15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +170

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have quietly gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall. With the edge they have on the mound tonight, they should not be a huge road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals like they are.

Jacob Turner is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in his last three starts.

Jake Westbrook has been very fortunate to post a 2.95 ERA in 10 starts this season because he has a massive 1.459 WHIP on the year. That ERA cannot stay down given how many runners he is putting on base. In fact, Westbrook has come back down to reality of late, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 10 earned runs in 10 innings.

Westbrook is 4-13 (-13.1 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Miami is 5-1 in Turner's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Marlins are 5-2 in Turner's last 7 starts as an underdog. The Cardinals are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis is 2-9 in Westbrook's last 11 starts vs. National League East. The Cardinals are 0-5 in Westbrook's last 5 Friday starts. Roll with the Marlins Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +182

The Chicago White Sox are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a massive road underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog in this one.

You would think that Tampa Bay had a huge edge on the mound given the line, but that's simply not the case. In fact, I would argue that Chicago has the edge. Dylan Axelrod is 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 16 starts this season, while Jeremy Hellickson is 7-3 with a 4.90 ERA in 17 starts.

Then there's the head-to-head numbers. Axelrod is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in one career start against Tampa Bay, while Hellickson is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago. He has never beaten the White Sox. Take this 100% never lost angle straight to the bank tonight. Bet the White Sox Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -110

The Baltimore Orioles should be a much heavier favorite over the New York Yankees tonight. They have a massive edge on the mound in this one, and I look for them to roll the Yankees as a result.

Miguel Gonzalez is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 6-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in seven road starts. Gonzalez is also 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.921 WHIP in five career starts against New York.

Ivan Nova is simply no match for Gonzalez. New York's right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in five starts this season. Nova is also 3-2 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in eight career starts against Baltimore. In his last three starts against the Orioles, Nova has gone 0-2 with a 10.26 ERA, allowing 19 earned runs over 16 2/3 innings.

The Orioles are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts on grass. The Orioles are 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore is 4-0 in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 in its last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. The Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. These six trends combine for a 28-0 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Friday.

15* Tigers/Indians AL Central ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +120

The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value tonight as a road underdog to the Cleveland Indians. They are rolling right now having won three straight while scoring a combined 24 runs in the process.

While the season numbers would say different, I actually believe that the Tigers have the edge on the mound in this one. That's because Rick Porcello is 6-3 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 17 career starts against Cleveland, while Justin Masterson is 2-7 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in 12 career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 25-10 in their last 35 during game 1 of a series. Detroit is 21-10 in Porcello's last 31 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland. Porcello is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts against Cleveland, allowing 5 earned runs over 16 2/3 innings. Take the Tigers Friday.

15* NL Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers +127

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value Thursday. They are playing their best baseball of the season having won 10 of their last 11 games overall coming in, and they should not be a dog to the Rockies as a result.

Chris Capuano has enjoyed a ton of success away from Los Angeles this season. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in four road starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 22 base runners over 24 innings.

Jhoulys Chacin is 5-2 with a 4.31 ERA in 10 home starts this year for Colorado. The Rockies have really been struggling of late due to the injury to their best hitter, Troy Tulowitzki. They have lost 11 of their last 15 coming in.

The Rockies are 20-43 in their last 63 games vs. a left-handed starter. Colorado is 0-8 in its last 8 Thursday games. The Rockies are 0-8 in their last 8 after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game. With the Dodgers being 10-1 in their last 11 games overall, these last three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Los Angeles tonight. Take the Dodgers Thursday.

20* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Tigers -137

The Detroit Tigers have won the last two games of this series against the Toronto Blue Jays to get back on track following a stretch in which they lost six of eight. I look for them to continue their momentum with another victory Thursday.

With ace Justin Verlander on the mound, this is an easy choice. While he hasn't been at his best thus far, Verlander is still 8-5 with a 3.77 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 3.46 ERA in nine road starts.

Verlander has absolutely owned Toronto in recent starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his last four starts against the Blue Jays, pitching at least 8 innings in all four. He has allowed just 6 earned runs over 34 innings during this stretch.

Verlander is 19-1 (+17.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is winning by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Tigers Thursday.

15* NL Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers -111

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Colorado Rockies tonight. Los Angeles comes in playing its best baseball of the season having won nine of their last 10 games overall heading into this one.

It comes as no surprise that this run is occurring right now due to the fact that this team is finally almost fully healthy. Meanwhile, Colorado remains without its best player in Troy Tulowitzki, which is a big reason why it has lost 10 of its last 14 overall.

I'll gladly back Zach Greinke at this price tonight. The right-hander has gone 5-2 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He has allowed 5 earned runs over 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Colorado for a solid 2.76 ERA.

Greinke is 13-1 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take this combined 27-1 system straight to the bank tonight. Take the Dodgers Wednesday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -114

The Detroit Tigers are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing six of their last eight games coming in. They earned a nice 1-run victory last night, and due to the edge they have on the mound tonight, I look for a blowout victory in Game 3 of this series with Toronto.

Max Scherzer is having a Cy Young-caliber season. The right-hander is 12-0 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 16 starts, including 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in seven road starts. Scherzer is also 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in five career starts against Toronto.

Josh Johnson is no match for Scherzer. Toronto's right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.594 WHIP over nine starts this season. He face Detroit earlier this season on April 11, giving up 6 earned runs over 1 1/3 innings for a 40.60 ERA in a 1-11 loss.

The Tigers are 35-16 in Scherzer's last 51 starts overall. Scherzer is 10-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. Scherzer is 33-12 (+15.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Tigers Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +170

The Arizona Diamondbacks could not possibly be more motivated for a victory than they are tonight. They have lost five straight and eight of their last nine coming in to fall to 42-41 on the season. At this price, I'll give them a shot as they get back in the win column Wednesday.

Matt Harvey is having a great season for New York, but he's simply getting too much respect from the books in this one. After all, the Mets are just 35-45 on the season, and they are scoring a mere 3.4 runs/game at home, while Arizona is scoring 4.5 runs/game on the road.

Randall Delgado has posted a 3.50 ERA in three starts this season for the Diamondbacks, including a 3.00 ERA in his lone road start. Delgado beat the Mets 5-3 in his lone career start against them last year.

The Diamondbacks are 13-5 in their last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Mets are 10-21 in their last 31 home games. New York is 11-28 in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 2-9 in their last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. New York is 1-5 in Harvey's last 6 home starts. Roll with the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

15* Cardinals/Angels Interleague BAILOUT on Los Angeles -120

Rarely will you ever get ace Jered Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels as this small of a home favorite. I'll take advantage and back the home team as they continue playing their best baseball of the season. The Angels have won six straight heading into this one.

Weaver was banged up early in the season which is the biggest reason why he's only 1-4 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in eight starts this year. However, he is coming off one of his best starts, allowing one earned run over 7 innings of a 3-1 victory at Detroit.

Lance Lynn has struggled on the road this season for St. Louis, going 4-2 with a 4.72 ERA over eight starts. In fact, he has allowed 11 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings (7.81 ERA) in his last two road starts which have come against lowly Houston and Miami.

This play falls into a system that is 44-11 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.

Weaver is 14-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. Weaver is 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Mound Mismatch on Arizona Diamondbacks -125

I had the Arizona Diamondbacks last night as they blew a 3-0 lead, and twice blew save opportunities. I'm going to come back with them as they'll be even more hungry for a victory tonight. They have dropped four straight and six of their last seven coming in.

I like Arizona's chances of getting back in the win column considering its edge on the mound. Patrick Corbin has been the most profitable starter to back in the league this season. He has gone 9-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.003 WHIP in 16 starts, and the Diamondbacks are 15-1 (94%) in those 16 contests.

Jeremy Hefner is no match for Corbin. The right-hander has gone 2-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.287 WHIP over 15 starts and one relief appearance in 2013.

Corbin is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. The Mets are 0-8 in Hefner's last 8 starts as a home underdog. Take this combined 19-0 system straight to the bank tonight. Take the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -135

The Detroit Tigers come into this contest with the Toronto Blue Jays highly motivated for a victory. They have lost three straight and six of their last seven to fall 1/2-game behind the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central Division.

Doug Fister is the perfect guy to get them back on track. Fister has gone 6-5 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in eight road starts. He'll be up against the washed-up Chien-Ming Wang, who is 1-1 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in four starts this year.

Fister has absolutely owned Toronto in his last two starts against it. The right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in those two starts, allowing just two earned runs over 16 innings while striking out 14.

The Tigers are 9-3 in Fister's last 12 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Blue Jays are 21-43 in their last 64 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Detroit is 6-2 in its last 8 meetings with Toronto. Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-109)

The Washington Nationals get the call Tuesday on the Run Line as they stay red hot at the plate. They have scored a combined 23 runs over the past two days, and they just got Bryce Harper back in the line-up on Monday.

Ace Stephen Strasburg will shut down the struggling Milwaukee Brewers, who have lost six straight while scoring a mere 2.7 runs/game in the process, and they remain without Ryan Braun. Strasburg has gone 4-6 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in seven home starts.

Milwaukee's Wily Peralta is simply no match for Strasburg. Peralta has gone 5-9 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 17 starts this season to rank as one of the worst starters in baseball in 2013. He is also 0-1 with a 10.11 ERA and 3.371 WHIP in one career start against Washington.

The Brewers are 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee is 15-40 in its last 55 games as a road underdog. The Brewers are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Milwaukee is 0-5 in Peralta's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Roll with Washington Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -108

After getting swept by the Atlanta Braves last series, and losing six of their last seven games overall, the Arizona Diamondbacks head ingot Game 1 of this series with the New York Mets highly motivated for a victory.

Given the edge they have on the mound in this one, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout win tonight. Wade Miley has gone 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 starts this season, 3-5 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 road starts, and 0-2 with a 3.06 ERA in his last three starts.

He has posted much better numbers than Shaun Marcum. New York's right-hander is 1-9 with a 5.46 ERA in 10 starts, including 0-4 with a 6.91 ERA in five home starts. Marcum is also 1-1 with an 8.04 ERA in three career starts against Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in their last 20 games as a road favorite. Marcum is 3-14 (-13.2 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. Arizona is 6-1 in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

New York is 25-51 in its last 76 home games. The Mets are 15-36 in their last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 9-28 in its last 37 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 0-4 in Marcums last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.

15* Giants/Reds ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati -1.5 (+128)

The Cincinnati Reds should have no problem winning by 2-plus runs tonight over the San Francisco Giants. After losing seven of their last nine games overall, the Reds are highly motivated for a victory. I believe they get it tonight do to their edge on the mound.

Bronson Arroyo remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 6-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 16 starts, including 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Arroyo has posted a 2.67 ERA in 12 career starts against San Francisco as well.

Mike Kickham is no more than a spot starter for San Francisco. If he keeps pitching like he has been, he won't last in the rotation for very long. Kickham has gone 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA and 2.089 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs, 16 base runners and 3 homers over 7 2/3 innings.

The Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall while scoring just 2.4 runs/game in the process. San Francisco is 7-19 in its last 26 road games. The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is 62-29 in its last 91 vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 8-0 in Arroyo's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Reds on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Monday Mound Mismatch on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+115)

The Washington Nationals will get Bryce Harper back from the DL Monday night after missing the entire month of June. Meanwhile, Milwaukee remains without its best hitter in Ryan Braun.

Washington will roll tonight due to its edge on the mound and at the plate. Jordan Zimmerman has been nothing short of spectacular this season, going 11-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.916 WHIP in 16 starts. Zimmerman has been untouchable at home, going 8-0 with a 1.09 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in nine starts.

Yovani Gallardo has gone 6-7 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in 17 starts this season. While Gallardo is 3-2 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in seven career starts against Washington, Zimmerman is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.947 WHIP In two career starts against Milwaukee.

Zimmerman is 18-5 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are winning by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Zimmerman is 14-1 (+13.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Washington is winning by 2.8 runs/game in this spot. Washington is 9-0 in Zimmerman's 9 home starts this season. Take the Nationals on the Run Line Monday.

20* Yankees/Orioles ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +113

The New York Yankees have lost four straight games heading into this showdown with the Baltimore Orioles tonight. They'll be highly motivated for a victory, and due to their edge on the mound, I believe they get it.

Hiroki Kuroda is 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in his last three starts. Kuroda is also 2-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in five career starts against Baltimore.

Chris Tillman has been solid for Baltimore, going 9-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in 16 starts, but he's no Kuroda. Tillman is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in nine home starts, and 2-3 with an 8.16 ERA and 2.163 WHIP in seven career starts against New York.

New York is a very resilient team when trying to avoid a sweep. The Yankees are 42-15 in their last 57 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Yankees are 7-3 in Kuroda's last 10 starts as an underdog. Bet New York Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds +107

After losing three straight and six of their last seven games overall, the Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday. Given the edge they have on the mound over the Texas Rangers in this one, I like them to get back in the win column in blowout fashion.

Mike Leake is quietly having a superb season for Cincinnati. The right-hander has gone 7-3 with a 2.61 ERA in 15 starts, 5-1 with a 2.32 ERA in eight road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last three starts.

Leake will be up against Texas starter Nick Tepesch, who is 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in 14 starts this season. Tepesch is also 1-3 with a 4.79 ERA in seven home starts, and 0-1 with a 7.53 ERA in his last three outings.

The Reds are 5-1 in Leake's last 6 road starts. Cincinnati is 12-5 in its last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Texas is 1-4 in Tepesch's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Roll with the Reds Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Giants -101

The San Francisco Giants are highly motivated for a victory Saturday against the Colorado Rockies. The defending champs have lost five straight coming in, so they won't be taking this game lightly.

While Matt Cain got off to a slow start this season, he has started to pitch like the ace of the staff he is of late. Cain is 1-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.813 WHIP over his last three starts.

Cain is 17-7 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 30 career starts against Colorado. He'll be up against Jorge De La Rosa, who is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts against San Francisco, allowing 13 earned runs over 14 2/3 innings.

San Francisco is 10-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 11-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. The Rockies are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Giants Saturday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -113

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most resilient teams in the league. After one of their worst stretches of the season in which they have lost five of their last six games overall, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory today over the Oakland A's.

Ace Adam Wainwright is just the guy to stop the bleeding. The right-hander is having a Cy Young-caliber season, going 10-5 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.011 WHIP through 16 starts in 2013.

Wainwright will be up against Jarrod Parker, who is clearly overmatched in this one. Oakland's right-hander has gone 6-6 with a 4.27 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 4.88 ERA in eight home starts.

St. Louis is 9-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season. The Cardinals are 20-3 (+16.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. St. Louis is 24-7 (+14.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Wainwright is 7-0 (+7.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less this season. The Cardinals are 8-0 in Wainwright's last 8 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. St. Louis is 11-1 in Wainwright's last 12 road starts. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Wainwright and the Cardinals. Bet St. Louis Saturday.

15* AL Friday Mound Mismatch on Kansas City Royals -140

The Kansas City Royals have a huge edge on the mound tonight over the Minnesota Twins. After losing Game 1 of this series to the Twins, I believe the Royals bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 due to their advantage on the rubber.

James Shields has been one of the best starters in the entire league in 2013. Despite his unlucky 2-6 record, the right-hander has posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Those numbers drop to a 2.50 ERA and 1.130 WHIP over his eight road starts.

P.J. Walters is one of the worst starters in the league. He has gone 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three outings.

Shields has gone 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last four starts against Minnesota, allowing just seven earned runs over 28 innings of work. Meanwhile, Walters has never beaten Kansas City, going 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals.

The Twins are 0-10 (-10.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season. They are losing by a whopping 3.8 runs/game in this spot. Roll with the Royals Friday.

15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -127

The Los Angeles Angels are feeling great about themselves after sweeping the Detroit Tigers last series while scoring a combined 24 runs in the process. This team is finally starting to play up to its potential, and it will be a scary squad in the second half.

Jerome Williams is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has given the Angels a ton of quality starts this season, going 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.184 WHIP. He has also given up just seven earned runs over 21 starts in his last three starts against Houston for a 3.00 ERA.

Bud Norris has certainly had the answer for the Angels this season. He has gone 3-0 against them in 2013 alone, and there's no question that Los Angeles wants revenge. Getting to see him for a 4th time already this season is a huge advantage for the Angels, and they'll be ready for him tonight.

The Angels are 11-3 in Williams' last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record, including a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 10-26 in Norris' last 36 starts, including 3-14 in his last 17 Friday starts. We're getting Los Angeles at a discounted price tonight. Take the Angels Friday.

25* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -130

After getting swept by the Los Angeles Angels at home last series, the Detroit Tigers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder heading into Game 1 of this series with the Tampa Bay Rays Friday.

Max Scherzer has been Detroit's best starter all season, and he's ready to be the one to stop the bleeding tonight. Scherzer is 11-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.910 WHIP through 15 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.689 WHIP in six road starts.

Scherzer loves tonight's opponent. The right-hander has gone 2-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in five career starts against Tampa Bay. In his lone start against the Rays in 2013, Scherzer gave up just one earned run and six base runners over 7 innings while striking out nine on June 6.

The Tigers are 37-18 in Scherzer's last 55 starts overall. Detroit is 7-1 in Scherzer's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -129

After losing five of their last six games overall, including two out of three to the Indians in this series, the Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated for a victory tonight in Game 4. I look for them to roll Cleveland to even this series at 2-2.

Miguel Gonzalez is one of the most underrated starters in the entire league. The right-hander has gone 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 13 starts this season. In his last three starts against potent lineups in Toronto, Boston & LA Angels, Gonzalez has gone 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.831 WHIP.

Corey Kluber has been respectable for Cleveland, going 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 11 starts this season. However, he has been at his worst on the road, going 3-2 with a 4.46 ERA over six starts.

The Indians are 21-45 in their last 66 games as a road underdog. The Orioles are 41-15 in their last 56 games following a loss. Cleveland is 6-18 in its last 24 vs. AL East foes.

Cleveland is 0-5 in Kluber's last 5 starts vs. AL East opponents. Baltimore is 10-1 in Gonzalez's last 11 home starts. The Orioles are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts as a home favorite. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Thursday.

15* NL Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -116

The Philadelphia Phillies should be a much heavier favorite over the San Diego Padres tonight. They have Cole Hamels going up against Robbie Erlin, giving the Phillies a massive edge on the mound in this one.

Hamels is undervalued right now due to his 2-11 start with a 4.50 ERA and 1.290 WHIP on the season. There's no question he is better than what he has shown so far, and I have no doubt he'll have a monster second half to bring those numbers down.

Hamels has pitched his best away from home this season, sporting a 3.54 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in eight road starts. The left-hander has absolutely owned San Diego, going 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Padres. Hamels is 5-0 with a miniscule 0.73 ERA in his last five starts against San Diego dating back to 2010, allowing 3 earned runs over 37 innings.

Robbie Erlin will be making just his second start of the season for the Padres, and he's no more than a spot starter in this league. The Phillies are 17-6 in Hamels' last 23 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Philadelphia is 42-18 in its last 60 meetings with the Padres, including 27-7 in its last 34 meetings in San Diego. Roll with the Phillies Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+133)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will win by 2-plus runs tonight and sweep the NL West-rival San Francisco Giants. With the edge they have on the mound in this one, and with a healthy return of Matt Kemp to one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, winning by 2-plus won't be a problem.

Clayton Kershaw has pitched like the former NL Cy Young winner he is this season. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.989 WHIP through 16 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.954 WHIP In nine home starts.

Kershaw is 9-4 with a miniscule 1.29 ERA and 0.835 WHIP in 18 career starts against San Francisco. In his last two home starts against the Giants, Kershaw has allowed one earned run over 17 innings with the Dodgers winning those games by finals of 4-0 and 5-1, respectively. In fact, Kershaw has only allowed 9 earned runs over 78 1/3 innings in his last 10 starts against the Giants for a 1.03 ERA.

Tim Lincecum is not pitching like the former NL Cy Young winner that he is, and he hasn't over the last few seasons. The right-hander has gone 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 15 starts this year, including 1-4 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in seven road starts.

Lincecum is 0-7 (-8.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. The Giants are losing by 3.9 runs/game in this spot. San Francisco is 1-8 (-8.3 Units) against the money line after a one run loss this season. It is losing by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Rangers/Yankees ESPN 2 No-Brainer on New York -132

The New York Yankees have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Texas Rangers. I look for that to be a big reason that they win this one going away on ESPN's Wednesday Night Baseball.

Andy Pettite continues to get it done for the Yankees despite his age. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 4.20 ERA on the season. He has allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his last three starts against Texas, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in the process.

I look for the Yankees to tee off on the Rangers' worst starter, Justin Grimm. The right-hander has gone 6-5 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 7.01 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in seven road starts.

The Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Yankees are 37-15 in Pettitte's last 52 starts as a favorite. New York is 12-4 in its last 16 meetings with Texas, including 9-1 in its last 10 home meetings. Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -120

The Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory Tuesday in Game 2 of this series with the Cleveland Indians. They have lost four straight coming in, and I look for Buck Showalter's team to respond in a big way tonight to get back in the win column.

The underrated Chris Tillman is having yet another solid season for Baltimore, going 8-2 with a 3.71 ERA in 15 starts. He has been even more dominant of late, going 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts.

Justin Masterson has been at his worst on the road this season for Cleveland. The right-hander is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA in seven starts away from home in 2013. The Indians are 5-16 in Masterson's last 21 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

Cleveland is 23-48 in its last 71 road games. The Indians are 21-47 in their last 68 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Orioles are 24-8 in their last 32 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore is 14-2 in Tillman's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +126

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Detroit Tigers Tuesday night. At 33-43 and nearing the midpoint of the season, the Angels realize that now is the time to turn it on if they want to make a run at the postseason.

With the edge the Angels have on the mound tonight, they should not be a dog in this one. C.J. Wilson is 6-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. In his last two starts against Detroit, Wilson has gone 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA while allowing 3 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings.

Rick Porcello is 4-4 with a 4.74 ERA in 13 starts and one relief appearance in 2013. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 7.68 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in eight career starts against Los Angeles. His worst start of the season came against the Angels on April 20th as Porcello allowed 9 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning of a 10-0 loss.

The Angels are 17-5 in their last 22 games following an off day. Los Angeles is 20-8 in its last 28 vs. AL Central opponents. The Tigers are 1-5 in Porcello's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Los Angeles is 6-0 in its last 6 meetings with Detroit. Take the Angels Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Yankees Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on New York +118

Rarely will you ever get the New York Yankees as a home underdog. I'll gladly take advantage Tuesday and back them at an excellent price as they look to improve to 23-16 at home this season.

Hiroki Kuroda continues to get disrespected by oddsmakers. The right-hander is 7-5 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in seven home starts.

Kuroda has posted a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in three career starts against Texas. In fact, in his lone home start against the Rangers, Kuroda pitched a complete game shutout while allowing only four base runners in a 3-0 New York victory on 8/14/2012.

Texas is 5-17 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a favorite. Texas is 1-5 in Yu Darvish's last 6 starts. The Yankees are 21-10 in their last 31 games following an off day. New York is 11-4 in its last 15 meetings with Texas, including 8-1 in its last 9 home meetings. Roll with the Yankees Tuesday.

20* NL Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -111

The Philadelphia Phillies have a big edge on the mound tonight with Cliff Lee over Eric Stults. As a result, I'll take advantage and back them at an excellent price Monday.

Lee has gone 9-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.952 WHIP through 15 starts this season. He has been at his best away from home, going 6-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in nine road starts in 2013.

Stults is having a solid season for San Diego as well, but he's no Lee. He has gone 6-5 with a 3.25 ERA in 15 starts this season for the Padres.

The Phillies are 8-1 in Lee's last 9 starts. Philadelphia is 5-0 in Lee's last 5 road starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. The Phillies are 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts vs. NL West opponents. Bet Philadelphia Monday.

20* Rangers/Cardinals ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Texas +182

The Texas Rangers are showing their best value of the season Sunday. Rarely will you ever get them as close to a 2-to-1 underdog, so we'll take advantage tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

Nick Tepesch is an underrated starter in this league. He is an unfamiliar name for most bettors, but he has performed decently for most of the season, going 3-6 with a 4.84 ERA for Texas.

Adam Wainwright is a popular name, and he gets too much credit because of it, especially tonight. Wainwright gave up 4 earned runs and two homers over 7 innings in his last start in a 2-4 home loss to the Chicago Cubs as a -210 favorite.

Texas is 14-3 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 23-7 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Bet the Rangers Sunday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +145

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value Sunday. Andrew Cashner is getting way too much respect from the books in this one. He has only been a starter this year, and he won't be able to sustain his numbers over a full season.

Chris Capuano has posted a 4.62 ERA through seven starts and two relief appearances for the Dodgers. He has been at his best on the road, going 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP through three starts away from home.

Cashner is 5-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.226 WHIP through 11 starts and seven relief appearances in 2013. Capuano is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 12 career starts against San Diego. He won his last start at San Diego on 9/27/2012, giving up just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings of an 8-4 Dodgers' victory.

The Dodgers are 8-3 in Capuano's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take the Dodgers Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -132

The Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They will get a win to avoid the 3-0 sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll gladly back them at this price.

Joe Blanton is coming around for the Angels after a disastrous start. He has allowed 3 earned runs over less in four of his last five starts. That includes 2 earned runs in three of those outings, and he has struck out 11 batters twice during this span.

Charlie Morton has only made two starts this season for Pittsburgh. He is no more than a spot starter in this league, and I look for the Angels' potent offense to get after him early and often in this one.

Morton is 10-30 (-17.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 since 1997. Los Angele is 16-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Morton is 2-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

20* Pirates/Angels Interleague BAILOUT on Los Angeles -117

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as only a small home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at this price tonight.

Jerome Williams is not getting the respect he deserves from the books. Williams has gone 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.144 WHIP through seven starts and 11 relief appearances in 2013. He has posted a 3.38 ERA in four career starts against Pittsburgh.

Francisco Liriano is getting way too much respect for his fast start in limited action this season. Remember, Liriano has posted a 5.09 ERA or worse in four of his seven big league seasons, so his current 2.44 ERA in unsustainable. Plus, he's 1-4 with a 6.63 ERA in seven career starts against the Angels.

The Pirates are 13-53 in their last 66 interleague road games. The Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 41-20 in its last 61 interleague home games. Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +100

The Los Angeles Dodgers should not be the underdog in this contest with the San Diego Padres. They clearly have the better starter on the mound, and they'll be motivated to bounce back from a Game 1 defeat tonight.

Zach Greinke has gone 3-2 with a 4.23 ERA through nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts. He finally appears fully recovered from his broken collarbone suffered earlier this season.

Edinson Volquez is 5-5 with a 5.84 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 1-0 with an 8.16 ERA in his last three. Volquez is 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles, while Greinke is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego.

Greinke is 35-13 (+18.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 50-24 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. San Diego is 3-17 (-14.9 Units) against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. Take the Dodgers Saturday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +136

Great value here with the Minnesota Twins as they look to bounce back from a 1-5 loss to Cleveland in Game 1 of this series. P.J. Walters clearly isn't getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers in this one.

Walters has gone 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA in five starts this season, 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two road starts, and 0-2 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts overall.

Corey Kluber is 4-4 with a 3.73 ERA over 10 starts in 2013. While those numbers are decent, he's getting too much respect in this one. Kluber is also 0-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four career starts against Minnesota.

Minnesota is a very profitable 33-30 (+16.7 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Walters is 5-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 27-53 (-22.6 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Twins Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Boston Red Sox +165

The Boston Red Sox are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight against the Detroit Tigers. While Max Scherzer is having a very solid season for Detroit, he's up against a team that he simply has not been able to figure out in the past.

Scherzer is 1-3 with a 9.21 ERA and 1.941 WHIP in six career starts against the Red Sox. He has allowed 29 earned runs and 55 base runners over 28 2/3 innings in those six outings.

The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series. This is simply too good of value to pass up given Scherzer's career numbers against Boston. Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -146

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a massive edge on the mound tonight. I'll gladly back them at this price with former Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw on the mound. He'll take down Clayton Richard and the San Diego Padres in this one.

Kershaw is 5-4 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Richard has gone 1-5 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.678 WHIP in 10 starts this year for the Padres.

Kershaw is 8-5 with a 2.44 ERA in 19 career starts against San Diego. Kershaw is 20-3 (+14.7 Units) against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game since 1997. Richard is 10-27 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.

This play falls into a system that is 59-16 (78.7%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (SAN DIEGO) - starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

25* NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Heat UNDER 189.5

I have correctly picked the winning side in each of the first six games in this series. However, I believe the oddamakers have set a very solid spread for Game 7. But they have certainly missed their mark on the total, which is where all the value lies in this huge contest.

By now, San Antonio and Miami know exactly what one another is going to do. That makes points very hard to come by as it's now down to which team wants it more. Game 6 would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime, and I look for Game 7 to be even lower scoring tonight.

Both teams come in extremely tired after using up a ton of energy in that incredible Game 6. Neither team is going to have the energy to get out and fast break with any kind of consistency. That's why I expect this to be a slow-it-down, grind-it-out Game 7. Also, the pressure of a Game 7 will make it more difficult for shooters to knock down shots.

The play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - as a # 1 seed in the playoffs, in the finals.

The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Spurs last 22 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami's last 5 home games. The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between these teams in Miami. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Thursday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Detroit Tigers -116

Rarely will you ever get the Detroit Tigers at this kind of price at home. Off back-to-back losses to Baltimore over the past two days, I look for the Tigers to get back into the win column with a Game 1 victory over Boston tonight.

Boston has played three games over the past two days after having a double-header on Tuesday. Its bullpen will be tired heading into this one, and the Red Sox will need their bullpen with John Lackey on the mound.

Lackey is 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.409 over seven road starts in 2013. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA in his last two starts against Detroit, allowing 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners over 13 innings in those two outings.

Jose Alvarez pitched a gem in his lone start for Detroit this season on June 9. He gave up just one earned run and four base runners over six innings while striking out 7 to earn the victory in a 4-1 triumph at home over Cleveland.

The Red Sox are 18-40 in their last 58 games as an underdog. Boston is 9-24 in its last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 37-14 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Detroit is 60-25 in its last 85 home games. The Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. Roll with Detroit Thursday.

15* Rays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +101

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be an underdog to the New York Yankees tonight. I believe they have the edge on the mound in this one with Matt Moore over Andy Pettite.

While Moore has struggled of late, he has still put together a very productive season at 8-3 with a 4.12 ERA. The left-hander has been at his best on the road, going 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA in seven starts.

Moore is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.274 WHIP in six career starts against New York. In his last two starts against the Yankees, both of which have come this season, he has gone 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA while allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings.

Andy Pettite is clearly past his prime. The left-hander has been at his worst at home this season, going 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in five starts. Pettite has posted a 3.98 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in 32 career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is 22-8 (+14.6 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Rays are 7-1 in Moore's last 8 road starts. The Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Also, New York is hitting just .223 and scoring 3.3 runs/game against left-handed starters this season, while Tampa Bay is scoring 4.8 runs/game against southpaws in 2013. Take the Rays Thursday.

15* AL NEVER LOST Mound Mismatch on Chicago White Sox -122

The White Sox are highly motivated for a victory after dropping five of their last six games overall. I love their chances of getting back into the win column considering the edge they have on the mound in this one behind Chris Sale.

Hands down, Sale is one of the best starters in the league. The left-hander has gone 5-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in 12 starts this season while striking out 86 batters in 85 1/3 innings. He'll be up against Kevin Correia, who is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in 13 starts for Minnesota.

Sale has never lost to Minnesota, going 3-0 with a miniscule 0.90 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins. He has allowed just two earned runs and 14 base runners over 20 innings in those three starts. Roll with the White Sox Wednesday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -113

After three straight losses, including the first two games of this series to the Phillies, the Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday. I look for them to win and avoid the sweep in Game 3 tonight.

The Nationals have a huge edge on the mound in this one behind Gio Gonzalez, who is 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kyle Kendrick has gone 6-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 14 starts this season for Philadelphia. He has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in his last three starts. Kendrick allowed 7 earned runs and 12 base runners over 4 1/3 innings in his last start against Colorado.

Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Kendrick is 4-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 17 career starts against Washington.

Gonzalez is 52-22 (+21.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher since 1997. Washington is 16-3 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 19-7 in Gonzalez's last 26 road starts. Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +145

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall. They should not be this heavy of an underdog to the Cleveland Indians given how well they are playing heading into this one.

That's especially the case considering they have the edge on the mound in this one. Luis Mendoza is an underrated starter in this league. He has been at his best on the road, going 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in six starts away from home. He is also 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three starts.

What I really like about this play is the fact that Mendoza is 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts against Cleveland, allowing exactly 2 earned runs in each starts. Meanwhile, Justin Masterson is 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA in his last three starts against Kansas City, yielding 18 earned runs over 18 1/3 innings.

Cleveland is 8-25 (-14.3 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Indians are 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take Kansas City Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +7

I have been using the zig zag theory to perfection since taking San Antonio +5.5 in Game 1. I have gone 5-0 in the NBA Finals by selecting Miami in Game 2, San Antonio in Game 3, the Heat in Game 4, and the Spurs in Game 5.

However, I feel like it's time to buck this trend. That's because I believe that the oddsmakers have finally over-adjusted for it, installing Miami as a series-high 7-point favorite for Game 6. The value is with the Spurs in this one folks.

San Antonio knows that its best chance to win this series is in Game 6, because history is not on its side if this series goes to a Game 7. Greg Popovich will have his team focused and ready to go win this series in Game 6.

It's clear that Manu Ginobli still has something left in the tank. He, along with Danny Green, were the keys to San Antonio's Game 5 victory. I look for the Spurs to continue to share the ball and find the open man, while Manu is every bit as aggressive as he was in Game 6, which certainly helps this team.

Only three teams in NBA Finals history have rallied from a 3-2 deficit to win the final two home games, and thus the series. Tony Parker got overlooked in Game 5 as he scored a game-high 26 points, showing that his hamstring is a non-issue. Tim Duncan did what he does, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds.

San Antonio is 14-3 ATS after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better this season. Miami is 1-10 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season, including 0-7 ATS ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +184

The Chicago Cubs should not be this big of an underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday with ace Jeff Samardzija on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price tonight.

Samardzija has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.209 WHIP with 104 strikeouts through 91 innings over 14 starts this season. He has been at his best on the road, sporting a 2.83 ERA and 0.965 WHIP through seven starts away from home in 2013.

The Cubs are 4-1 in Samardzija's five career starts against St. Louis, and he has been an underdog in all five of them. Two of those wins came against tonight's scheduled starter Adam Wainwright, who is 6-5 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 18 career starts against Chicago.

In his last two starts against St. Louis, Samardzija has allowed just two earned runs over 12 2/3 innings while striking out 16 for a 1.42 ERA. Wainwright has yielded 15 earned runs over 22 innings in his last four starts against Chicago for a 6.14 ERA. Take the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-102)

The Detroit Tigers should have no problem making easy work of the Baltimore Orioles tonight. I fully expect them to win by two-plus runs given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Justin Verlander has gone 8-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 14 starts this season with 101 strikeouts over 87 innings. He is coming off his best start of the season, pitching seven shutout innings while allowing just five base runners to the Kansas City Royals on June 12th.

"For me, it was my best start, just because of the way I've been working to get back where I need to be," Verlander told the team's official website. "I feel like I've been getting better every start. I wasn't exactly where I want to be, but pretty doggone close."

Verlander is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 12 career starts against Baltimore. The Tigers have gone 11-1 in those 12 contests, winning 10 times by two runs or more in the process. That's a 10-2 (83%) run line system in favor of the Tigers heading into this one.

The Tigers are 29-6 in Verlanders last 35 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater. Detroit is 47-14 in Verlander's last 61 home starts. Zach Britton gave up six earned runs and 12 base runners over 6 innings of a a 2-6 loss at Seattle on April 29 in his lone start of the season for Baltimore. Roll with the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +185

The New York Mets are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight. With the way Dillon Gee has been pitching of late, the Mets have a great shot to pull off the upset in this one.

Gee has gone 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last three starts, which have come against the Yankees, Nationals & Cardinals. He has allowed just three earned runs while striking out 26 batters over 21 innings.

Tim Hudson is getting too much respect from the books considering the way he has pitched in 2013. The veteran right-hander has gone 4-6 with a 4.41 ERA in 14 starts this season. He has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts against New York.

Gee is 3-3 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in nine career starts against Atlanta. Gee is a very profitable 14-9 (+11.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 8-21 (-19.1 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Mets are 4-1 in Gee's last 5 road starts. The Braves are 2-5 in Hudson's last 7 starts. Take New York Monday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -113

The Texas Rangers are more motivated for a victory tonight than at any other point this season. They have lost a season-high six straight games coming in after getting swept in four games by the Toronto Blue Jays in their last series.

Rarely will you ever get the Rangers at this kind of price at home, and I'll take advantage tonight. Nick Tepesch has been solid this season for the Rangers, posting a 4.30 ERA in 12 starts, including a 3.66 ERA in six home starts. He'll be up against Daniel Straily, who is 4-2 with a 4.45 ERA in 10 starts this season for Oakland.

The Rangers are 77-37 in their last 114 games following a loss. Texas is 71-34 in its last 105 when its opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Texas Monday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds -111

The Cincinnati Reds are showing their best value of the season as only a small home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Monday. I'll gladly take advantage and back them as my strongest play in the NL Central division over the past month.

Mike Leake is not getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers in this one. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three. Leake is also 3-3 with a 3.94 ERA in 13 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Francisco Liriano is getting way too much respect from the books due to his solid start to the season in limited action. You have to remember that Liriano went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in 1009, 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA in 2010, 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA in 2011 and 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 2012. In fact, he has posted a 5.09 ERA or higher in four of his seven big league seasons.

Liriano is 5-20 (-17.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in his career. The Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Cincinnati is 5-1 in Leake's last 6 starts overall, and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. Bet the Reds Monday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -128

The Kansas City Royals have a massive edge on the mound over the Cleveland Indians Monday, and they should be a bigger favorite as a result. Plus, Kansas City is playing its best baseball of the season heading into this one. It has won 10 of its last 12 games overall.

James Shields has been unlucky with a 2-6 record despite an impressive 2.79 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He simply has not gotten the run support, but he certainly will get it tonight as the Royals stay red hot at the plate.

Kansas City will tee off on Carlos Carrasco, who is 0-2 with a 15.25 ERA and 2.868 WHIP in two starts this season for Cleveland. Carrasco has given up 13 earned runs and 22 base runners over 7 2/3 innings. He is also 2-2 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in five career starts against the Royals.

Cleveland is 7-24 (-14.3 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Kansas City is 5-0 in its last 5 games as a favorite. The Indians are 6-18 in Carrasco's last 24 starts as an underdog. Cleveland is 0-5 in its last 5 vs. AL Central foes. Roll with the Royals Monday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +108

The Philadelphia Phillies should not be an underdog at home to the Washington Nationals tonight. I'll back them at an excellent price in this one.

John Lannan makes his first start against his former team, and he'll clearly be out to prove that the Nationals should never have let him go. Lannan had one bad start before going on the DL, but had given up just four earned runs over 13 innings before his poor outing at Cincinnati.

Dan Haren should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The washed-up right-hander has gone 4-8 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.390 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in his last three starts.

Haren is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA in five career starts against Philadelphia. In fact, his teams are 0-5 in those five starts, so he has never beaten the Phillies in his career. Bet Philadelphia Monday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio +1.5

Just as Game 4 was a must-win for Miami, Game 5 has become a must-win for San Antonio. The Spurs know they cannot afford to be down 3-2 with the final two games being played in Miami. I look for them to respond in a big way at home in Game 5.

The media has made a big deal about Tony Parker's hamstring, and Manu Ginobli's poor play to this point. I look for both guys to respond in a big way, and for the team to rally around them like they have all season. That talk in the media has also shifted Miami to a 1.5-point favorite as the public has flocked to the Heat.

I'll go the other way and back the Spurs, who have been nothing short of dominant at home all season. They are 42-8 at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.0 points/game. Whatever they have to give, they will be putting on the floor in this one.

Miami has been absolutely terrible after a win in these playoffs. It is now 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. win, 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win, and 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. San Antonio is also 7-0 ATS off a home loss this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points/game in this spot. These seven trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs in Game 5 Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Mound Mismatch on Arizona Diamondbacks -110

After losing the first two games of this series to San Diego by a combined three runs, the Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory in Game 3. I look for them to avoid the sweep and to win this one going away.

While Ian Kennedy is just 3-4 with a 5.49 ERA on the season, he is clearly the better starter in this one. Plus, Kennedy is 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 12 career starts against San Diego.

Clayton Richard has been arguably the worst starter in the big leagues this season. The left-hander has gone 1-5 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.767 WHIP in nine starts and three relief appearances in 2013. Richard has also posted a 4.61 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in nine career starts against Arizona. He allowed 7 runs, 5 earned, and 11 base runners over 3 1/3 innings of a 1-8 home loss to the Diamondbacks in his lone start against them this season on May 4th.

Kennedy is 37-17 (+18.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 17-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Kennedy's last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Padres are 1-10 in Richard's last 11 starts overall, and 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. These last three trends combine for a 23-1 (96%) system backing Arizona. Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -179

The Texas Rangers are highly motivated for a victory heading into Sunday's showdown with the Toronto Blue Jays. They have lost a season-high five straight heading into this one, including the first three games of this series to Toronto.

With the edge the Rangers have on the mound, I certainly like them to blow out the Blue Jays and get back on the winning track. Derek Holland is 5-3 with a 3.11 ERA in 13 starts this season. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 1.10 ERA in his last two starts against Toronto, allowing just two earned runs and 11 base runners over 16 1/3 innings.

Chien-Ming Wang just keeps getting bounced around from team to team due to his struggles over the last few years. He has only made one start this season for Toronto, allowing 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 13 base runners over 7 1/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox. Wang is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in his last two starts against Texas, yielding 12 earned runs over 13 innings.

Texas is 36-11 (+21.4 Units) against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. Holland is 17-3 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 77-36 in their last 113 games following a loss. The Rangers are 12-3 in Hollands last 15 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Blue Jays are 47-98 in their last 145 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Take Texas Sunday.

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +135

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as an underdog to the Colorado Rockies Saturday. Colorado is without its best player in Troy Tulowitzki, who is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a rib injury.

Jonathan Pettibone is a much better starter than he's getting credit for here. The right-hander has gone 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA through 10 starts this season. Tyler Chatwood is getting too much respect from the books in this one. He is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.585 WHIP through three home starts this year.

Chatwood is 0-7 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Chatwood is 0-9 (-12.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. Take this 16-0 system in favor of Philadelphia straight to the bank today. Take the Phillies Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +160

The Kansas City Royals are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have won nine of their last 10 games overall to get to 32-33 on the season, and they are hungry for a win Saturday to get back to .500 finally.

Tampa Bay comes in struggling having lost five of its last six games overall. It has lost three in a row while scoring a combined 4 runs. Alex Cobb is getting way too much respect from the books in this one. He is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 6 earned runs and 10 base runners over 4 innings of an 8-10 loss to Boston.

Jeremy Guthrie remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 7-3 with a 3.60 ERA through 13 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three outings. Cobb is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last two starts against Kansas City, yielding 12 earned runs and 23 hits over 13 2/3 innings.

The Royals are 15-2 in Guthrie's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas City is 9-1 in its last 10 games overall. The Royals are 12-3 in Guthrie's last 15 starts as an underdog. The Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Royals Saturday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -119

After dropping four straight, including last night's 8-0 shutout at the hands of the Blue Jays, the Texas Rangers are highly motivated for a victory Saturday. I look for them to roll Toronto today to get back in the win column.

R.A. Dickey is simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. The knuckleballer has gone 5-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in his last three.

Toronto is 0-9 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Texas is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Rangers. Bet Texas Saturday.

20* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Rangers -128

The Texas Rangers represent my strongest release over the last 30 days in American League action between two teams from different divisions. After losing Game 1 by a final of 1-3 to the Toronto Blue Jays, I look for the Rangers to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2.

Texas will tee off on Toronto's Mark Buehrle, who is 2-4 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The left-hander has been at his worst on the road, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in six starts away from home in 2013.

Justin Grimm has been nothing short of dominant at home this season. The right-hander has gone 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four home starts, allowing just eight earned runs and one homer over 25 1/3 innings of work in Arlington.

The Blue Jays are 27-58 in their last 85 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 77-34 in their last 111 games following a loss. Texas is 4-1 in Grimm's last 5 starts overall. Bet the Rangers Friday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +1.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the Miami Heat. They realize they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want to win this series, so I look for them to give everything they have to get a victory in Game 4.

The Heat have been at their best when coming off a loss and needing a bounce-back win. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and 10th against Indian and Portland to find the last time that Miami has lost back-to-back games.

San Antonio simply caught fire in the second half and shot lights out in Game 3. In fact, the Spurs set an NBA Finals records with 16 made 3-pointers over their 32 attempts for a 50% clip. They aren't going to even come close to shooting that well again from distance.

Miami is 14-3 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. The Heat are 15-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Miami is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 games following a loss dating back to January 10th. Now that's resiliency folks. This team can turn is on when it needs to. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Mound Mismatch on San Francisco Giants -106

After dropping the first two games of this series to Pittsburgh, the San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep. With the edge they have on the mound, I certainly like their chances.

Despite a slow start, Matt Cain remains one of the best starters in the league. His 5.09 ERA simply doesn't match up with his solid 1.193 WHIP through 13 starts this season, which simply means that he has been unlucky more than anything.

Charlie Morton will be making his first start of the season for Pittsburgh, and he's getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. In five years in the big leagues, Morton has gone 23-45 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.557 WHIP.

Cain is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in nine career starts against Pittsburgh. Morton is 1-14 (-13.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the Giants Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles +101

The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value as a home underdog to the Boston Red Sox tonight. Baltimore is 37-29 on the season and it is once again overcoming expectations as this team is way better than it gets credit for.

Kevin Gausman has one of the best young arms in the game. While he has struggled in limited action on the road, he pitched a gem in his lone home start this season. Gausman allowed just one earned run and five base runners over six innings of a 4-2 victory against the potent Detroit Tigers on June 2nd.

Felix Doubront is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. The left-hander is 4-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.615 WHIP through 10 starts and one relief appearance in 2013. Doubront is also 2-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six road starts.

Boston is 6-19 (-16.8 Units) against the money line with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 10-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more this season. The Red Sox are 8-21 in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 38-13 in their last 51 games following a loss. Baltimore is 19-7 in its last 26 meetings with Boston. Roll with the Orioles Thursday.

20* Yankees/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on New York +116

The New York Yankees get the nod as a road underdog to the Oakland A's Wednesday. After dropping Game 1 of this series 4-6, I look for New York to bounce back in a big way in Game 2 tonight.

Phil Hughes gets the ball looking to continue his recent and road domination. Hughes is 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in six road starts this season, and 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in his last three starts.

Daniel Straily is no match for Hughes. He is 3-2 with a 4.67 ERA in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four home starts. In his last two starts against Oakland, Hughes has gone 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 15 innings.

New York is 27-14 (+11.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. The Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. New York is 5-1 in Hughes' last 6 starts vs. Athletics. Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Washington Nationals +160

You won't get the Washington Nationals at a much better price all season than the one we are getting them at tonight. After losing Game 1 of this series to fall to 31-32 on the season, the Nationals are clearly motivated to get back to .500 with a Game 2 victory Wednesday.

Jorge De La Rosa is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The left-hander has been fortunate to post a 3.38 ERA this season despite a sub-par 1.326 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He only has 48 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings, so opposing hitters are putting the ball in play frequently.

De La Rosa also hasn't had much success against Washington in the past. The left-hander has posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in five career starts against the Nationals.

Ross Ohlendorf will be making his first start of the season for the Nationals in this one. His teams are 5-1 in his six career starts against Colorado. The Rockies are 21-42 (-24.8 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Colorado is 7-15 in its last 22 games following a win. Take the Nationals Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +165

The San Francisco Giants are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a massive road underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll gladly back the defending world champs at this price Wednesday.

Francisco Liriano is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one due to his hot start in limited action. He has only made six starts this season, and there's no way he can sustain these numbers.

Liriano went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in 2009, 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA in 2010, 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA in 2011, and 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 2012. As you can see, he has posted a 5.09 ERA or worse in three of his last four seasons. He hasn't magically turned his career around in 2013.

Barry Zito has been decent for the Giants this season, going 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts. The left-hander has posted a 3.73 ERA in seven career starts against Pittsburgh. The Giants are 21-5 in Zito's last 26 starts. San Francisco is 14-3 in Zito's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 4-0 in Zito's last 4 starts vs. Pirates. Roll with San Francisco Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +147

The Seattle Mariners have no business being this heavily favored with Aaron Harang getting the ball. The Houston Astros clearly have the edge on the mound behind Bud Norris, and I'll back them at an excellent price because of it.

Norris has gone 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one career start against Seattle, which occurred on April 23rd in a 3-2 Houston victory.

Harang has been atrocious this season, going 2-6 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts. He is also 2-3 with a 5.68 ERA in five home starts. The right-hander has posted a 4.36 ERA in 26 career starts against Houston, and most of those came before he was past his prime.

Norris is 9-3 (+8.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is 8-17 (-16.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are 5-1 in Norris' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Houston Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -138

Zach Greinke simply does not lose at home. He is off to another solid start at home this season, going 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in four starts. The Dodgers are 4-0 in those four contests.

Ian Kennedy is having a down year for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The right-hander has gone 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in 12 starts, 1-3 with a 6.64 ERA in seven road starts, and 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three outings.

Greinke is 18-1 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 32-4 (+26.5 Units) against the money line in all home games over the last 3 seasons. Enough said. Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio -2

I have gone 2-0 in the Finals with the Spurs +5.5 in Game 1 and the Heat -5.5 in Game 2. As expected, the Heat bounced back in basically a must-win situation in Game 2 with a blowout victory as they simply wanted it more.

Now, returning home for Game 3, I look for the Spurs to make the proper adjustments and to continue their dominance in San Antonio. The Spurs are a ridiculous 41-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game.

It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Heat against the spread dating back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Every time they get a big win, they seem to come back with a poor effort their next game. After a loss, they tend to bounce back with a great effort.

In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system in support of San Antonio heading into Game 3.

I believe that Game 3 is where all that rest the Spurs received after sweeping the Grizzlies will pay off. Conversely, I feel that the grueling 7-game series the Heat faced against the Pacers will come into play. San Antonio will be the fresher team, and that will show in the 3rd and 4th quarters as it pulls away for a Game 3 victory. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +140

The Washington Nationals are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a big road underdog to the Colorado Rockies. While the Nationals are off to a slow start by their standards at 31-31, I have no doubt that this is still one of the best teams in the league.

While Dan Haren is off to a slow start as well, there's no question that he's at least as good as his opposing starter. Jhoulys Chacin has struggled as well, going 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA in 11 starts, including 2-2 with a 5.65 ERA in seven home starts.

Haren is 7-5 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 14 career starts against Colorado, while Chacin is 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in three career starts against Washington.

Washington is 16-4 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings over the last 3 seasons. Colorado is 44-90 (-40.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 3 seasons. The Rockies are 6-15 in their last 21 games following a win. Roll with the Nationals Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +150

The Kansas City Royals are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Detroit Tigers. They are playing their best baseball of the season coming into this one. They have won six straight overall and are playing with a ton of confidence right now.

Wade Davis has held his own in the past when facing Detroit. The right-hander has posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in four career starts against the Tigers.

Max Scherzer has posted a 3.84 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 14 career starts against Kansas City. He has faced the Royals once this year, allowing five earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 innings on April 24th.

Detroit is 1-10 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 2 runs or less this season. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 home games. Take the Royals Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels +114

After losing Game 1 of this series, and dropping three straight overall, the Los Angeles Angels come in highly motivated for a win tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. I like their chances of stopping the bleeding with the underrated Jason Vargas on the mound.

Vargas continues to outperform oddsmakers' expectations, going 5-3 with a 3.71 ERA through 12 starts this season. What I really like about the left-hander tonight is the fact that he is 2-2 with a miniscule 1.65 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore. He shut out the Orioles 4-0 on May 3rd in his last start against them.

Miguel Gonzalez is getting too much respect from the books in this one. The right-hander has gone 3-2 with a 4.05 ERA in 10 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.11 ERA in four home starts. He has just been fortunate to get solid run support to this point, but that won't happen against Vargas.

The Angels are 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 starts overall. The Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta Braves -128

The Atlanta Braves (39-24) should have no problem getting by the San Diego Padres (29-34) tonight given the edge they have on the mound in this one. Julio Teheran is finally starting to pitch like he was in spring training.

Teheran is 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The right-hander has gone 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 19 base runners over 21 1/3 innings while striking out 25 batters.

Jason Marquis is clearly overmatched in this one. He has gone 7-2 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 12 starts, including 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in his last three. In fact, Marquis is 3-5 with a monstrous 7.69 ERA and 1.792 WHIP in nine career starts against Atlanta.

Atlanta is 25-9 (+16.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 55-26 in their last 81 vs. a team with a losing record. The Padres are 8-21 in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Braves Monday.

15* AL Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +215

The Houston Astros are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as better than a 2-to-1 underdog to the Seattle Mariners (27-37). The Mariners are coming off a big series against the New York Yankees, setting them up for a letdown spot here.

Seattle managed just 7 total runs in their 4-game home stand against the Yankees. While Hisashi Iwakuma is having a stellar season, he's clearly overvalued here and is not likely to get much run support from his struggling offense.

Dallas Keuchel has been pitching very well of late for Houston, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last two starts while allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners over 13 innings in wins against the Orioles and Angels.

Iwakuma faced Houston on the road on April 23rd, giving up 3 runs and 9 base runners over 5 innings of a 2-3 loss. The Astros are 6-0 in Keuchel's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Houston is 4-1 in Keuchel's last 5 starts as an underdog.

This play falls into a system that is 47-16 (74.6%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against any team (SEATTLE) - after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less against opponent after getting shut out. Roll with the Astros Monday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -123

The Los Angeles Angels should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Baltimore Orioles with the edge they have on the mound. I look for Los Angeles to win this game in blowout fashion as a result.

Ace Jered Weaver gets the ball for Los Angeles tonight. The right-hander isn't getting the respect he deserve in this one due to being hurt for most of the season to this point. However, Weaver has made the most of it, going 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four starts.

He'll be up against Freddy Garcia, who is 2-3 with a 4.69 ERA through seven starts this season. Weaver is 6-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in nine career starts against Baltimore.

Weaver is 15-3 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 40-11 in Weaver's last 51 starts as a favorite. Los Angeles is 9-1 in Weaver's last 10 starts vs. AL East opponents. Bet the Angels Monday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -5.5

The Miami Heat in Game 2 represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA Finals. Knowing that they cannot afford to go down 0-2 with the next three games being played in San Antonio, the Heat will respond with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight.

Miami simply responds following a loss better than any other team in the league. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and January 10th to find the last time that the Heat lost back-to-back games this season.

I look for the Spurs to relax a little knowing that they have three home games coming up following this Game 2 showdown. They won't be able to match the intensity of Lebron James and company in this one.

The Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest. The Heat are 14-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +132

The Philadelphia Phillies have lost their last two games by a single run each to the Milwaukee Brewers to drop one game below .500. They will be motivated to get back to the break-even point with a Game 4 victory today to salvage the series.

Considering the Brewers have lost 26 of their last 36 games overall, I like the Phillies' chances in this one. Plus, I believe they have the edge on the mound, which is why they should not be the dog here.

Jonathan Pettibone has gone 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts this season. He'll be up against Kyle Lohse, who is 1-6 with a 4.39 ERA in 11 starts, including 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA in his last three. The Brewers are 1-6 in Lohse's last 7 starts overall.

Milwaukee is a woeful 1-10 in its last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies are 4-1 in Pettibone's last 5 starts. The Brewers are 0-4 in Lohse's last 4 starts as a favorite. Take the Phillies Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels +155

The Los Angeles Angels are showing some of their best value this season as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox Sunday. This is a much more evenly matched game than this line would indicate.

I really like that way that Joe Blanton has been coming on of late. The right-hander has posted a 2.95 ERA and 0.797 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 7 earned runs and 17 base runners over 21 1/3 innings.

Ryan Dempster has struggled all year for Boston, going 3-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 12 starts. In three starts against the Angels in 2012, Dempster went 0-2 with a monstrous 11.19 ERA and 2.341 WHIP. This is clearly one team he cannot figure out.

The Angels are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 4-0 in its last 4 road games with a total set of 9.0-10.5. The Red Sox are 1-4 in Dempster's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Boston is 8-19 in its last 27 home games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +142

The Texas Rangers (36-25) are showing perhaps their best value of the season Sunday as a big road underdog to the lowly Toronto Blue Jays (27-34). After losing the first two games of this series, there's no question that Texas will be motivated for a win in Game 3 to salvage it.

While Texas starter Justin Grimm hasn't been superb this season, he has posted better numbers than today's opposing starter. Grimm is 5-4 with a 5.13 ERA on the season, while Josh Johnson is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the year.

Texas is one of the best teams in the league when bouncing back from a defeat. In fact, the Rangers are 76-32 in their last 108 games following a loss. They are also 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Take the Rangers Sunday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -119

The Chicago Cubs should be a much heavier favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. I'll gladly back the Cubs at this price considering they will be starting one of the most underrated hurlers in the entire league.

Jeff Samardzija has been much better than his 3-6 record would indicate. The right-hander has posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 12 starts with 91 K's over 79 innings this season. Samardzija is 1-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three starts.

What has really caught my eye is how good this guy has been against today's opposition. Samardzija is 3-1 with a miniscule 0.84 ERA and 0.438 WHIP in four career starts against Pittsburgh. He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 14 base runners over 32 innings in those four starts.

A.J. Burnett is 1-13 (-12.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less since 1997. His teams are losing 2.2 to 5.7 in this spot, or by 3.5 runs/game. Bet the Cubs Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +189

The Miami Marlins get the call today as a massive 2-to-1 road underdog to the New York Mets. New York doesn't have a big edge on the mound like this line would indicate. In fact, I believe the Marlins have the edge here, which is why I'm backing them at an excellent price.

Jose Fernandez is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 3-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 11 starts this season with 60 strikeouts over 59 1/3 innings. While Matt Harvey has posted solid numbers as well, he sports a 4.19 ERA and 1.552 WHIP in his last three starts and is showing signs of slowing down.

What I really like about this pitching matchup is the head-to-head numbers these two have posted against their opposition in 2013. Fernandez is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in three starts against New York this year, while Harvey is 0-0 with a 4.36 ERA and 2.033 WHIP in two starts against Miami this season.

New York is 10-24 (-16.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Miami is 8-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 4-1 in Fernandez's last 5 starts vs. National League East foes. The Mets are 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the Marlins Saturday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -109

The Los Angeles Angels are coming around of late having won three of their last four games coming in. They have been helped by the addition of Yaseil Puig to the lineup. He has three homers and nine RBIs in his last four games in place of the injured Matt Kemp.

While I love what Puig is doing right now, I really like the Dodgers tonight due to their edge on the mound. Hyun-Jin Ryu has gone 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in five home starts.

Paul Maholm is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. The left-hander has been at his worst on the road, going 3-3 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in seven starts away from home. Maholm is also 2-5 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 10 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 starts as a favorite. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Ryu's last 4 home starts. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Los Angeles. Roll with the Dodgers Friday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants +120

The San Francisco Giants are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. San Francisco comes in rested after having Thursday off, while Arizona finished a 4-game series with St. Louis yesterday.

The reason the Giants are undervalued tonight is because Matt Cain has not been up to par this season. But he's been more unlucky than anything as he has posted a 5.45 ERA despite a 1.211 WHIP through 12 starts this year. With that kind of WHIP, he should have closer to a 3.00 ERA on the season.

Pat Corbin is overvalued due to a fast start this season. He has shown signs of tiring of late, giving up 8 runs, 7 earned, over 12 innings in his last two starts against the lowly Cubs and Padres. I look for the Giants to get after him tonight.

Cain is 13-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 29 career starts against Arizona. Corbin is 2-1 with a 4.45 ERA in five career starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 50-26 (+24.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. San Francisco is 6-1 in Cain's last 7 starts. The Giants are 12-4 in Cain's last 16 starts as a road underdog. Bet the Giants Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +206

The Houston Astros come in playing their best baseball of the season, yet they are still being treated like one of the worst teams in baseball. In fact, Houston has won seven of its last nine games overall, while Kansas City has lost 22 of its last 30 games.

Jordan Lyles is not getting the respect he deserves here. Lyles has gone 3-1 with a 4.30 ERA in seven starts this season, 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts. Lyles is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.769 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City.

One of those starts came against tonight's starter in James Shield and the Royals on May 22nd of this year. Lyles allowed one earned run over six innings to get the win in a 3-1 victory over the Royals despite being a +190 underdog.

The Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Houston is 4-1 in Lyles' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Kansas City is 1-5 in Shields' last 6 starts. The Royals are 0-4 in Shields' last 4 starts as a favorite. Take the Astros Friday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -105

Zach Greinke simply does not lose at home. I'll gladly back Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers at this price Thursday because of it.

Greinke has gone 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in three home starts this season. He'll be up against Tim Hudson, who is 1-4 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in six road starts this season for Atlanta.

Greinke is 31-4 (+25.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 17-1 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Enough said. Roll with the Dodgers Thursday.

Note - I returned on a flight from vacation Thursday morning which is why this baseball play has been released later than it normally would be.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

The most likely game for a road team to steal in the playoffs is Game 1 of a series before adjustments are made. While I believe the Spurs will win Game 1 tonight, I'm going to take the points for some insurance.

San Antonio matches up with the Miami Heat as well as anyone in the league. Greg Popovich is a tremendous head coach, and he'll be sure to double and triple team Lebron James at times to not let him beat them. Miami will have to hit jump shots in Game 1 if it wants any chance to win tonight.

After sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs come into this game well-rested and prepared to face Miami. Meanwhile, the Heat just got done with a grueling 7-game series with the Pacers.

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS after 2 consecutive division games over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +130

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing solid value as a nice-sized road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. They come in playing some of their best baseball of the season having won four straight while scoring at least 6 runs in each contest to get back to .500 on the season at 30-30.

Milwaukee has lost nine of its last 12 coming in and it is clearly distracted due to the Ryan Braun ordeal. Plus, Wily Peralta has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Peralta is 4-6 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 7.09 ERA and 1.939 WHIP in seven home starts.

Milwaukee is 2-14 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. The Brewers are 8-25 in their last 33 overall. The Brewers are 0-9 in their last 9 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Phillies Thursday.

Note - I returned on a flight from vacation Thursday morning which is why this baseball play has been released later than it normally would be.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+109)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will beat the San Diego Padres by 2-plus runs tonight. As a result, I'll back them on the Run Line and look to earn more bang for our buck.

The Dodgers have a massive edge on the mound in this one with Clayton Kershaw over Jason Marquis. The former Cy Young winner has gone 5-3 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.916 WHIP through 12 starts this season.

Marquis is 6-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.492 WHIP through 11 starts this season for the Padres. Kershaw is 8-4 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 18 career starts against San Diego.

Kershaw is 17-2 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are winning in this spot by 2.6 runs/game. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +138

The Chicago White Sox are showing awesome value as a nice-sized road underdog to the Seattle Mariners Tuesday. Rarely will you ever get Jake Peavy at this kind of price, and we'll take advantage tonight.

Peavy has gone 6-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 10 starts with 66 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. He'll be up against Felix Hernandez, who is 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA in his last three starts.

Peavy is 26-11 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. Hernandez is 3-10 (-11.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the White Sox Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +159

This is a much more evenly-matched game than the line would indicate. That's why I'm backing Colorado at a great price Tuesday to beat the Cincinnati Reds.

Homer Bailey is 3-4 with a 3.84 ERA on the season, and he's getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. Juan Nicasio has posted a 3.94 ERA over his last three starts and he's improving as the season progresses.

Bailey is 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in five career starts against Colorado. The Reds are 0-4 in Baileys last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. Take the Rockies Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays +125

Getting Matt Moore at this price is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Rays at an excellent price today.

Moore is 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.081 WHIP through 11 starts this season. Moore is also 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in his last three starts.

Moore has faced the Yankees one in his career, going 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA in that lone start against New York.

Tampa is 25-12 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Sanchez is 6-17 (-13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have been an extremely resilient team. They came together with a 91-77 victory in Game 6 in the face of elimination. While the Pacers are a team coming together heading into Game 7, the Heat seem to be falling apart at the seams.

Dwyane Wade wants a bigger role. Chris Bosh wants a bigger role. This has led to some turmoil within their locker room, and I simply like the mindset of the Pacers better heading into this Game 7. Miami has all of the pressure on its shoulders considering it is the favorite to win the title.

Indiana comes in as the underdog with almost no pressure on its shoulders. David West had a 103-degree temperature in Game 6, but he played through it and scored 11 points while grabbing 14 very important rebounds. The team rallied around him, and once again this moment has brought them closer together.

"We've got to do a good job of making sure me and Chris have our opportunities to succeed throughout the game," Wade said. Wade has scored a total of 20 points the past two games. He was 3 of 11 for 10 points in Game 6.

Bosh averaged 16.3 points on 11 shots in the series' first three games. In the three games since, he's averaging just 6.3 points on seven shots a game. Bosh was 1-of-8 shooting for just five points in Saturday's loss.

"We've got guys individually who want to play better," Wade said. "But we've got to try to help each other out in this locker room and not leave it up to the individual to self-will it."

"I mean, we can state the obvious; they're both struggling," Lebron James said of Wade and Bosh. "When you're struggling, the best thing to get is a layup or a dunk. [Wade] missed a couple of them ... Chris is struggling with his shot and him hurting his ankle didn't help."

Indiana is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more this season. Miami is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after playing a road game this season. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bet the Pacers in Game 7 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +145

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing their best value of the season as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Trevor Cahill and the Diamondbacks are way undervalued heading into this one. Cahilll has posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.167 WHIP through 11 starts this season.

Cahill has posted a 3.06 ERA and 0.962 WHIP through three starts against St. Louis in his career. Lance Lynn is having a solid season for the Cardinals, but he has posted just a 4.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona.

Arizona is 29-10 (+17.9 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Cahill is 15-8 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Bet Arizona Monday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Boston +104

The Boston Red Sox are showing solid value as a road underdog to the New York Yankees tonight. With their best starter on the mound, I'll gladly back the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz to win Game 3 and the series in this huge rivalry.

Buchholz has been nothing short of spectacular this season, going 7-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.046 WHIP through 10 starts. The Red Sox are 9-1 in those 10 contest. Buchholz has been at his best on the road, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four starts away from home, allowing 4 earned runs over 28 innings.

Buchholz squared off against Kuroda earlier this season on April 3rd. Buchholz allowed 1 earned run over 7 innings, while Hiroki Kuroda allowed 2 earned runs and 5 base runners in 1 1/3 innings before being hit by a line drive. The Red Sox won that contest 7-4 at New York.

The Red Sox are 42-13 in Buchholz's last 55 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall. The Red Sox are 7-0 in Buchholz's last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet Boston Sunday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers are not about to give in and let Miami take this series in six games. I look for the Pacers to send this series to Game 7 with a victory tonight to continue their home dominance.

Indiana is 37-12 at home this season. It is winning by 7.9 points/game at home this season. The Pacers have only lost one game at home in the playoffs, going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS this postseason. They simply play with a lot of confidence at home.

The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. These two trends show how each team has responded recently following a win/loss. Indiana responds in Game 6 tonight. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +130

The Washington Nationals get the nod tonight as a big road underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight. They are showing awesome value in this one with Gio Gonzalez on the mound.

Gonzalez has put together another solid season to this point, going 3-3 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.253 WHIP through 11 starts. He'll be up against Tim Hudson, who is 4-4 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Hudson is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts as well.

Gonzalez is 24-9 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Gonzalez is 32-13 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Nationals Saturday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +125

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing awesome value today as a big road underdog to the Colorado Rockies. Getting Zach Greinke at this price is simply a gift from oddsmakers.

While Greinke is off to a slow start this season due to a fluke injury, there's no question he's still one of the best starters in the league, though he's not getting treated like it. He is clearly the better starter in this one.

Jhoulys Chacin is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander has struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 6.27 ERA in his last three starts. Chacin is also 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA ERA in five home starts this year.

Greinke is 33-11 (+18.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 48-22 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -105

Getting Tampa Bay ace Matt Moore at this kind of price is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. That's especially the case considering the Rays are rolling right now having won five straight games coming in. They have scored 5 runs or more in four of the five victories.

Moore is having a Cy Young-caliber season to this point. He has not lost, going 8-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.098 WHIP through 10 starts in 2013. Moore is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last two starts against the Indians.

Corey Kluber has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Cleveland's starter is 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA through six starts in 2013. He is also 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in two home starts this year.

The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 11-1 in Moore's last 12 starts overall. The Indians are 1-8 in Kluber's last 9 home starts. The Indians are 0-6 in Kluber's last 6 starts as a home underdog. Roll with the Rays Friday.

15* MLB Friday Mound Mismatch on Los Angeles Dodgers -137

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value as a mediocre favorite against the Colorado Rockies tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound in this one, I look for the Dodgers to roll to a blowout road victory in this one.

Former Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw gets the ball for the Dodgers. He's having another Cy Young-caliber season, going 5-3 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.872 WHIP through 11 starts. Kershaw pitched 8 shutout innings of an 8-0 victory in his last start against Colorado.

Jon Garland is clearly washed up and far past his prime. He wouldn't start for more than half the teams in this league, but Colorado's rotation is so bad that it has a spot for him. Garland is 3-6 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.614 WHIP through 10 starts this season.

Colorado is 16-46 (-28.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 23-8 in Kershaw's last 31 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Los Angeles is 40-17 in Kershaw's last 57 starts as a favorite. Take the Dodgers Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -106

Rarely ever will you get to back Washington ace Stephen Strasburg at even near even money. I'll take advantage Friday and back Strasburg and the Nationals as they look to bounce back following a two-game losing streak heading in.

Strasburg has been dominant once again in 2013. He has posted a 2.49 ERA and 1.065 WHIP with 71 K's over 72 1/3 innings in 11 starts this season. Strasburg is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Julio Teheran is the worst starter in the Braves' rotation, and he should not be getting this much respect here. Teheran has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.331 WHIP through nine starts in 2013. He also sports a 4.77 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in two career starts against Washington.

Washington is 26-11 (+12.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 16-5 in Strasburg's last 21 starts as a road favorite. Atlanta is 1-5 in its last 6 games as an underdog. Bet the Nationals Friday.