20* Texans/Saints CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Houston +3

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +107

After back-to-back losses for the first time since July 31-August 1, which is a span of 24 games, the Washington Nationals get back on track Saturday with a victory in Game 3 over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Gio Gonzalez has been simply dominant this season, going 16-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.161 WHIP over 25 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his last three starts, and 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in two career starts against Philly, both of which have come this season.

Roy Halladay is having a down year for the Phillies, who really have nothing to play for right now. The right-hander is 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA in 2012. Halladay faced the Nationals once this season, giving up five earned runs over six innings of a 5-2 Washington victory.

The Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a loss. Washington is 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The Nationals are 10-1 in Gonzalez's last 11 road starts. The Phillies are 0-5 in Halladay's last 5 starts vs. National League East. These last three trends make for a combined 20-1 system backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Saturday.

25* NFL Preseason GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -3

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +165

The Kansas City Royals are showing great value tonight as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox. Boston (59-66) appears to have packed it in already, losing four straight games coming in.

Kansas City (55-68) continues to fight while making backers a ton of money over the last few weeks. The Royals have won six of their last nine games overall, and they were an underdog in all but three of those contests.

Bruce Chen has pitched well of late, going 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in his last three starts. Jon Lester has struggled all season, going 7-10 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in 25 starts, including 2-8 with a 6.83 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 14 home outings. He has no business being this heavily favored tonight.

Lester is 0-7 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season. Lester is 0-7 (-13.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 0-6 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 this season. These three trends make for a perfect 20-0 system that has not lost in 2012. Plus, Kansas City is a very profitable 12-5 (+14.2 Units) as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season. Roll with the Royals Friday.

15* A's/Rays AL Friday No-Brainer on Oakland +166

The Oakland A's (67-57) are still very much alive in the AL Wildcard race. This team continues to get no respect despite being one of the top teams in the American League. This is a huge series for them against the Tampa Bay Rays, and they are showing awesome value in Game 1 tonight.

The A's actually have the edge on the mound, but that isn't reflected with this line, which is the reason for the value. Jarrod Parker is 8-7 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 21 starts this season for Oakland, while Matt Moore is 10-7 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 24 starts for Tampa.

Moore faced Oakland for the first time in his career earlier this season on May 6th. The left-hander gave up eight earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of a 5-9 home loss to the A's. Tampa Bay is hitting just .226 and scoring 3.8 runs/game at home this season. They certainly should not be this big of a favorite tonight.

Oakland has lost three straight to Tampa Bay, but that just sets them up for one of their best situations. The A's are 8-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent this season. Oakland is 20-7 in its last 27 games as an underdog. Roll with the A's Friday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -117

The Washington Nationals are showing great value as a small road favorite over the Philadelphia Phillies Friday. Washington (77-47) owns the best record in baseball, while Philadelphia (58-67) knows it has no chance of making the postseason.

The Nationals have the edge on the mound in this one behind Edwin Jackson, who is 7-8 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Kyle Kendrick is 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 17 starts and 12 relief appearances, including 1-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in nine home starts.

Kendrick is 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in 13 career starts against Washington. Kendrick is 0-7 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons.

The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 39-14 in its last 53 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Nationals are 52-21 in their last 73 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Phillies are 0-4 in Kendrick's last 4 home starts. Bet the Nationals Friday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -103

Getting the Pittsburgh Pirates at nearly even money at home tonight is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Pittsburgh (67-57) is still very much alive in the NL Central and NL Wildcard races, while Milwaukee (57-66) is not.

Michael Fiers got off to a blazing start this season for the Brewers, but he has really cooled off of late. Fiers is 0-2 with a 15.43 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs over seven innings of work.

Wandy Rodriguez has been at his best at home this season, posting a 3.89 ERA over 14 home starts in 2012. Rodriquez is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee, giving up just three earned runs over 19 1/3 innings.

The Brewers are 1-9 in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 this season. Milwaukee is 1-10 in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 21-6 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Pittsburgh Friday.

15* NFL Thursday Preseason No-Brainer on Jacksonville Jaguars +7

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -106

The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value at basically even money against the Boston Red Sox tonight. Los Angeles (64-60) is making its move to try and make the postseason, while Boston (59-65) has already packed it in.

The Angels have the edge on the mound tonight with C.J. Wilson over Franklin Morales. Wilson is 9-9 with a 3.61 ERA over 26 starts, including 6-4 with a 3.49 ERA in 15 road outings. Morales is 3-3 with a 3.98 ERA as a starter, including 2-1 with a 5.28 ERA in three home starts.

Wilson has never lost to the Red Sox, going 4-0 (5-0 on the money line) with a 1.08 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in five career starts against Boston. Bet the Angels Thursday.

15* Giants/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -101

The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost the first two games of this series to the San Francisco Giants. They'll be looking for revenge tonight while also avoiding the series sweep. The Dodgers now trail the Giants by 1.5 games for the NL West lead, so this is clearly a very important game for them.

Chris Capuano has been an excellent addition to Los Angeles' staff in 2012. The left-hander is 11-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 25 starts this season. He's been untouchable at home, going 5-4 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.106 WHIP over 12 starts.

Matt Cain has not had much success against the Dodgers, going 3-8 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 20 career starts against Los Angeles. Capuano has given up four earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 13-29 in Cains last 42 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 0-4 in Cain's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 7-1 in Capuano's last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last 5 during game 3 of a series. Take the Dodgers Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +250

I know the Houston Astros are out of postseason contention, but they are simply showing too good of value to pass up Wednesday. This is still an NL Central rivalry, and Houston would love nothing more than to put a damper on St. Louis' playoff hopes.

For whatever reason, Bud Norris loves facing the Cardinals, and he has been a thorn in their side over the last few years. Norris is 7-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 12 career starts against St. Louis. The Astros are 9-3 in those 12 contests.

Houston is 15-6 in road games after allowing 7 runs or more 3 straight games since 1997. The Astros are 8-3 in Norris' last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. Houston is 5-1 in Norris' last 6 road starts vs. Cardinals. Roll with the Astros Wednesday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -118

The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the hapless Boston Red Sox. Los Angeles is still within striking distance of an AL Wildcard berth, and it knows it has to make a move now. Boston (59-64) has clearly already packed it in.

The Angels send ace and AL Cy Young contender Jered Weaver to the mound tonight. The right-hander is 15-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.972 WHIP over 22 starts this season. He'll be motivated after his worst start of the year against Tampa Bay last time out, and I look for him to shut down the Red Sox.

The Angels are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 7-0 in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Angels are 8-0 in Weaver's last 8 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance. Los Angeles is 7-0 in Weaver's last 7 road starts. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Angels. Bet Los Angeles Wednesday.

20* Pirates/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -126

The Pittsburgh Pirates (67-55) still have a lot to play for with the NL Central and NL Wildcard races on the line. The San Diego Padres (54-70) are simply playing out their season with nothing to play for the rest of the way.

The Pirates clearly have the edge on the mound tonight with A.J. Burnett. The right-hander has resurrected his career in Pittsburgh, going 15-4 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.186 WHIP over 22 starts this season. The Pirates are 18-4 in those contests.

Jason Marquis is having a terrible year for San Diego. The right-hander is 8-11 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 22 starts this season. It's amazing that he's still in the big leagues with how much he has struggled in recent years.

Burnett is 11-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. Burnett is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Burnett is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

15* Giants/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +145

The San Francisco Giants are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They have one of the most underrated starters in the league taking the ball tonight.

Madison Bumgarner is 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three. The left-hander has posted similar numbers to Clayton Kershaw, who he'll be facing in this one.

The Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. San Francisco is 21-10 in Bumgarner's last 31 starts. The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League West opponents. Los Angeles is 3-9 in its last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Roll with the Giants Monday.

20* Eagles/Pats ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England PK

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on New York -161

The New York Yankees have a huge edge on the mound tonight, and as a result I'll back them in the rubber match of this series with the Boston Red Sox Sunday night. New York is 71-48 this season, while the Red Sox are 58-62 on the year.

Hiroki Kuroda is 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 24 starts this season, 8-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 14 home starts, and 1-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in his last three outings.

Josh Beckett is 5-10 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.310 WHIP in 20 starts, 3-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in nine road starts, and 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in his last three outings. Beckett sports a 5.13 ERA in 30 career starts against Boston.

The Yankees are 14-2 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 this season. The Red Sox are 2-9 in Beckett's last 11 starts. New York is 6-0 in Kuroda's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Bet the Yankees Sunday.

15* Colts/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Indianapolis +4

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

25* American League GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -144

After losing the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays in blowout fashion, the Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated for a win Saturday. I believe they get revenge in Game 3 behind one of the best starters in the league.

C.J. Wilson is 9-9 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 3.08 ERA an 1.243 WHIP in 10 home starts. The left-hander is 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay as well.

Alex Cobb, who is 7-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 15 starts this season, is no match for Wilson and the motivated Angels in this one. Cobb is also 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles.

Wilson is 14-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. The Angels are 8-2 in Wilson's last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Rays are 17-37 in their last 54 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* NFL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs PK

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

20* Giants/Jets Big Apple Beat Down on New York Jets PK

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

20* Raiders/Cardinals NFL Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland +4.5

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -125

The Oakland A's should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Cleveland Indians. Oakland is right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race at 62-55, while Cleveland (54-64) has little to play for the rest of the way.

The A's have a big edge on the mound behind Tom Milone tonight. The left-hander has been dominant at home, going 5-3 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.921 WHIP over 10 starts. Zach McCallister is 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA in four road starts for Cleveland.

The Indians are 8-24 in their last 32 road games. Cleveland is 1-6 in its last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The A's are 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Oakland is 18-5 in its last 23 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Indians are 12-26 in the last 38 meetings in Oakland. Bet the A's Friday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates +145

The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing awesome value tonight as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh is hanging in the NL Central and NL Wildcard races at 65-53 on the season, just ahead of the 64-54 Cardinals.

I believe this is a very evenly-matched game on the mound, and if anything the Pirates have the edge. James McDonald is 10-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.206 WHIP over 23 starts, and Jake Westbrook is 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 23 outings.

The reason I like the Pirates here is the price and the head-to-head numbers between these two. McDonald is 1-1 with a 3.22 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis, while Westbrook is 1-5 with a 5.97 ERA in seven career starts against Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 25-12 in their last 37 vs. National League Central opponents. The Cardinals are 4-11 in their last 15 Friday games. St. Louis is 1-4 in its last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Pirates Friday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +145

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. Neither of these teams has a whole lot to play for, and knowing that this is a pretty evenly matched game on the mound, I certainly like the big dog in this spot.

In fact, if anything I'd give the edge to the Phillies considering how well Vance Worley has pitched on the road. Worley is 4-3 with a 2.59 ERA in nine road starts this season. Yovani Gallardo is 11-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 24 starts, and 6-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 13 home starts.

Worley is 16-2 (+13.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Worley is 10-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Worley is 7-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Phillies Friday.

20* Bengals/Falcons FOX Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +4.5

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason

15* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -133

The Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central division at 64-52 on the season. This is a much better team than it gets credit for, and I have them taking Game 4 of this series against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.

Toronto has lost 13 of 17 to fall to 55-62 on the season and out of the AL Wildcard race. This team is not in a good state of mind right now, and they are still without their best player, Jose Bautista.

I'll gladly fade Aaron Laffey of the Blue Jays. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.423 WHIP as a starter this season, including 1-2 with an 8.81 ERA and 1.775 WHIP in his last three starts.

The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Chicago is 36-17 in its last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 0-5 in Laffey's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the White Sox Thursday.

15* Rangers/Yankees ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Texas +113

After losing the first two games of this series to the New York Yankees, the Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight. I like their chances to get it with the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Scott Feldman is 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA over his last four starts, yielding just two home runs in the process. Freddy Garcia has struggled most of the year for New York, going 4-5 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 12 starts this season.

Garcia has really struggled inside hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, going 2-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.885 WHIP. He has allowed 19 earned runs and 44 base runners over 23 1/3 innings at home in 2012.

Texas is 9-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs over the last 2 seasons. Feldman is 7-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 in his career. Roll with the Rangers Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Oakland A's -115

After getting shut out by the lowly Kansas City Royals yesterday, the Oakland A's are going to come back extra motivated tonight. They are right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race at 61-54, and this game is much more meaningful to them than the Royals (50-65).

Brandon McCarthy is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.650 WHIP in his last three.

Will Smith has been atrocious this season for Kansas City, going 3-4 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in eight starts. He's 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.860 WHIP in three home starts this year as well.

The A's are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series. Oakland is 7-1 in McCarthy's last 8 starts. The A's are 5-0 in McCarthy's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Royals are 4-11 in their last 15 games following a win. Bet the A's Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -104

At 63-52 and in first place in the AL Central by two games, the Chicago White Sox have a lot to play for right now. The same cannot be said for the 55-61 Toronto Blue Jays, who remain without their best player, Jose Bautista.

Gavin Floyd has been respectable this season at 8-9 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts. Ricky Romero has taken a big step back this season for Toronto, going 8-9 with a 5.33 ERA in 24 starts.

In his last start against Toronto on July 7th, Floyd pitched 7 2/3 of shutout ball while allowing just six base runners in a 2-0 Chicago victory.

The White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Chicago is 35-17 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Toronto is 1-8 in Romero's last 9 starts overall. Take the White Sox Wednesday.

20* Nationals/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -119

After getting embarrassed 14-2 at home in Game 1 of this series to the Washington Nationals last night, I have the San Francisco Giants bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 2 Tuesday. The Giants will be extra motivated to revenge that loss.

San Francisco sends arguably its best starter to the mound tonight. Madison Bumgarner is 12-7 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.908 WHIP in 10 home starts. The Giants are 8-2 in those 10 contests in 2012.

The Giants are 7-0 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. San Francisco is 6-0 in Bumgarner's last 6 Tuesday starts. The Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing San Francisco. Bet the Giants Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -110

At 61-53 on the season, the Oakland A's are right in the thick of the Wildcard race. They'll certainly be more motivated for a win tonight than the Kansas City Royals, who are just 49-65 on the year and in last place in the AL Central.

The biggest reason for this play is the huge edge that the A's have on the mound. Jarrod Parker is 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 19 starts, while Jeremy Guthrie is 4-11 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.646 WHIP in 19 starts.

Guthrie is also 1-6 with an 8.87 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in nine home outings. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in eight career starts against Oakland as well.

Guthrie is 0-8 (-8.6 Units) against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 22-7 in its last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the A's Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Yankees AL Tuesday No-Brainer on Texas +134

The Texas Rangers are showing arguably their best value of the season tonight against the New York Yankees. Rarely will you ever get the two-time defending AL champs at this kind of price, and I'm going to take advantage tonight. They'll be very motivated after losing Game 1 of this 4-game set to the Yankees last night.

At 13-6 with a 3.31 ERA in 22 starts this season, Texas starter Matt Harrison is one of the most underrated hurlers in the game. The left-hander is 9-3 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in 13 road starts this year.

In his last two starts against New York, Harrison has allowed just three earned runs over 14 innings for a 1.93 ERA. Hiroki Kuroda has never beaten Texas, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts against the Rangers.

The Rangers are 45-13 in their last 58 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Texas is 45-16 in its last 61 games following a loss. The Rangers are 20-7 in Harrison's last 27 road starts. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series, and 0-5 in Kuroda's last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. Roll with the Rangers Tuesday.

20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Dallas +1

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -121

The Chicago White Sox (62-51) sit two games ahead of the Detroit Tigers for the AL Central division lead. This team continues to exceed expectations, and they are reasonably priced once again tonight against the struggling Toronto Blue Jays (54-60).

Toronto has lost five of its last six, and 11 of 14 overall. This team really misses its best hitter in Jose Bautista, who remains on the DL with a wrist injury. The Blue Jays have scored four or fewer runs in 12 of their last 14, including three or less in 10 of those contests.

Jake Peavy is 9-8 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 4-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 11 road starts. The right-hander has never lost to Toronto, going 2-0 (4-0 on the money line) with a 4.00 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.

The White Sox are 23-10 in their last 33 games as a road favorite. Chicago is 6-1 in Peavy's last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Toronto is 0-5 in Carlos Villanueva's last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the White Sox Monday.

20* Braves/Mets ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta -109

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as a small road favorite over the New York Mets Sunday night. The Braves (66-47) are still in the hunt for the NL East division lead, plus they are in great position to make a Wildcard.

The New York Mets (54-60) have basically played themselves out of postseason contention since the All-Star Break. They have little reason to be motivated right now, and that has shown recently. They've lose the first two games of this series while scoring a combined three runs. The Mets have lost five of six while scoring 3 runs or less in all five losses.

Ben Sheets has been a savior in Atlanta. The veteran right-hander is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in five starts, including 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA in two home outings.

The Braves are 24-8 in their last 32 overall. Atlanta is 5-0 in its last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 0-8 in its last 8 games as a home underdog. Bet the Braves Sunday.

15* AL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +173

The Minnesota Twins are a pesky team that is not going to give in until their season's over. You can always count on them to bring their best effort to the park day in and day out. Minnesota has won five of its last seven games to prove that.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 1-3 in David Price's four career starts against Minnesota. The Twins are hitting .289 and scoring 4.9 runs/game at home this year, so they obviously love Target Field.

Price is just 9-13 (-14.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 13-37 (-25.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse since 1997. Price is 0-5 (-8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. Take the Twins Saturday.

20* NFL Preseason Saturday No-Brainer on Houston Texans +3

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +162

The Milwaukee Brewers have no chance to make the playoffs at 51-59 this season. They should not be this big of a road favorite against the Houston Astros Saturday. They are disinterested and won't be up for this series.

Dallas Kuechel has been at his best at home this season for Houston. He's 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four home starts in 2012. Marco Estrada has been at his worst on the road for Milwaukee. He's 0-3 with a 4.97 ERA in five road starts this year.

The Brewers are 0-5 in Estrada's last 5 road starts. Milwaukee is 0-8 in its last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. These three trends make for an 18-0 system working in Houston's favor. Plus, the Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the Astros Saturday.

25* NFL Preseason Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +3

No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -121

You would never have gotten the Philadelphia Phillies at this kind of price with Roy Halladay on the mound last year. As a result of the Phillies' slow start, this team is showing great value at this time of year, especially tonight.

Even at 5-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.121 WHIP in 15 starts this season, Halladay remains one of the best starters in the game. He pitched seven shutout innings of 3-hit ball his last turn in a 3-0 home victory over Arizona.

Halladay is 3-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in seven career starts against St. Louis. Kyle Lohse is 3-5 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 12 career starts against Philly.

Philly is 9-1 against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season. Halladay is 23-5 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. St. Louis is 0-4 in its last 4 games as a road underdog. Philly is 7-0 in its last 7 games as a home favorite. Bet the Phillies Friday.

15* NL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +165

The Washington Nationals have won the first three games of this series with Houston by exactly one run each. I look for the Nationals to be disinterested tonight as they've already won the series, so they'll suffer a letdown here. Houston will be motivated to avoid the series sweep.

With Lucas Harrell on the mound, the Astros have an excellent chance to win this game at a great price. Harrell is 9-7 with a 3.98 ERA in 22 starts this season, 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA in nine home starts, and 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three outings.

Jordan Zimmerman has never beaten Houston, going 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three career starts against the Astros. In his lone career start against Washington on April 18th, Harrell allowed just one run over 6 2/3 innings for a 1.35 ERA.

Houston is a very profitable 10-5 (+7.6 units) in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The Astros are 5-2 in Harrell's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Astros Thursday.

20* Packers/Chargers ESPN Preseason No-Brainer on Green Bay +1

No Write-up for Preseason Games.

15* AL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +169

The Kansas City Royals have won six of their last nine games overall, proving that they're not going to pack it in. That's impressive considering six of those games came against Texas and Chicago, which are two teams leading their respective divisions.

I look for the Royals to play the role of spoiler against Baltimore tonight behind Will Smith. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in his last three starts. He's 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in four road starts this season.

The Royals are a very profitable 11-3 (+14.5 Units) as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season. Kansas City is 7-2 in its last 9 vs. American League East opponents. Roll with the Royals Thursday.

15* Rockies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +195

Despite their poor record, the Colorado Rockies have shown they aren't going to quit playing. After winning the first two games of this series against Los Angeles while allowing a total of just one run in the process, the Rockies look for the sweep tonight.

At 7-9 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in 21 starts this season, Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley is certainly getting too much respect tonight. Billingsley is 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 10 home starts. The right-hander is 3-7 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.657 WHIP in 14 career starts against Colorado.

Jeff Francis has been tremendous in night games this season. The Rockies are a very profitable 8-2 (+9.2 units) in Francis' 10 night starts in 2012. The left-hander is 5-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 16 career starts against Los Angeles as well.

The Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Colorado is 5-1 in Francis' last 6 road starts. The Rockies are 5-1 in Francis' last 6 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Dodgers are 5-18 in their last 23 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Los Angeles is 7-19 in its last 26 games following a loss. The Dodgers are 17-35 in their last 52 Wednesday games. Los Angeles is 0-5 in its last 5 vs. NL West opponents. Roll with the Rockies Wednesday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates +129

The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing great value as a home underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday. At 62-47 on the season, this team is the real deal with an excellent chance to win the NL Central or an NL Wildcard berth.

Kevin Correia (8-6, 4.49) is slated to get a spot start Wednesday after being removed from the rotation following the acquisition of Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros last month. The right-hander was switched to the bullpen despite going 6-0 with a 3.89 ERA in his last seven starts. He's out to prove he belongs tonight.

The Pirates are 23-7 in their last 30 home games. Pittsburgh is 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 Wednesday games, and 5-0 in Correia's last 5 starts. Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +134

The Philadelphia Phillies hate the Atlanta Braves being NL East rivals. That's why they are not taking this series lightly despite the fact that things have not gone their way this season. The Phillies are showing awesome value as a home underdog in this one.

Kyle Kendrick has posted a 3.91 ERA in eight home starts this season, and a 3.50 ERA in his last three starts overall. Kendrick is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 11 career starts against Atlanta. In his last two starts against the Braves, Kendrick has pitched 12 shutout innings while allowing only eight base runners. He clearly loves facing this team.

The Phillies are 41-14 in their last 55 Wednesday games. Philly is 7-2 in its last 9 home games. Atlanta didn't have a single extra-base hit against Philly last night on a 0-3 loss, and I look for Kendrick to shut down this weak Braves line-up once again tonight. Take the Phillies Wednesday.

20* Angels/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -137

The Los Angeles Angels have a big edge on the mound tonight with C.J. Wilson over Bartolo Colon. Coming off his worst start of the season at Texas, Wilson will be highly motivated to dominate this weak A's line-up Tuesday.

The left-hander is 9-7 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 23 starts this year. He has owned Oakland, going 5-3 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 10 career starts against the A's. In his last start at Oakland on May 22nd, Wilson pitched eight shutout innings of one-hit ball in a 5-0 Angels victory.

Colon is 2-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 11 home starts in 2012. That's pretty poor considering he throws in a pitcher-friendly park. Colon gave up four runs and 12 hits over 6 2/3 innings in his last start against the Angels, which resulted in a 4-0 victory for Los Angeles on May 15th.

Wilson is 21-5 (+13.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 6-0 in Wilson's last 6 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Los Angeles is 5-1 in its last 6 meetings in Oakland. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Red Sox AL Tuesday No-Brainer on OVER 9.5

The Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox have two of the best line-ups in baseball. They should have no problem combining to score double-digit runs to push this one OVER the number Tuesday.

Ryan Dempster has to hate the switch to the American League. In his first start with Texas on August 2nd, Dempster allowed eight earned runs and 12 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 15-9 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. He'll get rocked by Boston tonight, too.

Jon Lester is simply having an awful year, and he's showed no signs of turning it around. The left-hander is 5-9 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 22 starts, 2-7 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in 13 home starts, and 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three outings.

Dempster is 10-1 to the OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 13-4-3 in Rangers last 20 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 37-13-5 in Red Sox last 55 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The OVER is 5-0 in Lester's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The OVER is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings in Boston. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -116

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to lack the respect they deserve at this point of the season despite their 62-46 record. They are in excellent position to either win the NL West or an NL Wildcard spot. This team is the real deal, and they've learned from last season's second-half collapse.

After three straight losses while scoring a combined four runs in the process, Arizona (55-54) realizes its chances of making the postseason are pretty slim right now. The Pirates have a big edge on the mound in this one, which is the main reason for this pick.

Jeff Karstens is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 10 starts this year. He has been untouchable at home, going 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.857 WHIP over three starts. Pat Corbin is 3-3 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in six starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in four road starts.

Karstens is 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in four career starts against Arizona. The Pirates are 23-5 in their last 28 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Pittsburgh is 24-6 in its last 30 games as a favorite. The Pirates are 4-0 in Karstens' last 4 starts as a favorite. Roll with Pittsburgh Tuesday.

25* AL Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Yankees +1.5 (-128)

The New York Yankees are showing awesome value on the run line tonight against the Detroit Tigers. I'll take the extra run at a great price on the team with the best record in baseball. New York is 63-44 on the season.

Ivan Nova has been at his best on the road this year for the Yankees. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 12 road starts this season, and the Yankees are 10-2 in those contests.

Justin Verlander is one of the league's best, but he has struggled of late. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA over his last two starts, yielding nine runs, seven earned, and 20 base runners over 12 innings. Verlander is 5-4 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 15 career starts against New York.

This play falls into a system that is 41-10 (80.4%) against the run line since 1997. It tells us to bet on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (NY YANKEES) - after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 8 runs or more. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.

15* Cardinals/Saints NFL Preseason No-Brainer on Arizona +3

No Write-ups for preseason NFL

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -228

Rarely will I ever lay this much juice, but the Washington Nationals are worth it Sunday behind ace Stephen Strasburg. Washington (64-43) continues to win without any signs of slowing down. Miami (49-59) has little to play for at this point of the season and it will have a hard time getting motivated the rest of the way.

Strasburg is 11-5 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 21 starts this season with a ridiculous 154 strikeouts in 121 1/3 innings. The flame-throwing right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in six career starts against Miami.

He'll be up against Ricky Nolasco, who is 8-10 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 21 starts this year. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.776 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

The Marlins are 0-6 in Nolasco's last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Miami is 0-4 in Nolasco's last 4 starts overall. The Nationals are 5-0 in Strasburg's last 5 Sunday starts. Take this combined 15-0 system straight to the bank today. Bet the Nationals Sunday.

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +130

The New York Mets should not be an underdog today to the San Diego Padres. San Diego is just 45-63 on the season and they should never be a favorite.

The Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. Take the Mets Saturday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles +130

The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value Saturday. They'll crush the Tampa Bay Rays due to their edge on the mound.

Wei-Yin Chen is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He's 9-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 21 starts this year.

The Orioles are 4-1 in Chens last 5 starts as an underdog. Bet the Orioles Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Sleeper on Houston Astros +190

The Houston Astros are showing such great value this time of year because of their tough start. No team gets motivated to face them, so it's a huge letdown spot for the opposing team.

Lucas Harrell has been great of late, going 1-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed just four earned runs over 19 2/3 innings over this span.

Atlanta is just 32-31 (-33.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. The Braves are also 40-50 (-25.6 Units) against the money line after allowing 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Astros Saturday.

15* AL Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto Blue Jays +140

The Toronto Blue Jays are showing great value as an underdog to the Oakland A's. Oakland is way overvalued right now with the run they've been on, and now is the time to fade.

The Blue Jays are 12-3 in Brett Cecil's last 15 Friday starts. The A's are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite, and should not be favored tonight. Take the Blue Jays Friday.

25* AL Non-Divisonal GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -139

The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value Friday as a small road favorite over the Chicago White Sox. They have a huge edge on the mound in this one, and as a result I'll back them.

Zach Greinke is 9-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Chicago's Philip Humber is 5-5 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 15 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in seven home starts.

The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. Los Angeles is 12-3 in its last 15 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chicago is 0-7 in Humber's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Angels Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +160

The Baltimore Orioles are showing great value tonight as a big underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays. Matt Moore has not been as dominant as everyone said he would be this season, yet he's still overrated right now.

Moore is 7-7 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.378 WHIP through 20 starts, putting him at the middle of the pack in terms of starting pitchers. He should not be this heavily favored Friday against a Baltimore (55-50) team that has been underrated all year.

The Orioles are 6-1 in Hunters last 7 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. Baltimore is 4-1 in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 11-3 in their last 14 games following an off day, and 7-2 in their last 9 road games. The Rays are 2-9 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Roll with the Orioles Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -142

This is a huge motivational and mound mismatch tonight working in St. Louis' favor. The Cardinals have played themselves right back into the NL Central and NL Wildcard races by winning nine of their last 12 games overall.

Colorado (37-65) has nothing to play for the rest of the way. The Rockies have showed signs of packing it in recently while losing five straight, and 11 of their last 13 games overall. I would not back this team with my money right now.

Lance Lynn is one of the most underrated starters in the game. The right-hander is 13-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in 20 starts this season. He faced Colorado on July 5th, pitching six shutout innings of a 6-2 Cardinals victory.

Alex White has struggled all season for the Rockies. He is 2-6 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.664 WHIP in 10 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 9.57 ERA and 2.708 WHIP in his last three. He'll be up against a St. Louis line-up that has scored a combined 20 runs over the last two days.

The Cardinals are 13-1 in Lynn's last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Colorado is 0-7 in home games after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more runs over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is 5-0 in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. National League Central. Colorado is 0-4 in White's last 4 starts. These five trends make for a 36-1 system backing St. Louis. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +166

The Miami Marlins are finally starting to show some signs of life. They have won three of their last five games overall, including a 4-2 victory over Atlanta yesterday. The price is right on Miami Thursday considering they have the edge on the mound in this one.

The Marlins received Nathan Eovaldi from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Hanley Ramirez trade. He's going to be a good one, and he has pitched pretty well this year. Eovaldi sports a 3.94 ERA in 11 starts, including a 3.07 ERA in his last three. In his last two starts, the right-hander has allowed two earned runs over 9 2/3 innings.

Mike Minor has struggled most of the season for Atlanta. The left-hander is 6-7 with a 5.18 ERA, giving up a whopping 22 homers and 42 walks over 113 innings. Eovaldi gave up one earned run over six innings in a 2-1 victory at Atlanta in his lone career start against the Braves. Minor is 1-2 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in six career starts against Miami.

The Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series. Atlanta is 1-4 in Minor's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Roll with the Marlins Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Washington Nationals -109

After back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia Phillies, I have the Washington Nationals bouncing back with a victory at home tonight. Philly traded away arguably its two best hitters in Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, leaving an already weak line-up even weaker. The Phillies will make for good fade material the rest of the way.

Ross Detwiler has been every bit as good as Cole Hamels this season. Detwiler is 5-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 15 starts and six relief appearances this year, including 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last three starts.

Hamels is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 20 starts, and 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA in his last two. He has given up 10 runs, 8 earned, 23 base runners and 4 homers over 12 2/3 innings in back-to-back losses to Atlanta and San Francisco.

Detwiler is 9-1 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 0-6 in Hamels' last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-5 in Hamels' last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 0-4 in Hamels' last 4 starts vs. National League East. These four trends make for a 24-1 system backing Washington. Take the Nationals Thursday.

20* Tigers/Red Sox ESPN No-Brainer on Boston Red Sox -104

I have now cashed in the Boston Red Sox for four straight days during their 4-game winning streak. They took two out of three over the weekend from the New York Yankees, giving them the series win they needed to get some confidence. Boston has carried that momentum into this series with Detroit, winning the first two.

I believe they cap off the series sweep tonight behind Aaron Cook. The veteran right-hander has been a solid addition to the rotation, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in seven starts this season. He has only given up 41 hits and four walks over 40 innings pitched.

Rick Porcello has struggled this season for Detroit, posting a 4.56 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in 20 starts. He has allowed 147 hits and 29 walks in 116 1/3 innings pitched. Porcello has never beaten Boston, going 0-2 (0-3 on the money line) with a 10.80 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in three career starts against the Red Sox.

The Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 18-6 in its last 24 vs. American League Central, and 9-4 in its last 13 during game 3 of a series. The Tigers are 24-51 in the last 75 meetings, including 16-40 in their last 56 meetings in Boston. Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* DBacks/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -113

After losing Game 1 of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks, I have the Los Angeles Dodgers bouncing back with a victory in Game 2 tonight behind one of the most underrated starters in the game.

Chris Capuano is 10-6 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in 21 starts this season for the Dodgers. The left-hander has been virtually untouchable at home, going 5-2 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.035 WHIP through 10 home starts in 2012.

The Diamondbacks are 28-59 in their last 87 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 58-28 in its last 86 games as a favorite. The Dodgers are 6-1 in Capuano's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +120

I have a good pulse on the Boston Red Sox right now. I have taken them the last three days with success, including twice as +150 & +176 dogs. Boston won two out of three against the Yankees over the weekend, and that series victory gives them a lot of confidence going forward.

They carried that momentum into a 7-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of this series Monday. Boston (52-51) realizes that now is the time it needs to make a push if it wants to make the postseason. The Red Sox trail several teams by only a few games for a Wildcard spot in the AL, including Detroit.

With all of the bashing and trade talk that Boston starter Josh Beckett has gone through lately, there's no question he's going to be motivated tonight to beat Justin Verlander and the Tigers. Beckett has pitched better than the numbers indicate as he sports a 1.204 WHIP while giving up just three homers in 57 1/3 innings over nine home starts this year.

Verlander gave up five earned runs and 11 base runners over 6 innings of a 3-6 loss at Boston on May 29th in his last start against the Red Sox.

The Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Detroit is 0-4 in its last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 vs. American League Central. Boston is 44-19 in Beckett's last 63 starts during game 2 of a series, and 8-1 in Beckett's last 9 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Roll with the Red Sox Tuesday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -139

The Washington Nationals should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight with ace Stephen Strasburg on the mound. Washington has won eight of its last nine games overall to remain in first place in the NL East with no signs of slowing down.

The Philadelphia Phillies are clearly sellers right now before the trade deadline as they are 45-57 on the season with little to play for the rest of the way. Names like tonight's starter Cliff Lee, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino have been thrown around. It definitely has to be uncomfortable in the Phillies clubhouse right now, and that has shown on the field as Philly has lost three straight while scoring a combined four runs in the process.

Strasburg is 11-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 20 starts this season while striking out 151 batters in 117 1/3 innings. Lee is 1-6 with a 3.95 ERA in 17 starts this season for the Phillies. The Nationals are 2-0 in Strasburg's two career starts against Philly as the right-hander has allowed four earned runs and six base runners over 10 1/3 innings.

The Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-4 in their last 4 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 games following an off day, and 0-5 in Lee's last 5 starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. These five trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

20* Rays/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -126

The Tampa Bay Rays are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Oakland A's tonight. They send ace David Price to the mound to cool off the Oakland A's, who had won 16 of 18 before dropping two of their last four. Tampa trails Oakland in the Wildcard race by 2.5 games, so they will certainly be motivated for this series.

Price has posted Cy Young-worthy numbers this season. The left-hander is 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 20 starts this year with 130 strikeouts over 133 innings. Price is 7-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his last nine starts against AL opponents, and he certainly had everything going in his last matchup with the A's. The three-time All-Star fanned a season-high 12 and allowed one run over eight innings in a 7-2 home victory May 4.

The Rays are 22-6 in Price's last 28 starts as a road favorite. Tampa is 4-0 in Price's last 4 road starts overall. The A's are 2-7 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Bet Tampa Bay Monday.

15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -110

The Boston Red Sox picked up a signature win last night that could really get them going. Boston gave up a 2-0 lead to the Yankees late, only to win 3-2 in extra innings to earn a 2-1 series victory over their hated AL East rivals. Boston (51-51) got back to .500 and is still squarely in the Wildcard race.

Now, they face a Detroit team that sits three games ahead of them in that race, so the Red Sox certainly have plenty of reason to be motivated tonight. Clay Buchholz has pitched very well of late, giving up just two earned runs and 14 base runners over 15 innings in back-to-back victories over the Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers.

Max Scherzer sports a 4.74 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in 12 road starts this season for Detroit. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.091 WHIP in five career starts against Boston, while Buchholz is 1-1 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit. In three career home starts against the Tigers, Buchholz has allowed just three earned runs over 22 innings for a miniscule 1.23 ERA.

The Red Sox are 12-1 in Buchholz's last 13 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150, cashing 92% of the time. The Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Boston is 10-2 in Buchholz's last 12 night starts. Roll with the Red Sox Monday.

15* AL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +161

The Baltimore Orioles are showing great value tonight against the New York Yankees. Baltimore remains in the Wildcard race with a 53-49 record on the season, so it has plenty to play for. You would think the Yankees had a big edge on the mound with this ridiculous line, but it's actually the complete opposite.

Baltimore starter Miguel Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA in four starts and three relief appearances this year. He has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in two starts while allowing just three earned runs over 13 2/3 innings.

Freddy Garcia is 2-4 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.580 WHIP as a starter this season in nine outings for New York. He's 1-2 with a 10.21 ERA and 2.107 WHIP in three home starts this year. In his last two starts against Baltimore, Garcia has given up 10 earned runs, three homers and 16 base runners over 7 1/3 innings, which equates to a 12.28 ERA.

The Orioles are 9-3 after a win by 4 runs or more this season. Baltimore is 5-1 in its last 6 road games. The Orioles are 9-3 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 2-5 in Garcia's last 7 starts as a favorite. Take the Orioles Monday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Boston +150

The Boston Red Sox have struggled for most of the season. They are extremely motivated to get on a run and get back into the Wildcard race. That's especially the case tonight as Boston has a chance to take this series from its hated rival, the New York Yankees.

Felix Doubront has arguably been Boston's best starter this season. The left-hander is 10-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 19 starts this year, including 5-2 with a 3.83 ERA in nine road starts.

Doubront is 1-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees, allowing four earned runs and 12 base runners over 12 1/3 innings. Kuroda is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in two career starts against Boston, yielding eight earned runs and 18 base runners over 12 2/3 innings.

The Red Sox are 5-0 in Doubront's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Boston is 7-2 in Doubront's last 9 road starts. The Red Sox are 11-4 in their last 15 meetings in New York. Bet Boston Sunday.

15* Rays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay +165

The Tampa Bay Rays are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the Los Angeles Angels tonight. Rookie Matt Moore is one of the best young starters in the game, and he'll shut down these Angels tonight.

Moore is 6-7 with a 4.23 ERA in 19 starts this season, striking out 106 batters in 112 2/3 innings. He'll be up against C.J. Wilson, who is 0-1 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in his last three starts. Wilson has given up 10 runs over 12 innings while losing each of his last two starts against Tampa Bay.

The Rays are 9-2 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better this season. Tampa is a very profitable 9-4 (+8.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. The Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings with the Angels. Roll with Tampa Bay Saturday.

15* Red Sox/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on Boston +176

The Boston Red Sox are showing great value today against the New York Yankees. Coming off his worst start of the season, there's no question Jon Lester will be motivated to shut down his hated rival in this one.

Lester is 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in eight road starts this year, clearly pitching his best away from home. He's 8-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 18 career starts against New York. C.C. Sabathia is 7-11 with a 4.59 ERA in 22 career starts against Boston.

The Red Sox are 41-23 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 10-3 in its last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Red Sox are 5-1 in Lester's last 6 starts as a road underdog. Take Boston Saturday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -132

Following back-to-back losses, the Detroit Tigers are very motivated for a victory Saturday in Game 2 of this series with the Toronto Blue Jays. They traded for Anibal Sanchez from the Miami Marlins, and he'll make his Tigers debut in this one.

Sanchez is 5-7 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 10 road starts. He'll be up against Toronto's Henderson Alvarez, who is 6-7 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in 19 starts, including 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in his last three.

The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are 1-7 in Alvarez's last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Toronto is 1-5 in Alvarez's last 6 home starts. Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* Mets/Diamondbacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on New York +130

The New York Mets put an end to their six-game losing streak last night behind an excellent performance from rookie phenom Matt Harvey. With that weight off their shoulders, I look for the Mets to take Game 2 of this series over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight behind Jon Niese.

The left-hander is one of the most underrated starters in the game. Niese is 7-4 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in nine road outings. He'll be up against Josh Collmenter, who is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in six home starts this year.

Arizona is 1-10 in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Mets are 41-20 in their last 61 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. New York is 8-2 in Niese's last 10 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in Collmenter's last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Roll with the Mets Friday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +122

The Washington Nationals (59-39) should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers (44-54) tonight. Washington has won six straight while allowing exactly two runs in each victory and outscoring the opposition 40-12 in the process.

Milwaukee is simply deflated right now as it has lost seven straight games heading into this one. Five of those losses came by exactly one run, mostly due to blown leads by the bullpen. It's hard for a team to recover from a stretch like this, especially since the Brewers realize they've likely played themselves out of playoff contention.

Washington's Ross Detwiler is one of the most underrated starts in the league. He is 5-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 14 starts and six relief appearances this year, including 1-0 with a miniscule 0.64 ERA in his last two starts, allowing one earned run over 14 innings.

The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Nationals are 7-0 in Detwiler's last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Washington is 4-0 in Detwiler's last 4 starts overall. The Nationals are 5-0 in Detwiler's last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Brewers are 0-8 in their last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These six trends make for a perfect 37-0 system backing Washington. Take the Nationals Friday.

20* AL DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Tigers +109

The Detroit Tigers are showing great value tonight as a small underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Tigers have won 14 of their last 18 games overall, but after losing two of three last series against Cleveland, they'll be motivated to get back in the win column tonight.

Rick Porcello is 7-5 with a 4.40 ERA in 19 starts this season, and 4-2 with a 4.02 ERA in eight road starts. He gave up just one earned run over 8 innings in a 7-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox in his last start on July 21st.

The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays. Porcello will be up against a Toronto team that is still without its best player, Jose Bautista.

Porcello is 8-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Detroit is 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 starts. The Tigers are 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts as an underdog. These four trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing Detroit. Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -162

Rarely do I ever lay this heavy of juice, but the Detroit Tigers are worth it tonight. 2011 AL Cy Young and AL MVP winner Justin Verlander gets the ball and he's worth every penny against the Cleveland Indians tonight. The Tigers have won 14 of 17 and they'll continue playing their best baseball of the season.

Verlander is having yet another Cy Young-worthy season on the mound. The right-hander is 11-5 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.922 WHIP over 20 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.640 WHIP in his last three starts.

While Zach McAllister has been pretty solid for the Indians, going 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in nine starts, he's clearly no Verlander.

Verlander is 21-3 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Detroit is 7-0 in its last 7 Thursday games. The Indians are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. These four trends make for a 45-4 system backing Detroit. Bet the Tigers Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rays/Orioles UNDER 8.5

I fully expect a pitcher's duel tonight between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. Two superb starters will be going at it in Tampa's David Price and Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez. Both teams have been struggling at the plate, and that continues tonight.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 games overall with a combined score of 7 runs or less in all five. The UNDER is 6-1 in the Orioles last 7 games overall with a combined score of 7 runs or fewer in six of seven. Tampa has scored 4 or fewer runs in seven of its last nine, while Baltimore has scored 4 of less in seven of eight.

Price is 13-4 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The hard-throwing left-hander has gone 5-0 with a 1.91 ERA while striking out 42 in 42 1/3 innings and holding opponents to a .189 average in his last six starts.

Miguel Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in three starts and three relief appearances. He's much better than he gets credit for.

Also, Price is 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 10 career starts against Baltimore. He has allowed one earned runs over 14 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Rays last 5 games overall and 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Baltimore. The UNDER is 5-1 in Price's last 6 starts vs. Orioles. The UNDER is 5-0 in Rays last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These five trends make for a 25-2 system backing the UNDER. Plus, the UNDER is 13-3 in Orioles last 16 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Dodgers/Cards NL Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +120

Any time you can get 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw as an underdog, you should take advantage. That's especially the case considering how well the Dodgers are playing right now. Los Angeles (53-44) has won five straight while scoring five or more runs in each victory.

Kershaw is 7-5 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.055 WHIP while striking out 132 batters in 134 2/3 innings over 20 starts this year. The left-hander is 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 10 career starts against St. Louis.

Adam Wainwright is 7-10 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in 19 starts this season for St. Louis, including 4-5 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.433 WHIP in 10 home starts.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 39-17 in Kershaw's last 56 starts overall. The Cardinals are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. St. Louis is 7-21 in its last 28 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 1-9 in Wainwright's last 10 starts with 5 days of rest. St. Louis is 0-4 in Wainwright's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +103

The Washington Nationals are showing solid value as a small underdog to the New York Mets tonight. At 56-39 on the season and with three straight wins, the Nationals have showed no signs of slowing down. The Mets, meanwhile, have lost four straight and 10 of 11 overall.

Gio Gonzalez is having a tremendous season, going 12-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 19 starts this season. After giving up six earned runs over 3 1/3 innings against the Mets in his last start against them on July 19th, he'll be very motivated to get revenge tonight.

R.A. Dickey is having a solid year as well, but he's finally starting to come back down to reality. Dickey has posted a 6.05 ERA and 1.707 WHIP over his last three starts. He beat Gonzalez in that July 19th game, but gave up four runs and 11 base runners in the process.

The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Washington is 7-1 in Gonzalez's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Nationals are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings in New York. These six trends make for a 44-4 system backing Washington. Roll with the Nationals Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -120

The Detroit Tigers are absolutely rolling right now. They have won five straight and 13 of 15 to climb into first place in the AL Central division. I'll continue backing them at a great price tonight over the struggling Cleveland Indians, who have lost four of five.

Doug Fister is clearly the better starter in this one. The right-hander is 4-6 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three. Fister is 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in nine career starts against Cleveland.

Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled all season for Cleveland. The right-hander is 8-9 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 19 starts, including 0-2 with a 14.63 ERA and 2.875 WHIP in his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs, three homers and 23 base runners over 8 innings. Jimenez is 4-5 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in nine career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Detroit is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. The Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Cleveland is 1-4 in Jimenez's last 5 starts. Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +132

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be this big of an underdog to the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday. At 49-47 on the season, the Rays realize they need to start making a push if they want to get back to the postseason with a Wildcard berth.

Jeremy Hellickson is having another solid season at 4-6 with a 3.54 ERA on the year. He'll be up against Wei-Yin Chen, who is 8-5 with a 3.80 ERA on the season, and 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts.

Hellickson is 4-2 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore. In his lone career start against Tampa, Chen gave up five earned runs and nine base runners over 5 2/3 innings of a 0-5 loss to the Rays on June 1st.

The Rays are a very profitable 8-3 (+8.3 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. The Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series. Baltimore is 6-16 in their last 22 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take the Rays Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on A's/Blue Jays UNDER 9.5

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high tonight in this game between the Oakland A's and Toronto Blue Jays. Oakland has one of the best staffs in baseball, but it doesn't score many runs. Toronto remains without its best player in Jose Bautista, who is on the DL.

The A's are hitting just .228 and scoring 3.8 runs/game this season. The UNDER is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall as the A's and their opponents have combined for 9 runs or less in all six contests.

Travis Blackley is 2-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in eight starts this season for Oakland. While Brett Cecil (2-2, 6.34 ERA) has struggled this year for Toronto, he'll be up against a team he has owned tonight. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in four career starts against Toronto.

The UNDER is 21-8 in A's last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Blackley's last 5 starts as an underdog. The UNDER is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-0 in Blue Jays last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. These last three trends make for an 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in his game Tuesday.

20* Red Sox/Rangers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on OVER 10 (-121)

I fully expect a slugfest tonight in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. The Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers feature two of the most potent line-ups in baseball, and I like both Felix Doubront and Scott Feldman to get rocked in this one.

Feldman is 3-6 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 10 starts and six relief appearances this year. The right-hander is 2-6 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in his 10 starts. In his lone career start against Boston, Feldman gave up 12 runs, 6 earned, and 13 base runners over 2 2/3 innings of a 17-19 loss.

Doubront has a very fortunate 10-4 record despite posting a 4.24 ERA and 1.363 WHIP over 18 starts in 2012 for the Red Sox. The left-hander has faced Texas before, giving up 4 runs, 2 earned, and nine base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 4-8 loss to the Rangers.

Both teams are averaging 5.0 runs/game this year, so with two below-average starters going, I see each team surpassing its season average in this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in Doubront's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Doubront's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-0 in Doubront's last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 3-0-2 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends make for a 17-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Rangers/Angels ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8 (-115)

The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels should easily combine to score nine-plus runs tonight. These are two of the best line-ups in baseball, and both Matt Harrison and Dan Haren are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Harrison is having a solid season at 12-4 with a 2.87 ERA, but this is certainly one team he struggles against. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA in six career starts against Los Angeles.

Haren is 6-8 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 9.98 ERA and 1.957 WHIP in his last three starts. The right-hander is 4-9 with a 4.25 ERA in 18 career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 4-0 in Haren's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in Haren's last 6 starts overall. The OVER is 3-0-1 in Haren's last 4 starts vs. Rangers. These three trends make for a 12-1 (92%) System backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +130

Any time the Kansas City Royals are this heavy of a favorite, I'm certainly going to look into fading them. That's especially the case Sunday considering they will be sending one of the worst starters in the league to the mound to take on the Minnesota Twins.

Jeremy Guthrie is 3-8 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.762 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 9.59 ERA and 1.934 WHIP in seven home starts. While Sam Deduno has posted a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season for the Twins, one of those starts came at Texas, which has arguably the best line-up in baseball.

The Twins are 15-8 (+14.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. Minnesota is 13-9 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season. The Royals are 2-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season. Kansas City is 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win. Take the Twins Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -116

The Pittsburgh Pirates have learned from their second-half collapse last season. They are not going to let it happen again, and I believe they go on to win the NL Central this year. Pittsburgh is 53-40 on the season after having won four straight coming in.

Miami has lost four straight, scoring a combined seven runs (1.8/game) in the process. The Marlins are without arguably their two best players in Giancarlo Stanton and Hanley Ramirez, making matters worse for their offense.

Jeff Karstens is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in seven starts this season for Pittsburgh, including 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in two home starts. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in his lone career start against Miami.

The Pirates are an impressive 21-4 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Pittsburgh is 23-5 in their last 28 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Pirates are 23-6 in their last 27 home games overall. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Miami is 1-7 in Anibal Sanchez's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Pirates Sunday.

25* AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago White Sox -116

The Chicago White Sox are showing their best value of the season Saturday as just a small road favorite over the Detroit Tigers. Leading Detroit by just a half-game for the AL Central lead after losing to Justin Verlander yesterday, the Sox will be very determined to stay in 1st place.

Once again, Chris Sale is not getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers. At 11-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 16 starts this season, Sale is a legitimate AL Cy Young contender. The Sox clearly have a huge edge on the mound in this one.

Rick Porcello is 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 18 starts this season for Detroit, including 2-3 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.608 WHIP in 10 home starts. The right-hander is also 4-4 with a 5.50 ERA in nine career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox are 8-0 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take this 15-0 system backing Chicago straight to the bank today. Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -135

The Los Angeles Angels should be a heavier home favorite tonight over the Texas Rangers with ace Jered Weaver on the mound. Los Angeles trails Texas by 6 games in the AL West, so this is easily its biggest series of the season and a Game 1 victory is a must.

Weaver is 11-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 6-0 with a miniscule 0.58 ERA and 0.557 WHIP in seven home starts. He'll be up against Derek Holland, who is 6-4 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 13 starts this season.

The Angels are a perfect 7-0 in Weaver's 7 home starts this season. Los Angeles is 11-0 in Weaver's last 11 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rangers are 1-10 in Holland's last 11 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Angels Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +137

The Minnesota Twins are showing great value tonight against the lowly Kansas City Royals. Any time the Royals are this big of a favorite, it's always a good idea to look to fade them.

I know Nick Blackburn has struggled this season for the Twins, but this is one team that he likes facing. The right-hander went 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Rochester, winning his last two in impressive fashion. Blackburn is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts against Kansas City.

Luke Hochevar should never be this big of a favorite against any team. The right-hander is 6-8 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 18 starts this season for the Royals, including 1-4 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in eight home starts. Hochevar is 4-4 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in 12 career starts against Minnesota.

The Royals are 0-7 in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season. The Twins are a very profitable 14-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. Minnesota is 7-1 in Blackburn's last 8 starts, including 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Royals are 0-5 in Hochevar's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with Minnesota Friday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -142

The Washington Nationals should be a much bigger home favorite over the Atlanta Braves tonight. I'll take Stephen Strasburg at this kind of price at home almost every single time.

Strasburg is 10-4 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.105 WHIP with 135 strikeouts in 105 innings over 18 starts this year. He'll be up against Tommy Hanson, who is 10-5 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 19 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in his last three.

The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss. Washington is 7-1 in Strasburg's last 8 starts vs. National League East. The Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Braves. These three trends make for a 22-3 (88%) system backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Friday.

20* Astros/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +143

The Houston Astros have lost the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres. Motivated to avoid the sweep, I'll back the Astros at a great price tonight.

Lucas Harrell has been dominant of late, going 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last three starts. That includes a complete game shutout victory over these same Padres on 6/27 as the Astros won 1-0.

At 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 19 starts this season, Edinson Volquez is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. In his last two starts against Houston, Volquez has allowed 7 earned runs and 18 base runners over 9 innings.

The Astros are 46-25 after a game where they committed 3 or more errors since 1997. The Padres are 2-10 in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. San Diego is 5-17 in home games after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Astros Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday Mound Mismatch on Tampa Bay Rays +100

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be an underdog at home to the Cleveland Indians tonight considering the massive edge they have on the mound in this one. Jeremy Hellickson is clearly a better starter than Cleveland's Justin Masterson, and the numbers prove it.

Hellickson is 3-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 home starts. Masterson is 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA in 19 starts this year, including 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA in eight road outings.

Hellickson is 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two career starts against Cleveland, allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings. Masterson is 1-6 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.858 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay, and his teams are 1-7 in those eight contests.

Cleveland is 1-10 in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders this season. The Indians are 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Cleveland is 10-23 in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rays are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Indians are 3-11 in the last 14 meetings in Tampa Bay, and 0-5 in Masterson's last 5 starts vs. Rays. Bet Tampa Bay Wednesday.

20* Rangers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -114

This is a great price to back the AL West-leading Texas Rangers (54-35) tonight. I know Roy Oswalt is off to a shaky start for Texas, but he allowed just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-3 win over the Minnesota Twins last time out, and he appears to be back on track.

Oswalt will be up against an Oakland team that is scoring just 3.9 runs/game this season. The Rangers are scoring 5.1 runs/game this year, and they'll be licking their chops at an opportunity to face Bartolo Colon. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 4.47 ERA at home this season.

The Rangers are 45-16 in their last 61 during game 1 of a series. Texas is 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Texas is 47-22 in their last 69 vs. AL West foes. The Rangers are 17-7 in their last 24 meetings with Oakland. Bet Texas Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -115

The Miami Marlins (43-46) should be a much heavier favorite against the Chicago Cubs (36-52) tonight. I'll gladly side with them at this price against one of the worst teams in baseball Tuesday.

Anibal Sanchez has been pretty solid this season with a 4.12 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 17 starts. Travis Wood has also been good for the Cubs, but he's only had 10 starts and it's only a matter of time before his ERA (3.05) comes back to reality.

Sanchez has been at his best on the road this year, going 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in eight starts away from home. In his last start against the Cubs, Sanchez allowed just two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings to get the win in a 6-3 Marlins victory.

The Marlins are 9-0 in Sanchez's last 9 starts with 8 or more days of rest. Miami is 4-0 in Sanchez's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Miami is 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with the Cubs. These five trends make for a perfect 26-0 system backing Miami. Roll with the Marlins Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +145

I was on the Diamondbacks +123 last night as they put an end to Cincinnati's six-game winning streak. I'll back Arizona tonight at an even better price this time around. The Reds are without Joey Votto for 3-4 weeks, and he's simply irreplaceable.

Trevor Bauer is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He has opened 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts, which isn't great, but he'll have an edge considering the Reds have never seen him before. His nerves should certainly have calmed by now, and that was evident as he pitched six shutout innings to earn the win in a 7-1 victory over the L.A. Dodgers on July 8th in his last outing.

There's no question that Johnny Cueto is one of the best starters in baseball. But without Votto in the line-up, he's not going to get much run support in this one. Cueto is also just 3-5 with a 3.38 ERA in night games this season, and he's getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.

The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Arizona is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Cincinnati. They realize they need to make a push right now if they are to catch the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West standings. Take the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +123

The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a 3-game sweep over the weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals. After sweeping their biggest rivals in all of baseball, the Reds are in for a huge letdown in Game 1 of this series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona comes in the more motivated team after getting swept by the Chicago Cubs over the weekend. Now they send one of the most underrated starters in the game to the mound. Wade Miley is 9-5 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in 14 starts and three relief appearances in 2012.

Bronson Arroyo is 4-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 starts this season. He's winless at home, going 0-1 with a 3.71 ERA in seven starts. Arroyo sports a 4.07 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Diamondbacks as well.

The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in Miley's last 20 starts overall. The Reds are 3-7 in Arroyo's last 10 starts during game 1 of a series. Arizona is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -122

The Philadelphia Phillies should be a much bigger favorite Sunday considering the massive edge they have on the mound. Cole Hamels and Drew Pomeranz aren't even in the same class, but this line would indicate that they are.

Hamels remains one of the best starters in baseball, going 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 17 starts this season. Pomeranz is 1-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in seven starts, and he has been simply lucky to have that low of an ERA with an inflated WHIP. Pomeranz was terrible last year, and his numbers will balloon as the season goes on.

The Phillies are 16-3 in Hamels' last 19 starts on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. Philly is 7-2 in Hamels' last nine road starts overall, including 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite. The Phillies are 55-23 in Hamels' last 78 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 36-77 in their last 113 games as an underdog. Bet the Phillies Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Nationals -136

The Washington Nationals should be favored more heavily Sunday considering the advantage they have on the rubber with Stephen Strasburg over Ricky Nolasco and the Miami Marlins.

Strasburg is 9-4 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He has a ridiculous 128 strikeouts in 99 innings, and he's 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in five career starts against Miami.

Nolasco sports a 4.35 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in 17 starts this season, and he's 3-4 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in nine home starts. He has posted a 3.92 ERA in 14 career starts against the Nationals, so Washington is certainly familiar with him.

Washington is a perfect 5-0 in its last 5 games following a loss. The Nationals are 10-1 in Strasburg's last 11 starts during game 3 of a series. Miami 1-10 is in home games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nationals Sunday.

15* Angels/Yankees AL Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -101

Any time you can get Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver at this price, you should almost always take advantage. That's especially the case Sunday as he's motivated to help the Angels avoid getting swept at the hands of the New York Yankees after dropping the first two games of this series.

Weaver is 10-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 15 starts this season, and 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in his last three starts. He has given up just one earned run over 21 2/3 innings while winning each of his last three outings.

Ivan Nova has been more lucky than good this season. The right-hander is 10-3 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in 17 starts. Nova has been sub-par at home to say the least, going 3-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in seven starts at Yankee Stadium in 2012.

The Angels are 9-0 in Weaver's last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Weaver's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are 6-0 in Weaver's last 6 starts vs. American League East. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 road starts. The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. These five trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing Los Angeles. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

15* Rangers/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 6.5

Oddsmakers are giving both Yu Darvish and Felix Hernandez too much credit in this one. Both the Mariners and Rangers are capable of covering this small 6.5-run total on their own. I look for 7-plus combined runs to be scored early in this contest Saturday night.

Darvish has had a solid season to this point at 10-5 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in 16 starts, but he hasn't been able to figure out the Mariners. Darvish is 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.275 WHIP in two starts against Seattle this season, giving up nine earned runs and 22 base runners over 9 2/3 innings.

Hernandez is having another stellar year for the Mariners at 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.229 WHIP. But he'll be up against arguably the best line-up in baseball tonight and a team that is very familiar with him. Hernandez is 11-16 with a 3.92 ERA in 33 career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 5-1 in Hernandez's last 6 starts as an underdog. The OVER is 4-1 in Darvish's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The OVER is 5-1 in Hernandez's last 6 home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.