15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -166

The Chicago Cubs are fighting for a playoff spot and to stay alive in the NL Central.  The Colorado Rockies are 3-16 in their last 19 games overall to fall to 51-91 on the season and simply just going through the motions right now waiting for the season to be over.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big juice on the Cubs today.

I also like what I've seen from Chicago starter Jordan Wicks, who is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in three starts this season.  He'll be opposed by lefty Kyle Freeland, who is 6-14 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  The Cubs are hitting .270 and scoring 5.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  Freeland allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-2 loss to the Cubs in his last start against them.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +2.5

The Jets finally got their quarterback and have one of the most complete teams in the NFL now.  They arguably have the league's best defense, and Rodgers is loaded with playmakers like Garrett Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall and the ageless Randall Cobb.  The only concern with the Packers is their offensive line, but Rodgers' checks at the line of scrimmage and quick release always makes up for offensive line problems.

The Jets are going to have a huge home-field advantage in this game as fans are going nuts about this team in the offseason.  The hype is real, and we're going to see that in Week 1.  The Bills are missing their best pass rusher in Von Miller, who has been placed on the PUP list.  Without him, the Bills won't be able to exploit the one weakness on the Jets in their O-Line.  I also wasn't impressed with the Bills at all in the preseason as Josh Allen struggled to move the ball and put up points when he was in there.  The interior of the offensive line is a weakness, and the Jets will exploit it.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field in his career and was only an underdog eight times.  Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Rodgers is also a perfect 9-0 SU on Monday Night Football since 2013.  Week 1 Monday Night Football underdogs are 28-12-1 ATS since 1998.  Finally, this is the anniversary of 9-11, so that will only add to the raucous crowd the Jets will have in support of them.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +3.5

The New York Giants didn't get much credit for going 9-7-1 in Brian Daboll's first season and winning a playoff game.  That's evident by the fact that they have opened as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.  They are once again getting disrespected, and we'll take advantage here.

I don't think Kellen Moore was the problem last year for the Cowboys, but he was definitely the scapegoat.  I just don't trust Mike McCarthy and don't think it's going to work with him long-term.  The Cowboys have a ton of offensive skill talent, but the offensive line is becoming an issue now after previously being a strength.  They could be without LG Tyler Smith, who was added to the injury report this week.  RG Zack Martin is in the midst of a holdout.  The strength of the Giants is their defensive line, and they will win the battle at the line of scrimmage against Dallas' offensive line.

Daboll didn't have many weapons for Daniel Jones to work with last year, but he should have a few more this year.  They added TE Darren Waller and WR Jalin Hyatt.  The offensive line should also be better with 2nd-round pick C John Michael Schmitz Jr to go along with Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas and RT Evan Neal, who has to be better after being a Top 10 pick two years ago.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018. The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in Week 1 under McCarthy.  The Giants went 6-5-1 SU & 10-2 ATS as underdogs under Daboll last season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -129

I love the spot for the Chicago Cubs today.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks, including the last two by a single run.  I like their chances of getting the job done in Game 4 with their advantage on the mound.

Kyle Hendricks is 5-7 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the Cubs.  Hendricks is 4-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in nine career starts against the Diamondbacks.  He'll be opposed by Brandon Pfaadt, who is 1-8 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 15 starts this season while allowing 52 earned runs and a whopping 17 homers in 74 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 2-14 in its last 16 road games after allowing 4 earned runs or fewer in three consecutive games.  The Cubs are 27-7 in Hendricks' 34 career home starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* Diamondbacks/Cubs NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

After two pitcher's duels in a row in this series between Steele/Kelly and Taillon/Gallen, this total has been set lower than it should be.  The quality of the two starting pitchers Sunday is much lower, especially for the Diamondbacks.

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-8 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 15 starts this season while allowing 52 earned runs and a whopping 17 homers in 74 2/3 innings for Arizona.  Kyle Hendricks has been at his worst at home, going 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA in 11 starts.  Hendricks allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 innings to the Diamondbacks in his last start against them, which came at home.

Hendricks is 15-4 OVER in his last 19 home starts as a favorite.  The weather looks good for scoring with less than 10 MPH winds and temps in the 70's this afternoon at hitter-friendly Wrigley FIeld.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Astros OVER 10

The Astros and Padres have combined for 12 and 13 runs in the first two games of this series.  It should be more of the same Sunday.  The Padres have now scored 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games overall and 4 or more in seven of those.  The Astros have scored a total of 48 runs in their last five games for an average of 9.6 runs per game.  

Matt Waldron is 0-2 with a 5.12 ERA this season for the Padres allowing 11 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings.  JP France has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts coming in for the Astros.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Braves OVER 10

The Atlanta Braves have the best offense in baseball hitting .276 and scoring 5.8 runs per game this season.  They have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games overall.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have quietly scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall and 14 of their last 18 games overall.

Luis Ortiz is an absolute gas can for the Pirates.  He is 3-4 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 9.24 ERA and 2.370 WHIP in his last three, allowing 13 earned runs, 3 homers and 30 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.

Allan Winans has struggled in his three starts for the Braves, going 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in three starts.  Winans allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-4 loss to the Mets in his last start coming in.

Atlanta is 22-5 OVER vs. NL Central opponents this season.  Pittsburgh is 9-0 OVER vs. good teams outscoring opponents by one or more runs per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons will contend for a NFC South title this year.  Desmond Ridder got his feet wet at the end of last season and is now familiar with the offense and ready to hit the ground running in 2023.  They drafted RB Bijan Robinson, who will be an impact player right away and the Falcons should challenge for leading the league in rushing this year.  Drake London and Kyle Pitts are two solid weapons on the outside.

After being ranked dead last in pressure rate each of the last two seasons, upgrading the pass rush was a necessity this offseason.  They did just that by adding DE Calais Campbell, LB Bud Dupree and DT David Onyemata, who along with Grady Jarrett will wreak havoc in opposing backfield this season.

The Carolina Panthers looked terrible in the preseason even when starters were out there against opposing teams' backups.  No. 1 pick Bryce Young will be running for his life behind a terrible offensive line.  RB Miles Sanders and WR's DJ Chark Jr. and Terrace Marshall are highly questionable to play Sunday with injuries.  And the defense doesn't generate any pressure with the exception of LB Brian Burns, who is holding out waiting for a contract extension.  What a me

Atlanta should control this game from start to finish by using long, extended drives on the ground to wear out this Carolina defense.  I like the additions they made this offseason to upgrade their front seven defensively, so they should be able to manhandle this weak Carolina offensive line and make life very difficult on Young.  No. 1 picks at QB making the first start of the season are 0-13-1 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 tries.  The last No. 1 pick to win their first start was David Carr way back in 2002.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cleveland +3

Deshaun Watson shook off some rust last season after returning from an 11-game suspension.  He should hit the ground running in 2023 now that he has two years in the system.  He has one of the best running games to rely on so he doesn't have to be the guy he was in Houston, though he is still capable of being that guy when they need him to.

Speaking of rust, the Cincinnati Bengals could be rusty with Joe Burrow returning from injury.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and I expect them to get off to a slow start.  I also expect the Browns to win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one as they have the better offensive and defensive lines, and you know the Dawg Pound will be rocking for the season-opener, providing them with a big home-field advantage.

This Cleveland defense was a disappointment last year, but they had some major upgrades this offseason.  They signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson, who is an excellent run-stuffer and can rush the passer.  They also signed another former Viking in DE Za'Darius Smith, who collected 10 sacks for Minnesota last year.

Divisional home dogs in Week 1 are 21-4 ATS since 2009 and a perfect 7-0 ATS since 2018.  Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last five home meetings with Cleveland, including a 32-13 win as 3-point home underdogs last year.  They rushed for 172 yards in that win and outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 yards in that home win.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* 49ers/Steelers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh +2.5

No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They went 3-0 winning all three games by double-digits while outscoring the opposition 78-32.  Kenny Pickett is ready to go after getting his feet wet as a rookie last year.  He has some great weapons on the outside and is quickly forming a great chemistry with George Pickens.  The Steelers have a great offensive line and solid running game with Najee Harris.

But the strength of the Steelers is their defense, and they have been a different beast when TJ Watt has been healthy.  They went 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS with Watt on the field last year and ranked 6th against the pass, while they were 1-6 and ranked 30th against the pass without him. I think their defense will give Brock Purdy and this average 49ers offensive line fits.  Remember, Purdy is coming back from offseason elbow surgery, so he could show some rust.  And I think having game film on him now gives Mike Tomlin a big edge to try and take away his strengths and make Purdy make mistakes.

Speaking of importance of pass rushers, Nick Bosa is holding out to try and get a new contract.  He and Watt may very well be the two best pass rushers in the game right now.  The 49ers lost to the Falcons without Bosa last year, and badly.  San Francisco's weakness defensively is the secondary, and that will get exploited if Bosa isn't on the field.  Watt will have his way against the 49ers who will be starting a new tackle.

The 49ers are notorious slow starters under Kyle Shanahan, going 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in Week 1.  They were upset by the lowly Chicago Bears on the road last season.  This is only the second time the Steelers have been home underdogs in Week 1 since 2000.  Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three Week 1 games, including an upset win at Buffalo last year.  The Steelers are 53-30-4 ATS as underdogs under Tomlin, including 16-4-3 ATS as home dogs.  Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3.5

Another year, another chance for the betting public to disrespect Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans.  He and the Titans do the best work when they are counted out, and it looks like they are being counted out again in Week 1 as 3.5-point road underdogs to the New Orleans Saints.

Ryan Tannehill is entering a contract year and has plenty of motivation.  Henry just keeps on ticking and had 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns last year despite missing his starting left tackler for all but one game.  They signed former first-round pick Andre Dillard to replace Tayler Lewan while also drafting LG Peter Skoronski with the No. 11 pick to upgrade the offensive line.  They signed DeAndre Hopkins at receiver to make a nice 1-2 punch with the talented Treylon Burks on the outside.

The Titans have a great defense led by Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry and Teir Tart up front, and a stellar safety tandem in Kevin Byard and Armani Hooker protecting the back end.  The pass rush gets a big boost with the return of Harold Landry, who tore his ACL in late August last year and didn't play a single snap in 2022.  He had 12.5 sacks in 2021.

Derek Carr will be making his first start with a new team behind a shoddy offensive line.  Alvin Kamara won't be available as he serves a four-game suspension, and the Saints just haven't been nearly as explosive without their dynamic back on the field.  The New Orleans Saints lack a pass rush defensively, and the Titans have the big coaching advantage with Vrabel over Dennis Allen, especially with all offseason to prepare for this game.

Vrabel is 22-9-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher as a head coach.  Carr is 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite as a starting quarterback.  Allen is 15-38 SU & 21-31-1 ATS as a head coach.  New Orleans is 6-9 SU at home over the past two seasons, and only three teams have won fewer than six home games in that span.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* Auburn/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The Auburn Tigers now have the head coach they have been looking for in Hugh Freeze.  He has won everywhere he has gone, including Liberty.  His offenses are some of the best in the country every season, and he is already working his magic at Auburn.

The Tigers racked up 59 points and 497 total yards on UMass in the opener in a game that saw 73 combined points.  Now they face an explosive Cal offense that just put up 58 points and 669 total yards against North Texas in a game that saw 79 combined points.  I don't think we'll have a problem seeing more than 54 combined points in this matchup given what we've seen thus far.

The misconception that Cal is a defensive team is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Cal gave up 27.8 points and 429 yards per game last season.  After having just four starters back on offense last year, the Golden Bears have eight starters back on offense this season including a very good QB in NC State transfer Ben Finley.  They returned their leading rusher and leading receiver, plus four starters and 92 career starts on the offensive line.

The new offensive coordinator is Jake Spatival, who was the Texas State had coach the last four years and ran a wide open, up-tempo system with them that he has brought to California.  That coaching hire is getting overlooked as this appears to be Cal's best offense of the Justin Wilcox era.  He is finally embracing offense because being defensive-minded has not worked for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Guardians/Angels OVER 8.5

Both the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Angels should have a lot of success at the plate tonight against these two gas cans.  I expect both starters to have to exit this one early to pave the way for two poor bullpens as well.

Lucas Giolito is 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 3-8 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Giolito has been absolutely rocked in his last two starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 8 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings in two starts against the Angels in 2023.

Tyler Anderson is 5-5 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  Anderson has been rocked in his last three starts, going 0-1 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.675 WHIP while allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings.  Anderson allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 6 innings in his lone start against Cleveland in 2023.

The OVER is 43-24 in Anderson's last 67 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +31

The Florida State Seminoles may very well be national title contenders this season.  But this is a great spot to fade them.  We'll 'sell high' on them after their 45-24 win over LSU on Sunday which was a much closer game than the final score would indicate.  They only outgained LSU by 34 yards and 0.3 yards per play.  Now the Seminoles are working on a short week and this is a massive letdown spot off the LSU win, plus a sandwich spot with their ACC opener against Boston College on deck.

Southern Miss is good enough to stay within 31 points of Florida State even if this wasn't a letdown spot.  Will Hall is one of my favorite head coaches to back in the country.  He got the Golden Eagles to a bowl game in just his second season last year, and they delivered with a 38-24 win over Rice.  They didn't lose a single game by more than 28 points last year, and three of their six losses came by a single score.

Now the Golden Eagles welcome back 15 starters this season including RB Frank Gore, who rushed for 1,382 yards and nine touchdowns last season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  The Golden Eagles have an upgrade at quarterback in Billy Wiles after not getting much out of the position the last few years.  Wiles completed 21-of-28 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in a 40-14 win over Alcorn State as 24-point favorites in their opener.  The defense is a strength after allowing 23.5 points per game last year, and they held Alcorn State to just 226 total yards in the win.

Southern Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Houston/Rice Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rice +8.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Rice held their own in a 37-10 loss at Texas in the opener as 35.5-point underdogs despite losing the turnover battle 3-0.  They got the cover against one of the best teams in college football, and now they take a big step down in class here against Houston.

Rice will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 34-27 as 17.5-point dogs at Houston last year.  They were only outgained by 3 yards against Houston last year and easily could have won.  I like their chances to cover in the rematch considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.

Houston had a misleading 17-14 win over UTSA in the opener.  They only had 339 total yards while giving up 417 yards to UTSA, but won the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  They were outgained 4.9 yards per play to 5.9 yards per play for UTSA.  They won't be so fortunate against Rice this week.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Owls are 52-30 ATS in their last 82 games as home underdogs.  Holgorsen is 5-15 ATS following an ATS win as the coach of Houston.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +3

Wrong team favored here.  UConn dealt with a ton of injuries last year yet still made a bowl game.  They went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven regular season games before losing to Marshall in the bowl game.  They returned 17 starters from that team and have much better health this season.  Jim Mora is already putting his stamp on this program.

UConn was impressive in a 14-24 loss as 14.5-point dogs to NC State in the opener.  They gained 5.2 yards per play on offense and only allowed 5.1 yards per play on defense.  NC State gained 364 yards on 72 plays, so that performance from the defense was special.

The Georgia State Panthers are going the wrong direction.  They fell to 4-8 last season and gave up 31.2 points per game.  They only return 12 starters this season including five on defense.  They lose their best playmaker in WR Jamari Thrash, who caught 61 balls for 1,122 yards and seven touchdowns last season.  Their next-leading receiver caught just 22 balls for 379 yards and six scores.

Georgia State's opener against FCS Rhode Island was very concerning.  They were lucky to win that game 42-35 as 17.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 96 yards by Rhode Island, giving up 520 yards and 6.9 per play defensively.  UConn is going to score at will on this defense, and I expect the Huskies to get more stops than Georgia State does.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +10.5

New Mexico State made a bowl game in Jerry Kill's first season with the program last year.  They returned 13 starters this season and should be 2-0, but their misleading 41-30 loss to UMass is keeping them flying under the radar.  They outgained UMass 458 to 389 in that game, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 which was the difference.  The Aggies responded with a 58-21 win over Western Illinois as 21.5-point favorites to play up to their potential, outgaining them 651 to 251 for the game, or by 400 total yards.

Liberty just lost the most profitable ATS coach in the country in Hugh Freeze.  Now the Flames are in rebuilding mode in the first year under head coach Jamey Chadwell.  The cupboard is bare with just eight returning starters.  Liberty is getting too much respect for covering as 8-point favorites in a 34-24 win over Bowling Green in the opener.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the week as Bowling Green should have won outright, but they committed five turnovers and lost the turnover battle 5-1.  Remember, New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-14 last season.  They outgained them by 115 total yards in that game and will certainly give the Flames a run for their money again this year.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 10

There are expected to be nearly double-digit winds blowing out to left in Boston today that will help aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket.  The Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in 15 of their last 18 games overall.  The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last six games overall.

Chris Sale is 6-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 16 starts this season.  Sale has not enjoyed facing the Orioles this season, going 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA while allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 19 base runners in 8 innings in two starts against them.

Jack Flaherty is 8-8 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 25 starts between the Orioles and Cardinals this season.  He has not been sharp at all of late, going 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 6-1 in six meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox this season.  The OVER is 15-5 in Sale's last 20 starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 runs.  The OVER is 12-4 in Flaherty's 16 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs this season.  The OVER is 10-1 in Sale's last 11 starts vs. good teams that are outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State FOX No-Brainer on Iowa State +4

Everyone wants to fade the Iowa State Cyclones early in the season due to the suspensions from the sports betting scandal.  They opened as 20-point favorites against Northern Iowa and were bet down to -7.  All that sharp money and steam lost as Iowa State won 30-9.

I know they were outgained for the game, but keep in mind Northern Iowa ran 27 more plays than they did.  The more telling stat is Iowa State averaged 5.6 yards per play while Northern Iowa only averaged 3.9 yards per play, so the Cyclones outgained them by 1.7 yards per play.

The suspensions didn't hurt Iowa State defensively as they have one of the best defenses in the country.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons.  Northern Iowa QB Theo Day is expected to be one of the best QB's in FCS after having a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last year.  They held him to 16-of-34 passing and intercepted him twice.

Iowa was a 24-point favorite against Utah State last week and only scored 24 points, winning by 10.  And they even had incentive to run it up with coordinator Brian Ferentz having incentives in his contract to average 25 or more points per game.

That's a Utah State defense that is expected to be one of the worst in the country this season after allowing 31.2 points per game last year and bringing back only five starters on that side of the ball, and nine starters total.  It just looks like same old Iowa offense after one game, and I struggle seeing them getting margin because of it.

Utah State outgained Iowa 329 to 284 and 4.6 yards per play to 4.2 yards per play, outgaining them by 0.4 yards per play.  Iowa's rushing attack took a big step back last year, and it doesn't look any better this year after rushing for just 88 yards on 36 carries for an average of 2.4 per carry against a Utah State defense that allowed 194 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry last year.

I think the perception is still down on Iowa State after the offseason they had, and this line should be closer to PK.  There's value with Iowa State at anything +3 or higher as a home underdog.  Only Nebraska has more one-score losses than Iowa State over the past three seasons, making them a huge sleeper due to their poor luck in one-score games.  They are due some positive regression.  Matt Campbell is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.

Each of the last five meetings in this rivalry have been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Iowa State has outgained Iowa by 105 or more yards in three consecutive meetings and by an average of 145 yards per game.  They held Iowa to 150 total yards last year and 173 total yards the year prior.  Their defense will lock down the Hawkeyes again, and I expect them to pull off this upset at home.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +38

Michigan is overvalued to start the season due to finally making the four-team playoff last year under Jim Harbaugh.  Now they have expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

That was evident in their opener as they only beat East Carolina 30-3 as 35.5-point favorites.  They have a ton of players either questionable or out for this game.  That's an ECU team that lost a lot of talent from last year with just 10 returning starters.  They lost their all-everything QB in Holton Ahlers, two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher.

Now Michigan must take on an upstart UNLV team that I would have favored over East Carolina.  UNLV went 5-7 last year and would have made a bowl game if not for some injuries, most notably to starting QB Doug Brumfield.  But Brumfield is among 13 returning starters for the Rebels, and they have an upgrade at head coach in former Missouri HC Barry Odom.

The Rebels were very impressive in their opener, beating Bryant 44-14 as 15.5-point favorites.  Brumfield went 11-of-18 passing and also rushed for 49 yards in the win.  The Rebels rushed for 268 yards as a team and should be able to shorten the game with their rushing attack.  ECU rushed for 103 yards on 26 carries against Michigan.

UNLV is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games following a blowout win by 28 or more points.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/UTSA OVER 65.5

Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne is a name you will want to remember.  He comes over from Incarnate Word, where he led the most explosive offense in the FCS scoring 52 points per game and averaging 581 yards per game.  He has brought that offense and several players with him to Texas State, and his tenure is off to a tremendous start.

Texas State upset Baylor 42-31 last week as 26.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result either.  Both teams even left some points on the board and still combined for 73 points.  I think we see another shootout here this week with UTSA.

Auburn transfer TJ Finley completed 22-of-30 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score in the win over Baylor.  This Texas State defense is a problem again this season with just four returning starters.  Baylor racked up 524 total yards on Texas State and should have scored more than 31 points.

UTSA returns eight starters on offense from a unit that put up 36.8 points per game and 476 yards per game last year.  That includes Frank Harris, the school's all-time leading passer who completed 69.6% of his passes last year for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.

Speaking of leaving points on the board, UTSA lost 14-17 to Houston last week, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  UTSA had 417 total yards but committed three costly turnovers. They had no problem moving the football, but Houston's defense bent and didn't break.  I guarantee you Texas State's defense will break in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -137

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping the first two games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  I expect them to bounce back with a victory in Game 3 with their ace on the mound.

Justin Steele is making his case to win the NL Cy Young award.  He is 16-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 12-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 16 home starts.  Steele has fired 14 shutout innings with 20 K's in his last two starts coming in.  He has also posted a 0.82 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona, allowing just one earned run and 8 base runners in 11 innings with 19 K's.

Merrill Kelly has been more vulnerable on the road than he has been at home this season.  Kelly has a 3.69 ERA and 1.332 WHIP in 12 road starts in 2023.  Kelly does not enjoy facing the Cubs, posting a 4.76 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Cubs are 9-0 in Steele's last nine starts and 13-1 in his last 14 starts.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets/Twins OVER 8.5

There are expected to be nearly double-digit winds blowing out to center at Target Field in Minnesota today.  That's bad news for these two gas can starting pitchers up against these two offenses as this one should sail OVER 8.5 combined runs.

David Peterson is 2-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in 17 starts for the Mets this season, including 1-5 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.790 WHIP in nine road starts.  He'll be opposed by Kenta Maeda, who is 2-2 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in seven home starts thsi season.  Maeda is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 14 innings.

The Twins have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last seven games overall and should hit at least that number today.  The Mets have scored 6 runs or more in three of their last five games overall.  The Twins score 4.8 runs per game at home, while the Mets score 4.7 runs per game on the road.

The OVER is 12-3 in Peterson's last 15 road starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 runs.  The OVER is 17-6 in Maeda's last 23 starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Ball State +42.5

This is more of a play against Georgia than it is a play on Ball State.  The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off two consecutive national championships.  They are the kings of college football right now, and with that comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

I think Georgia is just going through the motions in the early going this season.  They opened with a 48-7 win over FCS Tennessee-Martin as a 51-point favorite.  So they didn't even score 51 points, which makes it impossible to cover.  They even had 10 points in the final two minutes of that game including a pick-6 to make the margin 41.

Now Georgia has the SEC opener on deck against South Carolina and could be looking ahead to that game and going through the motions against Ball State.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals just played an SEC team in Kentucky last week in one of the most misleading finals and bad beats of the week.

Ball State lost 44-14 to Kentucky despite only getting outgained by 62 yards.  They held the Wildcats to 357 total yards, which is impressive considering Kentucky was expected to have an improved offense with NC State transfer QB Devin Leary among 10 returning starters on offense.

The reason the score was more lopsided than it should have been is because Kentucky had a fumble return TD and a 99-yard kickoff return TD.  The reason it was a bad beat is because Ball State was down 23 in the final seconds and Kentucky threw the ball on four of their final six plays with Mark Stoops knowing the spread, and they scored with six seconds left to win by 30 as 25-point favorites.  Leary was still in the game with Kentucky's starters on that final drive.  

Georgia won't be having its starters playing in the 4th quarter of this one.  I expect them to call off the dogs early and to be getting ready for that SEC opener against South Carolina next week.  Ball State won't be wide-eyed in this one after facing an SEC team already and going toe-to-toe with them for the most part.  Their QB's went a combined 22-of-30 for 223 yards without a pick against a good Kentucky defense, and freshman Kadin Semonza looked to separate himself, going 15-of-21 for 165 yards and a score.

Kirby Smart is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 42.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia.  He has never covered in this point spread range, and he won't start this weekend.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

15* Troy/Kansas State FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Troy +17

The Kansas State Wildcats won the Big 12 title last year out of nowhere.  That seems to happen every year where a team from the Big 12 wins it out of nowhere.  But with that title and that 10-win season comes expectations from the media, the oddsmakers and the betting public that are difficult to live up to.

Kansas State is a ball control team that relies on defense to win games.  They don't blow anyone out, and they aren't about to blow out a similar Troy team with a ball control offense that plays great defense.

Troy went 12-2 last season to win the Sun Belt Conference, which is consistently one of the most underrated conferences in the country and routinely produces upsets of Power 5 teams.  Now the Trojans return 12 starters from that team, including QB Gunnar Watson and leading rusher Kimani Vidal, who rushed for 1,132 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.

This line has been inflated largely due to Kansas State covering their opener 45-0 against SE Missouri State, while Troy failed to cover its opener in a 48-30 win over Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite.  But Troy easily should have covered when you look deeper into the numbers from that game.

Stephen F. Austin somehow scored 30 points despite only 240 total yards.  That's because Troy committed four turnovers and was very sloppy.  Troy had 540 total yards and a great showing offensively.  They outgained Stephen F. Austin 8.4 yards per play to 4.1 yards per play, or by 4.3 yards per play.  It was a much more dominant performance than the final score showed.

Now Troy is licking its chops at the opportunity to face a Power 5 team.  Troy's two losses last year came at Ole Miss by 18 as 21-point dogs and by 4 at Appalachian State on a hail mary as 13-point dogs.  That's how close they were to being 13-1.  They were only outgained by 87 yards in that 18-point loss at Ole Miss to show what they could do against a strong SEC opponent.  They will be ready for this test against Kansas State.

Kansas State has three starters that are either out or questionable in RT Christian Duffie (35 career starts), WR Keagan Johnson (Iowa transfer) and DT Uso Seumalo.  The Wildcats lost six starters on defense from a year ago, plus they lost their two best playmakers in RB Deuce Vaughn (1,558 yards, 9 TD) and WR Malik Knowles (48 receptions, 725 yards, 2 TD).

Troy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Wake Forest Early ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +10

Wake Forest lost their star QB in Sam Hartman to Notre Dame in the transfer portal.  They cannot possibly replace him, and they only return 11 starters this season.  The Demon Deacons are finally going to have to go through a bit of a rebuilding year, and we saw that in their opener.

Wake Forest only beat Elon 37-17 as 32-point favorites.  That's a poor showing, and now they are laying double-digits to an improved Vanderbilt team that is off to a 2-0 start this season, beating Hawaii 35-28 and Alabama A&M 47-13.  Vanderbilt returned 15 starters this season and should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC.

Wake Forest has some key injuries in this one as well.  WR Donavon Greene is out, and that's a big blow considering he's the team's leading returning receiver, catching 37 balls for 642 yards and six touchdowns last season.  LB Chase Jones is questionable, and he's the team's leading returning tackler with 74 tackles and 6 TFL last year.

Vanderbilt is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Vanderbilt) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards, with an experienced QB returning against a team with an inexperienced QB are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Rangers OVER 8.5

The OVER is 5-0 in Rangers last five games overall with 11 or more combined runs in all five games.  The OVER is 4-2-1 in A's last seven games overall with 9 or more combined runs in four of those seven games.  Both these starting pitchers have not fared well against these lineups.

Paul Blackburn is 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in seven road starts this season.  Blackburn is 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.125 WHIP in four career starts against Texas, allowing 28 earned runs in 16 innings.

Jordan Montgomery has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings for a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts coming in.  Montgomery has allowed 7 earned runs and 15 base runners in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Oakland.

Texas is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games following six of more consecutive home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Illinois/Kansas ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56.5

Kansa is a dead nuts OVER team.  They put up 35.6 points per game last season and allowed 35.5 points per game, averaging 71.1 combined points per game.  They have 10 returning starters on offense so will be explosive again, and their defense won't improve much if at all.

Illinois lost their defensive coordinator from last year, and that's huge considering they had one of the best defenses in the country.  They lost five starters from that defense and three of their top four tacklers.  I do like the prospects of their offense with Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmyer along with each of their top two receivers returning in Isaiah Williams and Pat Bryant.

Illinois played a shootout with Toledo in the opener winning 30-28 on a last-second field goal.  The offense looked good with Altmyer, who completed 18-of-26 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and one pick, while also rushing for 69 yards on nine carries to show off his dual-threat ability.  But the defense allowed 28 points and 416 total yards to a MAC opponent in Toledo, a clear sign they have taken a huge step back defensively this season.

Kansas put up 48 points and 521 total yards on Missouri State in the opener.  That was even with backup Jason Bean at quarterback.  While he is one of the better backups in the country, the Jayhawks are expected to get their dynamic QB in Jalon Daniels back from injury for this one.  He completed 66.1% of his passes with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 425 yards and seven scores in nine starts.

The weather looks ripe for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 80's tonight at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.  Kansas is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games with a total set of 56.5 to 63 points.  Lance Leipold is 14-4 OVER after a win by 21 or more points as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Pirates/Braves OVER 9.5

The Atlanta Braves have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last eight games overall and average 5.8 runs per game on the season.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in eight of their last nine games overall and are having a ton of success at the plate of late.

Bryce Elder has been hit and miss this season for the Braves.  One miss was his lone start against the Pirates on August 10th where he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 7-5 road loss to Pittsburgh.

Mitch Keller is 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.340 WHIP in four career starts against the Braves.  He has allowed 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 39 base runners in 16 2/3 innings in those four starts.

Atlanta is 20-5 OVER vs. NL Central opponents this season.  The OVER is 4-1 in Pirates last four games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 10

There are expected to be double-digit winds blowing out to left in Boston tonight that will help aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket.  The Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in 14 of their last 17 games overall.  The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games overall.

Tanner Houck is 4-8 with a 5.07 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in eight home starts.  Houck is 1-2 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore.

While Kyle Bradish is having a good season, one of his worst starts of the year came against the Red Sox where he allowed 7 earned runs and 12 base runners in 2 1/3 innings.  He also allowed 7 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in his previous start against the Red Sox.  Bradish is now 0-4 with a 9.36 ERA and 1.840 WHIP in six career starts against Boston.

The OVER is 5-1 in six meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds -115

The Cincinnati Reds have a big rest advantage over the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.  They had Thursday off while The Cardinals completed a series in Atlanta on Thursday.  The Reds also have a big advantage on the mound over the Cardinals tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Andrew Abbott is 8-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in eight home starts.  He faced the Cardinals once this season, firing 5 2/3 shutout innings in an 8-4 victory.

The Reds should tee off on Drew Rom, who is 0-2 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.902 WHIP in three starts this season despite facing the lowly Pirates twice, allowing 9 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings in those two starts.

The Reds are 13-4 in Abbott's 17 starts this season.  Bet the Reds Friday.

20* Lions/Chiefs 2023 NFL Season Opener on Detroit +6

Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice this week and is doubtful to play Thursday.  He means everything to the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes because he's his security blanket on 3rd down and in the red zone.  Kelce finished with 210 receptions for 1,338 yards and 12 TD last year.  He has topped 83 receptions and 1,000 yards in seven consecutive seasons and hasn't missed a game other than when they were resting starters.

DT Chris Jones is out Thursday due to a holdout as contract negotiations have stalled.  He had 15.5 sacks last year and is their best player on defense.  So the Chiefs are missing two of their three best players to start the 2023 season.  They are extremely vulnerable here as a 6-point favorite in a game they will likely lose outright, and at the very least struggle to get out with a close win.

The upstart Detroit Lions went 8-2 in their final 10 games last year to make a run at the playoffs.  They beat the Packers in Week 17 on the road to keep them out.  They finished 9-8 for their first winning record since 2017.  They scored 26.6 points per game and average 380 yards per game with a Top 5 offense in the NFL.  The defense got better as the season progressed and an influx of talent on that side of the ball should have them improving again this season.  They are also extremely healthy to start the season.

Jared Goff looks as comfortable as he's ever been in Detroit.  He is also 6-0 ATS in Week 1 as a starting quarterback.  The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games in the first half of the season.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Lions.  Detroit is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  Dan Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Detroit.  Bet the Lions Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -153

The Chicago Cubs are coming up clutch trying to make the playoffs and chase down the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.  They are red hot at the plate right now scoring a total of 39 runs in winning each of their last four games.

The Cubs will stay hot at the plate against Ryne Nelson, who is 6-7 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 18.00 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings.  Nelson will be making his first start since August 11th here and there will be a rust factor.

Javier Assad is one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now.  Assad is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in his last three.  He has allowed just one earned run and 13 base runners in 15 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Braves OVER 10

The Atlanta Braves have the best offense in baseball hitting .275 and scoring 5.8 runs per game.  The St. Louis Cardinals are going through their best stretch of the season at the plate during their 5-2 run in their last seven games, scoring 5 runs or more in six of those seven games while averaging 6.6 runs per game.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own off Adam Wainwright, who is 3-10 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.980 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  But the Cardinals have scored 10 and 11 runs in winning each of the first two games of this series, including hammering Spencer Strider yesterday.  They can get to Max Fried, who is 1-1 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in four home starts this season.

There will be 9 MPH winds blowing out to left in Atlanta tonight to held aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.  Atlanta is 10-1 OVER in Thursday games this season.  Atlanta is 19-5 OVER vs. NL Central opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on White Sox/Royals OVER 9.5

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Royals last five games overall with 15, 14, 10, 13 and 13 combined runs all at home.  The Royals have scored a total of 40 runs in their last five games for an average of 8.0 runs per game.  The White Sox blew a 6-0 lead yesterday and have terrible starting pitching and a bad bullpen.

Touki Toussaint is 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.764 WHIP in five road starts.  He isn't about to cool off the Royals, and once he departs early the White Sox have a 4.87 ERA as a bullpen.

Chicago should get its bats going against Jordan Lyles, who is 4-15 with a 6.17 ERA in 26 starts this season while allowing a whopping 34 homers.  Lyles is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in his two starts against the White Sox in 2023, allowing 8 earned runs in 14 innings.  Once Lyles departs, the Royals have an even worse bullpen with a 5.24 ERA on the season.

The OVER is 8-0 in White Sox last eight games vs. bad teams that are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/A's OVER 8

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last five games overall with 22, 15, 12, 11 and 8 combined runs.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in A's last six games overall with 9, 11, 16 and 11 combined runs in the four overs.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Oakland today to help aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket.

The Blue Jays are capable of covering this total on their own off JP Sears, who is 3-11 with a 4.54 ERA in 27 starts this season while allowing a whopping 31 homers.  Sears is 1-5 with a 4.98 ERA in 12 home starts while allowing 16 homers in 65 innings.  Sears is 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 innings.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts coming in for the Blue Jays.  Ryu has allowed 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against the A's as well.

Ryu is 11-1 OVER in his last 12 starts after giving up 2 earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts.  Oakland is 20-8 OVER vs. AL East opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -136

The Chicago Cubs are coming up clutch trying to make the playoffs and chase down the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.  They are red hot at the plate right now scoring a total of 31 runs in their last three games.  The Giants are falling apart with five consecutive losses.  They have scored 3 runs or fewer in five of their last seven games, including one run or fewer four times.

The Cubs will stay hot at the plate against lefty Alex Wood, who is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Wood has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.091 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Cubs are hitting .268 and scoring 5.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

Lefty Jordan Wicks has been impressive in two starts this season, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs in 10 innings with 12 K's.  Those weren't easy tasks as they were both on the road against the Reds and Pirates.  The Giants are hitting .235 and scoring 3.9 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

San Francisco is 4-19 in its last 23 road games.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/A's OVER 8

The OVER is 4-0 in Blue Jays last four games overall with 22, 15, 12 and 11 combined runs.  The OVER is 4-1 in A's last five games overall with 9, 11, 16 and 11 combined runs in the four overs.

The Blue Jays are capable of covering this total on their own off Ken Waldichuk, who is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in 19 starts this season while allowing a whopping 20 homers in 86 innings.

Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable on the road for the Blue Jays with a 5.02 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 14 road starts this season, allowing 42 earned runs and 18 homers in 75 1/3 innings.  Bassitt allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 5-4 loss to the A's in his lone start against them in 2023.

Oakland is 20-8 OVER vs. AL East opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+102)

The Baltimore Orioles continue coming up clutch trying to win the AL East.  They are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in 10 of those 12 games.  The Angels have been a dumpster fire since the trade deadline.  They are 8-23 in their last 31 games overall, including 1-7 in their last eight games and were just swept at Oakland over the weekend while getting outscored 21-9 in the process.

Dean Kremer is 12-5 with a 4.20 ERA in 27 starts this season, 5-3 with a 3.77 ERA in 11 road starts, and 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts and 12 of his last 14 starts overall.  Kremer is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts against the Angels.

Reid Detmers is 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA in 24 starts for the Angels this season.  He has really struggled of late, going 1-5 with a 7.56 ERA in his last nine starts while allowing 35 earned runs and 10 homers in 41 2/3 innings.

Baltimore is 14-1 in its last 15 games as a road favorite of -125 or more and outscoring opponents by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Orioles are 9-1 in Kremer's last 10 starts and winning by 3.4 runs per game.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -115

The Chicago Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 games overall and have scored a total of 20 runs in their last two games.  The San Francisco Giants are 1-5 in their last six games and have scored a total of 5 runs in the five losses.  They have been held to one run in 27 innings in losing each of their last three games coming in.

The Giants will stay cold at the plate against Kyle Hendricks, who is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hendricks ranks among the MLB leaders with 16 starts allowing 3 earned runs or fewer since May 25th.  He nearly threw a no-hitter in his last start against the Giants on June 10th, firing 8 shutout innings while allowing only two base runners.

Hendricks is now 6-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Giants.  He and the Cubs should be much bigger favorites today considering how poorly the Giants have hit the ball of late.  Opener Ryan Walker goes for the Giants before giving way to the bullpen and likely the awful Sean Manaea.

The Cubs are 26-7 in Hendricks' last 33 home starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  The Giants are 0-7 in their last seven road games after batting .200 or worse over a 5-game span.  San Francisco is 4-18 in its last 22 road games.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-114)

The Baltimore Orioles continue coming up clutch trying to win the AL East.  They are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in nine of those 11 games.  They are raking right now and will stay hot at the plate against Kenny Rosenberg, who will be making his first start of the season for the lowly Angels.

The Angels have been a dumpster fire since the trade deadline.  They are 8-22 in their last 30 games overall, including 1-6 in their last seven games and were just swept at Oakland over the weekend while getting outscored 21-9 in the process.

Grayson Rodriquez is going through his best stretch of the season for the Orioles.  He is 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 42 2/3 innings while allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in all seven starts.

Baltimore is 13-1 in its last 14 games as a road favorite of -125 or more and outscoring opponents by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Monday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -132

The San Francisco Giants have gone 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring a total of 5 runs in the four losses.  They just cannot hit.  Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs just hung 15 runs on the Reds yesterday and are feeling good about themselves at the plate.

They will get to Logan Webb, who is 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in his last three starts.  Webb has posted a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs.  He is getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this money line today.

Ace Justin Steele goes for the Cubs and will make life even more difficult on this weak San Francisco lineup.  Steele is 15-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

20* LSU/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 56.5

This will actually be the 3rd meeting in three seasons between Brian Kelly and Mike Norvell.  Florida State played Notre Dame to open the season in 2021 when Kelly was there.  And last year Florida State beat LSU 24-23 to open the season for just 47 combined points.  It's safe to say these two head coaches are familiar with one another and their schemes, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That's amplified when both teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another.

Florida State's defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 20.6 points per game and 322 yards per game last season.  LSU's defense is loaded as well with seven returning starters from a unit that allowed 22.5 points and 355 yards per game last year.  The advantage goes to these two defenses over the offenses.

The offenses were held in check last year with Florida State getting 24 points and gaining 392 total yards and LSU getting 23 points and 352 total yards.  Now with the rule changes the clock won't stop on first downs and I can't see either team topping 400 yards in this one given the familiarity and the fact that both teams want to establish the run.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (LSU) - in a game involing two teams that had winning records last season in non-conference Power 5 games are 66-20 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 56.5 to 63 (LSU) - a good offense from last season that average 400 or more yards per game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning in the first two weeks of the season are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  Kelly is 38-21 UNDER when the total is 56.5 to 63 points in all games as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Yankees/Astros ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are raking right now scoring a total of 59 runs in their last seven games for an average of 8.3 runs per game.  The New York Yankees have gotten their bats going again scoring 4 runs or more in nine of their last 11 games overall.  I think both teams get 4-plus runs in this one as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Christan Javier has taken a big step back for the Astros this season with a 4.66 ERA in 25 starts.  Javier has a 7.24 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 29 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  He allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers and 7 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Yankees in 2023.

Micheal King is basically just an opener for the Yankees and has averaged 2.9 innings per start in his three starts this season.  He has faced the Tigers, Nationals and Marlins, which are three of the worst lineups in the league.  Now he takes a big step up in class here against Houston.

Houston is 14-3 OVER when revenging a one-run loss this season.  The OVER is 17-7-1 in Javier's 25 starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Dodgers OVER 9

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 11 games and are scoring 5.6 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 10 games and are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season.

This total is too low for these two offenses.  Charlie Morton is pitching well of late but takes a big step up in class here.  Morton is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Bobby Miller, who has posted a 5.28 ERA in eight home starts this season.

The Dodgers are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Rangers -135

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory today after suffering three consecutive losses, including each of the first two games of this series to the Twins.  They will avoid the sweep today and salvage with a victory in Game 3 due to their advantage on the mound.

Jon Gray is 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Kenta Maeda, who is 3-7 with a 4.69 ERA in 16 starts this season.  Maeda has really been roughed up of late with an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings to the Guardians, Brewers and Tigers.

The Twins are 1-8 in Maeda's nine day game starts this season.  Bet the Rangers Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Royals OVER 9.5

It has been hot in Kansas City all weekend with the wind blowing out to center and that will be the case again Sunday.  These teams combined for 15 runs in Game 1 and 14 runs in Game 2 and it should be more of the same in Game 3.  Temps will be in the 90's with double-digit winds blowing out to center this afternoon.

Chris Sale is 5-3 with a 4.75 ERA in 15 starts for the Red Sox this season, including 4-3 with a 5.44 ERA in eight road starts.  Taylor Clarke is merely an opener for the Royals today as they will make this a bullpen game.  The Royals have a 5.29 ERA as a bullpen this season and a 5.61 ERA at home.

The OVER is 15-5 in Sale's last 20 starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Boston is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 road games vs. a AL team with a .330 OBP or worse.  Boston is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 road games vs. a AL team hitting .255 or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9.5

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 10 games and are scoring 5.6 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last nine games and are averaging 5.9 runs per game this season.

This total is too low for these two offenses.  Plus, both of these starting pitchers are vulnerable.  Bryce Elder is 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  Emmet Sheehan is 3-1 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three.

The Dodgers are 11-0 OVER in their last 11 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 12-0 OVER in its last 12 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on South Alabama +6.5

South Alabama went 10-3 last season with two of the losses coming 32-31 at UCLA and 10-6 to Troy, which won the Sun Belt.  They also lost to Western Kentucky in the bowl and weren't motivated after not getting a shot at a conference title or a better bowl game.

Now South Alabama comes back motivated and returns a whopping 18 starters, making them one of the most experienced teams in the country.  They have nine starters back on offense and nine more back on defense, including each of their top six tacklers from last year.  They scored 31.2 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.

I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Tulane early in the season.  They came out of nowhere to win the AAC Title last year and also capped it off with an improbable 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl, coming back from 14 points down in the final minutes.  That was also an unmotivated USC team that had just lost in the Pac-12 Championship and didn't want to be playing Tulane.

The Green Wave have some big losses on both sides of the ball.  They lose RB Tyjae Spears, who rushed for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns last year while averaging 6.9 per carry.  They lose each of their top two receivers.  On defense, they lose each of their top five tacklers and won't be nearly as good on either side of the ball after outgaining opponents by 81 yards per game last season.  I think the Green Wave open 2023 a little flat after a historic season last year that will be hard to match.  Bet South Alabama Saturday.

20* UNC/South Carolina ABC No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are loaded this season.  They have 17 returning starters entering the 5th year of the Mack Brown era.  That includes arguably the best quarterback in the country in Drake Maye, who threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions, while also rushing for 698 yards and seven scores as a freshman last year.

Maye is among nine returning starters on offense.  They have 137 career starts returning along the offensive line and add OL coach Randy Clements, who helped North Texas average 200 rushing yards per game last year.  The only two big losses are their top two receivers, but they add in productive Kent State and Georgia Tech transfers.

The defense has the chance to be one of the most improved in the country with eight starters back from a unit that was a disappointment last year, allowing 30.8 points and 437 yards per game.  They hired former Indiana defensive coordinator Charlton Warren to right the ship.  He has a ton of talent to work with and each of the top five tacklers back from last year.

South Carolina will be one of the least-experienced teams in the country this year.  The Gamecocks return only 10 starters after having 14 and 15 back in Shane Beamer's first two seasons on the job.  Beamer did a good job of getting the most out of those teams, but he has his hands full this year even with QB Spencer Rattler back.

The Gamecocks return six starters on offense and will be larning new schemes under coordinator Dowell Logains, who was the TE coach at Arkansas the last two years.  The Gamecocks lose their leading rusher and have to replace four of their top five receivers.  Chemistry will be an issue on this side of the ball in the early going.

The defense looks even bleaker.  The Gamecocks allowed 28.8 points per game and 405 yards per game last season.  Only four starters return, and they lose seven of their top 11 tacklers.  

The hype on the Gameocks is high after finishing strong last year beating Tennessee and Clemson and also giving Notre Dame a run for its money in the bowl game.  The Tar Heels are flying under radar because they lost their final four games last season after a 9-1 start.  Three of those four losses came by 4 points or fewer.  They have been pissed off all offseason due to that finish and will come out swinging in Week 1.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* Toledo/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are the class of the MAC this season.  They won 9 games last year with four of their five losses coming by one score.  So they only lost one game by this kind of margin, which came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State.

The Rockets now return 16 starters from that squad and have a ton of talent.  They bring back QB Finn, all of their top rushers and each of their top two receivers.  They also return four starters along the offensive line plus get back Tyler Long from injury and he has 19 career starts with the team.

The Toledo defense returns eight starters from a unit that only allowed 25.1 points and 326 yards per game last season.  They have the defense that can keep them in this game with Illinois, plus they'll make enough plays on offense to give the Fighting Illini all they can handle.

I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois after a surprising 2022 campaign in which they went 8-5 after losing 19-10 to Ole Miss in the bowl game.  Illinois is going to have a good defense again, but they do lose three of their top four tacklers and coordinator Ryan Walters left for Purdue.

My biggest problem with Illinois is the offense, which loses QB Tommy DeVito and leading rusher Chase Brown, who rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 TD Last year.  Illinois is not going to be able to score enough points to consistently get margin this season, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us with this offense is asking too much.

Illinois is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* Phillies/Brewers NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Milwaukee Brewers are absolutely raking at the plate right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall with the only two exceptions being when the wind was blowing in heavy at Wrigley Field two days in a row.  The same can be said for the Phillies, who have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  This is a very low total for how hot these offenses are up against these two starting pitchers today.

Colin Rea is 5-5 with a 5.06 ERA in 19 starts this season while allowing 19 homers in 99 2/3 innings.  Rea is 2-3 with a 5.58 ERA in 10 home starts, allowing 12 homers in 50 innings.  He'll be opposed by Aaron Nola, who has been great at home but terrible on the road.  Nola is 6-5 with a 5.26 ERA in 15 road starts this season, allowing 19 homers in 90 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 13-2 in Rea's last 15 home starts as an underdog.  The OVER is 13-3 in Nola's last 16 road starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+107)

I like the Texas Rangers to bounce back in blowout fashion today due to their advantage on the mound.  The Minnesota Twins have huge righty/lefty splits this season and are hitting just .222 and scoring 3.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.  The Rangers are hitting .273 and scoring 6.1 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery is 8-10 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.201 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Montgomery has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 12 of those, and one earned run or fewer in nine of them.

Lefty Dallas Kechel goes for the Twins.  He is washed up and no more than a fill-in starter.  Keuchel is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in three starts this season.  His lone road start was a complete disaster as he allowed 6 earned runs and 8 base runners in 1 2/3 innings of a 13-2 loss at Philadelphia.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Yankees/Astros OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are raking right now scoring a total of 55 runs in their last six games for an average of 9.2 runs per game.  The New York Yankees have gotten their bats going again scoring 4 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games overall.  I think both teams get 4-plus runs in this one as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Luis Severino has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 4-7 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-5 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in nine road starts.  Severino is also 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career starts against Houston, including 0-5 with a 5.26 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 25 2/3 innings.

Hunter Brown is one of the most overrated starters in baseball for Houston.  He is 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.336 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  While Brown has been much better on the road, he has been awful at home, going 3-5 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in 10 home starts this season.  Brown is also 1-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.

The Yankees are 12-3 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders this season.  Severino is 34-19 OVER in his 53 career starts after allowing one earned run or fewer in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Colorado State +11

The Colorado State Rams will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Jay Norvell stepped into a tough situation in his first season and the Rams went 3-9.  They played well defensively allowing 26.9 points per game and 355 yards per game, but Norvell didn't have the players to run his air raid system that he perfected at Nevada prior.  Now he does.

The Rams return 15 starters including seven on offense.  They bring back QB Clay Millen, who completed 72.2% of his passes.  Also back are leading receiver Tory Horton (71 receptions, 1,131 yards, 8 TD) and leading rusher Avery Morrow (834 yards, 4 TD, 4.8/carry).  Eight starters are back on defense and this should be one of the top stop units in the MWC.

I'm pretty down on Washington State this season.  The Cougars only have 12 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last season.  They only beat one team that went to a bowl game last year, and they lost 29-6 to fellow Mountain West foe Fresno State in their bowl game.

QB Cameron Ward is back for the Cougars, but he loses each of his top four receivers from a year ago, and chemistry will be an issue.  The defense only brings back five starters from a unit that gave up 402 yards per game last season.  They will take an even bigger step back on this side of the ball.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Colorado State) - a terrible offensive team from last season that scored 14 or fewer points per game, with an experienced QB returning as a starter in the first month of the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* UTSA/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on UTSA ML -120

Jeff Traylor is doing a tremendous job at UTSA.  They won the conference title each of the last two seasons going 12-2 in 2021 and 11-3 in 2022.  It should be more of the same here in 2023 with 16 returning starters including QB Frank Harris, who it feels like has been here for a decade.

Harris completed 70% of his pases for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.  Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes (845 yards, 6 TD, 6.3/carry) returns, as do four of the fop five receivers.  Eight starters are back on this explosive offense that put up 36.8 points and 476 yards per game last season.

This has the potential to be one of the best defenses of the Traylor era with eight returning starters on defense.  They only had five back last year and still only allowed 25.9 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on defense this season and added in a ton of talent at the junior college level.  They have three first or second-team All-USA players returning in NG Brown, LB Moore and LB Ligon.

UTSA will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 35-37 (3 OT) to Houston last year.  I like their chances considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.  

Holgorsen is 3-12 ATS in Saturday home games as the coach of Houston.  Traylor is 12-4 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of UTSA.  The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Houston opened the favorite but now UTSA is favored, and I whole-heartedly agree with that move.  Bet UTSA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Army -8.5

You'll almost never see a service academy with 17 returning starters because there's usually so much turnover with these programs.  But that's the case for the Army Black Knights this year.  They return 17 starters from a team that was disappointed to finish 6-6 last season with three losses by 1 to Troy, by 6 to Air Force and by 3 to UTSA.  Those were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country last year.

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks are one of the worst Group of 5 teams.  They went 4-8 last season for a second consecutive year under Terry Bowden.  But now Bowden only has 10 returning starters this season and lost a lot to the transfer portal.  That includes QB Chandler Rogers, who left for North Texas after completing 67.5% of his passes last year.

ULM only averaged 22.2 points per game last season and will be even worse off on offense this season.  The Warhawks gave up 34.4 points per game last season and won't be much better on defense with only five starters back.

We saw this matchup last season as Army blasted Louisiana-Monroe 48-24 and gave up 441 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and I see another double-digit win coming for Army as they run all over the Warhawks.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin -27.5

The Wisconsin Badgers got their guy.  Luke Fickell proved he's one of the best head coaches in the country by taking Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff becoming the first coach to take a Group of 5 team to the big dance.  Now he steps into a tremendous situation here at Wisconsin.

The Badgers are loaded with talent and experience with 18 returning starters this season.  They add in SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai, who completed 66% of his passes for 7,152 yards and a 72-to-22 TD/INT ratio.  The Badgers have been missing a quarterback for years, but now they have their guy.  He'll thrive in OC Phil Longo's system after Longo produced record-breaking offenses at North Carolina the last four years.

Wisconsin always has an elite defense and that won't change this year.  They only had three starters back on defense last year and still only allowed 20.2 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on D this year and the last two times they had eight back they allowed 16.2 and 17.4 points per game.

The Buffalo Bulls are in a world of hurt this year.  They return just 10 starters for head coach Maurice Linguist.  They were fortunate to get to a bowl last year and won their final two games by a combined 3 points.  We saw Buffalo get a taste of a Big Ten school in the opener last year as they lost 31-10 at Maryland.  It will be an even bigger step up in class here for them against Wisconsin, and I fully expect the Badgers to win by four-plus touchdowns.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Rice/Texas CFB ANNIHILATOR on Rice +35.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Texas is getting a lot of hype this year as it seems everyone thinks they're back and will win the Big 12.  But I still don't trust Steve Sarkisan even with all the talent he has brought here.  And it's asking a lot for Texas to win by more than five touchdowns to cover this number in their opener on Saturday.  I'll gladly fade the hype.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +35.5

Head coach Don Brown is a UMass legend.  It was a rebuilding year in his first season back with the program last year as the Minutemen went 1-11.  Now he has his players in place and 15 returning starters in his second season back, and we've already seen what this team is capable of.

In Week 0 UMass upset New Mexico State, which made a bowl game last year, 41-30 as 7-point underdogs.  UMass rushed for 197 yards in the win but also look like they found their quarterback in Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh, who completed 10-of-17 passes for 192 yards.  He also led them an the ground with 96 rushing yards on 17 attempts and a score and I love his dual-threat ability.  Brown is a defensive guy and will come up with a good game plan to slow down Auburn.

Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country and has made me a lot of money over time.  But he won't be hitting on all cylinders early in his first season on the job at Auburn in 2023.  The Tigers went 5-7 last year and while they are experienced with 17 returning starters, it's going to take them some time to learn the new systems on offense and defense under new coordinators.

I think this UMass offense can punch in a couple scores and that will be enough to cover this 35.5-point spread with a total of 51.5.  If UMass gets to 14 they will cover, and I think they can do that.  Auburn isn't scoring 49 points on this Don Brown defense, especially not with a running clock and the game being shortened.  The Tigers will call off the dogs in the 2nd half if need be for us to get this cover.

UMass is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. SEC opponents.  Bet UMass Saturday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in nine consecutive games and are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last eight games and are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season.

This total is too low for these two offenses.  Julio Urias is having a down year for the Dodgers with a 4.41 ERA in 20 starts with 21 homers allowed in 112 1/3 innings.  Max Fried has been solid for the Braves, but he has allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 11 2/3 innings to the lowly Giants in his last two starts.

The Dodgers are 10-0 OVER in their last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 11-0 OVER in its last 11 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-115)

It's now or never for the Boston Red Sox.  They are 6.5 games out of the wild card and have a month to make it up.  It starts with their series against the lowly Kansas City Royals tonight.  The Royals are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall with seven losses by two runs or more.  This is the perfect opponent for the Red Sox to get back on track after facing the Astros for seven games and the Dodgers for three games during a brutal stretch.

The Red Sox have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind James Paxton, who is 7-4 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Paxton has never lost to the Royals, going 4-0 with a 1.51 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in all eight starts, including firing 19 1/3 shutout innings with 29 K's in his last three.

The Red Sox will tee off on Jordan Lyles, who is one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  Lyles is 3-15 with a 6.39 ERA in 25 starts while allowing a whopping 33 homers.  That includes 0-2 with a 9.59 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 17 earned runs and 9 homers in 16 innings.  Lyles is also 2-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.788 WHIP in 10 career starts against Boston.  He has allowed 14 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Red Sox.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Astros -1.5 (+125)

The Houston Astros are 5-0 in their last five games overall while scoring outscoring opponents 52-17 in the process.  They are red hot at the plate and that will continue tonight against the lowly New York Yankees, who are 5-13 in their last 18 games overall and out of playoff contention.

The Astros have the rest advantage after having yesterday off while the Yankees played extra innings in Detroit on Thursday.  They also have the advantage on the mound behind Justin Verlander, who is 10-6 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 11 home starts.

Verlander has owned the Yankees over the past two seasons, going 3-1 with a 1.41 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing just 5 earned runs in 32 innings.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three road starts.  Rodon allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 2 2/3 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Astros in his lone start against them in 2023.

The Yankees are 1-7 in Rodon's eight starts this season and getting outscored by 2.3 runs per game.  Houston is 13-2 vs. starting pitchers that average less than 5 innings per start this season and outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game.  New York is 4-17 in its last 21 road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Friday.

20* Louisville/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech +7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

Jeff Brohm has eventually been successful everywhere he has gone.  He turned around Western Kentucky and Purdue both, but it didn't happen overnight.  That will be the case here as it's going to take some time to build this Louisville program.  The offense won't be clicking in Week 1 learning the new schemes, and the defense loses 33.5 of the 50 sacks they had last year.  Louisville will be lucky to escape Atlanta with a win, let alone a cover.  Bet Georgia Tech Friday.

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Marlins/Nationals UNDER 8.5

The Miami Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in nine of their last 11 games overall and the UNDER is 9-2 in those 11 games.  The Washington Nationals have scored 3 runs or fewer in five of their last six games overall and the UNDER is 4-2 in those six games.  This total is too high for these two struggling offenses tonight.

Eury Perez is 5-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 15 starts this season and the new ace of this Miami staff.  Perez is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in two starts against the Nationals this season, allowing one earned run and 8 base runners in 11 innings.

Jake Irvin is quietly having a solid season with a 4.38 ERA in 20 starts.  Irvin has been very sharp of late, posting a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  He has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in two starts against the Marlins in 2023, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 innings.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Perez's seven road starts this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Braves/Dodgers OVER 8

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in eight consecutive games and are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last seven games and are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season.

This total is too low due to both Spencer Strider and Lance Lynn being sharp of late.  But both take a big step up in competition here, and I expect both to struggle.  Lynn has a 5.56 ERA and 1.381 WHIP on the season and had a bad outing against the Red Sox last time out, allowing 3 runs, 2 homers and 11 base runners in 6 innings.

Lynn allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-5 win over Strider and the Braves in his lone start against them this season on July 15th.  Strider allowed 4 runs, 2 earned, and 8 base runners in 6 innings in his lone start against the Dodgers this season.

Lynn is 18-8 OVER in all games this season.  Lynn is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 starts vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more homers per game.  The Dodgers are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Padres OVER 8.5

Two gas cans go tonight for both the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres.  That should lead to 9-plus combined runs as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Sean Manaea is 1-2 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.809 WHIP in six starts for the Giants this season, allowing 19 earned runs, 5 homers and 41 base runners in 22 2/3 innings.  Pedro Avila is 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in two starts for the Padres, allowing 6 earned runs and 15 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.  Manaea has allowed 9 earned runs and 17 base runners in 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against San Diego.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Florida/Utah ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -6

A lot of the talk surrounding this game is with Utah QB Cam Rising.  He likely won't be announced in or out until right before game-time.  He did say he feels 'damn good' on Monday, and it would be an added bonus if he plays.  I'm here to tell you it's not going to matter either way.

Utah has one of the best head coaches in the country in Kyle Whittingham.  He has had all offseason to prepare for Florida, and great coaches have an even bigger advantage with more time to prepare.  This is a loaded Utah team with 16 returning starters including the top offensive and defensive lines in the Pac-12, and the top linebackers and defensive backs in the league.

As you can see, the defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that allowed 21.4 points per game last year.  The offense returns seven starters when you include Rising.  Backup Brandon Rose is questionable as well, possibly leaving it to third-string Bryson Barnes.  He got forced into action last year and played well, completing 64.9% of his passes for 430 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 116 yards and 5.8 per carry.  Whoever is under center will have the benefit of playing behind what Whittingham calls his most talented O-Line ever.

The drop off from Rising to Barnes wouldn't be as big as the drop off from Anthony Richardson to Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  Richardson was the 4th pick in the draft last year and was a huge dual-threat, rushing for 6.3 per carry and 9 TD on ground.  Mertz was highly ranked out of high school but was a major disappointment in his four seasons at Wisconsin.  He had a 38-to-26 TD/INT ratio in his career there and consistently makes poor throws, while also not being a dual-threat.

Second-year head coach Billy Napier has his hands full this season with just 11 returning starters from a team that went 6-7 last year.  The offense is going to take a step back, and the defense is going to be poor again after allowing 28.8 points and 411 yards per game last season.  Only five starters return on defense, and the Gators lose each of their top five tacklers from last year.

Utah is a legit Pac-12 title contender and will be hungry for revenge after blowing the game in Florida last year in a 26-29 defeat.  Now the Utes get to host the Gators inside Rice-Eccles Stadium Thursday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country, and that is amplified when playing a week night game.  

Utah is 26-2 SU at home over the past five seasons with an amazing 25 of those wins coming by 6 points or more, and 24 by 7 points or more.  Bet Utah Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The OVER is 6-0 in Dodgers last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all six games.  They have scored 5 runs or more in seven consecutive games and are capable of covering this total on their own.  The Diamondbacks are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in eight of those 10 games.

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-6 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 13 starts this season while allowing a whopping 15 homers in 67 innings.  He'll be opposed by Ryan Pepiot, who cannot be expected to go very deep in this game as the Dodgers are making it a bullpen game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Astros/Red Sox AL ANNIHILATOR on Boston +125

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Houston Astros.  I like the value we are getting on the Red Sox as home underdogs to avoid the sweep in Game 3 today.

Kutter Crawford has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 6-5 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 17 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.766 WHIP in his last three.  Crawford allowed one earned run in 6 innings of a 2-1 victory over the Astros in his lone career start against them.

Framber Valdez went deep into his last start with a no-hitter through 7 innings but was unable to finish it due to poor control with 5 walks.  I could see him having a tired arm in this one and it really affecting him.  He had allowed 9 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his previous two starts prior to that near no-hitter against the lowly Tigers.

Boston is a very profitable 19-11 (+16.4 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Red Sox are 25-8 after playing four or more consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Cubs UNDER 7

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing in from left today at Wrigley Field in Chicago.  That will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket.  It worked yesterday in a 1-0 victory for the Cubs with 20 MPH winds blowing in from center.  It will be more of the same today with runs hard to come by.

Ace Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers today and is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.883 WHIP in six starts this season.  Kyle Hendricks goes for the Cubs and is 5-7 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 18 starts this season.

Hendricks is 10-8 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 32 career starts against Milwaukee.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 12 starts against the Brewers.  Woodruff has allowed one earned run or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts against the Cubs.

Milwaukee is 9-1 UNDER in road games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 1.250 WHIP or better this season.  The Brewers are 17-3 UNDER in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control walking 1.75 or fewer batters per start this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +146

The Cleveland Guardians are trying to chase down the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.  This is a huge game for them if they want any chance to catch them, and I love the value we are getting on the Guardians today.

Tanner Bibee is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 10-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in 21 starts for the Guardians this season.  Sonny Gray hasn't had much success against Cleveland of late, going 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs and 23 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -160

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a tear at the plate right now during their 9-3 run over last 12 games.  They have scored at least 6 runs in nine of those 12 games.  They take on the hapless Los Angeles Angels, who are just going through the motions now after basically being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Angels are 7-19 in their last 26 games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 20 games overall.  They have also been held to 4 runs or fewer in 23 of their last 30 games overall and haven't topped 7 runs once during that stretch.  They are without Mike Trout right now and injuries have really decimated them.

The Phillies have a big advantage on the mound today behind Cristopher Sanchez, who is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Reid Detmers, who is 3-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 23 starts, 1-6 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.637 WHIP in his last three starts.

Philadelphia is 18-4 in home games vs. left-handed starters this season and outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Angels are 3-15 vs. NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +145

Alex Cobb and the San Francisco Giants have no business being this big of a favorite over Brandon Williamson and the Cincinnati Reds tonight.  This line should be much closer to even money, thus we'll take the value with the Reds to bounce back in Game 2 of this series.

Williamson is 4-3 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts, including 2 runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts.  Williamson held the Giants to 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start against them in 2023.

Cobb is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 26 base runners in 15 innings.  Cobb allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-1 loss to the Reds in his lone start against them in 2023.  

San Francisco is a dreadful 25-29 (-16.8 Units) in its last 54 games as a home favorite of -125 to -175.  Cincinnati is a very profitable 27-25 (+14 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* Brewers/Cubs NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -126

This feels like a must-win game for the Chicago Cubs if they want any shot of winning the NL Central.  They now trail the Brewers by 5 games for 1st place after dropping Game 1.  I expect them to bounce back in Game 2 with ace Justin Steele on the mound.

Steele is 14-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 24 starts this season for the Cubs.  Steele is 1-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.  The Brewers are hitting .221 and scoring 3.3 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season with huge righty/lefty splits.

Corbin Burnes allowed 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings to the White Sox and 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings to the Twins in two of his last three starts.  Burnes allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 4-0 loss to the Cubs in his lone start against them in 2023.

The Cubs are 8-1 in Steele's nine night starts this season and outscoring opponents by 4.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Astros/Red Sox OVER 10

Two teams that are hot at the plate square off tonight insider hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  The OVER is 9-1 in Astros last 10 games overall and they have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last nine games.  That includes a ridiculous 39 runs in their last three games overall coming in.

The OVER is 12-0 in Red Sox last 12 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in 11 of those 12 games.  Boston has scored at least 4 runs in 11 of those 12 games and at least 6 runs in seven of them.

The hitters will have the advantage in this game having seen these starters in their last starts.  JP France allowed 10 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a 17-1 loss to the Red Sox on August 24th.  Brayan Bello was much sharper in that game but still allowed 12 base runners in 7 innings and was fortunate to give up only one run.  He won't be so fortunate tonight as the Astros are blistering hot at the plate right now.

The OVER is 5-0 in five meetings between the Astros and Red Sox this season with 10 or more combined runs in all five, and 12 or more combined runs in four of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -121

The Texas Rangers are in a 3-way battle with the Mariners and Astros for first place in the AL West that will be a thrilling race the rest of the way.  They came up clutch last night with two runs in the 9th inning to beat the Mets 4-3.  That win stopped the bleeding, and now they should come back with a ton of confidence tonight.

I'll gladly back lefty Andrew Heaney, who is 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Heaney has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in two career starts against the Mets.  New York has huge righty/lefty splits this season and is hitting just .221 and scoring 3.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

Conversely, the Rangers own southpaws hitting .275 and scoring 6.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.  They should crush washed-up lefty Jose Quintana, who allowed 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his last start.  Quintana has allowed 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Texas.

The Mets are 11-37 as underdogs this season.  Bet the Rangers Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-113)

The Baltimore Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and fighting to win the AL East.  They have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 10 games overall and will hang another big number on the hapless Chicago White Sox tonight to cover this Run Line.

The White Sox are simply going through the motions since selling at the deadline.  The White Sox are 11-23 in their last 34 games overall with nine of those wins coming against non-playoff contenders.  Now they face Dean Kremer, who is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kremer pitched 6 shutout innings in a 7-0 home win over the Blue Jays in his last start.  Kremer fired 5 2/3 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory in his lone career starts against Chicago as well.

I'll gladly fade Jesse Scholtens, who is 0-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 13 earned runs in 15 innings.  The White Sox are 1-6 in Sholtens' seven starts this season.

The Orioles are 11-2 in Kremer's last 13 starts with nine wins by 2 runs or more.  Baltimore is 26-6 as a favorite of -150 or more this season and outscoring opponents by 2.3 runs per game.  The Orioles are 20-4 vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season and outscoring them by 2.3 runs per game.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+122)

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a tear at the plate right now during their 8-3 run over last 11 games.  They have scored at least 6 runs in eight of those 11 games.  Now they take on the hapless Los Angeles Angels, who are just going through the motions now after basically being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Angels are 7-18 in their last 25 games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 19 games overall.  They have also been held to 4 runs or fewer in 23 of their last 29 games overall and haven't topped 7 runs once during that stretch.  They are without Mike Trout right now and injuries have really decimated them.

The Phillies have a big advantage on the mound today behind Michael Lorenzen, who is 7-8 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Andrson, who is 5-4 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  Anderson has really been roughed up in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 6 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Phillies in his last start against them.

Philadelphia is 17-4 in home games vs. left-handed starters this season and outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Angels are 3-14 vs. NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-125)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall with eight wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored 6 runs or more in nine of their last 13 games overall as well.  Now they take on the Oakland A's, who are 38-93 this season.

Bryan Woo has posted a 3.60 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in his last three starts and gets to face the A's for the first time this season, which works to his advantage.  He'll be opposed by Kyle Muller, who is 1-4 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.962 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 10.42 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in five road starts.  Muller allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings of an 11-2 loss to the Mariners in his lone career start against them.

The Mariners are 7-0 against the A's in 2023.  They improve to 8-0 Monday with a win by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Monday.

20* Brewers/Cubs NL Central No-Brainer on Chicago -118

The Chicago Cubs trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 4 games in the NL Central.  This is a huge series for them to gain some ground, and I expect them to take Game 1 tonight.

Lefty Wade Miley goes for the Brewers tonight.  The Cubs are hitting .273 and scoring 5.6 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  Miley allowed 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Cubs in his lone start against them this season.

Jameson Taillon has had a lot of success against the Brewers in his career.  He has posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 12 career starts against them.  The Brewers are hitting .230 and scoring just 4.1 runs per game on the road this season.

The Cubs are 25-6 in their last 31 home games after scoring 9 runs or more in consecutive games.  Taillon's teams are 25-7 in his 32 career starts vs. teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game in the second half of the season.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

15* Astros/Red Sox AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

Two teams that are hot at the plate square off tonight insider hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  The OVER is 8-1 in Astros last nine games overall and they have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight games.  That includes 26 runs in their last two games coming in.

The OVER is 11-0 in Red Sox last 11 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in 10 of those 11 games.  Boston has scored at least 4 runs in 10 of those 11 games and at least 6 runs in seven of them.

Christian Javier has posted a 4.52 ERA in 24 starts this season and a 5.33 ERA in 14 road starts while allowing 15 homers in 74 1/3 innings away from home.  Chris Sale has posteda. 4.68 ERA in 14 starts this season and a 5.14 ERA in his last three.  Neither starter can be trusted to make it out of the 5th inning in this one.

Houston is 15-1 OVER in Monday games this season.  The OVER is 16-7-1 in Javier's 24 starts this season, while the OVER is 8-4-2 in Sale's 14 starts.  The OVER is 9-1 in Sale's last 10 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Yankees/Tigers AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

Two gas cans take the mound tonight in Game 1 of this series between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers.  This total is too low for a game involving two of the worst starters in baseball.

I also expect the Tigers to tee off on Luis Severino, who has amazingly kept his spot in the rotation despite being one of the worst starters in baseball.  Severino is 3-7 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 0-5 with a 9.08 ERA and 2.103 WHIP in eight road starts.  The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall.

The Yankees have scored at least 4 runs in four of their last five games with the OVER going 4-1.  They should do a fair bit of damage on Reese Olson, who is 2-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 12 starts for the Tigers this season.

The OVER is 5-1 in Tigers last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in five of those six games, all of which have come at home.  Detroit is 21-8 OVER in home games at night this season.  Detroit is 13-3 OVER in home games vs. a team witha. losing record this season.  The Tigers are 12-2 OVER in their last 12 home games vs. a starting pitcher that allows one or more homers per start.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -141

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a tear at the plate right now during their 7-3 run over last 10 games.  They have scored at least 6 runs in seven of those 10 games.  Now they take on the hapless Los Angeles Angels, who are just going through the motions now after basically being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Angels are 7-17 in their last 24 games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 18 games overall.  They have also been held to 4 runs or fewer in 22 of their last 28 games overall and haven't topped 7 runs once during that stretch.  They are without Mike Trout right now and injuries have really decimated them.

I'll gladly fade Lucas Giolito, who has been a disaster since getting traded to the Angels.  Giolito is 1-5 with a 7.06 ERA in his last seven starts while allowing 28 earned runs and 10 homers in 35 2/3 innings.  He is also 3-7 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in 14 road starts this season.

Taijuan Walker has been at his best at home for the Phillies this season, going 6-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 13 home starts.  Walker's teams are 12-1 in his last 13 home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.  Walker's teams are 17-3 in his last 20 home starts with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs.  Giolito's teams are 4-18 in his last 22 starts as an underdog.  Bet the Phillies Monday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-135)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with eight wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored 6 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games overall as well.  They'll be opposed by the Kansas City Royals, who are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall with six losses by 2 runs or more.

The Mariners are coming off a 15-2 win over the Royals yesterday.  It should be more of the same today with their big advantage on the mound.  Luis Castillo is 10-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in 14 home starts.

Alec Marsh is still in search of his first victory for the Royals this season.  He is 0-5 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.704 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs and 10 homers in 27 innings.  The Royals are 0-6 in Marsh's six starts with five losses by 3 runs or more.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +170

The Washington Nationals have quietly gone 23-11 in their last 34 games overall with 18 wins as underdogs.  That includes wins as +190, +190 and +185 underdogs in their last three games coming in.  The Miami Marlins have no business being this big of a favorite today considering they are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall while scoring a total of 13 runs in their last seven games overall for an average of 1.86 runs per game.

Trevor Williams will hold this cold-hitting Marlins lineup in check today.  He has a respectable 4.26 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in six career starts against Miami.  JT Chargois will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins and is no more than an opener as they will be making this a bullpen game.

The Nationals are 7-3 (+9.4 Units) in Williams' 10 starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest this season.  The value on the Nationals is too good to pass up today.  Bet the Nationals Sunday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -125

The New York Yankees are 2-11 in their last 13 games overall and dead in the water when it comes to the playoff picture.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given their current standing.  Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays have a lot to play for the rest of the way.

The Rays also have a big advantage on the mound today with the underrate Zack Littell, who is 2-3 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who is 1-4 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 23 earned runs and 9 homers in 33 innings.  Rodon is 0-2 with a 9.65 ERA in two road starts.  He has never beaten the Rays, going 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Tampa Bay is 40-9 in its last 49 home games vs. a starting pitcher that averages less than 5 innings per start and outscoring opponents by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Rays Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Blue Jays UNDER 9

The Cleveland Guardians have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games overall.  The Toronto Blue Jays have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 17 games overall.  Runs will be hard to come by for both struggling offenses against these two starting pitchers today.

Yusei Kikuch is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 9-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Kikuchi owns the Guardians with a 1.67 ERA and 0.815 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 21 innings in his last three starts against Cleveland.

No question Noah Syndergaard is having a rough year.  But one bright spot came in his last start against Toronto on August 10th when he held the Blue Jays to one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-3 victory.  Syndergaard is now 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto, allowing just 4 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

The UNDER is 30-15 in Blue Jays last 45 games overall.  Toronto is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. poor power teams averaging 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  The UNDER is 5-1 in six meetings between the Guardians and Blue Jays this season with 7 or fewer combined runs in all 5 UNDERS.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118

Javier Assad has quietly gone 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in two road starts.  The Cubs are 4-1 in Assad's five starts this season.

I'll gladly fade Bailey Falter, who is 0-6 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in four road starts while allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings.  Falter allowed 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings in his lone career start against Chicago.

The Cubs are 8-1 against the Pirates in 2023.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +11

Florida International was one of the worst teams in college football last season.  They did a good job of getting to 4-8 with only 11 returning starters and a first-year head coach in Mike MacIntyre.  He is the king of turning programs around.

Indeed, MacIntyre went 1-11 in his first year at San Jose State and in his 3rd year got them to 11-2 and ranked inside the Top 25.  They went 4-8 in his first year at Colorado but in Year 4 they made the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Last year MacIntyre took over a Panthers team that had gone 0-8 in conference play the previous season.  They were a dog in all 11 FBS games and a double-digit dog in nine of them but pulled off three upsets, including against this same Louisiana Tech team.

Now the Panthers return 12 starters, move up 50 spots in experience rankings and are in Year 2 under MacIntyre and are familiar with the systems with both coordinators back.  Six of the top eight tacklers are back on what should be one of the most improved defenses in the country.  QB Grayson James returns as a nice dual-threat to lead the offense.

But this is more of a play against Louisiana Tech than it is a play on Florida International.  They wish they had Skip Holtz back at this point.  Sonny Cumbie had a disastrous first season in Ruston as the Bulldogs went 3-9 with their three wins coming against SF Austin, UTEP and Middle Tennessee.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits, and they were upset by FIU and Charlotte to boot.

They have 12 returning starters but will be without their stud RB in Marquise Crosby for the opener.  He rushed for 918 yards and 9 TD last season while averaging 5.0 per carry.  Hank Bachmeier comes in from Boise State at QB, but he was a disaster for the Broncos last season and that team improved greatly once he was benched.

While the LA Tech offense will be respectable under Cumbie's guidance, he just isn't a defensive-minded head coach.  That was evident last year with the Bulldogs allowing 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game.  They gave up 6.1 yards per carry on the ground.  It's hard to expect much improvement considering they return just 4 starters on defense and lose eight of their top 10 tacklers.

This game will likely be decided by single-digits either way, so there's tremendous value in 'buying low' on the Panthers after already upsetting the Bulldogs at home as 6-point dogs last year.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -128

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated to bounce back from a one-run loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday.  I like their chances of getting back on track today with their big advantage on the mound.

Javier Assad has quietly gone 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in two road starts.  The Cubs are 4-1 in Assad's five starts this season.

Colin Selby will be an opener for the Pirates today before giving way to Osvaldo Bido.  Bido is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 44 1/3 innings this season.  The Cubs have the advantage at the plate and in the bullpen as well.

The Cubs are 7-1 against the Pirates in 2023.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on A's/White Sox OVER 9

The A's and White Sox combined for 13 runs in Game 1 and 16 runs in Game 2.  It should be more of the same with these two starting pitchers going tonight.

Touki Toussaint is 1-6 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.728 WHIP In nine starts this season.  Toussaint is 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA and 2.308 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs, 14 walks and 4 homers in 13 innings.

JP Sears is 2-10 with a 4.54 ERA in 25 starts this season.  His big problem has been giving up the long ball as he has already allowed 28 homers in 2023.  Sears allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 innings of a 14-2 loss to the White Sox in his lone career start against them.

Chicago is 24-9 OVER as a favorite of -150 or less this season.  Oakland is 38-23 OVER in road games this season.  Chicago is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. bad teams that are outscored by 1.0 or more runs per game.  The OVER is 5-0 in five meetings between the A's and White Sox this season with 11 or more combined runs in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Baltimore Ravens +2

No analysis for preseason.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/Jacksonville State OVER 53.5

Both UTEP and Jacksonville State are pretty loaded on offense but suspect on defense.  As a result, I am siding with the OVER in the season opener between two teams that aren't familiar with one another at all.

Jacksonville State makes the move from FCS to FBS this season.  Rich Rodriquez is in his second season here and guided the Gamecocks to a 9-2 record last season.  The offense was electric putting up 36.2 points per game while the defense gave up 390 yards per game.

Rodriquez has nine returning starters on offense including electric QB Zion Webb, who is a dual-threat who rushed for 647 yards and 13 touchdowns last year.  He has each of his top two receivers back, leading rusher Malik Jackson (818 yards, 8 TD, 7.1 YPC) and four starters on the offensive line.  They defense has seven starters back but is undersized for the FBS level, especially up front.

UPTE had eight starters back on an offense that put up 385 yards per game last season.  That includes QB Gavin Gardison, who threw for 2,044 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Leading receiver Tyrin Smith is back after 712 receptions for 1,039 yards and 7 touchdowns last year.  Deion Hankins rushed for 701 yards and averaged 5.0 per carry last season and returns.  Four starters and 122 career starts return along the offensive line.

UTEP gave up 27.0 points per game last season and while seven starters return, the Miners lose five of their top seven tacklers from a year ago.  That includes their two best edge rushers in Cal Wallerstedt (95 tackles, 8 sacks) and Jadrian Taylor (9.5 sacks).  They will miss these two while trying to wrangle in Webb of Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks and their opponents combined for at least 56 points in eight of their 11 games last season.  Dana Dimel is 15-5 OVER in conference road games as the coach of UTEP.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-113)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored 6 runs or more in eight of their last 11 games overall as well.  They'll be opposed by the Kansas City Royals, who are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall with five losses by 2 runs or more.

The Mariners have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Logan Gilbert, who is 11-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Jordan Lyles, who is 3-14 with a 6.07 ERA in 24 starts thsi season, including 2-8 with a 6.90 ERA in 13 road starts.  Lyles is 2-5 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 11 career starts against Seattle.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 innings of a 10-8 loss to the Mariners in his lone start against them this season.

The Royals are 3-21 in Lyles' 24 starts this season.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +182

The Washington Nationals have quietly gone 22-11 in their last 331 games overall with 17 wins as underdogs.  That includes wins as +190 and +190 underdogs in their last two games coming in.  The Miami Marlins have no business being this big of a favorite today considering they are 2-7 in their last nine games overall while scoring a total of 11 runs in their last six games overall for an average of 1.8 runs per game.

Jake Irvin comes in pitching well for the Nationals as he fired 6 shutout innings against the Phillies in his last start.  Irvin hs allowed 4 earned runs or fewer in 16 consecutive starts, including 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts.  

Eury Perez has not been sharp of late for the Marlins, going 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 21 innings.  The value on the Nationals is too good to pass up today.  Bet the Nationals Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5

The Cleveland Guardians have been held to 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The Toronto Blue Jays have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  Runs will be hard to come by for both struggling offenses against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs and one homer in 19 innings.  He'll be opposed by Logan Allen, who is 6-6 with a 3.31 ERA in 19 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.85 ERA in nine road starts.  Ryu is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland, while Allen is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA in one career start against Toronto.

The UNDER is 30-14 in Blue Jays last 44 games overall.  Toronto is 11-0 UNDER in its last 11 games vs. poor power teams averaging 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in five meetings between these teams in 2023 with 1, 1, 4 and 7 and 7 combined runs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFLX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 40

No analysis for preseason.

25* NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bills/Bears UNDER 39

No analysis for preseason.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -140

The Philadelphia Phillies have a lot more to play for than the St. Louis Cardinals and a big advantage on the mound tonight.  That's why I think we are getting the Phillies at a great value even at -140 at home tonight.

Christopher Sanchez is one of the more underrated starters in baseball with a 3.36 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Miles Mikolas, who is 6-9 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in 27 starts for the Cardinals this season.  Mikolas has allowed 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings for a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Mets and A's.

St. Louis is 3-15 in Friday games this season.  Bet the Phillies Friday.