  Nebraska didn't have the same luxury as it beat an undermanned Dayton team that was missing two key players 80-78.  Three players played at least 30 minutes in that contest for the Huskers.

Nebraska is 10-28 ATS in its last 38 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Cornhuskers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Nebraska is 16-30 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

Plays against neutral court teams as an underdog (NEBRASKA) - after a combined score of 155 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more three straight games are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with UCLA Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Weber State -3.5

Weber State is the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference this season.  Head coach Randy Rahe is 208-113 in his 10 seasons here, and just signed a new eight-year contract.  He returns four starters and a deep cast of reserves from a team that went 26-9 last season.

I think the Wildcats are being undervalued here because they are off to a 2-2 start this season, losing true road games at Pepperdine and Stanford already.  They have six players averaging at least 8.5 points per game, including Jeremy Senglin (21.5 ppg), who is likely to win Big Sky MVP this season.

Iona did go 22-11 last season and made the NCAA Tournament before losing to Iowa State.  But the Gaels lost three starters from last season, including their do-everything guard A.J. English (22.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Isaiah Williams (12.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg).

I haven't been impressed with Iona at all this season.  They lost by 21 as 14.5-point dogs at Florida State, which is one of the bottom tier teams in the ACC.  And they lost by 15 at Nevada as 12.5-point dogs.  Their only win came against a terrible Drake team by a final of 64-53.  Drake went 7-24 last season and is 1-3 this season with losses to Missouri-KC and South Dakota.

Iona is 4-13 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Weber State crushed Cal Davis 86-58 to deliver the goods for us last night and will have plenty left in the tank for Iona tonight.  Bet Weber State Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -2.5

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now.  They are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the price on them is cheap right now.  But a big reason for their struggles was injuries, most notably to starting point guard George Hill.

But Hill returned to the lineup last time out and the Jazz got back on track by crushing the Denver Nuggets 108-83 at home.  Hill leads the team in scoring at 20.6 points per game while shooting 55% from the field.  He has missed eight games this season already, and they are 5-3 without him compared to 3-5 without him.

This will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Jaz, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  The Hawks will be playing their 7th game in 11 days and have shown signs of wearing down.  Atlanta is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall, but it is still getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Utah is 59-34 ATS in its last 93 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread.  The Hawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on one days' rest.  The Jazz are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on SMU +1.5

The SMU Mustangs went 25-5 last season and were clearly one of the better teams in the country.  Tim Jankovich, hired four years ago as an assistant as essentially the coach-in-waiting, is more than capable of replacing Larry Brown. He won 104 games in five seasons at Illinois State before arriving at SMU, and even went 9-0 last season while Brown sat out with a suspension.

Jankovich is working with a great team this season as the Mustangs return three starters in Ben Moore (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg last year), Shake Milton (10.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Sterling Brown (10.1 ppg, 53.6% 3-pointers).  These three have helped the Mustangs out to an impressive 4-1 start this season with a 72-44 win over Gardner Webb, a 91-64 win over Eastern Michigan as 12.5-point favorites, a 76-67 win over Pitt as 5-point favorites and an 84-57 win over UC-Santa Barbara as 19-point favorites.

Milton (12.0 ppg, 4.0 apg this year), Brown (11.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.0 apg) and Moore (10.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) have all gotten off to nice starts this season.  But it's been Semi Ojeleye (20.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg) who has stolen the show.  He's a Duke transfer who is already contributing in a big way after sitting out last season.  Jarrey Foster (10.2 ppg) has taken his game to the next level after playing a significant role off the bench last year.

I know SMU didn't fare well in a loss to Michigan, but that was a tough spot as the Wolverines run a bunch of different defenses that are tough to prepare for.  And they had no time to prepare as they were playing a second straight day after beating Pitt the night before.  I like the fact that this team is battle-tested with this tough early schedule.

USC lost its 2nd and 3rd leading scorers from last season in Nikola Jovanovic and Julian Jacobs.  The Trojans had four other players transfer.  They are counting on up to four freshmen to contribute significantly this season.  They are off to a 4-0 start this year which has them overvalued, but they have played such a soft schedule.

This will be the Trojans' toughest test of the season.  And they certainly aren't hitting on all cylinders offensively in the early going as they are shooting just 40.8% as a team overall and 30.5% from 3-point range.  SMU is shooting 47.5% as a team and 38.9% from 3-point range against a much tougher schedule.

The Mustangs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  SMU is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  USC is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Trojans are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take SMU Friday.

20* TCU/Texas Big 12 Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -2.5

It's clear by their reaction on social media that the Texas players love Charlie Strong and don't want to see him go.  They are taking responsibility for their struggles this season and not putting the blame on Strong.  I look for them to come up with a huge effort to try and win this game for him in what is a 'rally the troops' type of game for these players.

There's no doubt that Texas can't lose to Kansas, ever, period.  But the the Jayhawks didn't win that game, the Longhorns clearly lost it.  They committed six turnovers to essentially give the game away.  They outgained the Jayhawks by 71 yards in that game after outgaining West Virginia by 153 yards and Texas Tech by 176 the two games prior.

Let's not forget that TCU easily could have lost at Kansas earlier this season, too.  The Horned Frogs only beat the Jayhawks 24-23 as 28.5-point favorites.  But unlike Texas, they were actually outplayed by the Jahawks.  They were outgained by 108 yards in that narrow win over Kansas.

TCU has given a lot of flat efforts here of late, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has been outgained in four of its last six games overall.  It lost 24-27 (OT) at home to Texas Tech, 10-34 at West Virginia, and then last week lost 6-31 at home to Oklahoma State.  That game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs were outgained by 198 yards by the Cowboys.

Texas will not only be motivated to show its support for Strong, but also to get bowl eligible with a win.  TCU can win next week at home against Kansas State and get bowl eligible, so this game is more important for the Longhorns.  Plus, they want revenge from the embarrassing 7-50 road loss to the Horned Frogs last season.

Strong is 11-2 ATS off two more more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.  The Longorns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season.  The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in all games this season.  TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - off a home loss by 14 or more points are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Texas Friday.

15* Washington/Washington State Apple Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 64

I fully expect a defensive battle in the Apple Cup with what's at stake.  These teams have never had this much riding on the rivalry.  The Pac-12 North title is up for grabs as the winner will be going to the conference championship game.  I expect this game to be played closer to the vest than normal, and for points to be very hard to come by.

Washington boasts one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 17.9 points, 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  It is holding opponents to 10 points, 73 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play below their season averages.

The biggest reason for Washington State's improvement has been the defense.  The Cougars are now above average on this side of the ball for the first time in a long time.  They only give up 25.5 points and 408 yards per game, holding opponents to 6.3 points and 34 yards per game less than their season averages.

Washington State loves to throw the ball, but Washington ranks No. 17 in pass efficiency defense.  The Huskies have held their opponents to 85 yards per game below their season averages in Pac-12 play.  The Cougars rank 49th in pass efficiency defense and have held their conference opponents to 25 yards per game below their season averages.

Just looking at the series history it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings while not once topping 63 combined points.  They have combined for 55, 44, 44, 59, 59, 63, 30 and 29 points in the last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 47.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than this posted total of 64.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WASHINGTON ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Cougars last 15 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +11

The NC State Wolfpack sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They would love nothing more than to punch their tickets to the postseason while simultaneously knocking rival UNC out of ACC Coastal Division contention with a win Friday.  But it's not like the Tar Heels have much of a shot to win the Coastal anyway because they would need to win and have Virginia Tech lose to Virginia as 18.5-point home favorites.

I think the value is prime here with NC State because they have lost five of their last six games overall.  Ever since blowing that field goal against Clemson and losing in overtime, they just haven't been the same.  But this is a 'circle the wagons' type of game that the Wolfpack will certainly show up for against their in-state rival.

The Tar Heels seem to just be going through the motions their past two games.  They lost 27-28 as 10.5-point favorites at Duke two weeks ago and were outgained by 64 yards.  Then they were actually outgained by 15 yards against The Citadel last week as 23-point favorites in what was a very misleading final score.

From a matchup standpoint I like the Wolfpack here.  They have an underrated defense that is holding opponents to 58 yards per game less than their season averages.  UNC is giving up 6 more yards per game than its opponents average.  And the Wolfpack defensive line is their strength with their ability to get after opposing quarterbacks.  They should be able to get to Mitch Trubisky and knock him off his spots.

These teams have faced very similar strength of schedules.  In fact, the Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule.  That's important because North Carolina is only outgaining opponents by 43 yards per game while NC State is outgaining them by 62 yards per game on the season.  The talent gap between these teams is much closer than their records would suggest.

This is certainly a rivalry game where you want the underdog.  The underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings with 12 outright upsets over the past 18 seasons!  NC State is 9-1 ATS in road games off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the past three seasons.  Roll with NC State Friday.

15* UC Davis/Weber State Midnight EST BAILOUT on Weber State -4

Weber State is the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference this season.  Head coach Randy Rahe is 208-113 in his 10 seasons here, and just signed a new eight-year contract.  He returns four starters and a deep cast of reserves from a team that went 26-9 last season.

I think the Wildcats are being undervalued here because they are off to a 1-2 start this season, losing road games at Pepperdine and Stanford already.  They have four players averaging double-digits scoring, including Jeremy Senglin (22.0 ppg), who is likely to win Big Sky MVP this season.

Conversely, UC Davis is being overvalued due to its 4-1 start this season.  The one loss was a 14-point setback to Tennessee State, while the four wins have come against the likes of Santa Clara, Northern Arizona, Holy Names and Sacramento State.

UC Davis is being picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West Conference.  This is a team that went just 11-19 last season and loses three key starters in Josh Fox (14.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg last year), Neal Monson (9.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Brynton Lemar (10.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  They have their two guards back, but they are really hurting on the interior.

Weber State has had a full week to prepare for this game and get better after last playing on November 17th.  UC Davis doesn't have the same luxury having last played on November 21st.  Weber State is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 55 points or less.  The Wildcats are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games following a road loss where they scored less than 60 points.  The Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. Big West opponents, while the Aggies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Sky foes.  Take Weber State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -14.5

The UCLA Bruins are absolutely loaded this season.  They are off to a 4-0 start while averaging 105.7 points per game and outscoring opponents by 27.7 points per game.  They brought back four starters from last season and added in two of the top freshman recruits in the country.

Freshman TJ Leaf (20.2 ppg, 10.0 rpg) is an absolute load inside.  He's a McDonald's All-American who scored 3,022 points in his prep career.  Bryce Alford (18.8 ppg) and Isaac Hamilton (17.2 ppg, 4.8 apg) are the two top players back from last year.  Freshman Lonzo Ball (16.2 ppg, 9.0 apg, 6.2 rpg) is going to be one-and-done.  Aaron Holiday (14.5 ppg, 4.3 apg) and Thomas Welsh (10.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg) are also returning starters.

Portland went just 12-20 last season.  First-year head coach Terry Porter has done a good job of getting the Pilots to 3-0, but the wins have come against UC Riverside, San Jose State and Lewis Clark.  This is a big step up in class for the Pilots as they will be overmatched at all positions.

Portland is 11-29 ATS in its last 40 vs. teams who give up at least 77 points per game.  Steve Alford is 13-4 ATS off three straight wins by 15 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Bruins have won all four games by at least 15 points this season, and that streak will improve to five as they get the win and cover in the opener of the Wooden Classic.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

15* LSU/Texas A&M Thanksgiving Night Dessert on LSU -6.5

Both of these teams could be lacking motivation. It comes down to which team you trust more, and for me that is clearly LSU, which is still one of the best teams in the country in my opinion despite having four losses. Texas A&M is way more fraudulent despite having a better record at 8-3.

The Aggies have been an overvalued commodity for two months now, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their last three games really have told the story about where this team’s focus is at. They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, lost 28-29 as 7-point home favorites over Ole Miss, and only beat UTSA 23-10 as 27-point home favorites last week.

Things really turned for this team when they lost starting QB Trevor Knight to a season-ending injury against Mississippi State. Backup Jake Hubenak isn’t terrible, but he’s also not the runner that Knight was. Their offense clearly misses that dimension as Knight had rushed for 583 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 per carry before the injury. Hubenak has rushed 31 times for 44 yards, an average of just 1.4 per carry.

LSU has four losses, but it easily could have won all four games. It lost 14-16 to Wisconsin, 13-18 to Auburn after a last-second TD was called back, 10-0 to Alabama in what was a tie game in the fourth quarter, and then 10-16 to Florida last week after the Tigers were stopped from the 1-yard line twice in the closing seconds.

I think that loss to Florida last week has the Tigers undervalued here. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game and didn’t meet expectations. But they probably should have won by two touchdowns when you look at the box score. They outgained Florida 423 to 270 for the game, or by 153 total yards. But they were stopped at the goal line on two separate drives, and Florida converted one of those into a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.

These players love Ed Orgeron, and similarly to when they won last year when Les Miles was expected to get fired, I think they will show up for their interim head coach here. They have responded well from adversity. After that 10-0 loss to Alabama and having their SEC West title dreams crushed, they came back the next week and rolled Arkansas 38-10 on the road while outgaining the Razorbacks by 256 yards.

When you compare common opponents LSU has a big edge. The Tigers are 3-2 against the same five teams that Texas A&M has played while outgaining them by 64.0 yards per game and holding them to 319.4 yards per game. Texas A&M is 2-3 against those same five teams, getting outgained by 66.8 yards per game and giving up 481.0 yards per game.

LSU is by far the supremely talented team in this matchup, and it has big fundamental advantages as well. The Tigers should be able to run all over the Aggies, and their defense should shut them down with a backup QB. The Tigers average 232 rushing yards per game and 6.2 per carry, while the Aggies give up 180 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.

LSU gives up 14.1 points and 308 yards per game on the season, while Texas A&M allows 21.1 points and 428 yards per game. The Tigers only allow 14.6 points and 304.6 yards per game in conference play, while the Aggies give up 26.9 points and 495.3 yards per game against conference opponents.

Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Aggies are 0-7 ATS in November home games over the last three seasons. LSU owns Texas A&M, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Four of those have come with Kevin Sumlin as the head coach in College Station.  Roll with LSU Thursday.

20* Redskins/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +7

The Cowboys have always been a public team. That has been even more so the case this season as they have actually delivered for backers on a regular basis. Not only are they 9-1 straight up, but they are also 9-0-1 against the spread. They are the only team left in the NFL that has not lost ATS all season.

They have barely escaped with covers in three of their last four games. They covered in OT with a touchdown against the Eagles as 5-point home favorites. The Steelers missed four two-point conversions, otherwise that game would have played out much differently as the Cowboys won 35-30 and covered the 3-point spread. And then they added a field goal in the closing seconds against the Ravens last week to win 27-17 as 7-point favorites.

I think it is time to fade the Cowboys this week. They cannot possibly be more overvalued than they are right now due to their incredible ATS record, and now they’re being asked to lay a full touchdown against a division rival in the Washington Redskins. And I would argue that the Redskins are the next-best team in the NFC East, and not very far behind the Cowboys.

The Redskins just keep getting better and better. After an 0-2 start, they have gone 6-1-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But unlike the Cowboys, this team continues to lack respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers. They are winning the box score every week, so it has been no fluke.

The Redskins have outgained each of their last six opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game. They won 16-10 in Baltimore and outgained them by four yards, they won 27-20 over Philadelphia and outgained them by 254 yards, they lost 17-20 at Detroit despite outgaining them by 69 yards, they tied the Bengals 27-27 in London despite outgaining them by 131 yards, they beat the Vikings 26-20 and outgained them by 57 yards, and last week they won 42-24 over the Packers while outgaining them by 91 yards.

This Washington offense can score on anyone. The Redskins have put up 451.8 yards per game in their last five games overall. They are second in the NFL with 6.4 offensive yards per play on the season, which is only behind the Atlanta Falcons. Kirk Cousins is playing as well as anyone at the quarterback position, but the key is that they have found a running game.

The Redskins have rushed for an average of 148.6 yards per game in their last five contests. Robert Kelley has emerged as the lead back and rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers last week. He is a fierce runner who doesn’t go down easily. He has rushed for 424 yards and four scores while averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season.

The final point I want to make here is that home-field advantage means nothing in this series. The road team is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Dallas. They will be playing with revenge from their 27-23 loss to the Cowboys earlier this season, and I expect this game to be decided by less than a touchdown once again.  Bet the Redskins Thursday.

15* Vikings/Lions Thanksgiving Day No-Brainer on UNDER 43

I don’t see a whole lot of value in the side of this game as I feel it is priced about right. But I am seeing some value with the total here of 43 points and playing it UNDER the number. I look for this to be a very low scoring game on Thanksgiving Day.

This is a battle between two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Vikings rank 32nd in the league in total offense at 293.8 yards per game, while the Lions rank 25th at 331.7 yards per game.

The Vikings do have one of the elite defenses in the NFL as they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game and 3rd in total defense at 306.9 yards per game. The Lions are a respectable 16th in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game and 19th in total defense at 358.2 yards per game.

I think the fact that Arizona and Minnesota combined for 54 points last week has the books setting this number higher than it should be. But that 30-24 final was very misleading. The Vikings were held to just 217 yards of offense, but they got a 100-yard interception return TD and a 104-yard kickoff return TD. The Cardinals only had 290 yards of offense in the game.

These teams are very familiar with each other as they are obviously division opponents, but they also just squared off on November 6th in their first meeting of the season. That game was tied 16-16 at the end of regulation before the Lions won 22-16 in overtime for 38 combined points. The Lions had done nothing on offense until their final two possessions where they drove down for the game-tying field goal in a matter of seconds, and then the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

And this division rivalry has certainly seen its fair share of low-scoring games recently. Indeed, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings while exceeding 42 combined points only once. They have averaged just 34 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is 9 points less than this total of 43.

The UNDER is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North opponents. The UNDER is 7-0 in Vikings last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 19-8-1 in Vikings lat 28 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lions last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/UNC Maui Invitational No-Brainer on North Carolina -4.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been the most impressive team in the country thus far.  They have gone 6-0 with all six wins coming by 15 points or more.  They are averaging nearly 97 points per contest and winning by 29.3 points per game.  Now they're another win from capturing the Maui Invitational title.

Wisconsin doesn't have the firepower to keep up.  We saw that in the Badgers' only loss this season, a 67-79 setback at Creighton despite being 1.5-point favorites.  And Creighton runs and up-tempo style similar to that of the Tar Heels, who just beat Oklahoma State 107-75 as 9-point favorites yesterday.

UNC lost to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 in 2015 and hasn't forgotten.  "Wisconsin knocked us out two years ago, so, of course, it would be great," Justin Jackson said. "But right now we're trying to just focus on Wisconsin. We know they're a really good team, so we've got to focus on them, but obviously a title would be great."

The Badgers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous games.  The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  North Carolina is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet North Carolina Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz will be extremely motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, so they are clearly undervalued right now.  And one of those losses came against the Nuggets just three days ago in Denver, so they'll want revenge as well.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, come in on a 5-0 ATS winning streak.  They are starting to get a lot of respect from the books, and it's time to fade them.  And this is a very tired team right now as the Nuggets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days.

Meanwhile, the Jazz come in rested as they had two days off since losing to the Nuggets on Sunday.  They're hoping to get starting point guard George Hill back from injury.  And they have certainly owned this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.

The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Salt Lake City.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a bad loss to the Golden State Warriors at home, which was the second of a back-to-back after beating Oklahoma City 115-111 in overtime on the road the night before.  And they were missing several key players in that contest against the Warriors.

But now the Pacers are expected to be healthier for this showdown against the Atlanta Hawks.  Jeff Teague is probable, while Paul George is on the probable side of questionable after missing the past three games.  Myles Turner is also probable.  The Pacers are 6-3 at home this season, while the Hawks are just 3-3 on the road.

The Hawks have lost three straight coming in and are clearly starting to wear down.  They even lost 94-112 at home to the Pelicans last night as 8-point favorites.  Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough as it gets in terms of rest situations in the NBA.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a loss.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are way overvalued right now due to going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are now being asked to lay points on the road to the Denver Nuggets when they really shouldn't be favored.

The Bulls will start to wear down tonight.  They will be playing their 5th straight road games here and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing both the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles on back-to-back nights Saturday and Sunday.

The Denver Nuggets have been an undervalued commodity all season.  They've gone 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in their last four, yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers because of their 5-8 straight up record.  But they've have some real tough luck in close games this season.  They will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days here.

Chicago is 13-33 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Denver.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio) -7

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are looking to pull off the remarkable feat of starting 0-6 and finishing 6-0.  They currently sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  You can bet they will be fired up to win this game on Senior Night and cap off this amazing run.

Ball State has nothing to play for right now.  It sits at 4-7 on the season after a road loss at Toledo, which was its fourth straight defeat, so it will not be going bowling.  And the Cardinals last played on November 16, while the Redhawks last played on November 12, giving Miami a huge scheduling advantage as it has had nine days off in between games, while Ball State has only had five days off.

It was really clear from the beginning that Miami was better than its 0-6 start as it actually outgained four of its first six opponents despite the record.  And now once the schedule has softened a bit, the Redhawks have taken advantage by going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games with four of those wins coming by double-digits.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Ball State and Miami have played the same four opponents. Ball State is 1-3 against them while losing by 2.5 points per game and giving up 508.0 yards per game defensively.  Miami is 3-1 against them while winning by 5.5 points per game and giving up only 333.0 yards per game defensively.

And defense is clearly where this game will be one as the Redhawks will get stops while the Cardinals will not.  Miami allows just 24.7 points, 347 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  Ball State allows 30.9 points, 474 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this year.

Ball State is 0-6 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two years.  Miami is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their lat five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Redhawks.  Take Miami (Ohio) Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Auburn +6

The Auburn Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Bruce Pearl is in his third season and finally has his players in place, which is why this team has performed so well in the early going.

They have guard T.J. Dunans back, who averaged 11.6 points in 16 games before injuring his left knee last season.  Guard Bryce Brown set an Auburn freshman record with 78 3-pointers.  Forward Horace Spencer finished third in the SEC in blocked shots last year.  Forward Danjel Purifoy was a redshirt freshman last year who was their top recruit.  Guard Mustapha Heron is a freshman five-star signee.  Guard Ronnie Johnson was a graduate transfer who average 9.4 points at Houston last year.

Auburn is 3-0 this season and 2-0 ATS in lined games.  It beat North Florida 83-66, Georgia State 83-65 as 7.5-point favorites and Eastern Kentucky 85-64 as 15.5-point favorites.  Texas Tech is also 3-0 with wins over Houston Baptist, North Texas and Eastern Kentucky.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Tech beat Eastern Kentucky by 19, while Auburn beat them by 21.

Purifoy (16.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Heron (14.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg) are clearly living up to their massive potential in the early going.  Jared Harper (11.7 ppg) and Brown (10.0 ppg) are also double-digit scorers.  Harper was rated as the No. 21 point guard nationally and the No. 6 recruit out of Georgia.  The Red Raiders are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.  Bet Auburn Tuesday.

15* Raptors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5

The Toronto Raptors are extremely tired right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  They started showing signs of slowing down last night in a 99-102 loss at Sacramento as they shot just 40% from the floor and easily went under the 211-point total.

I think the fatigue will hurt the Raptors a lot more on offense than it will on defense tonight.  Plus, the Raptors will be up against a Clippers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers only allow 95.4 points per game on the season, including 90.1 points per game at home.

These teams met twice last season and both games went UNDER the total.  They scored 171 combined points with a 203.5-point total in their lone meeting in Los Angeles.  Then they scored 204 combined points with a 206.5-point total in their rematch in Toronto.  The UNDER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles is 21-4 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons, including 15-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Clippers are 12-1 UNDER in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents ty 3-plus points per game over the last two years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Texans/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland -5.5

The Oakland Raiders are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They  have absolutely dominated the box score and the scoreboard in their last two games as they keep improving, and now they've had a bye week to make even further improvements and prepare for Houston in this Mexico City showdown.

The Raiders beat the Bucs 30-24 on the road in overtime in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Bucs by 356 yards in that contest.  Then they outgained the Broncos by 98 yards in a 30-20 home victory last time out.

Oakland boasts one of the league's top offenses as it is averaging 27.2 points and 401 yards per game this season.  It has put up at least 30 points in three consecutive games coming in.  It has a huge advantage on that side of the ball over the Texans, who rank 30th in total offense at 308.8 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.9 points per game.

And the Raiders have really improved defensively over the past couple games.  They held the Bucs to just 270 total yards before giving up just 299 to the Raiders last time out.  This defense has the talent, so it was only a matter of time before they got it turned around.

The Raiders are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in road games this season.  The Texans are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 15.0 points per game.  Their offense is averaging just 11.5 points and 260.5 yards per game away from home.  Their only road win came against the Jaguars 24-21 in a game they should have lost last week as they were outgained by 54 yards.

Oakland is 9-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Monday games.  While the Raiders are extremely healthy right now, the Texans have a laundry list of injuries coming into this one.  Bet the Raiders  Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -9

The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters this season and added in G Marcus Foster, who sat out after transferring from Kansas State.  Foster is averaging 16.7 points and shooting 57.9% from 3-point range through thre games.  They are one of the top teams in the Big East, and that has already been proven in the early going.

The Blue Jays are 4-0 this season.  They only beat Missouri-KC 89-82, but that was a misleading final as they took the foot off the gas after leading 55-34 at half.  They came back and beat the favorite to win the Big Ten in Wisconsin 79-67 as 1.5-point dogs.  Then they beat Washington State 103-77 as 14.5-point favorites before dismantling NC State 112-94 as 5.5-point favorites last night.

Ole Miss went 20-12 last season, but it lost three starters from that team in Stefan Moody (23.6 ppg, 4.3 apg), Tomasz Gielo (9.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and Anthony Perez (7.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg).  The loss of Moody is huge because he was one of the very best players in the country.

Ole Miss is 4-0 this season as well, but I've been much less impressed with its results than Creighton's.  The Rebels only beat Tennessee-Martin 86-83 as 17-point home favorites and UMass 90-88 as 11-point home favorites.  Those two results were alarming, but they also only beat Oral Robers 95-88 as 8-point favorites on a neutral court.  They did cover in an 81-68 win as 2.5-point favorites of St. Joseph's, but St. Joe's is way down this season and that cover is getting them too much respect from the books today.

Since this is the second game in two days for these teams, it's important to look at how many minutes players played last night.  Well, Creighton is so deep that it didn't play anyone more than 29 minutes, and only one player played more than 26 minutes.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss played its best players big minutes.  Deandre Burnett played 36 minutes, Cullen Neal played 34 and Sebastian Saiz played 33.  So, I think this back-to-back hurts Ole Miss more because it lacked the depth of Creighton.

The Bluejays are 17-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Creighton is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Bluejays are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Creighton Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Pistons OVER 205.5

This is a very low total for any game that involves the Houston Rockets.  In fact, this is the second-lowest total for a Rockets game this season.  The lowest was 200.5 last time out against the Jazz, and they easily went over that with 213 combined points.

The Rockets and their opponents have combined for at least 200 points in 12 of 13 games this season.  Houston ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.2 points per 100 possessions.  It is averaging 109.1 points per game on the season and giving up 104.9.

The two meetings between the Pistons and Rockets last season were very high scoring.  They went over 198 points in a 116-105 home win for the Pistons for 221 combined points.  They also went over their 209.5-point total with ease in Houston with a 123-114 final and 237 combined points.

The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Monday games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Pistons last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bulls/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are way overvalued right now.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It's now time to fade them with the awful spot they are in here.

The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd road games in 4 days.  They have to be fatigued after losing 95-102 to the Clippers last night, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were out partying last night in Los Angeles.

The Lakers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, going 7-6 SU & 8-4 ATS. They are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here as home underdogs.  And this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they will be the much fresher team.

Los Angeles is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Lakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Los Angeles is 5-1-1 ATS in its last six games playing on 1 days' rest.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -5.5

The Creighton Bluejays returned four starters this season and added in G Marcus Foster, who sat out after transferring from Kansas State.  Foster is averaging 16.7 points and shooting 57.9% from 3-point range through thre games.  They are one of the top teams in the Big East, and that has already been proven in the early going.

The Blue Jays are 3-0 this season.  They only beat Missouri-KC 89-82, but that was a misleading final as they took the foot off the gas after leading 55-34 at half.  They came back and beat the favorite to win the Big Ten in Wisconsin 79-67 as 1.5-point dogs.  Then they beat Washington State 103-77 yesterday as 14.5-point favorites.

NC State went 16-17 last season and lost its two best players from that team in Anthony Barger (23.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) and Caleb Martin (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg).  The Wolfpack are off to a 3-0 start this season as well, but their wins have been much less impressive.  They only beat Georgia Southern 81-79 as 14-point home favorites, St. Francis-NY 86-61, and Montana 85-72 as 9-point favorites yesterday.

Creighton is 16-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Creighton is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.  Take Creighton Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Davidson -2.5

The Davidson Wildcats returned four starters from last year's team that went 20-13 and made the NCAA Tournament.  They are led by Jack Gibbs (23.5 ppg, 5.0 apg last year) and Paton Aldridge (15.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg), two of the top players in the Atlantic 10.

Davidson crushed Missouri 70-55 as 5.5-point favorites yesterday, which is the same Missouri team that took 11th-ranked Xavier to overtime the day before.  Arizona State has not been good at all the past two days in this tournament, and that's why we'll fade the Sun Devils here.

Indeed, ASU lost to Northern Iowa 63-82 despite being a 3.5-point favorite.  It then only beat Tulane 80-71 yesterday as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread.  That's the same Tulane team that lost by 20 to UNC and by 19 to Oklahoma.

Davidson is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Sun Devils are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Sun Devils are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up win.  Roll with Davidson Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode following four straight losses.  They likely would have beaten the Cowboys last week had they not gone for four two-point conversions and misses all four, instead kicking the extra points as that game would have played out much differently.

The Steelers aren't broken because they have actually outgained each of their last three opponents despite the losses.  Ben Roethlisberger finally looked healthy last week as he threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns without an interceptions against the Cowboys, clearly holding up his end of the bargain.  And I expect Roethlisberger and the Steelers to hang a big number against the Cleveland defense.

The Browns rank 31st in both scoring defense and total defense, giving up 30 points per game and 419 total yards per game.  And Cleveland doesn't have the firepower to keep up offensively.  The Browns rank just 28th in the NFL in total offense and have been held back by their quarterback play.

Hue Jackson decided to go with Cody Kessler over Josh McCown the last two weeks to see if he has a future with the team.  The answer is clearly a resounding 'NO', and it shows that the Browns don't care about winning as McCown would give them a much greater chance to do that.

They were held to 10 points and 222 total yards against the Cowboys in a 25-point loss two weeks ago, and just 7 points and 144 total yards against the Ravens last week.  Cleveland is just 2-8 against the spread this season, and 0-7 against the spread as a home underdog over the last two seasons, losing by an average of 15.0 points per game.  The books haven't been able to set their numbers high enough.

The Steelers crushed the Browns in both meetings last season, winning by 21 at home and 16 on the road.  They can't afford to overlook the Browns this week after four straight losses.  I think another double-digit victory can be expected here given the situation.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens +7.5

The Dallas Cowboys are 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost once against the spread this season.  The betting public is all over the Cowboys now and it's clear that they are way overvalued moving forward.  It's time to sell high on the Cowboys this week.

I like getting a full touchdown with the Ravens here.  Baltimore games have been extremely close over the past few seasons.  A ridiculous 23 of their last 26 games have been decided by eight points or less, so essentially just one score.  I also like the fact that they are getting extra time to prepare for this game after dominating the Browns by 21 last Thursday.  John Harbaugh is 15-3 straight up when given at least 10 days to prepare for a team.

The Ravens have a chance to pull off the upset in this game because of their defense.  They rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 282 yards per game.  They also rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 71 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  They should be able to slow down Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys' rushing attack.

I also question the Cowboys motivation this week.  They are coming off a huge road win against the Steelers in which they were lucky to win because the Steelers beat themselves by going for four two-point conversions and missing on all four.  Had they simply kicked the extra point on all four, that game would have played out much differently.

So, the Cowboys are in a letdown spot off that huge win, plus they have a big divisional game against the Redskins on deck Thursday on Thanksgiving.  I think they could be overlooking the Ravens just enough this week to not only fail to cover this 7.5-point spread, but likely lose this game outright.

Jason Garrett is 10-24 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 home games overall.  The Ravens are 14-4-3 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the NFL this season.  They have gone 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and they lead the NFL in turnover differential with an insane plus-14 margin.  If not for the good breaks in the turnover department, this would be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

That was clearly on display last week as the Chiefs came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Panthers 20-17 by outscoring them 17-0 in the final quarter.  The Panthers simply gave that game away as Cam Newton threw a pick-six, and Kelvin Benjamin fumbled in his own territory to set up the Chiefs' game-winning field goal.

The Chiefs rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 33.3 yards per game.  Only the Colts, Browns and 49ers rank worse.  They have been outgained in six of their last eight games overall.  They were even outgained by 218 yards by the Jaguars at home two weeks ago, yet somehow found a way to win 19-14 in another game they should have lost.

Coming off their fifth straight victory, the Chiefs are way overvalued now here as 7.5-point favorites.  That was a huge win at Carolina, and with a road game at Denver on deck next week, that makes this a sandwich game and a tough spot for the Chiefs.  I don't expect them to be laying it all on the line this week, and I certainly don't expect them to win by more than a touchdown, let alone win the game at all.

The Tampa Bay Bucs have new life now following their most dominant win of the season, a 36-10 home victory over the Chicago Bears in which their defense forced four turnovers and held the Bears to just 283 total yards.  Now the Bucs only trail the Falcons by two games in the division after Atlanta lost last week.

Doug Martin returned to the lineup last week, and he's one of the more underrated running backs in the league.  When he has been healthy, the Bucs have been tough to stop.  They put up 360 yards on the Bears last week, and James Winston had one of his best games.  he completed 23 of 33 passes for 312 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

The Chiefs have been abysmal on offense this season.  Alex Smith averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt against the Panthers last week and had only one completion of more than 20 yards.  He did not throw a touchdown pass, but did throw an interception.  Their lack of explosive plays makes them way too predictable because Smith hasn't been able to stretch the field, and that's not going to magically change this week.

Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games.  The Bucs are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 11.  Tampa Bay is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Chiefs are 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* Rhode Island/Duke CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +8

The Rhode Island Rams brought back four starters this season who all averaged at least 9.8 points per game.  And they get back EC Mathews from injury.  Matthews has All-American potential and averaged 16.9 points per game in 2014-15.

The Rams got off to a blistering start this season in beating Dartmouth 84-61 as 18-point favorites and Marist 107-65 as 23-point favorites.  But then they had their worst performance of the season against rival Brown, only winning 79-72 as 24-point favorites.  I was on Brown in that game and figured it would be close because it's a rivalry.

But then I got back on Rhode Island yesterday against Cincinnati because I thought they were undervalued off the non-cover against Brown.  And the Rams delivered with a 76-71 win over Cincinnati as 2-point underdogs.  Now they are 4-0 and out to prove that they are one of the top teams in the country against Duke today.

Duke is overvalued already due to being ranked as the No. 1 team in the country.  But this team is far from full strength as they are forced to play players big minutes due to injury.  They are without star freshmen Jayson Tatum, Henry Giles and Marques Bolden already.

Then, in their 78-68 win over Penn State yesterday as 19-point favorites, both Grayson Allen and Chase Jeter suffered injuries.  Allen is expected to play through his toe injury today, but Jeter is doubtful with his ankle injury.  Only six players are averaging more than 10 minutes per game this season, and Jeter is one of them, so his loss is big.  And if Allen is hampered at all that's a huge loss because he is their best player.

The Blue Devils are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Duke is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.  Bet Rhode Island Sunday.

15* USC/UCLA Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +13.5

The USC Trojans are coming off their biggest win of the season last week.  They beat then-No. 4 Washington 26-13 as 10-point road underdogs with ESPN's College Game Day on site.  Now they're primed for a huge letdown here as they take on UCLA the following week.

The Trojans have become way overvalued now due to going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Give them credit for turning things around, but the only impressive win was Washington as they played four home games and Arizona as their only other road game during this stretch.

UCLA is looking at this game likes its 'Super Bowl' this week.  Things haven't gone how the Bruins had hoped, but they certainly aren't as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate.  In fact, all six of their losses have come by 10 points or less, and that fact alone makes me love getting 13.5 points with them here.

The Bruins will be up for this game because they still have a chance to make a bowl if they can win their final two games.  And they play Cal next week, so that's very possible.  Plus, they would like to put a damper on their biggest rivals' season here by beating USC and ending their winning streak.  And the Trojans have only a very small chance of playing in the Pac-12 title game, so they don't have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way.

UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country, which gives it a chance to pull off the upset.  The UCLA pass defense is 6th in the country in efficiency.  It has only allowed eight touchdown passes all season with 13 interceptions while giving up only 5.5 yards per attempt.  The Bruins will be perhaps Sam Darnold's biggest test yet because of this pass defense.

Jim Mora is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against USC as the head coach at UCLA, with the three covers coming by an average of 18 points per game.  The home team is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings, and the Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to UCLA.

Plays against a road team (USC) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with UCLA Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a very tough spot here.  They are returning for their first home games followign a four-game road trip.  And they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.

After three straight road wins over Utah, the LA Clippers and Dallas, the Grizzlies are clearly primed for a letdown spot here.  The Timberwolves come on on a days' rest after throttling the 76ers 110-86 at home on Thursday.  This team is only going to continue to get better as the season goes on.

These teams have already played twice this season.  Minnesota blew a 20-plus point lead early in a 98-102 loss at Memphis, but bounced back with a 116-80 home win over the Grizzlies in the next meeting.  It's clear by those two results that the T'Wolves match up well with them, and this is certainly a favorable situation given the Grizzlies are running on fumes.

Plays against home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Timberwolves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Central Florida PK

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane lost their second controversial game last week.  They fell 31-38 at Houston earlier this season, and then they lost 40-42 at Navy last week.  Now the Golden Hurricane essentially have no chance of winning the AAC West division.  With that realization this week, I fully expect them to suffer a hangover effect from the Navy loss.

And the UCF Knights are one of the best stories this season.  They didn't win a single game last year, but now former Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost has them sitting at 6-4 and ready to go bowling.  And now this is Senior Day for a group of veterans that can take some huge responsibility for this turnaround.  They atmosphere will be great for the home team Saturday.

And UCF has really impressed me this year.  Its only blowout loss came at Michigan in the second game of the season.  The other three losses have come to Maryland (in OT), Temple (by 1) and Houston (by 7 on the road).  Temple and Houston are probably the two best teams in the AAC in my opinion, and they easily could have beaten them both.

But the Knights just keep getting better.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Tulane (37-6) and Cincinnati (24-3).  They have by far the superior defense in this matchup as they only allow 20.6 points per game, 360 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  Tulsa gives up 32.1 points per game, 435 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.

UCF actually played Tulsa tough last year despite going 0-12.  The Knights lost 30-45 on the road as 17-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 13 yards in that contest.  And they won 31-7 at home over Tulsa in 2014.  I think they get their revenge from last season's loss against a Tulsa team in a terrible frame of mind right now.

The Knights are 8-2 ATS in all games this season, 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings as well, so home-field advantage has been huge.  Take Central Florida Saturday.

25* College Football BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -4

Colorado has been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread as the lines have just failed to catch up with them.  Their only non-cover was a 10-point home win over UCLA as 13.5-point favorites a few weeks ago.  I love this team and I've backed them a few times this season without fading them once.

I love the situation in this game as well.  Colorado is in control of its own destiny to win the Pac-12 South.  If they win out against Washington State and Utah at home the next two games, the Buffaloes will be going to the conference championship game.

Conversely, Washington State essentially has nothing to play for this week.  The Cougars can lose this game and then beat Washington next week and win the Pac-12 North.  And I can't help but think they'll be looking ahead to that Apple Cup showdown given the situation.

Colorado's only two losses this season both came on the road at Michigan and at USC, but they played both teams tough and covered the spread in each.  The Buffaloes are 4-0 at home and winning by a whopping 31 points per game this season.

The staple of the Buffaloes has been their defense, which is one of the best in the country.  They are only giving up 18 points and 307 yards per game.  They're holding opponents to 10 points and 91 yards per game less than their season averages, and they have a tremendous pass rush.  They have forced a turnover in an FBS-best 23 consecutive games coming in.

The Buffaloes certainly have the recipe to slow down Luke Falk and Washington State's Air Raid passing attack.  They have one of the best secondary's in the land with a couple of NFL prospects.  They only give up 175 passing yards per game and 50% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They rank 4th in the country in pass efficiency defense.  And they get a break here because Cougars star receiver River Cracraft (53 receptions, 701 yards, 5 TDs) is now out for the season after suffering a knee injury last week.

There's a reason why Washington State is only No. 22 in the playoff rankings while Colorado is No. 10.  It's because the Cougars have faced such an easy schedule this season.  They haven't had to play Colorado, USC or Washington yet, which are the three best teams in the conference.  This will be by far the Cougars' toughest test of the season to date.  I really like the Buffaloes as only 4-point favorites here, especially given the motivational angles in terms of winning the Pac-12.

Washington State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more.  Colorado is 8-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.  Mike Leach is 3-12 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +23

Indiana's 31-45 loss to Penn State was very misleading last week.  The Hoosiers actually led by 3 with under four minutes to play, but then gave up 17 unanswered points in the final four minutes, including a sack-fumble that was returned for a touchdown on one of the final plays of the game.  But that misleading final has created some line value here with Indiana.

Many feel that Michigan is going to bounce back from its loss to Iowa in a big way, but Indiana is no pushover.  The Hoosiers have played the best teams in the Big Ten tough over the past two seasons.  I love the Hoosiers in the big underdog role.  I cashed them as 28.5-point underdogs in a 21-point loss at Ohio State, which was a closer game than the final score as well.  It was also by far the most that Indiana has lost any game this season.

Indiana still needs another win to get bowl eligible.  And the Hoosiers have not forgotten what happened to them against Michigan last year.  They gave up a touchdown with only 2 seconds left in regulation and wound up losing in double-overtime.  They want revenge here and would love to ruin Michigan's season.

Everyone expected John O'Korn to win the starting QB job for Michigan in the offseason.  So the fact that Wilton Speight won it says a lot about what Jim Harbaugh thinks of O'Korn.  It's a big downgrade for the Wolverines now that Speight is out for the season with a broken collarbone suffered in that 13-14 loss at Iowa.

I expect a very conservative game plan for the Wolverines' offense this week, which is going to make it even tougher for them to cover this big number.  That means the Wolverines are going to run the ball more and take the ball out of O'Korn's hands.  And Indiana has been tremendous against the run.  The Hoosiers give up 156 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against opponents that average 183 yards per game and 4.5 per carry, holding opponents to 27 yards per game and 0.8 per carry less than their season averages.

The Hoosiers are outgaining conference opponents by 37 yards per game this season.  Their offense averages 6.1 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play.  Their defense gives up 5.2 yards per play against offenses that average 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Hoosiers are much better than they are getting credit for here.

And with their 'game of the year' against Ohio State on deck, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wolverines looking ahead to that game at least a little this week.  Michigan is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Take Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +9.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are in a huge letdown spot this week after their 43-42 upset road victory over the No. 2 Clemson Tigers as 21-point underdogs.  Now they are 6-4 on the season and have their bowl game wrapped up, but they can't win the Coastal Title.  It's their biggest win in a decade since they upset West Virginia in 2007.

Duke is also coming off a huge upset win over rival North Carolina 28-27 as 11-point underdogs.  However, I don't expect a letdown from the Blue Devils because they sit at 4-6 and still need two more wins to get bowl eligible.  Plus, they beat UNC last Thursday, giving them a few extra days to get over that win and move on to Pittsburgh.

Duke is year in and year out one of the most underrated teams in college football because head coach David Cutcliffe absolutely gets the most out of his players.  And the Blue Devils have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, beating Army 13-6 as 5-point favorites, losing to Louisville by 10 as 35-point dogs, losing to Georgia Tech by 3 as 6.5-point dogs, losing to VA Tech by 3 as 13-point dogs, and then upsetting UNC as 11-point dogs.

The Blue Devils are 17-5 against the spread in their last 22 games as an underdog.  The Panthers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorites.  And one thing that's getting overlooked here is the loss of Pitt's best player on defense in safety Jordan Whitehead.  He led the team in tackles last year, and he leads them in tackles again this season, so his season-ending loss suffered against Clemson is a huge blow.

Pittsburgh definitely deserved to cover against Clemson last week, but that was a very misleading final score.  The Panthers were outgained by 166 yards by Clemson and gave up 630 total yards.  Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions in the end zone when the Tigers were going in to score.

I really like what I've seen from this Duke offense of late.  Quarterback Daniel Jones is getting better and better.  He has 267 rushing yards and 693 passing yards the last three weeks alone.  Jones opened the season with six touchdowns against eight interceptions, but he has a 6-to-1 ratio since and will be up against a Pitt defense that ranks 110th against the pass while allowing 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.

Pitt has just one win by more than 3 points this season over a Power 5 school.  The dog is 3-0 ATS in this series.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt this season.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/Rhode Island Top 25 No-Brainer on Rhode Island +2.5

The Rhode Island Rams brought back four starters this season who all averaged at least 9.8 points per game.  And they get back EC Mathews from injury.  Matthews has All-American potential and averaged 16.9 points per game in 2014-15.

The Rams got off to a blistering start this season in beating Dartmouth 84-61 as 18-point favorites and Marist 107-65 as 23-point favorites.  But then they had their worst performance of the season against rival Brown, only winning 79-72 as 24-point favorites.  I was on Brown in that game and figured it would be close because it's a rivalry, and I think that non-cover has the Rams undervalued going into this showdown with Cincinnati.

After the Brown game, coach Dan Hurley, clearly not pleased, left all of his players in the locker room instead of bringing two with him when he met the media. He called the defensive play of his guards "pathetic." "We shot damn near 60 percent from the field (57.7 percent) and we just got outhustled," said Hurley.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS in road games when playing only their second game in eight days over the past two seasons.  Bet Rhode Island Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana-Monroe +25.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers just had their dreams of winning the Sun Belt crushed last week with a heartbreaking 24-28 road loss to the Troy Trojans.  Now they can only play for a share of the title at best, and would need Arkansas State to lose to get that.

The Mountaineers aren't going to bring the kind of effort it's going to take to beat Louisiana Monroe by more than 25.5 points Saturday.  They'd be plenty content with just winning the game, and even that may be a struggle with the mental state they are in right now.

Louisiana-Monroe is a team that has been steadily improving as the season has gone on.  The Warhawks are coming off back-to-back big upset victories to prove that they have not quit.  They beat South Alabama 42-35 as 9.5-point road underdogs, and Georgia State 37-23 as 12.5-point road underdogs.

South Alabama actually beat San Diego State by 18 points at home earlier this season while also knocking off Mississippi State on the road, so that win over the Jaguars was impressive.  And Appalachian State beat Georgia State by 14 at home, while Monroe beat them by 14 on the road.

There's no question Appalachian State is the better team here, but being 25.5 points better is another story.  These teams have four common opponents this season.  Appalachian State is 4-0 against them winning by 20 points per game and outgaining them by 180 yards per game.  Monroe is 2-2 against them, outscoring them by 4 points per game and outgaining them by 50 yards per game.  By those common opponent Appalachian State has been 16 points better than Monroe, and that's about where I think this spread should be is in the 16-point range, not 25.5.

Appalachian State really doesn't have the firepower offensively to be laying this kind of weight.  It is only averaging 27.0 points, 391 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.  Monroe's offense has improved dramatically of late, averaging 39.5 points and 458.5 yards per game in its last two.

Appalachian State is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last three seasons.  Monroe is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Warhawks.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +10

The Iowa Hawkeyes won their 'Super Bowl' last week by upsetting Michigan 14-13 at home as 24-point underdogs.  I fully expect them to suffer a huge letdown this week off such a big win, and now they're being asked to go on the road and win a conference game by double-digits.

Iowa had previously lost 14-41 at Penn State on the road while getting outgained by 365 yards.  They were also outgained by 187 yards in a 9-17 home loss to Wisconsin the week before.  It seems like the oddsmakers are forgetting those performances with the line they have set just because Iowa beat Michigan.

But let's be honest, Michigan really gave that game away.  Quarterback Wilton Speight missed several open receivers running free deep for touchdowns.  And Speight broke his collarbone in the second half, but remained in the game.  What should have been a Michigan blowout turned into an upset because of it.

Iowa's offense is still extremely limited.  It completed only eight passes against Michigan for 66 yards.  And five of those passes were caught by running back Akrum Wadley, who was the hero for a day.  But the Hawkeyes have averages just 12.3 points, 233.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play in their last three games.  They don't have the offense to warrant being 10-point road favorites here.

Adding to the value here is that Illinois is coming off a blowout 3-48 loss at Wisconsin last week in which it committed four turnovers and the game got away from them.  But the Fighting Illini beat Michigan State 31-27 at home the week before.  And now this will be their final home game of the season, so the seniors are going to be highly motivated to win on Senior Day.

After playing three straight big-time opponents in Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan, and with rival Nebraska at home on deck, that makes this tough spot for the Hawkeyes.  They just clinched bowl eligibility with that win last week so they don't need this win because they can't win their division anyway.  This is clearly a sandwich game here for the Hawkeyes.

When you look at the numbers, this is actually a pretty evenly-matched game.  The Fighting Illini average 5.6 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.6 yards per play on defense.  Iowa averages 5.2 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.4 yards per play on defense.  So the Hawkeyes have been outgained on a yards-per-play basis, while the Fighting Illini have broke even.

And it's worth noting that star QB Wes Lunt has missed significant time this season due to injury.  But he's healthy now and will makes a huge difference for this team when he's in the lineup.  He has thrown six touchdowns against one interception, while backup Jeff George has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions while averaging only 5.0 yards per attempt.

Last year Illinois covered as 10.5-point road dogs at Iowa in a 20-29 loss.  Lunt threw for 317 yards and a touchdown in that game.  That's important because Iowa was a much better team last year than it is this season.  It went 12-0 in the regular season.  So we have basically the same 10-point spread here, but Illinois is at home this time around.

Iowa is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Illinois.  Roll with Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette +23

The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off their biggest win of the season in a huge rivalry game against Auburn.  They won 13-7 and shut down Auburn's offense, winning outright as 8.5-point underdogs.  But now off that huge win, and with another rival on deck in Georgia Tech, I expect Georgia to fall flat here.

The Bulldogs just don't have the offense to be laying this many points.  They only average 22.6 points per game, 379 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.  Georgia hasn't won a game by more than 14 points all season, and they only beat FSC foe Nicholls State by two points.

Louisiana-Lafayette has gotten it going over the past few weeks.  They have won two of their last three win a 27-3 victory at Texas State, and a 33-26 win at Georgia Southern.  They managed to hold Georgia Southern, a team known for its rushing attack, to just 52 yards on 28 carries last week.

That's key because the Rajin' Cajuns actually have one of the best run defenses in the country, and Georgia relies on its running game to move the football.  The Rajin' Cajuns rank 20th nationally against the run, giving up just 115 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

They are going to be able to get some stops in this contest, and they certainly want this game more than Georgia does.  I also like the fact that Lafayette has played its best football on the road this season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS while actually outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per game.

Plays on a road team (LA LAFAYETTE) - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Lafayette is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games off four consecutive games in which it committed one or fewer turnovers.  The Rajin' Cajuns are taking care of the football and are going to make the Bulldogs work for everything they get.  This game will be much closer than the books anticipate.  The Ragin' Cajuns are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Louisiana-Lafayette Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early Riser on UTSA +27.5

The Texas A&M Aggies are an absolute mess right now.  Since debuting at No. 4 in the playoff rankings, they have completely fallen apart by losing their last two games despite being favored.  They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, then blew a big lead in a 28-29 home loss to Ole Miss last week as 6.5-point favorites.

Now what to the Aggies have to play for?  They could care less about this game against UTSA this week because they know a win over them isn't going to make up for this blown opportunity.  They could also be looking ahead to the showdown with LSU next week.  Either way, I don't expect them to be interested enough to put away a game UTSA team by four or more touchdowns this week.

We are getting some extra line value here with UTSA because of its misleading 35-63 loss at Louisiana Tech last week.  The Roadrunners trailed by 14 late in that game, but the Bulldogs returned an onside kick for a touchdown, and then scored on a QB sneak in the final seconds when they could have just kneeled on it, covering the 23-point spread as a result.

But UTSA has shown me it can play with some very good teams.  It won 45-25 as 19.5-point road dogs at Middle Tennessee, beat Southern Miss 55-32 as 17-point home dogs, and only lost to Arizona State 28-32 as 21-point home dogs.

UTSA will put up some points in this game with an offense that has scored at least 31 points in four straight and five of its last six.  Quarterback Dalton Sturn has thrown for 1,748 yards with 16 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores.  Running backs Jalen Rhodes and Jarveon Williams have combined for 1,384 rushing yards and 16 scores as well.

The fans are feeling pretty down in College Station right now.  And I highly the atmosphere will be too great at Kyle Field for an 11 a.m. local kickoff.  UTSA will be looking to make its mark in the state and build its brand.  The Aggies are the more talented team, but the Roadrunners will give them a fight for four quarters.

Texas A&M is 0-10 ATS following two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seaosns.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Roadrunners.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* CFB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +28.5

Tony Sanchez is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country at UNLV.  The Runnin' Rebels are now 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility, so they will certainly show up tonight trying to pull off the upset.

The Rebels are coming off one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 69-66 (triple-OT) thriller over Wyoming.  They racked up 653 yards of total offense, which is the second-most in school history, and punished the Cowboys for 401 rushing yards.  That's the same Wyoming team that beat Boise State 30-28 earlier this season.

Junior quarterback Kurt Palandech made his first start of the season and excelled by accounting for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and three scores, and also rushing for 157 yards and a touchdown.

Boise State simply does not have the same home-field advantage it used to when Chris Peterson was running the show.  In fact, the Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games.  They haven't beaten anyone by more than 14 at home this year, and that's important because they have been favored by 13, 24, 28, 7 and 31 points in their five home games.

UNLV boasts an offense that is putting up 34.4 points per game and 253 rushing yards per game at 5.7 per carry.  It can stay competitive in this game with its running game by shortening the game and keeping the clock and the chains moving.

Boise State has certainly been susceptible to the run at times this season and is allowing 165 rushing yards per game.  The Broncos have given up at least 215 rushing yards in each of their last three games against Wyoming, San Jose State and Hawaii, and they allowed 382 to New Mexico earlier this season.

The Broncos are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Rebels are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take UNLV Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Dallas Mavericks are an absolute dumpster fire right now.  They are just 2-8 on the season and have rarely been competitive.  Their roster was already below-average prior to the season, but now with all the injuries they are dealing with, it's one of the worst in the NBA.

The Mavericks are now without their offensive spark plug in J.J. Barea, who suffered a strained calf last time out.  The Mavericks are already without Dirk Nowitzki (Achilles soreness) and Devin Harris (toe), and Deron Williams (strained calf) had to leave Wednesday's game before halftime after returning from a four-game absence.  Williams is doubtful to play tonight.  Those are four key players that they just can't afford to be without.

Conversely, the Memphis Grizzlies are starting to get healthy with the return of Chandler Parsons.  And they are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have pulled off huge upsets in their last two games, winning 102-96 in Utah as 6-point dogs, and 111-107 on the road over the Los Angeles Clippers as 12.5-point dogs.

The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Dallas is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games, losing by an average of 14.7 points per game.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks are way overvalued right now because they have won six straight to improve to 9-2 on the season and in a first-place tie with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  However, the Hawks have benefited from a home-heavy schedule, and an easy schedule at that.

The Charlotte Hornets are 7-3 on the season yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have played five games on the road and five at home.  The Hornets are outscoring opponents by 7.2 points per game at home this year.

The Hornets did lost three out of four meetings with the Hawks last season, but they lost the first two by a combined five points.  They beat the Hawks 107-84 as 3-point home dogs and lost 92-94 as 2-point home dogs in their two home meetings.

Atlanta will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and could be without both Dwight Howard and Thobo Sefolosha.  Charlotte had two days off before this game and will be playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Friday.

20* Michigan/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU -1

The SMU Mustangs went 25-5 last season and were clearly one of the better teams in the country.  Tim Jankovich, hired four years ago as an assistant as essentially the coach-in-waiting, is more than capable of replacing Larry Brown. He won 104 games in five seasons at Illinois State before arriving at SMU, and even went 9-0 last season while Brown sat out with a suspension.

Jankovich is working with a great team this season as the Mustangs return three starters in Ben Moore (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg last year), Shake Milton (10.5 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Sterling Brown (10.1 ppg, 53.6% 3-pointers).  These three have helped the Mustangs out to an impressive 3-0 start this season with a 72-44 win over Gardner Webb, a 91-64 win over Eastern Michigan as 12.5-point favorites, and a 76-67 win over Pitt as 5-point favorites.

Milton (13.0 ppg, 4.3 apg), Brown (10.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.3 apg) and Moore (9.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg) have all gotten off to nice starts this season.  But it's been Semi Ojeleye (22.7 ppg, 9.0 rpb) who has stolen the show.  He's a Duke transfer who is already contributing in a big way after sitting out last season.  Jarrey Foster (11.7 ppg) has taken his game to the next level after playing a significant role off the bench last year.

No question Michigan's 79-61 win over Marquette yesterday was impressive.  But everything went right for the Wolverines in the first half.  They weren't impressive in their first two games, a 76-58 home win over a Howard team that Marquette beat by 32.  And they only won by 12 over IUPUI as 17.5-point favorites.  I think they'll be overmatched here.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -1

I won with Marquette in their first two games in dominant performances.  The Golden Eagles won 95-71 as 2-point favorites over Vanderbilt on a neutral court, covering the spread by 22 points.  They also won 81-49 over Howard as 26-point favorites, covering the spread by 6 points.

That was the same Howard team that Michigan had only beaten by 18 in their season opener at home.  So the fact that Marquette lost to Michigan 79-61 last night was pretty much a complete fluke.  The Golden Eagles played terrible in the first half and trailed by 24 points.  But they cut the lead to 12 in the second half and played more up to their capability.

I look for the Golden Eagles to come out hungry tonight to make amends for that loss to Michigan.  They were maybe shell-shocked by playing in Madison Square Garden, which could have contributed to their first-half performance.  But they won't be tonight, and this is a team that won 20 games last year and is on the rise in the third season under Steve Wojciechowski.  They returned four starters this season, including three who averaged double-digits scoring last year.

I believe Pitt is going to struggle this season replacing head coach Jamie Dixon with Kevin Stallings, who consistently underachieved at Vanderbilt.  That has proven to be the case.  Pitt needed double-OT to beat Eastern Michigan 93-90 at home, which is the same EMU team that SMU beat by 27.  Pitt only beat Gardner Webb by 19 while SMU beat that same team by 28.  And then Pitt proceeded to lose to SMU 67-76 last night.

Marquette is 8-1 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  Pitt is 19-42-1 ATS in its last 62 games overall.  The Panthers are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Marquette Friday.

15* Bulls/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5

The Utah Jazz have gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Five of those six wins came by 11 points or more with five of them on the road.  In fact, they've played eight road games this season compared to just four at home, so their 7-5 record is impressive to this point.

I like the value we are getting with the Jazz as only 3.5-point favorites here.  The Chicago Bulls come in way overvalued due to three straight victories.  D-Wade won his return to Miami, then they beat the short-handed Wizards who were without John Wall and Bradley Beal.

The Bulls' 113-88 win at Portland on Tuesday was impressive, but it also had them overvalued here.  And the Jazz last played on Monday in a loss to the Grizzlies, so they will be motivated to bounce back, plus they've had two days to prepare for the Bulls.

The home team won both meetings between these teams last year.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Take the Jazz Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +8.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves simply own the Sun Belt Conference.  They aren't going to be eager to let the Troy Trojans take their reign tonight as both teams come in unbeaten in conference play with the winning likely to win the title.

Arkansas State has really picked up its play in conference action.  It is 5-0 while scoring 33.4 points per game and giving up just 16.2 points per contest.  The defense has gotten healthy as the season has gone on, and stud defensive ends Ja'Von Roland-Jones and Chris Odom have combined for 15 sacks.

Sophomore quarterback Justice Hansen has really jump-started the offense since taking over.  He went 20-of-27 passing for 257 yards and two touchdowns last week in a 41-22 win over New Mexico State.  The Red Wolves didn't have to put forth much of an effort to get by NMSU, which is key with this being a short week.

Troy laid it all on the line to beat Appalachian State last week.  The Trojans prevailed 28-24 thanks to a late touchdown that proved to be the difference.  I think the Trojans could suffer a bit of a letdown here only five days later on this short week.  That game took a lot out of the Trojans.

Arkansas State has won each of the last three meetings in this series.  The Red Wolves haven't lost by more than a touchdown to Troy in any of the last five meetings.  Arkansas State has outgained six of its last seven opponents.  The Red Wolves are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games, including 11-2 ATS over the past two seasons..  Arkansas State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  Bet Arkansas State Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette -1

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

I've been on Marquette in each of its first two games this season, both blowout wins.  They beat Vanderbilt 95-71 on the road as 2-point favorites and Howard 81-49 at home as 26-point favorites.  That 32-point win against Howard is significant because it gives these teams a common opponent.  Michigan only beat Howard by 18 at home, and it followed that up with a lackluster 12-point win over IUPUI as 17.5-point favorites.

Marquette is 8-0 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in November road games over the last three years.  Marquette is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Marquette Thursday.

20* Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina -3

The first point I’m going to make is that the Panthers are basically the same favorites as they were in the first meeting on the road earlier this season. They were 2.5-point road favorites over the Saints. Now they’re 3-point home favorites. That fact alone shows you that there’s some line value here with the Panthers even though they lost the first meeting 38-41 on a last-second field goal.

I still consider the Panthers a Top 5 team in the NFL despite their 3-6 record. They have simply come up short in close games while uncharacteristically losing the turnover battle up to this point. The Panthers were +20 in turnovers last year, but they are -7 this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL. That bad luck isn’t likely to continue.

And turnovers certainly cost the Panthers last week against the Chiefs. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but somehow managed to give up 20 unanswered points. It wasn’t the defense’s fault as Cam Newton threw a pick-six, while Kelvin Benjamin fumbled deep in his own territory with only a few seconds remaining to set up the Chiefs’ game-winning field goal.

This Carolina defense is starting to play like it did last season ever since its bye in Week 7. The Panthers have given up an average of just 16.7 points and 311.7 yards per game in their last three contests. And again, 10 of those points against the Chiefs were basically given up by the offense. I expect Newton and company to be much more careful with the ball this week.

The Saints trailed most the way against the Broncos last week. I think they’re getting way too much respect from the books now after winning four of their last five games overall. One of those was the 3-point win over Carolina, which will only have the Panthers motivated for revenge at home this time around. After all, the Panthers had won the previous three meetings with the Saints by an average of 13.0 points per game.

While the Panthers’ defense is improving, the Saints still have an awful stop unit. They give up 29.2 points per game, 401 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. The Saints do have a great offense and one that gave the Panthers trouble in the first meeting, but again, the Panthers are playing better on that side of the ball now and will make the necessary adjustments as they try and save their season this week.

Carolina is 35-11 ATS in its last 46 games revenging a loss where its opponent scored 28 points or more. The Panthers are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game. Plays on favorites (CAROLINA) – revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Panthers Thursday.

15* Pitt/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU -4

I love the handicap on this game because it's pretty simple.  These teams have two common opponents already through their first two games, and it's easy to see which team is superior when comparing the results.

Pitt needed double-OT to beat Eastern Michigan 93-90 at home and only beat Gardner Webb 99-80 at home.  SMU beat Eastern Michigan 91-64 at home and Gardner Webb 72-44 at home.

So, SMU outscored those two teams by an average of 27.5 points per game, while Pitt only outscored them by an average of 11.0 points per game.  I think we are getting a real discount here with SMU being only 4-point favorites over Pitt on a neutral court tonight when comparing common opponents.

Pitt is 3-14 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 13-39-3 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win.  Roll with SMU Thursday.

15* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +12

The Los Angeles Clippers are getting so much respect from oddsmakers right now due to their 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS records.  It's time to sell high on them here as they are being asked to lay a whopping 12 points at home to the Memphis Grizzlies now.

The Grizzlies are getting healthy as Chandler Parsons is starting to shake the rust off.  They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 102-96 win in Utah Monday night as 6-point underdogs.  Even veteran Vince Carter is playing well, averaging 19 points on 60 percent shooting in his past three games.

Memphis is going to want revenge from an 88-99 home loss to Los Angeles on November 4th just under two weeks ago in their first meeting this season.  The Grizzlies have played the Clippers very tough in the past few seasons, going 4-5 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  I look for them to keep this game close throughout tonight.

Los Angeles is 0-9 ATS after a game committing 10-plus less turnovers than its opponents over the past three seasons.  The Clippers are extremely overvalued now off their 127-95 win over the lowly Brooklyn Nets at home last time out.  Memphis will give them a fight.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NIU/Eastern Michigan MAC ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Michigan +3

The Eastern Michigan Eagles should be going to a bowl game for the first time since 1987 after beating Ball State 48-41 last week to get their sixth win.  Now they'll be going for their first winning season since 1995.  They have had only one winning season since 1990, so they still have a lot to play for here.

Northern Illinois is playing for nothing but pride now.  A 24-31 loss to Toledo last week dropped NIU to 3-7 on the season and assured of a losing year.  That's rare territory for the Huskies, who had made six straight trips to Detroit to play in the MAC Championship Game prior to this season.

The Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Ryan Graham.  He has made seven career starts but struggles with accuracy.  Graham completed just 53.9 percent of his passes when forced into duty in 2015, and he is completing only 55.6 percent in 2016.  He is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt this season, while Drew Hare (7.2) and Anthony Maddie (6.9) were much better before him in that department.  He's also not the same runner as Maddie (6.8 yards/carry) as he averages just 4.7 per carry.
 
NIU relies heavily on its rushing attack that averages 234 yards per game and 5.5 per carry.  Well, Eastern Michigan hasn't allowed more than 230 rushing yards in any game this season.  They only give up 152 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 181 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.

Eastern Michigan boasts a prolific passing attack that averages 301 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.  Northern Illinois gives up 262 passing yards per game and 193 rushing yards per game for an average of 455 per contest.  Brogan Roback, who has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interceptions this season while taking over for the ineffective Todd Porter, is primed for a big day through the air.  He had a 468-yard effort in last week's win over Ball State.

Eastern Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and continues to be undervalued as a home underdog here.  Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  Take Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +7

The Atlanta Hawks are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back following their 93-90 win at Miami last night.  And now they could be without C Dwight Howard, who suffered a quad injury against Miami and is questionable to play tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks have had a whopping three days' rest to get ready for the Hawks.  They last played on November 12 in a 106-96 home victory over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Bucks have been playing much better of late after a slow start, winning four of their last six games overall.

The Bucks won two of three meetings with the Hawks last season despite being underdogs in all three.  They won 108-101 as 4.5-point home dogs and 117-109 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They like the matchup, and the rest situation certainly favors them here as they should not be catching 7 points.

Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the past three seasons.  The Bucks are 12-2 ATS off a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds over the last three years.  Atlanta is 49-72 ATS in its last 121 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Pacers Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Indiana +5

The Indiana Pacers are 5-1 at home this season and will be highly motivated for tonight's game against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers.  In recent years, Bankers Life Fieldhouse has been a tough place for LeBron James' teams to play. The Cavaliers beat the Pacers in Indianapolis in February last season. James's teams hadn't won a regular-season game in Indiana since February 2012 before that.

"Bankers Life Fieldhouse is always tough," James said. "It's been tough my whole career."

"It's a big game," Pacers coach Nate McMillan said. "The world champs are coming in here. It's kind of a game where you measure yourself."

The Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after winning 121-117 at home against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night.  J.R. Smith didn't play last night and is questionable to return.  If he can't play, the Cavaliers will certainly miss his outside shooting and ability to stretch the floor.

Indiana went 1-3 against Cleveland last season, but all three losses came by 5 points or less.  The Pacers actually outscored the Cavs by one point in those four meetings because their lone win came by 14 points, while their three losses came by a combined 13 points.

The Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Cleveland is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Indiana is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brown +24.5

The Browns Bears and Rhode Island Rams are longtime local rivals.  This is a series that started during the 1909-1910 season with the Rams leading it 104-53 all-time.  The underdog Bears are simply going to want this one more, and they should keep it competitive.

Rhode Island is nationally ranked and overvalued now off two straight wins and covers over Dartmouth and Marist to open the season.  And I think the Rams will be looking ahead to their game against No. 24 Cincinnati and then quite possibly No. 1 Duke over the weekend at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut.

Brown did lose by 29 at Cincinnati in the opener, but came back with an impressive 88-79 home win over Niagara.  Steven Spieth had 27 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists to just barely miss out on a triple-double.  Spieth (10.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.7 apg last year) is one of four returning starters for Brown.  The other three are Travon Blackmon (13.3 ppg, 5.5 apg), JR Hobbie (9.0 ppg, 41.9% 3-pointers) and Obi Okolie (10.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Last year Rhode Island needed overtime to beat Brown 88-85 as 6.5-point road favorites.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 20 points or less and by an average of 10.6 points per game.  Only once in the 18 meetings has Rhode Island beating Brown by more than 24.5 points, which was a 25-point win in 2010.  That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Bears tonight.  Bet Brown Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be underdogs at home to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a team that is only going to continue to improve with each game.  The Timberwolves have had some tough losses during their 3-6 start in which they've blown big leads.

However, Minnesota is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season in a 125-99 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.2 points per game in their four home games this season.

The Charlotte Hornets are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off back-to-back losses against the top two contenders in the East in the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from those defeats and to not be able to emotionally get up to face the Timberwolves tonight.

Charlotte is 18-40 ATS in its last 58 road games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  The Timberwolves are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Cavs UNDER 208

The Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers are extremely familiar with one another.  That's because they played in the Eastern Conference Finals last year that wound up going six games.  And they've already played once this season.  That familiarity makes points very hard to come by.

That has been evident in these meetings.  The Cavs and Raptors have combined for 204 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged a combined 194.8 points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 208.  They combined for 185 points in a 94-91 Cleveland win in their first meeting this season.

Toronto is 10-1 UNDER in road games after covering four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 35-16 in Cavs last 51 vs NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Ohio/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan PK

The Ohio Bobcats can afford to lose this game against Central Michigan and still win the MAC East with a home win over lowly Akron next week.  That's why I don't expect them to be fully focused on this contest tonight.

Central Michigan needs a win to get bowl eligible as it sits at just 5-5 on the season.  And there's no doubt the Chippewas will be hungry for a win for that reason, and to also put an end to a three-game losing streak.

This is the same Central Michigan team that beat Oklahoma State earlier this season.  But the Chippewas have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, so they are way undervalued right now.  They haven't played as well since that win over Oklahoma State, but the potential is clearly there, and I look for them to circle the wagons this week.

Central Michigan has played a much harder schedule than Ohio this season.  That makes its numbers more impressive, and by the numbers alone, it's clear that the Chippewas are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 44 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.  Ohio is outgaining teams by 39 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

The Bobcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Chippewas are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.  The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Michigan State +8.5

I like the value we are getting here with the Michigan State Spartans.  They blew a 17-2 lead against Arizona and lost 65-63 on a buzzer-beater in their opener.  I think they are being undervalued because of that loss.

Kentucky is 2-0 with home wins over Stephen F. Austin (87-64) and Canisius (93-69).  But this team is very young and inexperienced as they start three freshmen.  I don't think they are ready to handle this big stage in Madison Square Garden tonight.

I also like the fact that Michigan State has had much more time to prepare and correct its mistakes.  It has had three days off since the loss to Arizona.  Kentucky has only had one day to prepare for Michigan State after beating Canisius on Sunday.

Michigan State is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games off a close loss by 3 points or less, and 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 0-7 ATS off a game where it was called for 27 or more fouls over the last three years.  The Wildcats are 12-30 ATS in their last 42 off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.  Take Michigan State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -7

The Ball State Cardinals will be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They went 21-14 last season and improved from two wins in conference play to 10 in James Whitford's third season on the job.  Whitford is a former Arizona assistant and one of the most underrated coaches in the game.

Ball State's success last year was largely due to bombing from all angles as they canned 305 3-pointers while ranking 29th nationally in 3s and hitting them at a 37.2 percent clip.  Back for more are the four primary gunners in Francis Kiapway (74 3-pointers), Ryan Weber (70 3-pointers), Jeremie Tyler (59 3-pointers) and Sean Sellers.  They surround second-team All-MAC forward Franko House (12.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg), who would normally warrant a double-team.

We saw what Ball State was capable of with its 85-64 win at Saint Louis as 3.5-point favorites, easily covering the spread by 17.5 points.  The Cardinals hit 13 of 23 from 3-point range at a 56.5 percent clip.  House has 23 points and 6 rebounds, but two newcomers in Taylor Persons (21 points) and Tahjal Teague (10 points, 8 rebounds) performed well to show that the Cardinals have an absurd amount of depth.

Indiana State went 15-17 last season and lost two of its best players in Devonte Brown (15.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Khristian Smith (10.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg).  The Sycamores return just one player who scored more than 7.8 points per game last season.  They lost 78-80 at Northern Illinois in OT in their opener while shooting just 34.7% from the floor.

Indiana State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Sycamores are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games.  Bet Ball State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Siena +1.5

I fully expect the Siena Saints to run away with the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference title this season.  That's because they return all five starters from last year, including MAAC Defensive Player of the Year Javion Ogunyemi (14.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 71 blocks) from a team that went 21-13 last season.

Also back are three double-digit scorers in Brett Bisping (15.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg), Marquis Wright (14.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Lavon Long (10.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Kenny Wormley (4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg) is another returning starters, and Nico Clareth (13.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) is a huge weapon off the bench as he canned 55 3-pointers last season.

I think the fact that Siena didn't cover as 14.5-point favorites in an 89-78 home win over Cornell in their opener has them a bit undervalued here.  But they led that game 48-34 at halftime before getting outscored after intermission.  Wright (31 points), Bisping (23 points, 15 boards), Clareth (14 points) and Ogunyemi (13 points) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Saints.

George Washington is coming off a 28-10 season while winning the NIT title.  But the losses are big for the Colonials as they part ways with three starters in Patricio Garino (14.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Kevin Larsen (12.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg) and Joe McDonald (8.8 ppg, 3.1 apg).  The Colonials really struggled in their opener, only beating Maryland-East Shore 75-71 at home while committing 20 turnovers.

Siena is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick 'em.  Plays against any team (GEORGE WASHINGTON) - first five games of the season, after closing out last season strong with five or more straight wins are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Siena Tuesday.

15* Maryland/Georgetown FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Georgetown -5.5

The Georgetown Hoyas will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They return four starters in L.J. Peak (12.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Isaac Copeland (11.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Marcus Derrickson (7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and Bradley Hayes (8.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg).  The Hoyas opened their season with a 105-60 trouncing of USC Upstate.

Maryland will take a big step back this season after winning 27 games last year.  It only brings back one starter in Melo Trimble, and it loses four starters who were all double-digit scorers last year in Diamond Stone (12.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Jake Layman (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Rasheed Sulaimon (11.3 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Robert Carter Jr. (12.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg).

The Terrapins were awful in their opener as they only beat American 62-56 despiting being 21-point home favorites. They shot just 38.5% from the floor, and Trimble is simply being asked to do too much now.  They also committed 18 turnovers while only forcing 12.  Georgetown forced 26 turnovers in its opener.

The Hoyas are 39-22 ATS in their last 61 games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.  Georgetown is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Big Ten foes.  Maryland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  A loaded Maryland team only beat Georgetown 75-71 as 9-point home favorites last year.  It's revenge time for the Hoyas at home this time around as these teams absolutely hate each other.  Roll with Georgetown Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 190

The Grizzlies and Jazz have consistently played in low-scoring games in recent meetings.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA because they are two of the few that are dominated by their big men inside.  It's Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for Memphis, and Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors for Utah.

The Grizzlies and Jazz have combined for 190 or fewer points in nine consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 182, 179, 168, 177, 175, 190, 188, 178 and 182 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Grizzlies last six games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -24.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

Marquette made a statement with a 95-71 win over Vanderbilt on a neutral court as 1.5-point favorites in the opener.  JaJuan Johnson had 21 points and six steals, Luke Fischer had 18 points and 7 rebounds, and Haanif Cheatham had 15 points and 6 boards to lead the way for the Golden Eagles, who shot 52.7% from the floor and held the Commodores to 39.7% shooting.
 
Howard lost 58-76 at Michigan in its opener.  The Bison were expected to have all 5 starters back this season, but they were dealt a big blow with an injury to their best player.  James Daniel might be the best player that you have never heard of.  He averaged 27.1 points per game last season to lead the nation in scoring.  He took an astonishing 37.1 percent of the team's shots, so his loss is absolutely massive for this team.

Howard is 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bison are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 lined games overall.  Take Marquette Monday.

20* Bengals/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati PK

The Cincinnati Bengals are the healthiest they've been this season.  They are coming off their bye week after a tie with the Washington Redskins in London.  I really like the spot for them because of it.

The Bengals offense should be much stronger the rest of the way now that Andy Dalton has his favorite red zone target back in Tyler Eiffert.  He had nine receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Redskins.  Now Dalton has two proven targets outside with A.J. Green, who had nine catches for 121 yards against Washington.

The New York Giants aren't nearly as healthy.  They will be without No. 2 receiver Victor Cruz due to an ankle injury, and they will also be without G Justin Pugh.  I know the Giants have won three straight coming in, but they easily could have lost all three.  They are 5-3 on the season, but all five wins came by a touchdown or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.

The Giants have been outgained in four of their last five games.  They were outgained by 141 yards against the Eagles last week and should have lost.  They were also outgained by 113 yards against the Rams in London, and by 185 yards against the Packers.

The Giants actually rank just 28th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 31.4 yards per game.  They have no running game as their offense averages just 68 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.  I think that lack of balance is really going to hurt the Giants going forward.

The Bengals have great balance as they are averaging 120 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry, as well as 275 passing yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.  That's impressive when you consider they have been without Eiffert for most of the season.  The Bengals are better than their 3-4-1 record as they rank 10th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 16.9 yards per game.

The Bengals are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their previous game.  Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS off a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the past two seasons.  The Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Plays against teams (NY GIANTS) - terrible rushing team - averaging 70 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 23-7 (76.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +16.5

After back-to-back blowout victories over the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets, the Golden State Warriors are way overvalued now as 16.5-point home favorites over the Phoenix Suns.  I'll gladly fade them as I fully expect this game to go down to the wire.

The Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, but they had two days off before playing the Nets yesterday.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they can handle these situations much better than the average team.  And of course they are going to get up to face the Warriors tonight.

The Suns want revenge from a 100-106 home loss to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs on October 30th in their first meeting this season.  That was yet another close loss for the Suns recently in this series.  Each of the last three meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer as the Suns have gone 3-0 ATS while being double-digit dogs each time.

Phoenix is 9-1 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 40-16-2 ATS in its last 58 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be highly-motivated for a victory at home Sunday.  They sit at just 4-4 on the season after losing three straight games coming in.  But they clearly haven't been at full health during this skid, which is the biggest reason for it.

Ben Roethlisberger suffered a knee injury in a 15-30 loss at Miami, but tried playing through it.  He sat out the following week against New England, and it's no surprise the Steelers lost 16-27 at home.  Then they had their bye week, and Roethlisberger came back earlier than expected last week.  He was rusty and the Steelers lost 14-21 at Baltimore.

But now Roethlisberger is healthier this week, and he has told the team to follow his lead as they host the NFC-leading Dallas Cowboys.  The Steelers will be putting all of their eggs into one basket this week to get a win and stop this streak, and I look for them to do it as only 2.5-point favorites over the Cowboys.

The Steelers are 3-1 at home this season with their only loss to New England without Roethlisberger.  Their other three home games resulted in blowout wins over Cincinnati (24-16), Kansas City (43-14) and the New York Jets (31-13).  So they outscored those three teams by an average of 18.3 points per game. 

With Roethlisberger back healthy now, I expect the home dominance to continue.  After all, the Steelers have won seven straight home games in which Roethlisberger has started, and he is 67-21 in his career at Heinz Field.  He has thrown 19 touchdown passes in his past five home games as well.

Dallas could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It is 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS, currently the only team in the NFL without a loss against the spread.  The Cowboys were already a public team before this season, and the betting public has been really pouring it in on them this season now that they have delivered basically every week for backers.

And I believe that is being reflected in this line as the Cowboys are getting way too much respect from the books now.  They are only 2.5-point underdogs here when this line should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.  There's no question that a healthy Steelers' team is better than the Cowboys on a neutral field, but this line indicates they would be basically a pick 'em or underdogs on a neutral field.

Dallas has benefited from playing the NFL's easiest schedule up to this point this season.  It has played non-divisional games against the 49ers, Bears and Browns, who are a combined 3-23 on the season.  The Cowboys have only played two teams that currently have winning records.  They beat the 4-3-1 Redskins, but lost to the 5-3 Giants.  The Steelers have played the NFL's 5th-toughest schedule.

The Cowboys have been able to mask a below-average defense this season by controlling the time of possession 34-26 on average.  That defense will get exposed this week against arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy in the Steelers.

The Cowboys give up an average of 5.5 yards per play, which ranks 16th in the NFL.  They have two key injuries in the secondary with S Barry Church and CB Morris Claiborne expected to miss this game.  Roethlisberger should have a field day throwing the ball against this depleted Dallas secondary.  The Cowboys allow 68% completions to opposing quarterbacks on the season.

Pittsburgh is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by an average of 10.5 points per game in this spot.  Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS off three or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are winning by 9.7 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +13.5

Eastern Michigan is certainly a 'bet on' team for me this season.  The Eagles are one of the best teams in the MAC because of all that they have returning.  They have five of their top six players back from a team that went 18-15 last year.  They will deliver their fourth consecutive winning season this year and likely compete for a MAC title.

Sophomore center James Thompson IV (14.8 ppg, 10.6 rpg) proved why he signed with an SEC school as a senior in High School.  He and LSU's Ben Simmons, the No. 1 player in the draft, were they only freshmen in the country to average a double-double last year.  He is surrounded by shooters in seniors Willie Mangum IV and Raven Lee, who combined for 113 3-pointers last year.  Binghamton transfer Nick Madray is a solid stretch 4, and Tim Bond is a glue guy who made the MAC's All-Defensive team.

The Eagles already showed what they were capable of with a 90-93 (2 OT) loss at Pittsburgh as 11.5-point underdogs in their opener Friday night.  Now they are catching a big number against an SMU team that I don't believe to be as good as Pitt.

The Mustangs lose three of their best players from last year in Nic Moore (16.1 ppg, 5.2 apg), Jordan Tolbert (11.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Markus Kennedy (9.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg).  Head coach Larry Brown abruptly retired amid contract negotiations in July, and probably due to all the turmoil surrounding the postseason ban last year.  That leaves assistant Tim Jankovich to take over the duties.  SMU is 23-43 ATS in its last 66 home games off a home win.  Take Eastern Michigan Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3

I believe the Carolina Panthers are still one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL.  However, they aren't getting treated like it right now from oddsmakers because they are just 3-5 on the season.  That record has them undervalued right now.

Cam Newton missed 1.5 games and Jonathan Stewart also missed a couple games during their 1-5 start.  But then the Panthers had a bye in Week 7 to get healthy.  They have come back from their by with two impressive wins to turn their season around.

They beat the Cardinals 30-20 in Week 8 at home, and then they went on the road and beat the Rams 13-10 last week.  That was a Rams team coming off their bye, so that was a very good win.  Plus, the Rams scored their only TD of the game in the final few seconds of the fourth quarter on fourth down when the game was already decided.  The defense is really starting to play up to its standards now after holding the Cardinals and Rams to an average of 15.0 points per game the past two weeks.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall dating back to last season.  They have won four straight games coming in, but I believe they are being way overvalued due to that winning streak.  They were extremely lucky to beat the Jaguars 19-14 at home last week.

The Chiefs were actually outgained by 208 yards by the Jaguars.  Their offense was held to just 231 total yards, while the defense gave up 449 total yards.  In fact, the Chiefs have been outgained in five of their last seven games overall.  They are ranked 26th in the NFL in yardage differential this season, which isn't the sign of a good team.

I know the Chiefs will get Alex Smith back at quarterback this week, and while he's an upgrade of Nick Foles, it's not that big of a difference.  The Chiefs are expected to be without top receiver Jeremy Maclin, and it's uncertain if Spencer Ware will be back from his concussion.  The Chiefs were already without Jamaal Charles.

I just don't see the Chiefs being able to do enough offensively to keep up with the Panthers in this game.  Having a healthy Newton back and pairing him with a healthy Stewart, this Panthers offense will be at least as explosive as it was last year going forward when it led the NFL in scoring offense.

The Chiefs have been very lucky in the turnover department of late, which has been the key to their 4-game winning streak.  They are +10 in turnovers their past four games, which is a rate that is unsustainable.  The Panthers are -6 in turnover differential after finishing +20 last season.

The Panthers have won the turnover battle the past two games since they returned from their bye as they have only committed one turnover.  That will be a sign of things to come for the Panthers as they get back to playing how they did last year.  Kansas City's only chance in this game is to win the turnover battle because it's clear to me that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.  I'll bank on that not happening this week as the Panthers continue their push to get back in the playoff hunt.

Both teams rely heavily on running the football, and it's clear that the Panthers have a huge edge in this game against the run.  The Panthers rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 77.5 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  Conversely, the Chiefs rank 27th against the run, giving up 124.5 rushing yards per game and a whopping 4.8 yards per carry.

Plays on home favorites (CAROLINA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 47-20 (70.1%) ATS since 1983.

Carolina is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who complete 61% or better of their pass attempts over the last two seasons.  It is winning these games by 21.0 points per game on average.  Ron Rivera is 10-1 ATS in home games versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of Carolina.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington Redskins -1

The Washington Redskins went into their bye week pissed off.  They should have won their final two games heading into the bye, but instead they wound up going 0-1-1 to sit at 4-3-1 on the season.  Look for them to come out after their bye this week hungry for a victory.

I say they should have won their last two games because they blew a late lead against the Lions in a 20-17 road loss, outgaining Detroit by 69 yards.  Then they outgained Cincinnati by 131 yards in a 27-27 tie over in London.

The Redskins actually rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 40.5 yards per game on the season.  To compare, the Minnesota Vikings rank 18th in the NFL in yardage differential, actually getting outgained on the season due to a putrid offense that is only averaging 298.8 yards per game.

The Vikings got off to a 5-0 start this season, but then had their bye week.  They have gone 0-3 since the bye with three straight lackluster performances.  They lost 10-21 to the Eagles, 10-20 to the Bears and 16-22 to the Lions.  Their offense has been held to just 12.0 points per game during this skid.

The Redskins have one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL.  They are putting up 410.7 yards per game this season while averaging 299 passing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  The Vikings are only averaging 19.4 points per game on the season and 73 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry, putting way too much pressure on Sam Bradford and the passing game.

Plays on home teams (WASHINGTON) - off one or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vikings are still getting treated like one of the best teams in the NFL from oddsmakers when they clearly aren't in their current state.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are much better than their 2-5 record would indicate.  They blew big leads in three of their five losses, and small leads in the other two.  They just weren't able to finish games up to this point.  Now I think we are getting them at a discount here as 5-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Timberwolves have a huge edge in rest.  They come in on two days' rest, while the Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  That's one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially after a huge 110-108 win at Oklahoma City last night.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank here.

Plays on underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers just had their dreams crushed with a 10-0 loss to Alabama last week.  This game was tied 0-0 at the end of three quarters with the Tigers right there to pull off the upset.  But they had their hearts ripped out time and time again as Alabama QB Jalen Hurts killed them with his legs in the fourth quarter.

If the Tigers had won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the SEC West by winning out with an outside shot of making the four-team playoff.  But now with three losses on the season, they don't have much to play for outside of bowl positioning the rest of the way.  This team plays for championships, not bowl positioning.

So, I fully expect LSU to come out flat this week against Arkansas.  In fact, they may not even show up at all and get blown out of the building as a result.  There's no way LSU should be favored by a touchdown at Arkansas given their mental state right now, and I don't believe they should even be favored at all.

Arkansas had a chance to regroup with a bye two weeks ago following a brutal stretch that included a blowout loss to Auburn heading into the bye.  But the Razorbacks got healthy and re-focused, and they came back last week and crushed Florida 31-10 despite being 3-point home underdogs.

This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Razorbacks racked up 466 yards of total offense on a very good Florida defense, rushing for 223 and throwing for 246.  Their defense held the Gators to just 241 total yards, outgaining them by 225 yards in for the game.

I was really impressed with Arkansas' ability to stop the run against the Gators.  They gave up just 12 rushing yards on 14 carries.  They had previously been torched on the ground, but they clearly made an effort on their bye to improve in that area, and that's exactly what they did.  That will be key again this week in stopping LSU's rushing attack led by Leonard Fournette.

Amazingly, LSU has only played one true road game all season.  It lost 13-18 at Auburn in that contest.  It also lost its other road game which was at a neutral site against Wisconsin 14-16.  I think this team is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers this week because the schedule has been favorable with so many home games up to this point.

Arkansas is 5-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to top-ranked Alabama.  But that game was closer than the final of 30-49 would indicate.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards.

To compare, Alabama outgained LSU by 198 yards last week and held the Tigers to just 125 total yards.  Arkansas scored 30 points on that Alabama defense and gained 473 yards, but gave the game away by committing five turnovers.  The Razorbacks have a clear advantage on offense in this game and will be able to score on this LSU defense, too.

Arkansas has had LSU's number in recent years.  The Razorbacks won 17-0 at home in 2014 and 31-14 on the road as 6.5-point dogs last year.  They outgained the Tigers by 131 yards in 2014 and by 110 yards in 2015.  The Razorbacks are actually 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Tigers.  They have only lost by more than 7 points once in the last 11 meetings.

LSU is 0-6 ATS in Saturday road games over the past two seasons, losing by an average of 5.0 points per game.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland State +1

Ruined by transfer rules allowing graduates to transfer elsewhere and play immediately, Cleveland State lost two starters last year and a third who vacated the year before, leaving head coach Gary Waters in a reclamation project and a drop in the standings to just 9-23 overall.  It was a rare down season for Waters, who is 185-150 at CSU.

But now the Vikings return three starters and will be vastly improved.  They do have to add in six newcomers, but three of them have junior college experience, and four of them are 6-7 or 6-8.  Sophomore G Rob Edwards (12.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and senior F Demonte Flannigan (11.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) return as the two leading scorers from last year.  Another starter in G Terrell Hales is back, plus four key reserves who played significant minutes return.

Kent State loses three starters from a team that went 19-13 last season.  It also brings back one reserve that played significant minutes last season.  I fully expect the Golden Flashes to take a big step back this season with basically only three players back who contributed last season.

Rob Senderoff is 1-8 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Kent State.  Senderoff is 0-6 ATS as a neutral court favorite as the coach of the Golden Flashes.  This game will be played in Youngstown, Ohio in the Coaches vs Cancer tournament.  Bet Cleveland State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -2.5

The Old Dominion Monarchs have been flying under the radar this season.  They sit at 6-3 overall and 4-1 in conference play, and a win Saturday over Southern Miss would move them into a first-place tie with Western Kentucky in the C-USA's East Division.  So, they have a lot to play for this week.

Old Dominion's three losses this season have all come on the road against the best three teams they have faced in Appalachian State, NC State and Western Kentucky.  But the Monarchs have taken care of business in their other six games against similar or worse competition to Southern Miss.

They have outgained their other six opponents in their six victories, and they outgained five of them by at least 100 yards.  They beat Marshall 38-14, UTEP 31-21 on the road, UMass 36-16 at home, Charlotte 52-17 on the road, UTSA 33-19 at home and Hampton 54-21 at home.  So, all six of their wins have come by double-digits.

And the Monarchs have yet to lose at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while winning by 22.7 points per game on average.  I love the balance of this offense as they average 189 yards per game on the ground and 231 through the air.  And there's no question Old Dominion has one of the best defenses in C-USA, giving up 27.4 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play this season.

Southern Miss has taken a big step back this season.  After making the C-USA title game last year, the Golden Eagles are just 5-4 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They have been overvalued all year and continue to be here as only 2.5-point underdogs on the road.

The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with some awful results.  They only by by 16 over Rice as 25.5-point favorites and by 10 over Marshall as 17-point favorites, both at home.  They lost by 23 at UTSA as 17-point favorites, at LSU by 35 as 25-point dogs and by 11 at home to Charlotte as 17-point favorites.  That's right, they have been upset twice as 17-point favorites here recently.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams, and when you do, it's not even close.  The Monarchs and Golden Eagles have faced the same four teams this year.  Old Dominion is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against them, outscoring them by 20.7 points per game.  Southern Miss is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS against those same four teams, only outscoring them by 0.8 points per game.

Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring teams by 22.7 points per game in the process.  It's worth noting that Southern Miss starting QB Nick Mullens, who means everything to this team, is questionable to play Saturday due to a head injury.  Backup Parker Adamson is completing just 48.7% of his passes on 39 attempts this season.  The Monarchs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Old Dominion Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

I love the grit and determination that Vanderbilt has shown this season in Derek Mason's third year on the job.  At 4-5 on the year, they need to win two of their last three games to get bowl eligible.  And if they are going to do it, this is a must-win against Missouri.

The Missouri Tigers don't have any motivation right now as they sit at 2-7 on the season while going 0-11 in their last 11 SEC games since last year.  Oh how far they have fallen after winning back-to-back SEC East titles in 2013 and 2014.

Vanderbilt is a better team than its 4-5 record would suggest.  Four of its five losses have come by a TD or less.  That includes a 7-point loss to Florida as 14-point dogs, a 7-point loss at Kentucky, and a 7-point loss at Auburn as 25-point dogs last week.  Don't forget that this team beat Georgia 17-16 as 14-point road dogs and Western Kentucky 31-30 as 8.5-point road dogs.

Missouri's two wins this season have come at home over Eastern Michigan and Delaware State.  The Tigers have going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four double-digit losses and an upset home loss to Middle Tennessee as 8.5-point favorites.  They lost by 35 at LSU, by 26 at Florida, by 14 at home against Kentucky and by 10 at South Carolina.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams, and it's clear that Vanderbilt is the superior squad when we do.  The Tigers and Commodores have played five of the same teams this year.  Vanderbilt is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS against them, outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.  Missouri is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS against them, getting outscored by 11.4 points per game.

Missouri has made some nice improvements on offense this year, but that has been countered with a defense that is the worst we've seen for the Tigers in a long time.  The Tigers allow 30.4 points and 469 yards per game this season.  The Commodores only give up 21.6 points and 397 yards per game.

Ralph Webb is one of the best running backs in the SEC, and QB Kyle Shurmur is improving as he has completed 39 of his last 62 passes over the past two weeks.  Webb is primed for a big day on the ground against a Missouri defense that is allowing 231 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry on the season, including 311.2 yards per game during its five-game losing streak.

Vanderbilt beat Missouri 10-3 at home last season as 1-point dogs.  The Commodores held the Tigers to just 188 total yards and 10 first downs in the win.  Their defense, which has allowed 23 or fewer points in five straight games, will allow them to win this game here today as well and get one step closer to bowl eligibility.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the past two seasons.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 275 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +30

The betting public has made a killing on Alabama this season. The Crimson Tide have gone 7-2 ATS, including four straight spread covers. Three of those have come by the smallest margins as they won by 19 over Arkansas as 14.5-point favorites, by 19 over Texas A&M as 18-point favorites and by 10 over LSU as 7-point favorites.

Oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to keep pounding Alabama because the Crimson Tide have come through for them time and time again. So this has created some artificial line value on Mississippi State this week as there’s no way they should be catching 30 points.

It’s worth noting that Alabama only has three wins by more than 28 points this season. The fact of the matter is that the Crimson Tide have created expectations for themselves from the betting public that they simply aren’t going to be able to live up to going forward.

Alabama is also in a bad spot here. Coming off their biggest obstacle of the season in a 10-0 win at LSU last week, the Crimson Tide are primed for a letdown. They are feeling really good about themselves right now after that win. They aren’t going to be concerned with blowing out Mississippi State because they don’t need style points, they just need wins.

And even if the Crimson Tide brought 100% effort this week off that win over LSU, which is unlikely, I still don’t think they’d beat Mississippi State by more than four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are just 4-5 this season, but four of those losses have come by seven points or fewer. That includes road losses to LSU (20-23) and BYU (21-28). Their biggest loss came by 24 points against Auburn, which is playing as well as almost anyone right now.

I was really impressed with Mississippi State’s 35-28 win over then-No. 4 Texas A&M last week. That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Bulldogs outgained the Aggies by 192 yards. They racked up 574 yards of total offense in the win.

Nick Fitzgerald is just they type of dual-threat QB that Alabama has struggled with in the past. He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns against Texas A&M, while also rushing for 182 yards and two scores. The Bulldogs rushed for 365 yards and 6.3 per carry against the Aggies as a team. The freshman Fitzgerald keeps getting better and better as the season goes along.

I looked back since 1992 and this is the biggest favorite Alabama has been over Mississippi State over that time period. The Crimson Tide haven’t been more than 22.5-point favorites in that span. Only once in the last 12 meetings has Alabama won by more than 28 points against Mississippi State.

I know Alabama beat Mississippi State 31-6 last season, but that game was much closer than the final score showed. The Bulldogs actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 14 yards in that contest. That was the second straight season in which they outgained the Crimson Tide. They also outgained them by 93 yards in a 20-25 road loss in 2014.

Plays against home favorites (ALABAMA) – after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Alabama is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 250 or more passing yards per game. Mississippi State is 11-0 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons. The Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games when playing against a team with a losing road record.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas -1.5

The Texas Longhorns have come up with back-to-back huge wins to get to 5-4 on the season and one win away from becoming bowl eligible.  Now I look for them to take another step forward this week with their sixth victory at home against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Texas beat Baylor 35-34 at home as 4-point underdogs two weeks ago.  The Bears were coming off their bye week, so that was a tough spot for the Longhorns and they proceeded to hand Baylor its first loss of the season.  Then the Longhorns went on the road and beat Texas Tech 45-37, outgaining the Red Raiders by 176 yards in the process.

I really like what I've seen from the Texas rushing attack the past two weeks.  It rushed for 257 yards on Baylor and 414 on Texas Tech.  D'Onta Foreman is having one of the best seasons among running backs that nobody is talking about.  He has rushed for 1,446 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per carry.

West Virginia is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 7-1 start, but make no mistake about it, the Mountaineers have faced a very easy schedule this season compared to Texas.  They have only played two true road games all year.  They won at Texas Tech off their bye, but lost 20-37 at Oklahoma State.

Yes, the Mountaineers have perhaps the best defense in the Big 12, but that is being overblown a bit because of the schedule.  They have done a good job of stopping the pass, but they haven't faced many teams that can run the football like Texas.  And the Mountaineers did give up 280 rushing yards to BYU earlier this season.  The Longhorns have great balance as they average 247 rushing yards and 258 passing yards per game.

All four of Texas' losses have come on the road this season, and three of those were one-score games.  But they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 14.7 points per game on the season.  The home team has won each of the past two meetings between these teams.

The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  West Virginia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team witha  winning record.  I believe the Mountaineers get exposed this week as this will be their toughest game to date outside of maybe their 17-point road loss at Oklahoma State.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -4

The Drake Bulldogs are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They went just 7-24 last season, but their point differential does not match their record.  They were only outscored by 4.4 points per game on average for the entire season.

This was a very young Drake team last year, but that's the case no longer.  The Bulldogs bring back four starters and five reserves who played last year.  That includes leading scorer Reed Timmer (16.8 ppg) and Graham Woodward (10.8 ppg), both junior guards.  They add in JUCO transfer De'Antae McMurray to a talented backcourt.

South Dakota went 14-18 last season in Craig Smith's second season with the team.  But now the Coyotes are basically starting from scratch.  They lose all five starters from last season, who all averaged at least 8.3 points per game.

Smith brought in some transfers from other schools to help make up for the departures, but I don't expect the Coyotes to exactly be hitting on all cylinders in the early going with all of the losses.  They lost their top six players in terms of minutes from last year.  Take Drake Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -8.5

The San Antonio Spurs are going to be highly-motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost two straight and three of their last four after a 4-0 start.  The Spurs have inexplicably lost three straight home games after losing just one all of last season during the regular year.

Greg Popovich will get the most out of his players here tonight, especially considering the Spurs are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they will be laying it all on the line in this one.

The Detroit Pistons are 4-0 at home this season, but 0-4 on the road.  They haven't even been competitive away from home this season as they are getting outscored by 16.2 points per game on the road.  They really miss starting PG Reggie Jackson in the early going, and I give them little chance of being competitive here.

San Antonio is 10-1 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks +5.5

The New York Knicks are showing great value here as road underdogs to the Boston Celtics.  The Knicks are starting to catch on to Jeff Hornacek's system as they have won two of their last three while averaging 112.0 points per game in the process.

The Boston Celtics simply should not be favored against many teams right now with the injuries they are dealing with.  They have been without two starters in Al Horford and Jae Crowder in their last couple games, and the results have not been pretty.

The Celtics have lost three straight.  The last two have been especially alarming.  They lost 107-123 as 7-point home favorites over the Nuggets, and 93-118 as 1.5-point road dogs against the Wizards.  Horford and Crowder are their two best defenders, and they miss them more on that end than anything as they are giving up 123.0 points per game in their last three.

This has been a closely-contested series recently as each of the last five meetings were decided by single-digits.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents.  Boston is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

20* Boston College/Florida State ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Boston College +21

I really question what Florida State's motivation is going to be the rest of the way.  The Seminoles were extremely fortunate to beat NC State last week, and I can't see them being too excited to face Boston College tonight.  That lack of motivation is going to make it tough for the Seminoles to win by more than three touchdowns.

The Seminoles had their dreams of winning the Atlantic crushed two weeks ago with a 34-37 home loss to Clemson.  They came back with a lackluster 24-20 win at NC State last week, failing to cover the spread as 6.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 76 yards by the Wolfpack in that contest.

Boston College went on the road and beat NC State 21-14 two weeks ago for a common opponent.  The Eagles outgained the Wolfpack by 48 yards in that contest, playing a much better game than Florida State did against them.

I think the Eagles come in undervalued due to their 7-52 loss to Louisville last week.  But a lot of teams are getting blown out by Louisville as the Seminoles also lost by 43 to them.  The Eagles have struggled with spread teams this year, but FSU runs more of a pro style and they have had success defending those systems.

We've seen Boston College play Florida State tough for three consecutive seasons.  The Eagles lost 14-0 at home last year and were only outgained by 22 yards.  They were only outgained by 78 yards in a 17-20 loss at FSU as 17-point dogs in 2014.  And they lost by 14 as 23.5-point home dogs in 2013 while getting outgained by 92 yards.  So, they have not lost by more than 14 to the Seminoles in any of the last three meetings.

Boston College is 7-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the past three seasons.  Florida State is 1-8 ATS off a road win over the last three years.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Tallahassee.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers may be 6-1 this season, but they have made for excellent fade material as they have been overvalued time and time around.  I think the championship hangover is real, and they aren't giving max effort every night they take the court.

After visiting the White House Thursday, the players' focus certainly won't be on this game as much as it otherwise would be.  That's a huge distraction, and I don't expect the Cavaliers to be putting their best foot forward tonight because of it.

The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They haven't beaten a team by more than 8 points this season since the opener against New York.  Five of their seven games have been decided by 6 points or less.  That is likely to be the case against here against the Wizards, who haven't lost by more than 10 points since their opener.

The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Cavs while only losing by more than 6 points once during that stretch.  They actually won two of their four meetings with the Cavs outright last season.  They have a good shot of pulling off the upset here again tonight.  Take the Wizards Friday.

15* Vanderbilt/Marquette Veterans Classic No-Brainer on Marquette -1

The Marquette Golden Eagles figure to be one of the most improve teams in the country entering Year 3 under Steve Wojciechowski.  They nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year with a 20-13 record and improved by leaps and bounds in his second season.

Now the Golden Eagles return four starters and should be primed to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their guards are loaded with Haanif Cheatham (11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Jajuan Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Traci Carter (5.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) returning as starters.  They also bring back big man Luke Fischer (12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Three of these guys are senior starters and primed for their best seasons yet.

Vanderbilt is in a transition phase as Kevin Stallings left for Pittsburgh.  The Commodores made a solid higher in Bryce Drew from Valparaiso, but I believe there will be some growing pains in his first season.  That's because the Commodores lose their two leading scorers from last year in G Wade Baldwin IV (14.1 ppg, 5.2 apg) and C Damian Jones (13.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg) to the NBA.

Marquette is 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Marquette Friday.

15* Utah/Arizona State Pac-12 BAILOUT on Utah -6

The Utah Utes (7-2) have everything to play for right now.  The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4) don't have the same luxury.  That's why I'm willing to lay the 6 points on the road with the Utes tonight knowing that they are going to bring max effort into Tempe, AZ.

Utah has a chance to make the Pac-12 Championship Game for the first time in program history.  If they win out, they would at worst finish in a three-way tie with Colorado and USC.  And they'd have the tiebreaker over both of those teams in the South Division, likely moving on to face Washington in the title game.

This Utes team could arguably be 9-0 right now.  They only lost 23-28 at Cal after a goal line stand by the Bears late. They also showed what they were made of by going toe-to-toe with Washington last time out, losing 24-31 at home as 10-point underdogs.

The Utes have outgained six of their nine opponents this season, and they were only outgained by 10 yards by USC, by 20 yards against Arizona and by 9 yards against Washington.  Those are some impressive numbers as they've been able to win the box score in most of their games, and haven't been outmatched once.

The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which has been dominated in the box score of late.  After outgaining their first three opponents in Northern Arizona, Texas Tech and UTSA, the Sun Devils have been outgained in all six of their Pac-12 games, and five times by at least 168 yards at that.

With those numbers, the Sun Devils are lucky to be 2-4 in Pac-12 play as they arguably should have lost all six games.  They are only averaging 329.8 yards per game and giving up 543.8 yards per game in Pac-12 play, getting outgained by a whopping 214 yards per game in conference action this season.

Utah is led by surprise returnee running back Joe Williams, who has rushed for 683 yards and six touchdowns in three games since ending a self-imposed retirement on Oct. 11. Williams returned after injuries to the Utes' three top rushers, who were attempting to replace NFL draft choice Devontae Booker.

Utah has built its record with strong defense and special teams play, too. The Utes are tied with Memphis for the FBS lead with 23 takeaways, on 15 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries. They also lead the FBS in net punting.

Arizona State has had a lot of trouble keeping opponents at bay. The Sun Devils have given up 513.6 yards total offense per game, which ranks 124th out of the 128 FBS programs. They have given up 36.6 points a game, which ranks 115th.

The Utes are 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 13.2 points per game on average.  Roll with Utah Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +10.5

I believe there is a ton of value here with the Cleveland Browns catching double-digits against the Baltimore Ravens. There is some artificial line value here based off of what happened last week, with the Ravens upsetting the Steelers and the Browns getting blown out by the Cowboys.

But Baltimore wasn’t all that impressive in its win over Pittsburgh. The Ravens only scored one offensive touchdown, which was a 95-yard pass to Mike Wallace. They other touchdown came on a blocked punt.  They were held to just 274 yards of total offense in the win as Joe Flacco and company continue to struggle on that side of the ball.

Plus, it was Ben Roethlisberger’s first start back from injury, and he showed a lot of rust.  And that win over the Steelers sets the Ravens up for a big letdown here.  The Steelers are their biggest rivals, and I love fading teams coming off a big rivalry game, especially after a victory.

The Browns obviously did not play well last week against the Cowboys, who won 35-10 for their seventh straight victory. But the Cowboys are making everyone look bad this season, and it was by far the worst performance for the Browns this year.

Playing a division rival in the Ravens, and wanting revenge from a 25-20 loss to them at home in their first meeting this season, the Browns will show up to play Thursday night. They blew a 20-2 lead to the Ravens in that first meeting, giving up 23 unanswered points. They certainly haven’t forgotten and will be looking to even the score.

I just don’t see how the Ravens can be laying double-digits against anyone with their offense. The Ravens are averaging just 19.2 points, 325.1 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 24.5 points, 372 yards per game and 5.9 per play. They rank 27th in the NFL in total offense and 30th in yards per play.

The Browns have certainly struggled defensively this season, but their offense is actually averaging 5.8 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.7 yards per play. They have been competent on that side of the ball, and having WR Corey Coleman back to full strength now is a big bonus.

The Ravens just have a tendency of playing in close games dating back to last season. This season alone, all eight of their games have been decided by 8 points or less. In fact, 22 of their last 24 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer, and they haven't won by more than 8 points in that stretch, making for a 24-0 system backing the Browns pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  I expect that trend to continue in this game as the Ravens don’t win by double-digits here.

Cleveland has played Baltimore very tough in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or fewer. The road team has won four of the last five meetings outright, including a 33-30 (OT) win by the Browns last season as 6-point underdogs.

The Ravens are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Baltimore. The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) - after seven or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Browns Thursday.